Sports Picks & Predictions

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Troy +14.5

The Key: This line is an overreaction to Troy's 53-14 loss to Appalachian State. The Trojans are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last three seasons after giving up 42 points or more in their last game. They've lost these six games on average but only by 1.1 points. South Alabama is 4-2 but hasn't played as difficult a schedule as Troy. The Jaguars have been a poor investment at home where they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15. Troy has won the past two meetings, and while it likely goes down here, it should be able to keep this one within the number. Take the points.

7* NFL Thursday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Chargers +10

The Key: This line is an overreaction to recent results. The Chargers have failed to cover the spread the past two weeks while struggling to win at Oakland and losing at home to Kansas City. Denver, meanwhile, has rattled off three consecutive double-digit victories. The fact of the matter is the Chargers will be extremely motivated following Sunday's loss. They'll also be out for revenge for a loss in Denver in last season's playoffs. The Chargers have been very competitive in this series. They have won or lost by eight points or fewer in 15 of the last 17 meetings, including the last four. The Chargers are 11-4-2 ATS in those 17 meetings and 7-0-4 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Denver. It is also worth noting that they are 11-3 ATS as an underdog under coach McCoy, 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus winning teams and 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games versus teams with a winning home record. You want to fade favorites that have held their last two opponents to 5.5 yards per pass or less when they are matched up against a team that has given up 7.0 yards per pass or more to its last two opponents. This system has produced an 87-48 ATS record since 1983, including a perfect 9-0 ATS mark the last three seasons. Take the points.

6* ACC National TV Annihilator on Virginia Tech +3

The Key: You don't get the chance to back Virginia Tech in the home underdog role often, but it's been wise to do so when given the opportunity. The Hokies are 9-1 ATS as a home dog since 1992 and have won by an average score of 34.4 to 12.8 in this situation. Miami hasn't been the same on the road where it is 0-4 ATS going back to last season. It is also 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a cover. The Hurricanes have been an overall poor investment of late, going 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 conference contests. VA Tech has won or lost by fewer than three points in seven of the last eight meetings. The Hurricanes are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Take the points.

6* World Series Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Royals -108

The Key: I like the Royals to bounce back in Game 2 behind a gem from Ventura. He's never started against the Giants, and that's to his advantage because they won't be familiar with his stuff. They'll have trouble catching up to his 100 mph heat. Ventura has a 3.27 ERA in home starts this season. The Royals are 5-0 in his last five starts and 5-0 in his last five starts versus winning clubs. They are also 8-0 in his starts in the second half of this season versus teams that strand 6.9 or less baserunners per game. Peavy has struggled on the road where he has a 4.37 ERA this season. He's especially struggled at Kauffman where he has a 6.42 ERA in seven career starts. His clubs are 0-5 in his last five starts in Kansas City. Take the Royals.

6* World Series Game 1 *CA$H COW* on Giants -103

The Key: The Giants have far more postseason experience than the Royals and have proven themselves this time of year. They are 6-0 in their last six World Series games and 4-0 in their last four World Series road games. They are also 4-0 in their last four series openers. Bumgarner has been unbelievable on the road where he has a 1.96 ERA. Being a lefty, he should also be able to keep Kansas City from running wild. Shields has a 3.64 home ERA on the season and hasn't looked good in these playoffs, posting a 5.62 ERA. The Giants are 17-5 in Bumgarners last 22 road starts. They are also 8-1 this season in his road starts versus teams that average 2.75 or less extra base hits per game. They are 9-1 this season in his road starts when the money line is +100 to -150. Bumgarner has an ERA of 0.00 in two World Series starts while giving up only five hits in 15 innings of work. Take the Giants.

6* Sun Belt Conference *CA$H COW* on UL-Lafayette +3

The Key: UL-Lafayette returns 17 starters from a team that went on the road last season and defeated Arkansas State 23-7 while outgaining the Red Wolves 470-168. While Arkansas State is improved and will be motivated by that loss, they are getting too much respect from odds makers by being installed at the road favorite. The Ragin' Cajuns are 7-1 in their last eight home games versus Arkansas State. The Red Wolves racked up 384 yards on the ground in their most recent win. That's an impressive feat, no doubt. However, they are 0-10 ATS after gaining 300 rushing yards or more in a game since 1992 and have lost by an average score of 28.5 to 18.8 in this spot. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Steelers -3

The Key: The Steelers have prided themselves on defense under coach Mike Tomlin so you can bet last week's 31-10 loss at Cleveland hasn't been sitting well. Look for Pittsburgh to respond behind a strong defensive effort against one of the weaker offensive teams in the NFL. The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. They are also 6-0 ATS the last two seasons when checking in with losses in two of their last three games. They've won these six contests by an average score of 27.3 to 18.8. In addition, Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS under coach Tomlin following a road loss of 14 points or more. The Texans have been a weak Monday Night Football play, going 0-6 ATS in their last six under the Monday night lights. Houston has been outgained in each of its games. It has been aided by creating turnovers, but Pittsburgh has done a great job of taking care of the football. Lay the points with the better team at home.
 

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Broncos -6.5

The Key: This is a tough spot for the 49ers, who are heading into the thin air with on a short week after playing Monday. They haven't fared well in this situation, going 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. They are on a 4-13 ATS slide in road games after playing Monday Night Football. Kaepernick was fantastic last week. The Rams made him beat them through the air, and he did. These Broncos aren't the Rams. Typically, the 49ers must establish the run for Kaepernick to be effective. They'll have a tough time doing that against Denver's stout run defense which ranks 4th in the NFL. The Broncos have held their last two opponents to a combined 68 yards on the ground, and they are on a 7-0 ATS run after allowing 50 or less rushing yards in two straight games. With Denver able to control San Francisco's running game, it will have an opportunity to go after Kaepernick with Miller and Ware, two of the best pass rushers in the league. The Broncos are 18-6 ATS under coach Fox when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Also, you want to take home favorites that allowed 5.5 passing yards per attempt or less last game in a matchup of teams that outpass their opponents by an average of 1.5 yards per pass or more. Doing so has produced a 24-4 ATS mark since 1983. Teams fitting this system have been favored by an average of 6.0 points but have won by an average of 14.0. Lay the number.
 

7* NFL Game of the Year on Giants +7

The Key: Dallas has won five in a row and is now being extremely overvalued following last week's upset win in Seattle. The Giants were rolling before taking it on the chin in Philadelphia. That loss assures us they will be mighty hungry when they take the field Sunday. Having suffered a pair of narrow losses to the Cowboys last season adds fuel to their fire. This has been a highly competitive series. In fact, the Giants have won or lost by seven points or less in nine of the last 10 meetings in the series, including six straight. Dallas has been a downright terrible home favorite under Garrett and Romo. It has been favored at home just once thus far this season, laying 4.5 against the Texans, and failed to cover as it won by only three points in OT. The Cowboys are 10-23 ATS as a favorite under Garrett, including 6-16 ATS when laying points at home. The Boys are 11-21 ATS as a home favorite with Romo under center. Manning is 4-1 SU and ATS at Jerry World, and I expect the Giants to give Dallas all it wants and more here. Take the points.

6* NFL Vegas Line Mistake on Falcons +7

The Key: This line is an overreaction to last week's results. The Falcons are 14-5 ATS under coach Smith following a loss of 10 points or more, bouncing back to win by an average score of 28.3 to 22.6. The Falcons are also 14-4 ATS under Smith after being held to 14 points or less and have won by an average score of 30.5 to 20.2 in this spot. The Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win of more than 14 points, 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a cover and 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards. The Ravens are also on a 1-5 ATS skid versus teams with losing records and a 5-12 ATS slide in home games versus teams with losing road marks. The Falcons are one of the most explosive offensive teams in the NFL. They'll have enough offense to keep this one within the number.

6* National TV Annihilator on Florida State -12

The Key: Florida State has covered just one spread this season, partly because the defending national champs have been overvalued and partly because they've had trouble getting up for inferior competition. They'll have no problem getting up for the undefeated Fighting Irish, and I expect them to send a message. Notre Dame is yet to play a true road game this season. It has played a pair of neutral field contests but had the majority of the crowd support in each. This will be the most hostile environment it’s seen in quite some time, and I don't think it will be ready. FSU has handled its business at home where it is 9-3 ATS in its last 12. FSU's 6-0 start is also significant because it is on a 14-4 ATS run in home games following six consecutive straight up victories or more and has won these games by an average of 34.0 points. Playing home favorites off two straight double-digit wins over conference foes, that are up against an opponent that's coming off a home game where both it and its opponent scored 31 points or more, has produced a 34-11 ATS mark since 1992. Lay the points.

7* MAC Game of the Year on Ball State +8

The Key: Off a huge win at Northern Illinois, it's going to be mighty difficult for the Chippewas to bring the same energy to the field this Saturday. Ball State will have no trouble getting up for this contest following five consecutive defeats, including an ugly loss last week where it blew a 28-7 lead. While the Cardinals have dropped five in a row, they've been very competitive with three of these losses coming by seven points or less. There's no doubt Ball State is better than its 1-5 record. The Cardinals played Toledo tougher on the road than Central Michigan did. Ball State lost 34-23 to the Rockets while getting outgained 470-351. Central Mich lost 42-28 while getting outgained 543-386. The Cardinals have been a phenomenal investment on the road over the years at 42-16 ATS in their last 58. They are even on a 23-11 ATS run on the road versus teams with winning home records. The Chippewas haven't been a worthwhile investment at home where they are 6-13 ATS in their last 19. It's also worth noting that Ball State is 14-5 ATS in Saturday road games under coach Lembo, which speaks to how well he prepares his troops. Take the points.

7* Big Ten Game of the Week on Maryland -4.5

The Key: At home and having had a bye week to prepare, Maryland will take care of business against Iowa. The Terrapins were clubbed by Ohio State last time out but are on a 24-10 ATS run following a loss of 21 points or more. They are on a 12-3 ATS run in home games following a defeat of 28 points or more. It is also worth noting that they are on a 25-10 ATS run after being outgained by 225 yards or more. Iowa is 5-1 but really hasn't looked that impressive. It lost to an Iowa State team that's 2-4, should have lost to Ball State (1-5), had trouble putting away FCS Northern Iowa, trailed Pitt by double digits at the half and trailed Purdue 10-0. Iowa defeated Indiana 45-29 at home last week but was outgained by the Hoosiers. That game could have easily been a much different story had Iowa not come up with three turnovers, including a pick six, and had Indiana's starting QB not gone down with an injury. Maryland went on the road and defeated Indiana 37-15 while outgaining the Hoosiers 484-332. Don't expect Iowa's first Big Ten trip to Maryland to be a pleasant one. Lay the points.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Boise State -16.5

The Key: Motivated by last season's one point loss at Fresno State and having had an extra week to prepare, Boise State should roll to a comfortable win. The Broncos have made good use of their bye weeks over the years and are 13-4 ATS in home games off a bye since 1992 and have won these contests by an average of 22.8 points. The Boise State defense wasn't at its best in the past two games. However, both of those were on the road. The Broncos are only giving up 16.5 ppg at home this season and history suggests the "D" will be ready to go tonight. Consider that Boise State is 8-0 ATS since 1992 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two consecutive games. It has won these contests by an average score of 42.1 to 17.1. The Broncos have completely dominated the Bulldogs over the years and are 12-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including a 6-0 SU and ATS at home during this stretch. These six wins have come by an average of 33.2 points. Bet Boise State.

7* AFC East Game of the Month on Jets +10

The Key: The Jets have lost five straight without covering a single spread during this span. However, only two of these losses have come by more than 10 points, and it should be only one because the Jets lose by only seven and cover last week against Denver if Geno Smith doesn't throw w picks six in the closing seconds. Despite the rough stretch, New York will have no problem getting up for hated division rival New England. The Jets have won or lost by fewer than 10 points in nine of the last 13 meetings. Three of the last four meetings have been decided by three points. You want to back road teams that have been defeated by 42 points or more against the spread over their last five games if they carry a win percentage of 25% or worse as doing so has produced a 34-10 ATS record the last 10 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 9.5 points on average but have lost by only 6.9 points on average. This system is 14-2 ATS the last three seasons. Take the Jets.

6* NLCS "Total" Annihilator on Cardinals/Giants Under 6.0

The Key: The Cardinals won't go down without a fight. A lot has been made of Wainwright's arm troubles, but he is one of the best competitors in baseball, and I expect him to be on tonight. Wainwright has been at his best on the where he has a 2.07 ERA. The under is 8-3-1 in his last 12 starts following a team loss the previous game and 5-1 in his last six starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The under is 4-0 in the Giants' last four games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150. Bumgarner is dialed in with a 0.76 ERA this postseason. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 7-1 in his last 8 starts on regular rest (4 days). The under is 8-2 in the Cardinals' last 10 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150. The Giants bullpen has been getting plenty of work, but that likely changes here as Bumgarner has been going deep. Regardless the SF pen has been fantastic all season and has shown that it can perform well when not fully rested. The Giants are 8-0 under this season with a tired bullpen that has thrown 13+ innings over the last 3 games. We have seen only 3.6 total runs scored on average in this spot. Take the under.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Pitt pk

The Key: Virginia Tech has been one of the worst investments in college football in recent years. The Hokies are 14-29-2 ATS in their last 45 games. They are 2-0 SU and ATS on the road this season, but this is far from the norm as they are still only 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road contests. It's also worth noting that they are 3-11 ATS following a cover and 1-5 ATS coming off a bye week. The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six following a bye and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games versus teams with a winning road record. Pitt has lost three straight following a 3-0 start so it will be highly motivated. Plus, it lost last season's matchup at VA Tech so it will be out for some revenge. The Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings at Pittsburgh. Take Pitt.

7* NLCS Game of the Year on Cardinals -102

The Key: I fully expect the Cardinals to even the series. They are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss, and they have the edge on the mound with Miller, who has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts. The Cardinals are 5-1 in his last six starts. The line has moved to the point where the Cardinals are now favored at some books so it is worth noting that they are 6-1 in Miller's last seven starts as a road favorite. It is also worth noting that the Giants are 2-12 in their last 14 games as a home underdog and 1-6 in Vogelsong's last seven starts as a home underdog. Vogelsong has given up four runs or more in four of his last six starts. The Giants are 3-7 in his last 10 starts and 3-8 in his last 11 home starts. Vogelsong has an ERA of 5.11 in 11 career starts against the Cardinals. Miller is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in two career starts versus the Giants. The Cardinals saw Vogelsong twice this season while the Giants haven't seen Miller since June 1, 2013. That also bodes well for the Cards. St. Louis is 16-6 this season when seeking revenge for a one run loss to an opponent. Take the Cards.    

6* MLB Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Orioles -112

The Key: I think last night's rainout works in Baltimore's favor. The Royals have been red-hot, and when a team is that hot the last thing it wants is extended time off. The Orioles will be ready. This is basically a must-win game for them knowing how difficult it would be to win four straight. I like them to come through here behind a nice outing from Chen, who has a 3.33 ERA on the road this season. He was lights out versus the Royals this season. Baltimore went 2-0 in his starts against them while he gave up just three runs in 12 1-3 innings. The Orioles are 6-0 in Chen's last six starts as a favorite. Guthrie has an ERA of 4.16 at home on the season, and Kansas City went 0-2 in his starts versus the Orioles, during which he gave up six runs in 15 innings. The Royals are 1-4 in his last five starts as a home underdog. Baltimore is 20-8 this season when playing with double revenge and 15-5 this season when out for revenge for an upset loss at home. Take Baltimore.

7* Sun Belt Total of the Year on UL-Lafayette/Texas State Under 63

The Key: Each of these teams combined for 65 points in their last game, and they combined for 72 points when they met last season. Yet, we see a total of only 63.0 points. It appears odds makers are begging for action on the over. We won't take the bait. Neither team has played since Oct. 4, and the extra preparation time will benefit the defenses.  Offensively, both teams look to run the football. That bodes well for us since doing so keeps the clock moving and shortens the game. The Ragin' Cajuns haven't been the same offensive force on the road and are 6-1 under in their last 7 games played away from home. Take the under.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Rams +4

The Key: St. Louis has played well in its last two games against good Dallas and Philadelphia teams. It led the Cowboys 21-0 and lost to them by just three points. Dallas just went to Seattle and upset the reigning Super Bowl champs. The Rams also played the now 5-1 Eagles to a six-point game on the road last time out. Motivated by those defeats as well as a pair of losses to the 49ers last season, I expect the Rams to play some inspired football under the Monday night lights. The 49ers have a big one against Denver on deck and will likely already be looking ahead to that showdown. The 49ers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win while the Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. You want to back home underdogs or pickems that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games if they are a team with a win percentage of 25% or less playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a proven 118-63 (65%) ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football "Total" Annihilator on Giants/Eagles Under 50.5

The Key: You want to play the under in division matchups when the total is 49.5 or higher as doing so has produced a 74-40 mark the last five seasons. In addition, you want to take the under in division matchups when the total is 49.5 or higher if the teams are off a home win as doing so has produced a 57-27 mark since 1983. This system has produced a 17-4 record the last three seasons. The Giants are 26-12 under in road games when the total is 45.5 or higher under coach Coughlin. They are also 6-0 under in road games versus teams that give up 130 rushing yards per game or more during Coughlin's watch. We have seen just 39.0 total points scored on average in these six contests. The Giants have run the ball a lot the last three weeks, and I expect them to continue to do so Sunday. That keeps the clock moving and shortens the game. The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two in Philadelphia. We haven't seen more than 45 total points scored in any of these games. Take the under.

7* MLB Playoffs Game of the Week on Cardinals -130

The Key: The Cardinals are a resilient team with a never-say-die attitude, and I fully expect them to bounce back strong in Game 2. Lynn has been consistently good at home where he has a 2.50 ERA in 18 starts this season. Peavy has been suspect on the road where he has a 4.36 ERA in 17 starts. The Cards are 12-2 this season in Lynn's home starts when the money line is +100 to -150. In addition, you want to fade underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 when they are up against an NL starter that has an ERA of 3.00 or less if they have a team batting average of .255 or worse and are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last three starts. Doing so has produced a 57-15 mark the last five seasons. Take St. Louis.

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Raiders +7.5

The Key: The Raiders needed a change, and I expect them to rally behind interim coach Tony Sparano. It is also to their benefit that they've had an extra week to prepare for this contest. San Diego has looked good during its four-game win streak but only one of the wins came on the road. The Chargers have won by more than seven points just three times in 12 road games dating back to the beginning of last season. One of these was a 10-point loss at Oakland in a game where it was favored by 6.5. You want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that have been held to 14 points or less in two straight games as doing so has produced a 17-4 ATS mark the last three seasons and a 29-10 ATS record the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. Take the points.

6* Sunday NFL Early *CA$H COW* on Jets +10.5

The Key: The Broncos covered the spread for the first time this season last week. They clearly benefited from their bye week as they were able to put together a dominant performance. But now they hit the road for just the second time this season, and they do so without starting running back Montee Ball. Denver was struggling on the ground with Ball and doesn't figure to get much of anything against a New York defense that is allowing only 83.0 rushing yards per game and ranks sixth in total defense with just 320.8 yards per game allowed. With New York not having to respect Denver's running game, it will be able to put a hand in the dirt and really get after Manning. The Jets are tied with Buffalo for the league's most sacks with 17. The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. You want to back October underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points (line at 10.0 at most books at time of report, but I was able to get the hook at an affordable price) that have been beaten by 35 points or more against the spread in their last three games. Doing so has produced a 23-5 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Take the points.

6* NLCS *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -120

The Key: Bumgarner doesn't have a good track record versus St. Louis. He has an ERA of 4.78 in eight career starts against the Cardinals and has allowed five runs or more in three of his last four starts against them. The Giants are 1-5 in his last six starts versus St. Louis. Wainwright has an ERA of 2.86 in 11 starts against the Giants and has held them to two runs or less in five of his last six starts. The Cardinals are 5-1 in those starts. It is also worth noting that Wainwright has a 1.59 ERA in five NLCS appearances while Bumgarner has a 7.84 ERA in three NLCS appearance. The Cardinals are 6-0 in Wainwright's last six starts and 10-0 in his Saturday starts over the last two seasons. The Redbirds are 8-0 in their last eight home games versus southpaw starters and 4-0 in their last four home games versus teams with a winning road record. Take St. Louis.

6* NCAAF Saturday Night Blowout on Texas-San Antonio -12

The Key: UTSA has underachieved to this point. After upsetting Houston and giving Arizona all it wanted, it has disappointed in its last three games. Last week's pathetic showing against New Mexico should provide the wake-up call this experienced Roadrunner squad needed. FIU has been able to rattle off back-to-back upset wins despite being outgained in both because it came up with a total of 10 takeaways. UTSA has done a solid job of taking care of the football this season, averaging only 1.4 turnovers per game. Without the Roadrunners coughing it up, the Golden Panthers will have a tough time putting points on the board. Lay the points.

7* NCAAF Sandwich Game of the Year on North Carolina +17

The Key: Off a big win over Stanford and with a huge showdown at Florida State on deck, Notre Dame is in prime position for a letdown. North Carolina hasn't covered a spread all season, and we are getting a great number as a result. The Fighting Irish are 0-7 ATS in home games since 1992 after finishing under the total in four consecutive games or more. They have lost by an average score of 28.7 to 26.9 in this situation. The Irish are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home and 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games after being held to less than 20 points in their previous game. You want to back teams like UNC that have allowed an average of 525.0 yards or more per game over their last three games if they average 4.8-5.6 yards per play and are up against a team that gives up 4.2 to 4.8 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 26-7 ATS mark since 1992. Take the points.

6* ACC Atlantic Game of the Week on Clemson -9.5

The Key: Louisville enters Week 7 with the top defense in college football (statistically), but it is yet to see an offense like the one Clemson brings to the table. The Tigers average nearly 500 ypg, and I expect them to do a whole lot of damage through the air in this one. The Clemson defense deserves its due as well. It ranks 10th in the nation with 290.4 ypg allowed. I like it to stifle a Louisville offense that averages just 388.3 ypg. The Cardinals have relied on takeaways to help them put points on the board, but they don't figure to get much help from Clemson, which hasn't committed more than one turnover in a game this season. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS after four consecutive games of committing one turnover or less under coach Swinney. They have won by an average score of 41.7 to 17.8 in this spot. Clemson is also 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14.0 points under Swinney, winning by an average score of 43.7 to 20.7 in this spot. Lay the points.

6* ACC Coastal Game of the Week on Duke +3

The Key: Motivated by a double-digit loss to Miami last time out as well as 10 straight losses to Georgia Tech, Duke will be leaving it all out on the field Saturday. It has had an extra week to prepare for Tech's rushing attack, and that will make all the difference. Now is the time to fade the Yellow Jackets. They are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons following a home win against a conference opponent. They have lost by an average score of 37.0 to 23.2 in this spot. Duke is a fantastic 14-5 ATS since the start of last season and is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a spread defeat. The Blue Devils are on a 6-1 ATS run versus teams with a winning record while the Yellow Jackets are on a 2-7 ATS slide versus teams with a winning mark. Take the points.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights Game of the Month on UNLV +10

The Key: I expect UNLV to keep this one within the number behind a strong effort. The Rebels will be extremely motivated following four consecutive losses. The last three have come on the road so they will be chomping at the bit to take the field in front of the home fans. The Rebels showed well in their last home game, racking up 499 yards in a 48-34 loss to Northern Illinois. UNLV was tied with the Huskies in the fourth quarter despite spotting them a 28-5 advantage. I don't expect the Rebels to spot Fresno State a lead like that. UNLV was crushed 38-14 by a much better Fresno State side last season, and that loss provides added motivation for the home team. UNLV is 16-5 ATS in home games since 1992 after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. It is 9-2 ATS under coach Hauck in home games after two or more consecutive straight up losses. It has won by an average score of 32.1 to 27.3 in this spot. Take the points.

6* ALCS "Total" Annihilator on Royals/Orioles Under 7.0 

The Key: The under gets the call in Game 1 of the ALCS with Shields and Tillman getting the ball. Shields has been at his best on the road where he has a 2.97 ERA. Tillman has posted a 2.59 ERA at home. In addition, both teams have excellent bullpens. The Royals are on a 37-17-5 unders run as an underdog of +110 to +150. They are on a 4-0 unders run in Shield's last four starts as a road underdog. The Orioles are 7-1-1 under in their last nine as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 22-10-2 in Tillman's last 34 starts as a favorite. The under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings between these teams, including 6-1 in the last seven in Baltimore. Take the under.

7* NFL Thursday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Texans +3.5

The Key: This is a tough spot for Indy playing on the road in a short week. To make matters worse, it will face a hungry Houston squad. The Texans are coming off an overtime loss to Dallas, and in case that's not enough motivation they'll draw from three straight losses to the Colts. Indy has struggled in Houston where it is 1-3 in the last four meetings with the lone win coming by only three points. The Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, and the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. In addition, you want to fade road favorite that outgain opponents by an average of 70.0 passing yards per game or more if they allowed 5.5 passing yards or less per attempt last game. Doing so has produced a 67-32 ATS mark since 1983. This system is 15-4 ATS the last five seasons.

6* ESPN National TV Annihilator on BYU +3

The Key: This line is an overreaction to last week's result when BYU lost 35-20 to Utah State as a 21-point favorite.  For starters, that was a rivalry game so it got Utah State's best shot. Secondly, the Cougars lost QB Taysom Hill for the season so backup Christian Stewart was not prepared to be thrust into the action. Having had nearly a week to practice with the first-team offense, I expect Stewart to be better.  UCF is dreadful offensively with its poor QB play being a big reason why. The Knights have been forced to run the football because they are getting just 178.5 passing yards per game. That plays right into BYU's hands as it ranks 11th in the nation with just 98.2 rushing yards allowed per game. The Cougars have been exceptional in bounce-back spots at 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. They are even 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home. Take the points.

6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -170

The Key: Kershaw will be looking for redemption when he takes the mound today after not being able to hold a 6-1 lead in Game 1. My money's on the best pitcher in baseball here. The southpaw sensation will be working on three days' rest but is 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA in three career starts on three days' rest. The Dodgers are 10-0 in Kershaw's last 10 road starts and 6-0 in his last six road starts versus winning clubs. They are 13-0 in the second half of the season the last three seasons in his road starts versus NL clubs with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse and has won these games by an average score of 6.0 to 1.7. Miller is making his first career postseason start for the Cardinals after posted a 6.23 ERA in three previous postseason appearances spanning 4 1-3 innings. I expect this moment to be a little too big for him. The Dodgers aren't a big power team, but the Cardinals are 0-7 this season in Miller's home starts versus teams that average 0.9 home runs per game or less and have lost these games by an average score of 5.7 to 1.9. Take LA.

6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -102

The Key: I like the Cardinals with Lackey on the mound. In 19 postseason appearances he has a 3.03 ERA. Lackey thrives this time of year because few pitchers are as competitive and have as much self-belief. The Cardinals are 5-0 in his home starts, during which he's posted a 2.38 ERA. Ryu hasn’t started since Sept. 12 due to shoulder irritation, and I expect him to show a little rust as a result. The Cardinals are 6-0 in their last six home games versus a left-handed starter. The Dodgers are 0-4 in their last four playoff road games and 18-40 in the last 58 meetings in St. Louis. Take the Cardinals.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Redskins +7.5

The Key: Washington will be hungry after getting crushed 45-14 on this field by the NY Giants last time out. As if that's not enough motivation, the Redskins were defeated on this field the last time they faced Seattle in the 2013 playoffs, blowing a 14-0 lead in the game. Despite boasting a stellar secondary, Seattle has given up an average of 286 yards per game through the air in its last two games. Washington is throwing the football well with Kirk Cousins under center, and it possesses the running game to keep the Seahawks off balance. After back-to-back strong performance, Cousins had a rough outing last time out. That poor performances assures us he'll be focused and ready to bounce back strong. You want to back underdogs or pickems that average 7.5 passing yards or more per attempt following three consecutive games of averaging 7.0 passing yards per attempt or more. Doing so has produced a 22-4 ATS mark the last five seasons and an 11-1 ATS record the last three seasons. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Patriots +1.5

The Key: The Patriots were embarrassed on Monday Night Football and have been taking a beating in the media as a result. I expect Brady and Belichick to do what they've done time and time again - respond. The Patriots have a short week to prepare while the Bengals have had an extra week, but motivation is the best medicine. New England will draw extra motivation from last season's seven-point loss in Cincinnati. The Patriots are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss. They are 17-6 ATS under Belichick off a double-digit defeat, bouncing back to win by an average score of 27.9 to 19.5 in these spots. The Patriots are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a winning road record. You want to fade road teams off a win of 21 points or more when they are up against a team that was held to three points or less in the first half of their last game. Doing so has produced a 34-10 ATS mark the last 10 seasons and a 13-2 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take New England.

7* AFC Game of the Year on Jets +7

The Key: Off three consecutive defeats, New York will be highly motivated when it takes the field Sunday. The Jets have yet to cover a spread this season while the Chargers have covered in each of their games, and we are catching a great number as a result. New York's record is not indicative of how good it is. It is outgaining opponents by an average of 75 yards on the season. Consider that the Chargers have outgained their foes by just 27 yards on average. The Jets are averaging more yards per game and allowing less yards per game than San Diego. Turnovers have let the Jets down the past couple weeks, but they are catching a big enough number here to cover the spread even if they lose the turnover battle. Teams off blowout victories tend to be overvalued. The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 14 points and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. It is also worth noting that they are 0-7 ATS in home games the last three seasons following a game where they finished over the total. They have lost in this situation by an average score of 25.0 to 14.4. The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in San Diego. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

6* ALDS *CA$H COW* on Tigers -174

The Key: The Tigers have the edge on the mound with Price, who has a 3.54 ERA at home and a 2.93 ERA in day starts. Norris has a 4.80 ERA on the road and a 5.13 ERA in day starts. Fading Norris when he gets the ball against the Tigers has never lost. His clubs are 0-4 in his four career starts against them, and he has an ERA of 6.57 in these starts. Price is 7-3 with an ERA of 2.82 in 17 career starts versus the Orioles. In addition, the Tigers have won 10 of 14 at home, six of their last seven home games versus winning teams and six of their last eight Divisional Playoffs home games. Take Detroit.

6* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Bills +7.5

The Key: Off back-to-back losses, the Bills will be lacking no motivation. I also expect them to get a boost from Kyle Orton taking over under center. The veteran brings experience to the huddle and has performed well at all of his stops. Backing the bills off two or more consecutive spread losses has been a good move as doing so has produced a 44-27 ATS mark since 1992. Backing them off a road loss has resulted in a near-perfect 10-1 ATS record the last three seasons. Detroit has won three of four to start the season, but is a dismal 10-27 ATS since 1992 following a stretch of three wins in four games. The Lions are also a lousy 24-44 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points the last 22 years. And, they are 0-8 following a non-conference contest over the last three seasons, losing in this spot by an average score of 27.5 to 23.3. Take the points.

6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -161

The Key: Greinke at home has been one of the best bets in baseball for several years now. The Dodgers are 24-6 in Greinke's last 30 home starts and 5-0 in his last five starts overall. The Cardinals are 0-4 in Lynn's last four starts. In addition, Greinke's clubs are 52-14 all-time in his home starts versus teams like the Cardinals that average 2.75 extra base hits or less per game. His clubs are 30-7 the last three seasons in his starts as a favorite of -150 or more. Greinke has a 2.55 ERA at home this season and a 2.34 ERA in his last eight outings. He posted a 2.57 ERA with a .189 opponents' batting average in 21 innings over three starts in last season's playoffs. Two of those starts came against the Cards. Lynn has a 4.81 ERA in 21 postseason appearances and a 5.56 ERA in five postseason starts. He has a 9.00 ERA versus the Dodgers this season. Lastly, Greinke's clubs are 7-0 in his last seven home starts versus St. Louis.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan +3

The Key: Brady Hoke is taking a beating in the media after back-to-back double-digit home defeats and for his handling of QB Shane Morris following a head injury. He knows his job is on the line, and I expect him to have the Wolverines ready to go in the face of adversity. It's still early in the season, and I like Big Blue's chances of regrouping. Michigan has more talent than Rutgers, and that talent will be motivated following a pathetic effort.  The Wolverines amassed just 83 yards on the ground and 88 yards through the air against Minnesota. The Wolverines are 7-0 ATS under Hoke after a game with 125 passing yards or less and have won by an average score of 40.6 to 15.1 in this spot. Teams headed up by Hoke are 14-2 ATS in road games after a game where they were held to 100 rushing yards or less. The Michigan defense has been really good, holding opponents to just 283 yards per game. That's good enough for 9th in the nation. It's time for the offense to respond, and I like its chances versus a Rutgers stop unit that ranks 83rd in the country with 409 yards allowed per game. Take the points.

6* Under the Radar *CA$H COW* on Appalachian State +4.5

The Key: Appalachian State came out flat last Thursday, but it was in a tough spot. Not only was it off a heart-breaking one-point loss at So. Miss (scored a TD with six seconds left but missed the tying PAT), but it was playing its second straight road game and with only four days of prep time. Playing last Thursday helps the Mountaineers here, however. They are home and have had two more days than South Alabama to gear up. The Mountaineers fit neatly into an extremely profitable situation. In a matchup between teams that returned eight or more offensive starters, you want to back home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points if they were outgained by 125 yards or more last game. Doing so has produced a 46-16 ATS mark since 1992. This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last three seasons. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on Navy -4

The Key: Off back-to-back upset losses at home, I expect a motivated Navy team to take its frustrations out all over an Air Force side it has owned. The Midshipmen won last year's battle 28-10, and they are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings. Air Force comes in riding high off a big upset win over Boise State and won't be as hungry here as a result. Navy is 25-12 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive losses since 1992. It is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games and 6-0 ATS under coach Niumatalolo in road games against teams with a win percentage of 75% or higher. The Midshipmen are also 5-0 ATS in their last five at Air Force. The Falcons are 0-7 ATS the last three seasons following a cover, losing by an average score of 36.1 to 22.9 in this spot. Lay the points.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Diego State +3

The Key: I like SDSU tonight even with Nick Bawden expected to start in place of the injured Quinn Kaehler. The Aztecs hold the motivational edge as they seek revenge for two straight losses in the series. The Aztecs lost last season's meeting by seven points in OT but outgained the Bulldogs 507-341. The defensive effort in that game was outstanding considering how explosive the Fresno State offense was. This Fresno State offense isn't nearly the same caliber, but the SDSU "D" has remained solid. The Aztecs are allowing 383 ypg while the Bulldogs are giving up 509. The defensive side of the football often let the Bulldogs down last season, but they had the horses on offense to outscore the opposition. The offense isn't the same well-oiled machine this year. The Aztecs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Take the points.

7* MLB Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -146

The Key: I like the Angels to even up the series behind Shoemaker. They are 17-4 all-time in his starts, including 7-0 in his last seven. Shoemaker has held the opposition to three runs or fewer in 10 straight starts and has held it to one run or none in five of his last six. Ventura was roughed up his final start of the regular season and then struggled in Tuesday's wild-card game, giving up a two-run homer and recording only one out on 13 pitches. I think he catches the Angels at a bad time too. Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Howie Kendrick and Josh Hamilton combined to go 0 for 18 last night, and they'll be very focused here as a result. Take LA.

6* Pac-12 Power Play on Oregon -23.5

The Key: Oregon got all it wanted and more its last time out at Washington State. If that's not enough motivation, the Ducks will certainly draw from last season's ugly 42-16 loss to these Wildcats. It bodes extremely well for us that favorites of 21.5 to 31.0 points off a bye are 51-17 ATS the last 10 seasons. It also bodes well for us that Arizona is 0-6 ATS in road games versus teams that average 450.0 ypg or more under coach Rodriguez. It has lost these contests by 25.7 points on average. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. Oregon is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game. Lay the points.

6* ALDS *CA$H COW* on Angels -173

The Key: The Angels are worth the price tonight with Weaver on the mound. He's been outstanding at home where he has a 2.68 ERA, and the Halos are 4-0 in his last four home starts. He's owned the Royals with an ERA of 2.21 in 12 career starts against them. The Angels are 6-0 in his last six starts against them, a stretch where he's allowed just four runs in 41 1-3 innings of work. Kansas City didn't get a look at Weaver this season, and that should be to his advantage. The Angels saw Vargas twice this season and rocked him for six runs in four innings the last time they faced him. Vargas is in poor current form with an ERA of 9.95 over his last three starts. The Royals are 0-4 in his last four starts overall and 0-3 in his last three on the road. The Royals are also 0-4 in Vargas' last four starts versus teams with a winning record. The Angels are 4-0 in their last four playoff games as a favorite. Take LA.

7* NFL Total of the Week on Vikings/Packers UNDER 48

The Key: Minnesota combined with Atlanta for 69 points last week. Green Bay combined with Chicago for 55. We saw 75 and 52 total points scored when these foes met last season. Judging by the number, the books want the public on the over, and they've gotten their wish. I'm not hesitating to go against the grain. Prior to last week when it busted out against a bad Atlanta defense, Minnesota hadn't combined for more than 40 points this season. And, its upset win places it firmly in a strong unders situation. When the total is between 42.5 and 49.0 points, you want to play the under on any team that is off an upset victory if it is matched up against a division opponent. Doing so has produced a 75-37 mark the last 10 seasons. When the total is between 42.5 and 49.0 points, you also want to play the under on all teams off an over in a game involving teams that average just 18.0-23.0 ppg. Doing so has produced a 24-8 mark the last three seasons. Take the under.

6* NL Wild *CA$H COW* on Giants -107

The Key: The Giants thrive this time of year, and they have the edge on the mound with Bumgarner. San Francisco is 21-8 in its last 29 postseason games, including 8-2 in its last 10 on the road. It couldn't ask for a better guy to give the ball to. Its ace southpaw has been at his best on the road where he has a 2.22 ERA in 18 starts. The Giants are 5-0 in Bumgarner's last five starts as a favorite and 7-0 in his last seven starts as a road favorite. They are on an 11-0 run in his road starts versus NL clubs that average 4.3 runs per game or less, and they are on an 11-0 streak in his road starts versus NL teams with an on-base percentage of .325 or lower. They've won these contests by an average of 4.2 runs. Bumgarner has a strong 3.24 against the Pirates and a solid 3.79 ERA in his postseason career. He's been at his best in the playoffs when facing the most pressure, as evidenced by his 0.00 ERA in two World Series starts. This do-or-die game has immense pressure, and I believe Bumgarner will handle it better than Volquez, who has a 5.72 ERA against the Giants and an ERA of 21.60 in one postseason start. His clubs are 1-8 in his last nine starts versus the Giants, including 0-3 at home. Take San Francisco.

6* AL Wild Card *CA$H COW* on A's -105

The Key: I like the experience of the A's and Lester in this spot. The A's are making their third straight postseason trip while the Royals are in the postseason for the first time in 29 years. Shields has the nickname Big Game James, but he hasn't pitched in the postseason since 2011 when he posted a 12.60 ERA. He had an 8.31 ERA in the 2010 playoffs. Lester shined in the postseason just last year, posting a 2.35 ERA in the ALDS, a 2.31 ERA in the ALCS and a 0.59 ERA in the World Series. His clubs are 16-6 in his last 22 starts overall. And, he's owned the Royals. Lester is 3-0 against Kansas City this season and 9-3 all-time with a 1.84 ERA in 13 starts. Shields had a losing record at home this season behind a 3.51 ERA. The Royals are 3-7 in his last 10 home starts and 3-8 this season in his home night starts. He has a 3.82 ERA in 15 career starts against the A's, and his clubs are just 4-5 in his last nine starts against them. The Royals are 1-6 in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning record. Take Oakland.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Kansas City +3.5

The Key: I'll take the points with the Chiefs at home against a New England team that is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games. In order to be a good road favorite, you better be able to move the football - something the Patriots have struggled to do this season. They rank 29th in the NFL in total offense, and their normally reliable passing attack ranks 31st with just 196.3 yards per game. Part of the problem has been an offensive line that has already surrendered seven sacks. Kansas City has the horses to get after Tom Brady tonight. And, the Chiefs have done a good job defending the pass, ranking 8th in the NFL in that category. The Patriots are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on grass playing surfaces. Take the points.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on 49ers -4.5

The Key: The 49ers are a terrific 24-8-3 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS loss. They were upset in Arizona last week but are 32-15 ATS off an upset loss since 1992. If that loss occurred on the road, this trend tightens up to a blistering 18-5 ATS. Keep in mind they won by an average score of 30.4 to 14.5 in these 23 contests. The Niners are an impressive 17-7 ATS when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points under coach Harbaugh. They are also 10-2 ATS when playing against teams with a win percentage greater than 75% under their current coach. They have ripped these teams, defeating them by an average score of 28.0 to 17.9. The 49ers are once against an elite defensive team so I expect them to be up to the challenge against Philadelphia's offense. They are 9-2 ATS under Harbaugh against teams that average 375.0 yards per game or more. I'm also expecting a breakout game for the San Francisco offense against a Philadelphia defense that has struggled. Lay the points.
 

6* NFL Vegas Line Mistake on Titans +7.5

The Key: This line is an overreaction to Indy's blowout win at Jacksonville and Tennessee's blowout loss at Cincy. The Titans have played the Colts extremely tough in recent years, and I expect the trend to continue. Indy has won the last five meetings but only one of the last four victories have come by more than 7.5 points.  In fact, the Titans have kept the score within this number in six of their last eight contests with the Colts. You want to back poor offensive teams like Tennessee that average 14.0-18.0 points per game when they are off a loss of 21 points or more and are up against a poor defensive team that gives up 23.0-27.0 points per game. Doing so has produced a 24-4 (86%) ATS mark the last 10 seasons. This system is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Jets +2

The Key: Expect a letdown from the Lions as they head out on the road following a satisfying win over Green Bay. Look for the Jets to put forth a gritty performance at home as they look to bounce back following consecutive defeats. Detroit hasn't been the same team on the road where it is 0-4 SU and ATS in its last 4. It has also been a dead as road chalk, going 8-22 ATS as a road favorite since 1992. It's 4-13 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less during this span. The Jets have had one less day to prepare having played the Monday nighter last week, but playing this one at home certainly helps. They are 18-4 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1992, winning by an average score of 23.7 to 16.6 in this spot. They are 9-2 ATS in this situation under coach Ryan with a 9.4-point average margin of victory. The Jets are on a 16-6 ATS run in their next game after playing on Monday Night Football. Take the Jets.

6* Situational Annihilator on Buccaneers +9

The Key: Tampa Bay fits into a couple phenomenal wagering situations. You want to back underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 points per game or fewer after a game where they gave up 40 points or more. Doing so has produced a 77-38 (67%) ATS mark since 1983. You also want to take any bad offensive team that averages 14.0-18.0 ppg after playing a game in which 50 total points or more were scored when they are matched up against a team that gives up 23.0-27.0 ppg. Doing so has produced a 28-7 (80%) ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting this situation are 14-1 ATS the last five seasons. The Bucs are a better team than they've shown so far. They will be hungry after getting embarrassed by Atlanta last Thursday, and they will benefit from three extra days of preparation time. Take the points.

6* NFC North Annihilator on Packers -118

The Key: The Packers have had no problem winning at Soldier Field, where they are 18-5 SU and 17-6 ATS since 1992. They are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four there, winning those by an average of 7.5 points. Bears backers have been getting burnt time and time again at Soldier, where the Bears are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Bears are also 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in home games following one or more consecutive victories. In addition, the Bears are 5-22 ATS since 1992 after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. Chicago was fortunate to win the last two weeks as it was outgained by well over 100 yards in each. It benefited from a plus-six turnover margin.  Green Bay just doesn't turn it over. It's only committed three giveaways this season. Take the Packers.

7* ACC Game of the Year on Miami -7

The Key: Motivated by last week's double-digit loss at Nebraska and further fueled by last season's 18-point loss at Duke, Miami will be all business when it takes the field Saturday evening.  Duke is 4-0 but is yet to play anyone and takes a big step up in competition here.  Miami blew a 10-0 lead in last year's matchup and outgained the Blue Devils so the final score was misleading.  The Hurricanes are 8-1 in their last nine games against Duke with the wins coming by 19.1 points on average.  The Canes are 4-0 at home during this span with these wins coming by an average of 27.0 points.  Duke is 1-8 ATS under coach Cutcliffe on the road versus teams that average 6.25 yards per play or more.  It has lost these games by an average score of 43.6 to 18.0.  Lay the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-113)

The Key: The White Sox watched Kansas City celebrate a playoff berth on their field last night and that should get their competitive juices. Plus, the White Sox are honoring Paul Konerko, and they would love nothing more than to win on the day they retire his No. 14 jersey. Chicago is also in good hands with Danks, who is 6-0 with a 2.42 ERA in 15 career starts against Kansas City. Escobar (0 for 15), Cain (0 for 8), Moustakas (1 for 13), Gordon (5 for 32), Perez (2 for 11), Butler (7 for 35) and Infante (4 for 19) have all struggled against him. Duffy has pitched great for the Royals, but they haven't supported him well and the chances of them doing so here aren't good considering the success Danks has had against them.  According to this run line, the Royals are just 1-5 against the run line in Duffy's last six starts. They are 4-12 against the run line in his last 16 according to this run line. According to this run line, the Sox are 15-0 against the run line all-time in Danks' starts versus the Royals.

6* NCAAF Upset Alert on Colorado State +7

The Key: Boston College followed up its surprising upset of USC with a blowout win over Maine and is now being overvalued as a result.  Colorado State has a nice edge in this matchup because it has had an extra week to prepare.  Plus, the Rams have shined in non-conference contests, going 7-0 ATS in their last seven.  They are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Colorado State defense had some issues against Boise State, but Boston College hasn't been able to take advantage against teams like the Rams that give up 425.0 yards per game or more.  It is 0-6 ATS versus such teams the last three seasons and has lost these games by an average score of 35.2 to 24.5.  Take the points.

6* NCAAF Vegas Line Mistake on Tulane +12

The Key: Rutgers is getting too much respect from odds makers here.  The Scarlet Knights have a Big Ten showdown against Michigan next week, and I expect them to get caught looking ahead.  Tulane will be hungry following a disappointing five-turnover loss at Duke.  The Green Wave have been a phenomenal investment in bounce-back spots at 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a spread defeat.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  The Scarlet Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games, 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, 1-5 ATS in their last six versus AAC foes and 1-6 ATS in their last seven versus teams with a losing record.  Take the points.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Middle Tennessee State +4

The Key: Off last week's 19-point loss at Memphis, MTSU will be lacking no motivation. The Blue Raiders have been a phenomenal investment following games they didn't cover, going 5-0 ATS after their last five spread defeats. The Blue Raiders had run the football at will prior to last week and enter this game averaging 207.2 yards on the ground. An Old Dominion defense that has given up an average of 223.0 yards per game on the ground the last three weeks will have some serious trouble getting off the field. MTSU also catches the Monarchs at a good time. This one has letdown written all over it following last week's last-second victory at Rice. Take the points.

7* MLB Game of the Week on Red Sox -105

The Key: This is a bad spot for the Yankees, who all celebrated Jeter's heroics in his last home game. Even though Boston is their biggest rival, their focus will be lacking in the aftermath of last night's thrilling victory. The Red Sox have scored 22 runs over their last two games and should be able to keep it going against Capuano, who has been hit hard the last couple months. In three career starts versus Boston, he's 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA. The Yankees aren't familiar with Wright and that plays to his advantage. The Yankees are 2-7 in their last nine road games. Boston is 14-1  in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 6.7 to 2.7. Take Boston.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Giants +4

The Key: The Giants catch Washington at a good time. The Redskins are extremely banged up, and the short week adds insult to injury. The Giants have some nice momentum on their side following a 30-17 victory over Houston while the Redskins are off a deflating 37-34 loss at the Eagles. The Giants have been very competitive against Washington.  In fact, they have won or lost by fewer than four points in 10 of the last 12 meetings, including four straight. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. The Redskins are 5-19-2 ATS in their last 26 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Take the points.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Texas Tech +14

The Key: Off last week's ugly loss to Arkansas and with five consecutive defeats to the Cowboys eating at them, the Red Raiders will be lacking no motivation this evening. Texas Tech is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home, which speaks to the way teams respond after getting kicked and the way odds makers overreact to big losses. Oklahoma State has won the last four meetings by at least 17 points so odds makers are clearly begging for money on the home team based on this line. The Cowboys won last season's meeting by 18, but that was a letdown spot for Texas Tech, which had just suffered its first loss of the season at Oklahoma the week before after a 7-0 start. Teams that go that deep into the season undefeated start to think about running the table and winning a national title and clearly the Red Raiders never recovered from the loss until the crushed Arizona State in bowl action. Take the points.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tigers -1.5 (-130)

The Key: I'll lay runs with Detroit given the edge it has on the mound with Scherzer, who has a 2.66 home ERA this season. Minnesota's May has posted an 8.66 mark on the road. The Tigers are 14-0 the last three seasons in his Thursday starts. They are 12-0 the last two seasons in his starts in the second half of the season versus teams averaging 0.9 home runs or less per game. The Tigers are 41-10 in Scherzer's last 51 home starts and 14-2 in his last 16 starts as a favorite of -201 or greater.  They are 11-1 in his last 12 starts versus the Twins, including 6-0 in his last six. These six wins have come by an average of 4.0 runs. Take the Tigers on the run line.

7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Indians -101

The Key: The Indians have lost the first two games of this series, but they are a perfect 8-0 the last three seasons off two straight upset defeats at home to division opponents. They have won these games by an average score of 5.6 to 2.4. Kansas City's Vargas is really struggling, going 0-3 with a 9.01 ERA over his last three starts. Cleveland's Bauer has a 3.79 ERA over his last three starts and a 2.45 ERA in a pair of starts against the Royals this season. Vargas has a 4.12 ERA in three starts against Cleveland this season. The Indians are 8-1 in their last nine Game 3s of a series, 9-2 in their last 11 games as a home underdog, 25-8 in their last 33 home games versus a left-handed starter and 5-1 in Bauer's last six starts as a home underdog. Take Cleveland.

7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tigers -1.5 (-130)

The Key: Off back-to-back losses and clinging to a slim one-game lead in the Central, expect the Tigers to take care of business tonight.  Chicago's Scott Carroll has a 5.90 ERA in all starts this season and a 6.85 ERA in night starts.  The White Sox are 0-4 in his last four road starts, losing these by an average of 3.8 runs.  Detroit's David Price has an ERA of 3.41 on the season.  He's been inconsistent of late and was roughed up last time out, but the southpaw rarely makes two bad starts outings in a row.  Six of the last seven times he's allowed five earned runs or more, he's bounced back to hold the opposition to three earned runs or less in his next start.  Price's clubs are 4-1 in his last five starts versus the White Sox with each of these four victories coming by at least two runs.  The Tigers hammered Carroll in his lone start against them, tallying seven runs off him in five innings.  Detroit is 21-6 on the run line the last two seasons off an upset loss to a division opponent as a favorite of -150 or higher.  The Tigers have won these games by an average score of 5.8 to 3.0.  Take Detroit on the run line.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Padres -113

The Key: The Padres are showing value at this price at home against a Colorado club that is 10-44 in its last 44 road games, including 0-7 in its last seven.  The Rockies are 2-8 in their last 10 in San Diego and 2-8 in Matzek's road starts this season.  The Padres are an impressive 22-6 in their last 28 home games.  Plus, Stults' clubs are 3-0 all-time in his home starts versus the Rockies.  He has held them to three earned runs or fewer in each of his last four starts against them and nine of 11 starts all-time.  Matzek has been rocked in two of three starts versus San Diego, including his lone start in San Diego.  Take the Padres.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Jets -2.5

The Key: Expect a letdown from Chicago following last week's big come-from-behind win in San Francisco.  The Bears have been a poor investment after cashing a ticket, going 1-7 ATS in their last eight.  They have also been a bad play in games odds makers expect to be close.  They are just 4-13 ATS the last three seasons when the line is +3 to -3.  The Bears were outgained 361-216 last week but were bailed out by four San Francisco turnovers.  With this, it is worth noting that they are 1-9 ATS the last three seasons following a game with a turnover margin of plus-two or better.  The Chicago defense has been extremely vulnerable against the run.  In fact, it ranks 31st in the league with 160.0 yards allowed per game.  The Jets lead the league in rushing with 179.0 yards per game.  Look for the Jets to "run" away with a victory tonight.  Lay the points.

6* AL Central *CA$H COW* on Royals +100

The Key: After dropping the first two games of this series and falling 2.5 games back in the AL Central race, I expect the Royals to dig down deep.  Detroit's Porcello hasn't been quite as sharp of late with a 4.58 ERA over his last three starts.  The Tigers are 0-4 in his last four starts, 1-5 in his last six road starts and 1-7 in his last eight starts on regular rest (4 days).  It is also worth noting that the Tigers are just 2-10 in his starts the last two seasons versus good teams that carry a win percentage of 54-62%.  Guthrie has been lights out at home of late, giving up just one earned run in his last two starts spanning 15 innings.  The Royals are 26-12 in his last 38 home starts and 7-1 in his last eight starts in the third game of a series.  He's been rocked in his last two starts against the Tigers and will be extremely focused as a result.  The Royals are 4-1 in Guthrie's last five home starts versus the Tigers.  Take Kansas City.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Giants +2.5

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats, look for the Giants to respond at home Sunday.  They are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The Texans are on a 0-7 ATS skid after playing their last game on the road and have lost by an average of 10.9 points in these contests.  Houston is also on a 0-7 ATS slide in games played on fieldturf.  Houston has been outgained in each of its first two games but has managed to roll due to a plus-5 turnover margin.  Turnovers have cost the Giants thus far, but I don't see it continuing.  They'll make a concerted effort to take care of the football this week and will come out on top as a result. 

6* AFC Game of the Week on Titans +7

The Key: After an impressive Week 1 performance in Kansas City, the Titans were crushed at home by Dallas last week.  Look for them to come storming back with a strong showing in Cincinnati.  The Titans are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a spread loss.  The Titans have won or lost by 7 points or less in 13 of 16 all-time meetings, including 6 of the last 7 meetings in Cincinnati.  The Bengals are off a pair of wins and covers to start the season and are being overvalued as a result.  Take the points.

6* Sunday NFL Divisional *CA$H COW* on Jaguars +7

The Key: This is a tough spot for the Colts going on the road in a short week after blowing a double-digit lead and losing at home to Philadelphia on Monday Night Football.  The Jaguars are 0-2, but I expect a strong effort from them here in their home opener.  Not only will they be motivated by an 0-2 start, but they'll be out for revenge after getting kicked by the Colts twice last season.  You want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that won just 25-40% of their games last season as doing so has produced a 28-8 ATS mark the last five seasons.  These teams have been six-point underdogs on average but have lost by only 2.4 points on average.  Take the points.

6* NCAAF Saturday Night Bailout on UL-Lafayette +16

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back blowout losses, I look for coach Hudspeth's team to respond.  UL-Lafayette is 13-5 ATS as an underdog under Hudpspeth.  It is also 7-0 ATS in road games against teams with a winning record and 7-0 ATS in road games versus teams that complete 62% or more of their passes under his watch.  In addition, the Ragin' Cajuns are 7-0 ATS in road games versus teams that average 450 yards per game or more since 1992.  Take the points.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Orioles -1.5 (+121)

The Key: Look for Baltimore to bounce back strong from yesterday's loss behind Tillman.  The Orioles are 10-0 in his last 10 starts and have won these by an average of 3.3 runs.  Baltimore is also a perfect 8-0 this season when giving the ball to Tillman following a defeat, and it has won by an average score of 5.1 to 2.6 in this spot.  The Red Sox are 0-3 in De La Rosa's last three starts, during which he's posted a 7.43 ERA.  These losses came by an average of 3.0 runs.  Tillman has an ERA of 2.70 in 15 career starts versus Boston.  David Ortiz is 2 for 24 lifetime against Tillman, Will Middlebrooks is 0 for 18 and Xander Bogaerts is 2 for 11.  Bet Baltimore on the run line.

6* NCAAF Vegas Line Mistake on Indiana +14

The Key: After giving up 33 second-half points in an upset loss to Bowling Green, the Hoosiers will be lacking no motivation.  Adding fuel to the fire is last season's 17-point loss to Missouri.  The Tigers, who return just eight starters, weren't thought too highly of by odds makers just a couple weeks back when they were only 3.5-point favorites at Toledo.  After three straight decisive victories to start the season, Mizzou is being overvalued.  It has a big game at South Carolina next week and the tendency will be to look ahead to that game knowing how it handled Indiana last season.  The Tigers are 3-11 ATS in home games under coach Pinkel after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games.  The Hoosiers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take the points.

7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Year on BYU -14

The Key: Virginia has showed well to this point, covering the spread in all three games while taking UCLA down to the wire and upsetting Louisville.  But now it heads out on the road for the first time, and it will be up against the wrong opponent.  BYU was upset at Virginia last season at Virginia, and it will be out for some serious payback.  BYU will have had two extra days of preparation time, and it will be extremely focused after nearly blowing a 23-0 lead against Houston.  Virginia is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a win.  It is also 1-8 ATS over the last three seasons versus teams that complete 62% or more of their pass attempts.  BYU is 17-5 ATS all-time when playing against teams with a win percentage of 60-75% under coach Mendenhall.  Lay the points.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Connecticut +2

The Key: UConn has played the tougher early season schedule with matchups against BYU and Boise State and should benefit here from stepping on the field with those talented teams.  In addition, I expect UConn to want this game just a little bit more because it has lost the last two in the series and was upset at home by the Bulls last season.  South Florida is a miserable 10-25-1 ATS in its last 36 games overall and just 5-21-1 ATS in its last 27 home games. The Bulls are 0-8 ATS the last three seasons as a favorite and have lost these games by an average of 4.6 points.  Keep in mind that six of these losses came at home.  The Huskies are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a losing home record, and the underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.  Take the points.

7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Yankees -139

The Key: The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last five games, and I expect their struggles to continue this evening.  Buehrle hasn't been able to figure out the Yankees, going 1-13 with a 6.14 ERA in 20 career starts against them.  His clubs are 2-18 in those starts, including 0-10 in the last 10 at Yankee Stadium.  New York's Brian McCann (10 for 24), Brett Gardner (12 for 29), Ichiro Suzuki (26 for 61) and Stephen Drew (7 for 16) have hit Buehrle hard. So has Jeter, who is hitting .347 with two homers in 49 career at-bats in the matchup.  The Blue Jays are 0-4 in Buehrle's last four road starts versus a team with a winning record.  The Yankees are 4-0 in their last four home games versus a left-handed starter.  Kuroda has been rock solid down the stretch with a 2.92 ERA over his last six starts.  He also has a 3.34 ERA in his last nine starts versus the Blue Jays.  He's 4-0 all-time in his home starts versus the Jays.  It's also worth noting that the Yankees are 4-0 in the last four meetings when Kuroda faces off against Buehrle.  Take the Yankees.

6* Thursday Night NFL Annihilator on Buccaneers +7

The Key: Tampa Bay has struggled offensively through its first two games, but it should be able to move the football on an Atlanta defense that ranks dead last in the NFL with 472.0 yards allowed per game.  Tampa Bay has had a ton of success running the football on the Falcons. It has averaged 147 rushing yards in the last three meetings, and its ground game will be instrumental in keep this one close.  Tampa Bay has long been extremely competitive in the series.  In fact, it is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings overall and 10-4 in their last 14 in Atlanta.  You want to back underdogs or pickems that won just 25-40% of their games last season as doing so has produced a 47-17 ATS mark the last five seasons.  Take the points.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cardinals -136

The Key: The Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Shelby Miller.  The Cards are 3-0 in his last three starts, during which he's posted a 0.45 ERA.  The Cardinals are also 7-0 all-time in his starts versus the Brewers, and he's posted a 2.30 ERA in these starts.  Lohse has struggled of late with a 7.71 ERA over his last three starts, and he's struggled against his former club, posting a 6.63 ERA in seven starts against the Cards since joining the Brewers.  He's 0-2 in his last two starts versus St. Louis while giving up 14 runs in eight innings.  The Brewers are 1-9 in their last 10 road games and 21-44 in their last 65 versus the Cardinals.  The Cardinals are 82-35 in their last 117 home games versus a right-handed starter.  Take St. Louis.

7* NCAAF Thursday Night Game of the Month on Kansas State +9.5

The Key: Auburn is being overvalued by odds makers because it has covered the spread in 13 consecutive games.  One thing you can't afford to do is take the Wildcats lightly.  They are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 regular season games as an underdog, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine.  They have also performed well with extra preparation time, going 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.  The Wildcats are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games versus teams with a winning record, and I expect them to take Auburn right down to the wire Thursday.

7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* Game of the Week on Phillies -130

The Key: The Phillies are showing value at this price with Hamels on the hill.  The southpaw has been nothing short of dominant, giving up three runs or fewer in his last 20 starts.  He has a 2.51 ERA on the season and a 1.80 ERA on the road.  Hamels, who grew up in San Diego, has enjoyed pitching against the Padres.  He has a 2.21 ERA in 15 career starts against them and a 1.85 mark in seven starts at Petco.  The Phillies are 7-0 in Hamels' last seven starts versus the Padres and 5-0 in his last five road starts against them.  Stults has a 4.49 ERA on the season and a 4.13 ERA at home.  To make matters worse, his 3.07 run-support average is among the lowest in baseball.  The Padres are 0-2 in Stults' last two home starts and 0-2 in his last two starts against the Phillies.  The Phillies are 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and the Padres are 0-5 in their last five Game 3's of a series.  Take Philadelphia.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -143

The Key: The Brewers are 0-8 in their last eight road games and 0-6 in their last six games as an underdog.  Look for their road struggles to continue here.  The Cardinals are 8-0 in their last eight home games, 4-0 in their last four series openers and 6-0 in their last six games versus starters with a WHIP greater than 1.300.  Peralta has a 1.345 WHIP on the season, a 1.449 WHIP on the road and a 1.787 WHIP over his last three starts.  Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday are both 8 for 18 against the right-hander.  Lynn has posted a 1.85 ERA over his last six starts and a 1.48 ERA over his last five starts against the Brewers.  Milwaukee's Aramis Ramirez (2 for 21), Carlos Gomez (3 for 17 with nine strikeouts) and Khris Davis (1 for 12) have struggled against Lynn.  The Cardinals are 5-0 in Lynn's last five starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last four home starts versus teams with a winning record.  Take St. Louis.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Padres -155

The Key: The Padres are 21-8 in their last 29 home games, including 10-2 in their last 12 as a home favorite.  They are also an extraordinary 60-20 in their last 80 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Padres were swept in a three-game series in Philadelphia earlier this season, but they are 15-5 the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a three-game sweep.  Cashner is without a doubt the superior starter in this matchup with a 2.40 ERA on the season and a 1.54 mark at home.  Williams has a 4.82 ERA on the season and a 7.84 mark on the road.  The Phillies are 3-8 in their last 11 road games versus teams with a losing record and 1-5 in their last six games as an underdog.  Take San Diego.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Colts -3

The Key: The Colts haven't lost consecutive games in the regular season with Andrew Luck under center.  They have gone a perfect 10-0 SU and ATS in bounce back spots with these 10 wins coming by an average of 8.3 points.  Indy is also on a 10-0 ATS run in home games when the total is 45.5 or higher, a 7-0 ATS run following a road loss and a 6-0 ATS run in home games after allowing 30 points or more last time out.  The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last five games after being held to less than 90 yards rushing in their last game.  The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five Week 2 and 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings with the Colts.  Lay the points with Luck and company at home.

7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Month on Bears +7

The Key: After a disappointing opener, I expect the Bears to come storming back in Week 2.  This is too many points for Chicago to be catching considering how competitive it has been.  Five of its last seven losses have come by five points or less.  The 49ers posted a double-digit win in Dallas last week, but they were helped out by four first half Dallas turnovers.  Consider that they were outgained 382-319 for the game, and the Cowboys outscored them 14-0 in the second half when they took care of the football.  Chicago should be able to take the Niners down to the wire if it takes care of the football, and it will place a big emphasis on doing so after three giveaways last week.  The 49ers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take the points.

6* Sunday NFL Late Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Chargers +6

The Key: The Seahawks are being overvalued on the road because they are the defending Super Bowl champs, they looked great in Week 1 and they have had four extra days to prepare.  I'll gladly take the points with the home team as they have been extremely competitive.  In fact, eight of their last nine losses have come in games that were decided by a single score.  Seattle has shown some vulnerability when stepping away from the 12th Man.  It went 6-2 on the road last regular season, but three of those wins came by five points or less.  In other words, the Seahawks lost or won by less than six points in five of eight regular-season road contests last year.  The Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games in September.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.  Take the points.

6* MLB Run Line Rout on Pirates -1.5 (+110)

The Key: The Cubs are 0-5 in their last five games versus right-handed starters, losing these games by an average of 6.0 runs, and they appear to be up against it with the righty they'll see today.  Pittsburgh's Volquez is in top form with a 2.29 ERA over his last nine starts.  The Pirates are 4-0 in Volquez's last four home starts versus losing teams, and his clubs are 9-0 in his home starts in the second half of the season the last three seasons versus NL teams with a batting average of .250 or lower.  His clubs have won these nine by 2.0 runs on average.  Volquez has never lost to the Cubs, and his clubs are 9-0 lifetime in his starts against them, during which he's posted a 3.24 ERA.  These nine wins have come by an average of 4.2 runs.  Chicago's Turner has a massive 5.84 ERA in all appearance this season.  Take Pittsburgh on the run line.

6* Sunday NFL Early Annihilator on Cowboys +3.5

The Key: We were on the Titans +3.5 in Week 1 and watched them take care of business in Kansas City, but they are getting too much respect from odds makers here as a result.  The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win, 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a spread win and 0-6 ATS in the last six home games.  Tennessee is also on a 0-7 ATS slide when the total is at 49.5 or higher, and it has lost these contests by an average score of 40.4 to 21.0.  Dallas is on a strong 13-3 ATS run in road games after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half.  Tony Romo struggled in the first half last week, and it cost the Cowboys.  Don't count on him laying another egg here.  Take the points.

7* NCAAF Bailout Game of the Month on Colorado +16

The Key: Colorado will be lacking no motivation when it takes the field in its home opener.  That's because Arizona State has thumped the Buffaloes each of the past three seasons.  I expect this meeting to be a lot more competitive as Colorado brings back 16 starters and ASU returns only eight.  This is a bad spot for the Sun Devils as they are 4-13 ATS in road games off a road win since 1992.  They are just 2-10 ATS in road games off a double-digit road win since 1992.  Also, you want to take home underdogs of 10.5 to 21.0 points in conference games if they return eight offensive starters or more including the QB.  Doing so has produced a 146-71 (67.3%) ATS mark since 1992.  Take the points.

7* NCAAF Letdown Game of the Year on Boston College +18

The Key: This is a bad situation for USC, which is in a letdown spot following a huge win over Stanford.  The Trojans will have one less day to prepare as B.C. played Friday last week.  Plus, making the cross-country trip cuts further into their prep time and affects their body clocks.  I don't see USC being fully invested this week knowing it crushed the Eagles 35-7 last season.  That loss, and last week's 10-point home loss to Pitt, assures us Boston College will be extremely motivated.  The Trojans are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games while the Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home.  The Eagles are also 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus teams with a winning road mark and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS defeat.  Take the points.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Phillies -131

The Key: The Phillies have the edge on the mound with Kendrick, who has had Miami's number.  He's 11-3 with a 3.56 ERA in 19 career starts versus the Marlins, and the Phillies are 8-0 in his last eight home starts versus the Fish.  It is also worth noting that the Phillies are 4-0 in his last four home starts versus losing clubs.  Miami's Hand has a 4.71 road ERA on the season and a 4.41 ERA in three career starts versus the Phillies.  That number would likely be higher had those three starts not come at home.  Starting in Philly for the first time, I expect Hand to struggle.  The Marlins are 6-15 in his last 21 starts, 3-8 in his last 11 road starts and 2-12 in his last 14 division starts.  The Marlins are 10-29 in the last 39 meetings in Philadelphia.  Take the Phillies.

6* NCAAF Vegas Line Mistake on UNLV +10

The Key: Off a satisfying victory at Northwestern, the Huskies won't be fully invested here.  With three consecutive road games on deck, UNLV will be looking to enter its road swing with a winning record.  The Rebels are an impressive 13-5 ATS as a home underdog under coach Hauck, losing these contests by only 7.8 points on average.  Also, you want to back home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points in the first half of the season that are off a home win of three points or less as doing so has produced a 23-3 ATS mark since 1992.  This system is a 100% perfect 7-0 ATS the last five seasons.  Take the points.

6* MLB Run Line Rout on Cardinals -1.5 +107

The Key: Off three straight losses in Cincinnati, the Cardinals will be all business when they take the field against a Colorado club that has dropped 41 of 51 on the road.  While De La Rosa has been strong at home, he has a 5.29 road ERA, and the Rockies are 0-6 in his last six road starts.  These defeats have come by an average of 4.0 runs.  The Cardinals are 3-0 in Wainwright's last three home starts, winning these by an average of 2.0 runs.  And, he's completely dominated the Rockies.  Wainwright has a 1.63 ERA in seven career starts against them and is 4-0 in his last four starts.  These wins came by an average of 2.5 runs.  De La Rosa has a 4.56 ERA in nine career starts versus the Cardinals.  Take St. Louis on the run line.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Buffalo +36

The Key: This is Baylor's first road game of the season, and I expect it to get caught looking past a Buffalo squad it defeated 70-13 last year.  I still expect Baylor to win comfortably, but I expect Buffalo to put up a much better fight on their home field.  There's no better motivation than getting embarrassed.  Baylor has some injuries to key players and has a bye week following this game before conference play begins so it wants to make sure it enters the conference season healthy.  While Bryce Petty is expected to go despite cracking two small bones in his back in the opener, receivers Clay Fuller and Levi Norwood are out and Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman likely won't play either.  That's a lot of production that won't be on the field tonight.  The Bulls gave up a lot of yards to Army last week but are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.  Take the points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens -1

The Key: Motivated by a loss in Week 1, I expect the Ravens to bounce back strong at home against a Pittsburgh team they have defeated four times in the last six meetings.  The Steelers have been a poor early season investment, going 0-6 ATS in their last six September contests.  They are 3-12 ATS all-time under Tomlin in road games in the first month of the season.  It is also worth noting that they are 0-6 ATS under Tomlin in road games after gaining an average of seven yards or more per play in their previous game.  They have lost by an average of 4.2 points in this situation.  The Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams with a winning record.  Take Baltimore.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Brewers -145

The Key: The Brewers have the edge on the mound with Fiers, who has a 1.94 ERA on the season and a 1.88 ERA at home.  The Brewers are 4-0 in Fiers' home starts this season and 4-0 in his starts as a favorite.  Eovaldi has a 4.29 ERA on the season and a 5.51 ERA over his last three starts.  The Marlins are 0-5 in Eovaldi's last five starts.  He's also 0-4 lifetime with a 4.91 ERA in 4 starts versus Milwaukee.  The Marlins have dropped 15 of their last 20 at Miller Park.  Take the Brewers.