Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on CHICAGO. These teams recently met at Milwaukee. The Bucks won by nine. Playing at home, I expect the Bulls to be even more competitive. With a very high O/U line, note that Chicago is 6-2 ATS the past eight times it had an O/U line of 230 or greater. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS on the season, after allowing 115 or more points. They're also 3-0 ATS when off a loss by six or less. The Bucks have seen four of five decided by single digits. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO. The Magic are playing well right now. They beat the Spurs last time out and hammered the 76ers in their previous game. Thats three wins in their past four and they've hit triple-digits in scoring in five straight. While the Wizards have fared well as underdogs, I like how the Magic match up against them. Playing at home, I believe they'll have the advantage. With an O/U line in the low/mid 220s, note that the Magic are 9-5-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. During that span, they're also 17-6-2 after scoring 110 or more points in b2b games. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win here. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. The Saints were upset by lowly Atlanta last time out. Many will expect them to immediately bounce back and blow out Tampa. Easier said than done. The Bucs may be just 3-5. However, one of those wins came in their last game and four of those five losses came by seven points or less. (The other was by 11.) In other words, they were right there in every game and the record could easily be better. One of those close losses was at New Orleans in early October. Thats noteworthy as the Bucs are 5-0 ATS the past five times that they were attempting to avenge a same season loss. With the Saints 0-4 ATS their last four, when off a divisional loss, I'm grabbing the points with the revenge-minded Bucs. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. We're getting some extra line value with the Pacers due to the fact that they played yesterday. The Pacers don't typically mind playing the second of b2b games though. They're 17-12 ATS (16-13 SU) when doing so the past 2+ seasons. The only time that they did so this season, they won by 15 points. Plus, prior to last night, they had two nights off. So, they're not playing a 3-in-4 situation. In other words, I'm not too worried about the b2b spot and am happy with the extra line value its provided. As for last night, though they didn't cover, I liked the effort I saw from the Pacers. They were diving for balls right up until the closing seconds. Since dropping their home opener, the Pacers have played great here, winning five straight. While the Bucks are indeed a tough team, they're only 2-4 ATS as road favorites. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. The Seahawks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off to an 0-2 start, the Wildcats are going to be in an angry mood. This is an experienced and talented Davidson team, one with big expectations on the season. This has been a good role for the Wildcats over the years. They're 16-8-2 ATS (25-1 SU) the past 26 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -15.5 to -18 range. That includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark their last three in that role. Even better, during that span, the Wildcats are a perfect 8-0 ATS if they'd scored 25 or fewer points in the first half of their previous game. The Wildcats won by 27, as -11 point favorites, the last time these teams met here. Expect another blowout.

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Both teams earned impressive close wins last week. The Steelers upset the Rams while the Browns, in Hunts' first game, eked out a win against the Bills. Playing at home with no travel on a short week, more desperate than their guests, I expect the Browns to be the team which follows it up. Needless to say, its been a very disappointing season for Browns' fans. This is still a highly talented team though, one picked by many to go deep into the playoffs. Even if it doesn't ultimately amount to them getting anywhere, a win against the Steelers on National Television will go a long way to ease the suffering of the faithful. Last year, they earned a tie in the game here. This year, Rothlisberger on the bench, the Browns take the next step and knock off the pesky Steelers, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Bulls hammered the Golden Flashes, at Buffalo, last season. Playing at home, I expect a much better effort from the Golden Flashes this year. While they've dropped three in a row, the Golden Flashes continue to play hard; they've covered three of four and four of six. Admittedly, the Bulls have looked impressive in beating up some bad teams lately. While they did have last week off but this still marks their second straight on the road, the first time they've played in that situation. Also, note that the Bulls are just 1-4 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off a win of 28 or more. Conversely, the Golden Flashes are 6-3 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b conf. losses, 3-1 ATS when off three straight conf. losses. While I like the Flashes' chances of an outright win, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Hawks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Blazers got 60 from Lillard last time out but still lost. They're going to be in an angry mood here and they'll provide Lillard with a lot more support. The Hawks have lost b2b games and four of their last five. All the losses came by a minimum of nine points. The Blazers have beaten the Hawks each of the last three meetings. They won those games by 20, 9 and 21 points. The Blazers know they need to take advantage of this very winnable game. Their next game is on the road, then they host the defending champs, then they go on a lengthy road trip. In other words, winning here is critical. Expect them to bounce back with a double-digit win.

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. With Mahomes expected to come back, we're getting extra line value with the Titans. Its not always easy for a team when a star returns though. For one, the star can sometimes be rusty. However, regardless of whether or not thats the case, there can still be a natural letdown, as opposed to the expected boost, when a star comes back. The reality is that the Chiefs were playing really hard for Moore. They beat the Vikings last time out and were right there with the Packers in their previous game. So, QB wasn't really the problem. The Chiefs' weakness, as I see it, is their run defense.  Indeed, KC ranks 28th in rushing yards per attempt and just 29th in the league in terms of rushing yards allowed. Only Cleveland, Cincy and Miami are worse. That spells trouble against a Titan offense with a capable ground game. The Chiefs have seen six of their last seven games decided by seven or fewer points. Meanwhile, all four Titan home games have been decided by seven or fewer points, the last two here both decided by four or less. Speaking of tight games, the last two meetings between these teams were decided by 1 and 2 points. In what could well be another close one, I'm grabbing all the generous points. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. When these instate rivals met last season, the Redhawks hammered the Eagles by an 88-68 margin. Two seasons ago, Seattle won by a similar margin, 84-65. If they can stay healthy, the Eagles should have a good season in the Big Sky. However, they're still not ready to knock off Seattle. Note that Eastern Washington was 1-9 in non-conf. play last season. Seattle, on the other hand, was 10-4 in non-conf. action, outscoring teams by a 78.4 to 68.9 ppg. The Redhawks are going to be in an angry mood after getting blown out at Washington State. Needless to say, this is a significant step down in class. Having faced the Cougars intense defense should serve them well. The Redhawks, who returned four starters from last season, know that they've got a brutal non-conf. schedule and that they can't afford to squander this opportunity. The Redhawks, 31-9 their last 40 at home, are 3-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, after a road loss of 20 or more points. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I believe that the Gamecocks are catching the Mountaineers at exactly the right time. Prior to last week, Appalachian State had a perfect record, a national ranking and huge dreams. All that changed with an upset loss against Georgia Southern last week. The common line of thinking is that previously undefeated teams tend to immediately bounce back after their first loss. However, I've often found that the opposite is true. Of course, winning this game was never going to be easy for the Mountaineers, regardless of what happened against Georgia Southern. The Gamecocks got their confidence back with a 24-7 win last time out and now they're getting some injured players back. With Texas A&M and Clemson on deck, this is absolutely a must win. Expect them to rise to the occasion, moving to 4-0 ATS as home favorites. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs got back on track, snapping a 2-game slide with a solid 121-112 win over OKC, last time out. I feel that they're catching the Celtics at the right time and I look for the Spurs to carry the momentum of their victory over the Thunder into today's game. The Spurs handled the Celtics last season winning 115-96 and 120-111. They're 72-20 here the past 2+ seasons. During the same span, Boston is 55-43 on the road. The Celtics are off an emotional win against Kemba Walker's old team and are now playing the final game of a road trip. They're just 6-10 ATS the past 2+ seasons, off b2b road wins. I'm going with the Spurs. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Heat have gotten off to a great start but I expect them to stumble at this difficult venue. Note that the Heat are an ugly 5-13-2 ATS the past 20 times that they were coming off a double-digit home win, just 1-6-2 ATS if that win came by 20 or more. Also, note that Miami's hot start has helped to keep this line a lot more reasonable than it could have otherwise been. Including a 103-87 blowout of the Heat here last season, a game where they were laying -9.5 points, the Nuggets are 66-17 SU as a home favorite. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. Both these teams are young. However, the Bonnies' young players are a lot more talented and have a lot more experience. While the Bobcats return just one starter, St. Bonaventure returns a trio of starting sophomores and will have a big edge in the backcourt.  Note that the Bobcats are 7-16-1 ATS (4-20 SU) as road underdogs the past couple of seasons while the Bonnies were 13-7 ATS (18-2 SU).

Coach Schmidt said this of his Bonnies: "... confidence is a big factor for these guys. Getting off to a good start is paramount … " The Bobcats will provide the Bonnies with the perfect opportunity for that good start. Expect Schmidt's team to make the most of it, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way and pulling away for a blowout win. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. With Barkley seemingly back to full health, many will be quick to back the Giants, getting points at home. Count me out. The Cowboys are favored for good reason. While the Giants allow more than 27 ppg, the Cowboys allow just 17.7. On the other side, the Giants score less than 20 per game while the Cowboys score more than 27. They've beaten the Giants five straight times. Three of those wins came by double-digits, all but one came by at least seven points. Arguably, the gap is bigger now than it has been in the past, too. The Giants have lost four straight. Their last losses came against the likes of Arizona and Detroit. The Cowboys, got back on track by trashing the Eagles 37-10 last time out. Every one of their victories has come by double-digits. In addition to the 27-point win over the Eagles, the Cowboys won by 25 and 10, while beating these same Giants by 18. While the Giants are off a tough loss, the Cowboys are off a bye. They've been money (23-12 ATS L35) in that situation over the years. They're a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the past five times that they'd lost three of their previous four. Expect them to improve on those stats with another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Rockets have been terrible at the betting window so far this season. I don't expect that to change here. While the Grizzlies had Sunday off, the Rockets are off a game at Miami. They gave up 46 points in the first quarter alone in that one. The Rockets are the end of a road trip. All three games here at Memphis have been decided by single digits. Speaking of close games, the Rockets' last visit here resulted in a 1-point game. In what figures to be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Patriots have obviously gotten off to a great start. However, I expect them to receive their toughest test of the season yet on Sunday night. The Ravens are 8-4-1 ATS as underdogs the past 2+ seasons, winning six of those outright. Long known for its defense, Baltimore gives nothing away on offense in this matchup. The Ravens have scored 23 or more every game, averaging 30.6. In their three home games, they're averaging 444 yards. Overall, they average 434.9 yards per game. Thats more than the Pats, who average 370.1 yards per game, 340.1 on the road. While the Ravens may be 1-4-1 ATS their last six, their last 5-1 ATS the past six times that they'd failed to cover the spread in four, or five, of their previous six games. Expect AT LEAST another cover here. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Great start for the Suns, obviously. However, I don't believe this young team is quite ready to be laying points on the road. Even with the recent win in SF, the Suns are still just 19-65 on the road the past 2+ seasons. Its hard to win away from home. Note that the Suns are 1-6 the last seven times that they were off a double-digit win as an underdog. The Grizzlies beat Brooklyn their last game on this floor and they're coming in confident that this is a matchup they can win. The last meeting here resulted in a 117-96 win for the Grizzlies. Expect them to score the 'upset' here. 

I'm playing on OLE MISS. Auburn is obviously the more talented team. Off last week's loss, many will expect the Tigers to bounce back with a blowout win. However, while I respect the Tigers, I believe this will prove to be a far tougher game than is being suggested by the line. Last week's loss at LSU was huge. Note that Auburn is 4-10-1 ATS its last 15, off a loss of three or fewer points. Up next, after a bye, is Georgia, another huge game. With this game sandwiched in between those two huge game and with the Tigers off three straight SEC road games, its going to be difficult for the Tigers to "get up." Four of the Rebels' five losses have come by 11 points or less. They're 3-1 ATS off a loss. While the Tigers are still thinking about what might have been - and whats to come ahead, the Rebels are off a bye and are going to be extremely focused on trying to get themselves a signature win. Look for the Rebels to come ready to play and for them to give their hosts all they can handle the entire way. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. While I respect the Utes, I believe they're going to run into a problem on Saturday afternoon. The last three games in this series have had scores of 10-3, 21-7 and 33-30, all in favor of the Huskies. Washington, 7-1 SU in November the past couple of seasons, is coming off a bye. They've had a full extra week off than the Utes. The Huskies could easily have a better record as they lost by one vs. Cal and by four vs. Oregon. The Utes did win big in their last game on the road. That was at Oregon State though. Prior to that, in their previous road game, they lost at USC. While I'll happily grab the points, I say the Huskies find a way of winning a close one here. 

I'm playing on UCONN. Admittedly, the Huskies aren't the best team around. However, playing at home on National TV, they're good enough to hang within four touchdowns of Navy. The Midshipmen are just 2-4 ATS as road favorites the past couple of seasons. The Huskies played Houston tough here in their last home game, losing by seven as a 21.5 point underdog. Then, they gained some confidence by beating up on the Minutemen. Look for them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game, covering the big number and improving to 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were home underdogs of greater than 14 points. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. You've probably heard about Garoppolo's impressive record as a starter. Thats only partly him. Football is a team game and the 49ers have been a very good team. Still, this is asking a lot. Here, they're playing on the road, playing on a short week, against a divisional opponent and laying more than a touchdown. They've also got a huge showdown vs. Seattle on deck. Note that the 49ers are just 6-11 ATS the past 17 times that they were road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. During that span, the Cards were 9-6 ATS as home underdogs in the 7.5 to 10 range. The Cards have dominated the 49ers in recent seasons, including five straight wins here at Arizona. With the last three meetings here all having been decided by a field goal, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The home team has won six straight in this series. The last three games played here in San Antonio saw the Spurs win by scores of 108-103, 131-118 and 116-105. For this one, not only do they have the venue in their favor but the Spurs also have the schedule in their favor. While they had Sunday off, the Blazers played at Dallas. Knowing they hit the road after this, look for the Spurs to take care of business on their home floor here, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on KC. While the Packers are off to a nice start, I expect them to have their hands full this evening. The Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 ATS the past four times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range and they're 5-1-1 ATS their last seven as underdogs overall. True, Mahomes remains out. However, I truly believe that they can win with Moore behind center. Moore is a veteran and he is going to relish this opportunity. Moore has a great coach and is surrounded by plenty of weapons. Expect the Chiefs to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST a cover on Sunday night. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The T-Wolves are off a hot (2-0) start and this game sets up very nicely for them. While Minnesota had yesterday off, Miami is off an OT win at Milwaukee. I say that OT game catches up with them here, against a Minnesota team playing its home opener. Note that the Heat are just 15-25-3 ATS over the past couple of seasons, when off two or more consecutive ATS wins. Schedule and venue in their favor, look for the Wolves to improve to 9-5 ATS the last 14 times that they were coming off a double-digit road win. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. With Matt Ryan out, we're getting a lot of extra point with the Falcons. I feel thats providing excellent value. Matt Schaub has been around for years and knows how to win. Pete Carroll acknowledged as much saying: "They're explosive on offense. They got highlight players that we recognize and know. The running backs, receivers, the tight end, the QB. Matt Schaub is a renowned backup quarterback that has come off the bench for teams for years. He's got a winning record if he's the one that plays. Danny coaching the defense and Bob Sutton, a friend of ours that we know for years from KC and all that and years beyond. I have a lot of respect for what’s going on. I know, just watching the film and watching what we're up against, they're going to cause problems for us...." While the Hawks have indeed thrived on the road, they're off a 30-16 loss and two of their three road games have been decided by four or fewer points. An early game at Atlanta, for this West Coast based team, is not going to be as easy as many will be expecting. The Hawks lost by 16 last time they played here and then the teams played a 3-point game at Atlanta next. Grab the points and expect a motivated effort from the Falcons to bring them to 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were off a game where they scored 14 or less.

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. Big game for both teams. In my opinion, its even bigger for the Aggies. I absolutely expect them to be ready. Indeed, unlike other teams and coaches, Coach Anderson prepares for this game all season long. He was quoted as saying: "Camp, spring ball, bye weeks, the day after Christmas. Whenever we find an opportunity to squeeze in a few moments of Air Force, we'll absolutely do it. You have to in my opinion." That gives Utah State over other Air Force opponents, as the Aggies are more prepared for the Falcons' unique attack. I like the fact that Air Force is off a late game at Hawaii last week. Thats a long way to go and something many of these kids aren't familiar with. The Aggies are playing with a lot of confidence. They've only lost twice this season. The first was by three points, at Wake Forest. The second was at LSU. No shame in that. They already responded to the LSU loss by crushing Nevada (36-10) last week. The Aggies have won at San Diego State. So, they know they can win on the road. They beat the Falcons by 10 last year after the previous season's game was decided by a field goal. With Air Force just 6-16 ATS over the years, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range, in a game where I expect the underdog to win outright, I'm happy to grab the points.

I'm playing on DUKE. I successfully played against the Blue Devils last week. So, I wasn't surprised to see them lose, at Virginia. However, I like how they match up - and how this game sets up - much better this week. While the Blue Devils got hammered at UVA, the Tar Heels suffered a far tougher loss. They fell 43-41 to the Hokies, at Blacksburg. In case you missed it, that was a wild 6-OT affair, the longest game in ACC history. To end up on the wrong side of it will be very tough to bounce back from. (UNC is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS its last seven off a conference road loss.) Note that Duke also played at Lane Stadium; the Blue Devils crushed the Hokies 45-10. So, they know how to win on the road. Also, note that Duke is already 2-0 off a loss this season, winning 45-13 and 41-23. The Blue Devils are 8-2 ATS their last 10 as road underdogs and they're a perfect 3-0 ATs the past three times that they allowed 42 or more points in their previous game. The Blue Devils have had their way in this series recently. Catching the Heels at right time, expect that to continue Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. I won with the champs in their opening game. However, I expect them to face a tougher test here. Off a road loss at Philly, the Celtics are going to be extremely hungry to win their home opener. History says they'll have a great shot at this series has been dominated by the home team in recent years. The Raptors have won eight straight meetings, at Toronto. Meanwhile, the Celtics have beaten the Raptors five straight times, here at Boston. Those wins came by an average of 6.5 points. Wednesday's loss notwithstanding, the Celtics have been strong in divisional games overall. Look for them to improve to 9-3 SU the last 12 times that they were off a divisional loss, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. What is the world coming to? The Clippers are favored, on the road, against the Warriors. That is indeed the state of the union, in case you haven't been paying attention. Kawhi's debut was everything the Clipper fans were hoping for. Clearly, he's a special player and this is a talented team. That said, they're not going to win every game. Curry, Green and co. are playing on their home floor and they've got payback (against Kawhi) on their minds. They're going to be highly determined to start the season with a win and get rid of the bad taste in their mouths from last year's finals. True, Durant has moved on. Remember, they won a title without him. True, Klay is out. Paul George is out for LA though, too. The addition of D'Angelo Russel (29 points in 28 mins in final preseason game) is not insignificant. Playing on their homecourt, I say the defending Western Conf. champs get it done. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Last year, when these teams met at Dallas, the Cougars were ranked #18 in the country. Favored by two touchdowns, they lost outright. Now, we've got a role reversal. This time, its the Mustangs who enter the game with the national ranking while listed as the road favorite. Like last year, I believe that the home underdog has a real shot at the outright win. While every game is now crucial for the Mustangs, while playing on a short week, it might be easy to look past Houston and ahead to Memphis. Either way, I expect them to have their hands full. Needless to say, the Cougars haven't forgotten last year. While this season has been a disappointment, a win tonight will do a great deal to salvage it. They're going to go all out to get it. I played on the Cougars the last time these teams met here and they rewarded me with a 35-22 win and cover. With the Mustangs just 1-6 ATS the past seven times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 63 or greater, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. By the end of recent years, even die-hard Phoenix fans start losing faith. However, every season brings new hope. I like the offseason moves that the Suns made and the building is going be full of electricity. Booker is dealing with a minor finger issue but says he's fine and has been shooting normally. I expect him to be the best player on the floor. The Suns beat the Kings 115-111 the last time these teams faced each other on this floor and they've taken two of the last three meetings here. Booker didn't even play in that 115-111 win. Instead, the Suns got huge games from Oubre and Ayton, both still with the team. Oubre had 26 points in that game including a 1-handed rebound jam with about 10 seconds to play. Ayton had 17 points and 12 boards. The Kings committed a season-high 26 turnovers. You look at the Suns' projected starting lineup (Rubio, Oubre, Booker, Saric, Ayton) with guys like Frank Kaminsky coming off the bench and there's more talent there than many realize. Expect them to start the season with a victory. 

I'm playing Washington on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) Obviously, Cole had an amazing season and the Astros have a great team. Scherzer is no slouch either though and the Nats are on a special roll of their own. While we have to go back several years, Scherzer's teams are 4-1 his last five against Houston, 2-0 his last two. Cole, meanwhile, is 1-2 his last three against Washington. The two losses came by scores of 6-1 and 6-0, too. While the Astros are 11-9 their last 20 against NL teams, the Nats are 14-6 their last 20 against teams from the American League. With runs likely to be at a premium, every extra run counts. I feel that getting an extra +1.5 of them for this price, with Scherzer on the mound, is providing excellent value. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors are champs but feel that they aren't getting any respect. With Kawhi having moved on, few are giving them a chance of repeating. However, as Lowry stated, " “We know what we've accomplished. Who cares what other people think." I believe that the champs are going to be a on a mission to silence the critics. They're 7-1 their last eight against the Pelicans, most recently a 127-104 win last March. Motivated to show the world that they were/are more than Kawhi, I expect them to start the season with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. While the Patriots have been making it look easy, I expect them to finally receive a test on Monday night. The Jets, who covered at New England a month ago, come in confident. Last time out, they beat Dallas outright, a 24-22 win. Note that the Jets are 2-0 ATS the last couple of times that they were off a win off three or fewer points. During that span, they're also 6-2 ATS when avenging a loss of 14 or more points. Some might be surprised to learn that the Pats are just 6-12 ATS their last 18 as road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. Look for them to have their hands full in this one. 

*10 Non-Divisional GOM on Bears. I'm playing on CHICAGO. Naturally, I respect the Saints. They came through big for me two weeks ago against Tampa. Last week, their defense helped me cash an important 'under,' allowing just six points and 226 total yards. Still, this is a very tough spot. Playing the second of b2b road games, I expect the travel and absence of Brees to finally catch up with them. Note that Kamara, currently questionable, appears unlikely to be ready, as he has yet to practice. Either way, the Bears are going to be in a hostile mood after blowing the game against the Raiders. They've had two weeks to prepare for this one. The Bears, who hope to have Trubisky back, are tough at home. Look for them to improve to 14-5-1 ATS their last 20 here. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. While the 49ers are off to a fantastic start, I believe that this will prove to be a very tough spot. This is a West-Coast based team, playing an early game, its second straight on the road, while coming off a huge win over a division rival. Off to a perfect start, it'll be easy for the 49ers to start patting themselves on the back a bit. It may not have been overly impressive, but the Skins did get a win last game. That gives them some positive momentum coming in. With a pair of road games on deck, the Skins know they need to take advantage of the scheduling advantage here. They're 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) their last five against the NFC West. Expect them to give their guests all they can handle. 

I'm playing on UTAH. The Utes are the superior team. They're playing at home. They're on a roll. Importantly, they've also got payback on their minds. Not only did the Sun Devils beat Utah 38-20 at ASU last season but they also beat the Utes by a 30-10 score, right here, the previous season. Utah, which was favored by -10 points for that game, hasn't forgotten. The Utes have only lost one game this season. That was at USC. Their other five games have all resulted in victories and ALL have come by more than 17 points. While the Sun Devils are off b2b upset wins, they're 0-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b SU victories when listed as underdogs. The Utes are 16-9 ATS their last 25 as favorites. Determined to avenge the recent losses, exepct them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, en route to another convincing win. 

I'm playing on UNLV. The Bulldogs got hammered last time out, a 42-24 loss at Air Force. They're 1-2 ATS off a conference loss the past couple of seasons and they haven't won a game by more than 14 points this year. The Rebels bring some positive momentum into this game and they'll be confident. Last time out, playing on the road against an SEC team and listed as 16-point underdogs, they won 34-10. Granted, it was Vanderbilt. Still, that was an impressive win. The Rebels are quietly 10-4 ATS their last 14 as road underdogs. The Rebels won outright, as 3-TD underdogs, the last time that they played here. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on LA. The Steelers have been good for so long that its hard for many to accept reality; this is currently a bad team. Indeed, the Steelers have been bad on both sides of the ball - and on special teams. Granted, the Chargers haven't been much better. They're working with a lot more though, while also playing at home - and I believe that their season can still be salvaged. Of course, with b2b road games on deck, that requires that the Chargers take care of business here. I expect them to do just that. The Chargers have failed to covers in three of their past four. They're a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in that situation (after having failed to cover 3 of previous 4) the past couple of seasons though. During that span, they're also 4-0-1 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 35.5 to 42 range. Expect the Chargers to take advantage of their banged-up and struggling guests, bouncing back with a much-needed, momentum-building double-digit win. 

I'm playing on UTSA. While I successfully backed the Blazers in their last game, I feel that they're laying too many points this week. Last week's game was at home. This week, the Blazers are on the road. Off last week's big win and facing a team which they hammered last season, I believe that the Blazers will be ripe for a letdown this week. That'll prove costly though. UTSA is off its best game, arguably, in recent memory, a 26-16 win at UTEP. While the Blazers will be without their starting running back, the Roadrunners ran for more than 300 yards last week. The offensive line dominated and true freshman Sincere McCormick put up a program record 189 yards. The Roadrunners deep and experienced defensive line is also off an excellent game. The Roadrunners, who brought back considerably more starters from last year than did the Blazers, haven't forgotten last year's 52-3 shellacking at UAB. They played the Blazers tough here the previous season though, a 24-19 game. Note that UAB is just 10-19-1 ATS the past 30 times it was listed as a road favorite. Hungry for a "signature win," expect the Roadrunners to give their guests all they can handle once again. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. Every year, some suggest that this will be the year that the Pats take a step back. It never seems to happen. They keep rolling, year after year. Here we are, October 10th and they're already 5-0. Three of the five wins came by more than 16 points, too. Is it really that easy? I don't think so. With all due respect to the Pats, they've faced a pretty soft early schedule. The Steelers, Redskins and Dolphins, the three teams that they beat by more than 16, are a combined 1-13. The Jets, another team they faced, are also 0-4. So, thats four opponents which are a combined 1-17. The only team with a decent record (Buffalo) gave the Pats all they could handle and lost by only six. The Giants are below .500 However, they do at least have a couple of wins under their belt. The Giants faced Buffalo, New England's hardest opponent to date. But, unlike the Pats, the Giants have also faced other winning teams like the Vikings and Cowboys. Off a sub-par performance against Minnesota, I expect them to bounce back with a much better effort here. Note that the Giants are 9-3 ATS their last 12 after scoring 14 or fewer points in their previous game, 6-2 ATS when off a double-digit home loss. I believe that the line is a bit inflated and I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. The Bucs were sure impressive last week. Nobody could have imagined them going to LA and dropping 55 points on the Rams. Impressive as that was, its important not to over-react to one game. I feel that has happened here. If the Bucs hadn't been so impressive, they'd be a bigger underdog here. In other words, last week's result has worked in our favor, in terms of line value. (The Saints were -10 for last year's game here and -7 the previous season.) Keep in mind that the Bucs also gave up 40 points. They've now allowed more than 30 in three of their four games. This is also a tough travel and scheduling spot for them. Off the win at the West Coast, they now play an early game in the Eastern Time Zone. Its their second straight road game and third road game in the past four weeks. Last season, when playing the second of b2b road games, the Bucs were 0-3. (One of those b2b spots had a bye in between the games.) Each of those losses came by a minimum of five points - and they didn't have to fly from the West Coast the previous week. The Saints are off a dominant defensive effort against an elite team, holding Dallas to 10 points. While they won that one on the strength of their defense, they won the previous week's game on the strength of their offense. They've shown that they can win without Brees. The Bucs are 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) the last six times that they had won two of their previous three. They're also 1-4 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off a double-digit road win in a game where they were listed as underdogs of six or more points. The Saints, on the other hand, are now a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off an upset victory. They were also a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in October the past couple of seasons. Thats a combined 12-0. I expect them to keep on rolling, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on UAB. The Owls, now 0-5, are off a very tough loss last week. Fighting hard for its first win, Rice took LA Tech to OT last week. The Owls had a 14-7 lead at half. They were up 17-14 with less than two minutes remaining. They even held the lead (20-17) in OT. However, it was LA Tech which ultimately prevailed. While the Owls have battled, those are the type of losses that can be tough to recoved from, especially for a winless team starting to lose hope. I believe they're going to be susceptible to get blown out here. UAB is 3-0 ATS is last three off a conference loss and 7-1 ATS its last eight October games. The Blazers are also 11-3 ATS (14-0 SU!) their last 14 at home, as they have one of the longest home winning streaks around. Though they lost at WKU last week, the Blazers beat South Alabama by a score of 35-3 their last time on this field. The Blazers won 42-0 at Rice last season and 52-21 here the previous season. They're fully capable of bouncing back and blowing out a demoralized Owls team, once again. Expect them to do just that, keeping the streak in tact with another double-digit win. 

I'm playing Atlanta on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Off a tough loss yesterday, the Braves are going to be desperate in this one. This is a very talented and determined team and I expect them to bounce back with their best effort. While I do expect them to win outright, we already saw a 1-run game yesterday. In this type of series, the value of an extra +1.5 runs can't be overstated. Yes, Flaherty has been on a major roll - I won with the Cards (-1.5) the last time that he pitched. He hasn't been that dominant here at Atlanta though. His lone 2019 start here saw him allow three runs in six innings. A quality start but not outstanding. Note that he walked five in that game. Also, in his previous start here (09/18) he gave up five runs in 4 2/3 innings. Don't let his season stats fool you, Foltynewicz has been extremely stingy for some time now, as he's quietly gone 6-1 with a 2.65 ERA his last 10 starts. In his last home start, he tossed eight shutout innings. Last time he faced the Cards, he allowed a single unearned run through six complete, winning 5-2. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" from the desperate Braves. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I won with the Bengals last week and I'm coming right back with them again here. When you think of the Steelers' offense of recent seasons, you think of names like Rothlisberger, Bell and Brown. The Bengals won't have to face any of them. Bell has moved on. Brown is recently out of the league. Big Ben is hurt. The Steelers are off a very tough loss and off that loss, had to travel back from the West Coast. They're 0-3 on the season. The last two losses came by two and four points. Those can be difficult to bounce back from. The Bengals have now seen two of their three games decided by four or less. They lost by just three against a much better Pittsburgh team here last season. That makes it three of the past five meetings in the series which have been decided by four or fewer points, four of those five decided by a TD or less. The Bengals are now 13-5 ATS their last 18 on the road. In what should be another close one, grab the points. 

I'm playing ST. LOUIS on the run-line (-1.5 runs) The Cards need Flaherty for this one, rather than saving him for their first postseason start. I feel that they're in good hands, given that he's got an absolutely dominant 1.05 ERA since the All-Star Break. Holland, meanwhile, is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA as a starter this season. That likely means its Flaherty vs. a lot of Cubs' relievers. In 11 daytime starts this season, the Cards' starter has a 1.64 ERA, opposing batters hitting .197. I'll take Flaherty and the Cards to come through when they need to, winning this one by multiple runs. 

I'm playing on UTAH. While both teams lost last week, the Cougars' loss is going to be more difficult to bounce back from. In case you missed it WSU blew a 49-17 lead and went on to lose 67-63, the highest scoring game in Pac-12 history. Coach Leach commented: "Our guys got frantic and panicked. We collapsed in every phase of the game." Off that type of "collapse," I believe its going to difficult to play at this tough venue. The Utes have had an extra day of preparation (Utah played 9/20 while WSU played 9/21.) The Utes have payback on their minds as they lost at WSU last season and as the Cougars beat them here two years ago. The Utes are 8-3 ATS (10-1 SU) their last 11, as home favorites, 2-0 ATS as home favorites of seven on less. They're also 4-1 ATS their last five off a road loss, 3-0 ATS off a road loss when they were favored. Expect them to improve on those stats Saturday. 

I'm playing on NEBRASKA. Last week's results have helped to provide us with excellent value with the home underdog. The Buckeyes absolutely destroyed Miami Ohio while the Huskers barely eked out a win against Illinois. However, Illinois is actually a pretty decent team, at the least, the Illini are much stronger than Miami Ohio. Plus, Nebraska was on the road, while Ohio State was at home. I like the fact that the Huskers rallied to pull it off last week and that they had to fight to do it. While Ohio State has yet to be tested, the Huskers have now been involved in two close ones (both on the road) and that close game experience figures to serve them well. (Both home games have resulted in double-digit wins.) Speaking of close games, you may recall that Ohio State was a 17-point favorite for last year's game. However, it was the Huskers who were up 21-16 at halftime. The Buckeyes managed to escape with a 36-31 win but the cover was never in doubt for Nebraska. Its the first evening game for Ohio State all season; Lincoln can be a tough place to play and the crowd is going to be extremely fired up. Note that its the first ESPN "Gameday" at Lincoln in more than a decade. The Buckeyes are 0-2 ATS the past couple of times that they were off three consecutive covers. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way. 

I'm playing on ASU. Both these teams have been involved in some close ones lately. Cal is off a big emotional/controversial win over an SEC opponent in the Eastern time zone. The Bears hung on to win by eight. However, the game down to the final play. Note that Cal is just 1-3 ATS its last four off a road upset. The Bears previous two games were decided by six (against North Texas) and by just one, at Washington. Even their game against Cal Davis was relatively close, 14-point win. Likewise, ASU is off b2b 3-point games. I see another potentially close one, which makes the points very attractive. The Sun Devils have won at Michigan State. That was in front of more than 70,000 fans and a national TV audience. They're not afraid of the moment. Look for ASU to give its hosts all they can handle once again, improving to 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 as a road underdog.

I'm playing CINCINNATI on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Mahle may not have a great record, OK its pretty bad, but he's fighting for a spot in next year's rotation and he's coming off a gem. Last time out, he limited the Cubs to a single hit through six innings. He's got a relatively respectable 1.30 WHIP here at home. While Lyles may be having success with Milwaukee, lets not completely forget that he had a 9.57 ERA his final nine starts with Pittsburgh; the last time he faced the Reds he lost 11-6. Mahle, who won't have to contend with Yelich, has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all three career starts against the Brewers. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" for the home team. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Lions are going to find an angry and hungry Eagles team. Philly knows it let one get away against Atlanta. The Eagles also know that four of their next five come on the road. In other words, they can ill afford to drop this one. Undefeated (1-0-1) through two games and with three of their next four at home, the Lions may not be feeling the same sense of urgency. True, the Eagles are a bit banged-up at the receiver position. However, thats an area where they're pretty deep and this is a team which likes to spread it around. Even if Jackson and/or Jeffery are out, Wentz still has the likes of Ertz and Agholor to work with. The Lions may have won last week but they still scored only 13 points. That won't cut it here. Note that they're just 1-4 SU/ATS the past five times that they scored 14 or less in their previous game. During that span, the Eagles are 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) when off a loss of six points or less. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win on Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on UCLA. The Bruins' tough start has led to an extremely generous line, one which I feel is providing us with excellent value. When these teams last met, the Cougars were double-digit favorites but won by only six. I look for this one to also prove close. The Bruins first two games were both decided by 10 points or less. Sure, Oklahoma beat them by more than that. However, I don't put WSU in the class of the Sooners. Keep in mind this is an experienced UCLA team, one chomping at the bit to turn its season around. The Cougars, who won by only seven last time out, have a huge game against Utah on deck. Look for the Bruins to provide a much tougher game than many will be expecting, moving to 3-0 ATS their last three, after trailing by 17 or more points at the end of the first half of their previous game. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Cowboys have been living a lie. Their games have come against Oregon State, McNeese State and Tulsa. To their credit, they've taken care of business. However, the fact remains that they were double-digit favorites for each of those games, despite two of them coming on the road. Now, however, they're stepping up in class considerably while playing their third road game in the past four weeks. I expect reality to set in. While the Longhorns came up short vs. LSU, they rebounded by crushing Rice last game. They also hammered LA Tech in the first game. The Longhorns have a score to settle, as OSU has had their number of late. Back-to-back 3-point losses in the series have been particularly tough to swallow. This is a highly motivated Texas team, one which is 5-0 ATS its last five, off b2b non-conf. games. Expect them to get some payback, covering the relatively small number and moving to 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were a home faovrite of seven or less. 

I'm playing on TULANE. The Green Wave have a lot going for them here. They're off an absolute blowout (58-6) of Missouri State. That lopsided game allowed them to rest starters in the second half, preparing for this one. It was also at home, meaning no travel for the short week. On the other hand, Houston is off an emotional and hard-fought loss against Washington State. The Cougars left it all on the field for that one and may well experience a letdown because of. Note that they're 4-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, off an ATS cover, 0-1 ATS when off an ATS cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. Tulane is 9-4 ATS over the years, off a home blowout win of 28 or more. The home team has had the advantage in this series of late. Expect that to be the case again this evening, Tulane covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. The injury to QB Darnold has created plenty of value with the home underdog Jets. While they may have been a popular choice to win the Super Bowl, the Browns didn't look good at all in Week. Asking them to go on the road and to cover this many points is asking a lot. The Jets still have a bigtime back in Bell. Their defense was arguably much stronger than Cleveland's in Week 1. Speaking of the Browns' defense, Cleveland is missing some players on that side of the ball. Saftey Randall is out, as is linebacker Taylor. Defensive End Smith may still not play either, though he has returned to practice. Either way, I expect Siemian and the Jets offense to have some success. Though the Jets defense is missing a key player in Mosley, the entire unit figures to be fired up. Remember, their defensive coordinator Gregg Williams used to be the def. coordinator for Cleveland. Jets' safety Jamal Adams noted: "Obviously, he has a chip on his shoulder about this game. We're going to go out there and play for him. He's going to be all riled up.'' Desperate to avoid falling to 0-2, expect the Jets to give their guests all they can handle. 

I'm playing on WMU. Georgia State is off to a 2-0 start, including the upset of Tennessee, so is likely going to be a popular pick. However, I feel that the Broncos are favored for good reason and I expect them to bring the Panthers back down to earth. These same teams met at Georgia State last season. Despite playing on the road, the Broncos literally ran all over the Panthers, clearly outclassing them. For the game, they had a 294-58 edge in yards on the ground. They dominated in first downs and time of possession, en route to a decisive 34-15 win. While the win over the Vols was indeed impressive, giving up 42 points against Furman last week wasn't. With the Panthers just 1-8 SU/ATS the past nine times that they allowed 37 or more in their previous game, I'm laying the points and expecting another double-digit win for the Broncos. 

I'm playing on BC. Initially, it might seem funny to see the Lions listed as favorites here. After all, they're having a pretty tough season. However, on closer inspection, they're favored for good reason and this is an excellent spot for them to break through with a big win. The Lions covered at Montreal last week (5 point loss) after losing by just three against Hamilton in their previous game. Ottawa, on the other hand, has lost its last three by a minimum of 14 points. Last time out, they lost 46-17 to lowly Toronto. In its previous game, Ottawa lost 40-18. The Lions have had one more day of preparation time. They know that the same two teams will meet at Ottawa last week. Armed with this knowledge, look for them to step up and take care of business at home, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing MINNESOTA on the run-line (+1.5 runs). Gibson is back and I expect the mini break to have served him well. He's 8-3 with a 1.19 WHIP at home, much better than his 1.54 WHIP on the road. While Corbin has had a strong season overall, a closer look reveals that he's 4-5 with a 4.45 ERA on the road, compared to 7-2 with a 2.00 ERA at home. Also, he walked six batters in five innings last time out, which is rather disturbing. The Twins have been tough at home all year. Look for them to close out the homestand with AT LEAST the "run-line cover."

I'm playing TAMPA. Both teams are going to be hungry and both will be extremely anxious to avoid falling to 0-2. A close first half won't surprise. The Panthers managed only three points in the first half of last week's game here and were trailing 14-3 at the break. The Bucs got off to a better start, they were up 7-6 at the break of their game. Getting more than a field goal with the visitors for the first half, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. Admittedly, the Dolphins don't have the talent that their fans would like. However, Week 1 is a different animal. The Fish haven't written off their season yet and they'll be coming ready to play. With the betting public hearing about how bad the Dolphins are going to be, the line has climbed from its opener. Getting all those points, for the home opener, provides us with excellent value. Keep in mind that the Ravens have struggled in the road favorite role over the years. Look for Fitzpatrick, who beat out Rosen for the starting job in the preseason and who is starting for his eighth team (an NFL record) to keep the Dolphins in it the entire way, with a great shot at the outright upset.

I'm playing on USC (10* PAC 12 GAME OF YEAR). As you may have heard, the Trojans lost their QB (Daniels) for the season last week. That means true freshman Kedon Slovis gets the call. The good news for Slovis is that he got some action last week, completing six of eight passes and that he's now had a full week to prepare, knowing that he'll be getting the start. While many are writing off USC with him behind center, new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell had this to say of Slovis: "I think, talent-wise, he's as good as I've ever seen..." Meanwhile, Stanford's QB (K.J. Costello) took a hard hit to the head last week and remains questionable, as of this writing. Thats a big blow, if he can't go, or isn't 100% healthy, as he led the Pac-12 in passing efficiency last season. Regardless of who is behind center for the Cardinal, they'll be without the services of all-conference left tackle Walter Little. Another huge blow. Losses to starters are particularly significant for the Cardinal as they didn't return many starters from last season in the first place. The home team has had its way in this rivalry of late. The Cardinal won at Stanford last year, the Trojans get some payback at home this year. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. While everyone knows that the Sooners no longer have Murray as their QB, the cupboard is far from bare. The Sooners still have their offensive system in place and their offense is going to be just fine. Hurts takes over and he's got weapons at his disposal. Keep in mind that Oklahoma has averaged more than 45 ppg since 2015, leading the nation in most offensive categories during that span. On the other side of the ball, the Sooners brought back plenty of starters on defense. Speaking of defense, Houston is a team which doesn't play much of it. The Cougars are 3-7 ATS the past 10 times that they were road underdogs in the 21.5 to 28 point range. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 7-3 ATS its last 10, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 63 or greater. I'm expecting the Sooners to win in a blowout.

I'm playing on WSU. At first glance, this line may appear a little higher. However, the reality is that it could be even higher, as this is an absolute mismatch. The poor Aggies, who will also have to play road games at Alabama and Ole Miss, know it. Coach Martin had this to say about the Aggies extremely tough schedule: "Football pays the bills. We're getting quite a bit of money to play Alabama and Ole Miss and Washington State. We understand that football has that priority ... This is one of the only years we'll ever play three power conference games. We'd like to stay away from that and limit that to two. It makes it more realistic for us. This is one of those challenging years and we’re going to accept it." Indeed. The Cougars have advantages all over their field. True, they lost last year's QB. However, the offense returned just about everyone else. The receiving corps is stacked, the offensive line is great. The offense will again be potent. The defense's weakness last year was against the run. However, they're going to be winning so much here that the Aggies are going to need to attempt to throw. It won't be pretty. The Cougars are out to prove last year wasn't a fluke. I expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, starting the season with a "statement blowout win."

I'm playing on LIBERTY. This is a dangerous game for Syracuse. Hugh Freeze takes over for the Flames. While he did have some past recruiting violation issues, Freeze also brings a winning attitude and a history of success. Freeze was 39-25 at Ole Miss with a couple of bowl wins. Prior to that, he was 10-2 at Arkansas State. Freeze inherited plenty of offensive talent. The Flames averaged better than 33 ppg last season and they return their top passer,  top rusher and top receiver. QB Calvert threw for more than 3000 yards in 12 games, finding the end zone 22 times. While last year's defense was admittedly pretty soft, Freeze's team does bring back five of its top six tacklers. The Orange, who lose QB Dungey who had a lot of heart and more than 9000 career passing yards, will score some points, probably quite a few of them. However, I expect the Flames to be able to keep up. The Orange gave up some big plays last year and they've got a lot of new faces on defense. Syrcause coach Babers acknowledged as much: "The first game that we have is a quality opponent with an outstanding head coach that’s known for his offensive genius. It's going to be a difficult game for us, especially since we don’t have any tape of him with that personnel." Regardless of what Babers may say to his team, with Maryland on deck next week, followed by a huge game vs Clemson after that, the Orange could easily overlook the Flames. In a game which I feel will be a lot closer than most will be expecting, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE. Determined to make a statement, I see the Spartans keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. Tulsa's inexperienced offensive line is going to lead to trouble against the superior Spartan defenders all evening long. That will lead to problems for both the Tulsa throwing and running game. While Tulsa has a couple of decent backs, the Spartans are dominant against the rush. The Spartans struggled offensively last season and this is an opportunity to show that this year will be different. Tulsa allowed an average of 34.5 ppg on the road last season. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA. The line has gone up from its opener, providing value with the home team. While the Steelers have had a good preseason, it should be easy to look ahead to the next weekend's showdown at New England. The Panthers' bigger name stars won't be playing. However, they do have several backup positions still up for grabs with players fighting for the roster. These teams faced each other at Pittsburgh in the final week of last year's preseason but they also met here at Carolina in Week 4 of the 2017 preseason. The Steelers needed a late 4th quarter TD pass from Dobbs (who will start for them today) to eke out a 3-point win. I say the Panthers return the favor. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. I really like how this one sets up for the Argos. The Als are off a miracle comeback road OT win against the defending Grey Cup Champs. In case you missed it, the Als scored twice in the final 50 seconds of regulation (then twice more in OT) to earn an unlikely 40-34 win. That should have them ripe for a letdown against the "lowly Argos," particularly as this will be the first time all season that they've played back-to-back road games. Note that the Als have only been favored once all season and they lost that one outright. They're 2-4 ATS when laying points the past 2+ seasons. The Argos have shown some life of late including a victory over Winnipeg to begin the month. They're 4-0 the last four times that they hosted the Als, winning outright by four, 14, 32 and 13. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Anytime that I take an extra +1.5 runs with a team, I have to also like that team's chances of winning outright. Thats absolutely the case here. After getting embarrassed 11-0 yesterday, the Padres are going to be in an angry mood, determined to bounce back. Eovaldi returned to the rotation last week and it didn't go well. In just two innings, he allowed five earned runs, walking three times as many batters as he struck out. Lamet, on the other hand, has a stellar 2.50 ERA in three August starts. Over that 18-inning span, he's recorded an impressive 25 K's. Lamet missed all of last season and struggled when he first came back. However, you can see that he's throwing the ball very well now based on his August numbers. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Sox have struggled against NL teams this season. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way in this one, Lamet and the Padres coming away with AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on FLORIDA. While these rivals haven't met since 2013, I expect the Gators to have a significant advantage in the season opener at Orlando. The Hurricanes would love to get their 'new era' off to a winning start and beating Florida would sure be a great way to do it. Thats asking an awful lot though. Consider that Miami has a new coach, a new offensive coordinator and a ton of new players. The Gators, on the other hand, are off a 10-win season under Dan Mullen. The Gators are looking to build off that and have the pieces in place to do so. They know if they can beat Georgia, that the sky's the limit for them. It all starts here, however. Speaking of Mullen, don't forget that he was passed over for the Miami coaching job. Twice, in fact. Whatever he may say, winning big is going to feel extra special. Expect the Gators, 6-2 ATS their last eight non-conf games, to win by double-digits. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. This line has climbed from its opener to the point where I feel that the home underdog is providing us with excellent value. Note that the Lions are 7-2 ATS their last nine preseason games, when listed as a home underdog of seven or fewer points. With an O-2 SU/ATS record thus far, the Lions should have a little more urgency than the 2-0 SU/ATS Billls. Note that Buffalo is only 5-12 SU (5-11-1 ATS) its last 17 preseason games, when off a double-digit win. Grab the generous points and expect a motivated Detroit team to come away with AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing TAMPA on the run-line (-1.5 runs) This one's a major mismatch. Yarbrough is 11-3 with a 3.56 ERA overall. In six starts, his ERA dips to 3.16 to go along with a sparkling 0.75 WHIP. He's averaged better than seven innings in those starts, too, striking out 32 while walking only four. Last time out, he tossed a complete game 3-hit shutout, striking out eight without walking a batter. In fact, in his last two starts, he's gone 15 innings without allowing a run. Conversely, Zimmerman is 1-8 with a 7.13 ERA on the season. He just had to receive a nerve block injection last week, as he was dealing with a cervical spasm. Needless to say, thats less than ideal. Rays roll. 

I'm playing KC on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Keller averages 6 2/3 innings per home start and he's got a 3.51 ERA and 1.136 WHIP here. Opposing batters hit .214 against him here. Those are pretty solid numbers. By comparison, Hudson has a 4.45 ERA and 1.632 WHIP on the road, where he averages 5 1/3 innings. Keller faced the Cards earlier this season. He was excellent in that 5/22 start, as he allowed just two hits and two runs through seven complete innings, winning 8-2. I expect AT LEAST another 'run-line cover' in this one. 

I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While I like the Padres' chances of winning this one 'outright,' I'm happy to grab the extra +1.5 runs. Lauer has struggled on the road but he's got a solid 2.89 ERA here at home. The Padres have won five of his past six starts here. McKay can hit, so thats one advantage that he has. However, he also has a 5.79 ERA in four starts since the All Star Break. Opposing batters are hitting .313 against him in those games. Expect Lauer and the Padres to bounce back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.'

I'm playing on WINNIPEG. The Stamps have continued to play well and win games, despite playing without their starting QB. Now they're up against an angry Winnipeg team which has been better on both sides of the ball than they have. Not only has Winnipeg scored (20) more points than Calgary, the Bombers have also allowed (23) less. The Bombers have lost b2b games but both those were on the road. Now, they're back home where they're a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS, outscoring visiting teams by more than 18 ppg. They beat Calgary by eight here last season and they're arguably a better team now. In addition to having homefield advantage, the Bombers also have a major scheduling advantage. They last played on 8/1 at Toronto; the Stamps last played their archrival (Edmonton) on 8/3, which has them working on an extra short week. Bombers bounce back with a statement blowout win.

I'm playing BOSTON on the run-line (-1.5 runs) The Royals jumped all over the Red Sox, right out of the gate, in yesterday's game. I expect the opposite to be true in the series finale. Rodriguez, 13-5 on the season, is 9-2 his last 13 starts. That includes a 6-1 mark in 11 home starts. The Sox are 16-4 his last 20 here, 12 of those 16 wins coming by multiple runs. He was 5-0 with a 2.03 ERA in July. The Sox won Rodriguez's last two starts against the Royals by scores of 8-3 and 10-6. Sparkman is 3-7 with a 5.58 ERA. On the road, he's 0-4 with a terrible 9.08 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting .344 against him, when he pitches away from KC. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on BC. These teams just met at Saskatchewan last week. The Riders pulled away late for the win and cover. With this week's rematch being played at Vancouver, I expect the revenge-minded Lions to get some payback. Admittedly, BC hasn't been very good. That said, the same can pretty much be said for Saskatchewan. I don't feel that the Riders are ready to be laying points on the road. The Lions have won four of the past five against the Riders here, the lone loss came by a field goal. Going back further finds that the Lions have won 11 of their last 15 against the Riders here. The Riders were a bit fortunate last week, as they benefitted with a 100-yard kickoff return. Overall, the Lions had a 468-379 edge in total yards while also enjoying an edge of more than six minutes, in terms of time of possession. Despite coming up short, the Lions got a strong showing from QB Reilly. He finished 31 of 40 (346 yards) overall and completed 14 consecutive passes, at one point. Expect Reilly and co. to build on that effort Saturday. In a case where I expect an outright win, I'll happily grab the points. 

I'm playing on BC. I waited patiently all week for this line to climb and my patience was finally rewarded. Sure, BC looked pretty bad last week. The Riders aren't exactly a dominant team though and the Lions will look much better. Indeed, Saskatchewan is only 1-3 (lone win came against Toronto, a team BC also beat) and is coming off a 37-10 loss to a Calgary team playing without its #1 QB. These teams will meet again at Vancouver next week. The Lions know they don't have much (any) homefield advantage though and that they better take care of business while away from home. Last season's first meeting between these teams was decided by just a field goal. Look for the Lions to give the Riders all they can handle, picking up AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on OTTAWA. While the Bombers have gotten off to a great start, I expect them to have their hands full this evening. The Redblacks won at Calgary in their lone road game. So, they're fully capable of competing at a difficult venue. Including that upset win, they're a lucrative 16-6 ATS their last 22, when getting points and 14-5 ATS their last 19 road games, overall. Off b2b losses, the first coming at the hands of these same Blue Bombers, Ottawa is going to be extremely hungry. Note that the Redblacks are 6-1 ATS (5-2 SU) their last seven, after having lost consecutive games. Grab the generous points. 

I'm playing on HAMILTON. Enough is enough! To say that the Stampeders have owned the Ti-Cats would be an understatement. The last time that Hamilton beat the Stamps was way back in 2011, in a game at Moncton, New Brunswick. Since that time, Calgary has won 15 straight in the series, including a win in the 2014 Grey Cup. Times have changed, however, and this is the perfect time for the Ti-Cats to finally have their revenge. The Stamps are banged-up and without their starting QB, Bo Levi Mitchell. (Mitchell was the Grey Cup MVP last year and he was also the CFL's Most Outstanding Player.)  The Cats are 3-0 their last three at home. In this season's two games here, they're outscoring teams by an average score of 32 to 13.5. Time for some long-awaited PAYBACK!

I'm playing on SASKATCHEWAN. I've always been a believer in not over-reacting to one game. That said, if a team looks really really good, or really really bad, I also don't just completely discount what I've witnessed. In case you missed it, the Argos were atrocious in their opener. Hosting Hamilton, the Argos were awful in all facets of the game and lost 64-14. There were too many problems to expect them all to get resolved over the course of one week. Don't expect the Riders to feel sorry for them. Saskatchewan has been involved in two close games, losing both. Those came on the road though, a 23-17 loss at Hamilton and a 44-41 setback at Ottawa. Playing their home opener and stepping down considerably in class, they're going to be fired up. Not only will the Riders have the advantage of playing at home, in front of a raucous Canada Day crowd, they've also had a couple of extra days of preparation time. Fajardo looked sharp last week and the defense looked good against the Ti-Cats. Look for the Riders, who are 2-0 SU/ATS the last two times they hosted the Argos, to put it all together, pulling away for a double-digit win.

I'm playing on WINNIPEG. While both teams are undefeated, I like the home team for a number of reasons. The Eskimos are 2-0 and are playing on a shorter than normal week. The Bombers are 1-0; they had last week off. That figures to benefit them here. Last week was an emotional victory for the Eskimos, as it came against their former QB. A letdown will not surprise. Keep in mind that the Eskimos went through numerous changes in the offseason, overhauling their team. It hasn't caught up with them yet but they also haven't played on the road yet. Now, they'll take on a talented Winnipeg team which is hungry to win its home opener. The Bombers are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three games here, winning by a combined score of 91-35. Expect another win and cover on Thursday. 

I'm playing on SASKATCHEWAN. I successfully played against the Riders last week. However, I really like how this one sets up for them. Off their Week 1 loss, the Riders are going to be hungry to get back on track. In the Week 1 loss, the Riders lost their starting QB (Collaros) early in the game. Hamilton's Simoni Lawrence has since been handed a 2-game suspension. Whether its Fajardo or Harker behind center for this one, they'll have had a normal week's worth of preparation and will be ready to go. Thats more than can be said for Ottawa. The Redblacks are off a comeback revenge win over the defending champs, at Calgary. (You may recall that Calgary beat them in the Grey Cup.) That game at Calgary was on Saturday, making for a short week. Given that short week and what an emotional win Saturday's game was, I believe the Redblacks are ripe for a letdown. Grab the points but don't be surprised when the Riders score the outright upset. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I've stated several times that the Raptors rarely do anything easily. They had a chance to close out the series in Game 5 but didn't. Having missed that opportunity, I fully expect this series to go the distance. The Warriors are now 14-6 ATS their last 20 when trailing in a playoff series, 8-3 ATS when facing elimination. While the champs won't have Durant, they do have Curry and Thompson now firing on all cylinders. They didn't have Thompson for the first of the two previous home games and he was still in his first game back for the second. Cousins, too, has found his form. Kerr had this to say of his volatile center: "I thought DeMarcus was fantastic tonight. He stayed ready. He didn’t get the first call for that second-quarter run. We went to [Andrew Bogut] and then with the injury we knew we needed his scoring and he stayed ready and played a brilliant game. I'm so happy for him and he's been through an awful lot himself over the last year plus his own injuries." The Warriors are 9-2 SU/ATS their last 11 when playing a Game 6. Momentum back in their corner, expect them to improve on those stats here.

I'm playing on HAMILTON. The Riders have had the edge in this series in recent years. Expect Hamilton to get some payback on Opening Night. While the Ti-Cats should be a team on the rise, don't be surprised if Saskatchewan takes a step back this season. The Ticats bring back QB Masoli along with his top receiving weapons. Thats a good thing. Masoli threw for more than 5200 yards, top in the East. His 28 passing TDs also led the East. The Riders lost both their coach and GM in the offseason. They tried to sign a new QB (Bo Levi Mitchell) but failed to do so. So, they're settling with who they already had, Zach Collaros. On the defensive side, losing defensive end Willie Jefferson is a blow. Ticats start the season with a victory, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. While Durant has been ruled out, the Warriors are expecting to get Thompson back. Needless to say, that'll be a big help. After the Warriors lost Game 1, I played on them in Game 2. At the time, I said that the "Raptors rarely do anything easily." Expect them to have their hands full with the desperate champs tonight. The Raptors aren't likely to get another massive performance (6-3-pointers) from Danny Green. The Warriors know that they can't afford to lose this one. They're going to be playing with extreme intensity right from the opening tipoff. Expect them to dig deep and even up the series, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The champs had a very long layoff before Game 1. So, its not surprising that they were a bit rusty. That won't be an issue in Game 2 though. Down a game, we're going to see the Warriors' very best. The Raptors have been impressive in these playoffs. However, they rarely do anything the 'easy' way. Off a big win in Game 1, we can expect them to have their hands full in this one. Kawhai has been outstanding throughout the playoffs but he's battling a nagging injury and was noticably hobbling at times in Game 1. Siakam was the difference in Game 1. However, with the Warriors adjusting (probably a lot more Green on him) he's highly unlikely to match that effort in Game 2. The Warriors are 32-11 SU their last 43 when off a road loss. Expect them to dig deep and even up the series.

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After dominating the Pistons and the Celtics, perhaps the Bucks weren't quite ready for the type of street-fight that the Raptors were going to give them. I still think they're the more talented team though and they've had five games to get used to the Raptors intensity. Facing elimination for the first time, I expect Antekoumpo and co. to be at their very best. The Bucks did win here back in January, so they know that they can win in this building. They held Toronto to just 92 points in that game. The Raptors got a huge game from Van Fleet on Thursday; thats unlikely to happen again. Brogdon moved back into the starting lineup in Game 5. Thats a big help for Giannis as it gives them another ball handler. Bledsoe had been playing poorly on offense but was better in Game 5, scoring 20 points. A week ago, everyone was counting out the Raptors and I said not to do so. Now, I'm saying, don't count out the Bucks. This series is going the distance. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I successfully backed the Raptors in both their wins at Toronto. So, I'm not at all surprised that the series is tied. That said, playing at home, I expect the Bucks to take this pivotal game. The Bucks earned the right to play Game 5 (and Game 7, if necessary) here at Milwaukee by being the best team all season. Even off their Game 4 loss, they're still 22-2 SU and 19-5 ATS when off a loss. Prior to their current 2-game skid, they'd only lost twice in a row once all season. Off that previous 2-game skid, they responded with a 19-point win over Indiana, holding the Pacers to 98 points. They're 9-1 ATS (10-0 SU) after having lost two of their last three. The Raptors are an exhausted team as they fought a lot harder to get here than Milwaukee did and as they're starters are logging heavy minutes. The home crowd in Toronto helped provide energy but they won't have that going for them here. The Bucks won the first two games here by eight and 22 points. Expect more of the same Thursday. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. I won with the Raptors in Game 3 and I'm coming right back with them in Game 4. In Game 3, the Raptors were favored. Now, we're getting them as underdogs. While I do expect an outright win, that's definitely some added value. Yes, I'm aware that Milwaukee was great off a loss in the regular season. However, this is a whole different situation. The Bucks had their chance to knock the Raptors out. If they'd won on Sunday and went up 3-0, the series was finished. They probably would have go on to sweep and that would have likely ended the Kawai ere in Toronto. That didn't happen though and the resilient Raptors now have life and momentum. They did an amazing job on Antetokounmpo, as he was 5-16 before fouling out. Losing Lowry, who fouled out in the fourth, was a huge blow for the Raptors, particularly on a night where guys like Green and Van Fleet were really struggling with their shot. To survive that and win without Lowry is going to be really good for this team. I expect Kawai and Lowry to get more help from their secondary players in this one, leading to another Raptors win.

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors embarrassed themselves in Game 2. Back home, I expect an extremely determined effort on Sunday. This is a battle-tested Toronto team. It wasn't long ago that the Raptors were off their huge Game 7 win against Philly. Then, they almost stole Game 1 of this series. One bad game doesn't make them a bad team. The Raptors have still won five of six (and eight of their last 10) here at home. The Raptors are also a perfect 4-0 SU when off a road loss of 20 or more points, 1-0 SU/ATS in these playoffs. They still believe that they can win this series. While that remains to be seen, I fully expect them to take Game 3, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Warriors have treated me well since Durant went down. I won with them in their Game 6 close-out victory at Houston. (I also won with them in Game 1 of this series. Last game, I won with the total and didn't play the side.) Tonight, however, I expect Durant's absence to finally catch up with them. The Blazers have been a very resilient team these entire playoffs and they're not going to go down without a fight. With the Game 2 cover, the Blazers are 3-0 ATS when trailing in these playoffs. They're also 33-23 ATS (45-11 SU) when they were favored. Additionally, they're 5-1 SU/ATS off two or more consecutive road lossses. While the Warriors are a very solid 31-16 on the road, the Blazers are an even better 37-10 here at home. They beat the Warriors by 22 points the last meeting here. Expect them to play with desperation and for them to finish on top once again.

I'm playing SEATTLE on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Twins won big last night but I'm anticipating a much closer game this evening, the Mariners bouncing back with a big effort. Gonzales' last two starts came at Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium. While he pitched very well in New York, he stumbled at Boston. Those are some tough venues though. Here at Safeco, he's 3-2 with a very solid 2.93 ERA. One of those losses was a 3-2 defeat against Cole and the Astros. In other words, one would be 4-1 in Gonzales' five home starts, if they'd been getting an extra +1.5 runs. While the Twins haven't seen Gonzales, the M's are plenty familiar with Perez. The last time that Perez started against them, he lasted just 1 2/3 innings, giving up five runs (2 earned) while walking five batters. Seattle won 12-6. Prior to yesterday, the Twins were off three straight 1-run games and b2b 1-run wins. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover' for the home team in this one. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. As you likely saw, the Raptors are off a thrilling Game 7 win against the 76ers. That was an extremely hard-fought and emotional series and I feel that the Raptors may experience a slight letdown in Wednesday's series opener with the Bucks. Unlike Toronto, Milwaukee is very well rested. The Bucks have been winning big these entire playoffs. They're 8-1 SU/ATS overall. All eight victories came by a minimum of seven points. Seven came by double-digits. The Bucks took three of four regular season meetings, two of their three wins coming by double-digits. Catching the Raptors off perhaps their biggest win in franchise history, I like the Bucks to pull away for another double-digit win here. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. As of this writing, Durant remains doubtful for this game. However, his absence didn't stop me from successfully backing the champs in their Game 6 win at Houston and it won't keep me from backing them here. That Game 6 victory was huge for the Warriors. Not only did they prove again that they could win without KD but it also gave them some extra time to rest, recover and prepare for Portland. Thats a luxury which the Blazers don't have, as they're fresh off a gritty Game 7 win at Denver on Sunday afternoon. That series was extremely hard-fought and I feel that it will take a toll on the Blazers. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have been decided by double-digits. I expect the combination of the extra rest and homecourt advantage to prove the difference, Curry and co. pulling away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Obviously, the loss of Durant is a huge blow. Prior to the injury, he was on track to being the playoff MVP. That said, the Warriors are still fully capable of winning without him. Thompson finally got going last game. Curry started slow but also got going when they needed him. Don't forget that Green (and perhaps others) would love to show that they don't need Durant to win. You may recall Green previously saying something along the lines of this to Durant: "You're a b***h and you know you’re a b***h ... We don't need you. We won without you. Leave." Eight straight meetings between these teams have been decided by six or less. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the Raptors were dominant in Game 5, I expect the 76ers to bounce back big in Game 6. The Raptors are just 12-16-1 ATS as road favorites. That includes a 4-9-1 ATS mark as road favorites of six or fewer points. Its also worth noting that Toronto is just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times it was off a home win vs. a divisional opponent. While the Raptors have a fairly impressive 29-16 record on the road overall, the 76ers are a much better 34-12 at home. They're 30-16 ATS the past 2+ seasons as home underdogs, 19-11 ATS as home underdogs of six or less. During that span, they're also 10-3-1 ATS after scoring 90 or fewer points in their previous game. Additionally, the 76ers are 13-4 ATS their last 17, when off a road loss against a divisional opponent. That includes a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark their last six in that situation. Expect Philly to bounce back, sending the series back to Toronto for Game 7. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I won with the Rockets in Game 3 and Game 4. I backed them in Game 3 as I really didn't expect them to just roll over. Off the OT win in Game 3, I liked their momentum for Game 4. However, we're back at Oracle now and I expect the champs to remind everyone that they're still the best in the West. The Rockets are 23-22 away from Houston. The Warriors are 31-13 at home. The Warriors are 3-1 ATS their last four, when tied in a playoff series. They're also 5-2 ATS their last seven (6-1 SU) when playing with double-revenge - 2 straight losses against the same opponent. Expect a statement victory. 

I'm playing TORONTO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While I expect the Jays to win this one outright, I also feel that the extra +1.5 runs could well come in handy. The Jays, who have yet to score a run in the series, have not given Thornton much run support and a 1-run game wouldn't surprise. (Each of Thornton's last three starts - and five of seven overall - have been decided by a single run.) For his part, however, Thornton is coming off an absolute gem. In fact, he only allowed one hit through seven shutout innings. Gibson went just five innings in taking a loss last time out. In three career starts at Toronto, he's got an ugly 7.56 ERA. He was taken deep at least once in all three of those. The Jays are 18-11 (+7.3) vs the money-line, the past 2+ seasons, after scoring two runs or less in b2b games. That includes an 8-2 mark after scoring one or less in b2b games. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.'

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Rockets played the Warriors tough at Oracle, losing by four and six points. Back on their home floor, desperate for a win, I expect them to break through with a win and cover. While the Warriors are an excellent 30-14 on the road, the Rockets are an even better 34-10 at home. The Warriors haven't missed Cousins yet but I expect his absence to be felt here. The Rockets beat the Jazz by 59 combined points in the three games here in the first round. While they've now lost their last three against the champs, the Rockets are 5-1 SU/ATS their last six, when facing a team which has defeated them in the previous three meetings. They're 8-1-1 ATS (9-1 SU) when playing with double-revenge, going 25-10-2 ATS (30-7 SU) in that situation the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to elevate their level of play en route to a critical win and cover.