Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Under* Villanova has slowed their tempo down drastically this year. The Wildcats were 150th in tempo last year. So far this year, they are 344th. Villanova doesn't have the veteran ball handlers that they had last season, and Jay Wright has decided to slow things down quite a bit. 

Penn ranks 187th in tempo so far this year. They have played a lot of fairly fast paced games this year, but I believe that is due to who they have played against. The Quakers have only faced one team in the bottom 100 in terms of tempo so far this year. Villanova will easily be the slowest team they have gone against.

Villanova takes a bunch of 3 point shots. The Wildcats aren't nearly as efficient from 3 point range this year as they were a year ago. Villanova is up against a tremendous 3 point defense in Penn here too. The Quakers were 2nd in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense last year. They are 59th so far this year. 

Both teams rank in the top 45 in the country in least fouls committed. Neither offense is particularly good at getting to the line either.

This is a rivalry game and I expect a slow pace and a lot of effort on defense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Monday MONEY* The Oklahoma City Thunder were beaten out of the NBA playoffs last year by the Utah Jazz. Oklahoma City ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency this year, and I would expect them to work very hard on defense in a game that means so much to them. The Thunder have been at their best defensively of late. Oklahoma City is allowing opponents to score only 0.979 points per possession in their last eight games.

Utah has underachieved defensively so far this year, but the Jazz are improving. On the year, they are 12th in defensive efficiency. In their last six games, they rank 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

These two teams met ten times last year. One game was 224, one was 217.. and the rest were 209 or lower. In fact, 6 of the 10 games finished at 197 points or lower. 

This is a very high total for a game involving these two teams. Expect a motivated defensive effort from both teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* A.W. Hamilton said before the season he wanted his Eastern Kentucky team to press and push the tempo to the extreme. He wasn't kidding. Eastern Kentucky ranks third out of 353 teams in the nation in tempo. How fast are they playing? They are playing faster than The Citadel or Marshall so far this year. North Carolina is 10th fastest in the nation at 76 possessions per game, but Eastern Kentucky is averaging nearly 4.5 possessions per game more than that. This team is playing extremely quickly.

Eastern Kentucky's full court pressing style has led to a bunch of fouling this year. They rank in the top 25 in most fouls committed. Northern Kentucky excels in getting to the line. Eastern Kentucky has allowed 90 points or more four times in just eight games against Division One opponents this year. 

Northern Kentucky has scored 88 points or more three times this year. Northern Kentucky also ranks in the top 25 in the nation in most fouls committed. 

A very fast paced game with a lot of free throw attempts here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Houston ranks as the third slowest paced team in the country thus far this year. The Cougars don't have nearly as much offensive firepower with Rob Gray gone. They have gone to slowing the game down and taking care of the ball on offense and leaning on a strong defense, and it has worked very well. 

Houston held a very fast paced BYU team to only 62 points on the road earlier this year. They held Oregon to 61 points as well. 

Oklahoma State has played a lot of teams who want to run so far this year. The Cowboys are up against a very different opponent here. Oklahoma State is relatively quick on offense, but I don't expect them to be all that efficient.

This number has been pushed up to a point where I feel comfortable taking the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The St. Peter's Peacocks have one of the worst offenses in the country. St. Peter's hasn't scored more than 1.00 points per possession since their first game of the year. They have been at 0.96 points per possession or less in all but one of those games. St. Peter's now faces the second best defense they have faced this year (Auburn). In that Auburn game, St. Peter's averaged 0.64 points per possession and finished with 49 points.

Clemson isn't going to push the pace the way several of St. Peter's opponents have so far this year. Clemson has ranked in the bottom 100 in the nation in terms of tempo every single season since 2011. They are going to keep playing slowly this year. St. Peter's is even slower than Clemson, and the Peacocks are much more efficient on defense than offense.

Clemson ranked 7th allowing just 0.926 points per possession last year. They are at 25th so far this year. St. Peter's should find it hard to get anything going against them. 

St. Peter's shouldn't be able to score very much here. I think this total is a few points too high based on the tempo and the efficiency marks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Old Dominion Monarchs are back to playing the way they are most comfortable. Old Dominion is using the clock up, and trying to win low scoring games because of their strong defense. The Monarchs are 18th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense according to KenPom. Old Dominion is 340th in tempo out of 353 teams. 

James Madison isn't much faster. The Dukes rank 295th in tempo. James Madison isn't very efficient on offense, because they turn it over way too much. James Madison crashes the offensive glass, but Old Dominion is tremendous at defensive rebounding. They won't get nearly as many second chance opportunities as normal. 

These two teams have played in each of the last two seasons. The final scores in those games were 69-53 Old Dominion and 62-55 Old Dominion. The Monarchs are the better team again this year. They should control the tempo and their defense should give James Madison a very difficult time again. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is played in Belfast, Northern Ireland. This is a large arena that has been made into a basketball arena for these games, and the the under has done extremely well here in the past.

Buffalo plays very quickly, and the Bulls are good on offense. They are also good defensively though. Buffalo relies on a couple things on offense: their ability to shoot from long range, and their ability to get second chance points. San Francisco defense excels at stopping both of those things from happening. They are allowing 24.1% 3 point field goal percentage (6th in the country). They are 1st in the nation in defensive rebounding as well.

San Francisco isn't likely to want this game to be a track meet. I would think the Dons will try to make this a halfcourt game and win with their strong defense. The Dons are a well-coached team, and their defense is the strength of the team.

Neither team gets to the line much, and both are good at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks and San Francisco Dons meet in Northern Ireland at SSE Arena in Belfast on Friday morning. This isn't typically a basketball arena, and that usually is a good thing for the under. The under is 5-1 in games played at SSE Arena thus far (last year and this year).

How good of a bet has the under been here? None of the 5 games that have stayed under the total at SSE Arena has stayed under the number by less than 5 points. Four of the five have stayed under by at least 11 points. 

Stephen F. Austin has some serious turnover issues. The Lumberjacks have turned it over at the fifth highest rate of any team in college basketball. A whopping 25.5% of their possessions on offense have ended with a turnover. They turned the ball over 24 times against SW Assemblies of God. That is an NAIA school! 

San Francisco plays great defense. The Dons are 33rd out of 351 in defensive efficiency, and Kyle Smith's teams have always been very strong on defense. The Dons are only average paced, and SF Austin has played slowly so far this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Joe's Hawks and the UIC Flames both like to push the tempo. St Joe's is 68th quickest in the country in terms of how quick in the shot clock they shoot it. UIC is 81st in that category. Both of these teams excel from 3 point range, and both defenses are weak against the 3 ball as well.

St. Joe's does a great job taking care of the ball also. The Hawks are first in the country in lowest turnover percentage (out of 353 teams). That certainly helps an over a lot. UIC has improved quite a bit in taking care of the basketball as well.

The spread on this game sits at a margin where it wouldn't be surprising at all for there to be a foul fest late in the game. That can be a big boost in scoring in the last couple minutes.

I see an up and down game the whole way, and this total is low enough that I see value on the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iona Gaels have a history of playing fast and having an efficient offense and a bad defense. Tim Cluess has the same type of team every year. Iona ranks 18th in tempo so far this year out of 353 teams in the country. They will push the pace here.

Ohio ranks 38th in the nation in tempo. The Bobcats have shot the ball terribly so far this year, which has made for some lower numbers in their games. Ohio is shooting 20.4% from 3 point range so far this year. That isn't going to continue. Positive regression is on the way here. Up against a poor Iona defense, I expect Ohio to have a lot of open looks.

The fact that Ohio has shot it so poorly this year has pushed this number down to where it is a good value. It's important to note that Ohio's worst shooting games were on a neutral floor. This game is a home game for them.

Look for an up and down game that is high scoring.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves have committed themselves to playing extremely fast and using full court pressure even more this year. Arkansas State is using only 14.6 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average this year. That is 14th quickest in the country. 

Arkansas State has two major problems on defense that both help scoring. Arkansas State can't grab defensive rebounds, and they do a bunch of fouling. 

UNC Wilmington wants to push the pace as well, and Wilmington has been a team that fouls a bunch the last couple seasons as well. The Seahawks do turn the ball over a lot and I would expect Arkansas State to get plenty of easy looks in transition here.

An up and down game with both teams getting to the line often. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Marshall will push the pace about as well as anyone in the country. Dan D'Antoni's team has great guards who can push the pace and get into the lane and kick it out to open 3 point shooters. 

Marshall was much better defensively last year because of Penava and his shot blocking ability, but he is gone now. I think Marshall will be worse on the interior defensively this year. 

Maryland has tried to run when they can so far this year, but they haven't played any teams who want to run with them. The Terrapins haven't played a team who ranks in the top 170 in the country in tempo so far this season. That all changes here. Marshall ranks 4th in overall tempo.

An up and down game. Maryland should get on the offensive glass here and get a lot of second chance opportunities here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines offense should slip slightly this year without Wagner, but their defense may be even better than last season. The Wolverines are easily first in the nation so far this year in both effective field goal percentage and points allowed per possession (0.868). This is a team that can really clamp down on the opposition.

Michigan is a team that does a great job slowing the game down. Chattanooga wants to play slowly with Lamont Paris as their head coach (a former Bo Ryan associate at Wisconsin). This game should be played very slowly.

Michigan has only had one game all year above 119 points total. Chattanooga is averaging only 54 points per game in their last 3 contests, and that was against S Alabama, Jacksonville, and SE Missouri State. They should have a very hard time scoring here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The BYU Cougars have decided to pick up the tempo this year. BYU strayed from their normal strategy of running last year, and it wasn't a good fit for the offense. They are back to running again this year. 

Rice is going to push the tempo as much as possible under Scott Pera. In fact, they rank 48th in the nation so far this year in shortest average possession length. BYU ranks 40th in that same statistic. 

BYU has shot a really poor percentage from 3 point range so far this year, but I expect positive regression there. Rice's defense is a clear weakness.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I don't understand the line move here. For many years both Texas State and Cal Poly have been very slow paced teams. They have both faced some very fast paced opponents in the early going this year, and that has skewed their numbers in the early going. I expect both of these teams to end up being similar to what they have been in past years. Both still have the same coaching staffs.

Cal Poly settles for long range jumpers and very rarely gets to the free throw line. Texas State is great at forcing turnovers, but they turn it over a lot themselves as well.

I capped this one in the low 130's. Of course these teams could shoot a really high percentage and get over this number, but I think the odds are good of this one staying under. I'll fade the early line move.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CBB Total Domination* The Wright State Raiders have played 4 games against Division I teams so far this year. Three of their four opponents have been very fast paced teams who are weak on the defensive end. The final totals in those games were very high and that has contributed to this number being inflated. Wright State scored only 54 against a Murray State defense that is good.

Penn State lost Tony Carr and Shep Garner from last year's team. Those two were the team's best outside shooters. Penn State is lacking in firepower on the offensive end this season. I expect them to continue to play very good defense. So far this year, Penn State is allowing only 0.916 points per possession, which is 11th in the country. 

This game is played at Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya and the under is 21-11 in the last 32 games played there. This fits the angles of early neutral site contests being 56% to the under in the last ten years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips are trying to slow the game down. John Groce said that right now they don't have enough athleticism across the board. That is making them try to slow the game down and make it a half court battle. 

Clemson's defense ranked #7 in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. The Tigers have a great defense under the leadership of Brad Brownell. 

Both teams aren't good on the offensive glass, so their should be fewer second chance opportunities than in a normal contest.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* Kansas State just played a game against Eastern Kentucky, who is pushing the pace to an extreme this year. That made for a very high scoring game. That game has pushed this number up. Penn isn't going to play that way. The Quakers are far more deliberate. Bruce Weber's Wildcats prefer to play slowly as well. Both of these teams are above average defensively.

Penn has played against a couple very fast paced teams early in the year as well. This is a case of recency bias helping push the total several points higher.

Early season tournament games (first 8 games of the year) played on neutral floors have gone 56% to the under when lined at 134 or higher in the past 10 years. 

This game is played at Virgin Islands Sport Fitness Center- where the under is a whopping 42-21 all time. Many players have talked about this being a tough shooting backdrop.

This total should be in the upper 130's. 

Take the under here. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tacko Fall is an imposing player in the middle of the UCF zone defense. UCF can really force teams to slow things down with their zone pushed out and a shot blocker in the middle of the paint down low. 

Western Kentucky has a very good defensive big men in Bassey now as well. The Hilltoppers should be significantly better on defense this year than they were last season.

In each of the last two seasons, both of these teams ranked in the top 25 in the country in defending without fouling. Both have been good at grabbing defensive boards as well.

Early season tournament games (first 8 games of the year) played on neutral floors have gone 56% to the under when lined at 134 or higher in the past 10 years. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers are always going to work really hard on the defensive end for Cuonzo Martin, but this team is limited when it comes to offensive firepower this year. Injuries have hit this team hard already this year. Missouri prefers to play slowly as well.

Oregon State likes to play at a slow pace also. The Beavers don't have many good options outside of Tres Tinkle, and I would expect Missouri's defense to key in on him in this one.

Early season tournament games (first 8 games of the year) played on neutral floors have gone 56% to the under when lined at 134 or higher in the past 10 years. 

This game is played at Virgin Islands Sport Fitness Center- where the under is a whopping 42-21 all time. Many players have talked about this being a tough shooting backdrop.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* I've isolated Weber State as a team to look for value on overs with this year. Coach Randy Rahe said he wants this team to play faster than any of his previous teams. Weber State has listened so far this year. In yesterday's game against San Jose State, they played to a pace of 81 possessions, which is blazing fast.

Central Michigan is always happy to run under Keno Davis. Two years ago they finished fifth in the nation in pace of play. Last year they were in the middle of the pack, but they were much better on the offensive end than on defense.

Both of these teams will want to run, and both of these teams have been good at getting to the free throw line. 

Look for a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Kennesaw State has shown us what they are in the early season period this year. They are going to look to slow the game down drastically and keep it close with low possessions and decent defense. They don't have the scoring firepower to keep up with very many teams.

Kennesaw State only scored 41 points against Kansas State. They then scored only 60 points against a terrible Samford defense. 

Missouri still has a lot of issues to work out on offense, but this team will be very good on defense under Coach Cuonzo Martin. Missouri was 16th in the country in effective field goal percentage last year. They prefer to play at a slow pace.

This game is played in the Virgin Islands in a gym with a poor shooting backdrop. This gym has been great to under bettors in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* North Dakota State and Miami are both teams who have wanted to slow the pace down under their current coaches. North Dakota State lost some very good offensive talent from a year ago. Miami's coaching staff has talked about their improved ability to guard at length in the offseason. 

I would expect both of these teams to rank in the bottom 100 (out of 353) in pace of play at the end of the season. With a total this high and on a neutral floor early in the season I like the under value here.

These early season tournaments on neutral sites have been very good to under bettors. In a sample size of more than 1,800 games, the under sits at 55.5% when the total is 134 points or higher. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies have the makings of a really good team in the Big Sky Conference this year. Montana has shot blockers at the back of the defense, and they have perimeter defenders who will be all over the ball handlers. 

Incarnate Word is likely to have a lot of trouble scoring this year. They have played 3 teams who aren't Division I this year, and they are averaging 66 points per game in those contests. They scored a miserable 37 points in a loss to Texas Tech as well. They are looking to slow the game down this year.

These early season tournaments on neutral sites have been very good to under bettors. In a sample size of more than 1,800 games, the under sits at 55.5% when the total is 134 points or higher. 

This game starts extra early and is in the Bahamas. A weird spot for youngsters and in the long run this type of thing helps the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Nevada always wants to run the floor. The Wolf Pack have athleticism at every spot on the floor and they are going to be tremendous on offense this year. The efficiency of this team on the offensive end should be among the best in the nation.

The key to this wager is BYU and their change in style of play. They decided to try slowing the game down last year and winning with defense. It didn't fit their personnel well. Dave Rose has a new primary assistant coach in Quincy Lewis. He is well-known for his uptempo systems. BYU local beat writers have all sorts of articles in the local newspapers about the change in pace and all the players are saying they are excited to get back to what they use to do (running). 

All kinds of fast pace basketball.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers hired a Virginia assistant coach (Ron Sanchez) to take over their job. Everyone knows Virginia plays extremely slowly, and that's what Charlotte will try to do this year as well. The 49ers have played really fast under previous coach Mark Price. It will be a big adjustment to this offense, and I think they'll be pretty inefficient in this system for a while.

Chattanooga has a coach who previously coached under Bo Ryan. That means he wants to value the ball and slow the game down. The Mocs weren't very good on defense last year, but they have improved shot blockers in the low post this year and I see their defensive numbers improving quite a bit.

A slow tempo for a number this high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's all on the line here in Boston on Sunday night. It's 3-3 and this is game seven. LeBron James and the Cavs shot the ball extremely well on Friday night en route to a 109-99 win over the Celtics in Cleveland. 

On the surface it would look like things didn't slow down as the games got more important in game six, but they actually did. The pace of game six was the slowest of any game in this series thus far. Both teams just shot the ball better than normal. The Cavs also got 15 offensive rebounds, which is not at all the usual for them. Boston made 12/28 from 3 point range in the loss. 

This game means everything to both teams and it would be surprising if the tempo sped up at all here. Every possession matters more. The winner of this game will be in the NBA Finals. 

Kevin Love is questionable for game seven with an injury, and if he misses the game or is less than 100 percent that helps the under. Love is a good offensive player, but he is a subpar defensive player. 

Look for better defensive effort and lower shooting percentages here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Celtics coasted to a 108-83 win in game one of this series. Cleveland was 4/26 from 3 point range in that game. The Cavs have some reliable 3 point shooters, and it is hard to imagine them not improving drastically from 3 point range in game two.

Boston's offense showed an ability to get into the paint at will. The Celtics have a quickness advantage at nearly every spot on the floor, and Brad Stevens' team should be able to continue to get to the rim against a Cavs defense that ranked second worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season.

In the last regular season game between these two, the total was 213. The total in game one was 204.5 and even 205 at some books. There has been a big adjustment made.

Cleveland and Boston both got fewer offensive rebounds than normal in game one, and they both got to the line less than normal. Even with Cleveland's miserable shooting performance, the game was within 12 points of this total.

I think the Celtics will look to score some in transition with their quickness advantage, and I see the Cavs offense looking much better here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers both shot the ball extremely well in the first couple games of the series. They have come back down to earth in their shooting in the last couple games. Closeout games in the NBA playoffs have tended to go under the total in a pretty big way in the past ten years, and I see some value on the under here.

Boston's defense ranked in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They were first in the NBA in 3 point FG percentage defense. Philadelphia was third in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the season. They were second in 3 point FG percentage defense. 

Ben Simmons is a great player, but his decision making and the decision making by the rest of the primary ball handlers on this 76ers team has hurt them in key spots in the playoffs. The 76ers had the highest turnover rate in the NBA this year.

There were 52 free throws in Game 4, which is a good amount higher than average in the NBA. In a game of this magnitude, the pace tends to slow down and the defenses play extremely hard.

A basic playoff system is a total of 196 or higher with a spread of the home team anywhere from -2.5 to +5.5 and the home team coming off a loss of 7 points or more. In those games, the under is 42-19 (68.9%). If you add in one more filter of public betting percentage of 40% or lower on the under it goes to 31-11 (73.3% to the under. This game fits the system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics torched the nets in Game One to defeat Philadelphia 117-101. Boston made a ton of tough 3 pointers in that one, and this Celtics team isn't made to win games like that. Boston wins with defense more often than not. The Celtics should get Jaylen Brown back for this one, and he's their best defender as well.

The Celtics and 76ers ranked number one and two in the NBA in 3 point field goal percentage defense in the regular season. In overall defensive efficiency numbers- the Celtics were first and Philly was 3rd in the season. These are two good defenses.

Boston doesn't want to get into a track meet with Philadelphia, and they were able to slow the pace down pretty well in Game One. 

Another reason to expect a lower scoring game here is the lack of turnovers in game one. Philadelphia carried a 16.0% turnover rate into Game One. They turned it over only 10.9% of the time. Boston carried a 14.1% turnover rate into Game One and they turned it over only 9.7% of the time. There should be more wasted trips in this contest.

Look for things to regress toward the mean here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday night. Indiana is down 3-2 after LeBron James nailed the 3 pointer at the buzzer to finish game five in spectacular fashion for the Cavs.

Indiana's defense has played very well in this series. The Pacers are working hard to keep the Cavs out of the paint. The Pacers are also doing a great job slowing down the tempo in this series. 

All five of the games in this series have stayed under the total. I think this one has a good chance to stay under as well. Indiana cannot get into a track meet, and they have been better at controlling the pace on their home floor. 

Game five stayed under this number by double digits despite 54 free throw attempts and 47 made free throws. That is far above average, especially since these two teams both ranked in the top five in the NBA at defending without fouling.

Closeout games in the NBA playoffs have tilted under strongly for a long time- and that is even more the case when the team oddsmakers are lower on is the home team like the Pacers are here. 

This one should be a dog fight, and I'll look for a slow tempo with so much on the line for both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I'm playing the under here as I look for the shooting numbers to normalize for these teams.

The Milwaukee Bucks have been shooting lights out the last 3 games. Milwaukee is shooting a ridiculous 56.3% from the floor in their last 3. They are shooting 45.2% from long distance. On the year, the Bucks shot 47.8% from the floor and 35.5% from 3 point range. 

Boston had the number one rated defensive when it comes to points allowed per possession during the regular season. The Celtics are better than they have shown defensively in this series. Marcus Smart was upgraded to questionable for this one and if he plays that is a big boost for the under.

The tempo in this series has been extremely slow. I expect that to continue. If you run efficiency projections for this game you come up with a total several points lower than this.

I'll expect a regression to the mean when it comes to shooting here in this pivotal game 5.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers have their blueprint for making this a series. They slow the tempo of the game down and be aggressive on defense going for steals and disrupting the Cavs offensive flow. 

The average possessions per game in the four regular season meetings between these two teams was nearly 6 possessions quicker than the first three games of this series have been. Game 3 was the slowest paced game, and Indiana has typically been able to slow the game down more on their home floor so I expect a slower tempo again here.

The Cavs defense has been improved in the playoffs thus far. This game means a bunch to the Cavs, and I would expect effort from them here.

Both of these teams are good at defending without fouling which is key.

None of the first three games in this series have finished even close to this high. Looking at scoring efficiency numbers- I believe this total should be around 200.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Sunday NBA Early Bird Special* The Boston Celtics were first in the NBA in defensive efficiency this year. Boston allowed 1.015 points per possession. They gave up 1.324 points per possession in Game 3 against Milwaukee. That isn't likely to happen again. 

Even with that ridiculous shooting by Milwaukee, the game very narrowly went past this posted total. I expect Brad Stevens (a tremendous coach), to have his team ready to go in Game 4, especially on the defensive end.

The last two games have seen shooting numbers in an extremely high area overall for both teams. Two games ago Boston averaged 1.301 and Milwaukee 1.149 points per possession (above average). 

The first two games saw posted totals of 200 and 199.5, and scoring efficiency averages I ran for this game were all in the high 190's. 

This number is inflated thanks to great shooting performances from the two teams in the last couple games. The tempo should stay slow and the defense should improve.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Indiana Pacers played at the slowest tempo in the NBA in their last 25 regular season games. The Pacers changed their style of play in the middle of the season, and it worked very nicely when they slowed things down and turned the game into a halfcourt battle. 

The Indiana Pacers have slowed the game down nicely in the first two games of this series. Those two games have played to the two slowest paced games between the Pacers and Cavs this year. Indiana will try to do the same again here. 

Cleveland and Indiana both rank in the top five in the NBA at least free throws for their opponent. Indiana also ranks in the bottom five in the NBA in least free throws attempted. 

Here's a basic, but strong NBA playoffs first round system that this game fits:

-A total of 191 or higher

-Home team win percentage of 61% or less on the year

-Road team win percentage of 50%-68% on the year

The under is a whopping 77-33 (70%) in the last 110 games that fit this system. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz had the best defense in the NBA by a wide margin in the second half of the season. Utah wasn't good defensively in game one. Oklahoma City made 14/29 shots from 3 point range. Paul George nailed 8/11 from long range. The Thunder averaged better than 1.12 points per possession. Utah allowed less than 1 point per possession over the last 3 months of the season. 

Utah knocked down 11/28 from 3 point range as well. The Thunder were poor in their pick and roll defense, and they should improve in that area in game two.

These two teams didn't play a regular season game that went above 194. Though these teams are much different now (no Roberson for OKC) and that bumps the total up some, game one looks like an aberration to me.

Mitchell has been a star for Utah this year. He is likely to play here, but he is less than 100 percent.

The defenses should improve here, and the tempo should slow as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers put on a shooting clinic in game one. They shot a ridiculous 18/28 from three point range in blowing out the Heat 130-103. The Heat also made 12/26 from three point range in game one. 

Philadelphia averaged 1.276 points per possession in game one. They averaged 1.074 points per possession on the season. Even if you want to say the 76ers are better on offense now than they were early in the year (I think that is true), the 76ers only average 1.127 points per possession in their last 10 games. Their shooting percentages should regress. Also important to note is that the 76ers only turned the ball over on 8.5% of their possessions in game one, and on the year they average turnovers on 16.1% of possessions. 

Miami shot a little better than average from the floor in game one as well. 

These two defenses ranked third and seventh in the NBA in points per possession allowed in the regular season. There's no reason to expect the great shooting to continue.

Is it possible that the red hot shooting will continue? Of course it is. Still, all of my tempo based efficiency projections point to a total of 209-210 here. This number is inflated because of recent shooting numbers from the 76ers. Though it is a hard bet to make when you see the 76ers throw in everything in game one, I have to take the value on the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Portland Blazers host the New Orleans Pelicans in game one of this playoff series.

Portland has been a great under team this year. The Blazers defense has been far better than anyone expected. Portland ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They rank 19th in the NBA in tempo, so they are slower than average. In the last 12 games alone, they rank even slower at 25th in tempo.

New Orleans plays very quickly, and that's why we have a high total here. Still, the Pelicans are a different team than they were earlier this year. The Pelicans have Emeka Okafor playing a lot of minutes now, and he's much better on the defensive end than the offensive end. Solomon Hill fits in that category as well. DeMarcus Cousins was an offensive force, and these guys are a big offensive downgrade. The opposite is true on defense. New Orleans ranks 13th in defensive efficiency for the year, but they are an impressive 3rd in defensive efficiency in their last 15 games.

The most recent and most important game between these two this year was 107-103. I expect a similar type of game here. Things usually slow down a bit in the playoffs, and I think these two defenses are both top ten defenses in the NBA with their current rosters.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets play on Wednesday night in a game that will decide who gets into the playoffs and who has to watch the playoffs from home.

While both of these teams have been bad overall on defense this year and good on offense, they do both play at a slow pace. The pace of the game should be even slower since the game means so much in this case. This is essentially a one-game playoff to decide who continues.

There are a couple interesting numbers to show that these two are playing harder on defense of late as well. In the last five games, both of these teams rank in the top 9 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In their last 3 games only, both rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are both in the bottom 10 in the league on the year in that number. They have tightened up the defense as the games have gotten more important.

With so much on the line, this is a high total. Look for a game where both teams slow things down and try to take care of the basketball. The defensive effort should be much better than an average NBA game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs host the Portland Blazers in a battle of teams who will be fighting hard for the playoff standings. Portland is in the playoffs, but they are working to secure the third seed. San Antonio could still miss the playoffs if they can't things around late in the regular season.

These types of games have proven very good to under bettors in the past, and I see no reason why that would change going forward. As things tighten up and slow down, the under holds value.

I leaned strongly to the under here to start with and I have to play it after I see the referee crew for this contest. All 3 refs are big under guys. Between the 3 refs, if you had played the under in all of their career games as a ref- you would be up 79 units. 

The under is 5-0 in Blazers last 5 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. A 9-0 angle.

Take the under here. 

*5 Star NBA TOP Total of the MONTH* The Cleveland Cavaliers go to Philadelphia to take on the 76ers on Friday night. This has turned into a massive game for both teams. These teams are jockeying for third place in the Eastern Conference, and they are just barely ahead of Indiana who sits in 5th place in the Eastern Conference.

Late in the season when two good teams play against each other, I like to look to the under. Here's a great system that tracks something like this. 

*Late in the season (between game 70 and 80 in the season) when teams in the same conference who have both won 60% or more of their games meet the under is a whopping 94-58-2 since 2005. That's 62% wins for the under.

Cleveland has slowed down of late. They are playing at the 28th quickest tempo out of 30 teams in the NBA in their last five games. Philly is only allowing 0.922 points per possession in their last five games, and in their last ten games they are easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

With this game meaning a lot to both teams, I think they'll both be trying hard on defense. The pace should slow a bit as well. 

The under is 11-1 in the Cavs last 12 games when playing on 0 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the 76ers last 4 playing on one day of rest. A 20-1 trend.

Take the under. TOP Total of the MONTH

*3 NCAA BB Championship Game CASH* The Villanova Wildcats shot the lights out on Saturday at the Alamodome. I had the under in that one and lost thanks to their sharpshooting. Kansas' defense was very weak in that game, and the Wildcats buried a bunch of open three-point jumpers. 

Villanova is certainly capable of shooting the ball really well against anyone. This is unquestionably the best offense in the country. Still, this is a neutral court and they are playing against a team that ranks number 3 in KenPomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings. Michigan has the highest ranked defense Villanova has played against all year.

Every number I ran for this one had the total at 141.5 or 142. It's very rare for totals to be higher than my projections in the NCAA Tournament with neutral sites tending to be a fairly big positive for the under. 

This number is higher because of the great shooting from Villanova on Saturday. I'll look to play back on the under after this inflation of the number.

Xavier Simpson is a good defender for Michigan and the Wolverines should be able to put a lot more pressure on the ball and defend the 3 point line a lot better than Kansas. 

The Wolverines are 324th in overall tempo and Villanova is middle of the pack. This game shouldn't be played very fast. 

Both teams do a great job defending without fouling and neither team gets many offensive rebounds.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NBA TOP Total of the WEEK* The Los Angeles Clippers host the Indiana Pacers in an early Sunday afternoon game at Staples Center. The Clippers are on the outside looking in for the playoffs, and this is a game they absolutely have to win. The Pacers are playing for seeding in a tight Eastern Conference race. Both teams have plenty of reasons to be ready to go for this one.

The Indiana Pacers rank dead last in the NBA in tempo of late. Indiana has made a significant change to their style in the second half of the year. The Pacers are last in the NBA in tempo by more than one full possession per game in their last 10 games. 

It's difficult for Indiana games to get this high scoring without some really high shooting numbers because of their ability to slow the game down. The last time these two teams played- there were 213 points scored and the Clippers shot 55% from the floor in that one.

The Pacers have had 18 straight games stay under this total in regulation. 

Early Sunday games have been great under plays in the long run especially in West Coast games. This one gets the added benefit of being a game that both teams badly need when it comes to playoff positioning. 

Take the under. TOP Total of the WEEK 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams are good offenses. They both clearly have the potential to score a lot of points. This is a huge game though, with the winner set to play for a national title, and this kind of a total is often hard to get to in a game of this magnitude.

Villanova has only allowed one team to score more than 1 point per possession against them in the NCAA Tournament (West Virginia averaged 1.03 points per possession). Jay Wright has said of late that he has been extremely happy with the progress his team has made defensively.

Kansas played their best defensive game of the year last game against Duke. The Jayhawks aren't great on defense, but they are likely better than their numbers on the season would suggest.

Both teams rarely get to the line and both teams rarely foul. If the jump shots aren't falling as much as normal, this one should be lower scoring than expected. This is played in the Alamodome which is a very unique shooters backdrop.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* North Texas and San Francisco play game three of a series to win the College Basketball Invitational. This is a unique format and this game is for all the marbles.

Early in these smaller postseason tournaments, the over has had great value through the years. That isn't the case late in the tournament though. Why? These teams want to be here now, and they want to win the tournament.

The under is 47-26 in the last 73 games in the semifinals or finals of the NIT/CBI/CIT Tournaments. 

These two teams both excel at getting defensive rebounds, so second chance opportunities should be hard to come by. They both shoot a lot of 3 pointers, and both defenses are very good against the 3 ball.

This line is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Utah/Penn State NIT CASH* The Utah Utes and Penn State Nittany Lions meet on Thursday night in the NIT Finale. 

Penn State's defense ranks 18th overall in defensive efficiency in the country. Utah ranks 55th in defensive efficiency for the year, but if you look only at recent games Utah's defense has been much better than that.

Utah's average length of possession puts them 320th out of 351 in tempo, so they are very slow. Penn State is 248th in that same statistic. The tempo should stay slow here, and both defenses will be plenty motivated.

The NIT is played at Madison Square Garden which is the best under venue in college basketball. It's a tough shooting backdrop here, and the numbers prove it.

In the NIT semifinals/finals- totals of 129.5 or higher have gone 26-7 to the under against the closing line.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. The Boston Celtics are fifth. Utah is 14th in offensive efficiency in that time. Boston is 25th.

The Celtics continue to defend well, but without Irving and Smart this offense has really struggled. Marcus Morris is very questionable for this game as well. 

On the year, Boston is number one in overall defensive efficiency in the NBA. Utah is number two. 

Utah's defense is on another level at home. They are giving up 1.054 points per possession on the road this year. They are allowing only 0.98 points per possession at home. That is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency at home.

Boston is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the road allowing only 1.014 points per possession on the road.

When Kyrie Irving isn't on the floor this year, Boston's tempo has been the slowest of any team in the league. 

Signs point to a low scoring game between two very good defenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The NIT is a tournament where we've seen a ton of overs through the years, but once you get late in the tournament things change drastically. Earlier in the tournament, many of the teams aren't very interested. Once you get to the semifinals, the teams who are there are plenty motivated to win the whole thing. 

Also of note is the fact that this game is played at Madison Square Garden. This is the best under arena in the country. 

In the NIT Semifinals/Finals- the under is 24-7 in the last 31 games with a total of 130 or higher. 

Madison Square Garden unders are at about 60% in all neutral site games in college basketball in the last ten seasons. 

Penn State and Mississippi State are both teams who are significantly better on defense than offense. Look for this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors host the Utah Jazz on Sunday night. Utah lit up the Golden State defense for 129 points in their last meeting. I don't think Golden State will forget that one. 

Golden State's injury issues have gotten severe. Draymond Green is expected to play here, but Curry, Thompson, and Durant are all out. Other key backups are questionable as well. Golden State's potent offense isn't nearly as potent right now. In the last five games with all these injuries, Golden State is 22nd in offensive efficiency in the NBA. Defensively, they are playing very well. They are 4th in the NBA in that time on defense. Green coming back helps the defense a bunch.

Utah has been the best defense in the NBA by a wide margin in the last ten games. Expect that strong defense to continue here. Utah will look to slow the game down as well.

The numbers show Sunday is the best under day in the NBA in the long run by a large margin. The under has proven to have big value in the NBA late in the year when two good teams face off. This fits both and I like the value here quite a bit.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Top Total of the WEEK* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Blazers meet in OKC on Sunday in a game that means a ton in the playoff standings. Right now, the Blazers are third in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is fourth and only one game behind them. 

The Thunder have been a great under team against other top teams. The under is 12-3 in their last 15 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is also 19-9 in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record overall.

This is a higher total than any of their first three meetings against each other were. I don't think this one should be the highest total yet this year when this game means so much to both teams and we are near the end of the regular season. 

Sunday is the best under day in the NBA in the long run by a large margin. The under has proven to have big value in the NBA late in the year when two good teams face off. This fits both and I like the value here quite a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Friday Late Night BAILOUT* The Boston Celtics are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season as a whole. The Portland Blazers are 7th. Portland and Boston both play slightly slower than the league average as far as tempo. 

Kyrie Irving is out for the Celtics here. Also out are Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown. In their last five games without those guys- Boston is averaging only 0.981 points per possession on offense. That is 28th in the NBA. 

Portland is a good offensive team, but Boston's defense is solid and the Blazers have shown to be a team that slows down the pace if they have the lead late.

Two good teams late in the season is a good under angle. From game 60-80 of the regular season- when both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher, the under is cashing at a really impressive 61% clip in the last ten years.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils have switched to the zone, and it has worked very well. Duke's defense now ranks eighth in the country in defensive efficiency. Since they switched to the zone, they have been top five in the country defensively. 

Syracuse ranks fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Orange use that excellent matchup zone to keep opponents uncomfortable. The Orange are also slowing the game down more than ever in the NCAA Tournament. All 3 of their games have paced to 60 possessions. 

Syracuse relies heavily on getting to the line to get some offensive production. Duke is first in the nation when it comes to defending without fouling. 

The under in the Sweet 16 overall since 2005 is 56-46. The under when a team is favored by 7.5 or more is 17-7. Duke is favored big here, and they do a nice job slowing the game down when they have a big lead late.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Villanova Wildcats were easily the best offense in the nation this year. Villanova is averaging a whopping 1.276 points per possession on the season. Villanova has a wealth of long range shooters. They have five guys who put up a ton of 3's and all of them shoot 39.1% or better from long range.

West Virginia this year is the best offense Bob Huggins has had since coming to West Virginia. They rank 10th in the country in offensive efficiency. Jevon Carter is a big reason why. Carter shoots 40% from long range and 86% from the line. Daxter Miles has become a nice offensive player as well. 

West Virginia is much weaker on defense this year than they have been the last two years. They are 300th out of 351 teams in the country in 3 point field goal percentage defense. West Virginia also fouls at one of the 15 highest rates in the country. Villanova shoots 40.2% from long range and 77.4% from the free throw line. Barring a rare off night shooting, Nova should put up quite a few points here.

Villanova's defense has typically been top five in the nation of late, but they are 20th this year. West Virginia should get a lot of second chances against a Nova frontline that doesn't have as much bulk. 

West Virginia will keep using the press to push the pace, and I think this one goes over the number.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT Totals CASH* The Indiana Pacers rank 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last 10 games. Indiana also ranks fourth in defensive efficiency in that 10 game period. The Pacers rate 25th in offensive efficiency during that span.

The Clippers rank fourth in the NBA in tempo in their last ten. The Clippers are 12th in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have actually been better defensively in non-conference games. The Pacers have played two possessions per game slower in their home games as they do a better job controlling the tempo. The Clippers have played one possession per game slower on the road as well.

In their last 19 games the Pacers have played one game that has gone over this posted total.

This is a late season game that means quite a bit to both teams- and that is a positive for the under. The Clippers still have a chance to get in the playoffs, and the Pacers are in a big battle for positioning in the Eastern Conference.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz have been an under machine at home in recent years. Utah is always good defensively, but they are elite defensively on their home floor. The Jazz have been the best defense in the NBA at home for the season as a whole.

Of late Utah's defense has been on a whole different level. Utah is allowing only 0.908 points per possession in their last ten games. That's easily best in the NBA. In that time frame, the Spurs are second on defense and they are allowing 0.997 points per possession.

Utah's offense is 20th in efficiency in their last ten games. Atlanta's offense is 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Hawks have actually been better on defense on the road than at home this year.

Utah games have gone under the total at a high rate against bad teams. In Utah's last 181 home games against a team with a win percentage of less than 50%- the under is 111-70 (61.3% unders). It is 6-1 in the last 7 in this spot. 

Look for Utah to control the style of play here and keep this one under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels have been one of my favorite under teams in the last few seasons. Randy Bennett's team plays the same style of basketball every year. They are a very slow paced team who is extremely efficient on offense and solid on defense. 

St. Mary's ranks 341st out of 351 in the nation in tempo. They will slow this game down. 

Washington has struggled offensively this year. This is a team that shoots a lot of contested jumpers. Washington averages 1.064 points per possession at home. They average only 0.945 points per possession on the road. The Huskies zone defense is unique and St. Mary's has been slightly less efficient against zones than man to man defense this year.

I expect St. Mary's to win this game and the spread suggests a fairly comfortable win. If that is the case, it helps the under. The Gaels are excellent at slowing the game down when they have a lead in the second half.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines are very good at controlling the pace of the game. Michigan is 332nd in the nation in tempo. The Wolverines are 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. It is their improvement on defense that has made this team so much better this year.

Michigan is elite (top 3 in the country) in transition defense. Houston tries to get points in transition, but those should be a lot harder to come by here than normal. The Cougars typically take advantage of offensive rebounds as well, but Michigan is very good on the defensive boards.

Neither team is very good at getting to the free throw line, and I've noticed that refs have in general had a slower whistle in the NCAA Tournament than in the regular season. 

Both teams like to utilize big men at the top of the key as a passer, but both defenses have athletic big men to matchup with them well.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils zone defense has been tremendous. Since they moved to that zone, Duke has been a great under team. It has been hard for the oddsmakers to adjust to their slowing teams down so much better on the defensive end. 

Rhode Island has had major problems shooting it from outside down the stretch. They shot only 35.4% from long range for the year. They shot 32.5% from three point range in A 10 action this year. 

Rhode Island is good when using full court pressure at slowing the game down with zone pressure. Look for them to extend that pressure to try to slow Duke's offense some here. Duke has committed an unexpectedly high number of turnovers on the year. 

Duke doesn't foul on defense. The Blue Devils are 2nd in the country at defending without fouling. 

Rhode Island's pressure should create turnovers here, and Duke's zone should force Rhode Island into a lot of bad looks in halfcourt sets.

This is played at a neutral site. When Duke has been favored by 9 or more and the total is 142 or higher in the last 10 years- the under has cashed at 59%.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks and Butler Bulldogs square off in what should be a really good game on Friday afternoon. Arkansas always looks to run, while Butler plays at a moderate pace, but these two teams are more similar than you would think.

Both of these teams are significantly better on offense than defense. Arkansas is 17th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are 100th in defensive efficiency. Butler is 296th in the nation at defending beyond the 3 point line, and Arkansas is shooting better than 40% from the 3 point line on the year. 

Arkansas is great in transition on offense, and they are also poor in transition defense. Butler uses a lot of cutters in their halfcourt sets, and Arkansas has struggled on defense against offenses that use similar plays.

Butler is great at the free throw line at 77%. Arkansas fouls at one of the highest rates in the country. 

Look for the offenses to have the upper hand. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia State Panthers have a very good coach in Ron Hunter. Hunter has his team playing an excellent zone defense. According to Synergy, the Georgia State zone ranks among the top 10% of zone defenses played in the country this year.

Cincinnati is second in the country in defensive efficiency. The Bearcats contest everything well, and Georgia State isn't going to get a bunch of open looks from 3 point range like they usually get in league play. 

Georgia State isn't likely to speed the game up when they are packing in a zone and trying to make Cincinnati beat them over the top. Cincinnati ranks 322nd overall in tempo in the country. 

Cincinnati and Georgia State have both played some very low scoring games on neutral courts so far this season. Neutral courts and a lot on the line are usually good for unders. Bridgestone Arena hosts this one, and this is probably the best under venue in the first round of the NCAA Tournament because of a tricky shooting backdrop. The under is 36-26 in the last 62 at Bridgestone.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Cougars play in an American Athletic Conference where nearly no one is willing to run with them. Houston wants to play quickly, and they'll get the chance here against San Diego State. 

San Diego State Coach Brian Dutcher made it a point of emphasis for the team to play quickly this year. The Aztecs rank 70th in shortest average possession length in the country. They will look to push in this one.

Houston is excellent on the offensive glass, and San Diego State hasn't played many teams who are good on the offensive glass. I expect Houston to create plenty of second chance opportunities.

Both defenses are pretty solid, but their numbers may look a bit better than they actually are because they don't play against many good offenses in their league. 

I think the pace will be there and this line is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs have gotten much better defensively late in the season. Mark Few expressed concern about their defense midway through the year, and the defense improved in a big way near the end of the year. Gonzaga has plenty of athleticism and length to contest jumpers. 

UNC Greensboro plays a very unique zone press that is designed to slow the game down. They will look to make Gonzaga take a lot of time getting the ball up court, and prevent transition baskets. According to Synergy, UNC Greensboro is the number one ranked transition defense in the country. Since Gonzaga gets a bunch of baskets in transition normally, this should give them some trouble.

This game is played at 11:30 am local time, and that is a help for the under as well, especially on a neutral site.

Look for this one to be a little sloppier than expected.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies offense is reliant on being able to get to the line. Washington takes a lot of bad jump shots, and if they aren't getting to the free throw line for freebies they can go through scoring droughts. 

Boise State has been very good at defending without fouling this year. They are first in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage, which is huge for them. Washington struggles with defensive rebounding out of the zone, but Boise State hasn't been good at getting offensive boards.

Washington is 152nd in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 63rd in defensive efficiency. Boise State is 78th in offensive efficiency and Washington is 42nd in defensive efficiency. 

With the line inflated with over money coming in early here, I like the value on the under.

I see these as two teams who are good at making the other team work hard for each shot. I suspect these two will be invested in this game and that is good for defense and the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames host the St Francis PA Red Flash tonight in a CIT contest. Unlike the NIT, there are no rule changes in this tournament so it will just be the normal 3 point shot length and normal foul situations. 

Postseason smaller tournaments have been great to over bettors in the past, and I think this is another spot where the over holds value. UIC plays at the 21st fastest tempo in the country. St Francis PA is 297th on defense when it comes to efficiency, but they are a solid 133rd on the offensive end.

UIC will turn this into a track meet, and they should win as well. St Francis will have to keep playing quick to try to catch up.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels play at the 341st tempo in the country out of 351 teams. St. Mary's isn't likely to be one of those teams who change the way they play in the NIT or a smaller postseason tournament (many teams do play faster). Still, their number has been bet up quickly just like the other games in these tournaments.

The NIT is experimenting with a lot of rule changes this year. One is moving the 3 point line back 20 inches. That in and of itself should help the under a bit especially in a game where both teams shoot a bunch of 3 point shots. The game being played in quarters shouldn't make much of a difference here. Neither of these teams foul very much.

Southeastern Louisiana has had major trouble scoring against good teams this year. They could only score 50 points against Valpo and only 50 points against Notre Dame. SE Louisiana plays at the 298th tempo in the country.

St. Mary's is well known for slowing things down to an extremely slow level once they have a big lead. They should control this game from the beginning.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Davidson Wildcats and Rhode Island Rams have met twice this year. The first game was 131 points and the second was 124 points. This one is on a neutral site, and Davidson must win this game to get into the NCAA Tournament. If anything, I would expect a slower tempo in this game. 

Davidson has played their first two A 10 Tournament games at only 56 and 58 possessions. They averaged a whopping 1.39 points per possession on Friday and a ridiculous 1.41 points per possession on Saturday.

Rhode Island has given Davidson trouble in the past with their aggressive defense that doesn't allow many looks from three point range. Rhode Island is first in the A 10 in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Davidson shoots the most 3's in the conference, and they are very good at them.

Davidson plays at the 335th tempo out of 351 teams in the country. Rhode Island is middle of the pack at 145th. 

In the last seven meetings between these two teams, only one has topped 131 points in regulation. In a game of this importance, I'll side with the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies take on the Eastern Washington Eagles in a battle to decide who gets to the NCAA Tournament from the Big Sky Conference. 

Montana is the best defense in this conference by a large margin. Eastern Washington is third in the conference in defensive efficiency.

Eastern Washington slows the tempo down almost as much as anyone in the conference. Montana has had some games where they go very slowly as well. I think a game of this importance is likely to play to a slower tempo.

Both teams are playing for the third straight day, and conference tournament finals where both teams are tired have been strong to the under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*This line has moved down since I selected it this morning. I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 137.5 and 3 star down to 135.5. Thank you.* 

*4 Star Play Under* Both regular season meetings between these two stayed more than 10 points under this posted total. Now, they are playing at Honda Center in Anaheim, which is clearly a big under facility. This is a hockey arena with tough shooting backdrops. These are two teams who are accustomed to playing in small arenas. The shooting numbers should be expected to be lower than average.

Both teams play at a relatively slow pace, and this is obviously a very important game for both of them with it being win or go home.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The line drop here has been so big that I have to take the over. These two teams commit more fouls than any other teams in the Big 12. There should be a ton of free throws attempted in this one. Both West Virginia and Texas Tech are excellent on the offensive glass, and both struggle with defensive rebounding. Second chance points should be key here as well.

The Red Raiders defense for the season has been great, but in their last few games it has fallen off badly. They are allowing 0.914 points per possession on the year. In their last five games, they are allowing 1.141 points per possession. 

Both regular season games went over this number, and this isn't an arena that has been strong to the under like some of the other neutral sites. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Utah Valley and Grand Canyon played twice during the regular season. Those two games finished with 124 and 119 points. It was primarily because the game was played at a very slow pace in each of those contests. 

This game means a bunch to both teams. They are one win away for playing for a NCAA Tournament berth. This is on a neutral floor which is a good thing for the under as well.

Grand Canyon is number one in the nation in 3 point percentage defense. Utah Valley relies a lot on 3 pointers on the offensive end.

I think this line is several points too high considering the situation and the style these two have played at in the first two contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pelicans are expected to be without Anthony Davis here. That's a massive hit to their offense. Look for Emeka Okafor to get a lot more minutes here, and Okafor is much better on the defensive end than offense. 

The Pelicans are 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 10 games. Washington is dead last in the NBA in tempo in their last 10 games.

The Wizards have consistently slowed the game down without John Wall. Otto Porter Jr. is a gametime decision as well.

The referee crew is very strong to the under in their career stats.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets have been much better defensively this year, and they have been great defensively of late. Clint Capela has been key in the frontcourt on defense. 

Houston has actually been better on the road on defense than at home. They are third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in road games. They are 6th in the league in defensive efficiency in their last 12 games overall.

Toronto is second in the league in defensive efficiency in their last 12 games. They are first in the league in defensive efficiency at home. 

Also important is that both teams haven't been playing very fast of late. Toronto ranks 22nd in the NBA in tempo in their last 12 contests. Houston ranks 27th in the NBA in tempo in their last 12 games. 

Both of these offenses are clearly excellent, but this number is very high for two underrated defenses and two teams that aren't playing as quickly as most people believe.

The under is 19-6-1 in the Rockets last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record when the total is 211.5 or higher.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers are third in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 255th in tempo as well. This is a team that is good at slowing the game down and winning with ball control and solid defense.

Mississippi State made its first 6 three pointers last night against LSU. That's usually Mississippi State's weakness is long range shooting. It's unlikely they will shoot that well again, especially against a great defense.

The Scottrade Center has been a great under venue through the years. I expect a slow pace and solid defense on both ends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Richmond Spiders defense has been awful down the stretch. Only two of their last ten games have stayed under this total despite them not playing at a very fast pace. 

St. Bonaventure has played at an extremely quick tempo all year. The Bonnies have multiple long range shooters who should get lots of open looks against this Richmond defense.

The first game between these two was played to a pace of 81 possessions. It was 97-88. This one shouldn't be that high, but I think this total is too low. 

Both teams are clearly better on offense than defense and the sharp money here is on the over ( more often than not the sharps like the under). 72% of bets and 99% of money is on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters have the best ranked defense in the Big West. UC Irvine ranks fifth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a tremendous defensive team.

Hawaii was third in the Big West in the regular season in defensive efficiency. They are great at forcing turnovers, and the biggest weakness of the UC Irvine offense is their problems with turnovers.

The two games during the regular season both finished at 123 points. These are two teams that can go through some long droughts due to subpar shooting numbers. 

Factoring in the venue gives the under more value. The Honda Center is a massive arena built for hockey. In the last 47 neutral site games played at Honda Center the under is 32-15. These Big West teams aren't accustomed to playing in huge arenas. 

I expect the defenses to have the upper hand in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Mississippi State and LSU both need to win a minimum of two games in the SEC Tournament to even have a thought of getting in the NCAA Tournament. These are teams who have proven they can win big games (LSU against Michigan and Mississippi State at Texas A&M). This isn't one of those games where both teams know their season is over and they don't care. 

This one is at Scottrade Center in St. Louis. The Scottrade Center has been an amazing venue for under bettors. This is a huge arena made for hockey and the shooting backdrop isn't favorable. The under is a whopping 47-20 in the last 67 games played at Scottrade Center with a total of 124.5 or higher. This is the first year for the SEC Tournament at this venue. 

Both of these teams prefer playing at a relatively slow pace, so I don't expect a fast tempo here. They just played to a 66 possession game this past Saturday and it stayed well under this total. This game means a lot more to both teams and the defenses should be engaged here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Texas Longhorns played twice in the regular season. The first game played to a total of 125 points and the second was 128 in regulation. These two teams are way better on defense than offense, and both want to play slowly.

Most teams in the Big 12 push the tempo so these teams have some pretty high scoring games overall, but when they play against each other we have a slow paced game with terrific defense. I expect the same thing here today.

This is a played on a neutral floor, and this is a game Texas needs to win. They might make the NCAA Tournament without this one, but they can seal the deal if they win in this one. Important games usually mean more defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays and Providence Friars meet at Madison Square Garden on Thursday afternoon. Madison Square Garden has been the best under arena in the country for college basketball for many years. This is a huge arena with tough shooting backdrops. Poor shooting numbers are quite common at MSG.

Providence is right on the bubble. If they win this game, they'll be in the NCAA Tournament. If they lose this game, they'll be sweating in a big way on Sunday. 

Creighton and Providence played twice this year, and one of the two games went under the total. This is the most important game of the three, and it is played at MSG. 

Providence has consistently slowed the tempo in recent games against much faster foes. I'll expect them to do the same thing here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies just played the Alabama Crimson Tide this past Saturday. They will play them again here. In the two games in the regular season between these two teams, the final totals were 136 and 134 points. 

Now, Alabama has a game that they must win to have a chance at the NCAA Tournament. Alabama was the best defensive team in the SEC in the regular season. Opponents averaged only 0.99 points per possession against the Crimson Tide. 

If you look at Texas A&M and Alabama on the season as a whole, this is a matchup of two teams who are much better on defense than offense. Alabama is 121st in the land in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency. Texas A&M is 74th on offense and 12th on defense for the year.

The Scottrade Center has been an amazing venue for under bettors. This is a huge arena made for hockey and the shooting backdrop isn't favorable. The under is a whopping 47-20 in the last 67 games played at Scottrade Center with a total of 124.5 or higher.

With this an early start time and a game that means a lot, I'll take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and Texas State Bobcats meet. I've had the under both times these teams met during the season. Both of those games stayed under the posted total comfortably. I think this one will as well.

These two teams both like to play very slowly. Texas State plays at the second slowest pace in the country behind only Virginia. 

Both of these teams have major problems with turnovers on the offensive end. Coastal Carolina ranks 342nd when it comes to taking care of the basketball on offense (out of 351 teams) and Texas State ranks 324th. 

A slow tempo with a bunch of wasted possessions by turnovers definitely lends itself to an under. This one is on a neutral court which is in general a positive for the under.

The four meetings between these two last year and this year have all finished with a combined 113 points or lower (with one staying that low even after OT). 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There is a bunch on the line here. These two teams were the two best teams in the conference on defense, and things should tighten up on offense with so much on the line in this contest. Also expect things to slow down in the tempo a bit here. Both teams are playing for the third straight day. This is a good situation for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Northeastern and College of Charleston are the two best defensive teams in the CAA and they meet here. Both of them like to slow the game down as well. This is a game that determines who will get to the NCAA Tournament, and both teams are tired after playing a lot in recent days. This is a good under spot and situation with a bunch on the line in this contest.

This one fits a strong system: when both teams are playing in at least their third game in the last four days and the game is on a neutral site the under is 151-99 (60.4%) since 2005.

Take the under.

Rotation #740 Fairfield/Iona under 156.5

*4 Star Play Under* The Albany Times Union Center has been an under gold mine in recent years. I'm not going to buck the trend. Especially with two teams who are worn out and playing for the fourth time in a very short period. This is an extremely high total considering the circumstances. The winner of this game goes to the NCAA Tournament. Both of these teams are capable of scoring a lot, but with this gym and no rest I'm taking the under and expecting some scoring droughts. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston is the favorite to win the CAA Championship. C of C wins by playing much better defense than most teams in this league. They also prefer to slow the game down. In fact, they are 327th in the country in tempo. 

William & Mary is one of the best offenses in the country, and they aren't good on defense. They are the reason this total is so high, but for a postseason game at a neutral site this number is too high. These two teams played an extremely high scoring game in the final game of the regular season where there were a ridiculous 67 free throw attempts. That is unlikely to happen again.

The first game in the regular season between these two stayed under this total by a point despite very good shooting percentages.

This is a win or go home game, and with one really good defense involved, a total set this high is too high.

Both teams stayed much lower than their normal scoring total yesterday in their first game at this neutral site.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There hasn't been an under arena in the country than the Times Union Center in recent years. The under is a whopping 30-10 in the last 40 neutral site games played there. The shooting backdrop is a problem at this large venue.

Quinnipiac slows the game down, and I think they'll be able to slow things down significantly against Fairfield here. 

Both of these two teams shoot a bunch of three pointers. That isn't typically a good thing when you are playing in a tough shooting gym like this one. In the league this year, Fairfield made 34.9% of their 3 pointers. Quinnipiac made 33.3% of their 3 pointers.

It wouldn't be a big surprise to see ugly shooting numbers in this arena and with everything on the line. The loser of this game is done for the season.

When the under is 134 or higher and both teams are playing at least their third game in four days- the under is 96-59 in the last 155 contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers rank 17th in the NBA in tempo in their last 12 games. The Washington Wizards rank as the slowest paced team in the league in that time frame. Indiana is 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in that time and Washington is 14th. They are 13th and 11th in offensive efficiency.

Sunday has historically been easily the best under day in the NBA. The under is 39-19 in Washington's last 58 Sunday games. The under is 37-29 in Indiana's last 66 Sunday games.

These two played a game that went to 213 last month, but the shooting numbers were clearly above average in that game. The Wizards are slowing the pace down more now than they were at that time as well.

The under is 9-2-1 in the Pacers last 12 road games. The under is 4-0 in Washington's last 4 games.

I see a slow tempo and average shooting numbers leading to an under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Chicago Ramblers have been the best team in the Missouri Valley Conference all year. Loyola Chicago slows the game down. The Ramblers rank in the bottom 50 teams in terms of tempo in the country. 

Illinois State plays quicker, but the RedBirds haven't been very efficient on offense in the conference. They are averaging only 1.007 points per possession in MVC play.

The two games in the regular season between these two teams were both 129 points combined. Now, they go to Scottrade Center to play in one of the best under gyms in the country. 

Another strong system here is both teams being tired- when teams are playing at least their third game in four days and the total is 134 or higher- the under is a whopping 96-59 (62%) since 2005.

The MVC is all about defense, and I think this title game comes with strong defense from both teams again.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters and the UC Davis Aggies meet on Saturday night in a huge game for both programs. These teams are tied at the top of the Big West. The winner of this game will win the Big West regular season title.

UC Irvine is 5th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. This Irvine team is tremendous on the defensive end. They play at a relatively slow pace, and on offense they are 245th in efficiency out of 351 teams. Their offense struggles largely because they have so many turnovers and wasted opportunities.

UC Davis isn't as good offensively as they were earlier in the year, because Chima Moneke is suspended. He was arguably the best player in the league, and his low post skills and offensive rebounding prowess powered this team.

The first meeting between these two was 64-53, and Moneke had 20 points in that contest.

This game means so much to both teams, and I think the defenses will be ready to go.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Ole Miss has played significantly faster since interim Coach Tony Madlock took over from Andy Kennedy. The Rebels host the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday night, and neither of these teams have anything to play for here. 

Ole Miss is 63rd in the country in offensive efficiency. Vanderbilt is 27th in the country in offensive efficiency. Ole Miss is 155th in defensive efficiency. Vanderbilt is a woeful 227th in defensive efficiency. The offenses have a significant advantage here.

Late in the season, when I find two teams who don't care about a game I always lean to the over. There is no reason for these two to be concerned about this one. They've had a disappointing year, and now they are ready to play in the SEC Tournament.

Take the over. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Total of Week* The Washington Huskies have been the best defense in the Pac 12 this year. Washington's matchup zone that Mike Hopkins brought over from Syracuse has stumped the Pac 12.

The Huskies are right on the edge of the NCAA Tournament, and they absolutely need to win this game. Washington's defensive effort here should be very strong. The Huskies have played 17 games in the Pac 12, and 12 of the 17 have stayed under this number.

Oregon is out of the NCAA Tournament for now, but the Ducks would still like to play their win in. The Ducks are coming off a disappointing loss at Washington State where their defense wasn't very good. Expect Dana Altman's team to come out with a lot more focus in this one.

The first meeting between these two was 65-40. The shooting in that one was terrible, and this will be higher than that game, but I think this is several points too high.

Both teams have something to play for, and Washington's defense is the best unit on the floor here.

Take the under. TOP Total of the Week 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs and Bradley Braves meet on Friday afternoon. This is the first game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament for both of these teams.

This game is played at the Scottrade Center, where the under has been extremely dominant. This is a huge hockey arena and the shooting backdrops are difficult. Combine that with the fact that most of these MVC teams are very solid on defense and questionable on offense, and you get a bunch of unders.

With a total of 124.5 or higher, the under is a whopping 42-16 in the last 58 games played at the Scottrade Center.

Bradley relies heavily on getting to the line on offense. Drake is easily first in the MVC at defending without fouling. They are 14th best in the country in that statistic.

The Drake offense got the least offensive rebounds of any team in the MVC this year. Drake's offense was great at home this year, but struggled away from home. Drake averaged only 0.972 points per possession away from home. They are averaging only 0.946 points per possession in their last three games.

With an early start and a tough arena, I like the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CBB 100% Totals System Play SMASHER* The Times Union Center hosts the MAAC Tournament now. This is a tremendous under venue. It has proven to be one of the best gyms in the country in the past few years.

Siena plays their home games here, so they are the team accustomed to the shooting backdrop and the gym in general. The rest of the teams play here once in a while, but the stakes are never as high as they are for the MAAC Tournament. 

In the last 8 games with a total of 148 or higher in the MAAC Tournament in a game without Siena as one of the two teams- the under is a perfect 8-0. 

These two teams are both inefficient on offense normally, and when the game matters more I do expect the teams to be tight and struggle with their shooting. These defenses aren't strong normally, but some better effort on that end should be expected.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The Missouri State Bears and Valparaiso Crusaders played twice during the regular season this year. The teams combined for 117 points in the first meeting and 121 points in the second meeting.

The Scottrade Center is the venue here, and it is has been great for unders. The last 62 games in the Scottrade Center are 42-20 to the under. This is a huge hockey arena and attendance won't be very high for this opening round game. That is a tough shooting backdrop. More often than not we see low shooting numbers in this tournament.

Both of these teams are better on defense than they are on offense. While both teams suffered through a disappointing season this year, they have enough talent to make a bit of a run in this tournament. I expect the defensive effort here to be high.

In the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament- the last 53 posted totals set at 131 points or high have gone 39-14 to the under. 

My number is quite a bit lower than this. I see a lot of value on this one.

Take the under. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers play in what is essentially a Conference USA regular season title game. MTSU has a one game lead on Western Kentucky in the standings because of their 66-62 win on the road at Western Kentucky earlier this year.

MTSU has the best defense in the conference. The Blue Raiders like to slow the pace down, especially when they are playing against the other top teams in the conference. In conference play, 12 of MTSU's 16 games have stayed under this total.

Western Kentucky's offense will go up against an MTSU defense that is allowing only 0.875 points per possession on their home floor. The Western Kentucky defense is only allowing 0.996 points per possession on the road.

This game means a ton to both teams, and important games late in the year make me lean to the under. Recent high scoring games by Western Kentucky have inflated this number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Wichita State's offense has been amazing this year. The Shockers have chewed up some really good defenses. Wichita State scored 76 points on the road in Cincinnati recently. They haven't scored less than 76 points in a game since January 20.

With many teams, you'll see tons of variance and some really low scores and very high scoring totals. The lowest combined total of points in a Wichita State game this year was 131 points. They have been consistent.

Wichita State is no longer a dominant defense. The Shockers were #1 in defensive efficiency in the country two years ago. They are #96 in the country this year. On the offensive end, they are fifth in offensive efficiency this year.

UCF's defense isn't even close to as good as they were with Tacko Fall. He's a difference maker in the middle, and their totals are still too low because of the huge drop in defensive efficiency without Fall in the middle patrolling the paint.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers and Evansville Purple Aces meet at the Scottrade Center in the MVC Tournament on Thursday. This is a huge gym and this game won't be very well attended. A tough shooting backdrop.

The two regular season games between these two teams finished at 106 points and a measly 88 points. The tempo in the second game was an unbelievably low 54 possessions. 

Juwan McCloud is doubtful for this game for Northern Iowa. McCloud is a guard who creates good looks for others. Koch is probable for Northern Iowa, but he is still less than 100 percent healthy.

Dru Brown will play here for Evansville, but he is still hampered by an injury as well.

The two regular season games were both ultra low, and this game means a lot more than those two games. I don't like taking unders this low in general, but my numbers say under here. I expect a sloppy offensive game with two excellent defenses showing their strength.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams look a lot different with interim coach Jase Herl leading the way. He wants the team to push the pace as much as possible. He has been working on the team's conditioning, and reporters have said he is constantly telling the players to play faster. Herl says he wants the team to have fun, be loose, and play quickly.

New Mexico is all about wanting to play quickly. The Lobos have scored 90 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. They have also allowed 89 points or more in 4 of their last 7 games. New Mexico cannot rebound defensively, and that's a big strength of Colorado State's offense is second chance opportunities. 

Colorado State's defense is weak at defending the 3 ball, and New Mexico launches a bunch of them.

In the first game between these two teams, Colorado State stalled due to strategy from then coach Larry Eustachy. They won't be stalling in this one. As long as the shooting numbers are decent, I expect this to go over. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LaSalle Explorers host the Dayton Flyers on Wednesday night. LaSalle has one of the most underrated players in the country in B.J. Johnson. Johnson missed some time in the middle of the year and the offense struggled then, but with him this is a quality offense.

Dayton has been miserable on defense all year. The Flyers are second to last in the conference in defensive efficiency as they give up 1.116 points per possession. LaSalle doesn't turn the ball over, and they should get good looks against this Dayton defense.

Dayton is excellent on offense. The Flyers are averaging 1.089 points per possession in conference play. They have one weakness and that is turning it over too much. Fortunately for them, LaSalle is 12th in the conference at forcing turnovers. Dayton's effective field goal percentage is 23rd best in the country.

Both teams shoot it really well from the line and that should help this one over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This one tips off the Big South Conference Tournament. Conference tournament games have gone more under the total than over in the past 10 years (52% unders), but there is another factor that makes them a stronger play.

Conference tournament games where the home team is favored by 8 or more points and the total is 130 points or higher since 2006 have gone 348-256-7 to the under (57.6%). This is a large sample size, and I think with the higher spreads it makes since to have more unders with less late game fouling likely.

The last four games between these two have all finished at 125 points or lower. 

Presbyterian moves on offense at the second slowest tempo in the country (only Virginia slower). They average only 0.913 points per possession on the road. Charleston Southern is allowing only 0.987 points per possession at home.

A slow pace and two subpar offenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas tried slowing things down in the non-conference slate earlier this year, but they have gone back to their old style of running and gunning in Mid American Conference play. 

Central Michigan is fourth in the MAC in tempo overall out of 12 teams. They are 4th in offensive efficiency as well. The Chippewas are poor on defense, and come in at 10th in defensive efficiency in the MAC. 

Ball State plays quickly as well. The Cardinals rank 3rd in the MAC in tempo. Ball State's offense has come on of late as Tayler Persons has caught fire. 

The first game between these two finished at 158, with both teams shooting close to their season averages. The tempo was quick the whole way. I had this number at 153, and I like this one to get over the total.

The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

Take the over.