Sports Picks & Predictions

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Miami Ohio +22
The Key: This game is all about revenge for a Miami Ohio squad that was crushed by 38 at Cincinnati last season. The Bearcats have defeated the Redhawks by margins of 38, 27, 42, 24, 25 and 37 the past six years so the fact this line opened at 24 or less at a lot of books tells us oddsmakers are looking to trap the public. Miami Ohio has had a bye week to prepare. That's big. Plus, it will be motivated by poor performances in its first two games in addition to its recent matchups with the Bearcats. Cincy rolled against Northwestern State last week so it will be feeling pretty good about itself as it goes up against a school it has dominated. I just don't see the Bearcats giving their full attention and focus to Miami Ohio here. The home team has covered the number in 4 of the last 5 meetings. Also, Cincy is on a 0-5 ATS slide following a victory of more than 20 points and a 4-15 ATS skid after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in its previous game. With extra preparation time and a huge motivational advantage, I fully expect the Redhawks to keep this one within the number.

6* MLB *Afternoon Delight* on Yankees -153
The Key: It hasn't been wise to bet against Ivan Nova in interleague play. The right-hander is 6-1 with a 2.67 ERA in 10 interleague starts - 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two this year. The Yankees are 9-1 all-time in his interleague starts, including 5-0 in his last 5. They are also are 4-0 the last 4 times he's gotten the ball on 5 days' rest and 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Giants are 1-7 in their last 8 interleague road games. Take New York.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Fresno State -3
The Key: To say this is a game Fresno State wants badly is an understatement. The Bulldogs have lost 7 straight in the series and will be out for some serious revenge as a result. Unlike most years, however, Fresno State boasts the more talented team. Ultimately, I believe reigning MWC Offensive Player of the Year Derek Carr will be the difference. Carr has completed 71.2 percent of his throws for 661 yards with 8 TDs and 1 INT this season. He completed 29 of 43 passes for 266 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT at Boise State in last season's 20-10 loss, and I expect him to be even more effective against a Bronco stop unit that returns just 4 starters. This defense gave up 592 yards in a 38-6 loss at Washington in Week 1. It allowed Keith Price to connect on 23 of 31 passes for 2 TDs and 1 INT. The Broncos are vulnerable in the back, and I believe it costs them in this one. Fresno State is 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Tim DeRuyter versus soft pass defenses like Boise State that allow opponents a 58% completion rate or better. It has defeated these foes by an average score of 41.4 to 20.7. Lay the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Nationals -1.5 -115
The Key: The Nationals are 7-0 at home this season against the Marlins, winning these by 3.1 runs on average. They are 3-0 in Zimmermann's last 3 starts, winning these by 4.3 runs on average. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the Marlins, winning these by 4.8 runs on average. The Marlins are 0-5 in Turner's last 5 starts with 3 of these losses coming by 2 runs. Take Washington on the run line.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on A's -1.5 +104
The Key: The A's are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss, winning these games by an average of 4.1 runs. Look for the A's to respond with a big win following last night's defeat. Straily has been dealing. The A's are 4-0 in his last 4 starts, winning these by an average of 3.5 runs. The Twins are 3-12 in Correia's last 15 starts. Each of their last 6 losses with him on the mound have come by at least 3 runs. Oakland recorded wins of 18-3 and 8-2 in its last two meetings with Minnesota, which took place last week. Take Oakland on the run line.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Eagles -3
The Key: The Eagles can't wait to get back on the field tonight after Sunday's narrow loss to San Diego. That defeat has them motivated and focused as they look to send their old coach back to Kansas City with his tail between his legs. Andy Reid is very familiar with Philadelphia's personnel, but he's not at all familiar with Chip Kelly's offense, which is averaging 477.0 yards and 31.5 points. The Eagles, on the other hand, are very familiar with the things that Reid likes to do offensively. The Kansas City defense has been pretty good thus far, but it played the worst team in the NFL (Jacksonville) in one of its games. Offense has been the big issue for the Chiefs as they rank 26th in total yards with 302.5 per game. The defense won't be able to get enough stops to give a mediocre-at-best offense enough possessions to get it done on the road tonight. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Eagles. Take Philadelphia.

6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator on NC State +14.5
The Key: The Wolfpack are supported by a couple strong systems. Home teams that check in off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season, are 70-30 ATS since 1992. In addition, you want to bet against road favorites that average 5.6-6.2 yards per play that are matched up against a team that allows 4.8-5.6 yards per play if they have gained 450 total yards or more in two consecutive games. Doing so has produced a 40-12 ATS record since 1992. Carter-Finley Stadium is a tough place to play. The Wolfpack upset No. 3 Florida State there as a 17-point dog last season. They also crushed Clemson 37-13 the last time it visited. The Wolfpack were a 7-point dog in that game. Home field has been good to NC State as it is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 home games. The Wolfpack are just 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS versus Clemson the last 3 seasons with neither of the losses coming by more than 14 points. Take the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -145
The Key: With losses in the first two games of this series, the Pirates are looking up at St. Louis in the NL Central. That's all the motivation they'll need tonight. Pittsburgh has been a terrific investment all season, especially at home. In fact, it is 12-0 in home games this season after playing 6 or more consecutive home games. In other words, when the Pittsburgh players have been able to sleep in their own beds for an extended period and spend plenty of time with their families, they have been one tough cookie. It is also worth noting that the Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 7-1 in Morton's last 8 starts versus a team with a losing record. Morton is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in 2 starts versus San Diego. The Padres are 1-5 in Ross' last 6 starts and his clubs are 1-10 in his starts as an underdog of +100 to +150 since the beginning of last season. Take Pittsburgh.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 -120
The Key: I'll take the Tigers on the run line against the struggling Mariners. Seattle is 1-7 in its last 8 games with 6 of these losses coming by 2 runs or more. In addition, the M's are 0-6 in Brandon Maurer's last 6 starts, losing these by an average of 4.2 runs. They are 0-4 all-time in his road starts, losing these by 5.0 runs on average. The Tigers are 3-0 in Anibal Sanchez's last 3 starts, winning these by an average of 6.7 runs. They are 9-1 in his last 10 starts with 8 of the wins coming by at least 2 runs. Take Detroit on the run line.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Steelers +7
The Key: I'm taking the points in a game I expect to go right down to the wire. Pittsburgh has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 13 consecutive games against the Bengals. Even more impressive, Pittsburgh has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 17 consecutive games in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh's defense was phenomenal in Week 1, and I'm confident it will have success against an opponent it knows very well. The Steelers held the Bengals to just 185 yards in last year's 24-17 win in Cincinnati. In addition to a stellar defensive performance, I expect the Pittsburgh offense to be much better than it was last week. The Bengals showed some vulnerability to the pass last week in Chicago, and Big Ben Roethlisberger is more than capable of having himself a game. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Seahawks -2.5
The Key: Seattle's home field advantage is no joke. The Seahawks are an impressive 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 home games. They smoked San Francisco 42-13 in last season's home matchup and are 8-4 SU and ATS in their last 12 home contests in the series. Additionally, the home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The Seahawks have been a phenomenal investment at 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall, including 10-1 ATS in their last 11 versus winning teams. Seattle went on the road and averaged 6.3 yards per play last week. That's a good sign because it is on a 7-0 ATS run going back to last season after averaging 6 or more yards per play in its previous game. They have won by an average score of 34.0 to 15.3 in these spots. It is also worth noting that Seattle is 6-0 ATS all-time in home games in the first month of the season under coach Carroll, winning these by an average score of 23.3 to 14.2. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS all-time under Carroll in home games when the total is between 42.5 and 45 points. It is also worth noting that the 49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus division foes. Lay the points.

6* Manning Bowl *CA$H COW* on Giants +5
The Key: This line is an overreaction to the beating Denver put on the defending Super Bowl champs. The Giants have the offense to match the Broncos punch for punch. The G-Men are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 matchups with teams that have a winning record. Additionally, the way New York was able to move the football last week is a good sign. The Giants are 9-1 ATS since the beginning of the 2011 season after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game. They have won by an average score of 28.4 to 19.9 in this situation. Look for Eli Manning and company to cut down on the turnovers and send home brother Peyton with a loss.

7* NFL Game of the Month on Buccaneers +3.5
The Key: Motivated by last week's upset loss to the Jets, and further fueled by a 41-0 beating the last time they played the Saints, the Buccaneers will be the hungrier team Sunday. Consider that Tampa Bay is on a 14-4 ATS run following an upset loss on the road, winning by an average score of 23.9 to 13.4 in this situation. In addition, the Saints find themselves in a letdown position following a big win over Atlanta. New Orleans was fortunate to win last season's matchup in Tampa Bay as it had to overcome a 14-0 deficit and was outgained 513-458. I don't believe the Saints will be as fortunate this time around. The Buccaneers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games versus teams with a winning record. Take the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Rangers -113
The Key: The A's haven't swept the Rangers in Arlington in four years, and I don't see them doing it here. Texas is in desperate need of a win as it's not only batting Oakland for a division title but is battling several other AL clubs for wild card spots. The Rangers are 18-8 in their last 26 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. They are also 14-5 all-time after 5 or more consecutive losses under manager Washington. Parker has been great for the A's, but they have a losing record in his road starts. Plus, Oakland is hitting just .248 against southpaw starters. Look for it struggled to continue against lefties this afternoon. The Rangers are 7-0 this season in Perez's starts against division opponents, winning these games by an average score of 7.1 to 2.3 while he's posted a 1.88 ERA. Texas is also 8-0 in his starts this season versus AL clubs averaging 4.7 runs per game of less. Take Texas.

6* NCAAF Bailout on Arizona State -5
The Key: History is majorly in ASU's favor here. First off, home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that check in off a win of 35 or more points are 66-30 ATS the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Sun Devils are now a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time in games played in the first half of the season under coach Todd Graham. Wiscy has looked dominant in its first two games under new coach Gary Anderson, but now it heads out on the road where it is 0-6 ATS since the beginning of the 2011 season following a game where it scored 42 points or more. ASU has been dominant when hosting Big Ten foes. In fact, it is 8-0 all-time at Sun Devil Stadium against Big Ten opponents, winning these contests by an average score of 40.0 to 13.9. Lay the points.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Dodgers -166
The Key: The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with Nolasco, who is 8-1 with a 2.07 ERA in 12 starts since being acquired from Miami on July 6. He is 4-0 with a 0.63 ERA in his last four outings and hasn't allowed an earned run in his last 3 home starts spanning 22 2-3 innings. The Dodgers are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. You better find a way to manufacture some runs if you're going to beat Nolasco with the way he's going, and I don't see San Francisco being able to. The Giants don't run well, and that doesn't bode well for them as LA is 7-0 in Nolasco's starts in the second half of this season versus teams that average 0.5 or less steals per game. It has won these by an average score of 6.6 to 2.1. Lincecum has good career numbers against the Dodgers but has lost 4 of his last 6 starts at Dodger Stadium. The Giants are 3-7 in his last 10 road starts, 2-9 in his last 11 starts versus a team with a winning record and 1-5 in his last 6 road starts versus a team with a winning record. Nolasco's clubs are 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus San Francisco. Take LA.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on North Texas +3.5
The Key: I believe the wrong team is favored here, and I expect North Texas to win this game outright but we'll take the generous 3.5 points for insurance. I played against the Mean Green last week and cashed in on Ohio as my NCAAF Game of the Week. The fact they have just 8 road wins going back to 2006 played into my decision. But now, they are back at home where they crushed Idaho in Week 1. They are 8-3 in their last 11 home games, including 2-0 in their last 2. Ball State rolled its first two opponents, but both games were at home. Things won't go as smoothly as it goes out on the road for the first time. A closer look at its first two games suggests it wasn't as dominant as the final scores look. The Cardinals outgained Illinois State by 64 yards and Army by a single yard. There are certainly issues on defense, and North Texas has the type of balanced offense to exploit those issues. Illinois State got anything it wanted through the air on Ball State in Week 1, and then Army got anything it wanted on the ground in Week 2. North Texas has shown it can move the ball both ways. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Mean Green are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Take the points.

6* Friday Night Lights on Air Force +24
The Key: Look for Air Force to respond following the beating it took from Utah State last week. The Falcons fit into an outstanding system. Consider that road teams in the first month of the season that have an inexperienced QB and return 5 offensive starters or less, provided they were a bowl team the previous season and finished that season with two straight losses, are 8-0 ATS the last five seasons. The Broncos check in off a dominant performance against Tennessee-Martin. However, they are 0-7 ATS in home games since 2011 after outgaining an opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. They have won in this situation but only by 17.6 points on average. It is also worth noting that Boise State is 0-6 ATS in home games since 2011 when the total is between 56.5 and 63.0 points. They have won these games by just 19.5 points on average. Boise State returns only 4 starters on defense and it's been evident. Air Force has the running game to control the clock and earn the cover. Take the points.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tigers -170
The Key: The Royals have won all five matchups against Verlander this season, but it won't continue. He is 15-5 with a 2.80 ERA in 28 starts against Kansas City and probably should have added to this win total a few more times this season. He's limited the Royals to 2 earned runs or less in 3 of 5 starts this season. The Tigers are 60-23 in Verlander's last 83 home starts and 41-14 in his last 55 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. I love his chances of outdueling Chen, who is 6-8 with a 5.24 ERA in 18 starts versus Detroit. The Royals are 0-5 in Chen's last 5 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200, 0-5 in his last 5 road starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-8 in his last 8 Friday starts. The Royals are just 3-11 in their last 14 meetings in Detroit. Take the Tigers.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Dodgers -170
The Key: The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with Greinke. His clubs are 13-0 in his home starts against losing teams dating back to the start of last season. Additionally, his clubs are 14-0 in his home starts in the second half of the season versus losing teams since the start of the 2011 season. San Francisco has had a ton of problems generating offense, as evidenced by its 3.8 runs per game average. Its inability to hit the long ball has been a big issue. The Giants average just 0.61 homers per game. This stat is extremely significant because the Dodgers are 9-0 this season in Greinke's starts versus teams that average 0.9 HRs or less per game. Also, the Dodgers are 4-0 in Greinke's last 4 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus division opponents. The Giants have dropped 9 of Cain's last 12 starts. They've also lost 4 of his last 5 starts versus the Dodgers. Take LA.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Patriots -11
The Key: The Jets can't be trusted with a rookie QB making his first road start on a short week. New England has owned the Jets of late, going 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in the last 4 meetings. These 4 wins have come by an average of 15.8 points. Also, 4 of New England's last 6 victories in the series have come by at least 17 points. The Pats will function much better on a short week because they have Tom Brady calling the shots. The injuries they are dealing with aren't a major concern. They continually plug players in and Brady makes them into Pro Bowlers. The Pats are 9-1 ATS since the start of the 2011 season when coming off a win against a division rival. They have won by an average score of 38.5 to 16.5 in this situation. Lay the points.

6* National TV Annihilator (ESPN) on TCU -3
The Key: I expect this experienced TCU team, which returns 16 starters, to avenge last season's triple-overtime loss to Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 2-0 and have put up gaudy numbers, but they take a big step up in competition tonight. I don't see walk-on quarterback Baker Mayfield being nearly as effective against a TCU stop unit that brings back 9 starters. Casey Pachall is out, but Trevone Boykin gained valuable experience last season and has actually been the better signal caller through the first two games of this season. He threw for a career-best 332 yards and four TDs against Texas Tech last season so he has proven he can torch the Red Raiders. TCU actually dominated last season's meeting, outgaining the Red Raiders 516-389. The difference was turnovers. TCU has a +2 turnover margin through the first two games while Texas Tech has a -2 so I don't expect the Red Raiders to dominate the takeaway battle again. The Red Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Lay the points.

7* MLB Afternoon Delight Game of the Year on Rangers -136
The Key: The Pirates have won the first two games of this series, but they are on a 0-9 slide in the third game of a series. Pittsburgh's Burnett has struggled on the road where he has a 4.30 ERA. The Pirates are 0-8 in his last 8 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus a team with a winning record. Burnett's clubs are also 0-3 in his last 3 starts versus the Rangers. Texas hasn't lost at home since acquiring Garza, going 5-0. Garza's clubs are also a perfect 5-0 in his interleague starts this season. Take Texas.

6* Interleague *CA$H COW* on Rangers -126
The Key: Texas has the edge as Liriano and Perez go toe-to-toe because it has the best record in the majors against left-handed starters. The Rangers are 28-17 against southpaw starters on the season, including 10-3 in their last 13 games against them. They are hitting .278 and scoring 5.0 runs per game off lefty starters while the Pirates are batting .262 and scoring 4.3 runs per game against them. Liriano has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 starts and has a 6.60 ERA over his last 3 starts as a result. He's been up and down all season on the road where he has a 4.36 ERA. Texas' Perez has been lights out at home where he has a 2.20 ERA. The Rangers are 7-0 in his last 7 starts. Justin Morneau is the only Pittsburgh hitter that has faced Perez, which means Pittsburgh won't be familiar with his stuff at all. The Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 6-1 in their last 7 home games versus Pittsburgh. Take Texas.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Blue Jays -135
The Key: The Blue Jays have the edge on the mound with Buehrle, who has a 2.72 home ERA this season. The Jays are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite and 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a home favorite. Toronto is also 7-0 this season in Buehrle's starts versus AL West opponents, winning these by an average score of 4.9 to 1.9. LA's Williams has a 4.61 road ERA, and the Angels are 0-7 in his starts in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons versus AL clubs with an on-base percentage .320 or worse. They have lost these contests by an average score of 5.9 to 2.4. This trend really speaks to how much Williams has struggled. Take Toronto.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Eagles +3.5
The Key: Robert Griffin III will get the start for Washington tonight, but I'm not expecting an All-Pro caliber performance from him. He didn't take a single snap in the preseason, and I believe he'll be rusty as a result. In addition, Washington's defense will have a tough time figuring out Chip Kelly's offense. Philly will look to play uptempo, which is always taxing on defenses, especially early in the season before they're in full game shape. Washington will really struggle with the read-option stuff, which will get LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick into space where both are extremely dangerous. You want to fade favorites that allowed 5.4 yards per play or more last season if they're matched up against a division opponent because doing so has produced a 49-23 (68.1%) ATS record the last 10 seasons. Also, Washington is a on a 28-47 ATS slide as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Lastly, the road team is on a 9-3-1 ATS run in the series. Take the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -160
The Key: The Braves should end their 4-game slide tonight against a Miami club they have owned. They have won 39 of the last 54 meetings overall and 20 of the last 26 in Miami. The Braves have the edge on the mound with Medlen, who has a 2.58 ERA in 7 career starts against the Marlins. Atlanta is an unbeaten 7-0 in those starts. It is also worth noting that Atlanta is 15-0 all-time in Medlen's starts in the second half of the season versus clubs that average 2.75 or less extra base hits per game. It has won these games by an average score of 6.4 to 2.5. The Marlins are 0-2 in Alvarez's last two starts versus the Braves. He's allowed 9 runs in 12 innings in these two starts. Take Atlanta.

6* Sunday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Dodgers -121
The Key: Motivated by defeats in the first two games of this series, look for the Dodgers to bounce back strong behind a gem from their ace. Kershaw has a 1.89 ERA on the season, and I expect him to be very focused here after getting hit hard at Colorado his last time out. The Dodgers still won that game and are 3-0 in his last 3 road starts. Bailey has pitched well of late for Cincinnati, but his 3.42 ERA pales in comparison with Kershaw's ERA. Plus, Bailey has a 4.23 ERA in 7 starts against the Dodgers and is 0-2 in his last 2. Kershaw, on the other hand, has a 2.81 ERA in 7 starts versus the Reds, and the Dodgers are 4-0 all-time in his road starts versus Cincinnati. The Dodgers are also 5-0 in Kershaw's last 5 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 4-0 the last 4 times he's gotten the ball in the third game of a series. Take LA.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Panthers +4.5
The Key: The Seahawks are being overvalued on the road as oddsmakers are looking to exploit the public perception of them. Seattle was not the same team away from home last season. It went 3-5 on the road during the regular season with one of the wins coming by just 4 points and the other coming in OT. It was these Panthers that played the Seahawks to the aforementioned 4-point game and did so despite totaling only 190 yards of offense. This speaks to how well Carolina defended the Seahawks. Plus, we know the Cam Newton-led Panthers are capable of a much better performance offensively. NFL teams headed up by Pete Carroll are 4-13 ATS all-time as a road favorite of 7 points or less. Furthermore, the Seahawks are 0-6 ATS all-time in road games occurring in the first month of the season under Carroll. They have lost these by an average score of 24.5 to 10.5. Take the points.

6* NFL Early Blowout on Lions -5
The Key: Look for the Lions to take care of business on their home field Sunday. Detroit will be incredibly motivated after grossly underachieving last year. The fact it was swept by Minnesota last season adds fuel to the fire. The Lions have more talent than the Vikings all over the field. I just don't see Minnesota being able to slow down a Detroit offense that averaged over 400.0 yards per game last season. The Detroit "O" should be even more dynamic this season with the addition of Reggie Bush. Everything Minnesota does stems from the run. That makes it very tough to comeback when it finds itself in a hole, which is exactly where it will be if Detroit doesn't give the ball away. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1. The Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. In head-to-heads, the winning team has won by at least 6 points in 7 of their last 8 meetings. Lay the points.

6* NFL Public Burial on Raiders +10.5
The Key: The public is all over the Indianapolis Colts here, and I believe it will get buried for its support. The Colts won 11 games last season but were fortunate to do so. 9 of their victories came by 7 points or less. 6 of those were decided by 4 points or fewer with another decided in OT. With this info in mind, I don't think Indy is worth the double-digit lay. The Colts will rely on Andrew Luck to move the ball through the air, which plays to Oakland's strength. The Raiders are nice across the back with D.J. Hayden, Tracy Porter, Mike Jenkins and Charles Woodson. Luck had 18 passes picked last season, and I wouldn't be surprised if this group gets him once or twice. I also like the fact Terrelle Pryor is getting the start. He brings an element to the table that is impossible to prepare for. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Bailout on UNLV +10.5
The Key: UNLV lost by 28 at Minnesota last week, but it actually performed better than the final score indicates. The Rebels outgained the Gophers 419-320 but fell victim to a kickoff return for a touchdown, a blocked field goal return for a touchdown and an interception return for a touchdown. I don't see UNLV being so unlucky this time around. Arizona wasn't tested at all in Week 1, and that doesn't bode well for it as it takes a big step up in class. The Wildcats can't be trusted laying this many points considering they are on an 8-22 ATS slide as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. They are also just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games following a victory of 28 points or more. The Rebels have shown the ability to hold their own at home since Hauck took over. They are 13-5 ATS at home with him at the helm and have lost these games by just 4.1 points on average. Look for UNLV to pick up the easy cover as it takes the Wildcats right down to the wire. Take the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Tigers -125
The Key: The Tigers are worth every penny at this price with Verlander on the hill. The big right-hander is 15-4 with a 2.71 ERA in 27 starts versus Kansas City. He has yet to record a win against the Royals this season despite a 2.60 ERA. However, the odds are in our favor as he's notched at least one win over Kansas City each of the last seven years. He'll be very focused here, and I like his chances of getting some run support with the way the Tigers swung the sticks last night. Duffy has a 4.08 ERA in 5 starts against the Tigers and is 0-3 in 3 home starts against them. The Royals are 1-8 in Duffy's last 9 home starts versus a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 Saturday games while the Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 Saturday games. The Tigers are also 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Detroit.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Ohio -4
The Key: Look for Ohio to bounce back in a big way following the beating it took at Louisville. The Bobcats are a much better team than they showed in Week 1 and will prove it here on their home field. The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. North Texas rolled over Idaho at home last week, but it hasn't been the same team on the road where it went 1-6 last season. The North Texas defense allowed nearly 400 yards last week but benefited from 3 takeaways. It doesn't figure to get much help from Ohio, which typically does a great job of protecting the ball. The Bobcats gave it away just once last week, which is significant because they are on a 21-8 ATS run in home games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. Keep in mind that McCarney's squads are 4-16 ATS all-time in road games after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. The Mean Green are a soft 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games following a victory and have lost their last 4 road by an average of 16.8 points. Lay the points.

6* Early *CA$H COW* on Illinois +8
The Key: This line is an overreaction to Cincinnati's lopsided win over Purdue. The Bearcats still have plenty of kinks to work out under new coach Tommy Tuberville, and I expect those kinks to show up in their first road game of the year. The Fighting Illini are more settled in as they've already had a year with Tim Beckman. They were a lot more dominant in their win over S. Illinois than the final score indicates, and they'll be chomping at the bit to show how much they've improved from last season Saturday. It bodes very well for Illinois that it has an experienced signal caller in Scheelhaase to run the offense. He was brilliant last week. The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 20 points. Also, you want to take home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first two weeks of the season that are coming off one or more consecutive victories. Doing so has produced a perfect 8-0 ATS result the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Florida International +24.5
The Key: The books have overcompensated for Central Florida's dominant Week 1 performance at home against Akron, which has a 27-game road losing streak. The Knights haven't been the same team on the road where they are 0-3 ATS in their last 3. It is also worth noting that the Knights are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Florida International looked awful last week at Maryland, but I expect a much better performance at home where it played Louisville to a 7-point game last season. The Golden Panthers are 2-0 ATS versus Central Florida the last two seasons. They played Central Florida to a 13-point game on the road last year and pulled off the upset at home the previous season. With a big game against Penn State on deck, don't expect the Knights to give FIU their full attention. Take the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Marlins -133
The Key: The Marlins have the edge on the mound with Fernandez, who has a 1.29 ERA at home this season. Washington's Haren has a 4.29 ERA on the road. Haren's clubs are 0-6 since the beginning of last season in his starts against teams with a win percentage of 38% or lower. Washington is 0-9 in his starts this season against poor power teams that average 0.9 home runs or less per game. The Nationals are 0-7 in Haren's starts this season versus NL teams scoring 3.8 runs or less per game. They are also 0-7 in his road starts this season when the money line is +125 to -125. The Nationals are 0-6 in Haren's last 6 starts as an underdog. The Marlins are 9-0 in Fernandez's last 9 home starts, 5-0 in his last 5 home starts versus a team with a winning record and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. Additionally, the Fish are 7-0 this season in his home starts after giving up 2 earned runs or fewer in his last 2 outings. Haren is 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 starts versus the Marlins. He's also 0-4 on the money line in 4 career starts in Miami. Take the Marlins.

6* NFL Opening Night *CA$H COW* (NBC) on Broncos -7
The Key: The Broncos defeated the Ravens 34-17 in Baltimore last regular season, and they should have earned a 7-point home victory over the Ravens in the playoffs, but Joe Flacco connected on a 70-yard TD pass to Jacoby Jones and the rest is history. That loss has fueled the Broncos this offseason, and I fully expect them to have their revenge this evening. Excluding pushes, Denver is on a 10-2 ATS run as a favorite and has won by an average score of 31.8 to 16.5 in these games. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games while the Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Also, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Lay the points.

6* NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Florida Atlantic +20.5
The Key: I like the Owls catching big points against an East Carolina squad that struggled with Old Dominion last week. Florida Atlantic stepped on the field with Miami last week so it won't be intimidated in the least as it takes the field with the Pirates. The Owls are 6-0 ATS all-time under Carl Pelini when checking in off a road loss. They are also 6-0 ATS under Pelini when checking in off a cover in a game they lost. In addition, the Owls are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after being held to less than 20 points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Pirates are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Take the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles -147
The Key: The White Sox are 0-6 in their last 6 games, and I expect their struggles to continue against a motivated Baltimore club that is fighting for the final wild card spot. One thing you don't want to do is go against the Orioles at home with Gonzalez on the hill. That's because they are 12-2 in his last 14 home starts. The White Sox are 2-8 in Quintana's last 10 road starts versus a team with a winning record and 12-41 in their last 53 road games versus winning teams. The Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 series openers and 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take Baltimore.

7* NL West Game of the Year on Rockies -119
The Key: With a big lead in the division, the Dodgers are expected to give some of their big guns a breather Wednesday. Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford and Yasiel Puig are expected to sit this one out, and more could be added to the list. In addition, L.A. is giving Edinson Volquez the ball. That bodes extremely well for us as his clubs are 0-6 in his last 6 starts versus the Rockies, a stretch where he's posted a 12.46 ERA. The Dodgers would have a tough enough time winning against Jorge De La Rosa, let alone without some of their key bats. The Rockies are 5-0 in De La Rosa's last 5 starts. They are 6-0 in his home starts this season when the money line is +125 to -125. They are 8-0 in his home starts since the beginning of the 2011 season against winning clubs. They are 11-0 in his home starts since the beginning of the 2011 season against division opponents. Colorado lost yesterday, but it is a perfect 12-0 this season in De La Rosa's starts following a team loss. Take Colorado.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -154
The Key: The Nationals have the advantage on the mound with Gio Gonzalez. The Nationals are 41-20 in his last 61 starts and 21-8 in his last 29 road starts. And, they have never lost with Gonzalez on the mound as a road favorite of -125 or more. They are a perfect 10-0 in this situation, winning by an average of 3.3 runs. He has been dominant against the Phillies. The Nats are 5-1 in his 6 starts against them while he has posted a 2.31 ERA. They are 3-0 in his last 3 starts against the Phillies with all 3 coming in Philadelphia. Take Washington.

6* NCAAF Labor Day Annihilator (ESPN) on Florida State -10
The Key: The Seminoles lost a lot of talent to the NFL, but they still boast a big edge in talent in this matchup. Look for new starting QB Jameis Winston to have a huge season. Considered the top QB recruit in the nation out of high school, the redshirt freshman has the potential to take college football by storm. He will only benefit from playing behind an experienced offensive line and alongside a number of proven weapons. Pitt's offense isn't even in the same category. Starting QB Tom Savage hasn't played since 2010 while with Rutgers and his skill set pales in comparison with Winston's. I don't see him orchestrating much against a very athletic FSU defense. The Pitt defense carried the load last season, and will be asked to do so again, but it didn't face many offenses as dynamic as the one it will see tonight. Two of the best offensive teams it saw, Cincinnati and Louisville, lit it up for 34 and 45 points respectively in double-digit losses. FSU won 10 games by at least 12 points last season. Lay the number.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Padres -143
The Key: Kennedy hasn't been as good as expected this season. However, he has quietly been plenty good lately, holding opponents to 3 earned runs or fewer in 6 of his last 8 starts. Now, is the time to back Kennedy. He's been at his best in September the past couple seasons. In fact, his clubs are 10-0 in his starts the last two Septembers. Zito has been a dead fade. The Giants are 0-3 in his last 3 starts, a stretch where he's posted a 12.27 ERA. He's been awful on the road where he has a 9.65 ERA. The Giants are 0-10 this season in his starts as a road underdog of +100 or higher. The Giants are also 0-5 in his last 5 series-opening starts, 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus losing teams and 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus division opponents. The Giants are 0-3 in Zito's last 3 starts versus the Padres. Take San Diego.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -1.5 -104
The Key: Greinke's clubs are 12-0 in his home starts versus losing clubs since the beginning of last season, winning these starts by an average score of 6.6 to 3.3. His teams are also 13-0 in his home starts in the second half of the season versus losing teams since 2011, winning these by an average score of 4.9 to 2.6. His clubs are 15-0 in his starts as a home favorite of -175 to -250 since the start of the 2011 season, winning these by an average score of 5.9 to 2.5. The Dodgers are 8-0 this season in his starts versus poor power teams that average 0.9 or less home runs per game, winning these by an average score of 3.8 to 1.6. LA is also 8-0 in his starts in the second half of this season versus clubs that draw 3 walks or less per game, winning these by an average score of 4.3 to 2.0. Take the Dodgers on the run line.

6* NCAAF National TV *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Ohio +21
The Key: Louisville is being overvalued here due to its hype. The 9th-ranked Cardinals are considered a national championship contender because an easy schedule provides them with an opportunity to go undefeated. However, this has the potential to be one of Louisville's toughest games. Ohio went 9-4 last season and was even better than that as injuries played a part in its late season struggles. Ohio has a running game that should give Louisville trouble. The Cardinals allowed 4.4 yards per carry in home games last season, and they'll have to contend with an Ohio squad that averaged 203 yards per game on the ground. The Bobcats have been a phenomenal investment in non-conference action, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6. The Cardinals are just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games. Take the points.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Washington -3.5
The Key: This game is all about revenge for Washington, which fell 28-26 to Boise State in last year's Las Vegas Bowl. Keeps in mind the Huskies outgained the Broncos in that contest but were let down by 3 turnovers. Besides the revenge factor, Washington returns 18 starters while Boise State returns just 9. In addition, Washington will be taking the field at Husky Stadium for the first time since 2011 so it and the fan base will be pumped. I don't see Boise State coming in and stealing one in this atmosphere against a more experienced team. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Lay the points.

6* National TV *CA$H COW* (ABC) on Clemson +3
The Key: A Georgia defense that returns just 3 starters won't be ready to stop a high-powered Clemson offense on the road in the season opener. Seven of the starters lost were taken in the NFL draft, including first-rounders Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree. That's a lot of experience and talent to replenish. To make matters worse, safety Josh Harvey-Clemons was given a one-game suspension for an undisclosed violation of team rules. That means cornerback Damian Swann is the only returning starter in the secondary who will play Saturday. With this in mind, I expect a huge game from Tajh Boyd, who led the Tigers to a win over then-No. 9 LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl last season. That LSU team was better defensively than the team it will face this evening. Plus, that win gives Clemson plenty of confidence as it goes up against another SEC foe. Clemson is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 overall, and it is on a 51-32 ATS run in the underdog role. Take the points.

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Brewers -138
The Key: The Halos can't be trusted with Jerome Williams on the mound. They are 0-8 in his last 8 starts and have lost these by over 3 runs on average. The Angels are 0-4 in Williams' last 4 road starts and 0-4 in his last 4 interleague starts. He has a 12.91 in a pair of interleague starts this season. We successfully played against the Brewers Friday, but they are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. They are 17-8 in Estrada's last 25 starts, 9-4 in his last 13 home starts and 6-1 in his last 7 home starts versus a team with a losing record. Take Milwaukee.

6* NCAAF Saturday Night Blowout on Marshall -19
The Key: I expect Marshall to put a hurting on a Miami Ohio squad that went 1-6 last year on the road where it allowed 41.4 ppg. The Miami Ohio offense averaged just 20.6 ppg on the road last season, and it won't be able to keep pace with a Marshall offensive unit that averaged 40.9 ppg a year ago. The Redhawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Marshall is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last 4 home meetings with Miami Ohio. Lay the number.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -122
The Key: The Halos are 5-1 on their current road trip, and I expect them to keep rolling behind a gem from ace Jered Weaver. The Angels are 44-12 in his last 56 starts as a favorite and 7-1 in his last 8 interleague starts. The Brewers are just 1-5 in Peralta's last 6 starts. Milwaukee's right-hander has a 4.51 ERA on the season. That's over a run higher than the 3.46 ERA Weaver is carrying. Peralta's ERA is significant because the Halos are 9-1 all-time under Scioscia in road games versus an NL starter whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70. Take LA.

6* NCAAF *CA$H COW* on SMU +5
The Key: A Texas Tech squad that will be without projected starting quarterback Michael Brewer is being overvalued here. The Red Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall while the Mustangs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. In addition, college teams headed up by June Jones are 9-1 ATS all-time as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. You also want to take home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like SMU that won 51-60% of their games last season if they are matched up against a non-conference opponent that had a winning record last season. Doing so has produced a perfect 10-0 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss -3
The Key: This game is all about payback for Ole Miss. The Rebels have lost three straight in the series, including a one-point heart-breaker last year, and will be out for some serious revenge as a result. Ole Miss returns 19 starters, and head man Hugh Freeze is one heck of a coach. Teams he's headed up are 20-5 ATS all-time. Vandy returns just 13 starters and lost key pieces on both sides of the football. Plus, you want to fade teams in the first week of the season that finished last season with three or more consecutive covers, provided they won 60.0 percent to 80.0 percent of their games and are matched up against an opponent that posted a winning record. That's because doing so has produced a 25-4 ATS mark the last 20 seasons. Lay the points.

6* NFLX *CA$H COW* on Rams -6.5
The Key: Winning this game means absolutely nothing to the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens, who have to turn around and play the regular-season opener on the road next Thursday. This game means a lot more to the Rams, who have yet to notch a victory this preseason. John Harbaugh doesn't put any stock in winning the final preseason game. In fact, Week 4 of the preseason is the only week in which he doesn't have a winning record. Jeff Fisher, on the other hand, is 11-4 in his last 15 Week 4 preseason games. He likes to head into the regular season with some momentum on his side. St. Louis crushed Baltimore 31-17 in the final week of the preseason last year, and it is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last 3 preseason games versus the Ravens. Lay the points.

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Brewers +1.5 -148
The Key: Gallardo is in terrific form. The Brewers are 3-0 in his last 3 starts, a stretch where he posted a 2.65 ERA. Pittsburgh's Cole hasn't been nearly as sharp of late, as evidenced by the 4.24 ERA he's posted over his last 3 starts. Gallardo has owned the Pirates. The Brewers are 14-3 all-time in his starts against Pittsburgh, and he has posted a 2.58 ERA in these games. One of those losses came by a single run so the Brewers have covered today's run line in 15 of Gallardo's 17 starts against the Bucs. Take Milwaukee on the run line.

7* NL Central Game of the Month on Cardinals -149
The Key: With losses in the first two games of this series, the Reds are now 0-5 in their last 5 road games versus teams with a winning record. They are not in good position to end this skid with Bailey getting the ball. The Reds are 0-7 in his last 7 starts as an underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a road underdog. Plus, he's had no luck against the Cards. The Reds are 0-4 in Bailey's last 4 starts versus the Cardinals. They are also 0-7 all-time in his road starts versus St. Louis. The Cardinals, who are 5-0 in their last 5 game 3s of a series, are 3-0 in Wainwright's last 3 starts. He's been lights out in his last two, giving up just 2 runs in 16 innings while striking out 20 and walking 1. Take St. Louis.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 +120
The Key: Verlander isn't having the type of season we've come to expect from him, but I really like him in this spot against a club he's owned. He's 6-0 in his last six starts versus Oakland and has given up one earned run or none in each. These wins have come by an average of 3.5 runs with each coming by at least two runs. It is also worth noting that Detroit is a perfect 11-0 in Verlander's home starts in the second half of the season versus good teams with a winning percentage of 54-62% since 2011. The Tigers have won these games by 2.4 runs on average. Take the Tigers on the run line.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -1.5 -105
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back back defeats, I fully expect the Dodgers to take care of business at home against a Chicago club they have owned. Keep in mind the Dodgers haven't lost three consecutive games since June 8-10. LA is 7-0 in its last 7 versus the Cubs, winning these by 2.6 runs on average. LA is in fantastic hands with Greinke getting the ball. It is 5-0 in his last 5 starts, winning these by 2.8 runs on average. It is also 7-0 in his last 7 starts versus teams that draw 3 walks or less per game, winning these by 2.0 runs on average. In addition, Greinke's clubs are 11-0 since the beginning of last season in his home starts versus teams that have a losing record, winning these by 3.2 runs on average. His clubs are 15-0 since the start of the 2011 season in his home starts as a favorite of -175 to -250, winning these by 3.4 runs on average. Lastly, Greinke is 3-0 all-time in 3 home starts versus the Cubs with his teams winning these by 3.7 runs on average. Take LA on the run line.

6* NFLX *CA$H COW* on Vikings +3
The Key: This game means more to the Minnesota Vikings, who will be out to prove last season's success was no fluke. After losing their first two preseason games, they will come to play against the reigning NFC champs as they consider this game an early measuring stick. San Francisco knows it's a Super Bowl contender so it has nothing to prove. It's biggest task is making it to the regular season healthy. You want to take preseason road teams that allowed a completion percentage of 68% or higher last game (minimum 20 attempts) if they're up against a team that allowed 5.5 passing yards or less per attempt last game. That's because doing so has produced a 21-6 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. This system tightens up to 6-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and is proof of the way oddsmakers overreact to a team coming off a poor defensive performance versus one coming off a strong defensive effort. Take the points.

6* Late Afternoon *MOUND MISMATCH* on Angels -127
The Key: The Angels are a good buy at this price considering the edge they have on the mound with Weaver, whose ERA is nearly two runs lower than Harang's. In addition, Weaver has a 3.32 career ERA against the Mariners while Harang has a 6.83 lifetime ERA against the Halos. The Angels are an impressive 43-12 in Weaver's last 55 starts as a favorite. Harang's clubs are 0-4 in his last 4 starts against the Angels. Seattle has lost all 3 of his starts against the Halos this season by a combined score of 29-6. Take the Angels.

7* AL Game of the Week on Blue Jays -138
The Key: Houston hasn't won more than two consecutive games in over two months so the odds are definitely against it pulling off the sweep here. Houston is batting just .233 and scoring only 3.5 runs per game off of lefty starters this season while Toronto is batting .271 and scoring 5.0 runs per game off southpaw starters. With this in mind, the Jays appear to have a sizable advantage on the mound with Buehrle. They are 4-0 in his last four starts in the third game of a series, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite and 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus AL West clubs. Buehrle's clubs are 3-0 all-time in his starts against the Astros, and he's posted a 1.88 ERA in these starts. He threw a complete-game, 2-hit shutout versus the Astros last month. The Astros are 0-3 in Keuchel's last three home starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts coming on 7 or more days' rest. Take Toronto.

7* NFL Preseason Game of the Year on Jaguars +3.5
The Key: After finishing last season 0-5 and losing their first two preseason games, the Jaguars will be lacking no motivation this evening. They desperately want to enter the regular season with the momentum and confidence that a strong performance can provide, and I expect a strong effort from them here. Blaine Gabbert has been named Jacksonville's starter for their regular-season opener but a hairline thumb fracture will keep him out the rest of the preseason. This gives former Miami Dolphins starting QB Chad Henne an opportunity to win over the coaching staff. The better Henne performs, the shorter Gabbert's leash will be. This is Philly's first game away from home this preseason, and that presents challenges of its own. The Jags are 7-0 ATS all-time in the preseason after two or more consecutive losses. They have won by an average of 8.4 points in this situation. Take the points.

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Nationals -109
The Key: I'll gladly get behind Washington at this price given the advantage it has on the mound with Zimmermann. The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 while Kansas City is 0-6 in its last 6, and they should get a strong performance from Zimm, who is 14-7 with a 3.37 ERA. The Nationals are 7-0 in his last 7 starts in the second game of a series and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus the American League Central. The Royals, who are 0-6 in their last 6 home games, don't figure to get a gem from Davis, who's 6-9 with a 5.43 ERA. The Royals are 0-4 in Davis' last 4 starts as a home underdog. Take Washington.

6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Reds -1.5 +108
The Key: The Reds are showing value on the run line give the edges they hold on the mound and at the plate. The Reds lost yesterday, and that's in our best interest. Consider that they are 14-1 since the beginning of last season in home games following an upset loss at home to a division rival. They are also 14-1 since the start of last season in home games when out for revenge for an upset loss at home in a game where they were listed at -150 or higher. In addition, Cincy is 19-2 this season in home games following a defeat. It is also 9-1 this season when Arroyo gets the ball following a loss. The Reds have won each of Arroyo's last 3 starts by 2 runs or more while the Brewers have dropped Peralta's last 2 by 2 runs or more. The Reds have won both of Arroyo's starts against the Brewers this season while the Brewers have lost each of Peralta's 3 career starts in Cincinnati. Take Cincy on the run line.

7* National League Game of the Month on Giants -143
The Key: The Giants are this large of a favorite for a reason, and that reason is the significant advantage they have on the mound with Bumgarner. He has a 2.87 ERA on the season and a 2.40 ERA at home. Pittsburgh's Morton has a road ERA that's over a run higher than Bumgarner's home number. The Giants are 25-11 in Bumgarner's last 36 starts as a home favorite. The Pirates are 13-30 in Morton's last 43 road starts, 19-42 in his last 61 starts as an underdog, 5-15 in his last 20 road starts versus a team with a losing record and 1-5 in his last 6 starts versus the Giants. Bumgarner has a 0.69 ERA against the Bucs, and they haven't seen him since 2011. They'll be in for a rude awakening. San Francisco just saw Morton in June in a game it won 10-0. Take the Giants.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Packers +2.5
The Key: With Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay starters expected to play into the third quarter, I like their chances of taking care of business this evening. Mike McCarthy has placed a lot of importance on the third preseason game since coming to town. In fact, the Packers are 5-0 in their last 5 Week 3 preseason games, winning these by an average of 12.4 points. The Packers don't want to finish the preseason 0-2 at home. Plus, this game means a little more because it's a rematch of last season's infamous "Fail Mary" contest. Green Bay doesn't play the Seahawks during the regular season so it will be out for revenge and to send a message. Green Bay's run defense has been outstanding, and ultimately I believe that will be the difference here as so much of what Seattle does offensively stems from its running game. The Packers are 14-4 ATS in the preseason since 1993 following a game where they allowed 75 rushing yards or less. Take Green Bay.

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Cardinals -132
The Key: The Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Kelly. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall, and he's allowed 1 earned run or fewer in 3 of these. The Cards are also 3-0 in his last 3 home starts. The Braves are 0-3 in Maholm's last 3 starts, a stretch where he's posted a 10.13 ERA. He has an ERA of 6.03 on the road this season. Maholm's clubs are 0-11 in his road starts since the beginning of last season when the total is 8.0 to 8.5. They have lost these starts by an average score of 5.5 to 2.5. In addition, Maholm's clubs have lost 4 of his last 5 starts against the Cardinals and are 0-2 in St. Louis during this stretch. He allowed 10 earned runs in 10 innings in the 2 losses in St. Louis. Take St. Louis.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Lions -1
The Key: You want to play on all preseason teams when the line is +3 to -3 that check in off 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread and are matched up against an opponent coming off 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. That's because doing so has produced a 28-10 ATS mark the last 10 preseasons. In addition, the Lions are a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time in the preseason under coach Schwartz versus AFC East opponents. They have defeated them by an average score of 26.5 to 15.7. This game clearly means more to the Lions, who finished last season with 8 consecutive losses. Schwartz plays to win in the preseason. The Lions are 13-5 in 18 preseason games under him, including 7-1 in the final two weeks of the exhibition season. Belichick has been far less concerned about winning in the preseason. His team is off to a 2-0 start this year but has won more than 2 preseason games just once in the past nine years. Take Detroit.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -163
The Key: Look for the Royals to bounce back this evening against a Chicago club that is 11-30 in its last 41 road games, 13-39 in its last 52 road games versus a team with a winning record and 5-18 in its last 23 in the second game of a series. The Royals are 12-3 in their last 15 in the second game of a series, and they are in good hands with Guthrie. They Royals are 25-11 in his last 36 starts, 16-5 in his last 21 home starts and 10-2 in his last 12 starts in the second game of a series. The Royals are also 6-1 in Guthrie's last seven starts versus the White Sox. Take Kansas City.

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Indians -143
The Key: It's been a terribly disappointing season for the Angels, who will have a tough time bouncing back from yesterday's 14-inning punch in the gut. LA's Williams is having a terrible campaign. The Angels are 0-7 in his last seven starts, and he's given up at least four runs in nine of his last 12 outings. The Angels are also 0-5 in his last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Angels are 0-5 in their last five home games versus a right-handed starter, 0-6 in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 in their last four in the third game of a series. Justin Masterson isn't the righty they want to see. The Indians are 3-0 in his last three starts against the Angels, and he has a 1.94 ERA in eight career starts against them. It is also worth noting that the Tribe is 4-0 in its last four road games versus a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -144
The Key: The Dodgers will go after this game with all they've got because they have to win it to give themselves a chance at a sixth straight series win. They have at least split each of their last 17 series' so they must win at least two in Miami to keep their unbeaten series streak alive. You can bet they'll leave it all on the field to make sure the NL-worst Marlins don't rain on their parade. The Dodgers are 42-10 in their last 52 overall and 24-5 in their last 29 on the road. They are 6-0 in Capuano's last 6 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus a team with a losing record, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 11-1 in his last 12 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Marlins are 1-5 in Turner's last 6 starts and 0-7 in his last 7 starts versus an opponent that allowed 5 runs or more in its previous game. Take the Dodgers.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -126
The Key: Weaver was absolutely rocked at New York in his most recent start. That actually bodes well for us because he will be that much more focused and determined tonight. It hasn't been wise to go against the Angels' ace at home. In fact, LA is 20-4 in his home starts since the beginning of last season. In addition, LA is 39-14 all-time in his home starts as a favorite of -150 or less. Weaver just pitched a gem in a 5-2 win at Cleveland Aug. 9, and he's 7-2 with a 2.86 ERA in 15 career starts versus the Indians. The Angels have won 11 of these. Take Los Angeles.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Steelers +2.5
The Key: The Steelers haven't lost more than one preseason game in any of Mike Tomlin's previous six seasons. In other words, the guy plays to win. I expect his troops to respond after falling in their opener. We also find some more history on Pittsburgh's side. Preseason underdogs or pickems that check in off an upset defeat, provided they have a losing record, are 48-22 ATS the last 10 seasons. Pittsburgh has been so tough in the preseason because of how deep, talented and disciplined it is defensively. Its defense will be the difference tonight.

6* NFLX *CA$H COW* on Colts +2
The Key: Indianapolis will be a lot more focused and hungrier after getting kicked by Buffalo in its opener, especially since it was called out by owner Jim Irsay. Consider that the Colts are on a 15-5 ATS run in the preseason following a loss of 10 points or more. Plus, you want to take preseason underdogs of pickems that check in off an upset loss at home, provided they have a losing preseason record. That's because doing so has produced a 45-20 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. In addition, you want to fade home teams that are undefeated in the preseason when the line is +3 to -3. Making this move has produced a 52-26 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Take the points.

7* MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Rangers -1.5 -129
The Key: I expect Texas to win convincingly this afternoon as it faces Seattle scheduled starter Ramirez, who has a hefty 7.06 ERA. The Rangers are in much better hands with Yu Darvish, who has a 2.64 ERA. He leads the majors with 207 strikeouts and opponents are batting just .186 against him. Darvish is 3-0 in his last three starts with a 1.64 ERA. He's also 3-0 all-time in three home starts versus the Mariners. The Rangers won these three by six, six and seven runs, respectively. Take Texas on the run line.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Titans +2.5
The Key: The Titans were upset at home by Washington in their preseason opener, but that actually bodes well for us here. Consider that preseason underdogs or pickems with a losing record that are coming off an upset defeat at home are 20-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Titans are on an 18-7 ATS run in the preseason when listed as a road underdog. It is also worth noting that Cincinnati is on a 10-22 ATS slide in the preseason when coming off 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread. The Titans have played to win in the preseason, going 6-3 under coach Mike Munchak. They are the team with more to prove and will be hungry following last week's 1-point loss.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -162
The Key: I'll fade Arizona as it sends Cahill to the hill for the first time in nearly seven weeks. He was awful on the road, where he carried a 5.44 ERA, before going on the DL. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in Cahill's last 5 road starts. The Pirates, who are 6-0 in their last 6 at home, are in good hands with Locke set to get the ball. The southpaw is 9-3 with a 2.43 ERA on the season. The Pirates are 4-0 in Locke's last 4 starts as a home favorite. The Pirates are 23-6 in their last 29 games as a home favorite, and they've won 8 of their last 11 home games versus Arizona. Take Pittsburgh.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on A's -127
The Key: The A's are showing value at home at this price with A.J. Griffin on the hill. They are 16-4 in his last 20 home starts and 6-1 in his last 7 starts as a favorite. Griffin has a 3.63 ERA at home and a 1.131 WHIP. His WHIP is significant because the Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Indians are also 0-4 in their last 4 series openers and 0-4 in their last 4 versus teams with a winning record. Cleveland's Justin Masterson has been hit hard in his last two outings, and he has a 4.37 road ERA on the season. The Indians are 0-5 in his last 5 road starts versus teams with a winning record. He has a 9.08 ERA in 7 career starts versus the A's, and the Indians are 0-4 all-time in his road starts against them. The Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 meetings in Oakland. Take the A's.

6* NFLX National TV *CA$H COW* (FOX) on Buccaneers +3
The Key: The Bucs are supported by a pair of strong preseason systems. You want to take preseason underdogs or pickems that have a losing record and are checking in off an upset loss at home. Doing so has produced a 43-18 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system tightens up to 19-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, you want to fade preseason home teams with a winning record when the line is +3 to -3 if they are coming off 1 or more consecutive straight up wins. Doing so has produced a 73-37 ATS record over the last 10 seasons. This system is 15-6 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Bucs are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last 7 preseason games versus New England. Take the points.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Vikings +3.5
The Key: Minnesota fits neatly into a very lucrative preseason system. You want to take underdogs or pickems that were held to 14 points or less in their last preseason game if they are matched up against an opponent that scored 30 points or more in its last game. Doing so has produced a 24-6 ATS mark since 1993. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. In addition, Minnesota has had two extra days of preparation time as it last played Aug. 9 while Buffalo last played Aug. 11. The Vikings didn't give their starters much time at all in Week 1, but that is expected to change tonight. Minnesota is 2-0 in Week 2 of the preseason under coach Frazier. Take the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers +1.5 -133
The Key: I'll gladly take the Brewers catching 1.5 runs at a pretty nice price with Lohse on the hill. The Brewers are 5-0 in his last five starts, and he's posted a 1.74 ERA during this stretch. They are also 7-0 in his last seven home starts, and he's recorded a 2.56 ERA during this span. Lohse has a 1.95 ERA over his last eight starts against the Reds, and his clubs are 4-0 in his last four home starts against them. It is also worth mentioning that the Brewers are 4-0 in Lohse's last four starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 5-0 in his last five series-opening starts. The Brewers check in off a loss but are 4-0 in their last four games following defeat. The Reds are just 1-5 in their last six meetings in Milwaukee. Take the Brew Crew on the run line.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Falcons +5
The Key: The Falcons apply to two awesome preseason systems. You want to take underdogs or pickems that were held to 14 points or less in their last game if they are matched up against an opponent that scored 30 points or more in its last game. Doing so has produced a 23-6 ATS mark since 1993, and this system is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. In addition, you want to fade home teams coming off a win by 14 points or more if their opponent was held to 3 points or less in the first half of its last game. Doing so has produced a 21-5 ATS record since 1993. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockies -134
The Key: I love the Rockies at home at this price with De La Rosa getting the ball. They are 10-0 in his home starts against division opponents since the start of the 2011 season. They are also 7-0 this season when he gets the start in a day game. Colorado lost yesterday, but it is 9-0 this season in De La Rosa's starts following a loss in its previous game. This trend speaks to the type of competitor De La Rosa is and how confident the Rockies are with him on the mound. In addition, the Rocks are 10-0 in De La Rosa's last 10 starts against the Padres. Take Colorado.

6* AL *CA$H COW* on Tigers -153
The Key: The White Sox are 0-5 in Danks' last 5 starts. They are 0-5 this season in his starts versus division opponents. They are also 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus teams that have a winning record and 0-4 in his last 4 starts as an underdog. He's 0-2 in a pair of starts against the Tigers this season. Detroit doesn't run much. It has beat teams with timely hitting and power hitting. This is significant because the White Sox are 0-11 in Danks' starts since the beginning of the 2011 season versus teams that average 0.35 stolen bases per game. The Tigers are 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 starts as a favorite. They are also 3-0 in his starts against the White Sox this season. Take Detroit in this bounce back spot.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -123
The Key: The Dodgers are 8-0 in the second half of the season versus NL clubs with a batting average of .245 or worse. They are 10-0 in the second half of the season versus NL teams with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse. The Mets have won five of seven but are 0-14 this season when checking into a contest with five or six wins in their last seven games. New York's Harvey has had a spectacular season, but LA's Ryu has been every bit as good. The Dodgers are 8-0 in Ryu's last eight starts while the Mets have lost two of Harvey's last three and four of his last seven. The Dodgers are 8-0 this season in Ryu's starts versus teams that have a losing record. The Mets are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings with the Dodgers. Take LA.

7* Monday Night Baseball Game of the Year on Yankees -155
The Key: The Yankees enter this series with plenty of momentum after winning a series against the reigning AL champion Tigers. They should get a gem from Kuroda, who owns the best home ERA (1.74) in the AL. The Yankees are 7-0 in Kuroda's last 7 home starts versus teams with losing records. Kuroda has a 2.67 career ERA against the Angels with his clubs going 3-0 in his last 3 starts against them. LA's Richards was shelled in his only previous start against the Yankees, giving up 6 runs in 5 innings of a 9-3 loss. He's really struggled on the road where the Angels are 0-4 in his last 4 starts. He has a 6.11 road ERA this season. The Angels are 0-9 in their last 9 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take New York.

6* NL *CA$H COW* on Pirates -139
The Key: Pittsburgh has the edge on the mound with Jeff Locke, who's 9-3 with a 2.47 ERA in 22 starts. He's been at his best on the road where he has a 1.83 ERA. The Rockies haven't been able to breakthrough against good NL starters as they are 6-19 this season versus NL starting pitchers that have an ERA of 3.00 or better. They have lost by an average score of 4.5 to 2.7 in these contests. It is also worth noting that the Rockies are 17-39 in their last 56 games versus a left-handed starter. Take Pittsburgh.

7* AL Game of the Week on Indians -1.5 +111
The Key: The Angels are at a disadvantage with Jerome Williams on the hill. They are 0-5 in his last 5 starts with an average losing margin of 3.4 runs. Williams has a 5.46 ERA on the season. Cleveland's Justin Masterson, meanwhile, has a 3.46 ERA. His home ERA is 2.82, and his day game ERA is 1.98. Williams has a 6.33 ERA in day starts. The Indians are 9-3 in Masterson's last 12 home starts. Masterson's clubs are 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus the Angels, and he has a 1.35 ERA in 7 career starts against LA. The Angels are 0-7 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +151 to +200 while the Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Take Cleveland on the run line.

7* Interleague Game of the Month on Dodgers -146
The Key: Greinke has been an incredible investment at home where he has a 2.56 ERA this season. His clubs are 36-5 in his home starts dating back to the beginning of the 2011 season. The Dodgers are 8-1 in his home starts. Tampa Bay's Hernandez has struggled mightily on the road where he has a 5.71 ERA this season. The Rays are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts and 0-6 in his last 6 starts as a road underdog. The Rays are also 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games versus a winning club. Take the Dodgers.

7* Run Line Rout of the Week on Rockies +1.5
The Key: The Rockies are showing tremendous value catching 1.5 runs at this price with De La Rosa on the hill. They are an incredible 40-15 in his last 55 home starts, including 14-2 in his last 16 home starts versus teams with a winning record. Colorado is happy to be back home following a tough 10-game road trip. It has lost its last five games, but it is 8-0 this season in De La Rosa's starts when it checks in off a loss. It has won by an average score of 5.9 to 3.8 in this spot. It is also worth noting that Colorado has won or lost by a single run in five of De La Rosa's last seven starts against the Pirates. The Pirates are just -5 in their last 6 games as a road favorite. Take Colorado.

7* NFLX Game of the Week on Cardinals +3
The Key: The Green Bay Packers are just 2-5 in Week 1 of the Preseason under coach Mike McCarthy, and they have lost each of their last three preseason openers. McCarthy typically doesn't show much of anything in Week 1 of the exhibition season, and his starters likely won't get much work at all considering the way the injury bug is already creeping in. Starting left tackle Bryan Bulaga has been lost for the season and star wideout Jordy Nelson will miss the preseason. These injuries serve as a reminder that the most important thing is to reach the regular season healthy. The Arizona Cardinals are in a different position as they are coming off a poor season and are under new leadership with Bruce Arians as head man. New coaches have more to prove in the preseason, as do teams that are coming off a dismal campaign. Take the Cardinals.

6* NFLX *CA$H COW* on Chargers +2.5
The Key: The Chargers have a lot more to play for this preseason following a disappointing 7-9 campaign. Rookie head coach Mike McCoy wants to make a good impression by showing well during these exhibition games. Plus, the Chargers are implementing a new offense so all signs point to their starters seeing more action than Seattle's tonight. The Seahawks expect to be Super Bowl contenders so their primary concern is reaching the regular season healthy and evaluating their younger players. The Seahawks know what kind of a team they have and the things they can do to be successful. With this in mind, I'll get behind the team that has more to play for.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -118
The Key: The Red Sox are showing value at this price with Jon Lester on the hill. The veteran southpaw has a strong track record against the Royals. He's 6-2 with an ERA of 1.64 in nine starts against them. Kansas City is batting only .233 and scoring just 3.3 runs per game off left-handed starters this season. Boston, meanwhile, is batting .261 and scoring 4.5 runs per game off lefty starters. It figures to have success at the plate against Bruce Chen, who is 3-5 with a 6.11 ERA in 11 starts against the Red Sox. His clubs are 1-6 in his last 7 starts versus Boston while the Red Sox are 5-2 in Lester's last 7 starts versus the Royals. Take Bean Town.

6* MLB Wednesday Night *CA$H COW* on Indians +111
The Key: Despite losing the first two games of this series, the Tribe is still 10-3 in its last 13 overall. It's 10-3 in its last 13 games after losing the first two games of a series and 4-0 in its last four games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. In addition, Cleveland is 10-0 since the beginning of last season when checking in off two straight home defeats to a division rival. It has won by an average score of 6.8 to 3.1 in this spot. Detroit's Fister hasn't been as strong on the road where he has a 4.08 ERA. The Tigers are 3-13 in his last 16 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 1-7 in his last eight starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 0-5 in his last five road starts versus a team with a winning record. Detroit is also 0-3 in his last three starts in Cleveland. Take the Tribe.

7* MLB Day Game of the Month on Padres +111
The Key: The Padres lost the first game of this two-game set 4-1, but they are 7-0 in their last seven games following a loss and 8-0 in their last eight after being held to two runs or less in their previous game. The Orioles are 0-4 in their last four Game 2s of a series and 0-4 in their last four games versus a left-handed starter. Their struggles against lefties should continue as the Padres are 8-1 in Stults' last nine starts at home where he has a 2.35 ERA on the season. His clubs are 9-0 since the beginning of last season in his home starts versus teams that draw an average of three walks or less per game. Baltimore's Miguel Gonzalez has been lit up in his last two starts, and the Orioles are just 2-7 in his last nine road starts. Take San Diego.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -165
The Key: The Giants have the edge on the mound with Matt Cain, who has looked more like himself lately. The veteran right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA over his last three starts. In addition, he's allowed three earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts. It bodes well for us that he enters off a gem because the Giants are 23-9 in his last 32 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. Milwaukee's Wily Peralta has had an up and down season, and it's been down lately. He's 0-2 in his last two starts while giving up 12 runs in just 8 2-3 innings. The Brewers are 3-8 in Peralta's last 11 starts as a road underdog. Milwaukee is just 3-19 since the beginning of last season as an underdog of +150 or higher. It is also 9-33 since the start of last season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. The Giants, on the other hand, are 56-23 in their last 79 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 home games versus the Brewers. Take San Francisco.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -166
The Key: The Royals are rolling. They've won 11 of 12 and should keep right on rolling against a Minnesota club they have dominated. Kansas City is 10-3 this season against the Twins, including 4-0 in the last four meetings. The Royals are in good hands with Jeremy Guthrie. He is 3-0 in his last three starts, which is even more significant when you consider that the Royals are 6-0 this season in his home starts when he checks in off a win. The Royals are 15-2 in Guthrie's last 17 home starts. The Twins aren't in the same hands with Kevin Correia on the rubber. They are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts on regular rest (4 days). His clubs are 0-4 all-time in his starts versus Kansas City, and he's posted a poor 5.02 ERA in these games. The Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite, 6-0 in their last 6 versus the American League Central and 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Twins are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog and 0-4 in their last 4 versus the American League Central. Take Kansas City.

6* Hall of Fame Game "Total" Annihilator on Dolphins/Cowboys Under 33
The Key: Trends show the edge going to the defensive side of the football early in the preseason. We have seen 2 straight and 4 of the last 6 preseason openers finish under the total. Expect both offenses to struggle this evening as the third string quarterbacks get plenty of work. Tony Romo and Kyle Orton are already locked in at the No. 1 and No. 2 spots so we should see plenty of Nick Stephens or Alex Tanney, who are fighting for third string. It's the same story for the Dolphins as Ryan Tannehill and Matt Moore already have the top two spots sewed up. Pat Devlin should get the majority of the snaps for Miami. Take the Under.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -119
The Key: The Brewers have the edge on the mound with Lohse. They are 3-0 in his last 3 starts while he's posted a 0.47 ERA. They are 6-0 in his last 6 home starts, 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus a team with a losing record and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. Lohse's clubs are also 15-1 since the beginning of last season in his starts versus NL clubs with a batting average of .245 or worse. His clubs are 11-1 during the same time frame in his starts versus NL clubs that average 3.8 runs or fewer per game. Take Milwaukee.

7* MLB Run Line Game of the Month on Tigers -1.5 -125
The Key: The Tigers are rolling. They are 7-0 in their last seven home games with a 5.6-run average winning margin. The White Sox, meanwhile, are ice cold. They are 0-8 in their last eight games overall with a 2.3-run average losing margin. Detroit has been lighting up left-handed pitching. It is batting .277 and scoring 5.4 runs per game off southpaw starters this season and is 8-0 in its last eight games versus a lefty starter. The Tigers won these eight by an average of 4.9 runs. Their success against lefties should continue as Chicago is 0-3 in Danks' starts versus AL Central foes this season. It's lost these starts by 3.0 runs on average while he's posted a 6.50 ERA. The White Sox are 0-4 in his last four starts in Detroit, losing these by 4.0 runs on average. Chicago is 0-4 in its last four road games versus right-handed starters and will have its work cut our for itself as it goes up against Scherzer. The Tigers are 8-0 in his starts versus AL Central opponents this season. They've won these by an average of 8.0 runs while he's posted a 3.20 ERA. The Tigers are 4-0 in his last four starts against the Sox, winning these by an average of 3.0 runs. Take Detroit on the run line.