Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO 10* BB. This is the renewal of a rivalry that goes back over the years. The teams will meet again at "The Pit" next season, the second half of the home-and-home series. While the Wildcats could easily get caught patting themselves on the back after beating Texas A&M and/or looking ahead to conference play, I expect the Lobos to be "sky high" for a chance to face a ranked opponent from the Pac-12. Note that the Lobos are 11-3 ATS over the years, as road underdogs of greater than a dozen points. That includes a 5-1 ATS mark as road underdogs in the 12.5 to 15.5 range. While the Lobos have lost a few games, only one has been by more than 13 points. Off an 83-43 win, they come in with some confidence. The Wildcats are still a banged-up team, one which beat "Grand Canyon" by only 10 points its last time on this floor. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. Off four straight losses, the Hornets finally got back on track last time out, a 107-99 win at Atlanta. Back home, I expect them to follow it up with a decisive win over the Lakers. Since the win at Atlanta, the Hornets have had two days off. That break probably came at the right time, as they hadn't had more than a day off in between games for some time. Its also worth mentioning that Charlotte has thrived when playing with exactly two day's rest in recent seasons and is alreayd 2-0 SU/ATS when doing so this season, winning by an average of 13 points. The Lakers eked out a cover last time out but still lost by 11. They're just 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS on the month. Their last three losses have all been by double-digits. Charlotte was 2-0 SU/ATS against the Lakers last season, both victories coming by double-digits. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. I lost with the Bulls in their last game. So, I know that they looked pretty bad. I'm fully willing to give them another shot tonight though. The Bulls recent 3-game skid has helped to keep this line lower than it normally might be. However, off back-to-back double-digit losses of their own, the Pistons haven't exactly looked great of late either. Also, note that the Bulls are already 2-0 SU/ATS off three straight losses this season, blowing out Orlando by more than 30 points and beating San Antonio outright. Going back further finds them at 11-3 ATS the past 2+ seasons, off of three or more consecutive losses. 

With an O/U line currently at 195.5, as of this writing, note that the Pistons are 0-2 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 195 to 199.5 range while the Bulls are 2-0 SU/ATS when playing at home with a total in the same range. The Bulls, who will be looking to avenge an earlier loss at Detroit, are also 10-5 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. I like them to bounce back big tonight.

I'm playing on TENNESSEE TECH 10* BEST BET. I'm happy to grab the points here as I believe that the Golden Eagles have an excellent shot at the outright victory. Sure, the Golden Eagles have lost three straight. However, the first two of those came at Michigan State and at Tennessee and the most recent came by only two points. The loss against Lipscomb last game wasn't what they were hoping for. However, in fairness, they'd just really fought hard against the Spartans and Vols, losing by six and 12 points, easily covering in both. Including those results, they're 7-2 ATS their last nine December lined games. 

The Paladins' 6-5 record is a little deceiving, as UAB is the only good team which they've beaten. While that win was certainly impressive, it came early in the season and it required a 62% effort from beyond the 3-point line, something they haven't come close to matching since. Last time out, they shot 28% from beyond the arc, losing at home against lowly South Carolina State. Not too impressive considering that South Carolina State, hailing from the Mid-Eastern Conference, is still only 3-8 and has still been outscored by a 83.9 to 64.2 average score. 

While the Paladins are 1-3 ATS the last four times (and 4-10-1 ATS the last 15) that they were listed as road favorites of three or fewer points, during the same  the Golden Eagles are 3-1 ATS (and SU) in four tries as home underdogs of three or fewer points. With the Paladins averaging 69.8 ppg on the road and the Golden Eagles averaging 82.8 on this floor, I'm backing what should be a highly motivated home team. 

I'm playing on CENTRAL MICHIGAN 10 ME. While I respect Tulsa, I believe this line is generously high. The Golden Hurricane can score points with the best of them. However, they have trouble stopping other teams. Despite their successful overall season, they were outscored by a 36.5 to 36 margin in going 3-3 on the road. Two of their last three games were decided by a field goal or less. Speaking of close games, the Chippewas have seen three of their last four games decided by a touchdown or less. Admittedly, their offense isn't quite as potent as Tulsa's. However, they still averaged better than 400 yards of offense when playing on the road and I expect them to have success against the suspect Tulsa D. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Chippewas were 6-3 ATS off a conference loss and 9-5 ATS when facing a non-conf. opponent. During that same stretch, the Golden Hurricane were only 5-7 ATS in non-conf. action and just 1-4 ATS when favored in the -10.5 to -21 range overall. Before writing off the Chippewas, lets not forget that this team beat Oklahoma State earlier in the season. They had to deal with some injury issues but are healthier now. In what should be a high-scoring affair, I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on DALLAS 10 ME. I've successfully played against the Cowboys each of their last two games. So, some might be surprised to see me backing them here. Those were both difficult road games though. Back home, and off a rare loss, I expect them to bounce back in a big way. Note that while the Cowboys are 3-2 ATS their past five off a division loss, including a win/cover at Washington in Week 2, the Bucs are just 1-4 ATS their past five off a division win. 

While the Bucs have admittedly been playing pretty well, the Cowboys still haven't lost to any team besides the Giants all season. In fact, no "non-divisional" team has visited here and been able to stay within single digits. The Cowboys beat the Ravens by 10, the Bears by 14 and the Bengals by 14. Back on National TV, I expect them to "make a statement" with another double-digit win.

I'm playing on PHILADEDELPHIA 10* PERS FAV. As victories are hard to come by for each of these teams, they've probably both had this one circled. With the Nets having recently beaten the Lakers by double-digits and the 76ers off a double-digit loss to those same Lakers, many might want to back Brooklyn here. Not me. Playing at home, I expect the 76'ers to have the advantage. The home team won all four meetings last season. The Nets won 100-91 and 131-114 in the games at Brooklyn. However, the 76ers won 103-98 and 95-89 in the games here at Philly. This season, the Nets have just one win on the road while have tasted victory four times here at home. The 76ers are already 7-2 ATS on the season, when off a double-digit loss. With a rare chance for a victory, I expect them to "rise to the occasion" and come with the win and cover.

I'm playing on TENNESSEE 10* ME. Obviously, I have a lot of respect for Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are tough every season and thats the case again this year. That doesn't mean that we can't successfully pick spots to go against them though. Some will recall that I played on Iowa State when the Cyclones covered against Gonzaga. I thought the Bulldogs would receive a tough test that day and I look for them to get more than they bargained for again this afternoon.

While this is technically a neutral court game, its being played at Nasvhille. So, although Nasvhille and Knoxville are still a fair distance apart, the venue certainly favors the Vols. Thats noteworthy as Gonzaga has yet to play in many "hostile environments," like its going to encounter here. In fact, the Bulldogs have yet to play a "true road game" this season and most of their neutral site games, besides Florida which they faced in Orlando, have actually been pretty "neutral." Note that Gonzaga won that Florida game by just five points. Including that result, three of its four neutral site games were decided by seven or fewer points. Looking at it another way, when playing away from home, Gonzaga has only beaten one team by more than seven points all season. And that was Quinnipiac. 

Speaking of close games, the Vols have already lost by eight against Wisconsin, lost by four against Oregon and lost by two against UNC. That UNC loss was their only setback in the last six games and no team has beatem by more than eight since the first game of the season. The Vols have been money in the underdog role over the years and again so far this season. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK 10* GOW. Both these teams have been playing well for quite a few weeks now. I won with the Giants last week and feel that they're offering excellent value again here. The weather is expected to be cold, windy and very possibly wet. Those type of conditions generally don't favor a "dome team" like the Lions at the best of times. However, its worse in this case, as Stafford has an injured middle finger on his throwing hand. That might not be as big an issue if the Lions had a reliable running game. However, they're also banged up at the running back position and last week, when they hit 114, was the first time in months (since Week 2) that the Lions gained more than 100 yards on the ground. By comparison, while the Giants managed only 93 yards on the ground against Dallas, they'd topped the 100 mark in three of their previous four games. So, while the running game has also been an issue for NY, the Giants have arguably been better in that department, in recent weeks than Detroit. Of course, having a healthy QB also helps. While the Lions are 3-3 on the road, the Giants are 6-1 at home. The Lions are 4-6 ATS their last 10 December games while the Giants are now 6-3-1 ATS their last 10. I'm laying the small number. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* ANNIHILATOR. Remember when Curry almost led Davidson to an upset of Kansas in the NCAA Tournament? How about when the Wildcats actually upset the Jayhawks here at the Sprint Center? Well, those games were a long time (2008 and 2011) ago now. Curry is long gone and Davidson isn't the same team. Kansas hasn't forgotten though and I expect some payback to be in order. While the Jayhawks will head West after this, this game will be their ninth in a row played at either the Sprint Center or Allen Fieldhouse. On the other hand, the Wildcats have yet to play a home game this month. Its starting to catch up with them too, as they've lost their last two by a combined 24 points. The Jayhawks are outscoring teams by a 93.8 to 65.2 margin their past five games. Self will make sure his team remembers what happened last time; I expect him to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

I'm playing on TOLEDO 10* PERS FAV. These teams will both be hungry to get to 10 wins for the first time. I feel Toledo will have the advantage. The Rockets lost only two games on the road and those losses came at Western Michigan against a very solid Broncos team and at BYU, by only two points. When playing on the road at Arkansas State, the other team (along with Appalachian State) which dominated the Sun Belt this season, the Rockets won by a score of 31-10. Admittedly, the Mountaineers defense has been stingy. However, the two teams which had some success against them (Miami and Akron scored 45 and 38 points against them) were teams which attacked them through the air. Toledo, which won 48-17 at Akron, and which averages 38.8 ppg compared to the Zips' 27.4 ppg, has the type of offense able to also have success against the Mountaineer defense. QB Logan Woodside has 43 TD against just nine INTs this season, completing 69% of his passes and nearly 4000 yards through the air. Look for the Rockets to finish on top.

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. There are a number of reasons why I like the Aztecs. I like the fact that the Aztecs come in off a win and that they last played two weeks ago. By comparison, the Cougars are off a loss and that came way back on 11/25. Off that loss, disappointed to be here and with their coach having bolted for the greener pastures of Texas, the long layoff figures to impact the Cougars negatively. The Cougars, 0-2 ATS off a conference loss, are 3-6-1 ATS in the favorite role. I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. I like how this one sets up for the "home" team. (*Game is being played at the Moda Center in Portland.) The Pilots got a wake-up call last time out, as Texas Rio Grande took them to double-OT. I like the fact that they were able to 'survive' and eke out the win and feel that the close victory will serve them well here. While their last scheduled game (Boise State) got postponed due to a snowstorm, note that the only three teams that have beaten the Pilots this season are Colorado, UCLA and Dayton. 

True, the Coyotes are off b2b wins. However, both those games came at home and they came against the likes of Sacramento State and Montana State. They're 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS the last four times that they played away from South Dakota and the lone "cover" was a 12-point loss, as a 13-point underdog. 

Look for the close win their last time on the floor and the 'big game experience' gained from playing in the Wooden Legacy Tournament to serve the Pilots well, as they take down the Coyotes, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. As your probably saw, these teams faced each other last night, at Milwaukee. The Bucks led big almost the entire way and finished with a 108-97 victory. Back on their homecourt, I expect the revenge-minded Bulls to avenge that loss in a big way tonight. The Bulls, 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven as a host in this series, beat the Bucks by 10 and 11 points here last season. The Bulls are 7-4 at home this season, outscoring teams by a 104.5 to 99.5 margin here. The Bucks are 3-6 SU/ATS on the road, getting outscored by a 102.3 to 96.4 margin. While the Bulls have won a couple times already this season, when playing the second of b2b games, the Bucks are 0-4 SU/ATS in that situation. Payback time.

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE 10* PERS FAV. The Warriors enter tonight's game on a 4-game ATS skid. A date with the Knicks should help. While the Knicks are clearly an improved team this season, they're still not exactly consistent. Last time out, they lost at Phoenix. The Suns entered that game with a 7-17 record and a 3-7 mark at home. Now, they'll face a Warriors team which is leading the league and which is outscoring teams by more than 14 ppg here. Note that the recent ATS losses were on the road. The Warriors won their last two games here by 36 and 29 points, respectively. 

Speaking of "blowout" wins, the Warriors beat the Knicks by 21 points at MSG last season and by a whopping 36 here at Golden State. I don't feel the Knicks, who average 104.5 ppg on the road, are quite ready to keep up and am expecting the Warriors, who average 123.9 here at home, to ultimately pull away for another decisive win. 

I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. Playing at home and favored by 10 points, the Knights did not look good last game. They'd connect on less than 40% of their shots and finish with less than 50 points, an ugly 58-49 loss to Pennsylvania. Not very good when considering that the Quakers had lost four of their previous five and were off a 79-60 blowout loss against George Mason. Of course, it didn't help matters that they played without their starting point guard and leading scorer, B.J. Taylor. Now, the Knights, still sans Taylor, take to the road to face a George Washington team which is off a 79-60 blowout win, a team which hammered them last season (67-50 at UCF) and which has won four of its last five. Yikes. While the Colonials continue to play without Watanabe, they're playing well without him. They're sharing the ball well (20 assists last game) and playing good team basketball. While the blowout of Howard was to be expected, their recent win at Temple was impressive. They'll be coming in full of confidence and I expect them to keep on rolling for another day. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* BEST BET. While I respect the Rockets, I believe this line will prove to be a little too high. Yes, Houston has been winning. However, lets keep in mind that three of the Rockets' past five victories have come by four points or less. As hot as they've been, only three of their past eight games resulted in a double-digit win. Off a 116-92 blowout of the Lakers, the Kings come in with some positive momentum. While the wins haven't been there, they've quietly been very competitive. In fact, only two of their past 18 games resulted in a loss of greater than 10 points. One of those two losses came against these same Rockets, a 13-point loss on 11/25. Look for the Kings, who are only getting outscored by an average of 103.2 to 101.2 on the road this season, to be more competitive in this evening's rematch, giving their hosts all they can handle and improving to 6-3 ATS the last nine times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA 10* PERS FAV. A few weeks ago, the Bulldogs beat the Rajin' Cajuns by 14 points. While that 11/19 game was played on the football field, I expect the Bulldogs to win this evening's basketball game by a similar margin. The Cajuns bring a decent record to the table. However, the only quality team which they faced was Minnesota and they lost that one by double-digits, failing to cover as +8.5 point underdogs.

Georgia has struggled against top tier opponents but has taken care of lesser ranked teams. Three of the Bulldogs' five victories, including each of their last two, have come by double-digits.

With an O/U line in the 150s, this game is projected to play at a fairly fast tempo and to be quite high-scoring. That figures to favor Georgia. The Dawgs are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the past couple of seasons when playing a game with an O/U line in the 150s and that includes a 2-0 SU/ATS mark when playing a game here at home with a line in the 150 to 154.5 range. During the same period, the Cajuns are just 7-12 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 150s.

The Bulldogs, who lost to Marquette on 12/4, are 2-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons when playing with seven or more day's rest. They've responded to each of their previous losses with a double-digit win in their next game and I look for them to do so again here.

I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* PERS FAV. The Broncos have gotten off to a tough start. Playing at home, against a UC Riverside team which has been terrible on the road, provides the perfect opportunity to build some positive momentum. In four road games, the Highlanders have been outscored by an average score of 82-60. The Broncos actually do bring some positive momentum into tonight's game, as they just beat up on a weak team (Cal State East Bay) by a 75-50 margin. Delivering another big win against a Highlanders team which beat them by 14 last season figures to be more rewarding. Last season's game at Riverside came early on in the year and an inexperienced Broncos team was still learning how to play together. I believe that the Broncos are catching the Highlanders at the right time this season. UC Riverside, which lost by 42 points last time out and 18 the time before that, hasn't played for two weeks due to its exam break. Look for the Broncos to take advantage of the venue and schedule, avenging last season's loss in convincing fashion and improving to 6-2 ATS their last eight lined games, after failing to cover their previous three or more. 

I'm playing on MOREHEAD STATE 10* BEST BET. While the (Morehead State) Eagles have admittedly gotten off to a tough start, I believe this is a case of getting points with the better team. True, Eastern Washington has been winning while Morehead State has been losing. However, thats largely been a matter of the quality of opposition. The (Morehead State) Eagles, who have lost six straight, haven't lost seven in a row since 2006-2007. Preston Spralin, interim coach, noted "Its the great thing about college basketball, you don't have time to feel sorry for yourself ... " With an O/U line in the low 150s, this is projected to be one of the highest-scoring games on Tuesday's card. That figures to suit Morehead State just fine as its a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times that it played a game with an O/U line in the 150s. I expect those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* MAIN EVENT. I successfully played on the T-Wolves in their last game. However, that was a much different setup from this one. Not only were the T-Wolves playing at home, but they were getting double-digits by the oddsmaker. Also, they were catching their oponent playing the second of b2b games and in a four games in five nights situation. They covered, but still lost by eight. Things set up differently here. This time, while still underdogs, the T-Wolves aren't getting nearly as many points. They're also on the road, where they really struggle and facing a Chicago team which is well-rested. Note that the Bulls are 19-11 ATS (22-8 SU) the last 30 times that the played with two day's rest in between games, 2-0 SU/ATS already this season. Those wins both came by double-digits, too. The T-Wolves, who have lost four straight and eight of nine overall, are 3-9 SU/ATS on the road, getting outscored by a 109.8 to 103.5 margin. The Hawks, on the other hand, have won seven of 10 at home, outscoring teams by a 105.6 to 99.6 average. I expect them to win by more than that margin here.

I'm playing on SETON HALL 10* GOW. With a top 25 ranking and an undefeated record, South Carolina is certainly off to an impressive start. I believe that the battle-tested Pirates are favored for good reason though. The Pirates have indeed played a very tough non-conference schedule, traveling all over the place while taking on a number of top teams. By comparison, the Gamecocks have played all but one of their games at home. I expect the Pirates' experience playing away from home to serve them well for tonight's big game at MSG. It should certainly help matters that the Gamecocks will be without starting guard Sindari Thornwell, as he was suspended last week. As the Gamecocks haven't played since 12/4, this will be just their second game without him. While they were able to beat (they didn't cover) lowly FIU without him, Thornwell is a senior who leads the teams in both scoring and rebounding. He'll be missed against a Seton Hall team which averages better than 78 ppg. The Pirates, who have allowed just 57 points in consecutive games, are now 13-3 ATS (14-3 SU) the past 2+ seasons, after allowing 60 or fewer points in their previous game. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. The Heat upset the Wizards at Washington last month. I expect the Wizards to return the favor tonight. The Heat entered the 11/19 meeting at Miami off a 23-point victory and off of three straight ATS wins. Things set up differently now as the Heat are off five straight losses and aren't quite as healthy as they were a month ago. Homecourt has not been an advantage to the Heat either; they're 5-9 on the road but just 2-8 here at Miami. (That includes a 0-4 SU/ATS mark as home underdogs of three or fewer points.)

The Wizards, who are a solid 50-38 ATS when playing with 'revenge' the past couple of seasons, entered the earlier meeting having lost three of their previous four. They're starting to finally play better though, having won three of their past four. As many of you know, I've successfully backed them twice in a row. This is another winnable game that they can't afford to squander and I'm going back to the well with them one more time. 

I'm playing on NYG 10* ME. I successfully played against the Cowboys at Minnesota last Thursday and I believe that this will prove to be another good spot to do so. Note that the Cowboys, who will be playing their second consecutive road game, are still just 7-10 ATS against teams with a winning record. After they lost against Pittsburgh last week, many people seem pretty down on the Giants. However, I'm not ready to write them off yet. Keep in mind that they'd won six straight before the loss at Pittsburgh. Thats a difficult venue and the Giants were playing the second of b2b on the road. They're still 5-1 here at home, the lone loss coming by two points.

As Eli Manning noted: "Hey, we're the only team to beat Dallas and we're going against 'em at home now, and we've been playing great at home. So this is a chance to prove that we are a good team and we are a playoff team."

The Giants were only getting a single point when they played at Dallas earlier. Now, despite playing at home and having an excellent record here, they're getting more points to work with. Thats noteworthy given that three of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by three points or less, two of those by a single point. In what easily could be another close one, I look for NY to improve to 4-1 ATS the last five times it played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. 

I'm playing on ST. MARY'S 10* PERS FAV. Given their inexperience and the fact that their star player has been out all season, the Anteaters got off to a pretty solid start. However, that inexperience is starting to catch up to them and I feel that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. I said the same thing when they visited Arizona last Tuesday. That was the last time that the Anteaters faced a quality opponent and they got blown out by 22 points.

Off their first loss of the season, an unlikely 65-51 loss against Texas Arlington, the Gaels figure to be in a foul mood. With the exception of a 4-point road win at Dayton, every one of the Gaels' wins has been by double-digits this season. While UC Irvine averages 57.7 ppg on the road, St. Mary's averages 80.7 ppg here at home. Look for the Gaels to bounce back with a blowout win, improving to 9-3 ATS the last dozen times that they'd been held to 60 or fewer points in their previous game.

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* DIV GOY. Obviously, with a winless record in mid-December, the Browns have had an extremely disappointing season. The Bengals season has been arguably every bit as disappointing though. Unlike the Browns, who weren't expected to compete for the playoffs, the Bengals had high hopes this season. Instead, they find themselves all but mathematically playing out the string. The players know that even if they won every game the rest of the way, their chances are very slim. (As I undetrstand it, they'd need both the Ravens and Steelers to go 1-3, which is pretty difficult to imagine given that one of those teams will get a win when they face each other.) I don't think the Cincy players believe. 

In these "meaningless" games, its been my experience that the "more motivated" team covers more often than not. In this case, I expect that to be Cleveland. The Browns desperately want a win and getting against an instate "rival," one which already beat them this season and which has embarrassed them here each of the past two seasons, would suit them just fine. 

The Bengals, who will again be without AJ Green, have lost five straight on the road. Their lone road win came in Week 1 and that was by a single point. They're 0-6 ATS away from Cincinnati. A "revenge" home game vs. the Steelers next week offers far more reason for the Bengals to "get excited." 

The Browns, who had last week off to recover and prepare for this game, were 5-3 ATS in the final four weeks of the regular season the past two years. Grab all the points you can get, but don't be surprised when they finally break through with their first win. 

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE 10*. I successfully backed the Vikings against Dallas. However, they were at home and "getting points" in that game. Now, they're on the road and laying points, a situation/role I feel that they'll struggle with. Keep in mind that the Vikes still lost (by two) against Dallas. They've now dropped six of their last seven, going 0-4 on the road, during that skid. The Jags have remained competitive with five straight losses coming by 10 points or less. With the Vikings averaging just 16.7 ppg and 281.5 ypg on the road, I look for the Jags, motivated to give the home fans a win, to earn AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. The Wizards have had their way with the Bucks here the past couple of seasons. With the schdule in their favor, I expect them to have the advantage again this evening. While the Wizards had yesterday off, the Bucks were busy losing at Atlanta. Thats noteworthy as they haven't fared well when playing the second of b2b games. In fact, the Bucks are 0-3 SU/ATS in that sitiation so far this season, losing by 23 at Miami (also off a game vs. Atlanta) by 15 at Detroit and by 11 at Dallas. Three tries, three double-digit losses. Look for the Wizards, who know they'll have a home-and-home series with these same Bucks later this month, to take care of business on their home floor, improving to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

I'm playing on NAVY. I won with Army when these teams faced each other last season, the Black Knights covering as large underdogs. I also successfully played against Navy just last week. So, some might be surprised to see me back the Midshipmen here. Last week's play was more of a play on Temple than one against Navy. The Owls are rolling and I felt that Navy was going to have trouble against them. Last season's play on Army was a case of grabbing the value, as I felt the line was far too high. Navy, which was laying -21.5 points, only scored 21. Things are different here though as the Midshipmen are laying a touchdown, or less. 

As you likely know, Navy is down to its third string QB, after Worth got injured last game. Last week didn't work out too well for his replacement Zach Abey. We cant really judge him on that performance though. He was thrown into a game unexpectedly, facing a very good defense and he was forced to throw the ball, as Navy was behind. Things will be much different on Saturday and Abey will be able to get back to running a more typical Navy offense.

While much is being made about the fact that Navy doesn't get an extra week (like it normally does) off before this game, keep in mind that the Midshipmen have beaten the likes of Houston and Notre Dame, a team which destroyed Army 44-6 only a month ago, and that they didn't have a bye before either of those wins either. Also, while the Knights do get that extra rest, they're just 12-35 ATS (11-38 SU) the last 47 times they played after a bye. (During that stretch, Navy was 103-68 ATS when playing with six or fewer day's rest.) Even with the QB situation, I feel Navy is again the much stronger team. I expect the Midshipmen to extend their streak of dominance in this series, covering the reasonable number along the way. 

'm playing on GEORGETOWN 10* ME. A poor start at the betting window for the Hoyas has resulted in a very low line for this afternoon's game at Maui. I believe that low line is providing us with excellent value. With their wins coming against Bucknell, Lehigh, Drexel and Delaware, none of them by more than 11 points, the Explorers have to defeat a strong opponent. Losing against Villanova was obviously expected and even the loss at Temple wasn't too bad. But this La Salle team also lost a home game against Texas Southern from the SWAC Conference. Though they haven't been covering, off three straight wins, the Hoyas have started to put it together. Note that all five of this season's victories have come by at least four points. I expect them to finish on top once again, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* MAIN EVENT. I believe that there's a considerable talent gap between these teams. Playing on the "Big Ten Network" on a "stand-alone" Friday game (today's other two games both start earlier)  that Pitino will be happy to run up the score, showing the "world" that this year's team is the "real deal." Much stronger than last season, the Gophers are 8-1 so far.  They've beaten teams like Vanderbilt, Arkansas and St. John's. The Gophers, 3-0 SU/ATS against Sun Belt teams the past couple of seasons, are undefeated on this floor. Their lone loss came at Florida State. While the Gophers are allowing an average of only 62.2 ppg their last five, while holding opponents to a mere 35.9% from the field. Despite playing against lesser competition, the Eagles are allowing 74.2 ppg their last five, opposing teams hitting 47.3% of their shots. Look for the Gophers to flex their muscles in front of national audience, another dominant defensive effort leading to a convincing win and cover. 

I'm playing on DALLAS 10* BEST BET. I successfully played on the Pacers when these teams met way back on 10/26, just my second play of the season. While Indiana did win by nine, it was actually somewhat of a "fortunate" win. The Pacers had blown numerous opportunities to put the Mavs away and found themselves in a dogfight down the stretch. Fortunately, they pulled away for the cover in OT. While its true that the Mavs are dealing with some injuries at the moment, I like the fact that they're getting roughly as many points tonight as they were for that game at Indiana. Venue does matter to both these teams. Though the Mavs admittedly haven't been great here at Dallas, they do have three times as many victories here as they do on the road. Meanwhile, while they're a solid 8-4 at home, the Pacers are only 3-7 away from Indiana. The Pacers are playing the final leg of a 5-game road trip tonight. Tomorrow night, they host a Portland team which just hammered them last Wednesday, the first game of their trip. That being the case, it may be easy to look past Dallas, a team they've handled. While they have lost b2b games here, the Mavs had won two of their previous three home games. Given the fact that they get outscored by an average of 115.7 to 105.7 on the road, just asking the Pacers to win is asking a lot. I'll gladly take the generous points but I like the Mavs' chances of winning outright. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Nuggets. Last night, they fell behind big (68-52 at halftime) at Brooklyn, fought hard to get back, but ultimately lost. While not all the Nuggets' starters logged big minutes - due a frustrated Malone mixing up the lineups - it was still the type of game that figures to be difficult to immediately bounce back from. Not only will the Nuggets be playing the second of b2b games but they're also playing their third game in four days and their fifth game in the past seven. The Wizards, who had last night off, have played one less game during that seven game period and that figures to make a difference down the stretch tonight. Note that the Nuggets are 0-3 the last three times (10-31 L41) that they played the second of b2b games. All three of those losses came by a minimum of seven points and they came by an average of 13. Off a loss to the Magic last time out and falling further in the standings, the Wizards can't afford to squander this very winnable game. I expect their best effort and look for them to improve to 3-1 ATS as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range.

I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S 10* PERS FAV. These schools are separated by only about 15 miles. Dating back to 1909, they've faced each other 87 times. The Red Storm are a commanding 25-3 the last 28 of those and 65-22 overall. Last year, however, was different. While St John's was inexperienced, the Rams had an experienced team, one which was sick of losing to its "rival." The Rams didn't just earn a rare win in the series, they hammered the Red Storm by a 73-57 margin. The fact that Neubauer left the Rams' starters in and continued to play "pressure defense," after the outcome was already decided, didn't sit too well with Chris Mullin.

While Marcus LoVett appears unlikely to go, playing at home, the revenge-minded Red Storm should have more than enough to take care of a Fordham team which isn't nearly as strong as last season. The Rams have lost three straight, those losses coming against the likes of Texas Arlington, Sacred Heart and Harvard. They managed a mere 52 points last time out and have been outscored by an average of 80-55.5 in two road games (0-2 SU/ATS) overall. The Red Storm got off to an ugly start but have started to play better. They're off b2b wins, averaging 85.5 points in those victories. Payback time. 

I'm playing on LA 10* ESPN MAIN EVENT. This is the first of four meetings between these teams this season. Both teams will be hungry. The Warriors want to prove they're still the best in the west while the Clippers want to prove that this year will be different. The last meeting between these teams here at LA saw the Warriors, who were laying -4 points, win by three. Another game decided in the final possession won't surprise. As good as the Warriors have been on the road - and they have been outstanding - the Clippers have arguably been very nearly as good here at LA. GS has outscored teams by 12.7 ppg on the road. LA has outscored teams by 12.6 ppg here at home. While the Warriors are obviously very dangerous offensively, the Clippers are among the best defensive teams in the league. Note that while the Warriors are just 5-4 ATS in road games with an O/U line of 210 or greater, the Clippers are 2-0 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The schedule sets up favorably for the Clippers. They've had the past two days off and they also get the next two off. The Warriors, on the other hand, have had one day off and play tomorrow. I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on SMU 10* GOW. The Horned Frogs come in with a perfect record, undefeated under coach Jamie Dixon. However, I believe the Mustangs are favored for good reason, as I expect TCU to suffer its first loss. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Mustangs are 37-3 SU on this floor, 27-3 SU in "lined" games. That includes a modest 3-2 ATS mark as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range and a perfect 5-0 ATS mark when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range. They're undefeated at home so far this season, outscoring teams by an average score of 74 to 53.6 here.

The Frogs, on the other hand, are 1-3 ATS as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, they're just 4-18 SU on the road overall. They've only played one "true" road game this season and that resulted in an ATS loss at UNLV. The Frogs deserve plenty of credit for their perfect start. Beating Washington and winning at UNLV are both worthy accomplishments. That said, this is the Frogs toughest test yet. They've got a number of freshman in the lineup (even Dixon has acknowledged the team is a work in progress) and I don't feel they're going to be quite up for it. Look for SMU, which has added forward Semi Ojeleye (transfer from Duke) who is averaging a team best 17.2 points to go along with 7.7 rebounds, to win its fifth straight in this series, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. The Hornets were embarrassed by these same Pistons here just over a week ago. Tonight should provide an excellent opportunity for some payback. For the game here last Tuesday, the Hornets were off a game the previous night and playing their fourth game in the past five days. A brutal scheduling spot. The Pistons, who had enjoyed two straight days off, came in well-rested and routed them by a 112-89 margin. The shoe is on the other foot this time though. This time, while the Pistons were busy beating Chicago, the Hornets had yesterday off. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Pistons will also be playing their third game in the past four days. While Reggie Jackson may not play in the b2b spot for the Pistons, the Hornets hope to get Marvin Williams back, which would essentially put them at full strength. Even with last week's win here, the Pistons are still only 4-8 SU/ATS on the road. Look for the revenge-minded Hornets, who can climb back above .500 here with a win, to get some payback, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* BEST BET. It would be easy enough to make a case for the Jazz; admittedly they've been playing better than the Suns. A big part of beating the NBA is about taking advantage of favorable scheduling and/or "emotional" situations. In this case, I really like how things set up for the visiting Suns. The Jazz are off a fairly hard fought game at LA last night, Hayward, Gobert and co. logging relatively heavy (36 and 39) minutes. Note that Hill has been out and likely remains a gametime decision. Also, the Jazz have continued to play without Burks and now Favors.

While the Jazz have actually been pretty good when playing their second game in two nights, they'll also be playing their third game in four nights here. The abscence of Favors figures to be magnified. Additionally, they've got a big game against Golden State on deck. That being the case, it should be easy to look past the "lowly Suns," who are off a blowout loss to those same Warriors and who the Jazz swept last season. That'll prove costly though. The Suns are well-rested, having had the past two days off. They're also hungry to bounce back from the embarrassing loss against Golden State.

While the Jazz are 7-10-1 ATS their last 18 as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range, the Suns are 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were off a double-digit loss and 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they gave up 105 or more points in their last game. Already 3-0 ATS this season, when listed as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 9 range, I like the Suns to bounce back with AT LEAST another cover.

I'm playing on RHODE ISLAND. I believe that the Monarchs are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Rams are off a tough loss against rival Providence, their second straight 3-point loss. Both came on the road though. They're back home, where they're still perfect (4-0) on the season, and I expect them to be in an angry mood.

While Rhode Island fans surely would have liked to beat the Friars, I agree with coach Dan Hurley that there's no reason to panic. Hurley had this to say: "We lost two tough road games against two pretty good teams in tough venues in games seven and eight of the nonconference. We've just got to have a little perspective and not lose our minds."

The Monarchs aren't slouches by any means, as they're a strong defensive team. That said, they only score 61.8 ppg (61.4 on the road) and they're up against a Rams team which is averaging 88 ppg on this floor. While the Rams may not hit that average tonight, its still going to be tough for the Monarchs to keep up. The Monarchs beat the Rams, at Old Dominion, last December. I expect the Rams, 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range, to return the favor, in convincing fashion, on Tuesday evening.

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* GOW. While I successfully played against the Bucks in their last game, I believe that they're offering excellent value tonight. Last time out, given the situation, I felt that the Bucks were laying a few too many points as they were favored by 10 against a revenge-minded Brooklyn team. Though the Bucks failed to cover (barely) they still won by nine points. That marked their fourth straight victory. One of those was a 118-101 win over Cleveland, too. The Bucks had yesterday off and they also have tomorrow off. Outscoring opponents by a 109.4 to 103.9 margin on this floor this season, they're going to come in full of confidence. The Spurs are on an extended hot streak and are off b2b victories. However, it should be noted that neither of those victories came by more than seven points. They beat a depleted Dallas team by only seven and then only squeaked by the Wizards by two. Note that Parker didn't play in either of those games, after tweaking his leg against the Magic on Tuesday. (Popovich has called him day-to-day.) Unlike the Bucks, the Spurs play (at Minnesota) tomorrow. That being the case, although its still early in the season, you never know when Popovich might surprise by resting a player. While we obiously won't count on that, I don't expect that we'll need to. Note that the last time that the Spurs played the front end of b2b games, they got blown out at Orlando. The Bucks are 4-2 ATS against teams from the West and I like their chances of AT LEAST another cover again tonight. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* GOW. I respect the Panthers and I won with them last week. That was a much different setup though, as they were still mathematically alive for the playoffs and as they were catching the Raiders on a short week and off a game in Mexico City. This time, however, they'll face an angry Seattle team which is playing on a 'normal' week and coming off an upset loss. Perhaps even more important, the Panther players no longer believe that the playoffs are possible. It was still an extreme longshot, even if they won last week. However, there was still no hope. Now, that hope is essentially gone. Even winning out would require a major collapse from every one. That knowledge, that the season is over and has been a major disappointment, is going to make putting in the necessary work difficult. While the Panthers are 3-5 ATS their last eight December games, the Hawks are 7-1 ATS their last eight, when playing in December.  While they knocked the Panthers out of the playoffs two seasons ago, a 31-17 win here at Seattle, the Hawks haven't forgotten last year's playoff loss at Carolina. They'll be all too happy to kick the Panthers while they're down, covering the spread along the way. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA 10*. Sandwiched in between a tough Thanksgiving Day loss at Dallas and another divisional game (Phialdephia) up next, I believe this will prove to be a difficult spot for the Redskins. The Cardinals have underachieved all season but this is still a very dangerous team. As disappointing as a season as its been, the Cards are still outscoring teams by a 21.8 to 12.7 margin here at home. They're outgaining teams by a commaning 410.3 to 287.5 margin, in terms of total yards, in games played here. The Cards are still mathematically alive for the playoffs and believe that if they "win out" that nine wins will get them to playoffs. Arians isn't thinking that far ahead but I do expect him to have his team fully ready to go to win this one. The Cards coach had this to say: "You just take them one at a time. I think once we win one, we’ll be fine. I think we'll add them up at nine and I think you have a great shot still because we’re going to be playing some of those teams that are going to be in the same spot we're in. We just have to win one." Look for the Cards, 5-0 SU/ATS their last five against teams from the NFC East, to do just that, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE 10* BEST BET. The Broncos are off a 30-27 Sunday night loss against division rival KC, the defense getting shredded in the process. Some Denver bettors might feel that was a "bad beat," as the Broncos were winning and KC rallied to win in OT. Either way, it was a tough loss, the type that can be difficult to immediately bounce back from. Note that the Broncos have now given up 30 points in two of their past three games, an average of 27.7 ppg in those three overall. Also, note that they're just 3-9-3 ATS their last 15 off a division game. The Jags continue to be competitive every week. Even if/when they do get down, they don't quit fighting. They covered at Buffalo last week and that marked their fourth straight game which was decided by seven or fewer points. Since their impressive 4-0 SU/ATS start, the Broncos have been very ordinary, going 3-4 SU/ATS, including 1-2 SU/ATS on the road. That lone road victory came by two points. Look for them to have their hands full, the Jags giving them all they can handle the entire way, once again. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. The home team won and covered both meetings last season. The Blazers were laying -6.5 for the game here and they won by 17. I expect a similar result tonight. The Blazers know that they have a difficult stretch coming up. After this game, they hit the road for five games. Then, they're back home for just one game (OKC) before hitting the road again. In other words, they absolutely need to take care of business here at home, before they go. Off a 22-point win over the Pacers last time out, Portland has now won two of three. The Heat have already had a successful road trip and may already be looking forward to getting home. They're 1-3 ATS their last four off an "upset win" and 0-4 ATS the last four times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The Blazers, who had two days off before their blwout of the Pacers, have again had two days off. They'll be fresh and I look for them to be hungry. The Blazers are averaging 118.4 ppg their last five and 113.3 ppg (47.1%) at home on the season. I think that the Heat, who average only 96.9 ppg (42.8%) on the road, are going to have trouble keeping up. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND 10* MAIN EVENT. The Terps have had a great SU record at home over the years but have struggled at the betting window. Here's a case, however, where a SU win is likely also going to result in an ATS cover. The Terps have won four of five here this season, outscoring opponents by a 72.4 to 60.6 margin here. They're 38-3 on this floor the past 2+ seasons. While they did drop their last game here, it was their fifth game in 10 days and appeared flat, as a result. They've had some more time to recover now and I expect a much better effort. Led by point-guard Jawun Evans, the Cowboys have wins over Georgetown and UConn to their credit, along with a blowout loss vs. UNC, so they're certainly not slouches. That said, this is their first "true road game," and they're just 4-17 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons. This hasn't been a good role for them over the years either, as they're just 8-21-1 ATS the last 30 times that they were listed as road underdogs (or pick) of three or fewer points. Maryland Coach Mark Turgeon described Thursday's practice as: "... among the best of the season." I expect that to carry over into tonight's game, homecourt ultimately proving the difference. Maryland bounces back. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE 10* GOW. The Cowboys upset the Aztecs here on 11/19. Don't expect it to happen again. In terms of line value, note that San Diego State was laying -8.5 points for the 11/19 game. Now, we get to play the Aztecs laying less than a touchdown. Even with the earlier loss, they're still 6-3 ATS (7-2 SU) the last nine times that they were listed as road favorites. Both teams can score points. The Aztecs average 36 points, the Cowboys average 38.2. The Aztecs have a considerable advantage on the other side of the ball though. They allow 20.7 points and 318.9 yards per game. The Cowboys, on the other hand, allow 35.5 point and 474.9 yards per game. Over their last three games, the Cowboys are allowing an average of 52.7 points and 577.3 yards. In conference play, they're allowing 491.2 yards per game and 36.4 ppg. Meanwhile, the Aztecs are allowing a mere 17.4 ppg and 296.9 yards. You get the idea. I'm backing the revenge-minded team with the far superior defense.

I'm playing on BROOKLYN 10* BEST BET. This is the biggest number that the Bucks have been asked to lay this season; I feel it will prove to be too high. The Bucks are off three straight wins, most recently beating these same Nets at Brooklyn on Thursday night. Playing with such recent "revenge" should provide the Nets, 2-0 ATS the last two times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss, with some added motivation. While the Bucks' 3-game winning streak has helped in driving up the line, note that Milwaukee is an ugly 2-11 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after three or more consecutive SU victories. Going back further finds the Bucks at a money-burning 48-88-7 ATS their last 143 in that situation. The Nets played the Bucks tough here earlier in the season, losing by only two. Look for them to give the Bucks all they can handle once again here.

I'm playing on DENVER 10* PERS FAV. This is a very tough scheduling spot for the Rockets. Last night, they left it all on the floor at Golden State, ultimately winning in double-OT. Harden played a whopping 45 mins. Anderson (44) and Ariza (42) were both up there, too. After logging that many minutes, playing in the high altitude of Denver figures to be tougher than normal. In addition to the back-to-back spot, note that the Rockets will also be playing their third game in the past four nights. Meanwhile, the Nuggets had last night off and have played just one game since 11/28. Needless to say, they should have the fresher legs tonight.

The Nuggets have fared well against high-scoring, "defensively-challenged" teams like Houston. They're 6-2 ATS against teams that allow 99+ points per game and 7-3 ATS against teams which score 99+ per game. The Nuggets, 9-5-1 ATS the last 15 times that they were home favorites of three or fewer points, had their way with the Rockets last season, going 3-0 SU/ATS. With the schedule in their favor and knowing that they badly could use a win before hitting the road for six games after this, I expect more of the same tonight.

I'm playing on TEXAS 10* PERS FAV. As some of you will likely recall, I successfully played on the Tide in their last game and they rewarded me with a 76-46 blowout win. As impressive as that victory was, winning at Texas is an entirely different deal from playing at home against Charleston Southern. While they've got some more experience than last season, the Tide have yet to play a "true" road game; I expect that they'll be dealing with some more growing pains away from home this season. They've won just nine of 25 times on the road the past couple of years and are 2-5 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to +6 range, during that time. Off three straight losses, the Longhorns are going to be in a foul mood. They've won 30 of 39 on this floor the past 2+ seasons. During that time, they were 3-1 SU/ATS after failing to cover their previous three games. I expect them to bounce back with a much needed win, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on COLORADO 10* MAIN EVENT. With an 11-1 record and fresh off a 45-17 beatdown of instate rival Washington State in the Apple Cup, the Huskies have had a great year. They're outscoring opponents by a whopping 44.7 to 17.8 margin. That said, I don't feel that they should be laying this many points against a Colorado team which has also enjoyed an excellent season. I successfully backed the Buffaloes in their very first game of the season, a 44-7 blowout of rival Colorado State. At the time, I stated that the offseason offensive changes were likely going to lead to a vastly improved offense. That proved to be accurate as the Buffaloes have averaged 34.7 points, allowing just 18.7 Colorado and Washington both lost to USC, the only "conference loss" for each. (Note that Buffaloes played the Trojans much tougher, as they lost by only four points, at USC. Meawhile, Washington lost by 14, despite playing at home.) Colorado's only other loss came at Michigan and its likely that Washington also would have lost there. So, while Washington does have the better record, those records could well be the same, if both teams had played the same schedule. With the Buffaloes a perfect 4-0 ATS in the underdog role, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI 10* MAIN EVENT. I like the Cyclones and was really impressed with their effort in the recent AdvoCare Invitational tournament, as they played hard the entire way. Some of you will recall that I backed them in the finals of that tournament. Facing a strong Gonzaga team, the Cyclones found themselves trailing by 15 at halftime. However, they didn't quit. I included a quote in my analysis of that ISU/Gonzaga game from an ISU player (Naz Mitrou) stating that "This tournament means everything." The Cyclones played like it. They stormed back and earned the 'cover,' eventually losing 73-71.

While the Cyclones have had a few days off to recover, I still believe thats going to prove to be a difficult loss to immediately bounce back from. When a game "means everything" and you fight so hard, only to come up just short, that takes a toll.

Don't expect the Bearcats to show them any sympathy as they've also been playing great basketball. They've responded to their lone loss - against a good Rhode Island team - with three conesecutive double-digit victories. Full of confidence, they're looking for a "statement win" here. They also haven't forgotten a very close (81-79) loss at the hands of these same Cyclones, at Cincy, last season. While it appears the Bearcats may not have Clark, I believe they've got more than enough to take this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the upset.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* MAIN EVENT. It goes without saying that the Cowboys are having an outstanding season. I believe this will prove to be a week that they stumble though. The Vikings are one of the top defenses in the league and they've been particularly stingy here at home. In five games here, they're 4-1 outscoring teams by a 23.6 to 16.6 margin. Their lone loss here came in OT and they've held visiting teams to a mere 283.4 yards per game here. Note that they're 9-2 ATS the last 11 times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range and that includes a 3-0 ATS mark as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. While Sam Bradford isn't going to be mistaken for Tom Brady anytime soon, I expect him to do whats necessary to give the Vikes a chance to win. He's hopeful to get his favorite target (Diggs) back, as Diggs (questionable) returned to practice on Monday. Note that in his last game against the Cowboys, while playing with the Eagles, Bradford was 25-of-36 (69.4%) while throwing for 295 yards. He had a TD without throwing an interception, giving him a passer rating of 103.4. Bradford started off slowly but led the Eagle offense to four scores in five full possessions in the second half and overtime. Bradford would eventually win the game by connecting with Matthews in OT. That was at Dallas, too. While another outright win won't surprise, I'm expecting AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. While most knew it was going to be a long season, Dallas fans probably didn't expect it to be this bad. Indeed, the Mavs (3-14 SU and 6-11 ATS) are a mess right now, a shell of the team that they once were. Give them credit for fighting hard against San Antonio last night but expect it to catch up with them tonight. This will be the third time that the Mavs will play their second game in two nights. The first two times saw them lose by 29 combined points, while going 0-2 SU/ATS. Don't expect the Hornets to show them any mercy. Charlotte lost last time out. The Hornets were off a game the previous night though and playing their fourth game in five nights. Having won by 19 the previous night, we can forgive the last loss, or at least explain it. While the Mavs, who will be without Nowitzki and Barea, are 1-5 ATS against teams from the East, the Hornets are a solid 4-2 ATS against teams from the West. With the schedule and venue in their favor, look for the Hornets to pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on SETON HALL 10* PERS FAV. After winning three straight to start the season, including a fairly impressive victory at Iowa, the Pirates dropped two of three at the Advocare Invitational, failing to cover in all three games. Losses came against Florida and Stanford. They're back home now though and they've had some time off (last played on Sunday) to recover and prepare to get back to business. Note that they've won their two games on this floor by scores of 91-70 and 82-58. On the other hand, Columbia just lost a tough (88-86) one against Hoffstra on Tuesday and hasn't had much time to recover from it. Note that Columbia lost by 20 at St Joseph's, the only other time it faced a decent team on the road. Yes, its true that the Pirates have failed to cover a few in a row. That shouldnt prevent us from pulling the trigger though. Note that they're 3-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, after failing to cover three straight. The Pirates are 12-3 SU and 10-3 ATS their past 15 in December. Look for them to start the month off in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* GAME OF MONTH. The Anteaters hammered the Broncos last season. Playing at home, I expect the Broncos to return the favor tonight. While the Broncos are a relatively experienced team, the Anteaters lost the majority of the players who were around for last season's 79-61 beatdown. The lone returning starter was Luke Nelson. However, he has yet to play a minute, as coach Russ Turner has been extra cautious with his star.

Turner recently had this to say of Nelson: "It's a tough deal because he’s got a hamstring issue, which is difficult to define. I feel like he is close to playing. But until he is 100 percent, I'm going to be cautious with that, and that's because the conference race and the conference tournament specifically are so much more vital than the games that we're playing now."

In the (unlikely) event that Nelson does return, he can't be expected to be dominate in his first game back - and the return of a team's star, after he's been gone for a long time, often initially causes the other players to "stand around" a little, or at least it takes some time for the lineup to adjust. Note that Nelson led the way for the Anteaters in last year's win over Santa Clara, going 4-of-5 from beyond the arc with 20 overall points and six asssists.

Nelson's absence and the Anteaters' overall inexperience is starting to catch up with them. Losing by six against East Tenn. State last time out wasn't too bad. However, they were hammered by 54-37 by a weak Wisconsin-Milwaukee team before that. (The only other team that Wisc-Milw has beaten thus far is the "Milwaukee School Of Engineering" and every other game has resulted in a double-digit loss.)

The Broncos have also lost two in a row. However, those losses came against Vanderbilt and Arizona (big difference from Wisc-Milwaukee!) and both were by 10 points or less. The Broncos won their last two games on this floor by double-digits. I look for them to rise to the occasion and avenge last year's loss.

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* GOW. I played against the Lakers last night and they got destroyed at New Orleans. Now, they're at (arguably) an even more difficult venue, while playing the second of b2b games. (The Bulls are 4-1 SU/ATS here, outscoring teams by an average of 109 to 98.4.) Note that the Lakers have just five wins the last 37 times that they played the second of b2b games. The last two times that they were in that situation they lost by scores of 149-106 and 125-99.

In addition to playing in a b2b spot, the Lakers will also be playing their third game in the past four days and their sixth game in the past nine days. Thats a pretty gruelling stretch, made worse by the fact that they're missing D'Angelo Russell right now. Also, Nick Young who provides valuable minutes off the bench and was even more important after Russell went down, left last night's game and needed help getting to the locker-room. While his status isn't entirely clear until after today's MRI, it'd surprise me if he played.

Regardless of whether the Lakers have Young for this game or not, the well-rested Bulls are more than capable of delivering a blowout. They already won by eight at LA last week and the previous two meetings both resulted in double-digit wins. Speaking of double-digits wins, this will be just the Bulls' third home game since 11/5. Both previous ones resulted in double-digit wins, the Bulls winning those two games by 43 combined points.

With an O/U line currently sitting at 212, the pace figures to favor the Bulls. They're 13-5 ATS the last 18 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) when doing so at home. With the schedule in their favor, I'm anticipating another beatdown. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS 10* PERS FAV. The Lakers embarrassed the Pelicans here earlier this month. I say New Orleans gets some payback tonight. While the Lakers were healthy, the Pelicans were still without Jrue Holliday for the 11/12 meeting. It also didn't help matters that Davis went down and left the game game at a critical time. (While Davis did return, the Lakers went on a 14-0 run while he was out.) As for Holliday, he's playing now, with some games under his belt, and that makes this N.O. team a lot better.  A couple of recent road losses notwithstanding, the Pelicans are playing well right now, winning four of their last six. Since the loss to LA, they've gone a perfect 4-0 here, beating Boston, Portland, Charlotte and Minnesota. They won those four games by a combined 39 points, nearly 10 points per game. This time, its the Lakers who are dealing with a signficant injury in the backcourt, as D'Angelo Russel has gone down. He was +13 with 22 points, six assists while adding a couple of rebounds and a block in the earlier meeting. Note that Randle who led the Lakers with 11 rebounds and a +17 plus/minus mark in that game is also currently questionable. He was limited to non-contact work during yesterday's practice and will likely be a gametime decision. Either way, with the Lakers are just 4-9 ATS (3-10 SU) their past 13 off a double-digit win and the Pelicans at 20-12 ATS their past 32 off an "upset" loss, I say its payback time. 

I'm playing on UTAH 10* BEST BET. Its true that Butler has played a much tougher schedule, as Utah has been beating up on cupcakes. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs deserve a lot of credit for winning the Continental Las Vegas Invitational. Beating Arizona in the finals was no small feat. However, they may well be in 'letdown mode' here and have had little time to recover. Either way, I expect the Bulldogs, who are still getting used to the six new players in their lineup, to stumble against a hungry, undefeated, and prepared Utes squad. Note that Butler is just 2-4 ATS the last six times it was listed as a road favorite of three or fewer points.

Utah coach Krystkowiak has been preparing for this game, working in concepts into practice to help against Butler (whom Utah coaches saw play last season in Puerto Rico) without specifically telling players. "This is for the Butler game." Krystkowiak commented: "A lot of that is built into our practices without talking about Butler." This is the first of a home-and-home series between these schools; next year they'll square off at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. With the schedule in their favor, look for the Utes to "hold serve" this year. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. Both these clubs have struggled to start the season. While the teams are much different, both bring similar stats to the table. The Wizards are 5-10. The Kings are 6-10. The Wizards score 102.1 points and allow 105.1. The Kings score 102.5 ppg and allow 105.5. While contending in the West is likely (again) going to be difficult for the Kings, the Wizards are fully capable of righting the ship and returning to the playoffs in the East. That said, they need to take care of business at home against teams like the one they'll face tonight.

As you likely recall, Wall and Cousins played together at Kentucky. About six weeks ago now, the two stars squared off against each other at their old stomping grounds, as these teams played an exhibition game against each other at Rupp Arena. Cousins and the Kings finished on top, 124-119. With this evening's "rematch" being played at Washington, I expect Wall and co. to return the favor.

Washington is off a loss last time out. That was against the Spurs though and they were playing the second of b2b games. Prior to that, they'd won back-to-back games and three of four. The Wizards have been a little cautious with limiting the minutes of their starters on both the front and back end of b2b situations. They didn't play last night though and they also get tomorrow off. While Cousins will obviously present a difficult matchup, Wall (and Beal) should enjoy a considerable edge in the backcourt. Note that the Kings are already 0-2 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range.

The home team easily won and covered both meetings last season, the Wizards winning 113-99 in the game here at Washington. Knowing they hit the road for three games after this, including tough games at OKC and SA to start the trip, look for the Wizards to up their game and come away with the win and cover. 

I'm playing on KC 10* GOW. The road team won both meetings in this series last season. The Broncos won 31-24 at KC in September. Then, playing at Denver, the Chiefs returned the favor. Listed as +3.5 point underdogs, the Chiefs won by a score of 29-13. It was never close, as KC led 19-0 at halftime. While it was more the defense that won it, that was still a big win for Alex Smith as he'd previously had trouble beating Manning. Now 2-0 ATS their last two visits here. Smith and the Chiefs should feel right at home. The stats from both teams are very similar. The Broncos average 23.9 ppg, while KC averages 22.2. Both teams allow just under 19 ppg. KC allows 18.7, Denver allows 18.9. Even with a loss last week, the Chiefs are still 5-1 their last six games. That lone loss came by two points. While the Chiefs have allowed 19 or fewer points in four straight games the Broncos have allowed 19 or more in three straight, including 30 and 23 their last two. I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* BEST BET. While the Pacers will be without Paul George, I believe that they're offering excellent value here. Obviously, George is a great player and he makes the Pacers a much better team. That said, they've been pretty inconsistent and have under-achieved to start the season. In that type of situation, learning how to play and win without its star can often help a team. While the competition (Nets) was admittedly on the weak side, the Pacers played great without George last time out, earning a 21-point win over Brooklyn, a win which should provide them with plenty of confidence. Coach Nate McMillan said this after that win: "Tonight is what I feel we can become. I told the guys we can't go back. We can't keep going back and forth. We've got to build off of this and establish our identity." The Clippers proved beatable last time out, stumbling at Detroit. Knowing that this is their last home game for awhile and that they'll face these same Clippers again on their upcoming road trip, I expect the Pacers' best effort and for that to result in AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA 10* BEST BET. While I won with the Raiders last week, this is a tough spot for them. First of all, even though I had them, I don't mind saying that the were Raiders were a little fortunate to leave Mexico with a win and cover, as they didn't play particularly well for most of the game. Regardless, they're now playing on a short week after just having played outside the country, in a very difficult/challenging environment. They'll be facing a Carolina team which is desperate, talented and playing with extra rest, having played last Thursday. As of this writing, most shops have an O/U line of 49.5. With the Raiders just 1-10 ATS the last 11 times they played a home game with an O/U line of 49.5 or higher, I'm taking the points with Carolina.

I'm playing on LA 8*. While they still came up short, I like the way that the Rams played with Goff under center. While the offense admittedly still struggled, I liked what I saw from Goff. He wasn't asked to do too much - but he executed and did what was asked of him. Goff was playing with a wet ball but didn't turn the ball over, never lost his composure, and gave the Rams a chance to win. Fisher said afterwards: "I'm really proud of him." As for Goff, I agree when he said: "Game experience is priceless." While its only one game, I expect Goff to have benefitted from the experience of being involved in a close game. Weather won't be a factor this time and he'll be playing at a venue where visiting teams have averaged 32.6 points and 406 yards per game. The Rams, who have seen five straight games decided by seven or fewer points, are 2-0-2 ATS against other teams with a losing record, going 8-3-3 ATS their last 14. With the Saints, who have seen six of seven decided by six or less, just 7-17-1 ATS the last 25 times that they were favored, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on HAWAII 10* GOW. I believe that the Minutemen have packed in their season and that they'll be more interested in "enjoying the island life" than putting in the work necessary to snap their losing skid. UMass is off a 51-9 beating at Provo, the second straight time it gave up more than 50, and hasn't beaten an FBS opponent since hosting Florida International in Week 3 and hasn't beaten anyone on the road all season. Defense has been an ongoing issue, as the Minutemen give up more than 34 points and more than 450 yards per game. While the Minutemen are limping towards the finish, the Warriors snapped their own losing skid last time out. A victory will give them six wins and they should be highly motivated to play well. The Minutemen haven't played at home since late October. Look for the travel and losing to catch up to them here, the Warriors happy to take advantage and kick them while they're down. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. Playing at MSG, the Knicks beat the Hornets in OT yesterday. With tonight's rematch being played at Charlotte, I expect the revenge-minded Hornets to return the favor. In three b2b situations this season, the Knicks have allowed 118, 118 and 119 points. Not surprisingly, they were 0-3 SU/ATS in those games. All three losses came by a minimum of seven points, two of them by double-digits. They're now just 11-30 SU the past 2+ seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. This season, the Knicks are only 1-5 on the road, allowing an ugly 112.5 ppg. The Hornets, 7-4 ATS when laying points this season, are 48-38-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when playing with 'revenge.' I expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on UCONN 10* GOY. If I had a phone, it would have been ringing off the hook after I released this play. People would be asking me a variation of: "How can you release your 'Game Of The Year' on a team which is playing out the string and which is off back-to-back shutout losses?" While its true that the Huskies are off b2b shutout losses, there are a number of reasons why I really like them on Saturday afternoon. 

The Huskies are playing a Tulane team which is also off a shutout loss and which is also playing its final game of the season. While the Huskies have lost five straight, Tulane's skid is even longer. The Green Wave, who have won just three of their past 17 road games, have dropped six in a row overall. 

I'd argue that the Huskies have more talent but thats certainly debatable. Both defenses have been "respectable" while both offenses have been terrible. The Huskies' stats at home are arguably a little better though. While the Huskies have been outscored by an average of 19.3 to 16.2 in going 3-3 at home this season, the Green Wave have been outscored by an average margin of 29.6 to 17, in going 1-4 on the road. 

Its been a long season for both teams. That said, I like the fact that the Huskies have played one less game in November. They'll be playing their third game this month while the Green Wave will be playing their fourth. 

While I've mentioned the stats, in this "type of game," I believe that finding "the more motivated team" is often the single most important factor in determining which team ends up on top. I expect that to be case here and I fully expect it to be the Huskies which are more motivated than their guests. 

Last week was "Senior Day" for Tulane. It was unfortunate for the Green Wave that they had to face Temple, as the Owls are really rolling right now. Either way, Tulane got smoked. The Green Wave hung around for awhile but the Owls ultimately pulled away for a 31-0 blowout; a tough way to say goodbye to 12 seniors. As Tulane head coach Willie Fritz noted: "Congratulations to Temple, they whipped us." Off that blowout loss in the final home game, I believe its going to be difficult for Tulane to "get up" for its final road game.

On the other hand, the Huskies should have no trouble "getting up" for this one. UConn coach Bob Diaco says "he's the guy" for this job and seemingly has the support of both his players and the athletic director. The team had made big steps under him prior to taking a step back this season. He's determined to close the season on a high note and I expect him to have his players feeling the same way. 

Diaco had this to say: "I know exactly what needs to be fixed and I'm going to fix it ... Nothing seems like it is going well on the outside looking in, as a perception standpoint. But I'm here to tell you that's not true."

With no pointspread to worry about, I'm backing what I believe will be the hungrier team. Look for UConn, which Diaco once said "was built to play close games" and which won 8-3 at Tulane last season, to "dig deep" and finish on top. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* GOW. By coincidence, last "Black Friday," I also released my NBA "Game Of The Week." It also involved the Clippers. Only last year, I was playing on the Clippers (they won 111-90, capping a 7-0 day) and this year I'm playing against them. Last season, the Clippers were playing at home and facing a New Orleans team which was playing without Anthony Davis. Yet, they were still only laying -6 or -6.5 points. This year, they're on the road against (arguably) a tougher opponent, yet they're laying a similar number. I believe thats providing excellent value with the capable home underdog. I backed the Pistons in their last game and they rewarded me with a 23-point beating of Miami. That blowout win should provide some confidence here. Knowing that the Clippers already hammered them at LA - and also knowing that they take to the road after this - should provide the Pistons with some added motivation. They're now 6-2 SU/ATS at home, outscoring teams by a dominating 101.2 to 88.1 margin here. With the Clippers an ugly 9-22 ATS the last 31 times (3-10 ATS L13) that they were listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on IOWA 10* PERS FAV. While I respect the Huskers, I look for homefield to prove the difference on Friday afternoon. After stumbling in back-to-back games, the Hawkeyes have responded in impressive fashion. After beating Michigan, as huge underdogs, two weeks ago, they delivered a 28-0 shutout win at Illinois. Dominant defense and a dynamic duo of running backs, each with more than 850 rushing yards, running behind a very good offensive line. That's a tough combination to beat. Look for the Huskers, who are getting outscored by an average of 30.0 to 17.7 on the road, to find that out. 

I'm playing on TCU 10* BEST. Both these teams lost a game they wanted and needed to win last week. While neither team was impressive, in my opinion, TCU's loss will be easier to bounce back from. The Frogs were hosting a red hot Oklahoma State team. Though they were favored, losing to the Cowboys wasn't exactly "shameful." However, getting blown out 31-6, the most lopsided home loss in 16 years under Patterson, was. Off that type of beatdown, I believe that Patterson will have be able to get his message through, prior to this important game. The Longhorns are off a much different type of loss and I believe that it will be tougher to recover from. Favored my more than 3 TDs against lowly Kansas, the Longhorns lost outright, in OT. Off that loss and now 16-20 here at Texas, its safe to say that Charlie Strong is on the hot-seat. In fact, even a win here may not save his job. (Earlier in the week, the Austin American-Statesman reported that Strong's firing was inevitable, saying of Strong: "He knows what is coming.") Don't expect Patterson's Frogs, 6-2 the last eight times that they were getting points, to have any sympathy. They pounded Texas by a combined 98-17 score the past two seasons. This one figures to be closer, but I look for TCU to finish on top once again. 

I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* BEST BET. These teams met last Thanksgiving Day, Arizona closing as a 24-point favorite. Santa Clara very nearly scored the upset though, the Cats ultimately winning 75-73. As per usual, the Wildcats are tough. However, I believe the Broncos are capable of providing another "Thanksgiving scare." The Broncos enter today's game with a modest 3-2 SU and 1-3 ATS record. That shouldn't scare us off them though, considering that they were 0-5 SU/ATS when they entered last season's near upset. As of this writing, the O/U line is 139.5 across the board. Thats a little higher than last seasons but still in the same "range." Note that the Broncos are 5-1 ATS their last six neutral court games where the O/U line ranged from 135 to 139.5 while the Wildcats are 1-5 ATS the last six times that they played a neutral court game with a total in that range. While they're 2-2 ATS thus far this season, November hasn't been kind to the Cats' bettors in recent years; they're just 6-11 ATS in November the past 2+ seasons. The Broncos have thrived in neutral court settings and are 2-0 ATS the past couple of seasons as neutral court underdogs in the +12.5 to +18 range. Last season's game is going to give them some confidence coming in; I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS 10* BEST BET. Obviously, the Colts would prefer to have Luck under center. However, I believe that they're also capable of winning with Tolzien. Chuck Pagano had this to say of Tolzien: "Scott’s got a ton of ability. I have all the confidence in the world in this guy. This organization does." Dwayne Allen added: "There's a reason why he's our backup. The coaching staff, the GM and everyone in this locker room believes he has what it takes if the starter isn’t available to go out there and help us win games." Remember, the Colts let go a capable backup in Matt Hasselbeck, who had posted a 5-3 record as a starter last year, signing Tolzien instead. We've seen plenty of teams win without their star QB's - the Pats without Brady, the Steelers have been doing it off and on for years when Big Ben goes down - and we saw the Cots win without Luck last year. It can be done. Tolzien's got a veteran back at his disposal along with capable options at receiver and tight-end. He'll face a Steeler defense which has proven vulnerable at times and a Steeler team which is just 2-3 on the road overall. Both teams are off a divsion win. That should favor the Colts, as should the short week. The Steelers 1-5-3 their last nine off a division win. Meanwhile, the Colts are 7-3 ATS their last 10 off a divsion win along with 9-1 their last 10 in November. Take the points but don't be surprised when Tolzien and the Colts step up and score the outright win. 

I'm playing on A@M 10* ROAST. Both teams were hoping to be in a better spot than they are. Each have lost two of their last three to fall out of the rankings though. With both teams playing on a short week, I like the fact that the Aggies are playing at home and they've already had a chance to 'bounce back' with a win (they beat UTSA last game) though, while the Tigers are still licking their wounds off the Florida loss. While the Tigers are still going to have some success on the ground, the expected absence of Fournette is a blow. Texas A@M defensive end Myles Garrett, who had 4.5 sacks last week, should have the Aggie defense fired up. Last year, at LSU, the Tigers were laying -6.5. The previous season, here at College Station, the Tigers were laying -3. (They won by six.) We're getting a considerably more generous line to work with here and I believe thats providing excellent value. While the Aggies have indeed struggled as favorites, they're 1-1 ATS when getting points, beating Auburn outright and failing to cover vs. Alabama by a point. Meanwhile, the Tigers are only 3-7 ATS their last 10 on the road. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Lions upset the Vikings at Minnesota a few weeks ago. I expect the Vikes to return the favor Thursday afternoon. The Vikes got back on track last time out, beating a talented Arizona team. While that was at home, its worth noting that the Vikes are a profitable 14-7 ATS their last 21 road games, including 12-1 ATS their last 13 road games when the O/U line ranged from 42.5 to 45. Including the win at Minnesota, the Lions have won b2b games. They're only 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were off consecutive victories though. While the Lions may possess a slight edge on the offensive side of the ball, the Vikes should have a solid edge on the defensive side of the ball. They allow 17.6 ppg and 306.9 ypg. The Lions allow 358.6 ypg and 22.5 ppg. With the Vikes at 7-2 ATS the last nines that they attemped to avenge an earlier loss, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on PURDUE 10* GOW. The Boilermakers received a wake-up call in their last game and I expect it to work in their favor here. Favored by 18.5 points, the Boilermakers found themselves trailing lowly Georgia State by double-digits (56-44) with only 7:08 to play. While Georgia State deserves some credit, Purdue was clearly in 'letdown mode' from having just suffered an emotional 79-76 loss against Villanova in its previous game. The Boilermakers didn't quit though. Rather, they put together an awesome 20-0 run to end and win the game. I expect them to carry that positive momentum into this evening's "Cancun Challenge" contest. While the Aggies are worthy of respect, we shouldn't make too much out of their undefeated record. Their toughest opponent was UC Irvine, which played without its best player. Through four games, the Aggies are allowing just 61 ppg. That shouldn't phase Purdue though. The Boilermakers are 18-7 ATS their last 25 against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. During that stretch, Purdue is also 16-7 ATS after allowing 60 or fewer points and 9-3 ATS in all tournament games, 1-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite in the -9.5 to -12 range. I believe that we'll see the Purdue team that played so well against Villanova (and the one that closed out last game on a 20-0 run) not the one that struggled through the first part of last game. That'll be enough to lead to a double-digit win against an Aggie team which has yet to face this level of opposition.

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. Davis is obviously a dominant force. However, the Hawks still have the more complete team. While they lost at MSG last time out, the Hawks are a dominant 6-1 SU/ATS here at Atlanta. They're outscoring teams by "double-digits" here, an average score of 112.4 to 102.4. The Pelicans are off b2b solid wins. However, those both came at New Orleans.They're only 1-5 ATS on the road, getting outscored by an average of 100 to 92.7. Off their "upset" of Charlotte, note that the Pelicans are a dismal 12-26-1 ATS (12-27 SU) the last 39 times that they won outright as an underdog, in their previous game. They lost by seven against Orlando and by 27 against the Lakers so far in that situation this season. The Hawks, on the other hand, are 24-16-1 ATS (27-14 SU) off a SU loss in a game where they were favored. Knowing they hit the road for five games after this, look for the Hawks to bounce back and take care of business at home tonight.

I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* MNF MAIN EVENT. The Raiders are for real. This is their chance to prove that to the world (and a pro-Raider Mexico city crowd) and I expect them to do exactly that. The Raider offense is proving multi-dimensional and that it can beat teams in a variety of ways. Two weeks ago, they dominated the Broncos on the ground. The previous week, Carr threw for more than 500 yards. While the Raiders average 28.6 ppg and 417 ypg on the road, Houston averages just 11.5 ppg and 260.5 ypg on the road. I don't believe that the Texans, who are also soft (ranked #26) against the run, will be able to keep up. With this game being played on foreign soil, I like the fact that the Raiders have had an extra week to prepare. Note that they're 2-0 ATS their last two off a bye. The Texans, who threw for only 92 yards in last week's win at Jacksonville, are 0-2 SU/ATS off a division win this season, losing 31-13 and 27-9. More of the same Monday night. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* ANNIHILATOR. Its been a bad start to the road trip for the Blazers and with more difficult games to follow, they know that they need to take care of business this afternoon. I expect them to do just that. The Nets are coming off a difficult road trip of their own. While they've admittedly been much better at home, playing the first game back from a long trip can often be challenging. The Blazers are 8-5 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, one of their better roles away from Portland. They were laying -4 points here last season and won by 12. I'm expecting them to bounce back with a similar effort this afternoon. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GAME OF WEEK. These teams faced each other on a Thursday night, at Arizona, a little less than a year ago. The Cardinals were favored by 10 points. However, the Vikings gave them all they could handle, losing by only three. That was an Arizona team which had been dominating opponents; the Cards came in at 10-2 and off a 27-3 victory the previous week. The Vikings, on the other hand, were off a 38-7 loss, their second loss of 17 or more points, in their previous three games and missing four defensive starters. This year's game sets up much differently. Perhaps most importantly, the game is at Minnesota. The Vikings are 3-1 here, outscoring teams by a 22 to 14.7 margin. Meanwhile, the Cards are 1-2 on the road, getting outscored by a 28 to 23.7 margin. The Cards aren't coming in on a high like last year either. They barely survived against SF last week and their previous two games resulted in a 10-point loss and a 6-6 tie. While the Vikings are again struggling overall, I already mentioned that they're still tough to beat here at home. They're also in the middle of a battle for the division title, as the NFC North remains up for grabs. Last year's game came down to the final play. The Cards went up by a field goal with less than two mins left. With only five seconds left, well within FG range, the Cards forced a fumble to seal the win. As they did last season, look for the Vikings to rise to the occasion. Look for them to finish on top this time, improving to 7-2 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. 

I'm playing on PACIFIC 10* BEST BET. Some of you may recall that I successfully backed the Anteaters a couple of games ago. Listed as small favorites, they rewarded me with a solid 73-58 victory. The Anteaters followed that up with another well-played game, as they took Cal to OT. True, they caught the Bears without a few regulars. Stil, they were huge (+16) underdogs and to get to OT was impressive. That said, I expect that game to catch up to them here. The Anteaters had a chance to win that one in regulation and couldn't capitalize. The thought of 'what could have been' figures to linger in the lockerroom. The continued absence of star Luke Evans (hamstring) doesn't help matters either. They keep listing him as questionable but he has yet to play. In the unlikely event he did play tonight, off an extended absence, he can't be expected to perform miracles in his first game back. The Tigers have had a couple of extra day's rest and come in off a momentum-building 18-point win, the first victory of the "Stoudamire era." Note that last season's meeting was decided by three points and that the Tigers are 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight.

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* BEST BET. Last night's game at Boston didn't end up proving to be too taxing for the Warriors. However, they still had to play. They'll be playing their third road game in the past four days here, the first of those (at Toronto) a considerably tougher game than last night's. They'll be taking on a rested Milwaukee team which upset them here last season - you remember that game - and which comes in believing that it can do the same thing this season. (The Bucks also covered at GS last season, too.) The O/U line for last year's game here was 'only' 205. At 220, or higher, tonight's is considerably higher. That should suit the Bucks just fine. They're 7-2-1 ATS (8-2 SU) the last 10 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Look for them to rise to the occasion once again, earning at least another cover. 

I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE 10* BLOWOUT GOW. If the Mountaineers are bring the right mindset, which I believe they will, this one has the potential to get ugly. Don't get too excited about the Warhawks' 2-game "winning streak." Those wins came against a pair of teams which are a combined 2-10 in conference play. The Mountaineers are strong on both sides of the ball, much stronger than the Warhawks. While the Warhawks may have played better this month, their defense is still allowing 45.5 ppg on the road, to go along with an ugly 544 yards allowed per game. Combine that with the fact that the offense averages only 18.2 ppg on the road and you can see why UL Monroe has been on the wrong side of a few blowouts. The last two times that the Warhawks played on the road, after also playing on the road the previous week, they lost by a combined score of 109-17. Speaking of blowouts, last year's game saw the the Mountaineers win by a score of 59-14. So, the question becomes less a matter of "are the Mountaineers capable of winning big against this team (we know they are) and more a matter of "how will they respond" to a tough loss against Troy. While that was indeed a tough loss to swallow, I expect the Mountaineers to be determined to bounce back by taking out their frustrations on someone. This is their regular season home finale and I look for them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

I'm playing on TCU 10* BC. While the Cowboys are on an impressive roll, I expect it to come to an end Saturday afternoon. The Frogs got back on track in a big way in their last game, a 62-22 (confidence-building) dismantling of Baylor. They ran for 431 yards and threw for another 257. They've since had a bye. While they stumbled earlier at WVU, off a bye, they're still an impressive 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven, off a bye. Speaking of "6-1," its also worth mentioning that TCU is 6-1 SU/ATS its last seven at home, when the O/U line was listed at 70 or greater. While the Frogs were resting and preparing, the Cowboys are off a hard-fought 45-44 win over Texas Tech. With that non-cover, they're now 3-6 ATS their last nine in November. It should also be mentioned that they've got a game against hated Oklahoma on deck. The home team has won big each of the past two seasons. Look for another win and cover for the home team here, the Frogs improving to 13-5 their last 18, off a conference win. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI 10* BEST BET. There's a big rivalry between these schools and games are often close. Last year's game was decided by seven points and I won't be surprised if this one also gets decided by a TD or less. While the Bearcats have admittedly had a tough season, they're still fighting hard. This is a chance to beat a rival and to win their final home game, while also giving them five wins heading into the finale at Tulsa. To say that they'll be highly motivated is likely an understatement. While the Bearcats have struggled, Memphis hasn't exactly been dominant either. In fact, they're just 1-6 ATS their last seven games. While we have to go back a number of years, the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 7.5 to 10 range. In a game that could well come down to the wire, I expect them to improve on those stats with at least another cover tonight. 

I'm playing on Texas A@M 10* PERS FAV. Both teams are 2-0, each beating up on some weaker opposition. With this game being played at College Station, the first time that the Trojans have played here since 1936, I expect the Aggies to have the advantage. USC is playing its first true road game here and road wins have been pretty tough to come by in recent seasons. The Trojans were 3-7 on the road last season (5-16 L2 years) and they're an ugly 20-71 on the road the last eight seasons. Meanwhile, the Aggies are now 33-5 on this floor the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 2-1 ATS mark as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. Going back further finds them at 19-7-1 ATS their last 27 in that role. Its also worth noting that the Aggies are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS the last nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. The Trojans are still pretty young. Look for this trip to prove to be a rude awakening. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA 10* GOM. Both teams are off very tough losses last week. One could argue that the Panthers' loss was more "devasating" due to the fact that they're so far behind in the division standings. The Saints' loss was arguably "tougher to take" though. With both teams off those type of losses and both playing on a short week, I believe that playing at home will prove to be a signifcant advantage. All that aside, this is absolutely a "must win" game for the Panthers. Lets not forget that this is the same team that dominated all season last year. They're still very capable. Carolina is still outgaining teams by a commanding 387.8 to 284.8 margin on this field. I expect Newton and co. to have a big day against a Saints defense which is allowing (slightly) more than 400 yards per game. Excluding a few pushes, the Panthers are a profitable 61-39 ATS the last 100 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss, 7-3 ATS their last 10 in that situation. Don't count them out quite yet.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* PERS FAV. The 76ers took advantage of a short-handed Wizards team last night, earning a rare win. Don't expect a repeat performance. Off their recent win over Indiana, the 76ers also were forced to play the next day. The result? A 21-point loss. (They also lost by 16 the only other previous time that they played the second of b2b games this season.) Now, in addition to the b2b situation, the 76ers will be forced to play their fifth game in the past seven nights. I expect it to catch up with them. The Wolves couldnt quite get past Charlotte last time out. However, a 26-point win over the Lakers, in their previous game, shows that they're capable of "winning big." With the schedule and venue in their favor, I expect them to do just that, moving to 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were listed as home favorites in the 9.5 to 12 range. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE 10* TV MAIN EVENT. As you likely know, Providence lost Chris Dunn to the NBA. A 2-time Big East Player Of The Year, he was selected fifth overall by the T-Wolves. The Friars lost Ben Bentil to the NBA, selected 51st overall by the Celtics. Those are big shoes to fill. As some of you also know, I successfully backed the Friars in their first game. I noted that I thought they still had some decent talent and depth, that they were tough to beat at home and that they were going to be highly motivated to show they could win without Dunn. That was a home game against Vermont though. Now, they're on the road against Ohio State. With a victory under their belt, the desire to prove that they can win without Dunn may not be as strong. The Buckeyes have yet to cover but are already 2-0 on the season. They'll be relishing the chance for a big win over a team from the Big East. The Buckeyes dropped some early non-conf. games last season and have learned their lesson from it. Matta called them out for being flat in their opener. I expect them to respond with a far more focused effort here, en route to a win and cover. 

'm playing on UNLV 10* PERS FAV. The Highlanders have some quality players, as Johnson and Thames are both capable scorers. However, I believe they're coming to the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Rebels are going to be in a fould mood, after getting upset by South Alabama. Its true that UNLV has slipped since its "the glory days." Its also true that this is a fairly young team, one which is dealing with some early injury adversity. They're a young team with talent though, one which will be determined to get Menzies his first win as coach of UNLV. The defensive effort was their in the first game, but they were lacking in offensive execution. I expect that game to serve as a good learning tool. They're also likely not going to need as many to win against the Highlanders. UC Riverside scored only 55 points in its loss at Portland. UNLV won by 11 at UC Riverside last season, covering as 6-poiint favorites. Including that result, the Highlanders are a dismal 2-10 ATS (0-12 SU) their last 12 against teams from the Mountain West. Rebels roll.

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* BEST BET. Admittedly, the Cavs are playing well these days. I look for them to stumble tonight though. The Pacers got back on track in a big way last time out. I expect them to carry them momentum into tonight's big game against the Cavs. While its been a slow start, I still believe that this is a very capable Indiana team, one of the few teams capable of beating the Cavs. Tonight, they're catching Cleveland off a hard-fought game vs. Toronto last night, the team that took them to the brink in last year's Eastern Conference Finals and playing their third game in the past four days. The Pacers believe so, too. The purpose of their offseason moves was to give them a team that could compete with Cleveland in the playoffs. Note that the Cavs are an ugly 7-16-1 ATS the last 24 times that they were road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. During that stretch, the Pacers were 5-3 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. They're also 4-0 ATS the last four times that they hosted the Cavs. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* MAIN EVENT. While they've failed to cover recently, the Blazers have still won five of their last six. This should be a good spot to break through with a win AND cover. The Bulls have played well at home. However, they're only 2-3 on the road and have yet to win at a venue as difficult as this one. Chicago's two road wins came at Brooklyn and Miami, against a pair of sub-500 teams. When they stepped up in class to play stronger teams on the road (Atlanta, Indiana, Boston) the Bulls lost all three times. Each loss came by a minimum of seven points and by an average of 11. While I respect the Bulls, I expect homecourt to ultimately prove the difference, the Blazers covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on UC Irvine 10* PERS FAV. Both teams got hammered in their opener. Both will be hungry to bounce back. One could make a case that the Jackrabbits were 'better' in their blowout loss, as it came against a much stronger opponent. They lost at Cal while the Anteaters were beaten by Utah State. I believe that b2b home games are going to serve the Anteaters better than b2b road games will treat the Jackrabbits though. While South Dakota State is below .500 on the road, the Anteaters, 4-1 ATS their last five off a double-digit loss, are 21-6 at home the past 2+ seasons. The Anteaters played without their star Luke Nelson in the opening loss. They're hoping to have him back for tonight's game. Either way, I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* PERS FAV. The Pacers figure to be in a foul mood here. After getting upset by the 76ers in OT, they lost to Boston last time out. They've had a day off to recover and stew in their anger though and I expect them to come out swinging tonight. They catch the Magic off a hard fought upset win at OKC yesterday and playing their third game in the past four days. While they've had trouble on the road, prior to the Boston loss, the Pacers had yet to taste defeat at home. They're still 4-1 here, averaging greater than 115 ppg on this floor. Averaging only 93.6 ppg their past five outings, the Magic figure to have trouble keeping up. The Pacers are 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven in this series. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion tonight. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* MAIN EVENT. These teams played an extremely close game against each other in the Super Bowl. I won't be surprised if this one also "comes down to the wire." That makes getting this large number of points very enticing. Wilson is getting healthier and its showing. He (and Graham) had his best game of the season last time out. While they've lost a couple of games, the Hawks have yet to lose one by more than six points. Of course, it helps matters when your defense allows just 14.3 ppg on the road. Look for them to give the Pats all they can handle here, earning AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. This was already going to be a tough matchup for Yale. While you may recall that the Bulldogs made it to the NCAA Tournament season, the first time they'd been there since 1962. This year's team lost all but one starter from that team though. Fortunately, for Yale fans, their lone returning starter is Makai Mason. If you remember Yale playing in the tournament, you'll remember Mason. He was the guy that scored 31 points in the first round upset of Baylor. Unfortunately, at least for Yale fans, Mason broke his foot in a recent scrimmage and won't be available for here. For a team that was relying on him more than ever, thats a devasating blow. While the Huskies also lost some key players from last year's team, the cupboard isn't as bare. They've still got a couple of starters from last year along with guard Markelle Fultz, considered to be one of the top freshmen in the country. Look for the Huskies to take advantage of their "Mason-less" guests, starting the Fultz era off with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* PERS FAV. Both teams played yesterday. The Lakers beat the Pelicans while the T-Wolves lost against the Clippers. The fact that the T-Wolves didn't have to travel in between games should work in their favor, in this b2b spot. Also, with the T-Wolves having lost last night, they should be a little hungrier than their guests. A closer look at the scheduling for both teams shows that the Wolves had two day's off, prior to last night's loss. On the other hand, the Lakers had only one day off, prior to last night's win. That means that LA will be playing its third game in four nights here while that will not be the case for the T-Wolves. The Wolves played arguably their best game of the season, the only previous time that they played the second of b2b games, a 123-107 destruction of Orlando. Look for them to have the fresher legs tonight, as they bounce back with another win and cover.

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH 10* NON-CONF GOM. Admittedly, the Cowboys are having a great season. Since a narrow 1-point loss in their opener, all they've done is reel off seven straight wins, covering the number in all seven of those. This is the first time, however, that they'll be playing the second of b2b road games. They'll be taking on a dangerous Pittsburgh team with a coach and QB who know how to win, a team with an elite back and wide receiver. As the games get bigger, this Pittsburgh team tends to step up its leve of play, particularly against other quality opponents. In fact, over the past two seasons, the Steelers were 6-1-3 ATS (8-2 SU)in 10  games against winning teams, in the "second half" of the season. Keep in mind that the Steelers are still 3-1 SU/ATS at home, going 12-7-2 ATS (15-6 SU) here the past 2+ seasons. That includes a 6-1 SU/ATS mark as home favorites of three or fewer points. I expect them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats Sunday afternoon.

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE 10* AFC PERS FAV. The Texans have been better than the Jags so far this season overall. However, I believe that the Jags are favored for good reason. With last week's cover, the Jags are now 2-0-1 ATS off of two or more consecutive SU losses. I backed the Jags the only previous time that they were off three straight losses, as they are here, and the Jags rewarded me by beating the Colts. This hasn't been a good role for the Texans; they're just 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. Of course, they're 0-3 SU/ATS on the road overall this season, too. They've been outscored by an average of 28.3 to 7.3 in those games. Jacksonville's Mercedes Lewis commented: "If we're going to get this turned around, it needs to start now. We're capable of getting on a roll, but the only way to do that is to get that first one and go from there." Look for the Jags to get that first home win, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on NEBRASKA 10* GOW. As some of you will recall, I successfully played against the Huskers last week. Off their first loss, a hard-fought setback vs. Wisconsin, and playing the second of b2b difficult road games, I thought the Huskers would be "ripe for a letdown." Sure enough, they lost 62-3. That blowout loss will keep some people off Nebraska this week. That, in turn, has helped to keep this line lower than it would have been otherwise. I expect them to bounce right back with a huge effort though and believe that Minnesota is the the perfect opponent to do so against. The Gophers may have won four straight. However, none of those opponents (or venues) were as dangerous as this one. While the Gophers are 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they were off two or more consecutive wins, the Huskers are 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were off two or more consecutive losses. Regardless of who is behind center, the Huskers have a very talented offense and should have no trouble moving the ball. I don't believe that the one-dimensional Gophers will be able to keep up. Nebraska won big last year and I expect another double-digit win this evening.

'm playing on ARKANSAS 10* BEST BET. I backed the Razorbacks last week and they rewarded me with a win over Florida. I believe they're offering excellent value once again here. LSU is off a tough loss against archrival Alabama. That loss killed the Tigers' dreams of running the table under interim coach Ed Orgeron. Thats a tough pill to swallow and I believe it'll leave them a little deflated here. After getting destroyed by Auburn, the Razorbacks benefitted from a bye. Coach Bielema made the most of it, making some changes on defense. While its never wise to read too much into a single performance, the changes worked remarkably well; the Razorbacks were dominant defensively against the Gators, allowing a mere 12 yards on the ground. While the Tigers obviously have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, they really struggled on offense last week, the same problem that led to Myles' release. The Razorbacks beat LSU by a 17-0 score the last meeting here, almost exactly two years ago. They also upset them at LSU, almost exactly one year ago. Including that result, they're 12-6 ATS the last 18 times that they were getting points. I expect at least another cover here. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* SPECIAL. As evidenced by their lofty rankings, both these teams are going to be good this year. However, the Jayhawks have the higher ranking for a reason and they should have the advantage out of the gate. The Jayhawks, who added the nation's top recruit in Josh Jackson, will be looking to tie tie UCLA's all-time Division I record of 13 consecutive conference championships this season and there's little reason to doubt that they'll do it. Bill Self had this to say of this year's team: "I love our experience. I love our depth. And I think our young kids could be our most talented. There's no reason not to be optimistic." All Big-Ten point guard Yogi Ferrell has moved on for the Hoosiers. That's significant as he'd been running the offense for a long time. While the Hoosiers had a strong season last year, it started off with a 1-2 record in Maui. They're on a different island (Oahu) this time but I expect them to again get off to a tough start. Look for this loaded Jayhawks team to get off to a winning start, picking up the cover along the way.