Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on BYU. Perhaps the biggest story attached to this game is the return of Mike Leach to the sidelines. The former Texas Tech coach had plenty of success, prior to getting run out of town in 2009. He'll look to some excitement back to Washington State. Given his track record, the Cougars are likely to improve under Leach's watch. However, this is a very tough test for them and I don't expect that improvement to be immediate.



While the cupboard is not bare, in terms of talent, the Cougars are learning a brand new offense. Washington State should get decent QB play and does have a bigtime receiver in Marquess Wilson. He'll surely be a big part of the offense. However, BYU is well aware of Wilson - and after Wilson, the rest of the supporting cast has some question marks.



The defense gave up more than 400 yards per game last season and now switches from a 4-3 to a 3-4. That may also take some time.



I feel that BYU has an advantage on both the offensive and the defensive line.



I look for BYU to have success exploiting WSU's suspect front seven. BYU, a well coached team with an established system, will be hungry to start off well after a sluggish start last season. The Cougars have a senior quarterback, a talented offensive line and a dynamic pair of big and fast receivers. (Hoffman and Apo are 6'4" and 6'3".)



The defense is also talented and experienced. Keep in mind that BYU closed out last season by winning its final three games by a combined score of 42-14, prior to knocking off Tulsa (by 3) in the bowl.



The Cougars outscored teams by an average score of 32.9 to 18.3 here last season, outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game here. Note that the margin of victory is greater than two touchdowns. (Washington State was outscored by an average score of 36 to 22.4, a margin of greater than 13 per game.



Leach, a BYU alum, gets a rude welcome back to the game. I expect the home team to pull away for a convincing win. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on OAKLAND. While the Seahawks have been impressive the entire preseason, the Raiders have steadily improved. They began with a 3-0 loss to Dallas. That suited me fine, as I had a play on the under. I didn't play their second game but the Raiders bounced back with a much better performance. They lost 31-27 at Arizona, eking out a cover in the process.



I backed the Raiders last week and they rewarded me with their best effort yet. Not only did they beat the Lions by a score of 31-20, they outgained them by a commanding 513-281 margin. An impressive performance indeed.



Prior to that game, I noted the following in my analysis: "...I believe that Oakland players want this one. Michael Huff had this to say: 'We want to show everybody that this is the new Raiders. We're going to put that on film every Sunday

I'm playing HOUSTON on the RUN-LINE. (+1.5 runs.) Admittedly, the Astros have been pretty bad for quite some time. They dropped yesterday's opener, extending their lengthy losing skid. All those losses have started to work in our favor as the Astros' lines are starting to get juicer and juicier. In today's case, we're able to get them on the run-line (+1.5 runs) at roughly a pick'em price. Given the matchup, I feel that's providing us with excellent value.

The pitching matchup features Karstens taking on Lyles. Overall, Karstens has been better. He's also been stronger in his last few starts. However, a closer look reveals that Lyles has actually been much better at home than Karstens has on the road.

Karstens has been outstanding at Pittsburgh, including 15 shutout innings in his last two home starts. However, in five road starts, he's just 1-2 with a terrible 6.12 ERA and a high 1.44 WHIP. The Pirates are 2-3 when he starts on the road and Karstens only averages five innings per road start. It should be noted that THREE of Karsten's five road starts (60%) were decided by a single run.

Going back further finds the Pirates at just 6-11 in Karsten's last 17 road starts and that NINE of those 17 were decided by a single run.

Lyles has really had problems on the road. That hasn't been the case here at Houston though. He's averaging 6.5 innings per home start and has a respectable 3.62 ERA and 1.206 WHIP in five starts here overall. The Astros have won four of his last seven starts here and they'd be 5-2 in those games, if getting +1.5 runs each time.

Lyles' lone home start vs. Pittsburgh resulted in a 1-run loss.

The Pirates are very tough at Pittsburgh. However, they're still below .500 on the road and they're still only 6-13 here at Houston, since the start of the 2010 season. They'd be just 4-15 in those games, if laying -1.5 runs each time.

I'm grabbing the +1.5 runs with what should be a Houston squad desperate to snap its losing streak. *10

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS on the Run-Line (+1.5 Runs.) With an O/U line of 6.5, this is expected to be a low-scoring game. Naturally, in low-scoring games, every run takes on added importance. That said, I feel that getting an extra +1.5 runs with the home team is providing us with excellent value tonight.

Both starters have been outstanding. Cueto is 9-4 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.142 WHIP. Not to be outdone, Capuano is 9-3 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.097 WHIP. At home, Capuano's numbers are even better. In eight starts here, he's 5-1 with a superb 1.87 ERA.

Note that Capuano pitched well (again) last time out - but suffered a 1-run loss, losing 3-2. That was the fourth of Capuano's last five starts that was decided by a single run. So, while the Dodgers are only 3-2 vs. the moneyline his last five starts, they'd be a perfect 5-0 if they were getting +1.5 runs in all those games.

It should also be noted that each of Capuano's two 2011 starts vs. the Reds were decided by a single run.

Cueto is off a 5-0 loss last time out. The Reds are only 1-4 when he's started against the Dodgers and the only victory was a 1-run (3-2) game. So, they'd be 0-5 if laying -1.5 runs in all those games.

True, Ethier and Kemp remain out. However, the Reds are expected to be without Votto. In a potentially close low-scoring contest, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs with Capuano and the Dodgers. *9 Annihilator

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. Since successfully backing the Thunder in Game 1, I've been sticking with the Heat in these Finals. I'm switching sides in Game 5 though, as I don't think this talented Thunder team is quite ready to say die. History says that teams that are up 3-1 in the Finals go on to win the series. Those teams don't always win Game 5 though - and the Thunder are the type of team that doesn't care about what history says. While this is an elimination game, in a way, the pressure is off the Thunder. They know they are now expected to lose. As a result, I expect them to be loose. Let's not forget that every game has basically come down to the wire. By no means do the Thunder feel outclassed or intimidated. Despite the last couple of losses, note that the Thunder are still a terrific 66-38 ATS the past 100+ times that they faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. They're also still 9-4 ATS the past few playoffs, when trailing in a series. The Heat, who have now won three consecutive games, are just 11-15 ATS when having won their previous three games. Off three straight loses, note that the Thunder are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the last five times that they'd lost three in a row. The only time that they were in that situation this season, they responded with a convincing 16 point victory. With the pressure off, I expect them to "relax" and respond with their best effort of the series. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. These are both excellent teams and this has been a close series so far. As you know, Miami has won and covered in each of the last two games, since dropping the opener. As the Thunder had quite a chance to cover the spread in Game 3, many will look to 'zig-zag' and back them in Game 4. I feel that's providing us with excellent value on the Heat, as the Game 4 line is now even lower than it was for Game 3. I also look at things a little differently. Rather than assume that the Thunder will bounce back, just because they were "very close" in Game 3, I feel that the close loss can be hard to recover from. And that Miami's "close win" can be both a "wake up call" (not that the Heat need one!) and a source of momentum. While there are plenty of stats one could point to for both teams, I feel that homecourt, "Finals Experience" and Lebron's desire to win will ultimately again prove the difference. Even though the games in this series have been close, each one has still ended up being decided by a minimum of four points and the winning team has covered in each case. Given the relatively low number, I feel that's likely to be the case again. The Thunder are a very respectable 25-16 on the road. However, the Heat are a commanding 37-7 at home. Obviously, they really really want to win this series. However, the Thunder have already taken the next step, by winning the West. Even if they lose here, they've established themselves as a top Western team for many years to come. They're likely to be back in the Finals again, perhaps several times. Unlike the Thunder, the Heat have been here before and lost. (They won before Lebron came but are 0-1 in the Finals with him.) They're on a mission and anything less than winning this series will be considered a massive failure. They know they can seize control by winning this pivotal game but also that the Thunder will gain the advantage if they win it. I don't expect any letdown whatsoever. Rather, I feel that Lebron will be "all business" and in "smelling blood" mode. He desperately wants this championship, arguably more than any other player. The Heat are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. With Lebron willing them to victory, I expect them to improve on those stats Tuesday night. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY in the FIRST HALF. Perhaps the Oklahoma City Thunder were a little nervous due to Tuesday being their first game in the NBA Finals. Perhaps they were a bit rusty, due to having had a much longer layoff than the Heat. Or, perhaps they just ran into a Miami team which was still rolling with momentum from its big Game 6 and Game 7 victories over Boston in the previous series. Whatever the reason, or combination of reasons, the Thunder stumbled out of the gate in the opening game. They were down 29-22 at the end of the first half and 54-47 at halftime. That's actually the second time in a row they were down at half. However, before that, the Thunder had been leading at halftime in five of their previous games, including three straight. They had halftime leads of 52-44, 55-43 and 54-41 in those games. In other words, although we saw differently the last couple of games, this OKC team has shown an ability to start fast. The Heat may have had the lead at halftime of Game 1 but they haven't really been a very good first half team in the playoffs. While there certainly are exceptions, Lebron often tends to look to get others involved in the first half, before taking over in the second. Getting ahead in the first half didn't work for the Heat in Game 1 and they may sub-consciously no longer even think leading at the break is all its cracked up to be. You may recall the Heat were trailing 53-46 at the break in Game 7 vs. Boston and still came back to win by 13. They did have a halftime lead in Game 5 and Game 6, going 1-1 ATS. However, they were down big in Game 4 and down big in Game 3, Game 2 AND tied (when favored) in Game 1. Add it up and prior to Tuesday's first half victory, the Heat had gone 1-6 ATS (2-4-1 SU) in the first half of the Boston series. In other words, although we saw differently on Tuesday, this team has shown a tendency to start off a bit slowly. They won't have any rust this time and they shouldn't be nervous. They dominated the fourth quarter of Game 1 and I expect them to pick up right where they left off. Look for them to take the lead into the break, covering the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. I rode the Heat in Game 6 and Game 7 of the Boston/Miami series. I think Tuesday's game will prove much more difficult. Lebron and co. have had a couple of days off. However, they're still off an exhausting 7-game series with a bitter rival. Now, they've got to travel to take on a very well-rested and very talented opponent. Note that the Thunder are a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times that they played with three or more day's rest. While the Heat won as short favorites at Boston in Game 6, they're an ugly 1-5 ATS the last six times that they were listed as underdogs. The Heat were crushed by 16 points by the Thunder here back in late March. While the Heat are 22-19 on the road, outscoring opponents by a mere 95.7 to 94.2 margin, the Thunder are a commanding 34-7 at home. They outscored visiting teams by a 105.3 to 95.5 margin. They hit 49% of their shots here while holding opponents to a 42.5% mark. Some could argue that Lebron, Wade and Bosh are a better "Big 3" than Durant, Westbrook and Harden. (Really, that's debatable and will be better answered after this series.) However, I like the Thunder's "secondary" players better, at least for an opening game at OKC. Looking at some more stats, we find the Heat at just 41-42-1 ATS the past few seasons against teams from the West, including 8-10 ATS this season. Meanwhile, the Thunder ware 50-28 ATS against teams from the East, including 13-5 SU/ATS this season. They've played arguably tougher competition (Dallas, LA and San Antonio compared to NY, Indiana and Boston) and I look for them to improve on those numbers with a win and cover on Tuesday. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. *10 In my analysis of Game 6, I noted the following: "...As usual, there are plenty of stats one could use to make an argument for either side. In the end, however, I believe it will come down to Lebron refusing to be denied ... " That sure proved to be the case. Lebron had arguably the best game of his entire career and the Heat crushed the Celtics, essentially from wire-to-wire. I expect James and co. to ride the positive momentum from that clutch performance into Game 7. At one point in Game 5 of the Thunder/Spurs series, when OKC won on the road, TNT analyst Steve Kerr commented: "It just feels like Oklahoma City senses it. They are ready to break through. It's like a changing of the guard right before our eyes." I believe that's also what we witnessed in Game 6 at Boston. The Celtics have given the Heat fits in this series and many times over the years. However, with Bosh back on the floor to take some of the Celtics' attention off Wade and more importantly with Lebron taking his game to another level, I believe we witnessed a "changing of the guard" in this series. I believe the younger Heat "officially have their number" right now and I expect another dominating performance. The Celtics are only 5-9 ATS the last 14 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss and they're also only 3-5 ATS (2-6 SU) the last eight times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. So, this isn't one of their best roles. After losing two straight in the series vs. the Pacers, the Heat got it together with a big road win at Indiana. They then proceeded to return home and follow it up with a commanding 115-83 victory the next game, the first of five straight wins and four straight covers. Having again snapped their skid on the road, I expect the Heat to again build off their big road win, closing out the series in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. Things have sure changed in the Eastern Conference. After Rose went down and the Bulls got knocked out, many expected the Heat to practically coast all the way to the Finals. Off to a 2-0 lead after two games against the Celtics, it appeared that might indeed be the case. However, as you know, the Celtics have suddenly won three straight. Now, they get a chance to close things out on their home floor. Can Lebron and co. step up and get it done, in hostile territory against this veteran Celtic group? I believe the answer will prove to be yes. Bosh gave them 14 minutes, nine points and seven rebounds last time out. With that playing time under his belt and some more time to recover, hopefully he'll be able to give them more minutes here. Either way, whatever he can contribute, the Heat won't be sitting around waiting for him to lead them. I expect them to get right after it. As usual, there are plenty of stats one could use to make an argument for either side. In the end, however, I believe it will come down to Lebron refusing to be denied. Both he and Wade can get to the basket and/or foul line nearly any time they really want to. I expect them to do so early and often here. This is just the second time that the Heat found themselves trailing in a series this postseason. The previous time, they responded with an 8-point road win at Indiana. Meanwhile, the Celtics are only 2-4 SU/ATS when leading in a series. While it may not be easy, I'm not counting out the Heat quite yet. Behind a big game from their stars and an improved defensive effort, I expect them to find a way to force Game 7. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. So far, the home team has won all four games going 3-1 ATS. I won with the "under" in Game 1, avoiding the side. That was the game in which Harden hit two 3-pointers in the final five seconds, one of them at the buzzer, to give the Thunder a very fortunate cover. Since then, the home team has won each game by at least six points and by an average of nearly 12. I've been on the right side of each of those games, winning with the Spurs in Game 2 and the Thunder in Game 3 and Game 4. With the series shifting back to San Antonio, I'm coming back with the Spurs on Monday night. When the Spurs had won 20 in a row, some felt they might just run the table. At the time, I stated that I felt all that talk was far too premature and that they were still in for a major fight with the Thunder. Of course, OKC crushed them in Game 3, snapping the streak. In the next game, I noted that many will assume the Spurs, who had just won 20 in a row, couldn't possibly lose two in a row. I also pointed out that streaks are funny though and that often when a big winning streak is snapped, it can be followed with a second straight loss. Sure enough, that's what happened. The Spurs have now had their wake-up call though. They wanted to be challenged and now they have been. Returning home, I expect them to respond with their very best game. This is a Spurs team which is an outstanding 28-9-2 ATS on this floor. Note that the Spurs are also still a solid 16-10 ATS (19-7 SU) when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. The Thunder are just 9-18 ATS after scoring 105 or more in their previous game. They're also only 3-7 ATS (4-6 SU) when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. On the other hand, the Spurs are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) when playing a home game with an O/U line in that range. The Thunder are a very good team. They're talented, athletic and hungry. The Spurs are still playing as well as they have in years though and they've got all kinds of experience in this situation. While the Thunder are only 2-3 SU/ATS the last five times that they were tied in a playoff series, the Spurs are a highly profitable 19-8-1 ATS (20-8 SU) their last 28 that situation. The home team is a 3-point buzzer beater away from being a perfect 4-0 ATS in this series. In the end, I look for homecourt to again be the difference as the battle-tested Spurs step up, extend their home winning streak and cover the relatively short number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing MIAMI for the first half. The Celtics are now 3-0 ATS for the "first half" in this series. The teams were tied 46-46 at halftime in Game 1. Boston led 53-46 at the break in Game 2. Last time out, the Celtics held a 55-42 lead going into the locker-room. I expect a much different result this evening though. Off their first loss in the series and having been dominated in the first half last time out, I expect a determined effort from James and co. right out of the gate. Off their first loss in the Indiana series, although they would go on to lose that one too, the Heat took control right out of the gate. They led 26-17 after one quarter. It wasn't until the second half that they fell part, getting outscored 51-32. Off their first (and only) loss in the Knicks' series, the Heat responded by jumping all over NY out of the gate. They led 28-24 after one quarter and 55-44 at halftime. I expect James to do his thing and also expect a much better performance from Wade. The Celtics were a little more hungry/desperate last time out. I don't expect that to be the case here - at least not in the first half. The Heat will make adjustments, which I expect to pay immediate dividends and I look for them to take their first lead into the locker-room. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. I won with the Thunder (and the under) last game and I'm coming right back them again in Game 4. After they reeled off 20 straight victories, many people will feel that the Spurs can't possibly lose two in a row. Streaks are funny though. Often, when a long winning streak is snapped, we'll see that team follow it up with another loss. Likewise, a team that snaps a long losing streak will often follow up their initial victory with another one. In this case, the Spurs have now lost that "unbeatable" feeling. Meanwhile, the Thunder have regained their confidence and swagger. Keep in mind that its still the Thunder who need this game more and that they're now an excellent 8-3 ATS the last 11 times that they were trailing in a playoff series. While the Spurs are a very solid 26-12 on the road, the Thunder are an even better 32-7 at home. I expect them to improve on those stats Saturday night, covering the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing MIAMI for the 1st Half. I'm a little on the fence about who I feel will ultimately win this game. However, I do expect the Heat to come out "on fire" in the first half and believe they have an excellent shot of leading, going into the break. As you know, the Heat are up 2-0 in the series. They won and covered in Game 1. In Game 2, the Heat won but failed to cover. Despite the 2-0 series lead, the Heat have actually been trailing at halftime of each game. The score was tied (46-46) at halftime of Game and the Celtics led 53-46 at the break in Game 2. Having played the Heat tough in each of the first halves hasn't helped Boston yet. That being the case and off their devastating Game 2 loss, I won't be surprised if the Celtics come out a little flat here. The Celtics are very disappointed with the Game 2 loss, as they easily could have won that game. They wasted a remarkable performance from Rondo and have been complaining about the officiating. They could easily be hanging their heads a bit right out of the gate. The Heat know this is their chance to grab control of this series. A win here and its essentially over. A loss and the series is back on. That being the case, I expect James and co. to be all business right from the opening tip. The last time these teams met here was on 4/24. Boston won 78-66. However, the Heat had a 34-28 lead at halftime. I expect the Heat to again have the lead at the break here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. I won with the Spurs last game, after cashing with the 'under' in the opener. Obviously, with 20 straight wins, the Spurs have been very impressive and are playing at an extremely high level. Still, with the series shifting to Oklahoma City and the Thunder now fully in "must win" mode, I expect San Antonio's remarkable run to come to an end. The Spurs are an impressive 26-11 on the road. However, the Thunder are an even better 31-7 at home. The teams split two meetings here this season. The spread wasn't a factor in either game. The Spurs won one by nine. The Thunder won the other by 12. It should, however, be noted that each of those lines were higher (-5 and -6) that tonight's game. The Thunder are favored by less here, which I feel is providing excellent value. While the Spurs are outscoring teams by three points (101.1 to 98.1) on the road, the Thunder are outscoring teams by nearly 10 points (105.3 to 95.5) here at OKC. Although they came up short in Game 2, the Thunder are still an excellent 64-36 ATS the last 100 times that they faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting, 12-6 ATS their last 18 in that situation. They're undefeated on this floor during the postseason, crushing the Lakers by 16 points the last time that they played here. Even with the Game 2 loss, the Thunder are still a profitable 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were trailing in a playoff series. Many are already giving the Spurs this series. I think its still got a LONG way to go though. Playing on their home floor with the fans providing extra energy, I expect the OKC "Big 3" to get more help from their supporting cast and for that to lead to a badly needed victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. After the Spurs won but failed to cover in Game 1, the line has dropped a little lower for Game 2. I feel that's providing us with excellent value on the home team. True, the Thunder are a very talented team. They've been great during the playoffs and gave the Spurs a battle in the opener. However, as good as the Thunder have been, the Spurs have been better. They've simply been playing at another level. With 19 straight wins, this team is starting to set records. A win here will break the record for longest winning streak extended in the playoffs. I didn't play a side in the first game, instead winning with the total. So, I was able to watch the game objectionably - although this is something I always strive for. That said. I feel the Thunder were very fortunate to get the cover. It took a wild series of events concluding with a James Harden 3-pointer at the buzzer, his second from beyond the arc in the final five seconds. Despite failing to cover on Sunday, the Spurs are 30-13-1 ATS against winning teams this season and 39-18-3 ATS when laying points and 33-5 SU and 27-9-2 ATS at home. The Thunder, on the other hand, are 22-15-1 ATS on the road and only 21-21-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. Off their huge fourth quarter and Game 1 victory, I look for the Spurs to keep on rolling into the history books, this time covering the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BOSTON. Great run by Philadelphia. The 76'ers have exceeded everyone's expectations. Granted, they caught a major break when Derrick Rose went down early in the first round. Still, they deserve plenty of credit and respect. The 76'ers will get that credit and respect, at least from their home fans, no matter what happens here. Just like the Indiana Pacers' fans were still proud of their team when they lost to Miami, even the demanding fans in Philadelphia will give this team a hero's welcome when it returns. In the end, that's what I believe will happen - as I do feel that the 76'ers will be returning home - rather than traveling to Miami. The Celtics may be "old" and a bit "banged-up." However, this is still a team of former champions. They know Miami is without Bosh and they truly believe that they can beat the Heat. I don't feel that the 76'ers feel the same way. Some will doubt the Celtics due to their inability to seal the deal in Game 6. However, the fact is that the Celtics have rarely fared well when trying to close out a series on the road. They have had numerous huge Game 7 victories though. They've been here before and that big game experience - combined with the fact that they're playing on their home floor - should be the difference. The 76'ers were terrible (17 of 28) from the free throw line last time out - and that may be in their heads here. The experienced Celtics seemingly have ice in their veins (20 of 23 last game) when at the line though, a trait which should serve them well down the stretch, should Philadelphia be fortunate enough to still be in the game. The Celtics also shot much better (42 of 52) from the line than the 76'ers (35 of 52) each of the previous two games. While Allen may be a bit hobbled, he remains dangerous. The two days off in between games should help him. Note that Boston is 26-12 SU the past few seasons when playing with two day's off in between games. Meanwhile, the trio of Rondo, Garnett and Pierce is unstoppable when they're all clicking, as they were the last game here. Boston won that game by a score of 101-85. In the end, experience, pedigree and homecourt should prove the difference once again. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. With Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and a whole lot of playoff experience, the Lakers remain a very dangerous team. If they could have found a way to win either Game 2 OR Game 4, I feel that they'd still have a fighting chance in this series. They didn't though, suffering close losses in both those games. Losing Game 2 was a heartbreaker, as they had that one in hand late. However, at least it came on the road. Losing Game 4 at home was the real killer. The Lakers now find themselves down 3-1 and knowing they have to win three straight, two here at OKC. That's a daunting task, to say the least. (Even if they did manage to win in seven games, they'd then go on to face a rested Spurs team.) Faced with enormity of that task, while they'd naturally say otherwise publicly, I believe the Lakers have now accepted the fact that this isn't going to be their year. After coming up just short in Game 4, the Lakers are now just 14-28-2 ATS the last 44 times that they were trailing in a playoff series, 2-5-1 ATS their last eight. You may recall last year's playoffs when the Lakers faced the Mavericks. After having lost a couple of close games earlier in the series, when faced with elimination, the Lakers packed it in and lost by 36 points. While the Lakers may have accepted defeat, if only sub-consciously, the Thunder smell blood in the water. They're younger more hungry, arguably more talented and arguably better coached. With a chance to seal the deal in front of the home fans, I expect them to be at their very best. The last thing they want to do is to give the Lakers any life and to have to extend this series while the Spurs get to rest. They're 30-7 on this floor, outscoring teams by an average of 105.3 to 95.7. I expect them to close out the series with a double-digit victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. When a team gets down 3-0 in the NBA, history tells us that the series is over. I'm not about to argue. Bettors know this and many aren't willing to back the team that's down 0-3. That helps to create additional line value with the team that's down 0-3, as the books are forced to post a big number. I spoke about the same thing in the Heat/Knicks series. Just as I won with the Spurs in Game 1 of this series, I successfully backed the Heat in Game 1 of that Miami/NY series. I avoided the Knicks in Game 2 and Game 3 of that series, just as I have avoided the Clippers in Game 2 and Game 3 of this one. I did come back and play on the Knicks as a fairly large home underdog in Game 4 though. Not only did they cover, they won outright. The Heat relaxed a little while the Knicks dug deep and decided to try and salvage some pride. The Spurs are a better coached and a generally more disciplined team than the Heat. They could still let down slightly here though. Meanwhile, with Chris Paul leading the team, I feel that the Clippers are highly unlikely to go down without a fight. The competitive Paul has a ton of pride and should make sure his team gives a maximum effort the entire way. While I don't normally pay much attention to the day, its interesting to note that the Clippers are 9-1 their last 10 Sunday games, the Spurs going 5-3 during the same stretch. Yesterday's game between the Lakers and Thunder was the second of back-to-back games, a relatively rare occurrence in the NBA playoffs. That game came right down to the wire, decided by only three points. This game is also the second of b2b games. With Paul and co. showing some prided, I expect this one to also come right down to the final buzzer and am grabbing all the points I can get. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. After earning a split at Boston - and nearly winning both games - the 76ers got a rude awakening in Game 3. The Celtics' stars all clicked at the same time and Boston won by double-digits. Many will now be writing off the 76ers. I'm not ready to do so though. This team has done an excellent job of bouncing back from a loss of late and I expect them to be at their best here. The 76ers are 3-0 when coming off a loss this month. Off a loss in Game 1 at Chicago, they responded with a 109-92 victory in Game 2. Off a loss in Game 5 of that series, they bounced back with a win in Game 6. Then, off a loss at Game 1 at Boston, the 76ers followed it up by taking Game 2. While they gave up 107 points in Game 3, the 76ers had previously allowed 92 or fewer points in seven straight games. They're a modest 4-3 ATS after allowing 105 or more points. That's a lot better than Boston's 2-4 ATS record after scoring 105 or more. Looking back further finds the Celtics at a dismal 21-39 ATS their last 60 in that situation. During that stretch, Boston is also a money-burning 30-53 ATS when off a double-digit win. As we saw in the first two games, both teams are very capable defensively. Boston is now allowing 88.7 points per game, 93.3 on the road. Philadelphia is allowing 89.1, just 85.7 here at home. The matchup of two stingy teams figures to favor the 76ers. Boston is just 5-9 ATS (6-8 SU) when facing a team which allows 91 or fewer points per game. Meanwhile, even with the Game 3 loss, the 76ers are 13-7 SU/ATS when facing a team which allows 91 or fewer points per game. Desperate for a win, I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Friday evening. *10

Reason: I'm playing on LA. I won with the Thunder in Game 1. Clearly, they are a very good team. I feel the same can still be said of the Lakers though. This is still a big, talented and experienced team, one with a lot of pride. They were embarrassed in Game 1 and I expect a much better effort here. The Lakers have seen it all and they've deal with their share of blowout losses, most recently in Game 6 of the last series. They know how to bounce back. As Kobe said: ''We're a team that doesn't get down when we get blown out. We've been blown out a bunch of times this season, blown out last series a couple times. We're used to dealing with that.'' Kobe went on to say: ''Everything's fixable. It's just about making adjustments. That's really what the postseason is. 'They came out, took us out back and whooped us. It's on us to make adjustments, to make changes and come back with a better effort - and we will.'' Including the Game 7 win vs. Denver, the Lakers are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they were off a double-digit loss, going 11-4 SU when off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points. On the other hand, the Thunder are an ugly 7-17 ATS the last 24 times that they scored 105 or more points in their previous game. Teams off blowout losses of 25 or more have historically been a profitable bet in the NBA playoffs. Off the Game 1 debacle, I expect Kobe and co. to show their pride, bouncing back with a far better effort, leading to AT LEAST a cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. While I'd won with the Grizzlies earlier in the series, including Game 6 at LA, the Clippers beat me in Game 7. Off their grueling 7-game series, I expect them to be in over their heads against the rested #1 seed though. We saw what happened to the Lakers against a well-rested OKC team yesterday. Off their big Game 7 win, the Lakers got crushed by the well-rested Thunder. This is a similar situation. The Clippers are coming off an exhausting and physical series. Now, with very little time to catch their breath, they take to the road and face a well-rested, well-coached and powerful San Antonio team. That Game 7 victory was arguably the biggest in the history of the Clippers. It came on Sunday afternoon and they had to fly out here Sunday night. Prior to that, they'd been playing at LA Friday night. The Clippers are banged-up. Griffin is likely to play but he's still less than 100%. Paul and Butler will both play. Each is also less than 100%. Blake Griffin noted: "Going through a seven-game series is definitely exhausting,'' Griffin said. ''We may have some guys that are a little beat-up. That's how it is ... we can't use that as an excuse.'' Sounds like he already is, to me. The Clippers actually won here back in March. That was a game that Parker didn't play though and the Spurs have been practically unbeatable since. (The previous meeting here saw San Antonio win by 25.) While the Clippers are 5-10 ATS when off a double-digit win, the Spurs are 4-0 ATS the last four times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. They're 27-11-1 ATS against winning teams on the season and I expect them to start this series off win a blowout victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. I won with the Lakers in Game 7 vs. Denver. This is a much tougher opponent though and they'll be playing a very difficult venue. I expect the Lakers to struggle against a young powerful, hungry and well-rested Thunder team. The Thunder actually lost the last meeting vs. the Lakers, in double OT. That 4/22 game was at LA though. Given the stats, it could make OKC even more determined here. The Thunder are an outstanding 61-35 ATS the last few seasons, when facing a team which defeated them in the most recent meeting. Of course, seeing World Peace figures to motivate the Thunder and their crowd even more. You may recall that World Peace (Ron Artest) recent served a 7-game suspension for a viscous elbow to James Harden's head. The Thunder come in very well-rested. That's not a bad thing though. They were 2-0 SU/ATS this season when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. The lone time that they were at home, when playing with three or more day's rest, they won by 26, a 111-85 blowout vs. Utah. The Lakers, of course, are off a hard-fought series vs. Denver. Its possible that the Lakers could have an early edge, as they've been playing more recently. However, even if that were the case, the Thunder should warm up quickly and I expect the Lakers' more tired legs and bodies to potentially be an issue down the stretch. One might think the Lakers would be a good bet, when getting this many points. They're 0-3 ATS as road underdogs in the -6.5 to -9 range though. This season's lone meeting at OKC saw the Thunder win by a score of 100-85. A similar score won't surprise tonight. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BOSTON. Everyone saw what happened in Game 1 of this series. The Celtics were down much of the way and only won by a single point. As a result, many will want to take the points with the 76ers here, the biggest reason why the line is slightly lower on Boston for this game than it was for the opener. I like how this sets up for the Celtics though and feel that the relatively low line is providing us with excellent value. When the road team nearly wins Game 1 of a series, many expect them to come back and steal Game 2. It often goes the other way. Having come very close to winning the opener, the road team can be a little flat for the second game. They gave it everything they had in the opener and could have won, only to lose. Trying to duplicate that energy for Game 2 can be difficult. On the other hand, the home team receives a wake-up call. They know they got a bit lucky to be up 1-0 and know they have to play better in the second game. While some teams tend to let up when leading in a series, note that the Celtics are 11-6 ATS (12-5 SU) the last 17 times that they were leading in a playoff series. Even with the cover in the opener, the 76ers are just 3-5 ATS (1-7 SU) as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. They're also a surprisingly bad 14-25 ATS (15-24 SU) against teams with a winning record. They had their chance to steal a game and squandered it. Having received its wake-up call, I expect Boston to be better out of the gate this time en route to a win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANA. Both teams were impressive in their first round series. Still, not many are giving the Pacers much of a chance in this series. I feel that the enter the series a bit under-valued and that this opening game may be the perfect spot for them to step up and surprise the Heat. I played on the Heat in the opening game of the last round. They crushed the Knicks, taking the life out of them for the entire series. That was against a banged-up NY team though, one they had dominated all regular season. This Indiana team is tougher and better than the Knicks and also much better coached. I don't think the Knicks truly believed they could ever win that series. I feel the Pacers believe they have a chance. Lets not forget that this Indiana team quietly racked up 42 wins during the regular season - not all that far behind Miami's 46. Also, keep in mind that the Pacers are a commanding 16-4 since the beginning of April - only the Spurs have a better record during that stretch. The Heat had the advantage in the first two meetings of the regular season series. However, the last two meetings figure to give the Pacers plenty of confidence here. The last time that the teams met was on 3/26, at Indiana. The Pacers won by 15 points. The previous meeting was here at Miami. The Heat won that game. However, it was a battle the entire way and the final score was only 93-91. While the Heat are 8-10-1 ATS the last 19 times that they were off a double-digit win, the Pacers are 10-6 ATS when off three or more consecutive victories. They got their "wake up call" from the Magic in the opener of the last series and figure to have learned a lesson about the importance of showing up for the opening game of a series. Note that the well-coached Pacers have had an extra day of rest than the Heat have and that they're 3-1 ATS when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Indiana coach Vogel had this to say: "'I feel great. You never know how it's going to go once you get out there, but we're as prepared as we have been for any game this year and I feel good about what we can do.'' Including the outright win vs. the Heat on 3/26, the Pacers are 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as underdogs. Just as the 76ers gave the Celtics all they could handle in the opener of that series yesterday, I look for the Pacers to take this one down to the wire with a real shot at the outright upset. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. I've backed the Grizzlies each of the last two games in this series and I'm coming back with them in Game 7. Off their epic comeback in Game 1, the Clippers had a lot of momentum early in this series. Things have changed. Now, its the Grizzlies who are playing with confidence. They were already written off. Now, they're back from the dead and playing at home. That's very significant given that they're 28-8 here. This is a short turn-around between games along with a very early start time. Already, I would feel that would typically favor the home team, particularly with the Clippers hailing from the Pacific Time Zone. (Although both teams have been on the time zone this entire series, the Clippers are permanently on "West Coast Time" while the Grizzlies were just visiting.) Likely more important than the time zone factor, the short turn-around doesn't give the banged-up Clippers much time to recover. Chris Paul is a great player but he's not at 100%. Griffin is a great talent - but he's not a good shooter yet and he's also at less than 100%. The Clippers, 0-4 ATS the last four times they were tied in a playoff series, are only 10-17-1 ATS (6-22 SU) the last 28 times that they were road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. During the same stretch, the Grizzlies were 14-9-2 ATS (20-5 SU) as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. I feel that the Grizzlies are the better team right now. I believe they "smell the blood in the water" and I look for them to win this one in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. Earlier in this series, when it was 2-0 for LA, I successfully played on the Nuggets in Game 3. At the time, I noted that the betting public had jumped with both feet onto the Laker bandwagon and that many were thinking they were unbeatable again. I felt the Nuggets would be tough at home and that the Lakers were over-valued. The betting public are fickle though. Now that the Nuggets have won a couple in a row, all of a sudden they're calling the Lakers old and dysfunctional. I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle. And, while the Lakers may not be unbeatable, I do feel that they've got enough left in the tank to win Game 7 at home, covering the relatively small number along the way. The Nuggets came out on fire last time out. Before the Lakers knew it, they were down double-digits. With Kobe under the weather, overcoming that early deficit would ultimately prove to be too much for them. The Lakers back at home now though and its reasonably safe to assume that the Nuggets won't get off to the same kind of start they did in Game 6. Kobe should be healthier. Metta World Peace (Ron Artest) is back from suspension. Peace should help the Lakers establish the tempo they want to play at while significantly improving them on the defensive side of the ball. Pau Gasol should hungry and determined to show his passion, particularly after Kobe not so subtly blasted his effort. Gasol was quoted as saying: ''Everything that has happened in this series has to be behind us, whether it's good or bad. We've got to rely on aggressiveness tomorrow, on energy. We've got to want it more than they do.'' Note that the Lakers are a dominating 21-8-1 ATS (23-7 SU) the last 30 times that they were tied in a playoff series. In the end, Kobe is still the best player on the floor. He's 4-1 in Game 7's and I expect him to move to 5-1, spoiling George Karl's birthday along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Celtics will surely be hungry to close this thing out tonight. Obviously, the last thing they want to do is to have to go back to Atlanta to play Game 7. I don't expect Atlanta to just roll over though. Rather, I expect Boston to have its hand full the entire way; if the Hawks do go down, I believe that they'll do so kicking and screaming right up until the final buzzer. The last game here at Boston was indeed a blowout. The Celtics were hitting their shots at a remarkable rate out of the gate and had a 64-41 lead at halftime. However, that was the only game in this series which wasn't decided by single-digits. The other game at Boston saw the Celtics win by six. That game went to overtime. So, it was even closer than the final score suggests. Meanwhile, last game was decided by a single point. I believe that these teams are more equally matched than many others probably feel they are and I'm expecting another game which comes down to the wire. That being the case, I feel the fairly large number is providing us with very fair value. It should also be pointed out that with such a low O/U number, every point becomes a little more valuable - than say, a game which has an O/U line of 200. Many will expect the Celtics to come out with a vengeance, set on getting payback from the Game 5 loss and ending this thing once and for all. It may well happen. But, we should at least consider that the Celts are only 13-17 ATS (14-16 SU) the last 30 times that they faced a team which had defeated them in the previous meeting. So, payback is not always a certainty. Additionally, note that the Celts are also just 13-17 ATS their last 30 as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9.5 range. So, this isn't one of their best roles, either. It should be noted that the blowout in Game 4 was the game which Horford returned. Sometimes it can be hard for a team to adjust to the return of a player. Whether or not that had anything to do with Game 4 being the only lopsided game, the Hawks are getting healthier now, as Horford has a couple of games under his belt. He returned to the starting lineup last time out and had 19 points and 11 rebounds. Josh Smith who had got knocked out of Game 3 also had a double-double last time out. Coach Drew noted: "I know Josh is still having a little discomfort in his knee but he is playing through the pain. I think everybody else is fine.'' In addition to being healthier than they were, the Hawks also have no pressure on them, as they are expected to lose. Down 3-1, they were already written off. They've been here before (now 11-7 ATS in 1st round last three years) and I look for them to put up a much tougher fight than many will be expecting them too. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. We have to lay a little larger of a number because the Grizzlies are in a "must win" situation here. I feel that it will prove to be well worth it though, as I expect Memphis to respond with its very best effort. While the Clippers are in control of the series, the Grizzlies have been in every single game and could easily be the team which has the series lead. As a result, they remain confident. They won the last game here by seven points, after their memorably meltdown in the opener here. Keep in mind that the Grizzlies are 27-8 here while the Clippers are 17-18 on the road. While their chances of winning the entire series are obviously pretty slim now, I still believe this the Grizzlies are both talented and well-coached. Lets also not forget that this Memphis team beat the Spurs last playoffs and went all the way to Game 7 against the Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals. They're battle-tested and not about to just pack it in, based on a few tough losses. Mike Conley summed up the team's mindset: "It could be the last game for us. We've got to give everything we got regardless if guys are happy, if guys are not. You have got to play for one another and understand that winning is all that matters at this point. It doesn't matter how we do it. It doesn't matter who steps up or who doesn't. We have to win.'' Coach Hollins added: "We have to win one game, that's the game here at home before us and that's basically all we can worry about." I feel that Hollins' crew can and will get the victory (and cover!) and that's all I'm going to worry about too. *10

Reason: I'm playing on the CHICAGO BULLS. As you're probably aware, the Bulls season is on the line here. Banged up and still without Rose, the Bulls return home to Chicago down 3-1. While their chances of winning the entire series don't necessarily look all that promising, I expect the Bulls to be at their very best tonight. Even without Rose (and probably Noah) this team has plenty of talent and is extremely well-coached. Richard Hamilton has been on a Detroit team that was down 3-1 (vs. the Magic) and which came back to win that series. He had this to say: ''When we played Orlando, I remember Tracy McGrady made a comment saying that it feels good to be going to the second round, so we kind of took that personally. Right now, it's personal. It's not just about business. ... It's personal. This is it. You can win and continue playing, or you can go home, so you've got to make it personal.'' Coach Thibodeau had this to say: ''That's where your mental toughness, your physical toughness come into play. Hopefully, you've been building the right habits all season long to get through situations like this. Every team in the playoffs is going through the same thing. There's going to be ups and downs. You have to be resilient. You have to persevere. You have to get through things. But we have more than enough to win with. We just have to finish it off.'' The Bulls are still 36-27 ATS (48-15 SU) when laying points. The 76ers are still 9-13 ATS (7-15 SU) when getting points, including a 2-4 ATS mark as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6.5 range. Its also worth mentioning that Philadelphia is only 7-13 ATS the last 20 times that it was off three straight victories. I expect the Bulls to both "be resilient" and to "take it personally" and I look for them to bounce back with a convincing win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANA. I was happy to see the Magic battle back from a big deficit last game, as it allowed me to cash my 'over' ticket. That was at Orlando though. The fact that the Magic did fight all the way back, only to still lose, figures to be rather deflating for them too. Here at Indiana, I expect the Pacers to have learned their lesson and look for them to keep their foot on the gas pedal the entire way. One might expect the Magic to be a good bet as a big underdog like this. That hasn't been the case though. Orlando is only 1-4 ATS the last five times that it was listed as a road underdog in the +9.5 to +12 range, going just 15-27 ATS (6-36 SU) its last 42 in that role. While the Magic are also just 2-4 ATS off three straight losses, the Pacers are 9-6 ATS off three straight wins. While they didn't cover last game, the Pacers have been the vastly superior team the past few games. I backed them in the last game here and they won by 15. I expect them to "smell blood in the water" and look for another double-digit victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on UTAH. This game has several similarities to yesterday's Miami/New York contest. The Heat, listed as -8 point road favorites in that game, had a commanding 3-0 series lead. They'd won each of the first three games by double-digits, covering the spread in each case. Nearly everyone expected the Heat to complete the sweep. All that is true in this series too. The Spurs are 3-0 SU/ATS through the first three games. As I write this, they're laying -8 points. Nearly everyone expects them to complete the sweep. I had the Knicks yesterday though and I feel that the Jazz are also providing us with excellent value. I noted yesterday that the pressure was off the Knicks and that they could relax. They've already been written off. A loss here is expected. Having no pressure can help a team, as we saw with New York. As was the case for yesterday's game at MSG, its also important to note that this line is a couple of points higher than the Game 3 line. As always, every point can (and often is) be extremely valuable. One final similarity I'd like to mention about today's game with yesterday's NY/Miami contest is that the Jazz, just like the Knicks, were off their best first half of the three games. The Jazz were down by a combined 32 points at halftime for the first two games. However, they were within two for Game 3, 52-50. The Knicks were in the same boat as they had been trailing at halftime for each of the first two games but actually had a lead at halftime for Game 3. Neither the Knicks or Jazz could keep it up for the second half of Game 3. Yesterday, I noted that I felt the Knicks would fight the whole way. I also expect the Jazz to play hard the entire four quarters. With the O/U line having dropped into the 190s for the first time in this series, its also interesting to note that the Spurs are 1-6 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 195 to 199.5 range. The Jazz, on the other hand, are 12-5-1 ATS (14-4 SU) the last 18 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 195 to 199.5 range. This is still a Utah team with a lot of pride. The Jazz are still 25-9 at home, a better record than San Antionio has (23-11) on the road. I don't expect them to go down without a fight. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DENVER. I won with the Nuggets last game, the first time I'd played a game in this series. I noted that I felt everyone was jumping back on the Laker bandwagon a little too fast and that the Nuggets were going to provide a much tougher test at Denver. The Nuggets would go on win by 15, dominating nearly the entire way. Many are still in awe of Kobe and co. and don't believe that they can possibly lose two in a row. As a result, we're geting an even lower line to work with than we were for Game 3. Although a very close game is always possible, the line is now so low that the pointspread is unlikely to be a factor. I believe that's again providing us with excellent value with the home team. Game 3 exposed some of the Lakers' weaknesses. It also has given the Nuggets and their fans renewed confidence. In the past, the Lakers always counted on Phil Jackson to help them off a playoff loss. Off the blowout last game, I feel they may miss the "Zen Master." Note that LA is just 7-14 ATS when playing with "revenge." Still leading in the series, I don't expect the Lakers to be quite as desperate as many others might thing. Note that they're now just 7-10 ATS the last 17 times they were leading in a playoff series. Additionally, note that the Lakers are an ugly 7-13 ATS (9-11 SU) the last 20 times that they scored 85 or less in their last game. So, a poor offensive performance in their last outing doesn't guarantee they'll bounce back with a big game. Far from it. Lets also not forget that the Lakers are a poor 15-19 (11-22-1 ATS!) on the road. They score just 95.5 points per game on the road, allowing 99. When on the road, the Lakers allow opposing teams to hit nearly 45% of their shots. They're also just 2-5 their last seven here at Denver. Denver has long been a tough venue for opposing teams and the Nuggets are averaging 103 per game here, while shooting 47.6% from the field. With momentum on their side, I expect the Nuggets to do it again, evening up the series and covering the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NEW YORK. As you're aware, the Heat have dominated this series. They've got a commanding 3-0 lead and they've won all three games by double-digits. While I haven't played them in every game, I'm not exactly surprised by the fact that the Heat are in total control. I backed Miami in the first game, a 33-point victory. While I have yet to play on the Knicks, I feel that they're now providing us with excellent value. Everyone knows that the series is now all but mathematically over. The Heat know it. The Knicks know it. The fans and bettors know it. With that being the case, few people are willing to back the Knicks here. The majority of bettors that did feel the Knicks had a chance have already lost with them. They too are mostly unwilling to back them again. That has helped to create a very high line here. Its higher than it was for Game 3 and nearly as high as it was for Game 1, at Miami. Since getting destroyed from wire-to-wire in the first game, the Knicks have gradually played better, at least in the first half. They were down by 23 at halftime of the first game. They were down by six at halftime of the second game. By Game 3, they actually had a 4-point lead at halftime. They haven't been able to keep it together in the second half yet. However, I expect them to do just that here. As coach Mike Woodson said, ''Our backs are against the wall and we are desperately trying to make a series out of this, and the only way to do it is we've got to win Game 4 to force Game 5. And our fans deserve a win and this organization deserves a win, so we've got to go out and give it all we can.'' Miami knows New York is going to come out hungry. Udonis Haslem had this to say: 'It's going to be very tough. Obviously, they're a lot of veteran guys. They've got a lot of pride. At one point, Game 3 could have went either way. The score didn't reflect how close it was ...'' The Knicks are 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. (All four covers also resulted in outright victories.) They're also 2-1 SU/ATS when playing at home with an O/U line in the 180 to 184.5 range. The Heat are 0-2 ATS on the road, when playing with an O/U line in the 180 to 184.5 range. They're also 3-4 ATS as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. Additionally, note that Miami is only 6-10 ATS after allowing 85 or fewer points in its previous game. The pressure is off the Knicks. They're expected to lose. I believe that will help them be "loose" and allow them to play their best game. While that still may not be enough to steal a game, I do expect them to be in it the entire way, earning AT LEAST a cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on UTAH. The Spurs certainly looked dominant in the first two games at San Antonio. That dominance has helped to provide us with quite a high pointspread here. I expect a much better effort from the Jazz here at Salt Lake City though and therefore feel that the number is very generous. While they've had real trouble on the road, the Jazz are a much better team at home. They were 11-22 on the road during the season but a terrific 25-8 at home. In fact, that's a better record than San Antonio (22-11) had on the road. Not only do the Jazz score far more points here than they do on the road, they also allow significantly fewer. They outscored teams by a solid 101.9 to 95.9 margin here this season. San Antonio's Boris Diaw had this to say: ''We know the third game will be the hardest in the series" Given their excellent home record, its not that surprising to learn that the Jazz were 2-0 SU/ATS as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. These teams played twice here this season. The Spurs won the first meeting here. However, that victory came by only four points. The Jazz won the most recent meeting here, a 91-84 victory on 4/6/ Utah's Al Jefferson had this to say: "It's been a roller coaster ride all year. We've been through it and always find our way to bounce back. I think we got one more bounce back in us.'' I expect Jefferson and co. to indeed bounce back, earning AT LEAST a cover and improve to 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they played with two or more day's rest in between games. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DENVER. After the Lakers won the first two games of this series, many are starting to say they again look like champions. While its true that LA has looked very good, I think its a little too early to anoint them as Western Conference Champs. In fact, I expect them to stumble tonight. Like many teams, the Nuggets are much better at home. They're used to the high altitude here and tend to feed off their home crowd. The Nuggets were 20-13 at home this season. On the other hand, the Lakers were only 15-18 SU (11-21-1 ATS!) on the road. While the Nuggets have had some trouble at LA, they're 4-2 the last six times that they hosted the Lakers. Those four victories came by an average of 10.75 points. While the Nuggets do give up a lot points, the also score a lot. They're averaging 103.1 here at Denver (103.8 overall) while the Lakers are scoring 95.8 away from LA. The Lakers don't tend to fare all that well against teams that allow a lot of points either. After failing to cover in Game 2, they're now just 4-9 ATS against teams which allow 99 or more per game. History has proven that its practically impossible to come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs. That said, teams which are down 2-0 and favored at home for Game 3, have shown a tendency to do very well. I expect that to be the case here as the Nuggets get back into the series, covering the relatively small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. I was on the wrong side of the Grizzlies' meltdown in Game 1. A painful loss for all involved. I'm willing to come back with them again here though. While we typically have to lay a fairly high number, home teams which are down 0-1 usually seem to do pretty well with their back to the wall in Game 2. We already saw that with the Pacers. Having dropped the opener on their home floor, they came back and crushed the Magic (at least in the second half) in Game 2. I feel that the Grizzlies have the talent, experience and coach to be able to also bounce back from the Game 1 debacle with a big effort in Game 2. Off such a devastating loss, having an extra day to recover (they've had two day's rest since that game) may prove to be a good thing. In addition to the fact that I feel the Grizzlies will be the more "desperate" team, the injury to LA's Caron Butler should really be mentioned. Without Butler in there, I expect Rudy Gay to have some favorable matchups, regardless of how Del Negro decides to play it. Memphis point guard Mike Conley had this to say of his team: ''This group is very mentally tough. We've had to handle adversity all year long with injuries and guys being in and out of the lineup. This is just another test for us, another obstacle we have to overcome. I think we'll do it..." I agree with Conley. I think they'll do it too. More importantly, I expect them to also cover the medium-sized number. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. As you're likely aware, Game 1 of this series was a thriller. The Mavericks almost the entire way only to be beaten by a Kevin Durant jumped with 1.5 seconds left. As that resulted in an easy cover for Dallas, many will be likely to back the defending champs here. I've had success over the years taking a different approach to these games. For starters, note that we're getting a lower line to work with on the Thunder here than was available for Game 1. Next and perhaps most importantly, I feel the Thunder will be the more focused team. The Mavs had their chance to steal Game 1 and they couldn't take advantage of the opportunity. The Mavs even made 10 3-pointers, hitting better than 45% from beyond the arc - and still coulnd't do it. While they're a veteran team, losing at the buzzer tends to cause some players to be in "what if" mode, which in turn can make re-focusing more difficult. On the other hand, the Thunder have "had their wake-up call." They also have some really positive momentum after their leader hit the game-winner in such dramatic fashion. I also feel the Thunder are the superior squad. The Mavs are still the champs (for a little while longer) and have some great and experienced players. They're not the same team as last year though - while the Thunder are only getting stronger. They're 27-7 at home. The Mavs are 13-21 away from Dallas. Now playing their fourth straight home game, note that the Thunder are an outstanding 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played their previous three at home. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANA. As you likely know, the Pacers lost the first game of this series. I do NOT expect a repeat performance this evening and am not willing to write Indiana off yet. As Danny Granger noted: "We lost a game. We watched it. It's not the end of the world. It's a seven-game series. We don't want to overreact.'' Granger's coach, Frank Vogel had similar comments: ''It's not in my nature to panic. It's not in this team's nature to panic. The answers are clear. Our deficiencies last night are very fixable. Things we've done all year. We're still a very confident bunch.'' Vogel continued: "We didn't make some shots we normally make. We didn't make free throws like we normally make them. But we just didn't share the basketball like we've done all year to get us the record that we have. We're very dialed into what we need to do. We feel good ... " While the Pacers are in desperation mode, the Magic may well be somewhat "content" with having already earned a road win. The Pacers are a commanding 11-2 SU the last 13 times that they were off an "upset" loss. I expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Clippers are in the playoffs. That's a big accomplishment in itself. They're up against a formidable opponent though. Playing at a very difficult venue, I expect them to stumble this evening. These teams met three times this season. Each game saw was won by the home team. In each case, the home team also covered the spread. The Grizzlies won the lone meeting here at Memphis by nine points. It could have easily been more lopsided. The Grizzlies hit 50% of their shots while holding the Clippers to a mere 40.5% from the field. Including the victory on 4/9, the Grizzlies have won 21 of 30 as a host in this series, including four of the last five. That comes as no surprise, given the way that the Grizzlies play here. They were 26-7 here on the season, including a perfect 11-0 mark to close out the season. While the Grizzlies enter on a winning streak, the Clippers have lost three of four, the lone win coming vs. New Orleans. They were 16-17 on the road. That includes a 4-8 SU and 4-7-1 ATS mark as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. The Grizzlies, who allowed just 76 points their last game, tend to be at their best when playing sound defense. They're 10-2-1 ATS (12-1 SU!) the last 13 times that they were off a game in which they allowed 85 or less. The Grizzlies' defense figures to frustrate the still relatively inexperienced Clippers. Memphis averages 9.5 steals per game at home (best in the league) and also blocks more than five shots per game here. As LA guard Randy Foye noted: ''They try to muck everything up. They try to make everything chaotic. They try and pressure you and make you do things you don't want to do." This is all new for many of the Clippers. The Grizzlies have been here before. They know the importance of taking care of business on their home floor and I expect them to do just that here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. The Knicks actually enter this game as the hotter team. Miami has been in cruise control mode though and playing at far less than full strength. The Heat should have their full lineup back in tact here, at least the "Big 3." I feel they're the stronger team and also that they've got a statement to make here. As you likely remember, the Heat stumbled against Dallas in the finals last season. They're on a mission this season and I expect them to remind everyone of that this afternoon. While the Heat expect and hope to have both Bosh and Wade back in the lineup, this team has had plenty of time to become familiar with each other. Having them return should only make them better and isn't likely to pose any chemistry problems. Perhaps as they're not as familiar with each other, the Knicks don't always seem to function as well as a unit though. Stars Stoudemire and Anthony in particular, haven't looked exactly in synch with each other in recent games. Keep in mind that Stoudemire has only played four games over the last month due to a back injury. Note that New York center Tyson Chandler reportedly couldn't practice Friday due to the flu. As of this writing, Mike Woodson says there is a "strong possibility" that Chandler won't play in Game 1 because of the flu. Chandler has arguably been NY's MVP this season and is a candidate for defensive player of the year. If he can't play or isn't 100%, I feel it will prove to be a real blow. Personally, I won't be surprised if he plays. However, as I said, even if he's less than 100%, it can hurt. Of course, playing in Miami also figures to be a big boost for the Heat - and they know they can't squander homecourt advantage by getting upset in the first game. While the Knicks have been outscored on the road this season, the Heat are outscoring opponents by an average score of 100.4 to 89.5 on this floor this season. The Heat dominated the regular season series. They're were 3-0 SU/ATS against the Knicks and both games here at Miami resulted in double-digit victories. I expect another convincing victory here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. If things had gone differently, this could have been a very big game. That's not the case though, as the 76ers have clinched a playoff spot while the Bucks have now officially been eliminated. In situations like this, it can sometimes be a little tricky to judge the motivation levels of the teams involved. That said, in this particular case, I expect Milwaukee to be the more "hungry" team. True, the 76ers are still alive for the 7th spot. (They'd need to win both remaining games have NY lose one.) However, that would only mean playing Miami instead of Chicago. Given that they were 0-4 against Miami, including two losses of 20 or more points, they may actually prefer to finish in 8th to face the Bulls. (They were 1-2 against Chicago. They beat the Bulls by 16 once and both losses came by single-digits.) Having now clinched a playoff spot, don't be surprised if the 76ers give Andre Iguodala (already listed as out) and Elton Brand the day off here. In fact, Coach Collins indicated he was also "leaning towards resting Lou Williams." Whoever is in the lineup, don't be surprised if the 76ers experience a bit of a letdown here. Collins was quoted as saying: "...I am so proud of my guys. I really, really am. They answered the bell and when I looked up there with one minute to go and I knew we were going to be in the playoffs, it was a very satisfying feeling.'' Elton Brand added: "Now we can breathe a little easier. We could have beaten Milwaukee at Milwaukee, but why when you don't have to.'' Brand's comments very likely didn't sit too well with the Bucks - who should be motivated to prove that they could/would have beaten the 76'ers, had this game meant something. While its possible they'll be without Monta Ellis, the Bucks should have other reasons to be motivated too. If they win both remaining games, they'll finish at .500. That would allow them to avoid their seventh losing season in eight years. Additionally, this is the Bucks' home finale. So, they should want to at least give their fans a final victory. The Bucks are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were a host in this series. In fact, they're an extremely profitable 37-11-2 ATS their last 50 games against teams from the Atlantic Division. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Admittedly, the Grizzlies haven't been blowing out too many teams lately. Even Memphis coach Lionel Hollins noted as much. He was quoted as saying: "We had a stretch where played a lot of good teams -- Oklahoma City, Dallas twice, at Miami, the Clippers here at home -- and those are the kind of games the guys get up for. Then after that, we've been in a stretch against a bunch of teams that aren't in the playoffs. We haven't been as focused to go out and dominate them, but we've won the games." While they're again facing a non-playoff team, I believe that the Grizzlies will be focused to "go out and dominate" this one. Each of the Grizzlies' last two home games came after the Grizzlies had played the previous day. That's not the case here though, as it will be Cleveland which is playing the second of back-to-back games. While the Grizzlies had yesterday off, the Cavaliers played (lost by 16) at San Antonio. Note that the Grizzlies are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the last four times that they played a home game, after having had the previous day off. Meanwhile, note that the Cavs are 0-2 ATS the last two times that they played the second of b2b games, losing by 16 each time. Going back further finds them at 5-8 ATS (2-11 SU) the last 13 times that they played the second of b2b games. Overall the Cavs are 10-21 on the road while the Grizzlies are 24-7 at home. Currently in 5th in the West, the Grizzlies know they need to win here to keep their hopes (of having homecourt advantage in the first round) alive. They're 5-1 SU/ATS against teams from the Central and 10-5-1 ATS (13-3 SU) against teams from the East overall. Knowing they could really use a one-sided win, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bucks are obviously very disappointed with last night's effort, an outright loss at Washington. I feel they may have been caught looking past the Wizards to tonight's game though. That was costly, as they badly could have used that win. As Milwaukee coach Scott Skiles noted after last night's loss: "Wrong time to have a bad game. It's an absolute must-win for us. We have to find a way to get that game." That should have the Bucks desperate for a victory tonight, to make up for last night's setback. While beating the surging Pacers, at Indiana, won't be easy. The Bucks know that if they could find a way to do so, hat they've got a couple of winnable games on deck - followed by a showdown vs. Philadelphia. Needless to say, a win here would be huge for them. This will be the third time that the Bucks will have faced the Pacers. Both previous meetings were at Milwaukee. Each time, the Bucks had the misfortune of having played the night before, which is the case again tonight. This is quite a different back-to-back spot though. When the Bucks faced the Pacers on 3/24, not only were they playing the second of back-to-back games, they were also playing their third game in three days and their fourth game in five days. When the Bucks faced the Pacers on 4/13, they were playing their third game in four days. Tonight's back-to-back spot is different though. That's because prior to last night's game, the Bucks had three days off, the longest break they'll have until their finished the season. The point that I'm trying to make is that this isn't as bad a b2b spot as either of the previous ones. While they've admittedly been red hot of late, winning as an underdog last time out, the Pacers are still just 17-22 ATS when laying points. They're also only 5-7 ATS when off an "upset" win. While they've had some trouble as a host in the series, the Bucks are actually a profitable 5-1-1 the last seven times that they played here at Indiana, 4-0-1 ATS the last five. A closer look reveals that the last four meetings here have ALL been decided by four or fewer points. They had margins of just 1, 4, 2 and 3 points. I feel this one could easily come down to the wire once again and am grabbing the points with what I expect will be an extremely hungry Milwaukee team. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Pacers were better than the 76ers last night. Indiana hammered Minnesota. Philadelphia lost at Orlando. I expect the 76ers to have the advantage tonight though. As noted, both teams played last night. However, the schedule is a little easier for the 76ers. Prior to last night's game, they'd had two days off, having last played on the 13th. On the other hand, the Pacers played on the 13th AND the 14th. True, last night's game was such a blowout that the starters were able to get some rest and didn't see that many minutes. However, Indiana will still be playing its fourth game in the past five days here while Philadelphia will only be playing its third game in the past five. The Pacers are looking to lock up the third seed. However, this game is arguably more important for the 76ers, as they are fighting just to make it to the playoffs. A look at the season series shows that the home team has won both games. The Pacers won 111-94 when they hosted the 76ers. However, the 76ers won 96-86 when the teams met here at Philadelphia. It should be noted that these teams will face each other again at Indiana in a few days. Knowing that and knowing this is their home finale (they play their final five on the road) I expect the 76ers to come through with their best effort, closing out the season here with a win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. As you probably know, these teams faced each other last night. Playing at home, the Nuggets won by a score of 101-86. Tonight's rematch is in Houston though and I expect the revenge-minded Rockets to bounce back with a badly needed victory. Keep in mind that the Nuggets are 14-15 on the road. The Rockets are 20-10 at home. Even Denver coach George Karl acknowledged that we should see a different Houston team tonight. After last night's win he was quoted as saying: ''They're going to play with an anger and an urgency that their season is in trouble in they lose tomorrow..." The Rockets actually had a lead going into the second half last night but were burned by turnovers and Denver fast break points in the second half. I expect them to have learned their lesson, in that regard. Chase Budinger was quoted as saying: "We just need to get back. This was a good learning lesson for us just because they got so many fastbreak points on us. Coming into Monday, we're going to play them again, just knowing how fast they like to play how quick they get the ball up, our ones, twos and threes have to get back and stop their transition because that's where they really killed us Sunday.'' The Rockets are already 2-0 this month, when playing the second of back-to-back games. They won outright at Chicago on 4/2 and did it again, at Portland, on 4/9. The Nuggets have only played the second of back-to-back games once in April. They lost by 15, at Golden State, on 4/7. Expect homecourt to be the difference as the Rockets bounce back, covering the relatively small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Admittedly, the Bobcats aren't much of a team. That said, this is an excellent spot for them and I feel that they're providing us with excellent value. Charlotte had yesterday off. Boston has been pretty good lately. The Celtics are also old and banged-up though. That makes this very difficult scheduling situation even more difficult. The Celtics won at New Jersey yesterday. The previous day, they lost at Toronto. With a division game against New York on deck, it may well be difficult to focus on lowly Charlotte. Keep in mind that the Celtics are playing their third game in three days. Going back further finds that this is their fifth game in the past six days and their seventh game in the past nine days. Since 4/4, they've played nine games. Despite that brutal schedule, the Celtics are still being asked to lay a very large number. Note that they're only 6-11 ATS the past 17 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. The Bobcats are 13-7 ATS the last 20 meetings in this series. Five straight meetings between these teams have been decided by 10 points or less and those games were decided by an average or less than six points. The Bobcats even won two of them outright. I expect the Bobcats to step up and to give their road-weary guests all they can handle once again. *10

Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. This is a very big game for both teams. I expect the home team to have the advantage though. After a very successful (4-0) road trip, which included wins at Chicago and LA, the Rockets returned home only to stumble against Utah. That makes this game more critical than ever for them. Kyle Lowry noted: "We had a great road trip and had a little bit of a letdown but we will bounce back.." One could argue that the Suns need this game more, as they're further behind in the standings. However, I really don't feel the Suns actually believe - they'd written off the playoffs long ago and their remaining schedule is very tough. I do feel that the Rockets feel they can do it. Of course, the Suns aren't going to admit to that - and I'm not saying that they're going to go down without a fight. Just that this game is no more important to them than it is to Houston. Even with the loss vs. Utah, their second straight setback here, the Rockets are still 20-9 at home. On the other hand, the Suns are only 13-17 on the road. Note that Houston hasn't lost three straight at home in more than a year. Given the home/road records, its no surprise that the Rockets lost badly at Phoenix but hammered the Suns here at Houston. I expect another victory for the Rockets here, as they bounce back and cover the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHICAGO. Its payback time on primetime. The Knicks managed to eke out an OT win over the Bulls on Sunday. However, that was at MSG and it took Carmello's best game since coming to New York. With tonight's game shifting to Chicago, I expect a much different result. The Knicks are 10-17 on the road. The Bulls are 22-6 at home. The Bulls are a perfect 11-0 SU when off an "upset" loss, going a profitable 8-3 ATS in those game. They're also an impressive 52-36-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing with revenge from an earlier loss. That includes a 7-4 ATS mark their last 11 in that situation. After the last loss, Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau noted: "We should be able to overcome all of that stuff. You just have to do the right things. We do the right things, you're not going to have those problems. You're not going to have those turnovers. Simple plays: Protect the ball, keep the ball moving, quick decisions, hit the first open man, sustain your spacing, protect the ball, tuck it on the catch, fight for your space, get your space. Simple." Derrick Rose returned last time out, giving Thibodeau his full regular starting lineup for just the 11th time out. With a game under his belt and now motivated by being outplayed by Carmello, I won't be surprised if we see a big game from Rose. When asked about his groin injury and about the loss at MSG, Rose was quoted as saying: "I didn't think of my groin. I'm not worried about it. My thing is just trying to get better. Defensively, we weren't there. Hopefully next time we play them we come out with a sense of urgency." With the Knicks still missing Stoudemire (and Lin) I expect the stronger, more complete and revenge-minded Bulls to "come out with a sense of urgency" and for that to result in a one-sided victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. This is a bigtime revenge situation for the Heat as they were thrashed 91-72 in Boston last week. Note that the Heat returned home to win three of its next four here, where they hold a league best 24-3 mark. Note that Miami is outscoring teams by a commanding 101.5 to 90.3 margin here. The Heat make 48.2% of their shots here. Opposing teams make just 42.4% of theirs. While the Heat are only 7-6 ATS (9-4 SU) when playing with revenge, avenging a loss against the hated Celtics is a different matter. I expect an extremely motivated effort. LeBron James noted: "We'll be better prepared. They beat us. They dominated us in that game. But we'll be better prepared." While they've admittedly played well of late and while did follow up a big win at Indiana with another big win vs. Philly, the Celtics are typically not strong, when off a big victory. In fact, they're a terrible 26-51 ATS the last 77 times that they were off a double-digit win. The Celtics are also 0-4 ATS the last four times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. The Heat, on the other hand, are 5-3 ATS (7-1 SU) as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. I expect Lebron and co. to be "better prepared" this time around, improving on those stats in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. I avoided the Blazers in their last game, thankfully, as I didn't trust them on the road off their big win at Dallas the previous night. I've successfully played on the Blazers more than once recently. I backed them when they beat Dallas outright on 4/6 and I also had them when they hammered the Nets by 13 on 4/4. I believe this will prove to be another good spot for them to earn a big win. While the Blazers had last night off, this time its the Rockets who come in off a road win the previous night - they won at Sacramento late last night. They're playing the final leg of a road trip here while also having had to travel over the Easter weekend. Having already achieved more success than even they probably could have though possible (they're 3-0 including wins at Chicago and LA) I feel they'll be ripe for a letdown here. That should not be the case for the revenge-minded Blazers. Houston has already beaten them twice this season and they should be out for some payback. While the Rockets are 2-3 ATS as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, the Blazers are 5-3 ATS as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Considering that the Blazers were laying -8 when these teams faced each other here in February, given the scheduling situation, I feel tonight's much lower line is providing excellent value. *10

Reason: I'm playing on UTAH. These teams just met yesterday, at San Antonio. The Spurs won that one by 10, 114-104. Tonight's rematch is in Utah though, a significant different story. While the Spurs have a far superior home record, the Jazz actually have a much better record here at Salt Lake City than the Spurs do on the road. The Jazz are 20-8 at home. The Spurs are 17-10 on the road. Popovich and the Spurs continue to rest players and its fully possible (if not likely) that at least one of the regulars will be out again here. Popovich often doesn't even tell the players who will play and who will sit until close to tipoff, prompting Parker to note: "We all have to be ready." The Jazz should be hungry here and they should believe that they can get the victory. As center Al Jefferson noted: "Our fans are going to be ready to help us out but the second half proved that we can play with these guys ..." While they lost the earlier meeting here - it was close the entire way. San Antonio led by three at halftime and eventually won by four. Tonight, I expect the revenge-minded Jazz to put it all together, improving to 4-0 ATS when playing at home with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Obviously, the Hawks have been much better than the Bobcats this season. They won again last night while the Bobcats lost again last night. I feel this number will prove to be too high though, as I'm expecting the Bobcats to be the more motivated squad. As noted, the Bobcats lost last night. However, they only lost by five and that was on the road, at Milwaukee. They've now quietly covered three of the last four. As noted, the Hawks won last night. However, they only won by five at home vs. Detroit, failing to cover as large favorites. The Hawks haven't shown an ability of late to blow teams out, when they were playing the second of back-to-back games. They're just 5-5 the last 10 times that they played the second of b2b games and NONE of the five victories have come by greater than seven points. In addition to the fact that they rarely seem to "win big" when the playing the second of back to back games, I feel the Hawks could easily get caught overlooking the Bobcats in this spot. They've been winning, so are feeling good about themselves. They also just blew out these same Bobcats and have won all three season meetings. Additionally, they get a rare 3-day break after this, before facing Boston on the 11th. Don't be surprised if they're minds are already partly back home celebrating Easter with their families. On the other hand, the Bobcats should be somewhat hungry, as they were embarrassed in the 4/4 game at Atlanta, the second straight time that the Hawks have blown them out. Those games were both at Atlanta though - and the game here was decided by just six points. That game wasn't really all that long ago (1/6/2012) but the line was only Atlanta -1.5. Now, the Hawks are laying 6x as many points! While they didn't cover the +1.5 in the earlier meeting, Charlotte is still an impressive 11-4 SU/ATS the last 15 times that it was a host in this series. Only once in those 15 games did the Hawks win by greater than 10 points. All things considered, we're excellent value with the revenge-minded home dog. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. I feel the Blazers have started to turn the corner of late and I successfully backed them in last game. They won by double-digits. They're now 3-1 ATS their last four games. Their last road game resulted in a 1-point loss at LA. Since the coaching change, their four game have come at LA vs the Clippers, at LA vs. the Lakers, at Oklahoma City and at Chicago. None of those are easy venues, obviously. Yet, only the loss at OKC got out of hand and they even won outright at Chicago. Given the Mavericks struggles when playing the front end of a back-to-back set, I feel the Blazers have an excellent shot at another upset here. Many handicappers focus only on how teams do when playing the second of back-to-back games. This is certainly important. However, it can also be valuable to pay attention to how teams do, when playing the front end of back-to-back games. Dallas is a team which has NOT performed well in this situation. Indeed, the champs are a terrible 2-10 ATS the last 12 times that they played the front end of b2b games, including a dismal 1-7 ATS (0-8 SU!) record the last eight times that they were in that situation. This season's earlier meeting between these teams was here and was only decided by three points. With Memphis, a team the Mavs just played on deck tomorrow, don't be surprised if Dallas has its hands full the entire way here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHICAGO. With or without Derrick Rose in the lineup, I expect the Bulls, 21-6 at home, to take care of business tonight. The Celtics are 11-14 on the road and they're off an extremely hard-fought loss vs. the Spurs last night. Trailing by as many as 17, the Celtics battled all the way back. However, they still lost by a single point. Those type of losses can be difficult to bounce back from, and that figures to be particularly true for a Boston squad which has really struggled when playing a road game, after having played the previous night. Chicago coach Thibodeau had this to say about his club: "Right now I'm disappointed in the way our team is playing. One thing I know about this league is that things change quickly.

Reason: I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the RUN-LINE. (+1.5 Runs.) With the Dodgers listed as mid-sized road favorites, we're able to get a very reasonable price on the run-line option with the Padres. In a game that could well be low-scoring - games at Petco are famous for being low-scoring and this game has an O/U line of 6u20 - every extra run becomes even more valuable. That said, I feel the run-line is offering us excellent value here. Kershaw, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, is obviously tough - and he's enjoyed plenty of success against the Padres over his career. They've also seen him a lot though, so at least have some familiarity. Volquez, on the other hand, has only made one start against the Dodgers and that came back in April of 2008. For what it's worth, Volquez was dominant (1.29 ERA) in that game. He allowed just one run and only three hits, striking out seven in seven innings, en route to an 8-1 victory. Volquez, a former 17-game winner, should be thrilled to come over from hitter-friendly Cincinnati to pitcher-friendly San Diego. He should be also be highly motivated to get off to a good start in front of his new fans. In getting the opening day start, he was quoted as saying: "It is very exciting for me. It's my second time doing it and it's a big honor for me. To come to a new team and have them pick me feels good." Note that Volquez has made three career starts here and that he allowed two runs or less in ALL three. (He won two and all three were decided by a single run.) The Reds were 10-6 in Volquez's 16 April starts. While I won't be at all surprised if the Padres continue that winning trend, I'll gladly grab the extra +1.5 runs to make my chances of cashing even better. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. Despite having lost vs. Utah here on Monday, the Blazers, who had yesterday off, have been playing better since the coaching change. They could use a "blowout" win to really seal the deal and to give the team its swagger back. This one sets up well for that. The Nets are off a late hard fought loss at LA last night. They're now playing the final game of a West Coast road trip. Having already achieved some success on this trip and having already left it all on the floor last night, I feel they'll be ripe for going through the motions here. The Blazers' loss against Utah came when they were the team playing the second of b2b games. Prior to that, they'd won by double-digits, their second straight cover. Note that the Blazers are 9-3 SU/ATS the last dozen times that they were off an upset loss. While they did manage a cover at LA last night, the Nets are still an ugly 10-17-2 ATS (5-24 SU) the last 29 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. During the same stretch, the Blazers were 16-11 ATS (21-6 SU) as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. The Blazers are 12-2 the last 14 times that they were host in this series. With the schedule and situation in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Yesterday, I successfully played on Memphis. Playing at Oklahoma City, the underdog Grizzlies won outright. In my analysis of that game, I cited reasons why I felt that the Thunder were in a difficult scheduling spot and why I felt that the Grizzlies would be more focused and/or motivated. Tonight, however, the shoe is on the other foot. This time, its the Grizzlies who are the home favorites, laying the same number of points that they were getting yesterday. This time, its the Grizzlies who are off a big win, while their opponent had the day off. Yesterday, it was the Grizzlies who were playing with "triple revenge." This time, its the Warriors who are doing so. Yesterday, I noted that although the Grizzlies had lost all three season meetings with the Thunder but that those games had been close, decided by an average of only five points. Once again, the shoe is on the other foot tonight. This time, its the Warriors who are playing with "triple-revenge," as Memphis has beaten them all three times. Also, as was the case in the Thunder/Grizzlies situation last night, the games in this series have been close. In fact two of three meetings, including the one here at Memphis, have been decided by a single point. Lastly, it should be noted that this is worse than a typical back-to-back situation for Memphis. For starters, a win at Oklahoma City is rare - and could make them ripe for a letdown. Additionally, this will also be the Grizzlies fourth game in the past five days AND they'll also be playing again tomorrow night, a big game against the defending champion Mavericks.That's followed by a showdown vs. the Heat. So, just as it was easy for OKC to overlook Memphis last night, it may well be easy for the Grizzlies to overlook the Warriors here. Including the earlier cover here, the Warriors are 15-9 ATS on the road. That includes a 4-2 ATS mark as a road underdog in the +6.5 to +9 range. In another game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing the generous points. *10

I'm playing on KENTUCKY. I like and respect this Kansas team. While I didn't play a side in the Jayhawks' game vs. Ohio State, I did successfully back the Jayhawks against North Carolina. That said, I feel they'll be in over their heads here. Indeed, this Kentucky team may be among the best seen in many years.

The Wildcats didn't even play their best against Louisville. Yet, even though Louisville arguably played very well, the Wildcats were essentially in control the entire way. Although they failed to cover (by half a point) the Wildcats were up double-digits much of the way and still won by eight. Of course, an 8-point win would get the cover here, as the line is lower than it was for the Louisville game.

You've probably heard that every starter on this Kentucky team will one day be playing in the NBA. While I guess that remains to be seen, there's no denying that this team is absolutely loaded with talent.

Despite failing to cover vs. Louisville, the Wildcats are still 9-4-1 ATS the past few seasons in NCAA Tournament games. During that stretch, Kansas is 5-6 in its tournament games.

As you may be aware, these teams faced each other back in November, at Madison Square Garden. The Jayhawks were able to hang around for the first half. However, in the end, Kentucky proved to be too much. The Wildcats pulled away from a 10-point victory. At the time, the Wildcats were still a fairly young team and learning how to play together.

Even at the time, Kentucky coach John Calipari noted: "We don't believe we have to truly play together yet. It's not talent that wins, it's good teams that win. This is not a good team yet. We're not bad, but we're not a good team yet. We've got good players, but we broke off every play." Obviously, they've come a long way since then.

Some may talk about the 'revenge' factor giving Kansas added motivation. However, in a game of this magnitude, both teams should be as motivated as is possible. So, I don't expect 'revenge' from the earlier meeting to be a factor. If anything, its Calipari who who will be looking for some payback, as he's still searching for his first championship - and it was these same Jayhawks which came back to beat his Memphis team in the 2008 Championship game.


Including the earlier victory, Kentucky is 3-0 SU/ATS its last three against Big-12 teams. On the other hand, Kansas is 0-2 SU/ATS its last two against the SEC.

Ultimately, I expect Kentucky's superior talent to prove to be the difference. Having blown the lead in 2008, Calipari makes sure his team keeps the pedal to the metal the whole way here, leading to a comfortable win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ORLANDO. The Nuggets are off a victory. The Magic are off consecutive losses. However, I look for the Magic to be the team which emerges victorious (both SU and ATS) here. The Nuggets' recent victory came at Charlotte. At 7-43, the Bobcats have by far the worst record in the league. So, Denver's win needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Even with that victory, Denver is still just 4-10 ATS its last 14 games. Note that Denver missed 15 of 17 from 3-point range and had 25 turnovers against the Bobcats. That type of effort won't get it done here. The Magic have been facing tougher competition recently. Their two losses came against the surging Knicks (at MSG) and then against Dallas, the defending champs. They're still a solid 7-5 ATS their last dozen games though. While the Nuggets are now 13-12 away from Denver, the Magic are 18-9 here at Orlando. True, Denver does score more points than Orlando. However, the Magic are much better defensively. Orlando allows 92.3 points per game, 91.4 at home. Denver allows 102 points per game, 103.4 on the road. That's significant as the Magic tend to dominate "defensively-challenged" teams. In fact, they're a commanding 64-18 SU (46-34-2 ATS) the past few seasons, against teams which allow 99 or more points per game. That includes a 2-0 SU/ATS mark their last two against such teams, 6-1 on the season. Speaking of "domination," the Magic are also 20-3 as a host in this series. That includes a 15-1 SU and 11-3-2 ATS mark the last 16 meetings here. The Magic haven't lost three in a row since January. The last time that they lost two in a row, they responded with a double-digit victory over Phoenix. On the other hand, the Nuggets are 0-6 the last six times they were off a victory. The Magic are healthier and I expect them to also be "hungrier." They're 7-4 SU/ATS when off an "upset" loss and 8-2 ATS (9-1 SU) the last 10 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on KENTUCKY. I respect Louisville. They're obviously well-coached. They've also got some talent and they play hard. Regulars will recall that I backed the Cardinals in their Big East Final victory. However, this is a different kind of beast that they'll be dealing with now. The Wildcats are much more dangerous offensively than the Cardinals. The Wildcats score 77.9 points per game and hit 48.8% of their shots. On the other hand, Louisville averages 68.4 points, while hitting 42.5% of its shots. Obviously, those numbers are significantly different from each other. Louisville supporters might come back and argue that Kentucky may be better offensively but that the Cardinals are better defensively. However, that's not even true. Yes, the Cardinals are indeed excellent defensively. However, Kentucky is arguably even better. The Cardinals allow 60.8 points per game. The Wildcats are slightly better. They allow 60.6. The Cardinals allow opposing teams to shoot just 38% from the field, the third best mark in the entire country. However, the Wildcats have them beat there too. They're holding opposing teams to a mere 37.5% from the field , the very best mark in the entire country. While they won by "only" seven when these teams faced each other on New Year's Eve, the Wildcats are still a solid 6-2 SU/ATS the last eight in the series. (The beat the Cardinals by 15 the previous season.) While the Cardinals have enjoyed a great run, I feel it comes to an end here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I won with the Bucks in their last game. That was a home game though and they were only laying -2 points. Now, they're playing on the road and laying more than twice that many. I feel that's providing us with outstanding value on what should be a highly motivated Cleveland squad. The Cavaliers have certainly struggled of late - a big part of the reason for the large number. They should be desperate to snap their skid tonight though. Added motivation stems from the fact that they're playing with "double-revenge," having lost both of this season's meetings with the Bucks. Note that the game here was decided by a single point, a 113-112 Milwaukee victory in February. Now, a little over six weeks later, the Bucks find themselves laying a much larger number. True, the Bucks have had the past couple of days off. However, note that they're only 2-3 SU/ATS when playing with two day's off in between games. Also, note that they're 0-2 ATS as a road favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. Both losses came outright, too. On the other hand, the Cavs are 4-2 ATS when listed as a home underdog in the +3.5 to +6 range. While the Bucks have been strong at home for years, they're only 11-16 on the road. They're getting outscored by a 96.8 to 95.5 margin in those games. They're just 43-70 on the road the past 2+ seasons. They'll be fortunate to win this game. Asking them to cover this many points is asking too much. *10 (Best Bet)

Reason: I'm playing on LA. Its true that the Thunder are a very good team and that they have a superior overall record. However, its also true that the Lakers' home record (20-4) remains significantly superior to Oklahoma City's 16-8 mark on the road. That said, I feel the Lakers are providing us with excellent value here. The Lakers are outscoring opponents by a 97.5 to 89.1 margin here at LA this season. The Lakers hit 47.4% of their shots at home while holding opposing teams to only 41.3% of theirs. Meanwhile, the Thunder are outscoring opponents by a far less significant margin on the road, 99.7 to 99.2. They shoot 45.4% on the road while opposing teams shoot 43.6%. Going back further finds OKC at 67-50 on the road the past 2+ seasons while the Lakers are 97-26 at home. The Thunder pounded the Lakers on 2/23, this season's lone meeting. However, that was at OKC. Note that the Lakers are 50-24 the last few seasons when attempting to avenge an earlier loss, 10-6 their last 16 in that situation. The Thunder did defeat the Lakers here once last spring. However, that was the first time that the Thunder had ever won here (since moving from Seattle to OKC) and the Lakers are still a commanding 11-1 the last 12 series meetings here. The Thunder are off a big 109-95 win at Portland on Tuesday. However, note that they're a dismal 5-12 ATS (9-8 SU) when off a game in which they score 105 or more points. While the Lakers haven't been very good at the betting window of late, unlike their usual home games, they don't need to cover a large number here. Ultimately, I look for the homecourt to be the difference as the revenge-minded Lakers remind the Thunder and the rest of the league, that they're still a force to be reckoned with. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Bobcats have both the venue and the schedule in their favor. Yet, they're still getting a solid handful of points. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. The T-Wolves lost at Memphis last night. This will be the 10th different city they played in over their last 10 games - 9 road games and one at home. After playing all those big road games against Western Conference opponents - and with former player Kevin Garnett and the Celtics on deck, I feel it will be easy to get caught looking past lowly Charlotte. Note that in addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, the T-Wolves will be playing their ninth game since March 15th. On the other hand, the Bobcats had yesterday off and will be playing just their seventh game, during the same period. While its easy to pick on the Bobcats, keep in mind that the T-Wolves are a dismal 6-12 ATS when laying points, 0-1 ATS as a road favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. Additionally, they're only 4-12 SU when playing the second of b2b games. The Bobcats, who play with revenge from a February loss at Minnesota, are 6-1 the last seven times that they were a host in this series. The lone loss came by six points. In fact, four of seven meetings here have been decided by six or less. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all those generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. While they didn't cover the spread last time out, the Blazers did erase a 7-point halftime deficit to earn the SU victory. Clearly, they've been playing better since the coaching change. I expect them to be at their best again tonight. The Blazers have now won back-to-back home games. As they're catching a small handful of points here, note that each of those game was decided by four or fewer points. Also, note that the Blazers are a lucrative 30-21-1 ATS the past 52 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. The Blazers went into Chicago and beat the Bulls by double-digits in their first game after the coaching change. The next game came vs. these same Thunder, at Oklahoma City. Off the big win at Chicago, the coaching change and emotion caught up with the Blazers in that one and they were blown out. They've had plenty of time to adjust to the change now though and are getting to face the Thunder here in the Pacific Northwest instead. Big difference. Not only are the Blazers much better at home but they're also 7-3 the last 10 times that they were a host in this series. A closer look reveals that two of those losses came by four points or less, too. In other words, they'd be 9-1 ATS if getting +4.5 or better in all those games. Obviously, the Thunder are a very good team. However, this is a tough spot for them. They're off a big win vs. Miami and they've got the Lakers on deck, followed by the Bulls. With all those top-tier opponents in their heads, it may be hard to fully focus on the task at hand here. Note that the Thunder are only 6-12 ATS the last 18 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, 1-3 ATS their last four in that role. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The fact that the Hawks had last night off, while the Bucks played last night, is working in our favor here, as the line could easily be higher. I believe that's providing us with strong value on what should be a highly motivated Milwaukee squad. The Bucks are off a loss at New York last night and this is indeed a bit of a tough scheduling spot. However, they do get the next two day's off - and their next five games come against Cleveland, Memphis, Washington, Cleveland and Charlotte. Only Memphis is a playoff team out of that group - and the Grizzlies are from the opposite conference. In other words, this is arguably the "biggest" game that the Bucks will play for awhile. Knowing they have the next two day's off to "recover," I expect the "revenge-minded" Bucks to go all out for the win here. As noted, the Hawks had yesterday off. However, they'd also played a game that went to FOUR OT periods the previous day. So, they may still be a little tired from that marathon. Plus, unlike Milwaukee, the Hawks play tomorrow night. They'll be facing Chicago, too. Not only are the Bulls the top team in the league, they also beat the Hawks in the most recent meeting. More importantly, they were the team which knocked the Hawks out of the playoffs last season, a hard-fought 6-game series. So, unlike Milwaukee, Atlanta could easily get caught looking ahead. The Bucks are playing with "double-revenge," as Atlanta has beaten them in both meetings this season. The Bucks are still 13-7 the last 20 times that they were a host in the series though. With an O/U line in the high 190s, note that the Bucks are 13-3 ATS the last 16 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 195 to 199.5 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WASHINGTON STATE. The Panthers hail from the better conference and arguably have more name recognition. This year's team isn't nearly as strong as some recent editions though. Off an emotional OT win against Butler, a rematch of last year's wild NCAA game, and now playing thousands of miles away from home, I expect them to stumble tonight. Even in the win over Butler, the Panthers were forced to use a very young lineup, as top scorer Ashton Gibbs was held scoreless. That may bode well for their future but not necessarily tonight. While Gibbs will surely find the scoresheet tonight, the fact that he's off his game right now isn't good for the Panthers. Its true that the Cougars may well be without Brock Motum. That's a blow, as he's a big part of their team. However, Motum went out early last game (only scored 4 points) and they still were able to win, on the road to boot. Abe Lodwick filled in admirably, scoring 23 points and adding 12 rebounds. The Cougars were able to hold the Beavers to their lowest-scoring game of the CBI while outrebounding them by a solid 41-34 margin. As you're probably aware, this is a "best of 3" format. That makes holding serve at home critical for the Cougars. While the Panthers have been outscored in going 7-9 on the road, the Cougars are 10-4 at home, outscoring opposing team by a 71.1 to 59.9 margin here. Ultimately, I expect homecourt to be the difference tonight. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Celtics are off a solid win yesterday. However, they've been terrible when playing a road game, after having played the previous day. Regulars know that we've successfully played against them several times in this situation. In fact, we just played against Boston in that situation a few days ago, at Philadelphia. The Celtics lost by 13. That was a tough scheduling spot and so is this one. The game at Philadelphia marked the end of an 8-game road trip for the Celtics. After enjoying Saturday off, playing in front of the home fans for the first time in more than two weeks, they disposed of Washington. They're right back on the road again here though, again playing their fourth game in five days. To boot, they're dealing with some injury issues AND being asked to lay a large number. Given the situation, I believe that's asking too much. The Bobcats, who had yesterday off, have played the Celtics tough. I played on the Bobcats the last time that they were a host in this series (10* Best Best on 2/7/2011) and they won outright. Including that victory and a cover at Boston last month and the Bobcats are now a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four in this series. Going back further finds Charlotte at a profitable 14-6 ATS the last 20 meetings with Boston. I expect those stats to get even better here. *10 (Best Bet)

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. I like how this one sets up for the visitors. True, the Grizzlies played yesterday. However, that was an afternoon game and it was right here at LA. So, there was no travel involved and the Grizzlies have had plenty of time off since that one finished. Also, note that its the first time that Memphis has played back-to-back games since 3/10 and 3/11. So, its been two weeks since they played b2b games (they won outright as a +6 point underdog in that one) which means that its not nearly as grueling as some b2b spots can be. Plus, the Grizzlies are 8-3 SU/ATS when playing the second of b2b games. So, its not a spot that they have trouble in. Going back further finds them at 33-18-1 ATS the past few seasons, when playing the second of back-to-back games. While the Grizzlies are 15-9 ATS on Sundays the past few seasons, the Lakers are only 21-30-1 ATS when doing so. Lately, it hasn't mattered what day the Lakers have played on. They're just 3-7-1 ATS their last 11. The Grizzlies play with recent "revenge," as the Lakers just beat them at Memphis less than two weeks ago. They're 63-47-1 ATS the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss, 22-17-1 ATS when attempting to avenge a home loss. That 3/13 game was decided by just five points, the third straight meeting in this series which was decided by single-digits. A closer look shows that there have been eight meetings between these teams since the start of 2010. The Lakers won ONLY ONE of those games by double-digits and four were decided by five or less. I could easily see this one also coming down to the wire and am grabbing the generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. Many will look at the fact that the Blazers are off a loss and that they have now dropped 10 of 14. They'll then wonder how this team can be laying such a large number. However, I feel that they're favored by this much for good reason. A closer look shows that Portland has actually been much better since firing Nate McMillan. The Blazers beat the Bulls (at Chicago) by double-digits. They weren't that good in their next two games, losing vs. OKC and Milwaukee. However, they've gone 2-0 ATS in their last two games, beating Memphis and covering (but losing) vs. LA. I expect the Blazers to be highly motivated to bounce back with a better effort. After losing vs. the Lakers, a game the Blazers led early, JJ Hickson commented: "We have got to rebound. This is where the game was lost. We fought hard enough. That

Reason: I'm playing on KANSAS. Many might be surprised to see Kansas as the favorite here. After all, this is mighty North Carolina that the Jayhawks are up against. The Tar Heels haven't been so mighty lately though. Indeed, they needed overtime just to get past lowly Ohio. They entered the tournament off a loss vs. Florida State and all three tournament opponents have been mediocre teams, at best. The Jayhawks have faced arguably tougher opposition, as they've had to deal with NC State, Purdue and Detroit. Each of those three teams brought a different element to the table and I feel those "warm up games" will serve them better than the ones (Vermont, Creighton, Ohio) that UNC has had to contend with. Note that I did back the Tar Heels when they blew out Vermont - so that big win did not surprise. We tend to think of the Tar Heels as being at their best in these types of situations. They're typically not though. They're only 9-13-1 ATS (6-17 SU) the last 23 times that they were underdogs. During that same stretch, they're 7-14-2 ATS when playing with one or less day's rest in between games and 17-24-2 ATS against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. Kansas allows just 61.4 (62.2 on road) while holding opposing teams to a mere 37.8% from the field. While there are plenty of storylines in play here, like Roy Williams facing his old team, perhaps the biggest is the status of Kendall Marshall. The Tar Heels point guard has a broken bone in his right wrist. Even if he did manage to somehow play, its hard to imagine him being at 100%. Given that Williams refers to Marshall as "our engine, our driver, the head of the thing" his potential absence - or the fact that he won't be 100% - is a major blow. The Tar Heels are obviously loaded with talent and can make up for that type of loss against teams like Ohio. However, this is Kansas - another team which is filled with bigtime talent. Roy Williams doesn't get to face his old team often - the only previous time that he did, the Jayhawks crushed the Tar Heels - a 2008 meeting in the Final 4. Playing at St. Louis, in front of what will surely be a pro Kansas crowd, I expect the Jayhawks to get the better of Williams and co. once again. *10

Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Mavericks are off a hard-fought physical 107-84 loss vs. division rival San Antonio. Having been blown out last night, many will likely assume that the champs will bounce back here. Easier said than done. While the Mavs are now a poor 9-14 SU and 11-12 ATS on the road, the Rockets are an excellent 18-6 SU and 16-8 ATS at home. As noted, last night's game was a physical one. Terry, Marion, Kidd and Mahinmi ALL played more than 30 minutues. Meanwhile, Nowitzki saw 37 "physical" minutes of action. Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle noted: "Everybody plays Dirk hard and physically..." Tim Duncan had this to say about newly signed Boris Diaw: "I thought he did a really good job on Dirk. He was physical with him. He contested every shot he took and made life difficult for him. I thought he was great tonight." The Mavs are only 8-8 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games. Worse, they're an awful 11-21-1 ATS the past 33 times that they were off a double-digit loss, 4-6 SU/ATS in that role this season. The Rockets had yesterday off, after hammering Golden State by 26 on Thursday. They've quietly gone 14-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. With the schedule in their favor and knowing that they'll have to face these same Mavs in Dallas in a few days (in that one, the Rockets will be the team playing the second of b2b games) I expect the Rockets to take care of business on their home floor this evening. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SYRACUSE. I have a lot of respect for the Buckeyes. In fact, I won with them last game, as they crushed Cincinnati. They're well-coached and talented. The same can be said of Syracuse though. That said, I feel the Orange are providing us with plenty of value here. True, the Orange lost their center prior to the start of the Tournament. Keep in mind that this team was a #1 seed for a lot more reasons than Fab Melo though. I didn't play the Orange in their first game of the tournament - they got "tested" in that one and failed to cover. I did come back and play them against K-State in the second round though. Up against a good Wildcat team, they won by 16. I didn't play them against Wisconsin. I did like the Orange to advance and wasn't about to go against them, but also wasn't comfortable laying points with them against a scrappy Badger team. They won but didn't cover. I don't feel the Orange should be viewed negatively or only beating Wisconsin by one. After all, those same Badgers split with Ohio State this season and both games were decided by six or fewer points. This time, the Orange find themselves in the underdog role. I feel that the close game experience will serve them well here. Note that the Orange failing to cover (combined with OSU doing so easily) has also worked in our favor in terms of line value. Additionally, note that Syracuse is 6-3 ATS (and SU!) the last nine times it was an underdog, including a 2-0 ATS mark as a neutral court underdog of three of fewer points. Going back further finds the Orange at an outstanding 15-7 ATS (and SU!) the last 22 times that they were listed as neutral court underdogs of three or fewer points. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, are just 5-7 SU/ATS the last dozen times that they were favored by three or fewer points on the road. With an O/U line in the mid 130s, note that Syracuse is 22-1 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s while Ohio State is just 7-4 and only 4-7 ATS. Nearly everyone is figuring this is the game that Fab Melo's absence catches up with the Orange. This is an extremely deep team though, one which has overcome adversity all year. Don't be surprised if this one comes right down to the wire with the #1 seed scoring the "upset." *10

Reason: I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Off back-to-back wins and now with four victories in their last five, the Hawks have been playing fairly well recently. This is a very tough spot for them though and I expect them to stumble. Not only did the Hawks host New Jersey last night but they'll also be playing their 8th game in the past 12 days. Additionally, they've got a home game (Utah) on deck tomorrow. Put another way, the Hawks will be playing their 14th game in March while the Wizards will be playing their 12th. Throw in the fact that the Hawks were out on the West Coast a little more than a week ago and this is indeed a grueling stretch of their schedule. While they're already 0-2 against the Hawks this season, both those games were Atlanta. The last meeting here at Washington saw the underdog Wizards win by 32 points! The Wizards, who had yesterday off, are also quietly playing well. In fact, they're 3-0 ATS their last three games and 5-1 ATS their last six. The only time that they failed to cover during that stretch was against these same Hawks. That was at Atlanta though and that time it was the Wizards who were playing the second of b2b games, while the Hawks were coming off a day of rest. With the roles reversed, now its payback time. *10

Reason: I'm playing on KANSAS. The Jayhawks were seriously tested in the last round. They fell behind early against Purdue and had to battle back the entire way. While they didn't cover, they did find a way to advance. I feel that stiff test will serve them well here. I expect that the Jayhawks will have "learned their lesson" and I look for them to get off to a much better start. With all due respect to NC State, I believe Kansas is the significantly superior squad here. While the Wolfpack have been playing well, ultimately, the Jayhawks defense figures to be the difference. I also really like the venue and timing of this game. It has a late start (NC State is an East Coast based team) and is being played at St. Louis. Advantage Kansas. With the large crowd heavily in their favor, I expect the stronger Jayhawks to pull away for a double-digit victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I successfully played on the 76ers against these same Celtics earlier this month. That was a tough spot for Boston. The Celtics were off a game the previous night and were playing their sixth game in nine days. As they often do, when playing the second of back-to-back games, the Celtics struggled. In fact, they barely showed up. Philadelphia won by 32 points. While the Celtics would surely love to avenge that loss, note that they're only 10-13 ATS (11-12 SU) when in the revenge role. More importantly, they're also in another difficult scheduling spot. The Celts are are off a win at Milwaukee last night. They're now playing the final leg of an 8-game road trip which had them trekking all over the West Coast. Even with a recent win at Denver, which was the second of b2b games, the Celts are an awful 18-32 ATS the last 50 times that they played the second of b2b games, 4-9 ATS their last 13. The 76ers just came up short in a big game vs. the Knicks, This is their chance to get right back on the horse with a big win on ESPN. They've been excellent as home favorites in this range and I look for them to bounce back with an important win and cover here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on TORONTO. I'll admit that the Knicks have beaten me a couple of times since the coaching change now. Clearly, they've been playing much better since D'antoni's departure. I feel that they're getting a little over-valued now though and I expect them to have their hands full the entire way tonight. The Raptors did just get blown out at MSG, which should provide them with some added motivation here. With the Knicks laying a fairly good handful of points, note that prior to Tuesday's blowout, both the previous meetings were decided by five or fewer points. Also, note that the Knicks are a money-burning 3-8 ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Raptors are 6-4 ATS the last 10 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. They're also 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. NY road games are being decided by an average of 1-point, with the Knicks getting outscored 96.1 to 95.1. Toronto home games are also being decided by an average of only 1-point. The Raptors are getting outscored here by an average score of 93.6 to 92.6. The last game here was decided on a Lin 3-pointer at the buzzer. I feel this one could easily also come down to the wire and am happily grabbing all those generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OHIO STATE. I've been involved with two Cincinnati games over the last two weeks. I successfully played on the Bearcats when they beat Georgetown in the Big East Tournament. I knew to come back against them when they stepped up in class to face Louisville though. While they haven't lost since, beating Texas and Florida State, feel they'll be in over their heads once again here. The Buckeyes bring 29 wins and loads of talent to the table. They won by "only" seven points last time out. However, that was against a very tough Gonzaga team. Their previous three wins all came by double-digits. Obviously, this game is a very big deal in the state of Ohio. Four of the final 16 teams are from the state of Ohio, including both of these ones. That's the first time that four of the final 16 teams have been from any single state. There may be only one left after this round though. Ohio is a double-digit underdog (vs. UNC) and Xavier is up against a Baylor team suddenly starting to click. Whatever happens in those games, I expect the #2 seeded Buckeyes to win Thursday's "Battle of Ohio." Cincinnati shot well at the charity stripe against Florida State but was the worst free-throw shooting team in the Big East. Cincinnati's got a good big man, in Yancy Gates. However, he's up against Jared Sullinger. The Buckeyes' supporting cast is superior. The Buckeyes could easily be a #1 seed. They hammered the Bearcats when the teams last met (72-50) and I expect them to again prove to be the superior Ohio squad here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Knicks have certainly played well since the coaching change. However, this will be arguably their toughest test (since the change) and I expect them to come back down to earth. The Knicks will be playing the second of back to back games here, as they're off a win over the Raptors last night. That isn't the case for the 76ers, as they had last night off. To their credit, the Knicks did win at Indiana the last time that they played the second of back-to-back games. However, in that case, the Pacers were also involved in a back-to-back spot, as those same two teams had faced each other the previous night. Even with a victory in that game, NY is still only 5-10 SU and 6-8-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. Going back further finds the Knicks at 19-35 in that situation the past few seasons. (Prior to the Indiana game, the previous four times that they played the second of back-to-back games, the Knicks lost by 5, 13, 14 and 8 points.) Off a rare 3-game losing streak, the 76ers got back on track with a 25-point win on Monday. Now they return home where they are 16-9. That's a whole lot better than NY's 8-14 mark on the road. The teams have split two meetings, both at MSG, this season. Philly won the last one, which puts NY in the "revenge" role. That doesn't typically provide the Knicks with much added incentive though. In fact, they're only 7-13 ATS the last 20 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. The Knicks are still a sub .500 teams and the 76ers are a commanding 17-4 SU and 16-5 ATS against teams with a losing record. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. *10

Reason: I'm playing on TORONTO. You may recall that these teams faced each other on Valentine's Day, at Toronto. At the time, Jeremy Lin was taking the league by storm. He ended up leading the Knicks back from a double-digit deficit, eventually hitting a 3-pointer to win the game at the buzzer. That wasn't the only close game between these teams this season. The other meeting saw the Raptors come here to New York and score a 5-point upset. With the Raptors playing more inspired basketball of late and with the Knicks in a potentially tough scheduling spot, I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire. I successfully played against the Raptors last time out. That was largely due to the schedule and the pointspread though. The Raptors were coming off an OT game the previous night, were playing their fourth game in five days - and yet were laying points on the road. They fought hard but lost by four. The Raptors have had a much needed couple of days to recover from that grueling stretch. That should benefit them all. Not only does it allow everyone's legs to get some rest, it should allow point guard Jose Calderon time to return from injury. That means that the Raptors should have Calderon and Bargnani AND Bayless all playing together. Bargnani has several games under his belt since returning from injury while Bayless is suddenly playing the best basketball of his pro career. Bayless is averaging 21.8 points on 54.3% shooting over the past five games. While the Raptors are 2-2 their last four games, note that both losses came when they were playing the second of back to back games. They've quietly gone a profitable 14-7-2 ATS since the season hit the midway point. The Knicks also had the last two days off. However, after having won three straight, they may have preferred to keep playing. Either way, it should be noted that they play at Philadelphia tomorrow night. Not only are the 76ers a division rival, one which is on top of the Atlantic, but they were also the last team to beat the Knicks here at MSG, having done so by double-digits on 3/11. In other words, it may be easy to get caught looking past the lowly Raptors. The Knicks are only 8-14-1 ATS the past few seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. That includes a 1-3-1 ATS mark their last five in that situation. I expect them to have their hands full once again. *10

Reason: I'm playing on FLORIDA. Having knocked off #2 Missouri, Norfolk State is already a great story. I expect that story to come to a quick end today though. One of the big reasons they were able to pull off the monumental upset on Friday was that the Spartans were an outstanding 10 of 19 from "downtown" against the Tigers. Given that they only shot 31.1% from beyond the arc all season, a repeat performance from outside is unlikely. Indeed, in their previous two games, the Spartans had shot just 16.7% and 27.3% from 3-point range. On the other hand, the Gators hit a mere 17.4% from beyond the arc against Virginia on Friday. Considering that they average 38.4% from 3-point range, they'll hope to shoot better from outside here. Yet, despite the poor 3-point shooting, the Gators still dominated a tough Virginia team. In fact, they won by a commanding 70-45 margin. While the Gators were dealing with the likes of Kentucky, Norfolk State had a very easy conference schedule. They still have nine losses on the season though and they still averaged less than 70 points, only outscoring teams by a 69.5 to 66.5 margin. Double-digit losses vs. V-Tech, (73-60) and Marquette (99-68!) show that this team can be blown out when stepping up in class. In fact, the Spartans even lost by 32 (68-36!) at Illinois State, 10 vs. Delaware State and by a dozen vs. Elizabeth City State! The short-turnaround figures to serve the Gators well. They're 18-6 SU and 11-6 ATS when playing with one or less day's rest in between games the past few seasons, 4-1 ATS (6-1 SU) the last seven. The Gators have been a highly profitable "tournament team" over the years (57-32-2 ATS L91!) and they've thrived as large favorites. They're 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) their last five as neutral court favorites in the -12.5 to -15 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Wrong place at the wrong time for the Wizards. The Grizzlies rarely lose back to back home games, which is the case here. Knowing they embark on a road trip after this, they know they can't afford to drop a game to the lowly Wizards. Unhappy with their performance against the Raptors on Friday, I expect them to bounce back with a huge effort here. Hosting the Wizards should help. For the season, the Wizards are 4-17 on the road. That includes a 2-5 ATS mark as road underdogs of greater than a dozen points. The Grizzlies came up short on Friday. However, it was still good to get Zach Randolph back. Indeed, Randolph had 25 points and nine rebounds. Keep in mind that the Grizzlies haven't lost three in a row here at home since 2010. They're still 15-7 at home on the season. The Wizards, who recently shook up their team with a big trade, are playing the fifth game of a 6-game road trip. They're still trying to get everyone acquainted with each other. They're also 0-4 ATS after having played three or more consecutive games on the road. Additionally, they're only 7-13 ATS (3-17 SU) against teams with a winning record. The Grizzlies, who beat Washington by 14 here last season, are a perfect 8-0 SU against teams which allow 99 or more points per game (Washington allows 102) and they've gone 6-2 ATS in those games. I expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ST LOUIS. The Billikens pulled away to upset a solid Memphis team in the first round. While they're stepping up in class here, I feel they've got a real shot at another upset. At the very least, I expect them to give the Spartans a very tough test. I successfully backed the Billikens on more than one occasion this season, most recently their 3/9 victory over La Salle - although that was a push for some. They won that one by seven (line was -6 when I released the play but closed at -7) and have since since each of their last two games also decided by seven points. While this obviously isn't football, seven has seemingly been a "key number" for St. Louis this season. That's noteworthy as today's line has climbed up to, or above, that mark. Not only have the Billikens seen three straight games decided by seven points this season but they've only seven times this season. SIX of those losses came by seven or fewer points. This is a team which finished on top of the A-10 and which allows a mere 57.4 points per game. When you only allow that many points, naturally is hard to get blown out. Not surprisingly, the Billikens are now 3-0 ATS as underdogs. They haven't seen this many points all season. They're 9-2 ATS in lined games against non-conference foes and I expect at least another cover here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BAYLOR. Yesterday reminded us that anything can happen in this tournament. That said, I believe there is a significant class difference between these teams. I also feel that Baylor will want to make a statement against a Colorado team which bolted from the Big 12. In reality, its likely the Buffaloes wouldn't even be in this tournament if they'd played in the Big 12 this season. The Buffaloes know they're up against a different kind of foe than they've seen. Colorado forward Austin Dufault had this to say: "Definitely talent-wise ... the best team we've played this year. They've got a lot of great guys, NBA guys. But that

Reason: I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Raptors are in a very tough scheduling spot here. Last night, they played an exhausting game at Memphis. That one had "playoff like intensity" and went into OT. Not only are the Raptors playing the second of b2b games, they're also playing their fourth game in five days. That figures to make last night's OT game take that much more of a toll. The Bobcats already beat the Raptors last month, at Toronto. While the Raptors would surely love to avenge that loss, they're a dismal 18-32-3 ATS (13-40 SU!) the last 53 times that they played with revenge from an earlier home loss. The Bobcats, who had yesterday off, have shown some signs of coming around lately as they're 5-3 ATS their last eight, including a double-digit win over Orlando. I had them (as a *10 Best Bet) in that game and I'm backing them again here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SYRACUSE. Everyone knows the Orange lost their center. Everyone also knows that they "survived a scare" in the first round. That has many thinking the Orange are vulnerable. I believe that sentiment and corresponding low number are providing us with excellent value. Losing their big guy may well hurt the Orange. Eventually. However, I don't expect it to hurt them here. This team has dealt with a ton of adversity all season long and I look for the "scare" in the opening round to be just the wake up call that they needed. K-State is 1-4 SU/ATS its last five against Big East opponents. The Wildcats are also only 3-6 ATS (2-7 SU) the last nine times that they were neutral court underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. Seniors Kris Joseph and Scoop Jardine led the Orange back in Rd 1 and both are ready to lead their team here. Joseph was quoted as saying: "Us being the senior leaders on the team, the team goes as we go. We definitely have to get off to faster starts. We both had a slow first half, and we kind of picked it up in the second. We can't allow that to happen as we advance in the tournament. We got to bring it for 40 minutes. The guys are looking to us to bring that intensity and bring that sense of urgency to the basketball game on both ends of the floor. That's definitely something we spoke about after the basketball game, both Scoop and I. We'll both be able to bring it for 40 minutes against Kansas State." I expect the Orange to get off to a much better start this time en route to an eventual win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on TEMPLE. The Bulls already have a win under their belts. That didn't help BYU or Western Kentucky much though - and I don't expect it to save the Bulls here either. The Owls hail from the lesser conference. The A-10 is still a very tough league though and the Owls won the regular season title. I believe they're the higher seed (and the favorite) for good reason here. The Owls are both talented and experienced. They've been here before and are hungry for success. This is their fifth straight and 30th tournament overall. Seniors Ramone Moore, Juan Fernandez and graduate Micheal Eric are looking to go out with a bang and feel this team is capable of making some noise. Moore was quoted as saying: "This is our last go-round. So however far we can make it, it would be great. I think the Elite Eight you know says a lot about the teams that we had in the past, how great of a tradition Temple basketball has had through the years. And like I said, it would just be great, but I mean we don

Reason: I'm playing on LONG ISLAND BROOKLYN. Many don't know much about Long Island University. The Blackbirds and their coach believe though. They've been here before and aren't coming here to get blown out. I expect them to hang around and give the Spartans a tougher test than they bargained for. The Spartans closed out the season on a great run and earned their #1 seed. Obviously, they're very well coached. However, they're not built like #1 seeds often are and arguably don't have the talent of teams like North Carolina or Kentucky. Speaking of UNC, note that the North Carolina is laying a considerably smaller number against Vermont today than Michigan State is laying against LIU. Yet, I've already stated I feel UNC has more talent than the Spartans - AND this LIU team defeated Vermont when those two teams faced each other. I make the comparison to the UNC/Vermont line, as I feel it helps give some perspective to this high number. (Note that LIU covered against UNC last year in the tournament, hanging with the Heels into the second half and losing by only 15, despite playing at Charlotte.) The Blackbirds lost a couple of players from last year's NCAA Tournament team and took a while to get rolling. They did though and won both the regular season and tournament in their conference. Listening to a lengthy interview with their coach on the radio and I believe he genuinely has his team feeling they can compete here. Keep in mind that they averaged 81.9 points per game this season, hitting nearly 48% of their shots. While they're likely to give up a lot of points here, they should also be able to score quite a few. Even if they do get down, they're unlikely to stop scoring, like some more defensive-oriented teams tend to do. Julian Boyd, who had 18 points and 12 rebounds in the first round game against UNC last year, had this to say of his team: "I feel we're a lot better than a 16 seed would usually be. And with this team I think we've proven a lot over the past two years. So we've won a lot of games. We've come together." The Spartans, 0-3 ATS in their last three first round Tournament games, are just 5-11-1 ATS the last 17 times that they were favored on a neutral court by more than a dozen points. They're also only 2-4 ATS the last six times they played a game with an O/U line in the 150s. I don't really expect the Blackbirds to pull off the miracle - but I won't be surprised if they come a lot closer to doing so than most will be expecting. *10

Reason: I'm playing on UNLV. The Rebels haven't fared well at the betting window of late and are off a loss vs. New Mexico. Colorado comes in on a roll, having won the Pac-12 Tournament. Those recent results have kept this line lower than it easily could have been. I believe that's providing us with excellent value on what I feel is a superior UNLV squad. The Rebels come in with a 26-8 record. The Buffaloes check in at 23-11. Normally, one might argue that Colorado was playing in a more difficult conference. That arguably wasn't the case this season though as the Mountain West had some really good teams while the Pac-12 was really down. When matched up against other teams from the Pac-12, the Rebels were dominant. They began the season with a double-digit neutral site win vs. USC. The following month, they crushed California by a score of 85-68. While the Buffaloes did beat the Bears in the Pac-12 Tournaments, it was Cal which finished with a much better overall record. The Rebels are experienced and have more depth. In addition to scoring more points (UNLV averages 76.6, Colorado averages 67.6!) the Rebels are more athletic and arguably play better defense. Lets not forget that this is a team which defeated North Carolina by double-digits. While they obviously had plenty of success in the conference tournament, the Buffaloes are 0-4 ATS their last four NCAA Tournament games. I feel they'll be in over their heads once again here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NEW MEXICO STATE. I won with the Aggies in their last game. They absolutely destroyed LA Tech, a team which had just beaten Hawaii, in the final of their conference tournament. Prior to that, the Aggies beat Hawaii by double-digits, after storming off to 20-0 lead out of the gate in that game. They've got 26 wins on the season and are playing with a ton of confidence. While the Hoosiers are obviously a very talented squad, the Aggies aren't intimidated here and truly believe they can win. A closer look finds that the Aggies have won three straight by double-digits and are 9-1 their last 10. Eight of those nine victories came by double-digits and the lone loss came by only four points. Indeed, this team is playing with a ton of confidence, arguably playing its best basketball of the season. A closer look reveals that eight of the Aggies' nine losses (including all 4 in 2012) came by eight or fewer points. So, not only do they rarely lose but when they do lose, they rarely get blown out. The only team to beat them by more than eight was instate rival New Mexico - and the Aggies had already beaten the Lobos by nine points (as a +12 underdog) at New Mexico, so the "situation" was considerably different. The Hoosiers have had a strong season and an early (1-point) win over Kentucky showed they can beat any team. That came at home though and when they were still undefeated. They're not as strong away from their home court and have since lost eight times. Most recently, they were beaten by eight by Wisconsin. Including the loss to the Badgers, the Hoosiers are 7-7 SU away from home and just 4-7 ATS (3-8 SU) their last 11 on a neutral court. On the other hand, the Aggies are 12-6 away from home and 8-4-1 ATS their last 13 on a neutral court. Going back further finds the Aggies at an impressive 29-13 ATS their last 40+ lined games in March including 10-4-1 ATS their last 15. In a game that could easily come down to the final possession, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. *10

Reason: I'm playing on COLORADO STATE. With 30 victories to their credit, the Racers certainly bring the superior record to the table. They're also likely to have the majority of the fans supporting them, as this game is being played in their home state. That said, I expect them to have their hands full with a determined and solid Colorado State squad. Before getting started with the team analysis, note that I like fact that Colorado State last played on 3/9 as compared with Murray State having had such a long layoff and not having played since 3/3. The Rams won their only matchup of the 2011-12 eason against a member of the Ohio Valley, defeating the Jacksonville State Gamecocks, 79-56, on Dec. 29 in the championship game of the Don Haskins Bank of the West Sun Bowl Invitational in El Paso, Texas. Note that the Racers faced the Gamecocks at Murray State yet still won by only 11. In other words, the Rams were far more dominant against that common opponent. Including that result, Colorado State is 8-4 in 12 games against the OVC. The Rams have already won a record three games against ranked opponents this season and they feel they match up well here. Guard Wes Eikmeier had this to say Wednesday: "I think we match up pretty well. They're guard-oriented, and they don't have a lot of size inside, which that's kind of what we're like. They have guys that play a big chunk of minutes." CSU guard Dorian Green added: "...Just kind of looking on paper and just looking at them, we match up - we feel like we match up pretty well with them." Speaking of Colorado State guards, note that Greg Smith (ankle) has been upgraded to probable. In addition to wins over Montana, Wyoming and Pac-12 Tournament Champion Colorado, the Rams have beaten the likes of San Diego State, New Mexico and UNLV. They've also played at Duke. So, playing the Racers here should not intimidate them. Note that the Rams are 3-1 SU/ATS their last four neutral court games. They're also 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were off a conference loss. Murray State, on the other hand, is 6-9-1 ATS when it was off a conference win. The Racers have seen two of their last three decided by five or fewer points, most recently a 2-point win over Tennessee State. In a game that could easily come down to the wire once again, I'm grabbing the points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. Both these teams could desperately use a victory. The Blazers got blown out at Indiana last night and have now lost six of eight. Things are arguably even worse in New York though. Indeed, the Knicks have now lost six straight. Yet, despite that skid the Knicks, 8-14-1 ATS as favorites, find themselves laying a fairly big number here, one which climbed from its opener. I feel that's providing us with excellent value on the visitors. True, the Blazers are playing the second of back to back games, part of the reason we're getting such a generous line. However, that shouldn't be cause for concern. You may recall that we backed the Blazers the last time that they were playing the second of back to back games, a 110-99 winner on 3/10. Here's a small excerpt from that writeup. Note that the 3/10 winner is not included in those stats: "...The last time that the Blazers played a "road" game, after playing the previous night, they won outright as +5 point underdogs. The previous time that they in that situation, they covered as +4 point underdogs. Overall, they're 32-21-1 ATS (32-22 SU) the past few seasons, when playing the second of b2b games ..." Note that prior to last night's game, the Blazers had two day's off. So, its not a particularly grueling back-to-back spot. The Knicks have real issues. Lin is struggling and is not a good defender. Carmelo is unhappy and the D'Antoni's days are number. I feel they'll be very fortunate to win this game, let alone cover. The Blazers won here last season and I expect them to bounce back with a much better effort, leading to at least another cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I won with the Cavaliers last time out and I expect them to keep on rolling for another day. Off three straight wins, all against quality opponents, the Cavaliers are arguably playing their best basketball of the season. They received a fairly tough test from Houston last time out but still pulled away for a double-digit (118-107) victory. Prior to that, the Cavs won at Oklahoma City, where the Thunder practically never lose. Before that, they won at Denver. With those three victories, all of a sudden, the Cavs are thinking playoffs. The fact that the Knicks are in free-fall mode is only adding to the excitement. In fact, the Cavs are only 0.5 game behind the Knicks, who enter today's action tied with the Bucks for the final playoff spot. With both those teams off today, the Cavs can pull into a 3-way tie for Kyrie Irving, who scored 16 points final 4:14 against Houston said this of his team's play right now: "What I like most is just our ability to compete for 48 minutes, no matter what's going on in the game. They make their run, but we continue to get stops and continue to execute on the offensive end of the floor." Now, the Cavs take a significant step down in class to take on a Toronto team that is only 6-14 on the road. Yes, the Raptors have gotten Bargnani back. However, after missing so much time, he can't be expected to dominate immediately and will likely take some time to work his way into optimal playing shape. He's had just eight and 11 points in the two games since returning. Even his teammates acknowledge he's not playing his best yet. Bayless had this to say: "We know how good he is and I need him back, everybody needs him back, and when he gets back to the level that he was at we are going to be a very dangerous team ... " Perhaps, more importantly, note that the Raptors are expected to be without starting pointguard Jose Calderon. Even if he is available, he'll be playing on a gimpy ankle. Bayless is a capable backup. However, the team needs both of them healthy to be at its best. Off the three big wins, the fear might be that the Cavs will suffer a "letdown" here. However, I don't expect that to be the case. I've already noted that they're now suddenly in the thick of the playoff race. Obviously, a home game against Toronto is an opportunity for a victory which they shouldn't squander. Additionally, the Raptors have already beaten the Cavs twice this season, including once here on Opening Night, December 26th. The fact that they're playing with "double-revenge" should ensure we don't see any "letdown." While the Cavs average better than 95 points per game at home, the Raptors manage a mere 87 per game on the road. I expect a win and cover for the revenge-minded Cavs, as they improve to 7-3 ATS when facing a team which scores 91 or fewer points per game. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE. The Hilltoppers bring a lot of momentum into tonight's game. Indeed, they're a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS their last six games. Clearly, they're a much improved team from the one that began the season. However, lets not forget that this team is still only 15-18 on the season. Also, a closer look at their six game winning streak shows that ALL six of those games were decided by six or fewer points. Four of those were decided by four or fewer points. In fact, a closer look shows that the Hilltoppers only won one game by more than 10 points all season - and that came by only 12. Now, they're being asked to lay more than a few points against a team which is 19-1 its last 20 games. I believe that's asking too much of them. The Delta Devils do indeed hail from a pretty weak (Southwestern Athletic) conference. However, that doesn't mean that they haven't faced quality competition. In fact, they've taken on plenty of top tier opponents. Non-conference opponents included the likes of Notre Dame, North Carolina , Florida, Wisconsin and Iowa State, just to name a few! The most recent of those games came on the road, at Iowa State which is a very tough venue - and the Delta Devils lost by only two. Speaking of close games, Mississippi Valley State has seen two of its last three games decided by three or fewer points. I could easily see this one also coming down to the wire and therefore I'll happily grab the generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Despite playing without Kyle Lowry, the Rockets were able to earn a road win at New Jersey yesterday. However, that was against a Nets team which was also missing its point guard and best player, Deron Williams. They were also catching the Nets playing their second game in two days & in a four games in five days spot. Tonight, the Rockets are again expected to be without Lowry, which is indeed a big loss for them. This time, however, they'll be the ones who are playing the second of back to back games. They'll also be playing a Cleveland team which is suddenly surging and feeling good about themselves. The Cavaliers return home having just won road games at Denver and Oklahoma City. Considering that the Thunder are 18-2 at home (and had won 14 straight there before Cleveland beat them) I'd say that was a pretty impressive trip. Off those victories, the fans will be excited to welcome their team back and I expect the Cavs to bring the positive momentum home with them. Even with last night's win, the Rockets are still just 7-13 away from Houston. That includes a 1-4 SU/ATS record as a road underdog of three or fewer points. They're just 6-11 ATS in that role the past few seasons. While they've fared OK at the betting window, during that stretch, the Rockets were only 24-33 SU when playing the second of b2b games. The Cavs are now a respectable 7-6 SU/ATS against teams from the West. They're 10-6-2 ATS (13-5 SU!) the last 18 times that they played a home game where the O/U line ranged from 195 to 199.5. Catching the Rockets in a back-to-back spot and likely without their starting point guard, I expect the Cavs to earn themselves a rare 3-game winning streak, covering the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ST BONAVENTURE. Xavier obviously has the much bigger name. Indeed, the Musketeers are good every year. That alone is helping to create some value with the lesser known underdog. That's not the only reason I'm backing St. Bonaventure though. Far from it. I won with the Bonnies yesterday and feel that they're quietly peaking at the right time. The Bonnies almost let yesterday's game slip away. They came through when it mattered though, avenging an earlier loss suffered at Massachusetts. Keep in mind that the Minutemen had beaten a strong Temple team (ranked #21) the previous day. With yesterday's victory, the Bonnies are now 7-2 ATS the last nine times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. That's noteworthy as they lost at Xavier back in January, this season's lone meeting. St. Bonaventure's Demitrius Conger had 22 points , 10 rebounds AND eight assists yesterday, narrowly missing out on the "triple-double." He's not even the Bonnies' best player either as this team also has the conference player of the year, Andrew Nicholson, Nicholson added 19 points yesterday. The 6-9 senior had 25 points and 10 rebounds against St. Joseph's the previous day. The Musketeers are off an impressive win and cover yesterday. However, lets keep in mind that they're still 1-6-1 ATS their last eight games, 3-9-2 ATS their last 14. On the other hand, the Bonnies are now 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven games. They haven't been to the NCAA Tournament since 2000 and naturally are highly motivated to return. I feel the Bonnies have an excellent shot at the outright win. In fact, I expect them to win. However, in a game that could easily come down to the wire, I'll happily grab the generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. I won with the Bearcats already this tournament. So, I'm not shocked that they're here. I expect them to be in over their heads here though. True, Louisville is now playing its fourth game in four days. However, the last two of those have been double-digit victories. While the bye helped initially, the Bearcats are now playing their third game in three days. Their victories have arguably been of the "harder fought" variety. Yesterday, they upset Syracuse by three points. The previous day, they needed double OT to beat Georgetown. So, while the Bearcats had the extra bye to begin with, they won't necessarily be the "fresher" team. While I don't normally pay too much attention to how teams do on certain days of the week, its worth noting that the Bearcats are just 5-6 SU (2-7 ATS!) on Saturdays. On the other hand, the Cardinals are 9-3 SU (7-3 ATS) in their Saturday games. The Cardinals are now 10-4-2 ATS the last 16 times that they played with one or less day's rest in between games. They're also in the "revenge role" here, having lost a close one at Cincy in this season's lone regular season meeting. That's noteworthy as they are 12-3 SU (9-6 ATS) the last 15 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. I mention the SU record as a SU win will likely also result in a cover here, due to such a low line. While I respect both teams and coaches, I feel that the revenge-minded Cardinals will ultimately prove to be a little better. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. Admittedly, the Blazers haven't been at their best lately. That was the case again last night as they got embarrassed at Boston. The Blazers are still a solid and well-coached team though and I expect yesterday's loss to provide them with some added urgency for this evening's game. Added motivation comes from the fact that the Blazers were also embarrassed by these same Wizards, at Portland. That was a major upset and the Blazers should be thinking about some serious payback. Last night's loss was a "good" one, as far as setting up tonight's play goes. For starters, they got blown out. So, they should be motivated to atone for that performance. Additionally, as it was a blowout, the starters didn't have to play that many minutes. Aldridge was the only one to top the 30 minute mark and he only played 32.13. Also, in addition to last night's light minutes, note that this will be the first time since March 1st (they also played Feb 29) that the Blazers will have played the second of back to back games. So, it hasn't been a particularly grueling schedule of late. The last time that the Blazers played a "road" game, after playing the previous night, they won outright as +5 point underdogs. The previous time that they in that situation, they covered as +4 point underdogs. Overall, they're 32-21-1 ATS (32-22 SU) the past few seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. After last night's loss, Portland coach Nate McMillan had this to say: "That was an unprofessional approach. There was no basketball being played out there tonight. We can play harder than that. We can play better than that." Needless to say, McMillan will be expecting a much better performance tonight. The loss to the Wizards at Portland was a real low point for the team, another effort McMillan was obviously not pleased with. Listed as double-digit favorites, the Blazers lost by double-digits. Note that Portland is 18-11-3 ATS (62%) the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge a home loss. The Wizards upset the Lakers on Wednesday. However, they're a long ways from being a good or consistent team. The extra rest rarely helps them either. In addition to being 9-15 ATS the last 24 times that they played with two day's rest in between games, they're a dismal 7-24 ATS (5-26 SU) when off an upset win in their last game. I expect the Blazers to show up with a professional approach and look for them to take care of business with a convincing win and cover. Its payback time! *10

Reason: I'm playing on WISCONSIN. As you probably know, the Spartans won both regular season meetings. The first meeting, at Wisconsin, came down to the wire. The most recent meeting, at Michigan State, was more lopsided. For that reason, many won't give the Badgers much of a chance here. Indeed, the line has already climbed from its opener. I believe that's providing us with excellent value with what should be an extremely motivated Badger squad, one which is typically excellent in this spot. The Badgers are 12-7 ATS the past few seasons as underdogs. They're 4-2 ATS their last six in that role. They're also now 3-0 SU/ATS their last three on a neutral court. Additionally, they're 10-5 ATS (12-3 SU!) the last 15 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. While the Badgers are in some of their best roles, the Spartans are in a couple of their worst. They're 7-13 ATS the past few seasons, after scoring 80 or more in their previous game. During that stretch, they're also 0-5 ATS (and SU!) as a neutral court favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Badgers were in the middle of a 3-game losing streak the first time that these teams face each other. They entered the second meeting having gone 1-1 their previous two games. This time, however, they've won five of six, going 4-0 the last four. Peaking at the right time, I expect the revenge-minded Badgers to step up the defensive intensity, take this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the outright win. *10

Reason: I'm playing on STONY BROOK. These teams have some similarities and its fitting that they face each other in the America East Championship Game. They are the top two teams in the conference. They both come in with 22 victories, each "holding serve" on its home floor against today's opponent. They're both defense-oriented teams. I believe the Seawolves, who have three fewer losses, will ultimately have the advantage though. I like the matchups on the floor. Vermont coach John Becker believes it's critical to try and limit the low-post scoring opportunities of Dallis Joyner, the 6-7, 275-pound Seawolves center. To try and do so, he often will double-team Joyner with 6-7 forward Luke Apfeld and the 6-6 Brian Voelkel. With Brendan Bald busy dealing with Stony Brook small forward Tommy Brenton, it should give plenty of opportunities for 6-8 forward Al Rapier. Rapier has a knack for getting to the rim and I expect him to do so often on Saturday morning. While games in this conference often don't have lines, note that Vermont is just 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU) the last five times it was listed as an underdog. While they'd obviously like to get back, the Catamounts have been to the NCAA tournament recently. The Seawolves have never been there. They've had their best regular season ever and they desperately want to "join the party." They'll have the home fans cheering them on and I look for them to get it done. *10