Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Over* The first game between these two teams finished 91-78. This game probably won't finish that high, but I like it to go over the total. 

Rice puts up a lot of shots from long range. The Owls rank 91st in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage offense. The UTSA defense ranks 315th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. What about the closest shots? According to Haslametrics, Rice is 96th in near proximity FG percentage and UTSA is 248th in defense of those shots near the hoop. 

UTSA pushes the pace. The Roadrunners are 102nd in the nation in tempo. They are one of the worst defenses in the country and Rice shouldn't have much trouble scoring against them. UTSA has been good especially in recent weeks with forcing turnovers and turning them into quick points in transition. Rice has struggled with turnovers and their transition defense is very weak.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under*  The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off in St. Louis on Thursday night. It's time for Arch Madness. This is always one of the most interesting conference tournaments and this is played at Enterprise Center, which has been a fantastic under venue. In fact, in the postseason games played at Enterprise Center- the under is 66-37 in the last 103 contests. 

Bradley ranks #1 in the MVC in defensive efficiency. Loyola Chicago ranks #2. There won't be many easy shots in this one. 

Bradley started the season out playing quick, but their tempo slowed in the important games in the MVC. This is a win or go home game and I would expect both teams to slow down and work really hard on defense.

With the history of this tournament and the top two defenses- I have to bet the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UC San Diego Tritons put up a bunch of 3 point jumpers. UC San Diego is shooting a solid 35% from 3 point range on the season. They also shoot 73.5% from the free throw line. Cal State Bakersfield ranks dead last in the country in free throws attempted. UC San Diego should get to the stripe a lot here.

CSU Bakersfield is aggressive going to the rim on offense. They should have success getting to the rim against a weak UC San Diego defense in the interior. UC San Diego has blocked the 6th fewest shots of any team in the country this season.

This is a late season game between two teams who have little to play for and those have been good for over bettors in the last 15 years. In fact, games between two teams with a 55% win percentage or lower in the month of March with a total of 150 or lower are 531-423 since 2006. That is an impressive 55.7% win rate for the over in a large sample size.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off in St. Louis on Thursday night. It's time for Arch Madness. This is always one of the most interesting conference tournaments and this is played at Enterprise Center, which has been a fantastic under venue. In fact, in the postseason games played at Enterprise Center- the under is 66-37 in the last 103 contests. 

Evansville ranks 357th out of 358 in the country in tempo. The Purple Aces are also 341st in offensive efficiency. Valparaiso is a relatively slow paced team as well. 

Both teams are good on the defensive boards. It will usually be just one shot for the offenses in this game. 

The tough shooting backdrop at this hockey arena and two slow paced weak offenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Portland State Vikings are a unique team. They like to push the pace and use a full court press to try to create steals and quick scores. The Vikings should have success with that against this Idaho team. Portland State is 21st in quick breakaway points off a steal according to Haslametrics. Idaho is 344th in allowing those steals and scores. 

On the other side, Idaho is a 3 point reliant team. The Portland State Vikings rank dead last (358th) in the country in catch and shoot 3 point defense according to Shot Quality. Idaho ranks 26th in catch and shoot 3 offense. The Vandals also get to the line a lot and shoot 75.8% from the line. Portland State fouls more than anyone else in the Big Sky thanks to their aggressive defense.

These two teams are 343rd and 357th in second chance conversion percentage defense. That means they allow a bunch of second chance points.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off in St. Louis on Thursday night. It's time for Arch Madness. This is always one of the most interesting conference tournaments and this is played at Enterprise Center, which has been a fantastic under venue. In fact, in the postseason games played at Enterprise Center- the under is 66-37 in the last 103 contests. 

These two teams played two times in the regular season. Here are the details of the two matchups

1. Indiana State win 60-57 (Shot Quality says the score should have been 70-66) 

2. Illinois State wins 86-66 (Shot Quality believes the score should have been 54-49)

The tough shooting backdrop and a very high posted total here for a MVC game that is win or go home.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Baptist Huskies have been picking their pace up at the end of the season. They were ultra fast in the past couple seasons, but were playing slower earlier this year. Now, Houston Baptist is back to running once again. The Huskies have had 7 straight games finish with at least 145 points scored. In three of those seven games, there have been at least 173 points.

New Orleans gets to the line at the highest clip of any team in the country. They are up against Houston Baptist team that is aggressive and fouls at a very high rate. New Orleans actually shot the ball really poorly from the floor against Houston Baptist in the first meeting, but they got to the line 41 times. They aren't likely to get that many trips here, but it is likely to be a big number.

New Orleans has seen three straight games finish at 163 points or higher. 

A high scoring contest is likely here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders have slowed their pace down quite a bit in recent weeks. MTSU is using about 18.5 seconds per possession on offense in their last five games. That is a big difference from their non-conference pace earlier in the year of about 16.8 seconds per possession. 

MTSU is a pretty good defensive team. The Blue Raiders are 99th in the country in defensive efficiency. Their biggest weaknesses on defense are on the defensive glass and fouling too much. Charlotte isn't a good offensive rebounding team, and the 49ers aren't very good at getting to the line either.

Charlotte ranks 264th in the nation in tempo. The 49ers are an inconsistent team. They do play slowly though, and the first game between these two teams played to just 60 possessions. 

I look for another slow pace and at this high of a number, I have to back the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The USC Trojans slowed the pace down quite a bit when they took on Arizona the first time around. I think they'll try to do the same again. While they weren't able to win in the first meeting, the much slower pace allowed them to stay in touch throughout on the road against a top five opponent.

Arizona ranks 6th in the country in tempo, but the Wildcats are 4th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. This is an excellent Wildcats defense. They have all kinds of length on the inside and they are shot blocking machines. Koloko is a game changer on the defensive end. USC tries to get the ball inside and they attempt a lot of shots in the paint and in the mid range area. Those shots are unlikely to be open against Arizona. 

Arizona is 131st in the nation in 3 point percentage on offense. USC does have trouble defending the 3 at times, but Arizona's 3 point shooting has been one of their biggest weaknesses as a team this year. 

These teams rank first and second in the nation in 2 point field goal percentage defense. Both of these offenses take a lot more 2's than 3's and they should find it tough sledding in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs have played nine straight games that have finished with 131 total points or less. That includes a 65-60 win over New Mexico on the road. It also includes a 68-63 overtime loss to Boise State. Fresno State has played 27 games this year. Only four of them have gone over this posted total. The Bulldogs are a double digit favorite here and I think they'll get to play at their pace. Fresno State ranks 356th out of 358 in the country in tempo.

New Mexico has gradually slowed their pace of play during the season. The Lobos were really pushing pace early in the season, but lately they have been playing at only a slightly above average tempo. They played more to the pace of Fresno State in the first matchup. New Mexico has relied on getting to the free throw line a lot, but Fresno State ranks in the top 25% in the country in least fouls committed.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns are without Chris Paul and Cam Payne right now. Aaron Holiday is questionable for this game. It might be Elfrid Payton and Landry Shamet seeing a lot of time in the backcourt here. 

Utah ranks second slowest in tempo in the last five games and fourth slowest in the league in tempo in their last ten games. The Jazz also rank top five in the league in defensive efficiency in both of those periods. 

Phoenix isn't as elite on offense without Paul on the floor. It puts more pressure on Booker and Ayton.

Early Sunday games have been strong under angles in the long run. Also, from game 60 of the season on a game between two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher is 56.7% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Houston Baptist Huskies played much slower earlier this year. In recent games they have decided to push the pace once again. Houston Baptist has seen their last 6 games all reach at least 145 points total. In fact, three of those six have reached at least 173 points. They are back to playing very high scoring contests.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi actually ranks 2nd in the Southland in tempo. The Islanders are playing very quickly. Their offense isn't always good, but they are up against a Houston Baptist defense that is very weak here.

Both of these teams come up with a lot of steals and quick points in transition. Both teams also do a lot of fouling, so I expect a lot of free points at the charity stripe. 

Texas A&M Corpus Christi has played 8 of their last 9 games over this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two teams finished 58-56. These are two teams who are better on defense than offense. They also both prefer playing at a slow pace.

Sam Houston State is the slowest paced team in the WAC. The Bearkats have allowed 63 points or less in regulation in five of their last six games. 

Grand Canyon ranks 4th in the nation in 3 point defense. That's important since Sam Houston State likes to put up a lot of shots from long range. 

Both teams have a relatively high turnover percentage so I expect a decent amount of wasted possessions. There won't be too many possessions in the game in general either. The first game was played to a pace of just 61 possessions.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green are amazing at controlling the pace of the game. North Texas is the best team in Conference USA. Their defense is top notch. North Texas is playing at the 358th pace out of 358 teams in the country. There is no one slowing the pace down more than the Mean Green.

In 10 of North Texas' last 11 games the final combined total of points has been 125 points or lower. That includes their first meeting with LA Tech which finished 63-62 and was played to a very slow pace of only 58 possessions. Shot Quality believes that game should have finished at only 121 points.

LA Tech takes a lot of shots from long range, but North Texas ranks 8th in the nation in 3 point defense. The Bulldogs should find it tough going against this Mean Green defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Drake Bulldogs are an above average offensive team. They have had multiple games in the last few weeks where their offense has been humming. Drake's Shanquan Hemphill missed the first game between these two teams, and he is a big loss.

Southern Illinois was great defensively early in the year, but their defensive numbers have tailed off in recent weeks. The Salukis offense has been excellent in recent games behind Marcus Domask, who has been red hot from the floor.

Neither of these teams turn the ball over much at all. This is a late season game (final regular season game) between two teams who have little to play for. These games have been strong over angles in the past 15 years.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charleston Cougars are first in the country in tempo. They will push the pace and they are going to get a lot of second chances on offense. Charleston really crashes the boards well. Charleston got 13 offensive rebounds in the first meeting between these teams.

Drexel has some great 3 point shooters. The Dragons are willing to put it up often from long range, and Charleston has struggled to defend beyond the arc. Drexel made 10/23 from 3 point range in the first meeting between these two teams. 

Drexel has been very good offensively on their home floor. They put up 75 in a loss to Charleston on the road, but I think they'll put up a bigger number here.

There is a chance of overtime or a late foul fest based on the point spread here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers rank second last (357th out of 358) in the country in offensive efficiency. This is an offense that is taking 20 seconds per possession on average so they are very slow, and they are terrible when they shoot it as well. 

In 16 league games, Eastern Illinois has seen their games finish at 119 total points or less in 8 of 16 games. That's just an unheard of amount of extremely low scoring games. Now, they go up against an excellent defense led by shot blocker Johni Broome. Eastern Illinois only scored 50 in the first matchup between these two. They'll likely be around that number again here.

Morehead State plays at a slow pace as well. The Eagles are also coming off an embarrassing defensive performance where SE Missouri State hit 15 three pointers against them. I think their defense will be much more focused here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Bryant Bulldogs are arguably the best team in the NEC when healthy. Bryant is excellent at pushing the pace and dictating the tempo. 

Bryant beat St. Francis earlier this year 85-68 in a game that was played to a very quick pace of 75 possessions. 

St. Francis and Bryant are two very good offensive rebounding teams. That showed itself in the first matchup between these two. St. Francis has 20 offensive boards and Bryant had 14 offensive boards. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 15 in the country in second chance conversion percentage allowed on defense. Expect a lot of second chance points in this game.

Bryant is first in the league in FT/FGA so trips to the stripe should come as well. 

Both of these teams rank in the top 55 in the country in "Free throw defense" which simply means their defense is due for some more regression. Both of these teams are above average from the line.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Merrimack is a very limited team on offense. They have played their last three games against Sacred Heart, Fairleigh Dickinson, and Sacred Heart again. Those are easily the two worst defenses in the NEC. Now, they go to take on an LIU defense that ranks third in the NEC in defensive efficiency. Merrimack ranks 332nd in the nation in offensive efficiency. This is a team that has been shooting the ball really well from 3 point range, but LIU has been top 100 in 3 point defense both last year and this year.

Merrimack was an epic 17/26 from 3 point range in the first meeting between these two. That isn't going to happen again. 

LIU plays very fast, but the Sharks aren't good on offense. In fact, they rank just 253rd in offensive efficiency. LIU will go up against a tricky Merrimack zone defense here that often forces their opponent to slow down their tempo quite a bit. 

Recent high scoring games from Merrimack have given us value on the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins have been one of the best under teams in the nation this year. This is a low total, but Jacksonville has been routinely playing games under this low number. In fact, 8 of their last 13 games have stayed under this number in regulation.

The first meeting between these two teams finished 54-51. A total of 105 is pretty extreme, but based on the quality of shots taken in that game, it should have finished at only 112 points even with normalized shooting numbers. 

North Florida puts up a bunch of 3 point jumpers. Jacksonville is easily the best 3 point defense in the Atlantic Sun. Jacksonville is allowing opponents to shoot only 29.7% from 3 point range on the year. 

Jacksonville ranks 354th out of 358 teams in the country in tempo. The Dolphins rank 54th in effective field goal percentage defense.

North Florida is 2nd in the Atlantic Sun in defensive efficiency. They have protected the paint well, and Jacksonville relies on getting into the paint.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State Aggies have shot only 29.2% from 3 point range in the Mountain West Conference. Brock Miller's injury has really slowed down this offense from the outside. Utah State is an above average offense, but they aren't elite. 

New Mexico has been slowing their pace down of late. Richard Pitino's Minnesota teams did this often late in the season as well. They would turn their tempo down late in the regular season. The Lobos have struggled with offensive efficiency on the road as well.

The first game between these two was 76-76 before OT. Shot Quality suggests that game saw higher than expected shooting numbers. Both teams have played a bit slower later in the season and I think this total is a little too high considering their recent trends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first game between San Diego State and Boise State went to Boise State by a final score of 42-37. That wasn't the halftime score. It was the score at the end of the contest. 

San Diego State ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Aztecs are as good as you'll find on defense. Their athleticism and ability to play defense as a team guide them toward their great numbers.

Boise State ranks 11th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Broncos are also playing much slower than they did a year ago. They are averaging six possessions less per game in MWC action compared to a year ago. 

San Diego State's halfcourt offense is a major problem. The Aztecs try to get out in transition off steals because they are so bad in the halfcourt, but Boise State is easily the best transition defense in the MWC. 

Two good teams playing each other late in the season has been good for under bettors. This has been the case even more strongly in games with low totals.

The oddsmakers have set this total low, but it still isn't low enough.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* There are a couple things about this matchup that make me like a lower totals number to go over. 

First, there are 14 teams in Conference USA, and these two teams rank 13th and 14th in fouls committed. They are aggressive on defense, and it leads to their opponent getting to the line a lot. What free throw percentage are these two offenses shooting? UTEP is shooting 79% from the FT line in conference. MTSU is shooting 77.3% from the FT line in conference. Excellent. 

Second, both of these teams are forcing steals and getting out in transition and trying to score quick baskets with those aggressive defenses. According to Haslametrics, UTEP ranks 48th in potential quick points off breakaway steals and MTSU is 49th. 

MTSU is elite at second chance conversion chances as well, and UTEP ranks dead last in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Hartford Hawks lost to the Stony Brook Seawolves 88-82 on Saturday. They get a chance to try to exact revenge just one day later on Sunday in this back to back game. Saturday's game finished 88-82. 

Both of these teams have been horrible on the defensive end, especially in recent weeks. On the season, Hartford ranks 333rd out of 358 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. Stony Brook ranks 336th. 

In conference play, these two teams are 2nd and 3rd in offensive efficiency in the league. On defense, they are 7th and 10th (last). 

These two teams both do a great job taking care of the basketball. There shouldn't be many wasted possessions in this game. Both teams shoot the ball very well from 3 point range.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Long Beach State 49ers have been tremendous defensively inside the Big West. Long Beach ranks first in the Big West in defensive efficiency, and it isn't very close. Long Beach State is giving up only 0.893 points per possession in Big West play. No one else is allowing less than 0.93 points per possession. 

UCSB is always one of the slowest paced teams in the league. The Gauchos aren't going to be forced into a fast paced game with Long Beach State. Earlier this year, UCSB slowed things down, but lost 65-58 at Long Beach.

Both of these teams turn the ball over at a pretty high rate, but they are both above average in transition defense. That should mean some wasted possessions that help the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star CBB Saturday BEST Bet* The CS Fullerton Titans are known as a really aggressive team that attacks the hoop and looks to get to the charity stripe. If you are looking to get to the basket and get free throws, CS Northridge is a good team to square off against. Northridge fouls at a very high rate. CS Fullerton got to the line 29 times in the first meeting between these teams. Fullerton shoots a tremendous 77% from the free throw line.

Northridge went 1/12 from 3 point range in the first game. While this isn't a good offensive team, they have been better at home. They are on their home floor here and their shooting numbers should improve some here.

Northridge was stalling early in the season, but their pace has gradually gone up in recent weeks. The Titans also have shown they are willing to foul a bunch late in the game if they are down. That is likely to be the case here.

This number is too low given the pace of this game and trips to the line that should occur. 

*3 Star Play Over* The McNeese State Cowboys and New Orleans Privateers both really push the pace. Both of them are also elite at getting to the free throw line. Both defenses have fouled quite a bit as well. Additionally, the second chance opportunities here should be massive. These are two of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the nation.

Last time these two met it was 84-78 and the game was played to a ridiculously fast pace of 79 possessions. I don't see any reason to expect much change there. These two teams want to run, and both defenses have some major weaknesses.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Alabama Lions rank 128th in tempo in the country. They always look to play quickly, but their offense isn't very good. Fortunately for them, they are up against one of the very worst defenses in the country in Lipscomb. Lipscomb ranks 341st out of 358 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

Lipscomb has played 13 games in the Atlantic Sun conference slate so far this year. 12 of those 13 games have gone over this total. Lipscomb gets to the line a lot and knocks down 72% of free throws. North Alabama has committed the most fouls in the conference. Lipscomb should live at the line here.

Both 3 point defenses are bad, and there should be plenty of open looks in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers have a long history of playing an extremely slow pace and trying to keep games very low scoring. They played a bit faster earlier in the season, but they have slowed the pace down again later in the year. In fact, they have played eight straight games that finished with a total number of points of 126 points or less. 

The first meeting between these two was 131 points and Shot Quality says based on the quality of shots taken it should have been 126 points.

Jalen Benjamin is Mt. St. Mary's best offensive player and he is questionable for this game with an injury. He missed last game and is banged up right now. He is the star here. Malik Jefferson is questionable with an injury as well. Without these two, this is an offense that will struggle against nearly everyone.

LIU plays very quickly, but they aren't efficient on offense, and they do play solid defense.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Bryant Bulldogs rank 12th in the nation in tempo. Bryant has been banged up for much of the year, but they are healthy now and are really peaking on offense. Bryant has scored 88 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games.

Central Connecticut struggles badly to get defensive rebounds. Bryant is 19th in the country in second chance conversion points according to Haslametrics. Bryant will get a bunch of second chances here. Peter Kiss should have a huge game.

Bryant's defense is due for some regression. The Bulldogs have strong "free throw defense", and they are struggling to force turnovers.

The first game between these two was 156 points and a fast paced contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Austin Peay has completely changed the way they play during the season. The Governors have hit the brakes in the past few weeks. They are slowing the tempo down to a crawl.

Austin Peay ranks with the slowest pace of any team in the Ohio Valley Conference. Austin Peay has seen 10 of their last 12 games stay under this total, including one game that went into double overtime. Austin Peay takes far too many bad shots in the mid range area on the offensive end.

Murray State is 7th in the OVC in tempo. The Racers are much better on defense this year than they were last season. Murray State won 65-53 at Austin Peay. There were just 61 possessions in that contest.

Another slow paced game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Charleston is 1st in the nation in tempo. Pat Kelsey’s team is pushing the pace in a big way. 

James Madison is 34th in average possession length, so they are moving very quickly too. James Madison is also last in the CAA in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 1.121 points per possession. 

Both of these teams get out in transition a lot, especially after steals. Both of these teams have struggled to get back after turnovers. Plenty of chances for easy points early in the shot clock.

The first meeting between these two was 95-94. Shot Quality says the score should have been 93-84 (177) which is far above this posted total. 

We’ll get plenty of pace here- it will take ugly shooting to keep this one below the number.

Take the over here.

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two teams was played to a very slow pace of only 61 possessions. Appalachian State is playing at the slowest pace of any team in the Sun Belt. The Mountaineers have consistently kept their games very low scoring. They have an excellent 3 point defense and they don't foul very often.

Troy's defense has been excellent this year. The Trojans are allowing opponents to shoot only 31.8% from 3 point range in the conference. That's important since Appalachian State puts up a bunch of long range jumpers.

Neither of these teams have been any good in transition this year. These offenses both rank in the bottom 75 in the country in shot making according to Shot Quality.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgetown Hoyas are terrible on the defensive end. Georgetown is allowing opponents in the Big East to average 1.15 points per possession. Marquette put up 92 points on Georgetown on the road earlier this year.

Marquette is still playing extremely fast. The Golden Eagles are using only 15.2 seconds of the 30 second shot clock in an average possession. The Golden Eagles like to attack the basket. That is a recipe for success against a Georgetown team that lacks high end shot blockers. 

Georgetown has shown a little bit more on offense in recent games. They have reached 74 points or more in three of their last five contests. 

The path to success for the offenses here includes a lot of second chance points and these two are bad on the defensive glass.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Bulldogs and LSU Tigers meet on Wednesday night. LSU has continued to play very quickly. While their defense is still playing very well, it has been regressing toward the mean.

LSU has had amazing "Free throw defense" all year, and that will start to level off. Georgia has excelled at getting to the line and they are shooting 78% in the SEC (best in the conference). 

The Georgia defense is an absolute disaster though. The Bulldogs rank last in the SEC in defensive efficiency. Tom Crean's teams always want to push the pace and are weak on defense.

A quick pace here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Carolina Catamounts offense has been awful in recent weeks. Western Carolina has only topped 70 points in one game in their last 12 contests. Even more recently, Western Carolina has averaged 51 points per game in their last three contests. 

Western Carolina is without guard Vonterious Woolbright and he was their best passer. Without him, their 3 point shots have been worse looks. Western Carolina is shooting a miserable 28% from 3 point range in SoCon play. That doesn't stop them from taking a bunch of long range jumpers though. Furman is second in the SoCon in 3 point FG percentage defense.

Furman ranks 1st in the SoCon in defensive efficiency. The Paladins have held 4 of their last 8 opponents to 58 points or less. They held Western Carolina to 50 in their first meeting.

Western Carolina has seen 8 of their last 9 games stay under this total. Furman has seen 7 of their last 9 games stay under this number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two finished 47-45. I'm certainly not predicting a game that is that low again. 

Navy has been elite on defense lately. They have allowed 49 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games.

Navy is 335th out of 358 in average possession length. Stalling. American is even slower at 345th out of 358. Very slow pace to this game.

Navy is the better team and they have shown they are willing to let off the gas in a big way if they have the lead late. Neither team fouls very much.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys offense ranks first in the Mountain West in efficiency. Graham Ike is doing some serious work in the low post. New Mexico doesn't have anyone who can slow him down. The Lobos have been beaten badly in the paint throughout the season.

Wyoming ranks 6th in FTA/FGA, so they are living at the line. Wyoming is shooting 75.4% from the free throw line in league play. New Mexico ranks dead last in the Mountain West in defending without fouling. They have been putting teams on the line at an insane rate in recent games. 

New Mexico really pushes the pace. The Lobos aren't likely to want Wyoming to set up their defense here. Wyoming has been weak in transition defense, but they are very good in halfcourt defensive sets. 

New Mexico is a 6 point underdog here. That is a perfect fouling spread if they are down by about that margin late. New Mexico has shown they are willing to foul and extend games as much as anyone this year. If Wyoming is ahead late, the points could pile up.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are two of the best defenses in the NBA. In their last ten games, the Celtics are easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Boston is allowing 0.954 points per possession. The second best team in the league is allowing 1.058 points per possession in that ten game span. That kind of a difference between first and second is almost unheard of in the NBA.

The 76ers are 5th in the NBA in the last ten games in defensive efficiency. The 76ers are just as good defensively now as they were before the trade deadline. They did lose a couple key pieces on offense though, and Harden isn't on the floor yet thanks to an injury.

These two teams both rate in the middle of the league in offensive stats in the last ten games. This should be a defensive battle.

Boston ranks as slightly slower than average in tempo, while the 76ers rank 28th out of 30 in the league in tempo.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Phoenix are offensively challenged in a big way. Green Bay has scored 62 points or less in six of their last seven games. Green Bay relies on getting mid range and close looks. They aren't good at all from long range (27.7% on the season). Milwaukee is easily first in the conference in 2 point field goal percentage defense. They have a lot of height inside that should bother Green Bay a lot.

Milwaukee was without Pat Baldwin Jr. on Friday night in their upset win over Wright State. Baldwin Jr has been dealing with nagging injuries that have slowed him down a lot. Milwaukee has been playing at a much slower pace in recent weeks. The Panthers just slowed down Wright State to a pace of just 63 possessions.

Milwaukee has scored 60 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games. 

Both of these teams struggle with turnovers, but the defenses don't turn steals into quick points. There should be plenty of wasted possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions have a way of making the game ugly and low scoring. Penn State has played six of their last ten Big Ten Conference games to a final total of 119 points or less. This team ranks 354th in average possession length in the country. An extremely slow pace of play.

Minnesota is 313th in tempo, so the Golden Gophers aren't going to be pushing the issue either. Minnesota relies heavily on shooting the 3 pointer. 

Penn State has faced the 2nd toughest slate of opposing offenses this year, so their defensive stats are quite impressive with that considered. Minnesota has faced the 9th toughest slate of opposing offenses.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LSU Tigers have played at a very quick pace all year. They had a bunch of low scoring games earlier in the season. The LSU defense is still good, but their defensive numbers have been regressing a bit of late. There is likely more regression to come. For example, LSU has had great "free throw defense" so far this year. LSU's opponents are shooting only 63.7% from the free throw line on the year. That won't continue the rest of the year.

Mississippi State is a great offensive rebounding team, and LSU has been giving up a ton of second chance points of late.

LSU is able to pick up a lot of easy points off their pressure defense and scoring in transition. The Bulldogs aren't good in transition defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* St. Thomas is all about putting up all kinds of 3 point attempts. North Dakota State is a tremendous 3 point defense. They held St. Thomas to just 53 points in the first meeting between these two teams. 

North Dakota State was a bit shaky defensively earlier this year, but the team who has usually been the best defense in the Summit League has been very good defensively of late. The Bison also prefer a slow pace of play.

St. Thomas is bad defensively, but they want to play extremely slowly. There shouldn't be many possessions in this game. 

This is a lot of points for a low possession game between two teams who don't foul much at all.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors have completely changed their style of play. First year head coach Nate James has really slowed this team down. The offense is being extremely deliberate especially late in the season. Austin Peay ranks among the 30 slowest teams in the country in the last month. 

Austin Peay's contests have been extremely low scoring. Their last game was 140 points total against a terrible SE Missouri State defense. Their five previous games were 131 points or lower, and one of those games was a double overtime contest.

Tennessee State has slowed their pace down quite a bit as well. They were 49th in tempo last year and they are 174th this year. 

The first meeting between these two teams was 126 and Shot Quality actually believes based on the quality of shots it should have been 119.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles have slowed their pace down and are trying to win with defense. They lost a heartbreaker 48-47 at Belmont in their last game. Still, they showed they can slow down a really good offense and force the opposition to play their style of basketball. Johni Broome is an elite shot blocker in the paint. 

Murray State won the first meeting between these two and they were able to get a faster paced game. I don't think Morehead State lets it happen here.

The two games last year between these two teams finished at 117 and 122 points. Murray State is actually significantly better on defense this year than they were a year ago.

Look for both teams to struggle to get open shots. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams met just a week ago and there 177 points scored. McNeese State ranks 3rd in the nation in overall tempo. They are going to push the pace at every opportunity. They have been mediocre offensively for the year overall, but they are up against the worst defense in the Southland in Northwestern State. The Demons are a bottom five defense in the country.

Northwestern State and McNeese State are both atrocious when it comes to defensive rebounding. Second chance points should come in bunches in this one. Both teams do a lot of fouling as well. There will be transition points off steals as well. Plenty of chances for easy points.

A fast pace all the way.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* North Texas hasn't played a game that has finished with more than 137 points all year. That says so much about this North Texas team. They play their style of basketball. In fact, in their last 19 games they have only played two games that went over this total. Those games finished at 133 and 134 points. 

North Texas is the better team here and they forced Rice into their extremely slow paced game in the first matchup. I think it is likely they will get their pace of play again here. The Mean Green are elite on defense as well. Rice will find it hard to get clean looks here, and they shouldn't be able to get second chances.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors are a tremendous under team. Their full court zone press is actually designed to slow the game down. Merrimack has played their last three games to 122 points or less in regulation. 

Elijah Ford is a key piece of the Wagner offense and he is out with an injury now. Ford put up 20 points in the Wagner win over Merrimack this season. Wagner is still good offensively, but they are clearly weaker without him on the floor.

Wagner has shown the ability to grab a lead and slow the game down. Merrimack isn't usually able to make a push after being down late. Their outside shooting just isn't good enough. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't normally bet unders in the Big Sky very often. I'm going to make an exception here. The last four meetings between Northern Arizona and Montana have finished with 113 points, 120 points, 123 points, and 106 points. 

Northern Arizona ranks 10th in the Big Sky in tempo. The Lumberjacks toyed with playing quicker earlier this year, but they are back to stalling of late. Montana is 7th in pace and the Grizzlies do prefer to play slowly.

Montana is a good defensive team that has been especially strong on defense at home.

Both teams are good on the defensive glass.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Two bottom 10 defenses in the country. These two teams put up 184 points the first time they played. I’m not saying they’ll score 184 here, but I think over 152.5 is too low.

Houston Baptist slowed their tempo down earlier this year- because their defense is so weak. In their last few games it appears they have said screw it- let’s speed back up. 

NW State is #1 in the Southland in offensive efficiency. Houston Baptist has put up 87 and 93 points in their last two games as well. 

Both these teams have a big edge in transition offense and I think we will see some quick steal and scores. 

Houston Baptist is #8 in the nation in most attempts attacking the rim. NW State 355th out of 358 defending the rim. 

Only two of NW State’s last 11 games have gone under this total.

Take the over here.

*3 Star Play Under* The Grand Canyon Antelopes have been far better at home offensively than they have been on the road. Grand Canyon has had some extremely low scoring battles away from home. Their defense is excellent, but the offense can go through some long scoring droughts.

The Utah Valley Wolverines have drastically slowed their tempo down this year, and it has been hard for the oddsmakers to catch up to that tempo change and their improvement on the defensive end.

We've seen this total bet up to a point where I have to play the under here. This projects as a tight lower scoring game between two teams who like to play slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* It is surprising that UIC has been so bad defensively with Yaklich as their head coach, but the Flames aren't improving defensively. They have two really big weaknesses on defense. First, they are terrible at defending the paint and shots very close to the rim in general. Cleveland State ranks second in the nation in most shots taken near the rim. The Vikings should take advantage of this weakness. Second, UIC is terrible in transition defense. Cleveland State has been in transition on more than 20% of their possessions in league play. They are very good in transition.

UIC is likely going to speed things up especially when they are down in this one. Cleveland State has been giving up quite a few second half points when they are ahead of late.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs and Missouri State Bears met earlier this year and the final was 61-56. That game was played to a slow pace of 64 possessions. Both teams did shoot the ball poorly, but I still believe this is too high of a line. 

Drake's weakness on defense is they foul quite a bit. Missouri State doesn't get to the line much. Drake has been putting up big numbers on offense on weak and faster paced teams in the MVC of late. 

This total is rare in the MVC where defenses usually have the upper hand. In a game with a pace as slow as this one, this total is too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Davidson Wildcats and St. Joe's Hawks meet for the second time this year on Wednesday night. Davidson walloped St. Joe's 90-72 earlier this year. 

Bob McKillop's offense at Davidson this year is elite. They rank 7th in the nation in offensive efficiency. There really is no weakness on this Davidson offense. They can beat you from the outside or on the inside.

St. Joe's puts up a lot of 3's and they are pretty good from long range. Davidson is allowing 37% from 3 point range in league play.

The last four meetings between these two teams have all hit 145 points or more, and this is the best Davidson offense in years.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The USF Bulls offense ranks 357th out of 358 teams in the country in shot selection. They rank dead last at 358th in both spacing and shot making. They are taking the fifth most mid range jumpers in the country, and they aren't any good at them. This USF offense is a complete disaster.

Cincinnati ranks 3rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Bearcats aren't easy for anyone to score on. USF is likely to struggle badly on offense here.

Cincinnati's offense isn't very good either. The USF defense is feisty. The Bulls rank 63rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Cincinnati has scored 61 points or less in three of their last four games. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels always play at a very slow pace. St. Mary's is also excellent on defense this year. In St. Mary's last 22 games, 20 of those games have stayed under this total. Two have gone over and those were only 147 and 142 points. 

Santa Clara is a faster paced team with quite a few higher scoring contests. The first game between these two finished at 138 points.

The website Shot Quality which grades games on the quality of shots taken by each team believed the score in the first game should have finished 62-57. 

St. Mary's and Santa Clara are both great at defending without fouling. They are also both very good on the defensive glass. There shouldn't be many second chance points or trips to the stripe here and that is crucial for an under.

You'll rarely see totals this high for a St. Mary's game.

I'm on the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets will likely be without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden. It isn't just the big three missing, but also Joe Harris and LaMarcus Aldridge. It will be Patty Mills stepping into big minutes and taking a bunch of shots here. The Nets are without all kinds of top playmakers on offense. They are also up against a Boston defense that is playing well. It would be hard to expect too much from the Nets offensively in this game.

How good is the Boston defense playing? In the past ten games, Boston is allowing 0.985 points per possession. That is first in the NBA. No one else in the NBA is allowing less than 1.065 points per possession. That's some terrific defense by the Celtics.

Boston also ranks 22nd in the league in tempo in their last ten games. Boston has been winning with defense and slowing the game down. The Nets are 19th in tempo during that time span. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Wildcats are a fast paced team, but they are actually better on defense than offense. Arizona ranks 32nd in effective field goal percentage offense. They rank 2nd in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Arizona's length on the interior makes them virtually impossible to get to the basket against. That should make it really tough on Arizona State. Arizona State is shooting a miserable 28% from 3 point range on the year. They rely heavily on getting to the basket and scoring from close. The Wildcats length is a tough matchup.

Arizona's offense has one clear weakness and that is turning the ball over too much. Kerr Kriisa wastes some possessions for the Wildcats with poor decisions with the basketball. Arizona State can force turnovers, and they also have some very good shot blockers on the interior. 

Arizona has seen 6 of their last 8 games stay under this total. Arizona State has been very low scoring all year. In fact, 13 of their last 14 games have finished with 136 points or less. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two teams finished at 131 points. That game featured an epic foul fest in the final few minutes. In fact, there were 56 points scored in the final ten minutes of the game. The fact that the score was 38-37 with just under ten minutes left shows what type of game it was before things went crazy in the final few minutes. 

Fairfield and Siena both prefer to play slowly. The pace here should be slow. Both of these offenses rank in the bottom 70 in the country at getting to the free throw line. 

Fairfield has seen 7 of their last 12 games finish below this total in regulation. Fairfield has slowed their pace down in recent games. They haven't played a game any faster than 64 possessions in their last four contests.

Siena shoots a very high volume of mid range jumpers, but Fairfield has been excellent at defending mid range jumpers this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana State Sycamores take a bunch of shots from long range, and Valparaiso ranks second worst in the Missouri Valley Conference in 3 point percentage defense. 

Indiana State ranks 1st in the MVC in pace. The Sycamores will push the tempo again in this one. The first meeting between these two finished 75-73 with mediocre shooting numbers.

Indiana State lacks height in the frontcourt and they can't protect the rim. Valpo should get in the paint and convert on quite a few easy looks in this contest.

This number is set so low because MVC totals just aren't very high in general. I think it is too low given the matchup.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Bowling Green Falcons have played 11 games in the Mid American Conference. How many of them have gone over 149 points? All of their 11 games have hit 152 points or more. Bowling Green is pushing the tempo in a big way. They are also giving up 1.141 points per possession defensively. The Falcons allow a bunch of open looks from 3 point range. 

The Northern Illinois Huskies have had some high scoring games and some low scoring games. Northern Illinois lost at home 92-83 against Bowling Green earlier this year. Bowling Green set the pace in that game and there were a bunch of made 3's in that one.

Both teams foul a lot, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see a large amount of trips to the charity stripe here.

The line is set at a point where a late foul fest or even an overtime session wouldn't be surprising either.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Albany Great Danes have consistently been a very low scoring team. They are very weak on offense and play slowly. They are above average on defense. They also do a good job keeping the pace slow. Their games have stayed very low this season. In fact, 14 of Albany's last 17 games have finished with 127 points or less total. 

Hartford isn't a good defensive team, but they do play very slowly. Hartford has been up and down on the offensive end. 

I think this has a chance to be a very slow paced game. Neither team is efficient at getting to the line and getting many trips from the charity stripe.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The first time these two met the final score was 65-57. The pace was extremely slow in that one. I had the under the first time these two met, and I'm on the under again here.

Washington State is an elite defense. The Cougars are 22nd in defensive efficiency and 18th in effective field goal percentage defense. They do a great job contesting every shot.

Cal ranks 12th in the Pac 12 in tempo. Washington State ranks 11th. The pace should be extremely slow again in this one.

Cal's offense has no go to guys. Matt Bradley was their one go to guy last year, but he is gone now. 

Look for a pace of about 60 possessions, and I like this to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these teams are excellent from 3 point range. Both of these defenses are dreadful when it comes to defending the 3. Northern Colorado is 354th in the country at defending beyond the arc. Northern Arizona is 315th. Offensively, they are 25th and 74th in 3 point percentage offense.

Northern Colorado hasn't had a game in the Big Sky finish with less than 152 points. Northern Arizona does play slower than some of the teams in the Big Sky, but they are very weak defensively. 

Northern Colorado is 12th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. Northern Arizona is putting teams on the line a lot and Northern Colorado shoots 71.1% from the line.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors are a really good under team. Merrimack uses a zone full court press to slow the game down. Merrimack doesn't give up open shots in the halfcourt. They do have trouble getting defensive rebounds, but St. Francis is only mediocre on the offensive glass.

St. Francis is 10th in the league in offensive efficiency at just 0.931 points per possession. Merrimack is at 0.92 points per possession on the year.

The first game between these two was 62-46. This one will likely be higher than that, but this total is set too high.

Look for a slow paced game with below average shooting numbers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters defense is the best in the Big West. UC Irvine ranks 3rd in the nation in 3 point percentage defense. They also have a very good shot blocker in Austin Johnson.

UC Irvine has been able to control the pace very well in Big West play. They want to play slowly in the halfcourt.

UCSB has slowed their tempo down in the league as well. The Gauchos have had trouble with turnovers this year on offense. They have been strong on defense led by Amadou Sow.

A tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins are terrific at controlling the pace of the game. Jacksonville is 352nd out of 358 teams in the country in average possession length. They are stalling in a big way.

North Alabama is relatively quick, but they are also 343rd out of 358 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. Jacksonville isn't much better coming in at 302nd in offensive efficiency.

Jacksonville is elite on the defensive glass. They rank an impressive 7th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage.

Neither team gets to the line much at all.

Jacksonville has 11 Division One games that have stayed under this total.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Portland State Vikings beat the Northern Colorado Bears a couple nights ago by a score of 79-76. That game was played to 73 possessions so the pace was quick. There were only a total of 34 free throws attempted, and most Portland State games have a bunch of free throw attempts thanks to their very aggressive defensive style of play.

Northern Colorado's offense has sped up their tempo in a big way this year, and they have been very efficient. I think the Bears offense will improve on their 76 point total from last game against Portland State. Northern Colorado hasn't had a single league game in the Big Sky that finished with less than 152 points.

The Big Sky is a great over league in the long run and I think the offenses have the upper hand here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Dixie State is 5th in the nation in average possession length. The Trailblazers are moving at a really quick tempo at all times. They are the fastest paced team in the WAC. 

Dixie State is also a really bad defensive team. They rank 268th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Sam Houston State ranks in the top 60 in the country in breakaway points off a steal. They should be able to create quick transition chances against a Dixie State team that struggles badly with turnovers.

Sam Houston State has put opponents on the line far too often this year. Dixie State does a lot of damage from the line. They rank in the top 30 teams in the country in free throws attempted this year.

Take the over.  

*4 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats have been elite at controlling the tempo this season. Villanova has slowed their pace down even more in recent weeks. Villanova is averaging 20.5 seconds per possession in Big East play. In overall tempo, Villanova is third slowest in the country. 

Villanova got Marquette to play their style earlier this year, but Marquette actually beat them at their style. Marquette's defense is really impressive this year. The Golden Eagles rank 24th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have a lot of length and athleticism.

Marquette is excellent in the halfcourt on defense, and Villanova isn't out and running on offense. On the other side, Villanova gets back well and can neutralize Marquette's transition offense potential.

The first game saw only 61 possessions and stayed well under the total. Barring very good shooting numbers, I think this one stays under too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have drastically slowed down their pace of play this year. Illinois was 79th in overall tempo last year, and they are just 216th so far this year. In Big Ten play, they are using 19.1 seconds on an average possession. 

Illinois has played excellent defense as well. They are first in the Big Ten (a league with plenty of good defenses) in effective field goal percentage defense in Big Ten play. Illinois has held their last two opponents, and 3 of their last 5, to 56 points or less.

Wisconsin is playing quicker than they did in the past, but the Badgers aren't going to turn into Iowa overnight. Wisconsin is still slightly slower than an average team. The Badgers are excellent on the defensive glass, which should help a lot against a big weapon for the Illinois offense (second chance points).

Both of these two teams have played a top 20 slate of opposing offenses, so their defenses are very well tested.

I think this is a tight game that stays lower scoring than expected.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Riverside Highlanders are a really good defensive team. UC Riverside ranks 14th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. 

UC Davis is taking a lot of bad shots in their Big West games. UC Davis has poor spacing and they are taking far too many low quality mid range jumpers this season.

The Aggies defense does foul a lot, but UC Riverside ranked in the bottom 20 in the country in free throw attempts last year, and they are in the bottom 80 again this year. The Highlanders offense is very deliberate as well.

Only one of UC Riverside's last eight games has gone over this total. They are the better team and I like them to keep this one to a low scoring defensive game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns have held their last 3 opponents to 51, 50, and 51 points. Texas is excellent defensively with Chris Beard as their head coach. Beard knows this Texas Tech team and program well, and this is going to be a huge game.

Texas Tech's defense has been elite under Mark Adams this year. I'm impressed with the job Adams has done so far this year. The Red Raiders rank 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Texas is 9th. These are two teams that aren't going to give up open shots very often. 

Texas hasn't been great in transition defense, but they are #1 in the country in half court defense. This game should be played in the halfcourt.

Texas Tech is excellent against cutting action (8th in the country). Texas runs about as much of that style of offense as anyone in the country.

A low scoring tight game. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Big Sky Conference is all about offense. Over the long run (more than a decade), the over is a little above 55% overall in conference games.

Portland State was ice cold shooting the ball for a long time earlier this year, but positive regression has hit. The Vikings have also been playing at a faster tempo again of late. Portland State has had games with 163, 167, and 173 total points in their last three games. 

Northern Colorado ranks second in the Big Sky in average possession length. The Bears are really pushing the pace of late. Northern Colorado has played seven games in the Big Sky. Their lowest scoring game has been 152 points.

A quick pace and two subpar defenses especially in transition.

My numbers were several points higher on this one. I see good value here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky Conference is all about offense. Over the long run (more than a decade), the over is a little above 55% overall in conference games.

Southern Utah's offense started the season a little slower than expected, but the Thunderbirds have been great on offense of late. Southern Utah has had five straight games where the final total in the game has hit at least 160 points. Southern Utah hasn't scored less than 81 points in any of those contests.

Northern Arizona has one of the worst defenses in the Big Sky. The Lumberjacks have allowed 89 and 97 points in two of their last four games. On the other side, Northern Arizona ranks first in the Big Sky in 3 point percentage. Southern Utah has had trouble defending the 3 point line the last couple seasons.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Indiana State is the fastest paced team in the Missouri Valley Conference. First year coach Josh Schertz has brought his uptempo style to Terre Haute and the Sycamores are having some high scoring contests.

Indiana State shoots a bunch of shots from long range. The Sycamores were without Cameron Henry in three games recently, but he is back and he is the star of this offense. Henry missed the first matchup with Bradley, but Indiana State still put up 76 points in a win.

Bradley ranks 4th in tempo in the MVC. The Braves don't mind running either. Bradley attacks the basket very hard, and Indiana State is a really poor defense in the interior. Indiana State has no shot blockers. They will struggle to slow down Mast and Leons for Bradley.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wofford Terriers and UNC Greensboro Spartans have played to 48-45 and 58-54 final scores in their last two meetings with each other. 

UNC Greensboro plays at the slowest pace of any team in the Southern Conference. The Spartans have faced an easy slate of defenses (303rd out of 358 in schedule toughness), but they still have struggled on offense. They have faced the 98th toughest slate of offenses. Their defensive numbers are still impressive.

Wofford ranks in the bottom 50 in the country in terms of tempo as well. They should be happy to play this game in the halfcourt. 

Both of these teams are excellent on the defensive glass, and neither of these teams are committing many fouls either.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Albany Great Danes have stayed under this total in 12 of their last 14 games. Albany just played a 64-62 game that went into overtime.

These two teams met recently and the final was 71-56 Albany. The Great Danes shot the ball much better than average in that game. Albany ranks 333rd in offensive efficiency in the country and they rank 348th in the country in shot selection.

NJIT ranks an ugly 342nd in offensive efficiency and 323rd in the country in shot selection. The Highlanders have scored 57 points or less in four of their last five games.

These two teams are both much slower paced than an average team. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kentucky Wildcats will reportedly get Tyty Washington back for this contest. Washington is crucial to the team's success on offense. He may not play his normal minutes, but him playing any is helpful here. Jacob Toppin is also listed as probable now for Kentucky.

Kansas ranks 58th in the country in average possession length. The Jayhawks have multiple very good scoring options. 

Kentucky has struggled from 3 at times, but they are good when they get the ball inside. Kansas doesn't have the elite shot blockers that they have had in other recent seasons.

Both teams like to get out in transition and the weakness of these two defenses has been their transition defense.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers haven't scored more than 62 points in a game against a Division One opponent all year. Eastern Illinois hasn't scored more than 58 points in any of their last 11 games. This is a dreadful offensive team that plays at the slowest pace of any team in the OVC.

Tennessee State isn't pushing the pace to the degree they were last season. The Tigers have seen three of their last seven games finish with 126 points or less. They have scored 65 points or less in five of their last seven games.

This should be a sloppy game with neither team being efficient on the offensive end. Eastern Illinois ranks 357th in offensive efficiency in the country. Tennessee State is 273rd.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky Conference is known for its offense. There are very few teams who are actually good on the defensive. That's shown by the fact that 55.0% of Big Sky Conference games have gone over the total in the last 15 years. 

Tighten that angle up to totals of 145 or less in the Big Sky and there have been 57.1% of games in the last 15 years that have gone over the total.

Idaho State and Sacramento State are both bad on offense and that is why this total is so low. On the other hand, both of these teams are bad on defense as well.

Idaho State and Sacramento State both rank in the bottom 75 in the country in defending without fouling. There are likely to be a lot of trips to the free throw line in this game. Idaho State is a bottom 35 defense in the entire country by defensive efficiency.

Idaho State only has had two of their nine Big Sky games finish with less than 132 total points. Sacramento State only has two Big Sky games that finished under this total as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cal State Fullerton Titans toyed with playing at a slower tempo in the non-conference portion of their schedule. They have sped back up to a quicker tempo again in Big West play. They rank number one in offensive efficiency in the Big West. They are second in tempo.

UC Davis plays at a slightly above average tempo. The Aggies ranked in the bottom 30 teams in the country in fouls committed per possession last year, and they rank even lower this year. CS Fullerton has been a team that attacks the rim hard for many years. Expect a lot of trips to the line for the Titans. Fullerton shoots 75.2% from the free throw line.

UC Davis excels on catch and shoot 3 pointers, and Fullerton ranks in the bottom 100 teams in the country defending that. The Aggies should get their share of open looks in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Washington Eagles have played eight Big Sky Conference games this year. They have scores 78 points or more in six of those games, and they have scored 75 points or more in all but one of those games. Eastern Washington is the second fastest paced team in the league and their transition offense should be tough for Montana State to slow down here.

Montana State is a great three point shooting team who has been great from long range at home in recent seasons. The Bobcats will get their chances here.

Both teams are top 40 in the country in free throw attempts and both teams are prone to a lot of fouling.

The Big Sky Conference is known for its offense. There are very few teams who are actually good on the defensive. That's shown by the fact that 55.0% of Big Sky Conference games have gone over the total in the last 15 years. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* LSU Tigers coach Will Wade said Xavier Pinson is doubtful for this game. Darius Days is considered a gametime decision. These guys are 2 of the top 3 scorers on the game. Pinson is also great at getting quick steals and getting out in transition. LSU really misses him. Days is a great offensive rebounder and he would be missed as well.

Texas A&M ranks 32nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Buzz Williams' team does a good job making the opponent work for their shot. Texas A&M is second in steals percentage in the country and LSU turns the ball over a lot, especially without Pinson.

LSU ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Tigers turnaround on defense this year has been nothing short of amazing. Their length and athleticism is really bothering opposing offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates have been a mess without Bryce Aiken. Aiken is questionable for this game, but since he wasn't cleared from the concussion protocol on Monday night against St. John's and the team doesn't play until next Tuesday again, one beat writer said he might be leaning toward doubtful to play here.

Seton Hall put up just 66 and 63 points against a mediocre St. John's defense in their last two games without Aiken. Aiken would rank in the top ten in the country in offensive rating per KenPom if he had just a little higher possession usage. Aiken at less than 100 percent slows the team down a lot, and him being out of the lineup hurts them badly.

Marquette won 73-72 when these two played recently and that was with the teams at full strength. Shot Quality says that final score should have been just 67-66. The Golden Eagles are second in the Big East in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Despite the quick pace, both teams are significantly better on defense than offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes stand out in the Mid American Conference as a rare team that is clearly better on the defensive end than the offensive end of the floor.

Kent State is allowing less than 0.95 points per possession in the MAC. The Golden Flashes have held their opponent to 65 points or less in six of their last seven. That's some terrific defense in this conference that usually has a lot of high scoring contests. Kent State just held Akron to 55 points and Buffalo (fast paced team) to just 64 points in the last week. 

Western Michigan ranks 10th in the MAC in overall tempo. Kent State ranks 11th in tempo. These are two teams who want to play in the halfcourt rather than in transition.

Kent State has played six of their last seven games under this total. Western Michigan turns the ball over a lot and very rarely gets to the free throw line.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Washington Eagles rank 44th in the nation in tempo. Eastern Washington ranks 70th in the nation in halfcourt offensive efficiency as well. Idaho State ranks 347th in the nation in defensive halfcourt efficiency.

Eastern Washington is the favorite in this game. They should be able to dictate the tempo against an Idaho State team that has ran with Weber State and Southern Utah in recent games.

Eastern Washington hasn't scored less than 75 points in their last five games. They have scored 83 and 96 against two of the weakest defenses in the Big Sky Conference.

Idaho State has allowed 95 points and 86 points in their last two games.

The Big Sky has been a great over conference. There is very little defense played in this conference. Totals of 145 or lower have gone 57% to the over in the last decade.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics have played at the second slowest tempo in the NBA in the last 10 games. Boston has seen 13 of its last 17 games stay under this total in regulation. They have played some low scoring finals even in overtime. Boston is playing strong defense. They rank 7th in defensive efficiency in the last ten games.

Boston lists Marcus Smart as probable for this game. Smart is a great defender and often when coming back from a long break players can struggle offensively. 

Washington is the higher scoring team of these two, but the Wizards have had several contests with very high scoring and fast paced teams of late. That has skewed this total higher. Here, they are up against a different opponent who prefers the halfcourt and lower scoring game.

Sunday early game unders have been great especially in conference games in the last decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles played Xavier earlier this year and the game was played to a blazing fast pace of 76 possessions. That game finished at 151 points total despite poor shooting from the floor. Shot Quality believes with average shooting from both teams it would have been about 160 points total.

Xavier ranks 35th quickest in average possession length in the country. Marquette is 7th quickest. 

Both of these teams have faced a lot of very tough defenses on their schedule and that has held their offensive numbers down a bit. Both teams are capable of putting up a big number at any time.

These two teams do a good job taking care of the basketball. They also are above average from the line.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cal State Northridge is playing a completely different style of basketball this year with Trent Johnson at the helm instead of Mark Gottfried. Johnson has the team slowing things down in a big way. CS Northridge has been forced into some faster paced games on the road, but when playing at home they have controlled the tempo and stayed very slow paced.

UC Riverside has arguably the best defense in the Big West. UC Riverside also likes to play at an extremely slow tempo. UC Riverside ranks 338th in average possession length, so they are bottom 20 in tempo.

The defenses here have big advantages against the offenses. UC Riverside does a great job getting defensive boards and not fouling. UC Riverside struggles with outside shooting. CS Northridge takes far too many bad midrange jumpers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a really low total, but it is very low for good reason. North Texas is an elite defensive team this year. North Texas also happens to be the second slowest team in terms of tempo in the country (only Virginia is slower). 

North Texas has seen 7 of its last 13 games stay under this extremely low posted total. The Mean Green have been shutting down opposing offenses. Old Dominion relies far too heavily on offensive rebounds and mid range jumpers. North Texas is a good defensive rebounding team and ODU should end up with a lot of poor quality shots here.

North Texas should have a lead and they have shown the ability to completely take the air out of the ball late with a lead.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Betting the over with low totals in the Big Sky Conference has been the way to go. In the last 15 years, betting a total of 145 or lower to go over the total in Big Sky Conference games has yielded a 57% win rate for the over.

Idaho State is a bad team who prefers to play slowly, but they are likely to be down by margin early in this one. They should then be forced to speed up as they were twice by Weber State. Both of their games against Weber State went over the total.

Southern Utah has one of the best offenses in the Big Sky. Southern Utah has been really efficient in the paint, and Idaho State has no shot blockers and the Bengals defense has been hapless this year. 

Southern Utah has scored 81 points or more in 4 of their 5 games in the Big Sky so far this season. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Longwood Lancers take on the Presbyterian Blue Hose in this one. Not only is this a game with two epic team nicknames, I also believe there is some good value on the under in this contest.

Longwood and Presbyterian met twice last year. The final scores were 49-45 and 66-54. The meeting before that in 2020 was 58-55. These two teams have a history of extremely low scoring games against each other. 

Both of these teams have problems with turnovers. There should be a lot of possessions where these teams don't even get a shot. 

Presbyterian has played 17 games against D1 opponents this year. Nine of those games have had 126 points or less in regulation. 

Look for another sloppy game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers rank 279th in the nation in tempo. Minnesota tries to slow the game down as much as possible. They have had to speed up in some recent games because they have been way behind, but that isn't likely to be the case here with them favored by 1.5. 

Rutgers has been playing lockdown defense of late. They held an amazing Iowa offense to 46 points in their last game. They held Maryland to 59 points in the game before that. Rutgers has faced the 64th toughest slate of offenses, and they still have great defensive numbers on the year.

The Rutgers offense really struggles with scoring droughts. Rutgers ranks 251st in effective field goal percentage offense.

Both of these teams are good on the defensive boards, and they both do a good job defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints like to slow the pace of the game down. Siena ranks 291st in average possession length. Manhattan is slightly faster than an average team at 141st in average possession length. 

Siena was best in the MAAC at defending without fouling last year. They were second best two years ago. Why is that important? Manhattan is extremely reliant on getting to the free throw line. 

Manhattan has been without star Ant Nelson for the last 3 games and he is questionable in this one. Nelson has been dealing with a major non covid illness. Nelson has been the team's leading scorer in the last two meetings with Siena.

The first meeting between these two was 64-64 at the end of regulation. The shooting numbers in that game were fairly average, but the pace was slow.

Both teams turn it over a lot, and there should be plenty of wasted possessions here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I like Wes Miller's defense. Miller did a great job at UNC Greensboro for years, and now he is doing a good job with this Cincinnati Bearcats defense. Cincinnati will use a full court zone press quite a bit, but it is actually used to slow the pace down. Cincinnati has solid shot blockers, and it is very difficult to get into the lane against them. They are holding opponents to just 40.6% on 2 point shots (2nd best in the nation). 

Tulsa is a defensive minded team under Frank Haith as well. Tulsa likes to mix up their defenses and run some zone and trapping defenses to throw the opposing offenses off guard. Tulsa doesn't get to the line much at all. They are reliant on too many bad mid range jumpers.

Cincinnati's defense has showed they are capable against good offenses of late. They held Wichita State to 57 points. They also held SMU to just 60 points. 

Look for a defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Summit League has a lot of teams who are very bad on defense. These are two of the good defenses up against each other. North Dakota State has been first in the Summit in defensive efficiency two years and second last year. They should be a top three defense in this league by the end of the year again. UMKC was first in defensive efficiency last year, and they are second so far this season.

UMKC and North Dakota State also prefer to play at a slower pace than most of the teams in this league. We should see a slow paced game between these two once again. 

UMKC ranks 315th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Kangaroos have faced the 301st toughest slate of defenses (very easy) so it hasn't been the strength of the defenses holding them back. They have faced the 120th toughest offenses, and they are still a defense oriented team.

Look for both teams to struggle to find open shots in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers have been an under machine this year. They clearly will have some overs at some point in the season, but I have to get back on the under in this one. If it isn't broke...

Eastern Illinois has seen a whopping 11 of their last 12 Division I contests go under this posted total. This is a team that is consistently finishing with 55 points or less. Against the best teams they have played, they have routinely been in the 40's. They just scored 46 against Murray State earlier this week. A similar number here wouldn't surprise me at all.

Murray State put up 72 points earlier this week against Eastern Illinois. The Racers shot above 50% from the floor in that game. Murray State has shown they are willing to slow the game down with a big lead, which is important since they are massive favorites once again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats absolutely shot the lights out in their last game. They beat Butler 82-42 in a game played to a pace of only 59 possessions. Villanova was 12/19 from 3 point range, and they averaged 1.41 points per possession. Villanova is a very good offense, but that kind of offensive efficiency is almost never seen. 

Marquette ranks in the top 45 in the country in nearly all the major defensive categories. Shaka Smart's team will compete on the defensive end. Marquette excels in halfcourt defense, and Villanova is nearly always in the halfcourt. The Wildcats run a lot of pick and roll ball screen action, and Marquette is really good at defending that.

Villanova is 355th in tempo in the country out of 358 teams. This is a really high total for a game involving a team playing this slow of a pace.

Marquette is playing quickly, but they are about two possessions per game slower in Big East league play than in non-conference games. The Eagles are inconsistent offensively as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs have played 9 of their last 12 games under this posted total. Fresno State is elite defensively. The Bulldogs rank 42nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Orlando Robinson is both a good shot blocker and a good defensive rebounder down low. 

Utah State is 97th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They rank 44th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. The Aggies have had bad "free throw defense" so far this year, but that is just getting unlucky. 

RJ Eytle-Rock is doubtful for this game due to COVID protocols. Brock Miller is expected to miss this game for Utah State due to back problems. These are two of their top four or five offensive options.

Fresno State should keep the pace down, and I think both defenses have the upper hand here.

Take the under.