Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams met a couple weeks ago and the final score was 86-78. I'm not expecting that kind of shootout here, but I do think this total is set too low.

Loyola Maryland and Holy Cross are the two worst teams in terms of defensive efficiency this season. Holy Cross is 361st in the nation (out of 362 teams) in defensive efficiency overall. These are two really bad defenses. A total set this low is usually for a game with at least one very good defense. 

Holy Cross has sped up their tempo. They are up to third in the Patriot League in overall pace. 

Loyola's biggest offensive problem is turnovers, but Holy Cross very rarely forces turnovers.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Evansville Purple Aces got back their star offensive player Ben Humrichous back in the lineup after an extended absence. He came back last game, and the offense immediately looked much better. They won 77-60 against UIC. 

Evansville beat Valparaiso 78-75 in the first meeting between these two. These are two of the faster paced teams in the MVC. 

Valpo has been struggling badly defensively of late, but their offense is making strides. Valpo has allowed at least 75 points in five straight games. They have put up 69 points or more in all five of those games as well though. 

Earlier this year with Humrichous playing, Evansville won 91-89 over N Iowa and they scored 78 at Missouri State in a fast paced game.

I think the pace will be pretty quick here, and both teams haven't been very good at getting defensive rebounds or defending without fouling in the conference.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns defense has not impressed me this season. Texas is second to last in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. They have already given up 84 points to BYU, 78 against Texas Tech, and even 77 against a bad UCF offense. The Longhorns have given up a bunch of second chance points of late.

TCU is known for quick steals and scores in transition. Texas isn't taking care of the ball very well, and they don't get back in transition well at all. 

In Disu and Mitchell, Texas has a couple very good frontcourt players. TCU hasn't protected the paint well this year, and I think that could be a problem here.

This spread is set a fouling range of 4-5 points. Both teams shoot it well from the line too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters still have the best defense in the Big West, and it isn't even close. They are allowing just 0.899 points per possession in the Big West. The Anteaters are 7th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. UC Irvine has a defensive minded coach in Russell Turner. 

Cal Poly is very weak on offense. The Mustangs are 349th in the country in offensive efficiency. They take far too many contest jump shots, and they aren't getting many second chances on offenses.

UC Irvine's offense has struggled a lot with Cal Poly's defense the last few years. Cal Poly has been far better on defense at home than on the road. Interestingly, UC Irvine has been much better on defense on the road. UC Irvine is giving up just 0.845 points per possession on the road in conference play.

The under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Western Illinois Leathernecks have been excellent on defense all season. Chad Boudreau has done a tremendous job in his first year with this team. He made it a priority to fix their defensive woes, and they have done just that in year one. It has helped a lot to have an elite shot blocker on the inside. Drew Cisse is a game changer with his length and athleticism for Western Illinois.

Lindenwood has played to the pace of their opponent throughout the season. They played a slow paced game at Western Illinois (W Illinois won 68-57). The pace should once again stay in the 62 or 63 range for this one. 

Lindenwood is 352nd in offensive efficiency in the country. Western Illinois is weak on offense too. The Leathernecks are 302nd in offensive efficiency in the country.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts have played 19 games against Division One opponents. All 19 of their games have stayed under this total. Vermont has been great on defense this year, and they do a really good job controlling the pace. Vermont doesn't foul much at all, and opponents don't get many second chance points on them. They are top 25 in the country in both of these stats.

Albany is a high scoring team that plays quickly. The Great Danes rely heavily on forcing turnovers and getting out in transition. Vermont is only turning the ball over on 11.7% of their offensive possessions in the conference. The Catamounts are very good in transition defense. They aren't going for offensive rebounds, they are getting back on defense. 

Vermont is a big favorite here, and I think they get the tempo they want. They just slowed down a very fast paced Bryant team last game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Loyola Maryland Greyhounds aren't good, but their offense has gotten better and better through the season. They are first in the Patriot League in shot selection. Loyola's biggest problem on offense is turnovers, but Bucknell doesn't force many turnovers at all. Loyola has shot 37.4% from the 3 point line in conference play.

Bucknell is torching the nets shooting 39.2% from 3 point range in conference action. Loyola is dead last in the league in 3 point defense allowing a ridiculous 41.1% from 3 point range in the conference. Bucknell has been getting some offensive rebounds and second chance points of late as well.

This total is set very low for a game played between two poor defenses. The tempo will be slow, but I still like the over.

Loyola has been far better on offense away from home this year, and their defense has been much worse on the road as well. Bucknell has been efficient on offense at home.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northwestern Wildcats defense has been very weak this year. This was a defensive minded team last year, but they are far better on offense this year and much worse on defense. 

Northwestern is 13th out of 14 in the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage defense. They are dead last in fouls committed in the league. They are second to last in defensive rebounding percentage. That's particularly important here when they are up against Zach Edey and the Purdue offense that is first in free throws attempted and first in offensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten.

Purdue is averaging a ridiculous 1.36 points per possession at home in conference play. Northwestern has allowed 1.1 points per possession or more in five of their last seven games.

Northwestern is first in turnover percentage on offense in the Big Ten. They take care of the ball and get some pretty good shots. They should be playing from behind which will keep the pace moving here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats have played some shutdown defense against better competition this year. In their games against Top 100 opponents, they have allowed just 0.924 points per possession. Kansas State is much better at home, and I think Oklahoma will have a hard time getting open looks here. 

McNair is a good shot blocker for Kansas State, and Oklahoma is unlikely to have as much success near the hoop as they normally do. Oklahoma has slowed their pace in the Big 12, and Kansas State has played much slower this year. 

Kansas State's offense is 10th in efficiency in the Big 12. They take too many contested mid range jumpers.

Both teams are much better on defense than they are on offense. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both the Timberwolves and the Thunder rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season and for the last ten games. These two teams are winning with their defenses. 

Both of these teams are coming off ugly losses. Detroit beat OKC in a stunner on Sunday. Minnesota lost to the Spurs on Saturday. 

These teams are tied at the top of the Northwest Division. This games means a lot to both teams. In the NBA, the long term trends strongly suggest that more important games where both teams are highly motivated leads to more unders.

In the last five times these two teams have played each other- four of those games have stayed under the total. 

The intensity should be high here, and I like this one to stay under the total. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates have really changed the way they play a lot in recent weeks. East Carolina is 12th out of 14 teams in the American Athletic Conference in tempo. They are third in defensive efficiency in the conference. East Carolina started the season poorly on defense, but defensive minded Coach Mike Schwartz has helped turn this team around.

Temple has played to the pace of their opponent through the season. Temple is also dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. They were held to just 62 points in a very slow paced game against E Carolina a few weeks ago. 

Though this is a league where there are often a lot of fouls called, these two teams are last and second to last in FTA/FGA. I think they will play at a slow pace here and unless the ref crew really wants to turn this into a ref show, I don't expect a ton of whistles.

The first game was 63 possessions with average or slightly above average shooting numbers. It only hit 135 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Quinnipiac Bobcats are first in the MAAC in tempo. The Fairfield Stags are second in the MAAC in average possession length too, so they want to run whenever they can. The tempo in this game should be extremely quick. 

Quinnipiac's games in the league have averaged 73.1 possessions. With Fairfield being so quick, I think this game will play out even faster than that. The Bobcats have played three games in their last six that have played to a pace of 78 possessions or more. 

Fairfield is first in the MAAC in offensive efficiency. The Stags have excellent shooters all over the floor. The Stags defense is weak though, and they give up far too many offensive rebounds. Quinnipiac should get plenty of second chance points here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen are excellent on the offensive glass. They also get to the free throw line a bunch. 

St. Louis is also very good at getting to the line. St. Louis is bottom 50 in the country in defensive efficiency this year. They have been giving up points in bunches even against teams who don't push the pace. UMass does play very quickly.

Both teams foul a lot and that should help the over quite a bit here.

The matchups last year flew over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Portland Pilots aren't playing any defense of late. Portland has allowed 92 points or more in four of their last five games. They have allowed at least 85 points in each of their last five games. 

San Francisco has been playing great on offense. The Dons have a very good big guy in Mogbo, and they have shooters around him. The Dons are playing much quicker in conference action. They should put up a big number.

Portland has shot the ball better at home, and I think they'll play pretty quickly too especially once they are down on the scoreboard.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights were never very good offensively in the AAC. Now, they have had to step up in class to the Big 12. The offense has been the worst in the Big 12, and it hasn't been very close.

UCF is still playing great defense and forcing a lot of turnovers though. Cincinnati's offense is 11th in the Big 12, and the Bearcats lack a go to guy in the paint. 

Cincinnati has been excellent on defense, and they have been slowing their pace down of late.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The App State Mountaineers and James Madison Dukes have played three times total last year and earlier this year. Those 3 games finished with 133 points, 120, and 114 points. 

App State is 9th (out of 362 teams) in effective field goal percentage defense. James Madison is 39th. 

App State has done a solid job keeping the tempo under control when these two play, and the defenses are better than the offenses. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs are excellent when it comes to forcing turnovers and getting out in transition and scoring very quickly. The single biggest weakness of the ETSU defense is their transition defense. Samford should get a lot of quick looks in the open floor in this game.

East Tennessee State has been able to pile up the points on some occasions this year, and I think they can get to the free throw line here with Samford's aggressive full court pressure leading to quite a few fouls.

Samford will dictate the pace.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Victor Hart and Andre Curbelo are once again questionable for this game for Southern Miss. They are two of the three best scorers on the Southern Miss. They have missed multiple games in a row with injuries. If they play they may be limited. 

Southern Miss isn't likely to want to play Marshall's fast paced game here. Marshall is fast paced, but their offense isn't very efficient. In fact, their defense is quite a bit better than their offense this season. 

I had this one at 145.5. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles are the best team in the OVC. This league isn't nearly as good as it was a few years ago after both Belmont and Murray State left the league.

Morehead State plays their style of basketball. They slow the game down and win with defense and tenacity. Western Illinois under first year Coach Chad Boudreau has played a similar style. 

Western Illinois and Morehead State both play the drop style defense and both of them have an excellent shot blocker in the interior. I think both teams will have a hard time finding open looks in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces have been inept on offense without leading scorer Ben Humrichous. He is questionable to play here. If he does play, he is likely to be at far less than 100% due to his knee injury. Evansville is easily last in the MVC in offensive efficiency.

Illinois State has done a good job on defense this year, and the RedBirds are consistent in slowing the pace of the game down. I think they are the better team here, and I expect them to turn this into a halfcourt game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Poly Mustangs are 349th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Cal Poly is averaging just 0.901 points per possession in the Big West Conference. Cal Poly shoots it poorly and doesn't get to the line much or get offensive rebounds. Cal Poly is 335th in average possession length on offense, so they are definitely trying to slow the pace down drastically.

Cal State Fullerton is the better team here, but they are also poor on offense and play slowly. The Titans are 322nd in average possession length. They are 280th in offensive efficiency in the country. Fullerton also has an above average defense. Their weakness is fouling too much, but Cal Poly isn't a team that gets to the line much at all normally.

A slow pace here and I think this should be a sloppy game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Washington Eagles are first in the Big Sky in average possession length (quickest pace). Northern Colorado is second. This should be a track meet. 

Northern Colorado hasn't had a game with a final combined score of anything lower than 151 points in their last eight games. Six of the eight games have finished with 162 points or more. Now, they take on an Eastern Washington team that is 7th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. Eastern Washington puts up a ton of 3 point shots, and Northern Colorado is 352nd in the nation in 3 point defense. 

Northern Colorado is averaging 1.231 point per possession in the Big Sky Conference. They have a very underrated big guy in Wisne. 

Eastern Washington is averaging 85.7 points per game in their last seven games. Northern Colorado is averaging 88.7 points per game in their last seven games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have slowed their tempo down to a crawl in conference play. North Texas is taking an astounding 22.4 seconds of the 30 shot clock on average to put up a shot. No one else in the country is playing even as close to that slowly in conference play. The Mean Green are also 5th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. That has led to them giving up 62, 56, 51, 59, and 56 points in their five AAC contests.

SMU has played to the pace of their opponent this year. They played very slow games against Charlotte and Dayton. The Mustangs are second in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Importantly, they are first in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. North Texas takes a bunch of 3's and they should be tough looks in this game.

The pace should be extremely slow here (likely in the 50's) and I like this one to stay under the total.

*4 Star Play Over* The San Jose State Spartans have turned into a great over team this year. San Jose State has scored 1.10 points per possession or higher in seven of their last eight games. The Spartans have also allowed at least 1.134 points per possession (very bad) in each of their last seven games. They don't play very fast, but they are playing clearly faster than they did last year.

New Mexico is pushing the pace to the extreme this year with House leading the way at point guard. The Lobos are 5th in the nation in tempo. They'll push the pace again in this one. They have only had two games with a pace of under 70 the entire season. New Mexico is being very aggressive taking the ball to the basket, and San Jose State doesn't defend the paint well. 

San Jose State shoots it well from three point range, and of late New Mexico has been having some issues with giving up a lot of open shots from long range. That should catch up to them at some point.

A fast pace and solid efficiency.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles have been playing shorthanded of late. Both Victor Hart (knee injury) and Andre Curbelo (concussion) have missed the last three games for them. Both of those guys are considered game time decisions for this game as well. If one or both play, they will likely be limited at least a bit too. These are two of the top four scorers on the team. Without these two Southern Miss has scored 56, 69, and 66 points in the three contests. 

Coastal Carolina ranks dead last in offensive efficiency in the Sun Belt. The Chanticleers should have trouble here against a good Southern Miss defense. Southern Miss defends inside the 3 point line very well, and Coastal Carolina has been very poor from long range this season. 

Even if the pace is relatively quick, I don't the efficiency stats will be very good here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Richmond Spiders have been the best defense in the Atlantic 10 so far this year. Richmond is consistently holding opponents to one shot. The Spiders are excellent at defending without fouling. They are 21st in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Richmond slows the pace down too. The Spiders are 266th in the nation in tempo. In their last eight games, Richmond hasn't had a game higher than 147 points. Only one game in that span has topped 138 points. 

George Washington has slowed their pace some in the conference action. They are using about 1.4 seconds per possession more (a fairly big difference). The Colonials rely pretty heavily on both shooting it well from 3 and getting to the line and Richmond is great at defending the three and they don't foul much at all. George Washington is often taken advantage of because of their poor defensive rebounding, but Richmond is bottom ten in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Golden Gophers have been good offensively this year. They are 35th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. Shot Quality rates them 16th best in the country in shot selection on the season. They are second in Big Ten conference play in shot selection. Minnesota has a star in Dawson Garcia. Garcia can do work in the paint where the Wisconsin Badgers have no shot blockers. Wisconsin is 333rd in the country in near proximity defense.

The Wisconsin Badgers offense has been a well oiled machine this season. Wisconsin is 5th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Badgers are balanced and can score from many different places. This Wisconsin team is far different than any Badgers team we have seen in recent memory. They are much better on offense than defense. They have scored 83 points or more in three of their last five games. 

I think both teams can be efficient on offense in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense has been very weak this year, and on the road they have been particularly bad. They are averaging less than 0.88 points per possession on the road. 

New Mexico State prefers to play at a slow pace. They have struggled with fouls at times, but I think a couple things will help them here. First, MTSU isn't good at getting to the line and when they do they are dead last in FT shooting percentage on the road in the entire country. Second, NM State has committed far fewer fouls per game when playing at home.

The MTSU defense is pretty good, and New Mexico State lacks elite scorers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bellarmine was 104th in effective FG percentage offense last year. They are 287th so far this year. The Knights have had a lot of injuries, and they are still playing shorthanded. Bellarmine doesn't have the offensive talent they have had in recent seasons. They are playing at the 329th pace of play in the country (very slow). 

Eastern Kentucky is playing two seconds per possession slower in conference play than they did a year ago. They are pressing full court far less than they did a year ago. Eastern Kentucky is first in the league in defensive efficiency. I think they'll make it tough on Bellarmine's offense here.

Last year's games finished 143 and 136 points total with very slow paces of 61 and 59 possessions. Both teams are worse offensively this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Evansville Purple Aces have a key offensive piece back in the fold now that Ben Humrichous is back from injury. He has the highest offensive rating on the team. Evansville is the second fastest paced team in the MVC. They should be pushing the pace quite a bit here as they play from behind.

Drake is excellent offensively, and they have a history of tearing up this Evansville defense. They put up 96 points on Evansville last year. This Evansville team is dead last in the MVC in defensive efficiency. I don't think they'll have answers for Devries and company in this game either.

Evansville has allowed 86 points or more in three of their last four road games. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers defense has been fantastic all season. Appalachian State are 10th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 36th in defensive efficiency. It's no fluke either- they are 22nd in shot selection allowed this year. They are contesting shots very well.

Appalachian State is 248th in the nation in tempo too, and they have been playing quite a few low scoring games.

Coastal Carolina has slowed down their tempo since the coaching change in the middle of the season. The Chanticleers are no longer looking to push the tempo to the extreme. The Chanticleers offense is one of the worst in the Sun Belt. They are averaging just 0.954 points per possession.

These two teams met recently and App State wont 70-45. I think Coastal struggles to score again here. I had this total in the 130's.

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* I've been really impressed by the job Chad Boudreau has done in his first year as coach at Western Illinois. Boudreau has this Western Illinois team controlling the pace of the game (playing slowly) and they are playing some excellent defense. They have the big Drew Cisse on the inside blocking shots and keeping opponents out of the lane. On offense, they are just 292nd in offensive efficiency.

Tennessee State has played to the pace of their opponent this year. The Tigers rely heavily on getting to the foul line to score, and Western Illinois has been great at defending without fouling. The Tigers do force quite a few turnovers, so I expect to see wasted possessions at times from Western Illinois.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* These teams are number one and number two in the Atlantic 10 in tempo. The pace should absolutely be there in this one.

Fordham is bottom 15 in the country in fouls committed. Their games have gotten extremely foul heavy late in the games. Loyola just got 31 FT attempts against UMass last game. The Ramblers have an advantage from 3 here, and they should get some second chance points against a Fordham weak interior rebounding unit.

Fordham is great at forcing turnovers and turning those into quick points. That's an area where Loyola has struggled throughout the season. The Rams are top 40 in the nation in getting to the line themselves.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Nebraska Omaha Mavericks have had some wild results in their home games this year. Their home games have been much higher scoring than their road contests;. The biggest reason for this is the free throw rate. Omaha has a FTA/FGA at home of an incredible 60.2. 

The thing that makes this such an interesting matchup is UMKC is constantly a team that gets in foul trouble. They committed the most fouls in the Summit League last year. UMKC is likely to send Omaha to the line a lot here.

UMKC has an improved offense this year compared to a year ago. Omaha is still very weak on offense. 

The Summit League has been great to over bettors in the long haul.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco offense has been on fire of late. San Francisco started the season playing slowly and winning a bunch of lower scoring games with their defense. The Dons have scored 91 points or more in four of their last seven games. They have picked up their pace in a big way during that time. 

Loyola Marymount is playing only their second true road game of the year. The Lions are first in the WCC in FTA/FGA in conference play. San Francisco's weakness on defense is fouling too much. Loyola should be able to get to the line and they shoot 73.2% from the stripe.

Recent weighting makes this number too low based on the San Francisco offensive success of late.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles are very good at controlling the pace of the game. While UT Martin wants to run, they have been slowed down by a few teams this year. The past head to head matchups between these two teams tell a story too.

With the current coaching staff at UT Martin (Head Coach Ridder)- the four matchups have gone like this- 138 points, 128 points, 121 points, and 130 points. None of those games have come close to this posted total.

Morehead State is 343rd in the country in average possession length on offense. With the better team playing at that pace it takes some very good shooting to get to this high of a number.

UT Martin isn't great defensively, but they do well defending without fouling and they get defensive rebounds at a high rate too.

Morehead State is the best defense in the OVC.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons have shot the ball well of late, but at its core this Drexel team is all about their defense. Drexel is 17th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Dragons are great at contesting jump shots.

Monmouth has improved quite a bit this year, and it has been largely thanks to their defense playing much better. They have a couple good shot blockers down low. Monmouth has consistently played to the pace of their opponent. Drexel is one of the slowest teams in the conference. 

Drexel held Monmouth to 35 points in their game at home against them last year. I'm certainly not predicting that to happen here, but I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Bucknell Bison have picked up their pace some of late. Bucknell is also third in the Patriot League in offensive efficiency. This Bucknell has been shooting it well from three point range and the free throw line. 

Boston University has faced a lot of good defenses this year, and they have faced a terrible slate of opposing offenses. The Terriers has faced the absolute slowest paced teams in the league thus far. They are a relatively slow paced team, but they play to the pace of the opponent quite a bit. Bucknell is terrible at defending the three point line, and Boston puts up a lot of shots from long range.

I weight recent pace and efficiencies quite heavily this time of the year. If you look at recent outcomes, this total is set too low.  

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks have been much better on defense this year. They rank 22nd in the country in shot selection allowed. South Carolina was 290th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 61st so far this season. 

South Carolina is 343rd in the nation in tempo. The Gamecocks rely heavily on putting up a bunch of three point jumpers. Georgia is 30th in the country in three point field goal defense. They have a lot of length that should bother South Carolina's offense.

The Georgia offense has played pretty fast, but they have played a lot of fast paced opponents. This game should be different. Georgia isn't efficient on offense either.

South Carolina is using 20.5 seconds on average per possession in the SEC (very slow). The Gamecocks should control the tempo here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones are number two in the nation in defensive efficiency. Iowa State is allowing less than 0.9 points per possession. The Cyclones played somewhat quick in the non-conference, but they did this last year before slowing down a lot in conference play. They have done the same thing so far this season too. They are playing 2.5 seconds per possession slower in their Big 12 games.

BYU's defense is much improved from last year. BYU was 52nd in the country in defensive efficiency last year. They are up to number 7 so far this year. BYU is pretty quick at 124th quickest in tempo in the country, but they very rarely get to the free throw line and their offense hasn't been as efficient as their defense.

This total has been bumped up several points. I will side with the under with two top ten defensive teams in the country.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Even in today's NBA, this is a very high total. The Indiana Pacers are without star Tyrese Haliburton and they haven't looked like the same team without him. With Haliburton, the Pacers are first in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the season. In the last three games without him, they have been a bottom ten team in the NBA in efficiency on offense. 

The Pacers have also played a bit slower without their floor general leading the way. The Pacers backups have been solid on defense.

The Utah Jazz have shot the ball extremely well their last couple games. This is an average team offensively for the year, and regression is likely coming for them.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Merrimack is the dominant defensive team in the NEC. Merrimack's unique zone defense really bothers teams in this league. The Warriors are extremely well coached. They play a full court zone press that is designed to slow the game down and create tough passes for their opponent. 

Central Connecticut State has played pretty well on offense of late, but they have been playing bottom feeders in this league. This is a much tougher test. 

Merrimack's offense is still a big weakness. The Warriors are 325th in the nation in offensive effficiency.

These two teams have played 8 times since Merrimack joined the NEC. All 8 games have finished with 127 points or fewer scored. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The George Washington Revolutionaries are shooting 47% from 3 point range in Atlantic 10 play thus far. George Washington is just 350th in the country in Open 3 rate, so they have been knocking down some very tough jumpers. I think they will regress from three point range. 

George Mason is 42nd in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. They are one of the better defenses in the league. George Mason has done a great job controlling the pace. They slowed down a very fast paced Tulane team to just 69 possessions. They slowed down Cornell to 69 possessions. 

George Mason has played the 138th toughest slate of opposing offenses this year. George Washington has played a very easy schedule and this is absolutely one of the best defenses they have taken on.

This total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Murray State Racers played a very tough slate of defenses in the non-conference portion of their schedule. Murray State has played the 61st toughest slate of defenses on the season thus far. 

Murray State has been elite offensively in MVC play thus far. In their five games in the conference, Murray State is averaging 78.8 points per game in conference play. The Racers do a great job taking care of the basketball. They also take high quality shots. 

Northern Iowa is 297th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are a solid 67th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Panthers shoot the ball well from long range and Murray State has struggled defending long jumpers.

I think the efficiency numbers will be pretty solid here. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Eastern Washington Eagles are a really good Big Sky team. Eastern Washington pushes the pace in a big way. They are first in the league in average possession length (quickest). Eastern Washington has scored 87 points or more in four straight games. It won't surprise me if they get in the mid to upper 80's again here.

Idaho is 316th in the country in defensive efficiency. They are allowing opponents to shoot 37.8% from 3 point range. Eastern Washington is loaded with amazing long range shooters. The Eagles should get a lot of easy looks here. Idaho has played a bunch of really weak opposing offenses this year, but that won't be the case in this one. 

Eastern Washington's defense is 229th in the country in defensive efficiency. Idaho should get some open looks from three as well here.

I think Eastern Washington pushes pace and gets the lead and Idaho has to pick up their pace when they are down. Both teams foul far more than an average team too.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The George Mason Patriots and Richmond Spiders are very similar teams to what they were last year. In the two meetings between these teams last year the finals were 62-58 and 62-60. I think we will see a fairly similar game in this one.

George Mason has played the 140th toughest slate of opposing offenses. They have only played the 348th toughest slate of opposing defenses. George Mason lacks a go to scorer and this team can go through long scoring droughts. Defensively, they do a great job protecting the paint. 

Richmond is bottom ten in the country in both offensive rebounding and free throws attempted. This team is 20th in effective field goal percentage defense in the nation. 

Both teams are playing extremely slowly this year. George Mason is bottom 40 in tempo in the  country. Richmond is using more than 20 seconds per possession on offense in the league.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I have been really impressed by the Western Illinois Leathernecks and their defensive turnaround this year under first year head coach Chad Boudreau. He brought in a 6'11 shot blocker in Drew Cisse, and he changes the game in a big way with his shot blocking. Western Illinois is 85th in effective field goal percentage defense this year after being 312th last year. 

Eastern Illinois is a bad offensive team. They don't shoot the 3 ball well, and they try to get in the paint. It will be tough against Cisse and company here.

Western Illinois is bottom ten in the country in average possession length (very slow pace). Eastern Illinois always prefers to play slow under Coach Simmons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SMU Mustangs rank 226th in the nation in shot selection. They are putting up a lot of low percentage 3 pointers and mid range jumpers. SMU is playing some terrific defense though. The Mustangs are easily first in the AAC in defensive efficiency. SMU is 4th in the nation in three point defense and 3rd in the nation in two point FG percentage defense. 

East Carolina has shifted their tempo downward in a big way in conference play. East Carolina is dead last in tempo in the conference play thus far. The Pirates are slowly improving on defense and have a defensive minded coach in Schwartz. 

SMU held Charlotte to 54 points two games ago and Memphis to just 62 points last game. E Carolina has held three of their last five opponents to 62 points or fewer.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Lafayette Leopards just beat the Colgate Raiders in shocking fashion in their last game. Lafayette has employed the strategy of stalling as much as possible and winning low scoring contests. They aren't very good, but they have won three straight games to start Patriot League play. Lafayette is 307th in average possession length (very slow). 

Navy is slower than an average team, and this Navy team is banged up right now. They are likely to be without one or two key players in this game. Navy is a solid defensive team that defends the three ball very well.

The last four meetings between these two teams have been as follows-

69-55 (124) 

68-44 (112)

59-50 (109)

53-34 (87) 

The pace will be very slow here. It will take very good shooting to get over the number.

I'll take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have changed up the way they have been playing of late, and it has been working. Western Michigan started the season playing at a slow pace. Their offense was struggling and they shifted into a much faster pace. It has been a great move. 

Western Michigan is first in the MAC in tempo in conference play. The Broncos are a surprising 3-0 in the MAC. The Broncos have played six straight games that have finished with at least 159 combined points. They are great on the offensive glass, and Ohio is very weak on the defensive boards. 

Ohio is 280th in defensive efficiency in the country. The Bobcats have been terrible defensively away from home. This is still a pretty good offense though led by Hunter and Mitchell. 

The offenses have the upper hand here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both Orlando and Miami are in the bottom ten in tempo in their last five contests. Both Orlando and Miami are also in the bottom ten in the NBA in offensive efficiency in that time span.

This is a divisional contest where the two teams are fighting in the standings- right now they are even. 

Orlando is without Wagner, their leading scorer, in this contest. Jimmy Butler is expected to miss this game for the Heat too. Tyler Herro is doubtful as well. That is some serious scoring threats likely to be out for this one.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Poly Mustangs and UC Riverside Highlanders are two of the slowest paced teams in the Big West. There are several teams who really want to get out and run in this conference, and both of these teams have been busy playing those teams quite a bit of late. I think that has the tempo number skewed in this one. 

These two teams are both bottom 50 in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage. Both teams take a lot of mid range and long range jumpers. They don't get to the free throw line very often at all.

The two defenses are mediocre, but I think that is good enough here. They are solid on the defensive glass, and second chance points should be few in this contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Abilene Christian Wildcats have been absolutely flying tempo-wise in their last few games. Abilene has played seven straight games to a pace of 76 possessions or quicker. That's an extremely quick pace. 

Grand Canyon is a much faster paced team this year than they were a year ago. The Antelopes are 88th in average possession length. I expect them to be happy to play in transition here.

Grand Canyon's frontcourt should be far too much for the very small Abilene frontcourt. Abilene has no shot blockers and Grand Canyon will get good looks inside and second chances.

Abilene Christian will use full court pressure and attack the hoop and get to the line. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Valparaiso Beacons are 218th in the nation in tempo. They toyed with pushing the pace quite a bit early in the season, but it wasn't working well at all. Valpo has clearly slowed down of late. They are 343rd out of 362 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Valparaiso has improved some on defense this year. They are defending well without fouling and forcing some turnovers.

Southern Illinois has year after year been one of the very slowest paced teams in the MVC. They are using more than 20 seconds on an average possession in the league. The Salukis are second in 3 point FG percentage defense on the year. Their defense should do a good job shutting down Valpo in this one.

This number has been bumped up enough that I have to play it.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers are excellent at dictating pace. Charlotte is 347th in the nation in tempo this year. The 49ers are going to slow the pace down here once again.

Tulsa played quickly in the non conference, but they slowed down significantly in the conference schedule last year and they have already played much slower in their first couple conference games this year. I think the Golden Hurricane will find it tough going against this Charlotte defense. Tulsa has had to get to the line to have success this year, and Charlotte is good at defending without fouling. 

Charlotte doesn't get many offensive rebounds, which helps Tulsa's biggest weakness on defense not hurt quite as bad as it would against other teams. Overall, Tulsa is an above average defense led by a defensive minded coach in Konkol. 

I had this one at 130, so I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars have played 15 games this year. They have gone over this total twice in regulation in that 15 game span. Providence is doing an excellent job on the defensive end under new coach Kim English. 

Providence is third in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Friars are excellent at defending the paint and grabbing defensive rebounds. 

In recent games- Providence held typically high scoring teams in Marquette and Creighton to games that finished at 129 total points in each case.

St. John's plays a fast pace, but they aren't all that efficient. The Red Storm rely very heavily on getting offensive rebounds, which should be harder than normal against the Friars frontcourt. St. John's has some good shot blockers on defense that should bother Providence on the offensive end.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars have had the best defense in the country this year, and it hasn't been even close. Houston is giving up just 0.849 points per possession. No other team is even in the same zip code. 

Houston is elite defensively every single year under Kelvin Sampson. The Cougars held Dayton to 55 points. They held Xavier to 60 points on the road. Houston is one of the 40 slowest paced teams in the country. They will dictate the pace as much as possible.

Iowa State is 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Cyclones have been excellent on defense each of the last couple years. They force a lot of steals and should bother the Houston offense.

Houston has faced an extremely easy slate of defenses so far this year. 

Iowa State has slowed their pace down in conference play the last two years. They played much slower against Oklahoma on Saturday too. I think their pace figures for the season overall are misleading.

Two top five defenses and I'll go with the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coppin State Eagles are 361st out of 363 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. Coppin State shots 25% from 3 point range. They turn the ball over on 24% of their offensive possessions. 

Coppin State is much improved on defense this year, and they are playing at a much slower pace. Coppin State was 19th in the country in tempo last year, but they are all the way down at 277th in pace this season. 

Maryland Eastern Shore is a bad team who is 354th in offensive efficiency. They have played slightly slower than an average team as well. In the past couple years they have been one of the better defenses in the MEAC, and in league play I think their defensive numbers will look quite a bit better.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Weber State Wildcats have really come on offensively in the last few weeks. Weber State has sped up their pace and they are going back to shooting more shots from long range. 

Weber State is averaging 85.6 points per game in their last five contests. The Wildcats take care of the basketball, and they are getting high quality shots. 

Oral Roberts is 110th in average possession length in the country. The Eagles are 14th in the nation in 3 point FG percentage.

Both teams have a weakness defending beyond the arc. 

The Summit League and Big Sky are both offense heavy leagues.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats can't let Marshall turn this into a track meet. Texas State is well coached and I believe they'll do a good job keeping this one slowed down enough.

Texas State is 279th in the nation in tempo. They are also 335th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. This is a bad offense that scraps and claws and plays good defense.

Marshall is 25th in the nation in tempo, but the Thundering Herd are 290th in effective field goal percentage offense and 135th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Texas State has played 12 games against Division I opponents so far this year. Only two of them have gone over this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coppin State Eagles are a completely different team than a year ago. This team just doesn't have much offense, and they have decided to slow the pace down considerably under their new coach. Coppin State is all the way down at 252nd in tempo this year after being 19th quickest last year. 

Delaware State is a bottom 30 offense too. The Hornets turn the ball over a lot and waste a lot of possessions.

Two really weak teams who put up a lot of bad shots. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Fairleigh Dickinson Knights are both extremely fast paced and very bad on the defensive end. They are 27th in tempo in the country. They are 351st in defensive efficiency. 

Le Moyne has played to the pace of their opponent so far this year. This is a team that has gotten into the 70's in possessions several times already this season. Le Moyne is 342nd in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have been bad on the defensive glass. There should be both a lot of transition run outs and second chance points for the offenses.

The two teams have both played a far tougher slate of defenses than offenses this season. Here is a weak defense for them to get right offensively.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Army Black Knights have one of the five worst offenses in the country. They are 358th in offensive efficiency. They are last in the nation in free throw percentage as a team at just 56.3%. 

Army is playing significantly better defense this year for new coach Kevin Kuwik though. They are great on the defensive boards and they have defended pretty well at the 3 point line. 

Army has seen their last three games finish with 116, 108, and 99 points total. The 58-50 win over US Merchant Marine was particularly troubling. This is an offense that can't score much on anyone.

Holy Cross is a bottom 35 tempo team in the country. They have a weak defense, but I think it will look better here. The Crusaders almost never get to the line and they defend without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMBC Retrievers are second in the nation (out of 362 teams) in tempo. The Bryant Bulldogs are number three. This game should be an absolute track meet in terms of pace of play.

UMBC is 356th in defensive efficiency. This team has allowed 87 points or more in eight games already this year. 

Bryant has really turned up the pace of late. Bryant is playing games to 78 or 79 possessions, and now they play easily the fastest paced team they have played this year.

Bryant's defense isn't as good as it looks on paper. The offense has played against a bunch of very good defenses, but that changes here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs have an elite defense led by Chris Jans. The hallmark of Jans and his teams for many years now has been their defense overall and specifically their 3 point defense.

Miss State has shot the ball well at home, but they have been bad offensively on the road and on neutral floors. I still don't trust this Miss State offense to consistently knock down jumpers.

South Carolina relies heavily on 3 pointers and that makes this a tough matchup for this offense. The Gamecocks work hard to slow the pace of the game down. 

Both teams are in the top 62 in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels offense hasn't been as good as normal this year. St. Mary's is 243rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Gaels have a very good guard in Aidan Mahaney, but he is being forced to take a lot of tough shots in the absence of outside shooters. 

San Diego gave the Gaels a scare last year. Steve Lavin's team is 273rd in the country in offensive efficiency. They lost star offensive players in Eric Williams and Jase Townsend from last year. They have gone through some very long scoring droughts this year.

St. Mary's is great at controlling the tempo. San Diego really hasn't played anyone who slows things down much, but that changes in this one. 

St. Mary's is bottom ten in the country and 11th in the country in defensive efficiency.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles have played three top 80 teams in a row in Evansville, Little Rock, and UT Martin. That has made them have some high scoring games of late. I'm going to go the opposite way on this one and take an under against Morehead State.

Morehead State is 347th in the country in average possession length. The Eagles are well known for slowing down the pace. Morehead State's Kalil Thomas is averaging 11.7 points per game and he missed last game and is questionable here. 

Both of these teams have had bad luck when it comes to "free throw defense" with opponents shooting a very high percentage from the line against them. 

The pace should be pretty slow here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen always want to push the pace under Frank Martin. UMass is 43rd in the country in tempo this season. Duquesne is quick when it comes to average possession length. 

These two teams played twice last year and the games were played to blistering fast paces of 75 and 82 possessions. The final scores were 167 combined points and 166 points.

UMass has been markedly better this year on offense than they were a year ago. This team is doing a much better job getting to the hoop and getting second chance points as well.

Duquesne similarly is excellent at getting to the free throw line and getting second chance points on the glass. 

These two teams both struggle on the defensive glass and they both struggle to defend without fouling. 

The matchup points toward an over having value with their strengths and weaknesses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have changed up the way they play the last few games. Western Michigan has played three games in a row to a tempo faster than 70 possessions. The Broncos are getting very aggressive going after offensive rebounds. Javonte Brown has joined the lineup in these three games, and it has made a huge difference. Brown has been a great spark for them.

Miami Ohio is elite from three point range. The Redhawks are shooting nearly 40% from long range. Western Michigan has had a terrible three point defense last year and this season thus far. The Redhawks biggest weakness is their rebounding. Western Michigan is likely to get a lot of second chance opportunities here.

I think the offenses have key edges here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Washington Eagles rank 62nd in the country in tempo. Eastern Washington has played a VERY tough schedule so far this year. They have played the 7th toughest slate of defenses in the country according to KenPom. I expect their offense to look far better in Big Sky play.

Sacramento State is the worst Division I defense Eastern Washington has faced so far this season. The Hornets do not force turnovers and they give up a bunch of open 3 pointers. 

The Eastern Washington defense doesn't force turnovers at a high rate, which could save Sacramento State's offense here. The Hornets shoot a bunch of 3's, and I expect positive regression from 3. They have turned it over at a very high rate this year, but I think they can score enough here.

The last three meetings between these two have finished with 156, 153, and 145 points. Big Sky overs have done great in the last decade. I think this number is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Poly Mustangs offense is terrible. Cal Poly is 336th in offensive efficiency. The Mustangs are 343rd in average possession length too, so they are stalling as much as they can even though they are playing from behind. 

UC Davis is an average paced team on the whole. They do play pretty quickly on offense, but they slow teams down by mixing up their defenses. The Aggies defense has really bothered Cal Poly in the last few seasons.

Both teams have played a far tougher slate of offenses than defenses so far this year, which I believe has skewed their numbers a bit.

The last three meetings between these two teams have had 116, 128, and 110 points total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Weber State Wildcats have really turned it on offensively in the last few weeks. They put up 78 at Cal Poly. They put up 84 points at Wyoming. They just scored 93 points in a fast paced game against Montana.

Weber State has been much more aggressive in recent games and they have picked up their pace. The Wildcats have several good outside shooters and a very good frontcourt player in Dillon Jones.

Montana State does have an advantage on offense that they can turn to here. The Bobcats are good near the hoop. They are 62nd in near proximity shots (right by the basket) and Weber State is 345th defending near the hoop. The Wildcats have absolutely no shot blockers.

The Big Sky is well known for the lack of defense and low overs in the Big Sky have done tremendous in the last decade.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are one of the worst offenses in the country again this year. They are 329th in the country in shot selection and 343rd in the nation in spacing on offense. They are 333rd in offensive efficiency. 

Eastern Illinois has also slowed their pace down quite a bit this season. They are 314th in the country in tempo after being 146th last year. 

Eastern Illinois is a team that relies on mid range jumpers and doesn't get to the line much.

SIU Edwardsville is even slower at 345th in tempo. They were 80th last year so this is a huge drop off. Edwardsville also is below average offensively. 

The total has been bet up in this one, and I have to side with the under. This should be a very slow paced game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates have changed the way they play in the last few games. They have drastically slowed down their tempo. East Carolina is now all the way down to 294th in tempo in the country. In five of their last six games the game has played to a 65 possession pace or slower. 

East Tennessee State is slightly slower than the average team at 200th in pace. The Buccaneers are 323rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. This is an offense which has really struggled. They rely on three point field goals a lot, and the strength of the E Carolina defense the last couple years has been their three point defense.

This totals number makes sense for full season data, but E Carolina has changed their style a lot in recent games and I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early game on Christmas break for the students. This should be a quiet environment. 

Elon's defense is definitely bad, there is no denying that. Valparaiso's offense has been bad enough to make some really bad defenses look decent this year though. Valpo only scored 56 on IUPUI. They scored just 62 points on Chicago State. 

Valpo has done a great job defending without fouling this year. Elon does rely heavily on two things on offense. The first is getting to the line. The second is knocking down three pointers. 

Elon is due for regression from three. The Phoenix are at 37.4% from long range this year after being just 29.2% from three last year. It is most of the same guys too.

Valpo has slowed down their pace in recent games as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Big Sky Conference play starts here. The Big Sky is perennially a terrible conference on defense. Next to no one in this league plays defense. 

Game overs in this league have been a tremendous bet over the last decade. If you just blindly bet all the Big Sky Conference games over the total you would have a 7% ROI.

These two teams both take a bunch of threes so there is definitely some variance in a game like this. Still, this is a spot where I have to expect points. 

These are two of the bottom 50 three point defenses in the country. Especially Sacramento State has played a lot of quality defenses this year. The Hornets are likely to start shooting better than 30% from three point range when they play against the weak Big Sky defenses. 

Idaho has tried to push pace at times this year. 

Both teams are good from the free throw line.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets are clear favorites here, and Denver is the second slowest paced team in the NBA. Golden State is just 13th in the league in tempo. The Warriors don't play as quickly as they did a few years ago.

This is a really high total for the projected pace here. Earlier this year these two teams met, and the total in that game was set at 228 points. The game finished 108-105. 

Christmas Day unders have done very well in the NBA in the long run. That has been especially the case in early day games. This one is a rare 12:30 pm local time tipoff in Denver.

Both of these two rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last five games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 10th in effective field goal percentage defense. Rutgers is blocking nearly 18% of opponent shots so far this year. They are 7th in turnovers forced so far this year as well. Rutgers is 276th in effective field goal percentage offense. They have had a lot of trouble scoring against good defenses the last few years.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 13th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They have shot the ball quite a bit better than last year so far, but they haven't faced many good defenses yet. I think they'll struggle more here. 

This is not a home game for Rutgers, it is a "neutral" site game. That by itself is a positive for the under as well. 

I think both teams will find open shots to come by here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins always play good defense for Mick Cronin. UCLA was embarrassed last game out against Cal State Northridge. They lost at home against the Big West school, and I would expect to see UCLA come out with much more intensity on defense in this one. 

Maryland is 25th in the country in defensive efficiency. They do a good job forcing turnovers and keeping the opponent out of the paint.

UCLA is 26th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Bruins are way down at 284th in effective field goal percentage offense. Maryland is all the way down at 290th.

There has been some steam on the over. Many times very low totals get bet up, but I think this one was low for a good reason.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies host Houston Christian in their last game before Christmas. Texas A&M will have a little over a week until their next game. With most students gone for the break and this being a poor opponent, I think Texas A&M will be content to just win here and not push pace. In fact, Texas A&M has really slowed their pace in general this year. They are 329th in the country in tempo. 

Houston Christian just doesn't have outside shooters. They are shooting 20.8% from 3 point range this year. That is last in the country. Texas A&M should be able to pack in the paint and try to force them to make some long range jumpers here.

Jay Alvarez is one of the best scorers for Houston Christian and he has missed their last two games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors play excellent defense under Joe Gallo. They play a great zone defense that extends full court to intentionally slow the game down. Merrimack has played a bunch of great offenses already this year, and their defensive numbers are still stellar. 

Bucknell is one of the worst offenses Merrimack has played so far this season. Bucknell also is 344th in average possession length. This is a team that will be happy to play a slow and low scoring contest.

These two teams are both very poor at getting second chance points. I think there will be a lot of turnovers and not that many offensive boards.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The William & Mary Tribe are 62nd in effective field goal percentage offense. They are all the way down at 345th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

William & Mary is a team that puts up a lot of long range jumpers. They should get a lot of good looks from 3 point range here. Pepperdine has been in the bottom 70 teams in the country in 3 point FG percentage defense in the last two years. 

Pepperdine is an above average paced team. The Waves typically foul opponents at a high rate. William & Mary is excellent from the free throw line. Pepperdine's aggressive nature getting in the paint on offense should work here with William & Mary lacking a good shot blocker down low.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen have played nine games this year. Only one of those games have gone over this total in regulation. That was a game that finished with a total of 143 points. Navy is one of the worst offenses in the country. The Midshipmen are 356th in effective field goal percentage offense. Navy is 57th in effective field goal percentage defense though. Ed DeChellis' teams play slowly and they play scrappy defense.

Youngstown State has some really good offenses already this year. They have gone against Michigan, Dayton, and Ohio. The Penguins are 129th in defensive efficiency in the country. They have played a bunch of quick paced teams, but Navy doesn't play that way at all.

I had this number at 134.5 and I think this one has gotten too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Dons are playing some tremendous defense so far this season. The Dons are 17th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have held six of their last eight opponents to 60 points or fewer. San Francisco is slowing the tempo down in a big way on offense. They are 293rd in tempo.

The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are 290th in offensive efficiency. They have played a lot of weak defenses lately (Pacific, Incarnate Word, Southern Utah) and that has propped up their point totals of late. Northern Arizona doesn't get to the line much at all, and they very rarely get offensive rebounds. I don't think they'll get many easy looks in this one either.

Both teams are in the bottom 35 in the country in FTA/FGA. 

This number has been pushed up several points.

I'm taking the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams just met December 9th and South Dakota won 78-73. Now they play in Bakersfield. 

South Dakota just allowed a ridiculous 121 points to UC Irvine. UC Irvine isn't an offensive juggernaut either. South Dakota is 333rd in defensive efficiency in the country. They don't get any steals, don't block any shots, and give up a lot of second chance points. A very poor defense.

Cal State Bakersfield has ranked in the bottom ten in the country at defending without fouling in the last two seasons. They give up a lot of second chance points too. South Dakota's offense has a big advantage shooting the 3 here, and South Dakota puts up a lot of shots from long range.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Citadel is 333rd in average possession length on offense. They are looking to use up as much of the shot clock as possible. Notre Dame is a little slower at 339th. This game will be played at a very slow pace.

Notre Dame has seen 7 of their games finish at 133 points or less, and The Citadel will be the slowest paced team they have played against so far this season.

The Citadel isn't great defensively overall, but they are excellent at getting defensive rebounds and not fouling. Notre Dame is elite in both of these areas as well.

With a very slow pace and small amounts of second chances and free throws, I'll take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Niagara Purple Eagles defense hasn't been tested by good offenses this year, but their defensive numbers are still awful. Niagara has faced the 355th toughest slate of offenses (362 teams in the country) and they are 345th in defensive efficiency in the country. They are giving up far too many easy baskets close to the hoop.

Binghamton has made a clear effort to play faster this year. They are 113th in tempo in the country. They are driving to the hoop as often as possible, and those shots in the paint should be much easier to come by against Niagara than most teams.

Binghamton is 302nd in defensive efficiency. This is a matchup of two very weak defenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Fort Wayne Mastadons have a good coach in Jon Coffman. He is known for running good sets where they have good spacing and shooters get a lot of open looks. They like to play with pace too. Fort Wayne is 36th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 37th in the country in tempo. 

Bethune Cookman is 46th in the country in tempo. They have committed fouls at the highest rate of any team in the country. They'll use full court pressure quite a bit and they'll likely get burned on that much of the time. 

I think the tempo here will be in the 77 possession range. A track meet.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* George Mason is an interesting team in that they have played to the pace of their opponent quite a bit. They are likely to be playing from the lead here, and they have shown they'll slow things down with a lead.

George Mason is pretty good, but they are due for some shooting regression. Woody Newton is shooting 63.6% from 3 point range so far this (14/22). Last year he was 18/65 (27.7%) from 3 point range. As a team they are shooting better than 40% from 3 point range. 

Loyola Maryland is a very weak offense, and they are badly undersized. They'll have a tough time getting open looks here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are elite defensively. This is a team that will make you work extra hard for your points. Rutgers was 6th in defensive efficiency last year, and they are 14th so far this season too. 

On offense, Rutgers takes a few too many mid range jumpers that are contested shots. The Scarlet Knights will score here on LIU, but they aren't always too efficient.

LIU is 353rd in offensive efficiency. This is a team that was held to 53 points in a 77 possession game against Pepperdine. They were held to 49 points in a 74 possession game against Miami.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Portland Blazers and Utah Jazz have met three times already this year. Two of the games finished 226 and 214 points. The other game went into overtime, but at the end of regulation it was 212 points. 

Portland is last in the NBA in offensive efficiency when playing at home. The Utah Jazz are second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency when playing on the road.

Utah plays at a league average pace and the Blazers play much slower than the league average.

The lead referee in this game is Brian Forte. The under is 530-438 in his games in his career. He's been one of the best under refs in the league.

Take the under in this divisional battle.

*3 Star Play Under* The Dartmouth Big Green have been a very good under team this year. Dartmouth is 293rd in the country in tempo. They were 105th last year, so this is a big slowdown.

Dartmouth has been held to 54 points or fewer four times already this year. Boston does a great job on the defensive glass and they have defended the 3 point line well.

These two teams have met in each of the last two seasons. The final scores in those games- 65-62 (127) and 67-59 (126). I think this game will be very similar with a combined total in the 120's.  

With the line move up here, I'll take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rice Owls offense is better than they have looked so far this season. Rice was 52nd in effective field goal percentage offense last year. They are 289th so far this year. This is a bunch of the same guys playing, they just aren't making the shots they did a year ago. They are shooting only 27.9% from 3 point range and I expect that to improve in a big way.

Rice has played a very tough schedule of defenses this year. They have had to go up against Harvard, Texas, UC Irvine, and Houston to name a few. 

Incarnate Word is arguably the worst defense Rice has played so far this season. They are 347th in defensive efficiency. They are 35th in overall tempo, so they have given up loads of points. UTSA scored 90 points on Incarnate Word. Bethune Cookman scored 96 points on them. 

Rice is below average on defense, and Incarnate Word will put up a lot of shots here. Rice doesn't force many turnovers and that is usually the biggest weakness of the Incarnate Word offense.

A day game where it is "School House Mania" and school children will be in attendance. This should be a fun up and down game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Phoenix rank 356th in average possession length. This is a team that is playing extremely slowly. Green Bay has a new coach in Sundance Wicks. He has this team playing much better defense than they did a year ago. Green Bay was a miserable 345th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are at 78th in the country right now. The Phoenix have been mixing up their defenses really well.

UIC is coached by a defensive minded coach in Luke Yaklich. He did a great job leading the Michigan and Texas defenses when he was an assistant. UIC is 11th in effective field goal percentage defense. UIC is 242nd in tempo as well, so they are good with lower tempo games.

Seven of Green Bay's ten games have stayed under this low total. UIC has played some very quick paced teams. That shouldn't be an issue here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It isn't easy to take a Gonzaga game under, but this total has gotten high enough I have to take this one. I had this number at 158. 

This is played at a neutral site. Gonzaga's offense is clearly very good, but they aren't elite as they were a year ago. Gonzaga was 20th in shot selection last year. They are 222nd so far this year. They have knocked down quite a few tough shots, but that could regress against a long athletic Washington defense.

Washington slowed down last year's meeting between these two and it finished just 77-60. This one should be higher than that, but I'm not convinced this should have a mid 160's total on it.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Weber State Wildcats are 357th out of 362 teams in the country in tempo. Weber State is great at defending without fouling and grabbing defensive rebounds and preventing second chance points. 

Cal Poly toyed with playing quicker earlier in the season, but they are back down to 346th in average possession length. The Mustangs just had a 49-49 game at the end of regulation against Oregon State last time out. They have slowed the pace drastically in recent weeks.

Weber State has held St. Mary's to 56 points and Yale to 59 in regulation. 

I think this will be a defensive game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers are a terrible shooting team. They are shooting only 25.7% from 3 point range. The Beavers do play good defense though. They are 65th in effective field goal percentage defense despite playing a tough schedule of opposing offenses. 

Utah Valley is 62nd in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Utah Valley will probably be without key player Drake Allen in these games. The Wolverines have significantly slowed down their tempo under new coach Todd Phillips.

Two teams who are better on defense than offense and they both prefer to play slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams met a year ago and the final was 59-49 with an extremely slow pace of 55 possessions. That was the slowest paced game of the year for Fullerton and the second slowest for Sacramento.

Fullerton has played the 27th toughest slate of offenses this year, so their defensive numbers should improve. The Titans have been dreadful on offense. They are settling for too many mid range jumpers. 

Sacramento State shoots a lot of shots from long range, but Fullerton has been good defending the arc last year and this year so far.

Both teams turn it over a lot and waste possessions. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tulane Green Wave are a very fast paced team. They have had a lot of high scoring games this year. Tulane though is about to play against the best defense they have faced so far this year, and it isn't close.

Tulane will probably be without Cross in this game which hurts the offense a lot. Tulane has played one of the easiest schedules in the country so far this year, and playing against the grind it out defense of Chris Jans and company should be tough for them.

Mississippi State's offense has clear issues. The Bulldogs scored 59 points against GA Tech two games ago and then scored 59 again last game in a shocking loss to Southern.

I think Miss State will do their best to slow the pace down here. They protect the paint well and should be able to make Tulane work hard.

A neutral site here and an early game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are 309th and 333rd in the nation in tempo. This game should be played in the halfcourt. 

Eastern Illinois is 351st in the nation in shot selection on offense. They are 338th in the nation in spacing on offense.

IUPUI is 313th in shot selection and 350th in spacing on offense.

Last year when these two teams met they both were playing quicker. The final combined total was 129 points and that was with 43 fouls called in the game.

This is a game I projected in the high 120's. After a line move toward the over, I'll go back the other way.

Take the under.