Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers are extremely good at forcing the game into their preferred pace of play. Wisconsin also has a tremendous defense. I really like how consistent this Wisconsin defense has been. Wisconsin hasn't allowed a single team to score more than 1.024 points per possession in their last ten games. 

Indiana has tended to let the opposition control the tempo of the game. The Hoosiers have seen 5 of their last 8 games stay under this total in regulation. Indiana's games have been much lower scoring at home in the conference due to their better defense on their home floor. 

Wisconsin is 10-4 on the under at this total in their last 14 games. The Badgers will continue to slow the game down and play gritty defense here.

This total has been bet up to the point where there is enough value to play the under. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Iowa Panthers have quietly been much more efficient on offense of late. Northern Iowa has been better than their season average in points per possessions in 7 of their last 8 games. Northern Iowa has scored 71 points or more in four of their last five games. 

Valparaiso's offense is better with Ryan Fazekas and Markus Golder back in the fold after some injury issues. The Crusaders scored 71 and 79 points in two of their last three games in regulation. Their offensive upside is much higher than it was when Fazekas missed a long stretch during the middle of the season.

This is a game between two teams who are mediocre or worse on the season in conference and it is very late in the regular season for these teams. That has been a very good long term system for taking overs in the past. The MVC is a conference where low overs in these spots have been very good.

This total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves host the Little Rock Trojans on Saturday. The first meeting between these two was an epic 84-83 contest played at a pace of 77 possessions. 

Little Rock ranks 53rd in the nation in tempo. Arkansas State ranks 96th in the nation in tempo.Both of these teams like to play quickly, and both of them excel at getting to the free throw line. Little Rock ranks 8th in FTA/FGA in the country. Arkansas State ranks 32nd in that statistic. These teams are number one and two in Sun Belt play in free throws attempted. Both teams rank in the bottom 45 in the country in defending without fouling, so we should expect plenty of free throws here.

Little Rock shoots the ball very well from the floor. Their issue has been turnovers on offense, but Arkansas State doesn't force many turnovers. Arkansas State has been more efficient on offense at home this season and their defense is one of the weakest in the Sun Belt.

This should be a close game and overtime is certainly a possibility. With a bunch of free throws and a lot of possessions, I'll back the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have changed up their game in a big way. Missouri State is stalling the game out and trying to force it into a low scoring game. They've been able to do precisely that. 

Missouri State has played 9 straight games that have finished at 131 total points or less. Eight of the nine games have finished at 126 points or fewer. The Bears are better than Indiana State and I think they can dictate the tempo here.

Indiana State is dead last in the MVC in 3 point shooting percentage, and that is Missouri State's only real weakness is guarding beyond the arc. 

Neither team gets many second chance opportunities, and both teams are solid defensive rebounding teams.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Orlando Magic and Chicago Bulls both trended toward much higher scoring games right before the break. Both teams sped up their pace and were much more efficient.

In the past six games, Orlando and Chicago rank second and third in the NBA in points per possession at 1.18 per possession each. Both rank in the top 20 in tempo as well after being bottom of the league tempo teams for much of the season. 

Orlando has scored 117 points or more in six of their last eight games. They have allowed 122 points or more in four of those eight contests. The Bulls have scored 118 points or more in five of their last six contests. 

Both teams have talked about speeding up play in the second half.

Eric Lewis is one of the refs calling this game, and he is one of the best over refs in the NBA. Marat Kogut also has been a pretty good over referee and he's calling this game as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The VMI Keydets are absolutely awful on defense. VMI has been bad on defense all year, but they have been at their absolute worst of late. VMI has allowed 3 of their last 5 opponents to average 1.25 points per possession or higher.

How high scoring have VMI's games been? VMI has seen 9 of their last 10 games go over this posted total. 

East Tennessee State beat VMI 85-82 in the first meeting between these two teams. E Tennessee State is a pretty good shooting team, and they are great on the offensive glass. They should get quite a few second chance points here. Their last four games have all gone over this posted total.

Neither of these teams have a chance in the SoCon, so they are just playing out the string until conference tournament comes around. That helps the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Over* The South Dakota Coyotes were averaging less than 67 possessions per game in the non-conference slate. They are averaging 69.1 possessions in Summit League play.

South Dakota has allowed 1.29 points per possession or more in three of their last four games. They are also averaging 1.15 points per possession on offense in their last three games. 

Denver has one of the worst defenses in college basketball. How bad are they? They have allowed 1.164 points per possession or higher in each of their last four games. At the same time, they have scored 1.142 points per possession or more in 5 of their last 7 games.

The Summit League is well known for high scoring games with little defense. How about this angle? From game 10 of the regular season on with a total of 153 or lower, the over is a whopping 85-36 in the Summit League (70.2%). This is a low total for a Summit League contest. Both teams have played a bit quicker of late, and this game doesn't mean much to them with the conference tournament just around the corner.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have excelled at controlling the tempo since they decided to change styles after a bad loss in MVC play. Dana Ford's team is consistently keeping the pace of the game at a maximum of 61 possessions per game. The first meeting with Northern Iowa was played at 56 possessions.

If this game goes at 58 or 59 possessions, it would take some very high shooting percentages to get this one past the posted total.

In Missouri State's last 8 games, only one of them got to this total (131 exactly). The other 7 were under this total, and many were well under the total.

I see a good amount of value here.

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* The Ball State Cardinals have played some better basketball of late. Ball State has won three straight contests, and they will be looking for road revenge here.

Miami (OH) has played very good defense in recent weeks. How good? Miami hasn't allowed any of their last eight opponents to average more than 1.05 points per possession against them. Miami has been better than their season average in effective field goal percentage in 9 of their last 10 games. This defense has improved by leaps and bounds during the season.

Ball State has been great defensively of late as well. Ball State is 35th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense on the year. The Cardinals haven't allowed more than 1.06 points per possession in their last ten games.

Miami has played nine games in a row under this posted total in regulation. The Redhawks will work to slow this game down, and both offenses have had trouble getting to 1 point per possession in recent contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have changed the way they play since being shorthanded and without Weathers leading the way for their offense. Since he has been gone, Oklahoma State is averaging a little more than 20 seconds per possession on offense. The Cowboys have scored 72 or less in every Big 12 game since then. They have scored 61 points or fewer in 5 of their 7 Big 12 games since that time. Oklahoma State hasn't played a conference game to anything faster than 64 possessions since that time either.

TCU has been playing to the pace of their opponents of late. The Horned Frogs aren't nearly as efficient on offense this year as they were a year ago. They are also much better defensively.

The first meeting between these two finished at 138, and that was with some solid shooting numbers. 

Given the change of styles for Oklahoma State, I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Nebraska Cornhuskers season has really fallen apart thanks in large part to injuries. Since Chris Copeland went down with an injury, Nebraska's offense has fallen off in a huge way.

Nebraska had only scored less than 69 points once in the Big Ten before Copeland was injured. In the games since, Nebraska has scored 60, 51, 64, 45, 62, and 62 points. The Cornhuskers were extremely inefficient for several games, and now in their last couple games they have decided to drastically slow down the pace. 

Northwestern ranks dead last in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency. The Wildcats are averaging just 0.917 points per possession in league play. The Wildcats have played 5 of their last 7 games below this low total.

Four of Nebraska's last six games have stayed under this total as well.

Expect a slow paced game between two teams who are struggling badly on offense right now.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LA Monroe Warhawks and the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns share something in common- neither one of them plays much defense at all.

Monroe is giving up 1.137 points per possession inside Sun Belt action. That's some terrible defense, and it all starts with allowing opponents to shoot 56.2% on two point field goal attempts.

Louisiana Lafayette is allowing a league worst 1.15 points per possession in Sun Belt play. They are allowing opponents to shoot 40.3% from 3 point range. 

Both teams excel at getting to the line. Monroe shoots a very impressive 79.7% from 3 point range as a team. Louisiana shoots a very solid 75.7% from the stripe.

In league play, these are the number one and number two teams in terms of efficiency on offense. 

The first game between these two was 99-95 and played at a blistering 84 possessions.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game between these two teams finished 82-70, and the shooting numbers were very poor. The game was played to a very fast 79 possession pace. 

Fresno State has wanted to run when they can this year, and New Mexico goes as fast as anyone in the MWC. 

The Lobos are using the press a lot and looking to get out in transition. Their fastest paced games of the year have come recently.

The teams shot a combined 12/57 from 3 point range in the first game that finished a few points above this total. Both teams created a lot of second chance looks in that game.

This should be a tight game, and I see plenty of fouls with the two aggressive defenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Dayton Flyers and VCU Rams meet in a key A 10 showdown on Saturday afternoon. Dayton is the most efficient offense in the A 10. VCU is the fastest paced team in the A 10. 

VCU does play good defense, but with the tempo this will be played at and the efficiency that Dayton has scored at this year, this is a very low total. 

The first game between these two was 76-71. I'm not sure this one will be that high, but I think this total is set several points too low. Look for a tight game with plenty of free throws. Overtime is always possible with the line set at 1.5 as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars have slowed their tempo down drastically of late. BYU has played seven straight games under their season average for tempo. That's the sign of a team changing their pace in a big way. 

Loyola Marymount ranks 349th in the country in average length of possession. They are using up 20.6 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average in WCC action.

These two teams played just two weeks ago. BYU won 67-49 in a game that played to only 61 possessions. Marymount will do their best to slow this one down again. I think they get the tempo of their choosing.

BYU has had 3 of their last 4 games go under this total. Loyola Marymount has had their past 7 games all stay under this total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The VCU Rams play at an extremely fast pace. VCU is averaging 70 possessions per game in the A10. They have been excellent on defense this year, but Richmond is both one of the most efficient offenses in the league and one of the worst defenses.

Richmond is 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency. They are 12th in the league in defensive efficiency. Three of Richmond's last four games have gotten to 148 points or more. 

VCU has seen 4 of their last 5 games go over this total. The Rams are picking up the pace even more in recent contests.

With VCU pushing the pace and Richmond's defense being weak while their offense is efficient, I think this total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers are excellent at controlling the pace of the game. Wisconsin is averaging only 62.9 possessions per game in the Big Ten. Their last four games have all played to 61 possessions or fewer.

Michigan State was pushing the pace quite a bit in the non-conference portion of their schedule, but the Spartans have slowed down more than a possession per game in the Big Ten. 

Michigan State ranks 9th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Wisconsin ranks 7th in defensive efficiency. It should be hard to find open looks in this one. 

Both of these teams have been good at defending without fouling. 

Five of Michigan State's last 8 games have stayed under this number in regulation. Wisconsin has seen 11 of their last 12 Big Ten games stay under this number in regulation.

This should be a hard fought defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The LA Clippers have a whole different look than they did a couple weeks ago. The Clippers rank 12th in offensive efficiency in the NBA for the entire season, but they rank only 21st in offensive efficiency in the last eight games. They have lost a lot of key offensive players during the trade deadline period.

Minnesota ranks 24th in pace in the NBA in their last eight games. They have slowed things down quite a bit in recent contests. The Timberwolves have a lot of injury issues at the point guard spot, and that has led them to slow the tempo. 

The Clippers are 10-2 to the under in their last 12 road games. For a game with a pace that isn't extremely high, this is an awfully high total.

Two of the three referees in this game are big under referees. Eric Dalen has a career under percentage of 56.6% (307 Unders 235 Overs).

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Missouri State changed the way they played a few games ago. Dana Ford is a defensive-minded coach, and he was unhappy with the defense this team was playing. They started slowing things down dramatically and focusing on taking care of the ball and working hard on defense. It is working very well. Missouri State has won 4 of their last 5 games. 

What has happened with their tempo? Missouri State is averaging 67 possessions per game for the year, but none of their last five games have finished with a pace of anything faster than 58 possessions in regulation. That's as dramatic of a pace change as you'll see in the middle of the season. Those five games have all finished at 124 points or lower.

Missouri State is using up more than 20 seconds of the shot clock on average in the MVC.

Illinois State has slowed down a bit of late, and the RedBirds have played three straight games that have finished under this total.

Illinois State is 3rd in the MVC in defensive efficiency. Missouri State is first. The two teams are 5th and 6th in offensive efficiency.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jackson State is playing extremely slowly in SWAC play. Jackson State is using up 20.8 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on an average possession in league play. Alcorn State ranks 272nd out of 353 teams in tempo, so they aren't very quick either.

Jackson State is 347th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Alcorn State is 348th in that same category. These are two extremely inefficient offenses. 

Both teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in turnover percentage on offenses, so that's one of their big weaknesses is handling the ball. On defense, both teams rank in the top 108 in the country in forcing turnovers. A lot of wasted possessions are likely here.

The last three meetings between these two have finished at 115, 117, and 111 points. Though this total is very low, Jackson State has seen 7 of their last 10 games finish with 118 points or fewer.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and the Texas State Bobcats have played six games against each other since Coastal Carolina joined the Sun Belt. The average final total in those games is 115 points. One of those games went into overtime and it only finished 56-54. 

The defensive schemes that these two run have had the upper hand against the offenses on a consistent basis. Texas State is a defense-first team who is great at controlling the pace of the game. 

Coastal Carolina has shown itself to be a team that plays to the pace of the opponent. That's a good thing in this game since Texas State is both the home team and the team who plays slowly on a consistent basis. 

Coastal Carolina and Texas State both have turnover trouble on offense, so a lot of empty possessions should hurt the offensive efficiency numbers in this one.

These teams have had all kinds of low scoring contests of late. I think this will be another one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UT Martin Skyhawks have slowed their tempo down drastically in recent games. They rank 11th in the league in average possession length on offense. Who is 12th? The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles.

UT Martin has seen 4 of their last 5 slowest paced games come in their last 5 contests. They have played five straight games below their average tempo on the season. They have clearly decided to slow things down. 

Tennessee Tech ranks last in offensive efficiency in the OVC, and it isn't very close. The Golden Eagles are only averaging 0.904 points per possession on the year. They are third in the league in defensive efficiency though.

UT Martin's defense isn't good, but they have been a bit better of late. They also rank 12th in the country at defending without fouling. That's important since the primary way Tennessee Tech has scored this year has been getting to the line. 

The recent trends point to an under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are coming off a disappointing home loss to Austin Peay. That loss dropped them into a 4 way tie for first place in the OVC. 

Tennessee Martin wasn't having any success before, so they have decided to change up their style in recent games. They are running a zone defense part of the time, and they are playing much slower offensively. 

Each of Martin's last five games have played to a pace slower than their season average even though they have played some very fast paced opponents. 

Jacksonville State is slightly slower paced than most teams in the OVC, and they have the single best defense in the league. UT Martin's best offense is their ability to grab offensive boards, but Jacksonville State is easily first in the league in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Neither team gets to the line much either. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks have been playing a lot of zone defense of late. Cal's offense isn't very good against man, but they are terrible against zone. Cal actually ranks in the 61st percentile in the country in offense against man defense. They rank in the 15th percentile in the country against zone defenses. 

Oregon ranks as the slowest paced team as far as their offensive pace alone (length of time they possess the ball on an average offensive possession). Cal ranks as the second slowest. There isn't any reason to expect a quick pace here.

The under has been a good bet in the long term in college basketball over with a big favorite at home. 

The under is 9-1 in Oregon's last 10 as a home favorite of 10 points or more as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have changed the way they play of late. Oklahoma State has been playing a lot of zone, and they have slowed things down in a huge way on offense. Oklahoma State was averaging 16.5-17 seconds per possession on offense earlier this year. Michael Weathers is out now and the team has a new primary ball handler. Depth on the whole is a big issue. Oklahoma State has played three Big 12 games without Weathers, and the tempo in each of those games played to 61.4, 60.5, and 58.5 possessions. They have used a little more than 21 seconds of the shot clock on average in those games. They are stalling in a big way.

TCU has been awful defensively in their last two games. Jamie Dixon said they are emphasizing defense here, and the Horned Frogs have been much better at home on defense than on the road. TCU has allowed only 0.905 points per possession on their home floor this year. I would expect a better effort here.

With a slow pace and zone being played, this is a lot of points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wyoming Cowboys have had to slow things down this year thanks to some terrible injury/suspension issues in the program. Wyoming has been playing with seven players most of the season. The Cowboys are using up 20 seconds of the shot clock on average in Mountain West play. They are easily the slowest paced team in the league. 

Air Force ranks 10th out of 12 teams in the league in tempo. The Falcons always prefer a halfcourt game, and they'll be happy to play slowly with Wyoming here.

Air Force's defense is improved from the last couple seasons. They are giving up only 1.023 points per possession at home in league play. 

Wyoming's offense has been terrible in general, and they have been particularly bad on the road. Wyoming ranks 347th in the nation in offensive efficiency on the road. Wyoming is averaging an awful 0.836 points per possession in MWC play.

Air Force and Wyoming have played three straight meetings that have gone under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have decided to play a completely different way than they did earlier this year. Missouri State's first-year coach Dana Ford is known as a very good defensive-minded coach. He wasn't happy with the team's defense earlier this year. They have decided to slow the game down and try to win with defense and ball control of late. It is working.

Missouri State has won 3 of their last 4. The Bears rank second in the MVC in defensive efficiency. They are first in two point field goal percentage defense in the league. 

Missouri State was consistently playing games at a pace of 70 possessions just a few weeks ago. Lately, their pace has slowed drastically. Missouri State averages 67.8 possessions per game on the year. How have their last four games looked as far as tempo? Their last four games have paced to 51.5 possessions, 56.9 possessions, 55.2 possessions, and 55.8 possessions. 

Southern Illinois rank 304th in the nation in tempo, so they should be happy to play at a slow tempo as well. The Salukis are turning the ball over on 22% of their offensive possessions (worst in the league). Missouri State is first in the MVC in forced turnover percentage, so there should be a lot of empty trips for Southern Illinois. Southern Illinois is 7th in the nation in defending without fouling.

I expect a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats should slow the pace down here. I don't think they want to get up and down with Kansas. Kansas State is on their home floor, and they are excellent on defense. 

According to TeamRankings, Kansas is averaging only 0.981 points per possession on the road. This Kansas offense isn't as good as some of the most recent Kansas teams. In the last three seasons, Kansas rated in the top 12 every year in effective field goal percentage offense according to KenPom. This year they are 74th thus far. 

Kansas State ranks fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.851 points er possession when playing at home. Kansas ranks 13th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

In Kansas State's last 14 games, the two highest scoring games were 135 and 140 points total. 

This total has been pushed up too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Akron's last 10 games have gone 9-1 under this total. Akron is consistently slowing games down and turning games into a rock fight. Toledo was a team that pushed the pace and played poor defense in the past, but that isn't true this season.

Toledo ranks 31st in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Akron ranks 35th in that same statistic. Toledo is 228th in average possession length (slower than average). Akron is even slower at 281st in the country.

Toledo has played four of their last six games under this total. The Rockets aren't the same team they were the last couple seasons.

There has been some over steam in this game, and it is plenty to make this a valuable under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints are playing far slower than anyone else in the country. They rank 353rd in average possession length. How slow are they playing? They are taking 21.8 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. The second slowest team is taking 20.8 seconds of the shot clock on average. To be a full second slower than the second slowest team out of 353 is pretty remarkable.

Jamion Christian was known as a good defensive coach coming into this year. Siena had a hard time learning his system to start the year, but they are playing some excellent defense of late. The Saints are first in the MAAC in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.947 points per possession in the league. 

There are 11 teams in the MAAC. Fairfield is 10th in the league at getting to the free throw line. Siena is 11th. There shouldn't be many free throw attempts here. 

Fairfield has been playing to the pace of their opponent of late, which is a good sign for the under in this one.

Fairfield has seen four of their last eight games finish at 117 points or fewer. 

Siena has seen six straight games finish at 123 points or fewer. 

I expect another low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have decided to play differently. Dana Ford is known as a defensive-minded coach, but in his first few games as coach at Missouri State this team was playing quickly and wasn't very efficient on defense. They re-committed to working hard on the defensive end, and they have slowed their pace down dramatically in recent games.

Missouri State was routinely playing games to a pace of about 70 possessions per game for a long time. The Bears have played completely differently in their last three games. Their last three games have played to a pace of 51.5, 56.9, and 55.2 possessions. That is as slow as you will ever see. Strong defense and a slow pace has led to games that finished at 105, 92, and 98 points total at the end of regulation (the final game went into OT and finished with 109 points). 

Northern Iowa is going back to playing pretty slowly after experimenting with a faster pace earlier this year. They rank 325th in the nation in tempo, and are unlikely to push the issue much here.

This projects as a tight game where the defenses have the upper hand and everything stays in the halfcourt.

The recent trends are too strong for me to pass up this one.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* There are nine teams in the Atlantic Sun. Liberty is easily the slowest paced team. It's a completely different game when you go up against the Flames. They have played 5 of their 8 games in the league to a pace of 62 possessions or less. 

NJIT has been great defensively this year. They are allowing only 0.881 points per possession in the league. They have been significantly better on defense on the road than at home on the season. In the same way, Liberty has been much better on offense on the road, and stronger on defense at home. 

This game projects at a pace of 60-61 possessions. These teams would have to shoot well or get into a fouling fest to get past this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats have been involved in a ton of extremely low scoring games this year. Kansas State has seen 5 of their last 8 games finish with 120 points or less. The Wildcats rank 4th in defensive efficiency in the country. 

Kansas State has been the slowest paced team in the Big 12 this year. They are using 19.9 seconds of the shot clock on average. The Wildcats are averaging just 0.989 points per possession in league play.

Oklahoma State has changed the way they play without Michael Weathers. It is clear that this team decided to slow things down drastically without their star guard. They held Iowa State and Oklahoma, two of the fastest paced teams in the league, to just 61 possessions and 60 possessions. In those games alone, they used more than 20 seconds per possession on offense.

A slow paced hard fought game here, and I expect it to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and the UT Arlington Mavericks have more in common than you would think. Texas State ranks 1st in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency. UT Arlington ranks second in the conference in defensive efficiency. Texas State ranks as the slowest paced team in the league. UT Arlington is the second slowest team in the league. 

Most teams in the Sun Belt want to run and gun all the time. There can be a lot of very high scoring games with poor defense in this league. I think that creates value in a game like this. These teams are more like each other than anyone else in the league. They should be happy to play this game in the halfcourt and grind it out.

My number is five points lower than this total, so I'll take the under and expect a defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas always want to push the pace. Only one team is pushing the pace on offense in the MAC more than them and that is Buffalo. Central Michigan is averaging only 15.6 seconds per possession on offense. The Chippewas are 19th in the country in FTA/FGA, so they get to the line a lot. They also shoot it well from 3 point range. In MAC play, they are shooting 38.5% from long range.

Western Michigan is a team that has decided to pick up the pace of late. The Broncos have averaged 69.5 possessions per game for the year, but six straight contests have paced out to a 69.8 possession pace or quicker. They have decided to run. They'll get their chance to run against Central Michigan here.

Both teams are good at getting offensive rebounds, and neither team is good on the defensive glass. Second chance opportunities can be key for the over.

An up and down game where late fouling is a real possibility with a spread of 9 points. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers are as good as anyone in the country at controlling the pace of the game. Wisconsin is going to force you to play a game at their tempo. They aren't getting out in the open floor. They want a halfcourt game where they often excel.

Wisconsin is 342nd out of 353 teams in the country in length of time used per possession. The Badgers are using up 19.8 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average in Big Ten play. Wisconsin has seen 7 of their last 8 games stay under this total. In fact, 6 of those 8 games finished at 124 points or lower.

Maryland has slowed down significantly of late as far as tempo. The first game between these two was only 61 possessions. The Terrapins are 4th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. Wisconsin is second (they are 5th in the nation). 

Maryland and Wisconsin have met seven times since Maryland joined the Big Ten and all 7 games have finished with a final total of 131 points or less. I don't see any reason to expect this one to be different.

Take the under. 

*3 Star TGIF NBA Totals Takedown* The Utah Jazz were just humiliated in Portland on Wednesday night. Portland scored 45 points in the first quarter on their way to winning 132-105 over the Jazz. This is a Utah team that prides itself on defense, and their defense was at its very worst in their last game.

Utah now comes home to take on an Atlanta team that averages only 1.039 points per possession on the road this year. The Jazz should be focused on the defensive end here after that terrible performance in Portland.

There is a great angle backing this under. The under is a whopping 117-72 (61.9%) in Utah's home games against a team with a winning percentage of 50% or lower with a total of 194 or higher since 2006. 

Utah tends to blow out bad teams and win with defense in these games. I expect a bounce back here and this is a very high total considering the spot.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Davidson Wildcats are a completely different team than they were a year ago. Davidson ranked 16th in the nation in offensive efficiency last year. They rank 144th this year. Davidson was only 120th in defensive efficiency last year, but they are 61st this year. 

Davidson was averaging 1.167 points per possession on offense last year in A10 play. They average 1.00 points per possession in the A10 this year. On defense, they allowed 0.999 points per possession last year, but they are allowing only 0.911 points per possession in A10 play this year.

Davidson hasn't had a single game in league play finish with more than 137 points. They have had 5 of the 7 finish at 126 points or lower. That includes games against fast paced VCU and Duquesne. 

St. Bonaventure plays much slower this year. The Bonnies no longer have two stars in Adams and Mobley. They are trying to win with defense this year. The Bonnies ranked 104th fastest in tempo last year in the country. They are 326th this year. They are slowing down a lot more of late also. Their average possessions per game is 64.8 for the year, but 6 of their last 7 games have played to a pace of 62.8 possessions or slower.

This number has pushed up too far. I expect a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks have completely changed the way they play. Oregon is no longer running the floor. Oregon ranks as the slowest paced offense in the Pac 12 this season. The Ducks are looking to run the clock and pass the ball around a lot on the offensive end. Defensively, Oregon is using a zone defense the majority of the time. That's important because Utah has been great against a man defense, but they have struggled against zones. They rank in the top 35% of offenses in the country against man offenses. They rank in the bottom 35% of offenses against a zone.

Utah's defense has been much improved in recent weeks, and Oregon hasn't been efficient away from home. The Utes are a solid defensive rebounding team, and they don't foul often either.

Both meetings between these two last year stayed under this number, and both games were played at an extremely slow pace. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah Valley Wolverines have been known as an offensive juggernaut under Mark Pope. He is a brilliant offensive head coach. Utah Valley goes against the worst defense in the WAC tonight in Cal Baptist. 

Cal Baptist is allowing 1.116 points per possession this year despite the 22nd easiest slate of offenses in the country according to KenPom. Utah Valley is the 2nd or 3rd best offense they have played so far this year. 

Utah Valley ranks 17th in the country in FTA/FGA, so they live at the line. Cal Baptist fouls the 10th most out of 353 teams in the nation. Cal Baptist is good at getting to the line on offense as well. In conference, these two teams are shooting 76.5% and 80% from the free throw line.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The America East Conference is known for low scoring defensive battles. I expect another one of those in this contest.

UMBC is 319th in the country in tempo, and they have been excellent at controlling the pace of the game. Their games are consistently played at 65 possessions or fewer. UMBC also does a great job limiting second chance opportunities. They also rank 8th in the country in forced turnovers percentage.

Stony Brook is an average paced team, but they are extremely inefficient on offense thanks to poor shooting and some major turnover woes. They are turning it over on more than 25% of their offensive possessions in the conference. They are only averaging 0.897 points per possession in the league.

Stony Brook's last 5 games have all been 125 or lower in regulation. For UMBC, 5 of their last 7 games have finished with 117 points or fewer.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* No team in the country has changed more than Missouri State. The Missouri State Bears hired a defensive-minded coach in Dana Ford. Missouri State started the season out playing some very bad defense. They were pushing pace and looking to outscore teams in high scoring games and it wasn't working. Ford's team slowed things down and worked hard on defense. It has paid off of late. 

Missouri State had the worst defense in non-conference play of any MVC team. They have the best defense in terms of efficiency in league play. They are trapping much more often and creating a bunch of turnovers. On offense, they are slowing things down and winning the low scoring battles. 

Missouri State has played its last two games to a pace of 52 and 57 possessions (extremely slow). Valparaiso plays at the second slowest pace in the league, so they should be happy to play a slow it down contest here. 

Valparaiso has some severe injury concerns. Leading scorer Ryan Fazekas (12.7 ppg) has missed the last few games and he is out again here. Markus Golder is the team's third leading scorer and he injured his ankle in the team's loss to Drake last time out. He will miss the game. 

I think both defenses have the upper hand here, and the pace should be very slow.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders are a tremendous defensive team. Chris Beard is one of the best coaches in the country, and he is a defense-first coach. Texas Tech ranked 5th in defensive efficiency in the country according to KenPom last year. They are first this year. They allowed 0.908 points per possession last year. They are giving up only 0.841 points per possession this year. 

TCU was a poor defense last year. The Horned Frogs ranked 248th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense last year. What about this year? They rank 18th! TCU is much improved on defense. 

Both teams are much worse on offense. TCU ranked 9th in offensive efficiency a year ago, but they are only 40th best this year. Texas Tech ranked 50th best in offensive efficiency last year. They are 140th so far this year. Neither team has as many scoring options, and it has hurt them quite a bit.

Texas Tech has seen 12 of their last 13 games stay under this total. The one that went over finished at 135 points. TCU has played three straight games that have finished at 126 points or less.

A hard fought defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes have been the fastest paced team in the Big Ten every year in the last few seasons. Iowa has always been pretty good on offense, but they have taken it to another level this year. They rank 10th in offensive efficiency in the country. Iowa's offense has scored 89 points or more three times in their last six games. 

Minnesota also plays quicker than the average Big Ten team. The Golden Gophers are an elite offensive rebounding team as well, and Iowa has had a lot of trouble on the defensive glass in the Big Ten. 

Both of these teams are great at getting to the free throw line. Minnesota ranks 7th in the nation and Iowa is 4th in FTA/FGA. 

The last three games between these two teams have sailed over this posted total. This should be another uptempo high scoring contest. The spread is set at one as well, and overtime here wouldn't be a stunner either.

I think this one gets at least into the mid 150's.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos host the Wyoming Cowboys on Saturday afternoon. When these two teams met in early January, the final score was 69-55. Both teams actually shot the ball a little better than they normally have this year. The game was just played at a very slow pace of 61 possessions. 

Wyoming has changed the way they play because they had to based on injuries/suspensions. Wyoming is playing only seven guys now, and they are using up about 20 seconds of the shot clock on average. The Cowboys simply can't use the run and gun style they have used in past seasons.

In their last six games, Wyoming has failed to score more than 59 points in a single contest. Boise State has an above average defense. The Broncos are also fine with playing at a slow pace, and they should have a lead and be milking the clock late in this game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Fordham Rams defense looks like it is good on the surface. I don't think their defense is good. Fordham has played the 353rd toughest schedule of offenses this year according to Ken Pom (out of 353 teams in the country). They will be exposed over time. Dayton ranks second in the country in two point field goal percentage at 60.0%. Fordham is allowing 60.5% on two point field goals inside Atlantic 10 conference action.

Both of these teams are efficient in transition on offense, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see quite a few easy buckets. Fordham's post defense is very weak, and Dayton has a couple guys who should be able to take advantage of that. 

Last year's meeting between these two was 80-70. I don't think this one will be that high, but I do think it goes over this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is played at Madison Square Garden. Madison Square Garden has some of the worst sight lines for shooters, and it has really bothered college teams in the past. It especially bothers teams who aren't accustomed to playing at MSG. 

Maryland has slowed their pace of play quite a bit in recent weeks. The Terrapins are using 19.2 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average in Big Ten play. Maryland is also turning the ball over a lot, and the strength of the Illinois defense is forcing turnovers.

Illinois isn't good at running halfcourt sets on offense. They look to get out in transition, but Maryland has been very good in transition defense. Illinois is averaging only 0.973 points per possession inside the Big Ten. Maryland's defense ranks 4th best in the Big Ten.

Unders in college games at Madison Square Garden are 138-102 (57.5%) dating back to 2007. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* They always say defense travels, and so far this year that has been the case for the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan's defense allows 0.840 points per possession at home according to Team Rankings, and 0.853 points per possession so far this year on the road. That road number is first in the nation.

Indiana allows 0.839 points per possession at home and 1.051 points per possession on the road. The Hoosiers aren't a bad defensive team either. 

Michigan ranked 56th in effective field goal percentage offense last year. They rank 110th so far this year. They are slightly better on defense this year than a year ago. 

Indiana has slowed their tempo a lot in Big Ten play. In fact, the first meeting between these two (in Michigan) played to a pace of just 59 possessions. Both teams shot it far above their season averages and the final total was 137 points.

I would expect a slow pace again and more normalized shooting numbers.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies have slowed their pace down drastically from a year ago. They are averaging 3 possessions per game fewer than they did a year ago. Oregon has slowed their tempo down a lot as well. They are playing 2 possessions per game slower this year.

Washington is getting better and better in this matchup zone defense. Pac 12 teams are having a really hard time getting open looks. The Huskies ranked 166th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They rank 14th in that statistic this year. Oregon is much better on defense now that they are playing zone as well. The Ducks were 147th last year in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 37th this year. 

Oregon has been much worse against zone defenses than man defenses this year. Washington has been just a touch worse against zone defenses than man. 

Both of these teams turn the opposition over a lot, and both teams can go through some long scoring droughts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Hofstra Pride have some crazy home/road splits this year. According to TeamRankings, Hofstra is averaging 1.24 points per possession at home. They are averaging only 1.029 points per possession on the road. What about their defense? They are allowing 1.023 points per possession at home. They are giving up only 0.940 points per possession on the road. Not surprisingly, the under is 7-1 in their road games this year.

This is a flat spot for Hofstra coming after two key wins over UNC Wilmington and College of Charleston. I see their offense being worse here than they have been in recent games.

James Madison will try to slow the tempo down, and the Dukes struggle badly against zone defenses. Hofstra is so much better this year because they have changed to a zone defense and it has been tremendous. James Madison ranks in the 35th percentile against man defenses according to Synergy Sports, which isn't good, but it is better than their 16th percentile offense against a zone. 

The recent history between these two shows all four meetings in the last two years staying under this total in regulation. That's impressive since Hofstra had much higher scoring games in the last two years than they have had this year (the zone is slowing the opposition down).

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference is a very low scoring conference overall. Most of the teams in the MVC are strong defensively and questionable on offense. 

Drake is without Nick Norton, their best passer and ball handler. Drake is still shooting the ball pretty well, but their turnover rate is up quite a bit since he has been out. The Bulldogs have also slowed their tempo by about one second per possession on average without Norton on the floor.

Evansville has played one second per possession slower in MVC play than they did in the non-conference slate. Walter McCarty's team is much better on defense than offense. Evansville ranks 280th in offensive efficiency, but they are a very solid 82nd in defensive efficiency. 

The first meeting between these two was 58-58 before overtime. After the first overtime it was 64-64. 

Drake's last three games have all stayed well under this total. Evansville has seen 6 of their last 7 games stay under this total in regulation.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves find ways to turn games into extremely sloppy contests. Those games are very often extremely low scoring as well. This game has been bet up a few points since the opener, and at this price I'll take the under.

Illinois State is playing relatively fast, though they are playing noticeably slower than they did a year ago. The Redbirds are less efficient on offense as well, and they rarely get to the free throw line. 

Bradley ranks 295th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are averaging only 0.853 points per possession in MVC play so far this year.

Bradley's final totals in MVC contests thus far have been: 112, 125, 111, 133, 121, and 111 points. None above this posted total. 

The last four meetings between Illinois State and Bradley have produced final totals of 118, 114, 127, and 128 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials are terrible on offense. George Washington ranks 315th in offensive efficiency according to KenPom. They were 196th last season, so they have gotten much worse.

Davidson was a great offense last year, but they lost a couple key contributors. Davidson ranked 15th in the nation in offensive efficiency last year. They are 128th so far this season.

Davidson was 120th in defensive efficiency last year, but they are up to 66th in defensive efficiency this season. 

Both teams are playing at a similar tempo this year, but they have become far less efficient on offense. 

This total has been pushed up by 4 points, and I see too much value on the under to pass it up now.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Western Michigan Broncos rank 242nd in the nation in offensive efficiency according to Ken Pom. Ohio ranks 317th in the nation in offensive efficiency. These are two very inefficient offenses. 

Western Michigan is playing a little quicker than they did a year ago, but they are better on defense and worse on offense.

Ohio is much worse on offense, and they are playing significantly slower. The Bobcats are using 18.9 seconds on each offensive possession on average (16.6 last year) in league play. 

Both of these offenses have struggled badly with turnovers on the offensive end. They are having far too many trips where they don't even get a shot up. 

Western Michigan has seen 8 of their last 14 stay under this total. Ohio has seen 4 of their first 5 MAC games finish regulation at 127 points or lower. 

Ohio is great on the defensive glass, and both teams have been good at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Auburn Tigers travel to South Carolina to take on the Gamecocks. Auburn is coming off a tough home loss to Kentucky. Bruce Pearl is a 7.5 point favorite here. 

Auburn is quite a bit more efficient on offense so far this year than they were a year ago. Auburn ranks 10th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Last year, they ranked 26th in this statistic. 

South Carolina ranked 161st in offensive efficiency last year, but they are up to #137 this year. Even more importantly, South Carolina was 153rd in tempo last year, but they have been the 24th fastest paced team in the country this year. 

Auburn's transition offense is much more efficient this year according to Synergy Sports. They rank in the 78th percentile in transition offense efficiency in the country. Last year, they ranked in the bottom half of the country in that statistic. That's especially important since South Carolina's transition defense was their biggest strength last year, but now it is their biggest weakness on defense. They rank in the bottom 18 percent of teams in transition defense this season.

Both teams get to the line a lot, and both teams get a bunch of offensive rebounds here as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights aren't a very good team, but they play very hard. Their defense has struggled on the road, but at home they have been very good. According to TeamRankings, Rutgers is allowing only 0.883 points per possession at home this year. On the road, they are allowing 1.093 points per possession.

Rutgers has seen 6 of their last 8 home games finish with a total of 125 points or lower. They are going to do their best to make this game a hard fought low scoring contest, because that is their best chance here.

Nebraska is 6th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Cornhuskers have played nearly one second per possession on offense slower than they did a year ago. In their last three games (Penn State, Indiana, and Michigan State), the final totals have all been 134 or lower. 

The last three times Nebraska and Rutgers have gotten together, the final totals have been 129, 114, and 122 points. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames have been excellent at controlling the pace this year. They forced Jacksonville into a game with only 61 possessions, and Jacksonville averages 73 possessions per game. Jacksonville's second slowest game this year was 66 possessions. Liberty has played four of their last five games to 62 possessions or fewer.

North Alabama ranks 334th in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 341st in effective field goal percentage offense. They have had trouble with turnovers this year, and Liberty excels at forcing turnovers.

According to Synergy Sports, North Alabama ranks in the 4th percentile in offense in half court sets. They are better in transition, but Liberty ranks in the 100th percentile in transition defense. 

North Alabama has been decent on defense this year, and their best area has been guarding the 3 point shot. That's what Liberty does a lot is take outside shots.

Liberty should win comfortably here, and they have shown that they grind the game down to a halt with a big lead.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks are setting up in a zone defense nearly every time now. Dana Altman's team wasn't playing good defense in the man to man defense, and to Altman's credit he decided to change things up and go zone. It has worked. Oregon is 27th in effective field goal percentage defense. They were 147th last year. Kenny Wooten just returned to the team last game, and he is one of the best shot blockers in the country. The defense should improve even more with him.

Oregon is slowing the pace down much more than they did a year ago. On offense, they are using 19.2 seconds on average before putting up a shot. The Ducks were 76th in effective field goal percentage on offense last year. They are 149th this year.

Arizona State will try to push the pace here. The Sun Devils were 18th in offensive efficiency last year and 123rd in defensive efficiency. They are 83rd in offensive efficiency and 65th in defensive efficiency this year. 

Last year, the two contests between these two edged past this total, but these are totally different teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas Tech and Baylor meet in Waco on Saturday evening. Baylor ranks 311th in tempo in the country. The Bears have consistently played at a very slow pace over the last few seasons. Texas Tech ranks 219th in tempo.

Texas Tech has the #1 defensive in terms of defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy. The Red Raiders are first in two point percentage defense and 2nd in 3 point percentage defense. They are sixth in blocked shot percentage. This is a dominant defense.

Baylor ranks 43rd in defensive efficiency, and they are fifth in the country in blocked shot percentage.

According to Synergy Sports, Baylor is most efficient in transition on offense (they don't do it much), but Texas Tech ranks in the top one percent of transition defenses. They shouldn't give up easy ones. 

Baylor's defense in the half court has been great, but their transition defense is weak. Texas Tech is weakest in transition on offense though, and they typically slow things down. 

I like the matchups here and think we should see a hard fought low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane and UCF Knights are both playing significantly faster this season. 

Tulsa's average possession length last year was 17.9 seconds. This year it is 16.6 seconds. UCF's average possession length in AAC play last year was 19.5 seconds. It is 16.8 seconds so far this year. 

UCF ranked 281st in offensive efficiency last year. They rank 49th in that number this year. The Knights ranked 8th in defensive efficiency last year. They are 50th this year. 

UCF ranks first in the nation in free throws attempted/field goal attempts. Tulsa ranks 6th in this statistic. Both of these teams have been making a living at the line. The AAC referees have had a very quick whistle so far this season. 

I see these teams as different than last year, and I think there is value on the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Oregon is still a team that wants to slow things down. The Ducks have played arguably the two fastest teams in the Pac 12 in UCLA and USC in their last two games, and their higher scoring games in those contests have given the under more value here.

Arizona ranks 205th in the nation in tempo. Despite playing the 34th toughest slate of offenses according to KenPom, the Wildcats rank 22nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Oregon will move slowly and they aren't likely to get many second chances on offense.

The Arizona offense ranks in the 75th percentile in offensive efficiency against man defenses according to Synergy Sports. They rank in only the 42nd percentile against zone defenses. They'll see a lot of zone from Oregon here. 

Both teams rank in the top 12% of teams in the country in transition defense, so there aren't likely to be many easy scoring chances in transition.

Look for a low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I very rarely play overs this high, but I feel it is warranted here. Eastern Kentucky ranks second in the nation in tempo. The Colonels are averaging slightly more than 80 possessions per game. They face a UT Martin team here who ranks 55th in the nation in tempo. Their new coach wants them pushing the pace as well, so I wouldn't expect them to stall things out here.

The floor is very high for scoring in Eastern Kentucky games. The lowest total in any of their last seven games was 163 points. They had a 182 point game and a 202 point game in that time span. 

What about UT Martin. They haven't played anyone who goes even close to as fast as Eastern Kentucky, but they have managed to give up 92 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. UT Martin ranks 336th in defensive efficiency despite playing 227th toughest slate of offenses thus far. Eastern Kentucky has faced the 70th toughest list of defenses, so I believe their offense is a bit undervalued.

A strength for the UT Martin offense is offensive rebounds and that is a weakness for Eastern Kentucky. 

The spread here sits at six, which is a fouling margin and that could certainly push this over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Southern Eagles are a totally different team than they were last year or the year before. Georgia Southern ranked 155th in tempo two years ago. They ranked 134th in tempo last year. They rank sixth in the nation in tempo this year. They are shooting the ball almost 3 seconds quicker on an average possession now than they did last year in Sun Belt action. 

Troy has gotten worse on defense. The Trojans rank 296th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Trojans are slightly better on offense this year. 

The strength of both of these offenses is being efficient in transition, and that should lead to a bunch of points here. 

These two teams have a history of high scoring games against each other- and that was before Georgia Southern's move to a much faster tempo. In the last five meetings between these two, there hasn't been a single matchup that finished short of 159 points. With the faster pace, I like the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kennesaw State has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Owls rank dead last in Ken Pomeroy's effective field goal percentage. That's out of 353 teams. This offense is shooting a miserable 37.7% on two point field goals. Kennesaw State has been held to 53 points or less seven times this year.

Liberty plays at the single slowest pace of any team Kennesaw State has played so far this year. The Flames are good on offense, and they are likely to be pretty efficient here. Liberty is projected to coast to a win though, and they have shown they will grind the pace down to a halt with a big lead. Liberty is using nearly 22 seconds of the shot clock on average in their Atlantic Sun games (they have won each by at least 16 points). 

Kennesaw State typically plays pretty slowly as well, so I expect a very slow tempo here and I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Loyola Chicago's defense has been great throughout the course of the season, and they are even better defensively on their home floor. The Ramblers control tempo with the best of them, and Valparaiso isn't wanting to speed things up either. Valpo ranks 293rd in tempo out of 353 in country. Loyola ranks 320th. 

Loyola is second in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are 7th in the nation in defending without fouling. There aren't many easy points against this Ramblers defense. They have given up 49 points or less in four of their last seven contests overall.

Valpo is great at defending without fouling as well. The Crusaders have seen 4 of their last 5 games against Division I teams finish with 126 points or fewer.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The last time these two teams met Virginia Tech won at Virginia by a count of 61-60 in overtime. That game was played to a pace of 61 possessions even with an overtime, so the tempo was extremely slow. 

Virginia Tech is playing much differently this year. The Hokies used up 16.1 seconds of the shot clock on average last year. They are using up 18.1 seconds of the shot clock on average this year. The Hokies have slowed down dramatically. They are using 19.0 seconds of the clock in ACC play.

Virginia ranks 353rd out of 353 in the country in tempo. The Cavs are using 21.0 seconds of the shot clock on average in ACC play. They are second in the nation in defensive efficiency. Virginia has held 10 of their 15 opponents this year to 52 points or fewer. 

Virginia Tech has improved in a big way on defense. The Hokies ranked 156th in defensive efficiency two years ago. They ranked 70th last year. They rank 19th so far this year. 

Here's an under system for Virginia- When the total is 117 points or higher and they are either underdogs or favored by 11 points or less... the under is a whopping 40-12 (77%) since 2010. The system is 11-1 in the last 12 as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles rank 350th out of 353 teams in the nation in tempo. Eastern Michigan uses the Syracuse matchup zone to slow down the game. The Eagles have given a lot of teams in the MAC trouble with this zone defense. Last year, Akron scored only 49 and 58 points in their two games against Eastern Michigan. 

The Akron Zips defense was questionable last year, but they are very good on defense this season. Akron was 300th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 50th this year.

Both games between these two last year stayed easily under this total, and Akron is playing much higher quality defense now.

Akron ranks 309th in tempo as well, so they aren't likely to be pushing the pace here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines host the Northwestern Wildcats today. These two already played in Evanston this year with the Wolverines escaping with a 62-60 win.

Northwestern ranks 291st in the nation in tempo. Michigan ranks 323rd in the nation in tempo. The pace of this game will be slow. In fact, the last three times these teams have played none of the games have paced to any higher than 61 possessions (very slow). The final totals of these 3 games have been 105 points, 113 points, and 122 points.

There has been a move up on this total, and with the move up I have too much value to pass up the under. Northwestern is worse on offense this year than they were a year ago. The Wildcats are averaging only 0.928 points per possession inside the Big Ten. Michigan is slightly less efficient on offense than they were a year ago, and they are slightly better on defense than a year ago.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* A major clash of styles here. FIU ranks first in the nation in tempo. Old Dominion ranks among the 20 slowest in the nation. Why do I like the under here?

Neither team is efficient at all on offense. Old Dominion ranks 240th in effective field goal percentage on the year, and FIU ranks 241st. 

FIU gets out in transition all the time, but according to Synergy Sports, Old Dominion ranks among the top 5% of teams in the country at defending in transition. FIU isn't likely to get some of the easy looks that they normally do in transition.

Old Dominion is coming off their worst defensive game of the year on Thursday, and I fully expect them to be much better prepared on defense here. Old Dominion has consistently been able to slow games down against Marshall and make them low scoring, so they have proven capable of forcing a very fast opponent to play their game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both Monmouth and Manhattan are down this year compared to what they have been in recent seasons.

Monmouth has always liked to push the tempo in recent seasons, but they were playing very slowly in the non-conference slate. They aren't a very deep team, and they were outclassed by many of their much stronger foes. I was watching closely for signs of tempo changes in their first couple games in the MAAC. Monmouth decided to start playing faster again in those games. 

Manhattan is averaging 0.89 points per possession on the year, but in MAAC play they are at 1.09 points per possession. The Jaspers youngsters have started shooting the ball better of late. 

Both of these teams foul like crazy. Manhattan ranks 347th in fouling rate (out of 353) and Monmouth isn't much better at 341st. Expect a ton of free throws in this one.

With a total set this low, I like the value on the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are a really inefficient offense. Ohio ranks 292nd in offensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy. Ohio is turning the ball over on a whopping 22.4% of their offensive possessions. Ohio is shooting only 29.8% from 3 point range on the year.

Ohio is playing much slower this year than they have in the past. In their first two MAC games they are using 19.8 seconds of the shot clock on average, which is more than 3 seconds per trip more than they did last year. That's a pretty dramatic shift. 

Ball State likes to get out in transition, but the strength of the Ohio defense this year has been transition defense. The Bobcats are also good at limiting the opposition to one shot.

Last year when both teams were playing at a fast tempo, these teams got to 143 points. While Ball State has played quickly on the whole this year, their last two games they have played noticeably slower inside the conference.

This total has been pushed up too far for me to pass on it.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Wizards are a better defensive team without John Wall in the lineup. Washington ranks 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the season overall. Washington ranks 14th in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. 

Milwaukee ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Bucks are allowing only 1.027 points per possession in their last 10. Milwaukee has played slower on the road this year than at home. The Bucks have slowed down their tempo a bit in general in recent weeks, and the Wizards are a bit slower without Wall pushing it as well.

The under is 7-1 in the Bucks last 8 road games. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 games between these two teams. The under is 4-0 in the Wizards last 4 vs. the NBA Central. A 17-1 trend.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of the Week* The UCLA Bruins are playing significantly faster under Murray Bartow than they were under Steve Alford. He has the team pushing at all opportunities, and they are using the full court press far more often. UCLA's biggest strength is their athleticism and speed all over the floor, so this makes sense to me.

UCLA played their last game against Cal to a ridiculously fast pace of 88 possessions. That's about as fast as you'll see any college basketball game. The Bruins won't be able to force Oregon to go that fast, but this one should be a quick paced game.

Oregon likes to play the zone, but according to Synergy Sports UCLA is much better against the zone than man defense. 

UCLA has played 15 games this year. Only 2 of those games have stayed under this total. They are playing faster now than they were earlier this year.

Oregon has attempted to play slower of late, but Oregon State pushed them to a 74 possession game and UCLA will be pushing hard all the way here. Oregon still has some solid scorers, and this UCLA defense is only average.

Unless the shooting numbers are abnormally low, I think this one gets comfortably over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles rank 304th in average time of possession used on offense (time before they take a shot) in the country. That makes them among the 50 slowest teams in the nation.

Southern Miss ranks 264th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. The Golden Eagles almost never get to the line or get offensive rebounds, and that hurts their scoring ability a lot. 

MTSU plays at an average tempo, but the Blue Raiders are awful on offense. MTSU ranks 343rd out of 353 in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. MTSU ranks 351st in the nation in turnover percentage. Southern Miss turns people over at a high rate.

I expect a slow tempo and a lot of wasted possessions in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights aren't quite as bad on offense this year as they were a year ago, but they aren't good. They rank 294th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. Rutgers averages less than one point per possession on the year, and they are at only 0.975 points per possession in the Big Ten thus far.

Ohio State is a solid offense at 33rd in offensive efficiency. The Buckeyes are even better on defense though. They rank 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Buckeyes prefer to slow the game down, and Rutgers is most comfortable at this pace as well.

In their two games against each other last year the final totals were 131 and 114 points. 

Rutgers has seen 5 of their last 10 games stay at 125 points or lower in regulation. Ohio State gave up 86 points against Michigan State last game, and I think that has a lot to do with why the line moved up here, but Rutgers isn't Michigan State.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Towson Tigers play at an extremely slow tempo. Towson ranks 345th out of 353 teams in the country in overall tempo. Towson also ranks 296th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Tigers have scored 61 points or less in three of their last four games. 

Cornell has slowed their pace down significantly this year. The Big Red are 225th in overall tempo this year. They were 117th last season. Cornell is 217th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. 

We have two teams who prefer to slow the game down and are inefficient on offense. Cornell has seen only 3 of their last 8 games go over this total. Towson has seen 6 of their last 7 games go under the total.

There has been a line move up of 3 points, and that's enough for me to take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* We have two elite defenses in this one. Texas Tech ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma ranks sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. Texas Tech ranks 96th in offensive efficiency and Oklahoma ranks 71st in offensive efficiency.

Oklahoma is playing much slower than they did a year ago. They are using about two seconds more of the shot clock on an average possession than they did a year ago. The Sooners have had 133 and 138 games against Kansas and Oklahoma State. Texas Tech is much better on defense than those two and they play slower as well.

The Red Raiders have had 7 straight games stay under this total, and most haven't even been close to this number. 

Look for a very hard fought game where open shots are tough to come by. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bowling Green Falcons offense has been very efficient of late, but a closer look at who they have played against and it shouldn't be any surprise. They have been facing off against some terrible defenses. Bowling Green has played ten straight games games against a team with an adjusted defensive efficiency (points per possession) of 232nd or worse (out of 353 teams in the country) according to KenPom. 

That run stops here though since Ohio ranks 78th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bobcats are excellent at holding teams to one shot, and they have a good shot blocker in Doug Taylor. 

Ohio has pushed the tempo in past seasons, but they have slowed down in recent weeks. Never was that more evident than when they used 20.1 seconds on average of the 30 second shot clock in their last game against NIU. 

Bowling Green has been better on defense than offense in the last couple years, and I think their shooting numbers will cool off over time. The Falcons guard inside the arc very well, and Ohio struggles from 3 point range. 

Both teams are great on the defensive glass.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs just lost their best offensive player to a season-ending injury. Nick Norton had transferred over from UAB and done a brilliant job for this team. Norton had an assist rate ranking in the top 25 in the country according to KenPom. Norton was also shooting 38% from long range and 92% from the free throw line. Drake's offense was without him part of the game against Evansville, and they were extremely inefficient in that one. 

Loyola Chicago has the best defense in the conference, and it isn't even close. The Ramblers rank 13th best in the nation in points per possession allowed according to KenPom. Loyola is much less efficient on offense this year, since they lost three key scorers from last year's team.

Loyola is great at controlling the tempo. The Ramblers defense has been out of this world good in their last few games. Loyola has allowed 55 points or less in their last five straight games. That includes games against Maryland and St. Joe's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Towson Tigers experimented with playing quicker in the last two seasons, but they are back to playing very slowly this year. Towson ranks 344th out of 353 teams in the country in overall tempo. Towson was 188th last year. 

Towson was 144th in effective field goal percentage last year. They are 268th this season. Their defense ranks about the same as a year ago. Towson is clearly more of an under team than they were last year.

College of Charleston prefers a slow tempo as well. Charleston is arguably the best team in the conference, and they are very solid defensively. Charleston excels at defending without fouling, and Towson relies on getting to the line on offense.

I expect a slow tempo here, and I think this number should be in the 128-129 range.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I waited for this one to get bet up, and at this number I have to take the under. Kansas State is playing without Dean Wade and that weakens their offense significantly. Texas has been very inefficient on offense all year.

These are two of the top ten teams in the country in defensive efficiency according to Ken Pom. Both teams prefer a slow pace and neither team commits many fouls. Last year, these teams played a 58-48 contest.

Look for strong defense and two offenses who can't get many good looks. Texas is 223rd in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. Kansas State is 242nd. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I took the under the last time these two met and it cashed in a 66-54 win by Oregon at home. This is a rare non-conference rematch only two weeks later. Bol Bol will miss this game on Saturday once again for Oregon, and this team is clearly not the same without him.

Oregon has averaged only 61.33 points in their three games without Bol Bol. That is despite one of those games being against lowly Florida A&M. The Ducks have slowed their tempo down drastically of late. Oregon has played to a pace of 63 possessions or less in four of their last five games.

Oregon's defense has been tremendous this year. The Ducks have allowed 65 points or less in six straight games. They mix up their defenses well.

Boise State ranks in the bottom 100 in the country in tempo. The Broncos also do a great job limiting second chance opportunities. 

Neither team has any great scoring options with Bol out of the lineup for Oregon.

Another slow paced game and barring some high shooting numbers, I think it stays under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Christmas Day has been great to under bettors in the NBA since this tradition started. The strongest under angles come in the early games and in games that aren't between divisional opponents. This one meets both of those filters.

Milwaukee has been playing much better defense of late. The Bucks have allowed 105 points or less in 7 of their last 10 games. They have kept 4 of their last 10 opponents under 100 points. The Bucks have slowed their tempo a bit in recent weeks as well. 

The Knicks have the same offensive efficiency rate on the road as they have at home. The difference for them is they are better on defense at home than on the road. They get a home game at MSG on Christmas here.

This is such a high total and with there being question marks about whether these teams might pack it in early here or not, I have to take the value with the under.

The under is 27-11 in the last 38 non-divisional games on Christmas Day.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies are extremely well-coached by Chris Jans. Jans is a former assistant of Gregg Marshall's from Wichita State. He is a defense first guy, and you see that in the New Mexico State statistics for the season. 

New Mexico State is 62nd in the country in points per possession allowed.  They nearly won at Kansas, and only allowed 63 points in that game. They also held a high scoring Washington State team to 63 points. 

New Mexico State is excellent at dictating tempo. The Aggies are 319th in overall tempo so far this year (out of 353 teams). 

Drake hasn't played many defenses as good as New Mexico State. Drake is a young team that should be inconsistent on offense this year.

This game is played on a neutral floor which is a positive for the under. Neither team is accustomed to the setting and the sight lines.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Without Dean Wade, this Kansas State offense isn't the same. Wade was easily the team's highest rated offensive player before he went down with an injury. Bruce Weber's team is likely to slow the pace down and win with their defense as they play without their star.

Vanderbilt is much better on defense this year, but their offense isn't nearly as strong without Garland their star guard. The Commodores shouldn't be as efficient on offense against this Kansas State 2nd ranked defense in the country.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these teams have been pushing the pace to the extreme of late. I would expect nothing less here. Tenn Martin has one of the worst defenses in the country. They rank 341st out of 353 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Fresno State is playing a new style under coach Justin Hutson and they push the pace to the finish. I expect Fresno State to get a lot of easy points in transition and also get a lot of put back attempts with Tenn Martin's poor defensive rebounding.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Dons rank 16th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 24th in points per possession allowed. Stanford is 55th in points per possession allowed. 

San Francisco is a decent 91st in points per possession on offense. Stanford is 185th. 

These are two teams who are quite a bit better on defense than offense. The line has been pushed up some here, and I see value.

Stanford relies on trips to the line to score, but San Francisco ranks 6th in the country at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brown Bears are much better defensively this year. That was a point of emphasis in the offseason, and so far it has worked out nicely for Brown. They are 19th in the country in effective field goal percentage. They have struggled on offense though. They are 223rd in effective field goal percentage offense. Turnovers have been a big problem for the offense.

Marist has had a big change in style with new coach John Dunne taking over. Dunne has been known for his slow paced teams at St. Peter's for many years. Marist has become that very slow paced team that plays solid defense and holds teams to one shot. 

Brown has struggled to score on the road this year. They have scored 60 points or less in 3 of their 5 road games this season. 

Marist should slow the pace down here, and neither team is efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils are fantastic offensively, but this is a neutral site game at Madison Square Garden. They are up against a Texas Tech team that is easily first in the nation in points per possession allowed. 

Texas Tech should know not to get into a track meet with Duke. Look for Chris Beard's team to do its very best to turn this into a rock fight. The Red Raiders defense has been tremendous all year. They haven't allowed more than 67 points in a game thus far. They will likely allow more than that here, but I like seeing that type of defensive consistency.

Madison Square Garden is the best under venue in college basketball. It's a tough shooting backdrop and that is a clear bonus here.

In games where Duke is favored by 10 or more on a home or neutral court and the total is 140 or higher, the under is 9-1 in their last 10 games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are great at controlling tempo. They are 337th out of 353 in the country in average possession length on offense. Where is James Madison? They are 307th. There shouldn't be anyone pushing the pace here. 

Fordham has seen 5 of its last 8 games stay under this total in regulation. James Madison has had 4 of its last 5 stay under this number in regulation. 

These teams rank 239th and 289th in points per possession, so they aren't efficient at all. Both defenses have the upper hand and both offenses turn it over a lot.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Auburn Tigers like to push the pace under Bruce Pearl. Pearl has always been a guy who loves to encourage his teams to get out in transition and look to get some easy buckets. 

Auburn has faced only one team all year in the top 170 in the country in overall tempo. NC State ranks 14th. The Wolfpack aren't going to be afraid to run with Auburn. NC State has scored 80 points or more in 8 of their 10 games so far this year. 

NC State's defensive weakness is transition defense. Auburn should know that coming into this game, and the Tigers will be pushing and trying to get to the basket or get to the line. 

Both of these teams rank in the top 11 in the country in offensive rebounding. Look for plenty of second chance opportunities. With a lot of offensive rebounds, there are usually a lot of fouls and free throws as well. Both of these teams have a history of getting in foul trouble.

An up and down game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mercer has played 8 Division One opponents this year. There are 353 D1 teams in the country. Six of the eight teams Mercer has played have ranked in the top 150 in terms of tempo. The Bears have definitely been playing a lot of teams who are forcing the pace. Florida ranks 341st in overall tempo.

The Gators have an elite defense. Florida is 6th in the nation in points per possession allowed at 0.906. Florida is great at forcing turnovers and Mercer struggles with turnovers on offense. I expect Mercer to have trouble scoring here.

Florida is very inconsistent on offense. The Gators rank 186th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. How low scoring have Florida's games been? Six of their nine games have finished with 125 points or less.

I like this to be a low scoring contest- and with the number getting bet up across the board, I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Xavier Musketeers have scored at least 68 points in 10 of their 11 games so far this year. They have scored 73 points or more in 9 of their 11 games. Xavier is first in the country in 2 point field goal percentage at over 60%. 

Missouri is a good defensive team, but they aren't elite. The Tigers rank 144th in effective field goal percentage defense. Missouri allowed 79 points to Temple and 82 points to Kansas State earlier this year.

Xavier's defense isn't very good. The Musketeers rank 219th in effective field goal percentage defense. Missouri takes a lot of shots from long range, and Xavier ranks 298th in the country at defending beyond the arc.

This number has been bet down too far for me to pass.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This line has moved too much. Arizona State wants to push the tempo of course, and Vanderbilt is playing quicker as well, but this total has gotten too high for me to pass on the under.

Vanderbilt is without star guard Darius Garland due to an injury, and he is the guy who pushed the pace and made this offense really go. Without him, I don't think Vanderbilt will play as fast, and they are unlikely to be as efficient. 

Vanderbilt is much better defensively than they were last year. The Commodores were 247th in effective field goal percentage allowed last year. They are 42nd in that same statistic this year. 

Arizona State was 18th in the nation in points per possession last year. They are 47th this year. The Sun Devils are still a good offense, but they aren't elite. The Sun Devils were 165th in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are 50th this season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Dana Altman has made it a key point to let his team know he wasn't happy with them taking bad shots early in the clock. The last two games they have taken a lot more time on offense, and it has worked out. Oregon is moving the ball more and slowing the tempo down a lot.

Oregon's defense is very underrated. The Ducks have a lot of length and they'll give Boise State's shooters a difficult time here.

Boise State doesn't have the offensive firepower they had a few years ago. The Broncos still work hard defensively.

I had this one pegged a few points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Neutral site unders early in the year has been a tremendous angle in the long run in college basketball. This is one of those. Both of these teams shoot a lot of long ranger jumpers, and those are the shots that are tougher to hit with difficult shooting backdrops. 

This game is at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. This place isn't designed for basketball, and this place has a really unique shooting backdrop. A quick image search on Google shows a very deep backdrop that is much different than the players are accustomed to.

Virginia Tech has been extremely efficient all year on offense. They are good offensively, but Washington's matchup zone makes it tough for the long range jumpers to fall. On the other side, Washington's offense hasn't been very efficient last year or this year.

Virginia Tech has slowed their tempo down significantly compared to a couple years ago.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Neutral site unders early in the year has been a tremendous angle in the long run in college basketball. This is one of those. Both of these teams shoot a lot of long ranger jumpers, and those are the shots that are tougher to hit with difficult shooting backdrops. 

This game is at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. This place isn't designed for basketball, and this place has a really unique shooting backdrop. A quick image search on Google shows a very deep backdrop that is much different than the players are accustomed to.

Penn State has played eight straight games that have finished under this total. Most of them have finished far under the number. NC State has been really efficient on offense this year, but Penn State's defensive will make them work hard. The Nittany Lions will work to slow the game down as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks got a message from Dana Altman before their last game. Quit taking bad shots early in the shot clock. They listened. Oregon slowed the tempo down in a big way in their win over Nebraska Omaha. Omaha prefers to play quick, but Oregon slowed that game down to a very slow 60 possession pace. Since that led to a nice win, I would expect them to slow it down again here.

Oregon has only played eight games, but they have played three games against teams in the top 12 in the nation in tempo. 

San Diego wants to play slowly. The Toreros aren't very efficient on offense. They haven't played a team in the top 40 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense this year. Where is Oregon? They sit at 15th. The Oregon Ducks throw a lot of different looks at teams on defense, and they should make it hard for San Diego to score here.

Both teams have been great at defending the 3 point line, which is a nice bonus here. I think this stays in the 130's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LSU Tigers are a good offensive team. There is no denying that. Maybe they'll shoot the ball really well and beat this under, but Houston has been great at imposing their will on the opposition this year.

Houston wants to play slowly and they want a grind it out low scoring game. This number has been pushed up since the opening line, and I have to grab it at this price. Houston has played six straight games that all finished at 138 points total or lower. The Cougars rank 351st out of 353 teams in the nation in tempo.

LSU isn't great on defense, but they are a lot better than they were last year. The Tigers are 142nd in effective field goal percentage defense. They were 265th last year. Their freshman class has some very good shot blockers, and LSU is stealing the ball at a much better rate this year. 

LSU has only played one very slow paced team this year (C of Charleston) and that was a very low scoring game.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The question about this Murray State team isn't whether they can defend. The Racers play an aggressive style of defense that really contests three-pointers well, and they force a lot of steals. Murray State's question this year is whether they can score enough. Murray State lost two very good offensive players in Stark and Miller. The Racers have looked good on offense so far this year, but who has it been against? Murray State has only played one team in the top 250 (out of 353) in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Southern Illinois  ranks 83rd in that metric. 

Southern Illinois is 279th in pace of play this year. Murray State is 197th. There's no reason to expect a fast-paced game here. Neither team has been very good at getting to the line. 

Southern Illinois relies heavily on the 3 point jumper. The Salukis are shooting 40.3% from deep, but Murray State ranks first in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense (20.7%). 

Both teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in taking care of the ball. Expect a lot of wasted trips on the offensive end due to turnovers, and that is a big plus for the under.

I had this game projected at 130 points.

Take the under.