Sports Picks & Predictions

Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I backed the 76ers in the last game. They rewarded me by simply destroying the Celtics. That was a much needed victory for them and I feel it will help to restore their confidence. Having "regained their swagger" and playing with "revenge" from a close loss at Salt Lake City, I expect another win and cover for the 76ers this evening. When looking at the home/away records of these teams, its not surprising that the Jazz won the earlier meeting at Utah. The Jazz are 14-6 at home. The 76ers are 8-9 on the road. Tonight's rematch is at Philly though. Big difference. The Jazz are 5-13 on the road. The 76ers are 15-8 at home. The Jazz are getting outscored by more than seven points per game on the road. The 76ers are outscoring opponents by more than 10 here at home. While both teams had yesterday off, note that the 76ers also have tomorrow off. That's not the case for the Jazz. They're currently playing the fourth leg of a 5-game road trip and they've got a game against Chicago on deck tomorrow. The last time that the Jazz played a road game, which was the front end of a back-to-back spot, they lost by seven at Sacramento. Their previous time in that situation, they lost by 16 at Houston. Prior to that, they lost by six at New Orleans. You get the idea. The Jazz are a horrible 43-70 ATS the last 100+ times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range, 3-4 ATS their last seven in that situation. During that stretch, the 76ers are 11-6 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the same range, including 6-1 SU/ATS this season. The 76ers beat the Jazz by 11 here last season. I expect another convincing victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. Both these teams are playing well. Both have had strong seasons. I believe that the Billikens are a little stronger though. Always a great defensive team, this year's team can also score. The offense averages 69.1 points on 45.3% shooting. That may not sound that great. Its much better than recent seasons though and when factoring how dominant the defense is, its more than enough. The Billikens benefit from four extra possessions per game. They cause 15.2 turnovers while only committing 11.2 themselves, the best mark in the Atlantic 10. St. Louis ranks first in the A-10 in most defensive categories. The Billikens are holding opponents to only 56.6 points per game, good for seventh in the country. Opposing teams score just 0.9 points per possession, good for eighth nationally. Additionally, the Billikens allowed only 596 made field goals this season, fifth best in the country. The stingy St. Louis defense figures to spell trouble for the Explorers. The Billikens held the Explorers to a mere 51 points in the earlier meeting. That 59-51 St. Louis win came at La Salle, too. Now, the teams meet on a neutral floor - the Explorers are just 4-9 ATS their last 13 on a neutral floor. Including the earlier meeting, the Explorers are 5-17 SU their last 22 against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game, going 7-11 ATS in those games. While the non-conference schedule was admittedly rather weak, the Billikens have a whopping 20 double-digit victories this season. They enter today's game on an 8-1 run. Despite the great season, the Billikens remain on the bubble. One could argue that they deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament, even if they lose today. That could happen. However, there's also a chance that a loss today could keep the Billikens out of the tournament. Aware that this is a possibility, or at least being talked about, I expect the Billikens to take care of business, leaving nothing to doubt. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NC STATE. The Cavaliers had yesterday off while the Wolfpack were involved in a "warm up" game vs. Boston College. Having to play that extra game might hurt the Wolfpack if/when they advance further on in the tournament. However, I don't expect it to bother them today. In fact, it may well help. After all, yesterday's game wasn't exactly "taxing," as they won by double-digits. Prior to that, they hadn't played since Sunday. So, really, yesterday's game could be considered a good warm-up for today's much tougher opponent. The Wolfpack dominated yesterday's game. They led from wire-to-wire and won by 21. In fact, they didn't even allow a point for more than seven minutes and were up 14-0 out of the gate. C.J. Williams noted: "We got after them early. They run a Princeton-style offense, so we knew we had to get them out of their flow. We were able to create turnovers, and that led to our quick start." NC State is now 2-0-1 ATS its last three games, also beating Miami and losing by three at Clemson. I respect the Cavs. I won with them when they covered vs UNC recently. However, I also won by going against them in their last game; successfully backing Maryland. Less than 100% healthy, Virginia is now 2-4-1 ATS its last seven games, 0-2 ATS its last two. Note that the Cavs have seen four straight games decided by three or fewer points. Speaking of "close games," these teams saw this season's regular season meeting finish with a score of 61-60. That has the Wolfpack thinking "payback." After yesterday's win, NC State's C.J. Leslie had this to say of the Cavaliers: We might of let the first game against Virginia slip away. This is a good chance to get back at them. We must win this tomorrow." He went on to say: "Virginia is the type of team that will be in every game because of the way they play defense. We have to get after them from the tip, just like we did today." The Cavs are 0-4 SU/ATS the last four times that they were a neutral court favorites of three or fewer points. During the same stretch, the Wolfpack are 9-3 SU/ATS as neutral court underdogs of three or fewer points, going 3-0 SU/ATS their last three. With yesterday's win, the Wolfpack are now a terrific 21-8-1 ATS their last 30 conference tournament games. In a game that could easily again come down to the wire, I expect at least another cover here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PHOENIX. We're getting some extra line value with Phoenix based on the fact that the Suns played last night, while the Mavericks had yesterday off. However, its important to remember that not all teams perform the same way when playing the second of back-to-back games AND that not all back-to-back situations are the same. In this case, prior to last night's 115-104 loss at OKC, the Suns hadn't played since 3/4, which was Sunday. So, tonight will still just be their second game since the weekend. Also, the All Star Break wasn't long ago. So, despite playing the second of b2b games, this isn't exactly a grueling spot - at least not as far as b2b games are concerned. Additionally, the Suns have actually performed pretty well, when playing their second game in two days. The last time that they were in that situation, they upset the Clippers. Before that, they hammered the Wizards by 16. Overall, they're 6-4-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. While many look at teams playing the second of b2b games, a lot of handicappers fail to take notice of teams which are playing the front end of b2b games. That's the case for the Mavs here, as this is the start of three games in three days for them. That's noteworthy as they're 0-4 the last four times that they were in that situation. That includes losses vs. OKC, NJ, NO and NY. The Suns figure to be extremely motivated here. Not only are they playing a home game against the defending champs on National TV, but they're also 0-3 against the Mavs this season, including an embarrassing 122-99 blowout here at Phoenix in the most recent meeting. Note that they're 3-2 SU/ATS the last five times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. Also, note that the Suns didn't have Nash for that game. While the Mavs, who may be without their starting center here, have lost four in a row on the road, the Suns have won five of their last six at home. The lone loss during that stretch came by two points. In fact, each of their last two home losses came by just two points. After giving up 115 at OKC last night, note that the Suns are a superb 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS the last nine times that they allowed 105 or more points in their previous game. Going back further finds them at a profitable 67-37 SU and 62-40-2 ATS in that situation the past few years. I expect an "upset" but will happily grab the points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. While it appears likely that the Cyclones will close as favorites, it was the Longhorns who opened as very slight favorites, which was the case when I released them as a play. (That means they can qualify as one of my "Personal Favorite" plays.) While the line indicates a potentially close game, I expect the Longhorns to be a little more "hungry" and look for them to be the team which comes away with an important victory. I actually had a big play on the Cyclones in their last game. However, that was at home vs. Baylor. As I noted at the time, the Cyclones are an outstanding team at home but not nearly as good on the road. They're 16-2 when listed as the home team but only 6-7 on the road. Not surprisingly, given Iowa State's home/road record, these teams split the regular season meetings, each team winning on its home floor. Texas, however, has won eight of the last nine meetings. The Longhorns are 12-4 vs. Iowa State under Rick Barnes. While I do feel that these teams are fairly equal, I believe that the Longhorns' edge lies in the motivation department. The Cyclones WANT to win. However, they probably don't NEED to, as they're already likely "going dancing." The big win over Baylor and recent hot streak may have them patting themselves on the back a bit. On the the hand, the Longhorns may well need to win another game (or two) to get in. Considering that they've been to 13 consecutive NCAA Tournaments, that's a streak they badly want to keep active. Coach Barnes had this to say: "Do we have to win another game? I don't want to win just one. I want to win again and again." Losing forward Alexis Wangmene to injury was indeed a bit of a blow to the Longhorns. However, he only averaged 4.6 points and 4.7 rebounds. So, its not a loss they aren't capable of overcoming. In the end, I look for the Longhorns to be a little more determined and for that to lead to an extremely important victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on IDAHO. The Warriors have been struggling lately. Since winning four of five to start February, they've now lost five straight games. They're an ugly 0-4-1 ATS in those games, too. There are some cases where I might look to back a team which has failed to cover several times in a row. This isn't one of them though. The Warriors haven't been very good away from the Island. They're only 4-8 on the road - and one of those games came at Hilo, which I watched while vacationing on the Big Island. So, they didn't have to leave Hawaii for that one, instead only taking a 20 minute flight from one island to another. The Warriors are also off a heart-breaking loss (at Honolulu) in their last game. In a "wild" game, they eventually lost by a single point, 61-60 vs. Utah St. The Aggies hit the go-ahead basket with seven seconds left. That type of loss cane be difficult to bounce back from. It becomes even more difficult when a team is playing with arguably its best player. That'll be the case for the Warriors here, as they'll be without Zane Johnson. The senior guard is tied for the team lead with 14 points per game. He's and 84% free throw shooter and has made more 3-pointers than the rest of the Warriors combined. Without Johnson in the lineup for Hawaii, Idaho arguably has the better offense. They also have the better defense. The Vandals allow 67 points per game, 69.4 on the road. The Warriors allow 74.2 per game and that number climbs all the way to 78.5 on the road. Over their last five games, the Warriors have allowed opposing teams to hit better than 52% of their shots, while averaging 87.2 points. Trying to fix those defensive deficiencies, off the heartbreaking weekend loss, will not be easy. The Vandals just crushed these same Warriors by 19 points, at Hawaii. They've won seven of eight, going 6-1 ATS in the seven lined games. I expect them to keep rolling. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Georgetown comes in with the higher ranking and off a win yesterday. However, the Bearcats had yesterday off and are playing their best basketball of the season. While it seems many are backing the favored Hoyas, I expect an upset. On one hand, having yesterday off, as opposed to playing like Georgetown did, isn't necessarily a huge benefit for the Bearcats in this game. After all, prior to yesterday's game, the Hoyas had several days off, having not played since 3/3. However, I do feel it helps Cincinnati in another, perhaps more important way; the "confidence department." The time off, combined with the fact that they've been rolling, has the Bearcats believing that they might actually win the tournament this season. Or, at least that they have a legit chance of doing so. Coach Cronin had this to say of the double bye: "I think our players would probably say you think you have a chance to win it when you only have to play three games. It's tough when you know the other teams only have to play three, and you have to play four or five - not to say someone's not going to win it playing four or five. Only playing three gives them a realistic chance of winning the thing, instead of just trying to get to Friday night." Senior guard Dion Dixon added: "I think it's different. We've had a better year. You go in there with great expectations." The Bearcats are even breaking out new uniforms, prompting guard Sean Kilpatrick to note: "It's a new look, especially going into the Big East tournament. You want to feel refreshed and everything going in. I think the new uniforms will give us a new attitude." While the Bearcats did struggle at the beginning of the season, things started changing after the fight with Xavier. Keep in mind that this team was ranked #21 heading into the season. They won at Villanova last time out and beat a good Marquette team by double-digits before that. I backed them in that game and noted that they were already rolling before that. They're now 5-1 SU/ATS their last six and the lone loss came on the road and by a single point. Cincinnati has won the last three meetings in this series, including a 68-64 decision on Jan. 9 in Washington. The Bearcats have never been to the semi-final round of the Big East Championship, so winning here is a "big deal" to them. They're 5-3 ATS as underdogs and 6-4 ATS their last 10 on a neutral court. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I won with the Celtics on Sunday. However, this is a tough spot for them. After an emotional "TV" win on Sunday, one which went to OT, the Celtics had Monday off. They played again last night though, earning a hard-fought win vs. Houston. Once again, the Celtics were forced to play an OT game. A closer look shows that Rondo, Pierce, Allen AND Garnett ALL played more than 40 minutes on Sunday. They played 41, 45, 46 and 48 in that game respectively. Then, last night, all four of them played at least 38 minutes, including three of them (Allen Pierce and Rondo) again playing more than 40. So, not only are they playing the second of back-to-back games, but this will also be their third game in four days and their four best players, three of which are old, have been seeing a ton of minutes. Note that the Celtics are 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) the last four times that they played the second of back-to-back games. That includes a 0-3 SU/ATS mark on the road. They lost those games by 16, 9 and 12 points. The Celtics remain tough at home. They're just 5-9 on the road though. The 76'ers, on the other hand, are 14-8 at home. While the Celtics are getting outscored 95 to 89.1 on the road, the 76'ers are outscoring opposing teams by a 93.5 to 84.5 margin here at Philadelphia. Unlike the Celtics, the 76'ers had yesterday off. On a losing streak, they're desperate for a victory. They're 6-1 SU/ATS against teams which allow 91 or fewer points per game and 8-1 ATS (9-0 SU) against teams which score 91 or less. I expect the 76'ers to be the more "hungry" team here and with the schedule in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OREGON STATE. The Cougars won both regular season meetings and check in with the slightly higher seed. I believe that the Beavers are favored for good reason though. The Beavers outscored opposing teams by a 79.6 to 72.8 margin this season. The Cougars, on the other hand, outscored teams by a 68.3 to 66.2 margin. The Beavers are 5-1 ATS on a neutral court, 3-0 ATS their last three in the conference tournament. The Cougars are 1-3-1 ATS their last five on a neutral court. Their lone neutral court ATS win (and Oregon State's lone ATS loss on a neutral court) came when these two teams faced each other at Spokane, on New Year's Eve. So, while it was defined that way, that wasn't exactly a "neutral" site. The Cougars still had Faisal Aden for that 12/31 game, although he didn't do all that much. Still, considering that he averaged 14.5 points per game and was a team best 89% free throw shooter, the fact that he's now out should be noted. With the Cougars having lost their best player (Klay Thompson 21.6 ppg) and also DeAngelo Casto (12.6 ppg) from last year, Aden was expected to be a big part of this team. Oregon State's Jared Cunningham will arguably be the best player on the floor. Not only does he average 18.6 ppg and make First Team All Conference, he also made the All Defensive team for the second straight season. The Cougars won last time out. They still only scored 43 points though - the win came vs. USC, the worst team in the conference. Prior to that, they'd lost four of five. The Beavers have "revenge" on their minds and they are quietly feeling confident. They're off back to back double-digit wins, most recently a 83-69 beatdown of Colorado. Coach Craig Robinson had this to say: "We are looking forward to going down for the (Pac-12) tournament. We've had a good couple of days of practice that followed a good weekend of games. I don't think there's much change to our game plan. We are going to try and keep the way we've been playing -- sharing the ball, great defense and see what happens." When asked about the fact that the Cougars beat them in both meetings, Robinson responded: "I don't have to remind them at all. We watched the tape and they know exactly how poorly we played. But I maintain we are a different team, even from that last game, which was about a month ago. We are such a different team right now that I am less concerned about how we played then and more concerned about keeping going what we've done recently. I think our defense is completely different. Our defensive effort is completely different. I think we are back to sort of playing that free-flowing, sharing the ball offense that we did earlier in the season." I feel the Beavers are currently the better team and I look for them to show it here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MONTANA. The Grizzlies are fairly heavy favorites here. However, I feel that number could easily be higher. I'm expecting a double-digit blowout. These teams met once in the regular season. That was at Eastern Washington and Montana still won by 14. While the Eagles would obviously love to avenge that loss, "revenge" generally isn't a factor when a team doesn't really believe it can win. In this case, the Eagles likely realize they're in over their heads. The Grizzlies have won 12 straight and 18 of their last 19. Last time out, they beat Weber State, a team with a 23-5 record, by 15 points. Each of their last four victories have come by double-digits. The Eagles are off back-to-back victories. Those both came against Idaho State though, a team with a 9-21 record. This is still a sub-500 team, one which has a 6-12 record away from home. Also, note that they're an ugly 1-7 ATS when off a conference victory, 1-4 ATS after topping the 80 point mark in their previous game. The Grizzlies have the advantage of playing this one at the Dahlberg Arena, where they've been outstanding. As far as the high line, note that Montana is 14-4 ATS the last 18 times it was a home favorite in the -9.5 to -12 range, going 7-1 ATS their last eight in that role. Even with their great record, the Grizzlies know that an "at large bid" to the Big Dance is not in their favor. That means that they have to take care of business in this tournament and can't afford a letdown against this inferior opponent. Expect a blowout. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. I played on the Bobcats in their last game. While I've counted that as a "push" for my records (it was a push vs. the line I released the play at) the Bobcats did "offiically" cover the spread (for most) in that game. They closed as +4.5 point underdogs and lost by three, 104-101. While I personally was disappointed they didn't win outright, I was impressed with the Bobcats' effort, as I felt it was a big step up. Note that the Bobcats topped that 100 point mark for the first time since mid-January, which should give them some confidence and positive offensive momentum here. Coach Silas had this to say of his team: "We didn

Reason: I'm playing on ST MARYS. Admittedly, Gonzaga was more impressive last game. The Bulldogs beat up on BYU. St. Mary's won but didn't cover vs. San Francisco. Those results have helped up as they've been one of the factors causing the line to climb from its opener. I feel thats providing us with excellent value with the underdog Gaels. While Gonzaga may have been better on Saturday, lets not forget that it was St. Mary's which finished on top of the conference this regular season. The Gaels finished with 26 wins. Also, Gonzaga being "more impressive" on Saturday doesn't concern me. The Gaels had already beaten SF twice during the season and they were playing the Dons for the second straight game. They probably took the game for granted a bit. Meanwhile, having split the season series with BYU, Gonzaga knew it was going to have to be at its best. (It should also be noted that St. Mary's pounded BYU in both meetings - a pair of double-digit wins, coming by 14 and 21 points.) Both teams have done enough that they will be making it to the Big Dance. That shouldn't make for any less intensity though as these are bitter rivals which dislike each other. I expect the Gaels to be a little more "hungry" though. They've never won both the regular season title and the conference title in the same season and that's a goal they'd really like to achieve. While both of this season's meetings were won convincingly by the home team, I won't be surprised if the rubber match on a neutral court comes down to the wire. Note that two of last season's meetings were decided by four or fewer points, one of them by just two. The Bulldogs are 3-5 ATS when playing with one or fewer day's rest in between games. The Gaels are 7-3 ATS (in lined games) when doing so. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO. Toledo has the better record and is playing at home. Yet, the Rockets opened as only very slight favorites. That will likely have many quick to back the home team; we've already seen the line climb from its opener. I feel that the number was low for good reason though. I feel the RedHawks, who played a far tougher schedule, are arguably the more talented team. This is their chance to show they're better than the record indicates. Despite the poor overall record, the RedHawks were a respectable 8-6 ATS in road lined games this season. They were also a solid 9-5 ATS in lined games against teams with a winning record. In addition to facing the likes of Ohio and Kent State on the road in conference play, note that the RedHawks have played on the road at venues like Cincinnati, Ohio State and Vanderbilt. They won't be intimidated by a trip to Toledo. Playing at home, Miami Ohio fell behind out of the gate when these teams met in the regular season. The RedHawks did fight hard the entire way, losing by two. Last year's game was also decided by two points, a 68-66 victory for Miami Ohio, here at Toledo. With four of Toledo's last eight games having been decided by four or fewer points, don't be surprised if this one also comes down to the final possession. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MARYLAND. These teams faced each other at Virginia on 2/18. That game was tied at halftime. However, the Cavaliers crushed the Terrapins in the second half, winning 71-44. That has the Terps in "revenge" mode here, a role which has seen them fare well. Playing their final regular season home game, I expect them to deliver their best effort. The Cavs have had a great season. They've lost two in a row (and four of six) though and they know they've got bigger games ahead. The Cavs do play very stingy defense. However, the offense is hardly dominant. Their 62.6 points per game is the third lowest in the ACC. That number dips to 59.7 on the road. That can make covering a pointspread on the road difficult. Note that Virginia is only 4-8 ATS its last 12 as a road favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. While the Terps have lost two in a row, those games came on the road. They beat Miami by five in their last game here. Prior to that, they crushed Boston College by 16 here. Their only two home losses since November have come against Duke and North Carolina. The Terps are 15-6 SU and 12-7-2 ATS the last 21 times that they were off a conference loss. During that time, they're also 10-5 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. This is a "border rival" and the loss at Virginia was the Terps worst of the season. On Senior Day, they step up and give the Cavs all they can handle, this time for both halves. *10

Reason: I'm playing on IONA. The Gaels are the top team in this conference and they're on a mission. After they beat these same Stags to clinch the MAAC regular-season title, Iona's Sean Armand had this to say: "There's nothing to celebrate. We did what we were supposed to do, we were preseason No. 1. We felt like we should be No. 1 and that

Reason: I'm playing on FLORIDA. I won with the Wildcats last time out. That was a home game against Georgia though. While the Wildcats are certainly capable of beating any team in the country, they're now stepping up significantly in class while also traveling to hostile territory. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. The Wildcats did beat up on Georgia. However, they're only 7-12 ATS against teams with a winning record and they're still 1-3 ATS their last four. Its true that the Wildcats are trying to become just the third team since 1956 to go unbeaten in the SEC. That should provide some motivation. However, the fact is that the Wildcats have bigger games ahead and they should already be a lock for a #1 seed in the tournament. The Gators have plenty of motivation. Stopping the Wildcats from going undefeated, improving their positioning, avenging a blowout loss at Kentucky, winning on Senior Day, bouncing back from a loss. All those factors should make for a hungry Florida team. The Gators are 14-1 at home this season. The lone loss here came by five points. They're also 15-9-1 ATS the last 25 times that they were getting points. While they've failed to cover three in a row, they're an outstanding 6-0 SU the last six times that they'd failed to cover three straight going 25-6 SU (19-8 ATS) their last 31 in that situation. The last meeting on this floor was decided by just two points, a 70-68 Florida win on 2/5. I won't be surprised if this one also comes right down to the wire and will gladly grab the generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. The T-Wolves are an exciting young team, one which is capable of playing with and defeating top tier opponents. I feel they're in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight though. After getting blown out by the Heat on National TV and now having lost two straight, the Blazers figure to be in a hostile mood. They're 3-1 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss this season. That includes a 2-0 SU/ATS record when they were playing at home, off a double-digit loss. They won those games by 20 and 40 points, respectively. The T-Wolves had yesterday off. However, this is still at tough scheduling spot for them. They're still a long way from home and they're still playing their fourth road game in five days. After the T-Wolves seemingly ran out of gas in the second half at Phoenix on Thursday, Kevin Love was quoted as saying: "It just got out of control and the wheels came off. Third game in three nights for all these guys and for me being sick, I think we had tired legs down the stretch and it caught up to us." The T-Wolves are now 8-9 on the road. The Blazers are 13-6 at home. Note that Portland was 30-11 here last season, never losing back-to-back home games. The Blazers have also dominated the T-Wolves for years. In fact, they've won 16 straight in the series, going 18-2 SU and 16-4 ATS the last 20. Each of the last three meetings have seen the Blazers win by double-digits. Knowing that they'll have to face these same T-Wolves at Minnesota on Wednesday, I expect the "angry" Blazers to "hold serve" at home, coming through with a convincing win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on IOWA STATE. Some are likely going to see this line and wonder why the Cyclones have opened as (slight) favorites. After all, Baylor is a very good team. (The #9 ranked Bears bring a 25-5 record into today's action.) Iowa State is better than many realize though, at least when playing here at home. I feel the Cyclones are favored for good reason and I look for them to earn an important win on their home floor. I successfully backed the Bears when these teams met at Baylor, on 2/13. Laying -8.5, Baylor won by a score of 79-64. Here's an excerpt from that report: "I've been avoiding playing on the Bears. Good thing too. They're 0-5 ATS their last five, 1-7 ATS their last eight and 3-10-1 ATS their last 14. All those pointspread losses are working in our favor though. Many lost with Baylor again on Saturday and are less willing to back the Bears here as a result. That's kept this line to single-digits. As I expect a big win, I feel that relatively low line is providing us with excellent value. Off two straight blowout losses, the Bears figure to be in a foul mood. In their defense, those losses came at Missouri and vs. Kansas. Lets not forget that prior to those losses, the Bears had won four straight. They're still 21-4 on the season and Missouri and Kansas are the only two teams which have defeated them. A big win tonight would really help the Bears confidence and I look for them to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way. Iowa State is a solid enough team, one which has been on a nice ATS run. That said, the Cyclones are not in the same class as Missouri or Kansas. Their last road game resulted in a loss at Oklahoma City. The Bears have already swept those same Cowboys, winning by 45 combined points. The Bears are 5-0 against the Cyclones here at Waco, dating back to 2000. Laying -11.5, they beat them by a score of 84-63 here last season. They're still 4-2-1 ATS the last few seasons, after failing to cover three straight games. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats in convincing fashion." As noted, the Bears were struggling at the time and the game was at Waco, where Baylor has dominated the Cyclones. Things set up differently here. The Bears are off a big win and cover and have won three straight - that's helped in terms of line value - as the Cyclones could actually be larger favorites. (Note that Baylor is only 3-7-1 ATS when off a conference victory.) More importantly, the game is now being played at Ames rather than Waco. Not only are the Cyclones an entirely different team here (15-2 home, 6-7 road) but they've also dominated Baylor here. In fact, they're 9-0 their last nine against the Bears here. Lets not forget that Iowa State beat Kansas on this floor, in addition to teams like Texas and Kansas State. The Cyclones are 4-1 SU/ATS off a conference loss. They're 6-0 ATS their last six games played in March and they're a commanding 21-3-1 ATS the last 25 times that they were listed as home favorite (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. They've gone 14-6 ATS against teams with a winning record and I look for them to step up and rise to the occasion another time here. *10 (Personal Favorite.)

Reason: I'm playing on IOWA. The Hawkeyes check in at an impressive 10-3 ATS in home lined games. I expect them to improve on those stats here. While the Wildcats have the slightly better overall record, Iowa's home record is far superior to Northwestern's record on the road. The Wildcats are 3-7 on the road. Iowa is 13-5 at home. The Hawkeyes have plenty of motivation. Not only is their regular season home finale but the Wildcats hammered them at Northwestern last month. After that 83-64 loss on Feb. 9th, Iowa coach Fran McCaffery called his team "soft." Needless to say, he'll be demanding a better effort here. Both teams are off losses. The Hawkeyes lost on the road against a determined Illinois team. They did fight hard but were down early. I wouldn't describe it as a particularly "heart-breaking" loss. On the other hand, the Wildcats are off a "heartbreaker." They've had a number of tough losses this season and Wednesday was another one. Facing #10 Ohio State, the Wildcats left it all on the floor. In fact, they battled all the way back from a 13-point deficit to tie the Buckeyes with seven seconds left in the game. However, their comeback was all for naught, as OSU's Jared Sullinger beat them with two seconds left. That type of devastating loss can be tough to bounce back from. I expect that to be the case here. Note that Northwestern is only 5-10 SU/ATS its last 15 as a road underdog of three or fewer points. With senior guard Matt Gatens, who will be playing his final regular season game in an Iowa uniform, leading the way, I expect the revenge-minded Wildcats to be at their best. *10 Annihilator

Reason: I'm playing on WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE. As you know, the Bulldogs have been a regular in the Big Dance in recent years. I won't be surprised if they get knocked out of their own tourney tonight though. Butler opened as the slight favorite and the line climbed from its opener. Many can't imagine the Bulldogs losing, now that it really matters. I feel that's providing us with excellent value on the Panthers though, a team which finished with 20 wins and a better record than Butler overall. The Bulldogs were just 7-11-1 ATS when laying points this season. The Panthers were 5-3-2 ATS as underdogs. While we know that Butler has enjoyed a great record in neutral court games, note that the Panthers are also 5-2-1 ATS their last eight on a neutral court, going 4-2 SU/ATS their last six conference tournament games. Note that Wisconsin-Milwaukee only allows 61.6 points per game and that Butler is only 4-9-2 ATS against teams that allow 64 or fewer ppg. The Panthers are peaking at the right time. They enter today's game off five straight victories, one of them over Cleveland State. In addition to playing stout defense, they've been on fire from beyond the arc for weeks. In addition to pounding the Bulldogs at home, the Panthers also played the Bulldogs tough at Butler. Listed as +4 point underdogs, they lost that one by only four. They're playing better basketball now, are playing on a "neutral" court and yet are getting very nearly as many points. In a game that could easily again come down to the wire, I'll gladly take the points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I played on both these teams on Thursday. I won with Chicago (against San Antonio) while losing with the Cavaliers, who blew a lead at New York. Obviously, I'm well aware of how good the Bulls are. I feel this will be a tough spot for them though. I'm also willing to give the Cavs another shot. I expect them to be extremely motivated. Playing at home, I expect a full 48 minute effort. This is the middle game of a 3-game road trip for Chicago. While they are a well coached team, its also the one game on this trip that I expect the Bulls to take for granted. I said that the Bulls were out to "make a statement" in their win at San Antonio. Off that "statement victory" and with a big revenge" game at Philadelphia (76ers hammered them 98-82 on 2/1) up next, it may be easy to overlook lowly Cleveland. Either way, note that the Bulls have now seen back to back games decided by seven or fewer points. Speaking of close games, the Cavs had seen four straight home games decided by five or fewer points. Those four games were decided by a total of only 10 points, margins of five, three, one and one. Even with Thursday's loss, their third straight, the Cavs are still a solid 14-10-1 ATS as underdogs this season. The Cavs have only had one previous losing streak this long all season. They lost four in a row in mid-late January. After the third loss, they went to Miami and lost by only seven, as 14 point underdogs. Next, they snapped the skid with a 10-point win. In other words, they're 2-0 ATS when having lost their previous three games. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss, I expect them to give the Bulls all they can handle here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Heat were playing great before the All Star break and they may well be the best team in the league. I backed them in their final game prior to the break and they rewarded me with a convincing 14-point victory over the Knicks. That was way back on 2/23 though, a full week ago. While James, Wade and co. were involved in the All Star game and festivities, the Heat haven't played a "real game" since that Thursday win over the Knicks. As much as they were previous "clicking," the long layoff could easily bring some rust. Of course, even if the Heat bring their A-Game, winning at Portland is rarely an easy task. I backed the Blazers in their last game here and they crushed San Antonio by 40 points. True. The Spurs were seriously short-handed. However, winning by 40 points is still impressive. Prior to that blowout, in their previous game here, the Blazers beat a fairly solid Atlanta team by 20 points. Other notable home victories have come against the likes of the Clippers and Lakers. The Blazers did lose to the Thunder here. However, it should be noted that they'd previously beaten the Thunder at Oklahoma City. Also, note that loss came by only four points - which would be good enough for the cover here. In fact, the Blazers' home record (13-5 SU And 12-6 ATS) is actually superior (barely) to Miami's road record of 12-5 SU and 9-8 ATS. Yet, its Miami that laying a handful of points. Going back further finds Portland at an extremely impressive 72-34 here the past few seasons. They're outscoring opponents by more than a dozen points (12.7) per game here this season. That's far more than the 6.1 point advantage that the Heat have held over opponents on the road. True, the Blazers played last night, losing at Denver. However, as I pointed out when backing the Bulls against the Spurs last night, playing the second of b2b games right after the All Star break is considerably different than during other "busier" times of the schedule. There were several cases yesterday where the team playing the second of b2b games covered against the team that was dealing with a long layoff. That included Chicago, Washington, Detroit and Golden State. So, while that situation does help us in the "line value department," its not necessarily a negative during the actual game. Also, keep in mind that the Blazers are 32-20-1 ATS the past few seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. The Blazers won at Miami last season and they took the Heat to OT in the game here at Portland. I'll gladly grab the generous points but look for an outright victory here. *10 "Roast"

Reason: I'm playing on KENTUCKY. I backed the Wildcats (against Arkansas) the last time that they ended an ATS losing streak, back in mid January. They'd failed to cover several in a row, which had helped to bring the line down a little lower than it could have been. I felt the Wildcats were "ready to blow somebody out" and they were. Laying about -16, they won by 23. Kentucky then proceeded to have a profitable run at the betting window before cooling off recently. Having again failed to cover a few in a row and now playing their regular season home finale, I feel the Wildcats are again ready to deliver a blowout of more than 20 points. While the Wildcats are perfect at home, Georgia is 3-9 on the road. The Bulldogs shoot only 37.4% away from home, scoring a mere 58.3 points. That's hardly going to cut it against a Kentucky team which averages 82.2 here at home, shooting 49.5%. Not only are they up against one of the best teams in the country, I feel that this is a tough spot for the Bulldogs. They're off an upset win last time out and they've got their home finale coming up on Saturday, which happens to be a "revenge game" against South Carolina, a team which recently beat them by a single point. Given that situation, it may be easy to "pack this one in," seeing as they already know they're highly unlikely to win here. While the Bulldogs are 3-6 ATS (1-8 SU) the last nine times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 120s, the Wildcats are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 120s. The Wildcats already won and covered at Georgia. I expect more of the same here at home. *10 (Blue Marlin)

Reason: I'm playing on ILLINOIS. Yesterday, I backed an unranked Cincinnati team which was playing a red hot ranked opponent. The Bearcats rewarded me with a convincing victory. I'm playing on the Illini, also an unranked team facing a ranked one, for a few of the sam reasons that I played Cincy yesterday. Like the Bearcats, the Illini are very slight home favorites. Like the Bearcats, the Illini are playing their regular season home finale. Like the Bearcats, the Illini have had to overcome some adversity. Also, like the Bearcats, the Illini will be playing with "revenge," having already lost an earlier road game against this evening's opponent. They may not win quite as "easily" as Cincinnati did yesterday but I do look for the Illini to match the Bearcats where it counts, in the win column. Yes, the Illini struggled in February. Howevery, they snapped their skid with a solid win and cover last time out, giving them confidence coming in. Lets not forget that this team has beaten three ranked teams (Gonzaga, Ohio State and Michigan State) already this season. Lets also keep in mind that the Illini are fighting for their postseason lives and that a win over Michigan would be huge for them. Illinois coach Bruce Weber had this to say:

Reason: I'm playing on CLEVELAND. We're getting some extra line value with with the Cavaliers here, based on the fact that they played last night while the Knicks had the night off. While last night's loss vs. Boston was of the "hard fought variety," playing back-to-back games right after the All Star Break is somewhat different than playing b2b games "normally" is. After all, the majority of the players had a handful of days off before playing the back to back games. In fact, on the second day after the break, some players and coaches would prefer to be the team which is playing the second of b2b games than the team which is playing with an extra long layoff. Looking back to last season, on the second day back from the break and we find that teams which were playing the second of b2b games were 5-4 SU and either 5-3-1 ATS or 5-4 ATS (depending on whether using opening or closing lines) and that included a pair of massive underdogs which won outright. Playing the second of b2b games, listed as +9 point home underdogs, the Raptors upset the well-rested Bulls. The Kings were even bigger underdogs (+13 or +14) but they too won outright, a 111-105 win against the Magic, at Orlando. Speaking of underdogs winning outright, the Cavs already upset the Knicks, at New York. Listed as +4 point underdogs, Cleveland won by 10. Sure, the Knicks would love to avenge that loss. They're an ugly 5-10 ATS the last 15 times that they were in the "revenge" role though. So, it isn't typically a strong motivator for them. It should also be noted that the Knicks are a poor 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Three of those were outright losses, too. Overall, they're only 7-12-1 ATS when laying points, 8-10-1 ATS at home. On the other hand, with yesterday's cover, the Cavs are now 14-9-1 ATS as underdogs. That includes a 2-1 ATS mark as road underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10 (Best Bet)

Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Golden Eagles are on a red hot roll and come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Bearcats are favored (slightly) for good reason. While Marquette's 24 victories are certainly impressive, Cincinnati's got 20 of its own. The Bearcats have been very tough at home and have won four straight here. Last time on this floor, they knocked off Louisville. Earlier they pounded Notre Dame by double-digits here. In addition to its strong homecourt play, the Bearcats have road wins at venues like Pittsburgh, Connecticut and Georgetown, to name a few. In other words, they won't be intimated by Marquette. Playing their home finale and playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Marquette, the Bearcats figure to be extremely motivated here. Note that the Bearcats are 4-1 the last five times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. Marquette has its home finale on deck. That happens to come against Georgetown, one of just five teams to beat the Golden Eagles this season. On a big run and with that game on deck, I won't be surprised if the Golden Eagles experience a bit of a letdown here. Note that the Golden Eagles have already clinched a "double-bye" in the Big East Tournament and that even if they lose here, they can still clinch the #2 seed by winning their final game. The Bearcats are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home favorites (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. I expect them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WYOMING. I like how this one sets up for the home team. After losing four straight, the Cowboys got back last time out. They beat Boise State by double-digits, covering as -7 point favorites. Playing their final home game of the year, playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss AND knowing that they've got a very tough road game (UNLV) on deck, I expect the Cowboys to be extremely motivated here. A look at the recent 4-game skid shows that three of those games were on the road. Not surprising. Like every other team in the Mountain West, the Cowboys are MUCH better at home. While just 5-6 in away games, the Cowboys are 14-3 at home. The disparity is even bigger for the Horned Frogs. TCU is 13-2 at home but 4-9 on the road. The Frogs have admittedly been playing fairly well of late and enter on a nice ATS run. However, as you can guess from the above road record, most of their recent success has come at home. They eked out a rare win in their last road game. However, that was at Air Force and the Falcons have the fewest home wins of any team in the conference. Prior to that win, the Frogs had lost seven straight on the road. Note that the Frogs' regular season finale comes next. It comes at home (vs. SD State) and they'll be the ones playing with "revenge" in that one. Also, note that the Frogs' recent success at the betting window has helped to keep this line down. It could easily be higher, particularly when considering that Wyoming was laying -4 points when the teams met at TCU, at the beginning of this month. In addition to being a very poor road team, note that the Frogs are only 20-40 SU and 24-34-2 ATS their last 60 game against teams with a winning record. TCU does score a few more points than Wyoming. However, the Cowboys have a commanding advantage on the other side of the ball. While the Frogs allow 75.2 points per game on the road, the Cowboys allow an average of only 52.8 at home. While the Frogs are 0-5 SU the last five times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 120s, the Cowboys are 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS the last 11 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 120s. They beat the Frogs by 10 here last season and are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings here. I expect another double-diigt victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHICAGO. Often, when one of the league's best teams is facing one of the league's worst teams, I seem to find myself backing the bad team. Not this time. The Bulls are on a mission this season. At this point last year, they were 23-12. This season, despite having played without Derrick Rose for 10 games, (and Luol Deng for 7) the Bulls are four games better, checking in at 27-8. That includes a 13-2 mark at home. Knowing they take to the road after this game, the Bulls will surely be motivated to take care of business at home tonight. This well-coached team hasn't taken its foot off the gas against weak teams. The Bulls are 20-3 SU and 15-8 ATS against teams with a losing record and 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS against teams which score 91 or fewer points per game. The Hornets were actually playing well before the break. That said, the layoff probably didn't come at an ideal time for them. Even coach Monty Williams acknowledged: "As a coach, you almost want to keep playing ..." While the Bulls are 8-2 (6-4 ATS) against teams from the West, the Hornets are 2-8 (3-7 ATS) against teams from the East. Given those stats, its no surprise that the Bulls easily won this season's earlier meeting. That one wasn't close either, Chicago won by a score of 90-67. While they'd love to avenge the earlier loss, the Hornets, still dealing with a number of key injuries, figure to know they're in over their heads here. (They're 4-16 SU the last 20 times they played with revenge.) They've got a home game vs Toronto tomorrow which they'll actually have a chance to win. The Bulls are the better team and I also expect them to be the more focused team. That should lead to another one-sided affair. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OREGON STATE. Some may be surprised that the Beavers are favored over the Ducks here. After all, Oregon has the superior record, is the hotter team and is playing with "revenge." I feel the Beavers are favored for good reason though. With their 76-71 victory over at Oregon, the Beavers have now beaten the Ducks 184 times, that's the second-most wins against a single team in NCAA history. While the Ducks would love to avenge the earlier setback, they're just 3-14 SU (6-10-1 ATS) the last 17 times that that they attempted to avenge a home loss. The Beavers figure to be every bit as motivated, if not more so. Not only would they love to sweep their rivals, (Oregon swept them last year) they'd also desperately like to snap their current skid. Oregon State coach Craig Robinson had this to say on the team snapping its streak and on how the team had been practicing: "...We have had a good week of practice. We have been working hard and trying to figure out how to end this skid. I like the way the guys have been playing in practice and I think that it comes down to defending and rebounding. I think that if we can defend and rebound well, we will be in a good position to win the game." While they do give up a fair number of points, the Beavers know a thing or two about good defense. Oregon State has fewer turnovers than its opponent in 21 of their 27 games this season and is second in the Pac-12 with a +3.6 turnover margin. In fact, the Beavers have forced a Pac-12 best 476 turnovers (17.6 per game) this season, including 20 or more turnovers in nine games. The Beavers are 10-4 at home, outscoring opponents by a 84.6 to 71.1 margin here. They shoot 49.4% on this floor. Visiting teams have shot only 43.7%. The Ducks are 6-5 on the road. The Ducks are 3-9 ATS the past few seasons when playing with five or six day's rest, the Beavers are 4-1 ATS when playing with seven or more. The Beavers have been excellent as small home favorites. They're 3-1 SU/ATS the last four times that they were off three or more consecutive pointspread losses and 7-2 SU/ATS the last nine times that they were off three or more consecutive SU losses. I expect them to bounce back in a big way. *10 (Personal Favorite)

Reason: I'm playing on RIDER. *10 These teams both covered the spread on Friday. However, they did so in different fashion. Playing a very big game vs. Iona, the top team in the MAAC, Fairfield blew a lead and eventually lost. Meanwhile, playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss, Rider won outright as an underdog vs. Loyola Maryland, a solid team which is currently tied with Fairfield in the standings. That victory clinched a first round bye in the tournament and the fifth seed for Rider. I don't expect the Broncs to "take it easy" or have a "letdown" though. This is their final home game and they know Fairfield is still playing for positioning. They also know that the Stags beat them earlier, so will again be playing with revenge. Additionally, having just snapped a losing streak, the Broncs also want to keep the positive momentum going and head into the tournament on a winning note. The loss at Iona wasn't unexpected. However, it still figures to take a toll. The Stags could have still had a shot at first in the conference if they'd won that one and coming so close to doing so, only to fall short, figures to be tough to bounce back from. Note that the Stats are just 1-3 ATS the last four times they were off a conference loss, 8-14 ATS the past few seasons when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. Also, note that Fairfield's Desmond Wade is listed as questionable while Derek Needham is expected to be out. (Needham leads the team in assists and scores 11.8 points per game, so his loss is significant.) Additionally, note that the Stags are playing their fourth straight road game here, all of them coming since last Sunday. That's a tough stretch, one made tougher by the fact that the last game was such a "big" one. This is the only time all season that the Stags will have played four straight "true" road games. They were just 2-4 ATS after playing three or more consecutive road games the past few seasons. With a total in the high 130s, note that the Stags are just 3-6-1 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Meanwhile, the Broncs are 6-1 ATS when they've played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Rider covered the spread at Fairfield and I expect at least another cover here. Line move in our favor provides additional value. *10 (Best Bet)

Reason: I'm playing on CONNECTICUT. The boxscore shows that Syracuse blew out the Huskies in the first meeting. However, the fact is that game was very close the whole way, before the Orange pulled away at the end. Off a momentum-buidling victory, now playing at home and desperate for a "signature win," I expect the Huskies to give the Orange all they can handle again, this time doing so for the entire game. Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim knows this likely won't be easy. He was quoted as saying: "Connecticut played us evenly for almost the whole game here and then we had a spurt at the end so we know how difficult they can be, it was a two-point game here. I still think they

Reason: I'm playing on ALABAMA. The Bulldogs have the slightly better overall record and they beat Alabama already this season. However, I feel the Tide are the stronger team and believe that they're favored for good reason here. In fact, given the venue and the way the two teams are currently playing, I feel the line could easily be higher. The earlier meeting was at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs, who won that one by a score of 56-52, are 15-3 at home. However, they're only 4-6 away from home, going 2-5 SU/ATS in "true" road games, 1-5 SU/ATS in 2012. The loss at Mississippi State started a 4-game slide for the Tide. Alabama is back in the groove again now though; its last two games (vs. Tennessee and at Arkansas) both resulted in double-digit victories. The recent suspensions handed out seemingly did this team some good. They're expected to have JaMychal Green back today, as he's been reinstated. While the Tide are starting to roll, the Bulldogs are currently going through a tough stretch. In fact, they've lost four straight. Losing at home vs. Kentucky wasn't so bad. However, their previous three losses came against Auburn, LSU and Georgia. None of those teams have a record as good as Alabama. Note that Rodney Hood was injured last game and that he's currently listed as doubtful. Note that the Bulldogs may have covered vs. Kentucky (still lost by 9) but that they haven't covered the spread twice in a row this entire year. They're 0-4 ATS off a cover in 2012. Overall, they're 4-10 ATS dating back to New Year's Eve. The Tide have won 30 of their last 33 in this building. With this one on ESPN and being a "big game" and being their second to last home game, Coleman Coliseum will surely be rocking. They've dominated the Bulldogs here, including a 14 point win (as a -12 point favorite) here last season. The Tide are 10-6 the last 16 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. They're playing better than the Bulldogs right now and with the support of their energetic home crowd helping them, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. *10 (Personal Favorite)

Reason: I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Tar Heels beat up on the Cavaliers at North Carolina. I expect a vastly different result this afternoon. The Cavs are a different team here. They're 21-6 overall but 13-1 here at home. That's better than North Carolina's 6-2 mark on the road. Dominant defense has been the key to Virginia's success at home. The Cavs rank second in the entire country allowing a mere 48.2 points per game here. Visiting teams are shooting only 36.7 percent here. In their last game here, the Cavs crushed Maryland by a score of 71-44. Note that UNC is only 8-13 ATS the past few seasons, when facing a team which allows 64 or fewer points per game, in the second half of the season. Off the blowout win against the Terps, the Cavs proceeded to avenge their lone home loss, going on the road and beating V-Tech. Note that they're also 2-0 ATS the last two times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Playing with revenge and with a chance to earn a win against the mighty Tar Heels, I expect Virginia to be the "hungrier" team. It likely won't be easy but I feel this team has what it takes to score the upset and I look for them to do just that. *10 (Best Bet)

Reason: I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. The Golden Eagles have the much better overall record and the much higher ranking. The Golden Eagles have NEVER won here at Morgantown though and they'll be facing what should be a desperate and determined Mountaineers squad. The Mountaineers got embarrassed at Notre Dame last time out. Down two at halftime, they got blown out in the second half, en route to a 71-44 setback. Note that the Mountaineers, who had won 66-48 at Pittsburgh in the previous game, are 3-1 the last four times that they were off a game in which they scored 60 or fewer points. They're 9-4 in that situation the past few seasons. During that stretch, the Mountaineers were 14-6 when off a conference loss and 36-8 at home overall. That includes a perfect 3-0 record when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. As tough as the Golden Eagles have been overall and recently, note that they've still won just five of nine road games overall. In fact, they're below .500 (14-16) on the road the past few seasons. True, the Golden Eagles are trying to wrap up a "double-bye" in the Big East tournament. However, they've already clinched the first bye and will likely get the second, even if they lose here. On the other hand, the Mountaineers, who have dropped three straight here, desperately need a home win - and having it come vs. a ranked opponent would make things even sweeter. The Mountaineers haven't lost four home games in a row since the 2002/2003 season. I don't expect it to happen here tonight. I expect them to bring their A-Game and for that to lead to the big home win that they desperately need. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. The Knicks have been on a great run since Jeremy Lin showed up and they sure looked good in beating up on Atlanta last night. They're in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight though. Last night's game may have been "easy," but the Knicks still had to play. Miami had the day off. The Knicks aren't just playing a back-to-back here though. They're also playing their fourth game in the past five days. When they played the second of b2b games earlier this week they lost outright by eight (at home) vs. lowly New Jersey. Going back further finds them at 18-32 the last 50 times that they played the second of back to back games. Now, they'll be taking on a Miami team that is arguably playing better than any team in the league right now. The Heat have won seven straight - all seven wins have been by at least a dozen points. Yet, its Jeremy Lin who has graced the cover of Sports Illustrated in back to back weeks and its the Knicks who continue to get the lion's share of the media coverage. That can't sit too well with Lebron and co. As far as Lebron is concerned, he should be the one getting the attention. He knows that Lin and the Knicks already beat Kobe and he's surely going to be determined not to let them same thing happen to him - not with numerous celebrities in attendance and the whole world watching. Sure, the Knicks defense was great last night. The Heat have scored 105 or more points in six of their last seven games though, including 120 last time out. Plus, note that NY is just 1-4 ATS after allowing 85 or fewer points in its last game. The Heat beat the Knicks by 10 here last month. They're playing better now and I expect them to be be even more motivated. With the schedule in their favor, I expect an even more lopsided result. *10

Reason: on CHARLOTTE. Its true that the Bobcats have been bad. Ok. Really bad. That doesn't mean that they can't provide us with strong value. With the schedule and situation in their favor, I believe that's the case this evening. These teams just faced each other on Sunday, at Indiana. The Pacers won that 2/19 game by a score of 108-73, simply running the Bobcats out of the building. That should provide the Bobcats with some added motivation here, as will the fact that Indiana also did the same thing to them (also at Indiana) back on 1/7. The Pacers won that game by a score of 99-77. A closer look reveals that the Bobcats were in a very tough scheduling spot for that 1/7 game here though. Not only were they playing the second of back to back games, they were also playing their fourth game in five days. Tonight's game sets up far more favorably. This time, the Bobcats haven't played since Sunday's loss at Indiana. On the other hand, the Pacers are off an OT game vs. the Hornets last night. The Pacers did pull away in the extra session but the game was hard fought the entire way. Indeed, ALL five starters saw at least 39 minutes of action, including Granger with 41 minutes and George with 44. Note that the Pacers failed to cover the spread last night and are now an ugly 1-9 ATS their last 10 games. They're also 0-5 ATS the last five times that they played the second of back to back games. Even with the wins over Charlotte, the Pacers are now just 8-13 ATS when laying points and 6-8 ATS against teams with a losing record. The Bobcats are 11-8-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. Off Sunday's loss, Charlotte coach Paul Silas noted: "We just have to put this behind us and continue to grow. Anytime a team wins the way they did, they'll think that they can come back and do the same thing. So hopefully we will come with more effort and energy ... " Playing with double and recent revenge, I expect a highly motivated effort from Silas' crew here, as they take this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the outright win. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Spurs handed me a tough loss at Utah last night. Laying -3, they rallied for a 4-point win. They're at an even tougher venue against an even better team tonight though. They've been "living on the edge" recently and I expect their winning streak to come to an end here. The Blazers fell behind early at LA last night and lost 103-92 vs. the Lakers. They're much better at home though and they're already 2-1 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss. They've also dominated the Spurs here in recent seasons. I expect them to bounce back in a big way tonight. While they have come up just short in that situation a couple of times lately, note that the Blazers are still an outstanding 31-20-1 ATS (31-21 SU) the past few seasons, when playing the second of back to back games. Its also worth noting that they've already 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range this season. While the Blazers are 15-5 the last 20 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range, the Spurs are a poor 7-14 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the same range. Its been a great road trip already for the Spurs, who will still be without Ginobili here. However, this is now their eighth stop on that trip and I expect them to be getting road weary. Any type of fatigue figures to be very costly against a Portland team which has already defeated the likes of OKC and the Lakers. The Blazers, who are playing with "revenge" from a 1/13 loss at San Antonio, are a perfect 6-0 the last six times that they were a host in this series. They're also 7-5 ATS the last dozen times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion as the Spurs winning streak comes to a crashing halt. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NC STATE. Obviously, the Tar Heels are a talented and dangerous team. I expect them to have their hands full tonight though. While the Tar Heels are certainly capable of blowing out any team, on any given night, this typically isn't one of their best roles. They're only 7-10 ATS the last 17 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. The Tar Heels really haven't played many games off their home court in recent months. In fact, they've only played six games away from home (5 road games, 1 neutral) since 11/26. Three of those resulted in outright losses and two of them were single-digit wins. During that stretch, the only team they beat by double-digits on the road was Wake Forest and they didn't even cover the spread in that one. (Laying -16.5, they won by 15.) Perhaps looking ahead to this big game, the Wolfpack didn't play well vs. Florida State on Saturday. They nearly won at Duke before that though, losing by only five. Prior to that, they'd won three straight. Note that the loss vs. Duke was NC State's fourth loss by seven or fewer points. They lost a neutral court game by seven vs. Vanderbilt, lost by four at Stanford and by one vs. Virginia. So, not only could the record easily be better but the points could easily come into play here. Off Saturday's loss NC State coach Mark Gottfried had this to say: "We have to accept the fact that if you want to play in the greatest show on Earth, then you better toughen up and you better man up, pal. There is no other way to look at it. Teams that get to play in March are mentally tough enough to withstand most things, and they fight their way through it.

Reason: I'm playing on UTAH. The Spurs have been on a very impressive roll. I expect it to finally come to an end tonight though. Yes, the Jazz are playing the second of back to back games here, having lost at Houston last night. This is still only their third game in the past six days though, so its arguably not as difficult as some b2b situations. Also, in regards to last night's game, note that the Jazz are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS the last eight times that they were off a double-digit loss. The Jazz won their last home game by double-digits. They're 12-5 SU and 10-6-1 ATS here, continuing years of strong homecourt play. They're now 68-36 on this floor the past few seasons, 479-191 the past 10+ years. The Spurs are off a rather fortunate win over the Clippers. The Spurs were down three in the closing seconds and LA had the ball. Yet, they managed to force OT and go on to earn the victory. Give them credit - however, they could have easily been beaten. Its definitely very important to look at how teams handle the second of back-to-back games. However, its also important to consider how teams fare when playing the front end of b2b games. That comes into play here as the Spurs have a big showdown vs. Portland on deck tomorrow night. I played against the Spurs exactly one month ago (on 1/20) when they were playing the front end of back to back games, at Sacraemento. At the time, I noted that the Spurs were 0-4 ATS their last four in that situation. They went on to lose outright, falling to 0-5 ATS. Since that time, the Spurs have gone 2-1 ATS in that situation. However, it should be noted that one of the ATS wins was a 1-point SU loss, which wouldn't get it done here. Last time that they played the front end of b2b games, the Spurs failed to cover at Detroit. They're now 2-6 ATS their last eight in that situation. Note that the Spurs, who will be without Ginobili here, are just 8-12 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as road favorites of -3 or fewer points, going 1-3 ATS their last four in that situation. Playing with revenge from a blowout loss on New Year's Eve, I expect the Jazz to rise to the occasion and score the upset. *10 (Best Bet)

Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. I won with the Bears last Monday. However, I'm going against them here. The Bears are certainly a strong team, as indicated by their high national ranking. That said, they haven't been at their best for some time. Even with last Monday's big win over the Cyclones, they're still a dismal 2-8 ATS their last 10 games. A closer look shows that the Bears lost three of their last four outright, most recently a 1-point setback vs. K-State on Saturday. While the Bears surely want to immediately bounce back, those type of close losses are often tough to immediately recover from. They're still in the tournament regardless what they do here and they've also got a pair of relatively easy games (home games vs. Oklahoma and Texas Tech) following this one. So, even another loss here won't be the end of the world. Knowing they'll be heavily favored in each of their next two games, it may be easier to wait to "bounce back" until next game. There's no waiting for the Longhorns though, as the time is now. The Longhorns have made it to the NCAA Tournament in all 13 of Rick Barnes' years as coach. Only five other schools have done that, during the same span. That streak is in jeopardy though, making this game huge. A 'signature win" here would surely go a long way in locking up a 14th straight trip to the Dance. Not that they should need any added motivation, but its also worth noting that the Longhorns lost a close one (76-71) at Waco earlier. So, they're playing with 'revenge' here, potentially adding to their "hunger." While they've had some trouble on the road, the Longhorns are an outstanding 14-2 here at home. Their only two losses came vs. Missouri and Kansas - teams which are both 2-0 vs. Baylor - and those two losses came by only four combined points. With an O/U line in the high 130s, note that Texas is a lucrative 17-8 ATS (20-5 SU) the last 25 times it played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. That includes a 4-2 ATS mark at home when the line ranged from the 135 to 139.5. On the other hand, Baylor is an awful 2-9 ATS the last 11 times that it played a road game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range, going 0-11 SU in those games. (In other words, one would be 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS if going against the Bears the L11 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in that range.) Over Barnes' career here, the Longhorns are a commanding 12-1 at home against the Bears. They won by nine here last season. Desperate for a "signature win" and looking to avenge the earlier loss, I expect them to improve on those stats tonight, covering the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. We're getting a fairly low line on the Rockets here, due partly to the fact that they played yesterday. I feel that's providing us with excellent value on what should be a highly motivated Rockets team, one which is quietly playing very well here. The Rockets hosted Utah yesterday. Laying -6, they won by 16. Now, they're laying a much smaller number, again due in part to the fact that they played last night. The Rockets have actually played well when playing the second of b2b games though. The last time they were in that situation, they defeated Oklahoma City, a 96-95 win on 2/15. I won with Houston in that game. At the time, I noted the following, a small excerpt from the analysis of that game: "... In addition to being tough on their home floor, the Rockets have shown an ability to be able to play well, when playing the second of back-to-back games, an important skill in this year's NBA. In fact, Houston is 6-1 ATS the last seven times it played the second of b2b games, most recently winning outright as a +4 point underdog..." Naturally, with the win over the Thunder, the Rockets are now 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they played the second of b2b games. That game against Oklahoma City was "double-revenge" spot for the Rockets as OKC had beaten them in both previous meetings. That's the case again tonight, as the Rockets have dropped both games to the Grizzlies. That should provide plenty of motivation. Both earlier meetings came at Memphis, where the Grizzlies are much better. Tonight, the Rockets finally catch the Grizzlies here at Houston, where they are much better. With yesterday's victory, the Rockets are now an an impressive 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS on this floor. Memphis checks in at 6-9 SU and 7-8 ATS on the road. The Grizzlies are averaging 87.9 points and allowing 92.3 on the road. The Rockets are allowing a similar number (93.5) here at home. However, they're also scoring an impressive 99.9 here at home, a dozen more than Memphis scores on the road. The Rockets are now 9-3 ATS against winning teams. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are only 7-12 ATS against winning teams. The Rockets have also absolutely owned the Grizzlies here. They've beaten them 10 straight times here and 25 out of 30. All things considered, the low number seems more than fair. *10 (Personal Favorite)

Reason: I'm playing on PHOENIX. If you read my O/U report from this same game, you know that these teams just faced each other at LA, a couple of nights ago. You'll also know that the Lakers won that one convincingly, a 111-99 victory. Tonight's rematch is at Phoenix though. I expect the revenge-minded Suns to bounce back and return the favor. While the Lakers are favored here, that's certainly not due to their play on the road this season. Indeed, they're an awful 5-10 SU as the road team, going an even worse 4-11 ATS. They've been outscored 95.8 to 90.7 in those games. While the Lakers have won three straight, note that they're an ugly 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were off three straight wins, going a money-burning 33-40-1 ATS in that situation the past few seasons. While the Suns admittedly haven't been great at home either, they've been better here than the Lakers have been on the road. This team is still 66-37 SU here the past few seasons. True, the Suns have struggled lately. With 2-time MVP Steve Nash rested, they're still a dangerous team though - particularly when motivated. Nash, who had 17 assists in Friday's game, leads the league at 10.9 assists per game. He's also capable of taking over himself though and I won't be surprised if he looks to score more himself in this one. Desperate to snap their skid, playing with immediate revenge and with Kobe essentially "trash-talking" them, I expect we'll see the best of the Suns here. Most likely, the ATS winner of this game will also be the SU winner. However, with the Suns getting a few points, its worth noting that three of the last six games played on this floor have been decided by three points or less, two of them by two points. The Suns are 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS off a double-digit loss. They're 23-17 SU their last 40 in that situation. They're also 4-2-1 ATS (4-3 SU) off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PURDUE. This line has climbed since it first came out. I believe that's giving us excellent value with the revenge-minded and desperate home team. The Spartans are certainly rolling. However, they're now in the middle of a very tough stretch. Coach Izzo knows they can't take anything for granted. He was quoted as saying: "There are a lot of concerns. We've got four more quick turnarounds..." The Boilermakers come in "short-handed," having suspended a couple of players. Off a "wounded" animal can be a dangerous one - and I expect them the remaining players to respond positively to the situation and elevate their game. The Boilermakers are desperate for a "signature victory" to give them a legit shot at getting invited to the Big Dance. This would certainly qualify. Throw in the fact that the Spartans embarrassed them at East Lansing and this should indeed be an extremely motivated Boilermakers' squad. The Spartans are only 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -6 range. Meanwhile, Purdue is 6-2 ATS its last eight as an underdog, going 11-6 ATS its last 17. I expect those stats to improve here as the Boilermakers give their guests all they can handle, and then some. *10

Reason: I'm playing on VILLANOVA. The Irish are having a great season and have the much better overall record. I have a feeling they're ripe for a letdown here though. Notre Dame just moved into the Top 25 Monday and proceeded to thump Rutgers. Having now "legitimized" their ranking and having won seven straight, the Irish figure to be feeling pretty good about themselves. With a rematch vs. West Virginia on deck, they could easily overlook a struggling and banged-up Villanova team. Note that Notre Dame is only 2-4-1 ATS when listed as a favorite. With an O/U line in the low 130s, note that the Irish are only 1-4 SU/ATS the last five times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range. Winning on the road in the Big East is rarely easy. Lets also remember that this is still a well-coached and dangerous Villanova squad. Even if they don't have Maalik Wayns and/or James Bell in the lineup, I expect Jay Wright to have his team fully ready for this one. Lets not forget that Villanova is 9-3 at home while Notre Dame is 4-7 on the road. Despite their recent struggles, they've still won three of five here, the two losses coming against Syracuse and Marquette. Note that Villanova is 9-5 SU/ATS the last 14 times it was listed as a home underdog of three or fewer points. Its been a disappointing stretch for the Wildcats. A win against a ranked opponent would sure fix a lot of problems though. Catching the Irish patting themselves on the back and feeling a little too good, I expect them Wildcats to rise to the occasion and pull off the upset. *10

Reason: I'm playing on AUSTIN PEAY. The Governors have been struggling in conference play recently. I expect a game against a (mediocre) team from outside the Ohio Valley to prove to be just what the doctor ordered. The Penguins have over-achieved somewhat in the Horizon League this season. Give them credit for hanging around. However, they aren't particularly talented. They've lost two of three and three of five, so are starting to come back down to earth. Hailing from the Horizon, the Penguins typically face a lot of good defensive teams, ones which don't necessarily score that many points. Therefore, the majority of their O/U lines are rather low. A look at their last 10 games reveals that ALL 10 of those games had O/U lines ranging between 127 and 136. Austin Peay home games are averaging 145.2 points though, as games in the Ohio Valley tend to be higher-scoring than those in the Horizon. That's led to an O/U line in the low 140s. That's worth mentioning as the Penguins don't typically fare too well in games that are expected to be higher-scoring. In fact, they're only 11-24-3 ATS (9-28 SU) their last 37 games with an O/U line in the 140s, including a 4-10-2 ATS (2-14 SU) mark their last 16. Refining the numbers still further finds the Penguins at 0-9 SU and 2-6-1 ATS the last nine times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. The Governors badly need this game. Its an opportunity to snap their skid and to avoid (postpone) hitting the 20 loss mark. They're 6-3 SU/ATS the past few seasons, after failing to cover their previous three games, including a 3-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Governors have beaten the Penguins four straight times, when the teams shared the same conference. Desperate to snap their skid, I expect them to be the hungrier team and for that to lead to a convincing win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I like how this one sets up for the visiting team. Both teams played yesterday. The Warriors suffered a blowout loss at Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies earned a hard-fought 103-102 win over Denver. The Grizzlies arguably had to work harder in their win than did the Warriors in their loss. Indeed, no Golden State player played more than 30 minutes. Meanwhile, five Grizzlies played at least 30 minutes, including Conley with 38 minutes and Gasol and Gay with 41 each. The Grizzlies are also arguably in a more difficult scheduling spot. Obviously, both teams are in a b2b spot. Both teams are also playing their third game in four days. However, the Grizzlies will also now be playing their fourth game in the past five days; that is not the case for Golden State. Golden State has fared pretty well when playing the back end of b2b games. The last time that the Warriors played the second of back to back games, they beat Phoenix by six points. Earlier in the season, the Warriors beat Chicago when playing the second of b2b games. They've only lost twice in that situation this season and those losses came by an average of just four points. This is a fairly big number, considering that the Grizzlies have been involved in a lot of close games recently. They've played seven straight games which have been decided by 10 or fewer points and five of those were decided by six or less. The Warriors have also been involved in some close games recently. Prior to last night's loss, they'd won three of five. The three victories all came by single-digits and the two losses were by just five combined points. Speaking of "close games," this season's lone meeting saw the Grizzlies go to Oakland and upset the Warriors, 91-90. That should provide some added motivation for the Warriors to return the favor. Listed as +6 points underdogs, the Warriors won outright (109-101 at Denver) the last time that they played on the road. In a game that could easily again come down to the wire, I'll gladly grab the points. That said, I expect the Warriors to step up and score another outright win. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NC STATE. The Seminoles come in with the higher ranking. However, I feel that the Wolfpack are (slightly) favored for good reason. The Wolfpack are a dismal 3-9 ATS in home lined games this season. However, that only tells part of the story. A closer look reveals that they're actually 8-4 SU in home lined games, 12-4 in home games overall. I mention the SU records, as with this afternoon's line being close to a "pick'em," a SU win has a very strong chance of also resulting in an ATS win. The Seminoles have been outstanding at home but they're only 4-6 away from home, 3-4 SU/ATS in road line games. The Wolfpack are off a 5-point loss at Duke, covering as +10 point underdogs. Prior to that, they'd won three straight. Their most recent home game resulted in a double-digit victory. The Seminoles do own wins over both Duke and UNC. So, they've shown they can beat just about any team. That said, they're also 0-4 ATS their last four games. Their last road game resulted in an outright loss (64-60) against a bad Boston College team. Off a 1-point win on Thursday and with a rematch with Duke on deck, the Seminoles could well be caught looking ahead here. Note that they're 0-2 SU/ATS in lined games this season, when playing with one or fewer day's rest in between games. They haven't done so since back in November. The Wolfpack also played on Thursday. However, they're a much better 4-1 SU/ATS when playing with one or less day's rest, a situation they've gone 9-5 SU/ATS in the past few seasons. The Wolfpack are 29-5 SU the last 34 times that they were favored. I expect them to improve on those stats here, covering the very small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I won with the Mavericks in their last game. That was against a short-handed Denver team though. Also, the game was being played at Dallas, where the champs are a solid 12-5. The Mavs are only 7-6 on the road though. Tonight they'll be the short-handed squad. They'll also be taking on what should be a very determined 76ers team, one which is 13-5 here at Philadelphia. All teams "get up" for a game against the defending champs. I expect that to be particularly true of the 76ers. They've dropped a few recent games against "elite" teams and know that a big win here would go a long way to quieting the critics. While the 76'ers will be sky high with a chance to beat the champs on National TV, off five straight wins, the Mavs may be starting to get a little complacent. Even if that's not the case, they're going to have their hands full. Their task is even tougher when considering that they're expected to be without Jason Terry and Delonte West. Terry is a veteran player with a knack for hitting big shots when the Mavs really need him to. West is considered to be the Mavs' top perimeter defender. Both figured to be missed against a very deep Philadelphia team. The 76ers are 3-0 ATS after playing three straight on the road. They're also 2-1 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss. Even better, they're 16-7 ATS when listed as favorites. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MARYLAND. Both these teams lost last time out. Not surprising, as both were fairly heavy underdogs. The Terrapins got hammered at Duke. The Eagles, on the other hand, nearly pulled off a big upset at Virginia Tech. They didn't though, eventually losing a 1-point heartbreaker. A blowout loss can often be easier to "bounce back" from than a close one though. Throw in the fact that the Terps are more talented AND playing at home and I'm expecting a blowout. While they did nearly score the upset last time out, the Eagles are now just 1-9 away from home. They're now playing back to back road games for the first time in 2012. The last time that the Eagles played away from home, after having also played away from home in their previous game, was a 11/27 neutral court game vs. New Mexico. Listed as +13 point underdogs, the Eagles lost by 18. A win vs. G-Tech on 1/15 wrapped up a 9-1 stretch for the Terps. Since then, they've been dealing with a brutal schedule. Their last eight games have come at Florida State, at Temple, vs. Duke, vs. V-Tech, at Miami, vs. UNC, at Clemson and at Duke. That's eight tough opponents, facing five of them on the road. So, a 2-6 SU record certainly wasn't great - but it wasn't as bad as it sounds, either. Now, the Terps finally get a chance to face a weaker team at home. I expect them to make the most of it. The Terps, who had covered four straight before the loss at Duke, are 13-5 SU and 10-6-2 ATS the past few seasons, when off a conference loss. That includes a 3-1-1 ATS mark this season. The Terps haven't forgotten that Boston College upset them twice last season. They're a perfect 17-0 SU their last 17 against teams with a losing record. I expect them to improve on those stats here, picking up the cover along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DALLAS. While they won by only four (a push for most) last time out, the Mavericks are rolling. The defending champs have now won four straight, going 2-1-1 ATS. That includes a 10-point win over these same Nuggets. While Denver would surely love to avenge that loss, its not a good spot to do so. The Mavs are rested. They had last night off. They played Monday and had Sunday off. The Nuggets, on the other hand, are off a win vs. Phoenix last night. They're already 0-2 SU/ATS in February when playing the second of back-to-back games. Note that the Nuggets have been playing without Gallinari, their leading scorer. Also, note that the Nuggets played last night's game without Nene, who could be out again. Additionally, the Nuggets have been without center Mozgov for six straight games. The Mavs did win at Denver recently. However, having been beaten by the Nuggets at Dallas, (at the beginning of the season when they were struggling) the Mavs figure to still have some payback on their minds. The Mavs are 3-0 ATS as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10 (Personal Favorite)

Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. Both teams played last night. The Thunder won easily against Utah. The Rockets lost at Memphis. That's one of the reasons I expect the Rockets to be a little more "hungry" than their guests this evening. The other reason is that the Rockets will be playing with "double-revenge." These teams met at OKC on 1/6. The Thunder won by 15. They played again here at Houston the next night. The Rockets played much better. While Durant beat them in the closing seconds, the Rockets lost by only three points, which was good enough for a cover. I won't be surprised if they take it one step further and score the outright upset this time. While the Thunder have been very good on the road, the Rockets have been arguably even better at home. The Thunder are 12-5 SU and 10-7 ATS away from OKC. The Rockets are 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS at home. A closer look shows that the Thunder are only outscoring teams by a 100.5 to 98.1 margin on the road. On the other hand, the Rockets are outscoring teams by a 100.2 to 92.1 margin here at Houston. Last time on this floor, the Rockets smashed the Suns by 17 points. In addition to being tough on their home floor, the Rockets have shown an ability to be able to play well, when playing the second of back-to-back games, an important skill in this year's NBA. In fact, Houston is 6-1 ATS the last seven times it played the second of b2b games, most recently winning outright as a +4 point underdog. The Rockets are 7-3 ATS against teams with a winning record and they're 4-2 SU/ATS as a host in this series, since the Thunder moved from Seattle. The Rockets have already beaten two of the other top teams in the West here. Not only did they beat Portland, they defeated the Spurs here twice. I'll grab the points but look for them to step up and score the outright upset here. *10 (Best Bet)

Reason: I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. At first glance, at least for those not up to speed on what's currently going on in the Atlantic-10, this line may seem a little high. After all, the Spiders have hammered the Billikens twice in a row, including a winner in last year's lone meeting. The Spiders won those two games by a combined 38 points. Things figure to be much different this time, however, A closer look at the last two meetings shows that they both came at Richmond. Tonight's game is at St. Louis. Obviously, that's huge. Just as important, the Billikens are a vastly improved team this season while the same cannot be said of the Spiders. St. Louis enters today's action with a 20-5 record including an impressive 12-1 record at home. Richmond, on the other hand, is 13-13 and just 3-8 on the road. The Spiders are off a deflating 2-point home loss against George Washington, a game they were favored by -6.5 points. They're now 1-4 SU/ATS their last five games. Their last road game resulted in a 9-point loss at Duquesne. Prior to that, they lost by 15 at St. Bonaventure and by 18 at George Washington. So, you can see they haven't fared too well in their recent road games. Those three road games came against teams that currently rank 8th, 9th and 13th in the A-10. The Spiders were still blown out by an average of 14 points. Now, they'll take on a far tougher opponent, as the Billikens are right at the top of the A-10 and are dominating teams here at St. Louis. The Billikens have been playing stingy defense for years. That's the case again this season. In fact, they're allowing a mere 56.8 points per game. That's by far the best mark of all the teams in the A-10. (Only one other team is allowing less than 65 and that's St. Bonaventure at 63.1.) Teams visiting St. Louis are averaging a paltry 50.8 points, hitting only 38.7% of their shots. This year, the Billikens are also playing well on the offensive side of the ball. They're averaging a healthy 69.4 points per game including 70.6 here at home, where they shoot 47.9%. While the Spiders are just 4-7 ATS as underdogs, the Billikens are 12-7 ATS as favorites. That includes a 4-0 ATS mark as home favorites of greater than a dozen points. In addition to dominating the A-10, the Billikens have earned double-digit wins over teams from the Big East (Villanova) the Big 12 (Oklahoma) the ACC (Boston College) and the Pac-12 (Washington). With payback on their minds from last season, I expect the Billikens to wear down the Spiders with their defense and depth en route to another convincing win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANA. The Heat hammered the Pacers in this season's lone meeting. That 118-83 beatdown was played at Miami though. Tonight's rematch is being played at Indiana, where the Pacers have a solid 7-3 record. Playing with revenge from their worst loss of the season and with the schedule strongly in their favor, I expect the Pacers to get some payback tonight. The Heat are a very good team, obviously. When they're clicking, they can make it look easy. This is a very tough spot for them. Last night, the Heat played a big "double revenge" game at Milwaukee. That was a big game for Miami, having lost both previous games to the Heat. Coach Spoelstra noted that Milwaukee had his attention and that Heat had to win what he described as the high-effort "fistfight battles" on the court. They did. Still, that required considerable effort. Lebron played 33 minutes. Bosh played 30 and Wade played 28. Those numbers aren't so bad by themselves. However, when also factoring in that Lebron and Bosh also both played 30 or more minutes on Sunday, we may well start to see a bit of fatigue this evening. Not only will this be Miami's third game in three days, it will also be the sixth game in eight days. All six of those have been in different cities, too. Off that grueling stretch of games and knowing they have a rest followed by a visit to Lebron's old stomping grounds (Clev.) the Heat could easily "let down" a little in the intensity department, too. Even with last night's cover, the Heat are still only 3-6 ATS when playing the second of back to back games. While the Heat are playing their third game in three days, the Pacers have had the past two day's off. The Pacers were upset (lost by 4 as a 3-pt favorite) by Denver last time out. They're 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU!) the last five times that they were off an upset loss though. I expect them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Cavaliers have the better record and the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Tigers are (slight) favorites for good reason. These teams met at Virginia a couple of weeks ago. Not surprisingly, the Cavailers won that game. However, it was actually very close, as the Tigers gave their hosts all they could handle. Virginia would eventually win 65-61. Joe Harris, who plays more minutes than any other Virginia player, scored 19 of those points. Harris, who is second on the team in both scoring and rebounding, may be at less than 100% here though, assuming he even plays. That's because he fractured a bone in his (non-shooting) hand on Saturday. If he even plays, he'll be wearing some kind of protection. While Harris' status is currently still up in the air, the Tigers know they'll have Milton Jennings in the lineup, a luxury they didn't have two weeks ago. As Virginia coach Tony Bennett noted of the first meeting "They did not have Jennings for that game. And now they have him and he's played very well for them." Since returning, Jennings is averaging 14.5 points, shooting 58%. Clemson coach Brad Brownell had this to say of his return: "If he can make his perimeter shot, that really helps our offense out in terms of giving us another shooter on the floor. He shot reasonably well the last couple of games." Jennings and co. are coming out a breakout offensive performance as the team shot a whopping 58.2% in a 78-58 destruction of Wake Forest. While Virginia is obviously a much tougher opponent, the big win figures to give Clemson confidence here, as does the fact that they already went toe-to-toe with the Cavs on the road. The Cavs are obviously a very good team. I feel that the Tigers are better than their record indicates too though. Indeed, a number of their conference losses have been very close and they could easily have a better record. I expect them to be extremely motivated to get a win vs. a ranked opponent here. Note that the Cavs have dropped two straight on the road - and that their previous road game before that was a 1-point win. So, while they're a very good team - they're not unbeatable when playing away from Virginia. The Tigers lost by two vs. Maryland last time here, a disappointing loss. However, they'd won three of their previous four home games, the lone loss coming vs. Duke. Two of those wins came by double-digits including a 79-59 destruction of a good Florida State team. The Tigers won big the last time that they hosted the Cavs, a 72-49 victory in February of 2010. Things won't be that easy for the Tigers tonight. However, I do expect them to play their best game and come away with the victory, improving to 4-0 SU the last four times that they played a home game where the O/U line was less than 120. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DALLAS. These teams met last month. The Clippers won that 1/18 meeting by a score of 91-89. That was at LA though and the Clippers got 21 points, including the winning 3-pointer at the buzzer, from Chauncy Billups. The Mavericks also entered that game off a close loss vs. the Lakers, which may have been a bit deflating. Things are different this time though. This time, the Mavs are off a close victory, rather than a close loss. They've won three straight and have some positive momentum. This time, the Mavs won't have to worry about Billups beating them at the buzzer. Most importantly, this time they'll be facing the Clippers here at Dallas. True, the Clippers didn't have Chris Paul for the earlier meeting. Obviously, he makes them a lot better. However, as noted, Billups had a huge game in the earlier meeting and won't be here this time. Also, having lost to the Clippers when they were without their best player, should provide the Mavs with some added motivation here. Additionally, note that the Mavs played the first meeting without Vince Carter and when Kidd was still working his way back into game shape. Even with the loss at LA, the Mavs are still 5-1 ATS against teams from the Pacific. Going back further finds them at an outstanding 30-15-1 ATS (37-9 SU) against Pacific teams the past few seasons. On the other hand, during the same stretch, the Clippers remain a money-burning 11-28-1 ATS (11-29 SU) against teams from the Southwest. The Clippers are off an impressive 111-86 blowout win. That was at Charlotte though and the Bobcats are the worst team in the league. Note that LA is already 2-4-1 ATS after scoring 105 or more in their previous game. They're now an awful 14-28-2 ATS after scoring 105 or more the past few seasons. In addition to being 5-3-1 ATS (9-0 SU!) the last nine times that they were a host in this series, the Mavs are 5-4 ATS (6-3 SU) the last nine times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. Dirk had this to say of today's game: "The Clippers beat us there a couple of weeks ago on a last-second shot. They

Reason: I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. No question about it. The Hornets are struggling. However, even "struggling teams" can be a good bet when the situation is favorable for them. In tonight's case, I feel that the Hornets have a lot going for them. The Hornets have been dealing with some injuries. Therefore, having had the past two days off figures to be beneficial. (They're a profitable 73-51 ATS the past several seasons with 2 day's off.) The players they do have will be fresh. That is not the case for the Jazz. Utah is coming off a hard-fought win at Memphis last night. Three starters saw at least 34 minutes of action. The Jazz will now be playing their third game in the past four days. Perhaps even more importantly, it should also be noted that the Jazz play again tomorrow. That's an important "revenge" game against Oklahoma City. Not only did the Thunder just beat the Jazz (at Utah) but they're also the top team in Utah's division. So, there could easily be some "looking ahead" going on. In other words, the Jazz may not be full focused on a struggling non-divisional opponent like New Orleans. The Jazz aren't a good enough road team to take anyone lightly though. Even with last night's victory, they're still just 3-7 on the road. As they're laying a small handful of points, note that one of Utah's three road victories came by a single point, too. The Jazz are now 43-54 away from Salt Lake City the past 2+ seasons. While they haven't been getting any "W's" to show for it, the Hornets have still been playing hard. They've faced some tough teams of late as their last two games have come against Chicago and Portland. Last time out, they lost by eight vs. the Blazers and that marked their fourth loss of eight or fewer points in their past five games. A closer look at the Portland game shows that the Hornets were actually within two points with less than one minute remaining. Coach Monty Williams had this to say of the team's effort: "When I look at this game, I see guys who fought, who competed, who were put in a tough situation and battled all night. I'm proud to be around a group of guys who fight no matter what the situation. We have to get better down the stretch, but we had guys out there who had never been in that position and it was a good learning experience." Speaking of "close" games, the Hornets covered at Salt Lake City in this season's lone meeting. Utah won. But only by four. This is the final game of a homestand for the Hornets, as their next six come on the road. That said, I expect them to be extremely motivated to snap their skid. With the schedule in their favor, I look for them to do just that. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BAYLOR. I've been avoiding playing on the Bears. Good thing too. They're 0-5 ATS their last five, 1-7 ATS their last eight and 3-10-1 ATS their last 14. All those pointspread losses are working in our favor though. Many lost with Baylor again on Saturday and are less willing to back the Bears here as a result. That's kept this line to single-digits. As I expect a big win, I feel that relatively low line is providing us with excellent value. Off two straight blowout losses, the Bears figure to be in a foul mood. In their defense, those losses came at Missouri and vs. Kansas. Lets not forget that prior to those losses, the Bears had won four straight. They're still 21-4 on the season and Missouri and Kansas are the only two teams which have defeated them. A big win tonight would really help the Bears confidence and I look for them to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way. Iowa State is a solid enough team, one which has been on a nice ATS run. That said, the Cyclones are not in the same class as Missouri or Kansas. Their last road game resulted in a loss at Oklahoma City. The Bears have already swept those same Cowboys, winning by 45 combined points. The Bears are 5-0 against the Cyclones here at Waco, dating back to 2000. Laying -11.5, they beat them by a score of 84-63 here last season. They're still 4-2-1 ATS the last few seasons, after failing to cover three straight games. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on VIRGINIA TECH. The Eagles have a better pointspread record on the year than do the Hokies. That doesn't mean they're a better team though. Indeed, this year's Eagles are not much of a team at all. At 8-16 they've got the worst record in the conference. The Hokies could desperately use a "big" win and they know this is their best opportunity to get one. I expect a convincing victory. The Eagles are off a are victory last time out. However, they'd previous lost six straight. That win came at home. They lost their previous game by only four points, too. However, that one came at Georgia Tech, a team which is only 4-7 at home and 9-15 overall. The Eagles, 1-8 on the road overall, are certainly capable of getting blown out. They lost by 22 at Holy Cross. They lost by 36 at Massachusetts. They even lost at home to Boston U by 14 points. Other notable double-digit losses came against St. Louis (11), New Mexico (18) and Harvard (21). Since starting ACC play, they're 0-4 on the road and three of the losses came by at least 14 points. Considering that the Eagles were +9.5 at Georgia Tech, +18 at Virginia and +16 at NC State, I feel this line could easily be higher. The Hokies should have some added motivation to really lay a beating on the Eagles here. That's because they were upset at Boston College last month. Laying -9, they lost by two. Additionally, the Eagles beat them both times in 2011 including a 76-61 game here, when the Hokies were laying -9. Playing with revenge and looking to build some positive momentum with a big win, I look for the Hokies to bounce back and improve to 10-5-1 ATS (13-3) the last 16 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 120s. *10

Reason: I'm playing on FAIRFIELD. I'm well aware that the Greyhounds have been playing well. In fact, I just won with them on Friday when they knocked off Iona. They were underdogs for that game while also playing with "revenge." They'd been strong in the revenge role and I felt they were offering excellent value. They won by six. This time, however, the Greyhounds are laying points. Additionally, this time, they're now facing an opponent which is playing with revenge. Off the win over Iona, one of the biggest in program history, I won't be surprised if they have a bit of a letdown here. Either way, I expect them to have their hands full by what figures to be an extremely motivated Fairfield team. While the Greyhounds have been a pleasant surprise, the Stats have disappointed a little this season. They're still only 2.5 games back of the Greyhounds in the MAAC standings though and are currently playing their best basketball. The Stags know this is essentially a "must win" game for them, if they want to keep their slim hopes of winning the conference alive. Additional motivation comes from the fact that the Greyhounds upset the Stags, at Fairfield. Note that game was very close. Loyola won by three. Also, note that the Stags have been excellent in the revenge role. In fact, Fairfield was playing with revenge in each of its last two games. While they only went 1-1 ATS in those games, the Stags were 2-0 SU. They beat Siena by eight and Manhattan by six. They've now four straight. Since losing vs. these same Greyhounds, the Stags have won six of seven. Going back further finds the Stags at an impressive 29-18 ATS their last 47 lined games, when playing with revenge. That includes a 4-2 ATS mark their last six in that situation. While they did give up a lot of second half points vs. Iona, the Greyhounds have been playing very stingy defense of late. They'll be taking on another very good defensive team here. In fact, Fairfield has held three of its last four opponents to 56 or fewer points and is allowing the fewest points in the entire conference. The Greyhounds rank second. Not surprisingly, given that they're the two best defenses in the conference, this game has quite a low O/U line and is expected to be low-scoring. That figures to work in the Stags favor. They're 7-5 ATS (8-4 SU) the last 12 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 120s. On the other hand, the Greyhounds are a terrible 1-12 ATS (6-7 SU) the last 13 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 120s. Last year's meeting here was decided by a single point. Loyola won 66-65. That makes three of the last four meetings in this series which were decided by four or fewer points. (Fairfield won the other by double-digits.) I feel the Stags have an excellent shot at the outright upset here. However, in a game that could easily again come down to the wire, I'll gladly grab the points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Both teams played last night. With new start Jeremy Lin leading the way, the Knicks knocked off the Lakers. Meanwhile, Minnesota was defeated by Dallas, its second straight loss. I expect that situation to favor the T-Wolves and for them to bounce back with a big win and cover. Last night's win was huge for the Knicks, as it came vs. the Lakers at MSG. All the stars were out and the game was on National TV. Off that emotional victory, I won't be surprised if they suffer a letdown here. On the other hand, off back to back losses, the T-Wolves should be extremely motivated to "right the ship." Note that the T-Wolves did not have to travel off last night's game while the Knicks did. Also, note that the Knicks are 2-5-1 ATS when playing the second of back to back games while the T-Wolves are 6-3 ATS when they've done so. Also, note that the Knicks are already playing their 7th game since 2/2. This will be the T-Wolves sixth game, during the same stretch. That extra game squeezed in there, making this the Knicks 7th game in 10 days, figures to take a toll here. Keep in mind that they're still without Carmelo and are again expected to also be without Stoudemire. The T-Wolves beat the Knicks by nine here last season. The previous season, they beat NY by 21 here. In fact, they're 4-1 SU/ATS the last five times that they were a host in the series, going 11-3 SU the last 14 meetings here. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10 (Personal Favorite)

Reason: I'm playing on GONZAGA. I won with the Bulldogs on Thursday night. Listed as small favorites, they crushed St. Mary's. That big win figures to give them some positive momentum. Taking a step down in class, I look for them to follow it up with another convincing victory this evening. Loyola Marymount has been playing fairly solid basketball of late and has enjoyed a fine season. The Lions have played particularly well on the road. That said, I don't feel that the Lions are in the same class as Gonzaga, St. Mary's or BYU and I expect them to stumble tonight. The Bulldogs have dominated conference opponents here at Spokane for years and that includes the Lions. Indeed, the last time that the Lions won in Spokane was in 1992, a streak of 22 games. The Bulldogs are now 101-7 here at McCarthy Center. Last year's meeting here saw Gonzaga win by 20, laying -16.5. In fact, Gonzaga has won by at least 16 points each of the last six times it was the host in this series, going 5-1 ATS. The Bulldogs won those six games by an average margin of 23.5 points per game! With an O/U line in the high 130s, note that the Lions are only 6-9 ATS (5-10 SU) the last 15 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. During that stretch, the Bulldogs were 10-5 ATS (15-0 SU!) when playing a home game with an O/U line in the same range. While the Lions want to join the "big 3" at the top of this conference, I don't feel they're quite ready to be there. I expect the Bulldogs to continue their homecourt dominance in this series, en route to another win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. The Cardinals come in with the higher ranking. However, I feel that the Mountaineers are favored for good reason. Off a tough loss vs. Notre Dame, having now lost four of five AND with back to back difficult road games on deck, the Mountaineers desperately need a victory here. I expect them to respond with their very best effort. The Mountaineers have now failed to cover the spread three straight games, the first time that's happened this season. That shouldn't stop us from backing them here though as they're 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the last seven times that they were off three or more consecutive pointspread losses. On the other hand, the Cardinals are on a roll. They've won five straight. That shouldn't stop us from going against them here though either. The Cardinals were on a 4-game winning streak the last time that they played here and they still lost that one. With an O/U line in the low 130s, note that WVU is an impressive 13-0 SU the last 13 times that it played a home game with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range. That includes a 4-0 SU/ATS mark their last four in that situation. West Virginia's Kevin Jones, who leads the Big East with averages of 20.6 points and 11.2 rebounds had this to say about the team's motivation level: "You've got to beat good opponents. Luckily for us in the Big East we play a lot of ranked teams. That can be a bad thing, as well, but it's all about having a mindset where we have to go into games and be the hungriest team out there. We're not the most talented team in the Big East, so we have to be the hungriest team ... " Jones also had this to say: "You've got to win home games. It's tough (in the big East). Teams beat one another up so much you've got no choice but to fight through the wear-and-tear of it, but we've got another important game coming up in Louisville, and we've just got to move forward." I expect Jones and co. to indeed be the "hungrier" team as they bring their "A Game" leading to a much needed win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on UTAH. The Thunder are a very good team. In fact, they've got the best record in the entire Western Conference. That doesn't mean that there aren't good spots to play against them though. One just has to choose them wisely. I successfully played against the Thunder when they lost outright at Washington. I also successfully played against them last night. They lost outright at Sacramento. Tonight, the Thunder are playing at a far more difficult venue and playing in an extremely tough scheduling spot. I expect them to stumble once again. The Thunder are a team with young legs. However, they're still only 3-5 ATS when playing the second of back to back games. This is far worse than just a "normal" back to back spot though. The Thunder are also playing their fourth road game in the past five days. In fact, this is already their seventh game through the first 10 days of February. Not only were nearly all seven of those of the "hard-fought variety," they were also ALL in different cities. That's a lot of traveling and a lot of playing already this month. Thankfully, the Thunder get three nights off after tonight. After that, they get to face these same Jazz, at Oklahoma City. Armed with this knowledge, I won't be surprised if they have a bit of a letdown here. Of course, even if the Thunder bring their "A-Game" it doesn't guarantee a win here at Salt Lake City. The Jazz beat the Lakers by nine in their last game here. Prior to that, they lost by two vs. the Clippers, a team that they'd previously crushed here. That was preceded by a victory over a very solid Portland team. The Jazz, who have had the past two days off, are 11-4 here at home. That's a better record than the Thunder (11-5 on the road) boast away from OKC. While the Thunder are only outscoring opponents by 1.7 points per game (100.4 to 98.7) on the road, the Jazz are outscoring opponents by a 99 to 92.9 margin (6.1 ppg) here at Utah. Going back further finds the Jazz at an impressive 67-35 here the past few seasons. While the Thunder have had some trouble in back to back spots, the Jazz are 3-0 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. They're 16-7 SU and 13-8-2 ATS their last 21 in that situation. They had some trouble against the Thunder here last season. However, with the schedule solidly in their favor, I expect them to come away with the win and cover tonight. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Obviously, there's a class difference between these two teams. The Heat could win the title this year. The Wizards won't be making the playoffs. That said, I feel that this line is too high. Off a 102-89 loss to the Magic, many will probably expect the Heat to bounce back with a big win of their own here. They don't always respond that way though. In fact, they're only 12-16 SU (12-15-1 ATS) the past 28 times that they were off a double-digit loss. The Heat have had some big wins of late. Prior to the Orlando loss, they blew out Cleveland, Lebron's fomer team. That game was close much of the way though and before that, they beat Toronto by only six. Before that, they hammered Philadelphia. However, before that they'd lost at Milwaukee and six of seven games had been decided by 11 or less. With the loss at Orlando, the Heat are now just 3-8 ATS their last 11 games. The Wizards are off a disappointing 14 point loss against the Knicks. They won their previous game though. Only five of their last 14 games has resulted in a loss of greater than 10 points. While I've won by playing against them this month, I backed the Wizards when they hosted and defeated Oklahoma City last month. I bring up that game for two reasons. For starters, the fact that they beat the Thunder, one of the top teams in the league, should give the Wizards the confidence to know that they compete with any team, even the Heat. The other reason I noted the Thunder game was that I wanted to point out that the Wizards were only +10.5 point underdogs for that game. At the time, they were on an 0-4 ATS streak, just as they are now. The Thunder have the best record in the West and their 11-5 road record is superior to Miami's 7-5 (4-8 ATS) mark on the road. Meanwhile, the Bulls have the best record in the entire NBA and a 13-5 road record to boot. Yet, they were laying only -9 when they played here. Chicago won by 10. Yet, today the Heat, who are an ugly 4-9 ATS against teams with a losing record, are laying a larger number than either the Thunder or the Bulls were. I feel that's providing excellent value on the Wizards, who are still playing hard. I look for the Wizards to come ready to play and am grabbing all the points I can get. *10

Reason: I'm playing on Loyola Maryland. This is a very big game in the MAAC. Its an especially big game for the Greyhounds, who are arguably playing their best basketball since moving up to Division 1 in the 1981-82 season. Listed as small underdogs, I expect the Greyhounds to keep on rolling for another night. The Greyhounds have now held six straight opponents to less than 60 points, as the defense has been stifling. Last time out, they won 66-55. Before that, they won 63-46. Prior to that, it was a 70-52 victory. They're now an impressive 11-2 in conference play, by far their best ever start in conference action. On a six-game winning streak, the Greyhounds haven't lost since they faced these same Gaels, at Iona. That puts them in the "revenge" role here. Not that they should need any added motivation. (The last time that they played with revenge, the Greyhounds hammered Niagara by double-digits.) With their current winning streak, the Greyhounds are now an impressive 8-2 ATS when coming off a game in which they allowed 60 or fewer points. Of course, Iona is a also very good team and also comes in on a roll. Like the Greyhounds, the Gaels are 11-2 in conference play. They won 85-73 last time out. However, it should be noted that they're only 2-9 ATS in lined games, after scoring 80 or more points. Despite covering last time out, the Gaels are only 6-11 ATS in February the past 2+ seasons, going an awful 32-55 ATS in February lined games, over the long-term. Listed as +5 point underdogs, the Greyhounds won outright against the Gaels here last season, avenging a double-digit loss at Iona. They're playing much better now than they were then and I expect them to score the upset once again. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GONZAGA. Its been nearly a month ago since these teams last faced each other. I had a big play (*10 Roast) on that Gaels in that 1/12 game. They rewarded me with a convincing 83-62 victory. That was at St. Mary's though. With tonight's rematch being played at Gonzaga, I'm now backing the revenge-minded Bulldogs. Entering the game at St. Mary's, Gonzaga had won eight straight games and was on an impressive 6-1 ATS streak, including 4-0 ATS its last four. At the time, I felt that all those Gonzaga pointspread victories were helping to keep the line on St. Mary's quite low, providing us with excellent value. However, dating back to the loss at St. Mary's, the Bulldogs have gone a dismal 0-7 ATS (5-2 SU) their last seven games. Just as I thought the Bulldogs perfect 4-0 ATS streak was helping to provide us with value on St. Mary's last month, I now believe that they're less than "perfect" 0-7 ATS streak has shifted the value the other way. Indeed, many won't be willing to back the Bulldogs after they've dropped seven straight at the betting window. That's caused the line to be so low that a SU victory will likely also result in an ATS win. However, lets keep in mind that Gonzaga still did win five of those seven games and that the two SU losses both came on the road, at St. Mary's and at BYU. This is still a team which has won nine straight here in the Pacific Northwest, if including their "neutral court" game at the Key Arena in Seattle. Yes, the Bulldogs lost badly at St. Mary's. They've dominated the Gaels here over the years though and they're an outstanding 29-5 SU the last 34 (6-1 the L7) times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. I expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. I lost or "pushed" (depending on when and where one played) by going against the Thunder in their last game. The Thunder won by three at Golden State. The Thunder are laying a considerably larger number here though. Given the number of close games that both teams have been involved in recently, I feel that number is generously high. Yes, the Thunder are a very good team. They've been playing a lot of close games of late though. In fact, other than one double-digit loss, every one of their February games had been decided by single-digits, the last two by just three and four. They'll face a Sacramento team which has quietly been playing very well of late. In fact, the Kings are a perfect 6-0 ATS their last six games. They've won three of their last four games outright and the lone loss came by only two points. All six game Speaking of close games, the six meetings between the Kings and Thunder here at Sacramento (since Seattle moved to OKC) have been decided by only 23 combined points, none decided by more than eight. That's an average margin of less than four per game. The Kings have beaten the Lakers, Pacers and Blazers here. Last time out, they defeated the Warriors by eight, the same team that just took the Thunder down to the wire. While both teams had yesterday off, the Kings still arguably have a scheduling advantage. That's because the Thunder will still be playing their fifth game in seven days here, each of them in a different city. Additionally, while the Kings have tomorrow off, the Thunder have a divisional showdown vs. Utah on deck tomorrow. I won't be surprised if this one is also decided at the buzzer and am grabbing all the points I can get. *10 Main Event

Reason: I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. The Irish come in as the hotter team and they also have the better overall record in Conference play. I feel the Mountaineers are favored for good reason though. The Irish are 7-3 in Big East play while the Mountaineers are only 6-5. That makes this a very important game for West Virginia. These teams will face each other again on Feb 22nd, at Notre Dame. That makes this game even more critical for the Mountaineers, as they know winning that one will be tough. Likewise, the Irish know that winning here will not be easy. They haven't won here since January 2005, as the Mountaineers have beaten them three straight times here. Even though the Irish have earned some recent road wins, note that they're only 2-3 ATS (0-5 SU) the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. While the Irish are indeed the hotter team, the Mountaineers do have some badly needed momentum. That's because they knocked off Providence (in OT) last game. Off that 87-84 victory, note that the Mountaineers are an impressive 7-1 SU/ATS the last eight times that they scored 80 or more points in their previous game. Despite losing vs. Pittsburgh in their last game here, the Mountaineers have still been very tough at home. Prior to the loss vs. the Panthers, WVU was 7-0 at home since the beginning of December, beating the likes of Cincinnati, Rutgers, Georgetown, Villanova and Miami. Six of those seven victories came by at least seven points, too. I was on the Mountaineers when they hosted the Irish last February. Laying -4 points, WVU won by a score of 72-58. I expect the Mountaineers to be the more "hungry" team tonight and for that to lead to another win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Scheduling should always be considered. In this year's abbreviated NBA season, its arguably more important than ever. In tonight's case, the Warriors should have a significant scheduling advantage. The Warriors have had the past two day's off. That's a fairly rare luxury these days. Its also a situation which they've gone a profitable 16-10 ATS in, the past 2+ seasons. The Warriors have played with two or more day's rest three times so far in 2012. They beat Miami outright. They also beat Sacramento. The third game resulted in a 1-point loss vs. Memphis. In other words, they've been extremely competitive when their players have had fresh legs. Unlike their hosts, the Thunder were involved in a game last night. They're still a young team, so many might not worry too much about the back-to-back situation. However, this season has already been grueling for all teams, young and old. Also, this isn't just a "normal" back-to-back spot. That's because last night's game was an all out war at Portland, one of the toughest venues in the league. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss, the Thunder left it all out on the floor and ended up beating the Blazers in OT. It was an emotional (and controversial) win and figures to have been exhausting. Durant played 45 minutes. Westbrook and Harden played 41 and 42, respectively. Meanwhile, Perkins and Ibaka chipped in 36 and 38 minutes. That's A LOT of time for the starters to have been on the floor. As if last night's heavy minutes weren't bad enough, the Thunder will now also be playing their fourth game in the past five days. Its only the seventh day of February and the Thunder will already be playing in their fifth different city this month. Meanwhile, the Warriors will be playing just their third game of February and all three of them have been here in California. In fact, they haven't left the state of California since a 1/18 game at New Jersey. The Warriors have long been better here and they've been particularly tough at home recently. They've won two home games in a row and three of their last four here. The lone loss came against these same Thunder, which puts them in the "revenge" role here. The Thunder are indeed a good team. However, the Warriors have shown that they can beat good teams. They hammered a solid Utah team 119-101 last game here. Home wins against Portland and Miami were even more impressive. They beat the Thunder here last February and I look for them to score the upset tonight. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Scheduling should always be considered. In this year's abbreviated NBA season, its arguably more important than ever. In tonight's case, the Bucks should have a significant scheduling advantage. The Bucks have had the past two day's off. That's a fairly rare luxury in the NBA these days. The last time that they played with two day's off, they went into New York and destroyed the Knicks. Listed as +4.5 underdogs, they won that one by a score of 100-86. Unlike their hosts, the Suns were involved in a game last night. They're not a young team either. Nash, playing on his 38th birthday and with a banged-up shoulder, saw more than 30 minutes. Likewise for Hill and Gortat, who played 30 and 35. Frye and Dudley both played 28 minutes. Note that the Suns are just 19-23 ATS the last couple of seasons, when playing the second of back to back games. The last time that they played a road game, after having played the previous night, they lost outright at Toronto. Note that this is also much worse than a typical back to back spot. That's because the Suns will also be playing their fourth game in the past five nights. Its only the seventh day of February and the Suns will already be playing in their fifth different city this month. The Blucks were blown out last time out. That was against Chicago though and the were playing the second of back to back games. As noted, they're now well-rested. They've only played one road game this month and that was at Detroit. Even with the loss to the Bulls, the Bucks are still a solid 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS at home. That's much better than the Suns' 5-8 SU and 6-7 ATS mark on the road. That's no surprise though. The Bucks are now 59-36 at home the past couple of seasons while the Suns are only 48-55 on the road. The Bucks, who are playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Phoenix, are an impressive 27-18-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a double-digit loss. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion tonight. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NEW YORK. I won with the Jazz on Saturday, as they took care of LA by a score of 96-87. That was at Salt Lake City though. They're 2-5 on the road and they've lost six of their last seven visits to MSG. I expect them to stumble here again tonight. While not getting much respect yet, the Knicks are quietly starting to play better. They won by seven last game here and have now won two of three at home. The lone loss came by only three vs. Chicago, one of the best teams in the league. After struggling at the betting window to begin the season, the Knicks have gone 4-1-1 ATS their last six games. The Knicks also 6-0 ATS the last six times they were a host in this series. They scored 131 against the Jazz here last season, a 131-109 destruction. Both teams had yesterday off. The Knicks also have tomorrow off though while the Jazz play at Indiana. The Jazz are 0-2 SU and 0-1-1 ATS the last two times that they played the front end of b2b games. The last time they did so on the road, they lost by 15. Although they didn't get it done vs. Cleveland on 1/25, the Knicks are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were favored by four or fewer points, going a profitable 10-5 ATS in that situation. With this number having come down a bit from its opener, I expect the Knicks to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WASHINGTON. These teams just faced each other at Toronto on Friday. I won with the Raptors in that game. That game set up really well for the Raptors. Not only were the Raptors rested and playing at home, they were also off back-to-back blowout losses AND were looking to avenge a blowout loss suffered here at Washington. That combination of factors virtually ensured the Raptors would at least "play hard" and bring their best effort, which I felt would be more than enough, given the Wizards' poor play on the road. It was. Toronto played one of its best games all season and won by a score of 106-89. The shoe is on the other foot here though. This time, its the Wizards who are rested and playing at home. This time, its the Wizards who are off back to back blowout losses. This time, its also the Wizards who are playing with "revenge." As they did for the Raptors at Toronto, those factors should lead to the Wizards playing extremely hard here. As it did for the Raptors at Toronto, I expect that extra motivation and effort to result in a big win and cover for the Wizards here. While Washington had yesterday off, the Raptors were involved in a hard fought game against former teammate Chris Bosh and the Miami Heat. While they ultimately fell short, the Raptors really battled the Heat hard in that one. Give them credit for that. However, expect it to take a toll on them here. Remember, that the Raptors are still playing without their star (Bargnani) and his absence figures to hurt them even more in this back to back spot. Keep in mind that the last time that the Raptors played the second of b2b games, that they lost by 36 points. They shot 34% and their opponent shot 52%. Also, note that the Wizards have quietly gone 3-0 SU/ATS in 2012 when listed as favorites. They're now 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were laying points. The Wizards have beaten the Raptors three straight times here, including a 93-78 win on 1/10. Going back further finds them at 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS the last 15 series meetings here. Catching the short-handed Raptors off yesterday's hard-fought loss, I expect another win and cover for the Wizards here. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. *As you're probably aware, both teams are coming off very "close" victories. The Patriots squeaked past Baltimore, avoiding OT by a missed FG. Meanwhile, the Giants needed OT to beat San Francisco. As you're likely also aware, the Giants beat the Pats at Foxboro in the regular season AND they also beat them in the Super Bowl four years ago. Combine those factors with the fact that the Giants covered in the Conference Finals and the Pats did not AND we're getting a very low pointspread. Indeed, the Pats were laying double-digits when these teams faced each other in the previous Super Bowl. I feel that low number is providing us with excellent value on the "revenge-minded" Patriots. I won with the Packers in last year's Super Bowl, backing a team which I felt had an excellent QB and an elite coach. The previous year, I backed the Saints over the Colts in large part because I felt they'd have an edge in the coaching department. In this case, both quarterbacks and head coaches have been been here and won here before. While recent head-to-head meetings would suggest otherwise, I still believe the combination of Brady and Belichick is superior to the tandem of Coughlin and Manning. I also believe that both Brady and Belichick are the type of personalities that despise being "shown up." Everyone "expected" them to beat the Giants in the last Super Bow and they came up short. Then, these same Giants snapped their home winning streak. While every player and member of the coaching staff will (obviously) be extremely motivated to win, I expect both Brady and Belichick to "take it to another level," in an effort to "get the last laugh" against these pesky and hated Giants. It should be pointed out that the Pats are a stellar 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS the last few seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. We saw what they did to the Bills, after Buffalo had beaten them earlier in the season - they crushed them by a score of 49-21 in the "rematch." Going back further finds that the Pats at an outstanding 51-30-4 ATS (63%) the last 85 times that they were in the "revenge" role. While it wasn't a "revenge" situation, it should be noted that the Pats also destroyed Denver, when facing the Broncos for the second time. That kept the Pats perfect when facing a team for the second time this season, winning those four games by 87 combined points. While both teams had last week off, it should be noted that the Giants had to play an extra game to get here, while flying all over the country, plus had to fight desperately just to make the playoffs. I feel that works in the Pats favor. Keep in mind that the Pats just won by 35 points when getting an extra week off in between games. The last time that the Giants played with two week's rest in between games was way back in October. After their break, they barely beat a struggling Miami team, winning by three as -9.5 point home favorites. While even most Giants' fans will admit that the Pats possess the more potent offense, the knock against the Pats has been their defense. This group has played much better than people realize though. Allowing an average of only 15 ppg in the playoffs shows they've elevated their level of play on that side of the ball. One could make a convincing case for either team and there are plenty of stats supporting both sides. The legacies of both the QBs and coaches will be on the line. Ultimately, I expect Belichick and the Pats to have the better gameplan and look for Brady to outplay Manning, as the Pats have their revenge, getting the cash along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on FAIRFIELD. Siena has been the top team in this conference. The Saints are closer to the middle of the pack this year though. Even with some January wins, they're still below .500, checking in at 10-12 overall. They're off a deflating home loss to St. Peter's, a game they led by 20 points. The Stags check in off back to back wins and with a 12-10 record. A closer look shows Fairfield with a 6-3 home record and Siena with a 2-8 away mark. The Stags have won their last two home games by 36 combined points. The Stags have payback on their minds. They were favored for their game at Siena by lost 73-60. They were in the middle of a stretch where they lost five of six at the time and are now playing much better basketball. At 7-4 in the conference, they've got three teams ahead of them. They expected to challenge for the MAAC title this year and know they really could use a big win here. Note that the Stags won by 13 against the Saints here last season, laying -9. In addition to having the venue in their favor, the expected tempo figures to favor Fairfield. With an O/U line in the mid 120s, note that the Saints are a dismal 2-10 ATS (4-8 SU) the past few seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s. During that stretch, the Stags are 13-8 ATS (16-5 SU) when doing so. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BOSTON. These teams have similar records. The Celtics are 12-10. The Grizzlies are 12-11. The Celtics' 8-6 home record is considerably better than the Grizzlies 5-8 mark on the road though. With this game being played at Boston, I expect the Celts to have the advantage. In addition to having homecourt advantage, I really like how this one sets up for Boston. Both teams had yesterday off. The Grizzlies blew a big lead and are off a disappointing loss in their last game though, which can be deflating. Meanwhile, the Celtics are off a close win, which can provide momentum. They've now won six of seven. Additionally, the Grizzlies are playing the final game of a road trip here - and this is a very early game, which can be tough on the road team. More importantly, they've got a big game vs. the Spurs on deck tomorrow. Not only are the Spurs the top team in the Grizzlies' conference, its a rematch of last year's playoffs. So, that's a very big game for them and it would easy to get caught thinking ahead. On the other hand, the Celtics have been at home for the entire month of February. And, they have no game tomorrow. Additionally, when they do play on Tuesday - it'll be a home game against Charlotte, a non-divisional team which is currently the worst in the entire league. So, unlike Memphis, they have no reason to "look ahead" or to try and save themselves for tomorrow. The Celtics are already 4-1 SU/ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 170s, as these types of low-scoring games (or ones which are expected to be low-scoring) seem to be to their liking. With the schedule and homecourt in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. *10

Reason: I'm playing on UTAH. The Jazz have payback on their minds, as the Lakers have already beaten them twice this season. This should be the perfect spot to exact some revenge. While the Lakers played a hard-fought game in the high-altitude of Denver last night, the Jazz had the day off. The Jazz are dealing with some injuries but I expect the day off to have helped and look for them to come together for this important game. Note the LA is just 3-5 ATS when playing the second of back to back games. Yes, the Lakers are off back to back road wins. They're still only 3-7 SU/ATS on the road for the season though. They've been outscored by an average score of 97.5 to 91.6 on the road. On the other hand, the Jazz are 10-4 SU and 8-5-1 ATS at home. They've outscored opposing teams by a 99.2 to 93.3 margin here. LA is not in one of its better roles. The Lakers are 8-15 ATS (7-16 SU) the past few seasons as a road underdog of three or fewer points. The Jazz got hammered at Golden State last time out. That was a tough scheduling spot for them though. Now, as noted, they've had a day off. They're 26-17-1 ATS (28-16 SU) the past couple of seasons when off a double-digit loss. With an O/U line in the high 180s, note that the Lakers are a dismal 3-10 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range. During the same stretch, the Jazz are an impressive 8-2 SU/ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the same range. The Lakers head east for some games against some top teams from the Eastern Conference. Off last night's win and having already beaten the Jazz twice, they could easily get caught looking ahead here. Not so for the Jazz, who should be fully focused on the task at hand. Payback. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PURDUE. The Hoosiers come in with the higher ranking. However, this game being played at Purdue, I believe that the Boilermakers are favored for good reason. The Hoosiers are actually fortunate to even be ranked at all still. Yes, they did get off to a great 15-1 start. However, they're only 3-5 on the road for the season and they've now lost five of their last seven overall. The two wins came over fairly weak opponents too, as they were facing Penn State and Iowa. Winning a road game against a determined Purdue team figures to be far more difficult. Of course, Indiana coach Tom Crean knows that fact all too well. The Hoosiers are 0-5 against Purdue under his watch. They've lost those games by an average of more than 12 points, too. Both last season's meetings resulted in double-digit victories for the Boilermakers. Of course, winning on the road in conference play is always difficult for Crean's crew, regardless of venue. Indeed, the Hoosiers are a horrendous 2-31 on the road in Big Ten play under Crean. Both wins came at Penn State, too. Not surprisingly, the Hoosiers are an ugly 9-19 ATS the last 28 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, including 0-3 ATS their last three in that role. While Indiana is off a double-digit blowout loss vs. Michigan, Purdue is off a momentum-building win at Northwestern. While Indiana is 1-4 SU/ATS the last five times that it played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range, the Boilermakers are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the last four times that they played a home game with an O/U line in that range. Indiana falls from the rankings and Purdue continues its domination of Crean. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CONNECTICUT. The Huskies are off four straight losses, going 0-4 ATS. That's kept this line a little lower than it easily could have been. Given that I expect them to bounce back with a big win, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Like UConn, Seton Hall is also really struggling. In fact, the Pirates have lost five straight. They've dropped three in a row on the road and are 1-4 (2-3 ATS) on the road since Christmas. While both teams surely badly want to bounce back with a victory, the Huskies play with the added incentive of "revenge," as the Pirates hammered them at Seton Hall recently. Games at Connecticut have been a different story though, as the Huskies have dominated the Pirates here. In fact, prior to last month's loss, UConn had won 11 straight in the series. The Huskies managed only 44 points scored in Wednesday's loss to Georgetown. That was their second lowest total in Big East play in the entire Jim Calhoun era. Needless to say, they'll be fired up to bounce back with a much better offensive performance. Facing a Pirates team that allows more than 66 (66.7) points per game on the road should help. The Pirates are 3-9 SU the last dozen times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 120s. Conversely, the Huskies are 10-2 the last 12 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 120s. I expect them to improve on those stats, covering the relatively small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on LOYOLA CHICAGO. The Vikings are at the top of the conference. The Ramblers are at the bottom. That's reflected in the pointspread, as Cleveland State is laying double-digits. With all due respect to the Vikings, who are indeed a very good team, I believe that's asking too much of them. The Ramblers have payback on their minds as they were embarrassed 69-48 at Cleveland State. Note that they were +14 for that game. They're not quite as big an underdog here. However, they're still getting double-digits. Given how the Ramblers played last game here and given how the Vikings have fared on the road of late, I feel that's providing excellent value. Cleveland State did win big at Youngstown State last time on the road. However, prior to that, the Vikings had lost two of four on the road and the two wins both came by single-digits. In fact, going back to December 1st, the Viking have only won one road game (out of eight tries) by more than eight points. Given that the Vikings won by only four points at Robert Morris (a game that didn't even have a line) a blowout win on the road is never a guarantee for them, regardless of the opponent. In their last game here, the Ramblers lost by only six vs. Butler. They've quietly gone 3-0 ATS their last three games overall. They're also a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range. A win against the top team in the conference would really make their season and I look for the Ramblers to go all out to get it. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. Its true that the Nets are a little short-handed right now. However, that hasn't stopped them from playing well. Having had last night off, they got a bit of rest, which should serve them well. Getting a handful of points at home, with a line which has climbed from its opener, I believe they're providing us with excellent value. The T-Wolves are an exciting young team and they're clearly improved from recent seasons. They've also played well on the road. That said, I don't feel they're ready to be laying this many points in a game away from Minnesota. Even with a couple of recent wins, note that they've still only won five of their last 20 road games. Also, note the the T-Wolves are just 3-6 ATS on the season when laying points. That includes a 0-4 ATS mark their last four as favorites. While the T-Wolves lost by 10 last time out, the Nets are off a victory. In fact, they've won three of their last five, including a win at Philadelphia. After a slow start here, they've now also won three of their last five here at home. Going back a bit further finds New Jersey at a profitable 8-6 ATS its last 14 overall. The Nets do have a divisional game against the Knicks tomorrow. However, that's also the case for the T-Wolves as they'll face Houston (for the third time) tomorrow. The Nets have won five of the last six home meetings with the T-Wolves and the lone loss came by only four points. Five of those six games were decided by eight or fewer points and four of them were decided by four or less. Last year's meeting here saw the Nets win by a score of 107-105. This one could easily again come down to the wire and I'm grabbing all those generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BUTLER. I'm well aware that this year's Bulldogs haven't dominated the Horizon the way that we've grown accustomed to. Having recently successfully played against them, I'm also well aware that they've lost three straight and that they've got an awful ATS record this season. That said, I still have a lot of respect this team. The recent losses and the poor overall pointspread record have helped to keep this line reasonably low and I expect the Bulldogs to bounce back with a win and cover. Yes, the Bulldogs have dropped three straight. However, a closer look shows that all three of those losses came on the road. This will be their first home game since mid-January. Their most recent home game came back on 1/15. The Bulldogs, laying a similar number to what they are this evening, won by a score of 71-55. Including that result, Butler is 5-2-1 ATS (8-0 SU) the last eight times it was listed as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. During the same stretch, Wright State is only 1-5-1 ATS (0-7 SU) as a road underdog in the +6.5 to +9 range. While the offense has admittedly struggled, the Butler defense remains outstanding. The Bulldogs are allowing less than 60 points per game at home and tonight they'll be facing a Wright State team that is averaging a mere 52.9 points per game on the road. I won't be surprised if the Raiders manage less than 50 here. The Bulldogs won but didn't cover at Wright State. Including that victory, they're 9-1 the last 10 meetings in the series. That includes a 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS mark the last three meetings here at Butler. While the Raiders would surely love to avenge the earlier loss, note that they're 2-4 ATS (0-6 SU) the last six times that they attempted to avenge a home defeat. I successfully played against the Raiders in their last road game. Listed as +11 underdogs at Detroit, they lost by a score of 69-53. They're now 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road in 2012 and that includes a 58-38 setback at Wisconsin-Milwaukee. I expect them to have trouble scoring once again and for the determined Bulldogs to pull away for a double-digit victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on UNLV. Many might be quick to grab the big points here. After all, the Rams just beat highly ranked San Diego State on the weekend, a team which UNLV lost against. I won't be one of them though, as I'm expecting the favored Rebels to run all over the visiting Rams here. Yes, the Rams deserve credit for beating the Aztecs. That didn't surprise me though, as I had a big play on Colorado State in that game. Not only did I feel that the Aztecs were over-rated but I also felt they were ripe for a letdown. Keep in mind that the Rams got to face them at Colorado State. On the other hand, UNLV had to face the Aztecs at San Diego. Tonight's game, of course, is at the Thomas & Mack Center. Big Difference. The Rebels have been dominant at home, going 12-0 here. They beat a good New Mexico team by 15 in their last game here and beat TCU by 23 in their previous home game. In fact, Nevada is the only team to hang within single digits of the Rebels here and that game was played way back in early November. Overall, UNLV is outscoring opponents by a 87 to 63.4 margin at home. The Rebels shoot better than 50% (51.7%) here while opposing teams make less than 40% (39.6%) of theirs. While the Rebels are 7-3 ATS in home lined games, the Rams are only 3-4 ATS in road lined games. Scoring only 66 ppg away from home, they're likely going to have trouble keeping up here. In their last two road games, the Rams managed only 103 combined points. They lost those two games by scores of 85-52 and 70-51. The Rebels haven't forgotten that the Rams beat them here last season. Now, its payback time. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE. I successfully played on the Penguins when these teams faced each other on 1/20. Listed as small underdogs, the Penguins rewarded me with an 68-66 "upset" victory. That was at Youngstown State though. With tonight's rematch being played at Wisconsin-Milwaukee, I expect a vastly different result. While I played against them at Youngstown State, I did recently play on the Panthers when they defeated Butler. Including that 53-42 victory on 1/26, the Panthers are a profitable 15-7 ATS the last 22 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss, including a perfect 3-0 ATS their last three in that situation. The Penguins are not in one of their better roles as they are just 8-16-1 ATS (2-23 SU) the last 25 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. They've played two road games in 2012 and each resulted in a double-digit loss. They lost by 14 at Valparaiso and by 16 at Butler. The Panthers have dominated the Penguins here at Wisconsin Milwaukee and haven't lost to them here since December 2006. Most recently, laying -7, they won by nine. They're laying a little larger number here but I expect an even more convincing victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. The Tigers are good. However, they're not unbeatable and they currently aren't playing their best. Last time out, laying -24.5, they won by "only" 13. They were facing the worst team in the conference (Texas Tech) but the offense struggled. Prior to that, in their most recent road game, they lost outright vs. Oklahoma State. I successfully played against the Tigers in that one and I'm going against them here. The Longhorns fought hard at Baylor last time out, losing outright but covering the spread. Wins have been tough to come by for them on the road of late but they've continued to play well at home. They're 1-7 away from home but 12-1 when listed as the home team. The loss at Baylor, combined with the fact that they already lost at Missouri, should give the Longhorns plenty of motivation here. Obviously, a victory against the ranked Tigers would really help their resume. These teams faced each other here almost exactly one year ago to the day. The Longhorns were laying -7.5 for that 1/29/2011 meeting and they won by 13. That brought them to 5-1 the last six times that they were a host in the series. Behind another big game from their scoring leader J'Covan Brown, who lit up the Tigers in the last meeting, I expect the revenge-minded Longhorns to continue their homecourt dominance in the series, scoring the minor "upset." *10 (Best Bet)

Reason: I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Tough spot for the Bulls, as they're off a hard-fought emotional loss at Miami yesterday. While the Heat are the top team in the Southeast, the Bulls have the top team in the Atlantic (Philly) on deck. That being the case, it may be easy to get caught looking past lowly Washington. Note that the Bulls won by six when hosting Charlotte, the last time that they played the second of back to back games. The Wizards are starting to play better basketball and have won two of three since the coaching change.They had yesterday off after a road win on Saturday. They won their last home game, too. A look at their last six home games shows that they only won two of those games. However, ALL four losses came by eight or fewer points - and those four games were fairly against good teams. They lost by six vs. Boston. They lost by four vs. Denver. They lost by eight vs. Houston while crushing Charlotte. Most impressive, they also beat Oklahoma City. After Saturday's win, John Wall had this to say of the Wizards: "We had good balance. I think nobody cared about who scored. We just went out there and played basketball. That

Reason: I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. The Panthers are off back to back wins. However, those both came at home. Before that, they'd lost eight straight. They're lost all four road games since Christmas. In fairness, they played at home pretty tough venues. Unfortunately, for Pittsburgh fans, this is an other difficult place to play and they'll be contending with a well-coached Mountaineers team which figures to be in a foul mood. The Mountaineers very nearly pulled off an upset at Syracuse on Saturday, losing by only two. They know they can't afford to hang their heads from that loss though, as they'd also lost their previous game, which also came on the road. They're back on the road after this game and they know that they play at Pittsburgh on 2/16. In other words, they know they need to take care of business here at home, where they haven't lost since mid-November. They're 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) in home lined games. Six of those seven victories came by double-digits. Note that the Mountaineers are also 5-0 ATS when coming off a loss. They were swept by a better Pittsburgh team last season. They haven't forgotten. Now, its payback time. *10 (Personal Favorite)

Reason: I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. Both these teams lost last time out. The Bears fell by only two points at Washington State, seeing their 4-game winning streak come to an end. The Cardinal, on the other hand, lost by double-digits for the second straight game. Naturally, both teams will really want to win this one. Playing at home, I expect the Bears to be the team which bounces back. Cal checks in with a perfect 13-0 home record. In their last game on this floor, the Bears won by a score of 81-45. They're outscoring teams by a commanding 73.8 to 52.5 margin here. The Cardinal have dropped three of four on the road in 2012. The lone win came by two points in quadruple OT, at Oregon State. All three losses came by double-digits. The Bears haven't lost two in a row all season. They've responded very well to each of their previous setbacks. Indeed, losing has really seemed to have them "seeing red" in their next game. After losing vs. Missouri, laying -14, the Bears bounced back with a 21-point win and cover vs. Denver. After losing by a single point at San Diego State, laying -19.5, the Bears bounced back with a 45 point blowout of San Jose State. After a loss at UNLV, the Bears bounced back to defeat USC. (They didn't cover that one.) Then, most recently, after a loss at Oregon State, they responded with a 17 win at Oregon, easily covering as -3 point favorites. So, that's 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS off a loss so far this season. With the blowout win at Oregon, the Bears are now 11-5 ATS the past few seasons, when off a conference loss. (The Cardinal are 11-13 ATS off a conference loss, during the same period.) The Bears have been excellent as favorites against this season. In fact, they're now 34-18 ATS the last 52 times that they were laying points. That includes a 4-2 ATS mark as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. During that stretch, the Cardinal are 2-5 ATS as road underdogs in the in +6.5 to +9 range. Both 2011 meetings in this series saw the home team win decisively. The game here saw the Bears win by a score of 74-55. I expect another double-digit victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BYU. The Gaels come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Cougars are favored for good reason. BYU checks in with an 11-2 home record, outscoring opponents by a commanding 84.9 to 65.5 margin here. While they've since responded with back to back road wins, the Cougars actually lost their last game here. I expect that to have them in a nasty mood here. Prior to that, they'd only had three losses since mid-November. Those losses came vs. Baylor on a neutral court vs. Wisconsin and at St. Mary's, vs. these same Gaels. That puts the Cougars in the revenge role here and should give them some added motivation. BYU is 51-30 SU over the years, when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. The Gaels have been unbeatable at home but that's not the case on the road. In addition to a double-digit neutral court loss vs. Baylor, they lost by double-digits at Denver. They're only 2-5 ATS their last seven games overall and they're just 9-15 -1 ATS the past few seasons, when facing a team with a winning record after at least 15 games have been played. Off a momentum-building win at V-Tech, one which saw the Cougars hit the go-ahead 3-pointer in the final 30 seconds, BYU coach David Rose commented: "The game should give us a lot of confidence in our ability to be able to rely on each other and trust each other ... " Prior to the three point loss vs. Baylor, the Cougars were 3-0 SU/ATS the previous three times that they were listed as home favorites of four or fewer points. Playing with 'revenge,' I expect the Cougars to carry the positive momentum from the V-Tech win into tonight's game and look for them to deliver a solid win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on COLORADO STATE. Seeing such a short number, many are likely to jump all over the road favorites in this one. After all, the Aztecs are on an extended undefeated streak while the Rams are off back to back blowout losses. I believe that the line is low for good reason though. Yes, the Rams have dropped two straight. Those were both on the road though, each at difficult venues. Prior to those losses, the Rams had won eight straight. Note that this is the third time that the Rams have lost two in a row this season, as each of their losses have come in pairs. In each previous case, they stopped the losing streak right there, responding to the b2b losses by delivering a double-digit victory in their next game. Having faced non-conference opponents like Stanford, Northern Iowa and Duke, I don't expect the Rams to be intimidated here. While the Aztecs have proven to be better than most expected, I still don't personally believe they are quite as good as their #13 ranking suggests. While the Rams haven't had many recent wins against ranked opponents, to put it nicely, they did very nearly beat the Aztecs here last season. San Diego State was ranked #7 at the time but didn't hit the game-winning shot until there was less than two seconds remaining, a 56-54 victory. The Rams are arguably a better team this year while the Aztecs lost a lot from last year's team. In a game that could easily come down to the wire again, I'll grab the points. However, I expect the Rams to rise to the occasion with the outright win. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ALABAMA. Having dropped four straight, the Crimson Tide desperately need a victory. I feel that the Razorbacks will provide them with the perfect opportunity to get one. Some may recall that I successfully played against Arkansas the last time it played on the road. The Razorbacks lost that one by 23. That dropped them to 0-4 SU/ATS on the road, 0-5 SU/ATS if including a 87-78 "neutral court" loss vs. Houston, a game in which they were laying -9 points. Going back a bit further finds the Razorbacks at a horrible 6-16 ATS (4-18 SU) their last 22 road lined games. Yes, the Tide have lost four straight. However, in all fairness to Alabama, three of those four losses came on the road. The lone home loss came against a Vanderbilt team which is considerably stronger than the Arkansas squad they'll face here. Unlike the Razorbacks who have yet to prove they can win on the road, the Commodores are 6-1 away from home, including a double-digit win at Marquette. (The lone loss came by two at Louisville.) So, that is a team that clearly knows how to get it done on the road. Even with the close road loss last time out, the Tide remain an excellent 15-8 ATS over the past several years, when having lost their previous three games. Prior to the 4-game skid, the Tide had won five straight. They're still 7-2 SU at home. They've also got neutral court wins over the likes of Maryland, Wichita State, Purdue and Oklahoma State. They beat those four opponents by an average of 14 points, too. All four victories came by at least nine. So, they've shown an ability to beat half decent teams by double-digits. The Tide have dominated the Razorbacks here, going 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS the last 14 meetings here. Last year, laying -10.5, they won 69-56. Including that victory, the Tide are 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Desperate for a big win, I expect an even wider margin here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I won with the Warriors in their last game. They knocked off a good Portland team. They're up against another tough opponent here, as the Thunder are among the best in the West. I expect the Warriors to be up for the challenge though. Yes, the Thunder are a good team which is off to a strong start. They've only been mediocre at the betting window though and they're in one of their worst roles here. Indeed, the Thunder are an ugly 5-11 ATS the last 16 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Even before the victory over the Blazers, the Warriors had been very competitive against quality teams here. In addition to victories over the likes of Chicago and New York, the Warriors lost by one in games vs. Memphis and Utah and by three vs. Indiana. Speaking of close games, these teams have played some thrillers against each other. The Warriors won by six when they hosted the Thunder last season. They lost by only one in the game at Oklahoma City too, a 115-114 loss. So, they played the Thunder very tough last year, easily going 2-0 ATS. In fact, the Warriors are a perfect 4-0 ATS against the Thunder the past two seasons and ALL four of those games were decided by six or fewer points. The Warriors have won three of the last four home meetings with the Thunder. They're playing much better defense this season and they've also got the scorers to go "toe-to-toe" with the Thunder. I expect another close game and won't be at all surprised when the Warriors score the outright win. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DETROIT. At first glance, this line may look rather high. However, given the class difference between these teams, I feel it could easily be even higher. While they're currently only in the middle of the pack, I feel that Detroit is among the stronger teams in the Horizon. Off back-to-back double-digit victories and now 4-1 (3-2 ATS) their last five games, the Titans are finally starting to play like it. They came a point short of covering the number last time out. However, it was still a convincing 67-52 victory. They were laying -16 for that one. Now, due in part to the fact they didn't cover there, they're laying a little less - against an equally bad team, one they should match up very well against. After a slow start, the Titans know they've got some ground to make up and they're more than capable of taking care of the teams below them. Regulars will recall we won with the Titans just last week against Wright State. Laying -11.5, Detroit won by 16. The Titans remain perfect at home in 2012 and that includes a double-digit win over Butler. The Flames were competitive on the road last time out, losing by "only" six. That was at Wright State though and we saw what Detroit just did to that same time. They're just 1-6 SU since New Year's Eve and the lone win came at home against Loyola-Illinois. Prior to losing by six at Wright State, the Flames' previous road game resulted in a 21 point loss at Youngstown State. Detroit is a much tougher venue. Some may recall we successfully played against these same Flames earlier when they lost by 42 (as a +18.5 point dog) at Oregon State. So, this team is certainly capable of being "blown out." In addition to trying to catch up to the leaders in the Horizon, the Titans have some added motivation as they were upset by the Flames (at Illinois-Chicago) on 12/29. That game came down to the wire, the Flames winning 63-59. The Titans have long dominated the Flames here. Laying -10, they won by 14 last season. That brought them to 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS the last eight times that they were a host in this series. Its payback time tonight. *10

Reason: I'm playing on VIRGINIA. Playing their first game without 7-foot senior Assane Sene, the Cavaliers stumbled against rival V-Tech last time out. It appears that they're going to be without Sene for some time, so the Cavs know they have to show they can win without him. I expect them to be highly motivated to prove that this team is more than just about Sene. Hosting Boston College should make things easier. Note that the last time the Cavs were off a loss, they responded with a 70-38 victory. They're 2-0 SU/ATS off a loss on the season, covering the spread with ease each time. The Eagles lost by 14 at NC State two games ago. The Wolfpack are pretty good and that was on the road, so there's no real "shame" in that. However, they followed it up with a 71-56 home loss against a mediocre Wake Forest team last time out. That brings them to 2-5 their last seven and 7-12 overall. Keep in mind that this is a team which lost by 22 at Holy Cross earlier in the season. Virginia has all sorts of statistical advantages. The Cavs rank second in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 50.2 points per game. Additionally, Virginia ranks among the nation's top 20 in rebounding margin, an impressive plus-7.1. On the other hand, Boston College ranks among the 15 worst, at minus-6.3. The Cavs are an outstanding 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven times that they scored 60 or fewer points in their previous game. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ORLANDO. These teams just faced each other on Monday, at Boston. Despite missing several players, including Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo, the Celtics hammered the Magic by a score of 87-56. Obviously, the Magic weren't too happy about that embarrassing loss. With tonight's rematch being played at Orlando, I expect a vastly different result. Even with a couple of recent wins, the Celtics are still only 7-9 on the season. That includes a 2-4 mark on the road. It appears likely that they'll have Rondo back here but are still expected to be without Allen. It should be mentioned that the Celtics are a terrible 19-47 ATS the last 66 times that they were off a double-digit victory. The Magic bounced back from the loss at Boston by crushing the Pacers (at Indiana) the next night. They're now 12-5 on the season and that includes a 6-2 mark here at home. Note that they were underdogs for the game at Indiana and that they're 7-2 SU the last nine times that they were off an "upset" victory. While they've now lost four straight at Boston, the Magic are 13-6 SU the last 19 times that they hosted the Celtics. That includes a 2-0 SU/ATS mark the last two games here. They won those two games by an average of 14.5 points. With payback on their minds, I expect another double-digit victory tonight. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WISCONSIN MILWAUKEE. I successfully played against the Panthers when they lost at Youngstown State recently. At the time, the Panthers were riding high on a 3-game winning streak. I knew they had a big game at Cleveland State on deck though and I didn't think they were ready to be laying points on the road. They ended up losing that game by two points (although they did make a spirited comeback attempt) and then proceeded to get thumped at Cleveland State. They're back home now though, where they've been MUCH better and the beatdown at Cleveland State should have them in a foul mood. I expect them to take it out on a Butler team that isn't quite as good as the dominant teams of recent seasons. The Panthers beat Detroit by 10 in their last game here. That brought them to 9-1 at home. Their lone loss here came against Wisconsin and they only lost that one by six, as a +10.5 point underdog. In addition to their outstanding home record, the Panthers have played some good teams tough on the road. They lost by four at Northern Iowa and lost by seven at Michigan State. They also lost by just four when they played at Butler on 12/31, a 54-50 loss. Seeing as they are so much better here, playing the Bulldogs tough at Butler should give the Panthers confidence that they can beat them now that they're playing at home. Note that they've been excellent in the "revenge role" going 14-7 ATS the last 21 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. The Bulldogs are playing their third straight road game here. They failed to cover last time out and are now just 4-12-2 ATS on the season, 2-6-1 ATS in road lined games. Counting the earlier meeting with the Panthers as a push, they're also only 2-7-2 ATS against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. This is a huge game for the Panthers and with it being "Military Appreciation Night" (All members of the military, past and present, and their families get in for just $5) they should have plenty of support. The Panthers are 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. I expect them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. The Tigers are a strong team and they've been playing well lately. However, off their big road win at Baylor and with their highest ranking in a decade, I believe they may well be ripe for a letdown here. I also feel that they've started to become over-valued at the betting window. Yes, winning at Baylor was impressive. However, that victory did only come by a single point. The Tigers' previous road game (at Iowa St) resulted in a 7-point win. Before that, they lost by 16 at Kansas State. Before that, they won by seven at Old Dominion and by four in a neutral court game vs. Illinois. In other words, they've shown a recent tendency to play close games, when playing away from home. True, the Cowboys have seen better days. They come into this game off three consecutive losses. However, in fairness to them, two of those games came on the road. This is still a team that's 7-2 at home - and both home losses came by eight points or less. Note that the Cowboys are 10-6 SU/ATS the last 16 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. The Cowboys are still 18-10-1 ATS (24-5 SU) their last 29 home lined games, going 37-5 at home overall during that stretch. They beat Missouri by six here last season. Desperate for a victory, I look for them to give the Tigers a much tougher game than many will be expecting *10

Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. Off three straight losses, things haven't been so good for the Longhorns recently. However, a closer look reveals that two of those games were on the road, both at very difficult (Missouri and K-State) venues. The third was against Kansas. They actually went 2-1 ATS in those three games, losing the last two by only three and four points. In other words, they have been playing fairly well, despite coming up short. They're taking a step-down in class here and I expect them to take out their frustrations on the Cyclones. While not in the same class as a Kansas or Missouri, Iowa State is a fairly solid team. The Longhorns already found that out. The Cyclones beat them 77-71 on 1/4, in their first game of the new year. That result should work in the Longhorns' favor here though. Already anxious to snap their losing streak, they'll be extra motivated to serve up some "payback" here. With a road game at Baylor on deck, followed by a rematch with Missouri, the Longhorns can ill afford not to take care of business here. Including a 12 point win over Temple, the Longhorns are 25-12-1 ATS (31-7 SU) the past 38 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. During the same stretch, the Cyclones were 11-15 ATS (6-20 SU) as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range, going 0-3 SU/ATS their last three in that role. Texas has dominated the Cyclones here and won last season's meeting here b a score of 76-53. I expect the Longhorns to bounce back with another double-digit victory here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Grizzlies are on an extended winning streak, proving that they can win without Randolph. However, those games came primarily at home - and the two road victories came at Detroit and New Orleans. Those teams are both at the bottom of their respective divisions and have a combined record of just 7-26, entering Monday's action. The Grizzlies only other previous road win came at Minnesota and the T-Wolves are another sub-500 team which is currently last in its division. They were 0-4 SU/ATS in their other four road games. Each of those losses came by a minimum of eight points and they came by an average of 17.5 points! Granted, the Warriors aren't an "elite" team either. However, they have beaten the likes of Miami AND Chicago here and I feel that they're fully capable of another victory tonight. Both teams had yesterday off. However, the Warriors are better rested, as they also had Saturday off; the Grizzlies played Saturday. With this year's schedule being so jam-packed, having two day's off is a nice luxury. Note that the Warriors are a profitable 16-9 ATS the last 25 times that they played the second of back-to-back games. It should also be noted that the Warriors have Tuesday off, while the Grizzlies will be playing a big game at Portland. While they've lost five straight at Memphis, the Warriors are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they hosted the Grizzlies. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GEORGIA STATE. At first glance, this line may seem a little high. However, given the venue and talent gap between these teams, I feel it could easily be higher. The Panthers are off back to back losses. That's the first time that's happened since their first three games of the season though. So, they figure to be in a foul mood here. Note that they were underdogs for those first three losses, one coming on the road (at Washington) and the other two at "neutral" sites. Off those losses, when the Panthers came home, they responded with a 19-point victory. Looking at the two recent losses (each by only 3 points) and we find that both of those also came on the road. The Panthers are back home now though, which of course is significant. In their last home game, the Panthers won by 15. In fact, a closer look shows that the Panthers have won ALL eight of their home games by a minimum of 14 points. They won those games by 19, 22, 26, 32, 32, 20, 14, 14 and 15 points. For the season, the Panthers are outscoring teams by an average margin of 70.9 to 49.3 when listed as the home team. Not surprisingly, they're an impressive 6-1 ATS (7-0 SU) in their home lined games. While the Panthers have dominated at home, the Dukes have shown that they can be dominated. They did actually win their most recent road game, an upset at UNC-Wilmington. (That was promptly followed up by a 2-point home loss to Hofstra.) However, their previous road game resulted in a 20-point loss. They've been beaten by at least a dozen points four times already, dating back to the start of December. Overall, the Dukes are a dismal 1-8 ATS their last nine lined games. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS when laying points and they're a perfect 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANA. Wrong place at the wrong time for Penn State. The Hoosiers are in a nasty mood after dropping three straight. After this game, three of the Hoosiers' next four come on the road at tough venues, Wisconsin, Michigan and Purdue. In other words, they know they can't afford to stumble again here. They should also be looking to take out their frustrations on a mediocre opponent to build some positive momentum for the upcoming tougher games. Keep in mind that only one of the Hoosiers' recent three losses came at home. That was the only home game they lost all season and they're still outscoring opponents by a commanding 82.5 to 60.7 margin here. They're hitting better than 50% of their shots here while visiting teams are making less than 40% of theirs. These teams met at Penn State recently. Laying -6, the Hoosiers won by six. Sure, the Nittany Lions would love to avenge that loss. Considering that they're just 17-65 SU the last 82 times (3-11 L14) that they attempted to avenge a home loss, wanting and doing are often two entirely different matters. Calling the recent meeting between these teams a 'push,' the Nittany Lions are only 3-6-2 ATS as underdogs. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are 6-3-1 ATS as favorites. That record includes a 3-0 ATS mark as home favorites of greater than a dozen points. I feel the Hoosiers are the superior team and I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10