Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star Play Over* The UNLV Runnin' Rebels are excellent at getting the pace they want. UNLV definitely wants to run, and I think they can make this a high scoring game.

UNLV has seen their last 11 straight games over this posted total. Three of Colorado State's last six have topped this total as well.

Both of these teams are great at getting to the line. UNLV is 4th in the nation in FT/FGA and Colorado State is 88th (out of 351). 

Look for a fast tempo and lots of trips to the stripe to get this one past the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mercer Bears are 336th in the nation (out of 351) in tempo. UNC Greensboro is 335th in the nation in tempo. Both of these teams want to slow things down, and we should get an extremely slow game here.

UNC Greensboro is playing a full two seconds per possession slower on offense than last year, and that has meant a ton of low scoring games. The Spartans were 173rd in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 68th so far this year.

I project this game to have 59 possessions, and without some really high shooting marks this one will stay under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Tennessee State Bucs have been the best defense in the SoCon by a large margin this year. They are allowing slightly less than 0.90 points per possession in the conference. 

Western Carolina was the worst offense in the conference last year, and they are second worst so far this season. 

Both of these teams excel at forcing turnovers, and both offenses have struggled with turnovers. Expect a lot of wasted possessions in this game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles ranked 184th out of 351 teams in tempo last year. So far this season, they are 303rd. This is a team that has slowed things down and decided to try to win low scoring battles with their defense. 

Eastern Michigan has one main weakness on defense: they give up too many offensive rebounds. Ohio is the worst offensive rebounding team in the MAC, so that limits their ability to take advantage of the one weakness.

Ohio is really bad on offense right now. They have averaged 0.918 points per possession in MAC play. That's easily worst in the conference.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* LSU has slowed their tempo down drastically in league play. The Tigers play another team who slows things down in a big way here in Vanderbilt. While Vanderbilt has been bad defensively this year, I think their defense should improve a bit from here on out. They were solid last year on defense, and I expect a bit of a regression to the mean.

LSU has been much worse on offense in the conference, and they have been improving steadily on defense.

It's extremely rare to find a game where two teams are going to play as slowly as these two lined with a total of almost 150 points. They'll need to shoot a high percentage to get past this number. I like the value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies have a lot of youth, but this Huskies team is buying into Mike Hopkins' plan on the defensive end. The Huskies have good athleticism and solid length and the 2-3 matchup zone is working well for them. Opponents are scoring only 0.982 points per possession against Washington in Pac 12 play. 

The Huskies offense is averaging only 0.96 points per possession in Pac 12 play. Washington has played four straight fast paced Pac 12 opponents, but all four of those games stayed under this total. 

Utah is playing at the slowest pace on offense of any team in Pac 12 play. The Utes are using 19.9 seconds of the 30 shot clock on average. This will be easily the slowest paced team Washington has played in the conference. The Huskies have been playing very fast paced teams thus far in conference play.

The slower tempo and different defensive looks should keep this one lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Alabama Jaguars have been pushing the pace to an extreme of late. Six of their last seven games have played to a pace of 72 possessions or faster.

Coastal Carolina is putting people on the line a lot this year, and in general the Chanticleers defense is much worse than it was a year ago. They are giving up 77 points per game in their last four contests. 

Both of these teams rank in the top 95 in the country in getting to the free throw line. In a game that should be close, a bunch of trips to the line with teams in the bonus early could be important in pushing this one past the total. 

In South Alabama's last 9 games against Division One opponents, 7 of them have topped this total. I think they dictate the pace here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't like taking an under this low, but by my numbers I have to do it. Virginia is the slowest paced team in the country. Georgia Tech is 323rd in tempo out of 351, so they play very slowly too. Last year when these teams met they finished at 111 points, and I think that's a good prediction for this contest too.

Georgia Tech's offense is averaging only 0.959 points per possession in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets are actually first in ACC play in defensive efficiency though, allowing only 0.872 points per possession. 

Virginia is first in the nation in defensive efficiency on the year, and they are second in ACC play in that stat. The Cavs are allowing only 0.853 points per possession on the year. 

A very slow paced game where both defenses do a good job defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal State Fullerton Titans are first in the nation in FT/FGA so far this year. They are attacking the rim and then shooting 72.2% from the line. Fullerton is also averaging 72 possessions per game this year. Their pace is much quicker than last year.

UCSB is a different team this year under a new coach as well. This is no longer a team that looks to stall and win low scoring games. UCSB is 58th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are shooting almost 40% from three point range. Fullerton's 3 point defense has been really bad this season.

With a high tempo and plenty of free throws and open looks from three point range, I see this one going past the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns and Texas Tech Red Raiders met three times last year. All three games stayed below this posted total. They finished at 120, 124, and 113 points. None were even close to this number. 

These are two excellent defenses. Texas Tech was only 56th in defensive efficiency last year. They are third so far this year. A huge jump. Texas was 21st last year, and they are 7th this season. 

Both teams have slowed their pace down drastically in Big 12 Conference play. Despite playing three fast paced teams in their last four contests, Texas has played 3 of their last 4 games to a final regulation total of 129 points or less. 

This number was bet up on the open to a point where I have to take the under. These defenses are too good for me not to.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Chicago Ramblers are coming off a rare higher scoring game, but this is a team that has been consistently under this number. In fact, their first five MVC games were all 129 points or lower. Last game, they shot the ball extremely well and they won 81-65. I think that game was the exception rather than the rule. That last game though is giving us value on the number here.

Southern Illinois and Loyola Chicago both like to slow the game down. There is no reason this tempo should be quick at all. Neither of these team get many second chance points, and that is a clear help here.

The MVC is a league where points can be tough to come by, and with these two teams sharing a slow-paced style of play, I like the value on the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights and Cincinnati Bearcats played twice last year. The two games played to 60-50 and 53-49 finals. It was no fluke. There were only 61 possessions in the first game and 60 in the second meeting. 

These are two teams who are much better on the defensive end than the offensive end. They are also both significantly better on defense this year than they were last season. Cincinnati was 15th in points per possession allowed on defense last year and they are third this year in the country. UCF was 18th last year and they are fourth this year. These teams are excellent defensively.

Taylor being out has really hurt the UCF offense. He's doubtful for this game and if he plays he likely will be limited minutes wise. 

While Cincinnati has played some of their games to a slightly quicker pace this year, when they play against teams who have a real chance to beat them (quality teams), the Bearcats slow things down. The tempo should stay slow here.

I don't like taking an under that is this low, but my number here is 115.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The LSU Tigers started the year by torching the nets against some bad defenses. LSU has still been good on offense for the year as a whole, but their numbers aren't nearly as gaudy as they were early in the season.

LSU is averaging 1.14 points per possession for the year, but in SEC play they are averaging just 1.00 points per possession. The Tigers defense has gotten better as the season has gone along. 

Georgia is first in the SEC in defensive efficiency at 0.928 points per possession inside SEC play. They rank 25th in the nation in points per possession allowed for the year as a whole. Georgia is using 19.9 seconds of the shot clock on average in SEC play, and the Bulldogs are averaging only 0.947 points per possession.

Georgia should slow the pace of this game, and LSU has played to the pace of their opponent of late. Without better than normal shooting numbers, this one should stay under solidly.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears finished as the slowest paced team in the Big 12 last year. There's a good chance they'll finish as the slowest paced team in the conference again this year. Baylor wants to slow the game down and win with their defense.

Oklahoma State has played quickly so far in Big 12 play, but they have played 3 of the 4 fastest paced teams in the Big 12 during this early conference season. Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Iowa State are going to be forcing the tempo all year. 

Oklahoma State is good at forcing turnovers, and this Baylor backcourt has been careless with the ball. Those turnovers lead to wasted possessions and time burned off the clock.

All five of Baylor's games in the Big 12 this year have stayed under this number in regulation. In fact, four of them have been 130 or lower.

This total is too high for a Baylor game. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Totals System CASH* The San Antonio Spurs have been a great under team on the road against subpar opponents. In their last 78 games on the road against a team with a win percentage of 33% or lower, the Spurs have gone 50-28 to the under. That's 64% under the total. They are 4-0 to the under in this system this year. They are 9-1 to the under in their last 10 that fit this system.

This is a day game on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. These games have done great for the under in recent years, and I think it makes sense considering this is an odd schedule spot. 

The Spurs offense is 28th in the NBA in efficiency on the road. Defensively, the Spurs have been at their best in recent weeks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Monday Early Totals CASH* The Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets meet early on Monday to tip off the NBA's MLK Day action. 

These early start times are good for the under on the weekend, and in the past they have been very good to under bettors on Martin Luther King Jr Day as well. It makes sense because players aren't accustomed to the early tip times, and that usually causes a slower tempo.

In their last 8 games- Charlotte is 19th in the NBA in tempo and Detroit is 24th. In that span, Detroit is sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and Charlotte is eighth. Charlotte is 18th in offensive efficiency and Detroit is 25th during that span.

The under is at 61% in the last ten years in games that start at 4 pm EST or earlier between November and March where the home team is favored by 3 or more. This one fits.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The New York Knicks host the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday afternoon at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks have really slowed their pace down of late. They rank second to last in the NBA in tempo in the past six games. New York also ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency during that period.

New Orleans has played quickly all year, but they have slowed down of late. The Pelicans are 18th in the NBA in tempo in their last six games. They are 14th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

Sunday day game unders have been a very profitable betting strategy in the long run. This one fits a system I like with the following filters:

-Sunday game that tips at 5 pm EST or earlier

-The home team has an average pace of 98 possessions per game or less on the year

-The game is played between October and March 

-The total is 191.5 or higher.

This one fits the system. I think this total is a few points too high considering the pace the Knicks are playing at.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks were an over machine for quite a while. The books had to start posting their totals extremely high, and now they have gone under the total four times in a row.

Milwaukee is a team that plays slowly. On the year, the Bucks are 24th in the NBA in tempo. In their last six games they are 27th. 

Miami has been the slowest paced team in the NBA over the past few weeks. It has worked great for them to play slowly and win with defense. The Heat are on a big run that has vaulted them up in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. Over their last ten games, the Heat are playing more than 1.5 possessions per game slower than any other team in the NBA.

Sunday day game unders have been a very profitable betting strategy in the long run. This one fits a system I like with the following filters:

-Sunday game that tips at 5 pm EST or earlier

-The home team has an average pace of 98 possessions per game or less on the year

-The game is played between October and March 

-The total is 191.5 or higher.

This one fits the system. The system is hitting 60.1% unders in the past 10 years.

Take the under.  

*4 Star Play Over* The FIU Panthers have decided to speed up noticeably of late. FIU was a slow paced team the past couple years, but they have played six of their last nine games to a tempo of 72 possessions or quicker. I don't think the books have adjusted their numbers enough yet.

UTEP's defense has been downright awful of late. The Miners are allowing 1.113 points per possession in the conference. UTEP has allowed 75, 97, and 73 points to mediocre offenses in their last three games. 

I'll go with the over based on the recent trends of these two.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies are playing the Syracuse matchup zone that their coach learned under Jim Boeheim. It is doing a nice job limiting the shooting numbers of their opponents. 

Washington started the season playing very fast, but in recent games they are slowing the tempo a lot. This total doesn't reflect the new slower tempo of the Huskies. 

Stanford has been inconsistent on offense this year, and they tend to play to the pace of their opponent.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces are 348th in the nation out of 351 teams in tempo. Evansville is great at defending without fouling. They are using more than 20 seconds of the shot clock on average on their offensive possessions. 

Drake hasn't played a team in the MVC yet that slows things down the way Evansville does. Drake's relatively higher scoring numbers in the MVC have made this total too high considering who their opponent is in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference is one where there is a lot of good defense played. Bradley ranks 35th in defensive efficiency in the country, but only 242nd in offensive efficiency. 

Loyola Chicago is 77th in defensive efficiency, and they are 325th in overall pace of play as well. The Ramblers are very consistent at slowing the game down. 

I had this one lined at 124 and I see solid value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I'll be surprised if Chris Beard lets his Red Raiders get into a track meet with West Virginia. Beard is an excellent coach, and Texas Tech and West Virginia played two games that went into OT last year and both were way under this total in regulation. 

Texas Tech is slowing the pace down on offense quite a bit more in Big 12 play than they were in non-conference action. West Virginia can struggle in halfcourt sets on offense. 

I expect a game where neither team gets many easy looks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans haven't played very well in their last couple games. They were blown away by Ohio State and then were fortunate to win in overtime against Rutgers. Expect Tom Izzo's bunch to play much better here. I think that means improved defensive intensity.

Michigan doesn't want any kind of fast paced basketball here. The Wolverines have done a nice job controlling tempo in the past, and they are much better on defense this year than they have been in recent years.

A rivalry game tends to lead to better defensive efforts on the whole.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders defense has been the best in Conference USA for the last few seasons. They should be the best again this year. MTSU is allowing only 0.877 points per possession inside the conference so far. 

Louisiana Tech no longer plays at a really quick pace like they did when current Florida coach Mike White was there. The Bulldogs could only score 61 points at MTSU last year in a 71-61 loss. Both of the teams are very similar to last year's teams, and I don't see a reason for this kind of adjustment on the total. 

MTSU likes to slow the game down and they have slightly less offensive weapons this year with Jacorey Williams and Reggie Upshaw having graduated at the end of last season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* UNC Wilmington is playing at the fastest pace of any team in the CAA. The Seahawks are also terrible on defense. Wilmington is allowing 1.143 points per possession for the season, which is 339th out of 351 teams in the country. They are allowing teams to shoot a whopping 45% from 3 point range.

Elon's offense has been excellent of late. The Phoenix shoot up a bunch of 3's, and they should get the open looks here. Elon has sped up their tempo since CAA play started up. Elon's defense is worse than a year ago, and UNC Wilmington should get up a bunch of shots here and score a solid amount of points.

The early move down on this total isn't justified.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Offense should be hard to come by in this Missouri Valley Conference showdown. Missouri State is 51st in the nation in defensive efficiency. Evansville is 80th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Missouri State is 97th in offensive efficiency. Evansville is 213th in offensive efficiency. 

Evansville really slows the pace of the game. They rank 339th in overall tempo. Missouri State isn't much faster at 317th. This one should be played to a pace of around 61 possessions. 

Both teams are better at not fouling than they are at getting to the line. 

In their last 7 games vs. a D 1 opponent, Evansville hasn't scored more than 68 points in any of those games. Missouri State hasn't scored more than 68 points in any of their last six games either. These teams are consistently low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats have almost always ended up playing at a slow tempo under Bruce Weber when things get tight. Early in the year, they sometimes run against lesser opponents, but in the Big 12 this has been a team that likes to force games into a half court contest. We're seeing signs of this already this season. 

Oklahoma State has played against a bunch of teams that push the tempo. I believe their numbers are a bit skewed toward the fast side thanks to games against teams like Oklahoma, UT Rio Grande Valley (7th in nation in pace), and West Virginia. The Cowboys are more efficient on defense than offense as well.

I think this total should be in the 144 or 145 area, so I see a significant amount of value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials have been great at forcing a slow tempo this year. Since December 1, George Washington has played one game that has gone over this total. That was last game against Rhode Island when the Rams torched the nets for 81 points in a 81-60 win at GW. 

Davidson is playing at a slower tempo this year. They rank 250th in tempo. They were in the top 100 in pace just two years ago. George Washington ranks 347th out of 351 in the nation in tempo. 

Neither of these teams get to the line much at all, and neither team fouls very much. That's a big bonus in addition to the slow tempo. Barring some very high shooting numbers from long range, this one should stay under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Dallas Mavericks offense has been tremendous in recent games. Dallas ranks second in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. They are second to only the Golden State Warriors. 

Dallas also ranks 6th in the NBA in tempo in the last five games. The Mavericks had previously been playing at a much slower tempo. Along with their strong offense, Dallas ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games.

Orlando has been pushing the pace all year, and they have been terrible on defense all season as well. The Magic are 26th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year. They are sixth in tempo. 

I don't see much quality defense being played here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TAKEDOWN* The Toronto Raptors host the Miami Heat tonight. Kyle Lowry is out of the lineup for the Raptors. Lowry is definitely a key guy in the offense, and I expect them to slow things down a bit without him playing.

Miami is playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last ten games. The Heat have shot blocking big man Hassan Whiteside back in the lineup, and that makes their defense much better.

The three referees in this game are some of the best under refs you'll find in the NBA. They have career under percentages of 54.8% unders, 54.6% unders, and 52.9% unders. That's definitely a nice boost to the under here.

The under is 60-29-1 in the Heat's last 90 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

The sharp money likes the under here. Only 28% of bets are on the under, but 69% of the money is on the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles rank 293rd in the nation in overall tempo. They set up a zone and slow the game down. Eastern Michigan has been reliant on getting to the line on the offensive end in many years of late. They aren't very good in half court sets. Central Michigan ranks in the top ten in least fouls committed so far this year. 

Central Michigan is 259th in overall tempo this year. The Chippewas were 5th last year. They have obviously undergone a significant tempo change this season. I don't expect to see them force the pace as they did last year against Eastern Michigan. 

This is definitely a rivalry game and on the whole I believe that helps the under as the defenses stay fully engaged most of the times in these matchups.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are without their star big man in Jason Carter. They have very little inside presence. Jordan Dartis who averages 13.3 points per game, is questionable in this one. Dartis has a hip injury.

Ball State is also without two players. Jontrell Walker is suspended after being arrested recently. Walker averaged 8 points per game. Zach Gunn is out with an injury and he averages 5.5 points per game. 

Ball State has slowed their tempo down noticeably in the last few games. They are clearly playing slower than last year. Ohio plays a little quicker, but they are far less efficient on offense. 

Neither team is good at getting to the line and both teams don't foul much at all. The injuries here combined with Ball State's slow it down style of late makes me think this one stays below 150.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes and Florida State Seminoles are both excellent on the defensive end. Miami is 6th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. The Hurricanes are third in effective field goal percentage defense. Florida State is 20th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 10th in effective field goal percentage defense.

Miami is playing faster than they were last year, but I still don't see them wanting to have a track meet here. Only four of their games so far this year have been played to a pace of higher than 70 possessions. Their two games against Florida State last year played to a 62 and 57 pace.

Both of these offenses have been inconsistent this year, and they are up against one of the best defenses they have faced yet. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* William & Mary has played 14 games this year. Of those games, 12 of the 14 have gone over this total. The Tribe are first in the nation in 3 point shooting percentage at a whopping 43.9%. The Tribe are fifth in the nation in effective field goal percentage. 

William & Mary has been great on offense in the last few years, but their defense has continued to be a problem. It is again this year. They are allowing 1.116 points per possession (318th in the country). 

Drexel wants to run under Coach Zach Spiker. The Dragons have picked up the tempo in CAA play so far. They are third in tempo in CAA action. William & Mary is first. This game should be played at a quick pace.

Drexel is allowing an eye popping 1.233 points per possession in their three CAA games this year. The Dragons allowd 108 points to William & Mary in one of the meetings last year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Miami Heat and Utah Jazz meet on Sunday afternoon in Miami. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games against one another. Earlier this year, they played to a 84-74 game. Six of their last seven meetings have finished at 195 points or less.

Miami is much better defensively now that they have Whiteside back in the middle. The Jazz defense isn't as good without Gobert, but they are still better than league average there. 

Miami ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA in the past eight games. The Jazz rank as the fifth slowest in tempo during that time. Utah also ranks dead last in offensive efficiency. 

Sunday day unders have been a strong angle in recent years- and when you have a home team playing at 97.8 possessions or fewer on the season and the game is played at 5 pm EST or earlier on a Sunday the under is hitting 61% in the last nine years. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Niagara Purple Eagles rank 13th in the nation in least time spent per offensive possession. They are shooting it on average after only 14.8 seconds of their possession. This team is flying up and down the floor. Niagara also ranks 98th out of 351 in offensive efficiency. What about defense? They are terrible. They rank 330th out of 351. Niagara is definitely a team that can make games very high scoring.

Marist is shooting it about one full second on average quicker than last year. Marist is 323rd in defensive efficiency, so we have two teams that prefer to play fast here and two teams who are terrible on the defensive end.

A big bonus is the trips to the charity stripe. Marist is 40th out of 351 in the nation in FT per field goal attempted. Niagara is 52nd in the nation in FT/FGA. There should be plenty of free throws here.

I had this number quite a bit higher than this.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights are an elite defense. They ranked 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 7th so far this season. Temple was 168th in that statistic last year, and they are 117th so far this year.

UCF is expected to be without point guard BJ Taylor again for this one. Taylor is the best scorer on the team. Chance McSpadden is doubtful and he has averaged 6 pts per game this year as well. UCF relies on getting to the line to score, and Temple is good at defending without fouling.

Temple and UCF are both happy to play at a slow tempo. Temple is 268th in overall tempo out of 351 in the country. UCF is 291st. 

This is an early start on a Sunday as well which is a positive for the under in the long run according to the numbers. I think this one stays in the 120's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils are easily first in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are averaging a whopping 1.256 points per possession on offense this season. Duke is playing from inside out this year, and NC State doesn't have the defensive presence in the inside to slow down the Duke frontcourt.

Duke's average possession length is 16th quickest in the country. NC State is 25th in that same statistic. These two teams are both flying up and down the floor.

Both of these teams rank in the top 12 in the country in offensive rebounding. 

Look for a very high scoring game here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan Chippewas have changed the way they play this year. Central Michigan ranked 7th in average possession length out of 351 teams last year. They were pushing the pace like crazy. This year they rank 297th out of 351 teams. They have slowed things down dramatically. It's hard for the oddsmakers to make numbers on this team's games.

Kent State has been a team that plays to the pace of their opponent since Rob Senderoff has been there. This is a team that sometimes plays really quick, and sometimes is forced into a low possessions game. They very rarely dictate the pace.

With the tempo I expect in this game, it would take some very high shooting percentages to go over this number. 

Kent State relies on free throws for a lot of their offensive production and Central Michigan is top five in the nation at not fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wofford has an offense that should shred up the Southern Conference. Wofford just shoots the ball so well. Fletcher Magee is shooting 53.4% from 3 point range on the season and he has taken 104 shots from 3 point range. 

The Citadel will probably finish first or second in the nation in overall tempo this year. As high as this number is, Citadel has gone over it in 11 of their 14 games so far this year. Their defense is among the bottom 20 in the nation. 

Wofford and Citadel have played 4 times in the last couple years. The lowest final total was 169 points. The other 3 games all finished at 188 points or higher.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins are going to push the pace all year long. UCLA is 22nd in the nation in average possession length. They are only using half the shot clock on average to put up a shot. UCLA ranks in the top 50 at getting to the line. 

Cal prefers to play fast too, and their defense has been really poor this year. Cal has been giving up a lot of second chance points. Cal ranks 7th in the nation FT attempts per field goal attempted. Expect lots of free throws in this game.

This one should get to 160 or higher.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Valparaiso Crusaders really miss Alec Peters. Peters was their go to guy the last few years, and their offense is struggling without him. Valpo was 139th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 247th so far this year.

Southern Illinois has consistently been a MVC team who slows the pace down. The Salukis are 284th in average possession length so far this year. They also rank 57th in effective field goal percentage defense.

Both of these teams have been wasting a lot of possessions with turnovers of late.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Fordham is 284th in overall tempo this year. Duquesne is 304th in tempo. This should be a very slow paced game. Keith Dambrot has the Dukes playing a much slower pace this year in his first year at the school. The oddsmakers are trying to react to that change, but they aren't quite there yet. 

Both of these teams have very poor jump shooting numbers on the year. The combination of a slow tempo and two poor offenses is great for the under here.

My number here was 127. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Carolina Tar Heels have had a lot of trouble forcing the pace against Virginia. North Carolina has never gotten a matchup against Virginia to a higher tempo than 67 possessions dating back to 2014.

Last year, the two meetings between these two were played at 61 possessions and 55 possessions. Virginia is tremendous at making you play their game. This game is at Virginia, and that helps here.

While North Carolina is playing fast again this year, they are 100th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They rely on second chance points, and Virginia is great on the defensive glass. 

Virginia is only 34th in the nation in offensive efficiency, but they are easily first in defensive efficiency. I see them dictating a lower scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide are similar in that they are both significantly better on defense than offense. 

Georgia is 186th in effective field goal percentage offense, but they are a very impressive 16th in effective field goal percentage defense.  Alabama is 94th on offense in this stat and 47th on defense.

Georgia is playing quite a bit slower this year. The Bulldogs are 267th in overall tempo in the country. Georgia has only had 2 of their 13 games go over this number in regulation this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA on ESPN CASH* The Washington Wizards are healthy once again, and their offense has taken off since they got everyone back in the fold. Washington has scored 111 points or more in five of their last six games. The Wizards have scored 121 or more in three of those contests.

Memphis isn't playing as slow as they did earlier this year. They rank 19th in the NBA in tempo in the last six games. The Grizzlies have gotten some very good offensive production out of Tyreke Evans. Memphis ranks 5th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.146 points per possession in their last six games. What about Washington? The Wizards are third in that same stat, averaging an impressive 1.164 points per possession. 

Both of these teams have been big under teams for the season as a whole, which gives us line value here. Now that they have changed their stripes, I'll look to go over the total with them in spots.

I think this number is too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes are playing nearly six possessions quicker so far this year vs. a year ago. James Madison also ranked 196th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 318th in that same statistic so far this year. 

James Madison has played six of their last seven games to a pace of 72 possessions or quicker. If this game is played at that tempo, the over has an excellent chance of cashing. Hofstra has ranked in the top 65 in the country in the last three years in offensive efficiency. So far this year they are 86th, but I think they will improve on offense in league play.

Hofstra's defense is very weak. The Pride prefer to outscore teams in high scoring games, and they should push the pace here once again. Hofstra has only had 5 games stay under this total so far this year. They have had eight games finish at 161 points or higher, so Hofstra is often involved in very high scoring games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Towson Tigers made it clear in the preseason they wanted to play faster this year. Coach Pat Skerry said he wanted his team to have chances in transition. Towson hasn't played much quicker this year, but it is at least partially because of who they have played against. The Tigers have faced a bunch of very slow paced teams. That changes here.

UNC Wilmington ranks 11th in the nation in tempo. That is the fastest paced team Towson has played this year. In their game against Oakland (15th in tempo in the country), Towson lost 97-86 and the pace was a blistering 80 possessions.

Wilmington's defense ranks 322nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Towson should get to the line a bunch against them as well since they foul at a very high rate. Both teams are good at getting second chance points.

Take the over. 

 *3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes have decided to play stall ball in their last two games. It has worked really well. I expect to see it again here. In their last two games, Utah is using a remarkable 23.6 seconds of the 30 second shot clock to shoot the ball on average. Their win at Oregon saw a mind boggling low pace of just 55 possessions. They followed that up with a low 60 possession game against Oregon State.

Arizona has more talent than Utah, and Utah isn't going to want to get into a high scoring game against the Wildcats here. Arizona is a team that often plays to the pace of their opponent. If Utah is slowing things down even close to the rate they have been in recent games, it will be very hard to get a game above a total in the mid 140's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* South Alabama likes to push the pace, but they are terrible on offensive when it comes to efficiency. South Alabama ranks among the 50 worst teams in the country in turnovers as a percentage of their offensive possessions. They are 313th out of 351 in offensive efficiency overall.

South Alabama's defense ranks 88th best in the nation in defensive efficiency. This team has been getting after it on defense.

Texas State is 267th in offensive efficiency. The Bobcats also rank 345th out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. This is a team that does a tremendous job slowing the game down.

South Alabama has had 7 of their 14 games go under this total despite playing quickly. Texas State has seen 8 go under this number and 1 push of their 15 games. 

Good line value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Fort Wayne Mastodons have been great at forcing the tempo the last couple years. Fort Wayne has played 17 games this year and stunningly they haven't played a single game below a tempo of 70 possessions. Of their 17 games this year, 15 of them have gone over this total.

Oral Roberts has played quick with teams like Arkansas, Nebraska Omaha, and UNLV already this year. I don't think they'll be able to slow the game down very much here either. Oral Roberts has played 7 of their 16 games over this number. ORU ranks 288th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense.

Fort Wayne is 19th in the country in overall tempo, and they have torched the nets in Summit League play the last couple years. They should be able to do it again this year. This number is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors play a completely different style than they did a year ago. Last year, Austin Peay was playing quickly and had one of the worst defenses in the country. They brought in a new coach, Matt Figgers, who has this team playing aggressive defense and forcing loads of turnovers.

Tennessee Martin plays a unique zone defense that is typically a 3-2 zone, and zones have given Austin Peay serious problems so far this year. Austin Peay is scoring 0.78 points per possession against zone defenses on the season. 

Tennessee Martin ranks 332nd out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. I'm counting on them to slow the pace of the game with their zone.

Both teams rank among the 60 worst teams in the country at taking care of the basketball. A lot of turnovers in the halfcourt means a lot of wasted possessions. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Lakers are expected to get Brook Lopez back tonight. Lopez is averaging 12.8 points per game on the year. Kyle Kuzma is probable as well, and beat writers have reported the coaching staff says he will be available to play.

Andre Roberson is out for Oklahoma City in this one. That's key because Roberson is one of the best defenders in the NBA. Roberson is also a major liability on offense. Without him, the Thunder are better on offense and much weaker on defense. Roberson has missed three games due to injury this year, and the Thunder have allowed 116 points in two of the three games.

The Lakers are allowing 1.174 points per possession in their last three games. That is second worst in the NBA during that stretch. OKC is allowing 1.122 points per possession, which is 22nd.

The Thunder offense has been much better in recent games. They struggled much of the year on this end, but OKC is second in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games.

In Eric Lewis and Zach Zarba, two of the three officials in this game are big over refs. The over is 368-336 in Zarba's games. The over is 355-317 in the games Lewis has been a referee.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves were 5-27 two years ago. They are 11-4 so far this year. Brian Wardle is doing a tremendous job turning this team around. It all starts with defense. Bradley ranks 24th in the country in defensive efficiency, and they are 18th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Valparaiso enters a much tougher league this year as they jump from the Horizon League to the MVC. The Crusaders are struggling as well because Tevonn Walker still isn't 100% from having Mono for several weeks. 

Valpo's offense ranks 253rd in offensive efficiency. Bradley ranks 239th in that category. This look like a good old fashioned Missouri Valley Conference defensive duel. I don't think either team will find many open looks here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Duquesne has been very consistent at playing at a slow pace this year. The Dukes have seen 7 of their 14 games finish with 132 points total or less. 

George Washington ranks 347th out of 351 in the country in overall tempo. This team has played 12 straight games that have finished at 139 points or lower. This total is lower than that, but it shows the consistency of George Washington in keeping the game low scoring. In this contest, they'll face another opponent who wants to walk it up.

Duquesne is 300th in overall tempo this year. The Dukes have played the weakest schedule in the country so far this year, so while their offensive numbers are decent, I'm not convinced they will stay that way.

This projects as a game that finishes around 60 possessions, and that makes me project a game in the mid 120's. 

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The South Florida Bulls and East Carolina Pirates get together in a game that should be really ugly. South Florida ranks 341st in the nation in overall tempo. They are the home team here and they should be able to control the tempo here. 

South Florida is 320th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Bulls have serious turnover problems, and they can't shoot it. Combine that with their slow tempo and you get a team that can put up some really low numbers. 

East Carolina is even worse on offense. The Pirates rank 344th in offensive efficiency out of 351 teams in the country. Like USF, they are in the bottom 50 in the country in turnover percentage on offensive possessions. They have scored 53 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games.

Both teams rank in the top 75 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. The defenses should have a big edge here. 

This line is 8 points too high in my opinion. 

Take the under for a top rated play. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vanderbilt Commodores scored 54 points in the second half of their loss to Florida this past Saturday, but this is a team that has struggled to shoot the ball much of the year. 

Vanderbilt ranks 320th in the nation in average length of possession on offense. That is an extremely slow pace of play. To see a total this high with a team that plays that slowly is a rarity. 

Alabama ranks 63rd in the country in overall tempo, but the Crimson Tide are quite a bit better on defense than they are on offense. Alabama ranks 28th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

I see this one playing out to a tempo of about 68 possessions, and at that pace it takes some very high shooting percentages to get over this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan Chippewas have completely changed the way they play this year. Central Michigan ranked 5th in the nation in overall tempo last year. Where are they so far this year? The Chippewas rank 295th out of 351 in tempo this year. 

Coach Davis knows he doesn't have the same kind of offensive firepower this year, and he wants his team to take care of the basketball and play defense to win lower scoring games. It has worked thus far. Central Michigan has played 8 of their 10 Division One opponent games to a total of 147 or less. 

Ohio plays pretty quickly, but I think the Bobcats will be better on defense than offense in conference play this year. Ohio tends to put up a lot of shots from long range, and the strength of Central Michigan's defense is defending the three.

I think this number is too high based on the large change from Central Michigan from last year to this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia 76ers do play quickly, but because their offense isn't efficient and their defense is very good, they still rarely have extremely high scoring games.

In the last six games, the 76ers are second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are also 28th in offensive efficiency. 

Phoenix ranks 18th in the NBA in tempo in their last six games. The Suns clearly aren't playing at the ultra quick tempo they did earlier this year. Phoenix is 25th in offensive efficiency in the last six games in the NBA, and they are a solid 10th in defensive efficiency.

This high of a number is usually reserved for elite offenses or the worst defenses in the NBA. These teams don't fit that bill.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins are playing at the 15th quickest pace of any team in the country (average possession length). UCLA is going to push the tempo regardless of what kind of defense you play. Washington is 66th in that same category (out of 351 teams) so they are looking to push the pace too. 

UCLA has multiple shooters that should be able to shoot over the Washington zone. The Bruins will also get plenty of second chance opportunities against the zone.

Washington and UCLA are both getting to the line at a very high rate. There should be a lot of trips to the charity stripe in this one. 

I had this one at 165 points, and I'll take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City and Dallas Mavericks have both shot the ball extremely well in recent games. They should regress soon. Dallas set a franchise record with 22 made 3 pointers in their last game (22/39 from long range). They aren't likely to do that again. 

What about the pace here? In the past ten games, Oklahoma City ranks dead last in the NBA in tempo. Dallas ranks 27th out of 30. This game should be played at an extremely slow pace. 

This is a New Year's Eve game, and these holiday games have trended under in the long run pretty heavily. The tendency of players to want to be done and play through a quicker game with lower scoring second halves makes a lot of sense to me.

Marc Davis is one of the referees in this one and the under has hit in 54% of his games in his career.

The under is 29-14-2 in the Mavs last 45 after scoring 100 or more last game. The under is 9-4 in OKC's last 13 home games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both Valparaiso and Missouri State are defensive-minded teams. Though Valpo has picked up their pace some on offense, they aren't efficient on that end of the floor.

Valpo ranks 225th in offensive efficiency. The Crusaders are turning the ball over way too much. Tevonn Walker is back after a long absence, but he is less than 100 percent after dealing with mono for the last few weeks. He is their main man on offense.

Missouri State ranks 309th in overall tempo out of 351 teams in the country. The Bears definitely want to move slowly, and they'll try to control the pace here. 

Valpo is 55th in effective field goal percentage defense and Missouri State is 17th. These are two excellent defenses.

I look for a very hotly contested league game where the total stays under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats excel at slowing the game down. They are able to force their style of play onto almost every opponent. A good example of this is their last game against Appalachian State. Appalachian State runs and hadn't played a game to a pace slower than 69 possessions all year. Texas State held that game down to 63 possessions against Appalachian State.

Last year, Texas State and Coastal Carolina met twice. Those games finished with 102 and 113 points. In both games, the pace was slow.

Coastal Carolina ranks 267th in average possession length, so they like to play slowly too. Texas State's possession length average is 342nd out of 351 teams in the country.

Both of these teams have trouble taking care of the basketball. A bunch of wasted trips usually leads to lower scoring games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'm not a fan of taking an over on a number this high very often, but here I have to do it. 

Rider and Niagara are pushing the pace to an extreme level this year. While an average game plays to about 69 possessions in college basketball, I think there is a good chance this one plays to a pace of 80 possessions. That's a bunch of extra shot attempts for each team.

Niagara is 324th in defensive efficiency. They haven't been able to stop anyone all year. Rider is 202nd in defensive efficiency. 

Rider is 104th in offensive efficiency and Niagara is 91st. Both offenses are much improved from last year. Rider averaged 1.009 points per possession last year. This year they are averaging 1.071 per possession. Niagara averaged only 1.014 last year and they are up to 1.084 this year.

This should be an all out track meet. The two teams are 16th and 57th in free throws per field goal attempt too, so plenty of free throws should be expected.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vanderbilt Commodores are 320th out of 351 teams in the country in average possession length. This is a team that wants to slow the game down on a consistent basis. 

Florida is a team that plays quickly, but their defense is excellent. Florida ranked in the top 15 in defensive efficiency in the country in the last two seasons. The Gators will be very good defensively again this year.

These teams met three times last year with Vanderbilt upsetting Florida all three times. None of the games went over this posted total. The finals were 144, 134, and 134 in OT (116 in regulation). 

Both offenses have dipped significantly in efficiency compared to last season. I see no reason for this number to be this high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials play at an extremely slow pace. George Washington is 348th out of 351 in overall pace of play this year. The Colonials host St Joe's here. 

St. Joe's is playing quickly this year, but they have played a bunch of opponents who run so far this year. This is a whole different ballgame. Last year, they played to a 68-63 game against George Washington and the tempo was only 61 possessions.

St. Joe's played to a 71-58 game at a pace of 60 possessions against Princeton this year. Princeton plays slightly quicker than George Washington, and I see that game as an example of a team being able to slow down St. Joe's.

This total is a few points high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Elon Phoenix and Drexel Dragons have changed a lot since a year ago. Elon's Matt Matheny decided to slow his offense down this year. Just two years ago, Elon ranked 49th in tempo in the country. They now rank 282nd out of 351 teams.

Elon is also a good under team because they are first in the nation in least fouls committed. On offense they rank 336th at getting to the line. 

Drexel was 101st in average possession length (playing quickly) last year. The Dragons are 252nd this year. A huge pace change for Drexel as well.

Drexel is giving up only 1.03 points per possession this year compared to 1.10 points per possession last year. The Dragons are moving slower and playing much better defense.

The oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavs play at the single slowest tempo of any team in the country. Combine that with a defense that ranks first in the nation in efficiency, and you have some very low scoring games.

Virginia recently played Savannah State. Savannah State ranks first in the nation in tempo. The final total in that game was an astonishingly low 125 points. Virginia is great at controlling the flow of the game. 

Boston College plays at a relatively quick pace, but the Eagles are much better at defense now than they were last year and the year before.

The last three meetings between these teams have finished with 117, 108, and 125 points. This total is higher than any of those were posted at as well. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans host the Dallas Mavericks tonight. This total is set at such a high level because the Pelicans have been an over machine of late. Two of their last nine games have gone into OT though, and that certainly isn't a predictive trend. In time, Pelicans numbers have to get too high. I think this number is too high.

Dallas plays at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA over the last ten games. Finding a total of 212.5 with a team playing that slowly is very rare. 

This meets a system I like to use on fading hot shooting teams. Both teams have shot much higher than their season averages in their last 2 games combined. When both teams have shot that much over their average and the game is a divisional game (this one is), the under is a very strong look.

All three referees in this game are big under refs. All 3 refs have a career over/under mark of at least 53% to the under. That is as good as you'll ever see from a ref crew.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I rarely take overs at numbers this high, but I feel the need to take the over here in what I believe will be a shoot out. 

Iona has historically been a team that plays very quickly. Tim Cluess coached teams push the pace and can score efficiently. They also play very little defense. Iona's tempo numbers are a bit slower so far this year, but they have faced a bunch of teams who like to play slowly. 

Iona hasn't played a team in the top 45 in the country in offensive tempo. Niagara ranks 19th there, so this is easily the fastest team they have played against. The fastest team they have played to this point was Ohio, and their contest against them finished 93-88.

Niagara combines their extremely fast pace with an efficient offense and a defense that ranks among the bottom 25 in the country in efficiency rankings. The Purple Eagles have had an amazing 8 of their 13 games so far this year finish at 170 points or higher.

Look for back and forth action and a tight high scoring contest. Because of the spread here, overtime is always a possibility as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego Toreros are going to win with defense this year. That's the way Lamont Smith wants it to be. San Diego ranks 50th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Toreros rank a very impressive second in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense.

San Francisco is without Charles Minlend due to an injury. He's a guy who really hurt San Diego last year. The Dons aren't as good on offense this year, but they are even better than last year on defense. The Dons are 63rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

San Francisco is using nearly one second more of the shot clock on average this year, and San Diego always wants to play slowly.

Both offenses rank terribly when it comes to efficiency. San Diego is 221st and San Francisco is 254th.

This projects as a defensive battle between two teams who don't have many good scoring options. These are two teams who clearly are better on the defensive end. 

I had this one lined in the mid 120's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd rank 3rd in the country in average time of possession. That means they shoot the ball on average the third quickest out of 351 teams in the country. They are really pushing the pace. That will continue with the D'Antoni system at Marshall.

Marshall has scored 83 points or more in 10 of their 13 games this year. The Thundering Herd have scored 91 points or more in 7 of their contests. Marshall is going to push the pace and score a bunch here. If Southern Miss wants to have a chance, they'll have to score quite a few.

Marshall's defense isn't very good, and Southern Miss should be a bit improved this season. The Golden Eagles generally slow the game down, but they have already played in three games against Division One opponents where the tempo was 71 or faster. Marshall will force the tempo here.

Last year, the final was 91-76 when these two met. Two years ago, Marshall won 108-106 at home in OT. 

This total is a few points too low here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Milwaukee Bucks are third in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. The Chicago Bulls are 9th in offensive efficiency in that span. Milwaukee has routinely been putting up really big numbers. Chicago's offense has been much better because of two reason: Kris Dunn's breakout performances at point guard, and Mirotic returning and providing a big spark.

Ed Malloy is one the officials in this game, and he has been one of the best over referees in the NBA. 

In their last ten games, Milwaukee ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 1.115 points per possession.

Chicago has picked up the pace significantly with Dunn running the show and playing well. The Bulls rank fourth in the NBA in tempo in their last five games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Christmas 100% System Play CASH* The Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards meet on Christmas Day NBA action. 

The under has had great value on Christmas Day in the past ten years. Overall, the under is 32-18-2. What makes the angle stronger? Non-division games between good teams.

In games played at 9 pm EST or earlier on Christmas Day with two teams with a win percentage of 50% or better- the under is a whopping 18-0 in the last 18 games. This game fits the system. 

The Wizards offense was great last game, but in general of late they have been poor. Washington ranks 24th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last 7 games. They rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that span.

The Celtics rank in the bottom five in the NBA in tempo. They should keep the pace low. 

Christmas Day games are certainly unique, and I see this one staying under the total. We'll go with this system backed play.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Washington Wizards play on Christmas Day in Boston. That means the time they celebrate with their families is tonight after the game and early tomorrow. 

Games around Christmas have slanted pretty strongly toward the under for everyone, but the trend is 60% unders in the last 8 years for teams that are slated to play on Christmas Day. It makes sense to me. They want to get done with the game and get home. 

Even if we took that angle away, I think there is value here. The Magic are expected to be without Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon. Without those guys, this offense is a mess. Orlando is averaging a miserable 0.953 points per possession in their last five games. They have been short handed during this period. That's dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Washington ranks 27th at 0.981 points per possession during that time.

I expect a sloppy game here. This total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under*  The Akron Zips and Princeton Tigers play for the second straight day in Hawaii on a neutral court. Neutral courts are definitely a good thing for unders in the long run, and with short rest for both teams I consider it an even stronger under signal.

Princeton excels at controlling the tempo. The Tigers are going to want the pace to be slow here, and they should be able to dictate that tempo. The Tigers ranked 337th in tempo out of 351 teams last year. They rank exactly the same so far this season. 

Akron's average possession length suggests they prefer to play slower as well. 

With a total set this high, it will take much higher than average shooting numbers to get past this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies are coached by former Wichita State assistant Chris Jans. Jans is a defensive-minded coach, and his teams tend to play slower than average. 

New Mexico State has a lot of talent, and they are coming off an upset win against Illinois. The Aggies are excellent on the defensive glass. This New Mexico State team is underrated by most.

Davidson isn't the quality team they were a few years ago, but they are a solid team. They no longer run like they did in the past. They are an average paced team. Davidson shoots a ton of 3's, and New Mexico State has traditionally been excellent defending the long range jumper. They were 9th in the country in 3 point defense last year, and they are only allowing 33.3% makes this year so far as well.

This game is played on a neutral floor in Hawaii. Neutral sites are positives for the under. Shooting numbers on the average are lower, and this is a weird game for both teams with their body clocks off with the big time change.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cal Golden Bears like to run under Wyking Jones. Cal ranks 82nd in the country (out of 351) in overall tempo. 

Cal's defense isn't good. They have allowed 89 points or more on four occasions this year. Portland State will be the fastest paced team they have played so far this year.

Portland State's Barrett Peery has his team playing an uptempo pressing defense that leads to run outs and lots of drive and kick outs for 3's. Portland State is 4th in the nation in pace of play. This team is absolutely flying.

Portland State has seen 8 of their last 11 games go over this lofty total. The Vikings will push the pace.

Both of these teams are elite at offensive rebounding and getting to the line. 

It all adds up to a very high scoring affair.

The over is 8-0 in Portland State's last 8 following a win. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 non-conference games. An 11-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Idaho Vandals and UC Irvine Anteaters are both teams who win with defense first. They are also both teams who slow the game down most of the time.

UC Irvine was terrible on defense in their last game, and I expect a better performance from them here. 

Idaho and UC Irvine both have a big turnover problem on offense. A lot of empty possessions typically leads to unders. 

Recently, both of these teams have been playing to a slower pace on offense than they were at the start of the season.

This game is played at a neutral arena, and that is definitely a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Indiana's offense was dreadful in their loss to Fort Wayne. Their defense was just as bad. The Hoosiers will look to get back on track against Tennessee Tech here. 

Tennessee Tech pushes the pace to an extreme. The Golden Eagles have gotten into multiple very high scoring games this year. Not only are they very fast paced, but they also play very little defense. 

Both of these teams are good at getting to the line, and there should be plenty of trips to the charity stripe during this contest.

I think Indiana hangs a big number here and Tenn Tech contributes plenty too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* In the past ten years, games where the home team is favored by 15 points or more and the total is 139.5 or higher have gone under the total 55.1% of the time in the first 3 months of the season. Why? In blowouts there is less chance of a foul fest obviously, and the team ahead generally slows the pace down late. Also, officials are more likely to swallow their whistle.

American finished as the slowest paced team in the country in 2015 and 2016. This is a team that tries to stall as much as possible. Marquette's tempo is right around the average pace in the country. A total of 150 with one team that goes extremely slowly and one team that is medium paced is awfully high.

Marquette is certainly very efficient on offense, so they could score plenty here. They have shown they will slow down against a similar opponent to American earlier this year though. They beat Mount St Mary's 80-59 in the season opener.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Elon Phoenix were playing too fast last year. Their coach said in the offseason that they needed to slow things down to have more long-term success. They have slowed things down significantly this season. The oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted. This is one of those cases where it takes a long time for the oddsmakers to adjust a team that is under the radar like Elon.

Canisius is also playing slower this year. Canisius plays against a bunch of teams that like to push the pace, but when they can they prefer to play slowly. Canisius has played eight straight games that have stayed under this total. 

I made this number 138, so I see a significant amount of value in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns are pushing the pace more this year than they have in the last couple seasons. As Shaka Smart has gotten more of his own type of player, they are looking to play quicker.

Texas is no doubt much better on defense than offense. Still, with them pushing the pace on offense, this is an awfully low total. This is the type of total you expect in a Virginia game because of their amazing defense and extremely slow tempo.

Tennessee State isn't going to try to run,but they are likely to get behind and be forced to play quicker to try to come back. 

This isn't one I had expected to be taking, but the extreme low number gives it value.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* SMU has ran the score up on some poor teams they have played this year, but their game totals have stayed under this total in 8 of 11 games.

SMU has also shown that they want to slow the tempo of the game even more when they are playing better competition. They slowed the game to a crawl against fast paced USC in a win recently. SMU then ran with TCU and lost. I expect them to control the tempo and play slowly here.

Boise State ranks 22nd in the nation in total defense when ranked by efficiency. The Broncos are number one in defensive rebounding. SMU typically relies on offensive rebounding a lot, and they aren't likely to get as many as normal here. 

Both teams are top 30 in defense, and both offenses are worse than they were last year. A low scoring tighter game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Fort Wayne Mastadons beat Indiana last season. That was a stunner and one of the bigger upsets of the season. Indiana now hosts Fort Wayne, and they aren't going to take them lightly this time.

Fort Wayne lost quite a bit from last year, and Indiana has played better in recent games. This is a spot where I think Indiana keeps the pedal down more than normal because of the revenge factor from last year. 

Fort Wayne has played 12 games this year and 11 of them have gone over this posted total. They play quickly, and they aren't very good on defense. They are capable of getting red hot from 3 point range.

Indiana has seen six of their 11 games go over this total in regulation as well. The Hoosiers offense has been very efficient of late.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida State Seminoles have scored at least 87 points in each of their home games this year. They play a Charleston Southern team tonight that is terrible defensively. Charleston Southern allowed 110 points to Davidson in the season opener.

Florida State beat Charleston Southern 88-67 last year, and I see a very similar game this year. Florida State will push the pace in a big way. The Seminoles haven't played a game pacing below 70 possessions all season. 

Florida State has shown they are willing to run the score up, and that will likely be the case again here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions do like to play fast, but they are much better on defense than offense. Penn State ranks 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are actually playing slightly slower on offense than they did a year ago, and their defense is even better than last year.

George Mason ranked 131st in overall pace last year. They are 251st so far this year. Dave Paulsen's teams have typically liked to slow the game down, and this year's team has less offensive firepower. It makes sense that they are going slower this year.

The initial line move up on this game doesn't make sense to me. I have this as a game that stays in the 130's. Both teams turn it over quite a bit, so there should be a lot of empty trips.

Good value on this one.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The San Diego Toreros rank 300th in average possession length on offense out of 351 teams in the country. North Texas ranks 315th. These two teams will play a very slow paced game here.

North Texas is 255th in the nation in offensive efficiency. San Diego is 223rd in the nation in offensive efficiency. 

San Diego is 51st in the nation in defense. While North Texas is a poor defense, San Diego has shown that they are happy to slow the game down drastically when they get a lead. They are a big favorite here, and they should have a lead.

San Diego has played 10 games this year, and only one of them has gone over this posted total. North Texas has seen a mixed bag, but I expect San Diego to control the flow of this game.

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pacific Tigers want to play fast under Coach Damon Stoudamire. Here's their chance. UNLV is going to run at every opportunity here. UNLV ranks 6th out of 351 in the nation in average possession length. Marvin Menzies has this talented Runnin' Rebels team pushing tempo at every chance.

Pacific has run with three opponents this year. They played an 89-80 game against Stanford. They played an 89-74 game against Nevada. They played a 86-72 game against Wyoming. 

I expect UNLV to get the lead here and force Pacific to play from behind. 

UNLV and Pacific both rank in the top 30 in the country in free throw attempts per possession this year. Lots of trips to the charity stripe should come in this one.

UNLV has played 8 of their 10 games over this total. I expect another one over the number.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Austin Rivers is averaging 14.5 points per game for the year, and since Blake Griffin went out, Rivers had consistently been one of the team's top scorers. Rivers was out last night and the offense looked disjointed. Danilo Gallinari is still out with an injury as well. The Clippers don't have a go to guy on offense.

Miami has played at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last four games. Miami is 19-9 to the under so far this year, and I don't think oddsmakers have caught on to their slower tempo just yet.

Brian Forte is a referee in this one, and he is one of the strongest under refs in the league.

This one has gotten pushed up to an awfully high level considering both teams are dealing with key injuries and the tempo should be very slow.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks will look to push the tempo whenever they can this season. Oregon isn't the same caliber of team they were last year, and that's largely because they don't have the shot blockers on defense that they had a year ago. 

Fresno State ranked 167th in the country in offensive efficiency last year. They are 57th so far this year. They were 60th in defensive efficiency last year, and they are 91st this year on defense.

Fresno State has played a bunch of teams that walk the ball up the floor this year, and the Bulldogs haven't had as many high scoring games as you might expect because of that. When they played two fast teams (Arkansas and Long Beach State), the scores were 83-75 and 106-70. Oregon won't play as fast as those two, but they will play quickly.

I think this game gets into the mid 150's as both offenses have quite a bit of success.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMass Minutemen are a completely different team this year under first year head coach Matt McCall. McCall has always wanted his teams to slow the game down and win with good defense. Last year, UMass was a team that pushed the tempo to an extreme. That's definitely no longer the case.

Georgia tends to play to the pace of their opponent under Coach Fox. The Bulldogs have an opponent who wants to play slowly here, and that's how I assume they will play in this one. They have a great big man in Yante Maten, and they'll look to play through him here.

UMass ranks 224th in offensive efficiency. The Minutemen have struggled to get good looks, and they often rely on poor shots late in the clock.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA TGIF Total Domination* The Washington Wizards are a different team with John Wall at the point. Washington had to slow down their pace without him in the lineup. With him, they obviously like to push because of Wall's elite speed. 

The Los Angeles Clippers defense has been terrible in the past month. This team is giving up way too many open looks, and the Wizards have the shooters to make them pay.

The last four meetings between these two teams have finished at: 223 points, 227 points, 257 points, and 225 points. 

The Clippers still have a league average or better offense, but their defense is near the bottom of the league. 

Washington has seen 7 of their last 8 stay under the total, which has moved this number down to a nice value. With Wall back, their style of play should change.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Wisconsin is a team I always lean toward the under with. The Badgers can control the pace as well as anyone in the nation. Their offense isn't very good this year either. They rely far too much on Ethan Happ to do everything. They don't have good guard play.

Western Kentucky prefers a slow paced game as well, and the Hilltoppers have had some recent high scoring games against opponents who really like to run, which has given us line value on the under here.

Wisconsin is favored, and they are good at taking the air out of the ball if they have the lead late. This number is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Nebraska Omaha Mavericks always rank near the very top of the tempo charts at the end of the year in college hoops. Omaha is playing fast again this year. This is a relatively high total, but Omaha has had 159 points or more in 7 of their 11 games so far this year.

What about Arkansas State? They have a first year coach who talked about wanting to push the pace in the preseason. They are pushing it. Arkansas State is 57th out of 351 teams in the country in pace of play. 

The tempo here will be very high. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25% of teams in the country in defensive efficiency as well, so there is no reason to expect good defense to be played here. 

Take the over in this one. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* Two teams that are far better on defense than on offense. They are also two teams who prefer to play at a slow pace. 

Little Rock has played 5 of their 8 games against Division One opponents below this number in regulation. Bradley has played 6 of their 8 games against Division One opponents below this total. They haven't played a game all year that finished higher than 140 points. 

Bradley's defense is 41st in the country in adjusted efficiency. Their offense is 267th. Little Rock is a miserable 344th in offensive efficiency. 

With both teams having a big advantage on defense and the tempo of the game staying slow, it will take a rare good shooting effort from these two to send it over. It could happen, but I really like the value here on the under.

I had this lined at 121 points.

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes host the San Diego Toreros tonight. San Diego ranks 301st in the nation in average possession length, which means they really slow the tempo down. San Diego is significantly better on defense than offense. San Diego is 239th in offensive efficiency in the country. They are 65th in defensive efficiency.

Colorado is also slightly better on defense than offense. The Buffaloes have played to the pace of their opponents so far this year. Most of their opponents have been quick paced teams, which has inflated this number a bit.

Both teams turn the ball over at a high rate, which helps the under here as well since neither team is expected to be pressing. Those turnovers in the halfcourt simply waste time.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks rank 12th in the nation in pace of play. They are pushing the pace at every chance. Their new head coach learned under Roy Williams, and we all know the Tar Heels constantly push the tempo.

LSU is playing at an average pace, but they are torching the nets on offense. LSU ranks 7th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They are first in the country in two point field goal percentage offense at an amazing 63.1%. UNC Wilmington ranks 340th in points per possession allowed, so they are almost as bad as anyone in the country on defense. 

Of UNC Wilmington's games this year, only one of them hasn't gone over this total. LSU has had totals of 178 and 191 in two of their games so they are fully capable.

Despite playing almost all slow paced opponents, LSU's games are averaging just over 161 points. UNC Wilmington will keep the tempo moving, and that should lead to a high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears rank 261st in offensive pace (average possession length) out of 351 teams. Oral Roberts ranks 306th. Both teams want to play slowly.

Missouri State ranks number 24 in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Oral Roberts is 313th in offensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles of Oral Roberts only managed 60 points in a loss to Southern Nazarene in their last game. This is a bad team that struggles in a big way to score.

Missouri State has shown on multiple occasions that they are happy to slow the game down once they have a lead, and they should be playing from in front here.

Take the under.