Sports Picks & Predictions

Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-07-23	Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 255		128-119	Win	100	17 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Do I really want to bet a Pacers/Bucks under? No. This number is so high though. It is the highest total in an NBA game this year. This is a strange mid afternoon start time in Las Vegas on a neutral court. It is a semifinal game in the NBA In Season Tournament. The players do seem to care at least a decent amount about the In Season Tournament. The Bucks defense has improved a bit in recent weeks and the team has been talking a lot about needing to step up defensively in a game like this. Indiana plays quickly and they are a good offense. The Pacers recent games being so high scoring has pushed this total up quite a bit. Earlier this season these two met and the total was 239.5. This is a huge adjustment for a game being played a little less than a month later. The first game hit 250 points with good shooting numbers. I'll take the under here.
12-06-23	Valparaiso v. Central Michigan UNDER 141		67-71	Win	100	16 h 16 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Valparaiso has a new coach this year and they are struggling badly on offense. This team is 348th in shot selection out of 363 teams in the country so far this year. Valpo is much improved on defense though. They are contesting shots very well. Central Michigan is 232nd in the country in tempo. Valparaiso is 152nd. The pace of the game could be relatively quick, but I think the efficiencies will be poor here. C Michigan is 299th in shot selection in the country. This team shoots it poorly and turns it over far too often. Take the under here.
12-05-23	Western Michigan v. Notre Dame UNDER 130		65-86	Loss	-110	16 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are playing a very slow controlled style under Micah Shrewsberry. They are 336th in average possession length in the country. Notre Dame doesn't yet have the scorers to be ultra efficient on offense like Shrewsberry's Penn State teams, but he is a smart coach and he'll have them playing the right style until they do. Western Michigan is a team who turns the ball over at a very high rate. The Broncos also jack up a bunch of three pointers. They are shooting 36.3% from long range on the year, and I fully expect this number to drop. This is a team that shot 33 and 32% the last couple seasons. Notre Dame is top 100 in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage offense. They are bottom 100 in offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage offense. Western Michigan likes to play slowly too. This should be a game played in the halfcourt. Both of these teams are good at defending without fouling. Take the under.
12-04-23	Iowa v. Purdue UNDER 165		68-87	Win	100	18 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Purdue Boilermakers have played quicker in the non-conference portion of their schedule several times in the past, and they have always slowed things back down quite a bit when the Big Ten season gets here. I think they are pretty likely to do the same thing here. Iowa plays really fast and the Hawkeyes are a great offense. I understand why the total is very high. The Hawkeyes have played a lot of very fast paced opponents with questionable defenses though. The Hawkeyes scored just 67 against an Oklahoma defense that is 10th in defensive efficiency in the country. Purdue ranks 9th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Boilermakers obviously have the height and interior presence on defense. Iowa isn't as good from long range this year. I think this will be a high scoring game, but this total is so extreme that I have to side with the under. Take the under.
12-02-23	Cal-Irvine v. Utah State UNDER 141		69-79	Loss	-110	18 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Utah State Aggies are trying their best to get to the basket on offense. It has worked pretty well, but UC Irvine has a long history of defending the paint very well. The Anteaters are coached by a defensive minded coach in Russell Turner. I expect Irvine to contest these Utah State drives into the paint well in this one. UC Irvine has faced the 34th toughest slate of offenses on the season thus far. They have faced just the 157th toughest slate of defenses on the season thus far. UC Irvine's stats are skewed a bit right now based on the toughness of the offenses they have had to face. The tempo should be no faster than average here. Both teams have a pretty high turnover rate, so I see plenty of wasted possessions. Take the under.
12-02-23	Cal Poly v. Idaho UNDER 134		70-85	Loss	-105	25 h 12 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Cal Poly Mustangs toyed with playing a quicker tempo earlier in the season, but they have gone back to slowing it down in a big way of late. They are 344th in the nation in average possession length, and that is after starting out playing pretty quick. They have slowed things to a crawl in recent games. Idaho has a new coach this year, and they are 280th in overall tempo this year. The Vandals are not likely to be able to take advantage of Cal Poly's biggest weakness on defense (fouling too much). Idaho is 358th in FTA/FGA on the year. Idaho is a very poor shooting team on the whole too. Idaho's recent games show they have slowed down the typically fast Denver and UC San Diego. I think the tempo trends point to the full season data being too quick on the pace here. Take the under.
12-02-23	CS-Northridge v. Northern Colorado OVER 151.5		71-75	Loss	-110	13 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Cal State Northridge Matadors are playing a new style of basketball under Coach Newman. They are picking up the pace in a big way and attacking the rim hard on offense. They are getting to the basket often and drawing quite a few fouls too. Northridge is now up against a Northern Colorado team who is weak when it comes to interior defense. The Matadors should get good looks inside here. Northern Colorado likes to shoot the outside jumper. The Bears haven't shot the ball as well as I would expect them to so far this year. I think they'll improve. Northridge likely has a hard time keeping them contained here. Northridge is 39th in the country in overall tempo. Northern Colorado is 72nd. This one should be a track meet. Take the over.
12-01-23	George Washington v. South Carolina UNDER 150		67-89	Loss	-110	17 h 7 m	Show
4 Star Play Under George Washington has had some very high scoring games this year, but those games were against teams that were nothing like South Carolina. George Washington has played some very fast paced opponents this year. They haven't played a team in the bottom 125 teams in the country in tempo all season. That will change here. South Carolina is 306th in tempo out of 362 teams. Lamont Parris' teams have a strong preference for slowing things down. George Washington is shooting 37% from 3 point range this year. This is a team that shot 33 and 32% from 3 point range the last two seasons. They are 335th in the country in open 3 rate. They should cool off from long range eventually. South Carolina is also shooting better from 3 than I would expect. The Gamecocks have shot 31 and 32% from 3 point range the last two seasons, but they are at 37% this year. Neither team has a history of fouling much and they are both excellent on the defensive glass. Take the under.
12-01-23	St. Thomas v. Western Michigan UNDER 135		66-51	Win	100	15 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Western Michigan Broncos are 292nd in the country in tempo. St. Thomas is 354th out of 362 in the country in tempo. This should be played in the halfcourt. St. Thomas worked extensively in the offseason on improving on defense. It has helped them improve some on that end this year. Andrew Rohde was their go to guy that the offense ran through last year, and now he is a Virginia Cavalier. This offense isn't nearly as efficient. They almost never get offensive rebounds or get to the line, and they aren't as good shooting from the outside so far this year. Western Michigan is atrocious from the FT line (58%). The Broncos are shooting 39.4% from 3 point range, but I see no reason to believe they can shoot that well in the long run. They have been 33, 33, and 32% from three point range the last three seasons. A slow pace and not many second chances or free throws. Take the under.
11-30-23	Illinois State v. Illinois-Chicago UNDER 135		69-64	Win	100	18 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UIC Flames have finally improved a lot on the defensive end this year. Luke Yaklich is a defensive minded coach who has done some great work with defenses in the past (at Michigan and Texas). UIC is 11th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Illinois State is 343rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage on offense. The RedBirds have played against only the 305th toughest slate of defenses so far this year. UIC is the best defense that Illinois State has played thus far. Illinois State is above average on defense, and they have been excellent at forcing turnovers. UIC is 240th in the nation in average possession length. Illinois State is 224th in average possession length. The tempo should be relatively slow here. I see this as a sloppy game where the defenses have the upper hand. Take the under.
11-29-23	Seattle University v. Utah Valley UNDER 138		72-78	Loss	-110	21 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Utah Valley Wolverines have a completely new team this year. They returned just 4.4% of their minutes from last year. Utah Valley has a new coach too after Mark Madsen left for Cal. Utah Valley's tempo has slowed down a lot this year. They are using about a second more per possession, and they are an extremely poor shooting team. They are just 55.4% from the free throw line through their first four Division I games. Seattle is 49th in the effective field goal percentage defense. They are also playing a good amount slower than a year ago. This is a team that has held opponents to very tough shots. They are 22nd best in the country in shot selection allowed so far this year. These are two good defensive rebounding teams. Take the under here.
11-29-23	Davidson v. Charlotte UNDER 127.5		85-81	Loss	-110	5 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Charlotte 49ers spoke of playing quicker and playing a different style under Aaron Fearne this year. They haven't done that. Charlotte is once again one of the slowest paced teams in the country. The 49ers highest scoring game this year (regulation) was 130 points. Five of the six games have finished regulation with a combined total of 122 points or less. Charlotte is getting worse shots this year than last year. They are 240th in shot selection in the country. They are 311th in spacing on offense. Charlotte is getting almost no offensive rebounds. Davidson is 311th in tempo, so they prefer to play very slowly too. Both teams excel at defending without fouling, so we shouldn't see too many free throws here. With the line move up today, I have to go to the under in this one. Take the under.
11-28-23	Southern Illinois v. Indiana State OVER 142		48-77	Loss	-110	17 h 19 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Indiana State Sycamores have a great offensive minded coach in Josh Schertz. His style of play is pushing the tempo to the maximum and getting up a bunch of three point jumpers or getting to the hoop. There are virtually no mid range jumpers in his offense. Indiana State's rim and 3 rate is right up there with Alabama. Indiana State is first in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They are 14th quickest in the nation in average possession length. This Sycamores team brought in a great long range shooter in Isaiah Swope from Southern Indiana. He is 17/35 from 3 point range so far this year. The Southern Illinois Salukis are a slower paced team, but the Salukis are improved on offense so far this year. They are top 40 in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. Southern Illinois lacks a rim protector and I think Indiana State can get to the basket against them. Take the over.
11-28-23	Notre Dame v. South Carolina UNDER 133.5		53-65	Win	100	17 h 18 m	Show
4 Star Play Under These two teams are 290th and 312th in the nation in tempo. This game should be played almost exclusively in the halfcourt offensive sets. South Carolina is shooting 39% from 3 point range so far this year. The Gamecocks shot 31% and 32% from long range in the last two seasons. I think their numbers will regress to the mean. South Carolina's defense has been pretty good this year. The Gamecocks have one big weakness and that is fouling too much. Notre Dame is bottom 50 in the country in getting to the free throw line. Notre Dame has a good coach in Shrewsberry, but he doesn't have the talent in place to have a strong offense yet. This is a team that has to play very slow and try to win with solid defense and taking care of the basketball. Take the under.
11-26-23	Coppin State v. La Salle UNDER 134.5		62-81	Loss	-110	10 h 54 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Coppin State Eagles have a new coach and they are playing completely differently this year. Coppin State was 19th in the nation in tempo last year. The Eagles were running at every single opportunity. Fast forward to this season and Coppin State sits at 304th in tempo in the country. Coppin State is also dead last in the country in offensive efficiency. They are taking some terrible shots. Coppin State has been held to 49 points or fewer in four of their six games this season. La Salle has been about average in terms of tempo this year. The Explorers under Fran Dunphy have typically not run up the score too badly late in games when they have a lead. They should be up throughout in this game. Take the under here.
11-25-23	North Carolina A&T v. Samford OVER 157		83-101	Win	100	12 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The North Carolina A&T Aggies rank dead last (362nd) in the country in defensive efficiency. The Aggies have allowed 88 points or more in all but one game so far this year. They just allowed 96 points to Merrimack and 88 points to Alabama State in their last two games. Both of those teams are inefficient offenses who usually struggle to score. Samford is a very fast paced team (45th in overall tempo) and the Bulldogs like to use full court pressure to speed the game up. They have scored 89 points or more in three of their last four games. I think they put up a big number in this game. Both of these teams have given up a lot of second chance points on the year. Both teams have been above average from the free throw line as well. Two teams in the top 60 in tempo and I expect a high scoring game. Take the over.
11-24-23	Ohio v. George Washington UNDER 154.5		94-99	Loss	-110	17 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The George Washington Revolutionaries and the Ohio Bobcats meet in a neutral site battle in the Bahamas on Friday night. George Washington has been white shot shooting the basketball so far this year. After shooting either 32 or 33% from three point range the last three years in a row, they are shooting 38.3% from long range so far this year. They haven't even been getting open looks either. George Washington ranks 338th in the nation in open 3 rate so far this year. This team isn't likely to keep shooting the ball so well. Ohio is an above average defense. The Bobcats are 19th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. I don't think they are that good, but they are a pretty good defense. Ohio is an average paced team. George Washington has been playing teams that are absolute burners and this is likely to be a slower paced game. This is an early season neutral site game and these have trended under in the long run. Take the under.
11-24-23	Middle Tennessee v. Illinois-Chicago UNDER 132		40-70	Win	100	14 h 25 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The MTSU Blue Raiders have played four games against Division One teams this year. The highest scoring game of those finished at 131 points. One of the games finished at 129 combined points after an overtime. MTSU is consistently playing excellent defense and settling for a lot of poor mid range jumpers on offense. UIC is getting better defensively under defensive minded coach Luke Yaklich. UIC has an elite shot blocker down low in Toby Okani. The Flames have been busy playing teams who want to run which has skewed their totals higher in the early going. Now, they play a team who wants to slow things down and turn it into a halfcourt battle. An early season neutral site game- these have skewed under in the long term. Take the under.
11-24-23	Jacksonville v. Robert Morris OVER 129		74-65	Win	100	3 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Over This number has been knocked down several points, and I'm going to side with the over. Jacksonville is playing much faster than they did a year ago. They played a 70 possession game and put up 85 points against GA Southern. Robert Morris put up a respectable 68 points in a loss to defensive minded Wisconsin. The Colonials went under this total by one point against Towson, but Towson is among the five slowest teams in the country. Both teams are bad on the defensive glass. Second chance opportunities could be crucial in this one. They both foul a lot as well. Both teams shoot a high percentage from the free throw line. Take the over.
11-24-23	Southeastern Louisiana v. Western Michigan UNDER 142.5		67-68	Win	100	13 h 58 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The SE Louisiana Lions have slowed their pace down drastically this year. SE Louisiana is 328th in the nation in average possession length. Last year they were 79th. SE Louisiana was able to slow down a very fast paced Santa Clara team in their last game. Western Michigan has to slow the pace down consistently. The Broncos just don't have a good enough offense to win many high scoring contests. W Michigan is 332nd in the nation in average possession length. This game is being played at Northwest Florida State College Arena as part of a neutral site tournament. This has been a good venue for unders in the past. Take the under.
11-23-23	Michigan State v. Arizona UNDER 148		68-74	Win	100	14 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Arizona Wildcats are a good offense, but their offensive numbers are skewed a bit right now because of who they have faced. Arizona has played three teams outside the top 300 in effective field goal percentage defense. They have only played one good defense this year and that was Duke. Duke is 73rd in effective field goal percentage defense. Michigan State is much better at 7th. The Spartans block a lot of shots and really defend the paint well. Michigan State is 200th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Spartans aren't going to be able to get easy looks against a very tall Arizona team either. Arizona is 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Michigan State is likely to want to slow this game down. They are 329th in tempo this year. Arizona will try to run. I think Arizona's transition offense will be less efficient in this one than they have been the rest of the year. This is a neutral court that is usually a hockey arena. That is long term a positive for the under. Take the under here.
11-23-23	Tulane v. California OVER 152.5		84-81	Win	100	10 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Over I see a lot of paths pointing to a lot of points being scored in this game. Tulane is great at forcing the tempo of the game. The Green Wave are 24th quickest in the country in average possession length. Tulane has been great at getting to the free throw line every year under Ron Hunter. Cal just put UTEP on the line 37 times yesterday, and the Golden Bears are likely to commit a lot of fouls in this one. Cal is an average paced team on offense. They have played several teams who like to stall, but they are up against a very quick paced team today. One of Cal's biggest strengths is getting second chance points off the offensive rebounds. Tulane is a very weak rebounding team. This line has moved down because it is a neutral floor game, but I think it has moved down too much. Neither defense is all that good, and the offenses have key advantages. Take the over. Note- I would bet this as high as 155 if it goes up.
11-22-23	Fairleigh Dickinson v. Queens NC OVER 152		84-97	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Fairleigh Dickinson Knights are now coached by Jack Castleberry. He promised before the season to keep this program playing at a very fast pace. He has kept his program thus far. The Knights have played at the 7th fastest pace of any team in the country. Castleberry not only coached under Tobin Anderson, but he also was an assistant at The Citadel under the ultra fast paced Duggar Baucom. This team should keep running and gunning. Their big weakness on defense is not being able to grab defensive rebounds. Queens always wants to run. They have played four teams in a row who play at an average or slower pace. That has kept their scores down of late. They now face a team who also wants to run and play very quick. Queens is only shooting 29.8% from 3 point range, and they shot 34.8% from 3 last year. I think their shooting numbers will improve in time. Take the over here.
11-22-23	CS Sacramento v. Austin Peay UNDER 132.5		71-74	Loss	-110	13 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Austin Peay Governors have slowed down their pace to just 328th in the country in overall tempo. Austin Peay ranks 350th out of 362 teams in shot selection so far this year. They are taking a bunch of bad jump shots. They are living in the mid range contested jumper area so far this season. Sacramento State is 244th in shot selection. The Hornets are 293rd in overall tempo this year, and Coach Patrick has consistently had his teams play very slowly. I don't think either team wants to run in this one. Both teams turn it over a bunch so I see a lot of wasted possessions. This is a neutral floor game played early in the day. That has been a bonus for under bettors in the long run. Take the under.
11-21-23	Cal-Riverside v. Green Bay UNDER 133		74-68	Loss	-110	20 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Green Bay Phoenix have turned every game into a halfcourt sloppy game this year. Green Bay is stalling to the max right now. Green Bay is 359th out of 362 in average possession length. The UC Riverside Highlanders are consistently a slow paced team that is better on the defensive end than the offensive end under Mike Magpayo. They have finished in the bottom 50 in average possession length each season with him as coach. This is a neutral site game and these early season neutral site games have skewed toward the under in the last decade. Take the under.
11-21-23	Florida International v. Loyola Marymount UNDER 155		60-61	Win	100	8 h 59 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Taking an under with FIU isn't necessarily a comfortable experience, but I think this one is set a little too high given the circumstances. This is a neutral site game being played in the Cayman Islands. Neutral site games have trended under in the long run, and early tipoff times (11 am eastern here) have trended stronger to the under than the rest of the neutral site games. FIU does play quickly, but they don't shoot the ball well. FIU was 213th in offensive efficiency last year and they are 233rd so far this year. Loyola Marymount is a slightly slower than average paced team. Loyola has had some high games this year because opponents have been shooting lights out from 3. Loyola's 3 point defense the last few years has been much better than they've started this year. FIU has been very weak from 3 point range the last few years too. Early start with a really high total. I'll take the under.
11-20-23	Stonehill v. Tex A&M Commerce UNDER 142.5		86-97	Loss	-110	6 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Texas A&M Commerce Lions are 336th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. Stonehill ranks 335th in that same number. Stonehill has given up massive points against St. Joe's, UConn, and Kentucky in their last three games. Texas A&M Commerce and their weak offense are unlikely to put up a big number. Stonehill's recent games being so high against very good fast paced teams has inflated this number too much in my opinion. Stonehill played one slower paced team (Army) and it was 57-44 in that game. Texas A&M Commerce is 307th in average possession length, so they are looking to slow the game down. Take the under here.
11-19-23	Eastern Illinois v. Miami-OH UNDER 139.5		64-76	Loss	-110	10 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Eastern Illinois Panthers are 332nd in the nation in tempo. Marty Simmons has his teams wanting to slow the pace down year after year. They have to slow things down a ton right now because they just don't have any go to scorers. Eastern Illinois struggled to a 48-46 win over Coppin State yesterday. Miami Ohio is a medium paced team that has shot the ball better than expected so far this year. The Redhawks do slow the pace when they have the lead and they are clear favorites here. I think this one is a few points too high. Take the under.
11-19-23	SIU-Edwardsville v. South Alabama UNDER 130		74-86	Loss	-110	9 h 51 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The South Alabama Jaguars rank 329th in the country in tempo. The SIU Edwardsville Cougars rank 353rd in the nation in tempo. This game should be played almost entirely in the halfcourt. SIU Edwardsville has gradually gotten better on defense every year in the last three seasons. This team is focused on slowing the game down and winning with defense. They were 129th, 102nd, and now 73rd in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Three of their four games against Division I teams this year have finished 118 points or lower. South Alabama has played multiple teams that want track meets which has made their games higher scoring. This is the slowest opponent they have played yet. Take the under.
11-19-23	Utah Valley v. Southern Miss UNDER 139		67-65	Win	100	8 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Utah Valley has a new coach this year in Todd Phillips. They have slowed their pace quite a bit so far this year. The Wolverines are 228th in effective field goal percentage offense and 30th in defense. Southern Miss is a medium paced team. The Golden Eagles do take a lot of bad mid range jumpers though. Southern Miss only put up 64 points on William Carey in a fast paced game. They scored 54 against Akron. This is an early season neutral site game and those have been good to under bettors in the long haul. Take the under.
11-18-23	Weber State v. Yale UNDER 138.5		75-65	Loss	-105	17 h 0 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Weber State Wildcats have been very consistent at slowing the pace of the game down both last year and so far this season. Weber State is 357th in the country in average possession length so far this year. Yale is 335th in average possession length. This game is played on a neutral floor in Canada. If these two teams keep playing at their preferred pace, it will take either very high shooting percentages or a ref show to send this one past the posted total. Both teams were in the top 11 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage last year. I expect second chances to be tough to come by. Take the under.
11-18-23	Coppin State v. Eastern Illinois UNDER 136.5	Top	46-48	Win	100	3 h 59 m	Show
5 Star Top Play Under The Coppin State Eagles are nothing like last year's team. They were ultra fast paced last year and got into some very high scoring games. Coppin State finished last season 19th in overall tempo in the country. They are 257th so far this season. Coppin State is also very bad on offense. The Eagles are dead last in the nation in offensive efficiency. They have only topped 55 points one time this season. They have been held to 49 points or fewer in three of their five contests. Eastern Illinois plays at a slow pace coached by Marty Simmons. They are 339th in average possession length. The Panthers are 338th in offensive efficiency. This is a team that is involved in a lot of very low scoring contests. Take the under.
11-17-23	DePaul v. South Carolina UNDER 142		68-73	Win	100	22 h 35 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The South Carolina Gamecocks have shot 31 and 32% from three point range in the last two seasons. They are shooting 43.9% from long range so far this year. This will regress to the mean over time. South Carolina is 312th in overall tempo. This is a team that should play quite a few lower scoring games this year once their shooting numbers dip back down. DePaul was 67th fastest in tempo last year in the country. They have dialed back the pace quite a bit this year. The Blue Demons are 251st on the season so far. This is an early season neutral court game in the Bahamas. These can have tricky shooting backdrops and have trended toward the under. Take the under.
11-17-23	Coppin State v. Miami-OH UNDER 141		48-76	Win	100	16 h 25 m	Show
3 Stay Play Under Coppin State has a new coach and a completely different style of play this year. They were 19th in overall tempo last year. They are sitting at 234th in overall tempo this season so far. Coppin State is 362nd (last) in the country in offensive efficiency. Miami are an average or slightly slower team in terms of tempo. The Redhawks are terrible on the offensive glass, which helps mitigate Coppin State's biggest weakness on defense (defensive rebounding). I have this number several points lower. Take the under.
11-17-23	Abilene Christian v. San Jose State UNDER 134.5		77-71	Loss	-110	13 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The San Jose State Spartans are improving a lot on defense under Tim Miles. They were 79th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. So far this year, they are 39th. They also rank 315th in average possession length. They aren't in any hurry. Abilene Christian always has a good aggressive defense that forces a lot of turnovers. The one negative about their defense is they do foul too much. Abilene Christian's offense settles for a lot of poor jump shots. This game is being played in the Virgin Islands at a gym where the under has done well. Take the under.
11-16-23	William & Mary v. Nebraska-Omaha UNDER 149		83-89	Loss	-110	22 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The William & Mary Tribe were 352nd and 284th in offensive efficiency in the last two years. They have shot the ball well in their first couple games, but this team is unlikely to be able to keep this up. They haven't played good defenses, and they have played teams who are happy to run. Omaha has shown they want to slow the game down even though they have been losing. The Mavericks don't want to get into a track meet here. They are 262nd in average possession length. This is played on a neutral court. Both teams are shooting a lot of long distance jumpers. If they are all falling this will go over, but neutral court unders early in the season have done well in the long run. The long jumpers are on average tougher to hit in a neutral site situation. Take the under.
11-16-23	Presbyterian v. North Florida OVER 144.5		81-69	Win	100	17 h 7 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Presbyterian Blue Hose are 23rd in average possession length so far this season. Presbyterian has sped up significantly from a year ago. They were #285 last season. Presbyterian played two teams who aren't very fast paced in their games too so I don't think it was a fluke. Presbyterian is 2-0 and it is largely because no one can make a shot against them. Opponents are shooting 21.8% from 3 point range and 41% from two point range this season. Presbyterian has been awful at defending the 3 point line in the last few seasons. In fact, they were bottom 15 in the entire country in both of the last two seasons. They were also bottom half of the country in 2 point defense. North Florida is excellent from 3 point range. The Ospreys have been so good from 3 that they have been called "The Birds of Trey" by some. They shoot a bunch of long range jumpers, and I think they'll make their fair share in this one. North Florida was 346th in defensive efficiency last year. They struggle badly on the defensive boards and offensive rebounding is a strength of Presbyterian. Take the over.
11-15-23	Eastern Illinois v. Illinois State UNDER 143.5		61-69	Win	100	21 h 32 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Eastern Illinois and Illinois State played last year and the final was 54-49. I certainly don't expect it to be that low this time, but I think this total is quite a bit too high. Eastern Illinois has a bottom ten offense in the country. Marty Simmons' team just doesn't have any go to scorers. They also play at a far below average tempo. I'm not going to say their defense is good, but it is definitely better than it looks through two games. Their two opponents have been Illinois and Loyola Chicago. Both of those teams are very quick and are good offensively. Illinois State lost a 80-71 game played to 77 possessions against St. Louis. St. Louis is all about running. The RedBirds of Illinois State were 300th in tempo last year, and I think KenPom and others are projecting the pace too quick in this game at 72 possessions. Last year's game was 62 possessions. I'll try to take advantage of these two playing fast paced teams and inflating the total here. Take the under here.
11-14-23	CS-Northridge v. Chicago State OVER 145		74-64	Loss	-110	19 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Cal State Northridge Matadors are playing at a much faster tempo this year under a new coach. Coach Newman has his team getting out in transition as often as possible. Northridge led for much of the game against Stanford and scored 79 points. They then put up 76 at Idaho. They will keep pushing the pace here. Chicago State hasn't played a team in the top 125 in the nation in tempo so far this year. Northridge is 27th so this is a big tempo jump. I think the Chicago State defense will be bottom 30 or 40 in the country this year. Chicago State has a history of committing a lot of fouls. Northridge is attacking the basket and not settling for long range jumpers. I think the pace will be enough here. Take the over.
11-14-23	Mercer v. Morehead State UNDER 135		66-74	Loss	-110	17 h 7 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Morehead State Eagles were beaten down by both Alabama and Purdue. That's more than understandable. A bunch of teams are going to get crushed by those two top teams. Morehead State's defensive numbers look bad right now, but I think they'll be very solid against the mid-major teams again this year. Morehead State historically does a great job on the defensive glass, and they don't foul very often either. Morehead State is 338th in average possession length. The Eagles are very good at controlling the pace. Mercer is also a slow paced team. The Bears are 295th in average possession length. Mercer lost 71-64 to Clark Atlanta (obviously not a Division One team) in their first game and beat Chicago State 66-61 in game two. Mercer is good defensively, but on offense they have struggled to find an identity. Last year's game between these two was played to just 60 possessions. I think we see another slow one here. Take the under.
11-14-23	Temple v. Drexel OVER 133.5		66-64	Loss	-110	4 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Temple Owls should be a better offense under Coach Adam Fisher this year. Temple is going to put up more shots from long range and Fisher thinks they have the guys to shoot the ball pretty well. Temple's pace is about 5 possessions per game quicker than it was a year ago at this time. The two offenses Temple has faced are among the very worst in the country. Maryland Eastern Shore and Navy are bottom 25 offenses in the country. Temple's defense will get a bigger test here. Drexel does a good job not turning the ball over and the Dragons are just mediocre on the defensive end. Temple has a height disadvantage and Drexel should score in the paint here. This number has dropped to the point where I have to side with the over. Take the over.
11-13-23	Michigan v. St. John's UNDER 155.5		89-73	Loss	-110	15 h 24 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This is an early season matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and the St. John's Red Storm. St. John's made a massive coaching hire in the offseason by bringing in Rick Pitino. Pitino does prefer to play quickly, but St. John's was first in tempo in the entire country last year. They certainly won't play as fast as a year ago. St. John's did score 90 points against Stony Brook in game one, but their exhibition games were pretty low scoring. They beat Rutgers 89-78 in double OT. They lost to Pace College (several guys were out in that game). Michigan has played two teams who are really bad defensively and like to play fast. The Wolverines high scoring games in the first two contests have pushed this total upward too much. I do think Michigan can be better defensively than they were a year ago. Madison Square Garden is the venue for this contest and it is a good under arena. Yes, I know St. John's is accustomed to playing here, but the under has hit in 64.5% of St. John's games at MSG in the last 15 years. Take the under.
11-12-23	Merrimack v. Maine UNDER 130		71-65	Loss	-110	12 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Merrimack Warriors have been a great defensive team under Joe Gallo. The zone press they use is actually to slow the game down. They are really good at controlling the style of play. Merrimack takes a lot of poor shots on offense, and if they don't get a bunch of steals and quick scores it can be very tough for them to score in the halfcourt. Maine was 259th in tempo last year. The Black Bears do force quite a few turnovers, but they aren't good at turning them into transition points. These two teams played a couple years ago and it was a 49-47 final. I'm not projecting this one to be that low, but I like it to be low scoring. Take the under.
11-12-23	Hornets v. Knicks UNDER 226.5		107-129	Loss	-110	8 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Charlotte Hornets have played a string of very high scoring teams in a row of late. The Hornets have taken on the Pacers, Mavericks, and then the Wizards twice in a row in their last four games. They now take on the New York Knicks who play a completely different style of basketball. New York is bottom five in the NBA in tempo. The Knicks are also top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Knicks aren't likely to get intro a track meet with the Hornets here. This is an extra early tipoff at Madison Square Garden. These Sunday early tip times have been good to under bettors in the long run in the NBA. Take the under.
11-11-23	Arkansas State v. Bowling Green OVER 152		75-81	Win	100	21 h 32 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Arkansas State Red Wolves new coach Bryan Hodgson talked all offseason about how fast they were going to play this year. They went out and proved in game one. They did the unthinkable and played a game to 81 possessions against the Wisconsin Badgers. They lost 105-76 in that one, but the fact that they got Wisconsin to play that quickly with them is impressive. Arkansas State now takes on Bowling Green. The Falcons have a new coach in Todd Simon. Simon's teams have routinely finished in the top 50 or 60 in tempo in the country. His teams are known for attacking the hoop and playing aggressive defense. Their opponents often get to the free throw line quite a bit. Look for a very quick pace in this one. Take the over.
11-10-23	Davidson v. Maryland UNDER 138.5		64-61	Win	100	17 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Maryland Terrapins play strong defense under Kevin Willard. This is a top 30 defense in the country. Maryland ranked 326th in the country in tempo last year. They moved at a slow pace again in their first game earlier this week. Davidson is a physical team that slows the pace down as well. The Wildcats were #294 in the country in tempo. Davidson isn't likely to push the issue here against a Big Ten opponent. This game is played on a neutral site. The Cherokee Center which is 28-17 to the under. Early netural site unders have been good in the long run in CBB. Take the under.
11-10-23	Wake Forest v. Georgia OVER 152		77-80	Win	100	17 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Georgia was absolutely flying up and down the floor in their season opener against Oregon. That game played to a blistering pace of 83 possessions. Georgia couldn't hit a shot from the floor or the FT line (17/30 from the charity stripe), but I expect their shooting numbers to be better against a weak Wake Forest defense. Wake Forest has pushed the pace a lot the last couple seasons. The Demon Deacons put up 101 points in a win over Elon in game one. It was concerning to allow 1.03 points per possession to a bad Elon offense in that one though. I think this one goes to 76 possessions or so and that means even mediocre shooting should put this over the total. Take the over.
11-10-23	Charlotte v. Liberty OVER 129		59-71	Win	100	2 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Liberty Flames and Charlotte 49ers meet late this afternoon in Charlotte at a "neutral" court. This is at the Spectrum Center which has not been an under venue at all. The money has come in on the under here. I do in general like neutral site unders, but this isn't a bad shooting backdrop and this number has moved too much. Charlotte has a new coach in Aaron Fearne. He said in the preseason they were focusing heavily on pushing the pace more this year (they were very slow a year ago) and getting a lot more second chance points. By crashing the offensive boards more it is a clear positive for the over in that it both creates second chance points for them and makes them have a worse transition defense. Liberty is a good team who has several shooters. The Flames can spread you out and move the ball around very well. The change in style isn't accounted for here. Take the over.
11-09-23	CS-Northridge v. Idaho OVER 150.5		76-73	Loss	-110	22 h 60 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Cal State Northridge Matadors have a new coach this year and they are going to play with extreme tempo. The Matadors are 12th in the country in tempo so far this year. The fast pace worked too. They were actually up 76-72 with 4 minutes left against Stanford before falling apart and losing 88-79. That was a nice showing for this Big West team against a Pac 12 big school. Idaho was beaten 84-59 by Washington State in their first game. The Vandals have been atrocious on defense the last few years, and I expect more of that this season. Washington State plays very slowly so I believe the Idaho tempo stats are a bit skewed right now. Alex Pribble is their new coach, and Pribble said he wanted to pick up the tempo this year. Here is a great chance for them to run with CS Northridge. Both of these teams have a penchant for fouling a lot so a bunch of free throws wouldn't be a surprise either. Take the over.
11-06-23	CS-Northridge v. Stanford OVER 142		79-88	Win	100	31 h 37 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Cal State Northridge Matadors are going to play nothing like they did a year ago. Northridge has a new coach in Andy Newman. Newman has preached a faster pace all through the offseason. He wants this team to play a fun brand of basketball and be high octane. They probably won't be very good at first, but I expect them to play very quickly. The Stanford offense will have some big edges at multiple spots on the floor here. Stanford is a veteran team this year and they have multiple scorers. Spencer Jones will be a matchup problem for the Matadors. Stanford's point guards are better this year and I expect them to get to the hoop here. The pace should be quick. Take the over.
11-06-23	Lafayette v. St. Joe's OVER 138		60-81	Win	100	27 h 4 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The St. Joe's Hawks were 74th in the nation in tempo last year. This team has been committed to playing quickly under Coach Lange the whole way. This team has good spacing and has been implementing a Rim and 3 strategy on offense. They return several good backcourt players who should be pretty reliable scorers. Lafayette has a new coach and an entirely different strategy this year. This team ranked 349th in tempo last year. Their new coach came from a smaller school and he was well known for faster tempo and efficient offenses. He even said before the season that they will play faster and be better on offense. Surprisingly, the coach even said he expects them to be worse on defense. Lafayette playing completely differently is important to this handicap. I expect a pretty fast pace. Take the over here.
11-06-23	USC Upstate v. South Carolina UNDER 141		53-82	Win	100	6 h 16 m	Show
3 Star Play Under South Carolina hosted USC Upstate last year and the final was 68-53 with a very slow pace of 59. South Carolina plays very slowly under Lamont Paris. It makes sense because he was under Bo Ryan before becoming a head coach. Paris' teams are good at controlling the pace and winning with a lack of turnovers and with solid defense. USC Upstate lost their best scorer from a year ago. USC Upstate developed a solid defense last year. The only thing they do too much is foul with their aggressiveness. South Carolina was bottom 40 in the country in getting to the line. I think this one is too high. Take the under.
10-30-23	Mavs v. Grizzlies UNDER 228.5		125-110	Loss	-110	8 h 51 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies meet tonight. Dallas has had two high scoring games this year so far, but the Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the league. Marcus Smart is a great defensive player, but his efficiency numbers on offense aren't likely to be very good especially with the Grizzlies shorthanded right now. With Smart and Jackson the Grizzlies have two of the very best defensive players in the league. I do think they can matchup better defensively with Dallas than most teams. The Mavericks have played fast so far this season, but I think that is at least partially because of who they have played against in those two games. Divisional unders early in the season have been great in the past decade. The referees in this one are a big plus for lower scoring. Two of the three refs here have a large sample size and are 54.4% and 55.7% to the under in their career. Take the under.
10-25-23	Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 227.5		111-104	Win	100	18 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies square off in a nice divisional contest in their first game of the new season for both teams. Early in the NBA season the under has typically cashed a bit more frequently than the over in the past 20 years. The angle is much stronger when it is a divisional game. The higher the posted total the stronger the angle has been. This is a high total because games between these two are typically pretty fast in pace. Both of these teams were top 6 in defensive efficiency last year. Marcus Smart is a good add for the Grizzlies team. Without Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are without their offensive star. Smart is an excellent defender though. Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of the best defenders in the NBA. Herb Jones is a strong defender for the Pelicans. The Pelicans slowed their pace down last year on the whole to a league average. Take the under here.
06-07-23	Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 214.5		109-94	Win	100	18 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Game two went over the total because both teams shot the ball lights out. It still only finished at 219 points. The Heat made 17 three pointers and the Nuggets shot 52% from the floor. Miami scored a ridiculous 1.291 points per possession and the Nuggets scored an above average 1.241 points per possession. The pace of the game was a very slow 86.5 possessions. Miami has clearly decided to try their best to slow the pace of this series down. It worked in game two. They'll likely do it again here, and I don't think we can assume the shots will keep falling at this rate either. This is pivotal game for both teams. It was assumed the Nuggets were going to roll to a win after game one and the first half of game two. Denver did some sleepwalking on defense in the fourth quarter of Game 2. I wouldn't think that will happen again. The Heat are an above average defense and they have decided to let Jokic score and try to cut down on his assists. I like this one to be a tighter lower scoring game. Take the under.
05-27-23	Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5		104-103	Win	100	18 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Boston Celtics have gotten back in this series with their defense. Boston has turned up the pressure defensively. Miami is an above average defensive team, and for the majority of the season they were a below average offense. In Game 5, the game finished at just 207 points despite the two teams shooting the ball well. In fact, they averaged 1.25 and 1.115 points per possession in that game. The pace was just 87.5 possessions in that game. That was the slowest paced game in the series. In the NBA playoffs, as the games get bigger the pace generally slows down. The stakes are massive for this game. Boston is in a win or go home spot, and yet you could argue the pressure has shifted back onto Miami. They don't want any part of this series getting evened up at 3 and going back to Boston. No NBA team has blown a 3-0 series lead. They certainly don't want to be the first. This total has been adjusted down a bit, but I don't think it is enough. This should play out like a game where both teams feel their backs are up against the wall in a must win spot. Malcolm Brogdon is banged up for the Celtics and Gabe Vincent is injured for the Heat too. Those guys had been key offensive contributors down the stretch. Take the under.
05-12-23	Knicks v. Heat UNDER 208.5		92-96	Win	100	18 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Miami Heat host the New York Knicks in Game 6. The Heat have a chance to finish off this series and go to the Eastern Conference Finals. I think there is a good chance they will do so, but I'm going to back the under here. Game 6 and Game 7 in the NBA playoffs have been good to under bettors. The game typically slows down a bit and the defensive intensity increases even more. These are two above average defensive teams. Both coaches are well known for being good defensive minds. The Knicks have been a team that is prone to scoring droughts. Jalen Brunson has been consistent, but the rest of the team has been streaky shooting the basketball. The Heat have been very good offensively in the playoffs, but I still doubt that in the long run they can continue to shoot the basketball this well against good defenses. Take the under.
05-09-23	76ers v. Celtics UNDER 214.5		115-103	Loss	-110	42 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The stats from the 76ers overtime one point win over the Celtics in Game Four are really something else. The game played to a snail's pace at 86 possessions. That's the slowest pace of any game in the NBA playoffs so far this postseason. Both teams shot the lights out in that game. Philly had 1.22 points per possession and Boston had 1.21 points per possession. Despite shooting the ball tremendously, the game had 214 points before overtime. Even if we assume the pace will be a bit quicker in this one (it likely will be) the teams have to shoot the ball well to get past this posted total. If there are 91 possessions in the game and the teams average 1.15 points per possession, that would be between 209 and 210 points. These are two top eight defenses in the league. At times Boston has shown the ability to shut the opposition completely down. I don't expect James Harden to continue to shoot the percentage he shot last game. At 2-2 this is clearly a huge game for both teams. I expect the intensity to be there in this one. Take the under.
05-03-23	76ers v. Celtics UNDER 218.5		87-121	Win	100	31 h 16 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Game One in this series saw the 76ers pull off a big upset in Boston 119-115. The Celtics defense in that game was very weak. I would expect a much stronger effort from Boston here. Boston is a top three defense in the NBA. They should be able to come up with a much better plan to slow down James Harden in Game two. Joel Embiid is doubtful to play in game two. The Sixers offense clicked beautifully in game one, but in game two I expect them to see much tougher resistance. The pace of game one was just 91 possessions. The offensive efficiency numbers were off the charts in game one. The 76ers averaged 1.293 points per possession and the Celtics averaged 1.278 points per possession. Even if we assume the pace will be two possessions quicker than last game and then normalize the offensive efficiency to about 1.16 points per possession (still good numbers offensively) the total would be slightly under 216 points. I think the three point adjustment up in this totals number gives us some value to take the under in the second game. Take the under.
04-30-23	Warriors v. Kings UNDER 229.5		120-100	Win	100	15 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Under It's game seven of what has been the most exciting first round series in the NBA playoffs. Golden State shockingly was blown away at home in Game 6, so we are back to Sacramento for Game 7. It is win or go home time for both teams. There is a bunch on the line in this one, and that usually means the defensive intensity picks up a bit more. The tempo is usually a bit slower. It will still be pretty fast in this matchup, but I think it will be a tick slower than the other games in the series. Many times in the past the refs will let them play a bit more in a game 7 as well, so hopefully we don't run into a ref crew that wants to make this all about them. Three of the six games in this series have stayed under this total even before they reached this critical game seven contest. Game 7's in the NBA playoffs are 35-22 to the under in the last 57 with an average overall winning margin of about 5 points per game. It isn't easy to take an under between these two, but the long term systems have me on this under at a high number. Take the under here.
04-26-23	Heat v. Bucks UNDER 219.5		128-126	Loss	-110	18 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Milwaukee Bucks had the 4th best defense in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency in the regular season. Miami was an average offensive team in the regular season. The Miami Heat have been absolutely shooting the lights out so far in this series. Miami has been torching the nets from 3 point range. Duncan Robinson is shooting 76.5% from 3 point range in this series. Jimmy Butler is shooting 53% from 3 point range in the series. Gabe Vincent is shooting 47.6% from 3 point range. Butler is fantastic and the Heat's offense has been very good, but I don't think they can keep up this ridiculous shooting. Milwaukee is in a win or go home situation here. The Bucks should bring the intensity in a big way here. Milwaukee's offense has been inconsistent and the Heat do have a strong defense. Spoelstra is a really good defensive mind. These closeout games have been solid for under bettors in the long run, and I think the pace should slow down a bit in a game of this magnitude. Take the under.
04-22-23	Bucks v. Heat UNDER 220.5		99-121	Win	100	18 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat are averaging an insane 1.244 and 1.235 points per possession in the first two games of this series. It's extremely hard to continue to shoot the ball that well, especially in the playoffs when the intensity is very high. The Bucks and Heat are both above average defenses. Erik Spoelstra is an excellent coach, and I would expect him to have a good defensive game plan to slow down the Bucks after the Heat were awful on defense in Game Two. Giannis is questionable here. I do like the play whether he plays in this one or not. The Bucks have the guys to make life difficult for Jimmy Butler. The regular season meetings between these two teams were far lower than these two playoff games have been. I think we see some regression to the mean. Take the under.
04-17-23	Nets v. 76ers UNDER 215		84-96	Win	100	39 h 37 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Philadelphia 76ers made 21 three pointers in Game One of this series. Brooklyn shot better than 60% for the majority of the game and still lost by a large margin. The pace of the game was an extremely slow 90.5 possessions. Set to a normalized points per possession figure for these two, a game at that pace should finish with about 206 or 207 points total. The first game was abnormally high because of the white hot shooting in the first half. I'm going to bet that the shooting here cools off. These are both above average defenses and I think there will be some good adjustments made. I think this total is a few points too high. Take the under.
04-16-23	Clippers v. Suns UNDER 225.5		115-110	Win	100	16 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Phoenix Suns have a very good team, and they are good at dictating the pace with Chris Paul running the show. Paul's teams have tended to like to play in the halfcourt more than not. The Suns this year are the same way. They are an above average defensive team too. Paul George is out for the Clippers, and he is primarily an offensive star. Kawhi Leonard is a defensive superstar and he should be able to make the Suns stars take some difficult shots here. Tyronn Lue is a good defensive minded coach too. This total is the same it was earlier this month when these two played in the regular season. This game means much more. Take the under.
04-15-23	Nets v. 76ers UNDER 214.5		101-121	Loss	-110	11 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This is technically the first game of the playoffs with the play in tournament now complete. The Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers square off here. The Nets have slowed their pace down drastically late in the season. They rank 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last 15 games. Philadelphia ranks 30th in tempo in that time frame. This game should be played in the halfcourt. Game one in the NBA playoffs tends to be a bit of tighter game with slower tempos to begin with. Early start times have been positive for under bettors through the playoffs and even more so in round one of the NBA playoffs. The intensity should be up in this one, and I think the open shots will be tougher to come by than normal. Take the under.
04-03-23	San Diego State v. Connecticut UNDER 132.5		59-76	Loss	-105	15 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UConn Huskies defense has been excellent at the end of the year. The Huskies have held Gonzaga to 54 and Miami to 59 points in their last two games. They also held St. Mary's to 55 earlier in the tournament. San Diego State's offense isn't very good, and they can go through long scoring droughts. San Diego State had a clear height advantage against Florida Atlantic, but the length of the UConn defense should bother them. Clinigan and Sanogo are a great tandem down low. The length of the UConn guards is excellent too. San Diego State's defense has been fantastic all year, but they have been at their best in the NCAA Tournament. They will do their best to turn this game into a rock fight. I would expect them to contest UConn's three point jumpers better than anyone else in the NCAA Tournament has. San Diego State is second in the nation in 3 point defense % allowed. The neutral court here at NRG has led to the 9 games played here going under the total by more than 5.5 points on the average. Take the under.
04-01-23	Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State UNDER 132		71-72	Loss	-110	41 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The San Diego State Aztecs are now the #2 ranked three point defense in the country. San Diego State is allowing opponents to shoot just 27.7% from three point range on the year. Florida Atlantic is 35th in three point frequency on offense, so they are definitely accustomed to taking a lot of shots from long range. San Diego State is going to contest those long range jumpers better than anyone Florida Atlantic has played this year. San Diego State has really been grinding down the tempo of their games of late. They slowed a very fast paced Furman team down to 63 possessions. They slowed a pretty fast Creighton team down to 62 possessions. KenPom projects the pace of this game at 66 possessions, but I think that is a bit too quick. Florida Atlantic was slowed to just 59 possessions against Tennessee. That is the most similar team the Owls have played. San Diego State's offense isn't very good, especially with Matt Bradley in a major funk. Their leading scorer during the season has been awful in their last three games. San Diego State is a very inconsistent jump shooting team. Florida Atlantic is underrated on defense. This game is played at NRG Stadium, a massive football stadium where the shooting backdrop has bothered some teams. The under is 4-3 in games played here with the under cashing by an average of 6.29 points in the seven game sample overall. Two of the overs have cashed by two points or fewer. None of the unders have cashed by less than five points. I think this will be a tight game where easy shots are tough to come by. Take the under here.
03-29-23	Wolves v. Suns UNDER 235.5		100-107	Win	100	8 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Phoenix Suns are expected to get Kevin Durant back in the lineup tonight. Durant is a fantastic scorer, but he hasn't played in a long time. Often these stars are a little rusty when they first come back, and Durant won't play his normal amount of minutes. The Minnesota Timberwolves have been playing some very good defenses. They held a high flying Sacramento Kings offense to 115 points. The game before that they had allowed only 96 points to Golden State. Minnesota's tempo has been slower in recent games than it was in the earlier part of the season. This game matters to both teams. They are battling for position in the standings. The Western Conference playoff race is tight as can be for seeding, and we are coming down to the wire. The effort should be here in a game like this. Take the under.
03-27-23	76ers v. Nuggets UNDER 230		111-116	Win	100	7 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Denver Nuggets host the Philadelphia 76ers in a game between two teams who have had a great season, but should continue to try to keep winning to help with the seeding in the playoffs. These late season games between two good teams have been very good under angles in the past 15 years in the NBA. In fact, two teams over 60% in win percentage late in the year squaring off has been a 56% plus angle to the under during that game. In this one, Philadelphia now narrowly has the slowest pace of any team in the NBA over the last ten games. The Nuggets are 26th in tempo so they don't like to push the tempo either. The 76ers are third best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Take the under here.
03-26-23	Bulls v. Lakers UNDER 225		118-108	Loss	-110	3 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Los Angeles Lakers host the Chicago Bulls in a game that means a lot to both teams when it comes to the playoff standings. The Lakers have been playing better basketball of late. LeBron James is questionable for this game. If he does return it would likely be on a minutes restriction and he isn't likely to be in top form right away. The Lakers defense has been very good of late. Los Angeles is 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. They have also drastically slowed their pace down from early in the year. They are now playing at a league average tempo. The Bulls are dead last in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games, and it isn't very close. Chicago is averaging just 94.8 possessions per game in their last ten games. They are also a solid 10th in defensive efficiency. This is an early game in Los Angeles on a Sunday. The Sunday early games in the NBA have been very good under wagers for the last decade. Take the under here.
03-25-23	Connecticut v. Gonzaga OVER 153.5		82-54	Loss	-110	20 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Gonzaga Bulldogs offense is elite. Gonzaga's guards are better than they looked in their close win over UCLA in the Sweet 16. I would expect them to hit a few more shots from deep in this one. Drew Timme will have a tougher matchup here in the paint, but he has been excellent the last two years and I would still expect a pretty good scoring game from him. UConn is firing on all cylinders right now. The Huskies have scored 87 and 88 points in two of their NCAA Tournament games (Iona and Arkansas). UConn is tremendous on the offensive glass, and Gonzaga is only decent on the defensive glass. Timme is elite on offense, but he is subpar on defense and I think UConn's big guys can have a big offensive game. These two teams are first and fourth in the nation (363 teams) in second chance conversion percentage, which is quick second chance opportunities from offensive rebounds. The pace here should be pretty quick. UConn is an average paced team and Gonzaga likes to run as much as possible. The Gonzaga defense is a big weakness, and UConn should be able to take advantage of it. UConn's three point shooting has been good of late, and they have several scoring options from outside. The UConn defense is good, but they do foul a bunch. Gonzaga is good at getting to the line and they should be in the bonus quite a bit in this game. I expect them to get plenty of good looks. Gonzaga's game against UCLA cashed the over and even went over this total despite UCLA going 11 minutes without making a field goal in the second half. T Mobile Arena has been a good over arena. The rims here are loose and there isn't a tough backdrop. The over is 25-12 in the last 37 postseason games at T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Those games have gone over the total by an average of 5.59 points. This should be a great game and overtime or a foul fest late is certainly possible. Take the over here.
03-24-23	Princeton v. Creighton UNDER 140.5		75-86	Loss	-110	91 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Creighton Blue Jays have been known as a great offensive team in the past few years under Greg McDermott. They are still very good on offense, but this is the best Creighton defense McDermott has had. In fact, Creighton is 23rd in offensive efficiency in the country and an even better 13th on defense. Creighton is elite at two key things- defending without fouling (3rd in the country), and defensive rebounding (13th best in the country). These two things can really help keep a total down. Princeton has made a stunning run into the Sweet 16. The Tigers have done so by controlling the pace in a big way against both Arizona and Missouri. Both of those teams play faster than Creighton. Princeton knows their best chance to win is by stalling and playing low scoring games. The Arizona game was low all the way. The Missouri game stayed under, and was very low scoring until Missouri turned the game into a ridiculous foul fest late down 15 points. Even with all that fouling late the game ended up being played to a pace of just 63 possessions. Sweet 16 games with a spread of 7.5 points or larger are 23-8 to the under in the last 31 games. This one fits the bill. That same angle with a total of 135 or higher is 18-3 to the under. Take the under here.
03-23-23	Florida Atlantic v. Tennessee UNDER 131.5		62-55	Win	100	93 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tennessee Volunteers rank first in the nation in defensive efficiency. Rick Barnes has plenty of shortcomings as a head coach, but his teams defend with tremendous intensity. Florida Atlantic hasn't played anyone who defends the way Tennessee does. The Tennessee offense isn't very good. The Volunteers take a lot of long range jumpers, but they are shooting just 33.0% from 3 point range. Tennessee relies heavily on getting second chance opportunities. Florida Atlantic ranks 43rd in defensive rebounding percentage. They also rank 43rd out of 363 in the country in defending without fouling. Florida Atlantic's offense focuses on putting up a lot of 3 point jumpers. The Tennessee defense is first in the country in 3 point percentage allowed at just 26.0%. The Owls are going to have a much harder time than normal getting up open long range jumpers. Madison Square Garden is the host for this game. This has been the single best under venue in all of college basketball for the long term. The tough shooting backdrop can be really hard for shooters to adjust to. Take the under here.
03-19-23	TCU v. Gonzaga UNDER 157		81-84	Loss	-110	20 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Under TCU takes on Gonzaga on Sunday night in what should be a fun contest between two very good teams. TCU does play quickly, but the Horned Frogs have been extremely inconsistent on offense. They are very good defensively. TCU is 23rd in defensive efficiency. They are also 23rd in turnover rate forced. The Horned Frogs will switch up their defenses a lot and look to give Gonzaga's offense some trouble with unique setups. Gonzaga's offense is excellent, but they haven't faced many teams throughout the year who are able to be as aggressive and force turnovers at the rate TCU can. TCU's is just 213th in effective field goal percentage offense. It will be pretty rare to see a total in the upper 150's with one team who has been this inefficient on offense. TCU had been very good on the offensive glass earlier with Eddie Lampkin being a key, but he is off the team now. The Horned Frogs will rely heavily on Mike Miles in this one. Ball Arena in Colorado at a high altitude hosts this game. The first four games played here all stayed under in the Round of 64. They stayed under closing numbers which had dropped drastically in many cases. They stayed under by an average of 6.75 points. The second half was very low in most of these games. I think the pace will be pretty fast here, but I think this total is a few points too high given the situation. It's a one and done and the unders have been hitting at a very high rate in this NCAA Tournament. Hopefully we get another ref crew here who swallows the whistle more than in the regular season games. Take the under.
03-18-23	Princeton v. Missouri UNDER 150		78-63	Win	100	24 h 60 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Missouri Tigers do like to play fast and they will try to push the temp, but Princeton has to know that they don't want to get into an up and down track meet with Missouri. I backed the under between Princeton/Arizona and it stayed under by 40 points. I certainly don't expect this one to stay that low, but Princeton did show they are able to slow the game down against a team who wants to run and run. Missouri is very weak on the defensive glass, but Princeton is below average in their offensive rebounding percentages and second chance conversions. Princeton is elite at getting defensive rebounds (8th in the nation) and the Tigers defense is above average. This is a really high total and both teams would have to shoot the ball well to reach this total at my expected pace here. Take the under.
03-18-23	Duke v. Tennessee UNDER 129.5		52-65	Win	100	13 h 60 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The defenses here are elite. Tennessee is second in the nation in defensive efficiency on the year. Duke is 17th for the year, but they are a top ten defense in the last month. Both defenses do a fantastic job of protecting the paint and making opponents take contested mid range or long range jumpers frequently. Tennessee has given up 57 points or less in four of their last six games. The Volunteers have lots of flaws as a team, but they are very athletic and they play great team defense. On offense, Tennessee lacks shooters and often goes through long scoring droughts. Duke is a little too careless with the basketball, and Tennessee should force turnovers and hurt Duke's offensive efficiency here. Take the under.
03-17-23	Kent State v. Indiana UNDER 140.5		60-71	Win	100	67 h 7 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Kent State Golden Flashes stand out as a rare team from the MAC who defends very well. Kent State took a fantastic game plan in and nearly won at both Houston and Gonzaga. They slowed the game down and used their top notch defense to keep the game close. Kent State's Hornbeak and Payton are long and athletic, and Jacobs is a fantastic one on one defender. I think they are more than capable of giving Indiana a really tough time getting open looks. Kent State's offense isn't consistently good. The Golden Flashes aren't a very good outside shooting team, and I don't think they can get in the paint and score on a consistent basis against Indiana. This game is played at MVP Arena in Albany which has been a fantastic under venue in the past. It's a large arena with a tough shooting backdrop. How good has the under been in games here? The under is nearly 60% in the last 200 games here. Look for both defenses to make it tough on the opposition here. Take the under.
03-17-23	Providence v. Kentucky UNDER 144		53-61	Win	100	19 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kentucky Wildcats and Providence Friars both play at a slower than average tempo. This is a neutral site game in Greensboro. In Greensboro, totals of 140 or higher have gone 75-47-1 to the under. The average margin of victory for the under is a solid 3.56 points over this large sample size. Kentucky's offense will likely drive into the lane a lot here, but that is the strength of the Providence defense. The Friars will mix and match defenses a lot under Ed Cooley. Providence's offense relies too much on Bryce Hopkins. There's a lot of pressure on him in this game against his old team. The Friars have relied heavily on offensive rebounds as well, but Kentucky was first in the SEC in defensive rebounding this year. Take the under here.
03-17-23	Vermont v. Marquette UNDER 145.5		61-78	Win	100	108 h 30 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Marquette Golden Eagles defense was very weak early in the season, but since the start of February they have consistently been much better on defense. Marquette is a good defense now overall, but their weakness is defensive rebounding. Fortunately, Vermont isn't the type of team that goes after it on the offensive glass very much at all. Vermont is 358th out of 363 in offensive rebounding. The Catamounts are happy to get back and stop opponents in transition. Vermont's good transition defense helps here too. The Marquette offense is excellent overall, but I think they'll have a bit harder time than normal getting to the hoop in transition. That should mean more shot clock being used up. Neither of these teams get to the line very much at all, and second chance points aren't likely to be very high in this game either. These high spread games early in the NCAA Tournament have stayed under the total far more often than they have gone over. I think this under has value as well. Take the under.
03-16-23	Penn State v. Texas A&M OVER 134.5		76-59	Win	100	32 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Texas A&M Aggies attack the basket and get to the free throw line at a high rate. There aren't many teams Penn State has played this year that attack the hoop as hard as the Aggies do. Penn State lacks shot blockers on the interior. In fact, they are just 327th out of 363 teams in the country in blocked shot percentage. On the other side, Penn State is an elite shooting team. The Nittany Lions shoot 38.5% from three point range. Penn State is going to shoot a bunch of long range jumpers in this one. On the surface Texas A&M's three point defense looks good, but I see a couple big reasons for that. First, the SEC in general was a horrible three point shooting conference this year. Penn State will be the best long range shooting team Texas A&M has played. Second, that is shown by Texas A&M ranking 213th in open three rate allowed. Opponents were missing open shots. I think Penn State can make them. Jalen Pickett is an elite playmaker and Lundy, Funk, and Wynter are great outside shooters. The pace will be relatively slow here, but I think the efficiencies should be high enough for it to get over. Take the over here.
03-16-23	Princeton v. Arizona UNDER 154.5		59-55	Win	100	48 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Under High seeds in the first round of the NCAA Tournament who are favored by a large margin have seen their games go under the total at a high rate. That has been especially true when the total is set at a high number. Arizona likes to play quickly, and they should score quite a few points here. At the same time, if they are up late it wouldn't surprise me to see them pull quite a few starters and slow things down a bit. They will have a tough challenge ahead with just one day off in between. Princeton should absolutely know their best chance is to stall and slow the tempo down drastically. The Tigers will shoot a lot of long range jumpers here. They are going to be up against a very long Arizona team who will contest those long range jumpers much better than the teams Princeton played against in the Ivy League. Arizona's defense isn't elite, but it is much improved and they looked great defensively against UCLA in their last game. Take the under here.
03-16-23	College of Charleston v. San Diego State UNDER 142.5		57-63	Win	100	25 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Charleston Cougars are 31-3 on the season. Charleston has been fantastic this year, but they did play a very weak schedule. Charleston hasn't seen a defense as good as San Diego State all season long. San Diego State's defense has rounded into form in a big way of late. Their last four games opponents have scored 0.931 points per possession or less in each contest. San Diego State is clearly a top eight or ten defense in the country. Charleston is all about getting out in transition and running, but San Diego State ranks in the top three in the nation in transition defense. Charleston's halfcourt sets end in too many contested three point jumpers. I don't think that is a good solution against the Aztecs. San Diego State's offense still goes through long scoring droughts pretty often. They too often settle for low quality mid range jumpers. Take the under here.
03-14-23	Villanova v. Liberty UNDER 138		57-62	Win	100	27 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Under I don't usually play many unders early in the smaller postseason tournaments, but I'm going to in this one. The fact that it is a smaller postseason tournament is definitely accounted for in the number or else this total would be several points lower. In recent years the over and under have been pretty even early in these tournaments. This is a big game for Liberty. A chance to host a national power in a postseason tournament. Liberty should be highly motivated for a game like this. The Flames are consistently very slow paced. Villanova is even slower paced than Liberty this year. The Wildcats and Flames both are top 50 defensive rebounding teams in the country. Both of them excel in defending without fouling too. They do both shoot the 3 ball a lot and if they are red hot from 3 this will go over, but with normal shooting percentages this game should stay under. Take the under here.
03-12-23	Nets v. Nuggets UNDER 232.5		122-120	Loss	-110	12 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Denver Nuggets are coming off back to back losses to the Bulls at home and then at the Spurs. Denver really needs a bounce back here. The Brooklyn Nets have a completely new look. They do play pretty fast, but they have been playing good defense. Brooklyn is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. Brooklyn is also 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. Denver is 30-5 at home, and I would expect an improved defensive effort from this team after giving up 128 to the Spurs in their last game. This is an early start in the Western Conference. It is also a Sunday early game and those have been good under wagers in the last 15 years in the NBA. Take the under.
03-11-23	Xavier v. Marquette UNDER 156.5		51-65	Win	100	18 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Xavier Musketeers and Marquette Golden Eagles meet in the Big East Finals on Saturday night. These two teams met twice during the regular season. Those two games finished with 156 points and 137 points. The pace of both of those games finished at just 69 possessions and 68 possessions. Marquette mixes in some zone defenses, and that has caused Xavier's offense to slow down from their normal very fast pace. This game is at Madison Square Garden which is arguably the single best under venue in all of college basketball. The under has been money again this year at MSG in the Big East Tournament. Both games went well under the total last night. ShotQuality looks at the quality of shot taken and they believe the two regular season games between these two teams should have finished 154 and 150 points. The tougher shooting backdrop and a lot on the line in the finals of the Big East Tournament. I'll take the under on this high number. Take the under here.
03-10-23	Middle Tennessee v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 141.5		65-68	Win	100	12 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Florida Atlantic Owls are likely in the NCAA Tournament regardless, but I know their coaching staff has talked about wanting to finish the deal and win this Conference USA Tournament. The life of a mid-major isn't easy, and they want to avoid losing to MTSU twice in the same season. MTSU is a slower paced team that relies on getting second chance points. Florida Atlantic is the single best team in the conference when it comes to defensive rebounding. The Owls do a great job defending without fouling as well. Florida Atlantic does play quickly, but their defense is underrated. The Owls rank in the top five percent of teams in the country in shot selection allowed. This one is at Ford Center in Frisco, Texas. This is a football facility that has been great to under bettors through the years. The semifinal and final rounds played here have gone 10-3 to the under. Take the under.
03-09-23	Niagara v. Siena UNDER 129.5		71-65	Loss	-110	26 h 13 m	Show
4 Star Play Under These teams met twice this year. The pace was very slow in both games. One finished with 134 points and the other with 110 points. Shot Quality is an advanced metrics site that measures how many points should have been scored based on the quality of shots taken by each team. They believe the 134 game should have been 129, and the 110 game should have been 119. Both were legitimately very low scoring games. This is a win or go home and neither team will be pushing the tempo. These are the top two teams in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage as well. Games played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City have gone under the total by an average of 4.65 points (a very nice margin) in a 49 game sample size. In the postseason, the under is 19-8 at Boardwalk Hall. This is a big arena and these MAAC schools are not accustomed to playing in a big place like this with a tough shooting backdrop. Take the under.
03-09-23	Rice v. UAB UNDER 158.5		60-87	Win	100	20 h 42 m	Show

03-09-23	Marist v. Quinnipiac UNDER 140		75-59	Win	100	24 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Marist Red Foxes have to try to slow the pace of this game down. Marist is a very slow paced team and they won their first game by stalling the pace out. They'll try to do the same here. Games played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City have gone under the total by an average of 4.65 points (a very nice margin) in a 49 game sample size. In the postseason, the under is 19-8 at Boardwalk Hall. This is a big arena and these MAAC schools are not accustomed to playing in a big place like this with a tough shooting backdrop. Quinnipiac relies on a lot of long range jumpers, but with this background I think they'll be tougher than normal to knock down. Take the under.
03-09-23	Ohio v. Ball State UNDER 152		90-70	Loss	-110	12 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The first time these two teams met the posted total was 145 points. The game finished with 147 points after they scored more than 90 points in the second half. This total is set 7 points higher in a win or go home situation in a game being played in an NBA arena at Rocket Mortgage in Cleveland, Ohio. The pace of this game should be a relatively average pace for college basketball. Oddsmakers are counting on efficiency in order to get to this high total. More times than not the defense steps up in these win or go home games, and we have seen the under do better overall the last couple days as tournaments have gone on. Take the under.
03-08-23	Delaware State v. North Carolina Central UNDER 136		59-89	Loss	-110	19 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play Under UNC Central is a very good team on defense every single year under Coach LeVelle Moton. This team doesn't give up many easy looks. They held Delaware State to 55 and 58 points in the two regular season meetings between these two teams. Delaware State slows the pace down, and UNC Central is happy to play at a slow pace as well. Delaware State is first in the conference in defensive rebounding. This game is played at Norfolk Scope Arena which has proven to be a solid under venue in the past. This game has a higher total than the average of the two regular season meetings between these teams. Both regular season games went under. Take the under.
03-08-23	Georgetown v. Villanova UNDER 142.5		48-80	Win	100	18 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The total here is set the same as the regular season meetings between these two teams. Shot Quality is an advanced metrics site that measures how many points should have been scored based on the quality of shots taken. In both regular season games, Shot Quality believes the game should have stayed well below this total (132 and 130 points). The under is 57% at Madison Square Garden in college hoops games with a total of 136 or higher in the last 15 years. The under is 27-12 in postseason games at MSG with a total of 136 or higher. Villanova is the slowest paced team in the Big East. I think they have a good lead here and grind down the pace with the lead late. Take the under.
03-08-23	DePaul v. Seton Hall UNDER 138.5		66-65	Win	100	16 h 30 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Seton Hall Pirates are expected to be without point guard Kadary Richmond. Without him their offense looks a lot different. Seton Hall has been playing slower at the end of the season without Richmond on the floor. They have been making tough shots, but this game is played at tough shooting venue Madison Square Garden. DePaul has had another terrible season. The Blue Demons lack offensive firepower. This is a team that doesn't share the ball well. They settle into one on one spots. The under is 57% at Madison Square Garden in college hoops games with a total of 136 or higher in the last 15 years. The under is 27-12 in postseason games at MSG with a total of 136 or higher. Both regular season games stayed under this total as well. Take the under.
03-08-23	Georgia Tech v. Pittsburgh UNDER 143.5		81-89	Loss	-110	13 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Pitt Panthers have changed things up a bit this year and are playing faster and have been better on offense. Pitt hasn't been able to be slowed down tempo wise by many teams so far this year. Which team has slowed them down? Georgia Tech. Two of Pitt's three slowest games of the year have been against Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech just played a grinder yesterday against Florida State (59 possessions) and FSU is a team that normally likes to get out and run too. The last game these two played had a total of 137. This is a win or go home game for GA Tech, and Pitt might miss the NCAA Tournament if they lose this game too. A lot is on the line. Take the under.
03-07-23	Northern Arizona v. Montana UNDER 140		83-71	Loss	-110	9 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks stunned the Eastern Washington Eagles a couple days ago. Montana has taken care of business to reach this game. The two games played between these two teams in the regular season were 138 and 133 points in regulation. Both were played to a slower than average pace. The advanced metrics site ShotQuality believes based on the quality of shots the two games in the regular season should have finished 136 (after overtime) and 128 (in the second game). This is a win or go home on a neutral floor. Both teams take a lot of 3 point jumpers. Both of these offenses actually rate in the bottom 10% of all teams in the country in terms of quality of shot. They do both have good outside shooters, but the defense should be a bit better in a game like this and a neutral floor is a positive for the under. Take the under.
03-07-23	St. Peter's v. Fairfield UNDER 125.5		70-52	Win	100	19 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The St. Peter's Peacocks have the worst offense in the MAAC. They were especially bad away from home this year. Fairfield's defense was actually significantly better on the road and on neutral floors than at home this year. The two regular season meetings between these two teams both stayed under this very low posted total. Those games played to an average pace of 61 possessions (very slow). St. Peter's has played its last five games to a pace of 61 possessions or slower. Fairfield has been one of the best defenses in the MAAC all season long. This game is played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. It's a large venue where shooters have had a tough time in the past. The under has hit by an average of more than 4 points in all games played at this building. Take the under.
03-06-23	Chattanooga v. Furman UNDER 151		79-88	Loss	-110	7 h 4 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Chattanooga Mocs and Furman Paladins meet in the Southern Conference Championship game tonight. Chattanooga beat Furman by a point in overtime last year in the finals. These two teams look a little different this year, but the stakes are extremely high again here. The two regular season meetings both went to Furman. Both of those games stayed under this total. This is the biggest game of the year for both of these teams. The game is played at Cherokee Center in North Carolina. The under is 29-17 in games played here. Both of these teams shoot a ton of 3 pointers. They are both capable of shooting it well, and if they are on fire from 3, this one will go over the total. However, both defenses are above average defending the long range jumper, and the tempo is likely to slow down here with so much on the line. It being at a neutral site that is tough for shooters is a positive as well. Take the under here.
03-05-23	South Dakota v. North Dakota State UNDER 144		68-70	Win	100	20 h 51 m	Show
3 Star Play Under North Dakota State and South Dakota meet late Sunday in the Summit League Conference Tournament. These two teams played two games in the regular season that stayed under this total. Those games finished at 134 and 133 points. South Dakota relies very heavily on three point shooting. The Coyotes have shot it well, but North Dakota State is third in the Summit League in 3 point defense. This is a neutral site too where the shooting backdrop isn't ideal. North Dakota State has played better defense down the stretch. Their last four games have all finished at 140 total points or fewer. If the long range shots are falling this could go over, but I think the pace will be pretty slow and neither team gets to the line much or gets second chances very often at all. Take the under.
03-04-23	North Dakota v. Oral Roberts UNDER 157		80-96	Loss	-110	4 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Summit League's top team starts postseason play today as Oral Roberts takes on North Dakota. Oral Roberts and North Dakota played twice in the regular season. Those games finished at 156 points and 143 points total. This game will be played on a neutral floor in South Dakota that has been good to under bettors in the past. It is win or go home. Shot Quality tracks what the score should have been based on the quality of shot: here are the results from the first two games 156 (155 should have been) 143 (140 should have been) Vanover is a good defensive force inside for Oral Roberts and North Dakota will have to settle for a lot of outside jumpers here. In a win or go home game on a tough neutral court this is a few points too high. Take the under.
03-04-23	LSU v. Florida OVER 141.5		67-79	Win	100	15 h 54 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Florida Gators defense isn't even close to the same without Castleton on the floor. They allowed 82 against Kentucky and 88 against Vanderbilt in their first two games without him. Georgia scored 67 last game due to terrible outside shooting. Florida should get their points against a woeful LSU defense. The Gators have been playing a bit faster in the last few games, and LSU has the worst defense in the SEC. LSU should get second chance opportunities throughout. The over has been cashing in at a very high rate here at the end of the season and many of those overs have been from late season games between mediocre teams with little to play for. That has been a good long term angle as well. This one fits. Take the over.

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