Sports Picks & Predictions

I am playing on DENVER. Sometimes you wonder whether a playoff bye is good for a team or not but in this case there should be no wondering for the Broncos – it was definitely a good thing. 
After having an early bye in September, the Broncos were a banged up unit with 22 players scrawled on the injury list before Denver’s season finale against Oakland. That included quarterback Peyton Manning and team leading tackler Brandon Marshall, who were back to practice this week and should be ready to go Sunday. 
For those wondering why the Broncos looked like they weren’t in top form in the closing weeks of the season, I believe they were just running out of gas. I think we’ll see a fully re-charged Denver team this week against Indianapolis, which is a huge reason I like the Broncos to cover the number. 
Julius Thomas is another player who benefitted from the rest opportunity after trying to shake an ankle injury since November. He had three touchdown receptions in the first meeting against the Colts, so his return to health is huge for the Broncos. 
Denver’s passing game in general is another reason I really like the Broncos here, not just because the Broncos had the fourth most passing yards per game and second most passing TDs in the NFL this season, but also because the Colts tend to struggle against the best passing teams.  Indianapolis went 1-4 against the top five passing offenses it faced this season and 2-3 against the spread in those games. That included a 31-24 loss to the Broncos to open the season, though Indy scraped out the cover with one point. 
I think with a rejuvenated Broncos squad on home field, Denver will be able to score enough against this defense to cover the number. Luck got hammered in his only other road playoff game of his career last year in New England (43-22) and I’m anticipating another double-digit win for the more experienced home side again this week. 10* Denver

I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls as a 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Bulls have a bad taste in their mouths after getting rolled by the Washington Wizards Friday night. Chicago is a resilient team and will take out those frustrations on the lowly Milwaukee Bucks inside the United Center Saturday.

The Bulls couldn’t slow down the Wizards' attack, which fired 47.7 percent from the field and knocked down eight of its 15 looks from beyond the arc. Chicago also committed 16 turnovers in the loss. Nights like those often leave players eager to get back on the court and erase the poor showing. Luckily, for the Bulls and us, they don’t have to wait long to do so, and present great value as a home side Saturday.

Milwaukee brings a bit of momentum into this matchup, which trims the spread a touch, earning back-to-back wins over Minnesota and Philadelphia – the Bucks’ fellow basement dwellers. Milwaukee is very small inside right now, with center Larry Sanders in limbo, forward Ersan Ilyasova out with a concussion, and rookie Jabari Parker lost for the year.

Chicago’s backcourt combo of Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler continue to struggle from the floor so expect the Bulls to get on the backs of their big men in this matchup, and exploit a thin Milwaukee forward corps.

Joakim Noah is working his way back to health and has some talented forwards around him in Pau Gasol and reserve center Taj Gibson. Chicago often dominates inside when playing at home, averaging 45.1 points in the paint in the Windy City, compared to just 38.3 on the road.

The Bulls’ anxiousness to erase Friday's poor performance and their dominance inside against a thin Bucks frontcourt is why I’m playing on Chicago as a 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO. This series has a history of Gonzaga laying too many points against an inferior San Francisco team and I think we have the same situation tonight. 
The Dons have are 9-3 against the spread in the last 12 meetings with Gonzaga and they are getting twice as many points tonight as they have in any game all season. It's also the biggest number this series has seen in at least the last 10 meetings.
San Francisco can shoot (46 percent from the field, 37 percent from 3-point land) which is a key reason I think they can keep it within cover distance tonight. The Zags are also playing their first home game since Dec. 15, so they may not be quite as sharp as usual at home. And Gonzaga is also introducing Vanderbilt transfer Eric McClellan into the lineup tonight in his first game being eligible. 
He led Vandy in points before he transferred and will be a great addition for Gonzaga, but I think the Bulldogs may try to work him into the game too much tonight against a weaker team and their offensive rhythm may be thrown off a bit. 
I believe this is too many points to give away against a team that can get hot shooting where Gonzaga may be more concerned with working a new player into the lineup than winning in a huge blowout. 10* Best Bet   

I am playing on XAVIER. After upsetting two ranked teams last week, Seton Hall has completely lost its element of surprise and I like Xavier to be fully prepared tonight and I really like them to cover the number. 
I believe the Musketeers have seen enough now to know how Seton Hall operates, which is to play high-pressure defense off rebounds and try to slow teams down in transition. Xavier should have some plans of how to combat that now and the Musketeers are no easy team to slow down to begin with. 
Xavier leads the Big East in scoring (79.9 points per game) and field-goal percentage (49.8) and is a team that knows how to light up a scoreboard. Seton Hall has also benefited from stopping teams from beyond the arc, where it ranks fourth in the nation but I don't think the Pirates can depend on that tonight. Xavier knocks down an amazing 40.3 percent of its shots from downtown at home this season, where it is 5-2 against the spread in games featuring a posted line. 
Seton Hall is just 1-2 on the road this season, where it allows 70 points per game compared to a season average of 60.8 points against per game. 
I just don't think oddsmakers are making Xavier lay enough here. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on the CLIPPERS. While it's true the Hawks ride a six-game road winning streak into L.A. tonight, I see the Clippers in a great situation here and I like them to come away with a convincing win.  
The Clippers are playing their sixth game of a nine-game home stand tonight, so they should be more than comfortable playing on home court and are likely experiencing their most consistent daily routines they'll see all season. 
They also had their first practice in nearly a month on Friday after playing 15 games in 33 days and the session paid off. L.A. pummeled the Sixers by 36 points and should be fully prepared coming into tonight's game against the Hawks. 
The Clippers are 4-1 straight up on their current home stand and they'll be looking for a little revenge after the Hawks beat them in their last game before the home stretch began. 
Atlanta is scoring off turnovers lately and I don't feel the Hawks can count on more of the same tonight. The Clippers rank fourth in the league with just 11.9 giveaways per game and point guard Chris Paul is tied for third in the NBA with 2.03 steals per game. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on BROOKLYN. I like that Brooklyn is getting a small pile of points at home here tonight in a matchup where both teams are playing on zero rest. 
Dallas is just 2-5 against the spread in the second of back to back spots this year and Brooklyn hasn't exactly been the Mavs' favorite opponent recently. The Nets won the last three meetings in the series and covered the spread in two of those. 
I think the Nets will give the Mavs some matchup problems inside where Brook Lopez and Mason Plumlee are doing some damage lately. Plumlee is averaging 14.5 points on 22-of-27 shooting over the last four games while Lopez is putting up 18 points on 31-of-50 shooting over the same time frame.
Dallas will likely look to win with quick transitions but where the Mavs are playing on back-to-back nights and in the final game of a 3-game East Coast road trip, I think they'll have trouble keeping their legs fresh as the game goes on. 
I like Brooklyn here, if not to win outright, then at least to cover this somewhat generous number at home for a team that has won six of its last eight games. 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the Portland Pilots as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

The Pilots are one of the hottest bets in college basketball heading into this weekend, riding a five-game ATS winning streak and have covered in nine of their 12 lined games this season. Portland is getting plenty of points at home to the Gonzaga Bulldogs Saturday.

The Pilots’ potent offense has lifted it over the oddsmakers’ expectations in those games. They’re putting up 73.3 points a night with one of the best perimeter games in the WCC. Portland is shooting 38.6 percent from beyond the arc but has been especially hot from distance the last three games, knocking down 47.4 percent of its looks from long range – averaging nine 3-pointers per contest in that span.

That ability to stretch the defense with that outside shooting touch lines up perfect against Gonzaga. The Bulldogs depend on their size inside to push around teams. However, with the Pilots bringing those big men outside the key, and returning to friendly rims after playing the last two games away from home, Gonzaga’s biggest strength could be neutralized.

This will technically be Gonzaga’s four straight road game after playing Cal Poly on a neutral court and traveling to BYU and San Diego before the New Year. The Bulldogs will find some size challenging them inside on the offensive end of the floor, and won’t dominate the boards like they have most opponents. Portland had outrebounded 12 of its 14 opponents and ranks 28th in rebounding margin at plus-7.6.

The Pilots' sharp shooting from beyond the arc and their toughness on the glass is why I’m playing Portland as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

I’m playing on the Florida Gators as a 10* Saturday.

These teams clashed in the Final Four last year, with UConn edging Florida to reach the national championship. The Gators have revenge on their minds as they host the Huskies Saturday. Florida has stumbled a bit in non-conference play, thanks to some offensive issues, but still play Donovan’s lock-down defense, giving up only 56.2 points per game – ranked 15th in the country.

Connecticut comes into this rematch with a limp. The Huskies could be without top scorer Ryan Boatright, who missed practice this week with a thigh contusion. Even if Boatright fights through a painful thigh injury, the Gators aggressive defense will go after the senior guard and put his health to the test.

The Huskies aren’t scoring a lot of points, so much of the offense depends solely on Boatright to make plays. He’s also an anchor on the perimeter on the defensive end. Connecticut will turn to versatile Daniel Hamilton to shoulder some of the ball handling duties, which takes him out of a scoring role and throws a major wrench in the Huskies' offensive sets.

This is also UConn’s first true road test of the season, after playing on neutral sites during non-conference competition. The Gainesville faithful will be frothing at the mouth after losing to the Huskies in last year’s tournament, so expect a heavy home-court edge for the Gators inside the Stephen C. O'Connell Center.

The Gators' defense keying in on the Huskies' weak links and a revenge-fueled home crowd is why I’m playing on Florida as a 10* Saturday.

I’m playing on the Utah Jazz as my 10* Non-Conference Game of the Week Friday.

The Jazz play hosts to the Atlanta Hawks, one of the hottest teams in the NBA. The Hawks have won eight of their last 10 contests, including a statement win against the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last outing.

The market is jumping on Atlanta’s success and this spread is puffed up a bit to reflect that shift in betting action. That opens up value on Utah, especially with this being the first stop of a three-game Western Conference road run for the Hawks, who could get caught looking ahead to matchups in Portland and in Los Angeles.

The Jazz are playing some of the best basketball of their season so far, with wins coming in five of their last seven games. In fact, Utah has been a solid wager with ATS victories in seven of its previous 10 outings, including back-to-back home wins over Philadelphia and Minnesota.

The Jazz have tightened up their defense during this stretch, allowing just under 92 points during that seven-game span – a sharp decline from their season defensive average of 100.0 points per game. Utah has trimmed that number to 88.7 points over its last three, with foes shooting just 41.8 percent.

The Jazz playing solid defense at home against a Hawks squad hitting the highway with some inflated odds if why I’m playing on Utah as my 10* Non-Conference Game of the Week Friday.

I’m playing on the UCLA Bruins as my 10* Bowl Game of the year Friday.

The Bruins meet the Big 12’s Kansas State Wildcats in San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl on Jan. 2. Both teams come in with nine wins but the Wildcats have been a completely different team away from Manhattan this season.

Kansas State’s defense is giving up an average of 31.4 points on 484.4 yards per game on the road – compared to just 14.7 points on 269.8 yards against at home. While this is technically a neutral-site game, that two-faced trend should have UCLA’s potent offense licking its chops.

The Bruins have one of the top passers in the country in junior QB Brett Hundley, who has been the driving force behind the 22nd-ranked offense in the country (467.9 yards per game). UCLA has a balanced playbook, passing the ball on just 46.43 percent of its plays, and turning lose an underrated rushing attack that carried the ball for 4.62 yards per attempt – second in the Pac-12.

The Bruins have some very talented players on the other side of the ball, especially at linebacker. Their 3-4 defensive set allows those standouts to shine. UCLA doesn’t give up anything deep – ranked second in the conference with the fewest plays of 20-plus yards – and will be tough to move the chains on when it comes to third down. UCLA’s opponents converted on third down just 40 percent of the time – something KSU is used to doing against softer Big 12 defenses this season.

The Wildcats’ two-faced defense on the road and the Bruins' balanced scoring attack is why I’m playing on UCLA as my 10* Best of the Best Friday.

I’m playing on the Xavier Musketeers as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

The Musketeers open their second year of Big East play against the gatekeepers of the conference, the Georgetown Hoyas, at home as part of the Big East’s New Year’s Eve Marathon. The Cintas Center in Cincinnati will serve as the Hoyas' first true road test of the year.

Georgetown is coming off a close win over Indiana, knocking off the Hoosiers 91-87 in overtime in a neutral-site matchup in Madison Square Garden Saturday. The Hoyas haven’t had to face a hostile crowd and will likely get an earful of New Year’s cheer from the Xavier faithful on Dec. 31.

Georgetown struggled away from D.C. last season, going just 2-9 on the road including five straight road losses to end the schedule. Going back to last year, the Hoyas are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last eight away games versus teams with a winning record.

The Musketeers are coming off a strong 9-3 SU non-conference schedule, butting heads with the likes of Auburn, Missouri, UTEP, Alabama, Long Beach State (twice), San Diego, Murray State, and Florida Gulf Coast – a solid mix of major-conference competitors and mid-major heavyweights. Xavier has done a fine job getting ready for the grind of Big East play.

Xavier ranks 16th in the country in scoring, pouring in 81.8 points per game – shooting 50.9 percent from the field - with an up-and-down style that contrasts Georgetown’s slow-motion Princeton offense. We’ve seen the Hoyas on their heels against teams that push the tempo, and the Musketeers play one of the fastest paces in the country.

The Hoyas' troubles on the road and the Musketeers' up-tempo attack is why I’m playing on Xavier as a 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I am playing on MISSISSIPPI STATE. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen said if his team could pick its bowl prior to the season, the Orange Bowl would’ve been their No. 1 choice and I think we’re going to see the best effort of the season from Mississippi State in Miami.

The Bulldogs’ losses came against the top team in the country, Alabama, and against what I feel is an underrated Ole Miss team. Mississippi State could very well be in the playoff picture and I think they will be way too much for Georgia Tech in this one.

The Yellow Jackets rely on their running game in the triple option offense and though Miss State didn’t have the most incredible defensive numbers, I think the Bulldogs have the speed and size to prevent Georgia Tech from getting to the outside on them and finding their holes.  The Bulldogs only allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season.

Teams also seem to do much better against Georgia Tech when they have the extra time to prepare. The Bees are 1-5 in bowl games under head coach Paul Johnson and they average just 14.8 points and 317.3 yards per game in those contests.

Georgia Tech's offense also enters this game without its top receiver, DeAndre Smelter, who tore his ACL and was lost for the season Nov. 29. Smelter was a great pass catcher for GT but was also a great blocker down field and is a huge loss for the Yellow Jackets.

When you put it all together, I just don’t think Georgia Tech has enough to cover against MSU. The Bulldogs own the ninth best total offense in the nation with over 500 yards per game. They can beat you on the ground, where they rank 20th in the country, and QB Dak Prescott is more than happy to air it out too, with almost 3,000 yards passing this season. Mississippi State ranks 16th in the nation in scoring offense with 37.6 points per game, which is why I will happily lay the points here. 10* New Year’s Even Personal Favorite 

I am playing on OLE MISS. I know a lot of folks are paying attention to the fireworks offense of TCU but there are a lot of reasons I like the Rebels in this one.

For starters, I think Ole Miss comes into this game in a much better frame of mind than the Horned Frogs. TCU is still licking its wounds after being left off the list of playoff-bound teams, despite closing the season by smashing Iowa State, which is what many felt it needed to do to get in. Ole Miss, on the other hand, is thrilled to be getting a New Year’s Eve bowl game after fighting its way to just three losses this season in the best conference in the country.

The Rebels are coming off  their best win of the season, a 31-17 victory over Mississippi State, in which the Rebels controlled the game from start to finish. That was a much needed boost of confidence for Ole Miss, who had struggled to three losses in four games prior to that game.

I think a little too much can be made of those losses, which is why the Rebels aren’t favored here. They lost by a combined seven points to LSU and Auburn and this is the SEC after all. The loss to Arkansas was against a much improved team that has a record that isn’t really telling the truth right now.

The Rebels own the best scoring defense in the country with a stifling 13.6 points against per game.  I typically like defense over offense and when we’re talking about the best in the nation in the best conference in the nation, this isn’t really a tough pick for me.

Ole Miss can also score with an average of over 30 points and over 440 yards per game. The Rebels have won six straight bowl games and are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five postseason contests.

To give just one more reason I really like the Rebs here is that they’ve already played in the Georgia Dome this season, where they beat Boise State 35-13 in their season opener. They covered the 9.5-point spread in that one and I believe they’ll be 2-0 against the number in Atlanta this year by the time this game is over. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on NOTRE DAME. I like the Irish here largely because they’ve decided to change up their game plan, a much needed move after they lost their last four games to close out the regular season.

Coach Brian Kelly announced he’ll be playing both Everett Golson and Malik Zaire at QB in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. Golson was the starter for all 12 games this year and is no doubt a talented QB, but he became a turnover machine and coughed the ball up 22 times season including eight lost fumbles.

That’s just way too often to be handing the ball over to the opposition and many of those decisions came from poor decision making with Golson trying to manufacture too much under pressure or on broken plays. Zaire brings an added rushing threat and that’s good because the Irish will need to find ways to keep an LSU defense guessing. LSU ranks eighth this season in total defense.

The Tigers don’t, however, have a fabulous offense and that’s another big reason I think Notre Dame can keep this one close. The Tigers rely almost completely on running the football and own the 114th ranked passing attack in the nation.

Notre Dame doesn’t have the best defense in the country but if it can focus on one dimension, the Irish can load the box and slow LSU enough to cover the spread. The Domers possess an opportunistic secondary and they picked off 16 passes this year and may be able to get a couple more if LSU starts forcing throws.

I don’t expect this one to be the prettiest of bowl games and in those cases I tend to really like the underdog and that’s no different here, especially with the number of points Notre Dame is getting. 10* Music City Bowl Best Bet

I’m playing on the Michigan Wolverines as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.

The Wolverines are hoping some home cooking can get them back on track with Big Ten play opening against the Illinois Fighting Illini Tuesday. Michigan snapped a four-game skid with a victory over Coppin State Eagles, but failed to cover the spread for the seventh straight game. The market has soured on the Wolverines and we see that with this very slim spread at home. There’s value to be had with Michigan in what could already be a must-win game.

Michigan head coach John Beilein has been harping on defense since his program’s four-game slide, getting a much better effort in the win against the Eagles. The Wolverines sit near the bottom of the Big Ten in most defensive statistics but have done a good job creating turnovers, forcing opponents to cough up the ball 14.5 times per game.

Illinois does a very good job of taking care of the ball but if Michigan can up the intensity on defense and force the Illini to make some mistakes, the Wolverines could blow this game wide open. Illinois is not sound defensively and has already been ripped by some big-name programs, giving up 77 points to Oregon and 73 points to Villanova.

The Wolverines will definitely have a unique home-court edge for Tuesday’s conference opener. Rumor has it that the school will introduce new head football coach Jim Harbaugh – a former Michigan star – at the game. That has sparked a flood of ticket sales and will pack the Crisler Center for what would normally be a ho-hum matinee game. Michigan has covered in seven of its last eight versus Illinois and 12 of its last 14 home stands against the Illini.

The market overacting to the Wolverines' struggles and a big boost coming at home is why I’m playing on Michigan as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Charlotte Hornets as my 9* Personal Favorite Monday. The Milwaukee Bucks visit the Hornets, picking up their busy road schedule Monday night. The Bucks seem to be hitting the wall with three losses in their last four games and key players on the sidelines.

One of those losses came at home to the Hornets, who exploded out of the half for a 34-point third quarter and forced 20 total turnovers from the Bucks in a 108-101 road victory as 5.5-point underdogs. It was the fifth time Charlotte has covered in their last seven meetings with Milwaukee.

The Bucks looked lifeless in their second half of a home-and-home set with Atlanta, managing only 85 points on just under 39 percent shooting Saturday. They were without versatile rookie forward Jabari Parker and two key components of their frontcourt in center Larry Sanders and forward Ersan Ilyasova. Both big men won't be in action again Monday.

Milwaukee had 19 turnovers in that contests and continues to cough up the ball, averaging 17 giveaways per game – third most in the NBA. The Hornets are on the opposite end of the scale. Charlotte ranks tops in the NBA in turnovers per game, handing the ball over only 11 times a contest. It’s playing more a controlled pace and seeing great results in its backcourt.

Guard Kemba Walker has benefited the most, ranked among the best point guards in assist-to-turnover ratio and erupted for 42 points in the loss to Orlando Saturday. Charlotte should also get a big game from center Al Jefferson, going against a thin Milwaukee forward corps missing two top defenders.

The Bucks stretched thin on the road and the Bobcats capitalizing on Milwaukee’s turnover troubles is why I’m playing on Charlotte as my 9* Personal Favorite Monday.

I’m playing on the St. Louis Rams as a 10* Sunday. The Rams aren’t going to the tournament but have plenty of motivation versus the defending Super Bowl champs in the season finale.

St. Louis already has a win over Seattle this season and has covered in four of its last five meeting with the Seahawks. The Rams took a 28-26 victory at home in Week 7, getting some huge plays on special teams including a 90-yard punt return touchdown from Stedman Bailey.

Seattle has struggled to contain returners all season, allowing an average of 11.5 yards per punt and 23.9 yards per kickoff return. The Seahawks face a Rams special teams that has plenty of speed and ranks third in the NFL in punt return average and has taken two returns back to the house. St. Louis could be looking at solid starting field position on most drives, something Seattle is not used to giving away.

The Rams would love nothing more than to finish 2014 on a high note. St. Louis’ season seemed lost when QB Sam Bradford went down with an injury before the schedule started. However, the defense came together and the Rams youngsters picked up the slack on offense.

The Rams have dropped back-to-back contests and are a prideful team, especially on defense. St. Louis has been one of the most dominant pass rushes in the second half of the year. The Rams have 37 sacks, including nine in the last three games, and got to Seattle QB Russell Wilson three times in their last meeting.

St. Louis will bring the same pressure in Week 17, get Wilson on the move and tighten up the coverage down field. The Rams won’t give away anything big down field, so expect this game to be a tight, defensive grinder. That makes this big spread even harder for Seattle to cover.

The Rams ability to get gains on special teams and their defense not allowing any big strikes is why I’m playing on St. Louis as a 10* Sunday.

I’m playing on the Kansas City Chiefs as a 10* Sunday. Kansas City hosts the San Diego Chargers in the season finale. The Bolts have a clear shot at the postseason while the Chiefs need a win over San Diego and a lot of help from other teams in the playoff mix. There’s no shortage of motivation here for the home side.

Kansas City lost for the fourth time in the last five games to Pittsburgh last Sunday, putting its playoff chances in the “slim to none” category. But that won’t stop the Chiefs from going out and playing their AFC West rivals hard – at least relishing the opportunity to play postseason spoilers in Week 17. Arrowhead Stadium will be rocking for the season finale.

Kansas City already scored a win over San Diego back in Week 7, edging the Chargers 23-20 as a 3-point road underdog. The Chiefs limited San Diego QB Philip Rivers to 17-for-31 passing and 205 yards in that game, catching Rivers at a time when he was in the MVP conversation. Rivers limps into the final game of the season nursing a bad back and a chest injury.

The Chargers are ripe for a letdown after a remarkable comeback against the San Francisco 49ers last week. San Diego fell behind 28-7 and battled back to take a 38-35 overtime victory. San Diego’s defense has allowed an average of almost 27.5 points per game in the last five contests.

The rushing defense was mowed over for 355 yards against the 49ers and has allowed 184.3 yards per game in the last three outings. The Bolts face a run-heavy Chiefs playbook with two very capable rushers splitting carries. Running back Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis will see extra action with QB Alex Smith out with a lacerated spleen.

The Chiefs at home and running against a weak San Diego defense is why I’m playing on Kansas City as a 10* Sunday.

I’m playing on the Tennessee Titans as a 10* Sunday. The Titans are playing for pride in the regular season finale, getting a handful of points from the Indianapolis Colts Sunday.

The Colts are coming off a rough loss to Dallas last weekend and can’t improve their playoff standing with a win in Week 17, having already clinched home field for a Wild Card Weekend matchup next weekend. While head coach Chuck Pagano told the media he plans to play his starters, that playing time could diminish with a postseason matchup lurking the next week.

Indianapolis has won four of its last five games heading into Week 17 but has been anything but dominant in those victories, with a 2-2-1 ATS mark in that span. The Colts have been terribly careless with the football, turning the ball over 15 times in that five-game span including three giveaways in the loss to the Cowboys.

Tennessee has a respectable pass rush with 38 sacks on the season and was able to get to the quarterback four times in last Thursday’s loss to Jacksonville. The Titans can go for broke in the season finale and try to get Andrew Luck moving around in the pocket, hopefully making some mistakes. Indianapolis is going with second-year center Khaled Holmes again, so there's a glaring weakness in this Colts' protection.

The Colts have also been beaten up on the ground in recent games. They allowed Dallas to plow the road for 127 yards rushing and have given up an average of 126.3 rushing yards in the last three outings. Tennessee will attempt to control the football and pace of the game after possessing the pigskin for just 17:39 in the first meeting between these AFC South rivals. The Titans actually dominated time of possession versus Jacksonville, at 34:52, so they know how to hog the ball and milk the clock.

With the Colts focused on the postseason and not playing solid football recently, I’m playing on Tennessee as a 10* Sunday.

10* Tennessee. Analysis before 7am PST

I am playing on NEBRASKA. I think the Cornhuskers are getting a few extra points here because their coach, Bo Pelini, was fired at the end of the year. But I see two pretty evenly matched squads here and I think that storyline is a little overvalued so I’m taking the points.

Nebraska will turn to Barney Cotton in the interim to coach the team before Mike Riley takes over after leaving Oregon State to take the job. Cotton has been coaching with the team for eight years and was previously an offensive lineman there and I think he’ll have this team inspired to beat USC. It wasn’t a graceful split between Pelini and Nebraska and several players spoke out in support of their coach on social media. I believe they’ll be determined to finish the year with a win as Pelini’s team.

The Huskers have a versatile QB in Tommy Armstrong Jr., whom I feel will give USC fits. The Trojans suffered their worst loss of the season against UCLA’s Brett Hundley, a dual-threat QB who threw for three TDs and rushed for another against USC. Armstrong passed for 2,314 yards and 19 touchdowns this year and rushed for 664 yards and five more TDs and led Nebraska to being the No. 13 scoring offense in the nation this year.  

USC can score too but what I like that the strength of the USC offense - it’s passing game - will go up against the strength of Nebraska’s defense.  USC has the 15th best passing attack in the nation but Nebraska owns the third-best passing efficiency defense in the country.

I believe oddsmakers have set this one too high and it’s definitely possible that the Huskers could win this game in their third trip to the Holiday Bowl since 2009. 10* Saturday Main Event

I am playing on ARIZONA STATE.  The Sun Devils own the higher scoring offense, they have a much shorter trip to the Sun Bowl, they play in the better conference and they’ll have the best playmaker on the field for this game. 
Arizona State averages 37 points per game, which ranks a respectable 17th in the nation and this team tends to score by airing it out. The Sun Devils toss it for 276 yards per game and rank 16th in the nation in red zone offense so once they get close, they tend to get their points. 
It’s comforting for any QB to have a running back like D.J. Foster on his squad, who is the only RB in the nation with over 1,000 rushing and over 646 receiving yards this season.  Even when Duke is able to slow down the ground assault, the Blue Devils will have Foster to contend with. 
Perhaps the biggest reason I like Arizona State though is that this team owns a playmaking defense. The numbers, in terms of points against and yards against, aren’t the best but this team comes up big when it needs to. ASU tied for the Pac-12 lead with 13 interceptions this season, which is a huge reason the Sun Devils own the sixth-best turnover margin in FBS. They also rank 24th in red zone defense, so we may see this defense bend a little but it finds a way not to break. 
Duke has a long way to travel for a very tough matchup and I don’t believe the Blue Devils have the squad to cover this number. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on SAN ANTONIO.  The Spurs looked flat in a loss to Oklahoma City on Christmas Day and I believe they’ll bounce back today against the Pelicans. 

San Antonio seemed slow in transition and got killed on the boards 47-38, allowing OKC to grab 16 offensive rebounds yesterday. Sometimes it’s better to play on the road on Christmas Day to avoid the distractions and I think San Antonio may have been a little sluggish after a busy day at home with the families before heading to the arena. 

The Spurs are a great bounce-back team though and are 8-4 after a loss this season. I think they’ll have fresher legs today despite the back-to-back spot and they’ll be able to earn a win against the Pelicans. 

One thing I liked about the Spurs yesterday was their shooting. They were hitting a lot of their mid-range jump shots and went 42-of-81 on field goals (51.9 percent). I think we’ll see more of that hot shooting today and a more energetic squad going up against a Pelicans unit that might have a bit of the same Christmas legs syndrome the Spurs suffered from yesterday. 10* western conf. best bet

I am going with the better quarterback in this game and in this case it also happens to be one of the best in the nation in Jacoby Brissett for the Wolfpack.   Brissett is one of three quarterbacks in the nation with 20 or more passing touchdowns, 300 or more rushing yards and five interceptions or fewer. The junior also ran for three touchdowns and I think his dual threat ability will keep this UCF defense on its heels.  The Pack finished the season with three wins over their final four games and they lined bettors' pockets with four covers over their last five games. They allowed just 20 points combined in their final two games, both wins, and won the yardage battles in both those games by over 200 yards.  For UCF, this bowl game isn't just a step down from the Fiesta Bowl it played in and won last year, it's a whole flight of stairs down, and you have to wonder a little about the motivational factor. I can't help but think the Knights already reached the apex of their season when they beat ECU on a now infamous last-second Hail Mary to claim a share of the AAC title.  

NC State has shown flashes of brilliance this year – like owning a 24-7 lead over Florida State before ultimately losing that game – and I think we’ll see more of that Wolfpack team the day after Christmas in the Bitcoin St. Pete’s Bowl.  10* Best Bet

I am playing on DETROIT. Despite a four-game losing streak, the Pistons are showing some signs of coming together as a team and I like them to take a win from the sub-par Pacers today.

Detroit has seen five different players lead the team in scoring over its last five games, which says to me that everyone on this team is still fighting to win. The Pistons eliminated the distraction of trade rumors swirling around second leading scorer Josh Smith when they waived him a couple of days ago. It sounded like Smith wasn’t happy in Detroit and you have to wonder how much that was weighing things in the locker room.

Detroit still has five players who average double figures, so I don’t think it will be much of a tragic loss for the team and other players have been waiting to step up. Jodie Meeks is looking stronger every game and has scored in double digits in three of his six games since his return and provides Detroit with a much needed outside threat.

Defense has been the problem for the Pistons over their four-game losing streak but the Pacers are just the team you want to see when you are having trouble on D.  Indiana ranks 26th or worse in the NBA in 3-point shooting, field-goal shooting and points per game.   10* Best Bet

10* Clippers. Analysis before 10am PST

I am playing on NEBRASKA. The Cornhuskers are coming off their lowest scoring game of the season after a 50-42 win over Loyola-Marymount, but they finished the game on a high note and I think they’ll carry that momentum into this Christmas Day game against Ohio.

Junior Terran Pettaway has been a shining offensive bright spot for the Huskers and he hit two three pointers and went 7-for-8 at the free throw line in overtime to lead Nebraska to the win. Nebraska also came up with two big stops in OT to seal the deal.

“(The offense) is going to come. One thing we pride ourselves on is defense, and that’s what got us through the Big Ten (last year),” Pettaway said after the game.

Nebraska’s defense held LMU to just 16 points in the first half, a record for futility in a half in the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii

Ohio might be just the team to be facing to get some scoring going. The Bobcats have allowed an average of 74.2 points against over their last five games and they're allowing opponents to shoot 43.6 percent from the field during that span.

Nebraska is allowing super stingy 60.4 points per game over its last five, which isn't far away from the team's season average of 61.9.

I feel the Huskers' suffocating defense, along with the generous defense of Ohio, will propel the Huskers to a win and cover on Christmas Day. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday. Orlando plays host to a Boston Celtics team trying to find a new identity after dealing away point guard Rajon Rondo last week. The Magic are getting solid value at home Tuesday.

Boston’s up-tempo attack was missing that extra gear in a 100-84 road loss to the Miami Heat Sunday. The Celtics, who play one of the fastest paces in the NBA, scored a season-low 84 points on 39.8 percent shooting. Marcus Smart took over the point guard duties and Jameer Nelson came off the bench, failing to fill the scoring punch Rondo provided.

This Celtics team has plenty of work to do to plug those gaps but hitting the road won’t help the cause. Orlando is a solid defensive team, giving up 99.3 points per outing, and plays one of the more methodical paces in the game – averaging 94.6 per 100 possessions. It could drag this game into a snail's pace and force Boston to play a halfcourt set.

The Magic remain one of the better outside shooting teams in the NBA, knocking down 37.4 percent of their looks from beyond the arc. That number bumps up to 38.6 percent inside the Amway Center. Orlando is getting terrific production from reserve guard Evan Fournier, who has knocked down 40.7 percent of his 3-point attempts and comes into Tuesday with the hot hand, hitting seven of his 12 shots from distance.

If Orlando continues to knock down 3-point buckets, that could put some serious space between them and Boston on the scoreboard – a gap that the Celtics offense may not be able to close with the rotation a mess and the offensive identity in flux.

A Boston offense in turmoil and the Magic’s sharp shooting from outside is why I’m playing on Orlando as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Cincinnati Bengals as my 10* Main Event Monday. The final Monday Night Football of the season is shaping up to be an instant classic. The Bengals welcome the Denver Broncos to Paul Brown Stadium, fighting for their playoff lives on the NFL’s primetime stage.

Cincinnati can clinch a postseason ticket with a win at home Monday night. The Bengals have a battle with the rival Pittsburgh Steelers in the season finale, so they won’t leave anything to chance on Monday night. Cincinnati is going to be stingy on both offense and defense versus Denver.

The Bengals best chance to stop Payton Manning & Co. is to keep them on the sidelines, and their dominating run game allows them to do just that. Cincinnati has a two-headed monster on the ground in Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill. The pair rushed for 227 yards on 40 carries in last weekend’s shutout of the Browns, completely controlling the pace of the game.

Cincinnati has rushed for an average of 147.3 yards in its last three games, chewing up an average of 32:14 minutes with the football. Against the Browns, the Bengals hogged the pigskin for almost 39 minutes. Denver is one of the best defenses against the run, but with Bernard and Hill – two very different style runners – keeping fresh legs on the field all game, the Bengals will wear down the Broncos front line and expose the loss of run-stuffing LB Brandon Marshall.

On defense, Cincinnati has started to round into form after an inconsistent year on that side of the ball. Factoring out a rough day against the Steelers in Week 14, the Bengals have limited each of their last four opponents to 13 or fewer points. They go up against a Denver offense that has changed faces in recent weeks.

The Broncos have turned to a shorter, more ground-geared attack. Manning hasn’t gone over 300 yards in four straight games and has completed only 14 passes in each of the past two contests. On top of that, the Broncos QB is nursing a thigh injury. The Bengals front four will get Manning moving in the pocket, testing just how tender that injury really is.

The Bengals are at home and desperate to clinch a postseason pass, with the ability to pound out the pace and limit the Broncos offense. That’s why I’m playing on Cincinnati as a 10* Main Event Monday.

I’m playing on the Miami Dolphins as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The Dolphins’ playoff hopes are thinning but this game versus the Minnesota Vikings is still a huge must-win situation. Miami is at home to a team coming off a crushing defeat last Sunday.

The Vikings back into this game off a slim 16-14 loss to the Detroit Lions. The Lions took the lead late in the fourth quarter and stole what could have been Minnesota’s third straight win. It was the Vikings’ fifth road loss of the year and makes for a tough week to prepare for the Dolphins.

Run the ball and stop the run is the old adage when it comes to winning football games, and Minnesota can’t do either. The Vikings’ rushing attack has averaged 94 yards per game over the last three contests, including only 76 yards on the ground against Detroit.

Without a respectable run game, the Dolphins pass rush will be all over rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater. Miami comes into Sunday with 34 sacks and will move Bridgewater around in the pocket and force bad decisions. He’s thrown three interceptions to three touchdowns in his last two games, and has five INTs in his last five games.

Minnesota has been beaten up by the run this season. The Vikings, who have undergone a major change on defense under Mike Zimmer, are still getting gashed on the ground. Minnesota has given up an average of 142 rushing yards in its last three games and faces a Dolphins offense that can exploit that weakness and keep the Vikes’ pass rush at bay with a solid ground game.

That will open up the passing game on playaction and help QB Ryan Tannehill find his targets. The Dolphins take a conservative approach to passing the ball, but if the run is established, Tannehill can strike for deep throws to Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline.

The Dolphins needing to win to stay alive in the postseason picture and the Vikings’ letdown and shaky run game is why I’m playing on Miami as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I am playing on UNLV. The Rebels play on the Strip for the first time in the school's history in this Coaches vs. Cancer matchup at the MGM Grand Arena and I love that they're getting a pile of points.
The Rebels are coming off a gritty 75-73 overtime win over Portland but they were six-point favorites in that game and coach Dave Rice wasn't happy with the effort. I think that actually benefits the Rebels in this spot because Rice spent time in the film room with his team this week hammering on rebounding and getting his team focused for Utah. I think we'll see a much sharper UNLV team tonight as a result. 
The Rebs got out-rebounded 35-27 against Portland and Rice said it was largely due to the guards not boxing out and being where they're supposed to be on rebounds. I think we'll see them correct that problem tonight and try to get up and down the floor quickly against a big Utah squad. 
Utah hasn't played in a week since losing to Kansas in its last game and we may see some rust early from the Utes. That works in our favor with UNLV seeing the most underdog points of the season since the team played Stanford Nov. 21. 
The Rebels have scored at least 75 points in each of their last three games and Utah hasn't scored more than 69 in its last three games.
I like UNLV to at least keep it close tonight and possibly even pull off the upset in what is the last game on the college board tonight. 10* Main Event

I am playing on the CLIPPERS. Los Angeles is laying a bunch of points but that doesn't bother me much here and I think they'll handily take care of the Bucks tonight.
I think the Clippers will come out hungry after a 109-106 loss to the Nuggets in which they missed a couple of three-pointers in the final seconds. 
Los Angeles actually doesn't mind playing on back-to-back nights this season where the team is 5-1 straight up and 3-3 against the spread. Milwaukee comes into this one in a much worse schedule spot, playing its third West Coast road game in four nights. 
I believe fatigue will show, especially on defense for the Bucks, which isn't good for them considering they're giving up a whopping average of 108.3 points over their last six games. The Clippers should take full advantage of that as the No. 4 scoring team in the NBA with 106 points per game this year.   
Another reason I like L.A. tonight is DeAndre Jordan. He's been a defensive beast for the Clippers this month with an average of 15.7 rebounds in nine games in December before last night's game and he's also averaging 2.8 blocks. 
With the Clippers' offense and Jordan's defense against a tired Bucks team, I believe we'll see the Clippers take this one and cover the big number in a dominating effort. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on DETROIT. Despite Detroit’s troubles this season, the team is showing some positive signs and I believe the Pistons are in a good spot to take the points Friday night. 
The Pistons have now lost 11 straight at home and crowds are getting more sparse every night. That just makes the Pistons more hungry to win a game for the home crowd and we’re seeing signs of fight from them. Andre Drummond scored 19 points and hauled in 24 rebounds in a monstrous effort against the Mavs two nights ago. Detroit failed to cover but was as close as being within five points with 2:35 left to play and narrowly missing covering for the third time in the team's last four games. 
I think the Pistons will rally around Drummond and continue to give teams a fight until they can get a win at the Palace. 
One thing I like about Detroit is I think we’ll start seeing better things from beyond the arc. They shot 39 percent from 3-point land Wednesday night, a huge improvement from their season average of 33 percent. 
The return of guard Jodie Meeks should help with that since his return four games ago and he’s slowly seeing more floor time each game. I think that will help Detroit spread the floor a little more and give Drummond some outside help as he continues to do some damage inside. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on DETROIT. The Pistons have shown signs of playing better recently with two wins in their last three games and I believe we’ll see a team hungry for a win tonight after failing to give the Motor City faithful a victory on home court in their last 10 games at the Palace.

Detroit went 2-1 on its recent West Coast road trip that ended with a 22-point drubbing at the hands of the Clippers. I think we can throw that last game out for what was likely a weary Pistons squad that was playing its third game in four nights in the Pacific Time Zone.

The good news in that blowout is that Jodie Meeks had a chance to see some floor time and he scored 20 points in 29 minutes. I think that could be just what he needed in his third game since returning from injury and I believe Detroit will start to see a much-needed contribution from him from 3-point range, where Detroit has struggled all season.

Trade rumors are swirling around the Pistons these days and that’s another reason I like them right now. It’s reasonable to think some players may want out of this losing squad that seems desperate for answers and sometimes we see teams elevate their play with potential trades in the works.

I like that Detroit is getting a handful of points at home here also. The Mavs are coming off a win over the Knicks last night and they tend to scrape out wins, but not cover in the second game of back-to-backs. They are 4-1 straight up in that spot this season but just 1-4 against the spread. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on an ATLANTA team that I feel is playing its best football of the season. The Falcons are also a strong bet at home, while Pittsburgh’s scoring numbers show the Steelers typically play a step below their capabilities on the road more often than not this season.

The Falcons are 4-2 against the spread at home and a perfect 3-0 as a home underdog, the spot they are in against the Steelers this week. Home dogs in general have been a solid spot for bettors most of the season at 34-30-2 against the spread and an incredible 16-10 ATS over the last month (61.5 percent).

Atlanta has looked like a new team the last two weeks with a win over the Arizona Cardinals (tied for top record in the league) and a respectable 6-point loss in Green Bay against the current Super Bowl favorites on Monday night.

The Steelers are 2-3 straight up and against the spread in their last five road games and they’re scoring average drops by close to a touchdown from 27.8 to 21.7 points when they hit the road this season. I believe that may not be enough to keep up with an Atlanta passing attack that’s been on fire its last two games.

Matt Ryan has passed for a combined 736 yards and six TDs against two interceptions over his last two games while Julio Jones has been the best receiver in the NFL for two straight weeks. A Pittsburgh defense, meanwhile, has struggled to make plays this season with just 24 sacks (24th in the NFL) and eight interceptions (also 24th in the NFL).

I feel Ryan will stay in his groove this weekend against this defense and the Falcons will hold their place atop the fledgling NFC South as a team that continues on the rise. 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the UCLA Bruins as my 10* Main Event Saturday. The Bruins take a four-game winning streak into the weekend but face a huge test in the Gonzaga Bulldogs inside Pauley Pavilion. Oddsmakers aren’t giving UCLA much respect and there is value in a very talented Bruins team.

UCLA took some losses on the chin against some of the better basketball programs in the country, falling to Oklahoma and North Carolina at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, but have built back up its confidence with a softer schedule in recent weeks. The Bruins have won four in a row – just what this team needed to boost its confidence.

One of the players seeing the benefit of this stretch of schedule is freshman forward Kevon Looney. He’s averaging over 13 points and almost 11 rebounds in those four wins and will be called upon to go up against one of the best frontcourts in the country Saturday. Looney is a tough matchup for the Bulldogs big men, with his ability to play down low or on the wing. Gonzaga doesn’t see players like the 6-foot-9 five-star recruit every day.

Gonzaga’s backcourt has hit a bit of a snag. Star guard Kevin Pangos was scoreless in the Bulldog’s win over Washington State and had just eight points in the loss to Arizona. Gonzaga continues to struggle with its guard rotation since freshman backup PG Josh Perkins went down with a broken jaw. Pangos is often stranded at point guard, unable to find his scoring rhythm. He also faces a much bigger UCLA backcourt Saturday, which should add to his offensive woes.

The Bruins being able to stretch the Bulldogs big men and limit Gonzaga’s backcourt scoring is why I’m playing on UCLA as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

I’m playing on the VCU Rams as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. Virginia Commonwealth is one the mid-major gatekeepers, having shown its dominance in past NCAA tournaments. The Rams host a fellow mid-major star in No. 24 Northern Iowa Saturday.

The Panthers ride a perfect 9-0 record into the week, coming off a tough situational spot in Denver. Northern Iowa’s national ranking has put a target on its back – something the Panthers aren’t used to dealing with. The Rams have made a name for themselves sinking Top 25 teams and have been playing at one of the highest levels in the country this winter.

Virginia Commonwealth has had a week to prepare following a loss to Virginia and has already played other major-conference opponents Oregon, Villanova, and Tennessee. The Rams boast the seventh hardest schedule in the country and the combined record of their pre-Christmas opponents is 71-26. Outside of the motivation of knocking off a ranked team, VCU also has revenge in mind after losing to NIU 77-68 last December.

The Rams defense isn’t playing up to their past standings, allowing 70.2 points per game. They’re still forcing opponents to make mistakes – averaging 17.6 forced turnovers per game – but have been exposed in the half-court set. Virginia Commonwealth will try to hurry up the NIU offense with their infamous pressure defense and turn those mistakes into quick buckets.

The Rams playing at a much higher level of competition with revenge on their home court as the fuel is why I’m playing on VCU as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on DETROIT. I believe the Pistons are going to play with a little desperation tonight as they aim to avoid tying a franchise-worst 14-game losing streak. I believe that, along with a few other elements, will help them cover against the Suns tonight and I anticipate it happening with room to spare. 
The Pistons have covered five straight meetings with the Suns and they were set as underdogs in three of those. I think Detroit might be able to hit some three-pointers against the Suns to keep things close. The Suns have been allowing opponents to shoot better than 40 percent from downtown over their past five games and three-point land is one of the few spots Detroit ranks around the middle of the league (and not the bottom) with a 33.1 percent accuracy rate. 
Another element I like working for the Pistons here is rumors are swirling that the team could be broken up after the holidays. Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings have been mentioned as players the team might want to shop due to their big contracts. 
Considering Detroit is 3-19, it has the worst attendance in the NBA and Michigan winter weather is coming, it’s logical to assume players might want out. In times like this, we often see players step up their games and play their best basketball in hopes other teams might take interest. 
I believe that’s what will happen here and I’m taking the Pistons with a pile of points before oddsmakers adjust . 10* Best Bet

I am playing on the IOWA HAWKEYES. Home court has been the ultimate factor in this bitter in-state rivalry with 10 of the last 11 victories going to the home side. It’s the biggest reason I like the Hawkeyes tomorrow, with this game being held in Iowa City. 
"I don’t think it’s different in a rivalry game than in other games," said Iowa coach Fran McCaffery this week.
Sure it’s not, coach. It certainly wasn't the case last year. The Hawkeyes let the Cyclones score the final eight points in the game and they ultimately lost 85-82 as a hostile crowd rained hatred down on an Iowa team that felt its collar squeeze a little too tightly. 
The shoe will be on the other foot this time around. Carver-Hawkeye Arena will be sold out for the first time in eight games this season and the cheapest tickets on StubHub are pushing 60 bucks. 
Expect that crowd to focus on Iowa State star Bryce Dejean-Jones, who was suspended Thursday by the Cyclones for a recent drug related arrest. He is expected to travel with the team to Iowa City, but won’t play. He’ll be an absolutely huge loss for Iowa State as the team’s leading rebounder and second leading scorer with 17.1 points per game. The loss is made even worse by the fact Iowa plays some pretty tough D and ranks ninth in the nation at defending field goals. 
This marks Iowa State’s first true road game of the season and I don’t like the way things are stacking up for the Cyclones. Gimme Iowa to cover its third straight meeting in this series. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. Home court is one of the biggest reasons why I love the Colonials to win and cover the number in this home-and-home series with DePaul that will finish next year in Chicago. 
George Washington is 18-1 in its last 19 contests at Smith Center including 3-0 this season where they claimed those three contests by an average of 33.0 points. If that trend continues tonight, that's enough to cover the spread by three times over.
The Colonials are also on a 7-2 against the spread run at home dating back to last season and I expect them to overpower DePaul tonight with tough defense and great team basketball.    
GW owns the 35th best scoring defense in the country (58.0 ppg against), the 31st ranked three-point defense (27.5 percent) and the team is 38th in fewest fouls per game (15.9).
Joe McDonald is the backbone on offense and is the kind of do-everything point guard that coaches dream about. He has 8.9 points, 1.4 steals and a team-high 6.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game. I don't believe DePaul will be able to match up with GW's backcourt with McDonald and junior guard Patricio Garino. Garino is on fire with 16.5 points on 62 percent shooting in the Colonials' past four games and he leads the team in scoring with 14.6 points per contest. 
George Washington is also the far better rebounding team in this contest with a 5.6 rebounding margin compared to DePaul's -0.9 margin. I think George Washington will control the play with its rebounding, defense and backcourt play and will be able to handily take down the Blue Demons on home court. 10* Personal Favorite

10* T-Wolves. Analysis before 10am PST.

I’m playing on the Charlotte Hornets as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday. The Hornets have enjoyed an extended break following a win over New York that snapped a 10-game losing skid. That’s given Charlotte time to focus on what’s working and bring some important bodies back before taking on a Boston Celtics squad that’s already had a busy week.

The Hornets took a 103-102 win over the Knicks, finally getting the monkey off their backs. Charlotte then had four full days of rest and practice to prepare for the Celtics’ up-tempo attack. There are some pluses to having such an extended hiatus.

The Hornets will have forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist back on the court Wednesday, providing a big lift on both ends of the floor. And Charlotte has been able to find other ways to integrate Lance Stephenson into the offense, after its big offseason addition finally started producing. Stephenson has scored 16 and 20 points in the last two games.

Boston went to war with the Washington Wizards this week. The Celtics took both games of a home-and-home set but those were grueling battles, avoiding a late collapse on Sunday and playing two overtime periods Monday.

The Celtics could come into this road game flat, especially against a Charlotte team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA. The Hornets have a pace factor of 94.1 (points per 100 possessions), which ranks 26th in the league, while Boston tops the NBA with a torrid 100.7 pace. Charlotte could put the breaks on Boston’s style of play and force the Celtics into a halfcourt grinder.

A rested and prepared Hornets team and a Celtics side ripe for a flat performance is why I’m playing on Charlotte as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Atlanta Falcons as my 10* Super Play Monday. The Falcons are finding their form just in time for a postseason push, and ride that momentum to Lambeau Field for a Monday Night Football showdown with the Green Bay Packers.

Atlanta has won three of its last four contests, including a big statement win over the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday, pushing the Falcons back to the top of the NFC South. They put up 29 points on 500 yards against the top defense in the NFL and have enough fire power to match the Packers’ potent passing attack.

The deep ball is quickly becoming a major weapon for Atlanta, especially with receivers like Julio Jones and Roddy White burning up the turf. The Falcons scorched the Cardinals secondary with long passes last Sunday and face a less-than-intimidating Green Bay unit, which has allowed 366.8 yards per game – 25th in the NFL.

A good chunk of those yards allowed have come on the ground, where Green Bay’s opponents are marching for more than 132 yards an outing. That number could be a lot worse if not for the offense’s production putting opponents behind on the scoreboard and forcing them to abandon the run.

Atlanta is coming off its best rushing performance of the season, rumbling for 142 yards on 34 carries against Arizona. That allowed the Falcons to dominate the clock, holding on to the ball for more than 37 minutes. They have the ability to control the pace of this game, especially if the deep pass connects and opens up room for the runners.

The Packers run the risk of suffering a letdown in Week 14, coming off a huge win against the New England Patriots – a game many said was a Super Bowl preview. Green Bay has been the best first-half team in the NFL, but if they come out flat Monday, this spread is far too large to make up ground against the Falcons, who are also among the best first-half scoring teams in the league.

The Falcons’ momentum and the Packers’ letdown potential is why I’m playing on Atlanta as my 10* Super Play Monday.

I’m playing on the San Diego Chargers as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Bolts host the New England Patriots Sunday night, hoping to catch Tom Brady & Co. in a tough spot. New England, off a loss to Green Bay, travels across the country for this primetime game.

San Diego is quietly staying in the postseason hunt, bringing a three-game winning streak into Week 14. The Chargers edged Baltimore on the road last Sunday and have lost just once inside Qualcomm Stadium this season, going 3-3 ATS in those games.

The Bolts have the firepower to match the Patriots, putting up 24.7 points on 383.3 yards per game during that winning streak. And with the calendar turning to December, San Diego backers can only expect those numbers to go up. Quarterback Philip Rivers is one the best passers in the final month of the schedule, boasting a 30-6 career record in December.

Rivers will have the Patriots secondary on its heels with his various deep-ball threats. That should open up the underneath routes for TE Antonio Gates as well as make running room for RB Ryan Mathews, who is starting to return to form after missing most of the season with injury. The Packers were able to keep New England guessing with a balanced playbook and dominated time of possession, owning the football for 36:35. San Diego has the tools to do so Sunday.

A hot Chargers team with enough offensive pop to match the Patriots is why I’m playing on San Diego as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the Philadelphia Eagles as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The Eagles are coming off a huge divisional win on Thanksgiving and host the defending Super Bowl champs, crossing the country for a showdown between a high-powered offense and a hard-nosed defense in Week 14.

Philadelphia is finally finding its footing in the ground game after struggling to pick up rushing yards all season. The Eagles dominated the Cowboys with 256 yards on the ground on Thanksgiving and have averaged 176.3 rushing yards over the last three games – tops in the NFL in that span. Running back LeSean McCoy is making his fantasy owners happy, putting up 377 total yards rushing in that three game span – that’s 37 percent of his total yards on the season.

The improvements on the ground can’t come at a better time for QB Mark Sanchez, who is right at home in Chip Kelly’s system. Since taking over the No. 1 spot following an injury to Nick Foles, Sanchez has thrown for 1,404 yards. He played perhaps his best game against Dallas last Thursday, mainly because he didn’t turn the ball over.

Hidden behind the headline the offense gets is a dominating Eagles defense. Outside of a blowout loss to Green Bay, Philadelphia has allowed an average of just under 17 points per game since shutting out the Giants back in Week 6.

The pass rush was the most impressive part of Thanksgiving’s win, putting Cowboys QB Tony Romo on his heels on nearly every snap and scoring four sacks against the top offensive line in the NFL. We've seen Seattle QB Russell Wilson struggle when his line breaks down, and Philadelphia will be able to move Wilson around and close in on him with its tremendous speed on defense.

Everything is hitting its stride for the Eagles just in time to host the defending Super Bowl champs, which is why I’m playing on Philadelphia as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on the Jacksonville Jaguars as my 10* Divisional Best of the Best Sunday. Jacksonville is in a rare spot, bringing momentum into Sunday’s action after defeating the Giants last week. The Jaguars try to keep it rolling against the Houston Texans, who have split wins and losses in their last six games.

Jacksonville seems primed for another late-season surge after being stuck in the NFL basement all season. The Jaguars showed signs of life at this time last year, winning three straight games – two of which came against the Texans.

Houston could get caught looking ahead to another divisional road game in Indianapolis next week and has had a hard time staying consistent this season. The Texans are a dismal 2-9 ATS when coming off a victory and have covered in just three of their previous 10 games against AFC South rivals.

The Jaguars defense has logged more minute than all but two teams in the NFL, skewing their results. The Jacksonville stop unit is very aggressive, with 37 sacks heading into Week 14, and put Giants QB Eli Manning on his back four times last Sunday. The Jags will throw the kitchen sink at Houston QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who will be hard pressed to repeat his six-touchdown performance from Week 13 – even against Jacksonville.

The Jaguars' hunger for more wins and the Texans looking ahead to the Colts is why I’m playing on Jacksonville as my 10* Divisional Best of the Best Sunday.

I am playing  on FLORIDA STATE. All the Seminoles ever seem to do is win and their winning streak is now at a legendary 28 games. I believe their streak will continue on Saturday in the ACC Championship game and they’ll grab the money at the betting window to go along with it. 
Florida State isn’t the best bet in the nation this year at just 3-9 against the spread but the defending national champion Seminoles also saw a pile of inflated spreads. It’s no coincidence that in two of the three games they covered, the spread was set at less than a touchdown (-1.5 vs. Miami and -3.5 vs. Louisville).
The number is set below a touchdown once again this Saturday against the Yellow Jackets and that bodes well for the Seminoles. The Noles have covered the spread when the number is set at less than a TD in their last five tries going back to the 2011 season. 
We all know about the clutch play of reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston this season, but another reason I really like Florida State here is because of defensive coordinator Charles Kelly. Kelly is intimately familiar with Georgia Tech’s triple option offense after serving under Paul Johnson from 2008 to 2012. The Noles beat Citadel – the only other triple option offense they’ve faced this season – 37-12 while not allowing a rushing TD in the game. 
Florida State also ranks seventh in the nation in red zone defense while Georgia Tech ranks a lowly 90th in red zone offense, one of the key mismatches in this game that may be overlooked by many.  
Georgia Tech will also be without its top receiver this Saturday, another reason I like Florida State.  DeAndre Smelter tore his ACL last game against Georgia and will be gone for the remainder of the season. 
Smelter earned 715 yards receiving and had seven TDs this season but might be missed even more as an excellent downfield blocker. The injury is a huge blow for the Yellow Jackets and is a key reason why I see Florida State pulling away for the win and cover. 10* Conf. Championship Best Of Best - Florida State 

I’m playing on the Detroit Pistons as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. The Pistons take on the Philadelphia 76ers playing the second night of back-to-back games after a hard-fought contest against the Thunder Friday night.

The market has corrected to the Sixers’ improved play. Philadelphia has covered in four straight games and is 6-1 ATS in its last seven outings, including picking up their very first win of the season during this span. Like all value plays in the modern sports betting era, this will dry up pretty quickly and there is now opportunity to play against the 76ers, who were 4-8 ATS before this recent stretch. We're staying ahead of the curve with this selection.

Detroit is not the team you want to face on the second night of back-to-back games. The Pistons play a physical brand of basketball, with a beefy frontcourt pounding on opponents and a dominance on the glass, fighting for every rebound. Detroit pulls down 54.6 boards per game – fourth most in the NBA – picking up 12.6 of those rebounds on the offensive glass. Expect the Pistons to win the loose-ball battles and score easy second-chance points.

Philadelphia has been battling hard during that current ATS hot streak, playing against some of the toughest teams in the NBA – OKC, Dallas, San Antonio. There might not be much left in the tank after an up-and-down game with the Thunder Friday. The Sixers watched Oklahoma City knock down 49.3 percent of its looks Friday and is allowing opponents to shot 46.6 percent on the season. Philadelphia is just 18-38 ATS in its last 56 games when playing the night before – covering just 32 percent of the time.

The market adjustment on the Sixers’ ATS streak and their second game of back-to-backs versus the physical Pistons is why I’m playing on Detroit as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on TULANE. At first it may appear like Tulane doesn’t have much to play for, but this will be Senior Day for the Green Wave and all signs are pointing to a strong effort. 
"I told the kids, you want to send the seniors out the best way you can because these seniors have been awesomely outstanding," said an upbeat sounding Tulane coach Curtis Johnson at his weekly press conference.
Johnson is in transition mode at Tulane, where he’s trying to build a program of winning with a change in attitude. This young offense is still making strides and players know they are still fighting for starting spots next season. 
That means Tulane is going to be a stiffer challenge than Temple would probably like with the Owls needing a win to become bowl eligible at 5-6 this season. All the pressure sits squarely on Temple, who has scored just 32 points over its past three games while committing nine turnovers. The Owls coughed up four fumbles over that stretch and averaged just 271 yards of offense. 
Temple picked a bad time to play its worst football of the season and I’m not so sure the Owls shouldn’t be the ones getting the points in this game.  10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the Arizona Wildcats as my 10* Game of the Week Saturday. The Wildcats put their unbeaten record up against the unblemished Gonzaga Bulldogs and can boost their national ranking with another win over one of biggest mid-major powers in the country.

Arizona’s depth was on display in its most recent win, rolling Gardner-Webb 91-65. It got double-digit scoring efforts from four players and had 11 players make the scoresheet. The Wildcats’ bench contributed 33 points in the victory and helped jump start an offense that has dragged its feet in the opening half.

Arizona coach Sean Miller is preaching quicker starts after his team averaged just 34 points in the first half of games this season. The Wildcats answered with 40 first-half points versus Gardner-Webb. Arizona is having no issues closing out opponents, thanks in part to that scoring depth, putting up an average of 41.9 points in the final 20 minutes – 17th in the country.

That ability to pour it on late will overwhelm a Gonzaga team still trying to patch up holes in its backcourt since losing guard Josh Perkins to a broken jaw. Perkins was averaging just five points per game as a freshman coming off the bench, but his most important role was spelling Kevin Pangos at points guard, allowing Pangos to more to the No. 2 guard and give the Bulldogs more scoring punch.

Gonzaga struggled in the first half versus Southeastern Louisiana, actually trailing the Lions 33-32 at the break. Pangos cooled off after scoring all 12 of his points in the first half, being left to handle point guard duties. The Bulldogs will need his extra scoring punch if they want to keep up with Arizona.

The Wildcats' depth and the Bulldogs’ rotation issues are why I’m playing on Arizona as my 10* Game of the Week.

 I am playing on IOWA STATE. I feel the Cyclones are getting way too many points from oddsmakers here and it makes sense to take the Cyclones in a spot where most bettors will be shying away.  The Cyclones are the last place team in the Big 12 while TCU could manage to squeak its way into a playoff position if it has a monstrous win over Iowa State. I feel that intangible factor has added a generous helping of added points to this pointspread like an extra helping of mashed potatoes on last week’s Thanksgiving dinner plate.  The Cyclones offense is actually playing its best football of the season with 55 points over their last two games. They racked up close to 1,000 yards of offense combined in those efforts against WVU and Texas Tech and I believe they’re going to find a way to get their points again this Saturday.  TCU will score too – it always does - but I feel the Horned Frogs may lack a little bit of focus in this game and could be more concerned with winning pretty for the playoff committee than simply winning. That works in our favor here.  Iowa State has covered the last two meetings with the Horned Frogs and I believe they’ll make it a third in a row on Saturday with so many points to work with from the sportsbooks. 9* Breakfast Club  

I am playing on EAST CAROLINA. The Pirates have the benefit of playing on home field on Senior Night for this nationally televised contest on ESPN and I think the crowd will help ECU maintain its perfect record on home soil this season. 
The Pirates are 5-0 at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium this year and they’ve won by an average of 22 points against FBS opponents at home and by no fewer than 10 in any of those games. The AAC’s best offense plays even better at home than overall this year, where ECU averages over 600 yards of offense including over 400 yards passing. The Pirates also average nearly nine more points at home (46.4) than when you throw their road games into the mix (37.8). 
UCF, meanwhile, has a sputtering offense on the road this season where it averages just 312 yards and 18 points per game. The Knights scored 27.8 points per game on the season overall and when you compare those numbers  to their road scoring, it’s not much of a surprise their only two conference losses came away from home this season. 
UCF has the best defense in the AAC but in this case I think offense will prevail. Senior quarterback Shane Carden  ranks third in the nation in passing yards per game and will be motivated to finish an outstanding career at ECU in style. 10* Thursday Night Main Event 

I am playing on TULSA. I believe the Golden Hurricane are undervalued in this spot tonight and we can thank an incredibly tough schedule to date for that. 
Tulsa faced undefeated Wichita State and Oklahoma State in its last two games, both losses as underdogs, and Auburn before that.  I believe they enter this game a little more battle-tested than Creighton, who is still feeling its way through the early season. Creighton returns only one starter from its most successful senior class in school history, including the loss of three-time All-American Doug McDermott. 
Tulsa has lost the last four meetings with the Bluejays, including each of the last three years which I believe will only fuel the Hurricane’s fire tonight. They did manage to cover in each of the last two years against Creighton and I feel defense and home court will help them win and cover the small spread tonight. 
Tulsa is holding opponents to 58.7 points per game this season and allowing them to shoot at just 39.5 percent on field goals. The Golden Hurricane are also 20-7 against the spread in their last 27 games on home court and have won their two home games this season by an average of 18.5 points. 10* Tulsa - Personal Favorite  

10* Wizards. Analysis before 10am PST

I am playing on the PISTONS. This matchup against the Lakers is just what the Pistons sorely need tonight and I believe Detroit will snap its eight-game losing skid. 
There’s nothing like facing the NBA’s worst defensive team when you are the NBA’s worst shooting team and the Pistons have the added benefit of home court. The Lakers are allowing a pathetic 112 points per game, while Detroit is shooting just 41.2 percent on field goals this season. 
One of the reasons I believe the struggling offense will beat the struggling defense here is because the Lakers are coming off an emotional 129-122 overtime win over the Toronto Raptors on Sunday. Kobe Bryant had his 20th career triple double and became the first player to ever reach 30,000 points and 6,000 assists with the effort.   
As a result, Kobe has been the talk of the NBA world for two days and Twitter has been abuzz with his incredible achievements. Any time the Lakers are small favorites or underdogs (like tonight), books know they are going to attract some automatic Laker action. In those instances, I often lean toward fading L.A. but when the Lakers are getting this much added attention I like the play even more. 
The Pistons desperately need a win, especially at home, and I think they’ll take capitalize on a Lakers squad that is horrible defensively and in an emotional letdown spot. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the New York Jets as my 10* Best Bet Monday. The Jets are back home in the Meadowlands after a bad loss to Buffalo last Monday, hosting a Miami Dolphins team playing its third road game in the past four weeks for another Monday Night primetime matchup.

The Jets hand the ball back to second-year QB Geno Smith in Week 13, after benching him for veteran passer Mike Vick four weeks ago. Smith came in against the Bills last week, completing 10 of 12 passes for 89 yards and boasted a 97.6 QB rating – his highest mark of the season.

He was terrific against Miami last season, passing for 190 yards and adding on another 44 yards and a touchdown on the ground in the regular season finale. Smith has the ability to break off big gains with his legs but often seems hesitant to do so. Knowing that the job is his until the end of the season, we expect a much more confident and comfortable Smith under center.

Miami has a solid pass defense but has shown a weakness to the run. The Dolphins allowed Denver RB C.J. Anderson have a monster day last weekend, rushing for 167 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos tallied 201 total rushing yards in that win.

The Jets have a potent ground game behind Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson, who have helped lift New York to fifth in the league in run yards per outing - 136.4 per game. They can control the ball, keep the pass rush at bay, and wear down the Fins stop unit with a smash-mouth playbook, mixing in playaction passes and some scrambles from Smith.

The Jets' offense playing loose at home against a road weary Dolphins team is why I’m playing on New York as my 10* Best Bet Monday night.

I’m playing on the UTEP Miners as my 10* End of Month Blowout Sunday. The Miners battle the Washington Huskies in a showdown between undefeated programs in the final of the Wooden Legacy in Anaheim.

UTEP has already added two big non-conference wins to its NCAA resume, with victories over Xavier and Princeton in this tournament. The Miners also knocked off the Huskies’ rival, Washington State, in their opening game of the year. UTEP won’t be intimidated by this major conference opponent Sunday in California.

Washington’s 5-0 mark to start the schedule doesn’t boast many big-name opponents. The Huskies knocked off Long Beach State and San Jose State to grab a spot in the championship game and have yet to play a member of a major conference. Washington has puffed up its early-season stats against this weak slate of games and collides with a tested UTEP team still trying to prove its place in the rankings.

The Miners are an aggressive team that gets to the paint, draws fouls and crashes the boards. UTEP averages 16.8 free throws per game, drawing 21.2 fouls an outing. On the glass, the Miners pulled down 38.5 rebounds a night – 11 of those on the offensive end. They don’t give back much in return, allowing an average of only seven offensive boards.

The Miners’ impressive non-conference calendar and their ability to get to the line and control the boards is why I’m playing on UTEP as my 10* End of Month Blowout.

I’m playing on the Green Bay Packers as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. We get a possible Super Bowl preview when the Packers host the New England Patriots at Lambeau Field in Week 13. The Cheeseheads are dominant at home and will look to flex their muscle for the Green Bay faithful Sunday.

New England has defeated a who’s-who of star NFL quarterbacks in recent weeks, knocking off Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford. However, no player is even close to performing on the same level as Aaron Rodgers right now – especially Rodgers on his own turf. Rodgers has a 138.1 QB rating inside Lambeau and has connected for 18 of his 30 touchdowns at home.

To complement Rodgers’ prowess through the air, RB Eddie Lacy is starting to pick up steam and is coming off a monster day versus Minnesota last Sunday. The bulldozing back rushed for 125 yards and a touchdowns, his first 100-yard effort in six games. Lacy will be key to controlling the pace of the game and keeping the Patriots defense honest.

New England hasn’t met a dominant rushing attack since a close call against the Jets back in mid-October. New York RB Chris Ivory, who has a similar running style as Lacy, rumbled for 107 yards and a touchdown and allowed the Jets to dominate the ball with 40:54 time of possession. In their last loss, to Kansas City on Monday Night Football in Week 4, the Pats were bullied for 207 yards on the ground and the Chiefs used up 36:27 of clock.

Green Bay will come out strong, looking to put New England on its heels. The Packers are tops in the league in first-quarter scoring, averaging 10.4 points in the first 15 minutes. New England hasn’t had to play from behind often this season and could find itself out of that comfort zone quickly Sunday.

I’m playing on the Atlanta Falcons as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Falcons are home to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13 trying to stay atop the NFC South. Arizona finds itself outgunned on the road against a desperate team.

The Falcons won back-to-back games before being upended by the Cleveland Browns last weekend. Atlanta is first in the division despite a lousy record but has the offensive explosiveness to compete each week. The Falcons have a dominant passing game, ranked seventh in the NFL with 269.5 yards through the air per outing.

Atlanta will be tested against a blitz-happy Arizona defense, which thrives on pressuring the passer. However, the Falcons offensive line does a good job keeping quarterback Matt Ryan clean. Atlanta has allowed just 23 totals sacks all season and Ryan has only thrown nine interceptions.

If the Falcons can weather the storm on offense, they will be able to outgun a Cardinals attack that has mustered only 17 points in the past two weeks. With backup QB Drew Stanton under center and some missing pieces in the passing game, Arizona has totaled just 455 yards passing with two touchdowns and three interceptions in the last two contests.

The Falcons defense is at the bottom of the barrel in terms of yards allowed but this stop unit has also made big plays, with 12 interceptions on the year. Atlanta had three picks against the Browns last Sunday and two against the Panthers the week before.

A Falcons offense with plenty of pop and a defense that can take advantage of the Cardinals' QB troubles is why I’m playing on Atlanta as a 10* Best Bet.

I am playing on ALABAMA. If I were to run down all the impressive numbers the Crimson Tide possess, you’d have to clear your evening schedule, pull up a couch and get comfortable. 
To name just a few, they rank  fifth in the nation in total defense, second in rushing defense, second in scoring defense, 16th in team passing efficiency and in the top 11 in both third and fourth-down conversion percentage.  
There is a reason Bama is ranked No. 1 in the College Football Playoff Rankings. 
The only reason the Tide’s numbers on offense aren’t quite as blow-you-away as the stats on defense is because they spread the ball around so much. Auburn defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson said this week that Lane Kiffin has “a toy box full of toys” on offense and they get “everybody the ball.” 
That’s especially scary for a Tigers defense that enters the Iron Bowl after allowing 30 points or more in five straight games against FBS competition, a streak that leaves a stain so bad, it’s never been seen before in school history. 
Now they face an Alabama team that has won 15 straight games at Bryant-Denny Stadium, which ties for the nation’s longest home winning streak with Baylor. Bama is plowing the field for 42.9 points per game at home this season, but what I love even more is they are holding opponents to ridiculous 58.4 yards rushing at home. 
Auburn absolutely needs to get its run game going to have any prayer of covering, which ranks tops in the SEC with 266 yards per game. But I just don’t see that happening against Alabama. 10* Main Event - Alabama 

I’m playing on the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels as my 10* Game of the Week Saturday. The Rebels host the Albany Great Danes at the Thomas & Mack Center Saturday, back home after a showing in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic tournament in New York.

UNLV split games in Brooklyn, losing by 11 to Stanford then upending Temple in the consolation final. The Runnin’ Rebels are struggling to score, failing to net more than 60 points in their first four games of the season. Head coach Dave Rice is looking to his team’s lockdown defense to create easy offense, with fastbreak points off turnovers.

Albany escapes the chilly New York weather for a trip to the desert. The Great Danes have been in Las Vegas since Thursday, spending the holiday together while also experiencing the sights and sounds of Sin City. Las Vegas is a tough place to stay focused for even the savviest programs.

The Great Danes aren’t a scoring threat and should have a tough time with the Rebels defense, which is allowing opponents to shoot just 33.9 percent from the field. Albany has puffed up its offensive numbers against some weaker foes the last two games but runs into UNLV 6-foot-11 shot swatter Christian Wood, who had four blocks in the win over Temple along with 18 points and 13 rebounds. The Great Danes only go as big as 6-foot-8 in their starting frontcourt.

The Runnin’ Rebels defense and an Albany team a long way from home is why I’m playing on UNLV as my 10* Game of the Week.

FLORIDA at FLORIDA STATE 
I am playing on FLORIDA STATE. Despite the criticism the Seminoles have faced for their slow starts this season, they’re winning by an average of 13.3 points per game that’s plenty to cover the spread for this week’s game against the Gators. 
Oddsmakers usually get it right in this series and the favorite has covered the spread in six of the last seven meetings. I think Florida State’s offense will simply be too much to for the Gators to handle here and we’ll see the Noles take their fourth win and cover in the last five meetings. 
Florida State brings the No. 12 passing offense into its final game of the regular season – the same one that lit up the Gators for 327 yards and three TDs through the air last year in a 37-7 victory. Florida couldn’t even manage to cover the four-touchdown spread in that game. 
On defense, the Seminoles don’t have a lot of flashy numbers to throw around but this team gets it done when it counts. They own the No. 9 red zone defense in the country, the No. 8 red zone offense and the 12th best 4th-down conversion defense. 
What I also like about the Seminoles heading into Saturday is they are still playing like they have a bone to pick. They are ranked third in the College Football Playoff Rankings, even though they are the defending national champs and undefeated, while the two teams ahead of them each have a loss on their records. 
Florida State likely also hasn’t forgotten that the last team to beat them was the Gators – two years ago. 10* Non-Conference Best of Best Florida State

I’m playing on the Atlanta Hawks as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday. The Hawks host the New Orleans Pelicans, who are in a grueling stretch of games in which they play nine of 11 contests away from the Big Easy.

Atlanta is eager to get back on the court after a missed opportunity against the conference-leading Toronto Raptors Wednesday. The Hawks had strung together back-to-back wins in the two games prior, including a statement win over the Washington Wizards the night before. They’re playing solid basketball in recent weeks, winning six of their last nine outings with a 5-4 ATS mark in that span.

Atlanta has one of the most efficient offense in the NBA, netting 103.5 points on 46.6 percent shooting per game. However, if the Hawks are to keep this pace they know they must tighten up on defense as the calendar flips to December. Head coach Mike Budenholzer has been preaching improvement on that side of the ball since the offseason and isn’t content with Atlanta allowing 104.3 points per night – 25th in the NBA.

The Pelicans pose a moderate threat on the offensive side of the court. New Orleans scored only 89 points in a home loss to Sacramento before the Thanksgiving break and is putting up an average of just over 98 points in its last five games – going 2-3 SU and ATS in that stretch. Hawks forward Paul Millsap will be a handful on both ends of the floor for Pelicans star center Anthony Davis, who scored just 14 points while playing under the weather against the Kings.

Atlanta’s efficient offense and home-court edge over a road weary Pelicans team is why I’m playing on Atlanta as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

I am playing on STANFORD. The Cardinal have had UCLA’s number recently with wins in the last six meetings while they covered the spread in five of those. 
All the pressure sits squarely on UCLA and the Bruins have one eye on the Pac-12 Championship Game after beating USC for the third straight year last week in a monstrous win for the school. UCLA’s sensational dual threat QB Brett Hundley proved he’s already looking ahead by indicating in an interview with Jim Rome this week he likely won’t return to UCLA for his senior season. 
Stanford is a physical team that owns the best defense by far in the Pac-12 this season and for those reasons, it is about the last team you want to see if you are looking ahead – or behind for that matter, which could be the case here. The Cardinal rank in the top 10 in the nation in total defense, passing efficiency defense and scoring defense. Only Oregon and Arizona State have scored more than 17 points against them in regulation time in Pac-12 play this season. 
The Cardinal are also feeling confident on offense after scoring 38 in a win over Cal last week. Remound Wright rushed for four touchdowns to help the Cardinal match their highest point total of the season in conference play. 
Another factor I like in what I anticipate to be a close game is Stanford owns the No. 1 punt return unit in the entire nation. With a stout defense and a strong punt return unit, the offense could be working with favorable field position against this unfocused Bruins team. 10* Best Bet – Stanford

I’m playing on the San Francisco 49ers as my 10* Game of the Week Thursday. The Niners are hitting their stride at the right time and welcome the rival Seattle Seahawks to Levis Stadium for what is the biggest game of the year for San Francisco and its new digs on Thanksgiving Day.

San Francisco brings momentum into this NFC West war, winning three in a row after taking care of the Washington Redskins last week. The 49ers defense is beginning to round into form with the return of Aldon Smith anchoring the linebacking corps.

The Niners have allowed an average of just 15.7 points over their last three, putting the clamps down on opposing passers in that span. San Francisco is limiting opponents to 209.7 yards through the air during that winning streak, posting nine sacks and seven interceptions in those games.

Seattle has four wins in its last five, suffering that lone loss to Kansas City two weeks ago, but those victories have come against lesser opponents. The Seahawks took down Carolina, New York and Oakland – who have a combined record of 7-25-1 – and then beat up Arizona, which was without its starting QB and top WR.

The Seattle offense will lean a lot on RB Marshawn Lynch Thursday but with a short week and an ailing back, the burden may be too much for Lynch to handle. He rushed for only 39 yards on 15 carries versus the Cardinals and was held out of the end zone for the second straight week. San Francisco’s defense is allowing only 92.9 yards on the ground per game.

A peaking Niners squad at home and a Seahawks team fat off of cupcake opponents is why I’m playing on San Francisco as my 10* Game of the Week Thursday.

I’m playing on the New Orleans Saints as my 10* Monday Main Event. The Saints have dropped back-to-back games inside the Superdome – an almost unheard of feat in recent seasons. New Orleans is out to stay in the division hunt in the log-jammed NFC South and host a Ravens team struggling away from Baltimore.

This Monday Night Football showdown is setting up nicely for the Saints, who play their best football at home on the primetime stage. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six Monday nighters and has outscored opponents 160-70 in its last four home Monday night games – an average difference of 22.5 points per game.

Baltimore has lost two straight road games – at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati – and is 1-3 SU away from home in its last four outside of Maryland. The Ravens defense is allowing 379.4 yards per road game – compared to just 292 yards against at home – with those gains translating into 25.6 points against – compared to only 10.6 at home.

On offense, Ravens QB Joe Flacco has faded in the second half of the schedule. He’s completed under 60 percent of his passes and has a touchdown-to-interception count of 5-5 in the last four games. Flacco has been flustered by blitz packages and will see plenty of bodies coming after him with Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan unleashing his dogs Monday night.

A desperate Saints squad that shines on the MNF stage and a rough road record for the Ravens is why I’m playing on New Orleans as my 10* Monday Main Event.

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Raptors are getting more attention than just about anyone would have projected at this point in the early season and as a result we're going to start seeing their lines inflate.  I feel that's the case Monday night at home when they're laying a handful against the smoking-hot Suns. The Suns have won four in a row and I expect them to pour everything they have into their final game of a six-game road trip in Toronto.  Phoenix is playing fantastic team basketball right now and using a deep bench to stay fresh during the club's travels. Head coach Jeff Hornacek said "There is something about being on the road" after Saturday's win over Indiana and talked about how his team is finding its groove.  Gerald Green scored a game-high 23 points against the Pacers while Isaiah Thomas chipped in with 16 with both players coming off the bench. No player saw more than 26 minutes on Saturday night, which is why I fully expect the Suns to maintain top speed tonight.  Phoenix is the fourth leading scoring team in the NBA with 105.3 points per game and they are the best free throw shooting team. They also hold the edge in rebounding margin over the Raptors, who are one of the worst rebounding squads in the league with a margin of -2.31.   I like the Suns to get it done against a slightly overvalued Raptors team and I'll take the points while I can get them. This is just the third time all year Phoenix has been an underdog. 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the New York Jets as a 10* Monday. It’s been a rough week for the Buffalo Bills, who lose their home-field edge thanks to a massive snow storm that pushed this AFC East showdown from Sunday to Monday in Detroit.

The weather issues in Western New York took the focus off football for the Bills, who were left up in the air about practice and game schedule until the middle of the week. Instead of having a decisive home-field advantage with the winter weather in Week 12, Buffalo is on a neutral field when it faces the Jets, who have had two weeks to prepare for this game after enjoying a bye in Week 11.

New York’s ground game will love the fast track inside Ford Field, giving solid footing to a rushing game that ranks fourth in the NFL – averaging 140.8 yards per game. New York rumbled for 150 yards in their stunning win over Pittsburgh two weeks ago, handing the ball off 36 times. The Bills gave up 125 yards on 24 carries in their loss to Miami – an average of 5.2 yards per run.

Buffalo was able to put up big passing numbers against the Jets defense in Week 8, with Kyle Orton connecting for four touchdowns. New York is eager to get a second shot at Orton, who has regressed in recent outings. He’s completed just over 58 percent of his passes and has only one touchdown in his last two games – both of them losses.

Buffalo’s bad week and the Jets rushing game enjoying a clean neutral site is why I’m playing on the New York Jets as a 10* Monday.

I’m playing on the New York Giants as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. New York is coming off a miserable showing against San Francisco, but despite Eli Manning’s five interceptions the G-Men actually had a chance to win the game in the dying minutes of the fourth quarter. The Giants stay home for this Sunday Night showdown with the Dallas Cowboys, and would love to throw a wrench in Big D’s playoff plans.

New York gave Dallas a good fight in their first meeting, never letting the Cowboys feel comfortable in that Week 7 clash in Arlington. The Giants have a decisive home edge versus Dallas Sunday night, with rain in the forecast making for some slick field conditions and temperatures dipping into the low 40s. The Cowboys have shown in the past that they’re not used to playing in the elements.

The Giants also catch the Cowboys looking ahead to next Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles. That matinee meeting will go a long way in deciding the division. Dallas has a short week to prepare for that matchup, so focus could be split between Sunday night and what lies ahead on Turkey Day.

New York’s defense did a good job limiting San Francisco’s passing game in Week 11. Colin Kaepernick completed just 15 of 29 passes for 193 yards, and the Niners converted on third down just six of 14 times. The Giants are in the top half of the league in third down defense, allowing opponents to convert on just 39.53 percent of third down tries. That should stump the Dallas offense, which is among the best in the NFL at keep the chains moving, boasting a third down conversion percentage of 50.77.

A tough road spot for the Cowboys and a Giants defense looking to build off a underrated performance is why I’m playing on New York as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the Seattle Seahawks as my 10* Best of the Best Sunday. The defending Super Bowl champs don’t have time to lick their wounds after losing to the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday. That’s a good thing for Seattle backers, as this team is chomping at the bit to get back on the field and prove they’re still top dog in the NFC against the conference-leading Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals offense showed just how lifeless it can be without Carson Palmer at the wheel. Arizona managed just 14 points against the Detroit Lions last week, scoring two first-quarter touchdowns and then proceeding to get shutout in the final 45 minutes. Backup Drew Stanton’s wheels wobbled late in the game with two interceptions. Seattle will focus on getting more pressure on the untested Stanton at home Sunday.

Speaking of home, the Seahawks will have the 12th Man amped for this NFC West clash. The home team has covered in 11 of the past 15 meetings between these rivals and the forecast in CenturyLink Field is calling for classic Seattle weather, rain and cold, which should make the Cardinals very uncomfortable.

The Seahawks have the ground game to wear down Arizona’s defense over the course of four quarters. Marshawn Lynch rolled over the Chiefs' stout stop unit for 124 yards but couldn’t crack the end zone, putting a damper on what could have been another huge day from Beast Mode. Lynch had 91 yards and a touchdown versus the Cardinals at home last season.

A motivated Seahawks side at home and a backup QB facing the dreaded 12th Man is why I’m playing on Seattle as my 10* Best of the Best Sunday.

I am playing on UCLA. The Bruins control their own destiny in winning their first conference championship since 1998 and I believe they’ll get the win and cover at home against USC on Saturday. 
I feel the Bruins will grab their third straight victory over USC because I believe they’re the better coached team with a better quarterback. UCLA has been beating opponents this year by however it needs to using the nation’s No. 17 overall offense to win through the air or with a sturdy rushing game, depending on what the defense gives them. 
Case in point is UCLA beat Arizona 17-7 two games ago by running the ball 59 times for 271 yards. The Bruins controlled possession and used a slower tempo than what we see normally from them. Then last week, QB Brett Hundley was back to airing it out and went 29-of-36 for 302 yards and two TD passes in a 44-30 win over Washington. 
Hundley is one of the best quarterbacks in UCLA history – not to mention in the nation this season - who can beat you with his legs or his arm and doesn’t mind changing up the game plan to get the ‘W’. He and a very solid UCLA offensive line are the reasons why the Bruins own the No. 1 red zone offense in the entire country this season. 
UCLA comes into this game off a bye week, so the Bruins are well rested and are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games coming off a bye. I don’t think the Trojans will be able to stop them and I anticipate we’ll see the Bruins earn their third straight win and cover against their city rivals. 10* Saturday Main Event

OKLAHOMA STATE at BAYLOR  I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. I believe oddsmakers have inflated this spread way too much for a Baylor team that’s trendy to cheer for right now against an Oklahoma State team that many are loving to criticize right now.  While the Cowboys have been underdogs this season, they haven’t been  underdogs of within two touchdowns of this week’s number and I feel they’re going to give Baylor an effort that may surprise some.  What I like is that there is no panic in the Cowboys, which is essential because head coach Mike Gundy knows many of his team’s offensive challenges come from a young offensive line that will take time to develop.  “I’m not sure anger and frustration is a positive resource for improvement,” a calm Gundy told reporters after his team’s fourth straight loss last week.  Gundy has managed to keep the focus on him this week also, which has turned some attention away from his struggling units on the field. Oklahoma State legend Boone Pickens said this week that he cheers for the Cowboys and “I don’t care who coaches ‘em”. That has everyone in Stillwater talking about an inferred snub of their coach and it means his players aren’t reading about how bad they are in every local news story.  Gundy has been a master in the past of getting his players to pull for him and I believe that’s what will happen on Saturday in a spot where  oddsmakers are being very generous with the points. 9* Saturday Shocker

I am playing on ARIZONA. The Wildcats still have hopes of winning the Pac-12 South and I like that motivator, among other things, to propel them to a win on Saturday while preventing them from looking ahead to state rival Arizona State in their season finale. 
Arizona pulled out a 27-26 win over Washington last week by the skin of its teeth and I love that the team went right back to work the next day to sort out the offensive troubles it ran into during the game. 
Head coach Rich Rodriguez hauled his QB and receivers into the film room before practice on Sunday to get the Wildcats’ normally prolific passing game straightened out. 
“It wasn’t really enjoyable for them or for me,” Rodriquez told the Airzona Daily Star this week. “I told them that my expectations are so much higher for them than anyone else’s. We owe it to each other to be as sound and efficient and clean as far as doing your assignments as best as possible.” 
I like the Wildcats to be refocused again this Saturday, especially against a Utah team they out-match statistically. Arizona brings the nation’s No. 14 passing defense to go up against the Utes’ 87th ranked passing defense, which is where I believe Arizona will really pull away in this one. 
Utah has somehow managed to cover the spread in six of its last eight games despite the fact the Utes lost the yardage battle in all eight of those games. That’s not something you see very often in pro or college football and I think the Utes’ luck runs out this Saturday against a very solid Wildcats team – especially considering Utah is giving away points this week where they were underdogs in six of their past eight games.  10* Saturday Afternoon Best Bet

I am playing on NOTRE DAME. The Irish have won and covered the spread in four straight Senior Day games and I believe they’ll make it a fifth in a row on Saturday during the school’s first game ever against Louisville. 
Notre Dame is 5-1 at home this year and the school always has the benefit of an especially electric home crowd for their final home game of the season. 
Another problem I see for the Cardinals is they’re a team that prefers to win with tough defense this year and I don’t feel they’ll be able to slow down a Notre Dame offense that has been held to fewer than 31 points only twice and fewer than 27 points just once.  The Irish have also been at their most prolific on offense over their past three games where they averaged 40 points and over 500 yards. 
If this game does turn into a high scoring affair, Louisville is going to have to try to keep up without its No. 1 quarterback, Will Gardner. Gardner was lost for the season last week to a knee injury and freshman Reggie Bonnafon will be left to man the offense. 
Bonnafon goes up against an opportunistic Irish defense that has 15 interceptions this year, which ranks 10th in the country. I won’t be surprised to see the Louisville QB cough up at least one or two picks as a freshman playing in the overwhelming atmosphere of South Bend for the first time. 
Notre Dame is 2-1 straight up and against the spread this season against ACC teams with the lone loss coming against No. 1 ranked Florida State. 10* Saturday Afternoon Personal Favorite

10* Analysis to come before 7AM on game day

I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA. Last week I successfully faded Duke by releasing a play on Virginia Tech and I believe the Blue Devils are laying too many points once again this week in their annual Tobacco Road showdown.

Besides having a dangerous offense that ranks 23rd in the nation in scoring, UNC is a team that causes turnovers and I feel that turnovers are going to be a huge factor in this game. The Tar Heels have recovered nine fumbles and picked off 11 passes this season and have forced at least one turnover in every game they’ve played.

Duke, meanwhile, is coming off its worst turnover performance of the season after coughing the ball up three times against Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils seemingly fell apart in every aspect against the Hokies including missing two field goals by a perfect field goal kicker this season and they gave up four sacks after giving up just four all season combined.

They won’t get away with more sloppy play against a UNC team that is playing its best football of the year with three wins in its last four games. The Heels also have a ton of motivation for this game. A win Thursday night would secure bowl eligibility for them and end arch rival Duke’s hopes of winning the ACC Coastal Division.  10* Thursday Best Bet - UNC  

I am playing on WEST VIRGINIA. I feel the Mountaineers are being a little undervalued here by oddsmakers Thursday night after two straight losses.

Those losses were to a Big-12 leading TCU squad on a last-second field goal and to a vastly improved Texas team that faced the Mountaineers while I believe they were facing a bit of a hangover from the TCU loss.

WVU is still a very good team despite the losses and I believe they’ll be propelled by an incredible home atmosphere on Senior Night in front of a national TV audience. The Mountaineers have used a bye week to shake off the sting of the two-game slide and to get healthy while preparing for another tough opponent.

One of the key matchups that has me liking West Virginia here is its outstanding passing game against a so-so pass defense for K-State. WVU ranks 12th in the country with 318 passing yards per game and the team has five receivers with at least 200 yards this year. One of the few weaknesses on this Wildcats team is its pass defense where it ranks 56th in the nation in passing yards allowed and 63rd in the nation in passing efficiency defense.

I expect this game to be another exciting one for West Virginia but the determining factor for me is the Mountaineers’ top strength is playing against what I feel is K-State’s biggest weakness. That adds up to what I believe is a very strong play. 10* Thursday Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Denver Nuggets as my 10* Revenge Best of the Best Wednesday. The Nuggets get a chance to even the score with the Oklahoma City Thunder Wednesday, hosting OKC after losing to the Thunder 102-91 on the road earlier this month.

The Nuggets are back home in the Pepsi Center after a three-game Eastern Conference road trip that was highlighted by a victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers Monday night. Denver took a 106-97 win, returning the favor for a 110-101 home loss to the Cavs on Nov. 7. Revenge is something this Nuggets team is used to dishing out.

The Thunder face a tough schedule spot Wednesday. They’re playing the second game of a back-to-back after tangling with the Utah Jazz Tuesday night. On top of that, this a three-in-four-night spot for Oklahoma City, having lost to the Houston Rockets Sunday, and OKC climbs the Rocky Mountains and will be feeling extra fatigued in the thin air in Denver.

That frantic schedule and tough road date in Colorado compounds the Thunder’s thinning roster right now. Injuries have not only taken away their two top scorers – Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook – but reserves like Perry Jones and Andre Roberson are out of action, leaving OKC running on fumes in this spot.

A Nuggets team out for revenge and a road-weary Thunder squad sucking wind in the Pepsi Center is why I’m playing on Denver as my 10* Revenge Best of the Best Wednesday.

I am playing on NEW YORK. The Knicks finally snapped their streak of futility after seven games with a win over the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. I like the Knicks to continue their winning ways Tuesday night in Milwaukee and they even have a few points to work with as the underdog.

New York is finally showing signs of life in its new and much talked about triangle offense implemented by coach Derek Fisher this season. The Knicks managed 100 points or more in each of their last two games, which were the first games they reached triple digits all season.  

“Every game I'm starting to become a little bit more comfortable with my role,” Carmelo Anthony said after the game.

Anthony poured in 28 points and had just 14 field goal attempts on Sunday and he’s made 20 of his past 27 shots over his last six quarters for 58 points. With Anthony playing more effectively, J.R. Smith had his best game of the year Sunday also with 28 points of his own.

I don’t feel oddsmakers quite believe the Knicks have sorted out their woes yet, which is why we’re getting a good number on New York here on Tuesday. I expect the cat to be out of the bag in another game or two and every NBA bettor will soon know the Knicks have found their offensive rhythm. 10* Best Bet - Knicks

I am playing on MEMPHIS. The Grizzlies have won 19 straight games at home and catch Houston in a great spot on home court on Monday.  The Rockets are playing the second game in a back-to-back situation after facing Oklahoma City last night and this is their third game in four nights. Houston did try to use its bench at OKC in a game in which they scored just 69 points, but their two stars James Harden and Dwight Howard each played over 37 minutes apiece.  I believe that’s an especially tough spot for Howard, who will face his toughest post challenge of the season with the Grizzlies’ duo of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. The pair have helped lead Memphis to a 9-1 start to the season and are a huge reason why they lead the NBA in points allowed at 91.3 and rank fourth in defensive efficiency.  Memphis is also getting fantastic back court play right now from point guard Mike Conley, who’s average six assists and almost 17 points per game. The return of Courtney Lee on Nov. 5 has been a huge help also. He’s averaging 15.5 points on 53.3 percent shooting in the six games since his return.  A defensive stalwart on the road is a brutal matchup for the Rockets during this grinding stretch of their schedule. I believe Memphis will continue its winning ways at home and cover the small number set by oddsmakers. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Indianapolis Colts as a 10* Sunday Night Football Main Event. Indianapolis can get some revenge on the New England Patriots at home in this marquee matchup Sunday night and also stake its claim as the team to beat in the AFC.

The Colts bowed out of the playoff last season, losing 43-22 to the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in the AFC Divisional Round this past January. Indianapolis hasn’t forgotten that loss and will be looking at Sunday as a true test of where it stands in the conference picture.

Andrew Luck hasn’t had much success against the Patriots in the past, especially when it comes to limiting his turnovers. However, both head-to-head meetings came in New England. This time around, Luck is peaking and playing inside the comfortable domed confines of Lucas Oil Stadium.

Both of these offense are going to try and chew up as much time off the clock in order to freeze out the other. And while both have the potential to dominate time of possession, the Colts have a much better running game than the Patriots do at this point. Ahmad Bradshaw is a threat to run or catch for gains and Trent Richardson can punishing opposing tacklers with his smash-mouth style of running.

A revenge-fueled Colts side dominating the football with plenty of weapons is why I’m playing on Indianapolis as a 10* Sunday Night Football Main Event.

I’m playing the St. Louis Rams as my 9* Breakfast Club Sunday. The Rams have shown a tendency to play up to their competition, hanging with the NFL’s elite in those tough games. St. Louis faces just that in Week 11, playing a Denver Broncos club taking to the road for the third straight week.

The Rams had the Arizona Cardinals on their heels last week, jumping out to a 14-10 lead before succumbing to the Cardinals defense and losing a lopsided game. However, that fight is nothing new for St. Louis, which has taken wins over NFC powers San Francisco and the defending champion Seattle Seahawks in recent weeks.

The Broncos come to St. Louis weary from the road. This will be their third straight away game, after losing at New England on Sunday night three weeks ago and rolling Oakland in the Bay Area last Sunday. Denver hasn’t been that sharp away from Mile High, suffering their two losses on the road.

The Broncos are putting up 28.2 points per road game – nearly a touchdown less than at home – and QB Peyton Manning is completing 64.5 percent of his passes in enemy territory, compared to 71.2 percent inside Sports Authority Field. Five of his seven total interceptions have come on the road as well.

He’ll go up against a Rams pass rush that has unleashed hell in the last four games after a very slow start to the year. St. Louis has 16 sacks in that span, including an eight-sack effort in the win over the 49ers three weeks ago. Pro Bowl DE Robert Quinn was held without a sack through the first five games but has erupted for six sacks in the last four contests.

A hard-nosed Rams team ramping up the pass rush versus a road-weary Broncos side is why I’m playing on St. Louis as my 9* Breakfast Club Sunday.

I’m playing on the New York Giants as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Giants are back home hosting a San Francisco 49ers team bound for a letdown after pulling off a come-from-behind overtime victory in New Orleans last week. On top of that, the Niners have to cross the country for this early 1 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday.

The 49ers needed some magic and help from the officials in their much-needed win over the Saints. San Francisco’s offense sputtered again late in the game, managing only three points in the second half versus New Orleans. On the year, the Niners are averaging only 6.2 points in the final two quarters – last in the NFL – including just 2.9 points per fourth quarter.

This will be San Francisco’s second straight road game, a situation that cost them a head-turning loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 7. The Niners not only deal with that schedule spot but also an early start time on the East Coast. This 1 p.m. ET kickoff is at 10 a.m. back in the Bay Area against a Giants team that has won five of the last six encounters with San Francisco, including the last two meetings in East Rutherford.

New York has its back against a wall after a loss in Seattle last week. The Giants have dropped four straight games but three of those have come away from MetLife Stadium. The G-Men are happy to be home, where they average more than five points more per game and QB Eli Manning has passed for 793 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last three home stands.

A sputtering Niners offense making a cross-country trip to face a home-happy Giants squad is why I’m playing on New York as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the Chicago Bears as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. Chicago is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Packers on Sunday Night Football and desperately needs a win. Enter the Minnesota Vikings, who have struggled in recent trips to Soldier Field.

The Bears have been backed into a corner after Sunday’s beatdown at the hands of the rival Packers. They’ve lost three straight and five of their last six going back to Week 4. This Chicago team was supposed to compete for the NFC title and its running out of time to make a run at the wild card.

The Bears’ biggest problem has been their slow starts, digging an early hole that they’re unable to claw out of. After Sunday’s loss, in which Chicago allowed 42 first-half points to the Packers, the Bears have been outscored 94-7 through the first two quarters during their current three-game slide.

Luckily, for Chicago, the Vikings have been ice cold in the opening quarters, averaging just 8.1 points per first half this season. Minnesota has been slow out of the blocks even in their last two games – both wins – scoring a combined 10 points in the first halves of those outings. Overall, the Vikings offense ranks 26th in the NFL - 18.7 points per game.

Minnesota has lost five in a row in the Windy City, going back to 2009, and has managed to cover in only one of those trips. Mother Nature could be playing into those woes for the Vikings, with the forecast calling for cold and a chance of snow in Chicago Sunday.

A desperate Bears team at home taking on a slow-starting Vikings side is why I’m playing on Chicago as my 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as a 10* Situational Best of the Best Saturday. The Clippers have enjoyed an extended break, with their last game coming five days ago. That’s a much-needed hiatus after an inconsistent start to the year. Los Angeles will have fresh legs against the Phoenix Suns, who are playing the second half of back-to-back games Saturday night.

The Suns roll into L.A. fresh off a home loss to the Charlotte Hornets Friday night. Phoenix, which will be playing its third game in four nights Saturday, crumbled in the fourth quarter after having a one-point lead, giving up 29 points to the Hornets in the final frame. The Suns have allowed opponents to top the 100-point plateau in six of their last seven games and rank 24th in the league in defense.

The Clippers hope the time off worked out the kinks in their offense. Los Angeles is shooting 44.9 percent from the field and averaging just over 100 points per game, after posting 108 points per outing in 2013 – tied for tops in the NBA.The Clippers won’t need too much extra in the points department to edge a weary Suns team, about to tip off a six-game road trip which will send them East for most of the month.

This situational matchup, with the Clippers well rested and the Suns going back-to-back nights, is why I’m playing on Los Angeles as a 10* Situational Best of the Best Saturday.

I am playing on ARKANSAS. Every SEC team that played the Razorbacks this season left the field wiping its brow and letting out a humongous sigh of relief. 
That’s because they know how lucky they were to come away with wins after facing this steadily improving Arkansas team that is desperately fighting to end a now 17-game SEC losing streak. And that includes a No. 1 ranked Misssissippi State squad, who escaped with a 17-10 win against the Hogs in which the Bulldogs trailed at halftime. It was the fourth time this year that Arkansas has either led or been tied in the second half of a game and went on to lose. 
“These guys never quit,” Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema told reporters this week.” I think they have shown that all year long; it's not an option in our program."
I agree and I believe we’ll see the heartbreak finally end for Arkansas on Saturday and we are fading LSU after successfully doing the same last week. The Razorbacks enter this game coming off a bye while LSU tries to shake off a devastating loss to Alabama last week in which the Tide kicked a field goal with three seconds left to send the game to overtime. 
I believe Arkansas will grind LSU down over the course of the game using its 16th nationally ranked rushing offense. The Razorbacks also rank No. 2 in the nation in time of possession and I think we’ll start to see the fatigue set in for the Tigers in the second half when I believe Arkansas will pull away. 
One final note: Arkansas is among the best bets in the nation at 7-2 against the spread and the Hogs have lost the yardage battle in a game only twice this year, by fewer than 60 yards each time.  10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on STANFORD.  The Cardinal need one more win to become bowl eligible, they are seeking revenge after losing to Utah last season, and Saturday marks their last home game of the season. 
So they have all the motivational boxes checked off but I also happen to believe they’re better than the Utes and good enough to cover the number. 
Stanford has the upper hand because of its defense, which I feel  will propel them to the convincing win. The Cardinal rank 11th in the country in rushing defense, fifth in the country in total defense, sixth in passing defense and fourth in scoring defense. 
That is the last thing Utah wants to hear right now because the Utes have lost the yardage battle in seven straight games. It’s kind of a minor miracle that the Utes managed to win four of those contests but I feel their luck runs out against Stanford this week. 
The Cardinal are coming off a bye week and have had plenty of time to study Utah’s habits. I feel they’re going to give the Utes plenty of trouble especially with a struggling Utah passing game. 
The Utes average fewer than 200 yards passing per game and have been out-gained through the air by some big margins in six of their last eight games.  It hasn’t helped that top receiver Dres Anderson was lost for the season two games ago. 
I don’t think Utah will be able to bail out with its normally stout rushing game against this suffocating defense, which is why I like the Cardinal in this afternoon Pac-12 tilt. *10 Conference GOY

I am playing on ALABAMA.  I am taking the Tide for the second straight week after successfully taking them last week over LSU. 
Bama has gone from a team to avoid after going 1-5 against the spread to start the season to 2-1 ATS over its past three games. Mississippi State, meanwhile, has been exactly the opposite after failing to cover in three straight games, though the Bulldogs continue to win games and the yardage battles in the box score. 
Keep in mind here that oddsmakers know how appealing it looks to the betting public that the No. 1 ranked team in the nation, Miss State, was given a touchdown on the opening line. For many, that will be too irresistible to pass up but I believe Alabama will pull out the cover on home field. 
The Tide continues to jell more every game on offense under offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and that was never so evident as last game in overtime against LSU. Bama called a surprise passing play to former offensive lineman Brandon Greene, who caught the pass and plowed his way to the 1-yard line on the first play of overtime. It was the first reception of his career and gives some insight to the kind of confidence Alabama is feeling right now.  
Both teams are stacked with impressive statistics and playmakers on both sides of the ball. But I feel that defense wins tough games in the SEC and Alabama holds the edge in this game. The Tide own the No. 3 rushing defense and No. 2 scoring defense, just to point out a couple of numbers.  10* Saturday Afternoon Main Event

I’m playing on the New York Knicks as a 10* Personal Favorite Friday. The Knicks welcome a road weary Utah Jazz team to Madison Square Garden and try to snap a six-game losing slide in what is shaping up to be a must-win game for New York.

The Knicks have stumbled out of the blocks, falling back in the Eastern Conference standings. New York’s offense has struggled to find its form in head coach Derek Fisher’s new triangle offense, coming into Friday ranked among the bottom of the league in scoring. However, star forward Carmelo Anthony is starting to heat up – scoring 27 points on 10-of-17 shooting in the loss to Orlando - and can spark this offense if he finds his stroke.

The Jazz may be the perfect opponents to help New York end this slide. Utah’s defense is giving up 102.2 points per game to start the season, and allowed Atlanta to shoot better than 51 percent from the field in their loss to the Hawks Wednesday. On the other side of the floor, the Jazz don’t pose much of an offensive threat to the Knicks, managing just 90.5 points per game over their last four contest.

New York has owned Utah in recent meetings, having covered the spread in 20 of their previous 26 head-to-head battles, including a 9-0 ATS winning streak against the Jazz inside MSG.

A desperate Knicks teams and a road-weary Jazz side is why I’m playing on New York as a 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

I am playing on CAL. The Golden Bears haven’t beating USC since 2003 and at I believe the Trojans should be nervous about this year’s game even though it is at Los Angeles Coliseum. 

The reason is Cal brings one of the best quarterbacks and overall passing games in the nation and it will face a USC secondary that is neither incredible nor entirely healthy.  

USC ranks 101st in the nation in passing yards allowed per game Freshman starting safety John Plattenburg has a Charlie horse and is expected to be a game-time decision on Thursday. Outside linebacker/safety and arguably the team’s best defensive standout, Su'a Cravens, is expected to play but he suffered an MCL sprain in the last game against Washington State. 

I feel Bears quarterback Jared Goff will be able to keep Cal in this game and maybe even give them a shot at winning it. He ranks  fourth in the nation with 3,119 passing yards and is four passing TDs away from tying a single-season record at Cal. Goff has only four interceptions compared to 10 last year and what makes him so dangerous is the way he spreads the ball around. Cal has six receivers with at least 20 catches this season. 

The Golden Bears are 4-0 against the spread on the road this season and I feel oddsmakers are being far to nice to them once again for this Pac-12 showdown. 10* Thursday Best Bet

I am playing on EAST CAROLINA. I like the Pirates to come away from Cincinnati with a win on Thursday for two main reasons. 

The first is that just about anywhere you look, the Pirates stack up better statistically. The second is that ECU is coming off one of its most baffling losses in recent school memory and I believe the Pirates will be extra hungry for a win against the Bearcats. 

There’s no real need to go through every statistic but ECU’s numbers are better than Cincy’s when you stack them up in just about every category on offense and defense. The Pirates have the No. 4 total offense and the No. 3 passing offense in the nation but the number I feel might have the biggest impact on Thursday is the Pirates’ rush defense. 

ECU’s rush defense ranks eighth in the country and allows just 96.8 yards per game. That will be key against a Cincy offense that used a run game to propel the team to a win over Tulane last week. The Bearcats had two 100-yard rushers in that contest for the first time in a game since 2003, which was a huge benefit for QB Munchie Legaux. Legaux is now the starting QB in place of Gunner Kiel, who has been bothered by a rib injury for several weeks. 

I don’t believe Legaux will have the comfort level he did against Tulane where a running game opened up the field and made passing easier. I expect ECU to stall the rush and put a tighter squeeze on executing an air assault. 

ECU is coming off a tough 20-10 loss to Temple and the baffling part is the Pirates never really threatened to win the game despite outgaining the Owls by 293 yards. Five turnovers in sloppy weather killed ECU in the end and I expect the Pirates to take better care of the ball against Cincy. 

The Pirates are 11-0 ATS following a straight up loss and they have outgained their opponents in yards in all eight of their games this season.  9* Thursday Roast 

I am playing on the KNICKS. While New York is still struggling to find any sort of rhythm, the good news is that the Knicks are catching the right team at the right time to get back on track.  The Magic are coming off an excruciating loss to the Raptors last night during which they held a double-digit lead at one point. Orlando collapsed in the final quarter and was outscored 32-17 to lose 104-100.  “It’s very hard, but it’s basketball,” guard Evan Fournier said after the loss. “I feel like I’m saying the same stuff for five games: We play good and we have a little stretch where we just don’t pay attention to the details, and that’s basically where we lose the game.” Magic coach Jaque Vaughn had to play his starters more than he likely would’ve wanted to in a back-to-back situation with four of his starting five playing at least 39 minutes each. But the Magic were desperately trying to salvage the win and managing for tonight’s game against the Knicks went out the window.  I believe the Knicks will be able to take advantage of a fatigued and demoralized Magic squad on home court tonight. Orlando went  5-13 in the second game of back-to-backs last season and the Knicks have won and covered nine of the last 10 meetings with Orlando. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday. The Magic head north of the border to face the Toronto Raptors Tuesday night. Toronto has jumped out to a strong start to the season but has built that record against some softer opponents.

The Raptors added another tick to their win column with a blowout over Philadelphia Sunday. Toronto is surprising some with its 6-1 record to open the year but a quick glance at who those victories have come against will make you think twice about Toronto’s elite status.

The Raptors have puffed up their odds with wins over the hapless Sixers, Celtics, Hawks and Tuesday’s opponents the Magic, and taken advantage of teams missing key players – Wizards and Thunder. Those six clubs have a combined record of 14-25 and Washington is currently the only one over .500.

Unlike the overvalued Raptors, the Magic have been very undervalued in their recent outings. Orlando has covered in three of its last four games – all of those ATS wins coming as an underdog. The Magic have done a good job defending in that span, giving up just over 96 points in regulation in those four contests. That’s a major improvement on Orlando’s season average of 101 points against.

The Raptors’ soft opening schedule and the Magic’s new-found defense is why I’m playing on Orlando as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Carolina Panthers as my 10* MNF Main Event Monday. The Panthers are hungry for a win after going without a victory since early October. They clash with a Philadelphia Eagles team putting a backup QB under center against one of the NFL’s toughest defenses.

Mark Sanchez is the man in the City of Brotherly Love, whether Eagles faithful like it or not. An injury to starter Nick Foles has the former Jets QB in the spotlight. Sanchez looked brilliant at moments in relief of Foles last weekend but was picked off twice in the win over Houston.

This Chip Kelly offense is all about timing, something Sanchez and his first-team targets haven’t worked on much. Add to that poor chemistry and Carolina team that will bring pressure to put Sanchez on his heels.

The Panthers have gone up against three top teams – Green Bay, Seattle and New Orleans – the last three weeks, facing three Super Bowl winning quarterbacks in three straight losses. Carolina actually did a good job against New Orleans QB Drew Brees and takes a major step down versus Sanchez.

The Panthers have the patience and ground game to slow down the Eagles’ up-tempo attack. This rushing attack has been limited in recent games with Carolina playing from behind and forced to abandon the run at times. However, the Panthers combo of RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart is finally healthy and, along with Cam Newton’s ability to scramble, should allow them to chew up the turf – and clock – icing Philadelphia’s offense on the sideline.

The Eagles’ QB issues and a Panthers team hungry for a win is why I’m playing on Carolina as my 10* MNF Main Event Monday.

I’m playing on the Phoenix Suns as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. Phoenix is at home hosting a Golden State Warriors side coming off a huge game against the Houston Rockets Saturday night.

Golden State will be ripe for a letdown after mixing it up with the Western Conference-leading Rockets. Back-to-back games will have the Warriors up-tempo offense a step slower, which will benefit a Phoenix side rested up and motivated after a crushing loss to Sacramento in two overtimes Friday night.

The Suns are planning on picking up the pace with their offense – perfect timing to put Golden State on its heels. Phoenix opened that loss to Sacramento with a 36-point first quarter before pumping the breaks the rest of the game. Head coach Jeff Hornacek liked what he saw in that opening frame and is telling his backcourt to pick up the pace instead of walking into the offense.

The Suns have the horses to match the Warriors' pace, scoring an average of 103.2 points per game to start the season. Phoenix has covered in four of its previous five meetings with Golden State and has come away as an ATS victor in six of its last eight games versus the Warriors inside US Airways Center.

A letdown spot for the Warriors and the Suns' commitment to pushing the pace is why I’m playing on Phoenix as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the Buffalo Bills as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday. Buffalo is coming off the bye week and hosts a streaking Kansas City Chiefs team that could get caught looking ahead to next week’s date with the defending Super Bowl champs.

The Bills took back-to-back wins into the bye and roll into this game at 5-3 SU, smack in the middle of the postseason wild card hunt in the AFC. Buffalo QB Kyle Orton, who took over as the starter four games ago, has had the extra week to work with his receivers and that should add some punch to this offense, which is trying to overcome injuries to the rushing corps.

Kansas City has had its own issues on offense. The Chiefs are putting up just 22.8 points per game on the road with the passing game struggling to move the chains. Away from Arrowhead, Alex Smith is managing an average of only 196 passing yards and meets a Buffalo defense among the most underrated in the league.

The Bills, under new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, have done a tremendous job limiting opponents’ chances. Buffalo is giving up just 326 yards per game – eighth in the league – and has forced rival offenses to settle for field goal attempts on 45 percent of their trips inside the red zone at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills have been especially stingy against the run, budging for only 3.6 yards per carry – seventh lowest in the NFL – and can put the breaks on Kansas City’s ground game.

That defense could crack an unfocused Kansas City team in the mouth, with the Chiefs riding high on their current three-game streak and looking ahead to Week 11’s showdown with the Seattle Seahawks back in Arrowhead.

An underrated Bills stop unit and an improving passing game is why I’m playing on Buffalo as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday.

Jets. 10* best bet. Analysis before game day 

I’m playing on the Detroit Lions as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. Detroit took a three-game winning streak into the bye week and takes on a Miami Dolphins team that isn’t as good as its own three-game winning run would lead bettors to believe.

The Lions offense is usually the squad getting the headlines but the stop unit is the talk of the town in the Motor City. Detroit ranks No. 1 in yards allowed, giving up only 290 yards per game, and has a dominating front four that is pressuring opposing passers for 23 sacks on the season. Miami has struggled with protection at times and this Lions pass rush can disrupt a Dolphins offense that is finding it form.

Not to be outdone, Detroit offense returns its top weapon in WR Calvin Johnson, who has sat out the previous three games with an ankle injury. Johnson is the lifeblood of this offense, which has struggled without him drawing defenders to his side of the field. Detroit has averaged just over 19 points since he went down. The Lions are also getting dynamic RB Reggie Bush back on the field, another weapons the Miami defense must account for.

The Dolphins come into Week 10 on a three-game tear but have taken those wins over some teams in tough situations. Miami took advantage of a reeling Bears squad with locker room issues, then beat up on the toothless Jaguars, before hosting a Chargers team that traveled cross country for an early kickoff last Sunday.

The Lions defense and its ability to pressure the passer and an offense getting its top target back is why I’m playing on Detroit as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I am playing on ALABAMA. The Crimson Tide have perhaps their best and most balanced offense we’ve seen in years, which is a little scary for LSU and confidence boosting for this pick. 
The Tide rank 11th in total offense in the nation, third in passing efficiency, 18th in scoring offense and stop me when you're getting bored. One of the less publicized elements I like here though is that Bama is one of the very best in the country at moving the chains when they need to and halting the opposition when they need to - which I feel will be huge factors in this game in what is sure to be a gritty SEC battle. Alabama ranks second in the nation in third down conversion percentage on offense and second in the nation in fourth-down conversion defense. 
Those may not seem like huge considerations normally when you're doing your handicapping, but you'll especially notice these elements Saturdaynight in Baton Rouge with a crowd that can blow out your eardrums when both sides of the betting line are desperately in need of either a stop or a first down.
Another reason I like the Tide here is LSU has been winning games lately the good ol' fashioned SEC way - by running the ball and stopping the run – which I don’t believe they’ll be able to do against Alabama. The Tigers won that way in their last game, 10-7, against Ole Miss but I feel they’ll be in trouble if they come in with the same game plan this week and expect to have success. The Tide give up a paltry 77.6 rushing yards per game and are second-best in the nation at stopping the run. 10* MAIN EVENT - ALABAMA 

I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers. Los Angeles is try to erase a bad loss to Golden State when the Clippers host the Portland Trail Blazers Saturday. Los Angeles has stumbled to open the schedule and head coach Doc Rivers ripped into this players, hoping to light a fire for this game.

The Clippers have been terribly inconsistent to start the year, following wins with losses in their last four contests. Los Angeles’ defense isn’t where it needs to be, allowing more than 104 points per game, but Saturday offers a chance to make a statement against a hungry team trying to leapfrog L.A. in the Western Conference.

Portland is coming off two straight wins over Cleveland and Dallas, and is bound for a letdown on the road Saturday. The Blazers offense depends a lot on PG Damian Lillard to create chances, and when he struggles so does Portland. Los Angeles will throw a lot of bodies at Lillard Saturday, using Chris Paul, Jordan Farmar and Chris Douglas-Roberts to disrupt his night.

The Clippers frontcourt duo of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan match up well with Blazers versatile big man LaMarcus Aldridge and have the athletic ability to stay with him inside and out. Aldridge put up just 16 and 20 points in the past two games and will have limited looks Saturday.

The Clippers getting a wake-up call and bad matchups for the Blazers is why I’m playing on Los Angeles. 10*