Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on CHARLESTON SOUTHERN. I believe that this line is too high. Winthrop may be the class of the conference but the Buccaneers are an experienced team which, in my opinion, is better than many realize. Note that Charleston Southern's only loss of greater than 12 points was on the road, at NC State. The Bucanneers, still 21-12 SU their last 33 home lined games, believe that they can win this game and they've had it circled. Winthrop can score but it also gives up 75 ppg. The Eagles won the most recent meeting by 17. However, the Bucs won the previous meeting and the three before that were all decided by four or less. Look for the Buccaneers to bring their "A game," and for this one to prove closer than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on the NEW YORK GIANTS. Only in 2020 would these teams still be alive for the playoffs. Yet, thats the situation. If Washington were to somehow lose on Sunday night, which is entirely possible, the winner of this game goes to the playoffs. I successfully played against the Giants in their very first game of the season, a loss against the Steelers. At the time, I stated the following: "....With quite a few years in the Patriots' organization and coming highly recommended from Belichick, its entirely possible that Joe Judge will go on to have a successful head coaching career. However, before that ever happens, I expect him to receive an unfriendly welcome to the head coaching fraternity by Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. Over the past few months, Judge has had to do a lot of things for the first time. He and the Giants very likely would have benefitted from the chance to get to know each other better over a few preseason games. Tomlin, on the other hand, knows his team well ..." Unsurprisingly, Judge and co. did go through some growing pains this season. However, fate has them still playing a meaningful game and now he's had plenty of time to get to know his team. While they had to face some tough teams down the stretch, the Giants are less than a month removed from winning outright at Seattle. Thats arguably a more impressive feat than anything Dallas has accomplished. Speaking of Dallas, the Cowboys are 0-4 ATS the past four times that they were road favorites of three or less. All four losses came outright. Though I like the Giants to also win this one outright, in what could be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. The SEC didn't fare too well at the betting window, in yesterday's egames. Auburn lost to Northwestern while Georgia nearly lost outright against Cincy. Then, Alabama failed to cover against the Irish. That may have some scratching their heads about why the SEC team is getting so much respect here. However, I'm projecting a double-digit win and believe that the Aggies could easily be favored by more. While the Tar Heels were certainly impressive in beating up on Miami, they also lost against Virginia, Florida State and Notre Dame. Texas A&M has just one loss all season and that came at Alabama. Since then, the Aggies have won seven straight, starting with Florida, all against SEC opposition. Their last six wins have ALL come by double-digits. Despite facing an SEC schedule, the Aggies allowed just 21.1 ppg compared to the Tar Heels' 28.4 ppg against an ACC schedule, one which didn't include a game against Clemson. Of course, it also needs to be mentioned that UNC has a number of players who chose to opt out of this game. Mack Brown said this of the missing players: "That's 4,000 yards worth of offense and our leading tackler on defense and two captains. This is new for me because I've never had a guy not play in a ball game ... " Texas A&M rolls. 

I'm playing on DENVER. I successfully backed the Nuggets in their last game here, as they got on track with a big win over Houston. They'd follow it up with a loss in a b2b spot, on the road, the following night. Schedule and venue in their favor, I expect another win and cover to ring in the year. While the Nuggets had last night off, the Suns are off a hard-fought win at Utah. The only previous time that the Suns played b2b games this season, their opponent was in the same situation. That's not the case here. Not only will the Suns be playing b2b games, they'll also be playing three games in four nights and five in the past seven. Facing a motivated and rested Denver team, expect it to all catch up to the Suns tonight. Nuggets roll. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE. One can argue that the Buckeyes didn't deserve to be here, due to eligibilty reasons. However, there's no arguing the fact that they have the talent to be here. I like the way that the Buckeyes enter this one. The world against them - at least they can make a case for feeling that way - and off a non-cover, comeback win in the Big Ten championship game. All that sets them up well for this one; I like how they rallied to come back from a 10-6 halftime deficit to win 22-10. The comeback provides momentum and confidence, as does the ability to win a close game. The non-cover creates some additional line value, as this line could easily be less than a touchdown. QB Fields has had time for his thumb to recover and now he'll have one of his favorite receivers back, as Chris Olave missed the Northwestern game. Last year's game could have easily gone either way. The Buckeyes were up 16-0 but lost 29-23. Lawrence threw the game-winning TD with less than two minutes to go. Again, the Buckeyes were right there last year. They've been waiting and hoping for this rematch and I expect them to again give the Tigers all they can handle. Fields had this to say: "It's pretty self-explanatory that game hurt us a lot last year. So that has kind of been our whole motivation this offseason. Just getting the chance to play those guys again is a great opportunity ... " Ohio State's offensive lineman Wyatt Davis added: "It's everybody. I mean, we had a whole winter offseason program dedicated to this game. Clearly what we've seen and I'm sure all of you have seen this, we're going into this game not respected at all so that has a lot of motivations as well." Don't be surprised when this one comes down to the wire once again, the revenge-minded Buckeyes with an excellent shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on LIPSCOMB. Liberty is off a huge season and has dominated the Atlantic Sun Conference in recent years. The Flames lost a lot from last year though and I believe that they're ripe to get upset here. Note that the Bisons did beat Liberty here last season. Getting nine points, they won 77-71. While Liberty's team has arguably taken a step back, on paper, Lipscomb is arguably stronger than last year. Its also worth noting that four of the past five meetings were decided by seven or less. I like the fact that Liberty hasn't played since 12/22 as there may be some rust. I also like the Lipscomb has built up confidence with three straight wins.  Including last year's upset win over Liberty here, the Bistons are 34-18 ATS their past 50+ as underdogs. Expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon with AT LEAST another cover. 

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. These teams are at opposite ends of the conference. No West Coast Conference team can compete with Gonzaga, as the Bulldogs are in a class of their own this season. However, the Dons are capable of competing with any other team in the conference. Remember, this is a team which beat Virginia earlier. The same cannot be said for San Diego. The Toreros, who are likely destined to finish near the bottom of the conference. San Diego, hit by Covid-19 mitigation measures, didn't get to work together until late in the season. Now, the Toreros have still only had a chance to play four games (SF has played 10) so they still aren't really firing on all cylinders. They're 1-3 and their three losses came by an average of 22 points. Last time out, they lost by 32, at UC-Irvine. While they didn't cover, I like how the Dons eked out a close win against a Grand Canyon team which had been playing very well. The Dons won last season's meeting by 25 points. Knowing they've got Gonzaga on deck, they're going to want to build confidence. Expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, en route to an other lopsided win. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE. While I respect San Jose State, I don't believe it should be laying double-digits against an undervalued Ball State team. I don't think the Cardinals are being given nearly enough respect or enough credit for beating Buffalo. Keep in mind that the Bulls had been crushing every team they faced all season. That was a very good Buffalo team and Ball State won by double-digits. That victory was arguably more impressive than anything that the Spartans did. That's six straight wins. The Cards only loss was in their first game and that was by just seven points. San Jose State does deserve credit but also benefitted from a down year in the Mountain West. Keep in mind that the Spartans are still just 2-10 SU their last 12 against teams with a winning record. In what should be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE TECH. While the Golden Eagles are winless, I believe that they're favored for a reason and I expect them to earn their first victory here. The Golden Eagles, who have beaten the Redhawks three straight times here at Hooper Eblen Arena, are winless due to the schedule that they've played. Tennessee Tech has played seven of its nine games on the road. Underdogs in every game, until this one, the Golden Eagles have taken on the likes of Indiana, Xavier and Tennessee, to name just a few. Indeed, they're battle-tested and won't be intimidated by a Redhawk team who's toughest opponent was Indiana State. Over the past couple of seasons, SE. Missouri State was 0-2 ATS as a road underdog of three or fewer points. The Golden Eagles won by nine against the Redhawks here last season and I believe that they're an improved team this season. I can't say the same for the Redhawks. Tenn. Tech rolls. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Rockets are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Nuggets are already  0-2 on the season, both those losses here at home. They know that their next game is on the road and that they won't play another home game until "next year." That will provide them with a sense of urgency and I expect them to take it out on the Rockets. As you likely know, Harden wants out. That's made things difficult, to say the least. Of course, even when the Rockets were fully functional, they had trouble winning here. While the Rockets have beaten the Nuggets eight straight times at Houston, they've lost their last three games here at Denver, losing by an average of more than 10 points. The Nuggets were 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS when off a double-digit loss, the past couple of seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win of their own. 

I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. Nearly every site, analyst or person that I've looked at is predicting a Buffalo blowout. Yes, the Bills have been the better team. Yes, the Patriots are dealing with injuries. Yes, the Pats will also be home for the playoffs. Their reign is over. I believe thats exactly what will make them so dangerous tonight though. This is still their house and this is one final chance to "end the era" on a high note, reminding everyone that it wasn't just Brady that made this team so good, for so long. While they've struggled on the road, the Pats have remained tough at home. They've only played two home games since the start of November. Those games were against Arizona and Baltimore, both capable opponents, and the Pats beat both of them. They've only been beaten by six points once here all season. Even while struggling, the Pats have still only given up 63 points their past four games, an average of less than 16 ppg. The earlier meeting was decided by three points. If the Bills do manage to win here, I certainly don't expect it to be "easy." Grab the points. 

I'm playing on CSU. The Bulldogs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Fresno has almost an entirely new starting lineup and has yet to play a game against a quality team. The Bulldogs' two games have come against William Jessup and Fresno Pacific; neither game had a line. The Rams, a far more experienced team to begin with, have played twice as many games overall and they've actually taken on real opponents, like St. Mary's. The Rams have already beaten the Bulldogs by double-digits twice in 2020. They won 80-70 at Fresno in February and they hammered the Bulldogs 86-68 in a game here in January. Prior to the season, Fresno coach Justin Hutson noted: "...It's just a lot of new guys, so the theme is to get them to gel as a team." They haven't had a chance to do that yet. Look for the Rams to take advantage of their inexperience, improving to 3-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. 

I'm playing on GREEN BAY. Usually, the Packers are a "popular" team. However, the Titans are kind of the 'flavor of the week' these days, so that's allowed this line to come down lower than it normally would be. Indeed, with the Pack off b2b ATS losses and the Titans off b2b ATS wins, we're getting excellent value with the Rodgers and co. While the Pack may not have covered, they still won each of their last two games by seven or more points. In fact, 10 of their 11 wins have come by at least seven points and ALL 11 of them have come by a minimum of four points. (Three of Tennessee's four losses came by six or more and ALL of them came by at least a field goal.) While Henry is a load, the Packers run defense is improved from last season. I expect them to do a relatively good job at slowing down the Titans' big back. On the other hand, Rodgers should have a field day against a Titan pass defense that ranks among the worst in the league. The Pack, who are trying to lock down the #1 seed in the NFC, are 19-4 SU at home the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on PROVIDENCE. The last time that these teams faced each other was on 3/7/2020. The Friars hammered them by a score of 93-55. The Friars were up 55-25 by halftime. While this one is unlikely to get that ugly, I am absolutely expecting another double-digit win for the Friars. In this season, when teams didn't get to practice in the offseason the way they normally do, actually playing games is very important. In this case, Providence is "battle-tested" with eight games under its belt. I expect this season's experience to prove the difference. The Friars have taken on the likes of Indiana, Davidson, Alabama, TCU, Seton Hall and Butler. By comparison, Depaul has played just one game and that was against Western Illinois. Sure, the Blue Demons won 91-72. However, thats not saying much as the "Leathernecks" were 5-21 last season and didn't bring back a single starter this year. With Depaul just 6-12 ATS its past 18, after scoring 80 or more in its previous game, expect the Friars to pull away for a comfortable win and cover. 

I'm playing on WESTERN KENTUCKY in the Lending Tree Bowl. The Panthers got the better of the Hilltoppers when these teams met in a bowl game in 2017. Three years later, I expect the Hilltoppers to settle the score. While the Panthers have the edge on offense, the Hilltoppers have been much better on defense. I like the momentum that WKU brings into this game; the Hilltoppers have won three straight, winning by a bigger margin each time out. They've only got one loss by more than four points in the past two months and that came at BYU, which was undefeated at the time. The Panthers have been involved in five games decided by seven or fewer points. Likewise, the Hilltoppers have seen five of their games decided by seven or less. The Hilltoppers are 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. The Hilltoppers are happy to be here and they're coming in hungry. While I like the outright win, in what should be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While their chances of making the playoffs are indeed slim, the Vikings aren't mathematically elmiminated yet. (They need to win both their games and get some help.) I expect their very best effort on Christmas Day. The Vikings have an offense capable of staying with the Saints. They've scored at least 27 points in four of their past five games. The Saints only recent win by more than five points came against a Denver team which was missing all of its quarterbacks. The Saints are just 2-5 ATS the past seven times that they were favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. They're also only 5-11 ATS the past 16 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were off a division loss and 6-0 ATS the past six times that they were off b2b losses. Grab the points.

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. While its important not to over-react to one game, its also important not to ignore what just happened. In this case, the Warriors looked terrible in Tuesday's opener, at Brooklyn. Thompson is out. Green missed the opener and may well miss this one. If he does play, he's not likely to be 100%. Without Green in there to take some pressure off him, Wiggins really struggled in the opener. Curry can't do it alone. The Bucks are thinking nothing less than a championship this season. Still stinging from last season's playoff disappointment, this is their chance to remind the world how good that they can be. They should be improved, too, having added Jrue Holliday to their already stacked lineup. Bucks make a statement and win by double-digits. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA. This is a mismatch in terms of both talent and experience. The Bucaneers won 30 games last season. However, this year's team has an entirely new starting lineup, as well as a new coach. They're still going to be good, within their conference, but they're not yet ready to challenge the likes of Alabama. Not when the Tide are going to be motivated, as I expect them to be here. The Tide are 2-0 SU this season, when coming off a loss. Off a loss and playing their final game before Christmas, with conference play to follow after that, they're going to be anxious to bounce back with a big win. The Tide are better than their record suggests. In an angry mood, expect them to close out the non-conf. slate with a statement blowout.

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. This isn't just a regular game for the Tigers. They have a score to settle with this team and have had this game circled. The last time that they met, Tulsa beat them by a score of 80-40. Forward D.J. Jeffries noted: "They pretty much humiliated us last year. We're coming back tomorrow with redemption. We're trying to go out there and prove that we're the tougher team and better team, you know, go out there and hit them in the mouth first, because last year I felt like they hit us in the mouth first." Coach Penny Hardaway added: "A lot of players quit in that game and it was very disappointing. So we’re a totally different team now. We have the utmost respect for everybody. ... So now they know what to expect. And it's been an opportunity for us to get another home win, but also get back at Tulsa for how they beat up on us last year." I say its payback time. Memphis rolls. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Billikens have a veteran team this year and they've been playing well. However, I expect a highly motivated Minnesota team to hand them their first loss. A closer look at the Billikens' games show that none have come on the road and that none have been against real top quality opponents. They did eke out a win against LSU while beating NC. State. So, those wins were fairly impressive. Again, however, they weren't on the road. The rest of the Billiken's wins all came against weak competition, as they were favored by double-digits in every other game. The Gophers have also taken care of business when playing at home. Their only loss came last time out, at Illinois. The Illini are one of the top teams in the country though, so there's no shame in losing on the road to them. The fact that the Gophers got hammered will have them working extra hard to bounce right back. Indeed, Pitino will use that blowout loss as motivation and have his team ready to go. Look for a huge effort from the Gophers, as they improve to 16-9 ATS the past 25 times that they were off a conference loss. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Bearcats have had a great season and I expect them to keep on rolling Saturday. With the exception of a 3-point win against UCF, Cincy beat every other opponent by a minimum of 14 points. It should be noted that that the game against UCF was on the road. This game, however, will be played at Nippert Stadium. The last three teams (ECU, Houston and Memphis) that have visited here have lost by scores of 55-17, 38-10 and 49-10. Going back further finds the Bearcats at 18-0 SU and 12-6 ATS their last 18 at home. While Tulsa allows 19.9 ppg, Cincy allows just 15 ppg. On the other side of the ball, the Bearcats' advantage is even bigger. Tulsa averages 27.7 ppg. Cincinnati averages 40.9. While I expect Tulsa to have trouble scoring, no team has kept Cincy to less than 36 points for more than two months. Bearcats roll. 

I'm playing on ST. MARY'S. The Gaels have played a lot more games than the Rams and I expect that to work to their advantage this evening. Since dropping its opener against Memphis, St. Mary's has won seven straight games. The Rams, on the other hand, have only played two games. Both were against weak competition and neither were on the road. The Rams are just 17-30-1 ATS over the years as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. The Gaels, during the same span, were 24-15 ATS as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. The Gaels are 20-11 SU/ATS their last 31 against MWC opponents, 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS their last seven. The Gaels have won five straight at home, averaging more than 80 ppg while giving up just 63. Expect homecourt to prove significant as the Gaels win their eighth straight overall while covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Bills are having a great season and they're off an impressive win over the Steelers, on Sunday night. Everyone saw that nationally televised game. That's led to many jumping on the Buffalo bandwagon which, in turn, has created excellent value with the Broncos. The big win over Buffalo also may well have the Bills patting themselves on the back a bit. Now, they play a road game in altitude, on a short week. Its also important to note that Bills have a game against New England on deck. Last week, when playing against the Saints in their loss against the Eagles, I noted that the Saints had a huge game against the Chiefs on deck. For them, there was no bigger possible game to look ahead to then a date with the defending world champs. For Buffalo, however, a date with the 11-time defending AFC East champs is arguably an even bigger game to look ahead to. Even though the Patriot reign on top of the division will come to an end, a game against them is still a big deal for Buffalo. Yes, the Bills can clinch the AFC East with a win (or Miami loss) this week. However, there's still plenty of time for that, so there shouldn't be any absolute urgency. As for the Broncos, they're off one of their best games of the season, a 32-27 win at Carolina. Before that, they lost by only six, at KC. The last time that Lock started a home game, the Broncos beat Miami. Speaking of Lock, he was 21 of 27 last week, throwing for four TDs and 0 INTs. His 149.5 passer rating was third best (only Elway and Manning were better) in franchise history. With a chance to play a home game in front of a National audience and not wanting the Bills to clinch a playoff berth in their building, I say that Lock and the Broncos rise to the occasion and give their guests all that they can handle. 

I'm playing on RICHMOND. Big game between two good teams. It was a recent addition to the schedule and the teams will meet at Indianapolis. Richmond has positive momentum in its corner, while Loyola-Chicago is off its first loss. I expect that to work in favor of the Spiders. I also like the fact that the Spiders have played a couple more games overall than have the Ramblers. With teams not being able to do as much offseason work together as normal, those extra games help more than they hurt. With their loss against the Badgers, ther Ramblers are just 4-10 ATS as underdogs the past 2+ seasons. I really liked how the Spiders responded to their first loss of the season, as they were flawless in the first half against Vanderbilt. Even better was the fact that they allowed the Commodores to come back and cover in the second half, as it kept today's line more reasonable than it easily could have been. I say the Spiders keep rolling, covering the small nubmer along the way. 

I'm playing on ASU. The Miners are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. While they may have played Arizona tough, the Sun Devils are a different beast. Having survived, while receiving a wake-up-call, at Grand Canyon, I expect Arizona State, 6-2 ATS its last eight against CUSA teams, to be all business in this one. The Miners will have an opportunity for a win before Christmas. However, tonight, they're at the end of a road trip and thinking about what might have been at Arizona and also about getting home. Keep in mind that UTEP hasn't won a road game against a team with a winning record, since the 2016/17 season. Once Remy Martin and the Sun Devils get up, as I fully expect them to do, its going to be tough for the Miners to fight back. Look for the Sun Devils to build some positive momentum from their close call at Grand Canyon, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way and delivering a one-sided blowout. 

I'm playing on AUBURN. I'm expecting this one to get ugly. All five of Auburn's opponents have been better than this one. The Tigers have taken on the likes of Gonzaga and Memphis. Even their lesser opponents (UCF, St. Joseph's etc) were considerably better than Texas Southern. To their credit, the Tigers (Texas Southern) have also taken on some fairly tough teams. They've been mostly competitive, too. That said, they're going to be getting a little road weary for this one. This is their sixth game and its the sixth different arena that they will have played in. That stretch started way out on the West Coast, too. Bruce Pearl will make sure his team doesn't take their opponent for granted. He knows that games will soon get a lot harder and that his team will benefit from a big win in this one. Auburn is off its most impressive win of the season and will now look to build on it with a blowout. Not only is Auburn 30-0 SU its last 30 non-conf game but the Tigers are also 23-0 all-time against teams from the Southwestern Athletic Conference. Texas Southern is just 1-4 ATS its last five as a road underdog in the 12.5 to 15 point range. I see Auburn pulling away and winning by 20+. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Browns have definitely gotten better since the Ravens hammered them earlier in the season. However, I don't feel that they're improved enough to take the next step and to beat the Ravens. When healthy, Baltimore, has handled teams not named KC or Pittsburgh. I mention that as the Ravens are now mostly healthy after having been hit hard by Covid-restrictions. Speaking of "missing players," you won't hear much about it, but the Browns will be without their top cornerback (Ward) for this one.  I believe that his absence hurts them. The Ravens were 7-1 in the final four weeks of the reg. season the past two seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats Monday night, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Saints have been on quite the run. I believe that it comes to an end Sunday though. The Eagles are a dangerous and desperate team. Amazingly, they're still alive. But this is absolutely must win time. The Rams were the only team to beat the Eagles by more than six points, at Philadelphia, all season. And that was way back in September. This, despite the Eagles hosting the likes of Seattle and Baltimore. The Saints are playing their third straight on the road, something you don't see too often. They've also got a showdown with the defending Super Bowl champs on deck. So, if there's ever a time to look ahead to a game, this is it. The Eagles have been great in the final four weeks of the regular season two years in a row, winning seven of those eight games. Expect them to give their potentially road-weary guests all that they can handle with a great shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on V-TECH. Virginia is rolling. Virginia Tech is reeling. No brainer on the visitors, right? Not in my opinion. A closer look at the Hokies' 4-game skid shows that the first was an unlikely 3-point loss against Liberty. That was followed by a 1-point loss against Miami. Each of those games absolutely could have gone either way. Getting stuck on the wrong side of both was tough to take though and the Hokies delivered a dud at Pittsburgh. Not a great effort but understandable, all the same. That was followed by a loss against Clemson. So, there's no shame in that. In other words, I'm not ready to write the Hokies off due their current slide. Coach Fuente summed it up by saying: " ... we've lost two heartbreakers then didn't play very well on the road and came home against the No. 3 team in the country and right in the middle of the game had some of the weirdest events I've ever seen occur. There's a little bit of context .... The bottom line is that I love what we are teaching, what they are retaining and where we are going." Beating their bitter instate rival won't get them a winning record but it will sure go a long way in getting rid of the bad taste in their mouths. With a bowl game lookling unlikely, this game is even more important. The Cavs haven't played a road game since way back on 10/24, when they lost by five, at Miami. In fact, a closer look shows that Virginia is 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by a combined score of 100-60. Speaking of road woes, the Cavs haven't won here since 1998. I expect a highly motivated V-Tech team to deliver its very best effort, continuing its homefield dominance in this series while covering the small number along the way.  

I'm playing on LIPSCOMB. In case you weren't aware, these schools don't like each other and this is a major rivalry. With the two private schools separated by only a couple of miles, this series is known as "The Battle of the Boulevard." For schools of its size, the rivalry is considered the fiercest around. The two schools have met 140 times over the past 64 years. While they may not be well known, the Bisons are well-coached and hungry. They've quietly gone 34-17-1 ATS their last 55 as underdogs. Of course, the Bruins know how dangerous the Bisons are. Lipscomb beat Belmont outright in both 2017 meetings. Since then, they've had four meetings and ALL FOUR were decided by six or fewer points. In the most recent meeting, last December at Belmont, the Bears were laying 13 points but won by only five. Now, the Bruins are on the road against what I believe is an improved Lipscomb team from last year. Note that this is Belmont's first true road game of the season. Also, note that the Bruins were 0-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. While the Bruins have been playing weak teams, the Bisons have been getting battle-tested against the likes of Arkansas and Cincinnati. They finally played a home game last time out and defeated S.E. Missouri State by six. I like their chances of winning this one outright but in a game which could well come down to the wire, like recent games in this rivalry have been doing, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on WYOMING. The Cowboys are off a momentum-building comeback win at Oregon State and come in full of confidence. Facing a very young Denver team, which will struggle this season, offers an opportunity for them to build momentum with a blowout win. I expect them to make the most of it. This is a rivalary that goes back a lot of years and the Cowboys have historically dominated the Pioneers here. The fact that Denver actually scored the upset last time here (2018) won't be forgotten and will help to ensure the Cowboys keep their foot on the gas the entire way. The Pioneers lost by 20 against UC Riverside last time out, which doesnt bode well for them here. Now, they hit to the road where they're 1-28 SU their last 29. Expect a one-sided blowout. 

I'm playing on RUTGERS. These are both good teams and both brought back a lot of starters from last year. The problem for Syracuse is that its missing a couple of theirs. Buddy Boeheim and Bourama Sidibe, each important pieces, are both out. Boeheim got a positive Covid test while Sidibe is recovering from a knee injury. Of course, the one starter that the Orange did lose from last year's team was a big one and will be tough to replace. Elijah Hughes led the entire ACC in scoring last season. Syracuse 8-11 ATS its last 19 against teams which score 77 or more. During the same span, the Knights are 12-5 ATS against opponents that score 77 or more and 9-4 ATS against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. I say Rutgers is catching 'Cuse at the right time. Look for the Knights to move to 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to six range. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. You can't really call this one an instate "rivalry," as the Wildcats crush this team every time that they meet. The last five meetings have had scores of 91-52, 101-67, 92-37, 77-44 and 93-50. Every win by more than 30. This season's Wildcats are young and they're currently missing a few key players. However, unlike their guests, they're talented. Also, unlike their guests, they've got a couple of games under their belts. While the Widcats have had a few games cancelled, they've at least gotten to play. The Lumberjacks have had each of their games cancelled. I like how the Wildcats were tested last time out and prevailed, a 70-67 win over Eastern Washington. Thats the type of win that a young team can build positive momentum from. The Cats still have enough to lay a beating on their overmatched guests. I expect them to pull away for another 30+ point win. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. I know some of you are probably thinking, "The Jets?" Yes, I know, we're talking about the Jets. I know that picking a winless team for my "GOY" won't make me popular. I'm not worried about that though. Only about cashing a ticket and I love how this one sets up for the home team. The Jets defense is playing hard. The offense, admittedly, has struggled. However, the pieces are back and I believe that this will be a defense that they will have success against. Keep in mind that the Raiders are off a 43-6 loss.. They've allowed 78 points the past two games. Gruden knows the Jets will be tough. He had this to say Monday, after the Sunday beating by the Falcons: "...We're still really young. We are missing some key players. I'm not going to worry about anything down the road except the Jets. And if you watched the Jets play yesterday, they're a handful. They're going to be hard to move the ball on. Gregg Williams and this defense give people problems, we've got to take better care of the ball, we've got to play better collectively on defense and we've got to make some timely plays in the kicking game. This will be a fistfight no doubt about it. I've got a lot of respect for the way the Jets are competing ..." The Jets defense was especially stingy in the second half last week, forcing two turnovers and three punts. Darnold, now with all his receivers, has a game under his belt. He's highly motivated for a better performance and I believe that the team is highly motivated for that first victory. I think they're catching the Raiders at the right time and I expect them to take this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at getting that elusive first win. 

I'm playing on APP STATE. This is a big game between two good teams. While the Cajuns have the higher ranking, I believe that the Mountaineers are favored for good reason. After losing to Coastal Carolina, the Mountaineers didn't hang their heads. They went out and hammered Troy. Now, they get a chance to redeem themselves by beating a ranked team. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. The Mountaineers have dominated this series in recent seasons. I believe that the Mountaineers have the better defense and that will ultimately lead to them contininuing their series dominance. Coastal Carolina was the only team to score more than 21 points against them. Each of the past five, besides Coastal Carolina, has scored 17 or less. While the Cajuns may get more than that, they won't get enough. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on TULSA. The home team has won by exactly 14 points each of the past two seasons, with nearly identical scores. Playing at home, the Mavericks took last year's game, 73-59. However, in the most recent game here at Tulsa, the Golden Hurricane won by a score of 72-58. At home, I expect another double-digit win for Tulsa this evening. To their credit, the Mavericks have fought pretty hard, eking out a pair of covers in their two true road games. They still lost both though, most recently falling by 12 on Wednesday. They've got some winnable games coming up after this one, but I expect them to be in over their heads here. As of this writing, the O/U line is 135, at most shops. Thats noteworthy as Tulsa has long thrived when playing at home, with games projected to play at this tempo. The Hurricane are 39-16 SU and 32-22-1 ATS over the years, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range, 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the Mavericks were just 2-4 ATS (1-5 SU) when playing a road game with a total in the same range. Lay the points. 

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. I won with the Aggies in their last game, a 41-27 win over New Mexico. That was a huge win for them, as it was their first of the season. Now, with that monkey off their back, I expect the Aggies to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. With last week's win, Utah State is now 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS its past 15 home games. During that span, Air Force is just 5-8 SU on the road. In this season's lone road game, the Falcons managed only six points, a 17-6 loss at SJ State. While the Falcons did beat up on New Mexico last time out, that was awhile ago now; they haven't been playing much, due to covid cancellations. I expect that to work against them here, as the suddenly confident Aggies are coming "ready to play." Grab the points. 

I'm playing on LA TECH. These schools were disappointed to have their football game cancelled a few weeks ago. However, they'll get a chance to settle things on the hardwood and I really like how things set up for the Bulldogs. This is a quality LA Tech team, one which now has a couple of games under its belt. Both resulted in SU wins but narrow ATS losses. (Last time out, LA Tech won by 14, laying 16.5.) Now the Bulldogs face a run of instate opponents. After Louisiana-Monroe, they'll face Louisiana State (LSU) SE Louisiana and Louisiana-Lafayette. Needless to say, LSU will be a tougher challenge. So, the Bulldogs will look to build momentum with a blowout win. Note that with that LSU game not until Sunday, there's no reason to rest stars. ULM, with a revamped roster, was going to be outmatched regardless but what makes matters worse is that the Warhawks have yet to even play a game. All those new faces are going to take time to come together and it won't be happening tonight. Look for the Bulldogs to keep the pedal to the metal, pulling away for a decisive win and improving to 18-7 ATS the past 25 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN. I successfully played against the Wolverines in their last game. However, I like how they were tested and that they won the game in OT. I believe that will serve as a wake up call while also providing positive momentum. Ball State, on the other hand, has had some time off since a deflating 1-point loss in their first game. Not ideal. (Ball State just 1-4 ATS its past five, with five or six day's rest in between games.) This is a team which needs to practice and to play. Its also far from ideal that the Cardinals have been without Coleman and Jones, a pair of important players. It doesn't appear that either will be available but even if one or both were, they wouldn't be at 100%. Either way, Michigan has too much talent and size and will ultimately pull away for a decisive win. Lay the points and look for the Wolverines to move to 11-7-2 ATS (19-1 SU) their last 20, as home faovrites in the 12.5 to 15 range. 

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. The Hilltoppers are indeed a very capable team, one which has performed well in the underdog role in recent seasons. However, the Cardinals handled them last year, a 71-54. While they aren't at the level that last year's team was, I believe that the Cardinals' superior defense will again be the difference. Note that WKU entered last year's game shooting 41.1% from beyond the arc but went just 1-for-17 against the stifling Cardinal defense. This year, through three games, Louisville is allowing 59.3 ppg while WKU is allowing 75.3. With an O/U line in the low 140s, note that the Hilltoppers are 0-3 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. During that span, the Cards are 6-1 SU at home, with a line in the same range. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. Admittedly, the Golden Grizzlies really stunk in their three games at the Xavier Invitational. Those poor performances have helped provide us with a very generous pointspread. I believe that the Grizzlies are better than they showed and I believe that the big line is offering excellent value. Note that Michigan is just 1-3 ATS its past four, as a home favorite in the -24.5 to -30 range. The Grizzlies did improve each time out in the tournament, covering in the final game. Each time out, they scored more points and allowed less, than they did in their previous game. Look for them to provide a tougher test than many will be expecting, improving to 9-3 ATS the past 12 times that they scored 60 or fewer points in their previous game.

I'm playing on DENVER. The Broncos are obviously in a tough spot with their QB situation. That said, they're off a momentum-building win, their defense and running game getting it done. The Denver secondary is very good and they were getting plenty of pressure on the QB last week. They also held the Dolphins to just 56 yards on the ground. They won't have to contend with Brees and I believe that they could easily catch the Saints looking past them. New Orleans is just 2-4 ATS the past six times it was favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. Grab the points and expect the Broncos to come ready to play. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. With Bridgewater expected to play against his former team, this line came down from its opener. I believe thats providing plenty of value with what I believe to be the superior team. Note that the Vikings are a profitable 30-17-1 ATS (34-14 SU) over the years, as a home favorite of three or less. I believe this line move is an over-reaction to last week's results. Yes, the Panthers looked good. However, their win came against the Lions. Before that, they'd lost four straight. Likewise, before last week's loss, the Vikings had won three straight. The Vikings convert very well when they get into the red zone. They also average more yards per play than any team in the league. Additionally, they've arguably got more to play for. Lay the small number and expect the Panthers to be unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on ODU. The Monarchs bring back a lot from last year and are poised for a big bounce back season. The same cannot be said for the Tribe. William & Mary lost a lot from last season, promptiing coach to Fischer to comment: "Our team is going to look completely different from what it did last year ... " He'd go on to describe having so many new faces as "daunting." Speaking of last season, the Monarchs haven't forgotten that they were thumped at William & Mary, losing by 17 on the road. Note that ODU won by 18, at home, when the teams met the previous season. This is a chance at some payback and a chance to show how far this team has come. The Monarchs have had this one circled and I expect them to deliver a blowout. 

I'm playing on OREGON. They no longer officially call this game the "Civil War." That title was dropped several months ago. There's still no love lost between the two teams though and there's still a big class difference between them. Oregon is better on both sides of the ball. I like that the Ducks were tested by UCLA last week and how they responded and came through with a victory. Off that "close call," I believe they'll follow it up with a blowout win. The Ducks, who already covered at Washington State, are 6-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, as road favorites. Their last visit here, almost exactly two years ago, saw Oregon, which was laying 18 points, win by 40, a 55-15 destruction. Including that result, the Beavers are just 4-9-1 ATS their last 14 home games, 0-3 ATS when listed as home underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. Oregon coach Mario Cristobal said this of last week's win: "We were a little bit out of sync, and like we told those guys, ‘Look, when you win, you don’t apologize for winning, you don’t get down for winning, you just recognize where you got to get better.' And we weren’t at our very best, and we know that we have to improve certain things." Expect the Ducks to "get better" and for them to deliver their biggest blowout of the season, thus far. 

I'm playing on MOREHEAD STATE. While the Spiders are obviously the stronger team, I really like how this one sets up for the Eagles. Most know that Richmond brought back all its starters. However, it should be noted that one of them, Nick Sherod, was lost to injury. That's a big blow. This will be the Spiders first game, as their game against Detroit was cancelled. The Eagles, on the other hand, have already taken on Kentucky. So, they've had a chance to work off some of the offseason rust. Speaking of Kentucky, the Spiders have a big showdown against the Wildcats up next. If they do get up big in this one, they could easily take their foot off the gas a bit and give their starters a little extra rest for that one. Also, note that this game is being played in the state of Kentucky; Lexington is only an hour or so away from Morhead State's campus. Last year, Richmond also had a big game (Vanderbilt) on deck for its second game and it ended up getting taken to OT (100-98 win) in its first game, despite being listed as a double-digit favorite. Look for this one to also prove closer than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA. This is a major mismatch and the Tide could easily win by 30+. Alabama, in year two of the "Ball and Oats" era, is poised to have a big year and is expecting to make a return to the NCAA tournament. The Tide, who bring back the SEC's two top returning scorers from last year, will be looking to get things started with a statement win. In addition to being more talented than the Gamecocks, the Tide are far more experienced. The Gamecocks are just 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were road underdogs of 12.5 or more points. They won't be able to keep up and are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. Both these teams came through for me in their last game. I won with the Rams when they beat the Seahawks and I won with the Bucs when they beat Carolina. So, I'm aware that both looked very good. Playing at home, I expect the Bucs to be the team which keeps on rolling this week. While I really respect the Rams, I believe that they're at the wrong place, at the wrong time. Yes, Tampa bounced back with a big win last week. However, that wasn't on "primetime." The Bucs still have a bad taste in their mouths after getting smacked around by the Saints on Sunday night football. I did successfully play against Tampa in Brady's MNF debut as a Buc. That was against the Giants though and it was a case of the situation favoring NY and the Bucs laying too many points. Then, there was the Week 5 game where Brady forgot what down it was at the end of the game. My point is, that the Bucs haven't exactly shined in primetime and that I expect that to be a motivating factor for them in this one. This is a chance to make people forget, a convincing win tonight and everything is forgotten. Of course, they're also chasing New Orleans in the division and can't afford to fall further behind. The Bucs are 4-1-1 ATS (5-1 SU) their last six, as favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 range. I really liked the way that they bounced last week and I expect them to follow it up with a "statement win" tonight. 

I'm playing on DENVER. Off a few big wins and with a couple of winnable games (Jets, Bengals) on deck, I believe that this will prove to be a letdown spot for the Dolphins. Yes, they've been winning but the stats show that they've been somewhat fortunate to be doing so. I don't think they're ready to go on the road and defeat what figures to be a desperate Denver team. Not only that, the Dolphins are being asked to lay points. Its possible that Drew Lock's ribs will force him to the bench. That's not necessarily a bad thing though, as the offense could use a spark. You may recall Rypien leading the Broncos to a win on Thursday night football earlier. A look at the yards for/against for both teams shows the gap isn't nearly what the records suggest. Not only does Denver average more passing yards than Miami, the Broncos also average more rushing yards. Additionally, the Broncos allow fewer total yards on defense. I'll grab the points but I'm expecting the outright win. 

I'm playing on UCF. The Bearcats are having a great season and won't be easy to beat. However, I believe that the Knights are peaking at the right time and feel that they have the offense to do so. Indeed, UCF leads the nation with 619 yards and 44 points per game. The UCF offensive line has been playing great and will be the first team this season capable of handling the physicality of Cincy's defensive front. UCF took a bit to get going, understandable with all the pandemic stuff going on. The Knights are firing on all cylinders now though. UCF tackle Ed Collins noted: "The bye week after the Tulsa loss, we came together as a unit pretty good ..." Last year's game at Cincy was decided by just three points. The Knights won the previous three meetings, all by double-digits. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. While I've played against the Seahawks in each of their last two games, I like them to bounce back here. For the first time in awhile, the Hawks aren't coming off a flight through different time zones. I've pointed out that they've been going back and forth from from coast to coast for awhile now. While it may be a short week, they're finally staying in the Pacific time zone for consecutive games. Speaking of the short week, without much time in between games, I feel that homefield will provide Seattle with a big edge. Note that Arizona has played three straight at home and before that it played road games against the Jets and Cowboys, a pair of teams who are a combined 2-16. Their previous road game was at Carolina and the Cards lost by double-digits. Obviously, this is a much tougher venue. The Hawks are 6-1 SU and 4-1-2 ATS their past seven, when off a division loss. During that span, they were also 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS when off b2b SU losses. Wilson and co. haven't forgotten the Cards' comeback against them last month. Tonight, they get some payback, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Talk about no respect. The Bears have the better record. They're playing at home. They've had their way with the Vikes. Cousins never wins on MNF. Yet, the Vikes are favored? Some will suspect a "trap" and think the Vikes are the way to go. There's no trap though. Its just a matter of the books needing to balance the action and they know that the betting public is really down on Chicago. I've had success both playing on and playing against the Bears. In this case, that public sentiment has provided us with excellent value and I believe they're absolutely in a "play on" spot. Sure, Cousins wants to finally win a Monday night game. However, the Bears want the game every bit as much and they typically do a great job in shutting down Cousins. The Bears have also done a great job at slowing down Cook. Indeed, Chicago is 4-0 its past four against the Vikings, 3-0 since Cousins took over. The Vikes have managed a mere 29 points in those three games combined, Cook averaging only 29 ypg. Cousins will eventually get his MNF win. Just not this week. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on DENVER for the first half. The Broncos have gotten off to some slow starts and that's led to them having to play from behind. (In three straight weeks, they've been behind by double-digits by halftime.) They're determined to avoid that happening again. QB Lock commented: ''There's a lot of football left and we just have to hit our stride earlier in games.'' The Broncos secondary figures to get a boost as starting corners Bouye and Callahan are expected back. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS the past four times that they were off two or more consecutive wins, 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were off a divisional win. Expect them to have their hands full right from the get go and don't be surprised when the Broncos start fast and take a lead into the lockerroom. 

I'm playing on SDSU. This is already Hawaii's third road game in the past four weeks. They got crushed (at Wyoming) last time away from the island and this figures to be an even tougher venue. I expect the travel to catch up with them. Off last week's loss, the Aztecs are going to be in an angry mood. Last week's loss notwithstanding, the Aztecs have a very stingy defense. Expect Hawaii, which managed only seven points last time on the road, to have trouble finding the end zone. The Aztecs have additional motivation in this one as Hawaii has actually beaten them in b2b seasons, including a 31-30 upset, as double-digit underdogs, last time here. Its payback time today, the Aztecs keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Coach P.J. Fleck has turned the Gophers around, since his arrival in 2017. However, he has yet to beat Iowa. Even last year's team, which went 11-2, lost to the Hawkeyes. Needless to say, Fleck and the Gophers are extremely motivated to finally get a win in this series. They've got the offense to do it and they're playing at home. Last year's game was at Iowa and was decided by just four points. Yes, the Hawkeyes looked really good in beating up on Michigan State. However, they also lost by four points (at Purdue) in their lone road game. Additionally, Northwestern beat them by a point. Minnesota, young but talented, is getting better each time out. The Gophers are off a big win of their own and have scored more than 40 in b2b games. I expect Fleck to have them ready to play and look for them to give their guests all that they can handle, taking the game down to the wire and earning AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE. The Cardinals lost a tough one, at Miami Ohio, in their opener. While they would have liked to have it, they can afford that loss. They can't afford to lose this one though. That Cardinals improved last year and narrowly missed a bowl game. They lost each of their final three games by four or less to finish at 5-7. Thats a bad taste that they're still trying to get rid of. This is the perfect opportunity to do just that. The Eagles earned a somewhat fortunate cover (SU loss) in their opener. However, they're one of the weaker teams in the conference and now they're playing their second straight on the road. Ball State believes it can take the next step this season. If thats to be the case, the Cardinals need to take care of business on Wednesday. The Cardinals can and wil score a lot of points. Ultimately, I don't expect the Eagles to be able to keep up. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Dolphins are off an "impressive" win over the Rams, the "Tagovailo era" starting on the right foot. However, that was at home and they were catching LA having gone back and forth across the country and playing its third road game in four weeks. Also, while earning a victory was indeed impressive, a look at the stats shows that the Miami offense actually managed only 145 total yards. That was the fewest number of yards, by a team which won by double-digits, since way back in 2006. On the other side, the Dolphins gave up 471 yards. No, thats not a misprint. The Dolphins were outgained by a 471 to 145 margin. Needless to say, thats not a recipe for success. Off three straight wins, most recently a big comeback win against Seattle, Arizona is playing great. The Cards know they can't afford to take their foot off the gast though. Not in the ultra competitive NFC West. Prior to the narrow win over the previously undefeated Seahawks, Arizona had won its previous two games by a combined score of 68-20. The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS (0-7 SU) the past seven times that they were road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. Lay the small number and expect the superior team to pull away for a double-digit win.

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Razorbacks have arguably overachieved. However, they're still one of the weaker teams in the conference. I feel that the Vols have an edge in talent. I also really like the fact that they had last week off. They'd had a tough stretch of games, so the bye absolutely came at the right time. Its given them a chance to regroup and to focus on taking care of business in this winnable game. While the Vols are slight favorites, as of this writing, its a small enough line that a SU win should also equal an ATS win. Thats noteworthy as Tennessee is 52-11 SU as a road favorite over the years. This season, the only time that they were favored on the road, the Vols took care of business by winning (and covering) at South Carolina. While Pittman is in his first season with Arkansas, this is year 3 of the "Pruitt era" in Tennessee. If the Vols want to get to .500, this is a game they absolutely need to win. The Vols are 4-1 SU the last five under Pruitt, after losing their previous two games. (The loss came at Alabama.) Desperate for a victory, expect them to bounce back. 

I'm playing on NYG. I like how this one sets up for the Giants. While they came up short, the Giants played well (and covered) against the Eagles. They easily could have won that game. Now, they play with extra rest - another Nationally televised game with a chance to show the world that they're not as bad as their record suggests. Also, remember, with the NFC East having such a down year, the Giants are still very much alive in the race for the division. That said, they really need this one. The Bucs, on the other hand, are off a big game at Vegas. Before that, Brady had the 1-on-1 showdown vs. Rodgers and the Packers. Next up, he's got a date with Brees and the Saints. That said, it may be natural for the Bucs to have a slight letdown and/or already be looking past the lowly Giants. The Giants have now seen three straight games decided by three or fewer points and each of their past four games has been decided by single digits. While I respect the Bucs, I believe they're getting a bit over-valued and I'm grabbing the points with what I expect to be a highly motivated home underdog. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. Despite still dealing with major injuries, the 49'ers have managed to win big, each of the past two weeks. However, this week, they're at the wrong place, at the wrong time. After blowing last week's game at Arizona, Wilson and the Seahawks are going to be in an angry mood. Note that Seattle is 5-1 SU And 3-1-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a division loss. The 49ers, 4-9-1 ATS their past 14 divisional games, played on the East Coast last week and are now playing the second of b2b road games. With an O/U line in the 50s, note that SF is 3-6 ATS its last nine, when the O/U line was 49.5 or greater. During that span, Seattle was 7-2 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. While both teams are very well-coached, Wilson has been playing at a different level this season. Off a loss, he'll bounce back and make the difference. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Cowboys are favored because they are at home and because have the higher ranking. However, I don't believe that they're the better team. Indeed, the Cowboys haven't faced a team with the talent that Texas has. If the Longhorns want any hope of keeping open a chance at the Big 12 title, they absolutely need to win this game. The Longhorns, though loaded with talent, had to learn new systems this year. They've had a chance to do so now though and I really liked the way that they put the early struggles behind them and took care of business against Baylor. 

Coach Herman had this to say after the Baylor win: "... I'm really proud of our guys for accomplishing a lot of the things that we had set out to accomplish. Heading into the bye week and to go out there and execute them in a game was important for us and our growth and in our development ... and really happy and proud that we got a opportunity to win at home and thank our fans, both here in the stadium and all across the world. And, you know, stayed relatively healthy....we made a lot of strides in that bye week leading up to Baylor. And, you know, I expect to to continue on our trajectory north of improvement and development and hopefully give Oklahoma State our best shot. And if we give them our best shot and we don't beat ourselves much like we did not beat ourselves on Saturday against Baylor, then we'll have a chance to get a big time win..."

While the Cowboys eked out a 3-point win last week, they're just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times that they were favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 point range. Speaking of close games, Texas won by six when these teams met last season after the Cowboys and the previous two meetings had both been decided by a field goal. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Panthers won when these teams played earlier. In what figures to be a close game, I like getting points with revenge-minded Atlanta in Thursday's rematch. While the Falcons may not be winning, they're sure not quitting. They lost their last game by a single point, after beating Minnesota by a 40-23 score the previous week. Five of their six losses came by a TD or less, three of those came by just six combined points. Likewise, Carolina has also been playing close games. The Panthers lost by three last week. That marked their third straight game decided by seven or fewer points. Five of their seven games overall have been decided by a TD or less. While all the talk will be about whether or not McCaffrey will come back, Carolina's problems are on the other side of the ball. The Panthers' defense was young and thin to begin with and has now suffered several key injuries. I absolutely expect the Atlanta offense to take advantage. The Falcons won 29-3 here last season and 24-10 the season before that. I'll take the points but I expect another outright win for the visitors. 

I'm playing on LA. I successfully played against the Rams last week. However, that wasn't due to lack of respect for the Rams. I just really expected to see a desperate SF team and we did. The Rams are at home now and they didn't have to travel far to get here. Off a loss, they're going to be angry. The Bears, on the other hand, are playing their second straight on the road. Off b2b wins, they may be slightly complacent. Regardless, this is not an easy place to play. The Rams have won both their games here this season and are 15-4 (SU) their last 19 here. Eight of their last nine victories here have come by a minimum of seven points. Having just been embarrassed on National TV, this is an immediate opportunity for them to make amends and show the world that they're better than that. I believe that they are. The Rams are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS their last five, as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Expect them to make a statement, in improving on those numbers on Monday night. 

I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. I backed the 49'ers in their win last week, vs. LA. They played an inspired game and knocked off a strong Rams team. Still, lets not forget that their previous game resulted in a 43-17 loss against Miami. While the 49'ers have some key pieces back, this is still a team which is decimated by injuries. Traveling across the country to take on a hostile Patriots team, those injuries will catch up with them. The Pats weren't able to practice properly due to Covid-related issues and that was clearly one of the factors that led to their loss against Denver. Their previous game had resulted in a loss to KC. So, off b2b losses, don't expect them to show their banged-up guests any sympathy. Note that New England is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, off b2b losses. Even with this season's setbacks, the Pats are also still 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS their last 10 October games. This is typically been their time of year and they aren't about to lose three in a row. Not with their former QB (Brady) coming off such a huge game and not with another former QB (Jimmy G) coming to town. Indeed, Belichick is going to be extremely motivated to win this one and he'll make sure that his team feels the same way. While I respect the 49ers, they're at the wrong place, at the wrong time. 

I'm playing on NORTHWESTERN. Maryland has a recent history of winning its season opener. That changes in a big way on Saturday. Indeed, there's a significant difference in experience between these teams. Northwestern brought most of its team back. Maryland did not. As if things weren't bad enough for the Terps, QB Josh Jackson opted out, along with a handful of others. Jackson was one of six players who chose not to play due to pandemic-related issues. Not good for a team which was already lacking depth and experience. The Wildcats are stingy defensively and their veteran defensive unit is going to be tough to score on. Last year, this unit ranked 25th in the country in total defense. On the other side of the ball, new coordinator Mike Bajakian will have the offense playing with more pace and we should see an improvement on that side of the ball. These teams last met in 2017. The Wildcats won by 16. Expect another double-digit victory for the more experienced Wilcats Saturday. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO for the first half. Both these teams started the season with perfect 4-0 records. Both stumbled in Week 5. Most have grown so accustomed to seeing the Chiefs win that they think that they can't possibly lose twice in a row. They can, particularly against a dangerous and highly motivated Buffalo team. The perception that the Chiefs can't possibly lose two in a row has helped create plenty of value, particularly in my opinion, for the first half. This is a huge game for the Bills. They're going to be extremely fired up and I expect them to come out flying. Grab the points for the first half and don't be surprised when Buffalo takes a lead into the locker room. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. I successfully played against the Bucs in their last game, a loss at Chicago. However, I like how this one sets up much better. Last game, the Bucs were playing on the road, on a short week. They were also laying more than a field goal. This game sets up much differently. This time, the Bucs are getting points. This time, they're at home. This time, they're playing with extra rest. I also like that Brady was embarrassed in losing. He's going to be determined to bounce back with a big effort and I expect him to do exactly that. (Obviously, both QBs want to beat the other. They're 1-1 in h2h matchups, each winning on his homefield.) Both teams want it, too. Still, this game arguably means more to Brady, Arians and the Bucs. Off their only previous loss, the Bucs responded with a double-digit win. I expect them to bounce back once again, handing the Pack their first loss of the season. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. There are some early similarities between the Demon Deacons and the Cavs. Both have 1-2 SU records. Both are 2-1 ATS.   These teams already have a couple of common opponents. Both have played Clemson. Both have played NC State. Each team went 0-2 in those games. Virginia's win was arugably more impressive though. The Cavs hammered Duke. Wake Forest's victory, though lopsided, was against lowly Campbell. (The Deacons were -34.5 point favorites.) So, the Deacons have yet to defeat a "real" team. While the Cavs may be without QB Brennan Armstrong, backup Lindell Stone completed 30 passes and threw three TDs last week. Coach Bronco Mendenhall noted: "Lindell did not have many practice reps at all with our offense. He was really working with our defense and helping us in that regard, and just that he came in and was effective and moved the football team, I was encouraged by that." Regardless of who is behind center, he'll be working behind an experienced offensive line and I expect the Cavs to get off to a faster start, something Mendenhall has been emphasizing. Mendehall also has an experienced and capable defense. Look for his team to emerge victorious, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. The Saints have a lot going for them, in my opinion. In addition to being very tough to beat at home, they're arguably better on both sides of the ball. Sean Payton gives them an edge in the coaching department. They're still very much alive in the playoff race. The Chargers are not. Of course, there's also a little score to settle. This will likely be the last time that Brees gets to face the Chargers. It may seem like he's been a Saint forever but it was the Chargers who drafted him and then essentially let him go. Brees recently noted: "When I was drafted by the Chargers back in ’01, it was my hope, my plan, to be the franchise quarterback there for my whole career." Note that Brees and the Saints are a perfect 3-0 against the Chargers. While he won't have Thomas to throw to, I say that Brees continues to haunt his old team one final time, the Saints picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Eagles earned a hard-fought win at SF, their first victory of the season. While the Steelers represent a different type of challenge, monkey off their back, I expect the Eagles to carry the positive momentum forward. Just like that, the Eagles are in first place in the NFC East. Really, they're a better team than their record indicates. Due to that record, the Eagles find themselves as a similar sized underdog as last week, a role they thrived in. Its also a lot of points to ask the Steelers to win by. Consider that Philadelphia's last two games have been decided by a combined five points and that Pittsburgh's last two games were both decided by seven points or less. The Steelers have been nothing special (16-22 ATS) over the years, when coming off a bye. While they haven't met since 2016, the Eagles have won two of the last three meetings between these instate rivals and the lone loss (16-14 in 2012) was by just two points. Grab the points and expect another close one. 

I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers have won by "only" 24, 49 and 18 points. Thats led to a poor start at the betting window and some to question how good this year's team is. I expect a visit from Miami to "get them going." The Canes are their toughest test yet, which is why the Tigers aren't favored by quite as much as they were in previous games. Note that they're 6-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 point range. During that span, they've gone 6-1 ATS in October, 14-4 ATS against winning teams and 15-5 ATS in conference play overall. The Canes are off a bye but that hasn't too helpful in recent seasons. They're 0-5 SU/ATS the past five times that they were in that situation. During that span, Miami was 4-9 ATS against teams with a winning record. While the Canes have indeed looked good, Clemson is the first winning team which Miami has faced this season. While Miami does have some great athletes, Clemson is still better on both sides of the ball. Expect the Tigers to silence their critics while providing Miami with a rude reality check.

I'm playing on LA. This series is over. The Lakers know it and deep down, though they would never admit it, I believe that the Heat know it, too. The Heat played a great Game 4 and it still wasn't enough. As I expected, the Lakers elevated their defensive intensity, holding the Heat to a mere 96 points. Specifically, Davis slowed down Butler, a huge factor not seen in the boxscore. Unfortunately, the Lakers only managed 102 themselves, which meant that a "meaningless" Miami 3-pointer in the final second of the game, cost them the cover. That shot aside, I like that I saw from the Lakers. Now, they smell the blood in the water. Its been a long time in the bubble and they're anxious not to extend that time any longer. The Lakers got "only" 50 combined points from James and Davis in Game 4. Those two superstars are both capable of getting that many themselves. I expect the two stars to combine for more than 50 in this one, the Lakers continuing their dominant defense, en route to a win, cover and title. 

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Both teams will be anxious to get back on track here. The Cardinals are more talented on both sides of the ball; I expect them to be the team which does so. In addition to giving up fewer points per game, the Cardinals average 29.7 ppg on offense, while GT averages just 19.3. After back-to-back games in the underdog role, Louisville finds itself favored again. The only previous time that the Cardinals were favored, they took care of business agianst Western Kentucky, a 35-21 win on 9/12. Meanwhile, this isn't a good look for the Yellow-Jackets. They're 0-5 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range, most recently losing by 28 (49-21 on 9/19) in that role earlier this season. Before slowing down at Pittsburgh, the Cardinals had racked up more than 500 yards against Miami. I expect them to have a big day against this defense and don't feel that the Jackets will be able to keep up.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. While I succesfully played against the Bears on Sunday, I like their chances of bouncing back Thursday night. Last week, the Bears were dealing with a Colts defense which ranks #1 in the league in points allowed and #1 in the league in terms of yards allowed. The Bucs haven't been as stingy. While the Colts allow 14 ppg, the Bucs allow 23. The Bears, themselves, allow just 20.3. I like that the Bears are playing at home for the second straight week. Even if the distance isn't that great, traveling while playing on a short week, in 2020, is less than ideal. Prior to Sunday's loss, the Bears had seen all three of their games decided by less than five points. Don't be surprised when this one also comes down to the wire, the Bears with an excellent shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing MIAMI on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Many people have been counting out the Marlins since before the season started. Even fans and believers had to question the team after they got hit by Covid early in the season. But this team never listened and never quit. They continued to silence the critics and continued to fight. Now, they probably have dug themselves too deep a hole to climb out of, against a very good Braves' team. However, don't tell them that. Like always, Mattingly's team will not go down without putting up a fight. In the first two games, the Marlins were at a disadvantage in the starting pitching department, at least on paper. Alcantara was really good but he was matched up against Fried, one of the top pitchers in the game. Yesterday, they had Lopez making his first playoff start against Anderson, who had already just thrown a masterpiece, the Wildcard Rd. The shoe is on the other foot this afternoon though. This time, its Miami's Sanchez who comes off a gem in the Wildcard Rd, taking on Atlanta's Wright, who hasn't pitched since 9/25. Note that Wright is 2-7 for his career with a 6.22 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. As for Sanchez, he quietly had a 3.21 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season and comes in full of confidence, after dominating the Cubs. With the Braves favored on the money-line, we're able to get the extra +1.5 runs with the Marlins for a very reasonable price. Expect AT LEAST a "run line cover." 

I'm playing OAKLAND on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The A's are clearly going to be desperate. While they weren't able to bounce back yesterday, this is still a very resilient team. I fully expect their best effort. Luzardo didn't fare too well against the White Sox. However, southpaws rarely do. I'm confident that he'll fare better against a Houston team which he pitched very well against both previous times. Yes, the A's won both of Luzardo's starts against the Astros, 3-2 last month and 7-2 in August. Luzardo was solid in both, allowing four runs in 12 2/3 combined innings. Even factoring in the 4-1 loss to Chicago in the Wildcard Rd, the A's were still 6-4 in Luzardo's starts. Four of the 10, including two of the losses, came by a single run. In other words, one would be 8-2 if getting +1.5 in each of Luzardo's starts. The Astros, on the other hand, were just 3-3 when Urquidy started. Three of the six were decided by a single run, including two of the past three. The A's won when Urquidy started against them on 9/10. Expect AT LEAST another "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on LA. I really didn't think that the Heat would go down without a fight. Jimmy Butler made sure that they didn't. All Butler did, in willing his team to victory, was put up the third 40-point-triple-double in NBA Finals history. Butler would finish with 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. As you know, the series now sits at 2-1. It wasn't just Butler, the entire Miami team outworked the Lakers. That said, the Heat can't expect a super-human effort from Butler every night. The Lakers have received their wake-up call and they're not going to get outworked again. The last thing that they want to do is give this young Miami team more hope than it has. I expect Lebron, Davis and co. to be entirely focused from the opening tip and I look for them keep the pedal to the metal, in terms of intensity, the entire way. Butler will get points but the Lakers will make sure he doesn't have a repeat performance from Game 3. This year's Heat are just 4-11-1 ATS when off an upset win. Going back further finds Miami at only 20-38-3 ATS when off a double-digit win. Lay the points and expect James and Davis to deliver a statement. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. As you may have heard, the 49ers have been hit extremely hard by injuries. They were able to overcome those injury issues against the Giants and Jets. However, now they're facing a winless and desperate Eagle team, one which comes in badly in need of a victory. Yes, Philadelphia is also dealing with some injuries. However, those injuries aren't as bad or as numerous as SF's injuries. Keep in mind that the 49ers played without 10 starters last week. While they may have other areas of concern, the Eagles' defensive line is excellent. They were all over Burrow (8 sacks, 18 QB hits) last week and will be all over the QB again here. On the other side of the ball, turnovers have hurt. I expect them to clean that up here. The 49ers were fortunate to face the two NY teams when they did. Expect them to have their hands full Sunday night. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. This is it for the Heat. They obviously can't afford to go down 0-3. (No team has come back from down 3-0.) They need to leave everything on the floor in this game and thats exactly what I expect them to do. Clearly, the Lakers are an excellent team. Still, they played a near-flawless game and couldn't pull away from the Heat. The Heat actually outscored the Lakers by four points in the second half and finally started playing the type of defense (held LA to 21 in the 4th) that they need to, in order to compete. They obviously aren't going to be able to shut down Davis entirely. Still, the expected return of Bam Adebayo, their best defender, will at least help slow him down. Still 12-4-1 ATS in these playoffs, look for the Heat to build off their strong second half in Game 2, playing their best game of the series and earning AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on BYU. This figures to be a one-sided blowout. The Cougars have crushed both opponents which they have faced. They beat Navy 55-3 and they beat Troy 48-7. They should be able to do the same to an LA Tech team which is essentially in rebuilding mode on defense. Yes, the Bulldogs are 2-0. However, they've given up 30 or more points in both games. Last game, Houston Baptist scored 38 against them. Indeed, BYU will have no trouble scoring. This hasn't been a kind role for the Bulldogs over the years; they're 6-14 ATS (1-19 SU) the past 20 times that they were underdogs in the 21.5 to 31.5 point range. I say the Cougars, 8-3 ATS their last 11 against CUSA opponents, put up a big number with the overmatched Bulldogs being unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on LA. The Heat have been on a great run and have taken down some good teams. They haven't faced a team with the size, talent and playoff experience like the Lakers though. Indeed, the Lakers are a far more complete team than the ones which Miami has faced and they come in on a mission. Both teams won big in closing out the Conf. Finals. LA beat Denver by 10 while Miami defeated Boston by a dozen. However, the Heat are just 11-16 ATS off a double-digit win, an ugly 20-37-3 ATS (24-36 SU) their past 60 in that situation. During that span, the Lakers were a much better 35-26-3 ATS (45-19 SU) off a double-digit win. The Lakers took both regular season meetings, the wins coming by an average of 7.5 points. Expect Lebron, Davis and co. to start things with a statement win. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Both teams are 0-2. Both will be hungry for a win. I expect the Eagles to be a little more desperate though and I believe that they bring more to the table. Obviously, Burrow and the Bengals want their first win. Expectations are pretty low in Cincinnati though. Nobody will be too upset if it takes a couple of years for Burrow and the new look team to start winning. Thats not the case for the Eagles though; this is a team which expects to win now. They're going to come in angry and I expect Burrow and co. to suffer the consequences. While they're highly motivated, the Eagles aren't pushing the panic button. Wentz had this to say: "We're not panicking. The sky is not falling. We have the potential with the pieces we have on this offense to be elite, to be great and we're excited to come out (next week) and start showing it.'' The Eagles are a resilient team, having dealt with a lot in recent seasons. Sanders noted: "...it's a long season and we're going to have opportunities. It takes resiliency and that's the type of team we have.'' Expect the resilient Eagles to bounce back, securing their first win and picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA MONROE. Off to an 0-2 start, the Warhawks will be happy to step down in class and into the favorite role. They're also going to be highly motivated to get that first win. As tight end Josh Pederson noted: "The guys are hungry for that first win. Obviously we’re not happy about the last two weeks, but this game is an opportunity for us to get on track and I definitely think this is a must-win week." Note that Louisiana Monroe faces a UTEP team which is just 7-14-1 ATS (0-22 SU!) the past few seasons, when listed as an underdog. Indeed, the Miners are among the worst teams in the country. They do have two wins this season but those came against FCS teams. They haven't beaten an FBS opponent or won on the road since 2018. Playing in a "must win week," I say the Warhawks pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm taking the points with MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE. After back-to-back ugly losses to start the season, the Blue Raiders are going to be hungry to show everyone that they're better than those results indicate. Yes, they've struggled but this is a team they match up well against and they're coming in expecting to win. The Roadrunners are off to an impressive 2-0 start. However, keep in mind that one of those wins came by three points in double-OT and that the other came against lowly ranked Stephen F. Austin. After failing to cover in that game against Stephen Austin, the Roadrunners are just 4-9 ATS in home games the past couple of seasons, 1-3 ATS as favorites. Expect them to have their hands full once again. 

I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. The Nuggets continue to hang around and they deserve credit for their Game 3 win. Still, this is not the Clippers that they're playing. These Lakers are an extremely talented and determined team, on a mission to get to and win the Finals. The Nuggets got a huge Game 3 from Grant but they can't count on a repeat performance from him and lack a reliable third scoring option. The last time that the Lakers lost, they responded by winning six straight games, the first five of those victories all coming by a minimum of eight points. Off their prior loss before that, the Lakers responded with four straight wins. All victories came by a minimum of eight points. Expect the Lakers to respond once again, delivering a statement double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on UAB. The Blazers lost QB Tyler Johnston to injury. That's not ideal. However, its been factored into the line and we're getting UAB at a bit better price as a result. Importantly, backup Bryson Lucero has played in both games and with the Blazers off last weekend, he's had plenty of time to prepare for the starting role. I believe that the Blazers, who started the season a 10-point win before losing at Miami, have a talent advantage in this one. Keep in mind that this is an extremely experienced UAB team, one which feels capable of winning the rest of its games. Indeed, UAB returned 18 starters. The Blazers are 14-6-1 ATS in recent seasons when laying points and they're 4-1 ATS when coming off a bye. Look for the Blazers, who rarely lose in their home state, to improve on those stats, delivering a statement win over their "instate rival." 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I like how this one sets up for the Texans and believe that they're offering plenty of value. Everyone just saw the Texans get beaten up by the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Ravens just blew out the Browns. So, many are down on the Texans and high on the Ravens. Thats led to generous points with the Texans as a home underdog. Yes, the Ravens are good. But, its important not to over-react to one game. The Texans are better than they showed. They generated some momentum towards the end of the KC game and I expect them to carry it into this one. I really like that they've had an extra couple of days, due to having played on Thursday. This early in the season, after not having had a preseason, I believe that extra rest and preparation time will prove significant. While not having Hopkins hurts, Watson still has some weapons including Fuller who caught 8 of 10 for more than 100 yards. David Johnson showed promise out of the backfield (more than 100 total yards and a TD) and figures to be a big upgrade at running back. The Texans haven't forgotten that the Ravens hammered them last season, at Baltimore. They're coming in highly motivated. While I absolutely like their chances of the outright win, I expect their best effort to lead to AT LEAST a cover on Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISS. The Bulldogs are off a good season and they've got a 'big name' coach. This is a unique 'pandemic situation' though. LA Tech didnt play its first game due to Covid issues. It wasnt just a few players either. Nearly the entire roster has been out; more than 50 players were unavailable for the Baylor game. They've been dealing with extensive testing and stress and have been unable to properly practice or prepare. Hurricane season doesn't help matters. Remember, the Bulldogs lost a lot from last year's defense, too. Meanwhile, Southern Miss already has a game under its belt and now they've had a chance to work out some of their issues. The fact that the Golden Eagles lost that one should add to their determination here. The South Alabama loss notwithstanding, the Golden Eagles are typically pretty tough at home. Expect them to show no sympathy for their guests in this one. 

I'm playing on LA. The Nuggets have surprised a lot of people, myself included. This is an entirely different matchup though. I expect their exhausting comeback against the Clippers to catch up with them against a rested and determined Laker team. Lebron and co. watched what Denver did to the Clippers and will not be taken by surprise or come in thinking this will be easy. Expect the Lakers to be fully focused, determined to seize control of this series right out of the gate. Since these teams played a close one on 8/10, the Lakers have won eight games. All eight of those victories came by a minimum of eight points. I expect a double-digit statement win in this one. 

I'm playing COLORADO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While they want to keep winning, the Dodgers have already clinched a playoff spot. The Rockies, on the other hand, are desperate. Their playoff hopes are dwindling and they simply can't afford to keep losing. I like their chances in this one. Freeland has a respectable 4.22 ERA in six home starts. Meanwhile, Urias has a 5.40 ERA and poor 1.714 WHIP on the road. The Rockies have already seen him this month, Urias allowing four runs in 4 1/3 innings. That was a 1-run game, won by the Rockies. Desperate for a victory, expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover' in this one. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I really like how this one sets up for the Browns. Both teams lost their opener. However, the Browns were crushed by Baltimore while Cincy lost a close one vs. the Chargers. That may have many thinking that the Bengals played better. However, the fashion that they lost that one (outscored 10-0 in 4th) figures to be harder to bounce back from (more deflating) than the Browns' blowout loss. Indeed, the Browns were embarrassed and they will be absolutely determined to bounce back and prove to the world that they aren't a joke. Remember, this is a team which has been stockpiling talent on both sides of the ball for years now. As Baker Mayfield noted: "Sometimes a wake-up call is good for everybody. A punch in the mouth and that’s how we should take it." Also, keep in mind that the Browns were on the road against a very tough Baltimore team last week while the Bengals played at home. Note that the Bengals are just 2-13 SU their last 15 on the road. The Browns have had success on Thursdays, going 8-4 ATS their last 12 and 2-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons. That includes a 21-7 win over the Steelers last season. Expect them to bounce back with an important win and cover. 

I'm playing CHICAGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While I like Chicago's chances of winning this one 'outright,' in a game which could well be close, I'm happy to improve my chances even further and grab the extra +1.5 runs. Cease keeps the Sox in the game every time out. In fact, since allowing four runs in his first start back in July, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in all eight starts, two or less in seven of those. Overall, Chicago is 5-4 in his starts. However, a closer look shows that three of those four losses came by a single run. In other words, one would be 8-1 if getting an extra +1.5 runs with the Sox in each of Cease's starts. In three home starts, Cease has a stellar 1.72 ERA. While Berrios can be tough at times, he's got a poor 6.75 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in four road starts. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover' from Cease and the Sox. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. With quite a few years in the Patriots' organization and coming highly recommended from Belichick, its entirely possible that Joe Judge will go on to have a successful head coaching career. However, before that ever happens, I expect him to receive an unfriendly welcome to the head coaching fraternity by Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. Over the past few months, Judge has had to do a lot of things for the first time. He and the Giants very likely would have benefitted from the chance to get to know each other better over a few preseason games. Tomlin, on the other hand, knows his team well. They got horrible QB play last year and were still competitive. Now, the Steelers get Rothlisberger back and he'll surely be an improvement. Meanwhile, the defense is expected to rank among the league's best. Despite no preseason games, NY still managed to lose some starters to injury. The Giants' secondary was already thin and they lost Xavier McKinney. Though a rookie, he was expected to be their starting free safety. Meanwhile, linebacker David Mayo (143 tackles last year) also went down. While the Giants are projected to win six games this season, the Steelers O/U line is 9.5. Expect Tomlin's team to get the first of those Monday night, covering the relatively small number along the way.

I'm playing TEXAS on the run-line (+1.5 runs) I expect the Rangers to win this one outright but am happy to grab the extra +1.5 runs to improve my/their chances even further. Lynn was extremely sharp last time out. Through seven innings, he limited the Angels to one run on four hits. He's gone a minimum of six innings in nine of 10 starts, going five in the other. Off yesterday's double-header, Lynn's ability to provide innings is even more important. Overall, he's averaged 6.4 innings per start. Montas, on the other hand, averages 4.8 innings per start, 4.3 innings per road start. Lynn has a 2.52 ERA and 0.979 WHIP on the season. At home, his ERA dips to 2.00. Montas has a 5.73 ERA and in four road starts, he's got a horrible 9.00 ERA and 1.941 WHIP. Grab the extra +1.5 runs with Lynn and the Rangers.

I'm playing on LA. Give the Nuggets a lot of credit for hanging around. However, I believe that the Clippers will prove to be too much for them today. LA is a ridiculous 17-1 SU and 14-4 ATS when off an upset loss. Friday's loss was just the sixth for LA since returning to play. The Clippers followed up all five previous losses with a victory and they won those five games by an average of 17 points, three of those coming by 13 or more. They're the more complete and talented team and I see them pulling away for another double-digit win this afternoon. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. This is the first time in the Vikings' 60-year history that they will open a season at home, against Green Bay. These teams have won 10 of the past 12 division titles and 14 of the past 18. If projected win totals mean anything, it'll likely be one or the other, once again. In other words, this is a big game. The Packers took both last season's meetings and went on to win the division title. The Vikings know they can't afford to let that happen again; I expect them to have the edge in Sunday afternoon's season opener. While Rodgers has been an elite QB for a long time, he's nearly 37 and can only do so much with a fairly limited supporting cast. The Vikings do have some new faces but the key contributors are back. While he doesn't have the big name of Rodgers, Cousins is off a strong year, finishing with a 107.4 passer rating. He threw for 3600+ yards with 26 TDs against six INTs. Dalvin Cook will play a prominent role and he's reportedly looked great in camp. I believe Minnesota has a slight edge on defense. While it should be a good game, I say the Vikes get the win and cover. 

I'm playing on KANSAS. Last year, here at Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Coastal Carolina beat Kansas by a score of 12-7. It was the first time that the Chanticleers had EVER beaten a 'Power 5' school. Needless to say, Les Miles and co. haven't forgotten. While the Jayhawks are young, they're still the more talented team here. The fact that they don't have to travel more than 1000 miles during a pandemic also works in their favor. Coastal Carolina coach Chadwell acknowledged that travel presents challenges: "They know we can lose somebody today to quarantine or whatever it may be. Until we get on that plane, there is going to be some apprehension ..." Addtionally, Coastal Carolina had to relocate due to Hurricane Dorian. (The Chanticleers stayed and training in South Carolina's Upstate region.) Les Miles knows his team needs to beat the likes of the Chanticleers. He'll have his team ready; I say its "payback time."

I'm playing on ND. The Irish hammered the Blue Devils 38-7 last season. That kicked off a stretch which saw the Irish close out their season by winning each of their final five games by 21 or more points. Expectations are very high this season and I look for the Irish, now part of the ACC, to make a statement in this one. While Duke is capable defensively, it won't be capable enough to stop this Irish attack. Indeed, ND brings back eight starters including QB Ian Book, who had 34 TDs against just six INTs last season. Speaking of Book, he was outstanding against the Blue Devils last season and that was at Duke. He threw for four TDs while gaining 139 yards on the ground. In fact, in that game, he became the first ND QB to throw for three or more TDs and run for more than 100 yards. Things were already bad on the offensive side of the ball for Blue Devils but losing starting center Wohlabaugh to a knew injury was a major blow. Of the chance to play in the ACC, Brian Kelly noted: "...Our players are excited though, quite honestly, that they get a chance to play for a championship - an ACC championship.'' Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on UAB. Obviously, the Canes have the bigger name and hail from the bigger conference. They get to recruit the better players. That said, the Blazers have a lot working in their favor here. They've already got a game under their belts and put up 45 points in the process. They arguably played better than the 45-35 score indicates, too. Central Arkansas got a few scores off turnovers; UAB had a 459-293 edge in total yards, including a 233-100 rushing advantage. Having worked out a few kinks will help them here. Keep in mind that UAB went 9-5 last season and won a bowl game. While the Blazers return a number of key starters, the Canes lost a lot of them. Miami has struggled as a favorite in recent seasons and will have its hands full here. Grab the generous points.

I'm playing on LA. The Nuggets hung around for the cover last game. However, I believe that the Clippers are the more complete team and I expect them to pull away in this one. Both teams have allowed a nearly identical number of points, per playoff game. The Nuggets have allowed an average of 112.8 ppg in the playoffs while the Clippers have allowed 112.9. However, on the other side of the ball, Denver is averaging just 108.6 while LA is averaging a whopping 121.6. Even with the non-cover last time out, the Clippers are still 38-29-1 ATS (50-18 SU) when laying points. The Clippers won by 23 in the first one. I'm expecting another double-digit win tonight.