Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Tuesday NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -10

The Key: Head coach Nate Oats brings back 4 of his top 6 scorers from last year led by John Petty Jr. and Jaden Shackelford, who combined for 30 PPG and 11 RPG last year.  After crushing Jacksonville State 81-57 as 20.5-point favorites, the Crimson Tide fell apart against Stanford yesterday with a 64-82 loss.  They shot terrible at 35.8% from the field and gave up 51.7%.  But their defense has been good at forcing turnovers as they have forced 42 in the first 2 games.  And they will be looking to bounce back in a big way today against a UNLV team that is terrible.  UNLV lost 78-91 as a 12.5-point favorite to Montana State in their opener and were routed 51-78 as a 13-point dog to North Carolina yesterday.  They lost basically everyone other than Bryce Hamilton from last season.  They have committed 35 turnovers in 2 games, so they are sure to not handle the pressure of Alabama very well.  Once UNC turned up the pressure yesterday they crumbled.  The Rebels are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  The Crimson Tide are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games off a double-digit home loss.  Take Alabama.

7* Seahawks/Eagles NFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 49

The Key: It’s going to be over 60 degrees with minimal winds in Philadelphia Monday.  This total is too low for a Seattle team that has one of the best offenses in the NFL but also one of the worst defenses.  The Seahawks score 31.8 PPG on offense but give up 28.7 PPG and 435 YPG on defense.  They have the single worst defense in the NFL from a yardage standpoint.  And the Eagles have gotten a lot healthier offensively in recent weeks with several key playmakers returning for Carson Wentz.  He should have one of his best games of the season against this Seattle defense to keep pace with Russell Wilson and company. And the Seahawks get back RB Chris Carson this week, adding to their dynamic offense.  Take the OVER.

6* UNC/UNLV NCAAB *CA$H COW* on North Carolina -12

The Key: Big red flag on UNLV losing outright 78-91 as 12.5-point favorites over Montana State in their opener.  They gave up 55.6% shooting in the loss.  They lost basically everyone other than Bryce Hamilton from last season.  And he even had 27 points and they still lost by 13.  North Carolina won 79-60 over College of Charleston in the opener to cover as 17.5-point favorites.  They have some stud freshmen guards in Love and Davis, who combined for 28 points in the win.  And Roy Williams believes this Tar Heels team will be a much better shooting team than last year, although it didn’t show in the opener as they won by 19 despite shooting just 39.4% from the field and 4 for 18 (22.2%) from 3-point range.  UNLV lost by 13 despite shooting 11 for 25 (44%) from 3-point range.  Bets on neutral court teams who covered as a double-digit favorite and had a losing record last season are 29-9 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take North Carolina.

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans +3

The Key: The Tennessee Titans are looking to avenge their 17-34 loss to the Colts just a two weeks ago.  They led that game 17-13 before a shanked punt and a blocked punt return TD directly led to 14 points for the Colts on special teams mistakes.  That was really a 3-point game that turned into a 17-point loss and looks worse than it was.  But the Titans rebounded with a dominant 30-24 win in Baltimore last week in which they gained 423 yards and held the Ravens to just 306 yards.  Derrick Henry became the league’s first 1,000-yard rusher last week, and his job just got a lot easier here with the Colts missing arguably their most important player on defense in DeForest Buckner due to Covid-19.  In fact several players are out for the Colts due to Covid-19, including starting RB Jonathan Taylor.  The Titans are getting healthy at the right time and will be in much better shape to beat the Colts than they were 2 weeks ago.  Philip Rivers is nursing a toe injury, and he’ll be without starting C Ryan Kelly.  NFL teams that won last week after trailing by 11-plus at halftime are 26-38-1 SU & 19-45-1 ATS in their last 65 tries.  The Colts came back from 14 down to beat the Packers last week and will be fatigued.  They also benefited from 4 turnovers by the Packers, which is uncharacteristic for Aaron Rodgers and company.  The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Take Tennessee.

6* Cardinals/Patriots Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on OVER 49

The Key: It’s going to be good weather in New England for this time of year.  It is expected to be 50 degree temps and little to no wind.  The Cardinals have scored 30 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games overall.  But they’ve also allowed 28 or more points in each of their last 4 contests.  The Patriots have yielded 24 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games overall.  But their offense has been much better as of late with 20 or more points in 4 straight.  Cam Newton threw for 349 yards on the Texans last week and should be able to keep pace with Kyler Murray in a shootout.  The OVER is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 November games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games as a home underdog.  Take the OVER.

6* Chargers/Bills AFC *CA$H COW* on OVER 52.5

The Key: The OVER is 7-0 in Chargers last 7 games overall with at least 57 combined points scored in 6 of those and an average of 60.5 PPG.  Their defense has yielded 28 or more points in all 7 games.  And the Bills will hang a big number on them here after averaging 37 PPG in their last 2 contests.  Both teams are pass-happy which will lead to more clock stoppages as the Chargers are 2nd in the NFL in passing offense while the Bills are 3rd.  And the weather will be good for an OVER with nearly 50 degree temps in Buffalo and little wind today.  Take the OVER.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Arkansas-Pine Bluff +33.5

The Key: I like that Arkansas-Pine Bluff already has 2 games under its belt while Iowa State will be playing its 1st game of the season here.  Pine Bluff lost by 42 to Marquette but by just 34 to 7th-ranked Wisconsin last time.  And now they are getting 33.5 points from an Iowa State team that went 12-20 last season and returns only 2 starters and one double-digit scorer in Rasir Bolton.  The Cyclones lost their best player in Tyrese Haliburton, who was a lottery pick of the Sacramento Kings.  They were that bad with him, and they are going to be even worse without him.  Take Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

6* Nevada/Hawaii Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Nevada -7

The Key: I’ve backed Nevada 4 times already this season and am 4-0 with them.  They delivered against San Diego State last week, and they’ll deliver again this week against Hawaii.  They’ll be hungry to avenge a fluky 54-3 upset loss to Hawaii last year.  And these teams have already played the same 3 teams this year that shows Nevada is by far the superior team.  Nevada is 3-0 against Wyoming, New Mexico and San Diego State and has outscored them by a total of 15 points.  Hawaii is 1-2 against those same 3 teams and has been outscored by 42 points total.  Hawaii hasn’t had much of a home-field advantage at all in going 11-27-1 ATS in its last 39 home games.  Take Nevada.

6* LSU/Texas A&M SEC *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M -14

The Key: The Texas A&M Aggies have a legit shot to make the 4-team playoff if they win out.  They are 5-1 this year with their only loss on the road to Alabama.  They have a win over Florida, a fellow playoff contender.  And they are going to need some style points the rest the way.  That’s why I’m not worried about laying 14 points here with the Aggies Saturday against LSU.  The Aggies have had the last 2 weeks off so they’ll be fresh and ready.  LSU played last week and was fortunate to beat Arkansas 27-24.  They ran 91 plays for only 419 yards against Arkansas, an average of just 4.6 YPP.  Arkansas ran just 53 plays for 443 yards against LSU, an average of 8.4 YPP.  The Tigers are now giving up 472.7 YPG and 7.3 YPP defensively this year.  Texas A&M only allows 338.2 YPG and 5.6 YPP defensively.  That’s where the difference lies between these two teams.  Plus Texas A&M has the better offense at 6.7 YPP compared to 5.9 YPP for LSU.  And Texas A&M has played the tougher schedule.  The Aggies are 7-0 ATS after outrushing their last opponents by 150 or more yards over the last 3 years.  Take Texas A&M.

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on Louisville/Boston College OVER 54.5

The Key: This total is too low Saturday for 2 good passing offenses like Louisville and Boston College.  Boston College has a great freshman QB in Jurkovec who is completing 60% for 2,355 yards with 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions this year.  The Eagles are averaging 262 PYPG.  Cunningham is completing 64% for 2,126 yards with 16 TD and 11 INT this year.  The Cardinals average 243 PYPG and 8.4 YPA.  But they also have a great rushing attack to compliment it with 194 RPYG and 5.2 YPA.  Both defenses are sub par as Louisville yields 26.4 PPG and BC gives up 26.9 PPG.  Last year these teams played in an absolute shootout with Louisville winning 41-39 for 80 combined points.  And that has been the norm in this series.  Each of the last 4 matchups have seen 58 or more combined points and 6 of the last 7 have seen 57 or more.  The OVER is 9-1 in Eagles last 10 games as a home favorite.  The OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games off a home win.  The OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games off an ATS win.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 matchups.  Take the OVER.

7* NCAAF Game of the Year on Louisiana-Monroe +28.5

The Key: Louisiana-Lafayette had 33 players on coronavirus protocol last week and had their game cancelled.  Head coach Billy Napier came down with it as well and hasn’t been able to be at practice all week.  This team should not be laying 28.5 points in a rivalry game against Louisiana-Monroe.  They haven’t won a single game by more than 28 points this year, and Monroe has only 2 losses by more than 25 points this year.  6 of the last 7 matchups were decided by a single score, including only a 31-30 win by Louisiana last year as a 20.5-point favorite.  And Louisiana has their huge game with Appalachian State on deck next week so this just screams flat spot for them this week.  The dog is 16-3-1 ATS in the last 20 matchups.  Take Louisiana-Monroe.

6* Saturday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Saint Louis -2.5

The Key: The Saint Louis Billikens returned all 5 starters this year and each of their top 8 scorers from a team that won 23 games last year.  Senior Jordan Goodwin averaged 15.4 PPG and 10.4 RPG as a junior last season.  Javonte Perkins averaged 15 PPG.  And the Billikens got off to a great start this year with an 89-52 win over SIU-Edwardsville as 24.5-point favorites.  That gives them a common opponent with rebuilding LSU.  LSU only beat SIU-Edwardsville 94-81 as a 30-point favorite.  So Saint Louis beat the same team by 37 points that LSU only beat by 13.  The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  The Billikens are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games against a team with a winning record.  The Billikens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Saturday games.  Take Saint Louis.

6* Maryland/Indiana Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Maryland +12

The Key: The Maryland Terrapins bounced back from their ugly loss to Northwestern with two shocking upsets of Minnesota as a 17.5-point underdog and Penn State as a 27.5-point underdog.  Tualia Tagovailoa, the brother of Miami Dolphins QB Too Tagovailoa, has lived up to the hype the past 2 games.  He has thrown for a combined 676 yards with 6 touchdowns and only 1 interception in those 2 victories.  And this offense should do what it wants against an Indiana defense that gave up 42 points and 607 yards to Ohio State last week.  That makes this a letdown spot for the Hoosiers after playing Ohio State and with Wisconsin on deck next week.  The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS this season and oddsmakers are giving them too much respect this week now as a double-digit favorite over a live underdog like Maryland.  Each of the last 4 matchups between these teams were decided by 6 points or fewer and I could easily see that happening for a 5th straight year here.  Take Maryland.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon State +14

The Key: The Oregon State Beavers are a team on the rise in the Pac-12.  They went 5-7 last year but had 3 losses by 3 points or fewer.  And this year they brought back 14 starters.  They are just 1-2, but the losses came by 10 points to Washington State and only by 6 to Washington.  They beat Cal last week and believe they are good enough to beat Oregon.  I like the price here on Oregon State catching 14 points considering they only lost by 14 to a much better Oregon team last year.  This Oregon team is 3-0 but not as good as last year.  They barely got by UCLA 38-35 last week as 18.5-point favorites and were outgained by the Bruins in the win.  The Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  The Beavers are 7-0 in their last 7 home games following a home game.  Take Oregon State.

6* SDSU/St. Mary’s NCAAB *CA$H COW* on South Dakota State -1.5

The Key: South Dakota State went 22-10 last year and now returns all 5 starters.  They return Conference Player of the Year Douglas Wilson, who averages 18.7 PPG and 6.4 RPG last year.  He and fellow big man Matt Dentlinger combined to shoot 62.8% from the field.  Dentlinger averaged 12.2 PPG and 6.0 RPG.  Sophomores Alex Arians and David Wingett combined for 17.4 PPG and 11.3 RPG last year while both shooting at least 35% from 3-point range.  Noah Freidel averaged 12.2 PPG and shot 39.5% from 3 and 85.2% from he line.  And they have good depth with Baylor Sheierman (6.0 PPG) and Tray Buchanan (6.3 PPG).  They gave WVU a game in their opener in a 71-79 loss as 11.5-point dogs.  And they came back and crushed Utah State 83-59 as 2.5-point dogs.  Now they’re basically a pick ‘em here against a Saint Mary’s team that had to reload in the offseason.  St. Mary’s lost 56-73 to Memphis in their opener and that’s a Memphis team that went on to lose to Western Kentucky yesterday.  Then they were fortunate to win in comeback fashion 66-64 over Northern Iowa yesterday.  South Dakota State is the better team here and should be a bigger favorite.  The Jackrabbits are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  The Gaels are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 neutral site games as a dog.  Take South Dakota State.

6* Seton Hall/Louisville NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Louisville -5

The Key: Louisville won 24 games with only 7 losses last year under Chris Mack and he has a lot of talent back this year.  Sophomore PG David Johnson and sophomore forward Samuell Williamson are studs.  The Cardinals crushed Evansville 79-44 as 21-point favorites in their opener.  They had 3 players in double-figures led by 18 from Carlik Jones and 17 from Williamson.  Johnson dished out 5 assists and they finished with 19 assists as a team.  Seton Hall lost Big East Player of the Year Myles Powell and Big East Defensive Player of the Year Romaro Gill from last year’s team.  They also lost leading assist many Quincy McKnight, who averaged 11.9 PPG and 5.4 APG last year.  This is a rebuilding year for the Pirates and it will show here in their opener against Louisville.  Mack is 12-3 ATS off a win by 30 points or more as a head coach.  Mack is 29-13 ATS in home games after allowing 60 points or fewer as a head coach.  The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take Louisville.

6* Washington/Dallas NFC East *CA$H COW* on Washington +3

The Key: The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  The Washington Football Team is clearly better than Dallas and proved it a few weeks back in a 25-3 victory over the Cowboys, who started Andy Dalton in that game.  They outgained the Cowboys by 255 yards and held them to just 142 yards in the win.  Washington has now outgained 5 straight opponents by an average of 110 YPG.  They have an elite defense and that is going to be the difference in this game.  Alex Smith can manage the offense and has shown he can move the ball down the field when he needs to as he has thrown for nearly 900 yards in the past 3 games.  The Cowboys go from being 14-point dogs to the Steelers to 7-point dogs to the Vikings to now 3-point favorites this week.  I cashed in the Cowboys as my NFC Game of the Year last week over Minnesota, but this is too big of an adjustment, and now it’s time to go against them this week.  The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites.  Take Washington.

6* Gonzaga/Kansas NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Kansas +4

The Key: The Kansas Jayhawks were well on their way to the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament last year with a 28-3 record.  They have 3 starters back from that team in senior guard Marcus Garrett and juniors David McCormack and guard Ochai Agbaji.  The backcourt newcomers include junior college transfer Tyon Grant-Foster and blue-chip prospect Bryce Thompson, whose father played for Bill Self at Tulsa.  Gonzaga returns just 2 starters and I don’t believe the Zags should be favored here.  The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  The Jayhawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  Take Kansas.

7* NCAAB Dog of the Week on South Dakota State +10.5

The Key: South Dakota State went 22-10 last year and now returns all 5 starters.  They return Conference Player of the Year Douglas Wilson, who averages 18.7 PPG and 6.4 RPG last year.  He and fellow big man Matt Dentlinger combined to shoot 62.8% from the field.  Dentlinger averaged 12.2 PPG and 6.0 RPG.  Sophomores Alex Arians and David Wingett combined for 17.4 PPG and 11.3 RPG last year while both shooting at least 35% from 3-point range.  Noah Freidel averaged 12.2 PPG and shot 39.5% from 3 and 85.2% from he line.  And they have good depth with Baylor Sheierman (6.0 PPG) and Tray Buchanan (6.3 PPG).  The Jackrabbits are live underdogs tonight, and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a dog.  Take South Dakota State.

6* Wednesday NCAAB *BLOWOUT* on Houston -22

The Key: The Houston Cougars finished 24-8 last year a season after making it to the 2nd weekend of the NCAA Tournament.  Head coach Kelvin Sampson has really found a home here in Houston.  The Cougars have won 20-plus games in each of the past 5 seasons and have been ranked for 30 weeks the past 3 seasons with 3 Top 25 finishes.  The Cougars have 4 returning starters and 7 lettermen back so this is a deep, experienced roster.  Take Houston.

7* Rams/Bucs MNF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 47

The Key: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are rolling offensively this season.  They are scoring 29.6 PPG on the year and coming off a 46-point, 544-yard effort against the Panthers last week in which they did not have to punt once.  The Rams will offer more resistance defensively than the Panthers did, but the Bucs are going to get their points.  And Jared Goff and company are going to have to try and keep up.  The Rams have actually been their best offensively on the road this year.  They are scoring 26.4 PPG and averaging 427.6 YPG on the highway.  Bets on the OVER on any team where the total is 42.5 to 49 a good passing team (6.7-7.3 YPA) against a good passing defense (5.3-5.9 YPA) after 8 or more games after gaining 8 or more YPA last game are 29-7 since 1983.  The OVER is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games as underdogs.  The OVER is 6-1 in Bucs last 7 games as home favorites.  It’s expected to be 72 degrees with less than 10 MPH winds Monday night in Tampa Bay.  Take the OVER.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Dallas Cowboys +7.5

The Key: The Cowboys have been much more competitive in their last 2 games against the Eagles and Steelers.  And now they have a bye week to get ready for the Minnesota Vikings.  They still have a shot to win the NFC East because the division has been so poor, so look for them to be revived off their bye week.  The Vikings are on a short week after playing the Bears Monday night.  So the situation really favors the Cowboys, and I like the price with them catching more than a touchdown.  There’s a good chance Andy Dalton returns at quarterback and either way they’ll be fine as Garrett Gilbert played well against the Steelers.  Bets against home favorites after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning percentage between 40% and 49% on the season are 24-5 ATS since 1983.  Take Dallas.

6* Packers/Colts Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Green Bay +3

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Packers as road underdogs to the Indianapolis Colts.  They are coming off a shaky performance against the Jaguars that looked closer than it really was.  The Packers only won 24-20 despite outgaining the Jaguars by 135 yards.  The Colts are also coming off a misleading 34-17 win over the Titans last week in which they trailed at halftime, but they got a shanked punt and a blocked punt return TD that set up 2 quick scores in the 2nd half.  I’ll take Aaron Rodgers over Philip Rivers all day.  And Rodgers gets one of his top weapons back this week in Alan Lazard from an abdominal injury.  Bets against home favorites after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game against an opponent that has gained 7 or more passing yards per attempt in 3 straight games are 27-7 ATS over the last 10 years.  The Packers are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games off an ATS loss.  Take Green Bay.

6* Dolphins/Broncos AFC *CA$H COW* on Miami -3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  This team just keeps flying under the radar and hasn’t missed a beat with Tua at quarterback.  They’ve beaten 2 of the better teams in the NFL in the Cardinals and Rams with Tua while also making easy work of the Chargers last week.  And now they face a struggling Denver Broncos team that has trailed by 21 or more points in 4 straight games coming in.  The Broncos have issues at quarterback and on defense.  Drew Lock has been a bust and a turnover machine, and their defense has yielded 36 PPG in their last 4 contests.  The Broncos have yielded 26 or more points in 7 of their last 8 games overall.  Bets on any team like Miami that committed 1 or fewer turnovers last game against a team that had a turnover margin of -3 or worse last game are 72-37 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Miami.

6* AFC *Total* Annihilator on Jets/Chargers OVER 46.5

The Key: The Chargers are an OVER bettors’ dream.  They are 6-0 OVER in their last 6 games overall and all 6 games have seen 50 or more combined points and an average of 60.3 PPG.  This 46.5-point total is just too low here.  The Jets scored 27 points against the Patriots and now have a bye week to game plan for the Chargers.  The Chargers have allowed 29 or more points in each of their last 6 contests.   Bets on the OVER on any team that has lost 3 of their last 4 games, in a game involving 2 terrible teams that win 25% or less of their games on the season are 53-23 over the last 10 years.  The Jets are 12-4 OVER in in their last 16 games against a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last 6 games against a poor pass defense that allows a completion percentage of 61% or worse.  Take the OVER.

6* NFL Non-Conference *Total* Annihilator on Bengals/Washington OVER 46.5

The Key: Sunday’s forecast looks ripe for scoring in Washington with nearly 60 degree temps and almost zero wind.  Washington has gotten its offense going behind Alex Smith, who has had 2 straight 300-yard games and a total of 715 passing yards in his last 2 contests.  And the Bengals don’t offer much resistance defensively as they give up 27.8 PPG this year.  The Bengals have scored 30 or more points in 4 of their last 8 games and Joe Burrow is having a great rookie season.  The OVER is 7-1 in Bengals last 8 games off a loss.  Bets on the OVER on any team that has lost 3 of their last 4 games, in a game involving 2 terrible teams that win 25% or less of their games on the season are 53-23 over the last 10 years.  Take the OVER.

6* Liberty/NC State Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty +5.5

The Key: The Liberty Flames are a legit 7-0 team and Hugh Freeze might be the single most underrated head coach in the country.  Freeze is now 60-35 ATS as a head coach taking back to his time at Ole Miss after opening up 6-1 ATS this season.  The Flames are outgaining opponents by nearly 200 YPG this year and just upset Virginia Tech in ACC play a few weeks back.  And now they step down in competition here against NC State and one again find themselves as dogs when they should be favorites.  Liberty QB Malik Willis is one of the best QB’s in the country.  He is completing 67.8% with 15 TD’s and only 1 INT along with 700 rushing yards, 9 TD and 7.1 YPR on the ground.  He leads a balanced offensive attack that averages 255 RYPG and 255 PYPG.  That’s bad news for an NC State defense that yields 33.9 PPG, 456.5 YPG and 178 RYPG.  Dave Doeren is 0-8 ATS against good rushing teams that average 230 or more RYPG as the coach of NC State.  The Wolfpack are 0-8 ATS against good passing teams that average 8 YPA or more over the last 2 years.  NC State is 0-6 ATS off a conference home win over the last 3 years.  Take Liberty.

7* NCAAF Upset Game of the Year on Nevada ML +105

The Key: I’ve backed Nevada 3 times already this season and am 3-0 with them.  Fortunately I stayed off them last time out when they didn’t cover against New Mexico.  But I’m back on them again this week at a great price when they should not be home underdogs to San Diego State.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 this season and about to improve to 5-0 here against a SDSU team that has a bad loss to San Jose State already, and 3 easy wins over terrible teams in UNL, Utah Stat and Hawaii.  This is an experience Nevada team that returned 17 starters this year and Jay Norvell has coached them up well.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home underdogs.  They have won their last 2 meetings with San Diego State outright as underdogs and will do it for a 3rd straight year here.  Take Nevada.

6* Conference USA *CA$H COW* on Rice +2

The Key: Both Rice and North Texas have had COVID problems this year which has seen Rice play just 2 games and North Texas play just 3 games.  But we’ve seen enough of a sample size to know that Rice is the better team.  And that was evident with their common opponent in Southern Miss.  Rice crushed Southern Miss 30-6 on the road while North Texas lost to that same team 31-41 at home.  Not to mention North Texas also lost 21-49 at home to a bad Charlotte team.  It’s an experienced Rice team that returned 17 starters this year.  And it’s one that should not be a dog to a North Texas team that they also upset last year 20-14 at home.  They had 19 first downs compared to just 10 first downs for North Texas in that game.  Rice is a running team that will be able to run the ball at will against a North Texas defense that is yielding 243 RYPG and 5.6 YPC.  And North Texas hasn’t played a game since October 17th so it will have been off for more than a month coming into this game.  That can’t be a good thing.  North Texas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a win.  Rice is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Take Rice.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UMass +33.5

The Key: Florida Atlantic can’t be laying 33.5 points to anyone with their putrid offense.  The Owls are scoring just 20.4 PPG and averaging 323 YPG this year.  UMass is not good, but this will be their easiest opponent they have faced this year after road losses to Georgia Southern and Marshall.  And they’ve had 2 weeks to get ready for Florida Atlantic while the Owls played FIU last week.  It’s an experienced UMass team that returned 14 starters this year while FAU only returned 9 starters and has a new head coach in Willie Taggart, who has been a disaster as a coach in recent years.  The Owls are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 against a team with a losing record.  The Owls are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.  Take UMass.

7* Cardinals/Seahawks NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -3

The Key: The Seahawks will be extra hungry tonight after losing 3 of their last 4 following that 5-0 start.  One of those losses was to the Cardinals in overtime back on October 25th. And all 3 losses were on the road.  The Seahawks are back home now where they are 4-0 this year.  And with the division title possibly on the line here, I think we get the best version of the Seahawks and Russell Wilson.  The Cardinals have allowed 30 or more points in 3 straight games and a lot of that has to do with losing their best defender in DE Chandler Jones to injury.  Seattle is 32-15-4 ATS in its last 51 games off an ATS loss.  Pete Carroll has gone 12-2 ATS after 2 or more straight losses as the coach of the Seahawks.  Bets against dogs or PK who went over the total by 28 or more points in their last 3 games, in division games are 35-8 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Seattle.

6* Tulane/Tulsa AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulsa -5.5

The Key: The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a legit contender to win the American Athletic Conference this season.  They are 4-1 with their only loss coming in non-conference play in a game effort at Oklahoma State in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point dogs.  Then they upset UCF as 20.5-point dogs to prove they are contenders before crushing South Florida 42-13 on the road.  They did barely squeak by ECU in a bad spot, but now they came back from their bye week and beat SMU 28-24 last week.  And that bye week is key as the Golden Hurricane will now be playing just their 2nd game in 3 weeks so they should be the fresher team.  The Tulane Green Wave will be playing 7 straight weeks here and are on a short week to boot.  Tulsa outgained SMU and UCF by nearly 100 yards combined while Tulane was outgained by over 500 yards by SMU and UFC combined.  The Golden Hurricane are clearly the better team here and it will show on the scoreboard Thursday night.  Take Tulsa.

7* WMU/CMU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan -1.5

The Key: Central Michigan made the MAC Championship Game in Jim McElwain’s first season on the job last year.  He is doing big things here for the Chippewas already.  They are off to a 2-0 start this season with a 30-27 win over Ohio as 2.5-point home dogs and a 40-10 blowout of Northern Illinois as 6-point road favorites.  The defense has been very good in allowing just 294.5 YPG and they are outgaining those two opponents by 135.5 YPG.  Western Michigan was fortunate to beat Toledo last week after trailing by 10 with just under 3 minutes left and getting 2 TD’s in the final minutes after an onside kick to win 41-38.  Even after 2 TD drives late they were still outgained by 64 yards by Toledo for the game.  Last year Central Michigan outgained Western Michigan on the road but lost 15-31 in a misleading final after committing 3 turnovers.  The Chippewas get revenge at home this time around.  The Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdog.  Western Michigan is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off an ATS win.  The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games.  The Chippewas are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Akron/Kent State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron +26

The Key: The Akron Zips really impressed me last week in their 10-24 loss at Ohio as 27-point dogs.  This was a 7-point game late and they were in it for 4 quarters.  They gained 435 yards on offense and only gave up 307 yards on defense and probably deserved to win outright.  Now they are catching 26 points from Kent State tonight.  Kent State only beat Eastern Michigan by 4 and then crushed the worst team in the MAC in Bowling Green by 38 last week.  That win over Bowling Green has the Golden Flashes getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this matchup.  Kent State is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 matchups.  Take Akron.

7* Vikings/Bears MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +3

The Key: The Chicago Bears are hungry for a win coming off 3 straight losses.  Those 3 losses were to 3 of the best teams in the NFL in the Saints, Rams and Titans.  Now they take a step down in competition here against the 3-5 Minnesota Vikings.  This is a very bad Vikings defense that yields 29.3 PPG and 413 YPG.  And while the Minnesota offense has put up good numbers this year, it has come against awful defenses outside the Colts, who they only managed 11 points against.  And the Bears are the Vikings’ kryptonite.  Chicago only gives up 21.1 PPG and 335 YPG this year.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 matchups with the Vikings while yielding only 16.3 PPG in those 6 contests.  They have won the last 4 outright.  Take Chicago.

6* Ravens/Patriots AFC *BAILOUT* on Baltimore -7

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are 6-2 this season with their 2 losses coming to arguably the 2 best teams in the NFL in the Steelers and Chiefs.  Their 6 wins have come by 17.2 PPG this year so they are blowing out the teams they are supposed to.  And they should blow out the awful Patriots tonight.  New England has lost 4 of its last 5 with its only win coming on a last-second field goal over the Jets on Monday night.  Now the Patriots are on a short week with less time to prepare to try and stop Lamar Jackson and company.  That’s a huge disadvantage.  The Ravens should be able to run wild on this soft Patriots defense and name their score.  The Patriots are really lacking weapons on offense this season, and Cam Newton has been terrible.  New England QB’s have just 3 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions this year which is awful in today’s NFL.  The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 years.  The Patriots are 0-6 ATS against good rushing teams that average 130 or more RYPG over the last 2 years.  Take Baltimore.

6* Bills/Cardinals Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Arizona -2.5

The Key: I like the situation for the Cardinals this week.  They were a little fat and happy coming into their bye week off their big win over the Seahawks the week prior.  And they laid an egg in an upset loss to the underrated Miami Dolphins last week.  They will be back focused this week.  Now they catch a fat and happy Bills team coming off an upset win of their own over the Seahawks.  That came after beating their biggest rivals in the Patriots the week prior.  They have a bye on deck next week and I think they could be looking ahead to it and not giving the Cardinals the proper attention they deserve.  This is a Cardinals offense that has put up 30-plus points in 4 straight and one that can out-duel Josh Allen and company.  The Cardinals also have the better defense as they yield only 22.5 PPG this year while Buffalo gives up 25.9 PPG.  The Cardinals are scoring 29.3 PPG while the Bills are scoring 26.9 PPG.  The numbers indicate the Cardinals should be more than 2.5-point home favorites, and the situation dictates it as well.  Arizona is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games against poor pass defenses that allow 7 or more YPA.  The Cardinals are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games with a total of 49.5 or higher.  Take Arizona.

7* NFC East Game of the Year on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are off their bye week and getting healthy to make a run in the 2nd half of the season.  They now have 4 playmakers back that they didn’t have before in RB Sanders, WR Jeffery, TE Goedert and WR Raegor.  They also have their 2 best offensive linemen back and healthy now in Johnson and Peters.  They didn’t have any of these guys when they played the Giants the first time.  They still managed to beat the Giants and put up 422 yards on them while limiting the Giants to just 305 yards.  That’s nothing new in this series as the Eagles are 8-0 SU in their last 8 matchups with the Giants.      The Giants only have 2 wins all season, and they both came against Washington by a combined 4 points.  And they only beat Washington by 3 last week despite being +5 in turnovers.  The Giants are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as home dogs of 7 points or less.  Take Philadelphia.

6* SMU/Tulsa AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulsa -2.5

The Key: The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a legit contender to win the American Athletic Conference this season.  They are 3-1 with their only loss coming in non-conference play in a game effort at Oklahoma State in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point dogs.  Then they upset UCF as 20.5-point dogs to prove they are contenders before crushing South Florida 42-13 on the road.  They did barely squeak by ECU last time out, but now they’ve had 2 weeks to get ready for SMU coming off a bye week.  SMU has to be a tired team right now as they have played 8 games compared to just 4 for Tulsa.  And now the Mustangs will be playing for an 8th consecutive week.  After getting blown out 13-42 by Cincinnati, they were able to get by 2 bad teams in Temple and Navy the last 2 weeks.  But now this is a big step up in class and likely the 2nd-best team they’ve played all season here in Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane want revenge rom a 37-43 (OT) loss to SMU last year as 12-point dogs.  They blew a 30-9 lead in the 4th quarter and have not forgotten.  It’s revenge time here Saturday.  The Mustangs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.  The Golden Hurricane are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games off an ATS loss.  The Golden Hurricane are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Tulsa.

6* Northwestern/Purdue Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Purdue +3.5

The Key: Northwestern is starting to get too much love after starting the season 3-0.  Their last 2 wins were fortunate as they were outgained by 20 yards by Iowa in their 21-20 win and outgained by 125 yards by Nebraska in their 21-13 win.  Now they will be playing for a 4th straight week here.  Purdue is rested and ready off a bye week and off 2 straight wins over Iowa and Illinois.  The Boilermakers should not be catching 3.5 points at home here in what I have as a pretty evenly matched game, so the price is right to back the home team.  Purdue is 10-2 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 years.  The Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home dogs.  The Wildcats are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites.  Take Purdue.

6* Baylor/Texas Tech Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas Tech -1.5

The Key: The Texas Tech Red Raiders are hungry for a win after 2 straight losses to Oklahoma and TCU after beating a very good West Virginia team at home.  They also took Texas to overtime at home earlier this year after blowing a 15-point lead.  This team has a nice home-field advantage and always has.  Baylor is coming off 4 straight losses after blowing a 21-7 lead to Iowa State last week.  The Bears are an inexperienced team that returned only 9 starters this year and lost a few more due to injury.  Now the Bears will be on the road for the 4th time in 5 games.  And the Bears have had zero success in Lubbock over the years.  Texas Tech is a perfect 9-0 SU in its last 9 home matchups with Baylor.  And we’re getting the Red Raiders at a great price here as only 1.5-point favorites in a game they basically just have to win to cover.  Take Texas Tech.

6* Saturday Sun Belt *Annihilator* on South Alabama +16

The Key: Louisiana is 6-1 SU this season but just 2-5 ATS.  They haven’t been able to put teams away as each of their last 5 wins have come by 10 points or fewer against the likes of Georgia State, Georgia Southern, UAB, Texas State and Arkansas State.  If those teams can play with them, South Alabama certainly can as well.  The Jaguars only lost by 17 to the best team in the Sun Belt last week in Coastal Carolina.  And this has been a very closely-contested series over the years.  Each of the last 6 matchups have been decided by 10 points or fewer.  South Alabama only lost by 10 as 28-point dogs last year and by 10 as 19.5-point dogs the year prior.  And this is an experienced Jaguars team that returned 15 starters this year and has the confidence that they can hang with Louisiana.  The Jaguars are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 conference games.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 conference games.  Take South Alabama.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on West Virginia -3

The Key: West Virginia is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are just 4-3 this season but could easily be 7-0.  Their stats are that of a 6-1 team or better.  They are outgaining teams by 179 YPG this season and 1.2 YPP.  They had a win taken away from them last week by the refs at Texas as they refused to call a pass interference in the end zone on 4th down when they were going in for the game winning score.  Look for the Mountaineers to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week and make easy work of TCU.  The Horned Frogs rely heavily on their rushing game to move the football.  West Virginia only gives up 109 RYPG and 3.3 YPR this year.  They’ll stop the run with their elite defense and score enough points on this TCU defense to win this game with room to spare.  The Mountaineers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off a game where they forced no turnovers.  The Mountaineers are 4-0 at home this year and winning by 25.0 PPG.  Take West Virginia.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on East Carolina +28

The Key: East Carolina is better than its 1-5 record would suggest.  They had a win against Tulsa stolen from them by the refs.  And they haven’t lost by more than 23 points this year.  That 23-point loss came to UCF, a team that just runs at a frantic pace and puts up a lot of points on everyone.  Last year ECU only lost 43-46 at home to Cincinnati as a 24.5-point underdog.  The Pirates put up over 600 yards of offense in that defeat thanks to 535 passing yards and 5 total touchdowns from QB Holton Ahlers, who is back leading this ECU offense this season and having another great year.  Cincinnati has covered 3 in a row in wins over SMU, Houston and Memphis and now the price is too steep on them, especially since they are ranked in the Top 10 right now and getting 4-team playoff hype.  And they play UCF next week so could easily be looking ahead to that game and buying into the hype.  This game will be a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.  Plus the Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as road dogs.  Take East Carolina.

7* Colts/Titans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee +1

The Key: The Tennessee Titans have picked up right where they left off last season.  They have gone 6-2 after making it all the way to the AFC Championship last year.  And for some reason this team just keeps flying under the radar.  Ryan Tannehill has played like an MVP since taking over at starting QB, and AJ Brown is one of the best receivers in the NFL.  Derrick Henry gets better as the season goes on and will be a big factor for them in the 2nd half of the season here.  The Colts have played the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL.  Their two toughest games they lost to the Ravens 10-24 at home and the Browns 23-32 on the road.  They also lost to the Jaguars in the opener.  I know the Colts have a great defense, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired as Philip Rivers just isn’t playing well at all.  Rivers has 10 touchdowns against 7 interceptions on the season.  Tannehill has 19 touchdowns and only 3 picks this year.  Henry has 843 yards and 8 touchdowns in 8 games and is on pace to lead the NFL in rushing.  The Titans are 4-1 at home this year with their only loss to the Steelers, who are 8-0 this year.  Take Tennessee.

7* Toledo/Western Michigan MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -2.5

The Key: The Western Michigan Broncos got in 8 spring practices and started off the season like gangbusters with their 58-13 throttling of Akron last week.  They outgained the Zips by 4.3 YPP in that game.  Toledo also had a nice win last week in a 38-3 victory over Bowling Green.  But head coach Jason Candle is struggling the last 2 seasons at Toledo with a combined 13-12 record.  The Rockets are on the decline and the Broncos have a great chance to beat them after losing the last 2 meetings.  Western Michigan went 6-0 at home last year, while Toledo is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games.  I like that combination here and the price with the Broncos as only 2.5-point home favorites.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Miami/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -9.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls are loaded with 15 returning starters and the most talent in the MAC this season.  They are the favorites to win the conference.  They have everyone back on offense except for a couple offensive linemen from a unit that average 31.5 PPG last year.  That have 7 starters back on D from a unit that only gave up 21.3 PPG.  And they had 9 spring practices to boot.  Buffalo outgained Northern Illinois by 2.0 YPP in the opener and won 49-30 after leading 49-16.  Miami was outgained by 1.1 YPP by Ball State in the opener and was lucky to win 38-31.  Miami was also lucky to beat Buffalo last year despite getting outgained by 133 yards because they won the turnover battle 4-0.  They won’t be so fortunate in 2020 as Buffalo makes a statement here and avenges that defeat.  The Redhawks could be without starting QB Gabbert and they will be without their top 2 rushers from last year in Bester and Shelton.  The Bulls have won 7 of their last 8 games all by 19 points or more and are 7-1 ATS over that span.  Take Buffalo.

7* Patriots/Jets MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -7

The Key: The New York Jets are 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS this season.  They are losing by 18 PPG and all 8 losses have come by 8 points or more.  The Patriots still have hope to get back in this division race even after their loss to Buffalo last week.  It’s not like the Bills are playing great right now, and the Patriots had their chance to beat them, only losing by a field goal after Cam Newton fumbled.  The Patriots should get back on the winning track here against the Jets, who they have owned through the years.  That should continue in 2020 with the Jets being easily the worst team in the NFL right now.  Take New England.

7* Saints/Bucs NFC South Game of the Year on Tampa Bay -4.5

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have gone 6-1 in their last 7 games overall and have outscored those 7 teams by 13.3 PPG.  They have been a completely different team since losing to the Saints in the opener, and now they are out to prove it and grab a stranglehold on this division as they get revenge at home.  The Bucs have scored at least 25 points in all 6 of their wins this year with an explosive offense.  They give up only 20.6 PPG and less than 300 YPG on the season with one of the top defenses in the NFL.  The Saints have won 4 straight games by 6 points or less and have been very fortunate.  They have a leaky defense that allows 28.1 PPG this year.  And Drew Brees isn’t what he used to be and is dealing with a shoulder injury right now.  The Saints are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off 2 consecutive wins by 3 points or fewer.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Dolphins/Cardinals Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami +4.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals had everything going their way going into their bye week with 3 straight victories.  So the bye week only could have hurt them from a mental perspective because it halts their momentum.  And their huge win over the Seahawks going into the bye probably has their heads a little bigger than they should be right now.  Miami is the type of team that nothing comes easy against.  The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and have upset wins over the 49ers and Rams recently, 2 teams in the toughest division in the NFL.  They also played the Seahawks very tough, and now they get their shot at these Cardinals.  The Dolphins have the way better defense here giving up just 18.6 PPG this season.  They have also put up 26.9 PPG on offense and should unleash Tua this week at quarterback.  He didn’t have to do much last week because they jumped out to a 28-7 lead over the Rams.  The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS in Weeks 5 thru 9 over the last 2 years.  Take Miami.

6* Raiders/Chargers AFC West *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles PK

The Key: The Chargers might be the best 2-5 team I’ve ever seen, but they are now 0-3 in games in which they’ve had a 17-point lead or greater in 2020.  They blew another 21-point lead to the Broncos last week as things just spiraled against them.  But this is a young, resilient team that will try to bounce back this week and beat the Raiders.  The Chargers outgain their opponents by 53.1 YPG on the season, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.  The Raiders only outgain their opponents by 1.0 YPG on the season.  The Chargers are the better team, and we’re getting them at home as a pick ‘em.  This is a great value because the better public doesn’t want anything to do with them with their 2-5 record and all these blown leads.  That’s why you have to dig deeper into the numbers in the NFL and realize the Chargers are much closer to a 5-2 team than a 2-5 one.  Bets against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 6 points or less last game against an opponent that is off a loss by 3 points or less are 34-8 ATS since 1983.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Washington State/Oregon State Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Oregon State -1.5

The Key: Oregon State is a program on the rise.  After going just 2-10 in Jonathan Smith’s first year in 2018, the Beavers went 5-7 last year.  They won 4 Pac-12 games and had 3 losses by 3 points or less.  That’s how close they were to being an 8-4 team.  One of those close losses came to Washington State by a final of 53-54 that cost them a trip to a bowl game.  It’s now revenge time for the Beavers.  Smith is in his 3rd season with the program with 14 returning starters and his best team yet.  Washington State lost Mike Leach to Mississippi State and is in rebuilding mode.  They lose QB Anthony Gordon who had 5,579 yards and 48 TD last year.  They also lose their top 3 receivers, who combined for nearly 3,000 receiving yards and 26 TD.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Beavers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Take Oregon State.

6* Stanford/Oregon Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford +10.5

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have 16 starters back this year and are contenders in the Pac-12.  They have QB Davis Mills who gained valuable experience last year replacing an injured KJ Costello and completed nearly 66% of his passes on the season.  Oregon has just 9 returning starters and is a team on decline after losing QB Justin Herbert as an early first-round draft pick.  They have to replace all 5 starters on the offensive line and their quarterback.  I like to fade teams like this early in the season.  Take Stanford.

6* Houston/Cincinnati AAC *CA$H COW* on Houston +13.5

The Key: Cincinnati is coming off a massive win over Memphis last week.  The Bearcats had that game circled after losing to Memphis twice last season, including in the AAC Championship Game.  This is now a letdown spot for the Bearcats.  And this line is inflated because they hammered Memphis 49-10 and kept pouring it on.  They go from being underdogs to SMU to 6.5-point favorites over Memphis to now nearly 2-touchdown favorites against Houston.  And Houston may be better than both SMU and Memphis.  The Cougars played BYU very tough earlier this season and were leading in the 4th quarter.  They eventually lost to BYU, which is now 7-0 on the season.  They also lost to UCF, another team among the elite in the country.  And that 21-44 loss last week has this number inflated as well.  The Cougars are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs.  Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games off an ATS loss.  The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Houston.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Liberty +15

The Key: The Liberty Flames are undefeated this season which includes a 17-point road win over Syracuse from the ACC.  This will be their toughest game yet, but they will be up to the task catching 15 points against the Virginia Tech Hokies.  Liberty is averaging 40 PPG this year and giving up only 24 PPG and 303 YPG.  They are loaded on offense behind former Auburn QB Malik Willis.  They are outgaining their opponents by 191 YPG this year.  Virginia Tech is giving up 31 PPG and 459 YPG this year.  They also give up 195 rushing yards per game, which is going to be a problem for them against a Liberty team that rushed for 257 yards per game.  Take Liberty.

6* WVU/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on West Virginia +6.5

The Key: West Virginia is one of the best teams in the country that not many know about.  You look at their numbers and they are better than their 4-2 record.  That showed up last week as they handed Kansas State their first conference loss of the season.  They dominated for 4 quarters and rolled to a 37-10 victory.  West Virginia is now outgaining its opponents by 209 YPG on the season with 465 YPG on offense and giving up only 256 YPG on defense.  Texas is only outgaining its opponents by 42 YPG.  The Longhorns were fortunate to beat Oklahoma State in overtime last week as they won the turnover battle 4-0 and were outgained by 243 yards.  West Virginia actually outgained Oklahoma State by 11 yards in their earlier meeting but lost.  Bets on road teams who allowed 225 or fewer yards in their previous game against an opponent that was outgained by 225 or more yards in their previous game are 34-6 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take West Virginia.

7* Miami/NC State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on OVER 58.5

The Key: The OVER is 5-1 in NC State games this season.  The Wolfpack are built for high scoring games with a very good offense and a terrible defense.  They are giving up 34.2 PPG this year and have allowed 40-plus 3 times in 6 games.  They are scoring 31.5 PPG and even though they recently lost starting QB Devin Leary, they still managed to pass for 358 yards against UNC last time out.  Miami now has an elite offense this year thanks to Houston transfer D’Eriq King.  The Hurricanes have scored 31 or more points in 4 of their 6 games this year and will have no problem getting to 40-plus in this one.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in Hurricanes last 4 games as road favorites.  The OVER is 5-0 in Wolfpack last 5 games as an underdog.  Take the OVER.

7* Packers/49ers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -2.5

The Key: The Green Bay Packers are hungry for a couple of reasons here Thursday night.  They want to erase the taste of their upset loss to the Vikings last week, who were in a good spot coming off their bye week and the Packers just couldn’t stop Dalvin Cook.  And they also want revenge after losing to the 49ers in both matchups last year.  They were eliminated in the playoffs by a very good 49ers team.  But this 2020 version of the 49ers is a mash unit with all of their injuries.  It only got worse in their loss to the Seahawks last week with both Jimmy G and George Kittle having to leave the game with injuries.  I’m not even going to list all of their injuries because it would take too long.  Let’s just say their current roster has little chance of even being competitive against this 2020 Packers team.  The Packers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS on the road this year with their only loss to the Bucs, who might be the best team in the NFC.  They beat the Saints, Vikings and Texans by a combined 31 points.  The 49ers are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS at home this year with upset losses to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins.  Bets on road teams off 5 straight games where they force 1 or fewer turnovers against an opponent that is coming off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take Green Bay.

6* Utah State/Nevada Mountain West *CA$H COW* on Nevada -15.5

The Key: The Nevada Wolf Pack are a real contender in the Mountain West this year.  They returned 17 starters, an elite offense, and a monster defensive line that is exactly what Jay Norvell has wanted since he arrived here.  The offense has put up 37 PPG thus far and the defense has limited the run, holding two good running teams in Wyoming and UNLV to 127 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  Utah State is in rebuilding mode after losing QB Jordan Love to the NFL and bringing back 13 starters this year.  That’s been evident as the Aggies have looked atrocious in their first two games.  They lost 13-42 to Boise State as 17-point dogs and 7-38 to San Diego State as 8.5-point dogs.  Their offense is averaging just 10 PPG and 209 YPG in the absence of Love, the first-round pick of the Green Bay Packers.  The Aggies are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  The Wolf Pack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups.  Take Nevada.

7* Buffalo/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -13

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls are loaded with 15 returning starters and the most talent in the MAC this season.  They should be the favorites to win the conference.  They have everyone back on offense except a couple offensive linemen from a unit that averaged 31.5 PPG last year.  They have 7 starters back on D from a unit that only gave up 21.3 PPG.  And then they got in 9 spring practices to boot.  Northern Illinois looks like one of the worst teams in the MAC with all of the transfers they lost and now having just 10 starters back or fewer.  They are likely to start 10 underclassmen and are lacking talent.  Buffalo went 7-1 ATS over its final 8 games last year with all 6 of its wins during that stretch coming by 19 points or more.  Take Buffalo.

7* Bucs/Giants MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +11

The Key: All the value in backing the Bucs has gone by the wayside the last 2 weeks with their blowout wins over the Packers and Raiders.  Now they find themselves laying double-digits on the road against the New York Giants this week.  You just don’t want to be laying double-digits on the road in the NFL.  The price is right to back the Giants, who continue to play in close games and show up every week.  That’s why the Giants are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall and have been a nice money maker.  They only lost by 4 to the Bears, by 8 to the Rams, by 3 to the Cowboys and by 1 to the Eagles and covered the spread in every one of those games.  One of their non-covers was a 20-19 win over Washington as 2-point favorites.  So, 5 of their last 6 games have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  They have a sneaky good defense that can keep them in games.  And Daniel Jones just got back his favorite receiver in Sterling Shepard from injury last week and he made an immediate impact.  Shepard has 6 receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown in a 21-22 road loss to the Eagles last Thursday.  That also means the Giants have extra time to prepare now after playing last Thursday.  New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after playing a Thursday game.  Bets against road favorites who are outscoring opponents by 10 PPG or more off a win by 10 points or more are 51-20 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take New York.

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Baltimore Ravens -3

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are rested and ready to go coming off their bye week.  They won’t be lacking any motivation this week with their hated rivals in the Pittsburgh Steelers coming to town.  Having that opponent I’m sure made the Ravens sharp on their bye week.  And John Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the NFL to back on extra rest.  He is 9-2 ATS off a bye as the coach of Baltimore.  The Ravens are 5-1 this year with their 5 wins coming by 17.8 PPG and their only loss coming to the Chiefs.  They will now hand the Steelers their first defeat of the season Sunday.  Take Baltimore.

6* Colts/Lions Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Detroit +3

The Key: The Detroit Lions have quietly gone 3-1 in their last 4 games overall.  They will be playing with a ton of confidence after knocking off the Falcons on the final play of the game last week.  And Matthew Stafford is enjoying having Kenny Golloday back at receiver after he missed the first 2 games of the season.  The defense is allowing just 18 PPG the last 2 weeks and things are looking up in Detroit.  The Indianapolis Colts are 4-2 but it has come against one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.  They have played the 32nd-ranked schedule thus far.  And the only teams they faced that have a winning record are the Bears and Browns who are both not as good as their records.  And they lost to the Browns.  The Lions have played 4 of their first 6 games on the road and have faced 4 winning teams.  Take Detroit.

6* Titans/Bengals AFC *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +6

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals continue to be a money maker due to their 1-5-1 SU record.  But they are 5-2 ATS with 6 of their 7 games decided by one score.  And all but one of their losses was by 5 points or less.  Their only blowout loss came at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens, which is understandable.  The Bengals now play the 5-1 Tennessee Titans who are nowhere near as good as their record.  The Titans are 4-1 in games decided by 6 points or less this year, so they have been very fortunate in close games.  And after losing after missing a last-second field goal to the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers last week, it’s one of those losses that could lead to a hangover here.  There’s no way the Titans will be as hungry to face the Bengals as they were the Steelers.  And we’ve seen bad teams like the Broncos, Jaguars, Vikings and Texans all take the Titans to the wire this season, so the Bengals are more than capable of doing the same.  Joe Burrow is having a huge rookie season and just threw for over 400 yards on the Browns last week.  He can keep them in games with all of the weapons he has on offense.  And he should find plenty of success against a soft Tennessee defense that yields 25.5 PPG and 402 YPG.  Bets on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent, a team that wins less than 25% of their games playing a team with a winning record are 31-9 ATS since 1983.  Take Cincinnati.

6* Rams/Dolphins Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami +4.5

The Key: Most people want to downgrade the Dolphins for switching from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tua Tagovailoa.  While it is a questionable move, if you were going to do it, now is the time.  The Dolphins had a bye week to get Tua ready to run the offense.  And now the Rams have no idea what to prepare for this week.  I’m not downgrading the Dolphins like everyone else just yet.  This is a terrible spot for the Rams.  They are on a short week after beating the Bears on Monday Night Football.  And now they have to travel out East and face a 10:00 AM body clock game here against the Dolphins.  This is a Dolphins team playing well coming off back-to-back blowouts over the 49ers (43-17) and Jets (24-0).  Miami’s defense gives up just 18.8 PPG and is better than it gets credit for.  The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a bye week.  Take Miami.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Las Vegas Raiders +2.5

The Key: The Cleveland Browns are nowhere near as good as their 5-2 record would suggest.  Their 5 wins have come by a combined 32 points while their 2 losses have come by a combined 63 points.  They are actually getting outscored by 3.0 PPG this year.  The Las Vegas Raiders have faced a gauntlet of a schedule.  They have played 4 teams with winning records in the Saints, Bills, Chiefs and Bucs, and 2 teams at or around .500 in the Patriots and Panthers.  And they even upset the Saints 34-24 as 4-point dogs and the Chiefs 40-32 as 10-point dogs.  Football Outsiders shows the Raiders as having faced the single-toughest schedule in the NFL thus far.  They had some Covid issues last week that didn’t allow their offensive line to practice all week, plus they lost their best player on D in safety Johnathan Abram.  And it was a 24-20 game with the Bucs into the 4th quarter before things unraveled late.  Well, neither of those things will be an issue this week as they prepare to face the Browns.  Cleveland has the worse injury problems, especially now that they’ve lost their best receiver in Odell Beckham Jr. to a season-ending ACL tear suffered last week against the Bengals.  Bets on all teams with a line of +3 to -3 off 5 or more consecutive overs, an excellent offensive team that scores 27 PPG or more are 24-5 ATS since 1983.  The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.  Take Las Vegas.

6* Missouri/Florida SEC *CA$H COW* on Florida -12

The Key: The Florida Gators have had 3 weeks to get over their Covid-19 issues and get ready to face Missouri.  They are coming off their first loss of the season, a tough 38-41 road loss to a very good Texas A&M team.  So they should be playing with a chip on their shoulder and be ready to give a big effort for 4 quarters.  That should be enough to cover this 12-point spread against a Missouri team that is starting to get too much respect from the books.  After losing by 19 to Alabama and by 23 to Tennessee, Missouri has now pulled off 2 straight upset wins over LSU 45-41 on the road and Kentucky 20-10 at home.  But last week’s win over Kentucky comes with an asterisk.  The Wildcats lost starting QB Terry Wilson early in that game and could not get their offense going without him.  Florida will get its offense going against Missouri.  The Gators average 42.3 PPG and 464 YPG this year and have one of the best offenses in the country.  They can name their score against this Missouri defense that gave up 38 to Alabama, 35 to Tennessee and 41 to LSU.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games, and 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games dating back further.  The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss.  Take Florida.

6* Texas/Oklahoma State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +3.5

The Key: Oklahoma State is 4-0 but it has come against a soft schedule with their only road game thus far at Kansas.  Texas has played the much tougher schedule and is close to being 5-0 with a triple-OT loss to Oklahoma and a tough 31-33 loss to TCU in which they deserved to win.  If the Longhorns want any chance of winning the Big 12, this is a must-win now.  I think they get the job done with the better QB in Sam Ehlinger over Spencer Sanders.  Ehlinger has 17 touchdowns against 5 interceptions this year and has rushed for 293 yards and 7 scores.  He simply wills his team to wins.  Sanders has 1 TD and 2 INT and has only rushed for 80 yards and a score on 20 attempts.  He’s just a QB that I refuse to trust with my money.  Bets on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent against a team that’s off 3 straight conference wins are 70-32 ATS since 1992.  The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 matchups.  Take Texas.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Auburn +3.5

The Key: LSU is getting too much respect as a road favorite here after beating South Carolina 52-24 last week.  Remember, this is the same team that lost 34-44 to Mississippi State as a 14.5-point favorite and 41-45 to Missouri as a 14-point favorite.  Their schedule has been extremely easy and they sit at just 2-2.  Freshman QB TJ Finley played well against South Carolina in place of Myles Brennan, who is doubtful to play this week.  But now Finley will be making his first SEC road start in a very tough place to play at Auburn.  Auburn has some great stats outside of their loss to Georgia.  They have outgained each of their last 3 opponents and outgained South Carolina by 179 yards but found a way to lose. LSU only outgained South Carolina by 138 yards and won by 28.  So those misleading final scores are providing us with some line value here on Auburn catching points at home.  Auburn is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 matchups.  Auburn wants revenge from a 3-point loss last year and a 1-point loss to LSU in 2018.  Take Auburn.

6* UCF/Houston AAC *CA$H COW* on Houston +3

The Key: The Houston Cougars are loaded this season with 19 returning starters in the 2nd year under Dana Holgorsen.  Their lone loss came to a very good BYU team in which they led in the 4th quarter before getting outscored 22-0 in the final period.  They were only outgained by 40 yards by the Cougars.  They crushed Tulane 49-31 and Navy 37-21 in their other 2 games.  Clearly UCF has taken a step back this season with upset losses already to both Tulsa and Memphis.  And I think you can add another loss here against Houston.  The Knights are just too bad defensively to be trusted as they yield 33.4 PPG and 482.2 YPG this year.  UCF is 0-7 ATS after playing a game where 70 points or more were scored over the last 2 years.  Bets against road teams with a line of +3 to -3 with a good offense that averages 6.1 YPPG or more after allowing 475 YPG or more in their last 3 games are 24-4 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Houston.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Georgia State +3

The Key: Coastal Carolina’s unbeaten season comes to an end this week.  Georgia State is the better team, especially now that the Chanticleers are expected to be without starting QB Grant McCall.  He has 11 touchdown passes and only 1 interception this season and has also rushed for 3 touchdowns.  He is irreplaceable for a team like Coastal Carolina.  Georgia State has an elite offense that averages 237 rushing yards and 229 passing yards this season behind the great play of freshman QB Cornelius Brown.  It’s a good matchup for the Panthers too as they give up just 97 RYPG and 3.2 YPC this year.  They have what it takes defensively to stop Coastal Carolina’s rushing attack, which averages 188 RYPG on 44 attempts per game.  Take Georgia State.

6* Hawaii/Wyoming Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Wyoming PK

The Key: I went against Wyoming last week as they were favored on the road against a Nevada team that I think has a legit shot to win the Mountain West this year.  But Wyoming made it interesting and never gave up, eventually losing 34-37.  But now I’m siding with Wyoming this week as they play their first home game against a Hawaii team that I believe to be overrated.  Hawaii is under a first-year head coach in Todd Graham.  They did beat a Fresno State team that’s in transition last week also with a new head coach.  But they were gifted that win with 4 turnovers.  Wyoming isn’t the type of team that gives away anything easy.  And they have a great home-field advantage in Laramie as they went 6-0 at home last year.  The weather will also be working in their favor as temps will be in the 30s Friday night with wind gusts of 15 to 25 MPH.  They play great defense under Craig Bohl in his 7th season and have allowed 22 PPG or fewer each of the last 3 years, so their performance against a good Nevada offense last week was an aberration.  Take Wyoming.

7* Falcons/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -2.5

The Key: The situation couldn’t be much worse for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They are coming off a 22-23 loss to the Lions when they had the game in the bag if they had just executed.  But they scored a TD instead of running the clock out and kicking a chip shot FG, opening the door for the Lions to win on the final play of the game.  Now the Falcons are 1-6 with nothing to play for the rest of the way.  The Panthers are 3-4 right now and could easily be 6-1.  They still believe they can make the playoffs and this is a huge game for them.  Teddy Bridgewater is playing great football and threw for 313 yards and 2 touchdowns in their 23-16 win in Atlanta earlier this year.  The Panthers could get Christian McCaffrey back this week.  This will only be the 2nd outdoor game for the Falcons this year.  They lost by 14 to the Packers in their only other outdoor game and are now 0-5 ATS in their last 5 grass games.  The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after yielding more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The home team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 matchups.  Take Carolina.

6* South Alabama/Georgia Southern Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +4

The Key: South Alabama has a common opponent with Georgia Southern that makes be believe the Jaguars are the better team here.  South Alabama beat Louisiana Monroe 38-14 and Georgia Southern only beat that same team 35-30.  It’s also a good matchup for South Alabama’s defense as Georgia Southern rushes for 249 YPG but only passes for 114 YPG. South Alabama only gives up 135 RYPG and 3.9 YPC on the ground this season.  Their weakness defensively has been against the pass, but that won’t be an issue here.  And South Alabama clearly has the better offense averaging 412 YPG compared to 363 YPG for Georgia Southern.  And it’s also worth noting South Alabama has faced the much more difficult schedule.  Bets on road dogs who covered 4 of their last 5 games that win between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 32-10 ATS over the last 10 years.  The Jaguars are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after yielding more than 280 passing yards last game.  Take South Alabama.

6* Rays/Dodgers Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -134

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen stepped up in a big way in Game 5 to give them a ton of confidence.  They didn’t allow a single run in the final 3 1/3 innings after Clayton Kershaw left with a 4-2 lead.  That’s the way the score remained.  This will be a bullpen game in Game 6 and we should see plenty of Dustin May after Tony Gonsolin.  Both guys have been solid all season for the Dodgers.  And they found their new closer in Blake Treinen, who shut down the Rays in the 9th in Game 5 with no problem.  Blake Snell hasn’t made it past the 5th inning in any of his last 4 starts this postseason.  So the Rays will have their bullpen tested as well.  I think it’s pretty even pitching wise in Game 6, but the Dodgers just simply have the more potent lineup from top to bottom, and their bats can carry them to a World Series Championship that they have been waiting a long time for.  This is simply their year after coming back from 3-1 down to beat the Braves in the NLCS, and there’s nothing the Rays can do to stop them now.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Bears/Rams MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -5

The Key: The Chicago Bears are a paper tiger.  They are 5-1 and could easily be 1-5 instead.  They came back from 17 down to beat the Lions and 16 down to beat the Falcons in the 4th quarter of both those games.  They came back from 13-0 down to beat the Bucs.  They needed a late stop to beat the Giants 17-13.  And last week needed a late stop to avoid OT against the Panthers.  They were beat worse than the 19-11 score against the Colts would indicate.  And they are getting outgained by nearly 25 YPG this year, which isn’t what you would expect from a 5-1 team.  They will get exposed by the Rams, who are 4-2 and outgaining their opponents by nearly 70 YPG on the season.  It is a Rams team that will be playing hungry after losing to the 49ers last week.  The Rams have actually been better defensively than the Bears this season in giving up 318 YPG compared to 337 YPG for the Bears.  And the Rams have the way better offense in averaging 388 YPG compared to 313 YPG for the Bears.  The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS loss.  They will win this game by a TD or more Monday night.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Dodgers/Rays Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -155

The Key: Clayton Kershaw can be trusted to get the job done in Game 5 over Tyler Glasnow.  He should be more than a -200 favorite in this matchup.  Kershaw sports a 2.38 ERA on the year and a 2.88 ERA across 4 postseason starts.  He is also 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against the Rays.  He shut them down in Game 1 and will do the same in Game 5.  Tyler Glasnow sports an 8.71 ERA in his last 2 outings after yielding 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in Game 1 against the Dodgers.  Los Angeles kills right-handed pitching with a 66-24 record in its last 90 games against righties.  They have so much power from the left side of the plate.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Jaguars/Chargers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -7.5

The Key: Without question, the Los Angeles Chargers are the best one-win team in the NFL this season.  They could easily be 4-1 instead.  They lost to the Chiefs by 3 as 9-point dogs, lost to the Panthers by 5, lost to the Bucs by 7 and lost to the Saints by 3.  Those are four teams who are all .500 or better this season, so they have played a brutal schedule.  Now they have had 2 weeks to regroup, rest and prepare to face the 2nd-worst team in the NFL in the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Jaguars had a fluky win in their opener over the Colts in which they were outgained by more than 200 yards.  They have since gone 0-5 with those five losses coming by an average of 12.6 points per game.  Their leaky defense has allowed at least 30 points in all 5 defeats.  Justin Herbert is proving to be a steal in the draft as he has been nothing but impressive.  He is completing 68.8% of his passes and 8.5 YPA with 9 touchdowns against 3 interceptions.  He will light up this soft Jacksonville defense as the Chargers let out some frustration here with a blowout victory off their bye.  Bets against dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games against an opponent that scored 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games are 26-6 ATS since 1983.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Bucs/Raiders Sunday Night Game of the Year on Las Vegas +3

The Key: The Las Vegas Raiders have wins over the Saints 34-24 and the Chiefs 40-32.  If those two results don’t tell you how capable this team is, I don’t know what will.  Yet the Raiders are once again getting overlooked as 3-point home dogs to the Tampa Bay Bucs.  This is a letdown spot for the Bucs off their huge win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week.  And we saw the Bucs go on the road and get beat by the Bears the last time they traveled as similar 3-point favorite.  The Raiders have an elite offense that score 30.2 PPG and will test this Tampa defense.  They are led by Derek Carr, who is having a career year with 73.1% completions and 11 touchdowns against only 1 interception this year.  He and Jon Gruden are on the same page right now.  The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in road games against teams that win 60% to 75% of their games over the last 3 years.  Take Las Vegas.

6* Panthers/Saints NFC South *CA$H COW* on Carolina +7.5

The Key: The Carolina Panthers had won 3 straight before laying an egg last week in a 16-23 home loss to the Chicago Bears.  It was a team not used to success, and they basically threw a pick-6 on their first drive and were chasing that 7 points the rest of the game.  They will had a chance to force OT at the end but came up short.  Look for them to come back with much better focus this week against a division rival in New Orleans.  And Teddy Bridgewater wants to prove to his former team that they made a mistake by going back to Drew Brees last season after Bridgewater had strung together several wins for them and looked impressive in doing so.  He might be the single-most underrated QB in the NFL today.  And Brees looks like a shell of his former self with terrible arm strength.  They lost to the Packers ar home and should have lost to the Chargers at home, but escaped with a 3-point victory.  They are beatable here in New Orleans, especially with the lack of fans due to the pandemic.  I think they are getting too much respect for home-field advantage here when there’s definitely not 7.5 points between these teams on a neutral.  Take Carolina.

6* Cincinnati/SMU AAC *BAILOUT* on SMU -2.5

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are 5-0 this season and a legit contender to win the American Athletic Conference.  Sonny Dykes is doing great things here, and the Mustangs have the numbers to back up their 5-0 record.  They have an explosive offense that averages 42.6 PPG and 563.2 YPG and a solid defense that yields 25.4 PPG.  Cincinnati is 3-0 but against a much easier schedule than SMU has faced.  Their 3 wins all came at home over Austin Peay, Army and South Florida.  They only managed 396 YPG and gave up 306.7 YPG against those 3 poor teams.  Now they will be going on the road for the first time this year.  I don’t think they have the firepower offensively to match SMU in this one.  Bets on home favorites who outgain their opponents by 100 YPG or more against a good team outgaining opponents by 50-100 YPG, after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards are 26-6 ATS over the last 5 years.  SMU was much more dominant than the final score against Tulane last week as they needed OT despite outgaining the Green Wave by 194 yards.  They remain underrated despite being 5-0.  Take SMU.

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Nevada +4.5

The Key: Nevada should not be a home dog to Wyoming in the Mountain West opener for both teams.  The Wolf Pack are a real contender in the MWC and my pick to win the West division this year.  They have 17 starters back and enter Year 4 under Jay Norvell, who has gotten them to a bowl game in each of his last 2 seasons.  They have a loaded offense with 10 starters back and should make big strides on that side of the ball.  And Norvell finally has a big defensive line with two DE over 270 pounds and two DT over 300 pounds.  It should be his best defense yet.  Wyoming is a tough team to trust to lay points because they never have a very good offense.  They do have a good defense year in and year out, but they will take a step back this year with only 5 starters back and the loss of their top 3 tacklers on D.  The Wolf Pack are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as home dogs.  Take Nevada.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Indiana +6.5

The Key: The Indiana Hoosiers finished with a winning record in the Big Ten and overall for the first since since 1993 last year.  Head coach Tom Allen has this team on the rise and this is his best team yet as he enters his 4th season in Bloomington.  The Hoosiers return 17 starters and want revenge from narrow losses to Penn State each of the last 2 seasons. They lost 28-33 to Penn State as 14-point home dogs in 2018 and outgained the Nittany Lions 554 to 417 in that game.  Last year they lost 27-34 despite once again having the 462 to 371 yardage edge.  They really should have won both those games, and they have not forgotten.  Now they right another wrong in their opener and pull the upset here at home.  Take Indiana.

6* Saturday NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty -11

The Key: Hugh Freeze is working his magic with this Liberty program.  The Flames are 4-0 this season and there has been nothing fraudulent about this start.  They just went on the road and beat Syracuse 38-21 handily as 3-point favorites to knock off a Power 5 team.  Their stats are so impressive.  They are gaining 484 YPG and giving up just 275 YPG on defense, outgaining foes by 209 YPG on the season.  Southern Miss has been hit hard by Covid-19.  They will now have their 3rd different head coach for Saturday.  They fired Jay Hopson after a season-opening loss to South Alabama.  Scotty Walden was named interim coach, but now he is out this week with Covid-19.  And that leaves Tim Billings will be in line to coach the team.  The Eagles are 1-3 this season with their only win coming against a terrible North Texas team.  They lost by 11 to South Alabama at home, by 1 to a bad LA Tech team that was missing several players due to Covid, and by 42 to a Tulane team that has shown they aren’t very good either.  Liberty will be the best team they have faced yet, and it’s really not even close.  They give up 40 PPG and 490.5 YPG on the season, so the Flames should be able to name their score and run away with this one.  Bets against any team that is outscored by 7 or more PPG, after 2 straight games where 70 or more points were scored are 50-15 ATS over the last 5 years.  Oddsmakers haven’t caught on to how good this Flames team is just yet, so we’ll keep capitalizing.  Take Liberty.

6* Oklahoma/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU +7

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have shown me enough against a brutal schedule to know they can compete with Oklahoma.  They are 1-2, but they only lost by 3 to Iowa Stat and by 7 to Kansas State, who are both 3-0 in Big 12 play.  They also upset Texas 33-31 as 10.5-point road dogs.  Oklahoma needed triple-OT to beat Texas and also lost by 7 to Iowa State.  Oklahoma also lost outright to Kansas State as a 28-point favorite.  The Sooners are way overvalued early in the season, and based on those results, these are pretty even teams.  TCU actually has the better QB in my opinion in Max Duggan, who is completing 68.8% of his passes and averaging 7.8 YPA this year.  And TCU certainly has the better defense in giving up 366.7 YPG compared to 40 PPG and 415 YPG for Oklahoma in conference play.  And the Sooners have a laundry list of injuries right now, while the Horned Frogs are very healthy.  Gary Patterson is 14-4 ATS in home games off a bye week as the coach of TCU.  Take TCU.

6* Dodgers/Rays Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -145

The Key: We’ll side with the Los Angeles Dodgers here in Game 3.  They will be set up well here to go with Buehler, Urias and Jansen as Buehler is likely to go deep into this game.  All he has done is dominate the postseason.  Buehler sports a 2.44 ERA across 10 postseason start and a 1.20 ERA in his last 3 this year.  The Dodgers will bounce back like they’ve done all season and last year as they are 49-19 in their last 68 games off a defeat.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Illinois/Wisconsin NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Wisconsin -18.5

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers have had this game circled all offseason.  They lost 23-24 as 29-point favorites at Illinois last year.  Now they are only 18.5-point home favorites in the rematch, a 10.5-point adjustment.  Oddsmakers are putting too much thought into the injury to Wisconsin QB Jack Coan.  It’s a blessing in disguise as redshirt freshman Graham Mertz is about as exciting of a recruit as the Badgers have ever had.  He should be their best QB since Russell Wilson was in Madison.  Wisconsin rebounded from that loss to Illinois to win the West and gave Ohio State a run for its money in the Big Ten Title game.  Now the Badgers have 15 starters back and one of the best defenses in the country with 9 starters back from a unit that gave up 16.9 PPG last year.  Illinois made a bowl game for the first time since 2014 last year.  But they lost their final 3 games, including a 19-point home loss to a bad Northwestern team and a 15-point loss to a bad Cal team in the bowl.  Wisconsin has won 7 straight home meetings with Illinois by an average of 19.1 PPG.  The last 2 in Madison have resulted in Badgers wins by 29 and 45 points.  Take Wisconsin.

7* Giants/Eagles NFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 43.5

The Key: The Giants are built for UNDERS right now.  They have a pitiful offense that is missing their two best players in Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard.  They are averaging just 16.8 PPG and 275 YPG on the season.  But their defense has been solid in yielding only 342 YPG.  The Eagles are struggling offensively because they are missing 9 starters due to injury.  They average just 329 YPG and give up 355 YPG.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 versus division opponents, off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite are 25-5 over the last 10 years.  The Giants are 31-11 UNDER in their last 42 games off a win by 3 points or less.  The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 years.  Take the UNDER.

6* Ark State/App State Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Arkansas State +13.5

The Key: Arkansas State has shown they can play with two of the better teams in the country.  They covered in a 13-point loss to Memphis and beat Kansas State outright as 15-point dogs.  They also beat a very good Georgia State team last week.  Their only poor performance came in their first game off a Covid break against Coastal Carolina in which the Chanticleers simply played keep away from them and held the ball for over 41 minutes. The Red Wolves are good enough to hang with Appalachian State, which lost 7-17 to Marshall and isn’t as good as they have been the past few years.  Their two wins came over two bad teams in Charlotte and Campbell, and they only beat Charlotte by 15.  Arkansas State is better than Charlotte and will hang here as they try to prove they are contenders in the Sun Belt.  Take Arkansas State.

7* Rays/Dodgers Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay +137

The Key: Tony Gonsolin will get the ball for the Dodgers tonight and he has certainly been a weak link in Los Angeles’ rotation.  Gonsolin sports a 9.95 ERA this postseason.  Blake Snell sports a 3.20 ERA on the year, a 3.20 ERA this postseason and a 2.88 ERA in his postseason career.  The Dodgers don’t hit left-handed pitching as well as right-handed, so I like the price we are getting with Snell and the Rays over Gonsolin and the Dodgers tonight.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Rays/Dodgers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -170

The Key: Clayton Kershaw gets a bad rap for previous playoff failures.  You know he will be pitching with a chip on his shoulder.  And he has held up well in these playoffs thus far with a 3.32 ERA in 3 starts.  He has a 2.44 ERA in all starts this year and remains one of the most dominant starters in baseball.  This line his warranted with the Dodgers big favorites due to their edge on the rubber.  Tyler Glasnow has a 4.23 ERA in 15 starts this year and a 4.66 ERA in 4 postseason starts.  The Dodgers have the way better lineup as well and are coming in sky high in confidence after coming back from 3-1 down to beat the Braves last series.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Chiefs/Bills MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo +5

The Key: This was only going to be about a 1-point spread before the Bills played the Titans on Tuesday.  Well, the Bills lost that game 16-42, but it was a misleading final score. The Bills actually outgained the Titans by 36 yards in that game but gave it away with turnovers.  Now the Bills come back as 5-point home dogs to the Chiefs, which is a 4-point adjustment.  The price is right to back the Bills now.  The Chiefs were exposed last week in their 32-40 loss to the Raiders, and there was nothing fluky about it.  The Raiders gashed the Chiefs for 490 yards and outgained them by 77 yards.  Speaking of gashed, the Chiefs are giving up 158 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  The Bills can run the football and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, which is a great game plan.  And Buffalo can match Kansas City score for score offensively as these offenses have put up similar numbers.  The Bills are averaging 27.8 PPG and 401.8 YPG while the Chiefs are putting up 29.8 PPG and 407.2 YPG.  This is a much closer game than this 5-point spread would indicate, and you have to give the Bills some home-field advantage here too.  Take Buffalo.

6* Braves/Dodgers Game 7 *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -139

The Key: The price is right to back the Dodgers in Game 7 tonight.  They have all the momentum now after winning the last 2 games.  And now the Dodgers are less than a -140 favorite for the first time this entire series.  Ian Anderson is getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to his postseason stats thus far.  I believe with Dodgers getting a 2nd shot at him will pay off in a big way here.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Packers/Bucs NFC *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +1

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Tampa Bay Bucs as home underdogs.  Bruce Arians is 9-1 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less as a head coach in this league.  And it’s rare you get the chance to back Tom Brady as a home dog.  I like that combination.  The Packers don’t get the normal benefit of a bye week because the Bucs also had a makeshift bye of their own after playing the Bears last Thursday.  Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP season, but he’ll be up against an underrated Tampa Bay defense that only yields 298.2 YPG and 5.2 YPP this year.  To compare, the Packers give up 6.4 YPP on defense.  And I think both offenses will have success, but it’s the Tampa Bay defense that I trust to get the critical stops to win this game.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Houston Texans +3.5

The Key: This is a terrible situation for the Tennessee Titans.  They are coming off a huge win Tuesday against the Buffalo Bills.  It was a misleading 42-16 final because the Bills actually outgained them by 36 yards but gave the game away with turnovers.  And now the Titans are working on an extra short week having to get ready for another game Sunday.  They won’t be ready, and keep in mind they were fortunate to win their first 3 games of the season against some bad teams.  They beat the Jaguars (33-30), Vikings (31-30) and Broncos (16-14) by a combined 6 points.  Those 3 teams are a combined 3-11 on the season.  The Texans were rejuvenated with the firing of head coach Bill O’Brien last week.  Romeo Crennel took over and led them to a 30-14 win over the Jaguars.  Their offense racked up nearly 500 total yards in the win.  That Houston offense should be able to do whatever it wants to against a Titans defense giving up 409.3 YPG and 6.3 YPP on the season.  And the Texans need this game more if they want to stay alive in the division with the Titans being 4-0 and the Texans being just 1-4.  The Texans have played the much tougher schedule though with their 4 losses coming to the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Vikings.  They are undervalued right now because of that tough schedule.  Take Houston.

6* Lions/Jaguars Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Detroit -3

The Key: The Detroit Lions’ 3 losses this season have come to the Bears, Packers and Saints who are a combined 11-3 on the season.  They also went on the road and beat the 3-2 Cardinals.  No team has played a tougher schedule than them.  And now they finally get a break and a bye week to get ready for the Jaguars.  This is a Jacksonville team coming off 4 straight losses by an average of 11.3 PPG.  The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off a bye.  Take Detroit.

6* Braves/Dodgers Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -147

The Key: The Dodgers came up clutch yesterday.  After falling behind 2-0 through 3 innings, they rallied for a 7-3 victory.  And now they force a Game 7 with another victory Saturday behind ace Walker Buehler.  Buehler is 24-9 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 70 career appearances including 61 starts.  He is one of the best starters in baseball and exactly the guy you want to have in this Game 6 situation.  The Dodgers are 42-17 in their last 59 games off a win.  Los Angeles is 39-13 in its last 52 games overall.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Memphis +3.5

The Key: The Memphis Tigers have had this game circled all offseason.  They have lost 13 straight to UCF and enough is enough.  Five of those losses have come by a TD or less and many have been recently.  UCF is ripe for the picking this year as evidenced by their 26-34 loss to Tulsa as 20.5-point favorites last time out.  They are missing several players to injury or personal reasons, and they are the most penalized team in the country.  The Tigers are 14-4 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less to a conference opponent and are coming off a 3-point loss to a very good SMU team on the road.  The Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a loss.  The Tigers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games off a bye week.  The Tigers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 home games.  The home team is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 matchups, and the Tigers are 4-0 ATS int heir last 4 home matchups with UCF.  Take Memphis.

6* Pitt/Miami ACC *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +13.5

The Key: The Pitt Panthers could easily be 5-0 this year.  But they are coming off 2 straight crushing 1-point losses and want to rebound in a big way here if they want any chance to win the Coastal.  They take on the Miami Hurricanes, who got a dose of reality latst week in losing 17-42 to Clemson.  They were outgained by 340 yards by the Tigers and held to just 210 total yards.  Pitt has an elite defense that only gives up 264 YPG and 4.2 YPP this year.  Their defense will keep them in this game, and their offense has been great through the air and will test this Miami defense.  This spread is way higher than it should be.  Take Pittsburgh.