Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Over* The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are clearly playing faster this season. Eran Ganot's team excels in the transition and CS Fullerton hasn't been good on transition defense. Also, Hawaii ranks top 20 in the nation in free throws attempted and CS Fullerton is consistently a team that fouls a bunch year after year. Fullerton also gives up a lot of open looks from three and Hawaii has some solid outside shooters.

The Fullerton Titans love to play at an extremely fast tempo. The tempo in this game should be quick enough that it will take some pretty bad shooting numbers to keep this one under.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* UT Arlington has sped up in a huge way this year. This is a team that ranked 11th in the Sun Belt in tempo two years ago. They ranked seventh in the Sun Belt in tempo last year. They rank first so far this year in tempo. Arlington is going to try to get out in transition and force some turnovers and get run out chances here.

Little Rock has seen two good defenses in their last four games (B2B games in the Sun Belt this year). They face a much weaker defense here.

Both of these teams make a habit of getting to the free throw line and that could be key here as I expect a close game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors were a consistent under team last year. They didn't have a single game above 137 in regulation in league play last year. 

Fairleigh Dickinson and Merrimack met twice last year and after regulation the final totals were 110 and 114. 

These two teams played on Thursday night and the final total was 113 points. Now, we get a posted total of 141 points? 

Merrimack is playing somewhat quicker this year, so I do expect this game to be a bit higher scoring, but this is a big number. Merrimack is bad offensively. Fairleigh Dickinson is far worse on offense this year, and they have been bad against zone defenses in recent seasons. Merrimack's zone should continue to bother them.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Mount St. Mary's plays at the slowest pace of any team in the NEC. Central Connecticut State hasn't really been able to force Mt. St. Mary's to play at their faster pace in their recent meetings.

The second game in these back to back situations have trended to being slightly lower scoring. Mt. St. Mary's is still going to play very slowly. C Connecticut State is still a very inefficient team. Neither of these teams get to the line much at all, and both have struggled to get second chance points this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These two teams played twice last year with the final totals being 137 and 138 points. They then played on Thursday and the final total was 134. Since Sacred Heart shot the ball poorly from 3 in Thursday's game I expect a few more points this time, but this number is too high.

St. Francis (PA) also shot the ball far better than normal. This is a team that was 1.11 points per possession in the league last year. They are averaging 0.95 points per possession this year. They just put up 1.17 points per possession on Thursday night. 

Sacred Heart has slowed the tempo down some this year, and St. Francis is far worse on offense and a little better on defense.

I think this total should be in the 138-139 range. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Niagara has been worse on offense this year than they were a year ago. I think they are due for some positive regression. This team has nearly the same guys as they did a year ago when they were amazing from the field. They are still atrocious on defense as they were a year ago.

Quinnipiac has sped up their pace some this year. They have been much better on defense this year, but I think they are going to regress negatively in a big way going forward. I don't buy that this team all at once went from a subpar defense to number 2 in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They have yet to face a decent offense. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds and Weber State Wildcats both rank in the top 20 in the country in free throw shots attempted. Both of these teams also foul more than an average team. I would expect a bunch of trips to the line in this game. Both of these teams shoot the ball very well from the line on the season.

Southern Utah is playing a bit quicker of late. Simon is a coach who has talked about wanting his team to speed up their pace of play.

Weber State is 17th quickest in the country in average possession length on offense. The Wildcats defense has amazing numbers so far this season in the Big Sky, but I don't expect those lofty numbers to continue. They are an average defense at best. 

Both of these teams have played a bunch of offenses who are very weak. These two offenses are an upgrade. I see a lot of pace and plenty of free throws. This should be a close game too and a foul fest late or overtime are possibilities.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Morehead State has been a great under team so far this year. The Eagles are much better on the defensive end this season, and they have drastically slowed their tempo down. 

Morehead State now ranks in the bottom 25 teams in the country in terms of tempo. It has led to 7 of their 13 games against Division One opponents staying under this low total.

SE Missouri State and Morehead State just met on Saturday and the final was 64-50. 

SE Missouri State relies heavily on getting to the free throw line on offense to score. Morehead State isn't a team that fouls very much at all. SE Missouri State then is left taking a lot of tough 3's, and this team hasn't been good from deep this season. 

We saw only 63 possessions in the game when these two met on Saturday. Something similar here is what I expect.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Illinois State Redbirds rank second in possession length (second quickest) in the MVC so far this year. Bradley ranks first in that same metric. 

Bradley talked about speeding up in the preseason. They didn't play very fast in the non-conference games, but now that they are playing conference foes we are seeing a clear tick up in pace of play.

Illinois State might have the worst defense in the Missouri Valley Conference. They are allowing almost 1.13 points per possession on the season thus far. Bradley should be able to put up a good number here. 

Bradley's defense excels in the paint, but they are below average at defending the 3 point line. Illinois State puts up a bunch of 3 pointers and they should make their fair share.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Boise State is clearly a very good team. The Broncos have the ability to beat some very good teams with their balance on both sides of the ball. Still, their stats are a bit inflated so far this year because of the really weak schedule they have played. 

Boise State has played the 311th toughest (very weak) slate of defenses according to KenPom. The Broncos averaged 1.091 points per possession in the MWC two years ago. They averaged 1.056 points per possession last year. They are averaging a whopping 1.227 points per possession so far this year.

Fresno State will try to slow the pace of this game down. Fresno State is also weak on offense, and this is the best Boise State defensive team we have seen for a long time. Boise State is going to regress on offense (it might not be this game but it will happen) and this total has gotten high enough that I have to back the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* We have a meeting of two teams who shoot the 3 ball very well in this one. Furman is 48th in the country in 3 point percentage. VMI is 30th in the country in 3 point percentage. VMI is miserable at defending beyond the arc. Furman is slightly below average. I expect a lot of good looks from beyond the arc in this one. 

Furman has sped up their pace a lot this season. I think this team should be able to get quite a few chances in transition against a VMI defense that has been weak in transition all season. 

VMI's offensive efficiency at home this year has been excellent. The Keydets tempo is also clearly faster this year than it was a season ago.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I'll take the under again here just as I did last night. High Point and Longwood have consistently played very slow paced games against each other. The same was true again last night.

The long term trend for these back to back games has been for the second game to be lower scoring than the first on average. That certainly won't happen in every case, but the defenses have stepped things up a bit most of the time in the second contest.

Here, Longwood is highly unlikely to be able to shoot the ball the way they did last night. Longwood shot 72.2% from 2 and 38.7% from 3 last night. This is a very poor offense overall.

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The High Point Panthers are much better on defense than they were a year ago. High Point always plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the Big South. Tubby Smith's team isn't about to run in these conference games. 

Longwood has played the 305th toughest (very easy) schedule of defenses so far this year. Still, Longwood is averaging just 0.95 points per possession. The Lancers are playing almost two full seconds slower per possession than they did a year ago as well, so they should be happy to play at a slow pace as well.

High Point hasn't played a game in 2021. We've seen many teams come off these long breaks and struggle on the offensive end. 

Last year one of the games between these two went over this total by one point. The other meeting finished at only 111 points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are 5-0 to the under with Draymond Green in the lineup. Draymond Green can be an offensive liability at times, especially when the Warriors only have one elite shooter around him instead of two (with Klay Thompson out this year). Green though is the team's best defender and he has really helped the Warriors on that end of the floor.

The Lakers have the number one defensive efficiency rating in the NBA in their last five games. When they are engaged, the Lakers have a very athletic team that can really shut down the opposition.

The Lakers should have the lead in this game late, and LA has been good at slowing the pace down when they do have the lead in the fourth quarter.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils started the season out playing extremely fast. It wasn't working at all. They also had a couple key injuries hit in the last few games. They have had to play without their best player, Kam'ron Cunningham. Between being very unsuccessful and losing their top scoring option, it appears this team has decided to turn the tempo down.

This is a team that was number one in the nation in tempo earlier this year, and now they have been the single slowest paced team in the SWAC in their three contests in the league. Their last two games have finished with 130 and 115 points total. 

Southern is one of the better defensive teams in the conference and I don't expect Mississippi Valley State to score many points here.

Southern is an average paced team. This total is several points too high based on recent tempo trends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies have the best defense in the Big East. UConn has several bigs on the inside who are very long and are great shot blockers. You aren't going to get many easy looks near the basket against this UConn team. 

That's important since St. John's relies heavily on shooting from two point range rather than beyond the arc. I think St. John's will find it much harder than normal to score in this one. 

UConn also plays at the second slowest pace of any team in the Big East. The only team that is slower than them is Butler. Butler beat St. John's 69-57 recently. 

UConn is without star James Bouknight and the team's scoring ability definitely takes a hit without him. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics are still without Jayson Tatum. Tatum had been an offensive machine early this year, and he is a huge loss on that end of the floor. 

Tristan Thompson should get a bunch of minutes in the paint here with the Celtics very shorthanded in the frontcourt. Thompson is a really good defender and he should slow the Knicks down inside. Thompson isn't very good offensively and him playing more is a positive for the under.

Which NBA team is playing at the slowest pace in the last five games? The Knicks and it isn't very close. They are averaging only 93 possessions per contest in that time.

Boston put up a big point total against Orlando, but the Magic rank second worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. The Magic also play pretty quickly.

This is an early start on Sunday, and these early games on Sunday have been very good under bets in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars are still a very good team this year, but they aren't nearly as efficient on offense as they were a year ago. They lost very key pieces in Haws, Childs, and Toolson. 

BYU is actually much better on defense this year though. They have Haarms in the middle to keep people out of the paint a bit. They also have athletic guards who are quick and stay in front of their man.

San Francisco has slowed their pace a bit in recent games, and I think the Dons are okay with a more defensive contest here.

I think this one should be priced 4 or 5 points lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* South Alabama won lost night 73-64. Appalachian State shot the ball really poorly from the floor. That was surprising given that South Alabama has what is probably the worst defense in the Sun Belt. I would expect Appalachian State to bounce back with a better shooting performance here. There were very few free throws in last night's contest. There are likely to be a few more today. 

Last year's meetings between these two flew over this total and yesterday's game should have been a little higher.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Air Force Falcons play at the slowest pace of any team in the Mountain West. Wyoming has pushed the tempo against several teams this year, but they have also had the occasional slow paced contest. I think Air Force can dictate the tempo in this game. 

Wyoming has shot the ball well so far this year, but they have regression signs on offense. They have been playing a bunch of really weak defenses and their numbers should come back down to their expected outputs.

Air Force has been better defensively at home, and they get this contest at home.

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces are playing at the single slowest pace of any team in basketball in conference play. They are using 21.7 seconds in an average possession. That is running the shot clock down to 8.3 seconds on average, which is stall ball at its best. 

Bradley plays at an average pace, but the Braves are clearly better on defense than offense. Bradley has already played a couple very low scoring games this year and Evansville is the slowest paced team they have played.

I wouldn't expect transition points in this one. Both teams run the clock and look for a jumper. This is a low total, but it is low for a good reason.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs want to play very fast this year. They have been using a full court press to try to create scoring opportunities in transition. UNC Greensboro also uses pressure defense. Both of these teams foul a lot and their games can end up adding up quickly late in the game because of the trips to the stripe.

They just played a couple days ago and the final total was 150. Samford was 5/26 from 3 in that game. Both teams shot below 65% from the free throw line as well. That game should have been near 160 instead of 150.

With a total slightly lower here, I'll take the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mercer Bears are healthy once again. This Mercer offense is going to do some major damage with Alvarez and Cummings in the backcourt. This is an excellent offensive team.

Western Carolina has a star on offense in Faulkner. The Catamounts have been out of action lately, but they will be one of the better offenses and one of the worse defenses in this conference. 

Look for a fast pace and the offenses to have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State 57-45 win over San Diego State on Thursday night was very impressive. Utah State doesn't have Merrill this year and that really hurts their offense. Their defense is even better this year though. 

San Diego State lost their key contributors on offense from last year as well, but they are even better on defense also.

This game is totaled right about where the first one was, and I think that is too high. Open looks will be very tough to come by in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders had 5 players out due to COVID and contract tracing issues last weekend. Their coach said this week that at least a couple of those guys will be out again this weekend. 

MTSU had been playing very fast earlier in the season, but they slowed things down drastically without their star players last weekend. They played two very low scoring games (123 and 123 points) against a very fast paced FIU team that usually piles up the points. Now, MTSU takes on a Southern Miss team that might be the best under team in Conference USA. 

Southern Miss plays at an extremely slow pace and they don't have much of an identity on offense. The Golden Eagles are improved on defense as are the Blue Raiders this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I had the Louisiana under last game against Little Rock and that was the right side, but it lost due to overtime. Louisiana is far worse on offense than they have been in most of their recent seasons. They are also far better on defense thanks to a couple big shot blockers in the middle of the lane. While Louisiana does still play fast, this is a team that has had their totals posted too high. Only one of their games against a Division One opponent has gone over this posted total in regulation.

UT Arlington has been up and down in terms of pace. This could be a fast paced game. Still, I'm not sure the efficiency on offense will be there. Arlington is shorthanded right now and that plays a role in this wager as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This number has been bet down to a point where I have to back the over. South Alabama is one of the worst defensive teams in the country. They don't play particularly fast, but many of their games still end up getting to a high number. 

Appalachian State's offense has improved in their second year under good offensive minded coach Dustin Kerns. 

The two games last year between these two teams finished at 152 and 148 points. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Monmouth played fast last year, but they are playing at a whole different level this season. The Hawks are pushing the ball in transition as fast as they ever have. They rank 7th in the nation in overall tempo so far this season. 

Quinnipiac has shown that they typically play to the pace of their opponent. They played slow games against Manhattan, but played very fast against Fairleigh Dickinson and New Hampshire. 

The two meetings between these two last year both sailed over this total finishing at 154 and 167 points. 

I see the pace being very quick here. If we see a tempo of 75 possessions, the two teams don't even have to average 1 point per possession to get us to this posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Washington shot the ball far over their season averages in their last game against California. I don't expect them to shoot the ball well against this USC defense.

Washington shoots 26.7% from three point range on the season. The Huskies like to get inside and try to get to the rim. That won't be easy against a USC team that ranks fourth in the nation in blocked shot percentage. USC's Evan Mobley is a difference maker on the interior and he should give Washington's offense a ton of trouble here.

The USC offense has been very inconsistent this year. USC had a terrible time with the Washington zone defense last season. They scored 40 points in the first meeting against Washington and only 62 in the second meeting.

This total is inflated by a few points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Portland State Vikings are one of my favorite teams to take an over with. Portland State presses all game long and forces the tempo. They are going to put the opposition on the free throw line a bunch of times. Montana State shot free throws at 74% last year and they are at 74% again so far this year. They should take advantage of these opportunities.

Portland State's offense has been bad so far this year, but they have played some solid defenses. The Portland State defense has been even worse, and they haven't faced many teams who can shoot the ball well at all. Montana State is a solid offensive team.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers and Indiana Hoosiers have both had six games already this year that have stayed under this total in regulation. That's a really high number for this early in the season with a total set this low. Both teams are more than capable of playing in very low scoring contests.

Purdue has drastically slowed their pace in recent weeks. They played a 66-58 final against a fast paced Illinois team. They then won 55-54 against a relatively fast paced Michigan State team. 

Indiana is much better defensively than they were a year ago. They played faster early this year, but they have settled back into a pace slightly slower than last year in conference play.

I think this is a tight low scoring contest where the defenses have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles are a completely different team than they were a year ago. Marquette played at a fast pace last year (60th in the country). They have slowed down drastically this season (249th in tempo in the country). Howard isn't here getting to the line all the time and creating for himself and his teammates. This Marquette team is a little better on defense and a little worse on offense as well.

Providence has shot the ball much better than expected so far this year. The Friars are improved on offense, but if we take a look at how many long two point jumpers and contested 3's they have made this season, it certainly appears they are due for some regression on the offensive end. The Friars defense can mix and match man and zone defenses to frustrate their opposition.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Bowling Green Falcons are the favorites in the MAC for good reason. Justin Turner is a star and this Bowling Green offense is going to score a lot of points this year. They have failed to reach 83 points in only one of their MAC games so far this season. Bowling Green forces the tempo, and they'll try to get out in transition often in this game.

Ball State would likely prefer to slow things down a bit, but they are likely to be playing from behind in this one. The Cardinals lost their top two defenders from a year ago, and this is a team that can be scored on now. Ball State has allowed 78 and 86 points in their last two contests. 

Look for Bowling Green to put pressure on the Ball State defense early on and this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs and Memphis Grizzlies played a 94-90 game on January 7th, and this total is simply too high given how many play makers are out of the lineup for both teams.

It should come as no surprise that without Ja Morant the Memphis Grizzlies have played far slower on offense. In their last four games, Memphis ranks as the 4th slowest team in the NBA. In the Cavs last four games, they have been the single slowest paced team in the NBA. 

This projects as a sloppy game played at a slow pace, and this line is quite a bit too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls take on the LA Clippers at Staples Center in a early tipoff on Sunday afternoon. 

The under is 32-16 in Clippers home games that start at 5 pm eastern or earlier. The under has done very well in Sunday early games across the NBA in recent years overall.

The Clippers are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA thus far this season. Chicago has been shooting lights out, but the Clippers do have some better guys to guard White and Lavine than most teams do. I would expect their shots  to be contested better in this contest.

I'll take the under with this early game with a high total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes aren't a team I'm anxious to bet an under with, but I think this number is a little too high.

The Big Ten is notorious for being a great under conference when totals are set very high. Iowa and Minnesota just played a game recently which went to 83-83 after regulation (just over this total), and that was a game where both teams shot lights out and went to the line a combined 67 times. 

Minnesota has slowed their pace down some in recent contests, and I wouldn't be surprised if they try to slow down some here. 

Iowa is an amazing offense, but they are due for a little regression on offense. The Hawkeyes are averaging 1.18 points per possession in the Big Ten. They averaged 1.09 points per possession in league play last year.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* Utah Valley is without a couple key players due to COVID. They drastically slowed the pace of the game down yesterday and it finished at 127 points total. I don't know why they would speed things up again when it worked out well for them last night.

The two meetings between these two last year finished at 139 points and 126 points. 

I look for another slower paced game with this total being quite a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns are a completely different team this year. Theo Akwuba is a tremendous shot blocker down low and he has made this defense light years better than it was a year ago. 

These two teams played last night and it was a slower paced game that finished at 130 points. Little Rock is the team that wants to slow things down and they likely will here too. Louisiana has that underrated defense and I think their games continue to be lined too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* FIU/MTSU over was a play of mine yesterday which lost. MTSU had four guys out due to contract tracing for COVID and injuries. At least three of those guys including their point guard are expected out today per an MTSU beat writer. 

MTSU stalled in a big way last night. This was a team who averaged shooting the ball within 16 seconds of getting possession. Last night, they used three seconds per possession more. Without their star guards they clearly decided to slow things down. I don't think that changes here.

Both of these teams normally play fast, but both turn it over a lot and aren't very efficient on offense.

Take the under with MTSU being shorthanded.

*4 Star Play Under* The Butler Bulldogs are playing shorthanded, and they have decided to play at an extremely slow pace. They are using 20.0 seconds of the shot clock on average so far this year in Big East play. That's one of the slowest paces you will see anywhere. 

UConn has slowed their pace down drastically this year because they have all kinds of height and would rather be a halfcourt team. The Huskies are great on the defensive end. They contest everything in the paint very well. You'll have to beat this team from the outside. Butler hasn't been a good outside shooting team this season.

I see this one being played at a pace of about 61 possessions. Both teams scoring  around 1.04 or 1.05 points per possession (higher than you would expect with two good defenses) still would keep this under the total. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These two teams met twice last year and the final totals were 114 and 121 points. 

Siena just played its first two games of the season against Monmouth who plays at the fastest pace of any team in the MAAC. The Saints had higher scoring games than they normally will because of their opponent.

Fairfield is a good defensive team who really struggles on offense and slows the tempo down as much as anyone in the MAAC. The Stags want this to be a lower scoring contest.

I think this is an overreaction to Siena's first two games. My number here is 125.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies played a very high scoring game against Stanford in their last contest. Stanford got a big lead and Washington had to press and run in the second half. There were 107 points scored in that second half with all the fouls and pressing. That has inflated this line.

Washington is still a terrible offensive team. The Huskies take a lot of low percentage shots on a consistent basis. The Huskies are good on defense with their matchup zone. They have one weakness and that is on the defensive glass. Cal is a team that is very weak on the offensive boards.

Cal's Matt Bradley missed last game with an injury and he is considered a game time decision here. Bradley is the key to this offense. If he plays he'll be less than 100 percent. 

Cal plays at a very slow pace. The Bears don't want to get in a track meet here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This game played to a final total of 146 points last night and that was with a combined 22 free throws in the game.

These two teams have proven that they play fast against one another. Their last three meetings have all gone over this total.

I have this number at 148 so I have value here on the high side.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Navy Midshipmen are much better on offense this year. Cam Davis is one of the best players in the Patriot League. Navy's defense is still no better than average. 

Lehigh typically likes to run under Brett Reed. They played a couple high scoring contests in their first two games. Lehigh is one of the weakest defenses in the conference.

Three of the last four games between these two teams have gone over this total. Lehigh has been able to dictate the tempo in general against Navy. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* MTSU has continued to play very fast this year. MTSU has looked great defensively so far this year, but I think that is largely due to the competition they have played this season. MTSU has played the 325th toughest slate of offenses so far this year according to KenPom (very weak offenses). 

FIU is always a really fast paced team under Coach Ballard and that is the case again this year. They are much more efficient on offense than they have been in some seasons recently. They are also much weaker on defense since they lost their star shot blocker in the middle (Osaghae). 

Look for a lot of transition shots here from both teams. With even decent shooting this one should get past the posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wright State Raiders and Youngstown State Penguins put up 151 and 158 points last year in their two meetings. Wright State is really pushing the pace, and they are the favorite here and the more talented team.

Youngstown State is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Penguins have allowed 87, 81, 77, and 79 points in their last four contests. They are a good offense though. Youngstown State gets a lot of offensive rebounds and doesn't turn the ball over, and that helps make them a very efficient offense. 

Last year in the first meeting between these two teams there were 32 offensive rebounds. There should be a lot in this one too.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams met on Thursday and they'll play the second game of their back to back here on Friday afternoon. 

Yesterday's game finished 78-75 and was played at a blistering pace of 84 possessions. That is one of the fastest paced games you will see. 

Long Island's coach Derek Kellogg said in the offseason that he really wanted to up the tempo even more this season, and they have done just that so far this year. Long Island's average possession length was 16.1 seconds last year, and so far this year it is an extremely quick 14.1 seconds. 

St. Francis is one of the three or four fastest paced teams in the conference as well. 

Yesterday's game got to 153 points with some really bad shooting numbers. If the shooting numbers normalize this game has a chance to be quite a bit higher. There were very few free throws in the first game as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I very rarely bet a side or total and then switch and bet the other side in their next game, but I'll make an exception here. 

We had a nice 2-1 day on Thursday, but the one loss was the Sacred Heart/Merrimack under. It was never close. While Merrimack was an under machine last year, they played much much faster in the Thursday contest.

As I went back through the stats for that Thursday game, Merrimack really got out into transition at every opportunity. There was a lot of turnover at Merrimack in the offseason and it appears Coach Gallo has decided to get this team running more this season. 

Sacred Heart is weaker on defense this year than they were a year ago. They are going to be one of the worst teams defensively in this conference.

Based on the tempo of game one, this total is just too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky has been the single best "over" conference in college basketball. There is very little defense put up by most teams in the Big Sky Conference, at least by the weaker teams in the conference. 

Low totaled games in this conference have been very good over bets in the past decade. 

Northern Arizona and Idaho State are both better on offense than they are on defense. These two teams met twice in the regular season last year and they scored 138 and 160 points in regulation in those two contests.

This is a very low total for a game with two bad defenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors played 18 games in the conference last year. Only two of those games went over this posted total. Only one of them went over this total in regulation. Merrimack uses a zone press that slows the game down drastically. Joe Gallo is a tremendous defensive coach. 

I don't expect Sacred Heart to be able to figure this defense out. Sacred Heart was a solid offense last year, but they lost most of their key contributors. Sacred Heart scored 57 points in both meetings against Merrimack last year. I don't see how we could expect them to score very many here with a far weaker offensive team.

Sacred Heart's defense isn't very good, but Merrimack's offense is very in efficient. They lack guys who can create their own shot and get quality looks.

This should be a sloppy game and I expect it to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early start time. Mt. St. Mary's has played at the single slowest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. This is a team that looks to win low scoring games and control the pace.

Last year, the two meetings between these two teams finished at 137 points and 98 points. This one likely falls in between those two results.

St. Francis has had some very fast paced games so far this year, but that is primarily because of who they have played (Bryant twice for example). 

The early start is a positive as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles are playing a lot different without Markus Howard. Marquette is much slower paced team, and they are also less efficient on offense because they have gotten to the line a little less. 

UConn is one of the best defensive teams in this conference. The Huskies have a lot of length on the inside and will contest everything near the hoop. They allowed only 58 to USC. They allowed only 66 in regulation against Creighton. They allowed only 61 points against DePaul. 

I expect a slow paced game and both teams to do a good job contesting shots. My projected total is several points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*This line has moved down with some sharp money on the under coming in on Monday night. I would rate this as a 4 star play down to 139.5 and a 3 star play below that. Thanks and good luck* 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys beat Fresno State 78-74 yesterday. Both teams shot the ball fairly well, but the game was played to 72 possessions- a very quick pace. 

Wyoming's games this year have been great to over bettors. The Cowboys have seen 144 points or more scored in every game this year. In fact, they have had 149 points or more in every game except for one. 

Fresno State is fouling a lot and the Wyoming team gets to the line a lot and shoots a high percentage from the free throw line.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs beat Southern Illinois 73-55 yesterday. The pace was only 62 possessions and if anything the final score could have been a little bit lower than that 128 points. 

Southern Illinois is likely to try to slow down the tempo in this one. The Salukis don't want a shootout with Drake. Southern Illinois is due for regression on offense. They won't keep shooting 42% from 3 point range all season.

I think the oddsmakers didn't make a big enough adjustment here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game tips off at 9 am local time. Montana is playing at a slower pace this year. The Grizzlies are without their star (Pridgett) from last year. Montana is struggling to get a "go to" guy on offense this year. They have endured some long scoring droughts this year.

Northern Colorado is without their star (Radebaugh) from last year as well. The Bears are very reliant on the 3 point shot, and they are up against a Montana team that is one of the best at defending beyond the arc.

The early start time is extreme. These kids certainly aren't used to playing a game tipping at 9 am, and through the years the few extremely early start times have trended toward the under with poor shooting numbers.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The two slowest paced teams in the NBA so far this year meet in Phoenix on Sunday night. Phoenix has slowed down a lot with Chris Paul running the point. This is a team now that looks to run more halfcourt sets. The Suns are also clearly improved on the defensive end. Phoenix has been the second best defense in the NBA so far this year in six games. 

The LA Clippers can lock teams up on defense when they are fully engaged. I would expect the Clippers to be up for a game against a Phoenix team that has played well. The Clippers have multiple very good defenders on the perimeter to slow down the Suns outside shooters.

I think it has been hard for the books to adjust to the Suns new tempo and improved defense. They have started to adjust, but they haven't adjusted enough. Phoenix hasn't played a single game that finished with more than 216 points. All but one of their games have finished at 209 points or less.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Ed DeChellis talked in the preseason about this Navy team being far more experienced and more capable of scoring on the offensive end. That has been true so far this year. Navy has scored 73 points or more in four of their five games (they have scored exactly 78 in three of their games). 

Bucknell likes to push the pace. The Bison were only 12/30 from 2 point range yesterday against Navy, and they averaged only 0.93 points per possession. I would expect a little better from this offense.

Navy does play slowly, but they aren't as slow as in previous seasons. They no longer rank as one of the very slowest teams in the country- rather they are just fairly slow. 

Looking at the types of shots that were taken and the pace, yesterday's game should have been higher than it was, and it still got to 147 points.

With a move down today, this line is several points below my projections.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams have a history of putting up points in a big way when they square off. 

Since Hamilton took over as the Eastern Kentucky coach and they started using a full court press, the 3 meetings between these two teams have finished with 168 points, 162 points, and 178 points. 

Austin Peay has the scorers and ball handlers to beat this Eastern Kentucky press. Austin Peay is a weak team defensively.

Eastern Kentucky is very good at forcing the pace, and they have been able to do that against Austin Peay in recent matchups. 

Both teams have had some lower scoring games recently, which has given us a number that is several points too low here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Anytime you see a low total in a Big Sky Conference game you have to take a look at the over. After closer inspection, I will be playing the over here.

These two teams have gone over this total the last three times they have played each other. The lowest score in those games was 139 points. 

Northern Arizona is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. Idaho isn't much better on that end. 

Each of the last three games between these teams has played to 69 possessions or more. Games with less than 1 point per possession are very rare in the Big Sky where nearly no one plays any defense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams met on December 22nd and the final was 68-58 East Carolina. There were no large abnormalities as far as shooting percentages in that game.

Both of these teams are inefficient on the offensive end. Both of them scored between 0.93 and 0.94 points per possession in the conference last year. I expect similar numbers again this year.

Tulane's zone defense slows the game down. Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot and that should lead to a lot of empty possessions here. Some teams can take advantage of Tulane on the offensive glass, but East Carolina isn't a good offensive rebounding team.

At 67 possessions projected here and 0.96 and 0.95 points per possession we get a score projection of about 64-63.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Golden Grizzlies didn't play as fast in the non-conference slate as they typically do. Oakland has picked up their pace quite a bit of late though, and in the Horizon League I expect this Oakland team to move quickly.

Oakland has scored 72 points or more in six straight contests. They finally get a home game here, and they should be able to score quite a few here.

The Wright State Raiders are using only 14.8 seconds on an average offensive possession in their four games in the Horizon League thus far. Wright State wants to push the pace, and Oakland's very weak defense isn't likely to be able to slow them down. 

The two meetings between these teams last year finished at 165 and 154 points. Look for another high scoring game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas State has been a very good defensive team for the last several seasons. They like to slow the pace down. 

Louisiana has been a poor defensive team in recent seasons, and they love to speed the pace of game up in a big way.

It is always a pace war when these two teams meet. How have the games gone? The last six games between these two teams have finished at 137 points or lower.

Louisiana has the best defense they have had in many years. Theo Akwuba is a shot blocking a machine in the paint. Texas State is a team that doesn't shoot many 3's, and I think Akwuba's presence in the paint is going to make things difficult on Texas State.

Texas State has played 8 games this year, and none of them have finished higher than 138 points. 

With an improved Louisiana defense and two offenses that are weaker than in recent years, I'm taking the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are a completely different team than they were a year ago. New Orleans ran and played very little defense under Alvin Gentry. They are clearly improved on defense this year. They also rank dead last in tempo so far this year in the entire league. New Orelans has been a great under team so far this year, and I'm going to ride with the under another time here.

Oklahoma City hasn't played teams who play as slowly as the Pelicans so far this year. The Thunder have good defensive pieces on their roster. I would expect their offensive efficiency to be down a tick from a year ago.

There is a favorable referee crew for the under in this one as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies have developed an identity of being very tough on defense under Coach Hurley. This team doesn't let the opposition into the lane easily, and when they do get in the lane the opposition has a lot of height to go against in the UConn frontcourt.

The DePaul Blue Demons are better on defense than offense. This is a team that likes to play fast, but they turn the ball over a lot. That should be a problem against UConn. DePaul doesn't have many good outside shooters, and UConn's length inside should bother them.

UConn's offense is very inconsistent. They don't have many shooters and they rely heavily on offensive rebounding to score. 

UConn kept USC and even Creighton to very low scoring games. I think this game is totaled too high based on DePaul scoring a lot on weaker defenses in their first two games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The VMI Keydets play at an above average pace. They have proven over the last couple years that they are happy to play at a very fast pace when their opponent pushes the issue. 

Samford ranks 8th in the country in average possession length. This team is absolutely flying this season. Bucky McMillan spoke in the postseason about how fast he wanted the team to play, and they are doing just that. 

Last year, VMI and Samford played three times. Those games had 73, 77, and 77 possessions. The final totals in those games were 153, 162, and 174 points. 

Samford is playing faster than they did a year ago. Samford is fouling at an extremely high rate because they are using full court pressure. VMI is shooting better than 80% from the free throw line so far this year. 

I think this game plays to a pace of 77 or 78 possessions. That would require poor shooting to not get over the total.

I think both teams score a lot here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I think this total is very inflated. USC Upstate played Winthrop twice earlier this year, and Winthrop ranks first in the nation in tempo and they are the best offense in the Big South. Winthrop put up huge numbers against them, but no one else in the Big South can match Winthrop in that regard. 

High Point has played in several pretty high scoring games this year, but Tubby Smith clearly prefers a slower pace. High Point is likely to slow things down and get back to their defensive roots in conference play.

Last year, these two teams met three times. The final scores in those games were 70-62 (132), 62-54 (116), and 69-59 (128). None of these games even sniffed this posted total. While both teams may be a bit better on offense this year, there is no way a reasonable adjustment would be all the way to 150.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are a different team this year. New Orleans isn't playing as fast as possible as they did under Alvin Gentry. Stan Van Gundy has this team playing in the bottom ten in the NBA in pace of play. They have been much better on defense too, and that isn't a surprise since Van Gundy considers himself a defensive guy.

The Phoenix Suns are likely to play a little slower this year as well. At this stage of his career Chris Paul isn't a guy who tends to run the floor as fast as many of the point guards in the NBA. Expect Phoenix to slip some this year in terms of tempo, but they should improve on defense. They certainly have so far this year.

I think this line is off based on what these teams were last year compared to now.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Houston's defense is among the very best defenses in the country. Kelvin Sampson has really made the main theme of this Houston basketball program to be taking care of the basketball and winning with defense and toughness. Houston is playing even slower than they have the last two seasons this year, and they still rank sixth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Tulsa is a top 50 defense or so on an annual basis. Frank Haith's teams often struggle on the offensive end though. They'll likely mix in some zone and keep things at a slow pace here against Houston.

Last year's meetings between these two finished at 124 points and 119 points. I expect something similar here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Binghamton has seen one of their games go over this total in regulation this year and that was 144 points. Yesterday's game between these two finished at 141 points and that was with both teams shooting the ball well from long range and there was also a little fouling at the end of the contest.

I had this one projected at 137.5 so I have some room to the under. This is also an early start which in general has been helpful to the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are clearly a different team with Stan Van Gundy as their head coach as compared to Alvin Gentry. Van Gundy is more of a defensive-minded coach who isn't going to encourage running nearly as much as Gentry.

New Orleans ranked fourth in the NBA in tempo last year. They rank 24th through two games. It is a small sample size, but the Pelicans are averaging more than 3 possessions less per game than last year thus far.  I would expect New Orleans to improve defensively as well, and in their first two games they have done that.

The Spurs and Pelicans played high scoring games last year and that has led to a high total here. I think it is too high with the Pelicans being a different team.

The Spurs will likely finish in the middle of the pack in tempo again this year.  San Antonio's first two games being elevated from a totals perspective has given us a good number to go under here.

Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the NBA in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Hartford Hawks and New Hampshire Wildcats have a long history of playing low scoring games against each other. The last six meetings between these two have totaled the following amount of points: 121, 131, 113, 120, 113, and 130 (in overtime). All six of these games have stayed under this total by more than one possession. 

Hartford consistently slows the pace of the game down. New Hampshire's tempo looks quick on the season, but that is skewed because they played a Bryant team that is playing faster than anyone else in the country. 

Neither of these teams are good shooting the basketball. I think this total is set several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Draymond Green missed the Warriors first game and he is questionable here. Stephen Curry is excellent, but he isn't surrounded by many "scorers" or distributors on this Warriors team. They badly miss Klay Thompson. 

The Bucks were the best defense in the NBA last season. They do play fast, but they are good at locking teams down on defense.

Christmas Day unders have been tremendous in the past decade. This makes a lot of sense to me because the players are celebrating either right before or right after the game with their families. I think the Christmas under trend is a solid one.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Last year these two teams met twice and the final scores were 214 and 203. The Heat are a good defensive team, and they typically have not let the Pelicans get into their normal extremely fast paced type of game.

Christmas Day unders have been tremendous in the past decade. This makes a lot of sense to me because the players are celebrating either right before or right after the game with their families. I think the Christmas under trend is a solid one.

This total is set several points too high. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos beat the New Mexico Lobos 77-53 on Monday. I had the under in that one, and I will be on the under again here. 

Boise State's defense is much improved this year. The Broncos are going to be a tough team in the Mountain West this year. Boise State is 33rd in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. They have done a solid job against both BYU and Houston in big games earlier this year.

New Mexico is going to struggle to score this year. The Lobos lost their top few options offensively, and this is a team that really relies on second chance points. Boise State is an excellent defensive rebounding team and that makes them a tough matchup for this limited New Mexico offense.

New Mexico has slowed their pace down and I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks will look like a different team under Tom Thibodeau. Does that mean they will be better? Not necessarily, but Thibodeau is trying his best to turn this into a defensive-minded team. He also wants this team to play at a slow pace to start the season out. The Knicks played very slow in the preseason and had three of their four games in the preseason finish at 193 points or lower. 

Indiana is a strong defensive team. They will be one of the best in the Eastern Conference on that end again this year. The Pacers also prefer to play slowly. 

Last year, these two teams met three times. The final total in those games was 207, 177, and 204 points. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This one is played on a neutral floor in Las Vegas. Grand Canyon is working hard to slow the pace down this year. Bryce Drew's team is excellent on the defensive glass, and they defend well without fouling. 

Colorado just shot the ball really well last game against Washington, but Tad Boyle's team has a history of being inconsistent on the offensive end. The Buffaloes are very good on defense. They mix up their defenses and I think that will bother the Grand Canyon offense which doesn't have all that many great scoring options.

Early neutral site games have been great under bets in the long run, and I see some value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wagner Seahawks rank 313th in offensive possession length (how many seconds per possession). Wagner has consistently worked hard to slow teams down this year. They were even able to slow a game down against Bryant (who ranks first in the nation in tempo so far this year. 

Sacred Heart has a young team, and it appears Coach Anthony Latina has decided to slow down the tempo for his youngsters. They are 261st in the nation in average possession length so far this year. 

These two teams just played on Monday and the final was 74-46. Wagner was 11/22 from 3 point range and Sacred Heart was 2/23 from 3 point range. 

I would expect this game to be higher scoring than the game on Monday, but the pace of the game on Monday was just 64 possessions. If we assume this will be 67 possessions, a good amount faster, my numbers still can't get very close to this total.

At 67 possessions these teams would both have to average 1.04 points per possession on average to get this total to 139.5. These are two very poor offensive teams. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Niagara is a team I've isolated as due for positive regression on offense. The Purple Eagles did shoot the ball much better in their last game against Fairfield. Niagara was really efficient offensively last year, and they return most of their main guys. There isn't any reason to expect anything other than a solid offense here yet again. 

On the other end of the floor, Niagara is really bad. They were 310th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They have have played four games against bad offenses this year, and their defensive stats are skewed right now.

Albany shot the ball horribly in their last game, and their season stats are very poor offensively. The Great Danes put up 84 points in an 84-80 win over Niagara last year, and they should be able to score on Niagara quite a bit again this year.

This total is too low based on recent scores from these two teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico Lobos dialed back the tempo a bit so far this year. Paul Weir said the team fouled too much in exhibitions leading up to the season and he had to have the team turn it down to 80 instead of 100. New Mexico then played a much slower than expected pace against Rice in their only game against a Division One opponent so far this year.

New Mexico should be far worse on offense than they were a year ago. The Lobos will badly miss Vance Jackson, JaQuan Lyle, and Zane Martin. The Lobos have more length on the inside than they have had in some previous seasons, and their defense should at least be decent.

Boise State is far better defensively this year than they were a year ago. The Broncos are one of the 15 tallest teams in the country. They are always excellent on the defensive boards which is a big deal here. 

There is a good chance Boise State wins this game by a decent margin, and if that is the case I see them slowing the pace down even more late in the game.

Take the under here. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Bryant Bulldogs have played eight games, and only two of them have stayed under 156 points (153 and 136). Bryant has gotten to 169 points or more in four of their games this year. This team ranks third in the nation in tempo. They are going to push at every opportunity.

UMass is expected to be much better on offense with some of the newcomers they brought in. The Minutemen have been very good on offense through three games. They have scored 94, 75, and 85 points in those three games. Bryant is the fastest paced team UMass has played yet.

The tempo should clearly be here. There is always a chance of bad shooting, but this game is far off my projected number for this game.

Take the over. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Over* I took the over when these two teams met on Friday night and cashed. I'll be on the over again here. The number has been adjusted up some, so this is a slightly smaller play. Still, I think there is value on the over.

Portland State plays at an extremely fast pace every single year under Coach Peery. They rank 7th in the nation in overall tempo so far this year. The Vikings have shot the ball horribly so far this year. Portland State is shooting 21% from long range. They have an effective field goal percentage of only 38.1% (324th in the country). They have still had two of their three games against division one opponents finish at 159 points or more. They should start shooting the ball better, but their defense has serious problems.

Weber State has a much improved offense this year. The Wildcats have many more scoring options than they had last year. Weber State torched this Portland State press on Friday, and they should get a lot of open looks again here. 

These two have a history of playing high scoring matchups against each other.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Radford Highlanders lost all kinds of offensive talent from last year. Radford is going to struggle to score on nearly everyone they play this year. This is a team though that does play defense, and they know how to slow the game down. Radford should play in a lot of low scoring contests this year.

Vanderbilt is much improved on defense. Saban Lee was good offensively for this team last year, but he was a weak defender. They have upgraded on the defensive end, but are somewhat weaker on offense. Vanderbilt has also drastically slowed their tempo this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Baylor Bears are playing more than two seconds per possession quicker than they did a year ago. Kansas State is better on offense and worse on defense than they were a year ago. Even before those two changes, Baylor and Kansas State played games last year that finished with 140 and 151 total points.

Baylor has scored at least 82 points in each of their first four games. Kansas State gave up 81 points at home to Fort Hays St in a loss. They also gave up 80 to Drake and 75 to Wisconsin Milwaukee. Baylor should be able to score a lot of points here.

Kansas State is 91st in effective field goal percentage offense this year. They were 270th last year. They will drop during the season, but they do appear to be better on offense this year.

This total is set as if it were a game played last year. These are two different teams this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Furman Paladins beat the Winthrop Eagles 80-73 at home last year. Both of these teams are playing significantly faster than they did a year ago. In fact, Winthrop is playing at the single fastest pace on offense of any team in the country so far this year. 

Furman is playing 1.5 seconds per possession quicker so far this year than they did a year ago. The Paladins are a really efficient offense with multiple elite scoring options on the floor at all times.

Both of these teams shoot the ball well and the pace should be there.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* South Alabama's defense is really bad. They are 317th out of 324 teams who have played so far this year in effective field goal percentage defense. It isn't because they have played a bunch of good offenses either. Southern Miss put up 75 points on this team, and the Golden Eagles have major offensive woes. Flagler put up 81 points on South Alabama. 

Alabama A&M impressed on offense in their first game against Samford. This isn't a team that is going to end up being all that good on offense though. Still, they put up 79 points against this South Alabama defense last year.

South Alabama is good at pushing the pace. They are clearly the more polished offense. They should lead in this game, and they should get to the line a bunch.

This one was 89-79 in a very fast paced game last year.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wright State has a lot more length and physicality in the frontcourt this year. When he was asked before the year what would be the most different about this year's Wright State team Coach Scott Nagy said they would be much better on defense thanks to their frontcourt. 

Wright State still plays relatively quickly, but they are better on defense than on offense. 

Detroit has slowed their pace down a bit from a couple years ago. This Detroit team isn't great on defense by any means, but they are certainly improving on that end. 

I had this game totaled at 142, so I see value on the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This isn't the type of bet I would usually make betting a high over in a neutral court contest. Iowa and Gonzaga aren't your typical teams though. These are the top two offenses in the country. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 in the country in tempo as well.

Luka Garza is nearly unstoppable, and Gonzaga definitely doesn't have anyone who can stop him. The Hawkeyes have multiple very good outside shooters.

Gonzaga can push in transition with Suggs and the athletic frontcourt players as well as anyone in the country. 

Iowa used a full court press quite a bit in their last game, and I expect that to show up here again. The Hawkeyes halfcourt defense is terrible, and Gonzaga will expose them. 

Gonzaga's defense was a question mark to Coach Few before the year. They'll have trouble here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Portland State Vikings had a low scoring game against Washington State last game. I think that gives us a good chance to get a solid number to play the over here. This total is the same as the Portland State game against Washington State game was. Washington State is an under team, and Weber State has a far weaker defense.

Weber State picked up a lot of solid junior college transfers in the offseason. They had an ugly shooting performance against Boise State last game, but Boise State will make a lot of offenses look bad this year. 

The lowest scoring game in the last ten meetings between these two is a total of 151 points. This posted total has been set lower than that. 

Portland State will continue pressing and running at every opportunity and they will have a lot of high scoring games this year. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks have underachieved on defense according to my expectations this year. They have overachieved versus my expectations on offense. Oregon losing Pritchard has to hurt their offense on the whole. On the defensive side, Oregon should be about where they were a year ago. 

San Francisco has been really impressive this season so far. The Dons defense has impressed me in their wins over Nevada and Virginia. San Francisco should be competitive here.

Both of these teams are good on the defensive glass and that should limit second chance scoring. This line is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* These teams met on November 30th at Mercer. The final score was 86-69 and the game was played to a blistering fast pace of 79 possessions. I don't see any reasons to expect anything different here.

Mercer uses traps and aggressive defense which keeps the opposition moving. Georgia State ranks among the 25 fastest teams in the country in terms of pace. They will be more than happy to run. 

Mercer is a much better shooting team this year with Ross Cummings on the roster. The Bears have scored 77 points or more in every game this season. 

I expect both offenses to look good here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange sped up a bit last year from the year before. They have sped up a lot more this season from last year. They have a lot more speed in the backcourt and they have more options as 3 point shooters on the outside also. This Orange team is likely to keep running through the season.

Northeastern played two games against UMass and they ran in both of those games. While they likely won't play all that fast through the year, I don't think they can stall here too much because they are likely to be losing throughout.

Take the over here. 

*5 Star CBB Hidden GEM TOP Total of the WEEK* These two teams played on Tuesday and the final score was 91-86 St. Francis. That game was played to a ridiculous fast pace of 82 possessions. If they play at that pace again, both teams could average a very weak 0.94 points per possession and this one would go over the total. This game might be a bit slower, but these are two weak defenses. 

It was no fluke that there was a really high scoring game between these two. The last two meetings before yesterday for these two teams were 169 points and 164 points.

I don't know what would make the oddsmakers set such a low total on a game like this. These teams have proven that they play at a track meet pace when they face off against each other. 

My numbers make this game quite a bit higher than this. 

Take the over. TOP Rated play. 

*4 Star Play Over* Travis Ford has picked up the pace in a big way for this St. Louis team. I'm happy to see them push the gas pedal down. This is a team that is at their best when they are in transition and getting to the basket and drawing fouls. They should be able to do that against an Indiana State team who fouls a lot and can struggle in transition defense.

Indiana State played a high scoring game against Purdue (typically a lower scoring team). The Sycamores played very fast in that game. Indiana State has a very good guard in Tyreke Key. They should be able to get to the line too against a St. Louis defense that is very aggressive.

The tempo of this game should be quick enough to get this one past the posted total unless the shooting numbers are very poor.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gabe Watson was the top scorer for Southern Miss last year and he left the team in the offseason. Jay Ladner's team is playing significantly slower this year than it did last year (and they were already slow last year). It appears he is trying to hide their poor offense and lean on the defense to keep them in games.

Lamar lacks the outside shooting to make Southern Miss pay for sagging back in the paint and trying to keep people away from the rim. Lamar is shooting less than 25% from 3 point range on the season. 

Lamar's defense does a good job forcing a lot of turnovers and wasted trips down the floor. Southern Miss is very prone to those problems.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wisconsin played two games all of last year (31 games) with a tempo of 70 possessions or more. In their five games so far this year, three of them have been 70 possessions or more. Wisconsin is using only 16.6 seconds on average of the shot clock compared to 19.9 seconds of the shot clock last year. The Badgers will likely slow back down a bit, but this total is priced as if they are playing as slow or even slower than last year.

Loyola (Chicago) is a good offensive team. They added a very good offensive transfer from Oakland, Braden Norris. They now have a plethora of good outside shooters. The Ramblers have one big weakness as a team and that is defending the 3 point line. 

Wisconsin has been an above average team for many years in a row from beyond the arc. The Badgers should be able to get a lot of open looks from three in this one.

This number has dropped enough that I see value on the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns have improved a lot on defense this year. Why? The main reason is Theo Akwuba on the inside. The 6'11 big man is a good defensive rebounder and a guy who can swat a lot of shots in the paint. Louisiana didn't have anyone like him last year and opponents frequently got to the hoop against this team.

New Orleans takes far too many midrange jumpers for my liking. New Orleans also turns the ball over a bunch. Expect a lot of wasted possessions from them. They will improve on defense this year since their frontcourt is healthier than it was last year.

These two teams already played this year. It was a 66-63 final. This one shouldn't be that low since the shooting numbers were bad in that one, but I expect a bunch of turnovers again and I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Last year when these two teams met the final total was 128 points. Clemson is much better on defense this year than they were a year ago. The Tigers rank second behind only Texas Tech in defensive efficiency so far this year. They have completely shut down Mississippi State, Maryland, and Alabama already this season.

Virginia Tech ranks as one of the 25 slowest paced teams in the country. The Hokies are a top 50 defense in the country as well. They have scored 64 points or less in regulation in three of their last four games. Offensively, this is a team that can go through some slumps.

Clemson's offense has struggled year after year under head coach Brad Brownell. Clemson has been inefficient every single season, and I would expect the same this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Baptist Huskies lost their top three offensive players from a year ago. Houston Baptist was awful on defense last year and pretty good on offense. They are much weaker on offense this year. Yes, they are still bad on defense. However, Houston Baptist is clearly playing slower than last year. They are using more than a second per possession more on average already this year.

Rice also lost a bunch of their outside shooters from last year. The Owls are improved on the defensive end, but they are weaker on offense this season.

This isn't a game I'm excited to bet the under in, because Houston Baptist unders are tough to take. Still, it is one where I am off the market by enough that I have to play the under here because I see enough value.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The George Washington Colonials averaged 18.9 seconds per possession last year. They are playing much faster this year. George Washington is averaging only 14.9 seconds per possession so far this season. George Washington's games have averaged 154 points so far this year. They have played only one game this year that has stayed under this posted total. 

William & Mary has played only one game this year. The Tribe lost a 82-78 decision against Old Dominion. Old Dominion is a slow paced team with a solid defense. William & Mary is loaded with good shooters, and this is an efficient offense every year. They haven't finished outside the top 31 in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense since 2012. At the same time, they aren't very good on the defensive end.

Look for George Washington to push the pace here, and this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Portland State isn't a team I am looking to take unders with very often, but this number is too high from the oddsmakers when they are up against Washington State.

Kyle Smith's Washington State team is far better on defense than offense. The Cougars are also going to look to slow the game down. Portland State's single biggest weapon on offense is offensive rebounding. Washington State has been a good defensive rebounding team the last couple seasons. 

I made this number quite a few points lower than this, but I'm going to keep this as a 3 star rated play because Portland State games can have a lot of variance with their pressure style and a lot of fouls.

Take the under.