Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes and Eastern Washington Eagles both play quickly. South Dakota is 57th in the nation in quickest pace on offense (average possession length). Eastern Washington is 83rd. That is out of 351 teams. There's no reason to expect anything other than a quick tempo for this contest.

The Eastern Washington defense is the worst unit on the floor here, and South Dakota's efficient offense should pick them apart. Eastern Washington fouls at a high rate and South Dakota is excellent from the line. 

Eastern Washington has shown many times this year they will keep the game going with the foul game, and they are likely to be down and could be in that situation here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Orlando Magic are without their top two scorers. Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier are both out for this one, and it will be really hard for the Magic to replace those two. Look for a disjointed offense from Orlando for this game. 

Atlanta has slowed the pace down a bit in recent games. The Hawks weren't having any luck trying to outgun opponents. They have played improved defense in the last few games, and I expect that to continue here. 

Marc Davis is one of the best under referees in the NBA, and he's part of the crew doing this game.

I don't think there has been enough of an adjustment to the total with Orlando's top two scorers out.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Rider Broncs decided to start pushing the pace last season, and they have continued that this year. The difference between last year's team and this year's team is this group is much more efficient on offense. It is the team getting accustomed to playing the style.

Rider's defense has dropped off from last year as Jimmie Taylor, their best defensive player from a year ago, graduated at the end of last season. 

Hofstra plays at a middling pace, but the Pride are consistently very efficient on offense and really bad on defense. Hofstra has ranked in the top 65 in the country in offensive efficiency each of the last four seasons. 

Rider has played 6 of their 9 games this year to a total of 165 points or more. Hofstra's last four games have all been over this number.

Look for both teams to put up a lot here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd have perfected Dan D'Antoni's uptempo system. Marshall has a bunch of scoring options, and they are going to put up big numbers all year long. Marshall pushes the pace to an extreme level. They rank 4th in the nation in average possession length on offense. 

Toledo has played faster this season. The Rockets went to Marshall last year and the game finished 111-105 in overtime. Before overtime the teams were knotted at 95. The shooting was exceptional in that game, so I don't expect that number, but with high tempo and two bad defenses I think this should get above the total.  

Toledo has already played two games that easily passed this total. Marshall has seen 6 of their 9 games go over this number.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos host the Sacramento State Hornets here. Boise State has a huge advantage in this one. Boise State should be able to coast home, and the Broncos have shown a willingness to slow the pace down drastically in the second half of games where they have a big lead.

Sacramento State has played seven games against Division One opponents and their highest total is 143 points. Boise State has only played two of their eight games over this total. 

Neither team plays particularly fast to start with, and Boise State's defense has been excellent. They are giving up the least amount of second chance points of any team in the country. Sacramento State is missing their best player and they'll have a very hard time getting open looks in this one.

I made this number significantly lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Celtics/Spurs Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs and Boston Celtics meet in San Antonio tonight. Boston has been the most consistent team in the NBA this year. San Antonio has played very well despite missing Leonard.

I consider these the best two coaches in the NBA. They are both defensive minded. Boston and San Antonio both like to play at a slow tempo, and I expect there to be a much smaller amount of possessions in this game than a normal NBA game.

San Antonio has been a good under team in the past ten years on their home floor. They have been an exceptional under team at home when playing against good opponents. The under is at 62% in the Spurs home games vs. a team with a win percentage of 65% or higher in the past ten years. In their last 30 home contests vs. a team with a win percentage of 65% or higher, the under is an impressive 23-7.

53% of the bets in this game are on the under, but the money is almost 85% on the under. The sharps are on the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams are very good. UT Arlington has one loss and it was by a point against a good Alabama team. They won at BYU. 

Northern Iowa has two losses and they are to North Carolina and Villanova. Northern Iowa is excellent at controlling the pace of the game. The Panthers rank 349th in average possession length (time on offense before shooting) out of 351 teams in the country. They aren't going to speed up for anyone.

UT Arlington would prefer to play quickly, but Northern Iowa is going put a zone defense up here to control the pace of the game. Arlington's weakness the last couple years has been their outside shooting. This Northern Iowa defense is likely to give them trouble.

Northern Iowa has played 8 games. Seven of those games have finished with a total of 126 points or less in regulation. UT Arlington's last three games have been below this total.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT Total* The Portland State Vikings have a new coach this year in Barret Peery. Peery said before the season he wanted this team to rank among the fastest paced teams in the country. They are doing it thus far. Portland State is pressing in the full court the entire game, and the Vikings rank in the top 25 in the country in steals forced. They are shooting 40.4% from 3 point range as a team. Portland State is excellent at dictating the pace of the game.

Loyola Marymount ranks 260th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Portland State ranks 241st in defensive efficiency. Opponents have shot the ball really well against both of these teams.

Loyola Marymount has played slower paced teams of late and that gives us line value here. Portland State is going to push the pace here in a big way.

Both teams rank in the top 25 in the country in offensive rebounds. Expect a bunch of second chance points and trips to the charity stripe.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Illinois Fighting Illini have picked up the pace quite a bit under Brad Underwood this year. They are trapping and forcing turnovers and looking to score in transition. Against teams that have a high turnover rate, Illinois has really run up the score. Austin Peay ranks in the bottom 50 in the country (351 teams) in turnover rate. 

Illinois ranks 32nd in the nation in tempo, and the Fighting Illini should get the steals and quick scores against this Austin Peay team. 

Both of these teams foul a lot more than the average in college basketball. I see plenty of trips to the line helping this one. 

Illinois has played five Division I teams that are ranked outside the top 100 in the country. The total in those games has been: 157, 151, 155, 165, and 159. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Hidden Gem Total* The Evansville Purple Aces are without star Ryan Taylor right now due to a foot injury. Taylor averaged 14.3 points per game last year, and he was averaging 21 points per game before the injury this season. Evansville is clearly without their leader on offense now, and I expect some bad offensive performances from them.

What is Evansville going to do? They'll slow the pace down as best they can. Even before Taylor was injured, Evansville ranked in the bottom 10 out of 351 teams in the country in pace of play. Expect them to really try to grind this game out.

Bowling Green has played a lot of high scoring games, but this is the first opponent they have played who plays this slowly, and the Evansville defense has been very solid the last couple seasons. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Gonzaga/Villanova CASH* The Gonzaga Bulldogs and Villanova Wildcats have been excellent on defense in recent years. 

Villanova has finished in the top 12 in the country in defensive efficiency in each of the last five seasons. Gonzaga has finished in the top 30 in defensive efficiency in each of the last six years. They were number one last year.

There's no reason to expect either defense to give up a lot of easy shots here. 

Madison Square Garden is the best under arena in college basketball. This is a huge arena and the shooting backdrop is difficult. The under has cashed at a better than 60% clip at MSG in college games with a total of 140 or higher in the past ten years. 

Expect a hard fought game with solid defense here. This number is too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Spurs/Thunder Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs weren't playing the kind of defense we expect at the start of the season. They have improved that dramatically in recent weeks. San Antonio ranks first in the NBA in the past 8 games in defensive efficiency. The Spurs also rank dead last in tempo in their past ten games. They are slowing things down and winning with defense.

Oklahoma City ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the season. The Thunder rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in offensive efficiency though. What about the Spurs? San Antonio ranks in the bottom half of the NBA in offensive efficiency as well.

Sunday has been the best day in the NBA for unders by a large margin in the past ten years. I see this being a hard fought game where the defenses have the edge.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats and Vanderbilt Commodores meet on Sunday. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in overall tempo. 

Kansas State mixes up defenses, and opponents are taking more time to shoot it against Kansas State than any other team in the country.

Vanderbilt was a very slow paced team last year, and they are that again this season.

The Commodores were more efficient on defense than offense last year, and they are again so far this year. Bruce Weber's teams are consistently better on defense than they are on offense.

This total has moved up from the open, and that gives us value on the under. Look for a tightly played game where the pace stays very slow.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Little Rock Trojans have played six games against Division One teams this year. Only one of those has gone over this posted total. That one finished at 142 points. 

Oral Roberts has played 7 Division One teams this year. None of them have ranked in the bottom 100 in tempo. They have played a bunch of fast paced teams. That changes in this one and the line is inflated here. 

Little Rock likes to run the clock and try to win low scoring games. Oral Roberts plays at a slow tempo as well. Both of these teams have been inefficient on offense so far this year. Both have been really sloppy with the basketball.

This total is several points too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Manhattan Jaspers were without best scorer Rich Williams on Friday and he is questionable here. Manhattan hasn't been good on offense with him, and without him they really struggle.

The Jaspers have slowed their tempo down drastically this season. They went from ranking in the top 35% of teams in pace of play to ranking in the bottom 25% of teams this year. 

Towson always prefers a slow pace, and the Tigers are led by a strong defense. 

This game is played in Northern Ireland on a neutral site. This is a positive for the under. Shooting percentages tend to be lower at neutral sites. There is a massive time change which doesn't help either.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights are without BJ Taylor right now. Taylor is the most important guy to this UCF offense. Without him, they were a complete mess last season, and it appears the same is true this year. UCF has scored 45 and 43 points in their last two games against West Virginia and St. John's. 

UCF will be great on defense again this year with Tacko Fall manning the middle and swatting shots away left and right. 

Missouri will play at a slow pace under Cuonzo Martin. His teams are always halfcourt oriented teams. Missouri has played several teams that want to run a lot this year, but UCF is similar in that they prefer a halfcourt game.

Look for good defense from both teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The South Carolina Gamecocks always play great defense under Frank Martin. Martin's teams play relatively quick on offense, but they aren't very efficient, especially since they lost Thornwell from last year's team. Sindarius Thornwell was the guy everything went through on offense for the Final 4 Gamecocks last year.

Temple has shot the ball really well this year, but this is an excellent defense they will go up against in this one.

Additionally, this game is being played at Madison Square Garden, which is easily the best under arena in basketball. The sight lines are tough here, and college kids have consistently had trouble with shooting in this arena in the long run. Neutral site unders early in the year is a profitable angle, and when it is MSG that is a big bonus.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston is an excellent defensive team. They are great at shutting down the opposition and making them take tough shots on the perimeter. 

Western Carolina was 348th in offensive efficiency out of 351 teams in the country last year. They are just slightly better this year, and they were held to 57 and 51 points by Clemson and Cincinnati.

C of C is without their best offensive player in Brantley, and that has caused them to slow their tempo even more in recent games. I think they win comfortably here and the defense leads the way.

I'll fade the early line move here. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds are pushing the pace as much as ever under Coach Simon this year. Southern Utah continues to be awful on defense as well. Southern Utah ranks 347th in defensive efficiency so far this year out of 351 teams in the country. Where were they the last two years? They were 350th and 349th. Awful. Southern Utah has a habit of fouling at an epic rate. They tend to do this when losing in the second half, and there can be some very high scores in the second half in their games.

Pepperdine is one of those teams that tends to play to the pace of their opponent, and in this case that should mean a very quick tempo. Pepperdine is great at getting to the line and they should get a lot of trips there in this one. 

A quick tempo and a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Penn has changed their offense this year. They are no longer a guard oriented team. They look to get the ball inside and that takes more time. Villanova has more shot blockers and length on the inside than just about anyone, and that should make it hard on Penn's offense.

The Wildcats are excellent on defense, and they prefer to play at a slow pace if they can. Villanova played some really high scoring games against teams in the top 20 in tempo early this season. Penn isn't going to want to run here, and I think the tempo stays slow.

This is one where the spread is big and it reduces the risk of a foul fest late. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* James Madison ranked in the bottom 30 in the country in pace of play last year. They should end up near the bottom in tempo again this year. 

George Mason lost their top two scoring options from last year. Marquis Moore was the guy that everything ran through, and without him I expect their offensive efficiency numbers to dip significantly this year. George Mason is playing significantly slower than last year, and that makes sense with less scoring options.

George Mason has only played one game that has gone above this total in regulation this year. James Madison has played a couple very fast paced teams and that has skewed this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star College Hoops Red HOT CASH* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have played significantly slower so far this year. Wake Forest has shot the ball at a very high percentage, but they haven't played against any good defenses.

Illinois looks to push the tempo under Brad Underwood, but I don't think they'll be all that efficient on offense when playing against decent opponents this year. Illinois hasn't played anyone ranked in the top 120 in the country in defensive efficiency. Most of the teams they have played have ranked in the bottom 100 in the country in defensive efficiency.

Illinois has played only one game this year that has gone over this total and that was 165 points against Marshall. Marshall ranks in the top five in the country in tempo. 

Wake Forest has only played one game that has gone over this total as well, and that was their first game of the season.

This should be a relatively high scoring game, but this number has gotten awfully high. I'll take the under at this level.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Red Hot CASH* The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are coming off two miserable shooting performances. They were playing at Syracuse and at Kansas in those two games. This is a massive step down in class. 

Oral Roberts made only 13/41 two pointers in their last game. They shot 33% from the floor overall in a loss to Penn State. 

When two teams are coming off extremely low shooting percentage, I like to look for overs in the next game. Why? The market usually overreacts. 

This total has already been pushed down a few points in the market. 

Oakland is playing at an extremely quick tempo this year. Oral Roberts slows the game down a bit, but they are terrible on the defensive glass and Oakland should get second chance and transition opportunities here. 

Oakland should be good on offense overall this year, and this is a pretty low number for a game they are involved in. Neither defense is very good.

The over is 8-1 in Oral Roberts' last 9 home games.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star CBB Late Night BAILOUT* The Texas State Bobcats are one of the slowest paced teams in the country every single year. This year won't be any different. Danny Kaspar's teams often don't have a ton of speed and athleticism, so they utilize a game plan that reduces the amount of possessions and forces their opponent into a style they aren't typically playing.

Canisius generally plays to the pace of their opponent. They play a lot of teams who like to run, so their tempo looks faster than it would in a different conference. They aren't playing a team who runs here.

This a neutral site game. Neutral site unders in the first month of the season are 56.5% in the last ten years when the total is 135.5 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star CBB Early Bird Special* Northeastern lost their top two scorers from last year's team. The Huskies always play at a slower than average tempo, and so far this year they are playing even slower than normal. In some years, they have been efficient on offense, but this year they are really struggling shooting the ball.

Utah State is happy to play at a slow pace as well. The Aggies aren't a team that looks for transition opportunities very often at all. 

This a neutral site game where both teams aren't accustomed to the gym. Neutral site unders in the first month of the season are 56.5% in the last ten years when the total is 135.5 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There are 351 teams in Division One College basketball. These two teams are ranked 349th and 350th in terms of amount of time they use up of the shot clock. Basically, these are two teams who want to use up the clock as much as possible. When they get together, the tempo should stay very slow.

This a neutral site game. Neutral site unders in the first month of the season are 56.5% in the last ten years when the total is 135.5 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Washington Eagles have only played one game this year that has gone over this total. That was against UNLV. UNLV is playing extremely fast this year. 

Eastern Kentucky has had 3 games against Division I opponents, and 2 of the 3 were under this number.

This game is being played on a neutral floor. Neutral floor unders are 56.5% when the number is 135.5 or higher in the first month of the season. These are unique shooting backdrops and that usually lowers the shooting numbers a bit. 

Neither of these teams have been pushing the tempo this year. This number is several points high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces have consistently slowed the pace of the game down. Evansville hasn't played a game this year that went above 140. The Purple Aces have played their last three games to a final total of 123, 116, and 127. 

Fresno State has shot the ball really well in their first couple games. Fresno State has consistently been a team that struggles shooting the ball in the past couple years. The Bulldogs are likely to regress to the mean on offense again this year. 

This game is played on a neutral floor. The under is 56.5% in the past ten years on a neutral floor when the total is 135.5 or higher.

I think the defenses play well here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Two teams known for playing slowly and controlling the basketball meet on Monday night. Wisconsin has less good offensive options than they have had in recent years. The Badgers will defend well though, and they do a nice job of defending without fouling. 

The Baylor Bears are always near the top of the charts in shot blocking. They make everyone work hard for their baskets in the paint. Baylor typically relies heavily on offensive rebounds, but Wisconsin is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country.

This total has been pushed up from its opening number, and I see that as a mistake.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates have been a really bad shooting team in recent years. They don't play very fast either. Cleveland State is clearly better on the defensive end than they are on offense right now. This Cleveland State team scored only 38 points against Rutgers. They scored only 57 points against Akron in a game with 82 possessions! 

The move upward on this total doesn't make any sense to me. Until these teams prove it consistently to me, I'm going to see them as teams that have to make the game ugly to win on a regular basis.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a neutral court game and those are much more favorable to the under in the early season. In fact, neutral court unders with a total of 135.5 or higher are 56.5% in the last ten years.

Wyoming plays very quickly, but they aren't all that efficient on offense. The Cowboys are good on defense and they have multiple shot blockers.

South Dakota State plays at a fairly average pace. They are good offensively, but Wyoming is much better than most defenses they play against. 

It isn't common to see a posted total set this high without both teams being excellent on offense and both teams running.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Early season games played on a neutral court have cashed at almost 57% in the last 10 years when the posted total is 135.5 or higher. This is a neutral court, and it is the first time either of these teams have played in this gym. 

Elon's Coach Matheny talked in the preseason about wanting to slow things down a bit this year from their tempo in the past. They have a perfect opponent to slow it down against here. FIU is a very slow paced team that has played to a bunch of low scoring games in the last couple years since Anthony Evans took over.

I think this number should be 136.5, so we're getting 5 points of value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Quinnipiac has a new coach this year in Baker Dunleavy and he has talked in depth in the offseason about concerns on the offensive end. The team has shot the ball well through two games, but that was against Dartmouth and Brown. They step up in competition in a big way here. 

Colorado has a lot of length and athleticism, and they should be a solid defensive team this year. Colorado is a big favorite here and long term unders have been the way to go with a big spread like this.

On a neutral floor, the under has the edge because of the unique shooting backdrops for both teams. This is a place neither team has played. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies won't play as fast this year under Coach Mike Hopkins as they did under Lorenzo Romar. Hopkins has this team playing the Syracuse zone he learned under Jim Boeheim, and that typically limits the possessions in a game. 

Washington has been getting to the line at an extremely high rate through two games and that's where their offense has come from. They should get to the line less against a Providence team that has been good at defending without fouling under Ed Cooley.

Cooley's Providence teams have typically been better on defense than offense. He mixes up the defenses very well.

This game is at Madison Square Garden. The under is a very good bet in college games at Madison Square Garden because of the sight lines being so difficult. In the last 45 college hoops games at MSG as a true neutral court has seen 31 games stay under the total and 14 go over the total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are without three key players for this game. Jason Carter is their best big man and they'll certainly miss him a lot here. Carter is a good offensive rebounder and a decent scorer. 

Clemson no longer has Jarron Blossomgame, and he was the heart and soul of the offense at Clemson. The Tigers won't be as good on offense this year. What did Brad Brownell have as his focal point during the offseason? Defense. He was disappointed in the team's defense last year. Clemson has routinely been a great defensive team under his helm, but they weren't very good there this year. The team took a trip overseas in the offseason, and Brownell believes the team is set to be much better on defense this year.

This is a neutral site game. In the past ten years, neutral site games with a total of 135.5 or higher in the first eight games of the year have gone 57% under the total. That's a huge sample size. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* San Diego State is playing a whole new brand of basketball under Brian Dutcher. A San Diego State beat writer said Dutcher gave the Aztecs a choice in practices leading up to the season either push the ball in full court drills or get on the line and run sprints: either way they were going to run. Off missed shots Dutcher doesn't want the team running set plays, rather he wants them looking to score in transition.

Arizona State is one of the faster paced teams in the Pac 12, and the Sun Devils are likely to be happy to play fast in this one. They have a great backcourt and they have speed all over the court.

San Diego State no longer has an athletic shot blocker in the paint like they have had in recent years. Defense has been a struggle for Arizona State in recent years.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New Mexico Lobos are playing a very unique style this year. New Mexico is going with the run and stun. Paul Weir is their new coach, and he saw that the team didn't have enough size this year and decided the team would press and run at an extreme level. Yes, they only played Northern New Mexico in their first game. Still, putting up 147 points (a record) and playing the game to a pace of 100 (blistering fast) shows the way this team will play.

Weir said, "I mean, the reality is we are a little undersized. The reality is we lack one or two McDonalds All-Americans on our team. What we have is our depth. What we have is our teamwork. What we have is our elevation. What we have is our speed, our shooting ability." They will run like crazy this year.

Nebraska Omaha has finished among the top nine in the country in tempo in each of the last five seasons. That's really impressive when you consider there are 351 teams. Omaha plays very quickly. They aren't likely to slow the game down at all here.

A really fast pace leads to value on the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon State Beavers are going to be a much different team this year than last. Typically, you see value on a team's games in some way when there is a major stylistic change from one year to the next. I think that means Oregon State overs will have value for a bit here.

Oregon State was walking it up and stalling as much as possible, but that's because they were shorthanded due to injury. Tres Tinkle is the team's best player and he was injured. Now, Tinkle is back and he'll be one of the best players in the Pac 12. Ethan Thompson is running the show as a freshman in the backcourt for Oregon State and his speed is a major weapon. Oregon State will play much faster and score a lot more points this season. 

Wyoming ranked 15th in the nation in tempo out of 351 teams last year. The Cowboys definitely want to run. Look for Wyoming to try to get transition buckets here and Oregon State will play to their style as they change things up this year.

I think the oddsmakers are a bit slow in adjusting here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames ranked in the top 25 in the nation in terms of pace of play last year. They are going to run a bunch again this year. St. Joe's was a team last year that played to the pace of their opponent. St. Joe's played very fast in their first game against Toledo this year and that game saw 185 total points.

UIC's opponent in the first game was NC Central and they stalled the entire game and played a zone defense to slow the game down. I don't expect St. Joe's to do that, and UIC should get out in transition here.

St. Joe's is without Brown and Kimble here, and that's why the total has come down some. Still, I see guys like Newkirk and freshman Taylor Funk being able to score quite a few here. 

UIC has star Dikembe Dixson back from an injury last year, and he will be great for the Flames this year.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Quinnipiac Bobcats have a new coach this year. They were coached by Tom Moore last year. He coached the team to crash the boards and run as fast as possible. That led to constant run outs for the opposition. It led to a bunch of high scoring games.

Baker Dunleavy is the team's new coach. He is the son of Mike Dunleavy and he has been an assistant at Villanova under Jay Wright. Dunleavy will attempt to use the Villanova 4 out and 1 in game plan and win with spacing and solid defense. That should mean a much slower paced team than last year's Bobcats team.

Dartmouth's Evan Boudreaux was one of the best players in the Ivy League. Before the season, Dartmouth's coach called Boudreaux "the guy we run our offense through" and "our leader", well that hit a speed bump when Boudreaux announced his intent to transfer on Thursday. Announcing two days before the season starts really makes it hard for this team to adjust its offensive game plan.

This total is awfully high for a game between two teams with a bunch of offensive question marks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Old Dominion Monarchs played at the third slowest tempo in the country last year. The team plans to play noticeably faster this year. Don't expect track meets, but there should be value looking to go over their totals early on. Jeff Jones said, "We don't have a choice but to play faster" based on personnel this season. 

Towson has been among the leaders in the nation in free throw attempts per possession the last couple years. They crash the offensive glass. They also do a lot of fouling on defense though. Both those are obviously good for the over.

Last year, these two met and the final was 61-58. Any kind of tempo change from Old Dominion should push this one higher, because last year's shooting numbers were subpar in that 61-58 game as well.

Early in the season, refs are usually a little quicker with the whistle, and I imagine there will be a lot of free throws here.

I'll go over this low total. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA on TNT Total SMASHER* The Cleveland Cavs have allowed 112 points or more in 9 straight games. The Cavs rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Houston's offense started the season slowly, but they are on fire of late. Houston ranks first in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last three games. Who is number two? The Cleveland Cavs.

Cleveland is playing faster this year, and Houston is always looking to run. I expect a fast tempo here and both offenses have clear edges at multiple spots vs. the opposing defense. 

I see a lot of open looks from 3 for Houston, and that usually means a big number for the Rockets. LeBron and company should put up a bunch here as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been playing tremendous defense so far this year. Oklahoma City ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Sacramento ranks second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. They are likely to have a lot of trouble scoring in this one. 

Oklahoma City and Sacramento both rank among the five slowest teams in the NBA (pace of play) in the last five games. The Kings actually rank dead last in the NBA in pace for the season as a whole.

Oklahoma City should be able to get their points here, but I don't see there being enough possessions for this one to go over the total without really high shooting numbers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Sunday Early Bird Special* Sunday has easily been the best day of the week for unders in the NBA in the long run. Day game unders have the highest win percentage. 

This one is in Los Angeles, where it will be 12:35 pm when this one tips off. Day game unders 5pm EST or earlier start time with a total of 193 or higher are 34-15 (69.4%) in the last 49. Day game unders in general are above 55%. 

Miami's Hassan Whiteside is one of the best defensive players in the NBA. Whiteside missed several games earlier this year, and the Heat defense didn't look good. Since he has returned, the Heat have been a top ten defense in the league in terms of efficiency.

Both the Clippers and the Heat play at a pace that is slightly slower than the league average. Look for this one to stay under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics are playing great defense so far this year. Boston ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma City ranks second in the league in defensive efficiency.

What about tempo of late for these two teams? Oklahoma City ranks 25th in the NBA at only 97.55 possessions per game in their last three games. Boston ranks slowest in the NBA at only 94.99 possessions per game in their last three games. That's more than a full possession slower than any other team in the league in their last three games.

It's rare you can get two teams playing great defense and playing slowly and catch a total of 205. Here we do, and I think it gives us solid value. There was a reverse line move on the under in this game at CRIS as well, and CRIS is one of the sharpest books there is. Another positive sign for this one.

The under is 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 games vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in the Celtics last 5 Friday games. A 10-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star TGIF NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz toyed with the idea of playing faster in the offseason, but they are back at the bottom of the NBA in tempo now that the season is here. Quin Snyder's team has likely determined they need to win low scoring games because they don't really have the offensive threats needed to win shootouts on a consistent basis.

The Toronto Raptors worked hard on defense in the offseason. Toronto actually ranked second in the NBA in defensive efficiency before being torched by Denver in their last game. They are now eighth in defensive efficiency. I expect Toronto to play much harder on the defensive end here.

Utah is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency now. The Jazz should get the tempo to their liking in this one. 

Six straight Utah Jazz games have stayed under this total in regulation despite the fact they have played the very fast paced Suns and Lakers in this period.

The under is 23-8 in Toronto's last 31 road games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Pelicans rank 21st in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and it's by a wide margin. Minnesota is allowing 1.133 points per possession on the year.

Minnesota ranks 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. New Orleans ranks tied for 10th in offensive efficiency. 

We have a meeting between two teams who prefer to run and both struggle badly on the defensive end. I expect a lot of easy looks in this game. 

Minnesota ranks in the top five in free throws attempted this year, and New Orleans has committed the third most fouls per game of any team in the league.

I see a close high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Brooklyn Nets and Phoenix Suns meet on Tuesday night. Phoenix isn't the same team they were under Earl Watson. Jay Triano has encouraged the team to continue to play relatively fast, but he wants them to be more under control. He's also got the team working much harder on the defensive end.

Brooklyn isn't the same offensive powerhouse without Jeremy Lin. D'Angelo Russell isn't 100 percent right now, and Quincy Acy will miss this game. 

Brooklyn will play quickly, but this total is about as high as you ever see in the NBA, and I think the current Suns team should be lined differently than the Suns team from the start of the season when it comes to totals.

One of the best under refs in the NBA is Haywoode Workman, and he's part of the crew for this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* One of my favorite angles in the NBA to play is early games on Sunday going under the total. From the beginning of the season through March: the under is 214-144 (60%) in games played between 12 pm and 4 pm eastern. This game fits the system.

I see the Hawks as a team that is likely to struggle to score this year without much help for Schroeder. The Bucks are known for controlling the tempo and playing in the halfcourt. They ranked in the bottom five in the NBA in terms of tempo last season.

Ersan Ilyasova is a 11 points per game guy and he's out for the Hawks here. There isn't much reliable scoring on this team to start with.

At this level, I see value on the under in this early game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors have consistently been one of the best teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency the last three years. They have started out this season playing some really bad defense. Draymond Green and Steve Kerr both made extensive comments about this after their very tight win over Toronto a couple days ago. 

Golden State's defense will improve. This team has too many good defensive players and a defensive-minded coach. They aren't going to continue to be this bad. In fact, I imagine they will finish the year in the top six or eight in defensive efficiency once again.

Washington has made a focus on playing better defense this year. The Wizards rank 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Neither team ranks in the top five in pace in the NBA so far this year, and a total this high is extremely rare even for teams like Golden State.

It isn't an easy bet to make, but at this level I think the under holds value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Timberwolves want to push the tempo more this year. Thibodeau's team has all kinds of offensive weapons. With Towns, Butler, and Wiggins this team has three very high level scorers. Teague is a solid point guard and he has good speed. The Timberwolves preseason games showed how quick they want to play. The team believes Teague is a great guy to have to help them speed up the game.

The Utah Jazz aren't going to go really fast this year, but Quin Snyder and his team have been adamant that they are looking to play faster than they did a year ago. 

While the Jazz have a good defense, the Timberwolves do not. In today's era of the NBA, this is a pretty low total. 

Minnesota's offensive efficiency and the pace point to an over in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Opening Night Totals TKO* The Denver Nuggets offense absolutely took off after Jokic was given a bigger role in the offense in the middle of the season last year. After the All-Star break, Denver ranked first in the NBA in points per possession. The Nuggets are going to be a top five offense in the NBA again this year. They also want to push the tempo.

Utah is still going to be a solid defensive team, but the big change for Utah this year should be their tempo. Quin Snyder always has said he wants to speed things up. The Jazz haven't done it. Beat writers in the area said in practices the Jazz are playing significantly faster. While I don't like to read much into the preseason, the Jazz played quicker and averaged 112.3 points per game.

The posted total last time these two played was higher than this. Denver's totals were consistently 220 late last year. I know it can't be that high here with a very good Utah defense, but I see this as a chance to take advantage of some value on the over thanks to Utah's change of pace.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Finals CRUSHER* The Cleveland Cavaliers averaged a ridiculous 1.361 points per possession in their win in game four. That is the worst defensive efficiency number Golden State has posted all year. 

Cleveland's record setting scoring means this total has been moved up by several points. While I don't love playing unders in the matchup between these two teams, this number is too high for me to pass it up. 

The pace has slowed down as the series has moved along here, and that generally happens as things tighten up and there is more importance on that game. Without record shooting numbers, it is hard to get a total score of 232 points. 

The regular season meetings between these two finished at 217. This is the highest total in NBA finals history. I'll look for a high scoring game, but not this high. The defenses improve here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Cavs/Celtics NBA Red Hot CASH* The Cleveland Cavs head to Boston looking to closeout the Boston Celtics. The Cavs have dominated this series for the most part, but you have to respect the way Boston has fought very hard the last couple games.

Boston completely changed the way they play when Isaiah Thomas went down with an injury. The Celtics can't try to play quickly without their main offensive guy. Boston has decided to post up Al Horford a lot and try to score in the post or pass it out of the post to get open 3's. The post ups have slowed the tempo of these games down a lot. 

The average tempo in games one and two was 95 possessions per game. In games 3 and 4, the pace was 90.1 possessions per game. That kind of tempo change is drastic, and it makes a posted total of 216 awfully high.

The Cavs are capable of shooting a great percentage from the floor, but they shot nearly 60% from the floor last game and the game still went under the total. The Cavs are averaging 1.20 points per possession and the Celtics are averaging 1.12 points per possession in the last two games. Those are very high efficiency rates on offense. Those are more likely to drop than go up.

Here's a system that backs this under play:

-The spread is between home team -3.5 and +12

-The home teams win percentage is 64% or lower

-The home team in this game lost the previous game by 5 points or more

-The total is 193.5 or higher

-The percentage of bets on the under is 42% or lower

In this situation, the under is a very impressive 41-15 in the last 56 (73.2%). This game fits this situation. 

Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Playoff 100% System SMASHER* The Boston Celtics were trampled over in game one of this series. Boston has a great coach in Brad Stevens, and I think he'll make some key adjustments in game two to make them more competitive. Since Cleveland is a much more talented team than Boston, the Celtics are best served to slow the pace of the game. They did in game one. They just need to play a lot better defense than they did in game one. Look for more doubling of LeBron and better switching from the Celtics in this one.

The first game played to a pace of 94 possessions. That was the slowest paced game between these two teams all season. It got to 221 points (one point over this total) because the Cavs scored 1.27 points per possession. The Celtics scored a decent 1.073 points per possession as well.

It's hard not to like the under when teams are playing that slowly and need to shoot such a high percentage. The Cavs are very capable of torching the nets, but at this number I have to take the under. 

There's a specific system that backs. Here's the playoff system:

-The home team lost the previous game by more than 6 points. 

-The spread is anywhere from home team -3.5 to home team +6.5. 

-The total is 195.5 or higher

-The road team allows 44% shooting or higher

-The home team allows 45% shooting or higher

The under is a perfect 13-0 in this system. Why? My theory here is the home team shows pride after being beaten at home last game, and they play better defense as the oddsmakers adjust the total upward. The under then gets more value. The mediocre defensive numbers make sense because we know that in the long run mediocre or poor defenses get much better in the playoffs because there is a lot more effort exerted on that end of the floor.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Monday Game 7 Red HOT CASH* The Washington Wizards and Boston Celtics meet in a crucial Game 7 matchup on Monday night in Boston. The winner moves on to meet the Cavs. The loser goes home for the year. 

The later you get in a playoff series in the NBA, the slower the tempo generally is. When a team is on the brink of elimination, they typically slow the game down and play much better defense. 

I had the under in game six, which cashed in easily. I don't expect the shooting numbers to be as bad in game 7, and the number has been adjusted lower. Still, I see value on the under. Why? Look at the pace at which last game was played. The average pace in this series has been almost 99 possessions. Last game, the game was played to a tempo of just 93.58 possessions. That's a dramatic difference and at that kind of pace it takes some very good shooting or a bunch of free throws to get past 210 points. 

A couple angles of note-

1. In Game 6 and Game 7 of the NBA playoffs- when the spread is 7 points or less and the under is getting 51% or less of the overall bets, the under is a whopping 73-37 in the last 110. That's 66.4%. 

2. In that same scenario from above- when the Boston Celtics are involved in the game- the under has cashed 13 straight times.

The Celtics have been elimination game under machines. Because the number has been dropped by a lot I won't make it a big play this time, but I will once again take the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Celtics/Wizards 100% System Play* The Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards square off in Washington DC on Friday night. The Wizards took care of business in the first two games at home in this series, and they'll have to do that again here if they are going to keep their season going.

Throughout this series so far, both offenses have been extremely efficient. The tempo has averaged 99 possessions. The Celtics are averaging 1.13 points per possession. The Wizards are averaging 1.10 points per possession. Both of these are well above even their regular season averages. Generally, in the playoffs the offensive efficiency numbers go down.

I think this is an opportunity to get good value on the under. The later in the series we get, the slower the tempo generally becomes. The importance of the games mean better defense is played as well.

A couple great systems here. First, in a game 6 or 7 of the playoffs, when the spread is no more than 6.5 points and at least 50% of the overall bets are on the over, the under is a whopping 72-37 (66.1%). That alone is a tremendous angle.

Let's make it even better. In the Celtics last 12 games that fit this system, all 12 of them have stayed under the total. This is a perfect 12-0 under system on Celtics elimination games staying under the total.

This number is inflated by a few points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs meet in Game 6 in Houston. Kawhi Leonard is expected to play by many, but he is still listed as questionable for this one. 

The Spurs won in overtime in Game 5. That was a game that was played to by far the slowest tempo of any game in this series during regulation. The game finished at 217 points even with an overtime. 

Over the years I've found that the tempo slows down and typically the defenses get better when more is on the line. There's a bunch on the line here. Houston is looking to avoid elimination from the playoffs.

There's a strong system that backs this. In a Game 6 or Game 7 in the NBA playoffs with the following information:

-Home team shoots 45% or better from the floor

-The home team win percentage is 67.5% or lower

-The spread is no more than 7.5 points in either direction

The under is a whopping 38-13 (75%) in these situations. This game fits this situation.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bulls are looking to try to stay alive after losing 3 straight to the Boston Celtics. 

The Bulls are expected to be without Rajon Rondo again in this one. Without Rondo, the pace of the games has slowed down drastically. The first couple games were pacing at about 97 possessions per game. The last three have been 93.5 on average. That's a big drop and it makes it hard to surpass this total. 

For some perspective, the 93.58 possessions the last 3 games have averaged out to is slower than any team in the NBA played on average during the regular season. We know that Game 6 and Game 7's in the playoffs often get slower. When there is so much on the line, the game slows down and the defenses usually get better.

In Game 6 and Game 7 situations, the under is a perfect 15-0 in the last 15 games with these specifics-

-The total is 191 or higher

-The spread is between home team -7.5 and home team +5

-The home team has won 60% or less of their games on the year

-The home team's defensive field goal percentage allowed is 45.6% or lower

This game fits the system. Look for a slower pace and a hard fought game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards play Game 6 of their series on Friday night. Game 6 and Game 7's in the NBA playoffs have been good under plays in general, and when you take a closer look at specific stats the trend gets even stronger.

When the home team in that game has won 62% or less of their games, and the under is getting 37% or less of the bets, the under is 26-8 in the last 34 games. That's a pretty strong trend.

The pace has slowed down in this series. The slowest game by far was Game 5. The Hawks have a much better chance of winning if they slow the game down. The Hawks ranked fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the regular season, but they ranked in the bottom five in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Atlanta needs to slop this game up to try to continue on to Game 7. 

With the importance of the game, 210 is an awfully high number. Backed by long-term trends, I'll definitely side with the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* This is a Game 6 where Memphis is looking to stave off elimination. NBA elimination games have typically been strong under plays, especially in particular situations. This game fits a couple of key situations.

When it is game 6 or game 7 in the NBA playoffs and the home team has a win percentage of less than 62%, and the spread of the game is between home team -6 and home team +7 points, the under is a whopping 48-19 (71.6%). 

These two offenses absolutely went off last game, and that caused the oddsmakers to move the number up. The Spurs scored 1.323 points per possession last game. The Grizzlies scored 1.231 points per possession. This is record territory. The pace was played to a VERY slow 85 possessions. If they keep playing at that pace, the under has significant value.

The Spurs were one of the top defenses in the NBA and the Grizzlies will fight hard defensively with their backs against the wall.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA System Play PERFECTION* The Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks played an extremely low scoring game in Game Four. That game finished 30.5 points under the posted total. This kind of huge difference from the posted total is going to create a response from the oddsmakers. We've seen that result in the posted total going from 195 last game to 191.5 in this game. 

Keep in mind that the posted total in the first game between these two was actually 200.5 when it first came out. A nine point adjustment from game one to game five is a huge adjustment. 

Toronto and Milwaukee are both underperforming drastically on offense compared to their season numbers. Toronto has been the least efficient offense in the NBA playoffs so far through four games. They are averaging only 0.94 points per possession. In the regular season, they finished sixth with 1.098 points per possession. The Milwaukee defense is no better than average, and I expect Toronto to shoot the ball better. Milwaukee's offense averaged 1.068 points per possession in the regular season. They are now at 1.014 points per possession in this series.

There's a strong system play backing this one. When the last game went under the total by more than 27 points and in the following game the home team is favored by 4.5 points or more, the over is a perfect 16-0 in the 16 times this situation has come up in the last 10 years.

The tendency is for the offenses to bounce back after such a terrible showing. With the strong angle and the reduced line, I'll take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Clippers/Jazz Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers meet in an important game four matchup in Salt Lake City. 

Utah won the first game in LA, but they have lost the last two games. Chris Paul put on a show to win the game for the Clippers late in the fourth.

Blake Griffin is out and Rudy Gobert is doubtful for this game. The under was 11-8 in the 19 games Griffin missed during the regular season. There's a lot more pressure on Paul to be great on offense when Griffin isn't in the game.

The pace of this series has been very slow. The average pace in the first 3 games is 91.5 possessions. These two teams are playing almost exclusively in the halfcourt. The shooting percentages have been extremely high in this series. Last game alone, the Clippers averaged a whopping 1.25 points per possession and the Jazz averaged 1.18 points per possession. That kind of efficiency isn't sustainable in the long run.

Look for things to go back to a normal rate. Remember, the first two games in this series stayed under the total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Sunday Afternoon MONEYMAKER* The Oklahoma City Thunder have successfully slowed the tempo down in this series. Now, they just need to get some improved defense. Still, the fact that the average pace in this series is 99.6 possessions per game is very telling. It's really difficult to consistently get to a total this high when you aren't playing any faster than that.

The free throw numbers have been really high the last couple games, and the Thunder shot better than 55% last game. That game still only cleared this total by 3.5 points. 

This game fits a nice long-term system. The team with the lower winning percentage is hosting the game and the spread is between -2.5 and +4.5 on the home team. The total is above 190.5. In this situation, the under is 58-23 (71.6%) in the last 81 games.

This total is several points too high. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs are no strangers to really low scoring games against each other. Though regular season games are generally higher scoring than playoff contests, 3 of the 4 regular season games between these two finished below this posted total. That includes one game that finished 95-89 in overtime. 

Memphis scored 1.238 points per possession last game against a really good Spurs defense. I don't think that is going to happen again. The Grizzlies aren't very efficient on offense this year, and the Spurs are good at guarding without fouling.

The tempo of each of these games has been really slow. The average pace of the games in this series has been 86.88 possessions. That is five possessions slower than the next slowest paced playoff series thus far.

The defenses should be better in this one. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets aren't playing all that fast in this series. The pace of the first two games averaged 100 possessions. That's much slower than the regular season games between these two teams.

The first game stayed under the total by a huge amount as Oklahoma City languished on offense. Game two went over this number by two points as there were 65 free throws in the game. 

There is an angle on this game that fits perfectly, and it is a very good long-term winner. The under is a whopping 57-21 in this situation. Here are the factors that enter the equation.

-The road team has a higher winning percentage on the year than the home team.

-The total is 190.5 points or higher. 

-The spread is within a range of -2.5 on the home team to +4.5 on the home team.

That fits this game perfectly. I see this total being a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Celtics/Bulls Red Hot CASH* The Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics have finished with 208 points total in each of the first two games. When you consider only that, the line of 207.5 makes a lot of sense. Let's look a little deeper though. 

The average pace is only 97 possessions per game through the first two. The Bulls are averaging 1.111 points per possession through the first two games. In the regular season, the Bulls averaged 1.046 points per possession. That kind of jump in offensive efficiency in the playoffs is almost unheard of. 

In the playoffs, defenses toughen up and the pace slows down because of the importance of the games. No game is more important than this one to the Celtics, who absolutely have to win this game. Look for improved defense from them here.

In the regular season, these teams met four times. None of those four games finished higher than 207 points. Playoff games are generally lower scoring, and I think the first two games being high is giving us value on the under. 

There is an angle on this game that fits perfectly, and it is a very good long-term winner. The under is a whopping 57-21 in this situation. Here are the factors that enter the equation.

-The road team has a higher winning percentage on the year than the home team.

-The total is 190.5 points or higher. 

-The spread is within a range of -2.5 on the home team to +4.5 on the home team.

Look for a return to normalcy and an under here. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Playoff Early Bird Winner* The Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks played four times during the regular season. Three of the four games went under the posted total. That's important because generally the defense ramps up significantly in the playoffs and games are lower scoring because of the importance of the game.

Both of these teams play at an average tempo, so there shouldn't be an extremely quick pace. These two defenses have matched up well in the past, and I expect them to be good again here.

Early games on Sunday have always been strong to the under, and first round playoff games have been good under plays in the past as well.

This game fits a nice playoff system: Play on the under in a first round playoff game that starts before 6 pm eastern and the total is at least 190.5. The under is 35-17 in the last 52 games that fits this system.

The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Regular Season Finale CASH* The Orlando Magic have decided to play much faster late in the season. In their last eight games, Orlando ranks fourth in the NBA in tempo. For the season as a whole, they rank 14th in the league in pace. The Magic are experimenting with a quick pace as the season comes to a close. 

Orlando's defense has suffered in a big way when they have experimented with playing faster. The Magic are dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. 

Detroit has some good young players who are getting some minutes now including Ish Smith at the point guard spot and Boban Marjanovic, and I see them being able to score on this bad Orlando defense. 

Orlando's offense is coming off one of their franchises worst all time offensive performances. After a game like that, it is generally a good idea to expect a much better performance. The shooting numbers are unlikely to be that bad again, and these professionals usually show some pride.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Phoenix Suns have been really good on offense down the stretch. Not only are they pushing the pace, but they are being much more efficient on offense in the last few weeks of the season. Tyler Ulis is doing a great job running the point for this team, and he is getting guys like T.J. Warren and Devin Booker more open looks.

The Sacramento Kings just gave up 135 points last game to the Houston Rockets. Sacramento has now allowed 117 points or more in three of their last five games. 

On the other side, Phoenix has allowed 120 points or more in six of their last nine games. The Suns defense is brutal. Offensively, Phoenix has scored 116 points ore more  in six of their last nine games.

Neither team has anything to play for, and I expect the tempo to be quick all the way in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Sunday Night 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves meet on Sunday night in a game that means nothing to either team. I'm not even sure either of these teams actually want to win this game. When you have no motivation to win a game, the first thing that goes is the defense.

At the end of the regular season, the over has done better than the under in the past few seasons, and that has been especially true in games between teams who have no shot at the playoffs. 

Minnesota ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 8 games. The Timberwolves aren't even pretending to try on defense right now. The Lakers aren't good on defense either. Minnesota has played faster of late, and I think this will be an uptempo game where both teams get a lot of easy shots.

The over is 7-0 in Minnesota's last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Pacific Division. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Los Angeles. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings overall between these two teams. A 23-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Pistons aren't the same on offense without Reggie Jackson. He was averaging more than 14 points per game, and this team doesn't have many guys like him who can get their own shots at any time. 

Toronto was embarrassed by blowing a big lead last night, and the Raptors will want to bounce back here. 

This game is important to both teams with the Pistons still technically alive for the playoffs and the the Raptors fighting for positioning near the top of the Eastern Conference.

Both teams rank in the top 7 in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past ten games. Detroit ranks second to last in that same time period in offensive efficiency. 

Both teams rank in the bottom ten in the league in terms of tempo.

The under is 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 games when playing on zero days of rest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games when playing against a team with a winning home record. 

The under is 8-0 in the Pistons last 8 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the Atlantic Division. A 31-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Sunday NBA BEST Bet* The Golden State Warriors have quietly been a tremendous under team of late. The under is a whopping 16-2 in games Kevin Durant doesn't play this year. 

Golden State has surprisingly slowed their tempo down drastically. I believe it was to focus on their defense, and it is working very well. Golden State ranks 18th in the NBA in tempo in their last eight games. That means they are playing slower than the average NBA team during that period.

The Warriors are also first in the league in defensive efficiency during that time period. They are allowing only 0.978 points per possession in that period.

Washington ranks 11th in the league in tempo during the last eight games. The Wizards offense has been less efficient on the road by a large margin this year.

Taking the under late in the year when two good teams are playing against each other is a 60% plus angle in the past five years. 

The under is 7-0 in the Warriors last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. The under is 10-1 in the Warriors last 11 home games. A 22-1 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Bucks and Dallas Mavs play a game that tips off at 2:35 central time on Sunday. These early start time games have trended strongly toward the under in the past few years, so that is a nice bonus for this one.

Dallas will be without Seth Curry here. Curry is averaging 12.8 points per game on the year. Milwaukee's Malcolm Brogdon is questionable with a back injury and he is averaging 10 points per game on the season.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom five in the NBA in tempo in the past month. The tempo should be very slow in this game. Neither of these teams are terribly efficient on offense either, and with some good offensive players missing, the defenses should have the edge.

The under is 7-3 in the Mavs last 10 road games. The under is 14-6 in the Bucks last 20 games. 

The early sharp money is on the under. I agree and I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 11th in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. The Charlotte Hornets rank 27th in the NBA in tempo in that same period. I wouldn't expect the pace of this game to be all that fast, especially for a game with a posted total set this high.

The Charlotte Hornets defense has been really bad of late, but I expect that to show positive regression over the next few games. After all, Charlotte's defense ranks better than the league average for the year.

Oklahoma City is playing slightly better on defense of late, and the Thunder are much better on defense at home. 

The under is 7-0 in the last 7 Thunder games when playing as a home favorite with a total of 207 or higher. The under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 games in OKC between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Final 4 TOP Play CRUSHER* We're down to the final four teams left standing in the tournament. Now, things get a lot more intense. The teams have even more pressure on them, and things get a little tighter.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs rank first in the nation (351 teams) in defensive efficiency. The South Carolina Gamecocks rank second in the nation in defensive efficiency. It's hard to not like an under when you have the top two defenses in the country squaring off against each other.

Gonzaga's offense is solid, but they aren't up to par with their defense. South Carolina's offense struggled most of the year, and the Gamecocks can go through some long scoring droughts.

What else do I like about this play? This game is being played at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale. This is where the Arizona Cardinals play. It's a football stadium, and anytime you find a place that isn't built for basketball, you will have a difficult shooting backdrop. 

With the nerves of this time of the year combining with the massive football stadium and the two tremendous defenses, I like the under here. I think this game stays in the low 130's. 

Take the under big. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets meet in a key Western Conference clash on Friday night.

Houston is coming off a loss last night to Portland in the late night game on TNT. James Harden is dealing with a minor wrist injury, and he shot only 2/13 from 3 point range on Thursday night. Harden also attacked the rim less frequently than normal.

Golden State beat Houston on the road earlier this week 113-106. The Warriors defense has been the best in the NBA in the past ten games in terms of efficiency, and it really hasn't been even close. Golden State is allowing only 0.957 points per possession in their last nine contests.

Golden State has also played at only the 13th quickest tempo in the league in their last nine games. The Warriors aren't running as much as they were in the past, and they are winning with defense.

This number is so high that it only takes one low scoring quarter to cash this one.

The under is 6-0-1 in the Rockets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 7-0 in the Warriors last 7 home games. An 18-0 angle.

Take the under.

*4 Star NIT Total DOMINATION* The TCU Horned Frogs and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets meet in the NIT Finals on Thursday night. 

Early in the NIT you can bet that there are a lot of teams who don't want to be there, and the over is a great play in those games. Late in this tournament, the teams are very motivated to want to win something. I think both Georgia Tech and TCU are highly motivated now to finish the deal. That motivation leads to better defense.

Georgia Tech ranks as the #252 offense in the country in terms of efficiency. The Yellow Jackets just aren't very good shooters. They rely on getting in the lane and doing damage in there, and TCU has some good shot blockers. On the other hand, Georgia Tech is very good defensively. The Yellow Jackets are sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. I love the way this team works hard on defense at all times. 

TCU will look to slow the pace of the game down, and the Horned Frogs don't get to the free throw line much at all. I think this Georgia Tech defense will be one of the best defenses they have played against this year.

Neither team fouls much at all on defense, and that's a big perk with the new NIT rules (no one and one's). My numbers made this one in the high 120's. 

Now, for an angle that is hard to overlook. The under is a whopping 21-3 in the last 24 NIT semifinal or final games. Why is that important? These games are played at Madison Square Garden where, the under has been golden in college basketball in the long run. This is a tough arena for shooters.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs host the Golden State Warriors Wednesday night. This is obviously a big game for both teams. 

There is a strong system that I follow late in the season in the NBA. In the system, you play the under when two good teams are playing each other on or after game number 58 of the regular season. If both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher, and the game is a conference game, the under is hitting at a 60% clip in the last ten years.

Recently, I decided to take this system a step farther. When the home team plays at a pace of 96.2 possessions per game or slower on average, the under is a whopping 114-59 (66%) in the last ten years. This game fits this system as the Spurs average 96.1 possessions per game.

Golden State ranks only 12th in the NBA in tempo in their last 9 games. The Spurs rank 25th. The Warriors have slowed things down without Durant, and the Spurs have been slow paced all year.

Golden State is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last nine games, and it isn't even close. The Spurs are fourth in the league in defensive efficiency in that span. Expect a tight game where the defenses work very hard.

The under is 7-0 in the Warriors last 7 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their last game. 

The under is 3-0-1 in the Spurs last 4 games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two in San Antonio.

A 35-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Tuesday CBB Red HOT CASH* The UCF Golden Knights and the TCU Horned Frogs meet in the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night. 

In the NIT and all of the small postseason tournaments, the over often has value for the majority of the tournament, but once you get this far into the tournament things change quickly. 

In the last 29 NIT Semifinals or finals, the under is 23-6. Madison Square Garden certainly plays a huge role in that. MSG is the single best under venue in the country when it comes to college basketball. It is a massive gym where shooters often struggle to find the range because of difficult shooting backdrops. 

Additionally, now the teams are really invested in this tournament. No one wants to go home now. The defensive effort increases at this point in the tournament by a large amount.

We have UCF who ranks second in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. TCU ranks 58th in defensive efficiency as well. Two good defenses and two teams who don't foul much.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors meet on Tuesday night in a big clash in the Western Conference. Obviously you don't think of unders when you think of these two teams, but Golden State has changed their stripes of late. This will be a contrarian play, but I'm taking the under here.

Golden State ranks 13th in the league in tempo in their last ten games. Earlier in the year, Golden State ranked 1st in pace of play. Narrow it down even more, and you'll see that Golden State ranks 21st in pace of play in their last five games. The Warriors have slowed things down in a big way. 

Golden State also ranks first in the NBA by a wide margin in defensive efficiency in the last ten and last five game sample sizes. Houston has been a league average defense this year.

Golden State ranks only 9th in offensive efficiency in their last ten games. 

With a total set at 234, this is set at such a high level that any one quarter being low should keep it under the total.

The under is 13-1 in the Warriors 14 games this year when playing without Kevin Durant. The under is 38-14 in the Warriors last 52 games. The under is also 4-1 in the last 5 games between these two teams.

The first two meetings between these two both stayed under the total in regulation. In this one, the Warriors don't have Kevin Durant's 25.3 points per game. The Rockets also don't have Ryan Anderson's 13.5 points per game due to an injury.

Take the under. 

*4 star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bulls have been terrible on offense of late. In their last 12 games, the Bulls ranks 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. They are middle of the pack on the defensive end.

Milwaukee ranks sixth in defensive efficiency during that same time frame. The Bucks are middle of the pack on offense.

Milwaukee also ranks 29th in the league in tempo in their last 12 games. The Bucks have slowed down the pace drastically of late. Chicago ranks 18th, so they are slightly slower than the average team as well.

The oddsmakers haven't adjusted this number down enough for the new tempo Milwaukee is playing at of late.

The under is 6-0 in the Bucks last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 5-0 in the Bucks last 5 home games overall. The under is 6-0 in the Bucks last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. A 17-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Angeles Lakers take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night. The posted total here is high, but it isn't high enough.

In the past six games, the Los Angeles Lakers rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and it isn't even close. Los Angeles is allowing a ridiculous 1.209 points per possession in their last six games. They've clearly given up on this end of the floor.

The second worst defense in the NBA in the last six games is the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are allowing 1.142 points per possession during that time. 

Both teams rank near the middle of the pack in offensive efficiency. The offenses should get plenty of open looks in this one. 

The Lakers continue to push the pace, and they rank in the top five in the NBA on a consistent basis in tempo. 

This game fits a nice late season over angle. Two teams who both have a winning percentage of 45% or less and the spread is 7 points or less either way. The game must be played in the last 12 games of the regular season. In the past ten years, in these spots, the over is hitting at a 61% clip.

The over is 5-0 in the Lakers last 5 vs. the Western Conference. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the Timberwolves last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 20-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB Sweet 16 TOP Play!* The Florida Gators and Wisconsin Badgers square off in what should be a really good game on Friday night at Madison Square Garden. 

Florida ranks third in the nation in defensive efficiency. Wisconsin ranks seventh in the nation in defensive efficiency. Finding good looks should be very difficult for the offenses on Friday night. 

Madison Square Garden is the best under venue in college basketball. The under is a whopping 54-29 in the last 83 games played at Madison Square Garden. 

The shooting backdrop at MSG is tough enough for NBA shooters, and it has been too much for most college players. Very frequently there are some bad shooting numbers in games here. Specifically, three point field goal percentages are lower in games here by a large margin.

Wisconsin is excellent at controlling the pace of the game. I don't expect Florida to be able to run here. Neither of these teams are elite on the offensive end. Both teams are good at defending without fouling as well.

I think this game stays close the whole way, and I expect a final in the mid 120's. Take the under big. 

*3 Star Sweet 16 TGIF Total DOMINATION* The South Carolina Gamecocks were out of this world good on offense in the second half of their win over Duke last weekend. I had the over in that game and felt very lucky to have won that one.

The Gamecocks went long stretches in that game doing absolutely nothing on offense, and that's a concern for their offense moving forward. Baylor is a lot better defensively than Duke. The Bears rank 13th in the country in defensive efficiency. Their size and shot blocking ability on the interior should bother South Carolina a lot here.

South Carolina ranks fourth in the country in defensive efficiency. The Gamecocks force loads of turnovers (4th most in the country) and Baylor's weakness on offense is turnovers. The Baylor guards make too many poor decisions with the ball. That should lower their offensive efficiency quite a bit here.

Finally, this game is played in Madison Square Garden. The under is a whopping 54-29 in the last 83 college basketball games played at Madison Square Garden. This is a very tough gym for shooters, and I think we could see some ugly shooting numbers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Thursday Night Sweet 16 CASH* The Arizona Wildcats and Xavier Musketeers meet on Thursday night in San Jose. This is a new arena to these teams and that's a negative for shooting percentages. It's a hockey arena with relatively difficult shooting backdrops as well.

Xavier shot well over their season averages in their first two games in the NCAA Tournament. They made 11/17 from three point range in their 91-66 win over Florida State. The Musketeers now go up against an Arizona defense that only allows opponents to shoot 30.9% from long range. I think Xavier's shooting numbers come back down in this one.

Arizona has been relatively inconsistent on offense over the course of the year. The Wildcats are certainly good on offense, but they aren't elite.

Both of these teams like to play at a slow tempo, and with a total set this high, it will take some good shooting numbers to push it over the total. 

Last weekend's run on overs in the NCAA Tournament propped this number up a few points. 

The under is 5-1 in Xavier's last 6 NCAA Tournament games. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Chicago Bulls have been the worst offense in the NBA in the past ten games, and it isn't even close. Chicago is averaging 0.978 points per possession during that time. The second worst offense during that time is averaging 1.02 points per possession. Chicago ranks ninth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games.

The Toronto Raptors rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Raptors have been able to manage pretty well without Kyle Lowry thanks to their improved defense. They should play well against this bad Chicago offense. On the other side, Toronto's offensive efficiency numbers are down without Lowry, and that should come as no surprise.

A look at the recent pace of both teams shows both of these teams in the bottom ten in the league in tempo. Chicago is actually in the bottom five in tempo in their last five contests.

The under is 8-2 in the Bulls last 10 games. The under is 11-5 in the Raptors last 16 games. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The over has been the way to go in the past in the second round of these smaller postseason tournaments. With the new rules when it comes to no 1 and 1's and no 30 second reset on common fouls, the scoring is up a decent amount. 

It would be hard for me to take an under, and in this particular game, the total is set several points too low.

Cal State Bakersfield held Cal to some terrible shooting last game, but Cal is terrible offensively to start with and they were without their two leading scorers. It won't be as easy against Gian Clavell and the Colorado State Rams offense. 

Bakersfield does play slowly, but they also rank in the top 15 in most fouls committed this year. That's important since the new rules will magnify those issues. 

Colorado State's offense is high quality and the Rams played much quicker in their first postseason game than they did in the regular season. 

With a number set this low and the new rules, I'm on the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Akron Zips are excellent on offense, but they have really struggled defensively this year. Inside the MAC, overs were golden this year because there were so many good offenses and bad defenses. Akron fits the mold nicely.

UT Arlington just put up more than 100 points at BYU. UT Arlington loves to run, and I think they'll try to dictate the pace here. The Mavericks have a star in Kevin Hervey, and I'm not sure Akron has anyone who can guard him.

UT Arlington hasn't seen a big man like Isaiah Johnson for Akron, and he should do some real damage here. 

I see both teams scoring a lot in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins are an excellent offense and they play very quickly. There's no doubt they are capable of putting up a big number. In this case though, I feel like they are up against a team that has what it takes to turn it into a lower scoring game.

Cincinnati's Mick Cronin talked extensively in his interview with the Cincinnati media about the team's need to slow the game down and turn UCLA into a halfcourt offense. He said Cincinnati needs to use the clock and make UCLA work on defense for the length of the shot clock. Cincinnati is a top ten defense in the country. The Bearcats should be able to make UCLA take tougher shots than they are accustomed to taking.

Cincinnati ranks among the slowest 25 teams in the country, and they have made it clear they want to stall here. With a good defense and a team slowing the game down, this is a lot of points. 

I think this game will be tight, and I'll look for a low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Sunday College Hoops BEST Bet* The Duke Blue Devils and South Carolina Gamecocks meet in Greenville, SC on Sunday night. It should be a great atmosphere since there will be a bunch of fans there from each team.

South Carolina likes to run and the Gamecocks attack the rim well. They rely heavily on getting to the free throw line. The Gamecocks are led by a really underrated player in Sindarius Thornwell. 

Duke's offense has been good all year, and it has been excellent of late. The Blue Devils have too many weapons for most defenses. While South Carolina's defense is certainly good, they haven't been up against an offense this efficient all year. The Gamecocks defense commits a ton of fouls and Duke is great at the line at better than 75%. 

These games are being called very tight in the NCAA Tournament, and I think free throws push this one over the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Baylor Bears are great at slowing the game down. Baylor ranks 331st in the nation in tempo. The Bears aren't going to let USC turn this game into a track meet. In the past, USC has been extremely fast paced. They are only slightly faster paced than the average team this year.

USC has been slowed down to a very slow tempo against both Providence and SMU. They shot the ball well in both games, but this Baylor defense ranks in the top ten in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have been good at defending without fouling this year. USC ranks 5th in that category and Baylor 58th in the nation.

Two good defenses here and a total that is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Saturday Night CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks are now playing at the slowest pace of any team in the league, and it isn't even very close. If you look at their last 11 games, Milwaukee's games are nearly a full possession per game slower than anyone else in the NBA. The Bucks have decided that they want to win games by slowing things down and winning low scoring contests.

Golden State's offense is obviously very good, but on the whole, they have been a lot less efficient than normal of late. Their totals continued to be posted too high. The under is a whopping 36-17 in their last 53 games. Golden State is actually 19th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last 19 games. Golden State has been top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency all year long.

With Milwaukee slowing things down and Golden State playing good defense, this total is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star College Hoops Total DOMINATION* Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo. For this game to go over the posted total, there will have to be some pretty high shooting percentages. A total set at this price with two teams who play as slowly as MTSU and Butler is rare. 

MTSU is a very good team and I believe they'll be well prepared for this game. When they won against Michigan State last year, the Blue Raiders were just thrilled to have won one game in the tournament. This year, I expect MTSU to be extremely focused on reaching the Sweet 16.

Butler has played in a number of very low scoring games this season. The Bulldogs defense is much better than it was a year ago.

Both teams are excellent on the defensive glass so second chance points should be rare.

Take the under.

*4 Star Friday Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins are a tough to play unders with, but I have to do it here. UCLA faces a Kent State team that somehow got through the MAC title game despite being short on talent. Kent State grinds and Jimmy Hall is a really good player for them, but outside of him, the Golden Flashes are at a big talent disadvantage here.

If you are Kent State, you have to know the only way you have a chance in a game like this is to pound it inside and slow the game down. There's no way Kent State should want to run with UCLA here.

UCLA is likely to win this one going away, and the Bruins have plenty of reasons to want to rest their stars late in the game here. Lonzo Ball and TJ Leaf are both at less than 100 percent now. They'll play again Saturday and that is a game that should be more competitive. 

On a neutral court where shooting backdrops are more difficult, this number is extremely high. That is especially true when you don't expect fouling late in the game with it being a blowout, and you expect one team to be trying to stall.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames have been playing really fast all year. UIC ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Flames are good at attacking the rim and getting to the line. That's important with the new experimental rules in this tournament. Getting rid of 1 and 1's and putting in all 2 shot fouls will definitely lead to more points. UIC shoots over 71% from the line. 

Stony Brook tends to play at a fairly slow pace, but in their non-conference games they did get out and run with some teams. I think their tempo looks slower than it truly is based on Stony Brook playing in a conference where everyone stalls. 

Stony Brook shoots 72.2% from the line, which is a big help with the new rules. 

I think this one gets to 150, which gives us some value on the line here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits in the first round. South Dakota State ended the season playing very well, but the jump from playing Summit League competition to Gonzaga is massive.

South Dakota State scored at will through the Summit League play, but that is largely because no one in that conference is any good at defense. Take a look at how South Dakota State scored against teams in the non-conference slate. They only scored 58 against UC Irvine. They scored 59 against E Tennessee State. They scored 53 against Cal. 

Gonzaga has the second ranked defense in the country. The Bulldogs have so much athleticism on defense and they should hound South Dakota State here.

The move up to 156 points gives me plenty of value here. Gonzaga should score a lot here, but a total of 156 can be hard to reach when one team is struggling to score. I think 150 is about right.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Princeton Tigers get things tipped off in the Round of 64 with this battle. Princeton is a dangerous team given their unique style of play. The Tigers will look to slow the game down as much as possible.

Princeton played a number of games that were paced to less than 60 possessions this year. In fact, four of their last seven games have played to 59 possessions or slower. I think this will be another game that is that slow.

Notre Dame plays in the ACC where most of the teams try to push the pace. The Fighting Irish are one of the slowest teams in the league. In this one, Notre Dame will get to play their preferred style.

This one is on a neutral floor where shooting percentages are typically lower than normal. Neither team gets to the free throw line much at all. I think this number is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes were the fastest paced team in the Big Ten this year. Iowa had trouble finding opponents who wanted to run with them most of the year in the Big Ten. They won't have that same problem here.

South Dakota ranks 27th in the country in least time on average to put up a shot. The Coyotes are going to run with Iowa here. The Hawkeyes are 21st in that same category.

This is a smaller postseason tournament game, and these have trended strongly to the over in recent years. The early rounds of these games have trended over at a really high rate. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys rank 11th in the nation in tempo. This team has been great at turning every game into a track meet this year. 

Eastern Washington is a great offense. They have shooters on the outside and a great scorer inside in Wiley. The Eagles have been able to shoot the ball well all year long. They generally play at a slower tempo, but their offense is good and their defense is very bad.

The smaller postseason tournaments (CIT, NIT, CBI) have been great to over bettors in recent years. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

Plenty of pace and scoring chances in this one.

Take the over.