Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on TEXAS (10* MAIN EVENT). Losing to Maryland was NOT the way that the Longhorns wanted to begin the Tom Herman era. I like the way which they've responded though. They crushed (56-0) a weak SJ State team immediately following the Maryland loss. Next, they very nearly upset a strong USC team, losing 27-24. I like the fact that they had some extra time off from that 9/16 game out on the west coast. Now, the start of Big 12 play represents a "fresh start." Laying two touchdowns at the betting window, the Longhorns won last year's meeting by a score of 27-6. While the Longhorns returned 17 starters from that team, the Cyclones only returned 11. Expect superior talent to win out, the Longhorns scoring their first road win/cover under Herman.

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* GAME OF MONTH). While I won with the Cowboys in their Week 1 win over the Giants, I was far more impressed with the Cardinals, than I was with Dallas, in Week 2. In case, you didn't see it, the Cowboys were crushed 42-17 at Denver. 

To some, it may initialy sound funny to say I was "impressed" with the Cards. After all, they barely beat (16-13 in OT) the Colts, a team which was destroyed by the Rams in Week 1. Sometimes, having to rally from a defiicit, to pull out a close win, can be just what the doctor ordered. I believe that'll prove to be the case for Arizona. This is a talented Cardinal team, one which under-achieved last season. Off a Week 1 loss - and in danger of falling to the lowly Colts - this season already looked in jeopardy. However, the fact that they pulled off the comeback bodes well for them here. 

The Cards have thrived as small home underdogs over the years. This is their home opener and I expect them to be at their best. I'll gladly take the points but am expecting an outright win. 

I'm playing on TCU (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Cowboys have indeed looked impressive. However, I believe this line will prove to be too high. The Frogs, 7-4 ATS their last 11 as road underdogs in the +10.5 to +14 range, have arguably looked every bit as impressive as their hosts. A 3-0 start has seen them outscore opposing teams by an average score of 49 to 14.3. Averaging more than 500 yards of offense themselves, the Frogs are allowing just 265. A 28-7 blowout at Arkansas shows they can win on the road. They're going to come in full of confidence. They're also going to come in with "payback" on their minds, as OSU embarrassed them (at TCU) last year, a game in which the Frogs were favored. The Frogs are 5-2 ATS their last seven as underdogs. I expect them to give the Cowboys all they can handle here, earning AT LEAST another cover. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* MAIN EVENT). Both teams are off impressive wins. The Utes dropped 54 points on SJ State on Saturday night, improving to 3-0 SU/ATS on the season. Averaging 36.7 points, they've allowed 16 or less in all three games. The Wildcats, who were off a tough loss vs. Houston the previous week, were every bit as dominant as the Utes. They bounced back and destroyed UTEP by a 63-16 margin.

One difference is that Arizona's win came on Friday, as opposed to Utah's Saturday night victory. That means Arizona will be playing on a "normal" week while Utah will play on a "short" one. A day doesn't sound like much but it can indeed be significant.

While Utah (barely) won and covered at BYU, the Utes are still 9-15 ATS the last 24 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. 

The Wildcats are an improved team from the one which lost at Utah last season. They upset the Utes here in 2015, as 5-point underdogs, and I expect them to give them all they can handle once again. 

I'm playing on USF (10* ANNIHILATOR). Both teams have had success overall at the betting window in recent seasons. That hasn't been the case so far this year though. Temple is off to an 0-3 ATS (2-1 SU) start. USF earned its first cover last week, improving to 1-2 ATS and 3-0 SU. The home team has won fairly comfortably, each of the last two meetings. Now, the gap between these teams is arguably wider than it has been. USF is loaded with experience and marching towards a New Year's Day bowl. The Bulls also haven't forgotten that these same Owls prevented them from a possible 12-1 season. (The Bulls would finish at 11-2, the only other loss coming vs. Florida State.) The Owls have already shown they can be blown out, losing by 33 at Notre Dame, the only good team they've faced. Payback time on Thursday. 

I'm playing on NYG (10* MAIN EVENT). I successfully played against the Giants last week. However, that was a road game vs. the Cowboys. With all due respect to Stafford and co, a home game vs. the Lions isn't nearly as daunting a task. The Giants, who beat the Lions 17-6 here last December, are well aware of how competitive a league this is. With back-to-back road games on deck, they know they can ill afford to lose this one. Beckham is considered a game-time decision but the assumption is that he'll be ready to go. Even if less than 100%, he'll be a big help. Brandon Marshall did very little in Week 1 and figures to benefit from Beckam's return. Either way, I expect the ground game to also play an important role. In last year's win, the Giants outgained the Lions by a 114-56 margin on the ground. The Giants also entered that game having just played the Cowboys while the Lions were also off a victory. Including that result, the Lions are 6-10 on the road the past two seasons while the Giants are 10-6. That includes a 3-1 SU/ATS mark as home favorites of three or fewer points. Expect homefield to ultimately make the difference, another win and cover for the Giants. 

I'm playing MINNESOTA on the run-line. (+1.5 runs RUN-LINE GAME OF MONTH) I won with the Twins yesterday, a 13-7 victory over Toronto. Facing a Yankee team which lost 6-4 yesterday, I expect the Twins to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Santana tossed six shutout innings in his last start. He gave up just three hits and one walk, while striking out seven. While that was at home, he's also 9-2 with a stellar 2.74 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in 14 road starts. On the other hand, Garcia is 1-5 with a 4.31 ERA in 10 home starts. It should be noted that Garcia has failed to last six complete innings in six straight starts. He's gone five or less in each of the last three. While I like the Twins chances of winning "outright," with each of Garcia's last two starts decided by a single run, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The 49ers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Hawks are much stronger on both sides of the ball, more experienced and (arguably) better coached. This is their home opener, their stadium arguably representing the most "hostile environment" (for visiting teams) in the league. The 49ers were outclassed 23-3 in their opener and that was at home. While the 49ers are 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU) the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range, the Hawks are 11-7 ATS (17-1 SU) the last 18 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. Hawks won 37-18 here last season and 29-13 the previous year. This one could easily be an even bigger rout. 

I'm playing on SD. STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). I believe that this is a very tough spot for Stanford. As you may be aware, the Cardinal gave up more than 600 yards (623) in last week's loss. Granted, that was against a very potent USC team and the Aztecs dont have nearly that type of attack. That said, that type of beating figures to have a lingering effect. That being the case and with UCLA up next, it might be hard to focus on the Aztecs. That figures to be a mistake though; SDSU comes in full of confidence, off b2b double-digit wins to start the season. Confidence breeds success. At least it has for this team in the recent past. The Aztecs are 13-2 SU and 11-3 ATS the last 15 times that they were off b2b SU victories. With Stanford just 2-5-1 ATS its last eight, as a road favorite in the -7.5 to -10 range, I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on CINCINNATI (10* MAIN EVENT). These teams have faced each other each of the past two seasons. In each case, the Texans won a close one. I like the Bengals chances of avenging those losses on Thursday. Both teams struggled mightily in their opener. The Bengals lost 20-0 against Baltimore. Houston was beaten 29-7 by Jacksonville. I won't try and say one was better than the other. However, I do like the fact that the Bengals, 3-1 ATS their last four off a division loss, will be at home for the second straight week. Playing on a short week is rarely easy and that can particularly be the case early on the season. Travel can make it even more difficult. You may recall the Texans playing a Thursday night road game last September; they lost 27-0. They're 0-2 SU/ATS on Thursdays the past couple of seasons. The Bengals also played a Thursday game last September. Like they are here, they were at home for that one. They won 22-7. As of this writing, it still remains to be seen whether the Texans will start Savage or Watson. They might not have a choice, however, as Watson was seen limping after the loss to the Jags. (He did have a limited practice Monday.) Regardless of who is behind center for Houston, I like Dalton's chances of responding with a bounce-back effort better than either of the Houston pivots. Bengals get some payback. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* MAIN EVENT). With Adrian Peterson now wearing a Saints' uniform, the visitors are likely to be a popular pick. The general feeling is that the Saints' offense was already very good once again last season and that the addition of AP can only make them better. Maybe. Maybe not. Either way, its not the Saints' offense which is usually the problem. Their issues have long come on the other side of the ball. Last season's Sainst allowed an average of 28.3 ppg. That number climbed to 34.3 ppg their final three games of the season. The Vikings, on the other hand, allowed 19.2 ppg on the season, just 18 here at home. (The previous season, the Vikes allowed just 18.4 ppg while the Saints allowed 29.7.) The Saints have struggled in recent Septembers while the Vikes have thrived. The Vikes are 13-4 ATS their last 17 here. Expect superior defense and homefield advantage to ultimately make the difference. 

 I'm playing on DALLAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). These NFC rivals often seem to play on primetime. The fact that the Giants have had the edge in the series recently - and that many watched and remembered those games - has helped in bringing the line lower than it easily could have been.

Yes, the Giants did win (20-19) here last September, opening day. That was before the Cowboys really got rolling though. In fact, it was the first game for both Prescott and Elliott. Despite that inexperience, the Cowboys were in a position to win, at the end of the game.

Obviously, Prescott has learned a lot since then. His confidence has grown immensely and he's earned the trust of his team. Note that Prescott was extremely efficient in the preseason. He completed 18-of-22 passes, good for 219 yards, two touchdowns, and no turnovers. 

Even factoring in that opening day result, the Cowboys were still much better at home than the Giants were on the road. Dallas finished 7-2 here, outscoring teams by an average score of 29.3 to 21.3. On the other hand, the Giants were 4-5 on the road, getting outscored by a 20.6 to 17.2 average score. Look for Prescott and co. to get some payback from last year, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on ILLINOIS (10* GAME OF WEEK). (Big 10 Network) It wasn't pretty but the Illini escaped their opener with a win. Often, surviving a tougher than anticipated challenge can be good for a team. I expect that to be the case for the Illini, that close win serving them well this week. While the Hilltoppers have indeed been a dominant team in their conference, they're 0-6 all-time against Big-Ten teams. Now, they're being asked to go on the road and lay points. Yes, the Hilltoppers return their star QB, Mike White. However, he lost a lot of the weapons around him. Receivers Taylor and Norris combined for 180 catches and 31 TDs last season. They've moved on. Likewise for Wales, who ran for 1600 yards last year. Throw in a a few losses on the line and White might not find things quite as easy this week as he often does. Consider also that in addition to the personnel losses around him, White is working with a new coach and new system, playing their first road game. The fact that the Hilltoppers were laying -39 points in their Week 1 game and only won 31-17 supports the idea that they're not going to be as potent this season, at least not initially. They've traditionally struggled in road openers and I expect them to have their hands full the entire way.

I'm playing on OHIO. While the Bobcats played a "cupcake" (Hampton) and Boilermakers played a "powerhouse" (Louisville) I like the fact that Ohio won huge 59-0 a lot more than the way Purdue narrowly lost to the Cardinals. Purdue deserves credit for playing Louisville tough. However, the close loss figures to take a toll on them this week. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on UCLA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Bruins will have payback in their minds. You'll recall that the Aggies beat them (31-24) in OT to open last season. That was at College Station though. Now, the Bruins are the home team. They also figure to be in for a much better year. Of course, after last season's 4-8 record, there's really only one way to go. That said, this is indeed going to be a vastly improved team. Needless to say, the Bruins are desperately going to want to avoid going down the same path as last year. Rosen is surrounded by plenty of weapons and a highly experienced offense. This is his chance to shine in the spotlight - against an Aggie  secondary which often struggled last year. I dont think the Aggies, who may have more important things (Hurricane Harvey and the problems in Texas) on the back of their mind, will be able to keep up. Bruins avenge last year's loss and cover the small number along the way.

I'm playing on OLE MISS (10* GAME OF WEEK). You may recall that the Jaguars were also in the state of Mississippi for their opening game last season. Listed as 28-point underdogs, at Starkville, they won outright 21-20! Just imagine. A middle-tier Sun Belt team comes down and beats you, an SEC team, on your own field. Not the way you want to start a season! This isn't Starkville though and these aren't the Bulldogs. Expect the Rebels to have learned a lesson from that game - and for them to come in looking to get some payback for their state and conference. As Shea Patterson had to say: "We're treating South Alabama like it's Alabama." The Rebels are 13-0 SU and 8-5 ATS their last 13 against the Sun Belt. They're also 12-5 ATS (13-4 SU) their last 17 when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56 to 63.5 range. Expect the Rebels to improve on those stats Saturday, the SEC settling the score.

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). While Week 4 generally doesn't mean a whole lot, I believe that the winless Raiders will be a little more motivated than the undefeated Seahawks. These teams met in the final game of the preseason again last year. That game was pretty uneventful until a wild fourth quarter. (It was 2-0 Raiders at halftime and 5-3, entering the fourth.) A wild final quarter saw Seattle win 23-21 on an INT-return for a TD. Look for the Raider 2nd and 3rd stringers to be a little hungrier than their guests this time round, avenging that loss while earning some bragging rights for their fans, who have a rivalry with the Seattle fans. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Tigers are hoping for and expecting a big year. Last season, despite a new coaching staff and having to break in a new QB, the Tigers went 8-5. While they do lose their offensive coordinator, this year's team should be explosive on offense, as they essentially return all their players on that side of the ball. While the Tigers do have some questions on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the secondary, UL Monroe doesn't have the weapons to take advantage. Expect the Tigers to jump on top early, which will ultimately force the Warhawks out of their running game and lead to a lopsided statement blowout.

I'm playing CHICAGO on the RUN-LINE (+1.5 runs, 10* ANNIHILATOR). After facing right-handed starters in each of the first two games of this series, Chicago will see a left-hander for this afternoon's finale. Thats noteworthy, as the Sox have hit better against southpaws than they have against right-handers. This particular lefty, Matt Boyd, also happens to be in terrible current form. In five August appearances, four starts, he's 0-2 with an awful 10.19 ERA and 2.32 WHIP. Thats downright terrible. For the season, Boyd is 5-7 with a 6.24 ERA and 1.75 WHIP.

The Tigers have been struggling, too. Entering the weekend, they'd lost nine of their last 11. Meanwhile, Chicago entered the weekend off three straight wins and with victories in five of its past seven. Yet, the Tigers still opened as favorites on the moneyline. That means we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with the home team at a very reasonable price, which I believe is providing excellent value. 

The Sox send Lucas Giolito to the mound for his second start. In his first start, Giolito went six innings. While he took the loss, I liked the fact that he was the first Chicago pitcher in more than a decade to go six or more innings, without walking a batter, in his debut. I like him to get the better of Boyd on Sunday afternoon, the Sox earning AT LEAST a "run-line cover."

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). The Bears aren't getting much respect in this one. The Titans are expected to be pretty good this year, while the Bears are not. That may be so. However, I believe the Bears, who have a number of position battles going on, are going to show up ready to play. Glennon, who has admittedly struggled, will be feeling the pressure to perform. Thats a good thing. The entire Bears' first team offense should be motivated to achieve success. Part of the reason that Glennon is feeling pressure is that rookie Mitchell Trubisky has already looked better than anticipated and some are already calling for him to be the starter. Anyway, in my opinion, the QB battle figures to serve them well. On the other side of the ball, the Bears' defensive front-seven has been excellent. The secondary has potential to be strong. While I respect the Titans, they're mostly set in terms of who's going to start on opening day. Expect the visitors to be the more motivated team and for that to lead to AT LEAST a cover.

I'm playing on BUFFALO (10* BEST BET). Both teams will take a much longer look at their starters, naturally. I believe this game will be more important to the Bills though. With an 0-2 record, they really want to see Tyrod Taylor and the first team offense have some success. The Bills have a number of positions still up for grabs, with players fighting for the starter's job. At 0-2, the Ravens have less to prove. Injuries have already been an issue and staying healthy should be a priority. Grab the points.

I'm playing on UMASS 10* ANNIHILATOR. One could make a case for this being the most important game of the Minutemen's entire schedule. This is a team which needs confidence out of the gate and which also almost certainly needs a win in this game, if it wants to entertain thoughts of getting to six wins. I believe the Minutemen are going to come ready to play. They return their QB and have talent at the offensive skill positions. Tight end Adam Breneman ranks near the top of his position. The defense gets a new coordinator but that figures to be a good thing. They're far more experienced on that side of the ball than they were last season. Hawaii is a team which the Minutemen can compete against. Look for a highly motivated effort from the home team, the lumps the Minutemen took last season paying off for them in this game. 

I'm playing on KC (10* MAIN EVENT). In what easily could be a close one, I'm grabbing the points with the Chiefs. With this being the third game, starters on both teams will see considerably more action. The majority of Reid's starters are expected to see a full three quarters. These teams used to be the same division and played each other regularly, as a result. Games were often close. Last year, they met in the preseason. That was also very close. In fact, Seattle scored a TD on the final play to win by a single point. The Chiefs held a 16-6 lead, going into the fourth. While I'm grabbing the points, don't be surprised to see the Chiefs, who are off a dominant victory over the Bengals, win this one outright. 

I'm playing on MONTREAL (10* GAME OF WEEK). These teams met on a Thursday one month ago, at Winnipeg. You may recall that one, as it was one of the wildest games of the season. Even if you don't remember it, the Als certainly haven't forgotten. Thats because Winnipeg stunned them on the final play to win 41-40. Playing at home, the Als should get some payback this evening. Montreal is 3-1 here, limiting visiting teams to a mere 17.7 ppg. While the Bombers have had success on the road, they do allow 31.7 ppg away from Winnipeg. It should also be noted that they're an ugly 2-10 SU/ATS the last 12 times that they were listed as road favorites of three or fewer points. While the Bombers come in as the hotter team, look for home field and "revenge" to ultimately prove the difference. *GOW

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE (10* GAME OF WEEK). With this being a Thursday game, it should be noted that the schedule sets up very nicely for the Jaguars. They played here last Thursday. On the other hand, the Panthers played at Tennessee on Saturday. So, the Jags play with a full week between games and no travel. The Panthers have to travel and have two day's less worth of time in between games.

Both teams lost last week. However, the Jags figure to have a little more urgency here. They managed only eight points in their loss against the Bucs and none of those came until the fourth quarter. While one could argue that the first stringers have been bad, I believe that its going to cause them to be extremely motivated here. This is a team which desperately needs to gain some confidence and to figure out its QB situation. While the whole world is seemingly against Bortles, he'll be motivated to show he's still the guy. Likewise, Henne and Allen will look to show that the job should be theirs. With the homefield, motivation and scheduling advantage, expect the Jags to earn the win and cover. *GOW

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK). I like the Cards' chances of jumping on the Bears early here. Arizona, which has had an extra game due to having played in the HOF Game, is off a solid victory over Oakland last time out. The Bears' first team offense struggled in their opener. Two turnovers and a 3-and-out in their first three possessions. Meanwhile, the Bears 2nd and 3rd stringers on defense gave up a pair of late TD's last week. While the Cards still aren't expected to play their starters for a full half until next week, I still think that the extra game played will serve them well. Off last season's disappointment, I believe that they're going to be looking to regain their swagger, particularly here at home. Expect a convincing victory. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. If just going by the scores, one could easily argue that the Ravens were more impressive than the Dolphins in Week 1 of the preseason. Miami barely beat the Falcons, outscoring the defending NFC Champs by a 13-0 margin in the fourth quarter to earn a 23-20 victory. The Ravens, on the other hand, won by a convincing 23-3 margin over Washington. 

However, all is not as well in Baltimore, as that score might suggest. The Ravens recently lost starting guard Alex Lewis to a season-ending injury. That makes it a ridiculous NINE players that they've lost since June 1st alone, either due to injury, retirement or suspsension. With all those personnel issues, already with a win under their belt and playing a Week 2 preseason game on the road, the Ravens' primary emphasis should be on avoiding further injury. 

There was originally some talk of injured starting QB Joe Flacco getting some time in during the preseason. However, thats not going to happen. Flacco's backup (Mallett) had a 57.2 QB rating in the opener, going 9 of 18. Mallett, who recently had a 5-interception day at practice, failed to properly take advantage of the good field position which the defense, which admittedly played well, provided. 

Of course, the Dolphins are also without their starting QB, as Tannehill is out with injury. Matt Moore is more than capable though, having won three of four games he started in 2016. While Moore didn't get much time last week, he should get more this week. Reports indicate that newly acquired Cutler will get the start though. Cutler, who thrived under Gase previously, "didn't unretire to sit on the sidelines." Though he's unlikely to see too many snaps, he's going to want to make a good impression. Likewise for Moore, who can't be too happy about Cutler's signing and who will want to have a strong game to make a case for being the starter. 

While its true that the Dolphins have also been hit by injuries, playing their final home game of the preseason, I expect them to be more motivated than their guests. Ultimately, I expect that to lead to a win and cover.

I'm playing on LA. While both teams will place a high priority on staying healthy, I expect this game to mean more to LA. The Seahawks have zero to prove while the Chargers are looking to win over their new fans and establish a winning mentality. Expect them to go a little harder for the "W" and for that to ultimately make the difference.

10* GAME OF WEEK Saskatchewan Roughriders. Toronto is 3-2, having traded wins and losses so far to open the 2017 campaign, most recently beating Ottawa 27-24. Argos’ veteran QB Ricky Ray has nearly 1,900 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s so far this year. WR SJ Green is another standout with 31 receptions for 518 yards and a TD, but the ground game has so far been a weak point on the offensive side. At 1-3, the Roughriders will clearly be looking for a better performance at home after falling 27-10 to Calgary last time out. Saskatchewan QB Kevin Glenn has been solid this year as well, so far with seven TD’s and four INT’s. WR Naaman Roosevelt has 29 catches for 342 yards and a TD on the year. This has been a spot in which Toronto has struggled in significantly for bettors though, already 0-2 ATS this season off a win against a division rival, it’s also just 1-7 ATS in its last eight in the same position. Conversely, Saskatchewan has already done well in this spot by going 2-0 ATS this year in non-conference games. I like the “hungrier” home side to pull away down the stretch. Play on the Roughriders.

10* RUN-LINE ANNIHILATOR on the Baltimore Orioles. In a game which I foresee being decided late or in extra innings, I’m going to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance. The Astros turn to Lance McCullers (7-2, 3.28 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back rough outings. McCullers has for the most part been as solid as Houston could have possibly hoped for this year, but his recent form suggests that rockier times are likely still ahead and that his early remarkable numbers are unsustainable. Baltimore counters with Dylan Bundy (9-8, 4.18) who gave up one run over six innings to go along with four K’s in a victory over Texas on Tuesday. Ultimately I’m expecting Bundy to at the very least match his struggling counterpart today, which swings the value to the home side with the added runs (RUN-LINE)

10* GAME OF WEEK Hamilton. I had a big play on Hamilton last week and it jumped out to a decent start, but then fell apart to BC’s high-octane offense down the stretch. It’s essentially “do-or-die” for the Ti-Cats this week though, as despite a long 18-game season, an 0-4 hole out of the gate would likely be just too much for the team to climb out of. Hamilton is desperate at 0-3, while Edmonton comes to town contented at 3-0. Eskimos QB Mike Reilly has posted four TD’s in his last three games. The ground game for the visitors averages just 99.3 YPG though. The Eskimos get the job done on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 22.3 PPG thus far. That means that the pressure is on Ti-Cats QB Zach Collaros to step up with his best performance of the 2017 campaign (so far he has 792 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s.) Hamilton has struggled defensively, but note that the Ti-Cats have excelled in this spot for bettors over the years by going 6-3 ATS in their last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses and 5-3 ATS in their last eight as an underdog of three to nine points (conversely, the Eskimos are just 9-11 ATS in their last 20 as a favorite of three to nine points.) All signs point to a letdown for Edmonton. Grab the points.

10* RUN-LINE SUPER PLAY on the San Francisco Giants (+1.5 runs). I think the home side bounces back after yesterday’s 5-3 defeat. Mike Clevinger (5-3, 3.00 ERA) has been hot of late, but I’ll point out that the Indians are still just 4-11 (-13.6 units) in all interleague contests and just 2-4 (-2.4 units) in their last six following a victory. The Giants turn to Ty Blach (6-5, 4.60) who comes in off a victory against Detroit on Wednesday after holding it to three runs over six innings. Blach has been serviceable at best this year, but he’ll be looking to take advantage of the fact that the Giants are 3-1 (+2.2 units) in their last four as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright victory, I’m going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs. Play on San Fran (RUN-LINE.) 

10* GAME OF WEEK on Saskatchewan Roughriders. Both teams are winless and each will be as equally as hungry for a victory today. However, I think the 0-2 Roughriders will finally find a way to punch one into the win column after back-to-back heart-breaking losses to open the season. QB Kevin Glenn has completed 72 percent of his passes over the first two games for 675 yards, five TD’s and three INT’s. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on the WR combo of Caleb Holley and Nic Demski, who have caught 398 receiving yards and two TD’s. The Roughriders’ have been putting points on the board, but it’s been on the defensive side where the team has lacked, allowing 30 PPG (Sam Williams leads Saskatchewan with 12 tackles so far.) The Ti-Cats had a bye after falling to the Argos in Toronto in Week 1. Unfortunately, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered for Hamilton to get back on track as it’s lost six of its last seven away from friendly confines. QB Zach Collaros had 242 yards, zero TD’s and an INT in the loss to Toronto. Defensively the Ti-Cats allowed 32 points and 545 yards, which doesn’t bode well in facing Glenn and his dynamic receiving unit. Hamilton plays its next two games at home, so the possibility of it getting caught looking ahead becomes a factor here. But more than anything, I think the Roughriders leave everything they have on the field to earn their first victory of the year. Play on Saskatchewan.

10* MAIN EVENT St. Louis Cardinals (RUN-LINE). Max Scherzer (9-5, 2.06 ERA) is putting together an unbelievable campaign, but Carlos Martinez (6-6, 2.88) isn’t far behind him. Scherzer most recently gave up one run off two hits with no walks across six innings in a victory over the Cubs on Tuesday. Scherzer enters this game on top form, but faces a red hot Martinez who gave up two runs off four hits and three walks while striking out ten over six frames in an unfortunate no-decision against Arizona on Tuesday. Martinez has struck out ten or more batters in four of his 16 starts this year (he’s 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA at home as well). I think this one will be decided late or in extra innings, which means I’ll gladly lay this very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the Cards (RUN-LINE)

10* GAME OF MONTH Calgary Stampeders. Calgary finished 15-2-1 last year and lost to Ottawa in the Grey Cup. These teams played to a 31-31 tie in Week 1, but I think the scales will now finally tip in favor of the high-powered Stampeders, who I expect to dominate from start to finish in front of the home town crowd. Ottawa QB Trevor Harris had 300 yards, three TD’s and an INT last week. The Redblacks finished with 116 yards on the ground last week as well. But as mentioned off the top, the Stamps have to be feeling pretty good in this spot as they haven’t lost a home game since October of 2015. QB Bo Levi Mitchell was the “cream of the crop” last year and he finished with 376 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s last week. Marquay McDaniel and DaVaris Daniels combined for 204 receiving yards. Ottawa has struggled in this spot for bettors, just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Calgary is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home fav in the 7.5 to ten points range. Home field advantage can’t be overlooked this week. Neither can the “revenge” angle. All signs point to Calgary finally getting some revenge from last year’s Grey Cup debacle. Lay the points.

10* RUN-LINE GAME OF MONTH on Chicago White Sox. I think this is great value, as I’ll grab the 1.5 runs of insurance for the near pick-em price. Luis Severino (5-3, 3.30 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and he most recently allowed five earned runs over six innings while giving up eight hits and two walks. Severino has been regressing as the season has progressed as he’s now allowed back-to-back sub-par four-plus run performances. Jose Quintana (4-8, 4.69) comes in off a gem against the Twins, going seven scoreless and striking out nine. Quintana has gotten better as the season has worn on, having allowed just six runs over his past four starts combined (posting 24 K’s in that span). The Yanks are just 14-17 (-9.2 units) against clubs with losing records, which clearly doesn’t bode well for the suddenly struggling Severino. Play on the White Sox on the run-line.

10* GAME OF WEEK Toronto Argonauts. Hamiton’s hopes once again ride on the arm of QB Zach Collaros who was good (2,900 yards, 18 TD’s) last year, but note great (the TiCats finishd 7-11). Collaros’s favorite target was Luke Tasker, who caught 76 passes for 852 yards. RB CJ Gable rounds out a decent offense. There’s really only one way the Toronto Argonauts can go this year and that’s up. The Argos gave up a league high 568 points last season, prompting the team to focus heavily on revamping its secondary and defensive line. QB Ricky Ray is back under center and he’ll clearly be looking to improve upon his 2,400 yards that he posted in 2016. Ray though has both the track record and pedigree to return to form (he started 2016 injured and was never really able to get a handle on the season after that). Ray will be leaning heavily on talented back Brandon Whitaker, who also dealt with injury issues in 2016. Ray has plenty of raw talent at receiver as well with ex-NFL veterans DeVier Pose and Armanti Edwards. Toronto finally moves into its new home (BMO Field) and I think it’ll be able to ride the wave of emotion to a victory today (or at the very least, a comfortable cover). In a contest which I foresee being decided in the final moments, I’m grabbing the points.

10* MAIN EVENT on Saskatchewan Roughriders. There’s not much to do in Saskatchewan, Canada. The Roughriders are one of the main draws in the City and after going just 5-13 last year, the team will be looking to start things off on the “right foot” in 2017. Sask. has three capbable QB’s which will be competing for the starting job to open the season in Kevin Glenn, Brandon Bridge and Marquise Williams. Whoever wins the job, they’re surrounded by dangerous offensive weapons, including 1,000-yard receiver Naaman Roosevelt and dynamic RB Greg Morris. Montreal fans can empathize with the Roughriders, as their once league-leading team has fallen on hard times of late, finishing just 7-11 last season. Montreal has Darian Durant at QB, last year he threw for more than 3,800 yards for Saskatchewan. The Als also have plenty of offensive weapons, including Nik Lewis, Brandon Rutley and Sam Giguere. Both teams went through some changes on the defensive end, so I’m calling this area a “wash.” I think these offenses are even as well, as each side will have to go through some growing pains to open the campaign. Note though that the Roughriders are 10-7 ATS their last 17 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while Montreal is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a fav of 3.5 to 9.5 points. I think this one is going to be decided in the final moments. Grab the points.

I'm playing DETROIT on the run-line (+1.5 runs, 10* ANNIHILATOR.) The Tigers got back on track Sunday, snapping a 3-game losing streak with an 8-3 win at Boston. Rested, returning home and with a hot pitcher on the mound, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Farmer has made two starts this season and he has yet to allow a single run. Through 13 combined innings, he's recorded 16 K's against just three walks and nine hits. (That works out to a 0.692 WHIP.) While Greinke is still tough, he's just 2-3 in five road starts, the most recent of those wins coming by a single run. He lasted just five innings last time out and has a 4.67 ERA his last three. Dbax 13-17 on the road, Tigers 16-12 at home. Tigers 26-17 (+9.6) their last 43 vs. the moneyline, when playing with a day off. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs at the reasonable price. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND, 8* MAIN EVENT. You already know the situation and have probably watched at least some of the series. The Warriors, still undefeated in the postseason, are now up 3-0 and going for the sweep. Most seem to think they'll get it, as the line is a little higher than it was here for Game 3. I've often been known to also jump on the team which is up 3-0. However, in this case, I feel that Lebron simply has too much pride to go down without a serious fight. The Cavs could have easily covered last game. I expect AT LEAST a cover here, the Cavs with an excellent shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND, 10* MAIN EVENT. The Warriors obviously dominated the games out West and are looking very strong. That said, getting points with the Cavs at home, in a must-win game, is providing excellent value. The numbers are remarkably even, when we compare the Warriors' road stats to the Cavs' home stats. GS is 37-10 on the road. Cleveland is 36-11 at home. GS averages 113.8 ppg on the road. Cleveland averages 113 ppg at home. GS allows 105.4 ppg on the road. Cleveland allows 104.8 ppg at home. (The Cavs outscore teams by 8.2 ppg at home, while the Warriors outscore teams by 8.4 ppg on the road.) The Cavs are 5-1 SU/ATS the last six times that they allowed 130 or more points in their previous game. The last time (4/2 at Indiana) it happened, they delivered a 20-point win their next game. The last time these teams met here was Christmas Day and the Cavs won by a single point. I'm not counting out James quite yet and in a game which could easily again come down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Warriors have opened as bigger favorites for Game 2 than they were for the opening game. I feel thats providing excellent value on what should be a highly determined Cleveland team. Granted, the Warriors certainly looked impressive in the opener. I'm not counting the Cavs out for Game 2 though. Not even close. While the same can be said of the Warriors, this is a Cleveland team which has taken its game to another level and dominated these entire playoffs. Prior to Thursday's setback, the Cavs had only lost one of their previous 13 games. They responded to that one with a double-digit win (vs. Boston) next time out. Trailing for the first time in these playoffs, expect the champs to bounce back with at least a cover, improving to 6-4 ATS their last 10, when trailing in a playoff series. 

I'm playing PHILADELPHIA on the run-line (+1.5 runs, 10* BEST BET) The Phillies got back on track with a much needed win yesterday and will bring some positive momentum to the ballpark this afternoon. They're a profitable 8-3 (+7.1) vs. the money-line when Hellickson takes the mound, 4-1 here at home. While Hellickson's ERA is a mediocre 4.45, he does have a solid 1.17 WHIP. Moore would be pretty happy to have those kind of numbers. Despite having five of his 11 starts come at pitcher-friendly SF, he's 2-6 (SF is 3-8) with a 4.99 ERA and 1.462 WHIP overall. On the road, Moore is 0-4 and has an ugly 7.80 ERA / 1.901 WHIP. The Giants are 1-5 in his road starts, the lone win coming by a single run. Hellickson's lone 2016 start vs. the Giants was a 3-2 game on 6/25. About six weeks later, Moore's lone 2016 start vs. the Phillies also resulted in a 3-2 game. I'm grabbing the +1.5 runs.

I'm playing ST. LOUIS on the run-line (+1.5 runs, 10* RUN LINE.) I believe that the Cards have an excellent shot at winning this game "outright." However, if I can get an extra +1.5 runs at this reasonable a price, out of respect to McCarthy and the Dodgers, I believe thats the way to go. Wainwright is in excellent current form. He's off three straight quality starts. Correction. Three straight dominant starts. He's 3-0 with a 0.44 ERA during that stretch, allowing a single run through 20+ innings. Admittedly, McCarthy has also been pretty sharp of late. He did leave his last start with knee tendenitis though, something thats been troubling him all the way back to spring training. McCarthy has made three starts vs. the Cards and all three were decided by a single run. Likewise, Wainwright's last two starts vs. the Dodgers (both in 2014) were both decided by a single run. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5. 

I'm playing MIAMI on the run-line (+1.5 runs. 10* BREAKFAST CLUB) While I like the Marlins' chances of winning "outright," getting an extra +1.5 runs at this reasonable a price is too good a deal to pass up. Admittedly, Shoemaker has been solid overall (3.97 ERA) and he's been stingy of late. That said, the Angels are still just 10-18 on the road and I won't be surprised if they have some trouble against a pitcher who they haven't previously seen. While Urena may be 0-2 in two home starts, he's also got a 2.31 ERA in those games. Additionally, it should be noted that he's got a 0.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in daytime appearances. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing the Cavs for the first half 10* FIRST HALF GAME OF YEAR. After they blew a big lead and lost the previous game outright, the Cavs came out sluggishly in the first half of the last game. At the break, they found themselves trailing by double-digits. They finally "woke up" though and won the second half by 23 points. This being an elimination game, knowing the Warriors are already waiting for them, I expect Lebron and co. to smell the blood in the water. Trying to break Boston's will early, look for them to bring the same type of intensity they showed in the second half of the last game to the opening tip tonight. The Cavs were up by scores of 61-39 and 72-31 at the break in the first two games here. I expect them to have a healthy lead at the break once again. 

I'm playing PHILADELPHIA on the run-line (+1.5 runs, 10*) The Phillies have struggled of late but I expect them to bounce back and AT LEAST keep this one close. Anderson is nothing special, as evidenced by his 6.66 ERA in five road starts. In that 25 2/3 innings span, he's served up eight long balls. He lasted just three innings when he started here last season, getting taken deep once and giving up four runs overall. The Phillies won 6-3. Velasquez's lone 2016 start against the Rockies came at Colorado. Still, he managed to allow just two runs through six complete innings, the Phillies winning 5-3. The Rockies are just 12-23 (-10.3) their last 35 vs. the money-line after three or more consecutive victories. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing ATLANTA on the run-line (+1.5 runs, 10*) Yesterday's (12-5) final score is a bit deceiving, as it makes the game look like a blowout. (It actually went to extra innings.) Prior to that, both these teams had seen two of their previous three decided by a single run. Though he only went 4 1/3 innings last time out, Colon recorded six K's without walking a batter, giving up one earned run in that time. The Braves ended up winning 5-2. He'd beaten the Jays in his previous start. Admittedly, Nova has been solid. However, its tough to win by more than a run when your team doesn't score on the road. Prior to yesterday's "explosion," the Pirates were averaging just 3.7 runs per game away from Pittsburgh. Colon hasn't faced the Pirates this season but he dominated them (8 K's, 0 walks, 2 runs in 7 2/3 innings) in his lone 2016 start against them. Nova's lone 2017 start against Altanta was a 1-run game. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing SEATTLE on the run-line (+1.5 runs, 10*) Since splitting a pair of 1-run games on 5/18 and 5/19, the M's have been "blown out" in four straight. I expect them to bounce back and at least "keep this one close." Gonzalez has given up six home runs over his last three starts, sporting a 5.40 ERA and 1.636 WHIP during that stretch. His 12 K's vs. 10 walks over those three games does little to inspire confidence either. Miranda, on the other hand, has 17 K's (against 5 walks) in his last two starts alone. In those games, he's allowed just two combined runs in 12 innings. While I actually expect the M's to win outright, as both those games resulted in 1-run Seattle losses, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing PHILADELPHIA on the run-line. (+1.5 runs, 10* ANNIHILATOR) The Phillies may not win many games when anyone else pitches. However, they've been money when Hellickson is on the mound. In fact, in nine Hellickson starts, they're a highly profitable 8-1 (+9.1) vs. the money-line. It should be noted that six of those nine starts, including ALL four here at Philly, have been decided by a single run. Hellickson has a stellar 2.38 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in those four games. On the other hand, Chatwood is 3-6 with a 5.10 ERA overall, 1-3 on the road. He's 0-2 his last two starts, walking nine batters in 9 1/3 innings. It should also be noted that Chatwood is 0-2 his last two starts vs. the Phillies, walking eight batters in nine total innings. Hellickson's lone start vs. the Rockies resulted in an 8-1 win, Hellickson allowing just three hits (and 0 walks) through seven strong innings. While I like the Phillies' chances of winning "outright," in my opinion, getting an extra +1.5 runs at this price is a bargain.

I'm playing on BOSTON 10* MAIN EVENT. Obviously, the Cavs are playing very well. Off that dominant effort in Game 1, many have already written this series off. While it will indeed be difficult to win the series, I'm not writing the Celtics off quite yet. Not for tonight, at least. This is still a team which is 35-14 at home. Meanwhile, the Cavs are still just 25-21 on the road. The Celtics are a profitable 10-4 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss. I'm taking the points.

I'm playing KC on run-line 10* ANNIHILATOR. (+1.5 runs) While they lost yesterday's opener, the Royals have still won four of fice and six of eight. The Yankees have still lost four of six. While I like the Royals' chances of bouncing back with an "outright" win, getting an extra +1.5 runs at this very reasonable price is even more appealing. Admittedly, Vargas' history vs. the Yankees is less than impressive. However, those numbers are from years ago. He's only faced them a few times since Sept. 2011, most recently in 2015. In fact, his most recent "home" start vs. the Yankees saw him allow just one run and only three hits through 6 2/3 innings. He didn't get the win but his team did, a 2-1 victory against Nova. This season, Vargas is 3-0 with a dominant 0.34 ERA in four home starts. In 26 2/3 innings here, he's only allowed one run! On the other hand, Pineda has a poor 5.52 ERA through three road starts. Note that Pineda, who got rocked in both 2016 starts (0-2 record, 11 runs in 11 2/3 innings) against KC, has seen each of his last two starts decided by a single run. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* BEST BET. After the first five games were all decided by "double-digits," the last game was decided by a single point. With everything on the line between two evenly matched teams, I won't be surprised to see this one also come down to the wire. The fact that the teams had the weekend off figures to work in Washington's favor. The Celtics are just 6-11 ATS (7-10 SU) when playing with two day's rest this season. Thats pretty bad, considering how strong their overall record was. On the other hand, the Wizards are 9-6 ATS (10-5 SU) when doing so. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on GS 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Spurs sure looked impressive in their Game 6 win at Houston. They're obviously extremely well-coached and not to be taken lightly. That said, I believe that the Warriors are playing at another level. They have yet to lose this postseason. All but one of their victories has come by double-digits. The Spurs have only lost twice in May. However, both of those losses came by more than 20 points. So, when they do lose, they've shown that they can "lose big." Note that the Spurs are 5-9 ATS off two day's rest and 2-4 ATS when coming off an "upset" win. All three of this season's regular season meetings were decided by a minimum of 12 points, two of those decided by 20 or more. I expect the Warriors to deliver another convincing victory on Sunday. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* MAIN EVENT. Since stealing Game 1, the Rockets have dropped two in a row. That essentially makes this a must win game for them and I expect them to respond with their very best effort. While the Spurs are just 2-3 SU/ATS off an upset win, the Rockets are 11-6-1 ATS and 14-4 SU, when off an upset loss. They're also 9-3-1 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Expect them to even the series, picking up the cover along the way.

I'm playing KC on the run-line. (+1.5) runs 10* ANNIHILATOR. I quite like the Royals' chances of winning "outright." However, in a game that could well be close, if they're going to offer an extra +1.5 runs at this reasonable a price, I feel thats where the best value lies. Tomlin is 2-3 with an 8.87 ERA and 1.757 WHIP. On the other hand, Vargas is 4-1 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.979 WHIP. At home, he's 3-0 with a spectacular 0.44 ERA and 0.822 WHIP. Averaging just shy of seven complete innings at home, he has yet to allow a HR here. Given that Tomlin's last three starts vs. the Royals were all close 1-run games, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs.

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* BEST BET. After dropping the first two games at Cleveland, the Raptors are in "must win" territory. With Lowry, who did not participate in morning shootaround, a gametime decision, not many are giving the Raptors much of a chance here. With or without Lowry, I expect a determined Raptor team to come ready to play. You may recall that the Raptors lost both the first games at Cleveland pretty badly in last season's playoffs, too. For Game 3, the Cavs were -5.5 point favorites. Yet, the Raptors scored an 99-84 upset. This team, now with Ibaka, is every bit as capable as last year's team and they're not going to go down without a fight. While the Cavs are 22-21 on the road, the Cavs are 30-14 at home. While I feel that they've got a great shot at the upset, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on GS 10* PERS FAV. The Jazz eked out a cover in Game 1, losing by 12. While the line has come down slightly for Game 2, I don't expect the Jazz to be so fortunate tonight. This playoff-tested team is already 3-0 ATS when leading in a series. After winning by "only" 12 in the opener against the Blazers, the line also came down a little for Game 2 of that series. Yet, the Warriors won Game 2 by 29 points, their biggest blowout of the playoffs. The Jazz may give them a tougher challenge in Utah but I don't see it happening here tonight. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO 10* PERS FAV. After getting embarrassed last time out, the Spurs figure to be much better in Game 2. They've already lost home court advantage and know they can ill afford to stumble again. The Spurs are 12-8-1 ATS (15-6 SU) off an "upset loss" this season and they're 5-2 SU/ATS when playing with "home revenge." On the other hand, the Rockets were just 2-5 ATS off an "upset win." Expect the Spurs to want this one more and for that to ultimately lead to a win and cover. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* BEST BET. I won with the Cavs in the opener. However, I expect the Raptors to put up a much better fight tonight. The Raptors won seven of 10 games this season, when off a double-digit loss. They were blown out by the Bucks twice in the first round and each time they answered with an outright win. Some might be suprised to learn that the Raptors have been superior defensively to the Cavs this season. The Raptors allow 102.2 ppg (101.6 on the road) while the Cavs allow 107.2. Opposing teams hit 45.8% of their fg's against the Cavs but 44.9% against Toronto. Even with the Game 1 result, the Raptors are still 19-6 SU their last 25 against teams which allow 106 or more ppg. Expect them to give the Cavs all they can handle here. 

I'm playing on GS 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Jazz are just off a very taxing and emotional series. The Warriors had a relatively easy time with Portland and have had plenty of rest. I expect that to work in their favor on Tuesday night. One might expect the Jazz to fare well as big underdogs. However, that hasn't been the case. Not in recent seasons, at least. In fact, the Jazz are 0-6 SU/ATS as road underdogs of greater than a dozen points the past couple of seasons. That includes a 30-point loss here on 12/20. While the Jazz did score the upset here on 4/10, the Warriors are a dominating 38-19 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. They've won their playoff home games by an average of more than 20 points and I expect another blowout here. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* MAIN EVENT. In what should be a good series, I expect the Cavs to come out swinging. While the Cavs swept the Pacers, the Raptors showed some vulnerability in the opening round, losing a pair of games by double-digits. While some teams don't perform well after a long layoff, the Cavs haven't been one of them. They were 2-0 SU/ATS this season, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Each win came by double-digits. They returned from a long break in February and delivered a 15-point win over the Knicks. Earlier, after a break in November, they blew out the Blazers by a dozen points. Expect homecourt to be the difference, James and co. drawing first blood with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on LA 10* MAIN EVENT. The Jazz had their opportunity to win this series. They're a much better team at Utah and all they needed to do was win their last game there. Having squandered that opportunity, I expect them to stumble against a determined LA team. Paul and co. showed their resolve last game, digging deep for the win. They come in with positive momentum and are going to be buoyed by the excited home crowd. While the Jazz are only 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 times that they were off an upset loss, the Clippers are 6-3 ATS (7-2 SU) off an upset win. LA wins, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing TORONTO on the Run-Line 10*.  (+1.5 runs) This game could well be close. With an O/U line of 7.5, runs are likely to be at a premium. That said, I like getting the extra +1.5 runs with the home team here. Off yesterday's 4-1 win, the Jays come in with some positive momentum. These same two starters already faced each other this season. Both pitched well, although Sanchez was actually better. (He allowed one run in 7 innings, Archer allowed 2.) The final score was 3-2 for the Rays, a 1-run game. Last season, Sanchez made two starts against the Rays. In 14 combined innings, he allowed just a single run. The Jays won one by a score of 6-1 and the lost the other by a 3-2 score, another 1-run game. While he'll be on a pitch count here, I expect him to perform well while he's in the game. After yesterday's game, Liriano noted: "We're in April but every game we play feels like it's the playoffs right now." Expect the Jays to have a similar mentality this afternoon, earning AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* PERS FAV. I won with the Raptors last game. Playing at home, the playoff-tested Raptors dominated from wire-to-wire. This is a Toronto team which rarely does things easily though. More often than not, it seems, the Raptors end up going to seven games. You may recall them winning in Game 5 of the playoffs last season against both the Pacers and the Heat, only to then go on to lose Game 6. (They'd ultimately lose Game 6 against the Cavs, too.) The last time they returned home, off a loss at Toronto, the Bucks responded with a 27-point victory. Don't count them out yet.

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* BEST BET. Admittedly, the Warriors have looked very strong. They're going to be tough for anyone to beat in a series. That doesn't mean the Blazers can't give them all they can handle here though. In fact, I expect them to do just that. Everyone has written this series off and the Game 4 lines has gotten generously high, as a result. The Blazers have played the Warriors tough here. They've only lost by more than seven points once, the last six times that they hosted the Warriors. I don't believe they're going down without a fight and I expect them to improve to 8-4 ATS their last 12, after three ore more consecutive losses. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* MAIN EVENT. After a shaky start, the Raptors have regained home court advantage in the series. I expect them to carry the positive momentum back home with them. While the Bucks are 5-8 SU/ATS off an "upset" loss, the Raptors are 6-2 SU/ATS off an "upset" win. This line is a little lower than it was for either of the first two games here and I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that the Raptors are 29-14 on this floor while the Bucks are just 20-23 on the road. The Bucks average 101 ppg on the road, the Raptors average 110 ppg at home. In a pivotal game, expect homecourt and the Raptors' recent postseason experience to prove the difference. 

I'm playing PITTSBURGH on the RUN-LINE (+1.5 Runs, 10* VIOLATOR) The Pirates have now seen four of their last six games decided by a single run. All four had identical 2-1 scores. Three of those were losses. So, the extra +1.5 runs has been significant in their recent games. The extra +1.5 runs has been particularly significant in games started by Kuhl. He's pitched very well in back-to-back starts, allowing just three combined earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. During those two games, he held the Cards and Red Sox to just eight combined hits. He struck out nine and walked just one. Yet, the Pirates lost both games by a single run. While Kuhl has a 2.60 ERA and 1.154 WHIP, Anderson has a 4.39 ERA and 1.464 WHIP. His lone road start resulted in a 1-run game. The Pirates are 43-29 (+12.6) vs. the moneyline against southpaws the past 2+ seasons. In a game that could easily "come down to the wire," I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on UTAH 10* PERS FAV. Given the situation, I feel that we're getting the Jazz at a bargain. Griffin is out for the playoffs. True, the Clippers are used to dealing with adversity and playing without Griffin and/or Paul. Still, its a major blow and their chances of advancing deep into the playoffs took a serious hit. Even with Griffin in the lineup, it was going to be tough to beat the Jazz here, in what is essentially a must-win game. The Jazz, now 29-13 at home overall, are 37-16-3 ATS the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge a home loss. The Clippers, 23-19 on the road, are only 2-6 SU the last eight time they were leading in a playoff series, 7-15 SU their last 22 in that situation. Expect the Jazz to bounce back with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* MAIN EVENT. I lost with the Thunder in their last game. Laying -2.5 points, they won by two. The non-cover notwithstanding, it was a solid effort, one which got them back the series. I look for the Thunder to carry the positive momentum into this afternoon's game. Now 3-1 ATS their last four when trailing in a playoff series, the Thunder are also 11-6 ATS (12-5 SU) this season, after scoring 115 or more points in their previous game. While the Rockets, 2-7 ATS overall in April, are a solid 25-17 on the road, the Thunder are a superior 29-13 here at home. The pointspread should be a non-factor this time and I expect the Thunder to finish on top.

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* MAIN EVENT. The Hawks were relatively close in both games at Washington. The Wizards are tough to beat at home though and ultimiately prevailed. Washington won by eight points and seven points. While they're now 32-11 at home, the Wizards are only 19-22 on the road. Meanwhile, while the Hawks are now 20-23 on the road, they're 23-18 here at Atlanta. Expect the change of venue and home crowd to provide the Hawks with some life, enough to cover the small number. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* PERS FAV. The Thunder played much better in Game 2 but it wasn't quite enough. Down 0-2 and now moving to their homecourt, I expect an even better effort in Game 3. While the Rockets were a solid 25-16 on the road, the Thunder were an impressive 28-13 at home. With the cover in Game 2, the Thunder are now 16-9-1 ATS the last 26 times that they were trailing in a playoff series, 3-0 ATS their last three in situation. They were 31-18-1 ATS (36-14 SU) when laying points this season. I expect them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats Friday night. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* BEST BET. Down a game, I expect Westbrook and co. to respond with a huge effort in Game 2. While the Thunder are 4-1 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games, the Rockets are 4-6 ATS when doing so. The Thunder are 13-8 ATS off a double-digit loss. The Rockets are 12-18 ATS off a double-digit loss. Prior to Game 1, the Rockets had gone nine straight games without winning by more than seven points. Look for a determined Thunder team to give their hosts all they can handle. 

I'm playing on BOSTON 10* PERS FAV. I'm not writing the Celtics off yet. While Thomas personally played well, perhaps the tragic passing of his sister had an effect on his teammates. Either way, I don't expect it to be the case here. This is a team that worked too hard, all season long, to just go down meekly in the first round. They're deep, talented and well-coached. The Bulls have been inconsistent on the road all season and they're only 16-30-1 (19-28 SU) the past 2+ seasons, off an upset win. Expect the Celtics to bounce back with a convincing win and cover. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* MAIN EVENT. The Bucks scored the upset in the opener. With their backs to the wall, I expect this well-coach and battle-tested Raptor team to respond with its best game. The Raptors, 9-4 ATS (10-3 SU) when playing with two day's rest, are 10-7 ATS off an upset loss. The Bucks may have put together an excellent defensive performance in the opener but they're just 6-18-1 ATS (7-18 SU) the past 25 times that they held their previous opponent to 85 or fewer points. Expect the Raptors to bounce back with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* PERS FAV. The Pacers had a great chance of stealing Game 1. Having failed to capitalize, I don't think they'll get another opportunity like that in Game 2. The Cavs have had their "wake-up call" and I expect them to be all business here. While the Pacers are now 13-29 on the road, the Cavs are now 32-10 at home. Throw in the fact that the Cavs are 11-7 ATS (15-3 SU) the last 18 times that they were leading in a playoff series and I'm expecting a big win and cover for the home team. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. I'm hearing and reading a lot about how/why the Bulls have a chance at winning this series. I'm not buying it. In my opinion, given how strong they've been here this season, the Celtics could easily be favored by more. Including a 20-point win over the Bulls here on 3/12, they're 31-12 here on the season. The Bulls, on the other hand, are just 16-25 on the road. The Celtics are deep. They're well-coached. They're the #1 seed for a reason. Expect a statement game, the Celtics serving notice that they're the real deal. 

*After this play was released, Isaiah Thomas' sister (Chyna Thomas) passed away after being involved in a car accident. First off, deepest sypmathies to the Thomas family. As for this play, as of now, its unknown whether or not Thomas will play. Obviously, he's a huge part of this team. So, if he feels its the right thing to do do, hopefully he decides to play through the pain. However, I referenced the Celtics' depth in my writeup for good reason. Should Thomas elect not to play, I believe this team is fully capable of rising to the occasion with a big win. Either way, I still expect a win and cover. 

I'm playing on LA 10* PERS FAV. The Clippers battled hard to earn homecourt for this matchup and I expect them to make the most of it this evening. The Clippers took three of four meetings with the Jazz this season. They won both games here at LA by double-digits. The Cippers, who have won seven straight overall, are 14-6 ATS their last 20 against teams with a winning record. They finished 29-12 here at home. The Jazz, who were just 22-19 on the road, were only 6-15-1 ATS, when getting points this season. While the Jazz were 3-6 ATS when playing with two day's rest, the Clippers were 7-4 ATS when doing so. Expect homecourt to be the difference. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS 10* BEST BET. The Spurs are obviously a very good and extremely well-coached team. However, sometimes it can be hard to just "turn it on" after not playing well for a long time. The Spurs, 3-8 ATS when playing with two day's rest, are only 4-5 SU their last nine games and only one of those nine games resulted in a win of greater than six points. The Grizzlies won't be intimidated. They took two of four regular season meetings with the Spurs and both their losses came by seven or fewer points. Look for them to give their hosts all they can handle. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GAME OF MONTH. I expect this game to mean more to the T-Wolves. The Thunder, who are locked into the 6th seed, rallied to deliver a knockout blow to the Nuggets in their last game. That game actually meant something though, as Denver was still mathematically alive against the Blazers for the 8th spot. They'll face those same Nuggets, at OKC, again tomorrow to close out the regular season. Tonight's game really doesn't mean much though. Its a road game against a team which is playing only for pride. Westbrook has already set the triple-double record. They already know they'll play the Rockets. (We saw what happened to them in a "meaningless road game" last night.) The T-Wolves, on the other hand, are playing their regular season home finale. A win here will reward the home fans for staying with them through a tough season. I believe they're going to be motivated to deliver that win. Note that they beat the Thunder by 10 in the last meeting here. Expect them to win and cover once again, improving to 10-6 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive losses. *GOM

I'm playing on LA 10* PERS FAV. There are a number of factors that favor the Clippers in this one. For starters, they're playing at home, where they are a much better team. They've 27-12 here, compared to 22-19 on the road. (The Rockets are 25-15 on the road.) Also, the Clippers had yesterday off, while the Rockets are off a win at Sacramento. Additionally, the Clippers are playing with "double-revenge," as the Rockets hammered them in a couple of games earlier. Perhaps most importantly, the Rockets have already wrapped up the #3 seed while the Clippers are in a dogfight with the Jazz, who they will face in the opening round, for the #4 spot and the homecourt advantage which comes with it. While the Rockets are a surprisingly poor 5-8-1 ATS (5-9 SU) their last 14 against teams with a winning records, the Clippers are 13-6 ATS against teams with a winning record, during the same stretch. Payback time on TNT. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. The Heat beat me yesterday but that won't stop me from going against them again here. While Miami was off a hard-fought loss at Toronto, the Wizards had yesterday off. I expect a highly motivated effort from the home team. Not only is this Washington's final home game of the regular season but the Heat have already beaten them twice. Also, they know that they close out the regular season with a game at Miami on 4/12. So, if they don't beat the Heat here, they could easily be 0-4 against them for the season, a distinction which they obviously would prefer to avoid. The Heat are now 17-23 on the road. The Wizards, on the other hand, are 30-10 at home. With the Wizards also 23-12 ATS their last 35 in the "revenge" role, I say its "payback time" this evening. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* PERS FAV. Its true that the Heat really need this game. However, the same is true of the Raptors, as they are battling for the #3 spot in the conference. Currently, the Raptors are in third place (due to tiebreaker rules) just slightly ahead of the Wizards. They'd badly like to maintain that spot and try and avoid the Cavs as long as possible. The Raptors got Lowry back last game and he makes this team much better. While the Heat are 17-22 on the road, the Raptors are 27-13 at home. The Heat get outscored on the road, the Raptors outscore teams by an average of eight points per game, here at Toronto. Thats about the margin the Raptors beat the Heat by when the teams faced each other here, a 9-point win back in November. Toronto was laying -7 for that game. Including that victory, the Raptors are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) their last eight as a host of the Heat. We're getting them at a lower line this time. For the regular season home finale, I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Expect another big win and cover for the Raptors. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO 10* PERS FAV. The home team has won both meetings. The Magic won by seven here at Orlando back in mid-December. The Nets returned the favor with a 10-point win at Brooklyn last week. Playing at home and looking to avenge that loss, I expect a highly motivated effort from the Magic. While the Magic admittedly don't have a great (14-24) home record, its much better than the Nets' 7-31 record on the road. While the Nets are 2-5 ATS the last seven times that that they were off three or more consecutive wins, the Magic are 9-6 ATS their last 15 off three or more consecutive losses. With the Nets allowing more than 115 pgg on the road, and Orlando allowing an average of just 103 ppg here, I expect homecourt to again make the difference and for the Magic to come away with the win and cover. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Blazers have been roling but I expect them to finally stumble this evening. The T-Wolves would love to "play spoiler" against a team which has already beaten them twice this season. A win here gets them to .500 at home on the season. The Blazers are still just 16-23 on the road. Both teams have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games recently. The T-Wolves have hit triple-digits in five straight games, scoring 115 or more in four of those five. They should put up another big number against a Portland team which allows 109.1 (110.2 on the road) points per game. The Wolves are 18-12 ATS their last 30 against teams which allow 106 or more. Look for them to "come to play," ultimately scoring the win and cover. *GOW

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* PERS FAV. The Mavs deserve credit for hanging around as long as they did. However, they're now officially mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and I feel they may have some trouble getting up for this one. The Bucks, who will be looking to avenge an OT loss at Dallas and who have won three straight overall, are 22-17 at home. The Mavs, on the other hand, are now 10-26 on the road. The Bucks are playing with more confidence. Expect them to defend their homecourt, covering the relatively small number along the way.

I'm playing on BROOKLYN 10* PERS FAV. The Magic played a great game last night, leaving it all on the floor at Boston. They ultimately lost by a point though (117-116) and that figures to be a hard pill for them to swallow. Off that tough loss and playing their third game in four days, I won't be surprised if they're a little flat here. While the Nets are also off a tough loss, they at least had yesterday off. They know the Magic beat them at Orlando and they know they'll face them again, at Orlando, in less than a week. They're going to be hungry to avenge the earlier loss and to "hold serve" at home. This is the most winnable game on the rest of their schedule. Expect them to take advantage of the opportunity. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* MAIN EVENT. I expect the Thunder to be a little more "up" for this game. The Spurs just lost a big one against the Warriors which cost them the chance at the #1 spot. They're locked into the #2 seed, this game now means little. They're 2-4 ATS their last six off a double-digit loss, 8-12-1 ATS in that situation the past couple seasons. The home team has won both meetings, each time by double-digits. With the Thunder at 27-10 (25-11-1 ATS) home, they could easily be favored. I expect them to score the "upset." 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. Both teams really need this one but I like the way the Hornets are playing right now much better. Throw in the fact that they're also at home and this line could easily be higher. The Nuggets are off b2b losses. They got crushed by 25 points by the Pelicans in their last home game and followed it up with a pivotal 9-point loss at Portland. They've now lost four of fix. Charlotte, on the other hand, knocked off the Raptors last time out and has won five of its last seven. While Charlotte may be a relatively modest 21-17 at home, the Nuggets are just 15-21 on the road. The Hornets won by 10 at Denver a few weeks ago and I look for them to record the series sweep tonight. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. The Pistons badly need a victory and the Nets should provide them with the perfect opportunity to get one. Detroit has lost five in a row and no game on the remaining schedule will see them favored by this much. The fact that the Nets have already beaten them twice should only provide further motivation. Even with a 1-point loss last game (still covered) the Pistons are 23-15 at home. That compares favorably with the Nets' 6-30 road record. The Nets were favored last game but still lost. They're 0-2 SU/ATS when off a loss when favored. With the cover last time out, the Pistons are now 8-3 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive losses. Look for them to bounce back and record a convincing victory. 

I'm playing on LA 10* PERS FAV. The Wizards had to fight hard to beat the Lakers last night. While they don't have to travel, they're still in a tough back-to-back spot. While its true that they still have an outside shot at catching the Cavs for the #2 seed, given that they clinched the division last night, their first division title in 38 years, a letdown could easily be in order. Thats not the case for the Clippers. LA, currently in 5th in the West, is well-rested and fighting hard to get the fourth spot. As you're likely aware, the #4 seed has homecourt advantage while the #5 seed does not. After collapsing against the Kings last time out and having already lost to these same Wizards at Washington, the Clippers are going to be extremely motivated. Look for them to be both hungrier and fresher and for that to ulimately lead to a win and cover. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Hawks are on a losing streak. A look at their upcoming schedule reveals that they won't get a better opportunity than this one to stop the bleeding. After this, five of their next eight come on the road. The three remaining home games, after this one, are against Boston, Cleveland and Charlotte. In other words, they really need to take advantage of facing a Phoenix team which has lost eight straight and which is 10-30 on the road. A look at the Suns' 8-game skid shows that they allowed a minimum of 107 points in all eight of those games. Over their past three games, they've allowed 126, 130 and 120. The Hawks beat them by 13 here last season. I'm expecting another double-digit victory.

I'm playing on UTAH. The Jazz have won both this season's meetings and I expect them to have the edge again this evening. While the Pelicans are off a win at Denver yesterday, the Jazz had the day off. Thats noteworthy as New Orleans is just 4-9-1 ATS (4-10 SU) when playing the second of b2b games. Off a 13-point loss, the Jazz, who are 5-3 ATS (6-2 SU) off a double-digit loss, figure to be in a foul mood. The Pelicans are are 0-2-1 ATS (0-3 SU) when matched up against a team which allows 98 or fewer points per game. With the Jazz allowing only 96.7 ppg (94.5 at home) I'm expecting a win and cover for the home team. 

I'm playing on DALLAS 10* BEST BET. The home team has won each of this season's game convincingly. The Thunder won by 11 at OKC. The Mavs won by 15 here at Dallas. I expect homecourt to make the difference again here. Off a loss last time out and with their next five on the road, the Mavs know they need to take care of business tonight. While the Mavs had yesterday off, the Thunder are off a hard-fought loss against the Rockets. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they lost at Phoenix. Including that result, they're just 3-9 the last dozen times that they played the second of b2b games. While the Thunder are now 14-21 on the road, the Mavs are 21-17 at home. The Mavs badly need this one. Look for them to have the fresher legs and to play with a sense or urgency, en route to an important win. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* PERS FAV. Off back-to-back losses, the Pacers can't afford another setback here. While they've admittedly played much better in recent weeks, the 76ers are still an ugly 10-26 on the road. The Pacers, on the other hand, are 25-11 at home. The Pacers are a perfect 6-0 the last six times that they hosted the 76ers. They won those games by a combined 72 points, an average of a dozen points per victory. In five of those six games, including this season's earlier meeting, the Pacers were laying double-digits. However, we're only laying single-digits this time. As I'm expecting the Pacers to pull away for a double-digit win, I feel the lower line is providing us with excellent value. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks badly need a victory and a visit from the Nets should provide them with the perfect opportunity. While the Nets are 5-30 on the road, the Hawks are still 19-17 at home. When the Hawks hosted the Nets a few weeks ago, they were laying -10 points. When they played at Brooklyn in January, they were laying -8.5 points. They won those two games by an average of 12.5 points. This afternoon, as a result of recent results, we're getting a far lower line to work with. I feel thats providing us with excellent value on what should be a highly motivated home team. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. These teams are going in opposite directions. Fighting for a playoff spot, the Blazers are now 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS in March. Last time out, they blew out the Knicks. They've since had a day off. On the other hand, the T-Wolves are now 0-5 SU/ATS their last five games. They've given up an average of 118.6 ppg during that stretch. Off last night's loss at LA, the T-Wolves are now 10-25 SU and 13-22 ATS on the road. Note that the T-Wolves are also 11-33 SU their last 44 when playing the second of b2b games. The Blazers won by six when these teams met at Minnesota on New Year's Day. Playing at home, with more to play for and with the schedule in their favor, I expect an even bigger margin of victory tonight. 

I'm playing on OREGON 10* BEST BET. Needless to say, Kansas is a very strong team. The Jayhawks have been extremely impressive, blowing out all three opponents that they faced. Teams rarely crush every opponent though and I expect them to get their first real test here. The Ducks are also a very good team, well-balanced, experienced and well-coached. They've also shown an ability to win "close games." They won their last two games by one point and three points. While that may not be as impressive as what Kansas has done, I expect that "close game experience" to serve them well here. After scoring 90 or more in all three games, Kansas can obviously score points with the best of them. That doesn't figure to phase the Ducks though. They're 25-12 ATS their last 37 against teams that score 77 or more points per game, 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven. With the Jayhawks only 5-8 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 150s, I'm taking the generous points.

I'm playing on BAYLOR 10* GAME OF YEAR. As many of you are likely aware, my biggest play from the second round was on South Carolina over Duke. So, I'm certainly aware of what the Gamecocks have done thus far and respect them as a team. That said, they had a very big advantage in their first two games, as they were able to play in their home state. That's no longer the case, as they'll be facing Baylor at MSG. Having the support of the crowd was a huge help in beating Marquette and Duke. 

The Gamecocks defense is their strength. However, the Bears are every bit as good in that departement. The Gamecocks allow 65.2 ppg. The Bears allow only 63.5. Baylor's zone defense should match up very well against a South Carolina team which typically doesn't shoot well from beyond the arc. 

While the Gamecocks don't score as many points on the road as they do at home, the Bears score just as many points on the road.  South Carolina connects on 41.9% of its field goals on the road and overall, the Bears hit 47.7% of their shots on the road. While South Carolina is averaging 73.4 ppg on 40% shooting its past five games, Baylor is averaging 76.6 ppg its last five, connecting on a whopping 49.3% of its field goals. Indeed, the offense is currently clicking on all cylinders. 

With both Villanova and Duke out of the way, the Bears are the highest seed left in the East Region. Note that coach Scott Drew is now 9-2 against teams with a lower seed. The Bears are well-coached, athletic, experienced and tough on both sides of the ball. Expect them to punch their ticket to the Elite 8, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Pacers have alternated wins and losses for 14 straight games now. Off a loss at Boston, I expect them to bounce back and continue that pattern for at least another day. Both these teams are much better on their home floor. Off an impressive win against the Cavs last time out, the Nuggets are 20-17 at home. However, they're just 14-20 on the road. Meanwhile, the Pacers are an ugly 11-25 on the road but an impressive 25-10 at home. Last time on this floor, they beat Utah by seven. That brought them to a perfect 5-0 here, dating back to 2/24. All five of those wins came by a minimum of four points and they came by an average of nearly 12. The Pacers won by four when they hosted the Nuggets last season, a game in which they were laying -9.5 points. Obviously, we're getting a far more favorable line here. The Nuggets crushed the Pacers 140-112 when these teams met at London back in January. Playing at home, I expect the Pacers to get some payback this evening. *GOW