Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star Play Under* The Pacific Tigers host San Francisco in a West Coast Conference matchup on Saturday night. 

Pacific has had a lot of terrible offensive performances in the last few weeks. The Tigers have scored 52 points or less in three of their last nine games. The Tigers play at a very slow pace, and they are good at controlling the tempo against just about everyone. 

San Francisco just had a high scoring game against BYU that was misleading. The game was played to a very slow pace of just 62 possessions, but both teams were extremely efficient on offense. Barcello for BYU was 7/7 from 3 point range in that game. Pacific's offense is far weaker than BYU's, and they play much slower as well.

I think this total is too high by several points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMKC Kangaroos are the best under team in the Summit League. With Billy Donlon as their head coach, this team is doing a fantastic job controlling the tempo. This offense is a weak one, but their defense is easily best in the Summit League. They are giving up only 0.938 points per possession in league play.

South Dakota State won last night's game easily, but the pace was still slow and it stayed far under the total. This game is likely to be similar. I do think it will be higher than last night, but we have quite a bit of room to work here. 

Both of these teams are excellent defensive rebounding teams, which is a big plus for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Wizards rank first in the NBA in tempo. The Minnesota Timberwolves have played much faster in their first two games since new coach Chris Finch took over. He is a guy who really wants to see the team space out the floor and move quickly. Karl Anthony Towns will get plenty of chances to show himself as an offensive playmaker in this system.

Washington isn't a good defensive team. The Wizards do have several very athletic players who can get to the basket or create open looks from the outside for their teammates. This Minnesota defense is a bottom five defense in the NBA.

This is a really high total, but I believe this number is still too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams met earlier this year and the final total was 166 points. Tennessee State has picked up their tempo in a significant way over the last few weeks. 

Eastern Kentucky is the fastest paced team in this league, and it isn't even close. With their full court pressure they can create a bunch of quick scoring opportunities. 

The pace of this game should be fast enough that it will take some ugly shooting numbers to stay under this number.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* High Point and USC Upstate have had five games in the last two seasons. None of them have finished with a total higher than 132 points. 

High Point and USC Upstate are both relatively slow paced teams. Both are also inefficient on offense. They have consistently been low scoring and sloppy in their games against each other.

This is a Big South Tournament game. The loser of this game goes home and their season is over. That kind of situation has tended to lean toward the under in the long run since the game usually slows down a bit and the defenses work very hard in such a big game for them.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies are the best defense in the Big East. UConn has elite shot blockers and they will change the game here. Marquette was only able to put up 54 at home against UConn earlier this year (65-54 game). 

UConn prefers a slow pace as does Marquette. The first game between these two was played to only 60 possessions. This one is likely to be a little faster than that, but I expect it to be played in the halfcourt most of the time.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wisconsin has had two games in the Big Ten all season go over this number. The Badgers are excellent at controlling the pace of play. They aren't very good on offense either. This team has some identity problems on the offensive end. They simply don't have many go to guys and they don't have the ability to get inside the paint often at all.

Illinois played without star Ayo Dosunmu in their last game and most believe he will miss this game or be very limited. The Fighting Illini offense is definitely far different without him. It would likely slow their pace as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The under has been a great play in Clemson's games as a home favorite in the past. Brad Brownell's teams don't tend to run up the score, and if they do it is usually by clamping down on defense rather than pushing the pace and scoring a huge number.

Miami is extremely limited offensively right now. The Hurricanes have suffered a bunch of injuries and some key players have left the team as well. I don't expect them to have much luck against this Clemson defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* DePaul has been without Javon Liberty Freeman for the last three games. In two of those three games they have scored 52 and 53 points. DePaul is actually a pretty good team defensively, but their offense has been so inefficient this year that it has been an ugly season.

Georgetown is much better defensively this year than they were a year ago. The Hoyas offense is weak without Mac McClung. This Hoyas team relies on too many low percentage long range jumpers.

The move up in this total makes me take the under based on how far this is from my number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs won 67-64 over UNLV on Wednesday night. That game was played to a very slow pace of just 60 possessions. Both teams actually shot considerably better than their season averages, and the game still finished at 131 points. 

There are a couple key things that will be tough to replicate for these offenses from the first game. Both offenses got a lot of offensive rebounds. These two teams are usually very good on the defensive boards (both around 25% offensive rebounds allowed). In Wednesday's game they allowed 35.1% and 33.3% offensive rebounds. Also the two teams turned the ball over at 11.7% And 10.0%. For the season these two teams have turned it over at 19.4% and 21.7%. Expect some more wasted possessions in this game.

The tempo should stay slow and the efficiencies should be lower on the offensive end.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* In the CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners last 14 games, their highest posted point total has been 136.5 points. This one sits four points above that total, and to me this is just too high of a number for a game involving Bakersfield.

This is a Bakersfield team that has seen 7 of their last 14 games finish at 119 points or fewer. They have very rarely had very high scoring games this year. Now, they are without star big man Stith and he is a big loss on the offensive glass and scoring down low for this team. 

CSU Northridge is a fast paced team and they'll try to push the pace here. Bakersfield has been good at slowing things down this year though. Bakersfield is easily slowest in tempo in the Big West. 

Northridge isn't very efficient on offense. Bakersfield's Taze Moore missed last weekend's games due to an illness. He will likely be back here but he might not be 100 percent. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars aren't as efficient on offense as they were a year ago. They are much better on defense though. They rank 23rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. They were 60th a year ago. They were 7th in offensive efficiency last year, but they are 32nd this year.

The San Francisco Dons rely heavily on the 3 point shot. BYU has defended the long jumpers well. San Francisco very rarely gets to the line, and they don't get many second chance opportunities either. 

San Francisco has gradually slowed their pace of play through the year. BYU is clearly playing slower than a year ago as well.

The first meeting between these two finished at 135 after a bunch of fouling and late 3's. That game was going to finish much lower without the rush of points at the end of the contest in the foul fest spread.

I had this game lined several points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Morehead State Eagles will finish number two in the Ohio Valley Conference this year. They do still play this game and one more contest, but they are locked into their spot. 

Tennessee State is a very weak team this year. They have decided at the end of the season to really push the tempo. Tennessee State has played in six straight games that have played to a pace of 71 possessions or faster. That includes their game against Morehead State February 11 that finished 79-66. 

Morehead State is a great offensive rebounding team, and Tennessee State gives up a lot of second chance points. Tennessee State's major strength is forcing turnovers and getting quick scores off those turnovers. Morehead State's one weakness is their turnover problems on offense. 

These teams rank second and third in the conference in amount of free throws taken. This is an extremely low total given the situation (not much to play for) and the pace the first game was played to.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors toyed with playing faster earlier this year, but they have gone back to their old style of slowing things down and winning the low scoring games with their unique zone defense. Merrimack's last six games have finished at 136 points or lower. That includes two games against ultra fast paced Bryant. 

St. Francis NY is definitely weak defensive team, but Merrimack has struggled with offensive efficiency consistently. The Warriors rank 332nd in the country in offensive efficiency. They don't shoot well from the outside, and they very rarely get second chance points. 

St. Francis NY relies on getting inside the paint a lot, and that is very hard to do against this Merrimack zone defense.

The two meetings between these two last year finished at 110 and 111 points. This one should be higher than those games, but this total is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Timberwolves have a new coach in Chris Finch. Finch has been around the NBA quite a bit and everywhere he has gone he has wanted to push the tempo. In Finch's first game as head coach the Timberwolves played their contest against Milwaukee to 106 possessions (3rd fastest paced game of the year), so it was an initial sign that the faster pace is already showing up. Look for that to continue. 

Minnesota has a bottom 8 or 9 defense in the NBA though, and the Chicago Bulls offense has been solid with LaVine and White really playing well. Chicago has potential to put up a big number here against this Wolves defense.

Chicago ranks fourth in the NBA in pace for the year overall, and I don't see them trying to slow this game down. 

I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted the Minnesota total enough based on their new style of play. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns are playing at the slowest pace in the NBA in their past ten games. Portland is playing at the 23rd fastest pace, so they are playing slowly as well. This is an extremely high total for a game that should be played at a slow pace.

Phoenix has been on fire from long distance. The Suns are a combined 46/85 (54.1%) from 3 point range in their last two games. This is an above average jump shooting team, but regression has to come for them from 3 point range. No team can shoot like this from 3 point range for too long. Portland also ranks 12th in the NBA in 3 point FG% defense.

Portland shoots a bunch of three pointers and Phoenix ranks 3rd in the league in 3 point defense. 

This total is so high because their recent games have been so high. The number is inflated a bit because of those high shooting percentages.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Alcorn State has seen 6 of their last 7 games finish below this posted total. This team lost its top two offensive players from last year and they are struggling to find consistent shooting from anyone on the outside. 

Alabama A&M is one of the worst offenses in the country. In fact, they currently rank 346th in offensive efficiency according to KenPom. 

These two teams rank 8th and 9th out of 10 teams in the SWAC in pace. 

Look for a sloppy game with a lot of tough jumpers. Both of these teams have been taking too many mid range jumpers that are low percentage shots.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Illinois Salukis rank last in the Missouri Valley Conference in offensive efficiency. The Salukis have really missed Marcus Domask (out with an injury) the last few weeks. Domask is considered questionable here, but if he does play he will be less than 100 percent and wouldn't be expected to play a bunch of minutes.

Southern Illinois started the year playing weak defense, but their head coach is a defensive minded coach and this team has gotten better on defense of late. The Salukis have been better at home defensively as well.

Valparaiso has been a great under team on the road. They have played 13 road games, and 8 of them have finished at 129 points or fewer. They are an above average defense and a subpar offensive team.

The pace should be slow here and I expect this one to be pretty low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Last night's game between these two finished at 137 points, but the pace was just 58 possessions. Both teams shot far better than you would expect. 

Bakersfield was without leading scorer Taze Moore due to an illness. He is questionable tonight. Bakersfield will try hard to slow this game down again here.

UCSB has been much better on defense at home. The Gauchos are also happy to play at a slow pace.

I don't expect these teams to shoot as well as they did last night.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I had the over last night in this matchup, and I'm back on the over in this game. Last night's game finished at 177 points. The pace was played to an extremely fast 88 possessions. The teams didn't even shoot the ball very well, but they still scored 177 points.

Both of these teams are fouling machines, and both are very good at getting to the free throw line. They are both above average on the shooting percentages from the line as well.

These two teams both love to use full court pressure and speed up the game. I expect a fast pace again here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Golden Grizzlies beat Milwaukee yesterday 85-81. The tempo was quick and both teams got a lot of good looks in that game.

In Oakland's last nine games, only one of them have finished below 152 points. Milwaukee has been consistently very high as well. Five of Milwaukee's last six games have finished at 159 points or higher.

Both teams are far better at offense than defense and the tempo should stay quick here. Both teams have disappointed during the season as well and that can lead to higher scoring games late in the regular season.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Sacred Heart Pioneers have been shooting the ball well on the road. They are up against a St. Francis (NY) team that ranks 344th in the country according to Ken Pom in defensive efficiency. Sacred Heart shouldn't have any trouble getting open looks in this game.

St. Francis is pushing the pace a lot this season. The Terriers rank 31st in the nation in tempo. They foul a lot as well, and Sacred Heart shoots free throws well. St. Francis also shoots it well from the line. 

I wouldn't expect either team to try to slow the game down here. This should be a close game which has real potential for overtime a late foul fest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Which team had the worst defense in the SEC last year? It was Georgia. The team with the worst defense in league play again this year is the Georgia Bulldogs. Tom Crean's team can push the pace and score, but their defense has been really weak. How bad has it been? They have played seven games on the road this year. Their opponents have reached 83 points or more in six of those seven games. They have allowed 86 points or more in five of the seven. 

Florida put up 92 on Georgia on the road earlier this year. The Gators haven't been great on offense their last couple games, but they should look a lot better on offense against this weak defense.

Florida and Georgia have both really struggled on the defensive glass this year. Expect a lot of second chance points in this game. Both of these teams have been using some full court pressure and trying to score in transition. 

The pace should be quick here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Kansas has improved immensely on defense. The Jayhawks are also far weaker on offense than they have been in recent seasons. They don't get to the line very often, and they don't shoot it well from beyond the arc. 

The Jayhawks have been excellent on defense of late. Kansas hasn't allowed more than 0.86 points per possession in any of their last four games. 

Texas Tech is always strong defensively with Chris Beard as their head coach. The Red Raiders rank last in the Big 12 in overall tempo. Thy prefer a lower scoring game.

Bill Self recently said he really likes this defense and they can win those low scoring contests. They have done exactly that in their last two games. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The season long statistics for these two teams suggest a total in this range, but both teams have picked up the pace drastically in recent games. I believe this total is too low.

Kentucky has an average tempo of 67.7 possessions per game on the year. Kentucky has played six games in a row to a pace of 72 possessions or more though. The Wildcats have played some fast paced foes during that time, but they are also pushing things much more.

Tennessee has had 3 out of their 4 fastest paced games in the last two weeks. The Volunteers haven't been afraid to run of late.

These two teams just played on February 6th and the final was 82-71. There were 76 possessions in that game. There weren't a bunch of fouls. It was just a fast tempo.

I think the tempo will be slower than 76 here, but I do think the oddsmakers are not adjusting enough for the recent trends of these two teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Monmouth Hawks play at the fastest pace of any team in the MAAC. Rick Pitino's Iona Gaels have made a commitment to playing faster in their last few games. Iona has averaged nearly 72 possessions per game in their last four contests.

Iona has one of the better offenses in the MAAC. The Gaels have several different quality scoring options.

Monmouth ranks third in the MAAC in offensive efficiency so far this year.

Both of these teams excel at getting to the free throw line. Both teams have fouled a bunch all year. I would expect a lot of points coming from the charity stripe in this game. 

These two teams are more than capable of getting quick scores off their defensive pressure.

I expect a very quick pace here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams are terrible. It is very late in their season and they might as well play to have some fun and pick up the tempo. Both of these teams have done exactly that in recent weeks. 

Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State rank 3rd and 4th in the OVC in tempo. This is a very low total for a game with the expected tempo that this one has. The first game between these two had a tempo of 74 possessions. That game got to 145 points. I see something similar in this game. 

Tennessee State has particularly picked up the pace in recent games. They have forced the tempo against all types of opponents including Morehead State in recent contests. 

These late season games between two bad teams have been good to the over in recent years.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between BYU and Pacific at BYU was a double overtime game. At the end of regulation the score was 64-64. The shooting numbers in that game were actually slightly above season averages for both teams. 

Pacific is allowing less than 0.9 points per possession at home. The Tigers have been elite on defense on their home court against everyone. That includes a game where they made the Gonzaga offense struggle for much of the game. Pacific will work hard to try to slow the pace down here as well.

BYU is much worse offensively this year, and they are much better on defense than they were a year ago. The Cougars aren't pushing the tempo nearly as much this year either.

Look for a hard fought battle here all the way. Both teams are good on the defensive glass and that is important with a lower total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves have four players who are still suspended right now. These guys account for 57 percent of the team's scoring and 47 percent of their rebounds. The group of four players are in trouble off the court.

Bradley isn't a very good offense to begin with, and without their top three scorers and another key contributor, this is an offense that is likely to continue to struggle badly. Illinois State plays a zone defense a lot, and Bradley has been really weak against zone defenses even with their best players.

Illinois State has scored 62 points or less in 4 of their last 8 games. The RedBirds offense has been particularly bad on the road this season. 

Both of these teams do a great job defending without fouling. I wouldn't expect to see many trips to the line unless we are unfortunate and catch a referee crew looking for a ref show here.

Bradley is still pretty good on defense and they are likely to slow their pace down when they are so shorthanded.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos and Utah State Aggies are part of the fight for the top of the Mountain West Conference. This is a huge game for both teams. 

Utah State has been amazing defensively this year. They rate 11th in the nation in defensive efficiency and they are easily first in the Mountain West in defensive efficiency. 

Boise State defense is much improved from a year ago as well. 

Utah State ranks third in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. Boise State ranks 11th in this same statistic. 

Both teams also do a good job defending without fouling. 

Late in the season in these key games between two teams with good records the under has been the play in the past several years. This game means a lot to both teams and I think the pace slows down a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas Jayhawks have improved a lot on the defensive end as the season has moved along. Even Bill Self, who generally is pretty reserved in his talk about his team, said this week he has been extremely pleased with his team's progress on defense. 

Kansas has gone through a lot of scoring droughts this year, but their defense is leading the way now. The Jayhawks have the length advantage against Kansas State. Kansas State could only muster 51 points in the first showing between these two. I don't think they'll score a whole lot more than that here.

Kansas State has been able to slow down Kansas at home in these rivalry games the last few years. The Wildcats tempo has gradually gotten slower of late. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers host the Houston Rockets tonight. This isn't the same Houston Rockets team we have seen in recent seasons. This is now a team that is extremely inefficient on offense. In fact, Houston is dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games played. 

Philadelphia's instant offense in Shake Milton is gone for tonight's game. Milton is weak defensively and strong offensively. The players who get his minutes are an upgrade defensively and a downgrade on offense.

This is an awfully high total for a game that should be played at about an average tempo, especially considering we have one team who is very inefficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Santa Clara has played six games at home against Division One opponents. They have all stayed at 129 points or lower. That includes their games against high scoring teams like Colorado State and Nicholls State. 

Santa Clara is coming off a COVID pause. They aren't likely to be terribly crisp on the offensive end after missing nearly a month between games. 

Loyola Marymount has been a better under team on the road this year as well. 

The first game between these two went over the total by 8.5 points, but there were 51 free throws in that game and the teams shot the free throws really well in that one. 

Both teams are good on the defensive glass, so second chance opportunities should be at a minimum in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans have been terrible on offense this year, and they have been even worse on offense since coming back from their COVID pause a few games ago. 

Michigan State has scored 62 points or less in five of their last seven games. They are settling for too many bad shots, and there aren't many consistent outside shooters on this team.

Purdue won 55-54 at East Lansing a few weeks ago. The Boilermakers slowed the pace down in that game, and I think they'll do the same here. 

Both of these teams have faced a lot of elite offenses. These defenses are a little better than their numbers look. 

Purdue usually takes advantage of teams on the offensive glass, but Michigan State does rebound it well defensively. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams met on February 6th and Chattanooga pulled off the upset at East Tennessee State. This is a huge game in the SoCon with both teams still having at least a chance at a league title. 

These are the slowest and second slowest teams in the SoCon in terms of tempo. The first game was played to 61 possessions. Both teams shot much better than normal and it still stayed under this total by a couple points. 

This game means even more as we are later in the season and these two teams know what is at stake. 

Neither of these teams give up many second chance points. Both of them are good at defending without fouling as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins have seen their offense struggle in recent weeks. Four of their last five games have finished with 121 points or less. None of them have gone over 138 points. 

The first game between Maryland and Minnesota finished 63-49 Maryland in an upset at Minnesota. The Golden Gophers have slowed their pace down quite a bit in Big Ten play, and Maryland is far more comfortable playing at a slower tempo.

The Terrapins have had 8 of their 13 Big Ten games finish at 134 or lower. Minnesota has been a bad road team in recent seasons and their offensive efficiency in Big Ten road games has been poor.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Bradley has their top three players, the three leading scorers on their team, suspended for this contest. They were out yesterday as well. Bradley was only able to put up 58 points in yesterday's contest.

Missouri State scored 80 yesterday and the game went over the total. The Bears went a whopping 14/23 from 3 point range yesterday though. That is awfully hard to replicate. Look for Missouri State's shooting numbers to come down toward normal in this game. 

Bradley will want to slow the pace down here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Dixie State Trail Blazers really push the pace. They rank 8th in the nation in tempo. Utah Valley and Dixie State played a game last night that finished at a ridiculously fast 85 possessions. The shooting numbers were bad or else that game would have been higher than 159 points. 

Utah Valley connected on only 13/30 from the free throw line last night. While they aren't a good free throw shooting team, I would expect them to be better than that today. They should get to the line a lot since Dixie State fouls a bout as much as anyone in the country. 

Utah Valley has a big height advantage here. Dixie State is giving up a ton of layups and dunks this year. Utah Valley will get easy looks inside and second chance opportunities if they miss.

Dixie State turns turnovers into quick points in transition and Utah Valley is poor in transition defense.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The first time these two met earlier this year the final was 58-49. While I don't think this game will be that low scoring, I do think it will be low scoring yet again. 

Pacific and Loyola Marymount both do a great job at limiting opponents to one shot opportunity. That is important when taking a lower under. 

Both teams rank in the top 90 in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are #175 and #176 in offensive efficiency.

Pacific has done a great job forcing their slow paced games on their opponents. Look for that to continue here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are slowing getting a bit healthier again. They have played faster in recent games. Their defense has gotten much worse this year as compared to a year ago. 

Tennessee Tech is an awful 2-19. The Golden Eagles have gradually sped up their pace of play here as the season has progressed. 

Neither of these teams has much to play for now, and these games later in the season between two bad teams have trended to the over in the long run.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a big game in the SoCon. Both Wofford and East Tennessee State were tied for first in the league in the loss column before being upset in their last game. The loser of this game will be out of the race for the SoCon title, while the winner of this one still has a chance if they finish the season strong.

East Tennessee State started out league play blazing hot from the floor, but they take a lot of difficult shots and those haven't been falling as much lately. The Bucs had a hard time scoring the first time around against Wofford and I think they will struggle again here.

Wofford plays at a very slow pace. The Terriers face a tough defensive team here in E Tenn State. 

These two teams both love to play slowly and the first meeting was just 60 possessions. Another slow paced tight game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and UT Arlington Mavericks meet for a second time in three days. These two teams have played three straight contests against each other that have stayed under this total in regulation. 

Both of these teams have been playing these back to backs in the Sun Belt, and both teams have consistently been playing at a slower pace in their second game than they did in the first. They are regularly playing at three or four possessions slower than they did in the first game. Thursday's game was 64 possessions. I think this will be 62 or 63.

The two teams would need to shoot it well to get past the total at that tempo. Neither team gets to the line much.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Michael Nuga is out for Kent State and he was easily the team's best offensive rating player according to Ken Pom. Kent State will score quite a few here, but it does limit their upside some. 

Northern Illinois is a dreadful offensive team. The Huskies are coming off a long COVID pause and that has led to bad offensive performances from many teams in the past month. Northern Illinois plays slowly, and they do at least put in a good effort on the defensive end.

This line is several points above my projection for this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Morgan State Bears and Norfolk State Spartans have met twice this year and both games went well over this total. With the line move down, I have to back the over here. These two teams both get to the line a lot and both teams foul a lot. This is a game that has foul fest potential and overtime potential.

I had this one projected at 152.5. Look for this one to get over the posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a very low total, but it is this low for a reason. These two teams are excellent on the defensive end, and both of the teams like to slow down the tempo and play in the half court.

UC Irvine has actually played a whopping six straight games that have gone under this very low posted total. Four of those games finished at 119 points or lower. 

UC Riverside was only able to score 53 and 59 points in their two games against UC Irvine last year.

The Highlanders foul the least of any team in the conference, and that makes them a nice under team as well.

Both of these teams are great on the defensive glass. That is important especially with a total set this low.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* My projected totals number is lower than this total even without taking into consideration the spot. Iona last played a game on December 23. That is the longest COVID pause so far this year.

Rick Pitino was asked what he expected in this game. He said there will likely be a lot of turnovers and missed shots. 

That is likely to prove to be true here. Both teams really struggle to take care of the ball, and neither team is efficient on offense. 

Look for a sloppy game all the way around here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are a little more efficient on offense this year than they were a year ago. They are turning the ball over a bit less. They are also getting higher quality looks very close to the basket this year. On the other side of the floor, the Lumberjacks aren't quite as dominant on defense as they were a year ago.

SF Austin has seen every game inside the Southland get to at least 146 points. I think this one will as well.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi isn't a good offense, but they are likely to be down pretty big and will be able to score more late in this one. SF Austin has kept the pace fast even late in the game when they are ahead by margin this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sam Houston State Bearkats have been pretty fortunate on the offensive end so far this year. This is a team that doesn't get good looks close to the hoop. If the three ball and the long twos are falling, they can pour in the points. If they aren't, this team isn't very efficient on offense. Their offensive numbers are much better than last year right now, and I think they will dip some before the end of the season.

SE Louisiana might be the worst offense in the Southland Conference. This is a team that is almost completely reliant on getting to the free throw line. They aren't very good from the line either at 65.9%. 

SE Louisiana has drastically slowed their tempo this year. The first game between these two was just 122 points combined.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars offense has been struggling of late. They scored only 18 points in the second half in a home loss to Seton Hall. 

Providence has been better defensively at home, and the Friars defense typically rounds into form under Ed Cooley by the end of the season. 

UConn is the best defensive team in the Big East. They have a bunch of shot blockers on the inside, and they should make Providence take a lot of long contested jumpers. Duke is a good shooter for Providence, but they lack shooting depth.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Elon Phoenix are averaging a paltry 0.822 points per possession in CAA play. They have shot the ball terribly. This isn't going to be a great offensive team, but they aren't going to finish this bad either. Elon still has some pretty good outside shooters on this roster. The Phoenix were 9-35 from long range in last week's loss to James Madison. That game was played at a very fast pace and still got to 135 points despite the ugly shooting numbers.

James Madison is great at getting to the line, and Elon fouls a bunch. Mark Byington is a good coach for James Madison and in his first year this team is already showing they can take advantage of a team's weaknesses. Elon has no height and James Madison got a bunch of quick second chance opportunities and was able to get good looks from the floor in that first game. 

The tempo should be pretty fast again here, and I expect better shooting numbers. This number is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Quinnipiac was red hot from long range on Sunday. They knocked down 11/22 from 3 point range and got ahead 40-24 at halftime of Sunday's contest at Fairfield. Quinnipiac shoots 30.6% from 3 point range on the year, so I wouldn't expect a repeat performance of that. 

Fairfield had to get out of their typical stall ball style thanks to that big deficit at halftime, and that led to a lot of points being scored late in Sunday's game. 

The total has jumped four points here, and that gives me value on the under. Fairfield is a very slow paced team that is inefficient on offense. Quinnipiac rates as the top ranked team in the MAAC in defensive efficiency. 

All of Quinnipiac's back to back games have shown a pattern so far this year. The second game has a much lower tempo than the first game. If that continues here, there will have to be some very good shooting percentages to get past this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags return from a COVID pause to take on Quinnipiac here in a MAAC contest.

Quinnipiac ranks first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. I don't think their defense is amazing, but it is very good and much improved from a year ago. Fairfield has one of the worst offenses in the country, and off a COVID pause I don't think they'll score many points here.

Quinnipiac lost their star power on offense from a year ago, and the Bobcats have been extremely inefficient on offense this year.

Six of Quinnipiac's 10 games have finished below this very low total. Fairfield has seen 8 of 15 games stay below this total as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coppin State Eagles have played eight MEAC league contests so far this year. The lowest scoring game out of those eight has finished at 152 points. 

Coppin State plays at the single fastest pace of any team in the country. They aren't efficient on offense overall, but they are very good at getting to the line. Norfolk State commits a bunch of fouls, and Coppin State should be at the line a lot again here. Coppin State scored 81 points in each of the first two meetings between these teams this year. 

Norfolk State has the best offense in the MEAC. The Spartans have a bunch of good shooters on the floor at all times, and I think they'll shoot the ball better than they did in the road games they played against Coppin State.

The pace will be there. I think the trips to the charity stripe help this one get past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Hampton returns from a COVID pause for a game at home here against High Point. 

Hampton isn't even close to the same team they were a year ago. A year ago they had two star scorers in Marrow and Stanley. Now, they are a subpar offense. The Pirates also had a bottom five defense in the nation last year. They aren't good on defense this year, but they are much better than a year ago. They have a couple great shot blockers. 

High Point has been much improved on defense this year, and they are also slowing the tempo down more than they did a year ago. 

Hampton allowed 1.15 points per possession in league play last year. They are giving up 1.02 points per possession this year. High Point allowed 1.095 points per possession last year, but they are allowing only 1.033 points per possession this year. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams combined for 120 points last night in a game with 77 possessions. It was the worst shooting night for South Dakota State in more than two years. The Jackrabbits offense has been the best in the Summit League in the long run, and I would expect them to bounce back here.

If we just take season averages and apply it to yesterday's contest the expected final score would have topped 160 points. Before yesterday, the last three times they had played every game had gotten to 165 points or more.

South Dakota is solid offensively as well, and for a game involving two good Summit League offenses this is a low total.

These teams are capable of filling it up. I expect regression to the mean in a positive way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Last night's game between these two teams went over the total, and I think this one does as well.

The Summit League is well known for terrible defense and a bunch of games that go over the total. These may be the two worst defenses in the league. 

Both teams foul a bunch and a late foul fest is likely if the game is close at all. Both teams have really picked up their tempo of late too, so we can expect a lot of transition opportunities.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Three times these two teams have played this year. All three games have gone under this total by more than one possession. 

Texas State seems to have a combination that is very tough for Little Rock's offense. Texas State is great at forcing turnovers and Little Rock really struggles to take care of the basketball. Also, Texas State has length inside and does a good job keeping Little Rock from penetrating to the basket.

Texas State rarely gets to the line, and they often settle for too many long two point jumpers. That isn't a high percentage shot especially in current basketball. 

I think this stays under again.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The East Tennessee State Bucs have been shooting lights out in SoCon play thus far. This East Tennessee State team is fully expected to be one of the best defenses in the league, but this offense is outperforming expectations in a big way now. I think they will see their shooting percentages level off over time. The defense should continue to be very good. 

Chattanooga very rarely gets to the line, and the Mocs are excellent on the defensive glass. That is important in a game like this. The Mocs have played a very weak slate of defenses so far this year, and I think they'll struggle to get open looks here. 

Both of these teams have faced far tougher offenses than than they have defenses on the season as a whole. Because of recency bias we have an East Tennessee State total that is several points too high.

East Tennessee State has played their last two games to only 60 possessions. The pace should be slow here too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri State Bears have a great inside game with Gaige Prim leading the way. The Bears rank first in the Missouri Valley Conference in overall tempo. 

Illinois State moves quickly on offense as well. Dan Muller's team likes to get up quick looks in transition and transition defense has been an issue for Missouri State.

The MVC is full of teams who want to slow the game down and have a low scoring game. These are two exceptions. That gives us some line value on this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers very rarely play a game that goes over this total. Wisconsin and Illinois played a game last year that got to 141 points with above average shooting. Both teams are better on defense this year than they were a year ago. A couple years ago, both games stayed well under this total. 

Illinois relies on getting inside and getting to the line. This Wisconsin defense is excellent in the paint, and they don't foul very much at all.

Wisconsin's offense has struggled with shooting woes away from home this season.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates have improved defensively through the year almost every single season under Kevin Willard. Seton Hall has found a great shot blocker in Ike Obiagu, and he changes the game in a big way on the defensive end.

UConn ranks as the top defense in the Big East in terms of efficiency. UConn has been excellent in the paint on defense this year. It is very hard to get to the basket against this team. Seton Hall isn't a great outside shooting team.

The tempo should be slow here as both teams tend to prefer to play a half court style game. 

Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams met on a neutral floor earlier this year. The final was 91-78 (169 points). That one sailed over the total despite South Dakota State missing Douglas Wilson in that game. 

The last three games between these two teams have all gotten to at least 165 points. The initial line move in the market is to the under, and I disagree with that move.

This is a league where over bettors have done really well in the past few seasons. No one plays much defense in the Summit League. South Dakota State is the best offense in the league. They have scored 83 points or more in five straight games.

I think this one clears this total comfortably.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat and Washington Wizards just met on Wednesday night. The final in that one was 103-100. There were 98 possessions in that game.

The total here has been bet up through the day. It has gotten to a point where I have to take the under. 

If we assume there will be 99 possessions (1 faster than Wednesday) even if the teams average 1.15 points per possession (very good shooting) this would be under the total.

One of the best under referees is the lead ref in this game. Brian Forte's games are 55% to the under in his career.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Western Illinois has allowed 83 points or more in five of their last six games. Omaha has allowed 86 points or more in four of their last six games. The Summit League is a really poor defensive conference, and these are probably the two worst defenses in the league. 

Nebraska Omaha ranks second in overall tempo in league play. Western Illinois ranks third. There should be a very quick pace to this game.

Both of these teams have showed time and time again if they are down late they are willing to foul seemingly endlessly to keep the game going. A foul fest late is a real possibility.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a very low total, but it is very low for good reason. Charlotte has seen 6 of its 16 games go under this very low total. Two of those games went under this total despite overtime. 

On Friday (the first day of the back to backs in the CUSA schedule), the Charlotte games in the last three weeks have been at 98, 100, and 98 points at the end of regulation. Charlotte is an elite defensive team that struggles a lot on offense. They play at the slowest pace in CUSA.

MTSU is very inefficient on offense. They turn the ball over too much and take too many long two point jumpers that are simply bad shots.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans and Georgia Southern Eagles met twice earlier this year. Those two games were 118 points and 119 points in regulation. There wasn't anything fluky about those games either. Troy's offense is a mess and they turn the ball over far too much. 

Georgia Southern is one of the worst shooting teams in the country. Scott Cross will use some zone defense here as many have successfully against Georgia Southern. Four of Georgia Southern's last six games have been 119 points or lower at the end of regulation. They have been a great under team.

This number has gotten too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* We have the perfect combination here for a really high scoring game. Long Island is playing at the single fastest pace of any team in the NEC in league play. Derek Kellogg's team ranks eighth in the country in overall tempo this year. 

Fairleigh Dickinson ranks as the best offense in terms of efficiency in the NEC. They also rank as the worst defense in the NEC in terms of efficiency.

Fairleigh Dickinson has had four straight games finish at 160 points or higher. The last meeting between these two last year was 86-81 and that game was played to a blistering pace of 80 possessions.

Look for this one to be up and down throughout.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game between these two teams played to a pace of 69 possessions, but it only finished at 117 points. The two teams combined to shoot 7/34 from 3 point range. They averaged only 0.88 and 0.81 points per possession in that game.

Morehead State has a good defense. It is probably the best in the OVC. Still, the Eagles are due for some negative regression. They are only giving up 0.862 points per possession in the league. They have faced a lot of the worst offenses in the league while they haven't played Belmont or Austin Peay yet this year. 

Murray State is second in the OVC in offensive efficiency. They have scored 71 points or more in four straight contests. 

Morehead State has scored 74 points or more in four straight games. The Eagles offense has improved a great deal during the year.

This total is set too low based on the score the first time they met.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes defensive statistics look very good on paper. They are a pretty good defense, but they padded their stats against some very weak offenses early this year. Tulsa has been having major problems on the defensive glass of late, and that has led to opponents getting to the line a bunch. Opponents are only shooting 63.1% from the FT line against Tulsa. That has to improve over the rest of the year. We know there is no such thing as "free throw defense." 

The SMU Mustangs rank second in the AAC in offensive efficiency. SMU shoots 73.7% from the line, and they have good balance in scoring from the inside and outside. SMU is pushing the tempo much more than they were a year ago as well.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* VCU is first in the A 10 in tempo. The Rams are using the full court pressure and being very aggressive on defense. In the first meeting between these two, VCU forced 19 turnovers from Rhode Island. They do a great job turning those turnovers into quick points, and Rhode Island has been bad in transition defense this year. 

Rhode Island excels at getting to the line, and they should once again be at the line a bunch against a VCU team that fouls a lot because of their full court pressure. They shot 30 free throws in the first meeting between these two teams.

The pace in that first meeting was 76 possessions. I think we see a pace into the 70's again here and that makes this total very low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Butler Bulldogs have been a great under team this year. Butler has seen 8 of their last 9 games go below this posted total in regulation. There are a few things that make Butler a very good under team. First, this team uses 20 seconds per possession on average. They rank as the best defensive rebounding team in the Big East. They also don't get to the line much or commit many fouls. 

Marquette is playing a whole different style without Howard this year. The Golden Eagles are 65th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They were 14th last year. They don't get to the line nearly as much as they did last year. They also foul less than they did a year ago. Marquette has seen four of their last seven games stay under this total in regulation. They are now playing the best under team in the conference.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces are using a whopping 22.0 seconds of the shot clock on average before taking a shot in MVC play. That is the single slowest pace of any team in the country in league play. Evansville will turn this game into a very slow paced battle.

In the past, Valparaiso would be a team that would be expected to try to push the pace. That isn't the case now though. The Crusaders have slowed down more than a second per possession in league play. Their offense has struggled badly this year. They are 314th in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Look for a tight low scoring battle here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard back. They were excellent in their blowout win over Orlando. Their defense was tremendous in that game.

The New York Knicks are the slowest paced team in the NBA, and it isn't even close. New York is averaging 94.70 possessions per game in their last 10 contests. The second slowest in the NBA is the Denver Nuggets, but they are averaging 97.21 possessions per game.

The Clippers rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. The Knicks rank sixth in that same statistic. 

The Knicks are better coached this year and they have been competitive. In 10 of the Knicks last 13 games, the total has stayed under this number.

This is an early Sunday game and Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the NBA in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs have picked up their pace drastically in recent games. It has worked out well for them. San Diego State struggled through tight low scoring games against Nevada and Utah State. They have clearly made an effort to use their full court pressure and score in transition in their last few games.

Wyoming couldn't handle the pressure well at all on Thursday night. The Cowboys turned the ball over 16 times in that game. They also shot 10/40 from 3 point range. This is a team that shoots the 3 at a 36% clip for the year. 

Wyoming has one of the worst defenses in the Mountain West. They have allowed 81 points or more in five of their last eight games. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers were flying up and down the floor at the beginning of the season. As the season has moved along, they have gradually slowed their tempo. They clearly are playing slower against conference opponents. 

Minnesota's offense isn't as efficient this year. Marcus Carr is having to try to do too much. The Golden Gophers go against a solid Purdue defense in this one. I don't think they'll be very efficient.

Sasha Stefanovic is out for this game again due to COVID protocols. He is easily the Boilermakers best shooter and he can really stretch a defense. This is a team that already goes through offensive droughts even with him. 

I like this one to stay below this total in a hard fought Big Ten matchup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* We cashed with the under in this game on Thursday night, and I have to go back to the under here. That was one of the ugliest games I've ever seen. New Mexico's offense is just brutal. They have no identity at all. The Lobos stand around and end up with bad shots nearly every possession.

Fresno State has very little inside game, and they are happy to slow the game down and make it a grinder. In the past, New Mexico has been all about playing the fast paced games. They can't do that anymore because they just don't have enough offense.

It was 19-19 at halftime on Thursday. The game was 106 after regulation. This one should be low as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Oakland and Fort Wayne stayed under the total by quite a bit last night, and that has discounted this line a bit too much. Both teams shot the ball poorly from inside the arc. They also didn't shoot very many free throws compared to what I would expect.

Fort Wayne should put in a better effort on offense here. A closer game should mean a chance for a foul fest late or possibly even an overtime.

I had this one lined at 158.5

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Air Force Falcons play at an extremely slow pace. They aren't a good defense, but San Jose State is a very inefficient offense as well. San Jose State is without leading scorer Richard Washington due to an injury. 

These two teams just played on Thursday night. Air Force was able to dictate the pace. It was played to only 61 possessions. The game finished 59-58. I assume this will be played faster than that game. Still, if we assume there will be about 65 possessions (what I project this at), both teams could shoot the ball far better than their season averages and this game would still fall short of the posted total.

I don't think a big enough adjustment was made here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Butler has consistently had very low scoring games all season. The Bulldogs play at the slowest pace in the Big East. They are much worse on offense this year, but they are much better on defense.

Butler's last eight games have all had 132 points or less scored in regulation. That includes games against St. John's, Georgetown, and Creighton. 

Xavier has been on a COVID pause. It wouldn't be a surprise if they don't look as crisp on offense as they did right before their break. This is a team that relies heavily on jump shooting.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Louisiana isn't the same team they were in past years. They do still try to push the tempo, but they have one of the better shot blockers in the country in Theo Akwuba down low. Texas State isn't a very tall team, and I don't think they'll have a lot of success in the paint here.

On the other side, Louisiana isn't efficient at all on offense. Texas State is arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt. Texas State also slows the pace of the game down in a big way. They have slowed the last two meetings between these two teams down to 65 and 64 possessions. Those games both stayed easily under this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wright State Raiders are absolutely flying up and down the court this year. Wright State's tempo makes a total set at this average number seem very doable. 

Wright State has scored 85 points or more in 9 of their last 13 games. The Raiders can score from the inside or outside. 

Robert Morris has had defensive problems with teams with good big men this year, and Wright State certainly has that in Love. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Dixie State ranks 16th in the nation in fastest pace of play on the offensive end. Cal Baptist ranks 45th in the nation in that same statistic. This should be an up and down game the whole way. 

Dixie State is shooting 21.9% from 3 point range in conference play. That isn't likely to continue. Even a poor shooting team makes more than this in the long run. Expect positive regression there. 

Both of these teams have been really bad on the defensive glass. I expect a lot of quick second chance points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Stetson Hatters are a team that wants to slow the pace down. Florida Gulf Coast typically plays to the pace of their opponents. 

Last year, these two teams played two very low scoring contests. I expect another here. 

Both of these teams shoot a lot of shots from long range so if they are on fire this total will likely lose. However, these teams aren't very efficient on average on the offensive end.

Neither team gets to the line much and neither team is good at getting second chance points.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Mexico Lobos aren't even close to the same team they were last year. This is a team that is offensively challenged in the biggest way this year. They are no longer running either. They can't try to win high scoring games. They have to slow things down and try to win low scoring battles.

Fresno State is playing very slow this year and they should be happy to try to slow things down and win with their defense.

This number is more than six points off my projection. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Weber State ranked 246th in offensive pace of play last year. They are 36th so far this year. Idaho ranks 346th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

The Big Sky is noted as a conference that has been great to over bettors in the past decade. This is a conference where few teams are any good on defense.

Weber State is very likely to get ahead here, which should cause Idaho to need to play faster as well.

Both of these teams foul far more than the average team in the country. Both teams are far above average from the free throw line (73% and 75%). 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets have actually slowed their pace of play with Harden, Irving, and Durant on the floor together. Harden dribbles it a lot and uses up the clock more than most people realize.

Atlanta has also slowed their pace down and they have been better defensively of late.

For the season, these two teams are 5th and 12th in terms of tempo. In their last three games only, these two teams are 17th and 22nd in tempo. 

If they are going to play at an average pace or slower, this is an extremely high total. Sure, there is a chance all the shots are falling and it gets past this total. Still, with this referee crew skewing to the under and a slower pace I have to back the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* East Carolina had five guys out of their last game against Memphis due to COVID protocols. They are all questionable tonight, but on Sunday the team said it was unlikely all would return tonight. 

Memphis pushes the pace in a way that UCF won't. UCF prefers to play at an even slower tempo than East Carolina does. Memphis ran up the score by getting out in transition and they won 80-53 over an East Carolina team that had very little offensive firepower.

I don't think we'll see a pace even close to as fast in this game. Also, both of these teams are clearly better on defense than offense. 

UCF is the better team and they have been able to lock down several teams. East Carolina's defense is above average as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions averaged 0.825 points per possession in SWAC play last year. They are at 0.973 points per possession so far this year. With Doss healthy they are some better this year on offense, but I don't think they are this good. On the other side, they are allowing opponents in the SWAC to shoot 43.5% from 3 point range this year. This Pine Bluff team has ranked in the top 65 in the country in 3 point field goal defense in three of the last five years, and their 3 point defense should regress positively the rest of the year.

In the last three meetings between Prairie View and Pine Bluff the final totals have been 92 points, 121 points, and 130 points. 

Prairie View is worse offensively this year without Patterson and Williams from their very strong team last year.

The pace should be relatively slow here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Sunday has been the single best day of the week to bet unders in the NBA in the past decade, and it isn't even close. Early unders have done very well in the long run. Western Conference early unders (5 pm eastern or earlier) are 6-2 to the under this season.

The Clippers should have a fairly easy time with the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Clippers put up a pretty big point total against OKC in their last game, but they did make 24/25 from the free throw line in that game.

The Thunder are certainly more limited without Al Horford. Also, the Thunder rank 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last five games. 

For the season overall, the Clippers are 27th in the NBA in tempo. 

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* Last night's game between these two finished 65-60. The tempo was slow and both offenses struggled to get good looks.

Western Illinois appears to have decided to slow things down tempo wise. That is likely a good move since their offense is horrible. I would expect them to try to keep the game close again by slowing it down.

South Dakota has the best defense in the Summit League. Their games have consistently been lower. This is a league that scores a lot in general and I believe this total is inflated.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both Loyola Marymount and Santa Clara are far better on defense than they are on offense. The significant line move here on the total makes me like the under.

Santa Clara tries to get to the basket a lot, but Loyola does a good job defending the paint.

Loyola Marymount looks to get inside as well, but Santa Clara has multiple good shot blockers inside.

The pace of the game might be quick, but I don't think the teams will shoot it well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duquesne Dukes are severely shorthanded now. Sincere Carry was their star player and leader on the offensive end. They have some guys who have stepped in and played solid defense, but no one is able to replace his scoring and facilitating of the offense.

St. Bonaventure is happy to slow the pace down, and their defense is one of the best in the Atlantic Ten. They held Duquesne to 48 points when they met just a couple games ago, and Duquesne should struggle to score again here.

St. Bonaventure has had poor efficiency numbers on offense on the road in recent seasons.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Nicholls State averaged using 17.2 seconds per possession last year in the Southland. They are using only 15.5 seconds per possession this year. That kind of big change in tempo can create value in the totals market especially on under the radar teams. 

Nicholls State has also improved their offensive efficiency some at the same time. 

New Orleans is playing slightly faster than they did a year ago as well. New Orleans' offense is rolling right now. They have scored a minimum of 86 points in each of their last three games. 

Nicholls State has scored 80 points or more in four of their last seven games.

The final game they met last year these two teams scored 160 points. I expect something close to that here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Kentucky Norse won 81-76 yesterday against Robert Morris. 

Robert Morris plays a unique trapping defense that can bother quite a few teams. Northern Kentucky does turn it over quite a bit and that should lead to quick points for Robert Morris at times. On the other end though, Northern Kentucky got a lot of open looks near the hoop against this unique defense yesterday. Adrian Nelson has really come on of late for N Kentucky and I think he is a tough matchup for Robert Morris.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* I had the over here yesterday and lost. There were 75 possessions in that game and the two teams had the worst offensive efficiencies they have had this season. Both of these teams are better on offense than they are on defense. Now, we have a lower line and my projected number for this game is 148. 

Both teams should play fast again today. I would expect more trips to the line. If we see a tempo like they have played at, even average shooting gets this to 150 or so.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Utah Valley plays with quite a bit of tempo, and we know that St. John's plays almost as fast as anyone in the country. 

Utah Valley has really had issues taking care of the basketball this year. They rank in the bottom 50 in the nation in transition points allowed off opponents steals. St. John's should take full advantage of this weakness.

Utah Valley gets to the line at the 7th highest rate of any team in the country. St. John's is prone to fouling a lot because of their full court press.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wisconsin is elite at controlling the tempo of the game. Ohio State prefers to play slowly, so I think they will be happy to allow Wisconsin to slow this game down as well.

Wisconsin's defense has been tremendous of late. The Badgers last six games have finished regulation with these point totals: 134, 130, 122, 131, 114, and 120 points. 

Ohio State ranks as the fifth most efficient offense in the nation right now. I think they slip in the weeks to come. They are without starting point guard C.J. Walker right now. That could be an issue in a game like this against a great defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds and Weber State Wildcats both play at a very fast pace. Weber State just beat Southern Utah 91-67 on Thursday night. 

Weber State is unlikely to score 91 points again here, but Southern Utah should score quite a bit more than 67 points. Southern Utah has only scored less than 81 points twice in their eight home games this year. 

Both of these teams rank in the top 16 in the nation in free throw shots attempted. I expect a bunch of fouling and trips to the free throw line here. 

These two teams have each seen a bunch of their games sail far past this posted total. They are more than capable of scoring even more than they did on Thursday night.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas Jayhawks and Oklahoma Sooners are thought of as offensive powerhouses, but these two defenses have been very good this year.

Oklahoma has slowed their pace down drastically compared to a year ago. The Sooners defense ranks first in the Big 12 in defending without fouling. Kansas is second in defending without fouling. 

These two teams are also second and third in the Big 12 in defensive rebounding. We shouldn't see very many second chance opportunities in this game.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* San Diego State is an elite defensive team. They also play at the second slowest pace in the Mountain West. Air Force plays at the slowest pace in the Mountain West.

Matt Mitchell is San Diego State's leading scorer at 15.3 ppg and he is expected to miss this game with an injury. 

Air Force is unlikely to be able to get much going on offense here, and I think San Diego State will be less efficient without their go to guy on offense as well.

This projects as a very slow paced game. My projected number on this game is much lower than this total.

Take the under. Top Rated play. 

*I would bet this for 5 stars down to 126.5 and for 4 stars at a lower level than that*