Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on INDIANA. While they sometimes struggle to dominate lesser competition, the Pacers are typically at their best against the league's better teams. They're currently 20-10 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. After closing out their road trip with a win at Washington, when listed as small underdogs, I expect them to "come to play" again tonight. Note that Indiana is 5-1 ATS its last six off an "upset" victory. Also, note that the Pacers lost by just two against the Spurs here last season. 

While the Spurs, who are off back-to-back ATS losses, play tomorrow, the Pacers have the next few days off. They can go all out here. They don't often find themselves getting this many points at home, but the Pacers are 13-5 ATS their last 18 as home dogs in the 6.5 to 9 range over the years. I expect them to improve on those stats with at least another cover tonight. 10* best bet

I'm playing on STONY BROOK. Two days ago, the Stony Brook women's team beat the Hartford women's team by 18 points in the opening round of the America East Women's tournament. Now, the men meet (in the semis) and I expect an even wider margin of victory for the Seawolves. 

The Hawks did the Seawolves a favor by beating Albany in the opening round. Don't expect Stony Brook to treat them "nicely" as a result though. Since 2008-2009, the Seawolves have beaten the Hawks 16 of 17 times.

Yes, the Hawks are "pressure free." Hartford coach Gallagher noted: "We’re going to be the loosest group in America playing Monday night." Junior Pancake Thomas added: "Really no one expects us to be here, so like we’re not really supposed to be here. So we’re loose."

Being "loose" will only take you so far though. Eventually, superior talent wins out. The Seawolves won this season's regular season meeting by a combined 47 points, an average of 23.5 per game. I expect them to take care of business in blowout fashion once again. 10* B.M.

I'm playing on DETROIT. We're getting some extra line value with the Pistons due to the fact that they played yesterday. The back-to-back spot shouldn't scare us off though. In fact, the Pistons have arguably played some of their best ball this season, when playing their second game in two days. The last time that they were in a b2b spot, they dropped 114 points on the Raptors (no small feat) beating them by double-digits. Their previous b2b spot saw them win outright at Cleveland. Before that? A win and covers vs. the Knicks. Including those results, they're 4-0 ATS since late January, when playing the second of b2b games. 

The Blazers, who are playing the final leg of a 6-game road trip, have already had a successful road trip. Off a tough 2-point loss at Toronto on Friday, they could easily get caught looking ahead to the return trip home. The Pistons, on the other hand, can't afford to look past anything. They're currently in 9th in the East and badly need wins. 

After yesterday's game, Stan Van Gundy noted: "We should all be disappointed, it was ridiculous. We were just terrible. We didn't bring any energy to the game. We didn't play well at either end. It was an embarrassing performance." I expect the Pistons to respond with a much better effort today, en route to an important victory. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on Memphis. The Tigers may be locked into the #6 seed in next week's AAC Tournament but that doesn't mean that this isn't a big game for them. Really big, in fact. They could really use a road win and some momentum going into the tourney. Additionally, they've got payback on their minds after the Pirates shocked them at Memphis earlier this season. The Tigers were heavy favorites (-16.5) for that 1/24 game, one they fully expected to win. Needless to say, they haven't forgotten. Coach Pastner even admitted: "We owe East Carolina." 

The Tigers score 76.6 ppg and that number actually rises to 78.2 on the road. East Carolina averages only 68.9 ppg, just 66 in conference play. The Tigers are arguably better defensively too; they limit opposing teams to a 40% shooting mark, opposing teams shoot 44.5% against the Pirates. Note that ECU is also the worst rebounding team in the AAC. Payback time. 10* AAC G.O.Y.

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a big game for both teams. Due to sanctions by the NCAA, which restrict them from the postseason, the Mustangs will be playing their final game of the season, the final game ever for SMU for Nic Moore. Needless to say, Moore and co. would like to go out winners. That said, the game is arguably bigger for the Bearcats, who are on the bubble right now. Though they have 21 wins, the Bearcats are 0-3 against ranked teams. A victory here would be huge. While the Mustangs are certainly tough, the Bearcats very nearly beat them at SMU. A late rally by Moore and the Mustangs led to a 59-57 SMU win. I like the revenge-minded Bearcats to rise to the occasion, their best effort leading to an important win and cover. *10 Breakfast Club

I'm playing on ARIZONA STATE. 10* While they fought hard and still covered the spread, the Bears finally had their winning streak come to an end last game. Off that hard-fought loss and facing what will be a determined ASU team, I expect the Bears to stumble again. The Bears are just 1-4 ATS their last five off a Pac-12 loss, an ugly 6-18-1 ATS their last 25. While the Bears are off a potentially deflating loss, the Sun Devils come in off a potentially momentum-building win over Stanford. They beat the Bears here again last season, after blowing them out the year before. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Berkeley, I expect at least a cover tonight. 10* best bet

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Wildcats had their hands full with Cal last game but this one figures to be considerably easier. Stanford has lost six of its last seven road games. Every loss came by a minimum of nine points and the lone win came against Washington State, the worst team in the conference. This line may appear high but the Wildcats thrive as big favorites. They're 27-13 ATS (40-0 SU!) the last 40 times that they were home favorites of greater than a dozen points. That includes a 9-4 ATS mark when the line ranged from 12.5 to 15 here. They beat the Cardinal by 22 here last season and I expect a similar result this afternoon. 10* B.M. 

I'm playing on Charleston. When these teams met a couple of weeks ago, the Blue Hens were 1-16 in their previous 17 games while the Cougars had won six of eight. Playing on their homecourt, the Hens shocked their guests though, a loss that send the Cougars on a dowward spiral to close out their season. After that game, there was a bit of trash talk going on. Delaware's Marvin King-Davis commented: "It was no upset. We came into the game knowing we could win." Those type of comments won't sit well with the Cougars who figure to come in with a chip on their shoulder, looking to get back on track and prove that was an aberration. The bottom line here is that one team plays defense and the other does not. The Cougars allowed 59.2 ppg in conference play this season, the Hens allowed 78.4. Payback time. 10* Colonial Athletic GOY

writeup to follow shortly

I'm playing on Arizona. The Bears won by a point when these teams met at Berkeley. I expect a highly motivated Wildcats team to avenge that loss in a big way here. 

Recent results have worked in our favor to keep this line a little lower than it would have been, had these teams met a few weeks back. Cal has won seven straight while Arizona has lost b2b games. Those b2b losses don't worry me though. Rather, I expect them to have this team at its best. In this season's two previous instances when the Cats had lost b2b games, they responded by beating Washington and Oregon State by 49 combined points, easily covering the number in both games. 

In the game at Berkeley, the Bears got an unlikely performance from Jordan Matthews, one which very probably won't be duplicated. Coming off the bench, Matthews was 6 for 12 from beyond the arc, scoring a career high 28. (He normally averages less than half that.) 

Note that the Wildcats are 8-3 ATS (11-0 SU!) their last 11 when avenging an earlier road loss. 

The Bears are still 3-8 on the road, those wins coming at Washington, Washington State and Wyoming. Needless to say, Tucson will be a much tougher venue. The Cats have won 53 of their last 54 here and they haven't lost three straight since 2010. Payback time. 10* March. Pac 12 GOM

I'm playing on PHOENIX. Admittedly, the Suns have some issues these days. That said, I still feel this line is too high. The Heat, who are without Bosh these days, haven't been asked to lay a number this big all season. They were -12.5 point favorites for a November game here against the 76'ers, who were 0-13 at the time. Miami would win by just five points. With that result, they're 3-5 ATS the last eight times they were favored by more than a dozen points. Off a record setting performance and with a road game on deck tomorrow night, it may be easy to overlook the lowly Suns, a non-conference opponent who they already beat at Phoenix. 

While they lost big last time out, I follow every team very closely and have noticed that the Suns have been very competitive off a blowout loss, since the coaching change. (They haven't had b2b losses of greater than 13 points since late January.) Only four of their last 12 games have resulted in losses of more than 13 points and only two of those have been by more than 16. I feel the number is a little inflated and I look for this one to be closer than most will be expecting once again. 10* best bet

I'm playing on LA. I really like how this one sets up for the Clippers. First of all, instead of laying a big number like they normally would be here, they only need to win. They're home record (20-10) isn't what they'd like it to be, but its still better than OKC's (17-10) mark on the road. 

You may recall that these teams played an exciting game here just before Christmas. The Thunder won that game by a 100-99 score. That's noteworthy as Paul and co. are 13-7 ATS their last 20 in the revenge role, 7-2 ATS when attempting to avenge a home loss.

With such a high O/U number, its also worth mentioning that even with Monday's win vs. the Kings, the Thunder are still a surprisingly poor 10-20-1 ATS when playing a game with a total of 210 or greater. 

Prior to their game against the Kings, the Thunder had been involved in a thriller at Golden State, losing on a Curry three, at the buzzer, in OT. They host those same Warriors tomorrow night. While it would normally be hard to look past a team like the Clippers, this may be the exception. Note that the Clippers get tomorrow night off. Regardless of OKC's "focus level," I look for the Clippers to show they are not to be forgotten about with a "statement win." 10*

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While they just blew out the Suns at home yesterday, I don't feel the Hornets are ready to be laying this big a number on the road, even against the 76ers. A look at the Hornets' last five road games shows three wins, but none came by more than eight points. For the season, they're only 11-19 away from Charlotte. Even though yesterday's game was hardly "taxing," the Hornets still had to play. Therefore, its worth mentioning that they're only 2-7 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. The 76ers upset the Hornets here last February, as similar sized underdogs. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle once again. 10* best bet

I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. Wrong place, wrong time for the Red Raiders. The Raiders tested WVU in the 1/23 game (WVU rallied late to win by 4) at T.T. but this one figures to play out much differently. The Mountaineers entered the January meeting on a 2-game slide. Now, however, they're off back-to-back double-digit wins. Playing their final home game of the season, they aren't about to take their pedal off the gas. The Mountaineers, 13-7 ATS their last 20 when laying points, beat Texas Tech by 19 here last season.

A closer look at the game at Texas Tech shows that the Mountaineers got into foul trouble. The Red Raiders would connect on 32 of 34 free throws, a big reason why they were in the game at all. While thats certainly an impressive shooting percentage, its unlikely to be duplicated tonight. (With an average mark of 16 for 22 from the line on the road, they are a good FT shooting team but 16 makes is still a long way off from 32.) Without all those "free" points, keeping up will be considerably more difficult. 

The Red Raiders know they have a winnable home game vs. K-State on deck, something they can look forward to. Maybe that'll give them some comfort on the trip home. 10* Annihilator

I'm playing on Notre Dame. Off a blowout loss at Florida State and looking to avenge a 2/3 loss at Miami, the Irish should be hungry tonight. They're a perfect 5-0 SU (4-0-1 ATS) on the season, when off an ACC loss. Further motivation comes from the fact that the Irish know they can clinch a double-bye by winning this game and then taking care of business against NC State. 

Of course, there's also a lot at stake for the Hurricanes. They'll be without Ja'Quan Newton for this one though and they haven't been quite the same team on the road. The Irish haven't lost b2b games since the end of the 2013-2014 season. They beat the Canes here last season and I look for them to do so again tonight, covering the small number along the way. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. The Nets have burned me a couple of times lately and they cost me last night. Tonight, I get some back from them. While the Nets were busy battling the Clippers last night, the Lakers have had the past few days off. They'd been on a slump before that, so the break figures to come in handy. This is arguably worse than a regular b2b spot for the Nets too, as it will also be their third game in the past four days. They have just two wins in eight tries, when playing the second of b2b games. Even after failing to cover their last two, the Lakers are still 7-3 ATS their last 10. They've also 14-8 ATS against teams from the Eastern Conference, including an early season win at Brooklyn. This is the Lakers best chance to snap their skid for at least a week, perhaps for the rest of the season. They need to take advantage - and they wil. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on IOWA. Both these teams have been much better on their home court. Playing at home, I expect the Hawkeyes to have the edge. The second half of February wasn't kind to the Hawkeyes. The calendar has flipped to March though and I expect them to ring in the new month with a win. This is the Hawkeyes last home game (Senior Night) and they'll be looking to avenge a 2/11 loss at Indiana. That was the very game that triggered their slide. A big win will go a long way in making things right. It'll also delay (prevent?) the Hoosiers from claiming the outright Big Ten title. I expect the Hawkeyes to get that win, covering the small number along the way. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on DALLAS.  The Magic beat the Mavs at Orlando recently. I expect the Mavs to avenge that 2/19 game this evening. The Mavs were laying -12.5 points when they hosted the Magic last year and tonight they're laying less than half that. Things have changed for both teams, but not that much. The Magic are still a poor 10-18 on the road while the Mavs are still a solid 18-12 at home. While the Magic are 3-5 ATS their last eight as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, the Mavs are 5-2 ATS their last seven against teams with a losing record. Payback time. 10* Annihilator

I'm playing on NORTH FLORIDA. The Ospreys are off two close wins, one of them against these same Spartans. Those results have helped to keep this line a little lower than it could have been, as there's a big class difference here. The Ospreys, who did win by 16 at South Carolina Upstate earlier, were the best team in the conference this season and I expect them to let everyone know it in their tourney opener. In addition to dominating their own conference, the Ospreys put up 107 points against LSU while beating Illinois by double-digits. The Ospreys, 3-1 ATS their last four conf. tourney games, averaged 87 points against A-Sun teams this season. Bad news for the Spartans who score less than 70 on the road while giving up an average of 82.7. Blowout time. 10* B.M.

I'm playing on LA. The Clippers shook off a disappointing loss against Denver by defeating Sacramento by double-digits in their last game. I expect an even more convincing victory tonight.

While they've managed a couple of wins on their current trip, the Nets are not a strong road team. They're still 6-20 away from Brooklyn. They're also still just 3-5 ATS (1-7 SU) their last eight against teams with a winning record.

Both teams had yesterday off. However, while the Clippers also have tomorrow off while the Nets will face the Lakers. Knowing thats a far more winnable game, it won't be surprising if the Nets "save themselves" a little for that game. 

The Clippers are 14-8-2 ATS (18-6 SU) against teams from the Eastern Conference and they're 9-5 ATS their last 14 against teams which allow 99 or more points per game. 

While the last couple of meetings at Brooklyn have been relatively close, the Clippers won by 39 points the last time they hosted the Nets. I see another lopsided result in the cards on Monday. 10* GOM

I'm playing on USC. The Bears have been a spread-covering machine in February but I expect their final game of the month to prove to be their toughest. The Trojans have stumbled a bit lately but have still had an excellent season and are still a dangerous team. I believe that their quick guards present some matchup problems for the Bears and I expect them to be extremely determined to try and go out and win their final road game of the regular season. Note that the Trojans are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range.

Needless to say, at 17-0, the Bears have been very good at home. Last year's game here was decided by a single point though (The Bears were laying -7.5 for that February contest.) and this is a better USC team. ("According to research by J.D. Hamilton of the NCAA, USC's 9.0 game improvement from last season (12-20 to 19-9) is tied for 12th best in the country and tops among teams in the Power 5 conferences.") I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing the generous points. 10* Best Bet.

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers lost a tough one last time out and took me down with them. That won't stop me from backing them again today though. While the Blazers are playing well, they're up against an Indiana team which is angry after the Charlotte loss and which is out for revenge from an earlier blowout loss at Portland.

While the Blazers are only 11-16 away from Portland, the Pacers are still a solid 18-10 here at Indiana. Overall, Portland has been stronger against weak teams while Indiana typically brings its "A Game" against the league's better teams. With both these teams above the .500 mark, note the Pacers are 19-8 ATS against teams with a winning record while the Blazers are only 12-14 ATS against winning teams. 

The Blazers are off a win at Chicago yesterday and will now be playing their third game in the past four days. I expect the Pacers to be both "fresher" and "hungrier" and for that to ultimately lead to a win and cover. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on DETROIT. White its the Pistons who played yesterday, off an emotional win over Cleveland on Friday, I feel that its the Raptors who may be ripe for a letdown here. 

The Raptors are 3-5 ATS off an upset win and 12-20-1 ATS in that situation the past few seasons. As far as they're concerned, it doesn't get much bigger than a victory over the Cavs.

Some may be concerned about the back-to-back spot but I'm not too worried aboutit. Yesterday's game wasn't exactly taxing as the Pistons won comfortably. Also, they had two days off before yesterday AND they're already 2-0 SU/ATS in February when playing the second of b2b games. Last time that they did so, they won outright at Cleveland. 

The Pistons are playing well right now and Raptors coach Casey acknowledged that the addition of Tobias Harris (a player that has had success against Toronto when playing for Orlando) "adds quickness to a roster that is already fast and athletic."

The Pistons may have some added motivation due to the fact that the Raptors have already beaten them twice this season, including a blowout win here at The Palace. Payback time. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks have taken two of three meetings overall this season and they've long dominated the Hornets here at Atlanta. Playing at home, I expect them to have the advantage this afternoon. Both teams had yesterday off after each won on Friday. Charlotte beat the Pacers by one, at Indiana. The Hawks snapped a 3-game skid with a 15-point blowout of Chicago. While they've had a successful road trip, the Hornets are still only 11-18 away from Charlotte. This is the final game of their long trip and they could easily already be looking forward to getting home. On the other hand, the Hawks know that they start a road trip of their own after this, beginning with a game at Golden State. Given the Warriors' home record this season, Atlanta knows it better take care of business today or it could easily find itself mired in another losing streak after the game against the Warriors. I expect them to do just that. 10* Annihilator

I'm playing on Seton Hall. The Musketeers are saying all the right things about putting their big win against Villanova behind them. Sometimes, thats easier said than done though. I expect them their winning streak to come to an end against what figures to be a very determined Seton Hall squad.

While they stumbled against Butler a few games back, the Pirates are playing well right now. Off a 70-52 destruction of Providence, they've won seven of eight and they've covered nine of their last 11. They held the Friars to a mere 28.4% shooting. 

Xavier has already won more games than last year's Sweet 16 team did. Off the huge win and with bigger games on deck, starting with a revenge game against Creighton in their regular season home finale, I feel they won't be quite as hungry as their hosts here.

Derrick Gordon (known for being openly gay) will be honored for Senior Day. Playing in front of a sold out Prudential Center, l  I expect the Pirates to send him out a winner, in his final regular season home game. 10* breakfast club

I'm playing on UTAH. The Nets were able to get a win last time out. This is a much tougher venue though and I expect them to stumble. The Nets, who closed as small favorites against the Suns, have just two wins in their last 14 tries off an "upset win" and they're just 18-28-1 ATS (14-33 SU) their last 47 in that situation. 

While the Nets will be happy about earning a rare road win, the Jazz should be in a foul mood after the Spurs embarrassed them here in the last game. They already won by 22 at Brooklyn this season and they beat the Nets by 35 here last season. All signs point to this one turning ugly once again. 10* B.M Beatdown

I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Grizzlies are in the midst of a favorable stretch of games. Four of their last five were against the Lakers (twice) the Nets and the T-Wolves. The only difficult game, out of that 5-game stretch, was against Toronto and the Grizzlies got blown out in that one. Now, they get to face the Suns and Kings, before hosting the Jazz and then the Suns again. That's about as "easy" as a 9-game stretch as it gets in today's NBA. Out of that entire 9-game stretch, the Grizzlies only play b2b games once - and that happens to be here. I feel that it could catch up with them and that they could easily get caught going through the motions against the lowly Suns. The Suns are certainly going through some growing pains right now. They're still playing hard though and should be desperate to get their coach his first victory, particularly when considering that they take to the road for four games (and 6 of 7) after this. I expect their best effort to lead to at least a cover. 10* best bet

I'm playing on Santa Clara. The Tigers won a close one (73-72 in OT) when these teams played at Pacific earlier. Playing at home, I expect the Broncos to return the favor.

The Tigers snapped a 4-game losing streak last time out, rewarding the home fans by winning their final home game. The Broncos should be motivated to do the same. Note that the Tigers are 0-5 SU off a conference victory this season. In fact, they haven't had won two consecutive "lined games" all season long. (*They did win two in a row once but that included a victory over Bethesda-CA.)

The Broncos weren't happy with their last effort, a blowout loss at St. Mary's. They're 6-2 ATS their last eight at home, after playing at least three straght on the road though and they're also 6-1-1 ATS their last eight off a loss of 20 or more points, most recently winning outright at Loyola Marymount after getting trounced by BYU. I like their chances of bouncing back again here. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Providence. I won with Depaul last game. Playing their final "winnable" home game and playing a revenge game against lowly St. John's, I expected the Blue Demons to go all out and leave it all on the floor. They rewarded me by doing just that. I don't expect a repeat performance this afternoon though.

This time, its the Friars who are playing with revenge. This time, its the Friars with a considerable edge in talent. 

Providence was laying eight points for the earlier game at Depaul but lost by seven. That loss started a slide that has continued right up until today. I believe the Friars, 13-4 ATS their last 17 when playing with revenge and knowing they're now "on the bubble," will be looking to make things right. 

Coach Ed Cooley knows Providence hasn't been playing well and I expect him to have his team ready. "There's no mistaking that we're not playing as well as we need to. Hopefully we come back and get the group ready to play against DePaul on Saturday. It's that time of the year and we just haven't played well."

Don't worry Ed, I expect that they will. The Friars beat Depaul by 27 last February and I sense another blowout this afternoon.  10* B.M.

I'm playing on DALLAS. With the Nuggets off an upset win at LA against the Clippers and the Mavericks off a double-digit loss against OKC, some might be tempted to back the visitors here. Recent results suggest that would be the wrong move though. 

The last time the Nuggets were off an "upset win" was when they defeated the Pistons on 2/10. They'd follow up that victory with three straight SU/ATS losses, although it should be noted that the All-Star Break separated those games. All the same, they're just 6-11-1 ATS (4-14 SU) when off a SU win as an underdog.

Conversely, the Mavs tend to respond well to bad losses. The last time they were off a double-digit defeat, they won outright at Memphis in their next game. Including that result, they're 10-4 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss, 16-10 ATS (17-9 SU) after allowing 105 or more points. They won by 11 against the Nuggets here earlier, a game where they were laying -8.5 points. We're getting a much lower line to work with here and I'm expecting a similar result. 10* BM

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Hornets just embarrassed the Pacers here at Indiana a couple of weeks ago. Since then, the Pacers have won three of four, including a win at OKC and a win in their lone home game. That 2/10 game notwithstanding, the Pacers are much better at home than the Hornets are on the road. Indiana is 18-9 here, the Hornets are 10-18 away from Charlotte. That said, this line could easily be a little higher.

Due to their strong home record, the Hornets are still above .500, barely. That's noteworthy as the Pacers are 19-7 ATS against teams with a winning record. They're also 8-4 ATS (9-3 SU) the last 12 times that they were home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. Prior to the 2.10 meeting, the Pacers had long dominated the Hornets here. I expect them to resume that homecourt dominance this evening. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Manhattan. In his three seasons playing for the Jaspers, Jack Powers led his team to two NCAA Tournament appearances, including 1958 when they beat nationally ranked West Virginia and Jerry West at MSG. Powers, who finished with 1,139 points, will have his number retired at halftime of tonight's game, the first Jasper to have that done. Before the game, seniors Shane Richards and RaShawn Stores will be honored. I expect the combination of "Jack Powers Night" and "Senior Day," to provide the Jaspers with some added motivation to win tonight. The fact that they lost at Iona should provide even further incentive. 

While this is a big rivalry for both teams, Iona may not be quite as hungry. The Gaels are off b2b wins over the top two teams in the conference. They've got the regular season home finale on deck and bigger postseason games ahead. I'm taking the points with the motivated live dog. 10* Motivational Mismatch

I'm playing on UTAH. The Jazz were hammered in both this season's previous meetings. Both of those were at San Antonio though and Gobert wasn't around for either game. Tonight, they're rested, relatively healthy and playing at home. Big difference as the Jazz are an entirely different team here and they're now playing arguably their best basketball of the season. The Jazz have won seven straight here. While the last game went to OT, allowing Houston to score 114, they're allowing an average of only 88.1 ppg in regulation during the winning streak, holding teams to 40.8% from the field. The Spurs played last night and playing the seventh leg of an 8-game road trip. The Jazz beat the Spurs in both games here last season. With all due respect to San Antonio, I'm expecting another upset tonight. 10* roast

I'm playing on DEPAUL. One might assume that the Blue Demons hadn't been favored in some time. However, they were actually small favorites for last week's game at St John's. They got smoked by 15 points in that one though, which should provide some extra incentive tonight. The Red Storm would follow up last week's win vs. Depaul with a thriller against Seton Hall. Needing a win to keep their tournament hopes alive, the Pirates jumped out to a 19-point lead. To their credit, the Red Storm didn't quite. Instead, they rallied all the way back to take the lead, eventually losing 62-61. Off that thriller, a game that had meaningful NCAA implications for Seton Hall, and having fought so hard only to fall short, it may be tough to "get up" for a road game against lowly Depaul. Playing with recent revenge and playing likely their last "winnable" game, that should not be the case for the Blue Demons. They're 2-1 ATS their last three as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range and I expect another win and cover here. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on PHOENIX. Not exactly a dream matchup if you're a fan but I believe the Suns are in a good spot and offering excellent value. Both teams are pretty bad, obviously. Both play hard on most nights but are generally unable to compete against the top teams in the league. They'll both view tonight as a chance to earn a win. While a victory could actually impact their lottery chances negatively, I do expect both teams to be "trying." While the Nets don't even own their first round pick, I still believe that the Suns will be a little hungrier. They still haven't won a game since the coaching change and know that tonight offers their best chance in the forseeable future to get one. The Nets have lost seven straight away from Brooklyn and are 4-20 on the road for the season. The Suns, 19-8 ATS their last 27 against teams from the Atlantic are a profitable 28-17-1 the past few seasons, off a double-digit loss, 12-9 ATS this season. They were embarrassed last time out and I expect an entire team effort in this one. 10* best bet

I'm playing on Portland State. I don't believe that North Dakota is playing well enough right now to be laying this large a number. Not against a Vikings team which is coming off its best offensive game of the season and coming in full of confidence. 

Portland State put up 107 points last time out, its first triple-digit effort against a Div. 1 team this season, third overall. Cameron Forte led the way, shooting 14 of 20 while scoring 32 points and grabbing nine boards. He was one of five Vikings to reach double-figures. That victory came against an Eastern Washington team which had won seven straight, too, one of those a double-digit win against North Dakota.

Portland State coach Tyler Geving, who adjusted his lineup (going small) before the last game had this to say of his team's big win: "They deserve it. They have had good attitudes and worked hard. Nobody has been hanging their heads."

An expected fast tempo figures to favor the Vikings. Portland State is 10-6 ATS its last 16 with a total in the 150 to 159.5 range while North Dakota State is 5-8 ATS during the same span. 

Including the loss at Eastern Washington, North Dakota is 0-3 ATS its last three games, two of those decided by a single point. While an upset won't surprise, I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points. 10* Big Sky GAME OF YEAR

I'm playing on IOWA. In addition to playing at home, I believe that the schedule favors the Hawkeyes. Iowa has been off since 2/17. During that time, the Badgers have been involved in two hard-fought games, a loss at Michigan State and a win vs. Illinois. At this time of the season, the extra rest can certainly be helpful and I expect the Hawkeyes to have the fresher legs.

Wisconsin's Bronson Koenig's post-game comments (after the Illinois game) are telling: "I just didn’t have any legs pretty much the whole game. Everything felt right on but was short. Everybody in college basketball is tired." Those tired legs may make slowing down Iowa's Mike Gesell a little more challenging.

Needless to say, the Hawkeyes have been tough to beat here. Unbeatable, in fact. 

Four straight wins will give the Hawkeyes their first (outright) Big Ten (regular season) Championship in nearly 50 years. While accomplishing that feat won't be easy, I do expect them to take the first step tonight, picking up the cover along the way. 10* Big Ten G.O.Y.

I'm playing on Fresno State. The Bulldogs are rolling at the moment. They've won four of five, covering in all four of those victories. They're stepping down in class tonight and I believe that they're ready to deiiver a blowout. 

While the Bulldogs are 14-2 at home, the Falcons are 2-10 on the road. While Fresno State averages 77.9 points at home, Air Force manages a mere 60.1 ppg on the road. 

With an O/U line in the mid-130s, the expected pace figures to favor Fresno. The Bulldogs are 4-0 SU/ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s, the Falcons are 2-6 ATS (0-8 SU) when doing so. The Falcons kept it close in this season's first meeting; I don't expect them to be so fortunate tonight. 10* B.M.

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Lakers burned me in their last game, scoring a bunch of meaningless points in the closing seconds to eke out a cover at Milwaukee. I won't let that stop me from going against them tonight though as I believe their "good fortune" runs out in a big way here.

Even though they've been covering lately, the Lakers still aren't a good team and they still aren't winning. They've dropped six straight and those close losses eventually do take a toll. The Grizzlies are the typed of team that tends to take care of business against the league's lesser teams, too. Indeed, they're 25-4 SU and 18-10-1 ATS when matched up against sub-500 teams. That includes a 16-point blowout of these same Lakers here earlier. 

Knowing that they'll be hosting the Grizzlies on Friday, the Lakers may realize that they're more likely to win that one and already have a losing mentality coming in here. On the other hand, knowing they'll face the Lakers at LA on Friday, the Grizzlies know they need to take care of business tonight. They're 3-0-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the last four times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range and I expect them to improve on those stats here. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on CHICAGO. While a player like him can't be replaced, the Bulls seem to have adjusted to life without Jimmy Butler.  They're off back-to-back double-digit wins and have covered three straight. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to extend that streak for another day.

While the Bulls have had the past two days off, the Wizards played last night against New Orleans. Yes, Washington is 6-7 ATS (bad, but not terrible) when playing b2b games. However, with the pointspread not really a factor tonight, we can instead look at their 4-9 SU record, when playing the second of b2b games. Note that they're 0-2 over the last month, when playing a road game, after playing the previous day. 

While we don't necessarily think of them as this type of team, the Bulls are 5-1 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. I expect those stats to improve with a Chicago win on ESPN tonight. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on Utah. These teams met twice in January, once at Utah and once at Houston. The Rockets won both games. I expect the revenge-minded Jazz to return the favor on Tuesday. 

A look at the January games reveals that Favors didn't play in either for the Jazz and that Utah was struggling at the time. Also, Gobert missed the first and wasn't in game shape for the second, playing only 15 mins in his first game back in five weeks. Favors is back now and playing well. He makes this team much better. In his last two games alone, he's played 67 combined minutes, scoring 45 points while pulling down 18 boards. He also added seven assists and four blocks. Gobert is also back and contributing significantly. He's playing at least 30 mins a night and has a double-double in five of his last six games. 

With the exception of a couple of wins at Phoenix, against a depleted Suns team, road wins have been few and far between for the Rockets over the last month. The only other team they beat away from Houston was New Orleans, when they eked out a 1-point win back on 1/25. For the season, they're allowing 108.3 ppg on the road. 

The Jazz are tough to beat at home. They're 18-10 overall, including a 4-1-1 ATS mark as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, 12-4-1 ATS (15-2 SU) their last 17 in that role. During that time, they're also 34-18-1 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game. They're battling with the Rockets for a playoff spot and know they can't afford to lose a third game to them. They won't. 10* GOW.

I'm playing on Ohio State. The Spartans are playing well right now. The same can be said of the Buckeyes though. They've won four straight and are playing some of their best basketball of the season. That's not surprising, given that they're a young team which has been growing and improving as the season has gone on. The Buckeyes last home game resulted in a double-digit win against Michican. They know they play at Michigan State on 3/5 and they'll be determined to go out and protect their homecourt here, while showing the world and proving to themselves that they can play with the best in the conference.

While the Spartans are obviously a very strong team, they can be beaten. They're just 2-2 their last four on the road. Izzo is a great coach and is saying all the right things to his team about maintaining focus etc. Still, they've got bigger games ahead. In other words, I believe this game means more to Ohio State than it does to Michigan State. 

The Buckeyes have quietly been competitive here for months. Their only home losses since 12/1 have been against Maryland and Virginia and both came by six points or less. An upset here would move the Buckeyes into the NCAA playoff picture. They're 7-1 ATS at home when the O/U line ranged from 135 to 139.5, going 39-18 ATS in that role over the years. With nine straight meetings decided by single-digits, seven of those by four or less, I'm grabbing the points. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I successfully played against the Lakers last night and I'm going back against them here. The Lakers fought hard in yesterday's game, as they were in it almost the entire way. That was also the case in Friday's game against San Antonio. Off those two hard-fought losses and now playing their third game in four days, I feel they're ready to get blown out by a rested and revenge-minded Milwaukee team.

The Bucks have won three of four and covered four of five. They had yesterday off, after winning by eight at Atlanta the previous day. When they played at LA earlier this season, they were still riding high off their upset of the Warriors, the first team to beat Golden State. Perhaps they had a letdown. Either way, they got blown out (113-95) by the Lakers, a game which they haven't forgotten.

Despite playing hard, the Lakers have been terribly defensively on their current trip. No games have gone to OT yet they're allowing an average of 112 points, opposing teams shooting better than 49%. Their last three opponents have hit better than 50% from beyond the arc, after the Bulls lit them up from 3-point range yesterday. Bryant is supposed to play tonight (last game at Milwaukee) but thats not necessarily a positive, in the second of a b2b set.

The Bucks are 4-0 SU/ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. As of this writing, the O/U line is sitting right in the middle of that range; I'm expecting a blowout. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Wisc. Milwaukee. Off a 34-point destruction of Cleveland State, the Panthers come in full of confidence. While the line may initially seem high, keep in mind that the Panthers already won by 16, at Youngstown State. Last year, the teams were more equal (line was 3.5) and the Panthers still beat the Penguins by 15 here. 

The Panthers know if they can beat Valparaiso in their next game, they're likely to finish with 20 wins. But they also know they need to take care of business here first and will look to keep the positive momentum going by keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

The Penguins are 6-17, the past few seasons, when playing a team with a winning record, after at least 15 games of the season had been played. During that stretch, the Panthers (17-11) are 14-7 ATS when playing a team with a losing record, after at least 15 games. They typically take care of conference weaklings, as they did against Clev. State. 

Youngstown State (10-18) qualifies as the Pens are really struggling right now. Playing their final road game of the regular season, the Penguins could easily already be thinking about their final two home games. The Penguins were very hot from the outside in their last game, going 12 for 19 (63%) from beyond the arc. That still wasn't enough. They turned the ball over 15 times and lost by 17 points, their fifth loss in six games. The lone win was at home vs. 5-21 Illinois-Chicago, the worst team in the conference. They're not likely to hit better than 60% from beyond the arc again and another blowout appears imminent. 10* B.M. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bulls may be without a few key players but they still had enough to beat a good Toronto team by double-digits last time out. I believe that they've still got enough to do the same to the Lakers.

The Lakers have been on a nice roll at the betting window, as they've mostly been competitive in their losses. They're still losing though and one game they weren't competitive in was the game against the Bulls on 1/28. Chicago won by 23. It should be noted that they didn't rely on Butler to dominate. Rather they got a big game from Gasol with solid contributions from the likes of Gibson, McDermott and Moore, all of whom will be available tonight. 

In terms of line value, the Bulls' injuries (and the recent Lakers' ATS winning streak) have worked in our favor, bringing the line down lower than it even was for last month's game at LA. The last meeting here at Chicago saw the Bulls win by 20, Gasol leading the way with 23 points and 13 boards. I expect him to have another big day against his former team, leading the Bulls to another win and cover. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. The Nets played the Hornets tough at Charlotte earlier in the season, losing by five points. For today's home game, we're actually getting more points to work with (for the Nets) than we were for that road game. For a team that's showing signs of coming around, I believe thats providing us with excellent value. 

Admittedly, the Nets have some issues and they are having a tough season. That said, they're off a double-digit win over the Knicks on Friday and have quietly won three of their last four games here, while going 5-3 ATS their last eight overall. With their longest road trip of the season on deck and knowing that road wins have been hard to come by, the Nets know they could badly use another victory here before they go. 

Speaking of road trips, the Hornets are playing the third leg of a 6-game trip. Having already won the first two games and with the Cavs coming up next, it may be easy to look past lowly Brooklyn. 

While Charlotte averages a healthy 102 ppg, the Nets are 6-2 ATS their last eight against teams that score 99 or more. They're also averaging 106 ppg over their past five, having hit triple-digits in six of their last eight. I'm grabbing the points. 10* best bet

I'm playing on OKC. The Cavs won a close one when these teams played at Cleveland in December. I expect the revenge-minded Thunder to return the favor this afternoon. 

While the Cavs are a respectable 16-10 at home, the Thunder are a much better 25-6 at home. Cleveland averages 99.7 ppg on the road, OKC averages 108.7 at home. 

The Cavs, 2-8 ATS when playing with two day's rest, are 2-5 ATS their last seven. They've won two in a row against the Thunder but both games were at Cleveland. The Thunder won the last meeting here by nine. Prior to Friday's loss against the Pacers, they'd won nine straight here. They're still 14-3 their last 17 games, ALL 14 of those wins coming by a minimum of three points. 

It should be noted that the Cavs are expected to be without newly acquired Frye and that they may be without Shumpert. That may not sound like a big deal but Shumpert is a good defender and the Cavs could use all hands on deck here. If Shumpert were to play, he may be at less than 100%.

Lue had this to say of him: "Shump, being our best defender on ball, we need him. He's got to guard both players." With or without Shumpert, there's no guarding OKC's dynamic duo. Payback time at Chesapeake Energy Arena. 10* Main Event 

I'm playing on St. Peter's. Monmouth is a good MAAC team which is having a very good season. That said, I believe that this is a very tough spot for the Hawks.

Both teams saw winning streaks snapped last time out. The Peacocks had won four straight before losing by a single point at Quinnipiac on Thursday. While close losses like that can sting, the Hawks are in a much worse "situational" spot. They played on Friday (as opposed to Thursday) so are playing with one less day's worth of rest. (Note that the Peacocks needed that extra day's rest as they had to play a make-up game on Wednesday.) Having won eight straight, the Hawks were playing their biggest game of the season. In fact, it was being billed as their biggest game in a decade. Here were a couple of comments from Monmouth players, prior to that game: 

Justin Robinson: "I expect it to be pretty packed before we come out the first time for warm-ups. A couple of students told me they were camping out all day before class and all that. People are very excited, especially since we played them the first time. I've tried to block it out, but you can't block it out anymore."

Josh James: "I expect the atmosphere to be like no other This game, the anticipation for this game is unreal. People have been talking about it since the day after we played them. People have been coming into get their vouchers, and it's only Wednesday, so you know they're fired up to watch us play."

What happened? Playing in front of all their excited fans, the Hawks got blown out right out of the gate. (That suited me just fine as I had Iona!) Having just failed to show up for such an emotional game, less than 48 hours ago, I believe the Hawks are going to struggle here. Note that they're 9-14 ATS off a conference loss the past few seasons. 

The Peacocks, who have won four straight here at home, are 9-4 ATS when getting points. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Monmouth, I expect their best effort here. 10* SITUATIONAL GOY

I'm playing on UC Irvine. This is a very big game in the Big West. In fact, its the first time in more than a decade that two Big West teams both with 20 more more wins will meet in the regular season. While no one will clinch the league title today, the winner will have a leg up and be in the driver's seat for top seed in the upcoming tournament at Honda Center. I expect homecourt to provide the Anteaters with the advantage. 

Under coach Russell Turner, the Anteaters have become an "elite" program in this conference. With that comes a sense of pride. They've now won 20 or more games for four consecutive seasons. They've made the postseason three straight years and made it to the Big Dance for the first time last season. They have every intention of getting back there and know that this is the team likely to be standing in their way. Note that they beat basically this same Hawaii lineup in the finals last season. 

The Warriors embarrassed the Anteaters at Hawaii recently and that won't sit well with Turner. Note that the Anteaters are 2-0 ATS the past couple of seasons when attempting to avenge a road loss of 20 or more points. 

Turner, who certainly doesn't want to lose both reg. season games against a team with a 33-year old first-year coach, had this to say about today's game: "It’s a game for first place in the league, against a team that just beat us; it’s on national TV, we expect a big crowd and there’s a lot on the line, so yeah, it’s a big game."

The Anteaters are clicking right now. They shot 76% in the second half of their last game, one of their best shooting performances in years. They've scored 96 and 93 their past two games. Payback time. 10* (Top Big West play)

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. The Red Raiders have really been playing well of late. I expect their winning streak to come to an end here though. 

Off three consecutive victories over Top 25 opponents (for the first time in school history) and having seen their fans storm the court after beating #3 Oklahoma, I believe the Red Raiders are ripe for a letdown. 

The Cowboys saw what the Raiders did to Oklahoma and they'll be ready. They've beaten Texas Tech 23 of 26 times here at Stillwater and 43 of 59 times overall. While they've struggled a bit lately, they haven't quit playing hard. They lost by only two points at Texas Tech and they'll be itching for some payback tonight. 

Tubby Smith had this to say of the Cowboys: "I don’t think we've beaten them at Oklahoma State since I’ve been here. We have a very poor record in Stillwater ... They’re a team that’s been struggling, but they’ve played everybody close. They’ve played Kansas tough, and we’re in the game though Kansas pulled away at the end. They had the big win against Kansas State last weekend in overtime. We know what they’re capable of. We know how lucky and how fortunate we were  ... "

The party ends for the Red Raiders as the revenge-minded Cowboys continue their homecourt domination in the series. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The Nuggets entered the break as the hotter team. However, as we saw with the Jazz, in last night's game at Washington, that doesn't always translate to success in the first game back from the layoff.

Like the Wizards, who were off a loss before the break and who had dropped nine of their previous 13, the Kings had been struggling before the break. They were just 2-8 their previous 10 games, which led to rumors that George Karl would lose his job. Karl's still around though (although he did lose an assistant coach) and I like the Kings to mimic the Wizards with a rejuvenated effort in their first game back.

Like Washington, Sacramento is still thinking playoffs. The Kings are within four games of the eighth and final playoff spot. However, a look at the schedule shows that they've got some difficult games coming up, making taking care of business tonight all the more important. Next up, after another few days off, is a rematch with these same Nuggets, at Denver. So, they'll want to protect their homecourt here. After that, they host three of the top teams in the West, SA, LAC and OKC. That's followed by a tough road trip. Of all those games, this is likely the only one in which they Kings will be favored. Again, that makes taking care of business critical tonight. 

Of course, the Nuggets are in a similar spot in the standings as the Kings, so they'll be viewing this as a chance to gain valuable ground too. That said, they've got a somewhat easier upcoming slate than Sacramento does and they know they'll host the Kings again on 2/23. I don't expect them to have quite the same sense of urgency as the Kings here. 

Only Golden State and OKC score more points than Sacramento. While the Nuggets are 11-17 on the road, the Kings can move back above .500 at home with a win tonight. I expect them to do so, covering the small number along the way. 10* GOW

I'm playing on IONA. These teams haven't liked each other for some time now and they got in a fight after last month's meeting at Iona. Both teams have had today's rematch circled since the last meeting. The stakes are even higher than that though, as Monmouth can secure the regular season title with a win. 

A couple of comments from Monmouth players about the excitement surrounding the game:

Justin Robinson: "I expect it to be pretty packed before we come out the first time for warm-ups. A couple of students told me they were camping out all day before class and all that. People are very excited, especially since we played them the first time. I've tried to block it out, but you can't block it out anymore."

Josh James: "I expect the atmosphere to be like no other This game, the anticipation for this game is unreal. People have been talking about it since the day after we played them. People have been coming into get their vouchers, and it's only Wednesday, so you know they're fired up to watch us play."

As much as the Hawks would like to win in front of their home fans, all the excitement does bring a lot of added pressure. The Gaels are a very good team, that's been playing well, arguably better than they were prior to the last meeting. (Off a 78-59 win, they're 5-1 SU/ATS their last six.) They'd badly like some payback. Nobody's beaten the Gaels by more than three points in nearly a month. Nobody's beaten them by more than eight points since before Christmas. 

Speaking of close games, both last season's "regular season" meetings were decided by three or fewer points. The first had a score of 92-89 and the second was 69-68. I won't be surprised to see this one also come down to the wire and am grabbing the points with the revenge-minded visitors. 10* best bet

I'm playing on UConn. As you're aware, the Mustangs aren't eligible for the postseason. While they've still managed an excellent season thus far, they've been inconsistent recently. Their last three victories have all been followed by losses. Off a big win against Gonzaga, I expect them to struggle against what should be a highly motivated UConn squad.

The Huskies could badly use a win against a ranked opponent; assuming they take care of business with the rest of their winnable games, a win here could potentially be enough to lock up an automated birth. A loss, however, and things become considerably more tense. 

Note that the Huskies are 2-0 SU/ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range, 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) their last five in that situation.

The Mustangs have had some recent success in the series. The Huskies get some payback tonight. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. After winning with the 'over' in their previous game, I successfully played against the Wizards in their final game before the break, a 99-92 loss at Milwaukee. One has to be flexible, willing to play on/against any team at any time. That said, in their first game back from the break, I now believe that its the Wizards who are providing us with value.

Last month's snowstorm didn't do the Wizards any favors overall but should work in their favor tonight. Both teams play tomorrow, their regularly scheduled game back from the break. However, while the Wizards will remain in Washington, the Jazz will have to get back to Utah. Then, their next game is in Portland. So, they may already be grumbling a little bit about the next few days and having their break cut a little short. Of course, the Wizards play three games in three days, so things aren't exactly "convenient" for them either. (Maybe they can draw inspiration from the fact that the last team that played 3 in 3 won all three of them.) All the same, I do think that playing this first one at home and not having to travel tomorrow favors Washington, if only for the fact that the Jazz aren't a good road team

While homecourt may not mean a whole lot to the Wizards, it does to the Jazz. They're tough to beat at Salt Lake City but only 9-16 on the road. That includes a money-burning 2-5 SU/ATS mark as road underdogs of three or fewer points. 

The Wizards know that a fast start to the second half is critical. Wall, who had a 24/9/6 line the last time that the Wizards faced the Jazz, commented: "I really think these three tough games we can really go 3-0 or 2-1, and it's going to help us with our season. If it's vice versa, we're in a tough situation."

Washington has won three straight in the series, including a 9-point win here last season. The Wizards are also 3-1 SU/ATS, including a victory over the Spurs, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. I expect their best effort tonight and that to lead to another win and cover. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. I've won with both these teams recently and feel that I've got a pretty good read on each right now. I successfully backed Duke on 2/8 when the Blue Devils knocked off Louisville. The Blue Devils would follow up that win with a SU victory (non-cover) at Virginia, a game I stayed off of. I also successfully backed the Tar Heels lately, as I played on them in their Valentine's Day blowout of Pittsburgh. 

Its been almost exactly two years (2/20/14) since the Tar Heels last defeated Duke. During that span, the Blue Devils have beaten UNC three times. Needless to say, the Tar Heels are dying for some payback. The Tar Heels haven't lost here since Duke visited last season, winning 13 straight on this floor since that game. 

Duke was #3 when it played here last season, while UNC was #19. Those numbers have essentially been reversed this time. Note that UNC easily could have won either meeting last season, too. They let the game at Durham get away from them, blowing a 10-point lead in the final four mins and losing by two in OT. The game here was competitive throughout, with the Tar Heels leading at the break. Note that the Blue Devils got 47 of their points from Okafor, Winslow and Cook, all of who have since moved on. Meanwhile, Amile Jefferson led the Blue Devils in rebounding in that game but he's been out since December. In other words, this is a vastly different Duke team from the one which won here last season. 

While they've fared reasonably well in games they're expected to win, the Blue Devils haven't performed well as underdogs this season. They've been getting points twice this season and both times they lost by double-digits. Listed as 4-point underdogs at Miami, they lost by 11. Listed as 1-point underdogs for a neutral site game vs. Kentucky, they also lost by 11. 

In my analysis for the UNC/Pittsburgh game, I mentioned that I felt the Tar Heels had received their "wake up call" from the close victory over Boston College, suggesting that it'd bring them some positive momentum. Here's a small excerpt from that writeup: "...The Tar Heels survived a scare last game. I believe that'll prove to be a wake-up call and I like the fact that they were able to pull out the win. Forward Theo Pinson commented: "I don't think people realize how big that was for us. Boston College hasn't won a lot of games, but we were in a packed house, we were down, everything was going their way."..."

I believe the Heels did receive their wake-up call. Now, off a momentum-building blowout, I look for them to exorcise some demons with a statement win over their archrival. 10* GOY

I'm playing on PROVIDENCE. I successfully played against the Friars in their last game. That result worked out pretty much perfectly, as far as I was concerned. Providence jumped out to a huge early lead only to see the Hoyas battle all the way back. Providence would eventually win by three, G-Town managing the cover. 

I went against Providence for a number of reasons in that one. First, the Friars were off three straight losses and I felt their confidence may be a bit shaken. Second, the Hoyas were looking to avenge an earlier loss at G-Town. Third, the G-Town/Providence series had been extremely close which favored "taking" points rather than "laying" them; four straight meetings in that series have now been decided by four or less.  Additionally, I mentioned that the Friars had one of the worst home records in the Big East.

NONE of the above are factors for this game though. The Friars are no longer on a losing streak. The fact that they nearly blew the lead but then hung on should help provide some positive momentum. This time, its the Friars who play with "revenge," not the other way around. Note that Xavier, which has revenge game of its own on deck, has only one win of greater than eight points in its past four games and only two wins of greater than eight points over its last nine games. Speaking of tight games, while not quite as "nail-biting" as the recent GTown/Providence games, the Xavier/Providence series has also been close. In fact, they've faced each other five times since 2014 and ALL five meetings were decided by single-digits. Once again, that favors "taking" points rather than "laying" them. That's particularly true with the Friars sporting a 7-3 ATS mark as underdogs. 

Going back a bit further finds the Friars at an impressive 25-13 ATS (19-19 SU!) the last 38 times that they were getting points and that includes a 4-1 ATS mark as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on BAYLOR. Some might be surprised that the Bears opened as small favorites. After all, the Cyclones are off a big 85-75 win over Texas while Baylor was just shocked by 84-66 by lightly regarded Texas Tech. I expect the Bears to bounce back though and believe that they're providing us with excellent value.

Baylor's loss against Texas Tech was indeed pretty ugly. In the Bears' defense, the Red Raiders did also just beat these same Cyclones in their previous game. Iowa State was able to bounce back from that loss and that's something that Baylor has been pretty good at this season too. The Bears resonded to their last loss with a double-digit win at K-State. On the season, the Bears are 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS in lined games, when playing at home after having lost their previous game. All three wins were by double-digits. 

True, the Cyclones will be looking for some payback, as the Bears beat them earlier. That doesn't necessarily mean much though. Over the years, the Cyclones are an ugly 14-47 SU when attempting to avenge a home loss, 0-2 SU/ATS their last two. The fact that they beat them earlier should give the Bears some confidence coming in.

While they do have a winnable road game (at TCU) still on the schedule, the rest of the slate is tough. The Bears will play at Texas and Oklahoma while hosting Kansas and WVU. That makes taking care of business here all the more important. 

The Bears have been at their best off a bad defensive effort. They're 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 10* Main Event

10* A&M. Analysis before 7am PST

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Exactly two weeks ago, Wake Forest's women's team visited the Petersen Center and defeated the Panther women by double-digits. I expect the men to avenge that loss in a big way this evening. 

I successfully played against the Panthers in their last game. That was a road game at UNC though. This is a home game against Wake Forest. Big difference. The Deacons haven't won a game in more than a month and they're 1-4 ATS their last five. The only team worse than WF in the conference is Boston College. The Deacons face the Eagles next, so could already be thinking about a rare "winnable" game. 

Speaking of winnable games, a look at the Panthers' upcoming schedule shows that this is by far their most winnable game. The only other remaining home games are against Duke and Louisville, neither of them a sure thing, by any means. That means that if the Panthers want to snap their losing streak that they better take care of business here. They will. 10* BM

I'm playing on UNC Greensboro. While the Terriers have been playing well recently, they no longer dominate the Southern Conference the way they once did. I expect their winning streak to come to an end here.

Homecourt is very important to both these teams. The Terriers have only played four road games since mid-January. They won one by three points and lost the other three outright. They're 6-2 ATS at home but 5-9 ATS away. 

Its been a similar story for the Spartans. They're 4-8 ATS on the road but 5-3 ATS at home. They're 8-3 ATS in home lined game, dating back to last February.

Given the home/away numbers, its not surprising to find out that the Terriers won when the teams met at Wofford. Facing a team which they already handled and with Furman on deck, a team which handed them a 1-point loss, I believe the Terriers could get caught looking ahead here. 

Not so for the Spartans, who have been getting kicked around by this team for years. I believe they're a little more talented than their record indicates and I look for them to step up and deliver some payback. 10* Southern Conf. GOY

I'm playing on WRIGHT STATE. I successfully played against Oakland last Thursday. While I respect the Golden Grizzlies, I believe this will prove to be another good spot to go against them. 

The Golden Grizzlies have won seven of eight and six straight on the road. The recent loss vs. Milwaukee shows they can be beaten though. They'll be in a hostile environment this afternoon, as the Raiders have won 10 straight at the Nutter Center.  Off a blowout win and with a huge showdown at Valparaiso on deck, this could be a tough spot for the Grizzlies. 

The Raiders figure to be extremely motivated for this one. Not only is Oakland ahead of them in the standings but the Golden Grizzlies handed them their worst loss in conference play last month, at Oakland. Coming off a win at Valparaiso, against the top team in the conference, the Raiders also figure to be extremely confident. 

After today's game, the Raiders close out the regular season with three winnable games. A victory here would give them a legit chance of reaching 20 wins on the season. It would also put them on track to tie the school's Div 1 record for most home wins (14) in a season, as their only remaining home game comes against Northern Kentucky, a team which is 2-10 away from home. I like the Raiders' chances of tying that record and I look for them to take the first step here. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on ARIZONA. I successfully played against the Trojans in their loss at Tempe on Friday night. At the time, I said that I expected them to fall out of the top 25 rankings by the end of the weekend. Tucson is a far more difficult venue, I expect the Trojans to stumble again this evening.

Here's an excerpt of my analysis from Friday, as it relates to the Trojans' struggles on the road and to what happened the previous time they entered the Top 25:

"Considering that they only won three Pac-12 games all of last year, the Trojans are having a terrific season. In fact, the Trojans have turned things around so much that they find themselves with a Top 25 ranking, for just the second time in seven years. Enjoy it while you can USC fans, as I'm afraid your stay in the Top 25 will be short-lived. You may recall what happened the last time that the Trojans were ranked, as I also played against them that time. As soon as the Trojans entered the Top 25, they proceeded to lose back-to-back road games, at Oregon and Oregon State. Once again, the Trojans will have to play b2b road games with their Top 25 ranking. Once again, I expect them to struggle. True, USC will try and learn from last month's mistakes. The Trojans just aren't the same team on the road though. Since winning at Washington State on New Year's Day, the Trojans have dropped every game which was played outside of Southern California. No matter how much they talk about it avoiding it, having just entered the Top 25 can cause a team to start patting itself on the back a little. Also, a huge Valentine's Day game vs. Arizona could easily be cause for looking ahead ... "

While USC struggles on the road and in the state of Arizona, the Wildcats are very tough to beat at home. They outscore teams by an 83.9 to 63.9 margin. The Wildcats, who beat USC by 30 here last season, will have payback on their minds from last month's 103-101 (4-OT) loss at USC. They're 8-2 ATS (10-0 SU) the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss and I'm expecting them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. While the Tar Heels haven't done a very good job at the betting window recently, I really like how this one sets up for them.

Off three straight road games, the Tar Heels return home, where they're undefeatead on the season. Their last game here resulted in a 27-point win; they've outscored teams by an average of more than 20 points here. 

The Tar Heels survived a scare last game. I believe that'll prove to be a wake-up call and I like the fact that they were able to pull out the win. Forward Theo Pinson commented: "I don't think people realize how big that was for us. Boston College hasn't won a lot of games, but we were in a packed house, we were down, everything was going their way."

While the Tar Heels are off a potentially momentum-building close win, the Panthers are off a potentially deflating close loss. They've lost two straight for the first time this season and this is no place to go to try and snap a losing streak. Note that Pittsburgh is now 0-4 against ranked teams.

The Tar Heels haven't forgotten that Pitt knocked them out of the ACC Tournament two years ago. Nor have they forgotten that the Panthers blew them out at Pittsburgh, on Valentine's Day, last season. Payback time this afternoon. 10* Breakfast Club

I'm playing on SMU. One could make the case that this game is more important for Gonzaga. After all, the Bulldogs could really use a big road win over a Top 25 opponent to bolster their tournament resume, in the event that they don't receive an automatic bid. Meanwhile, the Mustangs aren't even eligible for the postseason, due to a ban instated by the NCAA. I believe Larry Brown will have his team ready though and that they will in fact view this as a "very big game."

The Mustangs know this is a televised game against a big name non-conference opponent, their last such opportunity. They'd love to get back on track and to prove to the national audience that their 18-0 start was no fluke. Larry Brown, who missed the start of the season due to being suspended for lying to the NCAA, figures to want this one as much as anyone and I expect him to have his players ready. 

SMU's Markus Kennedy noted: "We've got to get back to where we were at in the beginning of the year where we knew what we were about and we knew what we were going to go out there and do," said , who scored all 13 of his points in the second half. "It's real easy just to get complacent and just to be nonchalant about the rest of the season. We can't let that happen."

Keep in mind that last year's SMU team qualified for the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1993, nearly knocking off UCLA (lost by 1) when it got there. One of last year's losses came at Spokane, against these same Bulldogs. SMU hasn't forgotten and will be looking for some payback on its home floor. 

Note that Gonzaga, 2-6 ATS in non-conference lined games, will be playing its fourth straight on the road. I believe it may catch up with them here.

The Mustangs, who are 11-0 SU in non-conf. games, are 8-4 ATS (10-2 SU) the last dozen times they were off a conference loss. They're a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS off a loss this season too, both wins coming by double-digits. I expect their best effort here and for that to lead to another win and cover. 10* Non-Conf. GOY

I'm playing on UCONN. The Golden Hurricane won by nine points when these teams met at Tulsa. Playing on their home floor, I expect the Huskies to return the favor this evening.

The timing of this year's games was very similar to last year's. This year, the Huskies played at Tulsa on 1/14. The previous season, they played at Tulsa on 1/13. This year, the Huskies host the Golden Hurricane on 1/13. Last year, they hosted them on 1/12. 

Just as the dates are similar, I expect the results to also be similar. As mentioned, Tulsa won this season's first meeting by nine. Last year, Tulsa won the first meeting by eight. Last season, a year ago yesterday, the Huskies avenged that loss in decisive fashion. Laying -3.5 points, they won by 25. Including that blowout, the Huskies are 8-4 ATS the last 12 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. 

The Huskies are off a devastating loss against Temple. They've bounced back from their last four losses by winning their next game though and their postseason hopes remain in tact. Coach Kevin Ollie had this to say of his team: "This is what the character of a champion is all about. This is what I believe. We do our best work in the dark, and this is a dark time right now. We're going to go back to work like we've always done ... We've been down this road before. We'll be ready and play great against Tulsa."

The Huskies used a dominant defense to limit Tulsa to only 45 points in that one and I expect their defense to be the difference again here. While Tulsa is allowing 73 ppg on the road this season, UConn is permitting a mere 59.8 per game at home. I expect the Huskies to "be ready" and for them to "play great" en route to an important win and cover. 10* AAC GOY.

I'm playing on ARIZONA STATE. Considering that they only won three Pac-12 games all of last year, the Trojans are having a terrific season. In fact, the Trojans have turned things around so much that they find themselves with a Top 25 ranking, for just the second time in seven years. Enjoy it while you can USC fans, as I'm afraid your stay in the Top 25 will be short-lived. 

You may recall what happened the last time that the Trojans were ranked, as I also played against them that time. As soon as the Trojans entered the Top 25, they proceeded to lose back-to-back road games, at Oregon and Oregon State. 

Once again, the Trojans will have to play b2b road games with their Top 25 ranking. Once again, I expect them to struggle.

True, USC will try and learn from last month's mistakes. The Trojans just aren't the same team on the road though. Since winning at Washington State on New Year's Day, the Trojans have dropped every game which was played outside of Southern California. No matter how much they talk about it avoiding it, having just entered the Top 25 can cause a team to start patting itself on the back a little. Also, a huge Valentine's Day game vs. Arizona could easily be cause for looking ahead. 

The Sun Devils know all about struggling away from home. They are coming off a win at Washington State though, their first Pac-12 road win in nearly a year. I believe it'll provide them with some positive momentum and confidence. They'd desperately like their first conference winning streak of the season and know that opportunities to beat ranked teams, ones they actually can beat, don't come around often. 

The Sun Devils haven't forgotten last month's loss at USC. Nor have they forgotten that the Trojans upset them in last year's Pac-12 Tournament. They've beaten the Trojans seven of the last eight times here at Tempe, including three straight. I expect them to do so again tonight. 10* GOW

I'm playing on INDIANA. Iowa comes in with the higher ranking. However, I believe the Hoosiers are favored for good reason. 

These teams will meet again at Iowa on 3/1. Knowing that Iowa is undefeated at home, the Hoosiers know they need to take care of business here. They too, are undefeated on their home floor. 

Iowa has four losses away from home. They average 76.8 points when playing away from home. That's certainly respectable but it pales in comparison to the 91.1 ppg which the Hoosiers are averaging here at Indiana. 

While this year's team is certainly playing well, its still worth mentioning that Iowa is only 10-18 (8-20 SU) the last 28 times it was a road underdog of three or fewer points. During the same stretch, Indiana is 17-7 ATS (18-6 SU) as a home favorite of three or less. In what figures to be a fast-paced game, I look for homecourt to be the difference. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Both these teams eked out a win in their last game. The Bucks beat Boston by one; the Wizards won by three at MSG. Playing at home, I expect the revenge-minded Bucks to be the team which builds off their victory and which carries a winning streak into the break. 

If looking at their place in the standings, many might assume that the Bucks are already "playing out the string." I don't believe that to be the case at all though. This is a young team with some real talent and when they play up to their potential, they're extremely capable. Remember, they were the first team to beat Golden State this season. Including that victory and the recent win over the Celtics, the Bucks have quietly gone 14-8 here at the Bradley Center. 

One thing that the Bucks have going for them is that they've played more road games than any other team in the league. That means they'll get more home games than anyone else (19 of their final 29) to end the season. If they do want to entertain any thoughts of getting back in the playoffs, the Bucks know that every game is critical and that the Wizards are one of the teams they'll be chasing. The fact that they lost all three of this season's earlier meetings should provide the Bucks with even more motivation. 

Milwaukee tinkered with its lineup before last game and it seemed to pay dividends. The Bucks were actually up big on the Celtics, before letting them back in the game. I like the fact that they were able to close the deal. A loss in that Boston game, after holding the lead, would have been crippling. However, I believe the victory will provide them with some positive momentum. 

The Wizards have been far from consistent. Every win over the past few weeks has been followed by a loss. Note that they're just 1-3 ATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points. They're also 5-8 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. The Bucks, on the other hand, are 8-4 ATS the last 12 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 10* GOW 

I'm playing on Wisconsin Milwaukee. The Golden Grizzlies have been playing very well and they're likely to be a popular pick here. However, I look for them to receive a much tougher test than many will be expecting. 

These teams played a game which came down to the wire at Milwaukee a few weeks ago. Oakland was up by one at halftime and finished with a 3-point win. However, the Panthers have actually fared better on the road, at least from an ATS perspective. They're 7-2-1 ATS in road lined games and they've got nine wins away from home, as compared to six at home. 

It should be noted that the Panthers have been playing a lot of close games recently. In fact, ALL five of their last five games have been decided by four points or less. Eight of their nine overall losses have been by eight or fewer points and seven of those losses have been by four or less. 

The Panthers still view themselves as one of the top teams in the Horizon and they know a win against Oakland would prove that to everyone else. They were the last team to seriously challenge the Golden Grizzlies and I look for them to do so again. 10* Horizon GOY

I'm playing on UNLV. For the second time this season, the Rebels have dropped three straight games. They responded to their earlier 3-game skid with a double-digit victory against New Mexico. Tonight's opponent should provide them with the opportunity to again bounce back with a big win.

The Rebels are dealing with some significant injury problems at the moment. That's caused interim coach Todd Simon to "get creative" with his schemes. The Rebels had success in slowing down Fresno State with a zone-defense, which allowed them to erase a 17-point deficit. They've now had a couple of days to practice the zone and they'll be facing the perfect opponent to use it against. Simon wants this unit to build confidence and he knows a big win would go a long way. 

Note that the Rebels are 17-5 ATS the last 2+ seasons, after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. 

While the Spartans may be improved from year's past, keep in mind that they're still winless in lined road games. They're 5-12 ATS their last 17 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 140s. 

UNLV beat the Spartans by 34 points here last season. Including that result, the Rebels are 10-2 ATS the last 12 times that they were listed as home favorites of greater than a dozen points. I look for the remaining Rebels to rally together and am expecting another blowout. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on PHOENIX. Having beaten the likes of the Spurs and Cavs by 30 or more points, the Warriors are capable of blowing out any opponent. That said, given the situation, I feel they're laying a little too high a number here.

Golden State comes off a win against Houston last night, extending its home winning streak. Prior to taking on Harden, the Warriors had faced Durant, Westbrook and co. on Saturday night. Mixed in between those games, Curry was busy attending the Super Bowl. Next up is the All Star game. Given all that "excitement," I feel it will be easy for the Warriors to overlook the lowly Suns, a team they've already beaten twice this season. 

The Suns haven't won yet but they've been playing hard since the coaching change. Only one of four losses has come by double-digits, none of them by greater than 16. They shot better than 50% from the field last time out (best mark in 17 games) which caused coach Watson to comment: ''I think you see our team, we're growing, we're getting better. We're not discouraged. We won't be discouraged.''

With the exception of a game at Philadelphia (the Warriors nearly lost that one!) this is the largest line that the Warriors have been asked to lay on the road all season. Including the ATS loss at Philly, note that they're 0-4 ATS the last four times that they were laying greater than 15 points on the road. Don't be surprised if this one also proves closer than most will be expecting. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on DETROIT. I successfully played against the Nuggets when they lost at Brooklyn on Monday. This is a more difficult venue and I expect them to be facing a determined Pistons team.

Off back-to-back losses, the Pistons badly want to right the ship, before the break. Added motivation stems from the fact that they lost a close one at Denver a few weeks ago. The Pistons squandered a double-digit lead in that one and were outscored 39-20 in the third quarter. Stan Van Gundy wasn't at all pleased with that effort and he's going to demand more from his team this evening.

Both teams had yesterday off, after playing Monday. However, the Pistons had Sunday off while the Nuggets played at MSG. That makes this their third road game in four days.

While the Nuggets are 9-17 away from Denver, the Pistons are a respectable 16-9 at home, outscoring teams by a 104.7 to 99 margin here. That includes a 4-2 ATS mark as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. 10* PF

I'm playing on KENTUCKY. The Wildcats have won five straight, and nine of 10, when hosting the Bulldogs. The last four of those victories have all come by double-digits. I expect another relatively one-sided affair this evening.

I successfully played aganist Kentucky last week at Kansas. That was a tough loss for the Wildcats and (in hindsight) it wasn't all that surprising that they followed it up with another setback. The Wildcats got back on track in a big way last time out though, destroying Florida by 19 points. I expect them to build some positive momentum from that victory. 

While the Bulldogs are 1-5 on the road, the Wildcats have yet to taste defeat at home. They're outscoring teams by an average of 80.2 to 62.7 here. I don't think Georgia will be able to keep up. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Celtics have been on a roll recently. However, I like how this one sets up for the home team. 

Off four straight wins and with victories in nine of their last 10 games, the Celtics could easily take tonight's game for granted. After all, the Bucks have dropped five straight and seven of eight. Plus, Boston already won big here earlier in the season. Throw in the fact that they've got a big showdown vs. the Clippers on deck tomorrow night and that they just beat a former teammate (Rondo) last time out and I feel that the Celtics may go through the motions a little here. 

On the other hand, the Bucks have had the past three days off and they also get tomorrow night off. They nearly snapped thier skid last time out, losing by only three at Utah. Including that "cover," they're 6-1 ATS after losing three or more consecutive games. 

The Bucks are 2-1 ATS as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, both ATS wins also resulting in SU wins. They're also 3-0 SU/ATS when playing at home with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. They've still won nine of 13 here and I look for their best effort tonight. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. I successfully played against the Nets in their last game. However, I really like how this one sets up for them.

While they did lose their last road game, the Nets played very well in their last home game, a 128-119 win over defensively-challenged Sacramento. Denver is another team which gives up a lot of points and I believe the Nets, who had yesterday off, match up favorably.

That win over the Kings was the Nets best offensive effort of the season. As that was their last game on this floor, it should give them some confidence here.

Admittedly, the Nuggets have played well recently. In fact, they've been a spread-covering machine of late. That said, they're off a big win at NY yesterday and will be playing their third game in four days here. I believe it'll catch up to them.

The Nets have generally been at their best against teams from the West, going a respectable 12-8 ATS. They've beaten the Nuggets three straight times and with the schedule in their favor, I look for them to do it again. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on DUKE. I won with Louisville on Saturday afternoon. The Cardinals were facing a terrible team (Boston College) and I expected them to respond to the "bad news" by coming together and delivering a blowout win. That's exactly what happened. Tonight, however, they'll be on the road facing a top tier opponent, one which is quietly rounding into form.

After losing a couple of games here in January, off back-to-back wins, the Blue Devils have started to put things together.  They're averaging an awesome 90.5 points per game at home. Off an 88-80 win last time out, note that the Blue Devils are 10-3 ATS (11-2 SU) the last 13 times that they allowed 80 or more points in their previous game. They could badly use a victory over a ranked opponent and they should be extremely hungry to take advantage of this evening's opportunity. 

The expected pace figures to favor Duke here. With an O/U line currently in the high 140s, note that the Blue Devils are an outstanding 32-13-1 ATS (44-2 SU) the last 46 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. 

The Cardinals, who are just 1-5 ATS on the road, have obviously had an emotional week. While they were able to channel that energy positively on Saturday, I look for it all to catch up with them here. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on DENVER. Carolina has certainly had an impressive season. The Panthers are up against an outstanding defense here though, one which is peaking at the right time. They're also up against a future Hall-Of-Fame QB, one of the all-time greats, one who will be playing with a chip on his shoulder.

Manning has had a storybook career. However, much of his legacy is likely going to ride on this game. A victory gives him another SB ring and a winning all-time postseason record. A loss, however, gives him a losing playoff record and he becomes a 3-time loser. Needless to say, Manning hasn't forgotten the debacle against Seattle two seasons ago. As someone who appreciates the history of the game, and his place in it, this game is as big as they come for Peyton.
 
I really liked what I saw out of Manning against the Pats. He did what he needed to do, even running for a key first down when needed. I also liked the way the talented receiving corps bounced back after dropping a few in the poor conditions against Pittsburgh the previous week.
 
Like him or not, Newton has looked pretty darn impressive all year. The same can be said for Brady though and the Broncos defense made him look like an ordinary QB in the conference championships. Less than ordinary, in fact. Indeed, Brady's 18.1 QB rating in the first half was the lowest by any NFL playoff QB in the past five years. While he still threw for more than 300 yards, Brady connected on less than half of his passes and had more INT's than TD passes. (That was the only time he's ever been held to less than 50% completions in a playoff game.) The Broncos hit him at least 20 times. The point that I'm trying to make is that if the Broncos can do that to Brady than I believe that they can do the same to Newton. This defense is that good.
 
The Panthers are banged-up, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The last time that they played away from Carolina, they lost. They've become accustomed to having things easy, blowing teams out and posing for the camera. They're going to be in for a dogfight here though against a battle-tested Broncos team which has been involved in close games all season. I look for that close game experience to serve them well here.
 
As a close game won't surprise, I'm happy to grab the points. That said, I'm expecting an outright win from Manning and co. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on TULSA. These teams just met at Houston on 1/27. Including a victory in that one, the Cougars have won three straight. I believe the Golden Hurricane are favored for good reason here though and I expect them to have their revenge. 

Both teams have been mediocre on the road. Both have been tough at home. Having already lost at Houston, Tulsa knows it needs this one. Note that the Golden Hurricane are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they've been listed as the home team in this series. The last four of those victories all came by a minimum of eight points.

To their credit, the Cougars were able to win without their star Rob Gray Jr (ankle) last time out. However, make no mistake, his (potential) loss is a major blow. He leads the AAC in scoring. As of this writing, Gray is considered doubtful. However, even if he were to play, its likely he'd be at less than 100%.

Tulsa, which was defeated by Temple last time out, has been at its best off a loss so far this year. After two previous 2016 losses, the Golden Hurricane bounced back with a double-digit win each time. I believe the Golden Hurricane are the more balanced team and I look for them to also be the hungrier team. Look for them to "bounce back" big once again. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on BAYLOR. I successfully played against West Virginia last Saturday when the Mountaineers got destroyed by the Gators. While I do respect the Mountaineers, I'm going against them again here.

WVU has some strengths but also some weaknesses. Even Bob Huggins noted: "There's a lot of things we don't do well ... "

One of the Mountaineers' strengths is rebounding. That happens to be one of Baylor's strengths as well though. In last week's game against Florida, I noted the following: "The Gators catch a break in that WVU senior forward Jonathan Holton will be suspended for this game. Considering that he'd been averaging a double-double (12.3/10.3) the last three games, his absence figures to be significant." Note that Holton, who's 7.5 rebounds per game, ranks 5th in the conference, isn't expected to play. Once again, I feel that could prove significant. 

Admittedly, the Bears weren't at their best against Texas last game. However, they have been at their best, when coming off a loss. They're 3-0 SU, going 1-0-1 ATS in lined games, when off a loss. 

The Bears were 3-0 SU/ATS against WVU last season, all three wins coming by double-digits. Their starting lineup has played together in every game this season and has 446 combined games of starting experience. That experience has translated to success away from home as this team has won three consecutive Big 12 road games. I look for them to give their hosts all they can handle here with a great shot at an upset. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on RICE. Both these teams really struggle on the road. Playing at home, I look for the Owls to have the advantage.

Southern Miss, which loss by 16 at North Texas last time out, is 2-7 on the road. Note that ALL seven of those losses have come by a minimum of seven points. Six of them were by double-digits and they came by an average of 15 points. In other words, the Golden Eagles are accustomed to getting blown out on the road. 

While the Eagles manage a mere 53.2 ppg on the road, the Owls score 80.7 here at home. Overall, Southern Miss is scoring 65.9 ppg in conference play while Rice is scoring 78.1.

Admittedly, wins have been few and far between for the Owls of late. That said, when this team wins, they tend to win by a fairly comfortable margin. Four of the Owls' last five victories have come by at least eight points.

These teams meet against at Southern Miss on 2/25 and the Golden Eagles will have a much better shot in that one. For this game, playing on their own floor, I look for the Owls to effectively dicate the pace and for the Eagles to have trouble keeping up. 10* CUSA GOY

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While I successfully played against the 76'ers last night, I believe this will prove to be a much better spot for them.

Yesterday, I noted that the 76'ers could easily get caught looking ahead to a "rare winnable game" (this one) tomorrow night. Perhaps they did as they were never really in the game against the Wizards.

The Nets also played last night. Unlike the 76'ers, they gave it everything they had and earned an upset win over the Kings. Given last night's results and the fact that Brooklyn won this season's previous meeting, I believe that the 76'ers may well be the "hungrier" team tonight. 

While both teams are in a b2b spot, the Nets will also be playing their sixth game in the past nine days. By comparison, the 76'ers will be playing just their fourth game in the past 10 days. Big difference.

The 76'ers arent favored often but they tend to fare well when they are. In fact, they're 5-1 SU/ATS the last six times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. I expect them to improve on those stats here. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on Charlotte. The home team has won both meetings so far this season. I expect another victory for the home team here.

Both teams have been rolling recently. The Heat upset the Mavs at Dallas last time out and are now 5-1 their last six. The Hornets upset the Cavs last time out, their fifth win in their last seven. 

The Hornets are a modest 25-22 ATS the past couple of seasons off an upset win. Nothing noteworthy about that. However, that record looks a lot more impressive when compared to Miami's ugly 7-17 ATS mark in the same situation. 

While the Heat won by 10 at Miami, the Hornets returned the favor with an 18-point victory here at Charlotte. In fact, the Hornets have beaten the Heat three straight times here now. They're expecting/hoping to get Walker back tonight and I believe the small line is providing excellent value. 10* Personal Favorite 

I'm playing on Orlando. Don't look now but the Magic have quietly started to play better. The Magic have covered three straight. They lost by only three at OKC last time out. You may recall that I played on them in their most recent home, an outright win over Boston. Those results should give the Magic some confidence here, as will the fact that they lost by only two when these teams played at LA earlier. 

The Clippers, who are playing without Griffin, lost against Minnesota last time out. They've won both their last two road games. However, both of those victories came by only two points. In fact, only one of their last five road games has resulted in a win by greater than two points. 

You might be surprised to learn that the Magic actually have a winning record (10-8) against teams from the West. That's translated to an impressive and profitable 13-4-1 ATS mark at the betting window. I believe they're catching the Clippers at the right time and I expect at least another cover tonight. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on the Wizards. These teams both just lost against the Warriors. While the Wizards lost by double-digits, the 76'ers lost by only three. That may have some scratching their heads as to why the Wizards are laying nearly double-digits here. However, I believe there's good reason why they're such large favorites. 

While they occasionally show some flashes, the 76'ers still have the worst record (7-42) in the league, by far. They followed up their closs loss vs. the Warriors by getting destroyed by 38 points in their next game. This team still has issues. 

Recent struggles notwithstanding, the Wizards are still a very capable team. They're also desperate for wins to get themselves into the playoffs. They can't let opportunities like this one get away from them.

Fast-paced games tend to get away from the 76'ers and this one's expected to be high-scoring. Philly is just 32-56 ATS, excluding pushes, its last 78 when the O/U line was 210 or greater. 

If/When the 76'ers get down here, they could easily get caught looking ahead to tomorrow night's game, as they have a rare winnable home game against Brooklyn. Washington, on the other hand, can't afford to let up in this one, no matter what happens. 

The Wizards have dominated the 76'ers. They won the last meeting by 29 points and they won the last two here at Washington by 13 and 35 points. I'm expecting another rout. 10* B.M.  

I'm playing on VANDERBILT. The Aggies come in with the higher ranking. However, I expect the Commodores to be the team that comes away with the victory.

Admittedly, the Commodores have had real trouble against top tier opponents. That's what makes tonight's game that much more important. Remember, this is a Vanderbilt team which began the season with a top 20 national ranking. The Commodores want what the Aggies have. 

The Aggies are tough and are having a great season. All three of their losses have come away from home though and I believe they're coming into a hostile environment which hasn't been kind to them. 

The home team has won the last two meetings in the series with the Commodores taking three of the last four in the series overall. The Aggies have yet to win here as a member of the SEC. Vanderbilt is 

Vandy is 4-0 ATS the last four times that it failed to cover in its previous three games, most recently blowing out Auburn by a 75-57 score. I expect the Commodores' best effort again here. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on Southern Illinois. The Shockers are a very strong team. They've dominated the conference for years, they've been a pointspread covering machine since before Christmas and their coach is on the verge of winning more games than any coach in school history. Everyone else knows all that too though and I believe thats led to a bit of an inflated line here. I also believe that the Salukis are going to show up ready to play.

While the Shockers get the majority of the attention in the MVC, up until their last game, the Salukis had quietly been playing very well themselves. From 12/12 through 1/24, they went 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS. The lone setback was a blowout home loss against these same Shockers. The Salukis were embarrassed in that one and they should be determined to give a better effort here.

After the blowout loss against the Shockers, SIU coach Hinson had this to say: I'm really disappointed. I can't come in here and talk about one player -- not one player played well today. In order for us to beat a team like Wichita State we have to have lots of players play well." He continued: "We got punched and we didn't get back up off the mat. That's the first time that's happened this year."

Note that was the Salukis' worst defeat since they lost by 83-47 against Illinois State in Feb of 2013. Guess what happened in their next game? Listed as double-digit underdogs, the Salukis beat Wichita State outright! (That 64-62 win was the last time that the Salukis have beaten W.S.)

Admittedly, the Salukis didn't play too well last time out, losing by 11 at Northern Iowa. That was on the heels of a disappointing OT loss against Evansville though, so a letdown wasn't that surprising. I expect that effort to provide a wake-up call.

As Hinson noted: "If this is not a wakeup call for us, then we're going to have issues."

The Salukis have the best road record in the conference. I look for them to give the Shockers a tougher game than most will be expecting. 10* best bet

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Its always a bit nerve-wracking going against the Warriors. They're a great team, one which is capable of making other teams look bad, regardless of venue. That said, I feel we're getting strong value with the home underdog here.

While they'll be without their coach, I expect the Wizards to come ready to play. They badly need wins and they don't want to get embarrassed here. They lost by seven at home against the Warriors last season. 

The Warriors aren't invincible. They very nearly lost at Philadelphia a couple of games ago. They've done a great job of maintaining focus but it still may be easy for them to overlook Washington here. Note that the Warriors, who have OKC up next, have been far more dominant against the West. They're actually only 8-11-1 ATS against the East. 

We have to go back a long way, as the Wizards haven't been this big a home underdog in years, but Washington is 11-4 ATS its last 15 as a home underdog in the 9.5 to 12 range. Look for this one to be closer than expected. 10* best bet

I'm playing on RICHMOND. At first glance, this line may seem a little high. However, I believe there's a big talent difference between these teams and I look for it be evident this evening.

True, the Patriots have a star in Shevon Thompson. At 6-11, 240+, Thompson is indeed a load. The backcourt is weak though and that's a big reason for the 7-14 record. The Patriots, who are 1-7 their last eight overall, have won only one true road game all season. Five of their last seven losses have come by a minimum of 11 points. 

While the Patriots manage a mere 64.4 points per game on the road, the Spiders score 81.5 here at home. Richmond, which has wins over teams from the ACC, Pac-12 and MVC, tends to win fairly big when it wins. Six of the Spiders' last seven victories have come by greater than 10 points, five of those by 15 or more. 

The big wins have primarily been a result of strong shooting. The Spiders hit 49.2% (51.1% at home!) of their shots, which is the best mark in the conference and 12th best in the country. Pretty impressive when considering that they've played a few very good defensive teams. They've had at least six straight games where at least four players have recorded double-digits in scoring. I don't feel Thompson and co. will be able to contend with that type of scoring and depth. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MICHIGAN. The Hoosiers come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe the Wolverines, who have won four straight, are favored for good reason. 

Homecourt has been important in this series and its been important to both teams this season. The Wolverines are 6-4 on the road but an impressive 11-1 at home. The Hoosiers are a perfect 13-0 at home but just 5-4 on the road. 

Last year, the Hoosiers beat the Wolverines by three at Indiana. However, the previous season, the Wolverines won by four in Ann Arbor. 

The Hoosiers are 0-2-1 ATS (0-3 SU) the last three times they were road underdogs of three or fewer points. During the same period, the Wolverines were 5-2 SU/ATS as home favorites of three or less. Look for the Wolverines to protect their homecourt, covering the small number along the way. 10* GOW

I'm playing on BAYLOR. The home team won both meetings in this series last season, the Bears covering in both. The Longhorns eked out a 2-point win (as 3.5 pt favs) at Texas. However, the Bears destroyed them by a 83-60 margin in the game here at Baylor. This one may not be that lopsided but I expect the end result to be the same.

As it was in last year's meetings, home court has been important to both these teams this season. Texas is 11-1 at home but only 3-6 on the road. Meanwhile, Baylor is 3-3 in road games but 13-1 at home. While the Longhorns get outscored on the road, the Bears are beating teams by an average score of 81.7 to 63.6 at home. 

To their credit, the Longhorns have been playing well. They've won five of six (4 of those wins came at home) and they've covered four straight. That said, lets remember that this Texas team is still missing center Cameron Ridley. I expect his absence to have an effect here. Keep in mind that the Longhorns have the worst rebounding margin (-0.3) in the Big-12. That plays into Baylor's strength as the Bears have the best rebounding margin (+9.9) in the conference. With the Bears able to dictate tempo on their home floor, I expect that significant frontcourt advantage to be the difference tonight. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on ATLANTA. While both teams played yesterday, I like how this one sets up for the home team.

The Mavericks had their hands full with a depleted Phoenix team almost the entire game yesterday, eventually pulling away in the fourth. On the other hand, the Hawks lost badly yesterday and that should give them some added hunger/motivation here. They've got a favorable stretch of games coming up and they know they need to take advantage. Starting tonight.

Yes, both teams played yesterday. However, the Hawks had the previous two days off, last playing on 1/28. That's not the case for the Mavs. Prior to yesterday, their most recent game came on 1/29. That puts them in a three games in four nights spot here. It'll also be their fifth game in the past seven.

While the Hawks may seem a little down at the moment, keep in mind that they've still won seven of their last nine on this floor. ALL seven of those victories came by a minimum of seven points, five of them coming by double-digits. (Won by 17, 28, 15, 19, 7, 9 and 21 points) In fact, they won those games by an average of 16.6 points. Laying -8.5, they beat Dallas by 17 points here last season. Another double-digit win won't surprise. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Cavaliers are playing well right now, seemingly happy with their new coaching situation. They dropped their first game under Lue but have since won four straight. On that 4-game winning streak and off a double-digit win over the Spurs, many are likely to be jumping on the bandwagon tonight. However, I expect Lebron and co to have their hands full, as the Pacers are always at their best when Cleveland comes to town.

While everyone knows the Cavs are winning, the Pacers are quietly coming around. Myles Turner has proven to be a major addition while Monta Ellis has found his old form. Indeed, over the past two games, Ellis is averaging 28.5 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 steals. His return as a viable scoring threat should help ease some of the burden on team star, Paul George.

With the Cavs laying this many points, one might assume that their road record is much better than Indiana's home record. That's not the case though. The Pacers are 15-7 at home. The Cavs are 15-9 on the road. The Cavs outscore teams by an average of 4.6 points away from Cleveland. However, the Pacers outscore teams by an average of 6.1 points here at home.

Note that the Cavs, 7-11 ATS off three or more consecutive SU wins, are just 7-14-1 ATS the last 22 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range.

The Pacers gave the Cavs everything they could handle when the teams met at Cleveland earlier in the season. The Cavs escaped with a 4-point win. Games at Indiana have been a different story though. In fact, the Pacers have beaten the Cavs 10 straight times here. Seven of the 10 Indiana victories came by double-digits, all came by at least four. I'm grabbing the points. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. This is essentially a "must-win" game for the Panthers. This is team that I feel they can handle and I expect them to respond with their best effort.

The Panthers, who lost at Clemson last time out, have now dropped three of five. Their next three opponents, two of which they'll face on the road, are all very good. Virginia, Miami and UNC are a combined 50-9. That means that a loss here would be catastrophic.

Knowing the importance of this game, I expect the Panthers to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way and for them to be all business right out of the gate. Jamie Dixon noted: "We've got to come out and get defensive stops early ... "

To their credit, the Panthers have been at their best off a loss this season. In fact, they're a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in that situation. Off an early season loss against Purdue, they responded by blowing out Duquesne. Laying -9, they won by 21. More recently, off a loss at Louisville, they hammered Boston College in their next game. Laying -19, the Panthers won by 23. Off a loss against NC State, they answered with an outright win (as a small underdog) at Florida State.

The Panthers haven't forgotten that they lost in OT at VT last season. The Hokies bench outscored the Panthers' bench by a 55-10 margin here. That won't be happening again here. This is a young VT team, one which lost both its leading scorer and rebounder from last year. Both transferred. Adam Smith hit a 3-pointer to force OT and then hit another with 3.6 secs left in OT, for the win. The Hokies don't have him any more though.

Virginia Tech has played well three games in a row but they came up short each time. Those type of hard-fought losses can catch up with a young team like the Hokies. Facing a determined Pittsburgh team, I expect it to here. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on ORLANDO. These teams just met at Boston a couple of days ago. The Celtics pulled away for a big win. Back home, I expect the revenge-minded Magic to return the favor.

Off five straight wins, the Celtics are admittedly playing well. They've got a "revenge game" against a divisional opponent (NY) on deck though and I feel it may be easy to look past lowly Orlando, particularly after they just handled the Magic a couple of days ago. Note that even with Friday's cover, the Celtics are still just 2-4 ATS after three or more consecutive wins. 

While the Celtics could get caught patting themselves on the back a little, the Magic figure to be desperate. Victor Oladipo noted: "We've got to figure something out. We've got to do it fast ... we've just got to do it. There's nothing more we can say."

The Magic, who just wrapped up a 3-game road trip, are 15-9 ATS the last couple of seasons, after playing their previous three on the road. During that time, they're 17-10-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. 

The Magic have also fared well as a host in this series. A 110-91 win earlier this season brought them to 4-1 SU/ATS their last five home meetings with the Celtics. While I'll gladly take the points, I'm expecting an upset. 10*

I'm playing on GEORGETOWN. The Friars come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Hoyas are favored for good reason. 

The Friars actually have a better road record than they do at home. In fact, they're one of only four teams in the country that's undefeated on the road. (They did lose a neutral site game.) That doesn't mean that will continue though. I expect them to finally taste defeat on the road here.

While they've previously been good at bouncing back from losses, the Friars' loss in their last game figures to be a bit deflating. That's because they fought all the way back from a 17-point deficit, pulling within three, only to still come up short. 

Conversely, the Hoyas were able to erase an 11-point deficit in the final 2:32 of their last game. Unlike Providence, they found a way to win. John Thompson III noted: "I like the way our guys kept fighting. There was a lot of adversity coming from a lot of different angles throughout the game and I liked the way we kept fighting and kept plugging. In the locker room, every single person made a play, a winning play, to help us win this game."

That type of comeback and performance ("every single person making a play") can build momentum for college teams and I expect it to have that effect on the Hoyas today. 10* GOM

I'm playing on KANSAS. I was looking what people were saying in a few previews for this game and the general feeling seemed to be that Kentucky would come away with the win. While its true that the Wildcats are the hotter team at the moment, I believe that the Jayhawks are favored for good reason. 

The Jayhawks have had this game circled. The Wildcats embarrassed them 72-40 at the Champions Classic last season. The previous meeting saw Kentucky beat them in the national title game. 

Last year's game was at Indianapolis but today's rematch will be at Phog Allen Fieldhouse, an extremely hostile environment. In the past nine seasons, only three teams have won here. Under Self, the Jayhawks are 200-9 here. 

Calipari had this to say of the venue: "Going to Allen Fieldhouse, these guys will experience something they will never experience in their life in that building. There is no pro arena like that. There's no other arena we’re going to walk into that's going to be that bad."

The Jayhawks, who allowed 85 points on Monday, are 46-24 ATS (excluding pushes) their last 70 lined games after giving up 80 or more points in their previous game. Payback time at the Phog. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Nuggets have played well recently and they're coming off an upset win at Washington last time out. However, I expect them to find things considerably more difficult this evening.

The Pacers got back on track last time out. Their 19-point rout of Atlanta provides some positive momentum. Having lost their previous three, the Pacers know they can't afford any letdown here though, particularly with the Cavs on deck. Note that there shouldn't be any looking ahead to that game. Not only is it on Monday (as opposed to tomorrow) but the Nuggets just beat the Pacers, at Denver, less than two weeks ago. So, the Nuggets should have the Pacers' undivided attention.

The Nuggets, who are playing the final leg of a road trip, are just 4-9-1 ATS off an upset win. They're not going to like what they find here. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on FLORIDA. Admittedly, the Gators have had trouble against ranked teams. Beating West Virginia won't be easy, either. The Mountaineers have been one of the best defensive teams in the country this year. That said, I believe the Gators will find a way.
 
True, the Mountaineers won by double-digits last time out. However, a closer look shows that they committed 18 turnovers, missed 13 free throws and hit less than 43% of their shots.
 
The Gators have been very tough to beat on this floor. They're undefeated here in 2016 and have only one loss here all season. In their last home game, the Gators won by 32 points.
 
The Gators catch a break in that WVU senior forward Jonathan Holton will be suspended for this game. Considering that he'd been averaging a double-double (12.3/10.3) the last three games, his absence figures to be significant. Look for the Gators to take advantage. 9* Breakfast Club

I'm playing on UCLA. The Bruins have really struggled on the road and they lost a close one (3-point loss in double-OT) when these teams played at Washington. They've been much better at home though and I expect them to exact some revenge for the New Year's Day defeat.

While they lost to USC in their last game here, the Bruins beat a talented Arizona team their previous game here. They beat Kentucky by double-digits on this floor back in December and the Wildcats were #1 at the time. In other words, when they bring their best, they can beat any team here. The manner in which they lost the 1/1 game, combined with the fact that the Bruins are looking up at the Huskies in the conference standinds, should ensure we get their best effort tonight. 

The Huskies have benefitted from the fact that two of their first three conference road games have come against Washington State and Arizona State. Their only Pac-12 road game against a strong team (Arizona) resulted in a 32-point loss. 

The Bruins have dominated the Huskies here in recent seasons, beating them by 22 here last year. They're 4-1 SU/ATS their last five in the "revenge" role, going 12-4 ATS (13-3 SU) their last 16 in that role. Payback time. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers have struggled at the betting window of late but this should be a good spot for them to get back on track.
Both teams just faced the Clippers. However, while the Pacers played LA on Tuesday, the Hawks had to face them yesterday. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Hawks will now be playing their third game in the past four days, their sixth game in the past nine days and their ninth game since 1/15. That's a pretty tough stretch, when considering it included a trip out west. By comparison, the Pacers will be playing just their seventh game since 1/15.
 
Yes, the Pacers have lost three in a row. However, they haven't lost four in a row all season. Each of the previous four times that they lost three straight, they responded by snapping the streak in the fourth game. Three of the four victories came by double-digits. The only game played here at Indiana, after losing three straight, resulted in a double-digit win. I believe the signs point to another big bounceback.
 
Even though they came up short, the Pacers got a monster game from Paul George last time out. That's an encouraging sign as they need George to play like the star that he is. The emergence of Myles Turner has also been a bonus. Additionally, the defense played much better last time out.
 
Indiana coach Vogel noted: "We know we're close, we know we've done some good things. We're not getting blown out every night," Vogel said. "We haven't won nearly enough for our liking but we feel like we're doing the right things to start put us in position to start winning games again."
 
Note that the Hawks are only 8-12 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. During the same span, the Pacers were 8-4-1 ATS as home favorites of three or less. It should also be noted that the Pacers have been very competitive against winning teams; they're 15-5 ATS their last 20 against teams with a winning record.
 
While they've had real trouble at Atlanta over the years, the Pacers handled the Hawks here last month. With the schedule in their favor, I look for more of the same this evening. 10* GOW