Sports Picks & Predictions

Reason: I'm playing on the NEW YORK KNICKS. The Nuggets come in with the better record They're also off a win (didn't cover) last night while the Knicks are off a loss. The Knicks are still arguably the more talented team though and I expect them to be highly motivated for this one. As you surely know, the Nuggets are Carmelo Anthony's former team. Naturally, they'd like to beat Anthony. However, the feeling goes both ways and I expect Anthony and co. to also really want this one. In addition to having homecourt advantage, I feel the Knicks have the schedule in their favor. Both teams played last night. However, the Knicks played right here in NY while the Nuggets were at Washington. Granted, that's not too far away. However, it does still involve some travel. Perhaps more importantly, the Nuggets will also be playing their fourth game in the last five nights (one was an OT game, too) here. Thats NOT the case for the Knicks. (While both teams played on the 18th and 20th, the Nuggets also played on the 17th, while NY had that day off.) The Nuggets are a money-burning 4-12 ATS the last 16 times that they were listed as road favorites of -3 or fewer points. During that stretch, they've also gone just 8-15-2 ATS (5-20 SU!) when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. On the other hand, during the same stretch, the Knicks were 16-9 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in that range. Both last season's meetings were close (2 and 4 point games) and the home team won each time. I'll grab the points with the home underdog but expect an outright win. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DETROIT. After the Raiders had won 10 straight in this series, the Titans beat them twice last season. I expect them to make it three in a row this afternoon. The Titans were expected to be on the top teams in the league this season. However, they haven't lived up to those expectations, at least not yet. Missing 6-10 senior Eli Holman for 10 games didn't help matters. He's back now though, giving the Titans three preseason all-league first teamers. Not surprisingly, after a slow start, the Titans have started to turn things around. They did lose at Wisconsin Green Bay last time out. The Panthers are tough (9-1) at home though. The Titans did win their previous game, which was also on the road. Their most recent home game saw the Titans beat Butler by double-digits. The Raiders are not healthy right now. Indeed, they're expected to be without BOTH Vance Hall and Julius Mays. Note that Mays is the team's leading scorer, averaging 13.4 ppg. Given that the Raiders already rank a dismal 322nd (out of 338 Division I teams) in scoring offense, obviously they can't afford to lose any scoring. On the road, they're managing a mere 52.9 points per game. (Detroit averages 79.3 ppg at home.) The Raiders are 1-2 ATS (0-3 SU) the last three times that they were road underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range. During that time, the Titans were 3-1-1 ATS (5-0 SU) as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Detroit, 3-1 SU/ATS when off a conference loss, won last season's two meetings by 9 and 10 points. I expect an even more convincing victory this afternoon. *10

Reason: I'm playing on YOUNGSTOWN STATE. I played against these same Penguins exactly one week ago. At the time, they were in first place in the Horizon League and were getting a lot of respect. I didn't feel that they were actually the best team in the conference though and felt they were going to have some trouble on the road against a determined Valparaiso squad. That's exactly what happened. The Penguins followed it up with a loss at Butler. They're back home now though and I feel this is a good spot for them. While the competition has admittedly been pretty weak, the Penguins have been tough at home. They won their last game here (vs. Illinois Chicago) by 21 points, a dominating 71-50 effort. Overall, they're 5-1 here and the lone loss came by only three points. The Panthers are a good team, arguably more talented than Youngstown State; the reason that they're laying points on the road. However, they're only 1-4 SU their last five on the road and that victory came by just two points. They do need this game to keep their place in the standings. However, off back to back double-digit victories and with a huge showdown vs. Cleveland State on deck this weekend, I won't be surprised if they're not entirely focused on the Penguins here. These are both low-scoring and primarily defensive-minded teams. As a result, we're getting a fairly low O/U line. That's significant as the Panthers are 1-6 ATS the last seven times they played a game with an O/U line in the 120s and also 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 120s. During that time, the Penguins were 4-3 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s and 9-3 ATS against teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game. I expect them to improve on those stats here as the Penguins give their guests a much tougher game than many will be expecting. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GONZAGA. I successfully played against these same Bulldogs exactly one week ago. Listed as +4 point underdogs, they lost by 21. That was a road game at St Mary's though. This is a home game against San Francisco. BIG difference. The Bulldogs followed up their loss to St. Mary's by winning a close one at Loyola Marymount. Back home, I expect them to be motivated to deliver a blowout. The fact that rival St. Mary's won by "only" 15 against this SF team may provide Gonzaga , still smarting from last week's loss, some added motivation to win by even more than that. Keep in mind that Gonzaga won its last three home games by 22, 28 and 39 points. With double-digit wins over the likes of Arizona, Butler and Notre Dame, the Bulldogs are more than capable of a lopsided victory here. The Dons are also certainly capable of getting blown out. Yes, they did hang within 15 at St. Mary's. They lost by 25 at BYU before that though and they began conference play with a 16-point loss at Pepperdine. Including a win and cover against the Dons here last season, the Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the -15.5 to -18 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NEW MEXICO. The Aztecs have been a top tier team quite regularly in recent years. So, most casual fans probably aren't too surprised to see them ranked in the Top 25 again here. However, that is actually somewhat of a surprise, given that this team lost several key players from last year's dominant squad. Tonight, however, I expect those personnel losses to catch up to the Aztecs. After upsetting UNLV on Saturday, the Aztecs, I feel the Aztecs may be starting to get a little too cocky. Guard Chase Tapley was quoted as saying: "The Aztecs are not a team who thought we were going to be here, but we are going to be one of the top teams in the nation. We showed that ..." Give the Aztecs credit but let's not get carried away. Sorry Tapley but a home win against UNLV doesn't show me that you guys are a top team in the country. As for the previous seven games on the Aztecs' current 8-game winning streak, note that six of those came at home and that the only road game came against a bad San Diego team. Of those eight games, the Aztecs were favored in four (three by 14 or more) and the other three didn't even have lines, as the competition was so weak. Win at "The Pit" tonight and you can start to earn the right to be called an elite team. I don't expect that to happen though ... Unlike San Diego State, New Mexico brought back four starters from last season. An experienced and talented team, the Lobos have hit their stride lately. Indeed, they've won 13 in a row. That streak included victories over the likes of Washington State, Boston College, Missouri State, USC, Oklahoma State and St. Louis. Recent double-digit road wins at New Mexico State and Wyoming have also been impressive. Overall, the Lobos have outscored opponents by an average of a whopping 19.2 points while holding them to a mere 36.4% from the floor during their current 13-game winning streak. As coach Steve Alford noted after the win at Wyoming: "We have been in that mode of taking good shots for several weeks

Reason: I'm playing on KENTUCKY. Usually a "popular" pick, the Wildcats are beginning to temporarily fall out of favor with the betting public. That's because they've dropped six straight at the betting window and have been very costly to their backers every since the second week of the season. That's actually worked in our favor by keeping this line lower than it could have been. I believe that it will prove to be too low and look for today to be the day that the Wildcats finally break through with a cover. Kentucky won its last game by just three points. Prior to that, the Wildcats won by "only" 15. Those were both on the road though. The Wildcats' last home game resulted in a 15-point win and that was preceded by a 22-point neutral court victory. For the season, Kentucky is still outscoring opponents by a 84.3 to 59.7 margin at home. While the Wildcats haven't been a particularly good favorite in recent years (or this year) they are a somewhat respectable 4-3 (57%) ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home favorites in the the -15.5 to -18 range. Facing an Arkansas team that remains winless on the road, getting outscored by an average of double-digits in those losses, I expect them to improve on those numbers. Scoring only 66.5 points per game on the road, while shooting only 36.8% from the field, the Razorbacks are likely to have trouble keeping up here. They're already 0-2 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 145.5 to 149 range. That brings them to dismal 2-8 ATS (1-9 SU) their last 10 in that situation. The Razorbacks upset Kentucky by a point last season. Combine that with the fact that they just won such a close game and the Wildcats should have plenty of motivation to keep the pedal to the metal. The last meeting here at Kentucky was in January of 2010. Laying -16.5, the Wildcats jumped out to a commanding 57-27 halftime lead and cruised to a 101-71 laugher. I expect this one to also be one-sided. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. We're getting the Bucks as an underdog here. That's partly because Denver has been playing pretty well and also because the Bucks are in a back to back spot here. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. These teams faced each other at Denver a couple of weeks ago, on 1/2. Denver was laying -4.5 points and won by five. Yet, now we're at Milwaukee and the Nuggets are still favored. Keep in mind that the Bucks are a perfect 4-0 at home (3-1 ATS) while the Nuggets are only 2-3 away from Denver. That's nothing new either. The Bucks are now an impressive 56-33 here the past few seasons. During the same stretch, the Nuggets are 38-55 on the road. Note that the Nuggets are an awful 3-12 ATS (4-11 SU) the last 15 times that they were listed as road favorites of three or fewer points. Yes, the Bucks are playing the second of back to back games. However, they had two day's off, prior to yesterday's game. So, they were well-rested coming into that game. That means that this isn't nearly as grueling a scheduling spot as we've been seeing in so many cases this season. The Nuggets did beat the Bucks here last season. However, Milwaukee had previously won three straight against Denver here. I expect homecourt to be the difference as the revenge-minded Bucks move to 5-0 at home for the second time in five seasons. *10

Reason: I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. After a slow start, the Mavericks have certainly been playing well. They've absolutely crushed their last couple of opponents. That has many feeling that "the champs are back." Give them credit for the victory at Boston. However, keep in mind that the Mavs' last five games have come against five teams with a combined record of 18-42. I expect them to stumble tonight. The Lakers lost last time out. However, they'd also been previously been playing very well. Prior to the Clippers' loss, the Lakers had won five straight. As that was considered a road game, they're still an impressive 8-1 in "home" games. As you're probably aware, Kobe has been "on fire," scoring 40 or more each time out recently. While they obviously struggled against them here in the playoffs last year, the Lakers are still 14-6 as a host in this series. In the end, I expect the Lakers to be the "hungrier" team. The memory of last year's 4-0 sweep to the Mavs is still fresh in their minds. I look for Kobe continue his recent surge and for the Lakers to exact a small measure of revenge. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Bulls have certainly looked like one of the best teams in the league. They've won five straight and each win came by a minimum of nine points. For the season, they've lost just two games. (Note that both of those losses came on the road.) I expect them to stumble here. I successfully played on Memphis two games ago. Laying -4.5 points, the Grizzlies won by 11. At the time, I suggested that they were determined to show that they could win without Randolph. They proved that was the case. Afterwards, listening Rudy Gay's post game comments - it seemed Gay and co. were indeed looking to show that the Grizzlies were about more than just Randolph. After winning with them against the Knicks, I was sorely tempted to come back with the Grizzlies in their next game, a Saturday contest against New Orleans. However, in the end I felt that they were laying a little too big a number and so decided to avoid the game. The Grizzlies did win and did play well. However, they failed to cover, winning by nine as -10.5 point favorites. Despite the non-cover, the Grizzlies have to be pleased with their performance. I expect them to be extremely motivated to follow it up with another big effort here. For starters, this is their chance to beat an elite team on National TV and in front of their home fans, proving once and for all that they can indeed win without Randolph. Perhaps more importantly, additional motivation should be provided by the fact the Bulls already absolutely crushed the Grizzlies (at Chicago) earlier this season. That was by far the Grizzlies' biggest loss of the season and that should serve them well in the motivation department well. The Grizzlies have won four of their last five home games and are now 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS their last 20 here. Of the four losses, note that three came by five or fewer points and two came by three or less. Despite losing here last season, the Grizzlies are still 10-2 the last 12 times they hosted the Bulls. They were 9-3 ATS in those games and I expect AT LEAST another cover here. *10 MLK Day Main Event

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANA STATE. Wichita State crushed a bad Bradley team last time out. The Shockers were 0-4 ATS their previous four games though, including a pair of wins by three or fewer points. Off such a big blowout win and having a big showdown at Northern Iowa on deck, the Shockers may get caught looking past their hosts tonight. That may well prove costly. The Sycamores are only 2-3 SU since New Year's Eve. However, they won their most recent home game and two of those three losses came by less than seven points. They're still 11-5 on the season, including a win at Vanderbilt. The Sycamores also beat Texas Tech by double-digits while losing by just seven on a neutral court against a good Minnesota club. I don't expect them to be intimidated here. Both teams played Friday. That's noteworthy as the Shockers are 0-2 SU/ATS when playing with one or less day's rest in between games this season - their only two SU losses of the season. The Sycamores, on the other hand, are 1-0-1 ATS in that situation this year, winning vs. Fairfield while 'pushing' vs. Minnesota. They're now 7-2-1 ATS (7-3 SU) the last 10 times that they played with one or less day's rest in between games. The Sycamores "shocked" Wichita State last March. I'll grab the points but another outright upset won't surprise. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GREEN BAY. The Giants were certainly impressive in beating Atlanta. They suddenly seem to be playing their best football and many are starting to make comparisons to the 2007 team, the one that knocked off the Packers in the playoffs. The way they're currently playing, I actually think these Giants compare to the Superbowl winning team. That said, this version of the Packers is MUCH improved from the team New York knocked off in the 2007/2008 playoffs. The Giants came in here and upset the Packers on that 1/20/18 game. That was a Green Bay team led by an aging Brett Favre though. Now, of course, they're led by Aaron Rodgers, who's coming off one of the best seasons of the modern era. The Packers weren't defending Superbowl champs when they faced the Giants in that playoff game. They're the defending champs now and that brings both pride and confidence. Of course, they weren't coming off a 15-1 regular season either. Perhaps most importantly, the Packers also weren't coming off a bye; they'd beaten Seattle the week before. I feel the Packers will have a coaching advantage here. Having the extra week of preparation time helps even more. The Packers are 15-7 the last 22 times that they played with two or more week's worth of rest in between games. That includes a 3-0 SU/ATS mark the last three times this well-coached team was in that spot. The Giants did play the Packers tough at New York in the regular season, Green Bay won that one by a score of 38-35. That wasn't here at Lambeau though. The Packers won huge the last time that the Giants played here, the score of that 12/26/10 game was 45-17 in favor of Green Bay. Including that victory the Packers are 21-3 SU and 17-6-1 ATS their last 24 here. They haven't forgotten the previous playoff loss and I look for them to avenge that defeat in convincing fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Texans took a huge step by winning last week's playoff game. That was at home against a mediocre Cincinnati team. Now, they're playing on the road against a very good Baltimore team. I expect them to be over their heads. Playing without their starting QB, the Texans have already "done enough" to be satisfied. They're not expected to win here and the season can be considered a success no matter what happens here. Not so for the Ravens. Anything less than a victory and the season will be considered a failure. While that does bring some added pressure, I feel this Baltimore team has the type of makeup that will thrive off that situation. The Ravens were 8-0 at home this season. That included a 29-14 blowout of these same Texans back on 10/16. The Ravens, who were also coming off a bye before that game, moved to 3-0 SU/ATS when off a bye. Overall, the Ravens outscored opposing teams by a whopping 27.4 to 14.9 margin here at home. That includes blowout wins over the likes of Pittsburgh (35-7) the Jets (34-17) and the 49ers (16-6.) The Ravens have been here. They're playing at home and coming off a bye. They expect to win and I expect them to do so convincingly. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I won with the 'over' when these same two teams faced each other last night. The O/U line was in the 180s and the game finished with a final combined score of 209, a 120-89 victory by the 76ers. Tonight, however, I feel the value lies with the home underdog Wizards. Clearly, Philadelphia has been the better team this season. The 76ers have played well on both sides of the ball; the Wizards have not. Obviously, the 76ers took care of business with ease on their home floor last night. That beatdown should give the Wizards some extra motivation here. Having been embarrassed like that, they certainly don't want to have it happen against the same team on consecutive nights - not in front of their home fans. Last night's game was going to be hard for them to win - no matter what. Tonight, however, the Wizards are on their home floor, which should give them reason to believe. The Wizards won their last home game by 15 points. They had lost their previous four home games. However, it should be noted that three of those four losses came by eight or fewer points. Its also worth noting that the Wizards are 4-0 the last four times they were a host in this series, going 9-2 the last 11 meetings here. (Both the losses came by eight or fewer points.) Obviously, both teams are in a back-to-back spot. Both are also playing their third game in the past four nights, as each played on 1/11. However, the 76ers also played on 1/10, while the Wizards had that day off. That means that they'll be playing their fourth game in five nights - not the case for Washington. The 76ers are only 16-30 SU the past few seasons when playing the second of back to back games. Now, despite the tough scheduling spot, they're being asked to "lay more than a touchdown." I believe that's asking too much. *10

Reason: I'm playing on VALPARAISO. The Penguins are the hotter team and they're currently ahead of the Crusaders in the Horizon League standings. I feel the Crusaders are the stronger team though. Given the fact that they're behind the Penguins in the standings, the Crusaders know they can't afford to squander this opportunity to gain ground. Playing on their homecourt, I expect them to rise to the occasion and get it done. With an O/U line in the mid 140s, this is expected to be a fairly high-scoring game. That should serve the high-scoring Crusaders fine. Valparaiso, which averages 77.5 points per game at home, hitting 49.8% of its shots, is 14-9-1 ATS the past few seasons when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s. The Penguins, who average less than 70 per game regardless of venue, don't fare so well in that situation. During the same stetch, they're just 4-9-2 ATS (2-13 SU) when playing a game with a total in the 140s. The Crusaders have a history of success on Friday nights (19-7 ATS L26 Friday lined games) and they've fared well when off a conference loss. They're 10-5 ATS their last 15 in that situation. The Crusaders won by nine the last time they faced the Penguins, last March. That didn't result in a cover though, as they were laying -13 points. The Crusaders did cover the spread in each of the previous 2011 meetings though. Laying -7.5, they won by eight at Youngstown State. Meanwhile, laying -14 here at Valparaiso, the Crusaders won by 24. I still feel they're the more talented team and this time, we're laying a much smaller number. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ST MARY'S. The Bulldogs have the higher ranking. However, playing at home, I feel the Gaels are favored for good reason. The Gaels have only lost two games all year. One came on the road in November. They responded to that one by winning eight straight games. Next was a neutral court loss vs. highly ranked Baylor. They've since responded to that setback with five straight victories, four of them coming by double-digits. They scored 77, 98, 74, 78 and 87 in those five games. so, this team knows how to score. Its also worth noting that the Gaels are 23-8 ATS the past few seasons when off a game in which they scored 80 or more points. I feel they're currently stronger than the Bulldogs and I look for them to prove it tonight. *10 (Roast)

Reason: I'm playing on PENN STATE. Both these teams should be happy to step down in class as they've each been facing stronger teams recently. Both teams will view this as a game they can win. With an O/U line significantly less than 120, its expected to be a very low-scoring contest. That typically makes every point more meaningful. In this case, I feel the offensively-challenged Huskers are laying too large a number. We can't really fault the Huskers for losing their last four games. That's because those games came against the likes of Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State and Illinois. The fact that they failed to score more than 55 points in any of those games, while managing only 40 twice, is rather disturbing though. True, those are all very good defensive teams - but the Huskers averaged just 47.25 points. They were competitive at Illinois last time out, losing by five - but the previous three losses all came by double-digits. Prior to that brutal 4-game stretch, the Huskers hosted Central Michigan. Despite laying -12.5 points, Nebraska won by only three. They'd previously beaten USC by three and "Florida Gulf Coast" by only one - while losing by two vs. Wake Forest. So, they're certainly very capable of playing close games; often the case for low-scoring and defensive-minded teams. Note that Nebraska is just 3-5 ATS the last eight times it was listed as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. While they aren't a high-scoring team either, the Nittany Lions did score 82 last time out. That's more than the Huskers' managed in their games against Ohio State and Wisconsin combined! They haven't had success on the road yet - but the Nittany Lions should be feeling confident about their chances here. Prior to the 6-point loss vs. Indiana, the Nittany Lions pounded Purdue by a score of 65-45. The Huskers are 1-3 ATS the last four times that they played a game when the O/U line was less than 120. That includes an 0-3 ATS mark at home. On the other hand, the Nittany Lions are 4-0-1 ATS the last five times they played a game with an O/U line of less than 120, including a 2-0 ATS mark in road games with a total below the 120 mark. They're 4-1 ATS their last five in that situation. They're also 4-1 ATS the last five times they allowed 80 or more points in their previous game. In a game that could easily come right down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BOSTON. After a slow start, the Mavericks are starting to look like champs again. While they did look good at Detroit last night, I don't feel the Mavs are all the way back yet. In a tough scheduling spot and playing a top tier team on the road, I expect the Mavs to fall back below the .500 mark here. Yes, last night's win was "easy," so it wasn't as taxing as it could have been. However, the Mavs still did have to play - and they'll still be without Jason Kidd tonight. His absence will likely hurt more in a b2b spot and against an elite team. I played against the Mavs the last time that they played the second of b2b games and they got hammered at San Antonio. Now, they'll take on a well-rested Celtics team which figures to be in a foul mood after being upset by Indiana on Monday. (Prior to that, the Celtics had won four in a row.) Note that the Celtics are 15-8 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when coming off a double-digit loss. The Celtics surely view that they could have beaten Dallas if they'd won the Eastern Conference last year. While it won't mean its true, a convincing win here will help them hold onto that belief. This is their first chance to host a good team this year and I expect the Celt, 30-14 SU the L44 times they were off an upset loss, to rise to the occasion with their best game. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Clippers have taken care of business at home, including a victory over the Blazers at LA. They're only 1-1 on the road though. They won at Golden State on opening day but were crushed at San Antonio in their only other road contest. I was against them in that game and this is arguably an even tougher venue. I expect them to struggle once again. The Blazers are a perfect 5-0 at home this season. Only the Spurs, who are now 6-0 at San Antonio, have a better home record. They won their first game here by only four points. However, since then, each of their next four victories has come by a minimum of nine points. They beat Cleveland by 20 here last game. Before that, they beat the Lakers by 11. Overall, they're outscoring teams by a commanding 104.8 to 91.6 margin at home. In addition to their perfect home record, having also won convincingly at Oklahoma City, the Blazers are playing arguably as well as any team in the West right now. This is another chance to prove it. Throw in the fact that they're playing with 'revenge' from one of their only two losses and I expect them to be extremely focused. While the Clippers are 1-2 SU/ATS against teams with a winning record, the Blazers are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when facing a team with a winning record. They dominated the "old" Clippers here for years. I expect them to do so again tonight. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ALABAMA. As you are surely aware, this is a rematch of an earlier meeting, at Alabama. While some may not like it, I believe its the best matchup. (Lets not forget that Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State.) More importantly, like it or not, I believe Alabama will prove that it belongs to be here. Many will likely point to the fact that LSU won at Tuscaloosa and they'll be quick to back the undefeated Tigers at New Orleans. That game was hardly a "blowout" though. If you recall, it went to Overtime, a 9-6 victory for the Tigers. A look at the stats reminds us that Alabama had a 295 to 239 edge in total yards. The Tide had a slight edge in time of possession and had more first downs. While LSU punted six times, Alabama did so only twice. Missed field goals (Alabama missed four) were the difference. I agree with Alabama coach Nick Saban when he said the following though: "This could be a totally different type of game. There's so many good players on both sides of the ball for both teams. There's so much opportunity for this game to play out completely different and have a completely different flavor than the first game." Note that Alabama still leads 45-25-5 in this rivalry, dating all the way back to 1895. While LSU had a very slight edge in overall points scored (38.5 to 36), keep in mind that Alabama averaged 433.4 yards to LSU's 375.3. Also, on the road, Alabama averaged 36.6 points and 424.6 yards. LSU, when playing on the road, averaged 35.3 points and 331 yards. (Of course, that's due in no small part to the fact that LSU had to play Alabama on the road.) More importantly, lets not forget that Alabama still has the #1 ranked defense in the country and that ALL 11 of its victories came by at least 16 points. The Tide allowed 191.3 yards per game. The Tigers allowed 252.1. We don't always get second chances in life and teams rarely get them (at this stage) in football. The Tide get one here and I expect them to make the most of it. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Giants have the higher seed, based on winning their division. However, Atlanta finished with more victories - I believe the Falcons will prove to be the better team. A closer look at the stats shows that the Giants were actually outscored by a 25.0 to 24.6 margin this season. They did have an edge in yards but it was so slight (383.6 to 376.4) that it was basically equal. The Falcons, on the other hand, outscored teams by a 25.1 to 21.9 margin. And they outgained them by a significant 376.6 to 333.6 margin. Those numbers were even better on the road where the Falcons outgained teams by a 385.4 to 338.6 count. The Giants are just 9-14-1 ATS on the road the past few seasons. The Falcons are 14-10 ATS on the road. The Falcons are 5-3 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. The Giants are just 2-6 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the same range. The Giants covered here in 2009, losing by three points, 37-34. They've grown up and are a better team now. I feel they're better coached and I'm expecting an upset. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. The Hoyas have the higher ranking. However, I believe the Mountaineers are favored for good reason. I successfully played against Georgetown last time out. Laying -4 or -5 at home vs. Marquette, the Hoyas rallied for a comeback win. However, that victory came by only three points. So, they didn't cover. That's back-to-back ATS losses and two of their last three wins coming by three points. Give the Hoyas credit for finding a way to win but they won't be able to pull all these close ones out and I expect their good fortune to temporarily come to an end here. The Mountaineers did lose vs. Kent State here out of the gate. However, they've responded by going 4-0 SU/ATS their last four home lined games, most recently a double-digit blowout of Villanova on 12/28. Their lone 2012 game was played on the road (at Rutgers) and saw them win by 21. So, they've got plenty of positive momentum and confidence here. The Mountaineers won by six at Georgetown last January, their fourth straight meeting in the series. Georgetown was ranked at the time, WVU wasn't. The last meeting here at WVU saw them win by 13. Beating ranked opponents here is "no big deal" to the Mountaineers. Three straight (and seven of the last nine) ranked opponents have left here with a loss. In need of a big win, I expect the Mountaineers to take down yet another ranked opponent here, continuing their recent dominance in this series. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHARLOTTE . Given the setup, I believe the wrong team is favored in this one. The Bobcats got back on a track with a big win at NY on Wednesday. They had yesterday off and are now back home, where they are already 2-1 ATS this season. Keep in mind that the Bobcats are 53-34 SU at home the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, the Hawks are 44-53 SU on the road. While the Bobcats had yesterday off, the Hawks are off a triple-OT loss vs. Miami. Not only is this a back-to-back spot but its also their fourth game in five days AND their 8th game in 11 days since they started the season. As if that wasn't grueling enough, they've got a big "revenge" game vs. Chicago on deck tomorrow night! The Bobcats started a day earlier (on Dec 26th instead of 27th) but have played one fewer game than the Hawks, while also traveling less. The Bobcats have have plenty of success as a host in this series. Most recently, they won 96-85 here last April. The Bobcats are also 19-13 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off an "upset" win. I expect them to be "fresher" team here leading to another "upset." *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers have quietly been one of the most impressive teams in the league thus far. Tonight offers them a chance to get some recognition for their fast start by beating up on the Lakers on National TV. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. Many tend to want to immediately grab the points when the Lakers are underdogs. However, they really haven't been that good in that role the past few seasons. In fact, the Lakers are only 12-16 ATS (9-19 SU) the last 28 times that they were listed as underdogs, most recently losing by nine at Denver. The Blazers lone loss this season came on New Year's Day, on the road, vs. the Clippers. They've won every other game by at least six points, most recently a 10-point win at Oklahoma City. They're 3-0 at home, outscoring teams by a 106.3 to 94.7 margin here. The Lakers, on the other hand, are 0-2 on the road. They've been outscored by an average of 99.5 to 90.5 in those games, losing by nine at Sacramento and then by nine at Denver. This is arguably a much tougher venue. With this season's perfect start, the Blazers are now 62-29 here the past 2+ seasons. The Blazers are also 26-12 SU/ATS the last 38 times they hosted the Lakers. They won 93-86 the last time that the teams played here. Both teams had yesterday off. However, while this will already be the Lakers' eighth game, it will only be Portland's sixth. I expect the Blazers to prove fresher and hungrier and I look for that to translate to another win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on VILLANOVA. The Wildcats are off back to back losses. Those games came at West Virginia and Marquette though. They nearly defeated Marquette too, losing by only four there. They're taking a step down in class here, while returning home at the same time. Hungry for a big win, I expect them to win this one by double-digits. As we saw in their 77 point effort at Marquette, the Wildcats can score. They average 72.9 per game, 79.2 The Bulls do play solid defense - but I expect them to have some trouble keeping up here. They average just 61.3 points per game, a mere 49 per game on the road. With the cover at Marquette, the Wildcats are now 15-3 ATS in January the past couple of seasons, as this has been their time to shine. That includes a 83-71 win and cover at USF almost exactly one year ago, on 1/6/2011. Laying -7.5, the Wildcats won by 12. The most recent meeting here at Villanova saw the Wildcats beat the Bulls by a score of 74-49. I expect the Wildcats to continue their January success with another double-digit victory here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MARQUETTE. Having won 10 straight, the Hoyas have certainly put together and impressive winning streak. The Golden Eagles have already won 10 straight themselves this season though and I won't be surprised if they're the team that snaps Georgetown's streak tonight. Georgetown coach John Thompson knows not to be fooled by Marquette's ranking. He was quoted as saying:

Reason: I'm playing on V-TECH. I was happy to see the Hokies get blown out by Clemson in their last game, as I had a big play on Clemson in that one. However, I fully expect them to bounce back with a MUCH better effort here. Prior to the Clemson loss, the Hokies had won seven straight and 11 of 12. In fact, Clemson was the only team to beat them all year. Admittedly, the rest of the schedule wasn't all that challenging - however, the Hokies took care of business, beating the likes of Virginia, UNC, Miami, Georgia-Tech and Wake Forest. Michigan did close out the season with wins over Ohio State and Nebraska, which will stand in bettors' memories - like the Hokies' loss to Clemson. However, before that, their biggest wins were Ilinois and Notre Dame - and they were very fortunate to beat Notre Dame. They lost by double-digits against Michigan State and by eight vs. Iowa. So, the Wolverines' schedule wasn't all that tough either. Both teams should be motivated to win. However, I really feel that the season-ending loss to Clemson has left a bad taste in the mouths of the Hokies and I expect them to be a little more "hungry" here. Michigan, on the other hand, is just 2-7 ATS its last nine, when off a conference win. The Wolverines are an awful 5-15 ATS against teams with a winning record the past few seasons. During that stretch, the Hokies were 10-7 ATS (12-5 SU) against teams with a winning record. The Wolverines are 3-4 ATS the past few seasons when playing with a line in the +3 to -3 range. During that stretch, the Hokies are 4-1 SU/ATS when doing so. I expect them to be the team which "gets the cash" once again. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Give the Nuggets credit for knocking off the Lakers last night. That was the second time that they'd faced the Lakers in two days, the previous game coming at LA on Saturday. Both games were hard fought. That puts the Nuggets in a very difficult "back-to-back-to-back spot. That's rarely a good situation. But in this case, I expect it to really play a factor. After yesterday's loss, the Lakers were talking about fatigue being a factor. While both teams were in a back-to-back spot, the Lakers had played a more grueling schedule before that. This time, however, its the Nuggets who are likely to be sucking wind. Three games in three nights is going to be hard at the best of times. However, this is now also going to be back to back games in the high altitude of Denver. That's asking a lot for teams who barely had a chance to properly get conditioned before the season started this year. Of course, in addition to the physical exhaustion, a win over the Lakers may also have them ripe for an emotional letdown. The well-rested Bucks, who last played on 12/30, do have a much better SU record at home. They've quietly gone a profitable 50-35-2 ATS on the road the past couple of seasons though. They're off consecutive victories and their lone loss was by a single point. I'll gladly grab the points but this is a great spot for them to score an upset. *10

Reason: I'm playing on STANFORD. Regulars will recall that I had a big winning play against Stanford when the Cardinal faced California. However, that play was based (in large part) on the fact that I felt Stanford would be "disappointed," due to having lost (vs. Oregon) the previous week. That indeed seemed to be the case. The Cardinal did win. However, they only won by three points, a game in which they were laying -17.5. The Cardinal have had plenty of time to recover from that disappointment though and I feel that they'll be completely "up" for this game. Regulars will also recall that I had a big play against Oklahoma State when the Cowboys lost to Iowa State. I had a number of reasons for playing against the Cowboys in that game. Mostly, however, I felt that they were simply laying too many points. I'll admit that I didn't actually expect the Cowboys to lose outright in that game. However, that's exactly what happened. To their credit, the Cowboys responded to that setback by blowing out Oklahoma in their next game - no small feat. However, as you know, that still wasn't enough to get them into the National Championship game. The Cowboys feel like they received the short end of the stick. Unlike Stanford, they're "disappointed" to be here. I expect that to have a negative effect on them. In addition to the fact that Stanford is happier to be here, I feel the Cardinal match up very well with the Cowboys and that the teams are quite evenly matched. Obviously, both have bigtime QBs. However, Luck is the much bigger NFL prospect and I feel that's for good reason. The Cowboys #1 receiver is arguably better than any of Stanford's receivers - however, Luck is so good that he makes all his receivers excellent. While Luck gets all the attention, its on the defensive side of the ball where the Cardinal should have the advantage. Stanford allowed 20.3 points per game and 19.8 on the road. The Cardinal allowed 331.1 yards per game, 328.4 away from home. On the other hand, the Cowboys allowed 25.8 points per game and 445.7 yards. While the Cowboys lost vs. lowly Iowa State, Stanford's lone loss came vs. Oregon, one of the best teams in the country. The Cowboys have been great at the betting window for a few years now. The Cardinal have been even better though. While I expect an outright win, I'll gladly grab all the points I can get! *10

Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I successfully played against Nebraska in last year's bowl game. The Huskers were double-digit favorites but lost outright by a score of 19-7 against Washington. I also successfully played against South Carolina in last year's bowl game. The Gamecocks were favored by three points but lost outright (26-17) against Florida State. This year, however, I'm backing the Gamecocks. For starers, I feel the Gamecocks are a better team. Playing in the SEC, they finished with 10 wins. Nebraska played in the Big-Ten but only finished with nine wins. Nebraska beat Penn State - however, that was after the scandal - and the Huskers won by only three points. They beat Iowa and Washington, Ohio State and Michigan State. However, those wins all came at home and they only covered in two of them. They were crushed by Wisconsin and Michigan (48-17 and 45-17!) and even lost at home vs. Northwestern, when laying -17.5. South Carolina beat the likes of Georgia, Navy, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Flordia and Clemson. They did get blown out at Arkansas - but not by nearly as much as Nebraska did against Michigan or Wisconsin. Their other loss (vs. Auburn) came by three points. Both teams averaged roughly 30 points per game. Nebraska scored 30.5, South Carolina scored 30.1. However, South Carolina's numbers improved on the road (31.4 ppg) while Nebraska managed only 26 on the road. Also, note that the Gamecocks averaged better than 30 points their last three games while the Huskers averaged just 18. On the other side of the ball, the Gamecocks allowed a mere 18.8 points per game and just 268.9 yards per game. That 269 ypg ranks fourth best in the country. (That includes a 133 mark against the pass, second best in the country.) Meanwhile, the Huskers allow 22.8 points per game and 350.7 yards. Those numbers climb to 27 and 367.6 on the road. The Gamecocks should have plenty of motivation. They haven't won a bowl under Spurrier AND a win here will give them the first 11 win season in school history. As defensive end Melvin Ingram noted: "Since I've been here, we haven't won a bowl game and so we're trying to go out and change that, got out and get that 11th win and make history..." All things considered, in my opinion, getting the Gamecocks at such a short number is a bargain. They're 6-2 SU/ATS the last eight times that they played a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range, including a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark their last three in that situation. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DALLAS. I'll be the first to admit that the Cowboys have cost me a couple of times recently. I did win in their game against Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago. However, that was sandwiched between losses against these same Giants before that - and the Eagles last week. Those setbacks won't prevent me from backing them here though. The loss against the Eagles was tough, as Romo got hurt early - and due to the Giants having beaten the Jets earlier, the Cowboys decided to "go through the motions" a little. In hindsight, that was a bad pick. I don't necessarily feel that way about the loss against the Giants though. Indeed, the Cowboys were up by 12 late in the fourth quarter of that one. While they deserve credit for the victory, the Giants were a little fortunate in that one. Not only did they block a critical field goal but they benefitted from some key penalties and a poor punt by Dallas' normally reliable punter. While the Cowboys were favored in that one, they're underdogs here. That's noteworthy as we find them at 9-5 ATS the past few seasons, when getting points. During that stretch, the Giants were a poor 12-17-1 ATS when laying points. That includes an 0-2-1 ATS (1-2 SU) mark as a home favorite of three or fewer points. Note that the Giants are also a dismal 1-6-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. I'll gladly grab the points. However, I look for the Cowboys to rise to the occasion and score the "upset." *10

Reason: I'm playing on ARIZONA. Last year, in Week 17, I successfully played ON Seattle (16-6 win as a +4 point underdog) while also successfully playing AGAINST Arizona. (The Cardinals lost 38-7 as a +6 point underdog!) I had good reason to play on the Seahawks AND against the Cards in those games though. While "motivation" is always an important factor to consider, its more important than ever in Week 17. Last year, I felt the Seahawks would be "hungry" and that the Cards would not be. This year, I feel very differently about the motivation levels of both teams. I actualy backed the Seahawks when these teams faced each other at Seattle on 9/25. At the time, I felt the Seahawks were at least as good as the Cards - yet, despite playing at home, they were listed as +3 point underdogs. Not surprisingly, Seattle won outright. That result should work in our favor here. That's because it puts the Cards in the 'revenge' role. Combine that with the fact that this is their home finale - and I expect their best effort. After slow starts, both teams have played MUCH better down the stretch. However, while the Seahawks have had a couple of more "high profile" victories, the Cards have done so more quietly. Both teams were officially eliminated from playoff contention last week. However, I feel that the Seahawks will experience a bigger letdown from that fact - as their chances were somewhat better than Arizona's and they seemed to actually believe they had a chance - and continued to talk about it. The Cards knew their chances were basically non-existent and didn't allow themselves to "get excited" the same way that Seattle did. Note that the Cards have won four straight here and are 5-2 at home on the season. That includes victories over the likes of the Cowboys and the 49ers. The lone losses here came against Pittsburgh and the Giants. On the other hand, the Seahawks are 3-4 on the road. Going back further, the Cards are 14-10 at home the past few seasons; the Seahawks are 6-18 on the road. Also, note that the Cards have rallied from fourth-quarter deficits six times this season, one shy of the NFL record. They've won three games in overtime, tying the league record. In other words, this is a team that doesn't quit. While both teams lost last week, I like how Arizona lost better. Down 23-0, the Cards outscored Cincy 16-0 in the fourth, nearly battling all the way back. On the other hand, Seattle had an early and halftime lead vs. SF but let it slip away. That type of loss can be more difficult to "bounce back" from. Note that Seattle is just 1-5 SU/ATS the last six times it was off a divisional loss - a situation the Seahawks don't seem to handle too well. In the end, I expect the Cards to be more "hungry" and look for that to lead to a win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DETROIT. The Pacers are off to a much better start than the Pistons. They won last night and are now 3-0. Meanwhile, the Pistons lost last night and are now 0-3. Not surprisingly, given those records, Indiana is favored. However, I expect the Pistons to be the "hungrier" team tonight and look for them to break through with their first victory. True, the Pacers are 3-0. However, two of those games were at home (one against these same Pistons) and the lone road game came at Toronto, a mediocre team - at best. Note that the Pacers shot 38.3% last night - and have yet to hit 40% in any game this season. So, they haven't exactly been "on fire." (They were 0-18 last year when shooting below 40%.) Meanwhile, the Pistons have played two of three on the road, including a game at Boston last night. So, the disparity in records needs to be "taken with a grain of salt." It should also be noted that the Pacers had to go to overtime last night - arguably a much harder fought (and taxing) game than the Pistons had - Detroit was down big from the beginning against Boston. Five Pistons played more than 33 minutes, three of them played more than 35 minutes. Only two Pistons played more than 30 minutes, none played 34. With their loss on Boxing Day, the Pistons have now dropped seven straight at Indiana. However, they've beaten the Pacers twice in a row here at Detroit, most recently a 100-88 victory here last March. Going back further finds the Pistons at 10-3 the last 13 times they were a host in this series. Catching the Pacers off last night's OT thriller, I look for the revenge-minded Pistons to step up and score the minor upset here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Commodores hail from the better conference. I believe the Bearcats will prove to be the better team. While I believe they could still win without him, the Bearcats are expected to have senior QB Zach Collaros back behind center. As Isaiah Pead (11 TDS, 1,110 rushing yards) noted: "We're glad to see him out there. Anytime you've got a fifth-year senior at any position on offense, it's a comfortable feeling. We're very happy to have him back." I guess so! All Collaros did was comple 63.4 percent of his throws for 1,860 yards, 14 TDs and eight interceptions. He also ran for eight scores. Remember, he was the Big East leader in passing yards AND TDs last season. While Collaros has certainly played a big part, the Bearcats defense is arguably the biggest difference in the turnaround from a 4-8 2010 to a 9-3 2011. Cincinnati allowed an average of just 20.0 points this season - down from 28 last year. Note the the Bearcats' D led the nation with 3.6 sacks and 8.9 tackles for loss per game. While the schedule was naturally quite tough, the Commodores were still only 6-6 this season. They like to run the ball - and they'll be up against a Cincy run defense which ranked seventh in the entire nation, giving up a mere 92.6 yards per game. Vanderbilt, which has 1st year coach, is only 1-12 SU and 5-8 ATS the last 1 times it faced a team with a winning record. I like what Butch Jones, now in his second year here, has done with the Bearcats and I look for them to step up and score the minor "upset." *10

Reason: I'm playing on CONNECTICUT. While they'll still be without their coach (so is St. John's) I expect the Huskies to be extremely focused here. That's because the Red Storm have actually beaten the Huskies in back to back meetings, blowing them out in both those games. Neither of those games was here at Connecticut though, where the Huskies have beaten the Red Storm seven straight times. While the Red Storm are off an impressive home win over Providence, I expect them to be in over their heads here. Winning on the road in the Big East is rarely easy and in this case the Red Storm are outclassed, in more ways than one. The Red Storm used only seven players Tuesday as they're short-handed due to player departures and eligibility issues. That won't cut it here. In addition to having far greater depth (and talent) the Huskies have a serious size advantage. Indeed, they've got five players in their regular rotation who are 6-foot-8 or taller, three of them are starters - St John's only has two. With all that size, its not surprising that the Huskies lead the Big East in blocks per game - they average 7.8 per game. If they have a weakness, its their three-point defense. However, the Red Storm aren't the type of team to exploit that, as they're the worst 3-point shooting team in the conference. The Huskies, 16-6 ATS the last 22 times they were off a conference win, have beaten the Red Storm by 16, 16, 16 and 22 points the last four meetings here. With the Huskies looking for some "payback," I expect another one-sided result here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. I won with the Rockets yesterday. However, today, I'm going the other way. If the Spurs beat the Grizzlies and the Rockets beat the Spurs, then shouldn't the Rockets beat the Grizzlies? If only it were that easy! Unfortunately, that type of logic rarely holds up when it comes to beating the pointspread. Rather, we must look at various situational factors, among many other things. In this case, I fully expect the Grizzlies to have the advantage. Yes, the Grizzlies lost to the Spurs. However, that was at San Antonio and the Spurs had "payback" on their minds, due to the Grizzlies having knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Yes, the Rockets beat the Spurs. However, unlike Memphis, the Rockets got to host the Spurs, rather than playing at San Antonio. They also caught the Spurs playing the second of back to back games and in "letdown" mode, after back to back "big" wins. This time, its the Rockets who may be ripe for a letdown, having just beaten an instate rival. Perhaps more importantly, the Rockets are also playing the second of back to back games. Memphis, on the other hand, gets to play at home AND had last night off. Having started 0-2, the Grizzlies should be extremely motivated here. That's particularly true as they play at Chicago next, a difficult venue. In other words, they could easily be 0-4, if they don't take care of business tonight. Even including the loss against the Spurs, the Grizzlies remain a profitable 24-15 ATS the past 2+ seasons against divisional foes. During that stretch, including last night's win, the Rockets are just 16-17 ATS against divisional opponents. Given the fact that the Grizzlies are 58-31 at home during that stretch, its no surprise that Memphis won and covered the last time that the teams faced each other here. (Although Houston had previously had success here.) Including that victory, the Grizzlies were 46-36-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, when laying points. I expect them to be both fresher and hungrier tonight, improving on those stats in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. I successfully played on the Spurs yesterday. That was at home though and they were facing a Clippers team which they have now beaten 17 straight times at San Antonio. With a chance to hand the heavily hyped Clippers their first loss, I expected the veteran team to rise to the occasion with their best effort. That proved to be the case. Tonight, however, the Spurs are playing the second of back to back games for the first time this season. With the short exhibition season, I feel they're likely to have some trouble doing so for the first time. Also, off back to back "big" wins, I won't be surprised if they experience a bit of a "letdown" here. After all, their first win was against Memphis, the team that knocked them out of the playoffs. And, as mentioned, yesterday's game was another "big" one, due to all the attention that the Clippers have been receiving. Tonight, they're on the road against a team which doesn't necessarily warrant any special attention - other than that the Rockets hail from the same state. The Rockets, on the other hand, should be extremely motivated. The Spurs are viewed as an elite team. So, a win against them would be highly desirable. Also, this is the Rockets' home opener. So, of course, they'd really like to win that one. That's particularly true given that they've got a new coach; a win against the Spurs would be a great "first" for McHale with Houston. While the Spurs are playing the second of back to back games, the Rockets are well-rested. Their only game came on 12/26. Some might be surprised to learn that the Rockets' home record is actually better than the Spurs' road record the past couple of seasons. The Spurs are 47-43 on the road during that time, the Rockets are 48-34 at home. Despite losing at Orlando in their opener, the Rockets remain an impressive 22-10 SU and 20-11-1 ATS in December the past few seasons, also much better than the Spurs' record. (Although, naturally, this December is "different" from recent ones, due to the lockout.) While they've had trouble at San Antonio, the Rockets have won two of their last three home meetings with the Spurs, going 5-3 the last eight times that they were a host in the series. I expect the Rockets to be both the "fresher" and the "hungrier" team and for that to lead to a victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. I've won with Florida State in back to back bowl games. Last season, I backed the Seminoles against South Carolina and they rewarded me with a 26-17 victory. The previous year, I backed them against West Virginia and they came through with a 33-21 win. While I still respect the Seminoles, this year, I feel the value lies in going against them. In each of the last two years, I felt the Seminoles were providing strong value as underdogs. Those were both relatively "big" bowl games as they were played on 12/31 and 1/1. They also represented Bowden's last bowl game and Fischer's first, without Bowden. So, there was plenty of reason to be excited for those games and they had a lot of motivation to win them. In each of the last two bowls, the Seminoles were underdogs. This year, however, they're the ones laying points. That's not such a good role for them. The Noles are 11-14 ATS the last 25 times that they were laying points and that inlcudes an ugly 2-5 ATS mark as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. Four of those five ATS losses resulted in SU losses, too. During the same stretch, the Irish were 6-2-1 ATS as underdogs, including a 5-2-1 ATS mark as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. The Irish did lose at Stanford to close out the season. However, they'd previously won four straight and eight of nine. Note that two of their four losses came by four or less. Also, two of Notre Dame's victories came by three or less. So, getting more than a field goal could certainly prove valuable. Likewise, the Seminoles saw four games decided by five or fewer goals, most recently a 14-13 loss vs. Virginia (as a double-digit favorite!) in their home finale. While the Florida State defense is admittedly stout, the offense has been hampered by injuries all season. The Seminoles' offensive line is a weakness and the running game ranked just 99th in the country. I expect the Irish to have an advantage in that department. In what could well be a very close game, with this line having climbed above the field goal mark, I feel the value lies with the Irish. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Clippers are obviously going to be much improved this season; as you know they already earned an impressive victory in their opener. That was against Golden State though. Tonight, they're taking a big step up in class to take on the Spurs, a genuine "top tier" opponent. I expect them to stumble. While the Clippers did admittedly look impressive in their opener, we can't expect them to immediately have the type of "team chemistry" that the Spurs have developed over years of playing together. Despite the opening victory, Blake Griffin acknowledged: "We

Reason: I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. This line has come down from its opener. I feel that's providing us with excellent value on the undefeated home team. Thats right, the Cardinals check in with a perfect 12-0 record. Yet, because they've failed to cover a few in a row (and because Georgetown is also playing well) the line is very low. Some might expect the Cardinals to get caught looking ahead to Saturday's showdown with rival Kentucky. I don't expect that to be the case for this well-coached team though - one which absolutely wants to keep the undefeated record in tact, before facing the Wildcats. As senior guard Chris Smith noted Tuesday: "We haven't talked about Kentucky one time yet, and we're going to keep it like that until we come out with a W tomorrow..." Coach Rick Pitino added: "One thing I've learned to do with my age, I really don't look ahead..." The fact that Georgetown beat Louisville (62-59 at Georgetown) in last year's lone meeting (and that they won here in 2010) should help in staying focused. The Cardinals have been playing very hard but we still haven't seen their best game recently - I feel that they're ready to elevate their level of play tonight. Pitino went on to note: "We are giving unbelievable effort to win. There have been four games where we should have gone down, but the effort is so great that we are winning, but we are not executing at the defensive end ... Now we have to get really good execution defensively to get ready for Georgetown and to win." Both teams are excellent defensively but I feel the Cardinals are capable of being even better than the Hoyas in that area. The Cards are holding teams to 36.3% from the field while the Hoyas are limiting opponents to 38.8%. Note that the percentage climbs all the way to 46.2% when Georgetown has played away from home. While the Hoyas are 16-10 on the road the past few seasons, the Cardinals are 45-6 at home. I expect them to "put it all together" and improve on those stats this evening, covering the relatively small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. I had success playing on/against the Broncos this season. I feel this will be a good spot to play ON them. The Broncos had a strong season and enter playing their best football. They were 3-1 SU/ATS their last four games. Two of the victories came by double-digits and the lone loss came by only three points, when listed as a +12 point underdog. With the Broncos currently getting a few points in this one, note that three of their five losses came by four points or less. Having never won a bowl game, the Broncos should be extremely motivated. Note that Western Michigan scored at least 38 points seven times this season. Its true that the Boilermakers hail from the stronger conference and also that they too should be motivated to win this game. They've been inconsistent all season though and enter today's game having gone just 1-4 ATS their last five. While I do think Purdue will "want" to win, focus may be an issue. The Boilermakers have had tree players arrested and another suspended since the end of the season. Additionally, receiver O.J. Ross and linebacker Dwayne Beckford won't play. While the Boilermakers had four double-digit losses on the season, like WMU, they also played a number of close games. Six of their games were decided by eight or fewer points, three of them getting decided by three or less. Speaking of "close games," this bowl has a recent history of very tight games. In fact, four straight in this bowl (dating back to when it was called the Motor City Bowl) have been decided by four or fewer points, three of those by a field goal or less. The 2010 game had a score of 34-32. The 2009 score was 21-17. In 2008, the final was 24-21. Purdue played in this bowl in 2007 and that game had a final of 51-48. The Boilermakers are just 5-9-1 ATS the last 15 times that they were laying points. During that stretch, they were 1-3 ATS when facing teams from the MAC. While the Boilermakers were 1-2 SU/ATS when the line ranged from -3 to +3, the Broncos were 2-1 SU/ATS in that situation. Given all the close games, I'll grab the points. However, I expect the Broncos to step up and win this one outright. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. With Chris Paul coming to town, there's certainly a lot of excitement surrounding the Clippers these days. For good reason, too. Paul is talented and highly competitive. He will indeed make this team better. That said, drastic improvement can't necessarily be expected immediately and all that hype has caused this line to get out of control. In my opinion, that's creating excellent value with the home underdog Warriors. Keep in mind that the Clippers are 17-65 SU on the road the past couple of seasons. During that stretch, the Warriors were 44-38 (47-35 ATS) at home. Not surprisingly, the Warriors were 3-1 SU/ATS at home against the Clippers during that stretch. Just as the Clippers have new hope, the Warriors are "quietly" also expecting to be improved. No, they didn't get a new superstar. However, they did get a new coach, one full of optimism and who should be able to help motivate them. Jackson may not get them to the playoffs this year but I do expect his team to be ready to play on Sunday night. Each new season brings new hope and this team would love nothing more than to start the season by handing the heavily hyped Clippers their first loss. While the Clippers new backcourt will get all the coverage from the media, keep in mind that the Warriors tandem of Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis can flat out score. Note that Curry is a bit banged-up but is currently listed as probable. The Clippers should be able to score and rebound - but defending the perimeter may well prove difficult for them here. The bottom line is that the hype surrounding Paul has driven this line too high. I expect Paul and co. to face a much tougher test than most will be expecting. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NEVADA. As you probably know, Southern Miss. closed out the season by blowing out undefeated Houston. That victory was certainly impressive. However, it has also caused the Golden Eagles to be viewed as an "elite" team which in turn has them laying a large number here. I feel it will prove to be too large. Yes, beating Houston was impressive, which is what will stand in everyone's memories. However, lets not forget that the Golden Eagles were 0-3 ATS their previous three games. They blew out a terrible Memphis team but not by enough to cover. Prior to that, they lost by three points vs. a bad (3-9) UAB team - and they were laying -24 for that one! Before that, they won by only one vs. UCF. Also, note that Houston was undefeated but hadn't really faced any quality opposition. Houston's toughest previous opponents were arguably UCLA and LA Tech (neither elite teams) and they won those games by only five combined points. So, Houston's previous undefeated record needs to be viewed with a grain of salt. Speaking of "easy schedules," prior to facing Houston, the Golden Eagles toughest opponents were LA Tech, Marshall, Virginia, SMU and Navy. While Marshall and LA Tech have both just covered in their bowl games, none of those teams could exactly be called elite. The Golden Eagles did blow out SMU and Navy - but those teams were only a combined 12-12 on the year. The games against Virginia, Marshall and LA Tech were ALL very close. They beat the Bulldogs by only two points. They lost outright vs. Marshall (by 6) and they beat Virginia by only six. Nevada is arguably better than any of those teams, yet the Golden Eagles are being asked to lay a touchdown, or more. I believe that's asking too much. I believe that is especially true, considering that Southern Miss doesn't even want to be here (the Golden Eagles thought they deserved better and wanted to be in the Liberty Bowl) and given that their coach (Larry Fedora) has already accepted a job at North Carolina. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack have a coach (Chris Ault) who isn't going anywhere and who has guided this program for a long time. Nevada can flat out score points. Indeed, the Wolfpack ranked fifth in the entire nation in total offense, averaging just more than 522 yards per game. Of course, that comes in handy when trying to cover a spread as an underdog. The Wolfpack were 2-1 ATS when getting points this season and are 5-3 ATS as underdogs the past few seasons. While the Wolfpack finished at "only" 7-5, they faced some truly elite teams, including Oregon and Boise State - both on the road. They did get blown out in both those games (although they still covered at Boise) but their other three losses ALL came by four points or less. So, unless facing a legit top tier opponent (Boise and Oregon are both much better than Southern Miss, at least in my opinion) the Wolfpack were competitive in every single game. Note that they enter the bowls off a confidence-building 56-3 destruction of Idaho. Both teams were involved in "close" games last bowl season. The Golden Eagles lost by three; the Wolfpack won by seven. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all those generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DALLAS. The significance of this game depends a lot on what happens in the Giants/Jets game. However, regardless of what happens in that game, I expect the Cowboys to take care of business. Both teams played well last week. The Cowboys went on the road and crushed Tampa Bay by a score of 31-15. The Eagles victory was arguably more impressive. They dismantled the Jets, a much better team than Tampa, by a score of 45-19. A win is a win though - and lets not forget that the Cowboys won on the road while the Eagles were getting to play at their own stadium. It should also be mentioned that the Cowboys' game was played on Saturday, while the Eagles game was on Sunday. So, the Cowboys are playing on a "normal" week while the Eagles are playing on a "short" week. That's a lot different from the earlier meeting when the Eagles were off a bye. You may have heard Jerry Jones on ESPN, admitting he's "scared" of the Eagles. Those comments, combined (and largely due to) with the fact that the Eagles pummeled the Cowboys (at Philadelphia) earlier in the season, will have many backing the visitors here. I expect them to motivate the Cowboys though. Perhaps equally importantly, with many wanting to back the Eagles, we're currently able to lay less than a FG with the Cowboys - which I feel is a genuine bargain. Indeed, while not quite a 100% certainty, a SU win will almost assuredly result in an ATS victory. Having recently lost to the Giants, a team they will face on the road next week, and having been embarrassed by the Eagles in the earlier meeting, the Cowboys desperately need to win this game, ideally in convincing fashion, regardless of playoff implications. Keep in mind that Romo, formerly known for his November proficiency, has eight TDs and 0 interceptions in December. With such a high O/U line, note that the Eagles are 0-3 ATS the last three times that they played a game where the O/U line was greater than 49. Conversely, the Cowboys are 3-0 ATS the last three times that they played a game where the line was greater than 49 (the Giants game had an O/U line of 49, so didn't quite get there) and they're 8-4 ATS their last dozen in that situation. That includes a 4-1 ATS mark here at Dallas. While the Eagles are off back to back victories, note that they're only 5-9 ATS the last 14 times that they were off consecutive victories. The Cowboys covered the spread (lost by 3 as +4 point favorites) the last time they hosted the Eagles. Prior to that, they'd beaten the Eagles three straight times here. Each of those victories came by at least four points and they came by an average of 16. Although their ATS record in those games wasn't that impressive, the Cowboys are 13-7 SU the last 20 times that they were favored at home by three or fewer points. I expect them revenge-minded Cowboys to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon, and this time, I look for them to cover the spread along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. While neither of these teams is "playoff-bound," there is no denying that Carolina has had a much better season. The Panthers were also the more impressive team last week. That said, I don't feel there's a large talent gap between these teams and I also don't feel that the Panthers are a team that should be laying this large a number. Keep in mind that the Panthers are only 2-5 SU here at Carolina and they've been outscored by a 25 to 20.9 margin here. While the Panthers are playing at home, the Bucs have the schedule in their favor. That's because they played last Saturday while the Panthers played on Sunday. That gives the Bucs a "normal" amount of rest while the Panthers are playing on a "short" week. I expect the Bucs to be extremely motivated. They're playing with 'revenge' from a 12/4 home loss to these same Panthers and they'd love to earn a victory to snap their losing skid before the season is over - knowing they play at Atlanta in next week's finale - that makes Saturday's game their best chance to get that victory. Note that the Bucs are 14-7-1 ATS on the road the past few seasons, 4-1 ATS as a road underdog in the +7.5 to +10 range. Including their recent loss vs. Atlanta, the Panthers are 0-3 ATS when playing a home game where the O/U line ranged from 45.5 to 49. On the other hand, including their "cover" at Green Bay, the Bucs are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times that they played a road game where the O/U line ranged from 45.5 to 49. I expect them to go all out and look for them to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. *10

Reason: I'm playing on TENNESSEE. I won with the Jaguars when (9/11) these teams faced each other earlier in the season. This afternoon, however, I expect the Titans to "get the cash." The Titans certainly hurt themselves by losing vs. winless Indianapolis last week. They're still mathematically alive for the playoffs though, although they now need plenty of help. I expect them to bounce back with their best effort. Even if they don't feel they have a realistic shot at the playoffs anymore, the Titans should still be motivated to bounce back with a victory. After all, they're looking to avenge the earlier loss AND they're playing their home finale. Plus, they'd like to get rid of the bad the taste from last week's embarrassing loss. Note that setback came on the road. While the Titans are still 4-3 at home, Also, note that the Titans are 2-0 SU/ATS when coming off a division loss, each victory coming by double-digits. Off the earlier loss to Jacksonville, they responded by beating Baltimore 26-13 in their next game. Then, after losing vs. Houston, they crushed the Colts (27-10) in their next game. Even with last week's loss, note that the Titans are also 4-1 SU/ATS when facing a team with a losing record. The Jaguars certainly qualify as a losing team. Off a 41-14 loss at Atlanta, they're now 4-10 SU on the season and an awful 1-6 SU (2-4-1 ATS) on the road. Given the fact that they're only averaging 11.6 points away from Jacksonville (and only 229.1 total yards) the Jags' poor record is not surprising. The Titans are a better team. They're playing their home finale. They're much more healthy AND I expect them to be more motivated. With the line having come down from its opener, all things considered, I feel they're providing us with very fair value. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DAYTON. The Flyers saw their 3-game winning streak come to an end last time out. They're now 16-4 SU their last 20 games played in the December, going 10-3 ATS in December lined games. Stepping down in class, I expect them to bounce back in convincing fashion. Note that the last time the Flyers were off a loss, listed as +5.5 point underdogs, they bounced back and crushed Alabama by double-digits. Dayton coach Archie Miller had this to say of the Flames: I know they've had a really tough schedule. They've had some time off (four days) to play against us. We have a quick turnaround, and it's probably good that we do." Easy for Miller to say that as the Flyers are 10-5 the past few seasons, when playing with one or less day's rest in between games, going 2-0 SU/ATS in that situation this season. The last time they played with one day's rest in between games, listed as +4.5 point underdogs, they beat Minnesota by 16 points! The Flames are off a 1-point win last time out. That was at home against a relatively weak Western Michigan squad though. They're winless on the road - you may recall we played against them when they played at Oregon State - they were underdogs of roughly the same size that they are tonight and lost that one by 42 points! Note that the Flames are also 2-9 ATS (2-11 SU) the last 13 times that they were off a game in which they allowed 60 or fewer points. While I won't absolutely rely on it (and still like the Flyers either way) note that forward Luke Fabrizius, who leads Dayton in 3-point shooting at 46.2 percent, could be available today. After missing the last two games, he practiced (on a limited basis) Thursday and was reported to have full mobility. While the line may seem high, keep in mind what the Flames did as underdogs of this size at Corvallis. More importantly, note that the Flyers are 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU) the last eight times that they were home favorites of greater than a dozen points, including 3-1 ATS as a home favorite in the -15.5 to -18 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in a big way here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on HAWAII. The Tigers are off to an impressive 7-1 start to the season, most recently earning a 76-69 victory over Florida A&M on Monday. They're a long way from home here though and facing the host team in tonight's "Diamond Head Classic" tournament. I expect them to stumble. While coach Tony Barbee, who earned his 100th career victory last time out, is calling this a "business trip," the distractions of Hawaii - and the long trip here - can take a toll. Note the late start time (1:30 ET) may also affect the Tigers negatively. Note that ALL seven of Auburn's victories have come at home and that six of those came against teams with a losing record. The Tigers lost their lone road game. They're an awful 2-16 SU their last 18 on the road, dating back to last January. Hawaii, now 5-4, has won three straight. The Warriors are 13-7 SU their last 20 "home" games, going 11-7 ATS their last 18 lined games here. The Warriors are 6-4 ATS the last 10 times that they were underdogs of four or fewer points. They won five of those games outright and lost the other by a single points. Looking to get this tournament off to a winning start, I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. *10

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. Obviously, these teams have had vastly different seasons. The Texans are on top of the division. The Colts are at the bottom. Not just of the division but of the entire league. That said, the Colts are starting to play much better recently. Coming off their first victory and playing their home finale, I expect the Colts to continue their recent improved play. The Colts were actually starting to play better, even prior to last week's win. In fact, they're actually 3-0 ATS their last three games. That includes a 7-point loss at New England. Note that last week's victory came here at Indianapolis - so there was no travel during this short week. Also, note that last week's victory came against a Tennessee team which really wanted a victory - not a team going through the motions. So, it was a "legit" win. A victory can do wonders for a team's confidence, having finally gotten the "monkey off its back." The victory over the Titans, who had beaten them earlier in the season, brought the Colts to an impressive 5-0 ATS their last five games, when playing with 'revenge' from an earlier loss. That's noteworthy, as Houston also defeated them earlier in the season. As you know, the Colts have been without Peyton Manning this season. Therefore, don't expect the to give the Texans any "sympathy." Houston has been playing without starting QB Matt Schaub, backup Matt Leinart and star receiver Andre Johnson. The injuries caught up with the Texans last week. Facing a Carolina team that was "playing out the string," the Texans lost 28-13. Prior to last week's setback, the Texans needed a furious 4th quarter rally to win by 1-point. Their previous two victories each came by a touchdown. So, this has not been a team which has been winning by wide margins. The Texans are now 2-5 ATS their last seven, when facing a team with a losing record during the second half of the season. During the same stretch, the Colts are 10-3 ATS when facing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. They're also 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS their last nine Thursday games. While those results came with Manning running the show, I expect the Colts to rise to the occasion and for them to earn AT LEAST another cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ALABAMA. Both these teams are off a disappointing losses. I expect the Crimson Tide to be the team which "bounces back." While this game is being labeled as a "neutral court" game, note that its being played at BJCC (Birmingham-Jefferson Convention Complex) Arena, which is in Birmingham, Alabama. So, the Tide will clearly have the fans behind them. As Alabama coach Anthony Grant noted: "We hope to get an excellent crowd out to support our team in Birmingham. I think it's a great opportunity for our fans that are in the Birmingham area to get a chance to see us live and in person." With this game being played at Birmingham, note that the Cowboys have just one win away from home this season. They're 0-4 SU when playing on a "neutral" court. Both teams are very capable; both play stingy defense. I feel Alabama is stronger though and believe the stats support that opinion. The Tide hit 45.2% of their shots, including 44.8% away from home. The Cowboys hit 42.1% of their shots but only 39.9% away from home. The Tide allow opposing teams to hit a mere 36.5% of their shots, 39.4% away from home. The Cowboys allow opposing teams to hit 38.7% of their shots. However, that number climbs to 41.6% on the road. While the Tide are outrebounding teams both home AND away, the Cowboys are being outrebounded by a 41.2 to 33.2 margin on the road. Despite failing to cover the spread in a few recent games, the Tide have been excellent in the favorite role the past few seasons. They're 33-9-1 SU and 25-16-1 ATS the past few seasons when laying points. On the other hand, during the same stretch, the Cowboys are a terrible 11-20-1 ATS (7-25 SU) when listed as underdogs. The Tide are 3-1 ATS in "neutral" court games, including 1-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. Playing in front of the Birmingham faithful and looking to avenge a loss at Oklahoma City last season, I expect them to rise to the occasion with a double-digit victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MARSHALL. Many are likely to back the favorite in this one. After all, the Golden Panthers had the superior record, are well-coached and are playing in their home state. I'm not buying it. The Thundering Herd are also well-coached and are playing their best football of the season right now. I don't feel that they're satisfied just to be here and I don't feel they'll be at all intimidated by the Panthers. Yes, FIU had eight wins compared to Marshall's six. However, keep in mind that the Thundering Herd played the likes of West Virginia, V-Tech, Southern Miss, Ohio, Tulsa, Houston and Louisville. ALL seven of those teams are playing in bowls. The Panthers, on the other hand, also faced Louisville but otherwise their only other two bowl opponents were LA-Lafayette and Arkansas State - both teams from within their own conference. FIU lost both those games, while also losing to Western Kentucky, the other team in their conference with a winning conference record. So, the difference in records needs to be viewed with a "grain of salt." Note that both teams beat Louisville but Marshall also beat Southern Miss, a victory which was arguably more impressive than anything the Panthers accomplished. FIU is indeed well-coached. However, with their coach (Mario Cristobal) being talked up as a possible hire at a "bigger" school (he reportedly spoke to Pittsburgh on Friday) the Panthers could be slightly distracted. While not spoken of so much, note that Marshall is also very well-coached. Yes, FIU enters on a 3-game winning streak. However, those three games came against the likes of Florida Atlantic, LA Monroe and Middle Tennessee State. Those three teams had a combined record of 7-29 overall and a combined 4-19 mark in conference play. So, even those games need to be taken with a grain of salt. Marshall enters off back to back victories of its own, beating East Carolina in its final game to become bowl eligible - the Pirates are arguably much better than any of the three teams that FIU beat to close out the season. While the Panthers were 3-5 ATS as favorites, the Herd were 5-3 ATS as underdogs. The Panthers are 8-12-1 ATS when laying points the past few seasons. Note that they're also an awful 2-15 SU the last 17 times that they played with two or more week's rest in between games. The Panthers saw five games decided by a TD or less. The Herd also saw five decided by a TD or less. In a game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WESTERN CAROLINA. The Catamounts have had success against the Braves. Two years ago, playing at Bradley and listed as underdogs of roughly the same size they are tonight, they won outright. Last year, they followed up that 75-67 victory by again knocking off the Braves, a 66-65 "nailbiter." Speaking of "nailbiters," these teams have both been involved in a number of "close" games recently. I often found that teams get in a "habit" of playing close games and I won't be surprised if this one also "comes down to the wire." That said, I feel this number is generously high. The Catamounts have had a bit of a layoff, for exams. Prior to that, they lost by two points vs. Kent State, covering as a +6-point underdog. Their previous game saw them lose by only five points, at Purdue. Naturally, that was an easy cover, as they were heavy underdogs. Prior to that, their previous two games (both victories) were each decided by four points. Meanwhile, the Braves are off a 5-point loss of their own. Prior to that, they won by a single point. Going back further reveals that all five of their SU victories have come by 11 or fewer points, two of them coming by just one. Overall, the average score of Bradley's games has been 66.5 to 64.3, in favor of the opposition. Likewise, Western Carolina has been outscored by a very narrow (and identical 2.2 per game) margin overall, 67.7 to 65.5. Looking more at the "close game" theme - note that these two coaches are very familiar with each other. In fact, Western Carolina's Larry Hunter, in his 32nd season as a college head coach, coached Bradley's Geno Ford for four years at Ohio University. Also, Ford served on his staff for three years as an assistant. Hunter and Ford, teacher and pupil, have faced each other twice - both meetings coming when Ford was at Kent State. Both games very close. The first was decided in overtime, an 89-84 victory for Western Carolina. Ford won the rematch - but only by two points, a 74-72 victory for Kent State the following season. (In both cases, Hunter's Catamounts covered the spread.) The Braves are not in one of their better roles. They're just 9-15 ATS the past few seasons, when laying points. That includes a 0-3 ATS mark as a home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. During the same stretch, the Catamounts have gone 17-13 ATS when getting points, including a profitable 3-1 ATS mark as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. I expect the Catamounts to improve on those stats here, as they take this game down to the wire with a solid shot at the outright upset. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. I cashed tickets in both these teams' games last week. I won with the Steelers/Browns 'under' the total and also won with the Cardinals against SF. (Part of an otherwise forgettable week in the NFL.) This week, however, I feel the value lies with the 49ers. While the Steelers may have Rothlisberger in the lineup, Big Ben is not 100% healthy. "Normal" quarterbacks would not be back so fast from a high-ankle sprain, an injury Rothlisberger said felt like he had a broken leg. He's proven to be as tough as any QB out there - however, no matter how tough he is, any lack of mobility could well hurt his play. Batch is a capable backup - but he's not Rothlisberger. He's also now 37 years old. Whether its a hobbled Rothlisberger or the 37-year old Batch, the Steelers will likely try to protect their QB with a fairly heavy dose of the ground game. However, that plays into the strength of the 49ers, as they're extremely tough against the run. Indeed, they haven't allowed an opposing player to rush for 100 yards since 2009, a span of 34 games. Perhaps even more impressive, the 49ers have yet to allow a rushing TD this entire season - the longest any team has done so since the 1970 merger. Even without linebacker Patrick Willis, who is likely out, this is an extremely stingy unit. Note that the Steelers D also takes a big hit with the suspension of linebacker James Harrison, who appealed his suspension but was denied. Obviously, this is a very big game for both teams. Perhaps even more important than the playoff implications, I believe the 49ers desperately want some respect. They've been among the top teams all season but many have continued to call them a fraud. I'm not currently ready to call for them to win a playoff game at Lambeau. However, I do fully believe they're capable of knocking off the Steelers at home, in a regular season game. A win here will get them the "respect" they feel that they deserve, while also giving them much needed confidence that they can beat "elite" teams, come playoff time. Note that this is the 49ers regular season home finale. They're 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS here on the season. Obviously, they want to keep that "unbeatable" feeling alive here. The Steelers have also been very good at home. However, they haven't been as tough on the road. They're 4-2 SU and but just 2-4 ATS away from Pittsburgh. Their recent road games have come against the likes of KC, Cincy, Arizona and Indianapolis. Their only two road games against teams currently with more than eight wins (Baltimore and Houston) both resulted in losses, each setback coming by at least a TD. The Steelers are 0-2 ATS the last two times they were off a divisional victory. On the other hand, the 49ers are 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were off a division loss. They're also 3-0 ATS their last three Monday night games, stats I expect them to improve upon here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHICAGO. Many won't want to touch the Bears this week. After all, Chicago is without its top QB and RB and is off a "heart-breaking" loss against Tebow and the Broncos. Meanwhile, Seattle just won big in front of the national TV audience. That's worked in our favor though, as we're getting the Bears with quite a reasonable line. I expect them to bounce back with a convincing victory. Yes, off back to back wins, Seattle has been surging of late. However, lets not forget that the Seahawks are off three straight home games. Without question, they're a much stronger team in the Pacific Northwest, where their fans give them a ton of support - and where they catch opposing teams in a tough travel spot. However, they're not nearly so good on the road. The Seahawks are averaging only 15.5 points away from home, winning just two of six. One of those wins came at lowly St. Louis and while the other came at New York, they were dominated statistically in that game, giving up 395 yards in the air alone. Going back further finds the Seahawks at a terrible 5-18 SU and 6-16-1 ATS on the road, the past few seasons. During that stretch, note that they're also an awful 4-11 ATS (3-12 SU) when off a divisional game, going a brutal 49-78-3 ATS their last 120 in that situation. Yes, off back-to-back-to-back losses, the Bears have struggled of late. However, only of those games came at home. The Bears are much better at home and are still 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) here at Chicago. They've outscored opponents by an average score of 27.3 to 17.3 here. With this being their home finale, I expect their absolute best effort. Both teams are mathematically still alive for the playoffs. However, the Bears have a better chance. More importantly, the Bears have a significant scheduling advantage here. I've already noted that they are much better at home (while Seattle is much worse on the road) but this week's schedule is also very favorable. That's because the Seahawks are playing on a short week and just had to travel from the West Coast. Now, this West Coast based club must play an early game in the Eastern Time zone. I did win with the Seahawks when they knocked the Saints out of the playoffs last year. However, I came right back and went against them here at Chicago the following week, making the Bears one of my biggest plays of the season. The Bears beat them by double-diigts. After last week's debacle, Coach Lovie Smith was quoted as saying: "Definitely one of the toughest ones I've had to deal with, we've had to deal with ... We don't like it, but it's how we respond and we will respond." I expect the Bears to do just that, responding with a convincing win and cover. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on ST LOUIS. As you know, the Rams have NOT had a good season. They're also off a poor showing on Monday night at Seattle, which many watched on National TV. That's caused this line to be very high. Given the play of the Bengals lately, I feel it will prove to be too high. The Bengals lost an absolute heartbreaker last week, blowing a very important game (which they were leading) and losing at the buzzer. Indeed, facing the Texans' third string QB, they gave up a TD with two seconds left to lose by a point. Despite that setback, the Bengals aren't out of the playoff race yet. That makes this a "must win" game for them, which has also gone into this line being "extra high." Must win games don't always win though (not by a longshot) and last week's setback figures to take a toll. Not just "mentally" either. The Bengals lost right guard Bobbie Williams for the season in that game. Yes, the Rams are dealing with some pretty serious injury issues. This is a team which has not quit though. Playing at home, with a chance to "do some spoiling," whether its Clemens (likely) or Bradford leading the troops, I fully expect them to respond with their very best effort. As " coach Steve Spagnuolo noted: "We're not going to use any excuses. We've got to find a way to win." Despite all their trouble, the Rams have managed to go 1-1 SU/ATS in games against AFC opponents. They're 6-4 ATS in non-conf. action the past few seasons. Even when the Bengals have won, they've rarely won big. Only one of their seven victories came by greater than 10 points and that came back in October. Their only two wins in November and December came by three and seven points. The Bengals are now a dismal 4-14 ATS when laying points, including a terrible 1-7 ATS as a favorite in the -3.5 to -9.5 range. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. These teams both finished with identical 8-4 records. LA-Lafayette had the superior ATS record and will play this game much closer to home. However, the Aztecs had the better "away" record and I believe that they're the stronger squad. The Aztecs were 4-1 SU on the road. They outscored opponents by a 24 to 20.8 margin in those games. On the other hand, LA-Lafayette was only 3-4 away from home, getting outscored by a 34.4 to 30.9 margin in those games. The Aztecs also enter as the "hotter" team. They won their last two games, a 31-14 blowout win at UNLV followed up by a 35-28 victory over Fresno State. Prior to that, they covered the spread vs. Boise State, scoring 35 in the process. On the other hand, the Ragin Cajuns enter off back to back losses. Each defeat came by more than a touchdown. San Diego State is 10-4 SU its last 14 non-conference games. During the same stretch, LA-Lafayette is 4-8 SU against non-conference opponents. Going back further finds the Cajuns at a dismal 14-52 their last 66 non-conf. games. Of course, SD State plays in the far more difficult conference and was tested far more often. The Aztecs faced the likes of Michigan, TCU, Boise and Air Force. Other than the loss to Arizona, a team which was inconsistent this year, the Cajuns only top tier opponent was Oklahoma State - that game came back in September and they allowed 61 points, losing by 27. In these "early" bowl games, its always important to consider which team is happier to be there. One could potentially argue that the game is bigger for the Rajin Cajuns as they're their making its first bowl appearance in 41 years. Still, the Aztecs aren't exactly used to playing bowl games every year; they played last year but that was their first bowl appearance since the 90s. So, I feel they're still going to be "fired up" to be here - particularly as last year's team didn't have to travel for its bowl game - a 35-14 blowout of Navy, which was played at San Diego. Meanwhile, the Cajuns may be feeling "happy just to be here." In the end, I look for the Aztecs' superior talent to be the difference. They've got a bigtime running back (Ronnie Hillman had 4 TDs and 178 yrds in the finale vs. Fresno!) and an experienced and very capable senior QB. Ryan Lindley has thrown for more than 12,000 yards (with 87 TDs) in his career with SD State. I expect the Aztecs to again score plenty of points and feel the Cajins will have trouble keeping up. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. Bradley has the (slightly) better record. However, I believe George Washington is the better team. Playing at home, I expect the Colonials to demonstrate that this evening. Yes, the Colonials enter on a losing streak and already have five losses. However, the five teams that beat them (Syracuse, Cal, K-State, VCU and Loyola MD) have a combined record of 38-7. Of those teams, VCU (6-3) has the worse record. So, the Colonials have certainly been facing some tough competition. In fact, the Colonials are the only Atlantic 10 Conference team to have played three true road games against programs from the six power conferences this season - California (Pac-12), Kansas State (Big XII) and Syracuse (Big East). Speaking of the A-10, the Colonials have one of the A-10's better backcourts led by Senior Tony Taylor, a preseason First Team All-Atlantic 10 selection, and junior Lasan Kromah. When matched up against teams currently with five or fewer victories, the Colonials have gone a perfect 4-0. Tonight's game will mark the Braves' fourth away from home in their last five games. That's significant as Bradley has not won away from Renaissance Coliseum in Peoria, going 0-3. That includes one "true road game" and a pair of neutral site losses in the Chicago Invitational Challenge. Going back further finds the Braves are an ugly 6-19 SU their last 25 road games. The Braves are off a win vs. Northeastern, their most "impressive" victory of the season. However, as noted, that wasn't on the road. Their only "true" road game resulted in a 17-point loss and their other four victories (all at home) all came against extremely weak opposition. In addition to playing at home, I like that the Colonials haven't had as long a gap since their last game. They last played on 12/10, a "healthy" amount of time in between games. However, the Braves last played on 12/6, which is a longer break than is ideal. While the Braves are averaging only a mere 50.3 points (38.2% shooting) away from home, the Colonials are holding opponents to 56.5 points and 36.3% shooting here at home. I expect homecourt to be the difference as the Colonials bounce back from the loss at Syracuse with a much needed win and cover. *10

**CORRECTION - ORIGINALLY SENT OUT SEATTLE IN THE AREA ABOVE BY ACCIDENT** Reason: I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. Often, I find myself backing the Seahawks when they play here in Seattle. I won with them when they beat the Eagles here in their last game. I won with them when they beat the Cardinals in their home opener. I came back with the very next week when they "covered the spread" (2 point loss) against the Falcons here. In fact, I even had them when they beat the Saints here in last year's playoff game. (Note that I also avoided playing on them in their two losses here this season, when they were beaten by Cincy and Washington.) In other words, as I've pointed out in my analysis in each of those games, I'm well aware that the Seahawks typically play much better football up here in the Pacific Northwest. That said, I don't feel that they're a team which is ready to be laying double-diigts. Therefore, for the first time all season, I'm going to go against them in a home game. The Rams have certainly had a disappointing season. Last week's loss at SF may have been a season low, as they were blanked 26-0. That result, combined with Seattle's big "TV" win over the Eagles are being factored into this line, making it higher than it would have been otherwise. Again, I feel it will prove to be too high. Seattle has had five home victories in the 2011 calendar year. Of those five, only last week's win vs. the Eagles came by greater than 10 points. Note that the win over the Eagles came at a cost, as the Seahawks lost left tackle Russell Okung for the season. Considering that the offensive line was already banged-up, that could well be costly. Rookie right tackles John Moffitt and James Carpenter were already out with knee injuries. Of course, the Rams are also dealing with injury issues of their own, most notably at the QB position. It currently remains unclear who will get the call. However, even if it turns out being Tom Brandstater, I expect the entire Rams team to come ready to play. Steve Spagnuolo noted this of Brandstater: "The good thing is we had him for a good month period there so the system is not new to him. Last week he was in there with the practice squad reps and kind of got the juices flowing again." Note that the O/U line is very low; currently 36.5 as I type this. With points expected to be at a premium, getting double-digits with the underdog becomes that much more appealing. Speaking of the low O/U line, the Seahawks are an ugly 8-18 ATS, including 1-3 SU/ATS the last four times that they played a home game where the O/U line ranged from 35.5 to 38 points. During that time, the Rams were 4-1 ATS the last five times that they played a road game when the O/U line ranged from 35.5 to 38 points. That includes a 1-0 SU/ATS mark this season. Playing with "revenge" and looking to avoid another embarrassing loss, I expect the Rams to rise to the occasion and earn at least the cover. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on DALLAS. Obviously, this is a huge game for both teams. One could argue that its a "bigger" game for the Giants. After all, if they lose this game, they'll have very little chance of winning the division. That will likely cause many to "take the points." However, I feel this game is every bit as big for the Cowboys. They know that if they don't win this one, the teams will both be tied with a 7-6 record. They also know that they have to play at New York to close out the season. So, if the Cowboys don't win this one, it means they'd likely be forced to win on the road. Armed with that knowledge, they know they better take care of business here. Both teams are off tough losses. The Giants fought hard (and covered) vs. the Packers but came up short. The Cowboys loss wasn't as "impressive," as they were beaten (in OT) by lowly Arizona. A loss is a loss though - and I feel that losing to Arizona will provide the Cowboys with some real fire here. That was a game they expected to win - while the Giants were large underdogs vs. the Packers Those backing the Giants will point to the fact that the Cowboys have struggled on Sunday nights recently, in December and also against the Giants, here at Dallas. In the end, I feel those will only serve to provide the Cowboys with further "hunger" though. Motivation aside, I feel the Cowboys are currently the better team. The Cowboys have a powerful running game - and the Giants are among the worst teams in the league against the run. Currently, the NY rushing defense is 23rd in the league, allowing 127 rushing yards per game. Of course, numerous injuries haven't helped matters. In addition to being unable to stop the run, the Giants can't run the ball either. In fact, even with improved numbers against GB last week, they still rank last in the league in rushing, averaging a mere 83.8 yards per game. Both offenses are expected to get a star wide receiver back, as it appears Miles Austin will return for Dallas while Mario Manningham may well be back for NY. Both are very capable players. However, in my opinion, Austin's return may well benefit the Cowboys more. I say that as the Giants had already been getting fairly solid receiver play while the same cannot necessarily be said of Dallas. While it won't get as much attention, note that Dallas is also expecting to get blocking fullback Tony Fiammetta back in the lineup. Some may argue that Manning is currently better than Romo. I won't even go that far though. I feel both are equally capable and I believe this year's numbers reflect that. Manning does have a few more yards (3705 to 3325) but Romo has a better passer rating and fewer interceptions. While some may point to the Cowboys' poor late season record, note the Giants are still just 2-10 ATS the last dozen times that they faced a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. In the end, I look for homefield advantage, combined with the fact that the Cowboys are better at running the ball and stopping the run to prove the difference. I expect Dallas to take a huge step towards locking up the division, improving to 10-4 ATS the last 14 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. *10 Annihilator

Reason: I'm playing on GONZAGA. I successfully played against the Bulldogs when they were facing a Big-Ten opponent in their last game. That was at Illinois though and the Illini are a perfect 9-0 on the season. They're facing another big name team from the Big-Ten conference this week. Back home in the Pacific Northwest, I expect a much different result. Note that the Bulldogs crushed Notre Dame by 20 points in their last game here. The Bulldogs did lose a couple of key players from last year's team. Leading scorer and rebounder Steven Gray is gone, as is point guard Dmitri Goodson. That said, the cupboard is far from bare. Indeed, this extremely well-coached club still brings back one of the best and most experienced frontcourts in the nation, led by Robert Sacre and Elias Harris. With freshman sensation Kevin Pangos leading the charge, they've also got a number of "sharpshooting" guards. (You may have watched Pangos hit NINE 3-pointers on ESPN, in Gonzaga's win over Washington State.) Like Gonzaga, the well-coached Spartans are always tough. However, this year's team suffered several key losses (like #1 scorer Lucas, #3 scorer Summers, to name a couple) and is still quite young. While less experienced, I also believe the Spartans are less talented than last season. The Spartans are off back to back blowout wins. However, those games both came against 1-AA teams and they were both at home - they didnt have a line for those games. Prior to that, they did beat Florida State. That was a solid victory, arguably their only win against a real "quality" opponent. However, it also came at home. While they were beaten by Duke and UNC in "neutral court" games, the Spartans have only played one true road game - and that was against Eastern Michigan. Obviously, this is a MUCH tougher venue. Indeed, the Bulldogs are 120-9 here under coach Few. That includes a perfect 14-0 record when the O/U line ranged from 135 to 139.5. Note that the Spartans are an ugly 3-11 ATS in lined games the past few seasons, when off a game in which they scored 80 or more. During the same stretch, the Bulldogs were 8-4 ATS in lined games, when off a game in which they allowed 80 or more. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion this evening. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Wildcats are slight favorites here. However, I look for the 49'ers to score the "upset." The Wildcats are off to a strong start, their best since the 2008-09 season. They started off 8-1 that year. However, they're off a close loss last time out and now must go on the road and face a "cross county rival." Off that close loss and with an 8-game exam break to follow, I won't be surprised if they're a little flat here. While not being asked to cover much here, it still worth noting that Davidson has been a horrible favorite in recent seasons. In fact, the Wildcats are a money-burning 12-29 ATS the last 41 times they were laying points. That includes an 0-2 SU/ATS mark, when listed as a road favorite of three or fewer points. On the other hand, the 49ers are on a 3-game winning streak and they're already 2-0 SU/ATS as underdogs this season. Getting +3 points, they won by four at Wright State. Getting +5.5 points, they won by a dozen at East Carolina. During its current three-game win streak, Charlotte has held each of its opponents under 40% shooting. Note the Charlotte's lone home loss came by a single point. While Davidson coach Bob McKillop has had plenty of success overall, he's just 7-17 against the 49ers. Also, note that Davidson has NEVER won here at Halton Arena. Charlotte is a perfect 6-0 SU in six all-time meetings here. Even 32 points from Stepen Curry wasn't enough for the Wildcats to win their last visit here. Davidson does return nearly all of its weapons from a team that beat Charlotte (at Davidson) last season. However, the 49ers also brought back four starters (their top 4 scorers) and they'll be looking for some payback for last season's defeat. While only 10-20 last season, the 49ers are better this season and they were arguably better than last season's record indicated - they had four OT losses and eight losses by six or less. Keep in mind that they beat a Top 10 team last season, while also being the only A-10 team to beat Xavier during the regular season. On a roll and playing with confidence, I expect the revenge-minded 49ers to avenge last season's loss, continuing their homecourt dominance in the series. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on ARMY. As you're probably aware, Navy has dominated this series in recent years. In fact, the Midshipmen have won nine straight meetings with Army by double-digits. The teams are far more evenly matched this year though and I'm expecting a much closer affair. Admittedly, the Black Knights didn't have a great season. They're off three straight losses and finished just 3-8 SU and 5-6 ATS. This year, however, Navy wasn't much better. The Midshipmen also finished with sub-500 record. They were 4-7 SU, matching Army's 5-6 ATS mark. While Navy beat up on Troy, the Trojans had a down year this season. A more impressive victory came against SMU. However, it should be noted that the Midshipmen won that one by only seven. That was one of SIX games that they played which was decided by seven or fewer points. Their other two victories came against Western Kentucky and Delaware, not exactly national powerhouses. The Knights also played some close games. Three of their games were decided by seven or less. While their most recent victory (55-0 vs. Fordham) came against a lesser team, the Knights did also knock off Tulane and Northwestern. Navy has had trouble against "losing" teams. Even including last year's cover against Army, the Midshipmen are still only 3-8 ATS their last 11 against teams with a losing record. On the other hand, during the same stretch, Army was 5-2 SU/ATS when matched up against a team with a losing record. Needless to say, both teams will really want this game. However, given their losing streak in the series and knowing that this may finally be their chance, I expect Army to be a little more "hungry." In the end, in a game that could easily come down to the wire, I expect that to lead to at least a cover for the Knights. *10

Reason: I'm playing on IDAHO. While the Beavers have gotten off to a great start, I believe this line will prove to be too high. Both teams have shown a tendency of playing fairly "close" games thus far. The Vandals are off a 2-point home loss vs. Washington State last time out. They're 4-4 SU on the season but a closer look reveals that ALL four of those losses came by eight or fewer points. In fact, the four losses came by an average of only 5.5 points. Note that in their last road game, the Vandals won by 20 points. Including that blowout win, they're a perfect 3-0 ATS in their lined road games. The Beavers are off back to back "blowout" wins. Those results have worked in our favor though, as they've helped to drive this line up higher. Their previous three games were all decided by 10 or less though, including a home win over Hofstra. The Vandals are 3-0 SU/ATS on Friday nights the past couple of seasons. Going back further finds them at 11-4 ATS their last 15 lined Friday games. More importantly, they're also 15-7-3 ATS the last 25 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +12.5 to +15 range. I look for them to improve on those stats tonight, as the final score proves closer than most will be expecting. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. The Tigers enter tonight's game with a 2-game winning streak and boasting a national ranking. I expect that to change at the BankUnited Center tonight though. The Tigers have faced some tough opponents already, as they've faced the likes of Michigan, Tennessee and Georgetown. However, all of those were "neutral court" games and the Tigers were just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. This will be their first "true road game" of the season and it comes at a very difficult venue. The Hurricanes are 5-0 here at the BankUnited Center this season. Note that they were 13-4 at home in 2010-11. Going back further finds that Miami has an 86-31 record at home since joining the ACC for the 2004-05 season and the Canes are 100-44 overall in this arena. Throw in the fact that they're a perfect 27-0 the last 27 times that they hosted a non-conference opponent and this is indeed a very challenging venue. In fact, Miami's last non-conference home loss came against Ohio State, in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, way back on Dec, 2, 2008. While the Tigers are potent offensively, the Hurricanes are stingy defensively, particularly here at home. While scoring more than 70 themselves, they're allowing just 60.4 points per game here, limiting opponents to 38.7% shooting. Miami's tough defense caused the O/U line to come out at 139.5 (although its likely to go up) which is worth noting as the Tigers are an ugly 7-17-1 ATS the last 25 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 130s, including 1-4 ATS their last five road games with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. While those O/U stats may not prove relevant, if the line climbs into the 140s, it IS relevant that the Tigers are only 7-10 ATS their last 17 against teams which allow 64 or less points per game and just 3-13 ATS their past 16 lined games, after scoring 80 or more in their previous game. Off a win last time out and looking to avenge a loss from last season, I expect the Hurricanes to keep their perfect home record in tact, as well as their streak against non-conf. opponents here. *9

Reason: I'm playing on DETROIT. The Titans are off to a slow 3-6 start and they've got a poor 1-5 ATS mark. I believe they're better than those stats suggest though. That said, with the early results factored into the line, I feel the Titans are providing us with excellent value. True, the Titans have a poor record. However, they've been far more competitive than the record indicates. They lost by five vs. a good Cleveland State team last time out. (The Vikings are 8-1 thus far.) Prior to that, they lost by only three vs. Youngstown State, another team off to a solid (5-2) start. Throw in a pair of six-point losses, one of them on a neutral court and the other at Notre Dame, and this team could easily have a much better record than it does. In fact, the Titans are both outscoring and outrebounding their opponents. One could argue that St. John's has been less impressive. The Red Storm did cover vs. Kentucky last time out - but they still lost by 22, covering by a basket. Prior to that, they lost by 14 vs. Northeastern, a game they were favored by nine points for. The "best" team that they have beaten is William and Mary and that came at home. While Detroit is outrebounding opponents by a 37.4 to 35 margin (39.2 to 31.7 at home) St. John's is being outrebounded by a 38.7 to 34.6 margin. While St John's obviously hails from the better conference, the Horizon League is no joke either. Also, keep in mind that this is a Detroit team which is 24-11 SU its last 35 home games. These teams haven't faced each other since 1998. The Titans scored an "upset" in that one, earning a narrow 66-64 win and cover. I expect history to repeat itself and the Titans, 3-0 ATS their last three against the Big East, to "get the cash" once again. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. When the schedule was released, this game figured to potentially have playoff implications. That's obviously not the case. At 9-2, the 49ers are all but mathematically the division champs; they'll lock up the division if they can win here. On the other hand, the Rams are just 2-9. They've been out of the playoff race for ages. I respect the 49ers and Harbaugh's clearly done a great job in turning things around. That said, I successfully played against them in their last game (they lost at Baltimore) and I don't feel that they're the type of team that's built to be laying this many points. Note that five of the 49ers last six games have been decided by 10 points or less, the other was decided by 16. As for the Rams, its true that they've been hit hard by injuries. Even this week, AJ Feeley has had to take the snaps in practice, as they were trying to give banged-up Sam Bradford some extra time. Getting this many points, I'm comfortable with either Bradford or Feeley. Feeley was reportedly sharp in practice and the veteran would love a chance to get a shot. Bradford's been coming around. Last week, he threw for more than 200 yards with one TD and no INTS. He also had a great game against the 49ers last season. In fact, at the time, he broke the NFL's single season record for completions by a rookie, leading the Rams to a 25-17 victory and leading to the firing of Mike Singletary. That 25-17 victory was at St. Louis. The Rams also played the 49ers tough here at San Francisco though. They lost 23-20 in OT. I feel this Rams team will show up ready to play. Despite the record, they haven't quit and their coach and players seem to be remaining optimistic. They don't want the 49ers clinching at their expense and would love to knock them off here. While their road record is admittedly pretty poor, the Rams did win their last road game (previous road game was a 6-pt loss) and they're allowing a respectable 23.4 points on the road overall. Keep in mind that the Rams beat the Saints outright and held the Packers to only 24 points, at Lambeau. So, they've been able to hold their own against the other two best in the NFC. The Rams are 4-1 ATS the last five times they played a road game where the O/U line ranged from 35 to 38 and I look for them to give the 49ers a much tougher test than most will be expecting. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. There isn't much difference between the records of these two teams. The Panthers are 3-8. The Bucs are 4-7. One could also call the Bucs the more "disappointing" team, as their expectations were significantly higher than Carolina's expectations. I do feel that the Bucs are still the superior team though. I also feel that getting them at this line, at home, is providing us with excellent line value. The Bucs are taking a big step down in class, as this represents their "easiest" game (on paper) in many weeks. I expect them to make the most of their opportunity. While neither team will be making the playoffs, both should want this game. Coming off a win, the Panthers would like to make two in a row. Keep in mind that their victory came against the winless Colts (barely) and that they haven't won two in a row in two seasons. In addition to the win over Indy, it should also be noted that the Panthers other two victories both came at home and that they came against Jacksonville, a team which just fired its coach and Washington, another of this season's worst teams. The Bucs should be every bit as "hungry" as the Panthers, if not more. They're taking a lot of heat in the media for being a bust. However, in fairness, lets take a look at their recent schedule. Their last two games were on the road, they came at Tennessee and Green Bay. They were competitive in each, leading at Tennessee in the 4th while "only" losing by nine at Green Bay. Prior to that, they had a 5-game stretch which featured road games at San Francisco and New Orleans. Home games against Houston and New Orleans and a game "across the pond" in London England, against the Bears. In other words, they've been flying all over the map while facing tough team after tough team. Note that they did win one of those games against the Saints, arguably one of the best teams in football. Prior to grueling stretch, when facing the type of "easier" teams that Carolina has been up against, the Bucs went 3-0, knocking off the likes of the Colts and Vikings. They also beat a good Atlanta team while nearly winning vs. Detroit. So, while the Panthers victories have come against "cupcakes," the Bucs have actually beaten some good teams like the Saints and Falcons. The Bucs beat the Panthers by scores of 20-7 and 31-16 last season. While this is their first time in that situation this season, they're 5-2-1 ATS the last eight times that they faced a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. The Bucs are 7-2 "SU" the last nine times that they were "laying points." I expect them to improve on those numbers on Sunday afternoon, covering the small number along the way. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Spartans have the higher ranking and are certainly tough. However, I feel that the Badgers are favored for good reason. The Badgers did lose vs. the Sparatans in the "regular" season. However, that was at Michigan State and the Badgers weren't as tough when playing on an opponent's home field. Note that I successfully played against the Badgers on the road when they lost at Ohio State AND when they failed to cover at Illinois. However, again those were both on the opposing team's home field. In this case, the game will be played on a "neutral" field. Therefore, its worth noting that the Badgers are 12-7 SU/ATS their last 19 "neutral" field games, including 3-0 ATS their last four. On the other hand, the Spartans are 3-10 SU/ATS their last 13 "neutral" field games, going 0-3 ATS their last three. While the Spartans have won just two of their last 10 December games, the Badgers have won six of their last eight December games. Both teams play great defense. The Badgers allow 15.2 points per game and the Spartans allow 15.4. The Badgers have the edge on the other side of the ball though. Michigan State averages a respectable 30.2 points per game. However, that number dips all the way down to 18.8 away from home. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is averaging a whopping 44. 8 points per game, 35.8 on the road. The Spartans averaged 29 points per game against conference opponents, the Badgers averaged 43. The Badgers average 477.1 yards of offense, 430.4 on the road. The Spartans average 383.7 yards of offense, just 337.8 on the road. The Badgers are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were neutral field favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. The Spartans are 0-4 SU/ATS their last four, as neutral field underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. Its payback time. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on CLEMSON. I successfully played against Clemson last week. The Tigers already had the division wrapped up though and therefore, I expected the Gamecocks to be the more hungry squad. That turned out to be the case, as South Carolina smashed the Tigers by a score of 34-13. Don't underestimate this team based on the results of the last two weeks. The Tigers were as high as #5 in the national rankings at one point and they still finished with nine wins. At one point they beat three straight ranked opponents, one of those came at Blacksburg, a 23-3 victory against these same Hokies. While I'm aware that the Hokies have been tough in the "revenge" role. However, I feel factor is often over-rated and in this case, I feel its been another factor, along with Clemson's last two losses, which are helping to provide us with excellent line value. Admittedly, the V-Tech defensive stats are far better than the Clemson ones. The Tigers have the type of offense that can help make up for that though. They averaged 33.2 points and 440 yards per game - both better stats than V-Tech, which also has a strong attack. Also, as the Hokies know, the Tigers ARE fully capable of playing tough defense. Clemson held Virginia Tech to a season low 258 yards and without a touchdown; The first time that has happened at home for the Hokies since 1995. The Hokies did blow out Virginia last time out. However, three of their previous six games, including two of their previous three, were decided by four points or less. So, they've been involved in plenty of recent close games. Clemson is 48-32-2 ATS the last 82 times it was getting points. That includes an outstanding 25-12-1 ATS when the Tigers were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range, including 5-1 ATS their last six in that role. The Tigers are also 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were off back to back losses. I'm expecting this one to go down to the wire and am grabbing the generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on HAWAII. The Cougars have the better record and may indeed be the better team. However, that doesn't always ensure a cover. Far from it. BYU is playing at Hawaii, often difficult to begin with. However, that task could be extra difficult, as the Cougars are likely to be more susceptible to the "island distractions," due to having already agreed to play in the Armed Forces Bowl. While the Cougars are far from home and have little to play for, the Warriors have much on the line. If they win here, they get to play in the Hawaii Bowl. If they lose, they don't play in a bowl and have to watch two other teams play here in their stadium. Yes, they lost their starting QB a few weeks back. However, this is a team which has been able to get strong QB play over the years, from just about anyone they throw in there. The Warriors showed that in their last game, earning a double-digit win, scoring 35 points in the process. While BYU averages 24 points per game on the road, Hawaii averages 37 here at home. With the pointspread up over a touchdown, it should be noted that the Warriors have been involved in numerous close games. They won by 12 last week. However, three of their previous six games were decided by a field goal or less. Each of their last seven games has been decided by a dozen points or less. It should also be noted that the Cougars are only 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. The Warriors lost by just three points at BYU the last time (2002) that they faced the Cougars and are 6-3 ATS the last nine meetings in the series. I'll take the points but I expect the Warriors to want this game more and for that to lead to an outright uspet. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ILLINOIS. Gonzaga checks in with an undefeated record a Top 20 national ranking. Illinois may not have the Top 20 ranking yet, however, the Illini are also undefeated. Playing on their home floor, I expect the Illini to hand the Bulldogs their first loss of the season. The Illini are almost always tough defensively and that appears to be the case again this year. Last time out, they held Maryland to a 5-for-19 performance from 3-point range, en route to limiting the Terps to just 61 points, at Maryland. For the season, the Illini are holding opponents to just 35.8% shooting, including a mere 32.6% here at home. Note that Gonzaga is a poor 52-65 ATS over the years, when matched up against a team that allows less than 64 points per game. In last year's meeting, the Illini limited the Bulldogs to just 40.7% shooting including a mere 3-of-16 (18.7%) from beyond the arc. The Illini won that one by a score of 73-61. While Gonzaga is certainly a good team, I expect another victory here, with the Illini covering the small number along the way. *10 Personal Fav

Reason: I'm playing on OHIO. These teams are both certainly deserving of being here. Both teams are talented and both played their best down the stretch. The Huskies enter on a 7-game winning streak. The Bobcats aren't far behind them though, as they've won five straight. While I successfully played against the Bobcats in each of their last two games, I feel they're the team which is providing us with the value here. Yes, I played against Ohio each of its last two games. However, each time I said that I respected that Bobcats, only that I felt they were laying too many points. They still won each game outright, most recently a 7-point win over a fairly solid and determined Miami Ohio squad. This week, however, its the Bobcats which are getting points. In fact, due in part to failing to cover the last two weeks, they're even getting more than a field goal. Given all the recent close games by these teams, that could easily prove significant. Last week, among the reasons, I played against the Bobcats was that they'd already clinched a spot in this game. They still won. But "only" by seven. Including that victory, they've now seen seven of nine games decided by eight points or less. Four of those were decided by four or less, two by a single point. The Huskies are no stranger to close games either. Laying -17.5, they won by only six last time out. In their previous game, they were laying -18 and won by just three points. In fact, three of their last five games have been decided by a field goal or less, four of them decided by six or fewer. Not surprisingly, the Huskies were only 4-6 ATS as favorites this season. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 8-4 ATS the last dozen times they were listed as underdogs. There is no denying that the Huskies have a bigtime offense, as they average nearly 40 points per game. The Bobcats are no slouches offensively either though. They've got the third best offense in the conference and rank 18th in the country. Its on the other side of the ball that the Bobcats figure to have the advantage. They allow just 21.7 points and 352.1 yards per game. The Bobcats allowed a few more yards (385) on the road, but still less than 400. On the other hand, the Huskies allowed 32 points per game, including 41 on the road. When playing away from home, they allowed a whopping 535.5 yards per game. The Bobcats, who have a veteran coach in Frank Solich, have had some extra preparation time. They last played on 11/22. The Huskies, who have a 1st year head coach, haven't had as much time, as they last played on 11/25. With the Bobcats at 6-1 ATS the last seven times they faced a team with a winning record, I'm grabbing the points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SEATTLE. While the Eagles chances may be a little better, both teams know that it will take a miracle to get them into the playoffs. While Seattle knows it won't make it - I feel the Philadelphia players probably feel much the same way. After all, they're three games behind the Cowboys, with only five games remaining. As if that wasn't bad enough, they're also two behind the Giants. Overtaking one team might be possible but passing them both would be very tough. Knowing that their chances are "extremely slim" and given the overall situation, I feel the Eagles "may not be at their best" here. Keep in mind that they got blown out by double-digits last week and are now playing a road game, on a short-week, on the other side of the country. Of course, it should also be mentioned that they're again expected to be without Michael Vick. As mentioned, the Seahawks know they won't be making the playoffs. Still, this is a rare home game on ESPN for them - and their passionate home fans will surely be fired up. Unlike the Eagles, the Seahawks did not have to travel in between games, as they were here last week. Again, I feel this factor carries added significance due to the short week. While they're "only" 3-2 ATS here this season, the Seahawks are an excellent 14-8 ATS their past 22 here. In fact, that includes a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS mark when they played a home game and the O/U line ranged from 42.5 to 45. The Eagles are just 3-6 SU/ATS as favorites this season. With both teams having been involved in a number of close games this season, I'll gladly take the points. That said, I'm expect the Seahawks to prove more motivated and look for them to score the outright upset. *10 best bet

Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA. This is a very big game for the Mountaineers. West Virginia is already bowl eligible. However, the Mountaineers can clinch a 3-way tie for the Big East Title. To do that, they'd need to win this game AND have Cincy beat UConn on Saturday. Given that the Huskies generally aren't as good on the road and that the Bearcats are currently a -9 point (-350 on ML) favorite, the Mountaineers probably feel that their chances of earning that 3-way tie are pretty good. (If Cincy loses, then Louisville wins.) If the 3-way tie happened, the team with the highest ranking in the final BCS standings would get the BCS berth, possibly the Orange Bowl on January 4th. While that certainly makes this a very big game, it also gives them a much bigger game to "look ahead" to. Despite West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen insisting otherwise, that's a very real possibility. Whether or not that's the case, I expect the Mountaineers to run into a tougher opponent than they're expecting. While this is a huge game for the Mountaineers, its a "must win" game for the Bulls, if they want to become bowl eligible. It also offers them one last chance to redeem themselves for what has otherwise admittedly been a very disappointing finish to the season. Keep in mind that the Bulls were expected to contend for the title themselves. Also, lets remember that they haven't missed a bowl game since 2004. The Bulls, who are hoping to have QB Daniels back, haven't been winning but they're still fighting hard. In fact, their last five losses have been by a combined total of 25 points. Coach Holtz had this to say about the losses: "I take it personal. We've come close, but we haven't done a good enough job." While I successfully played against the Bulls the last time (9/29) that they played on a Thursday night. That was on the road though (at Pittsburgh) and they weren't in "desperation mode." I expect Holtz to have his team better prepared this time and fired up to play the big game at home. The Bulls lost at West Virginia last season but they beat the Mountaineers each of the last two games here at South Florida. I expect them to step up and do it again on Thursday. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NC STATE. I won with Indiana last game, so I definitely respect the Hoosiers. That said, that was a home game vs. Butler, an "instate rival." I felt that the Hoosiers were sick of playing second fiddle to the Bulldogs in their own state and that they'd make the most of the opportunity to kick Butler while it was down. They did just that, winning by 16. Off to a perfect start, each win coming by double-digits and off that win over a "rival," I won't be surprised if the Hoosiers suffer a bit of an "emotional letdown" here. That will spell trouble as the Wolfpack are perfect at home, outscoring opponents by a 79.2 to 65.2 margin here. They've hit better than 49% of their shots here thus far. The Wolfpack did lose vs. Vanderbilt but responded by beating Texas 77-74 in their next game. Having also beaten Princeton by two points, they've been involved in some close games - unlike the Hoosiers - and that "close game experience" may serve them well here. Note that they followed up the win over the Longhorns by beating Elon by double-digits, their third win by at least nine points. So, they've won some close games but, like the Hoosiers, the Wolfpack have also shown they can win in "blowout fashion." The Hoosiers have only played one road game this season. While they won that one, it came at Evansville. So, it wasn't nearly as tough a venue as this one. While this is an improved team, keep in mind that the Hoosiers have been horrible on the road in recent seasons. Its also worth noting that the Hoosiers are only 3-7 the last 10 times that they faced at team which averages better than 77 points per game. The Wolfpack are only 1-5 in ACC-Big Ten Challenges, when playing on the road. However, they're 4-1 when playing them at home. With a win also getting them a cover, I expect the Wolfpack to remain perfect when listed as the home team. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. I rode the Saints a number of times when they won the Superbowl two years ago. Not only did I go 2-0 on my Superbowl picks (Saints and Under) but I also won with them in the playoffs, leading up to the Superbowl. That wasn't all though. I'd identified them as an elite team early on that season and I played on them in a pair of big games, each of which I called "statement" games. One of those games was a Monday Nighter against the Patriots, which happened to be right at the end of November, just like this one. The Saints didn't just beat the Patriots, they crushed them by a score of 38-17. However, prior to that, I identified their game against the Giants as a "statement" game and played on the Saints. At the time, the Giants were riding high with an undefeated record. The Saints destroyed them by a score of 48-27. Not bad considering that the Giants had the #1 ranked defense at the time. Drew Brees, who hit 15 straight completions at at one point in that game, noted afterwards: "We wanted to really dictate the tempo of the game the whole way through. Seven different guys scored touchdowns. That's big. That's the type of rhythm that, when you get in, you feel like you can call anything and it's going to work." Brees would finish 23 of 30, throwing for 369 yards and four TDs. Eli Manning, on the other hand, finished 14 of 31 for 178 yards. Manning who said: "it's not easy playing there," is currently playing behind a revamped and banged-up offensive line. He's already been sacked 19 times. That's three more than all of last season. As they were prior to that 2009 game, the Saints are beginning to really play well. They're 2-0 SU/ATS their last two games. They won their last home game by double-digits. In fact, they're 4-0 SU/ATS here at home, winning by an average margin of 39.7 to 17.2. On the other hand, the Giants are off back to back losses. The Saints were coming off a bye the last time that they beat up on the Giants. Including that blowout, they're 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were off a bye. In this case, due in part to the offseason rule changes but also as he believes in them, Payton gave his players eight days off during the bye week. This team isn't about to fall apart during the time off though - and I expect them to come back refreshed and ready to go. Brees had this to say: "We have enough of a veteran team now, and leadership and character, and guys just knowing the right thing to do to take care of themselves and make sure they're prepared and ready when we come back." As for Brees, he's 3-0 in his career against the Giants. In those games, he's completed better than 65% of his passes, throwing for seven touchdowns without an interception. His teams won those games by an average of 22 points. Payton is a smart guy and he's well aware that his Superbowl winning team won big in Week 12 (just like this) on a late November Monday night (against the Pats) and that could well have been looked at as a "springboard" for that team, as it really gave them the confidence they can beat anyone. Having already come up short against the Packers (not my much) on "primetime" to begin this season, I fully expect to want to be very motivated to repeat that winning formula. With all due respect to the Giants, this is an extremely powerful Saints team, one which is nearly unbeatable here. With Brees again getting the better of Manning, I expect another double-digit victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on VANDERBILT. These are both very good teams. Xavier is off to a 4-0 start while Vanderbilt has dropped a game, checking in at 5-1. Its true that the Musketeers have had plenty of success against SEC teams in the recent past. In fact, they beat Georgia in their very last game. However, the Commodores are a lot better than Georgia and this will be Xavier's first true road game of the young season. Note that the Commodores have won an impressive 38 of 41 home games against non-conference opponents, dating back to 2007. Xavier forward Andre Walker, a Vanderbilt transfer, knows his old team is tough, even without its starting center. He was quoted as saying: "They're a very tough-minded, defensive-oriented team. They like to push the ball in transition and have a very high-powered offense." Also, note that Xavier has lost its last four road games against ranked opponents. The Commodores weren't happy with their effort last time out. I look for them to come out "on a mission," defending their homecourt and covering the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. The Steelers almost always get a lot of love from the betting public. Throw in the fact that nearly everyone just witnessed the Chiefs get destroyed (by the Pats) on National TV AND that the Chiefs are without their starting QB AND we're getting an extremely generous line with the home underdog. Most everyone has written off the Chiefs, who check in at 4-6. And, its true that the odds are certainly now against them. That said, they're still tied with the Chargers and are still within a game of the Broncos and within two of the Raiders. The Chargers and Broncos play each other, so one of those teams will lose. Meanwhile, the Raiders have a fairly tough challenge as they're up against a solid Chicago team. (Although that game is at Oakland and the Bears are withouth their starting QB.) While the Chiefs do have some tough games remaining, they already beat the Raiders at Oakland and get a chance to face them at KC on Christmas Eve. In other words, if the Chiefs could somehow find a way to beat the Steelers, they'd still be very much alive. Obviously, beating the Steelers will be easier said than done. That said, the very fact that they're still mathematically alive for the AFC West title should give them plenty of motivation. Also, the last thing they want is to get embarrassed on National TV in consecutive weeks. Last week, Palko was making his first start and the Chiefs were playing on the road. Although KC acquired Orton, Palko is expected to get the call again. He's now got a start under his belt and he's now playing at home. He knows this is likely his last chance for a while and I expect him an improved effort. (I'd also be comfortable if Orton was the starter.) The Steelers are off a bye, which did allow them to get healthier. Even with that time off, they're still banged-up though. Every game is indeed important to the Steelers right now, although arguably not as "critical" as this one is to the Chiefs. Of course, they also want to look good on National TV. Still, this is a game "sandwiched" in between games vs. division rival Cincinnati and before the Bengals, the Steelers had faced Baltimore and New England. In other words, it may be easy to look past "lowly" KC, a non-divisional opponent which has a losing record. The Steelers were an 11-point favorite when they traveled here in 2009. That game came down to the wire. In fact, the Chiefs won by three points, 27-24. Including that result, the Steelers are a money-burning 10-21 ATS the last 31 times that they were favored by double-digits, going just 3-6 ATS their last nine in that role. I expect them to have their hands full once again, as the Chiefs, 11-3 ATS their last 14 as double-digit underdogs, bounce back and come ready to play. *10 Main Event

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANA. I've won with Butler many times the past few years and have ridden the Bulldogs heavily and successfully during tournament action. That said, I've also been successful at picking my spots to go against the Bulldogs. I feel this will be a good spot to do so. While the competition has admittedly been a little weak, the Hoosiers are a perfect 5-0. All five wins have come by 20+ points. Butler, on the other hand, has already lost twice. Granted, one of those losses came against Louisville, so that one's "excusable." Still, the Bulldogs didn't look good. They were a +4 point underdog and lost by 16. Their other loss came by "only" three points. However, that was against Evansville, a team which Indiana hammered by 21 points. Overall, the Bulldogs are 0-3 ATS in their lined games. In addition to Evansville, the Hoosiers and Bulldogs have already had three other common opponents. This is rare this early in the season and is able to give us some insight about the current level of each program. Both teams faced and defeated Garnder Webb. However, while Butler won by only two points, Indiana won by 24! Indiana beat Savannah State by 29 and Tennessee Chatanooga by 25. Butler beat those teams by 15 and 11 points, respectively. As great as story as the Bulldogs have been in recent seasons, keep in mind that they lost their best player, Gordon Hayward, to the NBA draft following their first NCAA Championship game appearance. Then, they lost their two best players in Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard from last year's team to graduation and the NBA draft. Butler does have some solid talent still and the well-coached Bulldogs always play hard. The Hoosiers are also playing hard though and have arguably more talent. The Hoosiers have gone through a down period in recent years but are coming out of it now. They're sick of taking a back seat to Butler in the state of Indiana and I look for them to keep on rolling with another double-digit victory. *10 Big Easy

Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The AFC West is still very much for grabs. That makes this game a huge game for both teams. At 5-5, Denver checks in with the better record. However, I believe that the 4-6 Chargers are favored by this many points for good reason. Taking a look at the total yards between these teams is quite revealing. The Chargers are outgaining opponents by an average margin of 390.2 to 336.1. At home, they're outgaining opponents by an average margin of 393.4 to 308.8. On the other hand, the Broncos are being outgained by a 356.4 to 309.2 margin. Yes, Tebow and the Broncos have managed a couple of victories in a row. They caught the Chiefs off-guard though and then caught the Jets on a short week. This time, however, the Chargers know what to expect and have had plenty of time to prepare for it. Despite their recent skid, the Chargers should have plenty of confidence. They already won by five at Denver earlier and they hammered the Broncos by a score of 35-14 here last season. The Chargers were laying -8.5 for that one but we're getting a lower line on them here. They're 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. This is still an extremely talented team, one which still believes. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats in convincing "blowout" fashion. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. With an 0-10 record, naturally, not many people want anything to do with the Colts right now. I don't blame them. The Colts have been pretty bad. That said, I feel this is an excellent spot for them. All that negative sentiment has the Colts getting an excellent line, currently more than a field goal. Yet, they're playing a team that is in free-fall of late. The Panthers are 0-3 SU/ATS their last three and they've been outscored by a combined 103-59 margin. Note that the Panthers have yet to win a game on the road. They're 0-4 away from Carolina. That brings them to 3-18 SU on the road the past few seasons. Yet, once again, they're laying more than a field goal. With their remaining four games coming against New England, Baltimore, Tennessee and Houston, the Colts know this game offers them the best chance for a victory. Whatever people might say, this team does not want to finish winless. The Colts are off a bye, giving them extra time to prepare for this one. They're 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times they were off a bye. On the other hand, the Panthers played on the road last week. They're now playing the second leg of a 3-game road trip and they've got a divisional game on deck. I'll gladly grab the points. However, I expect the Colts to be the "hungrier" team and for to lead to an outright victory. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. I successfully played against Stanford last week. The Cardinal were -17 point favorites vs. Cal and they won by only three points. One of the reasons that I played against the Cardinal was that I felt they weren't fully "recovered" from their loss to Oregon. While they'd surely like a convincing win here, I still don't think that they've got the Oregon loss out of their heads. Either way, this is a very talented Notre Dame team, one which expects to leave here with a victory. Since dropping a pair of games they easily could have won to start the season, The Irish have won eight of nine, including four straight. They did lose running back Jonas Gray last week. However, they still have another very capable back in Cierre Wood. Indeed, Wood already has more than 1000 rushing yards, including 94 last week. Meanwhile, Michael Floyd is among the best receivers around. He's already topped the 1000 yard mark in receiving, after also doing so last season. In his three games against Stanford, he's got 19 receptions for 310 yards and three TDs. Admittedly, the Irish didn't play well against USC - and they lost that one by 14. Beating Stanford, a team which defeated USC, would go along way in redeeming that loss though - and I expect the Irish to be extremely motivated to do just that. Added motivation comes from the fact that the Cardinal have defeated them the past two seasons. Keep in mind that ND's other two losses both came by four or fewer points. The Irish didn't cover vs. Stanford last season. That was the only time that they failed to get the cash the past nine times that they were "getting points" though, as we find them at 8-1 ATS their last nine as underdogs, dating back to before Christmas of 2008. I expect them to improve on those stats here and won't be at all surprised by an outright win. *10 main event

Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. Clemson is already set to play in the ACC title game. However, the Tigers have lost two of three, turning the ball over a whopping 11 times in the process. Last week, they lost 37-13 against NC State. Even Clemson coach Dabo Swinney noted this of the Tigers' last three games: "We're lucky we hadn't lost all three." While the Tigers have a "bigger" game on deck, this one is huge for South Carolina. The Gamecocks have a chance to get to 10 wins, which would match the best mark in school history. As coach Spurrier noted: "If you're not in the conference championship game, this becomes the biggest game of the year for us." The Gamecocks offense finally got back on track last time out - albeit against a lesser opponent. Meanwhile, the defense has been among the best in the country all year. The South Carolina defense ranks fifth in the FBS in total defense (279.5 yards per game) and second against the pass (137.5). Spurrier said this of the big offensive performance: "Might have been the best offensive game since I've been here..." The Gamecocks are 3-1 ATS their last four against the ACC and have won 11 of their last 13 non-conference games. They crushed Clemson 29-7 last season and 34-17 the previous year. I expect "more of the same" on Saturday. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on KENTUCKY. On paper, the Volunteers have more to play for. With an exciting and controversial win over Vanderbilt last week, this game matters for them. The Wildcats, on the other hand, are playing out the string. That doesn't mean that they don't want to close out their season with a win though, while doing some "spoiling" at the same time. While Kentucky is off back to back losses, both those came on the road. They certainly haven't quit either. Last week, the Wildcats lost by only nine, at Georgia. In their last home game, the Wildcats crushed Ole Miss by a score of 30-13. Note that Kentucky is a profitable 6-2 ATS the last eight times it was off back to back SU losses. While the competition has admittedly been very tough, the Vols are winless on the road. Every road game has resulted in a double-digit loss and they've been outscored by an average of 39.7 to 12 in those games. Yet, now they're laying a TD (maybe more at some shops) on the road. I don't believe there's a large gap in talent between these teams. Therefore, I feel the line is very generous and I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on CENTRAL FLORIDA. Both teams have had disappointing seasons and both enter this game, the last for each, off a loss. The Knights have been playing much better football though. Stepping down in class and playing at home, I expect them to close out their season with a convincing victory. The Knights' last three games have come against a good Tulsa team and the other two were on the road, including one against a fairly good Southern Miss. team. While they did lose all three of those games, ALL three losses came by a touchdown or less, including a 1 point loss at Southern Miss and a 7-pt loss vs. Tulsa. By comparison, those same two teams (Tulsa and Southern Miss) defeated UTEP by a combined margin of 88-41 AND the Miners got to face them both at UTEP to boot. UTEP is actually still in contention for a 6-win season which would make it bowl eligible. That doesn't mean the Miners want this game any more than the Knights though, as UCF is determined to go out on a high note. Coach O'Leary had this to say: "It's been a very frustrating season. We've lost six games by a total of 31 points. That's one possession or one defensive stop really. I think our players have played really hard, but we have tried to build our program on not making mistakes, no penalties and not beating yourself, and we really haven't gotten that accomplished this season." Remember, O'Leary's team had 11 wins last year and this is the most successful senior class in school history. They DO NOT want to go out on a losing note. Senior tight end Adam Nissley noted: "As a senior it just means going out on the highest note possible. Being able to go out with a win would be the next best thing without being able to go to a bowl." While he's expected to start, UTEP has a banged-up starting QB. The Miners are also without arguably the best player in their secondary, as senior safety TraVaun Nixon, who leads the team in interceptions, injured his knee last week. The Knights are 16-9 ATS the last 25 times that they were favored and that includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark the last three times that they were listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. I expect them to deliver a highly motivated effort, going out on top and ending the Miners' bowl dreams with a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on BALTIMORE. Give the 49ers credit. Its not easy to get to nine wins in the NFL, let alone to do it by Thanksgiving. That said, I don't believe that they're a "legit" 9-1 team. Nor do I believe that they're even as good as the 7-3 Ravens. Particularly not here at Baltimore, where the Ravens are a perfect 5-0. While the Ravens have to play the Steelers twice - they already beat them both times, including a 35-7 beatdown here at Baltimore - the 49ers have a trio of lightweights in their division. The Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals are currently a combined 9-21. I feel this will be by far the 49ers toughest game yet. Looking at their road games shows that they squeaked past the likes of Cincy, Philly, Washington and Detroit. None of those four teams has proven to be all that good though. At least not as good as they may have appeared at one time and/or as they were expected to be coming into the season. And, a closer look shows that despite being 4-0 in those games, the 49ers have actually been outgained yardage-wise, when playing away from San Francisco. Meanwhile, Baltimore is "battle-tested" against other quality teams. In addition to the two victories over the Steelers, the Ravens have beaten the likes of the Jets and the Texans, each of those victories coming by greater than two touchdowns. Of course, they've also been a top team for several years now, while that cannot be said of the 49ers. Indeed, the 49ers are still just 7-13 SU their last 20 road games while the Ravens are a commanding 18-3 SU their last 21 at home. Not only are the Ravens a better team (in my opinion) AND playing at home, but they've also got a big scheduling advantage. Keep in mind that the Ravens played right here last Sunday, an early game (31-24) victory over the Bengals. Meanwhile, just as the Ravens were wrapping up that game, the 49ers were getting started playing theirs - and that was way out on the West Coast. So, already playing on a very short-week, the 49ers have had had to travel clear across the country - to play at one of the toughest venues in the entire league. While Jim Harbaugh has made quite the splash, I expect brother John to get the better of him here, with the Ravens covering the small number along the way. *10 Roast

Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. The Aggies are a talented team and they enter this game off a convincing 61-7 victory. That being the case and with the Longhorns off back to back losses, we're getting a very generous line with the underdog. I feel that big line is providing us with excellent value. Yes, the Aggies are off the big win. However, keep in mind that victory came against a terrible Kansas team, one which Texas also crushed. (The Longhorns beat Kansas 41-0). So, that victory arguably wasn't as impressive as it sounds. Prior to that, the Aggies had been 0-4 ATS their previous four games, losing the previous three outright. They're still an ugly 3-8 ATS on the season. Going back further finds the Aggies are a money-burning 1-5 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. The Longhorns have gone 2-1 ATS on the road. They won by 10 their last trip here and they're also 13-6 SU the last 19 times that they were off back to back losses. The Aggies are just 3-8 their last 11 Kyle Field finales, including 1-4 vs. Texas. Five of the Aggies' last nine games have been decided by a touchdown or less. Speaking of close games, last year's meeting was decided by a touchdown, a 24-17 victory for the Aggies. I feel this one could well be close the entire way and am grabbing all the points that I can get. *10 Main Event

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO. This line climbed above a touchdown since it opened and I feel that provides us plenty of value with the underdog. No question, the RedHawks have had a disappointing season. This is still a talented and capable team though. Remember, they went from going 1-11 in 2009 to 10-4 and winning a bowl game in 2010. While this year's team got a new coach, it also returned 17 starters. That means that they've had experience winning and having a 1st-year coach here should also ensure they go all out to close out the season with a victory, building some positives for next year. Also, note that these teams had a big and heavily hyped game at Miami last season. The RedHawks were embarrassed by their "instate rival" in that one - their final loss of the season - and that should provide them with some added motivation here. On the other hand, Ohio has already clinched a spot in the MAC Title game. While the Bobcats would surely like to win big, unlike the RedHawks, they've got a bigger and far more important game on deck. Both teams have shown a tendency to play close games. Ohio won by one point last time out and has now seen six of its last eight games decided by eight or fewer points. Meanwhile, Miami Ohio is off back to back games which were decided by a field goal and has now seen four of its last seven decided by a touchdown or less. I feel this one could well be close too and am grabbing all the points I can get. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The Chargers aren't getting much respect these days, while the Bears are getting plenty. That makes sense as Chicago is 6-3 while the Chargers are only 4-5. This is still a very talented San Diego team though, one which is still very much alive in its division. In fact, the Chargers have a far greater shot at winning their division than the Bears do! That said, the Chargers desperately need this one. They also have a lot to prove. I expect them to come ready to play. While they are normally better here at Chicago, this hasn't been one of the Bears' best roles recently. In fact, they're 0-3 ATS the last three times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. During that stretch, the Bears are also a dismal 7-13 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. Even with the recent losses, the Chargers are still 8-2 the last 10 times that they played in November. The Chargers have seen seven straight games decided by 10 or fewer points, incl. two that were decided by a field goal. With the Chargers "desperate" for a victory, I expect them to give the Bears all they can handle and am grabbing all the points that I can get. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Its certainly been a disappointing season for the Browns. A win here won't change that. However, it will help temporarily ease some of the pain. I expect the Browns to be the "more motivated" team here and for that to lead to a win and cover. Yes, last week's loss was a difficult one, lets keep in mind that the Browns were in position to win - they would have won if not for a missed 22-yard field goal. They had a solid edge in total yards and time of possession and QB McCoy was 20 of 27 without throwing an interception. After Sunday's tough 1-point loss here, the Browns are now 2-3 at home. Not great by any means; but at least they have won here and know they can do so. The Browns also know that four of their final six games come on the road and that their remaining two games here come against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, both better teams than the Jacksonville team that they'll face here. In other words, in theory, this should be the "easiest" game remaining on their schedule, as they'll be underdogs in every game the rest of the way. Note that even with last week's loss, the Browns are 9-7 ATS the last 16 times that they were off two or more consecutive losses. Not many bettors have given the Jaguars much respect this season. However, I've successfully backed them a couple of times, winning with them when they beat both Baltimore and Tennessee. I felt those were both favorable spots for the Jaguars though and in each case, the Jags were playing at home. Perhaps more importantly, in both cases, the games actually mattered. The game vs the Titans came in Week 1 (when every team still has hope) and was the home opener, so the Jags really wanted that one. The game vs. Baltimore came on National TV and they were off five straight losses, so they also really wanted that one. It may be harder for them to "get up" for this one though. Even with last Sunday's win over the Colts, (still a hated division rival even without Peyton Manning at QB) the Jags know they essentially have no chance of making the playoffs. Now, they're playing a non-divisional opponent who they have no "rivalry" with. They're also playing their third straight on the road. With a divisional showdown vs. Houston on deck, followed by a Sunday Night game vs. San Diego, it may be tough to focus on the "lowly" Browns. Even with last week's victory, note the Jags are still 1-4 on the road, the lone win coming vs an 0-9 team. They're 6-15 on the road the past few seasons. These teams faced each other each of the past two seasons. In each case, the home team won and covered. Last season, playing at Jacksonville, the Jags won 24-20, as -3 point favorites. However, the previous season, when these teams faced each other here at Cleveland, the Browns won by six (23-17) as -2 point favorites. Playing in front of the home fans, I expect a "hungry" Browns team to bounce back and get it done. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. I've had plenty of recent success picking my spots to go "on" and "against" Cal. (Most recently, I won with the Bears when they beat up on Utah while winning against them when they got hammered by UCLA.) I feel this will prove to be an excellent "play ON" spot. As you surely know, Stanford lost its first game last week. Playing their biggest game of the season, the Cardinal got hammered by the Oregon Ducks. As they were actually starting to believe that they could run the table, last week's loss figures to be hard to immediately bounce back from. Indeed, many bettors tend to expect highly ranked teams to bounce back huge off their first loss. However, when that first loss comes late in the season, I've often found the opposite to be true. You may recall that I successfully played against the Badgers a few weeks ago, when they were off their first loss. Instead of bouncing back from their loss at Michigan State, as many expected, the Badgers lost again. This week, the Cardinal are not only being asked to bounce back with a victory, they're being asked to bounce back and win by nearly three touchdowns. Against a solid Cal team off back to back double-digit wins, I feel that's asking too much. Note that Stanford is just 1-3 ATS the last four times that it was coming off a conference loss. Off that crushing defeat (and with Notre Dame) on deck, this game surely can't seem that exciting. Note that Stanford coach David Shaw said TE Zach Ertz is unlikely to play against Cal. Also, WR Chris Owusu is out. Remember, Luck had already lost most of his weapons from last year's team. As noted, the Bears are off back to back big wins. They've now held three of their past four opponents to 10 points or less. It should also be noted that the Bears have had this game circled since Stanford destroyed them in front of their home fans last season. Cal did win outright here the previous season though - a 34-28 victory as a +7 point underdog. The Bears are a highly profitable 21-10 ATS the last 31 times that they were +10.5 to +21 point underdogs. A win here would really make their season and I look for them to go all out to try and get it. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. The Wildcats are off a win over a good team and boast an impressive 8-2 record. Yet, I feel the 6-3 Longhorns are favored for good reason. Off last week's loss at Missouri and with a pair of tough road games on deck to close out the season, the Longhorns know that they need to take care of business here. While they did lose last year, note that the Longhorns remain an impressive 16-2 their last 18 home finales. The Longhorns also feel they have a score to settle as the Wildcats embarrassed them 39-14 at Manhattan last year and have beaten them three straight times. With K-State off an emotional 4-Overtime victory, the Longhorns are catching the Wildcats at the right time. While K-State may have the better overall record, the Longhorns have been arguably more impressive at home than the Wildcats have on the road. Texas is outgaining opponents by a 470 to 267 margin at home, outscoring them 34.4 to 16.6 here. On the other hand, K-State is actually being outgained on the road, giving up a whopping 463 yards per road game, averaging 427.5 themselves. While they've really struggled in underdog role, the Longhorns have quietly gone an impressive 6-1 ATS (7-0 SU) the last seven times that they were laying points, including 4-0 ATS the last four. Catching an "emotionally and physically drained" Wildcat team, I expect the Longhorns and their superior defense to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on OHIO STATE. I played on Penn State last week. Even if there hadn't been "the scandal," there's a good chance that I would have backed the Nittany Lions in that one. However, I actually liked the Nittany Lions more after the scandal. For starters, the line went up, at or above a field goal. Playing at home, I felt that was offering excellent value. Secondly, I really felt that the players would rise up and elevate their level of play, showing that Penn State was bigger than the disgusting and tragic events which the school was being associated with. While they fell behind early, the Nittany Lions did indeed come ready to play. They ended up losing by three, either a win or push, depending on when and where one played. That was a home game though - a game where they really left it all on the field. While I felt that the Nittany Lions would be able to channel their emotions for a single game, I now feel that it will be much tougher to do it in back to back weeks, let alone at a hostile venue like Ohio State. Last week, they had the full support of the home fans and were running on emotion. This week, neither will be there to help them. I expect the exhausting events to take a toll. Don't expect the Buckeyes to have any sympathy though. Not when they're coming off a disappointing loss of their own! Ohio State is 4-0 ATS the last four times it was off a conference loss and 16-5 ATS its last 21 home lined games. The Buckeyes won their last game here by double-digits (and upset Wisconsin here before that) and I expect another convincing win this afternoon. *10 Big Easy

Reason: I'm playing on ILLINOIS. I wasn't surprised that the Badgers lost at Michigan State or that they followed it up with a loss at Ohio State. After all, that first loss killed their hopes of an undefeated season. It also hasn't been surprising that the Badgers have responded with back to back big wins. After all, those games came against weak opponents, Purdue and Minnesota. I expect them to have their hands full this afternoon though. While they can't go undefeated, the Badgers are still in the hunt for the Big Ten "Leaders" Division title. They know they're currently a game back of Penn State though and also know that they face those same Nittany Lions next week. Obviously, that's a huge game - and I feel it may be easy to get caught looking past Illinois. That could well prove costly though. The Illini have struggled lately and are admittedly dealing with some adversity. They're without a starting linebacker and their coach is on the "hot seat." As coach Zook noted, however, "When you've got problems, that's when you find out what kind of people you are and what kind of person you are and you've just got to keep on keeping on and work through it..." I expect the Illini to "dig deep" in this one. Note that the teams haven't played for a few years but have a history of playing "close" games. The most recent, at Wisconsin in 2008, was decided by 10 points. The most recent here at Champaign (2007) saw Illinois win by five. Speaking of "close games," the Illini have seen their last two home finales decided by a combined five points. The Illini are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range and that includes a 1-0 ATS mark as a home underdog in the +14.5 to +17 range. Looking to salvage their season and possibly their coach's job, I expect the Illini to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. Admittedly, the Tar Heels have been a bit inconsistent. That being the case, many bettors are wary to back them. Combine that with the fact that UNC is off an "ugly" loss while V-Tech is off a convincing win and we're getting a very large line to work with. I believe it will prove to be too high. I didn't play on the Tar Heels in their last game. That was a good thing, as they "failed to show up," losing 12-0 at NC State. That was an "instate rivalry" game though and those can tend to have a different feel to them, particularly that one. The Wolfpack wanted it more and played harder. That was the 5th straight time that NC State has beaten UNC though, as that's arguably the most important game to the Wolfpack's fan base. That doesn't seem to be the case for the Tar Heels. However, it should be noted that they've fared well, after losing to the Wolfpack in previous seasons. Last year, they followed up their loss to NC State by winning on the road, at Duke. The previous season, their loss to NC State came in the final game of the regular season. In 2008, the Heels followed up their loss to the Wolfpack with an 8-point victory, as a -7.5 point favorite. the previous season, after losing at NC State, the Heels covered the spread at Georgia Tech, losing by only two (27-25) as a +9.5 point favorite. In other words, just because the Tar Heels stunk against the Wolfpack, it doesn't necessarily mean that they'll do it again. If anything, losing to their "rival" seems to have a motivating effect. In this case, the Heels have also had plenty of extra preparation time, as that game came by on 11/5. Note that UNC is 7-4 SU the last 11 times it was off a conference loss, including a 2-1 SU/ATS mark in that situation this season. Some of you will recall that we backed this same UNC team the game before NC State and the Heels rewarded us by crushing Wake Forest. Also, note that two of UNC's conference losses came by a touchdown or less. The Heels lost by six vs. Miami and by seven at Georgia Tech. The Hokies are off an 11-point win at Georgia Tech but they're no strangers to playing close conference games either. They beat Miami by three and Duke by four. They're still just 2-5 ATS their last seven. While the Hokies are 0-4 ATS the last four times that they were favored in the -10.5 to -21 range, the Tar Heels are 2-0 ATS the last two times that they were underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range. The Heels won outright here last visit, 20-17 when listed as a +14.5 point underdog. I expect another close one tonight. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on BOWLING GREEN. The Bobcats are on a nice roll. However, they're playing on a short week here while also playing back to back road games for the first and only time this season. On the other hand, Bowling Green is well-rested and "desperate." While the Bobcats played on 11/10, the Falcons last played on 11/8. Ohio is still looking to wrap up the MAC East but Bowling Green figures to be even more hungry as they need to win this game AND win their final one (winnable road game at Buffalo) to get to six wins. While they were blown out by one of the best teams in the MAC West (NIU) last time out, the Falcons have beaten Temple and Miami Ohio, two of the better teams in the MAC East. While Bowling Green is only 2-3 at home, last week's loss to NIU was the only home defeat which came by more than a touchdown. The other losses here came by seven points and one point. They're still outscoring opponents by a 26.6 to 24.8 margin here. Despite the sub-500 record, the Falcons have really shown improvement from last year (when they finished just 2-10) and are a much stronger team than the one that was a +8 or +9 point underdog at Ohio last year. Yet, now they're playing a "must win" game, have the schedule in their favor AND are playing their home finale, yet we're getting nearly as many points to work with. While they've dropped two in a row, note that the Falcons are already 2-0 ATS this season, after having lost two or more consecutive games. Ohio is certainly a good MAC team and won't be easy to beat. That said, playing their final home game of the season, I expect the Falcons to go all out, improving on those stats with at least another cover. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on DALLAS. I'm afraid that I still don't believe in the Bills. Last week's 27-11 home loss to the Jets did little to change my opinion of them. Note that Buffalo is only 2-6 SU/ATS the last eight times that it was coming off a divisional loss. In fact, the Bills are just 3-9 SU/ATS the last dozen times that they were off a divisional game - as those games seemingly take a real toll on them. This is a very big game for both teams, as both are fighting to try and get to the top of their division. At 5-3, the Bills are in a 3-way tie with the Jets and Pats, who face each other Sunday Night. Despite being 4-4, the Cowboys are a more legit playoff team though, in my opinion. That said, they also know they can ill afford to fall below .500 and risk potentially falling three games behind the Giants. They didn't cover (as the line was very high) but the Cowboys are off a 10-point win vs. Seattle. They've now won seven of their last 10 November games. They're 3-1 at home. The Bills are 1-2 in true road games. While there will be a lot of talk about the Dallas offense missing receiver Myles Austin, note that the Cowboys' defense should get a boost in this one; leading tackler Sean Lee is expected to return after missing the last game and a half with a wrist injury. With an O/U line in the high 40s, this is expected to be a fairly high-scoring game. That should suit the Cowboys just fine. They're 8-3 SU/ATS the last 11 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here and feel that a line of less than a touchdown with the Cowboys is providing us with excellent value. *10 Personal Fav

Reason: I'm playing on DUKE. I feel that these teams are far more evenly matched than the pointspread indicates. Therefore, I feel that getting "double-digits" with the "dog" is very attractive. I won with Duke in this matchup last season. The pointspread was close to a "pick'em" and Duke won by a score of 55-48. Granted, that game was at Duke and this one is at Virginia. Also, this is an improved Virginia team. However, I feel that the same can be said of Duke. Keep in mind that this is now David Cutcliffe's fourth year with the Blue Devils and that with 14 returning starters, this was considered to be his best team since being here. While Duke has lost four straight, keep in mind that two of those losses (vs V-Tech and Wake Forest) came by four points or less. Both those resulted in pointspread victories and have the Blue Devils at a profitable 5-2 ATS their last seven. The Blue Devils have actually won two of their three road games this season, including a victory at Boston College. They're now 8-5-1 ATS their last 14 in the road. As for the recent losses, note that Duke remains a lucrative 7-4 ATS the past few seasons, when off back to back SU losses. On the other hand, during the same stretch, Virginia is only 1-4 ATS when off back to back SU victories. Note that the Cavs lost 28-14 (to NC State) in their most recent home game. In fact, they're just 2-3 ATS at home this season. Their two home wins against 1-A teams came by only four combined points. Looking at the last meeting here and we find that Virginia was a -7.5 point favorite but that Duke won outright, 28-17. The Blue Devils are 11-4 ATS their last 15 against teams with a winning record. They've had Virginia's number the past couple of seasons and I look for them to give their hosts all they can handle once again. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on AIR FORCE. Just looking at the records of these teams, many might wonder why Air Force is such a big favorite. After all, the Falcons are only 5-4 while Wyoming is 5-3. However, I feel the Falcons are favored for good reason. In fact, I expect them to win this one quite comfortably. Lets take a closer look. As is often the case, records can be deceiving. To its credit, Wyoming did beat an "ok" San Diego State team, one which beat Air Force. That was by far the Cowboys' most impressive victory though. Their other wins came against 1-AA teams Weber State and Texas State University. The other two wins came against Bowling Green and UNLV, both bad teams with losing records. Keep in mind that the Cowboys also lost 63-19 vs. Utah State. Last week, they fought hard vs. TCU but came up short. That loss figures to be tough to bounce back from, as they really "left it all on the field." Granted, the Falcons don't boast many victories over big name or good teams either. They have at least beaten both Navy and Army though. Having also played Boise State tough (11 point loss as +30 point favorite) on the blue turf, the Falcons have shown they can play with anyone. More importantly, for this particular case, they've also demonstrated that they can blow teams out, in the recent 42-0 destruction of New Mexico. The Falcons won by "only" six at Wyoming last season. However, a closer look reveals that they had a 27-12 edge in first downs in that game and had massive statistical edges across the board. They dominated that game, after falling behind early. The Falcons also shutout the Cowboys the last game here. While the Falcons are off a big (won 24-0!) second half, the Cowboys are off a bad (outscored 14-3) one - I feel that'll prove significant here, from a momentum standpoint. The Falcons have won six of seven November games the past couple of seasons. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion, earning the cover along the way. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on PENN STATE. How will the Nittany Lions react to the Paterno scandal/firing? While nobody will know for sure, until the game is actually played. However, my hunch is that they come ready to play. Regardless of how they may feel about Paterno (most still love him but are probably pretty confused) this is a team, school and community that feels the whole world is against them. This is their chance to stand up and show that Penn State is bigger than all that and that they (the players) had nothing to do with any of the alleged atrocities. All that nastiness aside, this is a big football game between a pair of top programs. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 in conference play, coming off a bye, playing at home and have won seven straight games. Meanwhile, the Huskers lost outright (at -17.5 point favorites!) vs. Northwestern, AT Nebraska, last week. (Penn State won by double-digits AT Northwestern!) Yet, the Huskers are favored and because of the scandal, the line has climbed even higher. I feel that's giving us excellent value. With last week's loss, the Huskers are only 3-6 ATS in November the past few seasons. They're also 3-4 ATS, when off a conference loss, during that span. The Nittany Lions are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the last four times that they played a home game with an O/U line ranging between 42.5 and 45. I expect them to band together as a team and to go all out, earning at least another cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. I won with Ohio last week, so I certainly respect the Bobcats. That said, I feel they're over-valued this week. The win over Temple was an emotional one. Facing a "lesser opponent" it may be easy for the Bobcats to suffer a slight "letdown" here. Either way, the win over Temple has caused this line to be a bit higher than it would have been otherwise. Therefore, its worth noting that the Bobcats are a poor 4-6 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. During the same stretch, the Chippewas were 4-2-1 ATS as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. True, the Chippewas have only three wins on the season, go to along with an admittedly very poor pointspread record. That said, their schedule has hardly been favorable. Indeed, seven of their last nine games have come on the road, including three straight. A closer look at the results shows that the Chippewas have actually been extremely competitive, dating back to the beginning of October. On 10/1, they won outright vs. Northern Illinois. (The Huskies won 45-14 Tuesday night, improving to 5-1 in MAC play. The Chippewas are the only MAC team that has beaten them.) Dating back to the win over the Huskies, ALL five of Central Michigan's conference games have been decided by seven or fewer points. The last three have ALL been decided by a total of just eight points. They had scores of 24-21, 23-22 (a win) and 24-21. I won with underdog Ohio the last time that these teams met. That was back in the 2009 Mac Championship game, played at Ford Field. Central Michigan was a -13.5 point favorite in that one but won by "only" 10. I look for the underdog to get the cash as this one again proves closer than many will be expecting. *10