Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on UTAH VALLEY STATE. These are two solid teams. Both played well in non-conference action. Both will be anxious to get WAC play started with a win. Playing at home, I expect the Wolverines to be the team which gets it done. This is the first conference game as a member of the WAC for the Wildcats. The last thing that the Wolverines want to do is to let a first-year team, led by a first-year coach, come in and beat them in their home (conference) opener. Remember, the Wolverines won at Washington last time out. Earlier, they beat BYU. One "big" advantage that the Wolverines have is Fardaws Aimaq. The 6-11, 240-pound center averages a double-double (19.4 points and 13.7 rebounds) and is one of the top big men in the country. He had a 15/15 line last game, 20/16 the game before that. The Wildcats would have been better equipped to deal with Aimaq last year, when they had 7-foot Kohl (and 6-foot-8 Pleasant) in their lineup. They don't though and will have no answer for the Utah Valley big man. Look for the Wolverines, 3-1 ATS their last four as home favorites of three or fewer points, to give the Wildats a rude welcome to WAC play. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers narrowly missed covering at Chicago, last time out. Now, they're back home and they've had a couple of days off between games. Having already lost both this season's meetings with the Hornets, they're going to be extremely hungry this evening. Note that both those games were at Charlotte and that Indiana lost by one point and three points. While the Hornets are off an impressive blowout against Houston, they're just 9-16 ATS the past 25 times that they were coming off a double-digit loss. The Pacers were slight favorites for the last meeting here at Indiana. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss against the Hornets, they won by 27. Expect them to get some payback again this evening. 

I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. The Irish haven't been covering too regularly. That's helped keep this line a little lower than it otherwise could have been. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. While they didn't cover, the Irish still won by 10 last time out. That's b2b wins and three of four. That includes a victory over Kentucky. With Duke on deck, they absolutely need to take advantage of this winnable game. The Panthers lost last year's top player, Champagnie did a lot for them. Then, early this season, Horton (their top returning scorer) was arrested for aggravated assault. He's been suspended indefinitely Those were big losses. The Panthers didn't feel them so much in non-conf action but they will now that ACC play is here. The Irish won by 26 here last season. The combination of Champagnie and Horton had 27 of the Panthers' 58 points. To put that another way, the entire Pitt. lineup, minus those two players, scored only 31 points in last year's game. ND had 84. The Irish won't win by as many this year but they'll win by "enough." Look for them to improve to 18-9 ATS their past 27, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 120s.

I'm playing on UTAH. The Spurs have performed pretty well when playing the second of b2b games recently. However, those games haven't come against the revenge-minded Jazz. Even without Mitchell, the Jazz are loaded. They haven't forgotten that the Spurs upset them, at Utah. Note that the Jazz are 3-0 SU/ATS the past three times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. The last time that the Jazz played here was almost exactly one year ago. Laying six points, they won by 21. The Spurs may have won three straight but they're just 4-7 ATS (1-10 SU!) the past 11 times that they were on a 3-game winning streak. The Jazz outscore teams by a 114.5 to 102.5 margin on the road, best in the NBA. Expect them to avenge the earlier loss, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on NO. As you probably heard, or figured by this line, the Saints are dealing with Covid issues. At this time, few teams aren't. The Dolphins haven't been hit nearly as hard as NO but they, too, are dealing with some cases. Some teams have been folding. Others, however, have risen to the occasion. I expect the well-coached Saints to fall into the latter category. Book has the advantage of having Alvin Kamara in the backfield. Yes, the Dolphins are hot. Keep in mind that the Saints just blanked the defending world champs though. Also, don't forget that Miami is 2-4 away from home. Those wins came by an average of four points and were both against divisional opponents. They've lost all three road games against teams from outside the AFC East. The Saints are 10-4 ATS their last 14 as underdogs. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Pacers are just 1-5 ATS (2-4 SU) in divisional games. The lone ATS victory came against these same Bulls, last month. It was a 109-77 blowout. Considering that was their worst of the season, it's safe to say that the Bulls haven't forgotten. The Bulls have had some time off. In this case, its a good thing, as it has allowed them to get a number of players back. While last month's 109-77 blowout was here at Chicago, the Pacers are still 6-9 ATS (3-12 SU) on the road. The Bulls are still 9-5 ATS (10-4 SU) at home. Look for a highly motivated effort from the revenge-minded Bulls, as they improve to 5-3 ATS their last eight in the revenge role. 

I'm playing on UTAH. *This play was released on Dec. 15th. Since that time, with Doncic (and others) out, the line has climbed. I still like the Jazz at the current, much higher pointspread. Dallas is in the wrong place, at the wrong time. As of this writing, on Dec 15th, Doncic has missed a few games in a row for the Mavericks. It appears that he'll miss at least a few more. Whether or not, he's back for Christmas Day, remains to be seen. Either way, the Mavs are going to struggle. Utah has been outstanding but is still arguably flying under the radar. The Jazz sit on top of their division and (as of this writing) have outscored teams by an average of 11.1 points per game. That's right there with the Warriors (11.6) but no other team in the entire NBA is even close to that mark. Brooklyn is best in the East at only +3.5. As for the Mavs, they're at -0.1. They score 104.4 and allow 104.5. The Jazz lost their last visit to Dallas. However, they've beaten the Mavs by double-digits, each of the past two meetings here at Utah. Scores were 120-101 and 116-104. More of the same on Christmas ... Good luck and wishing everyone a safe and happy holiday season!

I'm playing on BALL STATE. This line has climbed since its opener. I feel that's providing us with excellent value with the underdog. With a victory over Coastal Carolina, Georgia State is certainly worthy of respect. The Cardinals are no slouches either though. Led by an experienced QB, they've got a balanced offense. The defense wasn't a strength but got better down the stretch. While the MAC doesn't get much respect, we just saw Miami Ohio take care of business against North Texas. Prior to that, NIU played Coastal Carolina tough, losing by six. Keep in mind that these teams had a common opponent in Army. The Knights hammered Georgia State by a score of 43-10. Ball State, on the other hand, beat Army by double digits. The Cardinals are 5-3 their last eight games and two of the three losses were by seven or less.  They're 13-3 ATS their last 16 against teams with a winning record. Four of their final six games were decided by a TD or less. In what should be another close one, I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on UTAH. This is a mismatch, at the best of times. The Jazz already won this season's earlier meeting by 32 points. These aren't normal times though and this "situation" is far from ideal, for the visitors. The T-Wolves are off a double-digit loss and they'll be without Anthony Edwards, Patrick Beverley, Josh Okogie, Taurean Prince, and Jarred Vanderbilt. Playing without those important players, at one of the toughest venues in the league, in their final game before Christmas, is going to be tough. The Jazz won't take them lightly though. They haven't forgotten that the Wolves beat them in both meetings here last season. They also recently lost two in a row, before bouncing back to win last game. So, they don't want to let down at all, prior to Saturday's showdown with the Mavericks. Note that Utah is 2-0 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games, 16-7 ATS (18-5 SU) it's last 23. The Jazz already outscore visiting teams by an average of 116.2 to 106.9. Again, this isn't a normal situation though. I see this one getting ugly. Jazz in a rout. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA. I liked this game but waited for this line to dip below seven. As of this writing, at several shops, it finally has. While I'm not surprised, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. I say that I'm not surprised as I've been listening to people call for the upset ever since this matchup was announced. Many seem to think that the Knights will be the more motivated team and that the Gators will go through the motions. Surely, the Knights are fired up at the chance to take down their big name instate 'rivals.' They've been wanting to face Florida for years. Sometimes, teams and people need to be careful what they wish for though. Contrary to popular belief, the Gators ARE going to be hungry. They don't want to be embarrassed by an instate team. This is their chance to show everyone that they're better than their record indicates. Remember, the Gators are battle-tested against the likes of Georgia and Alabama. They very nearly beat the Crimson Tide, in fact. While Miami wasn't on the schedule, Florida has beaten South Florida, Florida Atlantic and Florida State. The avg margin of victory was 15.33 points. I'm expecting another double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. While the Cavs may not be what they were a few years ago, this line could still be higher. Virginia "got healthy" last time out and will carry the momentum into this evening's game. Laying 25 points, Virginia won by 33. The Cavs allowed a mere 49 points. They've now allowed 56 or fewer points in three straight games and seven of their past eight; the type of dominant defense we've come to expect from them. The Tigers don't fare too well when playing a road game which is expected to be low-scoring. They're 2-5 SU/ATS their last seven road games, when the O/U line was in the 120s. The Cavs won by 35 the last time these teams met. They won by seven the last time the teams played here. They're 16-2 SU and 11-6-1 ATS the last 18 meetings here. Expect them to continue that dominance this evening. 

I'm playing on SDSU. Regardless of what happens here, the Roadrunners have had a remarkable season. They can hold their heads high. I won with them in their last game, an impressive win over WKU. However, in their previous game, I successfully played against them. I feel that this will be another good spot to do so. Admittedly, the Aztecs didn't look too good in their last game. They were blown out by Utah State. That was just their second loss the entire season though. The Aztecs bounced back with a 7-point road win, after their previous loss. They're 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS their last six, when off a conference loss. Remember, this SDSU team beat the likes of Utah (currently #10 in the country) and Boise State. When playing with more than a week's rest earlier this season, they won 31-7, delivering one of their more dominant efforts of the season. Note that the Aztecs are 8-3 ATS their last 11 against non-conference opponents. Unlike their opponents, the Aztecs cannot "hold their heads high" if they don't win this game. Arguably, anything less than a "W" here will make for a disappointing season. I say they bounce back and get the victory, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. The Musketeers have gotten off to a great start. Tonight, however, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Keep in mind that Villanova has played one of the toughest schedules in the country. The Wildcats have taken on the likes of Purdue, UCLA and Baylor, three of the top five teams in the country. Other opponents have included Tennessee and Syracuse. Xavier has beaten some solid teams, like Ohio State, V-Tech and Oklahoma State. However, those teams aren't in the elite class of the ones that Villanova has been contending with. The Wildcats are already "battle-tested" against the best and that should serve them well tonight and going forward in Big East play. While the Wildcats may have lost b2b games, they're still one of the strongest and best coached teams in the country. Xavier coach Steele knows what's coming. He commented:  "... we know we're gonna get their best shot. They're coming off a loss against Creighton and a loss to Baylor before that. I know this, coach Jay Wright's gonna have them playing at a very, very high level on Tuesday night." Indeed. The Cats have dominated Xavier here and that will continue.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. These teams last met exactly one year ago, on December 20th, 2020. The Bears were underdogs but won outright, by six points. I'm expecting history to repeat itself. While the Vikings have risen to the occasion against some of the league's better teams, they've quietly gone 0-7 ATS their last seven against teams with a losing record. They lost their last two road games (Detroit, SF) outright. Note that 12 of Minnesota's 13 games this season have been decided by "single-digits." The only time that the Vikings won by more than eight points was back in September, a home game against Seattle. While they came up short against GB and Arizona, a pair of tough teams, the Bears are still battling hard. Prior to those two losses, their previous three games had all been decided by a field goal, or less. While the Bears are dealing with some Covid issues, that's the way things are these days. The Vikes have problems of their own. As Chicago coach Nagy noted: "It's the next-man-up mentality, not just for the players, but for coaches, too, is the way that I look at it. In these types of moments, what you've got to do is try to stay really positive, take care of your body, stay together and realize that we're not the only ones right now in that." I'm expecting Nagy's troops to leave it all on the field and, in what should be a close game, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on OKC. These teams faced each other on 12/2 and the Grizzlies absolutely embarrassed the Thunder. The final score was 152-79! That's the type of loss you don't forget and this is a great spot for OKC to get some revenge. That humbling blowout got the Thunder going, as they've been better ever since. They're off b2b wins and are 4-2 ATS their last six games. Last time out, they held the Clippers to just 103 points. Note that they're 12-8 ATS their last 20 in the 'revenge' role and 10-3 ATS the past 13 times that they held their previous opponent to 105 or fewer points. That win over the Clippers came on Saturday and the Thunder had yesterday off. They had two days off before the Clipper game, too. That's not the case for the Grizzlies. They're off a hard-fought loss against Portland. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Grizzlies will also be playing their third game in the past four days. Schedule in their favor, look for the revenge-minded Thunder to give their hosts all that they can handle. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. These teams last met two years ago. The Bulldogs were favored by 16 points. They won by 21. While the Bulldogs are laying a smaller number this evening, I'm expecting another blowout. Off a loss to George Mason, the Bulldogs are going to be in an angry mood and looking to take it out on someone. That was their first game without Jailyn Ingram and the Bulldogs missed him. However, as coach Crean noted: "Now we have a game under our belt without him. There's no question that it was different. But that's what we have now. Guys have to understand that this is our team." Crean went on to comment: "The problem for us, at times, was that we didn't follow the game plan defensively. And that just can't happen. We've got to be more physical. We've got to be more tuned into what we do, awareness-wise." I expect the Bulldogs to listen to their coach and for them to be far more physical and intense on defense. As of this writing, the O/U line is 145.5. That projected pace figures to favor the Bulldogs. They're 8-3 ATS (10-1 SU) their last 11 home games, when the O/U line ranged from 145 to 149.5. During that span, the Catamounts were 4-6 ATS (1-9 SU) in 10 road games with an O/U line in that range. Going back further finds them at a dismal 13-34-1 ATS (5-43 SU) in 48 road games with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. The Catamounts haven't played for awhile and may have some early rust. Look for the Bulldogs to jump all over them and keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE. The Cajuns could easily be bigger favorites. They lost their opening game. Since then, they've reeled off 12 straight wins. That includes a pair of wins against Appalachian State, a team which defeated Marshall. The Thundering Herd got crushed 53-21 last game, one of five losses. The Cajuns are strong offensively but they also rank 18th in the country in terms of points allowed. They give up just 18 ppg. (Marshall ranks #41st and allows 23.) Of course, it should be noted that the game is being played in New Orleans, only a short drive from Lafayette. The line is relatively low, in part, because of Louisiana having a new coach for this game. However, I'm not so worried about that. This is a veteran team led by a veteran senior QB. They've had plenty of time for the new coach to get familiar with everything; the offense will remain the same. Off the loss to WKU, note that Marshall is just 1-5 ATS its last six, when off a conference loss. Expect Louisiana to punctuate its outstanding season with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. This line could easily be higher. Not only are the Warriors playing the second of b2b games, but they're reportedly only sending nine players to this game. That list of nine players doesn't include Curry, Wiggins, Green, Poole, Porter or Iguodala. While I'm sure that the remaining players will fight hard, they're going to be outmatched. The well-coached Raptors will know better than to take their short-handed guests lightly. The Raptors are playing well right now, as they're 5-1 ATS in December. Last time on this floor, they won by 23 points. Look for them to take advantage of this favorable situation, ultimately pulling away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. Admittedly, Colorado has been a little inconsistent. That said, if the Buffaloes play up to their potential, this is a mismatch. I believe that they will. With Kansas on deck, followed by Pac 12 play, the Buffaloes need to put it all together. CSU Bakersfield is the perfect opponent to do that against. The Roadrunners are off a double-digit loss against Abilene Christian. They're averaging only 56.7 ppg on the road (39.4% field goals) and are going to have trouble scoring here. Note that they're 4-9 SU/ATS their last 13, when playing a road game with an O/U kine in the 120s. Meanwhile, during that span, the Buffaloes are 4-2 ATS (6-0 SU) when listed as home favorites in the -12.5 to -18 range. Colorado coach Tad Boyle had this to say: "I would sure like to put 40 minutes together, and we haven't even come close this year. We haven't even scratched the surface ... " Expect the Buffs to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, en route to a blowout victory. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers are desperate to snap their skid. I expect their very best effort. I also believe that Charlotte is the perfect opponent for them to snap their skid against, as they've long dominated the Hornets here. The Hornets beat Portland in this season's earlier meeting. However, that was at Charlotte. The Hornets aren't as good on the road. Recent losses notwithstanding, the Blazers are stronger at home. That first meeting also saw Ball lead the Hornets with 27 points. He's missed games recently though and is currently questionable for this one though. Even if he does return, his conditioning may not be at 100%. Either way, the Blazers are going to be bringing it. They also lost at Charlotte last season. However, in the game here at Portland, they beat the Hornets by double-digits. Including that result, they're 13-4 ATS and 15-2 SU the past 17 meetings here. Enough's enough. Blazers bounce back. 

I'm playing on TARLETON STATE. These teams just met, at South Alabama. The game was close. The Texans had a lead at halftime. However, playing at home, the Jags won the second half, picking up the victory while covering by half a point. With this evening's rematch being played at Tarleton, I expect the revenge-minded Texans to get some payback. The Texans have taken on the best teams in the country. Literally. Their opponents have included Gonzaga, Kansas and Michigan as well as "lesser" teams like Stanford and Wichita State. The Jags also faced the Shockers (both teams lost by 14) but didn't go up against any of the others that I mentioned. Anyway, I expect that extremely difficult schedule to start serving the Texans well. They're 3-1 SU at home and the lone loss came by two points, as a 16.5 point underdog. They know they can compete with this team and I expect the Texans to score the minor upset. 

I'm playing on WRIGHT STATE. The Zips are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Raiders have been the best team in the Horizon the past few years. When all is said and done, the Raiders will be at or near the top, again. The Raiders are well-rested, having last played on 12/4. The last (and only) time that they played with seven or more day's rest this season, they won by 13, as a four-point favorite. The Zips are no slouches. They'll have a tough defense and should have a solid season. However, it's going to be difficult for them to keep up with Wright State in this one. The Raiders, who scored 86 points in their lone home game, are going to want to get out and run. Akron is averaging 55.7 ppg on the road. Playing at home will help Wright State dictate a faster tempo than Akron wants to play at. Behind a big game from Grant Basile, look for the Raiders to come through with the win and cover. 

I'm playing on WEST HAM. Big game for both teams. A win for West Ham (4th in the standings) gives them some separation between them and Arsenal. The Gunners sit in sixth. However, if it goes the other way, there will be only one point separating them. Needless to say, both teams are going to be hungry. A draw is certainly a possibility. I believe the Hammers are catching the Gunners at the right time though and I'm expecting the outright win. Arsenal is going through some problems right now; the Gunners just stripped Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang of his captaincy and he won't be playing today. They're centre-back (White) has been weak/vulnerable against balls in the air. While they're close in the standings, United has a +9 goal differential, compared to a -1 mark for Arsensal. That's a big difference through only 16 matches. Go with West Ham. 

I'm playing on WICHITA STATE. The Braves are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Alcorn State has played an absolutely grueling road schedule thus far. To their credit, the Braves have been relatively competitive. Still, it's starting to catch up with them. They've had some close losses but they've also had four double-digit losses. A 22-point loss at Houston in their last game was excusable, as the Cougars are tough. However, in their previous game, the Braves lost by 21 at Tulane. The Shockers are a lot stronger than the Green Wave. Like their guests, the Shockers have played some tough opponents. They've also had a few close losses. However, they also have wins over the likes of UNLV, Missouri and OK. State. They beat Norfolk State by "only" 13 last time out, narrowly missing the cover. The Spartans won their league title and went to the NCAA Tournament last year though; they're stronger than Alcorn State. The Braves' blowout loss at Tulane came after they'd had a break in between games. That's the case again here. It's going to be hard for them to go back on the road and "get up" for another blowout loss. I say the Shockers keep their foot on the gas the whole way and run their road-weary guests right out of the building. 

I'm playing on LA. The Clippers have had this game circled. Recall that the Suns eliminated them from the Western Conference Finals last year. This is the first meeting since. While neither team will be at full strength, Booker's absence figures to have the biggest impact. He went down Nov. 30th; the Suns are 1-3 ATS in December. Booker averaged 25.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.7 assists in last year's six playoffs games vs. LA. The Suns may have closed out the series here. However, the Clippers are still 10-3 ATS the last 13 meetings here. Off three straight wins, the Clippers have been rounding into form. They have tomorrow off (Suns play at Portland) and they'll be bringing it tonight. Payback. 

I'm playing on NDSU. I played on the Bison in their last game. I noted the following: "The Matadors are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. These teams faced each other in 2019, at Northridge. The Bison won by nine. Playing on their homecourt, angry off a loss, I expect a bigger margin of victory tonight. This is a veteran NDSU team; some of the players are still starting that were in the 2019 win. Guys like Eady and Kreuser, a first-team All Summit choice last year. In fact, the Bison returned all five starters from last year's team. They won 114-51 last time on this floor. They're catching CSUN, which has a first year coach, off losses of 18 and 26 points. While NDSU should finish near the top of the Summit conference, CSUN should finish near the bottom of the Big West. Expect a double-digit victory." While Indiana State represents a tougher challenge, I like what I saw from the Bison and I expect them to build momentum from their victory. The Sycamores have a first year coach. Last month, they saw Tyreke Key go down to injury. He was their leading scorer from the previous year and had been considering turning pro. Note that Key led all scorers with 27 points when these teams met in 2019. His injury was devastating to this team and his absence will be noticed in this one. The Sycamores are 10-17 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons. The Bison are 24-4 SU at home, 7-5 ATS as home favorites of three or less. They'll improve on those stats. 

I'm playing on HAMILTON. This is a rematch of the most recent (2019) Grey Cup. I won with Winnipeg in that one, stating the close nature of recent Grey Cups and the value of getting points and mentioning that the Bombers were peaking at the right time. (If interested, I've included that writeup below.) That seems like a long time ago. Much has changed. This time, the Ti-Cats are the team getting points. This time, I believe that Hamilton is the team peaking at the right time. The Cats have won their last three games (3-0 SU/ATS) by a combined score of 74-34. On the other hand, the Bombers are 0-4 ATS their last four games. They won their most recent game by three points and lost their last two outright. While the 2019 game was played at Calgary, the Cats have the advantage of playing this one in Hamilton. They're 5-0-1 ATS their last six home playoff games. I'll grab the points but I expect the TiCats to score the outright win. 

My 2019 Grey Cup writeup on Winnipeg >  I have a pretty good memory of sporting events when I was a kid and actually recall the last time these teams met in a Grey Cup. That was 35 years ago, back in 1984. Yikes! Those were back in the days when all of Canada watched the Grey Cup. Many Canadians, ourselves included, only had a couple of channels. So they didn't have much choice. As I lived in Southern Ontario, I was definitely cheering for the Ti-Cats. Western teams were dominating in those days though; I even recall the Eskimos crushing the Cats in 1980 and Winnipeg won by a convincing 47-17 score. Both teams won a couple Grey Cups in the next 15 years after that 1984 beatdown but neither has won in this millennium. Both have lost their last couple of times here. Both will be hungry. Four of the past five Grey Cups have been decided by six or less. Another close one won't surprise which makes getting more than a field goal very attractive. While the Ticats had the edge in the reg. season, the Bombers are peaking at the right time. They're 8-1 ATS their last nine as underdogs. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. These teams just faced each other on 11/28, at Baltimore. Playing at home, the Ravens were able to grind out a 16-10 win. The Browns have some things going for them in this afternoon's rematch, starting with the venue. Playing at home makes a big difference for both teams. They're 4-2 at home compared to 2-4 on the road. Likewise, Baltimore is 5-1 at home but 3-3 (2-4 ATS) on the road. Its also important to mention that the Browns had last week off. The Ravens, meanwhile, were involved in a battle (20-19 loss) that came down to the final play, with rival Pittsburgh. We already saw that game take a toll on the Steelers, as they weren't very good at all on Thursday. I expect it to also have an effect on the Ravens. Note that Jackson was sacked seven times in the game. Also, note that the Ravens saw all-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey go down to injury. Meanwhile, Mayfield and the Browns will benefit from the extra week of preparation and recovery time. Like all teams, Cleveland is dealing with a number of injuries. That extra week off to recovery is huge. Last season's game between these teams was a wild (47-42) affair, won by the Ravens. This year, schedule in their favor, the Browns get some payback.

I'm playing on WILLIAM & MARY. The Stags have gotten off to a strong start. The Tribe has not. However, those results have provided us with an extra generous line for this afternoon's game. Consider that Fairfield was only a 1-point favorite, despite playing at home, the last time (2019) that these teams met. That was a close game, W&M eventually winning by four. With the Tribe off a 1-point game, I'm expecting another close one this afternoon. The Stags, 12-19 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons, are just 6-9 ATS their last 15 as favorites. Note that all five of their road games have been decided by 10 or fewer points. Look for the Tribe to bring their best effort, taking this game down to the wire with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Flyers were severely short-handed when they faced the Warriors earlier this season. They also were on the road. Yet, despite being on the road and playing without the likes of Harris, Simmons or Emibiid, the 76ers took a 61-52 lead into halftime. While they couldn't keep it up in the second half, things are different this time. This time, the 76ers are at home, where the crowd can keep them engergized the whole way. Simmons remains out but Harris and Embiid are back. Needless to say, that's a huge difference. Not only does Embiid dominate but he gets the other team in foul trouble.  Kerr sais this of Embiid: Playing against Joel is like going into a time machine,” said Warriors coach Steve Kerr. "It's like playing against Patrick Ewing or Shaq or Hakeem Olajuwon, it's a low post-game. He will step out and shoot 3s and run some DHOs and he's good with that, but he's one of the few guys in the league now who can dominate a game from the low block and they've done a great job with their roster. Putting a lot of shooting around him ...  Doc Rivers does a great job just making you guard everyone, putting you in tough spots where you have to make decisions, and leave some people open potentially. So a very difficult cover and we definitely have our hands full." The Warriors won here last season (No Harris or Simmons for Philly) but they're long had trouble here. They're just 3-11 ATS their last 14 visits here. While the talk will be about Curry chasing the record, Embiid and the 76'ers will take this one. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Musketeers have been playing well. After missing out for a few years, they should get back to the NCAA Tournament this season. I expect them to have their hands full with their crosstown rivals though. The Bearcats have lost two games. However, both losses came by six or less. They've since responded to those losses with a close win and then a bigger win. They're coming in confident and excited to play in this game. The Bearcats are off a down year and they lost by eight to Xavier. They're much stronger this season though and their new coach has them buying into what needs to be done, particularly on the defensive end. The Bearcats allow just 58.1 ppg. They hold opposing teams to a 35.3% field goal percentage. That's the fifth best in the entire country. The Musketeers are just 14-27-1 ATS their last 42, when laying points. The last two meetings were both decided by eight or less and Cincy won by 15, the year before that. Look for this one to come down to the wire, the Bearcats with an excellent shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S. The Hawks should fare well in their conference. They're not going to be ready for the Red Storm though. The Storm switched up their lineup before last game and it resulted in a 14-point win over Fordham. To its credit, Monmouth has played well. However, the Hawks are starting to grow a little road weary and this is a strong St. John's team. Note that Monmouth is just 3-7 ATS its past 10, after playing its previous three games on the road. The Storm only has two losses. They came against Indiana (2-point loss) and Kansas. Neither game was when they were listed as the home team. Five of six wins came by nine or more. The Storm are averaging 85.2 ppg (2nd best in Big East) and connecting on better than 50% of their field goals. The Storm have scored 74 or more in every game. Ultimately, Monmouth, which is averaging less than 66 points over its past three games, won't be able to keep up. These teams haven't met since a 10-point win by the Storm eight years ago. Sticking with the same lineup that came through last game, expect another double-digit victory for St. John's. 

I'm playing on LA. This one sets up nicely for the Lakers. LA, which should have all of its big guns available, had yesterday off. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are off a hard-fought and emotional loss against the Mavericks. It was physical and close the entire way. I call it "emotional" as there were numerous technicals called and Dillon Brooks got ejected. The Grizzlies weren't happy with the officiating and complained afterwards. While all that was going on, the Lakers were waiting for them. Last night's loss snapped the Grizzlies' season high 5-game winning streak and brought an end to their positive momentum. Remember, this team is still without Morant, its best player. Note that the Grizzlies lost by double-digits the last time that they played the second of b2b games. The Lakers beat Boston by 15 points last game. In their last road game, they beat Sacramento by 25. Their previous road game resulted in an 8-point win at Indiana. They're 27-15 ATS (31-11 SU) their last 42 road games, when the O/U line was 220 or higher. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on SE. MISSOURI STATE. These teams played a very close one, at Evansville, last season. Playing on their home floor, the Purple Aces ended up eking out an OT victory. (They won it by converting a 3-point play with 1-second remaining in OT.) With tonight's rematch being played on their home floor, I expect the Redhawks to return the favor. Note that the Purple Aces are an ugly 2-10 ATS their last 12, as road favorites. The Redhawks have many of the key players from last year's game. Eric Reed Jr. led the Redhawks with 16 point in last year's game. He's back and coming off a 33-point effort last time out. Last year's result should give the Redhawks confidence, as well as some added motivation for this one. Evansville is just 5-22 SU it last 27 road games. Expect the Redhawks to score the minor upset. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. The Dolphins are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Admittedly, the Bulldog had been struggling. However, they bounced back to beat Memphis in their last game. They were down at the break and rallied for the victory. That was what they needed and I expect them to follow it up with a blowout win in this one. Note that Georgia beat this team by 33 points last December. This will be the Dolphins fourth time on the road in their last five games. They average a mere 55 points on the road. It doesn't help matters that guard Kevion Nolan has a banged-up knee. He's the team's best outside shooter and his status is day-to-day. However, regardless if he plays, it won't be enough. They may not win by 33 again but in the end, it'll be another double-digit win for the Bulldogs. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO. At the beginning of the season, it looked like the Bills might run away with the division. The Patriots have found their way though. They enter this game on a 6-game winning streak. Currently, New England is 8-4 while Buffalo is 7-4. The teams will meet again in Week 16, at Foxboro. The Patriots have indeed fared well on the road. However, their road record includes wins against the Jets, Texans, Panthers and Falcons. All those teams are below .500 at home and overall. The Chargers are the only winning team that the Pats beat on the road. The Chargers are just 3-3 at home, too. So, yes, the Pats have played well on the road. However, they haven't faced a team with a home record as good as Buffalo's. While the Bills stumbled a couple of times in November, they closed the month strong. In addition to playing at home, I like that they've had some extra preparation time for this one. Over the past few seasons, the Pats are 4-6 SU/ATS when playing a game with a line in the -3 to +3 range. During that span, the Bills are 12-5 ATS when doing so. The Bills allowed a mere 190 yards in their last game. Look for them to be at their best tonight, improving to 10-1-2 ATS their last 13, after holding their previous opponent to 250 or fewer yards. 

I'm playing on COLGATE. This is a mismatch. The Raiders have quietly dominated the Patriot League over the past four years. They were 50-16 in league play, the past four seasons, 11-1 last year. They were second in the entire country last year, in terms of scoring. This year's team brought back four starters. On paper, it's arguably even stronger than last year. They've got talent, depth and experience. Poor Columbia. The last time that the Lions played on the road they lost by a score of 98-60. That was against an opponent (UMBC) which isn't as good as the one they'l face this evening. The score was 49-19 by halftime. While the Lions did bounce back from that beating. Their win came against the Maine Brown Bears. Also, note that they're just 2-9-1 ATS their last 12, after having covered the spread in their previous game. Overall, the Lions are 0-4 on the road. With Colgate 7-2 ATS its last nine home games, against teams which have won less than 40% of their road games, expect this one to result in a blowout. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Obviously, I respect the champs. While I didn't touch last week's game, I won with the Bucs in their Monday night game against the Giants, two weeks ago. This Sunday, however, I feel that they're over-valued and I believe that they're walking into a hornet's nest. Admittedly, the Falcons have had a couple of duds. Their losses against New England and Dallas were ugly. However, they responded by winning their last game. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into Sunday. The 48-25 score suggests that the Bucs dominated the Falcons, in this season's first meeting. That wasn't exactly the case though. In fact, the Falcons had an edge in total yards and time of possession. The score was 28-25, entering the fourth quarter. Now, playing their second straight road game and with a big game against Buffalo on deck, the Bucs are laying double-digits on the road. They're 1-6 ATS as road favorites. That includes an 0-4 ATS record their last four on the road, when facing a team with a losing home record. This game is huge for the Falcons. Expect them to give the Bucs all they can handle for the full four quarters. 

I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. It's been a tough start to the season for the Bengals. However, a visit from the Lumberjacks will be just what the doctor ordered. The Bengals' sub-par early resuls have helped keep this line lower than it otherwise could have been. Idaho State beat this team in both last season's games. Both games were at Northern Arizona, too. The Bengals brought all their starters back from last year and they match up well with this team. The Bengals are 13-9 ATS their last 22, when off a conference loss. Knowing that their next game will be diffcult (road game at Cal) expect the Bengals to dig deep and play their best game of the season. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. These teams both deserve credit for getting here. Neither were expected to do so. That said, I feel that the Aztecs are the stronger team. The Aggies wouldn't be here if San Diego State hadn't beaten Boise State last week. After everything that happened to the program last year, just being here is already a big win for Utah State. Of course, they want to win. However, the season has already been a huge success. That's not the case for the Aztecs; they're hungry for more. Last season's game wasn't even close. The Aggies ran for 407 yards. That was one of the best (9th all-time) rushing efforts in school history. I expect the Aztecs to dominate on the ground again. While one could possibly overlook Utah State giving up 437 rushing yards to Air Force, this season's Aggies also gave up 362 rushing yards to lowly Wyoming. The Aggies did bounce back from the blowout loss to Wyoming but the win came against a bad New Mexico team. They're also 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were off a conference loss. While the Aggie defense is highly suspect, the Aztecs are dominant on that side of the ball. They allow just 17.3 ppg. That's the 7th best mark in the country. While they got off to a 3-0 start, the Aggies have since stumbled against tough competition, losing against Boise and BYU. All their wins, since the 3-0 start, have been against weak or mediocre teams. On the other hand, the Aztecs have beaten the likes of Utah. I'm expecting them to pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on UTSA. I successfully played against the Roadrunners in their game against UAB. They were favored in that game though and I felt that they were over-valued. I'm not convinced that Western Kentucky is any better than UAB. Yet, this time, the Roadrunners are getting points. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. UTSA won by six when these teams met at Western Kentucky, earlier in the season. That one was close the entire way. Both teams have played some other close ones, too. Like WKU's 2-point game with Indiana or UTSA's 3-point games against Memphis and UAB. Off this season's first setback, note that the Roadrunners are 8-1 ATS the past nine times that they were off a SU loss. They're also 6-1 ATS their last seven, after allowing more than 200 rushing yards and 4-0 ATS their last four, after throwing for less than 170 yards. The Roadrunners played in bad weather, on the road, last week. They were dealing with increasing pressure from being undefeated. As their coach said, they were probably a "little off." Three turnovers didn't help. Now, however, they're back home. To a certain extent, the pressure is off. With the line having climbed from its opener, I believe we're getting excellent value. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. The Bengals have gotten off to a tough start at the betting window. However, their games have been largely on the road. They're home now and this is the start of conference play, essentially a new season. The Bengals' non-conference ATS struggles have worked in our favor here, as the line is lower than it easily could have been. This is a very experienced Idaho State team, one which has been anxiously awaiting the start of Big Sky play. The Vikings are winless on the road, where they're averaging 57.5 ppg and hitting a mere 34.4% of their field goals. Granted, those two road games have come against tough opposition. Still, the Vikings have yet to show that they can shoot away from home. They're 8-19 SU on the road, the past 2+ seasons. Speaking of homecourt, the Vikings had the advantage of playing at home for both of last season's games against the Bengals. The teams split those games. Playing at home will help allow the Bengals the opportunity to dicate the tempo of the game. The Bengals believe that they can make some noise in the conference this season. Expect them to get things started with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. While I respect the Hokies, they've lost two in a row and I believe that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Of course, one could say that most of the time, when they face good teams on the road. They're 1-10 ATS their last 11 road games, when facing a team with a winning home record. With a 4-1 home record, the Terps certainly qualify. They're 31-8 here the past few seasons. Note that the Terps are 4-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when listed as a home favorite (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. During that span, the Hokies were 0-2 ATS as road underdogs (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. Going back further finds them at a money-burning 9-16 ATS their last 25 in that situation. These teams haven't met for several years. However, the Terps dominated the most recent meetings, going 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS. Look for the 1-point loss against Xavier to take a toll on the Hokies and for homecourt to prove the difference for the Terrapins.

I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Warriors have been on a remarkable run at the betting window. I say it comes to an end this evening. The Suns have been every bit as hot as the Warriors, arguably hotter. Golden State is 7-0 its last seven and 18-2 on the season. Phoenix is 17-3. However, since the Suns started 1-3, they've now won 16 straight. Indeed, this is a true clash of titans. Both teams have been excellent, at both ends of the floor. However, if one looks closely, the Suns' home numbers are slightly better than the Warriors' road numbers. Not only do they score more points at home than the Warriors do on the road, but the Suns hit a higher percentage of their field goals (48.4% to 46%) while holding visiting teams to 43%. When on the road, the Warriors allow a 43.6% field goal percentage. The Suns lost their last road game against the Warriors but won big the last two meetings here at Phoenix. Scores were 120-98 and 114-93. Obviously, the Suns haven't needed Thompson. However, they've got some other players banged-up right now, too. I say homecourt proves the difference and the Suns keep on rolling for another day. 

I'm playing BOSTON on the puck-line (-1.5 goals) While the Bruins are fairly steep favorites on the money-line, we're able to get them as small underdogs on the puck-line. In this case, I believe that's where the value lies. Trips to Boston rarely go well for the Red Wings. Indeed, the Bruins take care of business against teams like Detroit. They're 6-0 their last six against losing teams. As mentioned, they've owned the Wings here. The Bruins won the last two meetings here by scores of 5-1 and 4-1. The Wings scored an upset here in December of 2018 but that's been their only win here in years. Thirteen of Boston's last 15 home wins against Detroit have been by multiple goals, too. The Wings are 1-7 their last eight on the road and the only victory came at Buffalo. They hung within a goal of a bad Arizona team (2-1 loss) last time out but their previous five road losses all came by more than a goal. So, when on the road, they can compete with the other really bad teams (Buffalo and Arizona) but not against the stronger ones. Knowing their schedule gets tougher after this, expect the Bruins to go all out in this one en route to another multi-goal victory. 

I'm playing on TCU. If looking at the Horned Frogs' 1-4 ATS record, it might be easy to think that they haven't been playing well. That's not the case though. The Frogs have won four of their five games and they've just narrowly missed out on the cover in three of their wins. Laying 22, they won by 16. Laying 13.5, they won by 13. Laying 11, they won by nine. In other words, they were a bucket or two away from covering. They didn't play well against Santa Clara, in their lone loss. However, I like how they responded in their win over Pepperdine. Back home and with a number of much tougher games coming up, I expect the Frogs to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, in order to build up their confidence and momentum. They're catching Austin Peay at the right time. The Governors are at the end of a long 5-game road trip. It started way back on 11/12, with a 73-55 blowout loss at SUI. Now, more than two weeks later, they're finally at the end of the trip. I expect them to be a bit "road weary" and don't believe they'll have necessary energy to compete with the Frogs on their home floor. While the Frogs are 6-4 ATS their last 10, after failing to cover their previous three, the Governors are 1-3 ATS their last four road games, with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. I'm expecting a blowout. 

I'm playing on NY. I successfully played against the Giants last game. However, that was a road game against the defending champs. Back home and stepping down in class, this one sets up a lot better for them. A look at the Giants' schedule shows that they've had to face some really tough teams. Prior to the Bucs, their last six games were against the Raiders, Chiefs, Panthers, Rams, Cowboys and Saints. To their credit, the Giants won three of those and they nearly beat the Chiefs, losing by only three. Prior to those six games, the Giants had a pair of losses, both by three or fewer points. So, last week notwithstanding, this team has been very competitive. Firing Jason Garrett should light a spark for the offense, too. While the Eagles have won a couple in a row, they're 2-4 ATS the past six times that they were off b2b SU victories. They're also 7-12 ATS as favorites, the past few seasons. The short week shouldn't both the Giants; they're 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were off a Monday night game. This is the first meeting of the season; these teams will play again Dec. 26th. In each of the past two seasons, the first meeting in this series has been very close. The first 2019 meeting went to OT. Then, last year's first meeting was decided by a single point. The Giants would go on to win by 10 points, in the game here at NY. Look for the Giants to bounce back with a big effort and grab the points.

I'm playing on OREGON. The Ducks stumbled against Utah but I expect them to bounce back big this afternoon. Not only are the Ducks looking to atone for last week - a win sets up a rematch with Utah - but they've got revenge on their minds. The Beavers upset them last year, at Corvalis. The Beavers have been tough to beat at home this year, too. However, they've only played three road games (Colorado, Cal, Washington State) since the start of October and they lost all three. They lost those three by an average of eight points and none of those venues/teams are as tough as the one they'll contend with today. While last year's game was close, the previous six weren't. All six of those were decided by "double-digits," the Ducks taking five of them. The Ducks have won the last two against the Beavers here by a combined score of 93-20. Expect another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on DENVER. Jokic has missed the past few games and is currently questionable for this one. As he was close to being ready for the last game, I'm hopeful that he'll be good to go tonight. However, even if he doesn't, I expect the Nuggets to bring their A game. A date with the defending champs is always a big deal. In this case, the Nuggets are also desperate to snap their losing streak. That's even more important, given the fact thay hit the road for a long trip, after this game. While I successfully backed the Bucks in their last game, that was at home against a tired Pistons team. Now, at a very difficult venue, they'll take on a rested Denver team. The Nuggets are 19-9 SU the past couple of seasons, when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Bucks, meanwhile, are 1-5 ATS in six games against teams from the West. They're just 27-44 ATS against Western Conf. teams the past couple of seasons. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. You often hear people state that "you can throw out the records" in these type of rivalry games. Personally, I don't necessarily subscribe to that theory; I never discount a team's record. However, in this case, I do indeed expect the team with the inferior record to prove victorious. The Huskies are argualy better than their record suggests. Their only loss of greater than 10 points was on the road, at Michigan. They had four losses of seven or less. So, they could easily have a better record. The Cougars have won just three of 12 road games the past couple of seasons and they've got an 0-2 ATS mark as road favorites, in those games. Sure, the Cougars are off an impressive 44-18 blowout of Arizona. The Wildcats aren't very good though and the Cougars are just 1-8 ATS the past nine times that they scored 40 or more points in their previous game. The Huskies have dominated the last six Apple Cup meetings, each win coming by double-digits. While I see this one being closer, in the end, I expect another Washington win. 

I'm playing on ORAL ROBERTS. Naturally, I respect OSU. While they lost Cunningham from last year's team, the Cowboys are still really strong. That said, this is a tough spot and I expect them to have their hands full. Its the day after Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are on the road. After a little break, they have a big game against Wichita State on deck. Those teams played a 3-point game last year. Speaking of close games, Oral Roberts always comes to play against these Cowboys. These teams met at OSU last year and the Cowboys won by only five. In fact, the same was true the previous season. OSU was laying double-digits in both games but the scores were 83-78 and 80-75. Abmas scored in double-digits in both games including a 33-point game last year. He's back and leading the Golden Eagles again. Oral Roberts is 6-1 ATS its last seven as an underdog and 17-6 ATS against winning teams, the past few seasons. Grab the points and expect another close one.  

I'm playing on DALLAS. This line could easily be higher. True, the Cowboys are banged up at the receiver position. True, they lost 19-9 last week. They've still got weapons though and last week's loss was on the road, against the Chiefs. They're back home now; their last game here they won 43-3. The Raiders are a mess. They've lost their last three games by a combined score of 96-43. Remember, this is a team which lost its head coach. The Raiders also saw a top receiver get arrested. Then, they released their first round cornerback due to some online threats he made. Naturally, those type of things take a toll. While the Raiders still have a talented team, playing on a short week, here at Dallas, is not the place for them to "get healthy." Not only are the Cowboys 6-1 ATS their last seven home games but they're also been money when coming off a loss. Last Thanksgiving, the Cowboys had Andy Dalton at QB. They were playing with heavy hearts, as their strength and conditioning coordinator (Markus Paul) had passed away. Then, they lost a pair of starters on the game's first drive. They went on to get pounded 41-16. Things are much different this year and I expect a determined Dallas team to bounce back with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Pistons deserve some credit. They've really been fighting hard lately. However, hard fought losses can take a toll. Mentally and physically. Last night, in what is becoming a familiar routine, the Pistons were up on Miami. Though they hung on to cover, they blew the game. That's b2b very close losses. Both were games against good teams, which they could have won. Again, those type of defeats can be demoralizing. Now, off those "heartbreakers," they play their second game in two days and third in the past four. In fact, this is their eighth game since 11/12. That's a brutal schedule and the tough losses make it worse. The last six of those games were at home but that 8-game stretch started with a 20-point road losses. The Bucks had yesterday off. Prior to that, they'd had b2b "easy" games against the Magic. Last time out, they won by 31. They should be the far fresher team tonight. They already beat the Pistons by 28 in this season's earlier meeting. Expect another blowout. 

I'm playing on SMU. When these teams met last season, the Mustangs were favored by 17. They won by 30. This should prove to be another mismatch. The Mustangs haven't fared too well at the betting window, thus far. However, they've been close. In their first game, they won by 24, as a 28-point favorite. Next, they lost on the road at Oregon. No shame in that. They bounced back from that loss with a 47-point win, as a 20.5 point favorite. Then, they won by 17, laying 20. That was followed by an OT loss against Missouri. Off that tough loss, they stumbled again the next day. Now, off b2b losses, they're absolutely going to be in an angry mood. While the Mustangs have scored 70 or more in each of their last four games, the Bearkats have failed to hit the 60 mark in two of their last three. Last game, they managed a mere 55 points against Boston. They're 1-5 ATS the past couple of seasons, after failing to score 60 points. Expect the Mustangs to bounce back with a statement blowout. 

I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. The Huskies have the better record and are playing at home. Yet, the Broncos are favored. That's for good reason, in my opinion. While the Broncos have fallen on hard times recently, this is still one of the top teams in the MAC. They played road games at (10-1) Michigan and (9-2) Pittsburgh earlier and came away with a split in those games. Naturally, they'd still like to win. However, the Huskies have already clinched the conference title. On the other hand, the Broncos know a victory here would surely punch their ticket to a bowl game. (They're probably good already but its not a certainty.) They've obvioulsy done a great job but I'm still not sold on the Huskies. I say the Broncos take this one, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on TCU. The Broncos are undefeated to start the season. I expect that to change Monday. Like Santa Clara, the Horned Frogs are undefeated. While the competition has been relatively weak, the Frogs have still taken care of business. Every win has come by double-digits. TCU is holding opposing teams to a field goal percentage of 33.5. That ranks among the best marks in the entire country. Entering the season, Santa Clara coach Herb Sendek was quoted as saying: "We're very much a work in progress with this group coming together." Facing the best defense that they've seen, I believe that we'll finally see some "growing pains" from Sendek's group tonight. 

I'm playing on TB. I won with the Giants when these teams met last November. At the time, I stated that I liked how the game set up for the Giants and that I felt the Bucs were getting overvalued. This one sets up differently. Many are suddenly now down on the defending champs. Back to back setbacks will do that. Keep in  mind that those losses were both on the road. The Bucs are 4-0 SU at home, 7-1 ATS their last eight. Indeed, they're been a different team at Raymond James Stadium. The last three times that they played here they won by scores of 38-3, 45-17 and 48-25. While they've been more competitive of late, the Giants are still a 3-6 team. They've lost by 14 or more points three times. Tampa averages 31 ppg while NY averages 19.9 ppg. Tampa averages 406.4 ypg. NY averages 334. Tampa's dealing with a number of injuries but the Giants' injury issues are arguably even worse. The Bucs are 6-2 ATS over the years, as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. Expect them to improve on those stats with a statement blowout. 

I'm playing on UNLV. Naturally, I respect the Shockers. In fact, I've already played on them this season. However, I feel that this is a tough spot for them to be laying points. For starters, though technically a "neutral court affair," this game will be played in Vegas. Also, the Rebels are stronger than some might realize. They're only loss was last game against a very strong Michigan team. Additionally, the Shockers are off a tough OT loss against Arizona. Those type of defeats can be tough to bounce back from. Note that the Shockers are 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) the last four times that they were off a game where they allowed 80 or more points. The Rebels, who have already been involved in three very close games, are 7-0-1 ATS the past eight times that they were a "neutral court" underdog in the 3.5 to 6 range. Grab the points.

I'm playing on LA. With or without Doncic, I like the Clippers in this one. If the Mavs do get their star back, he may be at less than 100%. He's pretty banged up. The return of a superstar can often also cause the rest of the team to experience a minor letdown. Off b2b losses, there won't be any letdown from the Clippers. The last time that the Clippers had lost two in a row was in late October. They immediately snapped the skid with a 5-point win. The Clippers also lost two in a row to start the season. Again, they stopped the bleeding right there, delivering a 30-point rout of the Suns. In those two "slump-busting" wins, the Clippers allowed just 86 and 94 points. Note that both LA losses came on the road. Last time here, the Clippers won by 14. Last time these teams met, the Clippers won by 15. Expect the Clippers to elevate their defensive intensity and bounce back with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. This is an absolute mismatch. The Spartans left it all on the floor last game. They came up a point short though, losing 67-66 at Cal Baptist. Now, off that tough loss and playing their third straight on the road, they take a big step up in class, as they face one of the top teams in the country. Note that SJSU is just 11-21 ATS (4-28 SU) its last 32, when facing a team with a winning record. The Longhorns bounced back from their loss to Gonzaga with a double-digit win. They allowed just 49 points. The Spartans, who have managed 66 and 62 their last two games, figure to have trouble scoring. Not Texas. The Longhorns scored more than 90 in their opener and they'll be looking to put up a crooked number in this one. Note that Texas is 9-5 ATS its last 14, as a home favorite in the -24.5 to -30 range. Indeed, this should be one of the bigger blowouts on the board. I see Texas keeping the pedal to the medal the entire way and winning by more than 30. 

I'm playing on UAB. With Oklahoma losing to Baylor, there are now only three undefeated teams remaining. Georgia is obviously the real deal. Cincinnati is also pretty strong. I'm not sold on the third team though. Unlike Georgia, UTSA has faced a very soft schedule. The Roadrunners toughest opponents were Illinois, Memphis and Western Kentucky. While the Roadrunners deserve credit for winning, all three of those games were close and they were fortunate to avoid any losses. They gave up more than 400 yards in all three of those games including a whopping 670 against WKU. With an early game at Georgia, UAB was never going to go undefeated. Still the Blazers are 7-3 SU/ATS and surely more "battle-tested" than their hosts. Throw out the Georgia loss and the Blazers are 5-0 on the road. All five wins came by at least a TD, three of them by more than 30 points. Last week's victory at Marshall was arguably as, or more, impressive than anything UTSA has done.The Blazers have beaten the Roadrunners each of the past four years and they held them to less than 300 yards of offense in each of them. I'll grab the points, as this one could be close, but I expect there to be one less undefeated team, when this one concludes.

I'm playing on BC. Both teams have had highly disappointing seasons. This one sets up nicely for BC though. They've got a homegrown talent playing at QB, highly motivated to close the season with a win. A victory would see them avoid finishing last. They've got the home crowd behind them. Perhaps most importantly, they've got a big scheduling edge. While the Lions are well rested, the Elks are playing their third game in seven days. (This happened because the Elks had a make-up game from an earlier one ppd due to Covid.) It all catches up with the Elks tonight, as they fall to 1-6 ATS their last seven, when off a SU victory. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. Hofstra has been a force in the CAA for years. However, this is a tough spot. With Speedy Claxton taking over as head coach, the Pride switched their defense from zone to man-to-man. That may ultimately prove dividends. However, it's still a work in progress. They allowed 82 points last game and are allowing an average of 76. This Hofstra team has a lot of new faces and will take some time for everyone to learn to work together. Here, the Pride are playing their fourth straight road game. Off an 8-point loss at Iona, they're now taking a big step up in class. Indeed, this is a strong Maryland team. Off an upset loss, the Terps are going to be angry, too. Maryland coach Turgeon noted: "We have to be great on defense until we learn how to move the ball a little bit better...." Expect the Terps to elevate their defensive intensity, playing their best game and taking out their frustration on their outmatched road-weary guests. 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS. While I respect the Panthers, I believe that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Razorbacks have failed to cover in either of their first two games. Those results have helped keep this line a little lower than it easily could have been. I feel that they're ready to put it all together en route to their first victory at the betting window. Arkansas won't be caught off guard: Coach Musselman noted this of Northern Iowa: "They're an NCAA Tournament-caliber team. They were banged up injury-wise their first two games. They'e now back healthy. … We better bring our A-game ... " I expect his team to listen and for them to be ready. While Musselman may be right that the Panthers will end up pretty good, they're not there yet and they won't be ready for what they encounter here. Yes, they are getting their players back from injury, as Musselman noted. However, this is no place to try and "work out the kinks." Note that the Panthers are 3-7-1 ATS their last 11 as underdogs. While they may not have been covering, the Razorbacks have still been playing well and winning comfortably. With K-State on deck, they'll keep the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. 

I'm playing on WICHITA STATE. The Shockers have been tested in winning their first two games. They failed to cover in either. Those results have helped keep this line a little lower than it easily could have been. I feel that the Shockers are ready to put it all together with a more lopsided victory. Wichita State's schedule gets considerably more difficult after this. The Shockers have a mix of quality veterans (Etienne, Udeze, Dennis) and young talent. Coach Brown knows the young players will benefit from a blowout win and gain much needed confidence for the more difficult upcoming games. The Texans know all about tough games. They began their season by playing at Stanford. Then, things got even tougher for them with a game at Kansas. (To their credit, the Texans did "relatively" well. They lost by 12 and 26.) Still, they've already had to travel to the West Coast and back and now they're playing their third straight very difficult road game. I expect it to catch up with them. Shockers keep the pedal to the metal and win going away. 

I'm playing on WMU. After getting upset by the Eagles last season, the Broncos have a score to settle. They're much better on both sides of the ball and the only reason the line is reasonable is due to the fact that they're on the road. That said, note that the road team is 5-1 ATS the past six meetings. Also, note that the Eagles have lost their last two games here, each loss coming by at least seven points. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in off a 45-40 victory. Admittedly, the defense wasn't as stingy as it normally is. However, it should be mentioned that the Broncos are 10-2 ATS, when coming off a game where they allowed 280 or more passing yards. So, they tend to respond from a sub-par defensive effort with a big game. Expect them to do exactly that tonight. They'll put up a big number and ultimately the Eagles won't be able to keep up. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Nuggets pounded Dallas, at Denver, on 10/29. At the time, the Mavs were off a game the previous night. The Nuggets were playing with two day's rest in between games. I took advantage of the situation and released a big play on Denver. The Nuggets won 106-75. The shoe is on the other foot tonight though. This time, the Mavs are the home team. This time, the Mavs are the team playing with two day's rest. This time, the Nuggets are the team playing the second of b2b games. This time, I expect the revenge-minded Mavs to take advantage of the situation. The Mavs put it all together last time out, a double-digit win at San Antonio. They also won their last home game by double-digits. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to get some payback. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Needless to say, the Warriors have gotten off to a great start. That's been mostly due to their strong play. However, they've also benefitted from playing the majority of their games at home. This will be just their fourth road game, their first against an Eastern Conference opponent. Note that the Warriors are just 7-14 SU/ATS their last 21, against teams from the Southeast. Its also worth mentioning that the Warriors have a date with the Nets (and former teammate Durant) on deck. Off to their hot start and with that game on deck, it would be easy to look past Charlotte. The Hornets are playing well themselves though and they're off b2b victories. They're right behind the Warriors (#1 and #2 in the league) in terms of points scored per game. In fact, the Hornets' 118.2 ppg average here at home, is #1 in the NBA. (GS averages 115.3 on the road.) The Hornets beat the Warriors by two here last season. Playing with revenge from last week's road loss, look for them to give their guests all they can handle, once again. 

I'm playing on STANFORD. For a team which has been playing such close games, the Beavers are laying a lot of points. The Beavers' last two games were losses of three and six points. Their last five games have all been decided by eight or less. Speaking of "close games," the last two meetings between these teams were both decided by a field goal. Stanford won both. In fact, the Cardinal have won 11 straight in the series. Oregon State just replaced its defensive coordinator as the defense has really struggled. The Beavers have allowed more than 30 points in each of their last four games. While the Cardinal have certainly disappointed, this is still a team which has wins against USC and Oregon. They're going to be hungry to get back on track and to prove they're better than they showed last game. I like that they're working with an extra day in betweem games. I'm expecting a close one and am grabbing the generous points. 

I'm playing on BELMONT. I won with the Purple Aces in their last game. However, now they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Belmont is a quality team, a major step up in class from the team (IUPUI) which Evansville just faced. The Bruins have been invited to the postseason 14 of the past 16 years, going to the NCAA Tournament in nine of those. Last season, the Bruins finished with 26 wins. Entering Selection Sunday, they were tied with Gonzaga for the most wins in the country. This year's team essentially brought back everyone from last year's team, too. These teams met last season, at Evansville. The Bruins won by nine. Four Belmont players (Wood, Smith, Muszynski, Murphy) scored in double-digits. All four are back. However, it was Ben Sheppard who led the way with 25 points in the Bruins' first game. The fact that Evansville won and covered last game, while Belmont lost its only game, has helped to keep this line a little lower than it easily could have been. The Purple Aces are 0-5 ATS their last five, after allowing 50 or fewer points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Bruins are 5-0 ATS after allowing 90 or more in their previous game. Expect an angry Belmont team to bounce back and win this one in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Huskies have a very difficult non-conference schedule. Those tough games were designed to get them ready for conference play, not with the thought of actually winning them. Somehow, NIU managed to win the first of them, an upset at Washington. However, this is an even stronger opponent and the Huskies won't be catching anyone by surprise, this time. I like the fact that Indiana was tested but prevailed in its first game. That will serve as a wake-up call. As for the Huskies big win, they're 0-4 ATS the past four times that they were off a SU win and 0-5-1 ATS their last six, when off a cover. With a new coach, they're still going to go through some early growing pains. The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -18.5 to -24 range, 25-15 ATS (40-0 SU!) the past 40. Expect a one-sided blowout. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a mismatch and I expect it to get ugly. Undefeated on the season, the #5 ranked Bearcats want to make a statement that they're a national title contender. This is their chance to show the world how good they really are. Major advantages on both sides of the ball, I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. Off b2b double-digit losses, the Bulls have seen better days. They haven't faced an opponent as good as Cincinnati, yet they've lost by double-digits five times. Three of those losses came by greater than 21 points. Indeed, this is a USF team which is absolutely capable of getting blown out, again. The Bulls are going to have real trouble moving the ball and they won't be able to stop the Cincy ground game. While the Bearcats allow 14.9 ppg, the Bulls allow 34.3. Look for the Bearcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, as USF falls to 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) its last six, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. 

I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. The Tar Heels are off a win over Wake Forest. Down double-digits, they dominated the fourth quarter. While some might expect a letdown, I believe that type of comeback victory will provide them with positive momentum for this game. The Panthers are having a strong season. However, the Tar Heels match up well against them. Also, note that Pittsburgh lost outright to Miami last time it was on this field. Getting points in this matchup is an attractive proposition as games between these teams tend to be to close. They've met eight times since 2009 and ALL eight of those games were decided by seven points or less. Pittsburgh won the most recent game in OT. The previous three meetings were decided by three, three and one points. Overall, UNC has covered five of the past seven meetings. With the line having climbed from its opener, I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on EVANSVILLE. I believe that this will prove to be a mismatch. The Purple Aces have a lot going for them. They match up well against this team, they're playing at home and they're considerably more experienced, entering the season. While their record still wasn't great, the Purple Aces were a much improved team last season. That was with a new coach and a young team. Now, their coach is in his second year and four of five starters returned. This is a team on the rise. Yet, Evansville knows that wins won't be easy in its competitive conference. It needs to take advantage of opportunities like this one. That's particularly true with the Aces off a loss at Cincinnati and with a tough road game, against an experienced Belmont team, on deck. IUPUI is excited to have a new coach of its own. That said, the Jaguars, who are off yet another sub-500 year, lost last season's top three scorers. Crenshaw may have once been a hero, as a player, at the school, but he can't be expected to work miracles overnight. Expect Evansville to pull away with a comfortable double-digit win. 

I'm playing on RICE. The Owls have gotten stronger each of the past few seasons and this should be their best team yet. Last year started shakily, injuries taking a toll. However, by the end of the season, the Owls were playing their best. They made it to the C-USA semis and posted their first winning season in the past several years. Now, hungry to build off that and to get off to a fast start, they bring back every starter from that team. Unlike their hosts, the Waves lost a couple of key players from last year's team. Not only did Pepperdine lose Kessler Edwards to the NBA, but point guard Colbey Ross is also gone. He's Pepperdine's all-time scoring AND assists leader. In fact, he was the first Div 1 player to score 2200 or more points, while adding 800 assists and 400 rebounds. Needless to say, those two will be missed. While Pepperdine is still going to be solid, I feel that the Owls, who have been money in recent home games, will have the advantage out of the gate. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. While the line may seem large, this is a mismatch. WMU, 11-5-1 ATS its last 17 as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 range, has big edges on both sides of the ball. I successfully played on the Zips when they beat Bowling Green. That was their only conference win of the season though. The rest of their MAC games have been losses; their only other victory came against Bryant. Blowout losses (60-10 and 59-7) against Ohio State and Auburn were expected. However, the Zips have also been blown out (45-10) by the likes of Buffalo. Now, they've just fired their coach, who had led them to a 3-24 record during his time there. Don't expect the Broncos to show them any mercy. They're better than their record suggests and they still need a victory to become bowl eligible. They won 58-13 at Akron last year and this one will also get ugly. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Nuggets have been won three of their four home games but have been having trouble covering the big pointspreads. That's not an issue for tonight's game though. While the Heat are tough, this is a difficult venue. Denver is 55-23 here the past couple of seasons. The Nuggets beat Miami 123-106 in last year's game here. Jokic had a triple-double, one of six Denver players to score in double-figures. After that game Miami coach Erik Spoelstra noted: "They're a unique team, the way they pass the ball, the way they cut off the ball. They really make you have to concentrate and trust what you do for the entire possession. They were able to exploit a few of those things against us in the second half.'' Look for homecourt to prove significant. 

I'm playing on the LA RAMS. While the Titans have been rolling, I expect the Rams to provide them with a dose of reality. This will always going to be a very tough game. When news broke Monday morning about Henry being out, it got much tougher. While I'm generally of the mind that one running back is pretty much the same as another, there are obvious exceptions. Henry is one of those. The Titans will miss him. Again, this was going to be a tough game even with him though. The Titans left it all on the field in a divisional battle last week. They're now playing their second straight on the road. Prior to that, they'd had huge games against the Chiefs and Bills. I expect it all to catch up with them. The Rams are off a relatively "relaxing" 38-22 blowout of Houston. Prior to that, they'd faced the Lions and Giants. While the Titans are weary from all their battles, after facing all those losing teams, the Rams are itching to finally have one. They're 7-3 ATS their last 10, when facing a team with a winning record, in the second half of the season. Statement win and cover for the Rams. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. These are two good teams and both have gotten off to strong starts. They'll meet again at Utah in a week. Armed with that knowledge and knowing they hit the road after this, I expect the Heat to hold serve at home this evening. The Heat lost last time out. Off their only previous loss, they responded with a 17-point win in their next game. They're 19-12 ATS (23-9 SU) the last couple of seasons, when off an upset loss. They're also 5-1 ATS their last six, after scoring 105 or less. The Jazz have been playing quite a few road games to start the season and they play again tomorrow night. Miami gets tomorrow night off. The home team won and covered both meetings last season. More of the same this evening. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. While I respect the Nittany Lions, I feel that this is a tough spot for them to be laying this many points on the road. For starters, the Nittany Lions have dropped three in a row. Also, the Terps can score points with the best of them. They average 29.5 ppg. Penn State averages 26.5 ppg. At home, the Terps average 36.2 ppg and 473 ypg. On the road, the Lions average 20 pgg and 326 ypg. True, Penn State may be thinking about revenge. Maryland scored a major upset in winning 35-19 at State College last year. That result should give the Terps confidence though. Also, Penn State is still probably thinking about what could have been, coming off three straight close losses - the first two by a field goal or less and last week by single digits against Ohio State. Those type of losses take a toll. On the other hand, Maryland snapped a losing streak of its own last week, earning a momentum building 38-35 victory vs. Indiana. I also like the fact that Penn State has a huge game vs. Michigan on deck. As badly as the Lions need this win, they'll still have next week's game in the back of their minds. While the Terps have struggled against top tier teams (Iowa, Ohio State) I like how this one sets up for them. Remember, this is arguably a better Maryland team then the one which beat the Lions on the road last year. Look for Penn State to fall to 2-8 ATS the past 10 times it was off a Big Ten loss. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA. I backed the Cajuns on Saturday and said to expect a blowout. Laying -21 points, they won 45-0. Georgia State represents a tougher opponent. However, I still believe its a mismatch. The Cajuns are that strong. True, the Panthers played them tough last year. Louisiana only won 34-31. That was at Georgia State though. The Cajuns were also off one of the biggest wins in program history as they had just upset a Top 25 team (Iowa State) on the road, one of the biggest wins in school history. Off that "emotional" victory, the Cajuns were in a tough spot to go on the road. This one sets up much differently though. This time, instead of playing b2b road games, the Cajuns are off a comfortable blowout win, right here at home. Playing on a short week, that will serve them well. On the other hand, the Panthers are off an "emotional" road win against an instate rival. This time, they're the team playing b2b road games. Playing on a short week, in that situation, won't help them. The Cajuns are 7-3 ATS their last 10, as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. With a chance to show the ESPN audience how strong they are, expect the Cajuns to improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. I like how this one sets up for the home team. While the Pistons had last night off, the 76ers were involved in a hard-fought game against the Bulls. That was on the heels of wins against Portland and Atlanta. Off those big wins and now playing their third game in four days, their fourth game in six days, it should be easy for the 76ers to go through the motions against the Pistons. Keep in mind that Philadelphia also has the Knicks on deck, the team which handed them their most recent loss. All the more reason to look past tonight's game. Additionally, it should be mentioned that the 76'ers are still playing at way less than 100%. The absences should catch up with them in this b2b spot. The Pistons already played the 76'ers tough at Philadelphia and they scored an upset the last time the teams met here. Don't be surprised when it happens again. 

I'm playing ATLANTA on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Homefield hasn't meant much in the World Series in recent seasons. It hasn't been that big a deal this year either. The Braves won Game 1 here at Houston, while the Astros won Game 5, at Atlanta. I like the Braves to close things out on the road, here in Game 6. That said, in what could well be another close one, I'm willing to pay extra for the luxury of having an extra +1.5 runs to work with. Yes, we pay a lot for those runs. With these two scrappy teams, both scratching and clawing for every run, a 1-run game is a real possibilty. Yes, the boxscore will show that Fried struggled and he admitted "I'm not happy about it." That said, he had some bad luck work against him which led to one bad inning. He retired 10 straight batters after that and he'll be ready to take that momentum into Tuesday's start. The Braves bullpen had seen a lot of innings and will benefit from having Monday off. The Astros have lost four of Garcia's last five starts. Grab the extra +1.5 runs and expect AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on KC. The Giants sure looked better than the Chiefs last week. With last week's win, they showed they aren't a joke. Yet, the Chiefs are favored for good reason. Kansas City has been an elite team for the past few seasons. After getting embarrassed last week, we'll see the best of the former champs. This is a chance to redeem themselves on National TV and to remind everyone of how good they can be. Indeed, the Giants are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. No strangers to the spotlight, the Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four on Monday night. Winning here, on Monday night, was already going to be difficult enough, if healthy. The Giants are a banged-up team though, which makes things considerably more difficult. The last time that the Chiefs were off a loss, they bounced back with a 31-13 blowout win. After their previous loss, they bounced back with a 12-point win, at Philadelphia. I'm expecting them to pull away for another double-digit win on Monday night. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. I really like how this one sets up for the Hawks. They're at home. (They're 2-0 SU/ATS here on the season, outscoring visiting teams by an average score of 117.5 to 95.5.) They had yesterday off. They have tomorrow off. They're angry after getting blown out at Philadelphia on Saturday. They're also still mad from having lost at Washington, to these same Wizards, on Friday. The Wizards had yesterday off. However, they played a double-OT game on Saturday and this is still their fourth game in six days. The Wizards were fortunate that the Celtics were just 2-of-26 from beyond the arc Saturday night. The revenge-minded Hawks will shoot a lot better than that. They're 49-30-1 ATS here the past couple of seasons. I'm expecting them to pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on the NY JETS. Last week's results are helping to provide us with excellent value. The Bengals beat up on Baltimore. The Jets got pounded by the Patriots. Those scores and the injury to Zach Wilson has led to a double-digit spread. While the Bengals are clearly better than they've been in the past, asking them to lay this many points, in this spot, is asking too much. I also played on the Jets in their last game here. The setup was somewhat similar. The Jets were off a blowout road loss and hosting a quality AFC opponent. In that case, the Jets were hosting the Titans, a team which was off a big win. As you're likely aware, the Titans have since beaten both the Chiefs and the Bills. Yet, the Jets beat them outright. Now, they're back home and getting even more points than they were for that game. Sure, White goes instead of Wilson. He got some playing time last week though and was 20 of 32 for 200+ yards. Coach Saleh said this of White: "He's a very calm man. He's a great communicator, he's got great command of the huddle. He's got great command of the offense. He understands progression reads and how to go through a progression, get the ball where it needs to go. He understands how to slide in the pocket to throw instead of slide in the pocket to run. He doesn't panic." I'm comfortable with him, or Flacco, running the offense. Importantly, I  believe that the Jets are catching Cincinnati at the right time. The Bengals will be playing their third straight road game. That's the only time that they'll do that this season. Off their big win against the hated Ravens, the Bengals could easily be patting themselves on the back a little. Also, they've got instate rival Cleveland on deck. In other words, it should be easy to look past the lowly Jets. While they may have won big last week, the Bengals have seen four of their seven games decided by a field goal. Prior to last week's loss, the Jets had seen two in a row decided by seven or less. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Cavs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. They played a late game at LA last night. They challenged Lebron and co. into the fourth quarter; it was a hard-fought game. The Cavs had a 1-point lead with 8-mins remaining. In the end, it was a potentially demoralizing 113-101 setback. Note that the Cavs are just 22-41 ATS the past few years when off a double-digit loss. During that span, they're also 5-15 ATS after playing their previous three on the road. Off last night's tough loss, they're now playing their third road game in the past four days. They'll face a well-rested Phoenix team which is angry about its slow start. The Suns are 21-13 ATS their last 34, when off an upset loss as a favorite. They beat the Cavs by 16 the last time the teams faced each other. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect another blowout. 

I'm playing on DENVER. As of this writing, Jokic is questionable. Obviously that's a big deal and the line reflects that. While it would obviously be great if he plays, I won't rely on the Nuggets star being in there. Given the setup, I expect the Nuggets to win, with or without him. The Nuggets have had the past couple of days off, which helps. The Mavs, on the other hand, are off a hard fought win last night. They're now playing their third game in the past four days. They've got their own potential injury issues, too. Porzingis missed last night and remains questionable. Doncic continues to lead the way but he's also turning the ball over, quite a lot. He had seven turnovers in last night's game. The Nuggets got upset in their last game here and they hit the road for three after this. They're still 53-23 here the past 2+ seasons and they're also 17-8 (SU) the past 25 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Schedule in their favor, expect the Nuggets to get it done. 

I'm playing on TULSA. I love how this one sets up for the Golden Hurricane. While Tulsa is off a hard-fought close win, Navy is off a hard-fought close loss. This is a young Navy team and they really left it all on the field against a top team in Cincinnati. Having nearly pulled off the monumental upset, (the Midshipmen were 29 point underdogs) only to come up short, will take a toll this week. Playing on the road, on a short-week, doesn't make matters any easier on the Midshipmen. Note that the Midshipmen are winles on the road this season, most recently losing by 18, at Memphis. While Navy plays on a short week, Tulsa is off a bye. The Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS their last seven, when off a bye. They won by 13, at Navy last year. Schedule, venue and setup in their favor, expect an even bigger margin of victory on Friday night. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. Naturally, I respect the Hawks. Young is already a great player and Atlanta has surrounded him with a solid supporting cast. Still, the Hawks are 0-1 on the road and they're dealing with some injuries. Their only previous road game resulted in an outright loss, at Cleveland, as an 8-point favorite. While the Pelicans are without Zion Williamson, they've gotten better each time out. Their first game was a loss here against the 76ers. They played them tough for the first half but got blown out in the second, losing by 20. Next, was a 16-point loss at Chicago. That was followed by a 7-point loss, as they eked out their first cover. Last time out, the Pelicans played their best game and won 107-98, at Minnesota. The Hawks play tomorrow, the Pelicans do not. With the Hawks 0-4 ATS their last four as a road favorite, grab the points with the Pelicans. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Packers have been playing well. However, I feel that this will prove to be a very difficult spot for them. They're off a divisional win and they've got a Thursday showdown - and potential playoff preview - with Arizona, on deck. Additionally, the Packers are dealing with a number of injuries. The only team that GB beat by more than 10 points this season was Detroit. Two wins have come by a field goal or less. Washington has played a very difficult schedule. Four of the Football Team's six games have come against the likes of the Chargers, Bills, Saints and Chiefs. Their only other two games were against the Falcons and the Giants. Washington won both of those games. Having taken on so many elite teams already, the FT isn't going to be intimidated here. While the Pack are certainly tough, Washington is 6-3-1 ATS its last 10 against teams with a winning record. The last three meetings have seen Washington go 2-1. The lone GB victory was by only five points. Expect Washington to give the Pack all they can handle again, with a great shot at the outright upset.

I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. Needless to say, this is a huge game for both teams. Coastal Carolina wants to stay undefeated. Appalachian State wants respect and revenge. It's true that the Mountaineers have a couple of losses. In fact, I successfully played against them in their last game. However, it's also true that both of their losses came on the road. They're 3-0 here at home, 14-2 the past few seasons. Having lost at Conway last year, the Mountaineers are thrilled to get this matchup here at home. They hammered the Chanticleers 56-37 the last meeting here. They're also 4-1 ATS their last five as underdogs. I feel that these teams are quite evenly matched. Yes, the Chanticleers brought back a lot from last year's strong team. The same is true of the Mountaineers though. Speaking of 2020, last year's game had a line of -3, despite Coastal Carolina playing at home. That said, getting points at home is great value. In what should be a good team, I expect AT LEAST a cover for the revenge-minded Mountaineers. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Arizona checks in with an perfect record. The Cardinals have indeed been playing well. Playing at home, the Browns are favored for good reason though. The Browns have only played two home games and they won both by double-digits. The 49'ers gave the Cards all they could handle last week. Arizona was at home and was against a team which was playing without its #1 QB. I had a big play on the 'under' so I was happy that the Cards did play excellent defense. The offense managed only 17 points though. Now, they're on the road against a far more formidable opponent. This will already be the Cards' fourth road game through the first six weeks. That's a very tough schedule. While they've obviously done a great job, I believe it'll catch up to them here. The Browns are already 2-0 ATS when the O/U line was 49.5 or higher. Going back further finds them at 5-2 ATS their last seven in that situation and 10-5 ATS their last 15. While both teams are dealing with some injuries, the cards are also dealing with some Covid issues. Look for the Browns to hand them their first loss, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers haven't been a good bet this year; they're 0-5 ATS thus far. I expect them to finally snap that streak Friday though as I love how this one sets up. First, understand that Clemson has far superior athletes across the board. The Tigers may have struggled to being the post-Lawrence era but they're still extremely talented. The defense is among the best in the country. Clemson bounced back from a loss to win its last game. It wasn't pretty but I like that the Tigers found a way to get the victory. They've since had a bye and are ready to make a statement in front of the national audience. Remember, this is a team and coach with a lot of pride. They don't like hearing all the talk about their reign being over. Note that Clemson is 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) its last six off a bye. While the Tigers are playing with extra rest and preparation time, the Orange play on a short week. They're off their second straight very close loss, too. Those are the type of defeats that take a toll, particularly when a team has suffered two of them in a row. Last time the Tigers came here they won by a score of 41-7. I'm expecting another blowout. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE on Tuesday. These are both solid teams and this should be a good game. I believe that the Rajin' Cajuns are providing outstanding value. Both teams have won the games which they were expected to win. Each is 4-1. Their losses came at Miami and at Texas. So, they were also expected. It's true that the Mountaineers played the Hurricanes closer than the Cajuns played the Longhorns. They still lost (a close one) though. It's also true that the Mountaineers are off the bigger win. That's fine with me though; those results have helped this line climb. The Cajuns still won a road game; I like the fact that they've learned to win the close ones. (Three of their four wins have been by single digits, two by three points or less.) Knowing how to win those close games will serve the Cajuns well in this one. For what it's worth, the last time that they were on this field, the Cajuns crushed Ohio by a score of 49-14. That's a bigger margin of victory than App. State has managed in a game this season. The last five meetings have all been quite close, each decided by 11 or less. After coming out on the wrong side of those games for several seasons in a row, the Cajuns finally broke through with a 3-point win in last year's game. I'm expecting another close one. Note that the line has climbed from its opener, providing additional value. While I believe that the Cajuns have a great shot at the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points

I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. The Colts got on track last week. Their first win under their belts, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game. Despite their 1-3 start, the Colts are very much alive in the AFC South still. Houston and Jacksonville are a combined 1-9. That said, they really need to avoid falling too much further behind the 3-2 Titans. The Ravens beat the Colts by 14 last season. However, a look at the stats shows that the Colts were right there with them. In fact, the Colts had more first downs, more rushing yards and significantly more passing yards. Turnovers were the difference, including a 65-yard fumble recovery TD. The Colts had the lead at halftime though and I believe that they're fully capable of battling the Ravens the entire way tonight. Note that Wentz is getting healthier for the Colts and had a full week of practice. He was 24 of 32 last week with two TDs and zero interceptions. Meanwhile, the defense allowed only 13 first downs and 203 total yards, many of those coming in the fourth quarter. The line has climbed and I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Golden Flashes had some lean years recently. So, many still think of them as a really bad team. The opposite is true of Buffalo. The Bulls have been really strong the past few seasons. So, many have an idea of them being a MAC powerhouse. This year is different though. The Bulls lost a lot of players from last year. Last year's coach left in the spring and a number of players followed him out the door, along with the entire coaching staff. That means that its all new players and new systems. Kent State, on the other hand, is highly experienced. Yet, because the Golden Flashes have played road games at Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland, their stats make them look bad. The Bulls dropped 70 on the Golden Flashes in the last game of last season, setting a number of records along the way. Kent State has been waiting for Saturday's rematch ever since. The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS their last nine against teams with losing records. Expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here, putting up a big number en route to a double-digit win.

I'm playing on FIU. In a game where I expect the Panthers to win outright, getting points is a nice bonus.The Panthers are coming into this game extremely hungry. Butch Davis' Panthers lost in OT to Texas State back on 9/11. It was a hard-fought game that they could have won. Since then, their next three have come on the road. So, it's not surprising that they lost them. Charlotte hasn't won on the road either. Both the 49'ers road games have resulted in double-digit losses. This is the only time in this season's schedule where they'll be playing consecutive road games. The short week figures to favor the home team. Remember, the Panthers brought back 18 players from last year while Charlotte brought only back 13. Note that the 49'ers are banged up in their secondary, an area where they lost some key guys from last year. These teams met here in 2019. The Panthers won 48-23. This one will likely be a lot closer (FIU won each of the previous three by a TD or less including two 1-point wins) but I expect the end result to remain the same. Grab the points. 

I'm playing BOSTON on the run-line. (+1.5 runs.) I really like Boston's chances of winning this one "outright." That said, a very close game won't surprise and having an extra +1.5 runs to work with may prove invaluable. While the Rays had the better record, I like the momentum that the Red Sox bring into this game. They scratched and clawed their way here. Off the comeback win over Washington and then beating Cole in the Wildcard, their confidence is sky high. They're too well-coached to suffer a letdown. They know this matchup provides a great opportunity to grab an early lead in the series. Neither Rodriquez or McClanahan has a very good ERA in their past playoff performances; though those were primarily out of the bullpen. However, a closer look shows that Rodriguez has 11 K's in 10 playoff innings and he's got a 1.20 WHIP. McClanahan, on the other hand, has an ugly 2.31 WHIP in his 4 1/3 previous playoff innings. The Rays are 2-3 in McClanahan's last five starts; he didn't go more than five innings in any of them. They won his last start but that victory came by only one run. Rodriguez was 8-4 (team was 12-6) in 18 road starts. That included a 2-0 record for the Sox in his two starts here at Tampa. Both were quality. One was h2h against McClanahan; Rodriguez tossed six shutout innings en route to a 4-0 win. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover."