Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on DETROIT (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pistons are going to be motivated to avoid the season sweep. I believe that they're catching the Bucks at the right time. Milwaukee had been hot but got cooled off its last game. Though the Bucks have been tough off a road loss, they've got a revenge game against Toronto on deck and I feel it may be easy to look past Detroit. That's going to prove costly though as the Pistons have Drummond back now and he's got a game under his belt. That makes them a far stronger team, as the combination of Griffin and Drummond is formidable. The Pistons are back home, after three straight on the road. While they're 4-4 SU their last eight overall, three of the four losses came by six or less. They're 16-7-1 ATS their last 24, off three straight on the road and 3-0 ATS their last three when listed as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 range. Expect a big effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover this evening. 

I'm playing on INDIANA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Warriors have been on an impressive run. They're at the end of a 5-game road trip here though; off their big win at Boston and with big home games against the likes of Philadelphia, LA and San Antonio on deck, it should be easy to suffer a slight letdown against an Indiana team missing Oladipo. That'll prove costly though as the Pacers are still capable and still playing hard. They're especially tough to beat here at Indiana. Indeed, they're 12-2 here since the start of December, 3-0 their last three. Their 18-6 home record is actually better than the Warriors' 17-8 road mark. With the Pacers, who beat the Warriors both meetings last season, at 17-5 ATS the last 22 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 range, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on NOTRE DAME (10* MAIN EVENT). Needless to say, Duke has some impressive players. That said, I feel that the Blue Devils are laying too many points here. Duke's last five games have been decided by an average of seven points, none of those by more than 15. The Irish, 14-7-1 ATS the last 22 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 150s, got blown out by Virginia last time out. That was their first loss by more than 15 all season though and they're going to be highly motivated to avoid a repeat performance. It hasn't happened often over the years but, if we go back we find that the Irish are 2-0 ATS when off a home loss of 20 or more. Expect them to improve on those stats with their best effort this evening. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). The Seminoles have shown no reason to believe that they can cover as road favorites. In fact, they're 0-10-1 ATS the last 11 times that they were road favorites, or pick'em. Thats ugly. That includes an 0-6-1 ATS mark as road favorites of six or less, five of those resulting in outright losses. The Hurricanes hung tough at Tallahassee a couple of weeks ago, losing by six as 10-point underdogs. They're 10-3 ATS (12-1 SU!) the last 13 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. They're also 6-2 SU/ATS the last eight times that they were off b2b conference losses, 2-0 ATS this season. Expect them to bounce back with a big effort en route to AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on DENVER (10* GAME OF MONTH). I successfully played against the Nuggets recently. However, that was at Utah. Now, they're playing at home, where they've been nearly unbeatable. They already bounced back from the Utah loss by returning home and crusing the Suns by 37 points last night. Note that the Nuggets are 6-1 SU, when playing the second of b2b game and that last night's game was not exactly taxing. The Nuggets are now 21-4 here, 17-8 against the number. Thats the best home record in the West. The 76'ers, meanwhile, are 11-12 on the road. They've had Embid for most of those games, too. He's out tonight though. Needless to say, thats a big loss. Making matters worse, Butler saw a specialist for his wrist in LA yesterday and is considered doubtful, as I write this. The 76ers swept the Nuggets last season. Catching them short-handed, expect the Nuggets to get some payback with a double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on MISS. STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The SEC is deep and full of talented teams. These two are among them. Auburn has beaten the Bulldogs each of the past two seasons. While this season's Tigers are another solid team, I expect an experienced MSU team, playing on its home floor, to rise to the occasion and get some payback. Auburn is mediocre on the road. The Bulldogs are 10-1 on this floor, 29-5 the past few seasons. They brought more back from last year than did Auburn and I expect that to be evident here. Homecourt proves the difference. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO (3* VIOLATOR). The Wizards eked out a cover against the Warriors last night, losing by eight as a 9-point dog. After hosting the champs, don't be surprised when they experience a letdown, for a road game against the Magic the next night. While the Wizards were fighting hard, the Magic had yesterday off. The home team has already taken both meetings, the Magic winning by nine here at Orlando. (The Magic also won the previous game here, last spring, by nine.) While the Magic are 3-4 their last seven, they've been competitive in all four of the losses and they scored a minimum of 105 points in all seven of those games. Schedule in their favor, expect them to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off five or more consecutive games where they scored 105 or more points. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN KENTUCKY (10* VIOLATOR). The Norse won both meetings last year. For the game here, they were laying -16.5 points. This season, with the line having come from its opener adding to the value, we're getting them at a considerably lower number. The Norse are undefeated at home this season and they're coming in hot. This season's 11-0 record brings them to 35-4 on this floor the past 2+ years. The Norse are going to be put up a big number tonight. They've scored 73 or more in six or their last seven, 91 and 82 their last two games. Note that they're 9-3-1 ATS (10-3 SU) the past 13 times that they were off b2b games where they scored 80 or more. The Phoenix have allowed 76 or more points in 10 straight games, 80 or more in all but one of those. For the season, they allow an obscene 87.6 ppg on the road. The defensively-challenged Phoenix have played two road games in 2019. Both resulted in double-digit losses. Expect more of the same here. 

I'm playing on UTAH (10* MAIN EVENT). Homecourt always means a lot to both of these teams and it always means a lot when they face each other. Including a 103-88 win on Nov. 3rd, the Nuggets are a perfect 5-0 the past five times that they hosted the Jazz. Conversely, with a 106-77 destruction a few weeks later, on 11/28, the Jazz are a perfect 7-0 the past seven times that the hosted the Nuggets. All seven wins came by a minimum of four points. This season, the Nuggets are a dominating 20-4 at home but a modest 11-10 on the road. The Jazz are 13-13 on the road but 13-9 at home. Utah arguably needs this game more. Expect a huge effort from the Jazz and homecourt again ultimately proving the difference. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE. Winless in 2019, the Buckeyes badly need this one. I expect them to rise to the occasion and get it. Note that the Buckeyes are 3-1 ATS the past four times that they were listed as home underdogs, or pick'em. Lets not forget that they're 37-11 on this floor the past 2+ seasons. As of this writing, most books have the O/U line at 140.5. I mention that as Purdue is just 6-16 ATS (5-17 SU!) the past 22 times it played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range, 1-4 ATS their last five in that situation. Last season's games were both decided by a single point, each time winning once. Over recent years, the Buckeyes have dominated the Boilermakers though, particularly here in Columbus. This one may well come down to the wire, too. In the end, look for the Buckeyes to be the team which emerges victorious. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Suns gave the T-Wolves all they could handle a couple of days ago, at Minnesota. The Wolves still won though and now we're getting them at a far lower line, due to the venue. However, with a 7-17 record here, homecourt doesn't mean much to the Suns though. The Wolves are still fighting for a playoff spot while the Suns are destined for the lottery. They're expected to be without Ayton (currently doubtful) here, made worse by the possible (likely?) absence of Richaun Homels, which is going to mean Towns is destined for a field day. Expect an inspired effort from the Wolves, as they improve to 7-1 ATS, after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their previous six games.

'm playing on EASTERN MICHIGAN (10* VIOLATOR). Bowling Green comes in on an impressive winning streak. However, I believe that Eastern Michigan opened as the favorite for good reason and I expect the Falcons' run to come to an end here. After losing a pair of OT games against the Falcons last season, the Eagles have had this one circled. This is an experienced team which brought back most of last year's players; they haven't forgotten. Keep in mind that many picked the Eagles to finish near the top of the MAC West and the Falcons to finish in, or near, the basement of the East. The Eagles won their last game on this floor by a score of 95-61. Expect another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The champs have a score to settle. You may recall that the Lakers embarrassed them on National TV on Christmas Day, at Oracle. Payback is indeed in order. While the Warriors, who now have Cousins in the lineup, are healthy, the Lakers are still without Lebron. The Lakers may still be feeling the effects off a tough 4-point OT loss at Houston, on Saturday. Meanwhile, off seven straight wins, the Warriors come in with plenty of momentum. Expect them to be all business here, avenging the earlier loss in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on VT (10* BEST BET). While the Hokies came up short against Virginia, tonight represents another opportunity for a marquee ACC victory. I expect them to make the most of it. Coach Buzz William had this to say: "In a demented way, when you get your brain beat in, it kind of re-centers you or calibrates you. And then to have a chance to go right back and do it again ... " The Heels are going to want to play at a face pace and thats going to open up plenty of looks for Tech's dangerous outside shooters. The Hokies already bounced back from the Virginia loss by beating up on Wake Forest Saturday. They've been money (10-1 ATS the L11!) when playing with one or less day's rest and I expect a highly motivated effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover this evening.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played against the Suns yesterday and this is an excellent spot to go against them once again. While the Suns were busy getting blown out at Charlotte, the Wolves had yesterday off. They're going to be in an angry mood, too. Not only did they lose by eight at Phoenix last month but they're off b2b losses, a blowout loss followed by a close one. The Wolves are 2-0 SU/ATS when off a home loss off three or less, 7-4 ATS their last 11 in that situation. They're also 6-2 ATS after failing to cover in two or more consecutive games. These same two teams will face each other, at Phoenix, in two days. Knowing this to be the case, expect the rested, revenge-minded T-Wolves to take care of business in decisive fashion. 

I'm playing on KC (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). Playing at home, the Patriots managed a 43-40 win when these teams met in the shootout. On a chilly Sunday at Arrowhead, I expect the Chiefs to have their revenge. They're saying this will likely be the coldest playoff game ever played here. I expect that to benefit the hard-hitting home team. We know about Mahomes and the offense; the Chiefs 35.1 ppg was #1 in the NFL. (New England ranked 4th at 28.1 ppg.) However, I also really liked what I saw from the Chiefs' defense last week, as they absolutely dominated Luck and the Colts. The Pats were 0-3 SU/ATS on the road this season, when the O/U line was 49.5 or greater. The Chiefs, 4-2 ATS as home favorites of -3 or less, got the playoff monkey off their backs last week. Demons exorcised, expect them to ride the positive momentum right into the Super Bowl. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. Obviously, these are both excellent teams. That said, playing at home, where they already defeated these same Rams by 10, I expect the Saints to have the edge. Brees may be getting older but he's only gotten better the past couple of seasons. He's been here before. He doesn't get phased. He knows another Super Bowl on his resume puts him in the discussion with the all-time best. Brees is backed by a strong 2-headed ground attack and he's throwing to the best receiver in Saints history. Brees also has an aggressive coach who knows how to win. Indeed, the Brees/Payton doesn't lose home playoff games. Period. The Saints are 6-0 here in playoff games with the combination of Payton/Brees running the show. Michael Thomas had this to say of Payton: "When Coach pushes his chips all in, we've got to push our chips all in right with him, and that’s how you win games." Saints wideout Michael Thomas said. I really like the way the Saints rallied last week and feel thats the type of win that can and will provide them with positive momentum and propel them to the Super Bowl. Saints advance, covering the small number along the way.

BONUS FIRST HALF PLAY: I'm playing NEW ORLEANS on the money-line for the first half (8*). Obviously, these are both excellent teams. That said, playing at home, where they already defeated these same Rams by 10, I expect the Saints to have the edge. Brees may be getting older but he's only gotten better the past couple of seasons. He's been here before. He doesn't get phased. He knows another Super Bowl on his resume puts him in the discussion with the all-time best. Brees is backed by a strong 2-headed ground attack and he's throwing to the best receiver in Saints history. Brees also has an aggressive coach who knows how to win. Indeed, the Brees/Payton doesn't lose home playoff games. Period. The Saints are 6-0 here in playoff games with the combination of Payton/Brees running the show. Michael Thomas had this to say of Payton: "When Coach pushes his chips all in, we've got to push our chips all in right with him, and that’s how you win games." Saints wideout Michael Thomas said. I really like the way the Saints rallied last week and feel thats the type of win that can and will provide them with positive momentum right from the opening kickoff Sunday afternoon. The Saints had their "wake-up call" against the Eagles and I expect a much quicker start here. Expect them to be leading at the break. 

I'm playing on TEXAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Sooners may currently have the higher national ranking but I believe that the Longhorns are favored for good reason. The Sooners, who lost by seven at Texas Tech last time on the road, are 0-2 ATS the last two times that they were road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. Going back further finds them at 15-23-1 ATS their last 39 in that role. Last time out, the Sooners were upset by K-State. They're 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were off an upset loss in Big 12 play, 0-3 ATS their last three when off a double-digit loss as a favorite. Off three straight close losses, look for Longhorns to finally break through for a victory, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* VIOLATOR). After losing three straight, the Hornets have rebounded with b2b blowout wins. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into today's game. Note that the Hornets are 4-2 ATS as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range and also 4-2 ATS when off a win of 15 or more points. The Suns are 0-2 to start their road trip and they've got the front end of a home-and-home with Minnesota on deck tomorrow. After getting blown out, they lost by just three last time out. The close losses can often be even tougher to bounce back from; the Suns are just 2-5 ATS off a loss by six or less, 14-23 ATS in that situation the past 2+ seasons. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* BEST BET). The Magic are playing well right now. Sure, they lost last time out. However, that was on the road and they took the Pistons to OT. Their last two home games, the Magic actually beaten the Rockets and Celtics. Going back further finds them at 4-0 SU/ATS their last four games here. Granted, the Nets are also playing well. In fact, they too, just defeated the Celtics and Rockets. Though they had yesterday off, that Houston win on Thursday may have taken an extra toll, a 145-142 OT thriller. An emotional and/or physical letdown could well be in order. Note that the Nets are only 2-5 SU/ATS off a win by three or less. They're also 2-7 ATS after having covered three of their previous four games. I think its important to note that these teams will meet in Brooklyn in less than a week. The Magic know this and know that they need to take care of business on their home floor. They've had excellent success against the Atlantic Division and it continues tonight. 

I'm playing FLORIDA on the puck-line. (10* PERS FAV, +1.5 goals.) The Leafs are off a big win at Tampa less than 24 hours ago. Off that victory, I expect them to have their hands full against a determined Panther team tonight. These teams have already met twice this season. The home team won both meetings, the game here finishing with a 4-3 final score. Speaking of close games, six of the past seven meetings between these teams, including each of the past three here at Florida, have been decided by a single goal. The Panthers are 4-0 the last four times that they hosted the Leafs. Since the start of 2014, they'd be 10-1 in 11 meetings here against the Leafs, if getting an extra +1.5 goals in each. Schedule in their favor, expect AT LEAST a puck-line cover. 

I'm playing on ASU (10* GAME OF THE YEAR). The favorite is 6-2 ATS the last eight times that these teams have faced each other and I expect those stats to improve here. Indeed, this is a case of the Beavers being in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Sun Devils just got upset by the Cardinal, at Stanford, in their last game. Prior to that, they'd won b2b games by double-digits. The last time that they were off a loss, the Sun Devils responded with a 22-point win over Colorado. Including that result, ASU is 7-2 ATS the past nine times it was off a double-digit Pac-12 loss. Over the years, the Beavers are just 12-20 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. They're also 3-7 ATS (2-8 SU) the past 10 times that they were off three or more consecutive victories. Lay the points and expect a relatively decisive win for the home team. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* PERS FAV). These teams just faced each other, at Sacramento, on Saturday. The Kings won by seven. Not surprising, given that Charlotte is just 6-15 on the road. Playing on their home floor, where they're a far better 14-8, I expect the revenge-minded Hornets to get some payback on Thursday. Note that the Hornets are 6-2 ATS their past eight when attempting to avenge a 'same season' loss. Charlotte was laying -10.5 for last season's meeting here. Things have changed but not that much. Payback time!

I'm playing BUFFALO on the puck-line. (10* PERS FAV, +1.5 goals) With the Flames listed as heavy money-line favorites, we're able to get an extra +1.5 goals with the visitors for a relatively reasonable price. While I like Buffalo's chances of an outright win, the value of that extra +1.5 goals is huge. I successfully played against the Sabres last time out. They were blown out 7-2, at Edmonton. Off that loss, their third third straight, I expect the Sabres to respond with a much better effort on Wednesday. Buffalo's Evan Rodrigues had this to say of the loss at Edmonton: "... this is one of those games that gives you a little bit of an eyeopener." Its true that the Sabres are just 3-8 their last 11. However, four of those eight losses came by a single goal. In other words, they'd be 7-4 if getting an extra +1.5 goals in each of those. As for the Flames, they won in a blowout last time out. However, each of their previous three wins had all come by a single goal. Speaking of 1-goal games, this season's earlier meeting, at Buffalo, resulted in a 2-1 final. Additionally, the Sabres' most recent visit here at Calgary, which came last January, also finished with a 2-1 final. Expect another close one, the Sabres earning AT LEAST the "puck-line cover." 

I'm playing on LA SALLE (10* ANNIHILATOR). The home team has won and covered seven straight when these teams have faced each other. In six of those seven cases, including each of the past five, the home team has won by double-digits. Going back further finds the favorite at 20-6 ATS the past 26 times that these teams have gotten together. I expect homecourt to again prove the different. The Colonials are off b2b losses, most recently losing by 20 against Richmond. The Explorers are stepping down in class here, after three straight against more difficult opponents, games where they were underdogs. They played well in those games. Now, they're back in the role of favorites, a role which has seen them go 2-1 ATS. While they've covered a few this season, the Colonials are still just 9-19 ATS on the road the past 2+ seasons. The ugly home loss against Richmond exposed some issues. It was already going to be a long year, the loss of Arnoldo Toro in December figures to make it a lot worse. Expect another double-digit win for the home team. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). While the Thunder have had a couple of days off, I feel that its going to be easy for them to look past the Hawks tonight. Note that OKC is just 4-6 ATS its last 10 as a road favorite in the -6.5 to -12 range. The Thunder are off a home-and-home split with the Spurs and they've got the Lakers on deck Thursday, a game which could mark Lebron's return. Looking past the Hawks will prove costly though, as Atlanta continues to play hard. The Hawks have quietly won four of their past six home games and only one of those two losses came by more than eight points. In fact, they even recently won a road game at Philadelphia. The Hawks had yesterday off and they don't play for a few days after this. Their full focus will be on the Thunder. The Hawks have scored 100 or more in six straight and 114 or more in each of their last two. They're 18-8 ATS the last 26 times that they'd scored 110 or more in b2b games and I expect AT LEAST another cover this evening. 

I'm playing on MISS. STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Gators got outscored by a 34-12 margin in terms of "points-in-the-paint," in Saturday's double-digit loss against Tennessee. The Gators' lack of dominant post players is going to hurt them again tonight, as they figure to have to have no answer for 6-11 Holman. The Gators always seem like an attractive underdog, given their program's history. However, they're just 3-11 ATS when getting points the past 2+ seasons. The Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS the past 12 times that they were off b2b SEC losses. Taking advantage of their superior inside game, expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Hornets are playing the final games of a road trip. Its been an unsuccessful trip and they're determined to close it with a victory. While that may or may not happen, I do expect their very best effort to lead to AT LEAST a cover. The Hornets have some extra motivation in that Tony Parker is returning "home." Additionally and perhaps more importantly, this is also Coach Borrego's first game against his former mentor, Popovich. While they had yesterday off, the Spurs may still be feeling the effects of Saturday's showdown at OKC. Note that the Spurs are just 1-3 ATS this season, as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. Meanwhile, the Hornets are 6-2 ATS when having lost three of their previous four. In a game which figures to have some extra emotion, expect the Hornets to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (10* BEST BET). The Panthers have been far better at the betting window this season than the Seminoles. Pittsburgh checks in with an 11-4 ATS record. FSU is just 6-10 ATS. I like how this one sets up for the Panthers. The Noles are off a great game against Duke and deserve a ton of credit for their effort. Unfortunately, despite leaving it all on the floor and having a chance to win, they ultimately came up a bucket short. That's going to take a toll on them here. Note that FSU is just 7-14 ATS its last 21 on the road and that includes an 0-8 ATS record as road favorites, or when in a pick'em spot. The Noles were favored by -6.5 or -7 points the last time that they visited here, coming here with a top-20 ranking. Yet, the Panthers won by double-digits. Catching their guests off the heartbreaker vs. Duke, don't be surprised when the Panthers deliver another upset tonight. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* BEST BET). The Nuggets won by a point when these teams met in late November, at Portland. At the time, the Nuggets were red hot, in the midst of a 7-game winning streak, while while Blazers were in the middle of a 1-6 skid. Things set up much differently this time. While the Nuggets have still been playing well,  they're now in a tough scheduling spot, which was not the case for the earlier meeting. Denver played last night at Phoenix and will now be playing its third game in the past four days, their fifth game in the past seven. Meanwhile, the rested Blazers are now 6-1 their last seven, instead of 1-6, as was the case earlier. The Blazers are 12-6 ATS their last 18 in the revenge role and that includes a 2-0 ATS mark when attempting to avenge a loss of three or fewer points. Schedule in their favor, expect the Blazers to improve on those stats Sunday evening.

I'm playing on KC (10* GAME OF WEEK). I'm well aware that the Chiefs haven't historically fared too well in the playoffs. Some of you may remember our play in the game when the Colts shocked the Chiefs in 2014, rallying from a huge deficit to win 45-44. More of you will recall that I successfully backed the underdog Titans against KC in last year's playoffs. (Tennessee rallied in the 4th quarter for the outright win.) I believe that this year's team is different though. Better. Mahomes took the offense to an entirely different level and the team comes in extremely confident as a result. Note that the Colts, who are just 2-7 ATS the last nine times that they were off two or more consecutive ATS wins, average 23.9 ppg on the road. Meanwhile, the Chiefs average 32.4 ppg at home. Some times, teams need to lose before they can learn to win. In the Chiefs' case, I believe that they've gone through that and are now ready to win. They come in on a mission and are ready to make things right. While the Colts will be playing their third road game in three weeks, the bye week figures to have served the Chiefs very well. Expect them to be exoricse some of their playoff demons, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). Wednesday's game against the Pacers was a big one for the Celtics. Not only are the Pacers ahead of the Celtics in the overall Eastern Conference standings but the Pacers had also beaten the Celtics three straight times, most recently a 1-point game back in early November. While the Celtics were busy playing that 'big game,' the Heat had Wednesday off. The last time that the Celtics played the second of b2b games, they lost by nine, at Detroit. The Heat know that four of their next five come on the road, one of those road games coming at Boston. In other words, they better take care of business here. They've beaten the Celtics twice in a row. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to do so again Thursday. 

I'm playing on WILLIAM & MARY (10* BEST BET). The home team won both meetings last season; the home team is now 11-5 ATS the last 16 in the series. I expect homecourt to again prove the difference. While Hofstra checks in on an extended winning streak and with the much better record overall, thats partly due to William & Mary having played a more difficult schedule. Since hitting conference play, the Tribe have picked up their game. The Tribe's Justin Pierce missed last game and is currently questionable, as of this writing. He's an important player and William & Mary is hopeful to have him available. Even without him, Nathan Knight gives them an average of 24 points and 12 boards per game, while adding an average of five assists and a couple of steals. Matt Milon adds 19 points and seven boards per game while Chase Audige chips in another 13/5. In other words, this team still has plenty of weapons. William & Mary is 4-1 ATS its past five as a home underdog or pick'em. This is a huge game for them and I expect AT LEAST another cover. 

I'm playing on UC RIVERSIDE (10* BEST BET). The road team had success in this series last season but I expect homecourt to prove significant tonight. Riverside opened as -2 point favorite but by morning the line had come down a bit, providing us with some additional value on the Highlanders. I believe that they're catching the Matadors, who are off b2b hard fought and demoralizing losses, at the right time. Two games ago, the (+14.5) Matadors had a 19-point lead, at San Diego State, with 15 minutes to play. Yet, they allowed the Aztecs to come back and beat them. Next game, the (+7.5 or +8) Matadors lost in OT, against Yale. That's two games in a row, where they had a real chance to score an upset, only to come up short. Those type of losses take a toll and I expect them to catch up with the Matadors tonight. Note that the Matadors are now 0-15 SU (5-10 ATS) the last 15 times that they were off a SU loss where they covered. The Highlanders, on the other hand, come in full of confidence, as they're off a 112-47 "feel-good" blowout win to start the year. Expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game, en route to the win and cover. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA (10* GAME OF MONTH). I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. In 2017, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' Last season, I switched things up, winning with both Alabama and the 'under.' (Alabama won 24-6.) This year, I'm coming right back with the Tide. Obviously, these are both excellent teams, extremely well-coached, strong on both sides of the ball. I think Alabama is just a bit stronger though. The Tide got their wake-up call vs. the Sooners and thats going to serve them well here. They know they need to be better and they will be. The Tide are 3-0 ATS the past three times that they both scored and allowed 30 or more points in their previous game. During that span, they're also 5-1 ATS when off of two or more consecutive ATS losses. Like last year, expect them to pull away for another win and cover. 

I'm playing on DETROIT (10* BEST BET). The Pistons fought hard last game and were within a point in the closing seconds. Ultimately, they lost by five vs. the Jazz, failing to cover by a bucket. Even with that result, however, they're a healthy 6-3 ATS against Western Conference opponents. I expect them to improve on those stats here. True, the Spurs are off four straight wins, the last three of those coming at home. They've won just three of their past nine road games though and one of those victories came by a single point, at Chicago. Its also worth noting that the Spurs are just 4-8 ATS the past 12 times that they were coming off three or more consecutive home wins and just 9-20 ATS, during the same span, when off four consecutive victories overall. Overall, San Antonio is 17-5 at home but 6-12 on the road. With a 10-11 home record, the Pistons can get back to .500 here with a win. They were five point underdogs against the Spurs here last season yet won by 14 points. Don't be surprised by another upset tonight. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Nets won a close one here a few weeks ago, eking out a 3-point win. The Bulls are healthier now than they've been all season and thats translated to a 5-2 ATS mark their last seven. This afternoon's game provides a great opportunity to break through with an outright win. The Nets are banged-up themselves, missing the likes of LeVert, Crabbe and Hollis-Jefferson. After this game, the Bulls get a couple of days off before heading out on a West Coast road trip. They very nearly beat Indiana last time out and badly want a victory before hitting the road. Unlike the Bulls, the Nets have a big game tomorrow - the first of two, in a one week span, against the Celtics. That may make it easy to look past the Bulls. That'll prove costly though; the Bulls are 9-4 ATS off a home loss and 3-0 ATS off two or more consecutive home losses. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on DALLAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). I have a lot of respect for Wilson, Carroll and the Seahawks. With wins in six of their last seven, they've been hot, too. Thats been a grueling stretch though. Not only have the Hawks been back and forth from coast to coast, they've gotten quite banged-up in the process. Keep in mind that this team has been suffering key personnel losses each of the past few offseasons. While the Hawks won the earlier meeting back in September, that was at Seattle. Well known for their strong home field advantage, the Hawks were 6-2 at Seattle. However, they were just 4-4 on the road. The Cowboys, just 3-5 on the road, were a dominant 7-1 here at Dallas. While the Hawks are 6-11 ATS the past 2+ seasons off a home win, the Cowboys are 9-3 ATS off a road win. Expect homefield to prove the difference, the Cowboys improving to 3-0 ATS the last three times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. 

I'm playing on DETROIT (10* BEST BET). Given the venue and schedule, I believe we're getting excellent value with the Pistons. While Detroit had the past couple of days off, the Jazz were busy beating Cleveland yesterday. Though that may not have been the most taxing game, the Jazz are still just 2-4 SU/ATS when playing the second of b2b games. Meanwhile, the Pistons are 6-2 ATS when playing with two day's rest, 18-11 ATS the past 2+ seasons. Even with last night's win, they're still only 11-12 on the road; the Pistons are 11-8 at home. The Pistons are 6-2 ATS against Western Conference teams, 40-26 ATS the past couple of seasons. Expect at least another cover. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Colts came through when they needed to against the Titans, a 33-17 victory. Taking on the Texans figures to be far more difficult. This Houston team can do it all. A highly capable QB with one of the most dominant receivers in the game. A running game which ranks #8 in the NFL. An outstanding defense which tied for #4 in the league, in terms of points allowed per game, one which shuts down opposing running games and forces teams to try and beat them through the air. While the road team did manage to win both regular season meetings, home field is indeed significant to both teams. The Colts are 4-4 on the road, the Texans are 6-2 at home. The Colts are 1-3 ATS their last four, as road underdogs of three or less. During that span, they're also just 3-7 ATS after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game. Bottom line: I believe that the Texans are the more complete team and that getting them here at Houston, laying less than a field goal, is offering excellent value. Expect them to advance, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Even some diehard Warrior fans might be skeptical of laying this many points against Harden and the Rockets. Off b2b double-digit wins, I believe that the champs are finally back in the groove though. The calendar having flipped to 2019, they're going to use tonight's game to demonstrate that. The Rockets continue to be without Paul. Eric Gordon, who had contributed double-digits in scoring in his last seven straight games, 17 or more in his last five, normally logs heavy minutes in Paul's absence. However, he's out, too. Auston Rivers and James Ennis aren't likely to provide Harden with enough secondary scoring to keep up with Curry, Durant, Thompson and co. The Rockets won big when these teams met at Houston earlier. Expect the Warriors, who closed out the year by scoring 132 at Phoenix, to get some payback, improving to 5-0 ATS after scoring 130 or more in their previous game. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). While I like the Hurricanes' chances of winning this one outright, in what could be a close one,  I'm happy to grab the points. After going through a tough stretch, the Canes are playing better. Though they haven't been covering, they enter this game off of three straight confidence-building victories. The Wolfpack are just 19-31 ATS the past 50 times that they were listed as road favorites or pick'em, 0-3 ATS their last three in that role. They've only played one true road game this season and that resulted in a loss. They're just 6-14 SU their last 20 on the road. Both last season's meetings were close, Miami winning each by five points. Factoring in those results, the underdog is 10-3-2 ATS the past 15 meetings in this series. Expect at least another cover for the underdog this evening.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* PERS FAV). While the Hornets had yesterday off, the Magic are off a close, hard-fought win against Detroit. They're now playing their third game in four days. They've dropped all three road games, when having played the previous day. The Hornets, who hammered Orlando by 32 earlier in the season, lost a close one at Washington on Saturday, their third loss (SU and ATS) in the last four games. They're 8-2 ATS off a loss by six points or less, 4-0 ATS after having dropped three of their last four. Note that the Hornets' recent losses have come on the road. They've won their last three at home by double-digits. Schedule in their favor, expect another one-sided win tonight. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE (10* GAME OF WEEK). This game got moved to the primetime slot because there's so much on the line. While Mariota is reportedly less than 100%, he's expected to warmup with the intention of playing. In the event he doesn't go, Gabbert is a highly capable backup. He beat the Texans when called upon earlier in the year. Last week, he relieved Mariota and led the Titans to a comeback win against the Redskins. Note that was a Saturday game, giving the Titans an extra day of prep time, compared to the Colts who eked out a 1-point win on Sunday. Speaking of close games, the Colts last road game resulted in a 3-point win. Even with that victory, they've won just two of their last six on the road; the only win by more than a field goal came at Oakland. While the Colts won big in the earlier meeting, that was at Indianapolis and it was before the Tennessee ground game got going. Whether its Mariota or Gabbert behind center, the Titans' QB will have the luxury of handing off to a red hot running back. Derrick Henry has been nearly unstoppable, piling up an 81/532/8 stat line over the past month. Don't be surprised when this one comes down to the wire, the Titans improving to 5-0 ATS the last five times that they attempted to avenge a loss where they'd allowed 35 or more points. 

I'm playing on NOTRE DAME (10* GAME OF YEAR). Having successfully played against the Irish in the past, I'm well aware that they haven't always come through when forced to step up and take on elite teams in bowl games. That said, I believe that this year's team is different. While I absolutely respect the Tigers, also a great team, I believe that the Irish can (and will) absolutely compete the entire way. This is a team without a weakness. They brought back a ton of experience from the team which rallied to beat LSU on New Year's Day last year. That was the first New Year's Day win for the Irish since 1994. Having achieved that goal, this team is hungry for more. They've won with defense. They've won with offense. They've won in blowouts and they've shown an ability to win close games. Speaking of close games, you may recall these teams playing a few years ago, at Death Valley. The Tigers had to hang on to win by only two points. While Clemson was already really good, this year's Notre Dame is arguably better than that one. The Tigers have been able to dominate on the ground against weak rush defenses. However, thre teams ranked in the top 30 against the run were able to slow down Clemson. I expect the Irish, who have the best defense that the Tigers will have seen, to have success against the Tiger run game, forcing them to the air. Don't be surprised when this one isn't decided until the final play, the "luck of the Irish," shining on Notre Dame.  

I'm playing on UC DAVIS (10* GAME OF WEEK). If you just looked at the records, you'd think that the Aggies (3-8 and 0-5 on the road) would have no chance. However, a closer look shows that Cal Davis has played road games at venues like Arizona, Northern Illinois, Indiana and Arkansas while hosting the likes of San Francisco. In other words, its been a challenging schedule and the sub-500 record isn't surprising. Those tough road games will work in their favor though; they very nearly won at Arizona (2-point loss) last time out and won't be intimidated here. While the Lions are a solid team, they did lose by seven at UC Riverside last time out. Only one of their last five games has resulted in a win of greater than 10 points; prior to the loss last time out, they'd won their previous game by a single point. While the Lions are 2-6 ATS their last eight as home favorites in the 6.5 to 12 range, the Aggies are 6-3 ATS as road underdogs, in the same range, during the same span. Grab the points and don't be surprised if the Aggies take this down to the wire and score the upset. 

I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Owls come in confident. They won six of their final seven, including a double-digit win at Houston, the lone loss came against UCF. They won their last two games by a combined score of 84-24. Sure, they're going through a coaching change but unlike the last time when it happened a couple of years ago, they're much better prepared - all the assistants stayed on this time. After coming up short in (interim coach) Ed Foley's first chance at a bowl, two years ago, they're going to be hungry to get this one. Duke, meanwhile, lost its last two games by a combined score of 94-13. The Owls have plenty of stats working in their favor, as they've been money at the betting window in recent seasons. One that stands out is their perfect 7-0 ATS record, when coming off an ATS win as a double-digit favorite. Expect the Owls to improve on those stats Thurs. afternoon. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Suns have been on a nice ATS winning streak. However, I fully expect it to come to an end here. The Suns will be playing fifth straight on the road, their final road game of 2018 and final road game for quite some time. I feel that they could easily be thinking ahead to the return trip home. While they did have a couple of days off over Christmas, the triple-OT and b2b games on 12/22 and 12/23 may still catch up with the Suns here. Note that they're 12-20 ATS the past 32 times that they played with two day's rest in between games, 2-4 ATS in that situation this season. Off three straight lopsided losses, the Magic are going to be extremely hungry. The Magic already hammered the Suns at Phoenix and are 4-0 SU the last four in the series, all four wins coming by a minimum of six points. Expect them to bounce back with their best effort, improving to 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were off three consecutive double-digit losses. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Warriors have been winning some close games of late, while failing to cover. That caused this line to come out in the single-digits. Make no mistake, the champs are still capable of laying down the hammer and winning games by double-digits. A Christmas Day visit from Lebron and the Lakers is the perfect opportunity to remind everyone of that fact. While Lebron is obviously still on top of his game, the Lakers, 8-14-1 ATS the past 23 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 230 or greater, don't have enough weapons to keep up. Not against the well-oiled machine which is the Warriors, finally back to health. While Durant did tweak an ankle last game, as of this writing, he's expected to be fine. (He typically dominates on Christmas, averaging 31.1 ppg.) Expect a "statement" win for the champs. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* PERS FAV). These teams met at Dallas a few weeks ago. At the time, the Blazers were really struggling. The Mavs won 111-102. At the time, that result dropped the Blazers to 1-10 ATS (3-8 SU) over an 11-game stretch. However, they've since turned things around. Since the Dallas game, even counting a blowout loss vs. Utah last time out, they've gone 5-3 SU/ATS. Here, they catch the Mavs off a game vs. the defending champs and playing their second game in two days. The Mavs are 1-3 ATS when playing the second of b2b games, most recently losing by double-digits at Phoenix. The Blazers, meanwhile, are 10-4 ATS their last 14 in the revenge role, 6-2 ATS when avenging a road loss. The Blazers, who beat Dallas by nine the last meeting here, are also 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they were off a double-digit divisional loss. Schedule in their favor, expect them to improve on those stats Sunday. 

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO (10* GAME OF WEEK). I've won with the 49ers each of the past two weeks. I've really liked what I've seen from them and I'm going back to the well one more time. This is the 49ers home finale, which should provide some added motivation. They want to keep their positive momentum going and are anxious to see how they fare against one of this season's top teams. While the Bears still boast a great defense, they're going to be without safety Eddie Jackson. Thats a big boost for the 49ers as Jackson has six INTs this season and has scored three TD's. Linebacker Aaron Lynch will also miss for the Bears. Chicago, which has already clinched the NFC North, is off a win over archrival Green Bay (and the Rams before that) and has division rival Minnesota on deck. Note that the Bears are 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were listed as road favorites of seven or less. Meanwhile, the 49ers are now 3-0 ATS this season as home underdogs of seven or less. Last season's meeting, at Chicago, had a final score of 16-15. The 49ers had a 23-8 edge in first downs and dominated time of possession. While obviously much has changed, I expect another close one and I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on CAROLINA. As most of you are aware, I won with the Panthers when they covered against the Saints on Monday night. Though they fell short of the SU win, I liked their effort. This is a team which plays much better on its home field. Sunday afternoon represents their home finale and I believe that they're going to be highly motivated to snap their losing streak and to reward the home faithful with a final victory. The fact that they're playing with revenge against a division rival only should only add to their motivation level. True, the Falcons got a big win last week. However, that was at home against a poor Arizona team. Now, the Falcons are on the road where they're just 1-5. The Panthers are 6-3 ATS the last nine times that they were off a division loss. While they won't have Newton, I believe they're still very capable of winning. Taylor Heinicke may not have NFL experience but he is very ready and knows this system extremely well. Wide reveiver Jarius Wright noted: "I'm expecting him to go out there and play lights out. I think Taylor's a good quarterback — I just think a lot of people haven't gotten a chance to see him play. So I'm excited for him to show everybody else what he can do. Because I've seen it." Expect their best effort, as they again bounce back from a div. loss, with another win and cover. 

I'm playing on LA. On this field, I believe that the Chargers are the superior team. Combine that with, what I believe is also, a significant scheduling advantage, and I expect them to pull away for a big win Saturday afternoon. The Ravens average 21.4 ppg on the road, the Chargers average 29.3 ppg at home. While the Ravens are working on a short week, the Chargers have had extra time to prepare. The Ravens will already be playing their third road game in December. Some might be surprised to learn that they're only 5-11 ATS their last 16 as underdogs, 4-10 ATS as road underdogs. In fact, the Ravens are 0-7 ATS the past seven times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 4-0 SU this season and 6-1 SU / 5-2 ATS when off a win by six or less. Homefield and schedule in their favor, expect them to improve on those stats Saturday evening. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* VIOLATOR). The Raptors have taken both this season's meetings. However, both of those were at Toronto. This evening, in addition to having the venue in their favor, the revenge-minded 76ers have the schedule working for them. The Raptors are off a win against Cleveland last night and are now playing their third game in the past four days. Making matters worse, Philly native Kyle Lowry is expected to be out again for the Raptors while start Kawaii Leonard is expected to rest. The 76'ers, meanwhile, have had the past two days off. They're 24-12 ATS in that situation, the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, they're 37-24 ATS as home favorites, 18-12 ATS as home favorites of six or less. It all adds up to one thing. Payback time. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO (10* ANNIHILATOR). I successfully played against the Bulls in their last regular season game. That 1-point loss has caused everyone to jump off the bandwagon. The Bulls opened as a 3-point favorite but that quickly came down. I feel thats providing us with plenty of value. The Bulls have still had an excellent season and they're going to come in hungry; they're 10-5 ATS their last 15 off a game where they didn't cover. To me, Troy's double-digit loss to Appalachian State in its last game is more concerning than Buffalo's loss against NIU. The Bulls can put up plenty of points and are never out of a game. As Troy's coach Neal Brown noted: "They’re as good an offense as we’ve faced all year. It starts with the quarterback." (Jackson had 27 TD passed vs. just 11 Ints, throwing for nearly 3000 yards.) With 10 wins, these Bulls have already made history. They're not done yet - expect them to bring home the first bowl win in school history. 

I'm playing on UCLA (10* MAIN EVENT). Calls for Steve Alford's firing are growing louder. A blowout loss this afternoon may seal his fate. Though its still December, a loss here is going to really hurt the Bruins' chances of making the NCAA Tournament - as they're unlikely going to be able to pick up enough quality wins after this one. This is still a very talented team though, one absolutely capable of competing with the Buckeyes and beating them. Aware of the situation, I expect them to rise to the occasion and to bring their best game. While I respect the Buckeyes, lets also not forget that they're just 3-7 ATS their last 10 on a neutral court, 11-21 ATS in non-conference play, during that same span. The previous time that the Bruins were off b2b losses, they responded with a 19-point win. Including that result, they're 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they'd lost two of their previous three. Look for them to improve on those stats here.

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Rockets have admittedly been playing better of late, this is a tough spot for them. While the Heat are very well-rested, the Rockets are off a game last night vs. Washington and are now playing their third game in the past four days. They're 2-3 ATS in b2b situations this season and just 2-7 ATS when off a game vs. an Eastern Conf. team. With the exception of a win at Memphis, the Rockets' current winning streak has come at home. They're still 6-10 ATS on the road. The Heat have quietly been playing well themselves. They're 2-0 SU/ATS their last two and 9-3 ATS (7-5 SU) their last 12. Venue and schedule in their favor, expect them to improve to 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN KENTUCKY (10* PERS FAV). The Norse already beat NIU (in OT) on the road. While the Huskies would love to avenge that loss, its not happening. Not here. The Huskies are 7-24 SU in road lined games the past few seasons while the Norse are 25-3 SU in home lined games. The Huskies won big against lowly Western Illinois last time out. However, that was at home. Their last road game resulted in a 27-point road loss. Also, they're just 5-10 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a double-digit win. After having dropped b2b road games, Northern Kentucky got back on track last time, winning by six against Miami Ohio, another MAC opponent. Note that the Norse are 8-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after having dropped two of their previous three games. Expect the Norse to continue their strong play at home, covering the reasonably small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MONTANA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Admitedly, the Grizzlies have had their struggles on the road. However, I feel that they're providing us with excellent value here. The Wildcats are off b2b SU losses and are 0-2-1 ATS their last three. Keep in mind that the Grizzlies returned four starters - and six of their seven top scorers - from last year's NCAA Tournament team. While that team would eventually lose to Michigan, they hung with the Wolverines for the first half. An experienced team with senior leadership, they're not going to be intimidated here. Indeed, I believe this team is better than its shown. While Montana returned the majority of its starting roster, Arizona lost all five of last season's starters. Expect those personnel losses to continue to haunt the Wildcats here, the Grizzlies rising to the occasion, their best effort leading to at least the cover. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (10* VIOLATOR). After stumbling down the stretch, I believe we're going to see an extremely motivated Aztec team on Wednesday, one which tends to thrive in the underdog role. Note that the Aztecs are 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they were getting points. I believe that the Aztec defense is better than it showed down the stretch. They're strong against the run, which will serve them well against the Ohio ground attack. Note that they're 26-14 ATS over the years, after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of the previous game. While I respect the Bobcats, I feel that their schedule was pretty soft. Note that they're just 3-8 ATS over the year, after b2b victories of 21 or more points. I expect Rocky Long to do a great job of ensureing that losing down the stretch makes for an extremely motivated SDSU team, one that comes away with AT LEAST the Frisco Bowl cover. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* MAIN EVENT). Its not often the Panthers find themselves getting points at home, let alone this many of them. Thats the case though - a combination of New Orleans having a strong season and Carolina currently struggling. Lets not forget that the Panthers are 11-6 ATS the past few seasons, when getting points, 3-1 ATS as home underdogs. During that stretch, they're also 8-5 ATS when coming off a road loss. I expect this game to carry a lot of meaning for the Panthers. Division rival, Monday night, looking to snap their skid, looking to prove to the world that they're a much better team than their record indicates. Note that none of the Panthers' last four losses came by more than a touchdown and those four losses came by an average of only four points. Speaking of close games, three of the past five meetings between these teams have been decided by five or less. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). These teams have met twice so far this season. Both meetings were at Sacramento. The Kings won both by double-digits. This evening, however, the T-Wolves have homecourt on their side. They've also got the schedule working in their favor. While Minneota had Sunday off, the Kings were busy playing at Dallas. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, this will be the Kings' third game in the past four days. The last four times that the Kings played the second of b2b games? They went 0-4 SU/ATS. All four of those games resulted in double-digit losses, 107-97, 133-112, 132-112, 101-86. Expect more of the same here, a highly motivated Minnesota team pulling away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on SF (10* GAME OF MONTH). I won with the 49ers last week and I'm coming right back with them again here. While Seattle won again last week, it now plays on a short week. Though he had some decent plays with his feet, Wilson had a poor performance and the final score wasn't necessarily all that reflective of the way the game played out. Note that Seattle is just 2-6 ATS its last eight as a road favorite. During that span, the Hawks are also just 3-6 ATS off a double-digit home win and a poor 5-11 ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points. The 49ers, 2-0 ATS as home underdogs of seven or fewer points, will be looking to prove that they're a alot better than the team which got blown out at Seattle a couple of weeks ago. Venue (and schedule) now in their favor, expect a huge effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover Sunday afternoon.

I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). While I successfully played against the Broncos last week, they're back home now and I feel that they're providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that this team had previous won and covered three straight. Last week was just a tough spot, as they were playing their second straight on the road. The Broncos' last few home games have come against quality teams like the Steelers, Texans and Rams. While Cleveland is better than it has been in recent years, the Browns have still dropped three of their last four on the road. The last two of those losses both came by double-digits. The Browns will be playing their third road game in the past four weeks and they've got divisional games against the Bengals and Ravens on deck. Expect the Broncos to bounce back and improve to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were off an upset loss as a road favorite. 

I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS (10* MAIN EVENT). The Aggies will say all the right things that they're happy to be here. They're not. They wanted a bigger bowl and this is a disappointment. That type of disappointment makes it difficult to win, let alone cover a big number. The Aggies' task is made that much tougher by the fact that the Mean Green are actually pretty good. In 2015, the Mean Green won only a single game, before hiring current head coach Seth Littrell. That hiring proved to be huge for them, as they've been competitive ever since. This marks their second straight season with nine wins and this is their best team under Littrel. While Littrel was rumord to be heading to K-State, he reportedly withdrew his name from consideration. Meanwhile, Utah State's coach (Matt Wells) has already left for Texas Tech. The Aggie offensive and defensive coordinators joined him, too. Having come up short in bowl games the past two seasons, the Mean Green have something to prove. I believe that this game means more to them and I expect that to lead to AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND (8* SHOCKER). Off a huge road win over the champs, I believe that the Raptors are going to be ripe for a letdown. Note that the Raptors are 5-9 ATS after scoring 110 or more in two more consecutive games. They'll be facing an angry and talented Portland team, one which hasn't lost a home game by more than four points all season. Not surprisingly, the Blazers are already 1-0 ATS as home underdogs (15-point win over the Bucks) this season; 11-7 ATS in that role the past couple of years. The Blazers haven't forgotten that the Raptors came in here and shut them down early last season, before blowing them out at Toronto. Its finally payback time!

I'm playing on SF. The Dons are rolling. Off their big win against Cal, expect them to carry the momentum into this evening's game against an outclassed Eagles team. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Raptors beat a short-handed (no Curry) Warriors team, at Toronto, in OT. The game had been billed as a Finals Preview and the some of the fans reacted as if they'd won a finals game. Now healthier, playing at home and with the schedule in their favor, expect the revenge-minded champions to get some payback. Leonard was the hero for the Raptors in the first game. However, he didnt play last night. If he does go tonight, he may be less than 100%. Either way, the Warriors are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) the past eight times that they attempted to avenge a loss of three or fewer points and we can expect them to improve on those stats. 

I'm playing on SIU (10* GAME OF MONTH). This is a regional rivalry and its an important game for both teams. While the Racers are playing well, I expect homecourt and a stingy Southern Illinois defense to ultimately prove the difference. Murray State won by eight, as a 5-point favorite, at home, last season. However, SIU won by four, as a -2.5 point favorite, in the last meeting here. While the Racers may be 5-0 ATS through six games, they're just 1-1 SU in true road games and they're also only 2-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, after covering the spread in four or five of their previous six games. The Salukis have thrived as small home favorites in recent seasons and come in confident; they're off five straight wins, the last three of which they were favored for. They're 4-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, after having been favored in three straight. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on CAL STATE FULLERTON (10* MASTERPIECE). In my opinion, the gap between these teams isn't nearly as big as the pointspread suggests. The Titans brought back most of their depth and four starters from a team which made the NCAA Tournament last season. While the Titans' admittedly record isn't very good, they've had a number of close losses, a couple coming in OT. Only one of their losses by more than 10 points. While the Gaels have won a few in a row, they'd previously lost four straight. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BEST BET). The Bulls got embarrassed by Boston on Saturday and they're going to be looking to bounce back with a much better effort. I believe that they're catching the Kings at the right time. Sacramento lost by double-digits at Indiana Saturday and will now be playing its third road game in the past four days. The Bulls have been dealing with injuries all year but they're slowly getting heathier. Prior to the Boston debacle, the Bulls' previous two home games resulted in an outright win against OKC and a 1-point loss against San Antonio. Expect their best effort to lead to at least another cover here. 

I'm playing on SF (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Broncos have been all over the place lately. After playing two of three on the road, they got a bye in early November. That was followed by a trip out West (LA) and then back to Denver. Last week, they played at Cincinnati. Now, here they are back on the West Coast. I expect it to catch up with them and feel that they're over-valued. The last time that Denver played the second of b2b road games, it lost by seven. While the defense improved the last couple of weeks, the Broncos are 0-4 ATS their last four, when off b2b games where they allowed 17 or fewer points. During the same span, the 49ers are 5-3 ATS, after failing to score more than 17 in b2b games. The last time that the 49ers were in that situation they won 34-3. Expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST another cover Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. As many of you know, I successfully played against these same Redskins on Monday night, while also cashing with the 'under' in that game. However, that was on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs, who were playing for their season. Now, the Skins are at home, facing a Giants team which is playing out the string. Thats a major difference. Yet, they're still getting a handful of points. Talk about no respect! While the Giants have actually won a few recently, including a win over the Bears last week, none of those wins came by more than four points. They're also just 1-5-1 ATS their last seven off a SU win as an underdog. While I like the Skins to rise to the occasion and win this one outright, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Nuggets absolutely destroyed the Hawks, at Denver, a few weeks ago, a 45-point beatdown. At the time, the Hawks were in the middle of a road trip and had just lost tight games against the Lebron Lakers and the defending champion Warriors. Off those b2b close losses and weary from being thousands of miles from home, they were vulnerable. This time, its the Hawks which are at home. This time, its the Nuggets who have been on the road for some time. The Nuggets played last night at Charlotte and are now playing their third game in four days, the final leg of a 5-game road trip. Dating back to the 11/15 game against the Hawks, the Nuggets have not played in the same arena in consecutive games. Thats a lot of travel; after this they finally get a 4-game home stretch. The Hawks haven't forgotten the 11/15 loss. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to improve to 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 20 or more points. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played on the Grizzlies in their last game, a double-digit win over the Clippers on Wednesday. However, that was at Memphis, where they've been playing well all year. They're now 8-3 at home. The road has been a different story, as they've been mediocre away from Memphis, most recently losing by eight. The home/road difference is even more pronounced for the Pelicans. They're only 3-10 on the road but an impressive 10-3 here at New Orleans. Last time out, they won by 26. While the Pelicans have tomorrow off, the Grizzlies will host Lebron and the Lakers tomorrow. It all adds up to another big home win for the Pelicans. 

I'm playing on ELON (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, the Spartans are a solid team. Last time out, they even gave Kentucky all it could handle. For awhile, at least. Midway through the second half, the Spartans even led the Wildcats. Kentucky closed things out on a big run though; the 78-61 final snapping UNC Greensboro's 6-game winning streak. While they've had a few days off, I expect that loss to take a toll. While the Phoenix have not gotten off to a good start, I believe that they're a little better than they've shown and that the early results have helped in providing us with an extra generous number. The Phoenix love to hit from downtown and they're pretty good at doing so. They're 14-6 ATS over the years, after allowing 90 or more points in their previous game, and I look for them to give their guests a much tougher game than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on BYU (10* GAME OF WEEK). While the Aggies have admittedly been playing well, the Cougars have dominated them in recent seasons. Just in the 'Nick' of time, the Cougars get Emery back from a 9-game suspension. He'll provide a much-needed spark to the offense. Keep in mind that the junior has made 172 three-pointers, on 38% shooting, over the course of his career. Its not too late for the Cougars, who had high hopes coming in, to salvage their season. Expect them to rise to the occasion with a much-needed victory. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Thunder are off b2b2b blowout wins and are playing well. I expect the Nets to bring them back down to earth though. OKC's recent winning streak has created plenty of value at the betting window. Keep in mind that the Thunder are laying a bigger number here than they were at venues like Phoenix and Cleveland. Yet, the Nets have a better record than either the Suns or Cavs. Grab the generous points and expect the Nets to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST a cover.  

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* BEST BET). True, the Rockets are off b2b blowout wins. However, lets not forget that they'd lost four in a row, before that. Also, its worth noting that they're only 13-21 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b double-digit victories. I expect homecourt to be the difference in this one. The T-Wolves are a profitable 14-6-1 ATS (16-5 SU) the last 21 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. Look for them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). While this is only their third consecutive road game, I believe that the Jazz will be getting a little road-weary. Thats because this marks the 13th consecutive time that they'll be playing at a different venue than they played their previous game at. Ten of those 13 (10 of L12) have come on the road. (The two home games during that stretch were immediately followed by a road game.) Either way, I expect them to have their hands full. Note that Utah is 0-4 ATS after having won three of its previous four. The Heat come in confident, off their minor upset of the Pelicans. They're 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they were off an upset win as a home underodg. The Heat have defeated the Jazz three straight times, two of those wins coming by a single point. Expect them to take this down to the wire with a great shot at another upset. 

I'm playing on DETROIT (10* BEST BET). While I obviously respect the Rams, I feel that they're laying too big a number here. Five of the Rams' last seven games have been decided by five or fewer points, six of those seven decided by 10 or less. Likewise, the Lions have seen each of their last two games decided by seven or less. Expect the Lions to rise to the occasion, giving the Rams all they can handle with a great shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF MONTH). Both teams played and lost yesterday. However, while the Wizards were getting blown out at Philly, the Nets double-OT loss was arguably far more painful and it should take a far bigger toll on them today. The Wizards are going to be in an angry mood. Not just from yesterday but also because the Nets upset them here a couple of weeks ago. Schedule in their favor, expect some serious payback today. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA (10* CONF. CHAMP. GAME OF YEAR). As per usual, Alabama had a dominant season. The Tide finished at 12-0. The Bulldogs weren't far off, however, as they finished at 11-1. With this game being played at Atlanta and the Dawgs getting double-digits at the betting window, I believe that we're getting outstanding value. True, Alabama hammered LSU, the team which handed Georgia its lone loss. However, Sometimes a loss can actually help a team. Since the loss to the Tigers, Georgia has emphasized its power-running game, averaging over 300 rushing yards over its past five games. Thats the one spot (run defense) that the Tide may be a little vulnerable, too. (Over the past two weeks, Alabama has allowed more than 400 rushing yards.) Don't be surprised when the Bulldogs shock the world. 

I'm playing on NIU (10* MAIN EVENT). The Bulls have had an excellent season and are clearly an improved team. Improvement was expected, as they brought back 14 returning starters. While 10 wins may not have been expected, their schedule was considerably softer than the one that NIU played. I'm not convinced that they're the real deal. Mixed in with Buffalo's 10 wins were two blowout losses, which I believe are revealing. Army and Ohio were able to beat them by 29 and 35. We're not talking Alabama and Clemson - Army and Ohio. Army couldn't even beat teams like Lafayette and Colgate by nearly that many. Likewise, for Ohio. Favored by more than 4 TD's, the Bobcats only beat Howard by eight. Yet, those teams destroyed Buffalo. On the other side, I don't think the Huskies, who faced the likes of Utah, Iowa and Florida State, are getting enough respect. This is a team with playmakers all over the field. I'll gladly take the points but I expect the Huskies to rise to the occasion and win this one outright. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO (10* BEST BET). The Kings are off b2b losses, for the fourth time this season. However, they've been great in that situation (3-0 SU/ATS) and they've got both the venue and the schedule in their favor. While the Kings, 6-2-1 ATS their last nine when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, are well-rested, the Clippers are off a win over Phoenix last night. Though they did pull away for a convincing victory, the score was tied at half. So, stars Harris and Gallinari were still forced to see relatively heavy (33 + 35) minutes. The Kings began the season with b2b defeats. They responded with a double-digit win (as a double-digit dog) over the Thunder. At the beginning of this month, the Kings again lost b2b games. They answered with a double-digit win over the T-Wolves, again when listed as an underdog. In the middle of this month, they lost b2b games for a third time. Once again, they faced OKC. Once again, they responded with an outright win. Expect their best effort to lead to at least another cover tonight. 

I'm playing on DALLAS (10* BEAST). The Saints are obviously playing great football. However, lately, the same can also be said of the Cowboys. They're 3-0 SU/ATS their last three, the first two of those wins coming on the road. Last week, they returned home for their annual Thanksgiving Day game, beating the Redskins. That brings them to 4-1 here on the season, 14-8 the past 2+ seasons. As good as they've been this season, the Saints are still just 11-10 on the road, during the same span. The fact that the Cowboys played on the Thursday gives them a normal week's worth of preparation time - which should serve them well with the Saints coming to town. New Orleans, on the other hand, plays on a short week. Grab the generous points but schedule and venue in their favor, don't be surprised when the Cowboys shock the world with an outright win. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA (10* BEST BET). The Knights upset the Tide last season, winning by three points (65-62) at Alabama. The Tide, who were favored by -9.5 points for that game, haven't forgotten and are coming in ready to play. Though they haven't been covering, this is a confident team which has won three straight and five of six. Like last year's game, expect this one to come right down to the wire, the visiting underdog again coming away with AT LEAST another cover. 

I'm playing on KENTUCKY (10* GAME OF MONTH). I've only played on the Wildcats once this season. They came through for me in that 11/14 game, the only game that they've covered this season, easily disposing of North Dakota by a 38-point margin. They're laying a similar number here as they were for that one and I'm again expecting another lopsided win and cover. Monmouth is an ugly 0-7 on the season. Even teams like CS-Fullerton and Lehigh were able to beat them by 24. Monmouth wasn't on the road for either of those either. Needless to say, Kentucky is a far stronger opponent. While the ATS wins haven't been there, the Cats have now won five straight by double-digits. Expect them to pull away and win this one by more than 30. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN (10* FULLCOURT PRESS). Both these teams have played well thus far, both have been money at the betting window. That said, playing at home, I expect the Eagles to have the advantage. The Buccaneers are perfect at home but only 1-2 on the road. The Eagles just beat a trio of respectable tams (FAU, Pepperdine and Montana) on a neutral court and they won their two home games by an average score of 118.5 to 70. While they did start out with a 'cupcake,' the last four wins have been legit. Last season, playing at home, the Bucs hammered the Eagles. Senior guard Tookie Brown and co. haven't forgotten. Tonight, they get some payback. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). While they're still dealing with some injuries, here's a great spot for the champs to "get healthy." While the Warriors had yesterday off, the Magic were busy playing Lebron and the Lakers, at LA. Playing their third in four days, the first of which was in the high altitude of Denver, expect fatigue to be a factor for the Magic, the Magic happy to lay down the hammer for a convincing win and cover. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* PERS FAV). Off b2b losses, the Blazers are going to be a determined team this evening. With an 11-point win against them a few weeks ago, the Blazers have now beaten the Clippers four straight times. All four victories came by a minimum of eight points. The Blazers are 7-3 ATS on the season, when laying points. The Clippers, on the other hand, are now 3-6 ATS when getting points. They're also just 2-5 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. Blazers roll. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* NFC NORTH GOY). The Packers desperately need a win to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive. That doesn't mean that they're going to get one though. While many can't imagine the playoffs without Rodgers, they better get used to the idea. The Vikings need this one (nearly) every bit as much as the Packers. While they've got a better record than the Packers, they're still traiing the Bears by two games and they know they can ill afford to lose a divisional home game. The Vikings tied the Pack at Lambeau already and they outscored them 39-10 in sweeping last season's series. Both teams have scored about the same number of points. The Packers average 24.7, the Vikes average 24.1. However, its on the other side of the ball that the Vikes will have the edge. The Packers allow 29.8 points and 375.4 yards per road game. The Vikings, on the other hand, allow 19.8 ppg and a mere 273.4 yards per game at home. They're 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last six times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. Expect their superior defense to lead to them improving on those stats Sunday night. 

I'm playing on CALGARY.  After coming up short each of the past two seasons - against Ottawa (in OT) in 2016 and by three against Toronto last year, the Stamps are on a mission. They've been the class of the league for years (this is their 6th Grey Cup in last 11 years) and are absolutely determined not to come up empty again. Note that they were much bigger favorites in the Grey Cup, each of the past two seasons. I feel that they could easily be bigger favorites here, too. Jonathan Rose getting suspended by the league will make an already difficult task for Ottawa that much tougher. Rose, who had five INT's this season and who has been an all-star each of the past two seasons, was suspended by the league - though he has appealed the decision. Even if he manages to find a way to play, the distraction isn't going to help Ottawa. Either way, it won't matter. While its normally enemy territory, the fact that the game is being played in Edmonton figures to help the Stamps. Enough's enough. Stamps win big. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND STATE (10*). While neither of these are "big name" teams, I believe that the Vikings are offering us excellent value as underdogs. The Mastadons are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road, allowing an average of 98 points. They're now 8-23 ATS their last 31 road lined games. Though wins have been hard to come by, I like the direction Dennis Felton has the Vikings going. Though I like their chances of an outright upset, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Eagles badly need a win and a visit from the Giants figures to be just what the doctor ordered. With a 34-13 win in October, the Eagles have now beaten Eli and co. four straight times. Though they certainly didn't look too good against the Saints, in my opinion, the Eagles still have a far superior defense to the Giants. They allow less than 20 ppg here while NY allows more than 24 ppg on the road. Embarrassed last week, expect the champs to play with a chip on their shoulder, bouncing back and improving to 6-2 ATS the past eight times that they were off two or more consecutive victories. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). Both teams played Friday. So, each will be playing the second of b2b games. However, New Orleans also played Wednesday, while Washington did not. That means that the Pelicans are playing their third game in four days, while the same cannot be said of the Wizards. Knowing that they'll face these same Pelicans, at New Orleans, on Wednesday, expect the Wizards to "hold serve" by protecting their home court.  

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* ANNIHILATOR). Playing at Pittsburgh, on this very day exactly one year ago, the Panthers upset the Hurricanes last season. However, when the teams last met in Miami, the Canes, who were favored by four points, hammered the Panthers by a 51-28 score. Back at Miami, I expect the Canes to have the advantage once again. While the Panthers are 2-3 away from Pittsburgh, the Canes are 4-1 at Miami. Pitt. has been outscored 25.6 to 24 on the road. Miami has outscored teams by a 39 to 14.8 margin here at home. Visiting teams are averaging just 216.8 yards per game here. The Canes destroyed V-Tech last time out and I expect them to carry the momentum into this afternoon's game. 

I'm playing on V-Tech (10* BEST BET). I won with the Hokies in last season's 10-0 win. They were favored by -6.5 or -7 for that one, despite playing on the road. Now, playing at home, we're getting points. With all due respect to Virginia, I believe thats providing us with excellent value on the Hokies. If you just looked at the schedule, you'd see that this is the final game for the 4-6 Hokies, which would mean that they'd have no shot at making a bowl. However, there was an earlier game postponed and V-Tech and Marshall have agreed to a conditional game, which will be played here at Lane Stadium, on Dec. 1st. That means that if V-Tech can win this one, it'd absolutely be looking at bowl eligility. The Hokies have long dominated their instate rival. They'll face a Cavs team which has dropped two if its last three, the lone win coming against Liberty. V-Tech senior Ricky Walker had this to say: "This game is my favorite game of the year. It's nothing like playing those guys. No matter what, they always think they're better than us, and we just keep on winning, and just dominate… at the end of the day we just want to keep that cup in Blacksburg." Everything on the line in the biggest game of the year, expect the Walker and the Hokies to rise to the occasion, earning AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* MAIN EVENT). Going against the Saints may be a bit nerve-racking for some. Indeed, they've been on an impressive roll. However, even though it may seem that they're blowing everyone out of the water, lets not forget that three of their last five games have still been decided by 10 points or less. Speaking of "close games," since the Falcons hammered the Saints by a 45-32 score here at New Orleans in September of 2016, the last four meetings between these rivals have ALL been decided by 10 or fewer points. While the Falcons are surely disappointed with their record, they've still only lost one game by more than 12 points all season long. This is a huge game for them and I expect them to come "ready to play." With the Saints just 5-10 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range, I'm grabbing all those generous points. 

I'm playing on SF (10* PERS FAV). The Dons are playing with a ton of confidence. Sure, the competition has been weak. However, this team can improve to 5-0 under Kyle Smith for the first time. They've won all their games by a minimum of 32 points and their +35.8 point average margin of victory ranks fourth in the country. A +21.3 edge in rebounds ranks second in the country. While its true that Harvard has been strong at the betting window in recent seasons and also true that the team brought back nearly all its pieces from last season, the Crimson will be playing their third straight on the road. A 2-point loss at Rhode Island last time out figures to take a toll. So does the absence of Bryce Aiken and Seth Towns. Those are two huge losses for this team. Expect the Dons to keep on rolling for another day.