Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on DREXEL. The Tigers had their way with the Dragons when these teams met at Towson two weeks ago. I expect a much different result for tonight's rematch at Philadelphia.

The Dragons have played a tough slate of games lately. Including the game at Towson, their last four games have come against the top four teams in the Colonial Athletic Conference. Three of those games were on the road, too. The lone home game was against UNC Wilmington. The Dragons were competitive (leading at halftime but lost by 6) but came up short. The result notwithstanding, it was encouraging that the offense "woke up" and topped the 70 point mark. 

The Tigers are no slouches either and are actually 3-1 on the road in conference play. That said, they've been inconsistent with their effort. They've also ost five times away from home, compared to just twice at home. Note that three of their road/neutral wins have been by four points or less and that they've also lost a pair of road games by two points or less. In fact, with the exception of a few blowout losses, all their road games have been quite close. Note that the Tigers are just 1-3 SU/ATS off a conference win. Last time they were coming off a victory, they managed only 37 points their next game.

Drexel leads the series, 48-18, and has won 23 of the 30 meetings here in Philadelphia. The Dragons won by four here last season. I like their chances of an upset here. However, with a real possibility of this being another close one, I'll happily grab the points. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on UTAH. I won with the Bears when these teams met at Cal a few weeks ago. However, I'm expecting a much different result for tonight's rematch.

After a slow start, off three straight wins, the Utes have started to hit their stride. The Utes, who have solid non-conf wins over teams like San Diego State, BYU, and Temple, not to mention a big win vs. Duke, have only lost on their home floor once all season.

Cal has also thrived at home. In fact, the Bears are perfect when playing at Berkeley. However, the Bears are just 1-6 on the road.

In addition to the change in venue, another big difference from the 1/3 meeting is that Cal will now be without star guard Tyrone Wallace. Wallace put up double-digit points in the first meeting, while leading the team in assists (6) and steals (2). The 6'5 senior averages 33+ minutes with a 15.4/5.4/4.6 line this season after doing the same 17.1/7.1/4.0 last season. This is the Bears' first road game since he got hurt and I believe that he'll be missed.

The Utes are an impressive 70-42 ATS over the years when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. Payback time. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on UTAH. These teams met just over a week ago at Charlotte. While it took them two overtimes to do it, the Hornets managed to win that one. With this evening's rematch being played at Salt Lake City, I expect a much different result.

Including the game vs. Utah, the Hornets have seen three of their last five go to OT. I expect it to catch up with them tonight.

The Jazz finally got Derek Favors back last game. While he played only 19 points, he did manage 14 points. Teams can sometimes struggle in the first game when a star returns from a lengthy injury - and the Jazz were upset by the Pistons. However, Favors now has a game under his belt and his return only makes this team stronger.

The Jazz are 20-5 all time here against the Hornets, including a perfect 8-0 the last eight meetings here.

Speaking of perfect, the Jazz are a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS off an upset loss this season. Despite facing some tough teams, they won those six games by a combined 63 points, too, an average of greater than 10 per game. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MASSACHUSETTS. The Hawks are rolling. The Minutemen are slumping. Those results have led to a very high line. I believe that it will prove to be a little too high.

While most will be expecting a blowout, a look as the Minutemen's last four losses shows that none of them came by greater than a dozen points. The Minutemen get outscored by an average of 5.4 points on the road, the Hawks outscore teams by an average of 8.2 ppg here at home.

To give some perspective to how high this line is, consider that the Hawks were just laying -11 points against La Salle in their last game. La Salle has the worst record in the conference. When UMass played AT La Salle, it was the Minutemen which were favored. UMass won that game, too. Yet, they're laying a much higher line tonight. Granted, that's mostly to do with the fact that Hawks are now playing at home, in front of what figures to be a fired up crowd.

UMass coach Derek Kellogg thinks that may be just what the Minutemen need though: "...we've fared well in places when there's been some decent crowds, other than maybe Dayton Davidson had a good crowd that was on top of us and our guys responded. Maybe that's what we need, to go on the road and play a top-30 RPI team who's going to have a great home court advantage."

Overall, this has been a close series over the years. In fact, the Hawks haven't beaten the Minutemen by more than 11 points since way back in 2005 and they've played 17 games since that time. Don't be surprised if this one also proves closer than expected. 10* best bet

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I successfully played against the Bucks in each of their last two games, road losses at Houston and New Orleans. Returning home to face a struggling Orlando team, I like their chances of getting back on track here.
To their credit, the Magic are still playing hard. That hasn't been enough though. They're 0-6 SU their last six games and 1-10 their last 11. Counting yesterday's game as an ATS loss, (Magic won or pushed vs. overnight line but lost vs. closing line) Orlando is now an awful 2-10 ATS its last 12 games.
 
Normally, if I thought a team was still "playing hard," I might expect them to snap out of their ATS funk. However, this is a very difficult spot for them. Not only are they playing the second of b2b games (they're already 0-2 SU/ATS in b2b spots in 2016, losing by 31 combined points) but they're also off their second straight OT loss, which can get demoralizing. Last night, the Magic gave everything they had and were leading by four points with less than 20 seconds to go.
 
Tobias Harris noted: "Its very disappointing. Two games we felt we had the game in our hands and we let it slip away." Harris and Vucevic both played more than 39 mins last night. Their three top guards played 35, 37 and 38 respectively. Sure, Skiles would like to win his return to Orlando. However, Kidd, back behind the bench for the first time in 18 games, wants to prevent that from happening every bit as much.
 
The well-rested Bucks, who average nearly 50 points per game in the paint, should be licking their chops to face an Orlando team which gave up 70 in the paint last night. They've won three straight at home and they'll be looking to avenge a November loss at Orlando. Payback time. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on KANSAS. The Cyclones have won three of the last four in this series. However, prior to that, Kansas had won 18 of 19. I expect things to return to "normal" tonight.

The fact that the Jayhawks lost their last two road games may keep a lot of people off them here. However, I expect it to provide them with some added motivation, as they look to show the national audience that this is still a team fully capable of winning anywhere.

Kansas coach Bill Self held a meeting for his four best players prior to the Jayhawks last game. The team responded with a 9-point win over Texas, erasing an early 12-point deficit. Though that wasn't quite enough of a margin to cover the spread, it still allowed the players to regain their confidence. They were dominant in the second half and I look for them to build off that here.

The Cyclones have a talented starting lineup and they obviously are going to really want this one. That said, they've experienced some growing pains since the coaching transition; I feel the Self vs. Prohm matchup favors the visitors. I also feel the Jayhawks have a little more depth and won't view it as an upset when they finish on top. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. If they can get this game in, I feel that it will favor the home team. The Wizards have had plenty of time off. The Celtics played last night and will now be playing their third game in the past four days. Going back further finds that Boston will be playing its 9th game in the past 14 nights. This will just be Washington's sixth game, during the same period.
True, yesterday's game was pretty "easy" for the Celtics. However, they still had to play - and they still had their schedule thrown off by the weather. (That game was supposed to be played the day before.) I won't be surprised to see it effect them here.
 
While the snowstorm has obviously been less than ideal and some may be concerned with the long layoff, note that the Wizards are 3-0 SU/ATS when playing with three or more day's rest in between games.
 
In addition to having the schedule and venue in their favor, the Wizards are playing with triple revenge, having lost all three of this season's series meetings. Payback time. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on ARIZONA. With 30 victories between them, these teams are obviously both extremely capable. That said, I really like how this one sets up for the visitors.

I (successfully) played against the Cards last week. Among my reasons for doing so was that I felt that they were laying a very big number. I really respect Rodgers and McCarthy and liked the momentum that the GB offense had gained from the win over Washington. Also, I didn't like that Arizona had lost its last game by a score of 36-6. Additionally, I knew Palmer hadn't won a playoff game - and until he'd overcome that hurdle, I didn't feel that his team deserved to be laying 7 or 7.5 points against the battle-tested Pack. Things set up much differently this week though.

For starters, the Cards no longer have to worry about laying any points. More importantly, instead of coming off a blowout loss, the Cards are now coming off a momentum-buidling win. They survived a miracle comeback by GB and still came out ahead. Their veteran star receiver was the hero and Palmer got the monkey off his back with a playoff win. They also get an extra day's worth of rest to compensate for the travel.

Carolina was certainly impressive in the first half against Seattle. However, the Panthers then had to hang on for dear life, nearly squandering a massive lead, while getting banged-up in the process. Olsen and Stewart, Newton's top two offensive weapons, were among the walking wounded. (Both are expected to play but its possible that they may be slightly less than 100%.)

While there's no denying that the Panthers have a talented defense, it should be noted that they've given up 20 or more points in four of their last six game and that two of those teams torched them for 35 or more. Now, they'll be taking on the #1 ranked offense in football, one which averaged 32.7 points and 426.2 points while going 7-1 on the road. (They outscored teams by an average of two TD's on the road this season, 32.7 to 18.7.) The Panthers won last year but the Cards didn't have Palmer, who happened to throw for 4671 yards (35 TDs) this season. Payback time. 10* Playoff GOY

I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. The Raptors upset the Clippers at LA earlier this season. I believe that they caught the Clippers at the right time for that one and that they'll find they're facing a far more formidable opponent in Sunday's rematch.
The Clippers were mired in their worst stretch of the season when the Raptors faced them back in November. The loss to Toronto was their third straight setback and dropped them to just 2-7 in their previous nine. Things have changed a lot since then though, as the Clippers have only lost eight more games combined since that time. Instead of coming off b2b losses, the Clippers check in off a 28-point win.
 
While they've been on a nice roll recently, the Raptors are just 5-11 ATS (6-10 SU) the last 16 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. Don't be surprised to see their winning streak come to an end. 10* best bet

I'm playing on New Orleans. Situation favors the home team here. Off back to back double-digit wins and winners of four of their last five, the Pelicans are arguably playing their best basketball of the season. Prior to yesterday, one could have said the exact same thing about the Bucks. The Bucks were off b2b double-digit wins and had won four of their previous five. Milwaukee lost a hard-fought game at Houston last night though. The fact that they battled all the way back, only to still fall short, makes it hard to take. Off that close loss and now playing the final leg of a 4-game road trip, I feel that they may not have enough left to contend with Davis and co. A look ahead to the return trip home - and the expected return of coach Jason Kidd - may also be in order.

Davis, who has 67 points in his last two games, had this to say of the team's recent play: "We're just playing desperate. That's it. That's how we've got to play from here on out. Like coach said, in a couple weeks we're going to see where our season goes - whether it's just playing it out or every game matters."

New Orleans has owned the Bucks here. I expect more "desperate" play, leading to another win and cover. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on OREGON. I won with the Ducks when they knocked off #25 USC on Thursday. This afternoon, I'm expecting more of the same against the Bruins.

Last year, the Ducks were led by a superstar in Joseph Young. This year's team is far more balanced. They've got four players averaging in double-figures. As I mentioned on Thursday, the Ducks haven't lost on this floor for more than a year. This season, they're outscoring visiting teams by a 80.1 to 65.5 margin here. A win this afternoon figures to vault them back into the Top 25.

On the other hand, the Bruins have a sub-500 (4-5) road record, going an ugly 2-7 ATS. They've allowed an average of 81.3 points per game on the road, which I expect to spell trouble this afternoon.

It was almost exactly one year ago (1/24/15) that the Ducks crushed the Bruins by a 82-64 margin here. I won't be surprised to see hisotry repeat itself with another double win for the home team. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on UCONN. This is a huge game for both teams. For starters, they're all excited about getting to renew their old rivalry against each other. More importantly, they could both really use the win to help their Big Dance resume. That said, I believe the Huskies need it a little more and I expect them to be a little hungrier.

The Huskies have beaten Michigan, Ohio State and Texas but have lost against Syracuse, Gonzaga and Maryland. A victory here gives them a winning record against non-conference teams likely to be in the top 100 in RPI.

The Huskies haven't forgotten losing the double-OT thriller the last time that these teams met. UConn coach Kevin Ollie noted: "That was a good game [against Georgetown in 2013]. I didn't like the ending of the game, that kind of stuck in my mind ... Thank God, we've got another chance [Saturday] to get another win against a great program. We've got a great opportunity to get a great win."

I look for the Huskies to earn that "great win," improving to 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 9* breakfast club

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Bucks come in as the hotter team. However, I believe the Rockets will be the "hungrier" team this evening.
 
Off three straight wins, the Bucks may be patting themselves on the backs a little. They've already guaranteed themselves at least a split on the current road trip. With a game at New Orleans on deck tomorrow night (Houston has tomorrow off) I could see this young team not showing up fully focused here. Keep in mind that they're still 7-18 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 104 to 96.1.
 
Also note that the Bucks are just 2-8 ATS the last 10 times they were off three or more consecutive SU wins AND just 4-19-1 ATS (4-20 SU) the last 24 times that they limited their previous opponent to 85 or fewer points.
 
Focus should not be an issue for the Rockets as they know they need to get back on track. I don't mind the fact that Howard won't be available either. Harden has been the man in recent games against Milwaukee and he'll need to be again here. The Rockets star was quoted as saying: "We've been through this situation before. Guys are going to have the opportunity to step up and play extra minutes, so just take advantage of it. Every go on this roster is preparing themselves for a situation like this ... It's just a matter of us regrouping and getting a win (Friday)." I expect Harden and co. to do just that, covering the small number along the way. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. Admittedly, the Nets are pretty brutal. I won with them when they beat the Knicks here on 1/13 though and I believe they're offering plenty of value again tonight.
 
The Jazz, who remain without one of their top two players in Favors, aren't the same team on the road. In fact, Brooklyn has more home wins (7) than Utah does road ones. The Jazz are only 6-15 away from Utah, getting outscored by a 99.9 to 95.8 average. They're already 0-2 on their current trip and they play at Washington tomorrow night. The Nets have tomorrow off. Note that Utah went to double-OT in the first of those games and single OT in the next. Disheartening losses.
 
The Nets are 12-9 ATS the last couple of seasons as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. This year's team is a respectable 9-6 ATS against teams from the West. I like their chances of improving on those stats tonight. 9* best bet

I'm playing on IONA. The Gaels recent struggles at the betting window have helped to play a part in bringing this line down. I feel that this will be a good spot for a break-out game. Note that Iona was laying -9 points in this matchup here last season and -12 the year before. In fact, this is the lowest line, when the Gaels were the host in this series, since back in 2007.
 
Even with a loss in their last game here, the Gaels are still 7-1 on this floor and they've still outscored visiting teams by 10 points per game here. Yes, they'll be without Washington (suspension) but they've still got plenty of offensive firepower. Much more than St. Peter's. While the Gaels average 79.8 points (84.6 at home) per game, the Peacocks average a mere 68.6 points, just 277th in the country.
 
Off b2b overall losses, with a road game (Fairfield) on deck AND knowing that they'll play at St. Peter's in less than two weeks, the Gaels know they can ill afford another loss. I expect them to be all business tonight, controlling the tempo and cruising to a win and cover. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on OREGON. The Trojans come in with an impressive record and a lofty ranking. Clearly, they're a much improved team from the one that Oregon swept (again) last season. I still believe that the Ducks are favored for good reason though. Lets not forget that Oregon hasn't lost on this floor for more than a year.
 
Off an upset of rival UCLA and ranked in the top 25 for the first time since 2008, I believe the Trojans could be ripe for an emotional letdown.
 
Oregon, which lost at Colorado last time out, has done a great job at bouncing back from a defeat. The Ducks are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS off a loss this season. I expect coach Altman to have his team fired up and for the Ducks to continue their dominance in this series. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Clearly, the Warriors are an elite team. Betting against them each game so far this season would have resulted in significant losses. They've shown some chinks in their armor recently though. Prior to Monday's blowout win at Cleveland, the Warriors had actually dropped two of three games outright and had gone 0-1-3 ATS their previous four. I believe this will be another good spot to go against them.
The Bulls got back on track with a momentum-building win at Detroit on MLK Day. They'll be highly motivated for the opportunity to knock off the mighty Warriors on National TV, particularly with the Warriors having already beaten them out west. The Bulls are 11-2 SU their last 13 when playing with "revenge," going an impressive 69-27 (SU) in that situation the past few seasons. While they were "only" 13-6 SU their last 19 games here, a closer look shows that only one of those 19 games resulted in a loss of greater than six points. I expect them to give their guests all they can handle with an excellent shot at the outright win. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. With a 16-3 record (5-1 in conference) the Salukis are starting to believe that they're an NCAA Tournament team. True, the schedule has been pretty soft. However, that doesn't change the fact that winning builds confidence.
 
Speaking of "confidence," the Sycamores may be lacking a little as they were thumped by 20 points last game, their winning streak snapped in blowout fashion.
 
The Salukis, who are 3-0 SU/ATS as home favorites of 3.5 or fewer points this season, know they need to hold serve at home in this one (teams play again at Indiana State on 2/10) and they haven't forgotten that the Sycamores swept them last season, upsetting them here last January. I look for them to come away with the win, covering the small number along the way. 10* January MVC G.O.M.

I’m playing on the Utah State Aggies as my 10* Best Bet.

Utah State plays host the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels Tuesday night. The Aggies overcame a big injury to Grayson Moore to score a second straight win, knocking off Colorado State Saturday. While losing Moore up front is a tough pill to swallow, we like Utah State building on this momentum – especially catching points at home. Coach Tim Duryea is looking to go smaller with a possible four-guard set, which should up the tempo for an Aggies offense averaging just over 73 points per game. Chris Smith stepped up big for USU, scoring 35 points for a shorthanded side against the Rams. The Rebels have also won two straight games but both of those wins came at home. UNLV lost its first two MWC road tests and is scoring only 67.8 points per road game, compared to 81.1 points at home.

I’m playing on Utah State as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Virginia Cavaliers as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Virginia Cavaliers host the Clemson Tigers in an ACC showdown Tuesday. The Tigers are building some momentum in the conference with five straight wins, including some big-name victims like Louisville and Duke, while covering the spread in each of those contests. Clemson is impressive but now is the opportune time to go against the Tigers with their stock so high. And nothing throws a team for a loop like Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers. Virginia is one of the toughest defensive teams in the country, allowing just over 61 points per game. On offense, Virginia plays a methodical pace which sucks the shot clock and really takes opponents out of their rhythm. The Cavs average only 63.5 possessions per game, panning out to a 73.2 scoring average on 49 percent shooting. Virginia is eager to get back on track after a loss at Florida State this weekend and we see them slowing down the red-hot Tigers.

I’m playing on Virginia as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Washington Wizards as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Washington Wizards welcome the Portland Trail Blazers to the nation’s capital, with the Blazers fresh off a loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. While many would see Portland ripe to rebound from that embarrassing defeat, we believe this is the beginning of a slide for the Trail Blazers, who wrap a three-game Eastern road trip in DC. Defense has been the Blazers’ biggest issue, allowing their last two opponents – Philly and Brooklyn – to score 114 and 104 points respectively. Washington has much more firepower than those Eastern rivals, ranked 10th in the NBA in points per game. The Wizards had won four in a row before losing to Boston Saturday and are a strong bounce-back bet, having covered in 11 of their last 13 games coming off a loss. The Wizards have also covered in seven of their last eight home stands against Portland.

I’m playing on Washington as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

I’m playing on the Utah Utes as my 10* Personal Favorite.

Utah is hoping some home cooking can heat up its offense when the Oregon State Beavers come to Salt Lake City Sunday. The Utes haven’t been sharp in recent games, averaging just under 58 points on 37.5 percent shooting the last three outings. Utah is in a tough spot against the Beavers, at 1-3 in Pac-12 play, making this a desperation game for the Utes. Oregon State comes into Sunday off a road loss at Colorado. With this game being their second straight road stop at high altitude, the Beavers could be running on fumes by the second half. This is just their fourth true road game of the season and OSU has struggled against the Utes, with Utah going 4-1 ATS in their last five head-to-head meetings.

I’m playing on Utah as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

*10 ROAST on Seattle Seahawks.

The Seahawks may have been lucky to sneak into the Divisional Round in a win over Minnesota, but this a quality team and a playoff savvy squad that will make the most of this opportunity. Seattle has plenty of motivation against the Panthers, who claimed the top spot in the NFC with a one-loss season. That record included a win in CenturyLink Field in Week 6. However, that was a long time ago and Seattle is a much different team. In the first meeting with the Panthers, Seattle was able to sack Cam Newton three times and limit him to 20-of-36 passing with two interceptions. The Seahawks pass rush has picked up the pace in recent games and will bring even more heat against Newton, who has struggled to complete passes under pressure. As Cam goes, so do the Panthers. If he’s struggling to create offense, Carolina is stuck looking for points elsewhere. That could be tough against the best scoring defense in the NFL for four years running.

I’m playing on Seattle as a 10* Sunday. 

*10 DIVISIONAL RND. GAME OF THE WEEK on Green Bay Packers.

The Packers looked like the team football fans have been waiting on in recent weeks in a one-sided win over Washington in the Wildcard Round. Green Bay manhandled a good Redskins defense and did a good job protecting Aaron Rodgers, allowing only one sack. This team is getting healthier on the offensive line and won’t have a repeat of Week 16’s beating at the hands of the Cardinals. Green Bay is getting good work from runners Eddie Lacy and James Starks, which will keep the Cardinals defense guessing. Arizona was rolled by Seattle in the season finale in which the Seahawks rumbled for 145 yards on the ground and dominated time of possession, tallying 36:37 of game time. The Packers, who rushed for 141 yards against the Redskins, can set a similar pace in the Divisional Round.

I’m playing on Green Bay as a 10* Saturday. 

I’m playing on the Philadelphia 76ers as my 10* Best Bet.

The Sixers are home to the Portland Trail Blazers Saturday, having covered in two straight games including an OT loss to the Bulls last time out. Philadelphia continues to dwell in the NBA basement and because of this, oddsmakers are handing over piles of points to them on a nightly basis. The value on the 76ers is starting to bubble up again especially in this matchup with a Western opponent. Perception between the two conferences is a wide gap, but the Blazers aren’t a strong team and will be playing the second night of a back-to-back after visiting the Brooklyn Nets Friday night. The Sixers have been a great play in non-conference games with a 10-6-1 ATS mark versus the West this season.

I’m playing on the Philadelphia 76ers as my 10* Best Best Saturday.

I’m playing on the Houston Rockets as my 10* Main Event.

Houston has a chance to pick up a resume win when LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers comes to the Toyota Center Friday. The Cavaliers will be in letdown mode, coming off a tough contest in San Antonio Thursday night. The Rockets will look to pick up their already up-tempo pace against the tired legs of Cleveland. Houston ranks eighth in offensive pace and averages 105 points per game as a host. The Rockets are peaking at the right moment to upend the Cavs, winning five in a row while covering the spread in three of those games. Cleveland has struggled in the second half of back-to-backs, going 0-4-1 ATS in their last five contests without rest.

I’m playing on Houston as my 10* Main Event Friday.

I’m playing on the Iona Gaels as my 10* MAAC Game Of The Month.

Iona looks to extend its home winning streak when it hosts the Monmouth-NJ Hawks Friday. The Gaels picked up their 26th win inside Hynes Athletics Center with a 90-80 victory over Marist last weekend. Iona has won five in a row but has only covered in one of those games. Despite that ATS drought, we like the value with the Gaels in a big MAAC matchup with the Hawks. Gaels star A.J. English is back to full strength after missing time with a hand injury, averaging almost 21 points on 45 percent shooting in his four games back. Also back is fellow guard Deyshonne Much, who had 21 points versus Marist. Things are clicking for the Gaels and we love them at home with this short spread.

I’m playing on Iona as my 10* MAAC Game Of The Month Friday. 

I’m playing on the Los Angeles Lakers as my 10* Main Event.

The Lakers step into the lion’s den against the Golden State Warriors – a matchup of the West’s worst versus its first. However, that’s where the value lies in this game. Oddsmakers are pulling truckloads of points to Los Angeles, which has been one of the better bets in recent weeks. Thanks to some huge spread and some better-than-expected play, L.A. has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 games including an outright win and cover versus New Orleans. The Warriors are in action Wednesday, playing in the thin air of the Pepsi Center in Denver. That should leave the defending champs feeling extra fatigued in this second stop of back-to-back road stops. We don’t think the Lakers have an upset in them but they are playing well enough to stay within this mountain of points.

I’m playing on L.A. Lakers as my 10* Main Event Thursday.

I’m playing on the Santa Clara Broncos as my 10* Best Bet.

The Broncos are hosts to the Pepperdine Waves in WCC action Thursday. Pepperdine comes into this matchup off a huge win over St. Mary’s, taking a 67-64 win over the Gaels, snapping their eight-game winning streak. That sets the Waves up for a letdown spot in this tough road tilt. The Broncos are fresh off a win against San Diego in which they knocked down better than 51 percent of their looks in that win over the Toreros. Santa Clara has covered in five of its last seven games and is a solid bet against conference foes, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine WCC games.

I’m playing on Santa Clara as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

I’m playing on the Gonzaga Bulldogs as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Bulldogs bring a seven-game winning streak into this home showdown against BYU Thursday, but haven’t been the most reliable side against the spread in that stretch – covering in just four of the six lined games. However, the Cougars will get special attention from Gonzaga, considering BYU stunned the Bulldogs in Spokane in the finale game of the regular season last year. That snapped a 41-game home winning streak – something that's not lost on the Zags. Brigham Young has only three players back from that upset and run small after 6-foot-11 center Nate Austin. The Cougars will have issues against an angry Gonzaga frontcourt, led by standouts Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer, who run 6-foot-11 and 6-foot-10 and outclass most forwards they meet.

I’m playing on Gonzaga as my 10* Personal Favorite Thursday.

I’m playing on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Fighting Irish are reeling after dropping two of their last three, including a home stand against Pitt last time out. However, we love the situation Notre Dame finds itself in Wednesday night hosting a Georgia Tech team coming off one of its biggest wins in recent seasons. The Yellow Jackets upset No. 4 Virginia last time out, opening the door for a huge letdown spot from the Cavaliers. Notre Dame is one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the country, knocking down over than 40 percent of its outside looks. Georgia Tech could find itself buried early on if it comes out flat after such a big win.

I’m playing on Notre Dame as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Brooklyn Nets as my 10* REVENGE ANNIHILATOR.

Things are going south in Brooklyn, with the franchise doing some housecleaning the past week – firing its head coach and GM. Often times a shift like this can shake a team from its slumber, and with the media doing its best to lambast the Nets, the spreads will climb for Brooklyn. That’s what we’re dealing with Wednesday when the Knicks come to the Barclays Center. New York will be playing the second night of back-to-back games, taking on the Celtics in a physical affair at home Tuesday. The value on the Nets is coming full circle and with the Knicks in a perfect situational spot, we can’t resist pulling the trigger on Brooklyn as a home underdog.

I’m playing on Brooklyn as a my 10* REVENGE ANNIHILATOR.

I am playing on MINNESOTA. Minnesota is simply getting too many points from oddsmakers to ignore in this spot and I think the Gophers keep it close in this Big Ten matchup on Tuesday.

Minnesota will be playing with a little desperation in search of its first conference win of the season while Nebraska could have a slight letdown after earning its first conference game over Rutgers in the Huskers' last outing.

This seems to be a great matchp for the Gophers also after they hammered the Huskers in Nebraska in their last meeting last season, 60-42. 10* Main Event

I am playing on CREIGHTON. Blue Jays head coach Greg McDermott is calling this game against No. 9 ranked Providence one of the biggest games for the Jays since they've entered the Big East and I think home court will help propel them for the victory.

I'm expecting public money to head toward Providence in this one but the sharps know Creighton is a strong team laying a tiny number and is well worth the play here. The Jays have covered seven of their last nine games are absolutely blazing hot shooting in recent games.

Creighton has shot 49.6 percent from the field and 38.8 percent from long range and it's that 3-point shooting that I feel really gives them the edge here over Providence. The Blue Jays are also scoring 90 points per game at home this season and they own the reigning Big East player of the week, Maurice Watson Jr. who scored 40 points last week to go with 18 rebounds. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on the CELTICS. I fully expect to see a huge effort from Boston Tuesday night after losing a heartbreaker on Sunday to Memphis after holding a 21-point lead in that game.

The Celtics have dropped to 19-18 after a five-game winning streak in late December and they know they have to get back to that form to keep the playoffs on the radar - especially against so-so Eastern teams like New York.

Boston owns the No. 2 defensive rating in the NBA and I feel they'll clamp down on the Knicks on Tuesday. They lost the first two games of this three-game road trip, to Chicago and Memphis, and they'll be playing desperate basketball to salvage something from the roadie. 10* BEST BET

I am playing on CLEMSON. Sharp action offshore has been hammering Clemson leading up to this game - even though the public is largely on Bama - and I have to agree with the wiseguy money here.

Clemson is once again being largely underestimated as the No. 1 ranked team in the nation, just like the Tigers were in the national semifinals when they clobbered Oklahoma 37-17 as 3.5-point underdogs. I feel this is simply way too many points to be giving such a talented and explosive team like Clemson, which is the 11th-ranked offense in the nation in yards per game.

I feel the Tigers will be able to adjust no matter what looks Bama throws at them on defense with a balanced attack that averages close to 300 yards passing and over 200 yards rushing per game. It's no wonder Clemson won the yardage battle in every game it played this season - especially when you consider the team owns the 6th-ranked defense in the land in yards against.

Throw any team you like up against Clemson, this is just way too many points to be giving them and this number represents a lack of respect from the general public. And if you like trends - consider that Clemson rides a streak of four straight covers in bowl games into this game and the Tigers are also 6-0  ATS in their last six neutral site games. 10* 

I am playing on BROOKLYN. This is simply a case of the Nets getting way too many points with the advantage of home court and I like them to cover the number on Monday.

Brooklyn is 6-3 against the number this season as a double digit dog so they've had some success this year when oddsmakers give them too much leeway. I fully expect the Nets to give one of their best efforts of the season in their first game after the club fired its head coach Lionel Hollins and reassigned GM Billy King on Sunday.

Often in these spots, we see teams come out motivated in a huge effort in the next game after firing a coach, both to prove itself to the new bench boss and because the onus often ultimately falls on the players for the firing. Assistant coach Tony Brown will be the interim coach for the rest of the year, so it should help that the team doesn't have a brand new personality to get accustomed to.  

I think we might also see Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich look to use as much of his bench as he can in this game if San Antonio gets a lead. San Antonio plays back to back road games Monday and Tuesday when they face New York a night after Brooklyn. Popp has been known take this tactic in the past and it could be a prime spot for a backdoor cover even if San Antonio pulls away early. 10* Best Bet 

I’m playing on the Portland Trail Blazers as my 10* Best Bet.

Portland hosts the Oklahoma City Thunder Sunday, aiming to put an end to a three-game skid. The Blazers have dropped three in a row at home – a rare feat for a franchise that prides itself on a home-court edge inside the Rose Garden. Portland hasn’t had much trouble scoring the basketball in the past two games – putting up totals of 98 and 108 points – but hasn’t been able to get it done on defense. They catch Oklahoma City at an opportune time Sunday, with the Thunder playing a string of weaker opponents, beating up on the likes of the Lakers, Bobcats, Suns, Bucks and Nuggets during their 6-1 winning stretch - and losing to the Kings. We’re looking deeper into this streak and have watched OKC struggle at time against these opponents, most recently fighting for a 4-point win over the hapless Lakers. Oklahoma City has failed to cover in four of its last five versus Western Conference opponents and is just 10-11 ATS in conference games this season. We see another close game for a Thunder team that isn't as good as its current record would indicate.

I’m playing on Portland as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. 

I’m playing on the Minnesota Timberwolves as my 9* Afternoon Annihilator.

The Timberwolves are licking their wounds coming off a one-sided loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers Friday. Minnesota backs into this home game against the Dallas Mavericks on a five-game losing skid, but oddsmakers are handing the T-Wolves a ton of points and we can’t help but see the value in this matchup. The Mavericks are wrapping a three-game trip in Minnesota, so we expect them to start looking ahead to their next home stand. That happens to be against LeBron James and the Cavaliers. That’s followed by a showdown at Oklahoma City, so Dallas has plenty on its plate and we are expecting an unfocused Mavs side Sunday. Dallas is coming off a loss at Milwaukee and has been softer on defense in opposing arenas, allowing 103 points per game on the road compared to just under 99 at home. The Mavericks are also getting burned by turnover issues in recent games, coughing up the ball 14.3 times per game in their last three and 16 times in the loss to the Bucks. Those giveaways will equal easy points on the other end for Minnesota.

I’m playing on Minnesota as my 9* Afternoon Annihilator Sunday. 

I am playing on the GREEN BAY PACKERS. This spread is rightly a close one but I believe the Packers hold the edge here with the better quarterback and better defense statistically.

The Redskins are an overrated squad in my opinion after playing in a horrendous division all season with a weak schedule through which they could only muster a 9-7 record. The Skins didn't beat one team all season with a winning record and I just feel they are unjustly getting too much action here as a result.

While it's true Green Bay has had its struggles on offense, Washington's secondary is nothing to brag about with a ranking of 25th in the league against the pass. I think we'll see Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing attack have a big performance on Sunday and I think we'll see Green Bay's defense look more like the one that held Minnesota to 20 points and just 91 yards passing last week, rather than the one that allowed 38 points to Arizona the week before.

The Redskins have lost the yardage battle in four of their last five games and in seven of their last 10 and I feel that's a great indicator a team playing above its head. I expect Green Bay to get the win and cover on Sunday. 10* Game of the Week 

I’m playing on the Philadelphia 76ers as my 10* Best Bet.

The Sixers hold great value hosting the Toronto Raptors Saturday. Toronto, which played at Washington Friday night, finishes a three games in four nights stretch in Philadelphia and is playing the fourth stop of a five-game road trip that started with a loss to Cleveland Monday. We expect the Raptors to be a little worse for wear against the 76ers, who celebrated a win over Minnesota Monday before losing to Atlanta Thursday. Philadelphia has a young and athletic frontcourt led by Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor, who can be a handle for smaller opponents. Toronto lacks a true big-body center and will lean on Jonas Valanciunas to bang with those big men Saturday. The Raptors have been beaten up inside in recent games, allowing an average of 42.7 points in the paint over their last three contests heading into Friday. Toronto has relied on second-chance looks off offensive rebounds this season, and that’s something the Sixers have cut back on in recent outings.

I’m playing on Philadelphia as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I am playing on the Atlanta Hawks. Sports betting is all about catching spots where are you are ahead of the oddsmakers' adjustments and I feel we have a perfect opportunity like that Saturday night when the visiting Bulls come to town.

I've been watching Atlanta play recently and even though the club has lost two of its last three games, the Hawks have been playing much better team basketball and I've been waiting for them to break out. That break out came in their last game against the Sixers when they erupted for 126 points in a 28-point win where Atlanta piled up 36 assists.

That's the Hawks team we got used to seeing last year and I feel they are way undervalued Saturday night as Chicago comes in hot on a six-game winning streak. I feel that luck is about to run out for a Bulls squad that I feel will be playing on tired legs in its fifth game in nine days going up against a Hawks team playing fantastic hoops as a unit.

Atlanta's Kent Bazemore is averaging 20.3 points over his last four games and I'm expecting another big effort from him Saturday night in an Atlanta victory where they are laying a small number. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as my 10* GAME OF THE MONTH.

The Fighting Irish welcome the No. 21 Pitt Panthers to South Bend Saturday, looking for their fourth win in the last five games. Notre Dame is coming off a victory at Boston College, covering as a 9-point road favorite with a one-sided 82-54 victory. The Irish are among the top scoring teams in a conference setting the pace offensively in the nation, and face a potent attack in Pitt, which is putting up just over 85 points per game. Plenty of pundits are calling for a shootout between these two former Big East rivals and whenever you have that in the cards, you have to lean toward to the home side in their own gym. Notre Dame is averaging 83.3 points at home – almost 10 points more than on the road – and shooting just under 52 percent inside Purcell Pavilion. Pitt has struggled away from home since joining the ACC, taking a 4-13-1 ATS road skid into this matchup. Notre Dame has covered in seven of the last nine head-to-head matchups with Pitt and we see the Irish adding to that total Saturday with a convincing home win.

I’m playing on Notre Dame as my 10* ACC GOM. 

I’m playing on Kent State as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Golden Flashes come into this home stand against the Buffalo Bulls on a three-game tear, thanks in large part to an offensive surge centered around star forward Jimmy Hill. The Mid-American first teamer dropped 18 and 21 points in his last two games, igniting 104 and 87-point efforts from Kent State. Having Hall at the middle of the playbook has allowed the Golden Flashes to drop it into the post and condense opposing defenses, opening looks for perimeter players. Kent State can really run it up against a Buffalo defense allowing a MAC worst 75.4 points a night. The Bulls have allowed opponents to knock down 43 percent of their shots and with a perimeter-focused defense, that leaves plenty of room for Hill to operate inside. Last year, he scored 16 and 18 points in the two meetings with Buffalo, while dominating the glass on both ends.

I’m playing on Kent State as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

I'm playing on UCLA. Off back-to-back losses to start Pac-12 play, the Bruins figure to be in a foul mood tonight. Granted, they'll be facing a far more formidable opponent - but they'll also be doing it at home. They haven't started off 0-3 in conference play for as long as I can remember (last time was 34 years ago) and I expect their very best effort tonight. Before panicking about the winless conference start - or about a visit from the #7 Wildcats - keep in mind that UCLA has already defeated the likes of Gonzaga and Kentucky. Lets also not forget that last year's team, which advanced to the Sweet 16, also lost its first two conference games. Even with the loss at WSU, the Bruins are still a healthy 10-5 SU/ATS the last 15 times that they were off a Pac-12 setback. The Wildcats won both meetings last season. Neither of those were here at Westwood though. Payback time at Pauley Pavilion. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Bulls lost a close one at Boston last month. They weren't playing well at the time, as that was their third straight SU loss and fourth straight ATS loss. What a difference a month can make. The Bulls enter tonight's game off five straight wins, having covered the spread in four of those, each of the last three. While that streak figures to come to an end in the relatively near future, I don't expect it to be tonight. The Bulls had last night off while the Celtics are off a hard fought and disappointing loss vs. the Pistons. This will be their third game in the past four nights. The Bulls are 9-1 SU the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. I expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Both these teams have struggled of late and both view tonight's game as an opportunity to earn a rare victory. Playing at home, I believe the T-Wolves will have the edge. This will already be the fourth meeting of the season. The teams split the first two at Denver. Then, the Nuggets won the most recent game, a 112-100 "upset" here at Minnesota. Note that the T-Wolves were favored by -6.5 points for that one, so we're getting a far more favorable line tonight. The fact that they lost that the most recent meeting, and that it was here, puts the T-Wolves in one of their best roles. The Wolves check in at a profitable 38-20 ATS their last 58 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. They skipped Tuesday's regular practice to instead "discuss strategy" and I expect it pay dividends on the court tonight. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on GEORGIA. Off a loss to begin conference play, the Bulldogs are chomping at the bit to get back at someone. The Tigers should represent the perfect opponent as Georgia is 3-0 SU/ATS against Missouri the past couple of seasons. The two most recent meetings, both here at Georgia, saw the Bulldogs win by scores of 68-44 and 71-56. I expect another double-digit victory for the home team tonight. The Tigers have only played two true road games and they lost those by an average of 24 points each. Factoring in neutral court games, they're 0-5 on the road. The Bulldogs are stingy defensively and capable offensively. Yante Manten (16.6, 7.5) has emerged as a bigtime force inside while Frazier, Gaines and Mann form a strong backcourt, one which combines for 39+ points per game. That should be more than enough to take care of business against a young Missouri team playing its first SEC game of the season. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on DALLAS.

The Kings had their way with the Mavs when these teams met at the end of November. However, that game was at Sacramento and the Kings were well-rested. Tonight's meeting sets up differently. Not only is the venue now at Dallas but the well-rested Mavs will host a Kings team which played at OKC last night and which will be playing in its third different city in the past four days. Off a 10-5-98 loss vs. New Orleans on 1/2, which was preceded by a New Year's Day loss at Miami, the revenge-minded Mavs should be motivated for a big effort in order to secure their first win of the year. They've 9-3 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game and 3-0 ATS when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Payback time.

10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on SYRACUSE.

The Tigers are off an impressive win over Florida State. However, they're just 7-11-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons off a conference win. Additionally, that victory came at home. On the road, the Tigers are 0-3, losing by 11 at UNC, by 23 at Georgia and by six at Minnesota. Including neutral site games, they're only 1-4 getting outscored by an average of 76 to 68.2. Coming off losses at Miami and at Pittsburgh, the Orange have also struggled on the road. However, they've been much better as the home team. The Orange won by 13 against the Tigers here last season. Motivated to avoid their first 0-3 conference start since the mid-90s, another double-digit won't surprise.

10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE.

This is a lot of points to be getting with a team which has won back-to-back games (road wins @ Indiana and Minnesota) and which has a winning record on its home floor. The Bucks did get blown out at San Antonio a few weeks back. However, they're playing better since then, haven covered 10 of their last 15. While the Spurs are clearly playing very well, the Bucks aren't intimidated by anyone and their win over the Warriors on this floor should give them the confidence that they can pull off the upset tonight. Grab the points.

10* Best Bet

I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA.

The Tar Heels have won five straight in this series and they've won seven of the past eight here. Each of the last five meetings (all UNC wins) has been decided by at least four points. The Tar Heels won their last two visits here by five and six points, respectively. This year's UNC team can score points with the best of them; they're averaging 89 points over their past five. They turned up the defensive intensity in the second half last time out, rallying from a 9-point deficit. Leading scorer Johnson noted: "We just decided to get some stops and win. That was the biggest thing. We wanted to just stop, I mean we were scoring and doing what we needed to do. We just needed a couple of stops to get a win. And that's what we did." I believe The Tar Heels will build some positive momentum from that victory and that they'll again be too much for the Noles, who are off a 9-point loss at Clemson, to handle.

10* Main Event

I'm playing on GREEN BAY.

Off a 38-8 loss at Arizona, many are asking what happened to the once mighty Packers? I'm not ready to write them off because of one bad game though. After all, it was their second straight road game and they were up against a tough Arizona team. Now, they're back home where they've won 18 of 24 games the past few seasons. Now, they're facing a familiar foe that they hammered last month at Minnesota, one which they destroyed in last year's meeting here. While the Vikings have admittedly improved, I look for another win and cover for the Pack.

10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on CALIFORNIA.

The Utes bring the higher ranking into this evening's contest. However, I feel that the Bears are favored for good reason. The Bears haven't lost at home yet and they're chomping at the bit at the opportunity to take down a ranked opponent here. While the Utes have already done some good things (like beating Duke) they're also off a tough 70-68 OT loss at Stanford on Friday night, a game which saw them miss their final seven free throws (3 in OT) while committing 19 turnovers. I won't be surprised if they suffer negatively from that setback tonight. Cal, on the other hand, comes in off a momentum-building blowout of Colorado, its second straight double-digit victory and fourth straight cover.

10* Personal Favorite 

I'm playing on SEATTLE.

The Cardinals are rolling and come in off an impressive blowout of Green Bay. The Seahawks are off a loss vs. the lowly Rams. That will have most backing the home team. The Hawks haven't forgotten that the Cards beat them up in Seattle though. They also know that they could use some momentum going into the playoffs AND that they could meet Arizona in the playoffs. While I respect the Cards, I won't be surprised to see the Hawks step up and score the upset.

10* NFC West G.O.M.

I'm playing on BUFFALO.

Many will likely back the Jets here because they "need" the game more. I don't expect the Bills to lack motivation though. Not with the chance to play spoiler against a hated rival. Running back Dixon called it: "the Bills' Superbowl" and went on to say: "We got something to play for now," he said. "We been having something to play for -- that's our respect and our pride. We always want that. But to send them home packing -- that would be great." The Bills haven't lost here since way back in mid-October. They beat the Jets at NY and I expect them to give them all they can handle again here.

10* AFC GOW

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA.

In a game where motivation might well determine who covers the spread, I believe that the Chip Kelly release may well give the Eagles the edge. While Kelly had some supporters, there were also a number of players who weren't on board with his approach and/or personality. I believe they'll come together in an effort to show they're better off without him and that they really were better than the 6-9 record Kelly left them with. The Eagles are 2-0 ATS off a division loss, defeating the Jets and Saints by a combined 53-34 margin. An outright victory won't surprise.

10* best bet. 

I'm playing on INDIANA.

These teams have split a pair of meetings at Detroit. Including those results, the Pistons are an impressive 11-5 at home. They aren't nearly as good on the road though. Indeed, they're only 7-10 SU/ATS away from Detroit. Note they're just 6-14 SU/ATS the last 20 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. They'll be facing a Pacers team which outscores teams by an average margin of 103.2 to 97.2 here. I feel the number could easily be higher and am expecting a win and cover for the home team.

10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA.

These teams both bring top 20 rankings into this evening's contest; each is very capable. I like how the Sooners match up against them though. Iowa State's biggest weakness is arguably defending the three-point shot (currently last in the Big 12 in that category) and that's a strength of the Oklahoma offense. The Sooners can get it done on the defensive end of the floor, too. Only two teams have shot better than 40% against them and teams are shooting only 35.6% (2nd best in the country) for the season.

10* Main Event

I'm playing on TCU in the Alamo Bowl.

I released this selection prior to the news about Boykin, the Frogs' starting QB who is suspended. Unfortunately, I'm locked in with the Frogs at a pick 'em price, one of the drawbacks of releasing plays early. Needless to say, I would have preferred the adjusted (post-suspension) line, which I feel is offering excellent value. I'm not writing off the Frogs chances of winning outright though. We just saw Baylor overcome some key losses. Many wrote off the Bears but they rallied together and overcame the adversity. Likewise with Clemson. The Tigers seemingly weren't affected by suspensions, as they hammered Oklahoma. Speaking of Oklahoma, the Frogs very nearly defeated the Sooners (30-29 loss) in a game they played without Boykin. Admittedly, the Boykin loss is indeed a big deal. However, as noted, the Frogs have shown that they can compete against top tier opponents without him. They'll be up against a porous Oregon defense which allows 36.7 ppg and more than 480 ypg. That defense may have a slight emotional letdown now that they know they won't be facing TCU's #1 QB. Gary Patterson has been outstanding when given extra time to prepare. Don't be surprised when the Frogs find a way to win.

10* Main Event

I’m playing on OKLAHOMA STATE in the Sugar Bowl.

The Rebels come in as the hotter team. They won their final two games while the Cowboys lost their last two. Those results have helped to provide us with some additional line value, as the Cowboys are considerable underdogs. I like their chances partly due to an ability to play well away from home. Indeed, this team was a perfect 5-0 on the road this season, winning at Texas, West Virginia and Texas Tech. While OK. State outscored teams by more than eight points per game, when on the road, Ole Miss was outscored by an average score of 31.6 to 28.4, when playing away from home. The Rebels, who were destroyed by a Big 12 team in last year’s bowl, will play without defensive star Nkemdiche. He’s a dynamic player and I expect his absence to prove significant. The Cowboys have shown an ability to come back (erase deficits) and also to win close games. I’m grabbing the points.

10* GOW

I'm playing on IOWA in the Rose Bowl.

The Hawkeyes don't get much respect from the betting public and come in as considerable underdogs. I believe they're better than many realize though. Keep in mind that this is a team which lost only once all season - and that loss was by a field goal. Remember, this is a team which has road wins at venues like Nebraska, Northwestern and Wisconsin. (Iowa was the only team to win at NW and one of only two teams to win at Wisconsin.) While wins at NW and Wisconsin might not sound like much, Stanford can respect how difficult winning at NW actually was this season. The Cardinal lost 16-6 when they played there. That was one of five games that Stanford played which were decided by 10 or fewer points; three of Stanford's final six games were decided by exactly two points. Iowa saw four of its final five decided by eight or less and was involved in seven games which were decided by 10 or less. Another close one won't surprise.

10*

I'm playing on FLORIDA in the Citrus Bowl.

This has been a comeback year of sorts for both programs. Each has fallen from its former glory in recent years. Each is now back playing a New Year's Day Bowl game. That said, motivation doesn't figure to be a problem for either side. Many seem to feel Michigan has a superior offense, the reason the Wolverines are favored. I'm not so sure that's true though. Yes, the Gators offense really struggled down the stretch. This is still a team which scored 27 or more points six times, four times vs. SEC opponents. They've had plenty of time to work on fixing the offense. On the other side of the ball, the Gators are as good as it gets; they held six opponents to 14 or fewer points. I believe that they're better than the Michigan defense, which lost a pair of key defensive linemen (Ojemudia and Glasgow) in late November, currently is. With an O/U line currently below the 40-mark, points are expected to be at a premium. I'm grabbing all I can get with the hungry and dangerous underdog.

10* WINNER

I'm playing on OHIO STATE in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Irish bring a much better ATS record to the table. However, I believe the Buckeyes are the superior team. Off a 42-13 thrashing of Michigan, the Buckeyes are full of confidence. If you've followed my plays over the years, you'll know that I've successfully played against the Irish several times in January Bowl games this millennium. (They've played five January bowl games since 2001 and each has resulted in a double-digit loss.) Speaking of history, 13 of the last 16 Fiesta Bowls (incl. 5 of the L6) have been decided by at least seven points. I expect history to repeat itself, the Irish and their fans enduring another double-digit setback.

10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on BYU.

The Gaels are off to an impressive start. However, they arguably haven't played as difficult a schedule as BYU. I expect their recent trip to the islands to provide the battle-tested Cougars with an edge. Yes, they did lose an OT game against Harvard. However, they bounced back by dominating New Mexico by 30 and then controlling a solid Northern Iowa team, en route to an 8-point win. While the teams have split the past six meetings, the three St. Mary's victories have come by an average of only 4.3 points, four of the six meetings being decided by seven or fewer points. Watching this one also going down to the wire won't surprise.

10* Best Bet

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE in the Cotton Bowl Classic.

The perception is that the Spartans are lucky to be here. That may be partly true - as the blocked punt play against Michigan was certainly pretty fortunate. The fact is that they were right there with Ohio State before that play though. This is a team that hasn't been blown out by anyone; the Spartans' lone loss came by a single point. As per usual, Alabama represents a formidable challenge. The Tide aren't unbeatable though, as evidenced by their loss vs. Ole Miss. Tennessee was another team which played the Tide close, losing by just five. The Spartans have won 18 of their last 20 against teams with a winning record and they're 6-1-1 ATS their last eight when getting points. I like their ability to "scratch and claw" their way to victory and I look for them to give the Tide all they can handle.

10* Main Event

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS.

The Clippers easily. handled the Pelicans when the teams met last month. That was at LA though. The Clippers had Blake Griffin in the lineup and they were playing with a day's worth of rest in between games. None of those things are true for this evening's rematch. This time, the Clippers are off a game last night, while facing a rested Pelicans team. This time, the Clippers on the road. This time, they'll be sans Griffin; he had 20 points, six boards and six assists in last month's meeting. This is arguably worse than just a typical b2b spot for the Clippers, as they'll be playing their fifth game already since Christmas. The Pelicans have won three straight games on this floor. I expect them to make it four in a row, covering the small number along the way.

10* GOW

I'm playing on CLEMSON in the Orange Bowl.

There will be a lot of talk about the three Clemson players who are suspended for this game and that will be one of the reasons many will favor Oklahoma. Only one player (Cain) was relevant though, as the other two didn't play. And, although Cain was the second leading receiver, he's being replaced by a senior (Peake) who had almost identical numbers as Cain. While some might see the suspensions as a distraction, I believe that they'll help bring the team even closer together. The Tigers are 29-14-1 ATS their last 44 as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. Behind a big game from star Deshaun Watson, I expect at least another cover on New Year's Eve.

*10 GAME OF THE MONTH

I'm playing on USC in the Holiday Bowl.

The Trojans limp into tonight's bowl game, having lost two of their final three and with a 1-4 ATS mark their past five. This is a talented team, however, one which has been battle-tested against the best of the west. The Trojans have also been excellent when coming off a loss. A 40-21 victory over rival UCLA on 11/28 brought them to 8-1 SU/ATS the last nine times they were coming off a loss. Unlike USC, the Badgers have played an extremely soft schedule. They did face Alabama. However, that was way back in the first week of September and they lost by 18, as 12-point dogs. Since then, the best team they faced was Iowa. Playing at home, the Badgers only managed six points in that one, a 10-6 loss. They avoided Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. The next best team they faced, arguably, was Northwestern. The Badgers lost that one too. I look for USC to be too much for them.

10* Main Event

I'm playing on UTAH STATE.

While I'm generally not one to back too many road favorites, the Aggies have a number of advantages here. They're both the superior shooting and the superior rebounding team. While they may have handled "Life Pacific" last time out, this is not a good Spartans team. Their previous win came against "Antelope Valley." The Aggies had some trouble against the likes of Duke and BYU, going through a 4-game stretch where they went 0-4 at the betting window. That stretch has toughened them up for conference play though. Facing lesser opposition, they're off three straight double-digit wins. A blowout of North Dakota State (a team which is stronger than SJ State) last time out brought them to a profitable 26-12 ATS their last 38 when laying points. They've hammered this team for years and they won by 22 here last season. I see another double-digit win in the cards.

10* Personal Favorite  

I'm playing on LSU in the Texas Bowl.

Regardless of whether this is Les Miles final game with LSU, I expect the Tigers to close their season with a one-sided victory. The Red Raiders have serious trouble stopping the run, ranking an awful 126th in the country. Meanwhile, the Tigers bring a back to the table (Fournette) who averaged more rushing yards per game than any other player in the country. I expect that to spell trouble for the underdog. Look for Fournette to go off as the motivated Tigers win in decisive fashion.

10* Main Event

I'm playing on HOUSTON.

The situation favors the home team here. The Hawks are off a big game at Indiana last night. The Rockets will play with two day's worth of rest. That's noteworthy as they're an impressive 23-5 SU and 20-8 ATS the past couple of seasons when playing with exactly two day's rest. A narrow loss at New Orleans last game notwithstanding, the Rockets are showing signs of coming around. They're 4-2 SU/ATS their last six. They've also won seven straight here at home, covering the last six of those. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to extend their streak here for at least another day.

10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on WISCONSIN.

The Boilermakers boast a talented team and enter conference play with considerably higher expectations than the Badgers. They know winner here is never easy though. I don't expect it to be easy tonight either, as I expect the Badgers to be extremely hungry. In their first game under new coach Gard, the Badgers nearly blew a 30-point second half. That caused Ethan Happ to comment: ''It was embarrassing to our program. It was embarrassing to us. I know it made me sick. I'm sure it made the other guys sick as well. We cannot play like that in the Big Ten season and expect to win at any point in the game.'' Look for them to Badgers to be much better, en route to at least a cover.

10* Main Event

I'm playing on BAYLOR in the Russell Athletic Bowl.

These teams can both light up the scoreboard. UNC comes in averaging an impressive 40.9 ppg. Baylor boasts an even better 48 ppg. The difference is much greater when you look at their points away from home though. When playing on the road, the Tar Heels average 31.5 ppg. The Bears, on the other hand, average 47 ppg (600.7 ypg!) on the road, showing an ability to put up a big number, regardless of venue. Of course, Baylor's offense has taken a hit due to injuries at key positions. That has most expecting a win for the Heels. I believe the Briles and the Bears have had time to adapt and look for them to surprise.

10* best bet

I'm playing on CALIFORNIA in the Armed Forces Bowl.

I won with the Falcons in their final regular season game, a cover at San Diego State, a game they lost by three points. So, I'm aware that they've fared well in the underdog role. I feel that Air Force will have trouble keeping up with a superior opponent on Tuesday afternoon though. The same San Diego State team that defeated the Falcons was destroyed (35-7) by Cal, the only Mountain West team that the Bears faced. The Bears are battle-tested, having faced the best of the west. They're stepping down in class and I'm expecting a double-digit win.

10* Annihilator

I'm playing on PHOENIX.

This is a tough spot for the Cavs. They battled the Warriors on Christmas Day and then had to play Portland the very next day. That makes this their third road game in four days and they know that they'll play at Denver tomorrow night. While the Suns also played Boxing Day, they had enjoyed both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day without playing. They also get tomorrow off. Motivated by a loss against the lowly 76'ers, I expect the Bledsoe-less Suns to bring their best effort en route to at least a cover.

10* Best Bet

I'm playing on DENVER.

While they've had an extra day to work with, this is still a tough scheduling spot for the Bengals. Still without their starting QB, they play the second of B2B road games, having played at SF last Sunday. Making matters worse, they'll be playing in the bitter cold and taking on arguably the best defense in the league. True, they've been great on the road all season. However, this is the first time that they played consecutive road games in consecutive weeks. (Only previous time they played b2b road games was separated by a bye.) Expect it to catch up with them here. Broncos roll.

10* MNF GOY

I'm taking the points with BELMONT.

The Crusaders boast the superior record and come in as small favorites. I won't be surprised to see the Bruins come away with the upset though. Belmont gave the Crusaders all they could handle when the teams met at Valparaiso earlier, losing by just four as 9-point dogs. That result should provide them with such confidence. They're a much better team here, where they're already 3-0 and an outright win for the revenge-minded Bruins is definitely not out of the question.

10* Best Bet

I am playing on MINNESOTA (vs Central Michigan) as my *10 CFB Blowout *Game of the Week* on Monday, December 28th @ 5 PM ET

Minnesota, like Nebraska, is a 5-7 bowl team. The Golden Gophers, like the Cornhuskers, are likely to get a big bowl win. The key here is strength of schedule. Minnesota played a very tough schedule whereas Central Michigan, played a much weaker schedule and yet only ended up with a slightly better record (7-5) in comparison with the Golden Gophers. The Chippewas struggle to run the ball on offense and that will allow the Minnesota defense to focus on shutting down QB Cooper Rush and the passing attack of the Chips. Central Michigan also had a new head coach coming into this year and he came over from the NFL and this is his first time in the college ranks again since the late nineties. Compare that to the continuity of a Minnesota coaching staff (minus coach Kill of course) that has been to five bowl games together. This is a big edge for the Golden Gophers who now have named coach Clayes as the full time coach. Minnesota already beat two MAC teams in the regular season and they make it three straight here by dominating an outclassed Central Michigan team. The Chippewas are on a 3-5 ATS run when they enter a game on a winning streak of two games or more. Minnesota's regular season ended with a loss to Wisconsin and the Golden Gophers are 5-0 ATS this season when off of a loss to a conference rival. Look for that ATS record to improve to 6-0 with a big win in the Quick Lane Bowl Monday.

I am playing on PITTSBURGH (vs Navy) as my *10 MILITARY BOWL *ROUT* on Monday, December 28th @ 2:30 PM ET

Revenge game for Pittsburgh as these teams met in 2013 and Navy came away with a 3-point victory. The Panthers had a tough late season schedule and dropped 3 of their last 5 games but Pitt did start the season 6-1 and are fully capable of dominating like they did earlier in the season. The Panthers were very strong on defense this season and that is critical to shutting down the option attack of Navy. The Panthers do match up well against the offense of Midshipmen and that takes away Navy's biggest advantage over opponents...that is, those that are ill prepared or simply not capable of stopping the option attack. Pitt has had plenty of time to prepare for this game and the Panthers defense is their strength. Navy's regular season (before the Army game) ended in disappointment as Houston defeated them handily and that took away their shot at playing for the AAC title. The Midshipmen followed up the disappointing loss to the Cougars with a lackluster effort against Army and are truly stumbling into this bowl game. Pittsburgh already faced the option earlier this season (against Georgia Tech) and the Panthers defense gained valuable experience in that game and Pitt's D has come a long way since then. Pittsburgh also traveled well this season as they went 5-1 ATS in road games. Navy is 14-21 ATS in games against the ACC and, the Midshipmen are outclassed again Monday in the Military Bowl.

I am playing on MINNESOTA (vs NY Giants) as my *10 SNF Game of the Year on Sunday @ 8:30 PM ET - With the Eagles falling to the Redskins on Saturday night, the Giants are eliminated from post-season contention as Washington locked up the NFC East. It's tough to see the Giants offense having a lot of push tonight with the disappointing result of last night's game. That said, I don't look for the Giants to be able to match the intensity that the Vikings bring into this game. Minnesota is still locked in a dogfight in the NFC North and will be bringing their "A game" tonight. The Vikings last five games against teams with a losing record have seen them allow just 15.8 points per game and all 5 games resulted in Minnesota victories. The Vikes are an incredible 11-3 ATS this season and the Giants are limping into this game with straight-up losses in 4 of their last 5 games. In week 14 the Giants played on Monday night while the Vikings played on Thursday night. The physical toll for New York of now playing their 3rd game in 14 days is a tough one compared to a Vikings team playing their 3rd game in 18 days. In addition to the physical toll, the emotional toll of the recent losses and knowing your season is over is a tough one for the Giants (after Redskins wrapped up NFC East last night) while the Vikings got a big boost with their huge 38-17 win over Chicago last week. This one should be ALL Minnesota on Sunday night.

I am playing on MEMPHIS (vs LA Lakers) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Sunday @ 6:05 PM ET - Of course it goes without saying that the Lakers are one of the worst teams in the league but they have gone 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Memphis. That said, the Grizzlies certainly won't overlook the Lakers as they don't want another tight victory here; Memphis wants a blowout. The Grizzlies are coming off of back to back losses at Washington before Christmas and then at Charlotte yesterday. As a result, there is no doubt that Memphis will bring plenty of intensity to the floor Sunday against the Lakers. Only once this entire season has Memphis had a lost streak go further than two games. That said, they will be ready to pound LA on Sunday. The Lakers come into this game with a 2-5 ATS mark as a road dog set in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. The Lakers are also 0-5 ATS against Southwest Division opponents this season. Look for ATS loss #6 to come in on Sunday as the Lakers are in the wrong place at the wrong time. It's the perfect spot for Memphis to impose their will 

I am playing on OHIO STATE (vs South Carolina State) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 6 PM ET - South Carolina State comes from the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC). Not only is that one of the weakest conferences in the nation, the Bulldogs also are among the bottom half of the teams in the conference. Last season South Carolina State went 11-22 on the year and this season, despite playing a weak schedule, they are off to another rough start with a 5-8 mark thusfar. Last season the Bulldogs had trouble with their offense. Though the offense has improved early this season, South Carolina State is not defending well and they will have all sorts of trouble trying to stop the talented players a Big Ten team like Ohio State has. The Buckeyes are only 7-5 on the season but they've played some tough opposition early this season. Also, five of Ohio State's seven wins have come by a margin of at least 20 points. This is another game that has blowout written all over it for the Buckeyes. This is Ohio State's final tune-up before Big Ten conference action gets underway (they face Minnesota Wednesday) and the Buckeyes will make sure they're ready to go by giving the full 40 minute performance against an overmatched Bulldogs team Sunday. Ohio State is 3-0 ATS this season and 9-3 ATS the last three seasons combined in home games with a total set in a range of 135 to 139.5 points. 

I am playing on SEATTLE (vs St Louis) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 4:25 ET - The Seahawks have not only won five straight games, Seattle has simply been dominating opponents. In the five game win streak, Seattle has won games by an average margin of 20.4 points per victory. Needless to say, St Louis is in trouble here. The Rams are off of back to back wins but those victories came at home. On the road, the Rams are 1-5 straight-up (and 1-4-1 ATS) this season. St Louis, before the back to back home wins, had lost five straight games and averaged scoring only 10.8 points per game in those contests. This is also a revenge game for the Seahawks because they lost their season opener at St Louis by a field goal. That 34-31 defeat is a loss that Seattle will want to avenge in a big way on Sunday afternoon. Seattle's last two home games against the Rams were victories by an average margin of 16 points per win and the Hawks should easily take Sunday's game by at least 3 TD's. In games played in the last four weeks of the regular season, Seattle is on a 9-1 ATS run. As a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, the Seahawks are on a 6-2 ATS run. In a road game with a total set in a range of 38.5 to 42 points, the Rams are on an 0-8 ATS run. This one is ALL Seattle on Sunday as they get their revenge in a big way.

I am playing on DETROIT (vs San Francisco) as my *10 Breakfast Club on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The 49'ers are simply ready to fade into the off-season. San Francisco hasn't put up much of a fight lately with 6 losses in their last 8 games. The average margin of defeat in those six losses was 14 points per defeat. The Lions are likely to put another big loss on the Niners here. Detroit is still playing with fire. The Lions got a 35-27 win over the Saints last week and that game was on the road. Detroit is back home for this week 16 match-up and the Lions have averaged 28.4 points per game in their last 5 home games. The Lions got good news on the injury front too as Calvin Johnson (ankle) is listed as probable for Sunday's game. Johnson has had some huge games at home and another one is likely against a Niners defense that ranks among the worst in the league. San Francisco's offense is also a concern here as they have been held to 17 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The 49'ers won't be able to match the potent Lions offense score for score in this one and that's why it's only a matter of time before Detroit has amassed a double digit lead in this one. The Lions, since the midway point of this season, have started to impose their will against weaker foes as Detroit is on a 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS run against teams with a losing record. The Niners are 2-5 ATS in road games this season and are also known for "mailing it in" at the end of a season with a 2-8 ATS mark the last three seasons combined in games played in the final four weeks of the regular season. This game has the perfect ingredients for a Lions blowout win.

I am playing on UCLA (vs Nebraska) as my *10 Main Event on Saturday, December 26th @ 9:15 PM ET - The Bruins won each of the last two regular season meetings between these teams. Head coach Mora (UCLA) last faced head coach Riley (Nebraska) back in 2012 and Riley's Oregon State team knocked off the Bruins. That makes this a revenge game as far as Mora is concerned as it's the first time these coaches have met since then. The Bruins are going for a 3rd straight win in bowl action while Nebraska has lost four of their last five bowls. The Cornhuskers only went 5-7 this season and, in that regard, are fortunate to even be in a bowl game. Though the Huskers made some headlines this season with their upset of Michigan State and the fact they outgained Iowa by nearly 200 yards, those two big games came at home for Nebraska. Now the Cornhuskers are in a venue (Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA) that clearly favors the Bruins. That, in addition to the fact that UCLA is a solid 8-4 team and that Mora seeks revenge against Riley all combines to make this a great spot for a big Bruins win. UCLA played the much tougher schedule in comparison with Nebraska. The Bruins have a significantly stronger pass defense in comparison with the Cornhuskers. UCLA is on a 7-3 ATS run as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points and the Bruins are on a 4-0 ATS run when entering a game with two or more weeks of rest.

I am playing on UTAH (vs LA Clippers) as my *10 NBA Game of the Week on Saturday @ 9:05 PM ET - The Jazz catch the Clippers in a tough scheduling spot here as the Clips battled with the Lakers in the late game on Christmas Day yesterday. Utah definitely has the edge in terms of being rested for this game while the Clippers had to travel from LA to Salt Lake City for this tough back to back game. The Jazz already defeated the Clippers in LA earlier this season and are 24-11-2 ATS in their last 37 home games against the Clips. Utah comes into this game on a 4-2 straight-up and ATS run in home games. The Jazz are 3-0 ATS this season in home games with a total set in a range of 195 to 199.5 points. Utah's most recent game was a loss by a margin of 18 points at Golden State on Wednesday. The Jazz are 3-1 ATS this season when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. The Clippers are off of a win against the Lakers last night but they did fail to cover the spread and are now 4-8 ATS this season in road games. As a road favorite of 3 points or less, the Clippers are on a long-term 31-53 ATS run. Look for the Jazz to improve to 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in Saturday games this season with another big home win as they take advantage of a scheduling situation that is very favorable for Utah. 

I am playing on PHILADELPHIA (vs Washington) as my Saturday NFL *Game of the Year* on Saturday @ 8:25 ET - This is the Eagles season Saturday night. Last year in Week 16 of the season these teams also met on Saturday night and a Redskins team with just 2 wins on the year got the upset win even though Philly outgained Washington by nearly 200 yards. The Eagles haven't forgotten that loss nor the loss at Washington earlier this season where a late Redskins TD pass with under a minute to go did the Eagles in. This is a do or die game for the Eagles while Washington can clinch the NFC East with a win. Look for the Eagles to bounce back after last week's tough result where Philly was done in by four turnovers in their ugly loss against Arizona. The Redskins have struggled on the road this season with a 1-5 straight-up record and 2-4 ATS mark this season. This is nothing new as the Skins are 7-15 ATS in road games the last three seasons combined and that includes an 0-3 ATS mark as a road dog of three points or less. The Eagles are on a long-term 60-41 ATS run when playing with revenge. The Redskins gave up over 450 yards of offense to the Bills last week so Washington was fortunate to get the win thanks to a rare, strong performance on offense. Prior to scoring 35 points against the Bills, the Redskins had averaged 19 points per game in their four previous games. The Redskins will struggle to keep up with an Eagles team piling up the yardage with Sam Bradford at QB. Done in by turnovers last week, the Philly offense limits mistakes and resumes their long-term series dominance of the Redskins after suffering rare, back to back losses to Washington in the last two meetings. 

I am playing on SOUTHERN MISS (vs Washington) as my *10 CFB *Game of the Week* on Saturday, December 26th @ 2:20 PM ET - A lot of value here with Southern Miss considering that the Golden Eagles went 9-4 straight up this season and also 10-3 ATS. Washington only went 6-6 on the year. The Huskies did face a tougher schedule but the Washington offense is truly a liability in this match-up. The Golden Eagles average over 500 yards and 40 points per game. The Huskies averaged less than 400 yards and 30 points per game. The value in the Heart of Dallas Bowl is with Southern Miss and the big points. The Huskies improved this season but they are still a young team that could struggle in a bowl setting. Last year was head coach Petersen's first bowl as the Huskies coach and all the success at Boise State did not translate over immediately as Washington lost 30-22 in the Cactus Bowl last year. With only 9 returning starters this season, the youth of this team will be an issue in this year's bowl. Southern Miss went a perfect 4-0 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Golden Eagles averaged 52 points per game in their last four games this season. The Huskies were held to 23 points or less in two of their last four games this season. Look for Southern Mississippi's potent offense to keep them in this game all the way through. 

I am playing on OKLAHOMA (vs Harvard) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Friday @ 9 PM ET - With Oklahoma off of a tight win over Hawaii (by just 3 points), there is some line value created here. The line on the Sooners for Christmas Day has been kept lower than it should be. Oklahoma is undefeated on the season and, prior to the win over Hawaii, the Sooners prior 8 wins came by an average margin of 26.4 points per victory. That said, covering 14 against an over-matched Harvard team should not be a problem. The Crimson lost an 'all-everything player' with the loss of Wesley Saunders from last season's team. It's evident this has impacted Harvard as they are only 5-6 this season. The Crimson just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Oklahoma. While Harvard is averaging 67 points per game this season, the Sooners are averaging 87 points per game this season. Harvard is 3-5 away from home this season while Oklahoma comes into this one undefeated. Don't be fooled by the Crimson allowing just 51 points to Auburn. In their four prior games, Harvard allowed 76.5 points per game. The Crimson won't be able to stop Oklahoma and this one will be all Sooners as Harvard continues to show they are below the level of the teams here that recently produced 5 straight Ivy League titles and four straight appearances in the Big Dance. Oklahoma got their "wake-up call" against Hawaii and that means the Sooners won't take Harvard lightly.

I am playing on HOUSTON (vs San Antonio) as my *10 Main Event on Friday @ 8:05 PM ET - The Rockets host the Spurs with a shot at revenge in this heated rivalry. These teams are separated by less than 200 miles and, as a result, there is certainly "no love lost" between these rivals. The Spurs managed to win each of the last three meetings between the clubs last season and that means payback is the order of the day for Houston on Christmas Day. The Rockets are off of a loss at Orlando but had won 10 of their 14 prior games. As strong as the Spurs have been this season, it is still difficult to justify San Antonio being favored by a big margin on the road against a tough rival. In the Rockets current 10-5 run their last 15 games only 2 of the 15 games was a Rockets loss by a margin of more than 6 points. San Antonio is on an 18-25 ATS run in divisional games. The Rockets are on an 8-4 ATS run this month and have covered 44 of 69 games the past three seasons when their prior game was a non-conference game. After playing very solid defense for three straight games (all wins) Houston really let up on the defensive end in their loss at Orlando. Look for the solid D to resume on their home floor on Christmas Day and the Rockets should absolutely be in this game all the way Friday evening. That means great line value is being offered with the points in this one.

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (@ Oakland) as my *10 NFL Game of the Week on Thursday @ 8:25 ET - San Diego is unlikely to have a letdown here as the revenge-minded Chargers play loose and build momentum from last week's emotional team win over the Dolphins. San Diego dominated Miami with edges of 26 to 13 in first downs and 442 to 231 in yardage. The Chargers are seeking revenge here for the 37 to 29 home loss to the Raiders in late October. Oakland comes into this game off of an ugly home loss to the Packers last week as early Raiders turnovers led to 14 quick points for Green Bay. That defeat officially eliminated Oakland from playoff contention and they are simply putting the wraps on another disappointing season while the Chargers are trying to "save face" here at the end of the season and that started with how hard they played in last week's big win over Miami. The Raiders are a very poor 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite and they appear to very over-priced in this spot. Take advantage with the underdog Chargers in this one. 

I am playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (vs Cincinnati) as my *10 BEST BET on Thursday, December 24th @ 8 PM ET - QB Gunner Kiel is out for Cincinnati and QB Maxwell Smith is out for San Diego State. The key difference of how these teams are impacted by the injury situation at QB is that the Bearcats rely heavily on their passing attack while the Aztecs rely much less on the pass and much more on their ground game. The potent San Diego State rushing attack is led by RB Donnel Pumphrey who is the Offensive Player of the Year for the Mountain West Conference. The Bearcats allow nearly 200 rushing yards per game and an average of 5 yards per carry and I expect the weak Cincy run defense to be exploited by San Diego State in this game. The Aztecs have the much better defense in this match-up as they allowed just 17 points per game this season while Cincinnati was rolled for 30 points per game. Off the loss in last year's bowl game against Air Force, San Diego State wants to make the most of the opportunity this season and I look for them to roll to the solid victory here as a power ground game and the better defense is the perfect combo to back a team especially when they are in this fantastic price range!

I am playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN (vs Middle Tennessee State) as my *10 ANNIHILATOR on Thursday, December 24th @ Noon ET - The Broncos, coming from the Mid-American Conference, played a tougher schedule than did Middle Tennessee State, coming from the SunBelt Conference. Western Michigan got a big upset win on the road at Toledo in their regular season finale. Knocking off a solid team like the Rockets on the road gives the Broncos a huge boost of confidence heading into the season finale. The Blue Raiders come into this game on a strong season-ending run but faced some ultra weak competition to wrap up the regular season with games against the likes of Florida Atlantic, North Texas, and UT-San Antonio. That could leave the Middle Tennessee State ill-prepared for the challenges they will face with a solid MAC team Thursday. Western Michigan is 8-4 ATS when off of a win against a conference rival while MTSU is 6-9 ATS when off of a win over a conference foe. Also, the Blue Raiders are 2-4 ATS when off of a bye week and 2-5 ATS as an underdog when the line is set in a range of +3.5 to +10 points. Western Michigan averages nearly 500 yards of offense per game and has the better rushing attack in this match-up. Look for that to be the difference as the Broncos grind out the bowl win in the Bahamas.

I am playing on PHOENIX (vs Denver) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Wednesday @ 10:05 PM ET - The Suns host Denver in the perfect spot for a blowout. The Nuggets hosted the Lakers last night and then had to travel west for one final game before a Christmas break. It's more than just a back to back as it's also a lookahead to some time off for Denver. The Phoenix situation is different as they were off yesterday and that game the Suns even more time to think about the bad loss they had at Utah on Monday. in that game Phoenix got drilled by 21 points. The Suns are 5-2 ATS this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more. Phoenix also is 21-10 ATS the past three seasons combined when off of a defeat by a double digit margin. The Suns are 26-16 ATS in their last 42 games against teams from the Northwest Division. Denver has lost 5 of 6 (and gone 2-4 ATS) in their games against teams from the Pacific Division this season. The Nuggets are only 2-4 SU in the 2nd night of back to backs this season. Also, Denver has lost 3 of 4 in the 2nd night of a back to back when the first game is at home (thin air in Denver) and the 2nd game is on the road (always tough to travel for a back to back). Situation is great here for a Phoenix win by a double digit margin. 

I am playing on BAYLOR (vs New Mexico State) as my *10 CBB *Game of the Month* on 8 PM ET - The Bears are a surprising 0-4 ATS on the season and that is certainly helping to keep this line lower than it should be. That, plus the fact that Baylor is off of a rare straight-up loss (just their 2nd of the season) has me going with a very strong play here. The Bears are a solid 8-2 on the season but they are angry as they are coming off of an ugly loss at Texas A & M by a 19 point margin. Now Baylor is back home and ready to get the bad taste out of their mouth after being embarrassed by the Aggies. The Bears go from facing one Aggies to team to hosting another Aggies team. New Mexico State visits Waco Wednesday night. The Aggies are off of back to back wins but the recent road win they had was their first of the season as they are 1-3 SU and ATS in road games this season. New Mexico State is on a 4-9 ATS run against Big 12 opponents and also an 8-14 ATS run as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. Baylor, coming into this season, had gone 4-1 ATS when they entered a game having to failed to cover each of their last three games. The Bears also are 3-1 SU and 2-1 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Baylor is not happy at all with what transpired at College Station and the Bears will respond in a huge way Wednesday. New Mexico State came into this season having lost four of their top six scorers from last season's team. It shows as the Aggies already have 5 losses on the season.

I am playing on CALIFORNIA (@ Virginia) as my *10 ESPN2 Main Event on Tuesday @ 9 PM ET - The Golden Bears, based on this line, certainly are not getting the respect they deserve as a solid Pac-12 team is off to a 9-2 start to the season. Of course Virginia is 9-1 on the season and certainly ranks among the top teams in the country so far this season. However, Cal is a formidable foe that can challenge the Cavaliers in this one. The Golden Bears entered this season projected by some to be a Sweet Sixteen level team. Cal has tremendous talent and is well-coached. The Bears come into this game having won 5 straight games. One of their two losses this season came by just four points. The Golden Bears are shooting the ball very well this season. On the other end, the California defense has been exceptional ever since the aforementioned 4 point loss. That defeat followed Cal's only other loss this season and those back to back defeats seemed to be a wake-up call for the team. The Golden Bears are on a long-term run of 8-4 ATS as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Cavaliers are off of a big win over Villanova by a final count of 86-75. The Cavs are 2-5 ATS the last three seasons when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. After that big win, it is hard for Virginia not to be a little "flat" here and the Golden Bears have the talent to be dangerous underdog in this situation.

I am playing on DREXEL (vs Pennsylvania) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Tuesday @ 7 PM ET - Nice contrarian angle here as the 1-8 Drexel Dragons face a 5-5 Pennsylvania team. The quick reaction here would of course be to go against the team that has such a poor record so far this season, especially considering that the Dragons are laying points here. However, Drexel has played the much tougher schedule early this season and there is a lot of value with the Dragons in this spot. Penn is off of a win but previously had lost 5 of their last 6 games. The Quakers also have a lookahead in effect here as it is hard to get excited about playing a 1-8 team when you have a big game on deck with Villanova up next. All of these are Philly-area teams but the Wildcats are the top team in the area of course. The Quakers defense has faded lately with weak performances and that is a concern heading into a match-up with a Drexel team that is so hungry to get back into the win column. While Penn comes into this game off of a win, the Dragons have lost back to back games and are suffering through an ugly 1-8 start to the season. Penn is on a 10-15 ATS run in road games. Drexel has played mostly neutral site games and road games early this season so they are happy to be back on their home floor here and I look for that to show up with a big home win for the Dragons Tuesday.

I am playing on UTAH STATE (vs Akron) as my *10 ANNIHILATOR on Tuesday, December 22nd @ 3:30 ET - Certainly the location of this game (in Idaho) favors the Aggies. Utah State surprisingly did lose 6 games this season and, sitting at 6-6, the Aggies are hungry for a win here to make sure they have a winning season. The Zips are coached by Bowden and, with Auburn, he went to 3 bowls and compiled an 0-3 ATS record. Akron is a sizable dog here and they should be. Utah State played the much tougher schedule. Though both defenses look strong, the Aggies performance on that side of the ball is much more impressive as they have faced the tougher opposition. Utah State is coached by Wells and he's got a 2-0 ATS mark in bowls heading into the Idaho Potato Bowl. The Aggies might have had a better regular season were it not for QB Chuckie Keeton having some injury issues. With getting in some important late season action and now having extra time to rest prior to this game, look for Keeton to be back in top form and that will help key what should be a blowout win for Utah State. The Aggies will be focused on shutting down an offense that is one of the weakest in the MAC. Wells two bowl appearances saw his teams allow an average of just 10 points per game and I expect another dominating effort from his Aggies defense on Tuesday afternoon. 

I am playing on GONZAGA (vs Pepperdine) as a *10 Main Event on Monday @ 9 PM ET - These teams have similar records with Pepperdine at 7-4 while Gonzaga is at 8-3. However, that is where the similarities start and stop with these teams. The Bulldogs are a powerful team in a good spot ready to dominate on their home floor. Gonzaga is off of a win Saturday but they were not happy about their perimeter defense in that game as they allowed Tennessee to hit nearly 50% of their threes. Look for a stronger defensive effort tonight from a Bulldogs team that had given up just 64 points or less in 7 of their first 10 games this season. Gonzaga is hosting a Pepperdine team that is only 3-4 away from home this season. Also, the Wave have faced a much weaker schedule so far this season. Pepperdine is off of a strong defensive effort in their most recent game but they are 0-3 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Even though Gonzaga is on short rest here they have gone 19-9 ATS the last 3 seasons combined when they are playing with one day or less of rest. The Bulldogs blasted the Wave by 18 points the last time they met and that was on a neutral floor last March. At home, this one gets even uglier in terms of a blowout win for Gonzaga.