Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on COLORADO 10* BEST BET. The Ducks are obviously a very strong team. However, I feel that they're a little over-valued here. The Buffaloes snapped a losing streak last game, knocking off Oregon State. That gives them some much-needed positive momentum and confidence. It should be noted that each of their previous three losses had come by three or fewer points. The Buffaloes, who lost by single-digits at Arizona, have beaten Xavier here. They've beaten Texas on a neutral floor while losing by six against Notre Dame. They got blown out at Oregon last year but beat the Ducks by four here at Colorado. In fact, they're 4-0 against Oregon here since 1997. I expect them to give the Ducks all they can handle again here. 

 I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* PERS FAV. The Nuggets are expected to be without but Mudiay and Jokic here. The Jokic injury is particularly significant as he's been an absolute beast in recent weeks. The Suns will be playing with "triple revenge." Not only did they lose twice to the Nuggets earlier in the season but they also just lost at Denver a couple of days ago. Counting that one as a 'push,' the Suns are a healthy 10-3-1 ATS their last 14 games. They're 19-14-2 ATS the last 35 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss and I expect them to get some "payback" this evening. 

I'm playing on IOWA. 10* MAIN EVENT. With the pointspread likely a non-factor, I expect homecourt to make the difference in this one. The Hawkeyes are 10-3 at home, outscoring teams by an average score of 87.2 to 75.6 here. On the other hand, the Buckeyes are 2-5 away from home, getting outscored by a 75 to 69-point margin. Going back further finds Ohio State at 10-16 in true road games the past 2+ seasons, while Iowa is 37-9 at home. Hawkeyes bounce back. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* PERS FAV. Off a loss last time out, the Grizzlies are going to be in a foul mood tonight. The Phoenix are a capable team and they average a healthy 79.8 ppg. In fact, thats more ppg than Oakland, which averages 78. However, the Grizzlies tend to be at their best against high-scoring teams and the Phoenix remain below .500 on the road. The well-coached Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS the past couple of seasons against teams which score more than 77 ppg. During that stretch, they're also an outstanding 32-15 ATS against teams with a winning record overall. While GB may score more points per game overall, the Phoenix get outscored on the road, where they allow a whopping 79.6 per game. Oakland, on the other hand, outscores teams by an average score of 82.4 to 69.7 here at home. The Grizzlies have dominated the Phoenix here, including an 18-point win last season and a 20-point win here two seasons ago. I'm expecting another double-digit win this evening. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. These teams have split a pair of meetings this season. In both cases, the home team won and covered. I expect homecourt to prove the difference once again. The Hawks are a solid 13-9 at home. The Wizards are a terrible 6-14 on the road. Atlanta averages 105.5 ppg at home while Washington allows 107.9 ppg on the road. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* ANNIHILATOR. Off three straight losses, the Cavs are going to be an angry team tonight. Lebron was clearly not happy in the post-game interviews after the Sacramento loss. I expect him to be "on a mission" tonight. Note that the Cavs are 1-0 SU/ATS after losing three straight this season. 

While the line may seem high, note that the Cavs are 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) on the season, when favored in the -12.5 to -18 range. As for the Nets, they're 2-4 ATS (0-6 SU) when listed as road underdogs in the +12.5 to +18 range. 

The Cavs have beaten the Nets by 20 points in each of the last two meetings here at Cleveland. I expect another blowout. 

I'm playing on DARTMOUTH 10* BEST BET. Admittedly, the Big Green had a terrible start to the season. They started to turn things around with three straight wins to close out December. However, they threw up an air-ball in their first game of 2017, losing by four points to CS-Bakersfield. Since then, they've played just two games - and both happened to come against Harvard, the top team in the Ivy League. Not surprisingly, they lost both of those, too. The Lions, who are off b2b close games (1 win, 1 loss) against Cornell, aren't in the same class as Harvard though. They're also one of a few teams with a better record away from home. With a big showdown on deck vs. Harvard on deck tomorrow, it may be easy to get caught looking past Dartmouth. That'll be a mistake though as Columbia isn't strong enough to overlook any team. Only three of the Lions' 15 games has resulted in a win by more than eight. Prior to the Harvard games, Dartmouth had seen five of six games decided by six or fewer points and the other was a 14-point win. Look for this one to also prove much closer than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on UTAH 10* PERS FAV. Oregon is admittedly a strong team which is playing well. The Ducks are fully deserving of their national ranking. That said, I believe that the Utes opened as favorites for good reason. 

The Utes, who lost by one here against UCLA, know that they desperately need a "signature win." They also know that this will be one of the last opportunities for them to get one. 

Utah didn't have very high expectations coming into the season. The Utes have proven to be much better than most expected though and come in full of confidence. They're 6-1 ATS (5-2 SU) within the conference. They're also 8-5 ATS (12-1 SU) when laying points.

The Utes 81.6 ppg has them ranked second in the conference, in terms of scoring. The number has been on the rise too, as they've scored 82 or more points in five straight games. Over that 5-game stretch, the Utes are averaging a whopping 87.6 ppg, on the strength of hitting 52.6% of their field goals. 

Including a 17-point loss at Baylor earlier in the season, the Ducks, who may again be without Dillon Brooks, are only 1-3-1 ATS (1-4 SU) the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. 

Oregon coach Dana Altman had this to say about the Utes: "They're a greatly improved team with the two transfers they added at Christmas time. They're deep, they're experienced. I like their team. ... They're well-coached. They don't take bad shots. Their ball movement is really good. They're doing some different things defensively than they have in the past. Utah (against UCLA) ... went right down to the wire. That (final) shot didn't go in. If it goes in, they're probably talked about a little more."

Don't be surprised to see the Utes crack the Top 25 in the next poll, after tonight's win and cover. 

I'm playing on BOISE STATE 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Wolfpack are coming off arguably their worst two-game stretch of the season. Normally a hard-working team, Nevada got "out-toughed," to borrow coach Musselman's words. They played terribly in the second half against lowly Air Force and then followed it up by losing outright - for the second time this season - to Fresno State.  Nevada was outrebounded in those two games by a combined 72-49 margin. The Wolfpack were outscored in the paint by a combined 70-52 score. While this is still a talented, capable and well-coached team, a visit to Boise is NOT the place for them to get back on track. 

Nevada's recent rebounding woes figure to particularly hurt them here. That's because the Broncos are an excellent rebounding team, both on the offensive and defensive glass. In fact, they're the top rebounding team in the conference. 

While they did drop a game against New Mexico recently, the Broncos rarely lose here. In fact, only three teams have beaten them here over the past few seasons - and Nevada isn't one of them. The last two times these teams met here, the Broncos won by 19 and 32 points. 

The Broncos shook off the loss vs. New Mexico by recording a double-digit win at San Jose State. Note that they're 21-9 ATS the last 30 times that they were off a conference win. 

The Broncos are already 7-2 ATS when laying points this season. I believe they're catching the Wolfpack at the right time and I expect another win and cover this evening. *GOW

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Bucks got back on track on Monday, posting a double-digit victory over Houston. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I expect them to deliver a repeat performance this evening.

The 76ers are certainly playing a lot better these days. This is a tough spot for them though, as they're off a win vs. the Clippers last night. They were just in this situation a few days ago - off a win and playing their second game in two days - and they lost by double-digits vs. Atlanta. That 17-point loss dropped them to 1-8 SU, when playing the second of b2b games. 

The Bucks, who are 6-2 SU/ATS when coming off an "upset win," will be looking to settle a score, as the 76ers beat them here less than two weeks ago. I expect them to have their revenge, in "blowout fashion."

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* PERS FAV. With the Cavs off back-to-back losses, the Kings are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. 

The Cavs already beat the Kings by 12, at Sacramento, a couple of weeks ago. In the last meeting here at Cleveland, the Cavs beat the Kings by 20. This one should also turn ugly. 

The Kings also had the misfortune of facing Cleveland off b2b losses the last time the teams met. However, this will mark the first time that the Cavs played a home game, following b2b losses. Needless to say, they're going to be in a foul mood and looking to make amends. 

With tomorrow off and Brooklyn on deck the next day, the Cavs have no reason to look ahead, or to hold back. Including this season's win, the Cavs have defeated the Kings four straight times. Those victories came by an average of 13 points. Fully motivated, I expect the Cavs to exceed that average here. 

I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN 10* BEST BET. I respect the Zips and succesfully backed them in their last game. However, I feel that the value lies the other way tonight. These teams faced each other a few weeks ago, at Akron. The Broncos gave the Zips a pretty good challenge, losing by seven, while listed as double-digit underdogs. They're a MUCH better team at home, too.

In fact, the Broncos arguably have the biggest home/road disparity in the league. They're 0-11 SU in road/neutral games but 6-1 when playing at home. (The lone home loss came by five points, when they were +6 point underdogs.) Meanwhile, Akron is only 2-3 SU in true road games and both victories came by fewer than five points. 

Western Michigan, which has already covered the spread against the likes of UCLA, Washington and Villanova, is 7-2 ATS against teams with a winning record. Akron, on the other hand, is just 1-4 ATS against teams with a losing record. 

The Broncos are 10-3 ATS the past 13 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. That includes a 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU) record their past three times in that role. During the same stretch, Akron was only 2-4 ATS as a road favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

With the Broncos at 14-5 ATS the last 19 (5-1 ATS L6) times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss, I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on MIAMI 10* BEST BET. Admittedly, going against this very talented Golden State team can be a bit hard on the nerves. However, this should be an excellent spot to do so. Off three straight victories, the Heat are arguably playing their best basketball of the season. They already played the Warriors fairly tough at Golden State, losing by 12 as +14.5 point underdogs. They also covered the spread in both meetings against the Warriors last season, losing by six and eight points.

While the Heat had yesterday off, the Warriors are off an afternoon game against the Magic. This will actually mark the first time since before Christmas that they played two games in two days. The last time that they were in that spot was on 12/23, when they failed to cover at Detroit. 

While they covered a larger number yesterday, the Warriors are 0-6 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. With the Heat at 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, including 2-0 SU/ATS this season, I'm grabbing all those generous points.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE Divisional GAME OF MONTH. These teams are neck-and-neck in the Southeast division. Washington is 23-20 overall. Charlotte is 23-21. Both teams have been much better at home. The Hornets are 15-7 at home but 8-14 on the road. Likewise, the Wizards are 18-6 at home but only 5-14 on the road. Not surprisingly, the Wizards finished on top when the teams met at Washington. With this evening's rematch being played at Charlotte, I expect the Hornets to have the advantage. 

Both teams had Sunday off. While the Hornets have tomorrow off, the Wizards play Boston tomorrow, a team which recently defeated them. 

The 109-106 loss at Washington notwithstanding, the Hornets have been outstanding against divisional opponents. They're 6-1 SU/ATS against fellow Southeast opponents. The Hornets won both meetings here last season, taking them by an average of nine points. I expect them to finish on top once again.

I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN 10* PERS FAV. While they've failed to cover a few recently, the Eagles are the currently the class of the Sun Belt. They're a perfect 6-0 in conference action. While they've been involved in a few close ones lately, this should be a good spot for them to break through with a big win. 

The Chanticleers are off a terrible effort last time out, losing by 20 at Georgia State. They're now just 1-6 in true road games. ALL six losses came by double-digits. While Coastal Carolina connects on only 37.2% of its field goals away from home, Georgia State hits 49.4% of its field goals at home, while keeping its guests below the 40% mark. 

With the Eagles outscoring opponents by an average score of 90 to 71.4 at home, the Chanticleers' road woes figure to continue for another day. 

I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND 10* PLAYOFF SIDE OF YEAR. This line could easily be higher. The Patriots were laying a touchdown when they visited Pittsburgh, in October. New England won by 11. True, Big Ben was out for that one. However, the Pats were also laying -7 when they hosted the Steelers last season. New England won by seven. 

The Pats are on a mission right now. They've won each of their last four games by double-digits. Each of their last six victories has come by a minimum of seven points. With the exception of a 2--point win at Arizona, in Week 1 when Brady was out, every New England win has come by a minimum of five points. Thirteen of their last 14 wins have come by at least seven points. 

While the Steelers are certainly deserving of respect, New England has the edge on both sides of the ball. The Pats average 27.9 ppg. The Steelers average 24.8 overall but just 21.2 ppg on the road. The Pats allow 15.6 ppg. The Steelers allow 19.7. 

I like the fact that the Pats had a week off two weeks ago and that they played at home last week. The Steelers, on the other hand, will be playing their second road game in the past two weeks, their fourth game already in 2017. 

The Pats are now 24-4 SU and 18-7-3 ATS their last 28 home games. That includes a 7-3-3 ATS (11-2 SU) record as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Ultimately, I expect homefield advantage and the superior defense to be the difference, the Pats pulling away for the win and cover. 

I'm playing on CLEMSON 10* PERS FAV. Playing in the ACC is tough; the Tigers have just completed a difficult stretch which included Louisville, Virginia, UNC and Notre Dame. While the Hokies aren't slouches either, this is a game that the Tigers know that they need to take advantage of. Clemson is 4-2 ATS its last six when favored at home in the -3.5 to -6 range, 1-0 ATS this season. While the Hokies won last time out, that win came at home, against G-Tech. They're 0-2 SU/ATS off a conference win and only mediocre on the road. The Hokies won a close one at VT last season but the Tigers pounded them by 21 the last meeting here at Clemson. I expect homecourt to prove the difference once again. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Suns are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, for the fifth time this season, the Raptors are going to be highly motivated to get back on track. 

In each of the previous four instances that the Raptors had lost two straight, they responded by winning their next game. They were 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in those games, including 1-0 SU/ATS when playing here at Toronto.

In addition to wanting to "get back on track," the Raptors will be motivated by the fact that Suns upset them, at Phoenix, a few weeks ago. 

A look back at that 12/29 game at Phoenix reveals that the Raptors were off a big game against Golden State the night before and playing their third game in four days. 

The shoe is on the other foot this time though. Not only are the Raptors playing at home, but this time they're the rested team. Phoenix, on the other hand, is off a game at MSG last night, vs. its former coach. In addition to the back-to-back spot, the Suns will be playing their third game in four days. 

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO 10* CONF GAME OF YEAR. While they lost a couple of games here to begin the year, the Lobos have long been known for their homecourt advantage. Off back-to-back impressive road wins, I expect them to carry the positive momentum back to their home floor this evening. 

The Lobos have just accomplished something that no other team has done before, defeating San Diego State, Boise State and Colorado State, all on the road, all in the same season. That's not something thats done by fluke. This is a very capable group of Lobos. They're going to have a ton of confidence entering today's game and will be hungry to keep the roll going. 

The Cowboys are off a road win of their own. However, that was their first road victory in conference play and it came against lowly San Jose State. This will mark the third time that the played two straight true road games. In each of the previous two instances, they lost the second of those b2b game by double-digits. 

While the Lobos are averaging 82 ppg their last five, the Cowboys are allowing 82.4 ppg their last five. 

New Mexico coach Craig Neal knows how important this game is and knows his team needs to take care of business at home. He commented: "Unfortunate that we didn't take care of the two home games. But I think our guys are in a good place." 

I also believe that Neal's crew, which is now 14-7 ATS its last 21 in January, is "in a good place." I expect them to put up a big number here with the Cowboys unable to keep up. *top Mountain West play

I'm playing on NY 10* REVENGE GAME OF YEAR. While the Suns certainly have some capable players, the Knicks have the superior lineup. They're also much better at home than the Suns are on the road. The Knicks are 12-10 SU (14-8 ATS) here at MSG, the Suns are just 6-18 on the road. The Suns consistently give up a lot of points and they allow more than 113 ppg away from Phoenix.

Speaking of bad defense, NY has been at its best, when coming off a sub-par defensive effort. Off a 113-110 loss against the Wizards last time out, note that the Knicks are a lucrative 17-8 ATS the past 25 times that they'd given up 105 or more points in their previous game. 

Looking at the game from a motivation standpoint and the Knicks should be the hungrier team. For starters, they're fighting for their playoff lives in the East, while the Suns are playing out the string in the West. If the season ended today, the Knicks would be out. They know they can't afford to squander a home game against the team with the worst record in the West. 

There's more to it than that though. Current NY coach Jeff Hornacek was fired by the Suns. The Knicks talked about winning his return to Phoenix for him last month but the Suns spoiled those plans by beating them, in OT. After that game, Hornacek commented: "I don't think we came out with the intensity that we needed to play the game."

Expect Hornacek to have his team ready to go. In this case, the 'revenge' factor is real.

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M 8* BLOWOUT. The Aggies, who advanced to the Sweet 16 last year, have admittedly  gotten off to a tough start this season. Thats partly due to a difficult schedule and partly due to losses suffered from last year's team. That said, I still believe that they're a little better than their record indicates and I expect them to be "ready to go" on Saturday afternoon. Off an upset loss last time out and knowing their next two games are on the road, the Aggies know that they can absolutely cannot afford another loss this afternoon. 

Prior to the Arkansas loss, a game they let get away, the Aggies won their previous home game (LSU) by 30 points. This is still a team which gave UCLA all it could handle earlier in the season. 

The Bulldogs have been tough at home but only mediocre on the road. Georgia coach Mark Fox noted this of the Aggies: "... I think they're way better than what their record shows. I do think they have a really good balance between inside and outside scoring ..."

While the visiting team has taken the last couple of meetings, I look for homecourt to be the difference this afternoon. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. The 76ers actually come in hotter. However, I still believe that the Blazers are the superior team and I expect them to show it this evening. 

Fighting for their playoff lives, the Blazers can ill afford a winless road trip. Their recent skid has seen them fall to 9th, a half game back of Denver. Knowing that tomorrow night's game at Boston will be tough, they know that they absolutely need to take care of business at Philly tonight. Note that the Blazers are 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. 

For the past few weeks, there's been quite a lot of talk of a trade between these teams. Fairly rich at center, he 76ers may be interested in dealing Noel, as his contract expires at the end of the season.  McCollum has been a big part of most of those discussions. Look for him and Lillard to lead the way tonight, their edge in the backcourt ultimately making the difference.

I'm playing on AKRON 10* MAC GAME OF YEAR. These teams are both on top of their respective divisions. With a 15-3 overall record, Akron is #1 in the MAC East. At 12-6, Eastern Michigan is tied with NIU and Ball State for the top overall record in the MAC West. Playing at home, where they remain undefeated on the season, I expect the Zips to have the advantage here.

The Zips have yet to lose at home all season long. They dropped their opening road game of the season and have since proceeded to go 15-2, the only losses coming at Gonzaga and Creighton. As of this writing, those teams are a combined 35-1. So, there's no shame in those losses. At home, the Zips are outscoring teams by a commanding 83.8 to 63.7 average margin.

Going back further finds that Akron has actually won 26 straight games here, the third longest active streak in the country.

The Eagles have also been tough to beat on their home floor. However, they're only 4-5 when not playing at home, 3-5 in true road games. 

While the Zips allow only 63.7 ppg on their home floor, the Eagles allow more than 76 ppg on the road. 

While the Zips are 7-1-1 ATS (9-0 SU) the last nine times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -6 range, during the same stretch, the Eagles are 3-11 ATS (2-12 SU) when listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. 

All things considered, the number could easily be higher. Expect the Zips to continue their homecourt dominance. 

I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* BEST BET. The Broncos have been a profitable team when matched up against the Bulldogs in recent seasons. As per usual, Gonzaga has a strong team. The Bulldogs have been playing well, too. That said, I feel that this line will prove to be too high. Last time out, the Bulldogs blew out St. Mary's. As the Gaels have been the primary rival in the WCC for years, that could well be cause for a bit of an emotional letdown.

The Broncos aren't slouches and I expect them to be come ready to play. Santa Clara is off back-to-back road wins. In their last home game, the Broncos crushed Portland by a 70-42 margin. In fact, they've won each of their last four home games by double-digits. 

The Broncos have only lost one game by more than 15 points all season. That came on the road. All three of their home losses came by single-digits. They were +15-point underdogs the last time that they hosted the Bulldogs and lost by only two. I expect the Broncos to give them all they can handle, once again. 

I'm playing on MIAMI 10* GAME OF WEEK. Its been more than a decade since these teams met in the finals now. While neither will be returning anytime soon, both are coming off impresive upset wins. The Mavs knocked off the Bulls last time out, earning their third straight win. The Heat defeated a red hot Houston team. I believe Miami will be the team which "stays hot" here. 

Though they had yesterday off, the Mavs have done alot of travel lately. After playing at Minnesota, they faced Phoenix in Mexico City. Then, back to Dallas, before moving on to Chicago. Note that they've only won b2b road games once all season. Tomorrow, they'll return home to host Utah. 

The Heat, on the other hand, have tomorrow off. and they haven't played a game outside of Miami since 1/13. While "winning streaks" have been few and far between, I believe that they're going to be hungry to follow up the win against Houston with another victory. 

A look at Miami's schedule shows that each of their recent victories has been followed by a road game. So, thats made winning consecutive games tough. They're well aware that tonight's game - against a Dallas team which is an ugly 6-16 on the road - provides them with an excellent opportunity. 

Its been a few weeks since the Heat were favored. The last time that they were laying points was before Christmas for a game against the Lakers. They won and covered. I expect the Heat, who won and covered both meetings against the Mavs last season, to protect their homecourt, taking advantage of a beatable opponent and winning back-to-back games for the first time in 2017. 

I'm playing on IOWA 10* MAIN EVENT. The Terps bring the higher ranking into tonight's game. However, I expect the Hawkeyes to be the team which finishes on top. Its true that they've had trouble away from home. However, the Hawkeyes have continued to play very well here. In their last home game, they knocked off a strong Purdue team. That brought them to a perfect 7-0 their last seven games here. That includes a 78-64 blowout of Iowa State, which happened to be ranked #25 at the time. 

The Terps, who are off a 62-56 win at Illinois, will be playing their second straight on the road. That marks the first time that they will have played consecutive true road games this season. Note that they're just 9-16 ATS their last 25 times that they allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game, 2-3 ATS in that situation so far this season. The last time that they allowed less than 60 points, also against Illinois, they proceeded to lose outright vs. Nebraska in their next game. 

Behind a big effort from senior guard Peter Jok, who took the blame for the NW loss, look for the Hawkeyes, who won by 16 the last time they hosted the Terps, to bounce back and continue their strong play at home for another day. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Kings beat the Pacers in both games last season. That included a 108-97 victory here at Sacramento, almost exactly one year ago. I like their chances again tonight. 

This is the final game of a homestand for the Kings. Knowing that their next eight games will come on the road, including one at Indiana, the Kings should be highly motivated to earn a victory tonight. Note that they're already a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS as home favorites of three or fewer points. 

I like the Pacers as a team and believe that they're probably a little better than their record indicates. That said, they've been terrible away from home all season. Indeed, they're 5-14 (SU and ATS!) on the road and that includes an 0-3 ATS mark as road underdogs of three or fewer points.

With the Pacers also an ugly 2-7 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, I'm backing the Kings. 

 I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA 10* GOW. I won with the Panthers in their last game. That 79-60 blowout of Drake snapped an extended losing streak; I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's contest. Note that they're 29-4 SU the last 33 times that they were off a conference win. 

While the Ramblers have been impressive at home, they've only won two of their six true road games. That includes a 4-point loss at Drake, the worst team in the Missouri Valley Conference. While they were favored for the Drake game, the Ramblers are also already 0-1 SU/ATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points, having lost at Toledo. 

On the other hand, the Panthers are an impressive 24-11 ATS (25-10 SU) the past 35 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points.

The Panthers, who lost earlier this month at Loyola-Chicago, are also 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. They're 39-9 SU the last 48 times that they allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game. I expect them to improve on those stats here, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M 10* ANNIHILATOR. This season's Razorbacks have yet to lose against a team from Texas. However, I expect that to change this evening. Admittedly, the Aggies didn't play too well last time out, turning the ball over far too many times. That was on the road though. Some of you may recall that I also played on the Aggies in their most recent home game, a 30-point destruction of LSU. This is a team, battle-tested against the likes of UCLA, which has been much better on its home floor. Arkanasas, which has long struggled away from home, has still only played three true road games, losing two of them. 

Last season's game at Arkansas was close, the Aggies winning by three. However, the game here at College Station resulted in a 23-point rout, the Aggies moving to 3-0 SU/ATS their last three as a host in this series. 

As of this writing, the O/U line is 146.5, across the board. While that may well change throughout the course of the day, I mention it because the Aggies are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. The LSU beating was the most recent. (During the same stretch, Arkansas was 9-15 ATS and 7-17 SU when playing a road game with an O/U line in the same range.) Ultimately, look for homecourt to again prove the difference, the Aggies earning the win and cover.

I'm playing on G-TOWN 10* PERS FAV. Though they were unable to cover, I believe that the Hoyas will be able to carry some positive momentum from Saturday's victory over UConn. The Hoyas were down big in that one but were able to storm back in the second half. Off that momentum-building comeback, the Hoyas will now get a chance to avenge a recent loss at Providence. While the Friars are an outstanding 11-1 when listed as the home team, they're a dismal 1-6 in seven games away from Providence. They won a neutral site game against Memphis in November and have lost every game away from Providence since. That includes a loss at lowly Depaul, last time out. Payback time. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE 10* MAIN EVENT. As you know the Cavs knocked off the Warriors in the Finals last season. As you may also be aware, the Cavs beat the Warriors on Christmas Day, too. Those results should ensure we see the Warriors' very best game on Monday night. I expect that to be enough for a convincing win and cover. While they're an oustanding 18-3 at Cleveland, the Cavs are a medicore 11-7 on the road. The Warriors, also 18-3 at home, are an excellent 32-17-2 ATS (42-9 SU) the past few seasons, when playing with 'revenge.' Payback time. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. I've successfully played against the Pistons in each of their past three games. In each case, I had reasons why. (Feel free to scroll through my past results/picks to find out what those reasons were.) Tonight, however, I believe the Pistons are going to be extremely motivated to close out their road trip with a victory. This is a trip which started out very well, before turning sour in the second half of the Sacramento game. A win tonight will salvage the trip, or at least keep it from being a complete disaster. 

The Lakers aren't a good team and they currently aren't playing well. They're off three straight losses, all coming by double-digits. The most recent of those came against the Clippers yesterday, putting LA in a back-to-back spot. (The Pistons had yesterday off.)

This is projected to be a fairly high-scoring game and that figures to also favor Detroit. The Pistons don't generally see too many O/U lines this high. However, they are 2-1 ATS on the season when playing a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, 7-3-1 ATS (7-4 SU) their last 11 in that situation. Going back further finds them at a profitable 30-14-1 ATS the last 45 times that they played a game with a total of 210 or greater. With the Lakers now a money-burning 27-46-3 ATS (18-58 SU) the past couple of seasons, with an O/U line of 210 or greater, I'm backing the rested and motivated visitors. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* BEST BET. After winning with them a couple of game ago, in their victory over the Grizzlies, I successfully played against the Thunder in their last game, a double-digit loss at Minnesota. I feel that this will be another good spot to go against them. 

I won with the Kings two games ago, as they delivered an inspired comeback win against the Pistons. They were unable to follow that up with another victory but thats not surprising, given that they were up against the Cavs. This year's Thunder are beatable (on the road) though. In fact, the Kings already hammered them here (116-101) earlier this season. Including that result, OKC is just 9-11 on the road, getting outscored by an average margin of 107.3 to 102.6. (The Kings score more points than that here at home, while allowing less.)

Both teams had yesterday off. The Thunder have a showdown vs. the Clippers on deck tomorrow though, followed by a date with Golden State, while the Kings have the next two days off. 

The Kings have been at their best off a big loss this season, going 8-3 ATS (7-4 SU) when off a double-digit loss. I like their chances of scoring the upset. 

I'm playing on KC 10* GAME OF WEEK. With the pointspread essentially a non-factor, I'm backing the rested home team. While the Steelers are red hot, the same is true of the Chiefs. The Steelers won big when these teams met earlier. That was at Pittsburgh though. The Chiefs, 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they played with 'revenge,' earned the right to host Sunday's rematch. They won 23-13 when these teams played here last season. 

Reid has been money over the years, when given extra time to prepare. The Chiefs are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three, with two or more week's worth of rest. Off this season's bye, the Chiefs went into Oakland and pounded the Raiders by a 26-10 score. He'll have the Chiefs better prepared to deal with Bell than they were for the first game. Having linebacker Justin Houston back - he wasn't around for the first meeting - will help. 

The Steelers were solid on the road, going 5-3. They outscored teams by a modest 21.6 to 19.6 margin in those games. The Chiefs were better (6-2) at home though. In those games, they outscored teams by a much greater 23.9 to 15.7 average margin. As you can see with less than 16 ppg allowed, the KC defense has been tough to score against here. I expect that to again be the case. 

To be sure, Bell and Brown give Rothlisberger a pair of deadly weapons to work with. Big Ben is a bit banged-up here though and the Chiefs' trio of Ware, Hill and Kelce figure to be every bit as dangerous. In the end, I expect homefield advantage combined with that extra week of rest to make the difference. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA 8* ANNIHIALTOR. The Panthers are still seeking their first conference win and the Bulldogs should provide the perfect opportunity. Its true that Drake has played better since Jeff Rutter (a former UNI assistant) took over as coach. However, they're far from being a strong team. All their "success" has come at home too, as the Bulldogs are 0-8 when playing away from home. They've lost their two 2017 road games by 39 combined points. The Panthers are 23-4 SU (17-5 ATS in lined games) their last 27 against sub-500 teams. They've dominated Drake for years and they won last year's two games by 49 combined points, including a 77-44 destruction here at NIU. Look for them to "get healthy" with another double-digit win this afternoon. 

I’m playing on WASHINGTON. The 76ers earned a rare win last night. Don't expect it to happen again. The Wizards, who had the past two nights off, come in with a score to settle. Thats because the 76ers beat them earlier. Thats going to ensure that they don't overlook them and it should help in "keeping the pedal to the metal" the entire way. Note that the Wizards a profitable 14-7 ATS when playing with 'revenge.' Off a 117-108 loss at Boston on Wednesday, its also worth noting that the Wizards are 15-9 SU/ATS the last 24 times that they were off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points. Prior to that loss, they'd covered three straight. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to bounce back with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* BEST BET. While the Spurs will likely have quite a few fans cheering for them, I believe that that the Suns already having played here gives them a considerable advantage. The Spurs had to travel here and adjust. The Suns have already got a game under their belts down here, a chance to adjust to the altitude and become familiar with the nets. I don't mind that they lost (I won with the Over) as it should add to their hunger here; they'd like to salvage a split out of the trip. Off a 40-point win, the Spurs, who had last year's trip here "smoked out," could easily get caught looking past the Suns, a team which they've already beaten them twice by double-diigits. That figures to prove costly, as no team has beaten the Suns by more than 11 yet in 2017. Given the situation, I feel the number is generously high and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* MAIN EVENT. While they do have to travel across the country, the Seahawks are a battle-tested playoff machine which is peaking at the right time. They've been in this situation before and they'll be ready. Wilson does it all. He's calm and cool under pressure and he makes plays with both his arm and his feet. The running game got really going last week and the defense ranks among the best in the league.

While the Hawks thrived as underdogs this season, the Falcons were just 3-5 ATS at home.  Both teams benefitted from the fact that they were in divisions where the other teams had down years. While the Hawks had an impressive win at New England, Atlanta didn't exactly dominate the other playoff teams it faced. They did beat the Raiders by seven early in the season, before Oakland really got rolling. However, they lost against the Chiefs and only beat the Packers by a point. They were fortunate to play all three of those games here. 

You may recall that these teams also played a very close one against each other (at Seattle) earlier in the season. The Seahawks won that 10/16 game by a 26-24 margin. Speaking of close games, three of the Hawks' five losses were by six or fewer points. This one could also easily come down to the wire. In my opinion, getting more than a field goal with this Seahawk team is offering us excellent value. 

I'm playing on VT 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Irish have a strong team this season and are playing well. They're worthy of their top 25 ranking and already have some impressive road wins under their belt. That said, this is a very tough spot, as they'll be playing their second ACC tough road game in three days.

That may not sound like much but its a situation that will only happen to three other teams in the ACC this season. In addition to ND, only Duke, UNC and Louisville will have to play two ACC road games with a day in between this reg. season. Don't expect the Hokies to show them any sympathy. VT was one of three teams to have to play two ACC road games in 3 days last season; the Hokies lost both games. 

The Hokies know this is a great opportunity. They're undefeated on this floor including a double-digit win over Duke. True, the Blue Devils were without Allen for that one. Stil, this is a VT team which plays with confidence on its home floor. Off a double-digit win against Syracuse here last time out, they've now won 15 straight here.

The Hokies gave the Irish all they could handle at ND last year, losing by two as double-digit underdogs. With the schedule and venue now in their favor, I expect them to return the favor, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on UTAH 10* MAIN EVENT. I don't mean to keep picking on the Pistons, but this is another tough spot for them. The loss at Sacramento was of the "deflating" variety, as they coughed up a big second half lead against one of the weaker teams in the West. Last night, they got blown out by the best offensive team in the league. Now, playing the second of b2b games and their third game in four days, the Pistons have to take on the league's stingiest team.

The Jazz allow just 94.9 points per game. Next best is San Antonio and the Spurs allow 97.9. At home, the Jazz allow a mere 93 points per game. Opposing teams shoot just 41.9% from the field here. By comparison, the Pistons allow 103.8 ppg on the road, allowing teams to hit 46.9% from the field. 

Last night's game was costly, in that Pope went down to injury. As of this writing, he's listed as questionable. He did fly to Utah with the team, where he'll have an MRI today. I'm guessing he doesn't play though, given that he looked to be in considerable pain. He gives them a ton of minutes and figures to be missed. Either way, the Pistons are going to have some trouble. 

The Pistons are just 2-5 SU/ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games. They've been in that situation twice (vs. Indiana on 12/17 and at Charlotte on 12/7) since the start of December and lost by double-digits each time. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE 10* GAME OF MONTH. The Warriors haven't covered for some time but I feel this will be a great spot for them to explode with a lopsided win. I successfully played against the Pistons in their last game, backing the Kings on Tuesday. That one didn't look good at all, as the Pistons were up double-digits in the second half. In fact, they stretched the lead all the way to 18 at one point. However, the Kings made a run and the Pistons couldn't answer.

As The Detroit News called it, that was a "devastating loss." The Pistons had won back-to-back games and a victory would have had them riding a 3-game winning streak and bringing some confidence into tonight's game. That didn't happen though and I expect Tuesday's second half meltdown to have a negative effect on them tonight.

Though they haven't covered, the Warriors have still won their last two games by double-digits. While the Pistons are now 8-13 (SU and ATS) on the road, the Warriors are 17-3 here at home. They're outscoring teams by an average of 14.4 points here. Note that they beat the Pistons by 14 here last season. 

The Warriors had yesterday off and they haven't had to play back-to-back games (two games in two days) since before Christmas. After tonight's game, they get a few days off. In other words, there's no reason to hold back or save themselves.

The Warriors are 72-52-4 ATS when off a double-digit win the past 2+ seasons, 19-1 SU their last 20. I expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way here. 

I'm playing on MIDDLE TENN. STATE 10* PERS FAV. This is a big game between the last two with undefeated records in C-USA. The Thundering Herd have had this one circled ever since the Blue Raiders knocked them out of the conference tournament last season. As you may recall, the Raiders would go on to the NCAA Tournament, where they'd knock off Michigan State, a stunning #15 vs. #2 seed upset.

Sometimes you have to be careful what you wish for though. Wanting to beat the Raiders and actually doing so are two different matters. While last year's tourney loss was at a neutral site, the Herd are 0-2 SU/ATS their last two visits here, losing by an average of 24 points. Middle Tennessee State outscored them by a combined 173-125 margin. Including those results, the Raiders are a dominating 72-13 here since the 2011-12 season.

Sure, Marshall is expected to get Terrence Thompson back, after he missed a dozen games or so. He's likely to be eased in though. Marshall's coach Dan D'Antoni noted: "If we win, it's a big step up. If we lose, they're going to make us better." Given that the only road wins Marhall has are at FAU and FIU, I expect it to be the latter. Raiders with a statement win. 

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. The Tigers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Tigers' football team pounded the Aggies here a little less than two months ago, winning by 15 points. I expect the Aggies' basketball team to avenge that 11/24 loss in a big way Wednesday, winning by at least as big a margin. 

To say this is is a "must win" game for the Aggies, who are 0-3 in SEC play, is an understatement. Remember, this is a team which went to the Sweet 16 last season, its 13th appearance at the Big Dance. They're likely going to need 21 wins to get in there this season and there are only 16 games + the SEC Tournament remaining. Basically, if they don't win this game, they'd need to score an upset against either WVU or Kentucky. Needless to say, taking care of business here should be a much easier task. 

The Tigers are off a 17-point loss vs. Mississippi State last time out, their third loss in four games. Those three losses came by an average of greater than 19 points. 

While the Aggies have several losses, they've been close to winning some big games. They stayed within four points of both ranked USC and Arizona. When the Aggies have won, its mostly been by a comfortable margin; three of their last four victories have been by a minimum of 12 points. They're stepping down in class here, while the Tigers are stepping up in class. 

The Aggies were laying -7.5 when hosting the Tigers last January. They won by 14. That brought them to 3-0 SU/ATS their last three as a host of the Tigers and 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven. Badly in need of a big win, I'm expecting another double-digit margin.

I'm playing on OKC 10* MAIN EVENT. The Thunder will have payback on their minds as the Grizzllies embarrassed them, at Memphis, less than two weeks ago. The Grizzlies won that 12/29 game by 34 points. While the Thunder are below .500 on the road, they're 14-6 here at home. The loss at Memphis was the start of a stretch which saw the Thunder lose four of five. However,  off back-to-back double-digit blowout wins, they're healthy now and have found their groove. They beat the Grizzlies by 18 here last January and by 16 the previous meeting. Revenge will be even sweeter, in front of the national TV audience.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While the Rockets are obviously red hot, I feel that this will be a good spot to go against them. I backed  the Wolves in their last game, a 9-point win on Monday and liked what I saw from them. Off that momentum-building win, unlike their guests, the Wolves had yesterday off. Meanwhile, Houston was busy beating Charlotte. Its true that the Rockets have fared quite well when playing the second of b2b games. However, this will also be their third game in four nights and their fifth game in the past seven days. I could see it finally catching up to them here. The Wolves already gave the Rockets all they could handle here a month ago, losing by just two points. Like now, the Rockets were rolling at the time and also coming off a win the previous night. Look for the Wolves to give them all they can handle once again, with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE 10* ANNIHILATOR. I successfully backed the Aztecs on Christmas Day, in the finals of the Diamond Head Classic tournament in Hawaii. That trip resulted in a bit of a hangover, as they came back and home and were upset by the Lobos on New Year's Day. Not all that shocking a loss, given the travel and holidays. Next, the Aztecs had to play back-to-back road games. They battled in each but ended up coming up short in both of them. Thats going to have them in a foul mood tonight; they'll be looking to take out their anger on somebody and the Spartans, which lost their last two road games by 25 and 19 points, should be the perfect team to do that against. Note that the Aztecs won by 32 points earlier this season, after losing three straight. Including that victory, they're 4-2-1 ATS (6-1 SU) the last seven times that they were off three consecutive pointspread defeats, 29-17-4 ATS their last 50. The Aztecs won last season's meetings by 15 and 22 points. I'm expecting another blowout.

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* PERS FAV. Off three straight losses, knowing they've got three fairly difficult games (Cleveland, OKC, Indiana) on deck, followed by a tough road trip, one which will include a game against these same Pistons, the Kings are going to be very hungry to take care of business this evening. Note that they're 4-1 ATS off three consecutive losses and 7-3 ATS off a double-digit loss. While the Pistons are 1-3 ATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points, the Kings are 2-0 ATS as home favorites of three or less. With the Pistons also at 0-3 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range, I'm backing the home team. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA 10* MAIN EVENT. Last year, I took the points with Clemson. The Tigers lost but covered. This year, I'm laying the points with Alabama. Why the change?

While this year's Tigers are off a very impressive win over Ohio State and off another outstanding season, they're no longer undefeated. Last year, they came in with an undefeated record and the swagger/confidence that comes with it. This year's team knows what its like to lose, as it gave up 43 points in a loss against Pittsburgh. (The Panthers were just one of four teams which scored 34 or more against them.)

To their credit, the Tigers rebounded nicely. Still, in the back of their minds, they know that even last year's undefeated team couldn't beat Alabama. Note that last year's Clemson team entere the game against Alabama averageing slightly more yards per game, while also allowing slightly less, than this year's team.

Meanwhile, the Tide are arguably better than ever. Last year's Alabama team had a loss on its resumé. This year's team has crushed every opponent for months. This year's team averages more yards on offense (and more points per game) than last year's team had entering the Clemson game, while also allowing fewer yards and fewer points.

In addition to the Pitt loss, Clemson got seriously tested by Auburn and Florida State as well as both NC State and Troy. The Tigers couldn't beat any of those teams by more than a touchdown. On the other hand, no team has stayed within single digits of the Tide since way back in September. The Tide were 6-1 ATS against teams with a winning record this season; the Tigers were 5-5 ATS.

While the move to release Kiffin was indeed a little controversial, I believe it shows just how serious Saban is about this one. I expect his team to get the message and when the smoke clears, I expect them to deliver another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GAME OF WEEK. Off four straight losses, the T-Wolves could really use a big win. Tonight should be the perfect spot to get one. While the T-Wolves admittedly haven't been great at home, they at least do outscore teams by a slight margin here. The Mavericks, on the other hand, get outscored by a 102.7 to 94.6 margin on the road, where they're just 4-15. While Dallas scores 94.6 ppg on the road, Minnesota scores 104.3 ppg here at home. 

In recent seasons, the Mavs have had their way with the T-Wolves. This year's Dallas team isn't as strong as past teams though while the talented young T-Wolves' players are slowly getting better. Knowing that they'll face the Mavs again at Dallas, in less than a week, the T-Wolves should be particularly anxious to "hold serve" at home and to finally get a win against a team which has had their number. Off a cover against the Jazz on Saturday, the T-Wolves are 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they'd lost three or more (SU games) in a row. I expect them to improve on those stats here, the Mavs falling to 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) after scoring 85 or fewer points in their previous game. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA STATE 10* PERS FAV. While they didn't cover, I really like the way that the Panthers won their last game. Down seven points late, in danger of losing three in a row, playing without freshman guard D'Marcus Simonds for the third consecutive game, and also with Jeremy Hollowell and Willie Clayton having both fouled out, the Panthers closed the game on an 8-0 run to win by a point. While they may again be without Simonds, currently questionable as of this writing, now the Panthers know that they can win without him. Thats the type of comeback victory that they can build positive momentum from. 

While the Panthers are off a momentum-building win, the Trojans are off back-to-back close (deflating) road losses. They haven't played a game on their home floor in ages, as their last six have all been on the road, or a neutral site. They finally play at home next game, but look for the road-weariness to hit them here. The home team won both meetings last season and homecourt means a lot to both teams again this year. Troy is 3-7 away from home, Georgia State is 5-1 at home. The Trojans score 72.5 on the road while the Panthers score 85.3 at home. I'm laying the small number. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA 10* BEST BET. These teams have battled each other for the top spot in the conference in recent seasons. Both lost some key personnel from last year's teams. Admittedly, the Shockers have adjusted much better than the Panthers, at least thus far. Despite losing their three top scorers from last season, the Shockers are undefeated in conference action and 13-3 overall. While the Panthers overall record is indeed pretty poor, keep in mind that they've faced the likes of UNC, Iowa and Xavier (twice). They've beaten teams like Oklahoma and Arizona State and no team has beaten them by more than four points on this floor. They're only allowing 57.4 ppg here. While the Shockers are off a couple of blowout wins, those both came at home and both against weaker teams. They won their last road game by eight. The last two meetings were both decided by five points or less. Don't be surprised when this one also proves closer than most will be expecting.

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* GAME OF MONTH. The Sunday night loss against the Packers was a real killer for the Lions. They gave it a good effort and left it all out on the field, but it wasn't enough. As a result, instead of staying right where they were and hosting the Giants, they now have to travel across the entire country, playing on a short week, and facing a talented playoff-tested team, at arguably the toughest venue in the league. Note that this will be the Lions' third road game in their past four games. The Hawks, on the other hand, haven't left the Pacific time zone for nearly a month. 

While the Lions are below .500 on the road, the Hawks were 7-1 at home this season, outscoring teams by an average 28.4 to 17 margin in games here. 

I believe that Seattle is better on both sides of the ball. The Seattle defense, in particular, has been much better than the Detroit defense recently. While the Hawks are allowing an average of 268.7 yards their past three games, the Lions are allowing an average of 374.3 their last three. Hawks roll. 

I'm playing on UAB 10* GAME OF WEEK. Admittedly, losing Nick Norton back in November was a blow. However, these Blazers are still a formidable team. A look at the Blazers' schedule shows that the've alternated wins and losses all season long. Every win has been followed by a loss. Every loss has been followed by a win. Much of that has been due to circumstance though, as the Blazers have had to play against team like Kansas and St. Mary's after a win, as well as at venues like Memphis, Texas and Middle Tennessee State. Rice can also be pretty tough to beat at home. However, I believe that the battle-tested Blazers will be up for the challenge. This is a team that still believes its the best in the conference. Having already lost at Middle Tennessee State on this trip, followed by a win at North Texas, the Blazers badly want to assert themselves - and to finally win two in a row - with a victory here. 

The Owls are just 4-7-1 ATS when laying points the past 2+ seasons and that includes an 0-1 ATS mark when listed as home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. While the Blazers, who were 14-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, when facing a team witha winning record through at least 15 games of the season, have had a chance to bounce back from their loss to the Blue Raiders, the Owls have not. UAB comes off a potentially momentum-building 2-point win while Rice comes off a potentially deflating 3-point loss. Note that the Owls, who lost that one by an 80-77 score, are just 6-10 ATS their last 16 lined games, after allowing 80 or more points. UAB has won five of the past six meetings, including a 12-point win last January. With both teams off very close games, I could see this one also coming down to the wife and am taking the points. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. This is a tough spot for the Knicks. Last night, they gave everything they had in their game at Milwaukee. To their credit, they fought back, erased a huge second half deficit and won the game. However, they used a ton of energy to do so. Keep in mind that they've still lost six of seven. Now, off that extremely hard-fought battle and playing their sixth game in the past nine days, they'll take on a rested and rejuvenated Pacers team which is enjoying its best stretch of the season. Note that NY is 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. The Knicks lost those six games by 79 combined points, an average loss of more than 13 points. Five of the six losses came by a minimum of seven points. 

Finally starting to play up their potential, the Pacers have won four straight, covering all in all four of those. Three of those four games came here at Indiana and all three resulted in double-digit victories. While the Knicks beat them at MSG just before Christmas, the Pacers have dominated them here at Indiana in recent seasons. The most recent meeting here resulted in a 12-point Pacer win, last April. With the schedule firmy in their favor, I expect them revenge-minded Pacers to keep rolling for another day. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* ANNIHILATOR. I admit that I felt a little fortunate to win with the Raiders when they beat the Texans on MNF, earlier in the season. You may recall that one. Derek Carr led the Raiders, who were laying -6.5, to a fourth quarter comeback and they won by seven. While the line would have been adjusted, its still likely that I wouldn't have backed the Raiders if they didn't have Carr in that game. Its also likely that they wouldn't have won. As you likely know, the Raiders won't have Carr for this one. While the Texans have QB issues of their own, they've gotten used to winning "in spite of" their QB while the Raiders are accustomed to winning "because of" theirs.  I believe that Carr's loss is going to be too much to overcome.

The earlier meeting was played in adverse conditions, in front of a hostile and pro-Raider crowd, at Mexico City. Including that loss, the Texans were just 2-6 away from home. However, they were a dominant 7-1 here at Houston, the best home record in the entire AFC. They got embarrassed (30-0!) in the Wildcard round here last season and I believe that they're going to be on a mission to erase the bad taste left in their mouths from that game. While the Texans were underdogs for the Mexico City game, they were favored by a field goal against the Raiders in the previous meeting, a 30-14 Texans' victory. I expect the Texans, who are a profitable 14-5-1 ATS (18-2 SU!) the last 20 times that they were laying points, to pull away for another win and cover here. 

I'm playing on SETON HALL 8* BREAKFAST CLUB. The Pirates have been winning but not covering. They're 11-3 in the standings by 4-8 at the betting window. This should be a good spot to pick up a win in both those columns. A look at the first part of this season's schedule shows that the Pirates never had much of a chance to catch their breath in 2016. Since their opening game on 11/11, they didn't have a break of more than four nights until after their 12/17 win against Delaware. After getting five nights off, they responded with a win and cover vs. Rutgers. They came out of the Christmas Break (still only with four nights off) and lost at Creighton - no shame in that - before beating Marquette by three last time out, failing to cover (against the closing line) by half a point.

While they may not have beaten the closing number, the Pirates figure to gain some positive momentum from the win over Marquette. Having not played since New Year's Day, they've finally got some proper time off. Note that with the Rutgers win, they're 6-1 ATS and 7-1 SU the last eight times that they played with five or six day's rest.

While the Pirates bring some positive momentun, the Blue Demons are going the other way. They've lost four straight are winless on the road. While the Blue Demons are averaging 62 ppg on the road, the Pirates are outscoring teams by a 81.7 to 65.7 margin here at home. With three straight road games on deck, I expect them be all business here. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The Kings are cathing the Clippers at the right time. Not only is Griffin out, but Paul is also expected to miss Friday's game. He's currently listed as doubtful. Even if he were to play, however, I like the Kings' chances tonight. The Kings looked fairly impressive in winning at Denver in their first 2017 game but couldn't follow it up with another victory, when playing the second of b2b games. They had yesterday off though and they're coming in looking to settle a score with an instate "rival" which has dominated them here in recent seasons. The Kings, 8-5 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game, are 3-1 ATS against divisional opponents thus far while the Clippers are just 2-3 ATS. I'm backing the home team. 

I'm playing on VALPARAISO 10* MAIN EVENT. This is a huge game in the Horizon. While I repect Oakland, I expect homecourt to prove the difference this evening. The Crusaders, 7-1 at home this season, were the regular season champs last season, winning 25 games. With a total in the mid-high 140s, note that the Crusaders are a highly profitable 40-22 ATS over the years, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s. That includes a 3-0 SU/ATS mark when playing a home game with O/U line in the 145.5 to 149 range. During that stretch, on the other hand, the Golden Grizzlies are just 0-3 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 145.5 to 149 range. The women's Grizzlies absolutely destroyed the women's Crusaders team on New Year's Eve. Look for the men to exact some revenge here, showing that they're still the team to beat in the Horizon. At least, for now. 

I'm playing on GREEN BAY 10* HC GAME OF YEAR. If you're looking for an "exciting" Friday game in the Horizon, you'd probably be better served checking out Oakland/Valparaiso. (They're currently the top two teams in the conference and they'll be going head-to-head at 9 ET on ESPN2.) Thats because I expect this one to be pretty lopsided. 

While the Valparaiso/Oakland game might be stealing the spotlight, its the Phoenix who lead the Horizon League in scoring. They're averaging a whopping 80.8 ppg. They've won four in a row and have scored 90 or more in three of those. They're going to come in full of confidence and knowing that they'll be gaining a game against one of the top two teams in the conference, provided they take care of business tonight. 

While the Phoenix are averaging over 80 ppg and over 90 ppg on their home floor, the Panthers are averaging a paltry 65.3 overall and just 64 away from home. Given their offensive shortcomings, its not all that surprising to learn that the Panthers are an ugly 5-12 ATS (4-13 SU) their last 17 against teams which score more than 77 ppg. 

The Panthers are playing their third straight road game, the first time that they opened Horizon League play with three straight on the road since the 2000-2001 season. Now 1-7 on the road, they've only played four games in their own building. Competing hard but coming up short in the first two games figures to take a toll on them here. The Panthers could have easily beaten Youngstown State but ended up blowing it and losing 88-87, in OT. They gave up a game-tying 3-pointer with 0.2 seconds left in that one. Next, they fought back late at Cleveland State, only to come up short. Now losers of six straight, its going to be hard for them to have much confidence. 

While the Panthers tested them last season, the Phoeix have still dominated them in recent seasons. I expect them to put up a big number again tonight, and for the Panthers to be unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO 10* BEST BET. While the Magic had last night off, the Rockets were involved in a hard-fought battle against the Thunder, a 118-116 thriller. Harden and Westbrook are battling for the MVP and the two battled each other pretty hard last night. Harden, one of four Rockets to play more than 30 minutes, was on the flloor for 38 minutes.

While the Rockets have proven that they can win when playing their second game in two nights, not all b2b spots are equal and last night's game (an MVP showdown, which came down the wire, on National TV) was the type of game that it can be easy to have a bit of an emotional letdown from. Also, off that win and with Toronto on deck, they could easily look past lowly Orlando. Either way, I expect the rested Magic to be ready for them. 

The Magic played the Rockets tough in both games last season, covering in each of them. They lost by just five at Houston (as +9 point underdogs) and they won 104-101 in the game here at Orlando. Harden got his points (31) but the Magic limited his time spent on the free throw line and played a solid team game themselves. Including those results, Orlando is actually 16-8-1 ATS its last 25 against teams from the Southwest. Knowing that they hit the road for six games after this, the Magic should be highly motivated to take care of business at home before they go. Like last year, I expect them to give the Rockets all they can handle again here, with a great shot at another outright win. 

I'm playing on SF 10* MAIN EVENT. I successfully played against the Dons on Christmas Day. Playing in the finals of the Diamond Head Classic, they lost against San Diego State. That trip took a bit of a toll, as they have failed to cover in either game since. Still, they did play very well even to get to the finals of that tournament as they had to beat Utah in the opening round to do so. Not bad considering that the Utes haven't lost a game since (most recently crushing Colorado on 1/1) and that they've only lost two other games (at Xavier and vs. Butler) all season. After beating the Utes, the Dons beat a limited a half decent Illinois State squad to just 58 points. The Dons have only lost four times overall on the season and none of those losses came by more than 14 points. For last season's meeting here, Gonzaga was laying -13.5 points and won by just eight; three of the last four meetings have been decided by 11 or less. Including last year's non-cover here, Gonzaga is just 2-6 ATS the last eight times it was laying more than a dozen points on the road. While I respect the Bulldogs, I believe that this line will again prove to be too high.

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* VIOLATOR. Off three straight impressive wins, the Pacers are finally starting to play up to their potential. That's going to spell trouble for a Nets team which has lost three straight and eight of nine. While the Nets last two losses have both come by double-digits, the Pacers' last two games here both results in double-digit wins. While the Nets won the game at Brooklyn, the Pacers won by 21 when the teams met here earlier. The Nets haven't gotten any better and the Pacers are stronger now than they were then. I'm expecting another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played against the Hornets in their last game. That was on the road though and it was against a revenge-minded Bulls team which I thought was going to be desperate for a win. The shoe's on the other foot this time though. This time, the Hornets are at home. This time, off b2b losses and knowing that they've got a 5-game road trip on deck after this, one which includes stops at San Antonio, Houston, Detroit and Boston, the Hornets know that they need to take care of business tonight, or they risk getting off to a potentially ugly start to 2017. 

While the Thunder get outscored by a 107.2 to 101.9 margin on the road, the Hornets outscore teams by a 104.3 to 101.4 margin here at home. They're a modest 3-2 ATS as home underdogs of three or fewer points this season, 13-10 ATS in that role, the past 2+ seasons. Those number sound a whole lot better when compared to OKC's 0-4 ATS mark as a road underdog of three or fewer points. In fact, thats been an ugly role for the Thunder, even prior to Durant's departure. They're just 3-15 SU/ATS their last 18 as road underdogs of three or less. 

The Hornets weren't able to beat the Thunder in recent seasons but I believe they're ready to take the next step and I look for them do so tonight, covering the small nubmer along the way.

I'm playing on VANDERBILT 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Commodores have dominated the Tigers for ears. They won last season's games by 47 combined points. I expect them to continue that domination this evening. The Tigers suffered their third loss of the season last time out. To their credit, they've done a good job at bouncing back from the previous two. However, this latest loss was different. First of all, it came in conference play - they're just 8-19 SU off a conf. loss the past 2+ seasons. Worse, it came in a game where they held a 12-point second half lead, eventually losing by 12. The Tigers had been rolling before that second half meltdown, arguably riding as high as they had at any point since the last time (2003) they went to the NCAA Tournament. To lose in that manner, in the first game back from Christmas, figures to be a tough pill to swallow, going into the new year. Also, Vanderbilt is much better than either of the two teams (USC Upstate and Coastal Carolina) that Auburn previously bounced back from losses against. The Commodores followed up a cover at Dayton with a win/cover at LSU. Back home, where they've won three straight and five of six, I expect them to continue their positive momentum and their dominance in this series.

I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* PERS FAV. The Suns aren't favored too often but I feel they could easily be laying a bigger number tonight. The Heat, who have lost five straight and eight of nine, are a mess right now. They've been dealing with major injury issuses all season but are also going to be without Whiteside tonight, a major blow. Winslow is also out. Dragic is questionabe while Waiters doubtful, Bosh and McRoberts remain out. Sure, the Suns played last night, a blowout loss at LA. However, they had the previous couple of days off. So, its not that gruelling a spot. Also, the last time they were in a back-to-back spot, they won outright vs. a very good Toronto team. Including that result, they're 9-5-1 ATS when off a double-digit loss. Look for homecourt and superior health to be the difference in this one, the Suns bouncing back with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played on the Jayhawks a couple of weeks ago, in their 89-71 win over Davidson. Since that time, they won at UNLV and TCU but failed to cover at either venue. I felt that the Jayhawks, who are as loaded as ever, were going to be a little extra motivated for the Davidson game. Back home now, facing their instate "rival," and having allowed 80 or more points for just the second time this season, the Jayhawks should again look to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. Not only have the Jayhawks dominated the Wildcats for years, but they're also 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last 2+ seasons, after allowing 80 or more points, going a lucrative 49-24 ATS in that situation over the years. While the Wildcats have an impressive record, they have yet to face a team anything like the one they'll see here. Note that the Wildcats, who are off a win vs. Texas, are just 4-10 SU/ATS the last 14 times that they were off a conference victory. Kansas was laying -12.5 points for the last meeting and won by a 22-point margin. I expect another one-sided result, the Jayhawks pulling away and improving to 13-7 ATS (19-1 SU) the last 20 times that they were a host in the series. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* MAIN EVENT. Recent results are providing us with excellent value on what should be a highly motivated Bulls team. The Bulls have thrived in home games hovering around the pick'em range. Over the past couple of seasons, they're 9-4 ATS (2-0 ATS this season) as a home underdog, or pick'em, of three points or less. During that stretch, they're also 12-6 ATS (3-1 this season) as home favorites of three or fewer points. Charlotte is 8-8 on the road, the Bulls are 10-7 at home. The Bulls know that they've got the Cavs next and that three of their next five are on the road, with the two home games both coming against quality (Toronto and OKC) teams. In other words, they need to stop the bleeding now. Added motivation provided by the fact that the Hornets beat them by double-digits at Charlotte, just over a week ago. New year = Payback time. 

I'm playing on JAMES MADISON 10* BEST BET. The Tigers check in with the better record but the Dukes are the team which enters 2017 with some positive momentum. James Madison closed out 2016 with back-to-back victories, including a double-digit blowout of Drexel on New Year's Eve. This is a team which is finally starting to come together and they'll be highly motivated to keep the roll going here. The Tigers closed 2016 with a blowout loss. They're 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season, losing both games outright. That brings them to 7-13 ATS their last 20 when laying points. During that stretch, the Tigers are also just 7-12 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s, 1-3 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range. During that span, the Dukes are 11-7 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s, 2-1 ATS when playing at home with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range.JMU won by 14 in last season's meeting here, while losing by two at Towson. I'm taking the points.

I'm playing on WMU 10* BOWL GAME OF YEAR. Getting more than a touchdown at the betting window, I don't feel that the Broncos are getting enough respect. Sure, the schedule was pretty soft. However, this is still a team with a perfect 13-0 record. Winning breeds confidence and this team has plenty of it. Just like a fighter who has never tasted defeat, a team which has never lost gets a feeling of invincibility and that tends to make them even better. Eleven of the Bronco wins came by double-digits.

While Wisconsin will admittedly be the strongest team which they have faced, its worth mentioning that the Broncos did beat a couple of Big-Ten teams (Northwestern and Illinois) along the way. Overall, the Broncos were 4-0 SU/ATS in non-conference games. They're now 11-3 ATS against non-conf. opposition the past few seasons. 

As per usual, the Badgers are a tough physical team. The Broncos know that but they're sick of hearing everyone say that Wisconsin is going to run all over them. WMU senior defensive end Keion Adams had this to say: "We're quick, we're smart. Wisconsin, they haven't necessarily seen a defense like us. Yeah, we're smaller, but at the same time we're fast. So I feel like our 'how' as far as 11 hats to the ball, if they came with energy, came with passion, that'll be the difference-maker."

The Badgers lost their last game, their third defeat on the season. They also had another four games where they won by eight or fewer points. So, thats seven different teams, out of 13 faced, which they've failed to beat my more than eight points. While they weren't in that role often this season, the Broncos are 11-3 ATS as underdogs the past few seasons. I expect the Broncos, who average 43.5 ppg and 496.7 ypg, to give the Badgers all they can handle with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on CAL 10* PERS FAV. I believe that the Sun Devils are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After 27 straight wins here, the Bears have dropped back-to-back games. Don't expect it to happen a third time. Those last two losses both came against ranked teams and the Sun Devils represent a significant step down in class.  ASU does have a couple of fairly impressive wins under its belt already, San Diego State earlier and Stanford last time out. The Sun Devils also already have six losses though. All six came by a minimum of eight points and five came by double-digits. While they do deserve some credit for the win at Stanford, they'll be playing the second of b2b road games here, a stretch which will see them play five of their first seven Pac-12 games on the road, and it figures to catch up with them here. With road games at UCLA and USC on deck, the Bears know they can ill afford to take the Sun Devils lightly. They won't. Cal bounces back big. 

I'm playing on STANFORD 10* BB. Going against the Cats cost me a couple of times in December but that won't stop me from doing so here, as I believe this is an excellent spot for Stanford. The fact that the Cardinal have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, combined with Arizona's recent run of success, has driven the line up a little higher than it could have been otherwise. The only previous time that the Cardinal failed to cover three straight, they got an extra generous line as an underdog against Seton Hall. They ended up winning outright by double-digits. The Cardinal, 34-10 their last 44 home games, have still only lost two games here this season and only one of those (St. Mary's) came by more than five points. Both teams had New Year's Eve off, after they each played 12/30. That scheduling situation figures to be a little more familar to the Cardinal. While Arizona is 0-1, when playing with one day or less of rest, Stanford is already 4-0 in that situation. The only time that Arizona did play with one day or less worth of rest resulted in an outright loss against Butler. The fact that the Cats have had time off in between all their other games has helped with their injury issues. I expect it to catch up to them tonight though as a motivated Stanford team steps up and earns at least a cover. 

I'm playing on SD 10* BB. I successfully played against the Chargers in last week's loss at Cleveland. At the time, I noted the following: "...While next week's divisional home game vs. KC, likely their last in SD, figures to be far more meaningful to the Chargers, this game should mean everything to the Browns..." "Next week's divisional home game vs. KC" is now upon us and I do indeed expect this game to be meaningful for the Chargers. Rivers isn't a quitter and this team has fought hard all season. They know they can hurt the Chiefs by beating them and I expect a highly motivated effort. True, Gordon is out. I'm not too worried about that though; Hillman is adequate. Admittedly, injuries on the offensive line are of more concern. The Chargers have been battling injuries all season long though and that hasn't prevented them from outscoring teams by a 28.1 to 25 margin here. 

In their final home game last season, in what they thought might be their last game ever at SD, the Chargers routed the Dolphins by a 30-14 score. Afterwards coach McCoy had this to say: "What a day.  There’s nothing like winning in front of your home fans.  It was a great atmosphere out there today and a great team win…. The leadership on this football team, give them a lot of credit.  It's been a tough year .. but, our leaders on our football team, they kept on grinding with everybody else."

I expect McCoy to again have his team ready to play. With the Chargers at 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range and also 3-1 ATS their last four in the 'revenge role,' I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GOY. In Week 17 games such at this one, where both teams have been eliminated from postseason contention, I've found that the "more motivated" team covers the spread more often than not. In this case, I expect that to be the Vikings.

The Vikings got off to a promising start this season, but fell apart in the second half. Unlike the Bears, who are "evaluating young talent," they still believe that they've got a strong team. A win here won't fix things, but it will at least achieve a .500 record overall and a winning record at home. I believe that does mean something to the players. 

The Vikings also figure to have a score to settle, as the Bears beat them 20-10, back on Halloween night. (Some of you may recall me winning a big play on the Bears in that one.) The Vikings were still 5-1 before that loss and know that if they'd won that game, they'd likely be in an entirely different position right now. Note that they're 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. 

On the other hand, the Bears have been playing out the string for some time now. They're bad on both sides of the ball and Barkley is coming off another terrible game at QB. In fact, he's now thrown eight INT's the past two games alone. While a road win would be nice, it would still do little to salvage a dismal season. 

Playing at home should also provide the Vikes with some added motivation, as they'd like to reward the faithful with a victory. Motivation aside, the Vikes are just a much better team here than Chicago has been on the road. The Vikes are 5-2 ATS in games here, the Bears are 2-5 ATS away from Chicago. Minnesota has outscored teams here (slightly) while allowing less than 300 yards per game here. The Bears get outscored by an average of 11.4 points on the road (26.7 to 15.3) and allow nearly 400 yards per road game. 

The Vikes, who hammered the Bears by a 38-17 margin here late last season, are 6-3 ATS the past 2+ seasons when off a division loss and 7-3 ATS off b2b losses overall. The Halloween game notwithstanding, the Vikes typically take care of business against weaker teams. They're 10-4 ATS (11-3 SU) their last 14 against sub-500 teams. Look for them to bounce back and avenge the earlier loss in a big way, improving to a lucrative 18-7 ATS their last 25 here at home. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* GOM. Both these teams lost yesterday. Neither looked particularly sharp. Rondo got benched for the second half, which may well serve as a wake-up call. I like the fact that the Bulls played at 4pm ET yesterday, as opposed to the 8:00pm ET start that the Bucks had to deal with. They were already showering and getting ready to head home, before the Bucks even got started. Sleeping in their own beds should work to their advantage, with both teams in a three-games-in-four-days spot.

While the Bulls are only 3-4 ATS when playing the second of b2b games, the Bucks are just 1-5 SU/ATS when doing so. The Bulls should have some added motivation, as the Bucks beat them twice in a row earlier this month. The last thing they want to do is lose three games in a single month against a division rival which is neck-and-neck with them in the Central. 

The Bulls are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three as home favorites of three or fewer points, going 12-5 ATS (13-4 SU) in that role the past 2+ seasons. I expect them to rise to the occasion and close out the year with a win and cover.

I'm playing on MIAMI 10* GOM. While the Wolfpack have been beating up on some weak teams, the Hurricanes have been winning but not covering. That's brought this afternoon's line down lower than it easily could have been. I believe thats providing us with very fair value here. Note that the Canes are 4-0-1 ATS (5-0 SU) the past five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Wolfpack are allowing a whopping 83.7 ppg, to go along with a 47.8% opponent's shooting percentage, when playing on the road. The Canes, on the other hand, are allowing just 57 ppg here at home, holding visiting teams to a 35.6% shooting percentage. The Wolfpack have been underdogs twice this season and they failed to cover either time. Though some of the games have been closer than expected, the Canes have still won by at least eight points in each of their victories. Expect homecourt to prove the difference. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA 10* GOW. The Huskies have certainly had a great season. I believe that they're going to find out that Alabama is still in a different class though. The Huskies fared well within the Pac-12 but their non-conf. schedule was quite weak and the Pac-12 wasn't particularly strong this season. The one team that did beat the Huskies this season was USC, a team Alabama destroyed by a 52-6 margin. The fact that they haven't been an underdog all season, says something about the Huskies' schedule. The Tide are 9-4 ATS when laying points. The Huskies failed to cover against OSU the only time that they played with two or more week's rest this season. The Tide won and covered at LSU when they did so, not allowing a single point. When the dust clears, I expect there to be no doubt who the superior team was. 

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE 10* BC GOY. The Cards struggled down the stretch. However, this is still a very dangerous team, the same one which absolutely crushed Florida State (63-20) in a game earlier in the season. I believe they're going to be very motivated to prove that they're better than they've shown. Beating LSU would get rid of the bad taste from the last couple of games and make for a successful season. There is no denying that LSU has plenty of talent and the Tigers would obviously also love to close out 2016 with a win. That said, the year overall has been a massive disappointment and they're already looking ahead to bigger things in 2017. Even a victory here won't change that. This was a team that came in thinking it could be the national champion. While I like their chances of the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points with the Cards, who haven't been underdogs all season, and who are 5-3 ATS in that role the past 2+ seasons. 

I'm playing on CAL 10* ME. The home team won both meetings last season and I'm expecting homecourt to be the difference again tonight. Though banged-up, the Wildcats are off an impressive win over New Mexico. However, they're now on the road (just their second true road game) against a much stronger opponent. I expect their nagging bumps and bruises to finally catch up with them. Cal lost against Virginia last game. However, that was the Bears' first loss here in 27 games. They're still outscoring opponents by an average score of 73.9 to 58.2 on this floor. I expect them to bounce back with an important win. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. I've successfully played on the Pistons a couple of times recently. I backed them when they were getting a lot of points against Golden State, catching the Warriors looking ahead to their Christmas Day game vs the Cavs. Then, I backed them against the Cavs, sans Lebron, after that game vs. the Warriors. However, those were both favorable spots. With the exception of those games, the Pistons have not been very good. They lost by 25 last time out and have now dropped six of seven overall. Every one of those losses came by at least six points. The Hawks, who have won two of three, are playing with revenge from a blowout loss at the beginning of the month. Payback time.

I'm playing on ILLINOIS STATE 10* GOW. This lone could easily be higher. Illinois State is undefeated at home, outscoring teams by a 77.8 to 65 margin here. On the other hand, Evansville is 1-4 away from home, getting outscored by an average of 72.2 to 64. While the Purple Aces have been rolling, this wins have come primarily at home and entirely against lesser compeition. They've lost all four games when getting points, going 1-3 against the number. The Redbirds have won four of five including a 9-point win over St. Joseph's, a team stronger than Evansville, in their last game on this flloor. I expect them to pull away for a double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO 10* PERS FAV. The Lobos enter conference play off a bad loss at Arizona. They've had some time to regroup though. Returning home, I expect them to bounce back with a big effort tonight. Note that New Mexico is 16-2 SU the past 18 times that it played with seven or more day's rest in between games. While the Bulldogs are getting outscored away from home, the Lobos are undefeated on this floor outscoring visiting teams by an average margin of 78.8 to 63.8. With an O/U line in the low 140s, note that the Lobos are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. The visiting team won both games last season but the home team gets it done tonight. 

I'm playing on A&M 10* ME. The Wildcats check in as the hotter team but I feel that the Aggies are favored for good reason. Despite having to contend with an SEC schedule that included the likes of Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Tennessee, the Aggies stats are arguably superior to the Wildcats' stats. Texas A@M scores more points and puts up far more yards, while only allowing slightly more on the other side of the ball. While the Aggies were able to beat both Auburn and Tennesee, the Cats lost to all three of the top teams in their conference. Both teams faced a Pac-12 team early on. The Cats lost to Stanford. The Aggies beat UCLA. Snyder will have his team ready and the Cats are not to be taken lightly. All the same, look for the Aggies to be the last team standing. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. The Bulls got back on track last game, earning a victory over the Pacers. That snapped a 3-game winless streak and put an end to an ugly run which had seen them go just 1-6 their previous seven and 3-9 their previous 12. Recent games have come against quality opponents. Stepping down in class to face the Nets, I expect the Bulls to build off the Pacers' win and for them to deliver a blowout.

This game's got a high O/U line. Not surprising, given the fact that the Nets allow an obscene 117.7 ppg on the road. The high total is noteworthy as the Nets are an awful 1-24 SU and 9-14-2 ATS the last 25 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. During the same stretch, the Bulls are a profitable 8-4 ATS (9-3 SU) when playing at home with an O/U line of 210 or more. The Bulls won this season's earlier meeting (at Brooklyn) by 30 points. They also won the last meeting here at Chicago (last season) by 16. I'm expecting another one-sided affair. 

I'm playing on MIAMI 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Hurricanes are perfect on this floor and they outscore teams by a 78.2 to 55.3 margin here. They should win this one by an even wider margin than that. With conference play on deck, the Hurricanes are going to want to keep the pedal to the metal and build up confidence. Before recent wins over teams like George Washington and FAU, they'd faced the likes of Florida, Stanford and Iowa State. The 8-point win over GW was the only time in their past five games that the Canes hadnt won by double-digits. Columbia has yet to cover as an underdog yet this season and is just 7-12 ATS when getting points the past 2+ seasons. Expect this one to "get ugly."

I'm playing on TEXAS 10* PERS FAV. In their final game before Big 12 play begins, the Longhorns are looking to build confidence and momentum. They're off a dominating 96-60 win over UAB,  their best offensive game of the season. The Longhorns are looking to build off that impressive performance and prove that it wasn't a fluke. Kent State should provide them that opportunity. The Flashes are off b2b losses and are just 2-4 away from home. They have yet to see an opponent as talented as this one. Look for a double-digit win, the Longhorns improving to 22-8 ATS their last 30 lined games, after allowing 60 or fewer points in their preivous game.

I'm playing on SYRACAUSE 10* ANNIHILATOR. Off an awful 93-60 loss to St. John's before the Christmas break, I expect the Orange to bounce back and win this one in blowout fashion. The Big Red have a first year coach (Brian Earl) and he's about to learn that while these teams have met regularly, this is no rivalry. Indeed, with last season's 21-point romp, the Orange have won 36 straight in the series. Cornell is only 3-8 and that includes a 30-point loss, at Houston. I won't be surprised by a similar margin here, the Orange regaining their confidence with a rout, while improving to 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) the last eight times that they were off a game where they allowed 80 or more points. 

I'm playing on TEMPLE 10* ME. I've won my last few games involving MAC teams, successfully backing Eastern Michigan and Miami Ohio, while also winning with the Ohio/Troy total. None of those MAC teams are in the class of the Owls though. I backed the Owls in their last game and they rewarded me with a 34-10 blowout win over Navy. They've been a covering machine all season, as they've dominated on both sides of the ball. Off six straight double-digit victories, no opponent has stayed within two TDs since mid-October. Off three straight losses, losing by a combined score of 96-39, I don't believe the Demon Deacons are going to be able to match the Owls' confidence or intensity. Wake Forest is decent defensively but Temple is better. Meanwhile, the Owls have a signficant edge on offense. Still not getting quite the respect it deserves, Temple closes an outstanding campaign with yet another blowout win. 

I’m playing on DALLAS 10* MEGA PLAY. With the Cowboys already having clinched homefield advantage and the top spot, many are probably going to expect them to take their foot off the gas. Not me. Not this week. Not on a Monday Night home game, the day after Christmas. Rather, this is a chance for them to show the world just how good they are. 

Jerry Jones had this to say on the subject of "taking it easy": "I know that in our 2007 season here with Wade Phillips, we had a great season and then we turned around and got into the playoffs and rested pretty good the last ballgame. And we ended up losing the first playoff game that we had with home-field bye all the way through."

While the Cowboys have been winning, they've arguably lacked a big late-season "statement win," the type that can really propel a team into the playoffs. I believe that they're catching the Lions, who I also played against last week, at the right time. The Lions know that they could really use a win tonight. However, they also know that they've got a huge showdown with the red hot Packers next week. Regardless of what the Lions do tonight, that game will be the one which decides who wins the NFC North. 

The Lions, who are playing their second straight on the road, are 3-4 (2-5 ATS) away from Detroit. The Cowboys are 6-1 at home. They've outscored teams by more than a TD per game here this season (27.3 to 19.6) and I'm expecting them to provide us with a double-digit "statement" win on primetime.

I won with the Pistons (10* PERS FAV) in their last game, as they covered against the Warriors. It was a great spot, as they were catching the Warriors off a comeback win the previous night and looking ahead to the Christmas Day matchup with the Cavs. This spot is arguably even better, as they catch the Cavs off yesterday's big win over the Warriors and wiith Lebron and Irving (potentially) out. Regardless of who plays for the Cavs, look for the revenge-minded Pistons to step up and improve to 4-0 SU/ATS when playing with exactly two day's rest in between games.

I'm playing on VANDERBILT 10* BB. Both these defenses are pretty good. With an O/U line in the mid 40s, points are expected to be fairly hard to come by. That makes getting a handful of extra points with the surging Commodores pretty attractive. Vanderbilt closed the season with a 38-17 victory over Ole Miss and a 45-34 win over Tennessee. Though they didn't have to face Albamba, no SEC team beat the Commodores by more than single-digits this season. With the exception of an early-season loss at G-Tech, an ACC team that NC State managed to avoid, the Commodores were competitive in every game. They're 6-3 ATS when getting points. The defense has been respectable all season and the offense came to life down the stretch. As for the Wolfpack, the only teams that they beat by more than a TD this season were Syracuse, Wake Forest, Willam and Mary and Old Dominion. Both teams saw six of their games decided by seven or fewer points. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on SDSU 10* PERS FAV. While both teams recorded impressive wins on Thursday and Friday to be here, I particularly like the path that the Aztecs took. After a dominant defensive performance in their tournament opener, a 66-51 beating of Southern Miss, the Aztecs stepped up in class a little to take on Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane gave them a good challenge, for a while, as the game was tied with 11 minutes left. Thats when the Aztecs flexed their muscles and closed the game and went on a 21-4 run.

After losing, Tulsa coach Haith had this to say about the Aztecs: "...San Diego State is a tough-minded team and very physical, and it's the type of team that you can't give any help. We weren't as tough as you need to be to win that type of game..."

With wins over Utah and Illinois State to get here, the Dons have proven that they're to be taken seriously. They're just 3-12 SU (5-9 ATS) the last 15 times that they faced a team which allows 64 or fewer points though. With SF allowing 69.1 ppg (41%) and SDSU allowing just 62.5 (38.8%) I'm laying the small number with what I believe will prove to be the superior team. 

I'm playing on Houston 10* ME. Can the Texans win with Savage behind center? I believe they can. Keep in mind that the Texans beat the Bengals, at Cincy, last season when the Bengals were red hot. They did so with backup TJ Yates coming in to play QB and he hadn't thrown a pass for weeks. Dalton, who had been hot at the time, threw for only 187 yards and was sacked three times. He was intercepted once and didn't throw a TD. Unlike Yates in last season's game, Savage has the benefit of knowing that he's going to start and some preparation time. 

The Texans have been winning with defense at home all season. They allow just 17.6 ppg here, to go along with a mere 286 yard per game. Not surprisingly, they've only been beaten once here. Off last week's tough loss against hated Pittsburgh and with their home finale against division rival Baltimore on deck, I feel the Bengals, who are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS on the road, are going to have a tough time here. I won with the Texans in last season's game and I'm backing them again tonight.

I'm playing on HAWAII 10 ME. I already liked the Warriors' chances of winning tonight and with this line climbing from its opener, I feel that they're offering very fair value. While I played against them at times (like when they lost 66-3 at Michigan) this season, the Warriors fought hard down the stretch to get here, winning by a point at Fresno State and then beating UMass by six. They bring some positive momentum into the game, with their QB coming off the best game of his career. I believe that the advantage of playing in Hawaii will prove to be signficiant.

The Blue Raiders certainly had a solid season. Their QB hasn't played in quite some time though and they haven't faced nearly the type of opposition that Hawaii has. While the Warriors have faced the likes of Michigan and Boise (as well as SD State and New Mexico) to go along with Pac-12 teams like Cal and Arizona, the Blue Raiders' toughest opponents were Missouri, Vanderbilt and LA Tech. Sure, the Raiders looked good their past couple of games. Those were against Charlotte and FAU though. Their previous two games resulted in double-digit losses against UTSA and Marshall. They lost those games by 20 and 25 points. In fact, the (77-56) win over FAU in the finale was the first time that the Blue Raiders won a game by more than seven points since 10/1. With the Raiders just 2-7 SU/ATS their last nine in December, I'm taking the points.

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* GOM. Its true that the Chargers have been better than the Browns this season. Every team has. Being "better than the Browns" hasn't helped the Chargers much though. They still aren't going to the playoffs. And, they still aren't going to be returning to San Diego next season. That said, they can't be too thrilled about leaving So-Cal for a meaningless game at chilly Cleveland. The Chargers are banged-up at running back and receiver, as Gordon, Woodhead and Allen are all out. They represent just a small portion of the Chargers' current "bumps and bruises," as the complete injury list is lengthy, to say the least.

The Chargers, a west coast team playing an early game, have only two wins in seven road tries. Going back further finds them with just seven wins in 23 road games, the past few seasons. That includes a 0-1 ATS mark as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. 

While next week's divisional home game vs. KC, likely their last in SD, figures to be far more meaningful to the Chargers, this game should mean everything to the Browns. They don't want to finish the season without a win and they know that taking next week's game at Pittsburgh is likely going to be far more difficult than winning this one. Plus, they'd desperately love to "play Santa" for the home faithful. I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* BB. This one sets up nicely for the home team. While the Pistons had last night off, the Warriors received a tougher test than they were probably expecting at Brooklyn. While they ultimately did cover, thanks to a huge second half, the bad start forced them to have to fight hard the entire way. Green is expected to return, and he'll be fresh from not playing last night, but the rest of the team will be in a relatively tough back-to-back spot while also playing their third game in four nights. With a Christmas Day showdown vs. the Cavs on deck, given the success they've already had on the trip, it should be easy to look past the Pistons. The Pistons upset the Warriors here last season though, a 113-95 blowout when listed as 7-point underdogs, and I expect them to come ready to play. While the Warriors are 2-4 ATS in b2b spots this season, the Pistons are a healthy 24-10 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off an 'upset' loss. I'm taking the points and won't be surprised to see the Pistons bounce back with the outright win. 

I'm playing on SETON HALL 10*. The Pirates have destroyed Rutgers in recent Decembers. Last December, laying -5.5 points, they beat the Knights by a whopping 84-55 margin. The previous December was almost as bad, an 81-54 destruction, in a game where the Pirates were laying nine points. I expect another double-digit win this evening. The Pirates have beaten every opponnet on this floor by a minimum of 13 points. They're hitting 54% of their shots here, visiting teams connecting on less than 40% of theirs.

Its true that the Knights are off to their best start in 40 years, with only one loss. However, thats largely because they've only played one decent team. Their best wins came against Depaul and Stony Brook. The only time they faced a 'good' team (Miami) they lost by double-digits. Indeed, thus far, the Knights' schedule ranks as the second weakest of all the 351 Div 1A teams. 

Seton Hall's Angel Delgado had this to say about the Knights and their hot start: "They could be No. 1 in the country, we're still going to beat them. I'm coming with the mindset that we're not losing this game. That's how I feel, that's how I'm always going to feel. They were disrespecting us last year with a lot of stuff, but we're always tough here at home.''

While the Knights are 1-3 ATS their last four as road underdogs in the 9.5 to 12 range, the Pirates are 4-2 ATS as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Look for Delgado and co. to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* GOW. While I respect the Celtics, I believe that the Pacers are offering excellent value here. Off a loss at MSG and knowing that the Celtics already beat them here, I expect the Pacers to be extremely motivated tonight. This is a Pacers team which had hoped to close the gap with the Cavs this season. Instead, thus far, the Pacers have gone the other way. Instead, the Pacers find teams like Toronto, New York, Charlotte and these same Celtics all in between them and the champs. While only 500 overall, they're still a solid 11-4 at home, which is superior to Boston's 10-7 road record. 

While the Celtics, who were involved in a hard-fought OT game on Tuesday, have a big home game against OKC tomorrow, followed by a Christmas Day showdown with the Knicks, the Pacers don't play for another for days after this. Look for an inspired effort from the revenge-minded Pacers, as they'll be hungry to head into the break with a winning record, rather than a losing one. Indiana leaves it all on the floor and comes away with the important win. 

I'm playing on RHODE ISLAND 10* PERS FAV. Having scored a combined 225 points their last two games, the Tribe bring some impressive offensive stats to the table. However, lets keep in mind that those games came against the likes of Milligan and Savannah State. Also, both came at home where the Tribe are undefeated. Winning on the road has been an entirely different matter. Indeed, William & Mary is 0-4 away from home, all four losses coming by double-digits. 

While the Tribe gets outscored by an ugly 87.2 to 68.7 margin on the road, the Rams are outscoring teams by a dominant 78 to 60.7 points here at home. 

In their final game before conference play starts, the Rams are looking to build positive momentum with an aggressive "attacking" game. Coach Dan Hurley commented: "In a perfect world right now, with Hassan out, we wouldn't mind seeing the three guards shoot 35 to 40 shots between them in a game .... everyone in attack mode every single game. That's what we want to see from those guys."

While Hurley acknowledged his team was looking forward to conf. play, he added: "...you're also excited about the opportunity to end the nonconference the right way." 

I expect Hurley's Rams to do just that, improving to 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played against the Pistons in their last game. They were on the road and facing a Bulls team which was going to be extra hungry due to the fact it was off a blowout loss and due to having lost three straight. The shoe's on the other foot here though. This time, the Pistons are at home and this time they're off a blowout loss, their third straight defeat. They catch the Grizzlies off a game (OT loss!) vs Boston less than 24 hours ago, playing their third game in four days and their sixth game in the past nine days. While the Grizzlies are 2-8 ATS (0-10 SU) the last 10 times that they were road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range, the Pistons are 7-3-1 ATS (9-2 SU) the last 11 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. With the schedule in their favor, I expect the Pistons to bounce back and improve on those stats Wednesday. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE 10* GOW. The Golden Grizzlies bring the better record to the table. However, I believe that they're in the wrong place at the wrong time. Both teams are off a loss against Northeastern. However, while MSU faced the Huskies on Sunday, the Golden Grizzlies did so last night. Off last night's hard-fought defeat, this will be their third game in the past four days. 

I wouldnt have minded if Oakland had won last night, but a very close loss works even better. Either way, the Spartans figure to have plenty of motivation. Comments like these, made Monday by Oakland's coach (Kampe), figure to throw gas on the fire:

"We set this up, we knew it was coming, knew it was looming: three really good teams ... One could say that Northeastern's the best of the three teams we're going to play. I don't know if they’re better than Michigan State or not, but they sure were yesterday."

The Spartans have never lost to the Golden Grizzlies. Last season, they spotted them a 50-37 halftime lead but stormed back to win by six. This season, with the schedule in their favor, I expect them to jump on them out of the gate, as they did in 2014. In that meeting, MSU was up 13 by the break and won by 26. Look for the Spartans to bounce back big, improving to 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they had allowed 80 or more points in their previous game.