Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star Play Over* The SE Missouri State Redhawks are going to make you play their style of basketball. This team is 21st in the nation in tempo. They play a very helter skelter style. They are pressing and fouling a bunch. This team is 356th in defending without fouling out of 363 teams in the country.

Morehead State is good at getting to the free throw line, and they are shooting an excellent 76% from the charity stripe. Morehead State is no longer a defensive powerhouse with Broome now down at Auburn swatting shots for the Tigers. 

Five of SE Missouri State's last seven games have gotten to 155 points or higher.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have a pretty good zone defense that can really bother many opponents. They play a full court matchup zone press that actually looks to slow the game down. 

Merrimack is dead last in the nation (#363) in offensive efficiency. They take a lot of bad shots, and they aren't making them. Merrimack continues to put up a bunch of long range jumpers, but they shoot just 27% from 3 point range.

Stonehill has been good at defending without fouling in the conference, and they have slowed their pace down a lot in conference play. 

Merrimack has seen 8 of their last 9 stay under this low total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have seen 13 of their 17 games this year stay under this very low total. North Texas ranks last in the nation in tempo. The Mean Green put up a bunch of 3 point jumpers, and FAU is playing excellent defense so far this year.

The first game between these two was 50-46. Last year when these teams met it was 54-51. Florida Atlantic is playing slower than they did a year ago and they are much better on defense. 

North Texas does foul quite a bit, but FAU is bottom 50 in the country in getting to the line. I think we see another hard fought low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first time Golden State and San Antonio played earlier this year the posted total was 234 points. Now it has jumped by double digits. 

Though the Warriors have had a lot of high scoring games lately, 10 of their last 12 games have gone below this total. The Spurs have had 5 of their last 6 go under this number.

This game will be played in the Alamodome with 60,000 people or so expected to be in attendance. This is a massive venue with a unique shooting backdrop. These two teams both have good shooters, but a total this high on a neutral site that is a football stadium is too high for me.

The adjustment from the first game has been too big too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Indiana Screamin' Eagles (great name) play at a really quick tempo. They are 32nd in the country in pace. Little Rock is 59th in tempo. There should be a lot of quick possessions and run outs in transition here.

Southern Indiana is the favorite here and they are very good with second chance points and getting to the free throw line. Those are two huge weaknesses of the Little Rock defense. 

Little Rock excels in getting steals and quick scores, and Southern Indiana doesn't take good care of the basketball. That should result in some easy looks for the Trojans here.

The spread is right around the point where a late foul fest could help out a lot here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers have had a couple games where their offense looks much improved, but overall this is still a very weak offense. Eastern Illinois is 353rd in offensive efficiency out of 363 teams in the country. Eastern Illinois is up against an SIU Edwardsville team that is much improved on defense this year. Edwardsville is 105th in effective field goal percentage defense.

SIU Edwardsville is 272nd in effective field goal percentage offense. They are reliant on getting to the free throw line. Over his career, Marty Simmons' teams have been pretty good at defending without fouling. 

I expect a lot of wasted possessions with both teams committing a lot of careless turnovers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The IUPUI Jaguars aren't a team I expected to be taking an over with this year, but here we are. IUPUI was historically bad on offense last year. They aren't good this year, but they are far better than they were a year ago. IUPUI is also playing 5 possessions per game faster than they were a year ago. 

IUPUI was 356th in effective field goal percentage offense and 294th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are up to 303rd on offense this year and all the way down to 357th on defense. 

Fort Wayne is 104th in tempo, and I think they will look to run when they can in this matchup. They put up a lot of 3's and they will get open looks in bunches against IUPUI.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Davis Aggies do like to play quickly, but they are better on defense than on offense. UC Davis just put the clamps down on Cal State Bakersfield and held them to 48 points in their last game. 

UC Davis held Cal State Northridge to 47 and 49 points in their two meetings last year. The Aggies defense can struggle against teams who are really good from long range, but Northridge is weak from the 3 point line. 

The Cal State Northridge Matadors are one of the slowest paced teams in the Big West. It will be rare to see them with a total set this high. Northridge is pretty good at defending in the paint, and UC Davis usually likes to attack the basket.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri Tigers are pressing a lot this year, and getting out in transition quickly off steals. Missouri ranks first in the nation in potential quick points off breakaway steals so far this season. Missouri is one of the shortest teams in the nation, and they are going to be taken advantage of on the glass by many teams in the SEC. Texas A&M is great on the offensive boards.

Texas A&M has wanted to push the pace this year when they can. This is a great opportunity for them to run in this game. They are second in the SEC in average possession length thus far this season. 

Both teams should get to the line a lot in this one. The two defenses are aggressive and foul a lot. These two teams are shooting 73% and 76% from the free throw line. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dayton Flyers have an elite defense. Dayton is 6th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Dayton is the second tallest team in the country. The Flyers are excellent at blocking shots. They are great on the defensive boards. They also do a great job defending without fouling.

Fordham has been very weak on offense in the Atlantic 10 so far this year. The Rams scored just 43 points against Davidson. They put up 66 against a bad St. Joe's defense too. This Fordham team is 33rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are much better defensively than they are on offense.

Dayton is just 111th in offensive efficiency. The Flyers have far too many wasted possessions due to turnovers.

I think Dayton slows the pace down and both defenses have the edge over the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Peter's Peacocks have seen 8 straight games finish below this posted total. St. Peter's doesn't have enough shot makers on this team. The Peacocks are 348th in effective field goal percentage offense. They also rank 342nd in average possession length. The Peacocks play good halfcourt defense, but do get bitten by their tendency to foul quite a bit. It helps them that Canisius is the worst team in the MAAC at getting to the free throw line. 

Canisius is 317th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Golden Griffins have scored 64, 60, and 64 points in their last three games. Canisius takes a lot of shots from long range, but the strength of the Peacocks is defending the 3 point line.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavaliers will be without Donovan Mitchell in this game. To say that Mitchell has been a large part of the Cavs offense is a massive understatement. Mitchell has been on fire of late, and everything has been running through him. Darius Garland is also listed as questionable for this game. Raul Neto will get more minutes here, and he is a liability on offense. 

The Nuggets are 19th in the NBA in tempo. The Cavs are dead last in tempo. The Cavs are also first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Donovan Mitchell grades out as one of the Cavs weaker defenders, but he is a top offensive performer. 

I think the Cavs offense will be inefficient here. This total is pretty high given the circumstances.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies are one of the few good defenses in the Big Sky Conference. Montana also prefers to play at a slow pace. Montana fouls at a very high rate, and many of their opponents have been feasting at the line. When handicapping the Grizzlies games this year, it will be really important to look at their opponent and how aggressive they are taking it to the basket and getting to the line.

Northern Arizona has ranked dead last in the Big Sky Conference in FTA/FGA in each of the last two seasons. They are running at the same very low rate again so far this year. Northern Arizona ranks in the 4th percentile in the country in shot selection according to Shot Quality. The Lumberjacks are taking too many mid range contested jumpers.

Montana's last four meetings against Northern Arizona have all finished with a score at the end of regulation of 123 points or fewer combined. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Phoenix rank 331st in average possession length. Will Ryan's team wants to slow the game down. Green Bay is reliant on getting to the line on offense, because their halfcourt sets have been terrible. Fort Wayne is 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage and they are 10th in the nation at defending without fouling. Green Bay is likely to have a lot of wasted possessions from turnvoers as well.

Fort Wayne is an inconsistent offense. They aren't able to get to the basket very well, and Green Bay has been worst at defending the paint. 

Both of these teams have played much tougher slates of offenses than defenses, so I see their numbers as a bit skewed.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have always been very good at home under Steve Pikiell, but they are coming off a win at #1 ranked Purdue last game. Rutgers is a top five defense in the country so far this year. Omoruyi is an absolute monster patrolling the paint on the defensive end. Maryland is going to have a very hard time trying to get into the paint at all in this one. 

These two teams are both top 12 in the nation in 3 point defense. The Terrapins are coming off a dreadful performance against Michigan, and I do think they'll be better on defense here. Kevin Willard is a defensive minded coach first. Rutgers can go on long scoring droughts at times, and Maryland is above average on defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Nevada Wolf Pack have played a bunch of really good defenses so far this year. Nevada toyed with playing slower earlier in the season, but Steve Alford's teams usually like to run and they are back to playing much faster in recent weeks. They just put up 78 and 75 points respectively on Boise State and Air Force, two good defensive teams who usually play low scoring games. 

Colorado State is 30th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense, but the Rams are 241st in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a team who is giving up far too many open looks from long range. Nevada takes a lot of shots from 3 point range, and they should get a lot of clean looks here.

Nevada gets to the line a lot and shoots 79.5% from 3 point range. The Wolf Pack should get to the stripe a solid amount here.

This total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks don't typically shy away from a track meet with Eric Musselman as their head coach. Arkansas has been ranked in the top 45 in the nation in tempo in each of his seasons with the team. They sit at #37 so far this year. The Razorbacks are all about attacking the basket. They can struggle on offense against great interior defenses. Missouri isn't a good interior defense. The Tigers force a bunch of turnovers and get out in transition quickly off those, but they don't have enough shot blockers inside, and they are very poor on the defensive glass. I think Arkansas can score in the paint here.

The Missouri offense is much better this year. I love what Dennis Gates is doing with this team. D'Moi Hodge is a big addition to the team with his attacking ability and tremendous ability to steal the basketball and immediately turn it into transition opportunities. Missouri ranks second in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Tigers are #28 in tempo. They will push the issue.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves have played 9 of their last 10 games under this total. Bradley is a top 25 defense in the country. The Braves also rely on a lot of 3 point jumpers on offense. They are up against a Murray State team who has been in the top 35 in each of the last two seasons in 3 point defense. 

Murray State is 224th in tempo. The Racers have been far more reliable on defense this year than on offense. This is a very young team. They do have athleticism and quickness, but they don't have a great game plan on offense right now.

Bradley and Murray State are both above average on both the defensive glass and defending without fouling. The pace of this game should be slow based on the quality transition defense of both teams and the preference to slow things down from the two offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers are first in the nation in defensive efficiency and it isn't close. Tennessee is also first in the nation in effective field goal percentage and 3 point defense. They are third in turnovers forced rate and blocked shots rate as well. A fantastic defense for Rick Barnes and the Vols this year.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are defense first under Chris Jans as well. The Bulldogs are sixth in the NFL in defensive efficiency. This team is really scrappy and they defend without fouling (7th in the nation in FTA/FGA on defense). 

Tennessee has seen 6 of 13 games go under this very low total. Miss State has seen 6 of 13 games go under this total too. 

Both offenses have some real weaknesses. Tennessee doesn't shoot it well from 3 and they rely heavily on second chance points. Miss State turns it over too much and they also don't shoot the ball well in general (from 3 or from the FT line).

The defenses have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are always good on defense under Steve Pikiell, but this is the best defense he has had yet. Cliff Omoruyi is a shot blocking machine down low, and excellent defensive rebounder. Even the Rutgers guards and wings have a lot of length, and that makes them a tough team to get clean looks against. Rutgers is 3rd in the nation in defensive efficiency on the year.

Purdue was 5th in effective field goal percentage offense last year. They are 95th so far this year. Zach Edey will still do damage down low here, but Purdue definitely misses Jaden Ivey. The Boilers are better on defense this year though. Purdue was 134th in effective field goal percentage defense a year ago, and they are 22nd this year. 

Purdue has slowed their pace down a bit without Ivey pushing the pace also. I see this as a game where both teams struggle to find open looks.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave are pushing the pace more this year. Tulane was 109th in average possession length last year. Tulane is 14th so far this year in average possession. The Green Wave are 3rd in turnover percentage on offense. They are also shooting an impressive 81.4% from the free throw line. Tulane should get to the line a lot here against a Memphis team that fouls a lot.

The Memphis Tigers were 56th in average possession length last year. Memphis now sits at 23rd in average possession length so far this season. The Tigers have been playing at a really fast pace in recent games. They have had a bunch of high scoring games recently. Shot Quality confirms that these games haven't been a fluke either. In fact, based on the quality of shots taken in those games Shot Quality believes Memphis' games should have finished with 159 points or more in seven straight games.

A track meet here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Furman Paladins do a great job running high quality offensive sets. They are looking for open 3's or shots near the rim. Furman is 15th in near proximity offense. Western Carolina is 274th in defending those near proximity shots close to the rim. Furman should get open 3's against a terrible perimeter defense here too.

Western Carolina is due for some shooting regression in a positive way at some point soon. The Catamounts are good at getting to the line. They have shot the ball poorly from 3, but Furman doesn't guard beyond the arc well.

Both teams prefer to push tempo (especially Furman who is the better team). 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wichita State Shockers are 6th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Wichita State is top 15 in the country in both 2 point and 3 point defense. This is a team that works extremely hard on this end of the floor. Open shots should be very tough to come by for the East Carolina Pirates.

East Carolina's defense should get better as the season goes. Mike Schwartz is known as a defensive guru. The Pirates have held three straight teams to 56, 49, and 59 points in their last three games. 

Both teams are subpar on offense and rely on low quality shots. The pace should be very slow here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Richmond Spiders don't have the offensive firepower they have had the last few years. They lost Grant Golden and Jacob Gilyard who were the guys that made everything go for the offense. Richmond has reinvented themselves as a really good defensive team though. The Spiders have played a lot of good offenses, and they are 72nd in defensive efficiency. They also have slowed their pace down to 302nd in the nation.

George Mason has played a lot of teams who want to run of late (Hofstra, Toledo, Coppin State, Tulane). That has meant some higher scoring games for them. Overall though, this is a George Mason team that wants to play relatively slow. The Patriots are much better on defense than offense too.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Dayton is 21st in defensive efficiency and 14th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Flyers are also 324th in overall tempo in the nation. Dayton has had loads of very low scoring games. 

Davidson has been attacking the basket more this year, but Dayton has all kinds of length on the inside. The Flyers are the second tallest team in the country. They rank in the top 25 in blocked shots percentage. Davidson's offense is far less efficient than the last couple years, but their defense is much better.

I think this number has gotten several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two teams who really want to slow the pace down. When they meet I expect us to see an extremely slow tempo. It wouldn't surprise me to see a pace of 59 or 60 possessions in this game. 

Mt. St. Mary's is using 20.6 seconds per possession in their league games. Niagara is using 21.6 seconds per possession in their league games.

Both teams turn it over too much and neither team gets to the line much. This should be an ugly one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Poly Mustangs and Cal State Northridge Matadors play a similar style. Both of them really slow the pace down. They both also struggle to get good looks from the floor. They have poor spacing and don't run very good sets. They are reliant on getting to the free throw line in order to score much at all.

The two meetings between these two last year were 123 points and then 118 in regulation (the game went into double OT in the second meeting). I see this one falling in a similar range in the low 120's.

Both teams are very good on the defensive glass and both waste a lot of possessions with turnovers on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* UT Rio Grande Valley ranks first in the nation (out of 361 teams) in tempo. UT Rio Grande hasn't had a single game against a Division One team play to a pace slower than 74 possessions. They have played three games in a row at faster than 80 possessions. That is blazing fast.

Utah Tech is a team that tends to play to the pace of their opponent. They played an 85-74 game against UT Rio Grande Valley last year, and that was with fewer FT's (and a terrible FT shooting percentage) in that game.

UT Rio Grande Valley is #1 in FTA/FGA and Utah Tech is #21. Both teams foul more than an average team. There should be a parade to the line here in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have played 12 games this year. The highest combined total in a North Texas game is 132 points. The other 11 games have all finished with 123 points or fewer. The one game that went to 132 points got there because Abou Ousmane went 15/19 from the floor and scored 37 points. This is a guy who wasn't even averaging double figures per game going into that game (their last contest). 

Florida Atlantic lost 54-51 at home last year against North Texas. The Owls couldn't speed up the game like they wanted against North Texas. Florida Atlantic wants to push when they can, but North Texas is the slowest paced team in the country. The Mean Green force their style of play onto the opposition.

FAU is 22nd in effective field goal percentage defense. North Texas is 20th in effective field goal percentage defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers have the best defense in the country. Tennessee is third in the nation in turnover percentage on defense. They are first in 3 point FG percentage defense. They are first in effective field goal percentage defense.

Ole Miss is 52nd in defensive efficiency. The Rebels are have had bad luck on "free throw defense" or their overall defensive numbers would look even better than they do. This Ole Miss team has good length on the inside, and they have a bunch of shot blockers.

Last year when these two met it was 66-60 in OT. Before OT it was 51-51. Two years ago it was 52-50 when they met. 

These are two defensive teams who prefer to play in the halfcourt and their style of play has led to lower scoring games against each other.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Christmas Day has become a big showcase day for the NBA. The Knicks won the early Christmas game 101-87 last year in the noon eastern start time. 

Christmas Day unders in general have done well, and the earlier starts have been excellent for under bettors. 

These guys still try their best to have a Christmas with family and friends and this is a tough spot to come in here and play a very early tipoff at Madison Square Garden after most of them likely had their family time on Christmas Eve. 

We've seen these games trend to a slower pace and less fouls. 

These two teams are 2nd and 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are 10th and 17th in offensive efficiency. 

This is a divisional rivalry game and I expect the defenses to have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets meet in a divisional matchup tonight before their break for Christmas Eve. The Mavericks must play again on Christmas afternoon. 

The final day before break at Christmas has been good to under bettors in the long run. These players do want to get home and have some time with family as much as they can.

Even in normal situations, I like the under in this game. Divisional unders with a total of 218 or higher in the first 70 games of the season are 54.5% since 2006. 

All three referees in this game have been good under referees. That is especially the case for Brian Forte who has seen 54.5% of his games in his career stay under. 

These two both rank in the bottom six in tempo in the NBA. Houston is 27th in offensive efficiency in the last ten games too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles picked up some nice transfers in the offseason. Southern Miss is led by Felipe Haase who is a star big man who transferred in from Mercer. Austin Crowley is a really good player as well, and he transferred in from Ole Miss. 

Southern Miss has decided to pick up their pace a lot of late. The Golden Eagles have played four games in a row to a pace of 74 possessions or quicker. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted their numbers enough for this change.

UNLV wants to run as well. The Rebels are 30th in the nation in quickest average possession length. They excel at getting quick steals and scores.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wichita State Shockers defense is excellent. Wichita State is 10th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They don't force a lot of turnovers, but Texas Southern is an extremely poor shooting team. The Tigers have been held to 57 points or fewer in regulation in six of their first ten games against Division One opponents. Wichita State's defense should lock them down as well.

Wichita State is 306th in the nation in tempo. The Shockers have scored 56 points or less four times this season. They rely too much on midrange jumpers. Texas Southern's defense isn't bad, and they do have a couple shot blockers on the inside. 

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have played 11 games so far this year. All 11 of those games have finished with 123 combined points or fewer. That is remarkable given that they have played some faster paced teams (Long Beach State and UMass for example) and still kept the games very low scoring.

North Texas is excellent at forcing their style of play onto their opponent. The Mean Green are dead last in average possession length, using up 21.3 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. They are also excellent on the defensive end.

UTSA has been inconsistent this year. The Roadrunners were held to 55 points by Grambling and they were held to 55 points by Texas A&M Corpus Christi as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Kentucky Colonels are terrible in halfcourt offense. They rely on getting steals and quick scores to get their points. UNC Greensboro is top 30 in the country in preventing steals and breakaway scores.

UNC Greensboro has been very good at controlling the pace. The Spartans were able to slow the pace down against Marshall, Hofstra, and UMBC. 

These two teams rank 316th and 341st in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. I would expect a lot of missed shots here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This one has dropped down to a spot where I have to take the over. Jayden Stone did miss last game for Detroit and he is questionable here due to an illness. Detroit did get back Grant Liddell a few games ago, and he has been great on offense down low. The Titans are led by sensational scorer Antoine Davis. 

Detroit has allowed 92 points or more in three of their last eight games overall. The Titans defense ranks 330th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Cincinnati is much better offensively this year. The Bearcats have scored 81 points or more in seven of their 12 games this year. They have scored 86 points or more in six of those contests. The Bearcats tempo is 54th fastest in the country in average possession length. 

Detroit should be playing from behind and needing to keep the tempo relatively quick.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tennessee has been the best defense in the country so far this year, and it isn't even close. Rick Barnes' team is putting in some great effort on the defensive end of the floor. 

The Volunteers are worse on offense than they were a year ago. They rank 275th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are even better on defense this year compared to last season. They are also playing a bit slower.

Austin Peay has major offensive problems. They scored only 50 on NC State, 44 against Purdue, and 55 against lowly Howard. I don't know if they can get to 50 against Tennessee.

I made this one a few points lower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The High Point Panthers are playing a whole new brand of basketball under G.G. Smith this year. They are pushing the pace to the extreme. High Point ranks 14th in overall tempo this season. The Panthers offense has been really good, but their defense leaves a lot to be desired. High Point has allowed at least 82 points in each of their last four games. 

High Point's games have been really high scoring this year, and according to ShotQuality's expected results it has been no fluke. Eight of their nine games against Division One opponents have finished with a ShotQuality expected total score of 159 points or more.

East Carolina has been great at getting to the line and they get a lot of second chance points. High Point struggles badly on the defensive glass, and they foul at a high rate as well. The Pirates have already had several very high scoring games against fast paced opponents (Indiana State, Toledo, and Coppin State). 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Lafayette is 360th out of 361 teams in average possession length. This is a team that is doing its best to stall throughout the game. Lafayette ranks in the 7th percentile at ShotQuality in shot making. They settle for a lot of tough 3 point jumpers. 

La Salle is 310th in offensive efficiency so far this year. They are 17th percentile in shot making. The Explorers have faced the 308th toughest slate of defenses while they have taken on the 80th toughest slate of offenses.

If the shots are falling it will go over, but more often than not this year the shots haven't fallen for these teams.

A sleepy spot here with an early start during Christmas break. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange were a big disappointment last year. They were really weak on defense last year. Jim Boeheim said in the offseason that his biggest goal for this team was being far better on the defensive end. Syracuse was 207th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 74th so far this year. This team is also playing slower. They have had almost two possessions per game fewer than they had last season. Syracuse was 15th in offensive efficiency last year, but they are only 68th this season.

Pittsburgh has shot blockers on the inside, and Syracuse has been relying on getting into the paint and getting shots near the basket. I think the Panthers can give them a hard time here with their defense.

These two teams are very familiar with each other, and I expect the defenses to have a little bit of a leg up.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northwestern State Demons were clearly trying to play at a slower pace earlier this year under their new head coach. That has gone out the window in their last few games. Northwestern State has played three of its past four games to a pace of 76 possessions or faster. That is extremely fast. Those are their three fastest paced games of the year and they have all happened in the last couple weeks. 

Baylor is 59th in average possession length so far this year. The Bears are 6th in offensive efficiency. They have put up at least 87 points against every opponent rated 190th or lower on KenPom's rankings. I think they are capable of scoring into the 90's in this one. Baylor is amazing on the offensive boards. Northwestern State rates dead last in the country in second chance conversion percentage defense. Expect a lot of second chances for Baylor in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs have a very specific style of play. They haven't been letting teams get them out of that style. Chris Jans is a first year coach for the Bulldogs, and he has them playing his way right out of the gate. The Bulldogs are 337th out of 361 in the country in tempo. They are 7th in defensive efficiency and 8th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Drake has faced the 272nd toughest slate of defenses so far this year. Drake is now up against by far the best defense they have faced all season. The Drake Bulldogs have relied a lot on getting to the free throw line, but Mississippi State ranks 10th in the nation in FTA/FGA on defense.

Mississippi State's offense relies heavily on second chance points. Drake is 7th in the nation in second chance conversion points allowed in the country.

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Dakota Fighting Hawks have one of the worst defenses in the country. North Dakota has been 280th or worse in four straight seasons in 3 point defense percentage allowed. St. Thomas is well known for taking a ton of shots from long range. St. Thomas is shooting 40.9% from 3 point range so far this year. They have four great shooters from the outside. 

St. Thomas is 343rd in defensive efficiency in the country. They have faced a very weak slate of opposing offenses and they still have very ugly defensive numbers on the whole. North Dakota is decent from long range, and they will have open long range jumpers here too.

Both games between these two last year easily cleared this total. The spread is set a number where a late foul fest wouldn't be a surprise either.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chattanooga Mocs are an excellent offensive team. Dan Earl has been known for years as an offensive mastermind. He did a fantastic job with the VMI offense. He brought star 7 footer Jake Stephens with him and now the Mocs are looking tremendous on offense as well. 

Stephens is a matchup nightmare. He is 19/38 from 3 point range on the year, and he is a good passer for a big man as well. The Mocs take a ton of 3's, and Belmont's weakness on defense since Casey Alexander has been their head coach has been their 3 point defense. Chattanooga has scored 81 points or more in five straight games.

Belmont pushes the pace, and the Bruins like to put up a lot of shots from long range too. The Bruins are shooting 41% from 3 point range this year. Chattanooga is 243rd in defensive efficiency. The Mocs are not very good in transition defense and Belmont should take advantage.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a neutral site game which is beneficial for the under. Wyoming played two very slow paced games that finished at 117 and 107 points against Drake and Boston College on neutral courts earlier in the year. Wyoming is a good offense, but this Dayton defense is the best defense they have faced so far this year. 

Dayton is a really good under team based on multiple things. Dayton plays very slowly. The Flyers rank 338th out of 363 in tempo. They are also only mediocre on offense. They are 28% from 3 point range on the year. Dayton is a top 30 defensive team though.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers have played a lot of defensive minded teams who like to slow the pace down. Memphis wants to run, and their offense has been doing a better job taking the ball to the basket this year. 

Memphis has had some extremely high scoring games against opponents who play at a fast pace (Alabama 91-88, Auburn 82-73, St. Louis 90-84). The Tigers crash the offensive boards, and Texas A&M is very weak on the defensive glass. Memphis should get a lot of second chances and get to the free throw line often in this one. 

Texas A&M is 99th in average possession length out of 363 teams, so they are moving quickly. The Aggies are 8th in FTA/FGA so they are living at the line. They are 355th out of 363 in FTA/FGA allowed on defense. Their games have featured a ton of trips to the stripe. 

Texas A&M has faced the 94th toughest slate of defenses on the season. They have faced only the 240th toughest slate of offenses. Memphis has faced the 12th toughest slate of defenses and 44th toughest slate of offenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats defense is tremendous this year. Kentucky has faced the 90th toughest slate of offenses, and they are 7th in defensive efficiency in the country. The Wildcats make it very difficult for opposing teams to get into the paint and score.

Kentucky's offense hasn't been very efficient this year. The Wildcats have settled for too many midrange jumpers that aren't very good looks. They have faced only the 259th toughest slate of defenses so far this year.

UCLA plays at about an average pace. The Bruins are coming off a blowout win over Maryland, but I think this Kentucky defense will be much tougher to get through. The Bruins added a good shot blocker in Adem Sona this year. 

This game is played at Madison Square Garden. College games played at MSG has been a tremendous under system in the long run. This neutral court setup is a positive for this under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Illinois State had a bunch of low scoring games earlier in the year. The RedBirds come into this one having played three high scoring games in a row. What's going on? They played three top 75 tempo teams in a row. Now, they go back to playing a team in Ball State that has a slightly below average tempo.

Illinois State ranks 324th in tempo. The RedBirds struggle badly with turnovers on offense, so they are really wasting a lot of possessions. Their offense hasn't looked good this year despite facing one of the 25 easiest slates of defenses in the country. 

A neutral court here boosts the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* North Texas has played 10 games this year. All ten of them have finished with a final total of 123 points or fewer. They rank dead last in the nation in tempo. North Texas has a top 55 defense in the country as well. That combination can lead to some really low scoring games. 

UMass plays pretty quickly, but UMass is better on defense than offense. They are shooting just 46.9% from 2 point range. The Minutemen were stalled out by Towson and Charlotte earlier this year. Those are two teams who are similar to North Texas, but they aren't quite as slow or as good on defense.

This is a neutral site game and that is a plus for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Jacksonville State Gamecocks put up a ton of shots from long range. Jacksonville State is shooting 39% from long range. They are up against a Little Rock team that is one of the worst 3 point defenses (and defenses in general) so far this year.

Little Rock has had games flying over this posted total on a regular basis. They are pushing the tempo and they are second to last in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. The Trojans also manage to commit a lot of fouls.

Jacksonville State torched this defense last year and they should again. Little Rock should do enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavaliers have played 14 straight games that have finished under this posted total. Cleveland has played 16 straight games that have stayed under this total in regulation. 

Cleveland is playing at the slowest pace in the NBA by a wide margin in their last 15 games. In fact, they are playing 2.5 possessions per game on average slower than the second slowest team in the league during this last 15 game span. They also have been the best defense in the NBA during that time. Cleveland is giving up just 1.043 points per possession. Mobley is a defensive beast, and the Cavs have really bought into their defensive style this season. 

Indiana is a higher scoring team, but they are middle of the pack in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Pacers are actually only 25th in offensive efficiency. They play quickly though and have scored points largely because of volume. I don't think the Cavs will get into a track meet with them. 

The Cavs are the much better team, and I like their defense to control this one. Divisional unders have fared much better than non-divisional unders long term in the NBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Kentucky Norse have slowed down their pace even more this year. They rank 356th out of 363 teams in the country in tempo. Northern Kentucky has slowed down multiple fast paced teams this year when it comes to possessions per game. I think they can do it again here.

Eastern Kentucky wants to run, but they are actually playing quite a bit slower than I expected this year. Eastern Kentucky ranks 77th in tempo after being 24th a year ago. The Colonels have been better at protecting the paint on defense this year thanks to a couple solid shot blockers in the frontcourt.

These two met last year and it was 64-64 before overtime. Eastern Kentucky has seen 4 of 8 games against Division One teams stay under this total. Northern Kentucky has had four in a row stay well under this total in regulation.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* A game between these two teams should be a game played to a slow pace. Last year their meeting was just 58 possessions. That game finished at 110 points. It didn't have many free throws, so I don't think this one will be as low as that, but I think this line is a few points too high.

Morehead State was 69th in effective field goal percentage offense last year. The Eagles are 350th out of 363 teams in the country so far this year. The Eagles lost three star guys in Broome, Cooper, and Hollowell. Their offense has been very stagnant this season.

GA Southern has faced the 138th toughest slate of offenses. They have faced the 341st toughest (very easy) slate of defenses thus far. 

I think the defenses have the upper hand in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is a really high number, but it is really high for a very good reason.

So far this season, Texas A&M Corpus Christi has played the 350th toughest slate of opposing offenses in the country (there are 363 teams). Texas A&M CC really hasn't played a good offense all year. Well, they are about to play the team with the best offensive efficiency and best effective field goal percentage offense ratings in the country so far this year. 

Arizona has played three non-conference games against bottom 100 type teams this year. They put up 95 points or more in all three of them. I think they do it again here. 

The over is 8-1 in Arizona's last 9 non-conference games when they were favored by 10 points or more. In six of those games the game went over the total by 15 points or more. 

Consistently, Arizona has allowed their opponents to score a bunch of points late in these games when they are well ahead. For example, Southern scored 30 points in the final ten minutes. Utah Tech scored 32 points in the final ten minutes.

Texas A&M CC plays quickly and they foul a bunch. Arizona will get easy looks inside and get to the line a bunch. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags have played five straight games that finished below this posted total (118, 119, 109, 122, and 120 points). Fairfeld is 321st in the nation in tempo. The Stags are 289th in offensive efficiency. They are 174th in defensive efficiency. 

Yale has slowed their pace down a lot this year. The Bulldogs are 297th in tempo on the year (they were 88th last year). The Bulldogs are 120th in offensive efficiency and 63rd in defensive efficiency. Yale held Kentucky to 69 points last game. The Bulldogs also held Vermont to 44 points earlier in the year. 

The pace here should be very slow. Both teams are very good on the defensive boards, which I think is crucial when betting a low under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* McNeese State isn't playing the same way they have played for the last few years. This team is slowing the pace down a lot, likely because they know they are at a big talent disadvantage. McNeese State only put up 40 points at Tennessee a few days ago. The Iowa State defense isn't as good as Tennessee, but it is a top 15 defense in the country. 

Iowa State is coming off a bad loss to Iowa without their star player. The Cyclones should be locked in on defense here. Iowa State are 254th in overall tempo. They excel in forcing turnovers on defense, and McNeese State will struggle to get shots up in this one. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers are first in college basketball in defensive efficiency. Rick Barnes' team is playing some elite defense. They combine the ability to get a bunch of steals and block shots as well. They are holding opponents to far too many big midrange jumpers that are contested. Quality shots are tough to come by against this unit.

Maryland just struggled badly on offense against Wisconsin in their last game. The Terrapins have been good offensively on the season overall, but they have faced a lot of weak defenses when they put up their big numbers.

I see both of these teams as middle of the road type teams in tempo, and the defenses have a nice edge on the offenses. This is also a neutral floor.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Missouri State is a different team this year. They have the same coach in Dana Ford, but without star Gaige Prim down low this Missouri State team is far worse on offense. They are slowing things down and trying to win low possession games with their defense.

Missouri State has played 8 Division One opponents so far this year. Only one of those games has gone over this total and it was only 140 points. Their last three games have all finished at 117 points or fewer.

Purdue Fort Wayne has played only the 315th toughest slate of defenses this year. Fort Wayne is top 20 in the country in defending without fouling and 10th in defensive rebounding percentage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies are good at controlling the tempo. Montana wants to play slowly and I think they can get North Dakota State to play a slower paced game. 

A look at North Dakota State's schedule shows they have played 7 of their 9 Division One games against teams with a top 100 pace rating. North Dakota State is getting into track meets because the other team wants that. This is a very different opponent.

North Dakota State has been top 55 in the country in defensive rebounding and defending without fouling each of the last three seasons. 

Montana and North Dakota State have both played much tougher slates of offenses so far this year compared to defenses. I think their numbers are skewed some.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Marist Coach John Dunne said before the season his team needed to get back to playing hard nosed defense after they disappointed on the defensive end last year. Dunne has a long history of coaching teams who play slowly and are questionable at best on offense, but they can lock down opponents in the halfcourt. His team is back to doing that this season.

Boston University has had several very low scoring games already this year. In fact, four of their last six games have finished at 122 points or fewer. 

Marist's last three games have finished regulation with a total of 102, 91, and 122 points. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers have really picked up their pace significantly this year with Jordan "Jelly" Walker leading the way. UAB was pretty fast last year, but they are flying this season. They are playing 5.5 possessions per game faster than a year ago. UAB is 6th in overall tempo in the country. 

West Virginia is slightly faster than average, and the Mountaineers still pressure quite a bit especially in the halfcourt to try to get steals and quick scores the other way. 

Both teams excel in getting to the free throw line, and their opponent has fouled quite a bit. Additionally, both of these teams are great at second chance points, and both teams have trouble getting defensive rebounds. That's another way that they'll get on the line a lot also.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland State Vikings are 340th in tempo in the country. Cleveland State was held to 42 points last game by St. Bonaventure. The Vikings have had 5 of their 9 contests against Division One opponents finish at 127 points or fewer. That includes a 115 point total after overtime in one game.

Kent State is excellent on defense. The Golden Flashes are aggressive on defense and get a lot of steals. They do foul quite a bit, but Cleveland State is bottom 100 in the country in getting to the free throw line. The Golden Flashes held Houston to 49 points and Gonzaga to 73 points. This defense should do great against Cleveland State.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mick Cronin's teams are inconsistent on whether they play slowly or run. Cronin's teams though have a history of running against weaker teams when they are a big favorite. In his history as a head coach, Cronin's teams are 15-6 to the over as a home favorite of 20 points or more. They are 9-2 to the over when they are favored by 24 points or more. UCLA is favored by 27 points in this one. They should be able to name their score on Denver. 

Denver has been playing faster this year, and Denver is a bottom 50 team in defense in the country. Denver has yet to play an excellent offense. They will face a great offense here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Lafayette Leopards rank 361st in average possession length in the country. They are stalling in a big way on the offensive end. They are 311th in offensive efficiency. Lafayette's defense isn't great, but they have faced a very tough slate of offenses. According to KenPom, they have faced the 24th toughest slate of offenses in the country.

Quinnipiac is 63rd in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. The Bobcats have done a great job defending the three point line, and Lafayette puts up a ton of shots from long range. 

Both teams are good on the defensive boards so second chance points should be tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs have the best defense in the NBA so far this year. They are giving up just 1.066 points per possession. In their last ten contests, Cleveland is allowing only 1.024 points per possession. Cleveland is also playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Cavs are averaging just 94.7 possessions per game in their last ten games.

Donovan Mitchell is questionable and he missed the shoot around for this game. He's obviously a huge part of the Cleveland offense. Kevin Love is out for this game. 

Sacramento is a high scoring team, and that's why the total is this high. The Kings have been even higher at home though, and the Cavs have been good at dictating the tempo. 

Cleveland's last 11 games have stayed under this total in regulation. Only one game went over this number and that was an overtime contest.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs have gotten better defensively in recent seasons. Drake is 52nd in defensive efficiency so far this year. Drake is a good offense as well. The Bulldogs have played a bunch of fast paced teams in the early going. I don't expect Drake to turn every game into a track meet. In fact, both Wofford and Tarleton were able to slow the pace down against them.

Omaha has played a tough schedule so far this year. The Mavericks have a new coach in Chris Crutchfield. He has the team playing much slower this year, and they'll try to slow the pace down here. Omaha has a big weakness on the defensive glass, but Drake doesn't usually try for many offensive rebounds. They opt to get back on defense, and they are a bottom 50 offensive rebounding team.

I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. John's Red Storm and DePaul Blue Demons met twice last year. The two games had 173 and 193 points in them. The pace was 80 possessions in the first meeting and a ridiculous 83 possessions in the second meeting. 

St. John's is playing a bit faster this year than they were a year ago. DePaul is playing a tick faster as well. 

DePaul is better offensively this year. They do struggle with turnovers though, and that actually helps the over here. St. John's is going to turn those turnovers into points quickly here. The full court press will be on throughout in this one. 

DePaul fouls a lot and I would expect plenty of trips to the free throw line in this game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Pacific Tigers are playing much faster this year. Pacific has seen 7 of its 9 games go over this posted total. They rate 79th in overall tempo so far this year. They also rank 294th in defensive efficiency. On offense, they are excellent at not turning the ball over, and that helps them a lot with efficiency.

Northern Arizona is a terrible defensive team. They have been that way for many years. They have been a bottom 20 defense in the country the last two years. Their numbers this year are very weak once again.

Both of these teams foul a lot. Both are in the bottom 50 in the country in defending without fouling. Pacific is holding opponents to 60.8% from the free throw line. We know there is no such thing as free throw defense, so this will regress.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* A matchup of two of the very worst defenses in the country. Idaho is 345th in defensive efficiency on the year. North Dakota is 325th in defensive efficiency this year. A total set this low with two really bad defenses is pretty rare.

The pace of the game will be pretty slow, but I do think the efficiency will be there to get this one past the posted total.

Both the Big Sky Conference Summit League are well known for high scoring games with efficient offenses and really weak defenses. I think that plays out in a game like this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers are shooting a ton of 3's so far this year, and they have been falling at a very high rate. Wisconsin shot just 30.6% from long range last year, but they are at 37.4% on the season this year. Hepburn is a decent shooter, but he hit 34.8% from 3 last year and is up at 47.5% so far this season. 

Wisconsin obviously plays very slow. They are elite at forcing the opposition to play at their speed. Marquette is a top 25 tempo team in the country, and Wisconsin slowed the game down to just 69 possessions even with an overtime. The Badgers will slow the tempo here too.

Maryland has played the 241st toughest slate of defenses. The Terrapins have racked up points against teams like Coppin State, Binghamton, Louisville, etc. Wisconsin is a much tougher defensive challenge. 

Maryland is a solid defensive team too. Willard's teams always work very hard on defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Furman Paladins and High Point Panthers both really like to run. High Point is playing this new style with G.G. Smith as their new head coach. High Point is 14th in the country in average possession length this year. Furman is 51st. This game should be a track meet in terms of tempo throughout.

Furman's defense is propped up by a 61.5% FT percentage allowed. High Point gets to the line a lot, and they are shooting 69% from the line. 

Furman's offense is tremendous. They are efficient and run great sets. Furman has scored 88 points or more in four of their eight games so far this year. 

Neither team is good at protecting the basket, and I see plenty of easy inside looks here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns will have an excellent defense this year. Chris Beard's teams are always tremendous on defense, and this team has the athleticism to be a major problem on defense. Texas is forcing turnovers at a very high rate and Illinois has had trouble with turnovers on offense. Texas is 3rd in the country defending the 3 point line, and Illinois is taking a bunch of shots from long range.

Illinois is playing faster this year, but the Illini are also better on defense. They are 14th in defensive efficiency and 12th in effective field goal percentage defense. Texas is going to the basket a lot, but Illinois has a big height advantage in this game.

Madison Square Garden hosts this game, and it is one of the best under venues in all of college basketball.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Brown Bears have been putting in some really solid defensive performances of late. Brown has seen five straight games finish below this posted total. Brown is second in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are 53rd in turnover percentage forced as well. Brown has a fast tempo rating for the year, but they have played much slower in their last three games. 

Hartford is a really bad team this year. The Hawks had their coach resign the day before the season, and it is going to be a rough season for this team. They are stalling as much as possible on offense. They rank 336th in average possession length in the country. They are really weak on both offense and defense. One positive though is they have faced the 355th toughest slate of defenses (very easy defenses) and the 216th toughest slate of offenses thus far. Their numbers are a bit skewed.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cornell Big Red definitely play quickly, and they will want to run here. Cornell is 65th in tempo in the country. Lafayette slows things down to the extreme. They are 359th out of 363 teams in the country in tempo.

Lafayette has played only one game this year that has finished regulation with a combined score over 134 points. That was their loss to high powered St. John's who press all game long. 

Cornell hasn't played a team with a tempo ranking of any slower than 162nd on the year. This matchup will be a significant change from what they have been seeing so far this season.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have played seven games so far this year. The most total points scored in a North Texas game this year is 123. Five of the seven games have finished at 115 points or fewer. North Texas is the slowest paced team in the country. They are also one of the best defenses in the country.

North Texas is a big favorite here. With them laying a big number, I like the under even more. They have shown the ability to take the air out of the ball better than anybody else in the country when they have a big lead.

Omaha is playing completely differently this year for Coach Crutchfield. This is a new coach who is focusing on defense and slowing the pace down. Omaha is outmanned here, and they aren't likely to push the pace at all.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Quietly, High Point is off to a really good start as G.G. Smith takes over as their coach this year. He has decided to pick up the tempo a lot this season. They were 301st in average possession length last year. They are 24th so far this year. That's about as big of a jump as you will see. 

High Point has been attacking the basket and getting fouled a lot. They have also been getting a bunch of second chance opportunities. That is key here since N Florida ranks in the bottom ten in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. 

North Florida prefers to play quickly with Driscoll as their coach as well. This team has been one of the worst defenses in the country on an annual basis of late. 

Both teams rank in the top 75 in FTA/FGA so there should be plenty of trips to the charity stripe. Both teams struggle badly to get defensive rebounds as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana State Sycamores played somewhat faster last year under first year coach Josh Schertz. They have upped their tempo significantly this year. They have also been much more efficient. Indiana State is 15th in the nation in shot selection this year according to ShotQuality. They are also 4th in the nation in Rim and 3 rate. They are either getting to the basket or taking the 3 ball, which in recent years has been a good formula for success in college basketball (cutting out the tough midrange jumpers). Indiana State is 10th in the nation in average possession length this year.

Miami Ohio is 338th in defensive efficiency. The Redhawks have been one of the worst teams in the country the last two years at defending beyond the three point line. Miami has played the 308th toughest slate of offenses, and Indiana State is a clear step up from most of those teams.

The Miami Ohio offense has scored 80 points or more three times already this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Fairleigh Dickinson Knights rank 362nd in the country in defensive efficiency this season. This defense has been torched on a consistent basis. They have allowed 74 points or more against every Division One opponent this year. Fairleigh Dickinson has had games flying over the total despite playing only one team in the top 135 in tempo in the country. That was their track meet against SIU Edwardsville that finished 79-78. 

St. Joe's ranks 65th in the country in tempo. The Hawks are 11th in FTA/FGA and they should live at the line against a Fairleigh Dickinson team that can't get defensive rebounds and fouls a bunch. The Hawks aren't as tall as last year, and their interior defense has definitely slipped.

I expect a fast pace throughout here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Idaho Vandals have been a bottom 15 team in defensive efficiency the last two seasons. They have been even worse so far this year. Idaho ranks 359th out of 363 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. Idaho has blocked 2.6% of opponents shots. That is last in the country. The average in the country is 9%. The Vandals also are bottom 20 in the country in free throw attempts allowed per possession. Idaho has allowed 81, 82, and 81 points in their last three games. Those were contests against Utah Tech, Cal Poly, and Pacific. 

Northern Illinois ranks 84th in the country in tempo. The Huskies are pushing the pace this year. NIU has faced the 36th toughest slate of defenses so far this year. They have faced the 312th toughest slate of offenses. That tells me that Northern Illinois is capable on offense, but they have had some tough matchups (NW, GA Tech, Sam Houston are all very good defenses). 

NIU is definitely capable of giving up a bunch of points too. Illinois Springfield, not even a Division One school, put up 83 points in game one against NIU. NIU allowed 88 points to Sam Houston State, and they are not normally a good offense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kennesaw State Owls are a much improved team the last couple years under Coach Amir Abdur-Rahim. Kennesaw State went 1-28 in his first year with the team, but they keep getting a lot better. Kennesaw State is an above average offense playing at an average tempo. They have also faced a top 50 strength of schedule when it comes to the defenses they have faced. 

Mercer has had drastic splits on offense and defense the last couple years. Mercer is a much better offense than they are defense. The Bears give up far too many second chance opportunities and that is something Kennesaw State should take advantage of here. On offense, Mercer is top 50 in the country in 3 point percentage while Kennesaw State is bottom 15 in the country in 3 point defense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes have been a good defensive team the last couple years. They showed how good they are on defense in their last game by losing just 49-44 at Houston. They actually led in the final two minutes of that game against a tremendous Houston Cougars team. Kent State is 25th in effective field goal percentage defense.

South Dakota State commanded very high totals in recent years because of their insane efficiency on offense, but this Jackrabbits team isn't the same. South Dakota State is turning it over at a very high rate. They are bottom 5 in the nation in turnover rate on offense. Kent State is top 5 in the nation in forcing turnovers on defense. South Dakota State lost a star shooter in Baylor Scheierman and it shows this season. He's helping Creighton now, and South Dakota State is missing their star from last year.

This number is priced like S Dakota State has last year's team.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Nebraska Cornhuskers aren't anything like they were the last couple years. Nebraska is no longer nearly as offensively talented as they were with Bryce McGowens last year. They are no longer looking to push the pace as they have the last few years. Nebraska is attempting to win with defense. That isn't to say their defense is tremendous, but it is clearly improved. Nebraska is defending without fouling and forcing quite a few turnovers. 

Boston College has played a weak slate of defenses, and their offensive numbers are still horrid. Boston College has weak offensive sets and they rely on a lot of low percentage looks. 

I think this one is a sloppy game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* This is a rare game early in the season where these two teams have already met. New Mexico State now hosts UTEP after losing 67-64 in El Paso a few weeks ago.

The first game between these two was played to a fast pace of 72 possessions. Both teams shot the ball poorly. ShotQuality says the score should have been a total of 138 instead of the 131 it finished at. 

UTEP is 8th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. New Mexico State does foul a lot. New Mexico State was just 4/16 from 3 point range in the first game.

Both teams have shot the ball terribly from the free throw line so far this year, and regression to the mean in a positive way should happen at some point.

New Mexico State has really been pushing the pace, and with one team pushing pace this is a really low total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Xavier is 26th in average possession length so far this year. The Musketeers are pushing the pace in a big way. SE Louisiana is 55th in overall tempo as well. This one should be a track meet in terms of tempo.

Xavier has scored 84 points or more in 4 of their 7 games. They have only scored less than 78 points once (neutral site game against Duke). Xavier is going to put up a big number against an SE Louisiana team that has a bottom 30 or 40 defense in the country every single year.

SE Louisiana has shot the 3 ball pretty well the last few years and they get to the free throw line pretty often as well. In a game with this tempo I think they can score enough.

This one is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Prairie View A&M Panthers have played a relatively tough slate of defenses this year. This team is more efficient on the offensive end than almost any other SWAC team on a yearly basis. They have had a lot of non-conference overs through the years because of this as well. 

Rice is 54th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. Rice is also dead last at #363 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. The Owls are a really good over team because of these stats combined with their tempo, which is clearly above average. Three of their five games against Division One opponents have gone to 159 points or higher total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers are 27th in the NBA in tempo. The Cleveland Cavs are 29th in the NBA in tempo. This should be one of the slower paced games you'll see in the NBA regular season. 

Cleveland is first in defensive efficiency in the league when playing at home. The Cavs are 4th in defensive efficiency overall and the 76ers are third. A contest between two teams who work hard on the defensive end. 

The referee crew here is a big positive for the under. Two of the best under refs in the NBA are in this game tonight. Both Davis and Twardowski are nearly 54% to the under in their careers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers have played six games and five of those contests have been at 126 total points or fewer after regulation. Wisconsin is back to slowing things down more this year. Why? They have far less offense without Johnny Davis. They are a top 12 team on defenses in multiple major categories, and I expect them to continue to be excellent on the defensive end.

Wake Forest hasn't played a team this year who has ranked in the top 100 in effective field goal percentage defense. I think the Badgers defense will give them a lot of trouble in this one. The Demon Deacons prefer to play pretty quickly, but Wisconsin is great at controlling the pace.

Both teams are good on the defensive glass, so I wouldn't expect many second chance points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMKC Roos are favored by 5 points here. UMKC has scored 63 points or fewer in seven of their nine games on the season. This team is 356th (out of 363) in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. UMKC is 341st in average possession length, so they are really slowing down the tempo a lot.

Idaho State has been a bottom 40 team in tempo in the country each of the last two seasons. They take a lot of three point jumpers, but they aren't good at getting open looks from long range. They have played a much tougher slate of offenses than defenses so far this year and still their games have been lower scoring. 

I see a low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Toreros are a completely different team with Steve Lavin as their head coach this year. San Diego was 224th in average length of possession last year. They are 128th in that same stat so far this year. Lavin wants his team to push the pace this year. 

San Diego picked up Eric Williams from Oregon and he is the key go to guy for this offense. Their efficiency will jump this year on offense compared to a year ago.

Longwood has been a very good 3 point shooting team the last couple years. San Diego is allowing opponents to shoot 43.4% from 3 point range on the season thus far. The Lancers should get plenty of open looks here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Tech Hokies are 333rd in the nation in overall tempo. The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 356th in overall tempo. These are two teams who want to play the game in the halfcourt. 

These two teams rank 2nd and 3rd out of 363 teams in the country at defending without fouling. That is something I like to look for when taking a low under. 

Virginia Tech is a good offensive team, but I expect them to regress a bit as the season goes along. They have played a very weak slate of defenses thus far. 

Minnesota doesn't have many options on offense. This is a team that relies too much on a couple guys (Battle and Garcia).

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Place Bell Arena is a hockey arena in Quebec, Canada. This site has hosted several basketball games the last few days. A close inspection of these games has showed that shooting numbers have been way down across the board at this arena. The shooters are struggling with the unique backgrounds. 

I think this is just too high of a number at this arena. These two teams do play fairly quickly, but neither of them are lights out shooting teams to begin with. 

These are both teams who have a history of defending without fouling. Avoiding sending their opposition to the line is a big plus.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Purdue ranks 333rd in overall tempo this year. Duke is 316th (much slower than last year). 

Duke's defense has been fantastic this year. Kyle Filipowski is a 7 footer who clogs up the lane and changes things in a big way on the defensive end for Duke. Mark Mitchell's athleticism and length make him a major factor on defense too. I think the Blue Devils are far better on defense than most people realize.

Purdue's Zach Edey is obviously a force on both ends, but he'll be defended by much more athletic and long players than he is accustomed to seeing. Purdue allowed just 66 against a fast paced Gonzaga team, and the Boilers were able to control the pace in that game (just 68 possessions).

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Place Bell Arena is a hockey arena in Quebec, Canada. This site has hosted several basketball games the last few days. A close inspection of these games has showed that shooting numbers have been way down across the board at this arena. The shooters are struggling with the unique backgrounds. 

In this one, MTSU is an excellent defensive team who can create a bunch of turnovers and lead to wasted trips for the opposition. Montana State is 282nd in overall tempo and the Bobcats rely so much on their star Belo that it can hurt them a lot against quality defenses. Montana State has gotten 0.93 and 0.77 points per possession in their first two games at this arena. MTSU is the best defense they have played yet at this arena.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Campbell Fighting Camels (what a great nickname) rank 339th in average possession length. Stetson ranks 346th in that same statistic. Both of these two teams are looking to slow the pace down at all times. I see no reason to expect this to be anything other than a game played in the halfcourt all the way.

Last year these two teams met and the game finished 60-58 (118 total points). It wasn't a fluke either. It was just a very slow paced game and the two teams shot close to their season averages in that contest.

This one should be low as well. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game will be played in Copper Box Arena in London, England. The first two games played at this arena both went far under the total in regulation. Princeton's game went 9.5 points under the total. Northeastern's game was 20.5 points under the total in regulation before edging over the total by 1.5 points with overtime. This is a unique arena where I believe the shooting sight lines could be affected.

Princeton is 234th in average possession length. The Tigers have played a very easy schedule of defenses so far this year. Princeton is likely to be challenged a bit more by the length of the Northeastern defense. 

The Northeastern Huskies are 294th in average possession length so far this year. This team has played very slowly for many years in a row now. 

Both of these teams do a good job defending without fouling and second chance points should be hard to come by here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Hawaii Warriors are using 1.3 seconds more of the shot clock on average in every single possession so far this year. A drastic slowdown from this team. They aren't shooting the ball well, but the question mark about this team coming into the season was if they could consistently shoot the ball well enough or not.

Sacramento State has showed that they clearly want to play at a slower pace. They have gotten behind in some recent games and sped up, but in a neutral state this team wants to stall. The Hornets will be better on defense than offense under defensive minded Coach David Patrick. 

This is not a home game for Hawaii. This is technically a neutral site contest which is a positive for the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks have slowed down their tempo significantly this year. They were 192nd in average possession length last year. They are 355th so far this year. 

Missouri State has typically been a slower paced team under Dana Ford. Missouri State lost their star scorers in Prim and Mosley from last year. This is a team with far more question marks than answers on offense right now.

This game is played in the Bahamas on a neutral floor. Neutral court unders have been a great angle especially early in the season. In the last 15 years the unders are nearly 55% in games 1-8 on a neutral court.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats are playing even a bit slower than they did a year ago. Villanova is using 20 seconds of the shot clock on average. The Wildcats lost two of their stars from last year's team, and I expect them to be a little less efficient on offense this year. Gillespie and Samuels are huge losses on the offensive end.

Iowa State added a tremendous defensive presence in the offseason. Osun Osunniyi should make this defense even better. He is a tremendous shot blocker and he will change the game a lot down low. The Cyclones are 8th in effective field goal percentage defense in the nation so far this year.

Villanova should control the pace here. The Wildcats haven't let a single game this year get past 65 possessions. 

This is a neutral court game which is a positive in the long run for unders.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Riverside Highlanders have been a team that plays with a slow pace and wins with defense every year under Mike Magpayo. They are 301st in tempo in the country so far this year (average possession length). UC Riverside is coming off a low scoring game against a high flying offense in Wright State.

Abilene Christian's usually fantastic defense wasn't very good last night against Weber State. I think they will bounce back in this one. 

Both of these teams are great on the defensive glass. That really helps limit those second chance points that can be killer for unders.

Early season neutral court games have gone about 55% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under here.