Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* BEST BET. These teams have met twice so far this season. Boston won both meetings. However, both were decided by seven points or less. In fact, the last four meetings were all decided by single-digits. Speaking of close games, the last three Celtic games overall have been decided by eight or fewer points. The Pacers have won three of their last five, only one of those five games coming by more than six. Off their win against the Jazz, Jeff Teague said this of the Pacers' effort: "We played well tonight, we played hard, we were a group out there. Defensively, I think we did a really great job." Look for a highly motivated effort from the revenge-minded Pacers as they take this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the upset.

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* PERS FAV. Enough is enough. The Bulls have dominated the Raptors for years. The Raptors are the better team right now though and are determined to make things right by finally beating their nemesis. Dwayne Casey said this of beating Chicago: "It should be high on our radar." With the Raptors off a big weekend and back-to-back double-digit wins, now should be the ideal time. They're 12-7 ATS after scoring 115 or more and 14-6 ATS off a double-digit win. While the Raptors are 23-12 at home, the Bulls are 13-22 on the road. With the Bulls also at 2-6 SU/ATS after allowing 90 or fewer points in their previous game, I say its "payback time" on Tuesday. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO 10* PERS FAV. Admittedly, the 76ers have been playing well recently. However, in this case, I believe that the Magic are favored for good reason. While the 76ers are off a win against Boston yesterday and now playing their third game in the past four days, the Magic are well-rested. Since closing their road trip with a win over the Suns, the Magic have had the past  couple of days off. They're healthier than their guests and they should be motivated to reward the home fans with a victory. Note that the Magic are 15-9 ATS the last 24 times that they played their previous three games on the road. When the Magic do win, they tend to win by a fairly comfortable margin. They've won five games since the 76ers beat them by a point here back in early February. All five of those victories came by a minimum of six points. Look for them to have the fresher legs tonight and for that to ultimately make the difference.

I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA 10* 2nd Rnd GAME OF YEAR. The Gamecocks aren't getting much respect here. However, their second half performance against Marquette was extremely impressive and gives them a ton of positive momentum. If you missed it, South Carolina was losing at halftime of that game. However, the Gamecocks delievered a dominant 54-33 second half performance. 

Marquette head coach Steve Wojciechowski had this to say of the Gamecocks: "I thought over the course of the game their physicality wore us down."

Allowing only 64.7 ppg, the Gamecocks are one of the better defensive teams in the country. When you combine hot shooting with that excellent defense, they're a much stronger team than many probably realize. Note that they were 7-1 SU this season, after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. That includes a 4-0 SU record in 2017. 

In case, you haven't heard, the Gamecocks are getting to play these games in their own state, roughly 100 miles from their own campus. Essentially, that makes this very much like a home game for them. They'll absolutely have the crowd behind them. If that seems unusual, its because it is. The reason? The NCAA pulled its first-weekend games from Greensboro,  due to the state of North Carolina's controversial HB2 (House Bill 2) otherwise known as "The Public Facilities Privacy & Security Act." In fact, if not for HB2, or if had been rejected or repealed, Duke would be the team which would be getting to play in its home state. 

Instead, we've got a team which plays outstanding defense, coming in with positive momentum off its 55-point second half and playing in front of a supportive crowd. 

While they had some trouble outside their state at times, the Gamecocks lost only three games in the state of South Carolina this season AND none of those losses came by more than seven points. Expect them to give the Blue Devils all they can handle. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* PERS FAV. These schools faced each other in November of last season. The Spartans (+4.5) scored the upset in that one. I believe the gap between the teams is significantly wider for Sunday's "rematch" though. While the Spartans have talent and are obviously well-coached, they're also young. Currently, in my opinion, this is not one of Izzo's stronger MSU teams. On the other hand, a recent loss to TCU notwithstanding, this is a very strong Kansas team. 

Off a 100-62 destruction of Cal-Davis, the Jayhawks were arguably as impressive as any team in the tournament in the opening round. While the Spartans also looked good in beating Miami, they've still lost three of their last five games. In fact, they've lost nine times since early January. Those losses came within the Big Ten. However, when matched up against elite non-conference competition, the Spartans also often struggled. They lost by 21 against Kentucky, by 15 against Baylor and by nine against Duke. Speaking of Kentucky, Baylor and Duke, Kansas beat all three of those teams. They even beat Baylor twice. 

The Spartans are 0-3 ATS their last three as neutral court underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. Izzo may have gotten the better of Self in four of six meetings since Self came to Kansas, but Self has the superior side this time. The Jayhawks are 19-1 SU the last 20 times that they scored 80 or more points. Expect them to improve on those stats, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. The Pistons are healthier and they should be hungrier. The Pistons' current 3-game losing streak has seen them fall out of the top eight spots in the East. They desperately need to stop the bleeding here. While the Suns are also off three straight losses, unlike the Pistons, they're currently playing out the string. Note that the Suns are without Bledsoe, Knight, Bender and Chandler. Also, while Booker is probable, as of this writing, Barbosa is questionable.

Detroit's Reggie Jackson had this to say: "We are not panicking. Everybody has had their run, so 13 games left, I know in my mind I am bound to make one before it happens, so I am good. I plan to be in the playoffs. We are going to keep chasing it each and every day. I love my team and they are optimistic, just as much as I am. We are going to keep attacking this."

While the Suns did beat the Pistons at Phoenix, they're just 10-25 on the road. The Pistons, on the other hand, are 22-14 at home.

With the Suns allowing 112.5 ppg, note that the Pistons are 8-3 ATS their last 11 against teams which allow 106 or more points per game. Look for the Pistons to bounce back with a big win, improving to 7-2 ATS their last nine, after losing their previous three in a row.

I'm playing on BUTLER 10* PERS FAV. The Blue Raiders were certainly impressive in their opening round upset of Minnesota. However, I believe they're a little over-valued here, based partly on the fact that everyone remembers them from last year, when they upset Michigan State. I expect them to find things considerably more difficult against a tough Butler team.

While everyone seems to remember the Blue Raiders' upset of the Spartans, many seem to have forgotten what happened to them in the next round. In case you forgot, they got destroyed (75-50) by Syracuse. (While I didn't play a side in that game, I did cash a ticket on the 'under.') 

Like Syracuse proved to be last year,  I believe this is a very dangerous Butler team. When the Bulldogs are "on," they can beat any team in the country.  Indeed, the Bulldogs beat Villanova, TWICE. As impressive as MTSU's record was, they really didn't have a very difficult schedule. 

With their opening round victory, the Bulldogs are now 4-1 ATS in neutral court games. Going back further finds them at a profitable 71-34 ATS, excluding pushes, their last 105 lined neutral court games. That includes a 24-8 ATS mark in the "Big Dance," 5-0 ATS their last five. Look for Butler's games against the likes of Villanova to pay dividends here, the Bulldogs advancing and covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DAYTON 10* BEST BET. Its not often that you find a #10 seed favored by this much over a #6 seed. While Wichita State admittedly, deserved a better seed, I don't feel that the Shockers should be laying this many points against a very competitive Dayton team. The Flyers had seven losses this season. A look at those losses shows that only one came by greater than six points and that was more than two months ago. The other six losses all came by six or fewer points. This is a team which beat Rhode Island twice and split with VCU. The Flyers nearly knocked off both St. Mary's and Northwestern. The Shockers, 7-15 ATS their last 22 tournament games, were only 3-4 ATS in neutral site games. That included an 0-2 ATS mark when listed as neutral court favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Don't be "shocked" when this game comes down to the wire, Dayton improving to 5-1-1 ATS its last seven, when getting points. 

I'm playing on CREIGHTON 10* GAME OF THE YEAR. While I respect the Rams, I believe that they're in over their heads here. True, the Rams come in on a roll, while the Bluejays have been a little inconsistent in recent weeks. Thats kept the line lower than it could have been, essentially making the pointspread a non-factor. Not bad when considering that Creighton is a #6 seed, facing an #11 seed. 

After an 18-1 start, Creighton lost its starting point guard, Maurice Watson, to injury. Admittedly, that was a blow to the team. It also took a toll when Watson was charged with sexual assault a few weeks later. This is a well-coached team thougha dn the adversity figures to have brought them closer together. 

Creighton's Ronnie Harrell Jr noted: "It's easy to get caught up in everything that's going on around you that you forget what's happening in front of you. So we've talked as a team, coaches included, about just staying in the moment, having each other's back as well as having everybody else's back. So I think that was the main thing for us, and I think we've done a great job of that."

Creighton coach Doug McDermott had this to say of his team: "For us to be seeded as one of the top 24 teams in the country, given everything we've been through, it's a testament to the will and togetherness, the cohesiveness of this group."

While many seem down on the Bluejays, keep in mind that they beat Providence by double-digits and then knocked off a good Xavier team to advance to the Big East finals. Thought they lost (to Villanova) when they got there, this is still a team which has proven capable of rising to the occasion and playing the #1 team in the country in their last game, at MSG, figures to help them here.

McDermott went on to say: "It's one thing for me to talk about what it's like, but to experience it and feel it, what the Garden is like on championship Saturday, it's something that's pretty incredible. And our experience here this week is going to help us moving forward and, I think, help us in the NCAA Tournament."

While the Rams are 0-3 SU/ATS their last three against Big East teams, the Bluejays were a perfect 13-0 SU (8-3 ATS in lined games) this season, when facing a non-conference opponent. They're also 11-3-1 ATS (12-3 SU) their last 15 as a neutral court favorite of three or fewer points, or a game where the line is a pick'em. Throw in the fact the BlueJays are 5-1 the last six times that they played with five or six day's rest and I'm backing the higher seed.

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE 10* PERS FAV. The Warriors haven't covered in awhile but this should be a good spot to break though with a blowout win. While the Warriors have tomorrow off, the Magic play at Phoenix tomorrow. That's a far more winnable game, obviously. Once the Warriors jump all over them, they're likely to start thinking about tomorrow and may not fight as hard to try and get back in the game. In their last three games, the Magic have allowed 121, 116 and 120 points. Since they only average 99.9 ppg, that makes keeping up tough. Note that they're 7-12 ATS (4-15 SU) against teams which average 106 or more ppg. Now, they'll face a GSW team which still averages a whopping 119.1 ppg. The Warriors won the first meeting by 20 points. With the Magic only 12-25 ATS their last 37, after allowing 115 or more ppg, look for this one to also turn ugly.

I'm playing on FLORIDA 10* PERS FAV. True, the Gators had some trouble with Vanderbilt at the end of the year and come in with three losses in four games. Those results have keep this line a little lower, in my opinion, could easily have been.  Not only are the Gators a much stronger team, they also get to play at Orlando, quite close to home. 

While the Buccaneers were just 2-2 ATS as underdogs this season, the Gators were 17-8 ATS when laying points. The Bucs, who don't score nearly as many points on the road as they do at home, haven't played too many good teams. One "decent" team they faced was Datyon. The Flyers beat them by 14. 

The Bucs do have an elite player in senior guard TJ Cromer. However, he's just one player and the Gators are going to be paying extra attention to him. He'll get his points, but it won't be enough. 

In addition to being a stronger overall team which is playing at a favorable venue, I like the fact that Florida hasn't had as much time off in between games. The Gators last played on 3/10 compared to the Bucs last playing on 3/6. Thats a pretty big gap in between games for the Bucs - the longest they had this season. 

While the Bucs were 8-9 ATS in lined games against teams which score 77 or more points this season, the Gators are 4-1 ATS their last five against teams which score 77 or more. Look for them to "bounce back," serving notice that "they're back" with a double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS 10* PERS FAV. Recent results have kept this line lower than it could have been. The Bucks have been rolling while the Grizzlies have been reeling. I feel that the low line is providing us with very fair value on what should be a desperate home team. The Grizzlies badly need a victory. After this, they've got six of their next seven on the road, the lone home game during that stretch coming against San Antonio. 

While the recent results haven't been there for the Grizzlies, it hasn't been from lack of effort. Coach David Fizdale made these comments after yesterday's practice: "As long as I see that we’re getting in the gym early, staying connected, staying positive and getting shots up then I’m encouraged. Obviously, we’ve got to iron some things out and get us playing better basketball. But I just keep looking at the body of work. Obviously, we’re disappointed because we feel like we’ve let the fans down some with these losses at home. But if our fans knew how hard these guys were working behind the scenes on being a better basketball team they’d be happy to know that. We’re going to work our way out of the mud. That’s all it is. We've hit adversity. Its punched us in the face. We have to figure out how to get up ..."

The Grizzlies, who lost at Milwaukee earlier in the season, are 17-12 ATS (19-10 SU) when playing with 'revenge.' They still only allow 97.3 ppg on this floor. They're still 19-14 here, which compares favorably to the Bucks' 12-17 mark on the road.

While they've now lost three in a row at Milwaukee, the Grizzlies have dominated the Bucks here at Memphis. They won by 20 when they last hosted the Bucks and that brought them to 5-0 SU the last five meetings here. The last four of those all come by a minimum of nine points, the last two by double-digits. The Grizzlies, who are expected to bring back Tony Allen to the starting lineup tonight, held the Bucks to 90 or fewer points in ALL five games. Expect them to bounce back with a strong defensive effort, en route to a much needed win and cover.

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* MAIN EVENT. The Heat have been on an impressive run and they won again yesterday. I expect their roll to come to an end today though. While the Heat were busy playing Toronto yesterday, the Pacers were resting, waiting for them. Its true that the Heat did have a couple of days off, prior to yesterday's game. However, they'd previously played three games in four days, including an emotional home-and-home vs. Lebron and the Cavs. So, this will still mark their sixth game in the past 10 days. To look at it another way, they've played one more game in March than Indiana has. The Pacers have only played two home games since the All Star Break and they've won them both. In fact, both wins (Memphis and Detroit) came by double-digits. Overall, they're 22-10 at home, compared to a 14-20 road mark for Miami. Playing with revenge from a pair of losses at Miami, look for the rested, revenge-minded Pacers to take care of business on their home floor. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN 10* GAME OF WEEK. Obviously, both teams have played very well to get this far. I like what the Badgers have done more though. Michigan beat Minnesota by an 84-77 margin yesterday. However, Wisconsin destroyed Northwestern by a 76-48 margin. Prior to that, the Badgers beat Indiana by double-digits on Friday. Michigan, on the other hand, needed OT to get past Purdue. Playing those extra OT minutes - and having to fight harder than the Badgers - combined with the fact that the Wolverines also had to play Thursday while Wisconsin had that day off, figures to catch up with the Wolverines here. The Badgers have been the much stronger defensive team all season. They allowed 61.5 ppg, opposing teams shooting 40.7% from the field. On the other hand, Michigan allowed 65.5 ppg, opposing teams shooting 46.5%. Look for the Badgers' fresher legs and superior defense to be the difference. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. Off four straight wins, the Blazers are playing their best basketball. The Blazers, who are a much better team here at the Moda Center, know that they hit the road for five games after this. With an 11-22 road record, compared to a 17-13 mark here at home, they know how important is to take care of business tonight. Admittedly, the Wizards have also been playing well lately. However, while the Blazers had last night off, the Wizards were forced to go to OT to beat Sacramento. Not only will they be playing the second of b2b games but this will also mark their fourth road game in the past five days. Thats a brutal schedule, made worse by the extra minutes they were forced to play last night. While the Wizards blew them out at Washington earlier, the Blazers have dominated the Wizards here at Portland in recent seasons. With the schedule and venue in their favor, expect the revenge-minded Blazers to stay hot for another day.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* ANNIHILATOR. I won with the Spartans when these teams met on 1/11. At the time, a lot of people were backing the underdog Gophers, who were playing with 'revenge' from a 1-point loss on 12/27. I opted to lay the small number with the Spartans though, expecting their homecourt to prove too much to overcome. They rewarded me with a 65-47 victory, jumping out to a 39-17 lead by half. This one, however, is at the Verizon Center and I expect an entirely different result. 

The Gophers made remarkable progress this season, a 15-game turnaround from last year. Getting knocked out in their first tournament game and losing all three to the Spartans is NOT the way that they want their Big Ten campaign to come to an end. I expect an extremely motivated effort and I expect them to be far more ready to play than they were last time. Note that Minnesota is 7-2 ATS and 8-1 SU the last nine times that it attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. 

The Gophers have the second best RPI (behind Purdue) in the Big Ten. They hold opposing teams to a 39.6% field goal percentage, which is best in the Big Ten. They also rank #1 in 3-point defense, limiting opposing teams to 30.8% from beyond the arc.

One of the impressive things about the Gophers' defense is that its been every bit as good on the road as it has been at home. Thats helped lead to a winning (6-5) road record. On the other hand, the Spartans give up considerably more points on the road (72.1) than they do at home. On the road, they allow opposing teams to connect on 43.3% of their shots. 

When the teams last met, the Gophers were part way through a 5-game losing streak. They're arguably playing much better now. Though they did lose their last one, they'd previously won eight straight. Look for their superior defense to be the difference, as they bounce back and "take the next step" by beating the Spartans and earning a tournament win. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Off three straight losses, most recently an embarrassing setback against Brooklyn on Monday, the Grizzlies are going to be in an angry mood. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect them to bounce back with a much needed victory. 

While the Grizzlies have been off since Monday, the Clippers played last night. They're 6-7 SU/ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games. This is worse than a "typical" b2b spot though, as this will mark their third game in the past four days, their fifth game in the past seven days.

The Clippers have taken two of three meetings this season. The teams split a pair of games at LA and the Clippers won here, back in November. However, even with that result, the Grizzlies are still a profitable 6-3 SU/ATS the last nine times that they hosted the Clippers. 

The only previous time that the Grizzlies had lost three straight this season, they bounced back with a double-digit victory in their next game. Expect another win and cover here. *GOM

I'm playing on TULSA 10* PERS FAV. Admittedly, the Golden Hurricane haven't been very good in March the past couple of seasons. However, I expect them to break through with a big win this evening. While Tulsa's 14-16 record may not seem too impressive, it starts to look pretty good when compared to Tulane's 6-24 (2-14 on the road) mark.

Tulsa only connects on 42% of its shots. The Green Wave are worse though, making just 40.7% (37.9% on the road) of theirs. Its on the other side of the ball where Tulsa really has the edge though. The Golden Hurricane allow 70.3 points on 43.5% shooting. The Green Wave, on the other hand, allow 78.9 ppg on 47.4% shooting. 

Tulane does come off a rare win, an 81-69 win over the same Tulsa team they'll face here. However, the Green Wave are only 3-10 SU and 3-9-1 ATS the last 13 times that they were off a conference win, 0-2 SU and 0-1-1 ATS this season. They wanted that game (Senior Day) more than Tulsa, but that won't be the case here. The Golden Hurricane are 9-4 ATS (10-3 SU) when laying points. Look for them to take care of business, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. The Hawks badly need a big win and the Nets should be the perfect opponent to provide them with one. While the Nets won big at Memphis last time out, they're still a dismal 4-27 away from Brooklyn. They give up 116.9 ppg on the road. That was just their second win in recent weeks. They followed up their last with a 15-point loss. In fact, they haven't won two games in a row all season long. They're also just 7-17 SU/ATS the last 24 times that they were off a double-digit win. The Hawks already won by 20 at Brooklyn earlier. They also beat the Nets by 28 the last meeting here at Atlanta. Catching the Nets, who haven't played a home game since 2/15, playing the second last leg of a long road trip, look for the Hawks to bounce back with another blowout. 

I'm playing on RICE. I believe that there's a big gap in talent between these teams and that the Golden Eagles' best chance of staying competitive would be if the Owls took them lightly. However, with both regular season meetings having been closer than expected, the Owls have already taken them for granted. They've had their "wake-up call" and I don't expect them to make the same mistake. The Owls know how to win, regarldess of venue. They averaged 81 ppg away from home, going 9-5. Overall, they were 21-10. Conversely, Southern Miss was 9-21 and that included a horrific 1-15 mark, when playing away from home. The Golden Eagles averaged just 56.7 points in those 16 games. Look for the Owls, 4-1 ATS their last five on a neutral court, to be all business the entire way, pulling away for a blowout win. 

I'm playing on OKC. This will mark the third meeting between these teams in just over a month. I successfully backed the Thunder when they hosted the Blazers on 2/5. Last week, on March 2nd, I successfully backed the Blazers, when they were the host. That brings the home team to 3-0 SU/ATS on the season series. With this evening's fourth and final meeting being played at OKC and with the schedule in their favor, I expect the Thunder to again "hold serve" at home. While the Thunder had last night off, the Blazers had to play a game at Minnesota. This will mark their third game in the past four days. The Thunder, who have dropped three straight starting with the loss at the Moda Center, are 3-0 SU/ATS since late November, when off three or more consecutive losses this season. The last time that they were in that situation they responded with a 14-point win against Memphis. Prior to that, they beat Denver by 15. Before that, they also beat the Nuggets, this time at Denver. Expect the Thunder to have the fresher legs and for them to bounce back, once again. UPDATE: Portland's game against Minnesota got postponed, after this play was written. While that means that the Blazers are no longer in a "back-to-back spot," it does not change this play. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND STATE 8* VIOLATOR. With a 14-15 record, the #8 seeded Vikings may not seem like a team worthy of laying this many points. However, when compared to #9 Northern Arizona, which checks in with a dismal 9-22 record, I believe that the Vikings are actually pretty good. Whether they're talking about football or basketball, you still sometimes hear people make the statement: "Defense wins championships." Well, offense helps too. The Vikings score far more points than any team in the Big Sky. Portland State averages 86 ppg. At 80 ppg, North Dakota, which finished with the best overall record in the conference, was second best. On the other hand, Northern Arizona is at the very bottom of the conference offensively, averaging just 69.4 ppg. The Lumberjacks don't do enough defensively to make up for it either, as they allow 79 ppg, when playing away from home. The Vikings, which also rank in the top 3 in the entire country in steals, may have lost a couple in a row but I feel that they're going to come in confident. Last year, they were also the #8 seed in this tournament. Not only did they win their opening round game, then nearly beat Weber State (which ended up winning the whole thing) as they were leading with less than three minutes to go. Plus, they just beat these same Lumberjacks by a dozen points on 2/25. I backed the Vikings in that game and I'm going with them again here.

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Heat embarrassed the Cavs on Saturday. With the rematch being played Cleveland, expect the Cavs, who are back home off three straight on the road, to exact some serious revenge. Note that Cleveland is a lucrative 17-9-1 ATS (22-5 SU) its last 27, including 3-1 SU/ATS this season, after having played its previous three or more on the road. While the Heat are 13-20 on the road, the Cavs are 26-6 at home. The Heat lost their last road game (at Orlando) by double-digits and the Cavs won by 30 when the teams met here last. Payback time. *GOW

I'm playing on VERMONT 10* PERS FAV. While the Wildcats have been solid, the Catamounts are on a mission. They're destroying teams right now and I don't expect them to let the Wildcats, who they've already beaten twice, to stand in their way. After winning the regular season title, the Catamounts tipped off postseason play with an 86-41 obliteration of Maine. Full of confidence, the Catamounts haven't lost since before Christmas. Their last four wins have all come by double-digits. While the Wildcats have a modest winning streak of their own, it came against the bottom feeders of the America East. Playing at home in the the Roy L Patrick Gymnasium, where they've outscored teams by an average score of 75.2 to 57.3, look for the Catamounts to keep on rolling for another day. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 8* MAIN EVENT. Off three straight losses, the "Cousins-less" Kings aren't getting much respect. While the Jazz are a tough opponent, they aren't quite as intimidating away from Utah. They only outscore teams by an average of 2.5 points (100.6 to 98.1) on the road; I believe this line will prove to be too high. The Kings haven't played since the first day of March. The breakfigures to have come at a good time; the Kings had been struggling it'll have given them a chance to work on the new lineup. Note that they're 2-0-1 ATS when playing with three or more day's rest. They're also 8-2 ATS when off three or more consecutive losses, winning six of those outright. While the Kings are 8-4 ATS against teams from the Northwest, the Jazz are 3-9-1 ATS against teams from the Pacific. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by single-digits including each of the last two at Sacramento. The Kings actually won three of those five games outright. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* VIOLATOR. This one should get ugly. The Cougars already won by 16 when the teams met in January. That was at East Carolina, where the Pirates are far more competitive. They're 12-5 at home but just 2-11 on the road. Off an emotional win over UConn on Senior Night, it should be easy for them to lay an egg here. On the other hand, Houston should be highly motivated. Not only is this Senior Day for the Cougars, but they're also off an ugly loss in their last game, one which saw them score only 47 points. They've had an excellent season and the last thing they want to do is to squader it and limp into the conference tournament off back-to-back losses. The Cougars won by 16 points each previous time that they'd scored 60 or fewer points this season, covering the spread in each of those. I expect them to win by an even bigger margin than that here. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played on the Blazers in their last game. Off that Thursday win over OKC, the Blazers take a big step down in class to face a road-weary Brooklyn team. They know this a game that they can ill afford to squander. While the Blazers had last night off, the Nets fought hard but ultimately lost by double-digits at Utah. They're 0-10 SU when playing the second of b2b games this season. This will make the Nets' fifth straight road game and their third road game through the first four days of March. Note that they're now 0-5-1 ATS (0-6 SU) after playing their previous three on the road. The Blazers already beat the Nets by 20 at Brooklyn, a 129-109 blowout. Facing a Nets team which allows 116.7 ppg, the Blazers are going to put up a big number again here. I don't feel the Nets are going to have the necessary desire or energy to keep up. Look for the Blazers, 9-4 ATS (12-1 SU) the last 13 times that they faced a team which allows 106 or more points in the second half of the season, to run them out of the building. 

I'm playing on LONG BEACH STATE 10* BIG WEST GAME OF YEAR. The Warriors come in with the better overall record and they won when the teams met at Hawaii. However, I believe that the 49ers are favored for good reason. While the 49ers may only have one senior (Anson Moye) to recognize on Senior Night, this game is still a big deal. A victory gives the 49ers, who are off b2b losses, some positive momentum entering the Big West Tournament. It also would give them the #4 seed for that tournament and a rematch with these same Warriors. They've been outstanding (9-2) here all season and I believe that they're going to want to "establish dominance" over the Warriors, before the tournament. Speaking of the tournament, the Warriors have had an emotional 24 hours. They just learned yesterday that they're eligible for the Big West Tournament. I believe that could easily cause them to "look ahead" to those bigger games. While the 49ers are well-rested, having not played since 2/25, the Warriors just played on Thursday. That loss dropped them to 3-6 on the road. The Warriors average 64.7 ppg on the road, the 49ers average 77.5 ppg at home. I believe they're going to be both hungrier and fresher and I expect that to lead to a win and cover. *Top Big West

I'm playing on DALLAS 10*. While I understand why Memphis, which has the far better overall record is favored, I could easily make a case for Dallas being the favorite. True, the Grizzlies hammered the Mavs when these teams met here back in November. However, at the time, Dallas was really struggling. That game came right in the middle of an 8-game losing streak and the Mavs which saw the Mavs start off with an 2-13 record. They're playing much better now though, having covered three straight. Their last two games here at Dallas resulted in a double-digit win over the Pelicans and a 7-point win over a previously red-hot Miami team. With a win tonight, the Mavs would/will have a better home record than the Grizzlies will have a road record. Already, they're outscoring teams by a 100 to 97.1 point margin here which is superior to the Grizzlies' stats on the road; they're getting outscored by a 103.7 to 103.6 margin in road games. The Grizzlies have had a couple of days off in between games. Thats not necessarily a positive for them though, as they're 1-6 ATS when playing with two day's rest. Note that they've got a big (divisional) showdown at Houston on deck tomorrow night. The Mavs, on the other hand, get tomorrow off. They're 10-3 ATS the last 13 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss and I expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO 10*. The Magic have taken two of three meetings, each of the last two, against the Heat. This is a team which they match up well against and they're going to come in confident. They had yesterday off and they also have tomorrow off. The Heat, now just 13-19 on the road, have a game against former teammate Lebron James on deck tomorrow. If there's ever a game to look ahead to, that could be the one. Don't be surprised when the Magic score the upset. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10*. The Wizards just hammered the Raptors a couple of days ago, at Toronto. Playing with recent revenge, I expect a much better effort from the Raptors here. The Raptors, now 14-7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record, won by 10 when they played here earlier. They also won both meetings here last season. They're comfortable on this floor and I look for them to bounce back with at least a cover. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* MAIN EVENT. I won with the Thunder when these teams met at OKC a few weeks ago. The Thunder were only laying -4.5 points for that 2/5 game and I felt that was a little low. However, just as OKC is much better on its home floor, the Blazers are a MUCH stronger team at the Moda Center. The Thunder are 23-8 at home but just 12-17 on the road. The Blazers are 10-22 on the road but 14-13 here at home. Not surprisingly, given those records, the Blazers won (114-95) when these teams met here back in December. In fact, the Blazers have won five straight meetings against the Thunder here. Those five victories came by an average of 10 points, too. While the Thunder play again tomorrow, the Blazers are rested and they also get tomorrow night off. Fully focused on the task at hand, look for the Blazers to continue their homecourt success in the series. 

I'm playing on UAB. I successfully backed the Blazers in their last game, a cover against Middle Tennessee State. This should be another good spot for them. Its true that UAB has won only one if its last seven games. Those results have actually worked in our favor. Not only have they kept the line a little lower than it could have been but they should provide us with an extremely motivated UAB team. A closer look reveals that four of those seven games came on the road and that the two home losses came against MTSU and ODU, two of the top four teams in the conference. During that 7-game stretch, the lone home game vs. an opponent (Charlotte) in a similar class as the one they'll face here, resulted in a 13-point win and cover. Speaking of that Charlotte game, the Blazers were laying -10, which is higher than they opened up here. Yet, the 49ers are arguably better than the Owls. (FAU did beat Charlotte by two points in h2h action, but Charlotte has the superior overall record on the season.) While the Owls are 5-8 on the road, the Blazers are still a healthy 10-4 at home. The Blazers have beaten the Owls three straight times, including a 104-67 destruction the last time they met on this floor. I'm expecting another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on XAVIER 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Musketeeers have really struggled down the stretch. In fact, they're in the midst of their worst losing streak in many years. On Senior Night, looking to avenge a recent loss at Marquette, I expect them to bounce back with a much-needed win. The Golden Eagles could easily get caught looking ahead to their only Senior Day, Saturday's showdown vs. Creighton, Luke Fischer's final regular season game. While the Eagles won big at BMO Harris Bradley Center on Feb 18, the Musketeers had previously dominated the recent series. Speaking of that 2/18 game, its one that the Musketeers won't have forgotten. Not only did the Eagles pound them but the Marquette fans started a chant of "F— you Xavier!" That resulted in the following statement from Marquette admin: "Profane chants don't reflect our values. They don't show support for our student athletes on the court, or respect for our opponents. And they don't send the right message about who we are to families sitting nearby, visitors from a fellow Jesuit institution or to the rest of the country watching on television." Needless to say, it didn't sit too well with the Musketeers. Keep in mind that Xavier was a Top 25 team not too long ago. Now, the Musketeers are likely going to need a strong showing in the Big East tournament for a shot at the Big Dance. I say the "bounce back" starts here with some "payback" on Wednesday. *GOW

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* PERS FAV. The Bucks lost a close one, at Denver, a few weeks ago. At the time, it was their fifth straight loss. So, they weren't playing well at the time and they also had a game on deck, the next night. They'd go on to win that one (at Phoenix) before dropping their next two. Since then, they've won four of their last six, the only losses coming vs. Utah and at Cleveland. So, they're playing much better than they were for the 2/3 meeting. They're well-rested and they also don't have to worry about playing a game tomorrow, as they did for the earlier meeting. Of course, they're also a much better team at home than they are on the road. A win here will pull them back above the .500 mark at home. They're just 11-17 on the road. The Nuggets have similar home/road stats, as they too are much better in their home building. While the Bucks had Tuesday off, the Nuggets were busy battling Chicago. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, this will be their third game in four days and their fifth in the past seven. Look for it to catch up with them here, the Bucks taking advantage. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON 10* PERS FAV. The Bonnies check in with the superior overall record. However, I believe that the Wildcats are favored for good reason. Both teams are going to want this one. The Bonnies will be looking for some payback against a Davidson team which knocked them out of the A-10 tourney, in "heart-breaking" fashion, last season.  The Wildcats will be every bit as hungry though, if not more. Its their final regular season home game - Senior Day - and they'll be looking to go out with a bang. While the Bonnies have an explosive backcourt duo of Adams and Mobley, this floor belongs to the tandem of Gibbs and Aldridge, a pair of Wildcat guards who are averaging better than 42 combined points on the season. Mathematically, the Bonnies can still improve their seeding for the A-10 Tourney. However, the reality is that they're likely already locked into the 5th seed. In order to improve, they'd need to win both their remaining games while also having Rhode Island or Richmond, who each play relatively easy games, to lose both theirs. While the Bonnies are 1-6-1 ATS the last eight times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 140s, the Cats are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were home favorites of three or less. I'm laying the small number. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* BLOODBATH. There's a significant class difference between these teams and this one should get ugly. The Jayhawks are rolling right now. They've won six straight and covered the spread in their last three. Playing their home finale, I expect them to keep the pedal the metal the entire way. While the Sooners were impressive in scoring a minor upset (at OU) vs. K-State last time out, they're just 3-11 away from home. They've got a winnable game (TCU) on deck but can't be very confident about their chances here. While the Sooners average 72.2 ppg on the road, the Jayhawks average 87.8 ppg here at home. Look for Kansas, also better on the defensive side of the ball, to deliever a "statement blowout."

I'm playing on DALLAS 10* GAME OF WEEK. Some of you will likely recall that I cashed a big play (GOW) on the Heat when these teams met at Miami, back on 1/19. I had a number of reasons why I played on the Heat, at the time, and stated that I expected them to "stay hot" and "go on a winning streak." At the time, the Heat hadn't won back-to-back games for ages and were seemingly already playing out the stretch. Things are different now though.

Including the 1/19 win over the Mavs, the Heat are an improbable and impressive 16-2 their last 18 games. Thats resulted in us getting far better value with the Mavs tonight, than we were last month. Keep in mind that the line for that game closed at "pick'em," despite it being played at Miami. The Mavs are a much better team at home than they are on the road though. They're still above 500 here, at 15-14. On the road, they're only 8-21. Its fair to say that the Mavs have been an entirely different team here. Off a double-digit win over the new-look Pelicans, they come in with some momentum, too. 

Even with their recent hot streak, the Heat are still a sub-500 team. They're still 13-18 on the road. While the Mavs outscore teams by a 100.1 to 97.4 average here at Dallas, the Heat get outscored by a 102.3 to 99.4 average margin, when playing on the road. That's with the Mavs playing in the tougher conference, too. While the Heat have certainly proven worthy of respect, I believe the value lies with the revenge-minded Mavs. Look for them to avenge last month's loss and improve to 8-3 ATS their last 11 against teams with a losing (SU) record. *GOW

I'm playing on QUINNIPIAC 10* MOTIVATIONAL MISMATCH. I've recently won with Rider and have recently successfully played against Quinnipiac. However, in each of those instances, I was playing on a revenge-minded home team, which was playing its fiinal home game. Today, the shoe is on the other foot. Its the Bobcats which will be playing with revenge and the Bobcats which will be playing their final home game. Though the Bobcats already know they'll be the #8 seed in the MAAC tourney, I believe they're going to be extremely motivated to close out the regular season with a win. They badly want to snap their losing streak, a win here will get them back to .500 at home and avenge the earlier "track meet" loss (112-107) at Rider. Also, the Bobcats will honor seniors Harris, Chigha and Smith before the game and would really like to send them out as winners. Look for them to do just that, the Broncs falling to 2-6 ATS the last eight times that they were road favorites of three or less. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND STATE 10* BLOODBATH. I expect a motivated Vikings team to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here. Not only are they playing with 'revenge' from an earlier loss at Northern Iowa but this marks the Vikings' final game at Peter W. Stott Center's main gym, as the entire complex is being remodeled and renovated. (Next year, the team will play at Viking Pavilion.) They'll want to close things out here with a big win, as they recognize five seniors who are playing their last game here. Northern Arizona averages 69 ppg on the road, going 3-14. On the other hand, Portland State averages 90.2 ppg here at home, going 9-3. Payback time. 

I'm playing on UCLA 10* BEST BET. The Bruins are 27-13 ATS the last 40 times that they were listed as road underdogs (or pick) of three or fewer points. They won 23 of those games outright. They'll be looking to avenge a loss at UCLA, their only home loss, and I like their chances of another "upset" there. There was some initial talk that Ball might not play but as of this writing, it appears he'll be good to go. While the Cats score 78 ppg at home, the Bruins score 88 ppg on the road. While we have to go back some time, note that the Cats are just 5-10 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. I'm backing the Bruins.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. The Kings got the post-Cousins era started with a victory. It remains to be seen what the long-term impact of Cousins' departure will be. Undoubtedly, he was extremely talented. The Kings weren't able to surround him with much though and still didn't win with him. Sometimes, a fresh start is best for all. Either way, however, this is a team still likely to struggle down the stretch. The Kings, already without Gay for the season, simply don't have much. This is a team that Charlotte can't afford to lose against. Not when the Kings already beat them last month. At the time, the Hornets were in the midst of a losing streak and off a hard fought loss against the Knicks the previous day. Cousins torched them for 35 points and 18 rebounds. This time, they're in the midst of another losing streak and off another hard-fought loss. However, this time, they had yesterday off and this time they won't have to contend with Cousins. Payback time. 

I'm playing on EMU 10* BREAKFAST CLUB. The Huskies won by 12 points when these teams met at NIU a few weeks ago. That game marked the beginning of what has turned out to be a dismal (winless) February for Eastern Michigan. Playing their final home game of the month, where they should be able to more effectively dicate the tempo, I expect a motivated Eagles team to exact some revenge this afternoon. While the Eagles score a healthy 85.8 ppg at home, the Huskies score a mere 66.2 ppg on the road. The Eagles are 7-3 ATS (8-2 SU) the last 10 times that they were favored at home in the -3.5 to -6 range. Payback time. 

I'm playing on CAL 10* BLOODBATH. The Beavers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off three consecutive losses, their first losing streak of more than two games, the Bears are going to be in an angry mood. This also marks their final home game of the regular season (Senior Night) and they'll be looking to send Jabari Bird, Sam Singer, Roger Moute a Bidias, Stephen Domingo and Grant Mullins out in style. With an 0-14 record on the road, the Beavers represent the perfect opponent. Expect the Bears, who still have a shot at a first round bye in the Pac-12 Tournament, to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way, en route to a blowout win.

I'm playing on DAVIDSON 10* MAIN EVENT. The Flyers are on a winning streak and are likely going to be a popular play here. However, I like the Wildcats to score the upset. Davidson, which lost at Richmond last time out, has long thrived off a conference loss. In fact, the Wildcats are 50-19 SU and 44-23 ATS the last 59 times that they were off a conference loss. That includes a 13-8 SU/ATS mark their last 21 in that situation. The last time that they lost, they followed it up with a double-digit victory over George Washington. That also happened to be their most recent home game. Keep in mind that the Wildcats have already beaten VCU here, the team Dayton is battling for top spot. So, they've shown that they can compete with the best in the conference, on this floor. Speaking of VCU, Dayton plays the Rams next, a huge game. Though the Flyers do get a few days off first, on their current winning streak, it could be easy to look past Davidson and ahead to that one. I'm backing the home team. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* MAIN EVENT. The Raptors have covered all three meetings with the Celtics this season, going 2-1 SU. That includes a 114-106 win in the game here at Toronto, a game they were laying -5 for. We're getting a considerably lower line to work with here, which I feel is providing us with excellent value. While the Celtics are 3-8 ATS in divisional games, the Raptors are 10-2 ATS. The Celtics are a solid 17-12 on the road. However, the Raptors are a superior 19-10 at home. Boston outscores teams by a modest 106.9 to 105.4 margin on the road. Toronto outscores teams by a 111.6 to a 103.1 margin at home. I expect homecourt to prove the difference, the Raptors continuing their success in the series and moving to 5-1 SU/ATS their last six as a host in this series. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. The Heat hammered the Hawks on the first day of February. That was when they were in the middle of their big winning streak. That streak is now over, however, and the Heat are now playing on the road. The Heat are 12-18 on the road. The Hawks are 16-11 at home. The Hawks won by eight when these teams played here earlier this season. They were laying -9 for that game. (They were laying -10.5 when they hosted the Heat last February, too.) While things have changed since then, I don't feel that they've changed enough to warrant such a dramatic line shift. Look for homecourt to be the difference, the Hawks avenging the this month's earlier loss, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on COLORADO 10* PERS FAV. Homecourt means a lot to both of these teams. The Utes won big when they met at Utah earlier. Playing on their home floor, I expect the revenge-minded Buffaloes to return the favor this evening. While the Utes are 5-7 on the road, the Buffaloes are 11-3 at home. Utah gives up 71.3 ppg on the road, Colorado gives up 67.7 at home. Colorado also scores 77.3 at home, compared to 74.9 for the Utes on the road. The Utes just got swept in Oregon, losing by 18 at Eugene against the Ducks and by a single points at Corvallis against the Beavers. That last loss figures to sting a little, as 1-point losses often do. It also shows how much differently this team plays on the road, as the Utes had beaten those same Beavers fairly comfortably when the teams played at Utah. Homecourt proves the difference, again. 

I'm playing on RIDER 10* GAME OF WEEK. I won with the Jaspers in their last game. That was a great spot for them. This is not. Last game, the Jaspers were playing their regular season home finale, "Senior Night." They had a chance to get to .500 at home. They were also playing with 'revenge' against a Quinnipiac team which had defeated them in their previous game. Perhaps most importantly, they were catching their opponent off a deflating OT loss. None of those things apply here, however. 

This time, the Jaspers are on the road. They're just 3-12 away from home. They're facing a Rider team which is coming off a momentum-building 18-point win at Iona and which is playing its home finale. A victory here ensures the Broncs of a winning season overall, as well as a winning home record. Rider lost a close one (76-73) at Manhattan back in mid-January. Payback time. *GOW

I'm playing on BAYLOR 10* MAIN EVENT. The Sooners are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, the Bears are going to be in a foul mood. They've only lost back-to-back games once and they responded with a win and cover (at OSU) in their next game. The Sooners have had a long season and have little hope in winning either of their remaining two road games. These teams met at OU earlier, the Bears winning by 26 points. That was with the Sooners playing at home and playing with Jordan Woodard, their best player. He's now out making an already tough task that much more difficult. Sure, they'd love to avenge that embarrassing loss. However, in this case, wanting to do something and actually doing it are two entirely different matters. If the Bears hadn't just lost those games, one could make a case for them looking past the Sooners ahead to Iowa State. I don't see that happening here though. Baylor wins big, again. 

I'm playing on UVA 10* VIOLATOR. On Saturday, I successfully played on Miami while also successfully played against Virginia. So, some might be surprised that I'm "going the other way here" and playing on Virgnia and against Miami. However, each game needs to be looked at on its own individual merits and in this case, I feel that its the Cavs who will have a decided advantage. 

One of the (several) reasons that I played on the Hurricanes on Saturday was that I knew the had this game, a likely loser for them, on deck. Likewise, I knew that the Cavs, who have now dropped three straight for the first time this season, had this winnable game on deck. 

While this is the first time that the Cavs have lost three in a row, its the second time in which they failed to cover three straight. The previous time that happened? They responded with a win/cover in their next game, a 76-53 blowout of ECU. Including that result, they're a perfect 6-0 SU the last six times that they'd failed to cover three in a row.

The Canes are tough to beat on their home floor but they're below .500 on the road. They're also just 7-12 ATS against teams with a winning record. Here, they'll face an angry Virginia team which allows a mere 50.9 ppg on this floor. I'm expecting the Cavs to deliver another dominant defensive effort, en route to a double-digit victory.

I'm playing on MANHATTAN 10* MAAC GAME OF YEAR. I really like how this one sets up for the Jaspers, who are going to be highly motivated to avenge an earlier (2-point) loss at Qunnipiac and to win their final home game of the regular season. 

Both teams are off three straight losses. However, the Jaspers were blown out at Siena on Thursday while the Bobcats lost in heart-breaking fashion, at Fairfield, on Friday. I believe that Manhattan's loss - and the extra day of recovery/preparation - to prove  I call it "heart-breaking fashion," as the Bobcats were down 16 points in the second half, gave it everything they had and fought back to finally take a lead. Then, with less than one second (0.1) remaining, Fairfield hit a basket to force OT. The Stags would go on to lose by an 89-86 score. Some types of losses sting more than others and that one figures to fall into that category. 

While the Bobcats are 4-10 on the road, the Jaspers can get to .500 at home with a win. They're 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were off three or more consecutive SU losses and I expect them to improve on those stats here.

I'm playing on UNC 10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR. No matter what school or team one is talking about, life in the ACC is almost never easy. This is an incredibly challenging conference. You rarely get a break, or easy game. It can wear down the best of teams. I think thats started to happen to Virginia of late. The Cavs are just 1-3 SU/ATS their last four games. They responded to a loss at Syracuse by returning home and beating Louisville. However, that was followed by a narrow 2-point loss against instate rival V-Tech and proceeded by a double-digit loss against Duke. Things certainly don't get any easier here. Indeed, the Tar Heels are perfect on their home floor this season. 

Don't expect the Heels to show the Cavs any sympathy. UNC just got one of those "easy" wins, a 24-point blowout win at NC State. However, the Heels are well aware that this game marks the first of a 5-game stretch to close out the season which will feature four games against ranked teams. They also know that they'll be facing the Cavs, at Virginia, on 2/27. In other words, they better take care of business here. 

With four losses in six games, Virginia may be lacking some confidence. Monday's home game against Miami may provide them the opportunity to get some back. Not today though. Not here. The blowout of NC State and the perfect home record will have the Tar Heels brimming with of confidence. They score more than 90 points per game at home while Virginia scores less than 70 ppg on the road. Homecourt proves the difference, UNC "holding serve" and improving to 14-8 ATS the last 22 times it was a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. A look at the upcoming schedule shows that this game offers the Hurricanes their best chance at a victory. Three of their next four are on the road, none of them at easy venues, (V-Tech, Virginia and FSU) and their only remaining home game is against Duke. That means that they better take care of business this afternoon. I expect them to do exactly that. While the Tigers are 5-7 on the road, the Canes are 12-2 at home. Clemson allows 74 ppg on the road, opposing teams shooting 45.2%. Miami allows 62.3 ppg at home, visiting teams hitting only 39.3% of their shots. The Tigers won by 11 at Clemson last season. However, the Canes won by 11 here at Miami the previous season. Homecourt makes the difference once again. 

I'm playing on EASTERN WASHINGTON 10* BIG SKY GAME OF YEAR. When the Vandals rejoined the Big Sky a couple of years ago, they brought with them an 18-0 conference win/loss record against Eastern Washington. (Idaho had been an original "charter" member of the conference in 1963 but left in 1996.) Things changed while the Vandals were gone though. Including a 69-62 victory at Moscow in late December, its the Eagles who have now won five of the last seven in this "rivalry." 

Tonight's game has important implications for the upcoming Big Sky Tournament. The Eagles have a far superior overall record; they're 17-9 overall while the Vandals are 13-11. However, the teams are still close in terms of conference records; EWU is 9-5 while UI is 8-5. While the Eagles should already have an excellent shot at a first round bye (top 5 teams in the conference get a bye) they believe that they can achieve even more than that. 

As EWU coach Jim Hayford noted: " ... With a good homestand, we can fight for the conference championship ... "

Admittedly, the Vandals have played well in recent weeks. However, their positive momentum came to a crashing halt last time out, an 88-65 reality check at North Dakota. On the other hand, the Eagles bring some positive momentum into tonight's game as they're off a convincing 70-44 thrashing of Northern Colorado. 

As mentioned, the Eagles won at Idaho. They've been much better here at home, however. In fact, they're 12-1 SU in all "home" games, 8-1 SU in "home lined games." The Vandals, on the other hand, have won only four of their 12 road lined games.

Idaho isn't that great offensively, averaging just 73.3 ppg overall and 71.1 ppg on the road. That can make keeping up with good offensive teams (EWU averages 86 at home and has averaged over 90 its last five games) difficult. With an O/U line of 143 across the board, as of this writing, note that the Vandals are just 1-6 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. 

The Eagles know that they need to win here, to make the upcoming Weber State game here really meaningful and to keep any chance of the Big Sky reg. season title alive. They jumped all over the Vandals in the last game, taking a 39-25 lead into the break. Coming off the big win and with Idaho coming off the big loss, I expect "more of the same" tonight, another win and cover for the Eagles. 

I'm playing on MARSHALL 10* PERS FAV. I backed the Blazers (free play) when these teams met last month at UAB. So, I wasn't all that surprised to see UAB hold serve on its home floor. Including that result, the Blazers are 10-3 on their home floor but 5-8 when playing on the road. Marshall's home/road difference is even more pronounced. The Here are 3-10 when playing away from home but a dominating 11-1 here at home - the best home record in C-USA, in fact. While the Blazers are 1-8 ATS in road lined games, the Herd are 8-1 ATS in home lined games. UAB has had its way in the series in recent years including a close win here last season. I look for that to change tonight, homecourt making the difference once again.

I'm playing on BOSTON 10* PERS FAV. While the 76ers have been improved of late, they're not playing at the level that the Celtics are right now. Not many teams are, as Boston has won 10 of its last 11. That includes a 3-0 SU/ATS record in the Celtics' past three games. Playing their final home game before the break and first game back home in more than a week, I expect them to keep it rolling for another day. The 76ers have won three in a row for the third time. In the previous two instances, they were 0-2 SU/ATS in the following game. They lost those games by (16 and 17) 33 combined points. The Celtics average 109.7 ppg here and I don't expect the 76ers to be able to keep up. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Explorers have upset the Bonnies each of the past two seasons but I don't see it happening here. Though the Bonnies have failed to cover a few in a row, this should be a good spot for them to break through with a big win. While the Bonnies average better than 82 ppg on this floor, the Explorers allow more than 82 ppg, when playing on the road. The Bonnies lost a close one last time out, after winning by 15 in their previous game. However, they've been at their best in that situation as they're a perfect 4-0 SU (2-1-1 ATS) on the season, when off a conference loss. They won those games by an average of 13 points, the victories coming by 10, 20, 7 and 15 points. Expect homecourt to be the difference, the Bonnies again bouncing back with a win and cover.

I'm playing on K-STATE 10* MAIN EVENT. These teams have very similar home/road stats; each is significantly better on its home floor. The Cyclones are 9-3 on their home floor but 6-6 when playing away from home. Likewise, the Wildcats are also 6-6 when playing away from home but they're 10-3 here at home. Not surprisingly, given those records, the Cyclones won when the teams played at Iowa State. With this evening's rematch played at K-State, I expect the revenge-minded Wilcats to have the advantage. While the Cyclones are 2-4 ATS this season, after scoring 80 or more points, the Wildcats are 2-1 ATS (3-0 SU) after allowing 80 or more. The Cyclones allow 76.7 ppg on the road, the Cats allow 64.5 ppg here at home. Payback time. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* MAIN EVENT. I like how this one sets up for the home team. The T-Wolves got back on track in a big way on Sunday, crushing Chicago by 28 points. That wire-to-wire blowout should provide them with some confidence. The Cavs, who are expected to be without Love and perhaps Shumpert, have a big divisional showdown vs. Indiana on deck tomorrow night. Having already just pounded these same T-Wolves on the first day of February, it could be easy to look past them tonight. While the Cavs actually get outscored by an 108.4 to 108 average margin on the road, the T-Wolves outscore teams by a 106.4 to 103.8 average margin here at Minnesota. I really liked what I saw from them on Sunday and I expect them to deliver (at least) another cover here. 

I'm playing on KENTUCKY 10* ANNIHILATOR. A lot of handicappers, amateurs and pros alike, are quick to back an elite team in revenge situations. I did so myself last night with Kansas (which didn't go so well!) and am doing so again here. I don't do so blindly though, as I'm well aware that the pointspread tends to be pretty high on these teams, in these situations. I'm also well aware that Kentucky doesn't have a profitable recent history, when playing in the 'revenge' role. That said, I always look at each game individually and without bias. Every way I analyze this one, I get the same result - a big win for the Cats. 

Its been awhile since the Cats "blew a team out" and I feel that they're going to be motivated to do so here. Partly because the Vols beat them already. Absolutely. But also because they've got their next two on the road before hosting Florida, a team which beat them by 20 less than two weeks ago, in their next game here. I feel that they're going to look to build some confidence here - and I believe that the Vols will provide them that opportunity. 

The Vols are below .500 on the road. They only score 73.8 ppg away from home and they allow 74.4. Here, they'll face a Wildcat team which outscores teams by an average score of 92.4 to 72.4 on this floor. 

Note that the Vols are off a tough 1-point loss, as a favorite against Georgia, in their last game. Those types of defeats tend to sting and can be deflating. Not what you need when heading into hostile Kentucky. 

While they may not always thrive in the revenge role (4-6 ATS and 8-2 SU L10) the Cats have fared very well as home favorites of this size, in recent seasons. In fact, they're 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home favorites in the -12.5 to -15 range. With payback on their minds, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* GAME OF WEEK. While the Mountaineers are a fairly deep and talented team, I don't think they've got enough to sweep this very talented (and very well-coached) Kansas team. The Jayhawks are off back-to-back very close wins, which should serve them well in a "wake up call" way, here. They know they were a bit fortunate. They know they have to play better. Those results have also helped us in keeping the line a little lower than it easily could have been. Note that the Jayhawks are 69-11 SU the last 80 times that they were listed as favorites. During that 80-game span, they were only listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range twice. They won and covered both of those games. 

While the Mountaineers are 7-3, averaging 78.5 ppg on the road, the Jayhawks are 11-1, averaging 88.2 ppg, at home.

They're 50-12 SU the last 62 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss, 9-2 their last 11. Look for the Jayhawks to improve on those numbers, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on UTAH 10*. Off back-to-back losses, the Jazz figure to be an in an angry mood. This marks the third time in 2017 that they've lost back-to-back games. In both previous instances, they responded with a win and cover in their next game, snapping the skid before it reached three games. While the Clippers have started to win some games without Paul and are off back-to-back road wins, they're still a modest 16-13 on the road. They'll take on a Utah team which ranks as the stingiest in the entire league and which is 19-10 here at home. While the Clippers allow 109.3 ppg on the road, the Jazz allow just 94.1 ppg here at home. With the Jazz, who lost at LA earlier, at 69-41-3 ATS in the "revenge role," the past few seasons, I'm laying the points. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10*. The Bucks got back on track with an impressive win at Indiana on Friday. They'll have both the venue and the schedule in their favor here. While the Bucks had the day off, the Pistons are off a big game at Toronto yesterday. Now, they're playing their third game in the past four days. While the Pistons are well below .500 on the road, the Bucks can get back to .500 at home with a win. With the Pistons at 2-7 SU/ATS their last nine when playing the second of b2b games, most recently a 21-point loss at Indiana, I'm laying the small number with the home team.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10*. This is an absolute "must win" game for the Hornets. I expect them to respond accordingly. Mired in a losing streak and with a lengthy road game on deck, the Hornets simply can't afford to lose to the 76ers. True, the 76ers have been much improved. However, they're still a team which is 7-18 on the road. The Hornets, now 16-12 at home, are just thinking about winning right now. However, they also haven't forgotten that the 76ers beat them (at Philadelphia) last month. When the teams met here at Charlotte, earlier in the season, the Hornets won by 16. That marked the seventh straight time that Charlotte has beaten the 76ers here. They won those seven games by an average of 13 points. With their backs to the wall, I expect the Hornets to bounce back and continue their homecourt dominance in this series. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE 10* PERS FAV. The Aztecs are going to be in a foul mood this afternoon. Not only are they coming off an upset loss at SJ State but they also haven't forgotten that the Wolfpack beat them by three points back in early January. Both those losses came on the road, however, where the Aztecs are now below .500. Here at home, they outscore teams by a commanding 75.2 to 62.9 margin. Nevada is having a strong season and is currently on top of the conference. The Aztecs are still the top defensive team in the Mountain West though and I believe they're favored for good reason. Expect them to bounce back big, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on NEW YORK 10* MAIN EVENT. With all due respect to the Spurs, who are very good regardless of venue, this is a lot of points. Consider that the Cavs were laying only four points here just a week ago. (Cleveland won by 7.) Admittedly, the Spurs are more consistent than the Cavs, on the road. However, in this particular situation, I don't feel that they should be laying roughly twice as many points. 

With back-to-back difficult road games on deck, the Knicks could badly use a win here. While they're only 1-4 in February, only one of those five games resulted in a loss of greater than eight points. Note that they're 5-2 ATS off an upset loss.

The Knicks have the next two days off and can go "all out" here. The Spurs, on the other hand, are in the middle of a lengthy road trip and play at Indiana tomorrow. I've learned not to rely on Popovich resting any starters - and won't be relying on him doing so today - but you never know. Either way, I expect a hungry Knicks team. 

The last meeting between these teams was at San Antonio. The Spurs were laying double-digits but only won by a single point. Look for this one to also prove closer than expected, the Knicks with a solid shot at the outright upset.

I'm playing on ST. MARY'S. With a #1 ranking and an undefeated record, Gonzaga is obviously having a great season. If they can get through today, it should be smooth sailing the rest of the way. Don't expect that to be easy though. While the Gaels haven't been as awesome as the Bulldogs, they've still been very good. In fact, they've won seven straight and they're 16-1 their last 17. The lone loss, during that span, was a blowout, at Gonzaga. Catching their rivals on their home floor and with a rare chance to earn a victory against a #1 seed, I expect the revenge-minded Gaels, who are allowing an average of just 48.6 ppg their last five games, to rise to the occasion. Look for them to earn AT LEAST the cover with an excellent shot at the upset. 

10* RIVALRY BLOWOUT, I'm playing on MSU. The Hawkeyes gave a great effort on Wednesday. It wasn't enough though. If you bet on them, it was a very bad beat. Getting +6.5 or +7 points, they lost by 12, in double-OT. While theyve since had a couple of days off, that loss still figures to take a toll on them today. The Spartans may not score as many as Iowa, but they've got the considerably better defense. The Hawkeyes are just 3-11-1 ATS their last 15, after having allowed 80 or more points. Meanwhile, the Spartans are 8-2 ATS their last 10 against teams which score 77 or more points per game. I'm going with the home team. 

10* PERS FAV, I'm playing on UCF. The Huskies won big when these teams played at UConn last month. Playing on their home floor, where they're 11-2 on the season, the Knights should return the favor. While the Huskies get outcored by an average score of 70.7 to 68.8 on the road, where they are 4-8, the Knights outscore teams by a commanding 71.1 to 56.6 margin here at Central Florida. While its no secret that the Huskies will be looking to push the pace, the Knights should be able to more effectively slow the tempo in their own buidling. UConn is 0-5 SU/ATS its last five as a road underdog in the +3.5 to +6 range. During that span, UCF is 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. Going back further finds the Knights at 14-8 ATS (20-2 SU) their last 22 in that role. I say, "its payback time." 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. The Hornets desperately need a win. They'd just dropped all three games on a West Coast road trip. They badly need to do something with this 4-game stretch at home, which they're now 1-1 on. Thats due in part because they're back on the road the day after Valentine's, a trip which includes a visit to take on these same Clippers. Though the Clippers are still tough with Griffin and co, they're not the same team without Paul. While the Clippers are 3-8 SU/ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points, the Hornets are 5-2 SU/ATS their last seven as home favorites of three or less. LA gets outscored on the road, Charlotte outscores teams by an average of more than three points on this floor. I expect a highly motivated effort and a win/cover for the home team. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* PERS FAV. With a victory here, the Bucks can climb back over the .500 mark, at home. Facing a Laker team which gets outscored by a 112.2 to 100.4 margin on the road should provide them the perfect opportunity. The Lakers are 8-40 SU and 19-28-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. During that span the Bucks are 13-7-1 ATS (14-7 SU) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The Bucks, already 3-0 ATS against Pacific division teams and 10-6 ATS against the west overall, won by seven when they hosted the Lakers last February, a game they were laying -9 for. They're laying a lot less than that here and I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Bucks bounce back big. 

I'm playing on PENNSLYVANIA 10* PERS FAV. It might seem funny to see the Quakers laying points, as they're still winless in conference play. However, I believe that they're favored for good reason. The next two games (this one and Cornell, which is on deck) are critical for this team, particularly this one.

Even Penn coach Donahue had to acknowledge: "In terms of making the tournament, I think both of the games this weekend are must-win. When you play at home against teams in front of you in the standings, you just can't keep losing."

Yes, the Quakers have dropped three straight. However, two of those were on the road and the other was against Princeton, the top team in the conference. While still not "easy," Columbia isn't quite in that class. The Quakers are 9-4 ATS off three or more consecutive losses the past 2+ seasons. I expect them to bounce back and take this critical game, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on UCLA 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Bruins are going to be in an angry mood. Not only did they lose their last game on this floor - their only home loss of the season - but they also lost by two points, at Oregon, on 12/28. Including that result, the Ducks are a perfect 15-0 as the home team. However, they've tasted defeat three times when playing away from home. While the Ducks average 71.9 ppg on the road, the Bruins average a whopping 97 ppg here at home. The Bruins also haven't forgotten that the Ducks defeated them here last season. They've only played one other game, on this floor, this season when the O/U line was in the 160s. The Bruins won that one by 40 points. They need this game to stay in the Pac-12 hunt and I expect them to get it, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* MAIN EVENT. Speculating that the Cavs may rest one or more stars, I released this play basically as soon as the lines became available. As of this writeup, its still unclear which Cleveland stars, if any, will be rested. However, it now appears likely to happen. (Some of the DFS sites are currently suggesting that "The Big 3" are likely to all rest.) Either way, I like the Thunder to come up with a big win tonight. While Cleveland was busy battling Indiana last night, the Thunder had the night off. The Cavs just beat them by 16, at Cleveland, less than two weeks ago and they'll be anxious to avenge that 1/29 loss. While the Cavs have been pretty mediocre (14-10 after last night's win) on the road, the Thunder are an impressive 18-7 here at OKC. They're 12-7 ATS their last 19 when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. Playing on National TV, I expect them to serve up a healthy dose of "payback" here. 

*Important Update: As expected, the Cavs have indeed elected to rest their stars. Naturally, the line has jumped significantly, as this has now turned into a mismatch. I'm expecting a double-digit OKC win and am comfortable laying as much as -10. If the line goes higher than that, this becomes a no play. 

I'm playing on UC IRVINE 10* PERS FAV. The Anteaters already won by four at Santa Barbara. Now they'll face a rebuilding Gauchos team which is even more banged-up now than it was then and which is 0-11 when playing away from home. Normally, the Gauchos might have a shot at hanging around and covering the big number. However, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off three straight losses, the Anteaters are going to be furious and looking to take out their anger on someone. A couple of weeks ago, the Big West was looking like it belonged to them. Now, they've squandered their lead. Expect them to play with anger. The Anteaters outscored teams by a 77.9 to 62.2 margin at home. Conversely, the Gauchos get outscored by a 79.4 to 62.4 margin on the road. It all adds up to a blowout. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Heat beat me last time out and are obviously "red hot." That won't prevent me from going against them here though. The Bucks got back on track last time out, delivering a convinging 25-point blowout win. They're a "streaky" team. That win gives them some much needed confidence and positive momentum and has them streaking in the right direction. 

Having just wrapped up a 3-game road trip, its worth mentioning that the Bucks are 3-0 SU/ATS after having played their previous three on the road, a profitable 13-6 ATS in that situation the past 2+ seasons. 

While both are about 50/50 at home, both these teams struggle to win on the road. The Heat are 13-13 at Miami but only 9-17 on the road. The Bucks are 9-16 on the road but 13-13 here at Milwaukee.  

This season, the Bucks average 109.5 ppg here at Milwaukee. By comparison, the Heat average just 97.4 ppg away from Miami. Given those stats, its not surprising that the home team has won and covered all three meetings this season.

The Heat won by 23 and 12 points at Miami but the Bucks won by eight here at Milwaukee. They were laying -7.5 for that game. Now, less than a month later, due to Miami's hot streak, we're getting the Bucks at a much lower line. I believe thats providing us with excellent value and I'm expecting homecourt to again prove the difference.

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE 10* ANNIHILATOR. This one should get ugly. Off a bizarre OT loss vs. VCU, the Bonnies are going to be in a foul mood. Note that they're already 2-0-1 ATS (3-0 SU) off a loss in conference play this season, including a road win at Duquesne and double-digit wins against Fordham and a strong George Mason team. They beat Fordham by 20, a team arguably stronger than St. Louis. The Bonnies already won by 19 on the Billikens' home floor and the Billikens are just 1-8 away from St. Louis. With the Billikens, who are 0-4 ATS (0-5 SU) their last five against teams which average 77 or more ppg, averaging only 55.9 ppg on the road and the Bonnies averaging 83.6 ppg here at home, I see this one going only one way. 

I'm playing on MARQUETTE 10* GAME OF YEAR. The Golden Eagles have had this one circled and they'll have payback on their minds. You may recall that they blew an 18-point halftime lead in a January game at Hinkle Fieldhouse. 

Marquette's Andrew Rowsey was quoted as saying: "... we owe them something from last time we played at Hinkle."

While I respect the Bulldogs, I believe that the Eagles are catching them at the right time. While the Eagles are off a confidence-building double-digit win, the Bulldogs check in off back-to-back home losses. 

While Butler has outscored teams by a modest 72-69 margin on the road, Marquette has dominated teams by a 85.5 to 69.8 average score in going 11-2 at home. 

While it may change throughout the day, as of this writing, the O/U line is 154. I mention that as Marquette is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS its last six home games, with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. Meanwhile, Butler is 0-4 ATS its last four on the road, when the O/U line was in the 150 to 154.5 range. 

While the Bulldogs destroyed them at Butler last season, the Eagles won the game (by 6) here at Marquette. Look for homecourt to again prove the difference, revenge-minded Marquette settling the score. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* MAIN EVENT. I think that this one's going to get ugly. The Magic lost by 27 last time out. They allow over 108 ppg on the road, allowing host teams to connect on 46.6% of their shots. Now, they'll travel to Houston to face a well-rested Rockets which averages nearly 115 ppg here and which hits better than 46% of its field goals here. The Rockets have alternated wins and losses for a few weeks now and haven't actually recorded back-to-back wins for nearly a month. I believe that they're going to be highly motivated to finally string together victories. Having had the past three days off and with no game on deck tomorrow, there's no reason not to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. While the line may seem steep, note that the Rockets are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) when listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. They're also 17-7 ATS (21-3 SU) against teams with a losing record. I expect them to put up a big number and don't believe that the Magic will be able to keep up. 

I'm playing on MONMOUTH. The Hawks took all three meetings with the Broncs last season, one of those coming in the quarterfinals of the MAAC Tournament. This season, the Hawks are again dominating the MAAC.They're currently 19-5 on the season, an impressive 11-1 on their home floor. Their lone home loss came at the hands of these same Broncs, as Rider scored a major upset against them on New Year's Eve. A closer look reveals that the Hawks were still licking their wounds from a blowout loss at UNC a few days earlier. The UNC loss, combined with the fact that it was New Year's Eve, seemed to result in a lack of focus from Monmouth in the first meeting. This time, however, the Broncs should have the Riders' full attention. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* MAIN EVENT. Some might be surprised to find me on the Falcons, after I successfully backed the Patriots in their victory over the Steelers. However, I believe this Atlanta team is the real deal and that its peaking at the right time. 

While everyone knows about Brady and co, many haven't had much of a chance to get to know the Falcons. This is not the same Atlanta team from recent seasons. Its not even the same Atlanta team from earlier this season.  This team is absolutely firing on all cylinders right now. 

In case you didn't see the game,  the Falcons didn't just beat Green Bay. They destroyed the Packers. Ryan, the likely league MVP, is playing as well as he ever has. Jones is an absolute beast and the running game is clicking. Meanwhile, the defense is currently far better than advertised. 

Yes, the receivers dropped a few. However, the Falcon defense made Rodgers and the Packer offense look decidedly ordinary. Keep in mind that Green Bay had been virtually unstoppable for weeks. 

Its true that Brady is one of the greatest of all time. Obviously, he's going to really want this one. This is a chance to further cement his legacy. I don't think he wants it any more than Ryan or the Falcons though. Ryan has tolled his career for this opportunity. The Atlanta fans are desperate for a championship and this is a team which desperately wants to give them one.

 I'm well aware that Atlanta sports teams have struggled in championship games over the years. None of those teams were this year's Falcons though. So, its hardly fair to paint them with the same brush. After all, the Cubs didn't let all their negative history prevent them from winning the World Series. When its all said and done, I expect Ryan, Jones and co. to finish on top.

I'm playing on CAL 10* PAC 12 GAME OF YEAR. The home team won and covered both meetings in this series last season. The Buffaloes won by eight at Colorado. The Bears won by 14 here at Cal. I expect homecourt to again make the difference this afternoon. 

The Bears are just 3-4 when playing away from home. However, they're 13-2 here on their home floor. Playing dominant defense here, they've outscored teams by an average score of 71.9 to 59.9. Visiting teams connect on a mere 37.8% of their field goals here. 

On the other hand, the Buffaloes allow more than 76 ppg on the road, where they're just 4-7. While they won 81-74 at Stanford last time out, the Buffaloes have yet to win back-to-back road games and are just 2-6 ATS after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. I'm backing the Bears. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* GAME OF YEAR. After losing three straight, the Thunder got back on track in a big way last time out. They defeated Memphis by 12 points on Friday. They're now just 12-15 on the road but an impressive 17-7 here at home. 

Like the Thunder, the Blazers have long been much better on their home floor. Having recently been at the Moda Center watching basketall, I can attest that is still the case. At Portland, the Blazers can compete with any team. They're 14-11 overall in games there. Games on the road have been a different story. Indeed, the Blazers are only 8-18 when playing away from the Moda Center. That included a 5-15 SU and 7-13 ATS record when playing a road game when the O/U line was listed at 210 or greater. 

The recent OKC losses were "excusable." Two were at difficult road venues, games at San Antonio and Cleveland and the other was a home game which was in a back-to-back spot. After this game, the Blazers play two of their next four on the road (at Indiana and at Washington) and their two home games come against Cleveland and against Golden State. In other words, all four of those games will likely be challenging. Armed with this knowledge, the Thunder know they need to take care of business, at home, this afternoon. 

Added incentive stems from the fact that the Blazers hammered the Thunder in this season's only meeting, a 114-95 blowout at the Moda Center in mid-December. They're a solid 10-7 ATS their last 17 in the 'revenge role.'

The last meeting between these teams here at OKC was an entirely different story. Laying -8 points, the Thunder won by 34. In fact, the Thunder are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three home games in this series. All three victories came by double-digits. 

Given the situation, schedule and venue and given the fact that the Thunder are 7-1 SU/ATS when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, I believe this line could easily be higher. Look for OKC to avenge the December loss, contining its homecourt dominance in this series. *GOY

I'm playing on VILLANOVA 10* GAME OF MONTH. At first glance, some might find this line to be a little. However, a closer look reveals that it could easily be higher. Keep in mind that the Wildcats were favored by 27 when they hosted St. John's last February. Also, note that the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -15.5 to -18 range. So, they've been "comfortable" in this role. 

Off a few close games, I believe that the Wildcats will be motivated to flex their muscles with a blowout win and that they'll keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. St. John's lost by 28 at Georgetown, one of four straight double-digit losses in January. So, the Red Storm are susceptible to a big loss. They're 0-2 SU/ATS the last couple of seasons, when listed as road underdogs in the 15.5 to 18 range. 

Including a 13-point win at MSG earlier, the Cats have beaten the Red Storm 13 straight times. Jay Wright said after the Providence win that "we still have a lot of work to do." Look for him to have his team ready to go from the opening tip and for them to ultimately pull away for a 20+ point blowout win.

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. The road team has won both meetings this season but the home team should have the edge here. The Magic are off an upset win against the Raptors yesterday and playing their third game already in February. Ibaka and Fournier both played 35+ hard-fought minutes. They're just 4-7 ATS (1-10 SU) when coming off an "upset" win. Like the Magic, the Hawks are off an upset win, as they won at Houston last time out. Unlike the Magic, they've had a day off in between games. While the Magic are 11-16 on the road, the Hawks are 14-10 at home. Look for the homecourt and scheduling advantage to lead to a win and cover for the Hawks. 

I'm playing on GEORGETOWN 10* BREAKFAST CLUB. Off three straight wins, the Hoyas are arguably playing their best basketball of the season. However, next up is a road game against the national champs. Thats followed by Marquette and another difficult road game, this time at Creighton. So, they've got some tough games in their immediate future. Later, this month, they'll take on these same Pirates, at Seton Hall. That all means that they absolutely need to take care of business at home this afternoon. Facing a struggling Seton Hall team which has lost five of six, the lone win coming home at home against St. John's, I expect the Hoyas to do just that. The Pirates, who are off an emotional 2-point loss at Xavier, are already 0-2 SU/ATS when playing a true road game after also playing on the road in their last game. Overall, they're 0-5 on the road since Christmas. Homecourt makes the difference, the Hoyas covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on BYU 10* MAIN EVENT. You'll hear a lot of talk about BYU's Nick Emery getting sent home from practice with an illness. Needless to say, thats not ideal. However, with or without him, I believe that the Cougars are going to be ready to play tonight. 

Obviously, the Bulldogs are having a remarkable season. They're a great team and they'll be tough to beat. Anywhere. Against anyone. They like to run though and the Cougars to do too. In front of thousands of their screaming fans, I expect the Cougars to be one of the few teams capable of keeping up. BYU is averaging 86.9 ppg here while Gonzaga is averaging 83 on the road. 

While its possible this total will close in the 150s, I'll still note that the Cougars are a perfect 11-0 SU and 7-3-1 ATS their last 11 when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 160s. During that span, they're also 7-3-1 ATS when playing a team which averages 77 or more points, after 15 or more games of the season. They don't mind a quick tempo.

Coach Rose, going for his #300th win, likes the mood of his team and had this to say: "I think that you can visually see from the guys, just the last couple of days, the excitement and the opportunity they feel. I think that any time you play a team in the top 25, but especially in the top 10, that it brings a real kind of national relevance to the game. I think our guys are excited about that." Look for Rose to have them ready to play as the Bulldogs, who would probably benefit from a closer game, finally get challenged. 

I'm playing on SA 10* PERS FAV. The 76ers are an improved team (from recent seasons) and they had a nice run in January. However, a tough recent schedule has caught up with them. They couldn't keep up at Dallas last night (lost by 18) and things don't get any easier tonight. 

In addition to having to play back-to-back games, this will mark the 76ers' fourth game in the past five days and their seventh game in the past 10 days, a grueling stretch which occurred due to them having to play a make-up game against Sacramento on 1/30. 

While its always possible that Popovich could rest someone, the Spurs have no reason to do so. They had last night off and they have tomorrow off. Either way, it shouldn't matter. Having lost two of their last three, the Spurs aren't going to take any team for granted. The last time they faced the 76ers? A 51-point destruction. 

The Spurs did follow up their two losses with a 14-point win over OKC last time out. They're 6-0 SU/ATS against Atlantic teams and 13-6 SU/ATS off a double-digit win. Given the scheduling, talent and coaching advantage, this one should result in another rout. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* GAME OF WEEK. These teams will meet again on 2/21, at Oakland. However, the Grizzlies will be double-digit favorites for that one. Here, we're getting them at a more reasonable number. While that might still seem like a lot, this is a team which has thrived on the road in recent seasons. In fact, the Grizzlies are 26-11-1 ATS in road lined games, the past 2+ seasons. 

When the Grizzlies win, they tend to win by a fairly comfortable margin. Nine of their last 11 victories, including each of their past two, have come by a minimum of nine points. 

While the Grizzlies have been profitable on the road, the Penguins are just 8-19 ATS (and SU) in home lined games the past 2+ seasons, 2-6 ATS so far this season. Yes, the Penguins won last game. However, that doesn't usually mean much to them, as they're already 0-3 SU/ATS off a conference win, 3-8 ATS (1-10 SU) their last 11 in that situation. 

Last season, almost exactly one year ago to the day, the Grizzlies were laying -12.5 points when they visited here. They won by 22. The previous year, almost exactly two years ago to the day, laying only -3 points when they visited here, the Grizzlies won by 16. 

The Grizzlies have been money when failing to cover three in a row, most recently winning by nine at Northern Kentucky. I'm expecting another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* BEST BET. Some will take a look one look at the matchup, see the low line and assume that the Clippers are a bargain. They're not the same team without Paul (out for at least another few weeks) running the show though and I believe this one sets up well for the home team. 

Paul went down on 1/18. At the time, LA was on a 7-game win streak, covering six of those game. Since then? A 1-4 SU/ATS record. Part of that is due to the fact that they were playing at home during the winning streak and on the road during the slump. However, the injury to Paul is obviously significant.

Tonight, the Clippers are playing the final leg of a road trip. With Golden State on deck tomorrow night, it should be easy to look past the Suns, who they've already beaten by double-digits twice this season. 

Those earlier results should provide Phoenix with plenty of extra motivation here. Unlike the Clippers, the Suns have tomorrow night off. They're 11-6 ATS off a double-digit loss; I expect them to bounce back with at least another cover here. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. *10* GAME OF WEEK. Both teams have been much better of late. The 76ers survived a monster game from Cousins to score a minor upset over Sacramento on Monday. They're now a lucrative 13-3 ATS their last 16 games. At 8-2 ATS their last 10, the Mavs have been every bit as profitable the past few weeks. The Mavs' recent wins have also arguably been far more impressive. Last time out, the Mavs beat Cleveland. The previous night, they beat the Spurs, at San Antonio. How many teams can say that they've beaten both the Cavs and Spurs in a two-day span? Since then, they've had a day off. Unlike the 76ers, who will play at San Antonio tomorrow, the Mavs also get tomorrow off. 

While the 76ers are still just 6-14 on the road, tonight's game offer the Mavs a chance to get back to .500 at home. They're 6-1 ATS their last seven against teams which average 99 or more points per game (Philly now averages 100.9) and they're 5-1 ATS on the season, when laying points. They beat the 76ers by 26 points last year; I expect them to keep on rolling with another double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on CLEMSON 10* PERS FAV. The Tigers are in need of a big win and the Yellow Jackets should provide them the perfect opportunity. While Georgia Tech averages 63.9 ppg on the road, Clemson averages 81.2. ppg at home. Clemson connects on better than 47% of its shots here. GT hits only 41% of its fg's on the road. The Tigers also have the edge on the other side of the ball. They allow 67.2 ppg here as compared to the 75.9 ppg which GT allows on the road. The Tigers, who will be looking to avenge a January loss at GT, won by 14 the last time that these teams met on this floor. The gap between the teams is arguably bigger now than it was then and I'm expecting another double-digit win.

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* PERS FAV. The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in four straight games, losing three of those outright. This should be an excellent spot for them to break through with a big "blowout" win. 

The Rockets are in one of their best roles here. In fact, they're a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Note that they're also 28-18 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a double-digit loss. 

This is a very difficult scheduling spot for the Kings. Not only are they playing their second game in two days, they're also playing their fourth road game in the past five days. Yesterday's loss, a make-up from an earlier postponed game, was a difficult one, too. The Kings blew a double-digit lead and had to fight hard the entire way. Cousins had a huge game but it wasn't enough, the Kings' star eventually fouling out. 

The Rockets have won both of this season's meetings with the Kings by double-digits. They won those games by an average of 23.5 points. I'm expecting this one to also "turn ugly."

I'm playing on OHIO STATE 10* PERS FAV. While I successfully played against the Buckeyes in their last game, I expect them to bounce back with an important win here. While the Buckeyes are now just 2-6 away from home, they're a much better team on their home floor. Off a win against Minnesota in their last game here, they're 11-3 when playing at home. All three of those losses came by two points or less, too. So, they could easily be even better here. Knowing that they'll be visiting Maryland in less than two weeks should add some urgency, as they know they need to hold serve at home. Needless to say, they could really use a victory against a ranked opponent. Its true that the Terps are having an outstanding season and also that they remain undefeated on the road. However, they're in the middle of a stretch which sees them play five of seven away from home. This will mark their fourth road game in the past five. Wtih a showdown vs. Purdue on deck, I expect it to catch up with them here. Coach Matta had this to say: "We have to play our best basketball Tuesday night. To quote Jim Tressel a few years ago, we have to be better than we are." Look for the Buckeyes to do just that, getting back on track with a much-needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* MAIN EVENT. A loss against the Nuggets in their last game notwithstanding, the Suns have been playing quite well lately. They're now 10-4-1 ATS their last 15 games. I believe that they're offering excellent value as a home underdog this evening. The Grizzlies are only a .500 team on the road, where they get outscored by a 104.4 to 102.5 average margin. 

One might expect the Grizzlies to fare well against "defensively-challenged" teams like the Suns. However, they're actually only 15-20 ATS against teams which allow 99 or more ppg including 0-3 ATS their last three. On the season, they're 0-3 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. In fact, they're 0-7 ATS (1-6 SU) their last seven in that situation. 

Meanwhile the Suns are 2-0 ATS on the season, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 205 to 209.5 range. They're 18-11 ATS in that situation the past couple of seasons. 

Knowing that they're going to face the Grizzlies, at Memphis, in a week, the Suns should be extremely motivated to "hold serve" here. With the Suns also a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they were off an "upset loss," I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. Admittedly, the 76ers have been playing rather well of late. I'm still not ready to call them a great team though. The Bulls are off b2b losses and they've got a difficult 6-game West Coast road trip on deck. In other words, they absolutely need to stop the bleeding here. I expect them to do just that. The Bulls beat the 76ers by 16 (at Philly) in this season's only previous meeting. The last meeting here at Chicago also resulted in a double-digit win for the Bulls. Normally, the 76ers would have had tomorrow off. However, they have a make-up game to play against Sacramento. That means that they'll rest Joel Embiid as they'd rather have him ready for the home game. Look for a "desperate" Bulls team to take advantage. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* ANNHILATOR. While they blew the cover in the fourth quarter, the Cavs bounced back with a much needed win last time out. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this afternoon's game. While the Thunder have won a few in a row, those opponents weren't in the same class as the defending champs. For the season, the Thunder are just 7-10 ATS when getting points. Overall, they're 12-13 on the road while the Cavs are 20-5 at home. The Cavs still outscore teams by more than nine ppg here at home while the Thunder still get outscored by nearly five ppg on the road. Look for Lebron and co. to put it all together for the full four quarters, improving to 5-2-1 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* BREAKFAST CLUB. The Grizzlies are off back-to-back losses and thats going to have them in a foul mood here. This is the third time that they were off b2b losses. Each of the previous two times they responded with a win and cover. They also haven't forgotten that Milwaukee beat them here last season. I believe that they've got a considerable talent edge (Milw averages 64.9 ppg on the road, Oakland averages 81.6 ppg at home) and expect them to improve to a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the last five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. 

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. Off a loss at Marquette, the well-coached Wildcats figure to be an angry team here. The only previous time that they lost this season, they responded with a win and cover, winning by 12 points. That brings them to 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when off a conference loss. With the Cavs just 7-17-1 ATS their last 25 against teams from the Big East, I'm laying the relatively small number with the champs.