Sports Picks & Predictions

 I'm playing on CALGARY (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Ti-Cats are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After last year's loss in the Grey Cup, the Stamps are going to be in an angry mood. They've still got loads of talent, more than enough to take out their frustrations on the visiting Cats. With an O/U line in the mid 50s, note that Calgary is a perfect 14-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 52 or greater. The Stamps went a lucrative 11-3 ATS in those games. That includes an 11-2 ATS mark when the line fell in the 52 to 56.5 range. That includes a 60-1 destruction of Hamilton the last time the teams met here. This one isn't likely to get that ugly again but the Stamps will eventually pull away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on WINNIPEG. Its been quite some time since a rookie QB started Week 1 of the CFL season, after coming straight from college. In fact, it hasn't happened since Anthony Calvillo's rookie season, some 24 years ago. (Calvillo would go on to break basically every major CFL passing record: most TD's, most passing yards, most completions etc.) With the Bombers set to start a rookie, the line has climbed from its opener and not many are giving them much of a chance. That doesn't mean that Chris Steveler can't be successful on Thursday night though. Steveler, a finalist for the Walter Payton award, threw for over 6000 yards in college. The 23-year old has excellent speed and he was 10 of 10 in his preseason debut. While the Eskimos are obviously going to present a tough test, Steveler is surrounded with plenty of weapons and is backed by a Winnipeg team which was strong last season. The Bombers beat the Eskimos in both regular season meetings last year before falling by seven points in the playoffs. With revenge on their minds, expect them to give their guests all they can handle again on opening night. 

I'm playing the METS on the RUN-LINE (10* ANNIHILATOR, +1.5 runs) In a game where runs could well be a premium, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs with DeGrom and the Mets. While Tanaka has been winning, he's still got a 4.79 ERA on the season and a 4.96 ERA his past three starts. On the road, his ERA climbs to 5.17. On the other hand, DeGrom has been in dominant form all season. Through 12 starts, he's got a superb 1.49 ERA. Over his past eight starts? He's got a 0.47 ERA with 68 K's in 47 1/3 innings. While I like the Mets to win this one outright, with three of those eight games resulting in a 1-run losses, I'll happily lay the price for the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF MONTH). Many will look at how close the Cavs came in Game 1 and be quick to grab the points. However, I'm not one of them. Instead, I expect the Warriors to deliver a blowout. The Cavs had their chance in Game 1. Fair or not, the over-turned offensive foul call was a killer. Likewise, JR Smith running the ball out, killed their chances of a game winning shot. To come so close to scoring a huge upset, only to lose in that fashion, is going to be very hard to bounce back from. While I did win with them in Game 7 at Boston, note that the Cavs have now won just one of their past five road games. Meanwhile, the Warriors have had their wake-up call. When firing on all cylinders and playing on this floor, they're nearly unstoppable. Expect a decisive victory. *June GOM

I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* MAIN EVENT). Obviously, homecourt has been extremely significant in this series. That said, with everything on the line, I'm going with the game's best player. We're even getting a few points to boot. Note that the Cavs are 15-10-1 ATS in the underdog role. Expect Lebron to do his thing, getting enough help from the supporting cast to punch his ticket to another finals. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* MAIN EVENT). I'm not writing Lebron and co. off yet. Homecourt has been huge in this series and the Cavs have now won their last three games here by 74 combined points. The Cavs are 3-2 ATS (4-1 SU) when trailing in a series. Going back further finds them at 23-15 AT their last 38 in that situation. Expect this series to go the distance, the Cavs covering on their home floor, once again. 

I'm playing TB on the run-line (10* PERS FAV, +1.5 runs) While he's hasn't been quite as dominant on the road, Snell has been outstanding at home. In fact, in four home starts, he's got an outstanding 1.07 ERA and 0.829 WHIP. Why take the extra +1.5 runs? In his last start here, Snell was a hard-luck loser in a 1-0 final. Though he didn't factor in the decision, Snell was also on the wrong end of a 1-0 game here against these same Red Sox, back at the end of March. In other words, if getting an extra +1.5 runs in each of Snell's four home starts, one would be a perfect 4-0. Porcello bounced back with a quality start last time out. However, he's still got an ugly 6.75 ERA (1.673 WHIP) his past three. Already this season, he's been on the mound when Boston has beaten the Rays by a single run on two separate occasions. In what could well be another close one, where runs are at a premium, I'm taking the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* BEST BET). Homecourt has obviously been very significant in this series, thus far. However, I believe that changes tonight. The Cavs have major momentum and confidence on their side and I don't see them losing another game in this series. With Lebron doing his thing, look for Cleveland, 15-9-1 ATS its last 25 as an underdog, to grab control of the series. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). I attended the season opener between these two teams, here at Oracle. You may recall that game, the crowd thought that the Warriors hit the game-winner at the buzzer but it was waved off, upon further review. Like that first game of the season, I also see tonight's pivotal game "coming down to the wire." Expect the Rockets to give the champs all they can handle, taking the game down to the wire and improving to 12-6 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Celtics certainly looked like the better team through the first two games. However, I'm not counting out the Cavs just yet. Not by a long-shot. The Cavs are still 34-13 at home. They've beaten the Celtics five of the last six meetings on this floor and they won their last game here (against Toronto) by 35 points. Energized by the home crowd, Lebron and co. bounce back, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing the LA ANGELS on the run-line (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs) Verlander got the better of Richards twice last September. Both starters pitched very well in both games. The game here at LA finished in a 1-0 final, in favor of Houston. In a game were runs could again well be at a premium, I believe that getting an extra +1.5 runs, at this price, is providing excellent value. Undeniably, Verlander has been great. However, the Astros haven't been providing him with any run support and have actually lost each of his last three starts. While not as dominant as Verlander, Richards, 49 K's in less than 40 innings, is more than capable of rising to the occasion. Over his last two starts, he's got 12 K's vs. just one walk and has allowed only three combined runs through 12 innings. The Angels won both those games and are 6-2 this season, when he takes the mound. In May, the Angels are already 4-1 when coming off a loss. Expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.' 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. A loss in Game 1 means that the Rockets have squandered the home-court advantage that they worked so hard for. All is not necessarily lost though, provided they bounce back with their best effort on Wednesday. Backs to the wall, I expect them to do exactly that. Even with the Game 1 loss, the Rockets are 44-10 the last 54 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. They're also 19-6 (SU) the past 25 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss, 11-3 their last 14 when off an 'upset' loss. While the champs have now won three straight, they're just 8-20-2 ATS the past 30 times that they were off three or more consecutive victories. Expect the Rockets to dig deep and to even up the series. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Yesterday, I suggested that the Cavs "smelled the blood in the water." I feel the same way here. Up 3-1 and off a blowout win at New Orleans, the champs have found their groove. They're now 20-13 ATS (25-8 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when leading in a playoff series. The Warriors know the importance of closing out the series and not giving the pesky Pelicans any sort of life. Expect them to pull away for a convincing victory. 

I'm playing TORONTO on RUN-LINE. (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs) I actually really like the Jays to win this one outright. However, Seattle's last win came by a single run and Toronto is off a 1-run game of its own. In a game where runs could be hard to come by, I like the Jays at +1.5 runs even better. Its true that Stroman's overall numbers are bad; thats working in our favor in creating line value. However, he's better than those numbers indicate and he finally got things turned around last start. Despite taking a tough luck loss, Stroman allowed just two runs through seven complete innings last time out. A game against Seattle should provide him with confidence. In two starts against the Mariners, both last season, Stroman has a stellar 2.08 ERA. The Jays won 7-2 and 4-2. Admittedly, Paxton has been impressive (26 K's!) his last couple of starts; thats also working in our favor in creating line value though. Don't forget that he's still got a 4.71 ERA in four road starts though. A Canadian, Paxton will surely want to perform well in his home country. However, lets also keep in mind that he's got a 6.86 ERA in four starts against the Jays. His team did win two of those - but both wins (2-1 and 3-2) came by a single run. The Jays won the other two by a combined score of 18-4. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.' 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* VIOLATOR). Already down 0-2 in the series and down by double-digits in Game 3, it would have been easy for the Raptors to quit. They didn't do that. Rather, they showed their resilience and battled all the way back. Unfortunately, for Raptor fans, it still wasn't enough. Lebron hit another game-winner at the buzzer. The Raptors gave it everything they had in that Game 3 comeback. To have done so, only to have their hearts-broken in that manner, is going to be extremely tough to bounce back from. When they find themselves down double-digits in this one, which I expect to happen, fighting back is going to prove far more difficult. The Cavs smell the blood in the water and know they don't want to give the Raptors any life. Look for them to close things out, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing ARIZONA on the run-line (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs) The Astros easily won yesterday's opener, Cole mowing down the Arizona hitters. However, we should see a much better effort from the Dbax this evening. Morton, admittedly, has been outstanding. (Some of you will recall that we won with the Astros in his last start.) Greinke, however, just doesn't lose at home. At least, not very often. He's 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in three starts here this season. The Dbax did lose the first of those. That was by a single run though, a 2-1 loss back on 3/31. Opposing batters are hitting just .179 against him here. While thats only three starts, consider that Greinke was also 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 18 starts last season. Thats a combined 15-1 the past two seasons. Greinke's last two starts against the Astros (2017 and 2016) resulted in 3-0 and 2-0 victories. Through 13 2/3 shutout innings, Greinke recorded 20 K's. Expect Arizona to bounce back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.'

I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While the Dodgers are off a win at Arizona yesterday afternoon, the Padres had a much needed day off. That allowed them an earlier start in getting ready for the series in Mexico. Lucchesi gets the call and he's been outstanding. The Dodgers swept the Padres at Petco last month but didnt have to face Lucchesi. Through six starts, he's 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. In 32 1/3 innings, he's recorded 35 K's. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). While they've cost me a couple of times, I still believe that the Cavs are the superior team in this matchup. With everything on the line, Lebron comes through. This time, covering the spread along the way. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Pelicans were certainly impressive in sweeping Portland. However, facing the defending champs on the road is a whole different matter. As of this writing, Curry remains doubtful for this game. While its possible that Curry could return, the Warriors current trio of Durant, Green and Thompson, along with their supporting cast, is more than enough to take care of business at Oracle. Note that the Warriors are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the past six times that they were a host in this series. While the Pelicans are 6-6 SU (4-8 ATS) their last 12 when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, the Warriors are a perfect 6-0 SU the past six times that they played with three or more day's rest. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing SAN JOSE on the puck-line (10* PUCK-LINE GAME OF YEAR, +1.5 goals.) I really like the Sharks' chances of winning this one 'outright.' After a 7-0 loss in Game 1, they're going to be EXTREMELY motivated. However, in a game which figures to be MUCH closer than the opener, getting an extra +1.5 goals at this price is too good a bargain to pass up. While that may sound funny, given that we still have to lay a fairly high price, its all relative to what it should really be. (A line history of Pinnacle shows that the Sharks +1.5 was as low as -204 and as high as -244 on gameday for Game 1.) The Sharks are 49-28 (+16.4) vs. the money-line the past 2+ seasons, after allowing four or more goals. During that stretch, they're also 42-22 (+15.8) vs. the money-line after a loss by two more goals. Expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST a 'puck-line cover.' 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* BEST BET). While I lost with the Cavs on Wednesday, I'm coming right back with them again here. Lebron's 3-pointer just before the buzzer was an absolute killer for the Pacers. They'd fought so hard, had rallied from a deficit, had shut the Cavs down only to get beaten in that manner. I expect it have a negative carry-over effect on the Pacers. The Cavs are 17-3 SU the last 20 times that they were leading in a playoff series. Now that they're leading for the first time in this series, I expect them to finish things off. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE (10* MAIN EVENT). Homecourt has certainly proven significant in this series. I expect that to be the case again this evening. While they failed to cover the last game here, the Bucks have won both games on this floor. They won those two games by an average of 13 points. Note that, as of this writing, this line is a little lower than the other lines were for the Bucks here. I feel thats providing us with plenty of value. Expect the Bucks to extend the series, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). Up 2-1 in the series, the Pacers had a real chance to also take Game 4. It didn't happen. Instead, Lebron, Korver and co. prevailed. Thats going to leave the Pacers thinking about "what might have been" while also serving as a "wake-up call" for the Cavs. Having fought so hard to regain homecourt advantage, dont expect the Cavs to just squander it. Rather, expect them to deliver their most lopsided victory of the playoffs, to date. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I've won with both the 'under' (Game 1) and the 'over' (Game3) in this series. In Game 2, I backed the Rockets. For Game 4, however, I feel that the value lies with the T-Wolves. Minnesota nearly scored an upset in Game 1, showing it could compete with the top seed. Off that tough Game 1 loss, I wasn't surprised to see the T-Wolves struggle in Game 2. However, they responded with a great effort in Game 3. Now, they really have a series. Butler is a bit banged-up but he's as tough as they come. He still managed 28 points to go along with seven boards, five assists and a steal. Needless to say, he makes this team a lot better. Certainly better than your typical #8 seed. Off their Game 3 win, the Wolves now really believe that they can win. They're 31-11 at home, identical to the Rockets 31-11 record on the road. With the Rockets just 2-8 ATS their last 10, I'm grabbing all those generous points. 

I'm playing TEXAS on the run-line (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs.) While I expect the Rangers to win this one 'outright,' getting an extra +1.5 runs at this reasonable a price is too good to pass up. Though its been a tough start overall, the Rangers closed out the weekend with a big win, providing them some positive momentum, heading into the new week. A visit from Oakland should be welcomed by Texas fans. Note that the Rangers are 13-7 the last 20 times that they hosted the A's, (four of those decided by a single run.) Moore's numbers aren't good. However, like the Rangers, he brings some positive momentum into today's game as he got back on track in a big way last time out. Through seven complete innings, he allowed a single unearned run, on just five hits. Texas won 7-2. While Moore's teams are just 1-3 his last four against Oakland, two of those losses were by a single run. So, they'd have been 3-1 if getting +1.5 runs in each. Cahill is indeed off an impressive outing. Lets not forget that he began the season in the minors and that he had an 8.22 ERA (in limited innings) after coming over to the A.L. last season. With the A's still just 38-58 their last 96 vs. southpaw starters, I'll take the +1.5 runs with the home team. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). After losing Game 1, the Heat responded with a big win in Game 2. After dropping Game 3, I expect them to again bounce back in Game 4. Including that Game 2 victory, note that the Heat are a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times that they found themselves trailing in a playoff series. Needless to say, the 76'ers have come along way. They've had a great season and are playing well. That said, as I noted when backing Miami in Game 2, this is 'new territory' for the 76'ers. They're not used to being in the playoffs and they're not used to leading in a playoff series. Look for a highly determined effort by the Heat, as they make the necessary adjustments, bouncing back and improving to 10-5 ATS their last 15 off a double-digit loss. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO (10* MAIN EVENT). First off, condolences to the entire Popovich family on yesterday's passing of Erin Popovich. I won with the Warriors in Game 1. I'm not surprised that they're up 2-0. With or without their coach on the sidelines, I expect the Spurs to respond tonight. Eventually, the absence of Curry figures to catch up with the champs, if only for the game. I expect tonight to be that night. The Spurs have won 11 in a row here; their 33-8 home record ranked behind only Houston and Toronto. They're 4-1 ATS their last five, when off three or more consec. losses. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. As you know, the Pelicans won both games at Portland. That makes this a must win game for the Blazers. I expect them to respond with their best effort. The Pelicans were no better at home than they were on the road this season and they allow more points here (111.9 ppg) than they do on the road. Even after dropping the first two games, the Blazers remain a healthy 54-30-1 ATS against teams which allow 106 or more ppg. Both regular season meetings here were close, each decided by six or fewer points. The Blazers won outright their last visit here. Expect them to take this one down to the wire with an excellent shot at an upset. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). Some will look at Game 1 and see how close the T-Wolves came to scoring an upset. They'll use that as reason to back them in Game 2. However, its been my experience that big road underdogs which let an opportunity slip away in Game 1, typically don't fare too well in Game 2. Rather, the home favorite has received its 'wake-up call' and brings a better effort in the second game. Thats what I expect to happen on Wednesday. The T-Wolves get outscored on the road where they are now just 17-25 on the season. The Rockets, on the other hand, are 35-7 here at Houston, outscoring teams by an average score of 114.1 to 104.9. Fully 'woken up,' expect an even larger margin of victory here. 

I'm playing MINNESOTA on the run-line. (10* MAIN EVENt, +1.5 runs) Runs could well be at a premium in this one, making an extra +1.5 runs a very attractive proposition. Carrasco struggled in his first start but has been sharp in his next two games. Berrios, however, has been even better. Through three starts, he's got a dominant 2.18 ERA and 0.629 WHIP. Through 20 2/3 innings, he's recorded 24 K's while walking only one batter. Berrios, who was born in nearby Bayamon, will be fired up and will have the support of the crowd. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.'

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Heat were leading at halftime of Game 1 but wilted in the second half. Down a game, I fully expect them to battle for the entire four quarters on Monday. Keep in mind that this is new territory for the 76ers. As well as they've been playing, leading in a playoff series is a new experience for them. Also, note that Miami is a perfect 3-0 ATS its last three, when trailing in a playoff series. The Heat are also 29-17 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a double-digit loss. Throw in a 4-0-1 ATS record the past five times that they allowed 130 or more points and I expect them to bounce back a huge effort, en route to AT LEAST a cover in Game 2. 

I'm playing CINCINNATI on the run-line. (10* BREAKFAST CLUB, +1.5 runs.) Prior to entering this series, each of these teams saw two of the three games in their previous series, decided by a single run. Though the first few games of this series have all been decided by multiple runs, I won't be surprised to see 'a close one' this afternoon. While the Reds have admittedly gotten off to a tough start, they've been getting quality pitching from Bailey. Last time out, Bailey allowed a mere two hits and one run, through six complete innings. He struck out seven without walking a single batter. His lone home start came against Scherzer. In that one, he allowed just four hits, also permitting just one run, again through six complete innings. While Martinez has pitched well, it should be noted that he's already issued 10 walks. Expect a motivated Reds team, which is looking to avoid being swept, to bounce back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.' 

I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* MAIN EVENT). The Blazers got back on track just when it mattered, earning a key win over the Jazz in the final game of the regular season. That got them this home game vs. the Pelicans and I expect them to make the most of it. Much stronger at home, the Blazers are also 10-4 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. Expect the combination of homecourt and an advantage in the backcourt to lead to those numbers improving Saturday night. 

I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the RUN-LINE. (10* PERS FAV, +1.5 runs.) In a game where offense could well be at a premium, I feel that the extra +1.5 runs could well come into play. Ross took the loss last time out, allowing four runs through six complete innings. However, that was respectable, considering that he was pitching at Houston. I like the fact that he recorded seven K's without walking a single batter. (Note that Blach has more walks than K's this season.) Now, he's back home where he beat Colorado in his first start, a 'quality' effort which saw him allow three runs through six innings. Blach has been stingy against the Dodgers. However, the Mariners hammered out 10 hits (and six earned runs) in just 4 2/3 innings against him. The Padres are a perfect 4-0 when Blach starts against them. They won those four games by a combined score of 19-7. While I like their chances of another outright win, I absolutely expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.' 

I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Jazz enter as the hotter team, I expect homecourt to ultimately make the difference tonight. While the Jazz are 20-20 on the road, the Blazers are 27-13 at home. Sure, the Blazers have lost four in a row. All those came on the road though. Back home, where they've gone 4-1 SU/ATS their last five against the Jazz, expect them to bounce back with their best effort. 

I'm playing KC on the run-line (10* ANNIHILATOR, +1.5 runs.) I like KC to win this one 'outright.' However, getting an extra +1.5 runs at this reasonable a price is even more appealing. Both starters check in with identical 7.45 ERAs through two starts. While his numbers don't look too great so far, lets not forget that Duffy was the Royals' Opening Day starter. Also, he retired 17 of the final 20 hitters he faced at Cleveland on Friday. So, despite the 3-2 loss, he's bringing some positive momentum into this afternoon's game. These same starters opposed each other in 2016. That game finished with a 4-3 final score, in favor of KC. Including that result, the Royals are 4-2 in Duffy's six career starts vs. Seattle. Both losses came by a single run. In other words, they'd be a perfect 6-0, if getting +1.5 runs in each of those. Expect AT LEAST another run-line victory here. 

 I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). The Hawks are still playing hard. They beat Washington and Boston in their last two games. In addition to this being their home finale, its their final game of the year overall. They'll be anxious to give the fans a good effort. The 76ers, on the other hand, have a home game against Milwaukee on deck tomorrow, followed by the playoffs. They've come back to earth a little of late, as they've failed to cover in each of their last two games. Expect the Hawks to be the hungrier team and for that to lead to AT LEAST another ATS victory. 

I'm playing BALTIMORE on the run-line. (10* ANNIHILATOR, +1.5 runs.) While I like the O's chances of winnig this one outright, getting an extra +1.5 runs at this price is a bargain. Cashner was sharp last time out, limiting the Yankees to a single run through six innings. He's made two starts against the Jays, his team won 3-1 and lost the other by a single run. Sanchez is off a 1-run game of his own. Only two of his last 10 starts, dating back to last season, have resulted in Toronto victories by more than a run. The O's were 2-0 in two 2017 games against Sanchez. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover' here. 

I'm playing on LA (10* MAIN EVENT). As you're likely aware, the Pelicans need this game for playoff positioning while the Clippers have been eliminated from postseason contention. Obviously, thats why the Pelicans are favored by so many points, despite playing in the road. Many are going to be willing to lay the big number, too. They'll think that the Clippers are going to roll over. However, I don't expect that to be the case. Doc Rivers isn't that kind of coach. He knows that this game has playoff implications and he isn't going to allow his players to go through the motions. Rivers had this to say: "I think I have to play the guys against New Orleans, honestly. I think we really have to go after that game. I just believe in protecting the league. That's what we should do, and I hope we do that." Expect the Clippers to "come to play," bouncing back with their best effort and improving to 6-2 ATS the past eight times that they allowed 130 or more points in their previous game. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS (10* MOTIVATIONAL MISMATCH). Playing their final home game of the season, I expect this game to mean more to the Grizzlies than it does to the Pistons. Detroit has actually played well recently. However, its a case of too little, too late. With their home finale on deck tomorrow, it's going to be hard for them to get up for a meaningless game against Memphis. The Grizzlies already played the Pistons tough at Detroit, losing by just two. Expect them to rise to the occasion, earning AT LEAST a cover while providing the home fans with a small measure of hope for next season. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pelicans are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a 20-point loss, at Indiana, on Thursday, the champs are going to be in an angry mood. This is their regular season home finale, so they'll have some added motivation to close things out with a big win. While the Warriors had yesterday off, the Pelicans are off a game at Phoenix and playing their third game in the past four days. The Warriors have absolutely dominated New Orleans over the past five years. Expect that to continue here. 

I'm playing TEXAS on the run-line (10* PERS FAV, +1.5 runs) While I like the Rangers to win this one outright, I feel that the run-line presents us with an even better opportunity. Though he's had success against the Rangers for his career, Estrada's last start against them, a game here last June, saw him allow six earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. Moore has thrived against the Jays over his career. He's made 10 starts against them, going 5-2 with a 3.27 ERA. His team (all 10 games were with TB) won eight of those games. The only two times he lost were by scores of 2-0 and 3-0. So, even in those games, it wasn't his fault. Though the Astros did reach him for four runs in four innings in his first start, I like the fact that he had six K's against 0 walks. He's got great stuff and is 28 years old. Command has sometimes been an issue, the reason that the zero walks was a positive sign. After taking the loss against the Astros, he's going to be anxious for a big effort in front of his new fans. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.'

I'm playing on TORONTO (10* PERS FAV). The Raptors got back on track with a big win against Boston on Wednesday. That victory snapped an extended ATS skid and I expect them to build off it here. While the Raptors had last night off, the Pacers are off a victory over the defending champs. That game had been preceded by a 4-game trip out West for the Pacers, three games in California and the final game in the high altitude of Denver. This will mark the Pacers' seventh straight game in a different arena than the one in which they played their previous game. Playing their third in four nights, against a Raptor team which is a dominant 32-7 here at Toronto, expect it to catch up to them. Raptors roll. 

I'm playing MILWAUKEE on the run-line (10* GAME OF WEEK, +1.5 runs) While I really like the Brewers' chances of winning this one 'outright,' in a game which could well be close, I'm more than willing to lay the short price to get an extra +1.5 runs to work with. Suter has a spectacular 0.73 ERA (0.892 WHIP) in two starts vs. the Cubs. Both games were decided by a single run. Lester has seen his team go 4-2 in six starts against the Brewers. However, two of those four victories came by a single run - including his lone start here at Milwaukee. So, he'd be just 2-4 in those games, if asked to lay -1.5 runs in each. That lone start at Milwaukee may have resulted in a win for the Cubs but Lester didn't personally fare too well. He'd last just four innings, giving up four earned runs, while walking five batters. Speaking of "not faring too well," Lester got pounded by the lowly Marlins in this season's first start, giving up four runs (3 earned) in just 3 1/3 innings. During that span, he allowed seven hits and three walks, striking out just two. That translates to an 8.11 ERA and a 3.003 WHIP. At 28, the 6-foot-5 Suter is expecting his best season yet. Note that he recorded 25 K's in 21 spring innings, walking just five. The Brewers are already 2-0 against southpaw starters this season. That brings them to an outstanding 49-36 (+22.7) against the money-line, vs. southpaw starters, the past 2+ seasons. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.' 

I’m playing on TORONTO (10* MAIN EVENT). Both teams played and lost yesterday. Today, I expect the Raptors to be the team which bounces back with a big win and cover. The home team has won all three meetings in the season series. The Raptors took the game here at Toronto by a dominating 111-91 score. In fact, they're a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the past five times that they hosted the Celtics. Expect them to continue that dominance, improving to 33-15 ATS their last 48 divisional games along the way. 

I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the run-line (10* ANNIHILATOR, +1.5 runs) While I expect the Padres to win this one 'outright,' I believe that the run-line is providing us with even stronger value. Note that the Rockies have already seen half of their games decided by a single run. Ross, a former All Star, has worked his way back from injury. He's off a strong spring and is reportedly back to where he was prior to the injury he sustained in 2016. Ross had this to say: "It was a long road back. I've just now started to feel like myself again. I was pitching, but I wasn't myself. It took a long time. But it came back, and I'm thankful it did ..." SD manager Andy Green added: "This guy's worked incredibly hard to fight back from a shoulder injury and surgery. His stuff is back. His stuff is really good. ... He's found himself again, glad it's in a Padres uniform." Even with yesterday's loss, the Padres are still a lucrative 51-39 (+22) vs. the money-line the last 2+ seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" on Tuesday. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). Its true that the champs have struggled of late. Its true that Curry remains out. Iguodala, too. Don't expect that to slow them down Saturday night though. Off three straight losses and having dropped two of this season's three meetings against Sacramento, Durant and co. are going to be all business here. The Warriors have won 15 of their last 16, when off an 'upset' loss. They're also 29-20-1 ATS (39-11 SU) the past 50 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. Dating back to 3/8 win over the Spurs, the Warriors have only won three games. All three of those victories came by double-digits. Expect another big win here. 

I'm playing TORONTO on the run-line (10* RUN-LINE, +1.5 runs.) While I like the Jays to win this one outright, at this price, I'm more than willing to increase my chances of success with an extra 1.5 runs. Estrada has long had success against the Yankees; his teams are 10-4 in his 14 starts against them. Sabathia, on the other hand, went only three innings in his last visit to Toronto. Though he had success here early in his career, the Yankees are 1-4 in his last five starts here. Even after losing the first two games, the Jays are 91-78 at home the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the Yankees are 79-92 on the road. Expect the Jays to get to Sabathia and for them to bounce back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.'

I'm playing on DALLAS (10* BEST BET). Off Wednesday's 10-point loss to the Lakers, I expect the Mavs to bounce back with their best effort on Friday. The Mavs are 12-4 ATS their last 16, off a double-digit loss. Going back further finds them at a lucrative 41-20-2 ATS their last 63 in that situaion. Having lost all three of this season's meetings with Minnesota, the Mavs are going to be hungry. A look at the Twolves last six road games reveals that NONE of them resulted in a victory of more than five points. In fact, they were just 2-4 SU in those six road games. With the T-Wolves just 6-14 ATS their last 20 overall and potentially looking ahead to their next game (Utah) I'm grabbing the points with the revenge-minded home team. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* BEST BET). These teams have been involved in three close games this season. All three were decided by five points or less. In each case, the home team finished on top. Playing at home, where they've dominated the Nets in recent seasons, I expect the Magic to have the advantage this evening. While Orlando's 15-21 home record is certainly nothing to get excited about, its considerably better than the Nets 10-27 mark on the road. Expect the well-rested Magic to improve to 10-4 ATS their last 14, when facing a team which allows 106 or more points per game. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). While the Cavs have won their past four, they've been terrible (15-40-1 ATS!) as favorites this season. The Heat, on the other hand, are a solid 22-15 ATS when listed in the underdog role. The Heat are also 41-22 ATS the past few seasons, when facing a team with a winning record, during the second half of the season. During that same stretch, Miami is also a healthy 70-48-2 ATS when playing in the revenge role. The Heat lost by two the last time these teams met. Expect them to give the Cavs all they can handle once again, with a great shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on UTAH (10* BEST BET). After failing to qualify for the 'Big Dance,' t would have been easy for either of these teams to pack it in. Neither have done so. Each has put together an impressive run to get here. I believe that that the Utes bring a little more to the table though. Off a victory over St. Mary's last game, note that Utah was only the second team (Gonzaga also did so) to defeat the Gaels on their home floor this season. The Hilltoppers have been all over the place this season. Costa Rica, Bahamas and last week in LA, prior to their visit to Stillwater. While they've had plenty of time off, I believe that all the travel will finally take a toll. Expect the Utes, last team left standing from the Pac-12, to finish on top.

I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). Back in late December, the 76ers upset the Nuggets, at Denver. I expect the revenge-minded Nuggets to bring their 'A game' for Monday's rematch. Note that Denver is an outstanding 7-3 ATS the past 10 times that it attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. Its true that the Nuggets are playing Game 5 of a 7-game road trip. However, they've had the past two days off, after winning at both Chicago and Washington. Note that the Nuggets are 8-3 SU the last 11 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Knowing the final two games of the trip (at Toronto and at OKC) are going to be difficult, I expect the Nuggets to go all out here. Expect AT LEAST a cover, the Nuggets improving to 6-3-1 ATS the past 10 times that they were off three or more consecutive road games. 

I'm playing on OKC (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). Needless to say, this is a huge game in the Northwest Division. After a lengthy winning streak, the Blazers have dropped their last two. Facing a revenge-minded OKC team which is quietly playing some of its best basketball, I expect Portland's losing streak to reach three games. Off a win over Miami last time out, the Thunder have quietly won seven of their past eight. They were 5-2-1 ATS in those games. Having dropped all three games in the season series and sitting one game behind the Blazers in the standings, the Thunder are going to be extremely hungry. Their 26-11 home record is considerably better than Portland's 19-15 mark on the road. OKC finishes on top.

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* MAIN EVENT). Admittedly, the Wildcats are a very strong team. However,  I believe the same can be said of the Red Raiders. Nova did pull away late for a double-digit win against WVU. However, the Mountaineers gave them all they could handle almost the entire way. Keep in mind that this may be the Raiders' best team. They've beaten Kansas this season and they're going to come in confident that they can win this game. Expect the Raiders to improve to 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they played with one day's rest, or less, in between games. 

I'm playing on DUKE (10* SWEET 16 GOY) The Orange deserve a lot of credit for beating a good Michigan State team. Upsetting TCU was also impressive. In both cases, they were able to slow down the tempo and play excellent defense against an opponent which was unfamiliar with their style. This time, however, they face a team which knows how to beat them. The Blue Devils already hammered the Orange by 16 points a month ago. Including that loss, each of Syracuse's last three losses all came by 'double-digits,' each by a minimum of 15. While the Orange are obviously an extremely stingy team, the Blue Devils' advantage on the offensive side of the ball is much bigger. The Blue Devils are playing at a very high level right now; their last six victories have all been by double-digits. They've come by an average of 19.5 points

I'm playing on INDIANA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pacers were 2-0 against the Clippers last season, winning by an average of 15 points per game. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect them to finish on top again this evening. The Pacers had yesterday off. They also have tomorrow off. Additionally, they haven't played back-to-back games (two games in two days) for more than two weeks. Off a loss last time out and knowing they'll face these same Clippers in less than a week, at LA, I expect a highly motivated effort from the Pacers.  The Clippers also had yesterday off. However, unlike their hosts, they've had to play b2b games a couple of times recently. That means that this will mark their sixth game in the past nine days. The Pacers are 21-11 ATS (25-7 SU) when listed as favorites. Expect a win and cover for the home team. 

I'm playing on K-STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Kentucky comes in on a roll. Always well coached and with always loaded with excellent athletes, Kentucky has to feel fortunate with the way things are working out. I fully expect them to receive a very tough test here though. Note that prior to blowing out Buffalo, which had been "trash-talking," Kentucky's previous three victories had all come by five or fewer points. I've stated several times that I felt the Big 12 was the strongest conference, "from top to bottom," this season. While they may have gotten a fortunate matchup with UMBC, with four teams from the Big 12 in the Sweet 16, its clear that the (K-State) Wildcats are "battle-tested" from conference play. KSU has been playing without its top player, Dean Wade. However, as of Monday morning, Wade stated the following: "I am like 98 percent sure I will play. I don't know if they can keep me out of this one. This is big time. I'm excited. It gives me another couple of days to heal. I am starting to feel a lot better. My day-by-day gets a lot better. This gives me a few more days to heal and recover." Its true that Kentucky has historically dominated K-State. However, Weber has been here before. His team has a score to settle and he's looking to prove his critics wrong. I expect Weber to have his team ready and I expect them to take this game down to the wire with a great shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO. I won with the Magic when they hosted the Raptors on Tuesday. At the time, I mentioned that they'd been quietlly competitive here at Orlando. Once again, they've got a favorable schedule. While they had yesterday off, the 76ers are off a Wednesday game vs. Memphis. Playing their third game in the past four days, it should be easy for the 76ers to take their hosts lightly. The Magic are going to be hungry though; the 76ers beat them by double-digits in each of this season's meetings and the Magic are going to be looking to show they can play with them. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bucks are considerably better at home than they are on the road. Monday's loss at Cleveland, which will have them in an 'angry' mood, dropped the Bucks to 15-19 on the road. However, they've won back-to-back games here at home, where they're a healthy 22-14. While the Bucks had yesterday off, the Clippers are off a big 'TV' game at Minnesota. This will be their sixth straight road game. They'll be playing their third game in four days and their fifth game in the past seven. With the schedule in their favor, expect the Bucks, who know they'll face these same Clippers at LA in less than a week, to bounce back with a big win and cover. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* BEST BET). With a game against the Cavs on deck tomorrow, it should be easy for the Raptors to look past the lowly Magic tonight. The Magic come in well-rested. Unlike their guests, they don't have to play tomorrow. Yes, the Raptors did beat them by 13 here a couple of weeks ago. However, that was the ONLY one of the the Magic's last 10 games, here at Orlando, which resulted in a double-digit loss. (Orlando was 5-5 in those games, the other four losses all came by nine or less.) Even with that result, the Magid are still a healthy 10-3 ATS their last 13 against teams which score 106 or more ppg. I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on WVU (10* 2ND RND GAME OF YEAR). The Mountaineers get a very favorable matchup here. I expect this well-coached team to take full advantage. The Herd come in hot and they're victory over Wichita State shows that they're worthy of respect. Still, the battle-tested Mountaineers, now 21-8-1 ATS their last 30 NCAA tournament games, 9-3 ATS when favored in the -9.5 to -12 range, are going to simply be too much for them. The Herd allowed an average of 79 ppg. Playing against much tougher opposition, the Mountaineers allowed 69 ppg. 

You may recall that these two schools, which are less than 200 miles apart, used to play each other twice annually. The series stopped a few years back (2014) and there was some bad blood in the process. After the Marshall coach said "we're back" and called him "afraid,"  WVU coach Huggins responded with: "He can say I'm afraid all he wants. I've probably coached 1,116 more games than he has. It's ridiculous to say something like that. We're afraid. Yeah, we're really afraid. It's crazy, you know? We’ve beaten Duke. Mike is a pretty good coach. Was I afraid? I wasn't afraid playing Duke. Played Boeheim. We used to play him every year. Great coach. I wasn't afraid. Why would I be afraid? The thing that’s most laughable, and I'll get in trouble for saying it I know, but I'm to the point in my life where I really don't care. How about this? ‘We're back.’ That was their sixth loss in a row. ‘We’re back.’ ‘We're back’ all right. Honestly it's laughable ..... "

Huggins and the Mountaineers did get to face Marshall in 2015, after that exchange. WVU won by 18. Expect the Mountaineers, 14-7 ATS their last 21 (excluding pushes) lined games against teams which allow 77 or more points per game, to keep the pedal to the medal the entire way, en route to another convincing victory.

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* PERS FAV). The Red Raiders received a tougher test in the first round than the Gators. Those results have helped in keeping this line very low. I feel that low number is providing us with excellent value with a very strong Texas Tech team. Sure, the Raiders were tested. That can be a good thing. They responded to that test by pulling away for a 10-point win, narrowly missing the cover. Note that they're 11-2 the past 13 times that they were off a game in which they allowed 60 or fewer points, 21-4 their past 25 in that situation. The Big 12 was tough this season. Yet, the Raiders thrived. They hit 46.4% of their field goals on offense. Florida, by comparison, hits 43.4%. On the other side, the Gators allow opposing teams to hit 42.7% of their field goals, while allowing 69.2 ppg. Texas Tech, on the other hand, allows 64.6 ppg, opposing teams hitting a mere 40.6% of their field goals. Arguably stronger on both sides of the ball, expect the Red Raiders to punch their ticket for the next round, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK (10* BEST BET). As bad as the Knicks have been, I believe that they're providing us with plenty of value today. Even with a win last time out, the Hornets are still only 11-22 on the road. I don't believe that they should currently be "laying a touchdown" away from home, regardless of the venue. Note that the Knicks' 16-17 home record is considerably better than Charlotte's road record. Not surprisingly, the home team is already 2-0 in the season series. The Knicks won by five, as 2-point underdogs, in the earlier game here. They're 4-1 SU/ATS their last five as a host in the series. With the Knicks at 3-1 ATS in home games when the O/U line was set at 220 or higher, I'm grabbing all those generous points. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). I won with the Hornets in their last game. However, tonight they're laying points, not getting them. That said, I now feel that the value has shifted to their opponent. While neither team will be going to the playoffs, the Hawks come in playing with 'triple revenge,' having lost all three of this season's earlier meetings. The Hornets have won just one of their past seven games and that lone SU victory was a non-cover at Phoenix. Off four straight losses and with their next six games on the road, the Hawks know that they need to take advantage of a struggling guest, now playing out the string. If not, it could be a long time before they win again. Expect the Hawks the hungrier team, as they earn AT LEAST a cover and improve to 12-6 ATS the past 18 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. 

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* GAME OF YEAR). From top-to-bottom, the Big 12 was arguably the best conference in the country this year. Despite playing in that highly competitive conference, Texas Tech still managed to earn 24 victories. Having been here four of the past five years and with Texas Tech slumping down the stretch, the Lumberjacks will be a popular upset pick. Don't buy into that. Expect the Red Raiders' much tougher schedule to pay dividends on Thursday evening, along with the fact that the game is being played in Dallas, the superior team pulling away for a convincing victory. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF MONTH). Sure, the Lakers are playing well of late. However, getting the champs at this low a line, with the schedule in their favor, is a steal. Of course, the low line is a result of the injuries to Curry and Green. Obviously, those are two significant losses. However, Durant is still going to be the best player on the floor and he's still got enough of a supporting cast to take care of business here. Note that Kuzma hurt his ankle for LA in the third quarter of last night's game. He did return to play in the fourth but it was "clearly bothering him." (according to Lakers reporter Mike Trudel) Even if he goes, its going to be tough to be 100% effective, when playing the second game of a b2b situation, on an ankle thats anything less than 100%. Render him less effective than normal and the Lakers are in trouble; with Ingram out, Kuzma has been doing a lot for them. Either way, note that the Lakers are just 4-6 ATS (3-7 SU) when playing the second of b2b games. Off b2b losses, the champs are going to be in an angry mood. They've only lost two in a row one other time this season and they responded with an 18-point win. The Warriors, whp are well-rested here, are 13-1 SU their last 14, off a loss when favored. Expect them to improve on those stats tonight, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on HARVARD (10* BEST BET). Both teams are disappointed to be here. However, while Harvard has itself - and perhaps fate (Seth Jones injury) the Golden Eagles are feeling 'snubbed.' As of this writing, the status of Harvard's Seth Jones remains up in the air. He's a great player and the Crimson could certainly use him tonight. While he was in pain when he left the game against Penn, the knee injury didn't appear that bad - he was also seen shooting on the sidelines of yesterday's practice. So, its definiitely possible that he goes. Either way, the Crimson are an extrenely stingy team. They allow 66.5 ppg. By comparison, Marquette allows 78.5 ppg. Harvard limits opposing teams to a 42.2% fg shooting percentage. Marquette, on the other hand, allows teams to connect on 47.6% of their field goals. With Harvard its last 7-2-1 ATS as an underdog and Marquette feeling disappointed/snubbed at not making the NCAA Tournament, I'm grabbing all those generous points with the superior defensive team. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA GULF COAST (10* MISMATCH). Do the Cowboys deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament? Probably, in my opinion. Regardless of what side of that debate you might be on, they absolutely feel snubbed. Of course, they'll say all the right things about still wanting to come and show everybody how good they are tonight. They surely want to do exactly that. After suffering that type of disappointment and dealing with all the emotion, thats a lot easier said than done though. Regardless of what they say, its likely going to be hard for them to get up for this game. The Eagles have absolutely thrived (20-5 ATS L25!) as underdogs over the years and they've also had plenty of succes in March. Having score more than 90 points nine different times this season, this is a team which can score points with the best of them. While they'd also like to be in the NCAA Tournament, at least they know its their fault they're not there. I expect them to be the hungrier team tonight and am grabbing all the points I can get. 

I'm playing on RHODE ISLAND (10* MAIN EVENT). These teams split a pair of regular season meetings, each winning on its home floor. I expect the Rams to have the advantage in this afternoon's rubber game. While Davidson is playing well, I don't think the Rams are getting enough respect. Not only are they the #1 seed but they're also the defending champs. The Wildcats, on the other hand, are in their first finals since coming over to the A-10. Look for the Rams' big game experience and championship pedigree to show through, as they become the first repeat A-10 champs since Temple did so from 2008-2010, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Cavs already dominated the Tar Heels in the regular season meeting. I expect them to finish on top once again this evening. UNC is just 5-9-1 ATS its last 15 tournament championship games. The Tar Heels are also just 4-6-2 ATS the last dozen times that they faced a team which allows 64 or fewer points per game. Of course, at just 53.1 ppg allowed, Virginia falls into that category. Defense wins champiionships. At least, today in the ACC. Expect the #1 seed to make a statement. 

I'm playing on DENVER (10* GAME OF WEEK). The home team has easily won both meetings so far this season. The Lakers won by 18, at LA. The Nuggets won by 15, here at Denver. Not surprising, given that the Nuggets have a 24-10 record here, as compared to an 11-20 mark on the road.The teams will face each other again, at LA, on Tuesday. Knowing that to be the case, I expect the Nuggets to go all out to again "hold serve" at home. Not only do the Nuggets score more than 111 ppg here, they also allow just 105.6 ppg. By comparison, the Lakers allow a whopping 113.4 ppg on the road. Off b2b losses and with four losses in their past six games, the Nuggets are going to be hungry. Expect them to bounce back, improving to 9-4 the last 13 times that they were off an "upset" loss, while covering the reasonable number along the way. 

I'm playing on TOLEDO (10* PERS FAV). The Eagles may have had the edge in the regular season. However, I expect the Rockets to emerge victorious, when it really matters. Both teams won yesterday. Eastern Michigan beat Akron by nine points. Toledo won by only two, against Miami Ohio. While the Eagles' win was arguably more impressive, I expect Toledo's very close margin of victory to work in its favor here. Its also worth pointing out that the Rockets are an outstanding 46-24 ATS their last 70 lined games, when playing with one day or less of rest in between games. (During the same stretch, Eastern Michigan is just 31-44 ATS when doing so.) Thats ancient history though. Right now, this year's Toledo team scores 80.1 ppg on the road while Eastern Michigan score just 68.7 ppg on the road. Expect the Rockets to dictate tempo and for them to finish on top. 

I'm playing on WKU (10* VIOLATOR). The Blazers managed to eke out a cover yesterday. However, they're stepping up significantly in class here and I expect them to stumble. WKU is 3-0 ATS its last three on a neutral court and 5-1-1 ATS its last seven, after allowing 80 or more points in its previous game. Even with yesterday's victory, the Blazers are just 2-10 ATS their last 12 neutral site games. I'm laying the small number with what I consider to be the superior team. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* VIOLATOR). The Nets are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. At the end of a road trip, the Nets figure to be already looking forward to getting home. Off four straight losses, the Hornets can't afford to look ahead to anything. They know that they absolutely need to take care of business here. The Hornets hosted the Nets a couple of weeks ago. Laying -8.5, they won by 15. Expect another double-digit victory here.  

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA (10* PERS FAV). Its true that the Sooners had some trouble at the betting window, during the regular season. However, I believe that they'll prove to be a superior team than their instate rivals this evening. The Cowboys closed out the season off b2b wins. However, they haven't won three straight Big 12 games all season. While the Cowboys are 1-5 SU their past six March games, the Sooners are 9-2 SU their last 11 in March. They've got the much stronger offense (86 ppg vs. 76.9 ppg) and I expect that to ultimately prove the difference here.

I'm playing on PORTLAND STATE (10* BIG SKY CONF TOURNEY GAME OF YEAR). The Hornets somehow managed to win both regular season meetings. However, when it really counts, I expect the Vikings to win big. Portland State had a good season, finishing with 19 wins. With four wins in their final five games, the Vikings come in with some positive momentum. With this game being played at Reno, a neutral site, its worth noting that this is a team which is comfortable playing away from home. In fact, they had a better record on the road than at home this season, the only team in the Big Sky which can make that claim. At the PK80 Invitational, a neutral site, the Vikings went toe-to-toe with the likes of Duke, Butler and Stanford. They were 3-0 ATS in those games, covering vs. Duke, very nearly upsetting Butler and beating Stanford outright. The Hornets, on the other hand, were a dismal 1-17 away from home, that lone win coming at Portland State. An experienced team, hungry to take the next step, expect the Vikings to avenge those regular season losses in convincing fashion. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* VIOLATOR). I liked what I saw from the Bulls in their last game, a 108-100 win over Dallas. While Boston obviously represents a step up in class from the Mavs, I stil expect the Bulls to carry their positive momentum into this evening's game. Off a loss last time out, the Celtics are just 5-5 their past 10 games. The Bulls, who have had a couple days off since the Dallas win, are 7-4 ATS when playing with exactly two day's rest in between games. Going back further finds them at 22-14 ATS in that situation the past couple of seasons. While they lost at Boston, the Bulls already beat the Celtics here. They were listed as 5.5 point underdogs yet won outright by 23. We're getting considerably more points to work with here and I expect AT LEAST another cover. 

I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO (10* MAIN EVENT). These teams just faced each other here on Friday. Down at halftime, the Bobcats rallied for a 75-66 victory. They also won (92-87) when they hosted the RedHawks a few weeks ago. However, I expect the RedHawks to have the advantage this evening and feel that they're favored for good reason. Even factoring in Friday's result, the Bobcats are still just 3-11 on the road. They get outscored by an average of 79.5 to 71.1 on the road. On the other hand, the RedHawks are still 8-5 here at home, outscoring teams by average of more than 10 points (77.9 to 67) per game. The RedHawks are 11-7 ATS the past 18 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. Expect them to punch their ticket for the next round, at Cleveland, improving on those 'revenge' stats along the way.

I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE (10* GAME OF YEAR). This is a huge game for the Seminoles and I expect them to respond with their very best effort. Senior guard Braian Angola had this to say: "It's one of the most important games of the season. We definitely need to win." Not only will the Noles be honoring their seniors but they'll also be looking to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume. They could certainly use the extra win here. Also, any chance of avoiding playing in the opening round of the ACC Tournament relies on a victory here. Senior Phil Cofer noted: "I think myself and everyone else is definitely locked in. They know that we need this win to move on to the next thing." Look for the Noles, who were upset at BC in January, to send out their seniors in style, improving to 5-1-1 ATS (6-1 SU) the past seven times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. The Cyclones upset the Sooners when these teams met at Iowa State. With this evening's rematch being played at Oklahoma, I expect the revenge-minded Sooners to return the favor. Throw in the fact that the Sooners are playing their final regular season home game AND that the Cyclones swept them last season and we should have an extremely motivated OU team. Note that the Sooners are 14-9 ATS (17-6 SU) the past 23 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. The Cyclones average 73 ppg on the road, while allowing more than 80. Expect them to be unable to keep up with a motivated Sooner team which averages 92.7 ppg here at home. Revenge-minded Sooners pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BEST BET). Talk about insulting. The Mavs are 7-20 on the road. Yet, they're favored (slightly) at Chicago. I expect the Bulls, 13-17 at home, to take that slight personally. With a 3-0 ATS mark their past three games, admittedly, the Mavs have played fairly well recently. However, playing hard against OKC, only to come up a point short in a 111-110 loss on Wednesday, figures to take a toll on them here. Plus, when you're playing out the string, its easier to get up for a home game against a conference opponent which is going to the playoffs, then for a road game against a non-conf, non-playoff opponent. The Bulls are 6-4 ATS when playing with two day's rest. Going back further finds them at 22-16 ATS, when off three or more consecutive losses. Expect them to take advantage of this favorable matchup. 

I'm playing on MISSOURI STATE (10* MVC GAME OF YEAR). Teams from this "play in game" typically don't advance too far. However, the Bears aren't the typical "play in" team. Led by Alize Johnson (#1 in rebounding in the MVC, #5 in scoring) this team was, in fact, the preseason favorite in this conference. This is a team which defeated (25-5) Loyola, which ran away with the conference regular season title. The Bears beat the Crusaders by seven points, as an 8-point favorite, when the teams met in the regular season. While I still feel that they're the superior team, due to their poor finish, we're getting much better line value this time. With a chance at a "fresh start," expect the cream to rise to the top, Johnson and co. elevating their game and advancing to the next round.

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO (10* GAME OF MONTH). I really like how this one sets up for the home team. One of the potential problems with betting on the Spurs, when they are playing either the front-end or the back-end, of a back-to-back situation, is that healthy starters often get rested. However, with this being an "isolated" game, thats unlikely to be the case here. Not only did the Spurs have the past couple of days off but they also get the next couple of nights off. In other words, while Leonard remains out indefinitely and Gasol may miss with injury, all "healthy" players should be good to go. With a 22-6 home record, they're still playing excellent basketball here. To their credit, the Pelicans have continued to play very well since Cousins went down. I expect a number of recent hard-fought OT games to catch up with them here though. After playing an OT game against Miami on the 23rd, the Pelicans played another OT game at Milwaukee two days later. Even with a day off Tuesday, this will still be their fourth game in the past six days. The Pelicans  have actually beaten the Spurs in two of the past three meetings. However, all three of those games were at New Orleans. The Spurs have beaten the Pelicans each of the past five meetings here at San Antonio, taking each of last season's games here by double-digits. The Spurs have been "laying double-digits" in all four of the last four meetings here. We're getting a much lower line to work with here and I feel thats providing us with excellent value. 

I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). The Colonials lost their last road game, a 62-53 setback at St. Louis. However, since an ugly loss to Davidson to begin the month, they've turned the corner here at home. Last game here, they beat Richmond by 26 points. Their previous game here saw them beat VCU by 24. Before that? An 11-point win over La Salle. Stepping down in class to face a Fordham team which has struggled all season, the Colonials have an opportunity to post another big win in their regular season home finale. I expect them to make the most of that opportunity. While the Rams may go all out to try and win Saturday's home finale, its been tough sledding on the road. Fordham averages less than 60 points per game away from home and its last four road losses have all come by double-digits. More of the same here. 

I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). Given their outstanding home record, the Nuggets aren't getting much respect here. Even with a close loss 119-114 against Houston last time out, the Nuggets are still 24-8 here. Speaking of Houston. While the Nuggets have tomorrow off, the Clippers have a big showdown vs. the Rockets on deck tomorrow. The Nuggets, who beat the Clippers by double-digits each of the last two meetings (40 combined points) here, are 11-4 SU the past 15 times that they allowed 115 or more points in their previous game. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on KENT STATE (10* MISMATCH). I believe that the Golden Flashes, who have dominated the RedHawks here over recent years, are going to want this one a little more than their guests. While Kent State will be playing its regular season home finale, Miami Ohio plays its home finale in its next game. The RedHawks' home finale will come against instate rival Ohio, which recently upset Miami Ohio. Speaking of "revenge games," the Golden Flashes will be looking to avenge an earlier loss at Miami. The RedHawks are 1-3 SU/ATS the past four times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. The Golden Flashes are 2-0-1 ATS (3-0 SU) the past three times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. Expect them to improve on those stats here.

I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Red Raiders have the higher ranking but I believe that the Mountaineers are favored for good reason. You may recall that WVU was ranked as high as #2 in the country this season. The Mountaineers achieved that ranking by winning 15 straight. The team that beat them? These same Red Raiders. Needless to say, WVU hasn't forgotten that 1-point loss. That led to a stretch where they lost five of six. The team is playing better now though, having won two in a row and five or seven. In addition to wanting to avenge the earlier loss and continue their current winning streak, the Mountaineers are playing their final home game of the regular season. The Mountaineers are going to want to close out their home season in style. Catching the Raiders off three straight losses, I expect them to do exactly that. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* PERS FAV). The home team won and covered both meetings in this series last season. In a battle of struggling teams, I expect homecourt to again prove significant. While the Nets "only" get outscored by 3.2 ppg at home, the Bulls get outscored by 8.9 ppg when playing on the road. The Nets come in well-rested. They're 4-2 SU/ATS the past six times that they played with three or more day's worth of rest in between games. Going back further finds them at 14-9 ATS their past 23 in that situation. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* MAIN EVENT). While they came up short vs. Charlotte on Friday, the Wizards have been decent without Wall. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I feel that they're offering excellent value on Sunday evening. While Washington had yesterday off, the 76ers are off a win against Orlando. They'll be playing their third game in four days here. The Wizards, who lost 122-105 on Friday, are 5-2 SU/ATS the last seven times that they were off a double-digit loss. They're also 8-5 ATS (10-3 SU) after allowing 115 or more points in their previous game. Expect them to improve on those stats here.

I'm playing on WESTERN CAROLINA (10* PERS FAV). The Catamounts overcame a 16-point deficit to win 81-79 at Charleston back on 12/30. That result will likely have some backing the revenge-minded Bulldogs. However, the Bulldogs are only 7-17 SU the past 24 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss and I believe this game will have significantly more meaning to the Catamounts. For starters, its their regular season home finale and the Catamounts will be honoring their six senior players. They'd like to send them out on a high note. Also, WCU badly wants to snap its losing streak, before entering the (conference) tournament. Perhaps most importantly, while the Bulldogs are already locked into a first round matchup, the Catamounts are trying to secure a top-6 seed. That's important as it would allow the Catamounts to avoid a first round game in the tournament. Note that WCU has won 12 of the last 14 meetings including four of the last five in Cullowhee. Also note that the Catamounts have thrived in the favorite role, going 13-4 ATS (15-2 SU) the past 17 times that they were laying points. Expect a highly motivated effort, as they improve on those stats this afternoon. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA (10* GAME OF WEEK). If Ole Miss beats Tennessee this afternoon (Vols are -4) then Auburn will already have clinched at least a share of the SEC regular season title. Regardless of what happens in that earlier matchup, I expect the Gators to be the team which comes ready to play. The Gators have dropped three in a row, for just the second time this season. With a road game on deck, they know they have to "stop the bleeding" here. Note that the Gators beat a strong Cincy team, the only previous time that they'd lost three in a row this season. Including that 66-60 victory, they're an impressive and profitable 34-14 ATS over the years, after failing to cover the spread in their previous three games. That includes a 5-2 SU/ATS mark in that situation, the past 2+ seasons. While Auburn can score with the best of them, the Gators have arguably the superior defense. Expect them to rise to the occasion and come away with an important victory. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* ANNIHILATOR). The home team has won both meetings. I expect homecourt to again prove significant. With their 117-115 win here earlier, the Bulls are 4-1 SU/ATS their last five as a host, 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) their last 10 in the series overall. While the 76ers, who had been hot, may have preferred to just keep playing, the break figures to have come at the right time for the Bulls. They're 8-2-1 ATS their last 11, when playing with three or more day's rest, 2-0-1 ATS their last three. Lets not forget that the Bulls still have more wins at home than the 76ers do on the road. All things considered, this number is generously high. I'm taking the points.

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (10* BEST BET). If the Panthers want a chance of snapping their skid and earning a conference victory, this is their chance to get it. After tonight, their final two games come against Virginia and at Notre Dame. Needless to say, this represents a far more winnable game. I expect a highly motivated effort from the Panthers as they go all out to get the win. The Demon Deacons are 10-17, 3-9 away from home. The Deacons haven't won a road game in 2018. Their last road win came way back in mid-December and that was by only four points, at Coastal Carolina. With an O/U line in the mid 140s, note that Wake Forest is 2-5 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s while Pittsburgh is 6-4 ATS when doing so. Last February's game (at WF) was decided by only four points. The previous February's game here at Pitt. was decided by only five. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing all the points I can get. 

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M (10* GAME OF THE YEAR). The Bulldogs come in on an impressive roll at the betting window. Last time out, they knocked off instate rival Ole Miss by 17 points. That marked their seventh straight ATS victory. I expect that streak to get snapped on Tuesday. Note that this is the second time this season that the Bulldogs were coming off a game against Ole Miss. After their first game against the Rebels, the Bulldogs followed it up with a 17-point loss in their next game. That was their most lopsided defeat of the season. Recent ATS streak notwithstanding, the Bulldogs are still just 1-6 SU on the road, in 2018. They've also struggled the past 2+ seasons, as road favorites in this range. The Aggies are off back-to-back losses. However, both of those came on the road. In their most recent home game, they beat Kentucky by double-digits. Their previous home game, before that, was a 23-point win over South Carolina. In fact, they've won five straight at home and the last four of those victories all came by double-digits. The Aggies have thrived as home favorites in this range. While they lost at Miss. State last season, the Aggies had beaten the Bulldogs four straight times before that, including all three here at home. Expect homecourt to be the difference once again.

I'm playing on WRIGHT STATE (3* VIOLATOR). These teams are at opposite ends of the Horizon Conference. The Raiders have enjoyed an excellent season and sit on top of the standings. They're 20-8 overall, 13-2 when listed as the home team. The Vikings, on the other hand, check in with a 8-21 record, a dismal 1-14 mark when listed as the road team. They figure to have trouble scoring this evening. While the Raiders allow a mere 59 points per game at home, the Vikings score just 63 ppg on the road. Normally, for a mismatch like this, the Vikings might hope the home team would overlook them. However, thats not happening here. Not only is this the Raiders' final home game of the reg. season, but they also lost at Cleveland State earlier this month, when listed as 9-point favorites. Arguably the low point of their season, the Raiders haven't forgotten. They're 10-6 ATS (11-5 SU) the past 16 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss and I expect them to improve on those stats in "blowout fashion" here.

I'm playing on CAL (10* SHOCKER). While the Bears have admittedly had a tough season, I don't believe that Stanford deserves to be laying this many points on the road. The Bears beat Oregon State in their last game here. Nobody has beaten them by more than single-digits here since Arizona did so a month ago. The Cardinal are playing their third straight road game. They lost each of the first two, failing to cover in either. They're 0-4 on the road over the past month. With an O/U line in the low 140s, note that Stanford is 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS its last eight, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. The Bears, who already won by three at Stanford, have beaten the Cardinal by double-digits each of the past two meetings here at Cal. Expect them to give their guests all they can handle once again. 

I'm playing on IDAHO (10* FALSE FAVORITE OF THE MONTH). This is a big game in the Big Sky Conference. I like the Vandals, who rallied for a 10-point win last time and who have now won five straight, to come out on top. There was no clear cut favorite in the Big Sky entering this season. Both these teams knew they'd be in the mix. Sure enough, they're #1 and #2. While Montana is already 20-6, note that ALL six of those losses came away from home. Last time out, the Grizzlies lost at Eastern Washington. That defeat snapped a 13-game winning streak and an undefeated record in conference play. While many will expect the Grizzlies to immediately bounce back, thats often easier said than done. Note that the Grizzlies were only 4-7 ATS off a conference loss, the past couple of seasons. Montana averages 73 ppg on the road while allowing 69.6. Idaho, on the other hand, averages 78.2 ppg at home, while allowing 66.8. Expect homecourt to ultimately prove the difference, the surging Vandals making it six straight. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Rams won big when these teams met at Rhode Island. Not surprising, as they've been perfect on their home floor this season. They've been tough to beat away from home, too. But not unbeatable. In addition to losing a neutral site game at Virginia, the Rams have lost at Nevada and Alabama. The Bonnies, who have won seven straight overall, have also been very tough to beat on their home floor. Their only loss here came in the first game of the season, way back in early November. Since then, they've been perfect here. Expect them to get some payback this evening.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). While the Lakers spent yesterday getting destroyed by Anthony Davis and the Pelicans, the T-Wolves had the day off. The Lakers have now allowed 130 and 139 points in their last two games. Note that they're now 0-4 SU/ATS their last four, after allowing 130 or more points in their previous game. Going back further finds them at an ugly 2-10 ATS (1-11 SU) their last 12 in that situation. The T-Wolves, 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 home games when the O/U line was set at 220 or more, have already hammered the Lakers twice this season. Expect another double-digit win tonight.