Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have an excellent defense that has given the Northeast Conference problems all season long. Merrimack is allowing 0.88 points per possession in the conference. That is just fantastic from a defensive efficiency standpoint.

These two teams have played each other twice in the regular season. Those games finished at 114 and 122 points. 

This is a win or go home game where the tempo tends to slow down and the defenses give a ton of effort. 

Merrimack's offense is bottom three in the country in efficiency. Both teams defend well without fouling. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UC Davis Aggies and Long Beach State 49ers meet in the regular season finale for both teams on Saturday afternoon. 

The first game between these two played to an extremely fast tempo of 77 possessions. The shooting numbers in that game were ugly. It still got to 147 total points. With normalized shooting numbers, I expect this one to be a higher scoring game.

Long Beach State and UC Davis both have big edges on the offensive glass. There should be a bunch of second chance opportunities here. Both teams live at the line and free throws should help boost this point total a lot.

I think the pace stays quick and the shooting improves some here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game between Rice and FIU easily cleared this number. FIU and Rice both want to pressure and run when they can. 

FIU was without star scorer Denver Jones for a few games and that slowed down their offensive a lot, but he is back now and scoring a bunch once again. 

Rice gets a lot of open outside looks against this FIU aggressive defense, and the Owls are solid shooters especially on their home floor.

The pace should be there or a high scoring game in this one. 

The over has been cashing in at a very high rate here at the end of the season and many of those overs have been from late season games between mediocre teams with little to play for. That has been a good long term angle as well. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The first two times these teams met the final totals were 131 and 134 points. Shot Quality is an advanced metrics site that measures the quality of each shot and their system tells what the score should have been based on the quality of shot taken. In the two games the final totals should have been 135 and 128 points according to Shot Quality. Both are comfortably under the current total.

The posted total here is set higher than it was in the regular season games between these two. Why should it be? They stayed under the total in two slow paced games in the regular season. This is a win or go home game played on a neutral floor that is 24-14 to the under.

This number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTEP Miners and MTSU Blue Raiders both play unique defenses. These two teams like to switch things up and trap and get steals when they can. 

The first meeting between these two saw a final score of 84-72. While I'm not confident it will be that high again, I think this total is too low. 

This game doesn't mean anything to these two teams who are in a must win spot in the conference tournament. This is the regular season finale and I think the teams will feel free to play a bit quicker.

The over has been cashing in at a very high rate here at the end of the season and many of those overs have been from late season games between mediocre teams with little to play for. That has been a good long term angle as well. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The La Salle Explorers played decent defense earlier in the season, but they have been terrible of late. La Salle has allowed 1.29, 1.25, and 1.32 points per possession in their last three games. That is some awful defense. Loyola Chicago does get good looks at the basket, and I think they can put up a solid amount of points in this one.

The Loyola defense has been very disappointing for their fans all year. The Ramblers don't have shot blockers and they have given up too many open jumpers in general. 

The over has been cashing in at a very high rate here at the end of the season and many of those overs have been from late season games between mediocre teams with little to play for. That has been a good long term angle as well. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams have been amazing on offense in their home building. They are averaging 1.195 points per possession in the Mountain West at home. They are also giving up 1.114 points per possession at home. They have had some shootouts on their home floor. 

New Mexico is a different team with Jaelen House in the lineup. They struggled to score and some teams were able to slow them down without House, but they have consistently played to a pace of at least 68 possessions or more with House in the lineup. 

The first game was 88-69 New Mexico at New Mexico. Colorado State should be able to score down low here. The Rams are 5th in near proximity offense at Haslametrics and New Mexico is 125th at NP defense as they lack shot blockers down low.

New Mexico speed should get them some easy points in transition here too, and House and Mashburn are matchup problems.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Pioneers and North Dakota Fighting Hawks meet in the first round of the Summit League Conference Tournament. This game is played at Sanford Premier Center in South Dakota on a neutral floor. The under is 14-8 in the last 22 postseason games played here. 

Denver and North Dakota are both really bad teams. This isn't necessarily an easy under to take, but I think it is a solid play. The two regular season games both finished 149. This is a bigger game where it is win or go home. 

Denver relies on getting inside and North Dakota's relative strength on defense is their interior defense with their solid height. Neither team plays all that fast either, and this is a high total for a game with an average tempo.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Citadel and Mercer just played in their last game in the regular season and that one finished 72-50 and was played to a very slow pace of 51 possessions. 

Both of these teams struggle to get second chance points. Neither of them get to the free throw line much either. 

Mercer has turned into a pretty good defensive team as the year has gone along. The Bears were third in the SoCon in defensive efficiency. They have mixed in some zone defenses to slow down the opposition.

The Citadel is terrible offensively. The Bulldogs like to put up a lot of 3's, but that is the strength of the Mercer defense (perimeter defense). 

This game is played at Cherokee Center in North Carolina. The under is 23-13 in games played here. 

Take the under. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have played 11 of their last 14 games under this total in regulation. Missouri State is the slowest paced team in the Missouri Valley Conference. They also have multiple very good shot blockers to keep the opposition out of the paint.

UIC has had some higher scoring games of late, but both games between these two in the regular season stayed well under this total.

This is a win or go home game.

This game is played on a neutral floor at Enterprise Arena in St. Louis. This is a hockey arena which is noted for its tough shooting backdrops because of the size of the building. Unders have historically done very well in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. 

Take the under.

*This line has shifted some since I selected it- I would play this for 5 stars down to 131 and for 4 stars at anything lower than that* 

*4 Star Play Under* The first time these two teams met it went into overtime both times. 

The first game finished at 147 points after OT (122 points total before).

The second game finished at 153 points after OT (130 points total before). 

While it is always possible this game goes into overtime, we couldn't predict that it would. These two have played games well under this even in a regular season setup. 

This is a win or go home game where defense is typically more engaged.

This game is played on a neutral floor at Enterprise Arena in St. Louis. This is a hockey arena which is noted for its tough shooting backdrops because of the size of the building. Unders have historically done very well in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. 

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* This is the early game in St. Louis on Thursday at the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. 

Illinois State plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the nation. Northern Iowa plays at an average tempo. Overall, this should be a game played at a slow pace. 

The two regular season meetings finished at 126 and 128 points. 

Both teams are good on the defensive glass which is a plus for the under.

This game is played on a neutral floor at Enterprise Arena in St. Louis. This is a hockey arena which is noted for its tough shooting backdrops because of the size of the building. Unders have historically done very well in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. 

Take the under.

*This line has shifted some- I would bet this for 4 stars down to 136 and 3 stars at anything lower than that.* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wagner Seahawks have played 11 of their last 12 games under this posted total. In fact, all 11 of those games finished at 126 points or fewer. Wagner is a great under team for a few reasons. First, they rank as the fifth slowest paced team in the country. Wagner also ranks 345th in offensive efficiency in the nation. This team takes a lot of low percentage shots. Wagner is also a pretty good defensive team though. The Seahawks are second in the NEC in defensive efficiency. Their one main problem on defense is how much they foul, but Sacred Heart is 295th in FTA/FGA in the country.

Sacred Heart has improved on defense this year. In conference play, they are fourth in defensive efficiency. Sacred Heart has played to a slower teams preferred tempo several times (Wagner, Merrimack, C Connecticut St). 

Both games between these two in the regular season went under this total (126 and 121 points).

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first time these two teams played the final was 78-70. That game cleared this total fairly comfortably. I think this game will go over the total as well.

Colorado State is dead last in the Mountain West in defensive efficiency. The Rams are giving up far too many open shots. On the other side, Colorado State's offense is very good. Isaiah Stevens is a good leader for the team at guard and he has a great 115.9 offensive rating. He takes great care of the basketball and is an elite passer as well. 

San Jose State puts up a lot of shots from long range, and Colorado State is very susceptible against good long range shooting teams. San Jose State has 29 and 21 offensive rebounds in their last two home games as well.

There are multiple very good angles for mediocre or worse teams playing their last couple regular season games and those games trending toward the over pretty strongly.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is the final game of the regular season for both of these two teams. The Big Sky Conference is well known for poor defense and good offenses. It's a weak league overall, but there are quite a few guys in this conference who can shoot the basketball.

The first game between these two teams finished at 136 points (76-60). This game means very little to these two teams. 

Northern Arizona takes a lot of shots from long range, and that is their big advantage. The Lumberjacks are hitting 38.2% from 3 point range. Weber State ranks 333rd out of 363 teams in the nation in 3 point defense. 

Weber State has a big advantage in the paint. Northern Arizona lacks shot blockers and Weber State should be able to do work down low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I like the addition of Mitchell Robinson back into the lineup for the Knicks. Robinson ranks second in defensive efficiency rating on the Knicks team of the players who average 25 minutes of more per game. Robinson is both a very good shot blocker and a good defensive rebounder.

The Knicks already play at a pace as slow as any team in the NBA. New York has had trouble with this Boston defense in their recent meetings.

Boston ranks bottom ten in the league in pace in their last ten games as well. The Celtics are expected to be without Jaylen Brown in this game. Brown is one of the keys to the offense.

This divisional contest is a big game for both teams and I like the defenses to show up strong here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Illinois Salukis have been a bit higher scoring in recent weeks than they were earlier in the season. Marcus Domask is an offensive star, and Domask is capable of taking over in any game. Domask had 24 points in the first meeting between these two teams. That game finished 68-66. 

The UIC Flames have had much higher scoring games than predicted especially late in the season. In fact, 13 of UIC's last 15 games have gone over this total. UIC ranks 3rd in the league in tempo. The Flames have allowed 74 points or more in each of their last four games. 

This is the final game of the regular season for both teams.  Neither team has much to play for in this one. These late season games have gone over the total at a high rate in the past. That has continued so far this season as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have an interim coach after Kermit Davis Jr. was fired this week. With Ole Miss out of the running for anything this year, I think there is a good chance they play quicker and a bit more freely. 

Ole Miss has actually seen 7 of its last 9 games finish with 141 points or more. They have really been getting out in transition with steals and getting quick scores. They should be able to do that here too against an LSU team that is poor in transition defense.

LSU has seen 6 of its last 8 games finish over this total. The Tigers have finally started shooting the ball better very recently.

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* USF committed to playing faster this year and they have stuck to it. The Bulls are playing fast and crashing the offensive glass. That should help them a lot against an SMU team that is awful on the defensive glass. 

SMU is good at getting steals and scores in transition. USF doesn't have very good ball handlers, and they are vulnerable to pressure. 

The pace here should be frenetic. The first game finished at 162 points.

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Portland Pilots and Pacific Tigers meet in the regular season finale tonight. 

Portland is coming off a game that was 56-53 at halftime against San Francisco last time. The Pilots have allowed 92 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. Portland is dead last in the West Coast Conference in defensive efficiency.

Pacific is 5th in the nation in open 3 rate, and this Portland defense is allowing opponents to shoot 40.5% from 3 point range in conference play. Pacific will get a bunch of open looks here. 

The pace in this one should stay fast throughout. This is the final game of the regular season for both teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* SIU Edwardsville actually played pretty decent defense for a good while this season, but that has all gone out the window in recent weeks. Edwardsville has allowed 88.25 points per game in their last four games. They are really pushing the pace, and the defense has been terrible.

SE Missouri State is the fastest paced team in the OVC. The Redhawks foul a ton and Edwardsville should live on the line in this one. SE Missouri State should get a lot of quick transition opportunities off their pressure defense.

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game. This is their final regular season game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Houston Christian Huskies have the single worst defense in all of college basketball. They give up a bunch of open shots and they also give up loads of second chance points. It's hard to believe they can keep being so bad on defense every year, but they have done it. 

Houston Christian is good at getting to the line and they are capable of scoring in bunches. Nicholls State is great at getting steals and getting out in transition and scoring. Houston Christian is terrible in transition defense. 

The first game between these two was 92-91. 

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers are 362nd in the nation in tempo. The second slowest team in the nation. Charlotte is going to play their style of basketball, regardless of what the opposition wants to do. Rice prefers to play fast, but they have been slowed down by several teams this year. The first game between these two teams played to a very slow pace of just 62 possessions. That game stayed well under the total.

Charlotte and Rice both do a good job not allowing opponents to get to the line much, and both are good on the defensive glass. 

I think this number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal State Fullerton Titans offense has really gotten it going in their last few games. Fullerton is riding high coming into this game. The single biggest strength of the Fullerton offense is their ability to get to the line at a very high rate. Now, they come into a matchup with a Bakersfield team that fouls more than any other team in the Big West Conference. Fullerton should be able to live at the line here.

Bakersfield has been more competitive at home. This spread suggests a game that could be in the fouling range late. Both of these teams have been very good from the free throw line (72.7% And 79%) in Big West play.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves and LA Monroe Warhawks meet in the regular season finale for both teams on Friday night. These two teams have a history of playing higher scoring than expected games against each other. Five of the last six meetings have gone over the posted total between these two teams. Only one of the last six meetings has even stayed under 146 points. 

These two teams are both very weak on defense. They are bad teams in general, and there is no reason to expect a big effort from them in this game. The regular season doesn't matter to these teams anymore.

Both teams are above average in the league in 3 point shooting, and both defenses are terrible at defending beyond the arc. 

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Hampton Pirates and Monmouth Hawks have been awful this season. Hampton pushes the pace, and the first game between these two was played to their preferred tempo. 

Monmouth's offense has been slightly better in recent weeks, and they are up against a terrible defense here.

These two are at the bottom of the CAA standings. This game means very little to either team, and I think that will help the offenses get more open looks here. 

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first meeting between these two finished 87-82. St. Francis (PA) shoots the 3 ball extremely well, and Fairleigh Dickinson is 361st out of 363 teams in the country in 3 point defense. 

Fairleigh Dickinson's offense has been really efficient this year, and they are good at pushing the pace. They should be able to generate plenty of quick steals and scores here against a St. Francis team that hasn't been good in transition defense.

Both offenses should get to the line a lot with both defenses struggling to defend without fouling.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns are a unique team in the Sun Belt. This is a league with a lot of teams who aren't very efficient on offense. Louisiana is first in the Sun Belt in offensive efficiency. The Ragin' Cajuns are also pretty quick paced. Louisiana is 4th in the league in average possession length.

Arkansas State is 13th out of 14 teams in the league in defensive efficiency. The Red Wolves allowed 80 points to Louisiana at home earlier this year. I don't think they'll be able to slow them down here in Louisiana either. 

Louisiana's defense is 10th in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency. 

Both teams are good at getting to the free throw line, and both of these teams foul a bunch. There should be a lot of points scored with the clock stopped here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia State Panthers really tried to slow the game down a lot earlier in the season. Toward the end of the season, this Georgia State team has played quite a bit quicker. They are no longer locking teams down on the defensive end either.

Appalachian State has been much worse defensively in their last few games. In fact, Appalachian State has allowed 74 points or more in each of their last three games. The Mountaineers held Georgia State to 59 in their first meeting, but Georgia State only got to the line 7 times in that game. They should get to the line more here.

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* East Tennessee State won the first meeting between these two teams 96-74. Both teams shot the ball really well from 3 point range in that one, so I don't expect that high of a total here. Still, this number has dipped and the tempo should be relatively quick.

I don't see any reason to expect either team to be very concerned about playing tough defense here. Neither defense is very good to begin with, and both of these teams have had a really disappointing season and they are playing out the string in the regular season. 

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Youngstown State Penguins have a very good offense, but I think they are due for at least some regression. Youngstown State has played the 338th toughest slate of defenses this year, so their numbers are at least somewhat skewed. 

Youngstown State relies on getting to the basket a lot. They are up against a Robert Morris team that is first in the Horizon League in 2 point FG percentage defense. Robert Morris is second in the league in blocked shots percentage. 

Robert Morris slows the tempo down. They rank 9th in the Horizon League in average tempo. They are 2nd in defensive efficiency and just 8th in offensive efficiency.

Neither team gets to the line much and neither team fouls much at all. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Titans have Antoine Davis trying to beat Pistol Pete Maravich's scoring record. It will take a lot of points in each of his last few games. Davis is going to take a bunch of shots in this one. Davis likes to shoot it from long range, and IUPUI is the ideal matchup for a 3 point shooter. This IUPUI defense ranks in the bottom 15 in the country in 3 point defense. IUPUI overall is 359th out of 363 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

Detroit put up 89 points on IUPUI in the first game and that was without Gerald Liddell down low. Liddell is an elite offensive rebounder, and IUPUI is terrible on the defensive glass.

IUPUI's pace has picked up of late. On the season overall, they are playing about 4 possessions per game faster than a year ago. The Jaguars have a pretty good scorer in Jlynn Counter. 

Look for Detroit to push for points for Davis here, and that should lead to quite a few points on the board overall.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Portland State Vikings are all about pushing the pace. The first game between Weber State and Portland State played to a pace of 76 possessions. The final score was 84-68 in that one.

The Big Sky Conference is well known as a conference where there isn't much defense played. This is a late season game between two teams who aren't going to win the conference. In game 25 of the season or later with a total of 145 or lower, Big Sky overs are north of 60% in the last 8 years.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins beat the Lipscomb Bison 51-44 in their first meeting this year. I was on the under in that game, and I'm on the under again here. Jacksonville is elite at a couple things 1. Slowing down the pace of the game and 2. Defending beyond the 3 point line. 

Lipscomb relies heavily on shooting it from long range. The Bison are much improved themselves on the defensive end too. Jacksonville isn't efficient on offense and they are using more than 20 seconds per possession on offense. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave rank top five in the nation in tempo. Ron Hunter's team has really leaned into their pressing style this year. Tulane has gotten far more aggressive on offense as well. They have some great free throw shooters, which could be really important here since USF fouls at the highest rate of any team in the AAC. Tulane is shooting a whopping 79.92% from the free throw line as a team.

USF has indeed picked up their pace as well. The Bulls should get a lot of second chance points against the unique Tulane zone defense that struggles to grab defensive rebounds.

A really fast paced game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first time these two met it was 65-36 Cal State Fullerton. The Cal Poly offense is dreadful, but their defense has been giving many teams in the Big West a difficult time. 

These two teams both rank among the the 50 slowest paced teams in the country. There is nothing to suggest this game will be played at anything but a very slow pace.

Fullerton has been elite defensively on their home floor. The Titans offense has actually been better on the road as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The FIU Golden Panthers and the MTSU Blue Raiders are both pressing quite a bit. In the first meeting the game sailed over the total because of a lot of steals and quick scores in transition. Both teams are poor in transition defense, and both of these teams will get steals from their aggressive pressure.

MTSU has played five games in a row that have gone over this total. The Blue Raiders offense is really clicking right now. FIU is the fastest paced offense in the conference.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Toledo has one of the most efficient offenses in the country. The Rockets are 14th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 19th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are up against a Bowling Green team who is 334th in defensive efficiency in the country. Toledo put up 91 points in the first game between these two. Toledo has scored 91, 96, and 91 points in the last three meetings with Bowling Green.

The Bowling Green Falcons have been able to be more competitive at home this year. They are all about running and gunning so they'll keep the tempo moving here. Bowling Green shoots the 3 ball well and Toledo struggled to defend the 3.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have been a tremendous under team this year. Missouri State is excellent at controlling the pace. They are also very good defensively and they don't give up many second chance points. Missouri State has gone under this total in regulation in 9 of their last 10 games.

Northern Iowa has played some higher scoring teams in the MVC recently, but Missouri State is the best under team in the league right now and I think there is line value here based on N Iowa's recent higher scoring games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* One of the better late regular season totals angles has been taking a game between two teams who have a poor record and little to play for and bet the over. That has been especially true if it is a low total. That fits perfectly in this game. These two teams are last and second to last in the Sun Belt standings.

Georgia State has played quite a bit quicker in their last five or six games than what they did the rest of the season. Arkansas State does play slowly, but their defense isn't good. 

I think this total is a few points too low.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors rank 362nd out of 363 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. Merrimack takes a lot of contested jumpers that are low percentage looks. On the other end of the floor, Merrimack is fantastic on defense. Their unique full court zone pressure actually substantially slows the pace of the game. 

Sacred Heart plays much quicker than Merrimack in general, but they have had to slow their pace down a lot in recent meetings with Merrimack. Sacred Heart's defense is a lot better than it was a year ago. 

The first meeting between these two teams was 59-55 and it played to a pace of only 63 possessions. KenPom is projecting 130 points (safely under the number) here, but he is also projecting a pace of 68 possessions. I think that is a little too fast. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Stonehill Skyhawks have been playing some very good defense of late. Stonehill is second in the conference allowing just 0.94 points per possession. Stonehill has allowed 61 points or fewer in five straight contests. They have been mixing up the defenses nicely. On offense, Stonehill is 344th out of 363 teams in offensive efficiency. They have also been playing at a very slow pace of late.

Central Connecticut State is one of the slowest paced teams in the league. They rank fourth in defensive efficiency in the league as well. This is an offense that ranks 319th out of 363 in efficiency.

The first meeting between these two was 51-49 and played to a very slow pace of 58.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Marymount Lions pulled the massive upset in Spokane the first time these two teams met this year. Gonzaga will try to get revenge on the road here.

Loyola Marymount made it a point to slow the game down to a crawl in that first meeting and it worked. Gonzaga has played 26 games so far this year. Their first game against Loyola Marymount was played to the slowest tempo of any of their games so far this year. Why would Loyola not go with the same game plan here? I expect the Lions to try their hardest to keep this game in the halfcourt as much as possible.

Gonzaga has had some high scoring games lately, which has bumped this total up to a level that is several points too high in my opinion. If the Bulldogs shoot lights out this will lose, but I think the pace will be slower than the analytical sites are projecting.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers have settled into the role of a team stalling and attempting to be competitive in ugly low scoring contests. It worked when they pulled off the big upset over USC in their last game. Oregon State has seen six of their last eight games stay under this very low total. This is a team that takes a lot of bad jump shots and they are likely to struggle to score against a high quality Washington State defense.

Washington State has scored 52 and 56 points in their last couple games. The Cougars have been fantastic on defense though. They have held five of their last nine opponents to 58 points or less. 

A slow pace and an ugly game. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights have played much differently in recent weeks. Their average tempo has gone up quite a bit. Their offensive efficiency numbers are up a good amount as well. UCF has allowed 77 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. 

Memphis is playing much faster than they did a year ago. The Tigers are also clearly more efficient on offense than a year ago. Penny Hardaway's team doesn't have as many great shot blockers, and their defense is down some from last year. Memphis should be able to dictate the tempo here as the home favorite. Their pressure should cause turnovers and scores.

Both teams are great on the offensive glass and very weak on the defensive boards. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs are much better on offense than they have been in recent seasons. San Diego State was 167th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 31st so far this year. Matt Bradley is still the star, but he has gotten a lot more help this year. Transfers in of Trammell and Ledee have helped a lot. Adam Seiko is 39/80 from 3 point range as well.

Fresno State's defense was elite last year. It is no longer excellent. Fresno State was 37th in defensive efficiency last year. They are 104th this year. The Bulldogs give up too many second chance points, and San Diego State will take advantage of that weakness.

This extremely low total is usually just for games between two very poor offenses. That isn't the case in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Binghamton Bearcats are the second slowest paced team in the America East Conference. Binghamton is also third in defensive efficiency in the conference. NJIT has been a slow paced team historically. They are playing a bit faster this year than in the last couple years, but they have still been slower than an average team. 

NJIT is 337th in offensive efficiency in the country. This is a team that consistently takes some really bad shots. They are second to last in the conference in FTA/FGA. On defense, NJIT is good at defending without fouling and grabbing defensive boards.

Binghamton is #1 in effective FG percentage defense in league play.

The last four times these teams have played after regulation the games have been: 130 total points, 121, 123, and 122 points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays have been fantastic on defense in the last few weeks. Creighton is 12th in the nation in defensive efficiency on the season. They played without star big man Ryan Kalkbrenner for a few games earlier in the season, and their defense was much worse without him. The 7'1 Kalkbrenner is an elite shot blocker and defensive rebounder. 

Providence relies heavily on offensive rebounds and getting to the line on offense. Creighton is first in the nation in free throws allowed per 100 trips up the court. They don't foul much at all. Creighton is also 17th out of 363 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage.

The Providence will switch around from man to zone and even the 1-3-1 zone occasionally with Ed Cooley. Creighton hasn't been very efficient of late on offense. 

This is a critical game for both teams with it being late in the season and both teams still in the Big East title race. The bigger the game late in the regular season it is helpful for an under in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Morehead State Eagles lost at home to Southeast Missouri State 91-86 earlier this year. I had the over in that game, and I'm going to back the over again here. 

These two teams have a history of playing very high scoring games against each other. Both of these teams are aggressive and look to get to the basket a lot. There have been a bunch of foul shots in their recent meetings.

SE Missouri State has seen 10 of its last 12 games go over this total. The two that stayed below both hit at least 140 points. They are the fastest paced team in the league by a large margin. 

Morehead State is hitting 38.8% from three point range in OVC action. SE Missouri State is allowing opponents to shoot 40.4% from three point range in league play.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The George Washington Colonials have the worst defense in the A10 and it isn't very close. George Washington is 326th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They gave up 87 against Loyola Chicago on the road. They allowed 85 against Fordham on the road. They alloweed 75 at George Mason (a mediocre offense). 

St. Joe's lost 92-91 in OT in the first meeting between these two. That game went over the total comfortably in regulation, and the tempo was very quick. St. Joe's is 87th in the nation in tempo and George Washington is 92nd. The pace will be there again. 

St. Joe's should get a lot of open looks from 3 in this one. George Washington should get to the line quite a bit too.

The pace and efficiency matches up here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles have been an excellent offensive team all year. UConn slowed them down in their last game, but the Huskies defense is light years better than this Georgetown Hoyas defense which is just dreadful.

Marquette ranks first in shot selection in the country. The Golden Eagles are a top 15 team in terms of average possession length. They are pushing the pace. Look for Marquette to get a lot of easy looks against this Hoyas defense that is allowing 1.15 points per possession in league play.

Georgetown's offense is capable with Primo Spears as a good playmaker in the backcourt. They'll likely be playing catch up and have to keep pushing their pace.

The first game was 95-73 and it wasn't a fluke.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks travel to Philadelphia to take on the 76ers tonight. Philadelphia has a solid history of playing lower scoring games against good teams. The under is 15-3 in the last 18 games the Sixers have played against a team with a winning record.

The ref crew in this game is a combined under record of a very solid 54.03% to the under in more than 1,100 games. This is about the best ref crew you could hope for if betting an under.

The Knicks rank dead last in pace in their last ten games. The 76ers are 24th out of 30 as well. This game should be played in the halfcourt.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Southeast Missouri State is pushing the tempo to the extreme this year. They started the season playing quickly, and they have sped up even more as the season has gone along. Their games in the OVC have played to an average tempo of 75 possessions. They have seen six of their last eight games finish with 161 points or more.

Tennessee State prefers to play quickly as well, and they are 318th in defensive efficiency in the nation. Southeast Missouri State is first in the OVC in offensive efficiency. Tennessee State should live on the line here with the way Southeast Missouri State fouls. 

The last few meetings between these two have played to an average pace of about 75.5 possessions per game. I think this one is a track meet.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Illinois Leathernecks and UMKC Roos meet in a fairly meaningless Summit League matchup on Thursday night. After this game only four regular season contests are left for these two teams. Both of these teams are out of the running for the Summit League regular season title. 

Late season games between two teams who aren't highly motivated have gone toward the over in the last decade. 

The Summit League has been a tremendous "over" league in the past decade too. Blindly betting overs in this league would have you at better than 56%.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors rank first in defensive efficiency in the Northeast Conference. They also rank second in the NEC in effective field goal percentage defense.

Stonehill ranks second in the NEC in defensive efficiency. They rank first in the NEC in effective field goal percentage defense.

These are clearly the top two defenses in the league. 

The two teams rank 334th and 362nd in offensive efficiency in the nation. Both play at a slightly slower than average tempo as well.

The first game between these two finished at 106 points. Merrimack relies heavily on getting to the line to score, but Stonehill doesn't foul much at all. Stonehill relies on long range shots, but Merrimack is first in the league in 3 point defense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The USF Bulls and Memphis Tigers already met once this season. Memphis won a 93-86 track meet of a game. That game was played to a whopping 83 possessions. The Tigers shot 35 free throws and the Bulls shot 22 free throws. The teams combined to have 31 offensive rebounds.

Memphis always wants to run. The Tigers are 10th in average possession length this year. This Memphis team isn't settling for long distance shots as much either. They are taking it to the basket. USF lacks a shot blocker to deter them from getting to the basket here. 

USF changed their style of play this year. This team has previously wanted to play slowly, but Brian Gregory was very adamant that they would push the pace this year and they indeed have done just that. USF is averaging 71.8 possessions per game in the AAC. 

Look for both teams to live on the line here with the way both teams foul. The second chance opportunities will be high again. Barring some very poor shooting I think this gets past the total. I believe this one is several points too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is a game that will be played at a slow pace. I understand the total here needs to be set pretty low. I still think this total is a little too low. 

A total in the mid 120's is usually reserved for only matchups between two teams who are excellent on defense. These teams aren't great on defense. In fact, both of them are outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. 

San Jose State is top 75 in the nation in offensive efficiency. Fresno State has sped up their tempo a bit in recent games. The first meeting between these two was 74-64. I think this one likely tops 130 as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles always want to push the pace. Marquette is 12th in average possession length on the season. The Golden Eagles are also an impressive 4th in offensive efficiency. Shaka Smart's are 2nd in shot selection so it hasn't been a fluke. 

UConn is looking for revenge here, and the Huskies offenses has some clear advantages in this game. The Huskies are excellent on the offensive glass, and Marquette gives up a lot of second chance points. UConn has a big height advantage down low, and I think Sanogo and company can have a big game in this one.

The first game got to 158 points total, and there really wasn't anything about that one that stands out as an outlier.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference is known for having a lot of teams who play slowly. These two teams are second to last and last in the league in tempo. They are also both above average on defense. It helps that they are both below average on offense as well.

The first game between these two finished 61-57. Shot Quality believes it should have finished 61-55 so it was no fluke that it was low scoring. 

Missouri State has seen 7 of 13 MVC games stay under this very low total in regulation. Southern Illinois has seen 5 stay under this total overall. 

Neither team gets to the line much and both teams have struggled with wasted possessions from turnovers this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I think the Kansas State tempo change has been underrated by many. The Wildcats are easily the fastest paced team in the Big 12 under Jerome Tang this year. Texas is third in tempo, and they have actually played faster since Chris Beard has been gone.

The first game between these two was the ridiculous 116-103 win in Austin for Kansas State. I certainly don't expect an NBA score this time, but I do think this total is set too low. I have this being a game that gets into the 150's. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors rank 361st out of 363 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. This team settles for too many contested jumpers. They tend to play slowly as well. Merrimack ranks 288th in overall tempo. Merrimack is excellent on defense though. They have the best defense in the Northeast Conference. Joe Gallo's team runs a unique zone that both slows the game down and keeps opponents out of their normal offenses. 

St. Francis (PA) is relying on hitting a bunch of shots from long range, and Merrimack is best in the conference at defending the 3 ball. St. Francis also doesn't get many second chances, and that is the one weakness of Merrimack (defensive rebounding) on defense. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Madison Square Garden hosts this key Big Ten matchup. This is one of the best under venues in college basketball. The first game between these two finished at 127 with some nonsense at the end that led to 9 points in the final 40 seconds of a game that wasn't close. With a tough shooting background and two tough defenses I like the chances of this one staying lower scoring.

Take the under in this early tipoff. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northwestern Wildcats defense has slipped a lot in Big Ten play. In fact, they are 14th in the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage defense. Their biggest problem is giving up far too many easy looks from 3 point range. 

Michigan is more than capable of nailing some shots from long range. Michigan was 10/22 from 3 point range in their 85-78 win over NW a few weeks ago. The Wolverines will try to push the pace here in this one as well.

Northwestern has a history of starting faster in the season and sliding late in the year under Chris Collins. The Wildcats defense is typically what has worsened during the year. We're seeing that pattern again this year. Boo Buie is a good leader on offense and the Wildcats should be able to get some good looks on offense. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wagner Seahawks have been a straight under team of late. You have to go back to December 3rd to find a Division One Wagner contest that finished with a total higher than 131 points. That is 11 straight games staying under this total against DI opponents. Wagner is second in the league in defense and second worst in offense. Their single huge weakness on defense is fouling too much, but Sacred Heart is bottom 40 in the country in getting to the line.

Sacred Heart is much better defensively this year than they have been the last couple seasons. They do try to play quicker, but they aren't efficient on offense.

The first game finished 68-58. I think a total in the upper 120's would have made sense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two finished 59-48. UNC Greensboro has been absolutely locking teams down with their defense of late. The Spartans are a really athletic team that plays great help defense. 

Mercer has been without Kamar Robertson the last couple games due to an injury and he is questionable here. Even with Robertson the offense is a big weakness and without him they are really bad. Mercer has been drastically slowing down their pace of late.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are very good on defense in general. They are fantastic when playing on their home floor. Rutgers has a big home court advantage, and Steve Pikiell's team has been winning because of defense. Rutgers is 2nd in the nation (behind only Tennessee) in defensive efficiency. 

Minnesota has been without Dawson Garcia in their last two games, and he is questionable for this game. The Golden Gophers are averaging just 0.933 points per possession in Big Ten play. The Golden Gophers are 296th in overall tempo, so they do slow the game down quite a bit.

Rutgers has been at their best defensively at home against quality competition. They have played seven top 100 teams at home so far this year. They have allowed more than 57 points in regulation only one time. That was Iowa who scored a lot on them, but Minnesota's offense is nothing like Iowa.

Rutgers is allowing just 0.79 points per possession at home against top 100 opponents. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears are the slowest paced team in the Missouri Valley Conference. Missouri State is 350th out of 363 teams in the nation in tempo. The Bears have seen 8 of 12 games in the conference stay under this total in regulation. All 8 of those have been 127 points or lower, so there has been some margin there as well.

Missouri State's biggest strength on offensive is their ability to get offensive rebounds. Valparaiso is the 24th best defensive rebounding team in the league. I think they can neutralize much of the Bears presence on the offensive glass.

Valparaiso is using up 18.3 seconds on an average possession in the league, so they have been slowing things down too. 

From an effective field goal percentage standpoint, both of these teams are better on defense than offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats are 2nd in average possession length in the MAC. They attempt to push the pace. Eastern Michigan is 4th in average possession length and 2nd in overall tempo in the MAC. This should be a fast paced contest.

Eastern Michigan has shot the ball horribly from 3 point range. They should positively regress from long range in the end. This is a team that is shooting just 24% from 3 point range in MAC play. They will finish better than that in league play. Emoni Bates is a tough matchup.

Ohio's offense gets inside the paint a lot, and Eastern Michigan is bottom 20 in the nation at defending the paint. Eastern Michigan gives up all kinds of second chance points and Ohio thrives on the offensive boards.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Cal Poly has been a very good under team this year. The Mustangs have seen 7 of their last 11 games against Division One opponents finish at 124 points or fewer.  Cal Poly is 330th in tempo in the country. They are also 332nd in offensive efficiency. They are last in trips to the charity stripe in the Big West. Cal Poly has been riddled by wasted possessions due to non steal turnovers on offense this year.

Cal State Fullerton is third in the Big West in defensive efficiency. They just held a good UC Irvine team to 61 points in a win. They are reliant on the three point shot falling on offense, and this is a quality Cal Poly defense when it comes to defending beyond the arc.

A slow pace and a sloppy game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs just beat Portland 115-75 recently. They beat them 104-72 last year. Portland really struggles to defend the 3 point line, and they don't have a shot blocker inside either. The Bulldogs should be able to get out in transition against this Portland team.

Portland's offense has been much more efficient at home. The Pilots should find open looks here against a Gonzaga defense that has been really weak this year. Gonzaga ranks in the bottom half of the country in effective field goal percentage defense and shot selection allowed.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns have an interim coach in Rodney Terry who seems to be pushing the tempo a bit more than Chris Beard was. Texas has had a bunch of very high scoring games of late. Texas is 29th in average possession length this year, so they are really moving. In their last 12 games, 10 of them have finished at 134 points or higher. Texas is better on offense than defense this year.

The Tennessee defense is excellent, but they appear due for at least some regression. The Volunteers also commit quite a few fouls, and Texas has been getting to the line a lot lately. I think Texas can put some scoring pressure on them.

Tennessee has the edge from beyond the arc in this game on offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Nicholls State team is much different than last year's team. Nicholls is playing almost 6 possessions per game slower in league play than they did a year ago. They have played the 62nd toughest slate of offenses this year. They have faced only the 201st toughest slate of defenses so far this season.

Incarnate Word has always been one of the slower paced teams in the Southland Conference. Incarnate Word is 342nd in offensive efficiency in the country. 

Both of these teams struggle with good offensive rebounding teams, but neither of these teams have been good on the offensive glass this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons and Elon Phoenix already played once this year. That was a very slow 59 possession game where Drexel won 62-50. This might be a tick faster, but I still expect a very slow tempo. 

Elon is 338th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Phoenix have all sorts of issues getting open looks. They are gradually slowing their tempo as the season has moved along. They don't get to the line much or get many second chance points.

Drexel is 61st in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. The Dragons are coming off a terrible second half performance against North Carolina A&T last game and I think they'll be better here. They are great at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles have been putting up big numbers even with their secondary guys in Farrakhan and Acuff shooting the ball far worse than their career averages from the 3 point line. I think their numbers regress positively toward the mean from long distance. Emoni Bates is a matchup nightmare for everyone in the MAC. The problem for E Michigan is their defense is just atrocious. They give up all kinds of second chance points, and their defense in the paint is awful.

Miami Ohio has been better at home, while the Eastern Michigan offense has been more efficient on the road. 

Miami shoots 79.4% from the line and E Michigan is bottom 45 in the country in FTA/FGA defensively. E Michigan shoots 74.5% and Miami has committed more fouls in MAC play than any other team.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Stetson Hatters have improved their offensive efficiency a great deal this year. Stetson has 3 guys on their team getting a bunch of minutes who all shoot 41% or higher from 3 point range. Stetson is going to put up a bunch of shots from long range, and Queens has struggled badly defending beyond the arc this year. 

Queens has been a great over team this season. They are 79th in tempo. They are also 31st in effective field goal percentage offense and 302nd in the nation on defense. The Royals have seen 4 of their last 5 games finish at 166 points or more. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jimmy Butler is expected to be back in the lineup tonight for the Heat. Miami has had some very low scoring games of late, but those were against teams who are very good on defense. 

Orlando is a bottom six or eight defense in the NBA. The Magic have played 17 of their last 23 games above this posted total. I think the Heat will have more success offensively against this Magic defense that is especially bad at defending the paint. 

Miami's defense is a good one, but the Magic are averaging 1.211 points per possession in their last five games.  Orlando's youngsters are starting to get much more efficient on offense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Abilene Christian Wildcats have the fastest average possession length in the conference, and it isn't very close. This team is using full court pressure and trying to get out in transition where they are more efficient. Grand Canyon no longer has great ball handlers with Blacksher injured. 

Grand Canyon is playing a bit faster this year. They are also much more efficient on offense. Grand Canyon put up 95 points in their game against Abilene last year. The Antelopes of Grand Canyon are worse on defense this season. They aren't nearly as good at defending the long range jumper. 

Grand Canyon's last three games finished at 150 points or higher. Eight of their last nine have shot quality expected scores of at least 139 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The SIU Edwardsville Cougars are first in the Ohio Valley Conference in defensive efficiency. SIU Edwardsville has focused on this end of the floor in the past year, and it is really showing right now. This team is forcing a lot of turnovers, and Tennessee Tech is likely to waste quite a few possessions in this one.

The SIU Edwardsville offense is highly reliant on their ability to get to the free throw line. In fact, they are 18th in FTA/FGA in the country. That could be a problem here though since Tenn Tech is 8th in FTA/FGA allowed. The Golden Eagles are best in the conference at defending without fouling. Tenn Tech hosts this game and they have been great defensively at home. They have given up just 63, 62, and 49 points in their last three home games.

The pace here should be relatively slow too. Edwardsville has slowed down through the year, and Tenn Tech is one of the slowest teams in the conference.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bellarmine Knights have really hit the brakes of late. Bellarmine is 360th in tempo out of 363 teams in the country. They are averaging 20 seconds per possession. They have played eight of their last nine games under this total. The Knights almost never get to the line and they don't get second chances very often at all either. Bellarmine is first at defending without fouling in the Atlantic Sun Conference.

Eastern Kentucky is a fast paced team, but they aren't very efficient and their games have stayed under this number quite a few times. In fact, they have seen 6 of their last 11 games finish at 137 total points or fewer. 

Peter Suder is questionable for this game for Bellarmine which would hurt their scoring ability even more.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars and UCF Knights met on December 31. The posted total in that game was 121. We're getting a number much higher here. I think the adjustment here has been a bit too large. 

The first game did go over the total, but both teams shot the ball better than you would expect in a game with two excellent defenses. UCF is 36th in defensive efficiency and 31st in effective field goal percentage defense. Houston is 2nd in defensive efficiency and 2nd in effective field goal percentage defense.

Houston is coming off a stunning loss to Temple. I expect Kelvin Sampson's team to lock things down on defense here. The Cougars have elite shot blockers in the paint to bother UCF 

UCF's defense has been much better at home, and I think they can make things tough on Houston too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos defense ranks 343rd in defensive efficiency and 345th in effective field goal percentage defense (out of 363 teams in the nation). Western Michigan puts up a bunch of long range jumpers on offense, and Ohio does struggle against the 3 point shot. The Bobcats are 275th in 3 point FG percentage defense. Western Michigan's Lamar Norman and Javaughn Hannah are capable of getting hot from the outside. 

Ohio is averaging 1.11 points per possession at home this year. The Bobcats are 50th quickest in average possession length in the country. They have put up big numbers on their home floor, and I see no reason to believe they won't do the same in this one.

The Bobcats should control the pace, and Western Michigan has been happy to run with the fastest paced teams in the league so far this year. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams have met twice this year. The posted total in each of the first two games was 235.5. That's about where this one should be again. We're getting several points of line value. This one is inflated due to recent results.

Atlanta's defense is league average in the last ten games. The Bulls are 10th in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. These two teams both play near the league average in tempo as well. 

These two teams both come into this game with a high fatigue factor. I think the pace will stay slower than expected here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Peter's Peacocks are a perfect team for a very low scoring game. St. Peter's plays at a really slow pace. The Peacocks are awful on offense. They are pretty good on defense. The one thing that can sometimes get them is they foul too much. Niagara is their opponent here though, and the Purple Eagles don't get to the line very much.

Niagara ranks 361st in average possession length. The Purple Eagles are also better on defense than offense. 

St. Peter's is 353rd in average possession length. This will be one of the slowest paced games you will ever see.

St. Peter's has played four straight games under this total in regulation. Three of the four have been 110 points or fewer in regulation.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Craig Smith's Utah Utes are playing some really good defense this year. Smith's teams in the past at South Dakota and Utah State have been excellent on defense. They play tremendous help side defense. The Utes should make it tough on a Washington offense that isn't consistent at all.

Washington's matchup zone can be tricky to beat, and Utah isn't loaded with outside shooters by any means.

I think this one is a few points too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Portland Pilots are a different team playing at home. Portland is averaging 1.103 points per possession at home (0.95 on the road). They are also playing 2.2 possessions per game faster on their home court. 

Pepperdine is allowing just 0.97 points per possession at home, but they are on the road here and they are allowing 1.10 points per possession on the road. Pepperdine is averaging 74.6 possessions per game on the road.

This is a very high total, but this should be a track meet between the two teams who rank last and second to last in the WCC in defensive efficiency.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky Conference is well known for overs through the years. There isn't very much defense played by many teams in this conference. The over is cashing at better thna 56% in Big Sky conference games in the last 8 years. 

Northern Arizona is one of the worst defenses in the conference. According to Shot Quality, Northern Arizona is 345th in shot selection allowed out of 363 teams in the country.

Eastern Washington is a fast paced team, and they are the most efficient offense in the Big Sky. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best defenses in the country. Iowa State is 6th in defensive efficiency in the nation. Iowa State is first in turnover percentage forced on defense. Oklahoma State lacks good ball handlers, and they are likely to waste a lot of possessions on offense here.

Oklahoma State is always good defensively under Boynton and they are again this year. Iowa State likes to get into the paint, but Oklahoma State is third in the nation in blocked shots percentage. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgetown Hoyas have the worst defense in the Big East, and it isn't close. Xavier is averaging 1.18 points per possession for the season. The Musketeers push the pace. Xavier is averaging 15.9 seconds per possession on offense. They are going to push in transition here, and Georgetown's transition defense has been dreadful. In transition opponents are averaging 1.45 points per possession against the Hoyas.

Xavier put up 102 points in the first meeting. They aren't likely to score that many here, but I think they put up a big number.

Both teams have a poor 3 point defense. Georgetown should get behind and then push the pace more as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison host the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles on Thursday night in a huge Summit League showdown. North Dakota State beat Oral Roberts all three times they played them last year, but Oral Roberts has been the best team in the league so far this year. ORU will be looking for revenge here.

The big difference between Oral Roberts last year and this year is their ability to guard. Oral Roberts gave up 1.07 points per possession in the league last year. They are giving up just 0.929 points per possession in the league this year. Their pace is a bit slower as well.

North Dakota State is a defense first team who prefers to slow the game down. The Bison have played the 65th toughest slate of offenses so far this year, and only the 295th toughest slate of defenses. Their numbers are skewed and their defense is a pretty good one.

This is too high of a number for too good defenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green are a very good under team. The Mean Green went extremely slow last year. They were the slowest paced team in the country. They are once again the slowest paced team in the country. Last year, North Texas averaged using 21.2 seconds per possession. This year they are averaging using 22.3 seconds per possession in Conference USA play. 

North Texas' highest game total this year has been 136 points. That is remarkable in 19 games. North Texas has two games that has finished 132 points as well. All the rest of the games have been under this total.

Last year when North Texas played Rice three times they beat them by scores of 75-43, 67-44, and 68-50. 

Rice is a similar team offensively this year as last season. The Owls are a little better on defense as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are third in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Scarlet Knights have played two of their last four games to a regulation total of 114 points. 

Rutgers is up against a Michigan State team that is very defensive minded this year. Michigan State is 36th in defensive efficiency. They have also faced the second toughest slate of offenses so far this year. Michigan State's defense is very battle tested. 

Michigan State is 309th in tempo this year. The Spartans are playing much slower than they have in recent seasons. Rutgers also prefers a slow pace and a game in the halfcourt. 

Open shots should be tough to come by in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chattanooga Mocs run some great offensive sets with Dan Earl as their head coach. The Mocs rank first in the nation in floor spacing. They also rank 97th percentile in shot making. 

Chattanooga takes a lot of 3's, and they have a big edge here against Furman. The Mocs are 28th in 3 point field goal percentage. The Furman Bulldogs are 271st at defending the 3 so far this year. 

Furman has the fastest average possession length of any team in the SoCon. The Paladins are 6th in effective field goal percentage offense. Chattanooga is a below average defense.

Both teams put up a bunch of shots from long range and they have a clear advantage against the defense in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNLV Rebels rank first in the Mountain West in tempo. UNLV is using only 16 seconds on an average possession this year. They are forcing a bunch of steals and getting out in transition as often as possible.

Utah State ranks first in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage. UNLV is allowing 40% from 3 in the MWC thus far this season. The Aggies will get open shots from long distance in this one.

Utah State ranks 56th overall in the nation in tempo too. They aren't likely to try to slow the pace down here. The last meeting between these two was 90-75.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have changed their style of play of late. Western Michigan is pushing the pace a lot more of late. They are averaging over 72 possessions per game in the Mid American Conference action so far this season. 

Western Michigan has scored 85 and 108 points in their last two games. They won't be able to keep that up, but this offense appears to be getting much better. Lamar Norman is capable of going off at anytime too.

Ball State is 75th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Cardinals take good shots and they run good sets. They are up against a Western Michigan team that ranks 357th in effective field goal percentage defense. Ball State should get a lot of open looks. Ball State is 4th in FTA/FGA too. 

Both offenses have a clear advantage here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Charlotte brings the really slow pace here. They are the second slowest paced team in the country out of 363 teams. UTEP is 251st in pace.

UTEP's offense is 332nd out of 363 in efficiency. They are a terrible shooting team. They are second worst in the nation in both 3 point percentage and free throw percentage. On the other side, UTEP is excellent on defense. The Miners are 58th in defensive efficiency.

Charlotte is elite at getting defensive rebounds and defending without fouling.

UTEP has seen 6 of their 15 games against Division One opponents have a total of 118 points or fewer at the end of regulation. Charlotte has had 5 games go to 118 points or lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a rare early game in the week for both these teams. It is Martin Luther King Jr. Day and these teams will meet in the afternoon. 

New Orleans is on a long road trip, and they are without Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. The Pelicans frontcourt will likely have trouble with Evan Mobley and company down low on defense for the Cavs.

Cleveland still ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA for the season overall. The Cavs are home and are the better team in this situation (injuries accounted for). Cleveland should be able to control the pace here.

Cleveland is coming off a road trip where they were worn down as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks rank dead last in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. New York is 11th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency during that period. They are very good on the defensive glass. This is a team that typically doesn't want to get in track meet type games.

Detroit plays fast, but they are bottom ten in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Pistons don't have that many consistent scoring options on offense.

Both of these teams rank lowly in assist percentage.

This is an early game where we could see some scoring droughts in an odd start time.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves haven't scored more than 62 points in a road game all season. Bradley has been good on offense at home, but on the road their games have been staying well under the total. 

Bradley has the best defense in the MVC. The Braves are 28th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 16th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Drake is much improved on defense. The Bulldogs are 11th in defensive rebounding percentage, so Bradley shouldn't get many second chances. Drake's offense is less efficient this year since they have fewer quality scoring options.

Neither of these teams get to the line very often.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Dakota State Jackrabbits have been excellent on offense for many years, so many expected them to be that once again this year. They aren't even close to the same team. South Dakota State now ranks in the 30th percentile in the nation in shot selection. They don't have the guys to space the floor any more. 

South Dakota is relying heavily on the 3 ball, but South Dakota State's defense has been good especially on the perimeter. 

This is a game where I believe this total is too high for this version of S Dakota State. The oddsmakers are trying to catch up to this very weak offense of the Jackrabbits.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jordan "Jelly" Walker and UAB are one of the fastest paced teams in the country. UAB puts up a lot of 3 pointers, and the LA Tech Bulldogs are among the worst in the nation in defending beyond the arc. UAB also has a huge edge on second chance opportunities against a LA Tech defense that is terrible on the defensive glass.

LA Tech should find points with their pressure and breakaway scores after a steal. UAB has struggled getting back in transition this year. They also take the ball to the basket a lot, and UAB is lacking shot blockers in the paint.

Take the over here.