Sports Picks & Predictions

6* Buffalo -7.5
The Key: I'll grab the home side here as it holds a 5-0-2 ATS advantage in the last 7 in this series. The Bulls have won 3 straight at home over Miami Ohio with the last 2 coming by 18 and 10 points respectively.

6* Illinois-Chicago +3
The Key: Illinois-Chicago has won outright at home as an underdog against Wisconsin-Green Bay each of the last 2 seasons and I expect this trend to continue. The home side as covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 in this series.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah State -5.5
The Key: This is a last home game play on Utah State, which will be out for blood against an Idaho squad that won the first meeting by 3 points last month. The Aggies have won 8 in a row at home against the Vandals and these wins have come by an average of 16.6 points. It is also worth mentioning that all of these wins came by at least 9 points. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Lay the number.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* (TNT) on Knicks +9
The Key: The Knicks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Heat. NY is an incredible 30-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons, only losing these games by an average of 1.0 point.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN2) on Arkansas -2
The Key: Arkansas, who is 17-2 at home this season, is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Crimson Tide are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or fewer. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

6* National TV CA$H COW (ESPN) on Duke -1.5
The Key: Expect Duke to avenge an earlier loss to FSU tonight. The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

6* Minnesota +6
The Key: The Michigan State Spartans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or fewer.

7* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Bucks +11.5
The Key: The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Also, the Bulls are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater.

6* Hawks +7
The Key: The road team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings and the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

6* Bobcats +6
The Key: The Pacers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

6* Buffalo -2.5
The Key: The Ohio Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.

6* Fordham +7
The Key: The Bonnies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

6* Towson +9.5
The Key: The Delaware Blue Hens are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a road favorite and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings at Towson.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Trail Blazers -3.5
The Key: Last night's loss in LA and last month's loss in San Antonio will have the Trail Blazers jacked up tonight. They have defeated the Spurs 6 straight times at home and are 5-1 ATS in those games. Lay the number.

6* Colorado State +6
The Key: The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and have won their last 11 home games straight up.

6* Mississippi State +9
The Key: The Wildcats are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss. The Bulldogs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.

6* NC State +6.5
The Key: The Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. The Wolfpack, meanwhile, are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.

6* Maryland +2.5
The Key: The Terrapins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

6* UMass -113
The Key: The Minutemen are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Musketeers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

6* Warriors +3
The Key: The Warriors have been extremely competitive at home where they have only lost by more than 3 points once in their last 10 games. The home team is 18-8-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings, and the Clippers are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings at Golden State.

6* Jazz +3.5
The Key: The Spurs are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points while the Jazz are10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

6* Wizards +6
The Key: The Suns are coming off a big win over the Lakers but can't be trusted here. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

6* Bucks +2.5
The Key: After losing the season's first two meetings with Orlando, expect the third time to be a charm. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and the Magic are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Hornets +11.5
The Key: Playing on underdogs of 10.0 points or more that are out to avenge a road loss to a foe, provided the "play on" team is only taking the court for the 2nd time in 5 days, has produced a 120-72 (62.5%) ATS record since 1996. Teams in this situation have been underdogs of 12.2 points on average but have lost by only 9.8 points on average. This system has produced a 16-6 (73%) ATS mark the last 3 seasons. Also, New Orleans is on a 13-4 ATS run when catching 11.0 points or more.

6* Rockets -3
The Key: The Rockets have won 10 straight at home versus Memphis, and these wins have come by 12.2 points on average. The Grizzlies are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.

6* Nets +9.5
The Key: Carmelo Anthony's return will likely temporarily interrupt the chemistry the Knicks have developed without him. Plus, the Nets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Suns +3
The Key: The Lakers are just 4-11 ATS on the road this season, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. teams with sub .500 home marks and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games.

6* 76ers +1
The Key: The Timberwolves are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games and 18-40 ATS in their last 58 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

6* Pittsburgh -6.5
The Key: The South Florida Bulls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games in the underdog role.

6* Celtics -5.5
The Key: Extra rest should do this veteran Boston team some good. The Celtics are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Also, the Celtics are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings at Detroit.

6* Iowa +4
The Key: The Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or fewer. The Hoosiers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Iowa.

6* Rutgers +10.5
The Key: The Scarlet Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.

6* Big Ten Play of the Day (ESPN) on Michigan +5.5
The Key: The Wolverines are 14-0 at home this season, winning those games by 12.5 points. They are also 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings with Ohio State.

6* Atlantic 10 Play of the Day on Xavier -7.5
The Key: Since 1998 Xavier has gone 14-0 at home against Dayton, winning those games by an average of 11.2 points.

6* Big East Play of the Day on Providence +7.5
The Key: The Hoyas have been a poor investment in Big East play at 5-14 ATS in their last 19 against the conference. They've also been a poor investment in this series at 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Providence played the Georgetown to a 9-point game on the road Dec. 31, and I like it to keep this one even closer.

7* NCAAB Blowout Game of the Week on Boise State -5.5
The Key: The Broncos have put an 8-game losing streak behind them with back-to-back wins. Wednesday's home win over Colorado State is particularly important because Boise State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games off a home win this season. It's winning by an average score of 89.3 to 62.3 in this situation. TCU only nipped Boise State by 2 in the season's first meeting and it finds itself in a letdown spot following a big overtime win over UNLV. TCU has lost 6 in a row on the road with all of those losses coming by at least 6 points and with them coming by an average of 14.3 points.

6* Big 12 Play of the Day on Oklahoma State +3
The Key: The Longhorns are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. The Cowboys are 36-16-3 ATS in their last 55 home games. Texas is just 2-5 in its last 7 road games with one of those wins coming by just 2 points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on 76ers -3
The Key: The Mavs are expected to be without Rodrique Beaubois, Delonte West and Jason Terry tonight, which means they'll be lacking quality depth against one of the deepest teams in the league. Dallas likely keeps this one close through 3 quarters but runs out of gas down the stretch, opening the door for the 76ers to cover this number. The 76ers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games. Lay the points.

6* Cavs +10
The Key: The Cavs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.

6* Bobcats +7
The Key: The Raptors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Toronto.

6* San Francisco +5
The Key: The Dons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Also, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

6* Washington State +3
The Key: The Cougars are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Cougars have won 3 of their last 5 at home in this series and one of the losses came by just 2 points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Bulls -8
The Key: Fading underdogs (BOSTON) off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more, a team winning 51-60% of its games playing a winning team, has produced a 29-8 ATS mark the last 16 years, including a perfect 6-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons. The Celtics have lost 3 of 4 and 2 of those losses came to Toronto and Detroit. With Sunday's loss at Boston fresh in their minds, expect the Bulls to roll at home, where they are 10-1 with a 13.0-point average margin of victory.

6* CS-Northridge +7
The Key: Northridge is 4-0 in its last 4 at home against Cal Poly. Plus, the home team has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings.

6* Montana State +6.5
The Key: Weber State has failed to win at Montana State by more than 6 points in 7 of its last 8 visits, and I expect this trend to continue.

6* Illinois -3.5
The Key: Fading Purdue off an ATS win has been a golden strategy. The Boilermakers are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a cover. We'll lay the points.

7* NBA Underdog Game of the Year on Rockets +4
The Key: I love the Rockets catching 4 points at home, where they are 10-3 on the season, in this double revenge spot. OKC has won the first 2 meetings but only won by 3 points at Houston, where it has won by more than 4 points just 1 time in the last 14 meetings. We'll take the points for insurance, but I like Houston to win this one straight up.

7* Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year on Austin Peay State -4.5
The Key: The Morehead State Eagles aren't the same team on the road, where they are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. They 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Also, the Governors are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Motivated by a 4-point loss at Morehead State earlier this season, expecting Austin Peay to have its revenge tonight.

6* Wisconsin-Green Bay -5
The Key: The Phoenix have won 9 straight at home against the Youngstown State Penguins, and these 9 wins have coming by 14.0 points on average.

6* Creighton -6.5
The Key: Extremely hungry to end a 3-game slide, expect Creighton to run up the score on a S. Illinois squad it defeated by 19 points last month. The Bluejays are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Southern Illinois. Creighton has won 8 in a row against the Salukis by an average of 11.6 points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers +3
The Key: Plays against road favorites (MIAMI) that have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 50-17 ATS since 1996. The "play against" side has been favored by an average of 3.7 points in this system but has lost by 1.5 points on average. Indiana will be the fresher team tonight as it has had 2 days' rest while the Heat will be playing their third game in 3 days. The Pacers also hold a motivational edge as they look to avenge a bad loss to the Heat last month. Great spot for Indiana. Take the points.

6* Hofstra -4
The Key: Hofstra has won 11 in a row at home against Delaware, and these 11 wins have come by 10.7 points on average.

6* Florida -3
The Key: Off back-to-back losses to Kentucky and Tennessee, expect Florida to bounce back strong against an Alabama team that is missing JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell. The Gators have won 3 straight over the Tide by an average of 12.3 points.

6* NCAAB ESPN Big Monday CA$H COW on Kansas State +4.5
The Key: The Kansas State Wildcats are on a 5-0-1 ATS run at home in the underdog role. Plus, the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 matchups between these two rivals.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Hornets +4
The Key: The Jazz, who are just 3-7 on the road this season, are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Plus, the Hornets have a huge scheduling advantage tonight. They have had 2 full days of rest and prep time while the Jazz just played yesterday. The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Also, the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.

6* Timberwolves +5
The Key: The Magic are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Timberwolves are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

6* Wizards +6
The Key: Detroit hasn't proven it is worthy to be laying this many points. It is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite.

6* Virginia Tech -12.5
The Key: The Boston College Eagles are 0-6 in true road games this season and have been outscored in these contests by an average of 14.5 points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics +3
The Key: The Boston Celtics are a strong 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 home games when valued as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Chicago Bulls, on the other hand, are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when valued as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The value lies with the home dog here.

6* Wright State +2.5
The Key: The Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games when valued as a favorite. The Wright State Raiders are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games when in the underdog role.

7* SEC Game of the Year (ESPN) on Vanderbilt +5
The Key: Riding high off a 20-point blowout win against Florida, the top-ranked Wildcats are primed for a letdown tonight. Vandy is experienced and will be lacking no confidence against a team it defeated by 4 at home and lost to by 2 on the road last season. In fact, each of the last 3 meetings in this series have been decided by 4 points or less.

Vandy has won 8 of its last 9 at home with that lone defeat coming by just 1 point to a very good Mississippi State side. The Commodores are also 11-3 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average of 1.0 point. Look for Vandy to pull off the shocker.

6* Tulsa -13
The Key: I won't hesitate to fade the Houston Cougars on the road. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Off a loss at UTEP and having lost by 1-point at Houston back on Jan. 4, the Golden Hurricane won't spare the Cougars.

6* Youngstown State pk
The Key: This is a letdown spot for Valpo after such a big upset win over Cleveland State. Making this road contest even more difficult will be the absence of Kevin Van Wijk, who ranks 2nd on the team with 14.5 points and 5.2 boards per game. Without his presence in the lineup, I like the Penguins to come out on top.

6* UNLV -9.5
The Key: The UNLV Runnin' Rebels are 13-0 at home this season and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 lined home games. Expect them to avenge an earlier 2-point loss to San Diego State in impressive fashion this afternoon.

6* St. Bonaventure -5.5
The Key: The St. Bonaventure Bonnies have won their last 7 at home with each of those wins coming by at least 8 points.

6* Florida -12.5
The Key: The Gators are 15-0 at home while the Volunteers are 0-7 in true road games. Motivated by an embarrassing loss to Kentucky, and out to avenge a loss to Tennessee in the first meeting, expect Florida to have its revenge. The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

6* Jazz +1.5
The Key: The Jazz will be the fresher team tonight and that will serve them well. This will be Oklahoma City's 2nd game in as many days, 4th game in 5 days and 7th game in 10 days. The Jazz have had 2 days to rest and prepare for this contest. The Jazz are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on 2 days' rest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

6* Pacers +1.5
The Key: The fact Indiana is coming off a loss is of no concern. The Pacers have 8 losses on the season and have followed up each of the first 7 defeats with wins. Going back to last season, the Pacers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss.

6* Mavericks -129
The Key: A 15-point loss to Minnesota last month puts the reigning NBA champs in a great spot. Dallas is 8-0 ATS in road games when out to avenge a loss of 10 points or more to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. It's winning by an average of 8.5 points in this situation.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nets +2.5
The Key: The Pistons are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Also, often undervalued on the Friday night stage, the Nets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Bet the Nets.

6* Pepperdine -2
The Key: This series has been dominated by the home team, which is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. It is also important to note that the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Waves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. Fade San Diego.

6* Suns -3.5
The Key: The Suns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Rockets. The have won the last 4 at home in this matchup by 6.5 points on average.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Lakers +3.5
The Key: I'm not sold on Boston, whose best wins are Orlando and Indiana. The Lakers have wins over Denver (when the Nuggets were at full strength), the reigning NBA champion Mavs, and the Clippers. Plus, they played the Bulls to a 1-point game (Boston lost to the Bulls by 9 at home). Off back-to-back defeats, the Lakers will clearly be up for this game. They've won 3 in a row and five of their last six in Boston during the regular season. Take LA.

6* Florida Atlantic -123
The Key: The Denver Pioneers are 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pickem the last 3 seasons. Take the Owls.

6* Chattanooga -5
The Key: The Elon Phoenix are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Mocs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Take Chattanooga.

6* Mavericks +1.5
The Key: The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Mavericks are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog and 59-29-1 ATS in their last 89 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less.

6* Grizzlies -8
The Key: The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Memphis. The Grizzlies are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 home games, 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games as a favorite and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite.

6* Hawks -3
The Key: The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Pacers are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta. Also, the favorite is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.

6* Cavaliers +7
The Key: The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month (ESPN2) on Baylor -1.5
The Key: The Jayhawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less and 0-7 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. This high total suggests Kansas won't be getting many stops at the defensive end tonight. This is a game Baylor wants badly. It has lost 3 in a row to the Jayhawks and was absolutely embarrassed in the last two. I think it will be very tough for Kansas to put together the type of effort it need to win here, especially after such a deflating loss to Mizzou. Baylor will be the more focused and hungrier team. Bet the Bears.

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Bucks -7
The Key: The Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games when matched up against a a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the Suns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games when up against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Suns are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Lay the points as the rested Bucks handle the Suns at home.

6* Villanova -7.5
The Key: Providence has lost its last 5 on the road by an average of 14.2 points. The Friars are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

6* Clemson -7.5
The Key: Maryland is 0-4 in true road games this season, losing these games by an average of 9.0 points. The Terrapins are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

6* ESPN Big Monday CA$H COW on Texas A&M +2.5
The Key: Texas A&M has quietly gone 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games versus conference foes and 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games. The Aggies are also on a 4-0 ATS run versus team that check in with a winning percentage above 60%. Texas is just 1-7 when playing away from home this season and 1-8 ATS in its last 9 matchups at Texas A&M.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies -1
The Key: San Antonio is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last 6 meetings at Memphis. In addition, the Grizzlies are on a 10-2-1 ATS run in the 13 overall meetings in the series. The Spurs snapped a 5-game skid in Memphis a week ago, but the Grizzlies are an impressive 25-10 ATS in their last 35 when out for revenge for a same season loss. Take the Grizzlies.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma +5
The Key: Besides this being a letdown spot for Missouri following Saturday's thrilling win over Kansas, we find that Oklahoma has either won or lost by 4 points or less in each of its last 7 home games against the Tigers. Expect this trend to continue tonight.

7* Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Patriots -2.5
The Key: The Patriots lost the regular season meeting by 4 points as the Giants scored a touchdown with 15 seconds remaining. New England, which outgained the Giants 438-361 in that game, was done in by 4 turnovers. Considering the Pats have only committed 2 or more turnovers 5 times all season (the Giants have committed 2 or more 8 times), I like their chances in this revenge spot. The Pats are an impressive 29-10 ATS when out for revenge for a same season loss against an opponent since 1992, and they are 13-3 ATS in this situation since Belichick took over in 2000, winning those games by an average of 9.5 points. Expect the Patriots to have their revenge.

7* Super Bowl "Total" Blowout on Giants/Patriots Over 53
The Key: Just 31 total points were scored the last time these two met in the Super Bowl and only 44 total points were tallied in this year's regular-season meeting. Yet, odds makers opened with a line of 55.5 points. This tells me they want the money coming in on the Under. We won't oblige them. New England is 7-0 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 OVER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Also, the Giants are 9-1 OVER vs. incredible offensive teams scoring 29 or more points/game under coach Coughlin. After going scoreless in the first half in this season's matchup, the Giants and Patriots combined for 44 points in the second half. Don't expect another scoreless half of football. Their second half output tells me they are capable of crushing this number.

6* Montana State +7
The Key: This is a big rivalry game and last year's 21-point home loss to Montana cannot be sitting well with State. The elevated total suggests this game will be played at Montana State's tempo. This is significant because Montana is just 3-11 ATS in a road game when the total is 135 to 139.5 under coach Tinkle. We'll take the points.

6* Toledo +5
The Key: The Buffalo Bulls are just 1-5 ATS in the last 6 in this series. Plus, the underdog has covered the number in 8 of the last 11 meetings between these two MAC foes.

6* Denver -1.5
The Key: The Denver Pioneers have been, and will continue to be, a force to be reckoned with at home, where they are 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less (or pickem) over the last 3 seasons.

6* Kansas State -11
The Key: Texas A&M is 0-4 in true road games this season, losing those contests by an average of 12.0 points. Plus, K-State is 7-0 at home in this series since 1998, winning those games by an average score of 77.0 to 61.0.

7* Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year on Southern Illinois +2
The Key: An 18-point loss at Evansville in late December is all the motivation Southern Illinois will need Saturday. Expect a much different result in this meeting as the Salukis are 12-2 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 home games in the series. The Salukis are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, and the home team is 15-5-2 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Home court has been huge in this matchup, and I fully expect this trend to continue.

6* James Madison -4
The Key: We were all over Delaware Wednesday and we cashed in our Colonial Athletic Association Game of the Year as they upset George Mason. We'll go against the Blue Hens here as they are just 5-16-2 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS win.

6* LSU -4
The Key: The LSU Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Razorbacks, meanwhile, are a miserable 2-12 ATS in their last 14 lined road games.

7* NBA Line Mistake Game of the Month on Grizzlies +9
The Key: Odds makers have overinflated this line because the Grizzlies just played last night, but this team has been the best in the NBA in back-to-backs, going 20-4 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. The fact Memphis has lost the first two meetings in the season series also bodes well for us considering it is 18-8 ATS when playing with double revenge since the beginning of last season. As you recall, OKC knocked Memphis out of the playoffs last year. The Grizzlies will be looking to make a major statement here and should be able to keep this one easily within the generous number.

6* Rockets -6.5
The Key: I'm fading the Suns on the road against a motivated Rockets squad that will be hungry to end a 2-game skid. The Suns are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600 and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Rockets are 8-4 ATS at home this season and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

6* Raptors -4.5
The Key: The Raptors fit perfectly into a system that has been money in the bank the last 5 seasons. Playing on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) that are out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to a foe, and are coming off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll take the Raptors.

6* Kings +3.5
The Key: Portland has really struggled outside the Rose Garden to the tune of 3-8 SU and ATS. The Blazers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford -14
The Key: Off 3 straight losses (all on the road), the Cardinal will show no mercy back on their home floor this evening. ASU has been a pushover on the road in Pac-12 Conference action, taking 17-point losses to Arizona and UCLA, a 15-point loss to Colorado and a 21-point defeat to Utah. The Sun Devils are only 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games. I'll lay the points with a hungry Stanford squad that is 11-1 at home on the season.