Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star College Hoops Play of Day* The Princeton Tigers have decided to slow their tempo down in a big way. Princeton has dealt with a bunch of injuries this year, and their depth isn't good at all. The team has slowed down out of necessity. It is working very well.

Princeton ranks first in the Ivy League in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. The Tigers have played 8 games in the Ivy League and only one of them has gone over this total. 

Yale ranks third in defensive efficiency in the Ivy League. The Bulldogs have been playing pretty fast lately, but I think it is because of who they have been playing against. In 4 of their last 5 games, they have played the teams in the league that want to push the tempo. They face a very slow paced opponent here.

This should be a tight game and this is a solid rivalry where defense usually improves. I had this game at 132 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Golden Grizzlies aren't the same team they have been in recent years. In the past, they were a team who could never get a stop and they always were great on offense.

Oakland is 230th in the nation in offensive efficiency this year. Their jump shooting has been very poor. Oakland is 60th in the country in defensive efficiency, so they are much improved on this end of the floor. 

Valparaiso ranks first in the league in defensive efficiency, and Oakland torched their defense in the first meeting this year. I have a feeling Valpo comes ready to play on defense in this one. The Crusaders aren't likely to run with Oakland here. They want a halfcourt game. 

This one has been bet up a few points to where I see value here. Both defenses have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Titans have been pushing pace much more in recent weeks. This is a team that was so bad in their halfcourt defense that the coach had to change to a fullcourt press to try to get steals and easy scores. 

Detroit has seen 6 of their last 7 games go to 163 points or higher. The Titans now play against a team who also likes to run in UIC. The Flames haven't been great on offense on the year, but they do shoot the three ball well. Detroit is terrible at guarding shooters beyond the arc. 

On the other side, UIC has seen 4 of their last 5 games go above this posted total, so they are a high scoring team as well. 

This one got bet down as most high totals do, but it is has given too much value on the over for me to pass it up. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The UConn Huskies and Memphis Tigers are similar teams in that they are better on the defensive end than the offensive end of the floor. UConn racked up some amazing numbers on offense against South Florida twice that skews their league average, but overall they are a mediocre or worse shooting team.

Memphis is averaging 0.977 points per possession on offense. The Tigers shoot 29.6% from 3 point range, and they have been taking too many long range jumpers of late. Memphis is only giving up 0.946 points per possession in the conference though, and they are definitely one of the best defenses in the league.

UConn likes to play at a slow tempo, and Memphis typically plays to the pace of their opponent. The first game between these two finished at 131 points with a slightly quicker tempo than expected. I think things slow down a bit here and I had this at 128 points.

Take the under.  

*3 Star NCAA Hidden GEM Total* I respect the money a lot more in small conference games where the public won't be betting. In this game, 75% of the tickets are on the over, but a whopping 99% of the money is on the over. 

Nebraska Omaha plays at the 9th quickest tempo of any team in the country (out of 351 teams). Oral Roberts ranks 94th in the nation in tempo, so they are willing to run as well. This one should be a track meet. The first game between these two was 103-86. While this one probably won't be that high, I do like it to go over the total.

These two defenses are awful. Omaha is allowing a whopping 1.117 points per possession in the conference. Oral Roberts is allowing a ridiculous 1.149 points per possession. Both offenses should be efficient here.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs host the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a Big 12 showdown. These two teams are both right on the fringe of the NCAA Tournament. This game means a lot to both teams. The more important the game is, the more likely it is to be low scoring. 

TCU has to slow down the tempo in this game, and I think they'll do that from the start. The Horned Frogs have slowed things down recently, and they don't want to get into a track meet with Oklahoma State.

The first game between these two was 89-76, but both teams shot over 90% from the free throw line and there was quite a foul fest in the second half. Additionally, both teams shot well over their conference averages from the floor.

I expect these numbers to normalize and I had this total at 154 points. 

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves are terrible on offense. The only way they can consistently score is by getting to the free throw line. Northern Iowa commits by far the fewest fouls of any team in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Northern Iowa played poorly in the middle of the season, but they are playing very well now thanks to some tremendous defense. This is a team that is routinely allowing 50 to 55 points per game, and now they are playing the worst offense in the MVC.

Northern Iowa is great at grabbing the lead and then slowing the tempo of the game down. The Panthers should lead from the start and win with suffocating defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana State Sycamores have one of the worst defenses in the Missouri Valley Conference. Loyola Chicago also has one of the worst defenses in the conference. In fact, these two teams rank second and third worst in the league in defensive efficiency.

Loyola is second in the league in offensive efficiency. Indiana State isn't very efficient on offense, but the Sycamores are second in the league in pace, and they'll get plenty of shots up here.

My numbers had this game at 143 points. 

While only 41% of the bets are on the over in this game, a whopping 95% of the money is on the over.

Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The San Antonio Spurs are playing with revenge from a surprising defeat at the hands of the Orlando Magic earlier this year. Though I do lean with the Spurs ATS here, I like the under better. 

San Antonio is easily first in the NBA in the past eight games in defensive efficiency. This team is playing some terrific defense right now. 

Orlando's offense ranks among the worst in the NBA in efficiency. The Magic have been much more efficient on the defensive end at home as well. 

Neither team likes to run, and the tempo here should stay much slower than an average NBA game. 

Over the years, when the Spurs are playing with revenge, the under has been a great play. The Spurs typically win and get their revenge by focusing on the defensive end of the floor. 

An important reason why I like this play is regression to the mean for the Magic in 3 point shooting numbers. Orlando shot 57% from long range last game and now they face a very good defense.

The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in the Spurs last 6 after scoring 100 or more last game. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a straight up win. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 19-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The South Florida Bulls have the worst defense in the American Athletic Conference. Cincinnati is much better on the offensive end than they have been in recent years. The Bearcats averaged only 1.06 points per possession two years ago. They averaged only 1.10 points per possession last year. This year they are averaging 1.132 points per possession. 

Cincinnati has shown a willingness to run up the score on the bottom of the AAC this year. They have played their two fastest paced games against Tulane and USF, the two worst teams in the conference. The Bearcats rolled to a 94-53 win over USF earlier this year.

USF just slowed down East Carolina to get their first win in the AAC, but slowing down this potent Cincinnati offense will be a much tougher task. 

Cincinnati will dominate the offensive glass here and get plenty of second chance points. USF is playing at the second fastest pace of anyone in the AAC. 

I had this number at 136. 

Take the over big. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates have played only one home game this year that got above 140 points. East Carolina is a miserable team on offense, and they like to slow the game down. 

East Carolina has played poorly on defense on the road, but their defensive efficiency numbers at home are very good. The Pirates gave up 81 points at Temple as the Owls shot one of their best percentages of the season, but I don't think that will happen again here. East Carolina is coming off an embarrassing loss at USF, and the Pirates should be focused here.

The tempo of this game should be around 65 or 66 possessions, which makes this total too high. In fact, I had this number at 130. 

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats nearly lost their home game against DePaul earlier this year. Villanova built up a double digit lead in that game before winning by only 3. I think that means they will be more focused for this road game. 

Villanova is playing at a slower tempo on the road, and their shooting numbers have been lower away from home. The Wildcats have played two of their conference road games at 59 and 58 possessions. They will slow the pace down here.

DePaul isn't going to force the tempo against a team as good as Villanova. The Blue Demons are going to struggle to score here. Villanova being more focused should show up on the defensive end. This is a DePaul team that is dead last in offensive efficiency in the league. 

I had this game at 135 points. Villanova should grab the lead and slow things down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morgan State Bears rank 342nd in the nation (out of 351 teams) in offensive efficiency. The Howard Bison are even worse at 347th in the nation in offensive efficiency.

When these two get together on ESPNU on Monday night, I expect a really sloppy game. This isn't a game I'd recommend anyone to watch, but I do believe there is good value on the under. 

Howard and Morgan State both play very slowly. The pace in this game should be slow all the way. This is a rare television game for these two and often these smaller schools that get on television see lower shooting percentages than normal in these games because of nerves.

I had this one at 126. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Tigers are playing some tremendous defense this year. Memphis is allowing only 0.926 points per possession inside the American Athletic Conference. 

Temple is averaging only 0.994 points per possession in conference action. Memphis is averaging only 0.978 points per possession. These two offenses aren't efficient. 

Temple is shooting 32% from 3 point range in the conference and Memphis is shooting only 30%. Both defenses are holding opponents to 31.5% or lower from long range. It would be a surprise if these teams knock down a lot of long range jumpers.

Memphis has slowed their pace down dramatically in recent weeks. The Tigers have played 5 of their last 7 games significantly slower than their season average.

The first meeting between these two saw the total finish at 143 points even though both teams shot a much higher percentage from the floor than their season average. Things should level out here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal State Northridge Matadors beat UCSB 78-57 at UCSB earlier this year. In that game, UCSB had their leading scorer in the lineup. Gabe Vincent is now out for the year with an injury, and UCSB's terrible offense has gotten even worse.

It has become a regular deal that UCSB struggles to get past 50 or 55 points. As long as Northridge has a little bit of class and lets up if they are winning big here, I don't see this one getting to this high total. 

I had 141 in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Weber State Wildcats are averaging 1.195 points per possession inside the league. That's some amazing efficiency on the offensive end. For the year as a whole, Portland State is allowing 1.10 points per possession, and I think Weber State should get a lot of good outside looks with Jeremy Senglin and company.

Portland State plays at the fastest tempo of any team in the Big Sky Conference. The Vikings will push the pace here. Portland State should be able to get transition buckets in this one. 

Both teams are good at taking care of the ball and I think the offensive efficiency here will be high.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks love to push the pace of the game. LSU is the same way. The first meeting between these two finished 99-86. They both shot the ball well,but it really shouldn't be a big surprise because of how bad the defenses are. 

LSU may be the worst major conference defense in the country. They are allowing 1.198 points per possession inside the SEC. Arkansas is one of the better offenses in the SEC, and they rank near the bottom of the conference in defensive efficiency as well. 

Arkansas presses and does a lot of fouling, and a lot of trips to the charity stripe should be expected.

It's a high number, but I had 168 here. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs are unbeaten and number one in the country. They get a major test as they go to St. Mary's today. Gonzaga is certainly the better team, but St. Mary's is a really well-coached team, and they have a great home court advantage.

St. Mary's plays at the slowest pace of any team in college basketball. It's very rare to see a St. Mary's game with a total this high. The Gaels have to stall this game out and make it a low scoring game. They know they can't run with Gonzaga.

The first game finished 79-56 with a very slow tempo of 59. Gonzaga lit it up in the first game, and I can't imagine they will shoot it that well in this game. St. Mary's is only allowing 0.924 points per possession in the conference, and Gonzaga scored 1.34 points per possession in that first meeting. 

The Gonzaga defense ranks fourth in the nation in defensive efficiency.

My number here was 129. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Florida Bulls have the worst defense in the American Athletic Conference and it isn't even close. They are also playing at the fastest pace in the conference since interim coach Murray Bartow took over.

East Carolina and USF are both bad on offense, so there is certainly some risk to taking the over here, but this line is just too low for me to pass it up. Only one of USF's last ten games has stayed under this posted total, and most of them haven't even been close. 

East Carolina's offense should look a lot better than normal when playing against this terrible defense. I think this number should be in the mid 130's.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* The Florida Atlantic Owls want to play faster with Michael Curry as their coach. He's talked extensively about how he wants his team to get out in transition and play quickly. Here's a great chance for them to do it. 

Rice ranks 24th in overall tempo so far this year. The Owls definitely will want to run, and they have been very efficient on offense. Rice shoots 40% from 3 point range, and they can pile the points up quickly.

In their lone meeting last year, Rice beat Florida Atlantic 90-85. Now, I'm not expecting a score that high in this game, but I do think this total is several points too low.

I see a tempo in the low to mid 70's and a high scoring game.

The over is 6-0 in Rice's last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The over is 24-10 in their last 34 Conference USA games.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Dakota Fighting Hawks are doing a great job forcing the tempo in their games of late. North Dakota hasn't had a game played at a tempo of less than 70 possessions since December 7. That's an impressive feat. North Dakota is averaging 73.5 possessions per game inside the Big Sky. 

Idaho enters having really figured things out on offense of late. Idaho has scored 89, 81, and 88 points in their last three games. The Vandals are shooting the ball much better this year than last, and they are also turning it over less times. 

Idaho generally slows people down on defense, but I expect North Dakota to continue to play fast. Idaho prefers to play quickly on offense. 

The Big Sky is a good over league in general because of the porous defenses. Look for this one to go over the total. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are great at controlling the tempo. Baylor plays at the 13th slowest pace of any team in the country (351 teams). 

TCU plays to the pace of their opponent. Time and time again this year, TCU has ran with fast paced teams and slowed down against slow paced teams. One of the best examples of this is their 62-53 final against Baylor earlier this year. The tempo in that game was only 61 possessions.

I think this is about 4 points too high, and because of the consistency of Baylor's pace that is enough for me to take the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals CRUSHER* The Indiana State Syacamores host the Drake Bulldogs on Saturday. Drake plays at the fastest pace of any team in the Missouri Valley Conference. Indiana State ranks third in the league in tempo.

That is really important to note, because almost everyone in this conference wants to stall. In this case though, we get a rare chance for these two teams to play fast as they want to. The first meeting between these two teams finished 87-70 and with a blazing fast tempo of 79. The shooting was below average in that one and it still got more than 10 points above this total.

These two teams rank last and second to last in the MVC in defensive efficiency. Two bad defenses and a quick tempo should mean a game that sails over.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star College Hoops Total DOMINATION* The Dayton Flyers and Rhode Island Rams are both excellent on defense. Dayton is allowing only 0.9 points per possession inside the A 10, which ranks in the top ten in the country in conference play. Rhode Island is allowing only 0.95 points per possession, so they are excellent on defense as well.

The first meeting between these teams finished at 67-64. There were 23 points scored in the last four minutes because of some fouling, so the game was actually on a pace for an even lower total than that. The defenses played very well, and I expect them to play well again here.

Four of the last five meetings between these two have gone under this total. The one that went over finished at 141.

With the move up on the total, I'm glad to take the under in this one. There is too much value for me to pass.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs have scored 88 points or more in 7 of their last 12 games. Gonzaga is just torching the nets on a nightly basis. They shouldn't have much trouble scoring against Loyola Marymount in this one either. 

Loyola Marymount allowed 93 points in their game at Gonzaga, and they recently allowed 85 to BYU. The Lions have picked up their pace of late. They played an 87 possession game against BYU (that's blazing fast). They also played a very fast 76 possession game last game against San Francisco. Gonzaga will be happy to run with Marymount, and the Bulldogs should be very efficient here. 

Gonzaga is averaging nearly 90 points per game on the road in WCC play. The Zags put up a big number here and Marymount does enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The SMU Mustangs have the 13th slowest tempo of any team in the country. SMU also ranks 24th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Mustangs are an undervalued team by many. 

Temple will give SMU a fight. The Owls have a good coach, and this team plays well on their home floor. I don't see Temple wanting to run very much here either.

A total set this high doesn't make much sense to me. I had this one at 136 points. I'm keeping this one to a 4 star play because I do worry a bit about Temple's defense playing a bit worse of late, but this is still a very solid value.

Look for a slow paced game where it would take very good shooting numbers to surpass this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Elon Phoenix have played to the pace of their opponent all year long. Delaware ranks in the bottom 50 in the country in terms of tempo. The Blue Hens defense has been torched on the road all year, but they have been pretty good at home.

Elon ranks second in the CAA in defensive efficiency. The Phoenix should handle this weak Delaware offense nicely. Delaware is averaging only 0.95 points per possession on the year. 

This numbers was pushed up early by some steam, and I'll go against that steam here. My number for this game was 131 points.

I see this being a sloppy low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies always look to slow down the tempo. They have played a bunch of opponents lately who push the tempo. They had high scoring games against LSU, West Virginia, and Ole Miss. That should be expected against those teams, but it has pushed up this posted total.

I think this number has reached the inflated level. Missouri shot much better than normal in their win over Arkansas last game. The Tigers should come back down to earth against a good Aggies defense.

Missouri toyed with running and gunning in the middle of the season, but their offensive tempo has slowed drastically in their last four games. I don't think they'll push the tempo enough to get this one over.

I had this at 132. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates rank second in the Big East in defensive efficiency. The Pirates are also second worst in the league in offensive efficiency. Providence ranks third worst in the league in offensive efficiency.

The first time these two teams met the score was 65-61. The tempo in that game was only 63 possessions. Both of these teams prefer to slow the game down, and I think the pace here will be slow again. Unless they shoot an abnormally high percentage here, I think this stays under.

In 4 of their last 5 games, Seton Hall has scored 63 points or less in regulation. The Pirates are the favorites here, and I think they keep this game low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past ten games. The Clippers are giving up 119 points per game in their last seven road games.

For the year as a whole, the Clippers are allowing 1.012 points per possession at home. They are allowing a stunning 1.097 points per possession on the road. That's one of the biggest differences in the NBA.

The Knicks are a mess right now. New York is actually slightly worse on defense at home than on the road. They are much more efficient on offense at home though. 

These teams both rank in the middle of the pack in tempo, but I see the offensive efficiencies being very high here.

The over is 6-1 in the Clippers last 7 games. The over is 18-9 in their 27 road games this year.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Baylor Bears take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a huge Big 12 showdown on Wednesday night. Baylor ranks sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bears held Oklahoma State to 57 points in their first meeting.

Oklahoma State was playing as fast as anyone in the country early in the season, but I've noticed a big change in their tempo in recent weeks. The Cowboys have averaged only 65 possessions per game in their last five games. For the season as a whole before this five game stretch, they were playing at a pace of slightly more than 72 possessions per game.

The first game between these two saw a tempo of only 59 possessions. Baylor played their normal slow pace and Oklahoma State let them do it. I don't see any reason to expect a fast paced game here. 

Both teams are pretty good on offense, but it would take some very good shooting numbers to send this over.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Florida Bulls are continuing to push the tempo under interim coach Murray Bartow. I've done well playing the over with South Florida since the coaching change, and I'm not going to stop in this spot. 

South Florida has allowed 79 points or more in 7 of their last 8 games. They have allowed 81 points or more in their last four in a row. 

UConn's offense was awful early in the year, but it has improved quite a bit of late. The Huskies are shooting it much better from long range. USF's 3 point defense is atrocious, and UConn made 12 threes the last time these two met. 

USF will push the pace and play bad defense, and with a number this low, I have to take the over.

Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs host the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Tuesday night. I think this total is inflated by several points. I expected a total released in the 137 area. The first game between these two saw better than average shooting and some late game fouling. That one got to 144 points. This one is nearly at that level. 

Texas Tech has played even slower of late. The Red Raiders have played 4 of their last 5 games to a tempo of 64 or slower. TCU has been a team that plays to the pace of their opponent so far this year, so I expect a fairly slow tempo in this game.

These two teams aren't very good at getting to the line, so it would be a surprise if there were a bunch of free throws here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers prefer to push the tempo, but most teams in the AAC slow the game down. Tulsa also plays slightly faster than the average team in the league. The first meeting between these two teams was 81-71, and the game was played to a pace of 74, which is very quick.

I don't think they'll get to 74, but this pace should be 69 possessions or so, and at that kind of tempo, it takes some pretty bad shooting numbers to stay under 137 points. Both of these teams are very good at getting to the free throw line, and that helps us with the over. The spread here is 7-8 points, and that is the perfect late game fouling range if it does stay around the spread. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals defense has been terrible inside the MAC. In their last seven games, they have allowed a minimum of 77 points in each game. They have allowed 80 or more four times in that span. 

Akron is arguably the best offense in the MAC. The Zips are averaging 1.14 points per possession, and this team can light it up from outside. Ball State is allowing opponents to shoot 40.1% from long range so far this year. 

Ball State is really pushing the tempo. They are playing at 76 possessions per game in the MAC. They should keep the action moving in this one.

The sharp money really likes the over here. While 55% of the bets are on the over, 95% of the money is on the over. That kind of a split has a very good long term win percentage.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Fairfield Stags rank 50th in the country in overall tempo. Fairfield changed the way they play last year. They had previously been a slow paced team, but picked up the pace in a big way. They have kept that quicker tempo going this year. 

Quinnipiac changed the way they play this year. The Bobcats are running as much as possible, and they rank 20th in the nation in terms of fastest pace. The Bobcats are an elite offensive rebounding team, but they send so many people to the offensive glass that they allow too many run out easy scores the other way. 

When these two get together the tempo should be extremely fast. 

The bets so far in this game are 50/50 on the over/under, but 96% of the money is on the over. That's a nice buy sign.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Temple Owls offense has scored 74 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Temple has been able to score efficiently on the worst defenses in the American Athletic Conference this year, and USF is definitely one of those teams.

USF has allowed at least 79 points in each of their last five games. They have allowed 85 points or more in three of those five contests. The Bulls are very poor at guarding the 3 ball, and Temple ranks in the top 50 in the country in most 3's attempted.

USF is pushing the pace consistently since Murray Bartow took over as the interim coach. They have been an "over" machine in his time here too. I'm not jumping off here.

Look for this one to go several points over the posted total. USF games are still being posted too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCSB Gauchos are dead last in the nation in effective field goal percentage. UCSB is shooting 26% from 3 point range and a miserable 39% from 2 point range in the league. 

UCSB is one of the 50 slowest paced teams in the country. They want to make this a sloppy low scoring game at home to have a chance.

UC Davis plays rather quickly, but they are the best defense in the Big West, and they are a poor offense. Davis held UCSB to 47 points in the first meeting.

I had this one at 130.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds are allowing almost 1.21 points per possession on the year. That is second worst in the country out of 351 teams. Idaho State isn't much better on defense. They are 340th in defensive efficiency out of 351 teams. They are allowing 1.17 points per game. 

Southern Utah has committed the third most fouls in the country, and Idaho State is pretty good at getting to the line. 

Both of these teams are terrible at defending beyond the 3 point arc, so don't be surprised if there are a bunch of made 3's in this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two played two high scoring games last year even though both played a slower pace last season. Both of these teams are struggling badly on defense, and they both foul a bunch. With this being a rivalry game, the officials are likely to have a quick whistle to keep things under control. Expect a bunch of trips to the line in this one.

Both teams have a lot of good 3 point shooters, and I think they will get plenty of open looks throughout in this one. Look for a close game with the number of trips to the free throw line pushing this over the total.

Take the over. 

*5 Star CBB Saturday's TOP Total* The UTEP Miners have the top ranked defense in Conference USA. They are allowing only 0.92 points per possession. MTSU has the third best defense in the conference at only 0.942 points per possession allowed. 

UTEP is 235th out of 351 teams in the country in tempo, so they prefer to play slowly. MTSU is 332nd in tempo, so they are a very slow paced team this year.

The tempo should stay low here, and with two really good defenses, it would take some rare tremendous shooting or a bunch of fouls to send this one over the total. 

I had this one at 126 points. I expect a hard fought game that stays under the total.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane aren't nearly as good on offense as they were last year. They are still very good on defense. Looking at the Cincinnati game from earlier this week gives us a good idea of how Tulsa wants to play against teams who are better than them. Tulsa wants to slow things down and make it a low scoring game. They don't have the offensive firepower to win games against the best teams in this conference if it is an 80-75 type game. 

Tulsa is also very reliant on getting to the free throw line, but SMU ranks in the top ten in the country in defending without fouling. The Mustangs should give Tulsa's offense a lot of trouble. 

SMU has been amazing on offense in general, but their numbers are quite a bit lower on the road. 

The under is 7-3 in SMU's last 10 road games. The under is 9-2 in Tulsa's last 11 as an underdog.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Quinnipiac Bobcats have been a good over team this year. They changed their tempo up from last year, and it has been hard for the oddsmakers to keep up. The Bobcats crash the offensive glass in a huge way. They get a bunch of second chance points, and they also give up a bunch of run out opportunities because everyone is crashing the offensive glass.

The first meeting between these two played out to a 81-78 final score. The numbers in that game were right about the averages for both teams, and I see a similar game here. I had this one at 160.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Kentucky Colonels are averaging only 0.934 points per possession in the Ohio Valley Conference. Eastern Kentucky is the second slowest paced team in the league. The Colonels are slowing things down because they just don't have the firepower to win games with their offense. Eastern Kentucky is third in the conference in defensive efficiency.

Tennessee Martin is the third slowest paced team in the conference and I project this pace at a slow mark of 67 possessions. 

Barring some very high shooting numbers, I like this one to stay under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* I played the over the first time these two met and it cashed comfortably. I'm going to play the over again here. Arkansas ranks 23rd in the country in quickest offensive possessions. Missouri is 86th in that same statistic. The first time these two got together the tempo was 73 possessions. I expect a similar tempo here.

In a game with that many possessions, it takes some really bad shooting numbers to not reach a total like this. Missouri definitely shoots the ball poorly, but both of these teams foul a bunch and both teams are good at getting to the line. Trips to the charity stripe should be a big help here. There were 54 free throws in the first matchup.

These two teams are 11th and 12th in the SEC in defensive efficiency, so the offenses will be going against much weaker defenses than normal. 

I have this one at 153.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Summit League is a conference where no one plays defense and everyone can shoot, but the top two offenses in the league are meeting in Denver here on Saturday. Denver is averaging a whopping 1.176 points per possession in league play. Fort Wayne isn't far behind at 1.165 points per possession.

These two met earlier this year and played to a 87-83 final score. They shot 44 and 42% from long range, but that is right about at their averages in league play. 

Also, there were only 26 free throws attempted in that first game. One would assume there will be more free throws than that in this game.

Quick tempo and two very good offenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are the two best defenses in the CAA. Elon is allowing 0.992 points per possession. College of Charleston is allowing 0.963 points per possession. These two played a game that finished at 120 points earlier this year. I had this one projected at 128. Charleston has had some higher scoring games lately, which pushed this total up. In those games, they were playing teams that wanted to run. Here, they play an Elon team that plays to the pace of their opponent. C of Charleston likes to slow the game down and should get their way with the pace. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Southern Eagles and Louisiana Monroe Warhawks met earlier this year and the final score was 62-60. I had the under in that one, and I'll take the under again here. If you look at Monroe's last 13 games, not a single one of them has gone over the posted total without going into overtime. This game isn't likely to go to overtime with GA Southern being a big favorite here. I had this one at 138. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* In this one, 13% of the bets are on the under, but 60% of the money is on the under. Eastern Illinois and Tennessee Tech are similar teams. Most of the teams in this conference push the tempo a lot, but these two prefer not to. The tempo should be kept down here, and neither team is very efficient on offense. I had this one at 139 points, and with the sharp money taking the under, I will as well. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTSA Roadrunners do a great job of making everything really sloppy. They are dead last in the nation in 3 point shooting percentage. They make less than 1/4 of their attempted 3 point jumpers. Ouch. At the same time, UTSA is much improved on defense this year, and on their home floor they have been particularly strong on defense.

UAB started slowly on defense, but this team has been good on defense in previous years, and they are playing well on defense right now. 

Neither team pushes the tempo very much, and I had this number at 132.

Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Play Total* The Xavier Musketeers lost Edmond Sumner to an injury last weekend. He averaged 15 points per game, and was their leading assists man. In the team's lone game without him, they played at a slower than average pace, and their offense looked a bit out of sorts.

Maurice Watson Jr. is out for the season for Creighton. He was the star point guard for the team. Watson averaged 12.9 points per game and 8.4 assists per contest. Without him, Creighton is definitely playing at a slower tempo.

This line was bet up early, and that gives us more value. I had this number at 153. I see both offenses being a little out of rhythm, and with a total set this high, it doesn't take much. 

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks are averaging 1.171 points per possession inside the conference. Now, they get to play against the worst defense in the conference. Arizona State might have the worst defense of any team in Power 5 conference this year. 

Arizona State is giving up 1.188 points per possession in the PAC 12. I think Oregon will rack up 1.20 points per possession or higher here. Arizona State likes to push the tempo, and Oregon was willing to play fast with both USC and UCLA.

Oregon should put up a big number here. Arizona State's offense ranks 44th in the nation in efficiency, and they should get enough to push this past the total.

In this game, 65% of the bets are on the over and 93% of the money is on the over. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is somewhat of a contrarian play. This could be one of those rare games where the public actually backs the under. Oregon State has been playing slowly this year, and Arizona absolutely has a great defense.

The thing that makes me like the over here is Oregon State's defense. When facing an offense that ranks in the top 75 in the nation in points per possession, Oregon State has allowed 1.19 points per possession. That's about as bad as you'll see. 

Arizona's offense has scored 77 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games (73 in the other). With Trier back in the lineup, this Cats offense is dangerous. Look for them to find a lot of open looks here.

Oregon State's offensive numbers have gotten better in recent games. This is a young team that is getting slightly better guard play of late, and I think they get us enough here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTSA Roadrunners are much better on defense this year. UTSA ranked 343rd in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 110th in the nation in that same category this year.

MTSU is playing four possessions per game slower than they did last season. MTSU ranks 48th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

UTSA's offense is brutal. They are dead last in 3 point shooting percentage in the country. They rank 345th in offensive efficiency. I can't imagine them scoring many on MTSU here.

I had this number at 126.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers and USF Bulls played a game a few weeks ago that finished at only 118 points. That has given us some good value on the over here.

What happened in the first game? The two teams shot their lowest field goal percentages of the year on a points per possession basis. There were also 41 turnovers. With statistics likely normalizing here, there is value on the over.

USF is playing completely differently under their interim head coach (Bartow). They were stalling earlier in the year, and now they are pushing the pace in a big way. USF has played 5 of its last 6 games to a tempo of 72 possessions or quicker. None of their 8 games before that was played to that tempo.

Memphis prefers to run and I think the Tigers can get out in transition here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't normally fade the steam too often, but I have to in this case. This number has gotten out of hand.

Oakland is a different team than last year. Oakland averaged 1.17 points per possession last year. This year they are averaging 0.99 points per possession. This is a very inefficient offense without Kay Felder. Oakland is a lot better on defense too. The Golden Grizzlies had a terrible defense last year (1.06 points per possession), and this year they are second in the league in defensive efficiency at 0.972 points per possession. Oakland has only had 3 lined games go over this total all year.

Youngstown State definitely runs, but they aren't all that efficient either, and they are improved on defense compared to last year. In their last 8 games, only one has gone over this total in regulation.

I'll fade the steam. 

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals CRUSHER* The Elon Phoenix host the James Madison Dukes here. Elon has been playing to the pace of their opponent all year long. James Madison is the slowest paced team in the CAA. The first meeting between these two finished at 60-59 and with a pace of only 59 possessions. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency, while they are both in the top half in defensive efficiency. In the first game, the shooting numbers were actually just slightly above average, but the pace was so low that the score stayed way under the posted total.

Of James Madison's last 17 games, only 3 have gone above this posted total. Also, 8 of Elon's last 13 totals have stayed under this posted total.

My numbers had this one at 126. It's very rare I see a line this late in the year 8 points off my number. I like the under here quite a bit.

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SMU Mustangs rank 337th out of 351 teams in the country in terms of tempo. This is a team that slows the game down drastically. East Carolina ranks toward the bottom in tempo too.

East Carolina is awful on offense. Their efficiency is about as bad as you'll ever find. East Carolina is averaging 0.846 points per possession inside the conference. 

SMU is going to grab the lead early here, and I like their ability to get a big lead and then slow the game down. They aren't a team who tries to run up the score by pushing the pace in any way.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Utah Jazz and Milwaukee Bucks both play at a very slow pace. Utah is the slowest paced team in the NBA for the year as a whole. Milwaukee plays more than 3 possessions slower on the road than they do at home, and Utah will look to control the tempo here. No reason to expect a quick pace.

The three referees assigned to this game are all very good long term under referees. Each of them has a history of calling less fouls than the average official, and they all have a long history in the league.

62% of the bets are on the under, but a whopping 90% of the money is on the under. I agree with the sharp money here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Eastern Kentucky Colonels went from the fastest paced team in the Ohio Valley Conference last year, to the second slowest paced team in the league this year. Eastern Kentucky is dead last by a wide margin in offensive efficiency in the OVC as well.

Austin Peay is a faster paced team, but they have still slowed things down a lot since the beginning of league play. Austin Peay is poor defensively, but they are up against a bad offense in this one. 

These two teams rank second and third in the league in least fouls committed. The tempo here shouldn't be very fast, and a total this high is usually reserved for either good offenses or really fast paced teams. Neither of those fit this game at all.

I have a high unders system I follow where you take a high under when the tempo of the home team is slow. That system is at 56% winners for the last five years. This one fits that system.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers have played three games all year that went over this posted total. I can't pass up an opportunity to play an under with Virginia at this level, especially when it is a rivalry game, which generally leads to lower scoring. 

Virginia Tech and Virginia met twice last year with one game finishing at 138 because of a foul fest late in the game. The other game finished at 116 points. Virginia has slowed their tempo down from last year, and they are even better on defense. I expect them to control the pace and win this contest.

I had this number at 130 points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles tend to play to the pace of their opponent, but they do prefer to play fast. St. John's is first in the Big East in tempo, and I expect this to be a very fast paced game.

These two teams played each other 3 times last year, and the slowest pace was 78 possessions, which is extremely quick. Both teams are more efficient on offense this season, and I expect both teams to be able to score quickly in this one.

A fast pace with two solid offenses. I had this one at 167 points. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Wyoming Cowboys play way faster than any other team in the Mountain West. Wyoming is playing at a pace of 76.5 possessions per game in the conference. 

San Diego State certainly slows the tempo down, but the Aztecs aren't nearly as good on defense as they have been in past years. The Aztecs allowed 0.864 and 0.894 points per possession in the last two years, but this year they are at 0.969 points per possession allowed. 

San Diego State isn't as good on defense, and their offense got a nice boost recently when Malik Pope came back in the lineup. Pope scored 19 points in their last game.

It is always a little tricky taking overs with San Diego State, but given their opponent and their worse defense this year, the value is there.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Wisconsin Badgers are still great at forcing the opposition to play their style of basketball. Wisconsin ranks 337th out of 351 in tempo nationwide. This is a team that is very efficient on offense, but they slow the pace down every single game.

Illinois has slowed things down in recent games. While the Fighting Illini were pushing the tempo early this year, they have slowed down the pace against their last two opponents. I don't think Illinois will be able to push the issue here.

Wisconsin is great at getting the lead and taking the air out of the ball. The Badgers are clearly the better team here, and I think they'll have a lead throughout this one.

My numbers made this game 129 points. The Badgers should dictate the tempo. Wisconsin's strong defense and slow tempo should hold this under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals have picked up the tempo in a big way this year. They rank second in the MAC in overall pace. Ball State is averaging 76 possessions per game. The Cardinals have scored 84 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. Ball State has a bunch of guys who can score, and I don't think this Toledo defense will be able to stop them.

Toledo ranks 10th in the MAC in defensive efficiency and 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency. The Rockets are good at getting to the line, and they should get quite a few trips there against a Ball State team that fouls more than the average team.

I see the pace being quick and the shooting percentages being high here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have the worst defense in the MAC. Western Michigan is allowing 1.18 points per possession in conference play. On the other hand, Western Michigan has been excellent on offense, especially on their home court. Western Michigan has scored 90, 92, and 80 points in their three home games in the MAC. This is a team that shoots the ball much better at home.

Ohio lost Antonio Campbell, but their outside shooting has been tremendous since he has gone out of the lineup. The Bobcats are playing even faster recently, and I think they'll push the pace throughout this game.

While only 66% of the bets are on the over, 99% of the money in this game is on the over. I have a system I'm tracking on how well splits like that do, and in the past couple years when the sharp action is that strong toward the over, it has cashed 61% of the time.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Monroe Warhawks do a great job turning a game into a low scoring affair. They slow the game down. They shoot the ball terribly from the floor. In fact, Monroe is averaging less than 0.89 points per possession in conference play. Monroe is a pretty good defensive team though.

Little Rock is their opponent here, and Little Rock slows the game down as well. The first game between these two was 134 in regulation, but both of them shot a much better number than their season shooting averages.

Monday has been the best day in college hoops for unders in the past ten years, especially when it is a game with a quick turnaround. 

Both teams played Saturday and I see this number being a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB Sunday TOP Play SMASHER* The Bradley Braves gave up 100 points the first time they played Wichita State this year. Wichita State has scored 85, 88, and 100 points on them in their last three meetings. 

I don't see any reason to expect Wichita State to slow down offensively in this one. The Shockers are playing faster on offense than any other team in the Missouri Valley Conference. Remember how good last year's Wichita State team was? This team is much better on offense. They are also not as strong on defense, which obviously helps the over.

Bradley is a below average defense, and the Braves are the fourth quickest paced team in the Missouri Valley Conference. I don't expect to see them stalling here, especially since they should be at a big deficit early. 

Bradley does get to the line a lot, and Wichita State is fouling more than the average team. Bradley should get quite a few freebies at the stripe.

I had this one at 145 points. I rarely get 7 points of value from my number, especially this late in the year. I like this one quite a bit. Take the over big. 

*3 Star Cavs/Thunder NBA MONEY* The Cleveland Cavs and Oklahoma City Thunder meet on Sunday afternoon on ABC. Sunday day games have hit at 55% to the under in the past ten years in the NBA. Yesterday, every single game on the NBA schedule went over the posted total. 

Oklahoma City is now without Enes Kanter who is out with an injury. Kanter has been a consistent double digit scorer for the team, and his loss has to hurt the offense. Russell Westbrook already has to do a lot for the Thunder on offense, and now his load gets even heavier.

The under is a stunning 78-34-3 in Cleveland's last 115 Sunday games, so they have been one of the strongest Sunday under teams. 

With a total set this high, and OKC having question marks on offense without Kanter, I'm taking the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Atlanta Hawks host the New York Knicks in a Sunday afternoon game. Atlanta is 8-2 to the under in their last 10 Sunday games. New York is 19-7 to the under in their last 26 games. Sunday has consistently been the best under day in the NBA in the past ten years, and that has been the case again this year.

Yesterday, every single NBA game that was played went over the posted total. That kind of thing usually leads to some value on the under in the following day or days. 

The Knicks are likely to be without Derrick Rose in this one. New York is playing at the 25th fastest tempo in the NBA, which means a total set this high is hard for them to reach without some great offense.

Atlanta's defense is slightly better at home and the Knicks have actually been better on the road on the defensive end.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Titans changed their style of play a few games ago. They are now using a full court press and trying to create scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers. Basically, their halfcourt defense was so horrendous, they had to do something else. 

Detroit has seen three of their last five games top the 180 point mark since they changed their style of play.

Wisconsin Green Bay is always willing to run. In fact, Green Bay uses only 13.9 seconds of the shot clock on average, which puts their tempo on offense at fourth quickest out of 351 teams in the country.

This one is a game that should see huge point totals for both teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Michigan/Michigan State TV Totals CASH* The Michigan State Spartans aren't all that good this year. This is one of Tom Izzo's worst teams in recent memory. Having said that, I have to believe the team shows up ready to play in what is a really important game for them.

There are a couple key long term systems that make me like this under. Big Ten teams that are both on an over streak of 1-4 games have a 59% rate to the under in their next game. How about when looking at only totals of 131 or higher? Then that number becomes a 90-48 mark to the under, or a 65% cashing clip. 

Also, teams that have shot the kind of percentage Michigan did last game against Indiana often crash back down to earth in their next game. Michigan shot a ridiculous 63.3% from the floor last game. They should have a harder time on offense here.

Both teams prefer to play slow, and I had this one at 133.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Kentucky Colonels have changed the way they play. Eastern Kentucky was a really fast paced team last year, and they started the season looking like a fast paced team again. 

As the season has gone along and they have been short handed from injuries, Eastern Kentucky has dramatically slowed down their pace. They are averaging less than 0.89 points per possession, which makes them the least efficient offense in the OVC. 

Tennessee Tech does play relatively quickly, but they aren't efficient on offense either, and they are the 4th best defense in the conference. 

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee State Tigers and Belmont Bruins have the two best defenses in the Ohio Valley Conference. Tennessee State needs to slow the game down to have a real chance against a team like Belmont. The Bruins would be fine with a high scoring affair, but I don't think Tennessee State will run with them on their home floor.

While only about 15% of the bets are on the under here, about half of the money is on the under. I had this one at 137, and I believe the sharp side here is the under.

I'm taking the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Totals CRUSHER* The Butler Bulldogs have been extremely consistent with their tempo this year. When I look to play an under, I want to make sure a team has consistently played at the same pace, and Butler has been the picture of consistency. 

The only thing that has made some Butler games much higher scoring has been a very high shooting percentage. In this game though, we have two teams who are in the top 51 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

Georgetown likes to play quickly, but they are the second least efficiency offense in the Big East. I think this Butler defense will do a good job slowing them down.

Despite higher than average shooting performances from both teams in the first game, the total was 136 at the end of regulation.

I had this one at 138, and I see good value on the under.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Over* Western Illinois is an interesting team. The Leathernecks started the season out moving slowly, but they have consistently played faster in the conference. Each of their last four games have been played at a blistering fast pace of 75 possessions or faster. 

IUPUI has been playing fast all year. The Jaguars are coming off a game where they allowed 103 points in a loss to Fort Wayne. IUPUI put up 89 points in an 89-71 win at home earlier this year against Western Illinois. 

No team in the nation (351 teams) has defended the 3 point line worse than Western Illinois. IUPUI is shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc.

Both of these teams struggle to defend without fouling. 

My numbers had this game at 156. I see fouls late being a boost in this one as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls play quickly, but they are much better on defense than on offense. The Bulls average less than 1 point per possession and are unlikely to be able to score with Akron here.

Akron has shown over the season that they are happy to slow the game down once they get a lead, and I expect them to be playing with the lead during this game. The Zips shoot the ball well, but Buffalo is one of the best defenses in the conference.

Both of these teams played faster last year, and yet all 3 of their games went under this posted total last season.

I think this line should be 147, so I'll take the value with the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas Jayhawks and Kentucky Wildcats square off in Rupp Arena tonight. Kentucky ranks 10th in the country in pace this year. Why wouldn't the Cats run at all chances? With the athleticism they have all over the court, this team is built to run. De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk make one of the best backcourt tandems there has been in college basketball in the last few years.

Kansas ranks in the top 100 in tempo as well. The Jayhawks rank 5th in the nation in offensive efficiency, but only 39th in defensive efficiency. Kentucky is 2nd in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency. 

I'm not confident in Kansas' ability slow down Kentucky at all here. I think Kentucky puts up a big number. In these non-conference games late in the year, the over has hit at about 55-56% long-term.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Jacobi Boykins is expected to miss this game after getting in a fight last game. He is Louisiana Tech's best long range shooter. MTSU's defense is really good on the interior, and I think it will hurt LA Tech to not have a guy on the outside that shoots 45% from long range. 

LA Tech ranks number one in defensive efficiency in Conference USA. The Bulldogs are playing significantly slower than they did a year ago as well.

MTSU is excellent on both offense and defense. The Blue Raiders are favored by 9 here, and I expect them to grab the lead and slow the game down. MTSU has held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 57 points or less.

I had this one totaled at 132. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns have been playing very fast of late. Earlier in the season, the Longhorns were playing games at 63 and 65 possessions regularly, but in their recent games the Longhorns have been playing at 73-75 possessions. 

Shaka Smart's team finally seems comfortable playing at the kind of tempo he wanted them to play at all along. That has given bettors a lot of value taking the over of late. Consistently, we have seen money pour in on the over, and it has been the right play. I'm playing this one early because of that.

Georgia plays at an average tempo and plays to the pace of their opponent. The Bulldogs are good at getting to the line and they should make plenty of trips to the line in this one.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of Week* The Eastern Washington Eagles and Montana State Bobcats are two very different teams this year compared to last season. 

Both teams are far less efficient on offense than they were last year. Eastern Washington is averaging 1.135 points per possession (still good) on offense in the conference this year compared to 1.169 last year. Montana State is averaging 1.05 points per possession this year compared to 1.098 points per possession last year. 

Montana State allowed 1.078 points per possession last year in the conference on the defensive end. They are allowing only 1.034 per possession this year. Eastern Washington allowed a whopping 1.094 last year on defense, and this year they are allowing only 1.00 points per possession.

Eastern Washington is also playing five possessions slower than they did last year. This game is lined like it was a game between these two last season. 

The earlier meeting this year went to 146 points despite one team shooting over 60% from the floor. 

I had this one lined at 147 points. Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen host the George Mason Patriots on Saturday afternoon. The first game between these two was very telling. It was played at a very fast paced of 76. The shooting numbers were just a little above average, but they were nothing dramatic. The final score in that game was 86-81.

UMass is the fastest paced team in the Atlantic 10. They are the 13th fastest team in the country. George Mason is playing much faster inside the conference than I would have expected. They are the third fastest team pace wise in the A 10.

No reason to expect anything other than a very fast tempo again.

I had this one lined at 154 points. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I'm impressed with the job Josh Pastner has done at Georgia Tech this year. Pastner is switching up defenses constantly, and he has gotten his GA Tech team to buy into his system right away. 

Notre Dame is a good offense, but they aren't as good as they were the last couple years offensively. The Fighting Irish are much better on defense than they have been in recent years.

Georgia Tech ranks in the bottom 75 teams in the country when it comes to effective field goal percentage offense, but they are in the top 25 in defensive field goal percentage. 

Both teams rank in the top 31 in the country in least fouls committed. Both play at a slow tempo. I think this is a close game that stays under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are very good at controlling the tempo. Fordham averages only 66 possessions per game. Davidson is playing at an average pace this year, and they have played to the pace of their opponent throughout the year. 

Fordham upset Davidson on the road by slowing the game down and making it an ugly contest. The Rams will look to do that again here. Davidson's shooting numbers have been way down this year, and Fordham is great at forcing turnovers. I don't see Davidson being all that efficient on offense.

The Rams offense isn't good, and Davidson is much improved on defense. 

Take the under in this early game. 

*4 Star TGIF College Hoops CRUSHER* The Valparaiso Crusaders host the Wright State Raiders on Friday night. Valparaiso has the number one ranked offense in the conference when it comes to offensive efficiency. Wright State ranks third in the conference in offensive efficiency.

An important part of this play to me is both teams ability to get to the free throw line. Valparaiso is first in trips to the line in the conference, and Wright State is number two. What about their ability to convert at the line? Valparaiso is shooting an amazing 81.6% at the line this year which is second in the nation. Inside the conference they are shooting 82.8%. Wright State is shooting 75.6% from the line, which ranks in the top 40 in the country.

Wright State plays a little quicker than the average team, and Valparaiso is right around the average mark. 

Both teams are good on offense and great at the line, and the spread is at 9, where late fouling is definitely possible. I'll take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Long Beach State 49ers have been running like crazy in conference play. They are putting shots up on average after only 15 seconds. Long Beach is coming off a game against Cal Poly where it was 89-89 going into overtime. What's wild about that is the fact that Long Beach was able to get a very slow paced team like Cal Poly to run that much.

There's more evidence of Long Beach forcing the issue no matter the opponent. Long Beach was in a 91-91 game against slow paced Hawaii at the end of regulation. They also finished off an 81-76 win against very slow paced UCSB.

There's no way Long Beach State slows down here, and in this game Cal State Fullerton is the opponent and they play at an above average tempo. Fullerton excels at getting to the line, and Long Beach definitely fouls more than the average team. At the same time, Fullerton commits a bunch of fouls on defense. Trips to the charity stripe should help a lot in this one.

The spread here is 6.5, which is right in the perfect range for a late fouling fest. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM TOP Total* Austin Peay hosts Tennessee Martin and this under the radar game will be on CBS Sports Network on Thursday night. These two teams never get games on national television, so this is a big deal for them. In general, over the years I've found television games for smaller conferences to be slightly lower scoring than the average games. The shooting numbers often go down a bit when the bright lights are on them, at least when they aren't accustomed to it.

Playing the under when the total is this high has been a good move more times than not in college basketball over the years. Everything has to go right for the total to get this high. These are two bad defenses, and that is certainly a risk here. 

On the other hand, Tennessee Martin has slowed down drastically inside the conference. The Skyhawks were averaging 70.5 possessions per game in the non-conference schedule, but they are all the way down to 65.9 inside the conference. Austin Peay is playing at 71 possessions. 

These two teams foul less on defense than any other teams in the conference, so barring a terrible draw with refs that want the spotlight on them, there shouldn't be a lot of fouls in this game. 

TN Martin hasn't had an OVC game go over this total all season (7 games). Only two of Austin Peay's have gone over this total in regulation. 

Sometimes, you have to draw a line in the sand. These aren't great under teams, but this line is just too high by several points.

I had this one at 157. 

Take the under big! 

*4 Star Play Over* The Charlotte 49ers are a really high scoring team, and they are great at dictating the tempo. Charlotte will run as they always do. The 49ers are playing at a blazing fast 75.1 possessions per game in the conference. North Texas experimented with slowing things down in the non-conference slate, but they are back to running now. The Mean Green are averaging 71 possessions per game. This game should be played at a very quick tempo.

Charlotte is number one in the conference in 3 point shooting, and N Texas isn't very good on defense. North Texas is good at getting to the line, and Charlotte commits more than the average number of fouls. 

Charlotte beat N Texas 101-76 in a game played to a pace of 82 possessions earlier this year.

I had this one at 159. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners have a way of making every game they play in really ugly. They aren't good at all on offense, and they are good on defense. UTEP also looks to slow the pace down.

UTEP has played in six straight games that have gone below this posted total in regulation. The Miners are second in the conference in defensive efficiency and last in offensive efficiency. 

Both UTEP and Western Kentucky prefer to slow the game down, and I think this game will have a slow tempo. Unless these teams shoot a much higher percentage from the floor than normal, I don't see this one going over. 

I had this one 136 points. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears and Texas Tech Red Raiders are the two slowest paced teams in the Big 12.

Baylor has the best defense in the Big 12, and they rank sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. I don't see Texas Tech's offense having much success here. The Red Raiders put up only 56 points in their trip to Ames to take on Iowa State who is a top defense as well. 

Baylor has shown consistently that they are willing to grab a lead and then slow down the pace. I think they'll get the lead early on here, and then coast to the finish with a slower paced game. I'll be surprised if Texas Tech gets to 60 points here.

I had this number at 129 points. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ohio State Buckeyes have seen only one conference game go under this posted total, and that was by a single point against Nebraska. Most teams in the Big Ten prefer to slow things down, but both Ohio State and Minnesota prefer uptempo basketball.

The Buckeyes defense was good in the non-conference schedule, but they are allowing almost 1.09 points per possession in Big Ten play. 

The first game between these two was 78-68, so it easily passed up this total. The shooting numbers were nothing better than average either, and there were a lot of missed free throws.

I had this line at 139. With the initial line drop, there's too much value to pass up. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'll be the first to admit that playing an over with UConn is tough to do. However, they are up against a South Florida team that has completely changed the way they play since Murray Bartow took over a few games ago as their head coach. 

USF was consistently playing to a pace of about 65 possessions before he took over, and now they have been at 72 possessions or faster in 4 of their last 5 games. The final total in USF's last five games has been 146 points or higher in 4 of their last 5 games as well.

UConn's offense has improved quite a bit of late, and I think they'll be able to get quite a few open looks against this poor USF defense.

The spread here is right at the margin where fouling late in the game is a real possibility also.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Totals SMASHER* The Virginia Cavs are the slowest paced team in the country. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are significantly slower than the average team as well.

Notre Dame and Virginia met up last year and the final was 77-66. The tempo in that game was 58. What does that mean? It means that both teams shot a ridiculous percentage from the floor in that contest. Notre Dame scored 1.14 points per possession in that game. Virginia scored an insane 1.33 points per possession in that contest.

Virginia ranks exactly the same as last year in defense, and they are one of the top seven defenses in defensive efficiency in the nation. Notre Dame ranked 158th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year, but they are 62nd this year. It's unlikely these two teams will shoot the percentage they did last year.

This should be a close game throughout, and both of these teams excel at defending without fouling, which is a big plus in today's era where referees can get whistle happy very quickly.

My projected number here was 130, and I don't get many 6 point differences this time of the year. 

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas are 5th in the nation in scoring at 89.3 points per game. They are also 340th in points per game allowed at 83.4. While this total is extremely high, it's more than justified.Central Michigan's average final total is 173 points.

Central Michigan is 8th in the country in pace. The Chippewas will force the tempo at all times. In this one, they are playing against a Bowling Green team that ranks in the top 20% in the country in terms of tempo. The pace should be lightning quick here. I think we will see somewhere around 79 or 80 possessions in this game. 

I have a system I have tracked on high overs. With two teams playing in the top 20% in the country in tempo and one team in the top 5% in the country in 3 point FG percentage, the over is 37-22 in the last 59 games when the total is 165.5 or higher (63%). This one fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls and Miami Ohio Redhawks meet in Oxford, Ohio on Tuesday night. Miami is allowing 1.15 points per possession on the defensive end. The Redhawks commit the most fouls of any team in the conference. 

Here, they are playing against a Buffalo team that plays at a pace of 74 possessions per game. They want to run early and often. The Bulls commit the third most fouls of any team in the MAC. While Buffalo's offense has struggled with efficiency this year, playing against a defense as bad as Miami should help that problem.

I have a pace pairs system I have backtested which is a system of teams playing at a similar pace of play in the range of these two teams and with a total of 128 to 148.5. That system has produced 145 overs and 84 unders in the past six years (63.3%). 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Sunday Night SMASHER* The USC Trojans are 43rd in the nation in quickest possessions on offense. Arizona State has the worst defense in a power five conference. The Sun Devils are allowing a ridiculous 1.218 points per possession in Pac 12 play. 

USC hasn't been all that efficient on offense in Pac 12 play, but they have played some great defenses. This defense is the worst, and I think USC will look much better on offense in this spot.

Arizona State is much more efficient on offense than last year, and they are playing a lot quicker as well. Arizona State is averaging 1.13 points per possession this year, and they are 48th in overall tempo. 

A high scoring game all the way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Historically, Sunday is by far and away the best day to play unders in the NBA. That is especially the case when they are afternoon or earlier than usual games for the teams. In the past ten years alone, if you played every single under in the NBA on Sunday that starts at 6 pm eastern or earlier, you would have cashed 54.8% of the time. That's a pretty decent edge, and when you combine it with other factors, I like this under.

Phoenix was playing at the fastest pace in the NBA for a while, but they have drastically changed the way they play of late. The Suns rank 27th in the league (4th slowest) in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. Some high shooting numbers have allowed 5 of the 10 to go over, but I see this as giving us extra value on the under.

A total set this high is hard to attain when one team is slowing the game down.

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* Historically, Sunday is by far and away the best day to play unders in the NBA. That is especially the case when they are afternoon or earlier than usual games for the teams. In the past ten years alone, if you played every single under in the NBA on Sunday that starts at 6 pm eastern or earlier, you would have cashed 54.8% of the time. 

The under is 7-0 in Dallas' last 7 Sunday games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the Lakers and the Mavericks. 

The Lakers have been a great over team at home, but they are even on the road in over/unders. Dallas is playing at the slowest tempo of any team in the NBA in the past ten games. The Mavericks are also last in the NBA in trips to the free throw line. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The VCU Rams always want to push the tempo. LaSalle has been playing to the pace of their opponent of late. I think VCU will be able to get them to play quickly.

LaSalle has been shooting the ball remarkably well for a really long time now. The Explorers have a star in Jordan Price, and he has made this offense very efficient. LaSalle ranks 20th in the nation in offensive efficiency.

I had this total at 158 points, and I think both offenses have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Titans have changed their style of play of late. Detroit is now using an aggressive full court press and looking to create turnovers. They are creating turnovers, but they are also creating a bunch of easy looks in transition as well as free throw opportunities for their opponents. 

Detroit has sent teams to the line more than any other team in the country in their last three games. Northern Kentucky should live at the line here. At the same time, Detroit should get some steals and quick baskets because Northern Kentucky doesn't have great ball handlers.

Take the over.