Sports Picks & Predictions

I’m playing on the Dallas Cowboys as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Dallas Cowboys have more to prove than most teams in Week 3 of the NFL preseason. Dallas watched league-leading rusher DeMarco Murray walk away this offseason, signing with Philadelphia, and put all its chips on an air-tight offensive line. The Cowboys didn’t land a big-name free agent running back or draft a potential franchise rusher in the draft, instead optioning to go with a rusher-by-committee approach. So far this preseason, Dallas has done squat with the football and totaled 13 points in its first two exhibition games. There’s a lot of work to be done before the regular season and the bulk of that comes Saturday versus Minnesota. Head coach Jason Garrett will give his starters plenty of time to find a rhythm on offense but the focus will be the ground game. Dallas was able to dominate the football last season, so we see the Cowboys with the edge in time of possession Saturday night. This is Minnesota’s third go-around this preseason, thanks to playing in the Hall of Fame Game. Things are much more settled for head coach Mike Zimmer, and he’s approaching this Week 3 game much like the previous preseason tilts. His starters are expected to see limited snaps, with most pulled before the half, and he’ll turn to his young and untested talents far earlier than most teams do in Week 3. That will lead to a mismatch in talent on the field, as Dallas needs this game much more than the Vikings.

I’m playing on Dallas as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I’m playing on the Calgary Stampeders as my 10* CFL Game of the Month.

The defending Grey Cup champions face western rivals the Winnipeg Bluebombers Saturday. Calgary is building momentum as the calendar inches closer to September, bringing a three-game winning streak into this weekend. The Stamps have owned the Bombers in recent seasons, winning 11 of their last 12 head-to-head meetings SU, and Calgary cashed in against conference opponents with a 7-3-1 ATS mark in its last 11 matchups with Western foes. Calgary’s defense, which ranks third in total yards allowed, sinks its teeth into Winnipeg quarterback Robert Marve, who is making just his second start of the season Saturday. The Bombers are without No. 1 pivot Drew Willy, who is out with a knee injury, leaving Marve to snap the team’s current funk. Winnipeg has dropped four of its last five contests heading into Saturday, with Marve going 18 for 29 for 201 yards with a touchdown and an interception in his debut against Toronto in Week 8. He’ll get a taste of the Grey Cup champs this weekend.

I’m playing on Calgary as my 10* CFL Game of the Month Saturday.  

I’m playing on the Jacksonville Jaguars as my 10* Friday Main Event.

Week 3 of the NFL preseason is the closest thing teams get to a regular season dress rehearsal, and the Jacksonville Jaguars will be pressing for a solid showing against the Detroit Lions Friday night. The Jaguars get a peek at their new running back when T.J. Yeldon makes his debut after missing time with the finger injury. Yeldon will be extra motivated to put on a good show since Lions RB and fellow rookie Ameer Abdullah has been the big star of the preseason. He’ll face a make shift Detroit defense which will be without its entire projected starting defensive line Friday. The Lions won’t play Ziggy Ansah, Jason Jones, Haloti Ngata or Caraun Reid, and have already battled through some defensive woes this preseason. Jacksonville has a new offense under coordinator Greg Olson and it seems to be working, with the Jags scoring 23 and 22 points in the first two preseason tilts. Now, with the starters expected to get extra time in Week 3 of the exhibition slate, we see more progress made with pieces falling into place.

I’m playing on Jacksonville as my 10* Friday Main Event.

CINCINNATI at TAMPA BAY 
I am playing on TAMPA BAY. Home teams were 13-6 straight up and against the spread heading into Friday night's preseason action in the NFL and I'm expecting home field to be an advantage this week for the Bucs. 
Tampa Bay can only go up after last week's awful 26-16 loss to Minnesota on the road. The Vikings racked up nearly 400 yards on offense and over 200 yards in returns in a game the Bucs didn't really have a chance in. 
I believe Tampa Bay will be much better this week in Jameis Winston's second game. I anticipate the first team offense playing the first half again like against the Vikings and I think we'll see a better performance this time around. 
Cincinnati really doesn't have a whole lot to play for in this game after looking sharp in a 23-10 win over the Giants last week. I wouldn't be surprised to see this team take it easy after that performance last week where Andy Dalton and the offense already looks like it's ready for the season to begin. 
The Bucs have covered the last four meetings between these teams, which includes a close loss in the regular season at Tampa Bay last year. 10* Game of the Month 

ST. LOUIS at TENNESSEE
I am playing on TENNESSEE. The Rams got off to a dismal start to the preseason in a 16-3 loss to the lowly Oakland Raiders last week and I don't see them rebounding with enough to pull out a win in Tennessee on Saturday. 
It will be the return of Jeff Fisher to St. Louis, so I think a little pride will be on the line for the Titans to pull out a win here also. Tennessee showed it has plenty of pride in last week's 31-24 loss at Atlanta after falling behind 17-0. The Titans battled back to keep it close and showed improvement throughout the game. 
Rookie QB Marcus Mariota showed improvement in his first preseason game in each drive and finished 7-for-8 with 94 yards and a touchdown, although he also had two turnovers. I expecting to continue to improve each game and with the home edge I'm expecting Tennessee to pull out the win against a team that managed only three points in its first preseason outing. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Arizona Cardinals as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Cardinals kick off their exhibition slate against the Kansas City Chiefs Saturday. Arizona knows the importance of the preseason after suffering so many injuries last year. The Cardinals had to reach deep down the bench for replacements and they’ll be taking a good look at their second stringers Saturday night. That means plenty of motivation for Arizona’s second and third teamers this preseason. The Cardinals are expected to have starting QB Carson Palmer in for a quick set before giving way to backups Drew Stanton and Logan Thomas, who got starting experience when Palmer went down with a knee injury last season. Arizona’s QB depth is far greater than Kansas City, which turns to Chase Daniel and Aaron Murray after No. 1 Alex Smith. With the Cardinals motivated this preseason and plenty of experience under center, we see solid value with Arizona in Week 1.

I’m playing on Arizona as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I’m playing on the Denver Broncos as my 10* Best Bet.

The Broncos have plenty to prove in the preseason this summer. Denver ushered out John Fox after a disappointing finish to 2014, with the team stumbling down the stretch, and brought in Gary Kubiak to run things in the Mile High City. Kubiak installs his zone blocking schemes and run-centered attack, which will be the focus of the offense Friday. Denver will sit Peyton Manning and many members of the first team, but do have a talented backup QB taking snaps in Brock Osweiler. With Manning getting older, Kubiak wants a good long look at the backup and he's expected to play plenty of snaps Friday. The Seahawks will be careful with newly-signed QB Russell Wilson, so we expect to see plenty of Tarvaris Jackson and R.J. Archer. Running back Marshawn Lynch is a question mark but will likely not play and, right now, Seattle is more concerned with how the running backs block than how much they gain on the ground. Seattle’s vaunted defense is without Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor, and Richard Sherman as well as Will Blackmon will sit with injuries. That leaves just one starter in the secondary in Cary Williams.

I’m playing on Denver as my 10* Best Bet Friday.

I’m playing on the Cincinnati Bengals as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Bengals open their exhibition slate against the New York Giants Friday. Cincinnati and New York mixed it up this week in 11-on-11 combined scrimmages, with the Bengals defense stepping up with some big plays in those contests. Cincinnati knows that if it wants to stake its claim as the AFC North front runner, it will have to do it with defense. The Bengals offense also looked sharp in that work with New York, with coordinator Hue Jackson very impressed with the Wednesday effort following a sloppy session on Tuesday. It’s a big night for the Bengals at home with the team unveiling $20 million in improvements and renovations to Paul Brown Stadium. And what better way to honor those upgrades than with a win. We expect some added motivation from Cincy Friday night.

I’m playing on Cincinnati as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

TORONTO at CALGARY 
I am playing on CALGARY. The Stampeders haven't lost two games in a row in three years and I don't see it happening for them at home Monday night. 
Calgary comes into this contest fully prepared and rested with 10 days since their last game, which was a 29-11 loss to Montreal. The Stamps have been stewing since then and are eagerly awaiting a chance to smash helmets this week with Toronto. 
Calgary beat the Argos in both meetings last year and they hammered them on the ground for a combined 302 yards in those games. The running game is where we typically see Calgary do its damage but because the team has been trailing in much of its two games this season, we haven't seen as much of the rushing attack as usual. 
I think we'll see more of the ground attack tonight with the Stampeders on home turf with a great game plan in place and I expect to see Calgary running back Jon Cornish pile up some yards. The passing game should have some success too, considering Toronto is giving up 327 yards passing through its first two games. 
It should also help Calgary's cause also that Toronto has two significant injuries to slotback Andre Durie and safety Jermaine Gabriel. Toronto's Argos offense may not have the flow it's enjoyed through the first two games without Durie and the defense is having enough trouble as it is without the loss of Gabriel. 
The Stampeders were the best team in the CFL against the spread last year at 12-5-1 ATS and I'm expecting them to get back on the winning track tonight at home with a convincing win over the visiting Argos. 10* Main Event

OTTAWA at EDMONTON  I am playing on EDMONTON. This marks my first 10* CFL play of the season and I feel the Eskimos simply aren't favored by enough over the visiting RedBlacks tonight.  Edmonton is playing its first home game of the season and the team has the luxury of doing so coming off a bye. The Eskimos didn't jump out to the greatest start of the season with a 26-11 loss in Toronto. I feel that game can be thrown away a little bit where starting QB Mike Reilly was injured in the game and the Eskimos coughed up six turnovers including three fumbles. For two weeks in practice they've been talking ball protection and I'm expecting a much more responsible team tonight.  Matt Nichols takes over as starting QB and he's one of the big reasons I think Edmonton is undervalued. Nichols is a six-year CFL veteran and has filled in for starting spot duty before and I expect him to jump in seamlessly tonight. The bye goes a long way in helping with that and I feel the Eskimos will hand the RedBlacks their first loss of the season in convincing fashion. 10* Main Event

I’m playing on the Cleveland Cavaliers as a 10*.

The Cavaliers have their backs to the ropes in Game 6 at home. Cleveland looks tired and lethargic in its Game 5 loss to the Warriors, but we expect the home crowd at Quiken Loans Arena to energize the home side and keep this game much closer than the oddsmakers expect. The Cavs were forced out of their game plan by the Warriors' smaller lineup and head coach David Blatt may have made a mistake trying to match that speed, which left his thinning team running on empty in Game 5. Blatt knows he can’t try to run with the Warriors, so we expect Cleveland to go back to what kept it in this series: size and strength. LeBron James will continue to put up monstrous numbers and the best player on the planet will do everything in his power to keep this series alive. It might not be pretty at times, but we do see Cleveland fighting tooth and nail in Game 5 and covering as a home dog. The host has been the hot bet when these teams collide going 5-2 ATS in their last seven clashes.

I’m playing on Cleveland as a 10* Tuesday.

CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE 
I am playing on CLEVELAND. The Cavs have been the better team against the spread these playoffs and I believe they are getting too many points for this first game at Golden State. 
The Cavs are 8-6 ATS in the postseason, compared to the Warriors' record of 7-8 and this marks the most points Cleveland has gotten so far. With points to work with, the Cavs are 3-1 against the number in these playoffs and they also happen to be on a 4-1 ATS stretch heading into Game 1 Thursday night. 
Obviously LeBron James plays a huge factor in taking the Cavs in here but he's been supported in a big way by J.R. Smith lately, among others. Smith is coming off a pair of big double-doubles that helped Cleveland close out the series against Atlanta. 
Cleveland matches up pretty well across the board when you look at shooting and rebounding stats but what I really like is the Cavs rank third in defensive efficiency in the playoffs. Though Golden State holds some slight analytical advantages, I just don't think they are worth six points. 10* MAIN EVENT

I’m playing on the Cleveland Cavaliers as my 10* Main Event.

Cleveland has an opportunity to close out the Atlanta Hawks in a series sweep of the Eastern Conference finals Tuesday night. The Cavs are coming off a thrilling 114-111 overtime victory in Game 3, which ripped the heart out of the Hawks and should have some resounding impact in this contest. Cleveland has withstood the best Atlanta has thrown at it and doesn’t want to chance taking this series back to Atlanta, with the Hawks holding home court in this series. Cleveland is waiting on the status of All-Star guard Kyrie Irving but in the meantime is getting solid production and playoff grittiness from backup Matthew Dellavedova, who is coming off a 17-point effort in Game 3. Tristian Thompson has also come up big for the Cleveland frontcourt, making up for some missing big bodies down low. He battled for 10 points and seven rebounds Sunday. Books have the Cavaliers set as lofty favorites for this matchup but we think it’s for a reason, especially after the way Atlanta lost in Game 3.

I’m playing on Cleveland as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.

CLEVELAND at ATLANTA 
I am playing on ATLANTA. I think the Hawks will bounce back to tie up the series with the Cavs in Game 2. 
Once again Atlanta is seeing a line so small that it pretty much comes down to which team will win the game. I believe that team is Atlanta after the Hawks had a substandard performance in Game 1 in my opinion. 
Atlanta went just 4-of-23 from 3-point range and was badly out-rebounded 49-37 on Wednesday. I don't think the Hawks can play any worse than that and they still managed to keep this game within eight points. I think we'll see more shots drop for Atlanta in Game 2 and good news on the injury front is that DeMarre Carroll's knee injury just looks like a sprain and isn't as serious as initially feared. 
Jeff Teague has really elevated his performance in recent games after a slow start to the postseason and I think he'll be a huge factor in this series. I also feel we'll see a much better game from Atlanta's front court on Friday and I'm expecting Paul Millsap and Al Horford to step up their efforts from what we saw in Game 1. 10*

HOUSTON at GOLDEN STATE 
I am playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Warriors appear to have their confidence back, pulling off four straight wins following a pair of losses to the Grizzlies last round. Golden State is 3-1 against the spread in those efforts and I see them earning the cover tonight at home against Houston in Game 2 of the Western finals. 
Stephen Curry was the MVP whenever he needed to be in Game 1 when he scored 34 points and drained six of 11 3-point attempts. When he's shooting hot, the Warriors become pretty close to being unstoppable as they spread the floor and share the ball too. 
Last game also marked the fifth win of the season for Golden State against Houston and I'm just not sure if this Rockets squad believes it can beat the top team in the NBA. I'm looking for a big win tonight for the Warriors and their sixth cover in the last seven meetings with the Rockets. 10*

I’m playing on the Atlanta Hawks as a 10*

The Hawks escaped a tough series with the Wizards, thanks to some last-second heroics as well as some luck, with Washington having a Paul Pierce buzzer beater called back in Game 6. And those close calls have oddsmakers showing the Eastern Conference’s top seed little respect in this conference finals opener against Cleveland. Atlanta matches up better with the Cavs, being able to throw some multiple athletic forwards at LeBron James as well as possessing a much deeper frontcourt. Cleveland lucked out against Chicago in Round 2 with the Bulls’ big men playing banged up. The Hawks have All-Stars Al Horford and Paul Milsap at forward along with budding star DeMarre Carroll. The Cavaliers don’t have much muscle or talent down low, since Kevin Love was lost for the postseason, and we expect the Hawks to flex its frontcourt prowess and pick up an impressive win in Game 1 of this Eastern Conference final Wednesday.

I’m playing on Atlanta as a 10* Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Golden State Warriors as a 10*.

 The Warriors had a tough series with the Memphis Grizzlies, overcoming their size and dominating defense. Now, Golden State switches gears against the high-powered Houston Rockets in the Western Conference finals. This Rockets play more at the Warriors’ pace than the Grizzlies did and that might not be a good thing for Houston in Game 1. The Rockets are ripe for the letdown spot after battling back from 3-1 down to Los Angeles, including an improbable Game 6 comeback and a huge victory in Game 7. The Warriors have covered in five straight meetings with the Rockets and showed plenty of character in the previous series versus Memphis. They will set the tone with a big win in Game 1 Tuesday night.

 I’m playing on Golden State as a 10* Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as a 10*.


The Clippers let Game 6 get away from them, collapsing in what would have been a home win that sent them to the Western Conference finals. However, now the series swings back to Houston and the Clippers are desperate to win this Game 7 showdown and not become the latest team to collapse under the pressure. Los Angeles held a 19-point lead in Game 6 then caved in for a 40-point fourth quarter to the Rockets. We expect head coach Doc Rivers to preach defensive intensity before Game 7 and the Clippers will extra cautious to let Houston build any momentum offensively. The Rockets were able to pick up plenty of scraps and outscored L.A. 26-5 in second-chance buckets. Those offensive putbacks will be much harder to come by Sunday. We expect both teams to battle but see the Clippers doing enough to cover this short spread and advance to the conference finals.


I’m playing on the L.A. Clippers as a 10* Sunday.

ATLANTA at WASHINGTON 

I am playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks played about as poorly as they can play on Wednesday night and they still managed to squeak out the win over the Wizards. I think we'll see a much better effort on Friday in Game 6 and I believe they'll not only cover the number, but could very likely end the series.  The Hawks coughed up the ball a sloppy 25 times in Game 5, which should have been enough to doom them. However, I just feel they are the better team, and tougher in the paint, and Al Horford managed to haul in a big rebound and put back the basket needed to take the game.  Nene continues to be sporadic for the Wizards down low (nine points and 40% shooting in Game 5) and as a result, Atlanta holds a big edge in the paint with Horford and Paul Milsap. The Hawks out-rebounded the Wizards 50-46 last game and I think we'll see that continue to give Atlanta a big edge down low in Game 6.  I'm expecting Atlanta to finish this series off on Friday and as a result, I love the points here. 10* Best Bet

CLEVELAND at CHICAGO 
I am playing on CLEVELAND. This one all comes down to LeBron, who has simply gone off in this series and I don't see him slowing down any time soon. 
James is coming off a 38-point triple-double and he's averaging 30.8 points over his last four games. The Cavs went 3-1 in those contests and it's like LeBron just decided Cleveland wasn't going to lose this series. All the Bulls have really been able to do is watch. 
Historically, James is incredible when it comes to putting teams away and I expect him to have another big night. In close-out playoff games (with three wins in the series), LeBron's teams are 22-8 and 20-9-1 against the spread. That's a rate of covering the spread at 69 percent and with a small spread tonight, I expect Cleveland to cash in again tonight. 10*

MEMPHIS at GOLDEN STATE 
I am playing on GOLDEN STATE. I like the Warriors to continue in their turnaround of this series after winning Game 3 and for two main reasons: a key defensive adjustment and shots are finally starting to fall for them. 
The Warriors made a surprising change on defense by making Andrew Bogut guard Tony Allen in Game 3. The goal was to try to force Allen to shoot jumpers and make the Grizz beat them in a shooting contest. The result was that Memphis beat Golden State 44-34 in the paint but the Grizzlies were badly out-shot from everywhere else. 
The Warriors shot 47% from the field and 42.4 percent from downtown compared to 37.5% and 22.2% for the Grizzlies.
I expect the momentum to carry into tonight's game back in California with a Golden State team that has its confidence back. 10*

I’m playing on the Atlanta Hawks as a 10*.

Atlanta is riding the momentum of a Game 4 victory and looks to score another blow to the Cinderella Wizards at home in Game 5 Wednesday. The Hawks were able to overwhelm a Washington offense that sorely missed John Wall down the stretch of Game 4. Wall is a question mark for Game 5 but even if he does play, the dynamic point guard will be forced to use his offhand which allows defenders to dictate which direction they want to force Wall, not to mention what that does to his shot. The Hawks finally saw some of the offensive balance that made them the top seed in the East, with forward Paul Milsap stepping up with 19 points and stuffed stat line. Atlanta will build on that last outing and get a solid boost from the home crowd, going 6-2-1 ATS in their previous nine games with the Wizards.

I’m playing on Atlanta as a 10* Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Cleveland Cavaliers as a 10* PLAYOFF SIDE OF THE YEAR.

The Cavaliers – LeBron James more specifically – tore the hearts out of the Chicago Bulls with his game-winning corner jumper at the buzzer in Game 4 to even this series at 2-2, swinging back to Cleveland Tuesday night. Chicago, which won Game 3 in similar fashion, thought it had the Cavs on the ropes but now they must rebound from a gut-wrenching loss on the road – not an easy task for even the savviest club. Cleveland didn’t shoot well in the two games inside the United Center and generally haven’t for the first four games of this series, but we expect the home-court advantage to really show up in Game 5. The Cavs pushed back against the Bulls frontcourt in Game 4, taking advantage of Pau Gasol’s hamstring injury, and won the battle on the boards. Gasol is still questionable for Game 5, putting weight on fellow forward Taj Gibson, who is nursing a knee injury, and Joakim Noah, who hasn’t been healthy all season. Cleveland will continue to exploit those ailments and knows it can’t afford to drop a game at Quicken Loans Arena and head back to Chicago facing elimination.

I’m playing on Cleveland as a 10* Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Golden State Warriors as my 10* Western Conference Main Event.

The Warriors were punched in the mouth in Games 2 and 3, with the Grizzlies enforcing their brand of physical basketball on the finesse-based Golden State squad. Memphis was able to bring the tempo to a standstill with its methodical offense and aggressive perimeter defenders. However, we see the Warriors making some major adjustments in Game 4. Golden State can’t rely on Stephen Curry to piggyback the offense, and we expect a much more deep attack coming from the Warriors. Klay Thompson showed signs of life with 20 points and eight rebounds in Game 3, and getting him back on track will open up the offense for everyone. A quick start for the Warriors offense is key here. They were second in the NBA in first quarter points and have averaged 24.7 points in the opening frame against one of the stingiest defenses in the league in this series. While many are writing the Warriors off, oddsmakers are still showing Golden State respect with this line and we feel as though we should too.

I’m playing on Golden State as my 10* Western Conference Main Event Monday.

I’m playing on the Atlanta Hawks as my 10* Eastern Conference Main Event.

The Hawks and Washington Wizards have gone tit-for-tat in the first three games of this Eastern Conference semifinal series and now it’s Atlanta’s opportunity to return serve. The Hawks were burned by last-second heroics from Wizards veteran Paul Pierce, who stepped up in the absence of star guard John Wall. Washington was able to survive one game without their MVP but we expect the Wizards’ weakness without Wall to be on full display in Game 4. The Hawks forced 15 turnovers and turned those into 25 fastbreak points and if not for a hot shooting night for Washington, which nearly blew a 21-point lead, the Hawks would have the Wizards on the ropes. We expect Atlanta to tighten up on defense and really put pressure on Washington to fill that scoring void left by Wall.

I’m playing on Atlanta as my 10* Eastern Conference Main Event Monday.

I’m playing on the Cleveland Cavaliers as my 10* Main Event.

The Cavaliers are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Chicago Bulls in Game 3 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series, with Bulls guard Derrick Rose banking in a buzzer-beater 3-pointer to avoid overtime. Cleveland has already shown the ability to respond in a big way with a win in Game 2 following a loss in the series opener, as we expect LeBron James & Co. to answer the call Sunday. The Cavs didn’t shoot especially well in Game 3 – hitting at just 39 percent from the field – but still were in the game until Rose launched that prayer. The return of JR Smith from suspension gave Cleveland some added scoring pop off the bench and allowed James to get some much-need rest. The Cavs did a solid job containing the Bulls big men in Game 3 and may not face a fully-healthy Pau Gasol in Game 4. Gasol is a question mark for Sunday after suffering a hamstring injury. Either way, that’s a huge break for Cleveland and it won’t pass up this opportunity to tie the series going back home for Game 5.

I’m playing on Cleveland as my 10* Main Event Sunday.

ATLANTA at WASHINGTON 
I am playing on WASHINGTON. The biggest story for the Wizards in Game 3 is obviously John Wall's injury, which has now been diagnosed as multiple fractures in his left hand and wrist. 
Wall will likely be on the sidelines again but I feel that just means oddsmakers are undervaluing the Wizards as they know the injury will attract Atlanta money. Wall's fill-in, Ramon Sessions, was more than a strong replacement with 21 points and four assists and Game 2's loss can't be blamed on the back court. Bradley Beal also had 20 points and seven assists. 
Washington actually got beaten in the paint 38-30 and that's where I see the Wizards improving in Game 3. I think home court will do wonders for the Wizards, who pulverized the Raptors at home last round and I love that they are getting points. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Cleveland Cavaliers as my 10* Super Play.

Cleveland was knocked down by the Chicago Bulls in Game 1 of this Eastern Conference semifinal series but we expect LeBron & Co. to come roaring back with a strong effort in Game 2, not risking the loss of homecourt advantage and heading to the Windy City down 0-2. Cleveland got off to a slow start and couldn’t claw its way back into the game, unable to match the Bulls inside-out attack. The Cavs will be much more mindful of the importance of a strong start and we expect James to see a more versatile role in Game 2, taking his strength to the blocks to battle the Bulls’ big men. Cleveland went with a much smaller starting lineup but we expect them to counter Chicago’s size with a bigger lineup Wednesday. Cleveland has been a strong bounce-back bet, going 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games after failing to cover the spread.

I’m playing on Cleveland as my 10* Super Play Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Atlanta Hawks as my 10* Main Event.

The Hawks were caught sleeping in Game 1 of this Eastern Conference semifinal series, losing 104-98 after coming off a grueling opening-round set against the Brooklyn Nets on short rest. Atlanta has had time to refocus and prepare for the Wizards, who they had on a ropes after a strong first half. The Hawks won’t risk blowing home-court advantage and we expect that if Atlanta gets up again, it’ll keep its foot on the gas. As this series plays out, the Hawks' depth will eventually overwhelm Washington. Atlanta goes very deep with six players averaging double figures which is a contrast to the Wizards who really on their starting backcourt to tow the load offensively. We expect a better all-around effort from Atlanta in Game 2 now that it's rested and refocused, having gone 4-1-1 ATS in its previous six meetings with the Wizards.

I’m playing on Atlanta as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Houston Rockets as my 10* Main Event.

The Houston Rockets are hoping to catch the Los Angeles Clippers in a disastrous letdown spot in Game 1 of their conference semifinal series Monday night. Los Angeles knocked off the reigning NBA champion San Antonio Spurs in dramatic fashion in Game 7 this past Saturday night, and a letdown seems only natural after one of the biggest wins in franchise history. The Rockets, on the other hand, have had plenty of time to catch their collective breath and plan for L.A. Houston will be looking to also take advantage of a possibly shorthanded Clippers squad, with Chris Paul nursing a hamstring injury. Even if Paul does play, he’s not 100 percent and is going against a very dangerous scorer in James Harden. These teams split the season series but Houston did win and cover in the two most recent meetings.

I’m playing on Houston as my 10* Main Event Monday.

I’m playing on the Washington Wizards as my 10* Best Bet.

Washington has been patiently waiting for their second-round opponent following a dominant series sweep of the Toronto Raptors to open the playoffs. While the Wizards have been out of action for some time now they do catch the Hawks in a dangerous letdown spot coming off a grueling series with the Brooklyn Net and a short turnaround into the conference semifinals. Washington can dictate the tempo against this tired Hawks side, with their guards coming off a sizzling series with Toronto. Atlanta did win three of the four meetings with Washington in the regular season – but Toronto did sweep the Wiz and we all saw how much that played into that series. We’re getting tremendous spread value on a well-prepared Wizards team in Game 1.

I’m playing on Washington as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as a 10*.

The Clippers forced a Game 7 showdown with the San Antonio Spurs with a 102-96 victory in San Antonio to swing this Round 1 series back to the Staples Center. Home court hasn’t amounted to much in this series but we expect the Clippers to have a ton of momentum and a solid home edge Saturday night. The Spurs may finally be showing their age – or at least all those deep playoff runs. San Antonio’s stars had a horrible Game 6 performance and while we expect them to play much better in Game 7, this could be the beginning of the end for the Spurs' reign.

I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as a 10* Saturday.

ATLANTA at BROOKLYN
I am playing on ATLANTA. I successfully took the Hawks in Game 5 and I'm taking them again here Friday night. 
Al Horford seems to have awoken in this series and is the biggest reason I like the Hawks to win and cover this small number tonight. After a substandard first three games, Horford has had two solid games and he picked up 20 points and 15 assists in Game 5. The Hawks outscored Brooklyn 42-32 in the paint and they held a 17-point lead at one point. 
I expect Atlanta to continue to hold that lead down low tonight, which is also opening up the rest of the floor. Kyle Korver has 33 points over his last two games and has been doing some damage from beyond the 3-point line. 
I like the series to end tonight and the Hawks to cover a number that wasn't set high enough by oddsmakers in my opinion. 10* Main Event

I am playing on the CLIPPERS. Oddly, there is something about playing on the road in this series that is giving teams the edge all of a sudden. The visiting team has won and covered in three of the last four matchups and I think that trend continues tonight. 
Even though the Spurs won and covered last game, it was one that just as easily could have gone the Clippers' way. A DeAndre Jordan feather-touch of the ball with 4.3 seconds left proved to be the difference that may have prevented the Clippers from being up 3-2 in this series instead of being down 3-2. Jordan was called for basket interference, which would have given L.A. the 109-108 lead with just a few seconds left. 
Now the Clippers are getting a handful of points, which I believe is too many for a game they could very well win outright and send this series to a seventh and deciding game. 
Los Angeles destroyed the Spurs in points in the paint in Game 5 (56-34) and in fast break points (25-11), both good signs of outplaying San Antonio. Where the Clippers fell down was on 3-pointers where the Spurs went 11-for-23 while L.A. went an ugly 1-for-14. 
Clippers sharp shooter J.J. Redick got into foul trouble and fouled out without having attempted a trey and I don't see that happening two games in a row. Clippers coach Doc Rivers was fined $25 grand after the game for crticizing the officials and I believe the veteran coach may have bought some calls back. 
I expect the Clippers to drain some treys and better defend the 3 in Game 6 and continue to outplay the Spurs in other key facets. I am more than happy to take the points here and it should be noted the underdog is 6-3 against the spread in the nine meetings between these teams this season. 10* Main Event  

I am playing on ATLANTA. It was a bit of a stunner than Brooklyn managed to win both games it has played at home in this series but I think the series turns back around in Game 5 back in Atlanta. 
Home court is clearly taking on huge importance in this matchup and I can't ignore the fact the Hawks are 36-7 straight up and 26-17 against the spread at home this year. 
Game 4 was a game where the stats told a slightly different story than the score when Brooklyn won 120-115 in overtime. The Hawks out-rebounded the Nets 55-40, they outscored them 60-44 in the paint and they knocked down 13 3-pointers. They also blew a 12-point lead at one point in what looked to be a sure win and cover for Atlanta. 
I think that will serve as a bit of a wake-up call for the Hawks that they need to be more consistent. I also don't think the Nets can rely on a blast-from-the-past magical performance from Deron Williams, who scored 35 in Game 4. That effort was the deciding factor last game and I just don't think Brooklyn can cross its fingers and hope for that to happen again. 
Atlanta plays tougher defense at home where it allows an impressive 94.8 points this season and I think we'll see the Hawks better contain the Nets tonight.  10* Main Event

I’m playing on the Portland Trail Blazers as my 10* Annihilator.

The Trail Blazers are backed up against a wall, facing a possible four-game sweep at the hands of the Memphis Grizzlies Monday. We expect Portland to come out fighting in Game 4 and see solid line value with the Blazers.

Portland tried to change the tempo of the series in Game 3 at home. The Blazers pushed the pace and tried to overwhelm Memphis with a high-scoring attack, which backfired when the Grizzlies matched Portland’s offensive efficiency and scored 39 of their total 115 points from the foul line. That was the most amount of points scored by Memphis since a 122-point effort in overtime back in January.

The Blazers do catch a break with Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley out for Game 4 with an eye injury. Conley is the motor behind the Memphis offense and an underrated defender. Portland should try to up the tempo again and challenge the Grizzlies’ backcourt depth and ball handling with Conley out of action. Damian Lillard, especially, will be looking to test Memphis after being hounded by Conley all series.

The Blazers desperate and upping the tempo on a shorthanded Grizzlies backcourt are why I’m playing on Portland as my 10* Annihilator Monday.

I’m playing on the Dallas Mavericks as my 10* Western Conference Main Event.

Dallas is on the ropes down 0-3 to the Houston Rockets at home Sunday night. The Mavericks are coming off a heartbreaking 130-128 loss to their in-state rivals in Game 3, despite holding a 13-point lead over Houston in that matchup.

We see value in a desperate Dallas side Sunday. This is a veteran NBA team that has been in plenty of playoff wars. They won’t be shaken by the situation and will want to save face on their homecourt in Game 4, avoiding the sweep. The home team has been the wise bet when these Texas teams collide, with the host going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 head-to-head meetings.

Game 3 was the style Dallas would like to play against the more finesse-based Rockets. There were 56 personal fouls called and the Mavericks were vocal about the officiating, saying there should have been more on Houston. The Mavs' best chance of slowing down the Rockets’ up-tempo pace – which ranks second fastest in the NBA – is to get physical with the ball carrier. With emotions running high, we expect another tight physical game between these rivals in Game 4.

The Mavericks playing for pride and slowing the Rockets down with a physical style are why I’m playing on Dallas as my 10* Western Conference Main Event Sunday.

I’m playing on the Toronto Raptors as my 10* Eastern Conference Main Event. The Raptors are facing an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the Washington Wizards, despite standing as the higher seed and taking all three meetings against Washington in the regular season. Toronto fell down 0-3 with a 106-99 loss in DC Friday night, trailing at the half and battling an off-shooting night. There is desperation with the Dinos in Game 4 and we see that providing plenty of pointspread value. Washington is a very young team and has never held a 3-0 stranglehold on the playoff series. Teams must learn to put opponents away when they have them on the ropes, and this Wizards squad just isn’t there yet. We expect Toronto to live to see another day with a gritty effort Sunday. The Raptors defense wasn’t able to translate 17 Washington turnovers into offense, despite 12 steals. Toronto had just nine fastbreak points and needs to do a better job in transition, breaking out and capitalizing on those errors. The Wizards have averaged 14.7 turnovers per game in this season while Toronto has coughed the ball up only 10.7 times per contest, including just nine turnovers in Game 3. The Wizards' inexperience closing out games and the Raptors turning turnovers into points are why I’m playing on Toronto as my 10* Eastern Conference Main Event Sunday.

I am playing on PORTLAND. I expect the Blazers to be relieved to be heading back to home court, where they scored about two more points and allowed about three fewer points than they did compared to their overall averages this season. 
The better play was evident by the fact the Blazers were a much better bet on home court this year than they were on the road. They were a miserable 18-25 against the number as the visitor but a more bankroll pleasing 22-18-1 for their bettors as the host. 
Aron Afflalo is expected to be back in the lineup after missing the first two games of the series and I think he’ll give Portland a big lift. Damon Lillard could use all the help he can get after starting the series in a shooting funk but I fully expect him to break out of that how that the series has shifted out of Memphis. 
LaMarcus Aldridge has been a bright spot for Portland and a big reason I believe this team still feels it can win this series. He poured in 24 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in Game 2 and I feel his stellar play will continue. 
I also think Memphis won’t be able to play quite the same physical style it likes to play in Portland. We often see the home team get the benefit of the doubt on calls in the NBA playoffs and I don’t think this game will be any different. I feel that will break Memphis out of the style of game it usually likes to play while giving a big edge to Portland. 

The Blazers are 14-8 against the spread versus winning teams at home this season and I think they’ll grab a big win at home in Game 3 and declare this series isn’t quite over yet.  10* Opening Round Game of the Year

CHICAGO at MILWAUKEE 
I am playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bucks had some pretty hard betting luck against the spread during their first two playoff games in Chicago and I think the luck will turn around tonight back home. 
Milwaukee failed to cover by a combined measly 3 1/2 points in those two games and I think they'll be more comfortable in their familiar surroundings with a few points in their back pocket to work with. 
What I like about the first two games is though the Bucks didn't play their best basketball, they forced the Bulls to get into some sloppy play too. Game 2 was especially ugly to watch with both teams shooting below 40 percent from the field while the Bucks picked up just 13 assists. 
I think we'll see the Bucks moving the ball much better in Game 3. Meanwhile, the Bulls may have a little more trouble doing the same with Nikola Mirotic out of the lineup with a leg injury. Mirotic scored 20.8 points per game in March and tends to add more than the average fan realizes to the Bulls' lineup. 
He adds a lot of versatility to our frontcourt," the Bulls' Pau Gasol said. "(It's) going to be more open when he's out there because of his shooting ability. We're going to miss some of his stuff."   I also like that the Bucks ended a nine-game home losing streak to the Bulls this month with a 95-91 victory on April 1. I think they’ll earn another win tonight and it’s a comfort knowing they don’t have that hanging over their heads. 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the Portland Trail Blazers as my 10* Best Bet.

The Trail Blazers opened this series with a disappointing 100-86 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, falling short as 5.5-point underdogs. Portland let those postseason nerves get the best of them, stumbling out of the blocks for a very slow start to Game 1 – scoring only 39 points in the first half – and battling from behind for the rest of the game.

We expect those playoff jitters to have passed by the time the ball goes up in Memphis Wednesday night. The Blazers, who shot a dismal 33.7 percent from the field, will be much more comfortable with their surroundings and be hungry to bounce back with a solid effort in Game 2.

Portland, which is one of the better perimeter shooting teams in the NBA, has the ability to stretch this big Memphis lineup with those outside looks – when those shots are going down. The Blazers made only eight of their 26 attempts from deep in Game 1 but this is a much better shooting team than that, knocking down 36.2 percent from downtown during the season – eighth in the NBA.

The Trail Blazers getting over those postseason nerves and their ability to stretch the Grizzlies defense are why I’m playing on Portland as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Atlanta Hawks as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Hawks may have gotten a wake-up call from the Brooklyn Nets in Game 1 of this Eastern Conference opening round series. Atlanta edged Brooklyn 99-92 and failed to cover as 11-point favorites this past weekend, with the Nets fighting right until the final horn.

The No. 1 seed in the East knows it has a poor history of early postseason exits and would be one of the most memorable busts if they were to fall to Brooklyn this season. We fully expect the Hawks to take zero chances with that in Game 2 and gladly give the points, predicting a big night for Atlanta.

All eyes are on Hawks center Al Horford and his finger injury but Atlanta shouldn’t be worried. This team has some of the best scoring depth in the NBA, with six players averaging 10 or more points per game. Atlanta has shown an ability to absorb injuries to key players all season and won’t suffer as big a letdown as expected if Horford is unable to go.

The Hawks waking up after a close call in Game 1 and their uncanny scoring depth are why I’m playing on Atlanta as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Toronto Raptors as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Raptors stumbled in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference playoff series with the Washington Wizards, getting edged 96-86 in overtime at home Saturday. We expect a big bounce back from Toronto, with the pressure of another first-round exit against a lower seed hanging over its head.

The Raptors were obviously playing beyond themselves in Game 1. They scored just 56 points through three quarters and shot a dismal 38 percent from the field, including a 6-for-29 performance. Toronto’s offense looked rattled from the opening tip and star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan took terrible shot after terrible shot, finishing the night 6 of 20 from the field for 15 points and three turnovers.

Those postseason nerves will settle down with an extra day between Games 1 and 2, allowing the Raptors to regroup and focus on getting better looks from its offense. Toronto didn’t do too bad a job on the defensive end, as Washington was a bit anxious as well. The Raptors did win all three meetings with the Wizards in the regular season and checked them to 93 and 84 points in two of those games.

The Raptors getting back on track offensively and continuing their defensive dominance are why I’m playing on Toronto as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I am playing on the CLIPPERS. Los Angeles soars into the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak and though the Clippers went 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four games, I like the fact they barely have a point spread to worry about covering here. 
The Clippers own the second best offense in the league with 106 points per game this season and I believe they'll be able to keep the pace up and do enough to take the first game of this series on home court. 
Chris Paul was once again incredible this season with 19.1 points per game and a league leading 10.2 assists. He's had the benefit of having Blake Griffin back for the last month following a staph infection and he's going to be a nightmare matchup for the Spurs. Griffin scored 31 and grabbed 13 rebounds to go along with five assists in his last game against the Spurs - a 20-point win back in January in San Antonio. 
The reason why the Clippers are so tough though is they can score with just about any style a team wants to give them. J.J. Redick shot the lights out from 3-point range this season (43.2 percent), which opens the floor in the paint for Griffin and DeAndre Jordan so it's a little of pick your poison when you face L.A. 
The Clippers aren't quite as terrible on defense as they're made out to be this season either and I think they'll do just enough to keep the Spurs in check. Paul finished fifth in the league in steals per game Jordan finished fifth in the league in blocks per game while leading the league in field-goal shooting percentage at the other end. 
Los Angeles has won the last two meetings between these two squads and the most recent one came without Griffin in the lineup. Now that he's back I don't think the Clippers are going to be slowed on home court in Game 1, even against the Spurs, and I like the first game to go to L.A. 10* Sunday Main Event

I’m playing on the Cleveland Cavaliers as my 10* Personal Favorite.

Cleveland, despite the gap in seeding between the No. 2 and No. 7 teams in the East, won’t be taking the Boston Celtics lightly in Game 1 of this opening round playoff series Sunday. The Celtics have beat the Cavs twice in the past week and one of those wins came with Cleveland playing all of its starters, losing 99-90 in Boston as a 6-point road favorite on April 10.

While the big spread is a tempting proposition for underdog bettors, double-digit favorites haven’t fared well in the postseason and we expect Cleveland to set the tone for the series with an explosive Game 1 performance. The Cavaliers have had their eyes on the postseason since LeBron James returned home in the summer, and that run all starts Sunday.

Boston can’t afford to let this series turn into a shootout. The Celtics have an offensive spark in guard Isaiah Thomas, but can he guard Cleveland’s bigger backcourt of Kyrie Irving, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert – and even James if he steps in at two-guard? Fellow guard Avery Bradley isn’t 100 percent coming into the postseason, nursing an ankle injury, and towing the scoring and defense load is just too much for this pair.

The Cavaliers not taking Boston lightly and their big and talented guards are why I’m playing on Cleveland as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on HOUSTON. The Rockets finished with their third-best record in franchise history and they consistently proved to be a matchup problem for the Mavs this year.

The Rockets went 3-1 straight up and against the spread in the four meetings this season and Houston often used a lightning transition game to get the jump on the Mavericks. Dallas gave up 15.9 points on average in transition on the season but against Houston that number jumped to a sloppy 23.3 points.

The Rockets are also a much better defensive team than the Mavericks and they held Dirk Nowitzki to a disappointing 42 percent shooting in the four meetups and I'll think that's a great sign that points toward another Houston cover here. 

Center Dwight Howard finally appears healthy for Houston and I think that will be another big advantage for the Rockets – particularly when it comes to keeping Mavericks center Tyson Chandler in check, who has averaged almost 15 points over his last five games. Howard is averaging 10.5 rebounds per game and has at least two blocks in his last three games and I expect him to be a big presence in the paint.

Then there’s James Harden, of course, who finished second in NBA scoring this year. He’s going to be the best player on the court pretty much no matter who Houston plays and I expect him to own a big role in leading the Rockets to the money in Game 1. 

Houston enters this contest on a three-game winning streak and the Rockets were also an incredible 26-15 against the spread on home court this season. They've also covered four of the last five meetings against Dallas and everywhere you look, this game is pointing to a Houston win and cover. 10* Saturday Main Event

I am playing on NEW ORLEANS. It's "win and they're in" for the Pelicans tonight, who will be guaranteed a playoff spot if they can beat San Antonio. So we know we will see the Pelicans leave everything on the floor and I love the fact that they are also getting points on home court. 
San Antonio enters on an 11-game winning streak but the Spurs have also failed to cover in two straight games after being forced to give away too many points by oddsmakers. The Pelicans have won seven of their last 10 games, but all three of those losses came on the road. The Pelicans have won and covered their last four games on home court, which includes a win over Golden State where the Warriors were laying a very similar number to the one we're seeing tonight. 
Unlike most of the rest of the NBA, the Spurs have actually been a great matchup for New Orleans this year. The Pelicans have covered the spread in all three meetings and won two of them straight up. The Spurs needed overtime to win the one meeting they did capture but failed to cover as 4.5 point favorites. 
You have to also like that Anthony Davis is a matchup problem for just about any titeam right now and is coming off racking up 24 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and six blocks against Minnesota. It should also help that guard Jrue Holiday is expected back in the lineup after missing Monday's game and the Pelicans will need his 14.9 points and 6.9 assists per game. 
The Pelicans are 13-6 against the spread at home against winning teams this season while the Spurs are 7-13 against the number against winning teams on the road. So tonight's matchup shapes up as a great spot all around and I really like the Pelicans to at least cover if not win straight up. 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the Indiana Pacers as my 10* NBA Personal Favorite.

Indiana is still battling for the playoffs, sitting behind the Brooklyn Nets for the eighth and final postseason ticket in the Eastern Conference. That motivation has pushed the Pacers to five straight victories heading into Tuesday’s action, going 4-1 ATS in that span.

Indiana could get some help from the Wizards, who are locked into the No. 5 spot in the Eastern Conference and could choose to limit their stars in the final two games of the season. Washington found out Monday night, following Chicago’s win over Brooklyn, that they would finish fifth in the conference, which rendered Tuesday’s tangle with the Pacers meaningless to the Wizards.

The Pacers' offense has been the motor for this team’s late surge, averaging almost 104 points per game in their last 10 outings – a major improvement from their season scoring rate of 97.5 points per game. The return of Paul George has also given Indiana some scoring depth off the bench, with George averaging 10.3 points in his first four games back from a broken leg.

The Pacers’ postseason push and the Wizards not having any stake in this game are why I’m playing on Indiana as my 10* NBA Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Sacramento Kings as my 10* NBA Personal Favorite Monday.

The Kings host the Los Angeles Lakers after three straight road games. Sacramento is coming off a 122-111 loss to the Denver Nuggets Sunday but despite having shut down its superstars, the Kings continue to produce offensively. Sacramento should be able to overtake an offensively challenged Lakers side that has just two wins in its last 10 games, going 3-6-1 ATS in that span.

Los Angeles is putting a lineup on the floor full of unknowns and is down one of their only name-brand players in Wesley Johnson, who sprained his ankle in the loss to Dallas. Johnson was one of the few offensive threats L.A. had left. The Lakers’ bench ran only three players deep in their last games, so expect an even shorter rotation for this game.

The Kings don’t have DeMarcus Cousins or Rudy Gay but are getting great production from their young role players as well as solid contributions off the bench. This is only Sacramento’s fourth home game in the past 11 outings and the home finale. We expect a spirited effort as the Kings youngsters try to up their stock for next season and give the home fans one last win to cheer for.

The Kings getting good production from their role players and the Lakers’ limited bodies are why I’m playing on Sacramento as my 10* NBA Personal Favorite Monday.

I’m playing on the Denver Nuggets as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

Denver isn’t going down without a fight, showing tremendous value in its last two games. The Nuggets stunned the Los Angeles Clippers 119-101 as 9.5-point underdogs then lost 144-143 to the Dallas Mavericks as 1.5-point favorites in their most recent contest.

Denver takes on a shell of the Sacramento Kings Sunday, with Sacramento entering full tank mode. The organization announced it was shutting down top players DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay for the remainder of the season, stripping Sacramento of most of its scoring punch. The Kings were only putting up 97.7 points per game over their last eight outings, so we could see a sharp decline in their output Sunday with these stars on the sideline.

The Nuggets can put up points in a hurry and will look to overwhelm this undermanned Kings teams with offense. Denver has averaged more than 110 points over its last five meetings with Sacramento, including a 118-108 victory over the Kings on January 9.

On top of that, a trip to Denver at this time in the season, especially with a short bench, is tough on any team. The thin air in Colorado can quickly drain the visitors’ reserves. Sacramento is just 8-19-1 ATS in its last 28 road games heading into Sunday.

The Nuggets fighting to the finish and the Kings packing it in on the road are why I’m playing on Denver as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on the Milwaukee Bucks as my 10* Early Best Bet Sunday.

The Bucks are clutching to the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference standings as the season winds down this week. Milwaukee is fighting off the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets, who they happen to play Sunday afternoon. The Bucks are just two games up on the Nets hosting Brooklyn in a huge matinee matchup.

Milwaukee stopped the bleeding from a two-game hiccup with a 99-91 road win over the New York Knicks last time out and have three wins in its last five contests – going 3-2 ATS. The Bucks continue to be one of the stingiest teams on defense and face a Brooklyn offense that is picking up steam as the postseason draws closer.

The Nets have won eight of their last 10 games thanks in large part to a surge in scoring, getting tremendous efforts from their standout players. Brooklyn has also benefited from a home-friendly slate, with all but three of those 10 contests coming inside the Barclays Center.

In those seven home stands, the Nets are averaging 110.3 points per game. In the three road games, they’re putting up just 96.6 points an outing. We expect a desperate Bucks team to turn up the intensity and give Brooklyn even more road woes Sunday afternoon. The Nets are just 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings with Milwaukee, including covering in only three of their last 10 trips to the Bradley Center.

The Bucks desperate to hang on to the No. 6 spot and the Nets’ scoring dropoff on the road are why I’m playing on Milwaukee as my 10* Early Best Bet.

I am playing on MINNESOTA. In a game that is absolutely meaningless for both the Timberwolves and the Warriors, oddsmakers have simply gotten a little carried away with this point spread and are making Golden State lay way too many. 
This is the biggest spread of the season for either team and any time we see a number like that, you have to look hard at the underdog. The second biggest number of the season for these teams came when they met Dec. 27 when the Warriors laid 18.5. Minnesota covered the number in a 13-point loss and I believe tonight's spread is too generous also. 
The Warriors are still playing their starters but I think we'll see the bench see more time if Golden State jumps out to a big lead, clearing the path for a backdoor cover with a juicy number like this. 
Minnesota has a pile of injuries lately but Andrew Wiggins has stepped up with more weight falling on his shoulders. He's averaging 26.2 points over his last five games. Wiggins is coming off maybe his best game of the year against the Lakers last night where he poured in 29 points to go along with 10 rebounds and six assists. 
I think Wiggins and the Wolves will find a way to cover this heavy number Saturday night against a Golden State team that is just 6-7 against the spread this season when it has to give away 14 points or more. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on HOUSTON. Keeping Houston down isn't an easy thing to do, as I believe the Spurs will find out tonight after beating the Rockets 110-98 last night. 
The Rockets are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss. I think we'll see a much better game from James Harden tonight, who had an unusually cold shooting game last night when he went just 6-of-15 from the field. Harden seems to play his best when he's playing with a chip on his shoulder and I think the Rockets want to put out a better performance than what they showed last night. 
"Obviously it's going to be a great test for us because (the Rockets are) going to be a little bit mad and they're going to play with a lot of energy and we're gonna have to match that," said Spurs guard Tony Parker. 
I like that the Rockets are getting points at home and they are 7-2 against the spread in the last nine meetings with the Spurs. They were on a 3-game winning streak heading into last night during which they averaged 112.3 points and I think they came into last night's game a little mentally unprepared.

I don't expect them to make the same mistake tonight. The Rockets are 12-8 against the spread against winning teams at home this season while the Spurs are 7-12 ATS against winning teams on the road. 10* Main Event

I am playing on MEMPHIS. This game has the feeling of a classic letdown spot for New Orleans, who is coming off a big upset win last night over the best team in the NBA, Golden State. 
The Pelicans had a big second half to pull off the win over Golden State, which was their fifth win in six games. Now they must turn around on no rest and play Memphis, which is battling for the No. 2 spot in the West, just one game behind the Houston Rockets. 
As if Memphis wouldn't be tough enough, I expect the Grizzlies to be playing a little angry tonight after losing 92-83 at home to Washington on Saturday and I'm surprised this line wasn't set higher. 
Memphis wasn't happy with its play in that game and has been working in practice to correct things ever since. Head coach Dave Joerger told reporters this week that the Grizzlies are approaching the game against New Orleans as a "mini playoff prep" and I expect them to be very tough and well rested.
I also like that the home team has won and covered all three meetings in this series this season and I think Memphis will complete that trend tonight. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Sacramento Kings as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

Sacramento is showing solid value against the spread as the season dwindles down, covering in three of its last four contests including back-to-back paydays in games against the Rockets and Pelicans. We like the Kings again in this spot, taking on a Utah Jazz team coming off a game Saturday.

The Jazz lost a two-point squeaker to the Phoenix Sun Saturday, snapping a three-game winning streak for Utah. The Jazz played an extremely sloppy game with 18 turnovers and now take the court on short rest in a tough letdown spot. Utah has struggled to control the ball all season, averaging 15.2 turnovers per game on the year.

Those mistakes will turn into easy baskets for the Kings, who are looking to get out a run with head coach George Karl on the sidelines. Sacramento has finally rounded into form under their new coach and has seen an uptick in offense over the past month. DeMarcus Cousins has led that charge with back-to-back triple doubles in the last two games.

Sacramento has been a solid winner versus Utah, covering the spread in 15 of their last 21 meetings and going 5-2 ATS in their last seven home stands versus the Jazz.

The Jazz in a letdown spot on the second of back-to-backs and the Kings' value against the spread are why I’m playing on Sacramento as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I am playing on PHOENIX. I successfully offered a play on the Suns when they played Thursday night and they covered the spread by 11.5 points in a last-second loss to the best team in the NBA, the Golden State Warriors.    
I am taking them again here with what is a very small spread and I believe they'll get the win on home court. T.J. Warren is a big reason why and he is a bit of a secret weapon for the Suns right now. Warren is seeing more minutes lately and has scored 17, 13 and 18 points over his last three contests. He also picked up five assists against Golden State and his efforts went a long way toward covering the spread. 
He is a big lift for Phoenix with Brandon Knight sidelined with a heel injury and he's shooting an NBA rookie best 56.9 percent from the field for the season and 61.9 percent since the All-Star break. 
Phoenix also played some great team basketball against Golden State and I think that will continue tonight. Six players finished in double figures and the weakest part of the Suns' game might have been on free throws where they shot just 65.4 percent. 
I think we'll see another great team effort against a sub.500 team whom Phoenix beat the last time these two teams met, 100-93, back in February. 10* NBA Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Kentucky Wildcats as my 10* Game Of The Year Saturday.

Kentucky got a scare in the Elite Eight, nearly letting Notre Dame upset its undefeated run to the national title. The Wildcats were playing from behind a lot of that game and will be extra motivated to get ahead on the scoreboard and stay there in Indianapolis Sunday night.

Kentucky hasn’t had many close calls this season but when coming off a tight game the Wildcats have responded with big performances. Following two close overtime wins against Ole Miss and Texas A&M, John Calipari’s kids trounced Alabama by 15 points. And after a two-point win against LSU, UK blasted South Carolina by 34 points. Of course, Wisconsin is a much stiffer challenge than those SEC rivals but this is a good habit of bouncing back strong from Kentucky, that isn't complacent just winning games.

Wisconsin was able to overwhelm Arizona inside and draw fouls on the Wildcats' key players. That forced Arizona to make some adjustments and step outside its game plan. The Badgers may have similar success versus Kentucky, but this brand of Wildcat runs much further down the bench and can pull four bodies deep from their reserves and not have the same letdown that Arizona suffered.

The Wildcats' habit of turning up the intensity and their deep rotation are why I’m playing on Kentucky as my 10* Game Of The Year Saturday.

I am playing on SACRAMENTO. Playoff hopes may be only a distant memory now for the Sacramento Kings but I feel this team is committed to continued improvement under George Karl and I like them tonight, getting points at home. 
The Kings proved they have no quit right now when they covered the spread in a tough matchup at Houston Wednesday night against the second best team in the West as far as the standings are concerned. They lost 115-111 but easily covered the 10.5 point spread and we saw some great signs that things could be on the up for this team in the future. 
Sacramento clobbered Houston in rebounds 57-42 and the Kings picked up 30 assists Wednesday night. The assists are a sign that the Kings are buying into Karl's system, which involves more ball sharing and a team-oriented offense. 
"George Karl’s system is great, and I’m not just saying that because I play for him," Omri Casspi told the Sacramento Bee recently, "but because I really do believe this is the right way to play basketball. Spacing the floor. Moving, making extra passes, sharing the ball. Getting our hands on balls, deflections, then getting out and running." 
Seven players scored in double figures against Houston Wednesday night and the Kings are scoring much more off assists this year - by about four more percent since Karl arrived - which takes them from second worst in the NBA in that category to middle of the pack. 
Center DeMarcus Cousins is playing off the charts rand is a triple double threat every night lately. He's had at least 24 points in each of his last three games and at least 17 rebounds in three of his last four games. 

Another reason I like the Kings here is they have won four of the last six meetings against the Pelicans. Throw in the points they're getting and I believe this makes for a fantastic Friday play where oddsmakers are being far too generous to the home team. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on PHOENIX. I think the Suns are getting too many points in a spot where I feel they will catch Golden State in a letdown spot. 
While it's true Phoenix has lost four in a row and the Warriors have won 10 in a row, I think that pads the pointspread coming into this game. Golden State officially has nothing left to play for after setting a franchise record for victories over the weekend and officially nailing down the No. 1 spot in the Western Conference.
Some may argue that you could have said the same thing on Monday when the Warriors won and covered against the Clippers. But that was against an in-state rival on home court and I think that's an easy one to get up for. 
Phoenix is still clinging to faint playoff hopes and playing with grit, even though the Suns have some key injuries. T.J. Warren is one player who has been stepping up as injuries hamper the lineup and he has 18 points and 13 points in his last two outings. I think he'll continue to get more comfortable and continue to contribute on a nightly basis, which could go a long way to helping Phoenix cover. 
I believe one of two things will happen tonight - either the Suns play the Warriors tough as they chase playoff hopes, or Golden State will pull away early and then put their bench on the floor, clearing the way for a back door cover with this large spread. 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the Utah Jazz as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

The Jazz have been one of the most resurgent teams in the NBA since the All-Star break, fighting their way up the Western Conference standings to sit 11th in the standings. While Utah is very unlikely to make the playoffs, it has kept battling and presents great value against a Denver Nuggets team counting down the days until the season ends.

The Jazz have turned up the defensively intensity since the break, allowing just 94.9 points per game last month – lowest in the NBA. Utah finished March with a 10-6 SU record and takes a two-game winning run into this home stand against Denver, which it has covered against in five of their last six meetings.

The Nuggets also saw a bit of a turnaround in March but finished the month with a loss at Portland. Denver has dropped four of its last six road games and isn’t get the heaping handful of points from the oddsmakers it usually gets away from home. The Nuggets have some payback coming as well, after knocking off the Jazz in the Pepsi Center just last week.

The Jazz continuing to fight through the remainder of the season and get revenge for last week’s loss to the Nuggets are why I’m playing on Utah as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday.

The Magic open the doors of the Amway Center to the streaking San Antonio Spurs, who are coming off their fourth straight victory after knocking off the Miami Heat in South Beach Tuesday. San Antonio has covered in seven of its last eight games and the market is beginning to pad the Spurs lines, opening up value on the home side Wednesday.

San Antonio faces the Magic on short rest, having flown overnight from Miami to Orlando for the second night of back-to-back games. The Magic have dropped three straight games but have enjoyed an extended break and should have had plenty of time to scout and prepare for San Antonio, having last taken the court on March 27.

Tobias Harris has been a spark since returning from an ankle injury. Not only has the versatile forward scored an average of 17.5 points in his two games back but he laid into his teammates for their sloppy play following the loss to Detroit. Orlando recorded 17 turnovers versus the Pistons and averages 14.9 giveaways on the season. With four days off to tighten up the offense, we are expecting a cleaner game from Orlando.

The Spurs playing the second half of a back-to-back against a well-rested and prepared Magic team are why I’m playing on Orlando as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as my 10* TNT Main Event Tuesday.

The Clippers can make a huge statement with a win over the Golden State Warriors Thursday, setting the tone for the Western Conference playoffs. I see tremendous value in a Los Angeles team that has no qualms about burying an opponent if they get up on the scoreboard.

The Clippers have won seven straight games heading into this massive matchup with Golden State. And while the level of competition wasn’t that high for this winning streak – featuring the likes of Philadelphia, New York, and Sacramento – the fact L.A. came out of those seven games with a 5-2 ATS record speaks volumes as to how this team is playing right now.

The Warriors are also rolling, with a nine-game winning streak heading into this showdown at the Staples Center. However, six of those wins came at home and Golden State is wrapping up a four-game road trip in Los Angeles, where it has covered in just two of its previous eight road games versus the Clippers.

Los Angeles has the size to give Golden State fits, especially on the boards where the Warriors have been pushed around all season. The Clippers out-rebounded the Celtics 53-40 in their most recent outing, including 13 offensive rebounds. Golden State is giving up 12 offensive boards a game and watched Milwaukee snatch up 15 in its last contest.

The Clippers motivated to make a statement and their ability to dominate the Warriors on the boards are why I’m playing on Los Angeles as my 10* TNT Main Event Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Temple Owls as my 10* ESPN Main Event Tuesday.

The Owls have steamrolled their way through the NIT and face Miami in the tournament semifinals. Temple won its last two games by a combined 31 points and has averaged 80 points in the NIT heading to Madison Square Garden.

Miami’s path to the tournament semis hasn’t been as smooth. The Hurricanes squeaked out a two-point win in Richmond to advance to MSG and has won their three NIT games by a combined 14 points. Miami doesn’t run the same pace as Temple nor has it been as efficient on offense, with the Owls knocking down 46 percent of their shot in the NIT.

Temple spreads its scoring load over three players, with Will Cummings, Jesse Morgan, and Quenton DeCosey making up a tough trio to lock down. The Hurricanes have been leaning on Sheldon McClellan, especially with star point guard Angel Rodriguez out with a wrist injury. While the Owls are getting it done with scoring, they also sat among the best defensive teams in the country, limiting opponents to just 61.2 points per game.

The Owls’ balanced scoring and momentum are why I’m playing on Temple as my 10* ESPN Main Event Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Toronto Raptors as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

Toronto is trying to push itself up the Eastern Conference standings, currently sitting in fourth place but just one and a half games back of the Chicago Bulls for the No. 3 seed. The Raptors got a much-needed win against the Lakers last time out and roll that momentum over into this home stand with Houston.

The Rockets take the court for the second night of back-to-back games after playing in Washington Sunday. Houston started hot but let up in the second half, nearly letting the Wizards back into the game. The Rockets have had that bad habit all year, scoring 53.5 points per first half – second most in the NBA - then suffering a power outage in the final two frames, averaging only 49.1 points in the second half – ranked 18th in the league.

That letdown fits Toronto perfectly. The Raptors have also been cursed with a similar issue, unable to close out games. The Raptors have allowed 25.3 points per fourth quarter this season, watching numerous games slip away in the final 12 minutes. However, Toronto turned in a solid 23-point fourth versus the Lakers, limiting L.A. to just 17 points. The Raptors average 25.9 fourth-quarter points at home - fifth most in the NBA.

The Rockets’ bad habit of letting up in the second half and the Raptors pushing through their fourth quarter issues are why I’m playing on Toronto as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

I am playing on LOUISVILLE. I have taken Louisville the past two games and I believe it's going to pay off for a third straight game as head coach Rick Pitino makes his 12th appearance in the Elite Eight.

The Cardinals definitely picked the right time to play their best basketball of the season and they are beating teams however they need to, whether with suffocating defense or balanced offense. This is a completely different team than the one we saw stumble for a stretch of three losses in four games in February and now the Cards are looking like world beaters - and they are still being underestimated by oddsmakers by getting points here against Michigan State.  

"At the beginning of the season, there was too much 1-on-1,'' guard Quentin Snider said after Friday's win over N.C. State. "Too many guys worried about themselves. Now, we're playing as a team."

Snider is right about that. Louisville is back to playing incredible team defense, throwing zones, presses and tough man-to-man play into the mix throughout games. The result is they are surrendering just 57.3 points per game through the tournament and that's against some pretty hot shooting teams like Northern Iowa and the Wolf Pack.

The Cardinals are also getting huge performances - from the usual stars and some emerging ones - on offense. Team leading scorer Terry Rozier is off the charts right now at guard and is coming off a 17-point performance and a season-high 14 rebounds against N.C. State.

Louisville had four scorers finish in double figures in the Sweet 16 including Montrezl Harrell's 24 points. Harrell is the second leading scorer and playing great ball but there's also Quentin Snider, a freshman who averaged just 4 points this season, who now has scored in double digits in all three tourney games.

It seems like everything is coming together at the right time for Louisville and I like them to slip past Michigan State. The Cardinals won the last tournament meeting between these two in 2012, 57-44, when Louisville went on to win the national championship. 10* Elite Eight Game Of The Year

I am playing on MILWAUKEE. You may not have guessed it but the Bucks actually love playing Golden State when it comes to covering the spread. Milwaukee is 7-1-1 against the number in the last nine meetings including covering the last two times these teams met despite the fact the Warriors won. 
Now the Bucks are getting points on home court where they typically perform far better than on the road this season. Milwaukee enters this game after two solid wins against Miami (as an underdog) and the Pacers and I think the Bucks will at least keep it very close against the Warriors. 
Everyone knows Golden State is on fire these days but the Warriors enter this game after playing at Memphis just last night. I think we might see a bit of fatigue in their legs in this back-to-back spot in what is the third game of a four-game, cross-country road trip. 
The Bucks are playing great basketball right now and getting key contributions from players who are stepping up as they hold onto sixth place in the Eastern playoff standings. Ersan Ilyasova scored a career-high 34 points on Thursday and center Zaza Pachulia piled up 14 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists in a big night against Miami two games ago. 
Golden State has first place in the West pretty much wrapped up so I'm not sure how much the Warriors have left to play for as they cruise toward the start of the playoffs. I think a more desperate Milwaukee squad that's getting points at home will find a way to cover or win outright Saturday night. 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the Oklahoma Sooners as my 10* Friday Best Bet.

The Sooners have taken care of business in their first two tournament games and now face the Michigan State Spartans in the Round of 16 Friday. No. 3 Oklahoma has shown why it’s one of the most balanced teams in the country, getting it done on both ends of the floor in the NCAA so far.

However, the betting market is overreacting to Michigan State’s impressive upset over No. 2 Virginia in the Round of 32 and actually has the No. 7 Spartans set as the betting favorite. We’re capitalizing on this public opinion and taking the Sooners to cover.

The Spartans were solid in their win over the Cavaliers but also caught Virginia in a very poor game. The Cavaliers were ice cold from beyond the arc and didn’t play their brand of defense. Undoubtedly, Tom Izzo coached this team up for the upset but it also sets MSU up for a massive letdown in the Sweet 16.

Oklahoma plays a much more frenetic pace than what the Spartans are used to dealing with. The Sooners average 71.9 points on 69.9 possessions per game and will look to push the tempo and catch MSU on its heels before it can get set in the halfcourt. The Spartans have had great success stuffing teams with help defense in slower-paced games but won’t have that on their side as the Sooners turn up the intensity.

The market shift toward the Spartans and the Sooners’ ability to beat MSU down the floor are why I’m playing on Oklahoma as my 10* Friday Best Bet.

I am playing on LOUISVILLE. It seems like everyone kind of forgot Rick Pitino's teams can play some pretty good defense when they want to and as a result we are only seeing Louisville lay a tiny number here.

The Cards are playing their best hoops of the season at the right time and despite the national attention, it doesn't look to me like oddsmakers have quite caught on yet. The Cardinals have allowed fewer than 60 points in six of their last eight games and have allowed an average of 54 per game through their first two games of the tournament.

Louisville shut down one of the hottest shooting teams in the nation in Northern Iowa last game, winning 66-53. They held the Panthers to 39 percent on field goals (after a season average of 48%) and just 31.6% on 3-pointers after UNI shot over 40 percent from long range for the season. The Panthers also had a horrendous 10 turnovers against nine assists, a testament to the Cards' stifling play.

The Cards are switching it up with zones and man coverage as well as pressing at different times. I just don't feel N.C. State wants to get into that kind of game as a squad that gives up over 70 points a game on neutral courts this season.

The Cardinals are getting big offensive performances from their usual stars like Rozier and Harrell, but also from unexpected players like Quentin Snider who has 10 and 16 points in the tournament after averaging 3.8 all season.

With defense like Louisville is playing right now and production from unexpected places, don't be surprised if the Cards keep going into March and covering spreads along the way. 10* Friday Personal Favorite

I am playing on WISCONSIN. Beating the Badgers takes a lot more stopping potential national player of the year Frank Kaminsky and I don't feel the Tar Heels have enough to pull off the upset or cover the spread here.

Oregon tried to double team the big man, who averages 18.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.5 blocks. The Ducks swarmed and double teamed Kaminsky but he still managed 16 points while three of his teammates scored at least 12. Sam Dekker ripped off 17 - 14 in the second half- and is draining at least half his 2-pointers in four of his last five games.

Nigel Hayes is another versatile forward who hasn't scored fewer than 15 points in any of his last four games while also grabbing at least five boards in those efforts - not to mention an average of three assists per game during those games.

I just don't think UNC can match up in the front court here where big forward Kennedy Meeks is listed as doubtful and will likely be hurting if he does play.

The Badgers might just be too much for anybody right now with at least 70 points in seven straight games. Wisconsin can also play some defense with just 56.8 points against this season, which is about 12 fewer than UNC allows.

Bettors saw the value here on Wisconsin and pounced early. I still feel this line isn't high enough and UNC won't have the guns to keep up and cover the number. 10* Sweet 16 Game Of The Year

I am playing on NOTRE DAME. I think we have some added value on the Irish in this game because most bettors are going to be focusing on the fact they have failed to cover in eight straight tournament games.

But don't let that scare you. The bigger focus should be on the two most recent games where Notre Dame just happened to be laying too many against two very good teams but still managed to gut out wins.

I'm not sure there are any other No. 3 seeds who had as tough an opening weekend as Notre Dame in facing Northeastern and Butler and I think the gritty victories will give the team a huge lift of confidence heading into the Sweet 16.

This is an offense vs. defense battle and I believe Notre Dame's No. 12 nationally ranked scoring offense will prevail. The Irish average 78.2 points per game and they rely on 50 percent field goal shooting and nearly 40 percent 3-point shooting to blow opponents away. It's how they claimed the ACC tournament championship in beating UNC 90-82.

Another element I like about the Irish is they adjusted from game to game in the first weekend and have done what they needed to do to advance. They got badly outrebounded by Northeastern 31-36, but they turned things around against Butler. Notre Dame won the boards 36-31 against a very good rebounding squad in Butler, which shows me they are adapting to who they're playing.

I think believe we'll see Notre Dame’s best game of the tournament when they face Wichita State and I love that they are getting points. 10* Thursday Best Bet

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns are suddenly a bettor's best friend with four straight wins and covered spreads and I like them to continue that trend Wednesday night against Sacramento. 
The biggest reason why Phoenix has become such a great bet is the team has finally committed to defense as they make a run to sneak into the playoffs as it sits three games out of the picture. The Suns have gone from one of the worst defensive clubs in the NBA with over 103 points against per game to allowing just 90.2 points against over their past five. 
The Suns have actually held opponents to fewer than 100 points in seven of their last eight games and eight of their last nine games have fallen under the total. They are shockingly third in NBA defensive efficiency over the past 15 games, something I'm sure Phoenix fans thought they'd never see this season. 
I believe two things are happening - the Suns are finally buying into Jeff Hornacek's systems after the trades of Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic and they are going with a bigger lineup. 
Phoenix had to move to a bigger lineup after Brandon Knight suffered an ankle injury and P.J. Tucker was moved from small forward to shooting guard. Tucker is kicking butt on defense by shutting down the opposition's stars from that spot and Phoenix is also rebounding much better. 
They've outrebounded the competition by an average of 51-39 during the four-game winning streak. Tucker was also instrumental in holding James Harden to 16 points (Harden averages 27 per game) and the Mavs' Monta Ellis to 11 points (who leads the Mavs with 19 points per game). 
Sacramento beat the Suns in the last meeting in early February but I think the Kings are going to see a completely different and much improved Suns team and I don't believe they'll be able to adjust -- much like the rest of Phoenix's competition lately. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Sacramento Kings as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

It’s a toilet bowl game on Tuesday with the Philadelphia 76ers facing the Sacramento Kings in a battle of NBA basement dwellers. However, being at the bottom of the Western Conference is much different than being at the bottom of the East, and we like the situational spot the Kings find themselves in versus the Sixers.

Philadelphia is in the middle game of a three-stop West Coast road trip, playing far away from home in a late 10 p.m. ET tipoff. The 76ers are just 12-20-2 ATS on the road this season and have struggled with teams from the Pacific Division, going 2-10 ATS in their last 12 non-conference encounters with Pacific opponents.

The Kings snapped a four-game losing skid with back-to-back home wins over Eastern opponents, defeating the Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards heading into Tuesday’s action. The Kings’ current form has a lot to with their hot hand from outside, draining 17 of their last 38 looks from 3-point range. They buried eight triples (8 for 17) in the win over Washington Sunday. Sacramento is also out for revenge against Philadelphia in this matchup, having lost 114-107 in Philly earlier this month.

The Sixers’ road woes and the Kings coming into this game with the hot hand are why I’m playing on Sacramento as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Brooklyn Nets as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Nets are quickly pulling toward the front of the Eastern Conference playoff race, having won two in a row and four of their last five to sit one game back of the Charlotte Hornets for the eighth and final postseason spot – and just half a game behind Monday’s opponent, the Boston Celtics.

Brooklyn has been pouring on the points during this run, with five players averaging double-digit scoring efforts over the previous five games. The Nets offense isn’t just a flash in the pan either, taking the fight to the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks – two of the stingiest teams in the conference – the past two games. Center Brook Lopez has been a monster inside, with a total of 58 points, 22 rebounds and nine blocks in those two contests.

Boston, on the other hand, looks to be running out of steam. The Celtics have dropped three in a row and are coming off an overtime loss to the Detroit Pistons Sunday night. If Boston was feeling the effects of a long season before that, it will be running on empty against an energized Brooklyn squad Monday night on the road.

The Nets’ offensive explosion and the Celtics running on fumes on back-to-back games are why I’m playing on Brooklyn as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

I am playing on LOUISVILLE. The Cardinals are in a good place as far as bettors are concerned coming into this matchup and it may not be what you think – it’s on the road and as an underdog.

This solid Louisville squad typically saw too much chalk at home this season and when favored in general and the numbers show it. The Cardinals were a wallet-burning 8-17 against the number as a favorite this season compared to 3-2 ATS as an underdog. They were also 4-12-2 ATS at home compared to a much less costly 7-7 ATS on the road.

So I really like that they are getting points here and I think it has a lot to do with how their first game went. Louisville barely scraped past UC Irvine 57-55 and I think that has them undervalued here.

A big reason why that game was so close was the matchup between Montrezl Harrell and UCI’s 7-foot-6, 300-pound center Mamadou Ndiaye. Normally Louisville doesn't have so much trouble in the post and the Cards need Harrell to play well in order to keep advancing. I think he'll do so against a more manageable Seth Tuttle, a 6-foot-8, 240-pound forward who will feel like a smurf compared to Ndiaye.

Northern Iowa also likes to beat up on teams with a hot 3-ball but Louisville is holding opponents to just 29.4 percent from long range this season and the numbers were even better on the road.

I think an undervalued, pro-coached Louisville squad moves past Northern Iowa in a tough game that will be worth watching. 10* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR

I am playing on NOTRE DAME. After successfully taking Northeastern to cover the big number against the Irish, I now believe Notre Dame will win and cover in its next game on Saturday.

For those thinking Notre Dame just didn't play well on Thursday, I don't really think that was entirely the case. The Irish simply ran into a pretty good Northeastern team that was being undervalued by oddsmakers and they got the job done.

I think this second game is a better matchup for Notre Dame. Butler is a small squad with no player listed over 6-9 and it wins with defense and turnovers. I don't think they'll be able to slow a more talented Irish squad enough to cover the number and Notre Dame is usually pretty good at taking care of the ball.

I think Butler may have trouble keeping up with Notre Dame with this one with their leading scorer, Roosevelt Jones, playing on a sprained knee (if he does play). Jones was visibly limping when he returned to the game against Texas from the injury and with Notre Dame's 78.5 points per game, this is a team you need all your scorers for.

Notre game is shooting an awesome 51.2 percent on field goals on the season and 39.2 percent from downtown, which is significantly better than Butler in both areas.

One of the spots that could also really hurt Butler is free throw shooting where it drains shots at just 68.1 percent. Notre Dame isn't known for letting teams get to the line too often and I feel that could be a key difference in them getting Notre Dame its sixth covered spread in seven games. 10* personal fav

I’m playing on the Arkansas Razorbacks as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

Both North Carolina and Arkansas got a scare in the Round of 64, with UNC escaping with a win against Harvard and Arkansas just dodging the upset bullet versus Wofford. North Carolina is set as the favorite in this Round of 32 contest but will have a tough matchup with the Hogs.

Arkansas has one of the best big men in the country, with NBA-bound Bobby Portis coming off a 15-point, 13-rebound effort in the win over the Terriers. North Carolina is used to having the most talented forwards on the floor and could struggle to contain Portis, especially on the boards. The Heels depend on controlling the glass to give themselves second-chance looks and may not find those as easily Saturday.

North Carolina played a very sloppy game against the Crimson in the Round of 64, turning the ball over 18 times. The Heels coughed the ball up 13 times in the loss to Notre Dame in the ACC championship and average 16.3 turnovers over their last three games. Arkansas is one of the best pressure teams in the country, ranked 13th in turnovers forced (15.7 per game) and 29th in steals (7.7 points per game). Those takeaways led to easy buckets for the Razorbacks.

The Razorbacks matching UNC’s size inside and their ability to capitalize on a sloppy Tar Heels team are why I’m playing on Arkansas as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns have quietly turned into a scorching hot bet and that has flown under the radar because of their straight up record. 
Phoenix has covered six of its last eight games, though the team has turned out a modest 5-3 straight up record during that stretch and the wins haven't been the prettiest. The Suns have run into some cold shooting lately and as a result they are winning with something we haven't seen much of from them this season - defense. 
It hasn't helped that Brandon Knight and Alex Len have been injured the last couple of games but the defense has stepped up to hold six straight teams to fewer than 100 points. That's not something we're used to seeing from a Suns squad that gives up a generous 103.8 points per game. 
Phoenix held the Pelicans to an embarrassing 72 points in a win Thursday night, which was also the seventh straight game to go 'under' for the Suns. I think they'll use that tough defensive effort to at least cover the spread against Houston Saturday night. 
The Rockets have won all three meetings this season but they were higher scoring affairs that saw an average of 221 points per game. I think they may struggle a little more against a different Suns team that can suddenly play some defense and is playing desperate basketball in hopes of making the playoffs. 
Eric Bledsoe has also been a nice bright spot for Phoenix lately since the Dragic and Thomas trades. He has averaged 16.5 points, 6.5 assists and 6.5 rebounds since then and only Russell Westbrook, LeBron James and James Harden average at least 15 points, six rebounds and six assists since the All-Star game and trade deadline. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on IOWA. Davidson is one of those teams that poolies love to pencil in on their brackets before tourney time but I feel Iowa is the better squad and will move on from this matchup.

The Hawkeyes play much better defense in a tougher conference and I feel they'll be able to get the stops they need them to move past the Wildcats. Iowa also holds a size advantage over Davidson's starting five with the Wildcats' tallest starter going at 6-7 and the other four listed at 6-4 and smaller. The Hawkeyes have three starters at 6-9 or bigger and I feel Iowa can dominate around the basket and in rebounding.

Iowa's Aaron White could be the difference maker in this game as one of the nation's most underrated players. He's the only player in the country to average over 16 points and over seven rebounds, while shooting above a 50 percent from the field and 80 percent from the free throw line. White highlights a great free-throw shooting team in general, where the Hawkeyes rank 34th in the nation at the charity stripe compared to 273rd for Davidson.

The two teams had one common opponent this season, North Carolina, and Iowa fared much better. The Hawkeyes beat North Carolina on Dec. 3 while the Tar Heels defeated Davidson, 90-72, Nov. 11 in Charlotte.  10* Opening Game Of The Year

I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. You don't often see revenge or redemption as a key factor in an early round NCAA matchup but I think it will be a big element for Oklahoma State in this game. 
The Cowboys fell to Oregon in the teams' NCAA opener in 2013 68-55 and Oklahoma State will be extra hungry to win this one on Friday. Le'Bryan Nash, Michael Cobbins and Phil Forte are all back for OK State after being key parts of that 2013 team, while Oregon doesn't have any returning players from 2013. 
That makes this a very young Ducks team with six freshman, half of whom have made at least 10 starts this season. That makes me skeptical about how far their experience level can take them when the spotlight of the NCAA tournament is shining on them. 
Oregon had a hot finish to the season but got absolutely clobbered by Arizona in the Pac-12 final, 80-52, when the pressure was on against a top team. 
I think Oklahoma State comes into this a little underestimated. Nash is an NBA prospect with 17.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game and he's the kind of player who can take a game over. Phil Forte III also drains threes at 39 percent and averaged 15.1 points per game this season. 
Oklahoma State also ranked 22nd in blocks and 26th in steals per game this season and I think they surprise some people by advancing past Oregon. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on GEORGETOWN. Eastern Washington seems to be one of the more popular upset picks heading into March Madness but I'm not buying it. 
A big part of the hype is that the Eagles own the nation's top scorer in sophomore guard Tyler Harvey who averages 22.9 points per game. No doubt he's a great player but it's not like anyone is going to embarrass Georgetown at the guard position. 
The Hoyas have their own star guard in junior D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, who tops the team with 16.2 points per game. To complement Smith-Rivera Georgetown has a big size advantage with the monstrous Joshua Smith. The 6-10, 350-pound beast averages 11.1 points and 5.9 rebounds and I think will give Eastern Washington a matchup fit with the Eagles' tallest starter being 6-8. 
Georgetown has depth advantage also with a regular rotation of seven players and eight players are averaging at least five points per game. 
Where I feel Eastern Washington is really going to lose out is on defense, where the Hoyas are considerably better. They allow almost 10 fewer points per game than the Eagles in a much tougher conference and own better defensive shooting numbers across the board than Eastern Washington. 10* Thursday Personal Favorite

I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns haven't played since Sunday and enter this game fully rested and prepared. I think they'll earn a valuable win against the team one spot ahead of them in the chase for the final playoff spot.

Phoenix has the toughest closing stretch of schedule of any team in the NBA where only two of its opponents own sub-.500 records. So games at home with this kind of rest and preparation time are ones the Suns can't afford to lose.

Besides the prep time and home court, one big reason I like the Suns is the Pelicans enter this one shooting on the cold side from 3-point range. They went 8-of-25 against the Bucks last game and just 6-of-22 against the Nuggets two games ago.

Another reason I like Phoenix is the Suns have won four of the last five meetings straight up against the Pelicans for a 3-2 against the spread record. The Pelicans won the only meeting this year 110-106, but I think the Suns learned from that meeting.

With Brandon Knight's status in doubt, hobbled on an injured ankle, the Suns may go with a bigger lineup than usual. I believe that's a better way to go against a bigger Pelicans squad and with Phoenix shooting slightly better from 3-point range right now, I think the Suns manage to pull this one out. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on UCLA. The Bruins have taken a lot of flak for even being named to the tournament but that gives them a little extra from oddsmakers in my opinion. 
The Bruins played the toughest schedule of any Pac-12 team and I think their record is a little better than the numbers indicate. They’ll play another tough opponent and UCLA definitely holds an experience edge with this being their third straight NCAA tournament. SMU was strong all season but I expect they’ll feel the heat of the raised stakes in what will be the Mustangs’ first tourney appearance since 1993. 
UCLA is playing its best ball of the season with nine wins in its last 13 regular season games and the Bruins were one of the best bets in the country during that stretch with 10 covered spreads. They threatened Arizona in the Pac-12 tourney, who is a legit Final Four possibility. 
The Bruins feature five players who average double figures this season and they are averaging an explosive 81 points per game over their last five. They’re shooting 52 percent from field goal range and better than 44 percent from downtown over those games. 
If they can make this a shooting contest against SMU, and I believe they can, I think they move on to the next round. They should also approach this game with all the pressure squarely on SMU after the media ripped the tournament committee all week after giving them a ticket to the Dance. 10* Thurs. Afternoon Best Bet

I am playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. Boston may be on a hot run overall right now with five straight wins, but win it comes to playing the Thunder, the Celtics are nothing but ice cold. 
Boston has lost and failed to cover in the last four meetings with OKC and has lost and failed to cover in seven of the last eight meetings. It didn’t exactly bode well for the C’s that this game opened with a point spread of 7 either – the Thunder are 7-2 against the spread this season when favored by 7 or 7.5 points. 
I think OKC should be favored by more here but the absence of Kevin Durant is giving the Thunder more value. They have actually covered the spread in three straight games and we all know Russell Westbrook is a nightly triple-double threat without Durant in the lineup in a run that’s blowing everyone’s mind. 
His worst statistical performance over his last 10 games was a 24-point, 9 rebound, seven assist effort against the Clippers on March 11. So we can pretty much assume he’s going to go off on a nightly basis. Enes Kanter also has four double-doubles in his last five games and I just don’t think the Celtics will be able to match up on the road. 
OKC needs games like this if it wants to ensure making the playoffs. The Thunder only get two more cracks at losing Eastern Conference teams this season – this game and another against the Heat. 
I believe they’ll capitalize.  10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on ARIZONA STATE. Under just about any other circumstance this season, I don't believe there's any way UConn would only be favored by only a few points at home against an Arizona State squad. 
But there's a factor in this point spread that won't show up on the stats sheet and that's the letdown factor. UConn, who is coming off a national championship from a year ago, knew the only way it was going to qualify for the tournament was by winning the AAC tournament. Just like last year and just like once before that when the school amazingly went on to win the NCAA title. 
And it seemed fated for a while over the weekend when UConn stormed to the title game but ultimately fell to SMU in a tough game where team star Ryan Boatright was held to just seven points on 1-for-7 field goal shooting and 1-for-9 3-point shooting. 
Now the Huskies have to somehow find a way to pick their tails up from between their legs and convince themselves the NIT is worth tying up their laces for. 
"We’ve got another opportunity to play in front of our fans, put that jersey on,” said head coach Kevin Ollie. “Basically, that’s it." 
Yep. Basically that's about it. 
I also like the fact that the NIT is experimenting with a shorter, 30 second shot clock which cuts five seconds off the current number. That should encourage a faster pace, which leans to Arizona State’s favor.  10* Best Bet

I am playing on the CLIPPERS. The Clippers are simply a more talented team than the Hornets and I feel they’ll  cover here on home court. 
Blake Griffin returned to the lineup Sunday after missing 15 games to injury and the Clippers fell to Houston 100-98. The first game back from an injury for star player is often a tough one for both the player and his team and it’s not overly surprising to me the Clippers didn’t beat the Rockets. 
Griffin only had 11 points , about half his per-game average, and he forced it a little too much on 4-for-10 field goal shooting. But I think he’ll rebound with a big game against a weaker opponent after shaking some game rust off in his return. 
Charlotte doesn’t exactly love L.A. either. The Hornets have failed to cover in four straight road games against the Clippers and they are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 meetings overall. 
The Hornets are also playing on back-to-back nights and could be fresh meat for the Clippers. Charlotte was humiliated in Utah in a 94-66 defeat in which the team failed to cover by a sickening 23.5 points. 
So the Hornets aren’t exactly storming into L.A. with a ton of confidence after an ice-cold shooting display in Utah where they shot worse than 30 percent from the field and went just 5-for-19 on 3-pointers.  
That’s rough to bounce back from and I feel the Clippers will take advantage. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on UTEP.  What is often the biggest factor in the NIT tournament is one that will never show up on a stats sheet or box score. It's the motivation factor. 
In this case I feel Murray State won't have it after failing to qualify for the NCAA tournament following a soul crushing loss to Belmont in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game two weekends ago. 
It was an 88-87 scrape-out win for Belmont that came on a miracle three-pointer with 3.2 seconds left and it's that one-point that makes it so tough for Murray State.  
“That’s the first time I’ve walked through a handshake line and I had nothing to say,” Murray State coach Steve Prohm said last week. “I tried to be as gracious as I could, but everything was just knocked out of you. Our guys were just an emotional wreck.”
The loss snapped an incredible 25-game winning streak - including a 16-0 record in conference play - for the Racers that was rendered irrelevant by one precious point.
If the Racers played sooner after that loss, I think it might have been better for them. But 11 days is a long time to think about what went wrong and I don't think the layoff does them any favors here. 
Their hopes were crushed again on Selection Sunday when they weren't chosen for the tournament instead of having their attention focused on this game.
UTEP didn't have that problem and the NIT could be an opportunity to make it to MSG. I love that they are getting points here and they should be motivated to play on national TV in March with the chance to pull off a decent team in its own gym. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on the HEAT. I think we have an inflated line here with what I perceive to be a public perception that leans to have LeBron’s Cavs having a big showing against his former team.  
“Wherever LeBron goes, the attention goes with him,” said Miami’s Dwyane Wade.
James scored 30 points in his first trip back to Miami on Christmas Day but it was all for not as the Heat beat Cleveland 101-91 on Christmas Day. He scored 18 in a more balanced attack for Cleveland in the second meeting this season, a 10-point win for the Cavs in Cleveland. 
We don’t know if LeBron will play tonight. He had a bad fall on his right leg in last night’s game in Orlando and is listed as questionable.  If he does play, he could be slowed by the injury. Kevin Love is also a little banged up with a back injury and though he is expected to play he may not be at 100 percent. 
Another reason I like Miami here is they’ve been bouncing back from tough games lately with great performances. They are 5-0-2 against the spread following a loss and they lost in their last game, 102-92., to the Raptors. 
I think the addition of Goran Dragic since the last time the Heat faced Cleveland should help also. Dragic is averaging 16.4 points and 4.9 assists in 10 games since joining the Heat.  The Heat did not match up well against Cleveland at guard in the last meeting when Wade missed the game and Mario Chalmers and Shabazz Napier started in the back court. The Heat will provide a much tougher matchup this time around. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on WASHINGTON. I feel the Wizards are getting a great line here, maybe in part because the Blazers blew out a couple of bad teams in their most recent games. 
The Blazers are playing well lately, winning eight of their last 10 but they’ve blown up struggling squads  (Detroit and Toronto)  their last two games for 113 and 118 points and I think that has this line a little inflated. All five starters scored in double figures on Sunday against the Raptors but Toronto can’t play any kind of defense right now and the Raps don’t have the talent to keep up with Portland. 
That’s not the case in Washington, where the Wizards have a solid starting five that starts of course with John Wall. Wall is tied for the league lead with 10 assists per game and leads guards in the league with 34 double doubles this season.  He’s coming off a season tying high of 31 points against Sacramento where he also dished out 12 assists. 
Portland is going to have a much tougher time defending the Wizards than some of their more recent opponents the Wiz can play some defense too.  They rank eighth in the league at points against per game and seventh in defending field goals. They’ve also held their opponents to a combined 37 points in the fourth quarter in their last three wins. 
I don’t think Portland is going get as many easy buckets tonight as they’ve been seeing lately and I think the Wizards pull off this win on home court.  It’s worth noting that Portland is also 1-6 against the spread in the last seven meetings in Washington. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Toronto Raptors as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

Toronto finally snapped a four-game losing skid with a victory over the Miami Heat Friday and build on that against the visiting Portland Trail Blazers Sunday. The Raptors have enjoyed some time off after the victory to study what worked for the team after such a nasty slide.

Toronto was having issues closing out games, allowing 25.5 points per fourth quarter this season, but held off the Heat for a much-need victory. The Raptors got a big boost from the bench down the stretch, with the reserves scoring a collective 40 points in the win. Portland doesn’t boast that same depth and ranks second last in the NBA in bench scoring, getting an average of only 25.9 points per game from its reserves.

Portland hasn’t shown much of a weakness since losing Wesley Matthews for the season due to injury. The Blazers have gone 7-1 in their last eight games, however, closer inspection of that record has five of those games coming in the Rose Garden – one of the NBA’s toughest venues – and the remaining three road games were against the Lakers, Timberwolves and Kings.

We expect Portland to face its first true test of depth Sunday night on the road against a hungry Toronto squad fighting to stay in the No. 3 spot in the Eastern Conference.

The Raptors' deep bench and the Blazers’ overrated winning run are why I’m playing on Toronto as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on the SMU Mustangs as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

Southern Methodist has proven it is the class of the AAC all season and can lock up a conference it’s dominated with a win over UConn in the conference tournament championship Sunday. The Mustangs are coming off a very impressive victory over Temple in the AAC semifinals, taking down a talented Owls team in a 69-56 win.

Southern Methodist isn’t going to be taking the Huskies lightly and, in fact, will be out for some revenge Sunday after losing to Connecticut in their most recent meeting – an 81-73 loss in Storrs back on March 1. The Mustangs did handle the Huskies at home with a 73-55 victory in mid-February, limiting UConn to 34 percent shooting and forcing 15 turnovers.

Southern Methodist is well aware the Huskies have a home-court edge in Hartford, where the UConn faithful have not been kind to SMU so far this weekend, raining down boos and chants of “overrated” during the Mustangs’ matchups. Head coach Larry Brown will undoubtedly use that challenge to spark a fire under his players Sunday.

SMU is ranked among the top defenses in the country, allowing just 59.9 points per game, and will turn its attention to Connecticut star Ryan Boatright, who is the heart and soul of the UConn offense. The Mustangs will throw their pressure at the Huskies, hoping to capitalize with easy buckets off of turnovers, but can also plug up the paint, having shown a solid zone defense in the win over Temple.

The Mustangs hard-nosed defense and dominance over this conference all season are why I’m playing on SMU as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on San Diego State as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Aztecs take on the upstart Wyoming Cowboys in the Mountain West Conference championship, following Wyoming’s stunning overtime victory against Boise State Friday night. The Cowboys are ripe for a letdown in this short turnaround, taking on an SDSU squad that has played in the conference title game in six of the last seven seasons.

The Aztecs won both meetings against Wyoming this season, dropping the Cowboys 67-41 at home and 60-52 on the road. San Diego did take advantage of a shorthanded Cowboys roster in that most recent meeting, with Wyoming star Larry Nance Jr. dealing with illness. However, SDSU has locked down all comers during its first two games of the MWC tournament, including a 56-43 win over Colorado State Friday, and will be up to the challenge again Saturday.

On top of that smothering defense, the Aztecs have three proven scorers in Dwayne Polee, Winston Shepard and Aqeel Quinn. That trio combined for 44 points in the win over the Rams, and all three average double figures on the season. The Cowboys have a tough defense – ranked sixth in the country – but may not have the scoring depth to keep up with SDSU. Outside of Nance, Wyoming leans heavily on Josh Adams to spark the offense. If the Aztecs defense can take one of those two away, the Cowboys could crumble under the big-game pressure.

The Cowboys primed for a letdown and the Aztecs' championship experience are why I’m playing on San Diego State as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I’m playing on the VCU Rams as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

The Rams have some unfinished business with the Davidson Wildcats in the Atlantic 10 semifinals Saturday. Virginia Commonwealth, which welcomed the Wildcats to the A-10 with a 71-65 win back in January, took one on the chin in their most recent meeting.

Davidson handed VCU its worse loss of the Shaka Smart era, dropping the Rams 82-55 just last week. That one-sided defeat was part of a season-ending slide for VCU, which tumbled from first to fifth in the conference while the Wildcats caught fire and took over the No. 1 seed for the tournament. We expect this to be a huge revenge spot for VCU, which is always a dangerous underdog come March.

The Rams will throw their famed pressure defense at the Wildcats attack, looking to cause chaos and score off of Davidson’s mistakes. Virginia Commonwealth forced and average of 16.6 turnovers per contest and ranked second in the country in steals, swiping nearly 10 per game. In their first meeting with the Wildcats, the Rams forced 15 turnovers and recorded 13 steals.

Davidson may be slowing down after an incredible run. The Wildcats nearly got upset by La Salle Friday night, shooting just 39 percent from the field while allowing the Explorers to knock down half their looks . They were down as many as 18 points – a deficit the Rams won’t relinquish if they get up Saturday.

The Rams out for revenge and the Wildcats perhaps peaking too soon are why I’m playing on VCU as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I am playing on DALLAS. The Mavs have been in a funk recently, which means we're dealing with a small spread here, but I think they're about to break out of their losing ways with a big win on Friday. 
There's nothing a team can fix faster than a lack of effort and it's sounding like that's been the biggest problem for Dallas lately. Recent addition to the Dallas locker room, Amar'e Stoudemire, blasted his team after a 127-94 loss to the Cavaliers Tuesday night. 
"We can't screw around in shootarounds and practices and joke around all the time and figure we're going to win games," Stoudemire said. "This is the pros. It's the highest level of basketball. We've got to act that way." and head coach Rick Carlisle followed up." 
Head coach Rick Carlisle seemed to agree because Wednesday's practice ran an hour longer than scheduled and had a more serious tone than usual. 
I think the Mavs will get the message and I expect to see a completely different team against the Clippers Friday night. It's not really something that shows up in the box score and these are the kinds of spots where we can take advantage of oddsmakers. 
Clippers' starting point guard and star Chris Paul hurt his ankle in Wednesday's game against OKC. He's questionable and if he plays it plays into the Mavs' favor that he could be playing through some pain. 10* Main Event

I am playing on TORONTO. I think the Raptors are going to come out on fire against the Heat in hopes of shaking off what is one of the worst team-vs-team losing streaks in pro sports right now. 
The Raps have embarrassingly lost 16 straight to Miami and that has to be playing on their minds heading into this one. The Raps haven't had their most memorable stretch overall lately and aftetr a 117-107 loss over San Antonio Tuesday night, team leader Kyle Lowry cussed his team's effort to reporters saying Toronto needs a "kick in the ass". 
I expect the Raps to throw everything they have at the Heat and I like the fact that their offense is picking up, despite the fact it hasn't translated into wins yet. Toronto has averaged 106.2 points in its last five games after sagging to just 90.4 points per game in the five games before that. 
In fairness, just two of Toronto's last 10 games have come on the road and I think home court will do the Raps some good. The Raptors seem to play better defense on home court where they allow about three fewer points than on the road. The Heat are also just 2-7-1 against the spread this season  on the road against teams with a .600 or betting winning percentage. 
Gimme Toronto to end the losing streak in front of a nationally televised audience north of the border. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Oklahoma State Cowboys as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

Oklahoma State runs into a familiar foe in its opening game of the Big 12 tournament, facing the Oklahoma Sooners at the Sprint Center in Kansas City. The Cowboys sputtered down the stretch, picking up just one win in their last six conference contests. But when Bedlam is involved, recent records can get tossed out the window. We see great value with the Pokes in this heated matchup.

Oklahoma State dropped both meetings with Oklahoma this season but present a challenge to the Sooners. Beating a team three times in one season is a tough task for even the best teams. Oklahoma closed the schedule with a big win over Kansas but has been soft defensively to end the season. The Sooners allowed 73 points to Kansas and 77 in a loss to Iowa State in their final two games. They also barely escaped with a 79-75 overtime win at TCU on February 21.

The Cowboys offense is hoping to find its form after watching its production drop the few past weeks. Oklahoma State did get some encouraging results in its 82-70 win over Texas Christian and scored 72 points in a loss to West Virginia to end the year. Standout guard Phil Forte II is finally starting to feel healthy again after battling the flu for most of February and is anxious to get another shot at the Sooners, who the Pokes have gone 3-0 SU against in the Big 12 tournament.

The Sooners softening on defense and the Cowboys out for revenge on the big stage are why I’m playing on Oklahoma State as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

I am playing on MINNESOTA.  There is no way around this one – Rutgers is just plain horrible and I think the Scarlett Knights will be happy to be put out of their misery on Wednesday. 
The Knights will already be deer in headlights in their first Big Ten tournament, much like they were for most of the season.  They lost 10 conference games by double digits this season and went 0-9 on the road so it shouldn’t matter much that oddsmakers are handing them a bunch of points. 
Rutgers ranks last in the Big Ten in scoring offense (59 points) and in 3-pointers per game (4.7) and ranks second last in turnovers. The Gophers learned how generous the Knights can be in the last meeting when they coughed up the ball 19 times in a game Minnesota won 89-80. 
The Knights enter this matchup on a 14-game losing streak and they’ve failed to cover in seven of their last eight games. They’re shooting worse than 40 percent over their last five games from field goal range and that’s just not going to be good enough to cover the spread in this one. 
I believe it helps a bit that Minnesota comes in into this one off a pair of losses. I think that means the Gophers will be a little hungrier to beat up on this Rutgers squad.  10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on BROOKLYN. There are two main factors I like here in taking the Nets and those are that the Nets catch the Pelicans in a back-to-back spot and Tyreke Evans is expected to miss tonight's game for New Orleans. 
The Pelicans beat up on Milwaukee 114-103 last night and then had to get on a plane and head for New York. The Nets should be the fresher team on Tuesday, especially considering Anthony Davis played over 40 minutes last night in racking up a career high 43 points. 
I think Brooklyn will have a bit of an easier time containing Davis tonight on tired legs but also because Evans likely won't be on the floor. The New Orleans guard scores 16.8 points and dishes 6.5 assists per game and I believe he's one of the most underrated back court players in the league. With him out of the lineup, I don't think things will be so easy for Davis as the Nets zero in on him and I don't believe oddsmakers have adjusted enough. 
Brooklyn currently sits 2 1/2 games outside of playoff contention in the East and these are the games they absolutely have to win if they hope to make the postseason. The Pelicans are a mid-level squad and the Nets have the benefit of home court. 
New Orleans is just 1-5-1 in its last five games at Brooklyn and I think the Pelicans will run into some more trouble tonight. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on PORTLAND. I think the Pilots are being slightly underestimated by oddsmakers here in the WCC tournament contest in Las Vegas.  Portland is smaller than just about everybody and it faces a BYU squad that comes in on a seven-game winning streak. But BYU also enters on a one-game against-the-spread losing streak and I think that’s because the Cougars are overvalued heading into this tournament.  BYU comes into Las Vegas a little overconfident after a win over Gonzaga just before the tourney and the Cougs needed some late heroics to pull past inferior Santa Clara in the tournament opener. The Pilots, meanwhile, are coming off possibly their best game of the season.  Portland played some fantastic team basketball and held a very good St. Mary’s squad to just 30.2 percent shooting in a 69-52 thrashing in their tournament opener. The Pilots held the Gaels to just 2-of-16 shooting from 3-point land and four Pilots finished in double figures as they shared the ball around the court for great looks at the hoop.  I think we may be looking at a dangerous Portland team that could storm its way to the finals of this event if it keeps playing like it did Saturday. I especially like the Pilots Monday night when they are getting this many points on a neutral court.  10* Main Event

I am playing on MEMPHIS. In this battle of division leaders I’m going to take the team that’s better on defense and in my opinion is playing on fresher legs.  The Grizzlies own the best scoring defense in the league with just 95.6 points against per game and I love taking a strong defensive team against a team playing on jello legs. That’s how I expect the Bulls to come into this game in what will be their fourth game in five nights in one of their worst stretches of schedule of the season.  It’s not just the number of games in that short stretch, it’s the quality of opponents. Chicago will have faced the Wizards and Pacers on back to back nights followed by the Spurs and Grizzlies on back to back nights by the time it’s over with just one day of rest in between. And the Bulls aren’t exactly the greatest on short rest. They are just 7-10 against the spread this season on zero rest, their worst spot in terms of days rest this campaign.  While the Grizzlies are also playing their sixth game in eight days, I also like the fact the away team has won and covered the spread in the last four meetings between these squads. And I feel the Grizz have more depth and can handle tough stretches of schedule a little bit better.  The addition Jeff Green, who was acquired in a three-team trade in January, is a big reason why. They are 18-7 since he switched squads and 15-6 when he starts.  Green gives the Grizzlies a little more depth down low and in transition and I think it will give the Bulls a look they haven’t seen before or will be able to handle on Monday in this tough spot.  10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on DETROIT. If the Pistons have any hope of making the playoffs ,Charlotte is a team they can’t afford to lose to and I think they’ll come up with a big effort here at home on Sunday.  The Pistons trail the eighth and final playoffs spot by just four games and they trail the Hornets by 4.5 games. There are six teams fighting for the last couple of spots right now and beating those teams on home court should bring out some desperation in this Detroit squad that has had a roller coaster ride of a season.  I think oddsmakers are underestimating the Pistons here in setting a tiny spread. I feel they’ve been adjusting with a new look in the back court with the addition of Reggie Jackson back there and their transition woes showed up on their recent three-game road trip. The Pistons lost three in a row – albeit they covered in two of those despite getting only a small handful of points – and the thing I like is that it was cold shooting that cost them.  Detroit is still getting great looks at the hoop and plenty of solid chances to score and I think the cold shooting will turn around as soon as the team is back at home on Sunday.  Jackson is averaging 15.8 points and 7.0 assists and is helping to open up the floor through his first six games with his new club. The problem is that he’s shooting just 36.7 percent.  I believe we’ll see things heat up Sunday afternoon. The Pistons hammered Charlotte by 28 points last month in the only meeting of the season and I think the Hornets will struggle again here in a game where I feel oddsmakers are giving us a soft line.  10* NBA Personal Favorite