Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have been an under machine. Merrimack's games have finished regulation on or below this number in ten straight games. The Warriors have only played one game that went above this posted total since the start of 2020. Merrimack's zone press that actually slows the game down and their strong 2-3 zone have really made it hard on opposing offenses. 

Merrimack is first in the NEC in defensive efficiency, and it isn't even close. Sacred Heart is their opponent tonight, and Sacred Heart is third in the conference in defensive efficiency. 

Merrimack is the slowest paced team in the league, and the Warriors should be able to control the tempo here. They did in the first game when they knocked off Sacred Heart 65-57.

There has been over money on Merrimack's last few games, and they have all gone under the total. The number has been pushed higher again here, and I will once again play the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Denver Pioneers are first in the Summit League in average possession length (quickest pace). The Oral Roberts Golden Eagles are 2nd in the Summit League in average possession length. Both of these teams will be looking to push the pace in this contest.

In the first meeting between these two teams earlier this year, the final was 86-77. I see a similar score as that one being a real possibility here. 

Oral Roberts has scored 80 points or more in 7 of their last 10 games. Denver has allowed 82 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The Pioneers are giving up a lot of second chance points.

This is a late season game that means little to these two teams. It would be surprising if it were anything but a fast paced game with both teams getting a lot of open looks.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Hampshire Wildcats are 314th in offensive efficiency (out of 353 teams in the country). Hartford is 323rd in offensive efficiency. These two teams both take a lot of three point jumpers, and they have both been bad from 3 point range this season. 

Hartford has been especially bad offensively on the road. Hartford has played 6 of their last 8 games under this posted total.

New Hampshire has seen 9 of their last 12 games stay under this total in regulation. 

In the last four meetings between these two teams, the highest scoring game was 121 total points. They have a good history of slowing each other down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats started the season off playing quickly. Villanova ranked in the top 100 in average possession length in the first eight games of the year. That has changed in a big way as the season has moved along. Villanova now ranks 276th in average possession length and 285th in overall tempo (out of 353 teams in the country).

Against this total, the under is 12-3 in Villanova's last 15 games in regulation overall. DePaul and Villanova played a game that was only 67-67 at the end of regulation the first time around.

DePaul was good offensively and atrocious defensively last year. The opposite is true this season. The Blue Demons are 52nd in the nation in defensive efficiency this year. On offense, they are 206th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Blue Demons turn the ball over far too much as well.

Villanova very rarely fouls and they don't give up many second chance scoring opportunities. The Wildcats haven't shot the ball quite as well on the road this year as they have at home.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears defense ranks third in the nation in defensive efficiency. Baylor has controlled games with their strong defense. 

Oklahoma is 212th in effective field goal percentage offense, so the Sooners aren't a very good shooting team. The Sooners do try to speed the game up a bit, but they are playing slower than they did a year ago.

Baylor is 290th in average possession length on offense. The Bears have Macio Teague banged up as well. He might play here, but he isn't 100 percent.

Oklahoma is great at defending without fouling (3rd best in the country), and Baylor is far better than average in that category as well (93rd in the nation). 

The first game between these two went to 118 points and was played very slowly. This game is likely a bit higher scoring, but this totals number is too high in my opinion.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers are using 20.1 seconds of the shot clock on average in conference play. They rank among the 10 slowest paced teams in the nation. Wagner has shown they want to play slowly this year when they aren't down big. Wagner's tempo at home has been drastically slower than on the road, which is largely because they have been in the game and can keep the pace slower.

The last three games between these two teams have finished at 126 points, 114 points, and 113 points. I don't see a reason to expect a higher scoring game here. Both teams want to play slowly, and neither team is particularly good on offense. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors are tremendous at slowing the pace of their game with their full court press and zone defense. Merrimack shifts around in their press hoping to slow their opponent and waiting for a turnover if the opposition tries to get down the court too quickly with the long pass.

Merrimack was 14/24 from 3 point range in their last game, and that game still went under the total by a point. Merrimack shoots the ball very poorly on average, and they shoot the ball much worse on the road. 

In the first game between these two both teams shot the ball much better than they normally do. The pace was played at Merrimack's liking, but the shooting numbers sent it over the total. 

Merrimack's highest scoring road game in the conference is 127 total points (regulation). Five of their seven road contests in conference have finished at 116 points or less.

Bryant is an above average defense and they are likely to waste quite a few possessions on offense with turnovers. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first time these two teams met this season, the score was 93-93 at the end of regulation. I don't expect a score that high again but I do think this total is set too low.

Cal State Fullerton and Cal Poly are first and second in the Big West in free throw attempts. Both teams had a lot of trips to the line in the first meeting. Both of these teams have gradually sped up their pace of play in the last few weeks. If we looked only at recent contests this number should be in the 140's.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* Merrimack plays a strong zone defense and is great at forcing their style of play on opponents. The Warriors have found a way to make nearly every game very low scoring.

Wagner is bad offensively and even worse against zone defenses. They rank in the fifth percentile in the country in offensive efficiency against the zone. Wagner is also happy to play at a slow just like Merrimack.

Both teams are prone to long scoring droughts. Look for a low scoring contest here.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* North Texas is first in Conference USA in offensive efficiency. The Mean Green have a lot of very good shooters on the outside. They have three high volume shooters who are above 39% from long range. The Mean Green are averaging 1.153 points per possession inside Conference USA play. 

Charlotte's defense is decent, but they have played a very weak slate of offenses, and I think their numbers will regress toward the mean. 

Both North Texas and Charlotte are 9-3 to the over in Conference USA action at this posted total. Though both teams do play slowly, they have been good enough on offense to get over this low total most of the time. 

Charlotte does a good job getting to the line and North Texas fouls about as much as anyone in the league.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles take on the Villanova Wildcats on Wednesday night. The Big East has been a very strong conference this year, and it has led to great competition. This should be another game played at a very high level. 

The last three meetings between Marquette and Villanova have stayed well below this posted total. They have finished at 131 points, 128 points, and 131 points. 

Villanova has slowed their tempo down a lot in Big East play this year. The Wildcats have only seen one total in their last 13 games go over this total in regulation. Villanova's defense ranks second in the Big East. The Wildcats have been good at slowing the pace down.

Marquette typically relies heavily on getting to the free throw line on offense, but Villanova is arguably the best team in the conference at defending without fouling.

The Villanova offense is good, but they aren't nearly as dominant as they have been in previous seasons.

This number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Pine Bluff Golden Lions are dead last in the country in offensive efficiency, and it isn't even close. Pine Bluff is averaging a miserable 0.797 points per possession on the year. Pine Bluff has played 20 games against Division I teams this year. They have scored 50 points or less in 15 of those 20 games! This is a horrendous team on offense. Not surprisingly, Pine Bluff is trying to slow games down. They are 9th out of 10 in the SWAC in tempo.

Alabama A&M is 10th in the SWAC in tempo. They beat Pine Bluff 59-49 earlier this year at home. That game had only 61 possessions. This game should be played at a similar pace. 

Barring much higher than average shooting numbers or overtime, I see this one staying under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have been an under machine. Merrimack has seen 10 of their last 11 games finish at 129 points or less. The Warriors set up a full court zone press to try to slow the pace of the game. If they get a steal in the backcourt they'll try to score quickly. Otherwise, they set up a very methodical halfcourt offense. Merrimack has shot the ball very poorly all season long.

Long Island wants to push the pace. Still, several teams have shown the ability to slow the game down against LIU. Mount St. Mary's has done it twice. Merrimack did it in their first meeting as well.

I think Merrimack's zone will slow this game down as well. This is a little too high of a number given Merrimack's consistency at getting very low scoring contests.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The NC A&T Aggies and Bethune-Cookman Wildcats are first and second in the MEAC in tempo. These two teams met a few weeks ago. The final score in that game was 98-95. There were a whopping 89 possessions in that game. 

This one will be played very quickly as well. Both teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in defending without fouling. Both of these teams are aggressive at getting to the line. 

I had this one in the upper 150's. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Coppin State is 346th out of 353 teams in the nation in offensive efficiency. Coppin State plays quickly, but against good defenses they have struggled in a big way to score. 

North Carolina Central is the best defense in the MEAC, and it isn't even close. NC Central is allowing only 0.845 points per possession in league play. NC Central has only had one league game go over this total so far this year. 

Last year when these two teams met the final was 124 points. Both teams are worse on offense and better on defense than a year ago.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank first in Conference USA in offensive efficiency. The North Texas offense sometimes struggles against teams that can force a lot of turnovers but that is not UAB. North Texas has a lot of offensive advantages all over the floor in this one. 

The UAB Blazers shooting numbers have been way down this year. Their 3 point percentages should regress to the mean between now and the end of the season. While North Texas is elite on offense, their defense has been inconsistent. 

I don't expect this to be a high scoring game, but this posted total is too low for me to pass up a play on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Portland Pilots have been playing faster and faster by the game of late. Portland's defense is laying down and giving up huge numbers to everyone. 
BYU is a prolific offense this year. BYU ranks 5th in the country in points per possession this year. They have a bunch of great outside shooters, and Portland is terrible at defending beyond the arc. BYU won 96-70 when these two played a few weeks ago. The Cougars should score at a very high clip again.
Portland has given up 77 points or more in each of their last five games. None of the teams they played in those games are as good offensively as BYU. 
The pace of the game should allow Portland to score enough here as well.
Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Alabama Lions have been playing very quickly. North Alabama is first in the Atlantic Sun in tempo. They have seen 9 of their last 11 games finish at 70 possessions or quicker. Two of their last three games were 78 and 77 possessions.

Lipscomb has been creating a lot of quick scoring chances with their defense. North Alabama turns it over often. I think Lipscomb should get in transition quite a bit in this one. In fact, both teams are good at creating steals in the open floor.

The first game between these two went to 151 points. I don't project quite that many here, but this number is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers rank 348th out of 353 teams in the country in terms of tempo. It is no secret that this Wisconsin team is great at forcing their style of play. They want the game played completely in the halfcourt.

Minnesota is 297th in tempo this year. In past years, the Golden Gophers liked to push the ball more, but they have slowed down significantly this year. Having a great defensive big man in Oturu has also helped Minnesota's defensive efficiency a great deal. They were 155th in effective field goal percentage defense two years ago. They were 121st last year. They have jumped all the way up to #48 in the country this year.

Neither of these teams get to the line much at all. Both teams have been excellent at defending without fouling as well. These two teams have also done a good job at not giving up quick second chance scoring opportunities off of offensive rebounds.

This number has been bet up to where there is good value on the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers are excellent at forcing their opponent to play at Purdue's preferred tempo. They have played 11 Big 10 conference games so far this season, and only 1 of those games has gone over this posted total in regulation. In fact, 9 of their 11 Big 10 games have been 128 total points or lower in regulation. 

Iowa does play quicker than many of their Big 10 opponents, but the Hawkeyes offense is slightly less dangerous without Jordan Bohannon. Iowa's defense is improved from a couple seasons ago as well. 

Look for a fairly slow pace in this one, and I believe this total is a few points too high. 

Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* This is an ultra early start time. The NBA games are earlier on Sunday thanks to the Super Bowl on Sunday evening. Here we have a Denver team playing a game at 10:30 am on their body clock. Detroit is playing one of their earliest games of the season as well.

The two teams in this game have been playing fairly slowly. In their last ten games, the Pistons rank 19th out of 30 in the NBA in pace of play. The Nuggets rank 24th in pace of play during that time. Both teams also rate slightly better than average on defense in the last ten and slightly below average on offense in the last ten.

A good spot for an under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* In the last couple years, Tennessee State has preferred to play at a  quick tempo. They should get their wish against Tennessee Tech on Saturday night. Tennessee Tech stalled in non-conference action against bigger named schools, but they have picked up the pace quite a bit in OVC play.

Neither of these teams are very good on the defensive end. Unless both teams are missing a lot of open looks, I would expect this one to get past the posted total. 

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over*

North Carolina A&T has decided to drastically increase their pace of play in conference action. Their games are still being lined too low by the oddsmakers. In their last contest, the under cashed solely because both teams shot a woeful 33% from the free throw line.

Norfolk State has one of the most efficient offenses in the MEAC. I don’t see North Carolina A&T being able to slow them down here. 

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners rank 18th in the country in overall tempo. UTSA has played seven straight games that have gone over this number. The Roadrunners have been great at forcing the game to be played at their pace. Additionally, UTSA ranked 119th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. This year they are all the way down at 318th in that same ranking. Their defense has gotten much worse.

UAB is shooting only 26.5% from 3 point range in CUSA play so far this year. The Blazers are due to experience positive regression from long range. They are up against a weak defense in this one. The Blazers haven’t faced many teams as quick as UTSA, and that has helped keep this total down.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats have a top two or three defense in the SEC. Kentucky is going to give a lot of teams trouble with their length and athleticism.

Vanderbilt is without their star outside shooter Aaron Nesmith. They haven't scored more than 64 points in any game he has missed this year. Their shooting numbers have dropped significantly. In addition, they are slowing the pace down.

Kentucky should have a nice lead here and slow the pace down themselves.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats are playing more than 1.5 seconds per possession slower in conference play compared to non-conference action. Villanova has been winning a lot of low scoring contests in the Big East. They have played 8 Big East games, and all 8 of them have been 146 points or less in regulation. Seven of the eight have been 137 points or less.

St. John's definitely pushes the pace, and they'll do their best to force the issue here. It is important to note though that their offense has been very weak. St. John's is 317th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. Five of their eight Big East games have finished with 145 points or less. 

Villanova doesn't turn the ball over often, which should limit St. John's opportunities in transition. I think this number is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Carolina A&T Aggies have turned the tempo up in a big way in conference play. North Carolina A&T is using less than 14 seconds of the shot clock on an average possession in conference play. 

Delaware State is 5th in the nation in overall tempo. They aren't about to try to slow the game down. They are averaging 77 possessions per game in conference action. North Carolina A&T is averaging an insane 81.9 possessions per game in conference play.

These two teams just played a 98-77 game two weeks ago. 

Both teams are among the 30 worst teams in the country at defending without fouling.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins have definitely slowed their pace of play down a lot in Pac 12 action. Mick Cronin's team doesn't have enough firepower to try to win shootouts. Cronin is slowly getting this team to play better defense as well.

Oregon has consistently been a good under team in conference action. That is especially true when they are a home favorite. The under is 28-13 in the Ducks last 41 conference games as a home favorite of 8 points or more. When you move that to a home favorite of 11 points or more the under is 16-4.

The Ducks have had 66 points or less at the end of regulation in 4 of their last 5 games. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies zone defense is very difficult to deal with. This matchup zone is going to make just about anyone very uncomfortable. 

Without Green, the Washington offense which wasn't very good to begin with is even worse. The Huskies have slowed their tempo down a lot without Green as well.

Colorado ranks top 20 in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Buffaloes are likely to make Washington work very hard for their shots here. 

Look for a low scoring game with solid defense from both sides.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Summit League has been great to over bettors the last couple seasons. There is very little defense played here by anyone. The over is hitting at slightly better than 65% on totals in the Summit League at 153 or lower since 2017. 

Oral Roberts and South Dakota have both already been involved in a bunch of high scoring games this year. Both teams are more comfortable pushing the tempo than they are slowing things down. 

Last year's games between these two were 151 and 158 points. Both teams are significantly better on offense than they were last season.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The North Carolina A&T Aggies and Bethune Cookman Wildcats are set for a track meet on Saturday. I'm confident this will be a very fast paced game. North Carolina A&T is playing 3 seconds per possession faster in the conference than in non-conference action. Bethune Cookman is 19th out of 153 in tempo themselves. This could be a 79 or 80 possessions type of game.

I don't think oddsmakers have caught up with NC A&T's recent pace increase yet. I make this game in the mid 150's.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Greensboro Spartans have a very underrated full court press. They are consistently forcing their opponent to turn it over at a clip of 25% or higher of their overall possessions in the game. The Spartans are great at then turning those steals into quick points. Samford is very sloppy with the basketball and they love to play quickly. 

The meetings between these two teams in the last couple years have been very high scoring. Samford is good at getting to the line, and they should get to the line at a pretty good clip here. Samford's halfcourt defense is absolutely atrocious. UNC Greensboro should get a bunch of easy looks near the hoop.

Look for a quick tempo here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Riverside Highlanders decided in the offseason to put the focus on defense. David Patrick's team had always played slowly and looked to win low scoring games, but they were never as good defensively as they are this season. The Highlanders rank 121st in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Last year, they ranked 326th. 

Cal Poly has a new coach in John Smith. He also wanted his team to work on defense since they were dreadful on defense last season. Cal Poly has been good in the conference so far on defense. In fact, they rank second in Big West action in defensive efficiency. 

Cal Poly is 256th out of 353 in the country in average possession length, so they play slowly. UC Riverside is 348th out of 353, so they are stalling in a big way.

These two teams rank 296th and 340th in offensive efficiency. With a very slow pace and two improved defenses, I expect a very low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles couldn't score in the non-conference schedule. They played very slowly because they were up against teams that just had too much talent for them. The Golden Eagles are now in OVC play and playing against much weaker teams. They have decided to pick up their pace a lot. 

Tennessee Tech has seen 9 of their last 10 games go over this posted total. The lone game that stayed under this number was 133 points. 

Morehead State is due for some positive regression on offense. The Eagles shot 33.6% from 3 point range a year ago, but they are only at 27.7% this season. Morehead State has gone over this total in 8 of their last 9 games. 

These teams played earlier this month and the final was 83-72. Neither team much defense at all, and this is a low total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes have dramatic splits against man defense compared to zone defense. The Utes are far better against man defense. Utah scored only 53 and 45 points in their two games against Washington last year. Utah easily ranked first in the Pac 12 in offensive efficiency a year ago, but they couldn't solve the Washington matchup zone. Utah is weaker offensively this year, and they are slightly better on defense than a year ago.

Washington has slowed their pace down a lot without Quade Green running the show in their last few games. In fact, Washington's games have finished with 112, 116, 119, 120, and 125 points in the five games without Green in the backcourt. Two of those games went into overtime, and they were still that low scoring. 

Washington's defense is excellent, but their offense has been a mess much of the year. Green was a facilitator for this team, but he is out of the lineup now. 

I made this number several points lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Hampton Pirates offense struggled earlier this year. Why? They were without superstar Jermaine Marrow. With Marrow back in the fold, this Hampton team is pushing the pace much more and they have a lot of scoring capability. Hampton's games have finished with 177 points, 156 points, 163 points, 211 points, and 174 points since Marrow has been back on the floor. 

Campbell is playing a couple possessions per game faster in conference action than they did in non-conference play. The Fighting Camels main problem on offense is turnovers, but Hampton doesn't force many of those.

Hampton ranks 346th out of 353 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. The Pirates have allowed at least 80 points in each of their last five games. 

Campbell and Hampton both rank among the worst teams in the country in fouls committed on defense. A quick pace and plenty of free throws here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers are 1st in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Memphis has been winning on the strength of their defense. The Tigers are second in the nation in block percentage. They are first in 2 point field goal percentage defense. Tulsa is a team that relies on shooting it from inside because they don't have many outside threats. 

Tulsa wants to slow the pace down. They are using a full second more of the shot clock on average in conference play than they did in non-conference action. The Golden Hurricane are much better on defense than offense as well. They are 65th in effective field goal percentage defense and only 143rd in effective field goal percentage offense. Tulsa has played five AAC games so far this year. All five of those games finished at 124 points or less.

This number has been pushed up to a point where I have to bet the under. Memphis has played a bit slower of late, and the Tigers offense has turned it over on 24.2% of their possessions in conference.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams have been awful on offense all year. They lost Chuba Ohams, one of their top two scoring options to a season ending injury. Fordham has also been without Antwon Portley and Erten Gazi the last few games. Those two are both questionable today, and they would at the very least be less than 100 percent.

Fordham has played eight games under this total, and many of those were with their top scoring options. The Rams can create a lot of turnovers and play above average defense. They are a bottom ten offense in the entire nation though. Fordham ranks in the bottom ten in the nation in tempo.

George Washington is a bottom 50 tempo team. They are coached by Jamion Christian, who coached Siena last year and they finished last year as the second slowest paced team in the country.

A very slow pace and a lot of wasted possessions and bad shots.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers are coming off a poor effort against Maryland. I think we'll see a much better effort defensively from Purdue here. The Boilermakers slow the game down more than any other team in the Big Ten outside of Wisconsin. Purdue is 346th out of 353 teams in the country in overall tempo.

Purdue's offense hasn't been good at all in the Big Ten. In fact, in seven Big Ten games the Boilermakers have only scored more than 0.97 points per possession in two of those contests. Purdue's defense ranks sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency, so they are very good on that end of the floor.

Illinois is a completely different team than they were last year. The Fighting Illini are the third slowest paced team in the Big Ten in terms of average possession length behind only Wisconsin and Purdue. This Illini team is much better on defense than they have been the last couple years. It certainly helps that they have Kofi Cockburn on the inside with his 7'0 and 290 lb frame scaring people away from driving the lane. Brad Underwood's team has also switched to a less aggressive defense, and that has led to far fewer fouls on Illinois. 

Both Purdue and Illinois rank in the top 20 in the nation in free throws attempts allowed per 100 trips up the court for opponents. 

A slow pace here, and the defenses are better than the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Carolina A&T Aggies have really ramped up their pace in conference. Their average game in the conference has been 81 possessions, which is a blistering fast pace. This one likely won't be that fast, but NC A&T and Morgan State rank 1st and 2nd in the conference in free throw attempts. What about fouling on defense? NC A&T is 318th in defending without fouling. Morgan State is dead last. The Bears have allowed more free throws than anyone else.

A total set this low with two teams who play quickly and both get to the line and foul a lot is pretty rare.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets have had some turmoil of late. Houston doesn't look like the team many expected them to be. Opponents have started double teaming James Harden in certain situations and forcing someone else to beat them. It has been working pretty well. Houston ranks 20th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. 

Oklahoma City is slightly slower than the average team in the NBA in tempo. The Thunder have been inconsistent defensively, but they have done a nice job against the Rockets thus far in their meetings. 

These two teams don't like each other for multiple reasons. There is a lot of familiarity here, and I see this being a game where both teams place a high level of importance on this specific contest. 

This is an earlier start than normal, especially for two teams from the Western Conference due to  the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday in the United States. These early starts are on the whole are a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The BYU Cougars have changed gears on offense in the last few contests. BYU is playing extremely fast in their last few games. Yoeli Childs' absence might have made this team prefer to pick up the pace. BYU has all kinds of shooting options on the floor at all times, and even against a good defense in Gonzaga, I would expect BYU to be pretty efficient on offense.

This Gonzaga team is elite on offense and good, but not great on defense. Gonzaga can make BYU's defense pay for their lack of a good frontcourt defender now. The Zags take good care of the basketball, and they love to get out in transition.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tennessee and Vanderbilt are both without their best offensive player due to an injury. Lamonte Turner is out for Tennessee and Aaron Nesmith is out for Vanderbilt. 

Turner was the heart and soul of the Vols offense. Without him, the Vols have been inefficient. Tennessee has scored 0.95 points per possession or less in three of their five games without him. They haven't had a single game where they averaged more than 1.05 points per possession without Turner.

Nesmith was shooting 52% from the 3 point line this year, and he was clearly Vanderbilt's best scoring option. In their first two games without him, Vanderbilt has scored 0.79 and 0.79 points per possession. The Commodores have looked lost on offense. 

This is a rivalry game and there should be plenty of effort on defense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have a great long term totals system going in home MAC games. Western Michigan has played significantly faster paced games at home in conference action than on the road. The Broncos have been an over machine in the MAC at home. How good has the system been? The over is 33-10 in the last 43 home games for Western Michigan with a total of 156 or lower. These games haven't been squeaking over the total either, they have been sailing way past the number.

Western Michigan is aggressive and has been able to make a living at the line on their home floor. The Broncos defense is terrible though, and Kent State has a big edge on the offensive end.

The pace here should be quick the whole way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles have sped up their pace of play in a big way in the last few weeks. This team clearly was slowing things down in the non-conference action against much better teams. Now, they are playing against far weaker teams in the Ohio Valley Conference. They have a chance in these games, and therefore they have decided to get things moving pace wise.

Eastern Illinois is playing quicker than a year ago as well. The Tenn Tech defense has been terrible all season. Eastern Illinois should get some easy looks near the basket against a Tech frontcourt that is undersized and not good defensively.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars have dramatically slowed their pace down in recent weeks. They are last in the Sun Belt in overall tempo. South Alabama has played six straight games to a total of 135 or lower. 

Georgia Southern is a fast paced team, but they aren't particularly efficient on offense. 

This is a game that I see being tightly contested. Neither team is very good at getting second chance points and this is a high total for the tempo that I expect this game will be played at.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Carolina A&T Aggies have dramatically sped up their pace of play in conference. They were using 18 seconds of the shot clock on average in non-conference play, but they are using only 14.0 seconds of the shot clock in conference action. This team clearly wants to run.

They'll be given a chance to play very fast here. Coppin State always likes to play quickly. The Eagles are the 9th fastest paced team in the country. 

Both teams foul a lot and the line here would suggest that overtime is at least a possibility. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles are playing a lot faster than they did a year ago. Eastern Michigan averaged 62.9 possessions per game last year. So far this season, they are averaging 69.0 possessions per game. They have been the second fastest paced team in the MAC this year.

Ohio has been far better against zone defense as compared to man defense so far this year. They rank in the top 15 percent of teams in terms of efficiency scoring against a zone defense. Eastern Michigan plays zone almost all the time.

Eastern Michigan is good at getting to the line a lot, and Ohio is good at getting second chance opportunities.

The number here is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers have been a tremendous under team this year. Purdue hasn't had a Big Ten game that has topped 126 points in regulation so far this season. Purdue is elite on defense, and only mediocre on the offensive end.

Maryland's offense has really struggled of late. The Terrapins tempo which was quick earlier this year has slowed down a lot and they are settling for too many contested long range jumpers. 

Purdue is 6th in defensive efficiency in the nation. Maryland is 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Two great defenses and teams who are comfortable playing at a slow pace. If the two teams don't shoot the ball great here, I like our chances with the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies have only had three games all year go over this total. Buzz Williams has this team buying in on the defensive end of the floor. They are contesting shots very well.

South Carolina always plays very hard for Frank Martin. The Gamecocks are limited on offense, but they are an excellent team defense. 

Texas A&M is 326th in effective field goal percentage offense. South Carolina is 284th in that same statistic. These are not good offenses at all.

A sloppy game where both teams find it difficult to get open looks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Miami has been tremendous on offense in their last five games. How good? The Heat are averaging 1.207 points per possession in their last five contests. That is third best in the NBA in that period. The defense has been bad though. Miami is allowing 1.162 points per possession, which is third worst in the NBA in the last five games. 

Oklahoma City has been middle of the road in both of these areas of late, but the Thunder have picked up the tempo in the last few games. It is also important to note that Oklahoma City has had much higher scoring games at home this year. Their offense is averaging just 1.059 points per possession on the road, but they are averaging 1.117 points per possession. Their defense has been slightly worse at home as well.

With the efficient Miami offense and Oklahoma City scoring efficiently in transition and at home, I think this number is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The SIU Edwardsville Cougars are 336th in the nation in defensive efficiency (out of 353 teams). Tennessee Tech is 316th in defensive efficiency. These are two really bad defenses and a very low posted total with those things being considered.

Tennessee Tech was stalling on offense in non-conference action, but they have picked up their pace dramatically in conference play.

Both of these teams rank among the worst 10 teams in the country in second chance conversion percentage allowed. They are giving up a lot of second chance buckets. Bad defense plus second chance opportunities makes me look toward the over.

With the line move down today I'm backing the over at this price. Edwardsville has had their last five games go over this total. Four of those five games finished at 150 points or higher. Tech has had six of their last seven games go over this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Hampton Pirates season long offensive numbers don't look great. They are good, but not great. Those are misleading though, since star scorer Jermaine Marrow has missed half of Hampton's games this year. Hampton is a completely different offense with Marrow on the floor. He is one of the very best scorers in the country.

Hampton is playing the fastest of any team in the Big South. They are using only 15.3 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. Winthrop is playing at the second fastest pace of any team in the conference. They are using only 15.8 seconds of the shot clock on average. Both games between these two were track meets last year, and I don't see any reason to expect anything other than a very fast pace for this one.

Hampton is 10th in the nation in FT/FGA, and the single biggest weakness of the Winthrop defense is they put their opponent on the line far too often. 

Winthrop's offense has been rolling of late. They have scored 85 points or more in four of their last six games. They have seen 5 of their last 6 games finish with at least 158 points.

Hampton's last three games (since Marrow came back from injury) have finished at 177, 156, and 163 points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Delaware Blue Hens aren't great defensively, but they are far better than they were a year ago on this end of the floor. Delaware was 277th in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are 142nd this year. 

Delaware prefers to play at a slow pace. They have been forced into some quicker games in the CAA so far, but they play a William & Mary team tonight that is playing the slowest of anyone in the league in conference action. 

William & Mary was 270th in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are all the way up to 106th this year.

Both teams are good on offense, and it is possible that they shoot lights out and beat this number, but at the pace I project (66 possessions), it would take both teams averaging more than 1.1 points per possession and that is pretty steep.

Take the under. 

Army/Holy Cross under 143

*3 Star Play Under* The Holy Cross Crusaders had to change the way they play. Their new coach wanted to push the pace, but they just don't have enough quickness or talent on the roster yet. In the last few games, Holy Cross has dramatically slowed their pace of play down. Compared to early in the year, Holy Cross is using more than 3 seconds more per possession before they put up a shot. 

Army is also playing 1.5 seconds per possession slower than they were in the non-conference schedule. 

This total is a few points high based on the recent tempo trends alone, but I see a couple other reasons to like this one.

Army is so inefficient on offense, but they really get after it on defense. Holy Cross has been very inconsistent on defense this year.

Neither team gets to the line much at all, which is clearly a plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Tigers defense was torched by Northern Iowa in their last game. Northern Iowa appears to be one of the best (if not the best) offense in the MVC. Bradley isn't that efficient on offense, especially without Elijah Childs.

Missouri State is tremendous at slowing the game down. The Bears use nearly 21 seconds of the shot clock on average, which is among the slowest teams in the country. They'll be doing that again here.

Bradley is a solid team defensively, and Childs is a bigger loss on the offensive end than the defensive end.

I considered this game last night, but waited for a line move up. It moved up and is now easily above my number of 125 for this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are absolutely awful on offense. Fordham has scored 44, 60, and 46 points in their last three games. Fordham ranks 342nd out of 353 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. They have played a ton of weak defenses, and still haven't been able to score much at all.

Fordham is now without Chuba Ohams for the rest of the year due to an injury. Antwon Portley and Erten Gazi are both questionable for this game with injuries. This is three of their top four scorers. They couldn't score with this guys, and without it gets even uglier. 

Duquesne is a good defensive team. The Dukes are 56th in defensive efficiency and 51st in effective field goal percentage defense. The Dukes have slowed their pace of play quite a bit from a year ago. 

Fordham plays at the slowest pace of any team in the Atlantic 10. I see this one staying very low scoring primarily because Fordham won't put up many.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates are playing excellent defense right now. Seton Hall has an elite defender in McKnight. He is able to guard the best perimeter man from the other team and make things very difficult on them.           

Butler ranks 344th out of 353 in the nation in average possession length. The Bulldogs rank 5th in defensive efficiency and 4th in effective field goal percentage defense. Butler will slow this game down.

Five of Butler's last six games have finished at 128 or lower. Seton Hall has improved defensively a great deal since a year ago.

With the big line move up- I have to take the under here.

Take the under.                                   

*4 Star Play Under* A very rare 11 am eastern start time during the week in mid January. This is far from the normal in college basketball. In these spots I always initially lean to the under. These spots have shown to be positive for the under in past seasons. College students aren't accustomed to this, and that can throw off the rhythm of the game.

Colgate is probably the best team in the Patriot League this year. Lafayette is a quality team as well. Both of these do two things very well on defense. They don't foul. They also don't give many second chance opportunities. 

Colgate and Lafayette will put up a lot of 3's in this one. If they get red hot then this under will lose, but the start time is helpful and both of these defenses have been far above average in 3 point defense. 

Neither team likes to play very fast to begin with, and this is a big game for both teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs play a similar style of basketball. Both prefer to play at a slow pace. They are both unable to play quickly without turning the ball over too often. Even in the halfcourt, both of these teams are turning the ball over at very high rates. They must shoot a very high percentage to score efficiently or grab offensive boards and get second chances. 

These teams met late last year and the final was 68-49. That game was played to a very slow pace of just 58 possessions. 

Missouri just played a high scoring game against Florida, and that has adjusted this total upward too much. Even after that game, 13 of Missouri's 15 games have gone below this posted total. Mississippi State has played 5 games that have finished at 128 points or lower, so they are very capable of playing in low scoring games too.

I had this one lined at 127, so I see a good amount of value in this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies don't have enough offensive weapons to win high scoring games this year. Buzz Williams still can get his team to guard though, and he has the Aggies slowing the game down and competing very hard on the defensive end. They have been able to keep games extremely low scoring on a very consistent basis. How low? The Aggies have had 13 straight games finish at 129 points or lower. 

LSU was playing quickly in the non-conference slate, but the Tigers are using 2.3 seconds per possession more of the shot clock in SEC action thus far. The Tigers have had a couple very low scoring games in their last four contests. 

Both meetings last year between these two teams stayed under this number, and both of these teams are clearly better on defense than they were a year ago.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors have been badly banged up. They are getting close to getting healthy, but from the sounds of coach Nick Nurse they aren't likely to have Pascal Siakim and Marc Gasol for this one. He said both of those guys should be back in the next week, but followed that up by saying that them playing today is probably a bit too ambitious. I'll take him at his word.

The Raptors are playing much slower while they are without Van Vleet, Siakim, and Gasol. They don't have enough firepower now to be pushing the pace. Toronto is still great on defense though. In Toronto's last eight games, they are 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are also 28th out of 30 teams in pace of play. 

The Spurs have put up some huge numbers offensively of late, but some of those have come against some really bad defenses. 

This officiating crew is one of the best under crews in the business. Brian Forte is the crew chief has had 54.8% of his games in his career stay under the total. Each of the refs have seen at least 52% of their games stay under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Weber State Wildcats were adamant in the preseason that they wanted to slow down their pace significantly. Weber State is 292nd out of 353 in average possession length, so they have been playing pretty slow. Here, they go up against a Sacramento State team that has used up 20.7 seconds of the shot clock on average in conference play. The Hornets are among the very slowest teams in the country.

Sacramento State has only had 3 games all year above this total and two of them finished at 121 points. The Hornets are 12th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams do a good job defending without fouling which is certainly important with a number this low.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

Tennessee Tech has clearly sped up their pace of play in the last five or six games. The oddsmakers haven't quite been able to catch up to their style change. 

Murray State is great in transition on offense and Tennessee Tech struggles defending in transition. The Racers should get a lot of easy ones here. With a total this low and Murray State likely to put up a number at least in the upper 70's, I'll take the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

UC Riverside is a great under team. UC Riverside wants to control the tempo and play about as slow as anyone in the nation. As long as they aren't down big, a game they are in is almost always going to be played at an extremely slow pace. They are favored here and are playing a Fullerton team who is much better on defense than offense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

The Hampton Pirates got their superstar back in Jermaine Marrow. He is one of the best scorers in the nation. With him, Hampton has a guy that no one in the league can consistently stop. Hampton plays at the fastest pace in the conference as well.

The Pirates struggle defending the 3 point shot and Longwood has been very good from 3 in the past couple years (they put up a lot of 3's too). 

The meetings between these teams last year were extremely high scoring. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders are always excellent defensively under Chris Beard. They are 12th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. The Red Raiders once again are excellent at forcing turnovers and contesting every shot.

West Virginia has backed off the "Press Virginia" style a bit this year. They still press occasionally, but they are excellent in halfcourt defense now, and have looked a bit better when they aren't speeding up the game. The Mountaineers are 3rd in defensive efficiency this year, so they have been great defensively. 

Two of the best defenses in the country squaring off against each other here. Two of the best defensive coaches in the country. This should be a hard fought low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

Eastern Michigan's zone defense can give opponents fits, and this Northern Illinois team isn't good offensively to begin with. Northern Illinois is much improved defensively, and they have struggled on the offensive end against all the better defenses they have faced. There is nothing to suggest that they will have much success here.

Eastern Michigan's offense turns it over on nearly 30% of all offensive possessions. Tons of wasted possessions here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears are doing the same thing they did a year ago. Missouri State is using a ton of clock every time they have the ball. Missouri State is averaging using 21 seconds of the 30 second shot clock in MVC play thus far. 

Northern Iowa is using 19.7 seconds of the shot clock on an average possession, and this is a team that is always the most comfortable when playing at a slow pace. 

The two meetings between them last year finished at 123 points and 106 points. They were both played extremely slowly. 

Missouri State is a team that I was very successful taking unders with last year, and with them slowing down even more again in conference play, I'm backing the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Howard Bison defense ranks 350th in the nation in efficiency. This team can't stop anyone. Norfolk State has what I believe to be the best offense in the conference. They have been extremely efficient in their first couple games in conference action.

Howard has a couple good scorers and should be able to get their points as well.

This total is too low based on Norfolk State struggling to score against non conference opponents. All three of the games between these two last year flew past this posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams both play at an extremely quick pace. The last two meetings between these two have finished at 174 and 186 points. 

Bethune Cookman is 24th in the nation in overall pace. Coppin State is 7th. Coppin State is playing much faster than they did a year ago, and last year's meeting was played at a breakneck pace of 81 possessions. 

I would expect an extremely quick pace here, and the only way this doesn't go over is some terrible shooting from both teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

The first game of the year Virginia beat Syracuse 48-34. Do I expect anything like that here? No, but they can pick things up quite a bit and it will still be under this total. 

Virginia's offense was good last year, but they lost all of their offensive efficiency when Hunter, Guy, Jerome, and company left. The Cavs are still great defensively, but their firepower on offense is very weak now.

Syracuse and Virginia have battled to very low games before. I expect it again.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

Duquesne's defense is light years better than it was last season. The Dukes offense has faced an extremely easy schedule of defenses this year, so I think they are a bit overvalued right now. 

We know Jamion Christian's teams (Siena last year) love to slow things down and this number has moved up quite a bit.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

VMI has sped up their pace quite a bit in recent games. The Keydets tried to slow things down a bit earlier this year, but it wasn't working. They have gone back to pushing the pace as they did earlier this year.

E Tennessee State has played a lot of good defensive teams who slow it down of late. That definitely isn't the case here. There is value in this number because of the Bucs recent lower scoring games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UT Arlington Mavericks had the best defense in the Sun Belt when it came to effective field goal percentage defense last year. UT Arlington's defensive numbers don't look great so far this year, but it is important to keep some perspective. Look at the schedule UT Arlington has played so far. They had to take on Gonzaga, Oregon, Houston, Furman, and Nevada. They have played the 8th toughest slate of offenses so far this year. They will face much weaker offenses in the Sun Belt.

Coastal Carolina turns the ball over a lot on offense and wastes too many possessions. UT Arlington doesn't get to the line much, and that has been the downfall of the Coastal Carolina defense (fouling too much). 

The two meetings between these two teams last year were 74-54 and 61-58. Neither even came close to this total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day/night Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

Illinois is a completely different team with Kofi Cockburn in the middle of the paint on defense. Brad Underwood's team is no longer fouling a lot on defense, and they are really bothering opponents into taking tough shots.

Rutgers has multiple great shot blockers, and I'm impressed with how hard Rutgers plays on defense every possession. Without Geo Baker, the offense has a lower upside.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls are both playing at a slow pace. If we look at their last four games, the Bulls are 22nd in tempo. The Pacers are 27th out of 30 in tempo. There isn't any reason to expect this to be anything other than a slow paced game with both teams playing in the halfcourt.

Divisional unders have done much better than overs in the NBA. These teams know each other very well. In fact, they have a history of playing a lot of unders against each other. The under is 19-7 in the last 26 games between these two teams. 

The Bulls have been a good under team against good teams. Chicago has put up big numbers offensively on bad teams, but they have struggled against quality teams. The under is 20-7 in the Bulls last 27 games against teams with a winning record.

The referee crew here is a slight positive for the under as well.

This number is up because of the recent high scoring games these teams have played in, and I think that creates some value on the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a really low posted total, but I still have to take the under here. The Sacramento State Hornets have played 12 games so far this year. How many of their 12 games have stayed under this low total? A whopping 11 of their 12 games have stayed under this total. Their second highest scoring game of the year had a total of 121 points scored.

Sacramento State is favored in this game, and I think they can get their style of play. The Hornets play strong defense, and they use more than 20 seconds of the shot clock on average. Northern Arizona ranks among the 35 slowest teams in the country in average possession length. This should be played in the halfcourt.

I had this game totaled at 119.5 here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have played an extremely low scoring series against each other. These two teams have met seven times since the start of 2017. The highest scoring game was 139 points. Six of the seven games have finished at 126 points or less. They haven't even been close to this total.

Coastal Carolina is playing slightly faster this year, but Texas State is good at controlling the pace. Texas State also forces a lot of turnovers, and that is Coastal Carolina's primary weakness. Coastal Carolina ranks 290th in the nation in turnover percentage. They will likely end up with a lot of wasted trips in this game.

Texas State is 238th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Bobcats haven't scored more than 70 points in a Sun Belt game so far this year.

The total deserves to be higher than the last few meetings, but this is too big of an adjustment. I see a good amount of value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles are 330th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Austin Peay is 319th in effective field goal percentage defense. A total this low between two teams with very weak defenses is pretty rare.

Tennessee Tech has allowed 78 points or more in six of their last seven games against a Division I opponent. They allowed 74 in the other one to Eastern Kentucky (341st in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense). 

Austin Peay is 78th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Governors have a great forward in Terry Taylor. Taylor is so efficient in the post, and Tennessee Tech doesn't have anyone who can slow him down. Tennessee Tech was better defensively last year than they are this year, and they gave up 77 points to Austin Peay last year.

Tennessee Tech has been playing faster in OVC action than they did in non-conference play. I think this game gets into the 140's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers have seen 9 of their last 10 games go below this posted total in regulation. Eight of those nine have been 126 points or less. Purdue isn't very good on offense, but the Boilermakers are an excellent defensive team. 

Purdue ranks 9th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have a lot of length on the inside and can really contest shots well. Purdue also slows the tempo down very well. They rank 340th out of 353 teams in the country in pace.

Michigan is an average paced team. The Wolverines have had some very high scoring games, but they have also played very low scoring games against Louisville and Oregon. Purdue is actually slightly better on defense than those two teams. 

Michigan's defense has faced a really tough slate of offenses thus far, and I think the Wolverines are fairly solid defensively.

With the line move up today, I have to back the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte Hornets are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA right now, and it isn't even close. Charlotte is averaging 94.19 possessions per game in their last ten games. The second slowest team in that time (Pacers) is averaging 96.79 possessions per game.

Toronto has all sorts of major injuries right now. Pascal Siakim was amazing until getting injured. Fred Van Vleet was having a great year, but he is out with an injury now. Norman Powell is injured. Marc Gasol is injured. The guys who have been getting playing time instead now (Johnson, Thomas, Hollis-Jefferson, etc) have much lower offensive ratings than those guys who are injured. Toronto's current lineup is excellent on defense though. The Raptors are fifth in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Johnson and Thomas rate as elite defenders according to advanced metrics.

With the slower tempo and weakened offensive firepower here, I like the value on the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Western Carolina has improved immensely on offense under Mark Prosser the last two years. They were 325th in effective field goal percentage offense the year before Prosser came to coach this team. In his first season last year, Western Carolina jumped to 52nd in effective field goal percentage offense. What about this year? The Catamounts are 15th in that same category. 

VMI is 336th in defensive efficiency. The Keydets haven't been able to stop anyone. It is hard to see that changing here against Western Carolina. VMI has been nailing a bunch of 3's lately though. Freshman Travis Evee has made 6 three pointers by himself in 3 of their last 4 games. VMI started the season playing slower on offense, but they are pushing the pace lately as they did most of last year.

Western Carolina is 260th in defensive efficiency, and the Catamounts have faced a lot of weak defenses this season.

The two regular season games between these teams last year finished at 161 points and 174 points. The conference tournament matchup finished at 179 points. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both St. Bonaventure and George Mason work to slow the pace down. The Bonnies are 326th in overall tempo. George Mason is 282nd in overall tempo. Both of these teams do a good job getting back in transition as well, and I would expect this one to be played in the halfcourt.

Two of the three meetings between these two last year stayed well under this posted total. I had this game lined at 127, and I see this as a value.

Look for a tight and low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both the games between these two teams sailed over the posted total last year. I think the over has value again here. Hampton is 346th out of 353 teams in defensive efficiency. USC Upstate is 329th in defensive efficiency. These are the worst of the worst when it comes to defense.

Jermaine Marrow had to sit out several games for Hampton, but he is back and he is one of the best scorers most people haven't heard about. Marrow is the guy that makes this Hampton offense go, and they play much faster with him on the court. No one on this USC Upstate team can guard him.

USC Upstate's offensive efficiency numbers have clearly risen in recent games. The youngsters are starting to knock down some jumpers, and they'll get open looks here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears found success last year by slowing things down to a crawl last year, especially in conference play. The Bears averaged using 20.6 seconds of the shot clock per possession in MVC action. They are doing exactly the same this year. The Bears are averaging 21.0 seconds per play in MVC action so far this year. 

Illinois State doesn't take good care of the basketball and neither does Missouri State. We should see a lot of wasted possessions in this game. Look for both teams to have empty trips and with a slow pace that is even more important.

Both teams are better on defense than offense. Missouri State has seen 4 of its last 5 games stay at 128 points or lower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers defense ranks number one in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have given up just 0.783 points per possession on the season. That is easily first in the nation. The Cavs are averaging using 21.3 seconds per possession which is easily the slowest in the nation. 

Virginia has played 10 of its 13 games under this extremely low total. Boston College would like to play a little quicker, but the Eagles offense has been held in the 40's twice already this year by Richmond and Duke. Boston College is without Nik Popovic and that hurts their offensive efficiency quite a bit.

This number has been bet up and I see a good amount of value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls and Dallas Mavericks are two banged up teams. Otto Porter is out for the Bulls. Lauri Markannen is listed as questionable for this game. Zach LaVine is probable with an ankle injury. Kristaps Porzingis is out for this one for Dallas. Tim Hardway Jr. is listed as questionable. 

Chicago ranks 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past 10 games. The Bulls are 27th in offensive efficiency. The Bulls have slowed their tempo down drastically from earlier this year as well. Chicago is 22nd in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. Dallas is 17th, so they are slightly slower than average as well.

With some key pieces missing this is a pretty high posted total.

The Bulls have seen 12 of their last 15 games stay under this number in regulation.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers have consistently been a very low scoring team. I took the under in their last game. Unfortunately it lost because of overtime. Nine of Purdue's last ten games have been under this posted total at the end of regulation. Six of those nine games have been at 124 or lower. 

Purdue is 8th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Boilermakers have a lot of length and they are great at contesting shots.

Illinois is much better defensively this year. The Fighting Illini are using a completely different style of defense. It helps that they have Kofi Cockburn in the middle of the paint. He is a defensive force. Illinois went from 338th in fouls committed per field goal attempt last year to 6th this year. 

Illinois was 52nd in pace of play last year, but they are 185th so far this year. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* It certainly isn't exciting to bet a Houston Baptist under, but this number is so high I have to bet it. This is an early season conference game, and one of the two teams in this matchup has clearly looked to be slowing down their pace from a couple seasons ago (Northwestern State). 

Neither of these defenses are good, but this is about as high of a total as you will ever see in college basketball. Northwestern State isn't efficient at all on offense, and they will look to slow this game down.

Early conference action with totals of 155 or higher have been good unders in the past decade (55% or so) and this one fits that system. 

Look for a high scoring game, but this number is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials have struggled on offense all year. That is despite the fact that they have played the 15th weakest slate of defenses so far this year. George Washington just isn't a team that has many scoring options. Justin Mazzulla was one of their best options before he stepped away from the team a few weeks ago (transferring). George Washington is likely to struggle badly in A10 play on the offensive end.

St. Bonaventure ranks among the 50 slowest paced teams in the country. The Bonnies were the second best defense in the A10 last year. They are very good on defense again this year. 

These two teams play at an almost identical pace, so I wouldn't expect to see either team looking to get out in transition much.

Neither team gets to the free throw line much, and that is a big positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State Aggies aren't at 100% healthy now. Their star scorer Sam Merrill is banged up and playing through it. Neemias Queta is questionable here with an injury as well.

San Diego State is 7th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 11th in defensive efficiency. This Aztecs team is excellent on the defensive end. 

Utah State is a top 60 defense in the country as well. Both of these teams are very good on the defensive glass.

Both games between these two teams were played at 63 possessions last year, and these teams are playing a similar style this year. If a similar tempo is playing here it would take excellent shooting numbers to top this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons have played five straight games against Division I opponents that have finished at 154 points or higher. Air Force is running a new offense with more screening and cutting. That has really helped Ryan Swan and Lavelle Scottie excel on the offensive end.

Air Force is absolutely terrible on defense. They are 340th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Air Force has played the 20th easiest slate of offenses (out of 353) so far this year as well.

UNLV's offense has improved of late. Their biggest problem has been with teams who force turnovers at a high rate, but Air Force very rarely forces turnovers. 

With both offenses clearly having the upper hand, I like this one to get past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Pepperdine ranks 20th in average possession length. The Waves are playing at an extremely fast pace. Gonzaga is more than happy to play quickly. The Bulldogs are 15th in average possession length this year.

Gonzaga has been running up the score on weaker teams. They put up 101 points on Texas Southern. They put up 112 points on Eastern Washington. It would be a surprise if they don't put up a big number here.

Gonzaga's defense was elite last year, but they lost their shot blockers in the frontcourt. The Bulldogs aren't bad on defense, but they are far weaker than a year ago.

With both defenses weaker than a year ago, I think this number is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs are much better offensively now that Kendric Davis is eligible. He is the team's most talented offensive player by a large margin. Davis has been leading this team to several very impressive offensive performances in a row the last few games. SMU has scored 85 and 82 points against two pretty good defenses in their last two games.

Vanderbilt is playing fairly quick under first year coach Jerry Stackhouse. The Commodores are 13th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 209th in effective field goal percentage defense.

I had this game lined at 148.5 and the drop in the line has created value.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Florida Gulf Coast is no longer the fast paced dunk city version from several years ago. This team doesn't have enough offensive firepower so they have drastically slowed down their pace of play. Florida Gulf Coast has stayed under this low total in 9 of their last 10 games against Division I opponents. 

Lipscomb has played a lot of teams who like to run so far this year, but Florida Gulf Coast will do their best to keep this game in the halfcourt. 

I had this game lined in the upper 120's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Weber State Wildcats have decided to play at a much slower tempo this year. Many teams in the Big Sky will try to push the pace on Weber State, but Northern Arizona is happy to play at a slow tempo. Northern Arizona is 321st in average possession length this year. Weber State is 288th in average possession length this year. 

Both Weber State and Northern Arizona have faced a very tough slate of offenses so far this year. These defenses are far from strong, but they aren't as bad as they look on the stat sheet right now.

Jerrick Harding is questionable with a sprained ankle here, and Harding is the key guy for Weber State on offense. I like this play even if he plays, but it has more value if he sits. Kham Davis who averages 8.8 points per game is out for this game also.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are consistently the same type of team. Georgia Tech struggles on offense, but they play really hard on the defensive end for Josh Pastner. The Yellow Jackets are 252nd in offensive efficiency, but they are 26th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. 

North Carolina was playing somewhat slower this year to begin with, but now that they have serious injury problems this team is way different than it has been in previous seasons. The Tar Heels don't have their star in Cole Anthony. They also lost Anthony Harris to a torn ACL.

North Carolina is 314th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Tar Heels are 96th in the same defensive category.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* James Madison has committed to playing much faster this year. The Dukes are 12th in the country in average length of possession, so they are definitely flying up and down the floor.

College of Charleston has the best player in the conference in Grant Riller. Charleston faced a bunch of very good defenses in the non-conference slate, and their offensive numbers are going to get a lot better in the CAA against very weak defenses like James Madison. The Dukes have faced the 7th easiest offenses out of 353 teams in the country. That changes here.

The tempo should be quick and I think this total is several points too low.

Take the over.