Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Warriors/Rockets Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -1 

The Key: The Houston Rockets are the only team in the NBA that has the goods to beat the Warriors.  They are very similar teams, but the Rockets have the deeper bench and will be able to hang with the Warriors in this series.  I think they take Game 1 tonight in Houston.  They won 2 of 3 meetings with the Warriors during the regular season.  They are hungry for a title and realize this is their best chance since Hakeem Olajuwon.  Houston is 22-8 ATS off a home ATS loss where they won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.  The Rockets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on 3 or more days of rest.  Take Houston. 

6* Sunday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Reds/Dodgers OVER 7.5 

The Key: This total has been set lower than it should be today.  Luis Castillo and Rich Hill have both been awful this year and should get rocked.  Castillo is 2-4 with a 6.47 ERA in 8 starts, and 1-2 with a 7.22 ERA in 5 road starts.  Hill is 1-1 with a 7.11 EREA in 4 starts this year, including 0-1 with a 10.38 ERA in his lsat 3 starts.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hill’s last 4 starts overall.  Take the OVER. 

7* Cavs/Celtics Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -1.5 

The Key: Lebron James and the Cavaliers will prove to be too much for the Celtics in this series, and it starts with Game 1 tonight.  They are extra rested after sweeping the Raptors and will look to continue their dominance of the Celtics in the playoffs.  The Cavs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a blowout home win by 20 points or more.  That’s a 91% angle backing the Cavs here this afternoon.  Take Cleveland. 

7* MLB Total of the Month on Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 9 

The Key: We should see plenty of runs tonight between the Red Sox and Blue Jays.  David Price is returning from injury and is 0-3 with an 8.47 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  Marco Estrada has struggled all year to the tune of a 5.21 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 7 starts.  Estrada has allowed 12 earned runs in 7 2/3 innings in his last 2 starts against the Red Sox.  Take the OVER. 

7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+105) 

The Key: The Dodgers have lost 4 of their last 5 and will be hungry for a victory here Friday against the Reds.  They should get it with room to spare. Kenta Maeda has pitched well at home this year at 1-1 with a 1.98 ERA in 3 starts.  Maeda is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his lone lifetime start vs. Cincinnati. Matt Harvey can’t be too motivated after getting traded to the terrible Reds. Harvey has been broken over the last few years.  He is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 4 starts this season.  Harvey is also 2-2 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles.  The Dodgers are 10-3 in Maeda’s last 13 home starts.  The Reds are 26-56 in the last 82 meetings.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

7* Red Sox/Yankees AL East *Total* Annihilator on OVER 9 

The Key: I expect plenty of runs tonight between two of the best offenses in baseball.  The Yankees are scoring 5.7 RPG overall and 6.4 RPG at home.  The Red Sox are scoring 5.5 RPG overall.  C.C. Sabathia has pitched well this year but he’s getting too much respect from oddsmakers with this low total.  And Eduardo Rodriquez sports a 5.29 ERA in 6 starts this year, including a 7.02 ERA in his last 3 outings.  The Yankees are 8-1 OVER as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  New York is 13-2 OVER in home games after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.  The OVER is 6-1 in Rodriquez’s last 7 starts.  The OVER is 4-1 in Sabathia’s last 5 home starts.  Take the OVER. 

7* 76ers/Celtics Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston +1 

The Key: The Boston Celtics simply do not lose at home.  They have not only gone 7-0 straight up, but also 7-0 against the spread in their last 7 home games.  Now they are home underdogs to the 76ers in Game 5, where they just have to win to cover.  Sign me up.  The Celtics are 10-0 ATS as home underdogs this season.  They are also 10-0 ATS when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss this season.  Couple these trends with the 7-0 home trend and we have a 27-0 angle backing the Celtics.  Take Boston. 

6* Interleague *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh Pirates -106 

The Key: The Chicago White Sox are a mess right now and cannot be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  The White Sox are 1-8 in their last 9 games overall.  The Pirates hung 10 runs on them yesterday and have now scored a combined 19 runs over their past two games.  Their bats should stay hot against Reynaldo Lopez, who gave up 5 runs in his last start against the White Sox.  Trevor Williams has been lights out for the Pirates this season.  He is 4-2 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 7 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 4 road starts.  The White Sox are 3-14 at home this year, including 1-9 in home day games.  The Pirates are 9-2 in their last 11 interleague games.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Pelicans/Warriors Game 5 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 228.5 

The Key: The Pelicans and Warriors have combined for 224, 237, 219 and 210 points in games 1-4, respectively.  They have been lower scoring games than oddsmakers have anticipated, and I think there’s a good chance Game 5 stays well UNDER 228.5 points as well.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 or more, an extremely well rested team playing 5 or less games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 67-34 since 1996.  Take the UNDER. 

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Washington Nationals -116 

The Key: The Washington Nationals are 8-1 in their last 9 games overall.  They have gotten some key pieces back from injury in their lineup, and their pitching has been lights out.  This is a generous price on the Nationals tonight as small road favorites over the Padres, who are just 13-23 this season.  Jeremy Hellickson sports a 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 4 starts this year.  He’ll be opposed by Clayton Richard, who is 1-4 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 7 starts.  The Padres are 2-12 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season.  San Diego is 5-21 in Richard’s last 26 starts against NL East opponents.  The Padres are 0-6 in Richard’s last 6 starts against the Nationals.  Take Washington. 

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia Phillies -105 

The Key: The Phillies get the nod tonight due to their edge on the mound.  Zach Eflin was sharp in giving up just one earned runs in 6 innings against the Marlins in his last start.  He has a 1.50 ERA on the season.  Jeff Samardzija is making his way back from injury, and it has been a rocky start to the season.  Samardzija is 1-1 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 3 starts this year.  He is also 1-3 with a 9.23 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against Philadelphia.  The Phillies are 10-1 in their last 11 home games off 9 straight games against division opponents.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Celtics/76ers Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -6 

The Key: The 76ers have blown late leads in each of the last two games in this series.  They know they are better than Boston and still have hope that they can make this a series.  It starts with a victory in Game 4 tonight.  Philadelphia is 11-2 ATS in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.  The 76ers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games.  Take Philadelphia. 

6* Sunday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Orioles/A’s OVER 9 

The Key: Expect plenty of runs between the Orioles and A’s this afternoon to push this total OVER 9 runs.  Both starting pitchers are terrible.  Alex Cobb has gone 0-3 with a 9.68 ERA and 2.38 WHIP in 4 starts this year for the Orioles.  Andrew Triggs is 2-1 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 6 starts for the A’s, including 0-0 with a 9.95 ERA and 2.05 WHIP in two home starts.  Oakland is 28-12 in its last 40 home day games.  Baltimore is 37-20 OVER in its last 57 road day games.  The OVER is 10-4 in Orioles last 14 road games.  The OVER is 9-2 in Triggs’ last 11 starts.  Take the OVER. 

7* Warriors/Pelicans Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -6 

The Key: The Golden State Warriors had an uncharacteristic poor shooting night in Game 3 and were blown out by the Pelicans 119-100.  They shot just 38% as a team and 29% from 3-point range.  The chances of them shooting anything close to that poorly in Game 4 are slim to none.  The Pelicans are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games off an upset win by 15 points or more as a home underdog.  Bets on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points when revenging a loss where the other team scored 100 points or more against an opponent that’s off a home win where they scored 110 or more points are 32-11 ATS since 1996.  Take Golden State. 

6* Astros/Diamondbacks Interleague *CA$H COW* on Houston -120 

The Key: The Houston Astros didn’t need their bullpen at all last night as Gerrit Cole tossed a complete game shutout in an 8-0 victory.  They likely won’t need their bullpen much in this one either with Charlie Morton on the mound, but it’s nice to know they are fresh.  Morton has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last 2 seasons.  He has been especially good this season, going 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 6 starts with 45 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings.  Zack Greinke has been hittable this season as he’s 3-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 6 starts.  Morton is 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA in 7 lifetime starts against Arizona, including 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his last 4 starts against the Diamondbacks, yielding just 4 earned runs in 25 1/3 innings.  The Astros are 7-0 in their last 7 road games.  The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague games against a right-handed starter.  Take Houston. 

7* Celtics/76ers Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -8.5 

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers blew a 22-point lead at Boston in Game 2.  I expect them to get up big in Game 3 as well and not relinquish the lead this time playing in front of their home fans.  They know this series is far from over if they handle their business at home these next two games.  I always like backing the team that’s down 0-2, especially when their at home because they usually give their best effort in Game 3 in this situation.  Philadelphia is 8-0 ATS in Saturday home games this season.  The 76ers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games overall.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Warriors/Pelicans Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans +5 

The Key: If the Pelicans are going to win a game in this series, it’s likely to be Game 3 tonight at home.  They were impressive in Game 2 in giving the Warriors all they wanted in a 5-point loss as 11-point underdogs.  Now they are catching 5 points at home tonight, which is too much.  The Pelicans are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games.  Golden State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%.  Take New Orleans. 

6* NL East Game of the Week on Washington Nationals -121 

The Key: The Washington Nationals have been grossly underrated after their 11-16 start to the season.  They have since reeled off 5 straight victories to get to .500 and have a chance to get a winning record here today as they host the Phillies.  They have the clear edge on the mound with Gio Gonzalez, who is 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 6 starts, and 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in 3 home starts.  Nick Pivetta is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA in 6 starts for the Phillies, but 0-0 with a 4.00 ERA in 2 road starts.  Pivetta is 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA in two lifetime starts against Washington.  Gonzalez is 10-7 with a 2.69 ERA in 23 lifetime starts vs. Philadelphia.  The Phillies are 34-71 in their last 105 road games.  Take Washington.

6* A’s/Mariners AL West *BAILOUT* on Oakland -108 

The Key: The A’s have a huge edge on the mound tonight and should be bigger favorites against the Mariners.  Sean Manaea has been virtually unhittable to this point.  He is 4-2 with a 1.03 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in 6 starts this season.  Manaea is 4-3 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 8 lifetime starts against Seattle.  He held the Mariners to 1 run and 2 hits in 7 innings of a 2-1 victory in Seattle on April 15th in his last start against them.  Wade LeBlanc will be making his season debut for the Mariners tonight and will be on a short leash.  The A’s are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Oakland is 8-2 in Manaea’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 home games.  Take Oakland. 

7* Cavs/Raptors Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -6.5 

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are in a must-win situation already after giving away Game 1.  The Cavaliers’ role players like JR Smith and Kyle Korver got hot from 3-point range and helped stage a comeback from 14 points down.  The Cavs would win in overtime.  I look for the Cavs to relax and the Raptors to be going pedal to the metal in Game 2.  The Cavs are still just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Raptors are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Toronto is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Toronto. 

6* Yankees/Astros AL *CA$H COW* on Houston +112 

The Key: It’s rare that you get the opportunity to back the Houston Astros as home underdogs.  We’ll take advantage tonight as they host the New York Yankees.  The head-to-head pitching matchup clearly favors the Astros.  Dallas Keuchel is the Yankees’ killer, going 6-3 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts against them.  Luis Severino has never beaten the Astros, going 0-2 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against them.  Take Houston. 

7* Jazz/Rockets Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah +11 

The Key: Bets against home favorites when leading in a playoff series, a team that wins 75% or more of their games against a team with a winning record are 45-21  ATS since 1996.  The Rockets are 1-10 ATS off 3 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 2 years.  The price is right to back the Jazz as double-digit underdogs in Game 2 tonight.  Take Utah. 

6* Yankees/Astros AL *CA$H COW* on Houston -160 

The Key: Justin Verlander still hasn’t lost as a member of the Houston Astros.  Verlander is 9-0 with a 1.22 ERA in 11 starts during the regular season with Houston.  He is 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA in 6 starts this season.  Jordan Montgomery isn’t good enough to take hime down.  He’s 2-0 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 5 starts this year as walks have been an issue for him.  Montgomery is 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. Houston.  Verlander is 3-0 with a 0.79 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Yankees, yielding just 2 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings.  The Yankees are 0-7 in their last 7 meetings in Houston.  The Astros are 14-2 in Verlander’s last 16 starts.  Take Houston. 

7* Cavs/Raptors Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -6.5 

The Key: Toronto has a big rest advantage in Game 1 of this series.  They haven’t played since April 27th, while the Cavs played two days ago on April 29th.  The Cavs were pushed to the brink by the Pacers and needed a Game 7 at home to win that series.  Their 4 wins in that series came by a combined 14 points.  They are clearly more vulnerable than they have been in years’ past.  The Raptors have a huge home-court advantage.  They are 37-7 at home this year and winning by over 10 PPG on average.  They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.  The Cavs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Lebron and company are in over their heads here in Game 1.  Take Toronto. 

7* 76ers/Celtics Game 1 *Total* Annihilator on OVER 205 

The Key: The 76ers have become an offensive juggernaut.  They have scored 103 or more points in 21 consecutive games now.  They will look to blitz the Celtics in Game 1 of this series to try and take the upper-hand.  They haven’t played in 6 days and will be looking to push the tempo every possession possible.  The Celtics have still managed to be efficient offensively despite their injuries.  They have scored 101 or more points in eight of their last 11 games overall.  The OVER is 11-2 in Boston’s last 13 playoff home games.  The OVER is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 home games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 games when playing on 3 or more days rest.  Take the OVER. 

6* Monday MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Philadelphia Phillies -140 

The Key: The Philadelphia Phillies come in hungry for a win after losing 3 of 4 to the Braves over the weekend.  They won’t be taking the Marlins lightly.  The Marlins are off rare back-to-back wins to improve to just 9-18 this season.  Dan Straily will be making his first start of the season for the Marlins and cannot be expected to pitch past the 5th inning.  Jake Arrieta is 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 4 starts this year, and he’s worth laying this price with today.  Arrieta has never lost to the Marlins, going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them.  Straily sports a 5.35 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts against the Phillies.  Take Philadelphia. 

6* Yankees/Angels ESPN *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles +100 

The Key: The Los Angeles Angels will be hungry for a victory on ESPN tonight after losing the first 2 games of this series to the Yankees.  I think they have the edge on the mound in this game with Tyler Skaggs over C.C. Sabathia, who will face his stiffest challenge yet tonight.  Skaggs is 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 5 starts this year.  The Angels are 6-1 in Skaggs’ last 7 starts.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Jazz/Rockets Game 1 *Total* Annihilator on OVER 206 

The Key: The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between the Jazz and Rockets.  They have averaged 216.7 combined points per game in those 7 meetings.  They have combined for at least 213 points in 6 of those 7 meetings.  I think the price is right to back the OVER in Game 1 of this series based on those recent head-to-head results.  Take the OVER. 

6* National League *CA$H COW* on San Diego Padres -127 

The Key: The San Diego Padres will get back in the win column today behind rookie sensation Joey Lucchesi.  He has gone 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 5 starts this season.  Jason Vargas will be making his season debut for the Mets tonight.  New York is 18-46 in its last 64 games vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start.  The Mets are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win.  Take San Diego. 

7* Bucks/Celtics Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -4.5 

The Key: Home-court advantage has meant everything in this series.  The home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the six games thus far.  I see no reason for that trend to change with everything on the line in this Game 7 tonight.  The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games following an ATS loss.  The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings.  Take Boston. 

7* Thunder/Jazz Game 6 *BAILOUT* on Oklahoma City +6.5 

The Key: The Utah Jazz must be shell-shocked after blowing a 25-point lead in Game 5 when they could have closed out the Thunder.  Now all the pressure is on them, and the Thunder are oozing with confidence after staving off elimination in dramatic fashion.  I think this number is a bit high here getting the Thunder as 6.5-point underdogs given the situation.  They still have the two best players in the series, and Russell Westbrook and Paul George refused to lose by the way they played in the 2nd half of Game 5.  I trust that duo to keep them competitive in Game 6.  The Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Oklahoma City. 

6* Friday MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-113) 

The Key: The Indians lost Game 1 4-5 to the Mariners last night.  They will come back hungry for a victory here in Game 2 and should have no problem winning by multiple runs with ace Corey Kluber on the mound.  Kluber is 3-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 5 starts this season.  Kluber is 3-2 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Seattle.  Erasmo Ramirez will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Mariners.  He gave up 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings at Texas in his first start on April 22nd.  It won’t go much better for him here against the Indians tonight.  The Mariners are 1-6 in Ramirez’s last 7 starts.  Seattle is 1-7 in Ramirez’s last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Indians are 40-14 in their last 54 home games.  Cleveland is 39-15 in Kluber’s last 54 starts.  The Indians are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss.  Take Cleveland on the Run Line. 

7* Celtics/Bucks Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -4 

The Key: The home team has won every game in this series and has covered all but one.  The lone exception was when the Bucks nearly blew a 16-point halftime lead in Game 4 and won by 2 as 6-point favorites.  Now they are only 4-point favorites in Game 6 with their season on the line, and I think this is a generous price for them tonight.  The Bucks have shot better than 52% in 3 of their last 4 games against the Celtics and have clearly figured out how to score on them, especially at home.  Make it 6 straight wins for the home team in this series tonight with a win and cover by the Bucks.  Take Milwaukee. 

6* AL East *CA$H COW* on Baltimore Orioles -117 

The Key: The Baltimore Orioles will be hungry to stop their losing streak tonight.  They should get it done due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.  Dylan Bundy has pitched like an ace, going 1-2 with a 1.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 5 starts with 40 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings.  Chris Archer is 1-1 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in 5 starts for the Rays.  Archer is 5-7 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 16 lifetime starts vs. Baltimore.  Archer has allowed 5 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts against the Orioles. Tampa Bay is 1-9 after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.  The Orioles are 5-1 in Bundy’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rays are 0-4 in Archer’s last 4 road starts vs. Orioles.  Take Baltimore. 

7* Jazz/Thunder Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -3.5 

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder have gone 15-1 in their last 16 home meetings with the Utah Jazz.  They have outscored the Jazz by over 13 PPG in those 16 games.  Now they’re laying only 3.5 points in Game 5 in this do-or-die situation.  I think this is a generous price for the Thunder tonight.  Take Oklahoma City. 

6* Wednesday MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Washington Nationals -151 

The Key: The Washington Nationals have lost 4 straight and will be looking to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Giants today.  Look for them to deliver a win here and stop the bleeding with their ace on the mound.  Max Scherzer continues to be the best starter in baseball.  He is 4-1 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 5 starts this season with 47 strikeouts in 33 innings.  Scherzer is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Giants.  Jeff Samardzija will be making just his second start this season.  He is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA in his last 5 starts against Washington, giving up 20 earned runs in 28 innings.  The Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 after losing the first 2 games of a series.  Washington is 38-15 in Scherzer’s last 53 starts.  The Giants are 1-4 in Samardzija’s last 5 starts.  Take Washington. 

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120) 

The Key: The Miami Marlins are now just 5-17 on the season with 13 of their 17 losses coming by 2 runs or more.  The Dodgers are 7-1 in their last 8 games with 5 of the 7 wins coming by 2 runs or more.  The Dodgers are 53-15 in home games over the last 2 seasons.  The Marlins are 6-22 in their last 28 road games.  Kenta Made has 22 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings pitched this season and clearly has his stuff dialed in.  Dillon Peters is 2-2 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 4 starts for Miami, including 0-2 with a 15.94 ERA and 2.73 WHIP in 2 road starts.  The Dodgers are 16-5 in Maeda’s last 21 home starts, and 7-1 in Maeda’s last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

7* Bucks/Celtics Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -3.5 

The Key: The Boston Celtics could get a nice boost with the possible return of Marcus Smart for Game 5.  He has missed the entire series, but he has been upgraded to questionable, which means there’s a good chance he plays.  The Celtics haven’t needed him to outplay the Bucks thus far in this series, but his energy and defense could be a big boost as this series returns to Boston for the all-important Game 5.  Boston is 11-2 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Celtics are 18-5 ATS revenging all losses this season.  The Bucks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.  The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Bucks.  Take Boston. 

7* Thunder/Jazz Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City +4.5 

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder have their backs against the wall tonight down 2-1 in this series.  Look for them to respond in a big way with an upset victory in Salt Lake City.  Russell Westbrook guaranteed that Ricky Rubio would not have another great game like he did in Game 3 out of nowhere, and I look for a big game from Westbrook in this one.  The Thunder are 35-19 ATS in their last 54 road games revenging a loss of 10 points or more.  Take Oklahoma City. 

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120) 

The Key: Walker Buehler is the top prospect in the Dodgers’ farm system.  He gets his chance at a spot start here in place of Rich Hill (blister).  Buehler is 1-0 with a 2.10 ERA in 3 starts for Triple-A Oklahoma City.  In 13 innings, he had 16 strikeouts and only 4 walks.  He is up against the Marlins, who are 5-16 and hitting .223 and scoring 3.3 RPG as a team this season.  13 of Miami’s 16 losses have come by 2 runs or more.  The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 games with 5 of the 6 wins coming by 2 runs or more.  The Dodgers are 52-15 in home games over the last 2 seasons.  Los Angeles is 40-12 in its last 52 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Miami is 6-21 in its last 27 road games.  The Mariners are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

7* NBA 1st Round Total of the Year on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 218.5 

The Key: The price is right to back the UNDER in this game between the Raptors and Wizards.  The over is 3-0 through the first 3 games, which has forced oddsmakers to set a total higher than it should be for Game 4 knowing that the public will be betting the over again.  The total was only 213.5 exactly for the first two games in this series, and now it’s 218.5 for Game 4, a 5-point adjustment.  As a series goes on teams get more familiar with one another and that favors defense.  Both teams have shot lights out thus far, but the points won’t be as easy to come by in Game 4.  Washington is 10-2 UNDER after scoring 105 points or more in 3 straight games this season.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 a good team that outscores their opponents by 3 or more points per game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 40-13 since 1996.  Take the UNDER. 

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+120) 

The Key: It has been free money this season fading the Marlins on the Run Line.  The Marlins are just 5-15 this season with 12 of their 15 losses coming by 2 runs or more.  Junior Guerra is 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his 2 starts this season and should also shut down this weak Marlins lineup.  Caleb Smith is 0-2 with a 6.90 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in 4 starts for the Marlins this year.  Take Milwaukee on the Run Line. 

6* Saturday MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tampa Bay Rays -130 

The Key: The Tampa Bay Rays are playing well.  They are 3-1 in their last 4 games and have scored a combined 22 runs in those contests.  Blake Snell finished strong last season, had a great spring training, and is off to a great start this season.  Snell is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 4 starts with 26 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings.  Snell is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 2 home starts.  Kyle Gibson is a below-average starter in this league.  And Gibson is 1-4 with a 7.05 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay.  The Twins are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than 40%.  The Rays are 7-1 in Snell’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Tampa Bay. 

7* Blazers/Pelicans Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland +7.5 

The Key: This line suggest that the Portland Trail Blazers will just pack it in after starting down 0-3 in this series.  But I highly doubt that will be the case.  The price is right to back them as 7.5-point dogs in Game 4.  They were only 4-point dogs in Game 3, so this is a 3.5-point adjustment.  It’s enough to warrant a wager on the Blazers here Saturday.  Bets against home favorites who have beaten the spread by 54 or more points in their last 10 games against an opponent that went under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games are 42-13 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Portland. 

7* Celtics/Bucks Game 3 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 205.5 

The Key: The Bucks shot 59.7% while the Celtics shot 53.3% in Game 2.  That’s not going to happen again.  It was a high scoring game and it made the oddsmakers go from setting totals of 199 in Games 1 and 2 to 205.5 in Game 3.  That’s a 6.5-point adjustment and the reason that the price is right now to back the UNDER in Game 3.  The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Milwaukee.  Boston is 11-2 UNDER in Friday road games over the last 2 seasons.  Take the UNDER. 

6* AL West *CA$H COW* on Texas Rangers -115 

The Key: Texas had yesterday off while Seattle lost its 3rd straight game to Houston, which is a nice rest advantage for the Rangers.  The Mariners have scored 2 runs or fewer in 5 consecutive games.  Mike Minor resurrected his career in Kansas City last year, and he’s pitching well thus far in 2018.  He is 1-1 with a 4.59 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 3 starts, including 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 2 home starts.  Minor sports a 1.29 ERA in one lifetime start vs. Seattle.  Felix Hernandez is a shell of his former self.  He gave up 6 runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against Texas.  Hernandez is 2-2 with a 5.49 ERA in 4 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 10.24 ERA in 2 road starts.  Seattle is 3-13 after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span over the last 2 seasons.  The Rangers are 11-3 in their last 14 games following an off day.  Take Texas. 

6* Red Sox/Angels AL *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -105 

The Key: The Los Angeles Angels will be hungry to avoid the sweep by the Red Sox after getting embarrassed in the first two games of this series by a combined score of 19-1.  Look for them to get their bats going against the erratic Eduardo Rodriquez.  He faced the Angels once in his career, and it did not go well as he gave up 7 earned runs and 9 base runners in 1 2/3 innings of an 11-1 loss.  Nick Tropeano will be making his 2nd start this season.  His first was a gem as he pitched 6 2/3 shutout innings in a 7-1 win at Kansas City.  The Red Sox are 1-6 in Rodriquez’s last 7 starts.  The Angels are 8-0 in the last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Los Angeles is 6-0 in its last 6 during game 3 of a series.  The Angels are 7-1 in Tropeano’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Warriors/Spurs Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on San Antonio +4.5 

The Key: This will be a ‘win one for the gipper’ type situation tonight.  Greg Popovich just lost his wife yesterday.  His players will rally around him and put forth a big effort.  On the other side, the Warriors will feel bad for him and won’t be on their ‘A’ game.  It’s really the perfect storm here for the Spurs to get a win and cover.  Golden State is 3-11 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins this season.  San Antonio is 43-21 ATS in its last 64 home games off a blowout loss by 15 points or more.  The Spurs are 33-8 SU & 26-14-1 ATS at home this season.  The Warriors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%.  The Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take San Antonio. 

6* Indians/Twins Puerto Rico *CA$H COW* on Cleveland -118 

The Key: The fans in Puerto Rico are rooting for Francisco Lindor and the Indians in this 2-game set.  That was evident when Lindor hit a homer that broke the game open in a 6-1 victory last night.  Now the Indians have the edge on the mound once again with Carlos Carrasco taking the ball.  Carrasco is 3-0 with a 3.48 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in his 3 starts this season.  He went 3-0 with a 0.92 ERA in his 3 starts against the Twins last season, giving up just 2 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings while striking out 30 batters.  Jose Berrios is just 2-2 with a 5.31 ERA in 4 lifetime starts vs. Cleveland.  Barrios is 0-9 against the money line in night games played away from home over the last 2 seasons.  The Indians are 22-5 in Carrasco’s last 27 starts vs. AL Central teams.  Cleveland is 15-3 in its last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Pacers/Cavs Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -7.5 

The Key: For the first time in his career, Lebron James is down 0-1 in an opening round playoff series.  In fact, it’s the first time ever that he has even trailed in an opening round series.  Look for James to rally the troops tonight and come forth with a big effort after an embarrassing Game 1 showing.  The Cavs trailed by 20 points before James even attempted a shot on Sunday.  He will be much more aggressive from the opening tip in this one, which is when the Cavs are at their best.  Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off 2 or more consecutive home losses, in April games are 37-11 ATS since 1996.  Indiana is 6-14 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Bucks/Celtics TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee +2.5 

The Key: Bets on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 72-26 ATS since 1996.  The Bucks are 15-4 ATS off 2 or more straight road losses over the last 3 years.  Take Milwaukee. 

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Chicago Cubs -119 

The Key: We are getting a great price on the Chicago Cubs at home tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals.  It’s not often you can back them as this small of a home favorite.  The main reason is because Tyler Chatwood is little-known, but he has been great everywhere he has pitched outside of Coors Field.  He is 21-18 with a 3.28 ERA in 321 1/3 innings pitched away from home.  That’s a big reason the Cubs went out and got him this offseason.  Adam Wainwright is far past his prime and just doesn’t have it anymore.  He is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 2 starts this season.  The Cubs are 8-1 in their last 9 meetings with the Cardinals, including 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings.  Take Chicago. 

7* Heat/76ers NBA *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 216 

The Key: Both teams really shot lights out from the 3-point line in Game 1, which led to a shootout and 233 combined points.  But that is unlikely to happen again.  The 76ers made 18 3-pointers and shot 64.3% from beyond the arc, while the Heat made 12 and shot 46.2%.  It was a rare high scoring game in this series.  The previous 4 meetings between the Heat and 76ers saw 207 or fewer combined points.  Miami is 23-12 to the UNDER in road games when revenging a loss over the last 2 seasons.  Philadelphia is 32-12 UNDER in its last 44 home games off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.  Take the UNDER.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on New York Yankees -1.5 (-125) 

The Key: The New York Yankees have a big edge on the mound tonight with Luis Severino over Caleb Smith.  They also have one of the best lineups in baseball, while the Marlins have one of the worst.  The Marlins are just 4-11 this season and 10 of their losses have come by multiple runs.  Severino had a sub-3.00 ERA last season and struck out 230 batters, quickly becoming one of the elite starters in baseball.  Smith has never won a game and has a 6.47 ERA in 32 big league innings.  Take New York on the Run Line. 

7* Jazz/Thunder NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -3.5 

The Key: It’s no secret that the Oklahoma City Thunder have had the Utah Jazz’ number.  The Thunder are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.  But that only tells half the story.  The Jazz simply cannot win in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 14-0 in their last 14 home meetings with the Jazz and are winning by nearly 15 PPG on average.  Take Oklahoma City. 

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Pittsburgh Pirates -145 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Pirates have a big edge on the mound today with Ivan Nova over Jose Urena.  They are also the better team at 10-4 compared to 4-10 for the Marlins, who are probably the worst team in baseball.  Ivan Nova has never lost to the Marlins, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.27 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts against them.  Both of those starts came in 2017 as he pitched 15 shutout innings while allowing only 4 base runners.  Urena is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA in 3 starts this season.  Urena is also 1-1 with a 5.90 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. Pittsburgh.  Nova is 21-7 against the money line in his career when favored by -100 to -150 on the road.  The Pirates are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Marlins are 0-5 in Urena’s last 5 starts.  Miami is 0-5 in Urena’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Pelicans/Blazers NBA *BAILOUT* on Portland -5.5 

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers have been absolutely unbeatable at home down the stretch of the season.  They have gone 21-3 SU & 19-4-1 ATS in their last 24 home games.  They have also upped their game against the better teams in the league.  The Blazers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Portland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on 2 days’ rest as well.  The favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings as well. Take Portland. 

6* Saturday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 7 

The Key: I hit the OVER 6.5 with ease last night in a 15-run outburst between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.  I’m back on the OVER 7 tonight.  These teams have combined for 7 or more runs in 5 of their last 7 meetings.  Taijuan Walker and Rich Hill haven’t had the greatest of success in their careers against their opponents.  Walker is 2-2 with a 6.07 ERA in 6 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles, while Hill is 1-6 with a 4.98 ERA in 11 lifetime starts vs. Arizona.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hill’s last 4 starts against the Diamondbacks.  Take the OVER. 

7* Diamondbacks/Dodgers NL West *BAILOUT* on OVER 6.5 

The Key: This is a very low total for two of the better offenses in the National League.  And it’s not like Zack Greinke and Kenta Maeda are exactly lockdown starters.  Greinke has been roughed up this season with a 5.06 ERA through 2 starts.  He is 4-5 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 12 lifetime starts vs. Arizona.  Maeda is 3-3 with a 4.72 ERA in 11 lifetime starts vs. Arizona.  The Diamondbacks are 16-4 OVER following an off day over the last 2 seasons.  They are 35-15-1 OVER in their last 51 games following an off day dating back further.  The OVER is 7-3 in Maeda’s last 10 starts vs. Arizona.  Take the OVER. 

7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on St. Louis Cardinals -137 

The Key: The St. Louis Cardinals have a big edge on the mound tonight and should make easy work of the 2-9 Cincinnati Reds.  This is a team Michael Wacha certainly looks forward to facing every time out.  Wacha is 8-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 14 lifetime starts vs. Cincinnati.  He won both starts against the Reds last season while limiting them to 2 earned runs in 12 innings.  Sal Romano is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in two starts for the Reds this season.  The Cardinals are 21-7 in Wacha’s last 28 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 40-18 in its last 58 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%.  The Reds are 1-9 in their last 10 home games.  The Cardinals are 11-1 in Wacha’s last 12 starts vs. Reds.  The Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 meetings in Cincinnati.  Take St. Louis. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Washington Wizards -5.5 

The Key: The only chance the Wizards have of moving up from their current 8th position is to win tonight.  And moving up is important because they want the 7th seed and to face the Celtics in the first round.  That is possibly considering the Heat face the Raptors tonight and they need the Heat to lose.  The Magic have mentally checked out and won’t offer much resistance tonight.  Take Washington. 

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Arizona Diamondbacks -113 

The Key: The Arizona Diamondbacks have a big edge on the mound tonight and should be bigger favorites over the San Francisco Giants as a result.  Robbie Ray pitched like a Cy Young contender on the road last season and is off to a great start on the road this year, limiting the Cardinals to one run in 6 innings while striking out 9 in his last turn.  Ray is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA in 8 lifetime starts vs. San Francisco.  Andrew Suarez will be making his major league debut tonight for the Giants, and it won’t go well for him opposite Ray.  The Diamondbacks are 18-5 in Ray’s last 23 starts, including 6-1 in his last 7 road starts.  Take Arizona. 

6* A’s/Dodgers MLB *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -121 

The Key: It’s not often you will get the opportunity to back the Los Angeles Dodgers as only -121 home favorites this season.  Especially against a team as poor as the 4-7 Oakland A’s.  We’ll take advantage of this price here Tuesday.  The A’s may have the better starter on the mound with Manaea over Ryu, but the Dodgers have a significant edge at the plate and in their bullpen.  The A’s are 0-3 against left-handed starters this season and scoring just 1.7 RPG in those games.  Oakland is 21-52 as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons.  The Dodgers are 17-2 in home games after allowing one run or less in a win over a division opponent over the last 3 seasons.  Los Angeles is 50-13 in home games off a win over the last 2 years.  The A’s are 14-51 in their last 65 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Charlotte Hornets +3 

The Key: There are so many good situations favoring the Hornets here tonight.  For starters, this is a home-and-home situation as they want revenge from a 117-123 home loss to the Pacers on Sunday.  Now they get to face them just two days later and in their season finale to boot.  The Pacers are locked in to the 5th seed in the East and will be resting starters, which is the key handicap here.  They won’t care about winning this game at all.  Take Charlotte. 

7* Pelicans/Clippers ESPN *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles +8.5 

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers are stuck in the 10th spot in the West.  They will be drafting in the same spot no matter what as they cannot improve their chances of ping pong balls.  What they can do is try and run the Pelicans’ season, which is precisely what they’ll be motivated to do tonight.  This line has gotten out of hand and has been adjusted way too far in New Orleans’ favor due to the fact that they need the win more.  They are now 8.5-point road favorites tonight.  The Pelicans are 5-14 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.  The Clippers are 24-12 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 106-plus points per game this season.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Monday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Mets/Marlins UNDER 7.5 

The Key: Two aces square off tonight in Noha Syndergaard and Jose Urena in what will be a pitcher’s duel in pitcher-friendly Miami.  Syndergaard is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Miami.  Urena is 3-3 with a 2.92 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts vs. New York.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Syndergaard’s last 21 starts during game 1 of a series.  The UNDER is 10-4-1 in Urena’s last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER. 

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Detroit Pistons -6.5 

The Key: The Detroit Pistons have really turned it on down the stretch.  They are 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They now sit at 38-41 with a chance to get to .500 if they win out, which would be considered a success.  The Grizzlies clearly don’t care about winning games as they are just trying to improve their chances of getting the top draft pick.  They are just 21-58 on the season with the second-worst record in the league.  They have a ton of injuries right now and are basically resting all of their guys, which indicates they are trying to lose.  The Pistons are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Grizzlies are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Detroit. 

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Chicago Cubs -123 

The Key: The Chicago Cubs send Jose Quintana to the mound today against the Milwaukee Brewers.  This has been a great matchup for Quintana in recent years.  Quintana is 2-1 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. Milwaukee, limiting them to just 3 earned runs in 30 innings.  Chase Anderson has allowed 9 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings in his last 3 starts against the Cubs.  Chicago is 27-7 in its last 34 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Cubs are 6-0 in Quintana’s last 6 starts vs. NL Central.  The Cubs are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings in Milwaukee.  Take Chicago. 

7* Blazers/Spurs Western Conference *BAILOUT* on San Antonio -4.5 

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They are in jeopardy of missing the postseason if they were to lose these last few games.  So they’ll be locked in, just as they have been for the last several weeks, especially at home.  The same cannot be said for the Blazers, who are more worried about staying healthy heading into the playoffs since they’ll be the 3rd seed for sure.  The Spurs have handled their business at home, going 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games.  Take San Antonio. 

6* Dodgers/Giants NL West *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -125 

The Key: After a 2-5 start that has featured three 1-run losses, the Los Angeles Dodgers will be focused tonight against the rival San Francisco Giants.  And they send Rich Hill to the mound to get it done.  Hill faced the Giants in his first start on April 1st, leading the Dodgers to a 9-0 victory while firing 6 shutout innings.  Hill is now 6-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 12 lifetime starts vs. San Francisco.  Chris Stratton has never beaten the Dodgers, going 0-2 with a 5.59 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against them.  He gave up 3 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in that start opposite Hill on April 1st.  The Dodgers are 7-1 in Hill’s last 8 starts.  The Dodgers ar e9-0 in Hill’s last 9 Saturday starts.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* MLB Total of the Month on Orioles/Yankees OVER 9

The Key: The Orioles and Yankees always seem to play in slug festers.  The OVER is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings, and 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in New York.  Helping these teams get home runs will be the fact that the wind will be blowing out to left center at 10-15 MPH.  And Kevin Gausman and C.C. Sabathia aren't good enough to contain these potent lineups.  Take the OVER.

7* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Los Angeles Clippers +7 

The Key: The Clippers are holding on to slim playoff hopes.  They probably need to win out to have a chance considering they are 2 games behind both the Pelicans and Timberwolves with 4 games remaining.  But they continue to fight, as evidenced by their comeback victory over the Spurs last game.  And now they are showing good value as 7-point road underdogs to the Utah Jazz tonight.  The Clippers are 11-3 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Los Angeles is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 road games.  Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 home games.  The Jazz are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati Reds +128 

The Key: The price is right to back the Reds tonight.  They have had two days off having last played on Monday due to weather.  They will be ready to go, and so will Homer Bailey, who gave up just 1 earned run in 6 innings for a 1.50 ERA in his opening start against the Nationals.  Bailey is 10-6 with a 3.39 ERA in 21 lifetime starts vs. Pittsburgh.  He faced them twice last year, going 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA while yielding only 2 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Celtics/Raptors ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -7 

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are now in a position where they need to win.  They have been coasting for weeks, going 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  That’s because they have had such a big lead in the East.  But now that lead is back to only 2 games, and they play the team that trails them tonight in the Boston Celtics.  The Raptors will also be out for revenge from a 99-110 loss in Boston on March 31st just a few days ago.  This game simply sets up for the Raptors to come out with one of their best performances of the season given what’s at stake now.  And the Celtics are short-handed and playing the second of a back-to-back after a loss in Milwaukee last night.  Boston is still without Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart, and now backup PG Terry Rozier is battling an ankle injury and his questionable.  Rozier has been the reason the Celtics have stayed competitive down the stretch, but without him at 100% they don’t have much of a shot tonight, especially with the Raptors 100% healthy.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with Boston.  Take Toronto. 

6* National League *CA$H COW* on St. Louis Cardinals -112 

The Key: After blowing a 4-1 lead in the 8th inning last night, the Cardinals will come back hungry for a victory tonight over the Milwaukee Brewers.  And given their big edge on the mound in this one, they should get the job done.  Carlos Martinez is 46-33 with a 3.45 ERA in his career and has quickly become the ace of this staff.  Martinez is 5-4 with a 2.63 ERA in 12 lifetime starts vs. Milwaukee.  Jhoulys Chacin allowed 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 3 1/3 innings in his first start of the season at San Diego, which is a big concern.  Chacin has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-5 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them.  Take St. Louis. 

7* Spurs/Clippers TNT *BAILOUT* on UNDER 207.5 

The Key: With both the Spurs and Clippers having so much to play for tonight, the defensive intensity will be high.  The Spurs are trying to hold off several teams for the 4th seed in the West and a home court in the first round.  The Clippers are 2 games out of the 8th spot and just fighting to get into the playoffs.  The UNDER is 27-10 in Spurs games when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Spurs last 14 games overall.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Indians/Angels American League *BAILOUT* on Cleveland -115 

The Key: Cleveland has a big edge on the mound tonight with Mike Clevinger over JC Ramirez.  Clevinger went 11-4 with a 2.84 ERA in 21 starts last year for the Indians, including 7-2 with a 2.26 ERA in 11 road starts.  Ramirez went 9-10 with a 4.11 ERA in 24 starts for the Angels, including 2-6 with a 4.64 ERA in 12 home starts.  Clevinger has never lost to the Angels, going 2-0 (3-0 money line) with a 3.94 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against them.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Michigan/Villanova NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Villanova -7 

The Key: The Villanova Wildcats have won every one of their NCAA Tournament games by 12 or more points.  They have won by an average of nearly 18 points per game.  Michigan is a good team, but no match for these Wildcats.  The Wolverines lucked their way into the Championship Game by getting a huge break in the schedule, not once having to face a team seeded lower than 6th.  Villanova is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 against Big Ten teams.  Take Villanova. 

6* Giants/Dodgers ESPN *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -1.5 (+110) 

The Key: After losing the first two games of this series 1-0 to the Giants each, the Dodgers got their bats going a bit in a 5-0 victory in Game 3 Saturday.  They have held the Giants to just 2 runs through 3 games, so it’s just carrying over from last year.  The Dodgers have elite pitching, and the Giants can’t hit a lick.  Now it’s Rich Hill’s turn to dominate.  He went 12-8 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 29 starts last year, including 7-5 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 18 home starts.  Chris Stratton went 1-3 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 5 road starts last year for the Giants.  Stratton is 0-1 with a 6.24 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. L.A., both of which came last season.  Hill is 5-2 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 11 lifetime starts vs. San Francisco.  He went 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in 3 starts against the Giants last year.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 9 consecutive starts against San Francisco.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

7* Rockets/Spurs ABC *HEAVY HITTER* on San Antonio +2.5 

The Key: The Spurs have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.  After looking like they might not make the playoffs a few weeks ago, the Spurs now sit in 4th place in the Western Conference just a half-game up on 5th place.  They want to snag the No. 4 seed to assure home-court advantage in the first round.  The Houston Rockets have nothing to play for as they have already locked up the No. 1 seed.  They played like it last time out when they needed to come back from 20-plus points down to beat Phoenix 104-103 on a buzzer-beater from Gerald Green as 17.5-point home favorites.  They are starting to rest their players and won’t show up at all these final two weeks.  Motivationally, this is a money spot to back the Spurs.  The Spurs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take San Antonio. 

6* Saturday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Rockies/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 

The Key: The Rockies and Diamondbacks have certainly gotten the bats going in this series thus far.  They combined for 10 runs in Game 1 and 17 runs in Game 2.  Once again, the oddsmakers have set the number too low with this 8.5-run total.  Zach Greinke is working his way back from a groin injury and isn’t 100%.  His fastball clocked in around 85 MPH in the spring.  German Marquez has been torched by the Diamondbacks.  He is 0-3 with a 4.59 ERA in 6 lifetime starts against them, giving up 8 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings in his final 2 starts against them last year.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

7* Loyola/Michigan Final Four *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 130 

The Key: Loyola and Michigan are two of the best defensive teams in the entire country.  It’s how they got this far, and it’s the reason I like the UNDER 130 points in their Final Four matchup.  Loyola allows just 62.4 PPG and 41.4% shooting.  Michigan allows just 63.1 PPG and 42.4% shooting.  Points will be hard to come by in this matchup, especially with how well both teams defend the 3-pointer.  Loyola is 8-1 UNDER when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days this season.  Loyola is 10-1 UNDER vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game after 15+ games this season.  Take the UNDER.

7* Bucks/Lakers NBA *BAILOUT* on UNDER 220.5 

The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers will be without their top two point guards for this game against Milwaukee.  Both Isaiah Thomas and Lonzo Ball are out.  That leaves the underwhelming Alex Caruso to run the point.  They won’t be looking to push the tempo, and neither will the Bucks, who will still be tired in this back-to-back situation after winning in Golden State last night.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Lakers last 6 home games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Friday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Rockies/Diamondbacks OVER 8 

The Key: It’s shocking the books have set this total so low in a game between two of the better offenses in the National League inside a hitter’s park in Arizona.  And both starting pitcher have struggled against the opposition in year’s past.  Tyler Anderson sports a 6.00 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. Arizona.  Robbie Ray sports a 5.21 ERA and 1.614 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts vs. Colorado.  Ray is 11-2 OVER in home games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.  The OVER is 6-0 in Diamondbacks last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 20-6-1 in Ray’s last 27 home starts.  Take the OVER. 

7* Bucks/Warriors TNT *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 215.5 

The Key: The injuries to Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have forced the Warriors to play a different brand of basketball, one that relies more on defense.  The Warriors have been held to 93 or fewer points in 4 of their last 6 games overall.  But their defense has been solid as they have held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 94 points or fewer.  The Bucks and Warriors played back in January with the Warriors winning 108-94 for just 202 combined points with a total set of 221.5.  And that was back when the Warriors were healthy. This game will be more of a defensive battle than the oddsmakers are anticipating.  The Warriors are 22-5 UNDER In March games over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Bucks last 11 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Rockies/Diamondbacks MLB *BAILOUT* on Arizona -107 

The Key: We are getting the Arizona Diamondbacks at a cheap price at home on Opening Night.  Patrick Corbin is 12-4 against the money line in his 16 lifetime starts against Colorado.  In his last 2 starts against them, he has allowed just 2 earned runs and 11 base runners in 12 innings.  Jon Gray is 2-3 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his 6 lifetime starts vs. Arizona.  Corbin went 9-4 with a 3.15 ERA in 17 home starts last year.  Take Arizona. 

7* NBA *Blowout* Game of the Month on Minnesota Timberwolves -11.5 

The Key: Minnesota is only 1.5 games ahead of the Clippers for the 8th spot in the West.  They will be hyper-focused the rest of the way, and they will be in sour moods coming off their upset home loss to Memphis last time out.  I expect a big effort from the Timberwolves at home tonight against the Hawks, who are just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games, and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.  The Hawks are clearly tanking and aren’t hiding it.  They are without 3 of their best players tonight in Dennis Schroder, Malcolm Delaney and Kent Bazemore.  They stand little chance of even being competitive.  Atlanta is 3-11 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss.  The Timberwolves are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games.  The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with Atlanta.  Take Minnesota. 

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Denver Nuggets +8.5 

The Key: It’s do or die for the Denver Nuggets right now.  They are 1.5 games behind the 8th place Minnesota Timberwolves with just 8 games remaining.  They are in must-win mode from here on out.  After a poor second half last night against the 76ers, look for the Nuggets to come back determined tonight.  They had two days off prior to that game so they won’t be as fatigued as a team usually is on a back-to-back.  Plus, their starters got to rest down the stretch.  The Raptors clearly haven’t been on top of their games of late and are just ready for the playoffs to get here as they basically have the No. 1 seed locked up.  The Raptors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Nuggets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings with the Raptors, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Toronto.  Take Denver. 

7* Nuggets/76ers NBA TV *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver Nuggets +5.5 

The Key: It’s do or die for the Denver Nuggets right now.  They are 1.5 games back of the 8th place Utah Jazz with nine games remaining.  They are in must-win mode from here on out.  The Philadelphia 76ers just completed Step 1 of The Process by clinching a playoff spot.  I can’t help but think they will be flat tonight after accomplishing that goal last time out.  The Nuggets come in rested with two days off having last played on Friday.  Denver is 15-6 ATS revenging a same season loss this season.  The Nuggets are 53-35 ATS int heir last 88 games as a road underdog.  The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take Denver. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +6.5 

The Key: The Celtics are playing without 3 starters right now in Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown.  That’s why they cannot be 6.5-point favorites at Sacramento tonight.  This is a Kings team that is very young and is not just playing out the string.  That’s evident by the fact that the Kings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have had 2 days off since beating the Hawks 105-90 on Thursday, so they’ll be rested coming into this game with the Celtics.  Sacramento is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Kings are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of better than 60%.  The Kings are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference teams.  Take Sacramento. 

7* Duke/Kansas Elite 8 *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas +3.5 

The Key: Kansas should not be an underdog to Duke in the Elite 8.  The Jayhawks have the home-court edge with this game being played in Omaha.  And they are playing their best basketball of the season.  The Jayhawks are 11-1 in their last 12 games overall.  Azubuike is healthy and a double-double machine.  And the Jayhawks are hitting on all cylinders offensively.  The Blue Devils have had too easy of a path to get here with wins over Iona, Rhode Island and Syracuse.  Kansas is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Duke.  Take Kansas. 

7* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Michigan -4.5 

The Key: The Michigan Wolverines are on fire.  They are 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.  I think the fact that Florida State has upset two straight teams in Xavier and Gonzaga has them getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  Both Xavier and Gonzaga came into the tournament overrated in my opinion.  Michigan remains severely underrated.  The Wolverines should be more than 4.5-point favorites against this inexperienced FSU team that isn’t ready for this big of a stage with a trip to the Final Four on the line.  Michigan’s suffocating defense will be the difference, and they are obviously feeling it offensively right now after hanging 99 points on Texas A&M on Thursday.  Take Michigan. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Memphis Grizzlies +6 

The Key: The Memphis Grizzlies will show some pride tonight.  They were just beaten by 61 points by the Hornets and blasted in the media for tanking.  At least for one night, they will show up, so we’ll take all these points and run with them.  The Grizzlies are almost fully healthy right now outside Mike Conley, and they are good enough to beat the Lakers.  The Lakers aren’t exactly lighting it up, either.  They have lost 4 straight and are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings with Los Angeles.  Take Memphis. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat +6.5 

The Key: The Miami Heat have played their best basketball on the road this season.  They are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 road games dating back to last year.  Miami is also 12-3-2 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  The Heat are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  The Thunder are 5-20 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.  Take Miami. 

7* WVU/Villanova Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Villanova -5 

The Key: The Villanova Wildcats are the best team in the country.  They don’t have any weaknesses.  They will exploit the one weakness of West Virginia, which is their half court defense.  The Wildcats won’t be phased by WVU’s press, especially with extra time to prepare for it.  And they will take advantage of their opportunities when the Mountaineers are out of position going for too many steals.  This is a Villanova team that doesn’t get enough credit for their offensive efficiency.  They score 86.9 PPG and shoot 50.3% from the field, including 40.2% from 3-point range this season.  On the other end, Villanova is elite defensively, and WVU struggles shooting the 3-ball.  The Wildcats don’t give up anything easy.  Villanova is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 50-21-1 ATS in their last 72 non-conference games.  Take Villanova. 

7* Loyola/Nevada Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Loyola-Chicago +1.5 

The Key: Loyola is the more complete team in this matchup.  They are by far the superior defensive team.  I love the way they share the basketball on offense and have 3-point snipers all over the court.  This has allowed them to upset both Miami and Tennessee to get here.  And now they actually take a step down in class against Nevada, yet are still underdogs.  Their magical run will continue with a win tonight.  Loyola is 9-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of 2 straight games this season.  Take Loyola-Chicago. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Memphis Grizzlies +10 

The Key: The Hornets used a lot of energy coming back from a 20-plus point deficit against the Nets last night.  They closed the game on an 18-2 run to win 111-105.  I know because I had the Nets, and it was one of my most painful losses of the season.  So now they are a tired team playing the second of a back-to-back and being asked to lay double-digits against Memphis tonight.  Memphis is also on a back-to-back, but they were blown out in Philadelphia last night and were able to spread their minutes around more to bench players.  I think the Grizzlies come back tonight and play a great game to stay within this number.  Memphis is 30-14 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.  The Hornets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference teams.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Memphis. 

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Brooklyn Nets +2 

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets have won back-to-back games over the Mavs and Grizzlies.  They also played the 76ers very tough in a 4-point road loss as 8.5-point dogs the game prior.  They recently beat these same Hornets 125-111 on the road on March 8th.  I don’t like the mindset of the Hornets right now as they have recently been eliminated from the playoffs thanks to their 2-8 stretch over their last 10 games.  They lost by 14 to the 76ers and by 23 to the Knicks in their last two games, so they aren’t showing any fight.  And they’re without one of their best players in Nic Batum right now, while the Nets are almost fully healthy.  The Hornets are 1-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in four straight games this season.  Charlotte is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  The Nets are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take Brooklyn. 

7* Thunder/Celtics TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -4.5 

The Key: With the playoffs approaching, the Oklahoma City Thunder are hitting their stride.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall with all six wins coming by 5 points or more.  They have moved into the No. 4 spot in the West and are in line to get a first-round home series if they finish strong.  They will be able to take advantage of a Boston Celtics team that has been hit hard by injuries lately.  The Celtics are now playing without 3 starters in Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown.  They have gone just 1-3 in their last 4 games with their only win coming over the Magic.  They are coming off a 19-point road loss at New Orleans.  Bets against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after scoring 90 points or less against opponent that has scored 105-plus points in 4 or more consecutive games are 39-14 ATS since 1996.  The Thunder have topped 100 points in 11 consecutive games during a 9-2 run coming in.  Take Oklahoma City. 

7* Western Kentucky/USC NIT *BAILOUT* on Western Kentucky +5 

The Key: USC is still bummed from being left out of the NCAA Tournament.  That was evident in their NIT opener when they went through the motions and were fortunate to escape with a 103-98 home win over UNC-Asheville despite being 13.5-point favorites.  Of course it doesn’t help that they are without their two best players in Bennie Boatwright (injury) and Cimenzie Metu, who has decided to skip the NIT to focus on the NBA Draft.  Western Kentucky will likely pull the upset tonight.  The Hilltoppers blitzed Boston College 79-62 at home in their NIT opener and are clearly happy to be here.  The Hilltoppers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  Western Kentucky is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of better than 60%.  Take Western Kentucky.