Sports Picks & Predictions

I am playing on MINNESOTA. I love the Gophers in this early Sunday afternoon contest for a few key reasons and two of them are that it’s Senior Day and that it’s a must-win situation for Minnesota.  Five seniors will play their final home game on Sunday, where the Gophers typically look like a much better team compared to their play on the road (they are 7-7 ATS at home versus 4-8 ATS at home this season). I’m expecting a crowd that will push the decibel levels in a contest that will be featured on the Big Ten Network, especially considering Minnesota will clinch a spot in the Big Ten tournament with a victory here after Northwestern fell to Iowa on Saturday.   This crowd will be especially hungry for the W against a Penn State squad that beat Minnesota in the first meeting of the season back in January. If the Gophers show up, I really don’t anticipating them having much trouble with the Lions. Penn State has chosen the closing stretch to play its worst basketball of the season and the Nits have now lost six in a row and failed to cover in five of those.  Penn State has been a special kind of bad on the road lately too, failing to score even 60 points in any of its last four road outings. I think the Lions will struggle mightily against a Minnesota squad that ranks fourth in the nation in steals per game (9.8) and fifth in turnover margin (5.0) this season.  10* Breakfast Club

I’m playing on the North Carolina Tar Heels as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

The Tar Heels and Blue Devils add another chapter to college basketball’s best rivalry, with North Carolina out to avenge a 92-90 loss to Duke in Durham last month. The Heels are slim favorites in this important matchup, trying to better its spot in the ACC tournament pecking order.

North Carolina dominated the paint in its previous meeting with Duke, scoring 62 points inside and pulling down 17 offensive rebounds. If it wasn’t for a hot shooting night for Duke. especially beyond the arc, UNC would have walked away with the win in Durham.

The Blue Devils won’t have the Cameron Crazies on their side Saturday. Duke is shooting 37.3 percent from beyond the arc on the road, knocking down seven triples per contests. North Carolina has been stellar at defending the deep ball this season, limiting visitors to just 29 percent shooting from distance in Chapel Hill.

North Carolina has a safety net with its offense and doesn’t depend on those long looks to fall. The Tar Heels will impose their physical play on the Blue Devils, pounding away for 40 minutes and picking up plenty of second-chance looks with their athletic forwards cleaning the glass. North Carolina ranks ninth in the country in offensive rebounds at 12.2 per game.

The Tar Heels out for revenge and their ability to snuff out the Blue Devils' 3-point looks are why I’m playing on North Carolina as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

I’m playing on the Philadelphia 76ers as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

Philadelphia plays host to the Atlanta Hawks, who are coming off a massive win over the Cleveland Cavaliers Friday night. We see major letdown potential from the Hawks in this overnight trip to Philly. And with oddsmakers handing over a truck load of points, this should play out as an easy cover for a Sixers team that has covered in back-to-back games heading into the weekend.

The 76ers fell short against the Utah Jazz Friday, losing 89-83 at home, but did manage to cover the 7.5-point spread. Philadelphia played Atlanta tough in its last meeting, losing 91-85 as a 16-point road underdog and seems to rise to the occasion against the NBA’s elite. It’s coming off solid efforts versus Oklahoma City, Toronto, and even stood toe-to-toe with Golden State last month.

The Hawks have played three straight games against tough opposition and will be looking to catch their breath against the lowly Sixers Saturday. Before the win over Cleveland, Atlanta took down Houston and Miami. The Hawks haven’t been a good bet as big chalk, failing to cover in each of their last four games as double-digit favorites.

The Hawks ripe for a letdown and the Sixers rising to the occasion are why I’m playing on Philadelphia as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I’m playing on the Texas Longhorns as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Longhorns head into the final Big 12 game of the schedule versus Kansas State, firming resting on the NCAA tournament bubble. Texas is coming off a win against a ranked Baylor squad after missing chances to boost its March resume versus Kansas and West Virginia in the previous two games. Now, this final game could either make or break the Horns’ season.

We expect Texas not to take any chances with a dangerous Kansas State squad and leave it all out on the floor. Making the tournament cut could also be the determining factor whether head coach Rick Barnes keeps his job or not. So there is plenty of added motivation to finish Big 12 play with a bang.

The Wildcats are coming off two huge wins, taking down Kansas and Iowa State - setting up a masisve letdown spot Saturday. Kansas State scored 70 points in each of those respective upsets, getting a big boost from the home crowd in Manhattan. However, now KSU must hit the highway where it's struggled mightily this season.

Kansas State is just 1-7 SU on the road in Big 12 play, covering the spread just once in its last five away from home. The Wildcats, who average only 61.1 points as visitors, are just 3-16 SU in true road games the last two years.

The Longhorns’ added motivation and the Wildcats road woes are why I’m playing on Texas as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I’m playing on the New Orleans Pelicans as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

The Pelicans host the Boston Celtics, who are playing some of their better basketball of the season. The Celtics have won four of their last six games, losing to Golden State and Cleveland in that span, and that has altered the spread value for this matchup, opening up opportunity to play on the home side Friday.

New Orleans is also tearing through the schedule, losing just once in its last seven games with a 5-2 ATS record in that span. The Pelicans welcomed back star center Anthony Davis back in their last outing, getting 39 points and 13 rebounds and eight blocks from the former Kentucky standout in an 88-85 victory over Detroit.
 
The Celtics have slowed their pace in the second half of the schedule. Boston was pushing the tempo faster than most teams to start the year but has taken on a more methodical offense lately, which plays in New Orleans' halfcourt sets. The Pelicans defense will have time to set up and funnel the Celtics toward Davis.

Boston is terribly thin up front since losing forward Jared Sullinger to injury. The Celtics were unable to sure up the frontcourt before this matchup with the Pelicans, leaving them coming up short against Davis’ two-way talents. Boston has just Tyler Zeller, Jonas Jerebko and Kelly Olynyk in the middle – none of which can keep pace with New Orleans big man.

The Pelicans' hot play and Davis taking on a thin Celtics frontcourt are why I’m playing on New Orleans as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls as my 10* TNT Main Event Thursday.

The Bulls welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder the United Center Thursday night. Oklahoma City is playing its second game of back-to-back nights, after traveling overnight from home following a matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers Wednesday.

The Thunder could be a little worse for wear in this tough situational spot, getting more than they bargained for against the Sixers. Oklahoma City isn’t playing with a full roster, namely missing star forward Kevin Durant due to a foot injury. It’s depending a lot on Russell Westbrook to pace the offense, and may be running on fumes by the time the Thunder take the court Thursday.

Chicago is also dealing with multiple injuries, losing both Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler. However, the Bulls have been here before when it comes to absorbing key losses. They showed their resiliency in a 97-92 victory over the Washington Wizards Tuesday, getting a combined 33 points from the replacement backcourt of Aaron Brooks and Tony Snell.

The Bulls still present one of the best frontcourts in the NBA, headlined by veteran big man Pau Gasol. His finesse inside is complemented by hard-working center Joakim Noah, who is rounding into form after missing a lot of time due to injuries. That ability to grind out offensive sets inside should make a huge difference against an OKC team that has been pushed around in the paint this season.

The Thunder playing the second stop of back-to-backs and the Bulls’ ability to absorb injuries are why I’m playing on Chicago as my 10* TNT Main Event Thursday.

I’m playing on the Minnesota Golden Gophers as my 10* ESPN Main Event.

The Golden Gophers play host to the No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers Thursday night. Minnesota is coming off a big win over Michigan State, snapping a three-game skid, and looks to build off that victory against another Big Ten powerhouse.

These teams played just two Saturdays ago, with Wisconsin edging Minnesota 63-53 in Madison. The Golden Gophers covered as 15-point road underdogs despite an off night for leading scorer Andre Hollins, who went just 1 for 8 from the field for two points. Minnesota was within one point midway through the first half and cut the lead to eight late in the second before the Badgers shut the door with some big 3-point buckets.

The Gophers were one of just four Big Ten teams that beat the Badgers on the boards, out-rebounding Wisconsin 28-25 including holding it to just five offensive rebounds. Minnesota has picked up its presence on the glass in the last three games and must limit the amount of second-chance looks Wisconsin scoops up Thursday.

Minnesota has had Wisconsin’s number when it comes to covering the spread. The Golden Gophers are an impressive 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Badgers, including a 3-1-1 ATS mark in their last four home stands against Wisconsin.

The Golden Gophers building off their recent win and their ATS success against the Badgers are why I’m playing on Minnesota as my 10* ESPN Main Event Thursday.

I’m playing on the Charlotte Hornets as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.


The Hornets are back home after going 2-2 on a four-game road trip, most recently thumping the Orlando Magic 98-83 Sunday. Outside of an off night versus Boston, Charlotte maintained its defensive prowess during that trip - ranked sixth in defense in the NBA - and will put the locks on a Los Angeles Lakers team opening a three-game road trip in Charlotte Tuesday night.


The Lakers have had some success scoring the basketball in recent games, averaging 105 points over their last five games. However, Los Angeles played four of those games inside the Staples Center and now cross the country for this road stop. The Lakers are scoring only 97.7 points per game on the road and have gone just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 away from La-La Land.


Charlotte is fighting to crack the postseason picture and can’t afford to let opportunities like Tuesday’s game slip away. The Hornets have some revenge fueling them in this matchup after losing to Los Angeles 107-92 in L.A. back in November. However, Kobe Bryant was still on the court then and the Lakers were in much better health than they are now.


The Hornets’ dominating defense and the Lakers’ woes away from home are why I’m playing on Charlotte as my Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.


The Scarlet Knights have dropped 12 straight games and don’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. Rutgers does, however, present some excellent line value hosting the Maryland Terrapins Tuesday night.


The Terps come into this Big Ten battle on a five-game winning streak, including a pair of impressive home victories over Wisconsin and Michigan last week. Maryland is a shoe-in for a ticket to the Big Dance and will likely do some damage in the conference tournament. This could have the Terrapins sitting fat and happy heading to Jersey, where they’re giving a lot of points.


Rutgers covered as a 14-point underdog in a 73-65 loss at Maryland back in January and is coming off a strong effort against Purdue this weekend, falling 92-85 as a 13.5-point pup. The Scarlet Knights throw plenty of size at opponents and boast some versatile talents that can give teams matchup fits. They have the chops to scare some big-name teams, with an outright upset win of Wisconsin earlier this year.


Maryland can do some damage from distance, averaging almost eight 3-pointers per game on 38 percent shooting. Rutgers has checked opponents to just 30.2 percent shooting from beyond the arc at home and without those easy looks from outside, the Terps may not be able to put enough distance between them and the Knights to cover this hefty spread.


The Terrapins ripe for a letdown and the Scarlet Knights tightening up on 3-point shooters are why I’m playing on Rutgers as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Toronto Raptors as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

Toronto is officially pushing the panic button after an embarrassing loss to the New York Knicks – the Raptors' fifth straight defeat. Toronto still holds a comfy lead in the Atlantic Division but is just hanging on to the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, with Chicago and Cleveland breathing down its neck.

Things couldn’t get much worse for the Raptors right now – that is unless they lay another egg when they visit the Philadelphia 76ers Monday night. We’re banking on a big bounce back for Toronto in this game, feeling the urgency for a win.

Philadelphia will be playing the second night of back-to-back games, traveling back home from Indiana overnight Sunday. The 76ers have a hard enough time stopping teams on rest, let alone on double dips. The Sixers have allowed an average of almost 103 points per game in their last five outings.

Toronto has dominated Philadelphia when it comes to paying out at the window. The Raptors have covered the spread in 21 of their last 32 clashes with the 76ers, including two pushes in that span. Toronto is expected to have all-star point guard Kyle Lowry back in the lineup after he rested in the loss to the Knicks.

The Raptors’ desperation and the Sixers’ defense playing on the second night of back-to-back games are why I’m playing on Toronto as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

I’m playing on the Texas Longhorns as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

The Longhorns’ NCAA tournament window is closing. Texas balked at opportunities to boost its March Madness resume with losses to ranked West Virginia and Kansas last week, and this Monday's matchup with Lone Star State rivals, the Baylor Bears, could be the Horns’ final chance to impress the selection committee.

On top of that motivation to secure an at-large bid before the Big 12 tournament tips, Texas could also be playing for head coach Rick Barnes’ job. There is a strong call for the coach to be fired following a disappointing season in Austin. We expect an all-or-nothing effort from the Longhorns at home Monday night.

Baylor is rolling along, winning four straight contests and seven of its last nine Big 12 games. That stretch includes a one-sided win over Texas, knocking off their state enemy at home 83-60. The Longhorns, who will have revenge on their minds in the rematch, shot just 38.6 percent from the field in that loss, including going 5 for 26 from beyond the arc.

Texas is much better team in front of the home faithful, averaging 71.3 points for and allowing just 57.2 points against inside the Frank Erwin Special Events Center. The Longhorns put together one of their best defensive efforts in the loss to the Jayhawks, blocking a school-record 14 shots and limiting KU to 36 percent shooting – including just 1-for-8 shooting from beyond the arc. Texas can build off that performance in this must-win game Monday.

The Longhorns desperate to build their tournament resume and coming off one of their best defensive effort are why I’m playing on Texas as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

I’m playing on the Ohio State Buckeyes as my 10* Main Event Sunday.

The Buckeyes were among the Top 25 programs in the country for a while but a recent skid has dropped them from the national polls and has Ohio State’s NCAA tournament future a little hazy. The Buckeyes still have work to do to avoid having their March Madness bubble burst and can’t afford a poor outing against the Purdue Boilermakers at home Sunday.

Two recent road losses to Michigan State and Michigan, and a road loss to Purdue have Ohio State’s pedigree in questions. The Buckeyes have been able to take care of the weaker Big Ten schools – like their 81-57 blowout of Nebraska last time out – but lack some beef on their resume. This is a revenge spot for OSU, which can erase that 60-58 loss in West Lafayette and give it some momentum heading into the final week of the season and Big Ten tournament.

The Boilermakers throw a lot of size at the Buckeyes, but barely won the battle on the boards in their last game versus Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been strong on the glass in their last three games, limiting opponents to just 7.3 offensive rebounds while collecting an average of 10 offensive boards of their own in that span.

Ohio State has also done a great job of avoiding shot blockers – getting stuffed just 2.6 times per game – and knows it must attack Purdue’s big men and get them in foul trouble to open up this game. The Buckeyes shot just nine free throws in the last meeting with the Boilermakers, but has already seen an uptick in aggressive play, getting to the stripe 22 times in their win over the Cornhuskers.

The Buckeyes solid work on the boards and desperation for a resume win at home are why I’m playing Ohio State as my 10* Main Event Sunday.

I’m playing on the BYU Cougars as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

Brigham Young is one squad no one wants to see make the tournament cut. The Cougars are a live bubble team but lack big-name wins on their NCAA resume. They can fill that gap with a victory over Gonzaga Saturday.

Brigham Young is a lofty road underdog against the projected tournament No. 1, seed but there is serious motivational value with BYU in this do-or-die situation. The Cougars have covered the spread in five straight games while Gonzaga is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven WCC games. The Bulldogs are no longer the mid-major darling and oddsmakers have treated them like an elite program, stacking a pile of points on the line for each of their outings.

The Cougars are the most explosive offensive team in the country, topping the land with 84.4 points per game on 46.8 percent shooting. Brigham Young has two superstars in Tyler Haws and Kyle Collinsworth, as well as boasts four players averaging more than 13 points per game on the year. They’re a tough team to key on, with nearly every starter presenting a scoring threat.

BYU runs one of the faster paces in the country, with 70.4 possessions per 40 minutes. The Bulldogs don’t have those same wheels and rely on their loaded frontcourt to do damage inside and open up the wings for open shooters. The Cougars look to put Gonzaga on its heels and beat those big men down the floor. Gonzaga’s lone loss on the season came against Arizona in overtime, with the Wildcats possessing similar scoring depth on their roster.

The Cougars desperate for a resume win and their explosive offense are why I’m playing on BYU as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

I’m playing on the Phoenix Suns as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

Phoenix opens the doors of the US Airways Center to the defending NBA champion San Antonio Spurs Saturday. The Spurs traveled overnight from Sacramento where they took on the Kings and their up-tempo attack Friday night. The Suns can catch a road weary – and aging - San Antonio side in a tough spot, especially with the way the Spurs have stumbled on their annual “Rodeo Road Trip”.

Heading into Friday night, San Antonio had dropped the first four games of the Western Conference side of this extended nine-game road swing. The Spurs defense, which has limited foes to just 97.5 points per game (ninth in the NBA), has gone soft. They’ve allowed 107.5 points per game in those four losses and face a well-rested Suns squad coming off a statement win in the conference pecking order.

Phoenix handed Oklahoma City a 117-113 loss in overtime Thursday, getting massive efforts from Eric Bledsoe and Markieff Morris, who scored 28 and 29 points respectively against the Thunder. The Suns are ranked third in the league is scoring, putting up 106.3 points per night, and will overwhelm a tired San Antonio side playing the second of back-to-back nights.

The Suns' offense picking up steam and the Spurs' road woes are why I’m playing on Phoenix as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I’m playing on San Diego State as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Aztecs play host to the Boise State Broncos at Viejas Arena Saturday, looking to snuff out Boise State’s NCAA tournament hopes. The Broncos are on the NCAA bubble – the same spot in which they sat last year around this time. Boise State crumbled under the pressure and missed out on the big dance last season and we expect a similar situation on the road against the Mountain West Conference’s top team.

San Diego State has jumped to the top of the conference with a red-hot four-game winning streak, which included wins over programs like Wyoming, Colorado State (two teams on its heels in the standings) and old rival New Mexico. In fact, the Aztecs most recent loss came at the hands of the Broncos, losing 61-46 in Boise in what was SDSU’s worst showing of the season. There is a heated revenge spot here for San Diego State, who won’t be taking BSU lightly.

The Broncos have never defeated SDSU on the road and face an Aztecs defense that doesn’t allow much room when in the role of host. San Diego State is giving up only 47.3 points per home game – lowest in the entire country – and limiting visitors to just 35.6 percent shooting.

The Broncos crumbling under the bubble and the Aztecs out for revenge at home are why I’m playing on San Diego State as my 10* Personal Favorite.

I’m playing on the Toronto Raptors as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

Toronto welcomes the Golden State Warriors to the Air Canada Centre – a far cry from the sun and surf of the Bay Area. The Warriors travel overnight from Cleveland after a massive clash with the Cavaliers Thursday and are in a tough letdown spot against a very opportunistic Toronto club.

The Raptors went 1-3 on their latest road trip, losing the final three games of that trek to Dallas, Houston and New Orleans. Toronto is back home and can’t afford to extend this skid to four games. The Raptors are a tough matchup for the Warriors, running a similar guard-heavy offense that can put up points in a hurry. Toronto is averaging almost 105 points per game – fifth in the NBA.

The Raptors fell to Golden State when they visited the Bay Area in early January. The Warriors shot better than 53 percent from the field in that 126-105 beating, while Toronto coughed the ball up 17 times. Don’t expect a repeat with this non-conference series swinging north of the border. The Raptors boast the eight fewest turnovers at home (13.5) and limit opponents to just 96.9 points per home game – a drastic drop from the 104 points against per game on the road.

Toronto has been beaten up in the fourth quarter during this three-game skid and recognizes it must close out teams in order to snap this funk. The Raptors, who have allowed more than 29 points per fourth quarter in those three losses, will look to take advantage of a Golden State side feeling the effects of the road on the second half of back-to-back nights in the final frame.

The Warriors primed for a letdown and the Raptors hungry for a home win are why I’m playing on Toronto as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

I’m playing on the Indiana Pacers as my 10* Best Bet Friday.

The Pacers play host the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are coming off a massive showdown with the Golden State Warriors Thursday. Cleveland is having to hop a plane and take the court for the second night of back-to-back outings after facing the Warriors' fast and furious pace.

There is tremendous value go to against Cleveland, which is ripe for a letdown. On top of that, Indiana is playing its best basketball of the season, picking up victories in seven of its last 10 games and boasting a 7-3 mark against the spread. A big-name opponent like the Cavs come to town only pumps up the Pacers home line even more, which we’ll gladly take advantage of.

Indiana has seen a spike in scoring during this hot streak, averaging 103 points per game this month - a massive uptick from the Pacers’ season scoring average of just 96.1 points per game. They’ve already knocked off Cleveland this month, serving LeBron & Co. a 103-99 defeat in Ohio on February 3.

On top of that offensive surge, Indiana remains one of the better defensive clubs in the NBA, giving up just under 98 points per game during that 10-game span. The Pacers are even stingier at home, allowing only 96.4 points on 43.4 percent shooting – a big reason why Indiana has covered in four straight home stands and is 5-1 ATS in its last six games versus the Cavaliers inside Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

The Cavaliers ripe for a letdown and the Pacers picking it up on both ends of the floor are why I’m playing on Indiana as my 10* Best Bet Friday.

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns could definitely use some wins to help their fans and bettors forget about having to trade away Goran Dragic. I think one of those wins will come against the Thunder Thursday night.  The Suns have been scoring lately, which hasn't slowed since Brandon Knight joined the team over the weekend from Milwaukee. Phoenix has scored 227 points in the two games since Knight came to town and the Suns are averaging 111 over their last four games.  Unfortunately, that hasn't resulted in wins in any of those games but I don't feel the Thunder will be able to keep up with that kind of pace - not without Kevin Durant, anyway. Durant has missed the last three games with a foot injury and is out indefinitely.  Although the Thunder won and covered all three of those games, they were against the Denvers, Charlottes and Indianas of the world. Phoenix isn't the No. 1 team in the NBA, but the Suns are better than those squads and they are the third-highest scoring team in the NBA.  Knight becomes the third former Kentucky player on the Suns roster to go along with Eric Bledsoe and Archie Goodwin. I think he'll be good for chemistry once this team finds some on the court and the Suns have a great starting backcourt with Bledsoe and Knight.  I feel this is too many points for the Durant-less Thunder to have to give away on the road, especially against a somewhat desperate Suns team that is going to get more comfortable every game with its new teammates. 10* TNT Main Event

I am playing on TENNESSEE. The Vols may look like a weakening team with three straight losses coming into this game, but I think you have to look at the competition they've faced and realize this is a great spot to play on them.  The Vols lost to three of the top five teams in the SEC heading into this matchup and now they face the so-so Vols, who are just 5-9 in conference play this season. I think they'll bounce back against their state rivals on home court and will be fully revitalized after the tough stretch of schedule.  Tennessee is playing its first weekday SEC game on a Thursday this season. Every other weekday game has been on a Tuesday or Wednesday for them in conference play and coach Donnie Tyndall took full advantage by giving his team two full days off before returning to practice on Tuesday.  The Vols needed the rest and returned to have a great practice on Tuesday and I expect them to come back and sweep the season series with Vandy. Tennessee won the first meeting 76-73 in OT, which was actually the Vols' last win.  Four players finished in double figures for the Vols and Josh Richardson annihilated Vandy with 27 points. I think we'll see a similar story again on Thursday from a fully recharged Vols squad. 10* ESPN Main Event

I am playing on the BUCKS. I think Milwaukee finally covers its first spread as a new-look team since shipping out leading scorer Brandon Knight three games ago.

Nevermind the fact the Sixers have the most road losses in the NBA with 24 this season. Or the fact the Bucks have won and covered the last four meetings with them.

Those are nice-to-haves but the Bucks are starting to find a little more comfort with their new teammates and a big reason I like Milwaukee to win handily against the Sixers is turnovers. The Bucks have been shooting themselves in the foot lately with bad turnovers, including 24 against the Hawks two games ago.

Why that could be a positive here is that I don’t think Milwaukee will be as penalized by any turnovers it makes Wednesday night against the Sixers because the Sixers cough the ball up more than anyone in the NBA at an average of 18.5 times per game. 

The Bucks may even get a chance to show off new point guard Michael Carter-Williams, who is expected to play after missing his first three games with his new team with a toe injury. Carter-Williams is a big, do-everything kind of point guard and I think he can get this Bucks offense rolling again after they failed to reach 90 points in any of the three games since they traded Knight.

Milwaukee has only lost three games in a row once this season, which was in early December. I don’t anticipate that pattern repeating itself Wednesday against a Sixers team that has lost its last 10 road outings. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on the ROCKETS. Houston has won its last two games by an average of 16.5 points, taking their backers to the ticket window to collect both times. I like them to continue their moneymaking efforts in a revenge situation at home against the Clippers tonight.  The Clippers have won and covered in six straight meetings against Houston which includes two meetings this season. League-leading scorer, James Harden, had a combined 25 points in those two games in what were two of his worst shooting performances of the season and I think we’ll see him a little extra motivated to correct that tonight.  Harden is a wrecking ball right now and has been a triple-double threat in just about every game he's played lately. He picked up his second triple double of the season against the Timberwolves last game with 31 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. I think he’ll have an absolutely huge game against the Clippers tonight and lead Houston to the win and cover.  The Rockets are on fire at home where they've covered six of their last seven games and have covered their last four against the spread there against winning road teams.  Houston is one of the few teams in the NBA that can keep pace with the Clippers, with both teams ranking in the top five in the league in scoring. The Rockets love to rain 3-pointers with an NBA record 40 games with at least 30 3-point attempts this season. The Clippers don't exactly defend the three-ball well, allowing opponents to shoot 34.4 percent from downtown this season and 36.2 percent on the road. 10* ESPN Main Event

I am playing on the KNICKS. The Knicks may have lost seven games in a row but they are right where they want to be on Wednesday: anywhere but MSG.

When you look at the numbers, New York is actually a better team on the road than at home and it's not much wonder. It can wear on a team, taking the abuse from fans, media - and oh yeah, Phil Jackson - while they stink up the Big Apple.  

Jackson was taking rips on Twitter about his team after it got humiliated on home court by the Cavs. The Zen Master said the Knicks were giving the basketball gods heartburn after losing by 18.

Well, New York can thank the basketball gods for road games. The Knicks are just 3-23 straight up on the road this season but are 12-12-2 against the spread. Compare that to 9-19 against the number at home and you can see the difference in value here.

As odd as it is, the Knicks shoot better on the road from 2-point range, 3-point range and on free throws than they do overall this season. Boston, meanwhile, is just 13-14 ATS at home and 17-10 ATS on the road. The Celtics apparently don't like playing at home any more than the Knicks do.

I think we'll see a big response from New York Wednesday night if the team has any pride left at all. The road team has actually won both meetings this year between these two squads and the Celtics have sloppily allowed at least 109 points in each of their last three games. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on UCONN. I feel the Huskies are getting a great number from oddsmakers here and it's because UConn has lost and failed to cover in six of its last seven games on the road. 

Why that makes this a great spot is because the two most recent road losses came against good teams in two of the toughest places to pull off a road win in college hoops right now - Memphis and SMU. They were tough losses and the truth is that the Huskies are playing their best basketball of the season right now with four wins in their last six games overall.

Six-foot-seven shooting guard Daniel Hamilton is playing his best and most consistent basketball of the season and was very close to pulling off triple-doubles in each of his last two games. UConn is giving him the ball more on offense because he can shoot from anywhere but also loves to dish and rebound. It's opened up the floor and I feel the Huskies are playing their best team ball of the year.

UConn isn't a great bet this year overall at 8-15 against the spread but another reason I like this play is most bettors don't realize the Huskies are a much better bet on the road than at home. They are just 2-7 against the spread at home and 6-8 ATS on the road. 

It may not sound like much, but I think the way the Huskies are playing right now they are just a much better team than ECU and oddsmakers are giving them a generously small number to cover. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the West Virginia Mountaineers as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.

West Virginia has a ton of momentum heading into the home stretch of the Big 12 schedule, taking a win over Kansas and, most recently, grabbing a huge road victory over Oklahoma State in Stillwater. The Mountaineers can continue to puff up their NCAA resume and gain ground before the conference tournament with a win over Texas Tuesday.

The Mountaineers won’t be looking past the Longhorns after those impressive victories. Texas has a victory over WVU already this season, smashing West Virginia 77-50 in Austin back on January 17 – the Horns' lone win over a Top 50 RPI team. This is a big revenge spot for the Mountaineers, especially with a coach like Bob Huggins who will use everything he can to fuel his players’ fire.

West Virginia shot a dismal 24 percent from the field in that loss to Texas, including a 6-for-20 performance from beyond the arc. It was an ugly game for both programs, with a total of 36 turnovers. Needless to say, WVU will have a much sharper game at home where it averages 76.4 points per game.

The Mountaineers will look to overwhelm the Horns’ bigger lineup with their frantic pace that averages 72.2 possessions per game. West Virginia will beat the Texas 2-3 zone back before it can set up and press on defense, getting in the face of the Texas backcourt. The Longhorns depend on the size up front to keep them in games but WVU’s quickness in transition will erase that edge.

The Mountaineers out for revenge and ready to run the Longhorns out of the gym are why I’m playing on West Virginia as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns love beating up on the Celtics at any time but I especially like them here where they catch the C's on back-to-back nights after Boston went to OT with the Lakers last night. 

Phoenix has covered the spread in eight of the last 10 meetings with the Celtics and I am thinking the Suns face the Celtics on some tired legs tonight. Boston's top six players played at least 30 minutes last night and four of those players played at least 35 minutes. Boston lost 118-111 and played some terrible defense, allowing the Lakers to shoot 51.2% from the field and 38.9% from long range. 

That's two straight games where Boston has lost and failed to cover in games where both teams scored more than 100 points, which is exactly where I expect Phoenix to try to push Boston Monday night. 

Phoenix has shot at least 50 percent from the floor in 18 games this season, which ranks second in the NBA. The Suns are also the third highest scoring team in the NBA with 106 points per game and I think we’ll see them push the pace tonight. Brandon Knight makes his second appearance at point guard for Phoenix and I feel he could be a fantastic addition in the desert. 

Knight is shooting 40.9 percent from 3-point range this season, which is an added threat that should help spread the floor for Phoenix and I believe will help them score even more. Knight doesn't mind leading the fast break either with 5.4 assists per game and is a steal machine who can score in transition. 

I expect Knight to see more minutes tonight against Boston than the 24 he saw in his debut for the Suns and I think he'll spark them to a much needed win and cover. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on ST. JOHN'S. I like the Johnnies to claim their second win in nine days against the Musketeers on home court at MSG in a big TV game on FOX Sports 1.

Xavier coach Chris Mack called the Red Storm "the most athletic team" in the Big East and he might just be right. St. John's has four players who average at least 13 points per game and D'Angelo Harrison is one of the most athletic in the league.

Harrison averages 18.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and can shoot from everywhere, not to mention can play some defense too. Harrison scored 18 against the Musketeers in the last meeting (which is Xavier's only loss in its last five games) but the Johnnies' Sir'Dominic Painter provided even bigger problems.

Painter racked up 24 points on 9-of-10 field goal shooting and was a beast on defense with four steals and two blocks.

Xavier struggled with that inside-outside threat from St. John's and also the depth problem. Xavier likes to be able to beat teams with its own depth where scoring is balanced and seven players average at least six points. Against most squads in the Big East, that's a tough challenge to overcome over the course of a full game, but not so much for St. John's.

The Red Storm have won four of their last five games and are starting to round into their best form of the season as tournament time draws near. I don't think oddsmakers set this tiny spread high enough, especially on home court where St. John's tends to play tougher defense. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Connecticut Huskies as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

The Huskies are desperate for a win after dropping back-to-back road games to Memphis and Southern Methodist. Connecticut will take that frustration out on Tulane Sunday, matching up with a Green Wave program that has just one victory in its last seven outings, including a 62-53 loss to UConn at home on February 7.

Tulane stunned Cincinnati last weekend then promptly suffered a letdown against Central Florida this week, falling 69-55 as a 7-point home favorite. The Green Wave don’t pack much of a scoring punch, averaging just 64.8 points per game on the season and consistently playing below that bar during conference play, being held to 55 points or less in seven straight contests.

The Huskies aren’t the most explosive team on offense either but do have the horses to run up the score, especially with the way Daniel Hamilton is emerging as a scoring threat. The UConn freshman had 25 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists in the loss to Memphis. Hamilton - a 6-foot-7 guard - is a tough matchup for even a good defense and should give Tulane fits as he blossoms into an elite talent.

Storrs is always a tough place to play – regardless of how good or bad UConn is. The Huskies will have a decisive home-court edge, allowing only 55.4 points per home game (almost 10 points fewer than on the road) and forcing foes to shoot just 36.8 percent in those games.

The Huskies hungry for a win at home and the Green Wave’s miserable offensive outings are why I’m playing on Connecticut as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on the Milwaukee Bucks as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

The wheels are coming off the Atlanta Hawks' red-hot run, with the NBA All-Star break disrupting the team’s momentum into the second half of the season. Atlanta fell 89-88 to the Boston Celtics before the break and was thumped by the Toronto Raptors, 105-80, in its first game back Friday night. The Hawks have come back to earth and there is value to be had fading the Eastern Conference’s top team.

The Milwaukee Bucks are the perfect team to kick Atlanta when it’s down. The Bucks have won four straight contests – picking up where they left off with a victory against Denver Friday – and are an impressive 9-1 in their last 10 overall. Milwaukee’s brand of smothering defense will attack the Hawks' offensive issues and avenge a 90-85 loss to Atlanta in their most recent tangle on Dec. 27. The Bucks beat the Hawks the day before that loss in the opening game of a home-and-home set.

The Bucks are giving up just under 97 points per game on the year – ranked third in the NBA – and have limited opponents to just 42.4 percent shooting at home, including a 33.3 percent clip from beyond the arc. That comes in handy against a 3-point-dependent Hawks offense that can’t seem to find its stroke from outside.

Atlanta is just 15 for 67 from outside in the last two games – 22.3 percent shooting for a team that sits second in the league from distance (38.5 percent) and knocks down 9.9 3-pointers a night.

The Hawks’ ice-cold shooting and the Bucks’ defense taking advantage of a reeling Eastern rival are why I’m playing on Milwaukee as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the St. Mary’s Gaels as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

The Gaels welcome the rival Gonzaga Bulldogs to McKeon Pavilion in Moraga for a game that is always circled for the Gaels. These clashes with Gonzaga often dictate the pecking order in the West Coast Conference and can be the difference between making the cut and getting snubbed on Selection Sunday for St. Mary’s. There is no bigger game than hosting the Zags for SMC.

The Gaels have plenty to prove Saturday after getting rolled by the Bulldogs in their first meeting of the season. St. Mary’s was trumped 68-47, shooting a dismal 36 percent from the field, including a 2-for-15 performance from beyond the arc. We expect a much different outcome from the Gaels this time around, averaging nearly 11 points more at home than compared to the road.

Gonzaga has wobbled at bit at the top of the WCC and has covered just once in its last five conference games. The Bulldogs are on track for a No. 1 seed in the tournament - if they can avoid a conference loss – and the market is not giving the Zags any wiggle room when it comes to their nightly spreads. Gonzaga is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six conference road stops while the Gaels have covered in seven of their last eight WCC contests.

The Gaels' big-game motivation and the Bulldogs’ troubles covering on the road are why I’m playing on St. Mary’s as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I’m playing on the Houston Rockets as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Rockets are back home looking to rebound from a flat outing against the Dallas Mavericks in their first game back from the All-Star break. Houston opens the doors of the Toyota Center to the Toronto Raptors, who are ripe for a letdown spot after clashing with the Atlanta Hawks Friday night. Toronto blasted the NBA’s top team 105-80 and now travels overnight to Texas for this non-conference clash.

The Raptors rolled Atlanta, checking the Hawks for just 33 percent shooting including an 8-for-38 night beyond the arc. Toronto had the hot hand from outside in that win, knocking down 13 of its 30 shots from downtown. But the Raptors will be playing with fire if they want to get into a shootout with the Rockets' sharp shooters.

Heading into Friday’s game, Houston topped the NBA in 3-pointers made – 11.8 per game – and percentage of points from 3-pointers (34.3 percent). The Rockets have a much more perimeter orientated offense with Dwight Howard on the shelf until March, and aren’t afraid to get into a 3-point war with opponents.

On the defensive side, the Raptors are a favorable matchup for the Rockets at this point. Toronto doesn’t present a dominant big man like most Western Conference foes, and not having Howard down low isn’t as exposed as it would be against a conference rival. The Rockets have a bevy of solid on-the-ball defenders – Patrick Beverly, Trevor Ariza, Corey Brewer – and will challenge the Raptors’ drive-and-dish offense.

The Rockets' ability to knock down the 3-pointer and defend the ball and the Raptors ripe for a letdown are why I’m playing on Houston as my 10* Personal Favorite.

I’m playing on the Texas Longhorns as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Longhorns host the Iowa State Cyclones in a Big 12 battle to cap off Rivalry Week. Texas is eager to get back on the court and erase a bad loss at Oklahoma earlier this week, allowing the Sooners to put up 71 points on the Horns’ 20th-ranked defense. We expect a rededication to stopping the basketball from Rick Barnes’ kids Saturday.

Iowa State finally picked up a conference road win with a challenging victory in Stillwater over the Oklahoma State Cowboys this week. The Cyclones, however, are a much different squad when they hit the highway, averaging just 61.8 points as visitors. That’s a big drop off in production compared to ISU’s scoring average of 73.5 points per game at home. Texas’ tight defense will look to exploit that inability to produce in enemy territory.

The Longhorns aren’t lost on how a win over Iowa State would look on their NCAA resume. Texas can drastically improve its seeding in the national tournament and send a statement through the Big 12 with a victory at home Saturday.

The Horns have seen an improvement on offense in recent games and played one of their best scoring contests in an 89-86 loss in Ames on January 26. They’re generating more scoring chances through their playbook, rather than relying on their dominance on the boards and second-chance looks. Iowa State is one of the softer defenses in the Big 12 and can find itself lost if unable to simply overwhelm opponents with offense.

The Cyclones' issues away from home and the Longhorns’ defense ready to rebound are why I’m playing on Texas as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on the CLIPPERS. I think Los Angeles is a team that will benefit from the All-Star break and come out strong at home against a Spurs team that sits just a half-game behind the Clippers in the playoff standings.

Some may not think a 35-19 team needs a break, but the Clips have had an up and down season where many feel they haven't come close to reaching their full potential yet.

I think we'll see a rejuvenated squad that had a chance to focus on defensive woes this week in practice and had a chance to escape the spotlight that has burned brightly from the critics to this point. I believe we'll see them topple a Spurs team that has to trek to the road again after the break in the midst of their annual rodeo road trip.

The Clippers were just starting to adjust to life without Blake Griffin before the break, who won't return until at least March after elbow surgery from a staph infection. L.A. lost its first three games without Griffin but won and covered the next two just before the break, thanks to some better defensive play and DeAndre Jordan.

The Clippers held two straight foes to under 100 points for a change and Jordan piled up 46 points and 47 rebounds in the two games. He now has three 20-20 performances in the last six contests.

I think Jordan provides some problems for the Spurs, who will obviously have to key on him. If he can't score down low, there should be some openings on the perimeter, which has been a sore spot for San Antonio lately.

The Spurs are allowing opponents to shoot 39.1 percent from 3-point land over their past five games and I think that could be a big mismatch opportunity for the Clippers. It's also nice to know the Spurs are 0-4 ATS their last four against teams with a .600 or better record at home.

I am playing on MEMPHIS. These two teams are tied for fifth in the AAC and the top five teams get a bye in the conference tournament, so this game may have a little added intensity to it.

I love that Memphis is at home at the FedEx Forum, which could be the biggest crowd UConn has played in front of all season. That's not exactly what the Huskies need right now because the road hasn't been kind to them, where they've failed to cover in four of their last five tries. Some were questioning whether the crowd got to them Saturday night in Dallas at SMU, where UConn got waxed 73-55 and seemed to soften up as the game went on.

The news gets better for this play because the Tigers are actually the best home team in college hoops since 2004-05 with 188 wins and just 25 losses. Memphis is 7-5 against the number at home this year compared to 3-7 on the road and pretty much all the numbers that matter are better for Memphis at home compared to overall this season.

For whatever it's worth, the Tigers are also 4-0 at home against defending national champions, which most recently includes a win over Louisville last year, who won the championship in 2013.

Memphis might have the player with the hottest hand on Thursday also with Shaq Goodwin. Goodwin is averaging 13.8 points and 12.8 boards over his last four games. He's picking up the slack for team leading scorer Austin Nchols, who is out with a sprained ankle.

Nichols is questionable Thursday night but if he does end up playing, I love Memphis even more here. If he doesn't play, I still like the Tigers on home court against a UConn squad that has been a little timid on the road lately. 10* ESPN Main Event

I am playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. I think we will see a very inspired, very desperate Colonials squad Wednesday night that will give Davidson one of its best efforts of the season.

George Washington badly needs some decent wins in order to boost its NCAA tournament chances, but it can also climb its way up the A 10 standings with a strong finish. A win over Davidson would be a great start as Davidson sits just one game above GW in the conference and the Colonials, despite being in sixth place, sit just two games out of first.

I think George Washington will bounce back with some grit and intensity after having a 12-game home winning streak snapped over the weekend against VCU. I believe the Colonials' tough defense will prevail against a high flying Davidson team that has a tendency to try to simply out-score opponents and as a result can get soft on defense.

GW ranks second in the conference in 2-point percentage defense and allows just 62.8 points at home. I expect Patricio Garino to have a big game as one of just two players in the A 10 who ranks in the top 20 in the league in scoring, rebounding, steals, field goal shooting and free throw percentage.

A sloppy free-throw percentage is something that has hurt the Colonials in recent games but I think those types of issues are easy ones to clean up in practice and I expect to see improvement there Wednesday night.

Davidson has allowed at least 69 points in its last four road games and I think they'll struggle against a GW squad that will grind this game down to a slower pace. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the New Mexico Lobos as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

New Mexico holds home court against the No. 25 San Diego State Aztecs, trying to snap a four-game losing skid Tuesday night. The Lobos’ losing ways have puffed this line up and given solid value to a tough home team hungry for a victory.

Three of those last four losses have come away from The Pit, one of the most notorious venues in college basketball. The Lobos are a different team at home, especially when it comes to defending the basketball. They’re giving up just 55.5 points per game as hosts – compared to 62.2 on the road – and limiting opponents to 36.6 percent shooting in those home stands.

San Diego State could be ripe for a letdown in this game. The Aztecs toppled Wyoming and Colorado State, two teams chasing them in the MWC standings last week. They’re just 2-6 ATS away from home and haven’t been able to find the same defensive edge when taking the role of the visitors. San Diego State limits foes to a mere 47.3 points per home game but has watched the number balloon to 62.2 point on the road.

This is a very prideful New Mexico program that wants to prove it is still one of the gatekeepers in the Mountain West Conference. With the Lobos likely not making the NCAA cut, spoiling the party for the Aztecs is plenty of motivation for Craig Neal and his kids.

The Lobos' toughness at home and the Aztecs' defensive troubles on the road are why I’m playing on New Mexico as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Georgetown Hoyas as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

The Hoyas look to lay some lumber on the St. John’s Red Storm at home, leaning on their size and physical play in the paint – on offense and defense – Tuesday night. Georgetown is a tall task for the Johnnies, exploiting some size mismatches with its methodical Princeton offense.

The Hoyas can put the breaks on an up-tempo athletic Red Storm squad, which doesn’t have the same height among its key contributors. St. John’s tallest players hardly see the floor, outside of 6-foot-10 center Chris Obekpa, and the Red Storm don’t have the depth to try and match the Hoyas’ big men.

St. John’s only runs about eight deep into the rotation while Georgetown’s phenomenal freshmen have allowed John Thompson III to go way down his bench and throw multiple looks at opponents. The Hoyas have seven players scoring 5.5 points or more and nine players picking up over 13 minutes of playing time per game.

The Hoyas aren’t giving away an easy looks on defense, especially inside the key. They average almost five blocks per game and have some sizable defenders on the perimeter. Georgetown is holding opponents to 38.3 percent shooting for 62.3 points per home game, and faces a Johnnies team that relies on turning the game into a track meet.

St. John’s won’t find that pace in the Verizon Center. St. John’s may have won three straight games – averaging almost 83 points in that span – but those wins came against some bottom-tier Big East foes.

The Hoyas’ size and depth and the Red Storm’s smaller, shorter rotation are why I’m playing on Georgetown as my 10*Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Virginia Cavaliers as my 10* Main Event Monday.

The Cavaliers are trying to hold on to their spot atop the ACC and had a scare in their last outing versus Wake Forest. Virginia escaped with a one-point victory over the Demon Deacons Saturday, which should serve as a wake-up call for Tony Bennett’s kids heading into this matchup the with the Pittsburgh Panthers Monday.

The Cavaliers defense was coming off two very impressive performances, holding both NC State and Louisville to 47 points, before the near loss to Wake Forest. Virginia is still the top ranked defense in the country, allowing only 50.9 points per game, however it watched Wake Forest knocked down 10 of 24 looks from beyond the arc this past weekend.

Pitt depends on its offense to put distance between opponents. The Panthers are coming off an 89-point effort in a win over North Carolina and are averaging 75.2 points per game in their last five outings. The Panthers have enjoyed four wins in those five games with that lone blemish coming at Louisville. Pitt is just 1-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS away from home, watching its offensive production dip to 64.1 points per game in those situations.

The Cavaliers looking to return to form on defense and the Panthers’ road woes are why I’m playing on Virginia as my 10* Main Event Monday.

I’m playing on the Quinnipiac Bobcats as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

Quinnipiac plays host to the MAAC-leading Iona Gaels, who find themselves in a tough stretch of schedule Sunday. The Gaels are playing their third straight road game which so happens to be their third game in five days. We’re getting great value with the Bobcats program riding a three-game winning streak into this massive home stand.

Quinnipiac played Iona tough in their first meeting, losing 81-73 and covering as a 9.5-point road underdog in New Rochelle, and have revenge on their minds heading into the weekend. The Bobcats are playing much stiffer on defense since that first encounter, giving up just 60 points per game over that three-game win streak and locking opponents to just 37 percent shooting.

The Gaels lean on their high-octane offense to overwhelm opponents. However, with this being their third game in five days – and all of those contests coming in enemy territory – Iona may not have the same pop on offense. The Gaels scored 72 and 70 points in the first two road games, well below their season scoring average of 81.9 points per game.

The Bobcats riding momentum into this revenge spot at home and the Gaels running on fumes during this tough road stretch are why I’m playing on Quinnipiac as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the Mississippi Rebels as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

Ole Miss could be the hottest team in the country, reeling off six straight wins including a thrilling victory over the Florida Gators in Gainesville Thursday. The Rebels are outscoring opponents by 7.5 points in that span, and have covered the spread in all but one of those contests.

Ole Miss would usually fit the mold of a letdown team following that win in Florida, however, the SEC won’t let the Rebels take it easy, welcoming a ranked Arkansas team to Oxford Saturday night. Mississippi continues to hold solid betting value and we’re expecting another strong performance from Andy Kennedy’s kids.

The Rebels play a tough physical game and like to push the tempo, leaning on a deep rotation to keep the offense from suffering a letdown. Not one player logs more than 29 minutes a game and Ole Miss boasts 10 players enjoying at least 10 minutes of court time. Mississippi has one of the most explosive backcourts in the country, with Stefan Moody, Jarvis Summers, and LaDarius White combining for more than 40 points per game.

Arkansas has earned its national ranking, winning three in a row and six of its last seven outings. The Razorbacks can also put the points on the board, topping the SEC with an average of 80.2 points per game. However, the Hogs have been exposed on defense against stronger scoring teams, like Ole Miss. The Rebels knocked off Arkansas 96-82 in Fayetteville back in January, shooting better than 56 percent from the field.

The Rebels’ momentum and deep scoring attack as well as the Razorbacks’ defensive weakness are why I’m playing on Mississippi as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on VALPARAISO. There is a reason Valpo is tops in the Horizon League and it is the Crusaders’ amazing depth.

Three players average double figures per game and five more average at least five points per game, while all eight of those players average at least 2.2 rebounds. Valpo just keeps coming at you for 40 minutes until you can’t keep up any more – especially when it’s a low spread like the one we’re seeing Friday night.

The Crusaders are 5-1 against the spread this season when the number is set at 4.5 or lower in their games, whether as a dog or a favorite. They are coming off an impressive performance against Oakland where six players finished in double figures, though they failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites.

Big spreads have really been the biggest problem for Valpo. The team has won nine of its last 10 games but only covered six of those spreads because numbers started getting more inflated the more the wins kept coming. I think we’ll see a cover here Friday night with a spread that opened at a small number that’s a little more comfortable.

The Crusaders can also play some D where they rank 51st nationally in scoring defense and 19th in field goal percentage defense. They’re also 11-1 straight up on home court and 6-2 against the spread against winning teams and I have a feeling they’ll put on a big performance for this nationally televised game on ESPN2. 10* Main Event

I am playing on CHICAGO. I think the Bulls catch the Cavs in a prime letdown spot here that is way too good to pass up making a play on.

The Cavs host LeBron's old team, Miami, Wednesday night and I fully expect all of Cleveland's energy and focus to be poured into that game as far as their week's schedule goes. The Heat beat the Cavs in their first meeting of the season and that sent Cleveland into a 2-10 train wreck of a losing skid and you know James has been salivating to face them again - especially considering the Cavs are red hot right now after winning 13 of their last 14 heading into Wednesday's game.

I think Cleveland's mind will still be on the night before by the time they roll into Chicago on Thursday and if it's not on that, it will be on the All-Star break ahead. Kyrie Irving and LeBron are set to jettison off to New York for the game while the rest of the team has visions of some down time.

I believe that adds up to a perfect spot for the Bulls, who will be at home and are likely looking for a little payback against the Cavs. They lost and failed to cover in both meetings with Cleveland this year and I expect them to give a big effort here in what is the only NBA game on the slate for the evening.

Chicago has a tendency to play to the level of its competition this season too, and I like the fact the Bulls are 5-1 against the spread against the last six winning teams they've faced. 10* Main Event

I am playing on UCONN. The Huskies have won four straight home games and if you're wondering why they managed to cover only one of those contests, it's simply because oddsmakers slapped them with too much chalk.

UConn failed to cover loaded spreads of 14, 14 and 16.5 in their three most recent home wins and I like the fact they have a small number to contend with Thursday night. While it's true they are playing one of the two best teams in the conference, UConn's overall numbers matchup almost identically when it comes to shooting and defending shots, but the Huskies hold a clear edge at home.

UConn turns into a bit of a defensive powerhouse in Hartford, where the Huskies are holding opponents to just 56.4 points per game and 37.3 percent field goal shooting. The Huskies didn't allow more than 60 points in any of those four recent home wins and they've allowed just 53 and 52 points in their last two games, both wins.

I think we'll see a much different Huskies team Thursday than what we saw against Tulsa in the first meeting of the season in January when the Hurrican won 66-58 as 1-point dogs.

UConn guard Ryan Boatright said "we played a horrible game" this week in reference to Tulsa and I think this team is motivated for revenge. It will help that Boatright, the Huskies' leading scorer, is scorching hot right now and is averaging 23.3 points over his last six games. 10* Main Event

I am playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. The Aztecs are coming off their worst loss in three seasons and 107 games ago after getting pummeled by 15 points at Boise State on Sunday.

Some would say that's a reason to fade the Aztecs but seeing as how San Diego State is back at home and playing the team with whom they are tied atop the Mountain West Conference, I think that loss will be a huge motivator and a key factor in helping them cover on Wednesday.

The Aztecs were simply flat and couldn't find their shot against Boise State - maybe because they were peeking ahead to Wednesday's game. Now I believe they'll be much more honed in and will show off their stifling defense, which ranks third in the country in points against per game (53.8).

San Diego State also ranks 15th in the country in field-goal percentage defense and the scary part for opponents is that the Aztecs get even more suffocating at home. The under has cashed in all seven San Diego State home games that featured a posted total and it’s no wonder. The Aztecs allow just 46.5 points at home while holding opponents to 35.2 percent shooting on 2-pointers and 25.1 percent shooting on 3-pointers. Wow.

It won't help Wyoming's cause that its top scorer, forward Larry Nance Jr., was diagnosed with mono a few days ago. He's listed as day-to-day and even if he does play, who knows how much energy he'll have. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. I think we are watching the Thunder start to come into their own finally this season and they catch Memphis at a good time on Wednesday at home.

The Thunder have won four of their last five games and have covered three of their last four outings, including two straight wins in which they piled up a combined 255 points while covering those spreads by 20 points put together.

They'll play a Memphis squad whom they'd like to get a little revenge against after going 0-2 against the Grizzlies this season and Memphis could be in a bit of a letdown spot after handling the NBA's best team, Atlanta, last game.

I think the Grizzlies are in for a bit of a rude awakening against a sizzling hot Kevin Durant, who hasn't been held to fewer than 27 points in his last three games and he scored 40 last game against Denver. Durant also showed some signs of nastiness and looked like a guy who wants to lead his team into the playoffs. He got a technical foul for knocking Kenneth Faried to the floor and has been more verbal in games and on the bench.

Russell Westbrook is even hotter than Durant right now and when those two guys are on fire, it's hard not to love a play on OKC. Westbrook has been a triple double threat in each of his past six games and has scored at least 40 points in three of his last seven.

Those are scary numbers if you're Memphis and it gets even better. OKC is 8-4 against the spread at home against winning teams, which is by far the team's best ATS spot this season. The Thunder are also 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on PHOENIX. The NBA is abuzz with Suns talk that Phoenix would rather not hear about after Sunday's game -- the Suns have lost on an astounding four buzzer beaters this season, the most in the league since the Jazz in 2006-07.

I think that will serve as extra motivation for the Suns Tuesday night considering Houston was one of the four teams that beat them on a last-second shot when they met in January. That was the fourth straight win and cover for the Rockets over the Suns and I think we'll see a fired up Suns squad Tuesday at home.

Phoenix should be helped by the return of team leading scorer Eric Bledsoe, who missed Sunday's buzzer-beating loss against Sacramento so he could be with his wife for the birth of their first child. I don't have any hard stats on this one, but it's not uncommon for a new dad to play like a man on fire in his next game after the birth of his kid and I think Bledsoe will be jacked up for Tuesday's tilt.

The Suns haven't been scoring like their usual selves lately but they still rank fifth in the NBA with 105.7 points per game and six players are averaging in double figures. I think they'll do what it takes to slow Houston's James Harden just enough and their edge in depth and energy level will help them pull out the win from there. 10* Main Event

I am playing on SETON HALL. I really like Seton Hall here for a number of reasons Tuesday night, not least of which is the Pirates have home court edge at the Prudential Center for this nationally televised battle on FOX Sports 1.

The Hall is 8-3 against the spread on home court this season while a recently stumbling Hoyas squad is 4-5-1 away from home court this season.

Georgetown is coming off two losses and dropped spreads and an absolutely horrendous 18-of-60 shooting performance in a loss to Nova where the Hoyas couldn't cover even with 9.5 points to work with.

Even though the Pirates have lost two in a row themselves, this is not the team GU wants to see right now. Seton Hall took both meetings last year and I think the Pirates will make the necessary adjustments to pull themselves out of their recent funk.

The Hall got caught up in playing a half court offensive game in its last two matchups and I believe we'll see the Pirates push the pace more against a Georgetown team that would love nothing more than to slow the game down.

Three-pointers will also be key in this matchup where the spread is almost inconsequential and the Pirates clearly have they edge there. They rank first in the nation at defending the 3-pointer (25.5 percent) and it gets even better at home where they hold foes to just 20 percent 3-point shooting.

The Hoyas went a disgraceful 1-of-17 from beyond the arc against Villanova and Seton Hall owned them from downtown in last year's meetings by draining a combined 19-of-37 long balls.

I think the adjustment to pace and the 3-point advantage are the keys for Seton Hall here and I feel bettors can take advantage of this miniscule spread as a result. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on INDIANA. The Spurs don't have the best timing when it comes to playing the Pacers here. Even if they'd met them a week ago, they'd be facing a much less confident team than they will face Monday night.

Indiana enters this contest on its first three-game winning streak of the season after squeaking out a 103-102 victory Sunday at Charlotte. The Pacers were set as 2-point favorites in that matchup, meaning they were just two points away from also covering for their third straight game.

The Spurs typically don't mind playing in back-to-back games despite their, ahem, 'experience' but I think they will come into this one a little tired after facing the Raptors Sunday night. Toronto changed the pace of that contest throughout and impressively out-defended San Antonio when it needed to. The Spurs shot just 33.3 percent on field goals and just 25 percent on three-pointers.

I think the Spurs will come into this one slightly off-balance and still searching for their road legs in what will be the second of a nine-game road trip that will end on the last day of the month.

The Pacers don't mind playing defensive ball with anyone and I think home court and an off-balance Spurs team that is slightly worse at rebounding will all be factors in this one. I'll take the points and the Pacers. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on FLORIDA STATE. You could say the Seminoles are the conference Achilles Heel of Duke, with the Noles winning and covering three of the last six matchups. They have also beaten a nationally ranked Duke team six times under head coach Leonard Hamilton.

So no matter where these teams sit in the conference standings, I would definitely lean toward an FSU squad at home with an opening line of double digits to work with.

As luck would have it, Florida State also happens to be playing its best basketball of the season right now. The Seminoles have won three of their last four games and they've covered the spread in five of their last six games.

The Seminoles are shooting 46.7 percent from the field and 37 percent from long range over their past four games and are playing some stout defense to go with it. The Seminoles averaged 6.3 blocks and 4.3 steals per game in those four outings and they are the only team in the ACC averaging more than five blocks per game in conference play. They are also coming off tying their season high of nine blocks against Virginia Tech in their last game, a 73-65 win and cover as 1-point faves.

I think Florida State will be able to slow the pace and grind Duke into a defensive battle on home court, which makes this spread look like way too many points for me. The Blue Devils also don't really like the quick turnaround after the weekend and are 3-12-1 against the spread in their last 16 Monday games. 10* Main Event

I am playing on MEMPHIS. If anyone is going to slow the Atlanta Hawks, it's going to be the best defensive team in the league which is why I like the Grizzlies here on Sunday.

Memphis isn't just the best defensive team in the league with only 95.9 points against per game, the Grizz have been off the charts at protecting the hoop lately. They're stifling teams to just 84.8 points per game over their last five outings and holding teams to just 25.5 percent on three-pointers in that span.

It's that latter stat that I really like for this game because even though Atlanta plays a fantastic all-around game, the Hawks need their 3-ball to be working to beat the best in the NBA.

The Hawks are the best 3-point shooting team in the league and about one third of their points come from treys. That's a huge discrepancy compared to most teams, especially the Grizzlies, who rely on threes for only about 19 percent of their points this season.

I foresee this contest being a battle of which team can impose its will and force the other to play to its style. And with the Grizzlies being at home and playing the most suffocating defense we've seen from any team so far this season, I like Memphis to win that battle.

And if you're worried about Memphis losing to Minnesota last game, the West's worst team, you can throw that one into the waste basket as far as I’m concerned. I think the Grizzlies simply got caught looking ahead to Sunday's matchup with the NBA's best. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO. In a disappointing season for the Dons, this will absolutely be the biggest game of the year for San Francisco and I'm taking them with double digits in points to work with.

This game will be a 'Gold Out' at War Memorial Gymnasium and will be featured on ESPN2, which will also be one of the last games on the board for sports bettors (11:30 p.m. ET).

I feel the Dons are being given too many points to work with simply because they've lost four in a row. But those losses have all be closely contested matchups, decided by an average of 6.25 points per game.

When you line up the statistics, we also don't see the kind of huge discrepancy between these teams that their records suggest. Gonzaga is only scoring about four more points on the road than San Francisco is at home and the Dons are actually allowing two fewer points at home than the Zags allow on the road.

Gonzaga also had its second-worst shooting performance of the season in the first meeting against San Francisco (38.8 percent) and when you put it all together, I just think oddsmakers are being too generous here.

The public is going to look to continue to pile on the Zags but I think there's a great opportunity here to take the underdog. If it were in any other gym, maybe not, but lucky for us this game isn't in any other gym. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on TULSA. Everywhere you look, Tulsa is on a streak of some kind right now so don't be fooled by the fact SMU is ranked in the top 25 and Tulsa isn't.

The Golden Hurricane have won 12 straight games and 21 straight conference games going back to last season and they helped bettors to the window to the tune of a 7-4-1 against the spread record during the most recent streak (one game didn't have a line).

With a spread that's basically a coin flip on Saturday, my money is on the Golden Hurricane once again here.

The current hot streak has Tulsa sitting atop the AAC at 10-0 and they're using defense mostly to do it. The Hurricane rank third in the conference in scoring D (56.9 points against per game) and they're holding opponents to just 38.8 percent on field goals.

They are also coming off a 13-point win over Houston in which Tulsa came out in the second half and absolutely suffocated UH, allowing only 10 points in the second half in one of the finest defensive halves of the college hoops season by any team.

During the streak, Tulsa is outscoring opponents by an average of 11 points, so in my mind this spread is way too low. I also like the fact the Hurricane's top two scorers, James Woodard and Shaquille Harrison, should be closer to 100 percent.

The two players each average over 15 points per game and Woodard was suffering from the flu last game while Harrison had a slightly banged up ankle. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on CHICAGO. The Bulls are mired in a three-game losing streak but I believe one of their biggest problems is one of the easiest to fix: intensity level.

When one of your biggest problems at the pro level is you're not trying hard enough consistently enough, it's not that hard to turn it around.

"Where do you get your intensity from?" head coach Tom Thibodeau said this week."You get it from your concentration and maximum effort. And how do you build that habit? You build it through repetition like you do through everything else. Practice is important. Practicing together is important. All those things are. Your meetings are important. Shootarounds are important. It's all important."

The Bulls come into Saturday's game with two full days off between games, which means they've had plenty of time to work on everything they need to in practice to get some good habits going. It also means Mike Dunleavy has had some added time to get healthy and there's a chance he may play Saturday.

With or without Dunleavy, I still like the Bulls here, but with him the Bulls get a much needed bolstering in their perimeter game too and Thibodeau gets some added minutes into his lineup.

I think we'll see a different Chicago squad Saturday night that is hungry to finish its current 6-game road streak on a high note after starting it 1-3. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Indiana Pacers as my 10* Best Bet Friday.

The Pacers play hosts to the surging Cleveland Cavaliers, who will take the court for the second game of back-to-back outings, coming off a high-profile matchup versus the Los Angeles Clippers Thursday. Indiana will try to take advantage of this tough situational/schedule spot. Cleveland has struggled in Indianapolis, covering just once in its last five trips to Bankers Life Fieldhouse, and the home team is a solid 5-0 ATS in the last five meeting between these clubs.

The Pacers are aiming for some consistency after alternating wins and losses in their last five games. Indiana is coming off a 114-109 victory at home to the Detroit Pistons Wednesday – a season high in scoring for Indiana. The Pacers have put in some solid offensive efforts in recent outings and will need to pick up the scoring pace to keep up with the Cavs. They’re averaging 103.7 points on 51.3 percent shooting in their last three contests – an NBA best in that span.

Cleveland’s winning ways have puffed up its spreads due to the market reacting. However, the Cavs are a costly 9-14 ATS away from home and have played just two of their last 10 on the road. Cleveland is shooting only 43.7 percent as visitors and allowing opponents to put up 101 points per road game. Indiana has a hard-nosed defense, especially at home where teams have gone just 43.6 percent from the field for an average of 96.3 points per game.

The Cavaliers playing the second of back-to-backs on the road and the Pacers’ offensive uptick are why I’m playing on Indiana as my 10* Best Bet Friday.

I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

The Magic are rare favorites at home hosting the lowly Los Angeles Lakers Friday. We’re getting great value with Orlando here, as Los Angeles is on a cross-country road trip and dropped the first two stops of this four-game trek.

The Lakers’ annual “Grammy Trip” – with the music award show taking over the Staples Center this week – wraps in Cleveland Sunday, opening up Los Angeles for a major lookahead spot to that weekend showdown with LeBron James & Co. The Lakers are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games heading into Friday’s contests in Orlando.

The Magic are taking the court for the first times since head coach Jacque Vaughn was fired, looking to snap a 10-game losing skid. Orlando has seen improvement in those final two games, covering at San Antonio and Oklahoma City this week. It lost 110-103 to the Spurs to Wednesday, shooting 50 percent from the floor including a 10-for-21 night from beyond the arc.

The Magic get a break on defense against a Lakers team lacking a proven scoring punch. Los Angeles has mustered an average of only 88 points per game in regulation in its last seven games and shoots just 42.8 percent from the field on the road. The Lakers also give up 107.4 points per road game – second most in the NBA.

The Magic's shakeup on the sidelines and the Lakers' tough road spot are why I’m playing on Orlando as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

I’m playing on the California Golden Bears as my 10* Personal Favorite Thursday.

The Golden Bears host the Southern California Trojans in a battle of two Pac-12 rivals headed in different directions. Cal is making a February push with back-to-back wins while USC enters this contest on a six-game slide.

The Golden Bears have bounced back from a six-game skid of their own with victories over Washington and Washington State on the road. Cal is back in Haas Pavilion Thursday, looking to build on those impressive showings. The Golden Bears scored 76 and 90 points in those victories – a massive jump in production from their 55-point average over those six straight losses.

Cal also has some payback in mind for the Trojans, who beat the Golden Bears last month. Southern Cal upended the Golden Bears 71-57 in Los Angeles, with Cal shooting just over 35 percent from the field and going 4 for 20 from beyond the arc. The Bears’ talented backcourt will put that poor performance behind them in front of the Cal faithful Thursday.

The Golden Bears don’t give away much, turning the ball over just 11.4 times per game and limiting foes to just 7.0 offensive rebounds per game. Southern Cal, which averages only 62.4 points per road game, will have to work for each one of its points and won’t get anything free against this revengeful Cal defense.

The Golden Bears’ momentum and the Trojans' conference free-fall are why I’m playing on California as my 10* Personal Favorite Thursday.

I’m playing on the Portland Trail Blazers as my 10* Personal Favorite Thursday.

The Blazers are happy to be home after a 0-3 road trip last week. Portland suffered a bit of a hangover from that rough road patch, just squeaking by Utah at home Tuesday. The Trail Blazers are looking to put together a strong run before the All-Star Break and can take the first step toward that with a win over the Phoenix Suns Thursday.

The Blazers got a big boost down low with the return of center Robin Lopez this week. Lopez was out with a hand injury and gives Portland some needed frontcourt depth, taking some of the defensive attention off LaMarcus Aldridge. Lopez is a tough defender and a presence on the boards. He scored 11 points and pulled down six boards with two blocks in his first game back.

Lopez looks to be a thorn in the side of his former team Thursday. The Suns aren’t a beefy team up front and have been abused by bigger opponents on the boards this season. Phoenix has a -2.3 rebounding margin and has allowed opponents to grab 12 offensive rebounds per game – third most in the NBA.

The Blazers eager to get back on track at home and their ability to dominate the Suns on the glass are why I’m playing on Portland as my 10* Personal Favorite Thursday.

I’m playing on the Sacramento Kings as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

The Kings are in the midst of a tough patch of games, having just one win in their last 10 contests – a skid that started with a 108-105 overtime loss to the Dallas Mavericks, the same team Sacramento hosts Wednesday night.

While most team’s wouldn’t want to face the Mavs in the middle of such a slide, the Kings have always played Dallas tough and have covered the spread in five of their last six meetings, including that Jan. 13 home loss.

There's a revenge angle for Sacramento, which snapped an eight-game losing streak with a win over Indiana then followed that with a loss to Golden State Tuesday. The Kings dominated the inside against the Mavericks last time out, winning the rebounding war 59-44 – 12 offensive rebounds – and scoring 54 points in the paint. Sacramento is one of the better teams at getting the ball deep into the paint, averaging 43.9 points in the paint per game this year.

Dallas will be playing the second of back-to-back games Wednesday, traveling overnight from the Bay Area immediately following a road game against the Golden State Warriors Tuesday. The Mavericks will be in no shape to body up with the Kings physical frontcourt after chasing the active Warriors up and down the court. Dallas is the fifth-oldest team in the NBA with an average age of 28.5 years old. It shows with a 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 games with no rest.

The Kings' consistent ATS success against the Mavericks and their ability to push around a fatigued Dallas squad are why I’m playing on Sacramento as my 10* Best Bet.

I’m playing on the Minnesota Timberwolves as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday.

The Timberwolves are on the rise, covering the spread in four of their last six games and now have star point guard Ricky Rubio back in the mix. Minnesota fans have to be excited about the combo of Rubio to stud rookie Andrew Wiggins, who has emerged as the next big NBA star. Wiggins has been slowing down a bit, having to shoulder the scoring load for the T-Wolves, but should see a boost with Rubio running the point.

Minnesota welcomes a Miami Heat team coming off a physical loss to the Detroit Pistons Tuesday night. The Heat were rolled 108-91 for their third loss in four games, covering the spread only once in that span. Miami has lacked a scoring punch since star guard Dwyane Wade went down with a hamstring injury, averaging only 82 points in those three games, and will be even slower with the ball having to play the second of back-to-back games on the road.

The Timberwolves are getting much tougher inside with Nikola Pekovic playing his way back into shape and reserve forward Gorgui Dieng making leaps in bounds in his recent efforts. Minnesota is also counting down the days until Shabazz Muhammad returns, but for now it will continue to improve inside and out in the second half of the season.

The T-Wolves' gradual improvement and the Heat running on empty for the second stop of back-to-backs are why I’m playing on Minnesota as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Indiana Pacers as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

The Pacers host the Detroit Piston inside Bankers Life Fieldhouse Wednesday, catching the Pistons playing the second of back-to-back games after a hard-fought matchup in Miami Tuesday. Detroit has snapped a four-game slide with two big wins against the Heat and Houston Rockets and are ripe for a letdown in this tough schedule spot.

The Pistons don’t have a very deep bench, usually going only three or four into their reserves. Detroit leans on its starters for big minutes and with guard Brandon Jennings out for the remainder of the season, the team is missing its motor on both ends of the floor. The Pistons only get 18.7 points per game from their bench – among the lowest averages in the NBA – and will have no choice but to look to these backups for production Wednesday night.

The Pacers, on the other hand, have enjoyed an extended break. Indiana hasn’t been in action since January 31, giving them time to rest up and prepare for this pivotal matchup with Detroit. Indiana has only two wins in its last 10 games but it comes into Wednesday having gone 18-7-2 ATS in its last 27 games off three or more days rest.

The Pistons' short bench on short rest and the Pacers' extended break and prep time are why I’m playing on Indiana as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Connecticut Huskies as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

The defending national champs need an easy layup to snap their two-game skid before heading back out on the road again, and the Huskies find that should-be gimmie in the East Carolina Pirates. Connecticut dropped road games at Houston and Cincinnati, and have been dismal away from Storrs during AAC play.

At home is a different story for the Huskies. UConn allows just 56.9 points per game as a host, compared to 64.6 points per game on the road. It also forces 12.6 turnovers and allows only 6.8 offensive rebounds in those home stands – little things that make the difference when it comes to the scoreboard. The Huskies are desperate for a victory so you can expect that defense to be drum tight Wednesday night.

The Pirates sit near the bottom of the AAC but did snap a three-game skid with a home win over Cincinnati. The Pirates were 10.5-point underdogs in that victory against the Bearcats so there could be a letdown situation for ECU in this road game.

East Carolina is managing only 57.1 points per road trip on 35.9 percent shooting and are just 1-8 ATS in its last nine away tilts. The Pirates are very dependent on the 3-pointer, getting 33.6 percent of their offense from beyond the arc, but fire at just 32.2 percent from distance on the road.

The Huskies hungry for a much-needed victory and the Pirates’ woes on the road are why I’m playing on UConn as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Sacramento Kings as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

The Kings have some revenge in store for the Golden State Warriors Tuesday. The last time these California rivals clashed, Sacramento was embarrassed by a 37-point third quarter eruption from Warriors guard Klay Thompson that eventually gave Golden State a 126-101 home win.

With that still fresh in the minds of oddsmakers, books are handing up a pile of points for the home team and there is great value on the Kings Tuesday night. Sacramento gets a boost from the home crowd after a drawn-out road trip that took them out East and included a postponed game due to snow in New York.

Golden State could get caught looking past the Kings and at their next two games with Dallas and at Atlanta, especially after what happened between these teams last time. The Warriors haven’t been sharp on the road in recent games, covering just twice in their last eight away from home, most recently a loss at Utah last week.

The Kings are going to look to push around the Warriors under the basket, sitting second in the NBA in rebounds with 54.9 total boards per night. That includes 11.1 rebounds on the offensive end and plenty of second looks at the hoop. Golden State has struggled to keep opponents off the glass, and allow an NBA-worst 12.7 offensive rebounds a night. The Warriors were especially weak on the boards in their last three, allowing an average of 15 offensive rebounds in that 1-2 span.

The Kings’ out for revenge and the Warriors' weakness on the glass is why I’m playing on Sacramento as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Tennessee Volunteers as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

The Volunteers are at home, tackling the Mississippi State Bulldogs Tuesday night. Tennessee is slowly climbing the SEC standings with wins in four of its last six outings, posting a 4-2 ATS mark in that span. The Vols have owned the Bulldogs in Knoxville, winning four straight and going 44-10 at home all-time to Mississippi State. They’ve covered in four of their last five meetings with MSU heading into Tuesday.

Tennessee rolled the Bulldogs in their first meeting of the season, winning 61-47 as a 2-point road favorite. The Volunteers locked down Miss State to just 30.6 percent shooting in that game, including a 1-for-9 mark from the 3-point line. The Bulldogs were also dominated on the boards, getting out-rebounded 36-24 with 13 of those Tennessee boards coming on the offensive end.

But despite that one-sided win, The Vols aren’t taking MSU lightly in the rematch. Head coach Donnie Tyndall told reporters he’s seen growth in the Bulldogs offense over the past two weeks, with MSU averaging 69.5 points per game since that loss to UT. The Vols know they have to step it up on defense, even though they're playing solid basketball on that end of the floor.

Tennessee is holding opponents to just 40.8 percent shooting inside Thompson-Boling Arena, and have forced more than 15 turnovers per game as a host. The Bulldogs aren’t the best rebounding team either, giving up 15 offensive boards in their last outing with LSU. The Vols crash the glass hard, averaging more than 10 offensive rebounds a night – 14 in the win over Auburn.

The Volunteers' success at home against the Bulldogs and their stingy defense is why I’m playing on Tennessee as a 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Phoenix Suns as my 10* Best Bet Monday.

The Suns get a crack at one of the Western Conference’s top dogs at home when they welcome the Memphis Grizzlies to US Airways Center Monday. Phoenix recorded two solid home wins in its previous appearances in front of the purple and orange faithful, knocking off Eastern Conference contenders Chicago and Washington.

Phoenix is a change in gears for the Grizzlies, who are more comfortable playing a plodding, methodical pace. The Suns average 99.3 points per 100 possessions – second fastest in the NBA – and produce 107.4 points on their home court – third highest in the league. Phoenix will look to suck the Grizzlies into a track meet, and get them out of their comfort zone on both ends of the floor.

The Suns have picked up their toughness around the hoop in recent games, averaging 56.0 total rebounds an outing over their last three contests. This is a sharp uptick in rebounding for Phoenix, which pulls down an average of just 50 rebounds a night on the season. This also includes a major improvement crashing the offensive glass, after the Suns corralled 15 offensive boards in the loss to Golden State.

Memphis is a team that thrives on pushing around opponents for those loose ball. The Grizzlies snatch up 51.5 rebounds an outing, while limiting foes to only 49.9 rebounds overall. The Grizzlies are on a six-game tear and could be ripe for a bit of a letdown after putting Oklahoma City in its place Saturday, with a big statement victory.

The Suns’ ability to dictate the pace and their improved work on the boards are why I’m playing on Phoenix as a 10* Best Bet Monday.

I’m playing on the Kansas Jayhawks as my 10* Main Event Monday.

The Jayhawks have a massive Big 12 battle with the Iowa State Cyclones Monday. Kansas nearly got caught looking ahead to ISU in its weekend tilt with Kansas State, jumping out to a big lead early then letting up in the second half.

The Jayhawks can stake their claim as the team to beat in the conference with a win over the Cyclones at home, where they’ve gone 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games in Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas is tightening up on defense, limiting its last three opponents to an average of 60 points on 34.4 percent shooting.

You can be sure the Jayhawks aren’t taking Iowa State lightly after suffering back-to-back losses to the Cyclones, including an 86-80 loss in Ames in January. This is a big revenge spot for KU, which looks to take advantage of one of the top home-court edges in the country.

Iowa State is a power house at home but its numbers dip when on the road. The Cyclones are just 1-2 away from home in conference play and suffered an embarrassing loss at Texas Tech in its last road outing. Kansas has a toughness inside that should pester ISU big man Georges Niang. The Jayhawks have blocked a total of 19 shots in the last two games and have swatted an average of 7.7 in their last three outings.

The Jayhawks out for revenge on their home court and the Cyclones' issues on the road are why I’m playing on Kansas as my 10* Main Event Monday.

I’m playing on the New York Knicks as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

The Knicks welcome a Los Angeles Lakers team making the cross-country hike to the Big Apple for a very early start time Sunday afternoon. Due to the Super Bowl, the NBA schedules its Sunday contests for matinee matchups, meaning this 2 p.m. ET tipoff comes at 11 a.m. back in Los Angeles. 

The Lakers aren’t used to taking the court so early. And on top of that travel, time shirt and early start, L.A. is vulnerable to a massive letdown spot after stunning the Chicago Bulls in overtime in their most recent outing. It was a big game for the Lakers, with former star forward Pau Gasol returning to the Staples Center for the first time since leaving the team. And the bigger the game, the bigger the fall. We’re taking advantage of this very unique situational spot on Super Bowl Sunday.

That win snapped a nine-game losing skid for the Lakers, who have been toothless on offense during this stretch. Los Angeles has managed to score over 100 points in regulation just three times in its last 10 games and shoots just 43.1 percent on the road, mustering only 98.3 points per road game. Those scoring numbers are already declining with Kobe Bryant out for the year with a shoulder injury.

New York is licking its chops come the weekend. Rarely are the Knicks the favorites and even fewer are the amount of teams below them on the NBA pecking order. New York is playing some of its best basketball of the season, with four wins in its last six outings, including a solid home victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Knicks have covered in five of their last six overall and the home team has covered the spread in each of the past six meetings between these big-market franchises.

The Lakers’ rough situational spot and the Knicks’ improved play is why I’m playing on New York as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on the UCLA Bruins as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Bruins are coming off a massive home win Thursday, exacting some revenge on the Utah Utes for a bad loss in Salt Lake City earlier this season. UCLA now has some payback in store for the Colorado Buffaloes, who trumped the Bruins 62-56 in Boulder on Jan. 2.

The Bruins were a dismal 31 percent from the field in that loss and hit just 6 of 26 3-point attempts while coughing up the basketball 13 times. UCLA is one of the most two-faced programs in the country when it comes to home/away play, and is a completely different beast in Pauley Pavilion as it proved in the win against the Utes.

UCLA, which scores a measly 60 points on the road, is putting up an average of 82.5 points at home, knocking down 47.2 percent of its looks – compared to an icy 36.5 percent on the road. The Bruins matched that output with a 46.2 percent shooting night against Utah and only turned the ball over six times.

The Bruins have five players scoring in double digits and present a tough challenge for the Buffaloes, who allow 10 more points per road game as they do at home. Colorado has struggled as the visitor and is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road contests.

Add to that the absence of 6-foot-10 junior Josh Scott, who scores almost 14 points and grabs seven rebounds a game. Scott, who is out with back spasms, leaves a big hole under the rim against a tall and athletic UCLA team that attacks the offensive glass for 11.6 offensive boards per game.

The Bruins' play in Pauley and the Buffaloes' troubles away from Boulder is why I’m playing on UCLA as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

The Clippers take court in San Antonio on short rest, coming off a game against the New Orleans Pelicans Friday night. Los Angeles brings a six-game winning streak into the weekend, still fresh into an eight-game road trip that will take them into mid-February.

The Clippers can stake their place in the Western Conference pecking order against the Spurs, having revenge as their fuel in this matchup. Los Angeles lost 125-118 in their last trip to Texas back in December.

San Antonio has puffed up its record with a schedule rich with cupcake opponents. The Spurs have a three-game winning streak going into this matchup, having beaten Charlotte, Milwaukee and the L.A. Lakers in that span. San Antonio’s recent slate has featured other terrible teams like Denver, Utah and Minnesota. Oddsmakers are putting too much weight into those wins and giving great value to the Clippers Saturday.

Los Angeles has the energy in the frontcourt to match San Antonio, namely Kawahi Leonard. Leonard has been the spark plug for this aging San Antonio roster but he runs into a Clippers roster with DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin and always-pesky Matt Barnes. With L.A. able to neutralize Leonard’s energy, the Clippers will look to attack San Antonio and get easy buckets inside off dribble penetration from Chris Paul, who had 25 points and nine assists in the last game against the Spurs.

The Clippers out for revenge in this important Western matchup and the Spurs’ soft sked is why I’m playing on Los Angeles as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I’m playing on Oklahoma State as my 10* Rivalry Game of the Month.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys welcome rivals the Oklahoma Sooners to Stillwater for basketball’s version of Bedlam. The Pokes are playing with passion and revenge after a one-sided loss to OU in Norman, getting blown out 82-65.

Oklahoma State is a much tougher team inside Gallagher-Iba Arena, where it’s gone 61-29-4 ATS in its previous 94 games – an ATS winning clip of 67 percent. The Cowboys are short favorites and present some terrific spread value in this classic revenge/rivalry spot.

Oklahoma State shot just 37 percent from the field at Oklahoma earlier this month, including going 7 for 26 from beyond the 3-point arc and turning the ball over 16 times. Things couldn’t get much worse for OSU in that loss. The Cowboys hit at a 46 percent clip at home and average 71.5 points as hosts – compared to just 63.4 points per road tilt.

The Sooners aren’t the same team away from Norman. Oklahoma smashed hapless Texas Tech at home in its last outing but dropped back-to-back road games before that, losing at Baylor and Kansas. In fact, OU has covered only once in its last five road stops – averaging 67.8 points away from home, which is more than a 10-point decrease than its season scoring average inside the Lloyd Noble Center.

The Cowboys out for revenge and their strong home-court edge over a road weary Sooner squad is why I’m playing on Oklahoma State as my 10* Rivalry Game of the Month

I’m playing on the Buffalo Bulls as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

The Bulls put a perfect home record on the line against the MAC East-leading Kent State Golden Flashes Friday night. Buffalo is 7-0 inside Alumni Arena (4-3 ATS) and will be playing in front of a packed house, with the fans going with the “Black Out” theme for this nationally televised MAC matchup.

The Bulls average 80.7 points on 45.4 percent shooting per game at home and are getting tremendous line value from oddsmakers sizing up the Flashes’ current winning streak. Kent State has compiled six straight victories heading into this road game, however, all but two of those came in Ohio and this is just its third conference road game. The Bulls are one of the best home bets in the MAC and have covered the spread in 13 of their previous 18 home stands.

Buffalo will overwhelm the Golden Flashes with their high-scoring attack. Kent State is only putting up 65.7 points per game, with that number dipping to 63.4 ppg on the road. It has done well defensively against conference foes, but has cracked when on the road against superior offensive programs. The Golden Flashes were gashed for 78 points in both road losses to Kansas and UTEP, and could find themselves playing from behind in front of a rabid home crowd in Buffalo Friday.

The Bulls’ home-court advantage and the Golden Flashes’ lack of road toughness is why I’m playing on Buffalo as a 10* Personal Favorite Friday

I’m playing on the Utah Jazz as my 10* Best Bet Friday.

Utah is home to the Golden State Warriors, getting a handful of points from bookmakers Friday night. The Jazz catch the Warriors in a letdown spot following their hard-fought overtime loss to the Chicago Bulls Tuesday, a loss that snapped the franchise’s 19-game home winning streak.

Utah will try to bring this game to a screeching standstill and abuse a soft Golden State interior for second-chance points. The Jazz are a complete mismatch in pace for the Warriors, averaging a mere 92.8 points per 100 possessions – the second slowest pace in the entire NBA.

Utah will drag out possessions and limit the amount of damage Golden State’s sharp-shooting backcourt can do. The Jazz are a solid defensive club, giving up only 97.8 points per home game on the season. They’ve held their last four opponents to under 100 points, going 3-1 ATS in that span.

The Jazz will also take advantage of a Golden State frontcourt that has troubles cleaning the glass. The Warriors collect only 10.2 offensive rebounds per game while allowing opponents to hit the offensive boards for an average of 12.6 rebounds – most allowed in the league.

Utah may be coming off back-to-back losses to the Clippers and Celtics but it did win the rebounding battle in those contests and brings down 11.5 offensive boards a game – 16 in the loss to Los Angeles. The Jazz outworked the Warriors on the glass in their most recent meeting, 44-31 but fell 116-105 in Salt Lake City.

The Jazz’s methodical pace and ability to beat up the Warriors for second-chance buckets is why I’m playing on Utah as my 10* Best Bet Friday.

I’m playing on the UCLA Bruins as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

The Bruins welcome the No. 10 Utah Utes to Pauley Pavilion Thursday in a game that could truly define UCLA’s place in the Pac-12 picture. The Bruins have lost their last two games and are back home after playing three straight on the road.

UCLA is treading water in the conference standings and desperately needs a big-name victory to fill out its resume before tournament time. This is a massive revenge spot for the Bruins, who choked on a 71-39 lopsided loss in Salt Lake City earlier this month – a defeat that set the tone for an inconsistent conference schedule.

The Bruins are a different team inside Pauley, shooting 47.2 percent as hosts compared to a chilly 36.5 percent on the road. UCLA averages 83.9 points per home stand – a 23.9-point increase over its road scoring average. And the Bruins turn the ball over just 10.9 times in Pauley Pavilion, a much steadier hand than the 13.8 turnovers per game on the road.

The Utes are a similar bread, having great success at home but having a tough time translating that to their away schedule. Utah has played only six games on the road so far, going 3-3 SU and 2-1-1 ATS. And much like the Bruins, the Utes see a drastic dropoff in offensive production when in enemy territory. They score 81.8 points per home game but only 60 on the road. The home team just so happens to be a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meeting between these Pac-12 members.

The Bruins playing for revenge on their home court and the Utes' dropoff on the road is why I’m playing on UCLA as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

The Magic are back home in the Amway Center hosting the Milwaukee Bucks Thursday night. Orlando has faced a tough stretch of games, with three of its last four coming on the road – all of which resulted in losses. The Magic have actually dropped six straight but showed signs of life – or at least betting value – by covering the 12 points in a loss to the Memphis Grizzlies last time out.

Orlando is setting up nicely at home, getting points against a Bucks team that is ripe for a letdown/lookahead spot thanks to some bigger-name teams on their recent calendar. Milwaukee is coming off game versus San Antonio and Miami, and have matchups with Portland and Toronto following Thursday’s stopover in Orlando.

The Magic have been bad defensively during this losing skid but showed some toughness in the loss to Memphis Monday. Orlando, which had allowed an average of 116 points the five games prior, held the Grizzlies to only 36 points in the second half, including 14 points in the fourth quarter. The last time the Magic faced Milwaukee, they limited the Bucks to 85 points – just 36 of those coming in the second half.

Orlando has dominated this series when it comes to the covering the spread. The Magic have covered in nine of their last 12 head-to-head clashes and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus the Bucks inside the Amway Center.

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Wizards will be playing their third West Coast game in five nights when they visit Phoenix Wednesday and the Suns aren't the kind of team you want to be facing on weary legs.  Phoenix is the third highest scoring team in the NBA and is scoring even more lately with 110.8 points per game over the team's last five compared to a season average of 107.4.  The Wiz have been lighting it up a little lately too with at least 103 points in each of their last three games, but they are a little banged up heading into this one. Forward Paul Pierce is questionable with a toe injury and NBA assist leader John Wall is questionable with an Achilles injury. Don't count on either one missing out, but even if they do play I wonder how long they can keep pace with a Phoenix team that loves to run the floor.  Phoenix has lost two in a row, but I like the Suns to bounce back here with a more focused effort on Wednesday. They have run into technical foul trouble lately and coach Jeff Hornacek is cracking down on his team.   "Something is going to have to be done; we don’t play them, we continue to sit them like this or we get new guys in here that want to win a championship," Hornacek said after a loss to Clippers on Sunday.  I like Phoenix to come back strong here against what is quickly becoming a road weary Wizards team. 10* Personal Favorite

 I am playing on UTAH. The Jazz have made some recent moves that are giving the team a bit of a new look when it takes the court and I like that new look to cover the number at home Wednesday.  Coach Quin Snyder has begun starting Dante Exum at point guard and he now has Trey Burke coming off the bench to give him a better one-two punch. The Jazz won their first two games since Snyder made the move (though they lost to Boston last game) and the team appears to be improving all around.  Exum brings a faster pace to Utah and over the two wins he averaged 14 points with some hot shooting from 3-point range (8-of-15) to go along with 4.5 assists. Burke averaged 14.5 points in the two wins while playing 25 minutes and the shared playing time seems to be giving the Jazz a much needed lift.  I like Utah to cover here against a Clippers squad the Jazz have covered two of three games against this year despite losing all three straight up.  L.A. is playing its third game in four nights against fast paced teams, albeit the Jazz might be considered newly so. I think it's a lot to ask the Clippers to cover this number on the road on Wednesday and I'm taking the Jazz. 10* Best Bet

INDIANA at PURDUE
I am playing on PURDUE. The Hoosiers continue a tough week after facing a feisty Ohio State squad on Sunday and now they head to state rival Purdue where Mackey Arena should prove to be another hostile environment.   
The Boilermakers should have some helpful film to work with after Sunday's game because the Buckeyes figured out the key to beating Indiana and executed on it. 
On defense against the Hoosiers, it's all about stopping the dribble penetration. Indiana has a talented slate of guards who like to push the ball inside and decide from there whether to kick it out or drive to the hoop based on what the defense gives, and they are more than happy to do either. 
Ohio State forced 15 turnovers after Indiana averaged just nine in its five previous conference games prior to that. 
On offense, the Hoosiers can be beaten in the paint and I think this is where Purdue can give them a mismatch. Freshman Isaac Haas and junior A.J. Hammons each average over 10 points per game and I believe they can outperform the Hoosiers down low. 
Indiana will be without its best big man, Hanner Mosquera-Perea, who is out with a knee injury until mid February and Robert Johnson, a key all-around guard, is questionable after he hurt his knee last game. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on NOTRE DAME. I am taking the Irish in this nationally televised game on ESPN2 where I think the home crowd is going to make a huge difference in a gritty contest. 
Notre Dame is 13-1 on home court this season, not to mention the Irish are off to their best 21-game start since the early 1970s. Duke has some impressive scoring numbers that match up pretty well against Notre Dame's this season but they get worse on the road and I think the Irish will pull it out in a hard fought game. 
The Blue Devils are averaging eight fewer points on the road and they give up 5.5 more points. I think that will sting against an Irish team that is the top shooting team in the conference and second best shooting team in Division 1 hoops (52.1 percent on field goals). The Irish are also tops in the conference in 3-pointers per game (nine) and 3-point percentage (40). 
It's that perimeter shooting that I think will give Duke troubles with its recent 2-3 zone defense. I also think the Blue Devils may have a bit of an emotional letdown here after earning Coach K his 1000th win on Sunday. 10* Notre Dame

I am playing on MIAMI. The Heat are playing like a new team these days and the secret behind why might be out of the bag after this past weekend. His name is Hassan Whitehead. 
Whitehead saw more than 20 minutes in a game for the first time this season on Jan. 4 against Brooklyn and the Heat are probably wishing they could go back to November so they could insert him into the lineup more starting back then. The seven-footer had his first double double that night against the Nets and has had two more since - and a monstrous triple double on Sunday against the Bulls where he had 14 points, 13 rebounds and 12 blocks. The Heat won 96-84 as 7.5-point underdogs and suddenly they're a team nobody is too excited to play right now. 
The biggest difference Whitehead might be making is on defensive. Suddenly the Heat have depth in the paint and it's showing in the numbers. They have gone from a team that allows 92.9 points per game this season to holding teams to just 85.2 points over their last five. The under has also come through in 11 straight Miami games - another testament to their defensive play. 
The Heat's sudden new size and depth under the basket leave Milwaukee in a mismatch situation Tuesday night. Center Larry Sanders remains suspended indefinitely and center John Henson is expected to play but injured his ankle last game and may be slowed by that.  With the recent play of Whitehead and the defensive toughness the Heat are showing right now, I believe they'll handle the Bucks easily on home court here. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on PITTSBURGH. Virginia Tech comes into this game in an absolutely brutal spot and I think they're going to have a tough time with Pitt here.  The Hokies enter this game having played four consecutive top 15 teams - Virginia, Notre Dame, UNC and Louisville - and they lost all four to make it seven straight defeats. The Hokies now enter Tuesday's game on a 12-game conference losing streak and I believe they won't be able to shake off the hangover after the most recent loss, to state rival Virginia. was their most crushing. They blew a 10-point lead to lose by three points as 16.5-point dogs.  Virginia Tech will be without its top scorer, guard Justin Bibbs again Tuesday, who has missed the last three games with a concussion. The Hokies just aren't the same squad without him and they are averaging a measly 53.3 points in his absence.  The Hokies are also getting obliterated on the boards night in and night out. They have been out-rebounded by a minimum of 13 boards and as many as 25 over their past three outings and I just don't believe they can get hot enough shooting without their best player to make up for that. 10* Personal Favorite 

I’m playing on the Denver Nuggets as my 10* Best Bet Monday.

The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers are both taking the court for the second half of back-to-back outings Monday, with Denver covering the spread in a slight overtime loss to Washington and L.A. coasting to a comfortable victory in Phoenix Sunday.

However, this home game for the Clippers sets up as a tough situational spot. Monday is a lone home stand before an extended eight-game road trip puts the team on the highway for the next two weeks. Teams are often unfocused in these standalone home spots before a long away trek, dealing with off-court matters before such an extended period on the road.

Denver is not the team the Clippers want to look past Monday. The Nuggets thrive on hustle and play a physical style that works hard for every loose ball. Denver brings a six-game losing skid into this matchup, hungry to get its first win since Jan. 14. The Nuggets took a 109-106 victory over Los Angeles in December, limiting the Clippers’ fastbreak points and battling them for every rebound.

The Nuggets are always a handful on the boards, ranked third in rebounds per game (54.9) including 12.6 offensive rebounds a night. Denver has been especially lively on the offensive glass in recent games, averaging 14.3 offensive rebounds in the last three – grabbing 14 in the OT loss to the Wizards. Those extra looks at the basket quickly add up and make sizable spreads like this easy to cover.

Despite their athletic frontcourt, the Clippers don’t rebound exceptionally well outside of center DeAndre Jordan. Los Angeles gives up more than 10 offensive rebounds an outing and has watched opponents pull down an average of 51 boards a night.

The Clippers’ looking ahead to their upcoming road trip and the Nuggets' tenacity on the glass is why I’m playing on Denver as my 10* Best Bet Monday.

I’m playing on the North Carolina Tar Heels as my 10* Main Event Monday.

North Carolina takes a five-game winning streak into this clash with Syracuse at home, continuing to build momentum as ACC play stiffens up. The Tar Heels have had some close games during this span but will benefit from a home-court crowd in Chapel Hill and a complete mismatch in pace.

North Carolina is scoring more than 79 points per game and runs one of the fastest paces in the country, averaging 72.8 possessions per game. The Tar Heels will look to their speed to force Syracuse out of its slow-motion comfort zone.

The Orange, known for their zone defense, have also been playing a methodical pace on offense, as to combat their own offensive inefficiencies. Syracuse is turning out 68.4 points per game on under 44 percent shooting from the field, including a poor 31.9 percent touch from the 3-point arc. That field goal percentage dips to just above 40 percent when hitting the highway.

North Carolina will use its speed and scoring depth to put SU on its heels, beat the zone defense down the floor before it can set up and force the Orange to pick up the pace on offense. Even the slightest lead can balloon for UNC, with Syracuse lacking the horse power to claw its way back on the scoreboard.

The Tar Heels' up-tempo attack and the Orange’s lack of scoring pop on the road is why I’m playing on North Carolina as a 10* Main Event Monday.

I am playing on TORONTO. The Raptors have the luxury of facing what should be a fatigued Pistons team on Sunday, who enter this game fresh off playing at Milwaukee Saturday night. 
The Pistons already don't like playing Toronto much - the Raptors have covered in eight of the last 10 meetings - and it won't help the Pistons any to throw tired legs into the mix. 
The Raps have had some struggles lately, winning just four of their last 12 games but they've won two of their last three and I think we'll see the best Raptors team we've seen in a couple weeks show up against Detroit. They are showing signs of playing better as a team lately after six players picked up double digits in a win over the Sixers Friday night. 
Toronto did show some lulls against Philly though, and I think we'll see a much more energized team after head coach Dwane Casey addressed it with his squad.  
"We've got an air of complacency and I don't like it," Casey said after the Sixers game. "It's everybody collectively. We have to come out with a better effort. We can't come out and perform like that."
Kyle Lowry took over when the Raps needed him most and scored 17 of his 21 points in the fourth quarter against Philadelphia. He's another reason, of course, I like Toronto with the Raps having the advantage of owning the best player on the court when they lace up on Sunday.
The Pistons are an improved team, no question, but they still struggle with shooting. They entered Saturday ranked third-worst in field-goal percentage and second worst in free-throw percentage in the NBA. 10* Personal Favorite

10* Ohio State analysis

I’m playing on the Florida Gators as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

The Gators head to Oxford to take on the Ole Miss Rebels in an SEC showdown. Billy Donovan’s kids are coming off ugly back-to-back losses and this isn’t a coach or a program that allows those skids to turn into slumps. I fully expect a rejuvenated Florida team to hit the court against Mississippi and we’re getting tremendous line value with the Gators due to those stumbles.

Florida has let up defensively in those losses to LSU and Georgia, allowing those teams to shoot a combined 54 percent from the field and knock down 16 of 28 from beyond the arc (57 percent). Those are uncharacteristic numbers for a Donovan team, especially one that has limited foes to just 58.9 points per game on 40 percent shooting on the season.

Ole Miss isn’t much of a threat from distance, shooting just 35.6 percent from the perimeter for the year. The Rebels have been even colder in their last three games, knocking down just 30.4 percent of looks from 3-point range and finished 4 for 18 from beyond the arc in a loss to Georgia last time out.

Mississippi has also had issues keeping opponents off the boards, giving up 10 offensive rebounds a night. Ole Miss ranks 197th in opponents’ total rebounds per game and takes on a beefy Gators frontcourt featuring glass eaters Dorian Finney-Smith, Jon Horford, and Chris Walker. Expect Florida to exploit that size down low and pick up plenty of second-chance looks.

The Gators tightening up on defense against a poor perimeter-orientated Rebels squad and that ability to dominate the glass is why I’m playing on Florida as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I’m playing on the Minnesota Golden Gophers as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

Minnesota hosts the Illinois Fighting Illini in a battle of Big Ten teams trying to make up some lost ground in the standings. The Golden Gophers haven’t played their best basketball to kick off conference play but there is plenty of reasons to like this program and Saturday’s game is going to be Minnesota’s coming-out party.

The Gophers have suffered some close losses to open Big Ten competition and a few breaks here and there could have this team sitting in a much sweeter spot. Minnesota has lacked the little things that make the difference in those tight games, like foul shooting and rebounding. The Golden Gophers are shooting 68 percent from the stripe at home – compared to just 59 percent on the road – and matchup with an Illinois team that has been any but dominant on the boards.

The Fighting Illini are missing some key members of their backcourt and have turned in some inconsistent efforts on defense, locking down Purdue to just 57 points in their most recent outing but allowing Indiana to run up 80 points in the game before. Minnesota is a deep team with six different players putting up an average of at least 8.9 points a contest.

The Golden Gophers turning the corner at home and Illinois struggling to contain that depth is why I’m playing on Minnesota as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on the CLIPPERS. This game is as much about playing on the Clippers as it is about playing against the Nets. 
Brooklyn has lost and failed to cover in eight of its last 10 games heading into three-game West Coast road trip that began Wednesday night in Sacramento. A big part of their most recent struggles has been the absence of point guard Deron Williams, without whom the Nets have gone 1-6 against the spread. 
Williams was out Wednesday night and could be back Thursday, but at best he may be facing some rust after sitting out eight games. They could desperately use 
The Clippers aren't the team you want to face when you're struggling. They are the eighth best field goal shooting team and the third best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and they get even hotter at home. They are 18-7 on home court compared to 10-7 on the road.
L.A. is also the fourth top scoring team in the NBA and I just don't see a low-scoring Brooklyn team being able to keep up enough to cover here. The Nets have reach 100 points just twice in their past 10 games. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on CHICAGO.The Bulls are in a bit of a slump but I believe their problems are somewhat straightforward to fix and oddsmakers are being too generous here. 
The Bulls simply aren't giving enough effort out there on a nightly basis and they've looked flat with the absence of Joakim Noah and Mike Dunleavy. I think we'll see a much better effort Thursday night with a nationally televised home game and the team's top player, Derrick Rose, sounding totally fed up. 
"Everybody has to be on the same page," Rose said this week. "Until then, we're going to continue to get our butt kicked. It's the whole team. We're not communicating when we're on the floor. Everybody's quiet. We've got to give a better effort. It seems like we're not even competing." 
Those are easy problems to fix and home court with some points in their back pocket should do the trick. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on INDIANA 10*. Atlanta has been on a quite a streak lately but I think this is a few too many points for them to cover.

The Pacers have lost five straight and are desperate for a strong effort.  Keep in mind that four of Indiana’s five losses during this streak have been by less than double digit points.

Indiana has been strong on the road the road as a betting team with 14 ATS wins compared to just nine ATS losses this season.  

Atlanta has gotten the best of Indiana the last two meetings this season so revenge will be on the mind of the Pacers.

The Hawks have a high profile home game coming up against a strong Oklahoma City Thunder side on Friday night that is sure to attract some media attention. Don’t be surprised if Atlanta gets caught looking ahead to that game a little bit here.

Atlanta has been on massive ATS streak here over the past little while and is indeed a strong team. However, as the streak continues the points spread continues to get higher for the team and this spread is one of the highest it has had to cover so far this season.

I expect the Pacers to provide a much tougher test than most will be expecting. INDIANA 10* Best Bet

I am playing on NEBRASKA. The Huskers have used their tough defense to go 2-0-1 against the spread over their last three games and they face a Minnesota team that isn't exactly loving Big Ten season right now.  The Gophers are just 1-5 since conference play began and their bettors haven't seen a dime in any of those games after an 0-6 against the spread start. I don't think Minnesota's luck is about to change going up against a Nebraska field-goal defense  that ranks third in the Big Ten and is on pace to be the best Husker D in over 50 years.  Nebraska also held its first 16 opponents this season to just 27.6 percent from beyond the 3-point line until they let Wisconsin shoot better than 50 percent last game. I think that was just an anomaly though and we'll see Nebraska return to its normal self Tuesday night.  Minnesota is notorious to Big Ten counterparts for being better at home than on the road and the Gophers' numbers are proving it so far again this year. They are 0-3 SU and ATS on the road in conference play and allowed at least 70 points in all three games. The Gophers also score about 10 fewer points on the road than their overall average this season.  I think Nebraska's Tim Petteway, the Big Ten's second leading scorer, will generate enough Huskers enough offense to cover this small number against a weak road team and the Husker D will take care of the rest.   10* Main Event

I am playing on NEW ENGLAND. The Colts are on a great run and I think oddsmakers have laid out a tempting line for underdog players, but I think the Patriots cover this one on home field against one of their favorite opponents. 
The Colts have been the whipping boys of the Pats recently, with New England winning the last three meetings by an average of 26 points and they covered the spread in those games by an average of more than three touchdowns (21.2 pts). 
This is a different Indianapolis team, you say? Sure, I'll admit the Colts are much improved but I still think the Patriots are the better team and they cover this weekend. 
There is a lot of talk about an improved secondary for Indianapolis, which is true but the Colts are getting too much credit for last week's game against the Broncos. Peyton Manning looked dreadful with errant, fluttering passes sailing off the mark while going 26 of 46.  
The Colts won't have any such luck against Tom Brady and New England. Brady went 33-of-50 last week while throwing for 367 yards and three TDs against what I feel is a much better defense. The Pats used trick plays, Rob Gronkowski and a host of receivers to come back and beat the Ravens. 
The problem for the Colts is they won't know what to worry about with New England when the Pats have the ball. The passing game was in top form last week but the Pats also pounded the Colts for 246 yards rushing when they met in November.
Home field (the Pats are 8-1 ATS last nine games at home vs. teams with a winning record), the Pats' versatile offense and an overrated Colts secondary are the reasons I like New England to win and cover this week. 10* Patriots

(*This line could potentially dip below -7. So it may be wise to wait to play. If waiting, keep a close eye on the movements and act accordingly.)

I’m playing on Cal. State Fullerton as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

The Titans are providing terrific value at home in this battle between the bottom team in the Big West standings and the first-place UC Davis Aggies.

While it seems like there are miles between these programs when looking at their overall win/loss records, a closer look at the Titans’ non-conference slate and you quickly know why. Cal State Fullerton has gone toe-to-toe with some big-name teams, including New Mexico, Southern Cal, and UCLA. This is a tested team that hasn’t shied away from stiff competition and it should show in this matchup with the conference’s current top dog.

The Aggies have overachieved so far this season, thanks to a softer non-conference schedule and 2-0 start to Big West play. UC Davis stunned Long Beach State in overtime at home as 3-point underdogs and then took an easy victory at UC Irvine, but entered the year projected to finish seventh in the Big West.

This team relies heavily on its scoring to put distance on the scoreboard, especially from its shots from beyond the arc. The Aggies are the top 3-point shooting team in the country, knocking down 43.9 percent of their looks from long range. But that's always a dangerous reliance when hitting the highway and playing in foreign gyms. 

The Titans have a potent attack of their own. Cal State Fullerton has tinkered with its starting five over the course of non-conference play, which hindered the development of its offensive chemistry. But, the Titans have run the same starting five the last seven outings, producing 71.2 points per game in that span – matching UC Davis’ season average of 71.2, which ranks 105th in the country.

The Titans’ toughness in big games and their improved offensive chemistry is why I’m playing on Cal State Fullerton as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I’m playing on the Houston Rockets as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Rockets catch the Golden State Warriors at the perfect time, hosting a road-weary Warriors side coming to the Toyota Center Saturday. Golden State lost a grueling 127-115 decision to the Oklahoma City Thunder Friday and take the court for its third game in four days against a Houston team that’s won five of its last six SU and ATS.

For a team that depends on its pace to overwhelm opponents, Saturday’s tough scheduling spot will be a big challenge for the Warriors. Golden State not only has to battle fatigue but also a very physical Houston defense that gives up 97.6 points per game and defends against the 3-ball better than most, limiting opponent to just 31 percent shooting from beyond the arc.

Houston isn’t just getting it done with defense, either. The Rockets have poured on the points in recent outings, averaging 112.7 points per game in their last three – most in the NBA in that three-game span. They’re shooting 48.6 percent from the field, including a 40 percent touch from distance in those contests.

The Warriors were rolled on the boards in the loss to Oklahoma City, getting out-rebounded 54-43 and allowed the Thunder to scoop up 16 offensive boards. The Rockets are one of the top rebounding teams in the West, averaging 53.3 boards per game, and hit the offensive glass hard, with 12.3 per game. Golden State could be too tired to fight for those loose balls, giving up easy putbacks to a hungry Houston team.

The Warriors’ tough scheduling spot and the Rockets' two-way dominance is why I’m playing on Houston as a 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

The Bulls welcome the red-hot Atlanta Hawks to the United Center, hoping that chilly winter Chicago wind can cool off their opponents. The Hawks bring an 11-game SU and ATS win streak into Saturday, wrapping up a four-game road trip against the Bulls.

Chicago is a rare underdog at home for this contest and presents solid value here, with the market jumping on Atlanta’s recent success and puffing up the spread. The Bulls have dominated this series when it comes to covering the spread, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven with the Hawks and covering in each of their last four home stands against Atlanta.

The Bulls are out to make a statement in this game, and star point guard Derrick Rose appears to be finding his stroke at just the right time. After an extended cold skid from the field, Rose has gone off for 32 and 29 points in his last two games, knocking down a collective 11 of 17 from beyond the arc. Rose was 12 of 20 from the field with five 3-pointers in Chicago’s road win over the Boston Celtics Friday.

Atlanta came away with a big win in Toronto Friday and could be ripe for a letdown, having to travel overnight to Chicago for this Saturday showdown. The Hawks have dropped six straight games inside the United Center and face a Bulls side out to avenge a loss in Atlanta in December, back when Rose was struggling with his shot.

The Bulls' ATS success against the overvalued Hawks and Rose’s turnaround is why I’m playing on Chicago as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I’m playing on the Georgetown Hoyas as a 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Hoyas are back home in DC after playing their last two games on the road, opening the doors of the Verizon Center to the Butler Bulldogs.

This is a revenge spot for Georgetown after falling to Butler earlier in the season, losing 64-58 in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in November. The Hoyas found themselves down early in that contest and couldn’t battle back, but were coming off a grueling game versus Wisconsin and an overtime affair with Florida. Fast forward to Saturday, and Georgetown is getting great line value as a short favorite at home to the Bulldogs.

Georgetown isn’t going to give many second-chance looks at the basket, with 37.7 boards per contests. That includes limiting opponents to an average of only 7.3 offensive rebounds over the Hoyas’ last three games. Butler, which leads the Big East in rebounding, ripped down just six offensive rebounds in the first meeting with the Hoyas and won’t find easy second looks Saturday.

Georgetown will look to pick up the pace versus the Bulldogs and beat their zone back to the key. The Hoyas defense is forcing 13.5 turnovers per game, with 7.8 of those coming off steals. The Hoyas will parlay those takeaways into easy transition buckets before the Bulldogs can get set on defense.

The Hoyas out for revenge on their own court and their ability to clean the glass is why I’m playing on Georgetown as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

am playing on UTAH. I love this spot for the Jazz Friday night at home against the Lakers. The two biggest reasons are a huge improvement on defense for the Jazz and a Lakers team playing in one of its worst situations. 

The Lakers like playing the second contest of back-to-back situations about as much as Kobe likes going 5-for-28 from field-goal and 3-point range like he did against the Heat the other night. The Lakers are 1-7 straight up on zero days of rest this season and could be facing a special kind of letdown coming off a nationally televised game against LeBron and the Cavs at home on Thursday. 
Utah is no opponent you can let your guard down against these days, either. The Jazz are coming into their own on defense, which they said began to come together during a pre-holiday-season East Coast road trip. Utah seems to be getting more comfortable all the time with coach Quin Snyder's defensive schemes since that trip and it's showing every game. 
The Jazz held two opponents to fewer than 80 points in the 10 games since that road trip ended and allowed only three opponents to top 100 points during that span. I think the Lakers are in for a tough one here. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on FLORIDA. SEC conference season has sort of become Gator season and it's hard not to love Florida now that league play has begun. 
The Gators are 2-0 straight up and against the spread since SEC play began and they bring a school record of 23 straight conference wins into tonight's home tilt with Auburn. They're also 7-1 against the spread in their last eight conference games and it seems oddsmakers just can't keep up with Billy Donovan's club in Southeastern contests.
The Gators started the season with a bit of a bump, going 3-4 to open the year. But Donovan said that was all part of the growing process and the Gators are in a much better spot now.  
“I think, in my opinion for this team was the fact that our schedule was so challenging. We were forced to deal with the truth, we were forced to grow, we were forced to confront things we need to get better at,” he said this week. 
The Gators are playing better as a team overall and had 14 assists against South Carolina to open SEC play followed by 19 assists in a romp over Miss State after that. I think we'll see that trend continue upward as the Gators roll on and cover this big spread tonight. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on VILLANOVA. The Wildcats are smoking hot with their shooting right now and I believe make a great play tonight against a team that tries to win in shootouts. 
Xavier doesn't have the team defensive capabilities - especially on the road - to slow Nova down with the Musketeers allowing a porous 76.5 points away from home this year. And although Xavier is the top scoring team in the Big East, I really don't think they want to get into a gunslinger's match with Villanova right now. 
Nova has far more depth, boasting five players who average double digits this season and two more who score at least 7.8 points per game. The Wildcats have 171 points over their last two games combined and shot at least 53 percent from field goal range and at least 43 percent from 3-point land in each game. 
I don't think anyone is slowing down Nova right now - especially on home court. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

The Bulls have a chance to get even with their Eastern Conference rivals, the Washington Wizards Wednesday. The Wizards are coming off a hard-fought victory over the defending champion San Antonio Spurs at home Tuesday, and traveled overnight to the Windy City for this second half of back-to-back games.

Washington has shown that it’s susceptible to the letdown spot a few times this season. The Wizards faced a tough test in Oklahoma City two weeks ago, then fell to the Spurs the following night. Washington also followed a victory against Chicago with a flat outing against the Atlanta Hawks last week. Coming off a notable win against the reigning NBA title holders and making a quick trip to Chicago puts this team in another tough spot Wednesday.

The Bulls will be out for revenge after taking a one-sided 120-89 loss to Washington last week. Chicago is also looking to get on track after an embarrassing home loss to the Orlando Magic Monday night. Expect a much more stout effort from the Bulls defensively Wednesday, after watching Orlando score 121 points and Washington pile up 120 in their recent win over Chicago.

The Wizards ripe for the letdown in a tough back-to-back spot and the Bulls’ seeking to avenge a one-sided defeat is why I’m playing on Chicago as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Boston Celtics as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday.

The Celtics host the high-flying Atlanta Hawks, who bring a nine-game winning streak into Wednesday’s road date. The Hawks have covered the spread in each of those nine outings but the basketball markets are catching up to Atlanta and the value is being sucked out of its nightly odds. Wednesday’s game in Beantown is also a very tough spot, even for a team as hot as the Hawks.

Atlanta picked up win No. 9 over Philadelphia Tuesday. The Hawks take the court for the second night of back-to-back games against a Boston offense that likes to press the tempo, running the second fastest pace in the NBA at 99.6 points per 100 possessions. The Celtics will be able to take advantage of a fatigued Atlanta team that doesn’t look down its bench too often, averaging 16.4 minutes for reserves – among the lowest in the NBA.

On top of the tough task of playing back-to-back nights, the Hawks also run the risk of looking ahead to the final two road games of this current trip. Atlanta wraps up in Toronto and Chicago, two teams it will be jockeying with for playoff position in the Eastern Conference postseason picture. Boston is coming off a big home win against the New Orleans Pelicans and presents solid value as the home side Wednesday night.

An unfocused Hawks side with tired legs going against the Celtics up-tempo attack is why I’m playing on Boston as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Tennessee Volunteers as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

The Volunteers are chomping at the bit to get back on the court after a sluggish loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide last time out. Tennessee hosts the red-hot Arkansas Razorback back, and oddsmakers are being very generous in Knoxville.

We see great value with the Vols at home Tuesday. The home team has covered in four of the last five meeting between these SEC rivals and the underdog has been a profitable 10-4 ATS in the previous 14 clashes between Arkansas and Tennessee.

Arkansas has been able to put up some big numbers to start the season, ranking seventh in the country in scoring. However, the Hogs defense hasn’t been nearly as efficient – especially away from home. The Razorbacks are giving up 77.5 points per game to host teams heading into this contest.

Tennessee is trying to shake itself out of an offensive funk with a new look. Head coach Donnie Tyndall told the media he plans on tinkering with his starting lineup in order to put more experience on the floor during these tight SEC matchups.

Tyndall is trying to find other outlets on offense besides Josh Richardson, who has taken the brunt of opponents’ defensive attention. Junior forward Derek Reese is expected to get more minutes and will help lighten the scoring burden on Richardson.

The Razorbacks' defensive woes on the road and the Volunteers looking to jump start their scoring at home is why I’m playing on Tennessee as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Brooklyn Nets as a 10* Monday.

Brooklyn hosts the Houston Rockets Monday, who are stacking the frequent flyer miles recently. Houston was in New York to play the Knicks Thursday, then had to fly home for a game against the Utah Jazz Saturday, before heading back to the Big Apple to face the Nets.

Brooklyn hopes to catch a jet-lagged Rockets squad Monday night. Houston has played five of its last seven away from home and isn’t nearly as tough defensively on the road, allowing foes to average 101.5 points per road game compared to just 92.4 points against inside the Toyota Center.

The Nets have dropped five straight but remain competitive most nights thanks to their controlled pace and stingy defense. Brooklyn has limited opponents to just over 92 points per game in this five-game slide. The Nets can throw some big bodies at the Rockets, keeping center Dwight Howard busy with the combo of Mason Plumlee and Brook Lopez down low. Not only are those two big men physical on the defensive end but they’re helping pick up the slack on offense.

Brooklyn’s offense plays a much slower pace than Houston, averaging 94.3 points per 100 possessions. The Nets can lure the Rockets into a methodical half-court game if they can take care of the basketball. Houston thrives on transitioning off turnovers, and Brooklyn can’t allow those mistakes to end up as easy buckets.

The Rockets’ frantic travel schedule and Brooklyn’s underrated defense is why I’m playing on Brooklyn as a 10* Monday.