Sports Picks & Predictions

I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs took the Mavs’ best punch in Game 1. While they didn’t cover, they emerged victorious. I expect that close call to serve as a wake up call and feel that the Mavs aren’t likely to get another shot at an upset. 

 

The common logic here seems to be that if the Mavs were so close, even without a big game from Dirk. That now if Dirk plays better, they’ll win easily. That’s not necessarily the case though. Everything else is never equal - so one can’t look at it that way. 

 

The Spurs are 29-4 SU and 22-11 ATS the last 33 times that they played with two day’s rest in between games. They’ve dominated in the first round the past couple of seasons and I look for them to prove they’re the more complete team tonight. 10* personal favorite

 

I’m playing on CHICAGO. Both teams lost yesterday. For Orlando, it was just another loss, business as usual. However, for the Bulls, it was a big loss, a game they would have liked to have won. I expect this well-coached team to bounce back with its best effort.

While the Bulls already know they’ll have home court advantage for the first round, they’re still trying to finish with the #3 seed, instead of the #4, which is the reason yesterday’s loss was a tough one.

Noah had this to say about yesterday’s game and the importance of getting ready for today: "We let a big game slip. It was probably the biggest game of the season. Disappointing the way our mentality wasn't good, but overall we just won't have time, just got to let this one go, get ready tomorrow.”

The Bulls can still get the #3 seed but they need to win both their games (after this, they play at Charlotte on Wednesday) and hope that Toronto loses one of its games. (The Bulls could also lose one and hope that Toronto loses both its last two but given the Raptors are hosting Milwaukee tonight, that scenario isn’t that likely.)

While the Bulls are 26-14 at home, the Magic are 4-36 on the road. No other team has a worse road record.

The Bulls, who are 9-6-1 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games, are in one of this season's better roles here. They’re 3-1 ATS as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. (The Magic are 2-3 ATS as road underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range.)

The last time that the Bulls played the second of b2b games, they won by 18 points, at Washington. Their previous two times in that situation both also resulted in double-digit wins.

Not only do the Bulls need to win to stay alive for the #3 seed, this is also their regular season home finale. Additionally, the Magic beat them here earlier in the season. In other words, there should be no shortage of motivation. I’m expecting a blowout. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on INDIANA. Some might scratch their heads a little to see the Pacers favored here. After all, they’ve really struggled in recent weeks while the Thunder have continued to play well. I believe Indiana is favored for good reason though.

For starters, lets not forget that the Pacers are still 34-6 at home. That’s a much better record than the Thunder have on the road. (They’re 25-14 away from OKC.)

While the Thunder allow more than 100 points (101.2) per game on the road, the Pacers allow just 87.8 here at Indiana.

Perhaps more importantly, at least in this case, the Pacers “need” this game more than the Thunder. OKC already has the #2 seed locked up. It can’t get better, or worse. I’m not counting on it - but its possible that the Thunder could limit the minutes of one/some of their stars/starters.

Meanwhile, the Pacers are still in the hunt for the top seed in the East - although they’ll still need a little help from the Heat. The fact that Miami lost by double-digits at Atlanta last night figures to give them some hope.

While gaining the #1 seed would surely be a big deal for the Pacers, just gaining some confidence from being able to beat a championship contender - one they would love to see in the Finals - would be huge. Many of their recent struggles would be forgotten if they could go out and deliver a victory this afternoon. I expect them to be extremely motivated to do just that.

While I’ve already mentioned that the Thunder have played better than the Pacers down the stretch, it should be noted that OKC is actually only 7-10 ATS its last 17 against teams with a winning record.

The Pacers, who got blown out at OKC earlier, are 12-9 ATS (16-5 SU) when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. I expect them to bring their “A Game” here, improving on those stats in convincing fashion. 10* Main Event

I’m playing on UTAH. The Blazers are hot. The Jazz are not. The Blazers are getting ready for the playoffs and fighting for a better seed. The Jazz are getting ready to go golfing. Needless to say, most will likely be backing Portland. As is often the case, I’ll be on the opposite side.

Its true that the Blazers have more to play for, on paper. Its also true that they’ve been a better team all year. That’s all been factored into the line though. I believe the number is generously high and I look for the Jazz to provide a much tougher test than most will be expecting.

The Jazz lost their last game (against Dallas) by double-digits. I believe there were some positives though. The Mavs hit 16 of their first 17 shots, which is awfully tough to overcome. Yet, the Jazz didn’t hang their heads. They kept fighting the whole way. In fact, while the damage was already done, they outscored Dallas after the first period. (They won two of the final three quarters while losing the other by a single point.)

While the Blazers are hot, I don’t expect them to hit 16 of their first 17 shots - and I look for Utah to have learned a lesson from the last loss and to come out with more intensity from the opening tip.

Utah’s Trey Burke noted: We have to be patient ... continue to fight out there, continue to play hard … It's tough to beat a team when they're shooting 94 percent in the first quarter. We can't allow that to happen."

While they’ve still been solid on the road, the Blazers aren’t as dominating away from Portland. They outscore teams by an average of 1.4 points on the road. Meanwhile, the Jazz get outscored by an average of 3.2 points per game at home.

This is the Blazers’ final road game and they’re ned two games come against a pair of playoff teams, the Warriors and the Clippers. I believe it will be easy for them to take the “lowly Jazz” for granted.

Meanwhile, this is Utah’s final game against a team which will be going to the playoffs. For the Jazz, that means that this is their final “meaningful game” (chance to play a small role in shaping the playoff picture) and I expect that to provide them with some motivation. (Their next three games come at Denver, vs the Lakers and at Minnesota.)

Added motivation for the Jazz stems from the fact that the Blazers have beaten them in all three meetings this season. They’ll be looking to avoid the series sweep, something which has never happened against Portland.

The Blazers have only won one of their last five games by more than seven points, that 12-point win coming against the banged-up Lakers. Their last two games came against the Pelicans and Kings and were decided by just five combined points.

The Jazz are a profitable 9-5 ATS (7-7 SU) after scoring 85 or fewer points in their previous game. They’ve been in that situation twice since the start of March and they responded by winning each of their next games outright. I expect AT LEAST another cover tonight. 10* N.W. Div GOY.

I’m playing on WASHINGTON. This is a big game for both teams, in terms of postseason seeding. Both teams have already punched their playoff tickets. However, they’re batting each other for the sixth spot. Playing at home, I expect the Wizards to have the edge.

Sixth place figures to be a more attractive proposition than seventh. That’s because it would mean facing either Toronto or Chicago in the first round. The alternative is Indiana or Miami, for the team which finishes in seventh. Even with the Pacers’ recent struggles, they’ve still been pretty hard to beat at home and a date with the Bulls or Raptors is likely more appealing - needless to say, they won’t want to have to face Miami.

While the Bobcats are a respectable 23-16 at home, they’re only 16-22 on the road.

The Bobcats may have taken two of three meetings against the Wizards so far but they’re still only 4-10 SU and 6-8 ATS against divisional opponents. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 8-5 SU and 7-5-1 ATS in their divisional games.

While the Bobcats are 9-13 SU off an upset win, the Wizards are 8-5 SU off an upset loss.

Throw in the fact that the Wizards are 24-17 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier loss and I say its time for some payback. 10* personal fav

I’m playing on PHOENIX. While I really respect the Thunder, I believe they’re over-valued here.

The Thunder are certainly a solid road team. However, the Suns have arguably been even better here at Phoenix.

While the Thunder have 23 wins away from OKC, the Suns have 25 wins here at Phoenix.

The Thunder outscore teams by a 104.8 to 100.8 margin on the road. However, the Suns have outscored teams by a wider 108.2 to 102.6 margin here at Phoenix.

Not only have the Suns been arguably better at home than the Thunder have on the road, they also need this game more. OKC is fairly comfortably in second in the conference while the Suns are in a dogfight with Memphis and Dallas for the final spot.

With four of their final five on the road, this game becomes even more critical for the Suns. While they lost both at OKC, they upset the Thunder in this season’s lone meeting here.

Including last month's result here, the Thunder are 2-4 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Meanwhile, the Suns are a lucrative 27-13 ATS when listed as underdogs. I expect them to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST another cover here. 10* best bet

I’m playing on INDIANA. While the Pacers have had real trouble on the road recently, they’re still very tough to beat here at home. I expect their best effort today.

The Pacers are an outstanding 24-1 at home against Eastern Conference opponents, 34-5 here overall. That includes a 108-98 win against the Hawks here on 2/18. They were favored by 10 points in that one - but we’re getting a better line to work with here.

Including that victory, the Pacers have beaten the Hawks six straight times here. They were 4-1-1 ATS in those games, five of the wins coming by double-digits.

While they could badly use a win, the Hawks are in one of their worst roles. They’re an ugly 1-6 ATS (0-7 SU) as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 9 range. Overall, they’re an ugly 2-13 their last 15 on the road, going a money-burning 3-11-1 ATS.

The Pacers, who play three of their final four on the road, have only one more regular season home game after this - and that comes against OKC. That makes taking care of business here very important - and I expect them to do just that. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on FLORIDA. While the Huskies deserve a lot of credit for making it this far, I expect their run to come to an end here.

While both teams are very capable on both sides of the ball, I believe the Gators’ edge on the defensive end of the floor will ultimately prove the difference.

The Gators allow 56.7 points per game. The Huskies allow 63.7. Over their last five games, the Gators are allowing a mere 56 points, holding opposing teams to a 39% shooting percentage. During that stretch, the Huskies are allowing 69.4 points with opposing teams shooting 42.7%.

Speaking of good defenses, note that the Huskies are only 4-6 SU/ATS the last 10 times that they faced a team which allowed 64 or fewer points per game. During that stretch, the Gators are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) when facing a team which gives up 64 or less.

While Scottie Wilbekin was the SEC Player of the Year, he isn’t get the same type of recognition that Shabazz Napier is. Whether or not that’s fair, I believe that the rest of the Gator lineup is far more balanced. Four Florida players average double-digits in scoring.

It should be noted that this is Billy Donovan’s fourth Final Four and he’s won in each of his three previous trips.

True, the Huskies did beat the Gators earlier in the season. However, Florida hasn’t lost a game since then. While being in the Final 4 is all the motivation any team needs, it should be noted that the Gators are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. I expect them to improve on those stats in relatively convincing fashion. 10*

I’m playing on BOSTON. The road team has won both meetings so far this season. I expect a big win for the home team this evening though.

On an extended losing streak and with four of their next five on the road - one of those at Philadelphia against these same 76’ers - the Celtics know that this is their best opportunity to reward the home faithful with one last big win.

Boston guard Jerryd Bayless had this to say: "I think Friday is another opportunity, and we just need to take advantage of it. We have a winnable game on Friday and hopefully we're able to pull it out .. "

While the 76’ers finally stopped the bleeding a few games back, they’re still a terrible team. They lost by 30 (vs. Charlotte) last time out and they get outscored by an average of 12 points per game away from Philadelphia.

Note that the 76’ers are an ugly 15-31 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game.

Bottom line: I expect the Celtics to be the more motivated team and I look for them to pull away for a double-digit victory. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on MEMPHIS. After a tough road trip, the Grizzlies figure to be happy to be home. Off an ugly loss at Minnesota, I expect them to bounce back with a big win.

The Grizzlies haven’t had many home games lately. In fact, they’ve only played six games at Memphis since the start of March. A closer look at those results shows that they were a perfect 6-0 in those games and that EVERY one of the wins came by double-digits.

Going back a little further finds that the Grizzlies are a perfect 10-0 here since mid-February, a dominating 16-2 here since 1/10.

On the other hand, the Nuggets are only 13-24 on the road this season. They’ve lost their last four on the road and two of their last three away games resulted in double-digit losses.

The Grizzlies know they need all the wins that they can get right now. They also know they’ve got some tough games on deck, making it all the more important to take advantage of tonight’s opportunity. They beat the Nuggets by 21 points (120-99) in this season’s lone meeting here and I expect another double-digit win this evening. 10* Main Event

I’m playing on OKC. Admittedly, its tough to beat the Spurs. Indeed, no team has done so for many weeks. The Thunder are one of the few clubs capable of doing so though. In fact, the Thunder have beaten the Spurs four straight times overall and six straight times, here at OKC. With the schedule in their favor, I look for the Thunder to continue that recent dominance, snapping the Spurs’ win streak at 19.

While the Thunder had the last few days off, the Spurs are off a game vs. the Warriors last night. True, they’re more than capable of winning in a b2b spot. Still, this will also be their third game in four days and their fifth in the last seven. Going back a little further finds that this will be the Spurs’ ninth game in 14 days. By comparison, this will be OKC’s sixth game, during the same stretch.

That’s a pretty difficult scheduling spot for the Spurs, even if their wins have been coming easily. While Popovich doesn’t always reveal his plans until close to game-time, given his tendencies and the tough schedule, it certainly wouldn’t surprise to see one or more players given the night off.

It would be easy to assume that the Spurs are great in the “revenge” role. After all, they’re so well-coached and they’re very good in nearly every role. That hasn’t been the case this season though. They’re 7-12 ATS when attempting to avenge a loss, 6-3 ATS when attempting to avenge a home loss.

Playing at home and playing with the fresher legs, I expect the Thunder, who are still trying to catch the Spurs in the standings to take care of business. 10* main event

I’m playing on DETROIT. I successfully played on the Bucks on 3/27, in their win against the Lakers. At the time, I suggested that they would be highly motivated to take advantage of the most winnable game remaining on their schedule. This time, I believe the shoe is on the other foot. A look at the Pistons’ remaining schedule shows that this is the most winnable game remaining on Detroit’s schedule, at least on paper. This time, I expect it to be the Pistons who will be highly motivated to make the most of the opportunity to win one for the home fans.

While the Pistons are admittedly pretty bad, the Bucks are worse. Their 14-59 record, which is the worst in the league, includes an ugly 5-31 mark on the road. They’re 1-19 SU on the road in 2014, 0-9 their last nine.

While they split this season’s meetings at Milwaukee, the Pistons are 15-5 the last 20 times that they hosted the Bucks. That includes a 113-94 blowout win here back in November.

In addition to wanting to snap their skid and win one for the home fans, I believe the Pistons will be hungry to bounce back from Saturday’s debacle, at Philadelphia. Its bad enough that they were the team that the 76’ers snapped their losing streak against, but the 76’ers crushed them. That was embarrassing and I look for them to respond with their very best effort, en route to a convincing win and cover. 10*

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SPECIAL NOTE: Sorry for any confusion last night. This play was originally entered on the incorrect side (Elon). A note was left for subscribers about this. That incorrect play has been eliminated and the true/correct play on Furman is ready. Once again, sorry if this caused any troubles for anyone. Kind regards.

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10* Arizona. Analysis before 7am PST. PAC 12 GOY

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