Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Under* The Presbyterian Blue Hose had a nice year last year. They lost just about everyone from last year's team though. That included their head coach Dustin Kerns, who did a great job with this program. The Blue Hose didn't return a single double digit scorer this year. 

Presbyterian has a new head coach in Quinton Ferrell. Ferrell was an assistant coach at College of Charleston, where they have been known for their relatively slow pace and extremely strong defense. In their first couple games of the year, Presbyterian has slowed the game down quite a bit. This isn't a team with much scoring depth, and I think they'll want to play lower scoring games.

Morehead State ranks among the 30 slowest paced teams in the nation so far this year when it comes to average length of possession. They slowed down a Samford team that wants to play very quickly. The Eagles aren't likely to be pushing the pace too hard here either.

With the new rules in college basketball helping the under thus far, a total like this between two teams who lack scorers is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under*   (4 star play down to 128- 3 star play down to 125.5*

Wyoming has slowed their pace down to a crawl this year. The oddsmakers have adjusted, but I don't believe they have adjusted enough. Wyoming played really quick a couple years ago, and they were in the middle of the pack this year. They should finish among the 5 or 10 slowest teams in the country in pace this season. They will likely be a decent team defensively, but their offense is inefficient. 

Fullerton lost their two star scorers in Ahmad and Allman. The Titans are one of the better defensive teams in the Big West. Fullerton offensively should struggle with efficiency this year as they look to find a new identity on the offensive end. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Missouri State was an automatic under last year, and until I see something different I'm riding the under train again here. Missouri State uses up the clock very well and they play excellent defense. Cleveland State has slowed down so far this year, and I don't think they'll push the pace. This is a Cleveland State offense that is very inefficient as well.

I see this one staying in the 120's. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand on Tuesday night.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Star TOP Play Over* The Mississippi State Delta Devils have played at a ridiculous pace in their first three games. Their defense is arguably the worst in the country as well. The Delta Devils have given up 110, 143, and 134 points in their first three games.

Western Michigan does play slower than those other teams. I don't think the Broncos will score 130 points, but I also think they'll put up a big number. This will be the worst defense they face all year. 

I think this one is lined quite a bit too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Florida A&M Rattlers got much better defensively last year. Florida A&M went from 289th in effective field goal percentage defense two years ago to 70th a year ago. The Rattlers do have significant problems on the offensive end though. Florida A&M ranked 347th in the country averaging only 0.894 points per possession a year ago.

Florida A&M was also among the 40 slowest teams in the country in terms of pace last year. They will play slowly again this season. Florida A&M saw 6 of their first 9 games last year stay at 128 points or lower. Their first three games this year have finished with totals of 125, 115, and 130 points.

South Dakota is the much better team here, and they should be able to coast to a victory. The Coyotes have been great from 3 point range so far this year, but some regression should be expected there. Florida A&M has been good at defending the 3 ball the last couple years too.

South Dakota has been happy to slow the pace of the game down with a lead under Todd Lee. I would expect the same here.

This is a neutral site game and that is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Dusty May has a really deep team, and he has said that he wants his team to be uptempo on offense. May said the team is healthier this year (Ingram and Sebree were hurt last year), and their improved depth will help them play faster.

We all know Nate Oats wants to run at Alabama. It is no secret that Oats had great success at Buffalo by forcing the pace in a big way. The slowest overall tempo his teams at Buffalo had still ranked 39th in the country in fastest paced. The last two seasons, Buffalo's average possession length was among the five fastest in the nation.

Alabama played their first game to 84 possessions- so they were absolutely flying up and down the court in that one.

We should see a really quick pace here, so if we can avoid an ugly shooting night- I like the chances of this one being a high scoring affair. 

I think both of these teams have improved offenses from a year ago.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Denver Nuggets have played at by far the slowest pace in the NBA. Denver is averaging just 97.05 possessions per game. That is nearly two full possessions per game slower than the second slowest team in the league. 

Minnesota is playing at the fastest pace of any team in the league. The Timberwolves do play fast, but a closer look at their schedule so far and you'll see they have played a lot of very fast paced teams. Minnesota hasn't played a team all year ranked slower than 20th in tempo. They have also played 5 of their 8 games against teams ranked in the top nine in the NBA in tempo. 

Denver ranks 9th in defensive efficiency in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 15th. Therse two teams rank 20th and 22nd in offensive efficiency.

Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the long run in the NBA. Sunday divisional unders have done particularly well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* St. John's put up 109 points against Mercer in their first game. Mike Anderson brings renewed energy to this St. John's basketball program. The Red Storm have a bunch of quickness and Anderson believes the talent matches his scheme nicely. Anderson's teams always want to run and full court press. St. John's forced that first game to a blistering pace of 83 possessions.

Central Connecticut State coach Donyell Marshall has talked about wanting to play quick. If they want to play quick- here is their chance. C Conn State's defense is very weak and they turn it over a lot. St. John's should put up a really big number here. 

If the pace is as quick as I believe it will be here, it won't even take great shooting numbers to get to this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Neutral site unders have done really well early in the season in college basketball. Since 2005, in games 1-8 of the season on a neutral court and a total of 134 or higher the under is 55.1%. That's a large sample size.

This game is played in Hawaii and neither team is accustomed to playing here. There have been some really low scoring games in neutral site games here in the past. This is a gym with a bit of a poor shooting backdrop, and Hawaii is obviously a long way away from home for both teams.

Pacific doesn't have enough offensive weapons to play quickly. Damon Stoudamire's team has slowed the pace down significantly in the last couple seasons. 

South Dakota and Pacific are two good defensive rebounding teams. I wouldn't expect too many second chance opportunities.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen host the Veteran's Classic on Friday night. This is a game that means a lot to the Navy program for obvious reasons. East Carolina is their opponent here. 

East Carolina ranked 319th in effective field goal percentage offense last year. Navy ranked 319th in effective field goal percentage offense last year. 

Navy struggled with getting a lot of their shots blocked last year. East Carolina is the tallest team in the country. They'll likely get quite a few blocked in this game.

East Carolina shot 28.4% from 3 last year and Navy shot 31.7% from 3 point range a year ago. The 3 point line has been moved back this year and thus far it has resulted in games that are quite a bit lower scoring. 

Both teams turn the ball over a bunch, so there should be a lot of wasted possessions. 

Navy used up 21.7 seconds of the shot clock on average in their first game against George Mason. That game was 52-52 at the end of regulation. They'll work hard to grind this game to a halt as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Totals System Play* Divisional games under the total in the NBA has been a good angle in the long run. That is especially true early in the season. 

I like taking divisional unders that are contrarian plays. Divisional unders where less than half the bets are on the under and less than half the money is on the under have done extremely well in the long run. How good has this angle been overall? For the whole season overall- the under is 309-235 (56.8% unders). In the first 30 games of the season, this system is at 60.5%.

Jeremy Lamb is out for the Pacers here, and he has been a big scorer (17 ppg) so far this year. The Pistons are without Reggie Jackson and Derrick Rose (20.8 ppg this year). Blake Griffin is also still out.

There aren't enough scorers here for this game to be lined this high. Both of these teams play slower than average and I like this system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maine Black Bears coach says they want to continue to use a "deliberate" pace. Maine was 342nd in the nation in length of possession on offense last year. Maine was also 335th in offensive efficiency. In 31 games against Division I opponents, Maine saw only 10 of their games get past this posted total. Only 8 of their 31 games went over this total in regulation.

Merrimack College transitions over to Division I this year. Merrimack is coached by Joe Gallo who was an assistant at Robert Morris a few years ago, and his team plays zone almost all the time. Their 2-3 zone will often slow the game down and force opponents to hit shots from the outside. Merrimack faces a Maine team that has shot 29.6% and 31.0% from 3 point range the last two years. 

Maine's defense should improve a bit under Richard Barron this year. The Black Bears were solid on the defensive glass last year.

Look for a slow pace in this one and I like it to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Duquesne is in the middle of a couple major transitions. Leading scorer and rebounder Eric Williams transferred to Oregon in the offseason. Frankie Hughes was the team's fourth leading scorer, and he is out with an injury. Duquesne will be relying on some youngsters in the backcourt. 

The Dukes weren't bad on defense last year, but they gave up far too many second chance points. Princeton consistently ranks near the bottom of the nation in offensive rebounds. 

Princeton lost Myles Stephens in the offseason, and there are a lot of questions about who their go to scoring options will be. The Tigers prefer to use clock on offense and they don't get to the line very much.

Princeton excels at defensive rebounding, and Duquesne got a lot of offense from second chance opportunities last year.

PPG Paints Arena (hockey arena) is where this one will be played. Duquesne doesn't really have a home gym while there campus arena is being worked on. PPG Paints arena has seen 6 of the last 8 games played here go under the total. Of those six games that have gone under- all but one of them stayed under the number by 12 points or more. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Finals Game 6 CASH* The Golden State Warriors stayed alive by winning Game 5 in Toronto. That was a game with all kinds of drama. The Raptors made a big run and appeared to be on the brink of winning it, but then the Warriors made a run to finish the game and won by two. 

Kevin Durant's injury was painful to watch, and it was a shame to see his season end in that fashion. Durant's absence hurts the Warriors a lot on offense. They are clearly still a very good offense with Curry and Thompson, but Durant can be unguardable. Toronto can now try to take their chances on leaving Green and Iguodala open from long range.

Toronto's supporting cast has been inconsistent on offense at times throughout the offseason. Leonard should have another good game here, but we will see what the Raptors do from long range.

These two teams are both very underrated on the defensive end. Golden State's defense was excellent in the closing minutes in Game 5. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism, and they are a tough matchup.

The pace has gotten slower in each of the last three games. As the game means more, things usually slow down. The tempo started at about 100 possessions per game, and the last two games have been 94.5 and 94 possessions. I wouldn't see any reason to expect a faster paced game here. It's a potential close out game and these have been very strongly toward the under in the past decade. 

Look for a hard fought game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Bucks/Raptors Game 6 CASH* The Raptors have stunned just about everyone by winning three straight in this series. Toronto has really picked up their intensity on the defensive end. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism and they have made it very difficult on the Bucks to get into an offensive rhythm the last few games.

Milwaukee ranked number one in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They have great shot blockers and good perimeter defenders as well. The Raptors have knocked down a lot of long range jumpers in the last couple games.

The pace of these games has gotten slower by the contest. The tempo in game 4 was 96 possessions and in game 5 it was 95 possessions. As the games get more important, we often see the pace slow down. 

This is a potential close out game, and these have been great under plays in the postseason in the last decade in the NBA.

I'll say the pace sits at 95 possessions or so again here. If both teams averaged around 1.10 points per possession (slightly above average in the NBA postseason), that would put the projected total at 209 points. 

This is a very important game for both teams and I would expect a lot of intensity on defense.

Take the under.  

*4 Star Play Under* I had the under in game 6 between these two and lost, but with the way the game played out I have to take the under again here in a win or go home situation for both teams.

In game 6 the tempo was just 92.5 possessions. That was the slowest game of the series thus far. The tempo tends to slow down as the games become more important. I would expect a slow tempo again here. 

The teams shot extremely well in game 6. Portland averaged a whopping 1.280 points per possession. During the season they averaged 1.136 points per possession. The Nuggets put up 1.174 points per possession in game 6, compared to their season average of 1.121. 

These teams allowed 1.080 (Denver) and 1.095 (Portland) points per possession on average in the regular season. 

If we take the tempo from last game at 92.5 and project that again here, which I think is a solid guess, and then give each team their season average in points per possession we would get a projected total of 209 here. If we use the points per possession that they allowed during the season overall we would get a projected total of 202. Both are clearly below this posted total.

There were 52 (out of 62) made free throws in game six, and in an average NBA game there are only about 45 free throws even attempted, and 35 made free throws is about average. If we get average free throws here that knocks off 17 points from last game. 

There were also 27 made 3's last game and the average for these two teams would be around 22.

Both teams averaged 30.8% offensive rebounds during the season, but they got back 44.0% and 33.3% of their misses in game 6. That should level out a bit in game 7.

There are plenty of reasons to like this one. Game 7's are definitely lower scoring on average and the offensive efficiency numbers were extremely high last game. This is the value play given the situation. If they shoot lights out again and it goes over the total so be it, but this is the type of play that will win more times than it will lose.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets blew away the Portland Blazers on Tuesday night. I think we'll see a different game on Thursday night in game six. 

Portland has their backs against the wall and they should respond with a much stronger effort here. Still, the Blazers aren't the same team without Nurkic on the inside. Kanter is banged up as well and he isn't the offensive force he could be when healthy. 

The pace of this series has been very slow. The average pace through the first five games is 94.43 possessions. The last two games have seen very high shooting percentages overall. In game 5, there were a whopping 61 free throw attempts. Neither of these teams get to the line all that often on average. 

The tempo generally slows down in these huge games, but even if we project a pace of 94.5 possessions both teams averaging 1.13 points per possession would still keep this game under the total. That is a very solid shooting night, and the defenses generally get better in these closeout games. 

I like the extra value on the under in this big of a game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I took the under in Game 6 between these two and lost. I'm taking the under again in Game 7. There are quite a few reasons for this play. 

First of all, game 6 and game 7's in the NBA playoffs have been very good to under bettors. The under is 95-67 in Game 6 or Game 7 in the NBA playoffs since 2005. That's a good starting point.

Game 6 finished at 223 points, 12 points above this total. There were a lot of reasons that game 6 was high scoring that you wouldn't expect to be replicated here. 

-The Spurs averaged an insane 1.333 points per possession in Game 6. They averaged 1.122 points per possession during the season.

-The Nuggets averaged 1.144 points per possession in Game 6. They averaged 1.121 points per possession in the regular season. 

-The Nuggets got 39% of their misses back in Game 6. They led the league in offensive rebounding percentage, but their percentage in the season was 30%. 

-The Spurs got 29.7% of their misses back in Game 6. They averaged only 24.6% offensive rebounding percentage in the season.

-The teams turned the ball over on only 7.8% and 8.9% of their possessions in Game 6.

Finally, the pace of the game was just 90 possessions. That was easily the slowest paced game in the series thus far. The bigger the stakes the more likely the game is to slow down. If this game plays to 92 possessions (2 quicker than last game), both teams could shoot their season average and this game would finish 5 points under the total.

With game six being high scoring because of amazing shooting numbers, we get extra value on this game. If they shoot lights out again so be it. This is the right play to make as far as value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Clippers stunned everyone by winning at Golden State again in Game 5. We head back to LA for Game 6, and I see value on the under here.

There were 250 points scored in Game 5. A closer look at the shooting percentages and the tempo in that game makes me like the under here. Why? Game 5 was played at the slowest pace of the series. A tempo of 97.5 possessions. Each of the last three games has finished with a slower pace than the previous contest.

How did they score so many points last game? Extremely high shooting percentages and more offensive rebounds than normal. The Clippers averaged a whopping 1.316 points per possession. The Warriors averaged a really impressive 1.247 points per possession. 

The Warriors defense is better than they showed last game, and Steve Kerr was really unhappy with their defensive effort. I expect better defense from them in this contest.

If we get the same tempo as last game, and I think that's a good guess, both teams could average 1.18 points per possession and the total points would be at 230 points.

These teams can shoot the ball well, but this is an extremely high total for game 6 in the NBA playoffs.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The San Antonio Spurs go home down 3-2 to the Denver Nuggets. The Spurs were up 2-1 in this series, but have had a couple poor performances in a row. You would expect a really well-coached team like the Spurs to play better in a game like this one. 

These two teams rank 23rd and 25th at getting to the free throw line. The Spurs rank 2nd at defending without fouling. The Nuggets rank 12th. Unless the refs turn this thing into a ref show, you wouldn't expect a lot of free throws here.

The average pace in the last 3 games of this series has been 93.5 possessions. At 93.5 possessions, both teams averaging an impressive 1.10 points per possession would lead to a projected total at 205.7 points. 

As the games get more important, the defense generally turns it up a notch in the NBA playoffs. The tempo tends to slow down a bit more as well. 

Here's a system to consider:

First round of the NBA playoffs with a total of 191 to 209

-Home team with a win percentage of 60% or lower

-Spread between home team -4.5 and +7.5

-The percentage of tickets on the under is 45% or lower

In this situation the under is a whopping 47-10. This game fits the system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors lead the Clippers 3-1 and they are a big favorite here to finish out this series. 

Golden State dropped game two to the Clippers. Golden State played the ultra fast paced game that the Clippers wanted in that game. The Warriors have turned the dial on the tempo the last couple games. 

Golden State averaged 1.149 points per possession in the regular season. In this series, they are at 1.186. 

The first two games were played to a pace of 108.5 possessions. The last two games in this series have played to 99.75 possessions. 

If we assume there will be around 100 possessions in this game- the Warriors could average 1.9 points per possession (119 points) and that leaves the Clippers needing to score more than 113 for this to go over.

Two of the best under refs in the business are calling this game in Goble and Davis.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Super System CRUSHER* The Orlando Magic are down 2-1 to the Toronto Raptors. All three games in this series have stayed under the total. In fact, they have all stayed under this total, which has been adjusted down a bit. 

These two teams have played 7 games this year. The average final total in those games has been 202 points. These teams are consistently playing at a slow tempo against each other. 

Toronto ranks 22nd in the NBA in free throw attempts per game. Orlando ranks dead last in free throw attempts per game. Orlando is 5th best at not fouling on defense. Toronto is 11th best at not fouling on defense.

Both of these teams are below average at getting second chance opportunities. 

The Raptors have some serious defensive talent on their roster now. Kawhi Leonard is as good as they come on defense. Danny Green is a very good defender. Marc Gasol is a good defender in the low post. Serge Ibaka is a very good defender as well. 

The Magic are scrappy on defense and they will make Toronto work on the offensive end.

There's a big system that this game fits.

-A 1st round NBA playoff game

-The total of 191 to 209

-Home team win percentage of 60% or lower

-Road team win percentage of 50% to 73%

-Home team favored by 4.5 points or is an underdog

In this situation the under is a stunning 62-19 in the last 81 (76.5%).

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers controlled the tempo and had a very real chance to win the game in Boston in Game 2. Indiana led by 2 points with 52 seconds left. The Pacers losing by 8 and failing to cover 7.5 is one of the worst NBA beats I've ever seen.

Indiana knows they need this game badly. They aren't likely to change their game plan here. Their game plan was working in game two. Keep the Celtics out of transition and use the clock on offense. 

The shooting numbers weren't all that bad last game, but the game only got to 190 points. The game was played to only 94 possessions. I think Indiana gets their preferred tempo again here.

Boston ranked 29th in the NBA at getting to the free throw line during the regular season. Indiana ranked 25th. These two don't normally get to the line much. 

The under is 20-7 in the Pacers last 27 games against a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Orlando Magic were beaten badly in game two. I like to play unders in game 3 when the home team was beaten soundly in game two. 

This is a chance for the home team to attempt to rally the troops and put forth a better effort, and more times than not it comes from improved play on the defensive end. Orlando wants to slow this game down, and I expect them to work to slow the tempo a lot on their home floor. 

These teams have met six times this year. Four of the six games have stayed under this total. The average final total has been 204.33 points. This is a playoff game that means much more than the regular season meetings did, and playoff games have historically been quite a bit lower scoring. 

Orlando ranks last in the league at getting to the free throw line. Toronto ranks 21st. Unless there is a ref show, you wouldn't expect a bunch of free throws when these two teams meet.

Here's a totals playoff system I have followed in recent seasons with success.

-Total of 195.5 or higher 

-Home team is between -2.5 and +5.5 in the game 

-The home team is coming off a loss of 6 points or more

-The home team has won 63% or less of their games in the regular season

-The under is getting 45% or less of the bets

The under is a whopping 37-8 (82.2% wins) in the last 45 contests that fit this criteria. This game fits the system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers made a massive comeback to win over Golden State in stunning fashion in Game 2 at Oracle Arena. 

Golden State is clearly the best team in the NBA, and the Warriors aren't likely to shut it down in the 3rd quarter as they did last game. Steve Kerr made it clear he wasn't happy with the Warriors defense in the second half of Game 2. 

While Golden State is obviously a great offensive team, most don't realize how good this Warriors defense can be when they are highly motivated. The under is 24-8-1 in the Warriors last 33 games following a loss. I don't think that's an accident. The under is also 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 125 points or more in their last game.

There were a whopping 65 made free throws in Game 2. An average made free throws number for these two teams would be in the upper 30's. Last game was an outlier. Could there be a bunch of made FT's here again? Yes, but we shouldn't expect that number to be repeated.

Both teams shot the ball very well from the floor last game. This game has a little extra on the line now with the series at 1-1.

The line has been adjusted upward by the oddsmakers. This is an extremely high playoff total. An average of 59 points per quarter puts this one just under the total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors are down 1-0 after Orlando stunned them in game one. In game one, Orlando was able to slow the pace down quite a bit. The game played to 98.5 possessions. The shooting was a bit below average, but it wasn't terrible. Orlando averaged 1.051 points per possession and Toronto averaged 1.031 points per possession. 

Late in the regular season, Orlando was very good defensively. Toronto was also strong defensively to finish out the year. Orlando ranked 7th in defensive efficiency in the last 15 games. Toronto ranked 4th in defensive efficiency. 

Orlando ranked 25th in pace of play and Toronto ranked 15th. Neither team pushes the pace to any kind of extreme level.

Two of the three best under referees in the NBA are on this game in Marc Davis and John Goble. 

Neither of these teams have been particularly strong at offensive rebounding, and that helps with avoiding second chance points.

There hasn't been an adjustment down in this total like there was in most of the other contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* There has been a lot of money come in on the under in this game. The total opened at 219 and has been bet down six points. I think this move has been overdone. 

Utah is a much better offensive team than they were a year ago. Utah got significantly better on offense late in the season this year. The Jazz were third in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last 15 games of the season. Who was first? The Houston Rockets. 

Houston's coaching staff has been quoted as saying they have to get the tempo going even quicker than normal here to prevent Utah's big men from setting up on the defensive end. Look for the Rockets to move the ball around quickly and try to get up some shots early in the shot clock here. 

Utah can sometimes shoot a poor percentage from the floor and still score quite a few points. The Jazz have been pretty good on the offensive boards, and Houston ranks second worst in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Houston has scored 111 points or more in 12 of their last 13 games. Utah has scored 109 points or more in 16 straight games. The big move on the under has created some value on the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle Crusher* The Spurs and Nuggets have met four times this year. All four games went under the total. The stakes are clearly higher now with this being a playoff contest. The tempo generally slows down in the playoffs and the defenses work a little harder. 

Both San Antonio and Denver slowed their pace down late in the regular season, and I don't see any reason to expect them to speed things up now that the games mean even more. Denver ranked second slowest in the NBA in tempo in the last 15 games of the year. The Spurs were fourth slowest.

Denver hasn't been all that efficient on offense overall this year. It has been their second chance points that can really do damage. The Spurs rank sixth in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage. The Spurs are 24th in offensive rebounding percentage, so I wouldn't expect too many second chance opportunities for them.

The under is 9-0 in the Spurs last 9 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on two days of rest. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 6-0 in Denver's last 6 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A combined 31-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders are first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense, and it isn't even very close. You have to love what the Red Raiders are doing defensively under Chris Beard. Beard is an elite head coach and he has this team working so hard on defense. As he has said before, defense is a way of life in his program. If you don't defend well, you won't play for Chris Beard.

Michigan State's defense is a lot better than most people realize. The Spartans have played the second toughest schedule in the country this year, and they haven't allowed an opponent to average more than 1.12 points per game all year. They have been so consistently strong defensively. Michigan State has a couple very good defenders in Matt McQuaid and Aaron Henry to throw at Jarrett Culver.

Texas Tech and Michigan State have both struggled with turnovers on offense this year, and I do think there will be quite a few wasted possessions in this game. Neither team likes to push the pace very much, and both teams are very physical. As long as we don't get a ref show here, I think the defenses will have the upper hand all the way.

Michigan State loves to run the pick and roll with Winston, but Texas Tech is elite at defending that play. Texas Tech is reliant on Culver getting into the lane, but Michigan State should have a good defensive plan ready for him.

Shooting numbers have historically been lower in these huge stadiums built for football rather than basketball. That's another plus in this one.

A very hard fought game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Portland Blazers are without C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic right now due to injury. The Blazers have still been good, but their upside is certainly limited without those guys. 

Portland has slowed their pace down a bit without two of their best players. Portland ranked 16th in the NBA in tempo up until the McCollum injury. In their last ten games, they rank 24th in the NBA in tempo. 

Denver ranks 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. The Nuggets have slowed the pace down drastically in recent weeks.

Denver has been better defensively of late as well. Denver ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games.  Portland has been solid defensively also of late. Portland ranks 10th in defensive efficiency in their last ten games.

I like to look for unders late in the season in the NBA in games that mean a lot to both teams. Denver sits in second in the Western Conference standings. Portland sits 4th in the standings and they are only two games behind Denver. 

The under is 6-0 in the Nuggets last 6 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Blazers last 5 when they are off a win of 10 points or more. A 16-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Denver Nuggets offense has been a mess of late. In their last 8 games, Denver ranks last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. It's hard to imagine, but yes they are actually behind the Bulls and the Knicks during their last eight games. 

Denver's defense has been solid during this time. The Nuggets rank 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games.

San Antonio is playing at the 28th fastest pace out of 30 teams in the league in their last eight games. Denver ranks 29th in tempo during that time. Both of these teams have been slowing the game down.

Late in the season, unders between good teams have been very good in recent seasons. The angle is stronger when they are teams from the same conference. This one definitely fits.

The under is 7-0 in the Spurs last 7 vs. a Western Conference foe. The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Nuggets last 5 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. A 16-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are back to playing better defense of late. For the season, Golden State ranks only 14th in defensive efficiency. Golden State hasn't played like a team that is terribly motivated during much of the regular season. The Warriors rank sixth in defensive efficiency in their last 10 games. 

Denver ranks as the second slowest paced team in the NBA in the last 10 games. The Nuggets have decided to try to slow things down quite a bit. Golden State is no longer one of the fastest teams in the league. In fact, Golden State ranks 21st in the NBA in pace in their last ten games. 

Denver ranks 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 10 games. The Nuggets rank 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last 10 games.

Both teams should be motivated here as the two teams fight for playoff seeding in the Western Conference. 

Late in the season, taking two good teams playing against each other to go under the total has been a very strong angle in the past few seasons.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs and Texas Longhorns meet in the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden. This is a strange game in that it is a Big 12 showdown in New York City. It's the third time these two teams have played each other this year. 

The first two games between these two teams finished at 125 and 126 points total. Texas ranks 35th in the country in defensive efficiency. TCU ranks 33rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Very early in the small postseason tournaments (NIT, CBI, CIT) the over has been a huge moneymaker in the past. Later in these tournaments, the under has had a lot of value. These games start meaning more now. You're this far into the tournament, so why wouldn't you try to go win the thing? The defensive intensity tends to pick up on average, and the tempo slows down a bit.

Madison Square Garden is arguably the best under arena you'll find for a college basketball game. The under is 60-39-2 in the last 101 postseason games at MSG with a total of 127.5 or higher. 

In the NIT semifinals or finals, the under is 26-8 in the last 34 contests with a total of 129 or higher.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats rank 8th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Houston ranks 12th in defensive efficiency. Houston ranks 1st in effective field goal percentage defense. While both teams are pretty good on offense, the strength of both teams is their defense. 

Kentucky has slowed their tempo down drastically in recent weeks. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 10 ten games to a pace of 64 possessions or slower. Kentucky ranks 274th in tempo overall in the country. 

Houston ranks 247th in overall pace in the country. Houston has been held to a low number on offense in several big games this year. In fact, they scored 61 points or less in two of their last four games. 

This should be a very good game played between two physical teams. I'll keep this one to a 3 star play because if we get referees who want to blow the whistle a lot, this one could go over the total.

Overall though, I see a tight low scoring game in this showdown to see who gets to the Elite 8.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Conference playoff standings are really tight. The team in first place is only 8 games ahead of the team in eighth place. Just 1.5 games separate 5th from 8th place. Denver is in second place right now in the standings, but they could still fall to 3rd or 4th or even regain the top spot. Oklahoma City sits in 7th, but they are just one game out of 5th. 

This game means a lot to both teams. The more these games mean late in the season, the more I lean toward the under to begin with. There are more reasons to like the under in this one too.

Denver has seen 11 of their last 13 games stay under this number. The Nuggets have slowed their pace drastically. The Nuggets are playing at the second slowest tempo in the NBA in the last 10 games. 

Oklahoma City has a history of playing top opponents to lower scoring games. The under is 37-16-1 in the Thunder's last 54 games against a team with a 60% or higher win percentage.

Paul George is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury for this game. He'll likely try to play, but he is less than 100 percent. 

The under is 13-3 in the Nuggets last 16 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders rank first in the nation in defensive efficiency. Michigan ranks second in the nation in defensive efficiency. There is going to be some tremendous defense played in this game. If there is a lot of scoring, it will be because the teams are hitting tough shots. 

This game is played at the Honda Center in Anaheim. This has been a tremendous under venue in college basketball. In the last 55 games with a total of 124.5 or higher at Honda Center, the under is a whopping 40-15. 

Michigan's offense ranks 290th in the country in tempo, so they move very slowly. Texas Tech ranks at 253rd out of 353, so they move pretty slowly as well. This game should be played in the halfcourt, and both defenses are excellent. 

These are two extremely well-coached teams. Both coaching staffs should have a great idea of what the other team wants to do here. That should help the defenses.

With the venue being an extra bonus, I think the defenses look great here. It's a low number for a good reason.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs lost to the Florida State Seminoles last year in the Sweet 16. Gonzaga is very excited for the chance to get them back this season. Florida State's length really bothered Gonzaga's offense last year.

Florida State just put up 90 points in a blowout win over Murray State in the Round of 32. Keep in mind though, this is a Florida State offense that really struggled at times this year. They rank 171st in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. Florida State is shooting only 33.7% from 3 point range on the season. 

Gonzaga's offense is great. The Bulldogs did feast on a weak schedule though. They faced the 104th toughest slate of defenses this year. Gonzaga did struggle more against the better defenses they faced this year (Tennessee, St. Mary's). Florida State ranks 10th in the nation in defensive efficiency, and they should give Gonzaga a tougher time than most teams have.

Florida State would be well served to play this game more in the halfcourt and force Gonzaga to stay out of the paint as much as possible.

This game is played at the Honda Center in Anaheim. This has been a tremendous under venue in college basketball. In the last 55 games with a total of 124.5 or higher at Honda Center, the under is a whopping 40-15. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It has been a strong angle in the past decade to take the under in a game between two good teams late in the year. Both of these have plenty to play for. Oklahoma City's recent slump has dropped them to 8th in the playoff standings, but they are just one game behind fifth place. 

Indiana sits in the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They certainly want to fight hard to stay there so they have home court advantage in the first round.

I like to look at recent performance this time of the year. In their last 8 games, Indiana ranks 26th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Oklahoma City ranks 27th during this time. What about on defense? Indiana ranks 4th best in the NBA. Oklahoma City ranks 6th best in the NBA during this period when it comes to defensive efficiency.

Both of these teams can go through offensive droughts, but both play tough defense. This game projects as a defensive battle.

The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'll start by saying this is an extremely high total, and normally I wouldn't play an over at this number. There are a couple key reasons I'll take the over in this game though.

This is a second round game in the CIT, which is a small postseason tournament. These smaller postseason tournaments in the early rounds have gone over the total at a very high rate. 

Green Bay's last game against East Tennessee State finished at 102-94. Both teams did shoot very well in that one. FIU's last game finished 87-81. That was against a Texas State team that tries to stall as much as possible.

FIU ranks first in the country in tempo. Green Bay ranks 10th overall in tempo and 8th in their offensive length of possession. These two teams absolutely fly. 

The quotes from Linc Darner, coach of Green Bay, suggest he expects a game with both teams pressing all game and running. With two teams pressing and both teams pretty good at drawing fouls, there should be quite a few trips to the line. Additionally, both of these defenses are bad at grabbing defensive rebounds so I would expect plenty of second chance opportunities. 

It's a very high number, but I think this one gets to 180 or more. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars rank first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Ohio State ranks 21st in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Houston ranks 252nd in the nation in tempo. Ohio State is 277th in the nation in tempo. Both Kelvin Sampson and Chris Holtmann generally prefer to play at a slow pace. 

Ohio State doesn't have much offensive firepower, and I would assume their game plan is to make sure this is a halfcourt game.

Both teams are far better at defense than offense, and this is a game that decides who gets to the Sweet 16. There is clearly plenty of incentive to work extremely hard on defense. 

In a regular setting, I think 130 is a fair number for the total here. In a game like this that means much more, I think this total should be in the 120's.

The under is 6-0-1 in Houston's last 7 neutral site games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Antonio Spurs defense has been much better in recent weeks. The Spurs rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 12 games. San Antonio ranks 23rd in tempo in that period as well, so they are slowing things down. 

Brad Stevens was very upset with Boston's defensive effort in their last game, and you have to think they work harder on that end in this game. The Celtics have key players banged up that could slow the offense too. Jayson Tatum and Al Horford will either play at less than 100% or miss this game.

Sunday has been the best day for unders in the NBA in the long run, and it isn't even close. This is a high total with two teams who have plenty to play for here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Indiana Pacers rank second worst in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last ten games. Indiana also ranks 23rd in tempo. 

The Nuggets rank 28th in tempo, and Denver's defense is clearly better than it was a year ago. The under is 13-3 in Denver's last 16 road games.

A game between two good teams at this time of the season is a good under system in the past 15 years. This game means plenty to both teams.

Sunday has been the single best day to bet unders in the NBA by a wide margin. This is a Sunday afternoon contest.

The under is 7-0 in the Nuggets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in the Pacers last 5 following a loss by 10 points or more. A 25-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Greensboro Spartans use a full court press to keep the tempo going. Lipscomb ranks in the 94th percentile in the country in press offense. The Bison will be happy to play fast, and they should be able to get some quick scores against the press. UNCG will also create some turnovers and scoring opportunities from that press. 

Lipscomb ranks 14th quickest in average possession time on the season. UNCG ranks 77th out of 353 in tempo on offense. These teams love to play fast to start with. These postseason tournament games early in the tournament have been great over plays in the last few seasons. This one should be up and down all the way. Both teams have had fast paced high scoring games in the first round. They should repeat that here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The VCU Rams offense moves at the 40th quickest pace of any team in the country in terms of average possession length. I would expect VCU to move even faster than normal in a game like this. They know they can't get into a halfcourt game against a team with a 7'6 shot blocker like Tacko Fall in the middle. They'll look for every chance to get out in transition. 

UCF hasn't faced a press like VCU's much at all this year, and at times they have struggled with turnovers. VCU should get some easy chances off turnovers.

VCU's defense has been very good this year. Still, I think UCF's ability to draw fouls is key in this one. UCF is second in the nation in FTA/FGA. VCU fouls a lot based on their pressure defense. Look for BJ Taylor to be at the line a lot here. VCU is also good at getting to the free throw line. 

Both teams are good at getting second chance opportunities. With both teams getting second chance points and both teams getting to the line, this is a low total. With the spread where it is, overtime is a possibility and a foul fest late is possible as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State offense isn't the same without Dean Wade. Wade is a big man who can score in the post or step out and shoot or facilitate the offense. Kansas State becomes too guard-oriented without him. 

The Wildcats can still play elite defense without Wade. Kansas State ranks 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency (one spot ahead of Virginia). Bruce Weber's team is going to be easily the best defense UC Irvine has faced this year. In fact, Irvine hasn't gone against a team in the top 40 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

Kansas State's offense can be a mess without Wade, and UC Irvine has been very good defensively for several years under coach Russell Turner. UC Irvine ranks first in the nation in 2 point field goal percentage defense. 

Both teams play at an extremely slow tempo. This game tips off at 11 am local time, so this is an early start for these teams and that on the whole is a positive for the under.

This total is very low, but UC Irvine has played 8 games under this number this year. Kansas State has played 12 games under this number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels and the Villanova Wildcats meet on Thursday night in Connecticut. 

Both of these teams play very slowly. In terms of average possession length, Villanova ranks 339th out of 353 teams. St. Mary's is even slower at 350th out of 353 teams. This game should be played in the halfcourt throughout.

St. Mary's has some impressive numbers at home this year on offense, but their road and neutral offensive efficiencies are much lower. The Gaels averaged 1.202 points per possession at home this year. They averaged 1.085 points per possession on the road. They averaged 1.077 points per possession on neutral courts. They are a long way from home in this one, and neutral courts like this one tend to lean toward the under.

Villanova ranks in the top 5 in most three point shots attempted. The Wildcats go against a St. Mary's defense who ranks 44th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. St. Mary's has ranked in the top 44 each of the last three years when it comes to defending beyond the arc.

Look for a low scoring contest thanks in large part to the tempo this game will be played at. Both teams also rank in the top 80 in the nation in defending without fouling, so barring a ref show there shouldn't be too many free throws in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Phoenix rank 8th in the country in quickest possession length on offense. Green Bay always runs and they'll continue to do so here. 

East Tennessee State is right in the middle of the pack at 181st. The Bucs have shown the willingness to run against the likes of Georgia Southern, VMI, and Western Carolina this year. Green Bay will be the fastest paced team they have played all year.

This is a small postseason tournament, where overs have done exceptionally well in the first couple rounds in the past decade. Why? The pace usually picks up because there is less on the line.

East Tennessee State should dominate on the glass against a Green Bay team that gives up second chance points by the bunches.

This is several points too low in what should be a really high tempo contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both Grand Canyon and West Virginia like to push the pace. There are a lot of teams in their leagues who prefer to slow the game down, but now they get to go up against another team who likes to run.

Grand Canyon was an elite defense last year. They aren't this season. Grand Canyon was 3rd in the country in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 149th this season.

West Virginia picked up the pace quite a bit in their last few games. They have played 6 of their last 7 games to a pace of 71 possessions or quicker. Seven of their last eight games have finished at 153 points or higher.

This is a small postseason tournament, where overs have done exceptionally well in the first couple rounds in the past decade. Why? The pace usually picks up because there is less on the line.

Look for an uptempo game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers go to Brown to take on the Brown Bears from the Ivy League. This is a CBI contest.

Both of these teams have pretty good defensive numbers on the year, but these defenses aren't as good as they look. Why? Both have played a bunch of weak offenses. UAB has faced the 276th strongest offenses in the country according to KenPom (compared to 125th best defenses). Brown has faced the 249th toughest slate of offenses (185th defenses). Essentially, both teams played in leagues where they didn't have to go up against many good offenses.

This is a small postseason tournament, where overs have done exceptionally well in the first couple rounds in the past decade. Why? The pace usually picks up because there is less on the line.

Brown ranks 40th in overall tempo in the country (out of 353 teams), so they really push the pace. This is a very low total in a small postseason game with one team pushing the pace that much.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* This is a low total for an early smaller postseason tournament contest. These games are generally much faster paced than the regular season contests. 

This is an NIT game, and they have changed the rules for this year's NIT as an experiment. The 3 point line is a bit farther back (FIBA distance), but the shot clock resets to only 20 on an offensive rebound. Additionally, on the 2nd foul in the last two minutes teams will shoot two shots no matter how many fouls they have committed in that period. There will be no 1 and 1 attempts. Fouls will be reset every 10 minutes and after 5 fouls teams will shoot two shots.

These rule changes on the whole favor more scoring and a quicker pace. 

Creighton has been really efficient at home this year. Creighton saw 15 of their 17 games at home go over this posted total. 

Loyola Chicago ranked 31st in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are only 176th in that metric this season. They rank 293rd in 3 point defense, and Creighton shoots the 13th highest percentage of 3 pointers of any team in the country. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd love to run. Marshall ranks 7th in the nation in tempo. The Thundering Herd have gotten more efficient on offense as the season has moved along. 

IUPUI ranks 120th in tempo, so they play relatively quickly as well. The Jaguars rank 320th in the nation in 3 point percentage defense. Marshall ranks in the top 40 in the country in most 3 pointers attempted. The Thundering Herd should get some easy looks from long range.

IUPUI's biggest strength on offense is their ability to grab offensive rebounds. Marshall's single biggest weakness is defensive rebounding. They rank 338th out of 353 teams in the country in defensive rebounding percentage.

Overs have done really well in the early rounds of the smaller postseason tournaments. They have done especially well in games with two teams with a winning percentage under 60% for the season. This game fits that system.

Jon Elmore needs 20 points to become Marshall's all time scoring leader, and that should lead Marshall to push the pace even more here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Portland Blazers are without C.J. McCollum here. McCollum has a knee injury. Without McCollum, the Blazers lose a major offensive weapon. Portland doesn't have the great second scoring option in the backcourt now. On other hand, McCollum's defensive stats have never been very good, and they might be a bit better on defense with him on the bench.

Indiana is without their best scorer in Oladipo as well. The Pacers have scored 108 points or less in six straight games. They have scored 105 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The Pacers slow the game down, and they'll try to avoid a high scoring contest here.

Portland's tempo is slightly below league average, and without McCollum it should be tough for them to be as efficient on offense.

This is a game between two good teams late in the year. That's a solid under angle in the NBA in the past decade.

The under is 23-8 in the Pacers last 31 games vs a team with a 60% or higher winning percentage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UT Arlington Mavericks and the Georgia State Panthers meet in the Sun Belt Tournament final to decide who will represent the conference in the NCAA Tournament.

Georgia State plays a unique zone defense that can be a very tricky matchup. UT Arlington isn't efficient against a man offense (26th percentile in the country), but they are even worse against a zone defense (15th percentile). Georgia State isn't very good in transition defense, but Arlington ranks in the 2nd percentile in transition offense.

Georgia State has a solid offense, but I've been impressed with UT Arlington's ability to switch up their defenses. They have a solid man defense and a solid zone defense. The Mavericks do struggle with turnovers on the offensive end, and I see quite a few turnovers there.

Lakefront Arena is the venue here and the under has done well here. The under is 32-19 in the 51 postseason games played here.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies and Eastern Washington Eagles play for a berth in the NCAA Tournament tonight. Both of their games in the regular season played to a pretty slow pace, but the shooting was good. In this game, I would expect the pace to slow down some. After all, this game means far more than those regular season matchups did.

These are two of the top defenses in the Big Sky. This is a game played at a large arena in CenturyLink at Boise. This is a positive for the under as well.

Look for a tightly played game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UT Arlington Mavericks like to slow the game down. They are the second ranked defense in the Sun Belt. 

Georgia Southern plays extremely fast, but they aren't always efficient on offense. Georgia Southern is the third ranked defense in the Sun Belt. 

The two regular season meetings between these two teams finished at 139 and 141 points. This game is the semifinal game in the Sun Belt Tournament, and there is a lot more on the line than there was in either of the first two meetings. 

This game is also played at Lakefront Arena, which is noted for being a difficult shooting backdrop.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Cal State Fullerton won in overtime yesterday against UC Davis. UCSB won by 3 over Cal State Northridge. These two teams both played to a slower pace than their season average. These games mean more now. If they lose they go home. That typically leads to a slower pace.

Cal State Fullerton is 280th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are averaging only 0.98 points per possession this year. UCSB is solid on offense, but they rank 314th in the nation in tempo. 

Cal State Fullerton ranked 2nd in the Big West in defensive efficiency. UCSB ranked 4th. 

Honda Center is the venue here, and this is a massive hockey arena. These teams aren't accustomed to the spacious backdrop and that has caused massive shooting problems from Big West teams here in the past. The under is a whopping 33-8 in the last 41 Big West Tournament games here with a total of 131 or higher.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Bonaventure Bonnies have been excellent on defense of late. How good? The Bonnies have allowed 58 points or less in six of their last eight games. They haven't allowed more than 64 points in any of those eight games.

George Mason's offense has been struggling late in the season. George Mason scored just 37 points on VCU recently, and they struggled to a 61-57 win over a bad George Washington defense yesterday.

The two meetings between these teams this year were played at a slow tempo. The first game finished at 121 points. The second game went to 135 points because St. Bonaventure made 11/19 three pointers and averaged 1.25 points per possession. They average only 1.01 points per possession and this game is on a neutral floor.

It is win or go home time for both teams. The under generally does well on neutral court games like this one. St. Bonaventure has played six straight games under this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Hawaii and Long Beach State met twice during the regular season. One game finished with a total of 131 points. The second game finished at 147 points with some extremely good 3 point shooting numbers.

Hawaii doesn't like to run as much as Long Beach State, and I think Hawaii has the guards to slow this game down and turn it into more of a halfcourt style game.

This game is played at the Honda Center. You won't find a better under venue, especially for a small conference like this. The Big West schools are small, and they aren't accustomed to playing in a big venue like this one. This is a hockey arena and the shooting backdrop is very tricky for basketball. The under is a whopping 30-7 in the last 37 games here with a total of 131 or higher.

With a total set this high and two teams fighting hard to play another day in a hockey arena, I have to take the under here.

Take the under.

*4 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers meet on Thursday night. 

Oklahoma City played last night and picked up a win against Brooklyn. Their defense was very good in that game, but the offense wasn't very good outside of Russell Westbrook who had a great game. 

The Oklahoma City offense has struggled in the past ten games. The Thunder rank 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last ten. They have still been solid on defense though up in 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that time.

Indiana ranks 26th in tempo, and they aren't going to want to get out and run with Oklahoma City here.

Two good teams squaring off late in the season is a solid under angle in the long run, and I see several reasons to like this one to stay under this fairly high number.

The under is 42-19 in OKC's last 61 games against a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 21-8 in the Pacers last 29 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 35-16 in Indiana's last 51 home games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both UC Davis and Cal State Fullerton are very inefficient on offense. Both teams are very good on defense. UC Davis ranks 307th in offensive efficiency in the country. Fullerton ranks 288th. UC Davis is 156th in defensive efficiency. Fullerton ranks 115th on defense.

These two teams played twice in the regular season. The final scores were 120 and 125 points total. They were hard fought defensive battles.

This game is played at the Honda Center. You won't find a better under venue, especially for a small conference like this. The Big West schools are small, and they aren't accustomed to playing in a big venue like this one. This is a hockey arena and the shooting backdrop is very tricky for basketball. The under is a whopping 30-7 in the last 37 games here with a total of 131 or higher.

With this game meaning more than their two regular season games, the tempo is likely to slow down a bit as well.

Take the under.

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Big West Tournament gets underway on Thursday. UCSB and Cal State Northridge will tip things off at noon pacific.

This game is played at the Honda Center. You won't find a better under venue, especially for a small conference like this. The Big West schools are small, and they aren't accustomed to playing in a big venue like this one. This is a hockey arena and the shooting backdrop is very tricky for basketball. The under is a whopping 30-7 in the last 37 games here with a total of 131 or higher.

Cal State Northridge has slowed down their pace here late in the season. UCSB is one of the slowest paced teams in the league. While both are solid offensively, this is a really high number in this arena for an early start time.

Both of these teams rank in the top five in the Big West at defending without fouling. This number is several points too high.

Take the under.

*This line has moved a bit since I first played this game. I would play this game as a 5 star Top play down to 145 and as a 4 star play at anything below that. Thank you* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Xavier Musketeers have been mixing in zone defense of late, and it has really helped them. Xavier in the bottom 20% of the country in man defense, but their zone defense ranks in top 1/3 of all zone defenses in the country. 

Creighton is excellent against man defense. Creighton ranks 97th percentile according to Synergy Sports against man defense. The Blue Jays have struggled against zone though. They rank in the 36th percentile against zone defenses. 

Creighton tends to play a little bit fast. The Blue Jays rank 123rd in the nation in tempo. Xavier ranks 310th in tempo, and they'll work to slow this game down. The two regular season meetings were both very low scoring games, and Xavier was able to dictate the pace. I don't see any reason that they can't do the same here. 

Xavier's defense improved drastically late in the year. During a six game losing stretch in the middle of the season, they allowed 74 points or more in 5 of those 6 games. In their last 7 games, Xavier went 6-1. During that time, they didn't allow more than 73 points in a game.  They allowed 61 points or less in three of those games. 

Madison Square Garden has been a tremendous under court for many years. It's a difficult shooting backdrop. Both regular season meetings stayed under this total by more than 10 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CBB Total DOMINATION* The Providence Friars are different than all the other teams in the Big East. Providence switches up their defense often. Ed Cooley does a good job keeping opposing offenses uncomfortable with these changes. Providence wants to slow the game down and make it sloppy.

Butler ranks 7th in the Big East in tempo. Providence ranks 8th in tempo in this league. Neither one of these teams want to push the pace much. 

These two teams have played each other twice in the last two weeks. I tend to think that helps the defenses since they have a lot of recent video to look at the opponents offensive sets. 

This game will be played at Madison Square Garden. It's been the most consistent under venue in college basketball. The under is 67-45-2 in postseason NCAA BB games at MSG. The under improves to 57-33 (62.2%) when the total is 127.5 or higher in a postseason game here.

The fact that these two just played a high scoring game against each other gives us some line value. This game means more to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams meet at 9:30 am local time. This is an extremely early start time in a gym that neither team has played in all year. It's a bigger arena than these teams are accustomed to as well.

Early start times are a help for the under in general, because it changes routines. A bigger venue that is new to everyone is another big plus.

The two games during the regular season between these two went to 144 points and 130 points. Neither of them were played very fast.

This game means more than those games did because it is a win or go home tournament.

Take the under.

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The LA Clippers host the Portland Blazers on Tuesday night. The Clippers are coming off an offensive outburst last night over the Boston Celtics. Portland has had several days off to prepare for this game. 

In their last ten games, the Clippers rank fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Blazers rank 14th in that time in defensive efficiency. 

Portland likely tries to slow the game down a bit here. The Blazers rank only 19th in the NBA in pace in their last ten games.

There is a strong totals system regarding conference games in play here:

-A total of 227 or higher

-Game 5 of the season or later

-Public bet percentage on the under of 48% or less

-Total has either stayed flat from the open or gone up.

The under is a whopping 82-36 (69.5%) since 2005 in this system. This game fits the system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northeastern and College of Charleston both prefer to play at a slow tempo. Northeastern ranks 250th in the country in tempo. Charleston ranks 290th in the country in tempo.

The two regular season games between these two finished regulation with 129 and 138 points. This game means much more since it is a one loss and you are done tournament format here. 

It is also at a neutral site where the shooting backdrop is more difficult. 

These two played at this site in the tournament last year and they finished regulation at 130 points. 

I would expect a pretty slow pace here, and I think this total is a few points too high considering how much is riding on this game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints have played 19 games against MAAC opponents this year. Two of those 19 games have gone over this total. Siena ranks as the slowest paced team in the country using up 21.5 seconds per possession on offense. The Saints know they need to slow the game down to have their best chance of winning against a good offense in Iona.

Both regular season meeting between these two stayed well under the total.

The last time these two met the posted total was 135. Why would the total jump 7.5 points when this game is an even more important matchup? I thought this game should be lined around 136 or so- I see a big edge here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves and Northern Iowa Panthers meet today and the winner goes to the NCAA Tournament. Enterprise Center has been a massive under arena, and the MVC is a defensive-minded league. I don't see any reason to expect anything other than a defensive slugfest in the final game in the MVC Tournament here.

Both of these teams prefer to slow the game down. Both teams can also go through long scoring droughts. With the poor shooting backdrop in St. Louis (this is a hockey arena), and the very high stakes on the line here, I look for a tight low scoring game.

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies will be without Alterique Gilbert here. He sustained an injury in the Huskies last game. He has been the focal point of the offense of late. He is averaging 12.6 points per game. Jalen Adams has been out for several weeks now. He is listed as doubtful on Sunday again. UConn's offense has drastically slowed their pace of late. The Huskies have played five games in a row under their season average in pace. Their offensive efficiency has been below average in five of their last six as well.

East Carolina ranks 334th in the country in offensive efficiency. This is a pretty high total for a game where the Huskies might be without their two best offensive players and the other team is a very weak offensive team.

The first meeting between these two teams got to only 128 points total. I think East Carolina will work hard on defense here, and I don't think the Pirates will be very efficient against a UConn defense that plays hard from start to finish. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons play a very rare noon eastern start time contest on Sunday. These games have leaned pretty strongly to the under in the past to begin with, and in this one I like the angle even more with the clocks moving forward. This is essentially an 11 am start time on the body clock. 

Detroit has easily played at the slowest pace in the NBA in their last ten games. The Bulls rank in the bottom ten in the league in tempo as well. I don't think they'll be pushing the pace in this early game. These two just played each other as well, and that should help the under.

I would expect a bit of a sloppy game here with some scoring droughts. The last game between these two stayed under the total despite some good shooting numbers. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Colorado Bears have been the best defense in the Big Sky Conference this year. Northern Colorado is allowing only 0.973 points per possession in the league. No one else is allowing less than 1 point per possession. 

Northern Colorado is also playing at the slowest pace of any team in the Big Sky. They are averaging 19.0 seconds per possession. Most in this league play much quicker. The Bears are winning games with defense and ball control. Northern Colorado has kept 14 of their 19 games in the league under this total.

Northern Arizona is a slightly slower than average paced team. They aren't good either. In the first meeting between these two, N Colorado won 63-48 and it was played to a very slow pace of 60 possessions.

Northern Colorado needs a win here to stay tied atop the Big Sky standings. This is the final game of the regular season. I would expect the intensity to be high from them. Northern Arizona is likely to have a hard time scoring. Northern Colorado should dictate the pace too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The under is a whopping 33-14 in the last 47 neutral site games at the Times Union Center in Albany where this one will be played. 

Quinnipiac is a good 3 point shooting team, but shooting a bunch of 3's in a tough shooting venue could lower their efficiency a bit here.

Monmouth relies largely on transition offense and getting to the free throw line, but Quinnipiac is first in the league in transition defense and defending without fouling.

There has been a line move up this morning and I'll take the extra points and go with the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Southern Eagles host the Georgia State Panthers in what is being billed as one of the biggest games ever for these two teams. These teams are rivals and games between these two are always spirited. This time there is even more on the line though.

Georgia State and Georgia Southern are tied at the top of the Sun Belt (Texas State is as well). The winner of this game will at least share the Sun Belt regular season title.

Georgia State is playing a zone defense, and that is key here. Georgia Southern's offense has been excellent against man defense this year, but they aren't very good against zone defenses. According to Synergy Sports, GA Southern is in the top 11% of offenses in the nation against man defenses. They rank in only the 47th percentile in zone offense. GA State will play a zone here.

Georgia State relies heavily on the 3 point shot on offense. GA Southern is allowing opponents to shoot only 31.2% from three in the Sun Belt. 

These are two quality Sun Belt teams, and both of these teams have quality defenses. They do play fast, but in a game like this that means so much I expect it slow down a bit and the defensive intensity will go up even more.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* For much of the Big 12 portion of their schedule, Oklahoma State was slowing the tempo to a crawl. With the end of the season near, and the games meaning far less now, the Cowboys have sped up drastically in their last three games. 
Oklahoma State has gotten a little faster in each of their last three games, and all three of those games have been more than 3 possessions faster than their average for the rest of the conference schedule. Interestingly, they haven't really played fast paced teams during that time either. The Cowboys have decided to pick the pace back up.
West Virginia always prefers to play at a fast pace. The Mountaineers are great on the offensive glass, and that's an area where I think they have an advantage against an Oklahoma State frontcourt that isn't very good on the defensive boards.
West Virginia commits a bunch of fouls and gets to the line a lot as well. Earlier this year, these two teams met when Oklahoma State was slowing the pace down more and the final was 85-77 largely because of the amount of trips to the line. 
West Virginia's last four games have gone past this total.
This is a late season game between two teams with very little to play for. It's the last regular season game and I would expect an up and down contest.
Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Texas State and UT Arlington rank as the #1 and #2 defense in the Sun Belt. There are a lot of bad defenses in the Sun Belt. These two teams are very solid on defense. They also rank as the slowest and second slowest team in terms of tempo. 

Texas State is tied for first place in the Sun Belt. They need a win here to share the Sun Belt title. 

UT Arlington and Texas State are rivals, so there is always plenty of intensity for this matchup.

The first meeting between these two was at 120 at the end of regulation, and the shooting numbers were actually slightly above average. The tempo was very slow the whole way.

I think this line is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers need this game badly. They are right on the bubble right now. Clemson has had a hard time picking up those marquee wins. Syracuse isn't a great team, but they are a quality team and a win over them would help Clemson a lot.

Clemson's defense ranks 10th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Tigers scrap and claw on defense, and it should be hard for Syracuse to get many open looks here. The Orange rely on getting offensive boards and getting to the line, but Clemson is good at clearing defensive boards and they are solid at defending without fouling.

The biggest key here for me is Clemson's offense. Clemson shoots 33% from 3 point range. They aren't a good jump shooting team. They need to get into the paint. Syracuse plays that great matchup zone. Syracuse is second in the nation in blocked shots. They have some great rim protectors. Clemson ranks in the 57th percentile in offensive efficiency against man defenses. They rank only in the 26th percentile in offensive efficiency against zone defenses. This is the best zone defense they face.

A game that means a lot and offenses faced with a very tough defensive matchup.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd are an offensive juggernaut. Marshall wasn't clicking on offense as expected for most of the season, but that has changed recently. The Thundering Herd have scored 1.142 points per possession or higher in four straight contests after struggling to hit the 1 point per possession mark during a lot of the conference season.They have scored 85 points or more in those four contests. 

Florida Atlantic has been a unique team this year in that they have played to the pace of their opponents. The Owls have played some very slow paced games against the teams who slow the game down. They have played extremely fast paced games against FIU and Marshall though. 

The first meeting against Marshall was 96-84 Marshall win. It isn't likely to get that high again here, but this total is set too low.

This is the final game of the regular season and neither team has much of anything to play for other than pride. That has been good for over bettors at the end of the regular season in the past. Expect a very quick tempo here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* In the MVC Tournament, a total of 130.5 or higher is 40-16 in the last 56 games. Enterprise Center where these games are played for Arch Madness is a hockey arena and it is known for a bad shooting backdrop. The shooting numbers in these games are often very low.

Drake and Illinois State played twice during the regular season. Both regular season meetings stayed well under this total. 

Drake's DJ Wilkins was one of their best offensive players, and he will miss this game with a broken ankle. 

Drake is bothered by the zone defense that Illinois State mixes in. Illinois State hasn't been efficient on offense all season long.

At this venue with two teams who have matched up well defensively against each other, this number is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iona Gaels have been known as a very high scoring game the last couple seasons. They are still good offensively this year, but they aren't nearly as good as they were the last two years. 

Iona has actually played 5 of their last 9 games below this total. They are up against a team who is terrible offensively and is stalling at every chance in this one as well.

St. Peter's is a whopping 17-2 under this total in their last 19 games. They have to slow this game down to have a chance, and I expect them to do this.

The first meeting between these teams finished at 108 points.

At this venue- the under is a whopping 71-37 when the total is set at 135.5 or higher.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Monmouth and Niagara meet here in a battle of two bad MAAC teams. The Times Union Center hosts this one. This has been one of the best under venues in all of college basketball of late. How good? The under is 89-47 in the last 136 games played here with a total of 127.5 or higher. Overall, the under is 32-11 in the last 43 games played here when it is a neutral site.

Bad teams in conference tournaments have been good under bets on these neutral courts. The offenses are inefficient and the defenses tend to clamp down a bit more when the game is more important. This is a win or go home game for both teams.

Niagara isn't good defensively, but they foul the least of any team in the conference. Monmouth has been very reliant on getting to the line to score. Niagara has slowed their tempo down late in the year, and I don't think they'll turn this into a track meet.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Evansville has been very inefficient on offense this year. They have scored 65 points or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. Those have been at normal venues, and this game is at a neutral site with a very tough backdrop. Evansville shoots a bunch of 3's, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they miss a bunch of them here.

Illinois State has been running some zone defense of late, and Evansville ranks in the bottom 13% in the country in zone offense.

Illinois State has scored 67 points or fewer in nine straight games. The RedBirds aren't a good shooting team.

The Missouri Valley Conference has been playing at Enterprise Center for many years as part of Arch Madness. This was formerly known as Scottrade Center. This is a huge arena that is normally a hockey arena. It is noted for some poor shooting backdrops. 

The under has been terrific in neutral site games in the Missouri Valley Conference. How good? The under is a whopping 66-29 (69.5%) in the last 95 contests in the MVC when the total is 119.5 or higher. Most of these were at Enterprise Center. 

Neither of these teams get many second chance points. The venue is important here based on the historical numbers.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Valparaiso Crusaders have been terrible on offense this year. Valparaiso has seen 10 of their last 12 games go under this posted total. Valparaiso has averaged 0.92 points per possession or worse in 12 of their 18 league games this season. 

The Missouri Valley Conference has been playing at Enterprise Center for many years as part of Arch Madness. This was formerly known as Scottrade Center. This is a huge arena that is normally a hockey arena. It is noted for some poor shooting backdrops. 

The under has been terrific in neutral site games in the Missouri Valley Conference. How good? The under is a whopping 66-29 (69.5%) in the last 95 contests in the MVC when the total is 119.5 or higher. Most of these were at Enterprise Center. 

Valparaiso is expected to be without Ryan Fazekas, their best scorer in this game. 

Indiana State is very sloppy on offense as well. The Sycamores don't pass the ball well, and too much isolation basketball can be easier to defend.

Neither team gets many second chance opportunities. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs and San Diego State Aztecs meet on Wednesday night. These are two teams who are playing very well of late. Both of these teams are better defensively than they are on the offensive end.

Fresno State ranks 6th in the MWC in offensive efficiency. They are third in defensive efficiency. San Diego State is 7th in offensive efficiency. They are 2nd in defensive efficiency. 

San Diego State's defense has been tremendous of late. The Aztecs have held  7 of their last 10 opponents to less than 0.99 points per possession. They are giving up only 0.916 points per possession at home this season. Their length and athleticism should bother Fresno State here.

Six of San Diego State's last seven games have stayed under this total. 

Both of these teams have been struggling with turnovers on the offensive end. In a game with two solid defensive and a relatively slow pace, wasted possessions can really help the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'll start this off by saying I don't generally like playing extremely high overs, but this one shows enough value that I have to take it. My numbers show this game in the 183-183.5 range. 

FIU went to Marshall earlier this year and lost 105-97. There were a whopping 88 possessions in that game. 

When it comes to average possession length on offense, FIU is the fastest paced team in the nation. Marshall ranks 4th. That is out of 353 teams. 

This game is the second to last game for these teams and the end of the season often brings wide open and fast paced games from mediocre teams. I see no reason to expect anything other than an extremely quick tempo here.

Marshall's offense has been much better at home this year. They have also been hitting their stride of late. Marshall has averaged 1.20 points per possession or higher in three straight contests. The Thundering Herd have allowed 1.10 points per possession or higher in 5 of their last 6 games.

Both teams rank in the bottom 15 in the country in defensive rebounding so extra chances should be had here by both offenses. Both teams also foul a lot.

A very high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators have been a low scoring team all season. Game after game there has been steam on the over with this team, and yet more than 70% of the games have gone under the total.

Florida is 18-4 to the under on this number in their last 22 games. If you exclude overtime, they would be 19-3 to the under on this number.

Florida has clearly slowed down their pace even more of late. The Gators have played five straight games to at least a full possession slower than their season average. Florida has played 8 of their last 9 games below their season pace average.

LSU has slowed their tempo down of late as well. Of LSU's six slowest paced games this year, four of them have come in since mid-February.

This is a big game for both teams. LSU needs a win to keep pace with Tennessee in the SEC standings. Florida is on the bubble and needs big wins. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Sunday afternoon. Louisville is on an ugly stretch where they have lost 5 of their last 6. Notre Dame has been disappointing this year as well. 

The issue for both teams of late has been their offenses. Notre Dame has scored 61 points or fewer in 7 of their last 10 games. Louisville has scored 59 points or less in four straight games. 

Notre Dame is very good at slowing the pace down. They have kept ten straight games to a tempo of 65.7 possessions or fewer. Louisville ranks in the middle of the pack in tempo.

The Fighting Irish have played zone 1/3 of the time so far this year, and I have to think they'll try it in at least part of this game. Louisville has been miserable against zone defenses this season.

Notre Dame isn't what they normally are on offense. In fact, the Fighting Irish rank 320th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They shoot a bunch of 3's, and Louisville is only allowing opponents to shoot 29.8% from 3 in ACC action.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Charlotte Hornets host the Portland Blazers. The Blazers are in the middle of a long road trip, and they are coming off a hard fought loss to the Toronto Raptors on Friday night. 

This is a very early start time on a Sunday afternoon. Sunday has been the single best under day in the NBA in the long-term, and it isn't even close. These early Sunday games tilt slightly more toward the under than the rest of the contests.

Charlotte has had several high scoring games in a row, but that was against Brooklyn twice, Golden State, and Houston. Those teams have a lot of very high scoring contests. 

Portland ranks 23rd in tempo in their last 8 games. Charlotte ranks 21st in the NBA in tempo during that time. For two teams in the bottom ten of the NBA in tempo, this is a very high total.

The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The under is 4-0 in Charlotte's last 4 vs. a team with a 60% or higher winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Blazers last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. A 14-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Montana ranks first in the league in offensive efficiency. This is a conference where there isn't much defense played. Montana has sped up of late without Akoh healthy in the middle. Montana's forwards can really stretch the floor, and the guards have quickness to get in the lane.

Southern Utah gets to the free throw line more than any other team in the Big Sky Conference. Southern Utah should be able to get to the line plenty here. Montana will also get to the line plenty, since Southern Utah fouls a bunch on the defensive end. 

These teams played a very high scoring contest earlier this year. Montana has seen 11 of their 16 games go over this total in the conference. Southern Utah has seen 10 of 17 go over this total (3 of them fell only half a point below).

Look for a fast paced game where free throws put it over the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Utah State Aggies defense has been tremendous this season. Craig Smith has really done an amazing job with this team. Utah State is 20th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Aggies rank in the top 4% of teams in the country in transition defense. That's important against a Nevada team that likes to try to get easy baskets in transition as often as they can.

Nevada was a great team on offense last year. They are very good, but not quite as efficient on offense this year. Nevada wasn't good on defense last year, but they are excellent on defense this season. Nevada went from 108th last year in defensive efficiency to 28th in defensive efficiency this year.

This is a huge game for both teams. Late in the season huge games where it means a lot to both teams lean fairly heavily toward the under in the long run.

Utah State has clearly slowed their pace down. They are playing nearly 7 possessions slower in conference play than they did in non-conference action.

A tight game here with two solid defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bethune-Cookman has been pushing the pace all season long. They rank 31st in the country in tempo. South Carolina State ranks 222nd in tempo. 

There are a couple things that make me like this play. First, South Carolina State has played to the pace of their opponent all year long. This is a team that has played very slowly against the slow paced MEAC teams and very fast against the fastest MEAC teams.

The first contest between these two finished 98-73. The tempo in that game was a blazing fast 76 possessions. Both teams are great on the offensive glass and both get to the free throw line a lot.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs are tied at the top of the Missouri Valley Conference. This is clearly a big game for them. In the big games late in the year, it tends to help the under because of improved defense.

Missouri State has been an under machine. The Bears have slowed their tempo drastically, and they have controlled the pace against everyone they have played in their last 10 games. Missouri State is using up almost 21 seconds of the shot clock on average.

Neither team gives up many offensive rebounds, and that is another clear plus for the under.

Take the under here.

*4 Star Play Over* The Gardner Webb Runnin' Bulldogs have clearly sped up their tempo of late. They are only using up 16.9 seconds of the shot clock on average. Gardner Webb has also become more efficient on offense. In 6 of their last 8 games, they have averaged 1.10 points per possession or better.

Longwood's defense has worsened of late. The Lancers are giving up points in bunches. Six of their last seven games have gone above this total.

Gardner has seen 6 of their last 8 games go above this total.

This is the last game for both teams and this game means little. I think we see a quick pace here. 

The first meeting between these two was at 152 at the end of regulation.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Illinois Salukis have been much more efficient offensively of late. The Salukis are consistently getting to the 1.05 points per possession mark or better, and that is impressive in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. 

Illinois State has been a disappointment this year. They have played faster in their last couple games. Southern Illinois isn't slowing things down as much now either.

In games between two teams with a 60% or lower win percentage in their last two games of the year, the over has hit at 55% in the last 10 years. With a total this low, the system is even stronger.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Portland Blazers and Toronto Raptors meet on Friday night in Toronto. Both of these teams have been playing good defense of late. Both teams rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last six games. Portland ranks only 22nd in tempo during that time as well.

This is a game between two quality teams late in the season. Simply playing the under from game 60 to game 80 of the regular season in the NBA when both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher has seen the under cash 57.5% of the time since 2005. This one fits this system. 

I think both of these teams are clearly good on offense, but many don't realize how good they are on defense. This total is a few points high, and in the late season in a matchup between two quality teams I'll go with the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Hofstra Pride have played six games in a row that went over this posted total. Hofstra is scoring at will on almost every team in the CAA. In fact, only once in their last 12 games has Hofstra scored less than 1.10 points per possession. Hofstra has scored 1.231 points per possession or more in 8 of those games. Hofstra goes up against a Drexel defense tonight that is 340th in the nation in effective field goal percentage.

In the first game between these two, Hofstra had 47 points at halftime. That game was played to a pace of 71 possessions. 

Hofstra's offense has remained great all year, but their defense which was improved, has fallen apart of late. Teams are figuring out this zone. Hofstra has allowed 1.16 points per possession or more in four of their last five games. 

Drexel is much better offensively than they were a year ago.

The last three times these two have met the final totals have been 177, 164, and 164 points. 

I expect the offenses to have the upper hand once again. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles have improved drastically on defense this year. Marquette was 292nd in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They rank 19th in that same statistic this season. 

Villanova had the best offense in the country last year. The Wildcats are still good on offense, but nothing like they were a year ago. They were 1st in effective FG percentage offense last year. They are 55th this year. Villanova is playing six possessions per game slower than a year ago as well, so there has been massive tempo change. 

The first game between these two teams played to a pace of only 61 possessions. The final was 66-65. The shooting numbers were about average there.

This is a big game for Villanova after multiple losses. The Wildcats should be working hard on defense here. Marquette's Markus Howard is their superstar, and he is playing with a groin injury right now. 

Late in the regular season, unders have value in the big games between quality teams- because the games mean a lot to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics were called out by Brad Stevens after their loss in Toronto on Tuesday night. Stevens is very disappointed in the team's defensive effort. While this Celtics team has been disappointing on defense of late, they are still 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season as a whole. Boston is fully capable of playing much better defense than they have of late.

Portland is a good offensive team, but they aren't nearly as efficient on the road. The Blazers are averaging 1.157 points  per possession at home and only 1.094 points per possession on the road. 

Boston ranks 17th in the NBA in tempo. Portland ranks 18th in the NBA in tempo. Both teams have played slightly slower than that in their last few games. 

With the tempo this game should be expected to play out to, if either team struggles from the floor it will be hard to get to this total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have been an under machine, and I have to back the under again here. Missouri State is in a tie for first place in the league, and it is thanks to them slowing the game down and winning with defense. Missouri State ranks first in the MVC in defensive efficiency.

Illinois State has slowed down pace wise of late as well, and I see the RedBirds having trouble being efficient against this Missouri State defense. 

Look for Missouri State to control the tempo and keep this under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers have what is arguably the best defense in the country. Virginia is holding opponents to just 0.852 points per possession on the season. 

Georgia Tech has been absolutely hapless on offense this year. How bad have they been? They have been below 0.80 points per possession in seven games this year! They have been held to 0.765 points per possession or worse in six contests. Now, they take on the best defense they have played all year. 

Virginia is playing at the same pace they have in past years. They are the slowest paced team in the nation. The Cavs have averaged only 59 possessions per game in their last five contests. They have gotten even slower as the year has moved along. 

Georgia Tech staying under 50 points here is a very real possibility. Virginia is good at taking the air out of the ball when they have a big lead as well.

Take the under.