Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers played poorly in Game 1 and still lost by only 12. They know they need to play a lot better tonight to take advantage of the fact that the Warriors are still without Curry. The Blazers are already 2-1 ATS when trailing in a series and they're 14-9 ATS off a double-digit loss. I expect a much better effort to result in a much closer result. 10* best bet

I'm playing on TORONTO. While a 5-point win wasn't enough to cover Game 7 against the Pacers, it was enough to send the Raptors to the second round. Thats a huge monkey off their back, as it had been years since they advanced this far. Without that "monkey" weighing them down, I expect to see the best of the Raptors tonight. The Raptors were very good in that Game 7 and easily could have covered. Their previous home game saw them successfully complete a huge fourth quarter comeback. This is a team which is playing very well here right now, supported by an entire (hockey-starved) country. After years of struggling against them here, the Raptors are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they hosted the Heat. They won those games by 10, 8 and 21 points. I expect another win and cover tonight. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on TORONTO. Each team has proven capable of winning on the road. However, the home team has still won four of the six games, each team going 2-1 on its home floor. I expect homecourt to ultimately prove the difference again this evening. The Raptors have worked extremely hard to get here. Not just this year but the past few years. They know that another first round exit is likely to lead to changes. I don't think Lowry and co are ready for that. While they didn't cover here last time, the Raptors did rally and win with an incredible fourth quarter; they're still 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS the last eight times they hosted the Pacers. I look for an inspired performance as they take the next step with a win and cover. 10*

I'm playing on TORONTO. While I won with the Pacers (and the over) in the last game, I like the Raptors here. Toronto was down big heading into the fourth quarter of Game 5. If the Raptors had lost that game, its entirely possible that I'd have come back with Indiana again here. However, they didn't. They played an inspired fourth quarter and came back for one of the bigger wins in team history. I believe that huge comeback wiill provide plenty of positive momentum here while the Pacers could be a little deflated. This is a different Raptor team from the one that has fallen short in the playoffs the past few seasons. I expect them to take the "next step" tonight. 10*

I'm playing on INDIANA. This series hasn't seen any really "close" games yet, as the winning team has won each game by double-digits. I won't be surprised if that changes tonight though and if this one comes down to the wire. The Raptors are just 4-7 ATS their last 11 as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. The Pacers, on the other hand, are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. While I respect and like this Raptor team, they're now only 4-10-1 ATS (5-10 SU) their last 15 playoff games and I think that they'll be feeling some pressure here. It should also be noted that the Raptors, who only scored 83 last time out, are 0-3 SU/ATS on the season after scoring 85 or fewer points in their previous game. After scoring 79 against Boston in March, they lost outright against Houston in their next game. After scoring 84 against the Wizards, they followed it up with an outright loss against the Suns. Earlier in the season, after scoring 76 against Miami, they lost outright (as 7.5 point home favorites) against the Knicks. I'm grabbing the points. 10* best bet

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Off back-to-back blowout losses, the Hornets are down 2-0. They're also without Batum, one of their key players. That's led to a very low line which I believe is providing us with excellent value. True, the Batum loss hurts in the "long-term." However, for a team in need of a "shake-up," it may prove to be exactly what they need for a single game. The Hornets have several options; they could choose to start Lin, Jefferson or Kaminsky. Lamb also should see some more time. No matter how they choose to play it, I expect a MUCH better overall effort from the Hornets, now that they're back at Charlotte. Remember, this is a team that went 30-11 here on the season. Meanwhile, the Heat were below 500 (20-21) away from Miami. Even after the Game 2 loss, the Hornets remain a healthy 12-6 ATS off a double-digit loss. I look for them to bounce back and get back in the series with a big win here. 10* 

I'm playing on INDIANA. I respect both these teams. I won with the Pacers in Game 1 and came back with the Raptors in Game 2. The Raptors were great on the road (24-17) this season. However, they still weren't as good as the Pacers (26-15) were at home. The Raptors outscore teams by 2.5 points per game on the road but the Pacers outscore them by four here at Indiana. While the Raptors are 36-45 ATS off a double-digit win the past couple of seasons, the Pacers are 11-3 ATS their last 14, when playing with two day's rest in between games. While it may not be "easy," I expect homecourt to ultimately prove the difference tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I won with Atlanta yesterday, a team which had narrowly "escaped" with a win on its home floor in Game 1. Having survived that "close call," the Hawks were all business and won Game 2 with relative ease. I see this one setting up much the same way. The Pistons had their chance in Game 1 but squandered it. I expect that result to serve as a "wake up call" for the Cavs. As the Hawks did yesterday, I look for the Cavs to take care of business in Game 2. The Pistons are new to this, as the team hasn't been to the playoffs in some time. They easily could be caught thinking about "what could have been." The Cavs, on the other hand, are playoff veterans and know there's no time for any "reflecting." They're 5-3 ATS (7-1 SU) their last eight, when leading in a playoff series and I look for them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing SAN DiEGO on the RUN-LINE. (+1.5 Runs) While I like the Padres' chances of winning "outright," I also really like the thought of getting an extra +1.5 runs, at a very reasonable price, in a game where only seven runs are expected (O/U line is 7) to score. Rea bounced back with an excellent effort last time out. He allowed just one earned runs through seven complete innings, needing only 94 pitches to do so. He'll have the advantage of starting against the Pirates for the first time. While its true that Liriano has enjoyed success here, he also missed his last start with tightness in his arm. Prior to that, he went only five innings in his previous start - his lone road start - giving up three earned runs, translating to a 5.40 road ERA. Note that the Pirates ended up winning by a single run, 6-5. Speaking of 1-run games, four of Liriano's six starts vs. San Diego, including three of the last four, have been decided by a single run. The Padres would be 4-0 the last four meetings against him, if getting +1.5 in each. I'll gladly take the extra +1.5 runs here. 10* Annihilator

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Celtics had their chance in Game 1 but couldn't capitalize. In a game that the Hawks led most of the way, Boston had a shot in the fourth quarter. Having squandered that opportunity, I don't think they'll get another one tonight. Homecourt means a great deal to the Hawks and they've got the type of veteran team that knows they can ill afford to let their homecourt advantage slip away. I expect the "close call" in Game 1 to serve as a wake-up call. While the Celtics are 4-9 ATS (6-7 SU) when playing with two day's rest, the Hawks are 5-3 ATS (6-2) when doing so. They'll take care of business here. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on TORONTO. After successfully playing on the Pacers in Game 1, I'm "zig-zagging" and coming back with what will be a desperate Raptors team in Game 2. The Raptors had a great year. They're well-coached, play hard and they've got (arguably) the best backcourt in the East. After getting torched by Paul George in the opener, I expect them to make the necessary adjustments. This entire year has been about advancing out of the first round. They fought too hard to gain homecourt advantage only to drop both games here. While I absolutely respect the Pacers, I expect the Raptors to take their game to another level, bouncing back with a convinging win and cover. 10*

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Homecourt means a lot to each of these teams and I expect it to prove significant in Game 1. While the Celtics were 20-21 on the road this season, the Hawks were 27-14 here in Atlanta. The Hawks beat the Celtics by 24 and 11 points in the two meetings here. While the Celtics were 3-9 ATS when playing with two day's rest, the Hawks were 5-2 ATS when doing so. This is a talented, unselfish team and I look for them to improve to 8-4 ATS as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on LA. The Jazz need a win in order to give themselves a chance to get in the playoffs. That said, they also know that even if they do win, the chances of them making the playoffs are practically non-existent. That's because they would also require the Rockets to lose at home, against a Kings team without Cousins and Rondo. Armed with that disappointing knowledge, off that devastaing loss to the Mavs, I don't expect their best effort here. Note that Gobert is going to be out and that Favors is banged-up. The Lakers have plenty of motivation. Last game. Kobe's last game. Triple revenge, including a 48-point loss at Utah in the last meeting. They're 8-4 ATS on the season after scoring 85 or fewer points and I look for them to bounce back with at least a cover here. 10* best bet

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers are talking as if the various playoff scenarios don't matter, Lillard commenting: "I mean, we're in the playoffs. We just want to do the right things every game. That's the biggest thing is play the right way and give ourselves a chance every night, the best chance ... we're in and whoever we end up playing, that's what it is. We want to push ourselves to get as high as we can and finish the season off the right way." However, thats not reality. The reality is that a win will guarantee them the 5th spot and a date against the Clippers instead of 6th and a date with the Thunder. With all due respect to the Clippers, Portland would much rather finish fifth. Of course, they can still lose and get the fifth spot, provided Dallas loses against the Spurs. No need to mess around though. As Lillard said, they want to "finish the season off the right way." The Blazers have dominated Denver here for years. They're 8-3 SU/ATS off an upset loss and I look for them to bounce back with a double-digit win. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on BOSTON. Homecourt means a great deal to both these teams. The Hornets are great at home (12-2 L14) but mediocre/poor on the road. Likewise for the Celtics. They're 10-12 their last 22 on the road but a dominating 18-2 their last 20 at home. That's the best homecourt record in the Eastern Conference, the past few months. That makes this evening's game all the more important. The Celtics know if they win their final two games (both at Boston) than they'll have homecourt advantage in the first round. Its true that the Hornets, who lost at Washington yesterday, have fared pretty well when playing the second of b2b games. However, this is also their fifth game in the past seven. That's a pretty gruelling stretch and I look for it to catch up with them here. With yesterday's double-digit loss, the Hornets are now just 3-8 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. The Celtics, on the other hand, are 7-4-1 ATS (9-3 SU) in 12 home games with an O/U line in that range. I look for homecourt to be the difference here. 10* 

I'm playing on MIAMI. While he Magic upset them at Orlando on Friday, I expect the Heat to return the favor in convincing fashion this evening. While they're obviously still playing hard, the Magic are long out of the playoff race. The Heat, on the other hand, are still fighting to secure a top four spot and homecourt advantage in the first round. While the Heat have won 11 of 13 at home, the Magic, who are expected to be without both Gordon and Oladipo, have lost 11 of 13 on the road. The Heat have dominated the Magic here for years, including an 11-point win here a few weeks ago. I expect the Heat, 9-6 ATS (10-5 SU) off an upset loss, to crank up the defensive intensity, en route to another double-digit win. 10* 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The T-Wolves got a little lucky last game at Sacramento, as Cousins got scratched. Tonight, however, they're up against a better team, at a much tougher venue; I expect their 'good fortune' to run out. The Blazers, 10-3 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest, are 27-12 at home. The T-Wolves, on the other hand, are just 14-26 on the road. While the T-Wolves are just 3-12 against divisional games, the Blazers are 10-4 in divisional play. While the T-Wolves covered here earlier, the Blazers have dominated them here for years. They're 19-1 SU the last 20 meetings, going 14-5-1 ATS. I expect that domination to continue this evening, the home team pulling away with a double-digit win. 10* 

I'm playing CINCINNATI on the Run-Line (+1.5 RUNS) With Cole on the mound, the Pirates are favored by enough here that we can get an extra +1.5 runs with the Reds, at a very reasonable price. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. Sure, Cole is off a great season. That was against just about everyone else though and not Cincy. Indeed, he was 0-3 with a 5.95 ERA in four starts vs. the Reds. For his career, he's 0-4 (team is 0-6!) with a poor 5.23 ERA and 1.592 WHIP against them. One of Cole's losses came in a game where he was matched up against Iglesias. Cole gave up seven hits while lasting just five innings. Iglesias would go 6 2/3 innings, giving up just four hits and two earned runs. The Reds won by a single run, 4-3. While Cole will be making his first start this season, Iglesias already has a game (and win) under his belt. In the Reds' opener, he allowed two runs through six innings, striking out seven without walking a batter. Note that Cole was only able to get 6 2/3 innings of work in the spring, as he was recovering from inflammation in his ribs. (He had a 5.40 ERA in those spring innings, opposing hitters batting .375 against him.) While I like the Reds' chances of winning 'outright,' that extra 1.5 runs were important yesterday, as Cincy lost 6-5. I'll happily take those extra runs again here. 10* 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I won with the 76'ers in their last game and I'm coming back with them again tonight. Neither team will be making the playoffs. Often, in games involving two teams "playing out the string," the team which is more motivated is the team which gets the cover. I believe that will be the 76ers here. For starters, the game is at Philly. Also, the 76ers will be looking for their first "winning streak" since last March, which will add some incentive. Additionally, the Knicks have beaten them all three games. That means that they'll be trying to avoid the sweep here, which should also add some motivation. The fact that the last meeting (on MLK Day) was lost in double OT may have kept that game in their memories. I believe they'll be hungry to avenge that loss and to avoid the sweep. The Knicks, who are only 1-5 their last six overall, are 7-9 ATS against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season; the 76ers are 10-7 ATS (against losing teams) during the same stretch. I expect them to improve to 5-2 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. 10* 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The T-Wolves shocked the Warriors a couple of nights ago, rallying to beat them in overtime. That victory proved that they can beat any team in the leauge. That said, they've been inconsistent and they're still only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS their last six games. I expect them to find a highly motivated Kings team waiting for them in the second last game ever to be played here. With their final home game coming against OKC, the Kings know that this is their best chance to reward the faithful with a final victory. While they came up short vs. Portland on Tuesday, the Kings have been playing well recently. They're 4-3 SU their last seven, going an impressive 6-1 ATS. Playing with "triple-revenge" and looking to avoid getting swept by the T-Wolves should provide them with added motivation tonight. While the T-Wolves are 2-6 ATS (1-7 SU) as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, the Kings are 3-2 ATS (4-1 SU) as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. 10*

I'm playing on BOSTON. I successfully played against the Pelicans yesterday and I'm going against them again tonight. New Orleans is dealing with MAJOR injury issues. To their credit, they've still fought hard and have actually won a few games. That said, they don't have the talent on the floor right now to compete with a complete team like Boston, particularly not when playing the second of back-to-back games. With potentially winnable home games against the Lakers and Suns on deck, I feel it will be easy for them to "pack it in" at Boston tonight. The Celtics, who had the past two days off and who also have tomorrow off, are 7-3-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. New Orleans, on the other hand, is 3-6 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the same range. The Celtics beat a much healthier/stronger Pelicans team by 18 points at New Orleans back in December. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I expect an even bigger blowout tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I believe this game will mean more to the 76ers than it will to the Pelicans. Philly knows it needs one win over its final five games to avoid matching the 72/73 76ers for the worst record over a full NBA season. While they will have a couple more chances, the 76ers also know this is likely their best chance at earning that victory. Both teams are dealing with injury issues. However, the Pelicans' injury situation is far worse. To their credit, they've still played well of late. I expect it to catch up with them here though. While both teams had yesterday off, the 76ers also have the next two days off while the Pelicans will play at Boston tomorrow. That said, I expect the 76ers to leave it all on the floor while they look to to take advantage of a rare winnable game. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. Obviously, both teams are playing really well. I believe that the Wildcats are superior defensively though and that their advantage on that side of the ball will ultimately make the difference. Yes, the Tar Heels averaged more points per game than the Wildcats this season. Villanova has topped the 85 point mark in four of five NCAA Tournament games though, including 95 last time out, so I don't believe the Wildcats are giving anything away there. (Villanova has connected on 58.2% of its field goals during the tournament, compared to 51.8% for UNC.) However, as stated, its on the other side of the ball that the Cats really have an edge. UNC has allowed an average of 71.8 ppg during the tournament, pretty close to the 69.8 ppg (71.3 ppg on the road) it allowed on the season. On the other hand, Villanova is allowing a mere 63.3 ppg on the season and that number has dropped to a paltry 60.6 in the Big Dance. Therefore, its worth noting that UNC is only 1-2 SU/ATS its last three games against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game, splitting its last two against UVA while losing its last one against Louisville. (Syracuse was allowing 64.6 ppg coming into Sunday's game, so didn't qualify.) The Wildcats are 7-0 (5-1-1 ATS) the last seven times they played a game with an O/U line in the 150 to 159.5 range. That includes a 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS record this season, with a 5-point win at Butler and a 14-point win at Creighton. They're a perfect 5-0 ATS in the Big Dance and I look for them to improve on those stats Monday night. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While the Mavs have won all three of this season's meetings, I look for the T-Wolves to step up and avoid the sweep this afternoon. The Mavs have won three straight. Combine that with a 2-5 mark over Houston's last seven games and Dallas finds itself right back in the playoff race. The Mavs are currently tied with Utah for the final spot with Houston hot on their heels. Speaking of Houston, that's who the Mavs play next. Given that they've dominated Minnesota again this season, I believe it will be easy for the Mavs to get caught looking ahead here and that they could easily overlook the T-Wolves. While they got a strong game from Barea last time out, the Mavs are still without starting point guard Deron Williams. Chandler also remains out while Felton missed last game. Off an upset win at Detroit, note that the Mavs are only 5-8 SU/ATS off an upset victory. Look for the revenge-minded Wolves to thrive in the spoiler role this afternoon, as they improve to 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 times that they played a home game where the O/U line ranged from 205 to 209.5. 10* best bet

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. Some of you may recall that I had a big play on the Raptors when they upset the Spurs back in December. This one sets up much differently though. For starters, we're now at San Antonio instead of Toronto. That's significant as the Spurs have been "very good" on the road but "unbeatable" here at San Antonio. Having had the past two days off, the Spurs are well-rested; they're 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) when playing with two day's rest. Toronto, on the other hand, is off a hard fought, physical victory at Memphis last night. In addition to the b2b spot, this will now be the Raptors' sixth game in the past nine days. That's not the type of lead-up you want when playing at San Antonio and facing a revenge-minded Spurs team. San Antonio, 10-5 ATS (13-2 SU!) the last 15 times it played with 'revenge,' has dominated the Raptors here over the years, including a 10-point win here last season. I expect another double-digit victory here. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. Its true that Oklahoma hammered the Wildcats back in December, by far Villanova's worst loss of the season. However, I'm expecting a vastly different result on Saturday. The Wildcats have arguably been more impressive than any team in the tournament thus far. They topped the 85-point mark in each of their first three games, winning by 30, 19 and 23 points. Last time out, they showed they can also dominate defensively, limiting a very good Kansas team to 59 points. The Sooners have been impressive too but arguably not quite as much. They have yet to win a game by more than 14 points and they barely squeaked past VCU in the second round. Buddy Hield is indeed an excellent player and is sure to put up some big numbers. I believe that the Wildcats are the more complete overall team though and I believe that their superior defense will ultimately be the difference. While the Sooners average three more points per game on offense, the Wildcats allow seven fewer points per game. (Oklahoma allows 70.4 ppg, Villanova allows a mere 63.6.) The last time that the Wildcats faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting was when they played at Providence on 2.6. The Friars had upset the Wildcats at Villanova on 1/24. Revenge-minded Villanova went on the road and hammered them by double-digits, beating them again, for good measure, in the Big East Tourney. Look for them to get some more payback Saturday, covering the small number along the way. 10*

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. While its true they're still dealing with some signifcant injuries, the Grizzlies arguably need this game more than the Raptors and I expect them to provide us with a highly motivated effort tonight. Off Wednesday's 109-105 loss against Denver on Wednesday, note that the Grizzlies are 7-3-1 ATS off an upset loss, 14-7 ATS after scoring 105 or more points AND 17-5-1 ATS after allowing 105 or more points. While both teams had Thursday off, the Grizzlies also have tomorrow night off, while the Raptors will be playing a big game at San Antonio. The Raptors, 1-2 ATS the last three times that they played the front end of b2b games, are just 1-4 ATS as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. Grab the points. 10* best bet

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I won with the Bucks on Wednesday and I'm coming right back with them again tonight. While the Bucks had yesterday off, the Magic were busy playing at Indiana. To their credit, the Magic won that game by 20 points, their third consecutive victory. They're only 5-12 SU when playing the second of b2b games though and this will also be their third game in the past four days. While the Magic remain a poor 12-27 away from Orlando, the Bucks are a respectable 22-15 here at Milwaukee. Not surprisingly, the home team has won and covered both meetings this season. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I look for another win and cover for the Bucks, as they improve to 20-11 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on OKC. After successfully playing on the Clippers in b2b games, I unsuccessfully went against them last night. That's not going to stop me from doing so again tonight though. Despite last night's easy win, a game which allowed them to rest their stars in the fourth quarter, the Clippers, still without Griffin, are expected to give Paul, Jordan and Redick the night off tonight. LA is basically locked in the fourth seed already and will now be playing its fourth game in five nights. While I successfully played against the Thunder when they lost to Detroit last time out, they're still playing very well right now, with eight wins in their last nine. In their last game here at OKC, they hammered the Spurs by 19 points. Facing a depleted Clipper lineup, all signs point to another blowout tonight. 10*

I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. These are both very good teams and both are (obviously) playing very well right now. Both are led by a star junior forward, Alec Peters and Tyler Cavanaugh have arguably been the two best players in the tournament. Both are very well-coached. Both teams play well on both sides of the ball. While the Crusaders are indeed very stingy, the Colonials are 2-1 SU/ATS against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. I believe that the venue will favor the Colonials. George Washington is only about 225 miles from NYC, a hop-skip-and a jump up the I-95. The Colonials will have plenty of fan support. While I expect GW to win the game "outright," I'm happy to grab any extra points that are being offered. Valpo is off a 2-point win last game and had another 2-point win five games before that. GW has seen five of seven decided by single digits including a 2-point win over Hofstra. GW coach Mike Lonergan received a basketball net a few weeks ago from a friend, a message to "cut down the nets in March." "Lonergan noted: "I haven't cut down nets in a while, since I was at Vermont I think. So it's great to be in this situation." The Colonials have been using that net as a good luck charm, hanging it in their locker room. When its all said and done, I expect Lonergan's crew to be cutting them down. 10* 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Suns managed a cover at Minnesota last time out, losing by 'only' five points. That hasn't been 'normal' though as two of their previous three road games resulted in losses of 20 or greater points and as they're an ugly 12-25 ATS (7-30 SU) away from Phoenix overall. The Suns sometimes bring their 'A game' against winning teams from the West. However, they rarely do so against losing teams or against teams from the East. They're only 9-18 ATS in non-conference play and just 9-21 ATS against sub .500 teams.  The Bucks are 4-2-1 ATS (5-2 SU) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or more and they're also 7-3 ATS when off three or more consecutive losses. They're well rested and they have tomorrow off. Look for them to improve to 19-11 ATS against teams with a losing record. 10* Personal Favorite 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I won with the Clippers in each of their last two games. However, I believe that this will be a good spot to go against them. The T-Wolves are playing well recently. They won their last game, their third victory in the last four games. They've won five of nine overall and all four of those losses came by single digits, three of them by five or less. In other words, they'd be 8-1 ATS their last nine games, if they'd been getting at least +5.5 in each. (Their actual record is 6-3 ATS during that time.) The T-Wolves have also played the Clippers tough this season. They beat them the last meeting (at LA) and lost by only four in the game here at Minnesota. Both teams had yesterday off. The T-Wolves also have tomorrow off. On the other hand, the Clippers have a big game at OKC on deck tomorrow. The Clippers are just 4-7 ATS their last 11 against teams with a losing record and they're only 9-14 ATS off a double-digit win. Conversely, the T-Wolves are 15-9 ATS their last 24 against teams which score 99 or more points per game, 14-8 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater and 12-4 ATS their last 16 against teams with a winning record. I like their chances of improving on those stats tonight and am grabbing the points. 10* best bet

I'm playing on DETROIT. With an O/U line currently sitting at around 215.5 of 216, this is expected to be a high-scoring game. I believe that will work in Detroit's favor, as will the schedule and venue. While OKC was busy beating Toronto yesterday, the Pistons have had the past two days off. Even with yesterday's victory, the Thunder are only 16-25-2 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, including 9-12-1 ATS on the road. Overall, they're still only 12-21-2 ATS on the road. On the other hand, the Pistons are 22-13-2 ATS (24-13 SU) at home and that includes a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Going back a little further finds them at 7-1-1 ATS (8-1 SU) the last nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or higher, 15-5-1 ATS (17-4 SU!) their last 21 in that situation. While the Pistons are off a loss (as a small favorite) vs. Atlanta, they'd previously won five straight. Also, they're 11-2 SU/ATS off an "upset" loss this season. Last year's game here was close, the Pistons easily covering. OKC was favored by 10 and won by only two. I expect AT LEAST another cover this evening. 10* best bet

I'm playing on Valparaiso. These teams first met in 1945, Valparaiso finishing on top. Four years later, in 1949, BYU returned the favor. Now, nearly 70 years later, I believe it's time for another win for the Crusaders. While most of those results are ancient history, its still worth mentioning that the Cougars have NOT fared well as small underdogs on a neutral court. Indeed, they're an ugly 1-11 the last 12 times that they were listed as a neutral court underdog of three or fewer points. During the same stretch, the Crusaders were 5-1 SU/ATS as a neutral court favorite of three or fewer points. In this game, BYU has the superior offensive numbers while Valpariso has a big edge defensively. BYU is allowing 72.8 ppg overall, 75.4 on the road. Over their last five games, the Cougars are allowing an average of 77.2. On the other hand, the Crusaders are allowing just 62.2 ppg. While Valparaiso holds opposing teams to 38.7% from the field on the road, the Cougars allowing opposing teams to connect on 43.6% of their shots, when playing away from home. I look for that defensive edge to be the difference this evening. BYU is an ugly 9-17 ATS (12-14 SU) its last 26 against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. Considering that the Cougars are 74-32 overall during that stretch, one can really see that they don't fare well against top tier defenses. During that span, Valparaiso is 17-6 SU against teams which average 77 or more points per game. So, while the Cougars have struggled against good defenses, the Crusaders have not had the same problem against good offenses. Remember, Valpariso held St. Mary's to just 44 points last time out. I expect the Crusaders to again dicate them tempo, en route to another win and cover. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on LA. I won with the Clippers yesterday and am coming right back with them again today. This line is a little lower than it could have been, due to the fact that LA played yesterday. I'm not overly concerned with that though, as all b2b spots aren't the same. In this case, the Clippers, who are 10-6 SU when playing the second of b2b games, are off a relatively easy victory and it came during the afternoon. They also had the previous two days off, prior to yesterday's game. Again, all b2b spots aren't created equal. While the Celtics had yesterday off, they're only 18-18 on the road, giving up 103.7 ppg. The Clippers, on the other hand, are 24-12 at home, allowing less than 99. While they've won four in a row, the Celtics are only 4-9 ATS after three or more consecutive victories. With the Clippers at 16-9 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier loss, I look for another win/cover for LA tonight. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Towson. The Golden Grizzlies had an excellent year and are certainly a solid squad. I believe the same can be said of the Tigers though and feel this line is a little on the high side. Admittedly, Oakland's conference and schedule was a little tougher. The Tigers can't help what conference they play in though and were competitive in the vast majority of games they played in. Note that six of their losses came by six points or less, five of those by three or less. Oakland, which badly wanted to be at the Big Dance, is only 2-7 SU on a neutral court the past few seasons. Including their loss against Wright State in the conf. tourney, the Golden Grizzlies, who haven't played in three full weeks and who saw two of their final four games decided by four or fewer points, are also 0-3 SU/ATS the last three times that they played with seven or more day's rest in between games. I look for this one to come down to the wire and am grabbing the points. 10* best bet

I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. I successfully played on both these teams in the last round. So, I got the matchup that I was hoping for and expecting. I like how it sets up for the Irish. Obviously, the Tar Heels are very strong. The Irish know all about that, as UNC hammered in the 3/11 game. The first meeting was a different story, however, as the Irish won that 2/6 game by a score of 80-76. That result should give them the confidence to know that they can compete. I also really like the fashion that the Irish have been winning their games in this tournament. They've got a "never say die" attitude and the comeback victories have them believing that destiny is on their side. Prior to the 3/11 blowout, four straight meetings had been decided by eight or fewer points. I look for this one to be much closer than many are expecting and am grabbing all those generous points. 10* Elite 8 G.O.Y.

I'm playing on INDIANA. We're getting the Pacers at a very low line in part due to the fact that they played yesterday. I'm not worried about the b2b spot though and feel that the low number is providing us with excellent value. Lets not forget that the Pacers remain a healthy 22-13 at home, far better than the Rockets' 16-21 mark away from Houston. While the Rockets give up more than 109 ppg (47.6% shooting!) on the road, the Pacers permit only 98 at home. The Pacers are 10-5-1 ATS (12-4 SU) the last 16 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. Playing with revenge, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Oregon. I won with the Ducks against Duke and I'm coming right back with them again against Oklahoma. As I mentioned in the Duke game, the Ducks are the real deal. Here's an excerpt from that writeup: "... While many may not yet agree, the Ducks (30-6) are a legit #1 seed. With 10 straight victories, ALL of them by a minimum of five points, the Ducks are arguably playing as well as any team in the country ... " Later, I went on to mention that the Ducks tend to fare well against "teams that like to push the pace," which is also applicable with Oklahoma. "...The Blue Devils tend to push the pace that plays into Oregon's strength. The Ducks are 11-3 ATS (13-1 SU!) their last 14 against teams which average 77 or more points per game..." Add another victory to those numbers after the thrasing of Duke. The Sooners, on the other hand, are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 against teams that score 77 or more points per game, a surprisingly poor 4-13 ATS their last 17 against teams with a winning record overall. The Ducks have won 12 of 13 games when the O/U line was in the 150s. I expect them to again prove that they're the "real deal." 10* 

I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. I successfully played on the Lakers when they upset the Grizzlies a few nights ago. The next night, I successfully played against them when they lost at Phoenix. They're back home tonight though in what is arguably their best shot at one final victory. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. While he's a bit banged-up, Kobe has always dominated Denver. In fact, his 31.9 ppg against the Nuggets is his most against any Western Conference opponent. Speaking of banged-up, the Nuggets remain without Chandler and Gallinari. Faried is also questionable, having missed the past four games. While they know they haven't played well "as a team" lately, the Lakers know that they have the talent to compete with this team. Perhaps for the last time all season, I look for them to rise to the occasion with their best game. 10* best bet

I'm playing on UNC. The Hoosiers just took down a "big name" program in Kentucky. They're facing another big name program here and this one figures to be a much tougher matchup for them. The Tar Heels are the real deal, perhaps the best team in the country at the moment. Well-coached. Talented. Experienced. Huge. All of those are likely to come into play Friday night, particularly that last one. Indeed, the Tar Heels have a serious size advantage and will have a big edge in the post. The Hoosiers aren't entirely healthy. Losing James Blackmon a couple of months ago really hurt their backcourt depth and Johnson (and Morgan) is currently a bit banged-up. Indiana coach Crean said this of UNC: "North Carolina is at another level ... because they have so many forwards that can run. They’re five to six deep at the four and five positions and they can all get out and run." I expect the Heels to step up their defensive intensity, picking up the win and cover and again showing that they're going to be tough for anyone to beat. 10* Friday Main Event

I'm playing on SYRACUSE. The Orange are getting very little respect and I believe they're seriously under-valued. True, Gonzaga has a far better overall record. That doesn't tell the whole story though. This is a battle-tested Syracuse team, one which has squared off against many of the top teams in the country. Indeed, the Orange have played eight games against teams in the Sweet 16. Gonzaga, on the other hand, has played only one game against a team in the Sweet 16, a loss against Texas A&M, a team which Syracuse beat the very next day. So, comparing the overall records isn't exactly relevant. Gonzaga is indeed a very good team, worthy of much respect. The Orange have arugably been as dominant as any team in the tournament though. Don't believe it? Check this out. The Orange have allowed 50 and 51 points. That average of 50.5 allowed, is the fewest ppg of any Sweet 16 team. They've won their two games by a combined 44 points and that 22-point average margin of victory is tied for second. As Syracuse's Frank Howard pointed out: "Sometimes our games aren’t the most fun to watch maybe. But ... Winning’s fun." The Orange are 10-2 ATS over the years as a neutral court underdog in the 3.5 to 6 range. I really like the way they're playing right now and expect all their "big game experience" to serve them well on Friday night. 10* Sweet 16 G.O.Y.

I'm playing on DETROIT. I successfully played on the Hornets when they beat the Spurs and then successfully against them when they failed to cover against the Nets. While I respect the work they've done in recent weeks, I'm going against them again here. These teams met twice earlier in the season, the Hornets winning both times. Both those meetings were at Charlotte though, while tonight's is at Detroit. Big difference. Even though they've been hot for quite some time overall, the Hornets are still just 14-19 away from Charlotte. The Pistons also struggle on the road but they're an impressive 23-12 here at Detroit. The Pistons know this a chance to get some 'payback' against the Pistons (and to avoid the sweep) while putting some ground between themselves and the idle Bulls. (They're currently 1.5 games up on the Bulls for 8th, 0.5 games back of Indiana for 7th.) The Pistons are playing with confidence right now. They've won four straight, scoring 115 or more in three of those. While they're stepping up in class here, I expect them to make it five in a row. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Oregon. While I backed Duke against Yale, this is a far more difficult matchup. While many may not yet agree, the Ducks (30-6) are a legit #1 seed. With 10 straight victories, ALL of them by a minimum of five points, the Ducks are arguably playing as well as any team in the country. Even when I played on Duke last game, I acknowledged that the Blue Devils lacked depth. Here's an excerpt from that writeup: "....Admittedly, the Blue Devils don't have the depth that they'd like, a problem that may rear its head as they advance into the later rounds. The starting lineup is still considerably stronger than the one they'll face today though ..." Thats not the case here though and I do expect that "problem to rear its head." Prior to facing UNC-Wilmington and Yale, the Blue Devils had lost four of seven games. The Blue Devils tend to push the pace that plays into Oregon's strength. The Ducks are 11-3 ATS (13-1 SU!) their last 14 against teams which average 77 or more points per game. They're excited for a chance to beat "mighty Duke" and I look for them to make the most of the opportunity. 10* Personal Favorite

10* Pacers. Analysis before 7am PST

I'm playing on PHOENIX. I won with the Lakers last night. They were playing at home and catching a depleted Suns team playing the second of b2b games. The shoe is on the other foot tonight though as now the Lakers are on the road, playing the second of b2b games. As the Lakers did last night, I expect the Suns to use the situation to their advantage. While the Lakers put up 107 points last night, they're only 7-13 ATS (4-16 SU) after hitting 105 or more in their previous game. They're also just 1-13 SU when playing the second of b2b games. The Suns recently beat the Lakers at LA. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to do so again, covering the relatively small number along the way. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on PORTLAND. These teams just met at Dallas a few nights ago, the Mavs winning 132-120. With tonight's rematch being played at Portland, I expect the revenge-minded Blazers to return the favor. While the Mavs, who were slight underdogs for the 3/20 game, are 4-7 SU/ATS off an "upset" win, the Blazers are 8-2 ATS off an "upset" loss. They're also 23-15 ATS when playing with "revenge" and 9-2 ATS when playing with two day's rest. Dallas, on the other hand, is 3-8 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Mavs are below 500 on the road while the Blazers are 21-12 here at Portland. The Mavs are 1-4 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The Blazers are 8-4 ATS (9-3 SU) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. I see them improving on those stats tonight. 10* annihilator

I'm playing on UTAH. Admittedly, the Jazz are better at home than they are on the road. They're still capable of winning on the road though, as their last game resulted in a 94-85 win at Milwaukee. With the schedule in their favor, I look for the Jazz to have the advantage again tonight. While Utah comes in rested, the Rockets fought hard, only to come up short, at OKC last night. That's noteworthy as Houston is only 6-11 ATS (7-10 SU) when playing the second of b2b games. While the Rockets would obviously like to avenge a closs loss at Utah last month, they're just 11-16 SU/ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. While the Rockets have dropped three of four, the Jazz have won five of six. The Rockets are allowing 106.8 ppg their last five. The Jazz are allowing 86 ppg their last five. Big difference. The Jazz are playing better basketball right now and I look for it to continue here. 10* best bet

I'm playing on COASTAL CAROLINA. Grand Canyon has already accomplished a lot, winning its first two postseason games ever. Those both came at home though and GCU will now be making its longest road trip of the entire season. While the Antelopes may have a "bigger name" for a head coach (Dan Majerle) I believe that the Chanticleers bring a little more to the table and I look for their homecourt advantage to prove the difference. The Chanticleers were 13-3 here and that included a 2-0 SU/ATS mark in lined games. They're now 10-1 SU / 9-2 ATS their last 11 home lined games. GCU has a winning road record but actually got outscored by an average of 72.4 to 72 on the road this season. On the other hand, Coastal Carolina outscored opposing teams by a 79.4 to 63.4 margin here in Conway. As I said, look for homecourt to prove the difference. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. The Gators are playing very well so far in this tournament. Lets not be so quick to forget that this is the same team that lost five of its last seven regular season games and which got eliminated in the SEC quarterfinals. Lets also keep in mind that the Gators are still 9-10 on the road including an 0-2 SU/ATS mark as a road underdog of three or fewer points. Meanwhile, the Colonials are 15-3 at home. While the Gators have failed to score 75 points in three of their last four, the Colonials have scored 80 or more in three straight and four of five. I expect them to advance to MSG, covering the small number along the way. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. The Lakers would love to reward the faithful with another win. With the schedule in their favor, this is arguably going to be their best chance to do so. Give the Grizzlies credit. Despite dealing with numerous injuries, they've won back-to-back games, covering their last three. They're playing their 8th game in the past 12 days tonight though and I expect those injuries to finally catch up with them. Unlike their guests, the Lakers are well-rested; they've had the past three nights off. I look for the fresher legs to prove the difference, revenge-minded LA moving to 9-6 ATS its last 15 when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. Beating the NBA is all about recognizing the right spots. I won with the Spurs against the Warriors on Sunday but went against them at Chalotte last night. Likewise, while I won with the Hornets last night, I'm full ready to go against them here at Brooklyn tonight. While very good at home, the Hornets aren't very good at all (13-19) on the road. They're also just 5-7 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. This is worse than a lot of typical b2b spots though. For starters, they really left it all on the floor and gave everythiing to come back last night. That type of emotional win can lead to a letdown. Additionally, they'll also be playing their eighth game in the past 12 days here. The Nets, on the other hand, are well-rested. They had the past two days off. Brooklyn has quietly gone 11-7 ATS its last 18 against teams which allow 99 or more ppg. Charlotte allows 100.8 overall and 102.7 on the road. 10* best bet

I'm playing on VALPARAISO. Both these teams had strong regular seasons. Both are among the top "mid-majors" in the country. (They finished the regular season ranked #1 and #2 in the CollegeInsider Mid-Major Top 25 coaches poll.) Obviously, both were hoping to be in the NCAA Tournament. Sometimes, that can lead to a team going through the motions a little. I believe both teams are motivated to win tonight though, as both have overcome their disappointment and seemed determined to prove that they should have been "dancing." That said, I look for homecourt to ultimately prove the difference. 

The Gaels were very tough (20-1) to beat at home. They don't have a senior on the entire roster though and were occasionally vulnerable on the road. Four of their five losses came away from home. They're at an extremely tough venue tonight, as the Crusaders rarely lose here. Indeed, they're 31-2 here the past two years, 16-1 this season. The Gaels entered the Georgia game averaging 77.7 ppg at home, while shooting 53.8%. However, they enter tonight's game averaging only 69.3 ppg on the road. That's going to make it tough to keep up with a Crusaders team which averages better than 78 ppg on this floor and which has averaged 81 ppg its last five overall. 

The Gaels are only 6-10 ATS as underdogs the past couple of seasons. During that time, they're just 11-24 ATS when facing a team with a winning record, after a minimum of 15 games had been played. With a healthy roster, which consists of four seniors, I look for the Crusaders to set the school record for most home wins tonight, covering the relatively small number along the way. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on NJ Tech. These teams met here a little over four months ago, as part of the Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame Classic. The Highlanders won that one by a score of 90-76. While the Highlanders are quite healthy, the Terriers are a bit banged-up. While the Terriers barely won their first round game, a 3-point win at Fordham, the Highlanders hammered Army by 14 points. While the Terriers are 1-5 ATS their last six as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, the Highlanders are 4-1 ATS their last five lined home games. These coaches are friends from their days working together at Columbia. Jones, Boston's coach, got the better of Engles, NJIT's coach, back in 2009 when the two coaches first went up against each other. (Jones was still with Columbia at the time while Engles was already with NJIT.) However, as mentioned, Engles got the beter of Jones this season. Playing at home, I expect Engles' Highlanders to have the edge again this evening, covering the small number along the way. 10* CIT Personal Favorite

I'm playing on INDIANA. I won with the 76ers (barely) on Friday, when they covered against OKC. However, even then, I acknowledged that they were a "bad team." At the time, they were playing at home and getting (slightly) more points than they are here. They were also catching the Thunder playing the front end of a b2b with a bigger game (against these same Pacers) on deck the next night. Off back-to-back wins, playing on the road, and with the tougher opponent on deck the next night, I felt the Thunder might have a difficult time covering the huge number. Tonight's game sets up much differently. Instead of playing at home, the 76ers are now on the road. Worse, they're now playing their fourth game in five nights, a difficult scheduling situation for any team. Instead of catching a team off b2b wins, they're facing an Indiana team which will be in an angry mood, due to b2b losses. No reason for the Pacers to hold back either, as they have the next two days off. The Pacers have won the last two meetings by 20 and 27 points. They're obviously a far more talented team and tonight I expect them to also be the hungrier team. With the schedule in their favor, I see this one getting ugly. 10* Personal Favorite

10* Cavs. Writeup to follow

I'm playing on Charlotte. I won with the Spurs against the Warriors on Saturday. However, I believe the value lies against them tonight. Even with Saturday's win, the Spurs are still only 3-6 ATS their last nine. While they've been "unbeatable" at home, the Spurs' have only been "very good" on the road. Tonight, they'll take on a Charlotte team which has been "very good" at home. In fact, the the Hornets have more home wins (26) than the Spurs (24) do on the road. While they were upset last time out, the Hornets are still a healthy 8-3 SU/ATS their last 11 against teams with a winning record. They've also won nine of their 11 March games overall, with both losses coming by single-digits. All things considered, I feel the number is generous and I'm grabbing all those points. 10* best bet

I'm playing on MARYLAND. I lost with the Terps in the first round but am fully willing to give them another shot in a favorable matchup today. Yes, the Terps got a little complacent last game. They still dominated almost the entire way though and I believe that their late game letdown will provide them with a wake-up call to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here. The Warriors certainly played well in their opener. However, it should be noted that they were fortunate to catch Cal without senior point guard Tyrone Wallace, who broke his hand at practice a couple of days earlier. That upset was the program's first ever NCAA Tournament win, so the Warriors can already go home happy and holding their heads high. Prior to Friday, the Warriors' schedule included very few wins over quality opponents. The last time (2002) that Hawaii was in the tourney was the year that the Terps won it all. I expect them to take advantage of today's favorable matchup, ultimately pulling away for a convincing victory. 10*

I'm playing on New Orleans. The Pelicans are obviously pretty banged-up right now and not many are going to give them a chance without Anthony Davis. They've got the schedule in their favor though, as LA just lost to another banged-up team (Memphis) yesterday. This hasn't been a good role for the Clippers. They're an ugly 9-20-1 ATS the last 30 times that they were listed as road favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range, 3-10-1 ATS their last 14. On the other hand, New Orleans is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times it was a home underdog in the 6.5 to 9 range. Needless to say, Rivers wasn't happy with his team yesterday. The Clippers are still pretty comfortably in the #4 spot (and know they can't improve on that) though and getting up for this game, when they have Golden State on deck to close out the road trip, may be easier said than done. The Pelicans, playing with triple-revenge, have never been swept by the Clippers. I expect their best effort here. 10* best bet

I'm playing on Iowa. Its true that Villanova was more consistent overall this season. However, when the Hawkeyes are "on," they've been every bit as good. Having snapped out of their funk with a close win over Temple, the type of victory a team can often build positive momentum from, I expect the Hawkeyes to bring their "A game" this afternoon. The Wildcats are a very good team, as usual. They've been bounced in the second rournd of the tournament each of the past two years though and that figures to be in the back of their heads here. They're worried about advancing, not covering. Note that the Cats are just 5-8 ATS their last 13 against teams with a winning record and 1-3 ATS their last four against teams that score 77 or more. As for the Hawkeyes, they're 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game AND, going back considerably further, 6-1 ATS their last seven as a neutral court underdog in the 6.5 to 9 point range. Remember, that Iowa's last three losses all came by four or fewer points. Also, remember that this Iowa team was 4-0 against Michigan State and Purdue this season. In a game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. 10* breakfast club

I'm playing on San Antonio. If not for the Warriors, the Spurs would be receiving a lot more attention, as they're having a fantastic season. In fact, they actually outscore teams by a greater margin per game than GS does. The Spurs have the schedule in their favor for this one. While the Warriors, who played Dallas last night, have fared pretty well in b2b spots, Golden State is also playing its sixth game in the past nine days here. That's a pretty draining schedule, particularly for a team that has the additional burden of all that extra media attention. The Warriors hammered the Spurs in the earlier meeting. That was early on in the season though. The Spurs didn't have Duncan and Aldridge was still adjusting. It was also at Golden State. This time, the game is at San Antonio, where the Spurs are 34-0, and Popovich's team has all its weapons and is firing on all cylinders. The Spurs typically play very well at this time of the year, as they're 27-13 ATS (36-4 SU) in March the past 2+ seasons, a month that has been good to them for a lot longer than that. Payback time. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers won by eight at OKC exactly one month ago. Last spring, they beat the Thunder by a dozen points here. With the schedule in their favor, I like their chances again today. While it wasn't exactly taxing, the Thunder played (at Philly) yesterday, winning by 14 but failing to cover the inflated spread. They're only 4-7-1 ATS (5-7 SU) when playing the second of b2b games. They're in a few other unfavorable situations/roles (for them) too. One might expect them to fare better in this situation, but the Thunder are only 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. They're also 9-17-1 ATS against Eastern Conference teams, 1-6-1 ATS against teams from the Central. Additionally, they're 8-18-1 ATS off a double-digit win and 6-12-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins. Even off the OT loss vs. Toronto, the Pacers remain a healthy 23-12 ATS against teams with a winning record. I look for them to bring their 'A Game' again this evening. 10* best bet

I'm playing on Duke. Yale is certainly going to be the sentimental favorite. The Ivy League school that never makes it to the tournament against the perennial powerhouse that everyone loves to hate. Sentiment doesn't cash tickets though. Talent does. Yale was indeed impressive against Baylor. Duke had its wake up call though and won't be caught off guard. Admittedly, the Blue Devils don't have the depth that they'd like, a problem that may rear its head as they advance into the later rounds. The starting lineup is still considerably stronger than the one they'll face today though. The Blue Devils are 11-5 ATS the past couple of seasons after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game, a situation they're 59-34 ATS in over the years. They were laying -14.5 points when they beat Yale by 19 points back in late November and I believe that getting them at less than half that price is a bargain. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Miami. Not too often that you'll find a #11 seed favored over a #3 seed. However, the Shockers probably deserved better than an #11 seed to begin with. I won with Wichita State in its "play in" game against Vanderbilt, so I'm well aware of what this team brings to the table. As you're aware, the Shockers followed up that victory with an impressive blowout of Arizona last game. That said, I still don't feel they should be favored here. I also believe that with this being an early game, that the "extra" play in game may take a toll here. Regardless, they're going to find a determined and underrated Miami team waiting for them. True, the Canes have failed to cover four in a row for the second time this season. The previous time that happened, they followed it up with a double-digit blowout of Duke. Overall, they're a perect 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) the past couple of seasons, after failing to cover the spread in their previous three or more games, going a profitable 28-12 ATS their last 40 lined games in that situation. The Canes know they're an underdog here and I expect them to come in with a chip on their shoulder. Angel Rodriguez noted: “I think throughout the year we’ve been disrespected, to a lot of people we haven’t done enough to prove ourselves, but this is March, and the spread doesn’t mean anything." Don't be shocked when Miami advances. 10* Breakfast Club

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I know its not much "fun" taking a bad team against a good team. I'm not here for fun though; my only concern is winners. In this case, I believe the "bad team:" is in a good spot. Obviously, with a 30-37-1 ATS (9-59 SU!) the 76ers have been pretty inconsistent again this season. They're continuing to fight hard on most nights though, as they did yesterday. Yes, the 76ers are playing the second of b2b games, a situation they haven't been too good (5-9 ATS) in. It should be noted that the Thunder play a bigger game (at Indiana) tomorrow though, which may be more of a factor than Philly's second of b2b games. (The last time that Thunder played the front-end of b2b games, they lost outright against Minnesota, falling to 0-2 SU/ATS their last two in that situation.) The 76ers are 5-0 their last five as home underdogs of greater than 15 points and 16-8-1 ATS in 25 games against teams from the West. I'm grabbing the points. 10* best bet

I'm playing on MARYLAND. Many people like taking #12 seeds. After Yale and Arkansas Little Rock, a pair of #12 seeds, both won yesterday, that may be more true than ever today. This is one #5 vs. #12 matchup where I see the fifth seed having a significant advantage though. The Terps have more size, more skill, better athletes and better ball handlers. Needless to say, they're more battle-tested against quality opposition. Though this game is out in the Pacific Northwest (Spokane) I expect the venue and tempo to favor the Terps. While the Jackrabbits are just 6-8 ATS their last 14 neutral court games, the Terps are 5-1 SU/ATS in neutral court games this season, 2-0 SU/ATS when the total ranged from 140 to 144.5. Going back a couple of years finds them at 7-1 ATS when playing a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range; they're 17-4 ATS their last 21 in that situation. The Terps, who are off a loss against Michigan State, have responded to their last two losses with a double-digit win in their next game, beating Illinois by 26 and Nebraska by 11. I expect them to pull away for another double-digit win this afternoon. 10* Rd Of 64 G.O.Y.

I’m playing on UTAH. While they’ve never met on a neutral court, the Utes are 10-4 in 14 all-time meetings with the Bulldogs. I expect them to have a considerable advantage on Thursday night. You may recall that the Utes made it all the way to the Sweet 16 last season. I believe that experience will serve them well this year. I also believe that this game being played at Denver, where they’ll receive strong fan support, will benefit the Utes. The blowout loss to Oregon notwithstanding, the Utes had a great season. The NCAA Selection Committee ranked them as the 11th best team in the country. I believe the Oregon loss will serve as a wake-up call and I look for them to pull away for a double-digit win. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on INDIANA. The home team has won both meetings this season. The Raptors won by seven at Toronto. The Pacers returned the favor with a 16-point win here at Indiana. I expect homecourt to be the difference again this evening. Off Tuesday's win at Milwaukee, as a slight underdog, note that the Raptors are a money-burning 12-21-1 ATS (3-6 ATS this season) their last 34 off an "upset" win. While the Raptors are tough, the Pacers beat the Spurs and the Celtics in their last two games here. They're 23-11 ATS against winning teams and I look for them to improve on those stats tonight. 10* Personal Fav

I’m playing on DUKE. The Blue Devils didn’t fare too well against the spread down the stretch. However, this should be a favorable first round matchup for them. To their credit, the Seahawks have come a very long way in two years. Prior to  Kevin Keatts taking over the program in 2014, the Seahawks had finished at 9-23. While we’ve seen #13 seeds take down #4 seeds before, the Seahawks had trouble just getting here. They beat Charleston and Northeastern, their first two opponents in the CAA Tourney, by only five points. Then, they needed OT to beat Hofstra in the finals. Making their first trip to the Big Dance in 10 years, the Seahawks are just thrilled to be here. They’ll get a reality check on Thursday afternoon. 10* Breakfast Club

I'm playing on Nevada. The Wolfpack had hoped to be going to a "bigger" tournament. However, they're likely less disappointed than the Grizzlies. Montana just played three games in three days, losing the final one of those on 3/12 against Weber State in the Big Sky title game. The Grizzlies closed as slight favorites in that one (I played against them there too) but lost by three. To be that close to the Big Dance, only to not get there, has to sting. This is the first tournament of any kind for the Wolfpack in (four) years. So, while disappointed, they're also excited. Nevada senior Tyron Criswell noted: "Coach asked us, 'Guys, do you want to play in this thing?, ‘We can win it.' We all agreed that we wanted to keep playing." Criswell went on to say: "I definitely want to go out a winner." The Wolfpack are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) off a conference loss this season and they outscored teams by more than 10 points per game on this floor. I like their chances here. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Tulsa. While these teams have a number of similar stats, one is far more experienced than the other. The Wolverines certanly had an exciting journey here, a pair of extremely close wins in the Big Ten Tourney getting them here. This is still a relatively young Michigan team though; they've got two seniors and both are hurt. On the other hand, Tulsa is among the most experienced teams in the country. As guard James Woodard commented: "We've got to use our veteran-laden team as an advantage in this tournament because we have been around a long time. We've seen every situation." The Golden Hurricane start four seniors and a junior and they've got another three seniors on the bench, all of whom are regular contributors. I expect that experience to ultimately be the difference and am grabbing the points. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on Charlotte. I successfully played against the Hornets in their last game. Now, I'm reversing direction and coming back with a play on them. Even though they weren't at their best against the Mavs on Monday, the Hornets have been playing very well in recent weeks. Prior to the Dallas loss, they'd won seven straight, covering six of those. Still, they know they can't waste that winning streak by squandering winnable games like this one. They've got the schedule in their favor as Orlando is off a win against Denver last night. The last time that the Magic played the second of b2b games, they lost by 37 points. The Hornets have more talent, more to play for and the schedule/venue in their favor; I see another blowout shaping up here. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on the LA Lakers. I lost with the Lakers in their last game but I'm more than willing to give them another shot tonight. The Kings have Cousins back but they're still a mess right now. Cousins isn't happy and while he'll surely put up big stats, that doesn't translate into "W's." The Kings have dropped nine of 10 and 17 of 22. Any thoughts of the playoffs are now history. They've lost five straight and failed to cover the last four of those. Yet, they're the ones laying points on the road tonight. I guess that says something about the Lakers, who are indeed enduring a dismal season. Kobe and co. don't want to go down without at least a couple more wins though and they know opportunities like this one will be few and far between. The fact that they're playing with "triple revenge," looking to avoid the season sweep should provide some further motivation. With the Kings at 1-8 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as road favorites of three or fewer points, I'm sticking with LA. 10* best bet

I'm playing on INDIANA. Playing at Atlanta, the second of b2b road games, the Pacers didn't show up for their last game, a 29-point loss. I'm not going to over-react to one bad game though, as they'd been playing really well before that. They beat the Spurs in their most recent game here at Indiana and are still 3-1 SU/ATS their last four overall. Off the bad loss, a little lower than Boston in the standings AND with a pair of difficult games on deck (Toronto and OKC) the Pacers arguably need this game more than the Celtics. While the Celts are 16-16 on the road, the Pacers are 19-11 at home. They're 9-4-1 ATS (11-3 SU) their last 14 as home favorites of three or fewer points and I expect them to bounce back with an important win. 10* violator

I'm playing on DALLAS. While the Hornets come in as the much hotter team, I believe this is a generous line on the visitors. With even more difficult games ahead, the Mavs, who are battling for the final playoff spot in the West, badly need this one. They're 2-0 ATS as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. Charlotte, on the other hand, is 2-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. While the Hornets won at Dallas earlier this season, the Mavs won here last season. While Charlotte has had some big wins of late, the Mavs have been playing very close (OT three straight) road games. I won't be surprised if this one also goes down to the wire and am grabbing the points. 10* best bet

I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. Typically, my "Personal Favorite" selections are on teams which are favored. However, I'll occasionally deviate from that, when I believe that the "underdog" will win "outright." That's how I see tonight's game playing out. 

The Lakers were no match for the Cavs last game. However, they'd won two in a row before that, knocking off the Magic and Warriors. They're 10-6 ATS in the second half of the season, compared to New York's 7-10 ATS mark. Note that the Lakers are expected to get Lou Williams back today, which should provide a considerable boost. While he often comes off the bench, Williams ranks third on the team in scoring. 

The Knicks are 0-2 ATS as road favorites of three or fewer points. They lost both games (at Denver and at Milwaukee) by double-digits. The Lakers, on the other hand, are 3-0 SU/ATS in 2016 as home dogs of three or fewer points, beating Brooklyn, New Orleans and Phoenix. While I won't consider it an "upset," I see another win for the Lakers here. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on LA. With all due respect to Lebron, I believe the wrong team is favored in this one. Sure, the Cavs handled the Clippers at Cleveland. However, the Clippers' home record (22-11) is better than Cleveland's (19-12) mark on the road. Off their big win against the Lakers, note that the Cavs are only 11-14 ATS off a double-digit win. While many don't concern themselves with the next day, I believe its worth mentioning that the Cavs play tomorrow while the Clippers do not.  While the Cavs are 2-3 ATS as road favorites of three or fewer points, the Clippers are 3-1 ATS as home dogs of three or less. They're also 15-7 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. I expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon, serving notice that they're still one of the teams to beat in the West. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on Arkansas Little Rock. The second-seeded Warhawks fell behind 12-0 out of the gate yesterday but then "woke up" and took care of business against UT-Arlington. That was a team that they beat both times in the regular season and that they felt confident against. This afternoon's opponent is on an entirely different level though. The Trojans have an impressive 28 wins but they know that doesn't ensure them of an NCAA berth. Rather than sweat it out later, they know they need to take care of business today. They've got more depth than the Warhawks and a better defense. As well as the Warhawks have played defensively of late, the Trojans are still better. They allow a mere 59.9 ppg and they're nearly every bit as good away from home, allowing just 60.7 ppg on 38.6% shooting. I believe that'll be the difference today. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I had a big play (10* Personal Favorite) on New Orleans when these teams faced each other back on 1/23. With the schedule and venue in their favor, the Pelicans would win by 17 points. Here's an excerpt from that game below: 

"...Situation favors the home team here. Off back to back double-digit wins and winners of four of their last five, the Pelicans are arguably playing their best basketball of the season. Prior to yesterday, one could have said the exact same thing about the Bucks. The Bucks were off b2b double-digit wins and had won four of their previous five. Milwaukee lost a hard-fought game at Houston last night though. The fact that they battled all the way back, only to still fall short, makes it hard to take. Off that close loss and now playing the final leg of a 4-game road trip, I feel that they may not have enough left to contend with Davis and co. A look ahead to the return trip home - and the expected return of coach Jason Kidd - may also be in order. Davis, who has 67 points in his last two games, had this to say of the team's recent play: "We're just playing desperate. That's it. That's how we've got to play from here on out. Like coach said, in a couple weeks we're going to see where our season goes - whether it's just playing it out or every game matters. New Orleans has owned the Bucks here. I expect more "desperate" play, leading to another win and cover ... "
Things set up MUCH differently this time though. Off Wednesday's 114-108 victory over Miami, the Bucks have won 10 of their last 15 games here, going 8-5-2 ATS. On the other hand, the Pelicans have a 1-6 record their last seven. This time, the Bucks are well-rested while the Pelicans are off an OT loss last night and now playing their third game in four days. With the schedule and venue in their favor, the revenge-minded Bucks get it done. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Temple. I won with the Owls yesterday and I really like them again this afternoon. While Temple had a nice tune-up game for this one (against USF) the Huskies left everything on the floor - and then some - to beat Cincy. Indeed, they needed four OT periods to dispatch of the pesky Bearcats. Give the Huskies credit for pulling off the win (Cincy's Mick Cronin said the game was "taken" from his team by the refs) but that marathon figures to take a toll on them today. The Owls won both regular season meetings and each game was very close. The two were decided by an average of just 3.5 points, each by five or less. While its true that it can sometimes be tough to beat a team three times in the same season, its also true that winning builds confidence. The Owls, who also won at Cincy this season, had the better road record than the Huskies this year. They know they can beat this team and they'll come in with a lot of confidence. I expect them to be "fresher" and I'll gladly take any points that they're willing to give me. 10* best bet 

I'm playing on DAYTON. I won with the Flyers yesterday and I really like their chances again this afternoon. While the Hawks won the lone regular season meeting, that was at St. Joseph's. (Today's game is at Barclays Center) The Hawks had a tougher matchup yesterday and it showed. While Dayton cruised to a double-digit victory over Richmond, St Joe's needed a furious second half rally to come back and beat George Washington. Give the Hawks credit for completing that comeback, as that win likely punched their ticket to the Big Dance. However, they had to really leave it all on the floor and may be feeling the effects a little more than the Flyers today. While I certainly respect the Hawks, I believe the Flyers are a little stingier on the defensive side of the ball. While the Flyers gave up 54 points yesterday, the Hawks gave up 80. They've now allowed 78 or more in three straight games. I look for that to be the difference as revenge-minded Dayton scratches and claws its way to the important win. 10* Breakfast Club

I'm playing on LSU. While I won with the Aggies yesterday, I believe that they're laying too large a number here and that the Tigers are a more dangerous team than many realize. Many of you know that I also played on LSU yesterday. Here's an excerpt from that writeup: "...LSU is led by SEC Freshman Of The Year, Ben Simmons. The Tigers' star may in fact be the #1 overall pick in the NBA draft. If he's not, he'll be close. On pace to become the first player ever to finish in the SEC’s top five for scoring (19.6 ppg), rebounds (11.9) and assists (5.0) in the same season, Simmons does it all. Simmons and co. are better than they showed down the stretch and they'll be looking to prove it here..." Of course, the Aggies know all about Simmons, as he had a near triple-double when the Tigers beat the Aggies at LSU. (The Aggies won the game at Texas A&M.) While both teams obviously want to win, this game is arguably much bigger for LSU. The Aggies know they're going dancing. However, if the Tigers don't win this tournament, or at least today's game, Simmons will head off to the NBA without ever having a chance to play in the NCAA Tournament. He didn't play much yesterday but I expect the Tigers' star to lead his team to AT LEAST a cover this afternoon. 10* Breakfast Club (Shocker)

I'm playing on TULSA. The Tigers are off a huge win in their last game. Clearly, they're still an athletic team which is very capable. That said, they've been inconsistent. In fact, they've won just five of their last 14 games and they haven't won two in a row since way back in January. They're 1-6 SU/ATS off a conference win. With four wins in their final five games, the Golden Hurricane have been far more consistent down the stretch. True, the lone loss came at Memphis. They're 5-2 SU/ATS the last seven times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss.

While they're 17-14 record may seem disappointing, the Tigers knew this was supposed to be a rebuiding year. Not so for the Golden Hurricane. They came in to the season with high expectations and they still believe they've got what it takes to make it to the Big Dance. They know that a big run in this tournament is mandatory to make that a reality. While the Tigers have struggled off a conference win, Tulsa has thrived in that situation. Indeed, the Golden Hurricane are 29-13 ATS (31-11 SU) the past few seasons, off an AAC win. 

Note that although this game is being played at the Amway Center (Orlando) the line is essentially the same as it was when Tulsa played at Memphis, the Golden Hurricane laying a small number. I believe thats providing us with excellent value and I'm planning on taking advantage. 10* AAC Tourney GOY.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The 76ers haven't won a game in more than a month. They've continued to fight hard (on most nights) though and tonight's game should provide them with an opportunity to finally stop the bleeding. Knowing that they'll play again at Brooklyn in a few days should provide some added incentive to take care of business and protect their homecourt tonight. The teams have split both meetings this season, the home team winning each time. The 76ers won by five here last month, as 1-point favorites. Tonight, however, we're even getting a few extra points to work with. Catching the Nets playing the final leg of a 9-game road trip, I believe thats providing us with excellent value. 10* best bet

I'm playing on LSU. Great win for the Vols yesterday. In addition to being a bitter rival, Vanderbilt was a talented team. They'll be up against an even better one here though. LSU is led by SEC Freshman Of The Year, Ben Simmons. The Tigers' star may in fact be the #1 overall pick in the NBA draft. If he's not, he'll be close. On pace to become the first player ever to finish in the SEC’s top five for scoring (19.6 ppg), rebounds (11.9) and assists (5.0) in the same season, Simmons does it all. Simmons and co. are better than they showed down the stretch and they'll be looking to prove it here. 

The Vols won the lone reg. season meeting. However, that was at Tennessee. Off yesterday's emotional victory, one which saw them squander a 15-point lead before rallying to hang on, and now playing their third game in three days, I expect the Vols to come back down to earth. The well-rested Tigers are 12-8 ATS (13-7 SU) the last 20 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. I say its payback time. 10* SEC Tourney GOY

I'm playing on TEMPLE. 10* While the Bulls played well yesterday, they're stepping up in a class here. The Owls are a well-coached team. Fran Dunphy, AAC men's basketball coach of the year for the second straight year, will have his team ready. The Owls know they weren't expected to finish as highly in the conference as they did. Dunphy will make sure that they're aware its all for nothing if they don't take of business here. Even with yesterday's win, the Bulls are just 1-4 SU/ATS their last five tournament games. This is the first time that they will have played back-to-back games all season and I expect it to catch up with them. 10* ESPN Breakfast Club

I'm playing on TORONTO. A few recent ATS losses by the Raptors, combined with a hot streak by the Hawks, have helped to keep this line lower than it could have been. I believe that the low line is providing us with excellent value. Yes, the Hawks are looking to avenge an earlier loss at Atlanta. However, they've won just four of their last nine in that situation, so that isn't generally a huge motivator for them. Also, that game was more than three months ago, so any "revenge factor" figures to have little meaning. More important, to me at least, is the fact that the Hawks are playing the final leg of a road trip that started out in California. They haven't been home yet this month and could easily get caught looking ahead to the return home. While the Hawks are 17-16 on the road, the Raptors are 24-7 here at home. They've won three of the last four meetings with the Hawks here at Toronto, all three wins coming by seven or more points, two of them by double-digits. Toronto coach Casey hasn't been happy with his team's play lately and I expect him to have them ready to go tonight. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. This one sets up well for the Cavaliers, one of the best defensive teams in the country. Virginia is playing very well right now. The Cavs are off a 22-point destruction of Louisville and are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three. Give the Jackets credit. They played well in their regular season finale, earning a win against Pittsburgh. Then, yesterday, they knocked off Clemson. They needed OT to do so though and that game figures to take a toll on them as they step up in class against the Cavs. Virginia won't get caught looking ahead either as the Jackets actually upset them back on 1/9. The Cavs know that if they won that game that they would have won their third straight ACC title. Payback time. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on FLORIDA. While not alot separates these teams in the stats department, I believe the Gators' defensive edge will put them over the top. Both these teams were 9-9 in conference play, the Gators having the slightly superior overall record. Florida won the lone regular season meeting by four points. Its true that John Egbunu will be limited for the Gators, as his hand will be in a brace. The Gators are a very balanced team though and if they need to go with a smaller lineup, I believe they'll still cause trouble for Arkansas. While the Razorbacks allow oppposing teams to score 76 ppg (45.1%) on the road, the Gators allow 69.5 ppg (41.8%) on the road. The Gators won twice as many road/neutral games as did Arkansas, including a neutral site win over Oklahoma State. The Hogs were 0-3 SU/ATS when playing on a neutral court. Those losses weren't exactly against the likes of UNC either as they came against G-Tech, Stanford and Mercer. Both teams will be desperate but I like the Gators to get it done. 10* Breakfast Club (Part 2) *Part 1 tips @ 12 ET*

I'm playing on Richmond. The Rams have the better record and are the higher seed. However, I feel that Richmond is favored for good reason. While they didn't have a great regular season, I believe the Spiders have themselves a great matchup on Thursday afternoon. Though they're known for their defense, the Rams still allowed 72.5 ppg on the road, opposing teams shooging 47.3% against them. The Spiders can score anywhere they play. They averaged 77.7 ppg overall and 76.4 (47.7%) when playing away from home. The Rams, on the other hand, managed a mere 64.5 ppg (41.1%) on the road. The Spiders have long dominated this matchup and I look for their superior offense to ultimately be too much for the Rams to handle. 10* breakfast club

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I successfully played against both these teams in their last game. I took the points with the 76ers when they covered against the Heat on 3/6 and I laid the points with the Bulls when they beat the Bucks the next night. Tonight, I feel the situation favors the Bucks.

While the road team has actually won both meetings this season, both teams are still much better at home. That's particularly true of the Bucks; they're just 8-26 on the road but 18-12 here at home. Note that home record is better than Miami's 16-14 mark on the road. 

Prior to the 1/29 loss, the Bucks had beaten the Heat twice in a row on this floor. In fact, they're 5-1 ATS the last six meetings, all five of those covers resulting in SU victories. I expect them to be at their best again tonight. 10* Best Bet.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Although they won by only five last time out, the Hornets are playing really well these days. They've won four straight and are 12-3 since the end of January. That includes an 8-3 ATS mark their last 11. A date with the Pelicans should allow them to add to those numbers.

The Pelicans eked out a 2-point win for in this season's earlier meeting. That was at New Orleans though and both teams are much better on their home floor. The Pelicans are above .500 at home but just 7-23 on the road. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 12-19 on the road but 22-9 here at Charlotte. 

While they managed to rally for a win, as slight underdogs against the Kings last time out, the Pelicans are far from healthy these days. They're also just 3-9 ATS off an "upset" win. 

The Hornets are 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS their last 17 against teams which allow 99 or more points per game. I expect a blowout. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on GEORGETOWN. The Hoyas may have had some trouble against good teams this season but they have no trouble beating up on weak teams like this one. Now 12-2 their last 14 against teams with a losing record, the Hoyas won all seven games against losing teams this season, going 3-0 SU/ATS the last three of those. Most recently, they destroyed St John's by a score of 92-67. The Hoyas won both regular season meetings against Depaul by double-digits. While Depaul is 1-11 ATS its last 12 neutral court games, the Hoyas covered the spread in both their neutral site games this season. The Hoyas need to "get healthy" with a big blowout win and a first round date with Depaul should be just what the doctor ordered. 10* personal favorite 

I'm playing on Stanford. I successfully played against the Cardinal in their last game. That was a road game against an angry Arizona team though while this is a neutral site game against Washington, a team Stanford matches up much better against. 

Its offense vs. defense in this one. Washington scores more than 80 ppg but also allows more than 80. Stanford scores less than 70 but also allows less than 70. That said, I believe the team that more effectively dictates the tempo will likely emerge victorious - and I believe that team will be Stanford.

This Cardinal team, which played one of the toughest schedules in the country, isn't getting much respect. However, I'll note that they are very balanced, which should serve them well here. In fact, its the first Stanford team with five players averaging in double-digits in scoring since 1948-49. 

While the Huskies were 1-3 ATS in neutral court games this season, the Cardinal were 2-0 ATS, beating Arkansas last time on a neutral court. The Cardinal won a close one against the Huskies in last year's tournament and a similar result this afternoon won't surprise. 10* best bet

I'm playing on EASTERN WASHINGTON. You wouldn't normally find a team, which was 0-4 SU/ATS its last four games, laying double-digits. However, this is a very favorable matchup for the Eagles. I believe that they'll capitalize on that favorable matchup and use it to build their momentum and regain their confidence with a blowout win. 

Eastern Washington coach Jim Hayford noted: "I'm the most confident coach in the world on a four-game losing streak. As I look back on these last couple of weeks, I like that my team is hungry for what lies ahead."

The Eagles players share their coach's optimism. When asked about the 4-game skid, forward Venky Jois responded: "Everyone here has a 100 percent confidence that we can go four games in a row the other way."

The Lumberjacks have lost 13 of their last 15 and have just three wins since the end of November. They just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Eagles. The Eagles score more than 82 ppg overall and more than 84 in conference play. The Lumberjacks averaged less than 70 points overall and just 63.6 away from home. 

Lumberjacks head coach Jack Murphy commented: "They really got up and down on the court on us. They did a great job offensively and on the offensive glass ... "

The Eagles won the two regular season meetings by 34 combined points. I'm expecting another one-sided affair. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I believe that this will be a tough spot for the Blazers. They wore down at the end of their road trip, losing their final three. This is their first game back home from that long trip and they've got a game against Golden State up next. The Wizards, who lost by one vs. Indiana last time out, are just as good on the road as they are at home. They're also 8-2 ATS off an "upset" loss. Playing with revenge from a MLK Day loss at Washington, I look for them to bounce back and earn AT LEAST the cover again tonight. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on ST. Mary's. Both these teams are very good on both sides of the ball and they're certainly very familiar with each other. It should be a great battle. The Gaels won both regular season meetings and they had the better overall record this season. Yet, its Gonzaga which checks in as a small favorite. While I certainly respect the Bulldogs, I believe thats providing us with value on the Gaels. St. Mary's has the best shoooting percentage in the country. Combine that with a Top 5 defensive ranking in terms of points allowed and they're going to be tough to beat. I look for the Gaels to dictate the tempo and ultimately find a way to win. 10* Main Event. 

I'm playing on Portland State. While the overall records are similar, the Vikings are arguably playing better basketball right now. They've won four of their last five, including a win at Northern Colorado, and come in with some confidence. The Bears also come in off a win in their last game, an upset of Montana. Keep in mind that they'd lost seven of eight before that though. Also, lets remember that the Vikings average more ppg than do the Bears AND that they also allow less. With this projected to be a high-scoring game, the tempo should favor Portland State. The Vikings are 2-0 SU/ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 160s, the Bears are 2-5 ATS. I expect the Vikings to pull away and I'll lay the small number. 10* Big Sky Tourney GOY

I'm playing on NC State. Neither of these teams is (likely) going to win this tournament. To do so, they'd have to win five games and beat some of the top teams in the country, starting with Duke on Wednesday. Both will be looking to win this one but I believe NC State will have the advantage. I played against the Wolfpack in their last game. That was on the road, against a hungry Notre Dame team though. Wake Forest represents a much easier opponent, one I believe they can and will handle. Since they won a home game vs. the Wolfpack back on 1/10, the Deacons have gone an awful 1-14. One of those losses came at NC State, a 10-point win by the Wolfpack. Anthony Cat Barber had a career high 38 points in that game. I expect him to lead the Wolfpack to another win and cover on Tuesday afternoon. 10* Breakfast Club

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bulls have been a "streaky" team. They lost five straight in early-mid Feb. That skid was followed by three straight wins. Next, came four more losses. Off a win in their last game and with the schedule in their favor, I look for the Bulls to continue "streaking" in the positive direction again this evening. 

Even with the recent losses, the Bulls are still in the thick of the playoff race. Currently back in the eighth and final spot and with tougher games against the likes of San Antonio, Miami and Toronto coming up, the Bulls know they need to take care of business tonight.

Butler came back last game and provided an immediate lift. He's their best offensive weapon and was badly missed. 

While the Bulls had yesteday off, the Bucks are off a hard fought loss vs OKC. The Bulls have dominated the Bucks here in recent seasons and that continued in the earlier game here this year, an 11-point win for Chicago. More of the same here. 10* Personal Favorite