Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on NEW YORK. Many are probably expecting this one to be a rout. I believe that a banged-up Titans team is walking into a hornet's nest though. As Vrabel noted: "It's tough to go on the road and win, records don't mean anything. We have to show up ready to play ..." The Jets are playing better defense than many realize. Vrabel also added: "The Jets have one of the best defensive fronts we'll face this year." Tannehill added: "They get after the quarterback. They have size, they have quickness, they have strength. Those guys are coming to play." The Titans' lone road game was decided by a field goal. They're off a divisional win and they've got another divisional game on deck. Look for them to have their hands full the entire way, falling to 5-8 ATS their last 13, when off two or more consecutive wins. 

I'm playing on HAWAII. I respect the Bulldogs. However, they're laying a lot of points here and I expect them to have their hands full. Hawaii brought back 18 starters from last year's team. Last year's team won 34-19, at Fresno State. The line for that game was only +2.5. Now, playing at home with arguably a stronger team, the Warriors are getting considerably more points. Value. Fresno State also returned a ton of starters, as the Bulldogs brought back 19 from last year's team. They only beat UNLV by eight last week though, a game where they were laying -30 points. Kind of disturbing to give up 281 passing yards and 30 points to the Rebels. Note that the Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS the past five times that they allowed more than 280 passing yards in their previous game. Also, note that their last three games against Div 1 teams have all been decided by eight points or less. The Warriors are off a confidence-building 41-21 blowout win at New Mexico State. Before that, in their last game here, they played a good San Jose State team tough. They lost by only four points. Speaking of close games, Fresno's last visit here was decided on a field goal, 41-38, as time expired. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the generous points. 

I'm playing TEXAS on the RL. (+1.5 runs) With the Indians favored on the moneyline, we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with the Rangers, at a very reasonable price. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. While the Rangers' record is obviously pretty bad, this is a team which is still fighting hard. Lyles is off a quality start, as he is also still fighting hard. He's gone at least 6 2/3 innings in three of his past four starts, allowing three or fewer earned runs in all three. (He didn't pitch as well in the other.) Those three games had scores of 8-1 and 4-3, in favor of the Rangers. The other was a 1-run loss, Texas losing 3-2. McKenzie, on the other hand, has a 7.82 ERA and 1.738 WHIP his past three starts. He had previously been pitching well but in his last two starts, both losses, he's given up 10 earned runs in 6 2/3 combined innings. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs with the Rangers. 

I'm playing ARIZONA on the run-line (+1.5 runs) I won with the Rockies (and the over) in their last game but I expect them to stumble in this one. Gray gave up two home runs (4 runs) in 4 2/3 innings last game. He's 3-7 with a 4.73 ERA on the road. He gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings when he faced the Dbax (at Colorado) in late August. Arizona won 8-4. Despite facing the Dodgers and Houston, two possible World Series teams, in his last two games and the streaking Mariners before that, Castellanos has allowed three earned runs in three straight starts, going at least five innings in each. This is a big step down in class from the teams he's been facing. When he started against the Rockies earlier, he tossed four shutout innings. Arizona won 6-4. Gray's last start here at Arizona was a 1-run game, Arizona winning 4-3. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. Though I successfully backed them against Illinois, I'm not a big believer in this year's Cavaliers. Last week, they got hammered by Wake Forest. The Deacons have a good team this year but that result still showed that Virginia has a lot of work to do. That's b2b losses of 20 points. Things don't get any easier. Off a 69-0 victory, Miami is full of confidence. Having faced the likes of Alabama (and Michigan State) the Canes are battle tested. Miami won last year's meeting by five and won by eight the year before that. I see an even bigger margin of victory in this one. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the home team has had recent success in this series, I feel that the value lies with the visitors in this one. It's early but both teams are dealing with some significant injuries. That said, I'm not sold on the Dallas defense and I like what I'm seeing from the Eagles. They crushed the Falcons and nearly beat the 49'ers. Note that they're 8-4 ATS the past 12 times that they played a game with a line ranging from +3.5 to +9.5 points. The Cowboys, who have been dismal as favorites since last year, have seen each of their first two games decided by a field goal. In what should be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on the NY GIANTS. Both these teams are 0-2. History tells us that 0-2 teams rarely make the playoffs. From 1990 to 2019, only 12% of 0-2 teams made the playoffs. Last season, 0-2 teams were 0-fer-11, in terms of making the playoffs. These teams were both among them. This year, with the addition of a 17th game and an expanded bracket, it's possible that an 0-2 team (or teams) will make it. That said, the Falcons know it probably won't be them. They played better than the final score indicated last week but still made mistakes and lost by 23 points. Their -49 point differential is the worst in the entire league. Knowing that the three teams ahead of them in the division are already a combined 5-1 figures to be disheartening. Playing in the NFC East, where every team already has a loss, the Giants have considerably more hope. Remember, Washington won the division with a 7-9 record last season. That extra optimism should serve them well here. Importantly, I believe that they match up very well against the Falcons. The Giants are averaging six yards per play, the Falcons are averaging 4.7 ypp. Note that Atlanta corner A.J. Terrell left the last game with a concussion, which is a big blow to the secondary. Homefield also works in New York's favor. Additionally, I like the fact that the Giants have had a couple of extra day's worth of rest and preparation time, due to playing on Thursday last week. With the Falcons just 4-13 ATS the past 17 times that they played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3, I'm laying the short number with the home team. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I had this game circled when the schedule came out. I've wanted to play it since the line came out but have waited patiently for it to come down. The reality is, however, that I'm expecting a convincing double-digit win for the Huskies. This year's team is loaded, stronger than many realize; they got on track in a big way last week. That 52-3 beating of Arkansas State gives them plenty of confidence and positive momentum. The Bears' lone victory came last week against Sacramento State - and they gave up more than 400 passing yards in the process. The previous week, they gave up 271 yards on the ground. Indeed, this is a porous Cal defense and Washington will put up a big number. Considering that the Huskies have allowed 13 and three points in their two games, I don't believe that the Bears will be able to keep up. The Bears have won b2b closes one in the series. Tonight, their vastly superior defense making the difference, the Huskies avenge those losses in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. I won with the Cavaliers in their blowout win over Illinois. However, UNC brought them back down to earth last week and I expect them to have their hands full again on Friday night. Wake Forest beat Virginia 40-23 last season. This year's team is even better, as the Deacons returned 20 starters from last year's team. While the Cavs were getting beaten up by the Tar Heels last week, the Deacons are off a confidence-building 35-14 beatdown of Florida State. Indeed, this team is better than many may yet realize. Note that WF is 5-1 ATS its last six, when coming off a SU victory. Including last year's victory, the Deacons are a perfect 6-0 ATS the past six meetings in the series. (They've won the last four meetings outright and the two before that were losses of one point and three points.) The Cavs will eventually snap that streak. Just not on Friday night. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on GB. As you probably saw, or heard, the Packers got hammered by the Saints in their opener. The Lions showed a little more life; they still lost but rallied from a big deficit to earn a backdoor cover. We know that the Packers have been the much better team for many years. That's very unlikely to change this season. The big question is, how will they react to the Week 1 beating? History suggests that they'll "bounce back big." The Packers were money off an ATS loss last season. They're also a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times that they had scored 15 or fewer points in their previous game. After scoring 10 points against Tampa last October, the Pack bounced back and scored 35 the next game, a 35-20 blowout win at Houston. Prior to that, after the 49'ers held them to eight points, the Pack responded with a 31-13 destruction of the Giants. A few weeks earlier, they had managed only 11 points against the Chargers. They immediately bounced back with a win and cover at Carolina. You get the idea. The "rebuilding" Lions are the perfect opponent to "bounce back" against. These teams met here exactly one year ago, to the day. The Packers doubled Detroit in that 9/20/20 game, a 42-21 rout. History repeats itself tonight. 

I'm playing MIAMI on the run-line (+1.5 runs). These same starters just faced each other, at Washington. Pitching in his home park, Fedde got the better of Luzardo. With this evening's rematch being played at Miami, I like Luzardo's chances of returning the favor. While the Marlins are just 24-50 on the road, they're a respectable 39-36 at home. That includes a 5-2 mark in Luzardo's home starts. (Overall, his teams are 7-4 in his "home" starts.) In fact, the Marlins are 3-0 in Luzardo's last three starts here, wins against the Reds, Phillies and Mets. He allowed three or fewer runs in each of those games. Yes, Fedde did also get the better of Luzardo in a game here last month. Still, the Nats are just 26-45 on the road and Fedde has been rocked in both road starts since. Yesterday's victory was the kind of win that can provide positive momentum for the Marlins. Expect AT LEAST another "run-line" cover.

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. (First Half) The Titans were embarrassed by their Week 1 effort. They're going to come out swinging right from the opening kickoff. Note that they're 7-0 SU the past seven times that they were off a double-digit loss; four of those wins were on the road, too. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 1-5 ATS their last six, when off an ATS win. These teams have met three times since 2010. All three meetings were within a field goal at halftime. Scores were 9-7, 10-7 and 7-7. We're working with more than a field goal and I expect this one to also be close, at the break. 

I'm playing KC on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Taking the extra +1.5 runs has continued to prove worthwhile, in games I expect to be of the close variety. Yesterday, the extra +1.5 runs turned the Mets from a loser into a winner. While I like KC to win this one "outright," I'm again happy to lay the short price in order to gain an extra +1.5 runs. The Mariners have lost Kikuchi's last two starts. Last time he pitched on the road, he allowed six runs (four earned) in just 1 2/3 innings. Going back a bit further finds that the M's are just 1-4 his past five starts, one of the losses coming against these same Royals. Kikuchi allowed four runs in five innings. On the other hand, the Royals are 4-0 in Bubic's last four starts, one of those a victory against Seattle. In fact, they're 8-2 his last 10 starts. Note that five of those, including the Seattle game, were decided by a single run. Royals bounce back with AT LEAST the "run-line cover."

I'm playing on MIAMI. At first glance, it may appear that the Spartans are off to a much better start than the Hurricanes. They're 2-0 SU/ATS while Miami is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Those records aren't surprising though. The Spartans beat Northwestern but they were catching the Wildcats playing their first game, after losing most of their offense from last year. So, a nice win, but not entirely shocking. Their next game was against Youngstown State. So, winning that game was obviously expected. Miami has played much tougher competition. The Canes first game was vs Alabama. So, a loss wasn't that surprising. Next was Appalachian State. Though they didn't cover, the Canes did a good job of bouncing back from the opening day loss, to earn the SU win. Now, that first victory under their belts and fully recovered from the Bama beating, they'll be ready to put it all together. Even with the win at Northwestern, the Spartans are still just 3-8 ATS their last 11 as underdogs, 0-4 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. While many seem to be jumping on the bandwagon, expect the Spartans to receive a reality check on Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on WOLVERHAMPTON. The Wolves faced some very difficult opposition out of the gate. Their first three opponents were Leicester City, Tottenham and Man. United. Those three clubs all finished in the top seven last season and all are again in the top 10. So, a tough start wasn't that surprising. Wolverhampton finally stepped down in class last game and prompty delivered a 2-0 victory against Watford. A home game against Brentford offers another excellent chance at three points and the Wolves know they need to take advantage. The Bees came back to earth last time out, giving up a late one against Brighton. That heartbreaker ended the Bees unbeaten start and will be tough to bounce back from. As Brentford manager Thomas Frank acknowledged: "It's always a tough one to take when someone scores in the 90th minute." The Wolves are unbeaten the last four times that they faced the Bees, earning victories in three of those. I see them coming away with the "W" again on Saturday morning. 

I'm playing on OHIO. Neither team is pleased with how its played so far. The Cajuns lost to Texas. No shame in that, except that they were blown out 38-18. They followed it up by only beating Nicholls by a field goal. Not good, when considering they were laying nearly four TDs. Ohio has been even worse. The Bobcats followed up a loss against Syracuse by losing outright to Duquesne. I'm of the mind that both teams are a lot better than they've shown and that both will be playing better on Thursday. That said, this is a lot of points for the Cajuns to be laying, considering they only just beat Nicholls by a field goal. Ohio has a veteran coach and a veteran team. The Bobcats are coming in desperate. Look for them to provide a much tougher test than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing CLEVELAND on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Indians got back on track yesterday and I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Morgan was sharp last time out. In fact, he limited the Red Sox to only three hits, through 5 2/3 shutout innings. He would strike out seven along the way. Note that Cleveland still lost by a run, a 4-3 final. That's five of Morgan's last 10 starts which were decided by a single run, including three 1-run losses. In other words, getting that extra +1.5 runs could well prove significant. Houser has been very tough at home but more mediocre on the road. Last time he pitched on the road, he allowed five runs in five innings. That resulted in a 6-4 loss. For the season, he's got a 4.37 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road. The Brewers are just 5-10 in IL play. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" from the home team.

I'm playing on SASKATCHEWAN. The Riders have had this one circled. The Bombers knocked them out of the playoffs (en route to winning the Grey Cup) the last time there was a season and now they finally get a chance to exact some revenge. Everything sets up perfectly for them to do so. The Riders are well-rested, having last played on Aug. 21. With a 3-0 record, they're the only team which has yet to taste defeat. Their passionate fans are loving every moment of it and this is the game they've been waiting for. Winnipeg is known for its defense and is indeed stingy. However, with just 47 points allowed, it's the Riders which have allowed fewer points than any other team. They've already recorded 14 sacks in three games. They've won their last two games by a combined score of 53-18. They're 6-1 ATS their last seven, following a bye. They're also 37-18 in the history of the Labor Day Classic. Expect them to improve on those stats, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on V-TECH. The Tar Heels are tough on both sides of the ball and deserving of their national ranking. This is a very tough opening game though. Blacksburg has never been an easy place to play. Now, the fans are back and the Hokies should be much improved. While the offense will be good again, the Heels lost some serious firepower from last year.  Note that they're just 5-5 on the road under Brown. Last year, they lost at (3-6) Florida State and (5-5) Virginia. After missing out on a bowl game for the first time in 27 years, the Hokies are coming into this season with a chip in their shoulder. They're 4-2 ATS their last six getting points overall and 6-3 ATS their last nine, as underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. I say homefield proves significant and that the Heels give the Hokies all that they can handle. 

I'm playing on the NY GIANTS. While the final game of preseason doesn't count for much, I believe that the Giants need/want this one a little more than the Patriots. While the Pats are 2-0, the Giants are 0-2. I eked out a cover with the Giants in their last game and that one worked out perfectly. Not only did the Giants get the cover but they also lost SU. That should ensure they play with intensity on Sunday; they want to avoid going winless. The Patriots won 35-0 in their last game, way back last Thursday. They've already accomplished all they could hope for and are focused on the big divisional game against Miami in Week 1. The Giants are fired up this preseason and I believe that'll serve them well here. They've fought themselves. They fought the Browns and they already got into a fight with the Pats in joint practices. These teams met in the final game of the 2019 preseason, as they have done for several years now. The Giants fell behind but didn't give up. They'd ultimately rally for the 31-29 win. The previous year's final, also between these teams, was decided by five points. The year before that, a 2-point win for the Giants and the year before that was a 17-9 win for the Giants. The year before that? A 12-9 win for the Giants. That's a lot of close games, the majority won by NY. I like the Giants' chances of another outright win. However, in what will likely be another close one, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. If you didn't already know about Baltimore's preseason success, before the season, you probably do now. The Ravens are once again undefeated and that has a lot of people talking about their longterm NFLX winning streak. In turn, in my opinion, that is providing us excellent value with the Washington Football Team. We're getting more than a field goal with a team playing at home, which should want to win more. I say that because the FT have more reason to want to try and build a winning mentality than the Ravens. Players on both teams are well aware of the Ravens' winning streak. The Ravens will want to keep it in tact but the FT absolutely wants to be the team which snaps it. Chase Young noted: "All I know is that we're going to go out there and play hard with the opportunity that we get. We'll see what happens." I see this one coming down to the wire and I'm grabbing the generous points. 

I'm playing on NEBRASKA. It sounds funny but a case can be made that this is one of Nebraska's most important games of the season. The Huskers absolutely need a positive start. Beating a team which embarrassed them last year is a great place to begin. Beating Brett Bielema, new coach of Illinois, will make it even sweeter. Nebraska coach Frost commented: "The one thing we need is momentum right now. There's so many good things that are happening in our program. These kids deserve a little wind under their wings, and that first game's going to be an opportunity for us against a Big Ten opponent. So that really is a big game." Frost has plenty of talent and now he's had plenty of time with his team. The cupboard isn't bare for Bielema either, thanks to his "super seniors." That said, its going to take some time. He can't be expected to work miracles overnight. The Huskers are 13-8 ATS their last 21, as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I see them settling the score from last year with a double-digit win to start the season. 

I'm playing on LIVERPOOL. (Draw = No Bet) This is a true heavyweight bout. Both teams are undefeaed. Both expect to contend for the title. Liverpool comes in mostly healthy; only James Milner is expected to miss. Chelsea boss Thomas Tuchel knows this wont be easy. He had this to say: "I think any time when you play at Anfield with spectators against Liverpool, it's one of the toughest challenges you can face in European football." That "spectators" part is key. Liverpool will look to avenge last year's 1-0, spectator-free, loss here. At the time, the Reds had dropped five straight games at Amfield and were playing uninspired soccer/football. They're in much better form now though and I expect a much different result. 

I'm playing OAKLAND on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) Off 11 straight wins, the Yankees are obviously red hot right now. However, I expect a desperate Oakland team to give them all they can handle. Both teams had yesterday off. That day off figures to have benefitted the A's a lot more than it did the Yankees. Off four straight losses, the A's needed a day to regroup. On the other hand, off so many consecutive wins, the Yanks probably would have preferred to just keep playing. The Yanks have long had problems here and they're just 1-9 their last 10 visits. Not only do the A's have the venue in their favor but they should have an advantage on the mound. Averaging less than five innings, Taillon is only 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA in 11 road starts. On the other hand, averaging better than six innings, Kaprielian is 5-2 with a 1.47 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in seven home starts. Some will recall that we successfully backed the A's in his last start, a 4-1 win over the Giants. Also, as I pointed out prior to that game, both Kaprielian's home losses were by a single run - both were still quality starts. In other words, including the win over SF, one would be a perfect 7-0 in his starts here, if getting an extra +1.5 runs each time. In what could be another close one, expect AT LEAST the "run-line cover" from the A's. 

I'm playing on NY. Both teams are expected to rest a lot of starters. That said, I believe that the 0-1 Giants are going to be a little more hungry than the 1-0 Browns and I expect a few more of their starters to see time than Cleveland's starters. NY Coach Joe Judge read his players the riot act and worked them really hard this past week. Judge had this to say of his team, after having held joint practices with Cleveland: "I thought our conditioning as a team looked good. That was an encouraging thing right there. Really, you've got to get a factor on that when you really start stacking up against other teams in seeing where your team is. I don't think as a coach you ever feel fully confident in where your team is conditioning-wise until you can measure it against somebody else on a field for a duration of time..." Basically we're getting these points because Cleveland was better last year and because Cleveland is the home team. Yet, the players which make Cleveland better, won't be playing and home field means very little. Note that eight of 10 visiting teams won outright yesterday. Two of thre three visiting teams won on Thursday and Friday, too. In fact, only one Week 2 home team (Miami) won by more than six points. While I like the Giants' chances of also winning this one outright, in a game which could easily be decided in the fourth quarter, I'm happy to grab the generous points. 

I'm playing OAKLAND on the run-line (+1.5 runs) After dropping four straight, the A's got a much-needed victory yesterday. Note that each of their past two games has been decided by a single run. While both teams badly need wins, the A's arguably need them more. I expect them to carry the positive momentum from yesterday's win into this evening's game. Kaprielian has been outstanding at home. In six starts here, averaging more than six innings per outing, he's 4-2 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.895 WHIP. On the other hand, Wood had a 4.36 ERA and 1.355 WHIP in eight road starts. Note that two of Wood's last three starts were 1-run SF wins. Also, note that both Kaprielian's home losses were by a single run - both were still quality starts. In other words, one would be a perfect 6-0 in his starts here, if getting an extra +1.5 runs each time. In what could be another close one, expect AT LEAST the "run-line cover" from the A's. 

I'm playing on CALGARY. Off to an 0-2 start and facing undefeated Montreal, the Stampeders opened as underdogs. When it was offiically confirmed that Mitchell, was hurt before the BC game but played, would be out for six games or so, the line climbed higher. That's providing plenty of value with what will be a desperate Calgary team. Off to an 0-2 start, many were writing off the other Alberta team. However, the Elks won outright as underdogs last night. Calgary, which has a great system in place, played much of 2019 without Mitchell. Coach Dickensen, a former star QB himself, had this to say of Mitchell's two backups: "...they've had enough time. There's no excusess ... Yeah, they're young, they're raw, but that doesn’t mean we can’t execute." Note that the Als are just 1-5 ATS their last six, when laying points. Lastly, note that the last three meetings were all decided by six or less. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on EDMONTON. After b2b home losses, getting on the road should be just what the doctor ordered for the Elks. A visit to Vancouver is particularly appealing. Edmonton has won the past three meetings against the Lions by scores of 19-6, 33-6 and 39-23. That 33-6 beatdown was here, at Vancouver. Going back further finds Edmonton at 12-4 the past 16 meetings. The Elks are going to be desperate. The Lions have seen both their games decided by six or fewer points. Only a couple of weeks ago, fresh off a great training camp and full of optimism, new Edmonton head coach Jaime Elizondo had this to say: "We've got a great group of men in that locker room. We even cut some great men. It starts with you as a person. If you have a great group of men and they happen to be really good football players, which is a great combination to have, that’s the starting point for building this thing the right way." Needless to say things haven't started the way Elizondo envisioned. Don't write the Elks off yet though. They're going to be desperate in this one and I like their chances of picking up their first win. 

I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. While the Panthers won't play many starters, the Colts have to find themselves a QB. They'll be giving significant time to both Eason and Ehlinger. Sure, neither of those guys has played in the NFL yet. They're going to have to learn fast though, with Wentz down with injury. The Colts want to give them every chance to succeed and build confidence and therefore we should see a little more time from their starters. Importantly, they've also even done some "semi-game-planning" for the Panthers, not the norm for a first preseason game. Reich said this of his QB's: "We think we have a good football team, right, so if one of those guys is our starting quarterback Week 1 they don't have to be a superstar. We want to see them go out and play good football, trust the teammates around them, trust the running game, make the plays in the play-action game and then on third down and red zone, where you gotta be right, be right." Determined to get their QBs on the right track, look for the Colts to take this one. 

I'm playing on EDMONTON. I lost with the Elks in their opening game but I'm coming right back with them again here. Knowing its a reduced regular season, the Elks know they can't afford to drop their first two games. Note that Edmonton hasn't started the season 0-2 for more than 10 years. Coach Jamie Elizondo noted: "The fact there are four less games obviously means that each game is magnified more ... There's no doubt we want to perform better on Saturday and we expect to." The fact that Montreal has yet to play works in Edmonton's favor. The Elks have already been able to work out some kinks while the Alouettes have not. I say Edmonton wins big. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. There's some excitement surrounding this game, as Justin Fields is expected to see extensive action for the Bears. At some point, during the season, he's going to take over the starting job from Andy Dalton. It's just a matter of when. Will it be in Week 1 or will Dalton start the first few games. Reports are that he's been great in practice. The Bears' prized rookie will be playing behind an offensive line which is already dealing with some serious injury issues though. The Dolphins were 4-0 ATS under Flores in the preseason in 2019. They won their opening game by seven points, playing hard (two 4th quarter TDs) the entire way. The lone SU preseason loss came by two points. Another game was a 3-point win. The other was a "blowout" win of 22-7. So, three wins and a 2-point loss. We're geting more than a field goal to work with here which is providing excellent value. Grab the points. 

I'm playing CHICAGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Needless to say, the Cubs have seen better days. That said, this is a highly favorable matchup. Though I expect Chicago to win outright, in this case, I'm happy to pay for the extra +1.5 runs. Miami is one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league. Alzolay allowed just two runs through 6 2/3 innings in his last start. He's allowed four or fewer earned runs in every single one of his 20 starts. Note that six of those saw Chicago losing by a single run. The Marlins haven't seen him, which should favor Alzolay. Lack of run support has been an issue for Alzolay, as evidenced by the six 1-run losses in games that he starts. In his last start, the Cubs didn't score a single run. They should provide Alzolay with much better support this evening though. Luzardo has an ugly 6.69 ERA through eight starts. Over his past three starts, he's got a horrible 9.23 ERA and 1.973 WHIP. The Marlins have somehow won four of his eight starts. However, two of those came by a single run. Last time out, he gave up seven runs in less than five innings. Cubs bounce back with AT LEAST the "run-line cover."

I'm playing on DETROIT. One preseason victory obviously won't erase decades of futility. That said, in my opinion, the Lions could use a victory more than the Bills. I expect them to play their starters longer than the Bills and for them to be the team which "wants it more" when the backups are in. While Allen won't play for the Bills, Goff will for Detroit. The Lions need to take their wins where they can get them. Kicking off the "new era" with a win, even if only a preseason one, against a quality team like Buffalo, will be a great place to start. 

I'm playing Minnesota on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) After the Sox pounded them last night, I'm expecting a much better effort from the Twins this evening. Jax has gotten stronger with each start. Last time out, he limited the Astros to one run, through 5 1/3 innings. The Twins won 5-3. That gives him an outstanding 1.88 ERA his last three starts to go along with an absolutely dominant 0.698 WHIP. The first of those three starts came against these same White Sox. Sure, Jax only went four innings. He also allowed only one hit though. He struck out six along the way and the Twins won 3-2. On the other hand, Keuchel's got a 5.71 ERA his past three starts, all Chicago losses. Despite having a starter in better current form and playing at home, the Twins are moneyline underdogs. That means we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with them on the run-line at a very fair price. Though we may not need them, with Keuchel off three straight 1-run games and Jax's lone start vs. Chicago also a 1-run game, it's a nice luxury to have. Expect the Twins to bounce back with AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing LA on the run-line (-1.5 runs) The Dodgers won by two yesterday and this is an even bigger mismatch. Buehler is 11-2 with a 2.16 ERA on the season. He's got a dominant 0.89 ERA his last three starts. On the other hand, Detmers has made one start and he's got a 12.48 ERA and 1.848 WHIP to show for it. He gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings, serving up as many HRs (2) as he recorded strikeouts. The Dodgers are 61-25 in day games the past few seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats, in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on EDMONTON. The first two days of the CFL season have belonged to the underdogs. Winnipeg won outright as a small home underdog. Then, BC covered against Saskatchewan, last night. Tonight's game at Edmonton should be different; I'm expecting a big win and cover for the favorite. Its a new era in Edmonton. The players and team will be anxious to start life as the "Elks" with a victory. For Edmonton coach Jamie Elizondo, the game is personal. He was with previously Ottawa's offensive coordinator. When he wanted to apply for the coaching job at Saskatchewan, Ottawa denied him the ability to do so, as he was under contract. A CFL source said this about Elizondo: "... he hasn't forgotten what Ottawa did. Blocking him from interviewing. In coaching, we call them 'F-you shots.' If he can, Jaime will take a couple. Late if Edmonton's winning ... " Stronger team, playing at home and loaded with motivation. Expect it to translate to a double-digit win for the Elks. 

I'm playing PITTSBURGH on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Brewers are on top of the division. The Pirates are in the basement. The Brewers are very likely going to make the playoffs. The Pirates are not. The Brewers have won each of the first two games convincincly. Another easy winner for them today? I'm not seeing it. With Milwaukee heavily favored on the moneyline, we're able to get great value with the Pirates on the run-line. Though we may not need the extra +1.5 runs, I'll happily take them. Kuhl has quietly been pitching very well recently. In fact, the Pirates are 5-1 in his last six starts. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in all six of those, one or less in four of them. While Peralta has also pitched well, the Brewers are 1-2 his last three starts. One of those losses came against Pittsburgh. So, the Pirates have already seen him this month. Not the case for the Brewers with Kuhl. After this game, the Brewers head to Atlanta. They've been fine without Yelich and Peterson (Quarantine) but missing those guys figures to catch up with them here. Kuhl and Peralta opposed each other back in the spring and Pittsburgh won a 1-run game. I say the Pirates bounce back with AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. With the home team boasting a 4-0 SU/ATS record so far, it would be easy to make a case for the Suns. I'm not trying to make an easy case though. I just want to win and I feel that the value lies with the road team. Here are some reasons why. The Suns squandered a golden opportunity in Game 4. That one was theirs for the taking. Booker had a huge game and Giannis did not. Yet, the Bucks still found a way to get the win and cover. Having to win when Giannis was either out of the lineup entirely, or when he's not having a dominant game, has helped the Bucks. They've learned that they can win without him. Middleton has shown that he can be the guy and the Bucks confidence has grown as a result. I also like that they play with two day's rest in between games again. Giannis will benefit from the extra day. Note that the Bucks are now 12-5 SU when playing with two day's rest in between games while the Suns are just 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS. While the finals may be new for them, the Bucks have paid their dues in recent seasons. They've been tied in a series a lot more times than the Suns have the past few years and I believe that their playoff experience will serve them well in this critical game. While I like Milwaukee's chances of an outright win, I could also see this one being decided right at the buzzer. Grab the points and look for the Bucks to move to 6-2 ATS their last eight, when tied in a playoff series. 

I'm playing ST. LOUIS on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Giants won big last night but I expect a much better effort from the Cards this evening. Note that the Giants were already banged-up an that Brandon Crawford left last night's game with a hamstring issue. Its possible it was a cramp, as manager Kapler indicated, and that he'll be back today. However, its also entirely possible that he gets today off. He's been huge for the Giants, so that would be a blow. Admittedly, Desclafani has been great. That said, Kim has arguably even better, recently. He hasn't allowed a single run in his past two starts, a span of 13 innings. Over his past three starts, he's allowed one run, which translates to a 0.50 ERA. In fact, he's allowed one earned run or less in five of his past six starts. While Kim recently blanked the Giants through seven innings, Desclafani gave up seven runs in 3 2/3 innings the last time he faced the Cards. I like and expect the Cards to win "outright." However, in a game where runs may be at a premium (O/U line is just 7.5) I'm happy to have an extra +1.5 runs to work with. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" from Kim and the Cards. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bucks showed that they were far from done on Sunday. Off that convincing win, their confidence restored, I expect them to "bring their best" once again on Wednesday. Its been my feeling that the Bucks play a lot better, after they know they can beat a team. Prior to Sunday, they'd lost every game this season to Phoenix. Now, however, the Bucks know they can beat this team. I mentioned that the loss of Saric hurt the Suns' depth. The Bucks also now have a blueprint for success - get Ayton in foul trouble. The Bucks are now 8-1 in their home playoff games. The last five of those wins came by 11, 15, 34, 11 and 20 points, all double-digit wins.The Bucks know that they're still essentially in "must win" territory. They can't afford to go down 3-1. Expect them to dig deep and come away with another critical win and cover. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Down 0-2, obviously, the Bucks desperately need this one. As impressive as the Suns have been, I'm not writing off Milwaukee yet. Antetokounmpo had this to say: "I think no matter what we say, we know what the deal is. It's as simple as that. We've got to go back home and do our job. They did their job. We've got to do our job. We've been here before and we were able to get the job done. Hopefully we can put ourselves in position and we can believe in one another and we can play together and we can have fun. We can compete and we can dive on the floor, we can make shots, put ourselves in a position to win the game. But, like, we know what the deal is, man. We got to go back home and protect home." The Suns lost some depth last game, as Saric is out for the series. Also, Torrey Craig went down and is questionable. The Bucks are 7-1 their last eight home playoff games. The last four of those wins came by 11, 15, 34 and 11 points, all double-digit wins. Expect them to dig deep and come away the critical win and cover. 

I'm playing on ITALY at 0.25 goals. Needless to say, this is an epic matchup. Italy has long been a soccer superpower. England has always had the talent but has historically, at least in my lifetime, come up short. While history won't have anything to with Sunday's match, I do think that England may be feeling some added pressure. One could argue that both teams had a "relatively" easy path to get here. That said, Italy defeated both Belgium and Spain. Both those teams are ranked far higher than Germany and Denmark, the two best teams which England defeated. Many North American bettors are unfamiliar with a line of +0.25 (+1/4) goals. Basically, when playing at 1/4, one is splitting the bet into two separate smaller wagers. One is at pk and the other is at +1/2 goals. While I do expect Italy to find a way to win, its possible that the deciding blow won't come until after 90 minutes. Both defenses have been stout. While Kane has found his form for England, I feel that Italy has more players capable of finding the back of the net. Don't be surprised when the Italians break the hearts of the English fans. Enjoy the game and good luck. 

I'm playing LA on the run-line. (-1.5 runs) I'm expecting this one to result in a rout. Off a loss and having dropped four of five, the champs are going to be all business. Note that LA's last six wins have all come by two or more runs. Buehler wasn't his best at Miami last time out, but still only allowed three earned runs. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in 10 straight starts. The Dodgers won seven of those, all seven wins coming by more than one run. On the season, Buehler is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA at home. Smith, on the other hand, is 0-3 with a 4.15 ERA on the road. Arizona is 1-7 in his eight starts overall. Arizona is still 11-36 on the road while LA is 28-13 at home. Look for the Dodgers to bounce back and improve on those stats, picking up the "run-line cover" along the way. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Hawks have enjoyed a great run but I believe it comes to an end tonight. As of this writing, Young is questionable while Giannis is doubtful. While this may not prove to be the case, my guess that Young plays and Giannis doesn't. Young may not be 100% if he does play though and the Bucks have also shown that they can still be a strong team without Giannis. Last game was one of their best. Also, recall their lone win against the Heat last year. That was the game Giannis got hurt. He'd play only 11 minutes or so. Yet, Middleton stepped up and scored 36 and Milwaukee did something it hadn't been able to do when it's star was on the floor. Note that they're 10-4 ATS (11-3 SU) their last 14, when leading in a playoff series and that the Bucks smell the blood in the water tonight. Regardless of who plays and who doesn't, knowing a date with Phoenix awaits, I see the Bucks improving on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA for the first half. Both games in Milwaukee saw the Bucks take the lead into the locker-room. In the opening game, the Bucks were up 59-54 at the break. Atlanta came back to win 116-113. Last game, the Bucks jumped all over the Hawks and were up 77-45 by halftime. Off that beating and now back home for the first time in the series, I expect a much stronger start from Trae Young and the Hawks. The last time that the Hawks were off a loss, they responded by winning the first half (at Philadelphia on 6/20) by a score of 48-46. In the NY series, the Hawks won the first game and lost the second. For Game 3, they returned home and were up big (58-44) by halftime. In the Philly series, the Hawks won Game 1 and lost Game 2. They ended up getting blown out when they returned home for Game 3. However, they were still close at halftime. Lets not forget that the Hawks' home record is better than the Bucks' road record. Trae Young noted: "...I've got to do better, and I will do better next game." The Atlanta star added: "It's exciting being able to go back home. We wanted to steal one on the road. We did that. So now (we get) to go home and play in front of our fans in the Eastern Conference Finals. It's going to be loud. It's going to be a lot of people there. It's going to be fun. I'm looking forward to just going out there and having fun and playing in front of all our Atlanta fans." Energized by the home crowd, expect the Hawks to come out firing, en route to their best "first half" of the series.

I'm playing on BELGIUM. With Ronaldo on the pitch, the defending champs are always dangerous. The star striker leads the tournament in goals both this year and is also the top scorer in International soccer of all-time. Ronaldo and co. were arguably only the third best team in their group though and now they're up against the #1 ranked team in the world. Everything fell into place for Portugal in the last tournament. The Belgium players and fans believe that its their turn now though and they know the window will soon close. Now, is their time. Ronaldo remains extremely dangerous. Belgium is loaded though. Lukaku is deadly dangerous himself though and the rest of the Belgian team is loaded. Both teams scored seven goals in the opening round. However, while Portugal conceded six, Belgium only allowed one. That was partly due to Portugal playing in a more difficult group but not entirely. Belgium is the superior defensive team. De Bruyne, Hazard and Witsell are all back and ready to go. While Portugal had to leave it all on the field to get here, Belgium is fresh. Expect Belgium's "golden generation" to get it done. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After getting upset in the opener, the Bucks are essentially in must-win mode. I expect them to respond with their very best effort. The last time that the Bucks lost, they responded with a 15-point win in their next game. They're 47-15 SU and 38-24 ATS their past 62, when off an upset loss. The Hawks are 2-3 ATS when leading a playoff series, 11-21 ATS in that situation over the years. After they won Game 1 at MGS, they lost Game 2 by nine. After they stole Game 1 at Philadelphia, they lost Game 2 by 16. Look for the Bucks to be all business in this one, evening the series and picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on CROATIA (Draw = No Bet.) This line has come down considerably, providing us with excellent value. It should be an exciting team, as both teams need to win. England and the Czech Republic, the other teams in the Group, have already punched their tickets to the next round. These teams both know they need a victory, in order to have a chance to join them. Note that while neither will be happy with the draw, it is still a possibility. So, I'm electing to play on the "Draw=No Bet" line. That said, I expect victory for Croatia. Yes, Scotland has the venue in its favor. The Scots are also the only team in the tournament which has yet to score though. Additionally, they're now dealing with the loss of Billy Gilmour, arguably their best player in the 0-0 draw with England. While its a been a disappointing tournament, this is an experienced and talented Croatia team, one which went to the finals of the last World Cup. Look for that experience to prove the difference this afternoon.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Hawks had their chance and they squandered it. Tonight, I expect the 76ers to show why they were the top seed. This is what they worked so hard for all year. So, that they can play these games at home. Trae Young (probable) has been ridiculous throughout the playoffs. Still, its ultimately a team game and he's up against a superior team. Note that he'll be playing with a sore shoulder, too. While I'm certain Young will play, Bogdanovic is questionable. If he can't play, or is less than 100%, that's a big blow. Remember, Reddish (and Hunter) remains out. The  76ers are 38-27-1 ATS (58.4%) as favorites. I see them pulling away for a double-digit win, improving to 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they played when a series was tied. 

I'm playing on LA. After dropping the first two games against Dallas, Kawhi and the Clippers responded with a convincing win in Game 3. Down 0-2 and desperate for a victory, I expect another Game 3 win and cover against Utah. While the Jazz were 23-15 on the road, the Clippers were 27-13 at home. That includes a 16-9-1 ATS (19-7 SU) mark when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. Even with the Game 2 loss, the Clippers are still 6-3 ATS their last nine, when trailing in a playoff series. They've been here before and there will be no panic. Last time on this floor, the Clippers won 126-111. Don't count them out yet. 

I'm playing MINNESOTA on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While Happ has struggled lately, he's still got a solid 3.81 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in five home starts. Needless to say, he'll be fired up to face a former team. Note that each of Happ's last two starts were decided by a single run. That's more than King can say. More suited for a role in relief, he's made two starts and the Yankees lost 5-2 and 6-2. In his lone road start, he gave up four runs (2 earned) in 2 1/3 innings. In fact, for his career, he's 0-4 with a 7.89 ERA as a starter. The Twins are 72-55 SU the past 100+ times they were off a loss. Expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST the "run-line cover" in this one. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Nets made it look easy in Game 2. The 125-86 beating they put on the Bucks was embarrassing. I'm not ready to just hand them the series though and I don't believe that the Bucks are either. Remember, the Nets were 21-17 on the road while the Bucks were 28-10 at home. The Nets outscored teams by 2.7 points on the road; the Bucks outscored visiting teams by 8.3 points. The home team won all three games in the regular season. The most recent one here saw the Bucks win by seven. Harden remains out. Jeff Green is also out. Note that the Nets were 0-2 ATS this season, after allowing less than 90 points. The last time it happed, they lost outright against the Bulls their next game. The Bucks are 22-8 SU and 18-11-1 ATS the past 30 times that they were off a double-digit loss. Even if they can't come back to win the series, this is their game. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Trae Young and the Hawks have been great in these playoffs. Tonight, however, they're walking into a hornet's nest. The 76'ers have paid their dues the past few years and they feel that this is their time. They earned the #1 seed by playing hard all season. While the Clippers pulled it off against the Mavs, the 76ers absolutely do not want to have to come back from an 0-2 hole, after dropping the first two at home. They're 9-2-1 ATS when off an upset loss and they'll be bringing all they've got tonight. Note that the Hawks are just 6-9 SU/ATS their last 15 when coming off an upset. While Atlanta has shown that it won't be an easy series, I say Philly pulls away and wins this one by double-digits.

I'm playing on LA. As you're likely aware, the road team has won all six games in this series. That's the first time that has ever happened. I say this will NOT be the first time that the road team wins all seven games. The Mavs had their chance to close the deal on Friday and they failed to do so. Kawhi elevated his game and the Clippers elevated their team defense. I believe that they've seized the momentum and I expect to see more of the same in Game 7. In Game 6, LA had its worst 3-point shooting percentage since Game 1. Yet, because of the extra intensity on defense, still found a way. While homecourt may not have meant anything so far, I'd still rather be playing Game 7 at home. So, would the Clippers, who have been tough here all year. Look for Kawhi and co. to dig deep and get it done, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Sometimes you need to lose, before you can win. The Bucks have stumbled in the playoffs in recent years and were upset by the Heat last season. This year, they looked to again be in some trouble in Game 1 against the Heat. However, they weathered the storm and won that game. That seemed to take some of the pressure off, as they dominated the rest of the series. While the Nets are obviously loaded, the Bucks are a tough matchup for them. Milwaukee already won both meetings in May. Also, note that the Nets' last two wins against the Bucks were both by three points or less. The Bucks typically play well with a layoff in between games; they're 12-2 SU the past 14 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. Expect them to give the Nets all they can handle with a great shot at the outright win.

I'm playing on BOSTON. Admittedly, the Nets have looked very good. Beating them won't be easy. However, lets keep things in perspective. The Nets won both games at home, as they were supposed to. However, they're now on the road; they're road record isn't as good as Boston's home record. The Celtics, 6-2 ATS when playing with two day's rest, are very well-coached and battle tested. They're still 7-3 ATS (8-2 SU) their last 10 first round playoff games. I backed the Celtics in their last game here; they stepped up and hammered the Wizards by 18 points, a dominant defensive effort. I expect them to be at their very best again Friday and am grabbing all those generous points. 

I'm playing ARIZONA on the run-line (+1.5 runs.) The Giants won big last night but I expect a much better effort from the Diamondbacks this evening. Cueto has better overall numbers than Kelly. However, Kelly has arguably been better of late. Cueto has a poor 5.84 ERA and 1.865 WHIP his past three starts. Kelly is 0-3 his past three starts but actually has a respectable 3.79 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in those games. In three home starts this season, he's got a 3.00 ERA, averaging six innings. Last time out, Kelly struck out 12 Dodger hitters without issuing a single walk. He went seven complete innings, the Diamondbacks losing 3-2. Including that result, three of Arizona's last five games have resulted in 1-run losses. That said, while I like the Dbax' chances of winning this one outright, I'm happy to grab the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. The Clippers are the more complete team in this matchup and I expect them to remind everyone of that in Game 1. Doncic is a great offensive player. Kawhi Leonard, however, is a champion. The Clippers' biggest star plays defense while the Mavs' top guy often does not. To be fair, Doncic has actually gotten much better at defense. However, he's not in Leonard's class. The Clippers average more points per game than the Mavs and they allow less per game. The Clippers are 19-11 ATS their past 30 against winning teams and 6-3 ATS (7-2 SU) their last nine, when playing with three day's rest in between games. While I'll happily take Leonard and George on their home floor against Doncic and Porzingis, its the Clippers' depth which really gives them an edge. They've got the better role players and more options off the bench. The Clippers won and covered in Game 1 in last year's playoffs against the Mavs, a 118-110 win as a -6.5 point favorite. I expect them to pull away for an even bigger win Saturday night. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. Everyone is pretty down on the Celtics right now. I feel that sentiment is providing us with excellent value. Yes, Boston is banged-up. Yes, missing Brown is a big deal. That said, so is coaching and playoff experience. This is a battle-tested team, one which knows what the playoffs are all about. While the Celtics are 15-11 SU/ATS in the playoffs the last couple of seasons, the Wizards are 0-0. Yes, some of their players have been in the playoffs before. Not as a team though. In a situation like this one, that matters. So does homecourt. The Celtics have beaten the Wizards four straight times here at Boston. They're 13-2 the past 15 meetings here. While they've obviously been really hot of late, the Wizards are still a sub-500 team on the road. The recent 30+ point comeback against the Spurs shows that this Boston team won't quit. When the smoke clears, I expect the Celtics to be the team still standing. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. True, the Bucks need to beat the Bulls in order to stay alive for the #2 seed. However, the reality is that even if they do beat the Bulls here, they still need the Nets to lose, at home, to the Cavs. Brooklyn is a double-digit favorite for that game. I see one shop currently listing the Nets at -1100 on the moneyline. In other words, the Bucks know that whatever they do this afternoon, its very likely not going to matter. That said, I expect the Bulls to actually be the hungrier team here. Its their last game and they'd like to close it out with a win. That's particularly true when up against a rival which has beaten them by double-digits in both meetings. The Bucks are just 3-10 ATS their last 13 against losing teams. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Cavs played a great game in their home finale (102-94 win over Boston) and I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. The Wizards have been playing a lot of close ones of late and they could easily be looking/thinking ahead to bigger games. Washington's last five games were decided by one, two, one, one and four points. Having been hammered by the Wizards, at Cleveland, a couple of weeks ago and now playing with "double-revenge," look for the Cavs to give their hosts all they can handle. 

I'm playing COLORADO on the puck-line. (-1.5 goals) The Avs have played a number of close ones recently, including a pair of 1-goal games against these same Kings. I say they put it all together for a more "lopsided" victory this evening though. The Kings are off an OT loss (2-1) in their home finale. That was against a St. Louis team locked into fourth. Tonight, however, they'll face a Colorado team with much to play for. Note that LA is a dismal 1-12 its last 13, after allowing two or fewer goals in its previous game. The Avs have fought hard to put themselves in this position. They're 6-1 their past seven, when playing the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Expect them to improve on those stats tonight, picking up the "puck-line cover" along the way. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Wizards kept things close when these teams met a couple of nights ago. They had a chance to win at the buzzer but ended up losing by a point. That opportunity squandered, I expect them to stumble this evening. The fact that the Bulls lost last night takes some pressure off Washington. Also, Westbrook now has the triple-double record and there could be a slight letdown after achieving that. Either way, the Wizards are still without Beal and the hungry Hawks will take advantage. The Wizards are 15-20 on the road and they give up 117.8 ppg on the road. (Over their last five games, they're allowing 132.4 ppg!) The Hawks, on the other hand, are 22-11 at home, allowing 109.8 ppg. The Hawks like these high-scoring up tempo games here as they're 13-6 ATS in games with an O/U line of 230 or more, including a 7-3 SU/ATS mark in home games with a total of 230 or more. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Give the Pelicans credit. It would have been easy for them to quit yesterday. They were down double-digits at halftime, at Charlotte. Playing without their two best players and their playoff prospects flickering. They didn't quit though and rallied all the way back to win. Still, they're up against a tougher opponent tonight and I expect last night's hard-fought effort, along with the injuries, to take a toll tonight. The Grizzlies will show no mercy. They've lost to these Pelicans twice already this season and the most recent was a 144-113 blowout. The Grizzlies, 11-6 ATS when avenging a home loss, will be happy to return the favor. Expect them to improve on those stats with a blowout of their own. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. I won with the Hornets in their last game and I like how they rallied late to pull away for the cover. I believe that they're catching the Pelicans at the right time. Not only is New Orleans really short-handed - no Zion, no Ingram (others, too) - but the Pelicans have realized that they won't be making the playoffs. They've fought hard but its not happening. While they deserve credit for fighting as hard as they did, I believe that Friday's 2-point loss at Philadelphia will serve as a gut punch to the Pelicans. The Hornets handled the Pelicans at New Orleans and they're 13-8 ATS when listed as favorites. Expect them to take advantage of their depleted guests this evening, cover the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Hornets got hammered by the Bulls last night. The fact that they're playing the second of b2b games works in our favor, by keeping the line lower than it easily could have been. This is a game that the Hornets need to have. The Magic are a bad team and they're severely banged up. In addition to needing the game and playing at home, the Hornets are more talented and have more depth. They're also 14-8 SU/ATS on the season, when off a double-digit loss. The Magic are off a 36-point loss of their own, as the depleted roster caught up with them. Look for the determined Hornets to pull away in this one, improving to 8-3 ATS their last 11 against teams from within their own division. 

I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. There's a real possibility that this will prove to be a preview of a first round playoff series. Either way, its hardly a fair fight. The Lakers remain short-handed and the Clippers aren't going to allow them to gain any confidence. While the Lakers are still without some key players, the Clippers have slowly been getting healthier. Though he only played 15 minutes, I like that they got Beverly back last game. The Clippers are the deeper team and he adds to that depth. I also like that Leonard now has a couple games under his belt. I really like how the Clippers rallied to erase a halftime deficit and win last game. They didn't get the cover but it was the type of victory which I feel that they will build momentum from. Factoring in a 104-86 Clipper blowout the last time that these teams met, the Lakers are just 6-13 ATS (4-15 SU) as underdogs. I say the Clippers keep the pedal to the metal and pull away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. While this is a big game for the Wizards, its a bigger game for the Raptors. In fact, its probably their biggest game of the entire season. A win doesn't guarantee them anything but a loss would be devastating. I believe that they're catching the Wizards at the right time. Yes, Washington has been extremely hot. However, the Wizards just left it all on the floor in a battle at Milwaukee, last night. They ended up losing by a single point. Not all b2b spots are equal and that's the type of loss which will often take a toll. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they lost against the Spurs. Coach Nurse acknowledged how huge this game is for the Raptors: "I would say that’s probably our last chance saloon a little bit, right? I think them getting that one against us would be awful tough for us to recover from ... " The Wizards tend to bring out the best in the Raptors and I expect that to be the case tonight. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Knicks have been on quite the run but I expect a trip to Denver to bring them back down to earth. The Nuggets hammered the Knicks (114-89) when the teams met at MSG. That's bad news for the Knicks as they're generally much better at home. They're 22-11 at home but just 15-17 on the road. The Nuggets are also stronger at home, as this has long been a tough venue to play at. The Nuggets are 19-12 on the road but 24-10 here at home. That includes a perfect 6-0 mark their last six games here. In fact, since late March, the Nuggets are 12-1 here and they're 15-2 here since mid-March. As I said, its a tough venue to play at. Making matters worse for the Knicks is that they're banged up at center. Robinson is out and Noel is questionable. I'll assume that Noel plays but even if he was 100%, which is unlikely, there's no stopping the MVP favorite. Jokic had a double-double in the first meeting and he's topped the 30 mark in b2b games. Look for Jokic to do his thing, the Nuggets staying hot at home, while covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. As you likely saw, these teams just played last night. The Warriors won 123-108. I don't believe that they're going to be able to beat the Pelicans two nights in a row here though. The last two times that the Warriors played the second of b2b games, they were up against Cleveland and Houston. Though GSW won and covered those games, those teams are both terrible. The Rockets are 16-49, worst in the NBA. The Cavs are 21-43, in a battle for the second worst position in the East. The last time that the Warriors faced a half decent team (Toronto) when playing the second of b2b games, they got crushed by a score of 130-77. Prior to that, they lost 124-108. Going back further finds the Warriors at just 10-22-1 ATS the past 33 times that the played the second of b2b games. The Pelicans, who are 2-0 SU/ATS the past couple of times that they played the second of b2b games, are 12-7 ATS the past 19 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. Expect them to make the necessary adjustments, up their intensity and improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on UTAH. I believe that this is going to prove to be a very tough spot for the Spurs. Not all b2b spots are equal and this is a difficult one for the Spurs. They're off a hard-fought OT loss last night. That was on the heels of another OT heart-breaker, a game where they blew a 30+ point lead. Prior to that, they lost a close one at Miami. I expect those close losses and extra OT minutes to take a toll on them tonight. While its true that the Spurs have played well in the revenge role, they'll get a chance for some revenge (again) on Wednesday, as these teams will face each other again, then. For tonight, I expect the Jazz to take advantage of the scheduling advantage. Utah is 27-4 and 20-11 ATS here this season. The Jazz are outscoring visiting teams by a dominating 117.5 to 103.8 margin here. Lay the points. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The 76ers have won four straight while the Bulls have dropped three in a row. No brainer on Philly, right? Not in my opinion. Rather, this one sets up very nicely for the Bulls, who play with double revenge from a pair of earlier losses. While Chicago had yesterday off, the 76ers are off an extremely hard fought OT win, at San Antonio. They're just 3-7-1 ATS their last 11, when playing the second of b2b games. As for the current streaks ... while the 76ers are 6-9 ATS after three or more consecutive wins, the Bulls are 7-4 ATS after three or more consecutive losses. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. I lost with the Celtics in their last game, after having successfully played on them in their previous game. Despite the fact that Boston came up a bucket short of covering, I really liked what I saw. The Spurs were practically flawless offensively in the first half. They moved the ball very well and were hitting their shots at a very high level. They'd scored a remarkable 77 points by halftime. It would have been easy for the Celtics to fold; I was worried they'd pull their starters. Tatum wouldn't let that happen though. The Celtics calmly went to work and fought all the way back to force OT. They eventually won 143-140. (If not for a late Patty Mills 3-pointer, the Celtics would have covered.) I believe thats the type of win that they'll build positive momentum from. Even off the non-cover, the Celtics are still 7-4 ATS their last 11 against teams with a winning record. The Blazers, on the other hand, are 4-8 ATS their last 12 against teams with a winning record. After this game, the Celtics get a couple of days off. On the other hand, Portland will play at Atlanta tomorrow. The Blazers are playing their fourth straight on the road. Look for the Celtics to leave it all on the floor (again) en route to their third straight win, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I like how this one sets up for the home team. The Bucks stumbled at Houston last night while the Bulls rested. The Bucks are at the end of a road trip and they've got b2b games against Brooklyn on deck. They're also likely to be without their superstar. While he was questionable due to his right ankle last night, Giannis started. However, he quickly turned that ankle and had to leave last night's game. That said, it appears highly unlikely that'll he go tonight. The Bulls have only played two home games since 4/17. They won those games by scores of 106-96 and 108-91. I say they're catching the Bucks at the right time. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. I won with the Celtics in their last game and I believe that they turned a corner in that one. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game. The Spurs are at the end of a 4-game road trip. They lost by five, at Miami, last game. The Celtics lost a close one earlier in the year, at San Antonio and the Spurs have given them problems here over the years. They're going to be motivated to change that tonight. They probably still won't have Walker back but are otherwise relatively healthy. The Celtics are 7-3 ATS their last 10 against teams with a winning record. Expect them to bring their best effort tonight, en route to picking us up the win and cover. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. Hornets are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Both teams played and lost yesterday. Both will want to bounce back tonight. The Celtics figure to be hungrier though. Not only have they now lost three straight but one of those losses came against these same Hornets, at Charlotte. Walker remains out. Taytum had last night off and the hope is that he'll be able to return tonight. Obviously, he's a difference maker. However, even in the event he doesn't go, the Celtics have more than enough to take care of business on their homecourt. Keep in mind that Charlotte, 0-4 ATS its last four as a road underdog, continues to play without the likes of Ball and Hayward. When these teams met here a few weeks ago, laying -9.5 points, Boston won by 30. The previous game here saw the Celtics win by 26. In fact, the Celtics are 7-0-1 ATS (8-0 SU) the last eight meetings here. Playing with "recent revenge" and looking to snap their skid, expect the highly motivated Celtics to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Grizzlies have been playing well and they beat me yesterday. This is a tough spot for them though and I'm willing to go against them, again. The Grizzlies had a shot to win here recently. Denver eked out a 2-OT win though. The Grizzlies weren't playing the second of b2b games for that one though. They're doing so here, while playing at elevation. Morant played 36 minutes while Valanciunus returned to played 30. They'll feel those minutes tonight, as this has been a brutal stretch. Its the end of a long 7-game road trip. It marks their 14th game since 4/4, a 22-day stretch, 11 of those coming on the road. This road trip started on 4/16. So, this marks their 7th road game in the past 11 days. This is still a tough place to play. Expect the Nuggets to be fresher as they get the "W" and cover the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. These teams just met here a couple of nights ago. The Grizzlies eked out a 2-point win. They'll also meet again on Wednesday, at Memphis. Not only will the Blazers be on the road for that one, they'll also be playing their second game in two nights. (They play at Indiana, on Tuesday.) In other words, they better win today's game or they could easily risk dropping all three of these games to Memphis. Indeed, off four straight losses and with their next six games on the road, including the one at Memphis, this is "must win" territory. That doesn't always means that teams perform, but in this case I believe that it will. The Blazers are 5-3 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss and they're 7-3 ATS when off an "upset" loss in their previous game. Both teams had yesterday off but the Blazers also have tomorrow off, while the Grizzlies will be play a revenge game vs. Denver. Look for the Blazers to leave it all on the floor, en route to an important win and cover.

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. Both teams played and lost last night. For the Pistons, it was just another loss. They've got 41 of them, most in the Eastern Conference. For the Spurs, they can't afford another home loss. April has presented the Spurs with a challenging schedule, as they only got to play five home games for the entire month. This is the last of those five and they lost the previous four. They play their next four on the road. Then, they get a single home game - and that's against a tough opponent in the 76'ers - before going back on the road again. In other words, they badly need to take care of business, at home, tonight. The Spurs are a profitable 9-5 ATS off a double-digit loss. Even off last night's loss, they're still 14-8 ATS against teams from the East. They beat the Pistons by 10, at Detroit, last month. When the teams last played here, the Spurs won by 27. I'm expecting another double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors need to keep winning and they're catching the Nets at the right time. Not only are the Nets off a win last night and playing their sixth game in the past nine days but they're also extremely short-handed. They had only nine players available last night and will likely be in a similar situation tonight. While the Nets are in a tough scheduling spot, the Raptors have had the past two days off. The Nets brings out the best in Toronto; the Raptors have won the past five meetings. Schedule in their favor, look for the Raptors to win their fourth straight overall, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing TORONTO on the puck-line (-1.5 goals) After getting hammered worse than any other team by Covid, the Canucks returned and scored the upset against the Leafs. Don't expect it to happen again. Many of the Canucks did indeed feel the virus more than other teams, perhaps the Brazil variant being to blame. They're still extremely short-handed and beating the top team in the division twice in a row like that is highly unlikely. Of course, thats why the Leafs are such heavy favorites on the moneyline. Still, we get them at a very fair price on the puck-line and I don't see this one being all that close. The Leafs, 13-3 their last 16 when playing with revenge, should jump all over their outmatched hosts right out of the gate. Expect the effects of all the off-time to catch up with the Canucks here, the Leafs bouncing back and winning by multiple goals. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Mavs could use a big win right now and the Kings are the perfect opponent to get it against. Off 9-straight losses, Sacramento is in freefall at the moment. Opportunities to snap the skid are on the horizon, just not yet. Not here. The Mavs won by 19 last time the teams met here, a 130-111 blowout. Having recently faced some top tier defensive teams, they're going to be happy to see Sacramento. Already, in April, Dallas has faced the Knicks twice. NY allows the fewest points in the league and also holds opposing teams to the lowest fg percentage. The Mavs have also faced the Jazz, Bucks and 76ers this month. Those three teams all rank in the top 5, in terms of opposing teams field goal percentage. The Kings, on the other hand, give up more points (118.8 ppg) than any team in the league. The Kings allow opposing teams to connect 49.1% of their field goals. That's also the worst mark in the NBA. This is the type of defense that Dallas can "get healthy" against. Expect the Mavs, 7-5 ATS (8-4 SU) when off an upset loss, to put up a big number and, ultimately, for the Kings to be unable to keep up.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Everyone is suddenly really down on the Bulls. They've dropped four in a row and now they're without LaVine. As a result, we're now able to get them as a home underdog. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that the Bulls were only +2 at Memphis, a few days ago. Now, they're at home, more desperate and playing with revenge, yet we're getting even more points. With all due respect to LaVine, that's providing us with excellent value. That recent 3/12 game, at Memphis, was a tough spot for the Bulls. While both teams were playing the second of b2b games, the Bulls were also playing their fourth road game in five nights. The Grizzlies took advantage. The Bulls are back home now though and they had yesterday off. They've still got plenty without LaVine and I expect their very best effort. Look for the Bulls to bounce back and move to 7-3 ATS their past 10, after having lost their previous three or more games. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Time change due to the protests. Assuming that doesn't stop the game from being played, that means we get some afternoon basketball. Either way, I was going to like the setup for the T-Wolves. We're getting some extra value due to the fact that the played yesterday. However, yesterday's game was a blowout loss where Towns didn't play. Towns is the "straw that stirs the drink" for this team and he should be back and good to go tonight. (Yesterday was the 1-year anniversary of his mother's passing and he attended a memorial in her honor.) So, I'm not bothered by the fact that they played yesterday. It should also be noted that the last time that the Wolves played the second of b2b games, they went on the road, at Philly, and stayed within single digits, as 14 point underdogs. Also, it was exactly one month ago when they beat Portland outright here, when playing the second of b2b games. As for the Bucks, they play at Atlanta tomorrow. Wihile he did return to practice yesterday, with Giannis still a bit banged up, its not out of the question that they save him for that game. Either way, this is a tough spot. That game at Atlanta tomorrow will be the final game of a 3-game road trip. However, if you consider that the Bucks only played one home game, prior to that trip, and that was preceded by six road games out West, I feel that the Bucks could well be getting road weary. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Wolves have been far more competitive lately. Expect them to give the Bucks all they can handle this afternoon. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I successfully played against the Bulls in their last game and I believe that this will prove to be another good spot to do so. The Bulls have a number of banged-up players, who have been playing through nagging minor injuries. Guys like LaVine and Markkanen. Of course, it didn't stop LaVine from scoring 50 last time out. Still, this has been a long road trip and I believe that the heavy minutes are starting to wear on them. I thought that was evident when they faded late in Friday's loss. Now, they're playing the fourth leg of a 5-game road trip, one which wraps up tomorrow night, at Memphis. While that may not seem like a "long road trip," consider that the Bulls only played one home game before the trip and that one was preceded by four road games. That being the case, the Bulls actually haven't played in the same city for b2b games for roughly three weeks, since they did so on 3/22 and 3/24. Meanwhile, Minnesota is quietly playing well right now. Last time out, the T-Wolves went on the road and took the Celtics to OT. They've won three of their last four home games, including each of their past two, wins against the Kings and Knicks. Overall, they're averaging 122 points their last five games, after topping the 135-mark on b2b occasions. I say they give the Bulls all they can handle, taking the game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the ouright win. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks had their win streak snapped on Wednesday. Prior to that, they'd won four straight, covering in each. Wednesday's game was their second game in two nights and it caught up to the Hawks. The shoe is on the other foot tonight though. While the Hawks had yesterday off to recover, the Bulls are off a win over the Raptors. Note that LaVine and others were banged up going into that game but still played fairly heavy minutes. The Bulls have won three of 10, when playing the second of b2b games. They're also 0-3 SU/ATS the past three times that they'd won their previous three games. The Hawks pounded the Bulls, at Chicago, earlier in the season. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to handle them once again. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. Tough spot for the Jazz as they're off a hard fought OT loss, at Phoenix. Don't expect the Blazers, who had yesterday off, to show them any sympathy. They haven't forgotten that the Jazz embarrassed them, at Portland, in their very first game of the season. They're also anxious to bounce back from Tuesday's blowout loss to the Clippers. Note that the Blazers are 4-2 SU/ATS when attempting to avenge a home loss and 6-4 ATS (7-3 SU) when off a double-digit loss. The O/U line is 230 or higher, at most shops, as of this writing. That suits the Blazers fine as they're also 10-4 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 230 or more. (The Jazz are 2-4 ATS in games with an O/U line of 230 or more.) While most might assume the Jazz play well off an upset loss, they're just 5-7 ATS in that situation. Portland's last two visits here were decided by three and six. Grab the points. 

I'm playing PITTSBURGH on the run-line (+1.5 runs) I won with the Cubs when these same two starters opposed each other on 4/3. That was at Wrigley though, where I mentioned that Arrieta had a career 2.29 ERA. I felt that he'd be fired up for his first game back. This afternoon, it'll be the Pirates who are happy to "return home," as this will be their home opener. In what is likely going to be a long season, this is one game they can get fired up for. The Pirates have beaten the Cubs three straight times here and they're 7-3 the last 10 as a host. One of those Chicago victories came by just a run. In other words, the Pirates would be 8-2 the last 10 meetings here, if getting an extra +1.5 runs in each. As for Arrieta ...  the last four times that Arrieta pitched here at Pittsburgh, while wearing a Cubs' uniform, Pittsburgh was a perfect 4-0. The Pirates won by scores of 12-0, 4-3, 8-4 and 8-4. Expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST a "run-line cover" in this one. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. Both teams come in playing well. However, I expect it to be the Heat which continue to do so. The Heat are a profitable 18-6 ATS their last 24 against teams from the Southwest. One of those losses came at Memphis, a few weeks ago. Morant dribbled the length of the floor with seconds left to break a tie. That tough loss triggered a 6-game SU/ATS skid for the Heat. Needless to say, they haven't forgotten and they absolutely want to avoid a repeat performance. Since the slide, the Heat have responded by going 4-0 SU/ATS their last four. During that span, they're allowing a mere 96.5 ppg, holding two of those opponents below 90. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, have allowed opponents to hit triple-digits in 10 straight games. The Heat have had two days off and they also get tomorrow off. (The Grizzlies have had one day off and they play at Atlanta, tomorrow.) Expect them to leave it all on the floor tonight, avenging the earlier loss and covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Laying this many points on the road is asking a lot of the Pelicans right now. They're banged-up. They've lost two in a row. Their last two wins both came by single-digits. They're only 7-14 SU on the road. Only once, in all of 2021, have they won a road game by more than six points. That was back in early February. While the Rockets have indeed been pretty bad, the Pelicans are just 6-14 ATS their last 20 against losing records. The teams have split a pair of games at New Orleans. Playing at home and catching them at the right time, look for the Rockets to give the Pelicans all they can handle here, picking up the cover with an excellent shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing OAKLAND on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Astros have taken the first two games of this series but I like the A's chances of bouncing back this afternoon. Irvin gets the start thanks to a superb spring. In five outings (three starts) he recorded a dominant 1.00 ERA. Through those 18 innings, he recorded 18 K's, while walking only three. While I do expect the A's to bounce back and score the moneyline upset, out of respect for McCullers, I'm happy to lay the reasonable price to get an extra +1.5 runs with the highly motivated home team. Expect Irvin to carry his positive momentum into the season, the A's bouncing back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.' 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Kings beat up on the Spurs here on Monday night. Don't expect it to happen again. Off that 132-115 victory, note that the Kings are just 2-7 ATS their last nine, after scoring 130 or more points in their previous game. Off that loss, note that the Spurs are 63-33-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. The Spurs are 7-4 ATS their last 11, off a double-digit loss. Needless to say, they're going to be highly motivated here. On Monday, the Kings hit 50% of their three point shots (8 of 19) compared to the Spurs' 10 of 27 (37%) mark. Also, the Kings got to the line 25 times compared to San Antonio getting to the line 14 times. I don't expect the Kings to have those edges in this one. Rather, look for the revenge-minded Spurs to make the necessary adjustments en route to bouncing back with an important win and cover. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN. I believe that Michigan is peaking at the right time. I successfully played against the Wolverines in their loss to Ohio State. However, I came back and supported the Wolverines in their win over LSU. Winning that game was no small task. The Tigers were a explosive team with a trio of extremely dangerous offensive threats. Yet, the Wolverines took their best punch and prevailed. The Seminoles represent a different type of threat but I backed the Wolverines once again. Michigan won with ease, looking every bit like the team which dominated the Big Ten most of the way this year. The Bruins beat me last game after I'd won with them in their previous game. They deserve plenty of credit for beating Alabama. That said, the Tide partially handed the gmae to them by missing 14 free throws. (That was the worst free throw performance by any team, with a minimum of 25 attempts, in this tournament, since 2003.) Michigan won't be nearly so generous. While the Bruins are 3-7 ATS the past 10 times that they were neutral court underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range, the Wolverines are 3-0 ATS their last three, as neutral court favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. Expect them to improve on those stats on Tuesday. 

I'm playing COLORADO on the puck-line. (-1.5 goals) The Ducks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Avs are going to be angry, off an OT loss against Vegas on Saturday. They don't lose often and when they do, they've been excellent at immediately boucing back. Off their most recent loss, the Avs responded with a 5-1 blowout victory. The Ducks played the Avs fairly tough through this season's first four meetings. However, Colorado's obvious edge in talent was evident in the last meeting, as the Avs pulled away for an 8-4 win. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I'm expecting another multi-goal win in this one. While the Avs had Sunday off, the Ducks are off a game against the Blues. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Ducks will also be playing their third game in the past four days. The Ducks have really struggled against top tier teams. Look for the Avs to be the fresher team, as they take care of business with a multi-goal win. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. After I backed the Cougars big in their win over Syracuse, I'm coming right back with them again here. The Beavers have been on a great run but, in my opinion, they haven't faced a defense, or a team, like this one. That might sound funny, given that they just beat Loyola-Illinois, the team which allows the fewest points in the league. The Cougars are #2 in that department though, allowing only 57.5 ppg, despite playing a tougher schedule. (Houston's strength of schedule was #77 compared to #97 for Loyola.) The big difference between the two defenses, however, is that Houston is #1 in the entire country in terms of opponents field goal percentage. At 41.3%, Loyola ranked towards the middle of the pack. Indeed, the Cougars are the best defensive team in the country. Unlike Loyola, Houston can also score. The Ramblers were an offensively challenged team which scores 67.7 ppg while Houston is an explosive offensive team which averages 76.9 ppg. Meanwhile, the Bears average only 70.8 ppg and they allow 67.7. So, the Beavers score six points less than Houston and they allow 10 points more. The Cougars are an excellent rebounding team. The Beavers are not. With the Beavers struggling to score, it all adds up to a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA. I won with the Bruins in their last game. However, Alabama is an entirely different team, a vastly superior one, to Abilene Christian. Alabama can beat teams with their offense or its defense. The Tide took care of Maryland with ease last game, a 96-77 blowout. The previous game, they showed they could dominate defensively, holding their first round opponent (Iona) to just 55 points. While the Bruins have been playing well, they won't be ready for what's waiting for them here. The Tide haven't lost in more than a month and all their wins over that stretch, with the exception of a 1-point win over LSU, have been by five or more points. The Tide may not score 96 again but they'll score more than enough to pull away for another win and cover.

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I love the matchup here. The Cougars were severely tested last round and I expect that to serve as a wake-up call. The Cougars have an outstanding backcourt; deep, talented and experienced. The well-coached Cougars can beat opponents from the outside and if teams try to sell out to guard the perimeter, then they dominate inside. However, its on the defensive side of the ball where they're really good. In fact, they allow a mere 57.9 ppg, opposing teams hitting just 37.3% of their field goals. (That's the best field goal percentage allowed in the entire country and second fewest points allowed in the country!) Syracuse, by comparison, allows more than 70 ppg, more than 76 ppg away from home. The Orange haven't fared too well in recent seasons against other top tier defenses - and they haven't faced one this good. Syracuse is just 7-13 ATS (6-14 SU) its last 20, against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. While they've put together a nice run without him, this is a matchup where the Orange could have really used Bourama Sidibe. Having not played since 3/21 and taking some practices off, Houston's Jarreau will be ready to play. While he may be less than 100%, he's a warrior and I expect him to be ready to go. Though they're the favorites, I feel that the pressure is a little less now on Houston. Not only is Syracuse a big name team from a top conference but down double-digits, late in the second half last game, the Cougars were already done. Look for them to carry the momentum from that comeback into Saturday's game, ultimately, their superior defense leading to the win and cover. 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS. Oral Roberts has been one of the best stories of the tournament. However, that story comes to an end here. In case you haven't noticed, the SEC turned out to be really good. Alabama is still looking strong. LSU very nearly knocked off Michigan. The Razorbacks have beaten both those teams, too. They're also off a win over a strong Texas Tech team. These teams actually met last season. While Arkansas won by "only" 11, its worth mentioning that the line for that game was -19.5. Yet, this Arkansas team is bigger and deeper. It wasn't that long ago that Oral Roberts lost by 15 to South Dakota State. So, this team can be blown out. I expect the Razorbacks, 16-6 ATS as favorites, to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way, pulling away for perhaps the biggest blowout of the weekend. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors didn't trade Kyle Lowry after all. I expect that to be a big relief and I look for them to make a determined push for the playoffs. While Powell (traded for Trent and Hood) was doing a lot, its Lowry who remains the heart and soul of the team. For now. He was +42 while on the floor last game. Siakim has admittedly been inconsistent. However, he's streaky and when he's on - as he is right now - he's very tough to stop. (Over his last two games, Siakim has 48 points and 18 rebounds.) The Suns beat the Raptors earlier in the season. However, Toronto was off to a terrible start at the time and that game was at Phoenix. Off a destruction of Denver last time out and now in their (temporary) "home," I expect the Raptors to get some payback. They're 8-5 ATS their last 13 in the 'revenge' role. Relieved from the deadline having passes, expect them to improve on those stats with a great shot at the outright win.

I'm playing on ORLANDO. The Magic have quietly been playing pretty well this month, particularly here at home. I believe that they're providing us with excellent value here. Through eight March games, Orlando is 5-3 ATS. That includes a 3-1 ATS mark at home and a 2-2 ATS record on the road. A closer look at the four March home games shows that even the lone 'non-cover' was actually just a 3-point SU loss. Last game here, the Magic beat Brooklyn outright. They also played very close games here against Miami, Atlanta and Dallas. None of those teams beat them by more than seven. The Nuggets are off a loss last time out and before that, they only beat Chicago by four. These teams will meet again in less than two weeks, at Denver. That one will set up favorably for the Nuggets, as the Magic will be off a late game at Utah the night before and playing the final leg of a 5-game road trip. This one, however, sets up nicely for the home team. Look for the Magic to continue their solid homecourt play this month, giving the Nuggets all they can handle with a great shot at the upset.