Sports Picks & Predictions

*5 Star NCAA BB Top Total* The Nebraska Cornhuskers don't know how to play other than to slow the game down and try to win by controlling the tempo. That probably isn't going to work against the Oregon Ducks, but that won't stop them from trying it. Oregon's defense is much improved this year. The Ducks are allowing only 62.6 points per game this year. Nebraska only averages 62 points per game. I think Oregon gets control of this game and then slows down later in the game when the game has already been decided. My numbers had this one at 131 points. Take the under big!

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals Takedown* Anthony Grant will take his new team (Alabama) to face his old team (VCU) on Saturday. Both of these teams play extremely scrappy, and they fight as hard as they can on the defensive end. It's hard to imagine either team shooting the ball very well in this matchup. In addition, neither team really likes to push the tempo all that much. VCU does press, but they also use up the shot clock a lot in the halfcourt sets. I projected this one at 123 points. Look for this one to stay under the total.

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Arizona State Sun Devils have played a slightly faster paced game than normal this year, but I think that is primarily because of the teams they have played against. Coach Sendek is normally a guy who likes to slow it down and play solid defense. Dartmouth is a very bad team who slows the game down and also shoots it very poorly from the floor. I projected this line at 123 points. I think Arizona State reverts to their old form in this one. The under is 10-2 in Dartmouth's last 12 Saturday games. The under is 4-0 in AZ State's last 4 Saturday games. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Golden State Warriors are coming off a big win over the Miami Heat in their last game. Golden State may be a little more sloppy in this one, and if they are I think that will show up on the defensive end. Both of these teams are in the top ten in the NBA in pace, so there should be plenty of shot opportunities for both teams in this one. These teams reached 196 in their game a couple weeks ago despite neither team shooting it particularly great or getting to the line very much. The over is 10-3-1 in Golden State's last 14 against the East. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Memphis Grizzlies play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, and they lead the league in defensive efficiency. Phoenix isn't the offensive juggernaut that they used to be. The Suns have been making a concerted effort to play more defense, and it has helped the team a bit. These two got together a couple weeks ago and the final total was 196 after overtime. I think this one has been set too high by 3 or 4 points. Look for the Grizzlies defense to control this one. Take the under here.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers are both near the bottom in the NBA in terms of pace. Both teams walk it up the floor and use up the shot clock. Both are also near the top of the NBA in all the major defensive statistics. Doug Collins and Tom Thibodeau are both defensive-minded coaches. These two teams have played five straight games without a total going over 181 points. The under is 5-0 in the Bulls last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 5-0 in the Bulls last 5 against a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Sixers last 5 following a day of rest. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* Over the past few years, one of the best teams in college basketball at controlling the tempo of the game has been Cal Poly. With no change in the coaching staff, I expect that to be the same again this year. So far this season, Cal Poly has controlled the possessions quite well in most of their games. Nevada plays at an average pace, and the Wolfpack defense is pretty good. Look for the slow tempo to keep this lower than most expect. The under is 7-0 in Nevada's last 7 games against the Big West. The under is 9-2 in Cal Poly's last 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-1 in Cal Poly's last 5 games overall. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Los Angeles Clippers dismantled the Chicago Bulls earlier this year. The Clippers won 101-80 at home earlier this year against the Bulls. Tom Thibodeau's Bulls weren't playing their patented strong defense early in the year, but they have been much better again of late. Chicago should have this one circled, and I think we'll get a lot of effort from them in this one on the defensive end. Neither team pushes the tempo much at all, so I don't think there will be too many possessions here. The under is 5-0 in the Bulls last 5 home games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games following two days of rest. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Bookie BEATDOWN* The Los Angeles Lakers have finally started to pick up the scoring under Coach D'Antoni's new system over the past few games. Los Angeles has scored more than 100 points in six straight games. They have also given up at least 103 points in five of their last six games. Kyrie Irving is expected back for the Cavs, and Cleveland should be able to break down the Lakers defense here. At the same time, the Cavs have no one capable of stopping Kobe or Dwight Howard. This one should coast over the posted total. Take the over.

*3 Star New York City Battle Total* The New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets met a few weeks ago in a very low scoring game in Brooklyn. Why do I like the value on the over this time? Brook Lopez won't play tonight and that makes a huge difference in how the Nets play. The Nets aren't going to be able to control the tempo in this one like they did before. Also, Andray Blatche isn't the defensive presence that Lopez is. New York is the most efficient offense in the NBA right now. The over is 4-1-1 in the Knicks last 6 games overall. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night Bailout* Both Valparaiso and New Mexico are teams that I expect to do very well in their respective conference this year. The Crusaders should be the best in the Horizon League, and they have quite a few scoring options on the offensive end. New Mexico will have the athleticism advantage, and they should be able to get to the basket with dribble penetration. I had this one projected at 134 points. I think both offenses are better than the oddsmakers are giving them credit for. Take the over.

*3 Star Arizona/Clemson Total* Brad Brownell is a coach that sticks by his philosophy every single year. Clemson is now a team that walks it up the floor and uses up the shot clock almost every time. They also focus on getting back defensive and setting up a very good half court defense. Arizona likes to push the tempo when they can, but I don't think they'll be able to dictate the tempo in a tough road environment here. Look for this one to stay close all the way. I think this one finishes around 125 points. Take the under here.

*3 Star NCAA BB Hidden Gem Total* The Drake Bulldogs are a solid team in a very good Missouri Valley Conference. Most teams in the MVC like to slow it down, but Drake pushes the tempo whenever they can. Drake has had six games against Division I opponents this year. The lowest scoring game finished at 142 points. Fort Wayne might not be a good team, but they love to push the tempo and jack up quick shots. This should play right into Drake's hands. Look for a quick tempo and plenty of points in this one. Take the over.

*3 Star Butler/Northwestern Total* Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in the country. Stevens focuses on ball control and solid defense. Bill Carmody is a very underrated coach as well, and he gets a lot out of his teams thanks to his defensive philosophy. It's hard to imagine a ton of points being scored when these two meet today. It should be a game that is played almost completely in the half court. I projected this one at 124 points. Look for this one to be close all the way. The under is the best value. Take the under.

*5 Star NCAA BB Play of the Week* The oddsmakers were way off my projected line on this one. I had this one pegged at 140 points, so I definitely don't know how they came up with 151 points. Both of these teams are in the moderate tempo range, so I don't expect a track meet. Both defenses are good at playing defense without fouling, so there shouldn't be an abundance of free throws. These teams both have a lot of youth and inexperience, which typically leads to an inefficient offense. The under is a perfect 6-0 in San Jose State's last 6 games overall. Take the under big!

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals Takedown* Oregon is a team that likes to push the tempo, but I think this total is set too high considering who their opponent is in this one. Idaho State has played five games against Division I teams this year and they have yet to score more than 52 points. In fact, they have scored 48 or less in four of their five games. The highest total score in a game of theirs this year was 106 points. This one will clearly be higher because of Oregon's offense, but I don't think it will be this high. Take the under.

*3 Star UCLA/Texas Total* The UCLA Bruins and Texas Longhorns meet today in Reliant Stadium. Texas has had one of the worst offenses in college basketball this year. They have also had one of the best defenses in the nation. UCLA has been extremely inconsistent this year. Big stadiums like this (especially ones that aren't normally used for basketball) tend to have very difficult shooting backdrops. I lower my totals by three or four points just on this factor alone. The under is 4-0 in Texas' last 4 neutral site games. The under is 6-0 in Texas' last 6 non-conference games. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The West Virginia Mountaineers are never going to be a run and gun team with Bob Huggins as their head coach. This team has an identity built around playing physically and clamping down on defense. Virginia Tech hasn't played a team nearly as physical as West Virginia so far this year, and I think it will slow the Hokies offense down quite a bit. At the same time, the West Virginia offense has been terrible so far this year. Look for a sloppy game that leads to the under cashing in.

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Marist Red Foxes have been running and gunning for the last couple years. Marist isn't a very good team, but you can count on them getting up plenty of shots. Manhattan used to play at a slow pace, but the Jaspers adopted a new style last year and it has worked out for them very well. Manhattan has several very good scoring options on their team. I had this one projected at 132 points, so I like the value on this one quite a bit. Look for both teams to get easy looks from pressure defenses. Take the over here.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The Fairfield Stags are the favorite in the MAAC. Fairfield is great at controlling the tempo and playing very solid defense. Canisius is pushing the pace this year, but Fairfield should be able to get this game into their style of play on their home floor. These teams have met five times in the past couple years. The final totals of those games were 124, 127, 125, 127, and 126 points. The line has been adjusted upward far too much here. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two at Fairfield. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns both like to push the pace. In fact, both of these teams are in the top nine in the NBA in tempo this year. Dallas is playing faster with O.J. Mayo in the lineup this year. He is a guy who can score in bunches, and I think he'll be effective in this one. Shawn Marion and Vince Carter are both back in Phoenix here, and they should be fired up for a good performance. The Suns still push the pace and put up points at home. The over is 10-2 in the Suns last 12 games playing on one day of rest. The over is 5-0 in the Suns last 5 against the Western Conference. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* The Idaho Vandals are very good at controlling the tempo. It is very rare that you see one of their games with this high of a posted total. Eastern Washington definitely gets out and runs whenever they can, but I don't think they'll be able to turn this game into a track meet like they do with most games, because the Vandals will want to move slowly. I had this game projected at 143 points. The under is 6-0 in Idaho's last 6 games against teams with losing record. The under is 5-0 in Eastern Washington's last 5 games against a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 meetings in Washington. Take the under.

*3 Star Instate Battle Total* It's a battle for Nebraska tonight in Lincoln. Creighton is the better team here, but Nebraska plays good half court defense and will make the Blue Jays work for their points in this one. These rivalry games are often won on the defensive end, and I think the pace will slow down a bit here. Creighton is an extremely efficient team on offense normally, but they don't really run and gun all that much. Nebraska plays defense on their home floor, and I think this will be a hard fought game. The under is 37-18-1 in Nebraska's last 56 home games. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Cincinnati Bearcats have picked up their tempo a bit this year, but they are still playing very good halfcourt defense. In fact, opponents are shooting only 36% on two-point field goal attempts against the Bearcats. Arkansas Little Rock isn't used to playing teams like Cincinnati, and I suspect they'll have quite a bit of trouble scoring in this one. Look for the Bearcats to jump out to a big lead and then take their foot off the gas. The under is 12-4 in Cincinnati's last 16 home games. Take the under in this one.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The South Florida Bulls are as good as anyone in the nation at controlling the tempo of the game. The Bulls like to play a slow half court style, and they force their opponent to get into that type of matchup. Some teams are only able to do this on their home floor, but USF has done it consistently on the road. The under is 13-4 in the Bulls last 17 road games. The under is 15-5 in Oklahoma State's last 20 home games. I projected this one at 121 points. Look for the slow pace to keep this one under the total.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Milwaukee Bucks play at the second fastest tempo in the NBA. The San Antonio Spurs are also in the top ten in the NBA in tempo. A game between these two should mean plenty of possessions and shots for both teams. The Spurs are well rested now, and that should mean we'll get a good effort out of guys like Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan. The over is 5-0 in the Spurs last 5 games following a straight up win. The over is 10-2 in their last 12 games against the NBA Central. The over is 6-1 in their last 7 games overall. Look for this to coast past the total. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* Valparaiso should be the best team in the Horizon League this year. Valpo has a nice combination of good shooters as well as solid inside play. Fort Wayne doesn't play teams as good as Valpo very often, and I think they'll give up a lot of points here. Fort Wayne likes to push the tempo, and I expect them to be able to put up a decent amount of points simply because their tempo is quick. This line is quite a ways off what I projected. I expected a line of 132 points here. Take the big value on the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* UAB has a new coach who is installing a faster-paced offense for the Blazers. They are speeding things up, but Middle Tennessee State is a very good team. I don't expect the Blue Raiders to just let UAB have its way with the tempo here. In addition, MTSU's defense will be one of the best that UAB faces this year, and that should keep their shooting percentage down. I had this one projected at 138 points. The oddsmakers probably got a little ahead of themselves making this one so high. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total* This game is way off most people's radar, but I like the value on this one. North Dakota likes to push the tempo, and their defense is weak. UMKC has one of the worst three-point field goal defense percentages in the nation. Last year, these teams combined to score 153 points with similar lineups. I don't expect 153 points here, but I do think this one gets into the 130's. Look for plenty of made shots from beyond the arc here. This total was just set too low for these teams. Take the over in this contest.

*3 Star NCAA BB Instate Rivalry* The Marshall Thundering Herd and West Virginia Mountaineers will meet on a neutral court to settle the battle for West Virginia on Wednesday night. Neutral courts typically lead to lower scoring games, and both of these teams have very inefficient offenses right now. The Mountaineers will scrap and claw on defense, but they just aren't very good right now. Neither team will push the pace here very much, and I think this game stays in the half court. Look for this one to stay in the 130's. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night Total* The Pacific Tigers have historically been a team that does a great job dictating the tempo of the game. Pacific likes to play in the half court and not get out and run. The Tigers will be able to control the tempo better here on their home floor. Nevada will push the pace when they can, but this total is set as if both teams will be running and gunning. I projected this game at 136 points. The under is 7-0 in Nevada's lats 7 games against the Big West. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Siena Saints aren't anything even close to the team they used to be. A few years ago they were a high flying team that pushed the tempo under Fran McCaffrey. He is now at Iowa, and Siena is now slowing the tempo down and looking to win with ball control and defense. St. Bonaventure lost their star (Andrew Nicholson) from last year, and this team's offense is no longer all that strong. I had this one projected at 127 points. Look for this to stay under the total by a couple of baskets.

*3 Star NCAA BB Intrastate Battle* The Michigan Wolverines have looked about as good as anyone in college basketball so far this year. Michigan controls the tempo extremely well, and there won't be anything Western Michigan can do to turn this into a track meet (I don't think that would help them anyways). Michigan's defense is much better this year, especially in the half court. Western Michigan doesn't have any clear established leaders on offense right now. Look for Michigan's style of play to keep this one under the posted total.

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals Takedown* The Richmond Spiders are a very good defensive team. This is a team that controls the tempo of the game and makes it tough for their opponents to get easy looks near the basket. Old Dominion hasn't found any go to guys on offense yet this year, and the Monarchs simply haven't been very good this year. ODU isn't the type of team to push the tempo, especially now that they are weak in the backcourt. Look for a defensive game here between two teams who have a lot of question marks offensively. The under is 5-2 in Richmond's last 7 games. Take the under .

*3 Star Texas/GTown Total* The Texas Longhorns have one of the best defenses in the nation so far this year. They also have one of the worst offenses. Without Myck Kabongo, this offense is struggling to find any kind of rhythm. Georgetown lost a lot of talent from last year, but the Hoyas are still playing very good defense. Georgetown will keep the pace of the game slow here. Madison Square Garden is the site of this game, and the shooting background here is notoriously difficult. The under is 5-0 in Texas' last 5 non-conference games. The under is 5-0 in GTown's last 5 following an ATS loss. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Purdue Boilermakers are known for their defense. This year Purdue has given up just 63.3 points per game. Lamar's offense has been horrible this season. Lamar is scoring just 56.1 points per game. Purdue should get in front in this and then cruise to a big victory. Lamar has no offensive leadership, and the Boilers will make them take a lot of difficult shots in this one. The under is 12-4 in Purdue's last 16 non-conference games. The under is 3-1-1 in Lamar's last 5 road games. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Milwaukee Bucks have the second fastest paced offense in the NBA by the numbers (Houston is first). Milwaukee has two guards who can push the tempo as well as anyone in the NBA in Jennings and Ellis. New Orleans is without Anthony Davis in this one, and that probably helps the over more than anything because he is a defensive beast. These two met earlier this year and the final was 117-113. The total in that game was 191. The total here is set two points lower for some reason. Milwaukee will get their shots up, and New Orleans allows opponents to shoot 40.2% from three-point range. The over is 4-0 in the Hornets last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take the over.

*5 Star NCAA BB Top Total* The Florida Atlantic Owls have slowed their tempo down this year. Arkansas State is a very slow paced team under John Brady. The oddsmakers line here is way off of my projections. I projected this one at 124 points, so I see a ton of value on this one. The recent trends have been to the over, but I can't overlook that much value on my numbers. Both of these teams play slow, and neither team shoots the ball very well. Look for an ugly game that finishes way under the posted total. Take the under in a big way!

*5 Star NCAA BB Top Play Total* The Princeton Tigers may not play quite as slow as they used to, but they still don't let a game speed up much at all. Kent State lost most of their offense from last year, so I don't see them being able to turn this into an offensive shootout. The Tigers will run the shot clock down and slow this game down in a big way. I had this line projected at 128, so I see a lot of value in this one. Unless the shooting numbers are outrageously high, I just don't see this one breaking 130 points. Take the under big!