Sports Picks & Predictions

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Marshall -2.5

The Key: Dan D'Antoni has his best team yet as he enters year 3 at Marshall.  They managed a 17-16 record last season and should be even better in 2016-17.  That's because they return 4 starters in Stevie Browning (12.8 PPG), Ryan Taylor (14.2 PPG), Jone Elmore (15.2 PPG) and Austin Loop (9.4 PPG).  Morehead State only has 2 starters back this year and loses three key players in Corban Collins (11.0 PPG), Brent Arrington (10.2 PPG) and Anthony Elechi (8.3 PPG).  I like the Thundering Herd to cover this small number and beat Morehead State tonight.  The Thundering Herd are 9-1 ATS in home games off a win over the last 3 seasons.  Marshall is 8-1 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.  Take Marshall.

6* Bulls/Blazers Non-Conference *BAILOUT* on Portland -3

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are 7-4 this season with two of their losses coming to the Los Angeles Clippers, who are the best team in the NBA right now.  The Blazers are 5-1 in their last 6 games overall.  But they have failed to cover the spread in 4 straight, which has them undervalued right now as only 3-point favorites over the Chicago Bulls.  With wins and covers in 3 of their last 4 games against the Magic, Heat and Wizards, the Bulls come into this game overvalued.  I think the Blazers are the far superior team on a neutral court, and home-court advantage should be worth more than 3 points for them here.  This is a discount.  Take Portland.

6* Kansas/Duke ESPN National TV *Annihilator* on Kansas +2

The Key: The Duke Blue Devils are title favorites for good reason.  However, they aren't at full strength right now or even close to it as they are basically letting 6 players play all their minutes.  That's because they are without three McDonald's All-Americans in Jayson Tatum, Henry Giles and Marques Bolden.  Because of these losses, Kansas is actually the better team right now and shouldn't be underdogs.  The Jayhawks will also be motivated to avoid opening 0-2 after losing to Indiana in overtime in their opener.  The Blue Devils are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. The Jayhawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Kansas is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games.  The Jayhawks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a loss.  Take Kansas.

7* Ohio/CMU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan PK

The Key: The Central Michigan Chippewas need a win to get bowl eligible as they sit at 5-5 on the season.  They will be motivated here at home.  I question the motivation of the Ohio Bobcats, who can lose tonight and still win the MAC East with a home win over Akron next week.  The Bobcats have played one of the easiest schedules in the country up to this point and are extremely overrated.  Central Michigan went on the road and beat Oklahoma State.  Ohio is coming off 3 straight ATS covers, while CMU is coming off 3 straight ATS losses.  That has put the value squarely on the home team in this contest tonight.  Take Central Michigan.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Auburn -7

The Key: The Auburn Tigers are in Year 3 under Bruce Pearl and primed for their best season yet.  They are revitalized with an influx of new, talented players joining key contributors from an injury-riddled 2015-16 campaign.  Pearl has done an excellent job in recruiting, and he now has his deepest, most talented team yet.  The Tigers beat North Florida 83-66 in their opener while forcing 28 turnovers.  This seems like a cheap price to back them at home against overmatched Georgia State as only 7-point favorites.  Georgia State is 2-12 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.  The Panthers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.  Georgia State is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 vs. SEC opponents.  The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Sun Belt foes.  Take Auburn.

7* MNF Game of the Year on Cincinnati Bengals PK

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off their bye week after tying the Washington Redskins in London.  They are now as healthy as they have been at any point this season.  Tyler Eiffert returned against the Redskins, and he and AJ Green both had over 100 yards receiving.  This Bengals' offense should thrive now with Eiffert back in the fold because they already have a strong running game.  The Giants cannot say the same as they average just 68 rushing yards per game.  The Giants have been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games.  Their 3-game winning streak comes to an end tonight against the superior Bengals.  Cincinnati is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Take Cincinnati.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit Pistons -2.5

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder are a tired team right now.  They have lost 3 straight games coming in and now will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 12 days.  I don't expect a very good effort from them here tonight off their 117-119 home loss to the Magic last night.  The Pistons are 4-0 at home this season.  Not only are they winning, they are dominating, beating opponents by over 17 points per game.  The Pistons are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games as a home favorite.  Take Detroit.

6* Sunday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on UTSA +17.5

The Key: The UTSA Road Runners really impressed me in their opener.  They only lost 66-69 at Fresno State as 15-point dogs, covering the spread by 12 points.  They outrebounded the Bulldogs by 25 boards and only lost the game because they committed 20 turnovers.  This is a team that returned 4 starters from last year and hired Steve Henson, Lon Kruger's right-hand man at Oklahoma.  Oregon State is a team that lost 4 key players from last year, including star PG Gary Payton II, who averaged 16 points and 7.8 boards last year.  I wasn't impressed with Oregon State's 78-58 home win over Prairie View A&M in the opener as the Beavers shot just 41.3% and committed 20 turnovers.  That's really bad when you consider they had only 46 shot attempts.  Take UTSA.

6* Cowboys/Steelers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh -3

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers will be playing with a sense of urgency today.  They have lost 3 straight games coming in, and Ben Roethlisberger hasn't been healthy for any of them.  But now Roethlisberger should be closer to full strength at today against the Dallas Cowboys in a game the Steelers are looking at like a must-win.  After all, the Steelers are 7-0 in Roethlisberger's last 7 home starts.  The Cowboys are 7-0-1 ATS this season and getting too much respect from oddsmakers now.  It's time to fade them.  Mike Tomlin is 9-1 ATS off 3 or more straight ATS losses as the coach of the Steelers.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Green Bay Packers -2.5

The Key: The Packers are just .500 at this late in the season for the first time since Aaron Rodgers' rookie year.  Off two straight losses, it's clear that the Packers will be playing with a sense of urgency.  Tennessee's Nissan Stadium will be turned into Lambeau Field South today as the Titans just have no home-field advantage at all.  The only team they can beat at home is the Jaguars over the past couple seasons.  Oh yeah, they also beat the winless Browns 28-26 earlier this season at home.  The Titans are 12-36-3 ATS in their last 51 games overall and 15-34-3 ATS in their last 52 home games.  Tennessee is 4-15 ATS in home games over the past 3 seasons alone, losing by an average of 8.1 points per game.  The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Green Bay.

6* NFC *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia Eagles +1.5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles will be playing with a sense of urgency today.  After their 3-0 start, they have lost 4 of their last 5 games by a touchdown or less, and all 4 losses were on the road.  So they have had a chance to win every game they've played this season, but they have just come up short in 50/50 games.  At home though, there has been no such thing as a 50/50 game for the Eagles.  They have absolutely dominated at home this season, going 3-0 while winning by an average of 20.3 points per game.  They are holding opponents to just 7.7 points per game in their 3 home contests, which includes a 34-3 win over the Steelers.  Look for the Eagles to right the ship today.  The home team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings.  Take Philadelphia.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Phoenix Suns -4.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns have been competitive in almost every game this season.  They have won three of their last five overall and were competitive in the other two in road losses to the Lakers and Blazers.  The Brooklyn Nets have lost three of their last five with blowout losses to Chicago by 30 and New York by 14.  All three of the Nets' wins this season have come at home, but they are 0-3 on the road.  I look for the supremely talented Suns to put them away early and win this one going away.  The Nets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games.  The Suns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take Phoenix.

6* USC/Washington FOX National TV *Annihilator on Washington -7.5

The Key: Washington is easily one of the Top 5 toughest places to play in the country.  I look for the unbeaten Huskies to feed off of their home crowd and improve to 10-0 with a blowout win over USC this weekend.  Everyone is making a big deal about USC winning 5 straight games coming in, but 4 of those came at home and they were mostly against soft competition.  I like using common opponents to compare team.  USC is 3-2 while winning by 11.8 points per game against common opponents of Washington this season.  Washington is 5-0 against those 5 and winning by 28.0 points per game.  There's no doubt in my mind that the Huskies are by far the superior team, and those numbers prove that.  USC is 0-6 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, losing by 19.3 points per game.  USC is 0-7 ATS in road games after winning 4 or 5 of its last 6 games coming in over the last 3 seasons.  Take Washington.

6* Stanford/Oregon Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford -3

The Key: The Oregon Ducks are just 3-6 SU & 1-7-1 ATS this season, but they still continue to get too much respect from the books here as only 3-point underdogs to the Stanford Cardinal.  Stanford is by far the superior team.  While the slight edge on offense goes to Oregon, the massive edge on defense goes to Stanford.  The Cardinal have held their last four opponents to an average of 11.2 points per game.  Oregon is allowing 49.0 points and 601.5 yards per game in conference play this season.  The Ducks give up 239 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry.  Christian McCaffrey is primed for perhaps the biggest game of his career.  The Cardinal have rushed for 301 yards per game in their last two contests.  Stanford wants revenge from a 36-38 home loss to Oregon last season that likely cost the Cardinal a spot in the four-team playoff.  They would love nothing more than to hand Oregon its 7th loss and assure that the Ducks won't be going to a bowl game.  The Cardinal are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Ducks are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Take Stanford.

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Wyoming -7.5

The Key: Wyoming is 5-0 in conference play with a win over Boise State to boot.  With wins in 2 of their final 3 games, the Cowboys will be going to the conference championship game.  But they still have tough games coming up at home against San Diego State and on the road at New Mexico.  They really need to win this game against UNLV if they want to reach their goals.  I look for them to continue playing well against the Rebels here.  UNLV has lost 3 of its last 4 with its only win coming against Hawaii, and I don't expect it to put up much of a fight here. That includes a 23-42 home loss to Colorado State, which is the same team Wyoming beat 38-17 on the road earlier this season.  UNLV is a one-dimensional running team that only completes 45.2% of its passes for 163 yards per game.  Wyoming has been great against the run, giving up just 139 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry.  Bets on favorites on of 3.5 to 10 points after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 25-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Wyoming.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers -6.5

The Key: The Sacramento Kings are in the midst of the toughest early schedule in the NBA.  They are being asked to play an 11th game in 17 days to open the season tonight.  This will be their 5th game in 7 days and the 2nd of a back-to-back after a home loss to the Lakers last night.  The Blazers have owned the Kings, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last 6 home meetings while winning 5 times by at least 11 points.  Given the tough spot for the Kings, another blowout win for the Blazers can be expected tonight.  Take Portland.

7* BC/FSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Boston College +20.5

The Key: The Florida State Seminoles have already suffered 3 losses this season and are merely playing for bowl positioning.  They're not concerned at all about this game against Boston College.  They were flat last week in their 24-20 win over NC State, and I don't see them putting forth a much better effort here.  Keep in mind that Boston College also beat NC State 21-14 on the road as 14-point dogs two weeks ago.  Speaking of 14, the Eagles haven't lost by more than 14 points to Florida State in any of the past 3 meetings.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last 3 seasons.  After failing to cover in a blowout loss to Louisville last week, the Eagles are undervalued here.  Take Boston College.

6* Michigan State/Arizona ESPN National TV *Annihilator* on Arizona +1

The Key: Arizona has four new starters, including two true freshman starters in guard Rawle Alkins and power forward Lauri Markkanen, a 3-point shooter and NBA lottery prospect who was the team's leading scorer with 21 points in its final exhibition game against Chico State on Sunday.  Sophomore post player Chance Comanche should be good to go after serving a suspension due to academics. Comanche (6-11) joins a front line that includes 7-footer Markkanen, 7-foot center Dusan Ristic and 6-9 forward Keanu Pinder, a junior college transfer.  Michigan State also replaces 4 starters from last season, and they'll be without big men Ben Carter and Gavin Schilling due to knee injuries.  That leaves Nick Ward, at 6-8, as the team's tallest player tonight.  The Wildcats should own the Spartans on the glass in this game, which will be the key to victory.  Take Arizona.

7* Browns/Ravens AFC North Game of the Month on Cleveland +8

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens can't be trusted to lay this kind of weight.  Not when they haven't blown anyone out over the past two seasons.  The Ravens haven't won a game by more than 8 points in any of their last 24 games.  They have been the kings of close games as 22 of those 24 games were decided by 8 points or fewer.  Plus, the Ravens are coming off a huge win over the rival Steelers on Sunday, so they could come out flat here against the Browns.  The Browns have at least been competitive in the majority of their games, and they will be again here tonight against the offensively-challenged Ravens.  The Ravens are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.  The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to Baltimore.  Take Cleveland.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee Bucks -5.5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks have won 3 of their last 4 games coming in.  They throttled the Pacers 125-107 and the Kings 117-91 in the process.  Their only loss came on the road in overtime at Dallas while playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the Bucks have had the last 3 days off to get ready for the Pelicans, who they already beat 117-113 on the road just over a week ago.  The Pelicans are a mess as they are 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS this season.  They should be much bigger underdogs here to the Bucks on the road.  The Pelicans are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 vs. Eastern Conference.  Take Milwaukee.

6* UNC/Duke ESPN National TV *Annihilator* on North Carolina -11

The Key: The North Carolina Tar Heels are 5-1 in conference play with their only loss coming to Virginia Tech in the slop left over by Hurricane Matthew.  They have a great chance to win the Coastal for a second consecutive season.  They have won their last 3 games in impressive fashion with a 7-point win at Miami, a 21-point win at Virginia, and a 28-point home win over Georgia Tech.  I look for this blowout streak to continue as they put Duke away early.  The Tar Heels have blown out the Blue Devils each of the last 2 seasons.  They won 45-20 on the road in 2014 and 66-31 at home in 2015.  Bets against home teams who have lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against opponents who have won 3 of their last 4 games are 34-7 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take North Carolina.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Los Angeles Clippers -9.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are in a very tough situation here.  They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They used up a lot of energy in a 124-121 home win over the Phoenix Suns last night as Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum combined for 71 points.  The Clippers are 6-1 this season and outscoring teams by 14.9 points per game.  They have been the best team in the NBA thus far in point differential.  And they want revenge on the Blazers after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them last year once Chris Paul and Blake Griffin were lost to injury.  Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  That includes 20 and 21-points wins over the Blazers in Game 1 and 2 of the playoffs last year when they were healthy.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Bowling Green/Akron MAC *CA$H COW* on Akron -10.5

The Key: One thing is certain, and that is the fact that the Akron Zips will show up to play tonight.  It is Senior Night for the Zips, and sitting at 5-5 on the season, they need another win to get bowl eligible.  The same cannot be said for Bowling Green, which at 1-8 on the season, may not show up tonight.  The Falcons lost by 14 at home to Miami Ohio and by 25 on the road to Northern Illinois in their last two games.  Another double-digit blowout loss can be expected here against the Zips.  Bowling Green is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Zips are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Akron.

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Phoenix Suns +7.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns, with their terrific guard trio of Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker and Brandon Knight, match up very well with the Portland Trail Blazers and their superb guard duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.  That probably helps to explain why the Suns have had so much success against the Blazers recently.  Dating back to last season, the Suns have won 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Blazers outright.  Bets on road underdogs after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 24-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  I think the Suns are catching too many points tonight.  Take Phoenix.

6* EMU/Ball State MAC *CA$H COW* on Eastern Michigan PK

The Key: Eastern Michigan can get bowl eligible with a win tonight over Ball State, which is huge for a program that hasn't played in the postseason since 1987.  The Eagles are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They easily covered against both Toledo and Western Michigan in competitive games, and playing those two teams tough is no small feat.  Ball State just lost to Western Michigan 20-52 last week, while EMU only lost 31-45 on the road to WMU a couple weeks ago.  EMU QB Brogan Roback has thrown 10 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions this season as the Eagles are averaging 282 passing yards per game.  Ball State gives up 296 passing yards per game, so Roback should have a big day.  The Eagles only give up 3.9 yards per carry, and the Cardinals rely heavily on the run as they run it 46 times per game.  Eastern Michigan is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games, while Ball State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games.  Take Eastern Michigan.

7* Bills/Seahawks MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo +6.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bills are 4-4 this season and catching too many points here against the Seattle Seahawks.  They have only lost one game by more than 6 points this season, and that was last week against the New England Patriots, who just cannot be stopped right now.  But the Bills get back LeSean McCoy this week and add in Percy Harvin.  Seattle is 4-2-1 this season, but two of its wins came by exactly 2 points at home against the Dolphins and Falcons.  The Seahawks are broken offensively.  They rank 29th in points per game (18.7) and 23rd in total offense.  Their defense is missing DE Martellus Bennett and S Kam Chancellor as well.  The Bills are averaging 29.3 points per game in their last 7 games since changing offensive coordinators.  Buffalo is 6-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive losses over the past 3 seasons, coming back to win by 14.6 points per game.  Take Buffalo.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Oklahoma City Thunder -5

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder aren't missing Kevin Durant too much.  They are 5-1 this season with their only loss coming to Durant's Warriors on the road.  They also have a road win over the Clippers, and they are 3-0 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 13.4 points per game.  The Miami Heat are clearly taking a step back this season as their roster is one of the worst in the NBA now.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 with all 3 losses coming by at least 6 points.  The Thunder have won their last 2 home meetings with the Heat by 25 and 18 points.  Take Oklahoma City.

6* Sunday NFL *TOTAL* Annihilator on Titans/Chargers UNDER 47.5

The Key: The Titans have gone over the total in five straight games, while the Chargers have gone over the total in four of their last five games.  Because of these recent over streaks, I think there is a ton of value with the UNDER this week as the Titans face the Chargers.  Both of these teams like to control time of possession and they have this season.  The Titans have done it with their running game, while the Chargers have done it with their short passing game.  Both teams have been stout against the run, so it's going to be hard to get points in the red zone.  The Titans only give up 82 rushing yards per game while the Chargers allow just 86 per game.  The Chargers are 11-2 UNDER in home games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons.  Take the UNDER.

6* Panthers/Rams NFC *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3

The Key: The Carolina Panthers are poised to make a run.  They opened the season 1-5 but were clearly better than their record as they lost a few games they obviously shouldn't have.  But then they had their bye week, and they returned with a dominant 30-20 home win over the Cardinals.  Now they go on the road against a Los Angeles Rams team that simply isn't very good.  The Rams have lost three straight coming in.  Their offense is one of the worst in the NFL as they average just 17.1 points and 308 yards per game.  The Panthers average 27.3 points and 388 yards per game, and some of that has even been without Cam Newton due to injury.  But they just put up 30 points on a very good Arizona defense last week and even had to settle for three field goals.  Newton and Jonathan Stewart are back now and rushed for 141 yards on Arizona last week.  The Rams love to run the ball with Todd Gurley, but the Panthers only give up 80 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Carolina.

7* NFC East Game of the Year on New York Giants -3

The Key: The New York Giants are showing great value as 3-point favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles today.  They should be much bigger favorites here.  They enter on a 2-game winning streak and are coming off their bye week to get healthy.  The Eagles have lost 3 of their last 4 and just aren't playing well right now.  They are also coming off an overtime game against the Cowboys, and it's going to be tough to bounce back from that against a Giants team off their bye.  The Giants are 2-1 at home this season and outgaining teams by 76 yards per game.  The Eagles are 1-3 on the road and getting outgained by 81 yards per game.  This is a very short price for the Giants at home given the situation.  Take New York.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Houston Rockets +3

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after playing a road game against the Washington Wizards last night.  Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets come in on 2 days' rest and chomping the bit to hit the court.  The Rockets' up-tempo style will test the legs of the Hawks as they have to be tired right now.  The Rockets are scoring 110.2 points per game on 47.2% shooting.  Houston is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  Take Houston.

6* Oregon/USC ESPN National TV *Annihilator* on Oregon +17

The Key: The USC Trojans have won four in a row, but now they're starting to get a little too much love from oddsmakers.  It's time to sell on them and buy on the Oregon Ducks, who are just 1-6-1 ATS this season, thus they are getting to love from the betting public.  But the Ducks are coming off their best performance of the season in a 54-35 win over Arizona State behind 734 yards of total offense.  They have found their QB of the future in freshman Justin Herbert, who has thrown for 747 yards and 10 touchdowns against 1 interception in the last two games alone. Oregon is 8-0 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.  USC is 0-6 ATS after winning 5 or 6 of its last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Ducks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 November games.  The Trojans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Take Oregon.

7* SEC Game of the Year on Arkansas +4

The Key: The Arkansas Razorbacks are fresh off their bye week.  They needed it after playing the likes of Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn in consecutive weeks.  Quarterback Austin Allen is now healthy and ready to lead his troops at home against 11th-ranked Florida.  The Gators may be the most overrated team in their country because their 6-1 start has come against a very easy schedule.  They best team they've played is Tennessee, and they lost 38-28 on the road.  They also barely beat Vanderbilt 13-6 in their other true road game.  The Razorbacks are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games off a loss by 21 points or more.  The Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a cover against the spread.  The wrong team is favored in this game.  Take Arkansas.

6* ACC Game of the Week on Wake Forest -3

The Key: The Wake Forest Demon Deacons had a chance to become bowl eligible last week.  They couldn't do it as they lost to a pesky Army team.  I expect them to take advantage of this opportunity this week at home against Virginia as they'll be extremely motivated to do so.  And Virginia is getting way too much respect from the books for playing Louisville tough last week.  That was a huge effort, but now I expect them to suffer a hangover after falling just short.  They won't get up to play Wake Forest this week.  The Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.  The Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Wake Forest.

7* SJSU/Boise State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Jose State +30

The Key: The Boise State Broncos just had their dreams crushed of playing in the Cotton Bowl.  They lost 28-30 at Wyoming last week as 14.5-point underdogs.  I expect them to come out flat tonight against the San Jose Spartans, which is going to make it extremely difficult to cover this 30-point spread.  The Broncos have been one of the worst bets in college football, yet they still keep getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers.   They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They only won by 1 at home over BYU, by 5 at home over Colorado State, by 11 at home over Utah State and by 3 at home over Washington State in their four home games, where they've gone 0-4 ATS.  The Spartans come in with confidence after winning 2 of their last 3 games while not committing a single turnover in that stretch, which has made the biggest difference.  The Broncos are 0-7 ATS vs. teams who give up 8 or more yards per pass attempt over the last 3 seasons.  They are only beating these teams by 4.8 points per game.  Take San Jose State.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on San Antonio Spurs -4.5

The Key: I really like this spot for the San Antonio Spurs.  It's a home and home situation for them after losing to the Jazz at home on Tuesday night.  Now they've had two days off and will get their shot at revenge against the Jazz here on the road.  The Jazz don't have that same luxury as they came back and played the Mavs on Wednesday, so this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.  And the Jazz are short-handed right now playing without Alec Burks, Gordon Hayward and Boris Diaw.  The Spurs have still won 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Jazz with 3 of those wins coming by 18-plus points.  San Antonio is 19-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more since 1996.  Utah has only covered in 3 of its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take San Antonio.

7* ATL/TB Thursday NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -3.5

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are outgaining teams by 1.2 yards per play this season, which is the best mark in the entire NFL.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting outgained by 0.9 yards per play on the year, which is the second-worst mark in the NFL.  I think this is an absolute mismatch, especially with the Bucs' top 3 running backs out due to injury.  The Oakland Raiders put up 626 yards of offense on the Bucs last week.  The Bucs' defense was on the field for a long time in the OT loss, which works against them on this short week.  The Falcons have the league's top scoring offense and total offense and should shred the Bucs just as the Raiders did.  Tampa Bay is 18-43-1 ATS in its last 62 home games, and 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS at home this season.  Take Atlanta.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Boston Celtics +10

The Key: I know the Boston Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here, but this is one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  That depth allows the Celtics to play well on no rest.  They are actually 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games playing on 0 days' rest.  The city of Cleveland is down right now after losing the World Series.  I think that will carry over to their basketball team here tonight.  Either way, it's going to be hard for the Cavs to win by double-digits against these pesky Celtics.  Take Boston.

6* Oklahoma/Iowa State ESPN National TV *Annihilator* on Iowa State +20.5

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones have had some weekday magic over the years.  They beat previously unbeaten and national title contender Oklahoma State as 27-point underdogs in 2011.  They only lost to Texas 30-31 in 2013 and should have won that game as the refs blew a fumble call in the final minutes.  Now they take on Oklahoma and should give the Sooners are run for their money.  The Sooners are down to one scholarship running back, and he's a freshman.  That's because Samaje Perine is hurt, and Joe Mixon is suspended.  The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They only lost to Baylor by 3 at home and to Kansas State by 5 at home.  Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home games overall, while Oklahoma is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS win.  Take Iowa State.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Dallas Mavericks +4

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks are hungry for their first win of the season.  They are 0-3 with an overtime loss to the Pacers and a 1-point loss to the Rockets.  But they've had two days in between games, which has helped Dirk Nowitzki get over his illness, and he should be good to go tonight.  This is an awful spot for the Jazz, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days.  They beat the Spurs on the road last night and will likely be in a letdown spot here.  The Mavs are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Take Dallas.

7* Cubs/Indians World Series *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -115

The Key: The Chicago Cubs send ace Kyle Hendricks to the mound tonight to finish off this series, just as he did in Game 6 against the Dodgers by pitching an absolute gem.  Hendricks is on full rest, while his counterpart Corey Kluber is only on 3 days of rest.  Since this is the Cubs' third time seeing Kluber, I think they'll have their most success against him.  They did get a base runner on in all but one inning against Kluber in Game 4, but they didn't do much with it.  They will do more damage this time around.  I look for Hendricks to depart with the lead and for the bullpen to finish it off.  Take Chicago.

6* Toledo/Akron MAC *CA$H COW* on Toledo -10

The Key: The Toledo Rockets have been very impressive this season.  They are 6-2 on the season with their two losses coming by a combined 7 points.  Off their first conference loss, I look for them to come out hungry tonight against Akron, which just lost by 21 to lowly Buffalo last week.  The Rockets have outgained all 8 foes this season and by an average of 167 yards per game.  Akron has been outgained in 6 of 9 games this season and by an average of 82 yards per game.  This looks like an obvious mismatch on paper and should be on the scoreboard as well.  The Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Take Toledo.

7* World Series Game of the Year on Chicago Cubs -144

The Key: The Chicago Cubs feel like they can pull off the comeback from a 3-1 deficit.  After winning Game 5, they now have Jake Arrieta back on the mound in Cleveland.  The last time he was there in Game 2 he took a no-hitter into the 6th inning in a 5-1 victory for the Cubs.  I expect Arrieta to come up big, and for the Cubs to tee off on Josh Tomlin, who has been pitching above his head thus far in the postseason and is due to get knocked around a little bit here.  Take Chicago.

6* Western Michigan/Ball State MAC *CA$H COW* on Ball State +17.5

The Key: The Ball State Cardinals are one of the most improved teams in the MAC this season.  They have gone 4-4 this season and what impresses me most is that they have been in every game they have played.  All four of their losses have come by 10 points or less.  That includes a 3-point loss at Central Michigan and a 10-point loss at Indiana in their two toughest games this season.  They are capable of keeping up with Western Michigan.  The Broncos are clearly overvalued right now due to their 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS start this season.  They haven't covered in 2 of their last 3 games as their lines have simply been too big, similar to this one tonight.  I'll take all the points I can get with the Cardinals here.  Take Ball State.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat -3.5

The Key: The NBA schedule makers did the Kings no favors to start the season.  They have to be gassed right now considering they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  I look for the Miami Heat to take advantage and put away the Kings early in a blowout victory.  The Heat have been solid this season with a 12-point win over the Magic on the road, and narrow 6 and 7-point home losses to the Hornets and Spurs, respectively.  The Kings showed signs of wearing down last night as they were outscored 14-27 in the fourth quarter in a 95-106 loss at Atlanta.  The Heat are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games, 21-7 ATS in their last 28 meetings, and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home meetings.  Take Miami.

7* MIN/CHI NFC North *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 40.5

The Key: The Minnesota Vikings are an UNDER machine.  The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Vikings last 26 games overall, 12-3-1 in Vikings last 16 road games, and 7-0 in Vikings last 7 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Bears last 6 division games, and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series.  The Vikings lead the NFL in scoring defense and total defense.  But the Vikings are just No. 31 in total offense.  And the Bears are last in the NFL in scoring offense.  This game sets up to be an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle once again.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Brooklyn Nets +6.5

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets are a perfect 3-0 ATS in three games this season.  They are just 1-2 straight up, but they only lost by 5 on the road to the Celtics, and by 2 on the road to the Bucks.  They won their only home game, beating the Pacers by 9 as 6-point dogs.  I think they will give the Chicago Bulls a run for their money here tonight with a chance to win outright as 6.5-point dogs.  The Nets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bulls are 1-11 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more over the past 2 seasons.  Take Brooklyn.

6* Sunday NFL *TOTAL* Annihilator on Chargers/Broncos UNDER 43.5

The Key: These teams just played two weeks ago in a 21-13 home win for the Chargers and 34 combined points.  With their familiarity with one another, it's simply hard for either team to score points.  The Broncos still have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Chargers' defense has been better ever since Joey Bosa entered the lineup, and now corner Brandon Flowers is expected to return this week to give them a boost.  The UNDER is 20-6-1 in Chargers last 27 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games overall.  The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Broncos last 16 home games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.  Take the UNDER.

7* NFL Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Carolina Panthers -2.5

The Key: The Carolina Panthers are coming off their bye week and are in must-win mode now.  They are just 1-5 on the season, though I still believe they are one of the best teams in the NFL, and that will show on Sunday.  The Arizona Cardinals are coming off an overtime tie against the Seahawks and are clearly not in the best shape right now mentally and physically after that contest.  The Panthers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games following a road game.  Cam Newton is 7-1 ATS in his last 8 home starts.  The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 9 points or fewer in their previous game.  Take Carolina.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Cleveland Browns +2

The Key: This is the best chance for the Browns to win this season.  I think they get that first victory here against the awful New York Jets.  I just don't like the Jets' locker room right now after Ryan Fitzpatrick called out coaches and management for benching him.  Meanwhile, Hue Jackson has the Browns playing hard every week.  And now Josh McCown, their best quarterback, returns to the lineup this week.  He will make a big difference for this team and I upgrade the Browns a couple points with him at QB for sure.  The Jets are 1-4 ATS as a road favorite under Todd Bowles, losing three of those games outright.  Take Cleveland.

6* T'Wolves/Kings Saturday NBA *BAILOUT* on Timberwolves/Kings UNDER 206

The Key: Tom Thibodeau has installed a defensive mindset into this Minnesota team that has been missing over the past couple seasons.  The Timberwolves held opponents to just over 94 points per game in the preseason.  They started the season with a 98-102 loss at Memphis, and I look for them to lock in defensively tonight against the Kings.  The Kings have shown defensive improvement under Dave Joerger as well as they are going all-out on that side of the court in the early going.  They held Phoenix to just 94 points in the opener and San Antonio to a respectable 102 points in their second game of the season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with combined scores of 202, 217, 194 and 192 points.  Take the UNDER.

6* Indians/Cubs World Series *CA$H COW* on Chicago -127

The Key: The Chicago Cubs are 21-6 in their last 27 games following a loss.  They have shown a ton of resiliency already in this postseason, winning three straight games after falling behind to the Dodgers 2-1 in the NLCS.  Look for them to be much better at the plate against Corey Kluber tonight after seeing him already in Game 1.  The Indians are taking a big gamble here starting Kluber on short rest.  They lost the last time he started on short rest against the Blue Jays in Game 4 last series.  The Cubs are 5-0 in John Lackey's last 5 starts, and I expect him to come up big for them once again tonight.  Take Chicago.

6* Northwestern/Ohio State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Northwestern +27.5

The Key: The Northwestern Wildcats are playing their best football of the season right now and are clearly capable of giving Ohio State a run for its money.  The Wildcats are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  They won 38-31 at Iowa as 11-point dogs, 54-40 at Michigan State as 6-point dogs, and 24-14 at home against Indiana as 3-point favorites.  Their offense is hitting on all cylinders.  Clayton Thorson is the third-leading passer in the Big Ten at 240.9 yards per game and 14 touchdowns.  Justin Jackson is the conference's leading rusher with 792 yards, and Austin Carr is the conference's leading receiver with 50 catches for 720 yards and nine scores.  Ohio State's offense just hasn't been the same of late,  They only managed 383 yards against Indiana, scored 23 points in regulation against Wisconsin, and were held to 21 points against Penn State.  They're going to need to score close to 50 to cover this 27-point spread, but I don't think they're capable of it against this Northwestern defense, which gives up 21.9 points per game.  Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in home games off one or more straight unders over the last 2 seasons.  Take Northwestern.

7* Miami/ND Non-Conference Game of the Month on Notre Dame +1.5

The Key: This is the start of a new season for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  They have started 2-5 this year and will have to get four wins in their last five games to make a bowl.  There's no question this team is shooting for that target, and the next four games are all winnable against Miami, Navy, Army and Virginia Tech.  Now they've had a bye week to catch their breath and should play one of their best games of the season this week.  It's worth noting that all five of Notre Dame's losses have come by 8 points or less, so they are better than their record.  Maimi has been overmatched in three straight losses to FSU, UNC and VA Tech.  They have been outgained in 4 straight games, while Notre Dame has actually outgained 4 of 7 opponents this season.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who pass for 250 or more yards per game over the last 2 seasons.  They are losing by 17.2 points per game on average.  Take Notre Dame.

6* NCAAF Rivalry Game of the Week on Michigan State +24.5

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans haven't been this big of home underdogs since 1991.  And this is a rivalry game, so I don't believe the Spartans should be catching this many points.  I understand that Michigan wants revenge considering the Spartans are 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series.  But they will gladly take a win, even if its by 24 points or fewer, which is likely going to be the case in this game.  This will only be Michigan's second road game of the season with the first coming at lowly Rutgers.  The schedule has been rather soft for the Wolverines to say the least, and I believe them to be overvalued because of it.  Take Michigan State.

7* Warriors/Pelicans ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -10.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors have been steaming mad since their 100-129 loss to the San Antonio Spurs in the opener.  Look for them to take it out on the hapless New Orleans Pelicans, who are the worst team in the Western Conference to open the season.  The Pelicans are missing two starters in Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday, and their lineup is one of the worst in the NBA as a result right now.  Even the Denver Nuggets beat them 107-102 in the opener despite committing 24 turnovers.  The Warriors should roll from start to finish and easily win this game by double-digits.  The Pelicans are 0-9 ATS after a game with 30 or more assists over the last 3 seasons.  Take Golden State.

6* Indians/Cubs World Series *CA$H COW* on Chicago -1.5 (+109)

The Key: The Chicago Cubs should win by multiple runs tonight.  Their offense is hitting on all cylinders in scoring at least 5 runs in four of their last five games overall.  They should feast on Josh Tomlin, who sports a 4.31 ERA in 31 starts this season.  Kyle Hendricks should continue to dominate.  He's 10-3 with a 1.31 ERA in 17 home starts this year and 1-1 with a 1.65 ERA in 3 postseason starts.  The Cubs have owned right-handed starters, going 43-13 in their last 56 games against them.  Take Chicago on the Run Line.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Diego State -5

The Key: The San Diego State Aztecs are one of the best non-power 5 teams in the country.  They are 6-1 this season and coming off a 42-3 win over San Jose State.  They went undefeated in conference play last year, and they're 3-0 in conference play this year, winning by 24.0 points per game on average.  Utah State is just 1-3 in conference play this season with its only win coming at home over Fresno State, which is probably the worst team in the Mountain West.  All three of Utah State's conference losses have come by 7 points or more.  SDSU beat Utah State 48-14 last year and outgained them by 190 yards thanks to 336 rushing yards.  The Aztecs are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 conference games and 9-1 ATS int heir last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Aztecs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win.  Take San Diego State.

6* Cal/USC ESPN *BAILOUT* on USC -16

The Key: The USC Trojans come into this game fresh and ready to go.  They haven't played in almost two weeks.  They are 3-0 in their last 3 games overall, winning by an average of 19.7 points per game and outgaining foes by 206 yards per game.  Cal doesn't have the same luxury.  It played a double-OT game last Friday against Oregon and will not be fresh at all for this contest.  The Cal defense, which gives up 41.3 points per game this season, might give up 60 to the Trojans in this one.  I look for USC to score at will and to get enough stops to easily cover this 16-point spread given the situation.  After all, the Trojans have won 12 straight meetings in this series, and they're 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take USC.

7* Jags/Titans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville +3.5

The Key: Both of the Jaguars' wins this season have come on the road.  One was against the Colts in London in a game they dominated.  That's the same Colts team that just beat the Titans 34-26 in Tennessee last week.  The Titans are awful at home as they are 1-3 with their only win coming by 2 points over the Browns.  They are 2-9 ATS at home over the past 2 seasons and 14-34-3 ATS in their last 51 home games.  The Titans are also 1-12 ATS in their last 13 division games.  The Jags give up just 4.9 yards per play on defense while the Titans allow 5.9 yards per play.  I'll back the better defense here catching 3.5 points.  Take Jacksonville.

6* Celtics/Bulls TNT *CA$H COW* on UNDER 211

The Key: Because the Celtics played a shootout against the Nets last night in a 122-117 win, this total has been inflated tonight.  The Celtics won't be playing with the same energy as they did last night, and the Bulls are a much better defensive team than the Nets.  The Bulls have plus-defenders in Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Robin Lopez, Rajon Rondo and Dwayne Wade in their starting lineup.  They will be a great defensive team this year.  I worry about their offense, though, as they lack shooting in their starting 5.  This may be one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA this season.  All 3 meetings between these teams last season saw 211 or fewer combined points.  They combined for 211, 193 and 205 points in them.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Celtics last 17 games following a straight up win.  The UNDER is 40-18-3 in Celtics last 61 Thursday games.  Take the UNDER.

6* Rockets/Lakers ESPN *BAILOUT* on OVER 222

The Key: Mike D'Antoni was a perfect fit for Houston's roster.  That has proven to be the case in the preseason as the Rockets led the league with an average of 118.6 points per game, which was 6 points more than second-place Golden State.  Their defense leaves a lot to be desired as they gave up 108.1 points per game in the preseason.  The Lakers are going to be improved offensively this season with their young nucleus in Luke Walton's system, which he brings over from Golden State.  They average a solid 105.9 points per game in the preseason to finish in the Top 10.  But they had the fourth-worst scoring defense in allowing 107.2 points per game, and that will be the case all season.  Look for plenty of points in this opener as the combined scored of this game sails way OVER 222 points.  Take the OVER.

7* NBA Non-Conference *BLOWOUT* on Indiana Pacers -6.5

The Key: The Indiana Pacers made some nice moves this offseason in adding Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson.  They already have their star in Paul George and an emerging star in Myles Turner.  Look for the Pacers to get off to a fast start in their opener and not let up at home against the Dallas Mavericks.  The Mavericks went just 2-5 in the preseason and were outscored by nearly 9 points per game.  They spent too much money on Harrison Barnes, and the rest of their roster are far past their primes.  The Mavs will be a mess this season as they finish as one of the worst teams in the West, while the Pacers finish among the East's elite.  Take Indiana.

6* Cubs/Indians World Series *CA$H COW* on Chicago -132

The Key: The Cubs have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Jake Arrieta over Trevor Bauer.  They also have the motivational advantage after losing Game 1.  The Cubs are 36-16 in Arrieta's last 52 road starts and 39-15 in his last 54 starts overall.  They are also 14-1 in his last 15 road starts with a price range of -100 to -150.  Take Chicago.

7* Spurs/Warriors TNT *BAILOUT* on Golden State -8

The Key: The Golden State Warriors should hit the ground running tonight at home against the San Antonio Spurs in front of a hostile home crowd.  The Warriors are far and away the best team in the NBA, and they showed signs of that in the preseason by going 6-1, clearly not taking long at all to adjust to some new faces in Kevin Durant and Zaza Pachulia.  The Warriors will be favored by double-digits in most games this season.  They have gone 33-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 years.  I think we are getting a discount on them in the opener against the Spurs, who will take a few steps back this season.  Take Golden State.

6* Cubs/Indians World Series *CA$H COW* on Chicago -111

The Key: Jon Lester is 8-6 with a 2.05 ERA in his postseason career, which spans 17 starts and 2 relief appearances. He has been even better this postseason, going 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in 3 starts while yielding only 2 earned runs in 21 innings.  Look for the veteran lefty to shut down the Indians in this one.  The Cubs got their bats going with 23 runs on 33 hits over their final 3 games in the NLCS.  That should carry over into Game 1 of the World Series as well.  Take Chicago.

7* HOU/DEN AFC *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 40.5

The Key: Both offenses are terrible and both defenses are borderline elite in this game.  The Broncos rank No. 28 in total offense while the Texans are No. 27 in total offense.  Denver ranks No. 4 in total defense while Houston ranks No. 7 in total defense.  Houston's offense is averaging less than 5 yards per play and Denver's defense gives up 4.7 yards per play.  The Texans only average 5.4 yards per pass play while the Broncos rank 1st in the NFL against the pass, giving up only 183 yards per game.  Points will be at a premium tonight.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Texans last 6 games following a win.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 10-4-1 in Broncos last 15 home games.  Take the UNDER.

7* NFL Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1

The Key: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are primed for a big performance Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers.  They are coming off their bye week following a 17-14 win at Carolina that could have turned their season around.  Now they get to face the lowly 49ers, who have just kept getting crushed week after week.  The 49ers are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, losing all five games by at least 7 points, and losing four times by at least 12 points.  Their defense just gave up 491 total yards, including 312 rushing, in a 16-45 loss at Buffalo last week.  San Francisco is 0-6 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game over the past 3 seasons.  It is losing by 12.3 points per game on average.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Chargers/Falcons Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on San Diego +6.5

The Key: All four of San Diego's losses this season have come by 6 points or less, so that fact alone shows that the Chargers are undervalued.  The Falcons have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games, so they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now.  Keep in mind that all 5 of those wins were as underdogs, but now the Falcons are 6.5-point favorites over the Chargers.  That's important because the Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorites, while the Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  The Chargers also get extra time to prepare for this game after beating the Broncos 21-13 last Thursday.  Take San Diego.

6* Bills/Dolphins AFC East *CA$H COW* on Miami +3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins had their starting five offensive linemen for the first time last week against Pittsburgh.  That's why it is no surprise that they put forth their best performance of the season offensively.  They beat the Steelers 30-15 behind 474 yards of total offense, including 222 rushing.  Their defense also played very well, limiting the Steelers to just 297 total yards and forcing two turnovers.  But the Dolphins aren't getting any love from oddsmakers this week as home underdogs to the Bills, who are getting too much respect due to winning four straight games coming in.  They beat the Cardinals thanks to 5 turnovers from Arizona, the Patriots with 3rd-string QB Jacoby Brissett, the Rams without 3 of their top defensive linemen, and the hapless 49ers and Colin Kaepernick.  So, they've simply benefited from an easy schedule, but now they face a Dolphins team that is as healthy as they've been all season.  Buffalo is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following four or more consecutive wins.  The Bills are expected to be without two key players in RB LeSean McCoy and DT Marcell Dareus, who are both doubtful.  Rex Ryan is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good rushing teams who average 4.5 or more yards per carry as a head coach.  Take Miami.

6* Washington State/ASU Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Washington State -7.5

The Key: After losing to Eastern Washington and Boise State by a combined 6 points to open the season, the Washington State Cougars have gone 4-0 since with four straight dominant victories against some really good competition.  They beat Idaho 56-6, Oregon 51-33 and Stanford 42-16 on the road.  They 'only' beat UCLA 27-21 at home last week, but that game was played in a downpour, and it was a bigger blowout than the final score as the Cougars led 24-7 in the second half.  Arizona State is clearly one of the worst teams in the Pac-12.  The Sun Devils have been outgained badly in four straight games.  They were outgained by 183 yards by Cal, by 220 yards by USC, by 168 yards by UCLA, and by 381 yards in a 16-40 loss to Colorado last week.  The Cougars are legitimate contenders to win the Pac-12 and will continue their mission this week with a dominant victory against the overmatched Sun Devils.  The Cougars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Washington State.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on TCU +6.5

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs are fresh off their bye after an uninspiring 24-23 win at Kansas two weeks ago.  Gary Patterson has gotten the attention of his players, and I look for the Horned Frogs to put forth their best effort of the season Saturday.  Patterson is the king of using the bye week to his advantage.  His teams are 12-1 SU & 13-0 ATS in their last 13 off regular season bye weeks.  It's time to sell high on the West Virginia Mountaineers, who are 5-0 but struggled to put away both BYU and Kansas State, beating those two teams by a combined 4 points.  TCU will be the best opponent that WVU has faced this season.  The Mountaineers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take TCU.

6* Indiana/Northwestern Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Northwestern -2.5

The Key: The Northwestern Wildcats are 3-3 on the season and desperately need this win if they want to get to a bowl game.  That's because they have games against Ohio State and Wisconsin on deck, so if they lose this game, they would have to go 3-0 in their final three games to make a bowl.  The Wildcats are getting no respect despite back-to-back road wins over Iowa and Michigan State in which they scored 38 and 54 points, respectively.  Indiana is in a tough scheduling spot here after three straight games against Michigan State, Ohio State and Nebraska in which they went 1-2.  Northwestern has won the last four meetings, including the last two years where the Wildcats scored 44 and 59 points.  Their offense should continue to play at a high level here, and the Wildcats should be much bigger home favorites in this one.  The Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  Take Northwestern.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Jose State +23

The Key: The San Jose State Spartans have played much better in Mountain West play.  They lost by a touchdown to New Mexico, beat Nevada and lost to Hawaii as a favorite.  San Diego State lost at South Alabama by 18 a few weeks ago, ruining their perfect season.  They came back with flat efforts in a 26-7 win over UNLV and a 17-3 win over Fresno State the past two weeks.  The Aztecs have an elite defense, but their offense simply isn't good enough to lay big numbers like this 23-point spread.  They have no passing game, and Donnel Pumphrey may be wearing down.  He has 167 carries already, including 69 in the past two games.  San Diego State is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in its previous game.  Take San Jose State.

6* BYU/Boise State ESPN *BAILOUT* on Boise State -6.5

The Key: BYU couldn't have played a tougher schedule to this point and it has yet to have a bye week.  It is coming off a double-overtime win against Mississippi State last week.  I can't help but think the Cougars are going to be fatigued heading into this showdown with 6-0 Boise State.  The home team has won 5 straight meetings in this series, including a 25-point win by the Broncos over the Cougars in 2016.  The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Boise State.

7* Bears/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +7.5

The Key: There's no way the Packers should be this big of favorites when you consider the injuries they are dealing with right now.  They will be without their top 3 cornerbacks, and Eddy Lacy and James Starks are both expected to miss this game.  It's no wonder they lost to the Cowboys by 14 points Sunday with all the guys they were missing.  And the Packers haven't beaten anyone by more than 7 points this season.  The Bears are better than their 1-5 record as they are outgaining teams by 34 yards per game and have outgained their last 3 opponents by 343 combined yards.  Brian Hoyer has thrown for at least 300 yards in 4 straight games.  He will have a big day against this beat-up Packers' secondary, and the Bears will have a great shot to pull off the upset because of it.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, including a 17-13 outright win as 7.5-point road dogs by the Bears last season.  Take Chicago.

6* Cubs/Dodgers NLCS *CA$H COW* on Chicago -151

The Key: Jon Lester posted a 0.64 ERA in two postseason starts this season.  He also sports a 0.86 ERA in his 3 starts against the Dodgers this year, giving up only 2 earned runs over 21 innings of work.  Kenta Maeda comes in struggling, having given up 12 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings in his last 3 starts for an 11.17 ERA.  The Cubs are 18-2 in night games started by Lester this season.  Take Chicago.

7* MLB Playoffs Game of the Year on Toronto Blue Jays -179

The Key: After finally picking up a win this series, the Toronto Blue Jays really believe they can come back and win it all.  After all, they won four straight games to open the postseason, and that's the task they have in this series if they want to advance to the World Series.  They believe they can do it, and that's the first part.  They also have a great advantage on the mound in Game 5 at home tonight.  Marco Estrada has pitched 16 1/3 innings of 3-run ball thus far in the postseason, and he's 10-10 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in 31 starts this year.  He'll be opposed by rookie Ryan Merritt, who will be making just his 2nd career start in the big leagues.  That's why the Blue Jays are worth the price of admission today as -179 favorites.  They are also 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. left-handed starters.  Take Toronto.

7* Indians/Blue Jays ALCS *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -116

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays won four straight games to open the postseason.  Down 3-0, they will need to win four straight to win this series against Cleveland.  It starts with one, and that's Game 4 today.  I like Aaron Sanchez, who is 15-2 with a 3.23 ERA in 31 starts this year and wins almost every time he takes the mound.  Corey Kluber has struggled against the Blue Jays in the past, going 2-3 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts.  He pitched well against them in Game 1, but the chances of shutting down this potent Blue Jays lineup twice in one series is not very good.  Take Toronto.

7* Jets/Cardinals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -7

The Key: The New York Jets are a mess right now.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games while getting outscored a combined 33-82 in the process.  The Arizona Cardinals are just 2-3, but they are clearly better than their record.  The Cardinals are outgaining teams by 55 yards per game and outscoring them by nearly 5 points per game.  The Jets are getting outgained by 19 yards per game and getting outscored by nearly 9 points per game.  New Yoprk has all kinds of injury problems too.  LB David Harris is doubtful, WR Eric Decker is out, and CB Darrelle Revis, C Nick Mangold and DE Sheldon Richardson are all questionable.  Carson Palmer makes his return from a concussion tonight, and the Cardinals are extra rested after playing last Thursday.  Without Decker, Arizona can put Patrick Peterson on Brandon Marshall, and the Jets are really going to have a hard time moving the football tonight.  Bets against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 43-17 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Cardinals are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Arizona.

6* Indians/Blue Jays ALCS *CA$H COW* on Toronto -1.5 (+115)

The Key: Marcus Stroman sports a 1.29 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 2 starts against Cleveland this season.  He has allowed only 2 earned runs in 14 innings in those 2 starts.  Trevor Bauer has never beaten the Blue Jays, going 0-1 with an 8.57 ERA and 1.757 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts.  Stroman has never been beaten in 4 postseason starts, going 1-0 with a 3.91 ERA over the past 2 seasons.  The Blue Jays really need this win, and I think they'll get it by multiple runs tonight behind another dominant performance from Stroman.  Take Toronto on the Run Line.

7* Cowboys/Packers NFC Game of the Month on Green Bay -5

The Key: The Packers are outscoring opponents by nearly 14 points per game in the 1st half of their last 17 home games.  They still have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  The Dallas Cowboys will get a reality check today.  Dak Prescott is going to have to do more than he's used to today, as he has thrown just 5% of his passes more than 20 yards down field.  He's doing the dink and dunk thing well, but he'll be forced to play from behind in this game.  The Packers will stop the run as they rank 1st in the NFL against the run, giving up only 43 yards per game and 2 yards per carry.  That will be the difference.  Take Green Bay.

6* NFL Sunday *UPSET SPECIAL* on Miami Dolphins +7.5

The Key: I think the Miami Dolphins have a legitimate chance to pull the upset today.  It will be the first time all season that center Pouncey and tackle Albert have played together, so their offensive line is getting healthy.  Meanwhile, the Steelers are without two of their best defenders in Ryan Shazier and Cam Heyward.  After back-to-back blowout home wins, the Steelers are overvalued right now.  The last time they were on the road they lost 34-3 to the Eagles.  The Dolphins are playing for their season right now after a 1-4 start and will put up a big fight, likely pulling off the upset.  Take Miami.

6* 49ers/Bills Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on San Francisco +7.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bills are overvalued right now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  Now they are laying more than a touchdown at home to the 49ers.  If not for turnovers, the 49ers would have beaten the Cardinals last Thursday.  And now they've had some extra time to prepare for this game and get Colin Kaepernick ready to play quarterback.  They have the element of surprise with him, which I think will be tough for the Bills to deal with.  Take San Francisco.

6* Dodgers/Cubs NLCS *CA$H COW* on Chicago -1.5 (+116)

The Key: Instead of laying -190 on the money line, I'm going to go with the Cubs on the Run Line in Game 1 of this series.  They have had plenty of time off after taking down the Giants on Tuesday, while the Dodgers just finished a tough series against the Nationals on Thursday.  I like the pitching matchup today in favor of the Cubs.  Jon Lester is 20-5 with a 2.35 ERA in 33 starts this year, and 11-2 with a 1.162 WHIP in 16 home starts.  Kenta Maeda has really struggled of late for the Dodgers, going 0-3 with an 11.17 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Lester is 2-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles.  In 2 starts against L.A. in 2016, he has given up just 1 earned run and 9 base runners over 15 innings.  Lester is 21-3 (+16.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  The Cubs are winning by 2.6 runs per game on average int his spot.  Take Chicago.

6* Mountain West *CA$H COW* on New Mexico +14

The Key: A lot of folks are mistaking this as a home game for Air Force, but that's not the case as it will be played in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX.  Both New Mexico and Air Force play similar styles as they are primarily running teams.  And the Lobos get a nice boost this week with the return of top RB Teriyon Gipson.  Since these teams play similar styles, they know each other well, and the results in recent meetings have been nail-biters.  In fact, each of the last 4 meetings have been decided by 12 points or fewer with margins of 12, 4, 8 and 5 points.  New Mexico beat Air Force 47-35 last year and outgained them 512 to 389 for the game.  The Falcons are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss.  The Lobos are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take New Mexico.

6* Conference USA *CA$H COW* on Middle Tennessee -2

The Key: Middle Tennessee is in a great spot here.  It is coming off a bye week, so it has had two full weeks to prepare for Western Kentucky.  This is the biggest game of the season for the Blue Raiders as they feel they are the best team in Conference USA and want to prove it against the defending conference champs.  Middle Tennessee beat LA Tech 38-34 at home three weeks ago.  That's the same LA Tech team that WKU lost to 52-55 on the road last week in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  WKU trailed 52-31 in the 4th quarter before making a big comeback and was still outgained by 134 yards.  The Hilltoppers continue to be overvalued as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Take Middle Tennessee.

7* NCAAF Situational Game of the Year on Virginia +4

The Key: The Virginia Cavaliers have gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  Yet, they still get no love from oddsmakers here.  They are coming off their two best games of the season with a 49-35 home win over Central Michigan as 5-point dogs and a 34-20 road win at Duke as 3-point dogs.  They had a bye last week, so they'll be fresh and ready to go at home against Pitt this week.  Pitt is dead tired right now after playing 6 straight weeks to open the season, and 4 of its last 5 games were decided by 7 points or less.  I believe the Panthers will run out of gas this week, especially after having to face Georgia Tech's triple-option last week.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.  Take Virginia.

7* Miss State/BYU ESPN Friday Night Lights on UNDER 56.5

The Key: Mississippi State is 54-36 UNDER in all games with Dan Mullen as head coach.  The Bulldogs are 4-1 UNDER in their 5 games this season as well.  Four of those five finished with 52 or less points.  BYU is 4-2 UNDER in its 6 games this season.  Four of those finished with 45 or fewer combined points.  Given that evidence, it appears the oddsmakers have inflated this total.  Both teams are run-first offenses, and both defenses are excellent at stopping the run, so the matchup favors the UNDER as well.  The UNDER is 30-8 in BYU's last 38 games vs. a team that averages 4.75 or more yards per carry.  Take the UNDER.

6* Blue Jays/Indians ALCS *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 7.5

The Key: This is a very short total for two of the better offenses in the American League.  The Blue Jays have scored 22 runs thus far in the postseason.  The Indians have scored 15 so far.  Cleveland is averaging 5.6 runs per game at home this season, making it no surprise that the OVER is 48-32 in their 80 home games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Indians last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take the OVER.

7* DEN/SD Thursday NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego +3

The Key: The San Diego Chargers are the most underrated team in the NFL right now.  They have held a lead for more minutes than any other team in the league this season.  However, they are 1-4 with their four losses all coming by 4 points or less.  But now the Chargers' season is on the line here against the Broncos.  They can't afford to fall behind any further in the AFC West standings if they are going to make a run.  So with their backs against the wall here at home, I'll back them as 3-point home dogs.  The Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a division loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC West foes.  Take San Diego.

7* Appalachian State/LA-Lafayette ESPN 2 *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 48.5

The Key: Lafayette is coming off back-to-back overtime games that have inflated this total.  They were tied with Tulane 16-16 at the end of regulation two weeks ago for 32 combined points, then proceeded to score 48 points in OT.  They were tied with New Mexico State 24-24 at the end of regulation last week for 48 combined points, but added 20 more points in OT.  Last year, Appalachian State beat LA Lafayette 28-7 for 35 combined points, and I expect to see a similar result here.  Three of Appalachian State's five games this season finished with 38 or fewer combined points, including last week's 17-3 win over Georgia State.  Both offenses are subpar, and both defenses are better than average, especially Appalachian State.  Both teams also prefer to keep the ball on the ground as the Mountaineers rush 47 times per game while the Rajin' Cajuns rush 46 times per game.  That will keep the clock moving.  Both defenses are good against the run as App State allows 134 yards per game while Lafayette gives up only 116 yards per game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Mountaineers last 4 games following a bye week.  Both teams have had extra time to prepare, which also favors the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

7* Cubs/Giants Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -119

The Key: The Chicago Cubs are 18-7 in their last 25 games following a loss.  They are 4-1 in John Lackey's last 5 starts.  Lackey is the better starter in this matchup.  He is 11-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 29 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Matt Moore, who is 13-12 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.291 WHIP in 33 starts.  The Cubs are 8-2 in their last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take Chicago.

6* Cubs/Giants NLDS Game 3 *CA$H COW* on San Francisco -101

The Key: Madison Bumgarner's success in the postseason is well documented.  He has gone 5-1 with a 0.88 ERA in during the 2014 and 2016 postseasons.  When the Giants have been facing elimination, he's gone 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA while pitching 23 shutout innings.  Jake Arrieta struggled in the second half this season and posted a 4.60 ERA in the month of September.  Bumgarner owns the Cubs as well, going 8-2 with a 2.25 ERA in 12 lifetime starts.  Take San Francisco.

7* TB/CAR Monday Night *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 46

The Key: Turnovers are the biggest reason both of these teams are off to 1-3 starts.  The Bucs have committed 11 through four games while the Panthers have committed 10.  That has led to easy scores for opponents.  I look for both teams to go with a more conservative approach tonight to try and avoid those turnovers in essentially what is a must-win game for both teams.  And the end result is going to be a defensive battle that is much lower-scoring than this 46-point total would suggest.  I also like the fact that Derek Anderson is starting in place of Cam Newton as the Panthers' offense will be less explosive.  He started two games against Tampa Bay in 2014 in place of an inured Newton.  The Panthers won 20-14 and 19-17 in both those games, which saw 34 and 36 combined points, respectively.  Tampa Bay is 21-6 UNDER in its last 27 road games after gaining 4 or fewer yards per play in its previous game.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Bucs last 10 division games.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Bucs last 20 vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Carolina.  Take the UNDER.

6* Bills/Rams Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +2.5

The Key: No analysis Sunday

6* Titans/Dolphins AFC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +3

The Key: No analysis Sunday

7* NFC Game of the Week on Detroit Lions +3.5

The Key: No analysis Sunday

6* UCLA/Arizona State Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Arizona State +10

The Key: Arizona State comes in way undervalued as a 10-point home underdog to UCLA this week.  The Sun Devils were blown out by USC on the road last week while UCLA blew out an injury-ravaged Arizona team at home.  Those two results have created some artificial line inflation this week that we're going to take advantage of.  Another reason the public is all over UCLA is because ASU will be starting freshman QB Brady White.  But White was the top-rated QB recruit in the history of ASU coming out of high school.  He actually led Arizona State on two scoring drives in the fourth quarter against USC last week to get his feet wet.  I think he'll be just fine here, especially in front of his home fans.  Last year, ASU beat UCLA 38-23 on the road and outgained the Bruins by 123 yards.  Josh Rosen only completed 22 of 40 passes in the loss for UCLA and figures to struggle again here.  The Sun Devils are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games coming in.  The Bruins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 following an ATS win, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 following a win of more than 20 points, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.  The Sun Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.  These 5 trends off a 27-0 angle backing the Sun Devils.  Take Arizona State.

6* Colorado/USC Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on USC -5.5

The Key: Colorado is getting a lot of love from oddsmakers right now due to a 5-0 ATS start.  But the Buffaloes' luck is about to run out.  USC finally played up to its potential last week in a 41-20 home win over Arizona State.  The Trojans led this game 41-6 entering the 4th quarter before taking their foot off the gas.  Since starting freshman QB Sam Darnold, the offense has really taken off the last two weeks against USC and Utah.  I believe Darnold and company continue to roll and easily cover this small number at home against Colorado.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series, including a 56-28 and 50-6 wins by USC.  The Trojans have won 7 straight in this series, including 5 of the last 6 by 18 points or more.  Take USC.