Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks have a solid history of playing low scoring games against each other. The Hawks are playing slightly faster this year, but the Knicks aren't going to get into a track meet with them. This line is more indicative of a game where both teams will run, and that isn't the case here. The Knicks offense was efficient last season, but they are putting up some horrible shots now. New York has been taking contested shots and settling for long range jumpers too often. I had this one lined at 197 points, so I like the value here. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Cavaliers have been picking up the pace over the last week or so. With a backcourt of Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters, the Cavs have plenty of speed to burn. Minnesota is playing as fast as anyone in the NBA right now. The Timberwolves are taking advantage of having a healthy Ricky Rubio running the point. This team is really playing well on the offensive end. These teams met earlier this year with the final score being only 93-92, but a closer look at that game shows that the shooting percentages (especially from 3 point range) were horrendous. With normal shooting numbers that game would have sailed over the total. Plenty of value here on the over. Take the over in this one.

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Detroit Pistons have a much more athletic team than they did a year ago. Brandon Jennings and Josh Smith are guys that run the floor very well. Detroit is going to be playing much faster and scoring a lot more efficiently than they did last season. There should be opportunities on the Pistons games to go over the total early in the year. Golden State has more outside shooters than anyone else in the NBA. The Warriors should find it easy to bury a lot of three's against a Pistons defense that is terrible at guarding beyond the arc.

The over is 5-0 in Detroit's last 5 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 against the Western Conference. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 overall. The over is 10-1 in the Warriors last 11 against the NBA Central. A 30-2 angle here. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* Here we have a meeting of two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Both Indiana and Memphis have very good interior players that work hard on the defensive end. It isn't easy for guards to get inside against these teams. Indiana has the number one defense in the NBA, and the Pacers are a team that likes to control the tempo. Memphis has sped up a bit since last year, but they are far from a run and gun team. Last year's meetings between these teams finished 88-83 and 82-81. The posted total here is more than 10 points higher than it was the last time these teams met.

The under is 5-0 in the Pacers last 5 home games. The under is 4-0 in the Pacers last 4 games on a single day of rest. The under is 4-0 in the Pacers last 4 against the NBA Southwest. A 13-0 angle here. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Philadelphia 76ers surprised everyone by winning their first three games of the season. Remember, this is a very long season, and the 76ers are still a bad team. One thing that we can tell from the 76ers start to the season is they are going to run early and often this year. They are going to score quite a few and give up a bunch on a nightly basis. All five of the 76ers first five games finished above this posted total. Four of their first five games have gotten to at least 211 points. Kyrie Irving and Cleveland's struggling offense will hit stride here. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Toronto Raptors are playing at a slower tempo than any team in the NBA right now. Indiana is barely faster. Toronto's defense is improving, and the Pacers once again have the best defense in the NBA so far this season. It's hard to imagine either of these teams putting up a big number in this game. Quarters where the teams don't even combine for 40 points should be expected in this one at some point and those are killers an over bet. I think this stays low scoring. The under is 4-0 in the Pacers last 4 home games. The under is 7-1 in their last 8 overall. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Cleveland Cavaliers have ramped up their effort on the defensive end this year. Cleveland is second in the NBA in total defense so far this year. Milwaukee doesn't have the scoring firepower that most teams in the NBA do, so the Bucks have slowed down the pace this year. Expect to see quite a few unders from this team until the oddsmakers get a handle on what is going on in Milwaukee. I had this one projected at 183 points. Take the under. *Note- The line has dropped since I made this selection at the open, but I would play this one down to 185.5*

*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Los Angeles Clippers are lighting up the scoreboard right now. Doc Rivers has this team running and gunning and the offensive is flowing extremely well. The Clippers are averaging 119 points per game through their first four contests. Orlando is playing at a faster tempo with a new look roster this year. The Clippers are giving up 112.5 points per contest. The Magic are averaging 104.8 points per game so far this season. Orlando is first in the NBA in offensive rebounds, so that should give them extra chances in this one. *Note- The line has moved up since I selected this game at the open yesterday. I would play this one up to 209, but not higher.*

The over is 4-0 in the Clippers last 4 road games. It is 4-0 in their last 4 Wednesday games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The over is 8-1 in the Clippers last 9 when playing on one day of rest. A 20-1 angle backs the over. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Bulls/Pacers Total Domination* Every time the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers get together, it is hard fought game between two teams that really get after it on the defensive end. Don't expect anything different in this one. The Pacers haven't given up more than 91 points in a game this year, and the Bulls aren't about to try to push the pace. Tom Thibodeau's team works hard on the defensive end, and they can rebound well and keep the Pacers off the offensive glass. Indiana is accustomed to scoring easy buckets on the offensive boards. The under is 6-1 in the Pacers last 7 games overall. The under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons and Memphis Grizzlies are both teams I have circled as teams that will play much faster this year. Early in the season is a good chance to get good values on teams that are changing up their styles. Detroit has guys who run the floor well all over the court now, and they would be crazy to not run at every opportunity. The Grizzlies are committed to speeding up this year and looking for transition buckets. This one should be lined in the 192-193 area. Look for plenty of easy baskets in transition and lots of trips to the line. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Mavericks/Rockets Total* The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets don't care for each other very much right now. Dwight Howard picked the Rockets over the Mavericks and Mark Cuban isn't happy about it. The problem for Dallas here is they don't have any answer for Howard. Dallas' interior defense is a major weakness, and Howard should exploit that here. Houston is still running and gunning this year, and Dallas will play faster this year with Monta Ellis added to the roster. Neither of these teams is any good on the defensive end. Both teams will get up plenty of shots here. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Lakers/Warriors Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels Lakers are going to push the pace all year long. Without Dwight Howard in the lineup, the Lakers don't have someone slowing the offense down. They also don't have a big defensive presence in the paint. Los Angeles will run and gun and have some very high totals this year. Golden State plays solid defense, but the Warriors are still going to run and put up big point totals. With Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and now Andre Iguodala this team is stacked with scorers. The total here is set artificially low because it is early in the season. Look for these teams to clear this number easily. The over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Opening Night Total Domination* The Orlando Magic will be one of the NBA's worst teams this year. I'm not a fan of their experiment of moving Victor Oladipo to point guard. Oladipo is ultra-talented, but I feel like the team is taking away from his talents by putting him in a spot where he isn't as comfortable. Indiana had the league's best defense last year, and they'll be top notch again this year. The Pacers are great at controlling the tempo of the game. Indiana should win this game comfortably, and they will likely take their foot off the gas before the end of the game. It usually takes the offenses a bit to get going at the beginning of the season, and this has low scoring game written all over it. Take the under in this one.

*3 Star Knicks/Pacers Total Domination* I successfully played the 'under' in Game 6 of the Spurs/Warriors series on Thursday night. History tells us that this potential close out games are generally very low scoring. Why is this? The game is played at a slow pace because of how big the game is, and the defensive intensity is ratcheted up quite a bit as well. Since the 2004 season, the under is 32-12 in a Game 6 or Game 7 of the NBA's playoffs. The under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 games between these two teams. Expect a defensive battle. Take the under.

*3 Star Spurs/Warriors Total Domination* History tells us that close out situations are a very good opportunity to bet on the under. Since 2004, potential close out games that are either Game 6 or Game 7 in the series have gone under 31 times versus just 12 overs. The pace of the game slows down and the defensive intensity picks up. The Spurs aren't pushing the tempo nearly as much in this series as they did during the regular season. Both of these teams rank in the top 8 in the NBA in field goal percentage defense. Mark Jackson is going to be preaching defense to his young team in this game. The under is 12-3-1 in the Spurs last 16 road games. Take the under.

*3 Star Clippers/Grizzlies Game 5 Total* The Grizzlies and Clippers have gone 'over' the posted total in 3 of the first 4 games in this series. The one game that stayed under saw both teams shoot just 38% from the floor. The Grizzlies have been dominating inside and getting a lot of easy buckets of late. Los Angeles has been getting a lot of open looks from deep, but they have been unable to hit those shots. Look for them to hit a few more of those open long range jumpers at home in Game 5. The Clippers will try to push the tempo to wear down the Grizzlies. The over is 7-1 in the Clippers last 8 home games. Take the over.

*3 Star Bulls/Nets Total Domination* It's Game 5 in Brooklyn and the Nets are facing elimination. You certainly wouldn't have seen this coming if you watched Game 1 when the Nets dominated the Bulls. Chicago's come from behind win in Game 4 really took the wind out of Brooklyn's sails. Still, the Nets are a very good team and they won't go down without a fight. As the games get more important in the NBA playoffs (elimination games are a perfect example) the game slows down. The defenses should take control in this one. Take the under.

*3 Star Rockets/Thunder Total Domination* The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder got to 211 points in Game One despite awful shooting numbers from Houston. The Rockets made 8 out of 36 three's and just 36% of their shots overall in that game. You have to think they'll hit more shots than that here. The Thunder should keep scoring against Houston's very poor defense, and both of these teams love to run and gun. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Look for a score near 220 here. Take the over.

*3 Star Lakers/Spurs Total Domination* The Los Angeles Lakers are a totally different team without Kobe Bryant. They don't just lose his 27 points per game, but they also lose his leadership. If the last two regular season games are any example, the Lakers won't play nearly as fast without Bryant in the lineup. Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol will be a much bigger part of the offense which should mean the Lakers will play more in the half court. San Antonio will have all their main guys back, but they aren't all 100 percent healthy. These two teams have a solid history of picking up the defense when they match up against each other. The under is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings between these teams. Take the under.

*3 Star Bulls/Nets Total Domination* The Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets play the same style of basketball. Both teams like to slow the game down and win with their defense. The tempo should be even slower than it was in the regular season, because the defenses pick up their intensity in the playoffs. Both of these teams rank in the bottom five in the NBA in terms of pace. Chicago can't win a game by outscoring the opponent, and Tom Thibodeau knows that. They'll be short-handed in this one, but they should still play good defense. I made this total 178 points. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Houston Rockets have been the fastest paced team in the NBA for the season, but the Phoenix Suns have actually been playing faster than them over the last couple weeks. Lindsay Hunter's team doesn't have anything to play, and they aren't playing any defense right now. The Suns have been giving up points in huge bunches, and Houston can pile up the points. This game definitely means something to the Rockets who are trying to improve their playoff seed in the Western Conference. I had this one pegged at 215 points. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Phoenix Suns have a new style of play under Coach Lindsay Hunter. Phoenix is pushing the tempo at every opportunity. The Suns are scoring a lot more points than they were, but they are also terrible on the defensive end. Phoenix has given up more than 110 points six times in the past month. Minnesota is getting some great play from guard Ricky Rubio. Under Rubio's leadership, Minnesota has been much more efficient on offense of late.This is a game between two teams that have nothing to play for at this point. Don't expect any defense. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The New York Knicks offense is absolutely on fire right now. The Knicks are a jump shooting team that can score points as well as anyone in the NBA when they are on, and right now they are on in a big way. Cleveland has quit playing any kind of defense down the stretch, and the Cavs like to play the game fast. Look for lots of open looks for the Knicks here. Kyrie Irving and the Cavs should be able to put up enough for this one to go over. Take the over. *This line has moved up quickly since I picked it Thursday afternoon- I would play this game up to 206, but no higher*

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Phoenix Suns have been pushing the tempo more than any other team in the NBA over the past few weeks. Lindsay Hunter has gotten this team to run and gun, but he hasn't gotten them to play any defense just yet. Dallas' offense is great this year with Mayo, Nowitzki, Carter, etc. The Mavericks are absolutely capable of putting up 120 points on a team like the Suns. Phoenix has been absolutely horrendous on the road of late. The over is a perfect 5-0 in the Suns last 5 games playing on zero days of rest. They were beaten last night in Houston. The over is 5-1-1 in the Mavericks last 7 home games. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Memphis Grizzlies have been getting back to the basics over the past week. Memphis struggled for a couple weeks and it was their defense that let them down. Now, they are back to playing the kind of defense that has them leading the league in points per game allowed. Charlotte has given up on this season, and the Bobcats are short-handed right now. I don't expect Charlotte to get above 85 points here. Memphis should be content to just win and move on to their next game with fresh legs rather than running this one up. The under is 5-0 in the Grizzlies last 5. The under is 19-9 in the Bobcats last 28 road games. Take the under.

*3 Star Michigan/Louisville Total Domination* The Michigan Wolverines and Louisville Cardinals will play for the NCAA Basketball Championship on Monday night. It's no surprise that Louisville is here as they were the top seed overall, but Michigan is a small surprise here as a number four seed. The young Wolverines have really hit their stride in the NCAA Tournament.

Louisville likes to push the tempo, but the Cardinals also have what is arguably the best defense in college basketball. Russ Smith and Peyton Siva are defensive pests on the perimeter, and there isn't a better defensive center in the nation than Gorgui Dieng. Dieng should make it tough for Mitch McGary to score down low in this one, and he'll cut down on Trey Burke's ability to penetrate.

Louisville generally scores a lot of points off of opponents turnovers, but Michigan turns the ball over less than any team in the country. Michigan has plenty of ball handlers, and I expect them to handle the Louisville pressure relatively well.

On a neutral floor like this one and in a game of this magnitude, we often see the game slow down. Louisville likes to push the tempo, but the Cardinals offense isn't all that great in the halfcourt. If Michigan takes care of the ball, Louisville isn't likely to get nearly as many easy looks as they are accustomed to getting.

I had this one projected at 135 points. Take the under here.

*3 Star Michigan/Syracuse Final 4 Total Domination* The Michigan Wolverines and Syracuse Orange will meet in the late game Saturday night in Atlanta. Michigan pulled off the best comeback of the NCAA Tournament against Kansas, and then dominated Florida. Syracuse took down the number one seeded Indiana Hoosiers and then dismantled Marquette in a really ugly game in the Elite 8 last Saturday.

While it is conventional wisdom to say that Michigan matches up well against Syracuse because the Wolverines have so many three-point shooters, that might not actually be the case. Syracuse has so much length that opposing offenses don't get good three-point opportunities. What they get is contested low percentage three-point shots. In fact, Syracuse allowed opponents to shoot only 28% from beyond the arc this year, which is third best in the nation.

Syracuse and Michigan are both comfortable playing at a slow tempo, and things normally slow down even more for games of this kind of importance. Syracuse is excellent defensively, but their offense isn't all that impressive. The Orange have perfected the matchup zone, which makes transition chances few and far between for their opponents.

None of Syracuse's postseason games have even gotten close to this posted total. I had this one projected at 127. Take the under here.

*5 Star NBA TOP Play Total Domination* The Phoenix Suns have really started to push the tempo of late, and the oddsmakers haven't been able to catch up to them. Lindsay Hunter's team is putting up shots quickly, and they aren't playing much defense at all. How bad has the Suns defense been? Phoenix has given up at least 112 points in 5 of their last 9 games. That's a ridiculously high number, and a team like Golden State is capable of scoring 115 or 120 on Phoenix. Golden State shoots the three ball as well as anyone in the league, and Phoenix gives up lots of open looks. The over is 9-2 in Golden State's last 11 against the Western Conference. The over is 5-1 in the Suns last 6 games. I made this one 207 points. Take the over big! *Note- This total has moved up steadily since I grabbed it on the open Thursday. I would play this one all the way up to 205 points*

*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Milwaukee Bucks have been a very good running team all year, and they have been even faster paced since Jim Boylan took over the team. Boylan is using Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis to really speed up the game for his team. Minnesota has been playing faster of late as well with Ricky Rubio really coming into his own as a point guard. The Timberwolves play virtually no defense, which should mean a big number here for the Bucks. The over is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 against a team with a winning percentage under 40%. The over is 13-3 in the Bucks last 16 games following a win. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Duke/Louisville Total Domination* The Duke Blue Devils and Louisville Cardinals met in an early season tournament in Nassau. Duke won that game 76-71. The Blue Devils made 23 free throws to Louisville's 9 made free throws. The shooting percentages were pretty normal for both teams in that game, and the final total got up to 147. Louisville's defense is very good, but that doesn't always equal low scoring games. The Cardinals full court pressure speeds up the game, and Duke loves to play fast this year. Duke has four or five guys who are capable of lighting it up from deep. Louisville's Russ Smith is playing the best basketball of his career right now. We'll get plenty of pace here, and unless the shooting numbers are terrible this one should go over. I made this one 141 points. The over is 7-0 in Louisville's last 7 games. The over is 7-0 in Duke's last 7 against the Big East. The over is 9-0 in Louisville's last 9 games played at a neutral site. Take the over.

*3 Star Elite 8 Total Domination* The Wichita State Shockers are now the biggest Cinderella left in the NCAA Tournament. The Shockers are a better team than their record indicates, and they aren't afraid of anyone. On the other side, Ohio State has been as clutch as anyone in the tournament with two clutch game winners in their last two games. Both of these teams have been shooting about 50% from three-point range in their first three games in the NCAA Tournament, which has made their games much higher scoring than normal. That hot shooting has propped this total up to a higher number than it truly should be. Both of these teams are very good defensively and open shots should be tough to come by. Neither of these teams really like to run, so this could be a grind it out close game the whole way. The under is 6-0 in Ohio State's last 6 Saturday games. Take the under. *Note- This line has moved down since I played the under on Friday. I would take this one as low as 128.*

*3 Star NCAA BB Oregon/Louisville Total Domination* The Oregon Ducks and Louisville Cardinals both like to push the tempo. Oregon has drawn two favorable matchups in their first two NCAA Tournament games. The Ducks one primary weakness is taking care of the ball against teams who use pressure defense. Louisville arguably has the best pressure defense in the nation. The Cardinals will full court press and force Artis and Loyd of Oregon into bad decisions. Louisville should get a lot of easy transition buckets in this one. Oregon has plenty of depth, and the Ducks can score in the half court. A number like this one is usually set aside only for games between teams who like to slow it down and/or can't score very well offensively. I don't think that fits in a matchup between these two teams who both rank in the top 1/3 of the nation in terms of pace. The over is 6-0 in Louisville's last 6 games. The over is 8-0 in the Cardinals last 8 neutral site games. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Play of the Day* The Richmond Spiders and Wright State Raiders meet Monday night in the CBI post-season tournament. Wright State has the home court advantage, and the Raiders like to slow the game down and win with their strong defense. Richmond is also more comfortable playing at a slow pace. The smaller post-season tournaments have been trending very high scoring, which gives us some good value on the under here. With two teams who use up the shot clock, I think the oddsmakers have adjusted this number a little too high. The under is 5-1 in Richmond's last 6 Monday games. The under is 4-1 in Wright State's last 5 games overall. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* Florida Gulf Coast has been March Madness's biggest Cinderella this year. Gulf Coast dominated the majority of the game against Georgetown, and this team has now won two games against number two seeds in this year's tournament field (their other win was against Miami). San Diego State played a great second half to take down Oklahoma on Friday night. Both Gulf Coast and San Diego State prefer to play at a very quick pace. The oddsmakers have put a number on this game that would require both teams to shoot a low percentage from the floor. I made this one 136 points. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAABB Early Bird Special* The Virginia Cavaliers has always been one of the slowest paced teams in the nation under coach Tony Bennett. St. Johns likes to speed the game up a bit, but they are very poor on the offensive end. For the season, St. Johns is shooting 27 percent from 3-point range. St. Johns is much better on the defensive end. Even though they like to push the tempo, their games are often low-scoring. The extremely early start time is helpful to an under. These kids virtually never play a game at 11:00 AM Eastern time. The under is 5-0 in St. Johns last 5 against a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in their last five road games. Under is 16-5 in Virginia's last 21 non-conference games. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* This is a smaller postseason tournament play. I made this line 147 points. *Note-The line is quickly moving up here since I released this play two days ago. I would play this one up to 145 points.* Take the over!

*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns met on February 26. In that game, the Suns won 84-83 in overtime. In regulation, the score was just 77 to 77. Phoenix has been giving up a ton of points on the road, but the Suns have been good defensively at home of late. Their home/road splits are pretty amazing for how much lower they are on their home floor. Minnesota is very short-handed right now, and the Timberwolves don't have enough firepower to put up a big number very often. The under is 8-2 in Minnesota's last 10 games overall. The under is 22-4 in the Suns last 26 home games. The under is 6-0 in the Suns last 6 games when their opponent gives up more than 100 points in the previous game. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The North Carolina Tar Heels found themselves late in the year by going uptempo and going with a smaller lineup. Marcus Paige really came into his own at the point guard spot. Paige was a liability on offense early in the year, but he is shooting well and leading the fast break very well now. Villanova's young guards are very turnover prone, and North Carolina can force turnovers and score in bunches. The Wildcats don't have it in them to slow the game down, so I expect a lot of fast paced basketball in this matchup. My numbers made this total 147 points. Look for a tight game with free throws late to push it over. The over is 4-0 in UNC's last 4 neutral site games. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Wisconsin Badgers are one of my favorite 'under' teams in the nation. Bo Ryan's team knows how to get the lead with their strong defense and then take the air out of the ball by running the clock and not turning it over. Mississippi is a high scoring team, but they haven't played against teams like Wisconsin in the SEC. Mississippi was running up high point totals against the likes of Auburn, South Carolina, and Mississippi State. Wisconsin was busy locking down very good Big Ten teams. Look for Wisconsin's defense to frustrate Marshall Henderson and the Rebels. Wisconsin should get the lead and then grab control of the tempo. The under is 5-0 in Mississippi's last 5 following an ATS win. the under is 4-0 in the Rebels last 4. The under is 7-2 in the Badgers last 9 against the SEC. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The VCU Rams are a terrible matchup for the Akron Zips right now. Akron is now without star point guard Alex Abreu. Without Abreu, Akron will have to rely on a freshman point guard and their big men to try to get the ball upcourt through VCU's Havoc full court pressure. It won't be easy. At the same time, Akron will have a massive advantage on the boards here. VCU struggles badly on the defensive glass. Look for the Rams to get easy opportunities off the press and the Zips to get easy opportunities on second chance shots inside the paint. I made this total 139. Take the over.

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total* My numbers had this game at 135 points. Earlier this year these teams played to a 151 point total. The NCAA Tournament slows things down a bit, but not enough to warrant this extremely low total. UNLV played in a league with a lot of teams who slowed down the pace, but the Rebels are definitely at their best when running the fast break. Cal 's Allen Crabbe is the best pure scorer in this game, and I don't see anyone on the UNLV roster that can slow him down. Transition opportunities for both teams should present themselves early and often in this game. The over is 5-1 Cal's last 6 against the MWC. The over is 6-2 in UNLV's last 8 against the PAC 12. Take the over in a big way here!

*3 Star NCAA BB Bookie BEATDOWN* The South Dakota State Jackrabbits are in the NCAA Tournament for a second straight year. They gave Baylor a scare in the first game last year, and they should be competitive here. South Dakota State shoots 40% from beyond the arc, and Michigan often leaves guys open outside. The Wolverines are an extremely efficient offensive team, and South Dakota State's defense has struggled all year. The Jackrabbits gave up more than 80 points in a game numerous times this year. They allowed more than 85 points in five games. Michigan will put up the points with their well balanced attack. Look for good shooting from both teams. The over is 10-2-1 in Michigan's last 13 neutral site games. The over is 12-3 in South Dakota State's last 15 non-conference games. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Pittsburgh Panthers are usually known as a defensive minded team, and they are even more that way this season. Jamie Dixon's team plays great defense and slows the game down on the offensive end. Wichita State's defense is very good, and the Shockers should be able to hang with Pitt in this one. This has the feel of a game that stays close all the way, and the winner of this game probably won't get out of the 50's. I made this total 116. *Note- This line has dropped quickly since I released the play on Sunday night- I would play the total down to 118.5 but no lower*

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The UC Irvine Anteaters have a lot of veterans on their team this year, and they almost made the NCAA Tournament. In the end, they fell in the title game to Pacific. I think Irvine will be fighting hard to keep winning in this small postseason tournament. The Anteaters offense is much better at home, and High Point's defense isn't particularly impressive. Both of these teams are comfortable playing a quick pace. I made this line 136. Take the over. *Note- The line has moved up here since I released this play on Monday afternoon. I would play this one up to 134.*

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The smaller postseason tournaments often have a lot of games that go over the posted total. Teams decide to pick up the tempo since there isn't as much left to play for. UT Arlington has been playing pretty fast of late anyways, so I was surprised to see a number this low thrown out on this game. I made this one 135 points. Take the over. *Note- This line has quickly moved up since I released the play on Monday afternoon. I would suggest playing this one up to 133, but not any higher.*

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs use full court pressure to force the tempo, and Florida State should be glad to run in this one as well. These NIT games often go higher scoring than a regular scoring game, and I think this one could go well over this total. *Note- This line has moved quickly since I selected it at the open. I would play this total up to 143.* Take the over.

*3 Star NIT Total Domination* The Eastern Kentucky Colonels and Gardner Webb Runnin' Bulldogs are both very comfortable playing at a slow tempo. These NIT games are typically higher scoring than a regular season game, so we get a nice value on the under. Since both teams have played so slow during the year, I don't see these teams drastically speeding up here. Gardner Webb is a particularly low scoring team, and they will be the home team here. The under is 6-0-1 in Gardner's last 7 non-conference games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Golden State Warriors had been struggling in a big way of late, but last night's 108-78 win in Houston was just what the doctor ordered for this team. Golden State shoots the three-ball better than anyone in the NBA, and the Hornets don't guard the perimeter well. New Orleans' offense has been much better in the last few weeks, and they have been a very solid over team of late. The first two meetings between these two this year have finished at 199 and 228 points. The over is 7-1 in the Hornets last 8 home games. The over is 9-1 in the Warriors last 10 against a team with a winning percentage below 40%. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in New Orleans. Take the over.

*3 Star Early Bird Special* The Miami Heat's huge winning streak is well documented, but most people don't realize that it is their improved defense that is leading their team to victory. Miami is capable of playing the best defense in the NBA when they are extremely motivated. There is no doubt that this team wants to keep the winning streak alive so I expect to see a strong defensive performance in this one. Toronto is better on the defensive end since they picked up Rudy Gay. The Raptors shouldn't want to get into an up and down game with the Heat. The under is 4-0 in the Heat's last 4 road games. The under is 6-0 in Toronto's last 6 against the Southeast Division. The under is 4-0 in Toronto's last 4 home games. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Phoenix Suns have started playing a little bit more defense for new coach Lindsay Hunter. The Suns aren't playing particularly fast, and their offense is one of the least efficient in the NBA. Washington continues to baffle the oddsmakers by playing so many games that finish under the total this year. The under is 38-23-3 in the Wizards games this year. Washington actually ranks third in the NBA in field goal percentage defense. Their new high intensity defense should keep this one low scoring as well. Look for a lot of missed shots from both teams. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two. The under is 6-1 in the Suns last 7 against a team with a losing record. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The VCU Rams use their "havoc" defense to force the pace and force more turnovers than any other team in the nation. UMass plays even faster than VCU, and the Minutemen aren't about to slow this game down. Their first meeting this year played to a total of 154 points, and the shooting numbers weren't particularly good. With two full court pressure teams, this will be an all out track meet. Barring some really bad shooting percentages, this should go over. The over is 4-0 in UMass' last 4 neutral site games. The over is 7-1 in VCU's last 8 games. The over is 8-2 in UMass' last 10 games. Take the over. *This is a play for me up to 153 points*

*3 Star TGIF NBA Total Domination* The Chicago Bulls were absolutely throttled 121-79 in Sacramento two nights ago. The Bulls might not be a great team without Derrick Rose, Taj Gibson, and Richard Hamilton; but I do believe this team will come motivated after a clunker like that game against the Kings was. Tom Thibodeau's team is one of the best defensive teams in the league, and they will be slowing this game down in a big way to try to keep it close. The Bulls don't have the offensive weapons that the Warriors have, and they know that. Golden State hasn't been shooting it quite as well of late, and I think they'll struggle to find open looks against a Bulls team that guards well on a normal night. Interestingly, the under is 7-1 in the Bulls last 8 following a loss by 10 points or more. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.

*3 Star Arizona/UCLA Totals Takedown* The Arizona Wildcats and UCLA Bruins are both very comfortable playing a fast paced game. Their last meeting finished at 143 points, and the shooting numbers weren't particularly great. There were only 26 free throws between the two teams all game, and I would expect more trips to the charity stripe in this game. UCLA has Shabazz Muhammad and Jordan Adams while Arizona has Mark Lyons and Solomon Hill. All of these guys are capable of putting up a ton of points in a short period of time. The posted total was 148 in their last meeting, and I think this has been adjusted down too far. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The Iowa State Cyclones are sure to be fired up for this opportunity. Iowa State lost to Kansas in overtime twice during the regular season, and the Cyclones could have easily won both of those games. Iowa State pushes the tempo more than any other team in the Big 12, and they can light it up from long range. Kansas isn't going to slow the game down, and they have the ability to score inside against Iowa State. Both regular season games were well over this posted total before they ever got to overtime. The over is 23-5 in Iowa State's last 28 games overall, so the oddsmakers haven't caught up to this team all year. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two. Take the over. *Note- This total has moved up- I would play this as high as over 146*

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Miami Heat are clearly the best team in the NBA right now. They have won 18 straight games and they'll try to make it 19 in this one. When this team is next to unbeatable is when they are playing terrific half court defense. In six straight games, their opponent has scored 96 points or less. Atlanta has been slowing down the pace and playing better defense since the trade deadline. The last five meetings between these teams have all stayed under this posted total. The under is 4-1 in Atlanta's last 5 road games. The under is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings between these two in Miami. I projected this one at 192 points. Take the under here.

*3 Star NBA Bulls/Lakers Total Domination* The Los Angeles Lakers have been playing quite a bit better of late, but they still have plenty of room for improvement. Chicago is extremely short-handed right now, and the Bulls will absolutely have to slow the game down here to have a chance to hang around. Without any real scoring threats in the backcourt, Chicago is awfully limited on the offensive end. Dwight Howard's defense has been much better of late, and he should slow down Noah and Boozer. On the other side, Chicago's gritty defense generally makes open shots difficult to come by for their opponent. The Lakers only put up 83 points against Chicago in January. This is a 12:30 pm local time start and that could easily mean some tired legs and poor shooting numbers. The under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings between these two teams. The under is 4-0 in the Lakers last 4 against a team with a winning record. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Cal State Fullerton Titans have been one of the highest scoring teams in the nation this year, but two of their top three scorers are doubtful for this game. Without Seeley and Yeager in the lineup, this is a totally different offense. Fullerton has been held in the 50's twice in their last three games. Cal Poly has the best defense in the Big West and they slow the game down in a big way. Even with everyone healthy earlier this year these two played to a 137 final. The under is 5-0 in Fullerton's last 5. The under is 6-0 in Cal Poly's last 6 Saturday games. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total* The Western Illinois Leathernecks are the single slowest team in the nation in terms of possessions per game. South Dakota is fairly quick, but I don't think they'll be able to speed up this game. It's win or go home for both of these teams and that generally means better defense and a slower pace to the game. I had this one projected at 120 points. The under is 39-19-2 in Western Illinois' last 60 games. Look for a slow paced game that stays well under the total. Take the under here.

*5 Star NCAA BB Top Play Total* The William & Mary Tribe and James Madison Dukes meet at Richmond Coliseum to fight for a spot in the CAA semifinals. The CAA Tournament is wide open this year, so both of these teams have a real shot at getting to the finals. This gym is noted for being tough on shooters with its tough rims and spacious interior. The under is 4-0 in James Madison's last 4 neutral site games. The under is 5-0 in William & Mary's last 5 neutral site games. Look for the defenses to win out in a tough battle here. Take the under big! *Note- I would play this one all the way down to 132*

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play CRUSHER* The Hofstra Pride are so awful on the offensive end. A total this high in a Hofstra game is almost unheard of. In fact, in Hofstra's last 19 games only two of them have gone above this total and both of them finished at 131 (a single point above this). Delaware does like to run, but the Blue Hens also play very good defense. The first two meetings between these teams this year finished at 123 and 113 points. On a neutral floor I don't expect this one to be any higher. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. Take the under big!

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Drexel Dragons are one of the best in the CAA at slowing the game down and winning with ball control. George Mason will try to push the pace some, but in a game that means so much to both teams look for the offenses to be tight. This is being played at a neutral court with tough shooting backdrops. I projected this one at 124. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The Sun Belt Conference Tournament is played at a neutral site in Hot Springs. This venue has been noted for its tight rims and tough shooting backdrops for many years. Here we have two teams who are better on defense than they are on offense. They are both also much more comfortable playing at a slow tempo than they are pushing the pace. One regular season meeting went under while another went over, but the one that went over saw amazing 3 point shooting numbers from Fla. Atlantic. I had this one projected at 120. The under is 5-1 in Troy's last 6. Take the under.

*3 Star TGIF NBA Total Domination* The Atlanta Hawks went through a brief period around the trade deadline where they were playing some miserable basketball. During that period they played virtually no defense. The oddsmakers have moved their totals up a lot because of that, but Atlanta is once again playing better over the past week or so, and they have been on a nice under run. Boston is playing much better halfcourt defense of late. Paul Pierce is dinged up right now and him being less than 100 percent definitely hurts the Celtics offense. I had this one projected at 185 points. The under is 4-0 in the Hawks last 4 road games. The under is 5-1 in the Celtics last 6 following a win. Take the under. *Note- I played this game at the open and it has since dropped, but I would play this down to 187 points.*

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals Takedown* The Southern Illinois Salukis and Missouri State Bears are both poor offensive teams. At a neutral site in St. Louis, I expect the shooting percentages to be especially low in this one. Arch Madness in the MVC has seen 15 of the past 18 games go under the total in the past two years. I had this one projected at 114 points. I would play this one down to 117. Look for an ugly low scoring game here. Take the under.

*3 Star Wisconsin/Michigan State Total* The Wisconsin Badgers have been one of my favorite 'under' teams for the past few years. Bo Ryan's teams are terrific at slowing the game down and taking care of the ball. Michigan State has lost three straight going into this one and Tom Izzo's team should be focused on the defensive end today. The stakes are high here since both teams still have a chance at the Big Ten title. Look for both defenses to bring their "A Game" and keep this one low scoring. The under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings at Michigan State. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* Going under the radar for this play. The Liberty Flames and High Point Panthers met twice in the regular season. The first meeting finished at 149 points in OT (it was 116 before OT). The second finished at 141 points. This game will be played on a neutral site, which generally leads to lower scoring. In addition, this is an elimination game where the pace tends to slow down. I projected this one at 137 points. Both of these teams are solid on the defensive end. Look for the defenses to control this game. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* I had this one projected at 139 points. This is one of those neutral site games that tend to be much lower scoring than regular season meetings where the teams are accustomed to the gyms. Take the under here.

*3 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle Total* The Drake Bulldogs and Bradley Braves play in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tonight. "Arch Madness" is the name of this terrific conference tourney. History tells us that the under is the way to go in this tournament. In the past two years, the under is 15-3 in the Arch Madness tournament in St. Louis. The rims are tough here and it is a tough neutral site. Drake and Bradley played two games under the total in regulation this year, and I think this has value written all over it. The under is 7-0 in Drake's last 7 Thursday games. The under is 6-0 in Bradley's last 6 neutral site games. I'd play this one down to 138. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB OVC Total* The Morehead State Eagles and Tennessee State Tigers just played to a 101-100 final score last week. I certainly don't expect that again, but I also don't think the game will be 60 points lower this time around. I had this one projected at 148 points. Look for a close game here, which should mean a lot of free throws for both teams. The over is 7-0 in Tennessee State's last 7. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Take the over in this one.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The Eastern Illinois Panthers and Southeast Missouri State Redhawks kick off the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament tonight in Nashville. This conference tournament is played at Municipal Auditorium, where the shooting backdrops are noted to be very difficult. Neutral site games like this usually are lined two or three points lower than a regular season game. Eastern Illinois is terrific at forcing the opponent to play to their slow style. The under is 5-1 in Eastern Illinois' last 6 neutral site games. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle Total* The Mercer Bears have been an absolute under machine at home. They are playing this tournament game on their home floor. Lipscomb likes to push the tempo, but Mercer has been able to slow everyone down this year with their stall ball. Tournament basketball tends to slow down a bit to start with, and this number was 6.5 points higher than I projected it. The under is 11-0-1 in Mercer's last 12 home games. The under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 home games against a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Lipscomb's last 4 road games. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* Clemson likes to slow the game down and rely on ball control and their defense to win games. Boston College isn't the type of team to speed the game up, and their offense isn't good at all. Clemson will be without K.J. McDaniels here, and he averages 11 points per game. That makes it even more likely that the Tigers will struggle to put up points in this one. The pace here should be very slow, so it will take some high shooting percentages to push this over. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two at Clemson. Take the under.

*5 Star NBA TOP Total Play* The Orlando Magic aren't any good now, but they are still running and gunning. This team is going to give up points about as much as anyone in the NBA over the course of the rest of the season. Orlando has allowed 108 points or more in four of their last five games. Eric Gordon is back in the lineup and that means the Hornets should push the tempo more and be more dynamic offensively. New Orleans has been shooting the ball much better of late. The over is 4-0 in Orlando's last 4 on zero days of rest. The over is 12-2 in their last 14 against the Western Conference. The over is 5-0 in the Hornets last 5 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 against the Eastern Conference. The over is 6-1 in their last 7 games. Take the over! *Note: I played this game when the line was first released on Sunday afternoon. I made this total 198 points, so I would play it all the way up to 195 points for a 5 Star Play and up to 196 as a 3 star Play*

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The Virginia Cavaliers still play at one of the slowest paces in all of basketball. Tony Bennett's team is very good defensively, but they also shoot three-ball very well. Boston College isn't very good this year, but they have given a lot of top teams (Duke, Miami, etc) a very tough time at home. The Eagles defense should hold their own at home and keep this competitive. Boston College isn't comfortable pushing the tempo, so this one should stay slow. The under is 14-6 in Boston College's last 20 home games. Take the under.

*3 Star Arizona/UCLA Total* The first meeting between these two was an up and down affair, and I don't see anything that would make this game any different. These teams are more comfortable out in the open floor. Both of these offenses are quite a bit better than the defenses. Shabazz Muhammad and the UCLA Bruins offense have gotten much better over the past month or so. UCLA put up 84 on Arizona on the road, and they should get near that number again. Arizona should be able to win the battle on the boards and get second chance points. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* The Florida Atlantic Owls have been a much better team at home all year. Greg Gantt is one of the best three-point shooters in the country, and he'll be going against an FIU team that plays a zone defense. Look for Florida Atlantic to knock down a lot of long range jumpers here. FIU presses and that will bother Florida Atlantic. I expect plenty of easy opportunities in transition for the Golden Panthers. The over is 10-3 in the Owls last 13 home games. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings at Florida Atlantic. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* Here is a matchup between two teams that are more comfortable slowing the game down. South Carolina tried to run earlier this year, but they changed their style midseason after they realized their offense wasn't capable of keeping up with most in the SEC. Texas A&M is one of the slowest paced teams in the league, and they'll definitely want a half court game on their home floor. Look for the slow tempo and poor shooting numbers to turn this into an ugly game. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total* The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are one of my favorite 'over' teams. Oakland loves to push the tempo of the game, and their defense is horrendous. The team struggled a bit offensively earlier this year, but they have been firing on all cylinders again recently. Fort Wayne is a team that plays to the style of the opponent, so we should see a high scoring game. The over is 6-0 in Oakland's last 6 Saturday games. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The Colorado Buffaloes are heating up just as they did last year when they won the PAC 12 Conference Tournament. Colorado is doing it with tremendous defense this year. Cal has usually been an offensive-minded team, but the Golden Bears are also one of the top defensive teams in the PAC 12 this year. Both teams have been playing a lot of very low scoring games of late. Look for this one to be a defensive battle. The under is 7-0 in Colorado's last 7 road games. The under is 4-0 in Cal's last 4 Saturday games. The under is 5-0 in Colorado's last 5 following a win. The under is 7-1 in Cal's last 8 home games. The under is 21-5 in Colorado's last 26 against the PAC 12. Take the under.

*3 Star TGIF Total Domination* This one is a dangerous combination of a horrible defense (Orlando) against a terrific offense (Houston) that loves to push the pace. Orlando routinely gives up 110 or 120 points, and the Rockets could certainly get 120 here. Orlando is trying to run and push the tempo as well, and I don't think that will work well for them, but they'll get plenty of shot opportunities. The over is 10-2 in the Magic's last 12 games against the Western Conference. The over is 6-1 in Orlando's last 7 when their opponent scores 100 or more in the previous game. The over is 4-1 in the Rockets last 5 on a single day of rest. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Hawaii Warriors are a fast paced team that is efficient on the offensive end. UCSB will try to slow the game down a bit, but if they want to hang around they'll have to score a decent amount of points in this one. I think this gets to 140. Take the over.

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total* The Cal Poly Mustangs do like to play the game at a slow pace. In fact, I won with the 'under' on my college basketball Play of the Year in Cal Poly's last game. The Mustangs will have to score a few more tonight though, because Cal State Northridge isn't going to let this turn into a half court game. The first meeting between these two finished at 137, and I expect a similar final here. I would play this all the way up to 136. The over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings at Northridge. Look for Northridge to control the tempo. Take the over big.

*3 Star NCAA BB Bookie CRUSHER Total* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds are the fastest team in the Big Sky Conference in terms of pace. Montana State likes to run as well, and the Bobcats play some terrible defense. The first meeting between these two finished at 144 with some below average shooting numbers for both teams. Look for those to tick up a little here. I had this one set at 149 points. The over is 6-0 in Southern Utah's last 6 Thursday games. The over is 5-1 in Southern Utah's last 6 against the Big Sky. The over is 4-1 in Montana State's last 5. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The Lousiana Monroe Warhawks have completely changed their style of play in the middle of the season this year. This is quite rare, but when it does happen it is a great chance to make some money. Monroe used to stall, but now they are looking to run at every chance. FIU presses and forces the tempo under new coach Richard Pitino. FIU will want a track meet and Monroe should oblige in this one. The over is 5-0 in Monroe's last 5 against a team with a losing road record. The over is 4-0 in FIU's last 4 against a team with a losing home record. The over is 17-5 in Monroe's last 22 following a loss. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total* The Texas State Bobcats and Seattle Redhawks both love to run and gun. The first meeting between these two finished at 169 points. I expected a total set at around 153. I like the line value here. Take the over.