Sports Picks & Predictions

I am playing on HOUSTON (vs Charlotte) as a *10 Blue Marlin on Monday @ 8:05 PM ET - Very small number on the home favorite Rockets and I am going to step in and take full advantage. Houston has won five straight games on their home floor and not enough weight has been given to their home court edge in looking at this match-up. The Hornets have lost 7 of their 11 road games this season. Also, this is not an easy spot for them. Charlotte has allowed 50% or better shooting from the field in their two most recent road games. The Hornets won't be able to slow down a high-powered Rockets offense that has been firing on all cylinders recently. Charlotte has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games while Houston has covered 7 of their last 10 games. This is a classic case of Hot versus Not and I''ll grab the Hot!

I am playing on PHILADELPHIA (vs Arizona) as my *10 NFL *Game of the Week* on Sunday @ 8:30 PM ET - Even though the Cardinals continued their winning streak last week it was the 3rd time in their last 4 games that Arizona failed to get the cover. The Cards allowed nearly 400 yards of offense in last week's tight win and it was the 3rd time in their last 4 games that Arizona allowed passing yards of 278 or more. The Cardinals are 4-6 ATS and on a long-term 26-38 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Arizona is taking on an Eagles team surging with confidence after back to back wins over the Patriots and Bills. The return of QB Sam Bradford from injury as well as notching these two key victories, has led to a resurgent feeling in the Eagles in the locker-room. Philadelphia is tied for first place in the division and the Eagles know they control their own destiny as to whether they make the post-season or not. Motivation and emotion are key factors in the NFL and the Eagles certainly have those areas working in their favor for this one. Philadelphia has won 10 of the last 14 home match-ups versus Arizona. The Eagles have rushed for over 115 yards in 3 of their last 4 games. The Cardinals have been held under 98 rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games. The ground game could be a key in this tough grudge match battle and that favors the Eagles in the trenches. Philadelphia has games with the Giants and Redskins to wrap up their season but there is no way they'll overlook the 11-2 Cardinals. Arizona finishes their season with the 9-4 Packers and a big rivalry game with the 8-5 Seahawks. The Cards could get caught underestimating this scrappy, resurgent Eagles team on Sunday night. 

I am playing on TORONTO (vs Sacramento) as my *10 NBA Personal Favorite on Sunday @ 6:05 PM ET - This is a very manageable number for Toronto. On Sunday, the Raptors are hosting a Kings team that is only 2-9 on the road this season. That said, laying about 5 points with a Toronto team that is 8-4 in home games this season is truly a good value. The Raptors play this game with revenge from a road loss at Sacramento last month. Toronto is 10-2 ATS this season when playing with revenge. The Raptors are off of a 108-94 win at Miami and Toronto has gone 6-1 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 105 points or more. The Kings enter this game off of a road loss at Minnesota and that brings Sacramento's current run in road games to 1-3 ATS and 0-4 straight-up. The Kings were favored against the Timberwolves and Sacramento has gone 8-14 ATS when they are off of a straight-up loss as a favorite. The Kings also are on a 7-16 ATS run against Atlantic Division opponents and a 13-23 ATS run in December games. Look for the Raptors to roll at home in a game that is set up well to be ALL Toronto!

I am playing on WRIGHT STATE (vs Bowling Green) as a *10 CBB Main Event on Sunday @ 4:30 PM ET - Wright State's overall record may not look impressive but they are a tough out on their home floor. The Raiders have won 3 of their 4 home game this season and their average margin of victory in the 3 wins was 3 points. Wright State is hosting a Bowling Green team Sunday that is off of a road loss where they allowed 95 points last Saturday. Home court makes a huge difference in College Basketball and I see a big edge with Wright State laying a small number in this one. The Raiders have won 21 of their 33 home games the past three seasons. The Falcons could be impacted by the long layoff here and they are 6-10 ATS when they enter a game off of 7 or more days of rest. Bowling Green also is on a 7-12 ATS run in road games with a total set in a range of 135 to 139.5 points. Just like it what happened at Detroit last weekend, the Falcons defense does them in again this weekend as Wright State rolls at home. 

I am playing on ATLANTA (@ Jacksonville) as my *10 NFL Game of the Month on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The Falcons are facing a Jaguars team that is off of a pair of unusually high-scoring games and the fact that the Jags scored an average of 45 points per game in the past two games has helped to inflate this number. Jacksonville scored 51 points last week but that was on only 380 yards of offense. The Jaguars are facing a Falcons defense that allowed just 19 points per game in their six games prior to their rare, poor performance last week. Look for Atlanta's defense to have its ears pinned back and be ready to go hard Sunday after the embarrassment of the 38-0 loss last week. The Jaguars are still alive in the weak AFC South division in terms of the playoff picture. That means the pressure is on Jacksonville here while the Falcons are basically just playing for next season. That means a relaxed Atlanta team will be taking the field here. Jacksonville will try to play conservative here and just not make mistakes against a team they know they should beat because Atlanta has lost 6 in a row. The problem with this is teams often get themselves in trouble when trying to play too conservatively and basically play "not to lose". Look for that to be the situation with the Jaguars this week. As for Atlanta, the Falcons will look to pound the ball on the ground after too many turnovers have led to trouble for them in recent weeks. The result is an aggressive, physical Atlanta team on both sides of the ball leading to a big effort for the Falcons here and a great shot at the outright upset win. Jacksonville is on a 1-9 SU and 1-9 ATS run in their last 10 games against non-conference opponents. The Jags struggle again against an NFC foe.

I am playing on GONZAGA (vs Tennessee) as my *10 Main Event Saturday @ 11 PM ET - Tennessee has played solid defense this season. The Bulldogs have played even better! The Volunteers have shot the ball well this season, Gonzaga has shot the ball even better. You can see where I am going with this. As respectable as the Vols play has been early this season Tennessee is still not on par with the level that this Gonzaga team is at. Additionally, the Bulldogs have the home court edge here. While it is considered a neutral site game there is no denying the venue being the KeyArena in Seattle, WA certainly favors the Zags. The Volunteers have a long-term mark of 38-57 ATS in neutral court games the last three seasons. As you would expect, Tennessee struggles against elite defensive teams. The Vols are 7-17 ATS the past three seasons when they a face a team that is allowing an average of 64 points per game or less. Gonzaga is 15-8 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. The Volunteers have won all five games on their home floor this season but they've lost all four games away from home! The Bulldogs are allowing just 61 points per game this season and the Vols are allowing 75 points per game. The better defense and the 'home court edge' on this 'neutral court' will lead to a huge home win for Gonzaga.

I am playing on DALLAS (vs New York Jets) as my *10 Main Event on Saturday @ 8:25 ET - The Cowboys had a tough effort at Green Bay last week as they managed just 7 points and 11 first downs. Look for a big bounce back effort here from Dallas as they are still alive in the very weak NFC East division. Last week was the 2nd time in 4 weeks that the Cowboys ran for more than 165 yards. Getting the ground game going against the Jets will open things up for the aerial attack and the pass defense is the one mediocre area of the Jets defense. Look for the Cowboys to put up a lot more points than many are expecting here. On other side of the ball, the Jets will certainly put up some points but they are not going to be able to keep up with the Cowboys in this one. Dallas ranks among the top teams in the league at defending the pass. The Jets, on the other hand, allowed 268 passing yards to the Titans last week and the Jets were fortunate that ended up equating to only 8 points. The Jets have allowed 284 passing yards per game the past eight weeks! Also, prior to allowing just 8 points to Tennessee, the Jets had given up an average of 24 points per game the past eight games. New York did not allow less than 20 points in any of those games. The Cowboys, at home and still mathematically alive in the playoff race, certainly will bring an intense effort here!

I am playing on HOUSTON (vs LA Clippers) as my *10 Best Bet Saturday @ 8:05 PM ET - Though this is a revenge spot for the Clippers it is also a poor scheduling spot for them and that gives the Rockets a huge edge here. The Clips were battling hard in San Antonio last night while Houston had an off day on the calendar. This is not only a back to back spot for the Clippers but also it is the 7th game for LA in the past 11 days. The Rockets come in rested and ready to defeat the Clippers for a 5th straight time. After falling behind 3 games to 1 in their series against the Clips in the post-season, the Rockets rallied to win three straight games to take the series. Houston then followed that up with a 4th straight win over the Clippers when the Rockets beat them in LA in their first match-up of the season. Now the 2nd match-up also favors Houston based on the scheduling dynamics here. The Rockets are 5-2 SU and ATS in games against the Pacific Division this season. The Clippers allowed 115 points to the Spurs last night and the Clips have gone 2-5 ATS this season after a game in which they gave up 105 points or more. 

I am playing on UTAH (vs BYU) as my *10 Opening Day Personal Favorite on Saturday, December 19th @ 3:30 PM ET - The fact that Utah RB Devontae Booker is out is keeping this line lower than it should be. The Utes will still be able to get solid running considering the depth they have at that position. On the other side of the ball is the key as Utah's solid defense will lead the way. Though both teams in this match-up have a solid defense, the Utes hold the edge with their run defense. Utah also has a big edge at special teams where they have been particular strong in both ends of the punting game as well as the field goal unit. Strong legs for Utah's kicking game and the Utes have perhaps the top overall special teams units in the nation. Another key here is that BYU's strength of schedule is nowhere close to the strong schedule that Utah faced this season. This factor, along with BYU's 8-5 ATS record compared to Utah's 5-7 ATS record this season, is helping to provide exceptional line value on a Utes team that is laying just a couple points in this match-up. Of course there has been extra time off leading into this bowl match-up and Brigham Young is 0-7 ATS after a bye week. Utah is on a 9-1 ATS run in non-conference games. The Utes are 30-13 ATS when playing with two or more weeks of rest. 

I am playing on PHOENIX (vs New Orleans) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Friday @ 10:35 PM ET - The Suns have hit a tough stretch and are a tough 11-16 on the season but New Orleans is 1-7 ATS this season against teams with a losing record. The Pelicans have a 7-18 record on the season and there is great line value here with Phoenix as a small home favorite. The Suns have a 7-6 straight-up record in home games this season while the Pelicans had lost 12 of their 13 road games before a surprising road win at Utah on Wednesday night. With New Orleans off of an upset win on the road and Phoenix off of an ugly road loss at powerful Golden State, the set up is perfect for a big Suns home win here. Phoenix is 4-2 ATS this season - and 20-10 ATS the last 3 seasons - when they are off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more in their prior game. When the Suns allowed 105 points or more in a game, they've responded by going 45-32 ATS in their next game. Look for Phoenix to get back on track tonight as they take advantage of New Orleans off of a rare road win. The Pelicans, with only two road wins all season, are certainly unlikely to put together two straight victories away from home. 

I am playing on OREGON (vs Long Beach State) as my *10 CBB Blue Marlin on Friday @ 9 PM ET - The 49'ers lost all five starters from last season's team. Long Beach State has battled hard to try and quickly recover without all those pieces. The 49'ers have been helped by some solid Junior College transfers. But it takes time for a team to gel after so much roster turnover. Long Beach State is off of a win but it was against a weak foe and, prior to that, the 49'ers had lost 6 of their 8 prior games. Look for Long Beach State's losing ways to quickly return as they now step up big in class again to face a tough Oregon team. The Ducks are 8-2 on the season and off a blowout win over Cal Irvine. 5 of the Ducks 8 wins this season have come by a margin of at least 15 points. Oregon is on a 10-3 ATS run as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. The 49'ers are allowing 80 points per game in road games this season while the Ducks are allowing just 64 points per game in home games this season. Look for that to be a key tonight as the Oregon offense simply proves to be too much for a Long Beach State team that struggles to get defensive stops. 

I am playing on ATLANTA (@ Boston) as my NBA *10* Game of the Month on Friday @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks will be surging with confidence when they hit the floor in Boston tonight as they scored 127 points on 61.5% shooting from the floor in their win versus Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Hawks are catching the Celtics at a good time as they are off of back to back losses including a deflating 119-116 loss at Detroit on Wednesday. Boston has lost three of their last four games and has shot poorly from the field in four of their last five games. In a home game with the total set in a range of 200 to 204.5 points the Celtics have gone 2-5 ATS this season and 13-20 ATS the past three seasons cumulative. The Hawks blasted by 24 points in the last meeting between these clubs last month. Atlanta has outshot the Celtics from the field by a substantial margin in each of the last four meetings between these teams. With the Hawks also coming off of the hot shooting night Wednesday, Boston's defense is truly in trouble here. Atlanta has taken full advantage when facing weaker defenses this season as Atlanta has gone 9-4 ATS this season in games against teams allowing 99+ points per game on average. The Hawks are 18-8 ATS in road games with a total set in a range of 200 to 204.5 points this season. Atlanta also has a 26-11 straight up record in December games the past three seasons. Look for another big December win tonight on Friday for Atlanta and grab the points with the Hawks. 

I am playing on HOUSTON (@ LA Lakers) as my *10 TNT *Main Event* on Thursday @ 10:35 PM ET - After back to back losses in a tough back to back situation at Denver and then Sacramento, the Rockets have now had a day off and are rested and will take advantage of facing a Lakers team that just won for only the 4th time in 25 games this season. That sets this situation up perfectly for the Rockets to come in and dominate. The Lakers had lost their two prior games by a combined 51 points before notching their rare win over Milwaukee on Tuesday. Of course the Lakers were helped by a situational edge there as the Bucks were off of their massive upset win over Golden State that ended the Warriors unbeaten season. The Lakers took advantage of the situation and got the win over a 'flat' Bucks team. Thursday the Lakers certainly will not be facing a flat team as the Rockets are ready to end their 2 game losing streak. Houston had won 7 of 9 before these two losses and they'll pulverize a Lakers team that has not won two straight games all season. Lakers are 1-4 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 105 points or more. LA is 5-12 ATS the last three seasons when they are off of a win by a margin of ten points or more. The Rockets entered this season with a 19-9 ATS mark when they are off of a loss by ten points or more. With a powerful Rockets team off of a big loss and a weak Lakers team off of a big win, the set up for a huge Houston win is perfect here.

I am playing on WEST VIRGINIA (vs Marshall) as my *10 ESPNU *Main Event* on Thursday @ 7 PM ET - Two teams at opposite end of the spectrum early this season and I see no reason for that to change in Thursday night's match-up. Marshall enters with a 2-6 ATS mark on the season while West Virginia is a sparkling 5-1 ATS so far this season. The Mountaineers are allowing an average of only 59 points per game on the season. The Thundering Herd are allowing an average of 83 points per game. The big difference in the way these two teams play defense is also going to be the big difference maker in how this game plays out as it should turn into an absolute rout. The Thundering Herd have won 3 straight games but those victories have come against weak competition. Marshall started the season with 6 straight losses and they got pounded by the tougher competition they faced. This is, without a doubt, the toughest match-up that the Thundering Herd will have had so far this season and that is why I look for them to have their worst loss of the season and that means a loss by 25 or more in this one. West Virginia will not show mercy to an in-state foe and the Mountaineers are off of a blowout win by 42 points in their most recent game. West Virginia already has five wins by margins of at least 33 points so far this season. Another blowout is on tap for Thursday night.

I am playing on PHOENIX (@ Golden State) as my *10 ESPN *MAIN EVENT* on Wednesday @ 10:35 PM ET - This is the first game for Golden State since their unbeaten start to the season finally came to a close in their loss at Milwaukee on Saturday. Though many may predict a Golden State "bounce back" here, I believe the opposite will be true. Many Warriors admitted to being glad that the pressure of the unbeaten run is finally no longer an issue. In my opinion, Golden State will no longer have that same incentive on the floor that they did during the ridiculously long winning streak they had to start the season. Are they likely to win this game tonight? Yes. But will it be a huge blowout win covering this inflated number? I doubt it when you consider the circumstances. The Warriors are happy to finally be back home after a long trip back east and they just want to 'grind out' a win tonight. The Suns are off of a loss at Dallas but previously had won three of their last four games. In all their games dating all the way back to Thanksgiving, the Suns have only lost one game by more than 10 points and that was to Golden State. Looks like a little revenge is on order for Phoenix tonight. The Suns are 20-9 ATS when off of a loss by 10 points or more. Also, Phoenix is 4-1 ATS as a road dog of 12.5 points or more. The Warriors are likely to win tonight but the final score should be much closer than what this spread would lead you to believe.

I am playing on DETROIT (vs Boston) as my *10 NBA *Blue Marlin* on Wednesday @ 7:35 ET - Tough back to back spot for the Celtics who put up only 77 points last night at home against the Cavaliers. Now Boston has to try and keep pace with a Pistons team that has shot the ball well in many of their recent home games.. Overall, Detroit has scored at least 102 points in 7 of their last 9 games. The Pistons will be looking to bounce back after losing a tight one to the Clippers on Monday. Also, Detroit plays this game with home loss revenge as the Celtics got the better of them in their most recent meeting. Boston's straight-up record is 13-29 when they are off of a loss by 10 points or more in their prior game. Overall, on the road, the Celtics have lost 61 of their last 96 games. With the short line on this game on the Pistons and a sparkling 9-3 ATS mark at home this season, Detroit is the play here. The Pistons are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as a home favorite of 3 points or less. This is Detroit's last home game until after Christmas so all their energy and focus will be going into bouncing back from the loss to the Clips with a big home win tonight. 

I am playing on LOUISVILLE (vs Kennesaw State) as my *10 CBB *Blue Marlin* on Wednesday @ 7 PM ET - Of course you can tell by the line on this game but this match-up truly has colossal blowout written all over it. The 7-1 Cardinals take on an over-matched Kennesaw State team. The Cards have already proven that they are not opposed to absolutely imposing their will against smaller, inferior teams. Louisville's 7 wins have come by an average margin of victory of 36 points this season. Kennesaw State has played 3 games this season where they were a double digit dog and they have have been crushed by at least 22 points in each of those games. The bad news for Kennesaw State is that is likely the toughest match-up they have faced yet this season and their long-term record is 2-5 ATS as a road dog of 12.5 points or more. Louisville is on a long-term run of 49-35 ATS in their games against teams with a losing record. The Cardinals also are 4-1 ATS in home games with a total set in the 135 to 139.5 range. Blowout Wednesday!

I am playing on SACRAMENTO (vs Houston) as my *10 NBA *Main Event* on Tuesday @ 10:05 PM ET - The Kings will take advantage of the Rockets being in a very tough scheduling spot on Tuesday. Houston had to battle it out with the Nuggets in Denver last night and will be playing the second night of a back to back here plus it will be the Rockets third game in four nights. Houston has won five straight games against the Kings so, without a doubt, Sacramento is fully focused on the task at hand here. The Kings want revenge and it's the ideal situation to get it. Not only will the Rockets be worn down for this game, Sacramento is well rested as they have not played since Thursday. That was the Kings second straight win and they have won 3 of their last 4 home games. The Rockets come in having played well on offense in recent weeks but their defense has left a lot to be desired. Sacramento has been picking up the intensity on the defensive end with holding their last three opponents to a shooting percentage of 41.3% or less. Look for another strong defensive effort with fresh legs to wear down this road-weary Rockets team Tuesday night as the Kings get their revenge.

I am playing on WISCONSIN (vs Texas A & M Corpus Christi as my *10 Blue Marlin on Tuesday @ 9 PM ET - Off back to back losses to two in-state foes (Marquette and Wisconsin Milwaukee), the Badgers will take out their frustration on a much weaker foe in this match-up. Wisconsin had won 6 of their last 8 games before dropping two straight games to the Golden Eagles and Panthers. The Badgers have still been playing solid defense but their offense failed them recently. Look for them to take advantage of hosting a Texas A & M Corpus Christi team that has not faced near the schedule that they have. Also, the Islanders are 5-0 at home but just 2-2 away from home and Texas A & M CC lost those two games by an average margin of 18 points to UT and the A & M Aggies. Corpus Christi likes to play an uptempo game under head coach Willis Wilson but that will be stifled by Bo Ryan's Badgers. Especially with Wisconsin off back to back losses, look for an exceptional defensive performance from the Badgers. This is the type of game that will show the gap in conference strength between the Big Ten and the Southland Conference.

I am playing on SOUTH ALABAMA (vs Southern Miss) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Monday @ 8 PM ET - The Jaguars are solid in the back-court this season as they have improved in both experience and depth. Though the Jags are off to a tough 3-4 start this season they have cut down on turnovers which is something that plagued them in the past. South Alabama is hosting a 1-6 Southern Miss team so it's the perfect opportunity for the Jaguars to get a big home win to jump start a big winning streak. The Jags offense has struggled at times on the road this season but South Alabama has been solid on their home floor averaging 83.5 points per game. Coming off of tough road loss, the Jaguars should respond with a big home win today. The Southern Miss basketball program continues to struggle as former Golden Eagles coach Donnie Tyndall brought a lot of problems to the program and three more players transferred out during the off-season. The Golden Eagles have been covering game this season but they continue to lose the games straight-up and this line has come down low enough that is absolutely worth a play. Southern Miss is averaging just 51 points per game on the road this season. The Golden Eagles won't be able to keep up with a South Alabama team known for putting up big points on their home floor.

I am playing on INDIANA (vs Toronto) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Monday @ 7:05 PM ET - After getting blasted by a 22 point margin on the road at Detroit on Saturday, the Pacers will respond in a big way on their home court Monday. Indiana is 8-2 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. The Pacers also have revenge on their minds here as they have lost 4 straight games against the Raptors. Indiana has won 7 of their 10 home games this season. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS when off of a divisional game and also 4-1 ATS this season as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Raptors straight-up record is 33-52 in their last 85 games against teams with a winning record. With the small line on this game, any straight-up win for the Pacers is also quite likely to be an ATS cover as well. The Raptors crushed a bad Philadelphia team yesterday evening and that makes this a back to back spot for them. Toronto has lost the 2nd game of a back to back three straight times. Look for that streak to reach four tonight.

I am playing on CHICAGO (vs Washington) as my *10 NFL *Game of the Year* on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - Very tough spot for the Redskins. On Monday night against the Cowboys, Washington had a chance to take sole possession of first place in the NFC East. Instead, they lost a nail-biter 19-16 and now are tied with the Giants and Eagles for first place with the Cowboys just a single game back. Not only is it short rest for the Redskins this week (a physical toll) but there is also the emotional toll of a very tough home loss in a spot where the Skins had a chance to really put themselves in a fantastic position in the division. This is one of only 4 games remaining and the Redskins are still lamenting the position they could have been in. The Bears also come in off of a tough game but the advantages here for Chicago include a second straight home game and the fact the Bears are on regular rest here. The Redskins have lost all 5 of their road games this season and they have only covered one of those five games. Washington is on a 6-15 ATS run in road games the past three seasons and also 4-12 ATS against teams with a losing record. The Bears are 6-2 ATS this season when playing on rest of six days or less. Chicago had a 20-13 edge in first downs against the 49'ers last week and the Bears did outplay the Niners but lost in OT. Chicago will bounce back huge this week against a Redskins team that is losing by an average margin of 15 points per defeat on the road this season and that has been outgained by more than 150 yards per game in road games this year. Look for Chicago's ground game on offense and solid pass defense (rank as one of the best in the league) to key this big win over Washington Sunday.

I am playing on CLEVELAND (vs San Francisco) as my *10 BLUE MARLIN on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The 49'ers are off of a 'fluke' win at Chicago last week as they won in overtime despite only having 13 first downs in the entire game. San Francisco now faces a Browns team that is very hungry for a win and at home with Johnny Manziel back under center. Look for this to result in a big effort from the Browns and Cleveland will take advantage of a San Francisco team traveling east for a second straight week. The 49'ers had averaged just 10.4 points per game in their five games prior to the crazy win at Chicago last week. San Francisco has struggled to move the ball all season long. The Browns have averaged 269 passing yards per game in their past three games and Manziel has had a big game against the division rival Steelers in his most recent start. The 49'ers are 23-40 ATS in road games with a total set in a range between 38.5 and 42 points. San Francisco also was 0-5 straight-up and 1-4 ATS this season in road games before coming up with the win at Chicago last week. Look for Cleveland to respond in a big way for a home win here as Manziel has another big game against a weak Niners defense.

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (@ Kansas City) as my *10 NFL Shocker Game of the Week on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - Kansas City got the win at Oakland last week despite being outgained by a 361 to 232 margin. The Chiefs were quite fortunate and that 34-23 win is helping to drive this line higher than it should be. San Diego is off a loss to Denver but the Chargers held the Broncos to just 17 points and less than 300 yards of offense. San Diego now seeks revenge against the Chiefs for an embarrassing 33-3 loss at home just three weeks ago. That said, there is no shortage of motivation here for the Chargers and San Diego has averaged 356 passing yards per game in the Chargers last three road games. Phillip Rivers and Company will be ready to do some damage here after being held to 3 points last week by Denver and also held to 3 points in their prior match-up with the Chiefs. The Chargers are already a perfect 2-0 ATS this season when off of a loss against a division rival and I look for them to make up for the loss to Denver by absolutely giving the Chiefs all they can handle here. Kansas City has gone 5-9 ATS when off of a divisional game and the "lucky" win over Oakland last week makes them very vulnerable to a hungry underdog San Diego team this week.

I am playing on #628 - PORTLAND (vs Cal State Sacramento) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Saturday @ 10 PM ET - Portland lost some key players from last seasons team so they knew some junior college transfers would have to be key contributors and that is exactly what has happened. Frontcourt newcomers Jarrel Marshall and Ray Barreno have come in and done a good job in the paint for the Pilots. Portland was already strong on the perimeter with guys like Alec Wintering and Bryce Pressley taking care of business. The Pilots come into this game seeking revenge for the March 18th loss to Cal State Sacramento. Portland won the rebounding battle in that game and took more shots from the field but CS Sacramento had a rare strong shooting night, including from beyond the arc, and that was the difference in the game. It is payback time tonight. The Pilots are on a 19-11 ATS run in non-conference games. Cal State Sacramento has lost 23 of their last 34 road games and this is a very manageable line for Portland to cover. 

I am playing on DALLAS (vs Washington) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Saturday @ 8:35 ET - Washington was in New Orleans last night and now had to travel to Dallas for this game. This is only the 12th of December and yet it will be the 8th game already this month for the Wizards. Needless to say this is a tough scheduling spot for Washington. Dallas is playing just their 5th game in the last 11 days and had two off days prior to this game. The Mavs have dominated the Wizards in their last two meetings (average margin of victory of 19.5 points per game) and Dallas has won all five meetings with Washington the past three seasons. The Wizards were heading into the game at New Orleans last night having lost seven of their last ten games. Though Washington is playing this game with home loss revenge (annihilated by the Mavericks earlier this season in DC), that is a situation that has seen the Wizards go 0-3 ATS this season. Look for the Mavs to improve to 7-3 ATS as a favorite this season as they take advantage of the favorable scheduling situation here while sending the weary Wizards to another loss. 

I am playing on ATLANTA (vs San Antonio) as my *10 Main Event on Saturday @ 8:05 PM ET - The Hawks lost by 20 at San Antonio last month so a little payback is on order here. Atlanta has won 8 of their last 11 home games and here they are a home dog against the Spurs. San Antonio is in a back to back spot and they've been wanting to get rest for Tony Parker plus Kawhi Leonard has not been 100%. After hosting the Spurs Friday night San Antonio had to quickly head east to Atlanta for this game. It will be the 7th game in 11 nights for an aging Spurs team. The Hawks are rested here as they were off last night. San Antonio has a 5-11 ATS mark in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less. The Hawks are on a 9-4 ATS run as a home dog of 3 points or less. Revenge, rest, scheduling situation...it all combines to provide for a very strong home dog situation involving the Hawks. Grab Atlanta for a *10 in this spot.

I am playing on ARMY (vs Navy) as my *10 Main Event on Saturday @ 3 PM ET - Big points here. Of course it goes without saying that Navy is the better team by far but these teams are very familiar with each other and often run similar offenses. That helps close the gap between the teams even though the Midshipmen are definitely superior. This is a big reason that the Black Knights have covered 4 of the last 6 meetings. Also, looking closely at the lost four years worth of meetings, Army has been in the game with a chance to win it in the fourth quarter in three of the past four years. The Midshipmen have had trouble putting away the Black Knights in recent meetings and that should be the case again Saturday. Navy is 2-4 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. Army is 17-9 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points. The Black Knights have covered 3 of their last four games played on a neutral field. Army is only allowing 28.5 points per game on the season and yet here they are an underdog of more than 3 TDs against a Navy team that has struggled to create much separation from them in recent meetings. Look for the Black Knights to stay well within this inflated number. 

I am playing on #528 - WISCONSIN (vs Marquette) as my *10 Main Event on Saturday @ 1:30 PM ET - The Badgers want to protect their home turf here against the boys from Milwaukee. Marquette comes to Madison on Saturday and Wisconsin will be fired up after their loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee on Wednesday. After that defeat, the Badgers need to respond against the Golden Eagles as Wiscy doesn't want to lose to both in-state rivals back to back. Wisconsin's six wins this season have come by an average margin of 14 points per game so covering this relatively small number should not be a problem. The Badgers certainly have played the much tougher schedule in comparison with Marquette so far this season. The Golden Eagles are 7-2 so far this season but the two losses included a loss to Belmont and a 28 point loss at the hands of Iowa. Look for another blowout loss here as Marquette is catching their 'big brother' in their home state at absolutely the wrong time. The Badgers are angry and Wisconsin gets the big win here.

I am playing on INDIANA (vs Miami) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Friday @ 7:05 PM ET - The Heat have enjoyed a home-heavy schedule to start the season as 14 of their first 20 games have been in Miami. However, tonight's game at Indiana is part of a stretch where the Heat are playing 4 of 5 games on the road and Miami's struggles away from home have seen them go 2-4 SU and ATS so far this season on the road. Indiana will be ready to bounce back at home after being dealt a home loss by Golden State. Certainly there was no shame in losing a tight battle with the Warriors on Tuesday as they are still undefeated on the season! The Pacers had previously won 6 of their 8 home games this season and are ready to respond after a rare home loss. When playing with two days of rest Indiana is 6-1 ATS this season. In their games against teams with a winning record the Pacers have gone 7-1 ATS this season. The Heat are 13-23 ATS in games in the month of December the past 2+ years. Home/road values are the key to this play on Indiana who deserves more respect as a home favorite here. The Pacers are a big value at this low number.

I am playing on SACRAMENTO (vs New York) as my *10 Main Event on Thursday @ 10:35 PM ET - The Kings were off last night while the Knicks were battling it out with the Jazz in Utah. New York lost by 21 points yesterday to the same Jazz team that the Kings just beat 114-106 on Tuesday. Look for Sacramento to take advantage of a Knicks team now dealing with a tough back to back spot. New York has lost 7 of its last 9 games. Included in this stretch is 4 straight road losses for the Knicks and traveling to Sacramento is unlikely to improve things for New York. The Knicks have lost 13 of their last 19 visits to Sacramento. Also, New York's most recent meeting with the Kings was an ugly beating by a margin of 38 points. Sacramento shot 56% from the field against Utah on Tuesday and the offense stays hot here against a Knicks team not too excited about playing defense after having battled with the Jazz in Utah last night. The Kings did allow 106 points to Utah Tuesday and Sacramento is 9-4 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. The Knicks are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games against Pacific Division opponents. Look for the Kings to again pound the Knicks as they take advantage of home court plus catch New York in a back to back.

I am playing on MINNESOTA (@ Arizona) as my *10 Main Event on Thursday @ 8:25 ET - The Vikings only had 9 first downs in last week's embarrassing 38 to 7 home loss to Seattle. The Cardinals only gave up 9 first downs in their easy 27 to 3 road win at St Louis last week. This sets things up very nicely for a contrarian play this week as the team (Minnesota) that got dominated last week now takes on the team (Arizona) that was on the right side of some domination last week. Of course most will flock to back the Cardinals here but that is underestimating the emotional aspect of football. Off of that insanely ugly loss last week, the Vikings are likely to bounce back with a huge effort this week. As for the Cardinals, they could be a little flat here after the big divisional win last week and Arizona is hosting a Minnesota team that has covered 14 of last 18 in non-divisional games. The Vikings are very solid against the pass and also have a powerful ground game on offense. Look for both of these areas of strength to be keys that help keep Minnesota inside the large number on this game. The Cardinals are on a 2-5 ATS run when off of a win against a division rival. Also, Arizona is on a 1-4 ATS run in Thursday games and have failed to cover the spread 8 of the last 9 times they have been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. The Vikings are 11-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in road games this season.

I am playing on MISSOURI STATE (vs IUPU-Indianapolis) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Thursday @ 8 PM ET - Both of these teams have struggled early this season but Missouri State's 2-5 record is helping to create some line value here. The Bears have played the tougher schedule early this season, are at home for this game, and are only two years removed from a season in which they won 20 games. The Bears added some solid junior college transfers under the direction of coach Paul Lusk and this team will jell as a unit. Tonight Missouri State takes advantage of hosting an IUPUI team that is projected to be among the worst in The Summit League. That says a lot because the Jaguars conference certainly is not on par with The Missouri Valley Conference that is the home of the Bears. IUPU-Indianapolis was just 10-21 last season and is off to a 3-7 start this season. The Jaguars are 23-36 ATS in games against teams with a losing record. The Bears have a straight up record of 22-9 in home games the past two seasons and this will be just their third home game this season as they look to go to 2-1 at home on the year. With the small number on this game, any SU victory is likely to also be an ATS win and I look for Missouri State (always tough to beat here) to get the job done again on their home floor. The Bears just beat Oklahoma State outright as a double digit dog in their most recent game. IUPUI is really beat up mentally after their 27 point loss at Purdue in their last game.

I am playing on PEPPERDINE (vs Long Beach State) as my *10 CBB Blue Marlin on Wednesday @ 10 PM ET - Long Beach State is 5-5 so far this season. In the long run they may end up being a solid team in the Big West Conference this season. However, in the short-term there is certainly some early season adjustments going on. The 49ers lost all five starters from last season's team. Long Beach State has been cashing tickets at the window early this season but that is helping to provide some line value here as Pepperdine is a very small home favorite even though the 49ers have lost 5 of their last 7 games straight-up. Any win for the Waves is likely to result in ATS cover here as well for Pepperdine thanks to the low spread posted on this game. The Waves come into this game with only a 4-4 mark on the year but this is a team that has improved from 10 wins to 12 wins to 15 wins to 18 wins in their first four seasons under coach Marty Wilson. The Waves also returned nearly every key player from last season's team. Pepperdine is known for solid defense as they held opponents to 61.6 points per game last season. Heading into this game, the Waves have given up just 61.5 points per game in their last 4 games. Pepperdine is off of a big 15 point win at Cal-State Northridge on Saturday and carries momentum from that win into this home game for bragging rights in the LA area. Long Beach State is 8-16 ATS in road games with a total set in the 135 to 139.5 range. Pepperdine is 12-5 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Look for the Waves stingy defense to get the job done again tonight. 

I am playing on PHOENIX (vs Orlando) as my *10 NBA Blue Marlin @ 9:05 PM ET - The Suns have won three of their last four meetings with the Magic both straight-up and against the spread. Phoenix also has won 12 of the last 17 games hosting Orlando. The Suns are thrilled to be back home as this will be the first home game for Phoenix since Black Friday! The Suns bring a little momentum into this match-up as Phoenix got a much-need victory at Chicago on Monday to wrap up their tough six-game road trip back east. Orlando is in the middle of a road trip of their own as they are wrapping up a five-game road trip tonight. What makes this spot extra tough for the Magic is that they were at Denver last night. Orlando 'left it all on the floor' last night as they got the 85-74 win over the Nuggets. The Magic are on a 7-15 ATS run against teams from the Pacific Division. Also, Orlando is on a 35-53 ATS run in games against teams with a losing record. The Suns are 4-0 ATS this season - and 20-6 ATS the last 3 seasons - in home games with a total set in a range of 205 to 209.5 points. Phoenix is 41-26 ATS in non-conference games and 19-9 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. Look for the Suns to take advantage of being back at home as they catch the Magic in a tough scheduling spot. 

I am playing on WISCONSIN (vs Wisconsin-Milwaukee) as my *10 CBB Personal Favorite on Wednesday @ 9:00 PM ET - The Badgers blasted the Panthers by 39 points last season and this is nothing new as Wisconsin also crushed Wisconsin-Milwaukee the year before by a 26 point margin. Both teams come into this match-up with identical 6-3 records so far this season but the Badgers have played the tougher schedule early this season. Wisconsin has compiled a 17-7 ATS mark in home games with a total set in a range of 135 to 139.5 points. The Badgers have covered 3 straight games (and 25 of their last 42) as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. The Panthers are on a 4-8 ATS run in December games while the Badgers are on a 10-5 ATS run in games in the month of December. Wisconsin has held each of their last two opponents to 38% or less from the field. Both games were solid wins and covers for the Badgers. The Panthers have failed to cover three of their last four games heading into this match-up. Prior to holding Southern Illinois - Edwardsville to 51 points Thursday, Wisconsin-Milwaukee gave up an average of 77 points per game in their four prior games. The Panthers defense will prove to be no match for the tough defense of coach Bo Ryan's Badgers and this one turns into a Wiscy blowout.

I am playing on TORONTO (vs San Antonio) as my *10 NBA BEST BET on Wednesday @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors battled hard but came up just short against the Warriors on Saturday. Now, after blasting the Lakers Monday, Toronto gets a shot at the #2 team in the league. The Spurs are in town and the Raptors are relishing the shot at knocking off San Antonio here after that tight Saturday loss to the #1 team, Golden State, who is now 23-0 on the season. Toronto is seeking revenge for a 10 point loss at San Antonio in their most recent meeting in March. The Raptors have some incredible money-earning stats in their favor here as they are 7-0 ATS in games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, Toronto is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season. As strong as the Spurs are, they are not superhuman. That said, it's hard to be entirely focused on your next opponent when you are off of a blowout win of epic proportions. The Spurs absolutely annihilated the 76'ers in Philly on Monday as they won by a margin of 51 points! Look for San Antonio to come out a little flat here as a result and the Raptors have the talent to take advantage. Excellent home dog value here with Toronto.

I am playing on STONY BROOK (vs Notre Dame) as my *10 Main Event Tuesday @ 9 PM ET - There is a reason this line is so low on Notre Dame. Stony Brook is projected to be the top team in the America East Conference this season. The Seawolves are led by the best player in their conference, Jameel Warney and he is one of five returning starters that coach Steve Pikiell's team has on board for this season. This is the same Stony Brook team that would have made the field of 64 last season except for a buzzer beater in the AEC Championship game against Albany. Of course the Seawolves don't play as tough of a schedule as Notre Dame does but Stony Brook has beaten Princeton and Loyola-MD this season and the two Seawolves losses came by just one point to Western Kentucky and seven points to Vanderbilt. Stony Brook has played solid defense again this season and that will help keep them in this game all the way through. Notre Dame is likely to overlook Stony Brook as the Fighting Irish are coming off of 3 straight games against the likes of Iowa, Alabama, and Illinois. Undoubtedly this game means more to Stony Brook than it does to Notre Dame. Stony Brook has a 5-2 ATS mark in road games. The Irish are on an 8-20 ATS mark in home games including an 0-6 ATS mark in home games where they are a 6.5 to 9 point favorite. 

I am playing on INDIANA (vs Golden State) as my *10 MAIN EVENT on Tuesday @ 7 ET - The Warriors have now alternated wins and losses (in terms of ATS covers) in each of their last four games. With their incredible 22-0 straight-up record on the season they are beginning to be over-valued by the betting markets. Playing their 5th straight road game and facing a Pacers team that is 6-2 straight-up at home this season, Golden State is likely to fall short of the money again on Tuesday night. Indiana is well-rested here as the Pacers have been off since Saturday's tight loss at Utah. The Pacers are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest. Indiana also has a great history of covering against Golden State as the Pacers are 14-5 ATS in home games against the Warriors. This included an Indiana six point win back in January. The Pacers are 7-0 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Indiana is also 5-1 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they scored 105 points or more. Indiana began this season with three straight-up (and ATS) losses but since then the Pacers have not lost (or failed to cover) in three straight games. Coming into this game well-rested but off of back to back straight-up and ATS losses, it is the ideal time to back a Pacers team that hasn't lost three straight games since October.

I am playing on OREGON (vs Navy) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Monday @ 9:45 PM ET - This game is being played in Hawaii. Oregon is 8-1 ATS in neutral court games with a total set in a range of 135 to 139.5 points. The Ducks, overall, are on a 7-3 ATS run in all games with a total set in a range of 130 to 139.5 points. Oregon is on a 20-12 ATS run in non-conference games and the Midshipmen are going to have trouble matching up with this solid PAC-12 team. Navy is on a 6-9 ATS run in lined, non-conference games. The Midshipmen have a great record on the season but haven't played any significant competition other than Florida. In that game against the Gators, Navy was blown out and failed to cover the spread as the Midshipmen made just 29% of their shots from the field. For the first time in three and a half weeks Navy is involved in a lined game and, just as they were against the Gators, look for the Midshipmen to be outclassed here. Navy is again projected to be among the weakest teams in the Patriot League and they lost the only two double digit scorers they had on last season's team. Oregon is coming off of their first loss of the season, a tight one against UNLV, and the Ducks will take advantage of now facing a much weaker foe to bounce back with a huge victory on Monday. 

I am playing on DALLAS (@ Washington) as my *10 NFC East *GAME OF THE YEAR* on Monday @ 8:30 PM ET - Dallas has won three of their last four meetings with Washington. Last year the Cowboys wrapped up the season by demolishing the Redskins in a 44-17 final. With the Giants losing to the Jets on Sunday, the NFC East is still absolutely up for grabs. Dallas is certainly well aware of the fact that, no matter how frustrating this season has been to this point, the Cowboys can move to within a game of first place by knocking off the Redskins tonight. Dallas is coming off of a loss to Carolina on Thanksgiving Day so they have the rest edge heading into this match-up as the Redskins hosted the Giants on Sunday last week. The Cowboys held the Panthers under 300 yards of offense last week but Dallas lost the game because of turnovers. The Redskins got by the Giants last week but they were the beneficiary of a 3-0 edge in turnovers just as the Cowboys were on the wrong side of a 3-0 turnover margin against Carolina. All of this is combining to create some nice line value for the underdog in this Monday night match-up. Though the Cowboys are again without Romo, the Dallas defense has been playing exceptionally well in their last three games. The road team has won each of the last three meetings between these teams and I look for that to be the end result tonight as well. The points are worth taking in this match-up. The Redskins are on a 13-27 ATS run as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Dallas is on a 6-2 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 

I am playing on NEW ORLEANS (vs Boston) as my *10 Main Event on Monday @ 8:05 ET - Boston battled hard at San Antonio on Saturday night but came up just short. That is the type of tough defeat that is difficult to bounce back from. Look for the Celtics to struggle tonight in New Orleans as a result. The Pelicans are well rested here as they have been off since Friday after knocking off the Cavaliers at home that night. Though the Pelicans overall record does not impress, New Orleans has won four of their last six home games and this is an ideal spot to keep the strong play going at home. Boston's straight-up record on the road is 33-61 the past 2+ seasons. Also, the Celtics have lost 20 of their last 24 games against Southwest Division opponents. The Pelicans are 14-8 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less. Boston's David Lee is expected to miss tonight's game and this certainly hurts the frontcourt depth of the Celtics. Boston won both match-ups with the Pelicans last season including the game in New Orleans in March. A little payback is in order tonight and this is the Pelicans only game in the span of a week so you know a huge effort is forthcoming. Boston could get caught looking ahead to their next game as it will be back home against an Eastern Conference foe (Chicago). 

I am playing on CHARLOTTE (vs Detroit) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Monday @ 7:05 ET - Scheduling situation here favors the Hornets in a big way. Detroit battled with the Lakers yesterday and that makes this a back to back spot for the Pistons. Detroit has lost the 2nd game of their back to back situations three of the four times it has occurred this season. Charlotte was off yesterday and the Hornets have won 11 of their last 16 games. Charlotte is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Hornets also are 48-35 ATS the last three seasons in their games against teams with a winning record. In games against the Central Division, Charlotte is on a 25-14 ATS run. The Pistons got the big home win yesterday but they are a money-burning 4-7 ATS on the road this season. As a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points, Detroit is 6-10 ATS the last three seasons. Charlotte is catching the Pistons at the ideal time to exact revenge for an embarrassing 116 to 77 loss at Detroit in April. Indeed it is payback time!

I am playing on WASHINGTON (vs CS-Fullerton) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Sunday @ 9 PM ET - Cal-State Fullerton went 1-15 in the Big West Conference last season and comes into this season again projected to be the worst team in the conference. This is a team that finished up last year losing each of its last nine games. Also, Cal-State Fullerton only returned two players from last season's team who averaged more than 5 points per game last season. With that said, look for a powerful PAC-12 team, Washington, to win this one in an absolute rout. The Huskies are 9-2 ATS in games where the total is set between 150 and 159.5 points. Cal State Fullerton has gone 6-18 ATS as a road dog in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Fullerton has surprised some early with a 6-1 record this season but they have played a weak scheduled and that is what will be evident when they try to match up with the Huskies on Sunday night. Cal State Fullerton is 2-6 ATS in December games the past two years. The Huskies are coming off of three straight non-covers and this is a situation that has seen Washington go 6-3 ATS the past two seasons so look for the big win and cover for the Huskies Sunday night. 

I am playing on BROOKLYN (vs Golden State) as my *10 BEST BET Sunday @ 6:05 ET - The Warriors appear to be overvalued again here just like they were yesterday in Toronto. After barely squeaking by the Raptors yesterday, Golden State is now a double digit favorite at Brooklyn the very next night. A back to back situation on the East Coast is a tough test for this West Coast team no matter how dominant they have been so far this season. The tight win at Toronto was the 2nd close call that the Warriors have had in their last three games as their amazing unbeaten streak to open up the season certainly appears lose to ending. This back to back spot on the road is a tough spot for any team to blowout another on the road. This is even tougher when the opponent is a Brooklyn team that is on a 10-2 ATS run. The Nets have been big money-earners at the ticket window in recent weeks and Brooklyn will be absolutely rocking for this shot at the unbeaten Warriors Sunday evening. The Nets already covered earlier this season at Golden State and Brooklyn also covered both games with Golden State in last season's series. The Nets are 6-2 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Warriors are 0-3 ATS against teams from the Atlantic Division this season. The Nets will give Golden State all they can handle Sunday as every team is gunning for the Warriors right now and Brooklyn is next in line to cover the inflated numbers set by the marketplace.

I am playing on NEW ORLEANS (vs Carolina) as my *10 Best Bet on Sunday @ 4:25 ET - The Saints fit the definition of a classic 'ugly dog' as New Orleans has lost - and also failed to cover - three straight games. This lack of performance at the betting window has led to some exceptional home dog value with New Orleans this week. Oftentimes when no one wants a team that is precisely the best time to back them. The Saints are getting a lot of value here because the Panthers are undefeated on the season, have covered four straight games, and everyone watched Carolina trounce Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. What is interesting about the Turkey Day game is that the Panthers had less than 300 yards of offense against the Cowboys. The key to the win for Carolina was the Dallas turnovers as the Cowboys had three in the game. In fact, the Panthers offense has only averaged about 322 yards per game in their last three games. New Orleans is averaging over 400 yards of offense per game on the season and I look for them to give the Panthers all they can handle here. It is easy for Carolina to overlook the 4-7 Saints here as the Panthers are 11-0 on the season and have defeated New Orleans in each of their last two meetings. The Saints will be out for revenge here and are likely to be the more motivated team. New Orleans is 3-0 ATS this season and 7-2 ATS the last three seasons when playing with revenge. Look for a shocker at the Superdome on Sunday.

I am playing on PHILADELPHIA (@ New England) as my *10 Game of the Week on Sunday @ 4:25 ET - Sam Bradford is expected to be back at QB for the Eagles this week and anyone who doesn't think that is a big deal must not have watched Marc Sanchez play the last few weeks. The fact is that, with the whole world against the Eagles and coach Chip Kelly, there has likely never been a better time to back them than this week. The Patriots are dealing with a major injury bug and also are coming off of a meltdown defeat at Denver that ended their unbeaten season. While a common theory is to back a good team off of a loss, the Patriots are likely to have some carryover effect from the loss to the Broncos. That defeat against a Broncos team playing with Osweiler at QB says a lot about just how bad the Patriots current situation is. They are plagued by injuries that have limited the weapons Tom Brady has to throw to. Additionally, the Pats offensive line injuries throughout the season have worn on them up to this point even as they have gotten healthier along the line. The cohesiveness of the unit has not been the same. That's part of the reason the Pats were outgained by over 100 yards last week at Denver. With the Pats offense struggling the points could again be a little harder to come by this week as the Eagles defense has welcomed the extra rest since they played on Thanksgiving. Philly's D is fired up for a strong performance after the rarity of allowing a ridiculous 45 points in back to back weeks. The Patriots are 15-27 ATS in home games with a total set between 45.5 and 49 points. The Eagles are 7-4 straight-up in their last 11 games on turf and, with good weather expected in New England and the Eagles having the healthier offense, look for Philly to be in this one all the way and possibly even steal the upset win on the road.

I am playing on TENNESSEE (vs Jacksonville) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 1 ET - Jacksonville got the home win over Tennessee in mid-November and now it is time for the Titans to return the favor in the rematch. The home team has won each of the last three meetings between these teams. Additionally, the Jaguars are dealing with a cluster of injuries while the Titans come into this game in surprisingly good shape from an injury standpoint. The Titans have a long-term record of 21-11 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less. The Jaguars are on a 15-22 ATS run as an underdog. The Jags came back late to beat the Titans in their recent match-up. Also, Tennessee gave up a late TD for the deciding score in their loss to Oakland last week. These tight losses have led to value here with the short home favorite Sunday. On the season the Titans have the better defense, they also are the healthier team, they have the home field edge here, and they rank among the league leaders in sacks with a better pass rush than the Jaguars. Look for Tennessee to get the big revenging win here.

I am playing on IOWA (vs Michigan State) as my *10 CFB Game of the Week @ 8:15 ET Saturday - Of course this battle is for more than just the Big Ten Championship as the winner will undoubtedly be in line for one of the 'final four' playoff spots. I am backing the undefeated Hawkeyes who come into this one as an underdog despite having a fantastic season with an unblemished record. Iowa has covered 9 of the last 12 meetings between these teams and there have been 5 outright upsets by the dog in the last 12 match-ups. Both teams have stellar defenses but Iowa's offense has shown a little more this season and also gets a boost with the return of RB Canzeri who is back healthy and has run for nearly 1,000 yards plus 12 TD's this season. Iowa was held to 28 points in their win over Nebraska last week but had previously scored at least 40 points in 4 of their last 8 games. The Spartans scored 55 points in their blowout win over Penn State last week but, prior to that, Michigan State had only scored more than 38 points once this entire season. Look for Iowa's powerful ground game to be the difference maker on offense in this one. The Hawkeyes ground game has averaged 70+ more yards per game when you compare what Iowa and Michigan State have each done over their last 7 games. Look for the Hawkeyes to pound out one more win. The Spartans are 3-7 ATS as a favorite this season. Iowa is 7-3 ATS as a dog the last 3 seasons.

I am playing on AIR FORCE (vs San Diego State) as my *10 Best Bet on Saturday @ 7:30 PM ET - The Aztecs have lost (and failed to cover) both times they hosted a non-regular season game at home in Qualcomm Stadium. The most recent time was in the 2014 Poinsettia Bowl when San Diego State faced Navy (coincidentally also a triple option team like Air Force) and the Aztecs lost 17 to 16. San Diego State does have a solid defense but their passing attack has not been overly impressive under QB Smith. It will be difficult for the Aztecs to build up a margin here if they have to rely too heavily on Pumphrey and the running game. The Falcons were 6-1 in Mountain West action this season before they seemingly overlooked New Mexico last week and ended up losing by a dozen points. Look for that loss to have Air Force a little extra aggressive with this big opportunity now on the table in the Mountain West Championship Game Saturday. The Falcons are 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season. San Diego State has been held to 144 yards or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Air Force, well known for their powerful ground attack, has also been getting the job done through the air in recent weeks with a 239 passing yards per week the past three weeks. The Falcons were hurt by turnovers last week at New Mexico and that has impacted the line set on this game. Air Force is simply getting too many points in this match-up and San Diego State once again struggles with a triple option team.

I am playing on TORONTO (vs Golden State) as my *10 Best Bet on Saturday @ 5:05 PM ET - Don't be surprised if the Raptors get the OUTRIGHT WIN here to put an end to Golden State's unbeaten season. Toronto battled tooth and nail with the Warriors in their earlier meeting this season in California. That tight loss (by just 5 points) gives the Raptors the confidence they need to pull off the upset here. Toronto was looking ahead to this match-up with the 20-0 Warriors when the Raptors lost to Denver on Thursday. Toronto had won 5 of their last 6 games before that defeat and the Raptors are hungry to get right back on track here. The Warriors were involved in a narrow escape recently (at Utah) to keep their streak alive and I am forecasting the streak to either end here or continue only by way of yet another narrow escape. In other words, the generous points being offered here are worth the taking. Toronto is a fantastic 6-1 this season as an underdog. Also, the Raptors are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record. 

I am playing on FLORIDA (vs Alabama) as my *10 Main Event on Saturday @ 4 ET - Looks like another case of a very strong football team simply being given way too many points. While Alabama certainly is deserving of plenty of respect, laying this many points against a Gators team that has only given up more than 14 points in 4 of their 12 games this season certainly seems to be a little much. Florida can play 'some D' to say the least! The Gators have one of the top defenses in the nation and Florida now faces an Alabama team that also has a stellar defense but whose offense is perhaps not as powerful as what the betting markets are suggesting here. The Crimson Tide offense has been held to 31 points or less in each of their last 6 SEC games and none of those contests was against a defense as strong as the Gators defense. Though Florida's defensive line is a little 'beat up' heading into this game it is still a formidable defensive unit that is going to challenge the Crimson Tide offense. Alabama has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games played in domes. The Gators are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played on a neutral field. Big points here...big points worth the taking. Florida's 25 points loss to FSU last week saw them outgained by only 42 yards in the game so the 'deceiving final score' is helping to offer line value here.

I am playing on HOUSTON (@ Dallas) as my *10 Best Bet on Friday @ 8:35 ET - There is a chance that the Rockets Dwight Howard may miss this game to rest up for the home game that Houston has against Sacramento Saturday. This seems to be getting a bit of an over-reaction from the betting markets and the Rockets are being given some sizable points in this match-up. Houston knocked the Mavs out of the playoffs last spring but then the Mavs got some revenge in Houston last month so this is a revenge game for the Rockets after the home loss on the 14th of November. The Mavericks come into this game off of an upset win at Portland on Tuesday. Dallas won outright as a small dog in that game. The Mavs have gone 10-16 ATS when off of an upset win as an underdog. Also, prior to the Dallas win at Houston last month, the Rockets had gone 9-4 SU and ATS in their last 13 match-ups with the Mavs. Houston matches up very well with Dallas and they continue to exert their series dominance here as they get revenge for last month's loss. Even if they are without Howard, the Rockets are adept at winning games with the 'small ball' approach and their smaller lineup will get the job done with speed in transition on both ends of the floor. 

I am playing on DUQUESNE (@ Pittsburgh) as my *10 Best Bet on Friday @ 7 ET - Duquesne is knocking down over 50% of their shots from the field this season and the Dukes have already covered 3 of their first 4 games. Duquesne is located in Pittsburgh and they always have plenty of motivation about facing their 'big school' rivals. The Dukes face the Panthers on Friday and Pitt has been over-valued early this season and has failed to cover 3 of their first 4 games. With the hot shooting that Duquesne has displayed early this season I don't see them being out of this game at any point on Friday night. The other key is that if the Panthers are able to establish a significant lead, the Dukes certainly would have great 'backdoor cover' potential with the way they've been knocking down shots. A high-scoring game is being called for by the oddsmakers tonight and Duquesne is 8-3 ATS in games with a total set in the 150 to 159.5 range. The Panthers are just 17-31 ATS as a favorite the last 3 seasons and have gone an awful 1-9 ATS in December the last three years.

I am playing on PORTLAND (vs Indiana) as my *10 BEST BET on Thursday @ 10:05 PM ET - The Blazers have a huge edge here as they were off yesterday and now get to host a Pacers team that had to battle it out with the Clippers in LA last night. Indiana has been rolling this season but this is a tough spot from a scheduling perspective. Additionally, the Pacers have been struggling against the Trail Blazers in recent meetings as Portland has held them to 85 points or less in each game...both of which resulted in Indiana losses. The Pacers went into last night's game at Los Angeles with an 0-4 ATS mark in non-conference games this season. As a road favorite of 3 points or less the past two seasons Indiana went 7-14 ATS. Portland has gone 4-1 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less the past three seasons and that record is 52-32 ATS long-term. This is a proven situation that the Blazers thrive in and they are absolutely catching the Pacers at the perfect time to get the big home win. Look for Indiana to struggle again in this back to back spot as their ATS struggles against the West continue on Thursday night. 

I am playing on GREEN BAY (@ Detroit) as my *10 Main Event on Thursday @ 8:25 ET - The Packers are off of their Thanksgiving Day loss to the Bears where they had 24 first downs (compared to just 17 for Chicago) and where Green Bay did outgain the Bears by 74 yards. The Pack simply did themselves in with turnovers and I look for them to respond in a big way in this revenge match-up with the Lions. Back at Lambeau Field just a few weeks ago, the Lions marched into Green Bay and got their first win there since '91. The Packers are ready to avenge that loss and they catch the Lions at the perfect time to do just that. Detroit is off of a blowout win over the Eagles on Thanksgiving Day. The Lions have now won three straight games but Detroit is 2-8 ATS when they are on a winning streak of two games or more. Overall, the Lions are 3-6 ATS this season (and 6-11 ATS the last three seasons) when they are an underdog. In this match-up Detroit is only getting 3 points against the Packers and Green Bay should win this one in a true road rout. The Packers are 14-6 ATS as a road favorite in divisional games. In Green Bay's most recent road game they went into Minnesota and blasted the Vikings by a 30-13 final score. The Packers defense is giving up about 7 points per game less than Detroit is so far this season. Not only do they have the better defense, Green Bay also has the stronger ground game attack on offense and I look for that rushing attack to wear down the Lions here as the Packers get the revenge win on the road.

I am playing on HOUSTON (vs New Orleans) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Wednesday @ 8:05 PM ET - New Orleans is in a tough back to back spot here. They were home against Memphis last night but the Pelicans are now back on the road Wednesday. New Orleans has lost 9 of their 10 road games this season and the back to back element with this one makes the situation even tougher. So far this season the Pelicans are 0-5 in the 2nd night of a back to back and all five losses have come by at least 7 points. The Rockets are laying only a couple buckets in this one and seem well worth the short home price. Unlike New Orleans, Houston was off last night so they come into this game rested as well as winners in 2 of their last 3 games. The Rockets are 41-24 ATS when they are off of a non-conference game. After losing to the Pistons on Sunday, look for that trend for Houston to continue as they get back on track after losing to an Eastern Conference foe as the Rockets may have been caught looking ahead to this divisional match-up. The Pelicans entered Monday's action with an 0-4 ATS mark in games against teams with a losing record this season. Also, New Orleans entered Monday with a 4-9 ATS mark as an underdog this season. The back to back situation and the fact that the Rockets will be fired up off of a loss after having won two straight are keys to this selection. *10 rating here on Houston.

I am playing on WISCONSIN (@ Syracuse) as my *10 Main Event on Wednesday @ 7:15 ET - The Orange are only a small favorite here even though they are undefeated on the season and the Badgers are an unimpressive 4-3 on the season. That alone ought to tell you something here. Wisconsin is the play! When a line looks a little 'off' like this it's time to investigate and in this case, some good supporting points for the Badgers are certainly in place. Syracuse really padded their defensive numbers early this season against some weak competition. In recent games the defense has not been as impressive with 74 points per game allowed in their last 3 games. The Orange have been shooting lights out from three point land but that is also skewing the numbers here. Teams simply can't go on relying on knocking down the high percentage of threes that Syracuse has been draining in recent games. The Badgers have given up a high percentage of threes so far this season so defending the perimeter is already a focus of Wiscy's heading into this game and they magnify that even more based on the early success that Syracuse has had. In other words, look for a full lock-down mode on the perimeter from the Badgers in this one. Wisconsin is 6-2 ATS an underdog the last 3 seasons. Syracuse is 11-19 ATS in home games the last three seasons. The Badgers are a bit of a younger team this season but they've already endured some important early-season growing pains and Bo Ryan will have his team ready for the potential upset tonight. The points are certainly worth taking. *10 Wisconsin

I am playing on PORTLAND (vs Dallas) as my *10 Main Event on Tuesday @ 10:05 PM ET - This is a back to back situation for each club but for the Blazers it's nice to be back home after battling the Clippers in LA last night. For the Mavericks it's another tough night on the road after going toe to toe with the Kings in Sacramento last night. The Mavs went into last night's game having lost three straight road games and I look for the overall road struggles to continue regardless of last night's result. For Dallas this will be their 8th road game in their last 10 games. That is a tough stretch. For the Blazers, they had won 3 of their last 4 games heading into last night's battle with the Clips and Portland also is seeking revenge for a 16 points loss at Dallas in April last spring. This will be their first shot at payback and the Blazers have blasted the Mavs in their last two visits to Portland with an average margin of victory of 20 points per game. Dallas is 0-3 SU and ATS on Tuesday nights this year while Portland is 6-3 ATS this season in games against teams that are allowing 99+points per game this season. Portland gets the job done at home once again where they have a 71-26 record the last 3 seasons combined. 

I am playing on OHIO STATE (vs Virginia) as my *10 ESPN *MAIN EVENT* on Tuesday @ 7:30 PM ET - Part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge and Ohio State is hosting Virginia and yet getting no respect. Certainly Virginia deserves respect as a Top Ten team in the nation but Ohio State is still quite a talented team to be getting this many points on their home floor and I am riding the home dog value in this one. After an upset loss to UT-Arlington the Buckeyes have lost two more games but those defeats came against a solid Louisiana Tech team that is still undefeated on the season as well as a solid Memphis team (that line was right around a pick'em). So, the point is, don't write off the Buckeyes just yet. In fact, look for them to bounce back strong in a spot like this and look for the Cavaliers to be mistaken in underestimating them. The Buckeyes are 3-1 ATS as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Also, Ohio State has a long-term 62-43 ATS mark when facing teams averaging 77+ points per game. The point is they know how to play with teams like the Tigers and this is particularly true when they get them on their own floor. Look for the Buckeyes to test the Cavaliers in Columbus tonight. Virginia has played a weak schedule this season, other than the game against George Washington and the Cavs did lose that game. The Cavaliers also have had a long layoff heading into this game as they haven't played in almost a week (when they faced an overmatched Lehigh team). Virginia is 0-4 ATS the past two seasons when they enter a game having been off for 5 or 6 days between games. Look for a little rust for the Cavaliers in this one. 

I am playing on EDMONTON (vs Ottawa) as my CFL *Game of the Year* on Sunday @ 6:05 PM ET - Sometimes the obvious choice is the right choice. Eskimos are the superior team and come in clicking on all cylinders. Though the Redblacks receivers say they are ready and not concerned about the physical reputation of Edmonton's defense, talking and executing are two very different things. I do feel strongly that Ottawa is going to struggle against the fierce physicality of the Eskimos defense. Edmonton won the two regular season meetings between the teams by a combined score of 69 to 29 and I look for more domination in the Grey Cup as well. Ottawa has a 5 game winning streak heading into the Grey Cup but 4 of the 5 wins were by 7 points or less. Edmonton has won 9 straight games heading into the big game and each of their last 3 victories have been by a double digit margin. Indeed the Esks are peaking at the right time and that will be evident again on Sunday. 

I am playing on SEATTLE (vs Pittsburgh) as my *10 NFL Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 4:25 PM ET - Even though Seattle has had a pair of home losses this season the home of the "12th Man" is still a tough place for visitors to play. The Seahawks have a 21-4 straight-up record here the last 3 years combined. Seattle is 6-1 ATS when they are a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Hawks know how to turn it on at this time of year as they are 7-2 ATS the last three seasons combined in Weeks 10 through 13. Even though Marshawn Lynch is hurt, RB Rawls filled in with huge success last week. The Steelers had a bye last week but they actually have a long-term losing record (15-17 ATS) when off of a bye week. It has proven to not be that big of a edge for Pittsburgh. Also, the Steelers history in Seattle is not good with three straight losses both straight-up and ATS. The Seahawks have the much better defense when comparing these two teams. That combined with Seattle's powerful running game are the keys to victory for the Seahawks here. Seattle has given up 13 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Pittsburgh has allowed 20 points or more in 3 of their 4 road games this season. This small line is offering huge line value to a powerful home team that has gotten their season back on track with wins in 3 of their last 4 games. Look for the Seahawks recent surge to continue here.  

I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO (vs Arizona) as my *10 NFL Shocker *Game of the Week* on Sunday @ 4:05 ET - The 49'ers struggled again on the road last week but they have been a different team at home all season. This includes 3 outright upsets as a home dog so far this season for San Francisco. Now the Niners take on a Cardinals team that is off of a big road win at Cincinnati last week. QB Palmer wanted that game badly as he faced his former team so don't discount the fact that this could be a tough one for he and the Cardinals in terms of being a flat spot. This is particularly true because the Cards are in a bit of a lookahead here with a big revenge match-up against the Rams up next. That helps to make this the perfect spot to grab the 49'ers as an under-rated underdog capable of being dangerous for a team in a flat spot. The Cardinals are 27-36 ATS when they enter a game on a streak of two or more consecutive wins. The 49'ers have given up an average of only 15.2 points per game in their five home games this season. Look for this match-up to be a lot closer than what the betting markets are forecasting. The Niners are a great value as a double digit underdog in this spot.

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (vs Jacksonville) as my *10 NFL *Game of the Month* on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The Jaguars are off of a come from behind win against the Titans last week. Not only that but Jacksonville has now won back to back games for the first time since December of 2013. With that said, I don't foresee the Jags will make it three straight here. Jax will have their hands full with an angry Chargers team. San Diego has not only lost six straight games, they also were thoroughly embarrassed on their home field by the Chiefs last week. That 30 point loss in San Diego means that you can count on a refocused an energized Chargers team hitting the field in Jacksonville on Sunday. Though you wouldn't know it from looking at recent results, these teams are roughly equal across the board except for one area. Looking at yardage production on offense, the Chargers are clearly the better team on offense. That said, the reason for this line has a lot do with recent results and that is what is helping to drive line value toward the underdog Chargers in this one. San Diego is 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, against the AFC South Division, the Chargers have an incredible long-term ATS mark of 24-3. The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS their last five against the AFC West and Jacksonville is also on an ugly 6-11 ATS run in home games. Look for the Chargers to get the upset win here but if they do fall short it should be by a field goal or less. Huge effort from the road dog this week after embarrassment at home last week.

I am playing on CALIFORNIA (vs Arizona State) as THE *10 CFB *GAME OF THE YEAR* on Saturday @ 10 PM ET - Cal is off of a loss at Stanford while Arizona State is off of a huge win over rival Arizona. That sets this up very nicely for a play on the Golden Bears. Cal is 4-1 in home games this season and the four victories have come by an average margin of 31 points per game. The Bears are catching ASU off of a 2nd straight win but the Sun Devils had previously lost three straight games. Arizona State has lost their last two road games by an average margin of 15 points per game and the Bears have been winning big at home all season long. We're getting some line value here because of Cal being off of the loss to Stanford. A key variable there was that the Golden Bears allowed a KR for a TD and Cal settled for three field goals in the red zone. California did outgain the Cardinal by 139 yards and they will pound ASU after the Sun Devils big win last week also made them bowl eligible. This is a definite flat spot for Arizona State and they have gone 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an away dog. In looking at these two teams closely, Cal has the better defense and the Bears are off of a superb defensive effort against Stanford last week. The Golden Bears also definitely have the better offense in this match-up. The Sun Devils have averaged just 21 points in their last two road games. Cal is averaging 43.4 points per game in home games this season. This one should be ALL CAL.

I am playing on FRESNO STATE (vs Colorado State) as my *10 Shocker *Game of the Week* Saturday @ 9 PM ET - It's been a tough year for Fresno State but I expect them to bring a strong effort in their final home game of the year. They are hosting a Rams team that is off of a win in their home finale last week and that made CSU bowl eligible. Off of that big home win and now facing a hungry home dog, the value here looks to be with the Bulldogs. Fresno State won 28-7 in the last meeting between these teams. The Bulldogs also have won three straight home finales are on an 8-1 run in home finales. Fresno State got pounded last week at BYU but a lot of that had to do with being off of a big win on the long road trip to Hawaii the prior week. The Bulldogs got 6 TDs in that game but QB Greenlee then struggled last week. Look for Greenlee and Fresno State to bounce right back here. Colorado State is 6-15 ATS in road games with a total between 56.5 and 63 points. Fresno State is 5-2 ATS as a home dog in a range of 7.5 to 10 points and they are the play here as the points are too much for the Rams to be laying on the road especially when you consider the situational and motivational edges here. 

I am playing on DALLAS (vs Denver) as my *10 NBA TV MAIN EVENT on Saturday @ 8:30 PM ET - Tough spot for Denver as they had to travel to Dallas after battling with the Spurs yesterday. Back to backs are never fun and certainly not when facing San Antonio and then the Mavericks on back to back nights. The situation here is much better for the Mavs as they are rested and ready at home as they've been off since Wednesday. Dallas has won each of their last four home games and they'll bounce back here at home after a tough recent road trip. The Mavericks have won those four home games by an average margin of victory of 9 points per win and I look for their home dominance to continue here. This will be the fourth back to back situation the Nuggets have been in and the first three certainly have not gone well. Denver lost the 2nd night of the back to back all three times and the average margin of defeat was 16.7 points per loss. Look for another blowout loss here as the Mavs take advantage of the scheduling edge. Dallas has won 60 of their last 93 home games while the Nuggets have lost 61 of their last 89 road games. Home court means an awful lot to each of these clubs and that means a big edge for the Mavericks in this one.

I am playing on CREIGHTON (vs Western Illinois) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Saturday @ 8 ET - Western Illinois is 5-0 on the season but they truly have played a weak schedule (other than their upset win of Wisconsin) and have not been tested yet (other than the Badgers). Now they step up in class (as evidenced by being installed as a big dog here) and Western Illinois is on a 3-10 ATS run when they are a big dog of 9.5 to 12 points. Creighton is well aware of the upset win that Western Illinois scored over the Badgers early this season and you can bet that the Bluejays won't underestimate the Leathernecks. Creighton's four wins this season have come by an average margin of 20 points per victory and they'll be ready to roll again here. The Bluejays have gone 5-1 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. Western Illinois is on a 15-25 ATS run as an underdog and a 9-17 ATS run in road games. Many projected the Leathernecks to be at the bottom of the Summit League this season so their strong early start has been a surprise. That makes for even more value in fading them at a reasonable price as they now take a big step up in class to face a solid Bluejays team.

I am playing on USC (vs UCLA) as my *10 CFB Blue Marlin on Saturday @ 3:30 PM ET - UCLA has won and covered in each of the last three meetings between these teams. The Bruins had amassed a double digit lead by halftime in two of those meetings. Needless to say, USC has revenge on their minds here. The winner of this game will clinch the PAC-12 South Division. The Trojans are off of a blowout loss to Oregon last week but was the first time since week 3 of the season that USC was outgained! Also, the Trojans committed 12 penalties for 124 yards. It was an ugly game all the way around and I look for USC to respond in a big way in their rivalry game this week. UCLA is off of a win versus Utah but they were quite fortunate. The Utes, despite scoring only 9 points in the game, did move the ball quite well. Utah had 5 drives of 10 more plays but three resulted in field goals and two were ended on turnovers. This is a back to back road game situation for UCLA and that is a spot in which the Bruins are on a 1-6 ATS run. The Trojans are 17-10 ATS as a home favorite. Factor in the revenge factor and the scheduling edge and the situational edges and you have all the variables working in favor of a blowout home win for the Trojans in this one. 

I am playing on the LA CLIPPERS (vs New Orleans) as my *10 NBA Game of the Week on Friday @ 10:35 ET - New Orleans comes into this game off of back to back wins over the Suns and that includes an upset win at Phoenix. That was the first road game that the Pelicans have won all season long. That puts them in the perfect 'fade spot' now after the rare road win. New Orleans is 4-7 ATS as an underdog this season and the Pelicans are 0-3 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. Even though the Clips have had a tough start to the season, they have shot the ball very well in 2 of their last 3 home games and I look for the Pelicans to struggle to keep up in this one. New Orleans has been held to just 43.7% from the field in road games this season and the Clippers have shot at least 50% from the field in 2 of their last 3 home games. The Clips are off of an upset loss as a favorite and that is a situation that has seen them go 30-11 SU the last 3 seasons combined. Indeed the Clips are hungry for the bounce back home win here and they have won 66 of their last 82 games against teams with a losing record. With the relatively small spread on this game, the SU win is very likely to equate to an ATS win as well. Lay the points with the Clippers. 

I am playing on Orlando (vs Milwaukee) as my *10 Main Event on Friday @ 7:05 ET - Orlando has a long-term run of 26-11 in match-ups between these teams in Orlando. This includes winning 3 of the last 4 played in Florida. However, the Magic did suffer that loss in the most recent match-up that took place between these clubs in Orlando. That was in January of last year and that means that revenge is on order here. The Magic come into this game off of a home win over New York on Wednesday and Orlando has won 5 of their last 6 home games. Milwaukee has not only lost their last three road games, the Bucks have been absolutely annihilated as they've been rolled by an average margin of defeat of 27 points per loss in their last three games away from home. Milwaukee enter this game off of a 129 to 118 home loss to Sacramento. The Bucks are 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored 105 points or more. This is the perfect spot for the Magic to continue their recent run of home domination. 

I am playing on BOISE STATE (@ San Jose State) as my *10 Personal Favorite Friday @ 3:30 ET - Boise State certainly has history on their side in this match-up as the Broncos are 5-0 all-time against San Jose State. Boise State is certainly expected to be fired up here as they have lost back to back home games entering this match-up. This is the first time this has happened to the Broncos in 18 years and I look for Boise State to take out their frustration on a Spartans team that is just 5-6 on the season. San Jose State is off of a win at Hawaii last week so this is certainly a big situational edge for the Broncos. The Spartans are not only off the long trip to Hawaii, they also are on a short week since this game is on a Friday. Look for Boise State to do plenty of damage against San Jose State on the ground in this one. The Spartans have allowed 4 of their last 5 opponents to gain at least 200 yards on the ground. Boise State has the rest edge here as they are off of a Friday game and the Broncos have gone 8-3 ATS when off of a Friday game and they are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 as an away favorite. San Jose State is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. Big situational edges for the Broncos and yet the spread is quite reasonable. Lay the points with Boise State in what should be a rout.

I am playing on CHICAGO (@ Green Bay) as my *10 Turkey Day BEST BET on Thursday @ 8:30 PM ET - The Packers are off of a key divisional win at Minnesota but previously had lost 3 straight. The Bears come into this game off of a tight loss but previously had won 2 straight. The value is clearly with the big dog in bounce back mode especially considering that Green Bay got such a big win on the road last week. Chicago got embarrassed on Thanksgiving Day last year and will be looking to atone for that performance here after they wrapped up last season's appearance by allowing a game-ending 31-3 run to the Lions. Though the records may not reflect it (with the Packers at 7-3 and the Bears at 4-6), statistically Chicago has been a little better than Green Bay on each side of the ball. Additionally, Chicago has an edge in pass protection when looking at this match-up. The Bears had covered 5 of their last 6 before last week's tight loss to Denver. The Packers had failed to cover in 4 straight games before getting the cash against the Vikings. Big value to the big dog in this divisional match-up.

I am playing on TEXAS (vs Texas Tech) as my Turkey Day ESPN *ROAST* on Thursday @ 7:30 ET - Texas has dominated this rivalry and I look for more of the same this year. The Longhorns have won 14 of the last 16 meetings between the teams and they've gotten the ATS cover in 11 of those. Of course with the low point spread on this year's game, any victory is likely to lead to the ATS cover as well and that is what I am fully expecting here. The key here is the difference in the defenses. Even though the Longhorns are off of a loss to West Virginia in their most recent game, UT actually outgained the Mountaineers by 60 yards but four turnovers were the difference maker. The Horns are still hanging on to hopes of bowl eligibility but they know to keep those hopes alive they must get the win this week. Texas Tech, like Texas, is off of a bye week but, unlike the Longhorns, the Red Raiders are off of a win against Kansas State. Prior to that victory, Texas Tech had lost three straight and I look for the Longhorns to quickly return the Red Raiders to their losing ways. Texas Tech has given up 44 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. The Longhorns, before the deceiving final score in their loss at West Virginia, had given up an average of only 17.5 points in their four prior games! Defense wins football games and that will prove to be the case again in this key Big 12 match-up on Thanksgiving Day.

I am playing on DALLAS (vs Carolina) as my *10 Turkey Day Personal Favorite on Thursday @ 4:30 PM ET - The Cowboys are a different team with Tony Romo leading the way. There is no doubt about that. Dallas has gone 16-3 in the last 19 starts Romo has made and he led them to victory against Miami last week. Though Romo had a little rust early in his start against the Dolphins he was able to shake it off and he ended up throwing for 227 yards and two TD's in that game. Also, the Cowboys defense was very impressive against Miami and Dallas has held 3 of their last four opponents to 14 points or less. The Panthers come into this game with a spotless 10-0 record but they've only played one team this season that has a winning record and that was Green Bay. The Packers recent three game losing streaks also shows that the win over The Pack may not even be as impressive as was once thought. The Panthers will have their hands full with a Cowboys team that knows the NFC East is still up for grabs and that seems highly re-energized by Romo's return. The Cowboys were blown out by the Eagles last season on Thanksgiving so they have extra motivation here as well. 

I am playing on GEORGIA TECH (vs Arkansas) as my *10 Personal Favorite @ 2 PM ET - The Yellow Jackets were a perfect 3-0 on the season before enduring an upset loss to East Tennessee State as a 17.5 point favorite on Sunday. Look for Georgia Tech to come up with a big effort after the one point loss last weekend. Arkansas is 2-1 on the season but they lost their only game that was against a respectable foe. That defeat came at the hands of Akron. So, in the one game so far this season that the Razorbacks needed to step up the could not do it. Arkansas lost to the Zips by 8 even though they were a 6 point favorite. The Hogs need to step up today as they face a tough ACC foe but history suggests they will be unable to do so. Arkansas is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against ACC competition. As a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6 points, the Razorbacks are 3-8 ATS. The Hogs are missing Anton Beard as the point guard was expected to be a significant contributor but he's out for the first semester due to a suspension. The Yellow Jackets are shooting better on the young season than Arkansas is. Also, Georgia Tech has been defending the 3-ball much better than the Razorbacks have been early this season. 

I am playing on PHILADELPHIA (@ Detroit) as my *10 Turkey Day ROAST on Thursday @ 12:30 PM ET - Look for QB Mark Sanchez to be much better in his second start for the Eagles. Certainly the first one was ugly as he was a turnover machine in their embarrassing home loss to the Buccaneers Sunday. The Lions are getting a lot of attention from the betting markets leading up to gameday but Detroit is only 3-7 on the season and that is even with back to back wins in their two games since the bye week. Even though the Lions are 'use to' playing on Thanksgiving Day, familiarity hasn't exactly helped them as they are 3-8 ATS in their 11 games on Turkey Day. Overall, the Lions are on a 3-10 ATS run heading into this game. Despite recent disappointment, the Eagles are still very alive in the NFC East race and the Philly defense will be able to focus on the passing attack of the Lions because Detroit possesses the worst rushing attack in the NFL. 

I am playing on Wisconsin (vs Prairie View A & M) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Wednesday @ 8:00 PM ET - As you can tell by the spread on this game, this is a colossal mismatch. However, even with the big number posted on this game, the point spread is not nearly big enough. The Badgers already learned their lesson about underestimating an opponent when they lost to Western Illinois in their season opener two weeks ago. With that said, Wisconsin is certainly not going to overlook Prairie View A & M. The Badgers have gone 3-1 in their last 4 games and will now take advantage of a winless foe that is completely overmatched. Not only are the Panthers from the weak SouthWestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) but they lost a ton of key players from last season's roster. As a result, Prairie View A & M is likely to be among the worst teams in the SWAC. The Panthers two games this season against formidable opposition both resulted in ugly losses. Prairie View A & M lost to Houston and Virginia Commonwealth by an average margin of defeat of 33 points per loss. As a home favorite of 24.5 to 30 points the Badgers have gone 8-4 ATS and they roll big again in this one.

I am playing on ORLANDO (vs New York) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Wednesday @ 7:05 ET - The Knicks have been severely challenged on offense this season and Monday was no exception as they were held to just 78 points at Miami. New York, the last 3 seasons, has a straight-up record of 8-26 when they are off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. In other words, don't look for a bounce back from the Knicks tonight. The Magic come into this game off of back to back losses but they did shoot 49% from the field in their defeat at Cleveland Monday. Look for another hot shooting night here and the Knicks simply won't be able to keep up. The Magic have been favored just 4 times so far this season and their straight-up record in those games is 3-1. With the small spread on this game taking that SU record to 4-1 on the season is very likely to result in an ATS victory as well. The Magic are also 3-1 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Orlando is already 2-0 SU and ATS against Atlantic Division opposition this season and I look for that record to rise to 3-0 here as the Magic take advantage of a Knicks team playing their 4th game in 6 nights.

I am playing on OHIO STATE (vs Louisiana Tech) as my *10 Tuesday Main Event @ 8:00 ET - After starting the season 2-0, the Buckeyes come into this game off of an upset loss as an 18.5 point favorite to UT-Arlington. That defeat has the Buckeyes fired up here and Ohio State will shut down an over-rated Louisiana Tech team today. The Bulldogs have had a lot of success in recent seasons but they lost a number of key players from last season's squad plus Louisiana Tech was forced into a coaching change heading into this season. That leaves the Bulldogs vulnerable to a blowout loss here as Thad Matta's Buckeyes have held each of their first three opponents this season to 37.5% or less from the field. Ohio State is 4-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Also, the Buckeyes are 54-36 ATS in games with a posted total between 140 and 149.5 points. In a higher-scoring game (total on this game is expected in the 140s), the better defense and the team off of an upset loss is the play here.

I am playing on BALL STATE (vs Bowling Green) as my *10 Tuesday BEST BET @ 7 ET - It's been a tough season for Ball State but that doesn't mean the Cardinals won't play with pride and heart in their season finale. This is particularly true because the game is at Ball State. The Cardinals have won 3 straight home finales. They are a huge underdog to the Falcons because Bowling Green has been flying high this season while the Cards have struggled on both sides of the ball. The Falcons are in a 'sandwich spot' here as they are off their huge game against rival Toledo and now have the MAC Title game on deck too. In a spot like this, the points are simply too much. This line is inflated and the Cardinals have gone 13-7 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points. Look for Ball State to 'leave it all on the field' in this one while Bowling Green gets caught looking ahead to the MAC Title game. That will make this game a lot closer than many are expecting.

I am playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (vs East Carolina) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Monday @ 10 PM ET - Even though San Diego State is just 2-2 on the season they have played the much tougher schedule in comparison with 2-1 East Carolina. Also, the Aztecs have played fantastic defense so far as they have held opponents to 35% shooting from the field. The Pirates have been held under 33% from the field in two of their three games so far this season so they could be in trouble here against the tough defense of San Diego State. East Carolina scored just 62 and 61 points, respectively, in those two aforementioned games. The Aztecs come into this game off of an embarrassing loss to Arkansas Little Rock where San Diego State was held to just 43 points in the defeat. The Aztecs previously had scored at least 71 points in all 3 of their games this season. The Pirates struggling offense simply won't be able to keep up here as San Diego State is fired up and ready to roll huge on offense after the rare ugly defeat they were just dealt. The Aztecs are 8-3 ATS in November game the last 3 seasons combined. Blowout bounce back victory for San Diego State here.

I am playing on MIAMI (vs New York) as my *10 Main Event on Monday @ 7:35 ET - Streaks are meant to be broken. The Knicks have surprisingly covered 7 straight games as they head into this match-up at Miami on Monday night. The Heat come into this game having failed to cover 4 straight games. This is what has resulted in this line being much smaller than it should be. The Heat are a small home favorite and are fully capable of a blowout win at home. Miami has a solid 7-2 straight-up record at home this season. The Heat are 6-1 straight-up and ATS the last three seasons against New York. This includes a perfect 3-0 straight-up and ATS mark in the games played in Miami. The Knicks are off of a 107-102 win at Houston and New York has gone 1-3 SU when off of an upset win as an underdog this season. Also, in games after scoring 105 points or more in their prior game, New York has gone 0-3 SU. Look for another SU loss here and with the low number on this game, the Heat stay hot at home while also getting the ATS cover.

I am playing on SEATTLE (vs San Francisco) as my *10 NFL Game of the Week on Sunday @ 4:25 ET - The 49'ers are winless on the road this season and the average margin of defeat in those game has been 22 points! Even though San Francisco is off of their bye week, the Niners are 2-7-1 ATS when playing after a week off. The 49'ers overall have failed to cover 11 of their last 15 games and they're in trouble here as they head to Seattle at absolutely the wrong time. The Niners are facing  Seahawks team that is not in a friendly mood after they blew a 29-25 late lead last week and lost to the Cardinals in Seattle. The Hawks battled back from an early 19-0 deficit in that game but, to end up still coming up short at home, Seattle will be ready to explode with energy with the "12th man" behind them in their noisy home stadium Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks dominated in a 20-3 win at San Francisco earlier this season. The Niners did get a tight win before their bye week (versus Atlanta) but QB Blaine Gabbert did throw two picks in that game. Seattle is the much stronger defense and also is quite superior on offense in comparison with the struggling 49'ers. With that said, the big points here are actually quite manageable as the Seahawks should dominate even more than they did in San Francisco earlier this season. The Niners are 0-3 ATS in divisional games this season. The Seahawks, in games played in the second half of a season, are on a 6-0 ATS in games against teams with a losing record. Seattle takes San Fran behind the woodshed Sunday - a true whipping to atone for their home loss to the Cardinals last week. 

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (vs Kansas City) as my *10 AFC West *GAME OF THE YEAR* on Sunday @ 4:05 ET - Only Tom Brady has thrown for more yardage than Phillip Rivers this season. Look for Rivers and the Chargers to test a mediocre Chiefs pass defense throughout this match-up Sunday afternoon. The problem for Kansas City is their own passing attack on offense is too weak to keep up with high-flying Chargers. The Chiefs also give up too many sacks and they were fortunate in their win over the Broncos last week. Kansas City won despite gaining only 303 yards in the game. Certainly some credit has to go to the Chiefs defense for the 5 INTs in the game but the majority of the reasoning for all the picks was simply Peyton Manning looking like his career may be done! With the Chiefs off of that big upset win at Denver (and it was a revenge win) and with San Diego off of their bye week, this is the perfect spot to back the Chargers. San Diego is ready to bounce back after a much needed bye week followed a tough, late loss at home to the Bears on Monday night two weeks ago. The Chargers get their shot at revenge now as they host a Chiefs team that beat them in both meetings last season. Kansas City was so hungry for that revenging win over Denver last week and the Chiefs are on a 3-9 ATS run when off of a divisional game. The Chargers are on a 4-0 ATS run when off of a Monday Night football game.

I am playing on USC (vs New Mexico) as my *10 Blue Marlin BEST BET on Saturday @ 10:30 PM ET - A match up of undefeated teams Saturday night. The Trojans have the big edge with home court. The Lobos are without Devon Williams (neck) for the rest of the season. Though he was not a huge scorer, he is a key returning player that New Mexico was counting on heading into this season. New Mexico is 3-0 on the young season but their early season schedule has included feasting on some weaker competition like Loyola-IL and Texas Southern. USC is averaging 92 points per game so far this season and will be tough to slow down on their home floor. The Trojans are still a bit of a young team but they've added a lot of talent thanks to some strong recruiting since Andy Enfield took over. USC is 3-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since Enfield took over as head coach. The Lobos entered this season with a 3-7 ATS mark in the past two Novembers. New Mexico is 10-14 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. After holding Loyola-IL to just 51 points, the Lobos will have their hands full with a Trojans offensive attack that has been firing on all cylinders early this season. 

I am playing on BOSTON COLLEGE (vs Notre Dame) as my *10 Non Conf Game of the Year @ 7:30 ET Saturday - This is essentially a home game for Boston College. The game is being played at Fenway Park in Boston. The Eagles are 9-4 ATS in this series with the Fighting Irish. Even though Boston College enters this game having endured a tough season, the Eagles are off of their bye week and they've been gearing up for this game as it's their last chance to make some noise this season. Boston College's season finale is at Syracuse so a win there certainly wouldn't make any big headlines for the Eagles. However, should BC pull off the upset of Notre Dame, everyone in the country would hear about that! Look for Boston College to bring a huge effort for this game. The Eagles defense is arguably the top defense in the nation. Even though the Boston College offense has been a big weakness, the Eagles did net their season high in passing yards in their loss to NC State before the bye week. Notre Dame is off a win by a 3-TD margin against Wake Forest last week. However, the Irish were outgained by the Demon Deacons in that game and yet the scoreboard result is what is leading to an over-inflated line with ND this week. That is why I see such big value here with a top-ranked Boston College defense playing at home and with their last chance to make a statement this season. The Eagles will pull all out all the stops to keep this one close Saturday. Notre Dame is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games not in South Bend. Also, as a double digit favorite, the Fighting Irish have covered just 5 of their last 19 games. 

I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE (vs Baylor) as my *10 CFB Game of the Week @ 7:30 ET Saturday - The Cowboys have dominated this series long-term. Not only has Oklahoma State won 15 of the last 18 meetings between the teams, the Cowboys are also on a 13-3-2 ATS run in the series. The Bears did get the win last season however and the Bears embarrassed Oklahoma State by jumping out to a 42-14 lead in the eventual 49-28 win. That makes this a revenge spot for the Cowboys and it's the perfect set up for Oklahoma State to take advantage of. The last time the teams met north of the Red River, the Cowboys blew out the Bears by a 49-17 final. Oklahoma State, after last year's loss at Baylor, was caught looking ahead to this game a bit as they barely got by Iowa State last week. As for the Bears results last week, they suffered their first loss of the season as they lost to Oklahoma by double digits. That home loss for Baylor could easily result in a case of 'unbeaten letdown' this week as the Bears hopes of going undefeated this season came to an abrupt end. Oklahoma State is 27-13 in their last 40 as a home favorite and the Cowboys certainly watched film on how the Sooners held the Bears to a season low 18 first downs last week. Perfect set up for a huge OSU win this week.

I am playing on LSU (@ Mississippi) as my *10 Main Event @ 3:30 ET Saturday - The Tigers have won 10 of the last 13 meetings between these teams and yet they are getting some points in this year's match-up. That sets up some nice underdog line value for a hungry LSU team. Even though the Tigers are on the road, the home team has covered just 4 times in the last 16 meetings between these schools. Mississippi is off of a bye week and still could be lamenting their loss to Arkansas in overtime in the prior week. After starting the season 4-0, the Rebels have since gone just 3-3. LSU has lost two straight after starting the season with a perfect 7-0 mark. However, the Tigers today will take advantage of an Ole Miss defense that has allowed over 425 yards per game in their last four games. LSU RB Fournette is hungry to bounce back in a big way here (after rare back to back games below 100 yards on the ground) and he'll take advantage of a struggling Rebels defense. Mississippi has lost four of their last six home finales both straight-up and ATS. I am grabbing the points with LSU here but would not be surprised if they get the straight-up win.

I am playing on CALIFORNIA (vs East Carolina) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Friday @ 11 PM ET - Both teams enter this game with a 2-0 mark on the season but that is where the similarities end as there is truly a large disparity between these two programs. California came into this season with a trio of proven veterans and, in the off-season, the Golden Bears added a pair of top recruits. It truly makes them one of the top programs in the PAC-12. I like the fact the coach Cuonzo Martin has this team focused on defense coming into the new season. A trip to Australia in August helped the team gel and the Golden Bears have a solid roster capable of adjusting to playing either big or small. Cal has started off the season on fire offensively and the Bears have won their first two games by an average of 23 points per game. The Pirates also are 2-0 on the season but the fact that East Carolina was held to only 31% from the field in their win over Grambling is certainly concerning. The Pirates two main weaknesses coming into this season were defense inside the 3-point line and the ability to compete for rebounds against bigger foes. I don't see East Carolina as being much improved in either one of those areas and that spells trouble when facing one of the top teams in the country as they are on Thursday night.

I am playing on BOISE STATE (vs Air Force) as my *10 Main Event Friday @ 9:30 ET - Boise State plays this game with true revenge against the Falcons. The Broncos certainly should be well prepared for the option as the past two weeks for Boise State have included a bye week and a game against New Mexico. That's the perfect set up for being prepared to face the Air Force option. That being said, the Broncos did get caught looking ahead to this game as they lost to the Lobos last week even though they were a huge favorite. However, it truly was a strange result on the scoreboard compared to what took place on the field. The Broncos lost 31-24 despite gaining nearly 650 yards in the game. Boise State was simply done in by four turnovers and lost despite outgaining the Lobos by more than 200 yards. Two of the Broncos turnovers last week came in the red zone adding even more fuel to the fire for Boise State this week as they now prepare to face the Falcons team that defeated them by two TDs last year even though Boise State was favored by two TDs. The Broncos were done in by turnovers in last year's game against Air Force. Boise State lost despite an edge of 130- yards in the game. The Falcons are off of a win over Utah State last week but was a home game and Air Force has won 12 straight home games. As an away dog, the Falcons are on a 4-8 ATS run. Boise State is on a 42-25 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Payback time for the Broncos who had won 18 straight games at home before last week's loss to the Lobos.

I am playing on the LA CLIPPERS (vs Golden State) as my *10 MAIN EVENT on Thursday @ 10:35 ET - Of course the 13-0 Golden State Warriors are getting plenty of attention and that means value in going against them in spots like this. The Clippers have won five of their six home games this season and they are well rested here as they have been off since a big home win over Detroit on Saturday. The Clips have won 6 of their last 8 games when they enter a game off of three or more days of rest. Golden State has failed to cover 5 of their last 8 games. The Warriors are 0-2 ATS in their two games against divisional opponent so far this season. The Clippers will take advantage of a Golden State team that has allowed 108.3 points per game in their last 3 games. The Clips have given up 96 points or less in 4 of their 6 home games this season. The Clippers have won just 1 of their last 4 match-ups with Golden State but the 3 losses have come by an average margin of just 5.3 points per game. Look for another tight game here and, therefore, even if the Clippers end up on the wrong end of the scoreboard, they should still end up well within the inflated point spread here. I would not be surprised to see both Chris Paul and JJ Redick back on the floor for this one but this one is a play regardless of their presence. You can this is the game the Clippers have had circled on their calendars!

I am playing on LOYOLA MARYMOUNT (@ Colorado State) as my *10 BEST BET on Thursday @ 9 PM ET - Colorado State opened up their season with an upset win on the road at Northern Iowa where the Rams were a 7.5 point underdog and won outright by a half dozen. The Rams are susceptible to complacency after a big win like that and they may not be fully focused on a Loyola Marymount team that could prove to be a dangerous dog. The Lions are off a disappointing loss at UC-Irvine where Loyola Marymount scored just 53 points. That is precisely the type of ugly game (Lions shot 27.4% from the field) that you will see a team bounce back huge from. The Lions have defended the 3-ball well so far this season and the Rams only shot 30% from beyond the arc in their opening game of the season. This could help keep the Lions well within striking distance throughout this game. Loyola Marymount is a huge dog here and the Lions are facing a Rams team that has gone 2-5 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. In games with a total between 140 and 149.5 points, Colorado State has gone 3-8 ATS. Overall, in home games, the Rams are on an 11-17 ATS run and in non-conference games Colorado State is on a 6-12 ATS run. Off the big road win over the Panthers, the Rams are likely to prove to be a little disinterested tonight against the Lions.

I am playing on TENNESSEE (@ Jacksonville) as my *10 Main Event on Thursday @ 8:25 ET - The Titans are in a nice bounce back spot here. Two weeks ago they responded well under interim head coach Mularkey and got an outright upset win over New Orleans in the Superdome but they followed it up with a poor effort last week. After being held to just 11 first downs and 242 yards in their loss to Carolina last week, look for the Titans to respond with a big effort this week at Jacksonville. The Jaguars are off of an upset win at Baltimore last week. The Jags got the game winning field goal (a 53 yarder!) as time expired as Jacksonville benefited from four Ravens turnovers. The Jaguars allowed nearly 400 yards of offense to the Ravens and Jacksonville also is likely to be emotionally spent after getting a last second win like that on the road. The Jags have gotten the ATS cover in just 7 of their last 27 home games. Keys in looking at this match-up are the situational edge (Tenn off loss, Jax off win), the fact that the Titans have the much better overall defense, and Tennessee has the much better pass rush in comparison with Jacksonville. The Titans are 6-2-1 ATS in Thursday games. The Jaguars are 1-3 ATS this season in games with a line in the range of -3 to +3. 

I am playing on UTAH (vs Toronto) as my *10 Personal Favorite Wednesday @ 9:05 ET - Toronto is in a tough back to back here. The Raptors had to face the Warriors at Golden State last night. Toronto entered that game having lost four of their last six games. Utah will be playing their first home game in over a week and a half and the Jazz also will be boosted by getting a big road win at Atlanta in the last game of their road trip on Sunday. After losing their season opener Utah has covered 7 of their last 9 games. The Raptors have been heading the opposite direction as they've failed to cover four of their last six games. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points the Jazz are on an 8-3 ATS run the past two seasons. The Jazz are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Heading into their game against Golden State last night, Toronto had a 27-40 SU record in their last 67 games as an underdog. With the small points posted on the side in this game, any SU win for the Jazz is likely to equate to an ATS win as well. Utah appears to be in a good spot here and laying the small number with the Jazz looks well worth it. 

I am playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN (@ Northern Illinois) as my *10 BEST BET Wednesday @ 8 ET - This is a battle for first place in the MAC West division and the Broncos certainly have revenge on their minds. Western Michigan has lost each of the last six meetings between the schools. This looks like the year the Broncos can put an end to that streak. The set up is perfect as Northern Illinois is off of a road win at Buffalo while Western Michigan is off of a home loss to Bowling Green. The Falcons offense has been insanely good this season so there is not a lot of shame in that Broncos loss and it certainly has them fired up for this next game. The Huskies win over the Bulls is masking the fact that they do have a concern with the QB position. Northern Illinois was able to get by a mediocre Buffalo team but they are hurting with QB Hare out for the year. His replacement, Graham, is a redshirt freshman. You can bet the Broncos defense is licking their chops when they think about taking advantage of this significant step down in experience level for the Huskies QB position. Look for this to be a key variable in this game as the Broncos bounce back from their first MAC loss of the season. Western Michigan has covered 10 of their last 13 games as a road dog.

I am playing on WISCONSIN (vs North Dakota) as my *10 Blue Marlin Tuesday @ 8 PM ET - The Badgers lost their season opener outright as a 25 point favorite. Wisconsin responded by exploding for a huge win over Siena by 27 points on Sunday. After that win, the last thing the Badgers want to do is lose momentum as they have a date with Georgetown coming up on Friday. That means a repeat of the same huge effort that Wisconsin gave against Siena can be expected here. The Badgers held Siena under 40% from the field while shooting nearly 60% from the field themselves. North Dakota played an outclassed foe (MN-Morris) in their first game this season and now take a huge step up in class as they face the Badgers. That is tough to do early in the season and the talent gap here is simply far too much. North Dakota lost six of their top eight scorers from last season's team and that will make early season contests against stellar teams like Wisconsin quite problematic for a team lacking in experience on the floor. Look for North Dakota to get pummeled here. 

I am playing on HOUSTON (@ Cincinnati) as my *10 Main Event on Monday @ 8:30 ET - Even though the Texans have a losing record this season they have been very competitive and actually have outgained their opponents overall on the year. In this match-up Houston is a big underdog and this line appears to be inflated. Houston knows they come into this game with a chance to tie the idle Colts (bye week this week) at the top of the AFC South standings. The Bengals have a ridiculous 7-0-1 ATS mark after their big win over the Browns last week. Truly the big difference between these teams this season has been turnovers. Statistically the Texans and Bengals aren't that different. The Texans have been strong against the pass this season and their aerial attack on offense has produced very well. The key is for Houston to cut down on their turnovers. The Texans have done that and they've now won 2 of their last 3 games. Even though the Bengals are off of a Thursday night game (allowing for some extra rest) the Texans benefit even more here from being off of their bye week. In 8 games this season Houston has only lost two games by more than 7 points. For the Bengals, only 3 of their last 7 games have been won by more than 6 points. The points are simply too big here. Look for a competitive game all the way through. Texans confidence boosted by the big win over Tennessee before their bye week. Held the Titans to just 6 points. It will be tough for the Bengals to create much separation in this Monday night match-up. 

I am playing on MEMPHIS (vs Oklahoma City) as a *10 BEST BET Monday @ 8:05 ET - Memphis got the win at Minnesota yesterday and they've put their recent struggles in the rear view mirror by posting back to back victories in their last two games. Now the Grizzlies are back home where they've won 2 of their last 3 and their only loss in that 3 game stretch was to Golden State. The Grizzlies got their offense back on track yesterday with 114 points and ridiculously hot shooting. Memphis also was draining the 3-ball against the Timberwolves and this confidence boost on the offensive end for the Grizzlies is perfect timing as they now travel home to face a tough Oklahoma City club. The Thunder also are in a back to back spot here as OKC hosted Boston yesterday and lost 100-85. Kevin Durant's hamstring injury is a major concern for the Thunder and I look for the Grizzlies to take advantage. Oklahoma City wasn't even playing that well when Durant was healthy. In fact, yesterday's embarrassing home loss to the Celtics was their 4th loss in their last 7 games. The hot shooting of Memphis yesterday and the stone cold shooting of the Thunder yesterday is a sign of what is to come today. Memphis should win this one in a rout. 

I am playing on SEATTLE (vs Arizona) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 8:30 ET - Big revenge game for Seattle after losing at Arizona earlier this season. Now the Seahawks get the Cardinals in their house where "the 12th man" often is a factor in the loudest venue in the NFL. Both teams are off of their bye week and Marshawn Lynch, recovering from his abdominal injury, is listed as probable for this one. The bruising running back will be utilized to wear down the Cardinals defense and chew up clock in this one as the Hawks look to keep the highly ranked Cards offense off of the field as much as possible. The Cardinals are particularly strong with their aerial attack this season but the Hawks strength on defense is against the pass. Overall, the Seahawks have given up just 12 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 21 points per game in their last five games. The way the Seahawks play at home, so tough on defense, I look for the strength of the Hawks defense over the Cardinals defense to be a huge key here. The Cards defense is solid but not on the same level as the Seahawks and this is particularly key when the game is being played at Seattle. Seattle had won (and covered) 3 straight games against the Cardinals before the loss at Arizona early this season. Sunday it is payback time.