Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* PERS FAV). The home team won both meetings last season. The Pelicans won by seven at New Orleans. Howver, the 76ers hammered them by a 100-82 margin in the game here at Philadelphia. Homecourt has been huge from both these teams again so far this season. The 76ers are a poor 3-7 on the road but a perfect 9-0 here at Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are 8-1 at New Orleans but just 2-6 at home. With an O/U line in the high 230s, this is expected to be a high-scoring game. That suits the 76ers just fine. They're 29-13 ATS the past 42 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. During that same span, they're also 52-27-1 ATS when facing an opponent which averages 106 or more points. Expect the tempo and venue to lead to another win and cover for the new look 76ers. 

I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* PERS FAV). The Owls and Rams will be facing each other at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. I expect the Owls to have the advantage. Over the years, we've gotten used to the Rams consistently being a very strong squad. Indeed, prior to last season, the Rams had won a minimum of 24 games in 11 consecutive seasons. Last season, they got a new coach and fell to just 17-14. Top players Tillman and Williams prevented them from stumbling even further. However, they too have now moved on. That means that the Rams are going to have trouble with teams like Temple. Unlike the Rams, the Owls brought back most of their pieces from last season's team. Expect their experience and depth to prove the difference Monday night. 

I'm playing on LA (10* MNF GAME OF YEAR). When this game was moved from Mexico to LA, I believe it was a bigger advantage for the Rams than is being indicated by the pointspread. Its true that the Rams have recently been winning, while not covering, with regularity. However, lets not forget that they're still 5-0 here at home and that they're still outscoring teams by an average of 34.4 to 22.4 when playing at home. In terms of total yards, they're outgaining teams by a 476 to 342 margin here. By comparison, the Chiefs are actually getting outgained by a 457.8 to 440 average margin, when playing on the road. Thats a major difference, the Rams allowing 342 yards at home while the Chiefs allowing 458 on the road. Expect the Rams to make a statement, remaining perfect at home, while covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). While they haven't been getting any "W's" to show for it, the Hawks are fighting very hard. They've covered the spread in three of their last four. The Hawks played the Clippers tough last time they met, LA winning by a single point. I expect them to again give the Clippers all they can handle. While both teams had Sunday off, the Hawks also have tomorrow (Tuesday) off. The Clippers, on the other hand, have a rematch against Washington tomorrow. The Clippers are 3-4 on the road overall and that includes a 1-4 SU/ATS mark when playing on the road when the O/U was 220 or greater. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE (10* GAME OF MONTH). Before the season began, not many would have predicted that the Steelers would be such big road favorites here. That would be particularly true if they knew that LeVeon Bell wasn't playing. Yet, that is indeed the case. The Steelers have been playing well while the Jags have underachieved. That said, I liked a number of things that I saw from the Jags in last weeks (3-point) loss vs. the Colts and I believe that the generous pointspread is providing us with excellent value. You may recall that the Jags beat the Steelers by three points in January. They also hammered them last October. Including those results, the're 5-0-1 ATS their last six against teams from the AFC North. They're going to come in confident. All four of Pittsburgh's road games have been decided by seven or fewer points. One finished in a tie, another was decided by three points. Speaking of close games, the Jags have now seen b2b games decided by six or fewer points. With another close game a real possibility and with the Steelers just 1-4 ATS their last five as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range, I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on ST LOUIS. The Billikens have won all three of their games and come in confident. On the other hand, the Pirates may have lost a little of their swagger; they were hammered by 23 points, at Nebraska, last time out. The Pirates have lost a lot: Desi Rodriguez (17.8 ppg), Khadeen Carrington (15.6 ppg and 4.4 apg), and all-time rebounding leader Angel Delgado (13.6 ppg and 11.8 rpg). Expect them to have their hands full. 

I'm playing on NAVY (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Midshipmen have had an extremely difficult schedule. Tulsa is the weakest team that they've faced since September. Their last four games came against the likes of Cincinnati, UCF, Houston and Notre Dame. Those teams are 9-1, 9-0, 7-3 and 10-0. Now, the Midshipmen take a significant step down in class to take on a Tulsa team which is just 2-8. With a rare chance at victory, they won't waste the opportunity. Navy beat Tulsa by double-digits last season. Considering that Tulsa is winless on the road, each of the last four losses coming by double-digits, I'm expecting more of the same Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Homecourt has been huge for the 76ers. Indeed, they're an ugly 2-7 on the road but a perfect 7-0 here at Philadelphia. I fully expect them to keep that perfect record in tact for awhile yet. (After this, their next home games are against Phoenix, New Orleans, Cleveland and NY - all very winnable games.) The first game with Jimmy Butler in the lineup didn't go so well, as the 76ers blew a 16-point lead and lost at Orlando. His acquisition makes this a very dangerous team, however, with three elite players. They're going to be highly motivated to get the first win of the "new era." Sure, the Jazz are going to also be motivated to bounce back off their embarrassing 50-pt loss. However, that loss revealed some issues and I don't think the Jazz match up well against the new look 76ers. Note that Philly swept the season series last year, including a 107-86 blowout win in the game here. They were laying -6 for that one. Despite the perfect home record and arguably a superior team, we're getting them at a lower line here. I feel thats offering excellent value and am expecting another big win. 

I'm playing on FAU (10* BEST BET). The Owls hammered North Texas again last season, after beating the Mean Green by 38 points (69-31) the previous season. Off b2b blowout wins and playing their best football of the season right now, I feel that they're offering us excellent value once again. Thats particularly true with this line opening below three and passing right through that important number. Having put up nearly 1200 yards of total offense their past two games alone, the Owls are oozing with confidence right now. On the other hand, North Texas lost outright, when favored by more than two touchdowns, in its last game. I'll gladly grab the points but I like FAU to win this one outright. 

I'm playing on IOWA (10* GAME OF WEEK). These teams will be playing at MSG. While thats technically a neutral court, I expect it to favor the Hawkeyes. Iowa has played here before, as the Big Ten Tourney was played here last season. (The Hawkeyes beat Illinois and lost to Michigan, the eventual champ, in OT.) Oregon, on the other hand, hasn't played here in more than a decade. While the Ducks are indeed very talented, they're also relatively young. This game is going to be a big deal to them and I expect there to be some nervousness. With an O/U line in the low 150s, as this play is posted, note that the Ducks are just 3-10 ATS the past 13 times that they played a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. Don't expect them to improve on those stats tonight.

I'm playing on KENTUCKY (10* VIOLATOR). The Wildcats opened as the biggest favorite on the Wednesday board. However, I think that line could have easily been even higher, as I'm expecting an absolute destruction. As you probably saw or heard, the Cats got embarrassed by Duke on opening night. Off that 118-84 blowout loss, the worst since before Calipari came here, they came out a little flat out of the gate for their next game and found themselves trailing 44-37 against Southern Illinois. Kentucky woke up though and won 71-59. That wasn't quite enough for the cover but it absolutely provides them with positive momentum. Calipari had this to say: "I just said, be happy we won and figure it out. I've got a pretty good idea of how I'm going to do this now, and I'm just glad that we really got smashed, so there's no question. If you demand a lot, you get a lot. If you accept mediocrity, you're going to get it every time. ... I was very aggressive today." Stepping down in class, expect Calipari to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way Wednesday, en route to a 30+ point blowout win. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE (10* PERS FAV). The Grizzlies have been tough at home. However, they only score 96.3 ppg on the road and thats led to a 2-4 record. Its also going to make it extremely difficult to keep up with a Milwaukee team which averages 124.3 ppg here at home. Allowing only 105.2 ppg here, the Bucks have a perfect 6-0 home record, covering the number in five of those. In fact, even the lone non-cover here was an 11-point win when they were favored by -11.5. In other words, all six games here have been double-digit victories. Expect another one tonight. 

I'm playing on OHIO (10* MAIN EVENT). Yes, I successfully played against the Bobcats, at Miami, last week. However, I've also won with them this season and I'm coming right back with them here. Even after spotting Miami a 28-7 lead, the Bobcats were never out of it. Here at home, they've been dominant, a perfect 4-0. Their last two games here saw the Bobcats win by a combined score of 101-28. Granted, Buffalo has had an excellent season. Even if the Bobcats beat the Bulls here, its going to be very difficult to catch them in the MAC East. Buffalo's final game is on the road. However, it comes against a weak Bowling Green team. So, the Bulls know that even if lose this one, they're still in pretty good shape. Division implications aside, expect the Bobcats to make a statement, showing that they may finish second in the East but that they can beat any team in the league, at least when playing on their home field.

I'm playing on TEXAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Longhorns are 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS thus far. Off a hard fought win over Arkansas, tonight's opponent provides the perfect opportunity for a "feel good" blowout win. Texas won 80-59 when these teams last met and the gap figures to be even larger this time. LA Monroe's games against Jackson State and Millsaps College won't have prepared them for the type of athleticism and intensity that they're going to see tonight. This one gets ugly. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). Off a win at Miami and now with some positive momentum, the Wizards badly need to string together victories. This figures to be the perfect opponent and situation to get one. While the Wizards had yesterday off, the Magic were busy beating up on the Knicks. Sure, that wasn't the most taxing win. However, its still worth mentioning that the Magic are an ugly 11-25-1 ATS (10-27 SU) the past couple of seasons, when off an upset win. The Magic just beat the Wizards, at Orlando, a few nights ago. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect the revenge-minded Wizards to get some payback. 

I'm playing on CINCY (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Saints have sure been on a nice roll. However, this will mark the fifth time that they played on the road, in their past seven games. Off a big win over the previously undefeated Rams, preceded by a big win over the Vikings, the team which knocked them out of the playoffs last season, I feel that the Saints are going to be ripe for a letdown here. Note that the Saints have long struggled against the AFC North, going 8-20-2 ATS their last 30. While the Saints were busy battling the Rams last week, the Bengals are coming off a bye. The Bengals have won three of four home games and I expect AT LEAST a cover Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* PERS FAV). Many aren't going to be willing to back the champs tonight. Not without Curry. Not without Green. As a result, we're getting the champs at a far lower line than we normally would; GS was laying -15 when hosting the Nets last season. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. With the venue and schedule in their favor, Durant, Thompson and co. still have more than enough to deliver a double-digit win tonight. After getting hammered by the Bucks on Thursday, the well-coached Warriors are going to be all business tonight. While the Warriors had last night off, the Nets are off a hard-fought (112-110) win in the high altitude of Denver. They're already 0-2 SU/ATS this season, when playing the second of b2b games. They lost those games by 20 and 19 points. More of the same here. 

I'm playing on UTAH (10* MAIN EVENT). Last night's game at Phoenix worked out about as well as I could have possibly hoped. Not only did I cover with the Suns but the Celtics were forced to fight back and win the game in overtime. The starters had to log some pretty heavy minutes, Irving going over the 43-minute mark. While the Celtics were having to give everything they had, the Jazz had last night off. The Celtics are already 0-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b games and they're now 2-5 ATS on the road. The Jazz snapped their losing streak last time out, winning by 15 points. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to carry the positive momentum from that game into tonight's contest, en route to a win and cover. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* BEST BET). When these teams met at Toledo last season, the line was basically a pick'em. (Toledo closed as a 1-point favorite and won 87-74.) Oakland played that game without one of its top players, Jaylen Hayes, who was out with suspension. Hayes has moved on, as have Nunn and Walker. All three averaged 17 or more points last season. So, those are indeed some big shoes to fill. That said, this is a well-coached team and the cupboard isn't nearly as bare as many seem to feel. The Golden Griffins come in with some confidence, winning their first game by a 99-44 margin. Sure, the opponent (Kalamazoo) was a joke but the fact that they've got that big win under their belt will benefit them. While the Rockets should have another good season and do return a number of key players, the loss of Fletcher (18.1 ppg, 8 rbg) is significant. (He had 20/8 in last year's game.) Last year's game was closer than the final score indicated, the Grizzlies trimming the gap twice in the second half. While I respect the Rockets, I expect the Grizzlies to give them all they can handle here. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX (10* BEST BET). With the Celtics off b2b losses, many will be expecting them to bounce back with an easy win tonight. However, those b2b losses continue a pattern and should be of concern to anyone looking to lay the big number tonight. Through six road games, the Celtics are 3-3. A closer look shows that only one of those six games resulted in a win of greater than six points. With a "bigger game" (Utah) on deck tomorrow, I feel that the Celtics are going to have trouble covering the big number here. The Suns covered both meetings with Boston last season, losing by five and eight points. In fact, they covered both meetings the previous season, too. Including those results, Phoenix is 14-8 ATS is last 22 against teams from the Atlantic while Boston is 8-12 ATS its last 20 against Pacific teams. Unlike their guests, the Suns don't play tomorrow. Their full focus is on the task at hand. Though Booker isn't quite 100% yet, he's got a handful of games under his belt now and is still playing at a high level. Ayton, the #1 pick, is off to a strong start and gives them a new dynamic. Expect their best effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover tonight. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* VIOLATOR). Both teams are hot. The Panthers have won three straight and five of six. The Steelers have won four straight and five of six. That said, I like the Panthers. While Pittsburgh is only 4-6 ATS its last 10 as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -7 range, Carolina is 11-5 ATS its last 16 as an underdog. The Panthers are also already 2-0 SU/ATS against AFC opponents, going 7-2-1 ATS (7-3 SU) their last 10. They hammered both Baltimore and Cincy by double-digits. While the Steelers figure to present a tougher challenge, in a game which could well come down to the wire, I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS (10* BEST BET). The Nuggets are almost always tough at home. However, they're still just 36-50 on the road the past couple of seasons and a closer look at their schedule reveals that they've faced some relatively easy opponents through this season's first four games. Their last two on the road were at Cleveland and Chicago. (Those teams are a combined 4-17 and they're both only won one game on their own home floor.) Tonight, the Nuggets will face a Grizzly team which is a perfect 3-0 on its home floor, outscoring visiting teams by a commanding average of 118.3 to 102.7. The Grizzlies covered both home games against the Nuggets last season, most recently winning outright as a 7-point underdog. Expect them to continue their strong homecourt play this evening. 

I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO (10* VIOLATOR). With the line climbing above three, in my opinion, we're getting excellent value with the home underdog. Note that Miami is 12-6 ATS its last 18, when getting points. Note that Ohio will be playing its second straight road game. This marks the third time that the Bobcats played b2b games away from home. In both previous cases, they lost. Off a neutral site game, they lost (but covered) at Cincy the next week. (I won with Ohio that week.) Off a game at Kent State, the Bobcats then lost at NIU. Note that both games were very close, each decided by four or less. Miami won its last game here by a score of 31-6 and lost its previous one by a single points. I like Miami's chances of the outright upset but in a game that may well come down to the wire, I'll happily grab the points. 

I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* BEST BET). Fran Dunphy succeeded John Chaney as Temple head coach in 2006. In 12 seasons with the Owls, he's got a 247-152 record. Today's game figures to have extra special meaning to Dunphy, for a few reasons. Its his final year as head coach, he'll step aside after this game. So, this will be the last time that he plays a season opener. Additionally, its the last time that he'll face La Salle, unless the teams end up meeting in tournament play. Thats noteworthy as Dunphy graduated from La Salle. Over the years, he's gone 28-8 against his alma mater, 15-4 as a coach of the Owls. Expect him to have his team ready, the players recognizing the significance of the game to their coach and pulling away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The season may be still early but these are desperate times for the Wizards. They began the season by dropping a pair of home games, both very close losses. Next, they went 1-4 on a tough West Coast road trip. They've since returned home and got blown out by OKC. Worse, after this, they go back on the road for another three games. This team is better than its shown and the Porzingis-less Knicks are the perfect opponent to get healthy against. Wizards bounce back big. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO (10* GAME OF WEEK). Everyone just saw the Bills lose, while failing to cover, against the Patriots on National TV. Off that loss, oddsmakers know that few bettors were going to want to back the Bills and were forced to put up a big number. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. While the Bears are clearly an improved team, they still aren't the type of team capable of winning by double-digits on the road. They're played three road games, winning only one of them. All three games were decided by three or fewer points. Despite the lopsided score last week, the Bills were in position to cover right up until the end, a late pick-6 doing them in. They're still playing hard. I expect them to give the Bears all they can handle. 

I'm playing on MISS. STATE (10* NON-CONF GAME OF YEAR). The team from the SEC won last year's "Bulldog Battle" by 36 points. That was at LA Tech, too. With this year's rematch being placed at Miss. State, I'm absolutely expecting another lopsided result. The Bulldogs are 3-0 SU/ATS when facing a team from outside of SEC play, making the most of every non-conf. opportunity. LA Tech is playing the second of b2b road games. They'll face a Miss. State team which is outscoring teams by an average of 35.2 to 10.2 here at home. Their last two games here have been blowout victories over A&M and Auburn. Expect a one-sided affair. 

I'm playing on MONTREAL (10* GAME OF MONTH). I played on the Als last week and they rewarded me with a 40-10 victory. While their season is over, I expect the Als to want this one more than their hosts. This is the Als' final game of the season and they really want to build off last week's big win and carry some positive momentum - and good feelings - into the offseason. While June Jones may say otherwise, the Ti-Cats, on the other hand, could care less about this game. Already very banged-up and guaranteed of facing BC in the playoffs next week, the Ti-Cats just want to avoid further injury. I'll gladly take all the generous points but I'm expecting an outright upset. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Wizards badly need a win. Tonight, they've got both the venue and the schedule working in their favor. While Washington had last night off, OKC is off a relatively hard-fought win at Charlotte. Though I played on the Thunder in their recent win against the Clippers, they're now playing their third game in the past four days. Washington coach Scott Brooks, former coach of the Thunder, has made sure his current team takes care of business when hosting his former team. The Wizards beat the Thunder by six here last season after blowing them out by 22 here the previous season. Howard will be on a minutes restriction in returning tonight but anything extra he can provide will be a bonus. Expect the Wizards to bounce back, moving to 8-2 the past 10 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The 76'ers have gotten off to a poor start at the betting window. Those sup-par ATS results are working in our favor tonight, keeping the line lower than it easily could have been. The 76'ers have faced nothing but Eastern Conf. opposition so far. Tonight, they'll get to add to a 39-21 ATS mark the past two seasons, against teams from the West. The 76ers got blown out at Toronto last time out. They're a perfect 4-0 SU on this floor though and they're also 27-16-1 ATS the last 44 times that they were off a double-digit loss. More? With an O/U line in the high 220s, note that the 76'ers are a lucrative 25-11 ATS the past 36 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. I had the 'over' in last week's WMU game. So, I wasn't thrilled when QB Wassinick went down in the first quarter. However, Kaleb Eleby quickly put my mind at rest. Eleby completed his first eight passes and finished the game 23-for-28 for 293 yards, two touchdowns and a QB rating of 193.6. While the Broncos still lost, poor QB play wasn't the problem. This week, the Broncos will face Ohio, a team that they beat (29-23) to win the MAC title a couple of years ago. The Broncos did a fantastic job of shutting down the Ohio running game in that one, holding the Bobcats to 37 yards on 22 carries. Overall, they held a commanding edge in total yards and time of possession. The Broncos were favored by more than two TDs (opened at -18, closed at -16.5) for that one, despite the game being played at Ford Field. Of course, the faces are different now and much has changed. However, not enough has changed to warrant such a massive pointspread swing, in my opinion. While I respect the Bobcats (won with them at Cincy) they've only won one of four games away from home and that came by a single point. True, the Broncos got lit up last week. Its also true that the last time that they were off a loss, they responded with a 68-0 win, the start of a 6-game winning streak. They're 2-1 ATS the past couple of seasons off a conference loss and 4-1 ATS when playing a game where the line ranged from -3 to +3. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Thursday. 

I'm playing on OKC (10* PERS FAV). I won with the Clippers when these teams faced each other, at LA, on 10/19. Not only were the Thunder playing on the road, they were without Westbrook. The Thunder are back home now though and Westbrook now has a few games under his belt. I expect their best effort tonight and feel that the line is very reasonable. The Thunder have dominated the Clippers here in recent seasons, including 8-point and 9-point wins last season. Playing with 'recent revenge,' expect more of the same tonight. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* MAIN EVENT). Neither team has gotten off to the start it was hoping for. Both will be hungry for a win tonight. Knowing that they'll face Utah next, followed by a difficult 5-game road trip, which begins at Golden State and Portland and which includes these same Lakers, I expect the T-Wolves sense or urgency to be a little greater. Playing on their home floor, the Wolves got blown out last time. However, they're still 2-1 here, now 53-34 the past 2+ seasons. The Lakers, on the other hand, have 1-2 on the road, the lone win coming at Phoenix. The Wolves had plenty of success against the Lakers prior to Lebron's arrival. Expect them to continue that success for at least one more night. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). The Wizards started out the trip with a win at Portland, proving that they're capable of winning at a more difficult venue than this one. They got blown out at Golden State, which wasn't a surprise. Perhaps still feeling the effects of that loss, they also lost at Sacramento. Now, off b2b losses and just 1-4 to start the season, they're going to be extremely hungry tonight. The Wizards played the Clippers tough last season; they won by nine at Washington and lost by just one here at LA. With an O/U line currently at 228 or 229, the pace figures to favor the Wizards. The Clippers are 9-14 ATS (11-12 SU) the last 23 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. During the same stretch, the Wizards were 12-7 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. I'll grab the points but am expecting an upset. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* TV GAME OF YEAR). I won with the Vikings when they beat the Saints 29-24 in the playoffs last season. Admittedly, I felt pretty fortunate to win that one; the victory coming on an unlikely Keenum to Diggs TD on the final play. That "good fortune" won't stop me from backing the Vikes again though. Minnesota opened at -3.5 and closed at -5.5 for that game. So, results varied, depending on when one played. However, the pointspread is essentially a non-factor in Sunday's rematch and I feel thats providing us with excellent value with the home team. Both teams are playing well. Since beating the defending champs, the Vikes have followed it up with back-to-back double-digit victories. Meanwhile, the Saints eked out a 1-point win (at Baltimore) last week and have now won five straight. That said, this will mark the Saints' fourth road game in their past five games. Thats a tough stretch and I expect it to catch up to them at this very hostile environment. While the Saints are still 9-10 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons, the Vikes are 15-5 here at home. Its worth noting that the Vikes are also 13-7 ATS the last 20 times that they played a game with a line in the -3 to +3 range. Expect home field and their superior defense to make the difference, in a statement win. 

I'm playing on MONTREAL (10* GAME OF WEEK). As you may be aware, these teams just met at Toronto last week. Playing their home finale, the Argos won that one by four points. With both teams playing out the string, motivation becomes key. The team that wants it more has an excellent chance at victory. Playing at home with revenge from last week and looking to get Manziel a win, I expect the Als to be the team which wants it more. While the "W's" haven't been there, Manziel has been making major strides. You may recall that Toronto QB Franklin got the better of Manziel in 2013 SEC showdown between Missouri and A&M. Its taken five years but Manziel finally gets some payback.

I'm playing on STANFORD (10* PAC 12 GOM). The Cougars have been rolling but I expect the Cardinal to finally slow them down on Saturday. I won with the Cardinal in their last game, a road win at ASU. I really like the fact that game was on a Thursday, giving Stanford some extra time for this big showdown. This is a game that Stanford has had circled as the Cougars beat them each of the last two seasons, blowing them out here in 2016. The Cardinal haven't forgotten. While the Cougars are allowing 31.7 ppg on the road this season, the Cardinal are allowing 15.7 pgg at home. Playing at home, where they're 17-8 ATS the last 25 times that the O/U line ranged from 52.5 to 56, expect them to finish on top, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* GAME OF MONTH). These teams just faced each other, at Chicago, on Wednesday. Playing on their home floor, the Bulls were able to eke out a 2-point win. All is not currently well in Chicago, however, as the team is dealing with some key injuries. Markkenen, Dunn and Valentine are all very important for this team and all remain out. The Bulls were able to overcome those injuries at home. On the road, against a determined revenge-minded opponent, is going to prove a different story.Now, Portis is also out. That leaves them extremely thin in the frontcourt. Parker will be expected to do a lot but he's not 100% healthy himeself and is hardly up to the task. Hutchinson not likely to cut it either. At 2-3, Charlotte coach James Borrego knows his team can ill afford another loss here. Off Wednesday's loss, Borrego commented: "My tendency right now is to go make changes all over the place. But we've got to stay disciplined, we've got to stay poised." The Hornets have had real trouble at Chicago. They beat the Bulls by 15 the last meeting here though. Expect Borrego's team to "stay poised" en route to another double-digit blowout win. 

I'm playing on FAU (10* VIOLATOR). Its been a tough start to the season for the Owls. However, the reality is that they've had an extremely difficult schedule. They've only played three home games and they won all three of them. The four road games came at places like Oklahoma and UCF. A home game against LA Tech, a team the Owls hammered 48-23 last November, figures to be just what the doctor ordered. While the Bulldogs are off a win, note that they're already 0-2 ATS when off a conference victory. Both teams obviously need the win but the Owls arguably need it more. This is an FAU team which absolutely still expects to get to a bowl but one which knows it needs to take care of business in this game to make that goal realistic. Expect a win and cover.

I'm playing PHILADELPHIA on the puck-line (10* PUCK LINE GAME OF WEEK, +1.5 goals.) Games between these teams are typically tight. The last two meetings were both decided by a single goal. Going back further finds that eight of the past 10 meetings were 1-goal games. While I like the Flyers' chances of an outright upset, I sense another tight one upcoming; the extra +1.5 goals may well prove critical. The Flyers have had a couple of days off, since losing against Colorado. They've done a good job in bouncing back with a victory off each of their last three losses. I won with the Bruins in their last game, a 4-1 win at Ottawa, as I knew they would be desperate to avoid a winless road trip. This is their first game back from that trip, one which began on the West Coast, and that can be tough. Expect the Flyers to give them all they can handle. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Hawks opened the season with three straight road games. They lost the first two, badly. However, they closed the trip with a blowout win at Cleveland, which gives them some positive momentum coming into their home opener. The Hawks have had the past two days off and they also get the next two days off. The Mavs lost their lone road game, at Phoenix, by 21 points. They're without Nowitzki and they'll also be without Harrison Barnes, a significant blow. Additionally, Devin Harris is expected to remain out. Meanwhile, the Hawks are expecting to have Dedmon in the lineup for the first time this season. Even if his minutes are limited, as they'll likely be, he adds depth in the paint to complent Len. The Hawks have owned the Mavs over the past five years including another sweep last season. More of the same Wednesday.

I'm playing on GS (10* VIOLATOR). Off last night's loss, the champs are going to be in an angry mood tonight. The young Suns are the perfect opponent to take their anger out on. The Warriors have won all eight meetings against the Suns the past couple of seasons. A look at last season's four games, all played in 2018, shows that all four resulted in double-digit victories. The Warriors won the two games at Oakland by an average of 28 points. (Including those victories, the Warriors are 47-3 SU the last 50 times that they were home favorites of -12.5 or more.) Note that they were laying -15 and -16 for those games and that we're getting a better line to work with, due to the b2b spot. With the champs looking to flex their muscles with a statement bounceback win, I'm expecting this one to be one-sided the entire way. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Neither team is where it wants to be, obviously. However, while the Giants' season is already a write-off, the Falcons still believe in theirs. Though they have an extremely difficult road ahead of them, the Falcons kept their hopes alive by beating the Bucs last week. They've got a more balanced and far more dangerous offense than do the Giants. While NY averages 19.5 ppg, 27th best in the NFL entering Sunday, the Falcons average 27.8, 9th best. At home, that number climbs to an impressive 34.5 points per game. With last week's win, the Falcons are 14-8 here the past 2+ seasons. That includes a 5-2 ATS mark as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. During the same span, the Giants were 3-6 ATS (1-8 SU) as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range, 5-14 on the road overall. While the Falcons have the type of offense capable of coming from behind, the same cannot necessarily be said of the Giants. Playing at home and trying to climb back into playoff relevance, expect the Falcons to put up another fairly big number and for the Giants to be unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on TB (10* NON-CONF GAME OF YEAR). While I successfully played against thm at Atlanta, the Bucs still played well in that game. Playing on the road against a desperate team, they refused to go away and took the game down to the wire. Now, they step down in class and return home. Cleveland has already shown its improved but last week's blowout loss to the Chargers revealed that there are still plenty of issuses. Still winless on the road, all the OT games have caught up. Note that Cleveland is 2-32 SU and 10-24 ATS its last 34 as an underdog. In fairness to the Bucs, they've played an awfully tough schedule. Three of their first five games were on the road (New Orleans, Chicago and Atlanta) and their two home games were against the defending Super Bowl champs, who they beat, and the Steelers, who they nearly beat. A home game against the Browns may not be as "easy" as it once was but its still far more appealing than hosting the likes of the Steelers or Eagles. Expect the Bucs, who know they have two road games on deck, to take advantage of the winnable home game, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). Off a 1-point loss in their opener, knowing that they embark on a tough 5-game road trip out West immediately following this game and facing the team which eliminated them from last season's playoffs, the Wizards are going to be extremely motivated to win this one. In addition to having the venue in their favor, they've got the schedule working for them. While the Wizards had yesterday off, the Raptors are off a hard-fought win over the Celtics last night and are now playing their third game in four days. Even with the loss in the opener, the Wizards are 61-31 on this floor the past couple of seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on MISSOURI (10* GAME OF MONTH). This game was already going to be very tough for the Tigers to win. However, last week's result will make it even more so. Memphis is off a heart-breaking loss against UCF. The Tigers were up big at halftime, squandered the lead, had a chance to win, only to lose 31-30. As quarterback Brady White said: "This one hurts, for sure. We should've won that game." That very likely killed Memphis' hopes of competing for a division title. Those type of losses often take a toll and I expect that to be the case here. Missouri is off games against Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama, the last two of which came on the road. A break from SEC play will provide a welcome relief. Missouri is already 2-0 SU/ATS as a home favorite this season, winning by 37 and 27. Expect another double-digit win on Saturday afternoon.

I'm playing on STANFORD (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Cardinal had to fight hard to come back to beat Oregon. That victory seemed to take a toll, as they were hammered at Notre Dame the next week. Their undefeated record snapped, they followed it up with another loss, vs Utah, after that. Having had some time off, since those back-to-back losses, I expect the Cardinal to respond with their best effort on Thursday night. Stanford is 7-1 SU (5-2-1 ATS) its last eight as a road favorite. That includes a 3-0-1 ATS mark as a road favorite of three or fewer points. The Cardinal have suffered b2b SU losses (in the same season) twice over the past couple of seasons. Each time, they responded by winning and covering their next game, a 17-10 win at Notre Dame and a 58-34 win against UCLA. Expect them to bounce back with another win and cover Thursday. 

I'm playing on INDIANA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pacers were a combined 58-29 here the past two seasons, 29-15 last year. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, were a combined 25-60 on the road, a dismal 6-35 last year. Given that the Pacers are projected to win about 47.5 games this season, compared to 34.5 for Memphis, this line could easily be higher. While both games were close, the Pacers swept the Grizzlies last season. Expect them to finish on top once again, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on SF (10* MAIN EVENT). While they may only have one win, the 49ers have been competitive in every game. They're worst loss came by 11 and that was at KC. (They're outgaining opponents by a 378-348 average on the season.) Meanwhile, the Packers actually only have one victory by more than a point - and that was against Buffalo. Expect the 49ers to come to play, giving their hosts all they can handle and improving to 32-10 ATS their last 42 under the Monday night lights. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* GAME OF MONTH). Needless to say, with a 1-4 record and with Carolina and New Orleans sitting at 3-1 and 4-1, this is a must-win game for the Falcons. The Bucs came back down to earth in a big way last time out (48-10 loss) and now Winston will be making his first start of the season. While they don't count close losses in the standings, it should be noted that Atlanta could easily have a better record and is still a talented team. The Falcons are still 13-8 here the past 2+ seasons, the Bucs are still 7-11 on the road, during the same period. The Falcons won both meetings against the Bucs last season, including a 34-20 victory in the game here at Atlanta. Note that the Falcons were laying -10 for that one. While salvaging the season isn't going to be at all easy, I don't believe that Falcons are ready to pack it in quite yet. Expect their best effort to lead to a win and cover. 

I'm playing on USC (10* GAME OF WEEK). Colorado comes in with the higher ranking but the Trojans are favored for good reason. While all they can do is beat who the teams that they face, a closer look at the Buffaloes' schedule shows that its been very soft. The only true road game was at Nebraska and the Huskers have been a mess. The other games came against Colorado State, UCLA, New Hampshire and Arizona State - none of which have the type of talent that USC does. The Trojans are still undefeated at home and they're off back-to-back victories of their own. Those two wins (vs. Washington State and at Arizona) are both arguably more impressive than anything Colorado has accomplished. The Trojans won at 14 at Colorado this season. Look for the Buffaloes, just 4-9 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range, to come back down to earth.

I'm playing on EDMONTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Eskimos cost me last week, a game that they were covering the entire way, until the final couple of minutes. However, that won't prevent me from backing them again here. A look at eight meetings between these teams, here at Edmonton, reveals that the Eskimos were 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. They were favored by an average of eight points in those games. This week's line is a lot lower and I believe thats providing excellent value. Eskimos bounce back. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (10* PERS FAV). Since losing its opening game to Stanford, San Diego State has been rolling. The Aztecs have now won four straight, most recently beating Boise, on the blue turf, last Saturday. That was a huge win for them and opened the door for a run at a New Year's Day Bowl. They're not going to let a weaker team like Air Force slow their momentum. Indeed, the Aztecs are 9-1 ATS (10-0 SU) their last 10 against sub-500 teams. While the Falcons are off a win over Navy, they'd lost their previous three. Though they, of course, do it differently, the Falcons are a team which runs the ball. Thats noteworthy as the Aztec defense was absolutely dominant against the Boise ground game.  The Broncos managed just 51 rushing yards on 36 attempts. The Aztecs also successfully slowed the Falcons ground game (220 yards) in winning last season's game. Including that result, the Falcons are just 4-14 ATS their last 18 in conference play. Expect the short turn-around to work in the Aztecs' favor, as they ultimately pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). Brees should get his record but the Skins will be the team which comes away with the cover. Last season's meeting here was decided by three points (in OT) and the Skins are arguably a stronger team now. Note that Washington led by double-digits, entering the fourth quarter. The Saints have only one victory by more than six points through this season's first four games. They're just 1-1 here at home and that win came by three points, against Cleveland. The Skins, 2-0 SU off their bye week the past two seasons, have had extra time to prepare. They won their only road game this season and check in off a victory against Green Bay. Like last season, this one may well come down to the wire. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on EDMONTON. After getting embarrassed (30-3) in their last game, the Eskimos are going to be in an angry mood here. They've had an extra day of rest than the Riders, who squeaked past the Als, at Montreal, the next day. When these teams met in August, at Edmonton, the Eskimos were favored by seven points. (Edmonton won by 7.) While the venue has obviously changed, I don't think that's enough to warrant such a big difference in the line. The Eskimos have won three of their last five visits here outright. Both losses came by seven or less, one by just a field goal. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). As you're surely aware, the Raiders finaly got a win last week. However, that was at home, against Cleveland. Now, they're on the road against an arguably much tougher opponent. The Raiders' last visit here resulted in a 30-10 win for the Chagers. While the Chargers are only 2-2 and 1-3 ATS, their two losses came against the Rams and Chiefs, a pair of high level teams. When facing weaker opposition, they've taken care of business. While the Raiders have averaged 19.5 pgg in their two road games, the Chargers average 28.5 ppg and 454.5 ypg here at home. Factoring in that that the Raiders also allow more than 30 ppg and more than 400 ypg, when playing on the road, we can expect the Chargers to put up another fairly big number. Like last year, the Raiders will be unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Bills are going to be a desperate team here. At 1-3 and with a pair or road games up next, they know that they need to take care of business here. The Titans may be ripe for a letdown as they are off an emotional OT win over the defending champs. Note that ALL three of their victories have come by fewer than four points. In other words, they have yet to win a game by more than field goal this season. True, the Bills have gotten off to a tough start. However, the blowout victory at Minnesota shows that they're capable and I feel that this is a team they'll match up well against. With the Titans just 2-7-1 ATS (4-6 SU) the last 10 times that they were off two or more consecutive victories, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). I believe that this is going to prove a tough spot for Northwestern. The Wildcats very nearly upset Michigan last week. However, after leaving it all on the field, they ended up coming up a little short, Michigan winning 20-17. After coming so close to scoring the monumental upset, only to come up short, I expect them to have trouble focusing on the task at hand here. The Spartans are coming in with payback on their minds, after losing last season's meeting in triple-OT and after the Wildcats upset them here the previous season. The Spartans are highly experienced on both sides of the ball and they haven't forgotten those games. Expect a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE (10* BEST BET). The Cardinals' tough (2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS) start has helped in providing us with excellent value. However, lets not forget that the Cards were underdogs for all three of the games that they dropped, so the losses weren't entirely unexpected. The Jackets are also 2-3 and they have yet to win on the road. In fact, including their losses at USF and Pittsburgh, the Jackets are 0-4 SU/ATS the past four times that they were laying points on the road. The Cards are 25-14 ATS the last 39 times that they were off b2b consecutive SU losses. 

I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Pats got going in a big way last week and I expect them to carry the momentum into Thursday's game. Playing at home, in b2b weeks, when playing on a short week is an advantage. The Colts, meanwhile, will be playing their third road game in the past four weeks and they're coming off a hard-fought OT loss against Houston. That defeat was both emotionally and physically draining and its going to be tough to bounce back quickly against a suddenly surging New England team which is going to be looking to make a statement on National TV. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Chiefs have obviously looked pretty good, I feel that the value lies with the home team. While both games were close, lets not forget that the Broncos are 2-0 on this field. Speaking of close games, note that both of the games here the last two seasons were decided by three points. The Chiefs are already playing their third road game in the first four weeks. Expect it to catch up to them, the home underdog Broncos taking the game down to the wire and earning AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. (10* AFC GOM) While they may have lost two in a row, bettors know better than to count out the Patriots. Thats why they're stil healthy favorites here, despite Miami boasting the superior record. The Pats are favored for good reason, however, and I expect them to do more than enough to bring home the cash. At 3-0, the Dolphins have over-achieved. Note that they're actually getting outgained by an average of 377 to 324, while also getting beaten in terms of time of possession and first downs. A closer look shows that the schedule-maker has also arguably helped the Dolphins quite a bit, too. Their three games came against the Titans, Jets and Raiders, two of the three coming at home. Those three teams are a combined 3-6, entering Week 4. They were a combined 20-27 last season. The Pats, on the other hand, have played two of three on the road and their games came against the Jags, Lions and Texans. Most would agree that the Pats have faced the tough opponents. New England did take care of business in its lone home game, a 7-point with over the Texans. With that victory, the Pats are 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. They beat the Dolphins by 18 here last season, after beating them by seven here the previous season. Expect more of the same on Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on CAL (10* GAME OF YEAR). The Ducks hammered the Bears last season. However, everything sets up for the Bears to get some payback. While the Ducks have indeed won eight of the past nine meetings, the Bears did take the most recent here in Berkeley. You may recall that one, as it was a double-OT (52-49) thriller. 

Speaking of "OT games," I won with the Ducks "over" the total in last Saturday's game against Stanford. (Top rated CFB Totals now 5-0 YTD.) Not only did the game finish comfortably above the total, it served another purpose. It helped knock the wind out of the Ducks. If you only watched the first portion of that game, you would have seen an Oregon team which was dominating. Announcers were proclaiming that "this was a new breed of Duck," one that was now pushing around Stanford, instead of being pushed. In the end, however, the Cardinal still finished on top, a 38-31 comeback OT win. (In case, you missed it, the Ducks were up 24-7. Stanford recovered a fumble with 52 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter to allow for the tying FG to force OT.)

Thats the type of result that can and will take a toll on a team. The Ducks had indeed been playing great and they left it all on the field. Stanford was a team which had crushed them twice in a row and they were so close to settling the score. To get that close, only to come up short, is tough to recover from. Thats particularly true given that the Ducks were thinking "undefeated season" if they could beat Stanford too. Broken dreams are most difficult to overcome when so close to actually happening.

Cal, meanwhile, checks in off a bye week. While the Ducks were involved in a tough physical OT loss, the Bears were resting, watching and game-planning. Not only are they fresh, but they're going to come in confident. The Bears began the season by beating UNC by seven. Next, they went on the road and won at BYU. Thats no small feat when considering that BYU is now 3-1, including road wins at Arizona and Wisconsin. 

This is an experienced Cal team, too; the Bears brought back 18 starters from last season. They've been tough at home in recent seasons and they fully understand the magnitude of this game and the opportunity which is in front of them. The Ducks have struggled on the road in recent seasons and are just 1-4 ATS their last five as a road favorite. I feel the devastating Stanford loss is going to have a big effect and I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* BEST BET). Off their (29-29) showdown with the Packers and perhaps looking ahead to this game, the Vikings didn't show up last week against Buffalo. Favored by more than two touchdowns, against a team which had been outscored by a 78-23 margin through its first two games, the Vikings got destroyed. Now, they take on a red hot Rams team. While I respect the Rams, I believe that the Vikes will bounce back with their best effort. The Vikings dominated the Rams last season, outgaining them by a 171-45 margin on the ground, while also beating them through the air. They had a huge advantage in time of possession and had nearly twice as many first downs. While the Rams are arguably stronger than last season, the Vikes also arguably have a better lineup than last season. Expect the Rams to bring out their best, as they put it all together en route to AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* DOG OF WEEK). The Cards (0-2) need this one more and I expect that to show on the field. The Bears have been involved in a pair of emotional games to start the season and are playing on a short week. Even with the cover (still lost by one) at Lambeau, the Bears are  The Cards are a perfect 4-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off two or more consecutive losses. Expect them to improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover on Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* GAME OF YEAR). I won with the Panthers in their opener and then successfully played against them in their second game, at Atlanta. Really, they played well in both games. The same can be said for the Bengals, who check in off a big divisional win over the Ravens and with a 2-0 record overall. Expect them to come back to earth here though. The fact that the win over the Ravens was on National TV has everybody jumping on board the Bengal band wagon. This is still a very tough place to play though and, Week 1 at Indy notwithstanding, the Bengals have been terrible on the road for as long as anyone can remember. Including the Week 1 victory, a game in which they dominated the Cowboys defensively, the Panthers are 11-6 at home the past two seasons. During the same span, the Bengals are only 6-11 on the road. While the Panthers have a balanced run/pass attack, Newton threw for 335 yards (32-of-45) and three TD's (105.3 passer rating) last week and he's going to be licking his chops for this week's matchup. Hidden behind their 2-0 record, the Bengals have allowed 332 passing yards per game. Yes, part of that comes from the fact that they've been playing ahead and opposing teams have been forced to throw. However, at more than 400 yards allowed per game, I feel it'll catch up to them here. Carolina wins, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on WINNIPEG (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Als had a little spark but the Lions snuffed that out last week. Now, they turn to Manziel. However, he's in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Bombers are going to be in a foul mood and the Als are the perfect opponent to take it out on. Manziel may come with a big name but he's just 27 of 46 with FOUR interceptions in two CFL starts so far. Expect things to get worse for the former college star, before they get better. Bombers roll. 

I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* MAIN EVENT). After a horrible start, the Owls got back on track in a big way last time out, going on the road and blowing out Maryland. That'll give them confidence here. Tulsa, on the other hand, has gone the opposite direction, losing its last two. Keep in mind that the Golden Hurricane were only 2-10 last season. While I do believe that they're improved, they haven't improved enough. Temple pulls away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE (10* GAME OF WEEK). While I played against the Hawks, I'm coming right back with them this week. The Bears came out and showed everyone that they aren't going to be a pushover last week, jumping all over the Packers out of the gate. In the end, however, Green Bay still managed to come away with the SU victory. That type of heart-breaking loss figures to be difficult for the Bears to immediately bounce back from. Now the favorite, the Bears find themselves in pretty unfamiliar territory here. Note that they're just 1-5 ATS (and SU!) the last six times that they were laying points. Both teams saw their Week 1 games decided by three or fewer points. I could also see this one easily coming down to the wire and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing ST. LOUIS on the run-line (10* MAIN EVENT, +1.5 runs) The Cards got pounded yesterday. Desperate to right the ship, I expect a much better effort Sunday night. Wainwright is back from the DL and now has a start under his belt. Though he admittedly wasn't great in his return, I liked the fact that Wainwright retired the final eight batters he faced and also that he didn't walk a batter. While we can't expect a complete game from him, lets keep in mind that this guy (147-84, 3.31 ERA) knows how to win and knows the importance of getting his team back on track. His last start against the Dodgers saw him toss six shutout innings in a 2-0 win. His previous two against LA were both decided by a single run. He's got a 2.69 ERA in 15 appearances (12 starts) for his career. While he was 8-1 with a 2.08 ERA prior to the All Star Break, Stripling is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in five appearances (4 starts) since. At this low price, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs with the desperate home team. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played on CAROLINA last week while also successfully played against Atlanta. As you know, the Falcons were at Philadelphia while the Panthers were hosting the Cowboys. The shoe is on the other foot this week, however, as Atlanta is now at home while Carolina is on the road. Thats pretty signficant for both teams. While Carolina is tough to beat a home, the Panthers aren't the same team on the road. They're just 7-9 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons, just 1-4 SU when listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. Not surprisingly, the Panthers eked out a victory when they hosted the Falcons last season but lost 22-10 here at Atlanta. Including those results, they're only 4-9 SU/ATS their last 13 divisional games. The Falcons, meanwhile, have won nine of their last 12 within the division. Expect them to improve on those stats Sunday afternoon, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (10* BEST BET). We're getting excellent value with the Aztecs for a number of reasons. A few of those reasons include: 1. The Sun Devils are 2-0 and off an upset of Michigan State causing bettors to jump on the bandwagon. 2. The Sun Devils are playing with 'revenge' from last year, an angle the betting public typically favors. 3. The Aztecs are without their starting QB. None of those reasons are enough to cause me to believe Arizona State can even win this game, let alone cover a pointspread which has continued to get bigger since its opener. The revenge angle can sometimes be a motivating factor but its not going to come into play for a team celebrating last week's upset and looking ahead to conference play, which I feel makes them ripe for an upset. The Aztecs dominated last year's game on the ground, so the loss of Chapman isn't a huge concern. In fact, they weren't really playing that well with Chapman in the game last week and only pulled away after he went down. Agnew got some much needed game-experience, going 11-for-17. While the Aztecs have won 11 of 14 here, ASU, which was 3-8 on the road the past two seasons, is just 1-4 ATS the past five times it was off two or more consecutive victories. I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on FSU (10* ACC GAME OF YEAR). Off their opening loss against V-Tech, the Noles came out flat against an inferior opponent last week, winning but not covering. They'll be fully "recovered" now though and I expect them to take out their frustrations on the Orange. The Noles have long thrived as small road favorites and they've dominated Syracuse for years. They won 45-14 last time here, while laying -23 points. The Orange have indeed improved, but not by enough. Expect another win and cover for the determined visitors.

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). While I respect the Rams, I don't think the Raiders are being given enough credit by the betting public here. Sure, it would be nice to have Mack back on defense. However, is departure doesn't immediately make them terrible, the way so many seem to be claiming and expecting. While the Raiders defense being without Mack will dominate the headlines, few will mention that the Rams offense will be without starting right guard Brown, as he's out due to suspension. Nor will they consider that the offense may well be rusty, due to the starters sitting during the preseason. Gruden is going to have his team fired up, as will the crowd. McVay got much of his coaching philosophy from Gruden and considers him a mentor. Expect the "mentor" to earn AT LEAST a cover against the "student" on Monday night. 

I'm playing on GREEN BAY (10* MAIN EVENT). The Packers have been beating up on the Bears for a long time now, particularly here at Lambeau. Last season's game here saw GB win by a score of 35-14. The previous season, they won 26-10 here. While some of the other faces have come and gone, so long as McCarthy and Rodgers are running the show, we should be able to expect another big win on Sunday night. The Bears managed only 14.5 points per road game last season. They're 4-8 ATS (2-10 SU) the past dozen times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. The Packers, meanwhile, are 7-2 ATS (8-1 SU) the past nine times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Expect Rodgers and co. to improve on those stats Sunday night. 

I'm playing on RICE (10* BEST BET). This line is far too big, in my opinion. Its an over-reaction to last week's results. Hawaii won big while Rice was blown out. However, a closer look reveals that the Owls won their first game and though they lost big, they still covered. Hawaii does deserve some credit for its 2-0 start. However, now the inexperienced Warriors go from being the big underdog to being the big favorite, a role they're unfamiliar with. Expect the Owls to give them all they can handle. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). The "neutral site" venue is AT&T Stadium which gives the Tigers a slight home field edge, due to crowd support. However, it won't be enough to overcome the advantages which the Hurricanes have working in their favor. The Canes are experienced on both sides of the ball and represent Richt's best team since coming here. The Tigers suffered pretty heavy losses on both sides of the ball. They're learning a new offense after losing last season's QB, top two RB's and top two WR's. Expect more experienced Miami to pull away for a win and cover.

I'm playing on WINNIPEG (10* GAME OF YEAR). While the Riders have certainly improved over the past several weeks, I still believe that the Bombers are the stronger of these two teams. They've won five of the last six meetings and hammered the Riders by a 48-28 score in the last meeting here. Yes, I did successfully go against Winnipeg last week. However, that was at Calgary, against the best team in the league. The final score was a little misleading too, as Winnipeg led much of the way, giving the Stamps all they can handle. I was impressed with the Bombers' play and felt somewhat fortunate to come away with the win. Off back-to-back losses, they're going to be extremely hungry here. In a game where I expect the underdog to win outright, I'll happily grab the points. 

I'm playing on BYU (10* BEST BET). We're getting plenty of points with what I feel is an under-valued and extremely motivated Cougar team. BYU brings back plenty of starters on both sides of the ball and is determined to get rid of the bad taste from last year. While beating Arizona isn't going to be easy, the Wildcats do have a new coach. Sumlin brings an impressive record with him and he's admittedly got plenty work with. success isn't always immediate and I have expect him to have his hands full here. I especially like the matchup of the experience BYU defensive line vs. the inexperienced Arizona offensive line. The Cougars have long had success in season openers and I expect them to give their hosts all they can handle. 

I'm playing TEXAS on the run-line (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs) While I actually like the Rangers to win this one outright, a close one won't surprise. Therefore, I feel that getting an extra +1.5 runs, at this reasonable a price, is the way to go. Gallardo has been solid for quite some time now. He's 4-2 with a 3.89 ERA his last seven outings. Barrios hasn't been as sharp, he had a poor 4.74 ERA in August. While the Twins are 5-8 in Barrios' road starts, Gallardo, who has had some success vs. the Twins, has seen his team go 6-1 when he starts at home. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" here.

I'm playing on WISCONSIN (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Badgers have won their last 22 opening season Camp Randall games. Those victories have come by an average of 26 points. This season's opener figures to be even more lopsided. At first glance, this might seem like a big number to be laying against a WKU team which was a combined 23-5 in 2015/16. However, the Hilltoppers took a step back last year and this season is likely going to be even tougher. Certainly, it won't start as well. (Last season, the Hilltoppers were -36 point favorites in their opener against Eastern Kentucky. They won by 14.) The Badgers are off a dominant season and return nine starters on offense. They're not going to be stopped, nor will they let up. The Hilltoppers, who return only three starters on offense, aren't equipped to trade punches, or to try and catch up. The Badgers are thinking National Title this season. Expect them to make a statement, kicking things off by destroying their inferior opponent. 

I'm playing on DALLAS (10* BEST BET). My "August Game Of The Month" was on Arizona (a winner) when the Cards beat the Rams back on Aug. 11th. Including that victory, the Cards are 2-0 while the Cowboys are 0-2. I believe that winless record is going to provide the Cowboys with some extra motivation here. True, the Cowboys have already lost some players to injury and there's some speculation that they'll be cautious as a result. (That sentiment is reflected in the fact that we're getting points with them.) That said, Garrett noted the following: "We believe it's important to play guys at some point in the preseason to get them ready for regular-season action. We feel like they're more compromised in the regular season if they don't play at all in the preseason." Recall that Garrett's Cowboys beat the Raiders 24-20 in Week 3 of last year's preseason. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on CALGARY (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). Both these teams were upset in their last game. I expect the Stamps to be the team which bounces back with a big win. The Stamps, who remain the class of the league, have dominanted the Bombers over the years. Indeed, even with a loss here last November, they've won 17 of the last 19 meetings. Three of Calgary's last four victories against Winnipeg have come by double-digits. Overall, the Stamps have won five straight at home. The last four of those victories came by a minimum of nine points and by an average of 12.5. Expect another double-digit win on Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* GAME OF WEEK). While I won with the Bears last week, I like them AT LEAST as much again here. When I played against the Bears in Week 1, I noted that this was the game that they were going to care about the most. Here was an excerpt from that H.O.F. game writeup:

"The Bears have a new coach in Matt Nagy. While its true that new coaches sometimes like to "change the culture" by establshing a winning mentality out of the gate, I don't believe that Nagy is too concerned with that. If he is going to take any preseason game seriously, it'll be the one where they face the Chiefs, his former team."

The Chiefs game has finally arrived and I still believe Nagy is going to be treating it seriously. Expect his team to emerge victorious. 

I'm playing BALTIMORE on the run-line (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs.) Bundy has made three career starts at Toronto. The O's won one of them by an 11-4 margin. The other two both resulted in a 1-run wins for the Jays. In other words, if getting an extra +1.5 runs as he is here, he's 3-0 here in Canada. For this career overall, Bundy has a stellar 2.61 ERA and 0.903 WHIP in five starts vs. the Jays. Gaviglio has only made one start vs. Baltimore and that saw him serve up a pair of HRs and four runs overall. That was one of them games that Bundy started. Neither starter factored in the decision; the Jays winning by a single run. While they did manage to win by two runs yesterday, the Jays' previous 10 games had seen them go 3-7 with ALL three of the wins coming by a single run. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" from the visitors in this one. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BEST BET). While I went against the Bears in their opener, I really like them here. The Bears will be playing their third game (due to having played in the HOF Game) compared to Denver playing its second. That should provide an advantage in itself. The fact that they lost both games will provide some added motivation. Keep in mind that both losses came by a combined four points. The Bears have been without their primary offensive weapons. Top receivers Robinson and Gabriel will see action for the first time, while top back Howard should as well. After their last practice, QB Trubisky noted that the Bears offense had taken a big step forward. While I like their chances of an outright win, I expect AT LEAST a cover.

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* GAME OF WEEK). Getting more than a field goal, I feel that the Dolphins are offering us excellent value. Miami, which lost its opener by two points, has a trio of capable backups all looking to improve their status behind starter Tannehill. Fales started as #3 but is looking to supplant Osweiler for the #2 job. Bryce Petty is also capable. I also like the level of seriousness that we're seeing from Tannehill, who recently called out a rookie running back, telling him to leave the huddle, for missing a block in practice. Miami players are well aware that projections on their season are pretty bleak. Expect them to treat this one a little more seriously than their hosts, leading to AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* GAME OF MONTH). Bruce Arians didn't typically treat the preseason too seriously; the Cards were 7-11 (SU) in NFLX action the past four seasons. Arians is gone now though, replaced by Steve Wilks. The new coach, Wilks knows he has big shoes to fill, as Arians was well-liked by many fans. With the team coming off another tough season, what better way to win over some fans by kicking off the (pre) season with a victory. While he won't have had time to implement all his ideas and systems, I do expect Wilks to demand the most from his players here. Expect them to kick off the new era with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on the NEW YORK JETS (10* MAIN EVENT). The Jets are a modest 6-6 (SU) in the preason, under Bowles. However, a closer look reveals that they're a perfect 3-0 in their preseason home opener, a game where he tends to emphasize winning. Each victory came by greater than a field goal, too. Last season's NFLX opener came in Week 1, resulting in a 7-3 victory over the Titans. The previous season's opener also came in Week 1, a 17-13 win over the Jags. In 2015, the Jets' preseason home opener came in Week 2 against these same Falcons. Bowles' team finished on top by a score of 30-22. The Jets were 6-10 in the regular season last year compared to Atlanta's 10-6 mark. That gives them far more to prove. Expect Bowles to move to 4-0 in preseason home openers. 

I'm playing on EDMONTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Eskimos have a lot going for them. In addition to being the superior team and playing at home, they come in with positive momentum and confidence. Their last game was a blowout win over Montreal. Saskatchewan, meanwhile, was humbled by Calgary. Making matters worse for the Riders, they'll be playing on a short week, the Eskimos playing with two more day's worth of rest than them. Expect a blowout.

I'm playing on BALTIMORE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Bears have a new coach in Matt Nagy. While its true that new coaches sometimes like to "change the culture" by establshing a winning mentality out of the gate, I don't believe that Nagy is too concerned with that. If he is going to take any preseason game seriously, it'll be the one where they face the Chiefs, his former team. The Ravens are 28-12 in 40 preseason games under Harbaugh including a perfect 8-0 the past two years. In fact, they've gone 4-0 in three of their past four preseason campaigns. Last preseason, they outscored teams by a commanding 81-32 margin. Expect more of the same on Thursday.

I'm playing on HAMILTON (10* ANNIHILATOR). After getting upset by the Riders here last week, the Ti-Cats are going to be in an angry mood. They've had an extra day to get ready for this one, compared to Ottawa, while also allowing their anger to build. Ottawa beat the 'Cats by one here (30-29) two meetings ago and then hammered them (37-18) here last August. (They proceeded to split a pair of games at Ottawa.) Enough's enough. Its payback time. Hamilton rolls. 

I'm playing on HAMILTON (10* GAME OF MONTH). While I won with the Riders in the meeting two weeks ago, this is still a team with plenty of problems. Having been upset in that one and having also been swept by the Riders last season, the revenge-minded Ti-Cats are coming in with a score to settle. Playing on their homefield, where they've won their last two games by a combined score of 64-17, they're more than capable of blowing out a Rider team which lost its lone road game by a score of 40-17. Expect a double-digit victory for the home team.

I'm playing FRANCE on the 2-way line (10* MAIN EVENT, no draw option). France has been the strongest team in this tournament, knocking off plenty of elite teams along the way. While this is a young team, the French have been here three times in the past 20 years. A good portion of the core of the team lost in the Euro Finals (in Paris) two years ago and have learned from that. Sometimes, a team needs to lose before it can win and I believe thats the case with this French team. They've got an oustanding goalie and are extremely stingy on defense. On offense, they've got explosive playermakers with speed and the ability to put the ball in the net. Expect them to emerge as champs.

I'm playing CLEVELAND on the run-line (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs) In a game where runs may well be at a premium, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 with Kluber and co. For the season, Kluber is 7-1 with a 1.43 ERA and 0.797 WHIP in 10 home starts. (Severino is 6-2 with a 2.65 ERA in nine road starts.) Severino served up two home runs in five innings at Toronto in his last start. Kluber, on the other hand, tossed seven shutout innings. The Indians got back on track in a big way (19-4 win) yesterday. Expect them to ride the momentum into this evening's opener against the Yankees, en route to AT LEAST a "run-line cover."

I'm playing on BC (10* GAME OF WEEK). Nine straight meetings between these teams have been decided by 10 or fewer points. The average margin of victory in those games was just 4.67 points. A closer look reveals that only one of those nine games resulted in a Winnipeg victory of greater than six points and that came way back in 2015. While the Bombers have historically struggled when laying points, the Lions have long thrived as road underdogs of this size. In fact, they're a profitable 38-20 ATS the past 58 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. 

I'm playing on BELGIUM at +0.5 goals. The winner of this game has an excellent shot at emerging as champion. Its got all the makings of a classic. As per usual, Brazil is very strong. However, the same can be said of this Belgium team, the strongest their country has ever produced. Having "come back from the dead" in the last game, the Belgians are arguably playing with a little less pressure, as they'd already been written off when down 2-0 late in the second half against Japan. While Brazil is of course in a different class than Japan, that comeback has Belgium believing it can do anything. Don't be surprised to see them shock the world here. 

I'm playing on SASKATCHEWAN (8* MAIN EVENT). Last week, I stated that the Riders shouldnt be laying double-digits. They lost outright. This week, however, they're getting more than a touchdown at the betting window. Thats a huge swing and I believe that the value has now shifted their way. The Riders are 3-0 the last three meetings with Hamilton and they were home underdogs for two of those. With the Ticats just 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -9.5 range and just 0-2 ATS the past two seasons, when off two or more consec. victories, I'm grabbing the generous points. 

I'm playing SWITZERLAND on the 2-way line. (10* GAME OF WEEK, no draw option) While the Swedes were impressive in group play, they are not as strong as the Swiss. Switzerland did what it was supposed to in the group stage and now get to face a very beatable Swedish side, one which will be missing Sebastian Larrson. Lets not forget that the Swiss entered the tournament as the #6 ranked team in the Wolrd while the Swedes were #24. I believe the Swiss are flying under the radar and providing us with excellent value. 

I'm taking the points with MONTREAL (10* GAME OF MONTH). I'm well aware that the Als were horrible last year and that they've struggled out of the gate again this year. However, Saskatchewan is a team which they can compete against; they've beaten the Riders three of the last four meetings. This time, they catch a Rider team which will be without its starting QB, as Zach Collaros is down with injury. Brandon Bridge did perform decently in his lone start last season. However, arguably a bigger concern is the Rider offensive line protecting him. We have to go back a number of years but the Riders are just 1-5 ATS their last six as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. Given the QB situation, I don't feel they should be laying double-digits. Expect the Als to give them all they can handle.