Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on UCONN (10* VIOLATOR). Both teams are much stronger at home. While Tulsa held serve on its home floor, a narrow 90-88 (2 OT) victory, I expect the revenge-minded Huskies to get some payback this evening. The Huskies are a perfect 6-0 SU the past six times that they were listed as favorites. Tonight's line is low enough that a SU victory should also result in an ATS win. Tulsa has trouble scoring on the road and the Huskies are stingy (65.7 ppg, 39.5% fg) here at home. UCONN bounces back. 

I'm playing on SDSU (10* PERS FAV). These teams are both much better on their home floor. The Cowboys won and covered at Wyoming in late December. Playing on their home floor, I expect the Aztecs to return the favor. I won with the Aztecs in their last home game, a 31-point destruction of Air Force. The Aztecs had entered that game off a blowout loss. They've since lost back-to-back road games, most recently getting blown out at Nevada. Once again, I expect homecourt and the home fans to provide the boost they need to bounce back. The Aztecs are 7-2 SU/ATS in home lined games. They outscore teams by an 81.1 to 60.5 margin here at home. On the other hand, Wyoming gets outscored by a 78.2 to 75.2 margin on the road. The Aztecs are 4-1 SU (3-1 ATS in lined games) after allowing 80 or more points. They beat the Cowboys by nine the last meeting here and I expect an even bigger margin here. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). The Cavs are obviously having an excellent season. However, I believe that the Canes are catching them at the right time. After losing against V-Tech last time out, many will be banking on Virginia to bounce right back. Thats going to be easier said than done though, as this has become a very difficult venue to play at. The Canes have lost only one game here all season. That was against Duke, more than a month ago. Since then, they've beaten every team that has visited here. The Canes are off a loss at Boston College, a defeat which damaged their tournament resume. A win here and that loss will be forgiven/forgotten. Expect them to bounce back with their best effort. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* ANNIHILATOR). These teams will meet again at Houston, after the All Star Break. The Wolves know that winning that 2/23 game will be difficult. They also haven't forgotten that the Rockets hammered them there a few weeks ago. That makes "holding serve" important here, if they'd like to prove that they can hang with one of the top teams in the league. Of course, they're also fighting to hang on to top spot in their division. While the Rockets are an impressive 20-7 on the road, the Wolves are an even better 23-6 at home. With an O/U line of 222, note that the Wolves are an impressive 7-1-1 ATS their last nine, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. Expect them to improve on those stats here.

I'm playing on UNC-GREENSBORO (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Southern Conference is strong this season and these two teams are leading the way. Each has been excellent at the betting window. The Buccaneers are on top and won when the teams met at ETSU. However, lets not forget that this Buccaneers team lost a lot from last season. The Spartans came up just short against ETSU in last season's conference tourney and they haven't forgotten. They're 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in home lined games this season. After allowing a mere 48 points last time out, note that the Spartans are also 8-1 SU (6-1 ATS) the past nine times that they'd allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game. Off three straight double-digit wins, their confidence is at an all-time high. With an O/U line in the low-mid 130s, as of this writing, note that the Spartans are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the past five times that they played a home game with an O/U line ranging from 130 to 134.5. Can you say: "Payback time?"

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). While the Raptors are on a nice roll, I expect them to have their hands full on Sunday afternoon. Off back-to-back divisional wins and having won four straight overall, the Raptors could be starting to get a little complacent. On other hand, the Hornets are going to be in an angry mood. Not only have the Raptors beaten them in both this season's meetings but the Hornets have also lost their last three games in a row. This is just the Hornets' third 3-game skid since early December. They answered the previous 3-game losing streaks by beating the Thunder by 13 and the Knicks by 18. 

I'm playing on DALLAS (10* VIOLATOR). These teams will meet at LA in less than two weeks. Playing at home, where they hammered the Lakers in both meetings last season, I expect the Mavs to "hold serve" this evening. Yes, I successfully went against the Mavs last time out. However, that was on the road against the defending champs, who were coming in angry off b2b losses. Now, the Mavs are at home and facing a Laker team which just shook up its lineup. While it remains to be seen how Thomas will work out, he hasn't been playing well offensively this season and his defense has been a liability. Meanwhile, Clarkson and Nance were both providing solid minutes. While Ball remains out for LA, the Mavs are expected to have Barnes back in the starting lineup. While the Lakers get outscored by an average score of 112.2 to 106.5 on the road, the Mavs outscore teams by a 102.2 to 101.6 margin here at Dallas. The Mavs are 36-20-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, off a double-digit loss, 7-4 ATS their last 11 in that situation. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). Both teams earned important victories last time out. The Bruins significantly improved their tourney resume with an impressive road win at Arizona. The Sun Devils got back on track with a critical win against fellow bubble team USC. In what should be a high-scoring, up-tempo game, I look for homecourt to ultimately make the difference. Though some might be surprised to see them favored here, lets not forget that the Sun Devils have already beaten the likes of Kansas and Xavier. They've also got wins over teams like San Diego State, K-State, Vanderbilt and St. John's. While Arizona State outscores teams by an impressive 85.8 to 69.5 margin at home, the Bruins give up 81.1 ppg (while scoring 81.8) on the road. I like the way in which the Sun Devils beat USC. They hit a 3-pointer to tie the game with less than a minute left, then hit the game winner with just over a second left. Thats the type of victory that a team can build positive momentum from. With the Bruins just 7-19 ATS their past 26 road games when the O/U line was in the 160s, expect the home team to finish on top. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE (10* MAC GAME OF YEAR). The Cardinals will be looking to avenge an 88-80 (OT) loss, suffered at Kent State on 1/23. Additionally, they'll be looking to snap a 15-game skid in the series. Playing at home, where they've beaten the likes of Notre Dame and where they've only lost once all season, I expect them to finally get some "payback." While they're 9-3 at home, the Golden Flashes are just 3-9 away from home, 2-7 in true road games. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. While they haven't covered the spread in all those games, the Pistons have quietly won five in a row. Needless to say, the move to pick up Blake Griffin is currently looking pretty good. Facing Griffin's former team should provide plenty of incentive to make it six straight. With the recent win streak, the Pistons are a solid 18-10 at home on the season. On the other hand, the Clippers are below .500 (11-13) when playing on the road. While both teams had yesterday off, the Pistons also have tomorow off while LA will play at Philadelphia. Expect homecourt to make the difference, the Pistons continuing to roll while covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* TNT MAIN EVENT). The Mavs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. While the Mavs kept things close, at Dallas, the last time that these teams met, the Warriors won the first two meetings by 30 and 15 points. I'm expecting another lopsided affair here. The Warriors weren't crisp last time out and got a wake-up call with a blowout loss against the Thunder. That marked their second straight defeat, the first time thats happened this season, and should ensure that they're "all business" here. While Durant remains a game-time decision, Curry, Green, Thompson (who will be celebrating his bday) and co. bring more than enough to the table, even if KD sits. Expect the Warriors to bounce back, improving to 6-1 ATS (7-0 SU) the past seven times that they were off a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* MAIN EVENT). While I respect the Bruins, I believe that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Wildcats are off a loss at Washington. Now, however, they're back home, where they're undefeated on the season. Not only do the Wildcats average an impressive 85 ppg here, connecting on 53.7% of their field goals, but they also limit visiting teams to just 67.6 ppg. By comparison, the Bruins allow a high 81.9 ppg, when playing on the road. The Cats won by 11 when these teams last met, a March game at Las Vegas in the Pac-12 Semi Finals. The gap is wider now than it was then and I'm expecting another double-digit win.

I'm playing on DETROIT (10* VIOLATOR). This is a tough spot for the Nets. Already banged-up, they lost Chris Lavert to injury in a hard-fought loss against Houston on Tuesday. Now, in addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, they'll also be playing their third game in the past four days. Going back a little further shows that this will mark the Nets' sixth game in the past nine days. Thats one extra game than the Pistons, who had yesterday off, have had to squeeze into the same stretch. The Pistons' lineup is now considerably stronger with the addition of Griffin. Last time out, they hammered Portland by 20. The fact that the Nets upset them here a few weeks ago should ensure that the Pistons are fully focused. Expect them to avenge that loss in blowout fashion, improving to 6-3-1 ATS the past 10 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss.

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Bonnies have owned the Billikens the past couple of seasons. All four meetings have all gone the way of Bonnies. Last season, they won by 15 and 19 points, respectively. While the Bonnies were favored by double-digits for both last season's games, tevening's line is lower. Its also come down from its opener, as of this writing, providing us with excellent line value. The Bonnies outscore teams by a 79.7 to 63.7 margin on their home floor. On the other hand, the Billikens get outscored by an average score of 69.8 to 62.6 margin when playing away from home. Expect them to have trouble keeping up, the Bonnies covering the relatively low number, while continuing their recent dominance in the series. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* PERS FAV). What a difference two months can make. When these teams met a couple of months ago, at Nebraska, the Gophers were favored by nine points. Now, playing at home, Minnesota has only opened as a slight favorite. I believe that is providing us with excellent value on the revenge-minded home team. While they did manage a win at Wisconsin last time out, the Huskers are still below .500 on the road. Expect homecourt to be the difference, the Gophers bouncing back with a much-needed victory. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Mountaineers won and covered when they hosted the Cowboys back on 1/6. However, with this evening's rematch being played at Oklahoma, I expect the Sooners to return the favor. While the Mountaineers have been mediocre away from home, the Sooners are undeated at home. They're scoring an impressive 97.5 ppg here, too. Note that the Sooners are 16-3 SU and 13-6 ATS the past 19 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Its true that the Sooners have failed to cover three straight. However, the two previous times that they failed to cover three in a row this season, the Sooners responded by beating Kansas and Wichita State. Expect them to bounce back once again. 

I'm playing on DETROIT (10* PERS FAV). The schedule-maker is again helping the Pistons. While Portland is off a hard-fought Sunday afternoon loss at the buzzer, at Boston, the Pistons had Sunday off. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, the Blazers will be playing their third game in four days. It will also mark their fifth game in seven days. Factor in that the first of those was in LA, in the Western Time Zone, and that's a pretty difficult week. The Pistons swept the Blazers last season and they've thrived against teams from the West this season. They're 11-6-1 ATS in non-conference action. Expect them to imrprove on those stats here. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX (10* BEST BET). After winning big against Dallas two games ago, the Suns stumbled last time out. I expect them to bounce back with a much better effort on Sunday afternoon. Both teams had yesterday off. However, while the Suns also have tomorrow off, the Hornets have a game at Denver. While they're tough to beat at Charlotte, the Hornets are just 7-15 on the road. Expect the Suns to give them all they can handle with an excellent shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (10* VIOLATOR). Air Force is in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a loss last time out, their fourth in five games, the Aztecs are going to be in an angry mood. Facing an Air Force team which they limited to 38 points here last season should be the perfect opponent to take their anger out on. When the Aztecs do win, they tend to win big. Their most recent two wins came by 19 and 36 combined points. In fact, every one of their victories since Christmas has come by double-digits. The average margin of victory in those games was 21. Each of the home wins has come by 19 or more. Air Force, meanwhile, lost its last road game by 22 points. Thats nine double-digit losses on the season. Ten after tonight. Look for the Aztecs to bounce back big, improving to 7-2 ATS in home lined games along the way. 

I'm playing on DETROIT (10* PERS FAV). The home team has won and covered both meetings this season. We should see more of the same here. While the Heat are off a hard-fought loss at Philly yesterday, the Pistons had yesterday off. They didn't cover last time out but did win, Griffin fitting in nicely. All the Pistons' new star did was deliever 24 points and 10 rebounds, without committing a turnover. Now, they've had a chance to work together a little more, he should have another big game. The Pistons are 14-9-2 ATS the past 25 times that they faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. Catching the Heat playing their their road game in the past four days, expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on COLORADO (10* SHOCKER). Off three straight losses, the Buffaloes are going to be in an angry mood. I expect them to take it out on a Utes team which is still stinging from a 1-point loss at Arizona and which is now playing its third straight road game. Coming so close at Arizona, only to come up short, figures to have a lingering effect. While they do deserve some credit for managing a win at Arizona State, the Utes are still 1-3 in four 2018 road games. Speaking of Arizona State, off their only previous 3-game slide, the Buffaloes returned home to beat ASU by nine points, the 90 points they scored representing their most in conference play. Also, note that the Buffs are an outstanding 19-7 SU/ATS the past 26 times that they were listed as home underdogs (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. Expect them to bounce back with their best effort once again. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Lakers won when these teams met at LA earlier. Playing at home, I expect the Nets to avenge that loss this evening. While the Lakers have seven wins on the road, the Nets have nine at home. One of those came last time out, a fairly impressive 116-108 win over the 76ers. On the other hand, still playing without Lonzo Ball, the Lakers have been blown out in back-to-back games. With Brook Lopez returning to Brooklyn, one might think this game could have some extra meaning for LA. Lopez, though still starting, is frustrated with inconsistent playing time down the stretch though. He saw just nine mins. in the 22-point loss at Orlando. I prefer the way things are looking in Brooklyn. Revenge-minded Nets make it two in a row.

I'm playing on TORONTO (10* VIOLATOR). Playing their first game without Wall, the Wizards upset the Thunder last time out. Don't expect a repeat performance against this disciplined Raptor team. The Raptors have been on the verge of "taking the next step" for a few years. With the Cavs perhaps a little weaker, they see this year as their chance. At 34-15, they've been playing well nearly every time out, regardless of venue. They outscore teams by a 111.1 to 103.8 average margin overall and that includes a 109.8 to 105.6 mark on the road. Note that the Raptors are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS their last four visits here, too. They were underdogs for both games here last season, yet won 114-106 and 113-103. With the Wizards just 2-8 SU/ATS their last 10, when off an upset victory, I expect the Raptors to continue their recent success here, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on NORTHEASTERN (10* PERS FAV). The Northeastern women's team recently hammered the College of Charleston women's team here, winning by 22 points. Tonight, I expect the men to do the same. The Cougars won big when these teams met at College of Charleston. However, the Huskies are a perfect 7-0 SU, going 5-1-1 ATS, the past seven times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. This season, the Huskies are outscoring teams by a commanding 77 to 63 margin here. Not surprisingly, they're 5-1 ATS here in lined games. That stingy homecourt defense figures to present problems for the Cougars, who are averaging just 65 ppg, on only a 40.3% mark with field goals, when playing on the road. Payback time. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* REVENGE GAME OF MONTH). These teams have met twice so far this season. With both games played at Charlotte, its not surprising that the Hornets won each of them. This evening's game is being played at Atlanta though and I like the revenge-minded Hawks to come away with the cash. While the Hornets are a somewhat respectable 14-14 at home, they're an ugly 6-15 on the road. Note that Charlotte lost Marvin Williams to injury last time out. Williams isn't a star but he is a solid starter who does a lot for them and who is likely to be missed here. The Hawks scored an upset of Minnesota last time out. Not bad considering that the T-Wolves entered that game in first place in the northwest division. Expect them to be at their best once again. 

I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON (10* PERS FV). I successfully played against the Colonials when the lost at VCU recently. Admittedly, as I acknowledged at the time, the Colonials have really struggled on the road. However, they're a much stronger team here at home. Last time on this floor, they beat George Mason by double-digits. The Dukes are another team which they match up well against. Note that GW has beaten the Dukes five straight times here. Duquesne has gotten off to a decent start. However, its off back-to-back losses and I expect things to start to unravel. A relatively eash schedule has made them seem better than they really are. To their credit, the Dukes played the Rams tough, at Rhode Island, last time out. However, the fact that they fought hard only to come up short, figures to take a toll on them here. Note that the only previous time that they played the second of b2b true road games, the Dukes lost by double-digits. Overall, they're 1-3 in true road games, the long victory coming at Fordham. Look for homecourt to make the difference as revenge-minded GW comes through with a much-needed victory. 

I'm playing on TORONTO (10* ANNIHILATOR). These teams met a couple of weeks ago, at Minnesota. Some of you will likely recall that game, as we won with Minnesota. Here's an excerpt from the analysis of that game:

"... I like how this one sets up for the home team. The Raptors are off a hard-fought, physical affair against the Spurs last night. They're now playing their third game in the past four days. The T-Wolves, on the other hand, had yesterday off. Off b2b losses, they're going to be in an angry mood. They'll also be happy to return home, where they're a healthy 18-6 on the season. The Wolves have beaten the Raptors here each of the past two seasons and they're arguably a stronger team now than they were for either of those games .... With the schedule in they're favor, expect another win and cover for the Wolves this evening." 

Tonight, however, the shoe is on the other foot. Tonight, the Raptors are the team which is playing at home. Tonight, its the Raptors who come in rested. Tonight, its the Wolves who played last night and who are playing their third game in four days. In fact, the Wolves, who are excellent at home but below .500 on the road, will be playing their fifth game in the past seven days. Look for the rested, revenge-minded Raptors to improve to 19-4 at home, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). While I respect the Celtics, I like how this one sets up for the Nuggets. Boston checks in off a hard-fought loss at Golden State, taking the defending champs down to the wire. Up next, the Celtics have a "divisional revenge game" against the Knicks. That could easily have them less than 100% focused on tonight's game at Denver. That'll prove costly though as the Nuggets are an excellent 19-6 at home. The Nuggets played the Celtics tough at Boston earlier, losing by six. The Nuggets also won by 20, as 2.5 point underdogs, when they hosted the Celtics last season. Playing with revenge from the mid-December loss and catching the Celtics at the "right time," expect another win and cover for the Nuggets on Monday.

I'm playing on WISCONSIN (10* GAME OF MONTH). When these teams met on 1/9, at Nebraska, the Huskers were favored by -1.5 points. The Huskers would go on to win by a 56-50 margin. Since that time, the Huskers have won four of six, covering the spread in each of their past four. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has only played four games since the loss at Nebraska. The Badgers lost three of those. A closer look reveals that all three of those losses came on the road, where the Badgers have admittedly struggled. They won their lone home game, during that stretch, by 25 points. In fact, since a 12/9 loss vs. Marquette, the Badgers have won six straight games here, the last five of those coming by double-digits. While the Huskers have been playing better of late, they're still just 2-6 SU in true road games. The Badgers have dominated the Huskers here, including an 11-point win last season and a 15-point win the prevous season. Expect homecourt to make the diference, as they bounce back with a much needed victory. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA (10* BEST BET). These teams played a close one at Northern Iowa earlier. While the Panthers were favored by five, the Ramblers won that 1/7 meeting by six points. That dropped UNI to 0-4 in conference play, at the time. It also marked the Panthers' sixth straight loss. They'd go on to lose their next one too. Since then, however, UNI has turned things around. Off a double-digit win last time out, they've now won three of their last four. Even when they were losing, the Panthers were competitive. None of their last seven games resulted in a double-digit loss. With Wichita State having left the conference, Northern Iowa was expecting to be a team which challenged for the MVC title. While things obviously didn't start too well, the Panthers still believe that they can beat any team in the conference. For that to be the case, they know they're going to need to beat the Ramblers. Look for the revenge-minded Panthers to give their hosts all they can handle Sunday afternoon, with a shot at the outright upset.

I'm playing on IDAHO. While the Vandals have failed to cover in three straight, this should be an excellent spot for them to "get healthy." The last time that the Vandals had failed to cover three in a row, they responded with a 7-point win and cover at Eastern Washington. In fact, they're 7-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after failing to cover their previous three. Now they'll host a struggling North Dakota team which is playing its fourth straight on the road. Last time out, facing the same Eastern Washington team which Idaho defeated, the road weary Fighting Hawks lost by 24. While the Vandals allow a mere 65 ppg (40.1% fg) on their home floor, the Hawks give up a whopping 89.7 ppg (51 fg%) on the road. The Vandals already won by 17, at North Dakota, on 12/29. While North Dakota would obviously like to avenge that loss, I don't see it happening. Not here. Not tonight. Expect a double-digit win for the home team. *Top Big Sky Conference play

I'm playing on DENVER (10* PERS FAV). With a series of more difficult games on deck - next four games come against BOS, OKC, SA and GWS - the Nuggets know that they absolutely need to take care of business here. The Nuggets, who are 18-6 at home, had Friday night off. They also have Sunday off. There's no reason not to be fully focused. On the other hand, the Mavs, 6-16 on the road, are off a late Friday night game vs. Portland. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, they'll be playing their third game in the past four days. With the venue and schedule in their favor, expect the Nuggets to come away with the win and cover. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Cavs haven't covered in some time but this should be an excellent spot for them. Back home and well-rested, they're going to be in an angry mood. Not only have the Cavs lost six of seven but the Pacers have already beaten them in all three of this season's meetings. Keep in mind, however, that the Pacers are still a sub-500 team on the road while the Cavs are still 16-6 at home. Also, note that the Pacers are just 5-9 ATS their past 14, when off a double-digit win. Enough's enough. Revenge-minded Cavs bounce back big.

I'm playing on DENVER (10* VIOLATOR). The Nuggets come in rested, as they've had the past two days off. Monday's win over Portland brought them to 17-6 here for the season. They get tomorrow night off. Having already lost at MSG, they're full attention will be on the task at hand. The Knicks earned a somewhat fortunate cover last time out, as they were down 18 late but rallied to lose by only 10. Still, it was their second consecutive double-digit loss and their 13th loss in 17 games. This is the 6th leg of a 7-game road trip and they're growing a little road weary. Knowing that they'll wrap up the trip at a slightly less formidable venue (Phoenix) tomorrow, they could easily pack it in a little early here, if/when they find themselves down big again. The Nuggets have dominated the Knicks here for years, including a 13-point win last season. More of the same here.

I'm playing on WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE (10* PERS FAV). The Penguins won and covered when they hosted the Panthers on 1/4. Playing this evening's rematch on their home floor, I expect the revenge-minded Panthers to return the favor. The Panthers were right there for the game at Youngstown State, as the game went back and forth. The Penguins opened up on a 15-4 run before the Panthers answered with a 21-5 surge of their own. Ultimately, the Penguins prevailed. However, they have a lot more trouble winning on the road. In fact, they're 0-3 SU/ATS their last three on the road and a dismal 1-13 SU in road and neutral site games overall. The Panthers snapped a 4-game skid with a win and cover vs. Wright State last time out. The losing streak in the rear-view mirror, look for them to get some payback with another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* MAIN EVENT). While they had yesterday off, the Bulls could still be feeling the effects of Monday's double-OT loss at New Orleans. Those type of defeats hurt both mentally and physically. With that loss, the Bulls are 7-17 on the road. The 76ers, meanwhile, are a more respectable 11-9 at home. Looking to avenge an earlier loss at Chicago, expect the 76ers to earn the win and cover here. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE (10* A-10 GAME OF YEAR). While they're dropped four of their last five, including one to St. Joseph's, the Bonnies are better than their recent results indicate. Playing with recent 'revenge,' I expect them to prove that this evening. The Hawks are just 1-5 SU in six true road games. That lone victory came by four points, back in November, at Illinois-Chicago. While the Hawks may have won this season's earlier meeting, the Bonnies have dominated the series in recent seasons. Expect them to bounce back with a double-digit win.  

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* ANNIHILATOR). Playing the fifth leg of a 7-game road trip, the Knicks are starting to grow a little road-weary. Last time out, they got blown out by 20 points, at LA, by the Lakers. They've now allowed 115 or more points in five of their last seven games, allowing a minimum of 104 in all seven. That type of defense isn't going to serve them well against an angry Warriors team which averages 116 ppg on the season and which is coming off a loss last time out. The Warriors, who haven't lost two in a row all season, are 9-0 SU the past nine times that they were off a SU loss, when listed as a favorite. Expect them to improve on those stats, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* PERS FAV). After playing three of their last four on the road, the Red Raiders will be happy to return home. Indeed, while they lost all three of those recent road games, they're undefeated on their home floor. On the season, the Red Raiders have beaten the likes of Kansas and WVU from within the conference while also taking down teams from the ACC and Big Ten. Off back-to-back losses, they're going to be in an angry mood. Like their hosts, the Cowboys are much better on their home floor. In fact, they're 0-3 SU/ATS in true road games. Those losses came by an average of 13.3 points, too. Off a close win over rival Oklahoma, I feel the Cowboys could suffer a slight emotional letdown here. The Raiders are 16-9 ATS (24-1 SU) the past 25 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on TCU (10* MAIN EVENT). With four losses in their last five games, this is a critical game for the Frogs. That's particularly true given that they play three of their next four on the road. The Mountaineers are tough but they're not unbeatable. Their last road game resulted in a loss at Texas Tech. Off a blowout win of Texas, it could be easy for them to overlook the Frogs, if only a little, and get caught looking ahead to their next game, a showdown vs. Kentucky. The Frogs could easily be undefeated here. They lost by one against Oklahoma and by four against Kansas. They've beaten every other opponent here while also winning all three of their neutral site game. Last home game resulted in a 23-point win over Iowa State. Expect them to rise to the occasion.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* ANNIHILATOR). I like how this one sets up for the home team. The Raptors are off a hard-fought, physical affair against the Spurs last night. They're now playing their third game in the past four days. The T-Wolves, on the other hand, had yesterday off. Off b2b losses, they're going to be in an angry mood. They'll also be happy to return home, where they're a healthy 18-6 on the season. The Wolves have beaten the Raptors here each of the past two seasons and they're arguably a stronger team now than they were for either of those games. With the schedule in they're favor, expect another win and cover for the Wolves this evening.

I'm playing on COLORADO (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Buffaloes won by double-digits when they hosted the Huskies last February. I'm expecting another big win here. Off b2b victories and now 4-1 its last five, Colorado comes in playing its best basketball of the season. Washington, on the other hand, is off b2b losses. Note that the Huskies are just 1-5 ATS when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. While the Huskies have been mediocre on the road, he Buffaloes have been dominant at home this season. They're 5-1 SU/ATS their last six, when listed as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on UTAH (10* VIOLATOR). The Knicks won by five when these teams met at NY back in November. Playing at home, where they've beaten the Knicks three straight times, and coming in with some positive momentum, I expect the Jazz to return the favor. While both teams are #10 seeds at the moment, the Jazz arguably need this one more, as they're further back from the 8th spot in their conference. Behind an excellent effort from Mitchell, the Jazz are off a big win at Sacramento, giving them some new hope that the playoffs aren't completely out of reach. With Wednesday's loss at Memphis, the Knicks are now just 5-16 on the road. The Jazz also often have trouble on the road. However, they're a solid 13-8 here at Utah. In beating the Knicks here each of the past three seasons, the Jazz have won by an average of 11 points. Sorry Knicks' fans. I don't mean to keep picking against your team but I'm afraid things are going to get worse, before they get better. Jazz roll.

I'm playing on CAL IRVINE (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Anteaters got on track last time out, a 74-57 victory at CS-Northridge. On the other hand, the Mustangs lost by 12, at Hawaii. Though they've had a week off since then, returning home from Hawaii isn't always the easiest on a team. In the Mustangs case, they're just 8-15 ATS their last 23, off a conference loss. During that span, they're also 0-3 ATS (1-4 SU) in five games, when playing with seven or more day's rest in between games. With an O/U line in the low-mid 130s, the pace should favor the Anteaters. UC Irvine is 30-19-1 ATS its last 50, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. During that span, the Mustangs are just 9-22 SU/ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. The Anteaters haven't forgotten that the Mustangs upset them here last year. Payback time tonight. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* PERS FAV). I believe that the Magic are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Cavs have dropped four straight games and have failed to cover in six straight. They've got some more difficult games on deck, too. That means that they need to take care of business tonight. I expect them to do exactly that. While the Magic may have won last time out, they're only 1-6 ATS their last seven, when off an upset victory. While the Cavs do allow a fairly high 108.7 ppg this season, the Magic are a dismal 20-39-1 ATS their last 60, when facing a team which allows 106 or more points per game. Added motivation for the Cavs stems from the fact that the Magic upset them the last time that the teams met here. This time, expect a motivated Cleveland team to deliver a blowout. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Knicks won by 11 when these teams met at NY last month. Playing at home, I expect the Grizzlies, who have quietly covered six of their past eight, to return the favor. Even off a rare road win (at Brooklyn) the Knicks are still only 5-15 when playing away from home. The Grizzlies have dominated the Knicks here. In fact, they've beaten them six straight times here, every one of those victories coming by a minimum of five points. Off an impressive victory over the Lakers, their second straight home win, look for the revenge-minded Grizzlies to come out on top. 

I'm playing on DENVER (10* VIOLATOR). The Mavs got the better of the Nuggets when these teams met earlier. However, that 12/4 meeting came at Dallas and the Nuggets were still without Jokic. Tonight's rematch is at Denver and the Nuggets' star center is back and looked in top form (23 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists) last time out. While the Nuggets are just 7-16 on the road, they're an impressive 15-5 here at Denver. Last game here saw them win by double-digits. The Mavs are 9-15 at home, 6-14 on the road. Note that the Mavs will be without Barea, which hurts their depth at guard. Look for the revenge-minded Nuggets to continue their strong play at home, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). Both teams just faced the Raptors. On 1/11, the Cavs were blown out, at Toronto. Two days later, also at Toronto, the Warriors blew a big lead but still ended up winning. The Cavs would go on the lose by two points, at Indiana, the next night. Off those losses and having lost at Oakland on Christmas, I believe that this game is going to mean more to Cleveland than it is to Golden State. Note that the Cavs are 9-2 SU the last 11 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. They're also 6-3 ATS the last nine times that they were getting points. Expect Lebron and co. to be at their best, rising to the occasion with AT LEAST a cover on MLK Day. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). The Golden Grizzlies are off back-to-back double-digit victories. I expect them to follow those with another win here. Neither of those victories was quite enough to cover the large pointspread. Today's number is much smaller though. While the Flames have a solid team this season, in my opinion, the Grizzlies are the class of the league. Note that the Flames are 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU!) their last six against teams with a winning record. Expect the Grizzlies to finish on top, this time picking up the cover along the way.

I'm playing on VIRGINIA (10* VIOLATOR). At first glance, this number may appear a little higher. However, if we take a closer look, I think you'll see it could easily be even higher. True, the Wolfpack have already beaten both Duke and Arizona, showing they are capable of beating anyone. However, the Duke win came at home and the Arizona win came at the Bahamas. Note that they've lost (at home) vs UNC Greensboro and also lost (neutral) vs. Northern Iowa. So, they can also lose to anyone. In fact, they've lost ALL their "true" road games. On the other hand, the Cavs are undefeated at home. The Wolfpack are soft on defense - ranking 131st in the country - and allowing 82 ppg in conference play. The Cavs are dominant on defense, allowing a mere 55 ppg in conference play, a paltry 51.3 at home. Note that NC State is just 2-9 ATS the past 2+ seasons against teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game, 1-3 SU/ATS so far this season. The Cavs won by 15 at NC State last season and by 20 the last time that the teams met on this floor. I'm expecting another blowout here. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Saints are tough to beat at home. However, the were only 3-4 SU/ATS in 'true' road games. That includes a double-digit loss here at Minnesota. Including that 29-19 result on 9/11, the Vikings are an impressive 7-1 (6-1-1 ATS) at home. The Vikings have thrived in the favorite role in recent seasons. Including an 8-3-1 ATS mark this year, they're 21-9-1 ATS, the past 2+ seasons, when laying points. While Brees had a big game againt Carolina, the Saints were unable to run the ball effectively. That was against a Panther defense which came in allowing more than 20 ppg and which they'd already scored 30+ against twice in the regular season. Now, they'll face a Vikings defense which allows a mere 12.5 ppg and 248.5 ypg here at home. Expect homefield advantage combined with the extra week of preparation time and the superior defense to all prove the difference, the Vikings advancing to the next round, while picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on XAVIER (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Bluejays have been playing well, I believe that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. I successfully played against the Musketeers last Saturday, as they got upset by at Providence. That was followed by a loss at Villanova. Off b2b losses, this well-coached team is going to be in an angry mood. Keep in mind that both losses came on the road. At home, the Musketeers remain perfect. They're 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS here, having beaten the likes of Baylor, Butler and Cincy here. Keep in mind that Creighton is 0-3 SU/ATS its last three, when listed as an underdog. Look for Bluiett, Macura and co. to elevate their game, snapping the skid while covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on CAL IRVINE (10* ANNIHILATOR). I like the Anteatater, as a small favorite, on Thursday. Cal Irvine hammered the Titans the last time that these teams met here, a 20-point win almost exactly a year ago. The previous season's meeting here also resulted in a double-digit win for the Anteaters. While UCI is outscoring teams by an average of 82.8 to 66.2 at home, Cal State Fullerton is giving up 81 ppg when playing on the road. With a total currently listed in the low 140s, note that the Anteaters are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. Going back further finds them at 13-7 ATS (14-6 SU) their last 20 in that situation. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* MAIN EVENT). This game will be played at London. These teams have met twice already this season. The Celtics won and covered both times. However, the 76ers are playing much better now than they were earlier. Indeed, they're a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four, going 5-1 SU/ATS their past six. The lone loss came by just four points, at Portland. Three of the five victories came on the road; the two home wins came against the Spurs and the Pistons. Last time out, they won by 36. 

With several days off before this game - and with a few more days off afterwards - the 76ers will have Joel Embiid ready to go. His presence makes them a much stronger team, as he's tough to stop in the paint. 

Speaking of Embiid, he's visited here (London) before and he's absolutely excited to take on the Celtics. The star center had this to say of the Celtics: "I'm excited to play them in London... I can't wait to kick their ass and talk shit ..."

Look for the Embiid and the revenge-minded 76ers to keep on rolling.

I'm playing on ARKANSAS (10* PERS FAV). The Tigers have been playing well this year and aren't slouches. However, this is a tough venue. The Razorbacks have beaten the Tigers three straight times. All three of those victories came by a minimum of eight points and the two games here both came by double-digits. Off b2b road losses, the Razorbacks are going to be happy to return home. While they're 0-3 SU in true road games, the Razorbacks are a perfect 8-0 SU on their home floor.

With an O/U line in the 160s, its worth mentioning that Arkansas is 9-2 ATS (11-0 SU) its last 11, when playing a home game with a total in the 160s. Also, note that the Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS their last five, as as home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. Meanwhile, LSU is just 3-11 ATS its last 14, when coming off an SEC win. 

Arkansas coach Mike Anderson noted: "One message I've got to get to our guys is to get more defensive-minded and create havoc on defense. We talk about winning a conference championship, you've got to win at home ... " Look for the Razorbacks to bounce back, picking up the cover along the way.

I'm playing on INDIANA (10* GAME OF WEEK). I successfully backed the Pacers in their last game. Off that wire-to-wire blowout of the Bucks, their second big win in a row, this is another excellent spot for them. While the Pacers had yesterday off, the Heat are off a game at Toronto. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Heat will also be playing their third game in the past four days. That difficult scheduling spot is made even tougher by the fact that they'll be without both Winslow and Waiters. With a difficult stretch of games on deck (Cleveland on Friday, followed by a West Coast road trip) Indiana knows it needs to take advantage of this favorable situation. The Pacers already split a pair of games at Miami, covering the spread in each of those games. They're much better at home and I fully expect another win and cover on Wednesday. 

I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S. After fighting hard in two tough road losses, St. John's stumbled as a favorite against Depual last time out. However, I expect the Red Storm to bounce back big this evening. With an O/U line in the low 150s, as of this writing, its worth noting that St. John's is a perfect 5-0 ATS, along with a pair of pushes, its last seven when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. On the other hand, the Hoyas are 0-5 ATS, during the same span, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. Red Storm bounce back with a much needed win, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on INDIANA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Pacers recently went through a strecth where they failed to cover in six straight games, losing the final five of those outright. One of those was a 1/3 loss at Milwaukee. The Pacers were playing without leading scorer Victor Oladipo. They've since gotten him back and snapped their skid with a 39-point destruction of Chicago. (The Bulls were another team which had beaten the Pacers during their recent skid.) Playing with recent revenge and now facing the Bucks (8-10 on road) here at Indiana, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. The Pacers are 10-5 ATS (12-3 SU) when laying points. They're also 10-6 their last 16, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening.

I'm playing on DALLAS (10* PERS FAV). These teams split a pair of meetings last season, the home team earning the win and cover in each. I expect homecourt to again prove significant. While the Mavs are off b2b losses, both were very close. They're still 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU) their last six games. The Knicks, on the other hand, have dropped three in a row and seven of their past eight. They're also just 2-5 ATS their last seven. Additionally, they won just three of 17 road games, getting outscored by an average of 108 to 99. Expect their road woes to continue here, the Mavs taking care of business and improving to 4-1 ATS after scoring 115 or more points in their previous game.

I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Behind an improved defense and an improved ground game, the Saints got the better of the Panthers in both regular season meetings. However, the Panthers started playing their best football, arguably, after the 12/3 loss at New Orleans. I expect them to give the Saints a much tougher test in Round 3. Note that before this season, the previous four meetings between these teams were all decided by five or fewer points. The Panthers, who have more recent playoff experience than the Saints, are 10-4 ATS as underdogs the past 2+ seasons, 5-2 ATS their past seven. Expect them to improve on those results on Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* BEST BET). The Nets play with 'double-revenge,' as they already lost a pair of close ones against the Celtics, most recently a 3-point loss on New Year's Eve. Playing their best basketball 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS L4) of the season and with the schedule in their favor, I feel they're providing us with excellent value here. The Celtics are off a win vs. Minnesota yesterday and now will be playing their third game in four days. The Nets, meanwhile, are well-rested. Including the cover on New Year's Eve, the Nets are a lucrative 14-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). These teams just met at Atlanta, on 12/30. The Hawks won that one by 15. However, Atlanta isn't nearly as good on the road. Indeed, the Hawks are just 3-16 away from Atlanta. Having just lost at Cleveland, their third straight on the road, and with a difficult 5-game stretch (home game vs. SA, followed by road games at HOU, OKC, NO and MIN) to follow, the Blazers know that they need to take care of business here. Look for them to do just that, avenging the 12/30 loss in "blowout" fashion. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* BEST BET). These teams are both hoping for and expecting big things in the Horizon League this season. Both are perfect on their floor. With this evening's game being played at Rochester (Michigan) I expect the Golden Grizzlies to have a solid advantage. NKU can score plenty of points. However, the Golden Grizzlies can also score with the best of them. While both teams are averaging better than 80 ppg, its the Grizzlies who boast the THREE top-scorers in the conference. All of them are seniors, too. Senior guard Kendrick Nunn leads the conference at better than 25 ppg. Senior forward Jaylen Hayes is at better than 20 ppg and senior guard Martez Walker averages better than 19 ppg. On the road, the Norse are 0-4 this season. They've lost road games at Memphis, Maryland-Baltimore County, East Tennessee State and Texas A&M. Picked by some as the preseason favorite to win the Horizon League, expect Oakland to rise to the occasion and take care of business on Friday night. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Warriors will have payback on their minds, after the Rockets spoiled their home opener. I was at the game and it was absolutely Harden that brought the Rockets back. Without Harden in the lineup, the Rockets can still be pretty good. However, I don't believe that they're going to good enough without him to defeat the motivated champs. While the Rockets are 1-4 ATS their last five, when playing the second of b2b games, the Warriors are 26-15 ATS their last 41 when playing with 'revenge.' PAYBACK TIME.

I'm playing on INDIANA-PURDUE (10* ANNIHILATOR). I like the momentum that the Jaguars bring to the table. They rang in the year by defeating Wisconsin Green Bay, on the road, despite a big disadvantage at the free throw line. They outrebounded the Phoenix by a commanding 43-31 margin, while holding them to less than 40% of their field goals as well as just 1-for-17 from beyond the arc. 

Jason Gardner, IUPUI's head coach, had this to say of his team's last effort: "I liked that we showed we can win a game at the defensive end. That's what we're capable of doing. That way, when shots aren't falling, we're still able to compete and get a huge road win. I thought Ev and D.J. did a great job on the glass and we did a good job of identifying their shooters and challenging their shots."

While the Jags, who have faced the likes of Purdue and Gonzaga, come in with some positive momentum, the Flames have dropped four of five. (The lone win, during that stretch, was a no-line game vs. Trinity.) They lost by 35 last time out and remain winless on the road. 

I'm believe homecourt will prove significant. I'm riding IUPUI's positive momentum and laying the small number. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* GAME OF MONTH). While they're without Vucevic, the Magic are starting to get healthy. Gordon, Fournier and Payton are all back in the starting lineup, at the same time. Biyombo can't do quite everything Vucevic does but is still a capable replacement. He had an impressive 17 boards last time out, while also adding 13 points and three blocks. Houston will be without Harden. Additionally, the Rockets could easily get caught looking ahead to Thursday's game, as they'll be hosting the Warriors on National TV. Thats a rematch of an opening night thriller, which I attended, where the Warriors got their rings. Its also a likely preview of the Western Conference Finals, at least a very possible one. While the Rockets have a big game tomorrow, the Magic get the next couple of days off. In other words, they can leave it all on the floor here. Orlando's last three games have resulted in a victory and two losses of six or fewer points. With the schedule, venue and situation in their favor, expect them to give their guests all they can handle with a great shot at the outright upset.  

I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE (10* GAME OF WEEK). This is a big game for the Eagles. While beating Clemson will not be easy, its entirely possible. Its also perhaps necessary, if BC wants to achieve its goals. Keep in mind that the Eagles already beat Duke and are undefeated at home. Also, note that they lost by only one, at Virginia, last time out. In other words, they're coming in full of confidence and believing that they can win this game. The Tigers are tough and deserving of their ranking. However, they've still only played one true road game this season and they also could be getting a little over-confident. With a showdown vs. Louisville on deck, it may be easy to overlook tonight's opponent. Look for the Eagles, 11-7 ATS their last 18 as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, to give their guests all they can handle, taking this game down to the wire with a great shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN (10* PERS FAV). The Badgers are playing their best basketball right now. While the opponents were admittedly on the weak side, back-to-back-to-back double-digit victories has them full of confidence. Thats something I feel that this relatively young team needed and I expect it to help them this evening. The Hoosiers have played three true road games. They lost all three. Each loss came by a minimum of nine points. They were 0-2-1 ATS in those games. They're now 9-16 SU and 8-15 ATS their past 25 true road games. Speaking of "road woes," the Hoosiers have lost 15 straight at the Kohl Center and haven't won here since the late 90s. Expect the Badgers to continue their homecourt dominance in this series, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR I'm playing on Alabama. I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. Last season, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' For Round 3, I'm backing the Crimson Tide. 

Needless to say, both teams had great seasons. Each had only one loss. For Clemson, that setback came back in mid-October, a shocking upset loss against Syracuse. (The Orange were the worst team in the ACC's Coastal Division this season.) Sure, Clemson lost its QB to injury in that game. However, does anyone really think Alabama would have ever lost to Cuse, regardless of who was behind center?

As you're probably aware, Alabama's loss came much later in the season, as the Tide were defeated by Auburn in their last game. While they may be fortunate to be here at all, based on that loss, I fully expect the Tide to respond with their very best effort. 

Both teams have outstanding defenses. However, I believe that the Tide are better on that side of the ball. They allowed an average of only 11.5 points on the season, a paltry 257.8 yards. Clemson's numbers were close but a little higher. The Tigers allowed 12.8 ppg and 277.9 ypg. On the road, the Tigers allowed 354.5 ypg. Meanwhile, the Tide allowed just 274.8 ypg on the road. The Tide also have an advantage on yards allowed per play. 

While the perception may be that Clemson is superior on offense, the numbers don't back that up. The Tigers averaged a healthy 35.4 ppg and 448.4 ypg. However, the Tide beat them in both areas. Alabama averaged 39.1 and 465.4. 

One of the reasons Alabama lost the game in the Iron Bowl was because of poor health. However, the extended break has given the Tide a chance to recover and they'll be much healthier than they were for Auburn. 

The Tigers are admittedly tough to run against. However, they haven't faced a ground game like this one. I expect the Tide - and their 3-headed rushing attack - to have success on the ground. 

After last year's loss and after failing to cover in both games against Clemson, Nick Saban, who took some heat for not speaking out on Roy Moore, has lost a little of his 'unbeatable' image. Don't buy into that. He's still an amazing coach and he'll have his team ready to go. Expect him to have the last laugh, the Tide taking the 'tiebreaker.'

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* PERS FAV). Admittedly, the Bulls have been on an impressive run of late. However, the majority of that success has come at home. They're still just 4-14 away from Chicago. Now, they'll take on a Wizards team which has been clicking on all cylinders, here at Washington. The Wizards last three home games have ALL resulted in double-digit wins. In fact, they won those three games by a combined 55 points. While the Bulls play again on 1/1, the Wizards don't play next until 1/3. Look for them to leave it all on the floor, closing out 2017 with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK (10* GAME OF WEEK). Many are going to expect the Giants to pack it in. I'm not among them. While I successfully played against the Giants last week, this one figures to have considerably more meaning to them. Home finale. Divisional opponent. Revenge game. Possibly Eli's last start here. (Even if he doesn't play the whole game, he's going to start. And the latest word was: "we want Eli to take every snap.") The Skins played well in their home finale last week. However, like the Giants, they've got issues on both sides of the ball. Look for NY to want this one a little more and that to lead to AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* CBB GAME OF WEEK). The Wildcats beat their instate rivals by scores of 99-61 and 91-75 the last two meetings here. While the Sun Devils are indeed improved and playing well, I don't think that they're ready to win here quite yet. Note that ASU is 0-3 ATS the past three times it was a road underdog in the 3.5 to 6 range. While both teams are scoring big points, note that ASU is allowing 82.7 ppg (49.6% fg) on the road while Arizona is allowing 64.7 ppg (39.8% fg) here at home. Look for that superior homecourt defense to prove the difference. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* BEST BET). The Heat just beat the Magic, at Miami, before Christmas. For this evening's rematch, the Magic have both the venue and schedule in their favor. While The Heat hosted Brooklyn on Friday, the Magic had the night off. The Magic got back on track last time out, a big win over Detroit. Expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game, avenging last week's loss along the way. 

I'm playing on Penn State. The Nittany Lions come in on a roll and full of confidence. They won each of their final three games by double-digits, including a 66-3 dismantling of Maryland in their most recent game. Including that laugher, the Lions are now a lucrative 16-4 SU/ATS when off two or more consecutive SU victories. During the same span, the Huskies, who closed the season with b2b wins, are just 8-10 ATS two or more consecutive SU victories. With Penn State listed as a small favorite, its worth noting that Washington is 0-4 SU/ATS the last four times that it played a game where the line ranged from -3 to +3. The Huskies have indeed been excellent against the run. However, they haven't seen a back like Saquon Barkley, who averaged 179.5 all purpose yards per game. Look for the Lions to find a way to get Barkley the ball in space, ultimately pulling away for the win and cover. 

I'm playing on UCLA (10* MAIN EVENT). I like the direction which the Bruins are closing out 2017. They followed up a narrow win vs. South Dakota with a win and cover against Kentucky last time out. Now, they step down in class to take on a team which they have long dominated. The last three meetings, all of them UCLA wins, have seen the Bruins win by a combined 58 points, nearly 20 per game. This year's Cougars have proven vulnerable to getting 'blown out' as they have already lost by 14 vs. Cal Davis and by 27 against Idaho. Expect a lopsided result. 

10* COTTON BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH. I’m playing on USC. Its true that I won with Ohio State in its last game, 27-21 win over Wisconsin, a game they won by six points. However, I feel that the Buckeyes are over-rated for this one and I expect USC to come in as the 'hungrier' and more focused team. While this is still a "big" bowl game, its definitely not what the Buckeyes were hoping for. With only one loss on their resume, the Buckeyes felt that they should have earned one of four spots in the College Football Playoff. As you know, that didnt happen. As much as they'd like to show everyone that they deserved to be there, I believe the sting of not being chosen is going to take a lot of them. USC, on the other hand, should be happier to be here. While the Buckeyes are admittedly tough on both sides of the ball, I expect the Trojans front seven to cause all sorts of problems. Off five straight wins, the Trojans come in full of confidence. While OSU saw only one game decided by less than six points this season, the Trojans saw five games decided by five or fewer points this season, winning four of those. I expect that "close game" experience to serve them well, as they take this game down to the wire with a great shot at the upset. 

I'm playing on TCU (10* MAIN EVENT). While I respect both coaches and both programs, I like the fact that TCU is playing in its home state. I also believe that the Frogs match up well against the Cardinal. While Stanford has an outstanding running game, one of the Frogs' biggest strengths is their ability to defend the run. Indeed, they ranked #4 in the entire country, in terms of rushing defense. The Frogs are 9-2 SU their last 11 non-conf. games and 7-2 SU their last nine, when off a conference loss. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* VIOLATOR). The Kings have some (potentially) winnable games coming up in the near future. Tonight's game isn't one of them. Off their Christmas Day loss, the Cavs are going to be looking to take out their frustration on someone. The Cavs won here by 12 last season. They were up by 18 at the break and cruised the rest of the way. I expect an even bigger margin tonight, as the Kings don't have the personnel to match up against a motivated Lebron and co. 

I'm playing on SMU (10* AAC GAME OF MONTH). The Mustangs entered Christmas off back-to-back blowout wins. They're perfect at home, averaging better than 80 ppg here while allowing less than 60. UCF, which lost by 38 to WVU earlier, hasn't played a strong opponent in the past few weeks. Outside of 7-foot-6 center Tacko Fall, who presents a unique challenge, I don't think the Knights match up well. I dont think that their recent level of opposition will have them prepared for what the Mustangs are going to bring to the table here. Expect a double-digit win for the home team. 

I'm playing on IOWA (10* ANNIHILATOR). While the Eagles were a profitable team this season, they're not getting many points here and I feel that they'll ultimately be over-matched. BC averaged 26.2 points on offense, Iowa averaged 28.3. While BC allowed 22.5 ppg, Iowa allowed 19.5.  The Eagles are just 2-3-2 ATS (2-5 SU) their past seven, when the line ranged from +3 to -3. During the same span, the Hawkeyes were 4-2-1 ATS, in the same situation. A 56-14 win at Lincoln, on the Huskers' Senior Day, to close out the season showed how explosive that the Hawkeyes can be and has them full of confidence. I expect them to cover this small number. 

I'm playing on DENVER (10* PERS FAV). Homecourt has long been significant for both these teams. Thats been the case once again this season. The Jazz are a healthy 12-6 at home but a poor 3-13 on the road. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 7-12 on the road but 11-3 here at Denver. These teams have already faced each other twice. Given the above home/road records; with both those games being played at Utah, its not surprising that the Jazz won both. In fact, the Jazz have dominanted the Nuggets, at Utah, in recent seasons. However, the Nuggets won both of last season's meetings here at Denver. Both wins came by double-digits. Speaking of "double-digits," the Nuggets are off b2b double-digit wins, most recently winning at Golden State on 12/23. Meanwhile, the Jazz have lost nine of their last 11 and three of the last four losses have been by double-digits. I'm laying the relatively small number with the revenge-minded Nuggets.

I'm playing on UCLA (10* MAIN EVENT). Having won four of five, the Wildcats come in with a lot of momentum. Meanwhile, Bruins' QB Rosen is currently listed as doubtful while the coaching staff is in transition. That has many expecting a big win for the Wildcats. That sentiment, in turn, has created a generously big pointspread. I'm not expecting the Bruins to just roll over and I feel that they're offering excellent value. K-State's last three games were all decided by five or fewer points. Its last four were decided by seven or less. UCLA's last three games were decided by seven or fewer points and its last two were decided by five or less. The Cats were just 2-4 ATS when favored and they're only 5-11-1 ATS in that role the past few seasons. I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on OKC (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Thunder have had this one circled ever since the Rockets knocked them out of the playoffs last year. While Houston has indeed been impressive this season, I expect Westbrook and co. to rise to occasion. Keep in mind that the Thunder haven't been getting points at home since a November game against the defending champs. They stepped up and beat the Warriors by 17 in that one. Including that result, they're 7-4 ATS the last 11 times that they were home underdogs. Look for them to improve on those stats on Christmas Day. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* BEST BET). Both teams lost last week. The Texans got destroyed at Jacksonville. The Steelers lost a heartbreaker against the Pats. While Pittsburgh was obviously much better in its loss, I believe that it will be easier for the Texans to 'bounce back' from theirs. For Houston, this game is as big as its going to get. Home finale. National TV. A chance to show the world that its a better team than the record indicates. The Steelers, on the other hand, have bigger games ahead. Last week's 'thriller' marked their fourth consecutive game which was decided by three or fewer points. Losing in that fashion can take a toll. Not having Antonio Brown doesn't help, either. Six of the Steelers' last seven have been decided by a less than a touchdown. I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Its obviously been a disappointing season for both teams. While neither will be going to the playoffs, I expect the Cards to be the more motivated team on Sunday afternoon. After all, this is their home finale. They're still 4-3 here on the season and a victory gives them a winning record here. On the other hand, the Giants are just 1-6 on the road. Last game here, the Cards beat the Titans by five. A month ago, they beat the Jags here. While the Cards are off b2b "non-divisional" games, the Giants are off b2b divisional contests, the type that can take a toll on a team. They fought hard vs. the Eagles last week but it wasn't enough. Off that tough loss and with another divisional game, their home finale, on deck, its going to be hard for them to "get up" for this one.  While the Giants allow 396.8 ypg on the road, the Cards allow just 286.4 ypg at home. Expect the home fans to go home happy. 

I'm playing on TOLEDO (10* MAIN EVENT). The line came down a little from its opener providing us with value on the favorite. The Mountaineers put up a big number in their last game but I expect them to have trouble keeping up this evening. Toledo scored better than 39 ppg on the road this season. Appalachian State, meanwhile, managed just 26 ppg on the road. Rockets, who have scored nearly 150 combined points their past three, pull away for the double-digit win. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* NON-CONF GAME OF MONTH). Off back-to-back SU victories, the Gophers are back on track. Now, they catch an inferior opponent going in the opposite direction. The Owls followed up a close 1-point loss by getting destroyed by 36 points, as a 23-point underdog, last time out. Off that loss, playing their final game before Christmas, it should be easy for them to "pack it in," once they start falling behind. Expect the Gophers to give their fans a Christmas win and cover. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). Oakland, which lost at Eastern Michigan a few weeks back, is 7-2 ATS its last nine when attempting to avenge a road loss. While Eastern Michigan averages 74.5 ppg (44.7 fg %) on the road, Oakland averages 89.6 ppg on its home floor, connecting on better than 51% of its field goals. Payback time. 

I'm playing on WYOMING (10* GAME OF WEEK). On Wednesday, Wyoming coach Craig Bohl confirmed that his star QB, Josh Allen would start the Potato Bowl: "Josh and I had a long talk, and Josh is ready to play and start in this football game. He's had several great practices, and so he's in position to be 100 percent." Thats the good news that I'd been waiting for. Allen's a big time talent and he makes the Cowboys a far better team. On defense, led by Andrew Wingard the Cowboys are outstanding. They allowed just 17.8 ppg. While CMU finished the season on an impressive run, I look for the time off to favor what I feel is an under-rated Wyoming team. The fact that Wyoming played here on the Blue Turf (lost but covered) two months ago, should also work in its favor. Cowboys roll. 

I'm playing on CAL (10* PERS FAV). Portland State has been money at the betting window this season but I expect that to change this evening. After scoring 95 and 81 points in their past two games, the Bears come in full of confidence. Portland State has been beating up on the likes of Linfield. They just lost by 11, narrowly covering the +13, against a Pac-12 team two games ago. Expect their ATS good fortune to run out tonight, the Bears improving to 13-7 the last 20 times that they scored 80 or more points in their previous game.

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE (10* PERS FAV). Too many advantages for the Cards in this one, as they're far stronger on both sides of the ball. While Albany is 0-7 its last seven against teams from the ACC, Louisville is a perfect 20-0 SU and a profitable 14-6 ATS its last 20, when listed as a home favorite of greater than a dozen points. Albany allows a 48.9% field goal percentage on the the road, while Louisville limits opposing teams to just a 37.1% mark here at home. It all adds up to a blowout. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* PERS FAV). While the Nets had yesterday off, the Kings are off a hard fought victory over the 76ers. Even with that victory, however, they're still just 3-12 against teams from the East. Playing the final leg of a 4-game trip, it should be easy for them to go through the motions, as they look forward to returning home for a game against the Spurs on 12/23 and to spend Christmas with their families. Off three straight losses, the Nets are going to be in a foul mood. Look for them to take it out on the Kings, en route to a convincing win and cover. 

I'm playing on TB (10* MAIN EVENT). While its been a disappointing season for the Bucs, they're still fighting hard. Only one of their past five games has resulted in a loss of greater than six points. That one loss came at Atlanta, vs. these same Falcons, a 34-20 setback a few weeks ago. Since then, like the Bucs, the Falcons have been involved in some close games - a 5-point loss and a 3-point win. Playing with revenge against a divisional rival and getting to do so on Monday Night, I expect the Bucs to treat this game like their Super Bowl. Look for them to give the Falcons, who have been outscored by a 22.8 to 22.7 margin on the road this season, all they can handle, with an excellent shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on OKC (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played against the Thunder in their last game. However, that was a tough spot. Not only were they on the road, but they were off a 3-OT game the previous day. However, the Thunder have since had a day off and now they're back home. Thats significant as they're 9-4 at home compared to 5-11 on the road. They'll be playing with 'revenge' from an earlier loss to the Nuggets, at Denver. Like their hosts, the Nuggets aren't nearly as good away from home. At Denver, they're an impressive 11-2. However, like the Thunder, they're just 5-11 on the road. Look for homecourt to make the difference, the revenge-minded Thunder bouncing back with a convincing win and cover. 

I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA (10* PERS FAV). The Bulls got on track with a confidence-building 83-63 win last time out. That makes it five times in their past seven games that they've allowed 65 or fewer points. That type of defense will be the difference this evening. Northern Arizona is off b2b double-digit losses and has allowed 70 or more points in 10 of 11 games this season, an average of 81.2 ppg overall. While Northern Arizona is allowing opposing teams to hit a whopping 50.6% of their field goals on the road, USF is allowing a stingy 38.4% here at home. Expect the Bulls to pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE TECH (10* PERS FAV). Chattanooga has alternated wins and losses for nearly a full month now. Off a win last time out, I expect the pattern to continue and for today's game to result in a loss. Note that the Mocs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU victory. Tech comes in hungry, off three straight road losses. Keep in mind that the Golden Eagles had won six straight, prior to that skid. When listed as the home team, Tech is 4-0 and has outscored opponents by a commanding 92-63 margin. Expect them to bounce back and take care of business this afternoon, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on BYU (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Utes have had the better of the Cougars in recent seasons. However, I expect the Cougars to take care of business this evening. Granted, the schedule hasn't been exactly tough. Still, the Cougars check in with a 5-game winning streak and full of confidence. The last four of those victories all came by greater than five points. While perfect at home, Utah has struggled on the road. The Utes' last road game resulted in a double-digit loss at Butler. Before that, they'd lost a neutral site game against UNLV by 27. Off a win over another instate rival (Utah St) look for the Utes to have a minor letdown here with the Cougs more than happy to take full advantage.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). I attended the 11/11 game, at Phoenix, between the T-Wolves and Suns. Behind a huge game from Booker, the Suns won that one. Since then, however, Booker has gotten hurt. The Wolves already got some payback with an 11-point win here at Minnesota. I expect an even more lopsided margin this evening. The Wolves, who are off a 23-point destruction of Sacramento, know that they'll play at Phoenix again on 12/23. A look at the rest of their December schedule reveals that this is their "easiest" game remaining in 2017 - at least, they wont be favored by this much again. With the Suns at just 6-18-1 ATS (3-22 SU) the past 25 times that they played with exactly two day's rest, look for the Wolves to take hold serve at home, doing so in convincing fashion. 

I'm playing on BOISE (10* MAIN EVENT). I won with the Ducks in their last game, a 69-10 thrashing of Oregon State in the "Civil War." So, I'm well aware that the Ducks enter the Bowls on a roll. Its important not to over-react from that blowout. First, Oregon State was terrible this season. Second, that was only game. Even factoring in the result, the Ducks have still lost four of their last seven. The Broncos eked out a win in their last game and have now won eight of their past nine. Boise did lose by three points at Washington State earlier in the season. However, that same Washington State team hammered the Ducks by a score of 33-10. Plus, the Broncos had to face the Cougars on the road while the Ducks got to host them. With the Broncos a profitable 26-14-1 ATS their last 41 as underdogs, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO (10* PERS FAV). The Kings need to take advantage of this winnable game. They just finished a tough 4-game trip. Then, they lost here vs. Toronto. After this, they embark on another fairly difficult 4-game trip. The Suns already beat the Kings earlier. That was at Phoenix and with Booker in the lineup. Booker had called it a "must win," as it was the first game after the coach had been fired and came on the heels of Bledsoe having been sent home. I backed the Suns in that one (Oct. GOM) and they rewarded me with their first win. With tonight's rematch at Sacramento and the Suns now without Booker, expect the revenge-minded Kings to get some payback.