Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pats, who play at Pittsburgh next week, are playing their fourth road game in the past five weeks. This will mark their third straight divisional game. The lone home game they've played recently was against these same Dolphins. New England won and covered. The Dolphins have since snapped their skid, however, destroying Denver by a 35-9 margin here next week. The Dolphins are much better here. They've got a winning record here at home and they've outgained teams by an average margin of 349 to 286. I'm grabbing all those generous points. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* GAME OF WEEK). This is a great spot for the Bulls. Off back-to-back victories and three straight covers, Chicago comes in playing arguably its best basketball of the season. The Bulls, who had yesterday off, haven't forgotten that the Celtics eliminated them from the playoffs last season. The Celtics are of a win at Detroit yesterday and will now be playing their third road game in the past four days.

I'm playing on LA (10* GAME OF MONTH). Playing at one of the toughest environments in the league, the Eagles saw their run finally come to an end last week. Off that 24-10 setback, now playing on the west coast for the second straight week, I expect them to taste defeat again on Sunday. The Rams have been every bit as hot as the Eagles and check in off back-to-back impressive victories. While both teams have averaged an identical 30.1 ppg overall, the Eagles' average score dips to 25.2 when playing away from Philly. While the Eagles allow 20.7 ppg on the road, the Rams are allowing a mere 15.8 ppg at home. Expect homefield to prove significant, the Rams improving to 10-3. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, the Rockets have played very well away from Houston. That said, I believe they're being asked to lay too many points against what figures to be an extremely hungry Portland team. The Blazers haven't been underdogs this big all season - even when playing on the road. Already 0-3 on their current homestand and with a difficult road trip starting at Golden State coming up next, the Blazers know they could desperately use a victory tonight. They beat the Rockets by double-digits the last time that the teams met. Expect them to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Gophers may have the higher ranking. However, the Razorbacks are favored for good reason. Minnesota came back to earth last time out, a double-digit loss at Nebraska. The Hogs, on the other hand, bring plenty of confidence to the table. They've already beaten the likes of Oklahoma and UConn and they're off a 92-66 thrashing of Colorado State. With an O/U line in the mid-160s, note that Arkansas is a perfect 10-0 SU the past 10 times that it played a home game with an O/U line in the 160s, covering the spread in eight of those. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on CAL RIVERSIDE (10* BEST BET). Since upsetting Cal in their opener, the Highlanders have gone through a tough stretch. This figures to be a good spot to get back on track though. The Falcons, who lost vs. Abilene Christian last time out, are just 2-13 SU the past 15 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Now, they're being asked to lay points. The Highlanders have only lost one home game by more than two this season. With the line having climbed from its opener, I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on SF (10* PERS FAV). The Dons have lost this matchup each of the past two years. Tonight should be an excellent spot to get some payback. SF eked out a SU victory last time out, providing some confidence. Eastern Washington, on the other hand, lost by 19 points at Seattle. In fact, all five of this season's losses have been by double-digits. More of the same here. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* PERS FAV). Knowing that they'll face these same Hawks, at Altanta, in a few days, I expect the Magic to deliver a strong effort on their home floor this evening, as they attempt to "hold serve." The Magic played their last two games on the road and before that they'd faced the Warriors and Thunder. Yet, they still managed to split those games. Now, they face a team which they match up well against. With the Hawks just 3-9 on the road and off a 20-point loss against Brooklyn, expect the Magic to take advantage. 

I'm playing on DAYTON (10* ANNIHILATOR). I like how this one sets up for the home team. Tennessee Tech just saw a 6-game winning streak snapped last time out and may come in a bit deflated, as a result. The Flyers will be stepping down in class. They just gave Miss. State everything that it could handle. The last time that they faced a team (Akron) in a similar class as the one they'll face tonight, the won by 13 as an 8.5 point favorite. I expect them to pull away for another double-digit win this evening.

10* ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors. No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The Suns are playing the final game of a long six-game road trip and I think they have a predictable letdown here. In fact Phoenix comes in off a hugely satisfying 115-101 win over Philadelphia just last night. The Raptors on the other hand have had three whole nights off after beating the Pacers 120-115 in their latest action. And with another two days off after tonight’s contest, the Raptors will be completley focused on the task at hand. The Suns got the better of the Raptors 115-103 back on January 22nd, 2017, but the conditions favor a blowout for Toronto this time around. Lay the points with confidence, Raptors roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Notre Dame. Ball State comes in off an 83-63 win over INDPU, while Notre Dame enters off a 71-53 home victory over St. Francis. Ball State averages 80.5 PPG and allows 81.2. Clearly that’s not a recipie for success. The Cardinals have played two tough opponents in Oklahoma and Oregon this season, losing by 39 to the Sooners and falling 95-71 to the Ducks. Notre Dame though is on an entirely different level, coming in averaging 80.1 PPG and allowing just 61.9. After falling to Michigan State, the Irish bounced back with a solid win over St. Francis and I don’t foresee them “looking past” their opponent today either. Ball State is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory and all signs point to another letdown here. Lay the points, Irish roll.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Memphis Grizzlies. I base my picks on many different things. I consider myself among the best when it comes to finding which side is more “motivated” than the other in a particular contest and in this case, I don’t think there’s any need to doubt the Grizzlies’ overall focus today, as Memphis enters on an 11-game losing streak, most recently a 116-111 loss in Cleveland on Saturday night. Minnesota is just 6-6 on the road this season and plays at home against the Clippers on Sunday. And with a game against the lowly Clippers again on Wednesday, the Wolves could no doubt be caught looking ahead to that one, on top of also being fatigued in the second game of the back-to-back. Play on Memphis.

10* SUPER SPECIAL on Indiana. Indiana will be especially motivated here after it fell 69-55 to Michigan on the road on Monday. Indiana will in fact be looking to break a two-game slide. Iowa has also lost two straight, most recently a tough 77-73 setback at home to Penn State. These teams played twice last year and each won its home floor (Iowa won 96-90 in OT in Iowa City, before the Hoosiers got their revenge with a 95-73 win in the Big Ten Tournament to eliminate the Hawkeyes chance for an NCAA Tournament berth.) Iowa coach Fran McCaffery is just 5-7 all time agains the Hoosiers and I think his team will have a difficult time here in this hostile environment. Indiana has held its last five opponents to just 33.3 percent shooting from range, which I think spells doom for the streaky Hawkeyes. Lay the points, Hoosiers roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on UCLA. The Titans looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion. Detroit had dropped three in a row before a 91-83 victory over IUPU-Ft. Wayne on Tuesday. It wasn’t pretty either really, winning the shooting battle 47.6 percent to 44.3 percent. Detroit also committed 18 turnovers. The Titans got balanced scoring in that one, but now they face a red hot UCLA Bruins team which has won three straight (6-1 overall) and which just took care of business in a 75-66 victory over Cal State Bakersfield. In that game UCLA held the Roadrunners to just 29.9 percent shootng, while hitting 46 percent itself. With a much more “winnable” game upcoming against Toledo, I think the visitors simply go through the motions tonight. Lay the points as UCLA pulls away down the stretch. Bruins roll.

10* BEST BET on the Seattle Seahawks (8:30 EST). Seattle’s a game behind the Rams in the NFC West. Philadelphia has been amazing to this point, but this is a tough matchup. Nine wins in a row. Surely the Eagles have to be feeling pretty good about themselves at this point. Both teams come in off wins, with the Eagles handling the Bears 31-3 and Seattle surviving a potentially dangerous trap with a 24-13 road win in San Francisco. So far Carson Wentz and Philadelphia average 31.9 PPG and allow 17.4. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks average 24.2 PPG and allow 19.3. Wentz has looked unshakable to this point, but this is the opener of a tough three-game swing for the Eagles, with tough upcoming contests in LA and then in New York and suffice it to say, I’m finally expecting a letdown here. At 7-4 the Seahawks margin for error is extremely slim, especially considering how well the Rams are playing in their division. With a tough game in Jacksonville up next, I look for Seattle to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the closing moments. Grab the points.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Spurs look poised for a letdown here after a home and home sweep of the Grizzlies, most recently a 95-79 victory on Friday. OKC will look to take advantage and build off its 111-107 win at home over Minnesota, a victory which snapped a three-game slide. To say this is a revenge game as well would be a bit of an understatement, as SA has won four of the last five meetings, including a 104-101 home victory in the first matchup this year back in mid November. So far the Spurs average just 101.5 PPG, while allowing only 97.5. OKC averages 102.7 PPG and allows just 99.6. With a game at home tomorrow night against the Pistons, I believe the visitors get caught looking ahead tonight as well. And with a night off before a home game against the Nets, there’s no question that the Thunder can put their full attention onto the court tonight. I look for a comfortable home victory. Lay the points, Thunder roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on the Portland Trailblazers. Portland has won seven of its last ten, but it had its three-game win streak snapped in a 103-91 setback to Milwaukee in its its first game back after a five-game road trip. With three whole nights off after this one, I expect Portland to be much more focused this evening. The Blazers have to be loving their chances for a bounce back here as well as they’ve already beaten the Pelicans this year, most recently a convincing 103-93 victory on October 24th. New Orleans plays a tough one Utah on Friday night and will clearly be “gassed” here. I think the situation is right for a home side blowout. Lay the points, Blazers roll.

8* BEST BET on San Francisco. Arizona State hasn’t been ranked in nine years, but it is now (No. 21.) The Sun Devils have averaged 95.7 points. Arizona State is a smaller team which likes to push the pace and it gets balanced scoring as well. The Dons saw their three-game win streak come to an end in Tuesday’s 79-72 loss to UC Santa Barbara in their most recent action. San Francisco has also been getting production from its reserves, as the Dons’ bench has scored at least 26 points in five consecutive games. With a week off before a neutral site game against St. John’s, I think the Sun Devils have a small letdown here and look past their lowly opponent. While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do think that San Francisco has the depth to at the very least, keep this one competitive down the stretch. Grab the points.

10* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Central Florida. Memphis went 7-1 in AAC play, while UCF comes in at 12-0 overall, including 8-0 in league play. When these teams met in late September, it was UCF that flattened Memphis 40-13. The Tigers rebounded to win seven straight behind QB Riley Ferguson, who threw for 3,500 yards and had a 32:8 TD:INT this season. The Tigers roll into town averaging 47 PPG, but allowing an average of 453 YPG, which ranks the team 112th in the nation. UCF averages 48.3 PPG, but allows just 399 YPG (including just 72 rushing yards per contest.) Keep your eyes on UCF QB McKenzie Milton, who finished with 3,301 passing yards and a 30:6 TD:INT. The Memphis offense was awesome this season, but the defense leaves something to be desired. UCF destroyed Memphis earlier in the year and I think all signs point to a similar destruction this afternoon. Lay the points, UCF rolls.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE is on Oregon. The Ducks are going to be the more “desperate” team in my opinion, as they come in having lost two of their last three, most recently setbacks against UConn and Oklahoma. Conversely, the Broncos look poised for a letdown after consecutive victories over Loyola Marymount and Loyola-Chicago. Boise State though catches a Ducks team looking to atone for a lacklustre 71-63 OT loss to DePaul, followed by a 90-80 setback to the Cowboys. In fact, it’s safe to say that Oregon will be highly motivated here, as the 90 points given up to the Sooners was the most that the Ducks have allowed since 2015. Oregon is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 at home and I like it to bounce back with a convincing effort here. Lay the points, Ducks roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on the Oklahoma City Thunder. This is already a double revenge game for the Thunder, as the Wolves have taken both earlier meetings. OKC has lost three straight and five of its last six. Despite the losing streak, it’s still fourth in the league in defense by giving up an average of 99.3 PPG. Minnesota ranks tenth in scoring with 107.8 PPG. It’s a classic matchup of styles, but I think the Thunder are clearly the “hungrier” team. The Big 3 can’t be happy, especially Russell Westbrook, who took responsibility for his team’s mediocre start to the season recently. OKC also plays with double revenge. I’m banking on these motivational factors to be enough to get the Thunder over the hump in this one. Lay the points, OKC rolls.

10* MAIN EVENT on USC. Stanford was 7-2 in league play and posted a 38-20 win over Notre Dame last Saturday. USC was 8-1 in conference action and most recently held on for a 28-23 victory over UCLA last weekend. When these teams played in early September, it was the Trojans which smashed the Cardinal 42-24. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Stanford has been strong defensively this year overall, allowing just 20 PPG. However, when these teams met in September, USC piled up 623 yards of offense. The Trojans allow just 26 PPG, while posting 489 per contest of their own. USC QB Sam Darnold threw for four TD’s in the victory over the Cardinal in the first matchup this season and I have a hard time seeing Stanford fairing much better this time around either. Lay the points, Trojans roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Nevada. This is a matchup in the Mountain West-Missouri Valley Conference Challenge. Illinois State had its two game win streak snapped with a tough 64-62 OT loss to Charleston Southern on Saturday, while Nevada comes into this one unbeaten after a 67-54 road win over Hawaii on Saturday. The Redbirds average 75.3 PPG, while allowing 72.3. Nevada averages 84.3 PPG and allows just 67.3. Illinois State’s lack of depth (lost the majority of its starters from last year) is becoming very apparent. Nevada on the other hand is starting to dominate on both ends of the floor and it has to be feeling confident in friendly confines. Lay the points, Wolfpack rolls.

10* BEST BET on Iona. Iona is just 1-4, its lone win coming over Weber State. In the latest loss to Coastal Carolina, Rickey McGill put up 23 points and seven assists. Ohio has done a little better than its counterpart today, coming into this one sitting at 3-2 on the year. Most recently Ohio knocked off St. Mary’s, with Teyvion Kirk posting 20 points, five boards and six assists. The Gaels came out slow against the Chanticleers last time out, putting up 26 points in the first half. Iona though put up 58 points in the second and I think the team carries that momentum over here. Conversely, while Ohio does come in off back-to-back wins, note that its just 1-3 ATS in its last four after putting up more than 95 points in back-to-back outings previously (beat Indiana State 96-94 in four OT’s and then Saint Mary’s 96-77.) Grab the points, play on Iona.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE is on the Houston Rockets. Brooklyn comes in off a highly satisfying 98-88 road win against Memphis just last night as a 5.5 point underdog and suffice it to say, I’m expecting an immediate letdown here. The Rockets enter off their fourth straight win in a come-from-behind 117-102 victory over the Knicks at home on Saturday. Brooklyn averages 111.3 PPG, but allows 114.9. The Rockets average 113.5 PPG and allow just 103.4. Houston is 6-1 ATS this season on one or less days rest and has won ten of its last 11. The Nets had lost three straight before last night’s victory, but will clearly be “gassed,” as this is their third game in four days. All signs point to a blowout. Lay the points, Rockets roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on West Virginia. Both teams come into this one at 5-1. So far Missouri averages 83.4 PPG and gives up 66.2. Kassisus Robertson has averaged 13.7 points and 2.8 assists per game. It won’t be easy for WVU today obviously, as the Tigers have won four of their last six neutral site affairs. The Mountaineers have won five straight and average 88.7 PPG, while allowing 64.2. Jevon Carter averages 16.3 points and 5.8 assists per contest. WVU has also been sharp in neutal site games, going 7-3 in its last ten such cases. Missouri did have difficulty against Utah’s pressure defense earlier in the year, which doesn’t bode well facing the Mountaineers, a team which just held UCF to 45 points. Lay the points, WVU rolls.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on the Memphis Grizzlies. The Nets come to town off three straight losses, including a deflating 127-125 home setback to Portland on Friday. The Grizzlies can empahthize, as they’ll come into this one desperate after losing seven straight, most recently a 104-92 setback at Denver on Friday. The Nets average 111.3 PPG and allow 114.9. The Grizzlies average 99.4 PPG and allow 101. With a tough game tomorrow night in Houston, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead. And with two whole games off after tonight, the Grizzlies have no more excuses. I’m expecting a rout. Lay the points, Memphis rolls.

10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on BYU. Both teams have just three wins to their names. BYU comes in off a 16-10 loss to UMass, amassing just 299 total yards. Cougars’ QB Joe Critchlow was 21 of 45 for 257 yards, one TD and four picks. The Warriors can empahtize, as they come into the final game of the year on a four game slide, most recently falling 38-0 at Utah as a ten point dog. In that game Hawaii was outgained 475 to 318. Both teams have more questions than answers as we close the 2017/18 campaign, but note that BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road fav of three points or less, while Hawaii is a miserable 1-5 ATS in its last six as a home dog of three points or less. Hawaii’s pass defense has been atrocious and I like Critchlow to take advantage. Lay the points, BYU rolls.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Golden State. The Warriors annihilated the Bulls 143-94 last night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting the team to carry that momentum over here. The Pelicans come off a satisfying 115-91 win at Phoenix last night. New Orleans averages 108.6 PPG and concedes 109.2. Anthony Davis averages 25.9 points and 11.2 boards, while DeMarcus Cousins adds 26.5 points and 5.9 assists. Golden State now averages 117.4 PPG after last night’s destruction, while allowing 107.5. Kevin Durant averages 24.7 points, 6.8 boards and 6.5 assists per game. Both teams are coming off games just last night, which I feel gives the advantage to the home side here. I think the Pelicans come in content and the hungry Warriors once again lay the hammer down from start to finish. Lay the points.

10* ANNIHILATOR on the Phoenix Suns. I think the Pelicans have a letdown here after winning four of their last six, including an upset over San Antonio in their most recent. Phoenix has been terrible all year, but it’s looked a little better with two wins out of its last three. Note that this is a triple revenge game for Phoenix, who has dropped three straight in the series. The Suns almost had three wins in a row, but they’d suffer the 113-107 OT setback to Milwaukee on Wednesday. New Orleans is the better overall team, but with a game tomorrow night in Golden State, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors not only having a letdown here after the extended stretch of good play and off the upset, but also getting caught “looking ahead.” Look for the hungry Suns to take advantage and grab the points.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Indiana. One of these teams has been overacheiving, while the other has been underacheiving. EMU comes into this one at 4-0, most recently taking care of Howard. Suffice it to say, off four straight wins, I think the Eagles are primed for a letdown here. Indiana is 3-2, dropping its first two games, before then beating Howard, USF and Arkansas State. EMU hasn’t fared well in this spot for bettors over the years, going just 2-4 ATS in its last six after three or more consecutive SU wins. Indiana got out to the slow start, but the team has completely turned its performance around. I don’t foresee a letdown from the home side at Assembly Hall. Lay the points, Hoosiers roll.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Mississippi. Ole Miss needs one more win to become bowl eligible. Or, that in fact would be the case if it had not put a self-imposed bowl ban on itself before the season started. Despite that fact though, I look for Ole Miss to push for that sixth victory today. The Runnin Rebels failed to accomplish that in last week’s 31-24 setback to Texas A&M. I’m not calling for the outright upset here, but clearly Mississippi won’t be lacking for motivation today. The Rebels also play with revenge after Mississippi State crushed them 55-20 last season. The Ole Miss defense looked decent last week, giving up just 396 total yards. Its passing offense, led by Jordan Ta-amu, is ranked seventh in the nation. The Bulldogs needed to score 14 unanswered points in the final four minutes to beat Arkansas 28-21 last week. Mississippi State’s defense remains a strength and is a big reason why the team will be playing in a bowl in December. But as mentioned above though, the Rebels won’t be going down without a fight today in their final game of the year. Ole Miss enters averaging 335 passing YPG and I think Ta’amu will keep his team in this one late. Grab the points.

10* BEST BET on George Washington. This game is part of the Las Vegas Invitational. Xavier comes in of a 96-60 win over Hampton, while George Washington enters off a 67-65 loss to Rider on Monday. Xavier is 4-0, averaging 94.5 points and allowing just 63.5 to start the young season. The Colonials had an extremely poor shooting night against the Rams, going 44 percent from the floor and only 4 of 18 from range, and they still almost pulled off the victory. So far George Washington has averaged 70 points, while conceding 71. The Colonials have had their early difficulties, but the team features depth and it’s been competitive. George Washington’s defensive play has also been decent. I’m not calling for the outright upset here, but I do think the Colonials can catch the Musketeers a little complacent after their blazing start to the 2017/18 campaign in this neutral court affair. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Colonials.

8* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Virginia. Vanderbilt lost 93-89 in OT to USC on the 19th and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a letdown here as I think the Commodores come in “hung over” from that disappointing setback. Conversely, the Cavs come in off a momentum/confidence building 73-53 win over Monmouth on Sunday and I look for them to carry it over here. Vanderbilt actually had a ten-point lead mid way through the second half before completely falling apart and then losing in the extra period (14 costly turnovers ended up being the difference for Vanderbilt in the end in that one.) The Cavs are 4-0 thanks in large part to their depth. In their latest victory, freshman De’Andre Hunter came off the bench to score 23 points. Virginia has been suffocating teams with its defensive play as well, holding opponents to just 37.5 percent from the floor. Ultimately I believe that Virginia’s depth and superior defensive performance proves to be too much for Vanderbilt. Lay the points, Cavaliers roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Indiana. This is the Hoosier Tip Off Classic, which the Hoosiers are hosting at Assembely Hall. Arkansas State comes in off a 92-78 win over Howard on Monday, while Indiana posted a 70-53 home victory over USF last time out. Over their first three games the Red Wolves are averaging 74 points and allowing 75. Indiana has averaged 73 PPG and allowed 76 over its first four. The Hoosiers looked a lot better against South Florida though, shooting 47 percent from the floor and I think the team carries that momentum over here (also held the Bulls to just 34 percent shooting.) Arkansas State is allowing opponents to shoot 47 percent from the field, which is music to the ever improving Hoosiers ears. I’m expecting a rout, lay the points.

10* ANNIHILATOR on Pacific. Pacific will be the “hungrier” team here, it’s 0-3, while the Falcons could be caught a little flat-footed as they’re 2-0 to open the 2017/18 campaign. Pacific most recently fell 89-74 at Nevada. Jahlil Tripp was a standout with 24 points and 14 boards. Air Force most recently got the better of Canisius 93-79. The Falcons were never really challenged in that one, but I believe they’ll have their hands full with the Tigers’ versatile swingman Tripp. Pacific has the talent and depth to win this one outright, but in a contest which I envision being decided in the final moments, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan. Two teams enter unbeaten, only one team will leave the same way. Michigan posted a 61-47 home win over Southern Mississippi in its latest action, while LSU enters off a 105-86 victory over lowly Samford. The Wolverines started slowly, but looked sharp in the second half against the Golden Eagles, shooting 48.9 percent from the floor, while holding Southern Miss to just 40 percent. So far Michigan has averaged 73 points and allowed 59.3 over its first three gams. LSU has averaged 102 points over its first two ames, but it’s allowed an average of 72.5. However as mentioned off the top, the competition has been weak and clearly the Tigers face a much stiffer test in the Wolverines. These teams have performed at entirely different ends of the spectrum in “neutral court” affairs, with LSU going just 1-4 ATS in its last five such cases, while Michigan has gone 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site contests. LSU’s inexperience and lack of overall defensive pressure turns out to be its downfall today. Lay the points, Wolverines roll.

10* MAIN EVENT on the Seattle Seahawks. The Hawks come in off a hard-fought 22-16 win at division rival Arizona last week and are now 6-3 on the year. Both teams have looked horrible at times this season and really good in others. The Falcons looked great last weekend, handling a struggling Dallas team 27-7, but I think it’s primed for a letdown here in this tough atmosphere. The Falcons are a “dome” team and playing in the Pacific Northwest at this time of year is never an easy thing, even on the best of nights. Despite having some injuries to its defense (Richard Sherman), Seattle still holds a major advantage at home. With a three-game home stand starting next week and with division foe Tampa Bay up first, it’s also not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead. This spread could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Seahawks roll.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Charlotte Hornets. Charlotte finally got off the schneid, breaking a six-game slide with a 102-87 win over the Clippers on Saturday. Now the Hornets will look to push the pace and build off that victory and take advantage of a tired Wolves team which was in Detroit on Sunday. This is also a big time revenge contest for the Hornets, who lost to Detroit 112-94 on November 5th. No need to overthink this one. The Wolves defense is going to be tired here after a tough game in Detroit on Sunday, while the Hornets look to build off their latest win after an extended losing streak, while at the same time trying to avenge a loss to Minnesota just a couple of weeks ago. Lay the points, Charlotte rolls.

10* MAIN EVENT on the Dallas Cowboys. It’s “do-or-die” for the Cowboys this weekend, who will almost assuredly be out of the running with a loss to division leader Philadelphia tonight. The Eagles are 8-1 and look primed for a playoff push, but I think the team has a letdown here. Chemistry is difficult to build and often a “bye” week can actually be detrimental to a team which had been firing on cylinders for weeks heading into its break. Dallas is banged up without many key pieces on both sides of the ball missing, but it still has a Top 10 QB in Dak Prescott and an elite offensive line. The run game has taken a hit with Ezekiel Elliot’s suspension, but the defense also remains a strength of the team. On paper, clearly Carson Wentz and company are the better team right now. But I’m not throwing in the towel yet on Prescott. With their season in the balance, I like the Cowboys to at the very least, keep this one competitive unitl the final moments. Grab the points.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Phoenix Suns. I think the Bulls have a predictable letdown here after they broke their five game losing streak in their 123-120 victory at home over the Hornets. Conversely, I believe the Suns are going to build off their impressive 122-113 road victory at the Lakers on Friday, snapping a two-game slide. These bottom feeders split a pair of games last year, each winning on its home floor. Despite their latest win, the Bulls are still horrible offensively, ranked second to last in scoring with 94.8 PPG. The strength of the team lies on the defensive side as Chicago is allowing 104.2. The Suns can run with the best of them though, averaging 107.6 PPG, while allowing 116.6 per night. Phoenix catches a break facing a tired Bulls team. Lay the points, Suns roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Minnesota. The Western Carolina Catamounts opened the 2017/18 campaign with back-to-back losses, before finally scoring a victory over lowly Hiwassee College. Western Carolina though had 21 turnovers in that one and was also outshot 45.3 percent to 36.7 percent. Minnesota is rolling along at 3-0 to open the year, most recently hammering Niagara 107-81 on Wednesday. The Golden Gophers played swarming defense, holding the Purple Eagles to just 36.4 percent shooting, while countering with 53.8 percent themselves. I simply can’t see the Catamounts mustering any sort of offensive attack today and I don’t expect the Golden Gophers to waste this opportunity by “looking past” their opponent. This spread could in fact be a lot larger in my opinion. Lay the points, Minnesota rolls.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Charlotte Hornets. Both teams are coming off losses. Both teams played just last night. LA lost 118-113 in OT at Cleveland, while Charlotte fell 123-120 in OT at Chicago. LA has not been good whatsoever in this spot for bettors going 0-4 ATS in its last four in the second game of the back to back. Charlotte on the other hand is 2-1 ATS in the same position. Charlotte’s now lost six straight and in my opinion, it will absolutely be the “hungrier” team tonight. I’m banking on that being the difference, Hornets roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on St. Joseph’s. Princeton has not looked sharp to open the year, sitting at 0-2 SU/ATS. The Tigers went 14-0 in league play last season, but so far their offense has stalled. Princeton most recently fell 65-56 at home to BYU, shooting a poor 37.7 percent form the floor. So far Princeton has averaged 75 points over the first two games. The Hawks rebounded from an opening season loss to down UIC 86-82 in OT on Monday. St. Joe’s went on to shoot 45 percent from the floor. The Hawks have looked a big shaky defensively, but the offense is firing on all cylinders, putting up 98 and 86 points over the first two games respectively. St. Joe’s feautres three players shooting over 50 percent in the early going, which doesn’t bode well for a Tigers’ team which struggled by shooting only 37.7 percent in its home opener. I’m laying the points and expecting a rout.

10* BEST BET on the Sacramento Kings. The Blazers have more talent than the Kings, but so far Portland has struggled for the most part this year. The Blazers are just 5-5 in their last ten overall and come in averaging 104.6 PPG, while allowing 98.9. Beyond CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard though, the Blazers are thin. The hungry Kings looks to take advantage as they come in having lost ten of their last 12. So far Sacramento averages 93.6 PPG and allows 107.1. Clearly not a recipie for success, but I still like the Kings in this one. I expect Sacramento to leave it all on the line in this one as it looks to take advantage of home floor, before the second game of the back-to-back in Portland on Saturday.

10* CONFERENCE USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers need one more win to become bowl eligible and they’ll be risking life and limb today as they try to achieve that, while also snapping an untimely three-game slide. MTSU also needs one more win to become eligible, but it comes in on the other end of the mental spectrum, having won two straight, most recently 35-21 victory at Charlotte. With a much more “winnable” game at home against ODU to finish the campaign, the Blue Raiders could be caught looking ahead and have a letdown here. Last week WKU QB White looked sharp, finishing 28 of 41 for 334 yards, three TD’s and a pick. I look for White to build off that performance and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points as I look for the desperate home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Stanford. Northeastern enters off an 83-49 win over lowly Wentworth, while the Cardinal will be out to atone for a 67-61 home loss to Eastern Washington on Tuesday. The Huskies haven’t really been tested yet as they’d barely manage to get by Boston University 65-59 in their opener, before then crushing div. II Wentworth 83-49. Overall Northeastern has some talent, like Devon Begley, who was the third overall scorer on last year’s team. Despite that though, note that the Huskies were picked to finish sixth in the ten man CAA conference (they were just 15-16 overall last year.) Stanford was favored by 16 points in its outright loss to Eastern Washington. Reid Travis had 20 points on 6 of 14 shooting. The Cardinal looked strong in their first two games, beating Cal Poly and Pacific, but just couldn’t get anything to fall against the Eagles. I think they’ll bounce back here. The Huskies lack depth and they’re facing a much better team which comes in off an embarrassing effort. I’m expecting a beatdown. Lay the points, Stanford rolls.

10* THURSDAY ROAST on Ball State. Buffalo will need to win two straight to become bowl eligible. A game at lowly Ball State is just what the doctor ordered in Game 1. However, with a road game at league-leading Ohio next weekend, I think the Bulls are going to stumble here as they caught looking ahead. I’m not calling for the outright upset or anything, but 2-8 Ball State will look to play spoiler and notch another victory in front of the home town crowd. On paper, clearly the Bulls are the better team. However, there’s no question that the overall situation favors the underdog here (the Bulls are 1-2 ATS in their last three as a road fav.) Grab as many points as you can and expect a competitive affair. Play on Ball State.

10* GAME OF WEEK on Pacific. The UC Davis Aggies beat Northern Colorado 74-59 on Monday, outscoring the Bears 42-24 in the second half. The Tigers will be the hungrier team here though after their hard-fought 89-80 loss to Stanford in their opener. Pacific was able to post 49 points in the second half, which is impressive against the Cardinal and I look for the home side to carry that momentum over here. UC Davis does have talent, like Chima Moneke, who had 28 points in his team’s latest victory. But the Tigers also feature numerous weapons, including Mile Reynolds, who came off the bench in the loss to Stanford to chip in 20 points. The Tigers have gone toe to toe and blow for blow with the best in the country and nearly came out on top. UC Davis faces a stiff test today and I think it’ll stumble. Lay the points, Pacific rolls.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Miami Ohio. Miami Ohio needs to win its final two games of the year to become bowl eligible. With this game against 3-7 Eastern Michigan and 2-8 Ball State to close the campaign, the odds are actually in the Redhawks favor. But one thing at a time, up first are the Eagles. EMU has nothing to play for other than spoiler, as it lost for the seventh time in eight games in a 42-30 setback at CMU last Wednesday. The Redhawks come in on the other end of the spectrum, surging towards the finish line after winning for the second time in the last three games in a 24-14 home victory over Akron last Tuesday. Miami Ohio has domianted this series as well, winning nine straight, including a 28-15 road victory last October 29th. The Redhawks are the better team and they’re firing on all cylinders. They also won’t be lacking in motivation. Playing spoiler can only motivate a team so much and I simply don’t see that being enough for the Eagles in the end. Lay the points, Redhawks roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Stanford. Eastern Washington is 1-1. It’s yet to win on the road. So far it’s averaging 69 points and allowing 79. Clearly not a recipie for success. Bogdan Bliznyuk has been a standout, so far averaging 19 points and 5.5 boards. The road has not been kind to the Eagles though, who have lost five of their last seven away from friendly confines. The Cardinal are 2-0 and are so far averaging 83.5 points, while allowing 71. Reid Travis has been a beast, averaging 24.5 points and 3.5 assits per game. Stanford seems like a team on a mission this year after last season’s disappointment. Eastern Washington simply does not have the talent or depth to run with the surging Cardinal and in my opinion, this one definitely has blowout written all over it. Lay the points, Stanford rolls.

10* BEST BET on Toronto Raptors. Could the Rockets come in complacent here? It’s obviously very possible. Houston has won six in a row and must feel pretty good about itself. The Raptors on the other hand will be looking to get back on track after their two-game win streak was snapped in a tight 95-94 road loss in Boston on Sunday. Toronto averages 108.8 PPG and gives up 104.3. Houston averages 111.1 points and allows 102.9. These teams are evenly matched, as Toronto has more than enough firepower and depth to hang with the Rockets tonight. For me it boils down to which side is “hungrier.” I like Toronto to battle tough and to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points.

10* ANNIHILATOR on Kent State. Kent State is horrible. It’s 2-8 (lost 48-20 to WMU in its latest action.) The only thing that the Golden Flashes have to play for today is pride. Central Michigan is decent, it’s 6-5. The Chips became bowl eligible in last week’s 42-30 win at EMU last week and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. Kent State was blown out by WMU last weekend, but it will look to take advantage of a content Chips’ team and try to score the upset in its final home game of the year (at Akron next week.) I’ll point out, that while the Golden Flashes once again struggled offensively last week, the defense was in fact pretty decent, allowing 389 yards and limiting the Broncos to 3 of 15 on third downs (note that four of WMU’s TD’s were defensive.) Grab as many points as you can as Kent State delivers the solid cover with this ample spread.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Portland Trailblazers. The Nuggets look poised for a letdown here after winning five of their last six. So far Denver has averaged 106.2 PPG and given up 105.1, led by Nikola Jokic, with 17.2 points and 12 boards per game. Denver is 8-5, but Portland is just 6-6. The Blazers average 105.5 PPG and allow 100.7. Damian Lillard averages 25.2 PPG, while CJ McCollum adds 22.9 points and 4.3 boards. With three whole nights off after this game and after playing six straight at home, I absolutely believe that this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the visitors. The Blazers on the other hand have lost two straight and certainly won’t be lacking motivation today. I like the “hungrier” side to find a way to get the job done tonight. Blazers roll.   

10* ANNIHILATOR on Miami Dolphins. Carolina and Cam Newton in particular are both known for having “letdowns.” Other than two years ago when the Panthers made it to the Super Bowl, Netwon’s career in the NFL has showcased a ton of talent, but the lack of motivation to get over the hump at times. With their bye-week on deck, followed by two tough road games at the Jets and New Orleans, followed by home games against Minnesota, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and finishing off at Atlanta, there’s no question that this sets up as a letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. Miami QB Jay Cutler returned in last week’s loss to Oakland and looked brilliant, going 32 of 42 for 311 yards, three TD’s and no picks. The Fish only rank 31st in the league in total yards per game with 270.2, but the defense has been a strength, allowing only 315.4. The Panthers ranks 21st in total yards with 313.1 YPG, while ranked first in total yards allowed with 274.1. Carolina gets caught flat-footed and Cutler keeps his team competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh. Montanta comes in off a 72-60 win over lowly Whitworth. Ahmaad Rorie scored 21 points and dished out three assists, while Bobby Moorehead chipped in 14 points and nine boards. The Grizzlies have won four of their last five on the road, but they now face a hungry Pitt team which comes in off a tough 71-62 loss to Navy in its opener. Jared Wilson-Frame was a standout in the setback, pouring in 20 points, while Ryan Luther added 14 points and four assists. After the loss to Navy, I like the Panthers to bounce back at home here. Pitt has big expectations this year and it looked shaky overall in the loss to the Mids. But a game at home against the Grizzlies is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my opinion, as this is a favorable matchup for the Panthers across the board. Lay the points, Pittsburgh rolls.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Stanford. Stanford comes in off a solid 78-62 win over Cal Poly on Friday and I expect it to carry over that momentum. Reid Travis was tremendous in that one, finishing with 26 points and 12 boards. The Cardinal looked great in trransition, outscoring the Mustangs 11-2 on second-chance points, led by Travis with six offensive boards. A tough season opener for Pacific, which endured a terrible 2016/17 and which bowed out in the second round of the conference tournament. Travis presents a matchup problem for the Tigers. This one has blowout written all over it. Cardinal roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Portland. It’s a revenge game for Portland after it fell 77-76 to Portland State last December 20th. PSU has a new coach in Barret Peery, who comes in after serving as an assistant at Santa Clara. The Vikings aren’t expected to do so well this year, picked to finish eighth in the Big Sky Preseason Coaches Poll. In all Portland State returns two starters and eight lettermen, while bringing in seven new faces. Braxton Tucker (16.8) and Deontae North (13.7) are standouts. In the Pilots final tune-up (76-70 loss to Eastern Washington), Phillipp Hartwich had 15 points and 13 boards. Portland is coached by ex Trail Blazer Terry Porter, whose nine player incoming class has been ranked among the top recruiting classes in the nation. I think Portland is the deeper, better coached team which has the clear “revenge factor” advantage working in its favor. Home floor can’t be overlooked either. Pilots roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Utah Jazz. Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, as Miami averages 103.5 PPG, while Utah averages only 99.1 PPG. The Heat look poised for a letdown here in my opinion though after their 126-115 victory over the Suns on Wednesday. This is also the fifth game of a tough six game road trip, one which has seen the Heat exchanges losses with victories. Despite their losing streak though, the Jazz remain one of the top defensive clubs in the league and here’s the perfect opponent to get back on track against. Miami is content, tired and struggles offensively on the best of nights. I’m banking on a determined Jazz team to do more than enough to cover this spread.

10* GAME  OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are coming off a humbling 17-14 loss at home against the Redskins and will be eager to get back into the winners column after giving up the go-ahead TD with under a minute left to go in that one. The Cards mustered enough to beat the hapless 49ers 20-10 on the road last week with Drew Stanton under center, but clearly he’s going to have his hands full with Seattle’s top notched defensive unit. Seahawks’ kicker Blair Walsh uncharacteristically missed three FG’s in the first half from inside the 50 last week. The Hawks also uncharacteristically commited 16 penalties for 138 yards. QB Russell Wilson finished 24 of 45 for 297 yards, two TD’s and two picks. Overall Seattle ranks fourth in total offense with 378.6 YPG, while ranked 13th on the defensive side in allowing 322.5. Arizona averages 337.5 YPG and allows 349.8. Last week Arizona RB Adrian Peterson rushed 37 times for 159 yards. The defense was decent, but it did allow CJ Beathard to throw for 294 yards, while Stanton finished with 201 yards, two TD’s and a pick. The Seahawks have issues, there’s no question about it. On their offensive line, at RB and now with Earl Thomas gone from the secondary. But Seattle does have a Top 10 QB in Wilson. Stanton looked decent last Sunday, but I believe he takes a step back on the short week. Seahawks roll.

10* ROAST on Pittsburgh. UNC is 1-8 and has nothing to play for. Playing “spoiler” can only motivate a team so far and I don’t think the Tar Heels are going to muster enough of it to compete with the Panthers, who still seek one last win to become bowl eligible. UNC most recently fell 24-19 to No. 8 Miami last week. Tar Heels’ No. 1 QE Chazz Suratt was injured early and backup Nathan Elliot threw one TD and three picks in his place. The Panthers enter on the other end of the spectrum as they are off a 31-14 victory over Virginia. QB Ben DiNucci had an unspectacular 134 yards, but Pittsburgh looked great defensively and on special teams, as Quadree Anderson returned a 75-yard punt for a TD. The best thing you can say about Tar Heel football this year is that basketball season is just around the corner. I expect UNC to throw in the white towel early in this one. Panthers roll.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Orlando Magic. The Knicks are going to be gassed in the second game of the back-to-back with Charlotte at home on Tuesday night. The Knicks are for the most part an entirely different team without Carmelo Anthony directing the show, but they’re still only 1-4 ATS in their last five in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. And with a much more winnable game at home against the lowly Kings on deck (the start of an extended home stand), it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors also getting caught looking ahead to that favorable part of their schedule. Orlando won’t be leaving anything for granted after two straight losses, most recently a humbling 104-88 defeat to the league leading Celtics. The Knicks are averaging 104.7 PPG and allowing 104.9. The Magic average 109 PPG and allow 106.3. Seven of New York’s first ten games have come at home though and the road has not been kind to the Knicks over the years. I think that’ll again be the case here against this focused and hungry Magic team. Lay the points.

10* BLOWOUT on Miami Ohio. Akron needs just one more win to become bowl eligible (5-4), but Miami will need to run the table if it has any shot at a bowl berth. The Zips enter off a 21-20 win over Buffalo, while the Redhawks fell to Ohio 45-28 on Halloween. Note that this is a revenge game for Miami Ohio after it lost 35-13 at Akron last year. Akron is averaging just 331.1 YPG and allowing 444.2. The Zips lost one of their leading playmakers in Warren Ball early in October, but have still managed to find ways to win lately. But I think that changes this weekend. The Redhawks average 392.8 YPG and allows 365.9. QB Billy Bhal was 28 of 51 for 350 yards, three TD’s and two picks last week and I think he’ll have his chances today against this suspect Akron secondary. Both teams need a win, however I think the pressure is on Akron here as it gets caught looking ahead to its game against conference leading Ohio at home next week. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF YEAR on Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If you’ve followed me for any length of time then you know that I consider myself one of the best in locating teams which are more “motivated” than their opponents. Divisional contests are always emotional and mean a lot to both sides for obvious reasons, but in this case I simply feel that the Saints are going to be caught complacent here after five straight victories. This is essentially a “do-or-die” for the 2-5 Bucs as well, who would then officially be looking ahead to next season with a loss today. Tampa isn’t going to roll over. Besides, New Orleans’ last two victories have been less than impressive, winning in Green Bay against Brent Hundley, before then having to hold on for a 20-12 win over Mitch Trubisky and the Bears last weekend. Tampa simply couldn’t get anything going against the Panthers in last Sunday’s 17-3 home loss. QB Jameis Winston had an uncharacterstically difficult time, finishing 21 of 38 for 210 yards, zero TD’s and two INT’s. WR Mike Evans though was decent with 60 yards on five catches and he should be able to have a much more productive day against the Saints’ secondary. Clearly it won’t be easy in facing Drew Brees. Note though that the veteran has been showing some signs of slowing down already as he was just 23 of 28 for 299 yards and no TD’s last week. Note the Brees struggled in two games against Tampa as well last year, posting a 1:3 TD:INT. As I mentioned off the top, I believe that Tampa is the much more motivated side and I expect it to play like it this afternoon. Winston hasn’t forgotten how to play football and he still has plenty of weapons to utilize. The Saints are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, but if looked at a little closer, it appears as if New Orleans is getting the job done with smoke and mirrors. Should be a nail-biter, I’m grabbing the points.

10* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Hawaii. A couple of desperate 3-5 teams from the Mountain West collide on Saturday night. Hawaii has lost five of its last six, most recently falling 28-7 at home to SDSU last Saturday. UNLV looks set for a letdown here though after its 26-16 upset win over Fresno State on the road last Saturday. Hawaii holds the all time series lead 12-10, but UNLV has taken two straight, including a nail-biting 41-38 road win last October. Hawaii was unable to contain SDSU’s Rashaad Penny, who had a huge game last weekend. Overall Hawaii ranks 89th in scoring with 25.1 PPG, while ranked 107th in scoring defense in allowing 34.6. Warriors’ QB Dru Brown has 1,976 passing yards and a 13:7 TD:INT. UNLV averages 30 PPG and allows 33.6. Rebels’ QB Armani Rodgers is a poor 1,063 yards with a 5:4 TD:INT (does have 535 rushing yards and six scores on the ground.) But after last weekend’s big win over the Bulldogs, a victory which snapped Fresno State’s perfect conference mark, I believe UNLV has a predictable letdown here. I also believe that Brown can match pace with Rodgers down the stretch. Grab the points.

10* FIST-FIGHT on Utah. Both teams are struggling and each is desperate to reach the six-win mark, as both sit with a record of 4-4 currently. The Utes opened the season with four straight victories, but they’ve now dropped four in a row, most recently a 41-20 setback to Oregon. UCLA is just 2-4 in its last six, most recently succumbing 44-23 to Washington. In that game, QB Drew Rosen left in the third frame with an injury and he’s doubtful for this one (if he does manage to suit up, clearly he’s not going to be at 100%.) UCLA owns the worst run defense in the league, giving up an enormous 307.1 YPG this year. Last week the Huskies posted 333. UCLA backup QB Devon Modster was serviceable in Rosen’s replacement, but clearly he’s going to have his hands full today if he’s forced into the start. Utah can empahthize. Last week the Utes gave up 347 yards to the Ducks on the ground. Utah QB Tyler Huntley was 25 of 43 for 293 yards, two TD’s, but was sacked four times. Utah has problems in all three phases, but UCLA is in serious trouble now with the injury to Rosen. I think this is the perfect opponent for Huntley and the Utes to get untracked against. Utah rolls.

10* ROAST on Buffalo Bills. Buffalo is on a mission at 5-2, sitting just a 1/2 game back of first place in the tough AFC East. The Bills just smoked Oakland 34-14 at home last Sunday and I think the team is once again being underestimated in this matchup. Admittedly, the Jets have surprised me this year with their competitiveness, but the team has now dropped three straight and it has to be completely devastated after stumbling 25-20 at home to the Falcons last weekend (after having a late lead.) In the first matchup of the year between the teams, Buffalo pretty much controlled all three phases and came away with the convincing 21-12 victory at home back on September 10th. LeSean McCoy, Tyrod Taylor and the rest of the Bills’ offense have only gotten better since then. McCoy was dominant in last week’s win, posting 151 yards on 27 carries with a score. Josh McCown has been a revalation for the Jets this year, as he has 1,840 passing yards, 12 TD’s (but also seven picks.) Somehow though he’s kept his team competitive despite the Jets owning the 26th ranked defense (361.4 YPG given up) and the 23rd-ranked offense (307.9 YPG.) This is an important divisional matchup, but Buffalo is the correct call here. The Bills are playing with a “chip on their shoulders” right now and it definitely appears as if New York has run out of gas at this point. Buffalo rolls.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Charlotte Hornets. A great situational play here. Milwaukee is at home against Oklahoma City on Tuesday night and will clearly be “gassed” in the second game of the back-to-back. Charlotte has now won two straight in impressive fashion, beating Orlando 120-113 as a 4-point favorite, before then taking down Memphis 104-99 on the road Monday. Now throw in the fact that the Hornets play with the immediate “revenge” factor after losing to Milwaukee 103-94 on November 23rd and I think this line could easily be a lot larger. I’m banking on Charlotte to keep the good times roling and to avenge the earlier setback. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* PERS FAV). I previously successfully backed the Suns a couple of times, as I felt they were offering excellent line value and also as I felt they were in strong situational spots. Here, however, they're on the road while up against a superior team. They're not getting very many points and they're unlikely to "catch their opponent napping." Indeed, off back-to-back losses, the Nets are going to come in hungry. Knowing that they start a 5-game road trip after this, one which includes a stop at Phoenix on 11/6, expect the Nets, 33-16-1 ATS their past 50 against the Pacific Division, to take care of business tonight, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* PERS FAV). The Warriors are 0-3 ATS (2-1 SU) through their first three games here at Oracle. All three have been close. Tonight, however, I expect them to break through with their first home "blowout" win of the season. While the Warriors, who expect to have Livingston back, had last night off, the Pistons are off a late game at LA against the Clippers. (They'll return to LA for a Halloween game against the Lakers.) Playing the second of b2b road games is often tough. I expect it to be particularly difficult against the champs, who will be looking to run their guests right out of the building. The Warriors won last season's meeting here by 20. All signs point to another lopsided affair. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). Its true that the Celtics have dominated the Heat in recent seasons. They swept them 4-0 last season. With Boston off three straight wins, many are likely going to expect that series dominance to continue this evening. I'm not one of them, as I expect the Heat to rise to the occasion and get some payback. While it would obviously be nice to have Whiteside back, I like the matchup that (7-foot, 240-pound) Kelly Olynyk presents against his former team. While they lost to the Spurs last time out, the Heat are still 2-0 at home against Eastern Conference teams. What about the Celtics' 3-game winning streak? With Boston managing a 10-27 ATS record the past 2+ seasons, after winning three or more consecutive games, I'm not too worried about it. I'm backing what should be a highly motivated home team. 

I'm playing on BYU (10* BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK). Enough is enough. The Cougars badly need a victory and the Spartans should provide them the perfect opportunity to get one. Since playing a 'neutral' site game (not really!) at the Superdome against LSU, the Cougars' home games have come against Utah, Wisconsin and Boise State. Needless to say, all three of those teams are far stronger than SJ State. The Spartans have lost their four road games by an average score of 47 to 13.7 and they've been outgained in those games by an average of 530.7 yards to 350 yards. The Spartans are just 5-11 ATS (1-15 SU) the past 16 times that they were road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. Expect the Cougars to take out their frustrations on Saturday afternoon, bouncing back with a convincing blowout win. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Obviously, the Seminoles are not having the type of season that they were hoping for. Prior to the season beginning, few would have expected them to have half as many victories as Boston College, at this stage of the season. This should be an excellent spot for the Noles to get back on track though, while showing the ESPN audience that they're not as bad as their record indicates. Note that FSU is 2-0 SU/ATS against the Eagles the past two seasons, winning by a combined score of 59-7. 

While the Noles have thrived as small road favorites over the years, the Eagles have struggled as small home underdogs. Overall, the Eagles are just 5-12 ATS their last 17 home games. Off their loss vs. Louisville, note the Noles are a perfect 7-0 SU the last seven times that they were off a conference loss. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on NY. Its been a tough start to the season for the Knicks. It doesnt get any easier after this either. Next up comes Cleveland, Denver and Houston. That makes taking advantage of this winnable game that much more imperative. While the Nets are 3-0 at home, they're also 0-2 on the road. Those losses came at Orlando and Indiana, not exactly the most intimidating venues. The Knicks are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were a host in the series. Expect them to rise to the occaison and improve on those stats Friday night. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE (10* BEST BET). With all due respect to Toledo, which has admittedly been playing pretty well, I feel that this pointspread is too high. The Rockets, who could easily get caught looking past the Cardinals ahead to Northern Illinois, have yet to win a road game by more than 20 points. Speaking of not winning by more than 20, note that the Rockets were laying -20 (at Toledo) for last year's game but won by 19. The previous season, when the teams played here, the game was decided by 14 points. While Ball State has struggled of late, it has still won two of its three home games. Last week's home loss came on the heels of a bye and after they'd just played three straight on the road. With no travel in between games, for the first time since a 28-13 victory on 9/13, expect the Cards to show some pride, giving their guests a much tougher game than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX (10* BEST BET). The Suns sure aren't getting much respect. Admittedly, Bledsoe is a talented player. However, its often better to play without a player, if that player doesn't actually want to be part of the team. Without Bledsoe in the lineup, the Suns stepped up and beat Sacramento last time out. Now, having had Tuesday off, the Suns catch the Jazz off a late game at LA. With their next five games on the road, the Suns know they need to take advantage of a winnable home game. All three of last season's meetings were decided by seven or fewer points, including a 5-point game here at Phoenix. In another one that could well come down to the wire, I'm grabbing the generous points with the home dog. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX (10* GAME OF MONTH). Off to an 0-3 SU/ATS start and with five of their next six on the road, the Suns badly need a victory. I feel that the Kings will provide them with the perfect opportunity. While they gave up a whopping 130 points last time out, the Suns were playing on the road and were playing the second of b2b games. Now, they're back home and have had a day off. Note that the Suns are a lucrative 23-9-2 ATS the past 34 times that they'd allowed 130 or more points in their previous game. Its also worth noting that Phoenix is a profitable 39-24-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after a double-digit loss. The Kings have scored 100 or less in all three games and they managed only 79 last time out. This is a team which the Suns can handle and I expect them to do exactly that.

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Eagles won when these teams played at Washington earlier. I expect a much better effort from the revenge-minded Redskins in Monday's rematch. The Skins are 2-0 SU/ATS here the past couple of seasons, 14-9-2 ATS their last 25 here. While they did fail to cover at KC a couple of weeks ago, the Skins are still a healthy 5-2 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. In fact, they've thrived in that role for years, going 43-25 ATS their last 68. The Skins are also 5-2 ATS their past seven, when playing on the road with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. Meanwhile, during the same span, the Eagles are just 3-5 ATS when playing at home with an O/U line in the same range. Since losing outright at KC, the Eagles have seen three of their last four decided by five or less, two of those decided by a field goal or less. In what could well be another close one, I'm grabbing all the points I can get. 

I'm playing on SDSU (10* GAME OF WEEK). I waited to release this selection, as I was anticipating the line to fall. Now that is has, I'm ready to jump on it. The Bulldogs may have been better than the Aztecs last week but that doesn't mean that they're the better team. Even factoriing in last week's results, the Bulldogs are still just 3-8 SU their last 11 October games. During the same stretch, the Aztecs were 10-2 SU in October games, covering the spread in nine of those 10 victories. While the Aztecs are 14-3 their last 17 at home, the Bulldogs are 2-13 their last 15 on the road. The Aztecs, who are allowing a mere 264.7 yards per game in conference play, have beaten the Bulldogs by 14 each of the past two seasons. They've dominated this conference (18-3 21) and I'm expecting them to bounce back with another double-digit victory on Saturday night. 

I'm playing on BC (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Lions have been elminated from postseason contention. That doesn't mean that they're going to pack it in though. In fact, playing with "double-revenge" against the hated Eskimos, the pressure now officially off, I expect their very best effort. 

BC's Jeremiah Johnson noted: "New team, new week. We have to pull our pants up, tighten up our ties a little more and let it loose. I know we have more than enough guys on this team to finish this thing off 3-0. We're professionals. Any competitor doesn't want to go out with a bad taste in their mouth, whether it's for a playoff spot or different."

While the Lions remain a profitable 7-3 ATS off two or more consecutive losses, the Eskimos are just 9-15 ATS off two or more consecutive wins. Going back further finds them at a money-burning 38-63 ATS in that situation, over the years. Look for the Lions to show some pride and for them to bounce back with a big effort. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE (10* PERS FAV). Both teams played last night, the Blazers won while the Bucks lost. I expect that to make the Bucks a little more "desperate" than their guests tonight. The Bucks took both meetings last season, including a 115-107 victory here at Milwaukee. They also beat the Blazers here the previous season. While the Blazers were 16-18 ATS when playing the second of b2b games the past couple of seasons, the Bucks were 21-17 ATS in that situation. Expect homecourt to make the difference, the Bucks bouncing back with a victory, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO (10* MAIN EVENT). Its true that the Rams have dominated the Lobos in recent seasons. Its also true that New Mexico is coming off an embarrassing 38-0 loss. Those two facts have helped in providing us with very generous line value on the Lobos on Friday night. Note that CSU was only laying -3 the last time it played here. (That one was close the whole way and finished with a final score of 28-21.) Also, keep in mind that the Rams are playing their fourth road game in their past five, a difficult scheduling situation. Additionally, consider that the Rams only beat Nevada by two points last week, despite being a 24-point favorite. Meanwhile, New Mexico is actually an outstanding 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU!) the last six times it was off a conference loss. The Lobos are 2-1 here at home, the lone loss coming by only two points. Last time here? The Lobos hammered Air Force by a 58-38 margin. Expect them to bounce back with a much better effort, en route to AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. While Memphis has the higher rating, I believe Houston, 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS its last five on a Thursday, is favored for good reason. Memphis is just 2-8 ATS the past couple of seasons, off a conference win and 3-9 ATS off b2b SU victories. They're just 15-35 ATS their last 50 lined games, in that situation. After losing by four last season, the Cougars have payback on their minds. Expect them to come away with the victory, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DETROIT (10* PERS FAV). I expect homecourt to make the difference in this one and I feel that the low line is offering us excellent value. The Pistons took three of four meetings last season, including both here at Detroit. Note that they were laying -5 and -5.5 for those games. The addition of Bradley should serve them well tonight. He's an excellent defender and is going to give the Charlotte rookies (Bacon and Monk) a difficult time. The Hornets were 14-27 on the road last season, while the Pistons were 24-17 at home, outscoring teams by an average of 103 to 98.9. Detroit wins, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on GSW (10* MAIN EVENT). Anyone waiting for the "Warriors' era" to come to an end is probably going to have to wait a long time. The team resigned Curry, Durant, Iguodala, Livingston, McGee, Pachulia and West while also bringing in Nick Young and Omri Casspi. They have the potential to be every bit as good as last season. The Rockets added Chris Paul in the offeseason. Any team with both Harden and Paul in the backcourt is obviously going to be dangerous. However, I'm betting that it will take at least a game or two for the chemistry to really be there. Remember, this Warrior team is a tight cohesive unit, a well-oiled machine, the players knowing exactly what to expect from each other. I'll be at the game, watching the ring ceremony. It should be a good one and I ultimately expect the Warriors to win by double-digits.

*With this purchase, you will be helping the victims of the California fires. I will be donating part of the proceeds to the Napa Valley Community Disaster Relief Fund. Thank you for your support. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF MONTH). This is an extremely tough spot for the 49ers. Not very talented to begin with, the 49ers are off to an 0-5 start. To their credit, they've remained competitive; each of their last four losses have come by three or fewer points. Those type of losses catch up to a team though. Now, off an OT loss vs. the lowly Colts, they're stepping up in class and playing another early game, their third straight on the road. Note that SF is just 1-3 ATS (0-4 SU) its last four as a road underdog in the 7.5 to 10 range. Going back further finds the 49ers at 9-16 ATS (4-21 SU) their last 25 in that role. Meanwhile, the Skins come in refreshed, as they're off a bye. In their last game here, the Skins hammered Oakland by a 27-10 margin. With the schedule in their favor, I'm expecting another double-digit win here. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). With last week's upset of Michigan, the Spartans just won their Super Bowl. Off that massive victory, I feel they're going to have trouble producing the same type of intensity for a road game against the Gophers. That'll prove costly though as Minnesota, which is off back-to-back losses, is going to come in hungry. It should be noted that the Spartans are 0-6 ATS their last six as road favorites. Meanwhile, during the same span, the Gophers are a perfect 4-0 ATS, when coming off consecutive losses. Thats a combined 10-0 ATS; numbers I expect to improve on Saturday.

I'm playing on CAL (10* MAIN EVENT). These teams have been going in opposite directions. The Cougars have won all six of their games while the Bears are off three straight losses. Those results have helped in providing us with an extremely generous line. Keep in mind that two of Cal's three losses came on the road and that the other was against USC. The Bears covered that one, losing by 10. The Cougs are in unchartered territory. They followed up their upset of USC with a road win at Oregon. Off those huge victories, on a short week and playing their second straight road game - the only time this season that they'll play consecutive games outside the state of Washington - I believe this is going to prove to be a tough spot. Give me all those points with the highly motivated home underdog.

I'm playing on HAMILTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Ti-Cats have had this game circled, ever since Calgary beat them by an embarrassing 60-1 margin earlier in the season. That was rock-bottom for Hamilton, the loss dropped them to 0-5. It was the first time the Ti-Cats had started 0-5 since 2007 (when they finished 3-15) and it marked the biggest margin of victory in Calgary's franchise history. The 'Cats are playing much better these days though. They're off a dominating 30-12 victory at Winnipeg, winning as a double-digit underdog. They've now won four of their last six games - note that both the losses came by single-digits. Admittedly, the Stamps are still a very strong team, one which comes in on a roll. That said, they're 0-3 ATS the last three times that they were listed as road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range and I expect them to find a very determined Hamilton team waiting for them. Expect AT LEAST a cover from the revenge-minded home underdog.

I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* MAIN EVENT). Both teams are rolling. The Panthers are off back-to-back highly impressive road wins; the Eagles have won three straight, most recently a blowout of Arizona. I believe that the short week and home field advantage are going to work in the Panthers' favor here though. The Eagles, who have a divsional (Monday Night) showdown vs Washington on deck, are 3-4 ATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points, the past couple of seasons. During that span, they're also 3-5 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. The Panthers have no reason to "look ahead," as they've got the Bears on deck. The Panthers have been a "streaky" team in recent seasons. They're 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points; I look for them to improve on those stats Thursday night. 

I'm playing on TEXAS STATE (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, the Bobcats still have a way to go. This is a much improved team from the one which finished 2-10 last season though. The Bobcats are far more experienced than they were last year and they've now got a coach in his second season here. On the other hand, I don't believe that the Cajuns are necessarily as strong as they were last season. Thats not surprising, given that they lost their QB, their top RB and their top WR. Yet, last season, the Cajuns were laying only -5.5. True, that game was at Texas State, while this one is at Lafayette. Still, we're now getting a far more generous line to work with. I don't believe the 2-3 Cajuns have shown they deserve to be laying this high a number. Both their wins came by five points or less. The Cajuns are now 5-9 ATS here the past 2+ seasons. They're also 0-2 ATS the last two times that they were favored in the 10.5 to 21 point range. Give me all the points I can get. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). At 1-3 for a third consecutive season, it makes sense that the Bears are turning to Mitchell Trubisky. The decision to start the second overall pick certainly makes the game more interesting. That doesn't mean its going to help the Bears win the game though. Trubisky faces a tough task. Playing his first game, in front of the Monday night spotlight, while facing a dangerous division rival. (Even in a loss last week, the Vikings D allowed just 251 total yards.)

Unlike the Bears, who already have to realize the playoffs are an extreme longshot, the Vikes still have hope for their season. That said, already 0-1 within the division and facing GB next week, Minnesota knows it cant afford to slip up here. 

While they lost vs. Detroit last week, the Vikes are 9-2 ATS their last 11, when off a division game. While the loss of Cook stings a little, as he was poised for a big season, I believe the Vikes are the more complete team right now. I'm laying the small number and expecting a win and cover.

I'm playing on EDMONTON (10* GOM). The Eskimos badly need a win and the Als are the perfect opponent for them to get one against. Not only is Montreal really struggling right now, to put it lightly, but the Eskimos have dominated this rivalry for years. True, the Als did play the Eskimos close earlier, Edmonton winning by only four. However, that was before the Als completely fell apart. Two weeks after the 4-point loss at Edmonton, the Als actually won at Calgary. However, they're no longer the same team. Last week, the Stamps came here to Montreal and beat the Als by a score of 59-11. That dropped Montreal to 0-7 SU/ATS its last seven games. Six of those seven losses came by 14 or more points. Facing a much better Montreal team, the Eskimos won by 20 (40-20) the last time they played here. Prior to the earlier non-cover at Edmonton, the Eskimos had been 6-0 SU/ATS their preivous six in the series. Expect them to continue that dominance, another double-digit victory for the visitors. 

I'm playing on BYU 10* MAIN EVENT. Both these teams are off to disappointing starts to the season; each lost again last week. The Cougars lost 40-24, at Utah State. The Broncos, who were favored by two touchdowns, vs. Virginia, lost 42-23. Playing at home, I expect BYU to be the team which bounces back with an ATS victory. These teams have met each of the past five seasons and the home team has earned the SU victory in each game. The Cougars, who were 4-1 ATS in those games, won the last two meetings here at BYU by scores of 35-24 and 37-20. After they lost by one at Boise last season, grab the points with the revenge-minded Cougars.

I'm playing on NC STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). While I respect the Cardinals, I feel that they're in for a very tough test on Thursday. Off four straight wins, the Wolfpack come in full of confidence. This team has talent on both sides of the ball, one with a win at Tallahassee under its belt. That win over Florida State, its best game of the season, was the only time that NC State has been an underdog this season. 

The Cards are without Jaylen Smith, their top receiver. That didnt cost them in last week's easy game but may prove more costly here. Petrino said this of Smith: "He won't play next week. It's a sad thing. He's been playing really, really well for us, and he's our go-to guy, and he's going to be out for a while."

With last week's non-cover at vs. Murray State, the Cards are just 2-7 ATS in Weeks 5-9 the past 2+ seasons. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The 49ers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The fact that the Cards are off a nationally televised loss and playing on a short week, has kept this line lower than it easily could have been. The Cards are going to be in an angry mood and the winless 49ers should be the perfect opponent to take it out on. The Cards are 4-0 against the 49ers the past two seasons. They won the two games here by a combined score of 70-27. I believe the class difference is going to be evident and I'm expecting a blowout. 

I'm playing on LSU (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Trojans are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After getting hammered at Miss. State a couple of weeks ago, the Tigers strugged with Syracuse last week. They eventually finished off the Orange though, pulling away for a 35-26 win. Having prevailed, that "wakeup call" officially behind them and with four games now under their belt, I expect the Tigers to put together a complete game here. Note that LSU was 6-1 ATS (7-0 SU) in Weeks 5-9 the past two seasons. While Troy has just one win its last 20 games against SEC opponents, LSU is 10-6 ATS (16-0 SU) its last 16 against the Sun Belt. I'm expecting a blowout. 

I'm playing on BYU (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Cougars check in off three straight losses and with an ugly 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) record on the season. Those results have worked in our favor by keeping this line lower than it could have easily been. Keep in mind that the Cougars were laying -17 for last season's game. Granted, that was at BYU. However, the point remains that this line could easily be higher.

The Cougars won last year's game by a a 28-10 margin, by the way. They had a 249-97 edge on the ground, a 26-11 advantage in first downs. The previous year, the Cougars came here to play. Favored by a field goal, they won by a score of 51-28. Once again, BYU had a big edge on the ground, outgaining the Aggies by a 202-74 mark, in terms of rushing yards.

In fairness to BYU, the last three games (LSU, Utah, Wisconsin) have been pretty tough. The Cougars were underdogs in each, so losing them all wasn't a shock. Needless to say, the Aggies represent a considerable step down in class. 

This is BYU's first "true road game;" the Cougars are 7-2 ATS on the road the past couple of seasons. With the Aggies just 3-10 ATS (1-12 SU) as underdogs, during the same stretch, lay the small number and expect the Cougars to "get healthy" on an opponent which they know they can dominate. 

I'm playing on GB (10* NFC NORTH GAME OF MONTH). While they ulimately prevailed, the Packers had some trouble with a determined Bengals team on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Bears played with desperation and upset Pittsburgh. Those results didn't surprise me, as I won with both the Bengals and the Bears. This time, however, the Bears are on the road. The short week favors the Packers, who played here Sunday and don't have to go anywhere. The Bears were destroyed (29-7) in their lone road game. The Pack have long dominated this series and they beat the Bears by a score of 26-10 in last season's game here. I'm expecting another double-digit win on Thursday.

I'm playing Texas on the Run-Line (+1.5 runs, 8* ANNIHILATOR)). I actually like the Rangers to win this game "outright." However, if they're going to give me an extra +1.5 runs at such a reasonable rate, in a game that could well be "close," I'm happy to take them.

Speaking of "close games," facing these same A's, Gonzalez lost his last start by a 1-0 score. He allowed that lone run, while pitching six complete innings. He's only had four starts here, since coming over from Chicago. He's been getting stronger each time out and he'll be looking to close the season on a high. 

Manaea was scratched with a bad bad for his last start. That being the case, its hard to figure exactly why they're sending him out for one final meaningless night start on the road. He's 5-7 with a 4.86 ERA on the road, not nearly as good as his home starts. He's also been MUCH worse when pitching at night than during the day. In 11 daytime starts, Manaea is 6-1 with a 3.57 ERA. However, at night, he's 5-9 with a poor 5.26 ERA. Additionally, Manaea is 0-2 with a 6.50 ERA in three career starts here, at Globe Life Park.