Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* GOM. I successfully played against the Lakers in their last game. Favored against the Mavs, the young Lakers got blown out, losing by 12 points. Their 'winning streak' snapped, I look for the Lakers to struggle again tonight. The Kings come in healthy and off back-to-back wins. They got Collison back from an 8-game suspension last time out and he gave them 28 minutes. While he didn't start that game and may not again tonight, he makes their backcourt significantly stronger. Of course, Cousins is the straw that stirs the drink, as he does it all for this team. The Kings beat the Lakers all four games last season and Cousins led the way. In those four games, the Kings' star averaged 27.0 points, 11.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.0 blocks, all while shooting better than 50% (50.8%) from the field and hitting 83.3% from the line.

Last game was the first time that the Kings were really favored all season, as they've had a fairly difficult opening schedule. Their first game was on the road. Then, they hosted the Spurs for their home opener. They won a pick'em game against the T-Wolves in their next game here and that was followed by a 5-game road trip. They struggled on the trip but closed it out with a win at Toronto, which is no small feat. Finally, they got an 'easier' game, as they returned home to host the Pelicans. They took care of business in that one, winning by eight. That means that they're 2-1 at home with the lone loss coming against San Antonio. Needless to say, while they do have some quality young players, the Lakers, who are 1-3 on the road, aren't in the class of the Spurs and they still don't have an answer for the Kings' big man. Look for Cousins and co. to take advantage of the winnable game, improving to 9-6-1 (11-5 SU) the last 2+ seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 8* MAIN EVENT. Lebron and co. brought the city a championship. The Indians came up short but are still heroes. The Browns continue to let Cleveland down. Admittedly, they have been pretty bad. This is a "big game" for them though. Not only are the Ravens a hated rival - remember the Browns once reloacted to Baltimore - but this is a chance to show the world, on National TV, that they're not as bad as their record suggests. The Ravens only average 19.2 points per game, just 17.7 here at Baltimore. Needless to say, that makes covering a big number like this one difficult. Note that the Ravens are just 8-14-3 ATS the last 25 times that they were laying points. The Browns actually average more points (and yards) on the road than the Ravens do at home. They're averaging 19.4 ppg and 358 ypg when playing away from Baltimore. The Browns always seem to get up for the Ravens and they played them tough again in both meetings last season, both those games being decided by six or fewer points. In fact, that makes it 10 straight games in this series which were decided by 10 or fewer points, seven of those decided by a TD or less. Throw in the fact that the Ravens have yet to win a game by more than a TD this season and I'm grabbing all those generous points. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN 10* PERS FAV. The Eagles broke through with a "cover" at Ole Miss last week, putting up more than 400 yards of offense. Returning home and stepping down in class, for a game which they badly need to win, I expect them to follow it up with a blowout win. I say that the Eagles "badly" need the game as they're 4-5 at the moment and need wins to have a shot at a bowl. Their next game is on the road and their final game is against Troy, a team which has currently won six straight. In other words, they need to take advantage here. The Cajuns aren't that good these days and are headed towards a second straight losing season. They've dropped four of their last five, the last two of those losses coming by double-digits. The lone win came vs. Texas State, the worst team in the conference. The fact that both teams are on a short week figures to favor the home team. In my opinion, the Eagles are stronger on both sides of the ball. They're healthier and I expect them to also be hungrier. I'm expecting a double-digit win.

I'm playing on NORTHERN ILLINOIS 10* MAC ATTACK. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have been decided by seven points or less, Northern Illinois winning all five. While its Toledo which is favored this time round, I'm expecting another close one. With this game being played on the South Side of Chicago, the Rockets will be playing the second of b2b games away from home. They failed to cover the only other time that they were in that situation this season, a non-cover at Eastern Michigan on 10.8. The Huskies got off to a slow start but have turned their season around. The Huskies are averaging 39 ppg their last three games, compared to the Rockets' 35 over their last three. While Toledo is fighting to try and catch Western Michigan, NIU is fighting to stay its bowl hopes alive. I'm grabbing the generous points. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO 10* PERS FAV. While the T-Wolves certainly have some talented players, they're in a bit of a funk at the moment. Last night, they lost at Brooklyn. That dropped them to 0-3 SU/ATS their last three and 1-5 SU/ATS on the season. They have yet to win on the road. Given that poor start and the fact that they're in a back-to-back spot, one might expect the T-Wolves to be a bigger underdog. The Magic don't get much respect though and thats kept this line relatively low. Note that Orlando is 7-3 ATS the last 10 times it was favored at home by three or fewer points. The Magic have won back-to-back games on this floor. They're 2-1 SU/ATS here on the season In last season's game against the T-Wolves here, they erased a double-digit halftime defiicit to win by three. Later, they'd go on to also win by three at Minnesota. While they failed to cover in the first of those, as they were favored by five, the Magic are a healthy 15-5 ATS their last 20 against teams from the Northwest, 37-23-1 ATS their last 61 against teams from the West overall. I like the addition of Ibaka to this Magic team, combining with the likes of Vucevic and Gordon. All three are averaging double-digits in points thus far, while Fournier leads the team with 17.4 ppg. With the schedule and venue in their favor and catching their guests in a slump, I look for the Magic to win their sixth straight in this series, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DALLAS 10* BEST BET. The Lakers have been a profitable team at the betting window thus far and they enter tonight's game on a nice roll. I successfully played on them in their only 'non-cover' (blowout loss at OKC on 10/30) though and I feel that this will be a good spot to go against them once again. Note that LA remains a poor 3-7 ATS (2-8 SU) the last 10 times that it was off a double-digit win. During that stretch, the Lakers were also 0-3 SU/ATS after winning their previous three games. 'It wasn't easy but the Mavs got themselves on track last time out, earning an 86-75 victory over the Bucks. One wouldn't know it by the final score but that game went to OT, the Mavs dominating once they got there. With the monkey (of getting their first win) off their back, I expect the Mavs to build some positive momentum from that effort. Even without Dirk, they're the more experienced team in this matchup. They've dominated the Lakers in recent seasons and I expect them to give them all they can handle once again tonight. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS 10* PERS FAV. While the Nuggets come in as the hotter team, I like how this one sets up for the Grizzlies. Memphis started the season dealing with a number of injuries but is now starting to get healthier. Last time out, Chandler Parsons made his season debut for the Grizzlies. While he admittedly didn't shoot well (0 for 8!) he's now got a game under his belt and will make this team stronger, even if minutes are limited a little at first. Playing the final game of a 4-game home-stretch and off b2b losses, the Grizzlies badly want to bounce back and salvage the split of the four games. Note that they're 14-10-2 ATS (16-10 SU) the past couple of seasons, off an 'upset' loss. Opposite of the Grizzlies, the Nuggets are playing the final leg of a road trip. They're just 6-12-3 ATS the last 21 times that they played their previous three on the road. Off their upset win at Boston, it wouldn't be a stretch for them to get caught looking ahead to Thursday's home showdown vs. the Warriors. The Grizzlies are 16-2 SU (11-7 ATS) the last 18 times that they played their previous three or more games at home. I expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE 10* BEST BET. This is a very big game for both teams. Eastern Michigan badly wants a victory, as one more would make them bowl eligible. Off back-to-back losses, losers of three of their last four and playing their regular season home finale, the Cardinals should also be extremely hungry. I expect them to have the advantage against an Eastern Michigan team which is coming off two consecutive losses of its own. While the Eagles gained 33 yards on the ground last time out, the third time in four games they ran for less than 90 yards, the Cards have run for more than 250 yards on the ground in each of their last three games, 298, 256 and 356. The Cards have owned the Eagles over the years. With an edge on the ground and the venue in their favor, I'm expecting more of the same Tuesday night.

I'm playing on DALLAS 10* MAIN EVENT. I successfully played against the Mavs in their first game of the season, a 130-121 loss at Indiana. The Mavs played relatively well in that game, as they took a tough Pacers team to OT. Losing in OT to start the season seemed to take a toll though, as did four straight games against teams from the West. Indeed, the Mavs enter today's game with an 0-5 record and now playing without Dirk. They finally get to "host" an Eastern Conf. team though. In fact, this is the first time that the Mavs have actually been favored in a game. Knowing that opportunities like this one may be few and far between and desperate for their first win, I expect the Mavs to give us a highly motivated effort. The home team won both games last season; the Bucks won by one at Milawaukee but the Mavs won by 10 here at Dallas. Look for them to rise to the occasion with another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on SF 10* BEST BET. Its true that the 49ers have been pretty bad of late. Its also true that they've cost me a couple of times. That said, I look at each game/team on a game-by-game basis, without bias. After doing so, I believe that that the 49ers are offering us excellent value this week. The Saints aren't the same team on the road. They've won only one road game and that win came by a single point. They only average 23 points on the road and they're an ugly 1-8 ATS that they were favored in the -3.5 to -9.5 range, including an 0-2 ATS mark on the road in that -3.5 to -7.5 range. While the Saints are off a hard-fought win over Seattle, the 49ers are well-rested, coming off a bye. I believe it came at the right time and I look for them to step up with at least a cover. 

I'm playing on NY 10* DIV GAME OF MONTH. This is a huge game in the NFC East. History would suggest that the Eagles might have the advantage. After all, they swept the Giants last season and have had plenty of success here in recent seasons. That history has worked to our advantage here, in my opinion. Despite the fact that these teams are currently going in opposite directions, we're able to get the Giants at a very reasonable number. Off b2b wins, the Giants bring some positive momentum into Sunday's game. The Eagles are off a hard-fought OT loss against Dallas and have now dropped three or four. While its true that the Eagles have fared well off a divisional setback the past couple of seasons, those "type" of losses can be difficult to bounce back from. When I say "those type of games," I'm referring to the fact that last week's was a game in which the Eagles had outplayed the Cowboys (most of the way) and in which they held a 10-point fourth quarter lead. To blow that type of game against a hated rival figures to be difficult to bounce back from. A look at the numbers shows that the Giants are outgaining opponents by a 436.3 to 360.7 margin when listed as the home team while the Eagles are being outgained by a 370.2 to 289 margin on the road. After the Eagles started out hot, there were some comparisons of Wentz to Peyton Manning. While those comparisons have mostly stopped lately, I look for brother Eli to get the better of the rookie here. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE 10* GOW. While the Buckeyes are off four straight pointspread losses, I expect them to break out with a big win and cover Saturday evening. The Huskers had hoped to come into this game with an undefeated record. However, they lost at Wisconsin (in OT) last week, their first setback of the season. Losing the first game, for a team which had dreams (even if those dreams were unrealistic) of an undefeated season can be difficult to bounce back from. The Buckeyes can attest to that fact. After getting upset at Penn State a couple of games ago, they struggled to "get up" for Northwestern last game, winning by only four. They did win though and now can move forward. I believe they're ready for a break-through performance while the Huskers, playing their second straight road game, may still be thinking about "what could have been." The Buckeyes are more skilled and have more depth. Look for Meyer to have them ready to deliver a blowout. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. Off back-to-back losses, if history is any indication, the Bulldogs figure to be a dangerous team. Indeed, they're 16-5 ATS (19-2 SU) the last 21 times that they were off b2b losses. During the same stretch, they're 12-4 SU/ATS as a road favorite of three or fewer points and 19-6 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 49.5 to 56 range. During that period, Kentucky was an ugly 4-9 ATS as a home underdog of three or fewer points. The Bulldogs dominated Kentucky last season, as they did the year before. I still believe they're the stronger team and I expect them to demonstrate that Sat. evening. 

I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. Some of you will recall that I successfully played against the Pistons in their last game. That was a tough spot for them though. Not only were they on the road but they were coming off a big win over the Knicks the previous night and playing their third game in the past four nights. I thought fatigue might be a factor, and it was. That won't be the case tonight, however, as the Pistons have had the past two days off. They're also back home, where they're a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS on the season. Its true that the Nuggets are playing pretty well right now. They've split their first four games, covering three of them, with all four games being competitive. This is already their fourth road game through their first five games though and it represents the middle games of their current 5-game trip. While the Nuggets, 7-10-2 ATS their last 19 as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, did have last night off, they may be getting a little road weary already, all the close games taking a toll. Either way, they'll be taking on a Pistons team which has beaten every team by double-digits here. Though they lost last season, the Pistons have won 15 of the last 18 meetings with the Nuggets here. With the Pistons also at 21-6 ATS the last 27 times that they were off an "upset" loss, I'm laying the small number. 

I'm playing on K-STATE 10* BIG 12 GOM. I won with the Cowboys last Saturday, so am well aware that they're rolling right now. However, I expect that roll to come to an abrupt end on Saturday afternoon. While the Cowboys do indeed have a potent offense, the Cats arguably have one of the best defenses in the country. Despite playing in the high-scoring Big 12, the Cats are allowing a respectable 21.6 ppg and 362.2 ypg. Here at home, where the Cats are a perfect 4-0, they're allowing a mere 16.5 ppg and 300.2 ypg. That compares very favorably to the 27.5 ppg and 488.5 ypg that the Cowboys are allowing on the road this season. While the K-State offense may not be flashy, they still average 41.5 ppg here. While the Cowboys are 4-6-2 ATS on the road the past couple of years, the Cats are 11-6-1 ATS (14-4 SU) at home. The Cowboys won a close one (36-34) at Stillwater last season. However, the Wildcats hammered them when they last played here at Manhattan. In fact, they're 7-1 SU/ATS the last eight meetings here. I'm expecting more of the same here. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS 10* PERS FAV. The Pelicans are hungry for their first win and this should be an excellent spot to get it. While the Pelicans are 0-5, the Suns (1-4) haven't been much better. Give them credit for beating Portland last game. However, keep in mind that they were playing in Phoenix and that the Blazers were coming off a loss vs. the Warriors the previous night. The Suns are 0-2 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 114.5 to 104. The Pelicans are 24-15-2 ATS against Pacific Division teams the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 3-1 SU/ATS home record in games against the Suns. The lone Suns win (4/9) was a game where Davis (and a laundry list of others) didn't play and where the Pelicans were off an upset win the night before and playing their fourth game in five nights. Things set up much more favorably for the Pelicans this time. When they hosted the Suns last November, with Davis in the lineup, they beat them by six. Davis had an off-shooting night (until the 4th) and still finished with a 32/19 stat-line, to go along with four blocks and two steals. Look for him to "will" the Pelicans to another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on GS 10* MAIN EVENT. The Warriors dropped their first game of the season, a home loss against the Spurs Then, they won a couple of fairly close ones on the road. Last time out, however, they put it all together with a 23-point win at Portland. Returning home, where they're still searching for their first win, I expect them to build off the Portland win with another complete effort tonight. Obviously, both teams will want this one. The Thunder will want to beat their old teammate. Durant and co will feel the same way though and they're in a better spot to do so. Not only are they playing at home, where they're 7-1 SU/ATS their last eight against OKC, but they're also rested while the Thunder are off a hard-fought win against the Clippers last night. Note that OKC is just 4-9 ATS its last 13 off an "upset" win. With the Porltand win, the Warriors are now 30-2 SU and 21-11 ATS in November, the past 2+ seasons. I say Round 1 goes to KD, the Warriors earning the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN 10* BEST BET. While they got blown out by Chicago last time out, the Nets have played quite well to start the season. They're 3-1 ATS and that includes an outright win over the Pacers. This is a good spot for them and I expect the well-rested Nets to bounce back with a big effort. The Pistons played well last night, pulling away for a double-digit win over the Knicks. They're playing the second of b2b games here though as well as their third game in the past four and fourth in six. In this kind of spot, the injury to pointguard Jackson figures to prove more significant than it has thus far. Note that the Nets' lone road game resulted in an 18-point loss. This hasn't been a good role for the Pistons in recent seasons, as they're only 1-4 ATS their last five as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. (All four non-covers resulted in outright losses.) Its also worth noting, as the O/U line is currently in that range, that the Pistons are just 7-15 ATS their last 22 when playing on the road with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. The Nets beat the Pistons here last November, when listed as 5-point underdogs. Later in the season, they played them tough again here, covering as 7-point underdogs. I expect at least another cover tonight.

I'm playing on NY. Both teams are off road losses last night. While the Knicks admittedly seemed to "run out of gas" in the fourth quarter against the Pistons, the Rockets are arguably in a more difficult scheduling spot. Harden is being asked to do a lot in D'Antoni's offense and played 38 hard minutes against Lebron and co. last night. With all due respect to Detroit, I would argue that a game against the defending world champs is more "draining" than a game against the Pistons. The Knicks' scheduling advantage is more than that though. Prior to last night's loss, they'd had both the 30th and the 31st off. This is their fourth game of the season. The Rockets, on the other hand, have played an extra game and had to play on the 30th. So, while both teams are in a b2b spot, the Rockets are also playing their third game in four nights (and fourth in six) while the Knicks are not. They've also had to fly from the West Coast (first game was at LA) to the East already, while the Knicks have yet to leave the Eastern time zone. While the Rockets are 1-2 on the road, the Knicks are 1-0 at home. D'Antoni will obviously want a win at MSG but I believe he's going to have to wait for another day. NY wins. 

I'm playing on MIAMI 10* ANNIHILATOR. Since winning their opener at Orlando, the Heat have lost their first two home games. The first of those was winnable, as it came against Charlotte. They lost by six. The next was against San Antonio, always a tough matchup. The Heat lost by seven. Hungry for that first home win, the Heat step down in class to fact the Kings. The fact that they've also got a significant scheduling advantage figures to make matters easier. While the Heat had last night off, the Kings were busy playing at Atlanta. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, they'll be playing their fifth game in the past seven nights, a fairly grueling schedule right out of the gate. In other words, as both teams played their first game on 10/26, the Kings have squeezed an extra game into the same number of days while also flying from the West Coast to the East coast. Look for the Heat, who have yet to leave the state of Florida, to take advantage of the favorable schedule, sending the fans home with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. As you're probably aware, the Bears have really struggled this season. In fact, they've got just one win in seven tries. Meanwhile, the Vikings are an impressive 5-1 SU/ATS on the season. Those records alone may have some expecting a blowout win for the Vikes. After all, the Bears are essentially already "playing out the string" while Minnesota will be playoff bound, if it continues to win at its current pace. Winning on the road in the NFL is rarely easy though, particularly when being asked to beat a hated divisional opponent by a fairly wide margin. I expect the Bears to treat this one like its their "Super Bowl." This is a chance for them to show the world that they're not as bad as everyone believes them to be. While the Minnesota D is indeed formidable, the return of Cutler, who has only played two games, figures to provide a boost to the Bears' offense. Due to having played on a Thursday last time out - a game which saw them embarrassed on National TV - the Bears have had plenty of extra time to prepare for this one. The Vikings, who won by just three here last season after losing by eight the year before, are playing back-to-back road games for the first time this season. They finally came back down to earth last week and I expect them to have their hands full against a determind Bears team the entire way. Look for Cutler and co. to improve to 3-0 ATS the last three times that they played a game where the O/U line ranged from 35.5 to 42. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* PERS FAV. This game has some interesting storylines. Denver rookie Jamal Murray, who is from Kitchener, will be playing in Toronto for the first time. The game also features a pair of young centers who are both playing well, Valanciunas and Jokic. I believe that homecourt combined with the Raptors' superior backcourt will ultimately prove the difference though. The Raptors haven't forgotten that it was the Nuggets who snapped their 11-game winning streak last February 1, in Denver. Nor have they forgotten that the Nuggets also upset them 106-105 here at Toronto last December, a game where the Raptors were favored by 10 points. Denver entered that game on an 8-game skid. The Raptors got down double-digits early in that one and couldnt quite get all the way back. This is a well-coached team, one which nearly advanced to the NBA Finals last season. I look for a fully focus effort from Derozan, Lowry and co. as they pull away for a double-digit win, improving to 14-8 ATS (17-5 SU) their last 22 home games when the O/U line ranged from 200 to 204.5. 

I'm playing on OKC 10* GAME OF MONTH. The Lakers are 2-0 ATS while the Thunder are 0-2 ATS. Those ATS results have worked in our favor in helping to keep the line a little lower than it could have otherwise been. I believe that's providing us with excellent value on the superior team. This is expected to be a fairly high-scoring game (O/U line of 214) which generally doesn't suit the Lakers too well. They're just 4-21 SU and 9-15-1 ATS the last 25 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. (During the same stretch, the Thunder were 29-12 SU at home with an O/U line of 210 or greater.) That includes a 112-79 destruction the last time that the Lakers played here. The Thunder were laying -16.5 for that game. The previous meeting here, they were laying -16 and they won by 40. In fact, they've won the last four in the series by an average of 27.8. While Durant has moved on, I expect Westbrook and co. to deliver another double-digit win against a young Laker team. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA 10* PERS FAV. While I certainly respect the Cardinals, the Panthers have a lot going for them here. For starters, I believe that Carolina is a lot better than its (1-5) record suggests. The Panthers and their players believe that too. Unlike other teams with similar records, they still believe that they can run the table and make the playoffs. Playing in the AFC South helps. At 4-3, the Falcons are the only team in the division above .500. That said, the Panthers know that they're in "must win" territory. They can't afford another loss here. While the Panthers are off a bye, the Cards are off a Sunday night game up in the Pacific Northwest, a hard-fought battle that ended in a tie, one which came against their most hated division rival. Now, they travel across the country to play an early game against a rested and hungry Carolina team which is still 16-6 its last 22 here. Look for the Panthers to put it all together, improving to 7-1 SU/ATS their last eight as home favorites of -3 or fewer points. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK 10* PERS FAV. The Knicks are 0-1 while the Grizzlies are 1-0. The Grizzlies have dominated the Knicks in recent seasons. No brainer on Memphis? Not in my opinion. For starters, we can't take too much from just one game. The Knicks had a very tough opening assignment as their first game was at Cleveland. The Grizzlies had a much easier matchup - no offense to the T-Wolves, who do have some talent - as they were home against Minnesota. Also, in regards to games from recent seasons, both teams have made some changes. When healthy, as they are now, former bulls Rose and Noah figure to make the Knicks a much stronger team. Speaking of health, the Grizzlies are dealing with some early injury issues. Wright, Allen and Parsons are all out again. As a result, the tonight's (Memphis) starting lineup is likely to include Andrew Harrison, James Ennis and JaMychal Green. Those three had 24 combined starts between them, entering the season. Lastly, while both teams are well-rested, it shoud be noted that NY gets tomorrow night off while Memphis will host Washington. As a result, Memphis coach Fizdale reportedly already informed that Gasol and Conley, the only two starters with experience, may see their minutes limited. There's going to be a lot of energy in the building and I look for the Knicks to ride it to a win and cover. 

I'm playing on OREGON 10* BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK. For the first time in two decades, the Ducks have lost five straight. However, I expect this to be the week where they "get healthy" again. While the defense remains a concern, Oregon has found its QB; Justin Herbert threw six TD passes last game, the Ducks scoring 49 points. Sure, it resulted in a tough 52-49 loss, at Cal. The Ducks showed a lot of heart though, rallying from 21-0 and 34-14 deficits. As that was a Friday game, they've had an extra day to recover and prepare for this one. The Sun Devils, who are also "defensively-challenged" and who are also off b2b losses of their own, are banged-up on both sides of the ball, including at the QB position. Starting QB Manny Wilkins has been banged-up a lot and he got hurt again last game. While his status remains uncertain as of this writing, it appears entirely possible that he could miss the game. With their backup QB already out, that means inexperienced true freshman Sterling-Cole would get the call. Regardless of who is behind center for the Sun Devils, it looks like they may also be without their starting center once again. A.J. McCollum missed last week's game due to a persona matter. Regardless, I expect the Sun Devils to have trouble keeping up with Herbert and the rejuvenated Oregon offense. With three of their final four on the road - and the lone remaining home game coming against Stanford - the Ducks know they absolutely need to take advantage of this winnable game. I expect them to do just that, pulling away for a double-digit "blowout" win. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. With a 6-0 record, the Mountaineers and their fans are starting to get pretty excited. I expect them to suffer their first loss this week though. After a slow start, the Cowboys have turned the corner. They've won three straight, starting with an 18-point win over Texas and ending with a 24-point win last week over Kansas. While that may not have been as impressive as WVU's 24-point over TCU, the Cowboys are still a team full of confidence right now, one which is excited at the prospects of handing WVU its first loss. Keep in mind that the Mountaineers have only played one "true" road game (Texas Tech) all season. They're 6-5 SU (5-6 ATS) their last 11 on the road, while the Cowboys are 13-5 SU at home, during the same time. Including an upset loss against the Cowboys (at WVU) last October, the Mountaineers are just 4-7 ATS in October the last 2+ seasons. While the Mountaineers, who weren't ranked to begin the season and who weren't expected to be this good, have been tough on both sides of the ball, the Cowboys can score with the best of them. They're strong on special teams and very well-coached. Grab the points but don't be surprised to see an outright upset. 

I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA 10* ESPN SPECIAL. Admittedly, this season hasn't gone as planned for the Bulls. At one point, they had aspirations of an undefeated season. However, those dreams didn't last long, as they were beaten soundly by Floirda State on 9/24. Note that the Bulls, who lost their second game last week, bounced back from their first loss with arguably their best game of the season, a 45-20 destruction of Cincinnati, when listed as a -7-point favorite. Friday's game offers the Bulls a chance to again bounce back, while avenging a loss at Navy last season. With the game being televised on ESPN2, it also offers them a chance to show the world how good they really are. As per usual, Navy has a strong running attack. The Midshipmen will surely put up some fairly big numbers on the ground. I believe that the Navy defense, which has allowed an average of 32 points and 448 yards its last three games, is vulnerable though. While the Midshipmen are off b2b impressive wins, their last road game resulted in a 14-point loss against Air Force. Note that they're working on a short-week here while USF, which played last Friday, works on a "normal" week. This is "gut check" time for the Bulls, a team with plenty of seniors. I look for them to make things right, bouncing back and improving to 6-2 ATS when listed as favorites. 

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE 10* AFC SOUTH “GOM.” These teams have been involved in a number of very close games in recent seasons. While I like the Jags' chances of winning outright, another tight one won't surprise on Thursday. That makes getting an extra field goal, or more, an appealing proposition. The last four meetings have all been decided by eight or fewer points. The two games here at Tennessee have both been decided by a field goal of less. The Titans won 42-39 here last season and 16-14 the previous year. The Jags have won two of three games away from Jacksonville this season, each of their last two. They knocked off the Colts in London and beat the Bears in their most recent road outing. Note that three of their six games have been decided by a field goal or less, four of six have been decided by four or less. Meanwhile, off a loss last time out, the Titans are 3-4 on the season. Two of their three wins came by two points or less, too. That means that they'd be 1-6 ATS if asked to cover this week's line in every game - and that lone "decisive" win came on the road. They're 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS here at home. In fact, they're now a brual 3-15-2 ATS their last 20 games here. The Titans lost a couple of important starters to injury in their last game. Guard Quinton Spain is expected to be out several weeks. That'll likely hurt the Titans running game while the pass protection will also suffer. Meanwhile, cornerback Perrish Cox is in concussion protocol and is expected to also miss Thursday's game. He already had a couple of INT's and his loss would hurt a secondary which got completely lit up by Bortles (5 TDs) and Robinson (10/153/3 TDs) the last time these teams met. I'm grabbing the points with the Jags.

I'm playing on INDIANA 10* GAME OF THE WEEK. This is the 50th season of pro basketball for the Pacers and I expect them to tip if off with a win and cover. The Pacers made some significant moves in the offseason and are expecting big things. Additions included Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young, Aaron Brooks and Al Jefferson. The plan is to push the pace on offense a little more this season - and early indications (preseason) are that it'll be effective. Superstar Paul George is on record saying that he's happy with the offseason moves and believes that the front office has given him the pieces/depth to be able to compete with James and the Cavs. While that remains to be seen, with a projected backcourt of Teague, a playmaker and Ellis a scorer, joining a frontcourt of George, Turner and Young, assuming they stay reasonably healthy, I do expect the Pacers to have a strong season. Dallas picked up (Harrison) Barnes and Bogut in the offseason. While both are solid players who are expected to start, I don't expect those moves to have quite the same positive effect as Indiana's moves, at least not tonight. The Pacers have swept the Mavs in back-to-back seasons and haven't lost to them since the spring of 2014. Look for them to start the new era with a double-digit win.

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERSONAL FAVORITE. Homecourt has always been very important to both these teams; I expect it to prove to be the difference tonight. Health also figures to play a role. The Jazz dealt with some injury issues last season and they're already a concern again this season. Heyward, arguably their best player, is out. If Heyward isn't their best player, Favors probably is. He missed the preseason, while dealing with a knee injury. He has gotten some limited practice time in lately and, as of this writing, is questionable. However, even if he were to play, he can't be expected to be at 100%. Hood is expected to play he too is banged-up. He missed time in the exhibition campaign with a sprained hand. He returned to face these same Blazers at Salt Lake City last Wednesday, Utah's final preseason game, but wans't sharp. He managed only five points, while going two of eight from the field. Burks is also out. While the Jazz do have a deep team, that's a lot for any team to be dealing with right out of the gate. These teams also played their preseason opener against each other, a game here at Portland. The Blazers won that one by a score of 98-89. I expect them to win by at least that much again tonight, improving to 13-6 ATS the last 19 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

I'm playing on SF. The 49'ers could badly use a victory and this should be the perfect opponent and situation for them to get one. The Bucs are off a bye but that's not necessarily a good thing, as they're 0-2 SU off a bye the past couple of seasons. An upset win over Carolina, prior to the bye, may have made focusing a little more difficult, during the off-week. Note that the Bucs are 0-4 SU/ATS their last four off a divisional victory. While they've still got Evans, the losses of Martin and Jackson figure to take a toll on the TB offense. The 49ers are desperate and this is a team they can beat. They've dominated them historically and I look for history to repeat itself Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on WESTERN KENTUCKY 10* BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK. Old Dominion has been the better team for bettors so far this team. However, Western Kentucky is laying double-digits for good. reason. The Hilltoppers survived a scare at Middle Tennessee, finishing on the right side of a wild 44-43 affair. After having finished on the wrong side of a couple of those earlier (Vanderbilt, LA Tech) that victory was much needed for the Hilltoppers. Now, with some positive momentum behind them, they return home and step down in class to take on an ODU team which they hammered by 25 points (at ODU) last year. Sure, the Monarchs have four victories. In fact, with an undefeated record in conference play, ODU fans are starting to get pretty excited. However, lets keep in mind that all four of those came against weak teams (Hampton, UTSA, Charlotte, UMass) and that three of them came at home. When they stepped up in class to take on the likes of Appalachian State and NC State, the Monarchs lost by scores of 31-7 and 49-22. While the Monarchs are 2-7 ATS the last nine times that they were road underdogs in the 10.5 to 21 point range, during the same period, the Hilltoppers are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) as home favorites in the -10.5 to -21 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in "blowout fashion" Saturday evening. 

I'm playing on TCU 10 TV BEST BET.  I believe we're getting excellent value with the visitors in this one. While the Mountaineers were playing at Texas Tech last week, the Horned Frogs had the week off to prepare. With a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS record their last six after a bye, that's significant. True, the Mountaineers looked very good in beating up on the Red Raiders. They're averaging an impressive 534 yards of offense per game. The Frogs aren't giving anything away in that department though. They're averaging 530 yards of offense, while also averaging better than 40 ppg. (WVU averages 32.8) While the Frogs do have a couple of blemishes on their record, both of those losses came by six or fewer points. Speaking of "close games," the last meeting between these teams here was decided by a single point. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all the points I can get.

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Off their loss to Clemson, it wasn't completely surprising that the Cardinals didn't dominate Duke. (They still won by double-digits (24-14) though.) Now, a week further removed from the Clemson loss, I expect them to "put it all together" with a more "dominating" victory.  With a 63-20 destruction of Florida State under their belt, the Cards are certainly capable of beating up on the Wolfpack. The Wolfpack, 0-2 on the road are off a hard-fought and emotionally draining OT loss at Clemson and are now playing their second consecutive very difficult road game. In case you didn't see last week's result, the Wolfpack actually had a chance to upset Clemson but missed what would have been the game-winning field goal (only 33 yards) at the end of regulation. I expect that loss to catch up to them here, the Cards keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way, en route to a lopsided win.

I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA 10* ANNIHILATOR. Both these teams have been kind to bettors. While they failed to cover last time out, the Bulls are 5-2 ATS. The Owls have fared even better at the betting window. Off six straight covers, they're 6-1 ATS on the season. Neither team has faced a very competitive schedule; both have lost when they stepped up in class. Temple lost against Penn State and Memphis. The Bulls' lone loss (Florida State) was a big one, as it cost them a shot at an undefeated season. They've responded with three straight double-digit wins though and I expect them to keep it rolling with a fourth tonight. The Owls average a respectable 32 ppg, 378 ypg. However, the Bulls' offensive numbers are much better. They average 44.1 ppg (45 on the road) on the strength of 506.4 ypg. The Owls only beat them slightly in the points allowed department, 23 to 25.9. Last year, Temple was favored by three points (at USF) yet the Bulls hammered them by 21 points. This year's Owls' team is arguably not as strong while the Bulls are even better than they were. Temple came into that game with a Top 25 ranking and an 8-1 record. After last year's game, Temple coach Matt Rhule commented: "It was just one of those nights where nothing really went well." With the Bulls at 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) their last five as road favorites, I'm expecting a case of "deja vu" for Rhule and co. tonight.

I'm playing on BOISE STATE 10* THURSDAY “GOM”. The Broncos have a score to settle. You may recall that the Cougars upset them (at BYU) last September. You may recall that one. Boise was up four with less than a minute left. They had BYU on a fourth down but BYU QB Mangum, who hails from Idaho, connected on a hail mary TD pass to Juergens to give the Cougars the lead. Moments later, they'd seal the deal with a 50-yard INT TD. Needless, to say the Broncos haven't forgotten. Even more important than avenging that loss is the chance to stay perfect. The rest of the schedule is manageable. If the Broncos can take care of business tonight, they'll have a legit shot at an undefeated season. The Broncos aren't getting a ton of respect in part because they've been winning without covering. However, I agree with coach Harsin when he noted: "Watch college football. Every single week, it's hard to win every single week. There are no apologies for a 'W.'" Keep in mind that four of six wins have still come by double-digits and that this is still a very capable team, on both sides of the ball. Both teams are on a short week. While its true that BYU has enjoyed one extra day's worth of rest, I'd argue that advantage is negated (and then some) by the fact the the Cougars have played an exhausting schedule, incl. an extra game than the Broncos, which has seen them flying all over the country. They finally get a break afte this game but that won't help them tonight. The Broncos hammered the Cougars 55-30 when the teams met here in 2014, almost exactly two years ago. Including that victory, they're 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last six times that they were home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I expect the revenge-minded Broncos to record another double-digit win tonight.

I'm playing LA on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) With an O/U line of seven, runs are expected to be at a premium. In tonight's case, I believe that makes getting an extra +1.5 runs with the home team very attractive. Some of you will recall that I backed the Cubs when these pitchers faced each other at Wrigley on Saturday. Admittedly, Lester was much better than Maeda. Maeda's much better at home than he is on the road though and I expect him to bounce back with a better effort. He's got a solid 3.51 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in 16 starts here, not much worse than Lester's 3.17/1.148 stats on the road. Prior to Saturday, Lester's last two starts against the Dodgers, including his most recent at LA, had been decided by a single run. The Dodgers are 14-10 (+2.3) against the moneyline the past 2+ seasons, after allowing double-digits in their previous game. I expect them to bounce back with at least a "cover." 

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* GAME OF THE MONTH. The Falcons have been rolling. However, I believe the Seahawks will bring them back down to earth in a big way on Sunday afternoon. While the Falcons certainly deserve some credit for last week's win at Denver, we just saw the Chargers dominate the Broncos on Thursday night. So, perhaps beating Denver wasn't as big a feat as it seemed at the time. More importantly, it puts the Falcons in a difficult scheduling spot. Now, they're playing the second of b2b road games and their fourth road game in the past five weeks. They're doing so thousands of miles away from home, at arguably the most hostile environment in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have the luxury of playing at home and playing with an extra week's worth of rest. They bye allowed them to "get healthy" while also providing some extra time to prepare for the Falcons. While Atlanta may have caught Denver off guard, expect the well-rested Seahawks to be ready. Prior to their bye, the Hawks were off b2b double-digit wins. I'm expecting another one here.

I'm playing on MIAMI 10*. While I certainly respect the Steelers, I believe that this number is a little high. This is essentially a "must win" game for the Dolphins as they simply cannot afford another loss. They've got some potentially winnable games coming up but they need to find a way to score the upset here. In recent seasons, they've fared well, when off b2b SU losses. Their Week 3 victory, which followed consecutive losses to open the season, brought the Dolphins to 7-2 SU the last nine times that they were off two or more consecutive SU losses. While the stats favor Pittsburgh, I still believe the Dolphins are a little more talented than the stats say they are. With their season (arugably) on the line, look for them to be the "hungrier" team, digging down deep and earning at least a cover. 

I'm playing on TULSA, 10* TV BEST BET. Given the situation and matchup, I believe this line is generously high. The Cougars had hopes (and expectations) of an undefeated season. Their dreams were shattered by Navy last week though. Off that devastating loss, I don't feel they'll be very "up" for this game. They're going to face a Tulsa team which is playing well, too. The Golden Hurricane are 4-1 overall, the only loss coming at Ohio State. While its true that those four victories have come against fairly week competition, Tulsa still did take care of business and will enter this game with plenty of confidence. Tulsa ran for more than 300 yards (344 + 315) each of its last two games and will face a Houston defense which just allowed Navy to rack up more than 300 on the ground. While they didn't fare too well at Ohio St, the Golden Hurricane are still a healthy 5-1 ATS the last six times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 70 or more. During that stretch, Houston is only 1-3 ATS at home, with an O/U line of 70 or more. Last year's game (at Tulsa) was decided by 14 points and the 2014 game here at Houston was decided by 10, Tulsa easily covering as a 19.5 point underdog. Look for this one to also prove closer than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE 10* PERS FAV. A 9/17 upset win at Notre Dame brought the Spartans to 2-0 and gave fans plenty of reason for optimism. Since then, the Spartans have stumbled, losing all three games. Losing streaks such as this one have been few and far between in the Dantonio era. The team is under 500 for the first time in almost four years and they heard boos when they left the field in Saturday's loss against BYU. Needless to say that doesn't sit too well with Dantonio or his players. I believe they'll silence the critics on Saturday afternoon. The Wildcats, 1-3 ATS off a bye the past couple of seasons, did manage a win at Iowa in their last game, two weeks ago. However, like the Spartans, they're still below .500 - and that includes upset home losses against Western Michigan and Illinois State. Regardless of who ends up behind center, I expect the Spartans to get back to controlling the clock and dominating on the ground and believe the Wildcat D will provide them with that opportunity. Look for the Spartans to bounce back with a much better effort, improving to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 45 range.

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Skins were able to effectively run the ball against the likes of the Browns and Giants. However, I expect them to have considerably more trouble doing so against the Ravens, as the Baltimore D has been outstanding. In fact, with only 256 yards (210.5 at home) allowed per game, the Ravens' defense ranks #1 in the entire league. On the other hand, the Skins are allowing 413 yards per game, 457 per game on the road. While the Skins are 3-7 ATS their last 10 against the AFC, the Ravens are 5-2-1 ATS their last eight against NFC teams. Look for their superior defense to be the difference this afternoon. 

I'm playing on STANFORD. I played against Stanford in last week's blowout loss at Washington. However, I'm coming right back with what I expect to be an angry Cardinal team this week. This line came down from its opener, providing us with excellent value. I believe it easily could have gone the other way. The well-coached and disciplined Cardinal are 4-1 SU/ATS the last five times that they were off a conference loss. They're already 2-0 SU/ATS here at home, moving to 11-4 ATS (12-3 SU) their last 15 lined home games. The Cougars are undefeated at home but lost their only road game. They lost by 17 when they visited here in 2014. Stanford has been playing some pretty tough defenses in recent weeks. That's made it tough for their banged-up offensive line to open up holes for McCaffrey. The Cougars defense isn't nearly as good though. (Remember that Oregon's Royce Freeman ran for 138 yards and three TDs against them.) So, while still less than 100%, the line should be able to be more effective which in turn should lead to a big game from their superstar back. Look for the Cardinal to bounce back with its best effort, ultimately pulling away for a double-digit win.

I'm playing on OREGON. The Huskies are playing well right now and they came through for me in a big way against Stanford last week. However, off that (admittedly impressive) victory, I believe that they're laying a little too large a number for this week's game at Eugene. While the Ducks are off to a disappointing start and off three straight losses, they've still dominated the Huskies for years. They also haven't lost four straight since the end of the 2006 season. True, the Ducks have some uncertainty at the QB position; Herbert relieved Prukop in last week's loss. Regardless, of which QB is under center, I believe the Ducks can still score though. Royce Freeman, who ran for more than 300 yards in two games against the Huskies, is off a 3-TD performance against the Cougars. Washington's coach Chris Petersen said this of Freeman: "He's as good as there is in the country, without question. He backs it up every week." Counting the Nebraska game as a 'push,' the Ducks are 4-0-1 ATS the last five times that they were getting points. Meanwhile, the Huskies are just 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were listed as road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. I'm grabbing all those points. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. Two weeks ago, I backed the Cardinals when they crushed the Bucs by a 40-7 margin. Last week, with the Cards on the road for the first time, I played against them. The Bills would go on to beat them 33-18. Off that loss and now back at home, I'm coming back with the Cards on Sunday afternoon. While only 1-2, I believe that this is still a strong Arizona team, one which has an advantage on both sides of the ball in this matchup. While they already avenged that loss with a 27-3 victory at St. Louis, the Cards won't have forgotten that the Rams beat them in the first week of October here last season.  Catching the Rams playing the second of b2b road games, I expect another double-digit win.

I'm playing on SF. Some of you may be surprised to see me playing on the 49'ers. After all, I've played against them each of the last two weeks. (The 49'ers lost those games by scores of 46-27 and 37-18.) Those games both came on the road against angry, desperate and highly talented/capable teams, Seattle and Carolina. As you know, the Seahawks and Panthers have represented the NFC in the SB for three years in a row. This week, however, the 49ers are back home and they're hosting a Dallas team which hasn't been to the Super Bowl in decades. I believe they're catching the Cowboys, who are without Romo and likely without Dez Bryant (gametime decision but expected to miss) at the right time. The Cowboys played their first two games against divisional opponents and their next one was a nationally televised Sunday night game. Off those three 'big games' and now flying out to the West Coast, I feel that the Cowboys may be ripe for a letdown. The 49'ers, on the other hand, should be extremely motivated to bounce back from b2b blowout losses. Keep in mind that they won their only game here by a score of 28-0. They're 4-0 ATS their last four as home underdogs of three or fewer points and I expect them to improve on those stats Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on LSU. Since joining the SEC in 2012, Missouri has played every team except LSU. I believe they're catching the (LSU) Tigers at the wrong time. As you are likely aware, the big news for LSU is that Les Miles is out, along with offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. While Miles certainly had success at times, I believe that this was the right move and I look for it to pay immediate dividends. Miles nearly got fired late last season. That can be difficult on the players (and coach) and they should now be able to move forward. Defensive line coach Ed Orgeron takes over on an interim basis. He's had success in this role before, as he went 6-2 in the interim role when USC fired Lane Kiffin a few years back. I expect the change and a change in offensive philosophy (Orgeron had this to say: "...we're going to spread the ball around a little bit, do some different things, change the style of play. There's a lot of things on offense we've done well running the football. We want to have a different passing game. We want to be more creative, find ways for the quarterback to get the ball down the field throwing it.") to prove to be just what the doctor ordered for a very talented but struggling offense. Going back several years, Orgeron didn't fare too well as the head coach of Ole Miss, from 2005-07. Back then, Missouri beat him twice. A decade later, now armed with the superior team on both sides of the ball, Orgeron gets his revenge, the Tigers kicking off the post-Miles era in blowout fashion.

I'm playing on BOWLING GREEN. Its true that the Falcons haven't exactly been impressive. They're 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on the season and they got utterly destroyed last week. Those results have helped to provide us with a much lower line than we normally would have gotten for this matchup; I believe the Falcons are offering excellent value. Lets keep in mind that Bowling Green has had a brutal schedule. The Falcons have played road games at Ohio State and Memphis and one of their two home games came against an explosive Middle Tennessee State team. They were getting more than 50 combined points at the betting window for those three games, so going 0-3 there was not surprising. They did win their lone "winnable" game - albeit barely. Now, however, they get a "fresh start" with the beginning of conference play. Who better than to restore the Falcons' confidence than Eastern Michigan, a team it has absolutely dominated (9-1 SU L10) over the years. Granted, the Eagles are on the upswing and appear to be a little stronger than they've been in recent years though. Thats still not saying much though and they're 3-1 non-conference record needs to be taken with a grain of salt. They deserve a little credit for beating Wyoming. However, that game came at home. The other two victories came against Miss. Valley State and Charlotte. Needless to say, Bowling Green has played much tougher competition. I expect that experience against bigger stronger athletes to pay dividends here. Stepping down in class, look for the Falcons, who are the defending MAC champs, to "get healthy," the Eagles falling to 0-4 ATS their last four as road underdogs of three or fewer points. 

I'm playing on UCONN. The Cougars are obviously a very good team, strong on both sides of the ball. They entered the season with a national ranking, beat Oklahoma in Week 1 and have proceeded to destroy every team since. Impressive indeed. Those results have helped to create a very high line on Thursday night though and I believe that it will prove to be too high. Keep in mind that Houston was also strong last season and that those 2015 Cougars lost to UConn by three points (20-17) as -8 point favorites. Speaking of "close games," the Huskies have seen all four of their games decided by seven or fewer points, three of them by four or less. The UConn defense has been mostly solid, allowing 22.5 ppg. Counting the Lamar game as a 'push,' the Cougars are actually only 6-9-1 ATS at home the past 2+ seasons. They've been very stingy against the run but the Huskies aren't going to deviate from what they do. Look for the visitors to have some success on the ground, helping them to limit the amount of time that the Houston offense is on the field. While we have to go back a number of years, the Huskies are 8-4 ATS their last 12 as road underdogs of greater than 21 points. I expect them to improve on those stats Thursday. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. This game will be played almost 10 years to the day that the Saints played "Domecoming," their first game back home after missing nearly a year due to Hurricane Katrina. Their opponent that Monday night? These very same Atlanta Falcons. (The Saints cruised to a 23-3 victory.) While the Falcons have gone through various coaches and QB's - Jim Mora (JR) was Atlanta's coach that night, Michael Vick their QB - both Sean Payton and Drew Brees, who went 20 of 28 that night, remain for the Saints. The significance of this game won't be lost on either of them, just as it wasn't that night. Looking at some more recent history and we find that the Saints, who have started the season at 0-2, are 6-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b SU losses. Needless to say, the Saints know they can't afford to fall to 0-3. Not when they're playing in the same division as Newton and the Panthers, who they'll face in Week 5, after returning home from a trip to the West Coast in Week 4. They beat the Falcons by 10 points here last season; I expect them to "rise to the occasion" with a "statement win" on Monday night. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO. I respect the Cardinals; as many of you know, I've backed them in each of their first two games. After disappointing in their opener, they bounced back with a blowout win over Tampa last week. They're on the road for the first time here though and I expect them to have their hands full. Note that the Cards are only 3-6 ATS, after their Week 1 setback, their last nine against teams from the AFC. (During the same stretch, they've dominated NFC teams.) The Bills had lofty expectations this season, the Brady suspension providing particular optimism. However, they find themselves at 0-2 entering the week, the Pats 2-0, heading into their Thursday game vs. Houston. Regardless of what happens on Thursday, the Bills figure to be in "desperation mode." They know that they can ill afford to head into Foxboro, the first of b2b road games, with an 0-3 record. That makes taking care of business essential this week. They'll be working with some extra rest, the result of having played a Thursday game last week, and that figures to help in their preparation. The Bills are 5-2-1 ATS the last eight times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. During that stretch, they're also a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when coming off b2b SU losses. Look for them to bounce back with AT LEAST a cover once again here. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Thus far, the Broncos have fared just fine without Peyton Manning. I expect the defending champs, who are playing their first on the road, to finally taste defeat on Sunday afternoon though. This is the Bengals' home opener and there's going to be some extra emotion and energy in the stadium. While they lost last week, Marvin Lewis' Bengals remain an impressive 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS their last eight September games. They're also 3-1 SU/ATS their last four off a division loss. While the Broncos came back to beat them last December - which sent the Bengals to the Wildcard Rd. vs the Steelers - the Bengals won big (38-27) the last meeting here at Cincinnati, a big Monday night win over Manning. I expect another big win and cover for the Bengals here.

I'm playing on ARIZONA. Washington has a good team this year and looked impressive through its first three games. However, lets keep in mind that all three of those games were at home and that all three were against teams which were weaker than Arizona; the Huskies were laying more than 100 combined points in the three games combined. Now, however, the Huskies play their first conference game and they do so late in the evening at a hostile environment. They'll be facing an improved Arizona team which has been getting better each week and which will be determined to get some payback after getting destroyed by the Huskies last year. 

Washington coach Chris Pederson noted: "...everybody plays a little bit harder and all those type of things. And then you factor in that we're going away, night game, first league game -- I know what the energy will be like in that stadium. That will feel completely different to us."

There's also a huge home game vs. Standford on the deck, followed by a road date at Oregon. So, it might be easy to look past a Wildcat team which they hammered last season. 

The line climbed higher due in part to injuries to Arizona's QB Solomon and RB Wilson. However, replacements Dawkins and Taylor may in fact both be better. Dawkins can run a lot better than Solomon and is full of confidence after a big game vs. Hawaii. Rich Rodriguez noted: "The thing he did well against Hawaii was his decision-making was good. His eyes were in the right spot. He was decisive in all of his actions, and I think that is why he gained some confidence as the game went on."

Meanwhile, Taylor came in and racked up 168 yards on 18 carries. Rodriguez said this of Taylor: "He has probably learned as quickly as any true freshman I have ever had, and I have had some really good ones throughout the years."

The Wildcats, who beat the Huskies by a point when these teams met here in 2014, will be thinking upset. After all, they're 7-5 their last 12 home games against top-10 teams (dating back to 2005) and they've beaten a top-10 team every year that Rodriguez has been here. Look for them to give the Huskies a much tougher test than expected. 

I'm playing on SASKATCHEWAN. This will be the final year that games are played at Mosaic Stadium at Taylor Field, as it will be replaced by a new Mosaic Stadium next year. With the Ti-Cats coming to town, fans will recall the most-important home-field victory in Saskatchewan history, when the Riders hammered Hamilton here to win the Grey Cup, a few years ago. While those fond memories remain strong in Regina, recent memories haven't been nearly as sweet. This year's team has struggled, particularly on the road, where the Riders are 0-6. The worst of those losses came back in August, at Hamilton. In that 8/20 game, the Ti-Cats destroyed the Riders by a 53-7 margin. I don't believe that result sat too well with the Riders' players and coaches. Despite their commanding lead, the Ti-Cats were throwing the ball right up until the end, throwing for the final TD with just over a minute to go. The Riders haven't forgotten and they've been waiting to get some payback here at home, where they play much better. Note that they're 16-5 SU and 15-6 ATS their last 21 home meetings with the Ti-Cats. Hamilton isn't as good on the road, going 3-4 SU/ATS and outscoring teams by a 29.1 to 29 margin. The Riders are 3-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. I look for them to improve on those stats tonight with an excellent shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Gators beat the Vols by a point (28-27) last year. They also beat them by a single point (10-9) the previous year. In fact, Tennessee hasn't beaten Florida since 2004. The Vols should get some payback on Saturday afternoon though - and by a lot more than a point. Both teams are dealing with some injury issues. Cornerback Cam Sutton and MLB Darrin Kirkland Jr are among the injured for the Vols. Both of those losses are admittedly significant. The Gators' injuries are arguably even bigger though, starting with QB Del Rio. It doesn't help matter that they're also banged up along the line at the offensive guard spots. While they hope to have WR Gallaway available, he may be at less than 100%. The time is right. Look for Butch Jones' veteran team to do something no Tennessee team has done in more than a decade, covering the number along the way.  

I'm playing on HOUSTON on Thursday night. Normally, for a game on a short week, I often initially take a look at the home team. This isn't a "normal" situation though. The Patriots survived admirably without future Hall-Of-Fame QB Tom Brady. However, now it appears that they're also going to be without his replacement, Garroppolo. As you probably saw or heard, Garroppolo went down in the win over Miami. That looks like its going to leave a rookie QB, Jacoby Brissett, making his first start, while playing on a short week. Brissett was six of nine in relief but now he's up against J.J. Watt and a Houston defense which has surrendered a mere 13 points and 274.5 total yards per game, thus far. (That's a whole lot better than the 22.5 ppg and 401.5 ypg which New England has allowed!) The Texans are 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS the last 15 times that they were favored, including 2-0 SU/ATS as a road favorites of three or less. They're itching for some payback, after the Pats embarrassed them (27-6) at Houston last year. I expect them to get it. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA. The 49ers are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Angry off their opening week loss, the Panthers are playing with extra rest, due to having played on Thursday night. On the other hand, SF is off a late MNF game on the West Coast and is now playing an early Sunday game in the Eastern Time Zone. Note that the west-coast based 49ers are a money-burning 14-26 ATS over the years, the past 40 times that they were off a MNF game, 0-2 SU/ATS their last two. While the 49ers were 6-10 ATS (5-11 SU) on the road the past two seasons, Carolina was 13-6 ATS and 15-4 SU here at home. During that time, the Panthers are also 5-1 ATS against teams from the NFC South. While the 49ers looked impressive against the Rams, I'm not convinced that all their defensive issues are solved yet. Look for the Panthers to expose those issues, en route to a lopsided win and cover. 

I'm playing on LSU. I successfully played against the Tigers in their opening week loss at Lambeau Field. Off that loss, in hindsight, it wasn't all that shocking that they failed to cover the big number against Jacksonville State last week. The Tigers have now had time to "recover" though and I expect them to be at their best on Saturday evening. Its true that the Bulldogs have played LSU tough in recent seasons. However, I believe that the talent gap between the teams is wider this season. Remember, that LSU entered the season with legit aspirations at winning the national championship. This week, the Tigers will be looking to silence the critics and for a big break-out game from the offense. Superior on both sides of the ball, I expect Miles' team to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way en route to a convincing win and cover. *GOM

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Recent meetings between these schools have been close. The Cougars won by three at Houston last season. Laying -7, the Bearcats won by a touchdown here at Cincinnati the previous year. While that game landed right on the number, the Bearcats are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS the last five times that they were a host in the series. They'll come in confident here and I expect them to give their ranked guests all they can handle. The Cougars showed that they're worthy of their ranking by defeating Oklahoma. However, as they know all too well, this is a tough place to play. The Bearcats are 11-2 SU here the past 2+ seasons. The Bearcats have an experienced defense and an offense which just put up 38 points and more than 500 yards at Purdue. Benefitting from a big offensive line the balanced attack had 250 or more yards on both the ground and through the air. Houston coach Tom Hernan said this of the Bearcats: "As good as they were last year, they've improved on both sides of the ball. Their defensive line and their defensive tackles seem to be in a lot better shape. They're moving around better. Their two safeties are really good players that make a ton of tackles for them. They seem to be a little more sound in what they're doing. They're in the right places at the right time on defense. On offense, the quarterback is playing at an extremely high level. He's a really good player behind a massive offensive line. They're running the ball a little bit better than they have in years past. It will be a challenge." I look for Hernan's team to indeed be challenged and won't be surprised if the Bearcats rise to the occasion and score the outright upset. 

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. Getting a handful of points, I believe the Jaguars are offering excellent value. The Jags figure to be significantly improved this season. They've got a young and talented offense (Bortles threw 35 TDs and 4400+ yards LY) with another year under its belt and a revamped defense that they spent big money on during the offseason. Rodgers is (obviously) a great QB and he'll surely enjoy having Nelson back. That said, last season was the worst of Rodgers career. Also, Nelson didn't play in the preseason after missing all of last year. Additionally, they just released Josh Sitton, a fixture on the offensive line and 2-year All Pro. The Jags outscored teams by an average of 23.4 to 22.0 here last season, while the Packers outscored teams by a 23.7 to 23.0 margin in games away from Lambeau. There's going to be a lot of excitement in the stadium and I look for the Jags to rise to the occasion, earning AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on KC. The Chiefs are 4-0 against the Chargers the past two seasons. The past three of those victories all came by a minimum of seven points and by an average of greater than 16. I look for "more of the same" this afternoon. The Chargers, 4-12 last season, still don't know if SD will be there permanent home. That's got to be an unsettling feeling. The Chiefs, who have covered 12 of 20 (60%) as favorites the past couple of seasons, enter today's action on a 10-game "regular season" winning streak. Even without Charles, they still have a potent running attack. I expect them to wear down their guests, en route to another win and cover. 

I'm playing on OREGON. I see this one turning into a blowout. The hire of Bronco Mendenhall excited Virginia fans. Many assumed the Cavs, who were just 4-8 last year, would qualify in Mendenhall's first year. However, those expectations took a major hit last week. Despite being favored by double-digits, Virginia lost by 17 points against Richmond. It wasn't a fluke either, as the Spiders outgained them by a commanding 524-302 margin. If Richmond, who was previously 2-30 against the Cavs and who hadn't beaten them since the 1940s, put up 500+ yards against the Cavs, you can imagine what Oregon is going to do. The Ducks topped both the 50-point mark and the 500-yard mark in their opener. More of the same Saturday night. 

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. The Red Raiders return Patrick Mahomes and all he did was throw for 4563 yards last season. While the opponent (Stephen Austen) was a lightweight, the Raiders scored 69 points in their opener, piling up more than 600 yards of offense in the air alone. Obviously, ASU represents a major step up in class. Still, the Tech offense figures to come in full of confidence and lets not forget that the Sun Devils were the nation's worst team against the pass (337.8 ypg) last season. We may not be able to count on much improvement this season either, as lowly Northern Arizona threw for 369 yards against the Sun Devils last week, despite being a 4-TD underdog. While the ASU passing attack managed a mere 180 yards, Lumberjack receiver Elijah Marks had 178 receiving yards himself. While the Sun Devils eventually pulled away, they were being outgained by what was supposed to be a very weak opponent by a 212-169 margin at halftime. While we have to go back a number of years, the Raiders are 11-4 ATS their last 15 as road underdogs. Ten of those 11 covers resulted in outright wins. While I'll gladly grab the points, with Mahomes carving up the suspect ASU secondary, I'm expecting another outright win here. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. I like the Longhorns' chances of scoring the upset tonight. Always talented, this year's Longhorns are out to show that Texas is still a better team/school than the one which took the field in 2014 and 2015. Needless to say, a nationally televised Sunday Night "stand-alone" game against a ranked and high profile Irish team provides the perfect opportunity. Of course, the Longhorns also feel that they've got a "score to settle" as the Irish hammered them (at ND) on this very weekend, last September. With tonight's rematch being played in Austin, on a warm night with 10's of thousands of screaming fans wearning orange, I expect an entirely different result. The Irish are indeed a good team, worthy of their preseason ranking. They've lost a little from last year though while the Longhorns - and their new look offense - should be considerably stronger. Look for Longhorns to come to play tonight, giving the Irish all they can handle the entire way. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. This is the beginning of a "new era" for the Bulldogs and I expect them to usher it in with a big win. The Tar Heels, who scored over 40 ppg last season, are no slouches. They've got some questions along the defensive line though and last year's team struggled against the run. That's a problem when facing Nick Chubb, who is not expected to be limited and who has reportedly made a full recovery. While the Tar Heels are likely going to put up some points, I look for the Bulldogs to ultimately wear them down, en route to a win and cover. 

Condition: Georgia at -6 or better. No play if line climbs above -6. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. This game has an O/U line in the 40s. With points likely to be at a bit of a premium, I believe that asking LSU to cover such a large number on the road (while technically a neutral field, the game is being played at Lambeau Field) is asking a lot. With a Heisman candidate at running back, plenty of experience and NFL calibre talent throughout the roster, the Tigers are indeed a very good team. I believe that the Badgers are going to be a lot more competitive than many will be expecting. While the Tigers may have plucked away the Badgers' defensive coordinator (Aranda) the Badgers are still the team which ranked #1 in scoring defense last season, second in total defense. Needless to say, the Badgers D will be extremely motivated for this big TV game, a chance to show their old defensive coach that they are capable of taking on mighty LSU. While Wisconsin's new QB (Houston) may lack game experience, he's a 5th year senior with decent mobility and a good arm. He came off the bench in a game (Illinois) last year and was 22 of 32 with two TDs. Look for the Badgers to give their highly ranked guests all they can handle. 

Conditon: Badgers at +10 or better. No play if line dips below +10.

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. I felt pretty fortunate to win with the Jaguars last week. Bortles and the starters got outplayed by the Bengals but a big fourth quarter comeback led to a win and cover. While I wasn't surprised to see the Jags "play to win" in the fourth, I also had expected more from the starters. In Week 4, as is generally the case, a lot of those same "backups" that led the comeback charge last week will see some extra playing time. While they won't see a ton of action and some none at all, I believe that the Jags' starters will also be motivated to improve. As Jacksonville's starting left-tackle (Kelvin Beachum) noted: "There's a ton of urgency. There's always urgency when you're playing the game of football. There's never a dull moment. … This is your livelihood. This is how you pay your bills. This is how you feed your kids. It's a heightened sense of urgency. That improvement needs to happen. We have a ways to get better in a very short amount of time." While I may have been a little fortunate to win with the Jags last week, my victory on Miami, against these same Falcons, didn't need any extra "luck." The Dolphins were up by four at halftime and proceeded to outscore the Falcons 10-3 in the second half. While the Jags' reserves were having a big fourth quarter, the Falcons' reserves didn't score a single fourth quarter point. Both teams saw last season's Week 4 preseason game decided by a single point. Another close one won't surprise and I'm grabbing the points.

Condition: Play Jacksonville at +3 or better. No play if line dips below a field goal. 

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. Its true that the Jags have not been a particularly good preseason team. An 0-2 SU/ATS record so far this year brings them to 4-10 SU and 6-8 ATS the past few preseasons. I believe they're going to want to win this one though - and also that they've got the talent to do so. As you know, the Jags' struggles haven't been limited to the preseason, as they've also been terrible during the regular season for years. Last year, the team took a major step in the right direction though. With Bortles off a season which saw him throw for 35 TDs and better than 4000 yards and with some offseason upgrades to the defense, expectations are higher than they've been in years. I believe that the Jags will want to build on that excitement and attempt to "instill a winning culture" by going all out for the win tonight. The last thing this young team wants/needs is to go 0-3 its first three preseason games, particularly as Game 4 doesn't typically mean much. Look for Bortles, who has been fairly sharp in limited playing time and co. to be the more motivated team, giving Jags fans reason for continued optimism. NFLX GOM

I'm playing on SF.  As you know, Week 3 is the week where the starters generally see the most time. That being the case, many may be tempted to back Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. After all, Rodgers, Nelson and co. will finally be on the field. However, I believe that the 49'ers will want "want it a little more" and that they'll be the team which ultimately comes away with the win and cover. While the Packers offense is basically set, the 49'ers have a QB battle going on, now that Kaepernick has returned. Even though the Packers should be happy to get on the field, this is a team that doesn't particularly like playing preseason games. Their feelings surely weren't hurt when they didn't end up having to play the HOF Game and they likely aren't thrilled to have to travel out West - their longest "road trip" of the pre or regular season. Looking to establish a winning culture, Kelly's team comes out on top. 

Condition: SF at -3 or better. No play if line goes above -3. 

I'm playing on SF. The Broncos had more success than the 49'ers in Week 1. Obviously, they were a much better team last season. Throw in the fact that they've also got a QB competition (along with some other players competing for jobs) going on and its easy to see why they're favored. While I understand why those points would lead to the Broncos being favored, that doesn't mean that I think they should be laying such a large number. In fact, the first two of those three points (better in Week 1 and better last season) are arguably reasons why the 49'ers might be the more motivated team for this one. 

Kaepernick is again out and thats not necessarily a bad thing. Keep in mind that the 49ers actually took a 13-7 lead into halftime last week. Gabbert will get the start and he was sharp in joint practices. He had this to say, "We were clicking. I think we missed maybe one throw, but for the most part, the guys were running hard, the offensive line did a tremendous job blocking that front seven and just delivered the ball on time. The guys made some plays."

Jeff Driskel has eyes on the starting job. He worked out with the Broncos in the spring and he'll be anxious to show them what they missed. While the playbook might be limited for him, newly signed Ponder may see some action late. An experienced veteran, he's impressed in limited time since joining the team. 

I believe both teams may want this one a little more than is normal for a second week preseason game but ultimately I look for the 49'ers to earn AT LEAST the cover.

Condition: Play on SF at +4 or better. No play if line dips below 4.

I'm playing on DALLAS. With the NFL returning to LA, there's a little more excitement in the air for this one than is normal for a Week 1 preseason game. The Rams appear to be a popular side, as many expect them to be motivated to begin the new era with a victory. Sure, there's a lot of excitement but are the Rams really ready to be laying more than a field goal in a Week 1 preseason game. Not in my opinion. 

The starters won't see much action, as per usual. While all eyes are on #1 pick Goff, Dallas' Dak Prescott has been making a serious push to be the Cowboys' backup and I won't be surprised to see him end up with the superior numbers to Goff. 

Jerry Jones helped play a role in getting the Rams back to LA. Knowing how many fans are in attendance, I expect him to pass down the message to treat this one a little more seriously than usual. I'm grabbing the generous points and won't be surprised to see an upset. 

Condition: This is a play on Dallas at +3 or better. No play if not getting AT LEAST a field goal. 

I'm playing on KC. I believe that the Chiefs will be a little more motivated than the Seahawks for this one. Alex Smith and the starters should get roughly a quarter, which should be a little more than the Seattle starters see. After that, newly acquired Nick Foles should close out the half. While he doesn't know the full playbook yet (he does know some, from his time with Reid as a rookie) he'll be motivated to impress his new team and provides a quality QB coming in behind Smith.

Looking back at Week 1 of last year's preseason and we find that Seattle lost at home vs. Denver. Meanwhile, the Chiefs hammered the Cardinals by a score of 34-19. KC would go on to beat Seattle the next week and finish the preseason at 4-0, outscoring teams by a dominating 106-59 margin. No other AFC team managed even 90. That preseason success seemed to translate pretty well to the regular season as the Chiefs won their reg. season opener and finished with 11 wins. Look for Reid and co. to start things off with another win and cover.

Condition: This is a play on KC at -4 or better. No play if line goes above -4.

I'm playing HOUSTON on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) While I like the Astros' chances of winning this game "outright," I prefer to lay the reasonable price to get the extra +1.5 runs. All three games in this series have been tight. Two of them had scores of 2-1 and the other had a score of 3-1. The Astros are 5-0 in Fiers' last five here and 9-2 against the moneyline in Fiers' home starts on the season. A closer look reveals that both of the losses were by a single run, too. They lost his first home start by a score of 3-2, back in April. Next, the Astros won Fiers' next four home starts before falling 2-1 to Texas. Since then, as mentioned, they've won his last five in a row here. In other words, the Astros would be a PERFECT 11-0 in Fiers' home starts, if getitng +1.5 runs with each of them. Happ's teams are 1-3 his last four starts against Houston and the lone win was by a single run. Meanwhile, Fiers dominated the Jays (and Happ) in his lone start against them, allowing only two hits and one run through seven complete innings, en route to a 6-1 victory. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs but expecting not to need them. 10* 

I'm playing Cincinnati on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) The Reds have won seven of their last 10. They're also 7-3 (+5.2) when Straily has started at home this season. Given that Straily has a 1.31 ERA and 0.774 WHIP his last three starts and that Wainwright has a 6.14 ERA on the road this season, the Reds have an excellent opportunity to stay hot. While I like the Reds' chances of winning this one "outright," there are a number of reasons why I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. Here are a few of them. Wainwright is in good form right now and he's won each of his last two starts by a single run. Likewise, two of Straily's last three starts have been decided by a single run. Wainwright's last three starts vs. the Reds? All decided by a single run. Overall, the Reds have seen three of their last four decided by one run while the Cards have seen three of five decided by a single run. All things considered, this is a very reasonable price to be getting an extra +1.5 runs here. 9*

I'm playing on WASHINGTON on the run-line (-1.5 runs) The Nats should bounce back in decisive fashion here. With a 0.90 ERA his last three starts, Scherzer is currently in top form. Jackson has only made one start since 2014. While he did manage to earn a victory, allowing five walks was a warning sign. The Nats bullpen has a 2.87 ERA, 2.16 (0.946 WHIP!) here at Washington. SD relievers have a combined 4.54 ERA and a 1.403 WHIP. Throw in the fact that the Nats also hit considerably better against rh'ers than do the Padres and this one should be one-sided. 10* 

I'm playing ATLANTA on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) With the Marlins favored on the moneyline, we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with Atlanta for quite a reasonable price, which I feel is providing us with excellent value. While the Braves certainly have some issues, they've played much better in recent weeks. They managed a profit against the moneyline, albeit a small one, in June and after upsetting Jose Fernandez yesterday, they're in the black for July, thus far. Wisler is off three straight quality starts, the Braves winning two of those. Last time out, he limited hot hitting Cleveland to two runs through six innings, striking out nine. (He received a no-decision.) In his previous start, also a no-decision, he held the Mets to three runs through 6 2/3 innings. Atlanta won a 1-run game. Before that, he beat the Reds, allowing two run through 6 2/3 innings. Conley didn't fare nearly as well in his last start, as he allowed five runs through 4 1/3 innings. True, Conley did just dominate the Braves (at Miami) two starts ago. However, he didn't pitch as well in a start here at Atlanta in late May (Braves won 4-2) and Atlanta will now be seeing him for the second time in less than two weeks and the third time in roughly six weeks. On the other hand, the Marlins haven't seen Wisler yet this season. For all their problems, the Braves have had their way with the Marlins this season. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 10*

I'm playing on SASKATCHEWAN. Its true that there's a little bit of an "unknown" factor about the Riders. That's because they transformed their team from last year and because they had a bye in Week 1. There are a number of things we do know though. For starters, they LOVE football in Regina and the entire city desperately wants their team to return to prominence. Second, they brought in a winning coaching staff that means business. Head coach/GM Chris Jones brought almost his entire coaching staff over from Edmonton, after winning the Grey Cup last season. Having last week off gave Jones, 4-0 off a bye in two years as a head coach, some extra time to gameplan for the Argos. Speaking of the Argos, they weren't very good in Week 1, getting blown out by a 42-20 score, while managing a mere 261 yards of total offense. While that was at home, the Argos have won just seven of their past 20 road games. Look for the Riders to start the new era with a win and cover. 10* 

I'm playing on EDMONTON. As you may recall, these teams met in the Grey Cup. Edmonton won by six. Playing on their home field, I expect the defending champs to win Saturday's rematch by an even bigger margin. The Eskimos have dominated this series here. Since 2002, they've hosted Ottawa six times. Edmonton was a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS in those games. All six victories came by double-digits. They won those games by 16, 12, 41, 25, 16 and 29 points. That's an average margin victory of more than 23 points. The Eskimos enter the season as favorites to repeat as champs. Ottawa set the CFL record for most improvement from one year to the the next. The RedBlacks suffered some major losses on the defensive line, a strength of last year's team, though and I won't be surprised to see them take a step back. While they've got some new coaches, the Eskimos return the core of the team which has dominated the past two seasons. I expect them to kick off the new campaign with a win and cover. 10* 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. As many of you are aware, I won with Cleveland in the last game. Having successfully staved off elimination in Game 5, I just didn't see the Cavs losing on their home floor in Game 6. We're back out West for Game 7 though and I believe that homecourt will ultimately prove the difference. The Warriors earned the right to play this game here by being the best team all season long. Now, that season's worth of excellence pays off. Yes, the Cavs have shown they can win here. However, lets not forget that they were a modest 24-17 on the road during the regular season while the Warriors were 39-2 here at home. They've still beaten the Cavs four of the last five meetings on this floor, six of the past eight. Every one of those six victories came by a minimum of six points, too. The average margin of victory in this season's three home wins over the Cavs is 18. This line is lower than any game against the Cavs here since way back in 2010. I look for the Warriors, still 49-28-3 ATS (62-18 SU) their L80 when playing with 'revenge,' to repeat as champs, capping off an amazing season while covering the small number along the way. 10* 

I'm playing SD on the RUN-LINE (+1.5 RUNS) With the Nats favored on the money-line, we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with the Padres for quite a reasonable price. In this case, while I like the Padres' chances of winning "outright," I feel that's the line which is providing us with the best value. You might be surprised to learn that the Nats are only 5-8 when Gonzalez has taken the mound. (They'd be 4-9 if asked to lay -1.5 runs in each.) That includes a 0-5 mark in his last five starts. Over that 5-game winless stretch, Gonzalez has allowed 24 earned runs in 31 1/3 innings. Not good. Pomeranz wasn't good last time out either. However, he still has a 2.88 ERA on the season, a 2.60 mark here at PetCo. While it was a few years ago now, Pomeranz tossed 6 1/3 shutout innings (beating Strasburg) in his lone start vs. Washington. On the other hand, the Padres roughed up Gio when they saw him last season, knocking him out of the game after only 4 2/3 innings. Two of his last three starts vs. SD have been decided by a single run. Dating back to last season, Pomeranz's teams would be 7-2 his last nine home starts, if getting an extra +1.5 runs in each. I'm expecting AT LEAST another "cover" here. 10* 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. It would have been easy for the Cavs to quit. Down 3-1 and playing Game 5 on the road, they were essentially being written off. At least, by many. They didn't quit though. Now, they're right back in the series. Sure, it helped that Green was out. Still, I feel that the return home with the momentum and fans on their side will prove bigger than the return of Green. As strong as the Warriors are on the road, the Cavs are even stronger at home. They've now won 41 of their last 50 games here. I say: "Bring on Game 7." 10* 

I'm playing PHILADELPHIA on the Run-Line (+1.5 runs.) While I like the Phillies' chances of winning this game "outright," I like them even better when getting an extra +1.5 runs, at a very reasonable price. While Happ has been very solid on the season, Nola has arguably been better. Last start notwithstanding, he's also in better current form. Even after a rare tough outing, Nola still has a respectable 3.45 ERA his last three starts. Happ, on the other hand, has a poor 5.50 ERA his last three. Giving up five home runs in his last two starts hasn't helped matters. For the season, Happ has a 3.70 ERA and 1.185 WHIP. Nola is even better though with a 3.20 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. Happ has 53 Ks vs. 24 walks, while allowing 12 home runs. Once again, Nola beats him in every category. He's got 88 K's vs. only 16 walks, allowing seven home runs. While the games in this series haven't been close, the Jays saw three of their four games against Baltimore, the team they faced in the last series, decided by a single run. Happ's teams would be just 6-14 in his last 20 road starts, if being asked to lay -1.5 runs in each of those games. This season, the Jays are 3-4 in his seven road starts, one of those three wins coming by a single run. I expect Nola and the Phillies to bounce back with a big effort. 10* 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Warriors have certainly looked dominant thus far. The Cavs still have a better home record (40-11) than the Warriors (37-11) do on the road. Lebron and co have a lot of pride and obviously aren't happy with the results of the first two games. With their backs to the wall, I expect them to be MUCH better. Keep in mind that the Cavs haven't lost a game here in nearly two months. The last time it happened was when Lebron and the Cavs stars were rested, a meaningless regular season game against the Pistons. Since then, they've won seven straight here, the last six by double-digits. The Cavs won Game 3 here against the Warriors last season. History repeats itself at "The Q" on Wednesday night. 10*

I'm playing Philadelphia on the Run-Line (+1.5 runs.) With the Cubs a heavy favorite on the money-line, we're able to get an extra 1.5 runs with the Phillies and still get a healthy underdog return. With all due respect to Hendricks and the Cubs, who have indeed been very good, I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Admittedly, Hendricks has been sharp his last two starts, one of those a win vs. Eickhoff and the Phillies. Those games were both at Wrigley though and he's been nothing special (1-3 with a 4.37 ERA) in four road starts. Eickhoff, on the other hand, has a superb 2.27 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in six home starts, all of them quality. He's gone at least six complete innings in ALL six of those, while allowing three earned runs or less in each, zero earned runs three times. He beat the Cubs in his lone home start against them, allowing a single run, on just three hits, through seven complete innings. I expect AT LEAST a "cover" here. 9* 

I'm playing on OKC. At this point, one could easily make a case for either team. The champs seemingly have the momentum back on their side and are obviously very happy to be back home. The Thunder have already proven that they can win here though, while also showing that they can compete with this team every step of the way. While they obviously blew a golden opportunity, I don't expect them to just roll over tonight. Far from it. While the Warriors have actually gone just 2-6 SU their last eight when tied in a playoff series (0-1 SU/ATS this year) the Thunder are already 3-1 ATS in that situation these playoffs. The last two games have both been decided by single digits. I expect this one to come down to the wire and am grabbing the generous points. 10*

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I successfully backed the Raptors in both the previous two games here at Toronto. While I still have a lot of respect for the Raptors, I'm switching up for Game 6 and going with the Cavs. Throughout the earlier part of these playoffs, the Raptors were facing a lot of pressure. They'd underperformed in the playoffs in previous seasons and they were expected to do a lot better this year. They battled adversity and fought their way to the Eastern Finals. Now, having gotten this far, they can hold their heads high, regardless of what happens tonight. As great a season as they've had, I don't believe that the Raptors, who were destroyed 116-78 in Game 5, are quite ready to "take the next step." Off their anemic offensive showing in Game 5, it should be noted that Toronto is 0-6 ATS this season, after being limited to 85 or fewer points in their previous game. Most recently, after managing only 84 points in Game 1 of this series, they were blown out by 19 points in Game 2. On the other hand, the Cavs are 9-4 ATS the last 13 times that they held their previous opponent to 85 or fewer points, 20-9 ATS (22-7 SU) their last 29 in that situation. They don't want to have to go back to Cleveland to play a Game 7 and I don't expect that they'll need to. 10*

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Warriors were beaten so badly the last two games that many will likely be avoiding them tonight. Not me. They're still the champs and they're still an incredible 46-3 on this floor. Even with the Game 4 loss, the Warriors are still 5-1 ATS their last six when trailing in a playoff series, 47-27-3 ATS the past few seasons, when playing with 'revenge.' During that stretch, they're also 22-10-1 ATS as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. While winning the series won't be easy, the Warriors take the first step by bouncing back big tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. As you know, the Thunder destroyed the Warriors in Game 3 and lead the series 2-1. Obviously, OKC was the much better team last time out. That was only one game though and I'm betting on the champs to bounce back. Curry and co. have been here before. In fact, in last year’s playoff run, they trailed 2-1 two different times. Each time they bounced back. When trailing 2-1 against the Cavs, playing at Cleveland for Game 4, the Warriors responded with a 103-82 blowout win. Prior to that, after losing Game 3 against the Grizzlies by double-digits, the Warriors responded with a 101-84 victory, at Memphis, in Game 4. Keep in mind that this year’s team hasn’t lost twice in a row all season. They’re 19-8 ATS off a double-digit loss and 5-0 ATS the last five times that they were trailing in a series. After they lost the opening game of this series, I came back with a big play on the Warriors in Game 2. At the time, I closed my analysis with the following statement: "This is a special team and I expect them to remind everyone of that tonight." I feel the same way here. 10* GOW

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors sure aren't getting much respect. They've won four straight and 16 of their last 20 here. Their overall home record is far superior to Cleveland's road record: 39-11 to 28-18. They've also now beaten the Cavs three straight times on this floor. Yet, due to the majority of the betting public being enamored with Lebron and co., the oddsmaker is forced to again make the Cavs a fairly heavy favorite. I believe thats (again) providing excellent value with the home underdog. The Raptors confidence is restored. While they certainly want more, they've now done enough to hold their heads high - and I believe that the pressure they felt earlier in the playoffs has eased, as result. The Raptors held the Cavs to just 84 points (99-84) in Game 3. That's noteworthy as the Cavs are a money-burning 7-19 ATS the last 26 times that they scored 85 or less in their previous game. With the Cavs also 8-18 ATS their last 26 as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, I'm grabbing all those points. 10* 

I'm playing MINNESOTA on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) With the Royals listed as favorites on the money-line, we're able to get the Twins at quite a reasonable price on the run-line. I feel thats where the value lies in this one. The Royals are off back-to-back 1-run games. Kennedy's last start resulted in a 1-run win. Note that Kennedy got roughed up in his last road start and has a mediocre 4.02 ERA in five road starts, where he's allowed six of his seven home runs. Admittedly, Nolasco's numbers aren't that good. The Twins have won two of his three home starts though, the other resulting in a 1-run loss. (So, they'd be 3-0 if getting +1.5 runs in each of his starts here.) Nolasco pitched very well (at KC) against the Royals earlier, allowing just one run, on only three hits, through seven complete innings. He struck out five without walking a batter. That one also resulted in a 1-run loss, a 4-3 win for the Royals. I'm expecting AT LEAST another "cover" for the Twins tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on TORONTO. Needless to say, the Cavs have been very impressive in these playoffs and this series. That said, I expect them to finally taste defeat this evening. The Raptors are very well-coached, they've got a lot of depth, they play with passion and they've got an entire country behind them. I expect their very best effort here. The Cavs are only 8-17-1 ATS the last 26 times that they were listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, 4-7 ATS this season. Meanwhile, the Raptors were 2-0 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. (They won both games outright.) Despite being small underdogs each time, the Raptors beat the Cavs in both regular season meetings here this season. I'll gladly take the points but I'm expecting another 'upset' tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on TORONTO. Perhaps all the emotion from the previous series caught up with them. Perhaps, they were exhausted. Whatever the reason, the Raptors didn't show up for Game 1 of this series. Don't expect a repeat performance. The Raptors have been at their very best off a loss as they haven't lost two straight in well over a month. In fact, they're a perfect 6-0 SU off a loss in the playoffs. They're also 11-3 SU on the season, off a double-digit loss. The Cavs, on the other hand, were just 16-21 ATS this season, off a double-digit win. Look for them to have their hands full the entire way tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on SD on the Run Line (+1.5 Runs) This game has the lowest O/U line on the board and with an expected low score, every run takes on added significance. That said, with Pomeranz on the mound at Petco, getting an extra +1.5 runs with the Padres at a reasonable price is providing excellent value. Pomeranz is in outstanding current form. Indeed, he's 2-1 with a 0.50 ERA and 0.778 WHIP his last three starts. He'd be 3-0 if not for being on the wrong side of a 1-0 loss against Kershaw. Last time out, he struck out 10 Cubs in six shutout innings, allowing a mere three hits. In two home stars, he has yet to allow an earned run. Note that Pomeranz's lone 2016 start (4/25 at SF) against the Giants resulted in a 1-run SD loss. Cueto's lone 2016 start against the Padres came the following day (4/26) and resulted in a 1-run SF win. Even off b2b losses, the Padres are still 4-3 their last seven overall. Two of the three losses came by a single run. So, they'd be 6-1 their last seven, if getting +1.5 runs in each. In fact, prior to yesterday, their previous four losses had all come by a single run. Even with yesterday's loss, the Padres have still won 12 of the last 20 as a host in this series and they'd be 14-6 in those games, if getting +1.5 in each. I expect AT LEAST a "cover" again tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Thunder have shown that they're for real. Now, its time for the defending champs to flex their muscles. The Warriors had an extended layoff before Game 1 and perhaps that affected them negatively. Either way, they've been money off an upset loss all year, going 7-2-1 ATS and a perfect 10-0 SU. They're also 9-2 ATS (11-0 SU!) the last 11 times that they played with "revenge." Going back further finds them at a lucrative 46-26-3 ATS (59-16 SU) their last 75 in that situation. This is the first time that the Warriors have trailed in a series in these playoffs. However, it should be noted that they're a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last, when trailing in a playoff series. This is a special team and I expect them to remind everyone of that tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on TORONTO. While the teams split the first two meetings here - and also at Miami -  I expect homecourt to prove the difference this evening. Sure, the Raptors would have liked to have stolen Game 4. They've still got to be happy with the split there though as the series is now essentially a 'Best of 3' with the Raptors holding homecourt advantage. That only matters if they take care of business tonight though. I look for them to do just that. The Heat, now without both Bosh and Whiteside, remain a sub-500 team on the road. They're just 11-20-1 ATS the last 32 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. Admittedly, the Raptors haven't exactly thrived as favorites in these playoffs either. That said, I believe they're going to put it all together this evening. The Raptors haven't gotten strong play from their stars but their arguably superior depth has them still in the driver's seat. I expect an improved performance from Lowry, the rest of the supporting cast continuing to do their thing, to lead to a critical win and cover. 10*

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers won Game 3, again proving that they are capable of beating the Warriors here at Portland. Yet, even with Curry still listed as doubtful, the Blazers are even bigger underdogs for Game 4. Draymond Green kind of trash-talked the Blazers after Game 3 saying: "We'll be better. I'll be better. We'll win ... That team, they had doubt. I could tell they had doubt. And we didn't take advantage of it ... and that's on me." Green may be right that the Blazers had a little doubt. That doubt is gone though, as that Game 3 victory should do wonders for their confidence. Green's words should only add to their (Portland's) resolve. Note that the Blazers are an outstanding 28-10 SU/ATS the last 38 times that they were off an "upset" victory, a game where they won SU as an underdog. That includes a 13-4 SU/ATS mark their last 17 in that situation. Confidence restored, I like their chances and am grabbing the points. 10* 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers are a different team at home. They beat the Warriors here in the regular season and I expect them to be at their very best this evening. The Blazers, who average a healthy 207.5 ppg here, don't mind these high-scoring games here at Portland. They're 15-4 their last 19 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 210 or more. The Warriors have continued to win without the league MVP, who they'll have to do without for more game. I'll take the points but I expect Curry's absence to finally catch up with the Warriors here, the Blazers elevating their level of play and winning "outright." 10*

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks got embarrassed at Cleveland. I believe they're better than that and I expect them to show it in Game 3. While the Cavs are a fairly impressive 26-17 on the road, the Hawks are an even better 30-14 at home. The Cavs have outscored teams by a little less than four points per game on the road (102 to 98.1) the Hawks are outscoring teams by more than 6.5 points per game (103.4 to 96.8) at home. The last meeting here came down to the wire, the Cavs winning by two, in OT. The Hawks were small favorites in that game and they're small underdogs for this one. I feel that's providing excellent value. Look for a different Hawks team to bounce back with a 'statement' win. 10* 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Some have already written the Hawks off. I'm not among them. While they came up a little short at the end in Game 1, they were right there. This is a complete "team" and I believe they can still give the Cavs a scare in this series. Needless to say, an upset tonight would go a long way. Note that the Hawks played one of their best games of the first round in Game 2, a 17-point blowout. The Cavs haven't been too good off a big win this season, as they're only 14-20 ATS off a double-digit victory. I'm taking the points. 10*