Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on SIENA. The Golden Griffins are likely going to be a popular play here. After all, they lost by just one at Siena earlier and they've had success against the Saints at this venue. That said, I personally believe the Saints are the stronger team and I expect them to demonstrate that fact this evening. Siena lost by 12 at Manhattan last time out, a game they were trailing by 17 at halftime. Thats noteworthy as the Saints are a perfect 5-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, after trailing by 15 or more at halftime of their previous game. The Saints are scoring 72.9 ppg overall this season and 71 ppg in conference action. The Golden Griffins, on the other hand, are averaging just 63.6 ppg in conference play, connecting on 40.1 % of their field goals. Opposing conf. teams are hitting 46.4% of theirs. Look for Siena's superior offense to prove the difference, as the Saints break out the broom and sweep the season series. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Beavers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, the Huskies are going to be in an angry mood. Note that both losses came on the road. The last time that the Huskies lost two in a row? Laying -4 points, they bounced back and crushed USC by a 72-40 score. Including that result, they're 5-1 (4-1 ATS) the past six times that they were off b2b losses. While they did upset Arizona last time out, the Beavers have dropped two of their last three on the road. They're just 7-14 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Going back further reveals that they're also 7-14 ATS when off a double-digit win as an underdog. The Huskies took both meetings last season. Look for them to bounce back and improve to 15-5 their last 20 games in January, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Nets are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, the 76ers are going to be in an angry mood. Not that they need any but additional motivation but the 76ers also haven't forgotten that the Nets beat them by 20 points, back in mid-December. The last time that these teams met here, the 76ers were favored by -9.5 points and won by 22. The Nets' previous visit here also resulted in a 22-point Philly win. While both those were playoff games, I expect another double-digit win for the 76ers here. Not only do they have the venue in their favor but they've got the schedule working for them. Whie the 76ers had yesterday off, the Nets are playing their second game in two days and their third in the past four. Payback time. 

I'm playing on GEORGETOWN. Creighton checks in with the higher ranking but I believe that Georgetown opened as the slight favorite for good reason. Having lost three of their last four, the Hoyas are going to be highly motivated. Note that all three of those losses came on the road. Also, note that they're 9-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, after having dropped three of their previous four. While Creighton gets outscored by a 71.6 to 64.4 margin on the road, Georgetown is outscoring teams by a 82.4 to 70.6 average score here at home. Creighton may have scored the minor upset at Xavier but it is still just 8-15 ATS the past couple of seasons, as a road underdog or pick'em. During that span, the Bluejays are also only 4-8 ATS when off a double-digit conference win. The Bluejays have had their way in this series of late but that changes Wednesday. Look for the hungry Hoyas to get some payback. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Mavs hammered the Warriors a couple of times back in November and December. I expect a much better effort from the defending Western Conf. champs tonight though. Porzingis practiced yesterday. However, in addition to his knee, he isn't feeling well with an illness. With the Mavs also playing tomorrow night, my hunch is that he won't go tonight. Either way, I expect the Warriors to be ready. The Warriors are 14-7 ATS when attempting to avenge a game where the opponent scored 100 or more. They're 8-3 ATS when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss. They're also 5-1 ATS when playing with double-revenge. While the Mavs play again tomorrow, the Warriors have tomorrow off. Expect them to leave it all on the floor, en route to AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers beat the Hornets by double-digits in both last season's meetings. The game here at Portland resulted in a 127-96 blowout, the Blazers taking a 70-49 lead into the break. Schedule in their favor, I expect another blowout tonight. While the Blazers are rested, the Hornets are playing their second game in the past two days and third in the past four. The Blazers are 3-1-1 ATS (5-0 SU) as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on GREEN BAY. I have a lot of respect for Russell Wilson. Pete Carroll, too. However, I expect their season to come to an end on Sunday. The Hawks lost a heartbreaker vs the 49ers two weeks ago, a game that came down to the final play. Last week, they left in all on the field, at Philly. Playing back-to-back road games can be tough. While they were giving it everything they had, the Pack were resting. That extra rest, combined with homefield advantage, will prove the difference here. The Pack were 7-1 at home (5-0 L5) this season and six of those seven wins, including each of the past four, came by more than four points. The Hawks defense came up big last week, holding the Eagles (minus Carson Wentz for most of it) to nine points. They're only 4-8 ATS the past dozen times that they allowed 14 or fewer points in their previous game though. The Pack are 9-4 ATS (12-1 SU) the past 13 times that they were home favorites of seven or less. Expect them to improve on those stats Sunday. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Off three straight losses and playing with "double-revenge," I expect the Hawks to be a highly motivated team today. Note that they lost by 10 last time but that all five of their previous games (2 W, 3 L) were decided by single-digits. Also, note that they're 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were off an upset loss, by double-digits, in a game where they were favored. The Nets are only 7-12 ATS as favroites overall, 4-8 ATS as home favorites. They're also only 2-8 ATS after scoring 115 or more in their previous game. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Bucks won big last night but I expect them to face a much tougher task here. Though I certainly won't count on it, with this being the second of b2b games, its possible that Giannis won't play, as he's been dealing with a back issue. Either way, I expect the rested Blazers to be ready for a big game. While the role hasn't been kind to them of late, the Blazers are still a healthy 9-5-2 ATS the past 16 times that they were listed as home underdogs. That includes a 118-103 victory over the Bucks here last season. During that span, the Blazers are also a perfect 10-0 SU (7-3 ATS) when off a double-digit loss against a division opponent. Grab the points but don't be surprised when Portland steps up and wins this one outright. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Pelicans are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. While Boston had last night off, New Orleans beat the Knicks, at MSG. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Pelicans will be playing their third game in the past four days. In fact, this marks their sixth game in the past nine days. That schedule will catch up to them against a very hungry Boston team tonight. The Celtics are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS when off a division loss. Over the past couple of seasons, they're a profitable 14-5 ATS after having failed to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. They beat the Pelicans by double-digits in both last season's meetings and I fully expect for them to do so again this evening. Boston rolls. 

I'm playing on NY. I like how this one sets up for the Knicks. Off a winless road trip, they're going to be hungry. They had yesterday off and they also have tomorrow off. Thats not the case for the Pelicans, as they have a big game at Boston tomorrow. Off some recent wins, they may not be as hungry as their hosts, either. The home team won both games last season. Tonight, the Pelicans will be without Jrue Holiday. I'll take the points but I like NY to score the upset. 

I'm playing on SIENA. The Saints have been winning and playing well. Just not covering. I expect that to change tonight. Last time out, the Saints lost at Rider. However, they'd won their previous four. One of those games even got featured on SportsCenter's "Bad Beats," as the final meaningless Holy Cross basket came in the final seconds causing the Saints to win by 12, as 13-point favorites. Those recent ATS losses have worked in our favor though, in terms of line value, as the Saints could easily be laying double-digits for this matchup. Homecourt has meant a lot in this series in recent seasons; Siena has beaten St. Peter's four straight times here at Times Union Center. In last year's meeting here, the Saints were laying -7 and won by 10. Overall, the Saints have won their last six home games, outscoring teams by an average of 79.5 to 70.3. Led by their trio of seiniors (Jalen Pickett, Manny Camper and Elijah Burns) look for the Saints to continue their homecourt dominance of the Peacocks, this time, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. Both these teams are seeking their first conference win. The Rams may be the favorite but I firmly believe that the Wildcats are the superior team. Keep in mind that Davidson essentially returned everyone from last year's team. That same team handled Rhode Island with relative ease. The Wildcats beat the Rams by 15, at Davidson. Then, they beat them by nine, here at Rhode Island. Yes, Davidson has dealt with some injury issues but it has also played an extremely tough schedule. Off b2b losses, like their hosts, the Cats are going to be highly motivated. Note that Davidson is perfect (2-0 SU/ATS) the past couple of seasons, when coming off b2b road losses. Over the years, Davidson is a dominant 46-16 SU when off a conference road loss. As for the Rams, they're just 2-6 ATS in the favorite role this season. They were favored in each of their last two games and lost both outright. While I'm happy to grab the points, I expect an outright win for the visitors. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. This will be the fourth meeting between these teams already this season. On 10/23, I was on the Suns (Oct. GOM) when they hammered the Kings here. I successfully backed Sacramento in the next meeting, a 4-point win on 11/19. I didn't play the most recent game but it was also very close, a 2-point Phoenix win on 12/28. So, thats back-to-back meetings which have been decided by four or less. With the Kings looking to avenge that loss, I expect another close one tonight. Yes, the Kings played last night. Thats worked in our favor though, as we're getting a little extra line value because of it. Last night's game wasn't exactly taxing though as the Kings won big. (By the end of the third, they were up by 26.) The last time that the Kings played the second of b2b games, they covered at Denver, losing by five. The time before that? A 4-point loss. Before that? An outright win at Houston by a point! So, one can see that they haven't exactly been bothered by playing two games in two days. Expect them to give their hosts all they can handle here, improving to 6-1 ATS when attempting to avenge a same season loss.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While they've been on a nice roll, tonight, the Thunder are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After dropping all four games on their road trip, the 76ers return home in a very angry mood. The fact that the Thunder beat them at OKC earlier (and upset the 76ers here last year) will only intensify that anger. While they've had their issues on the road, the 76ers are a dominant 16-2 here at home. Opposing teams score a mere 101.5 ppg here. Meanwhile, the Thunder score only 103.8 ppg on the road. While OKC hits 44.4% of its fg's on the road, the 76ers hit 47.6% of theirs, here at home. Expect the "hungrier" team to win this one by double-digits. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. The Eagles went on a nice run to get here. However, the fact is that they're still a 9-7 team which got four of its wins against the Giants and Redskins, a pair of teams with a combined 7-25 record. While their known for having a strong homefield advantage, the Seahawks have been excellent on the road. They know they can win here, too. In fact, they did so back in October. Including that 17-9 victory, the Hawks are a dominant 10-1 SU and 8-1-2 ATS the past 11 times that they played a road game with an O/U line ranging from 45.5 to 49. They're also 6-1 ATS their last seven against teams from the NFC East and 8-1 SU their last nine as a road favorite. Off the tough loss to SF in their reg. season finale, note that the Hawks are 5-1-2 ATS (6-2 SU) the past eight time that they were off a home loss. Expect Wilson to lead them to another victory on Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on VCU. The Rams have had a tough run at the betting window, which has worked in our favor by keeping the line reasonably low. They've now failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games, a streak dating back to 11/25. I successfully played on them in the lone ATS win though (while avoiding them in all 8 losses) and I feel that this will be another strong spot to back them. If you looked at those games, you'd see that they were extremely close to covering in the majority of them. Last time out, the Rams won by 18 while laying 19. Previously, some of the other ATS losses included: laying -5.5, they won by five. Laying -11,5, they won by 10. Laying -13.5, they won by 12. They were 2-point underdogs (facing Purdue and Tennessee) in each of the two games before those three. Both resulted in 3-point losses. This afternoon's number is relatively small though. This is a George Mason team that the Rams beat by 16 and 35 points last season. Expect another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. While its been a tough start at the betting window, I believe that a date vs. the instate rival Hokies will bring out the best in the Cavaliers. The last time that these teams met here, the Cavs were laying -7.5 points. They were already up 44-22 by the break and won by a score of 82-59. While the Hokies allowed a mere 37 points last time out, that was against lowly MD-East Shore. Note that they're just 2-7 ATS the past nine times that they allowed 50 or fewer points in their previous game, 0-2 ATS already this season. The Cavs were a dominant 16-1 SU and 14-3 ATS the past two Januarys. Expect them to improve on those stats as they start the new year with another win and cover. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I believe that we can expect the Cougars to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. Thats because they haven't forgotten that the Knights came in here last season, when Houston had a 27-1 record (best in the nation) and the longest home winning streak in the country, and upset the Cougars. Some called it the biggest win in UCF history. The Knights were helped considerbly by a double-double from Tacko Fall in that game. As you probably know, he's since moved on. Off b2b losses, the Knights just lost by 16 against Temple. Houston, on the other hand, is rolling. The Cougars are 4-0 SU/ATS  their past four. Three of those were on the road; the lone home game saw them win by 20 as an -11.5 point favorite. Motivated by last year's loss, expect the Cougars to keep on rolling for another day, pulling away for a one-sided blowout win. 

FRIDAY 10* CFB MAIN EVENT (71% IN 2020) **OHIO/NEVADA**

While he came up short with the total in the Birmingham Bowl, Ben Burns already has a 5-2 (+$2,810) record with his top rated selections in 2020. He's putting that 71.43% RECORD on the line for this afternoon's Idaho Potato Bowl. Don't miss it!

I'm playing on OHIO. Nevada has the better record and played in the tougher conference. Yet, Ohio is favored. What gives? Indeed, a lot of people are likely going to be quick to grab the points, based on the records/conferences alone. However, in my opinion, the Bobcats are favored for good reason. In fact, I expect them to win this one by double-digits. Here are a few of the reasons why. The Bobcats outscored teams by 92 points this season. Nevada, on the other hand, was outscored by 129 points. The Bobcats could have easily had a better record, as they lost four games by a field goal or less. The Bobcats have a big edge on offense. In addition to their experienced coach, they've got an excellent senior QB, working behind a solid offensive line and complemented by a pair of capable backs. They'll be working against a depleted Nevada defense which has a few interim head coaches, after Casteel got fired and which is dealing with multiple suspensions. Ultimately, I believe the Bobcats will put up a big number and I don't expect Nevada to be able to keep up.

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The Kings are desperate for a win and the Grizzlies represent the perfect opponent. The Grizzlies used to be known for their defense but thats no longer they case. They're allowing 116.2 ppg this season. The Kings are considerably more stingy. They allow 108.3 ppg. Here at home, that number dips to just 106. While they lost earlier at Memphis, the Kings beat the Grizzlies both times, here at Sacramento, last season. Yes, the Grizzlies won their last game. However, that was at home, against Charlotte. Note that they're 2-4 ATS off a home win. The Kings are 4-1 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier (same season) loss. Losers of eight straight, over the years, they've gone 10-4-1 ATS after losing their previous eight. Expect them to play with desperation, bouncing back with a badly needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Ducks are indeed a very strong team and they've been playing well. However, in my opinion, the same can be said of the Buffaloes. They've won four straight and covered the last two of those. Last time out, they tied a school record with 17 3-pointers. Seven players scored in double-digits, the first time thats happened in more than five years. Also, the Buffs dished out 26 assists, their most in years. Keep in mind that Colorado returned nearly everyone from last year's team. The same group, essentially, which beat the Ducks (again) here last season. The Buffs allow 58.9 ppg at home while the Ducks allow 71.5 ppg on the road.  Playing in the thin air (altitude) gives the Buffaloes a big advantage. Note that Oregon has never won here at Boulder and that the Ducks will face the Utes on the road, on Saturday. That Colorado/Utah road trip is always tough, generally considered to be the most difficult in the conference. The Buffs are looking for respect and a win here will get it. Look for them to find their way into the top 25 after scoring the minor upset here. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. Yes, the Bulldogs just got hammered by LSU. However, in case you haven't heard, the Tigers are extremely strong this season. So, there's not much shame in getting blown out by them. After thumping the Bulldogs, LSU went on to smash the Sooners. Yes, the same Sooners who beat Baylor, twice. Georgia still outscores teams by a dominating 33.5 to 12.1 margin. Only Clemson (11.5) allows fewer points per game. Baylor allows 19.3 ppg. While Georgia allows 273.4 ypg, the Bears allow 358.9. While Baylor is 1-4 ATS its last five off a bye, the Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS their last six off a bye. Expect their superior defense to prove the difference, the Bulldogs pulling away for a double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I expect homecourt to prove the difference in this one. The Bearcats come in rested and hungry. They're 2-1 ATS (3-0 SU) the past couple of seasons, when playing with seven or more day's rest in between games. The Huskies are just 3-6 ATS the past couple of seasons as road underdogs of six or fewer points and that includes a 1-8 SU record. While UConn has won three straight, those games came against the likes of St. Peters, New Hampshire and NJ Tech. Its also worth noting that the Huskies are just 1-5 SU/ATS the past six times that they'd won their previous three. Expect the Bearcats to take this one, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S. These teams split a pair of meetings last season. Favored by 4.5 points, the Bullogs won by nine, on their home floor. The Red Storm returned the favor with a 4-point home win, as a 4-point favorite. Tonight, however, the Red Storm are getting points, rather than laying them. While I respect Butler, I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that St. John's knocked off Arizona, on the road, last time out. (An outright win as a double-digit underdog.) This is a team which is playing its best and which hasn't lost in weeks. The Bulldogs are 1-3 ATS the past four times that they were road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. During the same span, the Red Storm were 3-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. They're 2-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a upset win, as a double-digit underdog. Expect AT LEAST another cover this evening. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Hornets have been tough at home recently. Playing with double-revenge, I expect their best effort on New Year's Eve. Since the Celtics' last visit, on 11/9, the Hornets have played 13 home games. While the Hornets only won five of those 13 games, they were very competitive in nearly every one of them. In fact, only one of those 13 home games resulted in a loss of greater than seven points. The Hornets are 5-2 ATS after having failed to cover in two or more consec. games and 1-0 ATS after having failed to cover their previous three. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Suns are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off three straight losses and with their next five on the road, the Blazers know they absolutely need to take care of business here. The Suns eked out a road win last time out. However, they're still 6-8 away from Phoenix and they're also 1-5 SU/ATS the past six times that they were off a road win of three or fewer points. The Blazers have beaten the Suns 11 straight times. They've beaten the Suns six straight times here at Portland, the past five of those all coming by a minimum of seven points. A closer look at those past five meetings here at Portland finds that the Blazers were laying double-digits for all five games. We're being asked to lay a much lower line here and I feel thats providing excellent value. Expect the Blazers to continue their dominance in the series, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. I've fared very well in picking my spots with the Wildcats and I feel that this is another team that they match up very well against. Vanderbilt was 9-23 last season, 0-18 within its conference. The Commodores entered this season with just 10 eligible scholarship players. One of them, senior forward Clevon Brown, is out. Another (Obinna) is questionable. The Wildcats, who are playing their best basketball of the season with three consecutive SU/ATS wins, are 5-1 SU/ATS the past six times that they were a road favorite (or pick'em) of three or less. Davidson is a perfect 10-0 SU the past 10 times that it had scored 25 or less in the first half of its previous game. Expect a road win. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. Needless to say, this is a huge game for both teams. Playing at home, I expect the battle-tested Seahawks to have the advantage. While the 49ers have enjoyed a great season, this is still relatively new territory to them. The Hawks and their rabid fans have been here before. Many times. Russell Wilson is starting to get some credit as being one of the best QBs but he's still under-rated, in my opinion. The signing of Lynch is only going to get the crowd going that much more. Beast Mode is back and the veteran's explosive personality should provide a boost for the entire team. The Hawks are 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were getting points. They're also a perfect 5-0 SU (3-0-2 ATS) the past five times that they were off a division loss. While I like Seattle to win outright, with the last two meetings both decided by a field goal, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on VCU. The Rams have had a tough run at the betting window. They've now failed to cover the spread in seven straight games, a streak dating back to 11/25. If you looked at those games, however, you'd see that they were extremely close to covering in the majority of them. Last time out, the Rams lost by 10, as 5-point underdogs against Wichita State. That should have them in an angry mood here. Prior to that, laying -5.5, they won by five. Laying -11,5, they won by 10. Laying -13.5, they won by 12. They were 2-point underdogs (facing Purdue and Tennessee) in each of the two games before those three. Both resulted in 3-point losses. Enough is enough. The Rams are stepping down in class here and they're going to be ready to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. The Greyhounds have been on a nice roll but they haven't faced a defense like this one; the Rams force opposing teams to commit turnovers on 27.7% of their plays. Thats fourth best in the country. Expect a determined effort to lead to a blowout. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE. I successfully played against the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship. They were facing a revenge-minded Wisconsin team which had a bigtime back and which was coming in full of confidence. The Buckeyes took the Badgers' best punch but stormed back to still win by 13. To most, Clemson's 62-17 win over Virginia was probably more impressive. However, I'd also backed the Cavs in their previous game, a 39-30 win over archrival V-Tech. The Cavs. not nearly as strong as Wisconsin in the first place, were still celebrating snapping their skid against the Hokies and never really believed they would beat Clemson. I guess what I'm trying to say is that I was not more impressed with Clemson's win than I was with Ohio State's win. Really, I believe the closer win and the fact that they were tested will serve the Buckeyes better than Clemson winning in another blowout. Overall, the Buckeyes' schedule was arguably much tougher too, not just that final game. Thats going to serve them well here as they've faced plenty of quality teams while Clemson hasn't really done so. Over the years, Clemson is 30-31 ATS when playing a line with a game in the +3 to -3 range. During the same span, the Buckeyes were 30-16-2 ATS when playing a game with a line in that range. During that span, they were also 31-19 ATS when getting points. While I respect the Tigers, I believe the wrong team is favored. Ohio State gets it done. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks have already played the Bucks tough in both meetings. Milwaukee won each game by single digits. Playing at home and with double-revenge, I expect the Hawks to give the Bucks all they can handle once again. I'm well aware that the Bucks, who lost on Christmas Day, have fared well when coming off a loss. Thats not always the case though and a Christmas Day game is unique. Did you know that Milwaukee is 0-5 ATS the past five times that it was off a game where it was trailing by 20 or more at halftime? This is also arguably the "lowest profile" game/team that the Bucks will have played in a bit. With a game tomorrow, I feel they make lack their usual intensity here. While the Hawks also play tomorrow, they didn't play on Christmas and come in well-rested. They're already 2-0 SU/ATS when playing with three or more day's rest and they're 7-2 ATS their last nine in that situation. Expect the Hawks to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. This line has come down and I feel thats providing excellent value with the favorite. The Aggies have taken on the likes of Alabama, Auburn and Clemson. You may recall they very nearly beat both "Tiger" teams, losing by four to Auburn and just two against Clemson. The Cowboys aren't in the same class. Despite taking on some of the best teams in the country, the Aggies still allow an average of just 22.7 ppg. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, allows 27. While there will be a lot of talk about having their running back (Chuba Hubbard) healthy, its important to note that the Cowboys will be without their star safety (Kolby Harvell-Peel). Texas A@M already had the better defense and his absence makes the Cowboys' unit that much weaker. Meanwhile, the Cowboys other starting safety will have to sit for the first half due to targeting in the OU game. It all adds up to a win and cover for the Aggies. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Pistons 7-10 record at home isn't very good. However, its considerably better than Washington's 5-13 mark on the road. Here, the Pistons play with "double-revenge" from a pair of earlier losses. They certainly haven't forgotten that the Wizards hammered them here 10 days ago. Its important to note that the Wizards got 40 points in that game (23 and 17) from Thomas and Bertans and that neither of those players will be available for this one. The Pistons, meanwhile, played without Griffin and Drummond. Its going to be an entirely different game today. The Pistons are going to be desperate. They know they need to snap their skid today, as their next six games come on the road. Expect them to do exactly that, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Pelicans are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Nuggets are one of the top teams in the West and this is their chance to show that to the world. I won with them when they hammered the Lakers the other day and then successfully played against them when they won but failed to cover, at Phoenix. They're back home now though and rested. Instead of facing a revenge-minded team (Suns) its the Nuggets who play with revenge, as the Pelicans beat them earlier. Note that that Nuggets are 9-4-1 ATS (11-3 SU) the past couple of seasons, when attempting to avenge a road loss where they were the favorite. The Pelicans may have won at Portland. However, they're at the end of a trip and they're still just 5-9-2 ATS on the road. They're also 0-4 SU/ATS when off an upset win as a road underdog. Lay the points and expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. While I won with the Nuggets last night, this one favors the Suns. While the Nuggets are playing their third game in four days, the Suns are rested. Even though they've cooled off, they're still within striking distance of the playoffs, something which hasn't been the case at Christmas time in recent years. Playing with double-revenge, they're badly going to want this one. The Nuggets, 2-4 ATS off a road win and 0-3 ATS when playing the second of b2b games, could easily be thinking about their Christmas Day game and/or last night's win at LA. Both this season's meetings were at Denver and the Suns lost one of those by only a point. The last time they hosted the Nuggets (last season) they won outright as nine-point dogs. Playing at home, schedule in their favor, expect them to give the Nuggets all they can handle once again with an excellent shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Both teams are off impressive wins last week. Playing at home, playing with revenge from the earlier loss at Lambeau, I believe it'll be the Vikings which follow it up with a victory here. While the Packers have actually been outscored by an average of 21.2 to 20.8 on the road, the Vikings are outscoring teams by an average of 27.7 to 14.2 here at Minnesota. Big difference. The Packers have been outgained by an average of 378.3 to 271, in terms of yards per game, when playing on the road. Perfect at home, the Vikes have outgained visiting teams by a 368.3 to 341.7 margin. Again, a big difference. Last year's game at Lambeau was 29-29 but the Vikings won 24-17 when playing here at home. The previous season, they won 23-10 here. The Pack are 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. The Vikes are 9-3 ATS their last 12 as home favorites of seven or less. I believe homefield will again prove significant and I'm laying the relatively small number. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. The Bulldogs just earned a hard-fought double-OT win over a tough SMU team. Had they lost that game, I wouldn't like them in this one. However, having pulled it out, I believe it'll prove to be the type of victory that they can build momentum from. Now, they step down in class, against an instate "rival," and I believe they're ready to deliver a blowout. In addition to SMU, Georgia has faced the likes of Michigan State, Dayton and Ariizona State. The Eagles, who lose Tookie Brown from last year, have faced Auburn and Bradley, as their toughest opponents. They lost those two games by 39 combined points. Even North Dakota beat them by a dozen. Even after failing to cover against the Mustangs, the Bulldogs are a healthy 10-4 ATS in December games the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion here. 

I'm playing on DENVER. I believe that the Nuggets are visiting at the right time. LA is off four consecutive ATS losses, losing the last two of those outright. This is the Lakers' first game back from an Eastern trip and they could easily be already thinking about their Christmas Day showdown vs. Kawhi and co. As for the Nuggets, since going through a bit of a tough stretch, they're a perfect 5-0 their last five games. That tough stretch included a home loss vs. these same Lakers, a game Denver was favored in. Look for the revenge-minded Nuggets to continue their strong recent play, earning AT LEAST the cover and improving to 22-12-1 ATS the past 35 times that they attempted to avenge a SU loss from a game in which they were favored. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bears lost at Lambeau last week while the Chiefs continued their dominance of Denver. Those results have helped in providing us with strong value with Chicago. Indeed, the Bears have thrived in the home underdog role. They're 7-1 ATS their last eight, when getting points at home, 2-0 SU/ATS this season. Last time they were underdogs here, they beat Dallas outright. Playing their home finale, naturally, they're going to be fired up. I believe they're going to have success moving the ball against the Chiefs' defense and I expect AT LEAST another cover on Sunday night. 

I'm playing on LA. Both these teams have disappointed. While the Raiders actually have the better record, I believe the set up favors the Chargers. Rivers and co. still have plenty of pride. Playing their home finale and also playing with revenge from last month's 26-24 loss at Oakland, they're going to be highly motivated for this one. As for the Raiders, they played their final game at Oakland last week. That wasn't even enough to really motivate them, as stumbling Jacksonville handed the Raiders their fourth straight setback. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined score of 136-49 in those four losses. Ugly. The Chargers are 3-1 ATS the past four times that they attempted to avenge an earlier 'upset' loss. Going back further finds them at 25-13 ATS in that situation. Laying -6 points, the Chargers beat the Raiders 27-10 here last season. Expect another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs have played the Clippers tough in both this season's meetings. The game at LA resulted in a 6-point win for the Clippers, back on Halloween. A month later, for a game here at San Antonio on 11/29, the Spurs won outright, as 5-point underdogs, a 107-97 "upset" win. While I like their chances of another upset here, I'm also happy to grab the generous points. The Spurs just gave the Rockets all they could handle, losing by only two at Houston. Next, in their most recent game, they hammered the Nets by 13. The Spurs had yesterday off and they also have tomorrow off. This is their final home game before Christmas and they're going to want to make the most of it. On the other hand, the Clippers lost last time out. They also lost their last road game, getting upset by the Bulls, at Chicago. Unlike the Spurs, the Clippers play tomorrow. Additionally, they've got the big Christmas Day showdown coming up against Lebron and the Lakers. While the Spurs are 13-5 ATS the past couple of seasons as home underdogs of six or less, the Clippers are 5-12 ATS when off an upset loss as a home favorite. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on LA. Two weeks ago, I won with the Rams when they beat up on Seattle. Last week, I successfully played against the Rams, when they got hammered by Dallas. I'm coming right back with them here though. The 49ers also lost. However, they're loss may well take more of a toll on them this week, than LA's loss, due to the nature of it. The Falcons scored 12 points in the final two seconds to stun the 49ers. SF is just 5-10-1 ATS as a favorites the past 2+ seasons, 3-7-1 ATS as a home favorite. During the same span, the Rams are 4-1 ATS as road underdogs. They're playing with 'revenge' from a 20-7 loss at LA and they're 8-4-1 ATS (10-3 SU) in the revenge role the past 2+ seasons, 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) when revenging a loss from a game in which they were favored. Grab the points but don't be surprised when LA wins outright. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. I won with the Blazers last time out. Here's an excerpt of what I said at the time: "....They may be last in their division. However, they're still 11-16 and only one good run from getting themselves back in contention. That said, this is a stretch that they need to take advantage of. Last time out, the Blazers eked out a 1-point win over the Suns. Thats the type of victory a team can build positive momentum from. Now, in a 4-game stretch before Christmas, the Blazers get home games against the Warriors, Magic, T-Wolves and Pelicans. Those are all very winnable games, tonight's being the "easiest" on paper. I believe that they're ready to tip off that stretch by blowing someone out of the building..." Golden State actually played well but the Blazers still grinded out the double-digit win. Now, they're laying a much smaller number against another team they can handle. Once again, I believe that they'll take of business in this very "winnable" game. Anthony has settled into his role as the third option and this is a team ready to go on (at least) a mini run. The Magic have been competitive but have still dropped five of their last six. At the end of a trip, they're already looking forward to getting home in time for last minute Christmas shopping. Consider that the Blazers were laying -10 points when they hosted Orlando last season. Not enough has changed to warrant such a big line swing. The Blazers are 16-5 SU and 14-6-1 ATS against Southeast teams the past couple of seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Mavs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, including their first at home (now 14-1) the 76ers are going to be angry. The last time that they had lost b2b games, they snapped the skid right there with a 19-point win. The Mavs managed the upset at Milwaukee without Doncic. However, they lost against Boston last time out and his absence will be noticed again here. Talk about a tough stretch: the Bucks, the Celtics, the 76ers and up next the Mavs will face the defending world champs. Facing a highly motivated Philly team, it all catches up to the Mavs here. 76ers are 26-18-1 ATS (36-9 SU) as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range the past 2+ seasons and they improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on UTAH State. While the Golden Flashes went on a nice run to get here, I believe that there's a class difference between these teams. The Aggies arguably underachieved this season but this is there chance to show everyone they're better than what we saw from them in the reg. season. They played in the tougher conference and their more difficult schedule will serve them well here. Despite the more difficult conference, the Aggies scored more points and compiled more yards, while allowing fewer points and fewer yards. Kent State was fortunate in the turnover department but thats not something that can be relied on consistently. With an O/U line in the mid-high 60s, this should be a high-scoring game. That suits the Aggies fine. They're 17-8 ATS their last 25, when the O/U line was set at 63 or higher. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win here. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Huge game, obviously. While both teams have been great, I believe that the Bucks are the more complete team. Playing at home, I expect them to have the advantage. Note that the Bucks won both last season's meetings by double-digits. While the Lakers have outscored teams by a solid 112.9 to 106.1 mark on the road, the Bucks have outscored teams by a dominating 122.3 to 107.9 margin here at home. While both teams hit roughly the same percentage of field goals, the Bucks are much stingier defensively. Opposing teams hit 41.5% of their fg's against Milwaukee compared to 43.6% (44.7% on road) for LA. Expect that superior defense, along with homecourt, to prove the difference, the Bucks improving to 30-11-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off an upset loss. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Cougars' slow start, compared to last season, isn't that surprising. After all, they lost four seniors from last year's 33-win team that went to the Sweet 16. However, there's still plenty of talent here and they're fairly heavy favorites here for good reason. While Houston has faced quality programs like BYU, Oregon, South Carolina and Oklahoma State, UTEP's toughest opponent has arguably been New Mexico State. They did beat UC-Irvine last time out but previous wins has come against lightweights like NC AT&T and Ark-Pine Bluff. UTEP is still just 2-20 SU in lined road games the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark when the O/U line was in the 120s. The Cougars are 7-0 SU the past seven times that they were off a SU loss as a favorite. Expect them to improve on those stats tonight, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks have played the Jazz tough the past couple of seasons and I expect them to give them all they can handle again this evening. Two years ago, the Hawks won 104-90 here as home underdogs. Then, getting 13.5 points, they won at Utah. Last season, the Jazz won at Utah. However, the Hawks again gave them all they could handle, here at Atlanta. Getting 7.5 points, the Hawks again won outright, a 117-114 win. The Jazz are off b2b fairly close games, winning by seven and eight points, despite hosting the Warriors and Magic. The Hawks played the Lakers tough last time on this floor, losing by five. Including that result, they're 3-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 point range. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle once again. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. At 5-23, the Warriors' season is a write-off. There's no saving it. Thats not true for the Blazers though. They may be last in their division. However, they're still 11-16 and only one good run from getting themselves back in contention. That said, this is a stretch that they need to take advantage of. Last time out, the Blazers eked out a 1-point win over the Suns. Thats the type of victory a team can build positive momentum from. Now, in a 4-game stretch before Christmas, the Blazers get home games against the Warriors, Magic, T-Wolves and Pelicans. Those are all very winnable games, tonight's being the "easiest" on paper. I believe that they're ready to tip off that stretch by blowing someone out of the building. The Blazers haven't forgotten losing at Golden State earlier or all those losses the Warriors have handed them in recent season. Tonight, they get some payback in serious blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND STATE. This is a big line and I believe that it will prove to be too big. The Blue Demons lost a few key seniors from last season's team, two of them 5th year seniors. Despite those losses, they've been able to get off to a strong start. However, they dropped their first game last time out and I believe that the leadership lost with those seniors will show itself here. Off that loss, its going to be tough for this young team to bounce back and cover this big a number on the road. With a Big Ten team (Northwestern) on deck, followed by Big East play, it'll be easy to look past a team like Clev. State. The Vikings have won two of their last three here though, the loss coming by 15. Keep in mind that Depaul only beat this team by 10, at Chicago, last season. Playing at Cleveland, look for the Vikings to present a much tougher challenge than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Spurs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. These teams met less than two weeks ago, at San Antonio. You may recall that one as it was a double-OT thriller. The Spurs won 135-133. The Rockets certainly haven't forgotten. So, they'll have payback on their minds. Also, they got upset here by Detroit last time out. With four road games following this one, they know they need to take care of business tonight. Note that they're 31-11 SU the past 2+ seasons, off an upset loss, 15-4 SU off an upset loss at home. During that span, the Rockets were also 31-10 SU when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. Expect the revenge-minded Rockets to improve on those stats Monday, pulling away for a double-digit win while picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Cowboys opened as favorites here but money came in on the Rams and now its LA which is favored. While I respect the Rams, I believe that move is providing us with excellent value on what is going to be an extremely determined Dallas team. Obviously, the Cowboys would love to avenge last year's playoff loss. This game is about more than that though. The Cowboys need to win the NFC East to get the playoffs and the defending division champs know they're going to need this game to accomplish that feat. The Rams know they need this one every bit as much, which is going to make for a good game. Playing at home and playing with extra preparation time (Cowboys are 4-1 SU/ATS their last five, off a Thursday game) is going to give Dallas the edge though. You'll hear a lot about the Cowboys not beating good teams so far this season. That changes here. Backs against the wall, ook for the Cowboys to bounce back with their best effort of the season, improving to 7-1 ATS the past eight times that they'd lost three of their previous four games. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. I won with the Wildcats in their last game, mentioning that this was a very talented team. (Full excerpt below, if interested.) Laying about 20, they won by 50. While this is, of course, a far tougher opponent, I expect the Cats to carry the positive momemtum forward into this game. These teams met, at Gonzaga, last November. Playing on their homecourt, the Bulldogs blew out the Wildcats. Needless to say, Arizona hasn't forgotten. Gonzaga, 2-3 ATS the past five times it was getting points, hasn't been an underdog yet this season. This will be its toughest game. The Bulldogs will be playing the second of b2b road games; they're 0-1 ATS in that situation this season and they're 8-12 ATS their last 20 when off a road win. Lay the short number with the talented and motivated home team. 

Writeup from Arizona's last game: The Mavericks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Though they haven't covered of late, this is a very talented Arizona team, arguably more so than in recent seasons. Here, the Wildcats are going to be in an angry mood, after having lost to Baylor. This team hadn't previously tasted defeat and will be looking to put the hurt on someone. the Mavericks figure to be the perfect opponent. Not only are they severely outmatched athletically and from a talent-perspective, but they're at the end their longest road stretch of the season. They've been putting on some serious travel miles and it figures to catch up and take a toll on them tonight. Look for the angry Wildcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, blowing their road weary guests out of the building. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Thunder have fared quite well as underdogs this season. However, they havent visited Denver yet. They lost at Sacramento by a point last time out and now they're playing the final leg of a road trip and final road game before Christmas. I believe that they're going to have trouble. The Nuggets returned home from a trip and promptly pounded Portland. They're 79-23 (SU) here the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, they're also 27-15 SU and 26-15-1 ATS against divisional opponents, 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS this season. They dominated the Thunder last season and I expect another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on GEORGETOWN. Its been a tough start at the betting window for the Hoyas, here at home. However, I expect a visit from their hated longtime rivals to bring out their best. Indeed, the bad blood between these teams goes back a long time. The Orange won by seven here two seasons ago and they won by one (as -9.5 point favorites) at Syracuse last season. This is a far less experienced Syracuse team though, providing the Hoyas with the perfect opportunity to break through with an important win and cover. The Orange, who hammered G-Tech last time out, are just 3-6 ATS the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of six or less. During that span, they're also 0-3 SU/ATS when off a conference win of 20 or more points. The Hoyas, meanwhile, are 4-1 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off an upset win of 15 or more, as a road underdog and 2-0 SU/ATS off two or more consec. wins as a road underdog. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Already potentially weary from playing the 5th leg of a 6-game road trip, the Clippers may also be ripe for an emotional letdown after defeating the defending champs, at Kawhi's old stomping grounds. Either way, they're going to be facing an extremely motivated T-Wolves team. The Wolves haven't won yet this month and they're desperate to change that. Since scoring only 91 to begin their trip, the Clippers have hit at least 110 in each of their last three games. That's proven that its not necessarily a good thing; they're 0-4 ATS this season after scoring 105 or more in each of their previous three games. Look for the Wolves to bring their best effort, improving to 19-11 ATS the past 30 times that they had failed to cover their previous six games.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I backed the Hornets in their last game and they rewarded me with an upset win at Brooklyn. I don't think they're going to be able to do it again tonight though. Charlotte may come in with the better record but the Bulls are starting to get going and I believe that they're the superior team. Two games ago, the Bulls lost a 1-point game against Toronto, their third straight defeat of five or less. To take the champs down to the wire was still a good effort though and they followed it up with a 136-point explosion (136-102 win) against Altanta last game. They're quietly a dominant 25-9-2 ATS in December, the past 2+ seasons. They're also 7-2 ATS the past nine times that they were off a double-digit home win. Expect another one tonight. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. While I lost with the Jets this past Sunday, I always do my best to wipe the slate clean and look at each game without bias from preivous plays, won or lost. In this case, though it surely didn't help me Sunday as they failed to cover, I like the fact that the Jets eked out the SU win. That showed heart and will provide confidence and positive momentum for this one. They've quietly won four of five and nobody has beaten them by more than 16 since the Pats did so back in October. Of course, the Ravens have looked very impressive all season. A road game against a tough Buffalo team can take a toll though and they're being asked to cover an awful big number here, on a short week. Their last two games have both been decided by seven or less. The Ravens have thrived on the road, at the betting window, but they're actually only 2-4 ATS when listed as the home team. Going back further finds them at an ugly 8-15 ATS in home games, the past 2+ seasons. Look for this one to be closer than many will be expecting and grab the generous points. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Mavericks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Though they haven't covered of late, this is a very talented Arizona team, arguably more so than in recent seasons. Here, the Wildcats are going to be in an angry mood, after having lost to Baylor. This team hadn't previously tasted defeat and will be looking to put the hurt on someone. the Mavericks figure to be the perfect opponent. Not only are they severely outmatched athletically and from a talent-perspective, but they're at the end their longest road stretch of the season. They've been putting on some serious travel miles and it figures to catch up and take a toll on them tonight. Look for the angry Wildcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, blowing their road weary guests out of the building. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Knicks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off the home loss against OKC, which was preceded by a loss to the Lakers, the Blazers are going to be in an angry mood. They only previous time they lost a home game to a divisional opponent this season they bounced back with a double-digit win (and cover) in their next game. The Blazers were laying -11.5 when the Knicks played here last season and won by 10. We're working with a lower line tonight but I expect a bigger margin of victory. (The previous season, they were laying -9.5 but won by 24.) Portland knows that NY is 1-9 away from MSG and it knows it has road games at Denver and Phoenix on deck. In other words, the Blazers need to take care of business here. They will. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. I mentioned when I backed them last time that the Wildcats are better than their record indicates. Indeed, this is a very strong and experienced team. I've done well in picking my spots with the Wildcats and I believe they're going to lay a beating on this overmatched opponent. While the Wildcats are a very experienced team, the Eagles are a very inexperienced one. They brought back only one starter and only four players appeared in more than 12 games. Indeed, this is a mismatch and with tougher games on deck, Davidson will look to continue to build positive momentum by keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Both of these teams have seen better days. The Eagles have dropped three straight, most recently a humiliating loss against lowly Miami. The Giants, meanwhile, haven't won in months. Playing at home, knowing they will face these same Giants at New York in 20 more days, I expect the Eagles to be the team which bounces back. As bad as Eagles' fans might feel, keep in mind that the first two of their three losses came against the Patriots and the Seahawks, a pair of playoff teams capable of meeting in the Super Bowl. Both losses were close. So, in hindsight, a letdown against the Dolphins wasn't that shocking. Here, however, they're facing a hated division rival and there won't be any letdown. The Eagles' defense allows 18 points and 270.5 yards here at home. The Giants, on the other hand, allow 30.8 ppg and 404 ypg on the road. Expect that far superior defense to be the difference, the Eagles bouncing back with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. After a slow start out of the gate, the Gophers are playing much better basketball than they were to start the season. A 78-60 win over Clemson last time out brought them to 3-1 SU their last four and 4-1 ATS their last five. Its important to note that their four losses this season all came by single digits, the last two by five or less. Speaking of close games, the last two meetings between these teams were both decided by five or less. The Gophers won 92-87 last January and 86-82 the previous February. While the Gophers are well-rested, the Hawkeyes have been playing a lot of basketball lately. Having played three straight away from home, losing two of them and dealing with some bumps and bruises, the tough schedule could be taking a toll. Expect the Gophers to give them all they can handle, en route to AT LEAST the ATS win. 

I'm playing on LA. The Seahawks have obviously been on a very impressive run. I feel that it comes to a temporary halt tonight though. The Rams got embarrassed, on National TV, by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, two weeks ago. Tonight, they get a chance to show the world that they're better than that. They've already bounced back by blowing out Arizona last week, providing some positive momentum here. Note that the Rams are 9-1 SU their last 10, off a division win and 5-0 SU their last five off a divisional win of 21 or more. True, they're up against another special QB in Wilson. Seattle brings out the best in this LA team though. The Rams gave the Hawks all they could handle at Seattle, losing by one. Prior to that, they'd beaten them three straight times. In addition to playing at home, the Rams have the schedule in their favor; the Hawks are playing on a short week. While the Hawks obviously want to win, the Rams need to. As Gurley noted, "we're scratching our way in." Look for them to find a way.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The 76ers continue to treat me well. Yesterday, I won with the 'over' in their game against the Cavs. In their previous game, I successfully played against them when they lost at Washington. The game before that? I successfully backed them when they beat Utah. You get the idea. Today, its a rematch against the hated Raptors, the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year and which probably prevented them from being champions. The Ratpors won this season's first meeting (I won with the 'under' in that one) but that was at Toronto, while this one's at Philly. Thats a pretty significant difference, given that the 76ers are 5-7 on the road but 9-0 here at home. Needless to say, the 76ers are going to be extremely motivated. They're 32-10 SU as home favorites of six or fewer points the past 2+ seasons and that includes a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark this season. Yesterday's game was such a blowout and it was here at home, that its not really a factor. Yet, it has helped in keeping the line a bit lower than it could have otherwise been. I say the 76ers finally get a little payback. 

I'm playing on the NEW YORK JETS. The Dolphins already beat the Jets. Last week, they upset the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Jets lost against the previously winless Bengals. Many will look at all that and see this as a no-brainer to take the points. Football is a funny game though; I have the Jets winning by double-digits. Neither offense has been good but the Jets have been slightly better, in terms of ppg. More importantly, they've been much better, in terms of points allowed. The Jets allow 23.3 ppg (20.8 at home) while the Dolphins allow 31.4. Over their past three games, Miami opponents are averaging 36.3 ppg and 425.7 ypg. The Jets, on the other hand, have allowed an average of 14.0 ppg and 236.7 ypg, their last three. The Dolphins are 7-13 ATS their last 20 as road underdogs and that includes a 1-5 ATS mark their last six as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. They're 0-3 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a game they won SU where they were a home underdog of seven or more points. During that span, the Jets were 2-0 ATS when off a loss as a road favorite. Lay the points, its payback time. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO. Both these teams are having excellent season. However, the Ravens, thanks to Lamar Jackson's remarkable numbers, seem to be getting a lot more credit/respect than the Bills. Indeed, while the Ravens are 10-2 the Bills are 9-3. Yet, the Bills are nearly a touchdown underdog, at home. Thats too much, in my opinion. The Bills are 4-1 their last five, holding all five of those opponents to 20 or fewer points. The one loss came by just three. In addition to having the venue in their favor, the Bills have had extra time to prepare, as they played on Thansgiving. The Ravens are off an extremely hard fought 3-point win against SF. Expect them to have their hands full once again, the Bills earning AT LEAST a cover and improving to 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were home underdogs of seven or fewer points. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. I won with the 'under' when the Buckeyes beat the Badgers earlier in the season. It was only 10-0 at halftime before getting a bit dicey in the second half. The Buckeyes won 38-10. That was at Columbus though and now the game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium, at Indianapolis. Yet, the Buckeyes opened as even bigger favorites for this one than they closed as for the first game. Thats not giving much respect to the Badgers and its offering us excellent value. Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor had this to say: "Very motivated. I know my team will try to lean on me to make plays. I have to make sure I'm ready this week." With Taylor bouncing back with a much better effort than he had in the first game, look for the Badgers to improve to 3-0 ATS the past three times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 21 or more points. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. The Huskies are a mostly experienced and well-coached team. However, they've played a fairly soft schedule thus far and therefore the loss of their leader (Pusica) hasn't really caught up with. Davidson, has played a much tougher schedule and is a far stronger team that its record shows. I believe the Wildcats, also experienced and well-coached, have a considerable edge in talent. Yet, due to the records (and venue) we're not having to lay a big number with the superior team. Expect the cream to rise to the top, talented and determined Davidson getting it done. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. The Bears were up 31-10 at halftime in the first meeting and they still couldn't win. Having squandered that opportunity, they won't get another one. Prior to that 34-31 comeback thriller, the Sooners' last win against the Bears came by 33 points. I believe that there's still a talent difference. The earlier meeting and Baylor's big win againt Kansas have helped us by keeping the line in single digits. Remember, the Sooners were a -10.5 point favorite for the first meeting and that was at Baylor. Off an 18-point win at OSU to close out the season, look for the Sooners to get off to a much better start in this one, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way and improving to 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU) the past eight times that they were off a double-digit road win. 

I'm playing on LA TECH. Its another "all Bulldog" matchup here. Once again, I'm going with the Bulldogs from LA Tech. Some will recall that I backed LA Tech against the Samford Bulldogs last time out. LA Tech won by 22, covering by double-digits. Off that win, confidence will be sky high. Other than Villanova, which beat Miss. State, this is the toughest team, in my opinion, that Miss. State will have faced. While Miss. State is a good team, I feel it could get caught looking ahead to a big game at K-State, next up on its schedule. Note that LA Tech is 2-0 ATS against the SEC the past couple of seasons while MSU is 0-2 ATS against Conf. USA. I mentioned in the win over Samford that LA Tech brought back four starters from last season. An experienced team, look for them to give their hosts a tougher game than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I won with the 76ers in their last game. However, that was at home and they were laying less points than they are now. That 9-point win against Utah notwithstanding, the 76ers have been playing a lot of very close games lately. Their previous four games were all decided by six or fewer points. So, thats five straight decided by single-digits. That makes covering this kind of number on the road tough. The Wizards are going to be desperate. They're 16-8-1 ATS their last 25 as home underdogs. In what should be another close one, grab the points and look for the Wizards to improve to 13-5 ATS the last 18 times that they played a home game where the O/U line was 230 or greater. 

I'm playing on UNC. The Buckeyes are off to a great start. However, they're playing at a very difficult venue and I expect the talented Tar Heels to bring them down to earth this evening. The Buckeyes are just 2-5 SU/ATS the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of six or fewer points. During that span, the Heels are 4-1 SU/ATS as home favorites of six or less. While the Buckeyes scored 90 points last time out, it should be kept in mind that the opponent was Morgan State. Also, they're just 8-13 ATS the past couple of seasons, after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. Expect homecourt to prove the difference, the ACC getting the better of the Big Ten in this one. 

I'm playing on UTAH. I successfully played against the Jazz in their last game. However, that was on the road, at a venue where visiting teams were 0-9 and the Jazz were at a scheduling disadvantage. They were also facing a 76ers team which was determined to avenge an earlier close loss. The shoe is completely on the other foot here though. This time, the Jazz are at home. This time, the Jazz are rested and facing a Laker team which played last night in the altitude of Denver. This time, the Jazz are the ones playing with revenge from an earlier loss. While their starts weren't very good, I liked the effort/heart the Jazz showed in each of their last two losses. They fell behind big in both cases but didn't quit either time. They're 11-4 ATS (12-3 ATS) their last 15, off b2b road losses. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Wednesday night. 

I'm playing on EASTERN MICHIGAN. The Eagles struggled last time out. Now at home, facing a Valparaiso team I feel they match up well against, I expect them to bounce back. While they only managed 56 points last time out, note that the Eagles are 10-4 ATS, the past couple of seasons, after having scored 60 or fewer points in their previous game. A closer look shows that they're 3-0 SU/ATS after having scored 60 or less in b2b games. They've also responded well to double-digit losses, going 11-5 (9-5 ATS) in that situation the past couple of seasons. While the Crusaders have fared well when they don't turn the ball over, they're 0-3 when turning the ball over more than 14 times. (The Eagles force an average of 21.4 turnovers.) The Crusaders are just 3-7-2 ATS (2-10 SU) the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of six or fewer points. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Jazz eked out a win when these teams met at Salt Lake City earlier. With this evening's rematch being played at Philadelphia and aided by a scheduling advantage, the 76ers should get some payback this evening. While the 76ers had Sunday off, the Jazz got blown out by the defending champs, at Toronto. They were crushed right out of the gate and there was a worry that the starters might get pulled. That didn't happen though as Mitchell still played more than 30 minutes, Bogdanovich 29+, Gobert more than 28 etc. While the Jazz have had a few b2b situations this season, they've been fortunate that they got to play them at home against weaker teams, New Orleans, Brooklyn, Sacramento etc. Now, however, they're on the road against one of the best in the East, a rested and revenge-minded Philly team. With a 9-0 record on this floor, the 76ers outscore visiting teams by an average of 109.9 to 99.1. The Jazz struggle to score on the road at the best of times and figure to have trouble doing so tonight. While the 76ers are 0-3-1 ATS their last four, they're also 14-6 ATS (16-4 SU) the past 20 times that they'd failed to cover in three or more straight. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Recent meetings between these teams have been at Foxboro. The last two were both very close, New England winning by seven and three points. Now, the Texans get to face them here at Houston. I expect that to make all the difference. In addition to playing at home, I like that the Texans have had some extra time to prepare. Their last game was on a Thursday; they're 2-0 ATS off a Thursday game, the past couple of seasons. Speaking of that Thursday game, I like the fact that the Texans were able to eke out a win. Note that they're a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a game where they won but didn't cover. The Texans haven't lost here since September. In what should be another close one, I'll happily take the points. However, I expect the Texans to bring their A game and win outright. 

I'm playing on LA TECH. While both teams brought back four of five starters from last season, I believe that the LA Tech Bulldogs are a considerably better team and I expect them to show it here. The LA Tech defense forces a lot of turnovers and Samford has had real trouble on the road, going 0-4 SU/ATS. Samford has been outscored in those games by an average of 83 to 70.2. LA Tech, on the other hand, has outscored teams by an 85.3 to 52 margin here at home. Off a loss last time out, LA Tech will look to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. After its previous loss, LA Tech won its next game by 33. Expect a double-digit win for the home team. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. This is a very difficult spot for the Hawks. Yesterday, they left it all on the floor in a 1-point OT loss at Indiana. That type of loss takes a toll but mentally and physically. They've won just seven of 31, when playing the second of b2b games, the past 2+ seasons. That includes an 0-4 mark this season, a 1-3 record at the betting window. In two road games, after having played the previous day, the Hawks are 0-2 SU/ATS, losing by 15 and 21. This is arguably a more difficult venue than either of those ones were and the Hawks are off a tougher loss and in a tougher scheduling spot. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, this represents their sixth game in the past nine days. Expect it to catch up to them here as the rested Rockets, 2-0 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games, deliver a blowout. 

I'm playing on NC STATE. Though they didn't win, I like the effort the Wolfpack showed in battling back against G-Tech last game. (They're 7-2 SU/ATS over the years off a road loss of three or less.) Obviously, they're going to be fired up to host their instate rival. With the line having risen to double-digits, I believe we're getting outstanding value. Note that the Tar Heels are only 4-7-1 ATS as favorites the past couple of seasons. I like the fact that NC State has had a couple of extra days to prepare; their last game came on a Thursday. The Wolfpack won by six at North Carolina last year and they beat the Heels by 12 here the previous year. UNC might find a way to win this year but if they do, its NOT going to be easy. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on CSU. This line has risen from its opener and I believe its providing us with excellent value on the home underdog. The Broncos were favored by 6.5 points their last visit here, winning by seven. You may remember that one, the Broncos were undefeated at the time but the Rams gave them a real scare, leading 35-17 at halftime. While the Broncos could be looking ahead to bigger things to come, the Rams will honor 13 seniors before the game, their last of the season. The weather is likely going to be ugly; as of Wednesday that they had 100 workers in their shoveling snow. That may well favor what is going to be a determined home team. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. I successfully backed the Hokies when these teams met last Black Friday. The Cavs were -5.5 point favorites but the Hokies won outright by a field goal. This time, its the Hokies who are favored. Once again, I'll be backing the underdog. While I do expect the Cavs to win outright, having an extra field goal to work with, in a game which could well be decided by a field goal or less, is a comforting feeling. Off three straight wins, the Cavs come in full of confidence. Last time out, they hammered Liberty 55-27, a game which saw them rush for a season high 227 yards. It was the most points they scored in a game since 2004. While the Hokies are off b2b blowout wins, both in shutout fashion, its worth noting that they're only 1-3 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b wins of 21 or more points. The Cavs, meanwhile, are 5-0-1 ATS after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their previous game. Expect at least another cover Friday afternoon.

I'm playing on CREIGHTON. Two solid teams squaring off in Vegas. I like the experience and depth that the BlueJays, which brought back five of last season's top six scorers, bring to the table. Note that they're 4-0 all-time at Orleans Arena, beating the likes of Wisconsin (84-74) and Arizona State (87-73) in 2012; as well as Fresno State (84-65) and DePaul (83-75) in 2008. I say that the BlueJays continue their success here, improving to 65-35 their last 100 non-conference games, while handing the Aztecs their first loss. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. While I successfully played against the Falcons last game, I believe that a primetime Thanksgiving game, at home, against the Saints, will bring out their best. Indeed, this is as big as it gets for them, as the playoffs are out of the question. Having already won at New Orleans, they know they can play with these guys. That was no fluke either; the Falcons won 26-9, less than three weeks ago. I expect this one to be closer. Games between these teams, here at Atlanta, almost always are. In fact, 10 straight meetings between these teams, here at Atlanta, have been decided by 10 or fewer points. Nine of those 10 were decided by six or less. If you'd been getting +6.5 or +7 with the Falcons in each of those games, you'd be a perfect 10-0. The Saints saw their most recent game decided by a field goal. Look for this one to also come down to the wire, the Falcons bringing their best game and improving to 12-4 ATS their last 16 Thursday games. 

I'm playing on LA. The Ravens have certainly been on an impressive run. However, I feel that the defending NFC champs aren't getting nearly enough respect. The Rams have the weapons on offense but its their defense which has been dominant of late. Since acquiring Jaylen Ramsey, they've held four straight opponents to 17 or less and three of those finished with 10 or less. Ramsey had this to say: "Hopefully, we go out there, we set the tone, we play a good game and we let the world know who the L.A. Rams are." Last time out, LA allowed just seven points. The Rams, 10-2 their last 12 against AFC teams, are 3-1 ATS the last four, after allowing 17 or fewer points in each of their last three games. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 1-3 ATS after allowing nine or less points. The Ravens are also just 1-5 ATS the past six, after covering in four or five of their previous six games. While I like LA to win outright, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. The Huskies are a much deeper and more experienced than Oakland. The Grizzlies were supposed to be a really experienced team but they lost six players in the offseason, players that were expected to come back, including the team's starting backcourt. That's going to catch up with them against German and co. The Huskies are 5-2 ATS off a road win the past couple of seasons, 2-0 ATS off b2b road wins. Expect them to pull away for the win and cover, improving to 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

I'm playing on SF. These teams met last October, at Lambeau. The Packers were laying -9.5 points but the 49ers gave them all they could handle. SF took a 24-20 lead into halftime and GB eventually won 33-30, hitting a field goal as time expired. The 49ers have gotten a lot better since then though and now they're playing at home. I expect them to make a statement on National TV, showing the world that they are indeed for real. While Rodgers may be from California, the Pack lost 26-11 the last time that they played in this state. The Pack are just 6-13-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were off an ATS win. The Pack outscore teams by a 21.5 to 19.2 margin on the road, the 49ers outscore teams by a dominant 33.2 to 17.8 margin at home. Lay the points. 

I'm playing on WINNIPEG. I have a pretty good memory of sporting events when I was a kid and actually recall the last time these teams met in a Grey Cup. That was 35 years ago, back in 1984. Yikes! Those were back in the days when all of Canada watched the Grey Cup. Many Canadians, ourselves included, only had a couple of channels. So they didn't have much choice. As I lived in Southern Ontario, I was definitely cheering for the Ti-Cats. Western teams were dominating in those days though; I even recall the Eskimos crushing the Cats in 1980 and Winnipeg won by a convincing 47-17 score. Both teams won a couple Grey Cups in the next 15 years after that 1984 beatdown but neither has won in this millennium. Both have lost their last couple of times here. Both will be hungry. Four of the past five Grey Cups have been decided by six or less. Another close one won't surprise which makes getting more than a field goal very attractive. While the Ticats had the edge in the reg. season, the Bombers are peaking at the right time. They're 8-1 ATS their last nine as underdogs. Grab the points. 

I'm playng on TAMPA. Off six straight losses, the Falcons suddenly caught fire and won big in b2b road games. Now, they find themselves favored for the first time in more than a month. The Falcons are 0-2 ATS when laying points on the season and I expect them to have their hands full against what will be a determined Tampa team. True, the Bucs haven't won for a long time. They're still playing hard though and this is a game they know they can win. While I like the Bucs' chances of winning outright, having more than a field goal to work with could well come in handy, given the recent history between these rivals. The last three meetings have all been decided by five or less, two of them decided by three or less. The Bucs are 8-3 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after having lost six or seven, of their previous eight games. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. While I respect the Broncos, I expect them to have their hands full here. Last year's game was decided by single-digits and that was at Boise. Now, the Broncos are on the road where they're 0-2 ATS their last two. The Aggies, who average better than 500 yards of offense per game here at home, are off back-to-back wins. The fact that they were both close ones should serve them well here. They're coming in confident they can score the upset. The Aggies are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were home underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. Expect them to improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover tonight and don't be surprised by the outright win. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Heat have been on a nice roll. However, playing their second straight on the road, on consecutive nights, I expect their streak to come to an end this evening. The Heat are already 0-2 SU and 0-1-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. They lost by 15 and by seven. The 76ers are 30-10 SU and 23-17 ATS when listed as home favorites of -6 or less. They won two of the three meetings last season, including the lone game here. Expect a win and cover for the home team. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. I won with both these teams in their last game. Tonight, playing at home, I expect it to be the Nets which keep it going. The Kings have been on an impressive ATS win streak. They're still only 2-4 on the road though. As I mentioned last time when the Nets won big, they really wanted a minimum of two of these three home games. After dropping the first, they can still salvage the 2-1 mark on the homestand. I expect them to be extremely motivated. The Nets took both last season's meetings, scoring 123 points in each game, including a 123-94 blowout here in Brooklyn. Nets roll. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. I successfully played against the Suns last time out. However, that was on the road against a revenge-minded Sacramento team. Now, they're back home to take on a banged-up Pelican team which is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS away from New Orleans. With a pair of road games on deck and knowing that they'll face these same Pelicans in two weeks, at New Orleans, the Suns know they need to take care of business tonight. Otherwise, their hot start will soon be a distant memory. The Suns beat the Pelicans by seven the last meeting here. They're 5-2 ATS as favorites and I expect another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. While I won with the Colts last week, I really think that they're in trouble here. Importantly, they're now on the road, instead of at home. In my opinion, thats even more significant than normal when on a short week. The Colts are 2-2 on the road, the Texans 3-1 at home. The Colts won the first meeting, at Indianapolis. However, the Texans were playing their second straight on the road. All the same, the Texans were able to do a great job in slowing down Marlon Mack and the Colts ground game. Speaking of Mack, he's out for this week. That hurts a team which is banged-up at receiver and which relies very heavily on the run. Williams ran well last week to replace Mack but he will find the going much tougher here against a Houston team which rarely allows running backs to find the end zone. The Texans are also without their starting back but I like Hyde as a replacement better than Williams. I also expect Watson to bounce back with a much better performance; in their last two home games the Texans have scored 80 combined points. Look for the Texans to improve to 6-2 ATS the past eight times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. Off a tough road trip, the Nets came into their current 3-game homestand, games against the Pacers, Hornets and Kings, thinking that they really needed to go at least 2-1 and hopefully 3-0. However, they already got hammered by the Pacers in the first game. I believe thats going to lead to an extremely motivated effort tonight. While these teams split four meetings overall last season, the Nets have had plenty of success against Southeast teams overall; they're 23-13 SU/ATS against that division the past couple of seasons. During that span, they're also 14-8-1 ATS when off a loss by 15 or more. Catching Charlotte, which is 7-18-4 ATS off a loss of 15 or more, off a 36-point loss against the champs, expect the Nets to bounce back with their best effort, en route to a much needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. These teams met on opening night at Phoenix. I released a big play on the Suns and they came through for me with a decisive victory. They continued to roll for a long time after that, too. They've started to cool off now though and they're off a blowout loss against Boston last night. The Kings, on the other hand, have gone the other way. Off their opening loss at Phoenix, they really struggled for some time, going 0-5 SU/ATS their first five. They've covered every single game since then though, a 7-0 ATS (5-2 SU) run. Schedule and venue in their favor and playing with revenge from the opener, I expect the Kings to keep on rolling for at least one more night, improving to a perfect 8-0 ATS in November. 

Im playing on NIU. While neither team is exactly stout defensively, the Huskies have the edge in that department. They allow 27.9 ppg (12.3 at home!) and 386.2 (217.3 at home!) yards. Eastern Michigan, on the other hand, allows 31.3 ppg and 435.2 ypg. The Eagles got a big win last time out. However, that was at Akron. Now, they're playing their second straight on the road, while taking a considerable step up in class. While we have to go back some time, note that the Eagles are 3-9 ATS the past dozen times they were off a double-digit conference win and 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU) when off a conference win of 21 or more. The Huskies have been to seven of the last nine MAC title games. They still have a shot to get back but would need to win out and get some help. Either way, in order for them to be bowl eligible, they need to win both this game and the next. They found a way to beat Toledo, eking out a 3-point win. They're 11-3 the past 14 times that they were off a win of three or less, 3-1 (SU and ATS) the past four. Speaking of close wins, the Huskies have won the last two between these teams by scores of 26-23 and 30-27. Back home and desperate for a victory, expect them to find a way once again. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. I won with the Wildcats in their last game. I noted that they were a very talented and experienced that was looking to explode, after a poor start. They did exactly that, destroying UNC-Wilmington. Nevada is probably a bit stronger than the Seahawks but is still a team that Davidson will be able to handle. I expect Davidson to carry its positive momentum to be carried forward. Note that the Wolfpack are off a double-digit loss and that they'll now be playing their first game on the road. While the Wildcats brought back their entire starting lineup from last season, the Wolfpack lost their entire starting lineup. They've got a new coach with a fairly big name (Alford) but he got a late start in recruiting and two of the players he signed are Div 1 transfers and have to sit out a season. In other words, Davidson has a vast edge in experience and depth. Expect it be to evident tonight as the Wildcats deliver another blowout. 

I'm playing on LA. I sucessfully played against the Chiefs last week. At the time, I noted that the return of Mahomes wasn't going to fix the Chiefs' issues on defense, particularly against the run. Sure enough, that was the problem. The Titans scored 35 points and Derrick Henry (188 rush yards, 2 TDs) won me my week in Fantasy. The Chargers run the ball differently than the Titans but they too will be able to exploit the Chiefs' soft run defense. In the most recent meeting between these teams, a 29-28 win for the Chargers, LA had double as many yards on the ground, a 119-60 advantage. In fact, the Chargers also even threw for more yards in that game, while holding a solid edge in first downs and time of possession. Chargers coach Anthony Lynn played in Mexico as a player and that experience should prove helpful. Knowing what its like and with the Chargers having extra time off, due to playing on a Thursday last week, Lynn had them train in the high altitude of Colorado Springs for the week, to help prepare for the 7200 feet about sea level they'll deal with in Mexico City. Look for it to prove helpful, the Chargers coming away with AT LEAST the cover on Monday night.