Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Florida/Alabama Totals MONEY* The Florida Gators have been much better on defense of late. Coach Mike White said it himself after their last win. He said the improvement in the last couple months on defense has been amazing. It is showing up when it comes to totals as well.

In Florida's last eight games, zero of them have gone above this total. One tied the number and one stayed one point below the number. Keep in mind that they have played a couple very good offenses in this time and a couple very fast paced teams.

Alabama ranks number one in the SEC in defensive efficiency. The Crimson Tide are allowing only 0.987 points per possession in conference play. Florida is second in defensive efficiency in the SEC. In their last six games they are allowing only 0.989 points per possession.

Alabama's main problem on offense is turnovers, and Florida will force a lot of turnovers here. Alabama relies on getting to the line a lot, and Florida is first at defending without fouling in the SEC. Alabama's defense excels at defending the 3 point line, which should make it difficult on Florida's long range jumpers that they rely on heavily.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Texas Tech/West Virginia CASH* The Texas Tech Red Raiders have lost three straight games. Texas Tech is third in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Red Raiders are first in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. I would expect a strong effort on defense after their recent losing streak.

West Virginia ranks second in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.90 points per possession at home on the season as a whole. 

Both of the games between these two last year, and the first meeting this year have all been played at a slow pace. Texas Tech ranks 8th in the Big 12 on offensive pace of play. West Virginia ranks sixth. 

Both teams are excellent at blocking shots, and both offenses get a lot of their shots blocked.

Two good teams late in the year with plenty to play for is an under signal for me. Also, Monday night is the single best night for unders in CBB long term because of the quick turnaround. That is especially true late in the year.

I think this one stays in the 130's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Furman Paladins take on the East Tennessee State Bucs on Sunday. This game means a lot to East Tennessee State. They are tied at the top of the SoCon with this being their final regular season game. 

East Tennessee State appeared to be coasting to a regular season title before losing back to back shockers at home against The Citadel and Wofford. 

East Tennessee State is coached by Steve Forbes, who does a great job with this team. He has talked about being disappointed by the defensive effort the last couple games. I expect a much better defensive performance on Sunday. ETSU is allowing only 0.948 points per possession in SoCon play. 

Furman relies heavily on the 3 ball on offense, and ETSU is first in the league at defending the 3 point line. They are allowing opponents to shoot only 32.2% from long range.

Late regular season games that mean a lot are good under plays. Another good under angle is a short turnaround, and this is certainly that after both of these teams played late Friday. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star CBB Total DOMINATION* The George Mason Patriots host UMass in A10 action on Saturday night. 

UMass started the season out being a great under team- playing at a slow pace and struggling on offense. That changed drastically after they lost their top two centers and decided to play quicker. Additionally, their defense went down the tubes. UMass is allowing 1.156 points per possession on defense in the conference. That is worst in the A10. 

George Mason has been a great over team at home in the past. The over is 43-20 in their last 63 home games.

Both of these teams have little to play for, and I like looking for overs in games that mean little at the end of the regular season.

The over is 8-0 in UMass' last 8 games. The over is 4-1 in George Mason's last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record. A 12-1 trend.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* UNC Wilmington and Drexel both like to play at a quick tempo. The first game between these two got to 166 points before overtime. UNC Wilmington averages 76.4 possessions when playing on the road. Drexel averages 73.8 possessions when playing at home. There shouldn't be anyone looking to slow this game down. 

UNC Wilmington has allowed only 1.04 points per possession when playing at home, but they are allowing an ugly 1.173 points per possession on the road. Inside conference play, Drexel is worst in the CAA when it comes to defensive efficiency. 

The combination of speed and two poor defenses should lead to a track meet that gets past this posted total. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs are 13-3 in staying under this number in their last 16 games. Georgia plays elite defense, and that is especially the case at home. 

LSU is averaging a miserable 0.987 points per possession on the road. The Tigers are averaging an impressive 1.186 points per possession at home. The road has been unkind to this offense.

The first game between these two finished at 61-60 with only 58 possessions. Georgia controlled the pace in that one. This game is totaled significantly higher, but I see it being another defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Northern Kentucky Norse have been back and forth this year between fast paced games and slower paced games. UIC started the season surprisingly playing slower than they did last season. That has changed in a big way. UIC has now played a whopping 10 straight games to a pace of 73 possessions or quicker. 

The Flames and Norse played a game that went to 75 possessions earlier this year. Northern Kentucky won 86-51. UIC scored a miserable 0.68 points per possession and the game still only stayed under this total by 8.5 points. 

UIC is playing much better on offense of late, and it is largely due to the great play of Dikembe Dixson. Dixson was injured last year and he started slowly this year, but he has scored 18 points or more in four of the team's last five games. He is a play maker for this team.

I see an up and down tempo, and with the total only in the mid 140's, I like the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The VMI Keydets and Samford Bulldogs are both really bad teams. They are also both very close to the end of their regular season (it ends on Sunday for both teams). 

When I see a matchup of two bad teams at the end of the regular season I always lean to the over. That is especially true when those teams are normally bad on defense. Both of these teams definitely fit that bill.

VMI is allowing 1.082 points per possession in the conference and 1.079 on the year. That isn't good, but it's a lot better than Samford. The Bulldogs are allowing 1.205 points per possession on defense on the year. That's 347th out of 351 teams in the nation.

These teams played to a pace of 80 less than a month ago. VMI plays to the pace of the opponent, and Samford has played to a pace of 76 possessions or quicker in five of their last nine games.

This one should be fast again, and I don't expect to see much defense.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters have been an under machine. UC Irvine slows the game down and they play tremendous defense. Opponents are averaging only 0.903 points per possession against Irvine this year.

UCSB has shot the ball well most of the year, but the Gauchos have a lot of pressure on them here. UC Irvine is right behind them in the Big West standings, and the Anteaters are a really tough team to beat on the road.

UCSB also plays at a slow pace. These two teams are first and second in the Big West in defensive rebounding, so that should help limit second chance points here. 

The under is 8-1 in Irvine's last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 18-6 in their last 24 Big West Conference games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a rare chance for both of these teams to play on national television. Jacksonville State pulled off the upset at Belmont earlier this year.

Belmont is tied with Murray State at the top of the OVC standings, and every game is a really big one to them right now. 

Jacksonville State ranks dead last in the OVC in effective field goal percentage. This is a team that plays slowly and doesn't shoot the ball well. Belmont's defense is even better than they were a year ago, and the Bruins are playing slightly slower.

Jacksonville State is allowing only 0.976 points per possession on defense. 

These two teams played 3 games last year and the final totals were: 137, 119, and 124 points. The game earlier this year was 124 points.

I think this one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats are a great under team. They play at the second slowest tempo of any team in the country (Virginia slower). Texas State is elite on defense, especially on their home floor. At the same time, they are averaging only 0.93 points per possession on their home floor. The under is 19-7-1 in their last 27 home games.

Georgia State and Texas State have played nine times in the last four years. All nine of those games have stayed under this total in regulation. None of them have gone above 124 points. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I rarely take overs that are this high, but I think there are plenty of reasons for the over in this contest.

Rider is 16th in the nation in pace of play out of 351 teams. Monmouth is quick as well, and they are 69th quickest in the country.

Both Rider and Monmouth are elite in getting to the free throw line. Rider is 14th in the nation in FTA/FGA and Monmouth is 3rd in the country in that same statistic.

The first game between these two was played at a ridiculously fast pace of 86 possessions. This one should be blazing fast with a bunch of free throws again.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles have been atrocious on defense this year, and they have been especially bad on that end of the floor of late. Marquette is allowing a mind-boggling 1.234 points per possession in their last three games. Marquette has allowed 85 points or more in six of their last seven games! 

The Golden Eagles offense is great though. Even though they'll likely be without Markus Howard, this Marquette team is full of shooters. They shoot better than 40% from 3 point range. St. John's weakness on defense is defending beyond the arc. Last year they ranked 300th in 3 point defense and this year they are 306th. Opponents are shooting 41.5% from 3 point range in Big East play against them.

Both teams foul more than the average team, and both teams here are great on free throws.

Neither of these teams have anything major to play for right now. They both will have to make a run in the conference tournament if they want to go dancing.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears host the Bradley Braves in a revenge spot for the Bears from a 72-52 road loss at Bradley earlier this year. 

Few teams in the country have the kind of offensive splits at home vs. on the road that Bradley does. The Braves are averaging a solid 1.05 points per possession at home. They are averaging an abysmal 0.936 points per possession on the road.

Missouri State has held opponents to 0.933 points per possession at home. The Bears defense should come ready to play here.

This one is for seeding in the MVC Tournament, and with a win Missouri State would tie Bradley in the standings. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles play a unique zone defense. They have a tremendous length at all positions, and that means a bunch of contested looks. Eastern Michigan ranks first in the MAC in defensive efficiency. Their one weakness is defensive rebounds, but Toledo is 11th out of 12 in the MAC in offensive rebounding.

Toledo star freshman Marreon Jackson is shooting 43% from long range on the year, but he is questionable for this one. He missed last game due to an injury. Toledo's defensive strength is defending in two point territory. Eastern Michigan relies on scoring inside the arc the second most of any team in the MAC.

13 of Eastern Michigan's last 15 games have been below this posted total in regulation. They have been extremely consistent. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are a really good under team. Why? The Knights are horrendous on offense. They are very solid on defense. They also play at a very slow pace.

Rutgers has had some extremely low scoring games. In fact, 9 of their last 15 Big Ten games have stayed at 119 points or lower. 

Ohio State ranks first in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. The Buckeyes held Rutgers to 46 points in New Jersey earlier this year. Coming off two losses, I expect the Buckeyes to be focused and very motivated on the defensive end.

Ohio State has shown a strong tendency to slow the game down significantly when they are winning, and they are a big favorite in this one. Look for them to get a lead and then lock it down with solid defense and ball control.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas started the season playing slowly, but they have reverted back to their old style of playing with a really quick tempo. Central Michigan is a rare team in that they have played quite a bit faster on the road on the season. 

Western Michigan plays at a tempo just a tick slower than average, but the Broncos are third in the MAC in offensive efficiency and ninth in defensive efficiency.

Central Michigan has seen only one of their last eight road games finish below 152 points. The Chippewas defense is 10th in the MAC in defensive efficiency. They are last in defending two point shots. That's important because Western Michigan gets the second most percentage of their points inside the arc of any team in the MAC.

Western Michigan's defensive weakness is defending beyond the arc. Again, this is where Central Michigan makes a living. The Chippewas also are first in the league in offensive rebounding.

This one is at a point spread where a foul fest late is a real possibility. Central Michigan is shooting 79.4% from the FT line in MAC play. Western Michigan is shooting 73.0% from the line in MAC play.

The over is 49-22-3 in W Michigan's last 74 home games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats have become a really good under team of late. Northwestern has slowed the pace down quite a bit, and it has been their zone defense that has helped keep the tempo under control. 

Northwestern has played 7 of their last 8 games to 131 total points or less, and one of those games went into overtime. In their last six games, only one game has had a pace above 60 possessions (very slow) in regulation. 

Maryland ranks 263rd out of 351 in the country in tempo. The Terps are only slightly quicker-paced than Northwestern, and when they played a couple weeks ago the tempo stayed slow and the final total was 130 points. Four of Maryland's last five games have paced to a tempo of 62 possessions or fewer.

The under is 10-1 in Northwestern's last 11 home games. The under is 9-1 in Maryland's last 10 games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes are playing quite a bit slower as the season moves along. Miami ranks 222nd in tempo on the year overall. The Hurricanes played Pittsburgh to a game with 67 possessions in it on December 30. On January 31, they played Pitt again and there were only 61 possessions in the contest.

Bruce Brown is out with an injury for Miami, and the team definitely misses him. He was one of the most athletic guys on the team, and he was a primary scoring option.

Notre Dame is still without Bonzie Colson and D.J. Harvey. Harvey re-injured himself at the end of last week, and that is a hit to the Notre Dame offense. Notre Dame is definitely still a good offensive team with Farrell now healthy again, but they play very slowly. The Fighting Irish are 326th in the nation in tempo (out of 351 teams). 

Notre Dame is elite at shooting 3's, but Miami ranks 29th in the country at defending beyond the arc. Miami is reliant on getting near the rim on offense, and Notre Dame has defended the inside well.

Both teams have been excellent at defending without fouling this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions have played some great basketball in the last few weeks. Penn State has been more deliberate on offense. They aren't looking to win high scoring games as much as they did in the past. They are looking to win with defense and ball control. It is working nicely. Penn State is all the way up to 17th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Purdue has lost three straight games after winning 19 in a row before that. The Boilermakers have slowed their pace down drastically in recent games as well. They aren't shooting as well as they did earlier in the year, and their shots should be contested well here. Purdue is still playing good defense though, and Penn State's offense has generally struggled on the road.

I expect Matt Painter's team to be ready to go on defense in this one as they try to stop their slump. A big game for both teams, and the tempo shouldn't be very fast.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are a tremendous under team. They are 306th out of 351 in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 18th out of 351 in defensive efficiency. Rutgers also plays at the 261st quickest tempo, so they are playing very slowly.

Maryland plays at the 259th tempo, so there is no reason to expect anything other than a very slow pace in this game. The Terps are better on offense and worse on defense, but they have played low scoring games against Wisconsin and Northwestern of late. 

The Rutgers offense has been downright abysmal in Big Ten play. They are averaging only 0.87 points per possession. 

I see a sloppy game here.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Washington Huskies have been an under machine this year, and I see no reason for it to change here. Washington is a poor offensive team, but their matchup zone is tremendous. 

Washington is first in the Pac 12 in defensive efficiency. Colorado is second in the Pac 12 in defensive efficiency. 

Colorado has been looking to slow the pace down. In the first game between these two, the final was 134 points. The shooting numbers were average if not slightly better than average in that one. 

Both teams can force turnovers at a high rate, and I see a lot of wasted possessions in this one.

My number was significantly lower than this.

Take the under. TOP Rated Play 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois State RedBirds are banged up right now. Phil Fayne is doubtful here and he is averaging 15.5 points and 7 boards per game. The team has missed him badly since he went out with an injury.

The first game between these two was surprisingly high scoring, but Northern Iowa generally has some extremely low scoring games. Northern Iowa is bad on offense and they play very slowly. They are also solid on defense. 

Illinois State has less firepower now than normal, and Northern Iowa has a starter in Juwon McCloud questionable for this one as well. 

The under is 52-34 in Northern Iowa's last 86 road games in Missouri Valley Conference play when the total is at least 120 points. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Dakota State Jackrabbits have been amazingly efficient on offense this year. South Dakota State is averaging a whopping 1.182 points per possession in the Summit League. They already torched Western Illinois for 98 points once this year. 

South Dakota State is the much better team here, and they look to push the pace at every chance. 

South Dakota State has seen 8 of their last 10 games go over this total. 

Western Illinois has been playing to the pace of their opponent, and with them likely being behind all the way here, they'll have to try to keep pushing and they should score enough here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LaSalle Explorers and George Mason Patriots have very little to play for right now. I like looking for spots where we have two underachieving teams late in the season who are unlikely to give a strong effort on the defensive end. I think this is one of those games.

LaSalle and George Mason have both picked up their pace and had higher scoring games of late. The recency trends are positive for the over, and I believe this is at least somewhat due to them not being very interested.

Both teams are better on offense than defense. Both teams shoot a very good percentage from the free throw line. With the spread what it is here, a foul fest late wouldn't be a surprise.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The first game between these two teams finished at 144 points, but that is misleading. It was 63-50 with 1:20 left in the game. An epic foul fest led to 31 points in the final 1:20 of the game. It was a low scoring slow paced game for much of the way. 

This line has moved up several points already, and I disagree with that move. San Diego is a team that doesn't shoot the ball very well, but they are very good on defense. Pacific has slowed down the tempo drastically in conference play. Pacific is averaging 19.6 seconds on offense before they put up a shot, which is the slowest mark in the West Coast Conference.

Both of these teams have seen 9 of their last 14 games stay under this total. My number here was 133.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies defense is a tough one to figure out. Mike Hopkins has his team playing a suffocating matchup zone that he learned under Jim Boeheim at Syracuse. The zone slows the game down because it doesn't allow easy looks from anywhere on the floor when it is run correctly. The one weakness of this zone is trouble getting defensive rebounds. In this matchup though, Utah is dead last in the Pac 12 in offensive rebounds.

Utah is last in the Pac 12 in tempo. The Utes are looking to slow the game down. Utah is reliant on the three-point shot, and Washington is first in the Pac 12 at defending beyond the arc. 

Washington's offense ranks 11th out of 12 in the Pac 12 in efficiency. They take a lot of long jumpers that aren't very good shots.

Washington has seen 9 of their 12 conference games stay under this total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Xavier Musketeers host the Seton Hall Pirates on Wednesday night. The first meeting between these two was 73-64 Xavier as they won on the road. 

This is an extremely high total. Late in the season, higher totals have stayed under the total at a very high clip the last three years. Totals of 159.5 or higher have gone 59.9% to the under in the past three years (game 22 or later in the season). If you narrow it down to teams with more than 50% overs on the year squaring off against each other it bumps it to 63%. 

Also, late in the year when good teams square off against each other it is a stronger angle to the under with both defenses generally playing hard in a game that means a lot.

These teams will likely score quite a few here, but this number is a few too high. Neither team fouls much at all, and that's important with a sky high total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights aren't the same team without Tacko Fall. With him, they are an elite defense. Without him, they have been a middle of the road defense. The over is 5-1 in UCF's six games since Tacko Fall was injured. 

USF plays very slowly, but they are awful on defense. In the league, USF is allowing a whopping 1.161 points per possession. That's worst in the conference. 

UCF has gaudy defensive efficiency numbers on the season (because Fall was so good in the interior), but in their last three games they have allowed 1.058 points per possession. That is worse than the average in the nation during that time. 

With BJ Taylor now back in the fold on the offensive end, UCF is much more capable on that end of the floor. The first game between these two finished at 140 and that was without Fall on the floor.

This number is too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are much more competitive than they used to be. Why? Because they are playing some really good defense. Rutgers is 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency on the year. They are also a miserable 309th out of 351 in offensive efficiency on the year.

In the Big Ten, Rutgers is averaging an ugly 0.859 points per possession. That is last in the Big Ten, and it is last by a mile. Who is second worst in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency? It's their opponent in this game, Northwestern. Northwestern is averaging 0.989 points per possession. 

Northwestern has switched over to a zone defense and slowed the game down drastically in their last ten games. Nine of those ten games have gone under the total. 

Both of these teams want to play slowly, and they are the two worst offenses in the conference. Both are playing well on defense. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* In general I don't like taking extremely low unders, but this one is very low for a reason. Virginia's pack line defense has been amazing this year. Virginia is allowing only 0.828 points per possession on the season. That's first in the country. Virginia is also the slowest paced team out of 351 in the country.

Seven of Virginia's last nine games have stayed under this extremely low number after regulation. The Cavs offense has tailed off of late, but their defense has been tremendous.

Miami's defense ranks 17th best in the country. The Hurricanes beat Virginia 54-48 in overtime last year. These two teams can play some great defense, and both can struggle on offense.

Miami's Bruce Brown is averaging 11.4 points per game, but he's out with an injury here. That hurts the Hurricanes offense quite a bit.

The defenses should have the upper hand the whole way.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Alabama Crimson Tide have a very good defense. Alabama Coach Avery Johnson said this year's team would win with defense, and he's been right. Alabama is 10th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Alabama is taking 1.5 seconds more on average in league play on the offensive end than they did in the non-conference slate. The Tide are averaging only 1.016 points per possession in the SEC. They are first in SEC play allowing only 0.946 points per possession. 

LSU plays to the pace of their opponent most of the time, and their offense has been subpar on the road.

-8 of LSU's last 10 have stayed under this number

-11 of Bama's 12 SEC games have stayed under this number

The first game got to only 140 points, and that was with a lot of fouling at the end and 35 made free throws in the contest.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles and Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are 12th and 11th out of 12 teams in the Mid American Conference in terms of pace of play. Many teams in the MAC want to run, but these two want to slow things down and they get a great chance to slow it down against each other. The first time these two got together we saw a 58-48 game played at a pace of 60 possessions. 

I don't think this one will be that low scoring, but I do think this total is too high. Three of Eastern Michigan's last five games have had 120 points or less in regulation. The Eagles are the best defense in the MAC with their matchup zone. They are also second worst in offense. 

Both of these teams have problems with turnovers. I see plenty of wasted possessions in this one which helps the under a great deal. 

I had this one at 125 points. This is a good amount of value on the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers and Michigan Wolverines are both teams I like to play unders with. These are teams who definitely want to play at a slow pace.

Wisconsin is 348th in the nation in tempo out of 351 teams. Michigan is 345th in the nation in tempo. This should be an extraordinarily slow paced game.

Michigan was 4th in offensive efficiency last year, but they are only 56th this year. The Wolverines were 69th in defensive efficiency last year, but they are 20th this year. 

Both of these teams rebound defensively extremely well. There shouldn't be many second chance points in this game. Neither team is good at getting to the line either.

Look for a tight low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LaSalle Explorers have been pushing the pace a lot more since B.J. Johnson came back from an injury. Johnson is the team's leading scorer, averaging an impressive 21.0 points per game and 8 rebounds per game. He is their main man, and with him back in the fold LaSalle is scoring against everyone.

The problem for LaSalle is they haven't been defending anyone. LaSalle has only allowed less than 72 points in one of their last 10 games. The Explorers are dead last in the A 10 in 3 point percentage defense.

St. Louis does play slowly, though they have played somewhat quicker of late. The first game between these two was played at LaSalle's tempo, and I think they'll be able to push the tempo some here.

This is a game between two subpar teams late in the year, and there are many successful over systems on mediocre or worse teams matching up late in the regular season. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs have been pushing the pace to the extreme of late. Samford has been involved in some really high scoring games. The Bulldogs are one of the best in the league on offense. They are also the very worst defense in the Southern Conference. Who has the second worst defense in the conference? The Citadel.

The Citadel ranks 2nd in the nation (out of 351 teams) in tempo. The Citadel is going to continue to push the pace as fast as they can, and based on all the datapoints we have to go off of from recently, Samford will be glad to run with them.

How about their last few meetings with each other? The last four meetings between them have finished with 181, 188, 198, and 198 points. The first game this year was played to a ridiculous pace of 87 possessions. 

Fast paced all the way again here, and with two terrible defenses- I expect a lot of points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Nebraska Cornhuskers host the Rutgers Scarlet Knights on Saturday. Nebraska has played their way onto the bubble with some very good defense this year.

Rutgers ranks an excellent 20th in the nation in defensive efficiency (out of 351 teams). Rutgers Coach Steve Pikiell has done a nice job getting his team to buy into his defensive philosophy. 

Both teams rank in the top 25% in the country at defending without fouling. These teams just met a few weeks ago and Nebraska won at Rutgers 60-54. That was an ugly game where the defenses had the upper hand.

They are likely to shoot a bit better here, but I see this being another game where the defenses have the edge. Rutgers' offensive numbers on the road this year are beyond awful.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The George Washington Colonials have decided to shift into a much faster gear in their last six games. They started the season playing extremely slowly. The oddsmakers have yet to account for this change in style of play. 

George Washington has the worst defense in the league, and George Mason's isn't much better. These teams went over the total when they played earlier this year, and both teams have played at a quicker tempo since then. 

This is a game between two subpar teams late in the year, and there are many successful over systems on mediocre or worse teams matching up late in the regular season. 

Look for some carefree play from both teams as they look to get their points and we see very little effort on the defensive end. 

Take the over. TOP Rated Play

*4 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears went to Kansas and nearly won a few weeks ago. Baylor had the lead late, and ended up losing by 3. This should be a very tightly contested game. 

Baylor is the team that wants to slow things down. They have tried to run with some teams in the Big 12 lately and it didn't work. They got back to their normal style of play against Oklahoma State last game and picked up a road win. I have to think they know they don't want to run with Kansas here. 

Both of these teams are very good at defending without fouling, which is a nice plus. 

Kansas has slowed their tempo down notably in recent games. The Jayhawks have only played one game at a pace faster than 69 (74 against Oklahoma)  in their last 8 games.

This total is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Miami Heat host the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night. These are two teams who like to play at a slow pace. Miami ranks 28th in the league in pace on the year and Milwaukee is 24th. 

The tempo here should stay slow. Dwyane Wade returns to Miami and is expected to play here. Wade has said many times in the past he prefers to play at a slow tempo. Also, integrating him into the offense could take a bit of time. Jumping in this late in the season isn't easy. 

The Bucks have caught my attention because of the defense they have been playing since Jason Kidd left. Milwaukee ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. They are allowing only 0.974 points per possession during that time. Miami is sixth in that same stat in the last eight games.

Milwaukee ranks in the middle of the league in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. Miami ranks 26th. 

This is a low number by today's standards in the NBA, but it is low for a reason.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rhode Island Rams are first in the Atlantic 10 in defensive efficiency. The Davidson Wildcats are second in the A 10 in defensive efficiency. Davidson is moving at the slowest pace of any team in the A 10 so far this year. Rhode Island is sixth in the A 10 in pace.

All of these things don't really suggest a number of 145.5. Davidson is excellent on offense, but they are reliant on 3 point shooting. Rhode Island only allowed opponents to shoot 29.5% from 3 point range last year. They are excellent at defending beyond the arc again this year at 32.2% allowed. 

These teams have played each other five times since Davidson entered the Atlantic 10 three years ago. All five of those games have gone under this total- including one of them that went into overtime.

Davidson has shot 44.8% or higher from 3 point range in each of their last three games. That number is likely to regress over time, and against a Rhode Island great defense it may well be here. 

Rhode Island's one weakness on defense is they foul too much. Davidson is dead last in the nation in free throw attempts/field goal attempt though, and that's a big boost.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There is no doubt that this isn't a comfortable game to take the under in. Both of these teams are very good on offense. Still, this is an extremely high posted total. 

In the last 10 games of the regular season in the last three years- the under is hitting 59% when the total is 159.5 or higher. 

USC plays quickly on offense, but opposing offenses have played at the slowest pace in the country (351st). Why? USC is playing a lot more zone this year, and they are mixing up their defenses very well.

Arizona State has been money against man to man defenses, but they have struggled quite a bit in Pac 12 play against zones. You have to think USC will use zone a decent amount here.

In the Pac 12- Arizona State is 8-3 to the under on this posted total. USC is 9-1-1 to the under on this number.

This one is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Washington Huskies have the number one ranked defense in the Pac 12 so far this year. Washington's zone defense under Coach Hopkins has been tremendous. They are very active in the zone, and they force turnovers at a high rate. The weakness of this Washington defense is their defensive rebounding, but Oregon has been poor at getting second chances in Pac 12 play.

Oregon is no longer playing quickly. The Ducks are the third slowest team in Pac 12 action. The Ducks shoot a lot of three pointers, and they aren't very good at them. Washington is best in the Pac 12 at defending the three point shot. 

Washington has seen 8 of their last 10 go under this number. Their zone is an equalizer, and I think it slows things down quite a bit here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* This Sun Belt tilt should be higher scoring than the oddsmakers believe. South Alabama is pushing the pace in a big way, and they are getting to the line more than any other team in the conference. South Alabama should make a living on the line here. Little Rock fouls more than any other team in the conference.

Though Little Rock doesn't play very fast, they are atrocious on defense, and that has made their games high scoring.

Little Rock has seen 9 of their last 11 games go over this posted total. South Alabama has seen 9 of their last 10 go over this posted total.

This one fits a nice angle as well. When both teams in the game are coming off five consecutive games shooting 40% or worse from 3 point range, the over is hitting at 61% in the last 10 years when the posted total is 132 or lower. This suggests an overreaction from the oddsmakers.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints are short handed right now. They are without Nico Clareth who was their best player and leading scorer. They are now also without Roman Penn who has been a key contributor. Siena has slowed the pace to a halt since their main scorers have gone out. They are looking to make the game sloppy and win a low scoring battle.

Canisius and Siena played a 65-62 game at Siena's pace (62 possessions) earlier this year. Siena now has less scorers than they had for that game.

Both of these teams are good at forcing turnovers, and I expect a lot of wasted possessions in this one.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Hofstra Pride have consistently been excellent on offense and poor on defense over the years. They are the same this season. Hofstra is 70th in offensive efficiency and 280th in defensive efficiency. They also prefer to play at a fast pace.

Elon made a lot of changes to their schemes in the offseason. It has helped the offense and hurt their defense. Elon was 113th in defensive efficiency last year, but they are 241st this year. They averaged 1.051 points per possession on offense in the conference last year, but they are all the way up at 1.118 points per possession this year.

Last year's meetings both went over the total. Both teams are better over teams this year.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The UC Irvine Anteaters have the best defense in the Big West. Cal State Northridge is averaging a miserable 0.899 points per possession in conference play. On the season, Northridge is 340th out of 351 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. 

What about UC Irvine's offense? They are 255th out of 351 in offensive efficiency. They don't have the go to scorer like Luke Nelson who they had as a go to guy in recent years. 

Northridge is significantly slower than the average team. They are 293rd in tempo in the country. Irvine is 218th. 

The first game between these two was played to a pace of 61 possessions and the final was 71-54. UC Irvine shot better than normal in that game and Northridge shot almost exactly their normal percentages.

This line is more than 5 points too high.

Take the under. TOP Play

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs have played 11 SEC games thus far. Only one of those games has gone over this total. That was against the very fast paced Auburn Tigers. 

Vanderbilt ranks 323rd in the nation in average possession length. They are using 19.0 seconds on average before putting a shot up. The Commodores won't look to play quickly here. 

Georgia is 322nd in average possession length and 337th in overall tempo. The Bulldogs want to grind out the game. 

Vanderbilt's defense has been bad this year, which has led to quite a few high scoring games for them, but this is a different type of opponent. Georgia is dead last in the SEC in offensive efficiency. They have been reliant on second chance points, and Vanderbilt has been good on the defensive glass.

The tempo of this game should lead to a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The George Washington Colonials were a great under team through the first couple months of the season. Things have changed of late. They have picked up their tempo quite a bit. George Washington was regularly playing at a pace of 61-64 possessions per game. In their last six games, they haven't played a game below 67 possessions. 

LaSalle was without leading scorer B.J. Johnson for several games this year, and that has their stats a little out of whack for the season as a whole. With him in the lineup, LaSalle is a top 100 offense in the country. They rank third in the A 10 in tempo as well.

LaSalle is giving up 1.06 points per possession on defense in conference play, and George Washington is allowing a ridiculous 1.133 points per possession on defense in A 10 play. 

Two bad defenses and recent trends pointing to a quicker tempo.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wofford Terriers are averaging a very impressive 1.131 points per possession in SoCon play. Samford is allowing a ridiculous 1.193 points per possession on the season as a whole. Samford has the worst defense in the league, and Wofford shouldn't have any trouble putting up a big number here.

Samford's recent pace of play is the main reason for this selection. The Bulldogs are playing at a pace much faster than they started the season. The Citadel is noted for their fast pace (2nd fastest in the country), and Samford has played at almost exactly the same pace as them in their last five games. Samford is solid on offense with multiple good shooters, and they are shooting 82% from the free throw line in conference play.

The first meeting between these two went to 182 points. This one isn't likely to get that high, but I expect it to be high.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The tempo will definitely be slow in this one. Michigan and Northwestern play a similar style of game, and it's hard to imagine either of these teams speeding things up.

Northwestern played relatively slowly to start with, and now they are playing a lot more zone defense to slow things down even more. The Wildcats are playing at 64.3 possessions per game in the conference. Michigan is playing at a pace of 64.4 possessions per game in the conference. That tempo would rank in the bottom 25 in pace in the country as a whole.

These teams just met 8 days ago. They played to a pace of 59 possessions and there were only 24 free throws. Neither of these teams gets to the line much at all, and I expect a similar tempo with slightly better shooting numbers in this game.

My number here was 125.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles have arguably the best defense in the MAC. They are first in effective field goal percentage defense. Eastern Michigan was extremely weak on the defensive glass last year. They still aren't good there, but they are much better than a year ago. Kent State ranked in the top five in the nation in offensive rebounds last year, but they are 89th this year. 

Eastern Michigan will slow the tempo down with their zone defense here. Kent State hasn't seen this type of a zone this year. The Golden Flashes don't shoot the ball well from long range. 

Eastern Michigan ranks 10th in the MAC in offensive efficiency. They have turnover problems that should hurt them against a trapping Kent State defense. 

Four of the last five games in this series have stayed under this number, and E Michigan is playing slower this year than in previous seasons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Denver Nuggets offense was disappointing for a while, but they are back and firing on all cylinders now. Denver is averaging 1.127 points per possession in their last six games, which is fifth best in the NBA.

Charlotte's offense has been amazing of late. The Hornets are averaging 1.136 points per possession in their last six games, which is second best in the NBA.

What about the defenses here? Charlotte and Denver are 24th and 25th in defensive efficiency in their last six games. 

Charlotte is pushing the pace, and Denver is a middle of the road tempo team right now. I expect both offenses to have the upper hand throughout in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Brooklyn Nets host the Milwaukee Bucks early Sunday afternoon. This game is being played much earlier than a typical game to keep it away from the Super Bowl. 

Sunday is the best day by a large margin for unders in the NBA in the last 10 years. Early day games have been the strongest for unders. 

The Bucks have shown improved an improved defense under new coaching in recent games. Milwaukee is fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. For the year, they are 18th. 

The Nets are no longer playing quickly like they did early in the year. Brooklyn ranks 27th in the NBA in tempo in their last 8 games. 

Milwaukee has played 5 straight games under this total. Brooklyn has played 7 of their last 9 to a lower scoring game than this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This play is mostly about Samford's recent tempo change. Coach Padgett has often talked about wanting his team to play fast, and they have started doing it in a big way in their last four contests. They pushed a slow paced Chattanooga team to 79 possessions. They pushed VMI to a pace of 80 in their recent game. This team isn't slowing down for anyone right now.

Western Carolina isn't good on offense, but they are weak defensively as well. Samford ranks fifth worst in the nation in defensive efficiency out of 351 teams.

Two terrible defenses here and one team who pushes the pace to an extreme, but the total here isn't all that high.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders are the team to beat in Conference USA. This is a team that plays tremendous defense, and they have a veteran group with a lot of basketball smarts. 

MTSU is a big favorite here and they should win comfortably. That helps this play because MTSU is the much slower paced team. If they get a big lead, that should help the under.

Even with one game going into overtime and one game being against Marshall who plays about as fast as anyone in the country, MTSU has seen all 10 of their games stay under this total. That 10-0 angle isn't one to overlook here. This is a great defensive team.

Charlotte plays quickly, but they are very inefficient on offense. They aren't likely to shoot the ball well against this defense.

Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Play Totals CRUSHER* The Georgia Bulldogs have been an excellent under team all year, and their under trends have been much stronger recently. This is a team that is stalling in a big way, and they are struggling on offense. They are excellent on defense though.

Georgia is in big trouble offensively when they aren't getting to the free throw line. Mississippi State's defense is very good at defending without fouling. 

These are the 12th and 19th rated defenses in the country when it comes to defensive efficiency. On offense, they are 159th and 127th. 

In Georgia's last 10 games, only one game finished at a total higher than 132 in regulation. In fact, 7 of the 10 have been 127 points or lower. They have been very consistent.

Mississippi State typically plays to the pace of their opponent, and here that's a very good thing. 

Look for a hard fought defensive struggle.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats are the second slowest paced team in the country. This team is much better on defense than on offense. They are a very good under team.

Appalachian State likes to play quickly, but they aren't playing quite as fast as they did a year ago. The Mountaineers like to shoot a lot of 3's, but Texas State ranks 24th in the nation in 3 point field goal % defense.

These two teams met twice last year. The final totals were 125 and 123 points. They met earlier this year and the final total was 128 points. These teams have shown us what tempo and how the style goes consistently when they square off. I see another game in the 120's here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* North Dakota and Montana meet on Saturday in Big Sky conference action. There are multiple very good trends on Big Sky overs, and many of them apply to this game. This is a league where very little defense is played.

The first meeting between these two went to 188 points. Will they score that much in this one? It's highly unlikely, but I think this total is too low.

Montana likes to run when they can, and they are great at getting to the line. The Grizzlies weakness is their fouling on the defensive end. Both of these teams foul a lot and both get to the line a lot. Expect a lot of points at the stripe here.

North Dakota has pushed the tempo against top teams at home in the past, and I don't see them changing here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Chicago Ramblers and Missouri State Bears play a very similar style of basketball. No one here is going to want to push the pace. These are two teams who look to slow things down and win with their defense.

When these two met earlier this year it played to the expected tempo and it was 64-59. Both of these teams do a solid job defending without fouling. Missouri State has relied on offensive rebounding for much of the year to do damage on offense, but Loyola is very good on the defensive glass.

An MVC defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights aren't nearly as good on defense without the 7'6 presence of Tacko Fall in the middle. UCF changes the way they play without him, and Houston is one of the best offenses in the league.

Also important is the fact that Houston is pushing the pace this year. UCF is much more likely to play quickly without Fall in the lineup than they are with him.

Both games between these two last year went over the total easily. Now, UCF has their leading scorer Taylor healthy again, and they are much worse on defense. Houston is playing much quicker than a year ago.

This number is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat have been the best defense in the NBA of late. Miami is allowing only 0.944 points per possession in their last five games. For the year as a whole, Miami is sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

The Philadelphia 76ers are a lot better on defense than most people realize. The 76ers are fourth in the NBA for the season in defensive efficiency. They have played at a quick pace most of the year, but they have slowed down substantially of late. Philadelphia ranks 4th in the NBA in tempo on the season overall. Interestingly, they are only 23rd quickest in the NBA in pace in their last 12 games. 

The Heat have played slow all year. Miami ranks 28th in the NBA in tempo on the season. Miami is dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last ten games averaging 0.989 points per possession.

The under is 36-16 in Miami's last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints are using a new offense this year. It is much slower than they have run in past years. They were already using this slowed down attack before they lost key players, but now that they are without many offensive stars they have slowed down even further.

Siena lost star Nico Clareth after 15 games. He is the only guy on the team averaging double figures. With him off the team now, their leading scorer is averaging 9.7 points per game. Khalil Richard has been the team's top 3 point shooter this year, but he is expected to miss this game with an injury. He averages 8.1 ppg. Jordan Horn, who averages 7.5 ppg is questionable due to an injury here as well.

In 3 of Siena's last 4 games, they have played to a regulation pace of 59 possessions or slower. They are using a whopping 21.0 seconds of the shot clock on average.

Manhattan is the second slowest paced team on offense in the MAAC. Siena is the slowest. No one will be pushing the pace here.

Manhattan is 9th out of 11 in the MAAC in offensive efficiency. Siena is 11th. These two also turn it over more than any other teams in the league. Those wasted possessions should help out the under here.

Look for a sloppy low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Total of WEEK* The St. Mary's Gaels are one of the best teams in the country when it comes to controlling the tempo. St. Mary's slows things down and they rank 20th slowest in the country in tempo. They'll want to play slowly here.

San Francisco ranks among the 100 slowest teams in the country out of 351 as well. The Dons are also 218th in offensive efficiency. They aren't likely to be able to shoot the ball at a high percentage on the road at St. Mary's. 

St. Mary's defense was poor in non-conference action compared to their norm, but they have been much better of lat.e The Gaels are allowing less than 0.96 points per possession in WCC play. 

These two met twice last year and the final totals were 115 and 112 points. St. Mary's is a little quicker and not quite as good on defense, so I don't think this one stays that low, but this is way too big of an adjustment.

St. Mary's is good at slowing things down with the lead, and they are a big favorite here. Look for them to slow the game down even more with things in hand late.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Big Sky is a conference where almost no one plays good defense. Overs in the Big Sky have done extremely well. That is especially the case when the number has been set at a relatively low posted total for this conference. 

There is a system that has cashed 60.6% of the time on the over in the Big Sky dating back to 2007. The sample size here is more than 300 games. 

-It is a Big Sky conference game with a total of 153.5 or lower. The home team allows at least 35.5% makes on 3 point attempts and the spread is no more than 13 points in either direction. 

This game fits the system. The first game between these two was 82-67 with only 26 free throws attempted in the game. Both teams had their big men scoring easily on the inside in that game. 

Nine of Sacramento State's last 10 games have gone over this total. Eastern Washington has seen 14 of their last 17 games go over this low number.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and Coastal Carolina Chanticleers played twice last year. The final totals in those games were 113 and 102 points. They played earlier this year and the total was 101. The oddsmakers obviously can't line a game that low here, but I think there are some solid reasons to believe this one will be very low again.

Texas State is 348th in the nation in overall tempo. The Bobcats are also worse on offense and better on defense than they were last year. 

Coastal Carolina is playing a bit slower than last year, and they are also down from last year on offense and improved on defense. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 40 in the country in turnovers as a percentage of their possessions. The recent games between these two have featured a bunch of wasted possessions, and I think this one will as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Northwestern/Wisconsin Total TAKEDOWN* The Northwestern Wildcats have started playing quite a bit of zone defense in recent games. Coach Collins decided their man defense had been bad enough that he wanted to switch things over. It has helped them be more competitive against quality teams, and it has slowed the tempo of their games down.

Wisconsin ranks 345th in tempo in the country. The Badgers are coming off a poor defensive performance in the second half against Nebraska in their last game. I expect a better effort on defense here.

The tempo here should be extremely slow, and both teams have had issues on offense this year. Wisconsin has scored 63 points or fewer in 5 of their last 7 games. Northwestern was held to 46 points at Indiana and to 47 points at Michigan in recent games.

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Southern Miss Coach Doc Sadler said before the season that his team would play much faster and shoot it much better than last year. He was right. Southern Miss is playing about 3 possessions per game quicker than last year in conference play. They are also 4th in the conference in offensive efficiency after being 14th last year. On the other side though, Southern Miss has dropped from 8th in CUSA in defensive efficiency to 14th. They aren't guarding well at all.

FIU averaged 18.8 seconds before shooting the ball last year. This year they have sped up to where they are averaging only 17.1 seconds before putting up a shot. 

Both of these teams rank in the top 20 in the country in turnover percentage. They value the ball very well. 

With a quicker pace and Southern Miss' worse defense I think this number is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Not many teams can dictate tempo as well as the Long Beach State 49ers. Long Beach State wants to run, and they are great at forcing the issue. Long Beach State has had a tempo of 71 possessions or quicker in all of their Big West games. That includes the first game against UC Irvine which played to a very fast pace of 74 possessions.

UC Irvine has played 10 games to a tempo of 71 or quicker this year. They usually slow things down a bit, but they are willing to run with some teams. UC Irvine fouls at a very high rate, and Long Beach State excels at getting to the line. 

Though the shooting numbers from three point range in the first meeting aren't likely to be repeated, there were only 28 free throws total in the first game and that number should go up here.

Long Beach State hasn't scored less than 70 points in a Big West game this year. They have scored 75 or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The 49ers defense is among the worst in the league. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers have been tremendous at controlling the pace of a game on both ends of the floor. Virginia is first in the nation in defensive efficiency, and they are first by a mile. Virginia is allowing only 0.808 points per possession on the year. Opponents are only shooting 42% on two point field goals against them. This defense is tremendous. 

Since the start of ACC play, only one team has gotten Virginia to play at a tempo faster than 65 possessions and that was VA Tech in a blowout. The Cavs have held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 52 points or less. Virginia also plays at the single slowest pace out of 351 teams in the country.

Louisville is 7th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Cardinals are 140th in effective field goal percentage offense. This Cardinals team likes to play fast, but they are much better on defense than offense.

These teams are very similar to what they have been in recent years as far as schemes. They have played 6 times in the last three years. Only once have they gone above 116 points total in their game. That was last year's final meeting when Virginia shot 53.2% from the floor.

Two elite defenses and one team who is great at controlling the tempo on the slow side.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats are second in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.84 points per possession. That's only behind Virginia. Cincinnati is a very aggressive defense that can really worry you because of their physicality. 

Cincinnati ranks 300th in the nation in tempo. The Bearcats prefer a slow it down type of game where they win with defense and their toughness. 

Houston likes to try to force the pace, but they have been unsuccessful at speeding up the slowest teams they have played this year. 

The last four meetings between these two have stayed easily under this number. Houston is better defensively this year than they have been in any of the recent seasons. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Washington Wizards host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday night. Oklahoma City is a completely different team without Andre Roberson. Roberson is one of the best defenders in the league, and he is also a liability on the offensive end. Oklahoma City is a much better over team without him on the floor.

Oklahoma City's offense took a while to get going this year, but they have gotten going in a huge way of late. In the last six games, the Thunder rank first in the NBA in offensive efficiency averaging a whopping 1.219 points per possession. Golden State is second at 1.153 points per possession. The Thunder are 21st in the NBA in points per possession allowed on defense in that time span.

Washington ranks 27th in the league in defensive efficiency in their last six games. The Thunder and Wizards both rank in the top 12 in the NBA in tempo during the last six games.

The Thunder are averaging 122.5 points per game in their last six contests. They have scored 121 or more in 4 of their last 5 games. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas have decided to start pushing the pace again. This is a team that played extremely fast last year. They started the season by slowing down considerably, but the Chippewas have consistently forced the pace of late. Central Michigan is second quickest in MAC conference action on the offensive end.

Northern Illinois is playing at the same pace they were last year, but they are a totally different team. Northern Illinois last year averaged 0.989 points per possession on offense. They gave up only 1.024 points per possession. This year, Northern Illinois is averaging 1.050 points per possession and giving up 1.111 points per possession. Their offense went from a weakness to a strength. Their defense went from a strength to a weakness.

Northern Illinois has allowed 79 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Central Michigan has allowed 70 points or more in seven straight games. Central Michigan has allowed 82 points or more in 4 of their last 7 games.

Two subpar defenses and two offenses who take care of the ball and should score pretty efficiently here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars were playing really quickly in the non-conference slate. That has changed in Pac 12 play. Washington State has used 16.7 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average for the season, but inside Pac 12 play they are using 18.0 seconds of the shot clock on average. 

The Washington Huskies have slowed down just a tick as well, and the Huskies are playing some great defense. Washington ranks first in the Pac 12 in defensive efficiency. Opponents are averaging only 0.986 points per possession against Washington. The Huskies are first in the Pac 12 in 3 point defense allowing opponents to hit only 27.6% of 3 pointers. That's important since Washington State shoots more 3's than anyone in the country. 

Washington is last in the conference in 3 point percentage on offense as well. The Huskies have often struggled in halfcourt sets.

The under is 23-4 in Washington's last 27 Pac 12 games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are very good at making a game low scoring. Northern Iowa is 345th in the country in tempo. The Panthers are also averaging only 0.975 points per possession in the MVC. On defense, N Iowa is 40th best in the country in defensive efficiency. They very rarely foul (11th best in country) and very rarely get to the line.

Loyola Chicago has surprisingly been the best team in the MVC this year. Loyola plays at a similar tempo. The Ramblers rank 316th out of 351 in the country in pace of play. They are much better offensively, and equal for the season defensively to Northern Iowa. Inside the conference, Loyola is allowing only 0.929 points per possession. 

The first game between these two was played at a pace of only 57 possessions. This one I would project at the 59 possession mark, and even at that level it will take some good shooting numbers to get past this total, especially with neither team fouling much (if they stay true to form). 

My numbers are considerably lower here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Davidson Wildcats ranked 77th in the country in tempo two years ago. They were generally known as a very high scoring team. Last year, they slowed it down to 161st in tempo in the country. This year, they have slowed down drastically, Davidson ranks 320th out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. 

Davidson is still a good offense, but there are a lot fewer possessions in their games now than there were in the past. In 3 of Davidson's last 4 contests, there have been 57 possessions or less. That's about as slow as you'll ever see.

Richmond is 228th in the country in tempo. The Spiders won't want to run against a good offense like Davidson. Richmond was able to stop Davidson in the first game, and they won 69-58.

Davidson should get revenge here, and the Wildcats have shown they are perfectly happy to slow the game to a halt late when they have the lead. 

Davidson's previous reputation makes this line too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders are a really good under team for several reasons. First, they are excellent on defense. The Blue Raiders are easily first in the conference in defense, and they are actually 21st best in the nation out of 351 teams. MTSU also slows the tempo down in a big way. MTSU is 310th out of 351 teams in average possession length on offense. MTSU also is also worse on offense this year with JaCorey Williams and Reggie Upshaw gone from last year's very good offense.

MTSU has had only 2 of their 8 games in conference go over this total. One was an overtime game that finished at 137 points. The other was a 136 point game against Marshall, who ranks fourth in the nation in pace of play.

UTEP tends to play to the pace of their opponent. The Miners aren't likely to be able to get things going quickly here. 

I expect MTSU to get a lead here and then slow things down and keep this under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green host the FIU Panthers on Saturday. North Texas is an improved team under new coach Grant McCasland. North Texas is slowing the game down and playing much more competitively on the defensive end than they did a year ago. 

FIU is about average in the country when it comes to tempo, but they are terrible on offense. FIU is 310th out of 351 teams in offensive efficiency. Inside the conference, they are averaging only 0.947 points per possession. They are shooting a miserable 58.6% from the free throw line.

North Texas has kept their home games to lower paces on average. I expect them to be able to slow this one down.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of the MONTH* The Missouri State Bears have underachieved so far in the MVC, but they are definitely the better team here. Missouri State is the team that plays very slowly, and I like playing unders when I am trusting the better team (with a good defense) to slow the game down.

Eight of Missouri State's last ten games have finished with a combined total of 124 points or less. They rank 321st out of 351 in the country in tempo. They also rank 9th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 304th in FTA/FGA so they don't spend much time at the line. 

Southern Illinois has had some higher scoring games of late, but that was against the faster paced teams in the league. Those were also teams who can't defend nearly as well as Missouri State. Those higher scoring games have pushed this total up to several points above where it should be.

I think this one stays in the 120's.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas started the season playing slower, but they have gone back to playing quicker again as the season has gone along. Sometimes we see things like this where a team tries to change the way they play, but eventually they end up back with what they are accustomed to.

Kent State and Central Michigan just played three weeks ago. That game finished at 154 points, and it was played at a pace of 75 possessions (very quick). There were only a total of 32 free throws in that game, and the teams shooting percentages were nothing out of the ordinary.

Kent State and Central Michigan are both subpar defenses, and with a quick tempo this should get past the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The first time these two met this year the final score was 104-99. I'm not here to predict anything like that again, but I do think this total is too low.

Montana State and Southern Utah are both teams that get to the free throw line a lot, and they both shoot a very high percentage from the line. Both teams foul a bunch as well, and that should mean a lot of trips to the free throw line once again here. 

Montana State ranks 245th in the country in defensive efficiency. Southern Utah ranks 332nd in defensive efficiency. 

Southern Utah is a six point dog here, and they have proven to foul constantly late in the game when they are down. If Montana State does lead late, this will help the over significantly.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange have played the fewest bench minutes of any team in the country out of 351 teams. Jim Boeheim's team has a really short bench, and they are expected to be without Matthew Moyer in this one. That should mean Syracuse wants to slow the game down even more than normal to keep their starters fresh.

Pittsburgh is moving at the second slowest pace on offense in the ACC behind only Virginia. The Panthers are without star forward Ryan Luther, and that is a huge hit to the offense.

These two played less than two weeks ago and the final was 59-45. The tempo was only 59 possessions. Another game with a tempo of about 60 and a projected total in the 116-118 range makes sense to me.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Ohio Redhawks have been the slowest paced team in the MAC so far this year when you go by length of possession on offense alone. Eastern Michigan has been the slowest paced team overall in the MAC. 

We get a meeting between two teams who like to slow things down and win the grind it out type games. They have had to play teams like Buffalo and Bowling Green who push the pace in a big way. This game is a chance for them to get back to doing what they want. 

Both teams have significantly better numbers on defense than offense as well. This projects as a low scoring tight game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Georgia State and Texas State have played eight times all time. All of those meetings have come since 2014. None of those games have finished regulation with a combined score higher than 124. 

These teams both prefer to play at a slow pace, but they are playing in a league where there are several teams who push the tempo. Texas State actually ranks 348th in the nation in tempo (out of 351), so they are extremely slow.

Both teams are good at forcing turnovers, and Texas State has been bad at taking acre of the basketball so it is likely they'll waste a decent amount of possessions here. 

I don't see any reason to expect things to change from their past history. Another low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Toronto Raptors host the Utah Jazz on Friday night. Utah has Rudy Gobert back in the lineup now, and he's one of the best defensive players in the NBA. That changes the look of this Jazz team. 

Utah is without Rodney Hood for this game. Hood is the team's second leading scorer at 16.7 points per game. The Jazz have struggled mightily on offense in their last two games without him. Utah scored 90 points against Atlanta and then scored only 98 in an overtime game at Detroit. 

Toronto is fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the year. The Raptors are second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in home games this year. Utah is third worst in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the road. 

All 3 referees for this game are under refs in their careers: Forte has a 53.8% under rate, Callahan has a 52.5% under rate, and Goble has a 54% under rate. That's a nice bonus here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels know how to control the tempo. St. Mary's ranks 341st in tempo. They were 350th last year. This is a system where they are going to use up the clock and find the best shot possible.

St. Mary's has a great offense, but their numbers are at least a little bit propped up by playing against some terrible defenses in the West Coast Conference. Teams like Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount aren't guarding anyone. 

BYU has turned itself into a slower paced team this year, and they are much better on defense. The Cougars are 32nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams are tremendous at grabbing defensive rebounds. Second chance opportunities should be rare here. The first game between these two went into overtime (74-64 final) and there were only a total of 13 offensive rebounds. There were only 29 free throws as well. Both of these teams are great at defending without fouling.

With the tempo I expect, I like the value here on the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wichita State Shockers have played 19 games so far this year. How many of them have stayed under this number? Zero. Wichita State's lowest final total this year has been 131 points against a good Baylor Bears defense.

UCF is ranked fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency on the year, but they definitely aren't the fifth best defense in the country without star 7'6 center Tacko Fall in the middle of the paint swatting away and changing shots. Fall was injured a couple games ago, and he is out for the season. 

In UCF's first game without Tacko Fall, they allowed 69 points and 1.08 points per possession (they are allowing 0.897 for the year) to a lowly South Florida offense. South Florida has averaged 0.87 points per possession in AAC play overall. UCF's defense is still good, but they are no longer elite.

UCF's offense will be better now that B.J. Taylor is back and healthy.

Wichita State isn't as good on defense this year. The Shockers were 1st in the country in defensive efficiency two years ago. They were 13th last year. So far this year they are 60th in defensive efficiency. 

Wichita State is playing quicker as well. They should push the tempo enough and score better than expected against UCF without Fall.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys rank 9th in the nation in shortest average time of possession on offense. They are looking to run, and that won't change in this one. Nevada is 61st quickest on offense.

The last two meetings between these two teams have both played at a pace of 84 possessions. That's about as fast as you'll ever see a game played, especially in conference play. Nevada is more than willing to run with Wyoming here.

Both teams excel at getting to the free throw line. Wyoming is 9th in the nation in FTA/FGA and Nevada is 61st in this mark as well. 

This game spread sits right at the fouling range where if the oddsmakers are right and Nevada wins by 5 or 6, you can expect a lot of fouling late. Wyoming has shown they will foul down a bunch late in previous losses this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters have been a good under team in recent years. They aren't very efficient on offense, but they are always good on defense.

UC Irvine lost their leading scorer from last year in Luke Nelson. This is a team that has no clear star on the offensive end. They are one of the two or three best in the Big West on defense though. 

UC Riverside has really struggled on offense all year. Riverside has been held to 57 points in two of their last four games, and a very small number from them here wouldn't be a surprise.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in taking care of the basketball. That means a lot of wasted possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Nebraska Cornhuskers defense has been tremendous this year. Nebraska ranks 25th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. On the other side, Rutgers is averaging a miserable 0.88 points per possession in Big Ten play. 

The Scarlet Knights have been held to 59 points or less in regulation in Big Ten play in 5 of their 8 games. Rutgers is competitive this year because they are much improved on defense. Rutgers is 19th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 15th in the nation in effective field goal percentage.

Both teams prefer a slow tempo, and I expect this one to be a rock fight.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* UNC Greensboro has been great at controlling the pace of play so far this year. Greensboro is 336th out of 351 in the nation in tempo. They have been excellent on defense and subpar on offense all year. 

Furman is 2nd in the SoCon in defensive efficiency. Greensboro is 3rd in that same category. Furman has been playing to the pace of their opponent so far this year, and that's a good thing for the under here.

All five of Greensboro's last five games have stayed under this number in regulation. That includes an amazing 130 point total against The Citadel, who gets games into the 170's and 180's most of the time.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mercer Bears are expected to be without star Ria'n Holland in this one. Holland is averaging 19.0 points per game on the year. No one else on the team averages more than 10.9 points per game. Holland has a wrist injury and a beat writer said the team expects him to miss at least two weeks. 

Mercer plays at an extremely slow pace. Without Holland, this is an extremely limited offense. They'll rely on the 3 ball to be falling, but E Tennessee State is allowing opponents to shoot only 27.6% from 3 point range in Southern Conference action.

E Tenn State has allowed 61 points or fewer in each of their last four games. Mercer has scored 56 or less in regulation three times in conference play. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Oklahoma State Cowboys go to Lubbock to take on Texas Tech on Tuesday night. Texas Tech is coming off an ugly loss at Iowa State. Look for Chris Beard's team to be ready to play here.

Texas Tech is fourth in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Red Raiders have slowed their pace on offense by almost a full second per possession inside conference play. I fully expect them to try to slow this game down, and when you have a great defense and a big favorite who is looking to slow the game down, this is a high total.

Oklahoma State has had two low scoring games in the Big 12 against Baylor and Texas. Those two teams are ranked 8th and 10th in the league in tempo. Who is 9th? Texas Tech. Texas Tech has had only one game in the Big 12 go over this total despite playing some very fast paced teams.

My numbers have this one quite a bit lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ball State Cardinals offense has fallen off drastically in recent weeks. Ball State is averaging only 0.979 points per possession in MAC play. Ball State has seen 9 of their last 10 games stay under this total. 

Kent State's offense hasn't been very good either. The Golden Flashes have scored 70 points or less in 7 of their last 10 contests. 

Both teams are playing considerably slower than they did a year ago. Neither team has been very good at getting to the line this year. 

With this being a conference game between two offenses who have struggled and two teams who are playing slower this year, I think this one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are one of the best under teams in the Big 12. Baylor ranked as the slowest paced team in the league last year. They are second slowest so far this season. 

Baylor is excellent on defense as well. The Bears are 21st in defensive efficiency in the country. Baylor defends without fouling much at all. The Bears do struggle with turnovers on offense, and Kansas State ranks in the top 25 in forcing turnovers.

Kansas State plays at a medium tempo. Their ability to mix up defenses often slows the opposition down even more. 

Two of the three meetings between these two last year stayed under this number. Two of the games paced at 62 possessions and 59 possessions. Expect another slow paced game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes have been great this season. Chris Holtmann is doing one of the best coaching jobs in the country. This is a team that was picked to be near the bottom of the Big Ten. So far, they are unbeaten in the conference.

Ohio State is doing it with both great shooting and elite defense. They are 11th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. Ohio State is doing a great job defending without fouling. They are also very good at getting defensive rebounds. 

Nebraska has struggled on offense inside the Big Ten for the last few years. I think they'll continue to struggle on offense this year in this conference. Nebraska was putting up better than 1.1 points per possession in non-conference play. They are at 0.99 points per possession inside the Big Ten.

Both teams play at a pace slightly below average. Both are better on defense than offense. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons host the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday afternoon. 

Brooklyn started the season playing at an extremely quick tempo. They were among the top three in the NBA in tempo. Of late that has changed a lot. Brooklyn ranks 15th in the NBA in tempo in their last 8 games. The Nets rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. They are playing too much one on one and not moving the basketball. On the other end, Brooklyn is sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency during this span.

Detroit ranks 19th in tempo in the last eight games. The Pistons are 21st in offensive efficiency during that time.

The under is 36-14-1 in the Pistons last 51 after allowing 100 or more last game. The best day for unders in the NBA long term has been Sunday's, by a large margin. I'll take the under at this high number.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NBA Game of the MONTH* The Portland Blazers host the Dallas Mavs on Saturday night. Both of these teams are far different than they were earlier this season. 

Portland started the season as a team that was one of the best defenses in the NBA for the first month or two of the year. That has changed in a big way. 

Dallas started the season playing slowly and struggling badly on offense. With the emergence of Dennis Smith Jr. this offense has been much better of late, and they have sped things up.

In their last ten games, Dallas ranks second in the NBA in offensive efficiency and Portland ranks 5th. Defensively, the Mavericks are 21st in the league and the Blazers are 24th in that time span. Both teams are playing at almost exactly the league average tempo during that time.

Portland has scored 110 points ore more in 8 of their last 10 games. The Mavericks have scored 114 points or more in six of their last nine games.

I think this number is too low based on how these teams played earlier in the season. The number hasn't been adjusted enough.

Take the over big.

*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners average possession length on offense is 5th shortest of anyone in the country. They are moving extremely quickly and getting up a lot of shots. UTSA also commits an extremely high amount of fouls on the defensive end. They are among the top 15 in the country in most fouls committed. This obviously contributes to a lot of scoring as well.

UTEP is among the top 100 (out of 351) in the country in most fouls committed too. There should be a bunch of trips to the stripe here. 

UTEP is allowing 80.75 points per game in their last four contests. Their defense has gotten worse as the season has gone along. UTSA has allowed 73 points or more in each of their last four games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears have played all of their Big 12 games so far this year to 140 points or lower.

Kansas is a tremendous offense, but the Jayhawks and Bears have a history of playing lower scoring games against each other. Baylor knows they can't run with Kansas here. The last four times these two have played- the highest scoring game was 141 points. 

Baylor's offensive efficiency is way down this year, but they are still solid on defense. This number is too high.

Take the under.