Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The T-Wolves aren't favored often. However, they're favored here for good reason and I expect a win and cover. OKC is off a game yesterday. This will be Thunder's fifth game in the past eight days and fourth straight on the road. They're banged up and I expect it to catch up with them tonight. With the star center back, the T-Wolves have quietly covered four of their past six. That includes outright wins over the Pelicans, Blazers and Suns. Well-rested and playing arguably their best basketball of the season, venue in their favor, expect the T-Wolves to take advantage of this favorable scheduling situation. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA. The Gators are flying under the radar a bit, in my opinion. They could easily be laying double-digits in this one; Ohio State was -15 against Oral Roberts in the first round. Of course, the Golden Eagles deserve plenty of credit for upsetting the Buckeyes. Doing it twice in a row, however, is an entirely different matter. The Gators rallied when it mattered to take care of Virginia Tech. Now, momentum on their side, they get a dream matchup that they're more than capable of taking advantage of. Oral Roberts is 1-13 (SU) its last 14 against SEC teams. The Gators are 12-7 ATS their last 19, as neutral court favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. Oral Roberts will likely be a popular pick as the Gators aren't getting much respect and many love to back the Cinderella team. I'm not buying it though. Superior defense and athletes, the Gators pull away for a convincing win and cover. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. This is the first of two straight between these teams. They'll meet again Thursday. I believe that the Blazers are going to be the hungrier team for this one. I also feel that they're offering excellent value. Yes, the Pelicans have looked good their last couple of games. However, keep in mind that they're still only 5-12 on the road. The Blazers, on the other hand, are 11-7 at home. Thursday will mark the first of b2b games for the Blazers, as they play Dallas the next night. The Pelicans get a couple days off after Thursday. I mention that to emphasize the importance of winning tonight for the Blazers. Off a loss and having dropped two of three since the break, Portland needs to take care of business tonight. Note that Portland is 4-2 ATS off an upset loss. As for the Pelicans, they're 5-14 SU/ATS after scoring 115 or more points in their previous game and that includes an 0-4 SU/ATS mark after scoring 130 or more. Blazers roll. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. The Rams have done a great job. They lost all their starters from last year and were very young coming into this season. Picked #7 in the preseason, they deserve a lot of credit for getting this far. That said, I feel that their youth will finally catch up with them against an experienced St Bonaventure team. The Bonnies were the opposite of the Rams in that they brought back all their starters from the previous season. While they were only projected to be fourth in the conference, like VCU, the Bonnies exceeded the expectations of many. Still, their spot in this game is arguably far less surprising than VCU. While the teams did split two reg. season meetings, the Bonnies held a 134-121 edge in total points. The Bonnies average the most offensive rebounds in the conference and the Rams give up a lot of them. Ultimately, however, its the Bonnies' superior defense whiich will see them win this one. The Bonnies have allowed 53, 59, 55, 41, 53 and 58 their last six games. No team has reached 60. VCU, on the other hand, has allowed 65 or more points in four of its past five games. VCU should be in great shape next season, but this one belongs to St. Bonaventure. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. We're getting some extra line value with the Pacers due to the fact that they played last night. However, one must always keep in mind that not all b2b spots are equal. In this case, (most of) the Pacers had the All Star Break off, prior to last night. So, they're aren't playing a third game in four nights or anything. Rather, they had a chance to shake off the rust and they should be in good shape tonight. Note that Chris LeVert was held out last night but will make his debut for the Pacers tonight. Even in limited minutes, he provides a boost and some fresh legs. The Pacers are going to be hungry to snap their skid and to avenge an earlier home loss, to these same Suns. While the Suns are obviously no slouches, Indiana has some more really tough games coming up. That makes finding a way to win here that much more urgent. Sabonis is a monster and Brogdon is off a monster game of his own. Look for the revenge-minded Pacers to give their hosts all they can handle with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on CREIGHTON. To their credit, the Hoyas have been playing great. However, they've run into a superior opponent here and I believe that their run will come to a convincing halt. Keep in mind that the Bluejays were expected to finish 2nd in the conference, before the season. Georgetown was projected, by some, to finish last. So, the Hoyas have already exceeded expectations. Eventually, however, talent wins out. The Hoyas managed a major upset of the Bluejays on Feb 3rd, as they were 14 point road underdogs. That woke up the Bluejays though and they crushed the Hoyas in the rematch, a 63-48 beatdown, at Georgetown. Today, the Bluejays catch the Hoyas playing their fourth game in four days. While Gtown had to play on 3/10, Creighton had the day off. That extra day will catch up with the Hoyas here. Look for the Bluejays to blow out the Hoyas, the favorite improving to 5-1 ATS the last six meetings. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE. Michigan has some some chinks in its armor lately. The rival Spartans beat them to close the season and yesterday saw Maryland jump all over them out of the gate. Remember, Illinois pounded them to begin the month, too. While the Wolverines did come back to win and cover yesterday, I expect them to have an even tougher task against a revenge-minded Buckeye team which appears to be peaking at just the right time. Ohio State had been absolutely rolling before a 5-point loss to these same Wolverines on 2/21. That led to a 4-game slide, a 5-game skid at the betting window. The Buckeyes bounced back when it mattered though, beating Minnesota Thursday and Purdue yesterday. Order restored and looking to avenge the loss that started their skid, I expect the best of the Buckeyes in this one. The Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS their last seven, after a SU win. Expect them to give Michigan all it can handle, with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. I like how this one sets up for the Grizzlies. Memphis got a chance to play Wednesday. The Grizzlies looked great, too. I said this of them before that game: "... They can score ... They put up 125 against these same Wizards before the break and are averaging 123 ppg their last three ... " Sure enough, the Grizzlies scored 127. It was an impressive team win, along with a dominant performance (29/20!) from center Valančiūnas. Unlike the Grizzlies, the Nuggets haven't played in a long time. Their last game was on 3/4. Note that Denver is just 4-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Last time in that situation, the Nuggets got blown out by 21. I also like that the Grizzlies have tomorrow off while the Nuggets return home for a big game against Dallas tomorrow. Including a 104-96 win over the Nuggets the last time the teams faced each other, the Grizzlies are 24-11-1 ATS their last 36 against teams from the Northwest. Expect them to improve on those stats Friday night. 

I'm playing on BAYLOR. The Cowboys have been on a great run but I expect it to come to an end in a big way today. Baylor won both this season's meetings by double-digits. The Bears are on a different level. They score 85.3 ppg and they allow just 65.6. By comparison, the Cowboys score 76.7 and allow 72.3. They're 9-2 ATS their last 11 on a neutral court, 3-0 ATS their last three. While dominant at home, the Bears can win on the road, too. The Cowboys learned that the hard way. They had a 34-25 late in the first half in this season's game at Stillwater, but the Bears fought back to win 81-66. Baylor trailed 50-48 with 12 minutes left, then went on a 19-1 run and led by double-digits the rest of the way. Indeed, this team will be hard to keep up with the entire way. Look for yesterday's game vs. K-State to serve as a "wake up call" and for the Bears to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here, en route to a third double-digit win over the Cowboys. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The break figures to be just what the Bucks needed. Rested and refreshed, I expect them to blow out the Knicks. Needless to say, the Bucks haven't forgotten that the Knicks pounded them, at MSG. That 130-110 beating was one of the low points of the first half and the Bucks will be anxious to have their revenge. Note that Milwaukee was favored by 13 points for that game, despite playing on the road. Now, playing at home, we're working with a lower line. Value. The Bucks have beaten the Knicks seven straight times here at Milwaukee. The last three of those wins, all Milwaukee covers, came by 26, 44 and 16 points. This season, the Knicks average 101.3 ppg on the road while the Bucks average 118.6 ppg at home. Payback time. 

I'm playing on UCLA. The Bruins closed the reg. season with three straight losses. Those results have helped us by keep this line lower than it otherwise easily could have been, which I believe is providing us with excellent value. (The Bruins were -11.5 point favorites for this season's lone reg. season meeting.) Note that UCLA is 5-1 ATS the past six times it was off three straight defeats.  The Beavers had a nice run towards the end of the season but got brought back down to earth in a big way by rival Oregon. I don't believe that they're going to be able to keep up with a motivated Bruins team. While the Bruins score 71.2 ppg on the road, the Beavers score just 63.4. The #4 seed is 14-7 all-time vs. the #5 seed, in the Pac 12 tournament. Expect the Bruins to improve on those stats Thursday, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISS. Rice won both regular season meetings but the Owls haven't played well since. I don't believe that they should be favored by this much. Last time out, the Owls barely beat "Our Lady Of The Lake." Prior to that, the Owls had lost four straight, failing to cover in the final three of those. Those losses came by 21, 44 and 43 points. The Golden Eagles have been far more competitive. They're 1-2 SU their final three but both the losses were by single digits. Grab the points but don't be surprised when the Golden Eagles step up and score the upset, setting up a date with Marshall on Wednesday. 

I'm playing on PEPPERDINE. The Cougars are definitely tough and I respect them. The Waves are a lot better than many people realize though. This is a veteran team which has been waiting for this day. The Waves have already beaten BYU once this season (76-73 in the last meeting) and they believe that they're capable of doing so again. I like the fact that Pepperdine already has a tournament game under its belt. It beat Santa Clara 78-70 on Saturday. BYU, on the other hand, hasn't played yet this month. The Cougars are an ugly 43-69 ATS in neutral court games over the years while Pepperdine is a solid 50-39 ATS. That includes a 10-3 ATS mark in the Waves' last 13 neutral site games. The Cougars are 0-2 ATS their last two conf. tourney games, an ugly 11-28 ATS over the years. I expect the Waves to give then all they can handle and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on FURMAN. I believe that the gap between these teams is wider than the pointspread suggests. Consider that Furman was favored by 11 when the teams met in the reg. season. That was at VMI, too. The Keydets actually managed a 1-point win in that one. That works in our favor here, in my opinion, as it will ensure Furman takes take this game for granted. Keep in mind that Furman had won the previous 10 games in the series. The Keydets haven't played since way back on 2/20, which will hurt them here. The Paladins are 8-5 ATS (10-3 SU) off a conference loss. Expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on OLE MISS. The Rebels have a lot working for them here. They're the superior team. They're playing at home. They're looking to avenge an earlier upset loss. They've also got the schedule working in their favor. Both teams played on 3/2. However, the Commodores also went and squeezed a non-conference road game in, at Cincinnati, on 3/4. That's going to catch up with them here. The last time these teams played here, the Rebels were laying -10.5 and won by 26. The Rebels are 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. They're also 7-2 ATS (8-1 SU) the past nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Going back, finds them at 21-9 ATS in that situation. Additionally, the Rebels are 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Catching the Commodores playing their third straight on the road, expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on TEXAS-ARLINGTON. The #3 seed Mavericks are favored for good reason in this one. The #6 seed Trojans score just 60.2 ppg when playing away from home. The Mavericks, on the other hand, score 72 ppg, when playing on the road. These teams didn't meet during the reg. season but they have met in the first week of March, each of the past two years. In both cases, the Mavericks won by double-digits, 78-64 on 3/3/20 and 79-66 on 3/2/19. They were laying -5.5 and -5 for those games. While Troy hasn't won a game in a month, Texas-Arlington is off b2b wins. Playing better basketball, I say the Mavericks take care of the Trojans, once again. *Top Sun Belt Tourney Play

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After getting blown out last game, the Bucks are going to be all busness tonight. They're 33-17 ATS (38-12 SU) the past 50 times that they were off an upset loss. They're also 17-7-1 (19-6 SU) their last 25, after a double-digit loss. The Grizzlies typically can't keep up when high-scoring guests come to town. They're 3-8 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. When the line clmbs to 230 or more, they're 0-3 SU/ATS. In this case, the Bucks average 119.5 ppg on the road while the Grizzlies average 108.5 ppg at home. Look for the "angry" Bucks to put up a really big number and for the Grizzlies to be unable to keep up.

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a unique situation, brought on by Covid. The Bearcats would normally be playing a conference opponent, as would the Commodores. The Bearcats were supposed to host SMU but with that game being put on pause, the teams were able to arrange this one. Not only do I believe it favors the home team, I also believe that a visit from a weak and struggling SEC team is exactly what the Bearcats need. The Bearcats have won six of eight and they nearly beat Memphis last time out. Coach Brannen noted: "I told the guys, 'If you just show that fight for a longer period of time, we would have won that game. I felt like we should have won this game." The Commodores are 3-9 their last 12 games and they got pounded last time out. That was on 3/2, which doesnt allow much time in between games. Not when taking this game on short notice and playing on the road. Cincy, by comparison, hasn't played since 2/27 and hasn't had to travel. The Bearcats are a perfect 17-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, against teams with losing records. Expect them to improve on those stats, while picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on UNLV. On a 10-game winning streak, the Aztecs are tough to beat. Looking to clinch the regular season title, they've still got something to play for. That said, they just won their home finale and they've got bigger games ahead of them. I feel that this will prove to be a tough spot and also that the line is too high. The Rebels have quietly won three of their past four. The lone loss came by three points. After rallying from a 16-point deficit to win by two last time out, UNLV Coach T.J. Otzelberger had this to say: "I felt like down the stretch, even though we still weren’t perfect, it was as together as we’ve been as a team and I could tell in the huddle and as we communicated that the guys felt good about how they were playing together. Hopefully that’s something we can continue to build on as we move forward.”Speaking of close games, the Aztec won by just four points last time out and their previous game went to OT. Look for this one to also prove closer than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers badly need a victory and a date with the Cavs figures to be just what the doctor ordered. When these teams met earlier this season, on 12/31, Indiana won by a score of 119-99.  Yes, the Cavs would like to avenge the earlier loss. However, they're just 6-16 ATS the last 22 times that they played with revenge from an earlier loss. Off their 101-90 win over the Rockets, note that Cleveland is 1-3 ATS (0-4 SU) the past four times it allowed 90 or fewer points in its previous game. I expect a big effort from the Pacers and am laying the points. 

I'm playing on UTAH. I like how this one sets up for the home team. Oregon State has been on an ATS roll but with a big game against archrival Oregon on deck, its going to be tough to focus on the Utes. Utah got back on track with a win over USC last time out and I expect that win to generate some positive momentum. While the Beavers won this season's earlier meeting at OSU, the Utes are a dominant 88-55 ATS over the years when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. Also, note that Utah is 4-2 ATS its past six as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range, a lucrative 29-16 ATS its last 45 in that role. The Utes won by 12 last meeting here and I expect another big win tonight. Lay the points.

I'm playing on NIU. Both teams are going to view this as an opportunity at a rare win. Playing at home, I expect the Huskies to be the team which gets it. While NIU's 23-16 home record the past 2+ seasons is certainly nothing special, it looks really good when compared to Western Michigan's 7-33 road record. This season, the Broncos are getting outscored by an average of 75.9 to 59.1 when playing on the road. With an O/U line in the low 130s, note that the Broncos are 0-7 their last seven games with a total in the 130s. The home team has won four straight in the series, NIU winning the last two here by scored of 72-69 and 76-74. Expect another victory for the home team. 

I'm playing on EVERTON. These teams are going in opposite directions and there's a big class difference, in my opinion. Southampton is a mess right now and is off a 3-0 loss to Leeds. The Saints haven't won in their last eight EPL matches, losing seven of those. Everton, on the other hand, is off a big 2-0 win over Liverpool, the type of victory that can build confidence. Southampton's best chance would be complacency from the home side. However, given the fact that the Saints beat the Toffees 2-0 in this season's earlier meeting, that won't happen. Payback time. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Knicks have played fairly well. Last night's win brought them to 500 on the season. In the East, that's good enough to have them tied with the Raptors, with the fourth best record. Only Philadelphia, Brooklyn and Milwaukee have been better. The Knicks are still 7-10 on the road though and this is a tough spot. While they were leaving it all on the floor, in eking out the 3-point win at MSG, the Pistons were resting, waiting for them. The Pistons know that they'll face these same Knicks at MSG, where NY is 10-7, in a few days. They also know that they're 3-15 on the road (compared to 6-9 at home) and that they won't have the schedule in their favor for that 3/4 game. That makes taking care of business this evening imperative. Note that the Knicks are 0-3 ATS in 2021, when playing on the road, after playing the previous day. Losses were at Chicago, Sacramento and Charlotte. Schedule and venue in their favor, look for the Pistons to move to 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division teams. 

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. These teams met a couple of days ago. The Aggies jumped out to a big lead but took their foot off the gas late and allowed Nevada to sneak in for the late cover. I expect them to have learned their lesson and look for them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. While they were off b2b losses entering last game, the Aggies now have their momentum back. They're 9-2 SU/ATS off a conf. win. They're also still a healthy 11-5 ATS as favorites. Nevada did a good job Friday considering it had a long layoff before that game. That layoff figures to catch up with them in this one though. I say the Aggies complete the sweep in "blowout fashion." 

I'm playing on ORLANDO. This one sets up nicely for the home underdog. The Jazz are off a rare loss last night. While they were battling, the Magic were resting, waiting for them. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Jazz will be playing their third game in four nights. Having just facing the defending Eastern Conf. champs last night, after having faced the defending NBA champs in their previous game, its going to be hard for the Jazz to "get up" for the lowly Magic. Mitchell and Gobert had 36 and 37 hard minutes last night while Conley and O'Neal chipped in roughly 33 each. It wouldn't be a shock to see someone get the night off, though I'm certainly not going to count on that. Either way, I look for the minutes to cactch up with them and won't be surprised when the Magic are in this the entire way. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE STATE. With all due respect to Eastern Kentucky, I believe that this line will prove to be too high. The Tigers, admittedly, have underachieved this season. They're usually competitive though, the majority of their losses coming by "two touchdowns" or less. One of their losses which came by more than that was at home against these same Colonels. I expect that blowout loss to provide some added motivation for the Tigers here. Having just snapped Belmont's 21-game winning (30-game OVC) streak last game, I won't be shocked if and when the Colonels have a bit of a letdown against the lowly Tigers. Grab the generous points and look for this one to be a lot closer than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on STANFORD. The Cardinal won by 10 when these teams met at OSU, in January. I expect another double-digit win today. This is one of Stanford's best roles. The Cardinal are a perfect 4-0 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when listed as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. They haven't forgotten that the Beavers swept them last season and they'll be happy to return the favor this year. The last time that the Cardinal were off b2b losses, they responded by blowing out Cal, winning by 15. The previous time that they were off b2b losses, they responded with an outright win (and cover) against UCLA. Expect them to bounce back big once again. 

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. Nevada is in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, the Aggies are going to be in an angry mood. The last time that they were off b2b losses, the Aggies reeled off consecutive SU/ATS victories, winning by nine and 16 points. Even off the b2b losses, the Aggies are still 11-4 SU/ATS in conference play. They've outscored conf. opponents by an average score of 76.1 to 60.3. Its important to note that the Aggies were off a long Covid layoff prior to the two losses. The shoe is on the other foot this time though. This time, Utah State is hosting a team which has had a long layoff. Nevada hasn't played since 2/7. Nevada has played just two road games the past six weeks and went 0-2 SU/ATS in those games. Lay the points. 

I'm playing on OKC. The Hawks are a good young team, capable of beating the likes of Boston, as they did last time out. That was at home though and they're only 6-9 on the road. They're also just 1-4 SU/ATS when off an 'upset' victory. Off the big win over Boston and with a pair of games against Miami on deck, I won't be surprised if they get surprised tonight. The Thunder play hard nearly every night and are off a victory over the Spurs. They've allowed 108 or fewer points in four straight games. The Thunder are 7-5 ATS in non-conf. games this season and 14-9 ATS their last 23 against Southeast teams. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on CAL. Both these teams will be viewing this game as a chance at a rare conference victory. Playing at home and looking to avenge an earlier road loss, I expect the Bears to be the team which rises to the occasion and gets it. Note that the Bears are 6-3 ATS their last nine in the revenge role. Cal is also 5-2 ATS the past seven times it was a home underdog of three or less, all five wins came outright. During that span, the Beavers were 0-2 ATS (and SU) as road favorites of three or less. The Bears have outscored visiting teams by a 68.4 to 67 margin here. Not great but much better than being outscored by an average of 68.3 to 61, which is the case for the Beavers, when on the road. The Bears eked out a close one the last time these teams met here and they've won 18 of the past 21 as the home team in this series. Payback time. 

I'm playing on DENVER. I really like how this one sets up for the home team. The Wizards are at the end of a Western Conf. road trip. They're already looking forward to getting home. The Nuggets, on the other hand, take to the road after this game. They're going to be anxious to to pick up a victory before they go. Additional motivation stems from the fact that the Wizards upset them, at Washington, earlier. The Nuggets are 53-33 SU and 47-37-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, in the revenge role. In terms of line value, consider that Denver was favored by eight points, at Washington, just over a week ago. The Nuggets also lost at Washington last season. However, the game here at Denver saw them win by 13. I say the Nuggets pull away for another double-digit win on Thursday. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. It would be easy to make a case for the Seminoles. They've been playing very well and are off a road win. They also blew out the Hurricanes in this season's earlier meeting. Meanwhile, Miami is off a blowout loss. While all that may seem to point to the Noles, its actually working in Miami's favor. For starters, we're now working with a very generous line. Consider that the earlier meeting, at FSU, had a line of -11.5. Last year's game here at Miami had a line of -6. Speaking of last year, the Canes also got blown out on the road but the game here was close the entire way, decided by only four points. The Canes are 8-5 ATS their last 13, when off three or more consec. losses. They're also 8-5 ATS as underdogs and 2-0 ATS when attempting to avenge a blowout loss of 20 or more points. Meanwhile, the Noles are just 3-10 ATS against sub-500 teams, the past 2+ seasons. With FSU potentially looking ahead to UNC, grab the points with the revenge-minded visitors. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. I like how this one sets up for the home team. The Pacers have had some unexpected time off. One game got ppd due to weather. Another got ppg due to Covid-testing. It wasn't an issue on the Pacers' end though. So, they've been able to keep practicing, while also getting some much needed rest. The ability to hold several days of practice just doesnt happen during this short, compacted season. I expect them to make the most of their unique break and look for them to be refreshed for tonight's game. On the other hand, the Warriors are off a win at MSG last night. Curry led the way with another great game. However, keep in mind that he'd missed his previous game, feeling disoriented. Two games in two days could catch up with them. Either way, I like how the Pacers match up against this team. They handled them at Golden State and I look for another win and cover for the Pacers tonight. 

I'm playing on RICHMOND. Not only are the Spiders the stronger team and playing at home, they've also got a scheduling advantage. While Richmond has been playing recently, the Minutemen have not. UMass has only played three times since 1/18 and hasn't played a game since 2/6. Thats a long layoff and will likely lead to some rust. It should be noted that the Minutemen may be missing some players, too. These teams last met a year ago, in late February of 2020. Richmond won 95-71, covering by double-digits. Schedule in their favor, look for the Spiders to pull away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. With the Wizards on a bit of a roll and the Lakers short-handed, we're getting a far lower line than we normally would. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Wizards still have issues and the Lakers still have Lebron. Speaking of Lebron, he's going to be highly motivated to show that he can still get it done, sans Davis. The last time that the Lakers dropped two in a row, they responded by beating Boston, on the road. The last time that they faced the Wizards, they won by 22. Lebron had 23 points and 11 assists and took the fourth quarter off. Look for him to lead the way once again, the champs bouncing back with an important win and cover. 

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. The Red Raiders have had this one circled. You may recall that the Cowboys upset them, in OT, back on the second day of January. Off back-to-back losses, they're going to be extremely hungry for this one. The last time that the Raiders lost two in a row, they responded with a win and cover on the road, at LSU. Note that Texas Tech is 10-4 SU/ATS the past 14 times it played with one or less day's rest in between games. The Cowboys, who have lost some players since the first meeting, are just 9-14 ATS the past 23 times that they were road underdogs of three or less. Lay the points with the revenge-minded visitors. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. After a dreadful homestand, the Kings will be happy to hit the road. In fact, they've been better on the road overall this season. They're 7-3 ATS (5-5 SU) through 10 games, away from Sacramento. The Bulls, on the other hand, are just 5-8-1 ATS (5-9 SU) at home. While the Kings had last night off, the Bulls are off a hard-fought loss at Philadelphia. The Kings know that this road trip gets a lot tougher after this, as their next two games are at Milwaukee and Brooklyn. Armed with this knowledge, they know that they desperately need to stop the bleeding tonight. They won big here (98-81 with a line of 2) last season. Schedule in their favor, I expect another win and cover this evening. 

I'm playing on TENNESEE STATE. Sometimes, all is takes is one win to get a team going. The Tigers finally snapped their losing streak with a win and cover last time out. I expect that victory to provide a spark and I look for them to carry the positive momentum into Saturday's game. I also believe that they're providing excellent value. Consider that the line was -7 for the earlier meeting and that was AT Jacksonville State. Despite playing on the road, the Tigers gave the Gamecocks all they could handle. Jacksonville State won by a single point. The Tigers won both last season's meetings, too. This is a team they feel very comfortable playing against. The Tennessee State defense does a very good job at forcing opponents to turn the ball ove. In fact, they do so on 23.1 % of all possessions, the 28th-best rate among Div. I teams. Jacksonville State, meanwhile, ranks 303rd in that category, forcing turnovers on just 16.7% of possessions. The Gamecocks are off a loss and they're just 1-3 ATS the past four times that they were favored on the road, in the -6.5 to -9 range. Grab the points but don't be surprised when the Tigers score the outright win. 

I'm playing on FULHAM. I like Fulham to win this battle of the bottom-feeders. Both teams are desperate for points but the the damage is already done for Sheffield. While the difference in the standings (Fulham is 18th, Sheffield 20th) may not seem like much, I believe that there is quite a difference between the two clubs. Fulham has scored more and allowed less. A -12 goal differential compared to a -25 mark. Fulham is undefeated in its last three league matches while Sheffield has dropped each of its last two. Fulham have quietly lost only once it is last six EPL matches, after an impressive 2-0 win over Everton. Fulham won 3-0 the last time the teams played here. Expect another victory. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Thunder are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Bucks are feeling like I am right now. Mad. Angry about losing, enough is enough. The skid ends here. Not only have the Bucks dropped an unheard of five in a row, one of those losses came against these same Thunder. The Bucks are still 16-7-1 ATS (18-6 SU) the past 24 times that they were off a double-digit loss though, 4-2 ATS this season. During that span, they're also 32-17 ATS (37-12 SU) when off an "upset" loss. Playing the second of b2b games may be just what the doctor ordered, too. The last time that the Bucks played their second game in two nights resulted in a 124-99 victory. Speaking of "blowouts," the Bucks also struggled at OKC (won by 2, laying -9) a bit last season. However, when the teams met here, almost exactly one year ago, the Bucks crushed the Thunder by 47 points. Look for them to "get healthy" at OKC's expense tonight. 

I'm playing on Purdue Fort Wayne. To their credit, the Vikings have played well this season. They still don't score that many points though, as they average only 69.7 ppg. On the road, that number dips to 65.4. Meanwhile, they allow 71.7 on the road. That makes laying points on the road a tough task. Off four straight road games, the Mastadons are going to be very happy to return home. They score a healthy 78.7 ppg here, while allowing 78.4. While the Vikings connect on 41.8% of their field goals, the Mastadons have a 46% field goal percentage. In conference play, the climbs above 47%. After a string of non-covers, the Mastadons broke through with a cover (2 point loss) at Youngstown State last time out. Note that Fort Wayne is 5-1 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. These teams met twice earlier in the season, the Vikings won both but each was decided by single-digits. The first of those, a 2-point Clev. State win, saw the Mastadons favored by -2 points. Now, we're getting a handful of points. I believe thats providing excellent value and while I'm expecting the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE STATE. The Tigers haven't been covering. However, a date with the rival Golden Eagles is just what the doctor ordered. The Eagles have dropped 14 straight on the road. They've been outscored in those games by an average of 78.2 to 63.5. While the Eagles are 0-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of three or less, the Tigers are quietly a perfect 3-0 ATS as home favorites of three or less. Tech won by three, at home, in this season's earlier meeting. However, the Tigers won by 15 in the last game played here, almost exactly a year ago. Expect the revenge-minded Tigers to break through with another victory today, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Gamecocks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. South Carolina has been hit hard by Covid and has missed a lot of games, as a result. Its started to catch up with the Gamecocks; they've lost three straight and seven of their last nine. Don't expect the Vols to show them any mercy. Off a loss of their own, the Vols are going to be all business. The last time that they were off a loss, the Vols went on the road and beat Kentucky by nine points. Tennessee outscores teams by a 76.7 to 60.8 margin at home. Meanwhile, South Carolina gives up 76.9 ppg on the road. While the on the road, the Gamecocks allow their hosts to hit 46.5% of their field goals. The Vols, on the other hand, hold visitng teams to a 39.4 field goal percentage. Expect that vastly superior defense to prove the difference as the Vols pull away for a double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Embid was a late scratch on Monday. That surely didn't help the 76ers' cause at Utah. As of this writing, it appears promising (currently probable) that Embid will be back for tonight's game. However, with or without him, the 76ers have more than enough to take care of Houston. Indeed, a home game vs. the Rockets is much different than a road game against the Jazz. The Rockets have dropped six straight games. They're getting outscored by a 120.4 to 101.4 average score over their last five games, four of those five resulting in double-digit losses. The 76ers have the best home record in the East and are tied for the fewest home losses in the league. Expect a highly motivated effort and for them to win this one in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Jazz have been on an extended run and continue to play well. However, tonight, they'll be without Conley and taking on a very good Philadelphia team, one which is anxious to close out its trip on a winning note and one which always plays them tough. Note that the 76ers have the best record in the East, the only Eastern Conference team currently winning more than 60% of its games. Also, note that the Jazz are 0-4-1 ATS their last five against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The 76ers beat the Jazz by nine at Phily last season and they lost by only two, here at Utah. Including those results, the 76ers are 6-0 ATS the last six in the series, the 2-point loss and five outright wins. With the 76'ers last three games all decided by single digits, this figures to be another close one. Look for the 76ers to give the Jazz all they can handle with a great shot at another outright win. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Two of the past four meetings between these rivals have been decided by four points or less. I beleve these teams are very evenly matched and I'm expecting another close one this evening. The Huskies haven't won for awhile. However, they lost by only three against UCLA last time out and a date with the Cougars provides reason for hope. Indeed, this is a team they have a real chance of beating. WSU, which lost by nine on Saturday, is just 1-4-1 ATS (1-5 SU) the past six times it played with one or less day's rest in between games. The Huskies come in absolutely hungry for a conference victory and looking to avenge an earlier loss at Washington. Grab the points and look for them to improve to 10-6 ATS the past 16 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. I like what I've seen from the Mavs recently. They've won four straight and are getting stronger. Over their last five games, they're averaging a whopping 127.6 points. After eking out wins over Golden State and Minnesota, they rallied from a big deficit to beat Atlanta two games ago. Then, last time out, they pounded the Pelicans, putting up 143 points in the process. Doncic and Porzingis were unstoppable. The Blazers have also been playing well, as they're off three straight wins. Those were all at home though. Their last road game resulted in a double-digit loss at MSG. Though the Blazers beat them in the bubble last summer, the Mavs won by eight when the teams played here at Dallas. Expect another win and cover this evening, the Mavs improving to 5-2 ATS when off a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA STATE. The Beavers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Not only are the Sun Devils angry after getting beaten up by Oregon, they also haven't forgotten the earlier 1-point loss at Oregon State. That result notwithstanding, the Sun Devils are the more talented team in this matchup. Playing at home and highly motivated to bounce back with a victory, I expect them to demonstrate it on Sunday evening. Prior to the 1/16 game, the Sun Devils had beaten the Beavers four straight times. Five of the Beavers' last six losses have been by a minimum of nine points. Payback time. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA. I'm projecting a double-digit win for the Panthers in this one. Both teams lost big last time out but Northern Iowa is much better equipped to bounce back. The Panthers have won six of the past seven meetings. Each of the past three resulted in double-digit wins for the Panthers. Te Crusaders are averaging only 61.8 ppg on the road and they may not even get that many today. Last game, they scored 52, while giving up 76. That was at home. Their last two road games have seen them score 51 and 52 points, respectively. The Crusaders also managed just 51 points the last time that these teams met. The fact that Northern Iowa has struggled at the betting window has helped keep this line reasonable. That changes today, the Panthers keeping the pedal to the metal and pulling away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Mavs have started to win, they just haven't been covering. Tonight, however, a SU win should also result in an ATS win. I expect that to be the case. I really liked what I saw from the Mavs last game. They were down big to Atlanta but rallied to win the game by a point. While that wasn't enough for the cover, it was enough to build positive momentum for this game. I successfully played against the Pelicans in their last game, a double-digit loss at Chicago, and noted that they haven't been playing well on the road. The Mavs have dominated the Pelicans franchise here for years and they did so again last season. Expect homecourt to prove significant as the Mavs win their fourth straight. 

I'm playing on MANHATTAN. I love the setup here. The Gaels haven't played since way back on Dec. 23rd. That's a 51-day layoff, the longest in school history. Rick Pitino acknowledged the following: "We're out of shape right now. Mentally and physically, we're not a basketball team, but still make the best of where we're at." Keep in mind that 17 players and staff test positive for Covid. Note that the Gaels are 1-6 SU/ATS the past seven times that they played with seven or more day's rest in between games. Unlike Iona, Manhattan has been playing regularly. Four of the Jaspers last five games have been decided by five or less. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE STATE. The Tigers have really struggled at the betting window. That's led to them getting a generous amount of points for this evening's game vs. Morehead State. I feel that they're catching the Eagles at the right time. The Eagles are off an emotional 1-point win and they've got Belmont on deck. If there's ever a game to "look ahead" to, that's the one. While Morehead State has won 11 straight games and sits in second place, Belmont is a perfect 14-0 and atop the conference. That will be the biggest game of the season, to date, for the Eagles. I absolutely feel that they could already have that game in the back of their minds. That'll prove costly though as the Tigers have played them tough recently. In fact, Tennessee State has won three of the past four meetings outright, the lone loss coming by three points. Each of the past two meetings here came down to the wire, as they were decided by just four combined points. Look for this one to also prove much closer than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on LSU. Off b2b losses, the Tigers are going to be highly motivated to get back on track here. The last time that they had lost two in a row, they went on the road and hammered Texas A&M. Including a 92-88 victory in their last visit here, the Tigers are 9-4 ATS their last 13, when listed as a road underdog of three or fewer points. While the Bulldogs average 70.8 ppg, the Tigers average 81.5 ppg. LSU Coach Wade knows how important this game is. He had this to say: "All of them will be critical down the stretch here. We certainly have to win some games; we haven't won some games lately. You always say 'must-win, must-win, must-win,' but we just have to pick up as many wins as we can down the stretch. This is the next one, so this one's obviously critically important. But we've got to pick up some wins, win some games." Expect Wade's team to benefit from Saturday's open date as they come ready to play and score the minor upset. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bulls have both the schedule and the venue in their favor. I believe that they're providing us with excellent value as home underdogs. While the Bulls had last night off, the Pelicans are off a big win against Houston. While that game wasn't entirely taxing for the starters, due to its blowout nature, it was still a revenge win against a divisional opponent. Houston had hammered them at New Orleans, just over a week earlier. Thats the type of win that could have them ripe for a letdown, when facing a non-conf. team like Chicago, particularly with another divisional opponent (Dallas) on deck. The Pelicans are 1-3 their last four road games and that lone victory came by a single point. Even off last night's win, they're still just 4-7 ATS as favorites. The Bulls, meanwhile, are 11-5 ATS as underdogs. The Bulls are also 3-1 SU/ATS when off an upset loss. Last night, the Pelicans caught Houston playing its second game in two days. Shoe on the other foot, look for the Bulls to score the upset. 

I'm playing on KENTUCKY. Wrong place, wrong time for the Razorbacks. It was already going to be difficult enough for Arkansas but the Razorbacks are dealing with some injury issues. Desi Sills, who has played in all 85 games since the start of the 2018/19 season is questionable. Even if he does go, in order to keep the consec. games streak in tact, he's likely going to be less than 100%. Others are in the same boat, too. Regardless of which of the questionable players suit up for Arkansas, they'll be facing a hostile and highly motivated Kentucky team. The Wildcats are off three straight losses. The last time that they were in this spot, off three straight SU setbacks, they hammered LSU by double-digits. They're 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times that they'd failed to cover three in a row, too. The Wildcats have dominated the Razorbacks here over the years. Expect them to bounce back with a much-needed victory. 

I'm playing on KANSAS. The fact that these teams appear to be headed in opposite directions has kept the line much lower than it could have otherwise been. In my opinion, the Cowboys are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Off a loss at WVU and looking for payback from last month's loss at OK State, the Jayhawks are going to be in an ugly mood. Kansas is a perfect 8-0 SU the past eight times that it attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. During that span, the Jayhawks are also a perfect 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS, after having allowed 80 or more points in their previous game. Going back further finds that has been a lucrative situation (65-34 ATS L99!) for them for years. The Jayhawks have indeed struggled on the road. However, they remain very hard to beat at home. Visiting teams are averaging only 60.8 ppg here, while connecting on just 38.3% of their field goals. Its true that the the Cowboys have been playing really well. That said, they're off an emotionally and physically exhausting double-OT win 48 hours ago, which figures to take a toll here. Note that the Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 go 6 range. Kansas won 83-58 when these teams played here a year ago. While much has changed since that time, I'm expecting this year's result to remain the same, a win and cover for Kansas. 

I'm playing on KC. Talk about a dream matchup. Brady, considered by many to be the greatest of all-time, against Mahomes, arguably the greatest right now. With all due respect to Brady, I do believe that Mahomes is "currently" the better QB. He plays at a different level and does things that other QBs simply can't do. He doesn't get phased either. Unflappable. You saw them turn the ball over and fall behind early against Buffalo in the Conf. Championship game. Mahomes didn't blink. He calmly led them back. Remember last year's playoffs? The Chiefs were behind by double-digits EVERY game. Yet, they went on to win the Super Bowl. That includes the game against the Texans where they down 24-0. They won 51-31. While I don't expect the Chiefs to fall behind by double-digits in this one, its a comfortable feeling knowing that Mahomes is never out of it. 

Though Arians got the better of a young Matt LaFleur in the NFC title game, I believe that Andy Reid gives the Chiefs a coaching advantage. I firmly believe that he's a better coach than he was earlier in his career. Here's an excerpt of what I said about Reid prior to last year's SB: "... Sometimes you need to lose, before you can win. Andy Reid has felt the pain of losing. Of coming so close to winning it all, only to come up short. Recall the 24-21 Super Bowl loss by Reid and the McNabb led Eagles team in 2005. McNabb was among the first to congratulate Reid, stating 'thats my coach, best I ever had.' Indeed, most of his players, past and present, love Reid. I believe he's a better coach than he used to be. That he's learned from his failures. The Chiefs, as a team, have had a small taste of the pain that Reid knows all too well. Recall how close they were to reaching the Super Bowl, only to come up short, last season. They've felt what its like to lose and they know how hard it is to get here. Now, they've taken the next step and I believe they're ready to seal the deal. With all due respect to McNabb, who was a great QB in his own right, Mahomes is playing a different level. He can calmly pick defenses apart, beating them short or long. If thats not there, he beats you with his legs. In four playoff games, he's got 11 TDs and 0 interceptions. We've seen the Chiefs show the ability to come back. They fell behind against the Titans last game, no problem. Down 24-0 against the Texans. Whatever. They rallied to crush them. Sure, the 49ers ran all over the Packers. Henry ran all over everyone though and the Chiefs stopped him. While I obvsiously, respect the 49er defense, I feel that its Andy Reid's time ..."

Mahomes outplayed Brady here back in November. I expect him to do so again, the Chiefs hoisting the trophy for the second straight year, while covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on FAIRFIELD. I believe that the wrong team is favored in this one. While it was awhile ago now, the Stags got on track with a win in their last game. Playing at home, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this afternoon's game. Note that they're 3-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing with seven or more day's rest in between games. The Bobcats, who have also been off for some time, are 0-4 when playing away from home this season, 0-2 on the road and 0-2 at neutral sites. The Stags are 4-2 ATS the past six times that they were home underdogs of three or fewer points. While Qunnipiac has had their number in recent seasons, I say things change on Sunday afternoon. Grab the points but expect the Stags to score the minor upset. 

I'm playing on HOFSTRA. These teams met yesterday. Drexel jumped off to a big early lead and Hofstra was unable to climb all the way back. Hofstra showed plenty of "pride" in battling back though, eventually losing by only two. I expect the Pride to build off their strong 44-32 second half and look for them to get off to a much better start in this one. Prior to yesterday, Hofstra had dominated Drexel in recent meetings. In yesterday's game, the Dragons shot 61.9% (62.5% of 3's) from the field, to Hofstra's 37.5%. Yet, Hofstra still managed to almost pull off the victory. Those percentages won't be like that again today. Revenge-minded Hofstra cools down the Drexel shooters and gets some immediate payback. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. These teams met on Thursday. The Warriors were pretty short-handed and played with a small lineup. That didn't stop them from embarrassing the Mavericks by a score of 147-116. That wasn't just a regular loss, coach Carlisle calling it a "difficult lesson." Desperate to avoid seeing their season slip away and also highly motivated to avenge that blowout, I absolutely expect to see the best of the Mavs on Saturday night. Note that Dallas has dominated the Warriors in recent seasons, Thursday notwithstanding. The previous four games saw the Mavs win by scores of 124-97, 141-121, 142-94 and 126-91. Oubre scored a career high (40) in points on Thursday and that won't happen again. Doncic will be on a mission from the opening tip. While things might seem bleak for the Mavs at the moment, they've got a stretch of winnable games ahead. I expect them to start by taking care of business in this one, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on ODU. This line went up overnight and I believe thats providing us with excellent value. Note that each of the last six meetings between these teams was decided by single digits and that four of those games were decided by five or fewer points. In fact, in the six games, Marshall only outscored ODU by two total points, 431-429. Indeed, these games are usually close which makes getting those extra points all that more significant. The Monarchs were dealt a blow early when star Jason Wade was ruled out for the season. They've had a few months to adapt though and still have quite a deep and experienced team.Both teams have been off for a long time. Marshall is already 0-2 ATS when playing with seven or more day's rest in between games this season. True, the Herd have been pretty good on the road. The Monarchs are undefeated at home though and they're 5-1 ATS their last six home games against teams which win more than 60% of their games on the road. Expect another close one and grab the points. 

I'm playing on CREIGHTON. The favorite is 5-2 ATS the past seven times that these teams faced each other. I expect those stats to improve after Wednesday night. The Hoyas managed a 1-point home win last time out. However, they'd lost their previous four games and they're 0-4 ATS the past four times that they were off a SU win, 3-11-1 ATS their last 15 off a conference win. The Hoyas are also 1-6 ATS their last seven on the road. While the poiintspread might seem a little high, I believe that it could easily be higher. Its stayed "reasonable" thanks partly due to the Bluejays not covering much recently. Note that Creighton was laying -13.5 for the last meeting (won by 15) and the gap between the teams is bigger this season. Keep in mind that Creighton returned four starters from last year while Georgetown returned one. Including last season's win, the Bluejays are 3-1 ATS the past four times that they were favored in the -12.5 to -15 range. I say this one gets ugly.

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Nittany Lions are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. These teams just played, at Penn State, on 1/30. The Nittany Lions protected their homecourt with a 81-71 victory. Tonight, however, its the Badgers who are playing at home. They've got a chance for some immediate payback and I fully expect them to make the most of it. The Badgers are already 3-0 SU/ATS off a loss in Big Ten play this season. After losing to Maryland, they beat Minnesota by double-digits. After losing to Michigan, they went on the road and beat Rutgers. Most recently. after a loss to Ohio State, they went on the road and defeated Maryland, avenging the earlier loss to the Terps. With an O/U line in the high 130s, note that Wisconsin is a dominant 35-4 SU and 26-12-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers suffered a 4th quarter collapse against the 76ers last time out. I lost with them in that game and obviously wasn't happy about it. However, with the schedule and venue in their favor, I'm more than willing to give them another chance tonight. While Indiana had last night off, the Grizzlies are off a road win at San Antonio. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, this will also be their third game in the past four days. That had been preceded by an extended layoff, so the sudden three games in four days may prove a bit of a shock to the system. Either way, I expect the Grizzlies to have their hands full against an angry Indiana team. The Pacers swept the season series last year. The most recent resulted in a double-digit win with all five starters scoring at least 14 points. Brogdon had 19 while Sabonis had an 18/14/8 stat-line before fouling out. Off the painful loss to the 76ers and knowing they've got a tough game on deck tomorrow, the Pacers won't squander this opportunity. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. I really like how this one sets up for the Pelicans. The Kings have have already a successful road trip. However, they lost their last game by a single point and this is the final game of the trip. I think they could easily get caught thinking about what might have been and/or about the return trip home. The Pelicans lost last time out, after having won their previous two. Having struggled in January, they know they absolutely need to take advantage of the fact the Kings are at the end of a trip. Note that NO is 2-0 SU/ATS its last two home games against the Kings, 6-2 SU/ATS its past eight. The Pelicans are 20-13 ATS their last 33, off an upset loss. With the Kings just 9-15 ATS (5-19 SU) their last 24 road games, when the O/U line was 230 or more, look for the Pelicans to deliver the win and cover. 

I'm playing on ILLINOIS STATE. Analysis to follow

I'm playing on ASU. Its been tough sledding at the betting window for the Sun Devils. Tonight, however, thanks to all those previous ATS losses, the number is so small that a SU victory should also result in a cover. That's what I'm expecting. The Sun Devils won the past two meetings with Stanford by scores of 74-69, at Stanford and 80-62 here at ASU. They catch the Cardinal dealing with several injuries. That includes the likes of Ziaire Williams, Daejon Davis and Bryce Willis, all key players. Those losses will hurt them here. While Stanford is 12-18 its past 30 on the road, ASU is 28-12 its past 40 at home. Expect the Sun Devils to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE. These teams will battle each other on both Friday and Saturday. While the ATS wins haven't been there, this is a better Arkansas State team than last season. The Red Wolves will be anxious to demonstrate that point against the Mavericks, a team which swept them last season. The Red Wolves have one of the better backcourts in the conference and that should give them an edge in this one. While Texas-Arlington is 15-24 SU its last 39 on the road, Arkansas State is 25-12 SU at home, during the same span. The Mavs are 1-4 ATS their last five on the road and they're shooing just 36.6% from the field their last five games overall. The Red Wolves, on the other hand, are hitting 52.5% of their field goals at home, outscoring teams by an average of 87.8 to 64.5 in games here. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. The Thunder generally fight hard. However, they won't outwork their opponent tonight and they're overmatched in the talent department. The Nets are going to be highly motivated; they haven't forgotten that these same Thunder upset them at Brooklyn earlier. (The Thunder also won at Brooklyn in 2020.) The Nets followed that 1/10 loss by winning four in a row. Now, they've also won three in a row. Those have been close wins though and they're going to be itching for a "feel good blowout" against a team that upset them. Note that they're 59-43-1 ATS in the revenge role the past few seasons. I expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on ASU. Its been a tough stretch at the betting window for backers of the Sun Devils. Tonight, however, should provide an excellent opportunity for a big win. The Sun Devils already won by eight at Berkeley. They beat the Bears by double-digits the last meeting here. In fact, they've beaten them six straight times. The two games here were won by an average of 20.5 points. Overall, ASU is 27-12 SU at home the past 2+ seasons while Cal is 3-26 SU on the road. The Sun Devils have thrived as home favorites of this size the past few seasons, too. They're 3-0 ATS their last three, as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. During the same span, the Bears were a money-burning 1-6 ATS as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. After losing to Arizona, ASU coach Bobby Hurley had this to say: "I've got to do a better job of getting us ready to play early in the game. I commend our effort in the second half, but the cabinet is filled with moral victories, so I’m not really that enthusiastic." With an opportunity to stop the skid, expect Hurley to have his team ready to go from the opening tip and for them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Sooners' recent hot streak has kept this line lower than it easily could have been. I feel thats providing excellent value with the Longhorns. Keep in mind that Oklahoma's wins have been coming at home. The Sooners' last three road games have ALL resulted in loses. They dropped those games at Xavier, Baylor and Kansas by an average of 14 points, two of the three losses coming by double-digits. While some may be concerned about the Longhorns' extended layoff, another potential factor helping to keep the line down, lets not forget the game against Kansas. That was a 1/2 game and the Longhorns hadn't played since 12/20. Rust? Not exactly. They crushed Kansas by a score of  84-59. While these teams have played some close ones, I see the Longhorns pulling away and covering the small number. 

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. The Mountaineers are a really good team. However, I believe that the Red Raiders are even better. While the Mountaineers did get a game in on the weekend, a blowout of K-State, both teams have missed some games recently, due to Covid. Prior to the off time, WVU had lost two of three. We're getting the Red Raiders as an underdog, due to the fact that they're playing on the road. However, the Raiders have no issue winning on the road. Texas Tech has won its first three road games in Conf. play, only the second time it has done so since 1996/97. While the home team has had the advantage in the series of late, I believe that the Red Raiders' ability to win on the road will prove significant. I'll take the points but am expecting the upset. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Hawks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, the Bucks are in an angry mood. Even with the loss to the Lakers, they're still an outstanding 31-13 ATS when off an 'upset' loss. While the Bucks have been facing top tier teams like the Lakers and Nets, the Hawks have been taking on the likes of the Pistons and T-Wolves. The Bucks come in rested; they've had the past two days off. They also have the next two days off. In other words, the Hawks will have their full attention. The Bucks won all three of last season's games by a minimum of eight points. The most recent meeting saw them hammer the Hawks by 26 points. They were up 63-40 by halftime and cruised the rest of the way. I'm expecting another double-digit win here. 

I'm playing on MISSISSIPPI STATE. Needless to say, Alabama has been enjoying a great season. I certainly respect the Tide, having successfully played on them on more than one occasion. That said, I believe that they're a bit over-valued here and I believe that this will prove to be a much tougher challenge than many will be expecting. Off their win at LSU, their third staight "blowout victory, the Tide may be reading their press clippings and patting themselves on the back a little. With a big game against Kentucky on deck, it's going to be easy to look past the Bulldogs. That'll prove costly though. The Bulldogs have arguably played on the road than at home this season and they're coming in thinking "upset" and "signature win." Yes, the Tide put up a whopping 105 points in the LSU game. The Bulldogs don't think much of that though as they're 5-0 ATS their last five against teams which scored 100 or more points, in their previous game. Look for them to give their hosts all they can handle. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO.The Kings have both the schedule and the venue working in their favor here. While they had yesterday off, the Knicks are off a late game, at Golden State. Desperate for a victory and knowing that their next six games will come on the road, I expect the Kings to take advantage of the favorable situation tonight. The Kings have won two of three games against Eastern Conf. teams this season, most recently knocking off the Pacers. They're 24-17 SU off a double-digit loss, the past 2+ seasons, going 25-16 ATS. That's a great record, particularly when compared to the rest of their games during that span. Expect the Kings to leave it all on the floor, improving on those stats in convincing fashion. 

I'm playing on WYOMING. Nevada has been on a nice ATS run in conference play but I expect it to come to an end here. I like the way that the Cowboys come into this one. They dropped the first of two games against Air Force. After dropping a close one in the first of two games against the Falcons, Wyoming responded with a 77-58 blowout in the second game. Note that Wyoming is 6-3 ATS its last nine, off a conference victory. The Cowboys play Air Force again tomorrow. However, thats not nearly something to "look ahead" to the way that Nevada's Saturday opponent is. The Wolf Pack will play San Diego State Saturday, which is a "double-revenge" spot. The last three meetings between these teams have all been very close, the three games together decided by just nine combined points. While I like Wyoming's chances of winning outright, in a game which could well come down to the wire once again, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. I won with the 'over' when these same teams faced each other on Tuesday. For tonight's rematch, I feel that the value lies with the visitors. Having dropped Tuesday's game, the Pelicans are coming in angry and motivated. While the Jazz got the better of them Tuesday, the previous six meetings between the Jazz and Pelicans had all been decided by 10 points or less, two of the previous three decided by a single bucket. The Pelicans are already 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. Off a double-digit loss against Miami, they bounced back to beat the Spurs. Off a double-digit loss against the Suns, they bounced back to crush the Thunder. Off a double-digit loss to the Lakers, they bounced back for a win and cover at Sacramento. Off Tuesday's double-digit loss, look for them to bounce back with AT LEAST another cover tonight. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. To their credit, the Golden Hurricane have played pretty well. Facing a superior and angry opponent, I believe that they run into a reality check tonight though. Last time out, Tulsa eked out a 1-point home win over Memphis. However, in their last road game, the Golden Hurricane got thumped by a score of 72-53. The Cougars haven't forgotten that the Golden Hurricane upset them, at Houston, on 12/29. This is a Houston team which is a perfect 8-0 SU and a profitable 6-2 ATS the past eight times it attempted to avenge a road loss. With an O/U line in the mid-120's, this is projected to be a fairly low-scoring game. That suits the Cougars just fine. They're a perfect 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the past seven times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 120s. Going back further finds them at 18-8 SU/ATS in that situation. The Tulsa loss was the Cougars' only defeat. They were up by as many as 11 in that game. They will have learned from that and will be determined to avoid a repeat. Expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way, en route to a blowout victory. 

I'm playing CHICAGO on the puck-line. (+1.5 goals.) The Hawks are off to an 0-3 start and it may indeed prove to be a long year for them. That said, they're a long way from writing off their season and I expect their very best effort tonight. This is the second of b2b games between these teams. Florida pulled away for a 5-2 win a couple of nights ago. You're going to see a lot of these b2b spots this season. While it doesn't always result in victories, more often than not, the team which lost the opener tends to elevate its effort in the rematch. Desperate to avoid falling to 0-4, we can expect the revenge-minded Hawks to leave it all on the ice tonight. With the Panthers fairly steep favorites on the moneyline, we're able to get an extra +1.5 goals for a relatively reasonable price. I expect AT LEAST a "puck-line cover."

I'm playing on TENNESSEE STATE. I believe that the gap between these teams is considerably wider than is indicated by the pointspread. Yes, the Redhawks won the earlier meeting. However, that was at SE Missouri State and the game went to OT. Now, the revenge minded Tigers get a chance for payback on their own homecourt. Note that the Tigers are 5-0 ATS their last five home games against a team with a losing road record. On the other hand, the Redhawks are 0-6 ATS their last six road games against teams with a losing home record. This is makeup game and it catches the Redhawks in between games against Morehead State, a team which beat them Saturday. I believe it all adds up to a win and cover for the revenge-minded Tigers. 

I'm playing on DENVER. A lot of people seem to be down on Denver these days. I like what I've seen from the Nuggets recently though and feel that they're offering excellent value tonight. Sure, the Jazz are going to be motivated for some revenge from the playoffs. The Nuggets are going to be every bit as hungry though; as they're currently looking up at the Jazz in the division standings. 

I played on the Nuggets in their last game, noting the following: "...I believe that the Warriors are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Denver lost at Brooklyn on Tuesday. However, that loss notwithstanding, the Nuggets have been playing well of late. Jokic is the "straw that stirs the drink" for this team and he's found his groove. He was two rebounds and three steals short of achieving a "quadruple double" last time out. He entered that game as just the second player in NBA history to average 20/10/10 in his team's first 10 games. He's going be an unstoppable force again, tonight. Denver has still won four if its past six games and responded to each of its last two losses with a double-digit win next time out. While both teams had yesterday off, note that the Nuggets also have tomorrow off while the Warriors play at Phoenix. In fact, the Nuggets have the next two nights off. In other words, there's no holding back in this one. The Nuggets are 66-22 when listed as the home team the past 2+ seasons..."

Sure enough, the Nuggets came through with a double-digit win. Sure enough, Jokic delivered a triple-double. (He'd finish with a 23/14/10 line while adding three steals.) As I pointed out in the previous writeup, the Nuggets had two nights off, after the GSW game. So, they're coming in well-rested. The Jazz also had yesterday off. However, they played the previous day and this will mark the ninth time in a row that they played in a different city than their previous game was played in. A home game to start the year on 1/1. Then six straight on the road. Then, another home game. Now, back on the road. After this, the Jazz will finally get a "homestand," as they'll play six straight at Utah. For tonight, however, I expect them to potentially be a bit road weary. The Nuggets are 20-8 the past 28 times that they played with two day's rest. Expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on KC. The Browns were able to beat up on the Steelers. However, the Chiefs are an entirely different animal. The Chiefs score more points than the Browns and they allow less. They're experienced in the playoffs, well coached and they're well-rested. Mahomes plays the game at another level. This will already be the Browns' fourth road game since 12/20. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been home since Christmas. While the Browns are 1-5 ATS their last six against teams from the AFC West, the Chiefs are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) their last six against teams from the AFC North. The Chiefs are a perfect 5-0 SU the past five times that they were off a bye and they're 4-1 ATS their last five playoff games. Mahomes rarely makes mistakes and its going to take a near perfect game to beat him. I don't believe that the Browns are up for the task. KC wins by double-digits. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. Playing their second game in two nights, the Blazers stumbled against the Pacers on Thursday. Prior to that, however, they'd won four straight, covering three of those. Tonight, its the Blazers' opponent which is playing its second game in two days. While Portland had Friday off, Atlanta played at Utah. The Hawks lost by five, at home against Cleveland, the only previous time that they played the second of b2b games this season. As for the Blazers, they know they need to take advantage of games against teams from the East, particularly when catching them at home. While they're only 1-2 in three against Eastern Conf. opponents so far this season, the Blazers are 40-20 (SU) against them the past 2+ seasons. The home team won and covered both meetings in this series last season. The Hawks won by 12 at Atlanta while the Blazers won by 11, here at Portland. Venue and schedule in their favor, expect another win and cover for the Blazers here. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO. Both these teams are hungry to take the "next step." I believe that it'll be the Bills who do so. Lamar Jackson certainly does some special things on the field. However, he's also liable to make mistakes. More so, at least, than Josh Allen. Lamar completed 64% of his passes this season, while Allen completed 69% of his. While he didn't fare well against Baltimore last year, Allen has come a long way since then. Indeed, Allen threw for a whopping 4500+ yards with 37 TDs against 10 interceptions. Jackson had an almost identical number (nine) of INT's with roughly 1800 fewer yards and 11 less TD passes. All Allen did last week was to become the youngest QB in NFL history to complete 70% of his passes, in a playoff game, while throwing for more than 300 yards. Not only did he throw for 326 yards, he ran for another 54 and a TD. Yeah, he can do that, too. While it may not be talked about much, I believe that the schedule gives the Bills and advantage. This will be the Ravens' third straight road game and they're playing on a short week. The Bills play with one extra day in between games (they played Saturday last week, while Baltimore played Sunday) and they're playing their third straight at home. The Bills are 7-1 ATS their last eight, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. With Allen getting the better of Jackson, expect them to improve on those stats Saturday evening. 

I'm playing on BOSTON U. These teams have both played Colgate twice and they've both played Holy Cross twice. They both split against Holy Cross. Army also split against Colgate. Boston, meanwhile, was swept by Colgate. Those results have helped to provide us with outstanding value with the Terriers. The logic or theory of many bettors will be, if the Black Knights can split against Colgate, a team which swept the Terriers, then they should have the edge in this one. While Army does deserve credit for its win against Colgate, that theory doesn't hold water here. The Terriers brought back most of last year's team and last year's team beat the Knights by a score of 80-66, at Army, and by a score of 81-59, here at Case Gym. The Terriers are coming in extremely hungry. They're 11-5 the last 16 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 130s and that includes a perfect 4-0 record when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Expect Boston to bring its very best effort in this one, en route to a badly needed victory. 

I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS. The Mean Green were favored by 10 points for last year's lone meeting. That game, which was last January, saw North Texas win by exactly 10. The previous season's lone game was played at UTEP. Yet, North Texas was still favored by 5.5 points and still won by seven. This year's North Texas team returned four of its top six scorers and is arguably even better than the recent versions. Yet, we're getting the Mean Green at a much lower line than we were last season. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. To be fair, UTEP is probably better this year than it was. That said, I don't think the Miners, who will miss the size, depth and rebounding of senior forward Vila, are going to be ready for what's in store for them here. The Miners lost last time out and they're just 7-17-1 ATS their last 25, off a conference loss. During that span, they were also 7-15 ATS (6-16 SU) when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. North Texas, the top rated shooting team in the conference, is undefeated at home, outscoring visiting teams by a 98 to 62.7 average margin. Expect another win and cover. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Despite dealing with some Covid issues, the Mavs have been rolling of late. Tonight, however, I expect their run to come to an abrupt start. As of this writing, the Mavs still have a number of players questionable, due to quarantine protocol etc. However, even at full strength, they'll be no match for what they're about to run into. When you don't lose that many games, you tend to remember the losses. The Bucks haven't forgotten that the Mavs upset them here last season. Milwaukee was laying -10 for that 12/16 game. The Mavs came in hot while the Bucks had an off night. That 120-116 upset snapped an 18-game winning streak for the Bucks. So, yes, they remember it. The fact that the Mavs also beat them "in the bubble" will further add to their anger tonight. The Mavs have been playing the majority of their games on the road so far this season and it figures to catch up with them here. The Bucks are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at home this season. Even with last year's loss to the Mavs, they're 72-14 SU and 52-33-1 ATS here the past 2+ seasons. The Mavs average 109 ppg while the Bucks average more than 120. Payback time. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Wildcats already know that they won't face Oregon, as originally scheduled, on Saturday. That's because of Covid issues with Oregon. They will still get a chance to face Oregon State though and I expect them to make the most of it. The Beavers have been dealing with their own Covid issues and have been out of action since Jan. 4th. That won't help them here. Not against a superior opponent which almost always gives them trouble. Arizona has won eight of the last nine meetings. The most recent meeting saw the Cats crush the Beavers by 26 points. With the Beavers rusty from their layoff, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cats jump all over them and never look back. Even if OSU does survive the initial onslaught, Arizona's superior talent will ultimately lead to another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on DENVER. I believe that the Warriors are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Denver lost at Brooklyn on Tuesday. However, that loss notwithstanding, the Nuggets have been playing well of late. Jokic is the "straw that stirs the drink" for this team and he's found his groove. He was two rebounds and three steals short of achieving a "quadruple double" last time out. He entered that game as just the second player in NBA history to average 20/10/10 in his team's first 10 games. He's going be an unstoppable force again, tonight. Denver has still won four if its past six games and responded to each of its last two losses with a double-digit win next time out. While both teams had yesterday off, note that the Nuggets also have tomorrow off while the Warriors play at Phoenix. In fact, the Nuggets have the next two nights off. In other words, there's no holding back in this one. The Nuggets are 66-22 when listed as the home team the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on STEPHEN F. AUSTIN. Sometimes these smaller conferences can provide the biggest value. In this case, I believe the superior team is undervalued. The Lumberjacks are the class of this conference. Both their two losses came on the road, one of them at Baylor. At home, they're undefeated and outscoring teams by a 90-70 margin. Last year, the Jacks were laying nine points at Central Arkansas and 12.5 points for the game here. They won a close one on the road but won by 15 in the game here. Central Arkansas is 1-7 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 83.5 to 68.4. Seven of the Bears' losses this season have come by double-digits, including each of the last six. Its been more than a year since Stepeh F. Austin lost a game in this conference. The last time it happened was Jan. 8th, 2020. Since that time, the Jacks have reeled off 17 straight Southland wins. This year's Stephen Austin team, led by their seniors, quietly ranks fourth in the entire country, in terms of forcing opponents into turning the ball over on 28% of all their possessions. Expect another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. While I'm happy to grab the points, I like the Badgers to win this one outright. The Wolverines were favored by three in last year's game. Wisconsin won by seven. The Badgers last road game saw them win by nine, at Michigan State. This is a team which knows how to win, at any venue. The Badgers' lone road loss came by just two points. With an undefeated record, Michigan has obviously played well and is worthy of respect. That said, the Badgers have played the tougher schedule thus far and are more "battle-tested," as a result. Including last season's win here and this season's win at Michigan State, the Badgers are 12-8-2 ATS their last 22 as underdogs, 11-11 SU in those games. Expect them to give the Wolverines all they can handle with a great shot at another upset. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. While I respect Illinois, I believe that this will prove to be too many points. The Terps are coming in hungry. They got embarrassed last time out and they've now dropped three straight. Note that if we go back over the years, they're 12-2 ATS their last 14, after having dropped their previous three. Maryland has also had plenty of success against the Illini over the years. The Terps have won six of the past seven meetings and are 11-5 in 16 meetings since the late 1990s. All five Illinois victories came by 11 or fewer points. Maryland's three conference road games have resulted in two single digit losses (at Purdue and Indiana) and an outright win at Wisconsin. Expect them to give their hosts all that they can handle. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Its true that the Bears "backed into" the playoffs. I'm not concerned about that though. They're here. While the betting public isn't giving them a chance, the Bears believe that they belong. Remember, the Saints beat them by only three (in OT) in the regular season. The Bears will play without any pressure. This is a Chicago team and offensive line which protects its QB and which opens up holes for its running backs. Thats the type of formula that can often be successful in the playoffs. While they struggled to run the ball early, the Bears have rushed for more than 100 yards in six straight games. They've also allowed only one sack in their past three games. With an O/U line in the high 40s, note that Chicago is 4-1 ATS its past five, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 45 to 49.5 range. Look for them to give the Saints all they can handle. 

I'm playing on LA. The Bulls are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Chicago is at the end of a road trip. Off b2b really close losses, the banged-up Bulls are thinking about getting home. The Clippers also lost last time out. They're already 3-0 SU/ATS off a loss though. They won those three games by an average of 12 points, too. While they did manage to upset the Clippers last season, something LA hasn't forgotten, the Bulls are now 15-42 SU in games against Western Conf. teams, the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the Clippers are 37-17 SU against teams from the East. Expect LA to improve on those stats this afternoon, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on DAYTON. While I respect Davidson, this line climbed higher overnight and its a lot of points to be laying against a determined Dayton tean. The Flyers, who have beaten Davidson three straight times, have lost just three times this season. All three losses came by two points or less. One of those setbacks came last time out. That's noteworthy as Dayton is 6-1 SU (5-1-1 ATS) its last seven, off a conf. loss. Speaking of close games, last year's meeting here was decided by a single point, a 74-73 win for the Flyers. Davidson was laying four points for that one, which is roughly what I feel the Wildcats should be laying here, if one was setting a true line, not based on trying to balance action. Getting an extra few points, above and beyond that, in what could well be another close one, is offering excellent value. Remember, Dayton has defeated the likes of Ole Miss and Miss. State. Off each of this season's previous two losses, the Flyers bounced back with a win. Look for them to give their hosts all they can handle. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE STATE. There's a reason why the team with the inferior record is the favorite. Homecourt is only part of it. The Tigers are more talented, in my opinion. Additionally, they're currently playing better, arguably. They're also going to be desperate for a win, having dropped three straight. Of course, off four straight losses of their own, the Skyhawks are also going to really want a "W" here. However, a look at the four losses shows that they haven't even been competitive. All four losses were by double-digits. The average margin of defeat was 24 points. The Tigers' losses, on the other hand, were all close, each coming by single digits. Note that the Tigers are 6-3 ATS the past couple of seasons, after having dropped their previous three games. I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on DUKE. The Blue Devils come into this game very well-rested and chomping at the bit to get going. Admittedly, things aren't exactly "normal." The Blue Devils have been on an extended layoff and they're going to be without Coach K on the sidelines. Yes, his absence is significant. However, he hasn't been completely out of contact: Krzyzewski had this to say: "I've had Zooms yesterday with my staff to go over Boston College, wrote out our practice plan, had a meeting with my staff this morning. I'll be able to follow practice on Zoom....and then I'll have another meeting with my staff and I'll FaceTime with each of the players individually tonight, and do the best we can ... " While the Eagles may be thinking that a young Duke team is vulnerable, one fact remains unchanged. Duke is more talented. The Eagles, who lost quite a lot from last year, have played some good teams, so they know what they're up against. However, they've also already lost seven times, three of those losses by 12 or more. Syracuse beat this team by 38 points. Speaking of "blowouts," the last two meetings here at Duke saw the Blue Devils win by scores of 88-49 and 80-50. Not many will likely be ready to back Duke in this spot, but I'm projecting another blowout. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE. While the Knights have the higher ranking, playing at home, I expect the Spartans to have the edge. The Spartans dropped their first three conference games. However, two of those were on the road and the third was against Wisconsin. Last time out, also on the road, they bounced back and picked up this season's first Big Ten win. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. The Spartans haven't fared well at the betting window. Their ATS struggles work in our favor here though as we don't need to lay any points. Keep in mind that the Spartans were favored by 14, 15.5, 21.5, 13 and 28 points the past five times that they hosted the Knights. Yes, Rutgers is improved this season. However, the point remains that the Spartans are offering excellent value. Remember, they're 32-5 the past 2+ seasons at home and that includes a perfect 6-0 record when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. The Knights, still without Omoruyi, have still won just seven of their past 25 on the road. A 2-point loss against Iowa last time out figures to be deflating. I say that as they left it all on the floor and played great, only to have poor free throw shooting cost them. The Spartans, who have beaten Rutgers every single Big Ten meeting, won't have any sympathy. They need another win and I expect them to get it. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. These teams met here Sunday. The Lakers won by 14. The champs haven't been home since last year though and this is the final leg of their road trip. I believe that they could easily overlook Memphis tonight. Note that LA is 9-12 ATS the past couple of seasons, after playing its previous three on the road. On the other hand, the Grizzlies play with recent revenge and absolutely don't want to be "swept" in this 2-game series. Still seeking their first home win, they're going to be hungry and determined tonight. While the Lakers are 1-2 ATS off a double-digit win, the Grizzlies are 2-1 ATS off a double-digit loss. I expect the Grizzlies' best effort and am grabbing the points.